Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/12/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
355 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY. CURRENT 24 HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE RUNNING DOWN AROUND 3-9 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A VERY DRY SYSTEM...INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW IS SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE THERE COULD BE SOME LSOLATED DRY LIGHTNING BUT NOT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. NAMDNG5 AND HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY THROUGH 2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO TRACK INLAND...MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL TROUGHY PATTERN OVER THE REGION...CONTINUING A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND CLIMO BY FRIDAY AND HOVERING NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. JUST A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST. && .AVIATION... SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... PLEASE SEE SFOAQAHNX THE VALLEY AIR DISTRICT HAS ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR SAN JOAQUIN...STANISLAUS...MERCED...FRESNO...KINGS...AND THE VALLEY PORTION OF KERN COUNTIES FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO BLOWING DUST CAUSED BY WINDY CONDITIONS. EXPOSURE TO PARTICLE POLLUTION CAN CAUSE SERIOUS HEALTH PROBLEMS... AGGRAVATE LUNG DISEASE... CAUSE ASTHMA ATTACKS AND ACUTE BRONCHITIS AND INCREASE RISK OF RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS. IN PEOPLE WITH HEART DISEASE... SHORT-TERM EXPOSURE TO PARTICLE POLLUTION HAS BEEN LINKED TO HEART ATTACKS AND ARRHYTHMIAS...ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY. CHILDREN AND ELDERLY PEOPLE ARE ALSO MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONSEQUENCES OF HIGH PARTICULATE LEVELS. STAY INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. AVOID PROLONGED OR STRENUOUS OUTDOOR PHYSICAL ACTIVITIES TO REDUCE THE AFFECTS OF UNHEALTHY AIR. && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR KFAT 06-10 106:1986 65:1976 70:1939 46:1954 KFAT 06-11 106:1979 71:1894 72:1918 47:1894 KFAT 06-12 107:1985 66:1998 73:1985 47:1952 KBFL 06-10 107:1975 73:1976 74:1975 45:1954 KBFL 06-11 109:1979 73:1963 75:1975 42:1913 KBFL 06-12 110:1979 63:1998 75:1979 38:1907 && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ089-091-092. && $$ PUBLIC...JEB AVN/FW...JEB SYNOPSIS...PJ WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1220 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .UPDATE...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAMDNG5 INDICATE THAT GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO BOTH LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AS THESE TWO HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THE EARLIER FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY. && .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA REGION TODAY BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ALONG THE WEST COAST BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS AS WELL AS RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON MONDAY IS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SOCAL COAST NEAR 34N/124W PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE SOCAL COAST. 00Z AND 06Z WRF RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOCAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A COOLING TREND BY 4-7 DEG F TODAY AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES LOWER ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS WILL STILL HAVE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER IMPACT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE FOR OUR AREA IS THAT IT WILL PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND ALONG THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WV IMAGERY AND RH PROGS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE....THE 06Z WRF INDICATES CAPES OF 800 TO 1200 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI/S BETWEEN -4 AND -1 DEG C WHILE SPC HAS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA IN A GENERAL RISK AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AM CONCERNED THAT WITH THE MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE BEING MAINLY HIGH BASED THAT DRY LIGHTING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE COOLING TREND CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO FALL. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS IT WILL BE TODAY AS THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH LIFT. BY THURSDAY A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW WHICH WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MID JUNE AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR CROSS OUR AREA. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY IN KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION... SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PREV DISC... /ISSUED 1129 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014/ && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ON TUESDAY JUNE 10 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS AND MADERA COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR KFAT 06-10 106:1986 65:1976 70:1939 46:1954 KFAT 06-11 106:1979 71:1894 72:1918 47:1894 KFAT 06-12 107:1985 66:1998 73:1985 47:1952 KBFL 06-10 107:1975 73:1976 74:1975 45:1954 KBFL 06-11 109:1979 73:1963 75:1975 42:1913 KBFL 06-12 110:1979 63:1998 75:1979 38:1907 && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ089-091-092. && $$ PUBLIC...RILEY/JEB AVN/FW...JEB SYNOPSIS...PJ WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
713 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 703 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS MOVED OFF INTO KANSAS. A COOL AND MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE FROM 8 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH APPEARS IS BEING PRODUCED BY A WAVE ALONG THE COLORADO-UTAH BORDER. WILL KEEP 20-40 POPS IN THE THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THIS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TOO. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 TONIGHT...A MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. OVERALL THE STORMS THERE WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH GOOD STORM MOTIONS OF 20KT OR MORE. GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THE FRONT SETTLES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT HAVE PRODUCE MORE WIND AND BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. AS THEY MOVE INTO DEEPER MOISTURE THAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE EAST OF DENVER...BETWEEN INTERSTATE 76 AND 70. HAIL UP TO ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN ISSUE...COULD SEE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL...UP TO ONE INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. ON FRIDAY...AMS FAIRLY DRY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. FURTHER EAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FOOTHILLS BELOW 7K FT AND OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. IT MAY BE TOO STABLE FOR TSTMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS...BUT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A FEW STORMS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS THURSDAY EVENING. EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...AIRMASS LOOKING A BIT TOO CAPPED FOR ANY CONVECTION...PERHAPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.65 INCHES ALONG FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR WITH CLOUDS TO 0.50 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SOME STORMS ALONG FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS AIRMASS STABILIZES FURTHER WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND RH PROGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LATEST SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECASTS INDICATING SPREADS HAVE INCREASED A BIT...ENOUGH TO DROP THE MENTION OF THE PATCHY FOG. ON FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SO LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE A DRY LINE CLOUD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DRY LINE COULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR SOME HAIL. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. WARMER AIRMASS WITH HIGHS WARMING IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY SATURDAY AS MODELS BRING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WYOMING WHICH HELP WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. WILL BOOST THE POPS SLIGHTLY THERE. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ON SUNDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH A COOLER AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COOLER LOW LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HELP WITH CONVECTION. FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HANDLING THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE GFS A BIT SLOWER. IN ANY CASE IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH FOR MUCH IMPACT ON COLORADO. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR. LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT ROBUST WITH THE COOLER AIR THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL BE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY A 5 TO 7 DEGREE COOL DOWN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 703 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AT THE DENVER AIRPORTS THROUGH 06Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM WITH CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 2000 FEET. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR FOG FROM 10Z TO 15Z. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE LESS...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM...BEST CHANCE BEING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 STORM MOTIONS GREATER THAN 20 KTS THIS EVENING SO THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOW. BETTER MOISTURE THURSDAY BUT GREATER STABILITY AS WELL SO THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN LOW. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY HELP INCREASE THE SNOW MELT AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING FAST WITH LEVELS REMAINING FAIRLY HIGH. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RIVERS AND STREAM LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH WITH NOT MUCH IMPACT FROM THE STORMS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MEIER SHORT TERM...COOPER LONG TERM...D-L AVIATION...MEIER HYDROLOGY...COOPER/D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
724 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMETIME NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 7PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. INITIAL BAND OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP AHEAD OF SLOWING WARM FRONT WELL TO THE S AND WITHIN THE S FLOW FROM SLOWLY EXITING RIDGE...HAS DIMINISHED AS IT ENTERED E MA AND RI WHERE HIGHER DWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE FOUND. GIVEN THIS...WILL LOWER OVERALL POPS FOR THE EVENING TIMEFRAME...BLENDING THEM TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS IN THE INTERIOR FROM ANY REMNANT CONVECTION WHICH MAY FIRE UPSTREAM IN PA/NY...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT...BUT WITH DWPTS IN THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY MITIGATING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WAY FROM S COASTAL LOCATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ARE SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE AREA AT PRESS TIME...DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR LATER TONIGHT. AREA OF SHOWERS DRIVEN BY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PVA IS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAP MODEL IS HANDLING THIS WELL AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A HARTFORD- PROVIDENCE-BOSTON LINE. OVERALL...THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIER AIR SITUATED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND EXPECT IT TO EXIT THE REGION AROUND 00Z. WITH REGARD TO FOG POTENTIAL...NOTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 12Z TODAY INVOF NANTUCKET WITH VISIBILITY BRIEFLY DOWN TO 2SM. FEEL CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /ESPECIALLY NANTUCKET/ WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...W/MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...INDICATIVE OF A WARMER AIR MASS OVER COOLER SSTS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY BOTH MAV/MET GUIDANCE. AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST...A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT OVER THE INTERIOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN OVER THIS AREA WILL BECOME SATURATED BY 06Z WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST OVER NEW YORK STATE BEGINS TO INDUCE A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WHICH NOSES INTO NW MA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD...AND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE LIMITED. THEREFORE... IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET CONVECTION GOING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. WITH THE COMBINATION OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND ONSHORE FLOW... EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THU NIGHT-FRI * SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS * MAINLY DRY AND WARMER SUN INTO MON * NEXT BEST SHOT FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUE INTO WED DETAILS... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BOUTS OF MID LEVEL LIFT...WHICH WILL COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THEREFORE...ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A VERY LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT. PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE SOME INSTABILITY WILL GIVE THE ACTIVITY A BOOST. WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THINGS NOT LOOKING THAT GREAT. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY UNDER 30 KNOTS WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IF CAPES CAN REACH UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. SATURDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON SKY COVER AND HOW LONG ANY SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF IS BY FAR THE SLOWEST MODEL AND ACTUALLY LINGERS PRECIPITATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WE WON/T GO THAT SLOW...BUT HAVE THE CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME SUN SHOULD EMERGE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT LOTS OF CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN ESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S...BUT PERHAPS ONLY IN THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF FRONT MOVES SLOWER. AGAIN...THIS FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND WILL DEPEND UPON HOW FAST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...BUT WEAK GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SO AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST...BUT STILL A BEAUTIFUL DAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HOT PATTERN...THE SETUP WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR WARM WEATHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. DECENT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST TWO DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BREAKING 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW A FEW SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...BUT PROBABLY WILL SEE A ROUND OR TWO OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE BEST SHOT FOR THIS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT BUT STILL SOMETHING WE MAY NEED TO CONTEND WITH AT TIMES. ALSO...BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE... SO PERHAPS MORE IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF VFR EVERYWHERE GIVES WAY TO SOME MVFR...CONDITIONS BUT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI/MA DUE TO FOG AND LOWER VSBYS...FOR THE INTERIOR EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO MOVE FROM SW- NE ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z. SOME TERMINALS IN E MA...SE NH MAY REMAIN VFR UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR...AND ANY E-SE WINDS UP TO 15 KT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TO START AND IN THE INTERIOR OF MA/CT/RI AND FOG CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST. SOME OF THIS MAY LIFT TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE MORNING AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHERS REMAIN MVFR IN LOWER CIGS. AFTERNOON -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR MA/CT DURING THE AFTERNOON. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHRA THU AFTN. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THU AFTN. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL THEY MAY PERSIST LONGER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 7PM UPDATE... HAVE DROPPED SMALL SEAS SCA BUT WILL HOIST SCA FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS STARTING AT 14Z THU. SCA SEAS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO ISSUE SCA AFTER CURRENT ONE EXPIRES THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAY REDUCE VSBYS. THIS FOG COULD ALSO LINGER INTO THURSDAY. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. SCA HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED IN THIS REGION. AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFT OVER SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL RESULT IN SOME 5 FOOT SEAS LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OUR OUTER-ATLANTIC WATERS INTO SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT TO SEAS TO BE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK NEAR TERM...DOODY/99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY/99 MARINE...FRANK/DOODY/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
137 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 05Z REFLECTIVITY INDICATING DEVELOPING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS FORMING OFF THE COAST OF NJ ALONG A WEAK ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AND UNDER A PASSING WEAK VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE. WEAK ELY FLOW WILL SLOWLY TAKE THE STORMS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. CONVERGENCE PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD ACT AS THE TRIGGERING POINT FOR ISO-SCT SHOWERS...WITH THE 03Z HRRR AND 00Z MESO RUNS FOLLOWING THIS TREND. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISO-SCT WORDING WITH ISO TSTM TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 12Z. AS FOR TEMPS...THE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DIURNAL RANGES SMALL WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH THE UPPER 60S NYC METRO. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE WARM...MOIST AIR COMING ACROSS THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE COAST...WITH PATCHY FOG INLAND. SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK TROF TO THE WEST...A DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE...AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALL POINT TO SCT CONVECTION ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUE AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BE A SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT...INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO PINPOINT A TIME AND/OR LOCATION FOR CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...THE STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK. OTHERWISE...WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO AROUND 80 NYC METRO AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES FROM SMITH POINT EAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... BACKDOOR CDFNT PASSES EARLY WED. THIS BRINGS IN SOME STABLE ELY COMPONENT FLOW. TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE SOLID LLVL MOISTURE...THEN ANOTHER LAYER OF DEEPER MOISTURE ABV H5. NO INSTABILITY OF NOTE. THIS SETUP WOULD GENERALLY YIELD A DRY/SPRINKLES FCST...BUT WITH THE APPROACHING TROF AND RESIDUAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...LEFT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA IN THE FCST. IF UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST...THE MAINLY DRY DAY COULD VERIFY. THE BOUNDARY S OF THE REGION RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT THU. TIMING ATTM IS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TIMING IS CRITICAL...WITH THE BEST CAPE ACCORDING TO CURRENT PROGS LURKING SW OF THE CWA WITH A BRN AROUND 45. THERE WILL BE A SVR THREAT IN THAT SECTOR. AS A RESULT...CANNOT RULE OUT A SVR THREAT THU AFTN ESPECIALLY NRN NJ IF THE FRONTAL TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE A LITTLE FASTER. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...SO TSTMS SHOULD BLOSSOM DURING THE DAY. TOO FAR OUT FOR THE MESOSCALE DATA...BUT THE GFS GIVES 25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND SOME SBCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. COULD BE A GOOD BALANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND SOME SVR. THE H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS INTO QUEBEC ON SAT AND USHERS IN HIPRES INTO THE NERN CONUS. THE CDFNT TIMING IS PROGGED DURING THE DAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER. SHRA CHCS END BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRY WX BLOWS IN THRU MON. THE STRETCH OF FAIR WX MAY CONTINUE THRU TUE. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 08Z. SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z. CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND 00Z. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE TAF PERIOD. CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF...OTHER THAN A TEMPO GROUP. WINDS GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KNYC TERMINALS WHERE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-7 KT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS. .SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. && .MARINE... SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN ON TRACK AS FORECASTED. A PERSISTENT...BUT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY WED MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE FRONT NEARS. CONDITIONS WED THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY BLW SCA LVLS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT ON THU AND FRI. THERE IS A LOW CHC THAT SEAS OFF MONTAUK COULD REACH THE 5 FT THRESHOLD AT TIMES DURING THESE PERIODS. && .HYDROLOGY... LOCALLY HVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY COME WITH A COLD FRONT FRI INTO SAT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW NEAR TERM...SEARS/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...BC MARINE...JMC/DW HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
840 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...HIGH COVERAGE OF STORMS LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY... ...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... CURRENT...TAMPA RADARS...FAA AND NWS...WERE DETECTING RAIN WELL WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF...ALMOST TO THE LIMIT OF THE RADAR RANGE. IR SATELLITE LOOP AND RUC40 LOOPS SHOWING SAME COMPLEX AND MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE EASTERN GULF MOVING TOWARD THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. THE RUC RUN WAS SUGGESTING THAT THE CLOUDINESS WOULD LAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE UPDATE WILL STRETCH ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE...DEPENDING WHETHER ON THE ATLANTIC OR LAND...PAST MIDNIGHT AND UP TO THE NEW ZONE ISSUANCE AT 4PM. COULD PUT A PRE FIRST PERIOD TO COVER SHOWERS THROUGH 8AM WHEN THE NEW ZONE PACKAGE OFFICIALLY GOES INTO EFFECT. PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION CURRENT TROUGH TONIGHT...A VERY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS. ONSET OF SHOWERS/STORMS WAS A LITTLE BEFORE NOON WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-45MPH RANGE...A LITTLE HIGHER IN A SOME SPOTS. ANOTHER BAND OF STORMS ALONG A SECOND LARGER SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE JAX TO SAINT AUGUSTINE TO OCALA TO CRYSTAL RIVER...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO KEEP STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH GOING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET...AND LIKELY A FEW HOURS BEYOND...OVER THE NORTHERN HALF CWA. THU-FRI (PREV)...WEAKENING UPR TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS COOLING TO -11/-12C AT 500 MB OVER EC FL...WHICH IS QUITE COLD/UNSTABLE ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED ACROSS SOUTH FL SO THE RESULTING W/SW FLOW WILL DELAY ONSET OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DOMINATE AND MARCH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. STORM COVERAGE LOOKS HIGH ESP ON THU WHERE WE HAVE DRAWN LIKELY (60 PERCENT) POPS ALL AREAS. A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRI SO HAVE DRAWN 50 POPS BUT SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY SEE EQUALLY HIGH COVERAGE AS THU. THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOMED BY MANY ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH HAS BEEN MISSING OUT RECENTLY. BUT THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND INTERACTION WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. SAT-WED (PREV)...ALTHOUGH WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THIS WEEKEND...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST US EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WEAKENING STEERING FLOW SHOULD FOCUS SCT AFTN STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE EAST COAST. && .AVIATION... OVERNIGHT...VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR KISM-KMLB SOUTH AS SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS FIRST BAND OF STORMS WELL EAST OF THE INTERIOR SITES (LEE/SFB/ISM/MCO) AND IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH DAB-TIX. THIS BAND WILL REACH MLB BTWN 20Z-21Z...BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH FARTHER SE. SECOND BAND OF STORMS LIKELY TO REACH LEE BY 20Z...PERHAPS WEAKENING SOME AS IT MOVES SE TOWARD SFB AND THEN MCO/ISM...BUT STILL COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. ANOTHER (EARLY) ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. && .MARINE... CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NOAA BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120NM. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4 AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 1 FOOT SEAS. TROUGH MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF KEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF IT. OFFSHORE WINDS ALSO HOLD SEAS DOWN TO 2 FEET OR LESS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNSET. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE IN SAFE HARBOR IN ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AT/ABOVE 35KT...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOW VSBYS IN RAIN...AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. THU-FRI...OFFSHORE (W TO SW) FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. A LATE SEA BREEZE OUT OF THE SE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTN NEAR THE COAST ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE. A HIGH COVERAGE OF STORMS...SOME STRONG...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE ESP THU AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3 FT OFFSHORE. SAT-SUN...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS WHICH WILL DECREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALLOW AN EARLIER ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE ESP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. AFTN STORMS WILL TEND TO STAY OVER THE FL PENINSULA BUT SOME DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR NORTH OF THE CAPE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 89 71 90 / 30 60 30 50 MCO 72 91 72 92 / 30 60 20 50 MLB 73 88 72 90 / 20 60 30 50 VRB 73 89 72 89 / 20 60 30 50 LEE 73 91 73 92 / 30 60 20 50 SFB 74 93 73 94 / 30 60 20 50 ORL 75 91 74 93 / 30 60 20 50 FPR 72 89 71 90 / 20 60 30 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ FORECASTS...WIMMER IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
808 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 .UPDATE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOT AS INTENSE AS YESTERDAY...AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME COOLING BELOW 500MB COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THUS LESS STEEP LAPSE RATES. RADAR TRENDS SHOW DECREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SUNSET. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTED SOME ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OUR SRN ZONES THIS EVENING FROM EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT MODEL APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THIS ACTIVITY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SO EXPECT QUIET NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION...ACROSS SE GEORGIA REMNANT BUT WANING ISOLD CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE GEORGIA COAST. HAVE ADDED VCSH OVER SSI THRU 01Z DUE TO APPROACH OF DEBILITATED BUT RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VFR AND RAIN FREE TERMINAL FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KVQQ WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WITH LIGHT FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. UPPER TROF WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE SE US TOMORROW...WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS COOLING A COUPLE DEGREES TO -10C OVER NE FL AND SE GA. MOIST SW FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN AT KGNV AND DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVE FOR KSSI...KJAX...KCRG AND KVQQ TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY 22Z-02Z WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH NOON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CUMULIFORM CLOUDS IN THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. && .MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE... WITH SW WINDS 10-15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 69 89 69 90 / 20 60 40 40 SSI 72 86 72 87 / 60 50 30 30 JAX 70 88 70 90 / 20 70 40 40 SGJ 73 87 72 89 / 20 50 30 40 GNV 69 88 69 90 / 20 60 40 50 OCF 70 89 70 90 / 20 70 40 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ WOLF/CORDERO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .AVIATION... MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE FORECAST IS REDUCED VSBY IN SMOKE FROM BROWARD COUNTY FIRE. CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE NOT MATERIALIZING LIKE 24 HOURS AGO AND IT APPEARS MORE MIXING IS TAKING PLACE ALLOWING FOR THE SMOKE TO DISPERSE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE UNLIKE LAST NIGHT. IN ADDITION, SURFACE FLOW HAS BECOME NEARLY CALM WITH LAND BREEZE NOT DEVELOPING. THUS, HAVE REMOVED REDUCED VSBY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SMOKE IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD AROUND 10-12Z AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. SEA BREEZES WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK SO STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC. KOB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/ UPDATE... THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS EVENING...AS THIS AREA HAS NOT SEEN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SO WILL REMOVE POPS OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WHERE A 20 PERCENT POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRE OVER WESTERN BROWARD COUNTY WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS A DRAINAGE FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION. SO WILL CONTINUE THE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD SMOKE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY SMOKE RIGHT ALONG THE EAST COASTAL AREAS. THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDER OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLACE. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING IN -9 TO -11C 500 MB TEMPS TO THE AREA BY MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. SO A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THEREFORE...THE HWO PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. UPDATE...54/BNB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/ AVIATION...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN TERMS OF SMOKE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. LARGE WILDFIRE OVER RURAL BROWARD HAS GROWN TO NEARLY 20,000 ACRES. JUST SPOKE TO FLORIDA FORESTRY SERVICE AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN MISSED THE FIRE TODAY...SO SMOKE EMISSIONS WILL CONTINUE. WIND FLOW IS ALREADY LIGHT AND HRRR MODEL SHOWS OFFSHORE NW LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ACT TO RE-SEND SMOKE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PIN POINTING HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GO AND WHERE THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IS IMPOSSIBLE. IN COLLABORATION WITH CWSU MIAMI, OPTED TO GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AND WILL AMEND ACCORDINGLY AS IFR IS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. ADDED VCTS ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING BY NOON TUE FOR THE EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPMENT THEN. /GREGORIA PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/ DISCUSSION... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE GULF BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALSO PUSHED INLAND DEVELOPING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY STRETCHING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNDOWN WITH HEATING LOSS. THE MAIN STORY TODAY CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE DUE TO AN ONGOING WILDFIRE IN NORTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY. SMOKE LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE BROWARD METRO AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROBLEM AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP AGAIN. THEREFORE KEPT PATCHY TO AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL YIELD AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. AN H5 TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE AMPLITUDE OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE DEPICTED BY THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING VALUES IN THE -9C TO -11C RANGE. YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND KEEPING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AVIATION... AFTERNOON HEATING AND MIXING COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS LED TO A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS REGARDING THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMOKE FROM THE LARGE WILDFIRE. ALTHOUGH THE SMOKE CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TRENDING DOWN. LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE CONCERN WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON THE LATEST STATE OF THE WILDFIRE. FOR NOW...THIS TAF PACKAGE DOES NOT INCLUDE SMOKE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. MARINE... A LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS REMAINING WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1039 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS DIMINISHING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHED INSTABILITY AND NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED WITH A SECOND TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. FOR FRIDAY READINGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONGER RANGE MODELS NOW SHOWING THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS KEEPS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY MID- WEEK...DEEPER TROUGH TAKES HOLD IN THE WESTERN STATES...HELPING TO BUILD A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT TYPICALLY SUMMER PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS DIMINISHING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHED INSTABILITY AND NOCTURNAL COOLING. THEREFORE...THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS OVERNIGHT. FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH 13Z MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL. THE GFS LAMP INDICATES MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP IMPROVE VISIBILITIES LATER IN THE MORNING AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 13Z. THE HEATING WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY...BUT THESE WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY. WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1006 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS DIMINISHING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHED INSTABILITY AND NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED WITH A SECOND TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. FOR FRIDAY READINGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONGER RANGE MODELS NOW SHOWING THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS KEEPS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY MID- WEEK...DEEPER TROUGH TAKES HOLD IN THE WESTERN STATES...HELPING TO BUILD A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT TYPICALLY SUMMER PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS DIMINISHING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHED INSTABILITY AND NOCTURNAL COOLING. THEREFORE...THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FROM AROUND 09Z THROUGH 13Z MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL. THE GFS LAMP INDICATES MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP IMPROVE VISIBILITIES LATER IN THE MORNING AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 13Z. THE HEATING WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY...BUT THESE WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY. WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
409 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF LOWS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THE LATE AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS OCCURRING. INSTABILITY WAS STRONG WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -8. THE LAPS SOUNDING SHOWED SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH KI/S ABOUT 26. THE RAP SHOWED SOME H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS JUST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WIND IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA PLUS WET- BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10500 FEET FAVOR DAMAGING HAIL. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EXTREME WESTERN GEORGIA AT 400 PM MAY REACH THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 900 PM. THE 15Z HRRR SHOWED THIS CONVECTION WEAKENING DURING THE 800 PM TO 200 AM TIME FRAME AND GENERALLY STAYING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS NEAR 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THIS TROUGH DOES TRY TO CLOSE OFF THURSDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CAROLINAS REMAIN IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AIR MASS TO REMAIN MOIST. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEARING THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST. THE CURRENT LOW WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW OFF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE WEEKEND LOW...BUT IN GENERAL STILL EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BEGIN TO SEE THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN FLATTEN BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL NOT INCLUDE STORMS IN FORECAST...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A FEW OF THEM AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AROUND 18Z THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE REGIONS RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF LOWS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE SO FAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. MAX TEMPS TODAY COULD REACH THE UPPER 90S. WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON AND 06Z CAE WRF MODEL NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA BEFORE LATE EVENING. AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN POSSIBLE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS FOR STORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS TROUGH DOES TRY TO CLOSE OFF THURSDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CAROLINAS REMAIN IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AIRMASS TO REMAIN MOIST. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEARING THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST. THE CURRENT LOW WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW OFF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE WEEKEND LOW...BUT IN GENERAL STILL EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BEGIN TO SEE THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN FLATTEN BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL NOT INCLUDE STORMS IN FORECAST...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A FEW OF THEM AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AROUND 18Z THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
929 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM TEMPS AND MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR REGION...AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED NORTH INTO NC. MODELS INDICATE SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR OUR REGION TODAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY REGION. A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PLENTIFUL SUN AND DIURNAL HEATING. MAX TEMPS TODAY COULD REACH THE UPPER 90S. WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. HRRR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON AND CAE WRF MODEL NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA BEFORE LATE EVENING. AIR MASS DOES BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN POSSIBLE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS FOR STORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE S AND SW. MODEL POPS AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON THE INCREASE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS GENERALLY SHIFT UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST FRIDAY BUT INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ECMWF CLOSES OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER OUR REGION SAT/SUN...MOVING IT SLOWLY TO OUR EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS WEAKENS THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST THEN SHIFTS IT TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL NOT INCLUDE STORMS IN FORECAST...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A FEW OF THEM AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
156 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE PLUS A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF BARNWELL AND BAMBERG COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AT 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING THROUGH SUNRISE. A QUASI- LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR MODELS SHOWS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND REACHING THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS NEAR DAYBREAK. EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WARM MID AND LOW LEVELS WITH A BIT OF A CAPPING INVERSION. DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF A TRIGGER AND ANY UPPER SUPPORT AND THE INHIBITING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE THOUGH WITH FAVORABLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER...90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND SOUTHERLY 500MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN MOIST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY WITH DIMINISHING POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION WANES DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM IN THE AROUND 90. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING AROUND 1.7 INCHES WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA. SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING RETURNS BY SUNDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND EXPECT DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION EXCEPT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CLEARING SKIES COULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 20-25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AT 1000-2000 FT WHICH MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL CARRY PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS AT OGB/AGS 07Z-12Z TIME PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT OGB DUE TO OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM EARLIER STORMS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ANY TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .DISCUSSION... 955 AM CDT HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR WORDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NORTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PASSING OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING WHICH IS AIDING IN THE LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE LIKELY SEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN THIS MORNING WHILE AREAS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-80 AND POINTS NORTH HAVE SEEN LIGHT RAIN FALL BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO MEASURE. ANOTHER PUSH OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERSTATE 80 NOW AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO THOUGH A DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. MORE ORGANIZED FORCING TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY LINGERING NORTH SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH. OTHERWISE CHANCES INCREASE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LIGHT RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER. MDB //PREV DISCUSSION... 248 AM CDT TODAY... FOCUS TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE...AS GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. EARLY THIS MORNING THE DRY AIR OVER NORTHEAST IL REMAINS IN PLACE...AS DEW POINTS HAVE HELD IN THE LOW/MID 40S. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS/DEW PTS HAVE RISEN TO ARND 60. THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL ONTARIO...WITH THE SFC LOW ANALYZED OVER THE OZARKS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO TIGHTEN...AND CONTINUE TO FILTER THE DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEAST IL THRU THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOWS THIS...AS THE CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO THIN. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIP...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN CWFA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE IN THE LLVL MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 1.5-1.75" MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IN/OH AND SLOWLY SEEP WEST INTO NORTHEAST IL. LOCAL ARW8KM SUGGESTS THE BEST TIMING FOR COVERAGE/PRECIP ARRIVING NORTH OF I-80 WILL LIKELY BE AFT 20Z...AND THE MOST RECENT CYCLES WOULD SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE GIVEN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID THE LLVL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR OVER LOWER MI WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW AS WELL...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 400J/KG AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION THE PRECIP CHALLENGES...TEMPS WILL EQUALLY BE TOUGH TODAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHIELDING THE DIRECT LIGHT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO WARM AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO GENERALLY ARND 70 TO LOW 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEAST IL AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE 60S. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 500MB CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO TRANSITION BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE EARLY WED MORNING. REMNANTS FROM THE SFC RIDGE CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO FEED SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN POSE CHALLENGES TO THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THE LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST CWFA...AND COULD SEE THIS NEEDING TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED/FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTHEAST. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. HI-RES LOCAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS EVEN LESS COVERAGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD...WITH THE OPER NAM TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. HAVE BROUGHT QPF TOTALS DOWN FURTHER...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT BY MIDDAY WED THE PRECIP COULD BE ENDING IN THE WESTERN CWFA...AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PIVOTS EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SFC RIDGING DEVELOPING ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH WED NGT...AND HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF THE DRY AIR FOR WED NGT TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPS WED WILL ONCE AGAIN HINGE UPON CLOUD COVER. SFC WINDS WILL AGAIN BE NORTHERLY...BACKING AND DIMINISHING TO NEARLY CALM LATE WED NGT. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING...HAVE TRIMMED TEMPS BACK TO ARND 70/LOW 70S. BUT CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH...AND COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WED. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THUR...WITH FLOW QUICKLY TURNING SOUTH AND ADVECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THUR...EXPECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THUR NGT TO BE RATHER QUIET. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE LOW COVERAGE AND NOT STRONG AT THIS TIME GIVEN SUCH A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THEN DRY AIR RETURNS THUR NGT AND WILL PERSIST THRU SAT NGT AS BROAD SFC RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE REGION. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...IT DOES APPEAR SOME CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARDS BROAD TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND ALLOWING FOR SOME AMPLIFICATIONS TO A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FOR THE GREAT LAKES SUN/MON. FLOW SHUD TURN SOUTHERLY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS WELL. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR A POSSIBILITY. * PERIODS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BRINGING SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS KEEPING THE LOWEST LEVELS DRY AND CONDITIONS VFR THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAUSING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. WHAT IS HITTING THE GROUND IS GENERALLY IS IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THAT ARE NOT DOING MUCH TO IMPACT VSBY...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST REFLECTIVITY AREAS. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT TOP DOWN SATURATION TO OCCUR WITH CIGS EVENTUALLY REACHING MVFR THIS EVENING. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN MORE MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS WITH A SECOND AREA OF DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN FOCUSED MORE OVER RFD WHERE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE AND QUICKER TO LEAVE. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL REST OF TODAY THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NEAR DAYBREAK....AS THE SURFACE LOW NEARS THE AREA...THERE GROWS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION GIVEN MODELS DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW TRACK. HOPEFULLY UPCOMING MODEL RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH KEEP A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FARTHER SOUTH LOW TRACK. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS AND DROPPING TO MVFR...LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS. * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THROUGH VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA EXITING DURING EVENING. THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...VFR. SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. RODRIGUEZ && .MARINE... 303 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE...WITH THIS DIRECTION REMAINING TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO INCREASE MORE TOWARDS THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE. A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL LIKELY KEEP THESE SPEEDS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RODRIGUEZ && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014 Latest surface map shows an elongated low pressure area from near Columbia MO southwest into northwest Arkansas, with a warm front arcing northeast roughly near I-70. Initial band of deformation rain has mostly shifted north out of the CWA, but some patchy showers/drizzle continue to the south. Latest HRRR had the general trends down, and show an additional surge of showers northward into the southeast CWA toward midday as the front lifts north. The orientation of the front will become more tilted along the I-57 corridor as the afternoon progresses, with additional showers spreading across the remainder of the CWA during the afternoon. CAPE`s not especially impressive, but expected to rise into the 500-800 J/kg range, supportive of some thunder in most areas. Currently think the far northwest CWA has a minimal threat, so have removed the thunder mention in that area, and adjusted the timing elsewhere to concentrate it more in the afternoon. Have also made some adjustments to temperatures, primarily across the northwest half of the CWA. Currently only in the lower 60s northwest of Peoria, and the main surge of warmer air will be further southeast today. Have lowered high temperatures a few degrees across the northwest, closer to the LAMP guidance. Made some adjustments to hourly trends in the southeast, but kept highs close to where they were. Geelhart && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014 IFR conditions continuing at the TAF sites at midday. While the visibilities will be fairly variable and rise quite a bit at times, the ceilings are mainly expected to only slowly rise into MVFR territory. Best chance of getting higher than that this happening would be at KSPI and perhaps KPIA, where the low clouds have broken up in the vicinity of a surface low which is moving northeast. Earlier widespread showers have lifted north, but additional rain is rapidly moving up from south central Illinois and will be reaching KCMI/KDEC shortly. A few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon as a warm front moves northward in eastern Illinois, with the threat quickly ending by sunset. Think there will be a more widespread MVFR condition by early evening before dropping back down again tonight as an upper low drifts into central Illinois. Winds are a bit problematic later in the period with the models varying in the track of the surface low, which impacts the direction, but speeds should generally be around 5 knots or less after 06Z. Geelhart && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014 SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday 07z/2am radar imagery shows initial band of light rain associated with approaching upper low lifting slowly northward across central Illinois, with the northern edge of the rain extending along a Rantoul to Macomb line. Air mass sampled by both the KILX and KDVN evening upper air soundings was quite dry, so precipitation has been slow to spread northward. As air mass slowly moistens, rain will eventually reach the far northern KILX CWA around Galesburg and Lacon by daybreak. Additional showers will develop across the area throughout the day, as warm/moist air flows northward from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the system. Forecast soundings indicate only weak elevated instability later this morning into the afternoon, suggesting mainly showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms. Better instability will be found further southeast across Kentucky and Tennessee where a slight risk for severe weather is in place. Due to extensive cloud cover and occasional showers, high temperatures today will be held in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Upper low will track from northeast Oklahoma early this morning into north-central Illinois by Wednesday morning. While a mid-level dry slot may tend to work into southeast Illinois tonight thus reducing rain chances there, deformation zone precip will likely be concentrated along/west of I-55. Will continue to carry likely PoPs through tonight before gradually dropping to chance PoPs on Wednesday. All model solutions show the low E/NE of Illinois by 00z Thu, so will bring the rain chances to an end Wednesday night. Based on the latest projections, additional rainfall with this system between now and Wednesday afternoon will generally be between half an inch and one inch, with a corridor of heavier rainfall in excess of 1 inch along/near the I-55 corridor. Once the upper low exits, the next system will quickly come into the picture on Thursday as a northern stream wave tracks through the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Weak cold front will push into central Illinois Thursday afternoon/evening, potentially triggering a few showers/storms. Think this system will have limited moisture to work with, so will only mention low chance PoPs as the boundary passes. Otherwise, Thursday will be a partly sunny and warm day with highs in the lower 80s. LONG TERM...Friday through Monday High pressure will build into the Midwest behind the departing front for Friday, providing cooler and less humid conditions. High temperatures will remain in the 70s, while overnight lows dip into the middle to upper 50s. As the high slides off to the east, warmer and more humid air mass will return early next week. Models are showing an upper ridge building across the eastern CONUS with an approaching frontal boundary losing eastward momentum as it becomes parallel with the upper flow. Consensus brings scattered showers/storms into west-central Illinois on Sunday, then further east across the entire area Sunday night into Monday. Do not think this will be a wash-out by any means, as upper heights will be rising and boundary will be dissipating. Main weather story early next week will be the very warm/humid conditions, as highs rise into the middle to upper 80s and dew points climb well into the 60s. Barnes && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .DISCUSSION... 955 AM CDT HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR WORDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NORTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PASSING OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING WHICH IS AIDING IN THE LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE LIKELY SEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN THIS MORNING WHILE AREAS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-80 AND POINTS NORTH HAVE SEEN LIGHT RAIN FALL BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO MEASURE. ANOTHER PUSH OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERSTATE 80 NOW AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO THOUGH A DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. MORE ORGANIZED FORCING TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY LINGERING NORTH SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH. OTHERWISE CHANCES INCREASE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LIGHT RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER. MDB //PREV DISCUSSION... 248 AM CDT TODAY... FOCUS TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE...AS GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. EARLY THIS MORNING THE DRY AIR OVER NORTHEAST IL REMAINS IN PLACE...AS DEW POINTS HAVE HELD IN THE LOW/MID 40S. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS/DEW PTS HAVE RISEN TO ARND 60. THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL ONTARIO...WITH THE SFC LOW ANALYZED OVER THE OZARKS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO TIGHTEN...AND CONTINUE TO FILTER THE DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEAST IL THRU THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOWS THIS...AS THE CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO THIN. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIP...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN CWFA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE IN THE LLVL MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 1.5-1.75" MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IN/OH AND SLOWLY SEEP WEST INTO NORTHEAST IL. LOCAL ARW8KM SUGGESTS THE BEST TIMING FOR COVERAGE/PRECIP ARRIVING NORTH OF I-80 WILL LIKELY BE AFT 20Z...AND THE MOST RECENT CYCLES WOULD SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE GIVEN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID THE LLVL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR OVER LOWER MI WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW AS WELL...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 400J/KG AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION THE PRECIP CHALLENGES...TEMPS WILL EQUALLY BE TOUGH TODAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHIELDING THE DIRECT LIGHT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO WARM AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO GENERALLY ARND 70 TO LOW 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEAST IL AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE 60S. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 500MB CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO TRANSITION BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE EARLY WED MORNING. REMNANTS FROM THE SFC RIDGE CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO FEED SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN POSE CHALLENGES TO THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THE LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST CWFA...AND COULD SEE THIS NEEDING TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED/FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTHEAST. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. HI-RES LOCAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS EVEN LESS COVERAGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD...WITH THE OPER NAM TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. HAVE BROUGHT QPF TOTALS DOWN FURTHER...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT BY MIDDAY WED THE PRECIP COULD BE ENDING IN THE WESTERN CWFA...AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PIVOTS EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SFC RIDGING DEVELOPING ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH WED NGT...AND HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF THE DRY AIR FOR WED NGT TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPS WED WILL ONCE AGAIN HINGE UPON CLOUD COVER. SFC WINDS WILL AGAIN BE NORTHERLY...BACKING AND DIMINISHING TO NEARLY CALM LATE WED NGT. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING...HAVE TRIMMED TEMPS BACK TO ARND 70/LOW 70S. BUT CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH...AND COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WED. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THUR...WITH FLOW QUICKLY TURNING SOUTH AND ADVECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THUR...EXPECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THUR NGT TO BE RATHER QUIET. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE LOW COVERAGE AND NOT STRONG AT THIS TIME GIVEN SUCH A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THEN DRY AIR RETURNS THUR NGT AND WILL PERSIST THRU SAT NGT AS BROAD SFC RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE REGION. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...IT DOES APPEAR SOME CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARDS BROAD TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND ALLOWING FOR SOME AMPLIFICATIONS TO A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FOR THE GREAT LAKES SUN/MON. FLOW SHUD TURN SOUTHERLY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS WELL. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z... * VARIABLE NORTH TO EAST WINDS...SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. * ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING WITH MORE PREVAILING -SHRA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. * VFR CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IFR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RODRIGUEZ/DEUBELBEISS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH TOWARDS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WHILE A LARGE SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT WITH THE FORCING LOST AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...DO EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BE LIGHT WITH AN OVERALL DRY TREND TOWARDS MID DAY. VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY AS MVFR/IFR WILL REMAIN TIED CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT MORE PREVAILING SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING REFLECTS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND WITH THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING OVERHEAD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR CEILINGS REMAINING. NOT CONFIDENT WITH EXACT TIMING NOR DURATION OF THIS IFR POTENTIAL AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL WHICH COULD BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME ON WEDNESDAY. A STEADY UPWARD TREND IN SPEEDS AND THEN GUSTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH 10KT OR HIGHER LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RODRIGUEZ //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA AND TIMING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. * HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING...LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR. RODRIGUEZ/DEUBELBEISS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA EXITING DURING EVENING. THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...VFR. SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. RODRIGUEZ && .MARINE... 303 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE...WITH THIS DIRECTION REMAINING TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO INCREASE MORE TOWARDS THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE. A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL LIKELY KEEP THESE SPEEDS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RODRIGUEZ && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014 Latest surface map shows an elongated low pressure area from near Columbia MO southwest into northwest Arkansas, with a warm front arcing northeast roughly near I-70. Initial band of deformation rain has mostly shifted north out of the CWA, but some patchy showers/drizzle continue to the south. Latest HRRR had the general trends down, and show an additional surge of showers northward into the southeast CWA toward midday as the front lifts north. The orientation of the front will become more tilted along the I-57 corridor as the afternoon progresses, with additional showers spreading across the remainder of the CWA during the afternoon. CAPE`s not especially impressive, but expected to rise into the 500-800 J/kg range, supportive of some thunder in most areas. Currently think the far northwest CWA has a minimal threat, so have removed the thunder mention in that area, and adjusted the timing elsewhere to concentrate it more in the afternoon. Have also made some adjustments to temperatures, primarily across the northwest half of the CWA. Currently only in the lower 60s northwest of Peoria, and the main surge of warmer air will be further southeast today. Have lowered high temperatures a few degrees across the northwest, closer to the LAMP guidance. Made some adjustments to hourly trends in the southeast, but kept highs close to where they were. Geelhart && .AVIATION... ISSUED 700 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014 Rain has moved into the area and is effecting all TAF sites this morning. However, there is back edge to the pcpn that has moved through SPI and will at DEC shortly. So have started these two off with VCSH and have TEMPO group for lower category. Back edge of pcpn will move through all other sites later this morning and have done the same giving 3-4hr TEMPO groups at PIA/BMI/CMI. As the lower pressure area system gets closer to the area and begins to move through, more showers will develop in the warmer sector and could possibly see a thunderstorm. So for later this afternoon and into this evening, will have showers with VCTS at all sites. Once that wanes this evening, pcpn will just be rain. Cigs and vis will remain MVFR or lower through the period with rain and the frontal boundary being close to or in the area. So will have MVFR and/or IFR conditions most of the TAF period. Pcpn could end around 05-06z so have indicated this in all TAFs. However, cigs and vis will remain low and will continue cigs below 1KFT overnight. Winds will be easterly to start at 10-15kts but then become southeast to south at SPI/DEC/CMI as the low gets closer and the front makes a little bit of a north move. PIA and BMI will be north of the front, so winds will easterly and then become northeasterly as the low tracks into the area. Auten && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014 SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday 07z/2am radar imagery shows initial band of light rain associated with approaching upper low lifting slowly northward across central Illinois, with the northern edge of the rain extending along a Rantoul to Macomb line. Air mass sampled by both the KILX and KDVN evening upper air soundings was quite dry, so precipitation has been slow to spread northward. As air mass slowly moistens, rain will eventually reach the far northern KILX CWA around Galesburg and Lacon by daybreak. Additional showers will develop across the area throughout the day, as warm/moist air flows northward from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the system. Forecast soundings indicate only weak elevated instability later this morning into the afternoon, suggesting mainly showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms. Better instability will be found further southeast across Kentucky and Tennessee where a slight risk for severe weather is in place. Due to extensive cloud cover and occasional showers, high temperatures today will be held in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Upper low will track from northeast Oklahoma early this morning into north-central Illinois by Wednesday morning. While a mid-level dry slot may tend to work into southeast Illinois tonight thus reducing rain chances there, deformation zone precip will likely be concentrated along/west of I-55. Will continue to carry likely PoPs through tonight before gradually dropping to chance PoPs on Wednesday. All model solutions show the low E/NE of Illinois by 00z Thu, so will bring the rain chances to an end Wednesday night. Based on the latest projections, additional rainfall with this system between now and Wednesday afternoon will generally be between half an inch and one inch, with a corridor of heavier rainfall in excess of 1 inch along/near the I-55 corridor. Once the upper low exits, the next system will quickly come into the picture on Thursday as a northern stream wave tracks through the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Weak cold front will push into central Illinois Thursday afternoon/evening, potentially triggering a few showers/storms. Think this system will have limited moisture to work with, so will only mention low chance PoPs as the boundary passes. Otherwise, Thursday will be a partly sunny and warm day with highs in the lower 80s. LONG TERM...Friday through Monday High pressure will build into the Midwest behind the departing front for Friday, providing cooler and less humid conditions. High temperatures will remain in the 70s, while overnight lows dip into the middle to upper 50s. As the high slides off to the east, warmer and more humid air mass will return early next week. Models are showing an upper ridge building across the eastern CONUS with an approaching frontal boundary losing eastward momentum as it becomes parallel with the upper flow. Consensus brings scattered showers/storms into west-central Illinois on Sunday, then further east across the entire area Sunday night into Monday. Do not think this will be a wash-out by any means, as upper heights will be rising and boundary will be dissipating. Main weather story early next week will be the very warm/humid conditions, as highs rise into the middle to upper 80s and dew points climb well into the 60s. Barnes && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
349 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .DISCUSSION... 248 AM CDT TODAY... FOCUS TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE...AS GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. EARLY THIS MORNING THE DRY AIR OVER NORTHEAST IL REMAINS IN PLACE...AS DEW POINTS HAVE HELD IN THE LOW/MID 40S. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS/DEW PTS HAVE RISEN TO ARND 60. THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL ONTARIO...WITH THE SFC LOW ANALYZED OVER THE OZARKS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO TIGHTEN...AND CONTINUE TO FILTER THE DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEAST IL THRU THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOWS THIS...AS THE CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO THIN. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIP...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN CWFA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE IN THE LLVL MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 1.5-1.75" MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IN/OH AND SLOWLY SEEP WEST INTO NORTHEAST IL. LOCAL ARW8KM SUGGESTS THE BEST TIMING FOR COVERAGE/PRECIP ARRIVING NORTH OF I-80 WILL LIKELY BE AFT 20Z...AND THE MOST RECENT CYCLES WOULD SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE GIVEN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID THE LLVL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR OVER LOWER MI WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW AS WELL...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 400J/KG AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION THE PRECIP CHALLENGES...TEMPS WILL EQUALLY BE TOUGH TODAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHIELDING THE DIRECT LIGHT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO WARM AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO GENERALLY ARND 70 TO LOW 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEAST IL AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE 60S. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 500MB CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO TRANSITION BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE EARLY WED MORNING. REMNANTS FROM THE SFC RIDGE CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO FEED SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN POSE CHALLENGES TO THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THE LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST CWFA...AND COULD SEE THIS NEEDING TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED/FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTHEAST. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. HI-RES LOCAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS EVEN LESS COVERAGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD...WITH THE OPER NAM TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. HAVE BROUGHT QPF TOTALS DOWN FURTHER...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT BY MIDDAY WED THE PRECIP COULD BE ENDING IN THE WESTERN CWFA...AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PIVOTS EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SFC RIDGING DEVELOPING ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH WED NGT...AND HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF THE DRY AIR FOR WED NGT TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPS WED WILL ONCE AGAIN HINGE UPON CLOUD COVER. SFC WINDS WILL AGAIN BE NORTHERLY...BACKING AND DIMINISHING TO NEARLY CALM LATE WED NGT. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING...HAVE TRIMMED TEMPS BACK TO ARND 70/LOW 70S. BUT CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH...AND COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WED. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THUR...WITH FLOW QUICKLY TURNING SOUTH AND ADVECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THUR...EXPECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THUR NGT TO BE RATHER QUIET. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE LOW COVERAGE AND NOT STRONG AT THIS TIME GIVEN SUCH A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THEN DRY AIR RETURNS THUR NGT AND WILL PERSIST THRU SAT NGT AS BROAD SFC RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE REGION. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...IT DOES APPEAR SOME CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARDS BROAD TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND ALLOWING FOR SOME AMPLIFICATIONS TO A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FOR THE GREAT LAKES SUN/MON. FLOW SHUD TURN SOUTHERLY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS WELL. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * NORTHEAST WINDS...SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASING BY MID DAY. * ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING WITH MORE PREVAILING -SHRA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. * VFR CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR TONIGHT. RODRIGUEZ //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... QUIET OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESSION NORTH WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH THE PREVAILING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS EARLY EVENING...BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PERIOD TO BE AN OVERALL WET PERIOD BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY MORE TOWARDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS BETTER MOISTURE AND PRECIP SHIELD MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...DO EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN LOWERING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CEILINGS IN THE LOW MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR RANGE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS BECOMING LIKELY BY MID DAY. RODRIGUEZ //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. * LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA AND TIMING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. * HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING...LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR TONIGHT. RODRIGUEZ //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z... WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. FRIDAY...VFR. WX NIL. SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL. SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. KREIN && .MARINE... 303 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE...WITH THIS DIRECTION REMAINING TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO INCREASE MORE TOWARDS THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE. A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL LIKELY KEEP THESE SPEEDS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RODRIGUEZ && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014 SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday 07z/2am radar imagery shows initial band of light rain associated with approaching upper low lifting slowly northward across central Illinois, with the northern edge of the rain extending along a Rantoul to Macomb line. Airmass sampled by both the KILX and KDVN evening upper air soundings was quite dry, so precipitation has been slow to spread northward. As airmass slowly moistens, rain will eventually reach the far northern KILX CWA around Galesburg and Lacon by daybreak. Additional showers will develop across the area throughout the day, as warm/moist air flows northward from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the system. Forecast soundings indicate only weak elevated instability later this morning into the afternoon, suggesting mainly showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms. Better instability will be found further southeast across Kentucky and Tennessee where a slight risk for severe weather is in place. Due to extensive cloud cover and occasional showers, high temperatures today will be held in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Upper low will track from northeast Oklahoma early this morning into north-central Illinois by Wednesday morning. While a mid-level dry slot may tend to work into southeast Illinois tonight thus reducing rain chances there, deformation zone precip will likely be concentrated along/west of I-55. Will continue to carry likely POPs through tonight before gradually dropping to chance POPs on Wednesday. All model solutions show the low E/NE of Illinois by 00z Thu, so will bring the rain chances to an end Wednesday night. Based on the latest projections, additional rainfall with this system between now and Wednesday afternoon will generally be between half an inch and one inch, with a corridor of heavier rainfall in excess of 1 inch along/near the I-55 corridor. Once the upper low exits, the next system will quickly come into the picture on Thursday as a northern stream wave tracks through the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Weak cold front will push into central Illinois Thursday afternoon/evening, potentially triggering a few showers/storms. Think this system will have limited moisture to work with, so will only mention low chance POPs as the boundary passes. Otherwise, Thursday will be a partly sunny and warm day with highs in the lower 80s. LONG TERM...Friday through Monday High pressure will build into the Midwest behind the departing front for Friday, providing cooler and less humid conditions. High temperatures will remain in the 70s, while overnight lows dip into the middle to upper 50s. As the high slides off to the east, warmer and more humid airmass will return early next week. Models are showing an upper ridge building across the eastern CONUS with an approaching frontal boundary losing eastward momentum as it becomes parallel with the upper flow. Consensus brings scattered showers/storms into west-central Illinois on Sunday, then further east across the entire area Sunday night into Monday. Do not think this will be a wash-out by any means, as upper heights will be rising and boundary will be dissipating. Main weather story early next week will be the very warm/humid conditions, as highs rise into the middle to upper 80s and dewpoints climb well into the 60s. Barnes && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014 A wet period ahead the next 24 hours across the central IL airports. Will lean on RAP and NAM models for this forecast. Light rain around SPI and DEC with vsbys still at 10 miles will spread northward to CMI in next hour and BMI and PIA between 08-09Z. VFR conditions the next few hours with MVFR vsbys and ceilings developing from south to north later tonight into Tue morning with moderate rain at times. 1004 mb low pressure over ne OK with a warm front over southern MO into the southern tip of IL and sw KY will lift ne into southeast IL Tue and Tue night and bring the widespread rain showers along with isolated thunderstorms Tue afternoon with the rain heavier along I-72 TAF sites. Winds mainly east to ENE next 24 hours at 6-12 kts and strongest during the day Tue. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1256 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .DISCUSSION... 908 PM CDT GOING FORECAST LARGELY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. COUPLE SHOWERS DID POP ON THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LONG SINCE MET THEIR DEMISE. LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE NORTHEAST TOWARD US. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING IN THE LARGE DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN INCHING NORTHWARD...SO BIGGEST CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WILL BE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS LITTLE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS PRECIP SO REALLY JUST ANTICIPATE PLAIN OLD RAIN WITH LITTLE OR NO THUNDER THREAT. IZZI //PREV DISCUSSION... 301 PM CDT THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL WAVES ARE FOUND FROM OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH ARE MOVING EASTWARD. NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW IS A SOUTHWESTERLY STREAM OF MOIST FLOW WHICH IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO NORTHERN OHIO. TO THE NORTHWEST...A TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LINED UP TO THE WEST OVER THE PACIFIC. IN ADDITION...A BROAD LOW IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND THIS CUTOFF WILL INTERACT LATER IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND OVER THE CONUS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOCALLY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC BACK ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA ON ITS SOUTHWEST FLANK. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER LOW IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ALBERTA. TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLUX...THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA INLAND OF THE LAKE. RADAR SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WHICH ARE MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY FADE WITH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR ROGUE SHOWER IN THE FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION REMAINS SLOW. EXPECT THAT TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BROAD SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BUT THIS LOOKS WEAK AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY THERMAL ADVECTION TO PROVIDE ADDED SUPPORT. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE PRECIP TRENDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY DUE IN PART TO THE HANDLING OF DRIER AIR ENTRAINED FROM THE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER LOW AND A DRY SLOT WRAPPING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST FORCING WILL PUSH NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LIKELY REACHING SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING BUT TAKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVEN EARLY EVENING TO REACH AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THEN IT BECOMES A MATTER OF HOW WELL ORGANIZED RAIN REMAINS AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS BY WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SO FORCING WOULD PRESUMABLY WEAKEN LEADING TO A DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FORCING DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES IN AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR AT VARIOUS TIMES AND THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF BEST ORGANIZED FORCING. THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVERALL WITH A BROADER AREA AFFECTED BY MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE NORTHWEST CWA LOOKS TO RECEIVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN. HIGHS TUESDAY MAY BE COOLEST SOUTH PROVIDED RAIN STARTS IN THE MORNING...WITH NORTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY ENOUGH TO WARM UP...POTENTIALLY TO NEAR THE HIGHS OF TODAY. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OFF THE LAKE SO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BE PRECIP DEPENDENT. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO IF PRECIP REMAINS SCATTERED AND EVEN ENDS LATER IN THE DAY THEN HIGHS MAY WELL REBOUND INTO THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 70S...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ONCE AGAIN. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND THEN LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO TAKING A SURFACE LOW WITH IT. A COOL FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW AND BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA SOME TIME THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF PHASING WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...WHICH WILL BE WHATS LEFT OF THE CUTOFF OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS MAY YIELD A BETTER PRECIP CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS VARIED ON THE DETAILS BUT WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND TRACKING NORTHEAST THE FRONT WOULD LIKELY BE PRETTY STRETCHED OUT SUPPORTING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MAY PHASE WITH ENERGY EJECTING FROM A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWING A DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STEADY WARMING TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY TO THE LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER FRIDAY AND TO A LESSER DEGREE SATURDAY. MDB && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * NORTHEAST WINDS...SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASING BY MID DAY. * ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING WITH MORE PREVAILING -SHRA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. * VFR CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR TONIGHT. RODRIGUEZ //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... QUIET OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESSION NORTH WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH THE PREVAILING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS EARLY EVENING...BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PERIOD TO BE AN OVERALL WET PERIOD BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY MORE TOWARDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS BETTER MOISTURE AND PRECIP SHIELD MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...DO EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN LOWERING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CEILINGS IN THE LOW MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR RANGE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS BECOMING LIKELY BY MID DAY. RODRIGUEZ //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. * LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA AND TIMING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. * HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING...LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR TONIGHT. RODRIGUEZ //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z... WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. FRIDAY...VFR. WX NIL. SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL. SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. KREIN && .MARINE... 219 PM CDT HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERICALLY BE 10-15 KT BUT WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH THURSDAY AND THEN TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS BECOME EAST AGAIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY AND WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. JEE && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 900 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014 Will update the forecast tonight with rain moving in quicker and already into our sw counties at mid evening as far ne as a Winchester to Springfield to Shelbyville to Effingham line and lifting northward. 1003 mb low pressure along the OK/KS border with warm front extending eastward into sw MO and central TN. Isentropic lift ahead of warm front will develop light to moderate rain northward across central IL late this evening and overnight. Leaned on the HRRR and RAP models for timing this rain. SPC day1 outlook for tonight has risk of thunder tonight sw of a Quincy to Decatur to Terre Haute line and may need to added isolated thunder overight in sw CWA. Otherwise rest of forecast looks good tonight with lows mostly in the lower 60s with ENE winds near 10 mph or less. 07 && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014 A wet period ahead the next 24 hours across the central IL airports. Will lean on RAP and NAM models for this forecast. Light rain around SPI and DEC with vsbys still at 10 miles will spread northward to CMI in next hour and BMI and PIA between 08-09Z. VFR conditions the next few hours with MVFR vsbys and ceilings developing from south to north later tonight into Tue morning with moderate rain at times. 1004 mb low pressure over ne OK with a warm front over southern MO into the southern tip of IL and sw KY will lift ne into southeast IL Tue and Tue night and bring the widespread rain showers along with isolated thunderstorms Tue afternoon with the rain heavier along I-72 TAF sites. Winds mainly east to ENE next 24 hours at 6-12 kts and strongest during the day Tue. 07 && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014 Shower chances will highlight this forecast, as a long wave trough slowly advances from the Plains across the mid-Mississippi River Valley through Wednesday night. A fast moving front will increase shower chances again later Thursday and Thursday night before high pressure provides a break from the rain through much of next weekend. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. Satellite and radar images show a well-defined low pressure system moving across S Kansas/N Oklahoma. An elongated region of isentropic lift ahead of the low is creating enhanced mid level cloud cover as far east as Ohio, which includes the southern half of Illinois. Radar returns over our southern counties is not reaching the ground due to a dry sub-cloud airmass. Gradual saturation of the boundary layer will continue this evening, with showers becoming likely after midnight south of Springfield to Mattoon. The HRRR and NCEP 4km WRF show a band of showers/storms affecting our southern counties after midnight tonight, so we bumped up PoPs to categorical in the southern third of our forecast area late tonight. It appears the band will progress northward on Tuesday with a dry period developing from south to north behind the band. There should be enough residual moisture that a couple of additional showers could develop during the day even where rain may end for a time in the morning. We tried to add some detail to the PoPs on Tuesday to follow that band of rain with categorical PoPs, and likely PoPs bordering the band. The occluded low is projected to move into southern IL Tuesday night, with waves of dry air wrapped into the low. That should help to limit showers in the southeast half of our forecast area later Tuesday night as diurnal stabilization helps decrease updrafts. The coverage and timing of precip Tues night remains problematic directly under the low center, but likely PoPs were left over a majority of the area for now. Wednesday will see showery precip linger in at least the eastern half of IL as the low pressure system begins to depart into Indiana. The trough axis is projected to reach the Indiana border toward 00z/7pm, so subsidence should become more prominent west of I-55 as the day progresses. Wed night and Thursday could end up being a dry period before a cold front triggers the next round of showers/storms later Thurs afternoon and Thur night. Ridging is projected to develop during Wed night and Thursday with somewhat drier and warmer air. Thursdays highs may even have enough help from sunshine to reach the low 80s. LONG TERM...Friday through Monday. Dry and warmer weather is forecast for Friday into Sunday as an upper level ridge and surface high pressure take control of the weather in the region. Highs may remain in the upper 70s Friday but should warm to the low 80s Sat and Sunday. A weather disturbance previously indicated for Sunday in yesterdays models has been delayed by both of today`s 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF. Increasing chances of rain/storms appears in both of those models starting Sunday night west of I-55 and expanding eastward on Monday. Chance PoPs were included in both those periods to account for the trends in model consensus. SHIMON && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1100 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2014 ...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level shortwave trough pushing eastward across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a weak upper level ridge of high pressure is transitioning eastward across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a cold front is shifting southeastward out of western into central Kansas. Ample low level moisture lingers across western Kansas behind a departing cold front with observed surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s(F). && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 A surface cold front extended from eastern South Dakota to near Sidney, Nebraska slowly moving south through the Northern High Plains. An are of relative low pressure was developing over southeast Colorado with an attendant inverted surface trough extending northward toward the cold front. Regional WSR88D composite reflectivity was already showing clusters of surface based thunderstorms developing off the Palmer Divide as well as the Sangre de Cristo regions in Colorado. Ahead of the frontal boundary, southerly winds were in place with surface dew points in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees across the eastern Counties. Drier air existed west of Highway 83 where dew points were in the mid 40s but increasing. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 All of the morning NMM/ARW and NAM models in addition to several runs of the HRRR indicate high confidence in convection developing early this evening and spreading rapidly eastward into central Kansas as a QLCS. Models indicate a marked in increase in layer precipitable water through the late afternoon and evening, with SREF QPF values in excess of an inch. MUCAPES around 2000 J/KG in early afternoon were also forecast to increase to in excess of 3000 J/kg. This pre-storm environment thermodynamic in combination with ample 30 knots of deep bulk shear will be conducive to gaining a high confidence in a few rotating updrafts initially in our northwest counties or basically anywhere from around Kearny county through Scott City and Dighton. These hail producers will quickly develop a cold pool generating widespread slab-like convection eastward into central Kansas though mid evening with damaging wind the highest threat followed by potential for hail and flooding from very heavy rainfall. This morning`s flash flood guidance for 3 hours was as low as 2 inches across portions of the area still outlined by a flood watch, which will make flooding to occur easily in some of the areas that have had in excess of 400% of normal rainfall in the last week or more. Beyond this evening`s high probability convection episode, north surface winds will develop behind the convection as the front is forced southward. Models have indicated potential for showers and probably elevated storms continuing into in the far south east areas into the early daylight hours on Thursday. Much cooler conditions ion cool advection are expected Thursday afternoon with highs struggling through the 70s in most locations. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening bringing MVFR conditions to the terminals. Otherwise expected increasing mid level clouds as the evening progresses with mostly cloudy skies overnight. Clear skies are then expected by sunrise tomorrow morning. Winds will generally be from the south over the next couple of hours shifting to more of a northerly direction behind a strong cold front. Breezy conditions are expected overnight with sustained winds around 20 knots with gusts around 30 knots at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 58 78 55 83 / 90 10 0 0 GCK 57 77 55 85 / 60 10 0 10 EHA 58 78 58 88 / 40 10 0 10 LBL 58 79 57 87 / 60 10 0 0 HYS 58 77 53 83 / 90 10 0 0 P28 64 80 57 84 / 90 40 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046- 063>066-077>081. FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-066- 079>081. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJohnson SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
846 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 845 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 GRIDS AND ZONES WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY FOR THE CANCELLATION OF THE REMAINDER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282. UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE ADDITION OF GOVE COUNTY TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282. ALSO UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS BEING SEVERE. A COLD FRONT OVER NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE...AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX...SO USED THIS ALONG WITH NAM AND SREF FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DEBATED ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT INDICATE ANY FOG AND JUST HINTED AT LOW STRATUS. THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO GET A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THAT SITUATION LATER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S EAST. THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND SLIDE SOUTH AND THEN EAST. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE NOT DOING WELL. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL UPPER TROUGH. THIS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY BUT IS WORSE TODAY. OVERALL THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE SREF LOOKED TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE AND WIND FIELD. THE GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN...SREF TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM TOO WARM AND THE UKMET TOO COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHOWN YESTERDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE AMOUNT OF CINH. THE NAM HAS AREA FULLY CAPPED WITH THE GFS LEAVING OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURRING. THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING THE AIR MASS CAPPED. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LARGE PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS HAVE COME UP ON THEIR SPEEDS WITH NEAR TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WESTERN HALF FOR MOST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAMPED THE WINDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. MAIN SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SHARPENING DRY LINE IS SETTING UP NEAR TO OR JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTABILITY AXIS AND MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO SETS IN THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE CINH IN THIS AREA. SO ADD A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE MAXES WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR TO TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS DO DEVELOP A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATURDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT ARE TALKED ABOUT IN THE NEXT PERIOD START SHOWING UP HERE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE OUTPUT LOOKING TO BE AFFECTING BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. ESSENTIALLY THE WEST TO NORTHWEST HALF LOOKS TO HAVE A RIGHT RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECT THIS AREA FROM LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THAT IN ADVANCE OF IT THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE SURGES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY LOW DEWPOINTS EXCEPT RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE THE EML AND THE SURFACE DRY LINE IS LOCATED. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT PROFILE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREAS. SO CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS AT THIS TIME. IT WILL GET HOT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO EXPANDED. CURRENTLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WILL HAVE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES. IF THE FUELS WERE FAVORABLE THE WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY BECOMES GREATER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ESSENTIALLY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SAME IDEA BUT DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. BUT ESSENTIALLY NO MATTER WHICH WAY YOU WANT TO GO...OUTPUT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED ACTIVE/WET PATTERN. THE ONE TENDENCY THAT THE ENSEMBLES LOOK TO BE TRENDING TOWARD IS A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW...SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG/FAR SOUTH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WHICH TENDS TO SUPPORT THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION. OVERALL THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT THE LATEST CRH_INIT RUN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY REMAINS DRY WHILE THE AIR MASS RELOADS LATER THAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT. THIS FRONT THEN REMAINS EITHER NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AREA OR WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A NEW FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRING THROUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND JET LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH THE QPF FIELDS INDICATING A MCS IN EACH OF THESE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INIT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 446 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL IMPACT KGLD NEAR 00Z. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO KMCK IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE STORMS PASS THROUGH STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES TOWARD SUNRISE. STRATUS WILL BREAK UP BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FS SHORT TERM...ALW LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
639 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2014 ...Updated aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 A surface cold front extended from eastern South Dakota to near Sidney, Nebraska slowly moving south through the Northern High Plains. An are of relative low pressure was developing over southeast Colorado with an attendant inverted surface trough extending northward toward the cold front. Regional WSR88D composite reflectivity was already showing clusters of surface based thunderstorms developing off the Palmer Divide as well as the Sangre de Cristo regions in Colorado. Ahead of the frontal boundary, southerly winds were in place with surface dew points in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees across the eastern Counties. Drier air existed west of Highway 83 where dew points were in the mid 40s but increasing. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 All of the morning NMM/ARW and NAM models in addition to several runs of the HRRR indicate high confidence in convection developing early this evening and spreading rapidly eastward into central Kansas as a QLCS. Models indicate a marked in increase in layer precipitable water through the late afternoon and evening, with SREF QPF values in excess of an inch. MUCAPES around 2000 J/KG in early afternoon were also forecast to increase to in excess of 3000 J/kg. This pre-storm environment thermodynamic in combination with ample 30 knots of deep bulk shear will be conducive to gaining a high confidence in a few rotating updrafts initially in our northwest counties or basically anywhere from around Kearny county through Scott City and Dighton. These hail producers will quickly develop a cold pool generating widespread slab-like convection eastward into central Kansas though mid evening with damaging wind the highest threat followed by potential for hail and flooding from very heavy rainfall. This morning`s flash flood guidance for 3 hours was as low as 2 inches across portions of the area still outlined by a flood watch, which will make flooding to occur easily in some of the areas that have had in excess of 400% of normal rainfall in the last week or more. Beyond this evening`s high probability convection episode, north surface winds will develop behind the convection as the front is forced southward. Models have indicated potential for showers and probably elevated storms continuing into in the far south east areas into the early daylight hours on Thursday. Much cooler conditions ion cool advection are expected Thursday afternoon with highs struggling through the 70s in most locations. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening bringing MVFR conditions to the terminals. Otherwise expected increasing mid level clouds as the evening progresses with mostly cloudy skies overnight. Clear skies are then expected by sunrise tomorrow morning. Winds will generally be from the south over the next couple of hours shifting to more of a northerly direction behind a strong cold front. Breezy conditions are expected overnight with sustained winds around 20 knots with gusts around 30 knots at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 58 78 55 83 / 90 10 0 0 GCK 57 77 55 85 / 60 10 0 10 EHA 58 78 58 88 / 40 10 0 10 LBL 58 79 57 87 / 60 10 0 0 HYS 58 77 53 83 / 90 10 0 0 P28 64 80 57 84 / 90 40 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday morning FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-066-079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE ADDITION OF GOVE COUNTY TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282. ALSO UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS BEING SEVERE. A COLD FRONT OVER NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE...AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX...SO USED THIS ALONG WITH NAM AND SREF FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DEBATED ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT INDICATE ANY FOG AND JUST HINTED AT LOW STRATUS. THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO GET A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THAT SITUATION LATER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S EAST. THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND SLIDE SOUTH AND THEN EAST. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE NOT DOING WELL. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL UPPER TROUGH. THIS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY BUT IS WORSE TODAY. OVERALL THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE SREF LOOKED TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE AND WIND FIELD. THE GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN...SREF TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM TOO WARM AND THE UKMET TOO COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHOWN YESTERDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE AMOUNT OF CINH. THE NAM HAS AREA FULLY CAPPED WITH THE GFS LEAVING OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURRING. THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING THE AIR MASS CAPPED. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LARGE PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS HAVE COME UP ON THEIR SPEEDS WITH NEAR TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WESTERN HALF FOR MOST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAMPED THE WINDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. MAIN SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SHARPENING DRY LINE IS SETTING UP NEAR TO OR JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTABILITY AXIS AND MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO SETS IN THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE CINH IN THIS AREA. SO ADD A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE MAXES WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR TO TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS DO DEVELOP A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATURDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT ARE TALKED ABOUT IN THE NEXT PERIOD START SHOWING UP HERE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE OUTPUT LOOKING TO BE AFFECTING BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. ESSENTIALLY THE WEST TO NORTHWEST HALF LOOKS TO HAVE A RIGHT RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECT THIS AREA FROM LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THAT IN ADVANCE OF IT THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE SURGES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY LOW DEWPOINTS EXCEPT RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE THE EML AND THE SURFACE DRY LINE IS LOCATED. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT PROFILE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREAS. SO CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS AT THIS TIME. IT WILL GET HOT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO EXPANDED. CURRENTLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WILL HAVE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES. IF THE FUELS WERE FAVORABLE THE WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY BECOMES GREATER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ESSENTIALLY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SAME IDEA BUT DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. BUT ESSENTIALLY NO MATTER WHICH WAY YOU WANT TO GO...OUTPUT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED ACTIVE/WET PATTERN. THE ONE TENDENCY THAT THE ENSEMBLES LOOK TO BE TRENDING TOWARD IS A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW...SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG/FAR SOUTH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WHICH TENDS TO SUPPORT THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION. OVERALL THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT THE LATEST CRH_INIT RUN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY REMAINS DRY WHILE THE AIR MASS RELOADS LATER THAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT. THIS FRONT THEN REMAINS EITHER NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AREA OR WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A NEW FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRING THROUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND JET LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH THE QPF FIELDS INDICATING A MCS IN EACH OF THESE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INIT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 446 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL IMPACT KGLD NEAR 00Z. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO KMCK IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE STORMS PASS THROUGH STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES TOWARD SUNRISE. STRATUS WILL BREAK UP BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FS SHORT TERM...ALW LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1219 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014 ...Updated for Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014 As an upper low continues southeast out of Kansas into this evening, we should see the areas of light rain over far western Kansas continue to diminish. Areas generally east of Highway 283 will see areas of rain, possibly along with an isolated thunderstorm, continuing into the evening hours. Precipitation chances should come to an end along the Highway 281 corridor around or shortly after midnight. The latest RUC and NAM model output shows the strong 850 millibar jet propagating out of far southwest Kansas by 6 or 7 pm and lining up more along a Hays/Larned to Dodge City line. The current wind advisory goes until 7 pm. Will let it go until expiration time as winds should be diminishing around or shortly after then. Tuesday should be mostly sunny and fairly mild as an upper level ridge moves over the central Plains. High temperatures should top out in the mid 80s over far southwest Kansas with highs nearing 80 in central Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014 Subsidence will dominate the region Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. Mainly sunny and much warmer conditions are expected heading into Wednesday late morning and afternoon with the development of southerly winds and much drier boundary layer air working downslope with time into far western Kansas. An upper jet immediately south of the region will drag an attendant disturbance/shortwave into the Central Plains Wednesday night. The ECMWF/GFS and NAM all model impressive 850-700 mb moisture transport ahead of this wave giving high probability of another MCS in some form. Based on the different model solutions, it seems reasonable discreet cells could form out of Colorado in the early or mid evening with cold pool development occurring farther east. probabilities for precipitation were increased to at least 50% in the far west to "Likely" (60-70%) farther east. By Thursday morning, cloudy conditions may linger for much if not all of the morning behind a surface cold front/cold moist surface outflow air, which various models have forecast not to exceed the upper 70s. Deeper into the period, for Friday and through the weekend will bring at least one additional chance for organized thunderstorms. By Friday an upper ridge will begin to build back into the central Plains returning prevailing southerlies to southwest Kansas. The GFS overturns instability on Saturday which is not well supported by the ECMWF. More model consensus falls of convective development returning Saturday night as the main upper wave lifts into the Northern Plains with it`s attendant upper jet streak diving into the the Central Plains inducing surface pressure falls and left front exit region forcing for large scale lift. These model solutions focus deep moist convection mainly over the Interstate 70 corridor of our forecast area for the likely areas for storms. The far southwest remains far behind the dryline. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 An upper low and associated low cloud shield will move east with skies clearing and northwest winds decreasing. VFR conditions are expected today into tonight with light northwest winds becoming light southeast by mid to late afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 58 91 59 80 / 0 10 70 10 GCK 59 92 59 80 / 0 10 60 10 EHA 59 91 60 81 / 0 10 50 10 LBL 58 94 60 81 / 0 10 50 10 HYS 57 87 60 78 / 0 10 70 10 P28 59 90 66 83 / 10 10 70 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gerard LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1003 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 .DISCUSSION... OVERALL...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTION W OF I-35 CORRIDOR IN TX AND WHETHER IT OR AFFECT THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z NAM DID NOT REALLY INITIALIZE WELL WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST GFS IS SOMEWHAT BETTER. 00Z RUN OF THE HRRR DEPICTS THESE STORMS MAKING A SERN TURN AND NOT AFFECTING THE CWA...WHILE AN MCS ORGANIZES ACROSS SW KS/NW OK AND MOVES SEWD TO JUST NW OF THE AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE HRRR. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR FAR NW ZONES DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE OTHER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS BUT MIN TEMP FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014/ AVIATION... DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/00Z TAF FORECAST...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER THROUGH 13/00Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS ON THURSDAY. /14/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014/ DISCUSSION... NW FLOW ALOFT HAS BROUGHT MILD JUNE TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS A BIT DECEPTIVE. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RIDE EWD AROUND THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND DOWN ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS OUR WAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NEWD. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE ON THE HORIZON AFTER FRIDAY. TEMP-WISE...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUE TO STAY RIGHT ON-PAR WITH SEASONAL NORMALS. RAINFALL/WET SOILS HAVE LIMITED TEMPS FROM RATCHETING UP ABOVE NORMAL...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 91 72 88 70 / 10 20 60 40 10 MLU 66 90 71 87 68 / 10 20 60 50 20 DEQ 63 86 65 85 65 / 10 60 60 20 10 TXK 67 88 69 85 67 / 10 30 60 30 10 ELD 64 89 68 85 65 / 10 20 60 40 10 TYR 70 90 71 87 71 / 20 30 60 20 10 GGG 68 90 71 88 70 / 10 30 60 30 10 LFK 71 92 73 91 72 / 10 20 50 40 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014 .DISCUSSION... 10/06Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .AVIATION... LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS PRODUCING A BKN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA FM NEAR KSHV SW TO KUTS. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REACH BPT/AEX BETWEEN 08Z-09Z AND LCH 09Z-10Z...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO RECENT HRRR RUNS. SCT TO NUMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REACH THE ACADIANA TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING TUES. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUES AFTN INTO TUES EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWERED VISBYS/CIGS DURING SHOWERS/STORMS. SLY WINDS WILL TREND MORE SWLY TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STALLED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/ UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS LINING UP NICELY ALONG TAIL OF SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. ONLY CHANGE TONIGHT WILL BE TO LOWER POPS UP TO 06Z. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 73 85 70 88 / 60 50 30 10 KBPT 74 86 71 91 / 60 60 20 10 KAEX 72 84 68 89 / 60 50 30 10 KLFT 76 85 72 88 / 40 60 40 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1143 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014 .AVIATION... VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA MAY APPROACH THE KMCB AND KBTR TAF SITES AROUND 14 OR 15Z. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS IS HANDLED BY TEMPO GROUPS IN EACH OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/ SOUNDING DISCUSSION... NO ISSUES WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING. BALLOON BURST 14 MILES DOWNRANGE NORTHEAST IN THE BOGUE CHITTO NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE JUST EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER WEST OF PICAYUNE AT AN ALTITUDE OF 20.3 MILES. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO 866 MB...THEN PSEUDO WITH A BIT OF WARM LAYER TO 540 MB THOUGH NOT REALLY AN INVERSION AND NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS PAST DAYS. TYPICAL INVERTED-V MOISTURE PROFILE SURFACE TO 866 MB/ 4300 FT THEN SPREADING TO DRYNESS ABOVE. WINDS WERE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY 10-35 KNOTS TO 30KFT BEFORE BACKING TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO 33KFT...THEN SW-NW ABOVE. TROPOPAUSE WAS AT 144MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -66.6C. PEAK WINDS WERE PRETTY LOW...215/36KT AT ONLY 11.9KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS UP TO 1.66 INCHES...LIFTED INDEX -7...CAPE 2745 J/KG BUT HELICITY ONLY 40 M2/S2. RAN CHAP ON THIS EVENING`S SOUNDING WITH 346K LIFT AT LFC/LCL LEVEL OF 866MB YIELDED 53 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE...GUST POTENTIAL 28 KT WHICH WAS VERIFIED AT KMCB WITH A 28 KT REPORT IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING. CHAP ON GFS 18Z RUN DOES SHOW A PEAK IN THREAT MARGINALLY SEVERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10AM AND 1 PM TUESDAY. 24/RR PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/ SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF JUST WEST OF TAMPA. STACKED UPPER/SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND EAST TEXAS. A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF MEMPHIS...TO MONROE...TO HOUSTON AT 3 PM. ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT PRESENT...WITH MAIN CONVECTION ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF THE AREA. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE MIDDLE 90S. DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE. SHORT TERM... UPPER LOW OVER THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. NEVER REALLY HAVE A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LOCAL AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEAR THE WEST EDGE OF OUR CWA AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT HRRR AND 3KM WRF RUNS. REDEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS THE WEST EDGE OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS WILL BE UNCAPPED FOR THE MOST PART BY MID MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SHOULD BE SOME DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN...AT LEAST EARLY ON...TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS ON TUESDAY. ABOUT THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. WILL BE CARRYING HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...DEFINITELY ABOVE 12Z MAV POP GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO MET/ECMWF VALUES. MAIN TROF AXIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER THREAT ACTUALLY OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THERE IS GOING TO BE A DRY DAY THIS WEEK...IT WILL BE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ON TUESDAY...IN THE MID 80S...AND IF RAIN OCCURS MID TO LATE MORNING...THAT COULD STILL BE TOO WARM. SOME MODERATION OCCURS WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD BE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY. 35 LONG TERM... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF SLOWS ALONG THE COAST. WILL ONLY KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW...AS FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG. SUNDAY WILL BE DRIER AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE GENERALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. 35 AVIATION... MONITORING THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN LOUISIANA...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BEGIN DISSIPATING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. AS A RESULT...KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z...AN ELEVATED INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THIS INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK RANGING AROUND 1000 FEET TO DEVELOP. THIS IFR AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER THE INVERSION BEGINS TO MIX OUT. 32 MARINE... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO DOMINATE THE MARINE ZONES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET. OVERALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE AREA. 32 DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 84 69 85 / 40 60 40 40 BTR 73 85 71 88 / 40 50 40 30 ASD 75 86 73 86 / 30 50 50 40 MSY 76 86 74 86 / 20 50 50 40 GPT 77 86 74 86 / 20 40 50 50 PQL 74 86 74 85 / 20 30 50 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
504 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION AS SOME VISIBILITIES REMAIN NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE IN SPOTS. NO OTHER CHANGES. CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO ENTER EASTERN OHIO AND INTO WRN PA THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST. STILL CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL BOUNDARY WORKS NORTH WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LINGER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY INCREASING MID DECK AS FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUDS LOOK TO PUT A BIT OF A LID ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PRODUCING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY NIGHTS WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST FOR FRIDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AS MODELS PUSH FRONT THROUGH REGION FIRST HALF OF DAY AND BETTER SHOWER CHANCES MAY BE OVER RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY SURFACE HIGH THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND THEN BEGIN TO WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MODELS POINTING AT AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE PASSING THROUGH. LATEST NAM/RAP RUNS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS MANY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTS. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS OUTCOME...WHILE THE RAP IS FOCUSING MAINLY OVER PORTS SOUTH AND WEST OF PIT. FOR FORECAST...WILL GO WITH LIFR VIS FORECAST FOR HLG...MGW AND LBE AND WILL NEED TO INCLUDE DUJ IN AS IT HAS ALREADY TANKED. FOR THE REMAINING PORTS WILL HAVE IFR VIS DEVELOPING. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THEN AN AREA OF VFR MID-DECK WILL OVERSPREAD ALL PORTS. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SLOW MOVING LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
305 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO ENTER EASTERN OHIO AND INTO WRN PA THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST. STILL CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL BOUNDARY WORKS NORTH WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LINGER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY INCREASING MID DECK AS FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUDS LOOK TO PUT A BIT OF A LID ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PRODUCING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY NIGHTS WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST FOR FRIDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AS MODELS PUSH FRONT THROUGH REGION FIRST HALF OF DAY AND BETTER SHOWER CHANCES MAY BE OVER RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY SURFACE HIGH THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND THEN BEGIN TO WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MODELS POINTING AT AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE PASSING THROUGH. LATEST NAM/RAP RUNS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS MANY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTS. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS OUTCOME...WHILE THE RAP IS FOCUSING MAINLY OVER PORTS SOUTH AND WEST OF PIT. FOR FORECAST...WILL GO WITH LIFR VIS FORECAST FOR HLG...MGW AND LBE AND WILL NEED TO INCLUDE DUJ IN AS IT HAS ALREADY TANKED. FOR THE REMAINING PORTS WILL HAVE IFR VIS DEVELOPING. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THEN AN AREA OF VFR MID-DECK WILL OVERSPREAD ALL PORTS. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SLOW MOVING LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
146 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO ENTER EASTERN OHIO AND INTO WRN PA THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST. STILL CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL BOUNDARY WORKS NORTH WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LINGER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY INCREASING MID DECK AS FRONT APPROACHES. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PRODUCING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST FOR FRIDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AS TIMING STILL SUSPECT BUT MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING. DRY SURFACE HIGH THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND THEN WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MODELS POINTING AT AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE PASSING THROUGH. LATEST NAM/RAP RUNS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS MANY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTS. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS OUTCOME...WHILE THE RAP IS FOCUSING MAINLY OVER PORTS SOUTH AND WEST OF PIT. FOR FORECAST...WILL GO WITH LIFR VIS FORECAST FOR HLG...MGW AND LBE AND WILL NEED TO INCLUDE DUJ IN AS IT HAS ALREADY TANKED. FOR THE REMAINING PORTS WILL HAVE IFR VIS DEVELOPING. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THEN AN AREA OF VFR MID-DECK WILL OVERSPREAD ALL PORTS. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SLOW MOVING LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
457 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NRN LAKES INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOWS LOCATED OVER SRN MO AND W CNTRL MANITOBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH OR TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING LIGHT NE TO E WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH UPPER MI WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP INLAND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND. WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE HANDLING OF THE MO LOW THAT LIFTS TOWARD SRN LOWER MI. THE ECMWF REMAINS FARTHER NW WTH THE MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND GRAZES THE ERN CWA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT WITH THE SREF...THE FCST INCLUDES SOME LOWER END(20-30)POPS FOR MAINLY LUCE COUNTY. THE NAM AND A FEW HIGHER RES MODELS ALSO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE PCPN INTO THE FAR WEST. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH...PCPN WAS NOT MENTIONED. WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 13C...EXPECT MAX INLAND TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF TO AROUND 80...WHILE LAKE BREEZES KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE SET UP ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI AT 00Z THURSDAY...STEMMING FROM THE WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH SET UP ACROSS LOWER MI AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON AND THE 500MB SHORTWAVE LINGERING ACROSS LAKE MI AND E UPPER MI. ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT NE THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM DIVES IN FROM THE MAIN 500MB LOW SET UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY. WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN THE FCST FOR THURSDAY. WONDERING IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET AS MUCH PRECIP AS BEING FCST OFF HPC /12Z/ WITH 0.25-0.33IN 12-18Z THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AND DIMINISHED THE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY...STAYING WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE W HALF...AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS TYPE OF SFC LOW TRACK. THE MAIN 500MB LOW STILL SPINNING TO OUR N WILL EXTEND A TROUGH DOWN THROUGH W ONTARIO AND N MN AND WI BY 18Z THURSDAY...WHILE CLOSING OFF. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES...WITH THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF BEING THE FARTHEST S OF THE BUNCH. THE MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE SAME. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SWING ACROSS THE CWA W-E THROUGH THE DAY...EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW SHIFTING FROM NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY TO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z WHILE DEEPENING. THE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS POTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WITH STORM MOTION OF 20-25KTS...AND PW VALUES ONLY BRIEFLY TOPPING OUT OVER 1IN...EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO BE MINIMAL. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE EDITED IN OUR FCST AS WE GET SOME BETTER TIMING FROM THE MODELS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES OVER THE LADDER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO 1-3C FOR FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT WELL BELOW THE 70S THAT ARE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST SPOT /S CENTRAL/ MAY GET ABOVE 70F. WNW WINDS OF 10-15KT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER. OTHERWISE...KEPT A MODEL BLEND GOING FOR MUCH OF DAYS 4-7. THIS INCLUDED KEEPING THE E HALF OF UPPER MI DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE W HALF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WET WEATHER CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 WITH HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF MODERATE WRLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NRN LAKES INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOWS LOCATED OVER SRN MO AND W CNTRL MANITOBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH OR TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING LIGHT NE TO E WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH UPPER MI WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP INLAND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND. WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE HANDLING OF THE MO LOW THAT LIFTS TOWARD SRN LOWER MI. THE ECMWF REMAINS FARTHER NW WTH THE MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND GRAZES THE ERN CWA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT WITH THE SREF...THE FCST INCLUDES SOME LOWER END(20-30)POPS FOR MAINLY LUCE COUNTY. THE NAM AND A FEW HIGHER RES MODELS ALSO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE PCPN INTO THE FAR WEST. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH...PCPN WAS NOT MENTIONED. WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 13C...EXPECT MAX INLAND TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF TO AROUND 80...WHILE LAKE BREEZES KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 UPPER LEVEL FLOW ZONAL TO START THEN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED BY LATE THIS WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER GULF OF ALASKA DEEPENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HEIGHTS SEE BRIEF BOUNCE UP ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH GRAZES UPPER LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE PATTERN APPEAR TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ATTENTION ON WEDNESDAY IS ON UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TROUGH SPLITS INTO TWO SECTIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO HAVE THE MORE PRONOUNCED H85 LOW AND SWATH OF MOISTURE TIED INTO IT. MAIN QUESTION HAS BEEN...AND CONTINUES TO BE...HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE SFC AND H85 LOWS WILL TRACK. ECMWF IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE SFC LOW LIFTING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN PROBABLY OWING TO STRONGER SHORTWAVE. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN FOR FAR EASTERN CWA MAINLY WED AFTN INTO WED EVENING. GFS AND GEM-NH ARE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE H85 LOW AND KEEP EASTERN CWA MAINLY DRY. NAM ONLY SCRAPES FAR EAST UPR MICHIGAN WITH ANY RAIN. CONTINUE TO LEAN ON CONSISTENT ECMWF IDEA BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOWER CHANCE RANGE. EVEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SHOW SHARP CUTOFF TO RAIN AND EVEN CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS TO +13C OVER WEST RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER INTERIOR WEST AWAY FM ANY LAKE BREEZE COOLING. TEMPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY STAY IN THE 60S. ONCE THE LOW-LEVEL LOW EXITS NORTHEAST...ATTENTION QUICKLY SWITCHES TO INCOMING STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TROUGH TRENDING SHARPER OVER LAST TWO DAYS AND THERE IS OKAY AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK OUT. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND THANKS TO SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK DIGGING INTO WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT TROUGH TO FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE SWIFT MOVING AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING WSW TO ENE AS LEADING SHORTWAVE/H5 TEMPS DOWN TO -16C CROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE SHARP COLD POCKET ALOFT/DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40 KTS AND WBZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 10KFT...PROBABLY NOT A STRETCH TO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS THAT OCCUR LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTN. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. DRY SLOT THEN QUICKLY ARRIVES AS LOW BECOMES VERY WRAPPED UP...SO COULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND TO SHRA/TSRA IN THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTN AND IN THE CNTRL AND EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. THEN TIGHT/CYCLONIC SFC-H85 FLOW IN WAKE OF COMPACT SFC LOW COMBINES WITH COLD/MOIST ADVECTION TO GENERATE SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA LATER THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY ENHANCED FURTHER BY LIFTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. AT LEAST SOME LGT SHOWERS OR RAIN COULD LINGER OVER SIMILAR AREAS ON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ECMWF SHOWS SHARP DRYING IN THE H85-H7 LAYER ON FRIDAY AFTN. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION /H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +2C/ WILL LEAD TO CHILLY FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF CWA. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 60 DEGREES... WHILE INLAND TEMPS STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S. SOME SPOTS WHERE ONSHORE FLOW LINGERS ALL DAY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NOW FLATTER... ALLOWING FOR QUICKER RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP ON SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE OVER WESTERN CWA BUT BY SUNDAY EXPECT GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AS MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO BEGIN BUT BY SUNDAY...WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGHER ML DWPNTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... MLCAPES INCREASE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF TSRA. QUESTIONS STILL THERE ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION CAN OCCUR...BUT WITH INCREASING DEEPER LAYER SHEAR...SUNDAY DOES SEEM TO HOLD SOME CHANCE OF STRONGER SFC BASED STORMS. THESE TYPE OF DETAILS HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO GET IRONED OUT. OVERALL THIS PATTERN IS QUITE ACTIVE AND THERE ARE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND TO ADD TO WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN A WET MONTH OVER PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 WITH HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF MODERATE WRLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
108 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LO AMPLITUDE UPR TROF OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS TROF IS MOVING E NEAR THE CNDN BORDER JUST N OF MN. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DPVA/ DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND AREA OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX JUST NW OF LK SUP THAT IS SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV...ONLY A NARROW BAND OF SCT SHOWERS HAS IMPACTED AREAS FM NW WI INTO THE WRN CWA UNDER AXIS OF ENHANCED CLD COVER EXTENDING THRU THE UPR LKS INTO ONTARIO. THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO MORE WDSPRD PCPN APPEARS TO BE VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.34 INCH /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...COMPARED TO 0.89 INCH AT MPX /110 PCT OF NORMAL/. WITH A LGT SE SYNOPTIC FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES CENTERED JUST E OF LK SUP...THE LLVL DRY AIR FEED AWAY FM GRB IS LIMITING THE SHOWER COVERAGE AND SPREAD TO THE E EVEN THOUGH THE MID/HI CLD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE UNDER THE IMPRESSIVE H4-2 DVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE POPS THRU LATE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV/DYNAMICS. FOCUS FOR TNGT AND TUE SHIFT BACK TO MAINLY TEMPS AS SHRTWV RDG BLDS BACK OVER THE UPR LKS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV. LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA/UPR DVGC ARE PROGGED TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR LKS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG BEFORE MOVING INTO SE ONTARIO SOON AFT 00Z. SINCE LATEST RUC FCSTS SHOW CORE OF LLVL DRY AIR PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL UPR MI...WL RESTRICT ACCOMPANING POPS TO JUST THE WRN CWA THRU LATE AFTN AS ANY SHOWERS SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DRIER AIR. EVEN OVER THE W... THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/UPR CNVGC AFT 21Z SHOULD DIMINISH THE SHOWERS AND CAUSE THEM TO END COMPLETEY BY 00Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD SHOULD FOLLOW THE SHRTWV TO THE E AS WELL...GIVING WAY TO MOCLR SKIES W-E. WITH A PERSISTENCE OF LLVL DRY AIR UNDER THE MID/HI LVL DRYING AND LGT WINDS UNDER LINGERING SFC HI PRES RDG...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG LATE OVER THE FAR W WHERE THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS/HIER SFC DWPTS THIS AFTN FARTHER FM THE CORE OF THE LLVL DRY AIR. TUE...HI PRES UNDER SHRTWV RDG WL DOMINATE AND BRING A MOSUNNY DAY. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES ON LLVL MSTR...WITH THE GFS ON THE DRIER END OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM AND THE NAM ON THE WETTER END. GIVEN THE OBSVD DRYNESS OF THE 12Z GRB RAOB AND THE LGT SYNOPTIC SE FLOW THAT WL DOMINATE THRU TMRW AND MAINTAIN THIS DRY AIR...PREFER THE GFS FCST. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH UP TO 12-13C...AND DEEP MIXING TO H75 ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS ARPCHG 80 AWAY FM LK MODERATION. THIS DEEP MIXING WOULD DROP SFC DWPTS INTO THE UPR 30S...LOWERING MIN RH TOWARD 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...SFC WINDS WL BE LIGHT UNDER HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN LK SUP...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS WL BE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE LGT SE SYNOPTIC FLOW WL FAVOR LK MODERATION OFF LK MI INTO THE SCENTRAL...BUT LK BREEZES WL DVLP OFF LK SUP ALSO AND BRING MODERATION TO AREAS MAINLY FM THE KEWEENAW AND E. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014 UPPER MI WILL BE PINNED BETWEEN THE 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA AND ANOTHER LOW ACROSS MO. OUR AREA WILL INITIALLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE S LOW...WITH CLOUDS STREAMING N INTO S CENTRAL UPPER MI. THE OPENING WAVE WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH E UPPER MI FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE LOW 80S. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 12-13C. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE SE...AND AFTERNOON CU. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODEL SPECTRUM FOR TEMPS GIVES ANYWHERE FROM 52-75F AS REALISTIC VALUES. WITH WINDS OFF LAKE MI...HAVE BROUGHT DOWN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT AM HESITANT ON DROPPING BELOW THE MID 60S. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS EXPECTED...IT SHOULDN/T BE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FAR E. AS WITH TEMPS...THE TRACK OF THE BROAD SFC LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION. IT SHOULD BE SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND E MN AT 06Z THURSDAY. THEN BY 18Z THURSDAY THE LOW MAY BE OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR /ECMWF/...OR CENTRAL ONTARIO /NAM/...OR E ONTARIO S OF JAMES BAY /GFS/. EVEN WITH ALL THIS THE QPF ISN/T TOO DIFFERENT. WENT WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS...EXCLUDING THE 09/00Z CANADIAN WHICH WAS MUCH SLOWER. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AT 00Z SATURDAY...THE GFS STILL HAD THE SFC LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE E HALF OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SFC HIGH AND 500MB RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT E ON SATURDAY...MAKING WAY FOR THE LOW STRETCHED ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 500MB LOW SKIMMING THE S CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO PUSH NE INTO MANITOBA ON SUNDAY /QUICKER ON THE ECMWF/. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 WITH HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014 WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WILL DOMINATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE MARINE LAYER THRU THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
828 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 .UPDATE... THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THAT OCCURRED TODAY ARE WANING NOW THAT THE SUN IS SETTING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLING. WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR MOST PLACES BEGINNING AT 03 UTC AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT/S ON TRACK SINCE THE ONLY REMAINING SHOWERS ON THE 02 UTC RADAR IMAGERY ARE NEAR ASHLAND AND NORTHWEST OF SHERIDAN. A DRY FORECAST IS ON TRACK EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT AND HEIGHTS ALOFT START RISING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT AS SHORTWAVE 500-MB RIDGING APPROACHES. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. WE DID THINK ABOUT ADDING SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST IN SOUTHEASTERN MT LIKE AROUND BAKER AND EKALAKA GIVEN RECENT MOISTURE AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO SUPPORT FOR FOG IN STATISTICAL /MOS/ OUTPUT FROM EITHER THE GFS OR NAM...AND THE HRRR DOESN/T SIMULATE ANY FOG FOR SOUTHEASTERN MT EITHER. MOREOVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM NEAR THE HIGH ARE IN THE 30S...SO A DRYING TREND WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WAS THUS TOO LOW TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST. SCHULTZ && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI... AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT 700MB AND ABOVE HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND IT WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS NOT OPTIMUM AND THE HIGHER CAPES ARE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE EARLY AS WELL AS MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FAR EAST BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW MODELS HANDLE THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOOLEY .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED... CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY SUMS UP THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INDICATE A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEEKEND FOR OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO AGREE IN GENERAL TERMS OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS IS NOT QUITE IN SYNC AT THIS TIME. THE GFS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA...BUT THE NEWEST 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE...IT APPEARS THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH DETAILS COME INTO QUESTION TOWARD NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. BT && .AVIATION... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ROUTES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ROUTES...INCLUDING THOSE NEAR KLVM...BY LATE THURS AFTERNOON. STC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 047/075 054/079 050/067 049/072 051/072 050/071 051/072 20/B 23/T 33/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 32/W LVM 041/076 045/074 042/065 041/069 044/071 043/068 043/070 13/T 34/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 32/W HDN 046/077 053/082 051/069 048/074 050/075 051/072 050/074 21/B 13/T 33/T 32/T 23/T 34/T 43/W MLS 045/075 054/081 053/070 050/073 052/075 053/072 052/073 20/U 23/T 43/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 33/W 4BQ 044/076 054/082 052/069 049/073 050/075 052/074 050/074 20/U 13/T 44/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 33/W BHK 041/069 049/079 051/067 047/070 049/072 050/069 050/070 20/U 23/T 44/T 33/T 23/T 44/T 44/W SHR 042/077 050/080 046/066 044/070 046/073 047/071 045/071 21/B 13/T 34/T 32/T 23/T 34/T 43/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
646 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A ~110KT JET STREAK NEAR MAINE AND A ~55KT JET STREAK OVER WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT / STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND A WEAK DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TONIGHT...WITH THIS SURFACE LOW THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE WARM FRONT / STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MUCH OF OUR CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA POST-FROPA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT LIFT ALONG THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEAR AS THROUGH THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WHAT LITTLE CIN WILL BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 1KM WRF-NMM...1KM WRF-ARW AND HRRR ALL SUGGEST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR CWA AROUND 00Z...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 23Z. THESE DATA DO NOT SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD ...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT IT CERTAINLY APPEARS HIT AND MISS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION COULD INCREASE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATION DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD ~20% POPS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTING AT 23Z THIS EVENING...WITH POPS THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 70% ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CWA 00-06Z. POPS ARE THEN TAPERED OFF TO NEAR ZERO HEADING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS NEAR 60...ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AS THE SHORT WAVE BRUSHES OUR AREA TO THE NORTH...SHOULD PROMOTE RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO NEAR 3000J/KG WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ~25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THE UPDRAFTS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT...A TRULY COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL NOT LIKELY INFILTRATE OUR AREA UNTIL THE DAY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS SHOULD BE REALIZED TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. THE INFILTRATION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL THEN PROMOTE COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S CURRENTLY FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH IT REMAINING DRY DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN UPPER LEVELS OVER THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY...THESE FEATURES SLIDE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...ENDING UP TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN ON THURSDAY NIGHT ...WITH CONTINUED LIGHTER NE/E WINDS...BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT A REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH NEAR 80 IN THE EAST TO MID 80S IN THE WEST. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PAC NW HAVING SHIFTED EAST IN CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH AN 50-ISH+ KT LLJ IN PLACE. SOME MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT /THE EC IS DRY/...SHOWING THE AREA CAPPED WITH BETTER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ZONES OF THE LLJ. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION GOING AFTER 06Z. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIES WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE APPROACHING FROM THE NW/W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/PERHAPS EARLY EVENING...DEPENDING ON CAPPING...BEFORE CONTINUING ITS TREK E/SE THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MODELS SHOWING A GOOD COMBO OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN COMING MODEL RUNS. THINKING THAT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY WOULD MOVE EAST OUT OF THE BY BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...LEAVING THE REST OF THE DAY DRY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS ON SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NEAR 80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/LOCATION THIS FAR OUT...SO KEPT POPS LOW...HARD TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE. HIGHS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR KGRI. AT 645 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF SAINT PAUL TO NEAR WOOD RIVER...AND OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THE FIRST ECHO ON RADAR IS DUE NORTH OF KGRI...JUST NORTH OF ST LIBORY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL CERTAINLY BE IN THE KGRI VICINITY THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...AT WHICH POINT THEY SHOULD ALL HAVE PASSED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 10 PM AT KGRI. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY 01Z TO 02Z. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID. PERIOD. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRYANT LONG TERM...ADO AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
637 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 18Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WITH AVAILABLE REMOTE SENSING DATA REVEALS THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS REGION...AT THE NORTHERN DOOR OF KLBF. 19Z HAND ANALYSIS INDICATED A TONGUE OF 60+ TD/S ARCING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WHEELER AND GARFIELD COUNTIES...WITH OTHER 60+ TD/S NOTED POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG AND WITHIN THE PLATTE RIVER BASINS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 19Z RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN KVTN...TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. AVAILABLE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FETCH OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH THE CAP BEING BREACHED AFTER 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TREND OF THE NEAR TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAS BEEN TO THE EAST...WITH THE LATEST /15-16Z/ RUN OF THE HRRR NOW INDICATING THE ONLY CONVECTION FIRING IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF WHEELER COUNTY. THE LATEST RAP13 SHOWS A SIMILAR TREND...BUT SLIGHTLY MORE AMBITIOUS WITH FIRING CONVECTION BY 21Z. WILL FOLLOW THE EASTWARD TREND OF THE NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS AND CUT BACK POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND EAST CONSIDERABLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO A EASTWARD ADVANCING SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE. THE AVAILABLE NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE EVENTUAL MERGER OF STORMS INTO A EASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT MAY BRUSH OUR FAR SOUTHWEST...BUT THE TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH...SO WITH THAT STORM CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ARE FADING AS WELL. IF THE CAP IS BREACHED AND STORMS FIRE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...STEEP LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY TSTM WIND. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIGHT WIND AND CLEARING CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S IS FORECAST...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH CARVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR US STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET CONVECTION WISE. THAT WILL CHANGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET QUICKLY TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO REGION. SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...BUT THE NOSE OF THE JET AND BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME THUNDER THOUGH...SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THIS POINT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL COME SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD ROUGHLY EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR EWING TO COMSTOCK TO CURTIS BY VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS CAP WEAKENS...AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME HEALTHY SB CAPES /NEARING 5000 J/KG/ AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT CREATING GOOD SHEAR...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 45 KTS. MODELS THEN AGREE THAT AN MCS SHOULD EVOLVE...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING. WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...AS STILL DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED CAPE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH STILL REMAINING TO OUR NORTHWEST. FRONT WASHES OUT MONDAY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWEST BACK INTO THE AREA. MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF SUPPORTING A POTENT SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING OUR AREA. GFS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SO WILL KEEP POPS 30 PERCENT OR BELOW AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 SCATTERED MVFR CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AROUND 09Z-12Z THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LIFT THESE CIGS AROUND 16Z...IF THEY REFORM AS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE NORTH PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER BASINS. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND AND RAPID ROCKY MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING....BUT THEN DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JACOBS LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...CDC HYDROLOGY...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WORK WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE END OF WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1000 AM UPDATE... MAIN FOCUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE ON DEVELOPING SHWRS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL. SO FAR AFTER PERUSING LATEST MODEL TRENDS...OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LACKING DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS WHICH WE/LL DIVE INTO HERE. MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT DAYTIME INSTABILITY GENERATION AS LATEST RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFFER A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AT BEST. MODEL LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AS A WEAK LOW /MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE ATMOSPHERE/S MIXING POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SKIRT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE WEAKEST. AND IF THAT WERE NOT ENOUGH...ANY JET DYNAMICS FROM A STRAIGHT-LINE JET OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AGAIN WILL ONLY INFLUENCE THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA. ALL TOLD...OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REALLY JUST DOESN/T LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK A LITTLE ON THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WHILE MAINTAINING AN ISOLATED MENTION FROM THE FINGER LAKES AND POINTS SOUTH. IF ANYTHING DOES GET GOING...WEAK LOW/MID- LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL CREATE VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WHICH COMBINED WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES...MAY CREATE AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN CONCERN. 645 AM EDT UPDATE... PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO MATCH REALITY OF TEMPS. DECIDED TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 420 AM EDT UPDATE... AN UPPR LVL CUTOFF LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC... HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH VISBYS RANGING FROM A QUARTER OF A MILE TO AROUND 6SM. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OUT A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE ALSO PRESENT THIS MORNING COVERING THE WHOLE CWA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT OUT AROUND 16Z. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE EARLY... HOWEVER WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE PRESENT EXPECT THE SKY TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY SHORTLY THERE OF. THESE TWO FEATURES MAY ACT AS A LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH MAY HELP THE INITIATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TODAY... BUT THE NAM IS HINTING AT A DECENT INVERSION AROUND 700MB TODAY... IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA. THUS... HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE PA AND FAR SOUTHERN NY. SINCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY... TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 70S. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH AND BE NORTHERLY AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 420 AM EDT UPDATE... THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WV`S ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NY AND PA. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WED. DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO HAVE TO BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. PWAT VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 1.8 INCHES WED AFTERNOON... AND WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.... ALONG WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM BEING SLOW... ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE AN ISSUE. WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY. THURSDAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL SWING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL INTO THE UPPR 70S/LOW 80S WED AND THURS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 310 AM UPDATE...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THEREFORE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS/POPS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. 215 PM UPDATE... AN UNSETTLED START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW WEEKENDS, BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL BE UPON US AGAIN THIS WEEKEND! FRIDAY WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT AT RAIN AS AN AXIS OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GENERAL H5 TROF IN THE EASTERN US. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR, LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS. H85 TEMPS IN THE 8C TO 10C RANGE WILL SUPPORT COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY. WITH ANOTHER 2C RISE BY SUNDAY, MANY LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WAS OBSERVED. AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP, LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN IMPROVE TO LOW VFR. AT KITH/KBGM/KELM, CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MIN WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS DUE TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z WIDESPREAD MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MIXING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... WED-THU...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS. THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. SAT...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KAH NEAR TERM...CMG/KAH SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
348 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 CONVECTIVE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY HAS HELD DOWN TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THUS...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE CURRENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. ATTENTION FOR THE EVENING WILL BE FOCUSED ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE 19 UTC RAP/16 UTC HRRR PROPAGATE THIS CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 00-01 UTC AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY 04 UTC...AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 06 UTC. THE RAP CHARACTERIZES THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WITH 300-500 J/KG OF -10 TO -30 C HAIL CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS...SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE EVENT AND EXPECTED INFILTRATION...THE THREAT FOR OVERLAND OR RIVER FLOODING IS LOW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 THE 500MB PATTERN ON THE EXTENDED MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO THROUGH THE EXTENDED... THE EXCEPTION BEING THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH EXITS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. CLEARING SKIES WILL COMMENCE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S. FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT INTO NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...PRODUCING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY TIME IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...BUT TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REMAINS IN AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 65F TO 75F...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT KDIK/KJMS/KBIS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND POTENTIALLY APPROACH KDIK BY 01 UTC...KBIS BY 04 UTC AND KJMS BY 06 UTC. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARDS MVFR/IFR. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...AC AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS SETTING UP FROM THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...AND THE 16Z RAP INDICATES MLCAPE 800-1000 J/KG BY 21Z. MLCIN WILL BE SUFFICIENT UNTIL 21Z TO PREVENT SFC BASED CONVECTION. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE SFC CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 21Z ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. IF CONVECTION DOES INITIATE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAIL AROUND 1.0 INCH GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS. LIMITED THE POPS/WX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THIS LOCATION WHERE THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS SETTING UP. FOR TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT 850MB-700MB FRONTOGENETICAL BAND WILL SET UP FROM CARRINGTON TO GRAND FORKS TO ROSEAU...AND INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA (WHILE LIMITING POPS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA). && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL SASK MOVING INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA. MAIN SFC LOW ASSOC WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA NORTH OF THE INTERLAKE REGION...WITH A WEAK FRONT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST AND TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO ND ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THRU NRN ND WITH SHOWERS ENTERING DEVILS LAKE REGION. THIS IS A BIT AHEAD OF MOST MODELS...BUT LATEST HRRR DOES HAVE SHOWER GETTING INTO THE NRN VALLEY NR 12Z-13Z BEFORE DYING OUT. SO WILL INCLUDE MORNING POP FOR SHOWERS IN NE ND. AFTERWARDS FOR THIS AFTN...MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH. SFC TROUGH IS BASICALLY WASHING OUT OVER FAR NW MN/NE ND SO FORCING FOR ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK. HOWEVER WITH ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AS SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID- UPR 70S THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH LIFTED INDICES -2/-3 AND CAPES 1100-1500 J/KG TO GENERATE A BROKEN LINE OF TCU AND A FEW STORMS LIKELY NR A ROX-GFK-JMS LINE LATE AFTN. THIS AXIS WILL DROP SOUTH SLOWLY THRU THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS A 5 PCT SVR RISK AREA ALONG THE ROX-GFK-FAR-JMS AXIS LATE AFTN AND THIS IS REASONABLE WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT. BUT WIDESPREAD SVR IS NOT LIKELY. NEXT STRONGER WAVE MOVING INTO WRN OREGON ATTM WILL MOVE INTO THE N PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN ERN SD WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN WED LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND TSTM AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 1.5 INCH IN RRV/WRN MN WED AFTN. HPC BRINGS 1-1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL WED-WED EVE JMS-GFK-FAR-BJI REGION AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS ON BACKSIDE OF 500 MB SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL START TO CLOSE OFF OVER MINNESOTA LATER WED AFTN. SO IDEA OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA SEEMS REASONABLE. GFS HAS COME BACK NORTH AND CLOSE TO GEM/ECMWF SOLN. NAM A BIT WEAKER. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 RAIN TO FOCUS MORE OVER MINNESOTA WED NIGHT AND END IN ERN ND. THEN THURSDAY WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND SUNSHINE. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF 500 HPA HEIGHTS SHOW A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO A LARGE...SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY... CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF IS MOST BULLISH WITH QPF ON SATURDAY WHEREAS THE GFS IS WETTER ON SUNDAY. THE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS IS MORE APT TO BRING GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO THE THE ECMWF...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING COMBINED WITH PWATS AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES SUGGESTS A HIGH CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF MID-JUNE NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 SCATTERED SHRA ENTERING DVL BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDED FOR POINTS FARTHER EAST LATER AFTN AND EVENING. STEADIER RAIN PROGGED FOR WED MORNING WITH VSBY LIKELY LOWERING TO MVFR. BEFORE THAT...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HEADING FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CAUSE LIGHT AND SOMETIMES VARIABLE WIND FIELD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NE WIND DURING WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
758 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPDATE... CONVECTION IN A LULL...BUT NOT CONVINCED WE ARE FINISHED...SO WILL LEAVE THE WATCH IN PLACE AND RE EVALUATE ON A HALF HOURLY BASIS. ONLY GOES UNTIL 9PM ANYWAYS. RAP MODEL SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO THE SOUTH IN NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. NOT SURE HOW WELL THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS...INCLUDING THE WRF MODELS...ARE HANDLING THIS AS OUR AIR HAS BEEN PRETTY WELL WORKED OVER WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 70-75 DEGREE MARK. BUT...NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS COULD ASSIST IN THE INITIATION PROCESS...AND LEAVES US IN A TRICKY SITUATION. KEEPING THE POPS HIGH CHANCE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AND LOWER CHANCE TOWARDS DAWN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION ARE AROUND 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES ATTM. STORMS ARE FIRING WITH HEATING ALONG LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING HAIL...WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK...AS WELL AS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GOING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A NEW SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO MORE CONVECTION. FAIRLY UNSTABLE...BUT LIGHT FLOW SO NOT REALLY CONCERNED WITH SEVERE BUT WATER COULD BE AN ISSUE. CLEARING OUT ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR DRY WEATHER SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS THE RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW WITH THE FRONT PIVOTING AND RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED GUIDANCE SO THEY WERE NOT ADJUSTED MUCH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW APPROACHES. TIMING AND CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THIS FAR OUT WITH SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW CONFIDENCE AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME AMENDMENTS HERE AND THERE. STRONGER CONVECTION ON THE WANE...BUT AS EXPLAINED IN THE NEAR TERM UPDATE ABOVE...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AFTER 00Z WITH ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE LOW CONFIDENCE...DO NOT WANT TO LEAVE THE AVIATION COMMUNITY HANGING WITH TSRA ALL OVER THE PLACE...SO AM KIND OF FORCED TO GO WITH THE VCTS AT TIMES WITH SHRA LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE OTHER PROBLEM IS THE FOG POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SEE MORE OF A STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN PLACE WHICH WOULD IDEALLY LIMIT FOG...BUT WITH RAIN TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...NOT SURE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE NIL. RELYING ON LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...WHICH SHOW SOME DISCIPLINE AND DO NOT TAKE THE SITES INTO THE DIRT...AND ARE SELECTIVELY GIVING IFR. MUCH HAPPINESS WI HEN THE GUIDANCE CAN GIVE A LITTLE COOPERATION IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION MATERIALIZATION AND TIMING COULD VARY. MIST/FOG COULD BE MORE DENSE THAN FORECAST. AMENDMENTS LIKELY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 06/12/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL FOG 06Z TO 12Z LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/LS NEAR TERM...JS/26 SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
748 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPDATE... CONVECTION IN A LULL...BUT NOT CONVINCED WE ARE FINISHED...SO WILL LEAVE THE WATCH IN PLACE AND RE EVALUATE ON A HALF HOURLY BASIS. ONLY GOES UNTIL 9PM ANYWAYS. RAP MODEL SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO THE SOUTH IN NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. NOT SURE HOW WELL THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS...INCLUDING THE WRF MODELS...ARE HANDLING THIS AS OUR AIR HAS BEEN PRETTY WELL WORKED OVER WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 70-75 DEGREE MARK. BUT...NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS COULD ASSIST IN THE INITIATION PROCESS...AND LEAVES US IN A TRICKY SITUATION. KEEPING THE POPS HIGH CHANCE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AND LOWER CHANCE TOWARDS DAWN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION ARE AROUND 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES ATTM. STORMS ARE FIRING WITH HEATING ALONG LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING HAIL...WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK...AS WELL AS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GOING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A NEW SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO MORE CONVECTION. FAIRLY UNSTABLE...BUT LIGHT FLOW SO NOT REALLY CONCERNED WITH SEVERE BUT WATER COULD BE AN ISSUE. CLEARING OUT ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR DRY WEATHER SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS THE RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW WITH THE FRONT PIVOTING AND RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED GUIDANCE SO THEY WERE NOT ADJUSTED MUCH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW APPROACHES. TIMING AND CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THIS FAR OUT WITH SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW CONFIDENCE AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME AMENDMENTS HERE AND THERE. STRONGER CONVECTION ON THE WANE...BUT AS EXPLAINED IN THE NEAR TERM UPDATE ABOVE...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AFTER 00Z WITH ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE LOW CONFIDENCE...DO NOT WANT TO LEAVE THE AVIATION COMMUNITY HANGING WITH TSRA ALL OVER THE PLACE...SO AM KIND OF FORCED TO GO WITH THE VCTS AT TIMES WITH SHRA LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE OTHER PROBLEM IS THE FOG POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SEE MORE OF A STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN PLACE WHICH WOULD IDEALLY LIMIT FOG...BUT WITH RAIN TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...NOT SURE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE NIL. RELYING ON LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...WHICH SHOW SOME DISCIPLINE AND DO NOT TAKE THE SITES INTO THE DIRT...AND ARE SELECTIVELY GIVING IFR. MUCH HAPPINESS WI HEN THE GUIDANCE CAN GIVE A LITTLE COOPERATION IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION MATERIALIZATION AND TIMING COULD VARY. MIST/FOG COULD BE MORE DENSE THAN FORECAST. AMENDMENTS LIKELY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 06/12/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL FOG 06Z TO 12Z LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/LS NEAR TERM...JS/26 SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST REACHING ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SMALL BAND OF SCT SHRA OVER CRAWFORD CO PA INTO EXTREME NE OH REFUSES TO GIVE UP SO EXTENDED SMALL POP FOR THAT AREA ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. TONIGHT THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LIFT NORTH A BIT AND LOOSE INFLUENCE ON THE AREA. THIS WILL OPEN THE AREA UP TO CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW. BASED ON RUC AND LIMITED HRRR DATA ALONG WITH 18Z GFS...THINK THE EARLIEST ANY RAIN WOULD REACH THE SW PART OF THE CWA SHOULD BE 11Z OR LATER. THUS ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE NIGHT HOURS DOWN SO POP ONLY GET UP TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY 11Z DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED ALL BUT THE FAR EAST TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PART CLOUDY THIS EVENING. DECREASE OF THE CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE ENDING WITH NEXT PUSH OF HIGHER CLOUDS IN INDIANA AND SW OH PUSHING TOWARD THE CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...COOL STARTING POINT THIS EVENING AND DECREASED CLOUDS HAVE LEAD TO TRENDING TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER DEG OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EAST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TUESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI JUST EAST OF THE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM OPENS. LOOKING AT THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND WINDS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO/THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL START TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS BASICALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOLMES COUNTY TO MFD TO FDY. EXPANDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BROUGHT POPS TO CATEGORICAL TUESDAY NIGHT DECREASING TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A DIURNAL DECREASE BEFORE INCREASING BACK UP TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. TEMPS SEASONAL TO A FEW ABOVE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA...SETTING UP WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO START WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON MONDAY ALLOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO SET UP. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND LOWERING CLOUDS. EXPECTING THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE THEIR FIRST AND THEN ENVELOPE THE REST OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IFR TO POSSIBLE LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WEST HALF TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER ON TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT NORTH FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...ADAMS SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1108 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER SUNNY...DRIER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BACK TO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SEEMS LIKE THE ANTICIPATED LLJET INCREASE IS OCCURRING NOW...AND THAT THE NOSE OF THE JET IS ABOUT HALF WAY THRU THE CWA...MOVING TO THE NORTH. CIRCULATION HEADED FOR KUNV SEEMS TO BE THE REMNANT MCV FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WE HAVE HAD THIS EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK IS SEEN IN THE PRECIP ON MESO MDL DATA WHICH LINES UP NICELY TO RADAR ECHOES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH RAP POINTING TO THE ALLEGHENIES AS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...THIS MATCHES WITH THE VERY LATEST CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER SWRN PA. CAN/T TAKE POPS OUT FROM ANYWHERE...BUT WILL LEAVE THE HIGHER NUMBERS IN THE NW AND LOWER SC/SE. RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVY IN THE SWRN COS...AND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN POSSIBLE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLW FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS THERE. MUGGY NIGHT...BUT SOME WIND SHOULD HELP KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD/DENSE. TEMPS MIGHT COOL A FEW MORE DEGS...BUT WERE ARE NEAR MINS NOW WITH TEMPS ALREADY NEAR THE HIGH DEWPOINTS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTION BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING RELEASES AND LEADS TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD LATE THU MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MADE NO CHANGES TO GOING POPS GIVEN CONSENSUS FOR CATEGORICAL POPS AND LOCALIZED HVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY STRONGER CONVECTION. CLOUD COVER SHOULD AGAIN HOLD TEMPS DOWN WITH MAXES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL BRING THE FIRST OF TWO TROFS THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING. THE FIRST WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF PA FRIDAY AS IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A DEEPER NORTHWARD PROPAGATING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...MOST SPOTS WILL SEE A PM TSRA AS THIS RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FAIR WX AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY GO A BIT BLW NORMAL...ESP SAT NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES PASS OVR THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH BREAKING LATE THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO STOP ANY CONVECTION FROM FORMING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS ON SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE NR 16C MON- TUE...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. RETURN OF HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE CHC OF SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MORE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE 03Z TAFS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS...BUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF LNS...GIVEN SE FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN A SMALL AREA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. LOW CIGS PERSISTED ACROSS THE EAST TODAY...MORE SO THAN I EXPECTED. THE CLOUDY SKIES HELD TEMPS DOWN SOME...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVED EAST OF UNV EARLIER JUST FELL APART. FURTHER WEST...HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTS SEVERE STORMS. BEHIND THESE STORMS...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM FAR PA. ADJUSTED 00Z TAFS FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY. ONCE STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...LOW CLDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THU AM. EXPECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TO BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY IFR AND MVFR. SIMILAR SITUATION FOR FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. OUTLOOK... FRI...A.M. FOG/ST. VFR/MVFR WITH PDS OF MVFR/IFR IN TSTMS. SAT-SUN...VFR. MON...MVFR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER SUNNY...DRIER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BACK TO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SEEMS LIKE THE ANTICIPATED LLJET INCREASE IS OCCURRING NOW...AND THAT THE NOSE OF THE JET IS ABOUT HALF WAY THRU THE CWA...MOVING TO THE NORTH. CIRCULATION HEADED FOR KUNV SEEMS TO BE THE REMNANT MCV FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WE HAVE HAD THIS EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK IS SEEN IN THE PRECIP ON MESO MDL DATA WHICH LINES UP NICELY TO RADAR ECHOES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH RAP POINTING TO THE ALLEGHENIES AS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...THIS MATCHES WITH THE VERY LATEST CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER SWRN PA. CAN/T TAKE POPS OUT FROM ANYWHERE...BUT WILL LEAVE THE HIGHER NUMBERS IN THE NW AND LOWER SC/SE. RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVY IN THE SWRN COS...AND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN POSSIBLE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLW FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS THERE. MUGGY NIGHT...BUT SOME WIND SHOULD HELP KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD/DENSE. TEMPS MIGHT COOL A FEW MORE DEGS...BUT WERE ARE NEAR MINS NOW WITH TEMPS ALREADY NEAR THE HIGH DEWPOINTS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTION BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING RELEASES AND LEADS TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD LATE THU MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MADE NO CHANGES TO GOING POPS GIVEN CONSENSUS FOR CATEGORICAL POPS AND LOCALIZED HVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY STRONGER CONVECTION. CLOUD COVER SHOULD AGAIN HOLD TEMPS DOWN WITH MAXES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL BRING THE FIRST OF TWO TROFS THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING. THE FIRST WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF PA FRIDAY AS IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A DEEPER NORTHWARD PROPAGATING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...MOST SPOTS WILL SEE A PM TSRA AS THIS RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FAIR WX AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY GO A BIT BLW NORMAL...ESP SAT NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES PASS OVR THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH BREAKING LATE THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO STOP ANY CONVECTION FROM FORMING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS ON SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE NR 16C MON- TUE...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. RETURN OF HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE CHC OF SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW CIGS PERSISTED ACROSS THE EAST TODAY...MORE SO THAN I EXPECTED. THE CLOUDY SKIES HELD TEMPS DOWN SOME...THUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVED EAST OF UNV EARLIER JUST FELL APART. FURTHER WEST...HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTS SEVERE STORMS. BEHIND THESE STORMS...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM FAR PA. ADJUSTED 00Z TAFS FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY. ONCE STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...LOW CLDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THU AM. EXPECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TO BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY IFR AND MVFR. SIMILAR SITUATION FOR FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. OUTLOOK... FRI...A.M. FOG/ST. VFR/MVFR WITH PDS OF MVFR/IFR IN TSTMS. SAT-SUN...VFR. MON...MVFR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
156 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY AND THEN ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AT 130 PM...LATEST FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AT 1030 AM...12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT SPC MESOANAL INDICATES THAT ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY CAPPED. WITH GENERAL NVA ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE EXPECT THAT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUPPRESSED. THE LATEST HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE SBCAPES ARE THE GREATEST. HENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO WIDELY SCATTERED RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF SHOW MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM DOES SHOW SOME CONVECTION...BUT OVERALL BUMPED POPS DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE WIDELY SCT/SCT RANGE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW GENERALLY AFTER 00Z SO WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISE POPS INCREASING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM DISSIPATES THE CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING EASTERN SECTIONS. SO CURRENT POP GRID LOOKS ON TARGET FOR THE OVERNIGHT. STRONG INSOLATION UNDER UPPER RIDGE IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT 830 AM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE LITTLE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS HAS DISSIPATED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP WILL EXIST FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY OVER PIEDMONT. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED UPDRAFTS BREAKING THE CAP...BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE ISOLATED RANGE PIEDMONT AREAS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE NVA UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. IN THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WITH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. CAM`S INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY JUST THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... 1100 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...REDUCING COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN SC. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE 06Z NAM. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...REDUCING COVERAGE IN THE EAST. AREAS OF FOG WERE ADJUSTED PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE AROUND THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. THE CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN TN AND GA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS VIGOR TOWARD DAYBREAK AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN NC WHERE BETTER RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY. WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT...CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR QUITE GOOD TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LARGE CAPE AND SOME SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID SUMMER NORMAL UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. CONVECTION MAY WELL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS STABILIZATION TAKES SOME TIME TO OCCUR...UNLESS THE AREA IS SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST BELOW MID SUMMER NORMALS. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION WED THRU FRI...KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A REMNANT TROUGH FROM THE DEEP LOW HOWEVER WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME. SWLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWFA...AND BY LATE WED PROG SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY SATURATED THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...PROFILES WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH EARLY IN THE DAY TO ALLOW DEEP MIXING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND 20-30 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...THIS MAY PERMIT SOME CELLS TO DEVELOP STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. WED NIGHT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH PROFILES LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ON THU BUOYANCY DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT BUT WE WILL HAVE THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. WHILE PWAT VALUES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE WED...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT THU AND SOMEWHAT INTO THU NIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CLOSEST THING TO A LLJ BEING OFF TO OUR NORTH...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD OR MEMORABLE. FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK FRI MRNG BUT WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY ANYWAY...SO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED ACRS THE PIEDMONT BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS. ON THU...CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE CWFA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGER TROUGH OVER THE NERN US BY FRI NIGHT...WHICH ITSELF LIFTS AWAY LEAVING THE ERN SEABOARD UNDER BROAD AND WEAK RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/EC DIFFER ON HOW TO HANDLE A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW DURING THIS TIME...THE GFS LETTING THE WAVE FILL OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE EC LETS IT DRIFT EWD AND CUTS IT OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP ON ITS SRN FRINGE WHICH MAY LIFT NWD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY. AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...THE CWFA WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN A MOIST PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MARITIME MOISTURE FLUX. THE GFS TRANSITIONS TO A TYPICAL SW FLOW REGIME AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THE EC FEATURES THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT KCLT...ATMOSPHERE STILL SUPRESSED PER THE UNIMPRESSIVE CU FIELD ON THE LATEST VSBL SAT PIC. LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER TN WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING TO KCLT TONIGHT. THUS...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE IN THE TAF THROUGH TONIGHT. ON WED...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH SPREADING SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY SOME RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ATMOSPHERE ALSO IS STILL SUPPRESSED PER THE UNIMPRESSIVE CU FIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE LATEST VSBL SAT PIC. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING FORM CENTRAL TN...S INTO AL. THIS WILL MAKE A RUN EASTWARD AND REACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ABOUT 00Z. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO AN UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A TEMPO AT KAND WHERE THE STORMS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAKING IT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND BEEF UP THUNDER FORECAST IF IT APPEARS THE THUNDERSTORM COPMPLEX WILL HOLD TOGETHER. OUTLOOK...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT THAT MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY AGAIN THU INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 95% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 95% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 95% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 82% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 88% MED 60% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LG NEAR TERM...JAT SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AT 1030 AM...12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT SPC MESOANAL INDICATES THAT ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY CAPPED. WITH GENERAL NVA ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE EXPECT THAT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUPPRESSED. THE LATEST HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE SBCAPES ARE THE GREATEST. HENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO WIDELY SCATTERED RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF SHOW MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM DOES SHOW SOME CONVECTION...BUT OVERALL BUMPED POPS DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE WIDELY SCT/SCT RANGE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW GENERALLY AFTER 00Z SO WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISE POPS INCREASING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM DISSIPATES THE CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING EASTERN SECTIONS. SO CURRENT POP GRID LOOKS ON TARGET FOR THE OVERNIGHT. STRONG INSOLATION UNDER UPPER RIDGE IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AT 830 AM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE LITTLE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS HAS DISSIPATED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP WILL EXIST FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY OVER PIEDMONT. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED UPDRAFTS BREAKING THE CAP...BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE ISOLATED RANGE PIEDMONT AREAS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE NVA UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. IN THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WITH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. CAM`S INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY JUST THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... 1100 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...REDUCING COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN SC. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE 06Z NAM. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...REDUCING COVERAGE IN THE EAST. AREAS OF FOG WERE ADJUSTED PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE AROUND THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. THE CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN TN AND GA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS VIGOR TOWARD DAYBREAK AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN NC WHERE BETTER RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY. WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT...CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR QUITE GOOD TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LARGE CAPE AND SOME SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID SUMMER NORMAL UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. CONVECTION MAY WELL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS STABILIZATION TAKES SOME TIME TO OCCUR...UNLESS THE AREA IS SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST BELOW MID SUMMER NORMALS. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION WED THRU FRI...KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A REMNANT TROUGH FROM THE DEEP LOW HOWEVER WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME. SWLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWFA...AND BY LATE WED PROG SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY SATURATED THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...PROFILES WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH EARLY IN THE DAY TO ALLOW DEEP MIXING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND 20-30 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...THIS MAY PERMIT SOME CELLS TO DEVELOP STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. WED NIGHT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH PROFILES LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ON THU BUOYANCY DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT BUT WE WILL HAVE THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. WHILE PWAT VALUES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE WED...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT THU AND SOMEWHAT INTO THU NIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CLOSEST THING TO A LLJ BEING OFF TO OUR NORTH...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD OR MEMORABLE. FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK FRI MRNG BUT WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY ANYWAY...SO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED ACRS THE PIEDMONT BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS. ON THU...CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE CWFA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGER TROUGH OVER THE NERN US BY FRI NIGHT...WHICH ITSELF LIFTS AWAY LEAVING THE ERN SEABOARD UNDER BROAD AND WEAK RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/EC DIFFER ON HOW TO HANDLE A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW DURING THIS TIME...THE GFS LETTING THE WAVE FILL OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE EC LETS IT DRIFT EWD AND CUTS IT OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP ON ITS SRN FRINGE WHICH MAY LIFT NWD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY. AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...THE CWFA WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN A MOIST PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MARITIME MOISTURE FLUX. THE GFS TRANSITIONS TO A TYPICAL SW FLOW REGIME AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THE EC FEATURES THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT KCLT...FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS MORNING...NOR HAS AN MVFR CIG RESTRICTION. FOG COVERAGE REMAINS IN ALL DIRECTIONS ...AND THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION HAS LOWERED TO 2 DEGREE...SO SOME CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR TEMPORARY FOG. INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER FORCING. GUIDANCE FAVORS SCATTERED CIRRUS TODAY...BUT A LOW VFR CIG COULD ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL... BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD FAVOR LOW VFR FOG AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...ONLY KHKY IS PLAGUED WITH A FOG RESTRICTION THIS MORNING...AND DEW POINT DEPRESSION DO NOT FAVOR FOG ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS NEAR KAVL WILL DIMINISH AS UPPER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE NE. INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH A LACK OF FORCING. GUIDANCE SUPPORT GENERALLY SCATTERED CIRRUS...BUT A LOW VFR CIG COULD ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MVFR FOG AT KHKY AND KAND...AND IFR FOG AT KAVL BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN EXPECTED CONVECTION...AND THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM. BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LG NEAR TERM...JAT SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 0815 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...ALLOWING A CONVECTIVE LINE TO MOVE FARTHER EAST ACROSS SW NC...AND THE WESTERN SC UPSTATE. AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE AROUND THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. THE CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN TN AND GA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS VIGOR TOWARD DAYBREAK AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN NC WHERE BETTER RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY. WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT...CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR QUITE GOOD TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LARGE CAPE AND SOME SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID SUMMER NORMAL UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. CONVECTION MAY WELL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS STABILIZATION TAKES SOME TIME TO OCCUR...UNLESS THE AREA IS SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST BELOW MID SUMMER NORMALS. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION WED THRU FRI...KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A REMNANT TROUGH FROM THE DEEP LOW HOWEVER WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME. SWLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWFA...AND BY LATE WED PROG SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY SATURATED THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...PROFILES WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH EARLY IN THE DAY TO ALLOW DEEP MIXING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND 20-30 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...THIS MAY PERMIT SOME CELLS TO DEVELOP STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. WED NIGHT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH PROFILES LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ON THU BUOYANCY DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT BUT WE WILL HAVE THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. WHILE PWAT VALUES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE WED...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT THU AND SOMEWHAT INTO THU NIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CLOSEST THING TO A LLJ BEING OFF TO OUR NORTH...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD OR MEMORABLE. FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK FRI MRNG BUT WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY ANYWAY...SO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED ACRS THE PIEDMONT BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS. ON THU...CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE CWFA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGER TROUGH OVER THE NERN US BY FRI NIGHT...WHICH ITSELF LIFTS AWAY LEAVING THE ERN SEABOARD UNDER BROAD AND WEAK RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/EC DIFFER ON HOW TO HANDLE A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW DURING THIS TIME...THE GFS LETTING THE WAVE FILL OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE EC LETS IT DRIFT EWD AND CUTS IT OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP ON ITS SRN FRINGE WHICH MAY LIFT NWD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY. AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...THE CWFA WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN A MOIST PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MARITIME MOISTURE FLUX. THE GFS TRANSITIONS TO A TYPICAL SW FLOW REGIME AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THE EC FEATURES THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT KCLT...FOG IS ALREADY FORMING IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT...AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS LOW VFR...AT LEAST MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE RUC WAS PREFERRED FOR ITS IFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH A WARM AND HUMID UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE... AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL... APPROACHING 10 KNOTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHEN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR FOG AT NC SITES AND KAND BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT SC SITES...AND MVFR CIGS SW OF KAVL. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK. CONVECTION NOW IN CENTRAL TN AND AL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT REACHES THE NC MOUNTAINS IN A FEW HOURS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN SEE NO REASON NOT TO CARRY THIS AT ALL SITES. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...APPROACHING 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM. BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z KCLT HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAT NEAR TERM...JAT SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE AROUND THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. THE CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN TN AND GA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS VIGOR TOWARD DAYBREAK AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN NC WHERE BETTER RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY. WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT...CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR QUITE GOOD TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LARGE CAPE AND SOME SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID SUMMER NORMAL UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. CONVECTION MAY WELL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS STABILIZATION TAKES SOME TIME TO OCCUR...UNLESS THE AREA IS SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST BELOW MID SUMMER NORMALS. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION WED THRU FRI...KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A REMNANT TROUGH FROM THE DEEP LOW HOWEVER WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME. SWLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWFA...AND BY LATE WED PROG SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY SATURATED THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...PROFILES WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH EARLY IN THE DAY TO ALLOW DEEP MIXING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND 20-30 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...THIS MAY PERMIT SOME CELLS TO DEVELOP STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. WED NIGHT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH PROFILES LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ON THU BUOYANCY DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT BUT WE WILL HAVE THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. WHILE PWAT VALUES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE WED...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT THU AND SOMEWHAT INTO THU NIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CLOSEST THING TO A LLJ BEING OFF TO OUR NORTH...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD OR MEMORABLE. FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK FRI MRNG BUT WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY ANYWAY...SO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED ACRS THE PIEDMONT BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS. ON THU...CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE CWFA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGER TROUGH OVER THE NERN US BY FRI NIGHT...WHICH ITSELF LIFTS AWAY LEAVING THE ERN SEABOARD UNDER BROAD AND WEAK RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/EC DIFFER ON HOW TO HANDLE A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW DURING THIS TIME...THE GFS LETTING THE WAVE FILL OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE EC LETS IT DRIFT EWD AND CUTS IT OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP ON ITS SRN FRINGE WHICH MAY LIFT NWD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY. AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...THE CWFA WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN A MOIST PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MARITIME MOISTURE FLUX. THE GFS TRANSITIONS TO A TYPICAL SW FLOW REGIME AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THE EC FEATURES THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT KCLT...FOG IS ALREADY FORMING IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT...AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS LOW VFR...AT LEAST MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE RUC WAS PREFERRED FOR ITS IFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH A WARM AND HUMID UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE... AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL... APPROACHING 10 KNOTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHEN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR FOG AT NC SITES AND KAND BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT SC SITES...AND MVFR CIGS SW OF KAVL. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK. CONVECTION NOW IN CENTRAL TN AND AL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT REACHES THE NC MOUNTAINS IN A FEW HOURS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN SEE NO REASON NOT TO CARRY THIS AT ALL SITES. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...APPROACHING 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM. BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z KCLT HIGH 82% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAT NEAR TERM...JAT SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
128 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER AND POPS WERE UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS UPSTREAM. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM AND ADJMAV. AREAS OF FOG WERE UPDATED FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. AS OF 10 PM...WILL CANCEL THE REST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE APPROACH OF AN MCS SEEN TO THE WEST. REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS THE CWFA. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS PROVIDING ENHANCED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. FORECAST WILL HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS REGIONWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPS. POPS TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES INTO THE LATE EVENING WITH POPS LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MID MORNING WITH COVERAGE BEING MOST DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS GREATER REGARDING VISIBILITY RESTRICITONS ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE PUSHES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THE OLD QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INITIALIZE RATHER WEAK BEFORE RAMPING UP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85. THEREFORE EXPECTING THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY TO BE ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE AXIS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS STRETCHING TOWARDS OR EVEN EXCEEDING 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON SKY COVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MO. MOVES NE AND FILLS. A REMANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THU. AT THE SURFACE...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE SWAY OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THU. AS THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS GULF INFLOW IMPROVES WITH TIME. IN REGARD TO CONVECTION...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS EARLY ON. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVER DONE IN HANGING ONTO SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MUCH OF TUE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER FORCING. HENCE...WILL STEER THE TUE NIGHT FORECAST MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE DRYER NAM. ON WED...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL AGAIN SPIKE DURING MAX AFTERNOON HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CASE TO BE MADE FOR SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WED NIGHT AS UPPER DIVERGANCE IMPROVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE UPSLOPE...ALONG WITH IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST WED NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT REACH THE AREA. THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AS SBCAPE BECOMES MORE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/CLOUDS. PWATS GRADUALLY INCREASE AND GENERALLY PEAK AROUND 1.75 INCHES. HENCE AS WE GET INTO WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT INTO THU...A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPS. USED SUPERBLEND/ WEIGHTED MODEL DATA FOR TEMPS/POPS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FROM LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND LOWER...ESPECIALLY ON THU AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROMOTES MORE CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...AT 00Z FRIDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH RESULTED AFTER THE CLOSED 500MB LOW OPENED OVER THE MIDWEST DURING MID WEEK. CAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THURSDAY ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY AIDING IN MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS HAS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM ACROSS TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY WITH THE RESULTING COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW BECOMING UPSLOPE FROM THE SE INTO OUR NC...SC AND GA MTNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. IF THIS LIGHT 5 TO 10KT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PANS OUT...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF SAT AND SUN WHICH OF COURSE WOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW BEST INSTABILITY IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD BEING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 IN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FORECAST STARTING NEXT WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL WIND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN AROUND DAY 7 OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. THIS CONTINUES TO OCCUR EACH DAY PROGRESSIVELY PRODUCING THIS SYSTEM AROUND DAY 7 GOING BACK AT LEAST TO A WEEK AGO. WE CAN ONLY TAKE IT SERIOUSLY IF OTHER MODELS START TO AGREE. TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT KCLT...FOG IS ALREADY FORMING IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT...AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS LOW VFR...AT LEAST MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE RUC WAS PREFERRED FOR ITS IFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH A WARM AND HUMID UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE... AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL... APPROACHING 10 KNOTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHEN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR FOG AT NC SITES AND KAND BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT SC SITES...AND MVFR CIGS SW OF KAVL. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK. CONVECTION NOW IN CENTRAL TN AND AL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT REACHES THE NC MOUNTAINS IN A FEW HOURS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN SEE NO REASON NOT TO CARRY THIS AT ALL SITES. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...APPROACHING 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM. BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z KCLT HIGH 87% HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 94% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 88% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAT NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/PM SHORT TERM...LG LONG TERM...DEO/VISIN AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
153 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MO THIS AFTERNOON. SFC LOW STACKED NICELY JUST BELOW IT. GOOD MID LEVEL JET ORIENTED DIRECTLY OVER THE MID STATE WITH SOME APPARENT DIFFLUENCE ABOVE. THIS IS ALL HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE. LCL LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW AND RADAR HAS INDICATED ROTATION WITH SOME OF THESE CELLS OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS. DIFFLUENCE AND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE APPRECIABLE AND WE EVEN RECEIVED A LARGE HAIL REPORT AN HOUR OR SO AGO. MOVING FORWARD...WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR SOME OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH AS THEY ARE NOW WITHIN THE RAIN COOLED SECTOR. WILL FIRST ADDRESS THE FLOOD WATCH. WILL ELECT TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 AM WED MORNING. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE MAIN SYSTEM IS STILL LOCATED BACK ACROSS MO. HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MS AND NRN AL TOWARD 01Z. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. EMBEDDED HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPORAL EXPANSION. AS FOR AN AREAL EXPANSION?...TODAYS HEAVIER CELLS WERE RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH THERE EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THEREFORE...NO NEED TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE AREA. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE UPCOMING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION?.... LOWER LEVELS WILL BE RAIN COOLED. BUT...SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO US. FURTHERMORE...JET ENERGY WILL MOVE EASTWARD BUT AT A VERY SLOW CLIP. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS TO REACH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AND WEAKEN. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE DOWNSWING. THAT SAID...WE`LL STILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB SEVERE. PCLDY SKIES TO RETURN WED NT AND THU WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. IN THE EXT FCST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS FOR OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM IS RATHER SMALL IN AREAL COVERAGE HOWEVER. I WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD OUT WAY. TEMPS WILL WARM AND POPS WILL LOWER TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE. ONE FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE SHORT TERM...WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR SOME OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES NOW FROM THE WATCH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 66 81 64 84 / 70 60 20 20 CLARKSVILLE 64 79 62 83 / 60 50 20 20 CROSSVILLE 65 75 61 78 / 80 60 40 30 COLUMBIA 66 81 64 85 / 60 60 20 20 LAWRENCEBURG 66 81 63 85 / 60 60 40 30 WAVERLY 64 79 61 84 / 50 50 20 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TNZ023>025- 056>058-060-061-093>095. && $$ 21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
106 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .MESOSCALE UPDATE... LAPS CAPES ARE AMPLIFIED ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WITH HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. WESTERN AREAS WEST OF I-65 ARE GENERALLY RAIN COOLED NOW. BUT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM CLEARING ANY WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A LITTLE LONGER. STORMS ARE GENERALLY MOVING NE AT AROUND 35 MPH. PLATEAU WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES COULD COME INTO PLAY AS WE GO FORWARD. AS FOR THE UPCOMING 7 DAY PACKAGE. WILL BE WORKING ON THE DISCUSSION AND GRIDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION MAY BE ON THE SHORT SIDE GIVEN THE CURRENT BUSY CONDITIONS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/ UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION. AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS/NEAR ALL TERMINALS AT ISSUANCE. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN BETWEEN STORMS...BUT WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS/TS VIS AND CIG WILL FALL INTO IFR CATEGORY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. IF A TERMINAL EXPERIENCES ONE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS...HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 8-10KTS. WHILE THIS ROUND OF WEATHER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS EVENING. TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION SO HAVE HANDLED WITH VC. LOOK FOR UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNGER PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/ UPDATE...UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NW AR THIS MORNING AND IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE. DEEP MOISTURE FETCH IS EVIDENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NE TOWARD SW MIDDLE TN. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SW...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE MID STATE TODAY. WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD...SO FAR THERE ARE NO WATCH BOXES TO OUR SOUTH. BUT...GFS ELUDES TOWARD DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE RAINFALL WONT ARRIVE UNTIL A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. 850 MB SPEEDS WILL RUN AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER LOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FLOOD POTENTIAL IS STILL IN LINE ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR SOUTHWESTERN THIRD. 3 HOUR GUIDANCE IS ROUGHLY AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. AREAL AVERAGES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS COULD SEE CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS THAT REACH OR SURPASS THAT LEVEL. THEREFORE...FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE LOW TO MID 70S TEMPS AT 18Z. SINCE HIGH TEMPS ARE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT LEVELS...THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO THE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ023>025- 056>058-060-061-093>095. && $$ 21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION. && .AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS/NEAR ALL TERMINALS AT ISSUANCE. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN BETWEEN STORMS...BUT WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS/TS VIS AND CIG WILL FALL INTO IFR CATEGORY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. IF A TERMINAL EXPERIENCES ONE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS...HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 8-10KTS. WHILE THIS ROUND OF WEATHER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS EVENING. TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION SO HAVE HANDLED WITH VC. LOOK FOR UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNGER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/ UPDATE...UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NW AR THIS MORNING AND IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE. DEEP MOISTURE FETCH IS EVIDENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NE TOWARD SW MIDDLE TN. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SW...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE MID STATE TODAY. WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD...SO FAR THERE ARE NO WATCH BOXES TO OUR SOUTH. BUT...GFS ELUDES TOWARD DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE RAINFALL WONT ARRIVE UNTIL A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. 850 MB SPEEDS WILL RUN AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER LOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FLOOD POTENTIAL IS STILL IN LINE ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR SOUTHWESTERN THIRD. 3 HOUR GUIDANCE IS ROUGHLY AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. AREAL AVERAGES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS COULD SEE CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS THAT REACH OR SURPASS THAT LEVEL. THEREFORE...FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE LOW TO MID 70S TEMPS AT 18Z. SINCE HIGH TEMPS ARE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT LEVELS...THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO THE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ023>025- 056>058-060-061-093>095. && $$ 27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
848 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .UPDATE...UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NW AR THIS MORNING AND IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE. DEEP MOISTURE FETCH IS EVIDENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NE TOWARD SW MIDDLE TN. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SW...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE MID STATE TODAY. WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD...SO FAR THERE ARE NO WATCH BOXES TO OUR SOUTH. BUT...GFS ELUDES TOWARD DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE RAINFALL WONT ARRIVE UNTIL A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. 850 MB SPEEDS WILL RUN AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER LOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FLOOD POTENTIAL IS STILL IN LINE ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR SOUTHWESTERN THIRD. 3 HOUR GUIDANCE IS ROUGHLY AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. AREAL AVERAGES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS COULD SEE CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS THAT REACH OR SURPASS THAT LEVEL. THEREFORE...FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE LOW TO MID 70S TEMPS AT 18Z. SINCE HIGH TEMPS ARE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT LEVELS...THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO THE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/ UPDATE... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. AVIATION... MCS THAT IMPACTED THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING HAS EXITED THE MID STATE...BUT NEXT MCS MOVING NE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI WILL AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS DURING THE DAY TODAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BRINGS SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CKV/BNA AROUND 15-16Z...WITH HRRR INDICATING PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE LATER TOWARDS 22Z AT CSV WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHAMBURGER PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/ DISCUSSION... .FLASH FLOOD POTENTAL REMAINS FOR PARTS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE... .POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IN THE MID STATE... STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM LOUISIANA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AND DURING THE DAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR 2 INCHES IN A VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE JUICED TO THE HILT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL BE MAXED OUT. AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND RELATIVELY COOL 500 MBAR TEMPS ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DESPITE LIMITED HEATING TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. I EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO WORK UP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD. LOOKS TO ME LIKE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE RETARDED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN. ON WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ND INTO GREAT LAKES REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BACK DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SO LOOK FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLIES DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF SHORT WAVES. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ023>025- 056>058-060-061-093>095. && $$ 21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
610 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .UPDATE... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... MCS THAT IMPACTED THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING HAS EXITED THE MID STATE...BUT NEXT MCS MOVING NE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI WILL AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS DURING THE DAY TODAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BRINGS SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CKV/BNA AROUND 15-16Z...WITH HRRR INDICATING PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE LATER TOWARDS 22Z AT CSV WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHAMBURGER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/ DISCUSSION... ..FLASH FLOOD POTENTAL REMAINS FOR PARTS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ..POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IN THE MID STATE... STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM LOUISIANA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AND DURING THE DAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR 2 INCHES IN A VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE JUICED TO THE HILT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL BE MAXED OUT. AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND RELATIVELY COOL 500 MBAR TEMPS ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DESPITE LIMITED HEATING TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. I EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO WORK UP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD. LOOKS TO ME LIKE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE RETARDED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN. ON WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ND INTO GREAT LAKES REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BACK DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SO LOOK FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLIES DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF SHORT WAVES. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ023>025-056>058- 060-061-093>095. && $$ 55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1130 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/ UPDATE... FIRST ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NEXT ROUND IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE EXPANDING AND BLOSSOMING OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. KRM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/ SYNOPSIS... PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BELLES SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... FOCUS REMAINS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE FOR EARLY JUNE TRACKING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVES US CAUSE FOR ATTENTION. FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL OVERSPREADING OUR FORECAST AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ENHANCED SHEAR CAUSES A CONCERN FOR A TORNADIC POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING. ON TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... LINGERING UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE SHOULD FINALLY END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. ON THURSDAY WE MAY CATCH A BREAK FROM THE RAIN...HOWEVER A SLIGHT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HEATING AS ONE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES JUST EAST OF OUR AREA...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY. AS THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD ALOFT INTO OUR REGION...NEVERTHELESS WITH HIGH SOIL MOISTURE THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. BELLES && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE NEXT ROUND OF SHRAS/TSRAS IS ALREADY STREAMING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. AT KMEM...KMKL AND KTUP CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AS MORE SHRAS/TSRAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON AREAL COVERAGE WILL LESSEN AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR SO CONTINUED WITH A VCTS THROUGH 11/03Z. FOR KJBR...EXPECT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSRAS AT KJBR WILL BE WITH THE UPPER LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR OCNL IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON TUESDAY. WIND WILL BE SOUTH 7-9 KTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND 12 KTS TUESDAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SJM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD- CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS. MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT. MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS- CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS- MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA. TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL- CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN- HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON- MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014 .AVIATION... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND THE TERMINALS. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY AT KAUS...HAVE TAKEN MENTION OF RAIN AND THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AS CHANCES ARE DECREASING. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NUMERICAL MODELS...IN ADDITION TO THE WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE HINT AT A DECK OF CLOUDS COMING IN BETWEEN THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND THE WEAK FRONT TO THE WEST. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE KEPT THE HIGH END MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS (8-12Z) AT THE I-35 TAF SITES. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 11-13Z CAUSING AN INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. KDRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/ UPDATE... WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL HELP STABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. ELSEWHERE... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER. BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE... SEE NO REASON TO ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS...WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE LINEAR MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. SOME SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO FORM OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY/CAPE AND THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AS FRONT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD FORCING. HOWEVER...HAVE LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS AND WHERE SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MAY TRACK. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND HAVE RESTRICTED SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE FAR EAST IN THE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS. NO RAIN AND A WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS BUILDS IT INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE OTHER MODELS KEEP IT OVER MEXICO. THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND ALONG A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND EVEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS...GEM AND NAVGEM SHOW A DRY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SILENT 10S AND KEEP MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARD THE ECMWF...THEN POPS WOULD LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH READINGS OF 100 TO 105. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 91 68 95 75 / 30 - - - 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 91 66 94 74 / 30 - - - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 67 95 73 / 30 - - - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 88 66 92 71 / 30 - - - 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 98 74 103 77 / 20 - - - 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 88 67 93 74 / 30 - - - 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 69 99 74 / 30 - - - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 67 94 73 / 30 - - - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 91 69 93 75 / 40 20 - - - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 93 70 96 75 / 30 - - - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 70 97 75 / 30 - - - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014 .UPDATE... WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL HELP STABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. ELSEWHERE... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER. BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE... SEE NO REASON TO ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS...WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/ AVIATION... HAVE MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WAS STABILIZED ENOUGH BY THE MCS EARLIER IN THE DAY SO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THAT SAID ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES VISIBLE ON RADAR. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP IN FROM 01-04Z JUST FOR SHOWERS RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. A COUPLE HOURS OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10-13Z TOMORROW MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. HAVE LEFT THE TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS SERRANIAS DEL BURRO THUNDERSTORMS MAY WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER LATER THIS EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE LINEAR MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. SOME SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO FORM OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY/CAPE AND THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AS FRONT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD FORCING. HOWEVER...HAVE LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS AND WHERE SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MAY TRACK. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND HAVE RESTRICTED SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE FAR EAST IN THE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS. NO RAIN AND A WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS BUILDS IT INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE OTHER MODELS KEEP IT OVER MEXICO. THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND ALONG A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND EVEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS...GEM AND NAVGEM SHOW A DRY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SILENT 10S AND KEEP MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARD THE ECMWF...THEN POPS WOULD LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH READINGS OF 100 TO 105. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 91 68 95 75 / 30 - - - 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 91 66 94 74 / 30 - - - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 67 95 73 / 30 - - - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 88 66 92 71 / 30 - - - 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 98 74 103 77 / 20 - - - 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 88 67 93 74 / 30 - - - 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 69 99 74 / 30 - - - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 67 94 73 / 30 - - - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 91 69 93 75 / 40 20 - - - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 93 70 96 75 / 30 - - - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 70 97 75 / 30 - - - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
250 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA...WILL HAVE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. AS OF 900 PM EDT MONDAY... WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS ATMOSPHERE INSTABILITY WANES. LEANED POPS TONIGHT TOWARDS THE HIRESW-ARW AND HRRR WHICH CAPTURED THIS EVENINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE BEST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHAPED TOWARDS THE LAMP GUIDANCE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. FOR TUESDAY...A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS OF 550 PM EDT MONDAY... INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT TO MATCH UP WITH WSR-88D KFCX TRENDS. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW SPREAD CONVECTION EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS EVENING. AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY... WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CUT OFF SO FAR BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE OROGRAPHIC AIDED REGIONS. HOWEVER SEEING SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ACROSS THE SOUTH- EAST AHEAD OF A FAINT WAVE...REMNANT OF THE EARLIER TN VALLEY MCS...THAT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS NW NC THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTH AND SW SO LEAVING IN A LOW POP MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF THIS EVENING... AND ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH. OTRW FORCING REMAINS LIMITED TONIGHT AS COULD EASILY SEE THINGS GO BASICALLY DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE BUT GIVEN LACK OF SHRA SO FAR APPEARS COVERAGE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LOW SPOTS OUT EAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV LOWS IN MOUNTAINS PER LOWER DEWPOINTS WHILE TRENDING TOWARD THE NAM OUT EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY AS SE HEIGHTS BUILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE RIDING NE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST LIFT AGAIN WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE TO THE WEST WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS LACKING OVERALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEST WINDS ALOFT CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DOES DEEPEN WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WHILE ANY ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH DOWN THE FRONT GETS DAMPENED UPON SPILLING EAST INTO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. APPEARS BEST FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE THE FRONT/DEEPER MOISTURE INTERSECT AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL BACKING TO A MORE SW COMPONENT TAKES SHAPE. ELSW THINKING MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE DESPITE HIGH THETA-E AND INSTABILITY PER STRONG HEATING ESPCLY OUT EAST. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF AFTERNOON LIKELYS FAR WEST AND BLUE RIDGE SW OF ROANOKE. HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 90 SE PIEDMONT PER EARLY DOWNSLOPE...AND 80S ELSW OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND FAR NW WHERE CLOUDS MAY AGAIN HOLD VALUES IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP HEAD NORTHEAST TO NEAR AND THEN ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...RESULTING IN A SLOW MOVING...ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL SLOW MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THEN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD...CULMINATING WITH PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRANSLATE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...THERE WILL BE TREND TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY COOLER READINGS EACH DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION INCREASE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 110 PM EDT MONDAY... THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH ONLY SOME NARROW WINDOWS FOR LIMITED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...OR EVEN SLOWER MOVING DETACHED UPPER LOW OUTSIDE THE MAIN JET STREAM...WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A 12 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING STILL OCCURRING...WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FEATURE WILL MAKE LIMITED MOVEMENT TOWARD THE AREA...BUT BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIMITED CONVECTION...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL BE EITHER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. ITS INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND REBOUND ONLY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME BEING...THE LULL LASTING INTO LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ENTERS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY LOW AND MID CLOUDS TO START...WITH CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THE APPROACHING MCS OVER TENNESSEE SOON TO ENTER THE AREA. CLOUD COVER IS PATCHY IN NATURE...AND WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN VISIBILITIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE IN MOST LOCATIONS IS AT OR NEAR SATURATION. AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER SCATTERS/THINS EVEN FOR A SHORT WHILE MAY FOG DOWN QUICKLY. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS KEEPING CEILINGS VFR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH KBLF AND OTHER AREAS ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES WILL LOCALLY BECOME IFR AS THE FLOW BANKS MOISTURE AGAINST THE NEARBY TERRAIN. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE AS HEATING KICKS IN...HOWEVER EXPECT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO APPROACH BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. AS SUCH...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT THIS POINT THAT HAVE ENTERED TSRA INTO ALL TAFS...ALTHOUGH TIMING WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AIRPORTS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...LIMITING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1SM AS THEY PASS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THAT THE DECREASE IN COVERAGE WILL BE MORE GRADUAL HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...OPENING INTO A TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE... WITH THE THREAT FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS ALSO INCREASING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING THUS RESULTING IN A MULTIPLE DAY THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WED-FRI WITH A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THUS...PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. WITH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL AROUND...WILL SEE MORE OF AN ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THREAT FOR CONVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR BY SUNDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/NF NEAR TERM...JH/KK/NF SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...NF/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
111 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA...WILL HAVE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. AS OF 900 PM EDT MONDAY... WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS ATMOSPHERE INSTABILITY WANES. LEANED POPS TONIGHT TOWARDS THE HIRESW-ARW AND HRRR WHICH CAPTURED THIS EVENINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE BEST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHAPED TOWARDS THE LAMP GUIDANCE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. FOR TUESDAY...A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS OF 550 PM EDT MONDAY... INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT TO MATCH UP WITH WSR-88D KFCX TRENDS. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW SPREAD CONVECTION EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS EVENING. AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY... WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CUT OFF SO FAR BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE OROGRAPHIC AIDED REGIONS. HOWEVER SEEING SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ACROSS THE SOUTH- EAST AHEAD OF A FAINT WAVE...REMNANT OF THE EARLIER TN VALLEY MCS...THAT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS NW NC THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTH AND SW SO LEAVING IN A LOW POP MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF THIS EVENING... AND ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH. OTRW FORCING REMAINS LIMITED TONIGHT AS COULD EASILY SEE THINGS GO BASICALLY DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE BUT GIVEN LACK OF SHRA SO FAR APPEARS COVERAGE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LOW SPOTS OUT EAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV LOWS IN MOUNTAINS PER LOWER DEWPOINTS WHILE TRENDING TOWARD THE NAM OUT EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY AS SE HEIGHTS BUILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE RIDING NE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST LIFT AGAIN WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE TO THE WEST WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS LACKING OVERALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEST WINDS ALOFT CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DOES DEEPEN WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WHILE ANY ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH DOWN THE FRONT GETS DAMPENED UPON SPILLING EAST INTO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. APPEARS BEST FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE THE FRONT/DEEPER MOISTURE INTERSECT AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL BACKING TO A MORE SW COMPONENT TAKES SHAPE. ELSW THINKING MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE DESPITE HIGH THETA-E AND INSTABILITY PER STRONG HEATING ESPCLY OUT EAST. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF AFTERNOON LIKELYS FAR WEST AND BLUE RIDGE SW OF ROANOKE. HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 90 SE PIEDMONT PER EARLY DOWNSLOPE...AND 80S ELSW OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND FAR NW WHERE CLOUDS MAY AGAIN HOLD VALUES IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP HEAD NORTHEAST TO NEAR AND THEN ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...RESULTING IN A SLOW MOVING...ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL SLOW MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THEN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD...CULMINATING WITH PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRANSLATE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...THERE WILL BE TREND TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY COOLER READINGS EACH DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION INCREASE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 110 PM EDT MONDAY... THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH ONLY SOME NARROW WINDOWS FOR LIMITED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...OR EVEN SLOWER MOVING DETACHED UPPER LOW OUTSIDE THE MAIN JET STREAM...WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A 12 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING STILL OCCURRING...WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FEATURE WILL MAKE LIMITED MOVEMENT TOWARD THE AREA...BUT BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIMITED CONVECTION...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL BE EITHER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. ITS INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND REBOUND ONLY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 750 PM EDT MONDAY... FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO EJECT OUT OF SLOW MOVING CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LOW IMPACTING THE CWA NOW...WITH SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ROA/LYH AND VCTS FOR DAN FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF IN ANTICIPATING OF THIS ACTIVITY SKIRTING THROUGH THE AREA. -SHRA NOTED ALSO IN FAR SW VA...WHICH COULD IMPACT BLF/BCB LATER...BUT LIKELY WILL DISSIPATE. MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH -SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS THIS FIRST WAVE PASSES BY. CLOUD COVER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS PROBLEMATIC. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER...BUT SOME OF EACH IS POSSIBLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LWB...GENERALLY PLANNING ON MVFR VSBYS AND MOST CIGS AOA LOW END VFR. FOR TUE...A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NE TOWARD THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SIMILAR TO TODAY. A WARM ADVECTION WING IS ALSO APPARENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL INTRODUCE VCTS FOR 18Z AND BEYOND WITH MORE SPECIFIC TIMING OF TSRA TO FOLLOW IN LATER TAFS. WINDS WSW 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SSW-SW 7-10KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE ROA/DAN/BLF. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FOR MID WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE MS VALLEY TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEY WED/THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE THREAT FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS ALSO INCREASING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING THUS RESULTING IN A MULTIPLE DAY THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WED-FRI WITH A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THUS...PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. WITH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL AROUND...WILL SEE MORE OF AN ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THREAT FOR CONVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR BY SUNDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/NF NEAR TERM...JH/KK/NF SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
949 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 MAIN OVERNIGHT FOCUS IS ON THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. TIMING HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR WITH BRINGING THIS BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT THEN SHOULD GET INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD 3-5AM AND OUT OF WESTERN WISCONSIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. 0-3KM MUCAPE CONTINUES TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON DOWN TO AROUND 300-500 J/KG. SO THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCALLY PRETTY LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 25-35MPH AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THOUGH AND THE WINDS COME TO AN END. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 AT 3 PM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HUDSON BAY. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR...AND THEN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS... MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC AND DEEPEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE MUCH OF THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL GO TO SATURATING THE VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE HIGHEST CHANCES /55 TO 65 PERCENT/ OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS INTERSTATE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES RANGING FROM 24 TO 54 PERCENT. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES...FALLING FROM 14C AT 12.12Z...TO 6 TO 8C BY 12.18Z...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 FOR THE WEEKEND...THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER AT THIS DEVELOPMENT AND MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY ON SATURDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF. WITH THIS MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE 2 CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST WILL OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THEN FOLLOW CORFIDI VECTORS SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI. MEANWHILE THE SECOND COMPLEX DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS COMPLEX WILL ALSO FOLLOW CORFIDI VECTORS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION...BUT THE CAPE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS MOVES THIS FRONT NORTH TO THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE ECMWF KEEPS THIS FRONT CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 80. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...OPTED TO STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TAF PERIOD ARE MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND COLD FRONT AFTER 09Z AT RST AND LSE TAF SITES...AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER CHANCES WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DIURNAL SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES. COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 21Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST 11.18Z GFS/NAM MODELS SHOW THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z- 14Z THURSDAY. INSTABILITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS MINIMAL AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VICINITY OF SHOWERS AT BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 08Z AT RST AND 10Z AT LSE. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO GRADIENT TIGHTENING BEHIND FRONT AND ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBACH SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...DTJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 WATER VAPOR AND RAP MODEL 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS AMBLING EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF CIRRUS TIED TO THE LOW COVERING MOST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE 50S. FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED LOW KICKING NORTHEAST TO NEAR KSTL BY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS COOLS THE AIR ALOFT FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR BLUE RIVER SHOWS CAPE OF 100-200J/KG WITH A CAP IN THE 700-600MB LAYER...SO THINKING THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL...AND THUS REMOVED MENTION FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO TOP OF IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARD NORTHEAST IL BY 12Z. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN WI AS THAT CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND DRIFTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO REGION LATER ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT DEPARTING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...BUT NAM SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE AROUND 1100J/KG WITH 20-25KT OF BULK SHEAR. THIS IS BASED ON SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THINKING THIS IS A BIT HIGH WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MORE IN THE 50S. THEREFORE...REALIZED CAPE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 500- 1000J/KG RANGE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON CONVECTION FOR A WIND THREAT. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND COLD FRONT. ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE 3-8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 7-11C RANGE. MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/... PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS/SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION. ECMWF GENERATES 1000-1500J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WITH 20-25KT OF BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SEVERE THREAT. LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT THEN LAYS OUT AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/CENTRAL IA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL TROUGHS LOOK TO RIPPLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MISSOURI WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT KEEPING SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE AREA CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1017 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE STAYED SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER SO FAR THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR DO MOVE A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF SHOWERS DO BEGIN TO CROSS THE BORDER. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE QUITE EXPANSIVE AND OPAQUE CURRENTLY...WHICH IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR THE TEMPERATURE TO RISE VERY QUICKLY. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IF THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...SHOWERS HAVE STAYED SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER SO FAR THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR DO MOVE A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MONROE TO SHEBOYGAN. WILL LIKELY SEE LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE AREAS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. COULD SEE SOME LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES IN AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN. THOUGH THE RAIN WILL WIND DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOWER CIGS MAY HANG ON RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON EASTWARD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER OK WILL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD DURING THIS PERIOD REACHING E CENTRAL IL BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL TRACK ALONG WITH ITS MDT RAINFALL...BUT A CONSENSUS OF MODELS SUGGESTS RAIN IS LIKELY OVER SE WI TNT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL WI. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE PRESENT...AND SUPPORTED BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA. PWS WILL RISE UP TO 1.4 INCHES IN FAR SE WI WITH SOUNDINGS BECOMING FAIRLY SATURATED. THUS PCPN EFFICIENCY WILL BE HIGH WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL. CURRENTLY FORECASTING ABOUT ONE HALF INCH SOUTH OF MKE BUT EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHETHER MORE OR LESS OCCURS THROUGHOUT THE CWA. BEFORE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TNT...EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SRN WI AS INITIAL WARM ADVECTION AND PVA MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKE. WAS TEMPTED TO GO COOLER WITH TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TRENDS BUT MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR AT TIMES. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. RAIN WILL LIKELY HANG ON OVER SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH WED MORNING UNTIL THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH CAN MOVE EASTWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. LOOK FOR RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOME SUNSHINE WEST OF MADISON IN THE AFTERNOON...SO RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S. CLOUDS AND AN EASTERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S IN SOUTHEAST WI. QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN WED NIGHT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE. WARM ADVECTION AS WINDS TURN FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH WILL BRING LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER. INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A COLD FRONT WILL TREK THROUGH WISCONSIN ON THU...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THERE ARE STILL SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE EXTENT OF ANY PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS. WITH SOUTHERN WI IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION...THE 850MB FRONT TIED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...AND LITTLE MOISTURE... THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOME OF THE LARGER-SCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. THEREFORE...SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE PROBABLE ALONG THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER CAPE VALUES AND MINIMAL SHEAR. TEMPS SHOULD HAVE TIME TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST WI. THU NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S. LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. ANOTHER FANTASTIC STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THESE SHORTWAVES OVER SOUTHERN WI IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM...AT LEAST IN THE UPPER 70S BUT MORE LIKELY THE 80S. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... LOW PRESSURE OVER OK WILL MOVE TO EAST CENTRAL IL AND EVENTUALLY INTO MI LATE TNT AND WED. THE LOW WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER FAR SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN LIKELY OVER THE SE WI TAF SITES TNT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BUT CIGS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT AND MVFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TNT WITH THE RAINFALL. THE LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AM. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
641 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 WATER VAPOR AND RAP MODEL 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS AMBLING EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF CIRRUS TIED TO THE LOW COVERING MOST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE 50S. FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED LOW KICKING NORTHEAST TO NEAR KSTL BY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS COOLS THE AIR ALOFT FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR BLUE RIVER SHOWS CAPE OF 100-200J/KG WITH A CAP IN THE 700-600MB LAYER...SO THINKING THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL...AND THUS REMOVED MENTION FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO TOP OF IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARD NORTHEAST IL BY 12Z. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN WI AS THAT CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND DRIFTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO REGION LATER ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT DEPARTING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...BUT NAM SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE AROUND 1100J/KG WITH 20-25KT OF BULK SHEAR. THIS IS BASED ON SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THINKING THIS IS A BIT HIGH WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MORE IN THE 50S. THEREFORE...REALIZED CAPE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 500- 1000J/KG RANGE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON CONVECTION FOR A WIND THREAT. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND COLD FRONT. ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE 3-8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 7-11C RANGE. MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/... PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS/SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION. ECMWF GENERATES 1000-1500J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WITH 20-25KT OF BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SEVERE THREAT. LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT THEN LAYS OUT AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/CENTRAL IA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL TROUGHS LOOK TO RIPPLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 AN EASTERLY FLOW OF DRY AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AROUND RST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ITS TOO LOW TO EVEN INCLUDE A VCSH AT THIS TIME. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO STAY AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 LATEST STAGE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA AS OF 07Z WAS 11.9 FEET. THE RIVER APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 11.9 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...AJ HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 WATER VAPOR AND RAP MODEL 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS AMBLING EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF CIRRUS TIED TO THE LOW COVERING MOST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE 50S. FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED LOW KICKING NORTHEAST TO NEAR KSTL BY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS COOLS THE AIR ALOFT FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR BLUE RIVER SHOWS CAPE OF 100-200J/KG WITH A CAP IN THE 700-600MB LAYER...SO THINKING THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL...AND THUS REMOVED MENTION FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO TOP OF IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARD NORTHEAST IL BY 12Z. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN WI AS THAT CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND DRIFTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO REGION LATER ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT DEPARTING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...BUT NAM SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE AROUND 1100J/KG WITH 20-25KT OF BULK SHEAR. THIS IS BASED ON SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THINKING THIS IS A BIT HIGH WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MORE IN THE 50S. THEREFORE...REALIZED CAPE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 500- 1000J/KG RANGE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON CONVECTION FOR A WIND THREAT. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND COLD FRONT. ECMWF MOST BULLISH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE 3-8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 7-11C RANGE. MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/... PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS/SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION. ECMWF GENERATES 1000-1500J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WITH 20-25KT OF BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SEVERE THREAT. LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT THEN LAYS OUT AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/CENTRAL IA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL TROUGHS LOOK TO RIPPLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014 HIGH LEVEL VFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KANSAS MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...THE 10.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS BEEN SUGGESTING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS NOW THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SCATTERED DECK AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET OR SO AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEN EXPECTING ALL THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014 LATEST STAGE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA AS OF 07Z WAS 11.9 FEET. THE RIVER APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 11.9 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
422 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY... TODAY/TONIGHT...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY MAINTAINING DEEP W/SW FLOW AND HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS DO NOT GENERATE MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THINNING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT HEATING TO START OFF THE DAY AND EASTWARD MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MORE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR LIFT WITH COOLER TEMPS...AROUND -11C...AT 500MB. SO LIKELY RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. HOWEVER FARTHER NORTH IT IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE. WHERE IT DOES FORM IT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST ONCE AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER AS LONG OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE EVENING AND RAIN CHANCES ENDING OVER LAND AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING GENERALLY INTO THE LOW 70S. FRI-SAT...EASTERN CONUS TROUGH GETS NUDGED EAST BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROPS SE TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FRI WHICH SHOULD REDUCE STORM COVERAGE SLIGHTLY (40 PERCENT) NORTH OF ORLANDO. HIGHER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS REQUIRES MAINTAINING LIKELY (60 PERCENT) POPS. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH FRI WHICH WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN WITH COLLISION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. ON SAT...WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND LESS WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LESS DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND PRODUCE A SEA BREEZE COLLISION A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND BUT STILL ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. EXPECT SCATTERED LATE AFTN STORMS THAT PUSH OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST IN THE EARLY TO MID EVE. THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN COOL 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C. COMBINED WITH SOLAR HEATING TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE BUOYANCY...AS WELL AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS CONTAINING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. SUN-WED...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER GA/FL PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/FILL. IN RESPONSE THE LOW LEVEL (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH AND MAINTAIN ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION NEAR 30N LAT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN EARLIER ONSET AND PENETRATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH TIME. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFTN STORMS BUT THE FOCUS WILL INCREASINGLY BE OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN PENINSULA MID WEEK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH THE STALLED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE. && .MARINE... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. W/SW WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS BECOME S/SW INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SW INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE. AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. FRI...OFFSHORE (W TO SW) FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. A LATE SEA BREEZE OUT OF THE SE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST. A HIGH COVERAGE OF STORMS...SOME STRONG...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE ESP SOUTH OF THE CAPE. SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3 FT OFFSHORE. SAT-SUN...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS WHICH WILL DECREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALLOW AN EARLIER ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE ESP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STORMS OFFSHORE THE FL PENINSULA SAT AFTN/EVE. ON SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SO AFTN STORMS WILL TEND TO STAY OVER THE FL PENINSULA BUT SOME PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR ESP NORTH OF THE CAPE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 71 90 71 / 60 30 40 20 MCO 90 72 92 71 / 60 20 40 20 MLB 87 73 90 72 / 60 30 50 20 VRB 87 71 90 71 / 60 30 50 20 LEE 90 73 92 73 / 60 20 40 20 SFB 90 73 92 73 / 60 20 40 20 ORL 90 74 92 74 / 60 20 40 20 FPR 87 72 89 71 / 60 30 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH LONG TERM....KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS DIMINISHING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHED INSTABILITY AND NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED WITH A SECOND TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. FOR FRIDAY READINGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONGER RANGE MODELS NOW SHOWING THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS KEEPS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY MID- WEEK...DEEPER TROUGH TAKES HOLD IN THE WESTERN STATES...HELPING TO BUILD A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT TYPICALLY SUMMER PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. DO NOT THINK TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BUT WILL CARRY VCSH FOR AN HOUR AT AGS/DNL 06Z-07Z. RAINS FROM EARLIER TODAY AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY PROVIDE LIFR/IFR STRATUS CIGS 08Z-12Z ALL TERMINALS. DNL ALREADY CARRYING LIFR CIGS AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 13Z. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP IMPROVE RESTRICTED CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z. THE HEATING WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY...BUT THESE WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY. WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
349 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 329 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 Showers and Thunderstorms working their way eastward across the forecast area with the stronger activity already east of the turnpike at this time. Expect to see downward trend for next few hours, with weaker area of showers and isolated embedded thunder to work its way east to west out of the area by the noon hour. Expecting highs generally in the lower to middle 70s as cool advection at 850mb battles with sunshine and daytime heating. Warm advection aloft returns overnight over nocturnal inversions, and still anticipate lows in the 50s across the area. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 329 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 Friday mid level temperatures rise several degrees C and should boost highs back to the upper 70s near 80 with dry conditions expected. After weak mid level ridging moves over aloft on Friday, west to southwest flow returns early Saturday. This should bring overnight lows up a bit back into the upper 60s near 60 followed by highs in the middle 80s. GFS still generates QPF during the daytime hours but think cap is strong enough without a strong lifting mechanism to keep only clouds at this time. Think better chances for storms come late in the day as storms fire along the dryline in western central Kansas and northward along the front in Nebraska. The shortwave trof moving across the northern plains sends front southward in the evening and overnight hours. Could see development of some kind of MCS but still differences in models and timing and will keep forecast more general at this time with high chances for precipitation Sunday shifting west to east through the day. Storms could be strong to severe with this system. Mon-Wed...Still uncertainty for early next week as to where boundary ends up for Monday and how fast the next upper trof coming onshore the west coast in this period can move eastward. Kept precipitation chances each day and does look like an overall warming trend is in order with highs back in the upper 80s near 90. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 Showers and Thunderstorms should continue moving east through the morning. The latest HRRR seems to have a good handle on the overall progression. Therefore have adjusted the timing in the forecasts based on the HRRR. Biggest uncertainty is whether MVFR conditions will move in. OBs upstream generally show VFR conditions, even within the stratiform rain. Therefore have backed off on the MVFR conditions and will monitor trends. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
226 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 845 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 GRIDS AND ZONES WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY FOR THE CANCELLATION OF THE REMAINDER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282. UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE ADDITION OF GOVE COUNTY TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282. ALSO UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS BEING SEVERE. A COLD FRONT OVER NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE...AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX...SO USED THIS ALONG WITH NAM AND SREF FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DEBATED ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT INDICATE ANY FOG AND JUST HINTED AT LOW STRATUS. THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO GET A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THAT SITUATION LATER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S EAST. THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND SLIDE SOUTH AND THEN EAST. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM RELATE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME STAGNANT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL FORECASTS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWING A SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS LESS THAN STELLAR FOR AGREEMENT. MOST MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE JET POSITION...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DISAGREEMENT BECOMES MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS BRING IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH WOULD INSINUATE A MORE DRY PATTERN. HOWEVER...GFS AND DGEX BRING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA. ALL GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR TUESDAY...BUT DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY REGARDING HOW LONG THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE. DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS NOT VERY GOOD AT THIS POINT. MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN INDICATING ACTIVE WET WEATHER...BUT NOW GUIDANCE IS MIXED. THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS A BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITHOUT MAJOR CHANGES...WHICH LEAVES SOME CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AFTER COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER SOME FORECASTS SHOW MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EVOLVES LATER IN THE WEEK WILL DETERMINE HOW AREAL TEMPERATURES UNFOLD. UNTIL MODEL FORECASTS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS LAYER AND MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AT KGLD AND KMCK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FS SHORT TERM...ALW LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
100 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014 ...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough kicking eastward across the Central Plains today. Meanwhile, weak upper level ridging across the Intermountain West will move eastward across the Northern and Central Rockies through this afternoon and through the Western High Plains tonight. Along with a fairly weak flow aloft and somewhat drier air moving southward into western Kansas behind a departing cold front early this morning, generally dry conditions are likely through tonight across central and southwest Kansas. Although, a few lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms will be possible across south central Kansas early this morning in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Much cooler temperatures are likely today as cooler air surges southward into western Kansas today behind a departing cold front. The NAM/GFS show H85 temperatures falling to around 15C across central Kansas today with near 20C across extreme southwest Kansas. As cloud cover decreases through this afternoon, highs can be expected up into the 70s(F) to near 80F. Look for lows down into the mid to upper 50s(F) tonight as southeasterly winds quickly return to western Kansas while surface high pressure slides southeast out of the Northern Plains into the Central Plains of Iowa, Missouri, and eastern Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 All of the morning NMM/ARW and NAM models in addition to several runs of the HRRR indicate high confidence in convection developing early this evening and spreading rapidly eastward into central Kansas as a QLCS. Models indicate a marked in increase in layer precipitable water through the late afternoon and evening, with SREF QPF values in excess of an inch. MUCAPES around 2000 J/KG in early afternoon were also forecast to increase to in excess of 3000 J/kg. This pre-storm environment thermodynamic in combination with ample 30 knots of deep bulk shear will be conducive to gaining a high confidence in a few rotating updrafts initially in our northwest counties or basically anywhere from around Kearny county through Scott City and Dighton. These hail producers will quickly develop a cold pool generating widespread slab-like convection eastward into central Kansas though mid evening with damaging wind the highest threat followed by potential for hail and flooding from very heavy rainfall. This morning`s flash flood guidance for 3 hours was as low as 2 inches across portions of the area still outlined by a flood watch, which will make flooding to occur easily in some of the areas that have had in excess of 400% of normal rainfall in the last week or more. Beyond this evening`s high probability convection episode, north surface winds will develop behind the convection as the front is forced southward. Models have indicated potential for showers and probably elevated storms continuing into in the far south east areas into the early daylight hours on Thursday. Much cooler conditions ion cool advection are expected Thursday afternoon with highs struggling through the 70s in most locations. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 Showers and thunderstorms will linger across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas overnight resulting in possible MVFR cigs through daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through late Thursday afternoon. Winds will become northerly around 20 to 30kt behind a cold front pushing southeastward across south central Kansas early this morning. Winds will become northeasterly while subsiding to around 10 to 20kt Thursday afternoon as surface high pressure drifts southeast across the Northern Plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 55 83 65 95 / 0 0 20 20 GCK 55 85 65 96 / 0 10 20 10 EHA 58 88 65 96 / 0 10 20 10 LBL 57 87 66 97 / 0 0 20 10 HYS 53 83 65 92 / 0 0 20 40 P28 57 84 65 89 / 0 0 10 30 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ030-031-046-065- 066-079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1117 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 845 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 GRIDS AND ZONES WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY FOR THE CANCELLATION OF THE REMAINDER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282. UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE ADDITION OF GOVE COUNTY TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282. ALSO UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS BEING SEVERE. A COLD FRONT OVER NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE...AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX...SO USED THIS ALONG WITH NAM AND SREF FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DEBATED ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT INDICATE ANY FOG AND JUST HINTED AT LOW STRATUS. THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO GET A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THAT SITUATION LATER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S EAST. THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND SLIDE SOUTH AND THEN EAST. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE NOT DOING WELL. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL UPPER TROUGH. THIS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY BUT IS WORSE TODAY. OVERALL THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE SREF LOOKED TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE AND WIND FIELD. THE GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN...SREF TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM TOO WARM AND THE UKMET TOO COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHOWN YESTERDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE AMOUNT OF CINH. THE NAM HAS AREA FULLY CAPPED WITH THE GFS LEAVING OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURRING. THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING THE AIR MASS CAPPED. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LARGE PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS HAVE COME UP ON THEIR SPEEDS WITH NEAR TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WESTERN HALF FOR MOST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAMPED THE WINDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. MAIN SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SHARPENING DRY LINE IS SETTING UP NEAR TO OR JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTABILITY AXIS AND MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO SETS IN THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE CINH IN THIS AREA. SO ADD A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE MAXES WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR TO TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS DO DEVELOP A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATURDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT ARE TALKED ABOUT IN THE NEXT PERIOD START SHOWING UP HERE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE OUTPUT LOOKING TO BE AFFECTING BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. ESSENTIALLY THE WEST TO NORTHWEST HALF LOOKS TO HAVE A RIGHT RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECT THIS AREA FROM LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THAT IN ADVANCE OF IT THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE SURGES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY LOW DEWPOINTS EXCEPT RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE THE EML AND THE SURFACE DRY LINE IS LOCATED. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT PROFILE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREAS. SO CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS AT THIS TIME. IT WILL GET HOT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO EXPANDED. CURRENTLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WILL HAVE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES. IF THE FUELS WERE FAVORABLE THE WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY BECOMES GREATER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ESSENTIALLY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SAME IDEA BUT DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. BUT ESSENTIALLY NO MATTER WHICH WAY YOU WANT TO GO...OUTPUT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED ACTIVE/WET PATTERN. THE ONE TENDENCY THAT THE ENSEMBLES LOOK TO BE TRENDING TOWARD IS A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW...SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG/FAR SOUTH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WHICH TENDS TO SUPPORT THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION. OVERALL THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT THE LATEST CRH_INIT RUN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY REMAINS DRY WHILE THE AIR MASS RELOADS LATER THAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT. THIS FRONT THEN REMAINS EITHER NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AREA OR WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A NEW FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRING THROUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND JET LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH THE QPF FIELDS INDICATING A MCS IN EACH OF THESE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INIT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS LAYER AND MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AT KGLD AND KMCK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING AND CONTINING THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FS SHORT TERM...ALW LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1212 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 Water vapor imagery showed the exiting mid-level trough advancing into the Ohio River valley with a weak mid-level ridge stretching across the Southern and Central Plains. A large mid-level trough was situated over Canada and clipping the Northern Plains. Models show this trough deepening and digging further south tonight, which will help to push an area of low pressure and an associated cold front eastward across the region. Additionally, a weak embedded shortwave was noted on water vapor imagery over northern Colorado. Models are in good agreement in this wave strengthening as it gets caught up in the frontal passage, with an MCS potentially developing overnight and tracking southeastward across the state. Short-range model runs have been consistent in keeping conditions dry across the region through early to mid evening, with the SW- to NE-oriented cold front likely advancing into north central Kansas between 03z-05z. The cap that`s currently in place should weaken this evening, but lapse rates don`t look to be that great with soundings showing deep moist-adiabatic conditions. MUCAPE values may be upwards of 2500-2800 J/kg with 0-6km bulk shear upwards of 20-30kts, so these conditions may be enough to get a few strong to severe thunderstorms to develop through late this evening as this line of storms enters into north central Kansas. The threats with the strongest storms would be large hail and damaging winds. However, another concern will be for the potential for some heavy rain and localized flash flooding as PWAT values are upwards of 1.7-1.9 inches. Many locations received 2-4" of rain from Monday`s system, resulting in very saturated ground, so the 1-hour flash flood guidance for much of the region is 1.5-1.9 inches. So this flash flood concern will need to be monitored through the overnight hours. As the cold front tracks across the region overnight, widespread post-frontal showers and thunderstorms are expected with north central Kansas likely drying out by Thursday morning. This cold front should be southeast of the area by mid morning with the post-frontal precipitation over eastern Kansas diminishing by late morning through early afternoon. As for temperatures, southerly winds and mostly clear skies allowed temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. With the increasing cloud cover overnight from the precipitation, low temperatures will be a bit warmer tonight with lows only dropping into the low/mid 60s. The combination of gradually decreasing cloud cover and northerly winds behind the front will result in below-normal temperatures for Thursday with highs only expected to reach into the middle/upper 70s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 A ridge of high pressure builds southeastward across eastern KS Thursday night with mostly clear skies and calm winds toward morning. This could lead to some patchy dense fog for areas of east central KS around sunrise Friday. Temps are expected to be cool with lows in the middle 50s. On Friday, the high moves off to the east while low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies, turning the winds to south. Highs are not expected to be too warm with mainly upper 70s expected. A piece of the western U.S. trough comes out onto the Plains Saturday and Saturday night with increasing chances for thunderstorms by Saturday evening. The front associated with this trough stalls near Kansas for the early to middle part of next week with disturbances in broadly cyclonic upper flow periodically moving through. While the best dynamics should be to our north, there will be enough lift with these systems in proximity to the front to give chances for thunderstorms each day. High temperatures for the weekend through the middle part of next week should be mostly in the 80s. With increasing low-level moisture, overnight lows from Sunday through Wednesday are forecast in the upper 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 Showers and Thunderstorms should continue moving east through the morning. The latest HRRR seems to have a good handle on the overall progression. Therefore have adjusted the timing in the forecasts based on the HRRR. Biggest uncertainty is whether MVFR conditions will move in. OBs upstream generally show VFR conditions, even within the stratiform rain. Therefore have backed off on the MVFR conditions and will monitor trends. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hennecke LONG TERM...GDP AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level shortwave trough pushing eastward across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a weak upper level ridge of high pressure is transitioning eastward across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a cold front is shifting southeastward out of western into central Kansas. Ample low level moisture lingers across western Kansas behind a departing cold front with observed surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s(F). && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 A surface cold front extended from eastern South Dakota to near Sidney, Nebraska slowly moving south through the Northern High Plains. An are of relative low pressure was developing over southeast Colorado with an attendant inverted surface trough extending northward toward the cold front. Regional WSR88D composite reflectivity was already showing clusters of surface based thunderstorms developing off the Palmer Divide as well as the Sangre de Cristo regions in Colorado. Ahead of the frontal boundary, southerly winds were in place with surface dew points in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees across the eastern Counties. Drier air existed west of Highway 83 where dew points were in the mid 40s but increasing. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 All of the morning NMM/ARW and NAM models in addition to several runs of the HRRR indicate high confidence in convection developing early this evening and spreading rapidly eastward into central Kansas as a QLCS. Models indicate a marked in increase in layer precipitable water through the late afternoon and evening, with SREF QPF values in excess of an inch. MUCAPES around 2000 J/KG in early afternoon were also forecast to increase to in excess of 3000 J/kg. This pre-storm environment thermodynamic in combination with ample 30 knots of deep bulk shear will be conducive to gaining a high confidence in a few rotating updrafts initially in our northwest counties or basically anywhere from around Kearny county through Scott City and Dighton. These hail producers will quickly develop a cold pool generating widespread slab-like convection eastward into central Kansas though mid evening with damaging wind the highest threat followed by potential for hail and flooding from very heavy rainfall. This morning`s flash flood guidance for 3 hours was as low as 2 inches across portions of the area still outlined by a flood watch, which will make flooding to occur easily in some of the areas that have had in excess of 400% of normal rainfall in the last week or more. Beyond this evening`s high probability convection episode, north surface winds will develop behind the convection as the front is forced southward. Models have indicated potential for showers and probably elevated storms continuing into in the far south east areas into the early daylight hours on Thursday. Much cooler conditions ion cool advection are expected Thursday afternoon with highs struggling through the 70s in most locations. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 Showers and thunderstorms will linger across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas overnight resulting in possible MVFR cigs through daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through late Thursday afternoon. Winds will become northerly around 20 to 30kt behind a cold front pushing southeastward across south central Kansas early this morning. Winds will become northeasterly while subsiding to around 10 to 20kt Thursday afternoon as surface high pressure drifts southeast across the Northern Plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 58 78 55 83 / 90 10 0 0 GCK 57 77 55 85 / 60 10 0 10 EHA 58 78 58 88 / 40 10 0 10 LBL 58 79 57 87 / 60 10 0 0 HYS 58 77 53 83 / 90 10 0 0 P28 64 80 57 84 / 90 40 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046- 063>066-077>081. FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-066- 079>081. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJohnson SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1131 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 .AVIATION... DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/06Z TAF FORECAST...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER THROUGH 12/13Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS. AFTER 13Z... SCATTERED TSTMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING FLIGHT HAZARDS INCLUDING SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS...SEVERE TURBULENCE AND MARGINAL CIGS AND VSBYS. THE STORMS MAY DISSIPATE OR BECOME ISOLATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BRINGING FLIGHT HAZARDS TO MOST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH 06Z. /14/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014/ DISCUSSION... OVERALL...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTION W OF I-35 CORRIDOR IN TX AND WHETHER IT OR AFFECT THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z NAM DID NOT REALLY INITIALIZE WELL WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST GFS IS SOMEWHAT BETTER. 00Z RUN OF THE HRRR DEPICTS THESE STORMS MAKING A SERN TURN AND NOT AFFECTING THE CWA...WHILE AN MCS ORGANIZES ACROSS SW KS/NW OK AND MOVES SEWD TO JUST NW OF THE AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE HRRR. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR FAR NW ZONES DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE OTHER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS BUT MIN TEMP FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014/ DISCUSSION... NW FLOW ALOFT HAS BROUGHT MILD JUNE TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS A BIT DECEPTIVE. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RIDE EWD AROUND THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND DOWN ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS OUR WAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NEWD. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE ON THE HORIZON AFTER FRIDAY. TEMP-WISE...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUE TO STAY RIGHT ON-PAR WITH SEASONAL NORMALS. RAINFALL/WET SOILS HAVE LIMITED TEMPS FROM RATCHETING UP ABOVE NORMAL...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 91 72 88 70 / 10 20 60 40 10 MLU 66 90 71 87 68 / 10 20 60 50 20 DEQ 63 86 65 85 65 / 10 60 60 20 10 TXK 67 88 69 85 67 / 10 30 60 30 10 ELD 64 89 68 85 65 / 10 20 60 40 10 TYR 70 90 71 87 71 / 20 30 60 20 10 GGG 68 90 71 88 70 / 10 30 60 30 10 LFK 71 92 73 91 72 / 10 20 50 40 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
444 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 ...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING... ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE FCST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY DIED OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE DRY. WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS. TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE. THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W. THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT. INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH. POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED. GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI- CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES. THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD. PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS. PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 PER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY CONTAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE (IF NOT HIGHER CHANCES) OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE TWO MAIN POINTS THAT NEED TO BE MADE RIGHT OFF THE TOP: FIRST OF ALL...BY FAR AND AWAY THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. ALONG THESE LINES...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA TO PART OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS DAY 3 OUTLOOK TECHNICALLY ONLY HIGHLIGHTS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...THIS FORECASTER IS OF THE OPINION THAT ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD CONSIDER ITSELF TO BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SLIGHT RISK EXPANDED IN AREA AS IT GETS INTO THE DAY 2 AND EVENTUALLY DAY 1 TIME FRAME. THE SECOND MAIN POINT TO EMPHASIZE FOR THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ESPECIALLY BY THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND THE PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS DURING THESE FINAL 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE. GIVEN THIS INHERENT UNCERTAINTY...MOST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME PERIODS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20S-30S...AND ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MODESTLY HIGHER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...HAVE TRIMMED OUT THE MENTION OF 50 POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURE WISE...MADE FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S ON MOST DAYS. HOWEVER...PROBABLY THE MOST CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS SATURDAY...WHICH ALSO HAS A CHANCE AT BEING THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST NUDGED UP HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES...GETTING MORE OF THE CWA INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S SOUTHWEST...THERE COULD EASILY BE ROOM FOR FUTURE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS...AS SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE CWA COULD FLIRT WITH LOW-90S...WITH SOUTHWEST AREAS POTENTIALLY EVEN UPPER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MOST NIGHTS ARE AIMED IN THE SEASONABLY-TYPICAL UPPER 50S-MID 60S RANGE...SO NOT FORESEEING ANY BIG SURPRISES HERE. AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED POTENTIAL HAZARDS...ITS BEEN AWHILE SINCE FORECAST SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE REALLY COME CLOSE TO SOLIDLY APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH. AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT ADVERTISE ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS...ITS AT LEAST LOOKING LIKE MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA COULD APPROACH IT ON SATURDAY. ON BOTH DAYS...THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GETTING INTO A BIT MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR BLOCKS... FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AND IN RESPONSE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 20 MPH IN EASTERN ZONES AND MORE SO 25-30 MPH IN THE WEST (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT...QUESTIONS ABOUT SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL ARISE...AS SOME MODELS ARE BONE DRY WHILE OTHERS GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE AXIS OF A VERY STRONG 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENT BY 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY...OPTED TO STAY THE COURSE AND LEAVE THE EVENING PERIOD VOID OF POPS...WHILE BLANKETING MOST OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...A ROGUE STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND ITS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE ROBUST EVENING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CWA TRIES TO SURVIVE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED OFF THE TOP THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD LIKELY COMMANDS THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST ATTENTION FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. COMPARED TO THE SEVERE EVENT THAT JUST OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY SETUP LOOKS TO BE MORE POTENT WITH A GREATER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS ARE LIKELY OVER-DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE DEPARTING FRI NIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CAPPED AS THE POTENT MID/UPPER WAVE SLIDES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AM EXPECTING RATHER VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY LIKELY TIED TO A FAIRLY NARROW ZONE ALONG THE INVADING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY RIPE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A WIND THREAT POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A NOTABLE TORNADO THREAT...CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THIS POSSIBILITY EITHER ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE THE LONGEST. HYDRO- WISE...COULD EASILY SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA RECEIVING A QUICK 1- 2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...BUT FORTUNATELY A GENERALLY DRY 48 HOURS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE ANY MORE THAN LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE MOST PART. POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ARE STILL IN THE LIKELY 60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN SOME AREAS. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IN REALITY THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY DRY/STORM-FREE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT POP IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING JUST IN CASE A LITTLE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY STILL LINGERS...AND HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE PRIMARY MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS START TO INCREASINGLY DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF GENERALLY KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOCAL FLOW MORE QUASI-ZONAL WITH VARIOUS PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY IS FAR TOO HIGH TO EVEN PINPOINT A TIME FRAME WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE. POPS ARE LARGELY A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AND FOR NOW THE HIGHEST 40 POPS ARE FOCUSED ON MONDAY DAYTIME BUT ITS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT WAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND EVEN SURFACE PATTERNS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS GET INCREDIBLY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A VERY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES...WHILE THE GFS IS COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS ARE GENERALLY AGREEING ON DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH LOW-END 20- 30 POPS UNTIL THINGS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC AROUND 20K FT. N-NNW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BUT THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AS HIGH AS 25 KTS. IT SHOULD BE BRIEF SO IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THU: VFR. CLEARING. N WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH A LITTLE GUSTINESS POSSIBLE 13Z-16Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THU EVE: VFR SKC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 RECENT RAINFALL: AS ANTICIPATED LAST EVENINGS STORMS DEVELOPED PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF BENEFICIAL RAIN WAS NARROW AND STRETCHED ACROSS ROOKS-OSBORNE- JEWELL COUNTIES. LOOKING AT ESTIMATED RAINFALL FOR THE PAST 4 WEEKS...THE AREA FROM THE TRI-CITIES SE TO HEBRON AND NE TO COLUMBUS HAS SEEN A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES. THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/ HAS SEEN A 2-6 INCH SURPLUS OR 125-200% OF NORMAL. UPSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2 WKS HAS BEEN 200-600% OF NORMAL. THAT HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE PLATTE RVR SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. THE FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR WRN DAWSON COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING AROUND GOTHENBURG. FCSTS INDICATE THAT BOTH THE N AND S BRANCHES AT COZAD WILL APPROACH OR WERE ALREADY NEAR ACTION STAGE. KEARNEY IS FCST TO CREST JUST SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND AND WE ISSUED AN ESF /HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ AT 1109 PM LAST EVENING FOR THIS. GRAND ISLAND IS FCST TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE PLATTE RVR SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS VIA THE RIVER&LAKES LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF OUR WEBPAGE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH AVIATION...HALBLAUB HYDROLOGY...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 ...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING... ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE FCST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY DIES OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE DRY. WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS. TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE. THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W. THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT. INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH. POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED. GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI- CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES. THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD. PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS. PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE BY 430 AM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC AROUND 20K FT. N-NNW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BUT THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AS HIGH AS 25 KTS. IT SHOULD BE BRIEF SO IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THU: VFR. CLEARING. N WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH A LITTLE GUSTINESS POSSIBLE 13Z-16Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THU EVE: VFR SKC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 RECENT RAINFALL: AS ANTICIPATED LAST EVENINGS STORMS DEVELOPED PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF BENEFICIAL RAIN WAS NARROW AND STRETCHED ACROSS ROOKS-OSBORNE- JEWELL COUNTIES. LOOKING AT ESTIMATED RAINFALL FOR THE PAST 4 WEEKS...THE AREA FROM THE TRI-CITIES SE TO HEBRON AND NE TO COLUMBUS HAS SEEN A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES. THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/ HAS SEEN A 2-6 INCH SURPLUS OR 125-200% OF NORMAL. UPSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2 WKS HAS BEEN 200-600% OF NORMAL. THAT HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE PLATTE RVR SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. THE FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR WRN DAWSON COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING AROUND GOTHENBURG. FCSTS INDICATE THAT BOTH THE N AND S BRANCHES AT COZAD WILL APPROACH OR WERE ALREADY NEAR ACTION STAGE. KEARNEY IS FCST TO CREST JUST SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND AND WE ISSUED AT ESF /HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ AT 1109 PM LAST EVENING FOR THIS. GRAND ISLAND IS FCST TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE PLATTE RVR SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS VIA THE RIVER&LAKES LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF OUR WEBPAGE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH AVIATION...HALBLAUB HYDROLOGY...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1227 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 WW 285 WAS CANCELLED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO. ONE LAST BAND OF TSTMS HAS FORMED AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM YORK-FRANKLIN. MOVEMENT WAS SE 20-25 MPH. LOTS OF ANVIL DEBRIS REMAINS OVER N-CNTRL KS. THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM GENEVA NEB-PLAINVILLE KS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY 2 AM. MADE SOME SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO LINGER RAIN A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A ~110KT JET STREAK NEAR MAINE AND A ~55KT JET STREAK OVER WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT / STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND A WEAK DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TONIGHT...WITH THIS SURFACE LOW THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE WARM FRONT / STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MUCH OF OUR CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA POST-FROPA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT LIFT ALONG THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEAR AS THROUGH THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WHAT LITTLE CIN WILL BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 1KM WRF-NMM...1KM WRF-ARW AND HRRR ALL SUGGEST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR CWA AROUND 00Z...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 23Z. THESE DATA DO NOT SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD ...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT IT CERTAINLY APPEARS HIT AND MISS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION COULD INCREASE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATION DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD ~20% POPS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTING AT 23Z THIS EVENING...WITH POPS THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 70% ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CWA 00-06Z. POPS ARE THEN TAPERED OFF TO NEAR ZERO HEADING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS NEAR 60...ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AS THE SHORT WAVE BRUSHES OUR AREA TO THE NORTH...SHOULD PROMOTE RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO NEAR 3000J/KG WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ~25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THE UPDRAFTS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT...A TRULY COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL NOT LIKELY INFILTRATE OUR AREA UNTIL THE DAY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS SHOULD BE REALIZED TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. THE INFILTRATION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL THEN PROMOTE COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S CURRENTLY FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH IT REMAINING DRY DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN UPPER LEVELS OVER THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY...THESE FEATURES SLIDE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...ENDING UP TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN ON THURSDAY NIGHT ...WITH CONTINUED LIGHTER NE/E WINDS...BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT A REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH NEAR 80 IN THE EAST TO MID 80S IN THE WEST. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PAC NW HAVING SHIFTED EAST IN CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH AN 50-ISH+ KT LLJ IN PLACE. SOME MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT /THE EC IS DRY/...SHOWING THE AREA CAPPED WITH BETTER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ZONES OF THE LLJ. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION GOING AFTER 06Z. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIES WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE APPROACHING FROM THE NW/W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/PERHAPS EARLY EVENING...DEPENDING ON CAPPING...BEFORE CONTINUING ITS TREK E/SE THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MODELS SHOWING A GOOD COMBO OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN COMING MODEL RUNS. THINKING THAT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY WOULD MOVE EAST OUT OF THE BY BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...LEAVING THE REST OF THE DAY DRY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS ON SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NEAR 80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/LOCATION THIS FAR OUT...SO KEPT POPS LOW...HARD TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE. HIGHS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC AROUND 20K FT. N-NNW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BUT THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AS HIGH AS 25 KTS. IT SHOULD BE BRIEF SO IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THU: VFR. CLEARING. N WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH A LITTLE GUSTINESS POSSIBLE 13Z-16Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THU EVE: VFR SKC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...BRYANT LONG TERM...ADO AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1149 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 WW 285 WAS CANCELLED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO. ONE LAST BAND OF TSTMS HAS FORMED AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM YORK-FRANKLIN. MOVEMENT WAS SE 20-25 MPH. LOTS OF ANVIL DEBRIS REMAINS OVER N-CNTRL KS. THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM GENEVA NEB-PLAINVILLE KS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY 2 AM. MADE SOME SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO LINGER RAIN A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A ~110KT JET STREAK NEAR MAINE AND A ~55KT JET STREAK OVER WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT / STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND A WEAK DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TONIGHT...WITH THIS SURFACE LOW THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE WARM FRONT / STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MUCH OF OUR CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA POST-FROPA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT LIFT ALONG THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEAR AS THROUGH THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WHAT LITTLE CIN WILL BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 1KM WRF-NMM...1KM WRF-ARW AND HRRR ALL SUGGEST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR CWA AROUND 00Z...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 23Z. THESE DATA DO NOT SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD ...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT IT CERTAINLY APPEARS HIT AND MISS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION COULD INCREASE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATION DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD ~20% POPS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTING AT 23Z THIS EVENING...WITH POPS THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 70% ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CWA 00-06Z. POPS ARE THEN TAPERED OFF TO NEAR ZERO HEADING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS NEAR 60...ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AS THE SHORT WAVE BRUSHES OUR AREA TO THE NORTH...SHOULD PROMOTE RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO NEAR 3000J/KG WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ~25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THE UPDRAFTS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT...A TRULY COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL NOT LIKELY INFILTRATE OUR AREA UNTIL THE DAY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS SHOULD BE REALIZED TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. THE INFILTRATION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL THEN PROMOTE COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S CURRENTLY FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH IT REMAINING DRY DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN UPPER LEVELS OVER THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY...THESE FEATURES SLIDE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...ENDING UP TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN ON THURSDAY NIGHT ...WITH CONTINUED LIGHTER NE/E WINDS...BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT A REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH NEAR 80 IN THE EAST TO MID 80S IN THE WEST. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PAC NW HAVING SHIFTED EAST IN CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH AN 50-ISH+ KT LLJ IN PLACE. SOME MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT /THE EC IS DRY/...SHOWING THE AREA CAPPED WITH BETTER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ZONES OF THE LLJ. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION GOING AFTER 06Z. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIES WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE APPROACHING FROM THE NW/W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/PERHAPS EARLY EVENING...DEPENDING ON CAPPING...BEFORE CONTINUING ITS TREK E/SE THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MODELS SHOWING A GOOD COMBO OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN COMING MODEL RUNS. THINKING THAT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY WOULD MOVE EAST OUT OF THE BY BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...LEAVING THE REST OF THE DAY DRY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS ON SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NEAR 80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/LOCATION THIS FAR OUT...SO KEPT POPS LOW...HARD TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE. HIGHS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR KGRI. AT 645 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF SAINT PAUL TO NEAR WOOD RIVER...AND OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THE FIRST ECHO ON RADAR IS DUE NORTH OF KGRI...JUST NORTH OF ST LIBORY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL CERTAINLY BE IN THE KGRI VICINITY THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...AT WHICH POINT THEY SHOULD ALL HAVE PASSED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 10 PM AT KGRI. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY 01Z TO 02Z. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID. PERIOD. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...BRYANT LONG TERM...ADO AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1125 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 18Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WITH AVAILABLE REMOTE SENSING DATA REVEALS THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS REGION...AT THE NORTHERN DOOR OF KLBF. 19Z HAND ANALYSIS INDICATED A TONGUE OF 60+ TD/S ARCING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WHEELER AND GARFIELD COUNTIES...WITH OTHER 60+ TD/S NOTED POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG AND WITHIN THE PLATTE RIVER BASINS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 19Z RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN KVTN...TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. AVAILABLE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FETCH OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH THE CAP BEING BREACHED AFTER 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TREND OF THE NEAR TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAS BEEN TO THE EAST...WITH THE LATEST /15-16Z/ RUN OF THE HRRR NOW INDICATING THE ONLY CONVECTION FIRING IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF WHEELER COUNTY. THE LATEST RAP13 SHOWS A SIMILAR TREND...BUT SLIGHTLY MORE AMBITIOUS WITH FIRING CONVECTION BY 21Z. WILL FOLLOW THE EASTWARD TREND OF THE NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS AND CUT BACK POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND EAST CONSIDERABLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO A EASTWARD ADVANCING SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE. THE AVAILABLE NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE EVENTUAL MERGER OF STORMS INTO A EASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT MAY BRUSH OUR FAR SOUTHWEST...BUT THE TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH...SO WITH THAT STORM CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ARE FADING AS WELL. IF THE CAP IS BREACHED AND STORMS FIRE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...STEEP LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY TSTM WIND. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIGHT WIND AND CLEARING CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S IS FORECAST...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH CARVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR US STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET CONVECTION WISE. THAT WILL CHANGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET QUICKLY TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO REGION. SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...BUT THE NOSE OF THE JET AND BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME THUNDER THOUGH...SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THIS POINT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL COME SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD ROUGHLY EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR EWING TO COMSTOCK TO CURTIS BY VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS CAP WEAKENS...AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME HEALTHY SB CAPES /NEARING 5000 J/KG/ AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT CREATING GOOD SHEAR...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 45 KTS. MODELS THEN AGREE THAT AN MCS SHOULD EVOLVE...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING. WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...AS STILL DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED CAPE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH STILL REMAINING TO OUR NORTHWEST. FRONT WASHES OUT MONDAY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWEST BACK INTO THE AREA. MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF SUPPORTING A POTENT SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING OUR AREA. GFS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SO WILL KEEP POPS 30 PERCENT OR BELOW AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SATELLITE INDICATES LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH NCNTL NEB EAST OF KVTN-KTIF OVERNIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY OVERNIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL. OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FROM 15Z THURSDAY ONWARD. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE NORTH PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER BASINS. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND AND RAPID ROCKY MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING....BUT THEN DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JACOBS LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...CDC HYDROLOGY...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
502 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TODAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S. HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S WARMER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS AT SLK IN HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 12Z...BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO 3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
431 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 127 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM PENNSYLVANIA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 341 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. WITH DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...WE CAN EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES THURSDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY...SO CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST. BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING CONCERNS. DUE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING...THREAT OF THUNDER RATHER LOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED FOR SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RATHER HIGH POPS PREFERRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 INCH TO AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. RATHER MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S. HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S WARMER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS AT SLK IN HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 12Z...BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH EXISTS BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS HELPING TO PRODUCE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT THESE SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE PRIMARILY IMPACTING OPEN AREAS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 127 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM PENNSYLVANIA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 341 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. WITH DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...WE CAN EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES THURSDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY...SO CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST. BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING CONCERNS. DUE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING...THREAT OF THUNDER RATHER LOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED FOR SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RATHER HIGH POPS PREFERRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 INCH TO AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. RATHER MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND PASS WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION AT THIS TIME. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL BUT TREND ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS AT SLK IN HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 12Z...BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH EXISTS BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS HELPING TO PRODUCE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT THESE SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE PRIMARILY IMPACTING OPEN AREAS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...NEILES/TABER AVIATION...TABER MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
409 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING MCS IN OKLAHOMA. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THE SETUP FOR TODAY IS AS FOLLOWS. SHORTWAVE #1 IN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE FROM THE CURRENT MCS AND SHORTWAVE #1. IN GENERAL... HIGH RES MODELS SHOW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED LINE AND PUSHING TO THE EAST. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN THE SHEAR AXIS ANALYZED ON THE CURRENT 0Z 850 MAP THIS MORNING WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO RUN NORTH SOUTH FROM OUR AREA TOWARDS TYLER TEXAS. HIGH MODELS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE PAST THIS TIME FRAME. THE 4KM NCEP WRF INTENSIFIES THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP AND MOVES IT INTO OUR AREA. THE TEXAS TECH WRF... HRRR ...AND RAP WEAKEN THE PRECIP. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE PRECIP WEAKENING DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS ~1.5"). UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO APPEARS TO BE WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO WIN OUT. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY PRECIP THAT MIGHT CUT ACROSS. IT COULD ALSO BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS AN 850 BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND FOUR DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH CIRRUS THE AREA WILL SEE THOUGH FROM CONVECTION OFF TO OUR NORTH. IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT IF A COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH. MID 90S LOOKS VERY LIKELY FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS THOUGH. ALONG THE COAST THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPS MORE TAME. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SHORTWAVE #2 CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ARIZONA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AS IT MOVES EAST AND ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE. THURSDAY EVENING IT IS FORECASTED TO BE ENTERING CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SOME TYPE OF MCS FORMING AND HEADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. BEFORE THIS THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS VARY GREATLY AND THEREFORE PRODUCE VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS ON HOW THE LINE IS HANDLED. AS OF CURRENT THE HRRR/ RAP HAVE SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE BEST AND SHOW THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 0Z FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A SECTION OF THE RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW A WEDGE OF PV TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFLUENCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT THE SIGNAL IS WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 1.8" WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. BECAUSE OF THIS SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY THREATS APPEAR TO BE WIND AND HAIL. FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO DROP SLIGHTLY BUT GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW LARGE INSTABILITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. DUE TO THIS SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL FALL INTO THE CONVERGENT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE AREA WILL START TO DRY OUT. SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. 23 && .MARINE... WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS DEEPENS. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 73 90 74 91 / 20 50 30 20 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 95 75 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 20 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 88 80 87 79 87 / 10 30 30 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 MAIN OVERNIGHT FOCUS IS ON THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. TIMING HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR WITH BRINGING THIS BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT THEN SHOULD GET INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD 3-5AM AND OUT OF WESTERN WISCONSIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. 0-3KM MUCAPE CONTINUES TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON DOWN TO AROUND 300-500 J/KG. SO THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCALLY PRETTY LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 25-35MPH AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THOUGH AND THE WINDS COME TO AN END. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 AT 3 PM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HUDSON BAY. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR...AND THEN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS... MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC AND DEEPEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE MUCH OF THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL GO TO SATURATING THE VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE HIGHEST CHANCES /55 TO 65 PERCENT/ OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS INTERSTATE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES RANGING FROM 24 TO 54 PERCENT. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES...FALLING FROM 14C AT 12.12Z...TO 6 TO 8C BY 12.18Z...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 FOR THE WEEKEND...THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER AT THIS DEVELOPMENT AND MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY ON SATURDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF. WITH THIS MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE 2 CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST WILL OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THEN FOLLOW CORFIDI VECTORS SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI. MEANWHILE THE SECOND COMPLEX DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS COMPLEX WILL ALSO FOLLOW CORFIDI VECTORS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION...BUT THE CAPE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS MOVES THIS FRONT NORTH TO THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE ECMWF KEEPS THIS FRONT CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 80. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...OPTED TO STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS BAND WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 2-3 HOURS WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY STAYING AT VFR AS THE RAIN COMES THROUGH...IF IT HITS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY INTO THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE. A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBACH SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
835 AM MST THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. A BETTER CHANCE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOME DRYING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE CREEP INTO MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER FELL BACK TO AROUND .8 OR SO ON THE MORNING SOUNDING WITH DEWPTS HOLDING ON TO 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO SLOSH BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING JUST ENOUGH FUEL WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING TO GET A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GOING. LATEST HRRR NOW JOINED BY OTHER SHORT RANGE RESOLUTIONS FOCUSING ON AN AREA GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE RINCON MOUNTAINS (EAST OF TUCSON) AFTER 21-22Z. NOTHING MAJOR AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND...BUT WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS. THAT WEAK ELEVATED ACTIVITY ACROSS GRAHAM COUNTY YESTERDAY GENERATED A GUST TO 43MPH AT SAFFORD AIRPORT. WE MADE FIRST AND EARLY SECOND PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS IN MIND. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS BETTER WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGH INFLUENCE. THE ONLY THING TO KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING IS IF THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION...DIRTY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. PW VALUES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 0.70"-0.85"...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE. SHOULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF. EUROPEAN MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER MODEL AND HAVE LEANED THAT WAY...THUS HAVEN`T MADE TOO MAY CHANGES TO WHAT DAYSHIFT LAID OUT YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT STAYING CLOSE BY TO OUR SOUTH...AS A STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOISTURE REMAINING CLOSE BY..THUS COULD SEE A FEW STORMS APPROACH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF COCHISE COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS HAS LEANED MORE TOWARD EUROPEAN SOLUTION ON TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTINA AND THUS IS NOT AS WET ACROSS THE AREA AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. SO BASED ON THIS I MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE POP FIELDS FOR NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER SONORA SHOULD BE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AND WE`LL LIKELY SEE INFLUXES OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A HISTORICAL NOTE ON CRISTINA. PER THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER...CRISTINA IS THE EARLIEST SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE FORMATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1971. && .AVIATION...ENOUGH MOISTURE TODAY FOR A FEW -TSRA MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL THRU 13/15Z. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA DEVELOPING AFT 12/19Z...MAINLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF KTUS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFT 13/02Z. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL SURFACE WINDS MORNING AND EVENING...GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WLY/NWLY AT 10-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS. A BETTER CHANCE OF -TSRA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE...WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT PUSHES THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOME BREEZINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. SOME MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER NEXT WEEK. && .CLIMATE...TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE 14TH STRAIGHT DAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN TUCSON. THIS WOULD BE THE 75TH SUCH OCCURRENCE (OF 14 CONSECUTIVE 100 DAYS) IN THE TUCSON CLIMATIC HISTORY...WHICH DATES BACK TO 1894. HERE IS AN ODD ONE. IN THE 1981-2010 DAILY NORMALS FOR TUCSON...THE COLDEST NORMAL JUNE HIGH FOR TUCSON IS 97 DEGREES WHICH FALLS ON THE 1ST AND 2ND. WELL TODAY WILL BE THE 100TH STRAIGHT JUNE DAY THAT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN 97 DEGREES OR WARMER. THE LAST JUNE DATE THAT HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW 97 DEGREES WAS ON JUNE 2 2011 WHEN THE HIGH WAS 96. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON MEYER/LADER/GLUECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
955 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 LATEST RUC AND HRRR RUNS APPEAR TO KEEP ANY DEVELOPING STORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH OF DENVER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. WL GO WITH ISOLD TSTMS FOR THE DENVER AREA WITH HIGHER COVERAGE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. GOOD SELY WINDS AT KDEN SO SHOULD SEE DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP. BEST CHC OF ISOLD STG/SVR STORMS WL BE WITH THIS BOUNDARY...AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER. PLENTY OF BKN-OVC CEILINGS THIS MORNING WHICH WL LIKELY INHIBIT HEATING IF IT CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN AND LESSEN THEN STRENGTH OF ANY DEVELOPING STORMS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 LATEST WIND PROFILER SHOWS ABOUT 4000 FEET OF UPSLOPE...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A STRATUS DECK AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TIL AROUND MID MORNING. THEN LOSS OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY ELIMINATE ANY SHOWERS AND DAYTIME HEATING GRADUALLY BURNING/ LIFTING THE STRATUS DECK. UNTIL THEN...ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG IN THE FOOTHILLS WHERE CLOUD DECK INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN. WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION...THE AIRMASS IS QUITE STABLE ON THE PLAINS BUT MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM ENOUGH TO BREAK CAP...ESPECIALLY ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN BETTER MOISTURE AND HEATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY. ON THE PLAINS...WE DO EXPECT A DENVER CYCLONE TO DEVELOP WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN/NEAR THE DENVER METRO AREA. IF TEMPS REACH THE 74-76 DEGREE RANGE...THEN WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIR CHANCE OF BREAKING THE CAP MAINLY WITH THE BENEFIT OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. CAPES WITH T/TD OF 76F/47F ARE NEAR 1200-1500 J/KG AND ENOUGH SHEAR TO BRING POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. LCLS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND LOW LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG THE DENVER CYCLONE COULD ALSO LEAD TO A COUPLE LANDSPOUT TORNADOES...BUT...ONLY IF WE BREAK THE CAP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ADVERTISED TO REACH THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS EVENING SO CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING THERE TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE SOME STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 EXPECT MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE STATE PUSHES EAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DRY LINE IS PROGGED TO SET UP ALONG A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING DRY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THE DRIER AIR TO THE WEST COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH PARK...HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL GREEN AT THIS POINT. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE OFF THE DRY LINE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH LESS OF A WARM UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY WINDS KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MODERATED ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE STATE SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WETTER DAY. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE PLAINS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I70. MODELS UNFORTUNATELY ALREADY START DISAGREEING SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NAM BEING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO...HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WITH THIS...DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. PAST THIS...MODEL SPREAD GROWS BIGGER WITH THE ECMWF DRASTICALLY CHANGING FROM ITS LAST RUN AND NOW KEEPS UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK....TRENDING TOWARD THE GEM MODEL SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE GFS KEEPS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...SHOVING THE TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE. KEPT THE PREVIOUS LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 SELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KDEN THIS MORNING WITH A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN...BUT STILL SOME ILS RESTRICTIONS WITH CIGS AROUND 5K FT WITH ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS. WL GO WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS THIS AFTN VS TEMPO GROUP. THE BEST CHC OF STORMS WL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KDEN AND KAPA WHERE THIS POTENTIAL LINE OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES. STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KTS TO THE EAST WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS AND RUNOFF...WITH ONLY POTENTIAL TROUBLE IF A HIGHER INTENSITY STORM OCCURS OVER A BURN SCAR. STREAMFLOWS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO SNOWMELT BUT BULK OF SNOWMELT HAS PASSED SO NO ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...COOPER SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN AVIATION...COOPER HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND STRATUS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALONG/NORTH OF THE RATON RIDGE. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES IN ALOFT THOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SUBTLE FEATURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BACK ACROSS WESTERN NV THAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES THROUGH THE RIDGE ACROSS CO DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FORCING LOOKS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOWS UP BEST IN THE PRESSURE FIELD ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL VORTICITY SURFACE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PINNED UP IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS SUCH AS THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN DEW POINTS TODAY. CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH THIS MOISTURE MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE AFFECT THIS HAS ON CAPE VALUES. NAM12 KEEPS SFC DEWS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS IN THE 40S WITH POCKETS OF MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME PLACES. GFS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...WHILE SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS LIKE RAP13 AND HRRR DROP DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. NAM12 CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT CERTAINLY THINK THAT UP TO 1000 J/KG IS DOABLE AS RAP SUGGESTS. 0-6 KM SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS...WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THE INSTABILITY BE REALIZED. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS THEY DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WHERE A HEALTHY CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS WITH ANY STORMS TODAY IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS TODAY. OF COURSE WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS IMPACT THE BURN SCARS. THREAT TODAY LOOKS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE OF STORMS IN HIGH RES MODELS...THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER OUT WEST. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. -KT .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION STARTING FRIDAY...WITH WARM AND DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO WESTERN CO. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO SOUTHERN CO THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE. THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE ADVANCING DRY AIR...SO IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME CONVECTION FRI AFTN AND EVE WILL BE ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE. SAT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO E CO LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES OFF THE MAX TEMP FOR THE PLAINS ON SUN...AS WELL AS BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION BACK TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 F FOR THE PLAINS AND AROUND 80 F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS BOTH FRI AND SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE EAST ON SUN. ONE THING TO NOTE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SAT...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP SO A FIREWX HIGHLIGHT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW FORECAST FOR THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH JUST ISOLATED MT CONVECTION EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE...WHICH SHOULD FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN INTO E CO FOR WED. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 F ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PLAINS BOTH MON AND TUE...THEN DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR WED. MOORE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 MVFR TO VFR STRATUS WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH MID MORNING. POCKETS OF IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. STRATUS WILL BURN OF BY LATE MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...ALONG WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. AS STORMS DRIFT OFF INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO COOLER MORE STABLE AIR. THUS...KCOS AND KPUB COULD COULD SEE A DWINDLING SHOWER IF ONE SHOULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS. KCOS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED AND WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR THAT SITE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TODAY AS WELL...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM THREATS TO BRIEF RAINFALL AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
940 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .UPDATE... THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD THAT LED TO THE ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DIMINISHED WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE REMAINING THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD TODAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE CANOPY OF CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS NOTED AROUND GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES. IF THIS CLOUD COVERAGE MANAGES TO BURN OFF OR BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...A COMBINATION OF THE PULSES OF ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT MIAMI SHOWED A VERY MOIST COLUMN WITH A PW OF 1.74" AND DECENT LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850 AND 600MB. THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE WAS AT 9.6 C DEGREES...WHICH WAS COLDER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS. CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE REALIZED IF THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IF THE CLOUD COVERAGE MANAGES TO STAY IN PLACE...THE CHANCES OF AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WILL BE LOWER. THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY REFLECTS THIS LATTER SOLUTION OR MORE OF A QUIET AFTERNOON PERIOD DUE TO THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS. CONSIDERING THESE VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES...VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THIS PERIOD TODAY. 85/AG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/ AVIATION... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. MOSTLY STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS CURRENTLY SEEN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. PLACED TEMPOS AT KMIA AND KTMB THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH VCSH PREVAILING. MAIN CONCERN ARE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN REMAIN PREDOMINANT...CONVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHED. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AROUND MIDDAY SO KEPT VCTS IN AT ALL SITES AFTER 17Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/ DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FRONT ARE MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS WELL. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND FRONT ARE WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING BOTH WATER VAPOR AND IR. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TOMORROW, CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW. THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE 500MB TEMPS TO BE AROUND -10C TODAY, WHICH IS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING IS SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE 500MB, WITH SOME DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO HIGHER DOWNBURST POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN, ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER, SHOWING AT AROUND 12800 FT, INSTEAD OF 14K. THE NCAPE WILL BE ABOVE 1 THIS AFTERNOON, INDICATING STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAN YESTERDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOWER FREEZING LEVEL MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL IN LOCALIZED AREAS TODAY. SO STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE AND A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THEM TO BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS OF HAIL AND GUSTY WIND. STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN, BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING A LITTLE BIT FASTER TODAY. TOMORROW WILL SEE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH MANY OF THE PARAMETERS LOOKING SIMILAR TO TODAY. BY THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THERE LOOKS TO BE A REMNANT OF THE TROUGH SITTING AS A WEAK ENCLOSED LOW OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE AT 500MB REMAINS AROUND -10C THROUGH SATURDAY, WHEN IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WARM. THIS MAY HELP TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH ANY SEA BREEZES THAT DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY CAUSE CONVECTION TO OCCUR. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY, WHICH WILL PUSH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR WESTWARD, TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THUS, HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS IN THAT DIRECTION. AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CONVECTION MAY SLOW DOWN SOME. WHILE MODELS ARE COMING IN MAINLY DRY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY, HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. MARINE... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN STALL THROUGH TOMORROW, BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MAINLAND, WHICH MAY MOVE OVER COASTAL WATERS. BY THE WEEKEND, THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 3 FEET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 87 70 89 72 / 60 20 50 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 88 72 89 74 / 60 20 50 20 MIAMI 88 71 90 74 / 60 20 50 20 NAPLES 88 72 88 74 / 60 20 50 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...10/CD LONG TERM....85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
810 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .AVIATION... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. MOSTLY STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS CURRENTLY SEEN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. PLACED TEMPOS AT KMIA AND KTMB THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH VCSH PREVAILING. MAIN CONCERN ARE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN REMAIN PREDOMINANT...CONVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHED. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AROUND MIDDAY SO KEPT VCTS IN AT ALL SITES AFTER 17Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/ DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FRONT ARE MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS WELL. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND FRONT ARE WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING BOTH WATER VAPOR AND IR. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TOMORROW, CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW. THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE 500MB TEMPS TO BE AROUND -10C TODAY, WHICH IS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING IS SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE 500MB, WITH SOME DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO HIGHER DOWNBURST POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN, ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER, SHOWING AT AROUND 12800 FT, INSTEAD OF 14K. THE NCAPE WILL BE ABOVE 1 THIS AFTERNOON, INDICATING STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAN YESTERDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOWER FREEZING LEVEL MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL IN LOCALIZED AREAS TODAY. SO STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE AND A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THEM TO BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS OF HAIL AND GUSTY WIND. STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN, BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING A LITTLE BIT FASTER TODAY. TOMORROW WILL SEE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH MANY OF THE PARAMETERS LOOKING SIMILAR TO TODAY. BY THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THERE LOOKS TO BE A REMNANT OF THE TROUGH SITTING AS A WEAK ENCLOSED LOW OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE AT 500MB REMAINS AROUND -10C THROUGH SATURDAY, WHEN IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WARM. THIS MAY HELP TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH ANY SEA BREEZES THAT DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY CAUSE CONVECTION TO OCCUR. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY, WHICH WILL PUSH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR WESTWARD, TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THUS, HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS IN THAT DIRECTION. AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CONVECTION MAY SLOW DOWN SOME. WHILE MODELS ARE COMING IN MAINLY DRY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY, HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. MARINE... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN STALL THROUGH TOMORROW, BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MAINLAND, WHICH MAY MOVE OVER COASTAL WATERS. BY THE WEEKEND, THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 3 FEET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 87 70 89 72 / 70 20 50 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 88 72 89 74 / 70 20 50 20 MIAMI 88 71 90 74 / 70 20 50 20 NAPLES 88 72 88 74 / 60 20 50 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1049 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .DISCUSSION... CONVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS NE TX THIS MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DEFINITELY MADE A COME BACK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...THE AIR HAS THAT SWALLOW YOU FEEL TO IT WHEN YOU WALK OUTSIDE. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS EVERYTHING COVERED QUITE WELL...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE THIS MORNING BEING THE INCLUSION OF SMALL POPS ACROSS THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND HRRR GUIDANCE...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THIS INITIAL ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO REACH THAT FAR SOUTH AND/OR SEE NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERATED ALONG SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOWS. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ DISCUSSION... CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E GULF...KEEPING A FAIRLY LIGHT S FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS INLAND ARE MAINLY CALM OR VERY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS NEAR 70S TO THE LOWER 70S PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SE ACROSS KS/N OK THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING A LARGE MCS OVER C OK. THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SSE TODAY AND ACROSS NE TX/N LA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS SHOW REGENERATION/CONTINUATION OF THIS COMPLEX AS IT CONTINUES SSE THIS EVENING. WITH AMPLE INFLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT...ITS EXPECTED TO KEEP ITS INTENSITY THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA. FOR THIS...SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THRU 12Z FRI. KEPT THE INCREASING POP TREND BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF SE TX/W LA...WITH THE HIGHER POPS SPREADING SSE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE TX/C AND S LA BETWEEN 06-18Z FRI. FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ONLY ISO SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE DIMINISHES A BIT...AND WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON HEATING. FOR MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM TX...FURTHER LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE A BIT...WITH MID/UPPER 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS. MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 90 76 87 74 / 10 40 50 30 KBPT 90 76 87 74 / 10 40 50 20 KAEX 92 72 87 70 / 20 50 50 20 KLFT 91 75 87 73 / 10 30 50 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JAN 12 2014 CLEARING IS IN PROGRESS...BUT AS THE WRF GOES-R SIMULATED FOG PRODUCT SUGGESTED...MVFR STRATUS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS N-CNTRL NEB AND WAS DROPPING S INTO THE FCST AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE THIS MORNING /15Z-16Z/. AFTER VIEWING THE WRF GOES-R SIMULATED IR IMAGERY... THE SKY FCST WAS LEFT AS IS FROM 400 AM. W OF HWY 281 WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF 10K FT ALTOCU AND PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS. M/SUNNY SHOULD DO JUST FINE. .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 ...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING... ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE FCST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY DIED OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE DRY. WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS. TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE. THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W. THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT. INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH. POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED. GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI- CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES. THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD. PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS. PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 PER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY CONTAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE (IF NOT HIGHER CHANCES) OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE TWO MAIN POINTS THAT NEED TO BE MADE RIGHT OFF THE TOP: FIRST OF ALL...BY FAR AND AWAY THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. ALONG THESE LINES...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA TO PART OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS DAY 3 OUTLOOK TECHNICALLY ONLY HIGHLIGHTS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...THIS FORECASTER IS OF THE OPINION THAT ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD CONSIDER ITSELF TO BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SLIGHT RISK EXPANDED IN AREA AS IT GETS INTO THE DAY 2 AND EVENTUALLY DAY 1 TIME FRAME. THE SECOND MAIN POINT TO EMPHASIZE FOR THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ESPECIALLY BY THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND THE PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS DURING THESE FINAL 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE. GIVEN THIS INHERENT UNCERTAINTY...MOST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME PERIODS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20S-30S...AND ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MODESTLY HIGHER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...HAVE TRIMMED OUT THE MENTION OF 50 POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURE WISE...MADE FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S ON MOST DAYS. HOWEVER...PROBABLY THE MOST CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS SATURDAY...WHICH ALSO HAS A CHANCE AT BEING THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST NUDGED UP HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES...GETTING MORE OF THE CWA INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S SOUTHWEST...THERE COULD EASILY BE ROOM FOR FUTURE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS...AS SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE CWA COULD FLIRT WITH LOW-90S...WITH SOUTHWEST AREAS POTENTIALLY EVEN UPPER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MOST NIGHTS ARE AIMED IN THE SEASONABLY-TYPICAL UPPER 50S-MID 60S RANGE...SO NOT FORESEEING ANY BIG SURPRISES HERE. AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED POTENTIAL HAZARDS...ITS BEEN AWHILE SINCE FORECAST SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE REALLY COME CLOSE TO SOLIDLY APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH. AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT ADVERTISE ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS...ITS AT LEAST LOOKING LIKE MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA COULD APPROACH IT ON SATURDAY. ON BOTH DAYS...THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GETTING INTO A BIT MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR BLOCKS... FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AND IN RESPONSE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 20 MPH IN EASTERN ZONES AND MORE SO 25-30 MPH IN THE WEST (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT...QUESTIONS ABOUT SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL ARISE...AS SOME MODELS ARE BONE DRY WHILE OTHERS GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE AXIS OF A VERY STRONG 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENT BY 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY...OPTED TO STAY THE COURSE AND LEAVE THE EVENING PERIOD VOID OF POPS...WHILE BLANKETING MOST OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...A ROGUE STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND ITS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE ROBUST EVENING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CWA TRIES TO SURVIVE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED OFF THE TOP THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD LIKELY COMMANDS THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST ATTENTION FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. COMPARED TO THE SEVERE EVENT THAT JUST OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY SETUP LOOKS TO BE MORE POTENT WITH A GREATER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS ARE LIKELY OVER-DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE DEPARTING FRI NIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CAPPED AS THE POTENT MID/UPPER WAVE SLIDES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AM EXPECTING RATHER VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY LIKELY TIED TO A FAIRLY NARROW ZONE ALONG THE INVADING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY RIPE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A WIND THREAT POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A NOTABLE TORNADO THREAT...CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THIS POSSIBILITY EITHER ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE THE LONGEST. HYDRO- WISE...COULD EASILY SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA RECEIVING A QUICK 1- 2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...BUT FORTUNATELY A GENERALLY DRY 48 HOURS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE ANY MORE THAN LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE MOST PART. POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ARE STILL IN THE LIKELY 60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN SOME AREAS. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IN REALITY THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY DRY/STORM-FREE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT POP IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING JUST IN CASE A LITTLE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY STILL LINGERS...AND HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE PRIMARY MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS START TO INCREASINGLY DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF GENERALLY KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOCAL FLOW MORE QUASI-ZONAL WITH VARIOUS PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY IS FAR TOO HIGH TO EVEN PINPOINT A TIME FRAME WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE. POPS ARE LARGELY A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AND FOR NOW THE HIGHEST 40 POPS ARE FOCUSED ON MONDAY DAYTIME BUT ITS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT WAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND EVEN SURFACE PATTERNS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS GET INCREDIBLY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A VERY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES...WHILE THE GFS IS COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS ARE GENERALLY AGREEING ON DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH LOW-END 20- 30 POPS UNTIL THINGS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z GRI TAF THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 TODAY: SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD SIZE BATCH OF MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCU IS DROPPING S TOWARD GRI. SIMULATED CLOUD COVER FROM HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE THREAT FOR MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE OVER IN THE 14Z- 15Z TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...VFR WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. N WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND GUST UP TO 23 KTS...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MVFR CLOUDS TONIGHT: VFR SKC. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND EVENTUALLY SE AFTER 05Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 RECENT RAINFALL: AS ANTICIPATED LAST EVENINGS STORMS DEVELOPED PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF BENEFICIAL RAIN WAS NARROW AND STRETCHED ACROSS ROOKS-OSBORNE- JEWELL COUNTIES. LOOKING AT ESTIMATED RAINFALL FOR THE PAST 4 WEEKS...THE AREA FROM THE TRI-CITIES SE TO HEBRON AND NE TO COLUMBUS HAS SEEN A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES. THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/ HAS SEEN A 2-6 INCH SURPLUS OR 125-200% OF NORMAL. UPSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2 WKS HAS BEEN 200-600% OF NORMAL. THAT HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE PLATTE RVR SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. THE FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR WRN DAWSON COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING AROUND GOTHENBURG. FCSTS INDICATE THAT BOTH THE N AND S BRANCHES AT COZAD WILL APPROACH OR WERE ALREADY NEAR ACTION STAGE. KEARNEY IS FCST TO CREST JUST SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND AND WE ISSUED AN ESF /HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ AT 1109 PM LAST EVENING FOR THIS. GRAND ISLAND IS FCST TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE PLATTE RVR SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS VIA THE RIVER&LAKES LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF OUR WEBPAGE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH AVIATION...HALBLAUB HYDROLOGY...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WEATHER AS OF LATE MORNING TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBSERATIONAL TRENDS. ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SLV TODAY WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONTINENTIAL AIRMASS FOSTERS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY TODAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED THOUGH...MAINLY SHOWERS. FURTHER EAST...MAINLY A COOL/MOIST/STABLE MARTIME AIRMASS FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. DID OPT TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY 2-4 DEGREES BASED OFF LATEST TRENDS AND PERSISTENT/LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD ON AND OFF SHOWERY WEATHER...WITH HIGHEST CONCENTRATION NORTH AND WEST. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TODAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S. HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S WARMER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS AT MPV. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 15Z...BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS BY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF1035 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS AT COLCHESTER REEF CONTINUE TO BLOW STEADILY 20-25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH SINCE ABOUT 2 A.M. THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO 3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL BE GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED BUT MAY DROP TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WEATHER AS OF LATE MORNING TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBSERATIONAL TRENDS. ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SLV TODAY WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONTINENTIAL AIRMASS FOSTERS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY TODAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED THOUGH...MAINLY SHOWERS. FURTHER EAST...MAINLY A COOL/MOIST/STABLE MARTIME AIRMASS FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. DID OPT TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY 2-4 DEGREES BASED OFF LATEST TRENDS AND PERSISTENT/LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD ON AND OFF SHOWERY WEATHER...WITH HIGHEST CONCENTRATION NORTH AND WEST. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TODAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S. HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S WARMER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS AT MPV. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 15Z...BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS BY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO 3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1018 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL COMPLEX WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF WET WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1010 AM UPDATE... SO FAR THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS ONLY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BGM FCST AREA. MAIN CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON REMAIN FOCUSED ON LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. RIGHT NOW...MAIN THING GOING AGAINST ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT SAID...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC WARM FRONT THAT REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF TO OUR WEST WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A NUMEROUS SHWR MENTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE FCST MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. AT 400 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DECREASE. THROUGH TONIGHT, A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM 1.50-1.80 INCHES ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER AROUND 10K FT. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED ACTIVITY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN NUMEROUS THROUGH EVENING. DUE TO CONTINUED E/SE COOL/STABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW CAPE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION BUT EVEN HERE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. WILL MENTION SCATTERED TRW WEST OF I81 AND ISOLATED EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER WITH UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ON FRIDAY, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW OVER NRN MINNESOTA WILL DROP THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES AND PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN JUICY UNTIL FROPA SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CAPE VALUES ARE BETTER GENERALLY 400-800 J/KG BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TALL/SKINNY CAPE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH NON IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR VALES AND MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATES LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO FOR MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN PTN OF CWA FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR. MAXES ON SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN VCNTY RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 700 AM EDT UPDATE... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.... PREVIOUS FORECAST... FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS WELL-ENTRENCHED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY EARLY WEEK AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TRACKING EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS FEATURE REMAINS STALLED TO OUR NORTH. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...STRONG WARM ADVECTION EARLY WEEK SHOULD ALLOW LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS STALLED FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WHOLE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN MVFR EXPECT FOR KSYR AND KRME. KSYR AND KRME ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR. KBGM WILL HAVE PERIODS OF IFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 14Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS SO DECIDED TO KEEP OUT OF TAF. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHTER AFTER SUNSET. CIGS MAY DETERIORATE FRIDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THUS DECIDED TO KEEP IFR OUT OF TAF ATTM. OUTLOOK... FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM SHWRS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURG THE AFTN/EVE HRS. SAT...BECOMING VFR. SUN...VFR. MON...VFR. CHC TSRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...CMG/KAH AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 731 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL...SO JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TODAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S. HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S WARMER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS AT MPV. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 15Z...BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS BY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO 3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 731 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL...SO JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TODAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S. HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S WARMER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS AT SLK IN HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 12Z...BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO 3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TODAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S. HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S WARMER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS AT MPV. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 15Z...BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS BY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO 3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY... MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WITH OBSERVED PW OVER 2 INCHES AND LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH AROUND 10K FT. WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING AND LIFTING...WITH BETTER EARLY HEATING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE COINCIDENT WITH THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE IS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ALREADY...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING TO TRAIN FROM WILSON NORTH TOWARD ROANOKE RAPIDS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS MLCAPE RISES TOWARD 1000 J/KG WITHOUT ANY CINH. YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WAS HEAVIEST NORTH OF HWY 64...AND THOSE AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TODAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. EARLY ON THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER/SLOW DESTABILIZATION...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR OVER UPSTATE SC THAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE DCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT BACK TOWARD THE KCLT/KGSP AREA AFTER 18Z...SO THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE APPROACHING THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WILL BE ADJUSTING LIKELY POPS TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE EAST THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. HIGHS MOSTLY 83-88. -BLS PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4-1.7 INCHES (HIGHEST ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE BEST DPVA IS PROGGED TO ALSO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...WITH MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA...IN ADDITION TO THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY... A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE/MCV ORIGINATING FROM THE DEVELOPING MCS OVER ARKLATEX ATTM WILL ADVANCE ESEWD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/DEEP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CORRALLED BY THE EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION INITIALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT WITH MORE EQUITABLE...DIURNAL CONVECTION AREA-WIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A RISE FROM NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 730 AM THURSDAY... PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT/LIFT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS (BUT STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES) RETURNING BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. IF A STORM IMPACTS A TERMINAL...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS...SO WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS/FOG IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. OUTLOOK...EXPECT A CONTINUED HIGHER THAN AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRD/MWS NEAR TERM...KRD/BLS SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...KRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1026 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE DAYS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST TO START THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH AND CENTRAL/WESTERN GLAKS UPPER TROF...AND IN BETWEEN THE ANOMALOUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH 1.5" TO 1.75" PW. OVERALL A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC SETUP TO WED. WHILE WE`RE LACKING THE LLJ WHICH ORGANIZED AND EMBOLDENED YDY EVENING`S CONVECTION TODAY...BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ELONGATED UPPER TROF REACHES SOUTHEAST OH/WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH MAX INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. NO DISAGREEMENTS HERE WITH THE PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT ASSESSMENT - THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND KEY INGREDIENTS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN/FF WITH LOCALIZED INTENSE /1+" PER HOUR/ RAIN RATES POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A QUICK 2-3" OVER A SHORT DURATION. THE BACKGROUND MEAN FLOW /SOUTH-TO- NORTH/ WOULD ALSO SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST TEMPORARY CELL TRAINING OR REPEAT AREAS OF +RA. THERE ARE SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BTWN THE OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODELS..BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE 00Z SPC SSEO DAY 1 MEAN PCPN SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1-2" JUST EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...WITH LOCALIZED 2-3" AMTS OVER THE SCNTRL MTNS. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SHWR CVRG INCR/DEVELOPING FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFT 15-16Z WITH MULTIPLE NWD MOVG BANDS/CLUSTERS...PERHAPS ALIGNING A QPF AXIS JUST EAST OF HIRES SSEO MEAN. NOTE: ONLY 6/7 SSEO MEMBERS WERE AVAILABLE FOR THIS RUN. THE WPC DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAFL OUTLOOK PLACES ALL BUT THE EXTREME ERN ZONES IN A SLGT RISK AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE HWO. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR FF...CURRENT FF WATCH FROM NOON UNTL MIDNIGHT RETAINED. THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH- CENTRAL MTNS ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO FF RISK...GIVEN YESTERDAYS LCL HVY RAIN AND THUS LOWER FFG. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA BECOMING THE MOST UNSTABLE THIS AFTN...S/W OF DIFFUSE QSTNRY WARM FRONT/SFC TROF WHICH APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE SUSQ. RIVER. CLOUDS/NMRS SHOWERS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH MUGGY OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM TO TOUCH ON IS THE SPC DAY 1 SEE TEXT/5% SVR PROB WHICH COVERS THE WRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. MOIST PROFILES WILL LEAD TO POOR LAPSE RATES WITH ML CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THE GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LVL FLOW SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL WIND THREAT AT BEST WITH PEAK GUSTS IN ANY TSTM CLUSTERS LKLY REMAINING SUB-SVR. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MDL DATA INDICATES SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AM IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVR THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA IN HIGH PWAT/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVR CENTRAL PA EARLY FRIDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OF THE REGION. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE OVR THE NW MTNS ARND MIDDAY AND REACH THE SE COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. MID LVL WINDS AND SHEAR PROFILES NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT GEFS OUTPUT INDICATES DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE DAY...IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS. ALMOST NO MDL SPREAD WITH TIMING OF CDFRONT...WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE SE ZONES BY LATE EVENING. NW FLOW WILL DELIVER A PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AIR FRI NIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING AND COOLER CONDS. WHERE PRES GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK LATE FRI NIGHT...PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSS OVR THE NW MTNS TOWARD DAWN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FAIR WX...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY GO A BIT BLW NORMAL...ESP SAT NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES PASS OVR THE AREA. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR WILL RETURN SUN-TUE...AS HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE E COAST. GEFS AND ECMWF ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE NR 17C MON- WED...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE PA WILL BE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE SE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...RING OF FIRE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MON-WED...AS HIGHER HUMIDITY WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH LIFR CONDS/NEAR AIRFIELD MINS OVER THE SERN AIRFIELDS MDT/LNS. SHRWS/EMBDD TSTMS ARE FCST TO INCR FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN CVRG AFT 15-16Z PER COSPA ACRS THE W-CNTRL AIRSPACE...PERHAPS ALIGNING ALONG OR NEAR SUBTLE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT WAVERING OVER CENTRAL PA. CIGS SHOULD MARGINALLY IMPROVE TO HIGH END MVFR OR LOW VFR BY THE AFTN. THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PREVAILING -SHRA WITH VCTS AT MOST SITES. BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN +RA ARE LKLY TO IMPACT AT LEAST A FEW AIRFIELDS THIS AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LKLY IFR CONDS OVER ERN SXNS/ZNY SECTOR. OUTLOOK... FRI...BCMG VFR/MVFR WITH SCT-NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA. SAT-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG. OTHERWISE VFR. MON...VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ010-017>019- 024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
716 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WV/IR STLT IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SSEWD THRU THE OH/TN VLYS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT LITTLE TO NO SPREAD IN BRINGING THIS ENERGY GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID-ATLC STATES BY 12Z FRI. DEEP LYRD SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LVL TROUGH...INCLUDING A STG 30+KT SSELY H85 JET OFF THE ATLC...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN VERY HIGH MSTR AVAILABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PW VALUES BTWN 1.50-1.75 INCHES. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND KEY INGREDIENTS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN/FF WITH LOCALIZED INTENSE /1+" PER HOUR/ RAIN RATES RESULTING IN A QUICK 2-3" OVER A SHORT DURATION. THE BACKGROUND MEAN FLOW /SOUTH-TO-NORTH/ WOULD ALSO SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST TEMPORARY CELL TRAINING OR REPEAT AREAS OF +RA. THERE ARE SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BTWN THE OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODELS..BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE 00Z SPC SSEO DAY 1 MEAN PCPN SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1-2" JUST EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...WITH LOCALIZED 2-3" AMTS OVER THE SCNTRL MTNS. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SHWR CVRG INCR/DEVELOPING FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFT 15-16Z WITH MULTIPLE NWD MOVG BANDS/CLUSTERS...PERHAPS ALIGNING A QPF AXIS JUST EAST OF HIRES SSEO MEAN. NOTE: ONLY 6/7 SSEO MEMBERS WERE AVAILABLE FOR THIS RUN. THE WPC DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAFL OUTLOOK PLACES ALL BUT THE EXTREME ERN ZONES IN A SLGT RISK AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE HWO. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR FF...COORDINATED WITH PBZ/LWX/PHI ON A FF WATCH FROM NOON UNTL MIDNIGHT. THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH- CENTRAL MTNS ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO FF RISK...GIVEN YESTERDAYS LCL HVY RAIN AND THUS LOWER FFG. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA BECOMING THE MOST UNSTABLE THIS AFTN...S/W OF DIFFUSE QSTNRY WARM FRONT/SFC TROF WHICH APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE SUSQ. RIVER. CLOUDS/NMRS SHOWERS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH MUGGY OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM TO TOUCH ON IS THE SPC DAY 1 SEE TEXT/5% SVR PROB WHICH COVERS THE WRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. MOIST PROFILES WILL LEAD TO POOR LAPSE RATES WITH ML CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THE GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LVL FLOW SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL WIND THREAT AT BEST WITH PEAK GUSTS IN ANY TSTM CLUSTERS LKLY REMAINING SUB-SVR. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MDL DATA INDICATES SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AM IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVR THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA IN HIGH PWAT/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVR CENTRAL PA EARLY FRIDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OF THE REGION. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE OVR THE NW MTNS ARND MIDDAY AND REACH THE SE COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. MID LVL WINDS AND SHEAR PROFILES NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT GEFS OUTPUT INDICATES DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE DAY...IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS. ALMOST NO MDL SPREAD WITH TIMING OF CDFRONT...WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE SE ZONES BY LATE EVENING. NW FLOW WILL DELIVER A PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AIR FRI NIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING AND COOLER CONDS. WHERE PRES GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK LATE FRI NIGHT...PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSS OVR THE NW MTNS TOWARD DAWN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FAIR WX...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY GO A BIT BLW NORMAL...ESP SAT NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES PASS OVR THE AREA. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR WILL RETURN SUN-TUE...AS HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE E COAST. GEFS AND ECMWF ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE NR 17C MON- WED...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE PA WILL BE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE SE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...RING OF FIRE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MON-WED...AS HIGHER HUMIDITY WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH LIFR CONDS/NEAR AIRFIELD MINS OVER THE SERN AIRFIELDS MDT/LNS. SHRWS/EMBDD TSTMS ARE FCST TO INCR FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN CVRG AFT 15-16Z PER COSPA ACRS THE W-CNTRL AIRSPACE...PERHAPS ALIGNING ALONG OR NEAR SUBTLE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT WAVERING OVER CENTRAL PA. CIGS SHOULD MARGINALLY IMPROVE TO HIGH END MVFR OR LOW VFR BY THE AFTN. THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PREVAILING -SHRA WITH VCTS AT MOST SITES. BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN +RA ARE LKLY TO IMPACT AT LEAST A FEW AIRFIELDS THIS AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LKLY IFR CONDS OVER ERN SXNS/ZNY SECTOR. OUTLOOK... FRI...BCMG VFR/MVFR WITH SCT-NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA. SAT-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG. OTHERWISE VFR. MON...VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ010-017>019-024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1007 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .DISCUSSION... TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF MIDDLE TN TODAY AND WILL BE REPLACE WITH A WEAK SHORT TERM RIDGE. A DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE THE TREND. BUT...ELEVATED MOISTURE STILL EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE CONTINUATION OF SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WE CONTINUE TO WARM. HRRR SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT FOR OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS BY 1 PM OR SO. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL REACH 1000-1500 J/KG. FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE PLATEAU FROM 20 PERCENT TO 30 PERCENT. OTW...TEMPS ALREADY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. BNA IS OUTRUNNING LATEST GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES. WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. SKY CONDITION LOOKS OK...SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR TODAY. UPDATE COMING OUT SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ MESOSCALE UPDATE... COLD POCKET AT 500 MBAR HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DOWN INTERSTATE 24 TOWARDS CHATTANOOGA. MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PLATEAU AS COLD POCKET EXTENDS UP INTO THAT AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. COLD POCKET ASSOCATED WITH UPPER TROUGH THATS BEEN A SLOW MOVER LAST SEVERAL HOURS. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
910 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR CLOUD COVER AND TO ADJUST MORNING TEMPERATURES. && .DISCUSSION... VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TEXAS MCS AND DECAYING NORTHERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN FORECASTED THIS MORNING....OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JAB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ DISCUSSION... EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...SO TEMPERATURES MIGHT FEEL A FEW DEGREES WARMER. A LARGE MCS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL TRACK IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...AND DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE MCS DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT TRACKS...THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...MY BET IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIELDS US FROM AND PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MCS SHOULD TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...BUT THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ITS OWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG...OR POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-55 IN EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND A BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE RESULT...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR OUT...BUT BY SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DEEP SOUTHEASTERN US WITH A BROAD TROUGH OUT WEST RESULTING IN WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDWEEK AS TEMPERATURES GET WARMER. HIGHS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S. SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF GUIDANCE AGAIN BASED ON A WARM BIAS I HAVE OBSERVED RECENTLY. LOOKS LIKE SUMMER HAS ARRIVED. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY... AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO THE JBR AREA AROUND 00Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR CONVECTIVE COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING THIS AFTERNOON. IF SO... TSRA COULD ARRIVE TO THE MIDSOUTH A LITTLE EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN THE 12Z TAFS. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
654 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ DISCUSSION... EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...SO TEMPERATURES MIGHT FEEL A FEW DEGREES WARMER. A LARGE MCS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL TRACK IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...AND DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE MCS DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT TRACKS...THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...MY BET IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIELDS US FROM AND PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MCS SHOULD TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...BUT THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ITS OWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG...OR POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-55 IN EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND A BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE RESULT...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR OUT...BUT BY SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DEEP SOUTHEASTERN US WITH A BROAD TROUGH OUT WEST RESULTING IN WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDWEEK AS TEMPERATURES GET WARMER. HIGHS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S. SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF GUIDANCE AGAIN BASED ON A WARM BIAS I HAVE OBSERVED RECENTLY. LOOKS LIKE SUMMER HAS ARRIVED. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY... AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO THE JBR AREA AROUND 00Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR CONVECTIVE COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING THIS AFTERNOON. IF SO... TSRA COULD ARRIVE TO THE MIDSOUTH A LITTLE EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN THE 12Z TAFS. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1042 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .UPDATE... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR GATESVILLE TO WACO TO ATHENS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE A MAJOR PLAYER CONCERNING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND WINDS ARE NORTHEAST. THIS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATES SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEATING AND WIND RECOVERY FOR ANY CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS ACTUALLY STILL ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WILL HEAD SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY HANDLES THIS WELL...IT HAS DONE A POOR JOB MODELING THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON... SINCE THE GUIDANCE DOESNT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MESOSCALE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LOCATION OF BOTH THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR OZONA WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA BENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE MAIN TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH LATER TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IT COULD BEHAVE MORE LIKE A WARM FRONT GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS BECOMES IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ARE RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED FROM MORNING CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BACKED MORE THAN INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000 J/KG WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 45KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO CONCUR WITH THIS AND ACTUALLY INDICATES WHAT APPEARS TO BE DISCRETE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPDATE WILL ADJUST POPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN RAISE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO UPDATE GRAPHICS ON THE WEB FOR THE LATEST THINKING. DUNN && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 702 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ /12Z TAFS/ MANY CHALLENGES TODAY REGARDING CONVECTIVE TIMING AND WIND SHIFTS. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS 15-30 KTS NOW PUSHING THROUGH DFW METRO AIRPORTS AND SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW WITH MIXING BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY. VFR WITH THUNDER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AT WACO...CAPPING INVERSION IS STRONGER THIS MORNING AND WILL HOLD ON TO JUST VCSH AND VFR THIS MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY HELPFUL WITH STORM OUTFLOW AND EXACT TIMING OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH TIMING STORM INITIATION. BEST GUESS IS FOR THE INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF DFW METRO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND DEPARTING BY EARLY EVENING. STORM TIMING AT WACO APPEARS TO BE LATE AFTERNOON AND CLEARING OUT BY MID EVENING. WE WILL CARRY A LIGHT N/NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DFW METRO TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT SHOULD STALL IN OR NEAR WACO OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT E/NE LATE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING AS WELL. 05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIZABLE AREA OF STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AND JUNE SUNSHINE HELPS PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 3 AM CDT...WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR DANGEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP IN THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A NEARLY EAST-WEST LINEAR SYSTEM BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AND DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL UNTIL THEY EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POPS TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL FOCUS GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS. A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD TO STRONG TO EXTREME LEVELS...ALSO ARGUES FOR LOWER POPS WEST AND HIGHER POPS EAST TODAY. THE CAP WILL BE STRONGEST IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...THE CAP IS WEAKER AND THE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER. THESE FACTORS JUSTIFY THE LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL END FRIDAY MORNING AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND MUGGY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY AFFECT TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. 09 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 71 87 72 92 / 40 50 10 5 10 WACO, TX 91 71 89 72 91 / 60 60 10 10 10 PARIS, TX 84 67 84 67 88 / 60 60 10 5 5 DENTON, TX 88 68 86 70 91 / 50 50 10 5 10 MCKINNEY, TX 87 66 86 68 89 / 50 50 10 5 10 DALLAS, TX 90 71 87 72 91 / 40 50 10 5 10 TERRELL, TX 86 69 87 69 90 / 50 60 10 5 10 CORSICANA, TX 90 71 88 71 90 / 60 60 10 5 10 TEMPLE, TX 91 71 89 71 91 / 60 60 10 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 68 86 70 93 / 40 40 5 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1033 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .UPDATE... MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... MONITORING CONVECTION OVER ANDERSON/HENDERSON/FREESTONE COUNTIES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION MIGHT MOVE INTO HOUSTON COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING AND MAYBE BE AN ISSUE FOR TRINITY/POLK COUNTIES. WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THOSE COUNTIES SHOULD IT BECOME MORE APPARENT THERE WILL BE AN IMPACT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS EVENING. NEW 12Z NAM AND EVEN PREVIOUS MESO MODELS CONTINUE SHOW THREAT OF A SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO THE REGION AROUND 7PM TO MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME OR 00Z-05Z. MODELS HINT AT MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER N TX WHICH COULD THEN PUSH DOWN INTO SE TX DURING THE EVENING. SPC HAS HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SLIGHT RISK AREA MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 FOR HOUSTON FORECAST AREA. HIGHER RISK EXISTS FARTHER NORTH BUT DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENT CONVECTIVE EVENT. CURIOUS ABOUT UPDATED DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC BUT SUSPECT RISK WILL NOT CHANGE. MAIN THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL DO 2 THINGS. INCREASE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AROUND 105 AND ALSO BUILD INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THREAT. HEATING WILL ALSO YIELD STEEP NEAR SFC DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FOR INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AS SUCH UPDATED FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO INCREASE POPS AND MENTION SEVERE THREAT. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. 39 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ DISCUSSION... SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION... NO CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. THE HRRR/4 KM NCEP WRF INITIALIZED BEST THIS MORNING BUT EACH MODEL DIFFERS ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY. THE 4 KM WRF LOOKS OVERDONE BUT IT IS VERIFYING BEST AT 11Z. THE RAP LOOKS THE MOST REASONABLE BUT IT INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY. THE HRRR INITIALIZED OK AND APPEARS TO BE MAYBE THE BEST COMPROMISE. WILL BRING CONVECTION SOUTHWARD AND FEEL KIAH...KCXO...KUTS AND KCLL WILL GET SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS EVENING WITH A SECONDARY BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA REDEVLOPING AND MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND 02Z. DESPITE THE OCCASIONAL SHOWWERS...CONDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY DRIVE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT SO TAFS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ DISCUSSION... CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING MCS IN OKLAHOMA. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THE SETUP FOR TODAY IS AS FOLLOWS. SHORTWAVE #1 IN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE FROM THE CURRENT MCS AND SHORTWAVE #1. IN GENERAL... HIGH RES MODELS SHOW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED LINE AND PUSHING TO THE EAST. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN THE SHEAR AXIS ANALYZED ON THE CURRENT 0Z 850 MAP THIS MORNING WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO RUN NORTH SOUTH FROM OUR AREA TOWARDS TYLER TEXAS. HIGH MODELS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE PAST THIS TIME FRAME. THE 4KM NCEP WRF INTENSIFIES THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP AND MOVES IT INTO OUR AREA. THE TEXAS TECH WRF... HRRR ...AND RAP WEAKEN THE PRECIP. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE PRECIP WEAKENING DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS ~1.5"). UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO APPEARS TO BE WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO WIN OUT. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY PRECIP THAT MIGHT CUT ACROSS. IT COULD ALSO BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS AN 850 BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND FOUR DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH CIRRUS THE AREA WILL SEE THOUGH FROM CONVECTION OFF TO OUR NORTH. IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT IF A COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH. MID 90S LOOKS VERY LIKELY FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS THOUGH. ALONG THE COAST THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPS MORE TAME. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SHORTWAVE #2 CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ARIZONA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AS IT MOVES EAST AND ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE. THURSDAY EVENING IT IS FORECASTED TO BE ENTERING CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SOME TYPE OF MCS FORMING AND HEADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. BEFORE THIS THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS VARY GREATLY AND THEREFORE PRODUCE VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS ON HOW THE LINE IS HANDLED. AS OF CURRENT THE HRRR/ RAP HAVE SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE BEST AND SHOW THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 0Z FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A SECTION OF THE RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW A WEDGE OF PV TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFLUENCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT THE SIGNAL IS WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 1.8" WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. BECAUSE OF THIS SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY THREATS APPEAR TO BE WIND AND HAIL. FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO DROP SLIGHTLY BUT GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW LARGE INSTABILITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. DUE TO THIS SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL FALL INTO THE CONVERGENT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE AREA WILL START TO DRY OUT. SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. 23 MARINE... WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS DEEPENS. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 73 90 74 91 / 20 60 30 20 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 95 75 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 20 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 88 80 87 79 87 / 10 30 30 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .DISCUSSION... SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... NO CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. THE HRRR/4 KM NCEP WRF INITIALIZED BEST THIS MORNING BUT EACH MODEL DIFFERS ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY. THE 4 KM WRF LOOKS OVERDONE BUT IT IS VERIFYING BEST AT 11Z. THE RAP LOOKS THE MOST REASONABLE BUT IT INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY. THE HRRR INITIALIZED OK AND APPEARS TO BE MAYBE THE BEST COMPROMISE. WILL BRING CONVECTION SOUTHWARD AND FEEL KIAH...KCXO...KUTS AND KCLL WILL GET SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS EVENING WITH A SECONDARY BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA REDEVLOPING AND MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND 02Z. DESPITE THE OCCASIONAL SHOWWERS...CONDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY DRIVE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT SO TAFS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ DISCUSSION... CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING MCS IN OKLAHOMA. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THE SETUP FOR TODAY IS AS FOLLOWS. SHORTWAVE #1 IN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE FROM THE CURRENT MCS AND SHORTWAVE #1. IN GENERAL... HIGH RES MODELS SHOW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED LINE AND PUSHING TO THE EAST. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN THE SHEAR AXIS ANALYZED ON THE CURRENT 0Z 850 MAP THIS MORNING WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO RUN NORTH SOUTH FROM OUR AREA TOWARDS TYLER TEXAS. HIGH MODELS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE PAST THIS TIME FRAME. THE 4KM NCEP WRF INTENSIFIES THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP AND MOVES IT INTO OUR AREA. THE TEXAS TECH WRF... HRRR ...AND RAP WEAKEN THE PRECIP. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE PRECIP WEAKENING DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS ~1.5"). UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO APPEARS TO BE WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO WIN OUT. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY PRECIP THAT MIGHT CUT ACROSS. IT COULD ALSO BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS AN 850 BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND FOUR DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH CIRRUS THE AREA WILL SEE THOUGH FROM CONVECTION OFF TO OUR NORTH. IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT IF A COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH. MID 90S LOOKS VERY LIKELY FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS THOUGH. ALONG THE COAST THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPS MORE TAME. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SHORTWAVE #2 CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ARIZONA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AS IT MOVES EAST AND ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE. THURSDAY EVENING IT IS FORECASTED TO BE ENTERING CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SOME TYPE OF MCS FORMING AND HEADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. BEFORE THIS THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS VARY GREATLY AND THEREFORE PRODUCE VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS ON HOW THE LINE IS HANDLED. AS OF CURRENT THE HRRR/ RAP HAVE SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE BEST AND SHOW THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 0Z FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A SECTION OF THE RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW A WEDGE OF PV TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFLUENCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT THE SIGNAL IS WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 1.8" WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. BECAUSE OF THIS SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY THREATS APPEAR TO BE WIND AND HAIL. FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO DROP SLIGHTLY BUT GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW LARGE INSTABILITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. DUE TO THIS SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL FALL INTO THE CONVERGENT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE AREA WILL START TO DRY OUT. SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. 23 MARINE... WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS DEEPENS. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 73 90 74 91 / 20 50 30 20 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 95 75 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 20 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 88 80 87 79 87 / 10 30 30 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
339 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 2014 .Synopsis... An upper low in the Pacific NW and NorCal is enhancing the delta breeze. This will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal through Friday and could bring coastal stratus into the delta and southern Sacramento valley during night/morning hours with the onshore flow. Warmer temperatures are expected over the weekend and into early next week as flat high pressure moves across the region. Temperatures expected to stay above normal through the remainder of the week. && .Discussion... Travis AFB had been gusting around 25-28 mph for the past 3 hours, but, as models suggested, the onshore flow is beginning to increase again. Latest observation at Travis AFB has gusts back up to 32 mph. The HRRR and NAM both showed an increase from about 22z to 03z where gusts could range from 30-40 mph in the delta region. Current temperatures for the valley are in the low 80s with delta region in the 70s, higher terrain in the 60s. Compared to 24 hours ago, these temps are running a few to several degrees cooler than yesterday. Redding & Red Bluff are both 9 degrees cooler in comparison to Wednesday at 3pm. The enhanced "air conditioning" from the Delta Breeze is from an upper level trough impacting the Pacific NW & NorCal. This trough will continue onshore flow and keep our CWA at near to below normal max temps through tomorrow. The trough will push eastward on Saturday and that means a warmer weekend while the delta breeze weakens. The valley will leave the 80s behind and see widespread low to mid 90s on Sat & Sun. By Sunday, the max temps will range from a couple to about 7 degrees above normal. JBB && .Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday) Low confidence in the extended period with poor model agreement and run-to-run consistency. The GFS builds a ridge across California for much of next week, bringing warm and dry conditions with benign weather. The ECMWF and GEM drop a trough from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. This "inside slider" could bring another round of breezy north winds and elevated fire concerns for the middle of next week. We`ll continue to monitor the model trends before gaining confidence in either solution. Dang && .Aviation... Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Areas of MVFR/IFR marine stratus may again extend through the Delta into the southern Sacramento Valley late tonight into early Friday morning. Generally south to west winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt will continue across the Valley through this evening. Near the Delta and over higher elevations, southwest wind gusts up to 35 kt possible. Dang && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... wind advisory until 8 pm pdt this evening carquinez strait and delta. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
320 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED TO DIG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SIERRA CREST...INDIAN WELLS VALLEY...AND THE MOJAVE AREA. WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT MOJAVE...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND NAMDNG INDICATING WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 06Z HOUR. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTED TO HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT IS SUCH A SMALL AREA THAT WE DECIDED TO SEND OUT THE MESSAGE VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THE GUSTY WINDS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM DOES INDICATE THAT MU CAPE WILL INCREASE TO 600-700 J/KG ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST IN FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...LI VALUES FALL TO -3.5...ADDING A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER A QUICK CHAT WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICE IN LAS VEGAS...THEY DID MENTION THAT THE STRONG WINDS MAY SHEER OFF ANY TOWERING CU...INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGED FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE VALLEY...BETWEEN 2 AND 8 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE. OTHERWISE...COOLING WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO SOUTHERN CA. THE NAM DOES SHOW ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND MOJAVE AREA. IN FACT...THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY. AGAIN...THESE WINDS DO LOOK TO BE IN A VERY CONFINED AREA. SUBTLE WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 500 DM HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 DEGREES C BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC...RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. && .AVIATION... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND KERN DESERT BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS THROUGH 09Z FRIDAY AND AGAIN AFTER 19Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ON THURSDAY JUNE 12 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN COUNTY. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR KFAT 06-12 107:1985 66:1998 73:1985 47:1952 KFAT 06-13 107:1949 69:1922 71:1985 47:1907 KFAT 06-14 108:1966 65:1962 72:2007 42:1907 KBFL 06-12 110:1979 63:1998 75:1979 38:1907 KBFL 06-13 106:1940 75:1907 76:1975 41:1907 KBFL 06-14 111:1961 70:1962 78:1975 43:1907 && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...RILEY AVN/FW...SANGER WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
331 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. STILL MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS THE REST OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. NOT THUNDERSTORMS YET...BUT HRRR APPEARS THE REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN ZONE 36. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...TOO COOL AND STABLE FOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTN. MARGINAL FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR AS WELL BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE DENVER CYCLONE MAY TIP THE SCALES TOWARDS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. NOTHING AT THIS TIME...BUT 73/50 TEMP/DEWPOINT COULD YIELD CAPES TOWARDS 1000 J/KG. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP IN WILL BE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE PRESENTLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN DENVER. HRRR STILL SHOWING A STRONG TSTM OR TWO OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...SO WL GO WITH CHC POPS THERE WITH SLGT CHC ELSEWHERE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AMS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15+ DEGREES. LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN ZONES 48>51. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOT CONTINUES FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. AIRMASS FAIRLY WARM AND DRY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY LINE EAST OF A STERLING TO AKRON LINE EARLY IN THE EVENING PUSHING INTO KANSAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLES BY MIDNIGHT. LATEST NAM STILL INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER...WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW POPS THERE. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAIRLY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED MOST AREAS WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ONGOING. ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING INTO COLORADO WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER MONTANA. COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF INDICATING THE FRONT REACHING THE DENVER AREA AROUND 15Z WHILE THE GFS INDICATING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT DENVER SOMETIME AFTER 18Z. THIS TIMING WILL CERTAINLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. LATEST NAM AND ECMWF GUIDANCE MUCH COOLER FOR DENVER WITH A HIGH OF ONLY 74 FROM THE NAM AND 75 FROM THE ECMWF WHILE THE GUIDANCE MUCH WARMER WITH A HIGH 88. BELIEVE THE GFS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM SOLUTION. MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SHEAR FAIRLY WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EVENING THEN INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE STORM CHANCES MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE EVENING THEN EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES TO THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR A BIT OF STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES LOW FOR NOW TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS. ON SUNDAY...STILL SOME MODEL SIMILARITIES WITH A COOL AND MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN THEIR DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE GFS BEGINS A PROGRESSIVE SHIFT OF THE TROUGH EASTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. GFS CONTINUES WITH THE PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN MOVING IT INTO TOWARD COLORADO BY THURSDAY. THESE OBVIOUS DIFFERENCES TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW...SO WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND KEEP LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 DENVER CYCLONE STILL IN PLACE BUT WITH A CONVERGENCE LINE FM JUST WEST OF DIA TO CENTENNIAL. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE. LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME SO VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE. BKN CIGS 030-050 MAY LINGER AT KDEN AND KBJC THROUGH THIS AFTN...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS A DRIER AMS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z WITH SSWLY WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 SLGT CHC OF TSTMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT FLOODING RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ON THE PLAINS. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER...LIMITING THE SNOW MELT. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...COOPER LONG TERM...D-L AVIATION...COOPER HYDROLOGY...COOPER/D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1121 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND STRATUS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALONG/NORTH OF THE RATON RIDGE. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES IN ALOFT THOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SUBTLE FEATURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BACK ACROSS WESTERN NV THAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES THROUGH THE RIDGE ACROSS CO DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FORCING LOOKS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOWS UP BEST IN THE PRESSURE FIELD ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL VORTICITY SURFACE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PINNED UP IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS SUCH AS THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN DEW POINTS TODAY. CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH THIS MOISTURE MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE AFFECT THIS HAS ON CAPE VALUES. NAM12 KEEPS SFC DEWS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS IN THE 40S WITH POCKETS OF MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME PLACES. GFS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...WHILE SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS LIKE RAP13 AND HRRR DROP DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. NAM12 CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT CERTAINLY THINK THAT UP TO 1000 J/KG IS DOABLE AS RAP SUGGESTS. 0-6 KM SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS...WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THE INSTABILITY BE REALIZED. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS THEY DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WHERE A HEALTHY CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS WITH ANY STORMS TODAY IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS TODAY. OF COURSE WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS IMPACT THE BURN SCARS. THREAT TODAY LOOKS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE OF STORMS IN HIGH RES MODELS...THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER OUT WEST. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. -KT .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION STARTING FRIDAY...WITH WARM AND DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO WESTERN CO. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO SOUTHERN CO THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE. THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE ADVANCING DRY AIR...SO IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME CONVECTION FRI AFTN AND EVE WILL BE ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE. SAT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO E CO LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES OFF THE MAX TEMP FOR THE PLAINS ON SUN...AS WELL AS BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION BACK TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 F FOR THE PLAINS AND AROUND 80 F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS BOTH FRI AND SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE EAST ON SUN. ONE THING TO NOTE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SAT...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT FUELS ARE IN GREEN UP SO A FIREWX HIGHLIGHT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW FORECAST FOR THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH JUST ISOLATED MT CONVECTION EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE...WHICH SHOULD FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN INTO E CO FOR WED. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 F ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PLAINS BOTH MON AND TUE...THEN DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR WED. MOORE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014 CONDITIONS AT KCOS ARE EXPECTED TO GO FROM MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z...AND THEN GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. KPUB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. KALS WILL ALSO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
628 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE NEAR TERM CONDITIONS...INCREASING POPS FOR THE PALM BEACH AREA AND DECREASING POPS FOR THE GULF COAST AND FAR SOUTH. ALSO...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, SO WENT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/ SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT) RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL (GFS INDICATES A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER NERN GULF BY SATURDAY NIGHT). THIS WILL KEEP THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT- TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH THE SW MEAN LOW-LEVEL (1000-700 MB) FLOW CONTINUING. ALTHOUGH THE KINEMATICS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NOTED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE (ISOLATED) STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS EACH DAY WITH MID-LEVEL OR 500 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -9.5 TO -11 DEG C. ADDITIONALLY... CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE VULNERABLE OR SENSITIVE AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE BEGINS TO FILL AND POTENTIALLY CUT OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE NERN GULF...PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY. 85/AG LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY) MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CONVECTION MAY SLOW DOWN SOME. WHILE MODELS ARE COMING IN MAINLY DRY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY, HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. /SI AVIATION... MORNING CONVECTION HAS LOCALLY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE KEEPING CONVECTION FROM FORMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LEFTOVER CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS...WHICH IS FURTHER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LATEST HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY STARTING AROUND 20Z DUE TO BETTER HEATING IN THESE AREAS. THEREFORE DECIDED TO DELAY VCTS UNTIL AFTER 20Z FOR ALL OF THE EAST COAST SITES. MARINE... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 72 90 74 89 / 80 40 20 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 75 90 77 90 / 60 40 20 40 MIAMI 74 91 76 90 / 40 40 20 40 NAPLES 73 88 72 90 / 20 40 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 ...RAINY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA... .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)... A 500 MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO HANG OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY. RADAR DETECTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR...WITH SOME CELLS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS BOTH DEPICT THESE FOCUS AREAS WELL WITH LOW LEVEL JETS OF 20-30 KTS AT 700 MB. PREFERRED THE MET IN A BLEND FOR MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN CHALLENGING. LOCAL GUIDANCE AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORTED HIGHER POPS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4...THE TOUGHEST CALL HAS BEEN IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE MUCH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED SO FAR TODAY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE COMING HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE LATER IN THE EVENING OVER LAND...BUT ACTIVITY OVER THE WATER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. AS THE SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...OVER THE WATER DEVELOPS...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH IT ONSHORE. HAVE KEPT THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT THAN INLAND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE...WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL TO LIMIT REACHING INTO THE 90S AND KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. .MID TERM (FRIDAY-SATURDAY)... THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO FILL LATE FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE MOVES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL...AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING WILL MARCH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE. WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE STATE...BUT THE MORNING HOURS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ONTO THE COAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY EAST OF I-75. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)... NO SIGNIFICANT MID OR UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE NATURE COAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH WEAK WIND FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID- LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON TO MOVE INLAND WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY EAST OF I-75 EACH DAY. && .AVIATION... A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR MOST TERMINALS...LAL HAS SOME TSRA TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT THE MOMENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH SOME VARIABLE GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH COASTAL TERMINALS /SRQ/TPA/PIE/ COULD SEE SOME VCSH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION AGAIN ON FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAF AS OF THIS ISSUANCE. && .MARINE... SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR THE WIND FLOW TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE ONLY HAZARD EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS AND MOVING INLAND. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS... OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. && .FIRE WEATHER... ONLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY ARE ELEVATED DISPERSION INDEX VALUES INLAND AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDS STAYING BELOW CONCERN CRITERIA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 89 74 88 / 30 60 30 60 FMY 74 91 72 90 / 40 40 30 60 GIF 72 90 72 91 / 40 60 20 60 SRQ 74 88 73 88 / 40 40 30 40 BKV 70 90 68 89 / 30 50 30 60 SPG 77 87 77 87 / 30 50 30 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA MARINE...74/WYNN MID TERM/LONG TERM...63/JILLSON DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
229 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT) RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL (GFS INDICATES A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER NERN GULF BY SATURDAY NIGHT). THIS WILL KEEP THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT- TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH THE SW MEAN LOW-LEVEL (1000-700 MB) FLOW CONTINUING. ALTHOUGH THE KINEMATICS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NOTED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE (ISOLATED) STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS EACH DAY WITH MID-LEVEL OR 500 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -9.5 TO -11 DEG C. ADDITIONALLY... CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE VULNERABLE OR SENSITIVE AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE BEGINS TO FILL AND POTENTIALLY CUT OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE NERN GULF...PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY. 85/AG .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY) MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CONVECTION MAY SLOW DOWN SOME. WHILE MODELS ARE COMING IN MAINLY DRY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY, HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. /SI && .AVIATION... MORNING CONVECTION HAS LOCALLY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE KEEPING CONVECTION FROM FORMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LEFTOVER CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS...WHICH IS FURTHER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LATEST HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY STARTING AROUND 20Z DUE TO BETTER HEATING IN THESE AREAS. THEREFORE DECIDED TO DELAY VCTS UNTIL AFTER 20Z FOR ALL OF THE EAST COAST SITES. && .MARINE... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 72 90 74 89 / 40 40 20 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 75 90 77 90 / 40 40 20 40 MIAMI 74 91 76 90 / 40 40 20 40 NAPLES 73 88 72 90 / 40 40 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...10/CD SHORT TERM...85/AG LONG TERM...SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1207 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]... A subtle surface front - evident in the surface pressure, wind, and dewpoint fields - stretches across the area from SW to NE. This front was roughly along a line from Panama City, to Bainbridge, to northern Berrien County as of 16Z. During the morning hours, scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed along and ahead of the front and a few have been strong-severe with gusty winds. The environment ahead of the front is characterized by moderate instability of 1500-2000 j/kg and about 20 knots of effective bulk shear, which has been sufficient for some organized multicell thunderstorms. There are also some notable dry layers in the mid-levels of the atmosphere per the 12Z Tallahassee sounding, as well as RAP analysis, so delta theta-E values are quite elevated (25-30K). Such values can be favorable for stronger downbursts, and we have already seen evidence of that in a few storms. Therefore, "gusty winds" wording was added to the forecast where more concentrated areas of thunderstorms are expected. We decreased PoPs in the northwest half of the area - behind the front - where dewpoints have dropped enough to reduce instability substantially. Although a larger area of thunderstorms is close to exiting our forecast area as of 16Z, additional scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. && .Marine... A SCEC headline was added to the east of Apalachicola earlier this morning with several observation sites reporting sustained winds in the 15-18 knot range. Winds should generally diminish this afternoon (outside of thunderstorms), so the SCEC headline will probably be able to be dropped later this afternoon or evening. Winds and seas will continue to diminish Friday and remain minimal through the weekend. && .Prev Discussion [606 AM EDT]... .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... Weakening upper trough axis will slide east of the forecast area overnight tonight. Any remaining convection this evening should be confined to the far eastern zones. Another shortwave is forecast to dig into the base of the broad eastern CONUS trough on Friday, leading to an increase in afternoon and evening convection, especially west of the Apalachicola River where highest PoPs are expected. The aforementioned shortwave is forecast to transition into a cutoff low by Saturday as heights rise over the Ohio Valley. With the cutoff low situated over the northeastern Gulf Coast, expect to see an enhancement of the typical sea-breeze convection for Saturday. Given the expected coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, high temps will likely be at or a little below normal for Friday and Saturday. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... Wet scenario to continue into extended period. The larger scale pattern shows a mid level trough moving into the Lower MS Valley with this feature developing into a low over MS on Sat. A surface ridge will remain south of the area through the period. This will increase onshore (mainly SW) flow across Gulf region. The approaching low will most likely stall out bringing cloud cover and rain Friday night until Tuesday with the support of an upper level trough. This pattern is indicative of higher than typical rain chances for the region. By Wednesday high pressure will return bringing a drier weather pattern. .Aviation... [Through 12z Friday] Mainly VFR conditions will prevail. Scattered convection is expected this morning through this afternoon with the best chance at TLH and VLD and lower chances farther to the west. .Fire Weather... No big fire weather concerns are expected through the next several days. Dispersions may climb above 75 this afternoon over most of the area away from the coast. .Hydrology... All area rivers are below flood stage. An upper level trough will bring scattered rain chances for the region through the weekend. While locally heavy rain will be possible, significant impacts on river levels are not anticipated. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 85 71 90 69 88 / 60 30 40 30 50 Panama City 85 74 87 71 87 / 30 10 40 30 50 Dothan 90 70 91 69 90 / 10 20 50 40 50 Albany 91 69 91 69 90 / 10 20 30 30 50 Valdosta 91 69 90 68 87 / 70 30 40 30 50 Cross City 83 70 89 68 88 / 70 30 30 30 50 Apalachicola 85 75 87 71 85 / 60 10 40 30 50 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...DVD MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT/CAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
607 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 605 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014 The forecast is largely on track this evening, just made a few tweaks to account for ongoing trends. Shortwave ridging has built into the region for the time being, meaning any precip threat has come to an end. Attention will then turn toward the west over the next few hours as a shortwave trough and associated low pressure/MCV work into the region. A few strong storms have been noted across portions of NE Arkansas where a low-level theta-e axis resides and associated stronger instability. This better thunderstorm coverage should continue to work ESE along this axis this evening into portions of TN. Further north across our area, still expect mainly showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder overnight. Have slowed down the timing of this precip into the region by an hour or two based on the latest HRRR which has a decent handle on ongoing convection, otherwise the rest of the forecast looks on target. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014 Other than a stray shower lingering in our far east, we should see a quiet evening as brief upper level ridging takes over behind the departing trough. A look at visible satellite imagery shows cu not really becoming more agitated, and water vapor imagery shows drier air working in from the west. Meanwhile, current radar only shows one blip in Cumberland county so won`t even carry mention of isolated showers as coverage is less than 20%. Temperatures are right on track to top out right around 80 and in the low 80s. As we move into the overnight, a cold front trailing from a potent upper level system over the upper Great Lakes will approach, passing through by mid afternoon on Friday. Expect widely scattered to scattered showers/iso T along this boundary as it passes, with numerous showers possible along the Tennessee border, where better deep moisture will be present. Looking upstream at what is currently going on compared to what model QPF shows would leave me to believe that coverage may end up being on the lower side. Especially, if you consider how poorly models have performed lately with QPF fields. Nevertheless, with the frontal passage and at least some deep moisture to work with, 30-50% coverage in most spots is reasonable. Best timing will be from around dawn through midday across central and western parts of the CWA. Showers/storms could linger into the early evening east. Look for lows tonight mainly in the 61-66 degree range. Highs on Friday will be a bit tricky due to the frontal passage/cloud cover. Will go aggressively cool in the eastern CWA where low clouds will hang the longest and only top out in the low 70s. Elsewhere, the CWA should see enough sun mid to late afternoon to find the mid and upper 70s. Surface high pressure and ridging aloft build in by Friday night leading to a clear and very cool night. Have most lows dropping into the 52-57 degree range! A few slightly cooler spots may be possible in sheltered valleys. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014 After a brief cooldown Saturday will begin a transition back to warm and humid conditions across the region. High pressure at the surface will begin to shift east and return flow will set up bringing moisture back in to the area. Aloft ridging will build across the southeastern CONUS. A low pressure system will form across the Plains and track into MN Saturday through Sunday and its cold front will approach the area through Monday. However, it is expected to stall across Indiana, keeping the forecast area in southerly flow through mid week. Saturday looks to be the coolest day of the period, with the lowest dewpoints as well. Highs will top out in the lower 80s. Sunday`s temps will top out in the mid 80s with dewpoints rising back into the mid 60s. An isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out across the far south central Kentucky on Sunday, but think the chance is fairly low, so will keep the forecast dry for now. Rain chances will return next week as warm and humid conditions lead to disorganized afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Afternoons will be quite muggy with highs topping out in the upper 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Issued at 113 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014 Mainly VFR conditions expected through this forecast cycle, although could reduce visibilities overnight in fog and/or light showers, and bring in lower ceilings on Friday. Any chance for a shower late this afternoon/evening would only be at LEX, and even then chances/coverage are too low to mention. A cold front will approach overnight, with most of the precipitation and potential lower ceilings post frontal. Therefore, think the initial lower visibilities will be due to fog/mist at BWG/LEX, however as the front passes more solid MVFR ceilings are possible along with scattered showers and a rumble of thunder. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........KJD Short Term.....BJS Long Term......EER Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .AVIATION...ADDED VCTS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT ACADIANA TAF SITES AS ONCOMING MCS OUT OF EAST TEXAS ALTHOUGH WEAKENING, IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OUTFLOW TO BUCKLE THE CAP AND ALLOW CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. APPROACHING TROF TNITE SHOULD REINITIATE CONVECTION SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS AFTER 09Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. SWEENEY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ DISCUSSION... CONVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS NE TX THIS MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DEFINITELY MADE A COME BACK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...THE AIR HAS THAT SWALLOW YOU FEEL TO IT WHEN YOU WALK OUTSIDE. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS EVERYTHING COVERED QUITE WELL...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE THIS MORNING BEING THE INCLUSION OF SMALL POPS ACROSS THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND HRRR GUIDANCE...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THIS INITIAL ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO REACH THAT FAR SOUTH AND/OR SEE NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERATED ALONG SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOWS. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ DISCUSSION... CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E GULF...KEEPING A FAIRLY LIGHT S FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS INLAND ARE MAINLY CALM OR VERY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS NEAR 70S TO THE LOWER 70S PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SE ACROSS KS/N OK THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING A LARGE MCS OVER C OK. THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SSE TODAY AND ACROSS NE TX/N LA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS SHOW REGENERATION/CONTINUATION OF THIS COMPLEX AS IT CONTINUES SSE THIS EVENING. WITH AMPLE INFLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT...ITS EXPECTED TO KEEP ITS INTENSITY THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA. FOR THIS...SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THRU 12Z FRI. KEPT THE INCREASING POP TREND BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF SE TX/W LA...WITH THE HIGHER POPS SPREADING SSE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE TX/C AND S LA BETWEEN 06-18Z FRI. FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ONLY ISO SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE DIMINISHES A BIT...AND WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON HEATING. FOR MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM TX...FURTHER LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE A BIT...WITH MID/UPPER 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS. MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 90 76 87 74 89 / 10 40 50 30 20 KBPT 90 76 87 74 88 / 10 40 50 20 20 KAEX 92 72 87 70 90 / 20 50 50 20 20 KLFT 91 75 87 73 89 / 10 30 50 30 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2014 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .DISCUSSION... Update forthcoming. Have removed strong wording regarding thunderstorms this evening for the western portion of the county warning area. GFS and NAM indicate convective development after 00z but severe parameters do not appear overly impressive. Also, HRRR and RUC analysis do not show significant thunderstorm development or coverage after 00z. Awaiting SPC update this morning but their earlier update dropped the `See Text` message that was there earlier. Temperatures look on track. && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1745Z. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over southwest Montana after 21z then spread northeast into the evening. These thunderstorms are expected to affect KHLN and possibly KGTF/KLWT but should stay north of KBZN and not reach KHVR. Other thunderstorms could affect KCTB. The thunderstorms are expected to weaken by mid-evening. There will be local wind gusts to 40 knots with the thunderstorms with a threat of brief MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain. Small hail could also occur. Then later this evening into early Friday morning showers and possibly thunderstorms will affect the area from the northern Rocky Mountain Front through KCTB and possibly as far east as KHVR. There will be at least a brief period of heavy rain and MVFR/IFR conditions. Guidance suggests MVFR ceilings could become widespread from the northern Rocky Mountain Front to east of KCTB by Friday morning with mountains becoming obscured. Farther south a cold front will move east through the forecast area late tonight and Friday morning. Expect scattered showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms with the front and conditions should generally be VFR. Blank && .PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 405 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2014 Today through Saturday...A progressive pattern aloft will transition the forecast area from generally quiet and warm today to cooler and unsettled on Saturday. Main driving force in weather through the short term period is a relatively strong trough that is currently off the Pacific Northwest coast. This system will move inland today bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the western mountains by late afternoon. Precipitation coverage becomes widespread over the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and spreads out over the adjacent plains of my northwest forecast zones overnight. There is also a chance that an isolated storm or two could become borderline severe with large hail and strong winds during the early evening hours. Latest models suggests that the best location for any strong to severe storms will remain west of a line from western Hill County southwest through Great Falls to Butte. For Friday through Saturday, models in good agreement moving the upper trough over the Northern Rockies and transitioning to a positive tilt trough extending northeastward into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. During this time frame temperatures will fall below seasonal averages with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each period. mpj Saturday night through Thursday...An interesting divergence in model solutions for the long term as models continue to struggle with the progression of a low pressure disturbance transitioning from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest. GFS solution tries restart the progressive zonal flow and quickly propels the disturbance out of the area by Tuesday evening. The ECMWF and GEM both retrograde and deepen the low over the rocky mountains and allow for it to produce significantly more precipitation over the region through the bulk of the long term. There is some credence for the GFS solution as the ECMWF ensemble suite does also move the system out faster than the operation model, but still slower than the GFS. Have leaned towards the cooler and wetter solution of the ECMWF, however did reduce pops slightly below model solutions due to the lack of confidence. Regardless of the inconsistencies in the extreme long term, this weekend does look to be unsettled as all models continue to have diffluent flow and multiple impulses move across the area through Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to remain near or below seasonal averages through the extended. Suk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 75 46 69 42 / 10 30 30 30 CTB 71 45 63 40 / 10 60 50 30 HLN 80 49 71 43 / 20 30 30 30 BZN 79 44 71 40 / 10 20 60 60 WEY 73 37 65 30 / 10 10 40 40 DLN 79 45 68 39 / 20 20 50 50 HVR 74 46 72 43 / 10 40 40 30 LWT 69 44 67 40 / 10 20 40 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1010 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2014 .DISCUSSION... Update forthcoming. Have removed strong wording regarding thunderstorms this evening for the western portion of the county warning area. GFS and NAM indicate convective development after 00z but severe parameters do not appear overly impressive. Also, HRRR and RUC analysis do not show significant thunderstorm development or coverage after 00z. Awaiting SPC update this morning but their earlier update dropped the `See Text` message that was there earlier. Temperatures look on track. && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1150Z. VFR conditions will prevail through the bulk of the forecast period..however convection is expected to initiate after 00z over the area with some strong/severe thunderstorms possible across Central and North Central Montana. Showers will continue to move into the area with decent instability aloft overnight. Thunderstorm threat should diminish late into the evening hours, however scattered showers will continue through the remainder of period. Brief intrusion below VFR conditions are expected near showers and thunderstorms. Suk && .PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 405 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2014 Today through Saturday...A progressive pattern aloft will transition the forecast area from generally quiet and warm today to cooler and unsettled on Saturday. Main driving force in weather through the short term period is a relatively strong trough that is currently off the Pacific Northwest coast. This system will move inland today bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the western mountains by late afternoon. Precipitation coverage becomes widespread over the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and spreads out over the adjacent plains of my northwest forecast zones overnight. There is also a chance that an isolated storm or two could become borderline severe with large hail and strong winds during the early evening hours. Latest models suggests that the best location for any strong to severe storms will remain west of a line from western Hill County southwest through Great Falls to Butte. For Friday through Saturday, models in good agreement moving the upper trough over the Northern Rockies and transitioning to a positive tilt trough extending northeastward into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. During this time frame temperatures will fall below seasonal averages with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each period. mpj Saturday night through Thursday...An interesting divergence in model solutions for the long term as models continue to struggle with the progression of a low pressure disturbance transitioning from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest. GFS solution tries restart the progressive zonal flow and quickly propels the disturbance out of the area by Tuesday evening. The ECMWF and GEM both retrograde and deepen the low over the rocky mountains and allow for it to produce significantly more precipitation over the region through the bulk of the long term. There is some credence for the GFS solution as the ECMWF ensemble suite does also move the system out faster than the operation model, but still slower than the GFS. Have leaned towards the cooler and wetter solution of the ECMWF, however did reduce pops slightly below model solutions due to the lack of confidence. Regardless of the inconsistencies in the extreme long term, this weekend does look to be unsettled as all models continue to have diffluent flow and multiple impulses move across the area through Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to remain near or below seasonal averages through the extended. Suk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 75 46 69 42 / 10 30 30 30 CTB 71 45 63 40 / 10 60 50 30 HLN 80 49 71 43 / 20 30 30 30 BZN 79 44 71 40 / 10 20 60 60 WEY 73 37 65 30 / 10 10 40 40 DLN 79 45 68 39 / 20 20 50 50 HVR 74 46 72 43 / 10 40 40 30 LWT 69 44 67 40 / 10 20 40 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1204 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 CLEARING IS IN PROGRESS...BUT AS THE WRF GOES-R SIMULATED FOG PRODUCT SUGGESTED...MVFR STRATUS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS N-CNTRL NEB AND WAS DROPPING S INTO THE FCST AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE THIS MORNING /15Z-16Z/. AFTER VIEWING THE WRF GOES-R SIMULATED IR IMAGERY... THE SKY FCST WAS LEFT AS IS FROM 400 AM. W OF HWY 281 WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF 10K FT ALTOCU AND PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS. M/SUNNY SHOULD DO JUST FINE. .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 ...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING... ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE FCST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY DIED OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE DRY. WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS. TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE. THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W. THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT. INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH. POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED. GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI- CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES. THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD. PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS. PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 PER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY CONTAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE (IF NOT HIGHER CHANCES) OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE TWO MAIN POINTS THAT NEED TO BE MADE RIGHT OFF THE TOP: FIRST OF ALL...BY FAR AND AWAY THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. ALONG THESE LINES...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA TO PART OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS DAY 3 OUTLOOK TECHNICALLY ONLY HIGHLIGHTS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...THIS FORECASTER IS OF THE OPINION THAT ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD CONSIDER ITSELF TO BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SLIGHT RISK EXPANDED IN AREA AS IT GETS INTO THE DAY 2 AND EVENTUALLY DAY 1 TIME FRAME. THE SECOND MAIN POINT TO EMPHASIZE FOR THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ESPECIALLY BY THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND THE PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS DURING THESE FINAL 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE. GIVEN THIS INHERENT UNCERTAINTY...MOST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME PERIODS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20S-30S...AND ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MODESTLY HIGHER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...HAVE TRIMMED OUT THE MENTION OF 50 POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURE WISE...MADE FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S ON MOST DAYS. HOWEVER...PROBABLY THE MOST CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS SATURDAY...WHICH ALSO HAS A CHANCE AT BEING THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST NUDGED UP HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES...GETTING MORE OF THE CWA INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S SOUTHWEST...THERE COULD EASILY BE ROOM FOR FUTURE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS...AS SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE CWA COULD FLIRT WITH LOW-90S...WITH SOUTHWEST AREAS POTENTIALLY EVEN UPPER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MOST NIGHTS ARE AIMED IN THE SEASONABLY-TYPICAL UPPER 50S-MID 60S RANGE...SO NOT FORESEEING ANY BIG SURPRISES HERE. AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED POTENTIAL HAZARDS...ITS BEEN AWHILE SINCE FORECAST SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE REALLY COME CLOSE TO SOLIDLY APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH. AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT ADVERTISE ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS...ITS AT LEAST LOOKING LIKE MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA COULD APPROACH IT ON SATURDAY. ON BOTH DAYS...THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GETTING INTO A BIT MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR BLOCKS... FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AND IN RESPONSE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 20 MPH IN EASTERN ZONES AND MORE SO 25-30 MPH IN THE WEST (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT...QUESTIONS ABOUT SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL ARISE...AS SOME MODELS ARE BONE DRY WHILE OTHERS GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE AXIS OF A VERY STRONG 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENT BY 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY...OPTED TO STAY THE COURSE AND LEAVE THE EVENING PERIOD VOID OF POPS...WHILE BLANKETING MOST OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...A ROGUE STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND ITS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE ROBUST EVENING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CWA TRIES TO SURVIVE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED OFF THE TOP THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD LIKELY COMMANDS THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST ATTENTION FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. COMPARED TO THE SEVERE EVENT THAT JUST OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY SETUP LOOKS TO BE MORE POTENT WITH A GREATER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS ARE LIKELY OVER-DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE DEPARTING FRI NIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CAPPED AS THE POTENT MID/UPPER WAVE SLIDES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AM EXPECTING RATHER VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY LIKELY TIED TO A FAIRLY NARROW ZONE ALONG THE INVADING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY RIPE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A WIND THREAT POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A NOTABLE TORNADO THREAT...CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THIS POSSIBILITY EITHER ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE THE LONGEST. HYDRO- WISE...COULD EASILY SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA RECEIVING A QUICK 1- 2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...BUT FORTUNATELY A GENERALLY DRY 48 HOURS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE ANY MORE THAN LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE MOST PART. POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ARE STILL IN THE LIKELY 60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN SOME AREAS. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IN REALITY THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY DRY/STORM-FREE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT POP IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING JUST IN CASE A LITTLE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY STILL LINGERS...AND HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE PRIMARY MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS START TO INCREASINGLY DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF GENERALLY KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOCAL FLOW MORE QUASI-ZONAL WITH VARIOUS PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY IS FAR TOO HIGH TO EVEN PINPOINT A TIME FRAME WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE. POPS ARE LARGELY A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AND FOR NOW THE HIGHEST 40 POPS ARE FOCUSED ON MONDAY DAYTIME BUT ITS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT WAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND EVEN SURFACE PATTERNS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS GET INCREDIBLY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A VERY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES...WHILE THE GFS IS COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS ARE GENERALLY AGREEING ON DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH LOW-END 20- 30 POPS UNTIL THINGS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 ...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING... ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE FCST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY DIED OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE DRY. WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS. TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE. THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W. THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT. INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH. POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED. GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI- CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES. THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD. PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS. PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 PER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY CONTAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE (IF NOT HIGHER CHANCES) OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE TWO MAIN POINTS THAT NEED TO BE MADE RIGHT OFF THE TOP: FIRST OF ALL...BY FAR AND AWAY THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. ALONG THESE LINES...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA TO PART OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS DAY 3 OUTLOOK TECHNICALLY ONLY HIGHLIGHTS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...THIS FORECASTER IS OF THE OPINION THAT ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD CONSIDER ITSELF TO BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SLIGHT RISK EXPANDED IN AREA AS IT GETS INTO THE DAY 2 AND EVENTUALLY DAY 1 TIME FRAME. THE SECOND MAIN POINT TO EMPHASIZE FOR THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ESPECIALLY BY THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND THE PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS DURING THESE FINAL 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE. GIVEN THIS INHERENT UNCERTAINTY...MOST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME PERIODS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20S-30S...AND ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MODESTLY HIGHER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...HAVE TRIMMED OUT THE MENTION OF 50 POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURE WISE...MADE FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S ON MOST DAYS. HOWEVER...PROBABLY THE MOST CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS SATURDAY...WHICH ALSO HAS A CHANCE AT BEING THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST NUDGED UP HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES...GETTING MORE OF THE CWA INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S SOUTHWEST...THERE COULD EASILY BE ROOM FOR FUTURE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS...AS SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE CWA COULD FLIRT WITH LOW-90S...WITH SOUTHWEST AREAS POTENTIALLY EVEN UPPER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MOST NIGHTS ARE AIMED IN THE SEASONABLY-TYPICAL UPPER 50S-MID 60S RANGE...SO NOT FORESEEING ANY BIG SURPRISES HERE. AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED POTENTIAL HAZARDS...ITS BEEN AWHILE SINCE FORECAST SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE REALLY COME CLOSE TO SOLIDLY APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH. AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT ADVERTISE ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS...ITS AT LEAST LOOKING LIKE MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA COULD APPROACH IT ON SATURDAY. ON BOTH DAYS...THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GETTING INTO A BIT MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR BLOCKS... FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AND IN RESPONSE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 20 MPH IN EASTERN ZONES AND MORE SO 25-30 MPH IN THE WEST (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT...QUESTIONS ABOUT SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL ARISE...AS SOME MODELS ARE BONE DRY WHILE OTHERS GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE AXIS OF A VERY STRONG 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENT BY 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY...OPTED TO STAY THE COURSE AND LEAVE THE EVENING PERIOD VOID OF POPS...WHILE BLANKETING MOST OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...A ROGUE STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND ITS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE ROBUST EVENING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CWA TRIES TO SURVIVE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED OFF THE TOP THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD LIKELY COMMANDS THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST ATTENTION FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. COMPARED TO THE SEVERE EVENT THAT JUST OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY SETUP LOOKS TO BE MORE POTENT WITH A GREATER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS ARE LIKELY OVER-DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE DEPARTING FRI NIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CAPPED AS THE POTENT MID/UPPER WAVE SLIDES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AM EXPECTING RATHER VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY LIKELY TIED TO A FAIRLY NARROW ZONE ALONG THE INVADING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY RIPE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A WIND THREAT POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A NOTABLE TORNADO THREAT...CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THIS POSSIBILITY EITHER ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE THE LONGEST. HYDRO- WISE...COULD EASILY SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA RECEIVING A QUICK 1- 2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...BUT FORTUNATELY A GENERALLY DRY 48 HOURS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE ANY MORE THAN LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE MOST PART. POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ARE STILL IN THE LIKELY 60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN SOME AREAS. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IN REALITY THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY DRY/STORM-FREE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT POP IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING JUST IN CASE A LITTLE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY STILL LINGERS...AND HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE PRIMARY MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS START TO INCREASINGLY DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF GENERALLY KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOCAL FLOW MORE QUASI-ZONAL WITH VARIOUS PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY IS FAR TOO HIGH TO EVEN PINPOINT A TIME FRAME WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE. POPS ARE LARGELY A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AND FOR NOW THE HIGHEST 40 POPS ARE FOCUSED ON MONDAY DAYTIME BUT ITS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT WAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND EVEN SURFACE PATTERNS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS GET INCREDIBLY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A VERY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES...WHILE THE GFS IS COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS ARE GENERALLY AGREEING ON DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH LOW-END 20- 30 POPS UNTIL THINGS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OCCASIONAL CLOUDS NEAR 4000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY STARTING AROUND 14Z. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 14KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 19KTS...TO START THE TAF PERIOD...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 RECENT RAINFALL: AS ANTICIPATED LAST EVENINGS STORMS DEVELOPED PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF BENEFICIAL RAIN WAS NARROW AND STRETCHED ACROSS ROOKS-OSBORNE- JEWELL COUNTIES. LOOKING AT ESTIMATED RAINFALL FOR THE PAST 4 WEEKS...THE AREA FROM THE TRI-CITIES SE TO HEBRON AND NE TO COLUMBUS HAS SEEN A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES. THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/ HAS SEEN A 2-6 INCH SURPLUS OR 125-200% OF NORMAL. UPSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2 WKS HAS BEEN 200-600% OF NORMAL. THAT HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE PLATTE RVR SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. THE FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR WRN DAWSON COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING AROUND GOTHENBURG. FCSTS INDICATE THAT BOTH THE N AND S BRANCHES AT COZAD WILL APPROACH OR WERE ALREADY NEAR ACTION STAGE. KEARNEY IS FCST TO CREST JUST SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND AND WE ISSUED AN ESF /HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ AT 1109 PM LAST EVENING FOR THIS. GRAND ISLAND IS FCST TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE PLATTE RVR SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS VIA THE RIVER&LAKES LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF OUR WEBPAGE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH AVIATION...BRYANT HYDROLOGY...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
930 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS TODAY. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. COMBINED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WILL CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. && .UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWED A PATCH OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA. BOTH NAM AND RAP FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING AND THEN DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES CLOSER AND SCOURS OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. && PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 302 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]... THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ON TRACK. NEW COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN RIGHT IN LINE LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY AS FORECAST WINDS APPROACH CRITERIA IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT FOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. OTHER THAN THE WIND...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE WEEKEND PROMISES TO BE VERY NICE. ONE SIDE BENEFIT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IS THAT OUR TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO. .LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]... A TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. THE EC MOS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS MOS IN TEMPS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THIS NEW AGREEMENT BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS THE GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST CONSIDERING THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE EC ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE ON LIGHTER SIDE SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND GEM FORECAST A LOW DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES AND THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS, SIMILAR TO 24 HRS, UNDERPLAYS THIS FEATURE AND ESSENTIALLY TAKES IT EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. THE GFS ALSO HAS A WEAK EASTERN PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THAT THE EC/GEM DO NOT SHOW. THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MOS HAS A TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 19 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS FOR TUESDAY INDICATING EITHER A POTENT TROUGH OR A STRONG RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS LOW AT THIS POINT AND NON-EXISTENT REGARDING ANY DETAILS. && .FIRE WEATHER... RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER...WE STRUGGLED WITH IDEA OF EXPANDING THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST DESERTS AND PLATEAU (AZZ102) FOR TODAY. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE GOING TO FLIRT WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR ABOUT A 4-5 HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT CRITERIA LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SPORADIC AND MORE ISOLATED WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AND MAKE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TRICKY FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND WHETHER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WIND KICK IN TO OVERPOWER THEM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FORECAST TODAY. BUT WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT FAVOR CONFIGURATION 4 IN THE TAF FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND STRENGTHEN MORE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WITH SIGNIFICANT CROSSWINDS AT SOME TERMINALS ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ460>464. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR NVZ460>466. AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ101-102. CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ226. && $$ UPDATE...STUMPF PREV DISCUSSION...LERICOS/SALMEN FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AFTER THE MAIN FRONT PASSES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DRY AND FAIR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A NOTABLE WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 130 PM UPDATE... RADARS BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP THIS AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVANCE OVER THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBS ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING SPC MESOANALYSIS NOW SUGGESTING WARM FRONT IS STRETCHED IN A NORTH-SOUTH FASHION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. AS RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THUNDER MENTION EAST OF I-81 AS THIS AREA REMAINS VERY STABLE PER LATEST MLCAPE ANALYSIS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. 1010 AM UPDATE... SO FAR THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS ONLY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BGM FCST AREA. MAIN CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON REMAIN FOCUSED ON LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. RIGHT NOW...MAIN THING GOING AGAINST ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT SAID...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC WARM FRONT THAT REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF TO OUR WEST WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A NUMEROUS SHWR MENTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE FCST MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. AT 400 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DECREASE. THROUGH TONIGHT, A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM 1.50-1.80 INCHES ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER AROUND 10K FT. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED ACTIVITY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN NUMEROUS THROUGH EVENING. DUE TO CONTINUED E/SE COOL/STABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW CAPE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION BUT EVEN HERE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. WILL MENTION SCATTERED TRW WEST OF I81 AND ISOLATED EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER WITH UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ON FRIDAY, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW OVER NRN MINNESOTA WILL DROP THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES AND PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN JUICY UNTIL FROPA SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CAPE VALUES ARE BETTER GENERALLY 400-800 J/KG BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TALL/SKINNY CAPE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH NON IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR VALES AND MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATES LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO FOR MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN PTN OF CWA FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR. MAXES ON SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN VCNTY RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 700 AM EDT UPDATE... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.... PREVIOUS FORECAST... FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS WELL-ENTRENCHED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY EARLY WEEK AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TRACKING EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS FEATURE REMAINS STALLED TO OUR NORTH. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...STRONG WARM ADVECTION EARLY WEEK SHOULD ALLOW LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS STALLED FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z THU UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA- WIDE THIS AFTN AND EVE...AS SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS ROLL THROUGH THE RGN. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CAT...BUT IFR CIG BASES ARE PLAUSIBLE AT KBGM/KITH. SINCE THUNDER SEEMS RATHER ISOLD ATTM...WE`RE INCLINED TO LEAVE THIS MENTION OUT OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS. TSRA CAN ALWAYS BE ADDED ON AN INDIVIDUAL BASIS...AS NEEDED. LTR TNT INTO EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD LWR CIGS ARE FORESEEN ONCE AGN...SIMILAR TO THE LAST SVRL OVERNIGHTS/EARLY MRNGS. IFR CIG BASES ARE QUITE PLAUSIBLE AT THE MORE ELEVATED SITES (KBGM/KITH)...WITH MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE. SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI...AHD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE EXPECTED AGN. GUSTY S TO SE SFC WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE (AS MUCH AS 20-25 KT)...WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT AND FRI MRNG (MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS). OUTLOOK... SAT THROUGH TUE... VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN MRNG FOG ARE PSBL AT KELM SUN AND MON. SOME RESTRICTIVE CONDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS MON NGT AND TUE. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CMG NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM SHORT TERM...CMG LONG TERM...CMG/KAH AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
144 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AFTER THE MAIN FRONT PASSES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DRY AND FAIR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A NOTABLE WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 130 PM UPDATE... RADARS BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP THIS AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVANCE OVER THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBS ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING SPC MESOANALYSIS NOW SUGGESTING WARM FRONT IS STRETCHED IN A NORTH-SOUTH FASHION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. AS RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THUNDER MENTION EAST OF I-81 AS THIS AREA REMAINS VERY STABLE PER LATEST MLCAPE ANALYSIS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. 1010 AM UPDATE... SO FAR THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS ONLY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BGM FCST AREA. MAIN CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON REMAIN FOCUSED ON LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. RIGHT NOW...MAIN THING GOING AGAINST ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT SAID...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC WARM FRONT THAT REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF TO OUR WEST WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A NUMEROUS SHWR MENTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE FCST MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. AT 400 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DECREASE. THROUGH TONIGHT, A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM 1.50-1.80 INCHES ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER AROUND 10K FT. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED ACTIVITY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN NUMEROUS THROUGH EVENING. DUE TO CONTINUED E/SE COOL/STABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW CAPE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION BUT EVEN HERE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. WILL MENTION SCATTERED TRW WEST OF I81 AND ISOLATED EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER WITH UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ON FRIDAY, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW OVER NRN MINNESOTA WILL DROP THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES AND PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN JUICY UNTIL FROPA SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CAPE VALUES ARE BETTER GENERALLY 400-800 J/KG BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TALL/SKINNY CAPE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH NON IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR VALES AND MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATES LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO FOR MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN PTN OF CWA FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR. MAXES ON SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN VCNTY RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 700 AM EDT UPDATE... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.... PREVIOUS FORECAST... FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS WELL-ENTRENCHED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY EARLY WEEK AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TRACKING EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS FEATURE REMAINS STALLED TO OUR NORTH. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...STRONG WARM ADVECTION EARLY WEEK SHOULD ALLOW LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS STALLED FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z THU UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA- WIDE THIS AFTN AND EVE...AS SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS ROLL THROUGH THE RGN. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CAT...BUT IFR CIG BASES ARE PLAUSIBLE AT KBGM/KITH. SINCE THUNDER SEEMS RATHER ISOLD ATTM...WE`RE INCLINED TO LEAVE THIS MENTION OUT OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS. TSRA CAN ALWAYS BE ADDED ON AN INDIVIDUAL BASIS...AS NEEDED. LTR TNT INTO EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD LWR CIGS ARE FORESEEN ONCE AGN...SIMILAR TO THE LAST SVRL OVERNIGHTS/EARLY MRNGS. IFR CIG BASES ARE QUITE PLAUSIBLE AT THE MORE ELEVATED SITES (KBGM/KITH)...WITH MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE. SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AGN FRI...AHD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE EXPECTED AGN. GUSTY S TO SE SFC WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE (AS MUCH AS 20-25 KT)...WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT AND FRI MRNG (MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS). OUTLOOK... SAT THROUGH TUE... VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN MRNG FOG ARE PSBL AT KELM SUN AND MON. SOME RESTRICTIVE CONDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS MON NGT AND TUE. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CMG NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM SHORT TERM...CMG LONG TERM...CMG/KAH AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY... MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WITH OBSERVED PW OVER 2 INCHES AND LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH AROUND 10K FT. WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING AND LIFTING...WITH BETTER EARLY HEATING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE COINCIDENT WITH THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE IS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ALREADY...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING TO TRAIN FROM WILSON NORTH TOWARD ROANOKE RAPIDS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS MLCAPE RISES TOWARD 1000 J/KG WITHOUT ANY CINH. YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WAS HEAVIEST NORTH OF HWY 64...AND THOSE AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TODAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. EARLY ON THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER/SLOW DESTABILIZATION...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR OVER UPSTATE SC THAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE DCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT BACK TOWARD THE KCLT/KGSP AREA AFTER 18Z...SO THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE APPROACHING THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WILL BE ADJUSTING LIKELY POPS TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE EAST THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. HIGHS MOSTLY 83-88. -BLS PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4-1.7 INCHES (HIGHEST ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE BEST DPVA IS PROGGED TO ALSO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...WITH MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA...IN ADDITION TO THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY... A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE/MCV ORIGINATING FROM THE DEVELOPING MCS OVER ARKLATEX ATTM WILL ADVANCE ESEWD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/DEEP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CORRALLED BY THE EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION INITIALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT WITH MORE EQUITABLE...DIURNAL CONVECTION AREA-WIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A RISE FROM NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY... SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN...NOW EAST OF KRWI...WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MARGINALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER UP STATE SC ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND MAY ENCROACH UPON KINT/KGSO BY 21Z. IT REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE...BUT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST...THE VERY MOISTURE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MAY REACH VICINITY OF KFAY/KRDU AND KRWI THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPEPR DISTURBANCE...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL THEN BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH SEEMS MOST LIKE FROM KRDU TO KRWI BASED ON RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRD/MWS NEAR TERM...KRD/BLS SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
252 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .DISCUSSION... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STILL LINGERS ACROSS FAR SE OK WITH DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ECNTRL OK. HAVE NOTED ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW OF THESE WILL BECOME STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION...WITH STORMS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. SFC RIDGE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH RATHER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS RETURNING AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST. SWLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATER THIS WEEKEND...WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. ECMWF/GFS SIMILAR IN SWINGING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO PLAINS...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN N OF INTERSTATE 40. ECMWF/GFS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE UPPER LOW MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...THUS MAINTAINING MORE RIDGING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM FOR NOW AND KEPT THE MID/LATE WEEK DRY AND WARM FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 59 82 62 88 / 10 0 0 10 FSM 62 84 61 87 / 20 0 0 10 MLC 61 83 64 87 / 20 0 0 10 BVO 55 81 59 87 / 10 0 0 10 FYV 55 78 55 83 / 10 0 0 10 BYV 56 77 54 83 / 20 0 0 10 MKO 59 82 61 87 / 10 0 0 10 MIO 55 79 59 86 / 10 0 0 10 F10 59 82 64 87 / 10 0 0 10 HHW 64 85 64 88 / 30 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1221 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION... ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NVA WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT THEN AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE 10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME. THE ACTIVITY DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY AND CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR LEVELS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ DISCUSSION... TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF MIDDLE TN TODAY AND WILL BE REPLACE WITH A WEAK SHORT TERM RIDGE. A DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE THE TREND. BUT...ELEVATED MOISTURE STILL EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE CONTINUATION OF SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WE CONTINUE TO WARM. HRRR SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT FOR OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS BY 1 PM OR SO. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL REACH 1000-1500 J/KG. FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE PLATEAU FROM 20 PERCENT TO 30 PERCENT. OTW...TEMPS ALREADY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. BNA IS OUTRUNNING LATEST GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES. WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. SKY CONDITION LOOKS OK...SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR TODAY. UPDATE COMING OUT SHORTLY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ MESOSCALE UPDATE... COLD POCKET AT 500 MBAR HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DOWN INTERSTATE 24 TOWARDS CHATTANOOGA. MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PLATEAU AS COLD POCKET EXTENDS UP INTO THAT AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. COLD POCKET ASSOCATED WITH UPPER TROUGH THATS BEEN A SLOW MOVER LAST SEVERAL HOURS. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 ...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT... .DISCUSSION... THIS FORECAST UPDATE FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST VIS SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM BASICALLY JASPER TX TO STEPHENVILLE TX THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER TX SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP STRONG INSTABILITY TO ITSELF AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. SPC RAP MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALSO PUSHING OVER THE REGION. ALSO MAY SEE AN AREA OF ENHANCED JET STREAM WINDS OVER THIS REGION AS WELL. THIS SHOULD FURTHER HELP SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF TX. MESO MODELS OF HRRR/WRF-ARW/NMM AND WRF RUN BY TX TECH ALL SHOW A LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO SE TX AROUND 01-04Z THIS EVENING. THE 12Z NAM ALSO HINTS AT THIS WITH THE OTHER SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING HIGH QPF OVER C TX INTO SE TX INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION. GIVEN ALL THIS AGREEMENT ADDED 70 POPS TO THE FORECAST WITH MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TONIGHT. LIKE TIMING OF REACHING NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 00Z-04Z AND THEN HOUSTON AREA AROUND 03Z-07Z. DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES...SQUALL LINE COULD BE SLOWER IF IT TAKES MORE TIME TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH THE SQUALL LINE. WRF-ARW REALLY SHOWS THIS STRUCTURE WELL AT 03Z TONIGHT. THINK DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN. SHOULD BOW ECHOES FORM...HIGHER CHANCE FOR WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW SQUALL LINE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE HOUSTON AREA SO IMPACTS MAY BE LESS FARTHER SOUTH THAN BRAZOS VALLEY INTO EAST TEXAS. STILL LOW CHANCES OF THE LINE MAKING IT TO THE COAST BUT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF COLD POOL AND CAP WEAKENING. AS SUCH HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS FOR TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE COAST SOUTH OF I-10. FRIDAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY ROTATE THROUGH WITH A BACK DOOR FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. GFS/NAM/ECMWF HINT AT SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH PASSING TROUGH AXIS. KEPT SOME 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE COULD HAVE REALLY WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH RECOVERY. GFS DOES HINT AT PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8-2.0 INCHES SO WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TOMORROW...COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW BUT AGAIN COULD SEE A WIND THREAT WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WHEN LOOKING AT GFS/ECMWF DATA FOR THE EXTENDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL SAT BUT COULD GET SOME ISO ACTIVITY SUN/MON. REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUESTIONABLE AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND ANY LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE. SUPPOSE THAT SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP TO SUPPORT A STORM OR TWO BUT TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT MESOSCALE FORECAST DETAILS. 39 && .AVIATION... KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS IN FOR THIS AFTN FOR SOME SITES AS ANOTHER LINE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER SHORT-TERM MODELS STILL GOING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN FOR TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES A- CROSS THE AREA TO THE EAST. 41 && .MARINE... ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING A SLOW UPTICK WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT (IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW OUT WEST). AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST FRIDAY...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY/BRIEFLY THRU SAT. GRADIENT EXPECTED TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN LATE SAT WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 91 74 91 74 / 70 30 20 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 75 91 74 91 74 / 50 30 20 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 79 88 79 88 79 / 30 30 10 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...39 AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .DISCUSSION... UPDATE ON SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE MESOSCALE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL THAT WAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A RECOVERY OF THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE CWA...HOWEVER AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA STILL INDICATES THAT LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS STILL OCCURRING. THIS SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING A BIT BASED ON LATEST RADAR DATA WHICH HAS SHOWN A GENERAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO. ANALYSIS OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS POSITIONED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR BRECKENRIDGE TO JUST NORTH OF WACO AND EAST TO PALESTINE. IT APPEARS TO BE RETREATING AS A WEAK WARM FRONT WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF WACO TOWARD PALESTINE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATES 2500-4000J/KG OF INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH WEAKENING INHIBITION. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE SPREADING INTO WEST TEXAS WHICH WILL SPREAD LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATOP THIS HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. ALL OF THIS BODES WELL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FROM COMANCHE TO WACO SOUTH TO CAMERON. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT...SOME TO BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES NEAR THE BOUNDARY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISCRETE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WITH THE HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL AND MAY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE SUPERCELLULAR CLUSTERS LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT HEADS SOUTH...BECOMING A MORE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FOR THIS EVENING...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. FARTHER NORTH...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. WHILE THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE MAIN THREAT NORTH OF THE RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURGE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS EVENING COULD ACT AS AN EFFECTIVE FRONT SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH RIDGING NOSING IN AT 500MB. WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL STORM. THROUGH THE EXTENDED...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE FORECAST DRY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. WARM MORNINGS AND HUMID AFTERNOONS APPEAR LIKELY AND THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR MORE OF THESE COULD BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DUNN && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1228 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ CLEARING TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO STORMS IN THE METROPLEX. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STORM THREAT SHOULD REDUCED CONSIDERABLY. AT WACO...SKIES ARE CLEARING AND THEY HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE 80S. HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON TSRA THERE AS WELL...JUST A BIT LATER THAN METROPLEX. TAFS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF FRONT...SINCE WINDS CAN SHIFT WITH EACH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVES ACROSS. TSRA COVERAGE IN METROPLEX ALSO PROBLEMATIC. HRRR MAY NOT BE CATCHING THE CLEARING TO THE NW AND IT HAS FEW STORMS IN LATEST RUN.TTU WRF DID NOT CATCH THE OUTFLOW THIS MORNING AND LIKELY HAS TOO MANY STORMS. 84 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 70 89 72 92 74 / 20 10 10 10 10 WACO, TX 70 89 71 92 73 / 60 20 10 10 10 PARIS, TX 65 85 66 87 70 / 20 5 10 10 10 DENTON, TX 66 87 70 92 72 / 20 5 10 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 66 86 70 89 73 / 20 5 10 10 10 DALLAS, TX 70 88 72 91 73 / 20 10 10 10 10 TERRELL, TX 71 87 71 89 75 / 20 10 10 10 10 CORSICANA, TX 70 89 71 90 73 / 40 10 10 10 10 TEMPLE, TX 72 89 72 93 72 / 60 20 10 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 69 88 71 92 71 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .AVIATION... CLEARING TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO STORMS IN THE METROPLEX. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STORM THREAT SHOULD REDUCED CONSIDERABLY. AT WACO...SKIES ARE CLEARING AND THEY HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE 80S. HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON TSRA THERE AS WELL...JUST A BIT LATER THAN METROPLEX. TAFS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF FRONT...SINCE WINDS CAN SHIFT WITH EACH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVES ACROSS. TSRA COVERAGE IN METROPLEX ALSO PROBLEMATIC. HRRR MAY NOT BE CATCHING THE CLEARING TO THE NW AND IT HAS FEW STORMS IN LATEST RUN.TTU WRF DID NOT CATCH THE OUTFLOW THIS MORNING AND LIKELY HAS TOO MANY STORMS. 84 && .UPDATE... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR GATESVILLE TO WACO TO ATHENS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE A MAJOR PLAYER CONCERNING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND WINDS ARE NORTHEAST. THIS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATES SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEATING AND WIND RECOVERY FOR ANY CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS ACTUALLY STILL ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WILL HEAD SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY HANDLES THIS WELL...IT HAS DONE A POOR JOB MODELING THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON... SINCE THE GUIDANCE DOESNT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MESOSCALE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LOCATION OF BOTH THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR OZONA WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA BENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE MAIN TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH LATER TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IT COULD BEHAVE MORE LIKE A WARM FRONT GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS BECOMES IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ARE RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED FROM MORNING CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BACKED MORE THAN INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000 J/KG WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 45KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO CONCUR WITH THIS AND ACTUALLY INDICATES WHAT APPEARS TO BE DISCRETE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPDATE WILL ADJUST POPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN RAISE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO UPDATE GRAPHICS ON THE WEB FOR THE LATEST THINKING. DUNN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/ A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIZABLE AREA OF STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AND JUNE SUNSHINE HELPS PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 3 AM CDT...WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR DANGEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP IN THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A NEARLY EAST-WEST LINEAR SYSTEM BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AND DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL UNTIL THEY EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POPS TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL FOCUS GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS. A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD TO STRONG TO EXTREME LEVELS...ALSO ARGUES FOR LOWER POPS WEST AND HIGHER POPS EAST TODAY. THE CAP WILL BE STRONGEST IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...THE CAP IS WEAKER AND THE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER. THESE FACTORS JUSTIFY THE LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL END FRIDAY MORNING AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND MUGGY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY AFFECT TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. 09 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 71 87 72 92 / 40 50 10 5 10 WACO, TX 91 71 89 72 91 / 60 60 10 10 10 PARIS, TX 84 67 84 67 88 / 60 60 10 5 5 DENTON, TX 88 68 86 70 91 / 50 50 10 5 10 MCKINNEY, TX 87 66 86 68 89 / 50 50 10 5 10 DALLAS, TX 90 71 87 72 91 / 40 50 10 5 10 TERRELL, TX 86 69 87 69 90 / 50 60 10 5 10 CORSICANA, TX 90 71 88 71 90 / 60 60 10 5 10 TEMPLE, TX 91 71 89 71 91 / 60 60 10 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 68 86 70 93 / 40 40 5 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
350 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. && .SHORT TERM... SHOWERS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE FAR SOUTHWEST WA COAST. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES BUT DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT RISK OF TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A RANDOM STRIKE OR TWO. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STRONG TSTM THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND WILL BE OVER EASTERN WA BY SUNRISE FRI. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE CASCADES COULD HAVE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2.3 INCHES /BELOW THE HIGHEST PEAKS/ DURING THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 5 PM PDT FRI. A FEW LOWLAND INTERIOR SITES COULD RECEIVE NEAR AN INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. LOOK FOR THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FRI AFTERNOON AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI EVENING. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. THE SURFACE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY AND WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT... CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WITHIN THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/. FRI WILL ALSO BE A RATHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST TO AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE MODELS SEEMED TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF ON SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL SERVE TO KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS UNSETTLED AND DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM... BEYOND SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINED LOW DUE TO CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT AND LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE CHOSEN TO MAKE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INHERITED FORECAST. && .AVIATION...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE S WA/OREGON BORDER WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE INTERIOR PAC NW TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BECOMING MOIST AT ALL LEVELS AND UNSTABLE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE LIKELY THE NEXT 36 HOURS BUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THIS COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR AND AMEND AS NEEDED DURING THIS UNSTABLE PERIOD. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT MVFR AND LOCAL IFR DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY AND PERSISTENT. KSEA...SHOWERS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AT AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS ROUGHLY A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN TAF AND MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY TODAY. && .MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WESTERLY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL/E STRAIT THIS EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF WA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY BEHIND THE LOW. WINDS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS LIMITED TO 30 KT THIS EVENING IN THE CENTRAL/E STRAIT. MODELS SHOW A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH FRIDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE GALES SO A WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/E STRAIT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT WINDS COULD DEVELOP OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE WA COAST AND INTERIOR WATERS ON FRIDAY AS WELL. DTM && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 11 AM FRI FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRI MORNING THROUGH FRI EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 252 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure system will track into the region this evening bringing a good chance of thunderstorms some of which could be strong with gusty winds and large hail. The low will remain over the region through the weekend resulting in cool and unsettled weather conditions. High pressure will return into the region on Tuesday and bring drying conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight...Strong upper level low continues to slowly meander toward the Washington coast as of 2pm with strong upper level difluence noted ahead of it. This difluence is associated with strong upper level southwesterly jet which extended from the SW corner of Oregon and into SE Washington. Meanwhile the offshore trough will take on a slightly negative tilt as a shortwave rounds the base. These mechanisms will provide the lift necessary for thunderstorms...while the instability is already present. Thus far the greatest potential instability was located near the Cascades where MUCAPE values have surged into 1000-1500 j/kg range with little if any inhibition. Thunderstorms have been growing in number but thus far have been restricted to the western portions of Chelan and Okanogan counties. 0-6 km shear values in these areas range from 25-35 kts which isn`t terrific but could be sufficient for an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm with the main threat being moderate sized hail. An area of greater concern lies over the SE corner of Washington and the southern half of the Idaho Panhandle. This location has a much more profound instability axis as well as shear values topping out between 50-60 kts. Convection has already begun to grow over the NE corner of Oregon and should drift into SE Washington and the Panhandle during the early evening as the low moves inland. The HRRR has consistently forecast this feature to track through the SE corner of our CWA so confidence is growing. Whether or not the thunderstorms in this area become severe isn`t a certainty...but the max composite reflectivity product has consistently depicted a bow-like structure which would be conducive for strong winds. The threat for any strong/severe storms should be minimal after the late evening hours as we lose any impacts from surface heating. As the low tracks east of the Cascades during the evening...we will see an intrusion of drier air move into the southern Cascades and into the Columbia Basin behind a cold front. This should also put an end to the convective chances in these locations...with the possibility of this moving as far east as the Spokane area and Washington Palouse. For the overnight hours...we should see most of the precipitation chances focused around the northern and eastern periphery of the upper level low. This generally encompasses the western Cascades through the northern Washington mountains and into the northern Idaho Panhandle. Potential instability numbers suggest lightning could still be possible from the Okanogan Highlands to the northern tip of the Panhandle. fx Friday and Friday night: The cold upper level low pressure system will pass over SE WA and over the Central Panhandle during the day. This is where the coldest temps aloft and the steepest mid level lapse rates will reside. As such, the southeastern portion of the forecast area will see the best chance for thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. We will also be dealing with some wrap around moisture rotating in over the Northern Panhandle and across much of the western half of the forecast area. Showers will also develop along this TROWAL (TRough Of Warm Air Aloft) like feature through this period as well. This will result in plenty of cloud cover and higher than average precip chances across the region. In fact, most areas will see a good chance for some rain either in the afternoon or overnight on Friday as the TROWAL shifts eastward with time along the backside of the low. Cloudy skies under the low on Friday will result in dramatically lower temps compared to this afternoon. Expect high temps only to get up into the 60s for most locations in the afternoon. Saturday through Sunday evening: The flow pattern over the region will transition to out of the northwest as the low exits the area. Showers will linger primarily across the eastern third of the forecast area on Saturday. Temperatures will rebound closer to normal Saturday afternoon. The next weather feature of note will be a cold front passage on Sunday. There is some uncertainty with the strength and moisture content with this wave. The latest 18Z NAM just came in with Pwats up around 0.80 inches compared to just 0.50 to 0.60 inches off of the 12Z GFS run. The current forecast is more reflective of the drier GFS with the best chances of showers across the northern mtns. If subsequent model runs continue to show a stronger and wetter wave like the newest NAM run, then the forecast will need to be adjusted wetter and have increased coverage further south and into the basin. Winds do not appear to be that much of a concern across the region with this front, but we will continue to see a fairly tight cross Cascade gradient. This will would keep winds breezy through the Cascade gaps and out into the western basin. /SVH Sunday night through Thursday: Big differences right off the bat for the latter portion of the extended forecast. While the GFS would maintain a northwest flow on Monday, and then build a weak ridge in for the middle of the week. This solution is also supported by others. On the other hand, other model solutions would argue for another more organized low pressure system moving right over top of the Inland Northwest, which would bring much cooler and unsettled conditions. With emphasis this shift on the shorter terms, this forecast will go with the status quo, which is more in line with the more consistent solutions. This will give slowly warming temperatures each day, with precipitation chances mainly confined to the higher elevations. ty && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: A vigorous low pressure system currently off the WA Coast will swing inland over the next 24 hours. This will trigger a chance of showers and thunderstorms for all forecast sites.Looks like the threat will begin near MWH and EAT between 21-00z and end quickly thereafter. For the other locations...we should see thunder develop over NE Oregon and quickly head into the LWS/PUW area. HRRR model shows the greatest threat will be between 00-06z. GEG/SFF/COE will be the last locations threatened. We have put the threat beginning around 00z...but based on model trends that may be too quick. Any storms which form could produce erratic wind gusts with speeds approaching 40 mph. The best chances for that would be for PUW/LWS. After 06z...the threat should wane for all locations with VFR conditions expected through remainder of forecast. fx && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 49 62 48 69 48 68 / 30 70 70 20 10 20 Coeur d`Alene 48 61 47 66 46 66 / 30 70 70 40 20 30 Pullman 46 60 45 66 44 66 / 50 70 70 30 10 20 Lewiston 54 67 51 75 51 73 / 50 70 70 30 10 20 Colville 50 63 48 71 48 67 / 60 80 80 30 20 30 Sandpoint 49 60 46 62 44 63 / 60 80 80 60 20 30 Kellogg 48 58 45 61 46 63 / 60 70 80 80 20 30 Moses Lake 53 71 51 78 52 77 / 20 50 30 0 0 10 Wenatchee 54 70 55 76 56 75 / 20 50 30 10 0 10 Omak 52 69 51 78 50 74 / 60 60 40 10 10 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
249 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR THE WASHINGTON OREGON BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED MID NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS AROUND 80 MILES OFF OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST BAND OF RAIN IS PUSHING ONSHORE AND JUST MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE LIGHTNING NETWORK HAS DETECTED SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FAR NORTH...ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND JUST NORTH OF WASHINGTON STATE...SUGGESTING THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW AS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM WHEN THE LOW...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT...MOVES OVER LAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING SHOWING SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVER THE CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THEN SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHEN THE CHANCE FOR TOWERING CUMULUS OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO SPROUT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGE IS PRODUCING GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HIGHER CASCADES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW DIGS SOUTH ACROSS NW OREGON. THEREFORE COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER...THROUGH SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES WILL RESULT IN DEEP MARINE SURGES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER...WEAKER SYSTEM MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS SUNDAY. HARTLEY .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS STILL VARY IN THE LONG TERM...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP MARINE LAYER SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD MONDAY AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES. HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE FAR NE PACIFIC. THE VARYING MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND WHETHER NW OREGON WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE OR THE LOW LATE NEXT WEEK. NONE OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...LEAVING TEMPERATURES AS THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE. HARTLEY && .AVIATION...FRONT MOVING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. EXPECT VFR CIGS WITH OCCASION MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED IFR CIG AND VIS IN HEAVY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z. ALONG THE COAST CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED SOME TO GIVE MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MORE SHOWERS TO RETURN AS THE SECONDARY FRONT MOVES IN ALONG THE COAST 22Z-01Z. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA AND GRADIENTS SHIFT WESTERLY EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND CONTINUED SHOWERS ALL AREAS AFT 06Z. SCHNEIDER KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS...40 PERCENT OF MVFR CIG IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM 22Z- 03Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 06Z. SCHNEIDER && .MARINE...1011MB SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF ASTORIA OREGON AT 22Z WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY INLAND THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT INLAND EARLY TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 03Z WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID EVENING WHEN THE SECONDARY FRONT PASSES THE COAST. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. SWELL BEING GENERATED FROM THIS LOW AS IT PASSED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BEGIN REACHING THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 FEET TOMORROW. HOWEVER WITH A STRONG TIDAL CYCLE THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WILL BE PRETTY ROUGH DURING THE EBBS. SCHNEIDER && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM PDT FRIDAY. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1213 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure system will track into the region this afternoon and evening bringing a good chance of thunderstorms some of which could be strong with gusty winds and large hail. The low will remain over the region through the weekend resulting in cool and unsettled weather conditions. High pressure will return into the region on Tuesday and bring drying conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of today...Strong upper level low continues to drift closer to the Washington coast as of 11am. Meanwhile a weak upper level front was delivering a blanket of high and mid level clouds to the eastern quarter of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. This latter feature should move out of the forecast area by early afternoon...which will bring a temporary clearing and likely a resulting destabiliztion of the atmosphere.This destabilization has already taken place in the Cascades and Okanogan Highlands and we were beginning to see some cumulus development. Nothing is deep enough for showers as of yet...but that will change as the low moves closer and gives the potentially unstable air mass a needed boost. The HRRR model has been rather insistent on developing showers and thunderstorms first near the Cascades...Waterville Plateau...and north Cascades by early afternoon. This threat will then spread north and east into the the remaining northern washington mountains and north Idaho Panhandle during the remainder of the afternoon as a shortwave disturbance moves in from the southwest. Model CAPE values are still rather impressive and suggest a small chance of strong thunderstorms especially for the Okanogan Highlands...Waterville Plateau...Okanogan Valley and perhaps the northern Cascades. The HRRR is really downplaying the threat south and west of these locations based on an incoming dry slot. That`s not to say a thunderstorm would be impossible over the Columbia Basin and Wenatchee area...but the odds are not terrific. These locations will see a much better chance of gusty winds to 25-30 mph and fairly dry relative humidity values. Farther to the east and south...the HRRR is consistently developing a big cluster of thunderstorms over NE Oregon and pushing those into the Blues...Lewiston...southern Palouse and southern Shoshone County after 4pm. Model stability indices and the large scale forcing of the approaching shortwave suggest this is the location which will be most prone to severe weather. The main threat will be the possibility of strong wind gusts and large hail. For the Spokane area...it looks like the threat of thunder could hold off until the mid to late evening. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: A vigorous low pressure system currently off the WA Coast will swing inland over the next 24 hours. This will trigger a chance of showers and thunderstorms for all forecast sites.Looks like the threat will begin near MWH and EAT between 21-00z and end quickly thereafter. For the other locations...we should see thunder develop over NE Oregon and quickly head into the LWS/PUW area. HRRR model shows the greatest threat will be between 00-06z. GEG/SFF/COE will be the last locations threatened. We have put the threat beginning around 00z...but based on model trends that may be too quick. Any storms which form could produce erratic wind gusts with speeds approaching 40 mph. The best chances for that would be for PUW/LWS. After 06z...the threat should wane for all locations with VFR conditions expected through remainder of forecast. fx && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 80 49 63 44 66 47 / 20 40 60 70 20 10 Coeur d`Alene 80 48 62 44 64 46 / 20 50 60 70 40 20 Pullman 78 45 61 42 64 44 / 20 50 60 60 30 10 Lewiston 86 52 69 47 72 50 / 30 60 60 60 30 10 Colville 80 47 65 47 68 47 / 40 80 60 70 30 20 Sandpoint 78 47 61 46 61 45 / 30 70 60 70 60 20 Kellogg 78 47 59 43 61 46 / 40 50 70 80 80 20 Moses Lake 82 52 73 49 76 51 / 20 50 40 20 0 0 Wenatchee 79 55 71 53 74 54 / 30 50 40 10 10 0 Omak 80 52 69 49 74 47 / 30 70 60 30 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 AT 3 PM...A 990 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ANS THEN SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A BROKEN DECK OF INSTABILITY CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN LAYER OF 850 TO 800 MB MOISTURE AND 10 C/KM LAPSE RATES. THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO BRINGING DOWN WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH. FOR TONIGHT...THE RAP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BROKEN DECK OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH 13.03Z...AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 13.03Z AND 13.06Z. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AS DIUNRAL HEATING TAKES PLACE...900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 10 C/KM. THIS WILL MIX DOWN DRIER AIR MUCH ALOFT. THE AWIPS MIX TOOL SUGGEST THAT DEW POINTS WILL IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN... AND AROUND 40 WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS 5 TO 10 DEGREE LOWER THAN THE MOS. THIS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. UNLIKE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY LESS 7 MPH UP TO 800 MB...SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 12.12Z ARW GENERATES SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS IN THIS MODELS ARE RUNNING NEARLY 10 DEGREES TOO HIGH. THIS IS RESULTING IN TOO HIGH OF CAPES. IN ADDITION...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT WENT DRY DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN KEPT A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE NORTHWEST OF A NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN TO OELWEIN IOWA LINE. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN MOVE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JETS VEERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS CLIMBING INTO THE 3.5 TO 4 KM RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.8 INCHES...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN. WHILE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE INHIBITED BY THE LACK OF 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR...AND ML CAPES LESS THAN 250 J/KG. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE POSITION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...SO JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS MORNING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS LOW AND THE APPROACHING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP THE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES IN WITH THE GUSTS DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THEN SUSTAINED SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 10 KNOTS BEFORE 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PLACE BEHIND THE LOW AND THE WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THESE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE BEST MOISTURE MOVES PAST THE REGION AND AS COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS. CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...04