Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/12/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
355 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA IS BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY. CURRENT 24 HR TEMPERATURE
TRENDS ARE RUNNING DOWN AROUND 3-9 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A
VERY DRY SYSTEM...INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW IS
SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA. WITH
THE LACK OF MOISTURE THERE COULD BE SOME LSOLATED DRY LIGHTNING
BUT NOT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
NAMDNG5 AND HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE PASSES AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY THROUGH 2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE
PROGGED TO TRACK INLAND...MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERAL TROUGHY PATTERN OVER THE REGION...CONTINUING A
COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND CLIMO BY
FRIDAY AND HOVERING NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. JUST A FEW
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
PLEASE SEE SFOAQAHNX
THE VALLEY AIR DISTRICT HAS ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR SAN
JOAQUIN...STANISLAUS...MERCED...FRESNO...KINGS...AND THE VALLEY
PORTION OF KERN COUNTIES FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO BLOWING DUST CAUSED BY WINDY CONDITIONS.
EXPOSURE TO PARTICLE POLLUTION CAN CAUSE SERIOUS HEALTH PROBLEMS...
AGGRAVATE LUNG DISEASE... CAUSE ASTHMA ATTACKS AND ACUTE
BRONCHITIS AND INCREASE RISK OF RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS. IN PEOPLE
WITH HEART DISEASE... SHORT-TERM EXPOSURE TO PARTICLE POLLUTION
HAS BEEN LINKED TO HEART ATTACKS AND ARRHYTHMIAS...ACCORDING TO
THE U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY. CHILDREN AND ELDERLY
PEOPLE ARE ALSO MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONSEQUENCES OF HIGH
PARTICULATE LEVELS.
STAY INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. AVOID PROLONGED OR STRENUOUS OUTDOOR
PHYSICAL ACTIVITIES TO REDUCE THE AFFECTS OF UNHEALTHY AIR.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 06-10 106:1986 65:1976 70:1939 46:1954
KFAT 06-11 106:1979 71:1894 72:1918 47:1894
KFAT 06-12 107:1985 66:1998 73:1985 47:1952
KBFL 06-10 107:1975 73:1976 74:1975 45:1954
KBFL 06-11 109:1979 73:1963 75:1975 42:1913
KBFL 06-12 110:1979 63:1998 75:1979 38:1907
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ089-091-092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...PJ
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1220 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.UPDATE...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAMDNG5 INDICATE THAT GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH WITH REGARDS TO BOTH LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AS
THESE TWO HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
REGION TODAY BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ALONG THE
WEST COAST BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA
FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS AS WELL AS RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON MONDAY IS SHIFTING
EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SOCAL COAST NEAR
34N/124W PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE SOCAL COAST. 00Z AND 06Z WRF RUNS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A COOLING TREND BY 4-7 DEG F
TODAY AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES LOWER ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND KERN
COUNTY DESERTS WILL STILL HAVE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER IMPACT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE FOR
OUR AREA IS THAT IT WILL PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND ALONG THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH WV IMAGERY AND RH PROGS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE....THE 06Z WRF INDICATES CAPES OF 800
TO 1200 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LI/S BETWEEN -4 AND -1 DEG C WHILE SPC HAS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA IN A GENERAL RISK AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AM CONCERNED THAT WITH THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS FEATURE BEING MAINLY HIGH BASED THAT DRY LIGHTING WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE COOLING TREND CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
CONTINUE TO FALL. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS IT WILL BE TODAY AS THERE
WILL NOT BE AS MUCH LIFT. BY THURSDAY A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW WHICH WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MID JUNE AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR CROSS OUR AREA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY IN KEEPING
OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 1129 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY JUNE 10 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 06-10 106:1986 65:1976 70:1939 46:1954
KFAT 06-11 106:1979 71:1894 72:1918 47:1894
KFAT 06-12 107:1985 66:1998 73:1985 47:1952
KBFL 06-10 107:1975 73:1976 74:1975 45:1954
KBFL 06-11 109:1979 73:1963 75:1975 42:1913
KBFL 06-12 110:1979 63:1998 75:1979 38:1907
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
CAZ089-091-092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY/JEB
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...PJ
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
713 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS MOVED OFF INTO KANSAS. A COOL AND
MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE FROM 8 PM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN COLORADO...WHICH
APPEARS IS BEING PRODUCED BY A WAVE ALONG THE COLORADO-UTAH
BORDER. WILL KEEP 20-40 POPS IN THE THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FOR THIS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TOO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
TONIGHT...A MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY. OVERALL THE STORMS THERE WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH
GOOD STORM MOTIONS OF 20KT OR MORE. GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AT THIS
TIME...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
THE FRONT SETTLES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE. THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT HAVE PRODUCE MORE
WIND AND BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. AS THEY MOVE INTO
DEEPER MOISTURE THAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS. GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE EAST
OF DENVER...BETWEEN INTERSTATE 76 AND 70. HAIL UP TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN ISSUE...COULD SEE HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS AS WELL...UP TO ONE INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. ON
FRIDAY...AMS FAIRLY DRY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. FURTHER EAST...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FOOTHILLS BELOW 7K FT
AND OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. IT MAY BE TOO STABLE FOR TSTMS OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS...BUT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE FOOTHILLS COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IN AND NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A FEW STORMS
GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS THURSDAY EVENING. EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...AIRMASS
LOOKING A BIT TOO CAPPED FOR ANY CONVECTION...PERHAPS ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 0.65 INCHES ALONG FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR WITH CLOUDS
TO 0.50 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SOME STORMS ALONG FOOTHILLS AND
URBAN CORRIDOR COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY
SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS AIRMASS STABILIZES FURTHER WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. LATEST SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECASTS
INDICATING SPREADS HAVE INCREASED A BIT...ENOUGH TO DROP THE
MENTION OF THE PATCHY FOG. ON FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SO LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE A DRY LINE CLOUD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DRY LINE
COULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR SOME HAIL. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE
25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. WARMER AIRMASS WITH HIGHS WARMING IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY SATURDAY AS MODELS BRING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS WYOMING. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHOW COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
WYOMING WHICH HELP WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER. WILL BOOST THE POPS SLIGHTLY THERE. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ON
SUNDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COOLER LOW LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTION
OVER THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING OVER COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HELP WITH
CONVECTION.
FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HANDLING THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. BOTH MODELS
SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING IN
THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER. IN ANY CASE IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH FOR MUCH IMPACT ON COLORADO. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR. LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT
ROBUST WITH THE COOLER AIR THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL BE FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY A 5 TO 7 DEGREE COOL DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AT THE DENVER AIRPORTS THROUGH 06Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM WITH CEILINGS
FALLING BELOW 2000 FEET. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR FOG FROM
10Z TO 15Z. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
LESS...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
FORM...BEST CHANCE BEING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
STORM MOTIONS GREATER THAN 20 KTS THIS EVENING SO THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE LOW. BETTER MOISTURE THURSDAY BUT GREATER STABILITY
AS WELL SO THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN LOW. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY
HELP INCREASE THE SNOW MELT AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS RUNNING FAST WITH LEVELS REMAINING FAIRLY HIGH. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RIVERS AND
STREAM LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH WITH NOT MUCH
IMPACT FROM THE STORMS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...COOPER/D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
724 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMETIME NEXT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. INITIAL BAND OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIP AHEAD OF SLOWING WARM FRONT WELL TO THE S AND
WITHIN THE S FLOW FROM SLOWLY EXITING RIDGE...HAS DIMINISHED AS IT
ENTERED E MA AND RI WHERE HIGHER DWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE FOUND. GIVEN
THIS...WILL LOWER OVERALL POPS FOR THE EVENING
TIMEFRAME...BLENDING THEM TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS IN THE INTERIOR
FROM ANY REMNANT CONVECTION WHICH MAY FIRE UPSTREAM IN
PA/NY...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT...BUT WITH DWPTS IN
THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY MITIGATING THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG WAY FROM S COASTAL LOCATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ARE SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE AREA
AT PRESS TIME...DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR LATER TONIGHT.
AREA OF SHOWERS DRIVEN BY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PVA IS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAP MODEL IS HANDLING THIS WELL
AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A HARTFORD-
PROVIDENCE-BOSTON LINE. OVERALL...THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO
DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIER AIR
SITUATED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND EXPECT IT TO EXIT THE
REGION AROUND 00Z.
WITH REGARD TO FOG POTENTIAL...NOTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS
AROUND 12Z TODAY INVOF NANTUCKET WITH VISIBILITY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
2SM. FEEL CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /ESPECIALLY NANTUCKET/
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...W/MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...INDICATIVE OF A WARMER
AIR MASS OVER COOLER SSTS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY BOTH MAV/MET
GUIDANCE.
AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST...A DEEPER LAYER OF
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT OVER THE INTERIOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE COLUMN OVER THIS AREA WILL BECOME SATURATED BY 06Z
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES. THERE IS
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST OVER NEW YORK STATE BEGINS TO INDUCE A TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE WHICH NOSES INTO NW MA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH DURING
THIS PERIOD...AND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE LIMITED. THEREFORE...
IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET CONVECTION GOING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. THERE IS A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING...GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND ONSHORE FLOW...
EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THU NIGHT-FRI
* SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND WARMER SUN INTO MON
* NEXT BEST SHOT FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUE INTO WED
DETAILS...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN BOUTS OF MID LEVEL LIFT...WHICH WILL COMBINED
WITH PWATS OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THEREFORE...ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A VERY LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE SOME INSTABILITY WILL GIVE THE
ACTIVITY A BOOST. WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME FOG AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THINGS NOT LOOKING THAT GREAT. 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY UNDER 30 KNOTS WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF CAPES CAN REACH UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE.
SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SKY COVER AND HOW LONG ANY SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS BY FAR THE SLOWEST MODEL AND ACTUALLY LINGERS PRECIPITATION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WE WON/T GO THAT SLOW...BUT HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOR EASTERN SECTIONS.
SOME SUN SHOULD EMERGE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT LOTS OF CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN ESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 70S...BUT PERHAPS ONLY IN THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF FRONT MOVES SLOWER. AGAIN...THIS
FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND WILL DEPEND UPON HOW FAST COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL DAY. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...BUT WEAK GRADIENT MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SO AFTERNOON
TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST...BUT
STILL A BEAUTIFUL DAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HOT PATTERN...THE SETUP WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR WARM WEATHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST TWO DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BREAKING 80
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW A
FEW SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING...BUT PROBABLY WILL SEE A ROUND OR TWO OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE BEST SHOT FOR THIS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT BUT STILL SOMETHING WE MAY NEED TO
CONTEND WITH AT TIMES. ALSO...BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THAN
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE... SO PERHAPS MORE IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF VFR EVERYWHERE GIVES WAY TO SOME MVFR...CONDITIONS BUT
FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI/MA DUE TO FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS...FOR THE INTERIOR EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO MOVE FROM
SW- NE ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z. SOME TERMINALS IN E MA...SE NH MAY
REMAIN VFR UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
THE INTERIOR...AND ANY E-SE WINDS UP TO 15 KT WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TO START AND IN THE
INTERIOR OF MA/CT/RI AND FOG CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST. SOME OF
THIS MAY LIFT TO VFR FOR A TIME LATE MORNING AFTERNOON...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN MVFR IN LOWER CIGS. AFTERNOON -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE
IN INTERIOR MA/CT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SHRA THU AFTN.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THU AFTN.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL THEY MAY PERSIST LONGER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7PM UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED SMALL SEAS SCA BUT WILL HOIST SCA FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS STARTING AT 14Z THU.
SCA SEAS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO ISSUE
SCA AFTER CURRENT ONE EXPIRES THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAY REDUCE VSBYS. THIS FOG
COULD ALSO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS. SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
SCA HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED IN THIS REGION. AREAS OF FOG WILL
RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFT OVER
SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL RESULT IN SOME 5 FOOT SEAS LINGERING ACROSS
PORTIONS OUR OUTER-ATLANTIC WATERS INTO SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO
EXPECT TO SEAS TO BE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ235-237-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...DOODY/99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY/99
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
137 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
05Z REFLECTIVITY INDICATING DEVELOPING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
FORMING OFF THE COAST OF NJ ALONG A WEAK ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AND
UNDER A PASSING WEAK VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE. WEAK ELY FLOW WILL SLOWLY
TAKE THE STORMS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONVERGENCE PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING ALONG
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD ACT AS THE TRIGGERING POINT
FOR ISO-SCT SHOWERS...WITH THE 03Z HRRR AND 00Z MESO RUNS
FOLLOWING THIS TREND. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISO-SCT
WORDING WITH ISO TSTM TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 12Z.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DIURNAL
RANGES SMALL WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH THE UPPER 60S NYC
METRO.
IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE WARM...MOIST AIR COMING ACROSS THE COOLER
NEAR SHORE WATERS...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE COAST...WITH PATCHY FOG INLAND.
SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROF TO THE WEST...A DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE...AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALL POINT TO SCT CONVECTION ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUE AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BE A SOURCE
OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT...INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING ALOFT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE ARE NO
DISCERNIBLE FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO PINPOINT A TIME AND/OR LOCATION
FOR CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2
INCHES...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...THE STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
WEAK.
OTHERWISE...WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO AROUND 80 NYC METRO AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES
FROM SMITH POINT EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT PASSES EARLY WED. THIS BRINGS IN SOME STABLE ELY
COMPONENT FLOW. TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE SOLID LLVL MOISTURE...THEN
ANOTHER LAYER OF DEEPER MOISTURE ABV H5. NO INSTABILITY OF NOTE.
THIS SETUP WOULD GENERALLY YIELD A DRY/SPRINKLES FCST...BUT WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND RESIDUAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...LEFT
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA IN THE FCST. IF UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS
NOT SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST...THE MAINLY DRY DAY COULD VERIFY. THE
BOUNDARY S OF THE REGION RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT THU. TIMING ATTM IS
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TIMING IS CRITICAL...WITH THE BEST CAPE
ACCORDING TO CURRENT PROGS LURKING SW OF THE CWA WITH A BRN AROUND
45. THERE WILL BE A SVR THREAT IN THAT SECTOR. AS A RESULT...CANNOT
RULE OUT A SVR THREAT THU AFTN ESPECIALLY NRN NJ IF THE FRONTAL
TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE A LITTLE FASTER. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...SO TSTMS SHOULD BLOSSOM DURING THE DAY. TOO FAR OUT FOR
THE MESOSCALE DATA...BUT THE GFS GIVES 25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND
SOME SBCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. COULD BE A GOOD BALANCE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AND SOME SVR. THE H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS INTO QUEBEC ON
SAT AND USHERS IN HIPRES INTO THE NERN CONUS. THE CDFNT TIMING IS
PROGGED DURING THE DAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE SLOWER. SHRA CHCS END BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRY WX BLOWS IN
THRU MON. THE STRETCH OF FAIR WX MAY CONTINUE THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 08Z.
SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z. CONDITIONS
FALL BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND 00Z. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF...OTHER THAN A
TEMPO GROUP.
WINDS GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KNYC
TERMINALS WHERE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-7 KT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/PSBL
TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN ON TRACK AS FORECASTED.
A PERSISTENT...BUT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SEAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH EARLY WED MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE FRONT NEARS.
CONDITIONS WED THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY BLW SCA LVLS. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT ON THU AND FRI. THERE IS A
LOW CHC THAT SEAS OFF MONTAUK COULD REACH THE 5 FT THRESHOLD AT
TIMES DURING THESE PERIODS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY COME
WITH A COLD FRONT FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...SEARS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
840 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH COVERAGE OF STORMS LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY...
...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CURRENT...TAMPA RADARS...FAA AND NWS...WERE DETECTING RAIN
WELL WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF...ALMOST TO THE LIMIT OF THE RADAR
RANGE. IR SATELLITE LOOP AND RUC40 LOOPS SHOWING SAME COMPLEX AND
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE EASTERN GULF MOVING TOWARD THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST. THE RUC RUN WAS SUGGESTING THAT THE CLOUDINESS
WOULD LAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THE UPDATE WILL STRETCH ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE...DEPENDING WHETHER
ON THE ATLANTIC OR LAND...PAST MIDNIGHT AND UP TO THE NEW ZONE
ISSUANCE AT 4PM. COULD PUT A PRE FIRST PERIOD TO COVER SHOWERS
THROUGH 8AM WHEN THE NEW ZONE PACKAGE OFFICIALLY GOES INTO EFFECT.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT TROUGH TONIGHT...A VERY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS IN
PROGRESS. ONSET OF SHOWERS/STORMS WAS A LITTLE BEFORE NOON WITH
NUMEROUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-45MPH
RANGE...A LITTLE HIGHER IN A SOME SPOTS. ANOTHER BAND OF STORMS
ALONG A SECOND LARGER SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE
JAX TO SAINT AUGUSTINE TO OCALA TO CRYSTAL RIVER...AND WILL INTERACT
WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO KEEP STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET...AND LIKELY A FEW HOURS BEYOND...OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF CWA.
THU-FRI (PREV)...WEAKENING UPR TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST TO THE
CAROLINA COAST WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS COOLING TO -11/-12C AT 500 MB
OVER EC FL...WHICH IS QUITE COLD/UNSTABLE ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED ACROSS SOUTH FL SO
THE RESULTING W/SW FLOW WILL DELAY ONSET OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DOMINATE AND MARCH
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. STORM COVERAGE LOOKS HIGH ESP ON THU WHERE WE
HAVE DRAWN LIKELY (60 PERCENT) POPS ALL AREAS. A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRI SO HAVE DRAWN 50 POPS BUT
SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY SEE EQUALLY HIGH COVERAGE AS THU.
THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOMED BY MANY ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH HAS
BEEN MISSING OUT RECENTLY. BUT THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND INTERACTION WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS.
SAT-WED (PREV)...ALTHOUGH WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THIS WEEKEND...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST US EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WEAKENING
STEERING FLOW SHOULD FOCUS SCT AFTN STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR KISM-KMLB SOUTH AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGER WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS
FIRST BAND OF STORMS WELL EAST OF THE INTERIOR SITES
(LEE/SFB/ISM/MCO) AND IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH DAB-TIX. THIS BAND
WILL REACH MLB BTWN 20Z-21Z...BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH FARTHER SE.
SECOND BAND OF STORMS LIKELY TO REACH LEE BY 20Z...PERHAPS WEAKENING
SOME AS IT MOVES SE TOWARD SFB AND THEN MCO/ISM...BUT STILL COULD
PRODUCE ISOLD TS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
ANOTHER (EARLY) ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NOAA BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120NM. THE TWO SCRIPPS
BUOYS 4 AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 1 FOOT SEAS. TROUGH
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF KEEP SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF IT. OFFSHORE WINDS ALSO HOLD SEAS DOWN
TO 2 FEET OR LESS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS THROUGH SUNSET. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE IN SAFE HARBOR IN
ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH AND PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS AT/ABOVE 35KT...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOW VSBYS IN RAIN...AND
LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.
THU-FRI...OFFSHORE (W TO SW) FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. A LATE SEA BREEZE OUT OF THE SE
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTN NEAR THE COAST ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
A HIGH COVERAGE OF STORMS...SOME STRONG...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
OFFSHORE ESP THU AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO
3 FT OFFSHORE.
SAT-SUN...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
WATERS WHICH WILL DECREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALLOW AN EARLIER
ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE ESP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. AFTN STORMS
WILL TEND TO STAY OVER THE FL PENINSULA BUT SOME DRIFT BACK TOWARD
THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR NORTH OF THE CAPE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 89 71 90 / 30 60 30 50
MCO 72 91 72 92 / 30 60 20 50
MLB 73 88 72 90 / 20 60 30 50
VRB 73 89 72 89 / 20 60 30 50
LEE 73 91 73 92 / 30 60 20 50
SFB 74 93 73 94 / 30 60 20 50
ORL 75 91 74 93 / 30 60 20 50
FPR 72 89 71 90 / 20 60 30 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
808 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014
.UPDATE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOT AS INTENSE AS YESTERDAY...AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME COOLING BELOW 500MB COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...THUS LESS STEEP LAPSE RATES. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
DECREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THRU
SUNSET. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTED SOME ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OUR SRN
ZONES THIS EVENING FROM EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT MODEL
APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THIS ACTIVITY BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. SO EXPECT QUIET NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...ACROSS SE GEORGIA REMNANT BUT WANING ISOLD
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE GEORGIA COAST.
HAVE ADDED VCSH OVER SSI THRU 01Z DUE TO APPROACH OF DEBILITATED
BUT RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VFR AND RAIN FREE
TERMINAL FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE KVQQ WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WITH LIGHT FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. UPPER TROF WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE
SE US TOMORROW...WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS COOLING A COUPLE DEGREES TO
-10C OVER NE FL AND SE GA. MOIST SW FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN AT KGNV AND DURING THE
AFTN/EARLY EVE FOR KSSI...KJAX...KCRG AND KVQQ TERMINALS. ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH BY 22Z-02Z WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH NOON THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING CUMULIFORM CLOUDS IN THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.
&&
.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE...
WITH SW WINDS 10-15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS CONTINUING RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 69 89 69 90 / 20 60 40 40
SSI 72 86 72 87 / 60 50 30 30
JAX 70 88 70 90 / 20 70 40 40
SGJ 73 87 72 89 / 20 50 30 40
GNV 69 88 69 90 / 20 60 40 50
OCF 70 89 70 90 / 20 70 40 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF/CORDERO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE FORECAST IS REDUCED VSBY IN SMOKE FROM
BROWARD COUNTY FIRE. CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE NOT MATERIALIZING
LIKE 24 HOURS AGO AND IT APPEARS MORE MIXING IS TAKING PLACE
ALLOWING FOR THE SMOKE TO DISPERSE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE UNLIKE
LAST NIGHT. IN ADDITION, SURFACE FLOW HAS BECOME NEARLY CALM WITH
LAND BREEZE NOT DEVELOPING. THUS, HAVE REMOVED REDUCED VSBY IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SMOKE IN A SHORT
TIME PERIOD AROUND 10-12Z AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. SEA BREEZES
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK
SO STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS THIS AREA HAS NOT SEEN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY. SO WILL REMOVE POPS OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WHERE A 20 PERCENT
POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRE OVER WESTERN BROWARD COUNTY WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS A DRAINAGE FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION. SO WILL CONTINUE THE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD SMOKE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY SMOKE
RIGHT ALONG THE EAST COASTAL AREAS.
THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDER OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING IN -9 TO -11C 500 MB TEMPS TO THE AREA BY MIDDLE
TO END OF THE WEEK. SO A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THEREFORE...THE
HWO PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WORDING FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/
AVIATION...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN TERMS OF SMOKE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. LARGE WILDFIRE OVER RURAL BROWARD HAS GROWN TO NEARLY
20,000 ACRES. JUST SPOKE TO FLORIDA FORESTRY SERVICE AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MISSED THE FIRE TODAY...SO SMOKE EMISSIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WIND FLOW IS ALREADY LIGHT AND HRRR MODEL SHOWS
OFFSHORE NW LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ACT TO
RE-SEND SMOKE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PIN POINTING HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GO
AND WHERE THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IS IMPOSSIBLE. IN
COLLABORATION WITH CWSU MIAMI, OPTED TO GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AND WILL AMEND ACCORDINGLY AS
IFR IS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. ADDED VCTS ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING BY
NOON TUE FOR THE EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPMENT THEN.
/GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE GULF
BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
HAS ALSO PUSHED INLAND DEVELOPING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY STRETCHING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNDOWN WITH HEATING LOSS.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE DUE TO AN ONGOING
WILDFIRE IN NORTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY. SMOKE LINGERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE BROWARD METRO AREAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA AS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SMOKE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROBLEM AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
AGAIN. THEREFORE KEPT PATCHY TO AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL YIELD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. AN H5 TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY BUT
SHOULD STILL BE A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE
APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE DEPICTED BY THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING VALUES IN THE -9C TO -11C
RANGE. YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND KEEPING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THESE COULD
BE STRONG DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AVIATION...
AFTERNOON HEATING AND MIXING COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HAS LED TO A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
REGARDING THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMOKE FROM
THE LARGE WILDFIRE. ALTHOUGH THE SMOKE CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS...WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
TRENDING DOWN. LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE
CONCERN WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON THE LATEST STATE OF
THE WILDFIRE. FOR NOW...THIS TAF PACKAGE DOES NOT INCLUDE SMOKE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS REMAINING WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1039 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE CONTINUED CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS
DIMINISHING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE
BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHED INSTABILITY AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST
FRIDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED WITH A SECOND TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY
ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LOW...MAINLY
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. TEMPS
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. FOR FRIDAY READINGS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS NOW SHOWING THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN
UPPER RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS KEEPS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY MID-
WEEK...DEEPER TROUGH TAKES HOLD IN THE WESTERN STATES...HELPING TO
BUILD A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT TYPICALLY SUMMER PATTERN OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS
DIMINISHING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE
BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHED INSTABILITY AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING. THEREFORE...THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE APPEARS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS OVERNIGHT. FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH 13Z MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL. THE GFS LAMP INDICATES
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP IMPROVE
VISIBILITIES LATER IN THE MORNING AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AROUND 13Z. THE HEATING WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY...BUT THESE WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1006 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE CONTINUED CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS
DIMINISHING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE
BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHED INSTABILITY AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST
FRIDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED WITH A SECOND TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY
ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LOW...MAINLY
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. TEMPS
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. FOR FRIDAY READINGS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS NOW SHOWING THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN
UPPER RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS KEEPS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY MID-
WEEK...DEEPER TROUGH TAKES HOLD IN THE WESTERN STATES...HELPING TO
BUILD A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT TYPICALLY SUMMER PATTERN OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS
DIMINISHING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE
BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHED INSTABILITY AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING. THEREFORE...THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE APPEARS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE FROM AROUND 09Z THROUGH 13Z MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL. THE GFS LAMP INDICATES
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP IMPROVE
VISIBILITIES LATER IN THE MORNING AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AROUND 13Z. THE HEATING WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY...BUT THESE WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
409 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF LOWS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS
OCCURRING. INSTABILITY WAS STRONG WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -8.
THE LAPS SOUNDING SHOWED SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH KI/S ABOUT 26. THE
RAP SHOWED SOME H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS JUST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND
INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WIND IN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA PLUS WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10500 FEET FAVOR DAMAGING HAIL.
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EXTREME WESTERN GEORGIA AT 400 PM MAY REACH THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD 900 PM. THE 15Z HRRR SHOWED THIS CONVECTION
WEAKENING DURING THE 800 PM TO 200 AM TIME FRAME AND GENERALLY STAYING
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THIS TROUGH DOES TRY TO CLOSE OFF THURSDAY AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CAROLINAS REMAIN IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AIR MASS TO
REMAIN MOIST. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEARING THE CWA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST. THE CURRENT
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE WEEKEND LOW...BUT IN
GENERAL STILL EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAY BEGIN TO SEE THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN FLATTEN BRIEFLY ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION AND DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL
NOT INCLUDE STORMS IN FORECAST...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A FEW OF
THEM AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED
CUMULUS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY. SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROUND 18Z THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE
REGIONS RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SERIES OF LOWS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS. A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE SO FAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. MAX TEMPS TODAY COULD REACH THE UPPER
90S. WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY REACHING
SEVERE LIMITS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION BEFORE
LATE AFTERNOON AND 06Z CAE WRF MODEL NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION
OVER OUR AREA BEFORE LATE EVENING. AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN POSSIBLE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS
FOR STORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP COULD
BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN POPS
AROUND 30 PERCENT MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS TROUGH DOES TRY TO CLOSE OFF THURSDAY AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CAROLINAS REMAIN IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AIRMASS TO REMAIN
MOIST. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEARING THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE...TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST. THE CURRENT
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE WEEKEND LOW...BUT IN
GENERAL STILL EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAY BEGIN TO SEE THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN FLATTEN BRIEFLY ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION AND DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL
NOT INCLUDE STORMS IN FORECAST...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A FEW OF
THEM AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED
CUMULUS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY. SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROUND 18Z THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
929 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPS AND MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
OUR REGION...AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...WITH CLOSED
UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED NORTH
INTO NC. MODELS INDICATE SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR OUR
REGION TODAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
VALLEY REGION. A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
PLENTIFUL SUN AND DIURNAL HEATING. MAX TEMPS TODAY COULD REACH
THE UPPER 90S. WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY
REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. HRRR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION BEFORE
LATE AFTERNOON AND CAE WRF MODEL NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION OVER
OUR AREA BEFORE LATE EVENING. AIR MASS DOES BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN POSSIBLE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TRIGGERS FOR STORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE S AND
SW. MODEL POPS AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON THE INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY SHIFT UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST FRIDAY BUT
INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ECMWF CLOSES
OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER OUR REGION SAT/SUN...MOVING IT SLOWLY TO OUR
EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS WEAKENS THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST THEN SHIFTS IT TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION AND DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL
NOT INCLUDE STORMS IN FORECAST...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A FEW OF
THEM AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS 5-10 MPH WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
156 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE PLUS A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
BARNWELL AND BAMBERG COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH AT 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SO CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING THROUGH SUNRISE. A QUASI-
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR MODELS SHOWS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND
REACHING THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS NEAR DAYBREAK. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WARM MID
AND LOW LEVELS WITH A BIT OF A CAPPING INVERSION. DESPITE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF A TRIGGER AND ANY UPPER SUPPORT AND THE
INHIBITING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION AND WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE THOUGH WITH FAVORABLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR
AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. WILL KEEP WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID...POSSIBLY SOME
UPPER...90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTHERLY 500MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN MOIST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY WITH DIMINISHING
POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION WANES DUE TO LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM IN
THE AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING AROUND 1.7 INCHES WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT WILL
LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA. SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING
RETURNS BY SUNDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AND EXPECT DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION EXCEPT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND CLEARING SKIES COULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG
FORMATION. HOWEVER...KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 20-25 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET AT 1000-2000 FT WHICH MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL
CARRY PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS AT OGB/AGS 07Z-12Z TIME PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT OGB DUE TO OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
EARLIER STORMS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ANY TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
955 AM CDT
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR WORDING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
NORTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PASSING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING WHICH IS AIDING IN THE LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHERN
AREAS HAVE LIKELY SEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN THIS MORNING WHILE
AREAS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-80 AND POINTS NORTH HAVE SEEN LIGHT
RAIN FALL BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO MEASURE. ANOTHER PUSH OF LIGHT
RAIN IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERSTATE 80 NOW AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DO SO THOUGH A DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD. MORE ORGANIZED FORCING TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE IN
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY LINGERING NORTH
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH. OTHERWISE CHANCES
INCREASE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS
GIVEN THE LIGHT RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
248 AM CDT
TODAY...
FOCUS TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE...AS GUIDANCE
HAS MAINTAINED SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. EARLY THIS MORNING THE
DRY AIR OVER NORTHEAST IL REMAINS IN PLACE...AS DEW POINTS HAVE HELD
IN THE LOW/MID 40S. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS/DEW PTS HAVE RISEN TO ARND 60. THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ONTARIO...WITH THE SFC LOW ANALYZED OVER THE OZARKS. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO TIGHTEN...AND CONTINUE TO FILTER THE DRIER
AIR INTO NORTHEAST IL THRU THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING CLEARLY SHOWS THIS...AS THE CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO THIN.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIP...THERE
IS AGREEMENT THAT THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN CWFA BY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE IN THE LLVL MOISTURE...WITH
PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 1.5-1.75" MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IN/OH AND SLOWLY SEEP WEST INTO NORTHEAST
IL. LOCAL ARW8KM SUGGESTS THE BEST TIMING FOR COVERAGE/PRECIP
ARRIVING NORTH OF I-80 WILL LIKELY BE AFT 20Z...AND THE MOST RECENT
CYCLES WOULD SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE GIVEN SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID THE LLVL MOISTURE
AND DRY AIR OVER LOWER MI WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW AS WELL...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN
400J/KG AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION THE PRECIP
CHALLENGES...TEMPS WILL EQUALLY BE TOUGH TODAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER SHIELDING THE DIRECT LIGHT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO WARM AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO GENERALLY ARND 70 TO
LOW 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN
NORTHEAST IL AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
500MB CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO TRANSITION BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE EARLY
WED MORNING. REMNANTS FROM THE SFC RIDGE CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN POSE CHALLENGES TO THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST CWFA...AND COULD SEE THIS NEEDING TO BE
FURTHER ADJUSTED/FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTHEAST. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. HI-RES LOCAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS
EVEN LESS COVERAGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD...WITH THE OPER NAM TRENDING
IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. HAVE BROUGHT QPF TOTALS DOWN
FURTHER...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA. IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT BY MIDDAY WED THE PRECIP COULD BE ENDING IN THE
WESTERN CWFA...AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PIVOTS EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING SFC RIDGING DEVELOPING ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH WED
NGT...AND HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF THE DRY AIR FOR WED NGT TO
REFLECT THIS.
TEMPS WED WILL ONCE AGAIN HINGE UPON CLOUD COVER. SFC WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE NORTHERLY...BACKING AND DIMINISHING TO NEARLY CALM LATE WED
NGT. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING...HAVE TRIMMED
TEMPS BACK TO ARND 70/LOW 70S. BUT CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH...AND COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WED.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THUR...WITH
FLOW QUICKLY TURNING SOUTH AND ADVECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO
THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING PASSING WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THUR...EXPECT THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THUR NGT TO BE RATHER QUIET. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE LOW COVERAGE AND NOT STRONG AT THIS
TIME GIVEN SUCH A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THEN DRY AIR RETURNS THUR
NGT AND WILL PERSIST THRU SAT NGT AS BROAD SFC RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE REGION. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...IT DOES APPEAR SOME
CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ENSEMBLES
ARE LEANING TOWARDS BROAD TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
AND ALLOWING FOR SOME AMPLIFICATIONS TO A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FOR THE
GREAT LAKES SUN/MON. FLOW SHUD TURN SOUTHERLY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 80S. IN
ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH MVFR LIKELY AND
IFR A POSSIBILITY.
* PERIODS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BRINGING SCATTERED
HIGH BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS KEEPING THE
LOWEST LEVELS DRY AND CONDITIONS VFR THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAUSING
MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. WHAT IS
HITTING THE GROUND IS GENERALLY IS IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES THAT ARE NOT DOING MUCH TO IMPACT VSBY...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST
REFLECTIVITY AREAS. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT TOP DOWN
SATURATION TO OCCUR WITH CIGS EVENTUALLY REACHING MVFR THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN MORE
MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS AREA
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS WITH A SECOND AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN FOCUSED MORE OVER RFD WHERE THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE AND QUICKER TO LEAVE.
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL REST OF TODAY THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NEAR DAYBREAK....AS THE SURFACE LOW NEARS THE
AREA...THERE GROWS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION
GIVEN MODELS DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW TRACK. HOPEFULLY UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH KEEP A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A FARTHER SOUTH LOW TRACK.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS AND DROPPING TO MVFR...LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THROUGH VERY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA EXITING DURING EVENING.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS RESULTING
IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE...WITH
THIS DIRECTION REMAINING TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE MORE TOWARDS THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE. A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY KEEP THESE SPEEDS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
Latest surface map shows an elongated low pressure area from near
Columbia MO southwest into northwest Arkansas, with a warm front
arcing northeast roughly near I-70. Initial band of deformation
rain has mostly shifted north out of the CWA, but some patchy
showers/drizzle continue to the south. Latest HRRR had the general
trends down, and show an additional surge of showers northward
into the southeast CWA toward midday as the front lifts north. The
orientation of the front will become more tilted along the I-57
corridor as the afternoon progresses, with additional showers
spreading across the remainder of the CWA during the afternoon.
CAPE`s not especially impressive, but expected to rise into the
500-800 J/kg range, supportive of some thunder in most areas.
Currently think the far northwest CWA has a minimal threat, so
have removed the thunder mention in that area, and adjusted the
timing elsewhere to concentrate it more in the afternoon.
Have also made some adjustments to temperatures, primarily across
the northwest half of the CWA. Currently only in the lower 60s
northwest of Peoria, and the main surge of warmer air will be
further southeast today. Have lowered high temperatures a few
degrees across the northwest, closer to the LAMP guidance. Made
some adjustments to hourly trends in the southeast, but kept highs
close to where they were.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
IFR conditions continuing at the TAF sites at midday. While the
visibilities will be fairly variable and rise quite a bit at
times, the ceilings are mainly expected to only slowly rise into
MVFR territory. Best chance of getting higher than that this
happening would be at KSPI and perhaps KPIA, where the low clouds
have broken up in the vicinity of a surface low which is moving
northeast. Earlier widespread showers have lifted north, but
additional rain is rapidly moving up from south central Illinois
and will be reaching KCMI/KDEC shortly. A few thunderstorms will
be possible this afternoon as a warm front moves northward in
eastern Illinois, with the threat quickly ending by sunset. Think
there will be a more widespread MVFR condition by early evening
before dropping back down again tonight as an upper low drifts
into central Illinois. Winds are a bit problematic later in the
period with the models varying in the track of the surface low,
which impacts the direction, but speeds should generally be around
5 knots or less after 06Z.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
07z/2am radar imagery shows initial band of light rain associated
with approaching upper low lifting slowly northward across central
Illinois, with the northern edge of the rain extending along a
Rantoul to Macomb line. Air mass sampled by both the KILX and KDVN
evening upper air soundings was quite dry, so precipitation has
been slow to spread northward. As air mass slowly moistens, rain
will eventually reach the far northern KILX CWA around Galesburg
and Lacon by daybreak. Additional showers will develop across the
area throughout the day, as warm/moist air flows northward from
the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the system. Forecast soundings
indicate only weak elevated instability later this morning into
the afternoon, suggesting mainly showers with perhaps a few
isolated thunderstorms. Better instability will be found further
southeast across Kentucky and Tennessee where a slight risk for
severe weather is in place. Due to extensive cloud cover and
occasional showers, high temperatures today will be held in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Upper low will track from northeast Oklahoma early this morning
into north-central Illinois by Wednesday morning. While a mid-level
dry slot may tend to work into southeast Illinois tonight thus
reducing rain chances there, deformation zone precip will likely
be concentrated along/west of I-55. Will continue to carry likely
PoPs through tonight before gradually dropping to chance PoPs on
Wednesday. All model solutions show the low E/NE of Illinois by
00z Thu, so will bring the rain chances to an end Wednesday night.
Based on the latest projections, additional rainfall with this
system between now and Wednesday afternoon will generally be
between half an inch and one inch, with a corridor of heavier
rainfall in excess of 1 inch along/near the I-55 corridor.
Once the upper low exits, the next system will quickly come into
the picture on Thursday as a northern stream wave tracks through
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Weak cold front will push
into central Illinois Thursday afternoon/evening, potentially
triggering a few showers/storms. Think this system will have
limited moisture to work with, so will only mention low chance
PoPs as the boundary passes. Otherwise, Thursday will be a partly
sunny and warm day with highs in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
High pressure will build into the Midwest behind the departing
front for Friday, providing cooler and less humid conditions. High
temperatures will remain in the 70s, while overnight lows dip into
the middle to upper 50s. As the high slides off to the east,
warmer and more humid air mass will return early next week. Models
are showing an upper ridge building across the eastern CONUS with
an approaching frontal boundary losing eastward momentum as it
becomes parallel with the upper flow. Consensus brings scattered
showers/storms into west-central Illinois on Sunday, then further
east across the entire area Sunday night into Monday. Do not think
this will be a wash-out by any means, as upper heights will be
rising and boundary will be dissipating. Main weather story early
next week will be the very warm/humid conditions, as highs rise
into the middle to upper 80s and dew points climb well into the
60s.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
955 AM CDT
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR WORDING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
NORTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PASSING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING WHICH IS AIDING IN THE LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHERN
AREAS HAVE LIKELY SEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN THIS MORNING WHILE
AREAS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-80 AND POINTS NORTH HAVE SEEN LIGHT
RAIN FALL BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO MEASURE. ANOTHER PUSH OF LIGHT
RAIN IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERSTATE 80 NOW AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DO SO THOUGH A DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD. MORE ORGANIZED FORCING TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE IN
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY LINGERING NORTH
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH. OTHERWISE CHANCES
INCREASE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS
GIVEN THE LIGHT RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
248 AM CDT
TODAY...
FOCUS TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE...AS GUIDANCE
HAS MAINTAINED SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. EARLY THIS MORNING THE
DRY AIR OVER NORTHEAST IL REMAINS IN PLACE...AS DEW POINTS HAVE HELD
IN THE LOW/MID 40S. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS/DEW PTS HAVE RISEN TO ARND 60. THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ONTARIO...WITH THE SFC LOW ANALYZED OVER THE OZARKS. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO TIGHTEN...AND CONTINUE TO FILTER THE DRIER
AIR INTO NORTHEAST IL THRU THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING CLEARLY SHOWS THIS...AS THE CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO THIN.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIP...THERE
IS AGREEMENT THAT THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN CWFA BY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE IN THE LLVL MOISTURE...WITH
PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 1.5-1.75" MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IN/OH AND SLOWLY SEEP WEST INTO NORTHEAST
IL. LOCAL ARW8KM SUGGESTS THE BEST TIMING FOR COVERAGE/PRECIP
ARRIVING NORTH OF I-80 WILL LIKELY BE AFT 20Z...AND THE MOST RECENT
CYCLES WOULD SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE GIVEN SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID THE LLVL MOISTURE
AND DRY AIR OVER LOWER MI WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW AS WELL...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN
400J/KG AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION THE PRECIP
CHALLENGES...TEMPS WILL EQUALLY BE TOUGH TODAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER SHIELDING THE DIRECT LIGHT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO WARM AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO GENERALLY ARND 70 TO
LOW 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN
NORTHEAST IL AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
500MB CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO TRANSITION BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE EARLY
WED MORNING. REMNANTS FROM THE SFC RIDGE CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN POSE CHALLENGES TO THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST CWFA...AND COULD SEE THIS NEEDING TO BE
FURTHER ADJUSTED/FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTHEAST. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. HI-RES LOCAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS
EVEN LESS COVERAGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD...WITH THE OPER NAM TRENDING
IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. HAVE BROUGHT QPF TOTALS DOWN
FURTHER...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA. IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT BY MIDDAY WED THE PRECIP COULD BE ENDING IN THE
WESTERN CWFA...AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PIVOTS EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING SFC RIDGING DEVELOPING ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH WED
NGT...AND HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF THE DRY AIR FOR WED NGT TO
REFLECT THIS.
TEMPS WED WILL ONCE AGAIN HINGE UPON CLOUD COVER. SFC WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE NORTHERLY...BACKING AND DIMINISHING TO NEARLY CALM LATE WED
NGT. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING...HAVE TRIMMED
TEMPS BACK TO ARND 70/LOW 70S. BUT CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH...AND COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WED.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THUR...WITH
FLOW QUICKLY TURNING SOUTH AND ADVECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO
THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING PASSING WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THUR...EXPECT THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THUR NGT TO BE RATHER QUIET. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE LOW COVERAGE AND NOT STRONG AT THIS
TIME GIVEN SUCH A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THEN DRY AIR RETURNS THUR
NGT AND WILL PERSIST THRU SAT NGT AS BROAD SFC RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE REGION. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...IT DOES APPEAR SOME
CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ENSEMBLES
ARE LEANING TOWARDS BROAD TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
AND ALLOWING FOR SOME AMPLIFICATIONS TO A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FOR THE
GREAT LAKES SUN/MON. FLOW SHUD TURN SOUTHERLY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 80S. IN
ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* VARIABLE NORTH TO EAST WINDS...SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
* ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING WITH MORE PREVAILING -SHRA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
* VFR CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IFR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ/DEUBELBEISS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WHILE A LARGE SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING BUT WITH THE FORCING LOST AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...DO EXPECT
THIS PRECIP TO BE LIGHT WITH AN OVERALL DRY TREND TOWARDS MID DAY.
VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY AS MVFR/IFR WILL
REMAIN TIED CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM
DRAWS NEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT MORE
PREVAILING SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS AND PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING
REFLECTS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND WITH
THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION IN THE
TAFS. HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING OVERHEAD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR CEILINGS REMAINING.
NOT CONFIDENT WITH EXACT TIMING NOR DURATION OF THIS IFR POTENTIAL
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL WHICH COULD BE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TIME FRAME ON WEDNESDAY. A STEADY UPWARD TREND IN SPEEDS
AND THEN GUSTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH 10KT OR HIGHER
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA AND TIMING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH
TIMING...LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR.
RODRIGUEZ/DEUBELBEISS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA EXITING DURING EVENING.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS RESULTING
IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE...WITH
THIS DIRECTION REMAINING TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE MORE TOWARDS THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE. A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY KEEP THESE SPEEDS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
Latest surface map shows an elongated low pressure area from near
Columbia MO southwest into northwest Arkansas, with a warm front
arcing northeast roughly near I-70. Initial band of deformation
rain has mostly shifted north out of the CWA, but some patchy
showers/drizzle continue to the south. Latest HRRR had the general
trends down, and show an additional surge of showers northward
into the southeast CWA toward midday as the front lifts north. The
orientation of the front will become more tilted along the I-57
corridor as the afternoon progresses, with additional showers
spreading across the remainder of the CWA during the afternoon.
CAPE`s not especially impressive, but expected to rise into the
500-800 J/kg range, supportive of some thunder in most areas.
Currently think the far northwest CWA has a minimal threat, so
have removed the thunder mention in that area, and adjusted the
timing elsewhere to concentrate it more in the afternoon.
Have also made some adjustments to temperatures, primarily across
the northwest half of the CWA. Currently only in the lower 60s
northwest of Peoria, and the main surge of warmer air will be
further southeast today. Have lowered high temperatures a few
degrees across the northwest, closer to the LAMP guidance. Made
some adjustments to hourly trends in the southeast, but kept highs
close to where they were.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
Rain has moved into the area and is effecting all TAF sites this
morning. However, there is back edge to the pcpn that has moved
through SPI and will at DEC shortly. So have started these two off
with VCSH and have TEMPO group for lower category. Back edge of
pcpn will move through all other sites later this morning and have
done the same giving 3-4hr TEMPO groups at PIA/BMI/CMI. As the
lower pressure area system gets closer to the area and begins to move
through, more showers will develop in the warmer sector and could
possibly see a thunderstorm. So for later this afternoon and into
this evening, will have showers with VCTS at all sites. Once that
wanes this evening, pcpn will just be rain. Cigs and vis will
remain MVFR or lower through the period with rain and the frontal
boundary being close to or in the area. So will have MVFR and/or
IFR conditions most of the TAF period. Pcpn could end around
05-06z so have indicated this in all TAFs. However, cigs and vis
will remain low and will continue cigs below 1KFT overnight. Winds
will be easterly to start at 10-15kts but then become southeast to
south at SPI/DEC/CMI as the low gets closer and the front makes a
little bit of a north move. PIA and BMI will be north of the
front, so winds will easterly and then become northeasterly as the
low tracks into the area.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
07z/2am radar imagery shows initial band of light rain associated
with approaching upper low lifting slowly northward across central
Illinois, with the northern edge of the rain extending along a
Rantoul to Macomb line. Air mass sampled by both the KILX and KDVN
evening upper air soundings was quite dry, so precipitation has
been slow to spread northward. As air mass slowly moistens, rain
will eventually reach the far northern KILX CWA around Galesburg
and Lacon by daybreak. Additional showers will develop across the
area throughout the day, as warm/moist air flows northward from
the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the system. Forecast soundings
indicate only weak elevated instability later this morning into
the afternoon, suggesting mainly showers with perhaps a few
isolated thunderstorms. Better instability will be found further
southeast across Kentucky and Tennessee where a slight risk for
severe weather is in place. Due to extensive cloud cover and
occasional showers, high temperatures today will be held in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Upper low will track from northeast Oklahoma early this morning
into north-central Illinois by Wednesday morning. While a mid-level
dry slot may tend to work into southeast Illinois tonight thus
reducing rain chances there, deformation zone precip will likely
be concentrated along/west of I-55. Will continue to carry likely
PoPs through tonight before gradually dropping to chance PoPs on
Wednesday. All model solutions show the low E/NE of Illinois by
00z Thu, so will bring the rain chances to an end Wednesday night.
Based on the latest projections, additional rainfall with this
system between now and Wednesday afternoon will generally be
between half an inch and one inch, with a corridor of heavier
rainfall in excess of 1 inch along/near the I-55 corridor.
Once the upper low exits, the next system will quickly come into
the picture on Thursday as a northern stream wave tracks through
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Weak cold front will push
into central Illinois Thursday afternoon/evening, potentially
triggering a few showers/storms. Think this system will have
limited moisture to work with, so will only mention low chance
PoPs as the boundary passes. Otherwise, Thursday will be a partly
sunny and warm day with highs in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
High pressure will build into the Midwest behind the departing
front for Friday, providing cooler and less humid conditions. High
temperatures will remain in the 70s, while overnight lows dip into
the middle to upper 50s. As the high slides off to the east,
warmer and more humid air mass will return early next week. Models
are showing an upper ridge building across the eastern CONUS with
an approaching frontal boundary losing eastward momentum as it
becomes parallel with the upper flow. Consensus brings scattered
showers/storms into west-central Illinois on Sunday, then further
east across the entire area Sunday night into Monday. Do not think
this will be a wash-out by any means, as upper heights will be
rising and boundary will be dissipating. Main weather story early
next week will be the very warm/humid conditions, as highs rise
into the middle to upper 80s and dew points climb well into the
60s.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
349 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
248 AM CDT
TODAY...
FOCUS TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE...AS GUIDANCE
HAS MAINTAINED SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. EARLY THIS MORNING THE
DRY AIR OVER NORTHEAST IL REMAINS IN PLACE...AS DEW POINTS HAVE HELD
IN THE LOW/MID 40S. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS/DEW PTS HAVE RISEN TO ARND 60. THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ONTARIO...WITH THE SFC LOW ANALYZED OVER THE OZARKS. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO TIGHTEN...AND CONTINUE TO FILTER THE DRIER
AIR INTO NORTHEAST IL THRU THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING CLEARLY SHOWS THIS...AS THE CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO THIN.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIP...THERE
IS AGREEMENT THAT THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN CWFA BY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE IN THE LLVL MOISTURE...WITH
PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 1.5-1.75" MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IN/OH AND SLOWLY SEEP WEST INTO NORTHEAST
IL. LOCAL ARW8KM SUGGESTS THE BEST TIMING FOR COVERAGE/PRECIP
ARRIVING NORTH OF I-80 WILL LIKELY BE AFT 20Z...AND THE MOST RECENT
CYCLES WOULD SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE GIVEN SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID THE LLVL MOISTURE
AND DRY AIR OVER LOWER MI WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW AS WELL...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN
400J/KG AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION THE PRECIP
CHALLENGES...TEMPS WILL EQUALLY BE TOUGH TODAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER SHIELDING THE DIRECT LIGHT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO WARM AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO GENERALLY ARND 70 TO
LOW 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN
NORTHEAST IL AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
500MB CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO TRANSITION BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE EARLY
WED MORNING. REMNANTS FROM THE SFC RIDGE CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN POSE CHALLENGES TO THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST CWFA...AND COULD SEE THIS NEEDING TO BE
FURTHER ADJUSTED/FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTHEAST. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. HI-RES LOCAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS
EVEN LESS COVERAGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD...WITH THE OPER NAM TRENDING
IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. HAVE BROUGHT QPF TOTALS DOWN
FURTHER...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA. IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT BY MIDDAY WED THE PRECIP COULD BE ENDING IN THE
WESTERN CWFA...AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PIVOTS EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING SFC RIDGING DEVELOPING ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH WED
NGT...AND HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF THE DRY AIR FOR WED NGT TO
REFLECT THIS.
TEMPS WED WILL ONCE AGAIN HINGE UPON CLOUD COVER. SFC WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE NORTHERLY...BACKING AND DIMINISHING TO NEARLY CALM LATE WED
NGT. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING...HAVE TRIMMED
TEMPS BACK TO ARND 70/LOW 70S. BUT CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH...AND COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WED.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THUR...WITH
FLOW QUICKLY TURNING SOUTH AND ADVECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO
THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING PASSING WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THUR...EXPECT THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THUR NGT TO BE RATHER QUIET. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE LOW COVERAGE AND NOT STRONG AT THIS
TIME GIVEN SUCH A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THEN DRY AIR RETURNS THUR
NGT AND WILL PERSIST THRU SAT NGT AS BROAD SFC RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE REGION. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...IT DOES APPEAR SOME
CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ENSEMBLES
ARE LEANING TOWARDS BROAD TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
AND ALLOWING FOR SOME AMPLIFICATIONS TO A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FOR THE
GREAT LAKES SUN/MON. FLOW SHUD TURN SOUTHERLY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 80S. IN
ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS...SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASING BY MID DAY.
* ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING WITH MORE PREVAILING -SHRA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
* VFR CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
QUIET OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTING AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A SLOW BUT STEADY
PROGRESSION NORTH WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH THE PREVAILING SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS EARLY EVENING...BUT WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PERIOD TO BE AN
OVERALL WET PERIOD BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY. NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY MORE TOWARDS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS BETTER MOISTURE AND PRECIP SHIELD MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...DO EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN LOWERING. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE LOW MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR RANGE WILL MOVE
NORTH OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS BECOMING LIKELY BY MID DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA AND TIMING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH
TIMING...LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS RESULTING
IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE...WITH
THIS DIRECTION REMAINING TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE MORE TOWARDS THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE. A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY KEEP THESE SPEEDS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
313 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
07z/2am radar imagery shows initial band of light rain associated
with approaching upper low lifting slowly northward across central
Illinois, with the northern edge of the rain extending along a
Rantoul to Macomb line. Airmass sampled by both the KILX and KDVN
evening upper air soundings was quite dry, so precipitation has
been slow to spread northward. As airmass slowly moistens, rain
will eventually reach the far northern KILX CWA around Galesburg
and Lacon by daybreak. Additional showers will develop across the
area throughout the day, as warm/moist air flows northward from
the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the system. Forecast soundings
indicate only weak elevated instability later this morning into
the afternoon, suggesting mainly showers with perhaps a few
isolated thunderstorms. Better instability will be found further
southeast across Kentucky and Tennessee where a slight risk for
severe weather is in place. Due to extensive cloud cover and
occasional showers, high temperatures today will be held in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Upper low will track from northeast Oklahoma early this morning
into north-central Illinois by Wednesday morning. While a mid-level
dry slot may tend to work into southeast Illinois tonight thus
reducing rain chances there, deformation zone precip will likely
be concentrated along/west of I-55. Will continue to carry likely
POPs through tonight before gradually dropping to chance POPs on
Wednesday. All model solutions show the low E/NE of Illinois by
00z Thu, so will bring the rain chances to an end Wednesday night.
Based on the latest projections, additional rainfall with this
system between now and Wednesday afternoon will generally be
between half an inch and one inch, with a corridor of heavier
rainfall in excess of 1 inch along/near the I-55 corridor.
Once the upper low exits, the next system will quickly come into
the picture on Thursday as a northern stream wave tracks through
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Weak cold front will push
into central Illinois Thursday afternoon/evening, potentially
triggering a few showers/storms. Think this system will have
limited moisture to work with, so will only mention low chance
POPs as the boundary passes. Otherwise, Thursday will be a partly
sunny and warm day with highs in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
High pressure will build into the Midwest behind the departing
front for Friday, providing cooler and less humid conditions. High
temperatures will remain in the 70s, while overnight lows dip into
the middle to upper 50s. As the high slides off to the east,
warmer and more humid airmass will return early next week. Models
are showing an upper ridge building across the eastern CONUS with
an approaching frontal boundary losing eastward momentum as it
becomes parallel with the upper flow. Consensus brings scattered
showers/storms into west-central Illinois on Sunday, then further
east across the entire area Sunday night into Monday. Do not think
this will be a wash-out by any means, as upper heights will be
rising and boundary will be dissipating. Main weather story early
next week will be the very warm/humid conditions, as highs rise
into the middle to upper 80s and dewpoints climb well into the
60s.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
A wet period ahead the next 24 hours across the central IL airports.
Will lean on RAP and NAM models for this forecast. Light rain
around SPI and DEC with vsbys still at 10 miles will spread
northward to CMI in next hour and BMI and PIA between 08-09Z. VFR
conditions the next few hours with MVFR vsbys and ceilings
developing from south to north later tonight into Tue morning with
moderate rain at times. 1004 mb low pressure over ne OK with a
warm front over southern MO into the southern tip of IL and sw KY
will lift ne into southeast IL Tue and Tue night and bring the
widespread rain showers along with isolated thunderstorms Tue
afternoon with the rain heavier along I-72 TAF sites. Winds mainly
east to ENE next 24 hours at 6-12 kts and strongest during the day
Tue.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1256 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
908 PM CDT
GOING FORECAST LARGELY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. COUPLE SHOWERS
DID POP ON THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LONG SINCE MET
THEIR DEMISE. LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NORTHEAST TOWARD US. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING IN THE
LARGE DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN INCHING NORTHWARD...SO BIGGEST
CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WILL BE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS
FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS LITTLE DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS PRECIP SO
REALLY JUST ANTICIPATE PLAIN OLD RAIN WITH LITTLE OR NO THUNDER
THREAT.
IZZI
//PREV DISCUSSION...
301 PM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL WAVES ARE
FOUND FROM OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH ARE MOVING EASTWARD.
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW IS A SOUTHWESTERLY STREAM OF MOIST FLOW
WHICH IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO NORTHERN
OHIO. TO THE NORTHWEST...A TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALBERTA WITH SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LINED UP TO THE WEST OVER THE
PACIFIC. IN ADDITION...A BROAD LOW IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND THIS CUTOFF
WILL INTERACT LATER IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND OVER THE CONUS
AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOCALLY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC BACK ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA ON ITS
SOUTHWEST FLANK. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER LOW IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ALBERTA.
TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FLUX...THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA INLAND OF THE
LAKE. RADAR SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WHICH ARE MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
FADE WITH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR ROGUE SHOWER IN THE
FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION REMAINS SLOW. EXPECT THAT TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BROAD
SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BUT THIS LOOKS WEAK
AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY THERMAL ADVECTION TO PROVIDE ADDED
SUPPORT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE TROUBLE
HANDLING THE PRECIP TRENDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY DUE IN
PART TO THE HANDLING OF DRIER AIR ENTRAINED FROM THE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER LOW AND A DRY SLOT WRAPPING
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST FORCING WILL PUSH NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LIKELY REACHING SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING
BUT TAKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVEN EARLY EVENING TO REACH AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THEN IT BECOMES A MATTER OF
HOW WELL ORGANIZED RAIN REMAINS AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS BY
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SO FORCING WOULD
PRESUMABLY WEAKEN LEADING TO A DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FORCING DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATE IN THE
DAY. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS BETTER
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES IN AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOTAL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
AIR AT VARIOUS TIMES AND THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF BEST ORGANIZED
FORCING. THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVERALL WITH A BROADER AREA AFFECTED BY MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE NORTHWEST CWA LOOKS TO
RECEIVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN. HIGHS TUESDAY MAY BE COOLEST SOUTH
PROVIDED RAIN STARTS IN THE MORNING...WITH NORTHERN AREAS REMAINING
DRY ENOUGH TO WARM UP...POTENTIALLY TO NEAR THE HIGHS OF TODAY. THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OFF THE LAKE SO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WEDNESDAY
AND LIKELY BE PRECIP DEPENDENT. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO IF PRECIP REMAINS SCATTERED AND
EVEN ENDS LATER IN THE DAY THEN HIGHS MAY WELL REBOUND INTO THE MID
OR EVEN UPPER 70S...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ONCE
AGAIN.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND THEN
LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO TAKING A SURFACE LOW WITH IT. A
COOL FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW AND BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA SOME
TIME THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF PHASING WITH
A WEAK TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...WHICH WILL BE WHATS LEFT OF
THE CUTOFF OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS MAY YIELD A BETTER PRECIP
CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS VARIED ON THE DETAILS BUT WITH
THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND TRACKING NORTHEAST THE FRONT WOULD
LIKELY BE PRETTY STRETCHED OUT SUPPORTING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MAY PHASE
WITH ENERGY EJECTING FROM A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWING A DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A STEADY WARMING TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY TO THE LOWER
80S BY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER FRIDAY AND TO A LESSER DEGREE SATURDAY.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS...SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASING BY MID DAY.
* ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING WITH MORE PREVAILING -SHRA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
* VFR CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
QUIET OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTING AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A SLOW BUT STEADY
PROGRESSION NORTH WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH THE PREVAILING SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS EARLY EVENING...BUT WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PERIOD TO BE AN
OVERALL WET PERIOD BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY. NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY MORE TOWARDS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS BETTER MOISTURE AND PRECIP SHIELD MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...DO EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN LOWERING. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE LOW MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR RANGE WILL MOVE
NORTH OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS BECOMING LIKELY BY MID DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA AND TIMING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH
TIMING...LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
219 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS
WILL GENERICALLY BE 10-15 KT BUT WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PASSES TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH THURSDAY AND THEN TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS BECOME EAST AGAIN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY AND WINDS BECOME
SOUTH AND REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
Will update the forecast tonight with rain moving in quicker and
already into our sw counties at mid evening as far ne as a Winchester
to Springfield to Shelbyville to Effingham line and lifting northward.
1003 mb low pressure along the OK/KS border with warm front extending
eastward into sw MO and central TN. Isentropic lift ahead of warm
front will develop light to moderate rain northward across central
IL late this evening and overnight. Leaned on the HRRR and RAP
models for timing this rain. SPC day1 outlook for tonight has risk
of thunder tonight sw of a Quincy to Decatur to Terre Haute line
and may need to added isolated thunder overight in sw CWA.
Otherwise rest of forecast looks good tonight with lows mostly in
the lower 60s with ENE winds near 10 mph or less.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
A wet period ahead the next 24 hours across the central IL airports.
Will lean on RAP and NAM models for this forecast. Light rain
around SPI and DEC with vsbys still at 10 miles will spread
northward to CMI in next hour and BMI and PIA between 08-09Z. VFR
conditions the next few hours with MVFR vsbys and ceilings
developing from south to north later tonight into Tue morning with
moderate rain at times. 1004 mb low pressure over ne OK with a
warm front over southern MO into the southern tip of IL and sw KY
will lift ne into southeast IL Tue and Tue night and bring the
widespread rain showers along with isolated thunderstorms Tue
afternoon with the rain heavier along I-72 TAF sites. Winds mainly
east to ENE next 24 hours at 6-12 kts and strongest during the day
Tue.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
Shower chances will highlight this forecast, as a long wave trough
slowly advances from the Plains across the mid-Mississippi River
Valley through Wednesday night. A fast moving front will increase
shower chances again later Thursday and Thursday night before high
pressure provides a break from the rain through much of next
weekend.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night.
Satellite and radar images show a well-defined low pressure system
moving across S Kansas/N Oklahoma. An elongated region of
isentropic lift ahead of the low is creating enhanced mid level
cloud cover as far east as Ohio, which includes the southern half
of Illinois. Radar returns over our southern counties is not
reaching the ground due to a dry sub-cloud airmass. Gradual
saturation of the boundary layer will continue this evening, with
showers becoming likely after midnight south of Springfield to
Mattoon. The HRRR and NCEP 4km WRF show a band of showers/storms
affecting our southern counties after midnight tonight, so we
bumped up PoPs to categorical in the southern third of our
forecast area late tonight. It appears the band will progress
northward on Tuesday with a dry period developing from south to
north behind the band. There should be enough residual moisture
that a couple of additional showers could develop during the day
even where rain may end for a time in the morning. We tried to add
some detail to the PoPs on Tuesday to follow that band of rain
with categorical PoPs, and likely PoPs bordering the band.
The occluded low is projected to move into southern IL Tuesday
night, with waves of dry air wrapped into the low. That should
help to limit showers in the southeast half of our forecast area
later Tuesday night as diurnal stabilization helps decrease
updrafts. The coverage and timing of precip Tues night remains
problematic directly under the low center, but likely PoPs were
left over a majority of the area for now.
Wednesday will see showery precip linger in at least the eastern
half of IL as the low pressure system begins to depart into
Indiana. The trough axis is projected to reach the Indiana border
toward 00z/7pm, so subsidence should become more prominent west of
I-55 as the day progresses.
Wed night and Thursday could end up being a dry period before a
cold front triggers the next round of showers/storms later Thurs
afternoon and Thur night. Ridging is projected to develop during
Wed night and Thursday with somewhat drier and warmer air. Thursdays
highs may even have enough help from sunshine to reach the low
80s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday.
Dry and warmer weather is forecast for Friday into Sunday as an
upper level ridge and surface high pressure take control of the
weather in the region. Highs may remain in the upper 70s Friday
but should warm to the low 80s Sat and Sunday. A weather
disturbance previously indicated for Sunday in yesterdays models
has been delayed by both of today`s 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF.
Increasing chances of rain/storms appears in both of those models
starting Sunday night west of I-55 and expanding eastward on
Monday. Chance PoPs were included in both those periods to account
for the trends in model consensus.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1100 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2014
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level shortwave trough pushing eastward across the Western High
Plains. Meanwhile, a weak upper level ridge of high pressure is
transitioning eastward across the Intermountain West. Near the
surface, a cold front is shifting southeastward out of western
into central Kansas. Ample low level moisture lingers across
western Kansas behind a departing cold front with observed
surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s(F).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
A surface cold front extended from eastern South Dakota to near
Sidney, Nebraska slowly moving south through the Northern High
Plains. An are of relative low pressure was developing over
southeast Colorado with an attendant inverted surface trough
extending northward toward the cold front. Regional WSR88D composite
reflectivity was already showing clusters of surface based
thunderstorms developing off the Palmer Divide as well as the Sangre
de Cristo regions in Colorado. Ahead of the frontal boundary,
southerly winds were in place with surface dew points in the upper
50s to around 60 degrees across the eastern Counties. Drier air
existed west of Highway 83 where dew points were in the mid 40s but
increasing.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
All of the morning NMM/ARW and NAM models in addition to several
runs of the HRRR indicate high confidence in convection developing
early this evening and spreading rapidly eastward into central
Kansas as a QLCS. Models indicate a marked in increase in layer
precipitable water through the late afternoon and evening, with
SREF QPF values in excess of an inch. MUCAPES around 2000 J/KG in
early afternoon were also forecast to increase to in excess of 3000
J/kg. This pre-storm environment thermodynamic in combination with
ample 30 knots of deep bulk shear will be conducive to gaining a
high confidence in a few rotating updrafts initially in our
northwest counties or basically anywhere from around Kearny county
through Scott City and Dighton. These hail producers will quickly
develop a cold pool generating widespread slab-like convection
eastward into central Kansas though mid evening with damaging wind
the highest threat followed by potential for hail and flooding from
very heavy rainfall. This morning`s flash flood guidance for 3 hours
was as low as 2 inches across portions of the area still outlined by
a flood watch, which will make flooding to occur easily in some of
the areas that have had in excess of 400% of normal rainfall in the
last week or more.
Beyond this evening`s high probability convection episode, north
surface winds will develop behind the convection as the front is
forced southward. Models have indicated potential for showers and
probably elevated storms continuing into in the far south east areas
into the early daylight hours on Thursday. Much cooler conditions
ion cool advection are expected Thursday afternoon with highs
struggling through the 70s in most locations.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening bringing MVFR
conditions to the terminals. Otherwise expected increasing mid
level clouds as the evening progresses with mostly cloudy skies
overnight. Clear skies are then expected by sunrise tomorrow
morning. Winds will generally be from the south over the next
couple of hours shifting to more of a northerly direction behind a
strong cold front. Breezy conditions are expected overnight with
sustained winds around 20 knots with gusts around 30 knots at
times.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 78 55 83 / 90 10 0 0
GCK 57 77 55 85 / 60 10 0 10
EHA 58 78 58 88 / 40 10 0 10
LBL 58 79 57 87 / 60 10 0 0
HYS 58 77 53 83 / 90 10 0 0
P28 64 80 57 84 / 90 40 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
063>066-077>081.
FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-066-
079>081.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
846 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
GRIDS AND ZONES WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY FOR THE CANCELLATION OF
THE REMAINDER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE ADDITION OF GOVE COUNTY TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282. ALSO UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON
WORDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS BEING SEVERE. A COLD FRONT OVER
NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AS
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE...AND THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX...SO USED THIS ALONG WITH
NAM AND SREF FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. DEBATED ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT INDICATE ANY FOG AND
JUST HINTED AT LOW STRATUS. THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE
ABLE TO GET A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THAT SITUATION LATER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO UPPER
50S EAST.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA AND SLIDE SOUTH AND THEN EAST. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A
FEW LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE
TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.
AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE NOT DOING WELL. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTH
CENTRAL UPPER TROUGH. THIS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY BUT IS WORSE
TODAY. OVERALL THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE SREF
LOOKED TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE
AND WIND FIELD. THE GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN...SREF TENDED TO DO THE
BEST WITH THE NAM TOO WARM AND THE UKMET TOO COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHOWN YESTERDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE AMOUNT OF CINH. THE NAM
HAS AREA FULLY CAPPED WITH THE GFS LEAVING OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURRING. THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPORT KEEPING THE AIR MASS CAPPED. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY BUT WILL
BEAR WATCHING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LARGE PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS HAVE COME UP ON THEIR SPEEDS WITH
NEAR TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WESTERN HALF FOR MOST
OF THE DAY INTO EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAMPED THE WINDS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
MAIN SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BUT WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SHARPENING DRY LINE IS SETTING
UP NEAR TO OR JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTABILITY AXIS AND
MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO SETS IN THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE CINH IN THIS
AREA. SO ADD A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE
MAXES WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR TO TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE NIGHT. MODELS DO DEVELOP A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THIS PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT ARE TALKED ABOUT IN THE NEXT
PERIOD START SHOWING UP HERE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE OUTPUT LOOKING TO BE AFFECTING BY
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. ESSENTIALLY THE WEST TO NORTHWEST HALF LOOKS TO
HAVE A RIGHT RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECT THIS AREA FROM LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. FRONT
IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THAT
IN ADVANCE OF IT THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE SURGES SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY LOW DEWPOINTS EXCEPT RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THE EML AND THE SURFACE DRY LINE IS LOCATED. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT PROFILE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREAS. SO CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL GET HOT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER
THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO EXPANDED. CURRENTLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WILL
HAVE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES. IF THE FUELS WERE FAVORABLE THE WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY BECOMES GREATER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ESSENTIALLY
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SAME IDEA BUT DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. BUT
ESSENTIALLY NO MATTER WHICH WAY YOU WANT TO GO...OUTPUT SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED ACTIVE/WET PATTERN.
THE ONE TENDENCY THAT THE ENSEMBLES LOOK TO BE TRENDING TOWARD IS A
MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW...SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG/FAR SOUTH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A SLOWER AND
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WHICH TENDS TO SUPPORT THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION.
OVERALL THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT THE LATEST CRH_INIT RUN
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY REMAINS DRY WHILE THE AIR MASS RELOADS LATER
THAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT. THIS
FRONT THEN REMAINS EITHER NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AREA OR WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A NEW
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRING THROUGH SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND JET LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS.
THAT COMBINED WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH THE QPF FIELDS INDICATING A MCS IN EACH OF THESE
NIGHTTIME PERIODS. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 446 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL IMPACT KGLD NEAR 00Z.
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO KMCK IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE STORMS
PASS THROUGH STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES TOWARD SUNRISE.
STRATUS WILL BREAK UP BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
639 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
A surface cold front extended from eastern South Dakota to near
Sidney, Nebraska slowly moving south through the Northern High
Plains. An are of relative low pressure was developing over
southeast Colorado with an attendant inverted surface trough
extending northward toward the cold front. Regional WSR88D composite
reflectivity was already showing clusters of surface based
thunderstorms developing off the Palmer Divide as well as the Sangre
de Cristo regions in Colorado. Ahead of the frontal boundary,
southerly winds were in place with surface dew points in the upper
50s to around 60 degrees across the eastern Counties. Drier air
existed west of Highway 83 where dew points were in the mid 40s but
increasing.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
All of the morning NMM/ARW and NAM models in addition to several
runs of the HRRR indicate high confidence in convection developing
early this evening and spreading rapidly eastward into central
Kansas as a QLCS. Models indicate a marked in increase in layer
precipitable water through the late afternoon and evening, with
SREF QPF values in excess of an inch. MUCAPES around 2000 J/KG in
early afternoon were also forecast to increase to in excess of 3000
J/kg. This pre-storm environment thermodynamic in combination with
ample 30 knots of deep bulk shear will be conducive to gaining a
high confidence in a few rotating updrafts initially in our
northwest counties or basically anywhere from around Kearny county
through Scott City and Dighton. These hail producers will quickly
develop a cold pool generating widespread slab-like convection
eastward into central Kansas though mid evening with damaging wind
the highest threat followed by potential for hail and flooding from
very heavy rainfall. This morning`s flash flood guidance for 3 hours
was as low as 2 inches across portions of the area still outlined by
a flood watch, which will make flooding to occur easily in some of
the areas that have had in excess of 400% of normal rainfall in the
last week or more.
Beyond this evening`s high probability convection episode, north
surface winds will develop behind the convection as the front is
forced southward. Models have indicated potential for showers and
probably elevated storms continuing into in the far south east areas
into the early daylight hours on Thursday. Much cooler conditions
ion cool advection are expected Thursday afternoon with highs
struggling through the 70s in most locations.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening bringing MVFR
conditions to the terminals. Otherwise expected increasing mid
level clouds as the evening progresses with mostly cloudy skies
overnight. Clear skies are then expected by sunrise tomorrow
morning. Winds will generally be from the south over the next
couple of hours shifting to more of a northerly direction behind a
strong cold front. Breezy conditions are expected overnight with
sustained winds around 20 knots with gusts around 30 knots at
times.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 78 55 83 / 90 10 0 0
GCK 57 77 55 85 / 60 10 0 10
EHA 58 78 58 88 / 40 10 0 10
LBL 58 79 57 87 / 60 10 0 0
HYS 58 77 53 83 / 90 10 0 0
P28 64 80 57 84 / 90 40 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday morning
FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-066-079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE ADDITION OF GOVE COUNTY TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282. ALSO UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON
WORDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS BEING SEVERE. A COLD FRONT OVER
NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AS
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE...AND THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX...SO USED THIS ALONG WITH
NAM AND SREF FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. DEBATED ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT INDICATE ANY FOG AND
JUST HINTED AT LOW STRATUS. THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE
ABLE TO GET A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THAT SITUATION LATER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO UPPER
50S EAST.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA AND SLIDE SOUTH AND THEN EAST. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A
FEW LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE
TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.
AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE NOT DOING WELL. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTH
CENTRAL UPPER TROUGH. THIS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY BUT IS WORSE
TODAY. OVERALL THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE SREF
LOOKED TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE
AND WIND FIELD. THE GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN...SREF TENDED TO DO THE
BEST WITH THE NAM TOO WARM AND THE UKMET TOO COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHOWN YESTERDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE AMOUNT OF CINH. THE NAM
HAS AREA FULLY CAPPED WITH THE GFS LEAVING OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURRING. THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPORT KEEPING THE AIR MASS CAPPED. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY BUT WILL
BEAR WATCHING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LARGE PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS HAVE COME UP ON THEIR SPEEDS WITH
NEAR TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WESTERN HALF FOR MOST
OF THE DAY INTO EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAMPED THE WINDS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
MAIN SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BUT WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SHARPENING DRY LINE IS SETTING
UP NEAR TO OR JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTABILITY AXIS AND
MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO SETS IN THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE CINH IN THIS
AREA. SO ADD A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE
MAXES WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR TO TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE NIGHT. MODELS DO DEVELOP A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THIS PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT ARE TALKED ABOUT IN THE NEXT
PERIOD START SHOWING UP HERE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE OUTPUT LOOKING TO BE AFFECTING BY
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. ESSENTIALLY THE WEST TO NORTHWEST HALF LOOKS TO
HAVE A RIGHT RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECT THIS AREA FROM LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. FRONT
IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THAT
IN ADVANCE OF IT THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE SURGES SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY LOW DEWPOINTS EXCEPT RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THE EML AND THE SURFACE DRY LINE IS LOCATED. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT PROFILE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREAS. SO CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL GET HOT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER
THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO EXPANDED. CURRENTLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WILL
HAVE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES. IF THE FUELS WERE FAVORABLE THE WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY BECOMES GREATER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ESSENTIALLY
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SAME IDEA BUT DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. BUT
ESSENTIALLY NO MATTER WHICH WAY YOU WANT TO GO...OUTPUT SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED ACTIVE/WET PATTERN.
THE ONE TENDENCY THAT THE ENSEMBLES LOOK TO BE TRENDING TOWARD IS A
MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW...SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG/FAR SOUTH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A SLOWER AND
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WHICH TENDS TO SUPPORT THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION.
OVERALL THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT THE LATEST CRH_INIT RUN
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY REMAINS DRY WHILE THE AIR MASS RELOADS LATER
THAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT. THIS
FRONT THEN REMAINS EITHER NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AREA OR WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A NEW
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRING THROUGH SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND JET LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS.
THAT COMBINED WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH THE QPF FIELDS INDICATING A MCS IN EACH OF THESE
NIGHTTIME PERIODS. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 446 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL IMPACT KGLD NEAR 00Z.
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO KMCK IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE STORMS
PASS THROUGH STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES TOWARD SUNRISE.
STRATUS WILL BREAK UP BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1219 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
As an upper low continues southeast out of Kansas into this
evening, we should see the areas of light rain over far western
Kansas continue to diminish. Areas generally east of Highway 283
will see areas of rain, possibly along with an isolated
thunderstorm, continuing into the evening hours. Precipitation
chances should come to an end along the Highway 281 corridor
around or shortly after midnight.
The latest RUC and NAM model output shows the strong 850 millibar
jet propagating out of far southwest Kansas by 6 or 7 pm and lining
up more along a Hays/Larned to Dodge City line. The current wind
advisory goes until 7 pm. Will let it go until expiration time as
winds should be diminishing around or shortly after then.
Tuesday should be mostly sunny and fairly mild as an upper level
ridge moves over the central Plains. High temperatures should top
out in the mid 80s over far southwest Kansas with highs nearing 80
in central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
Subsidence will dominate the region Tuesday night and into early
Wednesday. Mainly sunny and much warmer conditions are expected
heading into Wednesday late morning and afternoon with the
development of southerly winds and much drier boundary layer air
working downslope with time into far western Kansas. An upper jet
immediately south of the region will drag an attendant
disturbance/shortwave into the Central Plains Wednesday night. The
ECMWF/GFS and NAM all model impressive 850-700 mb moisture transport
ahead of this wave giving high probability of another MCS in some
form. Based on the different model solutions, it seems reasonable
discreet cells could form out of Colorado in the early or mid
evening with cold pool development occurring farther east.
probabilities for precipitation were increased to at least 50% in
the far west to "Likely" (60-70%) farther east. By Thursday morning,
cloudy conditions may linger for much if not all of the morning
behind a surface cold front/cold moist surface outflow air, which
various models have forecast not to exceed the upper 70s.
Deeper into the period, for Friday and through the weekend will
bring at least one additional chance for organized thunderstorms. By
Friday an upper ridge will begin to build back into the central
Plains returning prevailing southerlies to southwest Kansas. The GFS
overturns instability on Saturday which is not well supported by the
ECMWF. More model consensus falls of convective development returning
Saturday night as the main upper wave lifts into the Northern
Plains with it`s attendant upper jet streak diving into the the
Central Plains inducing surface pressure falls and left front exit
region forcing for large scale lift. These model solutions focus
deep moist convection mainly over the Interstate 70 corridor of our
forecast area for the likely areas for storms. The far southwest
remains far behind the dryline.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
An upper low and associated low cloud shield will move east
with skies clearing and northwest winds decreasing. VFR conditions
are expected today into tonight with light northwest winds becoming
light southeast by mid to late afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 91 59 80 / 0 10 70 10
GCK 59 92 59 80 / 0 10 60 10
EHA 59 91 60 81 / 0 10 50 10
LBL 58 94 60 81 / 0 10 50 10
HYS 57 87 60 78 / 0 10 70 10
P28 59 90 66 83 / 10 10 70 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1003 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTION W OF I-35 CORRIDOR IN TX AND
WHETHER IT OR AFFECT THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z NAM DID NOT
REALLY INITIALIZE WELL WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST
GFS IS SOMEWHAT BETTER. 00Z RUN OF THE HRRR DEPICTS THESE STORMS
MAKING A SERN TURN AND NOT AFFECTING THE CWA...WHILE AN MCS
ORGANIZES ACROSS SW KS/NW OK AND MOVES SEWD TO JUST NW OF THE AREA
BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR
THE HRRR. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
OUR FAR NW ZONES DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE OTHER GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST OBS BUT MIN TEMP FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014/
AVIATION...
DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/00Z TAF FORECAST...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT
WEATHER THROUGH 13/00Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT BECOMING MOSTLY
SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS ON THURSDAY. /14/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW ALOFT HAS BROUGHT MILD JUNE TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES
TO THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS A BIT DECEPTIVE. A
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RIDE EWD
AROUND THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND DOWN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS OUR WAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NEWD. SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE ON THE HORIZON AFTER FRIDAY.
TEMP-WISE...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUE TO STAY RIGHT ON-PAR WITH
SEASONAL NORMALS. RAINFALL/WET SOILS HAVE LIMITED TEMPS FROM
RATCHETING UP ABOVE NORMAL...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 91 72 88 70 / 10 20 60 40 10
MLU 66 90 71 87 68 / 10 20 60 50 20
DEQ 63 86 65 85 65 / 10 60 60 20 10
TXK 67 88 69 85 67 / 10 30 60 30 10
ELD 64 89 68 85 65 / 10 20 60 40 10
TYR 70 90 71 87 71 / 20 30 60 20 10
GGG 68 90 71 88 70 / 10 30 60 30 10
LFK 71 92 73 91 72 / 10 20 50 40 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
10/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
AREAS OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY VFR CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS PRODUCING A BKN BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA FM NEAR KSHV SW TO KUTS. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
REACH BPT/AEX BETWEEN 08Z-09Z AND LCH 09Z-10Z...WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO RECENT HRRR RUNS. SCT TO NUMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REACH THE ACADIANA TERMINALS
BY MID-MORNING TUES. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TUES AFTN INTO TUES EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWERED VISBYS/CIGS DURING
SHOWERS/STORMS. SLY WINDS WILL TREND MORE SWLY TUESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STALLED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK AS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE RE-DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS
LINING UP NICELY ALONG TAIL OF SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. ONLY
CHANGE TONIGHT WILL BE TO LOWER POPS UP TO 06Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 85 70 88 / 60 50 30 10
KBPT 74 86 71 91 / 60 60 20 10
KAEX 72 84 68 89 / 60 50 30 10
KLFT 76 85 72 88 / 40 60 40 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1143 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA MAY APPROACH THE KMCB AND KBTR TAF SITES AROUND 14 OR
15Z. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS HANDLED BY TEMPO GROUPS IN EACH OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. 11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING. BALLOON BURST 14 MILES
DOWNRANGE NORTHEAST IN THE BOGUE CHITTO NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE
JUST EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER WEST OF PICAYUNE AT AN ALTITUDE OF
20.3 MILES. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO 866 MB...THEN PSEUDO
WITH A BIT OF WARM LAYER TO 540 MB THOUGH NOT REALLY AN INVERSION
AND NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS PAST DAYS. TYPICAL INVERTED-V MOISTURE
PROFILE SURFACE TO 866 MB/ 4300 FT THEN SPREADING TO DRYNESS
ABOVE. WINDS WERE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY 10-35 KNOTS TO 30KFT BEFORE
BACKING TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO 33KFT...THEN SW-NW ABOVE. TROPOPAUSE
WAS AT 144MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -66.6C. PEAK WINDS WERE PRETTY
LOW...215/36KT AT ONLY 11.9KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS UP TO 1.66
INCHES...LIFTED INDEX -7...CAPE 2745 J/KG BUT HELICITY ONLY 40
M2/S2.
RAN CHAP ON THIS EVENING`S SOUNDING WITH 346K LIFT AT LFC/LCL
LEVEL OF 866MB YIELDED 53 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE...GUST POTENTIAL 28
KT WHICH WAS VERIFIED AT KMCB WITH A 28 KT REPORT IN CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. CHAP ON GFS 18Z RUN DOES SHOW A PEAK IN THREAT
MARGINALLY SEVERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10AM AND 1 PM TUESDAY. 24/RR
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF JUST WEST OF TAMPA.
STACKED UPPER/SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND EAST TEXAS. A LINE OF
BROKEN CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF MEMPHIS...TO
MONROE...TO HOUSTON AT 3 PM. ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT PRESENT...WITH MAIN CONVECTION ABOUT 100 MILES
WEST OF THE AREA. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. WINDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE MIDDLE 90S. DEW
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE.
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW OVER THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW BEFORE BEGINNING
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. NEVER REALLY HAVE A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LOCAL AREA
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NEAR THE WEST EDGE OF OUR CWA AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT HRRR AND 3KM WRF RUNS.
REDEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS THE WEST EDGE
OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS WILL BE UNCAPPED FOR THE MOST PART BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. SHOULD BE SOME DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN...AT LEAST EARLY
ON...TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS
ON TUESDAY. ABOUT THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. WILL BE CARRYING HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...DEFINITELY ABOVE 12Z
MAV POP GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO MET/ECMWF VALUES.
MAIN TROF AXIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
THREAT ACTUALLY OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO
CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THERE IS GOING TO BE A DRY DAY
THIS WEEK...IT WILL BE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES ON TUESDAY...IN THE MID 80S...AND IF RAIN OCCURS
MID TO LATE MORNING...THAT COULD STILL BE TOO WARM. SOME
MODERATION OCCURS WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD BE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY. 35
LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION THAT COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE TROF SLOWS ALONG THE COAST. WILL ONLY KEEP POPS IN THE 30
PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW...AS FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
STRONG. SUNDAY WILL BE DRIER AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
STILL COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
GENERALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. 35
AVIATION...
MONITORING THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
LOUISIANA...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BEGIN DISSIPATING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. AS A RESULT...KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z. AFTER
06Z...AN ELEVATED INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THIS INVERSION
WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK RANGING AROUND 1000 FEET TO
DEVELOP. THIS IFR AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND
14-15Z TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
THE INVERSION BEGINS TO MIX OUT. 32
MARINE...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO DOMINATE THE MARINE ZONES. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET. OVERALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE AREA. 32
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 84 69 85 / 40 60 40 40
BTR 73 85 71 88 / 40 50 40 30
ASD 75 86 73 86 / 30 50 50 40
MSY 76 86 74 86 / 20 50 50 40
GPT 77 86 74 86 / 20 40 50 50
PQL 74 86 74 85 / 20 30 50 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
504 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION AS SOME VISIBILITIES
REMAIN NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE IN SPOTS. NO OTHER CHANGES.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF
SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO ENTER EASTERN OHIO AND INTO WRN PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST. STILL CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL BOUNDARY WORKS NORTH WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG LINGER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY
INCREASING MID DECK AS FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUDS LOOK TO PUT A BIT
OF A LID ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PRODUCING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S
WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY NIGHTS WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS KEEPING DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST FOR FRIDAY PUSHING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AS MODELS
PUSH FRONT THROUGH REGION FIRST HALF OF DAY AND BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MAY BE OVER RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY SURFACE HIGH
THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND THEN BEGIN TO WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MODELS
POINTING AT AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME DUE
TO THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE PASSING THROUGH.
LATEST NAM/RAP RUNS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS MANY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTS. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
OUTCOME...WHILE THE RAP IS FOCUSING MAINLY OVER PORTS SOUTH AND WEST
OF PIT. FOR FORECAST...WILL GO WITH LIFR VIS FORECAST FOR HLG...MGW
AND LBE AND WILL NEED TO INCLUDE DUJ IN AS IT HAS ALREADY TANKED.
FOR THE REMAINING PORTS WILL HAVE IFR VIS DEVELOPING.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THEN AN AREA OF VFR MID-DECK WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL PORTS.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
305 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF
SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO ENTER EASTERN OHIO AND INTO WRN PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST. STILL CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL BOUNDARY WORKS NORTH WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG LINGER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY
INCREASING MID DECK AS FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUDS LOOK TO PUT A BIT
OF A LID ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PRODUCING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S
WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY NIGHTS WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS KEEPING DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST FOR FRIDAY PUSHING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AS MODELS
PUSH FRONT THROUGH REGION FIRST HALF OF DAY AND BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MAY BE OVER RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY SURFACE HIGH
THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND THEN BEGIN TO WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MODELS
POINTING AT AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME DUE
TO THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE PASSING THROUGH.
LATEST NAM/RAP RUNS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS MANY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTS. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
OUTCOME...WHILE THE RAP IS FOCUSING MAINLY OVER PORTS SOUTH AND WEST
OF PIT. FOR FORECAST...WILL GO WITH LIFR VIS FORECAST FOR HLG...MGW
AND LBE AND WILL NEED TO INCLUDE DUJ IN AS IT HAS ALREADY TANKED.
FOR THE REMAINING PORTS WILL HAVE IFR VIS DEVELOPING.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THEN AN AREA OF VFR MID-DECK WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL PORTS.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
146 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF
SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO ENTER EASTERN OHIO AND INTO WRN PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST. STILL CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL BOUNDARY WORKS NORTH WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG LINGER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY
INCREASING MID DECK AS FRONT APPROACHES. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PRODUCING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S
WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS KEEPING DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST FOR FRIDAY PUSHING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AS TIMING
STILL SUSPECT BUT MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING. DRY SURFACE HIGH THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN
FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND THEN WARM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MODELS
POINTING AT AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME DUE
TO THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE PASSING THROUGH.
LATEST NAM/RAP RUNS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS MANY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTS. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
OUTCOME...WHILE THE RAP IS FOCUSING MAINLY OVER PORTS SOUTH AND WEST
OF PIT. FOR FORECAST...WILL GO WITH LIFR VIS FORECAST FOR HLG...MGW
AND LBE AND WILL NEED TO INCLUDE DUJ IN AS IT HAS ALREADY TANKED.
FOR THE REMAINING PORTS WILL HAVE IFR VIS DEVELOPING.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THEN AN AREA OF VFR MID-DECK WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL PORTS.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
457 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NRN LAKES INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND LOWS LOCATED OVER SRN MO AND W CNTRL MANITOBA. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH OR TOWARD THE NRN
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR BRINGING LIGHT NE TO E WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH UPPER
MI WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP INLAND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH
FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND.
WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE HANDLING OF THE MO LOW
THAT LIFTS TOWARD SRN LOWER MI. THE ECMWF REMAINS FARTHER NW WTH THE
MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS/GEM
AND GRAZES THE ERN CWA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT WITH THE
SREF...THE FCST INCLUDES SOME LOWER END(20-30)POPS FOR MAINLY LUCE
COUNTY. THE NAM AND A FEW HIGHER RES MODELS ALSO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTIVE PCPN INTO THE FAR WEST. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH...PCPN WAS NOT MENTIONED. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR 13C...EXPECT MAX INLAND TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF TO AROUND
80...WHILE LAKE BREEZES KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE SET UP ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI AT 00Z
THURSDAY...STEMMING FROM THE WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH SET UP ACROSS
LOWER MI AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON AND THE 500MB SHORTWAVE LINGERING
ACROSS LAKE MI AND E UPPER MI. ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM A TRACE TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY EXIT NE THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM DIVES IN FROM
THE MAIN 500MB LOW SET UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY. WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL IN THE FCST FOR THURSDAY. WONDERING IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO
GET AS MUCH PRECIP AS BEING FCST OFF HPC /12Z/ WITH 0.25-0.33IN
12-18Z THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AND DIMINISHED THE AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY...STAYING WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE W HALF...AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THIS TYPE OF SFC LOW TRACK.
THE MAIN 500MB LOW STILL SPINNING TO OUR N WILL EXTEND A TROUGH DOWN
THROUGH W ONTARIO AND N MN AND WI BY 18Z THURSDAY...WHILE CLOSING
OFF. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES...WITH THE 12Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF BEING THE FARTHEST S OF THE BUNCH. THE MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY
BE THE SAME. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SWING ACROSS
THE CWA W-E THROUGH THE DAY...EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW SHIFTING
FROM NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY TO JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 18Z WHILE DEEPENING. THE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS POTENT
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
WITH STORM MOTION OF 20-25KTS...AND PW VALUES ONLY BRIEFLY TOPPING
OUT OVER 1IN...EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO BE MINIMAL. DRY AIR
WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL NEED TO
BE EDITED IN OUR FCST AS WE GET SOME BETTER TIMING FROM THE MODELS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES OVER THE LADDER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING
TO 1-3C FOR FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT WELL BELOW THE 70S THAT
ARE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST SPOT /S CENTRAL/ MAY
GET ABOVE 70F. WNW WINDS OF 10-15KT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
OTHERWISE...KEPT A MODEL BLEND GOING FOR MUCH OF DAYS 4-7. THIS
INCLUDED KEEPING THE E HALF OF UPPER MI DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS OVER
THE W HALF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WET WEATHER CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WITH HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE MARINE LAYER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF MODERATE WRLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NRN LAKES INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND LOWS LOCATED OVER SRN MO AND W CNTRL MANITOBA. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH OR TOWARD THE NRN
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR BRINGING LIGHT NE TO E WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH UPPER
MI WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP INLAND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH
FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND.
WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE HANDLING OF THE MO LOW
THAT LIFTS TOWARD SRN LOWER MI. THE ECMWF REMAINS FARTHER NW WTH THE
MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS/GEM
AND GRAZES THE ERN CWA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT WITH THE
SREF...THE FCST INCLUDES SOME LOWER END(20-30)POPS FOR MAINLY LUCE
COUNTY. THE NAM AND A FEW HIGHER RES MODELS ALSO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTIVE PCPN INTO THE FAR WEST. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH...PCPN WAS NOT MENTIONED. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR 13C...EXPECT MAX INLAND TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF TO AROUND
80...WHILE LAKE BREEZES KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ZONAL TO START THEN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED BY LATE
THIS WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER GULF OF ALASKA DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HEIGHTS SEE BRIEF BOUNCE UP ON SATURDAY
IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH GRAZES UPPER LAKES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE PATTERN APPEAR TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION ON WEDNESDAY IS ON UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TROUGH SPLITS INTO TWO SECTIONS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO HAVE THE
MORE PRONOUNCED H85 LOW AND SWATH OF MOISTURE TIED INTO IT. MAIN
QUESTION HAS BEEN...AND CONTINUES TO BE...HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE SFC
AND H85 LOWS WILL TRACK. ECMWF IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE SFC LOW
LIFTING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN PROBABLY OWING TO STRONGER SHORTWAVE.
ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN FOR FAR EASTERN CWA MAINLY WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. GFS AND GEM-NH ARE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
WITH THE H85 LOW AND KEEP EASTERN CWA MAINLY DRY. NAM ONLY SCRAPES
FAR EAST UPR MICHIGAN WITH ANY RAIN. CONTINUE TO LEAN ON CONSISTENT
ECMWF IDEA BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOWER CHANCE RANGE. EVEN THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SHOW SHARP CUTOFF TO RAIN AND EVEN CLOUDS FROM
EAST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS TO +13C OVER WEST RESULTS IN MAX
TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER INTERIOR WEST AWAY FM ANY LAKE BREEZE
COOLING. TEMPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY STAY IN
THE 60S.
ONCE THE LOW-LEVEL LOW EXITS NORTHEAST...ATTENTION QUICKLY SWITCHES
TO INCOMING STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TROUGH TRENDING SHARPER OVER
LAST TWO DAYS AND THERE IS OKAY AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
WORK OUT. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND
THANKS TO SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK DIGGING INTO WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT TROUGH TO FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO LK
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE SWIFT MOVING
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING WSW TO ENE AS LEADING SHORTWAVE/H5 TEMPS
DOWN TO -16C CROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE SHARP COLD POCKET ALOFT/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER 40 KTS AND WBZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 10KFT...PROBABLY
NOT A STRETCH TO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS
THAT OCCUR LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTN. WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME.
DRY SLOT THEN QUICKLY ARRIVES AS LOW BECOMES VERY WRAPPED UP...SO
COULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND TO SHRA/TSRA IN THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTN AND IN THE CNTRL AND EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. THEN
TIGHT/CYCLONIC SFC-H85 FLOW IN WAKE OF COMPACT SFC LOW COMBINES WITH
COLD/MOIST ADVECTION TO GENERATE SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
CWA LATER THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY ENHANCED
FURTHER BY LIFTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. AT LEAST SOME LGT
SHOWERS OR RAIN COULD LINGER OVER SIMILAR AREAS ON FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE ECMWF SHOWS SHARP DRYING IN THE H85-H7 LAYER ON FRIDAY AFTN.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION /H85
TEMPS DOWN TO +2C/ WILL LEAD TO CHILLY FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF CWA. TEMPS
ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 60 DEGREES... WHILE
INLAND TEMPS STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S. SOME SPOTS WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
LINGERS ALL DAY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NOW FLATTER...
ALLOWING FOR QUICKER RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP ON
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE OVER WESTERN CWA BUT
BY SUNDAY EXPECT GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AS MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO BEGIN BUT BY
SUNDAY...WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGHER ML DWPNTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
MLCAPES INCREASE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF TSRA.
QUESTIONS STILL THERE ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION CAN OCCUR...BUT WITH
INCREASING DEEPER LAYER SHEAR...SUNDAY DOES SEEM TO HOLD SOME CHANCE
OF STRONGER SFC BASED STORMS. THESE TYPE OF DETAILS HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO GET IRONED OUT. OVERALL THIS PATTERN IS QUITE ACTIVE AND
THERE ARE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND TO ADD TO WHAT
HAS ALREADY BEEN A WET MONTH OVER PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WITH HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE MARINE LAYER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF MODERATE WRLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
108 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LO AMPLITUDE UPR
TROF OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS TROF IS MOVING E
NEAR THE CNDN BORDER JUST N OF MN. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DPVA/
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND AREA OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET
MAX JUST NW OF LK SUP THAT IS SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV...ONLY A NARROW
BAND OF SCT SHOWERS HAS IMPACTED AREAS FM NW WI INTO THE WRN CWA
UNDER AXIS OF ENHANCED CLD COVER EXTENDING THRU THE UPR LKS INTO
ONTARIO. THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO MORE WDSPRD PCPN APPEARS TO BE VERY
DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.34
INCH /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...COMPARED TO 0.89 INCH AT MPX /110
PCT OF NORMAL/. WITH A LGT SE SYNOPTIC FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES
CENTERED JUST E OF LK SUP...THE LLVL DRY AIR FEED AWAY FM GRB IS
LIMITING THE SHOWER COVERAGE AND SPREAD TO THE E EVEN THOUGH THE
MID/HI CLD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE UNDER THE IMPRESSIVE H4-2 DVGC
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE POPS THRU LATE TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV/DYNAMICS. FOCUS FOR TNGT AND TUE SHIFT
BACK TO MAINLY TEMPS AS SHRTWV RDG BLDS BACK OVER THE UPR LKS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA/UPR DVGC ARE PROGGED
TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR LKS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG BEFORE MOVING
INTO SE ONTARIO SOON AFT 00Z. SINCE LATEST RUC FCSTS SHOW CORE OF
LLVL DRY AIR PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL UPR MI...WL RESTRICT
ACCOMPANING POPS TO JUST THE WRN CWA THRU LATE AFTN AS ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DRIER AIR. EVEN OVER THE W...
THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/UPR CNVGC AFT 21Z SHOULD
DIMINISH THE SHOWERS AND CAUSE THEM TO END COMPLETEY BY 00Z. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD SHOULD FOLLOW THE SHRTWV TO
THE E AS WELL...GIVING WAY TO MOCLR SKIES W-E. WITH A PERSISTENCE OF
LLVL DRY AIR UNDER THE MID/HI LVL DRYING AND LGT WINDS UNDER
LINGERING SFC HI PRES RDG...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR
MIN TEMPS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG LATE OVER THE FAR W WHERE THERE
WERE SOME SHOWERS/HIER SFC DWPTS THIS AFTN FARTHER FM THE CORE OF
THE LLVL DRY AIR.
TUE...HI PRES UNDER SHRTWV RDG WL DOMINATE AND BRING A MOSUNNY DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES ON LLVL MSTR...WITH THE GFS ON THE
DRIER END OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM AND THE NAM ON THE WETTER END. GIVEN
THE OBSVD DRYNESS OF THE 12Z GRB RAOB AND THE LGT SYNOPTIC SE FLOW
THAT WL DOMINATE THRU TMRW AND MAINTAIN THIS DRY AIR...PREFER THE
GFS FCST. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH UP TO 12-13C...AND DEEP MIXING
TO H75 ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS ARPCHG 80 AWAY FM LK
MODERATION. THIS DEEP MIXING WOULD DROP SFC DWPTS INTO THE UPR
30S...LOWERING MIN RH TOWARD 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...SFC WINDS WL BE
LIGHT UNDER HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN LK SUP...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WL BE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE LGT SE SYNOPTIC FLOW WL FAVOR LK
MODERATION OFF LK MI INTO THE SCENTRAL...BUT LK BREEZES WL DVLP OFF
LK SUP ALSO AND BRING MODERATION TO AREAS MAINLY FM THE KEWEENAW AND
E.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
UPPER MI WILL BE PINNED BETWEEN THE 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
AND ANOTHER LOW ACROSS MO. OUR AREA WILL INITIALLY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE S LOW...WITH CLOUDS STREAMING N INTO S CENTRAL
UPPER MI. THE OPENING WAVE WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH E UPPER MI FROM
12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE LOW 80S. 850MB TEMPS
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 12-13C. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE SE...AND
AFTERNOON CU.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODEL SPECTRUM FOR TEMPS GIVES ANYWHERE FROM
52-75F AS REALISTIC VALUES. WITH WINDS OFF LAKE MI...HAVE BROUGHT
DOWN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT AM HESITANT ON DROPPING BELOW THE
MID 60S. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS EXPECTED...IT SHOULDN/T BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON FAR E. AS WITH TEMPS...THE TRACK OF THE BROAD SFC LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. IT SHOULD BE SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND E MN AT
06Z THURSDAY. THEN BY 18Z THURSDAY THE LOW MAY BE OVER FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR /ECMWF/...OR CENTRAL ONTARIO /NAM/...OR E ONTARIO S OF
JAMES BAY /GFS/. EVEN WITH ALL THIS THE QPF ISN/T TOO DIFFERENT.
WENT WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS...EXCLUDING THE 09/00Z CANADIAN WHICH
WAS MUCH SLOWER. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AT
00Z SATURDAY...THE GFS STILL HAD THE SFC LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SFC HIGH AND 500MB RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT E ON SATURDAY...MAKING
WAY FOR THE LOW STRETCHED ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEAR
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 500MB LOW SKIMMING THE S CANADIAN BORDER
OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO PUSH NE INTO MANITOBA ON
SUNDAY /QUICKER ON THE ECMWF/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WITH HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WILL DOMINATE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE
MARINE LAYER THRU THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS
NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
828 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THAT OCCURRED TODAY ARE WANING NOW
THAT THE SUN IS SETTING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLING. WE HAVE
A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR MOST PLACES BEGINNING AT 03 UTC AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT/S ON TRACK SINCE THE ONLY REMAINING SHOWERS ON THE
02 UTC RADAR IMAGERY ARE NEAR ASHLAND AND NORTHWEST OF SHERIDAN. A
DRY FORECAST IS ON TRACK EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT AND HEIGHTS ALOFT START RISING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT AS SHORTWAVE 500-MB RIDGING APPROACHES. ONLY
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. WE DID
THINK ABOUT ADDING SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST IN SOUTHEASTERN
MT LIKE AROUND BAKER AND EKALAKA GIVEN RECENT MOISTURE AND A LIGHT
WIND REGIME NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
NO SUPPORT FOR FOG IN STATISTICAL /MOS/ OUTPUT FROM EITHER THE GFS
OR NAM...AND THE HRRR DOESN/T SIMULATE ANY FOG FOR SOUTHEASTERN MT
EITHER. MOREOVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM NEAR THE HIGH ARE IN
THE 30S...SO A DRYING TREND WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IN ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WAS THUS TOO LOW TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST.
SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT 700MB AND ABOVE HAS
RESULTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND IT WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. A
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME.
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA WHILE A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS NOT OPTIMUM AND THE HIGHER CAPES ARE
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE
EARLY AS WELL AS MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FAR EAST BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
HOW MODELS HANDLE THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY SUMS UP THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INDICATE A RATHER ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE WEEKEND FOR OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO AGREE IN GENERAL
TERMS OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND POSITION
OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS IS NOT QUITE IN SYNC AT THIS
TIME. THE GFS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 00Z ECMWF
HAD THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
MONTANA...BUT THE NEWEST 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MUCH CLOSER TO THE
GFS SOLUTION.
BOTTOM LINE...IT APPEARS THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN
SEASONALLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH DETAILS COME INTO
QUESTION TOWARD NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ROUTES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ROUTES...INCLUDING THOSE NEAR
KLVM...BY LATE THURS AFTERNOON. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/075 054/079 050/067 049/072 051/072 050/071 051/072
20/B 23/T 33/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 32/W
LVM 041/076 045/074 042/065 041/069 044/071 043/068 043/070
13/T 34/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 32/W
HDN 046/077 053/082 051/069 048/074 050/075 051/072 050/074
21/B 13/T 33/T 32/T 23/T 34/T 43/W
MLS 045/075 054/081 053/070 050/073 052/075 053/072 052/073
20/U 23/T 43/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 33/W
4BQ 044/076 054/082 052/069 049/073 050/075 052/074 050/074
20/U 13/T 44/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 33/W
BHK 041/069 049/079 051/067 047/070 049/072 050/069 050/070
20/U 23/T 44/T 33/T 23/T 44/T 44/W
SHR 042/077 050/080 046/066 044/070 046/073 047/071 045/071
21/B 13/T 34/T 32/T 23/T 34/T 43/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
646 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A ~110KT JET STREAK NEAR
MAINE AND A ~55KT JET STREAK OVER WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 12Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AS
WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE AN
AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT /
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE
LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND A WEAK DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...CLEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TONIGHT...WITH THIS SURFACE LOW THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE WARM FRONT / STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR MUCH OF OUR CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA POST-FROPA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT LIFT ALONG THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEAR AS THROUGH THEY WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WHAT LITTLE CIN WILL BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE
AREA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 1KM WRF-NMM...1KM WRF-ARW AND HRRR ALL
SUGGEST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR CWA AROUND 00Z...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS 23Z. THESE DATA DO NOT SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL BE
OVERLY WIDESPREAD ...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE AND THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR AREA...BUT IT CERTAINLY APPEARS HIT AND MISS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION COULD INCREASE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE
PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATION
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD ~20% POPS
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTING AT 23Z THIS EVENING...WITH POPS
THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 70% ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CWA
00-06Z. POPS ARE THEN TAPERED OFF TO NEAR ZERO HEADING INTO THE
DAY THURSDAY.
ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
READINGS NEAR 60...ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AS THE SHORT WAVE BRUSHES OUR AREA TO THE NORTH...SHOULD
PROMOTE RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO
NEAR 3000J/KG WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF ~25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THE
UPDRAFTS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLEAR THE
AREA TONIGHT...A TRULY COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL NOT
LIKELY INFILTRATE OUR AREA UNTIL THE DAY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS SHOULD BE REALIZED TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL THEN
PROMOTE COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH IT REMAINING DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN UPPER LEVELS OVER THE PLAINS...SET
UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH
THE ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY...THESE FEATURES SLIDE EAST...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...ENDING UP TO THE EAST BY
FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
PATTERN ON THURSDAY NIGHT
...WITH CONTINUED LIGHTER NE/E WINDS...BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT A
REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH NEAR 80 IN THE
EAST TO MID 80S IN THE WEST.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PAC NW
HAVING SHIFTED EAST IN CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH AN 50-ISH+ KT LLJ IN PLACE. SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT ALL
ARE IN AGREEMENT /THE EC IS DRY/...SHOWING THE AREA CAPPED WITH
BETTER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ZONES OF THE LLJ. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
GOING AFTER 06Z. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIES WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE APPROACHING FROM THE NW/W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/PERHAPS EARLY
EVENING...DEPENDING ON CAPPING...BEFORE CONTINUING ITS TREK E/SE
THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MODELS SHOWING A GOOD COMBO OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN COMING MODEL RUNS.
THINKING THAT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY WOULD MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE BY BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...LEAVING THE REST OF THE DAY
DRY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS ON SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO
REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NEAR 80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN IN PLACE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH. LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/LOCATION THIS FAR
OUT...SO KEPT POPS LOW...HARD TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR KGRI. AT 645 PM
CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF SAINT PAUL TO NEAR
WOOD RIVER...AND OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THE FIRST ECHO
ON RADAR IS DUE NORTH OF KGRI...JUST NORTH OF ST LIBORY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL CERTAINLY BE IN THE KGRI VICINITY
THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...AT WHICH POINT THEY SHOULD ALL HAVE PASSED
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 10 PM AT KGRI. THE WIND WILL TURN
TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY 01Z TO 02Z. THE WIND WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID. PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
637 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
18Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WITH AVAILABLE REMOTE SENSING
DATA REVEALS THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SANDHILLS REGION...AT THE NORTHERN DOOR OF KLBF. 19Z HAND
ANALYSIS INDICATED A TONGUE OF 60+ TD/S ARCING NORTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WHEELER AND GARFIELD
COUNTIES...WITH OTHER 60+ TD/S NOTED POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG AND WITHIN THE PLATTE RIVER BASINS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 19Z
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN KVTN...TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. AVAILABLE
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FETCH OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH THE CAP BEING
BREACHED AFTER 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TREND OF THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAS BEEN TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST /15-16Z/ RUN OF THE HRRR NOW INDICATING THE ONLY CONVECTION
FIRING IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
WHEELER COUNTY. THE LATEST RAP13 SHOWS A SIMILAR TREND...BUT
SLIGHTLY MORE AMBITIOUS WITH FIRING CONVECTION BY 21Z. WILL FOLLOW
THE EASTWARD TREND OF THE NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS AND CUT BACK POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND EAST CONSIDERABLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATER
THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO A EASTWARD ADVANCING
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE. THE AVAILABLE NEAR TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE EVENTUAL MERGER OF STORMS INTO A EASTWARD
PROPAGATING MCS THAT MAY BRUSH OUR FAR SOUTHWEST...BUT THE TREND OF
THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH...SO WITH THAT STORM
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ARE FADING AS WELL. IF THE CAP IS
BREACHED AND STORMS FIRE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...STEEP LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE WOULD
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY TSTM WIND. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH LIGHT WIND AND CLEARING CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S IS FORECAST...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH CARVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR
US STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET CONVECTION WISE. THAT
WILL CHANGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
QUICKLY TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO REGION. SOME MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...BUT THE NOSE OF THE JET AND BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME THUNDER THOUGH...SO WILL
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THIS POINT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE BETTER CHANCE WILL COME SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD ROUGHLY EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR EWING TO COMSTOCK TO
CURTIS BY VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS CAP WEAKENS...AND DECENT UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. GOOD
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
SOME HEALTHY SB CAPES /NEARING 5000 J/KG/ AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT
CREATING GOOD SHEAR...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 45 KTS.
MODELS THEN AGREE THAT AN MCS SHOULD EVOLVE...WITH THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...AS STILL DECENT
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED CAPE COULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH STILL REMAINING TO OUR NORTHWEST. FRONT WASHES OUT
MONDAY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWEST BACK INTO
THE AREA. MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
SUPPORTING A POTENT SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING OUR AREA. GFS NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SO WILL
KEEP POPS 30 PERCENT OR BELOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
SCATTERED MVFR CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY
REDEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AROUND 09Z-12Z THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD LIFT THESE CIGS AROUND 16Z...IF THEY REFORM AS SHOWN
BY THE RAP MODEL. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE NORTH
PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER BASINS. THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND AND RAPID ROCKY MOUNTAIN
SNOW MELT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING....BUT THEN DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR
THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WORK WEEK AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE END OF
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
MAIN FOCUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE ON
DEVELOPING SHWRS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL. SO FAR AFTER
PERUSING LATEST MODEL TRENDS...OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LACKING DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS
WHICH WE/LL DIVE INTO HERE. MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT DAYTIME INSTABILITY GENERATION
AS LATEST RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFFER A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE
AT BEST. MODEL LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL BE WITH
US FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AS A WEAK LOW /MID-LEVEL WIND
FIELD WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE ATMOSPHERE/S MIXING POTENTIAL.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WILL SKIRT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE WEAKEST. AND IF THAT WERE NOT ENOUGH...ANY
JET DYNAMICS FROM A STRAIGHT-LINE JET OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AGAIN
WILL ONLY INFLUENCE THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA. ALL
TOLD...OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REALLY JUST DOESN/T LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CUT BACK A LITTLE ON THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...WHILE MAINTAINING AN ISOLATED MENTION FROM THE FINGER
LAKES AND POINTS SOUTH. IF ANYTHING DOES GET GOING...WEAK LOW/MID-
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL CREATE VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WHICH
COMBINED WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES...MAY CREATE AN ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN CONCERN.
645 AM EDT UPDATE... PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING. FOG
SHOULD LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS EXPECTED. ADJUSTED
TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO MATCH REALITY OF TEMPS. DECIDED TO
RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
420 AM EDT UPDATE...
AN UPPR LVL CUTOFF LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
AT THE SFC... HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE FROM THE
NORTH AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH VISBYS RANGING FROM
A QUARTER OF A MILE TO AROUND 6SM. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OUT A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE ALSO PRESENT THIS MORNING COVERING THE
WHOLE CWA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT OUT AROUND 16Z. WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE EARLY... HOWEVER WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE PRESENT EXPECT THE SKY TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO OVERCAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY SHORTLY THERE OF.
THESE TWO FEATURES MAY ACT AS A LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH
MAY HELP THE INITIATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY... BUT THE NAM IS HINTING AT A DECENT INVERSION AROUND 700MB
TODAY... IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION OVER THE CWA. THUS... HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE PA AND FAR SOUTHERN NY.
SINCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 70S. WINDS
FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH AND BE NORTHERLY AS THE
SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
420 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFTS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WV`S ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NY AND PA. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WED. DURING
THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO HAVE TO BEST
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. PWAT VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RISE AROUND 1.8 INCHES WED AFTERNOON... AND WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL.... ALONG WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM BEING SLOW... ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE AN ISSUE. WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.
THURSDAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL SWING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ON THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WARM IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL INTO THE UPPR 70S/LOW 80S WED
AND THURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS THEREFORE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS/POPS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
215 PM UPDATE...
AN UNSETTLED START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT MUCH LIKE THE PAST
FEW WEEKENDS, BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL BE UPON US AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND! FRIDAY WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT AT RAIN AS AN AXIS OF
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GENERAL H5 TROF IN THE
EASTERN US. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP FRIDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
EVENING.
THIS WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR, LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS.
H85 TEMPS IN THE 8C TO 10C RANGE WILL SUPPORT COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN
THE 70S SATURDAY. WITH ANOTHER 2C RISE BY SUNDAY, MANY LOCATIONS
WILL WARM INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WAS OBSERVED. AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP,
LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN
IMPROVE TO LOW VFR. AT KITH/KBGM/KELM, CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MIN
WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LIFT
TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAFS DUE TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT
PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z WIDESPREAD MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MIXING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS.
THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...CMG/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
348 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
CONVECTIVE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY HAS HELD DOWN TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
THUS...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. ATTENTION FOR THE EVENING
WILL BE FOCUSED ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE 19 UTC RAP/16 UTC HRRR PROPAGATE
THIS CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 00-01 UTC AND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY 04 UTC...AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 06
UTC. THE RAP CHARACTERIZES THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WITH 300-500
J/KG OF -10 TO -30 C HAIL CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40
KTS...SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION IN
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT AND EXPECTED INFILTRATION...THE THREAT FOR
OVERLAND OR RIVER FLOODING IS LOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
THE 500MB PATTERN ON THE EXTENDED MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
A FAIRLY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
THE EXCEPTION BEING THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH EXITS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. CLEARING SKIES WILL COMMENCE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT INTO NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW...PRODUCING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
TIME IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...BUT TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REMAINS IN
AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 65F TO 75F...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT KDIK/KJMS/KBIS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND POTENTIALLY
APPROACH KDIK BY 01 UTC...KBIS BY 04 UTC AND KJMS BY 06 UTC.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARDS MVFR/IFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS SETTING UP FROM THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...AND THE 16Z RAP INDICATES
MLCAPE 800-1000 J/KG BY 21Z. MLCIN WILL BE SUFFICIENT UNTIL 21Z TO
PREVENT SFC BASED CONVECTION. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT THE SFC CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AFTER 21Z ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. IF CONVECTION DOES
INITIATE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAIL AROUND 1.0 INCH GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS.
LIMITED THE POPS/WX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THIS LOCATION WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS SETTING UP. FOR TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED THAT 850MB-700MB FRONTOGENETICAL BAND WILL SET UP FROM
CARRINGTON TO GRAND FORKS TO ROSEAU...AND INCREASED POPS IN THIS
AREA (WHILE LIMITING POPS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL SASK MOVING INTO
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MAIN SFC LOW ASSOC WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL MANITOBA NORTH OF THE INTERLAKE REGION...WITH A WEAK FRONT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
EAST AND TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO ND ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONTINUED
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THRU NRN ND WITH SHOWERS ENTERING DEVILS
LAKE REGION. THIS IS A BIT AHEAD OF MOST MODELS...BUT LATEST HRRR
DOES HAVE SHOWER GETTING INTO THE NRN VALLEY NR 12Z-13Z BEFORE
DYING OUT. SO WILL INCLUDE MORNING POP FOR SHOWERS IN NE ND.
AFTERWARDS FOR THIS AFTN...MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH. SFC
TROUGH IS BASICALLY WASHING OUT OVER FAR NW MN/NE ND SO FORCING
FOR ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK. HOWEVER WITH ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING AS SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID- UPR 70S THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH LIFTED INDICES -2/-3 AND CAPES 1100-1500
J/KG TO GENERATE A BROKEN LINE OF TCU AND A FEW STORMS LIKELY NR A
ROX-GFK-JMS LINE LATE AFTN. THIS AXIS WILL DROP SOUTH SLOWLY THRU
THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS A 5 PCT SVR RISK AREA ALONG THE
ROX-GFK-FAR-JMS AXIS LATE AFTN AND THIS IS REASONABLE WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO RELATIVELY COLD AIR
ALOFT. BUT WIDESPREAD SVR IS NOT LIKELY.
NEXT STRONGER WAVE MOVING INTO WRN OREGON ATTM WILL MOVE INTO THE
N PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN ERN SD
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN WED LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND TSTM AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PWATS
INCREASE TO NEARLY 1.5 INCH IN RRV/WRN MN WED AFTN. HPC BRINGS
1-1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL WED-WED EVE JMS-GFK-FAR-BJI REGION AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS ON BACKSIDE OF
500 MB SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL START TO CLOSE OFF OVER MINNESOTA
LATER WED AFTN. SO IDEA OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA SEEMS REASONABLE. GFS HAS COME BACK NORTH AND CLOSE TO
GEM/ECMWF SOLN. NAM A BIT WEAKER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
RAIN TO FOCUS MORE OVER MINNESOTA WED NIGHT AND END IN ERN ND.
THEN THURSDAY WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND SUNSHINE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF 500 HPA HEIGHTS SHOW
A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY
TO A LARGE...SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF
IS MOST BULLISH WITH QPF ON SATURDAY WHEREAS THE GFS IS WETTER ON
SUNDAY. THE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE
GFS IS MORE APT TO BRING GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA COMPARED TO THE THE ECMWF...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING COMBINED WITH PWATS
AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES SUGGESTS A HIGH CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF MID-JUNE NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
SCATTERED SHRA ENTERING DVL BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDED FOR
POINTS FARTHER EAST LATER AFTN AND EVENING. STEADIER RAIN PROGGED
FOR WED MORNING WITH VSBY LIKELY LOWERING TO MVFR. BEFORE
THAT...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HEADING FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CAUSE LIGHT AND SOMETIMES VARIABLE WIND FIELD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NE WIND DURING WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONGER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
758 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TO START THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION IN A LULL...BUT NOT CONVINCED WE ARE FINISHED...SO WILL
LEAVE THE WATCH IN PLACE AND RE EVALUATE ON A HALF HOURLY BASIS.
ONLY GOES UNTIL 9PM ANYWAYS. RAP MODEL SUGGESTING AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO THE SOUTH IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. NOT SURE
HOW WELL THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS...INCLUDING THE WRF MODELS...ARE
HANDLING THIS AS OUR AIR HAS BEEN PRETTY WELL WORKED OVER WITH
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 70-75 DEGREE MARK. BUT...NUMEROUS
OUTFLOWS COULD ASSIST IN THE INITIATION PROCESS...AND LEAVES US IN
A TRICKY SITUATION. KEEPING THE POPS HIGH CHANCE INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AND LOWER CHANCE TOWARDS DAWN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PW VALUES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION ARE AROUND 1.25 TO
1.50 INCHES ATTM. STORMS ARE FIRING WITH HEATING ALONG LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING HAIL...WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK...AS WELL AS EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GOING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A
NEW SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO
MORE CONVECTION. FAIRLY UNSTABLE...BUT LIGHT FLOW SO NOT REALLY
CONCERNED WITH SEVERE BUT WATER COULD BE AN ISSUE. CLEARING OUT ON
FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR DRY WEATHER SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW WITH THE FRONT PIVOTING AND
RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED GUIDANCE SO THEY WERE NOT ADJUSTED MUCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW APPROACHES.
TIMING AND CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THIS FAR OUT WITH
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME
AMENDMENTS HERE AND THERE.
STRONGER CONVECTION ON THE WANE...BUT AS EXPLAINED IN THE NEAR
TERM UPDATE ABOVE...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION AFTER 00Z WITH ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...DO NOT WANT TO LEAVE THE AVIATION COMMUNITY
HANGING WITH TSRA ALL OVER THE PLACE...SO AM KIND OF FORCED TO GO
WITH THE VCTS AT TIMES WITH SHRA LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT.
THE OTHER PROBLEM IS THE FOG POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SEE MORE OF A STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN PLACE WHICH WOULD
IDEALLY LIMIT FOG...BUT WITH RAIN TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS...NOT SURE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE NIL. RELYING ON
LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...WHICH SHOW SOME
DISCIPLINE AND DO NOT TAKE THE SITES INTO THE DIRT...AND ARE
SELECTIVELY GIVING IFR. MUCH HAPPINESS WI HEN THE GUIDANCE CAN
GIVE A LITTLE COOPERATION IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION MATERIALIZATION AND TIMING COULD
VARY. MIST/FOG COULD BE MORE DENSE THAN FORECAST. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/12/14
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO
FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL FOG 06Z TO 12Z LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/LS
NEAR TERM...JS/26
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
748 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TO START THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION IN A LULL...BUT NOT CONVINCED WE ARE FINISHED...SO WILL
LEAVE THE WATCH IN PLACE AND RE EVALUATE ON A HALF HOURLY BASIS.
ONLY GOES UNTIL 9PM ANYWAYS. RAP MODEL SUGGESTING AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO THE SOUTH IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. NOT SURE
HOW WELL THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS...INCLUDING THE WRF MODELS...ARE
HANDLING THIS AS OUR AIR HAS BEEN PRETTY WELL WORKED OVER WITH
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 70-75 DEGREE MARK. BUT...NUMEROUS
OUTFLOWS COULD ASSIST IN THE INITIATION PROCESS...AND LEAVES US IN
A TRICKY SITUATION. KEEPING THE POPS HIGH CHANCE INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AND LOWER CHANCE TOWARDS DAWN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PW VALUES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION ARE AROUND 1.25 TO
1.50 INCHES ATTM. STORMS ARE FIRING WITH HEATING ALONG LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING HAIL...WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK...AS WELL AS EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GOING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A
NEW SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO
MORE CONVECTION. FAIRLY UNSTABLE...BUT LIGHT FLOW SO NOT REALLY
CONCERNED WITH SEVERE BUT WATER COULD BE AN ISSUE. CLEARING OUT ON
FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR DRY WEATHER SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW WITH THE FRONT PIVOTING AND
RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED GUIDANCE SO THEY WERE NOT ADJUSTED MUCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW APPROACHES.
TIMING AND CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THIS FAR OUT WITH
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME
AMENDMENTS HERE AND THERE.
STRONGER CONVECTION ON THE WANE...BUT AS EXPLAINED IN THE NEAR
TERM UPDATE ABOVE...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION AFTER 00Z WITH ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...DO NOT WANT TO LEAVE THE AVIATION COMMUNITY
HANGING WITH TSRA ALL OVER THE PLACE...SO AM KIND OF FORCED TO GO
WITH THE VCTS AT TIMES WITH SHRA LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT.
THE OTHER PROBLEM IS THE FOG POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SEE MORE OF A STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN PLACE WHICH WOULD
IDEALLY LIMIT FOG...BUT WITH RAIN TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS...NOT SURE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE NIL. RELYING ON
LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...WHICH SHOW SOME
DISCIPLINE AND DO NOT TAKE THE SITES INTO THE DIRT...AND ARE
SELECTIVELY GIVING IFR. MUCH HAPPINESS WI HEN THE GUIDANCE CAN
GIVE A LITTLE COOPERATION IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION MATERIALIZATION AND TIMING COULD
VARY. MIST/FOG COULD BE MORE DENSE THAN FORECAST. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/12/14
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO
FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL FOG 06Z TO 12Z LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/LS
NEAR TERM...JS/26
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST REACHING ILLINOIS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SMALL BAND OF SCT SHRA OVER CRAWFORD CO PA INTO EXTREME NE OH
REFUSES TO GIVE UP SO EXTENDED SMALL POP FOR THAT AREA ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO.
TONIGHT THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LIFT NORTH A BIT AND
LOOSE INFLUENCE ON THE AREA. THIS WILL OPEN THE AREA UP TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LOW. BASED ON RUC AND LIMITED HRRR DATA ALONG WITH
18Z GFS...THINK THE EARLIEST ANY RAIN WOULD REACH THE SW PART OF THE
CWA SHOULD BE 11Z OR LATER. THUS ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE NIGHT HOURS
DOWN SO POP ONLY GET UP TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY 11Z
DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED ALL BUT THE FAR EAST TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PART CLOUDY THIS EVENING. DECREASE OF THE CLOUDS
LOOKS TO BE ENDING WITH NEXT PUSH OF HIGHER CLOUDS IN INDIANA AND SW
OH PUSHING TOWARD THE CWA.
AS FOR TEMPS...COOL STARTING POINT THIS EVENING AND DECREASED CLOUDS
HAVE LEAD TO TRENDING TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER DEG OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EAST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TUESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI JUST EAST OF THE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM. A
WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
OPENS. LOOKING AT THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND WINDS THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO/THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WILL START TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS BASICALLY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM HOLMES COUNTY TO MFD TO FDY. EXPANDED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING THE
FAR SOUTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BROUGHT POPS TO CATEGORICAL TUESDAY NIGHT DECREASING TO
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A DIURNAL DECREASE BEFORE INCREASING
BACK UP TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT.
TEMPS SEASONAL TO A FEW ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AT THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NE ACROSS THE AREA...SETTING UP WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO
START WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON MONDAY ALLOWING
A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO SET UP.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. EXPECTING THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE THEIR
FIRST AND THEN ENVELOPE THE REST OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IFR TO POSSIBLE LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WEST HALF TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER ON TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT
NORTH FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1108 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DELIVER SUNNY...DRIER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEEMS LIKE THE ANTICIPATED LLJET INCREASE IS OCCURRING NOW...AND
THAT THE NOSE OF THE JET IS ABOUT HALF WAY THRU THE CWA...MOVING
TO THE NORTH. CIRCULATION HEADED FOR KUNV SEEMS TO BE THE REMNANT
MCV FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WE HAVE HAD THIS EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK
IS SEEN IN THE PRECIP ON MESO MDL DATA WHICH LINES UP NICELY TO
RADAR ECHOES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH RAP POINTING TO THE ALLEGHENIES AS THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...THIS MATCHES WITH
THE VERY LATEST CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER SWRN PA. CAN/T TAKE POPS
OUT FROM ANYWHERE...BUT WILL LEAVE THE HIGHER NUMBERS IN THE NW
AND LOWER SC/SE. RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVY IN THE SWRN COS...AND
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN POSSIBLE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLW FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS THERE. MUGGY NIGHT...BUT SOME WIND SHOULD HELP KEEP FOG
FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD/DENSE. TEMPS MIGHT COOL A FEW MORE
DEGS...BUT WERE ARE NEAR MINS NOW WITH TEMPS ALREADY NEAR THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTION BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING RELEASES
AND LEADS TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD
LATE THU MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MADE NO CHANGES TO GOING POPS
GIVEN CONSENSUS FOR CATEGORICAL POPS AND LOCALIZED HVY RAIN
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY STRONGER CONVECTION. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
AGAIN HOLD TEMPS DOWN WITH MAXES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL BRING THE FIRST OF TWO TROFS THROUGH THE
REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING.
THE FIRST WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH
OF PA FRIDAY AS IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A DEEPER NORTHWARD
PROPAGATING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU
CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...MOST SPOTS WILL SEE A PM TSRA AS THIS
RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO
A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FAIR WX AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY GO A BIT BLW
NORMAL...ESP SAT NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NEGATIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES PASS OVR THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH BREAKING LATE
THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM FORMING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS ON SUNDAY.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE NR 16C MON- TUE...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. RETURN OF HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE CHC OF
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE 03Z TAFS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
STORMS...BUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF LNS...GIVEN
SE FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN A SMALL AREA.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOW CIGS PERSISTED ACROSS THE EAST TODAY...MORE SO THAN I
EXPECTED. THE CLOUDY SKIES HELD TEMPS DOWN SOME...THUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVED EAST OF UNV EARLIER JUST FELL
APART.
FURTHER WEST...HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTS SEVERE STORMS.
BEHIND THESE STORMS...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM FAR PA.
ADJUSTED 00Z TAFS FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY.
ONCE STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...LOW CLDS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THU AM.
EXPECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TO BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY IFR AND MVFR.
SIMILAR SITUATION FOR FRIDAY.
SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...A.M. FOG/ST. VFR/MVFR WITH PDS OF MVFR/IFR IN TSTMS.
SAT-SUN...VFR.
MON...MVFR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DELIVER SUNNY...DRIER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEEMS LIKE THE ANTICIPATED LLJET INCREASE IS OCCURRING NOW...AND
THAT THE NOSE OF THE JET IS ABOUT HALF WAY THRU THE CWA...MOVING
TO THE NORTH. CIRCULATION HEADED FOR KUNV SEEMS TO BE THE REMNANT
MCV FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WE HAVE HAD THIS EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK
IS SEEN IN THE PRECIP ON MESO MDL DATA WHICH LINES UP NICELY TO
RADAR ECHOES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH RAP POINTING TO THE ALLEGHENIES AS THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...THIS MATCHES WITH
THE VERY LATEST CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER SWRN PA. CAN/T TAKE POPS
OUT FROM ANYWHERE...BUT WILL LEAVE THE HIGHER NUMBERS IN THE NW
AND LOWER SC/SE. RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVY IN THE SWRN COS...AND
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN POSSIBLE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLW FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS THERE. MUGGY NIGHT...BUT SOME WIND SHOULD HELP KEEP FOG
FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD/DENSE. TEMPS MIGHT COOL A FEW MORE
DEGS...BUT WERE ARE NEAR MINS NOW WITH TEMPS ALREADY NEAR THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTION BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING RELEASES
AND LEADS TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD
LATE THU MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MADE NO CHANGES TO GOING POPS
GIVEN CONSENSUS FOR CATEGORICAL POPS AND LOCALIZED HVY RAIN
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY STRONGER CONVECTION. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
AGAIN HOLD TEMPS DOWN WITH MAXES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL BRING THE FIRST OF TWO TROFS THROUGH THE
REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING.
THE FIRST WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH
OF PA FRIDAY AS IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A DEEPER NORTHWARD
PROPAGATING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU
CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...MOST SPOTS WILL SEE A PM TSRA AS THIS
RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO
A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FAIR WX AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY GO A BIT BLW
NORMAL...ESP SAT NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NEGATIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES PASS OVR THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH BREAKING LATE
THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM FORMING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS ON SUNDAY.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE NR 16C MON- TUE...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. RETURN OF HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE CHC OF
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CIGS PERSISTED ACROSS THE EAST TODAY...MORE SO THAN I
EXPECTED. THE CLOUDY SKIES HELD TEMPS DOWN SOME...THUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVED EAST OF UNV EARLIER JUST FELL
APART.
FURTHER WEST...HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTS SEVERE STORMS.
BEHIND THESE STORMS...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM FAR PA.
ADJUSTED 00Z TAFS FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY.
ONCE STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...LOW CLDS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THU AM.
EXPECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TO BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY IFR AND MVFR.
SIMILAR SITUATION FOR FRIDAY.
SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...A.M. FOG/ST. VFR/MVFR WITH PDS OF MVFR/IFR IN TSTMS.
SAT-SUN...VFR.
MON...MVFR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
156 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY AND
THEN ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 130 PM...LATEST FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO CHANGES
NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AT 1030 AM...12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT SPC MESOANAL INDICATES THAT
ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY CAPPED. WITH GENERAL NVA ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER RIDGE EXPECT THAT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SUPPRESSED. THE LATEST HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE SBCAPES ARE THE GREATEST.
HENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO WIDELY SCATTERED RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF SHOW MUCH
LESS CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM DOES SHOW
SOME CONVECTION...BUT OVERALL BUMPED POPS DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE WIDELY SCT/SCT RANGE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW GENERALLY AFTER 00Z SO
WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISE POPS INCREASING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM DISSIPATES THE
CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING EASTERN SECTIONS. SO
CURRENT POP GRID LOOKS ON TARGET FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
STRONG INSOLATION UNDER UPPER RIDGE IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
WITH MID TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
AT 830 AM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. THE LITTLE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS HAS
DISSIPATED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP WILL
EXIST FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY OVER PIEDMONT. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED UPDRAFTS BREAKING THE CAP...BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO
THE ISOLATED RANGE PIEDMONT AREAS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC
SCALE NVA UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. IN THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. CAM`S INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY JUST THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
1100 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...REDUCING COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN SC. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO
INCORPORATE THE 06Z NAM. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...REDUCING COVERAGE IN THE EAST. AREAS OF FOG WERE
ADJUSTED PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND TOWARD
SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WILL
AMPLIFY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE
AROUND THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. THE
CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN TN AND GA IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS VIGOR TOWARD DAYBREAK AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN NC WHERE BETTER RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT...CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR QUITE GOOD TODAY
ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LARGE CAPE AND SOME SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MID SUMMER NORMAL UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
CONVECTION MAY WELL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS STABILIZATION TAKES
SOME TIME TO OCCUR...UNLESS THE AREA IS SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER BY
CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST
BELOW MID SUMMER NORMALS. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOME INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION WED THRU FRI...KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES. A REMNANT TROUGH FROM THE DEEP LOW HOWEVER WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME. SWLY LLVL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWFA...AND BY LATE
WED PROG SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY SATURATED THROUGH MOST OF THE
COLUMN. HOWEVER...PROFILES WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH EARLY IN THE DAY
TO ALLOW DEEP MIXING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
UPSTATE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND 20-30 KT
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...THIS MAY PERMIT SOME CELLS TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.
WED NIGHT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH PROFILES LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ON THU
BUOYANCY DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT BUT WE WILL HAVE THE
ADDED FORCING FROM THE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. WHILE PWAT VALUES
WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE WED...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR
ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT THU AND SOMEWHAT INTO THU NIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW TO
MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CLOSEST THING
TO A LLJ BEING OFF TO OUR NORTH...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD OR MEMORABLE. FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK FRI MRNG
BUT WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY ANYWAY...SO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED ACRS THE PIEDMONT BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS. ON THU...CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE CWFA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT AND
BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGER TROUGH OVER THE NERN US BY FRI
NIGHT...WHICH ITSELF LIFTS AWAY LEAVING THE ERN SEABOARD UNDER BROAD
AND WEAK RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/EC DIFFER ON HOW TO HANDLE A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
DURING THIS TIME...THE GFS LETTING THE WAVE FILL OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE EC LETS IT DRIFT EWD AND CUTS IT OFF
OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP ON ITS SRN FRINGE
WHICH MAY LIFT NWD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...THE CWFA WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN A
MOIST PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH
ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MARITIME MOISTURE FLUX. THE
GFS TRANSITIONS TO A TYPICAL SW FLOW REGIME AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THE EC FEATURES THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ATMOSPHERE STILL SUPRESSED PER THE UNIMPRESSIVE CU FIELD
ON THE LATEST VSBL SAT PIC. LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER TN WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING TO KCLT TONIGHT. THUS...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE IN THE TAF THROUGH TONIGHT. ON WED...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH SPREADING SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY SOME RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...ATMOSPHERE ALSO IS STILL SUPPRESSED PER THE UNIMPRESSIVE
CU FIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE LATEST VSBL SAT PIC.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING FORM CENTRAL TN...S INTO AL. THIS WILL MAKE A RUN
EASTWARD AND REACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ABOUT 00Z. STORMS SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN THEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO AN UPPER RIDGE.
HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A TEMPO AT KAND WHERE THE STORMS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF MAKING IT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR
NOW. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND BEEF UP THUNDER FORECAST IF IT APPEARS
THE THUNDERSTORM COPMPLEX WILL HOLD TOGETHER.
OUTLOOK...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED NIGHT ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT THAT MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY AGAIN THU INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN
VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 95%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 95%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 95%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 82%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 88% MED 60%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1030 AM...12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT SPC MESOANAL INDICATES THAT
ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY CAPPED. WITH GENERAL NVA ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER RIDGE EXPECT THAT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SUPPRESSED. THE LATEST HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE SBCAPES ARE THE GREATEST.
HENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO WIDELY SCATTERED RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF SHOW MUCH
LESS CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM DOES SHOW
SOME CONVECTION...BUT OVERALL BUMPED POPS DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE WIDELY SCT/SCT RANGE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW GENERALLY AFTER 00Z SO
WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISE POPS INCREASING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM DISSIPATES THE
CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING EASTERN SECTIONS. SO
CURRENT POP GRID LOOKS ON TARGET FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
STRONG INSOLATION UNDER UPPER RIDGE IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
WITH MID TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
AT 830 AM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. THE LITTLE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS HAS
DISSIPATED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP WILL
EXIST FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY OVER PIEDMONT. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED UPDRAFTS BREAKING THE CAP...BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO
THE ISOLATED RANGE PIEDMONT AREAS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC
SCALE NVA UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. IN THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. CAM`S INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY JUST THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
1100 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...REDUCING COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN SC. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO
INCORPORATE THE 06Z NAM. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...REDUCING COVERAGE IN THE EAST. AREAS OF FOG WERE
ADJUSTED PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND TOWARD
SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WILL
AMPLIFY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE
AROUND THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. THE
CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN TN AND GA IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS VIGOR TOWARD DAYBREAK AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN NC WHERE BETTER RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT...CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR QUITE GOOD TODAY
ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LARGE CAPE AND SOME SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MID SUMMER NORMAL UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
CONVECTION MAY WELL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS STABILIZATION TAKES
SOME TIME TO OCCUR...UNLESS THE AREA IS SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER BY
CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST
BELOW MID SUMMER NORMALS. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOME INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION WED THRU FRI...KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES. A REMNANT TROUGH FROM THE DEEP LOW HOWEVER WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME. SWLY LLVL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWFA...AND BY LATE
WED PROG SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY SATURATED THROUGH MOST OF THE
COLUMN. HOWEVER...PROFILES WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH EARLY IN THE DAY
TO ALLOW DEEP MIXING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
UPSTATE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND 20-30 KT
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...THIS MAY PERMIT SOME CELLS TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.
WED NIGHT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH PROFILES LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ON THU
BUOYANCY DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT BUT WE WILL HAVE THE
ADDED FORCING FROM THE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. WHILE PWAT VALUES
WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE WED...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR
ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT THU AND SOMEWHAT INTO THU NIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW TO
MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CLOSEST THING
TO A LLJ BEING OFF TO OUR NORTH...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD OR MEMORABLE. FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK FRI MRNG
BUT WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY ANYWAY...SO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED ACRS THE PIEDMONT BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS. ON THU...CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE CWFA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT AND
BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGER TROUGH OVER THE NERN US BY FRI
NIGHT...WHICH ITSELF LIFTS AWAY LEAVING THE ERN SEABOARD UNDER BROAD
AND WEAK RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/EC DIFFER ON HOW TO HANDLE A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
DURING THIS TIME...THE GFS LETTING THE WAVE FILL OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE EC LETS IT DRIFT EWD AND CUTS IT OFF
OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP ON ITS SRN FRINGE
WHICH MAY LIFT NWD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...THE CWFA WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN A
MOIST PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH
ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MARITIME MOISTURE FLUX. THE
GFS TRANSITIONS TO A TYPICAL SW FLOW REGIME AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THE EC FEATURES THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS MORNING...NOR HAS AN
MVFR CIG RESTRICTION. FOG COVERAGE REMAINS IN ALL DIRECTIONS ...AND
THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION HAS LOWERED TO 2 DEGREE...SO SOME
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR TEMPORARY FOG. INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER
FORCING. GUIDANCE FAVORS SCATTERED CIRRUS TODAY...BUT A LOW VFR CIG
COULD ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL... BECOMING
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD FAVOR LOW
VFR FOG AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY KHKY IS PLAGUED WITH A FOG RESTRICTION THIS
MORNING...AND DEW POINT DEPRESSION DO NOT FAVOR FOG ELSEWHERE.
SHOWERS NEAR KAVL WILL DIMINISH AS UPPER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE
NE. INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH
A LACK OF FORCING. GUIDANCE SUPPORT GENERALLY SCATTERED CIRRUS...BUT
A LOW VFR CIG COULD ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. SW WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MVFR FOG AT KHKY AND KAND...AND IFR FOG AT KAVL BY
DAWN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN EXPECTED CONVECTION...AND THE MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO
FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH
MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM. BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0815 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...ALLOWING A CONVECTIVE LINE TO MOVE FARTHER EAST ACROSS SW
NC...AND THE WESTERN SC UPSTATE.
AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND TOWARD
SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WILL
AMPLIFY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE
AROUND THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. THE
CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN TN AND GA IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS VIGOR TOWARD DAYBREAK AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN NC WHERE BETTER RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT...CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR QUITE GOOD TODAY
ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LARGE CAPE AND SOME SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MID SUMMER NORMAL UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
CONVECTION MAY WELL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS STABILIZATION TAKES
SOME TIME TO OCCUR...UNLESS THE AREA IS SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER BY
CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST
BELOW MID SUMMER NORMALS. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOME INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION WED THRU FRI...KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES. A REMNANT TROUGH FROM THE DEEP LOW HOWEVER WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME. SWLY LLVL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWFA...AND BY LATE
WED PROG SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY SATURATED THROUGH MOST OF THE
COLUMN. HOWEVER...PROFILES WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH EARLY IN THE DAY
TO ALLOW DEEP MIXING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
UPSTATE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND 20-30 KT
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...THIS MAY PERMIT SOME CELLS TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.
WED NIGHT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH PROFILES LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ON THU
BUOYANCY DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT BUT WE WILL HAVE THE
ADDED FORCING FROM THE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. WHILE PWAT VALUES
WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE WED...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR
ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT THU AND SOMEWHAT INTO THU NIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW TO
MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CLOSEST THING
TO A LLJ BEING OFF TO OUR NORTH...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD OR MEMORABLE. FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK FRI MRNG
BUT WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY ANYWAY...SO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED ACRS THE PIEDMONT BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS. ON THU...CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE CWFA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT AND
BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGER TROUGH OVER THE NERN US BY FRI
NIGHT...WHICH ITSELF LIFTS AWAY LEAVING THE ERN SEABOARD UNDER BROAD
AND WEAK RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/EC DIFFER ON HOW TO HANDLE A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
DURING THIS TIME...THE GFS LETTING THE WAVE FILL OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE EC LETS IT DRIFT EWD AND CUTS IT OFF
OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP ON ITS SRN FRINGE
WHICH MAY LIFT NWD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...THE CWFA WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN A
MOIST PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH
ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MARITIME MOISTURE FLUX. THE
GFS TRANSITIONS TO A TYPICAL SW FLOW REGIME AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THE EC FEATURES THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FOG IS ALREADY FORMING IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS LOW VFR...AT LEAST
MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL. AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THE RUC WAS PREFERRED FOR ITS IFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
DAYBREAK. WITH A WARM AND HUMID UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...
APPROACHING 10 KNOTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHEN GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR FOG AT NC SITES AND KAND BY
DAYBREAK...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT SC SITES...AND MVFR CIGS SW OF KAVL.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK. CONVECTION NOW IN CENTRAL TN
AND AL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT REACHES THE NC MOUNTAINS IN A
FEW HOURS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN SEE NO REASON NOT TO CARRY
THIS AT ALL SITES. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...APPROACHING 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO
FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH
MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM. BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z
KCLT HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND TOWARD
SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WILL
AMPLIFY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE
AROUND THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. THE
CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN TN AND GA IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS VIGOR TOWARD DAYBREAK AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN NC WHERE BETTER RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT...CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR QUITE GOOD TODAY
ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LARGE CAPE AND SOME SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MID SUMMER NORMAL UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
CONVECTION MAY WELL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS STABILIZATION TAKES
SOME TIME TO OCCUR...UNLESS THE AREA IS SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER BY
CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST
BELOW MID SUMMER NORMALS. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOME INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION WED THRU FRI...KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES. A REMNANT TROUGH FROM THE DEEP LOW HOWEVER WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME. SWLY LLVL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWFA...AND BY LATE
WED PROG SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY SATURATED THROUGH MOST OF THE
COLUMN. HOWEVER...PROFILES WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH EARLY IN THE DAY
TO ALLOW DEEP MIXING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
UPSTATE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND 20-30 KT
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...THIS MAY PERMIT SOME CELLS TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.
WED NIGHT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH PROFILES LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ON THU
BUOYANCY DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT BUT WE WILL HAVE THE
ADDED FORCING FROM THE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. WHILE PWAT VALUES
WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE WED...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR
ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT THU AND SOMEWHAT INTO THU NIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW TO
MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CLOSEST THING
TO A LLJ BEING OFF TO OUR NORTH...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD OR MEMORABLE. FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK FRI MRNG
BUT WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY ANYWAY...SO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED ACRS THE PIEDMONT BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS. ON THU...CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE CWFA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT AND
BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGER TROUGH OVER THE NERN US BY FRI
NIGHT...WHICH ITSELF LIFTS AWAY LEAVING THE ERN SEABOARD UNDER BROAD
AND WEAK RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/EC DIFFER ON HOW TO HANDLE A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
DURING THIS TIME...THE GFS LETTING THE WAVE FILL OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE EC LETS IT DRIFT EWD AND CUTS IT OFF
OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP ON ITS SRN FRINGE
WHICH MAY LIFT NWD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...THE CWFA WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN A
MOIST PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH
ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MARITIME MOISTURE FLUX. THE
GFS TRANSITIONS TO A TYPICAL SW FLOW REGIME AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THE EC FEATURES THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FOG IS ALREADY FORMING IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS LOW VFR...AT LEAST
MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL. AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THE RUC WAS PREFERRED FOR ITS IFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
DAYBREAK. WITH A WARM AND HUMID UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...
APPROACHING 10 KNOTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHEN GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR FOG AT NC SITES AND KAND BY
DAYBREAK...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT SC SITES...AND MVFR CIGS SW OF KAVL.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK. CONVECTION NOW IN CENTRAL TN
AND AL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT REACHES THE NC MOUNTAINS IN A
FEW HOURS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN SEE NO REASON NOT TO CARRY
THIS AT ALL SITES. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...APPROACHING 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO
FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH
MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM. BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z
KCLT HIGH 82% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
128 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER AND POPS WERE UPDATED FROM INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS UPSTREAM. WINDS WERE
UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM AND ADJMAV. AREAS OF FOG WERE
UPDATED FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
AS OF 10 PM...WILL CANCEL THE REST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
APPROACH OF AN MCS SEEN TO THE WEST.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIG
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS THE CWFA. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS PROVIDING ENHANCED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. FORECAST WILL
HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS REGIONWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION
ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE APPS. POPS TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES INTO THE LATE
EVENING WITH POPS LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MID MORNING WITH COVERAGE BEING MOST
DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER REGARDING VISIBILITY RESTRICITONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY
MORNING.
MEANWHILE...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE PUSHES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THE OLD QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INITIALIZE RATHER WEAK BEFORE RAMPING UP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85. THEREFORE EXPECTING THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON
TUESDAY TO BE ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE AXIS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS
STRETCHING TOWARDS OR EVEN EXCEEDING 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS ON
TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON SKY COVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY ON WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MO. MOVES NE AND
FILLS. A REMANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THU. AT THE SURFACE...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY LOSE SWAY OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THU. AS THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS GULF INFLOW IMPROVES WITH TIME.
IN REGARD TO CONVECTION...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS EARLY ON. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVER DONE IN
HANGING ONTO SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MUCH OF TUE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER FORCING. HENCE...WILL
STEER THE TUE NIGHT FORECAST MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE DRYER NAM.
ON WED...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL AGAIN SPIKE DURING MAX AFTERNOON
HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CASE TO BE MADE FOR
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WED NIGHT AS UPPER
DIVERGANCE IMPROVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE
UPSLOPE...ALONG WITH IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST WED NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT
REACH THE AREA.
THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK
AS SBCAPE BECOMES MORE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/CLOUDS. PWATS GRADUALLY INCREASE AND GENERALLY PEAK AROUND
1.75 INCHES. HENCE AS WE GET INTO WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT INTO THU...A
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPS. USED SUPERBLEND/
WEIGHTED MODEL DATA FOR TEMPS/POPS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FROM
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND LOWER...ESPECIALLY ON
THU AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROMOTES MORE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...AT 00Z FRIDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE OUR
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH RESULTED AFTER
THE CLOSED 500MB LOW OPENED OVER THE MIDWEST DURING MID WEEK. CAPES
OF 1000 TO 1500 OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THURSDAY ALONG
WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THESE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH ON FRIDAY AIDING IN MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE GFS HAS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM ACROSS TENNESSEE ON
FRIDAY WITH THE RESULTING COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW BECOMING UPSLOPE
FROM THE SE INTO OUR NC...SC AND GA MTNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. IF
THIS LIGHT 5 TO 10KT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PANS OUT...THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE MUCH OF SAT AND SUN WHICH OF COURSE WOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS SHOW BEST INSTABILITY IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD BEING ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 IN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS FORECAST STARTING NEXT WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN
AROUND DAY 7 OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. THIS CONTINUES TO OCCUR EACH
DAY PROGRESSIVELY PRODUCING THIS SYSTEM AROUND DAY 7 GOING BACK AT
LEAST TO A WEEK AGO. WE CAN ONLY TAKE IT SERIOUSLY IF OTHER MODELS
START TO AGREE.
TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FOG IS ALREADY FORMING IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS LOW VFR...AT LEAST
MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL. AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THE RUC WAS PREFERRED FOR ITS IFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
DAYBREAK. WITH A WARM AND HUMID UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...
APPROACHING 10 KNOTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHEN GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR FOG AT NC SITES AND KAND BY
DAYBREAK...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT SC SITES...AND MVFR CIGS SW OF KAVL.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK. CONVECTION NOW IN CENTRAL TN
AND AL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT REACHES THE NC MOUNTAINS IN A
FEW HOURS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN SEE NO REASON NOT TO CARRY
THIS AT ALL SITES. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...APPROACHING 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO
FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH
MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM. BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT HIGH 87% HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 94% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 88% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO/VISIN
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
153 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MO THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW STACKED NICELY JUST BELOW IT. GOOD MID LEVEL
JET ORIENTED DIRECTLY OVER THE MID STATE WITH SOME APPARENT
DIFFLUENCE ABOVE. THIS IS ALL HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE. LCL LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW AND RADAR
HAS INDICATED ROTATION WITH SOME OF THESE CELLS OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS. DIFFLUENCE AND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE APPRECIABLE AND WE EVEN
RECEIVED A LARGE HAIL REPORT AN HOUR OR SO AGO. MOVING
FORWARD...WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR SOME OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS THEY ARE NOW WITHIN THE RAIN COOLED SECTOR.
WILL FIRST ADDRESS THE FLOOD WATCH. WILL ELECT TO EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH 7 AM WED MORNING. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE MAIN
SYSTEM IS STILL LOCATED BACK ACROSS MO. HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER SWATH OF
MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MS AND NRN AL TOWARD 01Z. THIS AREA
OF MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
EMBEDDED HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AND THUS
THE REASON FOR THE TEMPORAL EXPANSION. AS FOR AN AREAL
EXPANSION?...TODAYS HEAVIER CELLS WERE RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH THERE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THEREFORE...NO NEED TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE AREA.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE UPCOMING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION?....
LOWER LEVELS WILL BE RAIN COOLED. BUT...SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO US. FURTHERMORE...JET
ENERGY WILL MOVE EASTWARD BUT AT A VERY SLOW CLIP. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS TO REACH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AND WEAKEN. SHEAR VALUES
WILL BE ON THE DOWNSWING. THAT SAID...WE`LL STILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB SEVERE.
PCLDY SKIES TO RETURN WED NT AND THU WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IN THE EXT FCST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
STORMS FOR OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM IS RATHER SMALL IN AREAL COVERAGE
HOWEVER. I WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD OUT
WAY. TEMPS WILL WARM AND POPS WILL LOWER TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.
ONE FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE SHORT TERM...WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR SOME OF
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES NOW FROM THE WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 66 81 64 84 / 70 60 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 64 79 62 83 / 60 50 20 20
CROSSVILLE 65 75 61 78 / 80 60 40 30
COLUMBIA 66 81 64 85 / 60 60 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 66 81 63 85 / 60 60 40 30
WAVERLY 64 79 61 84 / 50 50 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TNZ023>025-
056>058-060-061-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
106 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LAPS CAPES ARE AMPLIFIED ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA WITH HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU.
WESTERN AREAS WEST OF I-65 ARE GENERALLY RAIN COOLED NOW.
BUT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM CLEARING ANY WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A
LITTLE LONGER. STORMS ARE GENERALLY MOVING NE AT AROUND 35 MPH.
PLATEAU WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES COULD
COME INTO PLAY AS WE GO FORWARD.
AS FOR THE UPCOMING 7 DAY PACKAGE. WILL BE WORKING ON THE
DISCUSSION AND GRIDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXTENDED
DISCUSSION MAY BE ON THE SHORT SIDE GIVEN THE CURRENT BUSY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS/NEAR ALL TERMINALS AT
ISSUANCE. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-STATE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED
IN BETWEEN STORMS...BUT WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS/TS VIS AND CIG WILL
FALL INTO IFR CATEGORY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. IF A TERMINAL
EXPERIENCES ONE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS...HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 8-10KTS.
WHILE THIS ROUND OF WEATHER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS EVENING.
TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION SO HAVE HANDLED WITH VC. LOOK FOR
UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
UPDATE...UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NW AR THIS MORNING AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE. DEEP MOISTURE FETCH IS EVIDENT
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NE
TOWARD SW MIDDLE TN. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE CURRENT
TRAJECTORY OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SW...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE MID STATE TODAY.
WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD...SO FAR THERE ARE NO WATCH
BOXES TO OUR SOUTH. BUT...GFS ELUDES TOWARD
DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE
RAINFALL WONT ARRIVE UNTIL A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. 850 MB
SPEEDS WILL RUN AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER
LOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS STILL IN LINE ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD. 3 HOUR GUIDANCE IS ROUGHLY AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. AREAL AVERAGES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS COULD SEE CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS THAT REACH OR
SURPASS THAT LEVEL. THEREFORE...FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE LOW TO MID 70S
TEMPS AT 18Z. SINCE HIGH TEMPS ARE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT
LEVELS...THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SO TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO THE TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ023>025-
056>058-060-061-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS/NEAR ALL TERMINALS AT
ISSUANCE. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-STATE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED
IN BETWEEN STORMS...BUT WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS/TS VIS AND CIG WILL
FALL INTO IFR CATEGORY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. IF A TERMINAL
EXPERIENCES ONE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS...HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 8-10KTS.
WHILE THIS ROUND OF WEATHER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS EVENING.
TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION SO HAVE HANDLED WITH VC. LOOK FOR
UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UNGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
UPDATE...UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NW AR THIS MORNING AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE. DEEP MOISTURE FETCH IS EVIDENT
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NE
TOWARD SW MIDDLE TN. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE CURRENT
TRAJECTORY OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SW...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE MID STATE TODAY.
WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD...SO FAR THERE ARE NO WATCH
BOXES TO OUR SOUTH. BUT...GFS ELUDES TOWARD
DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE
RAINFALL WONT ARRIVE UNTIL A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. 850 MB
SPEEDS WILL RUN AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER
LOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS STILL IN LINE ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD. 3 HOUR GUIDANCE IS ROUGHLY AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. AREAL AVERAGES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS COULD SEE CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS THAT REACH OR
SURPASS THAT LEVEL. THEREFORE...FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE LOW TO MID 70S
TEMPS AT 18Z. SINCE HIGH TEMPS ARE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT
LEVELS...THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SO TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO THE TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ023>025-
056>058-060-061-093>095.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
848 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.UPDATE...UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NW AR THIS MORNING AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE. DEEP MOISTURE FETCH IS EVIDENT
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NE
TOWARD SW MIDDLE TN. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE CURRENT
TRAJECTORY OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SW...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE MID STATE TODAY.
WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD...SO FAR THERE ARE NO WATCH
BOXES TO OUR SOUTH. BUT...GFS ELUDES TOWARD
DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE
RAINFALL WONT ARRIVE UNTIL A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. 850 MB
SPEEDS WILL RUN AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER
LOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS STILL IN LINE ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD. 3 HOUR GUIDANCE IS ROUGHLY AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. AREAL AVERAGES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS COULD SEE CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS THAT REACH OR
SURPASS THAT LEVEL. THEREFORE...FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE LOW TO MID 70S
TEMPS AT 18Z. SINCE HIGH TEMPS ARE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT
LEVELS...THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SO TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO THE TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MCS THAT IMPACTED THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING HAS EXITED THE MID
STATE...BUT NEXT MCS MOVING NE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI WILL AFFECT AREA
AIRPORTS DURING THE DAY TODAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
BRINGS SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CKV/BNA AROUND
15-16Z...WITH HRRR INDICATING PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE LATER TOWARDS 22Z AT CSV WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
.FLASH FLOOD POTENTAL REMAINS FOR PARTS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...
.POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IN THE MID STATE...
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM LOUISIANA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING AND DURING THE DAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR
2 INCHES IN A VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
JUICED TO THE HILT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
IN THE WATCH AREA AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL BE MAXED OUT. AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND RELATIVELY COOL 500 MBAR
TEMPS ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DESPITE LIMITED HEATING TODAY DUE
TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. I EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
TO WORK UP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS STORMS BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD. LOOKS TO ME LIKE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WILL THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS HERE IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE RETARDED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN.
ON WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ND INTO GREAT LAKES REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BACK DOWN
THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SO LOOK FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLIES DOMINATE
THE PATTERN WITH A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF SHORT WAVES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ023>025-
056>058-060-061-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
610 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MCS THAT IMPACTED THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING HAS EXITED THE MID
STATE...BUT NEXT MCS MOVING NE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI WILL AFFECT AREA
AIRPORTS DURING THE DAY TODAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
BRINGS SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CKV/BNA AROUND
15-16Z...WITH HRRR INDICATING PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE LATER TOWARDS 22Z AT CSV WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
..FLASH FLOOD POTENTAL REMAINS FOR PARTS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...
..POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IN THE MID STATE...
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM LOUISIANA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING AND DURING THE DAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR
2 INCHES IN A VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
JUICED TO THE HILT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
IN THE WATCH AREA AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL BE MAXED OUT. AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND RELATIVELY COOL 500 MBAR
TEMPS ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DESPITE LIMITED HEATING TODAY DUE
TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. I EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
TO WORK UP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS STORMS BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD. LOOKS TO ME LIKE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WILL THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS HERE IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE RETARDED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN.
ON WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ND INTO GREAT LAKES REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BACK DOWN
THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SO LOOK FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLIES DOMINATE
THE PATTERN WITH A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF SHORT WAVES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ023>025-056>058-
060-061-093>095.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1130 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NEXT ROUND IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
LINE EXPANDING AND BLOSSOMING OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURE GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
BELLES
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE FOR EARLY JUNE TRACKING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS GIVES US CAUSE FOR ATTENTION. FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL OVERSPREADING OUR FORECAST
AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ENHANCED
SHEAR CAUSES A CONCERN FOR A TORNADIC POTENTIAL INTO THIS
EVENING.
ON TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LINGERING UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE SHOULD
FINALLY END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.
ON THURSDAY WE MAY CATCH A BREAK FROM THE RAIN...HOWEVER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HEATING AS
ONE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES JUST EAST OF OUR AREA...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BUILD ALOFT INTO OUR REGION...NEVERTHELESS WITH HIGH SOIL MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
BELLES
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NEXT ROUND OF SHRAS/TSRAS IS ALREADY STREAMING TOWARD THE
MIDSOUTH. AT KMEM...KMKL AND KTUP CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AS MORE SHRAS/TSRAS OVERSPREAD
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON AREAL
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR SO
CONTINUED WITH A VCTS THROUGH 11/03Z.
FOR KJBR...EXPECT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSRAS AT KJBR
WILL BE WITH THE UPPER LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR OCNL IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON TUESDAY.
WIND WILL BE SOUTH 7-9 KTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND 12 KTS TUESDAY
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.AVIATION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AND THE TERMINALS. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY AT KAUS...HAVE TAKEN MENTION OF
RAIN AND THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AS CHANCES ARE DECREASING. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS NUMERICAL MODELS...IN ADDITION TO THE WRF
SIMULATED SATELLITE HINT AT A DECK OF CLOUDS COMING IN BETWEEN THE
CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND THE WEAK FRONT TO THE WEST. BECAUSE OF
THIS HAVE KEPT THE HIGH END MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS (8-12Z) AT THE
I-35 TAF SITES. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 11-13Z CAUSING AN INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. KDRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL HELP STABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. ELSEWHERE...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER.
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE... SEE NO
REASON TO ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES.
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS...WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE LINEAR MCS THAT MOVED
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
TRIED TO FORM OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY/CAPE AND THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
SHORT-LIVED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TONIGHT AS FRONT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD FORCING. HOWEVER...HAVE
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS AND WHERE SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MAY TRACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND HAVE RESTRICTED SLIGHT
CHANCES TO THE FAR EAST IN THE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS. NO RAIN AND A
WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS
BUILDS IT INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE OTHER MODELS
KEEP IT OVER MEXICO. THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND ALONG
A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND EVEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS...GEM AND NAVGEM
SHOW A DRY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SILENT 10S AND KEEP
MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD THE MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD THE ECMWF...THEN POPS WOULD LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH READINGS OF 100 TO 105.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 91 68 95 75 / 30 - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 91 66 94 74 / 30 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 67 95 73 / 30 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 88 66 92 71 / 30 - - - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 98 74 103 77 / 20 - - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 88 67 93 74 / 30 - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 69 99 74 / 30 - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 67 94 73 / 30 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 91 69 93 75 / 40 20 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 93 70 96 75 / 30 - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 70 97 75 / 30 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL HELP STABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. ELSEWHERE...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER.
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE... SEE NO
REASON TO ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES.
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS...WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
AVIATION...
HAVE MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. THE
AIRMASS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WAS STABILIZED ENOUGH BY THE MCS
EARLIER IN THE DAY SO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THAT SAID ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
VISIBLE ON RADAR. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP IN FROM 01-04Z JUST FOR
SHOWERS RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. A COUPLE
HOURS OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE WEAK
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10-13Z TOMORROW
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. HAVE LEFT THE TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS SERRANIAS DEL BURRO THUNDERSTORMS MAY WORK THEIR
WAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER LATER THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE LINEAR MCS THAT MOVED
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
TRIED TO FORM OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY/CAPE AND THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
SHORT-LIVED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TONIGHT AS FRONT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD FORCING. HOWEVER...HAVE
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS AND WHERE SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MAY TRACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND HAVE RESTRICTED SLIGHT
CHANCES TO THE FAR EAST IN THE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS. NO RAIN AND A
WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS
BUILDS IT INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE OTHER MODELS
KEEP IT OVER MEXICO. THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND ALONG
A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND EVEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS...GEM AND NAVGEM
SHOW A DRY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SILENT 10S AND KEEP
MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD THE MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD THE ECMWF...THEN POPS WOULD LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH READINGS OF 100 TO 105.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 91 68 95 75 / 30 - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 91 66 94 74 / 30 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 67 95 73 / 30 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 88 66 92 71 / 30 - - - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 98 74 103 77 / 20 - - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 88 67 93 74 / 30 - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 69 99 74 / 30 - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 67 94 73 / 30 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 91 69 93 75 / 40 20 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 93 70 96 75 / 30 - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 70 97 75 / 30 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
250 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA...WILL HAVE A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE RAIN BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
AS OF 900 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS ATMOSPHERE
INSTABILITY WANES. LEANED POPS TONIGHT TOWARDS THE HIRESW-ARW AND
HRRR WHICH CAPTURED THIS EVENINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE
BEST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHAPED TOWARDS THE LAMP GUIDANCE FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S. FOR TUESDAY...A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 550 PM EDT MONDAY...
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT TO MATCH UP
WITH WSR-88D KFCX TRENDS. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW SPREAD CONVECTION
EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR
LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS EVENING.
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CUT OFF SO FAR BY DRY AIR ALOFT
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE OROGRAPHIC AIDED REGIONS. HOWEVER
SEEING SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ACROSS THE SOUTH-
EAST AHEAD OF A FAINT WAVE...REMNANT OF THE EARLIER TN VALLEY
MCS...THAT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS NW NC THIS EVENING. MOST
GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTH AND SW SO LEAVING IN A LOW POP MAINLY
SOUTHERN HALF THIS EVENING... AND ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH. OTRW FORCING REMAINS LIMITED
TONIGHT AS COULD EASILY SEE THINGS GO BASICALLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE BUT GIVEN LACK OF
SHRA SO FAR APPEARS COVERAGE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LOW
SPOTS OUT EAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV LOWS IN MOUNTAINS
PER LOWER DEWPOINTS WHILE TRENDING TOWARD THE NAM OUT EAST OF THE
FRONT.
THIS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY AS SE HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE RIDING NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST LIFT AGAIN WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE TO
THE WEST WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS LACKING OVERALL ACROSS
THE REGION WITH WEST WINDS ALOFT CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE DOES DEEPEN WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WHILE ANY
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH DOWN THE FRONT GETS DAMPENED
UPON SPILLING EAST INTO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. APPEARS BEST
FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE THE
FRONT/DEEPER MOISTURE INTERSECT AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY POSSIBLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL BACKING TO A
MORE SW COMPONENT TAKES SHAPE. ELSW THINKING MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE DESPITE HIGH THETA-E AND INSTABILITY PER STRONG HEATING
ESPCLY OUT EAST. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF AFTERNOON LIKELYS FAR WEST AND BLUE RIDGE SW OF
ROANOKE. HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO 90 SE PIEDMONT PER EARLY DOWNSLOPE...AND 80S ELSW OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND FAR NW WHERE CLOUDS MAY AGAIN HOLD
VALUES IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP HEAD NORTHEAST
TO NEAR AND THEN ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...RESULTING IN A
SLOW MOVING...ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL SLOW MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THEN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR
REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THIS PERIOD...CULMINATING WITH PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CHANCE OF
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THE ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY OF
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRANSLATE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD...THERE WILL BE TREND TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
READINGS EACH DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
ONLY SOME NARROW WINDOWS FOR LIMITED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST REGION.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...OR EVEN SLOWER MOVING DETACHED UPPER LOW
OUTSIDE THE MAIN JET STREAM...WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A 12 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING STILL OCCURRING...WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FEATURE WILL MAKE LIMITED MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIMITED CONVECTION...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WILL BE EITHER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON EAST OF THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING. ITS INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND REBOUND ONLY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME BEING...THE LULL
LASTING INTO LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ENTERS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY LOW AND MID CLOUDS TO START...WITH CIRRUS
BLOWOFF FROM THE APPROACHING MCS OVER TENNESSEE SOON TO ENTER THE
AREA. CLOUD COVER IS PATCHY IN NATURE...AND WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE
IN VISIBILITIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE IN MOST LOCATIONS IS AT OR NEAR
SATURATION. AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER SCATTERS/THINS EVEN FOR A
SHORT WHILE MAY FOG DOWN QUICKLY. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS KEEPING
CEILINGS VFR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH KBLF AND OTHER AREAS ALONG
WEST FACING SLOPES WILL LOCALLY BECOME IFR AS THE FLOW BANKS
MOISTURE AGAINST THE NEARBY TERRAIN.
CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE AS HEATING
KICKS IN...HOWEVER EXPECT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EJECTING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO APPROACH BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. AS SUCH...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT THAT HAVE ENTERED TSRA INTO ALL TAFS...ALTHOUGH TIMING
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
AIRPORTS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
DAY. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...LIMITING VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN 1SM AS THEY PASS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THAT THE DECREASE IN
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE GRADUAL HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...OPENING INTO A TROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS
THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE...
WITH THE THREAT FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS ALSO INCREASING. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING THUS RESULTING IN A MULTIPLE DAY THREAT
FOR SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WED-FRI
WITH A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THUS...PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. WITH THE FRONT
JUST SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL AROUND...WILL
SEE MORE OF AN ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THREAT FOR CONVECTION
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
111 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA...WILL HAVE A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE RAIN BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
AS OF 900 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS ATMOSPHERE
INSTABILITY WANES. LEANED POPS TONIGHT TOWARDS THE HIRESW-ARW AND
HRRR WHICH CAPTURED THIS EVENINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE
BEST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHAPED TOWARDS THE LAMP GUIDANCE FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S. FOR TUESDAY...A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 550 PM EDT MONDAY...
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT TO MATCH UP
WITH WSR-88D KFCX TRENDS. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW SPREAD CONVECTION
EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR
LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS EVENING.
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CUT OFF SO FAR BY DRY AIR ALOFT
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE OROGRAPHIC AIDED REGIONS. HOWEVER
SEEING SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ACROSS THE SOUTH-
EAST AHEAD OF A FAINT WAVE...REMNANT OF THE EARLIER TN VALLEY
MCS...THAT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS NW NC THIS EVENING. MOST
GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTH AND SW SO LEAVING IN A LOW POP MAINLY
SOUTHERN HALF THIS EVENING... AND ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH. OTRW FORCING REMAINS LIMITED
TONIGHT AS COULD EASILY SEE THINGS GO BASICALLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE BUT GIVEN LACK OF
SHRA SO FAR APPEARS COVERAGE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LOW
SPOTS OUT EAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV LOWS IN MOUNTAINS
PER LOWER DEWPOINTS WHILE TRENDING TOWARD THE NAM OUT EAST OF THE
FRONT.
THIS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY AS SE HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE RIDING NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST LIFT AGAIN WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE TO
THE WEST WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS LACKING OVERALL ACROSS
THE REGION WITH WEST WINDS ALOFT CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE DOES DEEPEN WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WHILE ANY
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH DOWN THE FRONT GETS DAMPENED
UPON SPILLING EAST INTO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. APPEARS BEST
FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE THE
FRONT/DEEPER MOISTURE INTERSECT AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY POSSIBLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL BACKING TO A
MORE SW COMPONENT TAKES SHAPE. ELSW THINKING MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE DESPITE HIGH THETA-E AND INSTABILITY PER STRONG HEATING
ESPCLY OUT EAST. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF AFTERNOON LIKELYS FAR WEST AND BLUE RIDGE SW OF
ROANOKE. HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO 90 SE PIEDMONT PER EARLY DOWNSLOPE...AND 80S ELSW OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND FAR NW WHERE CLOUDS MAY AGAIN HOLD
VALUES IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP HEAD NORTHEAST
TO NEAR AND THEN ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...RESULTING IN A
SLOW MOVING...ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL SLOW MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THEN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR
REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THIS PERIOD...CULMINATING WITH PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CHANCE OF
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THE ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY OF
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRANSLATE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD...THERE WILL BE TREND TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
READINGS EACH DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
ONLY SOME NARROW WINDOWS FOR LIMITED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST REGION.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...OR EVEN SLOWER MOVING DETACHED UPPER LOW
OUTSIDE THE MAIN JET STREAM...WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A 12 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING STILL OCCURRING...WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FEATURE WILL MAKE LIMITED MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIMITED CONVECTION...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WILL BE EITHER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON EAST OF THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING. ITS INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND REBOUND ONLY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT MONDAY...
FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO EJECT OUT OF SLOW MOVING CENTRAL
U.S. UPPER LOW IMPACTING THE CWA NOW...WITH SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ROA/LYH AND
VCTS FOR DAN FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF IN ANTICIPATING OF
THIS ACTIVITY SKIRTING THROUGH THE AREA. -SHRA NOTED ALSO IN FAR
SW VA...WHICH COULD IMPACT BLF/BCB LATER...BUT LIKELY WILL
DISSIPATE. MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH -SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AS THIS FIRST WAVE PASSES BY. CLOUD COVER AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS PROBLEMATIC. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER...BUT SOME OF EACH IS POSSIBLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LWB...GENERALLY PLANNING ON MVFR VSBYS AND MOST CIGS AOA LOW END
VFR. FOR TUE...A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NE TOWARD THE CWA
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SIMILAR TO TODAY. A WARM ADVECTION WING
IS ALSO APPARENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL INTRODUCE VCTS FOR 18Z AND
BEYOND WITH MORE SPECIFIC TIMING OF TSRA TO FOLLOW IN LATER TAFS.
WINDS WSW 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SSW-SW 7-10KTS WITH
LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE ROA/DAN/BLF.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FOR MID WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEY WED/THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGH GETS CLOSER THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE WITH
THE THREAT FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS ALSO INCREASING. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING THUS RESULTING IN A MULTIPLE DAY THREAT
FOR SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WED-FRI
WITH A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THUS...PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. WITH THE FRONT
JUST SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL AROUND...WILL
SEE MORE OF AN ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THREAT FOR CONVECTION
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
949 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
MAIN OVERNIGHT FOCUS IS ON THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. TIMING
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR WITH
BRINGING THIS BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT THEN
SHOULD GET INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD 3-5AM AND OUT OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. 0-3KM MUCAPE CONTINUES TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON DOWN TO AROUND 300-500 J/KG. SO THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCALLY
PRETTY LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME
GUSTY TO AROUND 25-35MPH AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THOUGH AND
THE WINDS COME TO AN END.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
AT 3 PM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN KANSAS
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HUDSON BAY. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE FOUND
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR...AND THEN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...
MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC AND DEEPEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FRONT. MEANWHILE MUCH OF THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL GO TO SATURATING THE VERY DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE HIGHEST CHANCES /55 TO
65 PERCENT/ OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FOUND ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS INTERSTATE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES
RANGING FROM 24 TO 54 PERCENT.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND
THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES...FALLING FROM 14C AT
12.12Z...TO 6 TO 8C BY 12.18Z...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER AT THIS
DEVELOPMENT AND MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY ON SATURDAY. THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF. WITH THIS MIND...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
FIRST WILL OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THEN FOLLOW CORFIDI VECTORS
SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI. MEANWHILE THE SECOND COMPLEX DEVELOPS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS COMPLEX
WILL ALSO FOLLOW CORFIDI VECTORS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION...BUT
THE CAPE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG AND THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INTO MORE
STABLE AIR.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE GFS MOVES THIS FRONT NORTH TO THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE ECMWF KEEPS THIS FRONT CLOSER TO INTERSTATE
80. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...OPTED
TO STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TAF PERIOD ARE MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND
COLD FRONT AFTER 09Z AT RST AND LSE TAF SITES...AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER CHANCES WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DIURNAL SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES. COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 21Z THURSDAY. THE
LATEST 11.18Z GFS/NAM MODELS SHOW THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z- 14Z THURSDAY. INSTABILITY ALONG THE
COLD FRONT IS MINIMAL AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF
SITES. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VICINITY OF SHOWERS AT BOTH
TAF SITES AFTER 08Z AT RST AND 10Z AT LSE. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
GRADIENT TIGHTENING BEHIND FRONT AND ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY
30 KNOTS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WATER VAPOR AND RAP MODEL 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS AMBLING
EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL.
MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF CIRRUS TIED
TO THE LOW COVERING MOST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED LOW KICKING NORTHEAST TO NEAR
KSTL BY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS COOLS THE AIR ALOFT FOR STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR BLUE
RIVER SHOWS CAPE OF 100-200J/KG WITH A CAP IN THE 700-600MB
LAYER...SO THINKING THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL...AND THUS REMOVED
MENTION FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO TOP OF IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARD
NORTHEAST IL BY 12Z. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN WI AS THAT CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND DRIFTS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO
REGION LATER ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT DEPARTING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DURING THE
MORNING...BUT NAM SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE AROUND 1100J/KG WITH 20-25KT
OF BULK SHEAR. THIS IS BASED ON SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
60S. THINKING THIS IS A BIT HIGH WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MORE IN THE
50S. THEREFORE...REALIZED CAPE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 500-
1000J/KG RANGE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON CONVECTION FOR A WIND THREAT.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND COLD FRONT. ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE 3-8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS
THE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 7-11C RANGE. MODEL CONSENSUS
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS/SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. ECMWF GENERATES 1000-1500J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WITH 20-25KT
OF BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SEVERE
THREAT.
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT THEN LAYS OUT AND BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/CENTRAL IA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL TROUGHS LOOK TO RIPPLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MISSOURI WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TONIGHT KEEPING SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE TAF SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE AREA CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1017 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE STAYED SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER SO FAR
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH THROUGH LATE
MORNING. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR DO MOVE A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF
SHOWERS DO BEGIN TO CROSS THE BORDER.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE QUITE EXPANSIVE AND OPAQUE CURRENTLY...WHICH
IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR THE TEMPERATURE TO RISE VERY QUICKLY.
WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IF THIS CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...SHOWERS HAVE STAYED SOUTH OF THE WI/IL
BORDER SO FAR THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH
THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR DO MOVE A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MONROE TO SHEBOYGAN.
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE AREAS OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. COULD SEE SOME LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES IN AREAS
OF MODERATE RAIN.
THOUGH THE RAIN WILL WIND DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOWER CIGS MAY HANG ON RIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON EASTWARD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER OK WILL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD DURING THIS PERIOD
REACHING E CENTRAL IL BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR
NORTH IT WILL TRACK ALONG WITH ITS MDT RAINFALL...BUT A CONSENSUS OF
MODELS SUGGESTS RAIN IS LIKELY OVER SE WI TNT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL WI. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NW SIDE
OF THE LOW WHERE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE PRESENT...AND
SUPPORTED BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA. PWS WILL RISE UP TO 1.4 INCHES IN FAR
SE WI WITH SOUNDINGS BECOMING FAIRLY SATURATED. THUS PCPN EFFICIENCY
WILL BE HIGH WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL. CURRENTLY FORECASTING
ABOUT ONE HALF INCH SOUTH OF MKE BUT EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER MORE OR LESS OCCURS THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
BEFORE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TNT...EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SRN WI AS INITIAL WARM ADVECTION AND
PVA MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKE. WAS TEMPTED TO GO COOLER WITH TEMPS
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TRENDS BUT MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR
AT TIMES.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
RAIN WILL LIKELY HANG ON OVER SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH WED MORNING UNTIL
THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH CAN MOVE EASTWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
LOOK FOR RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SOME SUNSHINE WEST OF MADISON IN THE AFTERNOON...SO RAISED
MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S. CLOUDS AND AN EASTERLY BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S IN SOUTHEAST WI.
QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN WED NIGHT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE. WARM ADVECTION AS WINDS TURN FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
THEN SOUTH WILL BRING LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER. INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A COLD FRONT WILL TREK THROUGH WISCONSIN ON THU...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THERE ARE STILL SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE EXTENT OF ANY PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS. WITH
SOUTHERN WI IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION...THE 850MB FRONT TIED TO THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...AND LITTLE MOISTURE... THE
DYNAMICS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOME OF
THE LARGER-SCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. THEREFORE...SHOWERS WITH A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE PROBABLE ALONG THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MEAGER CAPE VALUES AND MINIMAL SHEAR.
TEMPS SHOULD HAVE TIME TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN SOUTHEAST WI. THU NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
ANOTHER FANTASTIC STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THESE SHORTWAVES
OVER SOUTHERN WI IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
WARM...AT LEAST IN THE UPPER 70S BUT MORE LIKELY THE 80S.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER OK WILL MOVE TO EAST CENTRAL IL AND EVENTUALLY
INTO MI LATE TNT AND WED. THE LOW WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER FAR SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN LIKELY OVER THE
SE WI TAF SITES TNT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BUT CIGS OF
1.0-3.0 KFT AND MVFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TNT WITH THE RAINFALL. THE
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AM.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
641 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WATER VAPOR AND RAP MODEL 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS AMBLING
EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL.
MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF CIRRUS TIED
TO THE LOW COVERING MOST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED LOW KICKING NORTHEAST TO NEAR
KSTL BY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS COOLS THE AIR ALOFT FOR STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR BLUE
RIVER SHOWS CAPE OF 100-200J/KG WITH A CAP IN THE 700-600MB
LAYER...SO THINKING THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL...AND THUS REMOVED
MENTION FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO TOP OF IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARD
NORTHEAST IL BY 12Z. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN WI AS THAT CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND DRIFTS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO
REGION LATER ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT DEPARTING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DURING THE
MORNING...BUT NAM SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE AROUND 1100J/KG WITH 20-25KT
OF BULK SHEAR. THIS IS BASED ON SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
60S. THINKING THIS IS A BIT HIGH WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MORE IN THE
50S. THEREFORE...REALIZED CAPE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 500-
1000J/KG RANGE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON CONVECTION FOR A WIND THREAT.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND COLD FRONT. ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE 3-8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS
THE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 7-11C RANGE. MODEL CONSENSUS
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS/SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. ECMWF GENERATES 1000-1500J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WITH 20-25KT
OF BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SEVERE
THREAT.
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT THEN LAYS OUT AND BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/CENTRAL IA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL TROUGHS LOOK TO RIPPLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
AN EASTERLY FLOW OF DRY AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HELP MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
AROUND RST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ITS TOO LOW TO EVEN
INCLUDE A VCSH AT THIS TIME. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO STAY AT OR
BELOW 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
LATEST STAGE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA AS OF 07Z WAS 11.9
FEET. THE RIVER APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR
11.9 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WATER VAPOR AND RAP MODEL 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS AMBLING
EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL.
MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF CIRRUS TIED
TO THE LOW COVERING MOST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED LOW KICKING NORTHEAST TO NEAR
KSTL BY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS COOLS THE AIR ALOFT FOR STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR BLUE
RIVER SHOWS CAPE OF 100-200J/KG WITH A CAP IN THE 700-600MB
LAYER...SO THINKING THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL...AND THUS REMOVED
MENTION FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO TOP OF IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARD
NORTHEAST IL BY 12Z. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN WI AS THAT CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND DRIFTS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO
REGION LATER ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT DEPARTING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DURING THE
MORNING...BUT NAM SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE AROUND 1100J/KG WITH 20-25KT
OF BULK SHEAR. THIS IS BASED ON SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
60S. THINKING THIS IS A BIT HIGH WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MORE IN THE
50S. THEREFORE...REALIZED CAPE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 500-
1000J/KG RANGE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON CONVECTION FOR A WIND THREAT.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND COLD FRONT. ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE 3-8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS
THE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 7-11C RANGE. MODEL CONSENSUS
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS/SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. ECMWF GENERATES 1000-1500J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WITH 20-25KT
OF BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SEVERE
THREAT.
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT THEN LAYS OUT AND BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/CENTRAL IA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL TROUGHS LOOK TO RIPPLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
HIGH LEVEL VFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KANSAS MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...THE 10.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF BOTH TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS BEEN SUGGESTING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS NOW THAT
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST A SCATTERED DECK AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET OR SO AND HAVE OPTED
TO INCLUDE THIS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEN
EXPECTING ALL THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
LATEST STAGE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA AS OF 07Z WAS 11.9
FEET. THE RIVER APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR
11.9 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
422 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY MAINTAINING DEEP W/SW FLOW AND HIGHER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR MODELS DO NOT GENERATE MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
THE AREA AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THINNING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL
LEAD TO SUFFICIENT HEATING TO START OFF THE DAY AND EASTWARD MOVING
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MORE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR LIFT WITH
COOLER TEMPS...AROUND -11C...AT 500MB. SO LIKELY RAIN CHANCES STILL
LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW...EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. HOWEVER
FARTHER NORTH IT IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE. WHERE IT DOES FORM
IT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST ONCE AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER AS LONG OVERNIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE EVENING AND RAIN CHANCES ENDING
OVER LAND AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING GENERALLY INTO THE LOW 70S.
FRI-SAT...EASTERN CONUS TROUGH GETS NUDGED EAST BY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROPS SE TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND
MAINTAINS CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE
SOME DRIER AIR MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FRI WHICH SHOULD
REDUCE STORM COVERAGE SLIGHTLY (40 PERCENT) NORTH OF ORLANDO.
HIGHER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS REQUIRES MAINTAINING
LIKELY (60 PERCENT) POPS. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH FRI WHICH WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW. AS
A RESULT...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN WITH
COLLISION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
ON SAT...WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND LESS WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A LESS DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND PRODUCE A SEA
BREEZE COLLISION A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND BUT STILL ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. EXPECT SCATTERED LATE AFTN STORMS THAT PUSH
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST IN THE EARLY TO MID EVE.
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN COOL 500 MB TEMPS
AROUND -10C. COMBINED WITH SOLAR HEATING TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE BUOYANCY...AS WELL AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS CONTAINING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL.
SUN-WED...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER GA/FL PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN/FILL. IN RESPONSE THE LOW LEVEL (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE AXIS
WILL REACH AND MAINTAIN ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION NEAR 30N LAT.
THIS WILL ALLOW AN EARLIER ONSET AND PENETRATION OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE WITH TIME. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED AFTN STORMS BUT THE FOCUS WILL INCREASINGLY BE OVER THE
INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN PENINSULA
MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE AND
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WITH THE STALLED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. W/SW WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS BECOME S/SW INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SW INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2
FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE. AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
FRI...OFFSHORE (W TO SW) FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. A LATE SEA BREEZE OUT OF THE SE
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST. A HIGH COVERAGE OF STORMS...SOME
STRONG...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE ESP SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3 FT OFFSHORE.
SAT-SUN...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS
THE WATERS WHICH WILL DECREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALLOW AN
EARLIER ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE ESP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STORMS OFFSHORE THE
FL PENINSULA SAT AFTN/EVE. ON SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
SO AFTN STORMS WILL TEND TO STAY OVER THE FL PENINSULA BUT SOME
PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR ESP NORTH OF THE CAPE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 88 71 90 71 / 60 30 40 20
MCO 90 72 92 71 / 60 20 40 20
MLB 87 73 90 72 / 60 30 50 20
VRB 87 71 90 71 / 60 30 50 20
LEE 90 73 92 73 / 60 20 40 20
SFB 90 73 92 73 / 60 20 40 20
ORL 90 74 92 74 / 60 20 40 20
FPR 87 72 89 71 / 60 30 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE CONTINUED CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS
DIMINISHING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE
BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHED INSTABILITY AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST
FRIDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED WITH A SECOND TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY
ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LOW...MAINLY
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. TEMPS
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. FOR FRIDAY READINGS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS NOW SHOWING THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN
UPPER RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS KEEPS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY MID-
WEEK...DEEPER TROUGH TAKES HOLD IN THE WESTERN STATES...HELPING TO
BUILD A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT TYPICALLY SUMMER PATTERN OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CSRA AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS. DO NOT THINK TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BUT WILL
CARRY VCSH FOR AN HOUR AT AGS/DNL 06Z-07Z. RAINS FROM EARLIER
TODAY AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY PROVIDE
LIFR/IFR STRATUS CIGS 08Z-12Z ALL TERMINALS. DNL ALREADY CARRYING
LIFR CIGS AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 13Z.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP IMPROVE RESTRICTED CONDITIONS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z. THE
HEATING WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THESE WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
349 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
Showers and Thunderstorms working their way eastward across the
forecast area with the stronger activity already east of the
turnpike at this time. Expect to see downward trend for next few
hours, with weaker area of showers and isolated embedded thunder
to work its way east to west out of the area by the noon hour.
Expecting highs generally in the lower to middle 70s as cool
advection at 850mb battles with sunshine and daytime heating. Warm
advection aloft returns overnight over nocturnal inversions, and
still anticipate lows in the 50s across the area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
Friday mid level temperatures rise several degrees C and should
boost highs back to the upper 70s near 80 with dry conditions
expected. After weak mid level ridging moves over aloft on Friday,
west to southwest flow returns early Saturday. This should bring
overnight lows up a bit back into the upper 60s near 60 followed
by highs in the middle 80s. GFS still generates QPF during the
daytime hours but think cap is strong enough without a strong
lifting mechanism to keep only clouds at this time. Think better
chances for storms come late in the day as storms fire along the
dryline in western central Kansas and northward along the front in
Nebraska. The shortwave trof moving across the northern plains
sends front southward in the evening and overnight hours. Could
see development of some kind of MCS but still differences in
models and timing and will keep forecast more general at this time
with high chances for precipitation Sunday shifting west to east
through the day. Storms could be strong to severe with this
system.
Mon-Wed...Still uncertainty for early next week as to where
boundary ends up for Monday and how fast the next upper trof
coming onshore the west coast in this period can move eastward.
Kept precipitation chances each day and does look like an overall
warming trend is in order with highs back in the upper 80s near
90.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
Showers and Thunderstorms should continue moving east through the
morning. The latest HRRR seems to have a good handle on the
overall progression. Therefore have adjusted the timing in the
forecasts based on the HRRR. Biggest uncertainty is whether MVFR
conditions will move in. OBs upstream generally show VFR
conditions, even within the stratiform rain. Therefore have backed
off on the MVFR conditions and will monitor trends.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
226 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
GRIDS AND ZONES WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY FOR THE CANCELLATION OF
THE REMAINDER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE ADDITION OF GOVE COUNTY TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282. ALSO UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON
WORDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS BEING SEVERE. A COLD FRONT OVER
NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AS
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE...AND THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX...SO USED THIS ALONG WITH
NAM AND SREF FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. DEBATED ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT INDICATE ANY FOG AND
JUST HINTED AT LOW STRATUS. THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE
ABLE TO GET A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THAT SITUATION LATER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO UPPER
50S EAST.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA AND SLIDE SOUTH AND THEN EAST. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A
FEW LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM RELATE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME STAGNANT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE TRI
STATE AREA WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL FORECASTS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
FOLLOWING A SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS LESS THAN STELLAR FOR AGREEMENT. MOST
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE JET POSITION...WHICH WILL BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DISAGREEMENT BECOMES
MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS BRING
IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH WOULD INSINUATE A MORE DRY PATTERN.
HOWEVER...GFS AND DGEX BRING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA. ALL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY HAS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR TUESDAY...BUT DIFFERENCES ARE
APPARENT HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY REGARDING HOW LONG
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.
DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS NOT VERY GOOD AT THIS POINT. MODEL RUNS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN INDICATING ACTIVE WET WEATHER...BUT
NOW GUIDANCE IS MIXED. THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS A
BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITHOUT MAJOR CHANGES...WHICH LEAVES
SOME CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AFTER COLDER
AIR MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER SOME FORECASTS SHOW MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. DEPENDING
ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EVOLVES LATER IN THE WEEK WILL DETERMINE
HOW AREAL TEMPERATURES UNFOLD. UNTIL MODEL FORECASTS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS LAYER AND MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
SUNRISE BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES
AT KGLD AND KMCK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
100 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough kicking
eastward across the Central Plains today. Meanwhile, weak upper
level ridging across the Intermountain West will move eastward
across the Northern and Central Rockies through this afternoon
and through the Western High Plains tonight. Along with a fairly
weak flow aloft and somewhat drier air moving southward into
western Kansas behind a departing cold front early this morning,
generally dry conditions are likely through tonight across central
and southwest Kansas. Although, a few lingering showers/isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across south central Kansas early
this morning in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
Much cooler temperatures are likely today as cooler air surges
southward into western Kansas today behind a departing cold front.
The NAM/GFS show H85 temperatures falling to around 15C across
central Kansas today with near 20C across extreme southwest Kansas.
As cloud cover decreases through this afternoon, highs can be
expected up into the 70s(F) to near 80F. Look for lows down into the
mid to upper 50s(F) tonight as southeasterly winds quickly return to
western Kansas while surface high pressure slides southeast out of
the Northern Plains into the Central Plains of Iowa, Missouri, and
eastern Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
All of the morning NMM/ARW and NAM models in addition to several
runs of the HRRR indicate high confidence in convection developing
early this evening and spreading rapidly eastward into central
Kansas as a QLCS. Models indicate a marked in increase in layer
precipitable water through the late afternoon and evening, with
SREF QPF values in excess of an inch. MUCAPES around 2000 J/KG in
early afternoon were also forecast to increase to in excess of 3000
J/kg. This pre-storm environment thermodynamic in combination with
ample 30 knots of deep bulk shear will be conducive to gaining a
high confidence in a few rotating updrafts initially in our
northwest counties or basically anywhere from around Kearny county
through Scott City and Dighton. These hail producers will quickly
develop a cold pool generating widespread slab-like convection
eastward into central Kansas though mid evening with damaging wind
the highest threat followed by potential for hail and flooding from
very heavy rainfall. This morning`s flash flood guidance for 3 hours
was as low as 2 inches across portions of the area still outlined by
a flood watch, which will make flooding to occur easily in some of
the areas that have had in excess of 400% of normal rainfall in the
last week or more.
Beyond this evening`s high probability convection episode, north
surface winds will develop behind the convection as the front is
forced southward. Models have indicated potential for showers and
probably elevated storms continuing into in the far south east areas
into the early daylight hours on Thursday. Much cooler conditions
ion cool advection are expected Thursday afternoon with highs
struggling through the 70s in most locations.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
Showers and thunderstorms will linger across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas overnight resulting in possible MVFR
cigs through daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through late Thursday
afternoon. Winds will become northerly around 20 to 30kt behind a
cold front pushing southeastward across south central Kansas early
this morning. Winds will become northeasterly while subsiding to
around 10 to 20kt Thursday afternoon as surface high pressure
drifts southeast across the Northern Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 55 83 65 95 / 0 0 20 20
GCK 55 85 65 96 / 0 10 20 10
EHA 58 88 65 96 / 0 10 20 10
LBL 57 87 66 97 / 0 0 20 10
HYS 53 83 65 92 / 0 0 20 40
P28 57 84 65 89 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-
066-079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1117 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
GRIDS AND ZONES WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY FOR THE CANCELLATION OF
THE REMAINDER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE ADDITION OF GOVE COUNTY TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282. ALSO UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON
WORDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS BEING SEVERE. A COLD FRONT OVER
NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AS
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE...AND THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX...SO USED THIS ALONG WITH
NAM AND SREF FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. DEBATED ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT INDICATE ANY FOG AND
JUST HINTED AT LOW STRATUS. THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE
ABLE TO GET A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THAT SITUATION LATER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO UPPER
50S EAST.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA AND SLIDE SOUTH AND THEN EAST. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A
FEW LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE
TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.
AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE NOT DOING WELL. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTH
CENTRAL UPPER TROUGH. THIS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY BUT IS WORSE
TODAY. OVERALL THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE SREF
LOOKED TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE
AND WIND FIELD. THE GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN...SREF TENDED TO DO THE
BEST WITH THE NAM TOO WARM AND THE UKMET TOO COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHOWN YESTERDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE AMOUNT OF CINH. THE NAM
HAS AREA FULLY CAPPED WITH THE GFS LEAVING OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURRING. THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPORT KEEPING THE AIR MASS CAPPED. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY BUT WILL
BEAR WATCHING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LARGE PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS HAVE COME UP ON THEIR SPEEDS WITH
NEAR TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WESTERN HALF FOR MOST
OF THE DAY INTO EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAMPED THE WINDS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
MAIN SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BUT WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SHARPENING DRY LINE IS SETTING
UP NEAR TO OR JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTABILITY AXIS AND
MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO SETS IN THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE CINH IN THIS
AREA. SO ADD A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE
MAXES WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR TO TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE NIGHT. MODELS DO DEVELOP A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THIS PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT ARE TALKED ABOUT IN THE NEXT
PERIOD START SHOWING UP HERE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE OUTPUT LOOKING TO BE AFFECTING BY
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. ESSENTIALLY THE WEST TO NORTHWEST HALF LOOKS TO
HAVE A RIGHT RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECT THIS AREA FROM LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. FRONT
IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THAT
IN ADVANCE OF IT THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE SURGES SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY LOW DEWPOINTS EXCEPT RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THE EML AND THE SURFACE DRY LINE IS LOCATED. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT PROFILE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREAS. SO CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL GET HOT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER
THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO EXPANDED. CURRENTLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WILL
HAVE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES. IF THE FUELS WERE FAVORABLE THE WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY BECOMES GREATER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ESSENTIALLY
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SAME IDEA BUT DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. BUT
ESSENTIALLY NO MATTER WHICH WAY YOU WANT TO GO...OUTPUT SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED ACTIVE/WET PATTERN.
THE ONE TENDENCY THAT THE ENSEMBLES LOOK TO BE TRENDING TOWARD IS A
MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW...SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG/FAR SOUTH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A SLOWER AND
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WHICH TENDS TO SUPPORT THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION.
OVERALL THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT THE LATEST CRH_INIT RUN
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY REMAINS DRY WHILE THE AIR MASS RELOADS LATER
THAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT. THIS
FRONT THEN REMAINS EITHER NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AREA OR WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A NEW
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRING THROUGH SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND JET LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS.
THAT COMBINED WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH THE QPF FIELDS INDICATING A MCS IN EACH OF THESE
NIGHTTIME PERIODS. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS LAYER AND MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
SUNRISE BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES
AT KGLD AND KMCK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING AND
CONTINING THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1212 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
Water vapor imagery showed the exiting mid-level trough advancing
into the Ohio River valley with a weak mid-level ridge stretching
across the Southern and Central Plains. A large mid-level trough was
situated over Canada and clipping the Northern Plains. Models show
this trough deepening and digging further south tonight, which will
help to push an area of low pressure and an associated cold front
eastward across the region. Additionally, a weak embedded shortwave
was noted on water vapor imagery over northern Colorado. Models are
in good agreement in this wave strengthening as it gets caught up in
the frontal passage, with an MCS potentially developing overnight
and tracking southeastward across the state. Short-range model runs
have been consistent in keeping conditions dry across the region
through early to mid evening, with the SW- to NE-oriented cold front
likely advancing into north central Kansas between 03z-05z. The cap
that`s currently in place should weaken this evening, but lapse
rates don`t look to be that great with soundings showing deep
moist-adiabatic conditions. MUCAPE values may be upwards of
2500-2800 J/kg with 0-6km bulk shear upwards of 20-30kts, so these
conditions may be enough to get a few strong to severe thunderstorms
to develop through late this evening as this line of storms enters
into north central Kansas. The threats with the strongest storms
would be large hail and damaging winds. However, another concern
will be for the potential for some heavy rain and localized flash
flooding as PWAT values are upwards of 1.7-1.9 inches. Many
locations received 2-4" of rain from Monday`s system, resulting in
very saturated ground, so the 1-hour flash flood guidance for much
of the region is 1.5-1.9 inches. So this flash flood concern will
need to be monitored through the overnight hours. As the cold
front tracks across the region overnight, widespread post-frontal
showers and thunderstorms are expected with north central Kansas
likely drying out by Thursday morning. This cold front should be
southeast of the area by mid morning with the post-frontal
precipitation over eastern Kansas diminishing by late morning
through early afternoon.
As for temperatures, southerly winds and mostly clear skies allowed
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. With
the increasing cloud cover overnight from the precipitation, low
temperatures will be a bit warmer tonight with lows only dropping
into the low/mid 60s. The combination of gradually decreasing cloud
cover and northerly winds behind the front will result in
below-normal temperatures for Thursday with highs only expected to
reach into the middle/upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
A ridge of high pressure builds southeastward across eastern KS
Thursday night with mostly clear skies and calm winds toward
morning. This could lead to some patchy dense fog for areas of east
central KS around sunrise Friday. Temps are expected to be cool
with lows in the middle 50s. On Friday, the high moves off to the
east while low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies, turning
the winds to south. Highs are not expected to be too warm with
mainly upper 70s expected.
A piece of the western U.S. trough comes out onto the Plains
Saturday and Saturday night with increasing chances for
thunderstorms by Saturday evening. The front associated with this
trough stalls near Kansas for the early to middle part of next week
with disturbances in broadly cyclonic upper flow periodically moving
through. While the best dynamics should be to our north, there will
be enough lift with these systems in proximity to the front to give
chances for thunderstorms each day. High temperatures for the
weekend through the middle part of next week should be mostly in
the 80s. With increasing low-level moisture, overnight lows from
Sunday through Wednesday are forecast in the upper 60s to around
70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
Showers and Thunderstorms should continue moving east through the
morning. The latest HRRR seems to have a good handle on the
overall progression. Therefore have adjusted the timing in the
forecasts based on the HRRR. Biggest uncertainty is whether MVFR
conditions will move in. OBs upstream generally show VFR
conditions, even within the stratiform rain. Therefore have backed
off on the MVFR conditions and will monitor trends.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level shortwave trough pushing eastward across the Western High
Plains. Meanwhile, a weak upper level ridge of high pressure is
transitioning eastward across the Intermountain West. Near the
surface, a cold front is shifting southeastward out of western
into central Kansas. Ample low level moisture lingers across
western Kansas behind a departing cold front with observed
surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s(F).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
A surface cold front extended from eastern South Dakota to near
Sidney, Nebraska slowly moving south through the Northern High
Plains. An are of relative low pressure was developing over
southeast Colorado with an attendant inverted surface trough
extending northward toward the cold front. Regional WSR88D composite
reflectivity was already showing clusters of surface based
thunderstorms developing off the Palmer Divide as well as the Sangre
de Cristo regions in Colorado. Ahead of the frontal boundary,
southerly winds were in place with surface dew points in the upper
50s to around 60 degrees across the eastern Counties. Drier air
existed west of Highway 83 where dew points were in the mid 40s but
increasing.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
All of the morning NMM/ARW and NAM models in addition to several
runs of the HRRR indicate high confidence in convection developing
early this evening and spreading rapidly eastward into central
Kansas as a QLCS. Models indicate a marked in increase in layer
precipitable water through the late afternoon and evening, with
SREF QPF values in excess of an inch. MUCAPES around 2000 J/KG in
early afternoon were also forecast to increase to in excess of 3000
J/kg. This pre-storm environment thermodynamic in combination with
ample 30 knots of deep bulk shear will be conducive to gaining a
high confidence in a few rotating updrafts initially in our
northwest counties or basically anywhere from around Kearny county
through Scott City and Dighton. These hail producers will quickly
develop a cold pool generating widespread slab-like convection
eastward into central Kansas though mid evening with damaging wind
the highest threat followed by potential for hail and flooding from
very heavy rainfall. This morning`s flash flood guidance for 3 hours
was as low as 2 inches across portions of the area still outlined by
a flood watch, which will make flooding to occur easily in some of
the areas that have had in excess of 400% of normal rainfall in the
last week or more.
Beyond this evening`s high probability convection episode, north
surface winds will develop behind the convection as the front is
forced southward. Models have indicated potential for showers and
probably elevated storms continuing into in the far south east areas
into the early daylight hours on Thursday. Much cooler conditions
ion cool advection are expected Thursday afternoon with highs
struggling through the 70s in most locations.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
Showers and thunderstorms will linger across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas overnight resulting in possible MVFR
cigs through daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through late Thursday
afternoon. Winds will become northerly around 20 to 30kt behind a
cold front pushing southeastward across south central Kansas early
this morning. Winds will become northeasterly while subsiding to
around 10 to 20kt Thursday afternoon as surface high pressure
drifts southeast across the Northern Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 78 55 83 / 90 10 0 0
GCK 57 77 55 85 / 60 10 0 10
EHA 58 78 58 88 / 40 10 0 10
LBL 58 79 57 87 / 60 10 0 0
HYS 58 77 53 83 / 90 10 0 0
P28 64 80 57 84 / 90 40 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
063>066-077>081.
FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-066-
079>081.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1131 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
.AVIATION...
DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/06Z TAF FORECAST...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT
WEATHER THROUGH 12/13Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS. AFTER 13Z...
SCATTERED TSTMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL
ENTER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING FLIGHT HAZARDS
INCLUDING SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS...SEVERE TURBULENCE AND
MARGINAL CIGS AND VSBYS. THE STORMS MAY DISSIPATE OR BECOME ISOLATED
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BRINGING FLIGHT HAZARDS TO MOST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGH 06Z. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTION W OF I-35 CORRIDOR IN TX AND
WHETHER IT OR AFFECT THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z NAM DID NOT
REALLY INITIALIZE WELL WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST
GFS IS SOMEWHAT BETTER. 00Z RUN OF THE HRRR DEPICTS THESE STORMS
MAKING A SERN TURN AND NOT AFFECTING THE CWA...WHILE AN MCS
ORGANIZES ACROSS SW KS/NW OK AND MOVES SEWD TO JUST NW OF THE AREA
BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR
THE HRRR. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
OUR FAR NW ZONES DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE OTHER GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST OBS BUT MIN TEMP FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW ALOFT HAS BROUGHT MILD JUNE TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES
TO THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS A BIT DECEPTIVE. A
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RIDE EWD
AROUND THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND DOWN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS OUR WAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NEWD. SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE ON THE HORIZON AFTER FRIDAY.
TEMP-WISE...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUE TO STAY RIGHT ON-PAR WITH
SEASONAL NORMALS. RAINFALL/WET SOILS HAVE LIMITED TEMPS FROM
RATCHETING UP ABOVE NORMAL...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 91 72 88 70 / 10 20 60 40 10
MLU 66 90 71 87 68 / 10 20 60 50 20
DEQ 63 86 65 85 65 / 10 60 60 20 10
TXK 67 88 69 85 67 / 10 30 60 30 10
ELD 64 89 68 85 65 / 10 20 60 40 10
TYR 70 90 71 87 71 / 20 30 60 20 10
GGG 68 90 71 88 70 / 10 30 60 30 10
LFK 71 92 73 91 72 / 10 20 50 40 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
444 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...
ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES
ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED
FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE
FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED
OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT
BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING
TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY DIED
OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE DRY.
WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN
NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND
THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS.
TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT
SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME
VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW
IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE.
THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS
KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS
OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS
TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY
FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE
OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W.
THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT.
INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS
MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST
NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY
CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE
TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME
LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH.
POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED.
GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT
CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES.
THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD.
PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS.
PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO
OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL
AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
PER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE 12-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY CONTAINS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE (IF NOT HIGHER CHANCES) OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AT LEAST
SOME PORTION OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE TWO MAIN POINTS
THAT NEED TO BE MADE RIGHT OFF THE TOP: FIRST OF ALL...BY FAR AND
AWAY THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...AND THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. ALONG THESE LINES...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED
A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA TO PART OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS DAY 3
OUTLOOK TECHNICALLY ONLY HIGHLIGHTS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF
THE CWA...THIS FORECASTER IS OF THE OPINION THAT ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD CONSIDER ITSELF TO BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS POINT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
SLIGHT RISK EXPANDED IN AREA AS IT GETS INTO THE DAY 2 AND
EVENTUALLY DAY 1 TIME FRAME. THE SECOND MAIN POINT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ESPECIALLY BY THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND THE PLACEMENT
AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS DURING THESE FINAL 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST
ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE. GIVEN THIS INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY...MOST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME PERIODS ARE NO
HIGHER THAN 20S-30S...AND ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MODESTLY
HIGHER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...HAVE TRIMMED OUT THE
MENTION OF 50 POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURE WISE...MADE FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS
6-DAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED TO TOP OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S ON MOST DAYS. HOWEVER...PROBABLY THE MOST
CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS SATURDAY...WHICH
ALSO HAS A CHANCE AT BEING THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CURRENT FORECAST NUDGED UP HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES...GETTING
MORE OF THE CWA INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S
SOUTHWEST...THERE COULD EASILY BE ROOM FOR FUTURE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS...AS SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA COULD FLIRT WITH LOW-90S...WITH SOUTHWEST AREAS
POTENTIALLY EVEN UPPER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MOST NIGHTS ARE
AIMED IN THE SEASONABLY-TYPICAL UPPER 50S-MID 60S RANGE...SO NOT
FORESEEING ANY BIG SURPRISES HERE.
AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED POTENTIAL HAZARDS...ITS BEEN AWHILE
SINCE FORECAST SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE REALLY COME CLOSE TO SOLIDLY
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH. AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT ADVERTISE ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS...ITS AT LEAST
LOOKING LIKE MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA COULD
APPROACH IT ON SATURDAY. ON BOTH DAYS...THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GETTING INTO A BIT MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AND IN RESPONSE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 20 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND MORE SO 25-30 MPH IN THE WEST (WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OF COURSE). ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT...QUESTIONS ABOUT SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL ARISE...AS SOME MODELS ARE BONE DRY WHILE OTHERS GENERATE
AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE AXIS OF A
VERY STRONG 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AS
EVIDENT BY 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY...OPTED TO STAY THE COURSE AND LEAVE THE
EVENING PERIOD VOID OF POPS...WHILE BLANKETING MOST OF THE CWA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...A ROGUE STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND ITS ALSO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE ROBUST EVENING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA TRIES TO SURVIVE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO AT LEAST WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED OFF THE TOP THIS 24-HOUR
PERIOD LIKELY COMMANDS THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST ATTENTION FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. COMPARED TO THE SEVERE EVENT
THAT JUST OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY SETUP LOOKS
TO BE MORE POTENT WITH A GREATER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS ARE LIKELY OVER-DOING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE A BIT...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST 2000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 50-60KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE DEPARTING FRI NIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CAPPED AS THE POTENT MID/UPPER WAVE SLIDES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AM EXPECTING RATHER VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY LIKELY TIED TO A
FAIRLY NARROW ZONE ALONG THE INVADING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
LIKELY TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY RIPE
FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A WIND THREAT POSSIBLY ENHANCED
BY UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING A NOTABLE TORNADO THREAT...CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THIS
POSSIBILITY EITHER ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE THE LONGEST. HYDRO-
WISE...COULD EASILY SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA RECEIVING A QUICK 1-
2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...BUT FORTUNATELY A GENERALLY DRY 48
HOURS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE ANY MORE THAN
LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE MOST PART. POPS FOR MOST
OF THE CWA ARE STILL IN THE LIKELY 60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
SOME AREAS.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IN REALITY THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY
DRY/STORM-FREE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS...BUT AT LEAST
FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT POP IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE
MORNING JUST IN CASE A LITTLE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY STILL
LINGERS...AND HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST
1/3 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE PRIMARY MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF/GFS START TO INCREASINGLY DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF GENERALLY
KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOCAL FLOW MORE QUASI-ZONAL WITH VARIOUS PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS
TIME...UNCERTAINTY IS FAR TOO HIGH TO EVEN PINPOINT A TIME FRAME
WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE. POPS ARE LARGELY A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AND FOR NOW THE HIGHEST 40 POPS ARE
FOCUSED ON MONDAY DAYTIME BUT ITS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT WAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND EVEN SURFACE
PATTERNS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS GET INCREDIBLY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE
ANOTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A VERY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...WHILE THE GFS IS COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS ARE GENERALLY AGREEING ON DRY CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH LOW-END 20-
30 POPS UNTIL THINGS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC AROUND 20K FT.
N-NNW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BUT THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AS HIGH AS 25 KTS. IT SHOULD BE BRIEF SO IT WAS
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU: VFR. CLEARING. N WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH A LITTLE GUSTINESS
POSSIBLE 13Z-16Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU EVE: VFR SKC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
RECENT RAINFALL: AS ANTICIPATED LAST EVENINGS STORMS DEVELOPED
PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN WAS NARROW AND STRETCHED ACROSS ROOKS-OSBORNE-
JEWELL COUNTIES. LOOKING AT ESTIMATED RAINFALL FOR THE PAST 4
WEEKS...THE AREA FROM THE TRI-CITIES SE TO HEBRON AND NE TO
COLUMBUS HAS SEEN A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES. THE SW
HALF OF THE FCST AREA /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/ HAS SEEN A 2-6
INCH SURPLUS OR 125-200% OF NORMAL.
UPSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS...RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 2 WKS HAS BEEN 200-600% OF NORMAL. THAT HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE PLATTE RVR SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. THE FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR WRN DAWSON
COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING AROUND GOTHENBURG. FCSTS INDICATE THAT
BOTH THE N AND S BRANCHES AT COZAD WILL APPROACH OR WERE ALREADY
NEAR ACTION STAGE. KEARNEY IS FCST TO CREST JUST SHORT OF FLOOD
STAGE THIS WEEKEND AND WE ISSUED AN ESF /HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ AT 1109
PM LAST EVENING FOR THIS. GRAND ISLAND IS FCST TO RISE TO ACTION
STAGE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE PLATTE RVR SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR WATER
LEVELS VIA THE RIVER&LAKES LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF OUR
WEBPAGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
HYDROLOGY...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...
ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES
ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED
FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE
FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED
OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT
BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING
TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY
DIES OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE
DRY.
WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN
NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND
THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS.
TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT
SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME
VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW
IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE.
THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS
KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS
OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS
TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY
FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE
OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W.
THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT.
INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS
MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST
NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY
CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE
TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME
LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH.
POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED.
GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT
CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES.
THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD.
PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS.
PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO
OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL
AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE BY 430 AM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC AROUND 20K FT.
N-NNW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BUT THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AS HIGH AS 25 KTS. IT SHOULD BE BRIEF SO IT WAS
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU: VFR. CLEARING. N WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH A LITTLE GUSTINESS
POSSIBLE 13Z-16Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU EVE: VFR SKC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
RECENT RAINFALL: AS ANTICIPATED LAST EVENINGS STORMS DEVELOPED
PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN WAS NARROW AND STRETCHED ACROSS ROOKS-OSBORNE-
JEWELL COUNTIES. LOOKING AT ESTIMATED RAINFALL FOR THE PAST 4
WEEKS...THE AREA FROM THE TRI-CITIES SE TO HEBRON AND NE TO
COLUMBUS HAS SEEN A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES. THE SW
HALF OF THE FCST AREA /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/ HAS SEEN A 2-6
INCH SURPLUS OR 125-200% OF NORMAL.
UPSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS...RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 2 WKS HAS BEEN 200-600% OF NORMAL. THAT HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE PLATTE RVR SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. THE FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR WRN DAWSON
COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING AROUND GOTHENBURG. FCSTS INDICATE THAT
BOTH THE N AND S BRANCHES AT COZAD WILL APPROACH OR WERE ALREADY
NEAR ACTION STAGE. KEARNEY IS FCST TO CREST JUST SHORT OF FLOOD
STAGE THIS WEEKEND AND WE ISSUED AT ESF /HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ AT
1109 PM LAST EVENING FOR THIS. GRAND ISLAND IS FCST TO RISE TO
ACTION STAGE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE PLATTE RVR SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR WATER
LEVELS VIA THE RIVER&LAKES LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF OUR
WEBPAGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
HYDROLOGY...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1227 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
WW 285 WAS CANCELLED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO. ONE LAST BAND OF TSTMS HAS
FORMED AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM YORK-FRANKLIN. MOVEMENT WAS SE
20-25 MPH. LOTS OF ANVIL DEBRIS REMAINS OVER N-CNTRL KS.
THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM GENEVA NEB-PLAINVILLE KS.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY 2 AM. MADE
SOME SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO LINGER RAIN A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A ~110KT JET STREAK NEAR
MAINE AND A ~55KT JET STREAK OVER WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 12Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AS
WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE AN
AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT /
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE
LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND A WEAK DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...CLEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TONIGHT...WITH THIS SURFACE LOW THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE WARM FRONT / STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR MUCH OF OUR CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA POST-FROPA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT LIFT ALONG THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEAR AS THROUGH THEY WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WHAT LITTLE CIN WILL BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE
AREA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 1KM WRF-NMM...1KM WRF-ARW AND HRRR ALL
SUGGEST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR CWA AROUND 00Z...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS 23Z. THESE DATA DO NOT SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL BE
OVERLY WIDESPREAD ...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE AND THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR AREA...BUT IT CERTAINLY APPEARS HIT AND MISS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION COULD INCREASE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE
PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATION
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD ~20% POPS
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTING AT 23Z THIS EVENING...WITH POPS
THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 70% ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CWA
00-06Z. POPS ARE THEN TAPERED OFF TO NEAR ZERO HEADING INTO THE
DAY THURSDAY.
ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
READINGS NEAR 60...ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AS THE SHORT WAVE BRUSHES OUR AREA TO THE NORTH...SHOULD
PROMOTE RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO
NEAR 3000J/KG WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF ~25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THE
UPDRAFTS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLEAR THE
AREA TONIGHT...A TRULY COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL NOT
LIKELY INFILTRATE OUR AREA UNTIL THE DAY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS SHOULD BE REALIZED TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL THEN
PROMOTE COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH IT REMAINING DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN UPPER LEVELS OVER THE PLAINS...SET
UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH
THE ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY...THESE FEATURES SLIDE EAST...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...ENDING UP TO THE EAST BY
FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
PATTERN ON THURSDAY NIGHT
...WITH CONTINUED LIGHTER NE/E WINDS...BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT A
REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH NEAR 80 IN THE
EAST TO MID 80S IN THE WEST.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PAC NW
HAVING SHIFTED EAST IN CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH AN 50-ISH+ KT LLJ IN PLACE. SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT ALL
ARE IN AGREEMENT /THE EC IS DRY/...SHOWING THE AREA CAPPED WITH
BETTER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ZONES OF THE LLJ. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
GOING AFTER 06Z. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIES WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE APPROACHING FROM THE NW/W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/PERHAPS EARLY
EVENING...DEPENDING ON CAPPING...BEFORE CONTINUING ITS TREK E/SE
THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MODELS SHOWING A GOOD COMBO OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN COMING MODEL RUNS.
THINKING THAT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY WOULD MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE BY BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...LEAVING THE REST OF THE DAY
DRY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS ON SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO
REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NEAR 80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN IN PLACE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH. LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/LOCATION THIS FAR
OUT...SO KEPT POPS LOW...HARD TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC AROUND 20K FT.
N-NNW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BUT THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AS HIGH AS 25 KTS. IT SHOULD BE BRIEF SO IT WAS
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU: VFR. CLEARING. N WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH A LITTLE GUSTINESS
POSSIBLE 13Z-16Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU EVE: VFR SKC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1149 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
WW 285 WAS CANCELLED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO. ONE LAST BAND OF TSTMS HAS
FORMED AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM YORK-FRANKLIN. MOVEMENT WAS SE
20-25 MPH. LOTS OF ANVIL DEBRIS REMAINS OVER N-CNTRL KS.
THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM GENEVA NEB-PLAINVILLE KS.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY 2 AM. MADE
SOME SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO LINGER RAIN A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A ~110KT JET STREAK NEAR
MAINE AND A ~55KT JET STREAK OVER WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 12Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AS
WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE AN
AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT /
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE
LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND A WEAK DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...CLEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TONIGHT...WITH THIS SURFACE LOW THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE WARM FRONT / STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR MUCH OF OUR CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA POST-FROPA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT LIFT ALONG THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEAR AS THROUGH THEY WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WHAT LITTLE CIN WILL BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE
AREA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 1KM WRF-NMM...1KM WRF-ARW AND HRRR ALL
SUGGEST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR CWA AROUND 00Z...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS 23Z. THESE DATA DO NOT SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL BE
OVERLY WIDESPREAD ...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE AND THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR AREA...BUT IT CERTAINLY APPEARS HIT AND MISS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION COULD INCREASE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE
PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATION
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD ~20% POPS
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTING AT 23Z THIS EVENING...WITH POPS
THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 70% ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CWA
00-06Z. POPS ARE THEN TAPERED OFF TO NEAR ZERO HEADING INTO THE
DAY THURSDAY.
ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
READINGS NEAR 60...ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AS THE SHORT WAVE BRUSHES OUR AREA TO THE NORTH...SHOULD
PROMOTE RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO
NEAR 3000J/KG WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF ~25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THE
UPDRAFTS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLEAR THE
AREA TONIGHT...A TRULY COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL NOT
LIKELY INFILTRATE OUR AREA UNTIL THE DAY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS SHOULD BE REALIZED TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL THEN
PROMOTE COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH IT REMAINING DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN UPPER LEVELS OVER THE PLAINS...SET
UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH
THE ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY...THESE FEATURES SLIDE EAST...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...ENDING UP TO THE EAST BY
FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
PATTERN ON THURSDAY NIGHT
...WITH CONTINUED LIGHTER NE/E WINDS...BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT A
REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH NEAR 80 IN THE
EAST TO MID 80S IN THE WEST.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PAC NW
HAVING SHIFTED EAST IN CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH AN 50-ISH+ KT LLJ IN PLACE. SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT ALL
ARE IN AGREEMENT /THE EC IS DRY/...SHOWING THE AREA CAPPED WITH
BETTER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ZONES OF THE LLJ. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
GOING AFTER 06Z. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIES WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE APPROACHING FROM THE NW/W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/PERHAPS EARLY
EVENING...DEPENDING ON CAPPING...BEFORE CONTINUING ITS TREK E/SE
THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MODELS SHOWING A GOOD COMBO OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN COMING MODEL RUNS.
THINKING THAT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY WOULD MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE BY BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...LEAVING THE REST OF THE DAY
DRY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS ON SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO
REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NEAR 80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN IN PLACE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH. LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/LOCATION THIS FAR
OUT...SO KEPT POPS LOW...HARD TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR KGRI. AT 645 PM
CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF SAINT PAUL TO NEAR
WOOD RIVER...AND OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THE FIRST ECHO
ON RADAR IS DUE NORTH OF KGRI...JUST NORTH OF ST LIBORY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL CERTAINLY BE IN THE KGRI VICINITY
THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...AT WHICH POINT THEY SHOULD ALL HAVE PASSED
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 10 PM AT KGRI. THE WIND WILL TURN
TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY 01Z TO 02Z. THE WIND WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID. PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1125 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
18Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WITH AVAILABLE REMOTE SENSING
DATA REVEALS THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SANDHILLS REGION...AT THE NORTHERN DOOR OF KLBF. 19Z HAND
ANALYSIS INDICATED A TONGUE OF 60+ TD/S ARCING NORTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WHEELER AND GARFIELD
COUNTIES...WITH OTHER 60+ TD/S NOTED POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG AND WITHIN THE PLATTE RIVER BASINS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 19Z
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN KVTN...TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. AVAILABLE
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FETCH OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH THE CAP BEING
BREACHED AFTER 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TREND OF THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAS BEEN TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST /15-16Z/ RUN OF THE HRRR NOW INDICATING THE ONLY CONVECTION
FIRING IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
WHEELER COUNTY. THE LATEST RAP13 SHOWS A SIMILAR TREND...BUT
SLIGHTLY MORE AMBITIOUS WITH FIRING CONVECTION BY 21Z. WILL FOLLOW
THE EASTWARD TREND OF THE NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS AND CUT BACK POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND EAST CONSIDERABLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATER
THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO A EASTWARD ADVANCING
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE. THE AVAILABLE NEAR TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE EVENTUAL MERGER OF STORMS INTO A EASTWARD
PROPAGATING MCS THAT MAY BRUSH OUR FAR SOUTHWEST...BUT THE TREND OF
THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH...SO WITH THAT STORM
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ARE FADING AS WELL. IF THE CAP IS
BREACHED AND STORMS FIRE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...STEEP LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE WOULD
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY TSTM WIND. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH LIGHT WIND AND CLEARING CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S IS FORECAST...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH CARVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR
US STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET CONVECTION WISE. THAT
WILL CHANGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
QUICKLY TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO REGION. SOME MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...BUT THE NOSE OF THE JET AND BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME THUNDER THOUGH...SO WILL
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THIS POINT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE BETTER CHANCE WILL COME SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD ROUGHLY EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR EWING TO COMSTOCK TO
CURTIS BY VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS CAP WEAKENS...AND DECENT UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. GOOD
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
SOME HEALTHY SB CAPES /NEARING 5000 J/KG/ AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT
CREATING GOOD SHEAR...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 45 KTS.
MODELS THEN AGREE THAT AN MCS SHOULD EVOLVE...WITH THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...AS STILL DECENT
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED CAPE COULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH STILL REMAINING TO OUR NORTHWEST. FRONT WASHES OUT
MONDAY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWEST BACK INTO
THE AREA. MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
SUPPORTING A POTENT SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING OUR AREA. GFS NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SO WILL
KEEP POPS 30 PERCENT OR BELOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH NCNTL NEB
EAST OF KVTN-KTIF OVERNIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY OVERNIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE RAP
MODEL. OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FROM 15Z THURSDAY ONWARD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE NORTH
PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER BASINS. THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND AND RAPID ROCKY MOUNTAIN
SNOW MELT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING....BUT THEN DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR
THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
502 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TODAY. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO
NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN
FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN
ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR
VIS AT SLK IN HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
CONT THRU 12Z...BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY
DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET
AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES
PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO
3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
431 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM PENNSYLVANIA.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED
ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH UNSETTLED
SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY. UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. WITH DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING...WE CAN EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
THURSDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY...SO CHANCES FOR SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST. BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING
MECHANISM FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING CONCERNS. DUE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
FORCING...THREAT OF THUNDER RATHER LOW THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED FOR SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.
RATHER HIGH POPS PREFERRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1 INCH TO AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. RATHER MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO
NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN
FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN
ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR
VIS AT SLK IN HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
CONT THRU 12Z...BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY
DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET
AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES
PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH
EXISTS BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT THESE SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE PRIMARILY IMPACTING OPEN
AREAS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM PENNSYLVANIA.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED
ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH UNSETTLED
SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY. UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. WITH DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING...WE CAN EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
THURSDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY...SO CHANCES FOR SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST. BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING
MECHANISM FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING CONCERNS. DUE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
FORCING...THREAT OF THUNDER RATHER LOW THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED FOR SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.
RATHER HIGH POPS PREFERRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1 INCH TO AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. RATHER MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND PASS WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY. SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS OUR CWA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED
THIS MENTION AT THIS TIME. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL BUT TREND ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR
VIS AT SLK IN HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
CONT THRU 12Z...BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY
DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET
AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES
PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH
EXISTS BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT THESE SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE PRIMARILY IMPACTING OPEN
AREAS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES/TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
409 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN
FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING
MCS IN OKLAHOMA. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
THE SETUP FOR TODAY IS AS FOLLOWS. SHORTWAVE #1 IN KANSAS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO CAUSE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
AND PROPAGATE FROM THE CURRENT MCS AND SHORTWAVE #1. IN GENERAL...
HIGH RES MODELS SHOW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTED LINE AND PUSHING TO THE EAST. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN
THE SHEAR AXIS ANALYZED ON THE CURRENT 0Z 850 MAP THIS MORNING
WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO RUN NORTH SOUTH FROM OUR AREA TOWARDS TYLER
TEXAS. HIGH MODELS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE PAST THIS TIME
FRAME. THE 4KM NCEP WRF INTENSIFIES THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP AND
MOVES IT INTO OUR AREA. THE TEXAS TECH WRF... HRRR ...AND RAP
WEAKEN THE PRECIP. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE PRECIP WEAKENING DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS
~1.5"). UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO APPEARS TO BE WEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO WIN OUT. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY
PRECIP THAT MIGHT CUT ACROSS. IT COULD ALSO BE QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN 850 BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND FOUR DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS THE QUESTION OF HOW
MUCH CIRRUS THE AREA WILL SEE THOUGH FROM CONVECTION OFF TO OUR
NORTH. IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT IF A COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH. MID 90S LOOKS
VERY LIKELY FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
THOUGH. ALONG THE COAST THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
TEMPS MORE TAME.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SHORTWAVE #2 CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
ARIZONA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AS IT MOVES
EAST AND ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE. THURSDAY EVENING IT IS
FORECASTED TO BE ENTERING CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE
SOME TYPE OF MCS FORMING AND HEADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA. BEFORE THIS THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS VARY GREATLY AND
THEREFORE PRODUCE VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS ON HOW THE LINE IS
HANDLED. AS OF CURRENT THE HRRR/ RAP HAVE SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE
BEST AND SHOW THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 0Z FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SECTION OF THE RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW A WEDGE OF PV TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT THE SIGNAL IS WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 1.8" WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG. BECAUSE OF THIS SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY THREATS APPEAR TO
BE WIND AND HAIL. FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY BUT GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW LARGE
INSTABILITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. DUE TO
THIS SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL FALL INTO THE CONVERGENT REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE AREA WILL START TO DRY OUT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. 23
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS DEEPENS.
THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 73 90 74 91 / 20 50 30 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 75 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 80 87 79 87 / 10 30 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
MAIN OVERNIGHT FOCUS IS ON THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. TIMING
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR WITH
BRINGING THIS BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT THEN
SHOULD GET INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD 3-5AM AND OUT OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. 0-3KM MUCAPE CONTINUES TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON DOWN TO AROUND 300-500 J/KG. SO THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCALLY
PRETTY LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME
GUSTY TO AROUND 25-35MPH AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THOUGH AND
THE WINDS COME TO AN END.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
AT 3 PM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN KANSAS
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HUDSON BAY. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE FOUND
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR...AND THEN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...
MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC AND DEEPEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FRONT. MEANWHILE MUCH OF THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL GO TO SATURATING THE VERY DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE HIGHEST CHANCES /55 TO
65 PERCENT/ OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FOUND ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS INTERSTATE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES
RANGING FROM 24 TO 54 PERCENT.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND
THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES...FALLING FROM 14C AT
12.12Z...TO 6 TO 8C BY 12.18Z...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER AT THIS
DEVELOPMENT AND MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY ON SATURDAY. THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF. WITH THIS MIND...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
FIRST WILL OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THEN FOLLOW CORFIDI VECTORS
SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI. MEANWHILE THE SECOND COMPLEX DEVELOPS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS COMPLEX
WILL ALSO FOLLOW CORFIDI VECTORS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION...BUT
THE CAPE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG AND THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INTO MORE
STABLE AIR.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE GFS MOVES THIS FRONT NORTH TO THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE ECMWF KEEPS THIS FRONT CLOSER TO INTERSTATE
80. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...OPTED
TO STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS BAND WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 2-3 HOURS WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY STAYING AT VFR AS THE RAIN COMES THROUGH...IF IT HITS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME
GUSTY INTO THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE. A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE
THROUGH BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
835 AM MST THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON. A BETTER CHANCE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOME DRYING AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER
BATCH OF MOISTURE CREEP INTO MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER FELL BACK TO AROUND .8 OR SO ON THE
MORNING SOUNDING WITH DEWPTS HOLDING ON TO 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
1 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO SLOSH BACK UP FROM THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING JUST ENOUGH FUEL WITH THE AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GOING. LATEST HRRR NOW JOINED BY
OTHER SHORT RANGE RESOLUTIONS FOCUSING ON AN AREA GENERALLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE RINCON MOUNTAINS (EAST OF TUCSON) AFTER 21-22Z. NOTHING
MAJOR AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND...BUT WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS. THAT
WEAK ELEVATED ACTIVITY ACROSS GRAHAM COUNTY YESTERDAY GENERATED A
GUST TO 43MPH AT SAFFORD AIRPORT. WE MADE FIRST AND EARLY SECOND
PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS IN MIND.
FRIDAY STILL LOOKS BETTER WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGH INFLUENCE. THE ONLY
THING TO KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING IS IF THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...DIRTY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
PW VALUES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 0.70"-0.85"...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR JUNE. SHOULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF. EUROPEAN MODEL
CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER MODEL AND HAVE LEANED THAT WAY...THUS
HAVEN`T MADE TOO MAY CHANGES TO WHAT DAYSHIFT LAID OUT YESTERDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MOISTURE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT STAYING CLOSE
BY TO OUR SOUTH...AS A STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOISTURE REMAINING CLOSE BY..THUS COULD SEE A
FEW STORMS APPROACH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF COCHISE COUNTY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS
AROUND NORMAL.
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS HAS LEANED MORE TOWARD EUROPEAN SOLUTION ON
TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTINA AND THUS IS NOT AS WET ACROSS THE AREA
AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. SO BASED ON THIS I MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES
TO THE POP FIELDS FOR NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER SONORA SHOULD BE ACTIVE
NEXT WEEK AND WE`LL LIKELY SEE INFLUXES OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.
A HISTORICAL NOTE ON CRISTINA. PER THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE
HURRICANE CENTER...CRISTINA IS THE EARLIEST SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE
FORMATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1971.
&&
.AVIATION...ENOUGH MOISTURE TODAY FOR A FEW -TSRA MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL THRU
13/15Z. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA DEVELOPING AFT 12/19Z...MAINLY NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF KTUS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFT 13/02Z. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL SURFACE
WINDS MORNING AND EVENING...GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WLY/NWLY AT
10-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE
WIND EAST OF KTUS. A BETTER CHANCE OF -TSRA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
EXPECTED FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE DRY SIDE...WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT PUSHES THE MOISTURE EAST OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SOME BREEZINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. SOME MOISTURE COULD
SEEP BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE 14TH STRAIGHT DAY WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS IN TUCSON. THIS WOULD BE THE 75TH SUCH OCCURRENCE (OF 14
CONSECUTIVE 100 DAYS) IN THE TUCSON CLIMATIC HISTORY...WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1894.
HERE IS AN ODD ONE. IN THE 1981-2010 DAILY NORMALS FOR TUCSON...THE
COLDEST NORMAL JUNE HIGH FOR TUCSON IS 97 DEGREES WHICH FALLS ON THE
1ST AND 2ND. WELL TODAY WILL BE THE 100TH STRAIGHT JUNE DAY THAT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN 97 DEGREES OR WARMER. THE LAST JUNE DATE
THAT HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW 97 DEGREES WAS ON JUNE 2 2011 WHEN
THE HIGH WAS 96.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/LADER/GLUECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
955 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
LATEST RUC AND HRRR RUNS APPEAR TO KEEP ANY DEVELOPING STORMS OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH OF DENVER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. WL GO
WITH ISOLD TSTMS FOR THE DENVER AREA WITH HIGHER COVERAGE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. GOOD SELY WINDS AT KDEN SO SHOULD SEE
DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP. BEST CHC OF ISOLD STG/SVR STORMS WL BE
WITH THIS BOUNDARY...AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER.
PLENTY OF BKN-OVC CEILINGS THIS MORNING WHICH WL LIKELY INHIBIT
HEATING IF IT CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN AND LESSEN THEN STRENGTH
OF ANY DEVELOPING STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
LATEST WIND PROFILER SHOWS ABOUT 4000 FEET OF UPSLOPE...ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A STRATUS DECK AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TIL
AROUND MID MORNING. THEN LOSS OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
ELIMINATE ANY SHOWERS AND DAYTIME HEATING GRADUALLY BURNING/
LIFTING THE STRATUS DECK. UNTIL THEN...ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG IN THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE CLOUD DECK INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN.
WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION...THE AIRMASS IS QUITE STABLE ON THE
PLAINS BUT MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM ENOUGH TO BREAK
CAP...ESPECIALLY ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN BETTER MOISTURE AND
HEATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND PARK
COUNTY. ON THE PLAINS...WE DO EXPECT A DENVER CYCLONE TO DEVELOP
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN/NEAR THE DENVER METRO AREA. IF TEMPS REACH THE
74-76 DEGREE RANGE...THEN WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIR CHANCE OF BREAKING
THE CAP MAINLY WITH THE BENEFIT OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. CAPES
WITH T/TD OF 76F/47F ARE NEAR 1200-1500 J/KG AND ENOUGH SHEAR TO
BRING POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. LCLS ARE LOW ENOUGH
AND LOW LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG THE DENVER CYCLONE COULD ALSO LEAD
TO A COUPLE LANDSPOUT TORNADOES...BUT...ONLY IF WE BREAK THE CAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ADVERTISED TO REACH THE HIGH COUNTRY
THIS EVENING SO CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING
THERE TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
SOME STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
EXPECT MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE STATE PUSHES EAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A DRY LINE IS PROGGED TO SET UP ALONG A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING DRY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
EAST. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THE DRIER AIR TO THE
WEST COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
PARK...HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL GREEN AT THIS POINT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE OFF THE DRY LINE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH LESS OF A WARM UP IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
BREEZY WINDS KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MODERATED ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE STATE SATURDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WETTER DAY. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL
AS THE PLAINS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I70.
MODELS UNFORTUNATELY ALREADY START DISAGREEING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NAM
BEING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO...HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WITH
THIS...DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. PAST
THIS...MODEL SPREAD GROWS BIGGER WITH THE ECMWF DRASTICALLY
CHANGING FROM ITS LAST RUN AND NOW KEEPS UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK....TRENDING TOWARD THE GEM
MODEL SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE GFS KEEPS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...SHOVING THE TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE. KEPT THE PREVIOUS
LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A COOLING TREND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
SELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KDEN THIS MORNING WITH A DENVER
CYCLONE DEVELOPING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN...BUT
STILL SOME ILS RESTRICTIONS WITH CIGS AROUND 5K FT WITH ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS. WL GO WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS THIS AFTN VS TEMPO
GROUP. THE BEST CHC OF STORMS WL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF KDEN AND KAPA WHERE THIS POTENTIAL LINE OF CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH OF RAIN
IN 30 MINUTES. STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KTS TO THE
EAST WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS AND RUNOFF...WITH ONLY
POTENTIAL TROUBLE IF A HIGHER INTENSITY STORM OCCURS OVER A BURN
SCAR. STREAMFLOWS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO SNOWMELT BUT BULK OF SNOWMELT HAS PASSED SO NO
ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...COOPER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND STRATUS HAS
STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALONG/NORTH
OF THE RATON RIDGE. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES IN ALOFT THOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE A SUBTLE FEATURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BACK ACROSS WESTERN
NV THAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES THROUGH THE RIDGE ACROSS CO
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FORCING LOOKS PRETTY WEAK WITH
THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOWS UP BEST IN THE PRESSURE FIELD ON THE 1.5
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SURFACE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PINNED UP IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS SUCH AS
THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS TODAY. CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH THIS MOISTURE MIXES OUT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THE AFFECT THIS HAS ON CAPE VALUES. NAM12 KEEPS
SFC DEWS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS IN THE 40S WITH POCKETS OF
MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME PLACES. GFS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...WHILE SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS LIKE RAP13 AND HRRR DROP DEW POINTS BACK INTO
THE LOWER 40S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. NAM12 CAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT
CERTAINLY THINK THAT UP TO 1000 J/KG IS DOABLE AS RAP SUGGESTS. 0-6
KM SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS...WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THE INSTABILITY BE
REALIZED. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS THEY DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WHERE A HEALTHY CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS WITH
ANY STORMS TODAY IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS TODAY. OF
COURSE WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS IMPACT THE BURN SCARS. THREAT TODAY LOOKS HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE OF STORMS IN HIGH
RES MODELS...THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER OUT WEST.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME STRATUS ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. -KT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS REGION STARTING FRIDAY...WITH WARM AND DRY AIR ADVECTING
INTO WESTERN CO. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON AVAILABLE LLVL
MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO SOUTHERN CO THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE.
THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE ADVANCING DRY
AIR...SO IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME CONVECTION FRI
AFTN AND EVE WILL BE ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE. SAT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO E
CO LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES OFF THE
MAX TEMP FOR THE PLAINS ON SUN...AS WELL AS BRING ISOLATED
CONVECTION BACK TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
F FOR THE PLAINS AND AROUND 80 F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS BOTH FRI AND
SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE EAST ON SUN. ONE THING TO
NOTE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
SAT...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT FUELS ARE IN
GREEN UP SO A FIREWX HIGHLIGHT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW FORECAST FOR THE STATE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH JUST ISOLATED MT CONVECTION
EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUE...WHICH SHOULD FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN INTO E CO FOR WED.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 F ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PLAINS BOTH MON
AND TUE...THEN DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR WED. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
MVFR TO VFR STRATUS WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH MID
MORNING. POCKETS OF IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. STRATUS WILL BURN OF BY
LATE MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...ALONG WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH. AS STORMS DRIFT OFF INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THEY SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO COOLER MORE STABLE AIR. THUS...KCOS AND
KPUB COULD COULD SEE A DWINDLING SHOWER IF ONE SHOULD MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS. KCOS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED AND WILL
MAINTAIN VCTS FOR THAT SITE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
TODAY AS WELL...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM THREATS TO BRIEF RAINFALL AND
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
940 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD THAT LED TO THE ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DIMINISHED WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE REMAINING THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIOD TODAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE CANOPY
OF CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS NOTED AROUND
GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES. IF THIS CLOUD COVERAGE MANAGES TO BURN OFF
OR BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...A COMBINATION OF THE PULSES OF ENERGY
WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. THE
MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT MIAMI SHOWED A VERY MOIST COLUMN
WITH A PW OF 1.74" AND DECENT LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850 AND 600MB.
THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE WAS AT 9.6 C DEGREES...WHICH WAS COLDER
THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS. CONSIDERING THE
RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE REALIZED IF THESE CONDITIONS
MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IF THE CLOUD COVERAGE MANAGES TO STAY IN
PLACE...THE CHANCES OF AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WILL BE LOWER. THE
LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY REFLECTS THIS LATTER SOLUTION OR MORE OF A
QUIET AFTERNOON PERIOD DUE TO THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS. CONSIDERING
THESE VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES...VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THIS PERIOD TODAY.
85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/
AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. MOSTLY STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
CURRENTLY SEEN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS RAIN SHIELD
CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. PLACED TEMPOS AT KMIA
AND KTMB THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH VCSH PREVAILING.
MAIN CONCERN ARE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IF CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN REMAIN PREDOMINANT...CONVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHED.
LATEST HRRR DEPICTS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AROUND MIDDAY SO
KEPT VCTS IN AT ALL SITES AFTER 17Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FRONT ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
WELL.
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND FRONT ARE WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, INCLUDING BOTH WATER VAPOR AND IR. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE FRONT STALLING OVER
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW, CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW. THE MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING THE 500MB TEMPS TO BE AROUND -10C TODAY, WHICH IS
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALSO, THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING IS SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE
500MB, WITH SOME DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO HIGHER DOWNBURST POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN,
ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER, SHOWING AT AROUND 12800 FT, INSTEAD OF 14K.
THE NCAPE WILL BE ABOVE 1 THIS AFTERNOON, INDICATING STRONGER
UPDRAFTS THAN YESTERDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOWER FREEZING
LEVEL MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL IN LOCALIZED AREAS
TODAY. SO STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE AND A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
OF THEM TO BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND. STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN, BUT
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING A LITTLE BIT FASTER TODAY.
TOMORROW WILL SEE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH, BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH MANY OF THE PARAMETERS LOOKING SIMILAR TO
TODAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A REMNANT OF THE TROUGH SITTING AS A WEAK
ENCLOSED LOW OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE AT 500MB REMAINS AROUND -10C THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHEN IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WARM. THIS MAY HELP TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH ANY SEA BREEZES THAT DEVELOP
WILL PROBABLY CAUSE CONVECTION TO OCCUR.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY, WHICH WILL
PUSH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR WESTWARD, TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. THUS, HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS IN THAT DIRECTION.
AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
CONVECTION MAY SLOW DOWN SOME. WHILE MODELS ARE COMING IN MAINLY
DRY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY, HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN STALL THROUGH TOMORROW, BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MAINLAND, WHICH MAY MOVE OVER COASTAL WATERS. BY THE WEEKEND,
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO
BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 3 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 70 89 72 / 60 20 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 72 89 74 / 60 20 50 20
MIAMI 88 71 90 74 / 60 20 50 20
NAPLES 88 72 88 74 / 60 20 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
810 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. MOSTLY STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
CURRENTLY SEEN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS RAIN SHIELD
CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. PLACED TEMPOS AT KMIA
AND KTMB THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH VCSH PREVAILING.
MAIN CONCERN ARE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IF CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN REMAIN PREDOMINANT...CONVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHED.
LATEST HRRR DEPICTS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AROUND MIDDAY SO
KEPT VCTS IN AT ALL SITES AFTER 17Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FRONT ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
WELL.
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND FRONT ARE WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, INCLUDING BOTH WATER VAPOR AND IR. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE FRONT STALLING OVER
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW, CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW. THE MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING THE 500MB TEMPS TO BE AROUND -10C TODAY, WHICH IS
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALSO, THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING IS SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE
500MB, WITH SOME DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO HIGHER DOWNBURST POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN,
ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER, SHOWING AT AROUND 12800 FT, INSTEAD OF 14K.
THE NCAPE WILL BE ABOVE 1 THIS AFTERNOON, INDICATING STRONGER
UPDRAFTS THAN YESTERDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOWER FREEZING
LEVEL MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL IN LOCALIZED AREAS
TODAY. SO STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE AND A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
OF THEM TO BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND. STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN, BUT
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING A LITTLE BIT FASTER TODAY.
TOMORROW WILL SEE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH, BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH MANY OF THE PARAMETERS LOOKING SIMILAR TO
TODAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A REMNANT OF THE TROUGH SITTING AS A WEAK
ENCLOSED LOW OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE AT 500MB REMAINS AROUND -10C THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHEN IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WARM. THIS MAY HELP TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH ANY SEA BREEZES THAT DEVELOP
WILL PROBABLY CAUSE CONVECTION TO OCCUR.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY, WHICH WILL
PUSH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR WESTWARD, TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. THUS, HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS IN THAT DIRECTION.
AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
CONVECTION MAY SLOW DOWN SOME. WHILE MODELS ARE COMING IN MAINLY
DRY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY, HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN STALL THROUGH TOMORROW, BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MAINLAND, WHICH MAY MOVE OVER COASTAL WATERS. BY THE WEEKEND,
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO
BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 3 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 70 89 72 / 70 20 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 72 89 74 / 70 20 50 20
MIAMI 88 71 90 74 / 70 20 50 20
NAPLES 88 72 88 74 / 60 20 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1049 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS NE TX THIS MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
DEFINITELY MADE A COME BACK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...THE AIR HAS THAT SWALLOW YOU FEEL TO IT WHEN YOU WALK
OUTSIDE. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS EVERYTHING COVERED QUITE
WELL...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE THIS MORNING BEING THE INCLUSION OF
SMALL POPS ACROSS THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND HRRR GUIDANCE...NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THIS INITIAL ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO REACH THAT FAR
SOUTH AND/OR SEE NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERATED ALONG SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATING OUTFLOWS.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E GULF...KEEPING
A FAIRLY LIGHT S FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS INLAND ARE MAINLY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS NEAR 70S TO THE LOWER 70S
PREVAIL.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SE ACROSS KS/N OK THIS MORNING
IS PRODUCING A LARGE MCS OVER C OK. THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SSE TODAY AND ACROSS
NE TX/N LA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS
SHOW REGENERATION/CONTINUATION OF THIS COMPLEX AS IT CONTINUES SSE THIS
EVENING. WITH AMPLE INFLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT...ITS EXPECTED TO KEEP
ITS INTENSITY THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.
FOR THIS...SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA FOR AREAS
JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THRU 12Z FRI. KEPT THE INCREASING
POP TREND BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF SE
TX/W LA...WITH THE HIGHER POPS SPREADING SSE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SE TX/C AND S LA BETWEEN 06-18Z FRI.
FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ONLY ISO SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE DIMINISHES A BIT...AND WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON
HEATING. FOR MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM TX...FURTHER LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO...EXPECT
TEMPS TO INCREASE A BIT...WITH MID/UPPER 70S FOR LOWS...AND
LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 90 76 87 74 / 10 40 50 30
KBPT 90 76 87 74 / 10 40 50 20
KAEX 92 72 87 70 / 20 50 50 20
KLFT 91 75 87 73 / 10 30 50 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JAN 12 2014
CLEARING IS IN PROGRESS...BUT AS THE WRF GOES-R SIMULATED FOG
PRODUCT SUGGESTED...MVFR STRATUS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS N-CNTRL NEB
AND WAS DROPPING S INTO THE FCST AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
AND MIX OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE THIS MORNING
/15Z-16Z/. AFTER VIEWING THE WRF GOES-R SIMULATED IR IMAGERY...
THE SKY FCST WAS LEFT AS IS FROM 400 AM. W OF HWY 281 WILL
PROBABLY SEE A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF 10K FT ALTOCU AND PATCHY
CIRROSTRATUS. M/SUNNY SHOULD DO JUST FINE.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...
ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES
ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED
FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE
FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED
OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT
BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING
TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY DIED
OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE DRY.
WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN
NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND
THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS.
TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT
SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME
VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW
IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE.
THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS
KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS
OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS
TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY
FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE
OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W.
THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT.
INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS
MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST
NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY
CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE
TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME
LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH.
POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED.
GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT
CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES.
THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD.
PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS.
PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO
OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL
AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
PER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE 12-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY CONTAINS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE (IF NOT HIGHER CHANCES) OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AT LEAST
SOME PORTION OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE TWO MAIN POINTS
THAT NEED TO BE MADE RIGHT OFF THE TOP: FIRST OF ALL...BY FAR AND
AWAY THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...AND THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. ALONG THESE LINES...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED
A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA TO PART OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS DAY 3
OUTLOOK TECHNICALLY ONLY HIGHLIGHTS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF
THE CWA...THIS FORECASTER IS OF THE OPINION THAT ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD CONSIDER ITSELF TO BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS POINT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
SLIGHT RISK EXPANDED IN AREA AS IT GETS INTO THE DAY 2 AND
EVENTUALLY DAY 1 TIME FRAME. THE SECOND MAIN POINT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ESPECIALLY BY THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND THE PLACEMENT
AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS DURING THESE FINAL 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST
ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE. GIVEN THIS INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY...MOST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME PERIODS ARE NO
HIGHER THAN 20S-30S...AND ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MODESTLY
HIGHER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...HAVE TRIMMED OUT THE
MENTION OF 50 POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURE WISE...MADE FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS
6-DAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED TO TOP OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S ON MOST DAYS. HOWEVER...PROBABLY THE MOST
CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS SATURDAY...WHICH
ALSO HAS A CHANCE AT BEING THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CURRENT FORECAST NUDGED UP HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES...GETTING
MORE OF THE CWA INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S
SOUTHWEST...THERE COULD EASILY BE ROOM FOR FUTURE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS...AS SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA COULD FLIRT WITH LOW-90S...WITH SOUTHWEST AREAS
POTENTIALLY EVEN UPPER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MOST NIGHTS ARE
AIMED IN THE SEASONABLY-TYPICAL UPPER 50S-MID 60S RANGE...SO NOT
FORESEEING ANY BIG SURPRISES HERE.
AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED POTENTIAL HAZARDS...ITS BEEN AWHILE
SINCE FORECAST SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE REALLY COME CLOSE TO SOLIDLY
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH. AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT ADVERTISE ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS...ITS AT LEAST
LOOKING LIKE MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA COULD
APPROACH IT ON SATURDAY. ON BOTH DAYS...THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GETTING INTO A BIT MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AND IN RESPONSE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 20 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND MORE SO 25-30 MPH IN THE WEST (WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OF COURSE). ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT...QUESTIONS ABOUT SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL ARISE...AS SOME MODELS ARE BONE DRY WHILE OTHERS GENERATE
AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE AXIS OF A
VERY STRONG 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AS
EVIDENT BY 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY...OPTED TO STAY THE COURSE AND LEAVE THE
EVENING PERIOD VOID OF POPS...WHILE BLANKETING MOST OF THE CWA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...A ROGUE STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND ITS ALSO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE ROBUST EVENING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA TRIES TO SURVIVE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO AT LEAST WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED OFF THE TOP THIS 24-HOUR
PERIOD LIKELY COMMANDS THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST ATTENTION FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. COMPARED TO THE SEVERE EVENT
THAT JUST OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY SETUP LOOKS
TO BE MORE POTENT WITH A GREATER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS ARE LIKELY OVER-DOING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE A BIT...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST 2000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 50-60KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE DEPARTING FRI NIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CAPPED AS THE POTENT MID/UPPER WAVE SLIDES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AM EXPECTING RATHER VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY LIKELY TIED TO A
FAIRLY NARROW ZONE ALONG THE INVADING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
LIKELY TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY RIPE
FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A WIND THREAT POSSIBLY ENHANCED
BY UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING A NOTABLE TORNADO THREAT...CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THIS
POSSIBILITY EITHER ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE THE LONGEST. HYDRO-
WISE...COULD EASILY SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA RECEIVING A QUICK 1-
2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...BUT FORTUNATELY A GENERALLY DRY 48
HOURS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE ANY MORE THAN
LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE MOST PART. POPS FOR MOST
OF THE CWA ARE STILL IN THE LIKELY 60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
SOME AREAS.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IN REALITY THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY
DRY/STORM-FREE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS...BUT AT LEAST
FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT POP IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE
MORNING JUST IN CASE A LITTLE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY STILL
LINGERS...AND HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST
1/3 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE PRIMARY MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF/GFS START TO INCREASINGLY DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF GENERALLY
KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOCAL FLOW MORE QUASI-ZONAL WITH VARIOUS PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS
TIME...UNCERTAINTY IS FAR TOO HIGH TO EVEN PINPOINT A TIME FRAME
WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE. POPS ARE LARGELY A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AND FOR NOW THE HIGHEST 40 POPS ARE
FOCUSED ON MONDAY DAYTIME BUT ITS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT WAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND EVEN SURFACE
PATTERNS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS GET INCREDIBLY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE
ANOTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A VERY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...WHILE THE GFS IS COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS ARE GENERALLY AGREEING ON DRY CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH LOW-END 20-
30 POPS UNTIL THINGS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z GRI TAF THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
TODAY: SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD SIZE BATCH OF MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCU
IS DROPPING S TOWARD GRI. SIMULATED CLOUD COVER FROM HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THE THREAT FOR MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE OVER IN THE 14Z-
15Z TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...VFR WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SCT MID-
HIGH CLOUDS. N WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND GUST UP TO 23
KTS...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MVFR CLOUDS
TONIGHT: VFR SKC. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND EVENTUALLY
SE AFTER 05Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
RECENT RAINFALL: AS ANTICIPATED LAST EVENINGS STORMS DEVELOPED
PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN WAS NARROW AND STRETCHED ACROSS ROOKS-OSBORNE-
JEWELL COUNTIES. LOOKING AT ESTIMATED RAINFALL FOR THE PAST 4
WEEKS...THE AREA FROM THE TRI-CITIES SE TO HEBRON AND NE TO
COLUMBUS HAS SEEN A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES. THE SW
HALF OF THE FCST AREA /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/ HAS SEEN A 2-6
INCH SURPLUS OR 125-200% OF NORMAL.
UPSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS...RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 2 WKS HAS BEEN 200-600% OF NORMAL. THAT HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE PLATTE RVR SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. THE FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR WRN DAWSON
COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING AROUND GOTHENBURG. FCSTS INDICATE THAT
BOTH THE N AND S BRANCHES AT COZAD WILL APPROACH OR WERE ALREADY
NEAR ACTION STAGE. KEARNEY IS FCST TO CREST JUST SHORT OF FLOOD
STAGE THIS WEEKEND AND WE ISSUED AN ESF /HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ AT 1109
PM LAST EVENING FOR THIS. GRAND ISLAND IS FCST TO RISE TO ACTION
STAGE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE PLATTE RVR SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR WATER
LEVELS VIA THE RIVER&LAKES LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF OUR
WEBPAGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
HYDROLOGY...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND WEATHER AS OF LATE MORNING TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBSERATIONAL
TRENDS. ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SLV TODAY WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONTINENTIAL AIRMASS FOSTERS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY TODAY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED THOUGH...MAINLY SHOWERS.
FURTHER EAST...MAINLY A COOL/MOIST/STABLE MARTIME AIRMASS FROM THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. DID OPT TO LOWER TEMPS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY 2-4 DEGREES BASED OFF
LATEST TRENDS AND PERSISTENT/LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TRAJECTORIES
OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD ON AND OFF SHOWERY
WEATHER...WITH HIGHEST CONCENTRATION NORTH AND WEST. HAVE A GREAT
DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TODAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO
NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN
FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN
ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS
AT MPV. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 15Z...BEFORE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO
MVFR LVLS BY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500
FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES
PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF1035 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WINDS AT COLCHESTER REEF CONTINUE TO BLOW STEADILY 20-25 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTH SINCE ABOUT 2 A.M. THIS MORNING.
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH
WAVES RUNNING 1 TO 3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL BE GENERALLY
UNRESTRICTED BUT MAY DROP TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND WEATHER AS OF LATE MORNING TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBSERATIONAL
TRENDS. ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SLV TODAY WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONTINENTIAL AIRMASS FOSTERS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY TODAY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED THOUGH...MAINLY SHOWERS.
FURTHER EAST...MAINLY A COOL/MOIST/STABLE MARTIME AIRMASS FROM THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. DID OPT TO LOWER TEMPS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY 2-4 DEGREES BASED OFF
LATEST TRENDS AND PERSISTENT/LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TRAJECTORIES
OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD ON AND OFF SHOWERY
WEATHER...WITH HIGHEST CONCENTRATION NORTH AND WEST. HAVE A GREAT
DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TODAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO
NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN
FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN
ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS
AT MPV. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 15Z...BEFORE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO
MVFR LVLS BY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500
FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES
PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO
3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1018 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL COMPLEX WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF WET
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S AND 80S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010 AM UPDATE...
SO FAR THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS ONLY SHOWING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BGM FCST AREA. MAIN CONCERNS
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON REMAIN FOCUSED ON LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH /2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. RIGHT NOW...MAIN THING GOING AGAINST
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT SAID...FCST MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC WARM FRONT THAT
REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OFF TO OUR WEST WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SUGGESTS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND THUS HAVE
ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A NUMEROUS SHWR MENTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-81
CORRIDOR WHERE FCST MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME.
AT 400 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY DECREASE.
THROUGH TONIGHT, A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM 1.50-1.80 INCHES ALONG WITH WARM
CLOUD LAYER AROUND 10K FT. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
ACTIVITY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN
NUMEROUS THROUGH EVENING. DUE TO CONTINUED E/SE COOL/STABLE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CAPE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION BUT EVEN HERE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG. WILL MENTION SCATTERED TRW WEST OF I81 AND ISOLATED EAST.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER WITH UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW OVER NRN MINNESOTA
WILL DROP THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES AND PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
JUICY UNTIL FROPA SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CAPE
VALUES ARE BETTER GENERALLY 400-800 J/KG BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TALL/SKINNY CAPE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
NON IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR VALES AND MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATES
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP MENTION IN
HWO FOR MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN PTN OF CWA FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD WILL BE DRY
AND MAINLY CLEAR. MAXES ON SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN VCNTY RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST....
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS
WELL-ENTRENCHED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER
RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY EARLY WEEK
AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TRACKING EAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS FEATURE REMAINS STALLED TO
OUR NORTH.
IN TERMS OF TEMPS...STRONG WARM ADVECTION EARLY WEEK SHOULD ALLOW
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
WEDNESDAY. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS
APPEAR POSSIBLE AS STALLED FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WHOLE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL
REMAIN MVFR EXPECT FOR KSYR AND KRME. KSYR AND KRME ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT VFR. KBGM WILL HAVE PERIODS OF IFR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 14Z. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP OUT OF TAF. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
BECOME LIGHTER AFTER SUNSET. CIGS MAY DETERIORATE FRIDAY MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THUS DECIDED TO KEEP IFR OUT OF TAF ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM SHWRS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURG
THE AFTN/EVE HRS.
SAT...BECOMING VFR.
SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR. CHC TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...CMG/KAH
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 731 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PLENTY
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL...SO JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
FOR TODAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO
HAVE A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO
NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN
FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN
ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS
AT MPV. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 15Z...BEFORE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO
MVFR LVLS BY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500
FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES
PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO
3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 731 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PLENTY
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL...SO JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
FOR TODAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO
HAVE A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO
NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN
FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN
ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR
VIS AT SLK IN HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
CONT THRU 12Z...BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY
DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET
AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES
PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO
3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TODAY. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO
NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN
FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN
ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS
AT MPV. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 15Z...BEFORE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO
MVFR LVLS BY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500
FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CIGS. IN
ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL
CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND
IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD SOME AREAS
OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES PREVAILS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO
3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN
STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WITH
OBSERVED PW OVER 2 INCHES AND LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH AROUND 10K
FT. WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING AND LIFTING...WITH BETTER
EARLY HEATING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE COINCIDENT WITH THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE IS LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ALREADY...WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO TRAIN FROM WILSON NORTH TOWARD ROANOKE RAPIDS.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS MLCAPE RISES TOWARD 1000 J/KG
WITHOUT ANY CINH. YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WAS HEAVIEST NORTH OF HWY
64...AND THOSE AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING
TODAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
PER HOUR. EARLY ON THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER/SLOW DESTABILIZATION...BUT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR OVER UPSTATE SC THAT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE DCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SHOW SOME
DEVELOPMENT BACK TOWARD THE KCLT/KGSP AREA AFTER 18Z...SO THERE MAY
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE APPROACHING THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WILL BE ADJUSTING LIKELY POPS TO BE
HIGHEST OVER THE EAST THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. HIGHS
MOSTLY 83-88. -BLS
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING
FROM 1.4-1.7 INCHES (HIGHEST ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THIS AND THE
FACT THAT THE BEST DPVA IS PROGGED TO ALSO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THIS
IS WHERE THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED.
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...WITH MLCAPE BELOW
1000 J/KG...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A CONCERN. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
AREA...IN ADDITION TO THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. TEMPS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE/MCV ORIGINATING FROM THE DEVELOPING
MCS OVER ARKLATEX ATTM WILL ADVANCE ESEWD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/DEEP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CORRALLED BY THE EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION INITIALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT
NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES
OUT WITH MORE EQUITABLE...DIURNAL CONVECTION AREA-WIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A RISE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM THURSDAY...
PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT/LIFT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
(BUT STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES) RETURNING BY THE MID MORNING HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST. IF A STORM IMPACTS A TERMINAL...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LESS...SO WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS/FOG IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...EXPECT A CONTINUED HIGHER THAN AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD/MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD/BLS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1026 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE DAYS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST TO START THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH AND CENTRAL/WESTERN GLAKS UPPER
TROF...AND IN BETWEEN THE ANOMALOUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH 1.5"
TO 1.75" PW. OVERALL A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC SETUP TO WED. WHILE
WE`RE LACKING THE LLJ WHICH ORGANIZED AND EMBOLDENED YDY
EVENING`S CONVECTION TODAY...BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ELONGATED
UPPER TROF REACHES SOUTHEAST OH/WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...WITH MAX INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM VERY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING.
NO DISAGREEMENTS HERE WITH THE PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ASSESSMENT - THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND KEY INGREDIENTS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN/FF WITH LOCALIZED INTENSE /1+" PER
HOUR/ RAIN RATES POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A QUICK 2-3" OVER A SHORT
DURATION. THE BACKGROUND MEAN FLOW /SOUTH-TO- NORTH/ WOULD ALSO
SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST TEMPORARY CELL TRAINING OR REPEAT
AREAS OF +RA. THERE ARE SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BTWN THE OPERATIONAL
AND HIRES MODELS..BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS ON POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE 00Z SPC SSEO DAY 1 MEAN PCPN SHOWS
AN AXIS OF 1-2" JUST EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3" AMTS OVER THE SCNTRL MTNS. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SHWR
CVRG INCR/DEVELOPING FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFT 15-16Z WITH MULTIPLE NWD
MOVG BANDS/CLUSTERS...PERHAPS ALIGNING A QPF AXIS JUST EAST OF
HIRES SSEO MEAN. NOTE: ONLY 6/7 SSEO MEMBERS WERE AVAILABLE FOR
THIS RUN. THE WPC DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAFL OUTLOOK PLACES ALL BUT THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES IN A SLGT RISK AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE HWO.
GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR FF...CURRENT FF WATCH FROM NOON UNTL
MIDNIGHT RETAINED. THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH- CENTRAL MTNS
ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO FF RISK...GIVEN YESTERDAYS LCL HVY RAIN AND
THUS LOWER FFG. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA
BECOMING THE MOST UNSTABLE THIS AFTN...S/W OF DIFFUSE QSTNRY WARM
FRONT/SFC TROF WHICH APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE SUSQ.
RIVER. CLOUDS/NMRS SHOWERS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S WITH MUGGY OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ONLY
OTHER ITEM TO TOUCH ON IS THE SPC DAY 1 SEE TEXT/5% SVR PROB WHICH
COVERS THE WRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. MOIST PROFILES WILL LEAD TO POOR
LAPSE RATES WITH ML CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THE GENERAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LVL FLOW SUGGESTS AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL WIND THREAT AT BEST WITH PEAK GUSTS IN ANY TSTM
CLUSTERS LKLY REMAINING SUB-SVR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MDL DATA INDICATES SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AM
IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVR THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA AND A
FEW TSRA IN HIGH PWAT/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVR CENTRAL
PA EARLY FRIDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OF THE REGION. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE OVR THE NW MTNS ARND
MIDDAY AND REACH THE SE COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. MID LVL WINDS
AND SHEAR PROFILES NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT GEFS OUTPUT INDICATES
DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE DAY...IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS.
ALMOST NO MDL SPREAD WITH TIMING OF CDFRONT...WHICH SHOULD EXIT
THE SE ZONES BY LATE EVENING. NW FLOW WILL DELIVER A PUSH OF MUCH
DRIER AIR FRI NIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING AND COOLER CONDS. WHERE
PRES GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK LATE FRI NIGHT...PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
POSS OVR THE NW MTNS TOWARD DAWN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO
A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FAIR WX...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY GO A BIT BLW NORMAL...ESP SAT NIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES PASS OVR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WARMER AIR WILL RETURN SUN-TUE...AS HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE
E COAST. GEFS AND ECMWF ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE NR 17C MON-
WED...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE PA WILL BE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE SE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...RING OF FIRE CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE MON-WED...AS HIGHER HUMIDITY WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH
LIFR CONDS/NEAR AIRFIELD MINS OVER THE SERN AIRFIELDS MDT/LNS.
SHRWS/EMBDD TSTMS ARE FCST TO INCR FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN CVRG AFT
15-16Z PER COSPA ACRS THE W-CNTRL AIRSPACE...PERHAPS ALIGNING
ALONG OR NEAR SUBTLE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT WAVERING OVER CENTRAL
PA.
CIGS SHOULD MARGINALLY IMPROVE TO HIGH END MVFR OR LOW VFR BY THE
AFTN. THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PREVAILING -SHRA WITH VCTS AT MOST
SITES. BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN +RA ARE LKLY TO IMPACT AT LEAST A
FEW AIRFIELDS THIS AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LKLY IFR CONDS OVER ERN SXNS/ZNY SECTOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR/MVFR WITH SCT-NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCD WITH COLD
FROPA.
SAT-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG. OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ010-017>019-
024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
716 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV/IR STLT IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES SSEWD THRU THE OH/TN VLYS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT
LITTLE TO NO SPREAD IN BRINGING THIS ENERGY GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID-ATLC STATES BY 12Z FRI. DEEP
LYRD SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LVL TROUGH...INCLUDING A STG
30+KT SSELY H85 JET OFF THE ATLC...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN VERY HIGH
MSTR AVAILABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PW VALUES BTWN 1.50-1.75
INCHES. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND KEY INGREDIENTS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN/FF WITH LOCALIZED INTENSE /1+" PER HOUR/
RAIN RATES RESULTING IN A QUICK 2-3" OVER A SHORT DURATION. THE
BACKGROUND MEAN FLOW /SOUTH-TO-NORTH/ WOULD ALSO SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST TEMPORARY CELL TRAINING OR REPEAT AREAS OF +RA. THERE ARE
SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BTWN THE OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODELS..BUT
THERE IS A CONSENSUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS.
THE 00Z SPC SSEO DAY 1 MEAN PCPN SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1-2" JUST EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...WITH LOCALIZED 2-3" AMTS OVER THE SCNTRL
MTNS. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SHWR CVRG INCR/DEVELOPING FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFT 15-16Z WITH MULTIPLE NWD MOVG BANDS/CLUSTERS...PERHAPS
ALIGNING A QPF AXIS JUST EAST OF HIRES SSEO MEAN. NOTE: ONLY 6/7
SSEO MEMBERS WERE AVAILABLE FOR THIS RUN. THE WPC DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAFL OUTLOOK PLACES ALL BUT THE EXTREME ERN ZONES IN A SLGT RISK
AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE HWO.
GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR FF...COORDINATED WITH PBZ/LWX/PHI ON A
FF WATCH FROM NOON UNTL MIDNIGHT. THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL MTNS ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO FF RISK...GIVEN YESTERDAYS LCL
HVY RAIN AND THUS LOWER FFG. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
AREA BECOMING THE MOST UNSTABLE THIS AFTN...S/W OF DIFFUSE QSTNRY
WARM FRONT/SFC TROF WHICH APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
SUSQ. RIVER. CLOUDS/NMRS SHOWERS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 70S WITH MUGGY OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ONLY
OTHER ITEM TO TOUCH ON IS THE SPC DAY 1 SEE TEXT/5% SVR PROB WHICH
COVERS THE WRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. MOIST PROFILES WILL LEAD TO POOR
LAPSE RATES WITH ML CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THE GENERAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LVL FLOW SUGGESTS AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL WIND THREAT AT BEST WITH PEAK GUSTS IN ANY TSTM
CLUSTERS LKLY REMAINING SUB-SVR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MDL DATA INDICATES SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AM
IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVR THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA AND A
FEW TSRA IN HIGH PWAT/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVR CENTRAL
PA EARLY FRIDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OF THE REGION. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE OVR THE NW MTNS ARND
MIDDAY AND REACH THE SE COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. MID LVL WINDS
AND SHEAR PROFILES NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT GEFS OUTPUT INDICATES
DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE DAY...IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS.
ALMOST NO MDL SPREAD WITH TIMING OF CDFRONT...WHICH SHOULD EXIT
THE SE ZONES BY LATE EVENING. NW FLOW WILL DELIVER A PUSH OF MUCH
DRIER AIR FRI NIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING AND COOLER CONDS. WHERE
PRES GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK LATE FRI NIGHT...PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
POSS OVR THE NW MTNS TOWARD DAWN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO
A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FAIR WX...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY GO A BIT BLW NORMAL...ESP SAT NIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES PASS OVR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WARMER AIR WILL RETURN SUN-TUE...AS HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE
E COAST. GEFS AND ECMWF ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE NR 17C MON-
WED...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE PA WILL BE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE SE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...RING OF FIRE CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE MON-WED...AS HIGHER HUMIDITY WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH
LIFR CONDS/NEAR AIRFIELD MINS OVER THE SERN AIRFIELDS MDT/LNS.
SHRWS/EMBDD TSTMS ARE FCST TO INCR FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN CVRG AFT
15-16Z PER COSPA ACRS THE W-CNTRL AIRSPACE...PERHAPS ALIGNING
ALONG OR NEAR SUBTLE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT WAVERING OVER CENTRAL
PA.
CIGS SHOULD MARGINALLY IMPROVE TO HIGH END MVFR OR LOW VFR BY THE
AFTN. THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PREVAILING -SHRA WITH VCTS AT MOST
SITES. BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN +RA ARE LKLY TO IMPACT AT LEAST A
FEW AIRFIELDS THIS AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LKLY IFR CONDS OVER ERN SXNS/ZNY SECTOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR/MVFR WITH SCT-NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCD WITH COLD
FROPA.
SAT-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG. OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ010-017>019-024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1007 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF MIDDLE TN TODAY AND WILL BE REPLACE WITH A
WEAK SHORT TERM RIDGE. A DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE THE
TREND. BUT...ELEVATED MOISTURE STILL EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE CONTINUATION OF SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS WE CONTINUE TO WARM. HRRR SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT FOR
OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS BY 1 PM OR SO. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL REACH
1000-1500 J/KG. FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS
THE PLATEAU FROM 20 PERCENT TO 30 PERCENT.
OTW...TEMPS ALREADY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.
BNA IS OUTRUNNING LATEST GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES. WILL GO AHEAD AND
RAISE TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS.
SKY CONDITION LOOKS OK...SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR TODAY.
UPDATE COMING OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
COLD POCKET AT 500 MBAR HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DOWN INTERSTATE
24 TOWARDS CHATTANOOGA. MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PLATEAU
AS COLD POCKET EXTENDS UP INTO THAT AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. COLD POCKET
ASSOCATED WITH UPPER TROUGH THATS BEEN A SLOW MOVER LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
910 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR CLOUD COVER AND TO ADJUST MORNING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TEXAS
MCS AND DECAYING NORTHERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE MIDSOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY. ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
FORECASTED THIS MORNING....OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT NO WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...SO TEMPERATURES MIGHT FEEL
A FEW DEGREES WARMER. A LARGE MCS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL TRACK IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...AND DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY HOW THE MCS DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT TRACKS...THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...MY BET IS THAT THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIELDS US FROM AND PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE MCS SHOULD TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...BUT THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE ITS OWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...LIKELY TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG...OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-40 AND EAST OF I-55 IN EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AND A BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE
RESULT...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAYS
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT...BUT BY SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DEEP
SOUTHEASTERN US WITH A BROAD TROUGH OUT WEST RESULTING IN WEAK
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDWEEK AS TEMPERATURES GET WARMER. HIGHS
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S. SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO
OFF OF GUIDANCE AGAIN BASED ON A WARM BIAS I HAVE OBSERVED
RECENTLY. LOOKS LIKE SUMMER HAS ARRIVED.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY... AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO THE JBR AREA AROUND 00Z...AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE MIDSOUTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR CONVECTIVE COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING THIS
AFTERNOON. IF SO... TSRA COULD ARRIVE TO THE MIDSOUTH A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN THE 12Z TAFS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
654 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT NO WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...SO TEMPERATURES MIGHT FEEL
A FEW DEGREES WARMER. A LARGE MCS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL TRACK IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...AND DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY HOW THE MCS DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT TRACKS...THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...MY BET IS THAT THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIELDS US FROM AND PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE MCS SHOULD TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...BUT THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE ITS OWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...LIKELY TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG...OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-40 AND EAST OF I-55 IN EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AND A BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE
RESULT...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAYS
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT...BUT BY SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DEEP
SOUTHEASTERN US WITH A BROAD TROUGH OUT WEST RESULTING IN WEAK
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDWEEK AS TEMPERATURES GET WARMER. HIGHS
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S. SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO
OFF OF GUIDANCE AGAIN BASED ON A WARM BIAS I HAVE OBSERVED
RECENTLY. LOOKS LIKE SUMMER HAS ARRIVED.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY... AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO THE JBR AREA AROUND 00Z...AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE MIDSOUTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR CONVECTIVE COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING THIS
AFTERNOON. IF SO... TSRA COULD ARRIVE TO THE MIDSOUTH A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN THE 12Z TAFS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1042 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH AND IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR GATESVILLE TO
WACO TO ATHENS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE A MAJOR PLAYER
CONCERNING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES DROP 5
TO 10 DEGREES AND WINDS ARE NORTHEAST. THIS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATES
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEATING AND
WIND RECOVERY FOR ANY CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS ACTUALLY STILL ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WILL HEAD SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY HANDLES THIS WELL...IT HAS DONE A
POOR JOB MODELING THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ITS
IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
SINCE THE GUIDANCE DOESNT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MESOSCALE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OR THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LOCATION OF BOTH
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
OZONA WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA BENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE MAIN TROF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH LATER TODAY...A WEAK
SURFACE TROF WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IT COULD
BEHAVE MORE LIKE A WARM FRONT GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING ACROSS THE
WEST. THIS BECOMES IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ARE RELATIVELY
UNDISTURBED FROM MORNING CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BACKED MORE THAN INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000 J/KG WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 45KTS WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO CONCUR WITH THIS AND
ACTUALLY INDICATES WHAT APPEARS TO BE DISCRETE CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPDATE WILL ADJUST POPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
RAISE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO UPDATE GRAPHICS ON THE WEB FOR THE
LATEST THINKING.
DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 702 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
/12Z TAFS/
MANY CHALLENGES TODAY REGARDING CONVECTIVE TIMING AND WIND SHIFTS.
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS 15-30 KTS NOW PUSHING THROUGH DFW METRO
AIRPORTS AND SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW WITH MIXING BY LATE
MORNING OR MIDDAY. VFR WITH THUNDER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. AT WACO...CAPPING INVERSION IS STRONGER THIS MORNING AND
WILL HOLD ON TO JUST VCSH AND VFR THIS MORNING.
HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY HELPFUL WITH STORM OUTFLOW AND
EXACT TIMING OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH TIMING STORM
INITIATION. BEST GUESS IS FOR THE INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF DFW METRO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND DEPARTING BY EARLY
EVENING. STORM TIMING AT WACO APPEARS TO BE LATE AFTERNOON AND
CLEARING OUT BY MID EVENING.
WE WILL CARRY A LIGHT N/NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE DFW METRO TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FRONT SHOULD STALL IN OR NEAR WACO OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT E/NE LATE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
CIGS RETURNING AS WELL.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIZABLE AREA OF STRONG
TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AND JUNE
SUNSHINE HELPS PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AT 3 AM CDT...WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR DANGEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP IN THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A NEARLY
EAST-WEST LINEAR SYSTEM BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK...BUT DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERE
WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL UNTIL THEY EXIT THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE POPS TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL
FOCUS GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS. A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD TO STRONG TO
EXTREME LEVELS...ALSO ARGUES FOR LOWER POPS WEST AND HIGHER POPS
EAST TODAY. THE CAP WILL BE STRONGEST IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
35 AND SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY. IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...THE CAP IS
WEAKER AND THE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER. THESE FACTORS JUSTIFY THE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL END FRIDAY MORNING
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE...BUT
WARM AND MUGGY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT A WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY AFFECT TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THAT SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
09
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 71 87 72 92 / 40 50 10 5 10
WACO, TX 91 71 89 72 91 / 60 60 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 84 67 84 67 88 / 60 60 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 88 68 86 70 91 / 50 50 10 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 87 66 86 68 89 / 50 50 10 5 10
DALLAS, TX 90 71 87 72 91 / 40 50 10 5 10
TERRELL, TX 86 69 87 69 90 / 50 60 10 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 90 71 88 71 90 / 60 60 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 91 71 89 71 91 / 60 60 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 68 86 70 93 / 40 40 5 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1033 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MONITORING CONVECTION OVER ANDERSON/HENDERSON/FREESTONE COUNTIES
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION MIGHT MOVE INTO HOUSTON COUNTY
LATER THIS MORNING AND MAYBE BE AN ISSUE FOR TRINITY/POLK
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST FOR THOSE COUNTIES SHOULD IT BECOME MORE APPARENT THERE
WILL BE AN IMPACT.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS EVENING. NEW
12Z NAM AND EVEN PREVIOUS MESO MODELS CONTINUE SHOW THREAT OF A
SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO THE REGION AROUND 7PM TO MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME OR 00Z-05Z. MODELS HINT AT MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER N
TX WHICH COULD THEN PUSH DOWN INTO SE TX DURING THE EVENING. SPC
HAS HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SLIGHT RISK AREA MAINLY NORTH OF I-10
FOR HOUSTON FORECAST AREA. HIGHER RISK EXISTS FARTHER NORTH BUT
DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENT CONVECTIVE EVENT. CURIOUS
ABOUT UPDATED DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC BUT SUSPECT RISK WILL NOT
CHANGE. MAIN THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL DO 2 THINGS. INCREASE HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO AROUND 105 AND ALSO BUILD INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THREAT.
HEATING WILL ALSO YIELD STEEP NEAR SFC DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
FOR INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. AS SUCH UPDATED FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION SEVERE THREAT. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
NO CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. THE HRRR/4 KM NCEP WRF
INITIALIZED BEST THIS MORNING BUT EACH MODEL DIFFERS ON HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY. THE 4 KM WRF LOOKS OVERDONE BUT IT IS
VERIFYING BEST AT 11Z. THE RAP LOOKS THE MOST REASONABLE BUT IT
INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY. THE HRRR INITIALIZED OK AND APPEARS TO
BE MAYBE THE BEST COMPROMISE. WILL BRING CONVECTION SOUTHWARD AND
FEEL KIAH...KCXO...KUTS AND KCLL WILL GET SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTN. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS
EVENING WITH A SECONDARY BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA REDEVLOPING AND MOVING
INTO THE AREA AROUND 02Z. DESPITE THE OCCASIONAL SHOWWERS...CONDS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY DRIVE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT SO TAFS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN
FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING
MCS IN OKLAHOMA. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
THE SETUP FOR TODAY IS AS FOLLOWS. SHORTWAVE #1 IN KANSAS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO CAUSE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
AND PROPAGATE FROM THE CURRENT MCS AND SHORTWAVE #1. IN GENERAL...
HIGH RES MODELS SHOW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTED LINE AND PUSHING TO THE EAST. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN
THE SHEAR AXIS ANALYZED ON THE CURRENT 0Z 850 MAP THIS MORNING
WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO RUN NORTH SOUTH FROM OUR AREA TOWARDS TYLER
TEXAS. HIGH MODELS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE PAST THIS TIME
FRAME. THE 4KM NCEP WRF INTENSIFIES THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP AND
MOVES IT INTO OUR AREA. THE TEXAS TECH WRF... HRRR ...AND RAP
WEAKEN THE PRECIP. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE PRECIP WEAKENING DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS
~1.5"). UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO APPEARS TO BE WEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO WIN OUT. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY
PRECIP THAT MIGHT CUT ACROSS. IT COULD ALSO BE QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN 850 BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND FOUR DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS THE QUESTION OF HOW
MUCH CIRRUS THE AREA WILL SEE THOUGH FROM CONVECTION OFF TO OUR
NORTH. IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT IF A COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH. MID 90S LOOKS
VERY LIKELY FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
THOUGH. ALONG THE COAST THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
TEMPS MORE TAME.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SHORTWAVE #2 CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
ARIZONA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AS IT MOVES
EAST AND ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE. THURSDAY EVENING IT IS
FORECASTED TO BE ENTERING CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE
SOME TYPE OF MCS FORMING AND HEADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA. BEFORE THIS THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS VARY GREATLY AND
THEREFORE PRODUCE VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS ON HOW THE LINE IS
HANDLED. AS OF CURRENT THE HRRR/ RAP HAVE SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE
BEST AND SHOW THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 0Z FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SECTION OF THE RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW A WEDGE OF PV TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT THE SIGNAL IS WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 1.8" WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG. BECAUSE OF THIS SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY THREATS APPEAR TO
BE WIND AND HAIL. FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY BUT GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW LARGE
INSTABILITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. DUE TO
THIS SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL FALL INTO THE CONVERGENT REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE AREA WILL START TO DRY OUT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. 23
MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS DEEPENS.
THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 73 90 74 91 / 20 60 30 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 75 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 80 87 79 87 / 10 30 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. THE HRRR/4 KM NCEP WRF
INITIALIZED BEST THIS MORNING BUT EACH MODEL DIFFERS ON HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY. THE 4 KM WRF LOOKS OVERDONE BUT IT IS
VERIFYING BEST AT 11Z. THE RAP LOOKS THE MOST REASONABLE BUT IT
INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY. THE HRRR INITIALIZED OK AND APPEARS TO
BE MAYBE THE BEST COMPROMISE. WILL BRING CONVECTION SOUTHWARD AND
FEEL KIAH...KCXO...KUTS AND KCLL WILL GET SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTN. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS
EVENING WITH A SECONDARY BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA REDEVLOPING AND MOVING
INTO THE AREA AROUND 02Z. DESPITE THE OCCASIONAL SHOWWERS...CONDS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY DRIVE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT SO TAFS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN
FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING
MCS IN OKLAHOMA. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
THE SETUP FOR TODAY IS AS FOLLOWS. SHORTWAVE #1 IN KANSAS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO CAUSE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
AND PROPAGATE FROM THE CURRENT MCS AND SHORTWAVE #1. IN GENERAL...
HIGH RES MODELS SHOW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTED LINE AND PUSHING TO THE EAST. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN
THE SHEAR AXIS ANALYZED ON THE CURRENT 0Z 850 MAP THIS MORNING
WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO RUN NORTH SOUTH FROM OUR AREA TOWARDS TYLER
TEXAS. HIGH MODELS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE PAST THIS TIME
FRAME. THE 4KM NCEP WRF INTENSIFIES THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP AND
MOVES IT INTO OUR AREA. THE TEXAS TECH WRF... HRRR ...AND RAP
WEAKEN THE PRECIP. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE PRECIP WEAKENING DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS
~1.5"). UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO APPEARS TO BE WEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO WIN OUT. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY
PRECIP THAT MIGHT CUT ACROSS. IT COULD ALSO BE QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN 850 BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND FOUR DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS THE QUESTION OF HOW
MUCH CIRRUS THE AREA WILL SEE THOUGH FROM CONVECTION OFF TO OUR
NORTH. IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT IF A COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH. MID 90S LOOKS
VERY LIKELY FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
THOUGH. ALONG THE COAST THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
TEMPS MORE TAME.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SHORTWAVE #2 CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
ARIZONA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AS IT MOVES
EAST AND ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE. THURSDAY EVENING IT IS
FORECASTED TO BE ENTERING CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE
SOME TYPE OF MCS FORMING AND HEADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA. BEFORE THIS THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS VARY GREATLY AND
THEREFORE PRODUCE VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS ON HOW THE LINE IS
HANDLED. AS OF CURRENT THE HRRR/ RAP HAVE SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE
BEST AND SHOW THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 0Z FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SECTION OF THE RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW A WEDGE OF PV TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT THE SIGNAL IS WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 1.8" WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG. BECAUSE OF THIS SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY THREATS APPEAR TO
BE WIND AND HAIL. FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY BUT GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW LARGE
INSTABILITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. DUE TO
THIS SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL FALL INTO THE CONVERGENT REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE AREA WILL START TO DRY OUT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. 23
MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS DEEPENS.
THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 73 90 74 91 / 20 50 30 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 75 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 80 87 79 87 / 10 30 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
339 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 2014
.Synopsis...
An upper low in the Pacific NW and NorCal is enhancing the delta
breeze. This will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal
through Friday and could bring coastal stratus into the delta and
southern Sacramento valley during night/morning hours with the
onshore flow. Warmer temperatures are expected over the weekend
and into early next week as flat high pressure moves across the
region. Temperatures expected to stay above normal through the
remainder of the week.
&&
.Discussion...
Travis AFB had been gusting around 25-28 mph for the past 3
hours, but, as models suggested, the onshore flow is beginning to
increase again. Latest observation at Travis AFB has gusts back up
to 32 mph. The HRRR and NAM both showed an increase from about 22z
to 03z where gusts could range from 30-40 mph in the delta region.
Current temperatures for the valley are in the low 80s with delta
region in the 70s, higher terrain in the 60s. Compared to 24 hours
ago, these temps are running a few to several degrees cooler than
yesterday. Redding & Red Bluff are both 9 degrees cooler in
comparison to Wednesday at 3pm. The enhanced "air conditioning"
from the Delta Breeze is from an upper level trough impacting the
Pacific NW & NorCal. This trough will continue onshore flow and keep
our CWA at near to below normal max temps through tomorrow.
The trough will push eastward on Saturday and that means a warmer
weekend while the delta breeze weakens. The valley will leave the
80s behind and see widespread low to mid 90s on Sat & Sun. By
Sunday, the max temps will range from a couple to about 7 degrees
above normal. JBB
&&
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Low confidence in the extended period with poor model agreement
and run-to-run consistency. The GFS builds a ridge across
California for much of next week, bringing warm and dry conditions
with benign weather. The ECMWF and GEM drop a trough from the
Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. This "inside slider" could
bring another round of breezy north winds and elevated fire
concerns for the middle of next week. We`ll continue to monitor
the model trends before gaining confidence in either solution.
Dang
&&
.Aviation...
Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Areas of MVFR/IFR marine
stratus may again extend through the Delta into the southern
Sacramento Valley late tonight into early Friday morning.
Generally south to west winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt will
continue across the Valley through this evening. Near the Delta
and over higher elevations, southwest wind gusts up to 35 kt
possible.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
wind advisory until 8 pm pdt this evening carquinez strait and
delta.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
320 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT COOLING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED TO DIG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SIERRA CREST...INDIAN WELLS VALLEY...AND THE MOJAVE AREA. WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT MOJAVE...WITH BOTH
THE HRRR AND NAMDNG INDICATING WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 06Z
HOUR. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTED TO HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT
IS SUCH A SMALL AREA THAT WE DECIDED TO SEND OUT THE MESSAGE VIA
SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH WITH
REGARDS TO THE GUSTY WINDS.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM DOES INDICATE THAT MU CAPE WILL INCREASE
TO 600-700 J/KG ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST IN FRESNO AND TULARE
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...LI VALUES FALL TO -3.5...ADDING A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING.
AFTER A QUICK CHAT WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICE IN LAS VEGAS...THEY
DID MENTION THAT THE STRONG WINDS MAY SHEER OFF ANY TOWERING
CU...INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE SIERRA CREST.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGED FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE VALLEY...BETWEEN 2 AND 8 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
JUNE.
OTHERWISE...COOLING WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO SOUTHERN
CA. THE NAM DOES SHOW ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF GUSTY WEST
WINDS THROUGH THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND MOJAVE AREA. IN
FACT...THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT
STRONGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY. AGAIN...THESE WINDS DO LOOK TO BE IN A VERY CONFINED AREA.
SUBTLE WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 500 DM HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 DEGREES C BETWEEN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC...RESULTING IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND KERN DESERT BELOW THE PASSES
AND CANYONS THROUGH 09Z FRIDAY AND AGAIN AFTER 19Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JUNE 12 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN
COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 06-12 107:1985 66:1998 73:1985 47:1952
KFAT 06-13 107:1949 69:1922 71:1985 47:1907
KFAT 06-14 108:1966 65:1962 72:2007 42:1907
KBFL 06-12 110:1979 63:1998 75:1979 38:1907
KBFL 06-13 106:1940 75:1907 76:1975 41:1907
KBFL 06-14 111:1961 70:1962 78:1975 43:1907
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...SANGER
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
331 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. STILL MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
THE REST OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. NOT THUNDERSTORMS YET...BUT
HRRR APPEARS THE REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING IN MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN ZONE
36. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...TOO COOL AND STABLE FOR MUCH
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTN. MARGINAL FOR THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AS WELL BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE DENVER CYCLONE MAY
TIP THE SCALES TOWARDS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
DENVER. NOTHING AT THIS TIME...BUT 73/50 TEMP/DEWPOINT COULD
YIELD CAPES TOWARDS 1000 J/KG. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP IN WILL BE
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE PRESENTLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
DENVER. HRRR STILL SHOWING A STRONG TSTM OR TWO OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE...SO WL GO WITH CHC POPS THERE WITH SLGT CHC ELSEWHERE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY WITH A
DRY AND SUBSIDENT AMS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15+ DEGREES.
LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN ZONES 48>51.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOT CONTINUES FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
AIRMASS FAIRLY WARM AND DRY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY
LINE EAST OF A STERLING TO AKRON LINE EARLY IN THE EVENING PUSHING
INTO KANSAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLES BY MIDNIGHT. LATEST NAM
STILL INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FAR NORTHEAST CORNER...WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW POPS THERE.
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAIRLY
MILD NIGHT EXPECTED MOST AREAS WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ONGOING.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING INTO COLORADO WITH THE
CLOSED LOW OVER MONTANA. COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
ECMWF INDICATING THE FRONT REACHING THE DENVER AREA AROUND 15Z
WHILE THE GFS INDICATING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT DENVER SOMETIME
AFTER 18Z. THIS TIMING WILL CERTAINLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. LATEST NAM AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE MUCH COOLER FOR DENVER WITH A HIGH OF ONLY 74 FROM THE
NAM AND 75 FROM THE ECMWF WHILE THE GUIDANCE MUCH WARMER WITH A
HIGH 88. BELIEVE THE GFS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM SOLUTION. MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SHEAR FAIRLY WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EVENING THEN INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE STORM CHANCES MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH
DURING THE EVENING THEN EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES TO
THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME RETURN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR A BIT OF
STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES LOW FOR NOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
GRIDS. ON SUNDAY...STILL SOME MODEL SIMILARITIES WITH A COOL AND
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN THEIR DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE GFS
BEGINS A PROGRESSIVE SHIFT OF THE TROUGH EASTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. GFS
CONTINUES WITH THE PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN MOVING IT INTO TOWARD COLORADO
BY THURSDAY. THESE OBVIOUS DIFFERENCES TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF
THE SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW...SO WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST AND KEEP LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A
COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
DENVER CYCLONE STILL IN PLACE BUT WITH A CONVERGENCE LINE FM JUST
WEST OF DIA TO CENTENNIAL. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE. LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME SO VCTS
SHOULD SUFFICE. BKN CIGS 030-050 MAY LINGER AT KDEN AND KBJC
THROUGH THIS AFTN...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS A
DRIER AMS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z WITH
SSWLY WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
SLGT CHC OF TSTMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT FLOODING
RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ON THE PLAINS. BRIEF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT
ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER...LIMITING THE
SNOW MELT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...COOPER
HYDROLOGY...COOPER/D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1121 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND STRATUS HAS
STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALONG/NORTH
OF THE RATON RIDGE. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES IN ALOFT THOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE A SUBTLE FEATURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BACK ACROSS WESTERN
NV THAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES THROUGH THE RIDGE ACROSS CO
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FORCING LOOKS PRETTY WEAK WITH
THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOWS UP BEST IN THE PRESSURE FIELD ON THE 1.5
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SURFACE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PINNED UP IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS SUCH AS
THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS TODAY. CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH THIS MOISTURE MIXES OUT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THE AFFECT THIS HAS ON CAPE VALUES. NAM12 KEEPS
SFC DEWS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS IN THE 40S WITH POCKETS OF
MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME PLACES. GFS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...WHILE SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS LIKE RAP13 AND HRRR DROP DEW POINTS BACK INTO
THE LOWER 40S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. NAM12 CAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT
CERTAINLY THINK THAT UP TO 1000 J/KG IS DOABLE AS RAP SUGGESTS. 0-6
KM SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS...WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THE INSTABILITY BE
REALIZED. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS THEY DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WHERE A HEALTHY CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS WITH
ANY STORMS TODAY IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS TODAY. OF
COURSE WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS IMPACT THE BURN SCARS. THREAT TODAY LOOKS HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE OF STORMS IN HIGH
RES MODELS...THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER OUT WEST.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME STRATUS ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. -KT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS REGION STARTING FRIDAY...WITH WARM AND DRY AIR ADVECTING
INTO WESTERN CO. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON AVAILABLE LLVL
MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO SOUTHERN CO THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE.
THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE ADVANCING DRY
AIR...SO IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME CONVECTION FRI
AFTN AND EVE WILL BE ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE. SAT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO E
CO LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES OFF THE
MAX TEMP FOR THE PLAINS ON SUN...AS WELL AS BRING ISOLATED
CONVECTION BACK TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
F FOR THE PLAINS AND AROUND 80 F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS BOTH FRI AND
SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE EAST ON SUN. ONE THING TO
NOTE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
SAT...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT FUELS ARE IN
GREEN UP SO A FIREWX HIGHLIGHT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW FORECAST FOR THE STATE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH JUST ISOLATED MT CONVECTION
EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUE...WHICH SHOULD FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN INTO E CO FOR WED.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 F ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PLAINS BOTH MON
AND TUE...THEN DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR WED. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
CONDITIONS AT KCOS ARE EXPECTED TO GO FROM MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN
18Z AND 19Z...AND THEN GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. KPUB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. KALS WILL
ALSO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
628 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS...INCREASING POPS FOR THE PALM BEACH AREA AND
DECREASING POPS FOR THE GULF COAST AND FAR SOUTH. ALSO...IT IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, SO WENT WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL
(GFS INDICATES A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER NERN GULF BY
SATURDAY NIGHT). THIS WILL KEEP THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE SHORT- TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH
THE SW MEAN LOW-LEVEL (1000-700 MB) FLOW CONTINUING. ALTHOUGH THE
KINEMATICS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NOTED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE (ISOLATED) STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS EACH DAY WITH MID-LEVEL OR 500 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -9.5 TO -11 DEG C. ADDITIONALLY...
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE VULNERABLE OR SENSITIVE AREAS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MORE OF A
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE
BEGINS TO FILL AND POTENTIALLY CUT OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE NERN
GULF...PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
DAY.
85/AG
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CONVECTION MAY SLOW DOWN SOME. WHILE
MODELS ARE COMING IN MAINLY DRY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY, HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS.
/SI
AVIATION...
MORNING CONVECTION HAS LOCALLY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE KEEPING
CONVECTION FROM FORMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LEFTOVER
CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS...WHICH IS FURTHER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS BROWARD
AND PALM BEACH COUNTY STARTING AROUND 20Z DUE TO BETTER HEATING IN
THESE AREAS. THEREFORE DECIDED TO DELAY VCTS UNTIL AFTER 20Z FOR ALL
OF THE EAST COAST SITES.
MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
LOCAL WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY HEAVY
SHOWERS OR STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 90 74 89 / 80 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 90 77 90 / 60 40 20 40
MIAMI 74 91 76 90 / 40 40 20 40
NAPLES 73 88 72 90 / 20 40 20 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
...RAINY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
A 500 MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO HANG OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY.
RADAR DETECTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NATURE COAST AND
INTERIOR...WITH SOME CELLS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. 12Z
NAM AND 12Z GFS BOTH DEPICT THESE FOCUS AREAS WELL WITH LOW LEVEL
JETS OF 20-30 KTS AT 700 MB. PREFERRED THE MET IN A BLEND FOR MOST
FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH POPS
HAVE BEEN CHALLENGING. LOCAL GUIDANCE AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORTED
HIGHER POPS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4...THE TOUGHEST CALL HAS
BEEN IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE MUCH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED SO FAR
TODAY.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE COMING HOURS AND INTO THE
EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
DWINDLE LATER IN THE EVENING OVER LAND...BUT ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. AS THE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...OVER THE
WATER DEVELOPS...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH IT ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT
THAN INLAND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL TO LIMIT REACHING INTO THE 90S
AND KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
.MID TERM (FRIDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO FILL
LATE FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE MOVES OUT OF PHASE
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
COOL...AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING WILL
MARCH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR WHERE SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE.
WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AS HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER THE STATE...BUT THE MORNING HOURS WILL LIKELY STILL
HAVE ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ONTO THE
COAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY EAST OF I-75.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
NO SIGNIFICANT MID OR UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT
OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE NATURE
COAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH WEAK WIND
FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID- LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON TO MOVE INLAND WITH BEST
RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY EAST OF I-75 EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR MOST TERMINALS...LAL HAS SOME TSRA TO
THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT THE MOMENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
SOME VARIABLE GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH COASTAL TERMINALS /SRQ/TPA/PIE/ COULD SEE SOME
VCSH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION AGAIN ON FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAF AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR THE WIND
FLOW TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE ONLY HAZARD EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COASTAL REGIONS AND MOVING INLAND. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS... OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY ARE ELEVATED DISPERSION INDEX
VALUES INLAND AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AND WINDS STAYING BELOW CONCERN CRITERIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 89 74 88 / 30 60 30 60
FMY 74 91 72 90 / 40 40 30 60
GIF 72 90 72 91 / 40 60 20 60
SRQ 74 88 73 88 / 40 40 30 40
BKV 70 90 68 89 / 30 50 30 60
SPG 77 87 77 87 / 30 50 30 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MARINE...74/WYNN
MID TERM/LONG TERM...63/JILLSON
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
229 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL
(GFS INDICATES A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER NERN GULF BY
SATURDAY NIGHT). THIS WILL KEEP THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE SHORT- TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH
THE SW MEAN LOW-LEVEL (1000-700 MB) FLOW CONTINUING. ALTHOUGH THE
KINEMATICS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NOTED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE (ISOLATED) STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS EACH DAY WITH MID-LEVEL OR 500 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -9.5 TO -11 DEG C. ADDITIONALLY...
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE VULNERABLE OR SENSITIVE AREAS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MORE OF A
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE
BEGINS TO FILL AND POTENTIALLY CUT OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE NERN
GULF...PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
DAY.
85/AG
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CONVECTION MAY SLOW DOWN SOME. WHILE
MODELS ARE COMING IN MAINLY DRY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY, HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS.
/SI
&&
.AVIATION...
MORNING CONVECTION HAS LOCALLY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE KEEPING
CONVECTION FROM FORMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LEFTOVER
CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS...WHICH IS FURTHER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS BROWARD
AND PALM BEACH COUNTY STARTING AROUND 20Z DUE TO BETTER HEATING IN
THESE AREAS. THEREFORE DECIDED TO DELAY VCTS UNTIL AFTER 20Z FOR ALL
OF THE EAST COAST SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
LOCAL WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY HEAVY
SHOWERS OR STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 90 74 89 / 40 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 90 77 90 / 40 40 20 40
MIAMI 74 91 76 90 / 40 40 20 40
NAPLES 73 88 72 90 / 40 40 20 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10/CD
SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM...SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1207 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
A subtle surface front - evident in the surface pressure, wind,
and dewpoint fields - stretches across the area from SW to NE.
This front was roughly along a line from Panama City, to
Bainbridge, to northern Berrien County as of 16Z. During the
morning hours, scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed
along and ahead of the front and a few have been strong-severe
with gusty winds. The environment ahead of the front is
characterized by moderate instability of 1500-2000 j/kg and about
20 knots of effective bulk shear, which has been sufficient for
some organized multicell thunderstorms. There are also some
notable dry layers in the mid-levels of the atmosphere per the 12Z
Tallahassee sounding, as well as RAP analysis, so delta theta-E
values are quite elevated (25-30K). Such values can be favorable
for stronger downbursts, and we have already seen evidence of that
in a few storms. Therefore, "gusty winds" wording was added to the
forecast where more concentrated areas of thunderstorms are
expected. We decreased PoPs in the northwest half of the area -
behind the front - where dewpoints have dropped enough to reduce
instability substantially. Although a larger area of thunderstorms
is close to exiting our forecast area as of 16Z, additional
scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
&&
.Marine...
A SCEC headline was added to the east of Apalachicola earlier this
morning with several observation sites reporting sustained winds
in the 15-18 knot range. Winds should generally diminish this
afternoon (outside of thunderstorms), so the SCEC headline will
probably be able to be dropped later this afternoon or evening.
Winds and seas will continue to diminish Friday and remain minimal
through the weekend.
&&
.Prev Discussion [606 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Weakening upper trough axis will slide east of the forecast area
overnight tonight. Any remaining convection this evening should be
confined to the far eastern zones. Another shortwave is forecast
to dig into the base of the broad eastern CONUS trough on Friday,
leading to an increase in afternoon and evening convection,
especially west of the Apalachicola River where highest PoPs are
expected. The aforementioned shortwave is forecast to transition
into a cutoff low by Saturday as heights rise over the Ohio
Valley. With the cutoff low situated over the northeastern Gulf
Coast, expect to see an enhancement of the typical sea-breeze
convection for Saturday. Given the expected coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, high temps will likely be at or a
little below normal for Friday and Saturday.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Wet scenario to continue into extended period. The larger scale
pattern shows a mid level trough moving into the Lower MS Valley
with this feature developing into a low over MS on Sat. A surface
ridge will remain south of the area through the period. This will
increase onshore (mainly SW) flow across Gulf region. The
approaching low will most likely stall out bringing cloud cover
and rain Friday night until Tuesday with the support of an upper
level trough. This pattern is indicative of higher than typical
rain chances for the region. By Wednesday high pressure will
return bringing a drier weather pattern.
.Aviation...
[Through 12z Friday] Mainly VFR conditions will prevail. Scattered
convection is expected this morning through this afternoon with
the best chance at TLH and VLD and lower chances farther to the
west.
.Fire Weather...
No big fire weather concerns are expected through the next several
days. Dispersions may climb above 75 this afternoon over most of the
area away from the coast.
.Hydrology...
All area rivers are below flood stage. An upper level trough will
bring scattered rain chances for the region through the weekend.
While locally heavy rain will be possible, significant impacts on
river levels are not anticipated.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 85 71 90 69 88 / 60 30 40 30 50
Panama City 85 74 87 71 87 / 30 10 40 30 50
Dothan 90 70 91 69 90 / 10 20 50 40 50
Albany 91 69 91 69 90 / 10 20 30 30 50
Valdosta 91 69 90 68 87 / 70 30 40 30 50
Cross City 83 70 89 68 88 / 70 30 30 30 50
Apalachicola 85 75 87 71 85 / 60 10 40 30 50
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT/CAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
607 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 605 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014
The forecast is largely on track this evening, just made a few
tweaks to account for ongoing trends. Shortwave ridging has built
into the region for the time being, meaning any precip threat has
come to an end. Attention will then turn toward the west over the
next few hours as a shortwave trough and associated low pressure/MCV
work into the region. A few strong storms have been noted across
portions of NE Arkansas where a low-level theta-e axis resides and
associated stronger instability. This better thunderstorm coverage
should continue to work ESE along this axis this evening into
portions of TN. Further north across our area, still expect mainly
showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder overnight. Have
slowed down the timing of this precip into the region by an hour or
two based on the latest HRRR which has a decent handle on ongoing
convection, otherwise the rest of the forecast looks on target.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014
Other than a stray shower lingering in our far east, we should see a
quiet evening as brief upper level ridging takes over behind the
departing trough. A look at visible satellite imagery shows cu not
really becoming more agitated, and water vapor imagery shows drier
air working in from the west. Meanwhile, current radar only shows
one blip in Cumberland county so won`t even carry mention of
isolated showers as coverage is less than 20%. Temperatures are right
on track to top out right around 80 and in the low 80s.
As we move into the overnight, a cold front trailing from a potent
upper level system over the upper Great Lakes will approach, passing
through by mid afternoon on Friday. Expect widely scattered to
scattered showers/iso T along this boundary as it passes, with
numerous showers possible along the Tennessee border, where better
deep moisture will be present. Looking upstream at what is currently
going on compared to what model QPF shows would leave me to believe
that coverage may end up being on the lower side. Especially, if you
consider how poorly models have performed lately with QPF fields.
Nevertheless, with the frontal passage and at least some deep
moisture to work with, 30-50% coverage in most spots is reasonable.
Best timing will be from around dawn through midday across central
and western parts of the CWA. Showers/storms could linger into the
early evening east.
Look for lows tonight mainly in the 61-66 degree range. Highs on
Friday will be a bit tricky due to the frontal passage/cloud cover.
Will go aggressively cool in the eastern CWA where low clouds will
hang the longest and only top out in the low 70s. Elsewhere, the CWA
should see enough sun mid to late afternoon to find the mid and
upper 70s.
Surface high pressure and ridging aloft build in by Friday night
leading to a clear and very cool night. Have most lows dropping into
the 52-57 degree range! A few slightly cooler spots may be possible
in sheltered valleys.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014
After a brief cooldown Saturday will begin a transition back to warm
and humid conditions across the region. High pressure at the surface
will begin to shift east and return flow will set up bringing
moisture back in to the area. Aloft ridging will build across the
southeastern CONUS. A low pressure system will form across the
Plains and track into MN Saturday through Sunday and its cold front
will approach the area through Monday. However, it is expected to
stall across Indiana, keeping the forecast area in southerly flow
through mid week.
Saturday looks to be the coolest day of the period, with the lowest
dewpoints as well. Highs will top out in the lower 80s. Sunday`s
temps will top out in the mid 80s with dewpoints rising back into
the mid 60s. An isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out
across the far south central Kentucky on Sunday, but think the
chance is fairly low, so will keep the forecast dry for now.
Rain chances will return next week as warm and humid conditions lead
to disorganized afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each
day. Afternoons will be quite muggy with highs topping out in the
upper 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014
Mainly VFR conditions expected through this forecast cycle, although
could reduce visibilities overnight in fog and/or light showers, and
bring in lower ceilings on Friday. Any chance for a shower late this
afternoon/evening would only be at LEX, and even then
chances/coverage are too low to mention.
A cold front will approach overnight, with most of the precipitation
and potential lower ceilings post frontal. Therefore, think the
initial lower visibilities will be due to fog/mist at BWG/LEX,
however as the front passes more solid MVFR ceilings are possible
along with scattered showers and a rumble of thunder.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.AVIATION...ADDED VCTS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT
ACADIANA TAF SITES AS ONCOMING MCS OUT OF EAST TEXAS ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING, IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OUTFLOW TO BUCKLE THE CAP
AND ALLOW CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. APPROACHING TROF TNITE SHOULD REINITIATE
CONVECTION SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS AFTER 09Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS NE TX THIS MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
DEFINITELY MADE A COME BACK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...THE AIR HAS THAT SWALLOW YOU FEEL TO IT WHEN YOU WALK
OUTSIDE. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS EVERYTHING COVERED QUITE
WELL...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE THIS MORNING BEING THE INCLUSION OF
SMALL POPS ACROSS THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND HRRR GUIDANCE...NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THIS INITIAL ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO REACH THAT FAR
SOUTH AND/OR SEE NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERATED ALONG SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATING OUTFLOWS.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E GULF...KEEPING
A FAIRLY LIGHT S FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS INLAND ARE MAINLY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS NEAR 70S TO THE LOWER 70S
PREVAIL.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SE ACROSS KS/N OK THIS MORNING
IS PRODUCING A LARGE MCS OVER C OK. THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SSE TODAY AND ACROSS
NE TX/N LA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS
SHOW REGENERATION/CONTINUATION OF THIS COMPLEX AS IT CONTINUES SSE THIS
EVENING. WITH AMPLE INFLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT...ITS EXPECTED TO KEEP
ITS INTENSITY THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.
FOR THIS...SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA FOR AREAS
JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THRU 12Z FRI. KEPT THE INCREASING
POP TREND BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF SE
TX/W LA...WITH THE HIGHER POPS SPREADING SSE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SE TX/C AND S LA BETWEEN 06-18Z FRI.
FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ONLY ISO SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE DIMINISHES A BIT...AND WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON
HEATING. FOR MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM TX...FURTHER LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO...EXPECT
TEMPS TO INCREASE A BIT...WITH MID/UPPER 70S FOR LOWS...AND
LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 90 76 87 74 89 / 10 40 50 30 20
KBPT 90 76 87 74 88 / 10 40 50 20 20
KAEX 92 72 87 70 90 / 20 50 50 20 20
KLFT 91 75 87 73 89 / 10 30 50 30 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have removed strong wording regarding
thunderstorms this evening for the western portion of the county
warning area. GFS and NAM indicate convective development after 00z
but severe parameters do not appear overly impressive. Also, HRRR
and RUC analysis do not show significant thunderstorm development or
coverage after 00z. Awaiting SPC update this morning but their
earlier update dropped the `See Text` message that was there
earlier. Temperatures look on track.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over southwest
Montana after 21z then spread northeast into the evening. These
thunderstorms are expected to affect KHLN and possibly KGTF/KLWT but
should stay north of KBZN and not reach KHVR. Other thunderstorms
could affect KCTB. The thunderstorms are expected to weaken by
mid-evening. There will be local wind gusts to 40 knots with the
thunderstorms with a threat of brief MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy
rain. Small hail could also occur. Then later this evening into
early Friday morning showers and possibly thunderstorms will affect
the area from the northern Rocky Mountain Front through KCTB and
possibly as far east as KHVR. There will be at least a brief period
of heavy rain and MVFR/IFR conditions. Guidance suggests MVFR
ceilings could become widespread from the northern Rocky Mountain
Front to east of KCTB by Friday morning with mountains becoming
obscured. Farther south a cold front will move east through the
forecast area late tonight and Friday morning. Expect scattered
showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms with the front and
conditions should generally be VFR. Blank
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 405 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2014
Today through Saturday...A progressive pattern aloft will
transition the forecast area from generally quiet and warm today
to cooler and unsettled on Saturday. Main driving force in weather
through the short term period is a relatively strong trough that
is currently off the Pacific Northwest coast. This system will
move inland today bringing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the western mountains by late afternoon.
Precipitation coverage becomes widespread over the Northern Rocky
Mountain Front and spreads out over the adjacent plains of my
northwest forecast zones overnight. There is also a chance that an
isolated storm or two could become borderline severe with large
hail and strong winds during the early evening hours. Latest
models suggests that the best location for any strong to severe
storms will remain west of a line from western Hill County
southwest through Great Falls to Butte. For Friday through
Saturday, models in good agreement moving the upper trough over
the Northern Rockies and transitioning to a positive tilt trough
extending northeastward into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. During
this time frame temperatures will fall below seasonal averages
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each
period. mpj
Saturday night through Thursday...An interesting divergence in model
solutions for the long term as models continue to struggle with the
progression of a low pressure disturbance transitioning from the
Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest. GFS solution tries restart
the progressive zonal flow and quickly propels the disturbance out
of the area by Tuesday evening. The ECMWF and GEM both retrograde
and deepen the low over the rocky mountains and allow for it to
produce significantly more precipitation over the region through the
bulk of the long term. There is some credence for the GFS solution
as the ECMWF ensemble suite does also move the system out faster
than the operation model, but still slower than the GFS. Have leaned
towards the cooler and wetter solution of the ECMWF, however did
reduce pops slightly below model solutions due to the lack of
confidence. Regardless of the inconsistencies in the extreme long
term, this weekend does look to be unsettled as all models continue
to have diffluent flow and multiple impulses move across the area
through Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to remain near or below
seasonal averages through the extended. Suk
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 75 46 69 42 / 10 30 30 30
CTB 71 45 63 40 / 10 60 50 30
HLN 80 49 71 43 / 20 30 30 30
BZN 79 44 71 40 / 10 20 60 60
WEY 73 37 65 30 / 10 10 40 40
DLN 79 45 68 39 / 20 20 50 50
HVR 74 46 72 43 / 10 40 40 30
LWT 69 44 67 40 / 10 20 40 50
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1010 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have removed strong wording regarding
thunderstorms this evening for the western portion of the county
warning area. GFS and NAM indicate convective development after 00z
but severe parameters do not appear overly impressive. Also, HRRR
and RUC analysis do not show significant thunderstorm development or
coverage after 00z. Awaiting SPC update this morning but their
earlier update dropped the `See Text` message that was there
earlier. Temperatures look on track.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the bulk of the forecast
period..however convection is expected to initiate after 00z over
the area with some strong/severe thunderstorms possible across
Central and North Central Montana. Showers will continue to move
into the area with decent instability aloft overnight. Thunderstorm
threat should diminish late into the evening hours, however
scattered showers will continue through the remainder of period.
Brief intrusion below VFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms. Suk
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 405 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2014
Today through Saturday...A progressive pattern aloft will
transition the forecast area from generally quiet and warm today
to cooler and unsettled on Saturday. Main driving force in weather
through the short term period is a relatively strong trough that
is currently off the Pacific Northwest coast. This system will
move inland today bringing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the western mountains by late afternoon.
Precipitation coverage becomes widespread over the Northern Rocky
Mountain Front and spreads out over the adjacent plains of my
northwest forecast zones overnight. There is also a chance that an
isolated storm or two could become borderline severe with large
hail and strong winds during the early evening hours. Latest
models suggests that the best location for any strong to severe
storms will remain west of a line from western Hill County
southwest through Great Falls to Butte. For Friday through
Saturday, models in good agreement moving the upper trough over
the Northern Rockies and transitioning to a positive tilt trough
extending northeastward into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. During
this time frame temperatures will fall below seasonal averages
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each
period. mpj
Saturday night through Thursday...An interesting divergence in model
solutions for the long term as models continue to struggle with the
progression of a low pressure disturbance transitioning from the
Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest. GFS solution tries restart
the progressive zonal flow and quickly propels the disturbance out
of the area by Tuesday evening. The ECMWF and GEM both retrograde
and deepen the low over the rocky mountains and allow for it to
produce significantly more precipitation over the region through the
bulk of the long term. There is some credence for the GFS solution
as the ECMWF ensemble suite does also move the system out faster
than the operation model, but still slower than the GFS. Have leaned
towards the cooler and wetter solution of the ECMWF, however did
reduce pops slightly below model solutions due to the lack of
confidence. Regardless of the inconsistencies in the extreme long
term, this weekend does look to be unsettled as all models continue
to have diffluent flow and multiple impulses move across the area
through Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to remain near or below
seasonal averages through the extended. Suk
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 75 46 69 42 / 10 30 30 30
CTB 71 45 63 40 / 10 60 50 30
HLN 80 49 71 43 / 20 30 30 30
BZN 79 44 71 40 / 10 20 60 60
WEY 73 37 65 30 / 10 10 40 40
DLN 79 45 68 39 / 20 20 50 50
HVR 74 46 72 43 / 10 40 40 30
LWT 69 44 67 40 / 10 20 40 50
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1204 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
CLEARING IS IN PROGRESS...BUT AS THE WRF GOES-R SIMULATED FOG
PRODUCT SUGGESTED...MVFR STRATUS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS N-CNTRL NEB
AND WAS DROPPING S INTO THE FCST AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
AND MIX OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE THIS MORNING
/15Z-16Z/. AFTER VIEWING THE WRF GOES-R SIMULATED IR IMAGERY...
THE SKY FCST WAS LEFT AS IS FROM 400 AM. W OF HWY 281 WILL
PROBABLY SEE A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF 10K FT ALTOCU AND PATCHY
CIRROSTRATUS. M/SUNNY SHOULD DO JUST FINE.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...
ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES
ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED
FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE
FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED
OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT
BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING
TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY DIED
OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE DRY.
WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN
NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND
THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS.
TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT
SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME
VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW
IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE.
THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS
KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS
OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS
TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY
FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE
OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W.
THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT.
INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS
MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST
NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY
CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE
TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME
LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH.
POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED.
GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT
CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES.
THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD.
PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS.
PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO
OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL
AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
PER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE 12-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY CONTAINS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE (IF NOT HIGHER CHANCES) OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AT LEAST
SOME PORTION OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE TWO MAIN POINTS
THAT NEED TO BE MADE RIGHT OFF THE TOP: FIRST OF ALL...BY FAR AND
AWAY THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...AND THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. ALONG THESE LINES...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED
A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA TO PART OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS DAY 3
OUTLOOK TECHNICALLY ONLY HIGHLIGHTS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF
THE CWA...THIS FORECASTER IS OF THE OPINION THAT ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD CONSIDER ITSELF TO BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS POINT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
SLIGHT RISK EXPANDED IN AREA AS IT GETS INTO THE DAY 2 AND
EVENTUALLY DAY 1 TIME FRAME. THE SECOND MAIN POINT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ESPECIALLY BY THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND THE PLACEMENT
AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS DURING THESE FINAL 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST
ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE. GIVEN THIS INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY...MOST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME PERIODS ARE NO
HIGHER THAN 20S-30S...AND ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MODESTLY
HIGHER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...HAVE TRIMMED OUT THE
MENTION OF 50 POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURE WISE...MADE FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS
6-DAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED TO TOP OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S ON MOST DAYS. HOWEVER...PROBABLY THE MOST
CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS SATURDAY...WHICH
ALSO HAS A CHANCE AT BEING THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CURRENT FORECAST NUDGED UP HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES...GETTING
MORE OF THE CWA INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S
SOUTHWEST...THERE COULD EASILY BE ROOM FOR FUTURE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS...AS SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA COULD FLIRT WITH LOW-90S...WITH SOUTHWEST AREAS
POTENTIALLY EVEN UPPER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MOST NIGHTS ARE
AIMED IN THE SEASONABLY-TYPICAL UPPER 50S-MID 60S RANGE...SO NOT
FORESEEING ANY BIG SURPRISES HERE.
AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED POTENTIAL HAZARDS...ITS BEEN AWHILE
SINCE FORECAST SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE REALLY COME CLOSE TO SOLIDLY
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH. AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT ADVERTISE ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS...ITS AT LEAST
LOOKING LIKE MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA COULD
APPROACH IT ON SATURDAY. ON BOTH DAYS...THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GETTING INTO A BIT MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AND IN RESPONSE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 20 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND MORE SO 25-30 MPH IN THE WEST (WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OF COURSE). ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT...QUESTIONS ABOUT SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL ARISE...AS SOME MODELS ARE BONE DRY WHILE OTHERS GENERATE
AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE AXIS OF A
VERY STRONG 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AS
EVIDENT BY 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY...OPTED TO STAY THE COURSE AND LEAVE THE
EVENING PERIOD VOID OF POPS...WHILE BLANKETING MOST OF THE CWA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...A ROGUE STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND ITS ALSO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE ROBUST EVENING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA TRIES TO SURVIVE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO AT LEAST WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED OFF THE TOP THIS 24-HOUR
PERIOD LIKELY COMMANDS THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST ATTENTION FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. COMPARED TO THE SEVERE EVENT
THAT JUST OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY SETUP LOOKS
TO BE MORE POTENT WITH A GREATER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS ARE LIKELY OVER-DOING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE A BIT...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST 2000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 50-60KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE DEPARTING FRI NIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CAPPED AS THE POTENT MID/UPPER WAVE SLIDES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AM EXPECTING RATHER VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY LIKELY TIED TO A
FAIRLY NARROW ZONE ALONG THE INVADING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
LIKELY TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY RIPE
FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A WIND THREAT POSSIBLY ENHANCED
BY UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING A NOTABLE TORNADO THREAT...CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THIS
POSSIBILITY EITHER ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE THE LONGEST. HYDRO-
WISE...COULD EASILY SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA RECEIVING A QUICK 1-
2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...BUT FORTUNATELY A GENERALLY DRY 48
HOURS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE ANY MORE THAN
LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE MOST PART. POPS FOR MOST
OF THE CWA ARE STILL IN THE LIKELY 60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
SOME AREAS.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IN REALITY THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY
DRY/STORM-FREE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS...BUT AT LEAST
FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT POP IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE
MORNING JUST IN CASE A LITTLE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY STILL
LINGERS...AND HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST
1/3 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE PRIMARY MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF/GFS START TO INCREASINGLY DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF GENERALLY
KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOCAL FLOW MORE QUASI-ZONAL WITH VARIOUS PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS
TIME...UNCERTAINTY IS FAR TOO HIGH TO EVEN PINPOINT A TIME FRAME
WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE. POPS ARE LARGELY A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AND FOR NOW THE HIGHEST 40 POPS ARE
FOCUSED ON MONDAY DAYTIME BUT ITS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT WAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND EVEN SURFACE
PATTERNS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS GET INCREDIBLY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE
ANOTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A VERY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...WHILE THE GFS IS COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS ARE GENERALLY AGREEING ON DRY CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH LOW-END 20-
30 POPS UNTIL THINGS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...
ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES
ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED
FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE
FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED
OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT
BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING
TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY DIED
OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE DRY.
WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN
NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND
THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS.
TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT
SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME
VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW
IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE.
THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS
KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS
OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS
TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY
FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE
OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W.
THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT.
INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS
MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST
NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY
CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE
TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME
LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH.
POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED.
GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT
CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES.
THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD.
PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS.
PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO
OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL
AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
PER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE 12-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY CONTAINS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE (IF NOT HIGHER CHANCES) OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AT LEAST
SOME PORTION OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE TWO MAIN POINTS
THAT NEED TO BE MADE RIGHT OFF THE TOP: FIRST OF ALL...BY FAR AND
AWAY THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...AND THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. ALONG THESE LINES...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED
A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA TO PART OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS DAY 3
OUTLOOK TECHNICALLY ONLY HIGHLIGHTS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF
THE CWA...THIS FORECASTER IS OF THE OPINION THAT ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD CONSIDER ITSELF TO BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS POINT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
SLIGHT RISK EXPANDED IN AREA AS IT GETS INTO THE DAY 2 AND
EVENTUALLY DAY 1 TIME FRAME. THE SECOND MAIN POINT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ESPECIALLY BY THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND THE PLACEMENT
AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS DURING THESE FINAL 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST
ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE. GIVEN THIS INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY...MOST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME PERIODS ARE NO
HIGHER THAN 20S-30S...AND ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MODESTLY
HIGHER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...HAVE TRIMMED OUT THE
MENTION OF 50 POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURE WISE...MADE FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS
6-DAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED TO TOP OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S ON MOST DAYS. HOWEVER...PROBABLY THE MOST
CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS SATURDAY...WHICH
ALSO HAS A CHANCE AT BEING THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CURRENT FORECAST NUDGED UP HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES...GETTING
MORE OF THE CWA INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S
SOUTHWEST...THERE COULD EASILY BE ROOM FOR FUTURE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS...AS SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA COULD FLIRT WITH LOW-90S...WITH SOUTHWEST AREAS
POTENTIALLY EVEN UPPER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MOST NIGHTS ARE
AIMED IN THE SEASONABLY-TYPICAL UPPER 50S-MID 60S RANGE...SO NOT
FORESEEING ANY BIG SURPRISES HERE.
AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED POTENTIAL HAZARDS...ITS BEEN AWHILE
SINCE FORECAST SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE REALLY COME CLOSE TO SOLIDLY
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH. AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT ADVERTISE ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS...ITS AT LEAST
LOOKING LIKE MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA COULD
APPROACH IT ON SATURDAY. ON BOTH DAYS...THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GETTING INTO A BIT MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AND IN RESPONSE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 20 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND MORE SO 25-30 MPH IN THE WEST (WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OF COURSE). ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT...QUESTIONS ABOUT SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL ARISE...AS SOME MODELS ARE BONE DRY WHILE OTHERS GENERATE
AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE AXIS OF A
VERY STRONG 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AS
EVIDENT BY 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY...OPTED TO STAY THE COURSE AND LEAVE THE
EVENING PERIOD VOID OF POPS...WHILE BLANKETING MOST OF THE CWA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...A ROGUE STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND ITS ALSO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE ROBUST EVENING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA TRIES TO SURVIVE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO AT LEAST WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED OFF THE TOP THIS 24-HOUR
PERIOD LIKELY COMMANDS THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST ATTENTION FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. COMPARED TO THE SEVERE EVENT
THAT JUST OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY SETUP LOOKS
TO BE MORE POTENT WITH A GREATER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS ARE LIKELY OVER-DOING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE A BIT...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST 2000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 50-60KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE DEPARTING FRI NIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CAPPED AS THE POTENT MID/UPPER WAVE SLIDES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AM EXPECTING RATHER VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY LIKELY TIED TO A
FAIRLY NARROW ZONE ALONG THE INVADING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
LIKELY TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY RIPE
FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A WIND THREAT POSSIBLY ENHANCED
BY UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING A NOTABLE TORNADO THREAT...CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THIS
POSSIBILITY EITHER ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE THE LONGEST. HYDRO-
WISE...COULD EASILY SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA RECEIVING A QUICK 1-
2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...BUT FORTUNATELY A GENERALLY DRY 48
HOURS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE ANY MORE THAN
LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE MOST PART. POPS FOR MOST
OF THE CWA ARE STILL IN THE LIKELY 60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
SOME AREAS.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IN REALITY THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY
DRY/STORM-FREE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS...BUT AT LEAST
FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT POP IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE
MORNING JUST IN CASE A LITTLE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY STILL
LINGERS...AND HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST
1/3 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE PRIMARY MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF/GFS START TO INCREASINGLY DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF GENERALLY
KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOCAL FLOW MORE QUASI-ZONAL WITH VARIOUS PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS
TIME...UNCERTAINTY IS FAR TOO HIGH TO EVEN PINPOINT A TIME FRAME
WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE. POPS ARE LARGELY A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AND FOR NOW THE HIGHEST 40 POPS ARE
FOCUSED ON MONDAY DAYTIME BUT ITS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT WAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND EVEN SURFACE
PATTERNS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS GET INCREDIBLY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE
ANOTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A VERY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...WHILE THE GFS IS COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS ARE GENERALLY AGREEING ON DRY CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH LOW-END 20-
30 POPS UNTIL THINGS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OCCASIONAL CLOUDS NEAR 4000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY STARTING AROUND
14Z. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 14KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
19KTS...TO START THE TAF PERIOD...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
RECENT RAINFALL: AS ANTICIPATED LAST EVENINGS STORMS DEVELOPED
PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN WAS NARROW AND STRETCHED ACROSS ROOKS-OSBORNE-
JEWELL COUNTIES. LOOKING AT ESTIMATED RAINFALL FOR THE PAST 4
WEEKS...THE AREA FROM THE TRI-CITIES SE TO HEBRON AND NE TO
COLUMBUS HAS SEEN A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES. THE SW
HALF OF THE FCST AREA /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/ HAS SEEN A 2-6
INCH SURPLUS OR 125-200% OF NORMAL.
UPSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS...RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 2 WKS HAS BEEN 200-600% OF NORMAL. THAT HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE PLATTE RVR SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. THE FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR WRN DAWSON
COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING AROUND GOTHENBURG. FCSTS INDICATE THAT
BOTH THE N AND S BRANCHES AT COZAD WILL APPROACH OR WERE ALREADY
NEAR ACTION STAGE. KEARNEY IS FCST TO CREST JUST SHORT OF FLOOD
STAGE THIS WEEKEND AND WE ISSUED AN ESF /HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ AT 1109
PM LAST EVENING FOR THIS. GRAND ISLAND IS FCST TO RISE TO ACTION
STAGE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE PLATTE RVR SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR WATER
LEVELS VIA THE RIVER&LAKES LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF OUR
WEBPAGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
HYDROLOGY...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
930 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS TODAY. WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
COMBINED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WILL CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWED A PATCH OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA. BOTH NAM AND RAP FORECASTS INDICATE
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING AND THEN DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON
AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES CLOSER AND SCOURS OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 302 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...
THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE WIND SPEEDS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ON TRACK. NEW
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN RIGHT IN LINE LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED ON
FRIDAY AS FORECAST WINDS APPROACH CRITERIA IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THAT FOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. OTHER THAN THE WIND...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE WEEKEND PROMISES TO BE VERY
NICE. ONE SIDE BENEFIT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IS
THAT OUR TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO.
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
A TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. THE EC
MOS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS MOS IN TEMPS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON THIS NEW AGREEMENT BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS THE GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST CONSIDERING THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD 10 DEGREE SPREAD
IN THE EC ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS
SHOULD BE ON LIGHTER SIDE SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MODEL FORECASTS INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
AND GEM FORECAST A LOW DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES AND THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS,
SIMILAR TO 24 HRS, UNDERPLAYS THIS FEATURE AND ESSENTIALLY TAKES IT
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. THE GFS ALSO HAS A WEAK EASTERN
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THAT THE EC/GEM DO NOT SHOW.
THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MOS HAS A TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 19 DEGREES IN
LAS VEGAS FOR TUESDAY INDICATING EITHER A POTENT TROUGH OR A STRONG
RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK IS LOW AT THIS POINT AND NON-EXISTENT REGARDING ANY DETAILS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER...WE
STRUGGLED WITH IDEA OF EXPANDING THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
NORTHWEST DESERTS AND PLATEAU (AZZ102) FOR TODAY. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THIS AREA ARE GOING TO FLIRT WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR ABOUT A 4-5
HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT CRITERIA LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE SPORADIC AND MORE ISOLATED WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AND MAKE
A MENTION OF THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TRICKY FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL CENTER AROUND WHETHER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE A BRIEF
APPEARANCE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WIND KICK IN TO OVERPOWER THEM. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE FORECAST TODAY. BUT WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS THAT FAVOR CONFIGURATION 4 IN THE TAF FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND STRENGTHEN MORE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT CROSSWINDS AT SOME TERMINALS ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ460>464.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR NVZ460>466.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ101-102.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ226.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STUMPF
PREV DISCUSSION...LERICOS/SALMEN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AFTER THE MAIN
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DRY AND FAIR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A NOTABLE
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
RADARS BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP THIS AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVANCE OVER THE REGION. LATEST
SURFACE OBS ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING SPC MESOANALYSIS NOW
SUGGESTING WARM FRONT IS STRETCHED IN A NORTH-SOUTH FASHION ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. AS RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THUNDER
MENTION EAST OF I-81 AS THIS AREA REMAINS VERY STABLE PER LATEST
MLCAPE ANALYSIS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT
TIME.
1010 AM UPDATE... SO FAR THIS MORNING...REGIONAL
RADARS ONLY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BGM
FCST AREA. MAIN CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON REMAIN FOCUSED
ON LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY
HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. RIGHT NOW...MAIN
THING GOING AGAINST ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE
CONTINUED LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
SAID...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE SFC WARM FRONT THAT REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF TO OUR WEST WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
ACTUALLY SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING LATER TODAY
AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A NUMEROUS SHWR MENTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE FCST MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THE
PRESENT TIME.
AT 400 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY DECREASE.
THROUGH TONIGHT, A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM 1.50-1.80 INCHES ALONG WITH WARM
CLOUD LAYER AROUND 10K FT. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
ACTIVITY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN
NUMEROUS THROUGH EVENING. DUE TO CONTINUED E/SE COOL/STABLE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CAPE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION BUT EVEN HERE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG. WILL MENTION SCATTERED TRW WEST OF I81 AND ISOLATED EAST.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER WITH UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW OVER NRN MINNESOTA
WILL DROP THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES AND PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
JUICY UNTIL FROPA SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CAPE
VALUES ARE BETTER GENERALLY 400-800 J/KG BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TALL/SKINNY CAPE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
NON IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR VALES AND MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATES
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP MENTION IN
HWO FOR MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN PTN OF CWA FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD WILL BE DRY
AND MAINLY CLEAR. MAXES ON SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN VCNTY RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST....
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS
WELL-ENTRENCHED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER
RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY EARLY WEEK
AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TRACKING EAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS FEATURE REMAINS STALLED TO
OUR NORTH.
IN TERMS OF TEMPS...STRONG WARM ADVECTION EARLY WEEK SHOULD ALLOW
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
WEDNESDAY. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS
APPEAR POSSIBLE AS STALLED FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THU UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-
WIDE THIS AFTN AND EVE...AS SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS ROLL THROUGH THE
RGN. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE MVFR
CAT...BUT IFR CIG BASES ARE PLAUSIBLE AT KBGM/KITH. SINCE THUNDER
SEEMS RATHER ISOLD ATTM...WE`RE INCLINED TO LEAVE THIS MENTION OUT
OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS. TSRA CAN ALWAYS BE ADDED ON AN INDIVIDUAL
BASIS...AS NEEDED.
LTR TNT INTO EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD LWR CIGS ARE FORESEEN ONCE
AGN...SIMILAR TO THE LAST SVRL OVERNIGHTS/EARLY MRNGS. IFR CIG
BASES ARE QUITE PLAUSIBLE AT THE MORE ELEVATED SITES
(KBGM/KITH)...WITH MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI...AHD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE EXPECTED
AGN.
GUSTY S TO SE SFC WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE (AS MUCH AS 20-25
KT)...WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT AND FRI MRNG (MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS).
OUTLOOK...
SAT THROUGH TUE... VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN
MRNG FOG ARE PSBL AT KELM SUN AND MON. SOME RESTRICTIVE CONDS MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS MON NGT AND TUE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...CMG/KAH
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
144 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AFTER THE MAIN
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DRY AND FAIR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A NOTABLE
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
RADARS BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP THIS AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVANCE OVER THE REGION. LATEST
SURFACE OBS ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING SPC MESOANALYSIS NOW
SUGGESTING WARM FRONT IS STRETCHED IN A NORTH-SOUTH FASHION ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. AS RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THUNDER
MENTION EAST OF I-81 AS THIS AREA REMAINS VERY STABLE PER LATEST
MLCAPE ANALYSIS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT
TIME.
1010 AM UPDATE... SO FAR THIS MORNING...REGIONAL
RADARS ONLY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BGM
FCST AREA. MAIN CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON REMAIN FOCUSED
ON LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY
HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. RIGHT NOW...MAIN
THING GOING AGAINST ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE
CONTINUED LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
SAID...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE SFC WARM FRONT THAT REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF TO OUR WEST WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
ACTUALLY SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING LATER TODAY
AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A NUMEROUS SHWR MENTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE FCST MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THE
PRESENT TIME.
AT 400 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY DECREASE.
THROUGH TONIGHT, A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM 1.50-1.80 INCHES ALONG WITH WARM
CLOUD LAYER AROUND 10K FT. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
ACTIVITY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN
NUMEROUS THROUGH EVENING. DUE TO CONTINUED E/SE COOL/STABLE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CAPE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION BUT EVEN HERE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG. WILL MENTION SCATTERED TRW WEST OF I81 AND ISOLATED EAST.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER WITH UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW OVER NRN MINNESOTA
WILL DROP THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES AND PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
JUICY UNTIL FROPA SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CAPE
VALUES ARE BETTER GENERALLY 400-800 J/KG BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TALL/SKINNY CAPE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
NON IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR VALES AND MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATES
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP MENTION IN
HWO FOR MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN PTN OF CWA FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD WILL BE DRY
AND MAINLY CLEAR. MAXES ON SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN VCNTY RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST....
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS
WELL-ENTRENCHED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER
RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY EARLY WEEK
AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TRACKING EAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS FEATURE REMAINS STALLED TO
OUR NORTH.
IN TERMS OF TEMPS...STRONG WARM ADVECTION EARLY WEEK SHOULD ALLOW
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
WEDNESDAY. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS
APPEAR POSSIBLE AS STALLED FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THU UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-
WIDE THIS AFTN AND EVE...AS SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS ROLL THROUGH THE
RGN. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE MVFR
CAT...BUT IFR CIG BASES ARE PLAUSIBLE AT KBGM/KITH. SINCE THUNDER
SEEMS RATHER ISOLD ATTM...WE`RE INCLINED TO LEAVE THIS MENTION OUT
OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS. TSRA CAN ALWAYS BE ADDED ON AN INDIVIDUAL
BASIS...AS NEEDED.
LTR TNT INTO EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD LWR CIGS ARE FORESEEN ONCE
AGN...SIMILAR TO THE LAST SVRL OVERNIGHTS/EARLY MRNGS. IFR CIG
BASES ARE QUITE PLAUSIBLE AT THE MORE ELEVATED SITES
(KBGM/KITH)...WITH MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AGN FRI...AHD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE
EXPECTED AGN.
GUSTY S TO SE SFC WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE (AS MUCH AS 20-25
KT)...WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT AND FRI MRNG (MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS).
OUTLOOK...
SAT THROUGH TUE... VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN
MRNG FOG ARE PSBL AT KELM SUN AND MON. SOME RESTRICTIVE CONDS MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS MON NGT AND TUE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...CMG/KAH
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN
STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WITH
OBSERVED PW OVER 2 INCHES AND LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH AROUND 10K
FT. WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING AND LIFTING...WITH BETTER
EARLY HEATING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE COINCIDENT WITH THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE IS LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ALREADY...WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO TRAIN FROM WILSON NORTH TOWARD ROANOKE RAPIDS.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS MLCAPE RISES TOWARD 1000 J/KG
WITHOUT ANY CINH. YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WAS HEAVIEST NORTH OF HWY
64...AND THOSE AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING
TODAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
PER HOUR. EARLY ON THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER/SLOW DESTABILIZATION...BUT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR OVER UPSTATE SC THAT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE DCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SHOW SOME
DEVELOPMENT BACK TOWARD THE KCLT/KGSP AREA AFTER 18Z...SO THERE MAY
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE APPROACHING THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WILL BE ADJUSTING LIKELY POPS TO BE
HIGHEST OVER THE EAST THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. HIGHS
MOSTLY 83-88. -BLS
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING
FROM 1.4-1.7 INCHES (HIGHEST ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THIS AND THE
FACT THAT THE BEST DPVA IS PROGGED TO ALSO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THIS
IS WHERE THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED.
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...WITH MLCAPE BELOW
1000 J/KG...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A CONCERN. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
AREA...IN ADDITION TO THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. TEMPS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE/MCV ORIGINATING FROM THE DEVELOPING
MCS OVER ARKLATEX ATTM WILL ADVANCE ESEWD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/DEEP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CORRALLED BY THE EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION INITIALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT
NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES
OUT WITH MORE EQUITABLE...DIURNAL CONVECTION AREA-WIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A RISE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN...NOW EAST OF
KRWI...WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MARGINALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER UP STATE SC ARE MOVING TOWARD THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND MAY ENCROACH UPON KINT/KGSO BY 21Z. IT REMAINS
A LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE...BUT
A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
FURTHER EAST...THE VERY MOISTURE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MAY REACH VICINITY OF
KFAY/KRDU AND KRWI THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPEPR
DISTURBANCE...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL THEN BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH SEEMS MOST LIKE FROM KRDU TO KRWI BASED ON
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD/MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD/BLS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
252 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STILL LINGERS ACROSS
FAR SE OK WITH DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ECNTRL OK. HAVE
NOTED ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW OF
THESE WILL BECOME STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION...WITH STORMS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. SFC RIDGE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
WILL FILTER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH RATHER PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS RETURNING AS
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
SWLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATER THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
ECMWF/GFS SIMILAR IN SWINGING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO
PLAINS...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN N OF INTERSTATE 40.
ECMWF/GFS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
KEEPING THE UPPER LOW MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...THUS
MAINTAINING MORE RIDGING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE OPTED TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM FOR NOW AND KEPT THE MID/LATE WEEK DRY
AND WARM FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 59 82 62 88 / 10 0 0 10
FSM 62 84 61 87 / 20 0 0 10
MLC 61 83 64 87 / 20 0 0 10
BVO 55 81 59 87 / 10 0 0 10
FYV 55 78 55 83 / 10 0 0 10
BYV 56 77 54 83 / 20 0 0 10
MKO 59 82 61 87 / 10 0 0 10
MIO 55 79 59 86 / 10 0 0 10
F10 59 82 64 87 / 10 0 0 10
HHW 64 85 64 88 / 30 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1221 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION... ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES
TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NVA WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT THEN AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE 10Z-16Z
TIMEFRAME. THE ACTIVITY DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY AND CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR LEVELS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF MIDDLE TN TODAY AND WILL BE REPLACE WITH A
WEAK SHORT TERM RIDGE. A DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE THE
TREND. BUT...ELEVATED MOISTURE STILL EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE CONTINUATION OF SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS WE CONTINUE TO WARM. HRRR SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT FOR
OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS BY 1 PM OR SO. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL REACH
1000-1500 J/KG. FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS
THE PLATEAU FROM 20 PERCENT TO 30 PERCENT.
OTW...TEMPS ALREADY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.
BNA IS OUTRUNNING LATEST GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES. WILL GO AHEAD AND
RAISE TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS.
SKY CONDITION LOOKS OK...SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR TODAY.
UPDATE COMING OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
COLD POCKET AT 500 MBAR HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DOWN INTERSTATE
24 TOWARDS CHATTANOOGA. MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PLATEAU
AS COLD POCKET EXTENDS UP INTO THAT AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. COLD POCKET
ASSOCATED WITH UPPER TROUGH THATS BEEN A SLOW MOVER LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...
THIS FORECAST UPDATE FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST VIS SATELLITE AND SFC
OBS SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM BASICALLY JASPER TX TO STEPHENVILLE
TX THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER TX SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP STRONG INSTABILITY TO
ITSELF AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. SPC RAP MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALSO
PUSHING OVER THE REGION. ALSO MAY SEE AN AREA OF ENHANCED JET
STREAM WINDS OVER THIS REGION AS WELL. THIS SHOULD FURTHER HELP
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. OVERALL THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF TX.
MESO MODELS OF HRRR/WRF-ARW/NMM AND WRF RUN BY TX TECH ALL SHOW A
LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO SE TX AROUND 01-04Z THIS EVENING. THE
12Z NAM ALSO HINTS AT THIS WITH THE OTHER SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING
HIGH QPF OVER C TX INTO SE TX INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION. GIVEN ALL
THIS AGREEMENT ADDED 70 POPS TO THE FORECAST WITH MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS FOR TONIGHT. LIKE TIMING OF REACHING NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 00Z-04Z AND THEN HOUSTON AREA AROUND
03Z-07Z. DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES...SQUALL LINE COULD
BE SLOWER IF IT TAKES MORE TIME TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH THE SQUALL LINE. WRF-ARW
REALLY SHOWS THIS STRUCTURE WELL AT 03Z TONIGHT. THINK DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN. SHOULD BOW ECHOES
FORM...HIGHER CHANCE FOR WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS DO SHOW SQUALL LINE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
HOUSTON AREA SO IMPACTS MAY BE LESS FARTHER SOUTH THAN BRAZOS
VALLEY INTO EAST TEXAS. STILL LOW CHANCES OF THE LINE MAKING IT TO
THE COAST BUT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF COLD POOL AND CAP
WEAKENING. AS SUCH HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS FOR TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE
COAST SOUTH OF I-10.
FRIDAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY ROTATE THROUGH WITH A BACK
DOOR FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. GFS/NAM/ECMWF HINT AT SOME
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH PASSING TROUGH AXIS. KEPT
SOME 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE COULD HAVE
REALLY WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH
RECOVERY. GFS DOES HINT AT PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8-2.0
INCHES SO WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TOMORROW...COULD
SEE STORMS DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LOW BUT AGAIN COULD SEE A WIND THREAT WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WHEN LOOKING AT GFS/ECMWF DATA
FOR THE EXTENDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL SAT BUT COULD GET SOME
ISO ACTIVITY SUN/MON. REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUESTIONABLE AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND ANY LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE. SUPPOSE
THAT SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP TO SUPPORT A STORM OR TWO BUT TOO
FAR OUT TO PINPOINT MESOSCALE FORECAST DETAILS.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS IN FOR THIS AFTN FOR SOME SITES AS ANOTHER
LINE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER SHORT-TERM MODELS STILL GOING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN FOR TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES A-
CROSS THE AREA TO THE EAST. 41
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING A SLOW UPTICK WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT
(IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW OUT WEST). AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY/BRIEFLY THRU
SAT. GRADIENT EXPECTED TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN LATE SAT WITH ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 91 74 91 74 / 70 30 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 91 74 91 74 / 50 30 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 88 79 88 79 / 30 30 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE ON SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE MESOSCALE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CELL THAT WAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A RECOVERY OF THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THIS PART
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA STILL INDICATES THAT
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS STILL OCCURRING. THIS SUBSIDENCE
APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING A BIT BASED ON LATEST RADAR DATA WHICH HAS
SHOWN A GENERAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR
SO. ANALYSIS OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS
POSITIONED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR BRECKENRIDGE TO JUST NORTH OF
WACO AND EAST TO PALESTINE. IT APPEARS TO BE RETREATING AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
WACO TOWARD PALESTINE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATES 2500-4000J/KG OF INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
WEAKENING INHIBITION. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGLY BACKED SURFACE
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN LOCALLY
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE SPREADING INTO WEST
TEXAS WHICH WILL SPREAD LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATOP THIS
HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL FORCING. ALL OF THIS BODES WELL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FROM COMANCHE TO WACO SOUTH TO
CAMERON. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A
VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT...SOME TO BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES NEAR THE
BOUNDARY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. INITIAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISCRETE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WITH
THE HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL AND MAY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE
SUPERCELLULAR CLUSTERS LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT HEADS
SOUTH...BECOMING A MORE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FOR THIS
EVENING...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
FARTHER NORTH...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AND
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
AND THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. WHILE THERE IS SOME
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE MAIN THREAT NORTH OF THE
RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURGE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
AREA BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
COULD ACT AS AN EFFECTIVE FRONT SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH RIDGING NOSING IN AT 500MB. WILL KEEP
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL STORM.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE FORECAST DRY INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. WARM MORNINGS AND HUMID
AFTERNOONS APPEAR LIKELY AND THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES THAT PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ONE OR MORE OF THESE COULD BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1228 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
CLEARING TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO STORMS IN THE METROPLEX. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STORM THREAT SHOULD REDUCED
CONSIDERABLY. AT WACO...SKIES ARE CLEARING AND THEY HAVE ALREADY
WARMED INTO THE 80S. HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON TSRA THERE AS
WELL...JUST A BIT LATER THAN METROPLEX.
TAFS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF FRONT...SINCE
WINDS CAN SHIFT WITH EACH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVES ACROSS.
TSRA COVERAGE IN METROPLEX ALSO PROBLEMATIC. HRRR MAY NOT BE
CATCHING THE CLEARING TO THE NW AND IT HAS FEW STORMS IN LATEST
RUN.TTU WRF DID NOT CATCH THE OUTFLOW THIS MORNING AND LIKELY HAS
TOO MANY STORMS. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 70 89 72 92 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 70 89 71 92 73 / 60 20 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 65 85 66 87 70 / 20 5 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 66 87 70 92 72 / 20 5 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 66 86 70 89 73 / 20 5 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 70 88 72 91 73 / 20 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 71 87 71 89 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 70 89 71 90 73 / 40 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 72 89 72 93 72 / 60 20 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 69 88 71 92 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.AVIATION...
CLEARING TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO STORMS IN THE METROPLEX. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STORM THREAT SHOULD REDUCED
CONSIDERABLY. AT WACO...SKIES ARE CLEARING AND THEY HAVE ALREADY
WARMED INTO THE 80S. HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON TSRA THERE AS
WELL...JUST A BIT LATER THAN METROPLEX.
TAFS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF FRONT...SINCE
WINDS CAN SHIFT WITH EACH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVES ACROSS.
TSRA COVERAGE IN METROPLEX ALSO PROBLEMATIC. HRRR MAY NOT BE
CATCHING THE CLEARING TO THE NW AND IT HAS FEW STORMS IN LATEST
RUN.TTU WRF DID NOT CATCH THE OUTFLOW THIS MORNING AND LIKELY HAS
TOO MANY STORMS. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH AND IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR GATESVILLE TO
WACO TO ATHENS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE A MAJOR PLAYER
CONCERNING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES DROP 5
TO 10 DEGREES AND WINDS ARE NORTHEAST. THIS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATES
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEATING AND
WIND RECOVERY FOR ANY CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS ACTUALLY STILL ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WILL HEAD SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY HANDLES THIS WELL...IT HAS DONE A
POOR JOB MODELING THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ITS
IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
SINCE THE GUIDANCE DOESNT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MESOSCALE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OR THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LOCATION OF BOTH
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
OZONA WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA BENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE MAIN TROF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH LATER TODAY...A WEAK
SURFACE TROF WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IT COULD
BEHAVE MORE LIKE A WARM FRONT GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING ACROSS THE
WEST. THIS BECOMES IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ARE RELATIVELY
UNDISTURBED FROM MORNING CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BACKED MORE THAN INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000 J/KG WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 45KTS WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO CONCUR WITH THIS AND
ACTUALLY INDICATES WHAT APPEARS TO BE DISCRETE CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPDATE WILL ADJUST POPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
RAISE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO UPDATE GRAPHICS ON THE WEB FOR THE
LATEST THINKING.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIZABLE AREA OF STRONG
TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AND JUNE
SUNSHINE HELPS PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AT 3 AM CDT...WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR DANGEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP IN THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A NEARLY
EAST-WEST LINEAR SYSTEM BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK...BUT DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERE
WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL UNTIL THEY EXIT THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE POPS TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL
FOCUS GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS. A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD TO STRONG TO
EXTREME LEVELS...ALSO ARGUES FOR LOWER POPS WEST AND HIGHER POPS
EAST TODAY. THE CAP WILL BE STRONGEST IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
35 AND SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY. IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...THE CAP IS
WEAKER AND THE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER. THESE FACTORS JUSTIFY THE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL END FRIDAY MORNING
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE...BUT
WARM AND MUGGY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT A WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY AFFECT TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THAT SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
09
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 71 87 72 92 / 40 50 10 5 10
WACO, TX 91 71 89 72 91 / 60 60 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 84 67 84 67 88 / 60 60 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 88 68 86 70 91 / 50 50 10 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 87 66 86 68 89 / 50 50 10 5 10
DALLAS, TX 90 71 87 72 91 / 40 50 10 5 10
TERRELL, TX 86 69 87 69 90 / 50 60 10 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 90 71 88 71 90 / 60 60 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 91 71 89 71 91 / 60 60 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 68 86 70 93 / 40 40 5 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
350 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW OFF THE FAR SOUTHWEST WA COAST. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES BUT DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT RISK OF TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A RANDOM STRIKE OR TWO. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM ANY STRONG TSTM THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL BE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND WILL BE OVER
EASTERN WA BY SUNRISE FRI. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE CASCADES
COULD HAVE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2.3 INCHES /BELOW THE HIGHEST
PEAKS/ DURING THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 5 PM PDT FRI. A FEW
LOWLAND INTERIOR SITES COULD RECEIVE NEAR AN INCH OF RAINFALL
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.
LOOK FOR THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FRI
AFTERNOON AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI EVENING. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. THE SURFACE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY AND WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WITHIN THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/. FRI WILL ALSO BE A
RATHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST TO
AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
THE MODELS SEEMED TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF ON SUNDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL SERVE TO KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED AND DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...
BEYOND SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINED LOW DUE TO
CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT AND LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE CHOSEN TO MAKE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE INHERITED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE S WA/OREGON BORDER
WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE INTERIOR PAC NW TONIGHT. LIGHT
TO MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BECOMING MOIST AT ALL LEVELS AND UNSTABLE THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE LIKELY THE NEXT 36 HOURS BUT THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
THEREFORE...THIS COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT PUTTING THUNDER IN THE
TAFS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR AND AMEND AS NEEDED DURING THIS
UNSTABLE PERIOD.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT MVFR AND LOCAL IFR DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
STEADY AND PERSISTENT.
KSEA...SHOWERS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AT
AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS ROUGHLY A 15
PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL NOT
INCLUDE THIS IN TAF AND MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT WESTERLY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL/E STRAIT THIS EVENING. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF WA TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY BEHIND THE LOW. WINDS COULD APPROACH
GALE FORCE BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS LIMITED TO 30 KT THIS EVENING IN THE
CENTRAL/E STRAIT. MODELS SHOW A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH FRIDAY WHICH
COULD PRODUCE GALES SO A WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/E STRAIT
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT WINDS COULD
DEVELOP OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE WA COAST AND INTERIOR WATERS ON
FRIDAY AS WELL. DTM
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 11 AM FRI FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRI MORNING THROUGH FRI EVENING FOR
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
252 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will track into the region this
evening bringing a good chance of thunderstorms some of which
could be strong with gusty winds and large hail. The low will
remain over the region through the weekend resulting in cool and
unsettled weather conditions. High pressure will return into the
region on Tuesday and bring drying conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Strong upper level low continues to slowly meander
toward the Washington coast as of 2pm with strong upper level
difluence noted ahead of it. This difluence is associated with
strong upper level southwesterly jet which extended from the SW
corner of Oregon and into SE Washington. Meanwhile the offshore
trough will take on a slightly negative tilt as a shortwave rounds
the base. These mechanisms will provide the lift necessary for
thunderstorms...while the instability is already present. Thus far
the greatest potential instability was located near the Cascades
where MUCAPE values have surged into 1000-1500 j/kg range with
little if any inhibition. Thunderstorms have been growing in
number but thus far have been restricted to the western portions
of Chelan and Okanogan counties. 0-6 km shear values in these
areas range from 25-35 kts which isn`t terrific but could be
sufficient for an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm with the
main threat being moderate sized hail. An area of greater concern
lies over the SE corner of Washington and the southern half of the
Idaho Panhandle. This location has a much more profound
instability axis as well as shear values topping out between 50-60
kts. Convection has already begun to grow over the NE corner of
Oregon and should drift into SE Washington and the Panhandle
during the early evening as the low moves inland. The HRRR has
consistently forecast this feature to track through the SE corner
of our CWA so confidence is growing. Whether or not the
thunderstorms in this area become severe isn`t a certainty...but
the max composite reflectivity product has consistently depicted a
bow-like structure which would be conducive for strong winds. The
threat for any strong/severe storms should be minimal after the
late evening hours as we lose any impacts from surface heating. As
the low tracks east of the Cascades during the evening...we will
see an intrusion of drier air move into the southern Cascades and
into the Columbia Basin behind a cold front. This should also put
an end to the convective chances in these locations...with the
possibility of this moving as far east as the Spokane area and
Washington Palouse. For the overnight hours...we should see most
of the precipitation chances focused around the northern and
eastern periphery of the upper level low. This generally
encompasses the western Cascades through the northern Washington
mountains and into the northern Idaho Panhandle. Potential
instability numbers suggest lightning could still be possible from
the Okanogan Highlands to the northern tip of the Panhandle. fx
Friday and Friday night: The cold upper level low pressure system
will pass over SE WA and over the Central Panhandle during the
day. This is where the coldest temps aloft and the steepest mid
level lapse rates will reside. As such, the southeastern portion
of the forecast area will see the best chance for thunderstorms
from the afternoon into the evening. We will also be dealing with
some wrap around moisture rotating in over the Northern Panhandle
and across much of the western half of the forecast area. Showers
will also develop along this TROWAL (TRough Of Warm Air Aloft)
like feature through this period as well. This will result in
plenty of cloud cover and higher than average precip chances
across the region. In fact, most areas will see a good chance for
some rain either in the afternoon or overnight on Friday as the
TROWAL shifts eastward with time along the backside of the low.
Cloudy skies under the low on Friday will result in dramatically
lower temps compared to this afternoon. Expect high temps only to
get up into the 60s for most locations in the afternoon.
Saturday through Sunday evening: The flow pattern over the region
will transition to out of the northwest as the low exits the
area. Showers will linger primarily across the eastern third of
the forecast area on Saturday. Temperatures will rebound closer to
normal Saturday afternoon.
The next weather feature of note will be a cold front passage on
Sunday. There is some uncertainty with the strength and moisture
content with this wave. The latest 18Z NAM just came in with Pwats
up around 0.80 inches compared to just 0.50 to 0.60 inches off of
the 12Z GFS run. The current forecast is more reflective of the
drier GFS with the best chances of showers across the northern
mtns. If subsequent model runs continue to show a stronger and
wetter wave like the newest NAM run, then the forecast will need
to be adjusted wetter and have increased coverage further south
and into the basin. Winds do not appear to be that much of a
concern across the region with this front, but we will continue to
see a fairly tight cross Cascade gradient. This will would keep
winds breezy through the Cascade gaps and out into the western
basin. /SVH
Sunday night through Thursday: Big differences right off the bat
for the latter portion of the extended forecast. While the GFS
would maintain a northwest flow on Monday, and then build a weak
ridge in for the middle of the week. This solution is also
supported by others. On the other hand, other model solutions
would argue for another more organized low pressure system moving
right over top of the Inland Northwest, which would bring much
cooler and unsettled conditions. With emphasis this shift on the
shorter terms, this forecast will go with the status quo, which is
more in line with the more consistent solutions. This will give
slowly warming temperatures each day, with precipitation chances
mainly confined to the higher elevations. ty
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A vigorous low pressure system currently off the WA
Coast will swing inland over the next 24 hours. This will trigger
a chance of showers and thunderstorms for all forecast sites.Looks
like the threat will begin near MWH and EAT between 21-00z and end
quickly thereafter. For the other locations...we should see
thunder develop over NE Oregon and quickly head into the LWS/PUW
area. HRRR model shows the greatest threat will be between 00-06z.
GEG/SFF/COE will be the last locations threatened. We have put the
threat beginning around 00z...but based on model trends that may
be too quick. Any storms which form could produce erratic wind
gusts with speeds approaching 40 mph. The best chances for that
would be for PUW/LWS. After 06z...the threat should wane for all
locations with VFR conditions expected through remainder of
forecast. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 49 62 48 69 48 68 / 30 70 70 20 10 20
Coeur d`Alene 48 61 47 66 46 66 / 30 70 70 40 20 30
Pullman 46 60 45 66 44 66 / 50 70 70 30 10 20
Lewiston 54 67 51 75 51 73 / 50 70 70 30 10 20
Colville 50 63 48 71 48 67 / 60 80 80 30 20 30
Sandpoint 49 60 46 62 44 63 / 60 80 80 60 20 30
Kellogg 48 58 45 61 46 63 / 60 70 80 80 20 30
Moses Lake 53 71 51 78 52 77 / 20 50 30 0 0 10
Wenatchee 54 70 55 76 56 75 / 20 50 30 10 0 10
Omak 52 69 51 78 50 74 / 60 60 40 10 10 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
249 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR THE
WASHINGTON OREGON BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW IS AROUND 80 MILES OFF OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FIRST BAND OF RAIN IS PUSHING ONSHORE AND JUST MAKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE LIGHTNING NETWORK HAS
DETECTED SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FAR NORTH...ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND JUST NORTH OF WASHINGTON STATE...SUGGESTING THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW AS EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
3 AND 7 PM WHEN THE LOW...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT...MOVES OVER LAND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING SHOWING SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVER THE
CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO...THEN SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE INSTABILITY AND
STRENGTHEN THE CHANCE FOR TOWERING CUMULUS OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE JUST
STARTING TO SPROUT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR.
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGE IS PRODUCING GUSTY WEST
WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HIGHER CASCADES THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
DIGS SOUTH ACROSS NW OREGON. THEREFORE COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER...THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES WILL RESULT IN DEEP MARINE SURGES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER...WEAKER SYSTEM MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
SUNDAY. HARTLEY
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS STILL VARY IN THE LONG TERM...BUT
GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP MARINE
LAYER SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD MONDAY AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A FEW
DEGREES. HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE FAR NE PACIFIC. THE VARYING
MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND WHETHER NW OREGON WILL
BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE OR THE LOW LATE NEXT WEEK. NONE OF
THE SOLUTIONS SHOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK...LEAVING TEMPERATURES AS THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.
HARTLEY
&&
.AVIATION...FRONT MOVING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT VFR CIGS WITH OCCASION MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
IFR CIG AND VIS IN HEAVY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
03Z. ALONG THE COAST CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED SOME TO GIVE MOSTLY VFR
CIGS...BUT EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MORE SHOWERS TO RETURN AS THE
SECONDARY FRONT MOVES IN ALONG THE COAST 22Z-01Z. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA AND GRADIENTS SHIFT WESTERLY EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS AND CONTINUED SHOWERS ALL AREAS AFT 06Z. SCHNEIDER
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS...40 PERCENT OF MVFR
CIG IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM 22Z-
03Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 06Z. SCHNEIDER
&&
.MARINE...1011MB SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF ASTORIA OREGON AT
22Z WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY INLAND THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT INLAND EARLY TONIGHT AS
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 03Z WITH THE
COLDEST AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID EVENING WHEN THE SECONDARY FRONT
PASSES THE COAST. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD NOT
BE QUITE AS STRONG.
SWELL BEING GENERATED FROM THIS LOW AS IT PASSED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BEGIN REACHING THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON
COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 10 FEET TOMORROW. HOWEVER WITH A STRONG TIDAL CYCLE THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WILL BE PRETTY ROUGH DURING THE EBBS. SCHNEIDER
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
7 AM PDT FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM TO
6 PM PDT FRIDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1213 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will track into the region this
afternoon and evening bringing a good chance of thunderstorms
some of which could be strong with gusty winds and large hail.
The low will remain over the region through the weekend resulting
in cool and unsettled weather conditions. High pressure will
return into the region on Tuesday and bring drying conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Strong upper level low continues to drift closer
to the Washington coast as of 11am. Meanwhile a weak upper level
front was delivering a blanket of high and mid level clouds to
the eastern quarter of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. This
latter feature should move out of the forecast area by early
afternoon...which will bring a temporary clearing and likely a
resulting destabiliztion of the atmosphere.This destabilization
has already taken place in the Cascades and Okanogan Highlands and
we were beginning to see some cumulus development. Nothing is deep
enough for showers as of yet...but that will change as the low
moves closer and gives the potentially unstable air mass a needed
boost. The HRRR model has been rather insistent on developing
showers and thunderstorms first near the Cascades...Waterville
Plateau...and north Cascades by early afternoon. This threat will
then spread north and east into the the remaining northern
washington mountains and north Idaho Panhandle during the
remainder of the afternoon as a shortwave disturbance moves in
from the southwest. Model CAPE values are still rather impressive
and suggest a small chance of strong thunderstorms especially for
the Okanogan Highlands...Waterville Plateau...Okanogan Valley and
perhaps the northern Cascades. The HRRR is really downplaying the
threat south and west of these locations based on an incoming dry
slot. That`s not to say a thunderstorm would be impossible over
the Columbia Basin and Wenatchee area...but the odds are not
terrific. These locations will see a much better chance of gusty
winds to 25-30 mph and fairly dry relative humidity values.
Farther to the east and south...the HRRR is consistently
developing a big cluster of thunderstorms over NE Oregon and
pushing those into the Blues...Lewiston...southern Palouse and
southern Shoshone County after 4pm. Model stability indices and
the large scale forcing of the approaching shortwave suggest this
is the location which will be most prone to severe weather. The
main threat will be the possibility of strong wind gusts and large
hail. For the Spokane area...it looks like the threat of thunder
could hold off until the mid to late evening.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A vigorous low pressure system currently off the WA
Coast will swing inland over the next 24 hours. This will trigger
a chance of showers and thunderstorms for all forecast sites.Looks
like the threat will begin near MWH and EAT between 21-00z and end
quickly thereafter. For the other locations...we should see
thunder develop over NE Oregon and quickly head into the LWS/PUW
area. HRRR model shows the greatest threat will be between 00-06z.
GEG/SFF/COE will be the last locations threatened. We have put the
threat beginning around 00z...but based on model trends that may
be too quick. Any storms which form could produce erratic wind
gusts with speeds approaching 40 mph. The best chances for that
would be for PUW/LWS. After 06z...the threat should wane for all
locations with VFR conditions expected through remainder of
forecast. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 80 49 63 44 66 47 / 20 40 60 70 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 80 48 62 44 64 46 / 20 50 60 70 40 20
Pullman 78 45 61 42 64 44 / 20 50 60 60 30 10
Lewiston 86 52 69 47 72 50 / 30 60 60 60 30 10
Colville 80 47 65 47 68 47 / 40 80 60 70 30 20
Sandpoint 78 47 61 46 61 45 / 30 70 60 70 60 20
Kellogg 78 47 59 43 61 46 / 40 50 70 80 80 20
Moses Lake 82 52 73 49 76 51 / 20 50 40 20 0 0
Wenatchee 79 55 71 53 74 54 / 30 50 40 10 10 0
Omak 80 52 69 49 74 47 / 30 70 60 30 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
AT 3 PM...A 990 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN ANS THEN SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A
BROKEN DECK OF INSTABILITY CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN LAYER
OF 850 TO 800 MB MOISTURE AND 10 C/KM LAPSE RATES. THESE STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO BRINGING DOWN WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT...THE RAP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BROKEN DECK OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
THROUGH 13.03Z...AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 13.03Z AND 13.06Z. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST UP TO 25 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
DEVELOPS.
FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AS DIUNRAL HEATING TAKES PLACE...900 TO
850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 10 C/KM. THIS WILL MIX
DOWN DRIER AIR MUCH ALOFT. THE AWIPS MIX TOOL SUGGEST THAT DEW
POINTS WILL IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...
AND AROUND 40 WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS 5 TO 10
DEGREE LOWER THAN THE MOS. THIS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. UNLIKE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINDS
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY LESS 7 MPH UP TO 800 MB...SO NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 12.12Z ARW GENERATES SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS IN THIS
MODELS ARE RUNNING NEARLY 10 DEGREES TOO HIGH. THIS IS RESULTING
IN TOO HIGH OF CAPES. IN ADDITION...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY.
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE STRONGEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT
WENT DRY DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN KEPT A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE NORTHWEST OF A NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN TO OELWEIN IOWA LINE.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN MOVE EAST
AS THE LOW LEVEL JETS VEERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 3.5 TO 4 KM RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
UP TO 1.8 INCHES...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN. WHILE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE INHIBITED BY THE LACK OF 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR...AND ML CAPES
LESS THAN 250 J/KG.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
POSITION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW...SO JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
MORNING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS LOW AND THE
APPROACHING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP THE
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES IN
WITH THE GUSTS DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THEN SUSTAINED
SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 10 KNOTS BEFORE 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL PLACE BEHIND THE LOW AND THE WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. THESE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE
BEST MOISTURE MOVES PAST THE REGION AND AS COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS. CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04