Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/11/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

901 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2014

.Synopsis...
Hot weather will continue across the region today with more
significant cooling expected to hold off until mid-week. Dry
conditions along with periods of locally breezy north winds will
result in critical fire danger. A slight chance of late day
thunderstorms will be possible over the Coast Range today, then in
the Sierra Nevada south of Lake Tahoe on Tuesday.

.Discussion...
High pressure will bring another day of heat today, even hotter
than what we saw on Sunday. Current Valley forecast highs are
generally 2 to 4 degrees above the records for the date, so it is
likely we will see some daily records fall this afternoon.

North winds and very low humidity continue to bring critical fire
conditions to the northern and the western central Sacramento
Valley as well as adjacent foothills. The northeast foothills and
far northern Sierra will see decreasing fire danger as winds drop
off this morning so the Red Flag will end there at 11 am. The
remaining areas will continue in a Red Flag until 5 pm Tuesday as
northerly winds and dry conditions remain an issue.

A weak upper low will pass to the south later this afternoon.
Moisture may be just enough when coupled with instability from
daytime heating to produce a few afternoon showers/thunderstorms
over the Coastal Mountains west of Red Bluff, affecting the area
around Saddle Camp. Sierra shower/thunderstorm activity should be
generally from Yosemite NP southward. HRRR mesoscale model is
showing very little in the way of convection so far so not
expecting much. will Most of interior northern California will
remain dry.

Forecast looks on track, no updates necessary. EK

.Previous Discussion...Strong high pressure remains over NorCal
while a weak low is developing off the coast of central
California. Skies are clear across the region early this morning
and coastal stratus extends mainly from Monterey Bay southward.
Temperatures across the area are a little warmer in most areas and
range from the mid 60s to mid 70s through much of the valley while
the thermal belt areas are in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Hot weather will continue today. Triple digit heat is expected
across the valley again with highs ranging from 102 to 108. Record
highs will be within reach across much of the region.

Periods of locally breezy north winds are expected again today,
especially over the northern Sacramento Valley where tighter
surface pressure gradients will linger. Hot temperatures, breezy
winds, and dry conditions will work together to continue critical
fire danger. The fire danger will remain elevated through at least
Tuesday.

An upper level low will approach the Central California coast
later today and may bring enough moisture and instability for a
few thunderstorms over the Coast Range north of Lake County.
Appears better lift with the low will be south of the area, so
deep convection will likely depend on strong daytime heating to
initiate.

A modest cooling trend will begin on Tuesday as a broad upper
trough moves over the West Coast. The delta and southern
Sacramento Valley may begin to see a gradual return of the delta
breeze. More significant cooling will wait until mid- week as a
deeper trough moves into the PacNW.

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

No significant changes to extended forecast. Models continue to
show a broad trough over NorCal into Wednesday with highs
several degrees above normal. A stronger shortwave trough will
move through the Pacific Northwest Thursday into Friday.
California will likely stay dry as moisture and lift remain well
to our north. However, temperatures will continue to cool to more
seasonal levels late next week as onshore flow strengthens.

Dang/jbb

.Aviation...

Generally VFR with very isolated thunderstorm activity this
afternoon over the Coastal Range. North winds gusting to 20 kt
over the northern Sacramento Valley today, generally light winds
5-10 kt elsewhere. EK

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
red flag warning until 11 am pdt this morning northeast
foothills/sacramento valley...western plumas county/lassen park.

red flag warning until 5 pm pdt tuesday central sacramento
valley...clear lake/southern lake county...mountains
southwestern shasta county to northern lake county...northern
sacramento valley...shasta lake area / northern shasta county.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

1137 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SHIFTED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND IT IS BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND
FRONT RANGE. THESE WILL END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR SPREADS
SOUTHEAST. RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
PAST MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS THE LIFT FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL ON
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MOST OF
THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...AS
WARM AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014

MODELS HAVE WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT
STAYS WEAK AND IS ZONAL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...THAT PUSHES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS WEAK DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY IS PROGGED. DOWNWARD MOTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS POINT TO NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SURGE OF
COOLER AIR AND UPSLOPE FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY SPARSE MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID
DAY TUESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED
IN THE 30S F TO MID 40S F FOR THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THERE ARE SOME MID
40S F TO MID 50S F PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS NO CAPE
PROGGED OVER THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS VERY WEAK CAPE
AROUND LATE DAY TUESDAY. CAPE IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. THERE IS NO MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS MONDAY EVENING...THEN A TAD OF
MEASURABLE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE DAY TUESDAY. FOR
LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BIT MORE. FOR POPS...NONE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. SOME MINOR HIGH COUNTRY POPS LATE
DAY TUESDAY...THEN NOTHING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH
20-40% POPS LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS WARM UP 4-10 C FROM MONDAY`S HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-2 C COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE UPPER RIDGING THURSDAY
...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY...ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SATURDAY...THEN ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS PRETTY
SPARSE MUCH OF THE TIME...EVEN WITH THE TROUGH SATURDAY. THE HOT
DAY IS FRIDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014

AS THE RUC AND HRRR HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING...THERE IS
A SLIGHT REBUILDING TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN
FROM THE SYSTEM OUT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. HAVE ADDED A FEW
HOURS OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ADDED IN SOME VCSH TO KAPA...ALTHOUGH
KDEN MAY SEE IT AS WELL. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AFTER
07Z WITH LITTLE TO ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT
BELIEVE ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL ENTER THE AREA TO PREVENT IT FROM
HAPPENING...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014

RIVER LEVELS HAVE BEEN ON A VERY SLOW DOWNWARD TREND FOR THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS BUT STILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CAUSE SOME RISES ON STREAMS
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. WILL KEEP ADVISORIES IN SUMMIT AND
GRAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS ON THE SOUTH PLATTE. WILL ALSO KEEP THE
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CACHE LA POUDRE IN THE GREELEY AREA.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

505 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST TODAY...AND SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
RETURN SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS TRACKING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THEY
ACCOMPANY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION NOTED...ALONG WITH H8 WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL...WITH PERHAPS SOME PEEKS OF SUN THIS
AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MORNING SHOWERS FROM NYC WEST
MOVING EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF CT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS TO OVERCOME...BUT LAPS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MID LEVEL
SATURATION OCCURRING...AND HRRR ALONG WITH 4 KM SPC WRF SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY TRACKS AN AREA OF SHOWERS EAST. AS SUCH...WILL RAISE
POPS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES TODAY. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR LIKELY OR EVEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

IN GENERAL...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER DUE TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAN TOWARD COOLER MET NUMBERS
TODAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND ONSHORE FLOW. IN FACT...MET NUMBERS MAY PERFORM BETTER THAN A
MOS BLEND TODAY...BUT ANY SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE...THUS
DO NOT WANT TO DISCOUNT THE MAV NUMBERS ALTOGETHER.

THERE IS A BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY
DUE A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WIND AND WIND WAVE. HAVE FORECASTED
MODERATE DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MODERATE RIPS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH SEVERAL MODERATE RIP REPORTS NOTED.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS THE AREA...SETTLING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY.

INCREASING MOISTURE...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE
SW/W FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT
LIKELY OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY PER SOUNDINGS.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
TONIGHT...AND WILL BE INCLUDED IN GRIDDED DATABASE.

FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND...WITH 60S TONIGHT AND 70S...TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY
AWAY FROM THE SHORE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TO START THE PERIOD WILL DRIVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
ACROSS TUE NIGHT. CHANCE POP WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY FOR INLAND SECTIONS AND IN THE EVENING. TEMPS ON WED SHOULD
BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEG COOLER THAN THOSE OF TUE. UPSLOPE E-SE FLOW
AND PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT TO FAR NW SECTIONS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC ON WED AS WELL. MEANWHILE...ENOUGH
DRY AIR SHOULD WORK IN FROM NEW ENGLAND TO LEAD TO SOME CLEARING
ACROSS CT FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT THU INTO THU NIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDER. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH LATE THU NIGHT OR
FRI MORNING...THEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY AND A
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW...
SHOULD SEE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST.

DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY LATER SAT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.

TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT BELOW AVG WED-THU IN THE CANADIAN MARITIME AIR MASS.

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING IN THE
REGION.

FIRST ROUND OF PCPN MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. GENERALLY
EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 11-13Z...WITH ON/OFF RAIN THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING A BREAK AFTR FIRST
ROUND...WITH PSBL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS POPPING UP FOR THE AFTN. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF TSTM RIGHT NOW SO WILL NOT INCLUDE. TIMING OF TEMPO
GROUP MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED +/- 1-2 HOURS.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BACK TO SE FLOW AFTR 12Z. GENERALLY
EXPECTING LESS THAN 10 KTS.

CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP 2500-3000 FT BY LATER MORNING...ESP WITH ANY
PCPN. BETTER CHC FOR LOWER CIGS DOWN TO BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR AFTR
03Z TONIGHT. FOG PSBL AS WELL...DROPPING VIS DOWN TO 2-4SM.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN COULD BE MORE PERIODIC IN NATURE
TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF TSTM THIS AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MOD CONFIDENCE ON PCPN FOR THIS AFTN.
MAY OCCUR 1-2 HOURS EARLIER. MOD CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AFTR 12Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MOD CONFIDENCE ON PCPN FOR THIS AFTN.
MAY OCCUR 1-2 HOURS EARLIER.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN COULD BE MORE PERIODIC IN NATURE
TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF TSTM THIS AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN COULD BE MORE PERIODIC IN NATURE
TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF TSTM THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE ON PCPN THIS MORNING...LOW
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN FOR THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS.

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU TODAY. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT HOWEVER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE
TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS LIGHTEN TUESDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS.

GENERALLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND OR UP TO 1/3 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TODAY.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ON FRI.
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS POSSIBLY
NEARING 2 INCHES PER 00Z ECMWF...AND STORMS COULD BE SLOW
MOVING/TRAINING GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. WILL
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR NYC METRO NORTH/WEST.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

356 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014