Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/10/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1105 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WITH A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC FORECAST ALREADY ON THE BOOKS...WILL NOT
BE MAKING ANY CHANGES AT THIS POINT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
MOVING OVER WESTERN COLORADO AT THE PRESENT TIME...KICKING OFF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES ON ITS LEADING
EDGE. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS
THE PLAINS...MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. CLOUD
COVER HAS REDUCED SOLAR HEATING SOMEWHAT UP TO THIS POINT...BUT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING OVER
PARK...TELLER AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES THAT WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
HEATING ON THE PALMER DIVIDE...ENHANCING THERMAL GRADIENTS TO THE
NORTH OF THAT AREA. SPC HAS US IN UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SEEMS WARRENTED DUE TO DYNAMICS ALOFT AND
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THE HRRR AND RUC
MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BACK EDGE TO ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVING OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS AND ONTO THE PLAINS BETWEEN 8 PM AND
10 PM THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY...BUT
UNTIL THEN IT COULD BE A QUITE ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 120 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
11-3.9 SATELLITE LOW CLOUD IMAGERY SHOWING A CLEARING OF THE STRATUS
DECK OVER THE DENVER AREA AND POINTS SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS COUNTY.
GIVEN THE DENVER CYCLONE COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH SECTIONS OF DENVER. DURING THE MORNING HOURS
LOW CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
TROF.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER IDAHO AND NEVADA
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS COLORADO. THIS TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF UPWARD
ASCENT AS NOTED ON QG LAYERED PRODUCTS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INITIATE CONVERGENCE WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
NAM/RAP SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1000-1500J/KG OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. GIVEN MODERATE UPWARD ASCENT COULD BE SOME
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT A TORNADO
AS WELL ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
IT WILL BE DRY...STABLE AND COOLER ON MONDAY...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF COLORADO IN THE MORNING...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL TUESDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
RIDGE AXIS WL GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS MONTANA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS...AS LOW LEVEL
ELY WINDS ADVECT IT INTO THE CWFA. FOR NOW SLGT CHANCE WILL
SUFFICE BUT THIS WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE...ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BUT WILL LEAVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SETTLED OVER NERN CO IN ITS WAKE. A WEAK SYSTEM
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD MOVE ACROSS NRN COLORADO
IN THE AFTN/EVENING PERIOD. AS A RESULT...COULD AGAIN SEE A ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. A DRIER WSWLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OVERALL WL GO WITH SLGT CHANCE OF TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVNG
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER SOME MILD COOLING ON
THURSDAY..TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WILL CARRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA TAFS FROM 19Z THROUGH
ABOUT 02Z. WIND FIELD OVER DENVER AREA IS COMPLICATED WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE AIRPORT AND NORTHWESTERLIES CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS. LOOKS LIKE KDEN SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
UNTIL OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS PUSHES THINGS
MORE TO THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 120 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD SHOW SOME SMALL RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS. STORMS
WILL BE MOVING WITH MODEST STEERING FLOWS. MODEL QPF SHOWING
.25-.50 OF AN INCH OVER FRONT RANGE AND ADJ PLAINS WITH UPWARDS OF
AN INCH OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY CONTINUE TO MODERATE THE
SNOWMELT IN THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO HAVE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT...KEEPING THE RUNOFF IN CHECK. WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...THE SNOWMELT WILL LIKELY AGAIN
INCREASE.
CURRENT ADVISORIES AND THE FLOOD WARNING IN GREELEY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...COOPER/ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS DEVELOPING
OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. SHARP CLEARING UNDERWAY ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH ON BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD FILL
BACK IN A BIT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND QUICK JUMP IN SFC TEMPS.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING NEW CU FIELDS POPPING OVER
THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST UTAH...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SHORTWV TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH DRIVING A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED AT LOWER VALLEY
SENSORS IN EASTERN UTAH...INCLUDING CANYONLANDS AIRPORT NORTH OF
MOAB. THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AT A FEW SITES. HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO FIT THIS
LINE...WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
COOL FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAKES IT AN ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT IS A
SHORT WAVE THAT DESIRES A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION AS IT DIGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE. NOT MUCH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE...BUT A
DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AS HUMIDITY SURGES
HIGHER. AIR MASS BECOMES CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION KEEPING LAPSE RATES STEEP. AFTERNOON
CAPE VALUES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RANGE BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG...WITH THE RAP MODEL SHOWING A POCKET OF 1000+ J/KG FOR NW
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DESERT
VALLEYS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND THEREFORE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
IS HIGH. HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF RECEIVING
SOME RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS GENERATING BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS...MOST LIKELY TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE.
SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE SRN VALLEYS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SPEED SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST REACHES 30-35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL
BE COMMON FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CORTEZ TO DURANGO WITH WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH. THIS IS A COMBINATION OF A DEEP MIXED
LAYER...APPROACHING JET MAXIMA...LOCATION OF FRONT...AND THE
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT THAT CONTRIBUTES TO THE STRONG WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF AN ISOLATED STORM REACHES SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
TONIGHT THE FLOW VEERS FROM NW TO NORTH WHILE MOISTURE QUICKLY
ERODES. EVENING SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE EXPECTED
TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS...AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW AVERAGE. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE THE
LEAST WARM DAY OF THE NEW WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEATING. INCREASED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSHOWERS.
A DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL THREATEN MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS FOR MOST
VALLEYS. ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY JUNE WEATHER REMAINS THE MAIN
THEME. A SHORT WAVE THE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS, AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
A STRONG DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WILL RESULT
IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MARCH EAST ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DIVIDE AFTER 21Z...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THIS LINE UNTIL 02Z
THIS EVENING. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH WITH SMALL HAIL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED AT TIMES AS THE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AFTER 02Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
UPDATE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES TODAY WITH THE ADDITION
OF ZONE 291 TO THE RED FLAG WARNINGS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER A WEEK OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WARRANT THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS TODAY...COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.
THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING AND PASSING VIRGA/SHOWERS WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THIS WARM REGIME AND DRY FUELS WILL PRODUCE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR COLORADO ZONE 207 BELOW 9500 FEET AND FOR
COLORADO ZONE 203 BELOW 6000 FEET.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY. RIDGING WILL BRING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE MORE WIND AND DRY
LIGHTNING THAN RAIN AND THUS MAY BE A ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
RIVER AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS THE MOUNTAIN
SNOWPACK MELTS UNDER PERSISTENT WARM TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST
FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON BASIN
IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. AS A RESULT...A NUMBER OF FLOOD ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO
...AND NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ203-207-291.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ021-022.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...JOE/TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
922 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SHORTWV TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH DRIVING A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED AT LOWER VALLEY
SENSORS IN EASTERN UTAH...INCLUDING CANYONLANDS AIRPORT NORTH OF
MOAB. THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AT A FEW SITES. HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO FIT THIS
LINE...WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
COOL FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAKES IT AN ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT IS A
SHORT WAVE THAT DESIRES A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION AS IT DIGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE. NOT MUCH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE...BUT A
DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AS HUMIDITY SURGES
HIGHER. AIR MASS BECOMES CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION KEEPING LAPSE RATES STEEP. AFTERNOON
CAPE VALUES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RANGE BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG...WITH THE RAP MODEL SHOWING A POCKET OF 1000+ J/KG FOR NW
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DESERT
VALLEYS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND THEREFORE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
IS HIGH. HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF RECEIVING
SOME RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS GENERATING BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS...MOST LIKELY TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE.
SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE SRN VALLEYS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SPEED SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST REACHES 30-35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL
BE COMMON FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CORTEZ TO DURANGO WITH WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH. THIS IS A COMBINATION OF A DEEP MIXED
LAYER...APPROACHING JET MAXIMA...LOCATION OF FRONT...AND THE
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT THAT CONTRIBUTES TO THE STRONG WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF AN ISOLATED STORM REACHES SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
TONIGHT THE FLOW VEERS FROM NW TO NORTH WHILE MOISTURE QUICKLY
ERODES. EVENING SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE EXPECTED
TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS...AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW AVERAGE. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE THE
LEAST WARM DAY OF THE NEW WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEATING. INCREASED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSHOWERS.
A DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL THREATEN MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS FOR MOST
VALLEYS. ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY JUNE WEATHER REMAINS THE MAIN
THEME. A SHORT WAVE THE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS, AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...FAVORING WESTERN COLORADO AFTER 16Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 30-40 KTS WILL BE COMMON FROM ANY NEARBY STORMS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DESERT TAF SITES. FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...PASSING STORMS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF +SHRAGS WITH LOWER CIGS. STORMS WILL
BE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z. BENIGN WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
UPDATE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES TODAY WITH THE ADDITION
OF ZONE 291 TO THE RED FLAG WARNINGS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER A WEEK OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WARRANT THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS TODAY...COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.
THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING AND PASSING VIRGA/SHOWERS WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THIS WARM REGIME AND DRY FUELS WILL PRODUCE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR COLORADO ZONE 207 BELOW 9500 FEET AND FOR
COLORADO ZONE 203 BELOW 6000 FEET.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY. RIDGING WILL BRING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE MORE WIND AND DRY
LIGHTNING THAN RAIN AND THUS MAY BE A ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
RIVER AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS THE MOUNTAIN
SNOWPACK MELTS UNDER PERSISTENT WARM TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST
FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON BASIN
IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. AS A RESULT...A NUMBER OF FLOOD ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO
...AND NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ203-207-291.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ021-022.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JOE/TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
COOL FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAKES IT AN ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT IS A
SHORT WAVE THAT DESIRES A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION AS IT DIGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE. NOT MUCH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE...BUT A
DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AS HUMIDITY SURGES
HIGHER. AIR MASS BECOMES CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION KEEPING LAPSE RATES STEEP. AFTERNOON
CAPE VALUES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RANGE BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG...WITH THE RAP MODEL SHOWING A POCKET OF 1000+ J/KG FOR NW
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DESERT
VALLEYS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND THEREFORE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
IS HIGH. HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF RECEIVING
SOME RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS GENERATING BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS...MOST LIKELY TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE.
SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE SRN VALLEYS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SPEED SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST REACHES 30-35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL
BE COMMON FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CORTEZ TO DURANGO WITH WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH. THIS IS A COMBINATION OF A DEEP MIXED
LAYER...APPROACHING JET MAXIMA...LOCATION OF FRONT...AND THE
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT THAT CONTRIBUTES TO THE STRONG WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF AN ISOLATED STORM REACHES SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
TONIGHT THE FLOW VEERS FROM NW TO NORTH WHILE MOISTURE QUICKLY
ERODES. EVENING SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE EXPECTED
TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS...AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW AVERAGE. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE THE
LEAST WARM DAY OF THE NEW WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEATING. INCREASED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSHOWERS.
A DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL THREATEN MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS FOR MOST
VALLEYS. ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY JUNE WEATHER REMAINS THE MAIN
THEME. A SHORT WAVE THE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS, AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...FAVORING WESTERN COLORADO AFTER 16Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 30-40 KTS WILL BE COMMON FROM ANY NEARBY STORMS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DESERT TAF SITES. FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...PASSING STORMS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF +SHRAGS WITH LOWER CIGS. STORMS WILL
BE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z. BENIGN WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
UPDATE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES TODAY WITH THE ADDITION
OF ZONE 291 TO THE RED FLAG WARNINGS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER A WEEK OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WARRANT THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS TODAY...COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.
THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING AND PASSING VIRGA/SHOWERS WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THIS WARM REGIME AND DRY FUELS WILL PRODUCE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR COLORADO ZONE 207 BELOW 9500 FEET AND FOR
COLORADO ZONE 203 BELOW 6000 FEET.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY. RIDGING WILL BRING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE MORE WIND AND DRY
LIGHTNING THAN RAIN AND THUS MAY BE A ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
RIVER AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS THE MOUNTAIN
SNOWPACK MELTS UNDER PERSISTENT WARM TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST
FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON BASIN
IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. AS A RESULT...A NUMBER OF FLOOD ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO
...AND NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ203-207-291.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ021-022.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JOE/TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH WEAK THERMAL FORCING AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND
COASTAL CT AND EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL NJ MAY PROVIDE SOME LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...BUT THERE
ARE NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO HANG YOUR HAT ON FOR ANOTHER
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EPISODE. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
DURING THE WARM SEASON...OFTEN SUBTLE FEATURES ARE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE NECESSARY LIFT. A BIG LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH IS THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY. 00Z HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE ISOLD IDEA
THROUGH 7-8Z...WITH SCT TO NUMRS SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO THE S AND
W OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THERE IS
SOME SUPPORT OF THIS FROM THE WRF ARW...THE NMM IS A FEW HOURS
LATER. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR WAS BRINGING THE PCPN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...IT HAS SINCE SHIFTED TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND.
NEEDLESS-TO-SAY...A DIFFICULT POP FORECAST.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DIURNAL
RANGES SMALL WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH THE UPPER 60S NYC
METRO.
IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE WARM...MOIST AIR COMING ACROSS THE COOLER
NEAR SHORE WATERS...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE COAST...WITH PATCHY FOG INLAND.
SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK TROF TO THE WEST...A DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE...AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALL POINT TO SCT CONVECTION ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUE AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BE A SOURCE
OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT...INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING ALOFT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE ARE NO
DISCERNIBLE FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO PINPOINT A TIME AND/OR LOCATION
FOR CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2
INCHES...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...THE STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
WEAK.
OTHERWISE...WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO AROUND 80 NYC METRO AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES
FROM SMITH POINT EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT PASSES EARLY WED. THIS BRINGS IN SOME STABLE ELY
COMPONENT FLOW. TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE SOLID LLVL MOISTURE...THEN
ANOTHER LAYER OF DEEPER MOISTURE ABV H5. NO INSTABILITY OF NOTE.
THIS SETUP WOULD GENERALLY YIELD A DRY/SPRINKLES FCST...BUT WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND RESIDUAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...LEFT
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA IN THE FCST. IF UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS
NOT SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST...THE MAINLY DRY DAY COULD VERIFY. THE
BOUNDARY S OF THE REGION RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT THU. TIMING ATTM IS
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TIMING IS CRITICAL...WITH THE BEST CAPE
ACCORDING TO CURRENT PROGS LURKING SW OF THE CWA WITH A BRN AROUND
45. THERE WILL BE A SVR THREAT IN THAT SECTOR. AS A RESULT...CANNOT
RULE OUT A SVR THREAT THU AFTN ESPECIALLY NRN NJ IF THE FRONTAL
TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE A LITTLE FASTER. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...SO TSTMS SHOULD BLOSSOM DURING THE DAY. TOO FAR OUT FOR
THE MESOSCALE DATA...BUT THE GFS GIVES 25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND
SOME SBCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. COULD BE A GOOD BALANCE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AND SOME SVR. THE H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS INTO QUEBEC ON
SAT AND USHERS IN HIPRES INTO THE NERN CONUS. THE CDFNT TIMING IS
PROGGED DURING THE DAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE SLOWER. SHRA CHCS END BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRY WX BLOWS IN
THRU MON. THE STRETCH OF FAIR WX MAY CONTINUE THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDS...DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDS
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KNYC
TERMINALS WHERE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-7 KT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/PSBL
TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT...BUT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SEAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH EARLY WED MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE FRONT NEARS.
CONDITIONS WED THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY BLW SCA LVLS. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT ON THU AND FRI. THERE IS A
LOW CHC THAT SEAS OFF MONTAUK COULD REACH THE 5 FT THRESHOLD AT
TIMES DURING THESE PERIODS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY COME
WITH A COLD FRONT FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1032 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH WEAK THERMAL FORCING AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND
COASTAL CT AND EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL NJ MAY PROVIDE SOME LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...BUT THERE
ARE NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO HANG YOUR HAT ON FOR ANOTHER
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EPISODE. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
DURING THE WARM SEASON...OFTEN SUBTLE FEATURES ARE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE NECESSARY LIFT. A BIG LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH IS THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY. 00Z HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE ISOLD IDEA
THROUGH 7-8Z...WITH SCT TO NUMRS SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO THE S AND
W OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THERE IS
SOME SUPPORT OF THIS FROM THE WRF ARW...THE NMM IS A FEW HOURS
LATER. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR WAS BRINGING THE PCPN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...IT HAS SINCE SHIFTED TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND.
NEEDLESS-TO-SAY...A DIFFICULT POP FORECAST.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DIURNAL
RANGES SMALL WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH THE UPPER 60S NYC
METRO.
IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE WARM...MOIST AIR COMING ACROSS THE COOLER
NEAR SHORE WATERS...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE COAST...WITH PATCHY FOG INLAND.
SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK TROF TO THE WEST...A DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE...AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALL POINT TO SCT CONVECTION ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUE AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BE A SOURCE
OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT...INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING ALOFT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE ARE NO
DISCERNIBLE FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO PINPOINT A TIME AND/OR LOCATION
FOR CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2
INCHES...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...THE STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
WEAK.
OTHERWISE...WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO AROUND 80 NYC METRO AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES
FROM SMITH POINT EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT PASSES EARLY WED. THIS BRINGS IN SOME STABLE ELY
COMPONENT FLOW. TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE SOLID LLVL MOISTURE...THEN
ANOTHER LAYER OF DEEPER MOISTURE ABV H5. NO INSTABILITY OF NOTE.
THIS SETUP WOULD GENERALLY YIELD A DRY/SPRINKLES FCST...BUT WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND RESIDUAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...LEFT
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA IN THE FCST. IF UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS
NOT SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST...THE MAINLY DRY DAY COULD VERIFY. THE
BOUNDARY S OF THE REGION RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT THU. TIMING ATTM IS
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TIMING IS CRITICAL...WITH THE BEST CAPE
ACCORDING TO CURRENT PROGS LURKING SW OF THE CWA WITH A BRN AROUND
45. THERE WILL BE A SVR THREAT IN THAT SECTOR. AS A RESULT...CANNOT
RULE OUT A SVR THREAT THU AFTN ESPECIALLY NRN NJ IF THE FRONTAL
TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE A LITTLE FASTER. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...SO TSTMS SHOULD BLOSSOM DURING THE DAY. TOO FAR OUT FOR
THE MESOSCALE DATA...BUT THE GFS GIVES 25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND
SOME SBCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. COULD BE A GOOD BALANCE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AND SOME SVR. THE H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS INTO QUEBEC ON
SAT AND USHERS IN HIPRES INTO THE NERN CONUS. THE CDFNT TIMING IS
PROGGED DURING THE DAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE SLOWER. SHRA CHCS END BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRY WX BLOWS IN
THRU MON. THE STRETCH OF FAIR WX MAY CONTINUE THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDS...DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDS
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KNYC
TERMINALS WHERE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-7 KT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/PSBL
TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT...BUT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SEAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH EARLY WED MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE FRONT NEARS.
CONDITIONS WED THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY BLW SCA LVLS. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT ON THU AND FRI. THERE IS A
LOW CHC THAT SEAS OFF MONTAUK COULD REACH THE 5 FT THRESHOLD AT
TIMES DURING THESE PERIODS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY COME
WITH A COLD FRONT FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
801 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ORGANIZED RAIN IS EXITING TO THE E WITH JUST SCT ACTIVITY TO THE S/SW
OF LONG ISLAND.
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...JUST LOOKING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH WEAK THERMAL FORCING AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES.
THERE IS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST THAT MAY
PROVIDE SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WHILE THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN...THERE ARE NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO HANG YOUR HAT
ON FOR ANOTHER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EPISODE. HOWEVER...AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE DURING THE WARM SEASON...OFTEN SUBTLE FEATURES ARE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE NECESSARY LIFT. A BIG LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH
IS THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. 21Z HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA THROUGH
7-8Z...WITH SCT TO NUMRS SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO THE S AND W OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DIURNAL
RANGES SMALL WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH THE UPPER 60S NYC
METRO.
IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE WARM...MOIST AIR COMING ACROSS THE COOLER
NEAR SHORE WATERS...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE COAST...WITH PATCHY FOG INLAND.
SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.
THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WIND AND WIND WAVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK TROF TO THE WEST...A DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE...AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALL POINT TO SCT CONVECTION ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUE AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BE A SOURCE
OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT...INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING ALOFT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE ARE NO
DISCERNIBLE FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO PINPOINT A TIME AND/OR LOCATION
FOR CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2
INCHES...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...THE STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
WEAK.
OTHERWISE...WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO AROUND 80 NYC METRO AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES
FROM SMITH POINT EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT PASSES EARLY WED. THIS BRINGS IN SOME STABLE ELY
COMPONENT FLOW. TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE SOLID LLVL MOISTURE...THEN
ANOTHER LAYER OF DEEPER MOISTURE ABV H5. NO INSTABILITY OF NOTE.
THIS SETUP WOULD GENERALLY YIELD A DRY/SPRINKLES FCST...BUT WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND RESIDUAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...LEFT
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA IN THE FCST. IF UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS
NOT SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST...THE MAINLY DRY DAY COULD VERIFY. THE
BOUNDARY S OF THE REGION RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT THU. TIMING ATTM IS
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TIMING IS CRITICAL...WITH THE BEST CAPE
ACCORDING TO CURRENT PROGS LURKING SW OF THE CWA WITH A BRN AROUND
45. THERE WILL BE A SVR THREAT IN THAT SECTOR. AS A RESULT...CANNOT
RULE OUT A SVR THREAT THU AFTN ESPECIALLY NRN NJ IF THE FRONTAL
TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE A LITTLE FASTER. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...SO TSTMS SHOULD BLOSSOM DURING THE DAY. TOO FAR OUT FOR
THE MESOSCALE DATA...BUT THE GFS GIVES 25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND
SOME SBCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. COULD BE A GOOD BALANCE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AND SOME SVR. THE H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS INTO QUEBEC ON
SAT AND USHERS IN HIPRES INTO THE NERN CONUS. THE CDFNT TIMING IS
PROGGED DURING THE DAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE SLOWER. SHRA CHCS END BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRY WX BLOWS IN
THRU MON. THE STRETCH OF FAIR WX MAY CONTINUE THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDS...DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR GOING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. CONDS IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KNYC
TERMINALS WHERE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-7 KT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES AND TIMING OF SHOWERS. LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES. VLIFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES. VLIFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/PSBL
TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT...BUT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SEAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH EARLY WED MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE FRONT NEARS.
CONDITIONS WED THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY BLW SCA LVLS. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT ON THU AND FRI. THERE IS A
LOW CHC THAT SEAS OFF MONTAUK COULD REACH THE 5 FT THRESHOLD AT
TIMES DURING THESE PERIODS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY COME
WITH A COLD FRONT FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1001 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DELMARVA WILL STALL AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AS IT DOES, A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD THEN PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO CANADA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS A TSTMS FORMED LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENNG
ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN PA INTO CNTRL NJ...WITH LIGHT SLY
WINDS TO THE S AND LIGHT ELY WINDS TO THE N. A FEW OF THE HEAVIER
STORM PRODUCED FLOODING RAINS OVER PARTS OF SERN PA. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS NOW DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
GRADUAL STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOS. THERE IS SOME LINGERING INSTBY
SO WE ARE KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT THE RAP AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING SOME POSSIBLE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION SO WE HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS THEN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN, WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
NEARBY, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THERE
WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE 60S THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION, WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, MORE LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE ALSO POINTS TO AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH PERHAPS THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL NJ AND BACK IN ADJACENT PARTS OF PA WHERE SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY
TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A WEAK, LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO INDICATES SOME MORE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT TO PASS OVER
OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AMPLE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
FEATURES WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ALSO, WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN, SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOOK TO BE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY SHOWER OR POSSIBLE TSTORM ACTIVITY, AS
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE THROUGH
THE DAY. WE BLEND MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY AND EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION,
EXCEPT COOLER 70S AT THE COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB, EXCEPT AT
850MB. BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS NOT A GOOD MATCH FOR THE GEFS MEAN AND
ITS 6 HR PCPN FCST VERIFICATION IS A DISTANT THIRD BEHIND THE
ECMWF AND CAN GGEM. FOR ALL THE REASONS ABOVE PLUS HAVING TO BRING
ITS FCST SFC DEW POINTS DOWN TO MOS STAT GUIDANCE LEVELS HAS THIS
FCST PACKAGE FOLLOWING A 2/3RDS ECMWF AND 1/3RD CAN GGEM
COMPROMISE. ALSO THE TWO LATTER MODELS ARE A COMPROMISE FOR THE
BACKDOOR SFC HIGH BETWEEN THE STGST INFLUENCING WRF-NMM AND THE
WEAKEST INFLUENCING GFS SOLUTIONS.
UPSHOT WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL BE A RELATIVE POP LULL, THE COMBINATION
OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOOMS ON THU AND ESP FRI
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CLEARS. MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SUNDAY BEING DRY
THAN SATURDAY OR MONDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST DILEMMA BECOMES
HOW MUCH WILL THE BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD INTO NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE DELECTABLE DEW POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BACK
INTO OUR CWA, THE LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA IS
UNIVERSALLY PREDICTED TO BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD. COUPLED WITH WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF MCS GROWN VORT MAXES, RIDGING IS PREDICTED
TO INCREASE IN OUR CWA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RELATIVE POP MINIMUM
WITH HIGHEST POPS WEST WHERE UNCERTAINTY IS GREATEST. THUNDER
ITSELF IN THIS PERIOD DOES NOT LOOK RELATIVELY ENTHRALLING. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT WE
ARE NOT SHOWING ANY UPPER AIR IMPULSE OR SURFACE BASED BOUNDARY TO
BOLSTER POPS OR THUNDER.
MIN TEMPS WERE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH VS STAT GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS BECAUSE OF HUMID CONDITIONS. CONCURRENTLY EVEN WITH
THE COOLER MODELING SOLUTIONS GFS MOS MAX TEMPS LOOK ATTAINABLE AND
WERE FOLLOWED.
THEN ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PCPN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING FIRST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT AS A POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL TRIGGER
AND THEN THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (OK
IT IS BETTER) ARE NOT THE MOST VIGOROUS OF LOOKING SEVERE WEATHER
DAYS. THURSDAY WE MIGHT STILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL STABILITY FROM
THE MARITIME HIGH AND FRIDAY MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
ARE MODERATE. A FASTER CFP TIMING AND POSSIBLY A STRONGER THAN
PREDICTED JET WOULD ENHANCE SEVERE CHANCES ON FRIDAY. SO THE BOOK
IS NOT CLOSED ON THIS YET. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, THE PREDICTED PCPN WATER VALUES NORTH OF 1.5 INCHES
COUPLED WITH WHAT COULD BE ANTECEDENT HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LIKE TODAY)
WILL MAKE THURSDAY AS MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT AS SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
THE OP GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE CAN GGEM OR ECMWF WITH CLEARING THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WITHOUT FURTHER CORROBORATION, OUR ONE
ADJUSTMENT WE MADE WAS TO UP POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WE KEPT
SATURDAY DRY. BETTER CONSENSUS OF A DRY SUNDAY AND FOR NOW WE
STARTED MONDAY DAY DRY PRECEDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
WHILE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE DROPPING TO MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS ON THE
WEEKEND AND STAYING SO ON MONDAY, MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DROP. SOME MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING
AREAS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS AS
THEY LOOK AT THIS JUNCTURE TO BE DECENT (AS DECENT AS THEY CAN BE
FOR JUNE) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AS OF MID EVENING THERE IS A Q-STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE PHL VCNTY. GENERALLY VFR CONDS ARE NOTED TO
THE SOUTH WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS TO THE N. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...CONDS AT ALL OUR TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT DUE TO FORMATION OF STRATUS AND FOG. CIGS
ESPECIALLY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LOW IFR FOR A
TIME. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TO
START THE DAY, WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND IN THE 5
TO 8 KNOT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY VFR.
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY WITH MORE MVFR
AND LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN AS WELL AS EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
AND FOG.
SATURDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING FOG, VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED
TO BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WITH 1
TO 3 FOOT SEAS INTO DELAWARE BAY. OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WINDS
ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND MAINLY IN THE 10 TO
15 KNOT RANGE, WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
WIND FLOW REMAINS WEAK. GREATEST MARINE CONCERNS MAY BE AREAS OF FOG
AS WELL AS STRONGER TSTMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED CONCERNS
ABOUT ANY FOG, NO PCPN EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
851 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS THIS AREA HAS NOT SEEN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY. SO WILL REMOVE POPS OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WHERE A 20 PERCENT
POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRE OVER WESTERN BROWARD COUNTY WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS A DRAINAGE FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION. SO WILL CONTINUE THE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD SMOKE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY SMOKE
RIGHT ALONG THE EAST COASTAL AREAS.
THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDER OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING IN -9 TO -11C 500 MB TEMPS TO THE AREA BY MIDDLE
TO END OF THE WEEK. SO A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THEREFORE...THE
HWO PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WORDING FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/
AVIATION...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN TERMS OF SMOKE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. LARGE WILDFIRE OVER RURAL BROWARD HAS GROWN TO NEARLY
20,000 ACRES. JUST SPOKE TO FLORIDA FORESTRY SERVICE AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MISSED THE FIRE TODAY...SO SMOKE EMISSIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WIND FLOW IS ALREADY LIGHT AND HRRR MODEL SHOWS
OFFSHORE NW LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ACT TO
RE-SEND SMOKE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PIN POINTING HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GO
AND WHERE THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IS IMPOSSIBLE. IN
COLLABORATION WITH CWSU MIAMI, OPTED TO GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AND WILL AMEND ACCORDINGLY AS
IFR IS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. ADDED VCTS ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING BY
NOON TUE FOR THE EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPMENT THEN.
/GREGORIA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE GULF
BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
HAS ALSO PUSHED INLAND DEVELOPING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY STRETCHING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNDOWN WITH HEATING LOSS.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE DUE TO AN ONGOING
WILDFIRE IN NORTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY. SMOKE LINGERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE BROWARD METRO AREAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA AS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SMOKE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROBLEM AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
AGAIN. THEREFORE KEPT PATCHY TO AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL YIELD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. AN H5 TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY BUT
SHOULD STILL BE A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE
APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE DEPICTED BY THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING VALUES IN THE -9C TO -11C
RANGE. YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND KEEPING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THESE COULD
BE STRONG DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AVIATION...
AFTERNOON HEATING AND MIXING COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HAS LED TO A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
REGARDING THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMOKE FROM
THE LARGE WILDFIRE. ALTHOUGH THE SMOKE CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS...WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
TRENDING DOWN. LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE
CONCERN WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON THE LATEST STATE OF
THE WILDFIRE. FOR NOW...THIS TAF PACKAGE DOES NOT INCLUDE SMOKE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS REMAINING WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 89 75 89 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 90 76 90 / 10 30 20 30
MIAMI 76 90 76 90 / 10 30 20 30
NAPLES 74 89 73 88 / 10 40 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS AS NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
CUTS OFF INTO A LARGE AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS/TN VALLEYS.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE OPENING UP BUT AMPLIFYING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE THIS ARRIVING
FEATURE BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
INCREASING DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL MAXIMIZE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND LIKELY
RESULT IN AN ACTIVE CONVECTION PATTERN FOR A FEW DAYS.
BACK TO THE PRESENT...
CURRENTLY SEEING WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
10/00Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWED NOT A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN...BUT THE FACTOR THAT WAS SLOWING DOWN THE CONVECTION...OR AT
LEAST KEEPING THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN CHECK...WAS A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION / WARM LAYER BETWEEN 5-10 KFT. FOR PARCELS TO
BREAK THIS CAP REQUIRED SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG INDIVIDUAL BOUNDARIES TO BOOST THE CAPE INTO THE LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION. ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS THE SUN IS SETTING IS BECOMING
RATHER SPARSE AS THE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL AND EVEN AREAS OF
MOISTURE POOLING BECOME INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.
OVERALL HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
REMOVED ALL POPS AFTER 03Z.
AS OF 845 PM...REALLY ONLY WATCHING ONE STORM MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH THE LAKELAND AREA OF POLK COUNTY. OTHER THAN THIS
CELL...WHICH SHOULD NOT LAST TOO MUCH LONGER...EXPECTING A TYPICAL
QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
POSSIBLY INTENSITY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO MONDAY. THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A MORE CYCLONIC SIGNATURE ON
TUESDAY...AND THE GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW OUR 850/500 DECREASING BY A
DEGREE OR 2. A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAY NOT SEEM LIKE MUCH...BUT IT CAN
MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE TO THE ABILITY OF AN AIR PARCEL TO RISE.
THESE COOLER TEMPS ALONG AND THE CYCLONIC/SYNOPTIC SUPPORT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GIVE US A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENTLY POPS ARE IN THE 30-50% RANGE...AND THIS
MAY BE A BIT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. NEXT SHIFT WILL RE-EVALUATE
THE CONVECTIVE FAVORABILITY OF THE COLUMN BASED ON THE 00Z ENSEMBLE
DATA AND DETERMINE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED. LOCAL
AND NATIONAL HIRES CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE ARE NOT HINTING THAT
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY (AT LEAST LOOKING AT THE CONSENSUS UPDRAFT
VELOCITIES)...HOWEVER MOST DO HAVE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS IF YOU
LOOK AT THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCT STORMS ARE FADING QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM CONVECTION AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF TUESDAY. STORM COVERAGE APPEARS
LIKELY TO BE GREATER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN ON TUESDAY GIVING EACH
TERMINAL A FAIR CHANCE AT A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTION BEFORE
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT EACH AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN CONFINED TO NEAR THE COASTLINE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASED OVER THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
FROM THE GULF AND MAY OCCUR MUCH EARLIER IN THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 91 77 88 / 20 30 30 50
FMY 74 91 74 90 / 20 40 30 50
GIF 74 92 74 90 / 30 50 20 50
SRQ 74 89 75 87 / 20 30 30 40
BKV 70 92 71 90 / 30 30 20 50
SPG 78 89 78 88 / 20 20 30 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...GITTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.AVIATION...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN TERMS OF SMOKE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. LARGE WILDFIRE OVER RURAL BROWARD HAS GROWN TO NEARLY
20,000 ACRES. JUST SPOKE TO FLORIDA FORESTRY SERVICE AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MISSED THE FIRE TODAY...SO SMOKE EMISSIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WIND FLOW IS ALREADY LIGHT AND HRRR MODEL SHOWS
OFFSHORE NW LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ACT TO
RE-SEND SMOKE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PIN POINTING HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GO
AND WHERE THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IS IMPOSSIBLE. IN
COLLABORATION WITH CWSU MIAMI, OPTED TO GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AND WILL AMEND ACCORDINGLY AS
IFR IS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. ADDED VCTS ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING BY
NOON TUE FOR THE EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPMENT THEN.
/GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE GULF
BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
HAS ALSO PUSHED INLAND DEVELOPING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY STRETCHING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNDOWN WITH HEATING LOSS.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE DUE TO AN ONGOING
WILDFIRE IN NORTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY. SMOKE LINGERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE BROWARD METRO AREAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA AS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SMOKE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROBLEM AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
AGAIN. THEREFORE KEPT PATCHY TO AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL YIELD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. AN H5 TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY BUT
SHOULD STILL BE A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE
APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE DEPICTED BY THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING VALUES IN THE -9C TO -11C
RANGE. YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND KEEPING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THESE COULD
BE STRONG DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AVIATION...
AFTERNOON HEATING AND MIXING COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HAS LED TO A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
REGARDING THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMOKE FROM
THE LARGE WILDFIRE. ALTHOUGH THE SMOKE CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS...WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
TRENDING DOWN. LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE
CONCERN WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON THE LATEST STATE OF
THE WILDFIRE. FOR NOW...THIS TAF PACKAGE DOES NOT INCLUDE SMOKE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS REMAINING WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 89 75 89 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 90 76 90 / 10 30 20 30
MIAMI 76 90 76 90 / 10 30 20 30
NAPLES 74 89 73 88 / 10 40 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
131 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.AVIATION...CONCERN IS NEAR TERM TSTORM IMPACTS. KFLL WAS
IMPACTED EARLIER, NOW IN LINE IS KMIA AND KTMB WITH DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED THERE NEXT 1-2 HR. IFR POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
/GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTEND EAST
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE 500 MB
TEMPS TO WARM UP FROM -9.5C THIS MORNING TO -7.5C THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PWAT VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 1.7
TO 1.8 INCH RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. SO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STORMS WILL BE MORE OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME POPCORN TYPE.
THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL COLLIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER THE METRO AREAS.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. SO WILL SHOW A 20 TO 30 POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS FOR THIS EVENING WITH THE METRO AREAS REMAINING
DRY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...THOUGH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY INDUCE BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS...PARTICULARLY AT MORE INLAND TERMINALS /MIA/TMB/FXE.
INITATION TIME IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 18Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH...SO VCTS SUFFICES FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN SE BY NOON
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. LIGHT/CALM WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED TO THE WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SET UP AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AIDING IN MAINTAINING A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED SOUTH FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST. RADAR
INDICATED 40-50 KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES BUT THE ONLY OBSERVATION THAT
SHOWED THIS WAS THE NORTHERN TOWER ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A 39 KNOT
GUST JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THIS CLUSTER IS NOW WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING AN EARLY START TO THE ACTIVITY AT AROUND 15-16Z.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL
ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS
500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -8 TO -9C RANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE WET
BULB ZERO AT JUST OVER 12K. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE
FOR HAIL BUT THERE WERE REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE SO WILL PLACE THIS IN THE HWO. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WILL THE SURFACE RIDGE SO NOT
MANY CHANGES SEEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGES TAKE PLACE WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE GFS HAS FINALLY BACKED OFF IN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR AT LEAST HAS DELAYED IT UNTIL BEYOND THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. IT IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
SHOWING. THAT IS KEEPING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2
FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO SEAS COULD
BE LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 88 76 87 / 10 40 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 87 76 88 / 10 40 30 50
MIAMI 76 87 76 88 / 10 40 30 50
NAPLES 75 88 75 88 / 10 40 10 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
948 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTEND EAST
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE 500 MB
TEMPS TO WARM UP FROM -9.5C THIS MORNING TO -7.5C THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PWAT VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 1.7
TO 1.8 INCH RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. SO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STORMS WILL BE MORE OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME POPCORN TYPE.
THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL COLLIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER THE METRO AREAS.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. SO WILL SHOW A 20 TO 30 POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS FOR THIS EVENING WITH THE METRO AREAS REMAINING
DRY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...THOUGH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY INDUCE BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS...PARTICULARLY AT MORE INLAND TERMINALS /MIA/TMB/FXE.
INITATION TIME IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 18Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH...SO VCTS SUFFICES FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN SE BY NOON
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. LIGHT/CALM WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED TO THE WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SET UP AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AIDING IN MAINTAINING A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED SOUTH FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST. RADAR
INDICATED 40-50 KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES BUT THE ONLY OBSERVATION THAT
SHOWED THIS WAS THE NORTHERN TOWER ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A 39 KNOT
GUST JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THIS CLUSTER IS NOW WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING AN EARLY START TO THE ACTIVITY AT AROUND 15-16Z.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL
ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS
500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -8 TO -9C RANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE WET
BULB ZERO AT JUST OVER 12K. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE
FOR HAIL BUT THERE WERE REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE SO WILL PLACE THIS IN THE HWO. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WILL THE SURFACE RIDGE SO NOT
MANY CHANGES SEEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGES TAKE PLACE WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE GFS HAS FINALLY BACKED OFF IN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR AT LEAST HAS DELAYED IT UNTIL BEYOND THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. IT IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
SHOWING. THAT IS KEEPING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2
FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO SEAS COULD
BE LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 75 88 76 / 20 10 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 76 87 76 / 20 10 40 30
MIAMI 92 76 87 76 / 20 10 40 30
NAPLES 90 75 88 75 / 20 10 40 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...THOUGH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY INDUCE BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS...PARTICULARLY AT MORE INLAND TERMINALS /MIA/TMB/FXE.
INITATION TIME IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 18Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH...SO VCTS SUFFICES FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN SE BY NOON
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. LIGHT/CALM WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED TO THE WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SET UP AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AIDING IN MAINTAINING A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED SOUTH FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST. RADAR
INDICATED 40-50 KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES BUT THE ONLY OBSERVATION THAT
SHOWED THIS WAS THE NORTHERN TOWER ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A 39 KNOT
GUST JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THIS CLUSTER IS NOW WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING AN EARLY START TO THE ACTIVITY AT AROUND 15-16Z.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL
ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS
500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -8 TO -9C RANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE WET
BULB ZERO AT JUST OVER 12K. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE
FOR HAIL BUT THERE WERE REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE SO WILL PLACE THIS IN THE HWO. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WILL THE SURFACE RIDGE SO NOT
MANY CHANGES SEEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGES TAKE PLACE WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE GFS HAS FINALLY BACKED OFF IN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR AT LEAST HAS DELAYED IT UNTIL BEYOND THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. IT IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
SHOWING. THAT IS KEEPING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2
FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO SEAS COULD
BE LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 75 88 76 / 50 30 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 76 87 76 / 40 30 40 30
MIAMI 89 76 87 76 / 50 30 40 30
NAPLES 88 75 88 75 / 30 20 40 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 10 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary,
weak frontal system along the SC-GA border through western TN, a
weak ridge across the FL Peninsula, and a meso high (preceded by
an outflow boundary to its south and east) in northern AL. The
NCEP WRF ARW and 04 UTC HRRR forecast this MCS to gradually weaken
as it propagates quickly east-southeastward across northern
portions of our forecast area before dawn, but some of this area
may still get some brief rain. Otherwise, we expect scattered
mainly afternoon thunderstorms to develop along various mesoscale
boundaries, especially the sea breeze front (which may not begin
moving inland until mid afternoon due to opposing 1000-700 mb
winds). The PoP ranges from 30% at the coast to 50% in GA & AL.
Highs will be in the mid 90s. A few storms could be strong to
marginally severe, though the 700-500 mb lapse rates and 0-6km
bulk shear may not be quite as favorable for strong updrafts and
storm organization as the past few days.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
A mid-upper level ridge is expected to become better established
over the Southeast as an anomalously strong closed low takes shape
near the Ozarks late Monday into Tuesday. This is expected to
suppress convective activity more than we have seen in recent
days, so afternoon-evening PoPs are expected to be more in the
20-30% range. Highs should continue to be slightly above normal
with little change in 925-850mb temperatures or 1000-500mb
thicknesses - most likely in the lows-mid 90s.
.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The long term period is expected to be fairly wet as we begin to
transition to an active pattern. Models are in fair agreement
that we will see a dry and warm beginning to the long term period
with below normal PWATs through Tuesday evening. Thereafter, an H3
trough will begin to move southeast out of the Central Plains into
our forecast area Tuesday night. With this trough, global models
do show below normal H5 temps and near normal PWATs for our region
on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, so some strong storms are
not out of the question and will need to be watched in the future.
After Thursday, the global models are in fair agreement that we
will continue into a relatively active summer-time pattern with
showers and thunderstorms forming each afternoon.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] Most of the rain has ended, and there will be a
period of fair weather until this afternoon. Scattered TSRA will
develop this afternoon & evening, with brief periods of IFR cigs/vis
and gusty winds in the stronger storms.
&&
.Marine...
With a relatively weak surface pressure pattern typical of summer
around here, winds should be less than 15 knots for the
foreseeable future with seas 2 feet or less in most locations. The
highest seas may actually be closer to the coast - in the late
afternoon or evening hours - due to the daily sea-breeze
enhancement of winds in those areas.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected.
&&
.Hydrology...
Other than right near the Gulf coast, fairly widespread rain
totals of at least 0.25", and as much as 2", have been seen over
the past couple days. This has been sufficient to produce some
minor rises on area rivers, but no river flooding is expected.
Some slow-moving storms may produce localized flooding issues,
particularly in the mid-late part of the upcoming work week as
deeper atmospheric moisture returns to the area.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 72 94 71 94 / 40 30 30 10 20
Panama City 87 74 87 74 88 / 30 20 20 10 10
Dothan 93 73 94 72 93 / 50 30 30 10 10
Albany 94 72 95 72 93 / 50 30 30 10 20
Valdosta 95 70 96 70 95 / 50 40 30 10 30
Cross City 92 71 91 70 92 / 30 30 30 10 30
Apalachicola 89 74 87 73 88 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
337 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED TO THE WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SET UP AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AIDING IN MAINTAINING A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED SOUTH FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST. RADAR
INDICATED 40-50 KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES BUT THE ONLY OBSERVATION THAT
SHOWED THIS WAS THE NORTHERN TOWER ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A 39 KNOT
GUST JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THIS CLUSTER IS NOW WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING AN EARLY START TO THE ACTIVITY AT AROUND 15-16Z.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL
ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS
500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -8 TO -9C RANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE WET
BULB ZERO AT JUST OVER 12K. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE
FOR HAIL BUT THERE WERE REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE SO WILL PLACE THIS IN THE HWO. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WILL THE SURFACE RIDGE SO NOT
MANY CHANGES SEEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGES TAKE PLACE WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE GFS HAS FINALLY BACKED OFF IN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR AT LEAST HAS DELAYED IT UNTIL BEYOND THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. IT IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
SHOWING. THAT IS KEEPING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SEA
BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE SO CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND WHILE MOST OF THE ACVITIY WILL FORM
INLAND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS, THERE COULD BE A STRAY CELL OR TWO
THAT DRIFT TOWARDS SOME THE EAST COAST SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2
FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO SEAS COULD
BE LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 75 88 76 / 50 30 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 76 87 76 / 40 30 40 30
MIAMI 89 76 87 76 / 50 30 40 30
NAPLES 88 75 88 75 / 30 20 40 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...52/PS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
245 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 10 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary,
weak frontal system along the SC-GA border through western TN, a
weak ridge across the FL Peninsula, and a meso high (preceded by
an outflow boundary to its south and east) in northern AL. The
NCEP WRF ARW and 04 UTC HRRR forecast this MCS to gradually weaken
as it propagates quickly east-southeastward across northern
portions of our forecast area before dawn, but some of this area
may still get some brief rain. Otherwise, we expect scattered
mainly afternoon thunderstorms to develop along various mesoscale
boundaries, especially the sea breeze front (which may not begin
moving inland until mid afternoon due to opposing 1000-700 mb
winds). The PoP ranges from 30% at the coast to 50% in GA & AL.
Highs will be in the mid 90s. A few storms could be strong to
marginally severe, though the 700-500 mb lapse rates and 0-6km
bulk shear may not be quite as favorable for strong updrafts and
storm organization as the past few days.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
A mid-upper level ridge is expected to become better established
over the Southeast as an anomalously strong closed low takes shape
near the Ozarks late Monday into Tuesday. This is expected to
suppress convective activity more than we have seen in recent
days, so afternoon-evening PoPs are expected to be more in the
20-30% range. Highs should continue to be slightly above normal
with little change in 925-850mb temperatures or 1000-500mb
thicknesses - most likely in the lows-mid 90s.
.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The long term period is expected to be fairly wet as we begin to
transition to an active pattern. Models are in fair agreement
that we will see a dry and warm beginning to the long term period
with below normal PWATs through Tuesday evening. Thereafter, an H3
trough will begin to move southeast out of the Central Plains into
our forecast area Tuesday night. With this trough, global models
do show below normal H5 temps and near normal PWATs for our region
on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, so some strong storms are
not out of the question and will need to be watched in the future.
After Thursday, the global models are in fair agreement that we
will continue into a relatively active summer-time pattern with
showers and thunderstorms forming each afternoon.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Monday] There is good agreement among the HRRR and
MOS in areas of low CIGS developing between 09z and 14z this
morning. There is a possibility that an MCS (moving southeast
across central AL at 06z) could disrupt this low cloud development
at KABY and KDHN, and perhaps even bring a brief period of rain
there. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected for the
rest of the day, outside of scattered afternoon & evening
thunderstorms.
&&
.Marine...
With a relatively weak surface pressure pattern typical of summer
around here, winds should be less than 15 knots for the
foreseeable future with seas 2 feet or less in most locations. The
highest seas may actually be closer to the coast - in the late
afternoon or evening hours - due to the daily sea-breeze
enhancement of winds in those areas.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected.
&&
.Hydrology...
Other than right near the Gulf coast, fairly widespread rain
totals of at least 0.25", and as much as 2", have been seen over
the past couple days. This has been sufficient to produce some
minor rises on area rivers, but no river flooding is expected.
Some slow-moving storms may produce localized flooding issues,
particularly in the mid-late part of the upcoming work week as
deeper atmospheric moisture returns to the area.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 72 94 71 94 / 40 30 30 10 20
Panama City 87 74 87 74 88 / 30 20 20 10 10
Dothan 93 73 94 72 93 / 50 30 30 10 10
Albany 94 72 95 72 93 / 50 30 30 10 20
Valdosta 95 70 96 70 95 / 50 40 30 10 30
Cross City 92 71 91 70 92 / 30 30 30 10 30
Apalachicola 89 74 87 73 88 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1022 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE SLOW WEAKENING WITH THE LINE OF
CONVECTION APPROACHING NORTHWEST GEORGIA...THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS TO MERIT A WATCH. I HAVE UPPED POPS
ONCE AGAIN AS THE MOMENTUM OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD OVERCOME THE WEAK
INHIBITIONS OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO TOMORROW...MAINLY TO FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED RADAR
TRENDS. UPPED POPS A BIT IN EAST CENTRAL ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PROXIMITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION IN SOUTH CAROLINA WHICH HAS BEEN
TRYING TO BACK-BUILD INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS
MOVING AWAY SO I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. OTHER
NOTICEABLE CHANGE WAS TO POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION
ENTERING WESTERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. IF THIS LINE HOLDS TOGETHER WE
WOULD SEE ITS EFFECTS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT...
SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW WELL THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES OUT AHEAD
OF THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND UP AND OVER THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ACROSS GEORGIA...I HAVE KEPT THESE POPS BELOW LIKELY AS WELL
FOR NOW. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE MODERATE INSTABILITY ON TAP...BUT 00Z
KFFC SOUNDING SHOWS A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AROUND
750-700MB UNDER THE WEAK RIDGING.
20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASED GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR...THERE IS DECENT MLCAPES
NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND IMPRESSIVE DCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1400 J/KG. THEREFORE ANY DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS FOCUSED FROM A
REMNANT MORNING MCV OUTFLOW WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL. SOME STRONG DEVELOPMENT AND
ISOLATED SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS VARIATION AMONG HI-RES SOLUTIONS WITH EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN SUGGESTING A LINE
OF STORMS PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 06Z...THOUGH FEEL THIS IS A BIT
OVERDONE AND MAY JUST BE A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE TRACKING NEWD. HAVE
ONLY TRENDED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH HIGHEST IN THE NW AND SLIGHT
FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
TRENDS AS THIS COULD BE INCREASED.
AS FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MAINLY WEST OF THE STATE...WE CANNOT LET
OUR GUARD DOWN ON HIGHER QPF VALUES POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NW
PORTION OF THE AREA...JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
INCREASE THE THREAT AS WE ARE ON EDGE OF BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHER
PWATS EAST OF THE TROUGH. HPC GUIDANCE HAS 48-HR TOTALS UPWARDS OF
2-2.5 INCHES IN THE FAR NW...BUT THIS SEEMS TOO BULLISH AND WITHOUT
MUCH CONSISTENCY SO WENT WITH GENERAL BLEND THAT HAS LOWER AMOUNT
OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS NW FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER POPS SOUTHEAST AS SWATH OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPC HAS NW GA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TUESDAY...BUT FEEL THAT WILL BE FIGHTING THE BALANCE BETWEEN
LINGERING CLOUD COVER/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WITH MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. DECENT PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES AGAIN NEAR 2000
J/KG FARTHER SOUTHEAST SO THREAT MAY END UP BEING SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON AND OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT RISK AREA.
BAKER
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE CWFA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN DECENT. IF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM COMES THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER IN
THE DAY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IF THE
SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH DURING PRIME HEATING...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
MODELS ARE STILL PROGGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN OPEN LOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD ALSO
SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.
IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND HAS TURNED ZONAL.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF INDICATE THAT A 500MB TROUGH
WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WOULD MEAN
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED UNTIL THE FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
NLISTEMAA
&&
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH 06-08Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
08Z AND 15Z...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 18Z OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.
TONIGHT...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH 06Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY APPROACH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TO SCATTERED AFTER 18Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6KTS THROUGH 14Z
INCREASING TO 7-10KTS..WITH GUSTS 14-18KT...BY 18Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 92 69 87 / 40 40 40 60
ATLANTA 71 87 70 84 / 60 40 40 60
BLAIRSVILLE 63 82 64 79 / 60 50 50 60
CARTERSVILLE 68 86 68 83 / 60 50 50 60
COLUMBUS 72 89 71 86 / 50 30 30 60
GAINESVILLE 69 87 69 83 / 50 40 40 60
MACON 70 92 69 88 / 30 30 30 60
ROME 67 86 69 83 / 60 60 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 68 87 68 84 / 60 40 40 60
VIDALIA 73 93 73 90 / 30 30 30 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...
FLOYD...GORDON...HARALSON...HEARD...MURRAY...PAULDING...POLK...
WALKER...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1000 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE PLUS A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP TONIGHT SHOWS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AT 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. EXPECT STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DIE OUT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL COOLING. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN IN THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR MODELS SHOWS
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND REACHING THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS NEAR
DAYBREAK. EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WARM MID
AND LOW LEVELS WITH A BIT OF A CAPPING INVERSION. DESPITE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF A TRIGGER AND ANY UPPER SUPPORT AND THE
INHIBITING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION AND WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE THOUGH WITH FAVORABLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR
AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. WILL KEEP WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID...POSSIBLY SOME
UPPER...90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTHERLY 500MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN MOIST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY WITH DIMINISHING
POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION WANES DUE TO LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM IN
THE AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING AROUND 1.7 INCHES WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT WILL
LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA. SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING
RETURNS BY SUNDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AND EXPECT DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST TODAY. WEAK CAP OVER THE
AREA MAY BREAK BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST...SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
22Z. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN THE
EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
840 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO TOMORROW...MAINLY TO FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED RADAR
TRENDS. UPPED POPS A BIT IN EAST CENTRAL ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PROXIMITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION IN SOUTH CAROLINA WHICH HAS BEEN
TRYING TO BACK-BUILD INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS
MOVING AWAY SO I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. OTHER
NOTICEABLE CHANGE WAS TO POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION
ENTERING WESTERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. IF THIS LINE HOLDS TOGETHER WE
WOULD SEE ITS EFFECTS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT...
SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW WELL THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES OUT AHEAD
OF THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND UP AND OVER THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ACROSS GEORGIA...I HAVE KEPT THESE POPS BELOW LIKELY AS WELL
FOR NOW. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE MODERATE INSTABILITY ON TAP...BUT 00Z
KFFC SOUNDING SHOWS A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AROUND
750-700MB UNDER THE WEAK RIDGING.
20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASED GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR...THERE IS DECENT MLCAPES
NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND IMPRESSIVE DCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1400 J/KG. THEREFORE ANY DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS FOCUSED FROM A
REMNANT MORNING MCV OUTFLOW WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL. SOME STRONG DEVELOPMENT AND
ISOLATED SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS VARIATION AMONG HI-RES SOLUTIONS WITH EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN SUGGESTING A LINE
OF STORMS PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 06Z...THOUGH FEEL THIS IS A BIT
OVERDONE AND MAY JUST BE A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE TRACKING NEWD. HAVE
ONLY TRENDED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH HIGHEST IN THE NW AND SLIGHT
FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
TRENDS AS THIS COULD BE INCREASED.
AS FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MAINLY WEST OF THE STATE...WE CANNOT LET
OUR GUARD DOWN ON HIGHER QPF VALUES POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NW
PORTION OF THE AREA...JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
INCREASE THE THREAT AS WE ARE ON EDGE OF BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHER
PWATS EAST OF THE TROUGH. HPC GUIDANCE HAS 48-HR TOTALS UPWARDS OF
2-2.5 INCHES IN THE FAR NW...BUT THIS SEEMS TOO BULLISH AND WITHOUT
MUCH CONSISTENCY SO WENT WITH GENERAL BLEND THAT HAS LOWER AMOUNT
OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS NW FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER POPS SOUTHEAST AS SWATH OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPC HAS NW GA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TUESDAY...BUT FEEL THAT WILL BE FIGHTING THE BALANCE BETWEEN
LINGERING CLOUD COVER/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WITH MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. DECENT PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES AGAIN NEAR 2000
J/KG FARTHER SOUTHEAST SO THREAT MAY END UP BEING SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON AND OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT RISK AREA.
BAKER
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE CWFA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN DECENT. IF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM COMES THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER IN
THE DAY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IF THE
SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH DURING PRIME HEATING...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
MODELS ARE STILL PROGGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN OPEN LOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD ALSO
SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.
IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND HAS TURNED ZONAL.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF INDICATE THAT A 500MB TROUGH
WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WOULD MEAN
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED UNTIL THE FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
NLISTEMAA
&&
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH 06-08Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
08Z AND 15Z...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 18Z OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.
TONIGHT...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH 06Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY APPROACH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TO SCATTERED AFTER 18Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6KTS THROUGH 14Z
INCREASING TO 7-10KTS..WITH GUSTS 14-18KT...BY 18Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 92 69 87 / 30 30 40 60
ATLANTA 71 87 70 84 / 40 40 40 60
BLAIRSVILLE 63 82 64 79 / 40 50 50 60
CARTERSVILLE 68 86 68 83 / 40 50 50 60
COLUMBUS 72 89 71 86 / 30 30 30 60
GAINESVILLE 69 87 69 83 / 40 40 40 60
MACON 70 92 69 88 / 20 30 30 60
ROME 67 86 69 83 / 50 60 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 68 87 68 84 / 40 40 40 60
VIDALIA 73 93 73 90 / 30 30 30 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASED GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR...THERE IS DECENT MLCAPES
NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND IMPRESSIVE DCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1400 J/KG. THEREFORE ANY DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS FOCUSED FROM A
REMNANT MORNING MCV OUTFLOW WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL. SOME STRONG DEVELOPMENT AND
ISOLATED SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS VARIATION AMONG HI-RES SOLUTIONS WITH EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN SUGGESTING A LINE
OF STORMS PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 06Z...THOUGH FEEL THIS IS A BIT
OVERDONE AND MAY JUST BE A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE TRACKING NEWD. HAVE
ONLY TRENDED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH HIGHEST IN THE NW AND SLIGHT
FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
TRENDS AS THIS COULD BE INCREASED.
AS FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MAINLY WEST OF THE STATE...WE CANNOT LET
OUR GUARD DOWN ON HIGHER QPF VALUES POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NW
PORTION OF THE AREA...JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
INCREASE THE THREAT AS WE ARE ON EDGE OF BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHER
PWATS EAST OF THE TROUGH. HPC GUIDANCE HAS 48-HR TOTALS UPWARDS OF
2-2.5 INCHES IN THE FAR NW...BUT THIS SEEMS TOO BULLISH AND WITHOUT
MUCH CONSISTENCY SO WENT WITH GENERAL BLEND THAT HAS LOWER AMOUNT
OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS NW FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER POPS SOUTHEAST AS SWATH OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPC HAS NW GA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TUESDAY...BUT FEEL THAT WILL BE FIGHTING THE BALANCE BETWEEN
LINGERING CLOUD COVER/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WITH MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. DECENT PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES AGAIN NEAR 2000
J/KG FARTHER SOUTHEAST SO THREAT MAY END UP BEING SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON AND OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT RISK AREA.
BAKER
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE CWFA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN DECENT. IF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM COMES THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER IN
THE DAY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IF THE
SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH DURING PRIME HEATING...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
MODELS ARE STILL PROGGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN OPEN LOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD ALSO
SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.
IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND HAS TURNED ZONAL.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF INDICATE THAT A 500MB TROUGH
WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WOULD MEAN
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED UNTIL THE FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH 06-08Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
08Z AND 15Z...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 18Z OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.
TONIGHT...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH 06Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY APPROACH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TO SCATTERED AFTER 18Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6KTS THROUGH 14Z
INCREASING TO 7-10KTS..WITH GUSTS 14-18KT...BY 18Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 92 69 87 / 20 30 30 60
ATLANTA 71 87 70 84 / 30 40 30 60
BLAIRSVILLE 63 82 64 79 / 30 40 50 60
CARTERSVILLE 68 86 68 83 / 30 50 50 60
COLUMBUS 72 89 71 86 / 20 30 30 60
GAINESVILLE 69 87 69 83 / 30 40 40 60
MACON 70 92 69 88 / 20 30 20 60
ROME 67 86 69 83 / 40 60 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 68 87 68 84 / 30 40 30 60
VIDALIA 73 93 73 90 / 30 30 20 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
815 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT HAD MOVED INTO THE MIDLANDS HAS NOW
WEAKENED. LATEST HRRR MODELS SUGGESTS WEAKENING TREND AS STORMS
MOVE INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
1.75 INCHES. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. AIR
MASS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DEGREE. BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS APPEAR TO FAVOR CSRA AND WEST
MIDLANDS. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE UNSTABLE MONDAY AS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS MONDAY AND NOTE UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER
APPEARS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE/PIEDMONT AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE. STRONGER INSTABILITY TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUE CHANCE
OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THEN
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREVIOUS BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CSRA HAS WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO THE MIDLANDS. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH
WHERE NEEDED...WITH SOME MVFR FOG AT DNL. STILL SOME STRATUS ACROSS
THE AREA. IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE FA TODAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO S TO SW AND INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE NC AND AS A TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHES OUR FA
FROM THE WEST. OVERALL INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER...BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
627 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CSRA INTO THE MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODELS SUGGESTS WEAKENING TREND AS
STORMS MOVE INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS FROM
THE CSRA TO CENTRAL MIDLANDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.75 INCHES. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. AIR
MASS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DEGREE. BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS APPEAR TO FAVOR CSRA AND WEST
MIDLANDS. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE UNSTABLE MONDAY AS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS MONDAY AND NOTE UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER
APPEARS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE/PIEDMONT AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE. STRONGER INSTABILITY TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUE CHANCE
OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THEN
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF WEAKENING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION INTERACTED WITH
SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE CSRA TO FRONT TO PROVIDE A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CSRA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST BUT SHOW A TREND
TOWARDS WEAKENING. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS/VCSH...WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
SHRA ACTIVITY IN THE NEAR TERM. STRATUS AREA THAT HAD COVERED MUCH
OF THE FA EARLIER THIS MORNING APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED. IT
APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE FA TODAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL VEER TO S TO SW AND INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE NC AND AS A TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHES OUR FA FROM
THE WEST. OVERALL INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
554 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CSRA INTO THE MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODELS SUGGESTS WEAKENING TREND AS
STORMS MOVE INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS FROM
THE CSRA TO CENTRAL MIDLANDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.75 INCHES. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. AIR
MASS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DEGREE. BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS APPEAR TO FAVOR CSRA AND WEST
MIDLANDS. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE UNSTABLE MONDAY AS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS MONDAY AND NOTE UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER
APPEARS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE/PIEDMONT AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE. STRONGER INSTABILITY TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUE CHANCE
OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THEN
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO EAST CENTRAL GA. RADAR LOOPS
SUGGEST SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE
CSRA...BUT STILL THINK A WEAKENING TREND WILL BE NOTED AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN FA. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AND A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SHRA AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT FOR DNL/AGS IN THE NEAR
TERM. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG
THE NC COAST. RESULTANT WINDS FROM THE SE LEADING TO STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STRATUS WITH IFR TO
POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. EXPECT
CIGS/VSBYS TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. IT
APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE FA TODAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL VEER TO S TO SW AND INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE NC AND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES OUR FA FROM THE
WEST. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR WEST PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR FA
TODAY. OVERALL INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT
SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...WILL
HANDLE THREAT WITH VCTS SINCE CONFIDENCE OF TSRA SPECIFICALLY
AFFECTING TERMINALS AT SPECIFIC TIMES IS LIMITED THIS FAR OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
504 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST GEORGIA
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AND REACHING THE CWA NEAR DAYBREAK.
HAVE GENERALLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.75
INCHES BY 12Z. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DEGREE. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE FRONT AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
APPEAR TO FAVOR CSRA AND WEST MIDLANDS. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE UNSTABLE MONDAY AS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS MONDAY AND NOTE UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER
APPEARS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE/PIEDMONT AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE. STRONGER INSTABILITY TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUE CHANCE
OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THEN
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO EAST CENTRAL GA. RADAR LOOPS
SUGGEST SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE
CSRA...BUT STILL THINK A WEAKENING TREND WILL BE NOTED AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN FA. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AND A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SHRA AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT FOR DNL/AGS IN THE NEAR
TERM. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG
THE NC COAST. RESULTANT WINDS FROM THE SE LEADING TO STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STRATUS WITH IFR TO
POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. EXPECT
CIGS/VSBYS TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. IT
APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE FA TODAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL VEER TO S TO SW AND INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE NC AND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES OUR FA FROM THE
WEST. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR WEST PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR FA
TODAY. OVERALL INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT
SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...WILL
HANDLE THREAT WITH VCTS SINCE CONFIDENCE OF TSRA SPECIFICALLY
AFFECTING TERMINALS AT SPECIFIC TIMES IS LIMITED THIS FAR OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
252 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST GEORGIA
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AND REACHING THE CWA NEAR DAYBREAK.
HAVE GENERALLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.75
INCHES BY 12Z. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DEGREE. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE FRONT AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
APPEAR TO FAVOR CSRA AND WEST MIDLANDS. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE UNSTABLE MONDAY AS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS MONDAY AND NOTE UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER
APPEARS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE/PIEDMONT AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE. STRONGER INSTABILITY TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUE CHANCE
OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THEN
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES OLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF
THE CSRA...WITH A DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA (FA). WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST. RESULTANT WINDS FROM THE SE FAVOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS STRATUS OVER FOG...WHICH MAKES
SENSE AS RADIATION FOG WILL BE IMPEDED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER...AND STRATUS BUILD DOWN TO THE SURFACE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
WARM SOIL TEMPS RELATIVE TO DEW POINT VALUES. RADAR CURRENTLY
INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING SE ACROSS N ALA/NW GA. BETTER
INSTABILITIES CURRENTLY EXIST OVER CENT ALA AND CENT GA...WITH
LESS INSTABILITY OVER OUR FA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
GENERALLY KEEP THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND GENERALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES
OUR FA...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE STRATUS WITH IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR
CIGS. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE FA
TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO S TO SW AND INCREASE TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE NC AND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES OUR FA
FROM THE WEST. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR WEST PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR
FA TODAY. OVERALL INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT
SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...WILL
HANDLE THREAT WITH VCTS SINCE CONFIDENCE OF TSRA SPECIFICALLY
AFFECTING TERMINALS AT SPECIFIC TIMES IS LIMITED THIS FAR OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
125 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AND REACHING THE CWA NEAR DAYBREAK. HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES
WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.75
INCHES BY 12Z. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT... HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION.
THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE CWA AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE
UNSTABLE MONDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED FOR MONDAY ALSO. GIVEN WEAK
FLOW AND HIGH PWAT....LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY THEN LOW 90S ON
MONDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THEN
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES OLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF
THE CSRA...WITH A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA (FA). WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST. RESULTANT WINDS FROM THE SE FAVOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS STRATUS OVER FOG...WHICH MAKES
SENSE AS RADIATION FOG WILL BE IMPEDED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER...AND STRATUS BUILD DOWN TO THE SURFACE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
WARM SOIL TEMPS RELATIVE TO DEWPOINT VALUES. RADAR CURRENTLY
INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING SE ACROSS N ALA/NW GA. BETTER
INSTABILITIES CURRENTLY EXIST OVER CENT ALA AND CENT GA...WITH
LESS INSTABILITY OVER OUR FA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
GENERALLY KEEP THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND GENERALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES
OUR FA...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE STRATUS WITH IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR
CIGS. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE FA
TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO S TO SW AND INCREASE TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE NC AND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES OUR FA
FROM THE WEST. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR WEST PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR
FA TODAY. OVERALL INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT
SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...WILL
HANDLE THREAT WITH VCTS SINCE CONFIDENCE OF TSRA SPECIFICALLY
AFFECTING TERMINALS AT SPECIFIC TIMES IS LIMITED THIS FAR OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
911 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
908 PM CDT
GOING FORECAST LARGELY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. COUPLE SHOWERS
DID POP ON THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LONG SINCE MET
THEIR DEMISE. LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NORTHEAST TOWARD US. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING IN THE
LARGE DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN INCHING NORTHWARD...SO BIGGEST
CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WILL BE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS
FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS LITTLE DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS PRECIP SO
REALLY JUST ANTICIPATE PLAIN OLD RAIN WITH LITTLE OR NO THUNDER
THREAT.
IZZI
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
301 PM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL WAVES ARE
FOUND FROM OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH ARE MOVING EASTWARD.
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW IS A SOUTHWESTERLY STREAM OF MOIST FLOW
WHICH IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO NORTHERN
OHIO. TO THE NORTHWEST...A TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALBERTA WITH SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LINED UP TO THE WEST OVER THE
PACIFIC. IN ADDITION...A BROAD LOW IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND THIS CUTOFF
WILL INTERACT LATER IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND OVER THE CONUS
AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOCALLY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC BACK ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA ON ITS
SOUTHWEST FLANK. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER LOW IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ALBERTA.
TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FLUX...THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA INLAND OF THE
LAKE. RADAR SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WHICH ARE MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
FADE WITH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR ROGUE SHOWER IN THE
FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION REMAINS SLOW. EXPECT THAT TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BROAD
SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BUT THIS LOOKS WEAK
AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY THERMAL ADVECTION TO PROVIDE ADDED
SUPPORT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE TROUBLE
HANDLING THE PRECIP TRENDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY DUE IN
PART TO THE HANDLING OF DRIER AIR ENTRAINED FROM THE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER LOW AND A DRY SLOT WRAPPING
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST FORCING WILL PUSH NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LIKELY REACHING SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING
BUT TAKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVEN EARLY EVENING TO REACH AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THEN IT BECOMES A MATTER OF
HOW WELL ORGANIZED RAIN REMAINS AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS BY
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SO FORCING WOULD
PRESUMABLY WEAKEN LEADING TO A DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FORCING DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATE IN THE
DAY. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS BETTER
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES IN AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOTAL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
AIR AT VARIOUS TIMES AND THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF BEST ORGANIZED
FORCING. THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVERALL WITH A BROADER AREA AFFECTED BY MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE NORTHWEST CWA LOOKS TO
RECEIVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN. HIGHS TUESDAY MAY BE COOLEST SOUTH
PROVIDED RAIN STARTS IN THE MORNING...WITH NORTHERN AREAS REMAINING
DRY ENOUGH TO WARM UP...POTENTIALLY TO NEAR THE HIGHS OF TODAY. THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OFF THE LAKE SO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WEDNESDAY
AND LIKELY BE PRECIP DEPENDENT. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO IF PRECIP REMAINS SCATTERED AND
EVEN ENDS LATER IN THE DAY THEN HIGHS MAY WELL REBOUND INTO THE MID
OR EVEN UPPER 70S...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ONCE
AGAIN.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND THEN
LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO TAKING A SURFACE LOW WITH IT. A
COOL FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW AND BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA SOME
TIME THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF PHASING WITH
A WEAK TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...WHICH WILL BE WHATS LEFT OF
THE CUTOFF OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS MAY YIELD A BETTER PRECIP
CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS VARIED ON THE DETAILS BUT WITH
THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND TRACKING NORTHEAST THE FRONT WOULD
LIKELY BE PRETTY STRETCHED OUT SUPPORTING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MAY PHASE
WITH ENERGY EJECTING FROM A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWING A DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A STEADY WARMING TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY TO THE LOWER
80S BY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER FRIDAY AND TO A LESSER DEGREE SATURDAY.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* NELY WINDS 10-15KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCE TSRA TUESDAY NIGHT.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION HAS SET UP
LARGE SCALE ELY-NELY SFC WINDS WHICH HAS BEEN INFLUENCED BY LAKE
MICHIGAN AS WELL. A LAKE BREEZE PUSHED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT WITH THE
SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
BELOW 10KT AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN ELY
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AS A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. SO...NOT ONLY WILL WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY THOUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA...PCPN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWERS COULD REACH THE TERMINALS BY
ARND 23-00Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...ONLY EXPECTING SHRA ON
THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM...WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR THUNDER
NOT COMING UNTIL THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW
NIGHT.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
219 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS
WILL GENERICALLY BE 10-15 KT BUT WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PASSES TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH THURSDAY AND THEN TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS BECOME EAST AGAIN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY AND WINDS BECOME
SOUTH AND REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
859 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
Will update the forecast tonight with rain moving in quicker and
already into our sw counties at mid evening as far ne as a Winchester
to Springfield to Shelbyville to Effingham line and lifting northward.
1003 mb low pressure along the OK/KS border with warm front extending
eastward into sw MO and central TN. Isentropic lift ahead of warm
front will develop light to moderate rain northward across central
IL late this evening and overnight. Leaned on the HRRR and RAP
models for timing this rain. SPC day1 outlook for tonight has risk
of thunder tonight sw of a Quincy to Decatur to Terre Haute line
and may need to added isolated thunder overight in sw CWA.
Otherwise rest of forecast looks good tonight with lows mostly in
the lower 60s with ENE winds near 10 mph or less.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 658 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
Used the HRRR and RAP models to time arrival of rain showers from
the ssw reaching SPI and DEC between 05Z-06Z and I-74 from 07-09Z.
Visibilities to lower to 4-6 miles in the rain with ceilings down
to 3-4k ft overnight and MVFR ceilings by daybreak. Models show
shield of rain showers spreading northward across central IL
overnight and then become more scattered during the day on Tue
with isolated thunderstorms possible after 18Z or 19Z Tue. 1003 mb
low pressure along the OK/KS border and 565 dm 500 mb low over
north central OK to move slowly east to the Ozarks in sw MO and nw
AR by Tue afternoon. Isentropic lift ahead of this feature to
spread the showers northward into central IL and remain in area on
Tue. ESE winds 7-11 kts to veer ENE during this evening and
continue through Tue.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
Shower chances will highlight this forecast, as a long wave trough
slowly advances from the Plains across the mid-Mississippi River
Valley through Wednesday night. A fast moving front will increase
shower chances again later Thursday and Thursday night before high
pressure provides a break from the rain through much of next
weekend.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night.
Satellite and radar images show a well-defined low pressure system
moving across S Kansas/N Oklahoma. An elongated region of
isentropic lift ahead of the low is creating enhanced mid level
cloud cover as far east as Ohio, which includes the southern half
of Illinois. Radar returns over our southern counties is not
reaching the ground due to a dry sub-cloud airmass. Gradual
saturation of the boundary layer will continue this evening, with
showers becoming likely after midnight south of Springfield to
Mattoon. The HRRR and NCEP 4km WRF show a band of showers/storms
affecting our southern counties after midnight tonight, so we
bumped up PoPs to categorical in the southern third of our
forecast area late tonight. It appears the band will progress
northward on Tuesday with a dry period developing from south to
north behind the band. There should be enough residual moisture
that a couple of additional showers could develop during the day
even where rain may end for a time in the morning. We tried to add
some detail to the PoPs on Tuesday to follow that band of rain
with categorical PoPs, and likely PoPs bordering the band.
The occluded low is projected to move into southern IL Tuesday
night, with waves of dry air wrapped into the low. That should
help to limit showers in the southeast half of our forecast area
later Tuesday night as diurnal stabilization helps decrease
updrafts. The coverage and timing of precip Tues night remains
problematic directly under the low center, but likely PoPs were
left over a majority of the area for now.
Wednesday will see showery precip linger in at least the eastern
half of IL as the low pressure system begins to depart into
Indiana. The trough axis is projected to reach the Indiana border
toward 00z/7pm, so subsidence should become more prominent west of
I-55 as the day progresses.
Wed night and Thursday could end up being a dry period before a
cold front triggers the next round of showers/storms later Thurs
afternoon and Thur night. Ridging is projected to develop during
Wed night and Thursday with somewhat drier and warmer air. Thursdays
highs may even have enough help from sunshine to reach the low
80s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday.
Dry and warmer weather is forecast for Friday into Sunday as an
upper level ridge and surface high pressure take control of the
weather in the region. Highs may remain in the upper 70s Friday
but should warm to the low 80s Sat and Sunday. A weather
disturbance previously indicated for Sunday in yesterdays models
has been delayed by both of today`s 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF.
Increasing chances of rain/storms appears in both of those models
starting Sunday night west of I-55 and expanding eastward on
Monday. Chance PoPs were included in both those periods to account
for the trends in model consensus.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
855 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS EARLIER THIS EVENING TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS TO MODIFY HOURLY
TEMP/RH TRENDS TO COOL/MOISTEN MORE QUICKLY WHERE STEADY RAIN WAS
MOVING IN. HAVE ALSO BOOSTED FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY
SOUTH.
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH CIRCULATION NOTED OVER WEST CENTRAL
IL AT AND BELOW 700 MB. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES AREA OF
MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF
IL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH RAIN NOW IN THE PROCESS
OF SPREADING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. DRY
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THESE AREAS HAD WORKED TO ERODE THE
INITIAL EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE STRONGEST 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...THUS HAVE BASED
FORECAST POP/QPF DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING CLOSELY UPON A BLEND OF
OBSERVED TRENDS AND THESE HIGH-RES MODELS. RAP MUCAPE FIELD
CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA (100
J/KG OR LESS)...THUS HAD EARLIER BACKED OFF TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF THUNDER WHILE RAISING OVERALL POPS FOR RAIN INTO 75-100
PERCENT RANGE (HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN 1/2 CWA). THE 00Z ILX
SOUNDING INDICATES A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.76 INCHES...AND
1.5-2.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MO/SOUTHEAST IA. THUS HAVE RAISED QPF AMOUNTS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-80...WHERE SOME 1.0-1.5 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MORE
PREVALENT HEAVIER RAIN.
RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST-EAST FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE.
SUBSIDENCE THEN DEVELOPS WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH COUPLED WITH DRYING OF
LOW LEVELS ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD HELP SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE
CLOUD COVER BY LATE MORNING.
RATZER/CMS
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
325 PM CDT
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LAKE
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...HAVE BEEN
MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL IL ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE SYSTEM IS LIFTING NEWD A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM GRIDS/FORECAST TO
REFLECT PCPN MOVING INTO THE FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTON COUNTY
BY ARND 21Z AND THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE
NEWD PROGRESS OF THIS PCPN WILL BE LIMITED IN PART BY THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL WI TO CNTRL IA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A BROKEN LINE ALONG OR JUST
POST-FRONTAL AND THIS ACTIVITY IS STEADILY PROGRESSING SEWD. THE
SEWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN
THE PUSH BEHIND THE NRN STREAM COLD FRONT. SO...THE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST EXTENSIVE PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE NOT
OUT OF THE WOODS AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED
AND THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT COULD STILL BRING SOME PCPN TO
THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRS STREAM SYSTEM WITH HAVE
GREATER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND HEATING...SO THEY SHOULD BE
STRONGER THAN THOSE TO THE NORTH. STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA MAY BRING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE SOME SMALL
HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY
MORNING AND THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW...SETTING UP GENERALLY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
WILL BE ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL LEVELS...IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING
HUMIDITY AT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG THE
LAKEFRONT...WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER...IN THE 60S.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL NOT BE UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER KS BORDER BY MONDAY WHICH THEN SLOWLY SINKS
SEWD TO THE INTERSECTION OF KS/OK/MO/AR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IT
SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFTS INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM...THE NAM HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN A
STRONGER/FASTER OUTLIER AND HAS BEEN DISMISSED. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS LIFTING THE SYSTEM OUT FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. THIS WILL IMPACT...IN PARTICULAR...THE TIMING OF THE END
OF THE PCPN OVER THE AREA. TYPICALLY...THE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
FAST IN OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT CLOSED UPPER LOWS...SO HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND
ANTICIPATE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR PCPN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD...FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE LOW
AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SERN CANADA AND WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME PERIODS OF PCPN DURG
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FROM A RELATIVE MINIMA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE MIDWEST...TRENDING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE
EXCEPTION AGAIN BEING THE LAKEFRONT WHERE DAILY LAKE BREEZES ARE
LIKELY AND WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER. AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY
DAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IS THURSDAY WHEN WLY-SWLY
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO PENETRATE UP TO THE LAKEFRONT.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN MOVING EAST BY 8-9Z.
* A PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR IFR.
* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT AT TIMES.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
BACK EDGE OF PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN SHIELD TIED TO STRONG UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW IS PAST RFD AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REMAINING TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE ARE SOME
BETTER RAIN BANDS THAT COULD OCCASIONALLY BRING VSBY DOWN TO THE
MVFR RANGE BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS. NEXT CONCERN IS WITH AREA OF LOW
MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST WI TO NORTH CENTRAL
IA. IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE RFD AREA IN A
FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH LOW LEVEL RH
RESULTING IN THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEAST...BUT IF
THEY ARE DELAYED ENOUGH...ITS POSSIBLE THAT ORD/MDW/DPA COULD ONLY
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OR OCNL LOWER CIGS FROM 11 TO 14Z. WITH COOL
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...GYY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS. ANY LOWER CIGS STILL
EXPECTED TO SCATTER TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE
AND IMPACT GYY FOR LONGER THAN INDICATED.
LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
AND OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN RAIN TRENDS.
* MEDIUM IN LOWER MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW IN IFR.
* HIGH IN NORTH-NORTHAST WINDS TODAY...MEDIUM IN GUST SPEEDS.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE TSRA...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
NORTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR. LATE DAY
LAKE BREEZE SHIFT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
205 PM CDT
WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...WITH 15 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SET UP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR THESE STRONGER NORTHERN WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH 4+ FOOT
WAVES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...INCLUDING BOTH THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ABATE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTED ONSHORE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND IT COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ENHANCED AT TIMES
ON MONDAY DUE TO LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES. THE WINDS IN CONDITIONS
LIKE THIS CAN SOMETIMES BE STRONGER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE INDICATES.
SO...WITH THIS IN MIND...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHER WAVES...POSSIBLY
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...COULD CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THESE ONSHORE EASTERLY WINDS COULD EVEN BECOME ENHANCED A BIT MORE
AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
MONDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...7 AM SUNDAY TO 4
AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM SUNDAY TO 4
AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
607 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
The 12z upper air analysis showed a closed 500 millibar low pressure
center over northwest Kansas. This low has been progressing steadily
southeast through the morning and early afternoon hours with the
help of an 80 knot jet in the southwest quadrant of the low from
southeast Colorado into the OK/TX panhandle region. At the surface,
low pressure has been deepening over south central Kansas through
the morning hours. A mosaic of radar plots has shown widespread
light rain over much of central and western Kansas today, occurring
in an area of mid level deformation around the upper low. Through
the early afternoon hours, the heavier rainfall has been limited to
central and eastern Kansas with a few bands trying to move back into
the Hays/Lacrosse areas. Accordingly, rainfall rates across central
Kansas have been fairly modest and with total rainfall amounts
around two inches or so at best, the threat for flooding has been
fairly low today. Strong winds exceeding advisory criteria have been
in place across far southwest Kansas today which has lined up nicely
with an 850 millibar speed max indicated by the RUC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
As the upper low continues southeast out of Kansas into this
evening, we should see the areas of light rain over far western
Kansas continue to diminish. Areas generally east of Highway 283
will see areas of rain, possibly along with an isolated
thunderstorm, continuing into the evening hours. Precipitation
chances should come to an end along the Highway 281 corridor around
or shortly after midnight.
The latest RUC and NAM model output shows the strong 850 millibar
jet propagating out of far southwest Kansas by 6 or 7 pm and lining
up more along a Hays/Larned to Dodge City line. The current wind
advisory goes until 7 pm. Will let it go until expiration time as
winds should be diminishing around or shortly after then.
Tuesday should be mostly sunny and fairly mild as an upper level
ridge moves over the central Plains. High temperatures should top
out in the mid 80s over far southwest Kansas with highs nearing 80
in central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
Subsidence will dominate the region Tuesday night and into early
Wednesday. Mainly sunny and much warmer conditions are expected
heading into Wednesday late morning and afternoon with the
development of southerly winds and much drier boundary layer air
working downslope with time into far western Kansas. An upper jet
immediately south of the region will drag an attendant
disturbance/shortwave into the Central Plains Wednesday night. The
ECMWF/GFS and NAM all model impressive 850-700 mb moisture transport
ahead of this wave giving high probability of another MCS in some
form. Based on the different model solutions, it seems reasonable
discreet cells could form out of Colorado in the early or mid
evening with cold pool development occurring farther east.
probabilities for precipitation were increased to at least 50% in
the far west to "Likely" (60-70%) farther east. By Thursday morning,
cloudy conditions may linger for much if not all of the morning
behind a surface cold front/cold moist surface outflow air, which
various models have forecast not to exceed the upper 70s.
Deeper into the period, for Friday and through the weekend will
bring at least one additional chance for organized thunderstorms. By
Friday an upper ridge will begin to build back into the central
Plains returning prevailing southerlies to southwest Kansas. The GFS
overturns instability on Saturday which is not well supported by the
ECMWF. More model consensus falls of convective development returning
Saturday night as the main upper wave lifts into the Northern
Plains with it`s attendant upper jet streak diving into the the
Central Plains inducing surface pressure falls and left front exit
region forcing for large scale lift. These model solutions focus
deep moist convection mainly over the Interstate 70 corridor of our
forecast area for the likely areas for storms. The far southwest
remains far behind the dryline.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
Based on radar trends and HRRR an area of steady precipitation
will at DDC shortly after 00z Tuesday and around 03z at HYS as an
upper level low moves east across southern Kansas. The gusty winds
will also subside to around 10 knots by 06z as 0-1km winds
decrease and the surface pressure gradient weakens. BUFR soundings
indicating the atmosphere below 900mb will persist through at
least 12z Tuesday, however prevailing winds do not favor dense
fog. MVFR cigs are expected overnight given the BUFR soundings and
current surface observations. VFR conditions will develop between
12z and 15z as northerly winds continue at around 10 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 82 58 90 / 70 10 0 30
GCK 49 83 58 92 / 40 10 0 30
EHA 50 84 59 90 / 0 0 0 20
LBL 50 83 59 93 / 20 0 0 20
HYS 53 80 58 89 / 80 10 0 30
P28 58 80 60 89 / 70 10 0 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ043-
044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
320 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Some slight pre-issuance adjustments were made to parts of Ripley
and Butler County Missouri with respect to precipitation chances
late this afternoon. Regional NWS radar mosaic showing 20+ dbZ
echoes encroaching toward the WFO PAH CWA around 20z. Although
there is still some dry air advection going on near the surface,
an accelerated downward saturation of the layer north of the
warm frontal boundary southwest of the forecast area should
support at least isolated rain/sprinkles before the end of the
first period (today). The 12z deterministic 12km NAM-WRF/40km GFS
are about 40-60 nautical miles too far southwest with this
convection, while the explicit 3km HRRR is about 20-30 nautical
miles further northeast with the 1km reflectivity than observed by
radar. Ironically, the 09z/15z SREF appears to be a good
compromise and was utilized for the last minute updates.
As the MCV/ mesoscale closed low shears out as it moves northeast
overnight, low level ageostrophic forcing will bring moist flow
back into the area, while impressing a differential convergence
zone and inverted trough at the surface. These features will be
loosely in place when the larger player (the eastern Colorado
closed low) moves into western Kansas and dives into northeast
Oklahoma early Monday evening. The approach of this low will
sharpen lapse rates both at the surface and aloft, as well as
enhance moisture convergence, setting a warm front across the
southern third of the WFO PAH forecast area. SPC is hinting that
this differential zone may be the foci for scattered strong to
severe storms during the late afternoon and evening. This is
definitely a possibility.
Although there is some similarities with this closed low to the
one that moved north of the WFO PAH forecast area on Saturday,
this next low will be a little slower moving with wind fields more
unidirectional with height. However the compensating factor may be
a sharp gradient of moisture/lapse rates along the eastern limb of
the closed low. This may yield some strong/severe thunderstorms,
mainly in the eastern sections of the WFO PAH CWA (mainly
West Kentucky Pennyrile/Southwest IN). The overall concern will be
heavy rain potential on Tuesday. Fortunately, the greatest storm
total QPF (rainfall) will likely be centered over western sections
of Southeast Missouri, where lesser amounts of antecedent rainfall
have occurred the last five days. However, the potential for
flooding will must be concerned given the terrain of Southeast Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
In the extended portion of the forecast package, the ECMWF (and to
a degree) the GFS, follow the translation of the upper low
northeast of the area into the Great Lakes region by 12z Thursday.
Minor disturbances push in the northwest flow behind this upper
low until the ridge builds in at low and middle levels Friday
night. This will keep minor chances for showers and thunderstorms
in place at least through the daytime hours on Friday. It looks
like we may see at least one day break in the convection on
Saturday before a return to southwest flow occurs late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
For the 18z Sunday TAF issuance attempted to the lower end
(cumulus) and upper end (Cirrus) ceilings with the departing
surface low to the northeast of KEVV/KOWB and the slowly
approaching low/warm front toward the KCGI/KPAH TAF sites.
Utilized the NAM-WRF cross-sections, spatially adjusted, to
reflect the approach of MVFR visibilities and ceilings to KCGI and
KPAH after midnight. The impact of the approaching frontal
boundary to KCGI/KPAH will have a greater impact on maintaining
MVFR ceilings and visibilities versus KEVV/KOWB. The latter two
TAF sites should remain in VFR conditions through the entire
forecast period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
132 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
PRETTY NO SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SO
FAR THIS MORNING. IN FACT...BASED ON RADAR DATA FROM THE PAST FEW
HOURS THERE MAY ONLY HAVE A BEEN A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS FORM OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT PRODUCED EVEN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION ON THE
GROUND. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING STRONGER AND STRONGER
CAPPING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY TO MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE WITH NO CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT ALL
CONSIDERING THE CAPPING SHOWING UP IN THE SOUNDINGS. ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER TOWARD THIS MORNINGS OBS AND CARRIED THAT TREND OUT THROUGH 0Z
TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. UPDATED ZONES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST IS CREATING SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
HAVE EVEN PICKED UP ON A LITTLE CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING FROM TIME TO
TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT
10 MPH OR SO BEHIND A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. WINDS
MAY GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES. ALSO...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING SOME LIGHT FOG FROM
STRATUS BUILD DOWN LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT
FOG IN THE UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
IN GENERAL LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE PESSIMISTIC WHEN
COMPARED TO REALITY...AND IT APPEARS THESE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN...CURRENTLY
PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA...IS FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS HAD
ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. AS A RESULT EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RESTING
RELATIVELY QUIETLY BETWEEN A STORM COMPLEX DRIVING THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS CORRESPONDING CONVECTION RIDING NORTHWEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS LIMITED
ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WHILE THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FIRED ACROSS PORTIONS
FORECAST AREA...OVERALL RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN HARD TO IGNORE.
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MISS MUCH OF OUR CWA. IN ADDITION
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED AS WELL THOUGH SPC STILL HAS A COUPLE COUNTIES IN OUR
EXTREME EAST IN A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO RIDE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
GENERAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
VERY CLOSE TO NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF LOW
WILL START OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BEING PULLED INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE RESIDUAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL GO
WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS SINCE TIMING ANY GIVEN
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. IN
GENERAL...POP CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST OVERALL FORCING AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HOW
QUICKLY RIDGING RETURNS. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE
TROUGH INFLUENCE AND KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE TAF SITES LIKELY
WILL SO DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...SJS COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN
THAT IS NOT LOOKING VERY PROMISING AT THE MOMENT. WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...AND
CONSIDERING THE UTTER LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE TAF SITES COULD SEE BREIF PERIODS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
FOG AND CIGS...BUT THE FOG FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A LACK
OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AND WILL AMEND THE TAFS AS NECESSARY SHOULD THE
FOG LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1131 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
PRETTY NO SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SO
FAR THIS MORNING. IN FACT...BASED ON RADAR DATA FROM THE PAST FEW
HOURS THERE MAY ONLY HAVE A BEEN A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS FORM OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT PRODUCED EVEN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION ON THE
GROUND. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING STRONGER AND STRONGER
CAPPING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY TO MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE WITH NO CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT ALL
CONSIDERING THE CAPPING SHOWING UP IN THE SOUNDINGS. ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER TOWARD THIS MORNINGS OBS AND CARRIED THAT TREND OUT THROUGH 0Z
TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. UPDATED ZONES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST IS CREATING SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
HAVE EVEN PICKED UP ON A LITTLE CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING FROM TIME TO
TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT
10 MPH OR SO BEHIND A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. WINDS
MAY GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES. ALSO...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING SOME LIGHT FOG FROM
STRATUS BUILD DOWN LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT
FOG IN THE UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
IN GENERAL LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE PESSIMISTIC WHEN
COMPARED TO REALITY...AND IT APPEARS THESE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN...CURRENTLY
PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA...IS FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS HAD
ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. AS A RESULT EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RESTING
RELATIVELY QUIETLY BETWEEN A STORM COMPLEX DRIVING THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS CORRESPONDING CONVECTION RIDING NORTHWEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS LIMITED
ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WHILE THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FIRED ACROSS PORTIONS
FORECAST AREA...OVERALL RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN HARD TO IGNORE.
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MISS MUCH OF OUR CWA. IN ADDITION
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED AS WELL THOUGH SPC STILL HAS A COUPLE COUNTIES IN OUR
EXTREME EAST IN A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO RIDE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
GENERAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
VERY CLOSE TO NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF LOW
WILL START OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BEING PULLED INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE RESIDUAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL GO
WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS SINCE TIMING ANY GIVEN
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. IN
GENERAL...POP CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST OVERALL FORCING AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HOW
QUICKLY RIDGING RETURNS. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE
TROUGH INFLUENCE AND KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST IS CREATING SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
HAVE EVEN PICKED UP ON A LITTLE CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING FROM TIME TO
TIME. COVERAGE IS NOT EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN
VCSH WITHIN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10KTS BEHIND A PASSING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. MODELS ADVERTISING A LOWER OF CIGS AND VSBY
THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO SOME STRATUS
BUILD DOWN. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE BY LOWER CIGS AND ADDED SOME LIGHT
FOG...BUT DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC AS GUIDANCE SINCE UPSTREAM OBS
SUGGEST INCOMING CIGS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS MODELS ARE
FORECASTING. WINDS SLACKEN AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
716 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST IS CREATING SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
HAVE EVEN PICKED UP ON A LITTLE CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING FROM TIME TO
TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT
10 MPH OR SO BEHIND A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. WINDS
MAY GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES. ALSO...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING SOME LIGHT FOG FROM
STRATUS BUILD DOWN LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT
FOG IN THE UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
IN GENERAL LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE PESSIMISTIC WHEN
COMPARED TO REALITY...AND IT APPEARS THESE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN...CURRENTLY
PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA...IS FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS HAD
ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. AS A RESULT EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RESTING
RELATIVELY QUIETLY BETWEEN A STORM COMPLEX DRIVING THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS CORRESPONDING CONVECTION RIDING NORTHWEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS LIMITED
ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WHILE THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FIRED ACROSS PORTIONS
FORECAST AREA...OVERALL RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN HARD TO IGNORE.
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MISS MUCH OF OUR CWA. IN ADDITION
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED AS WELL THOUGH SPC STILL HAS A COUPLE COUNTIES IN OUR
EXTREME EAST IN A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO RIDE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
GENERAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
VERY CLOSE TO NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF LOW
WILL START OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BEING PULLED INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE RESIDUAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL GO
WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS SINCE TIMING ANY GIVEN
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. IN
GENERAL...POP CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST OVERALL FORCING AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HOW
QUICKLY RIDGING RETURNS. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE
TROUGH INFLUENCE AND KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST IS CREATING SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
HAVE EVEN PICKED UP ON A LITTLE CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING FROM TIME TO
TIME. COVERAGE IS NOT EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN
VCSH WITHIN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10KTS BEHIND A PASSING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. MODELS ADVERTISING A LOWER OF CIGS AND VSBY
THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO SOME STRATUS
BUILD DOWN. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE BY LOWER CIGS AND ADDED SOME LIGHT
FOG...BUT DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC AS GUIDANCE SINCE UPSTREAM OBS
SUGGEST INCOMING CIGS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS MODELS ARE
FORECASTING. WINDS SLACKEN AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
448 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
IN GENERAL LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE PESSIMISTIC WHEN
COMPARED TO REALITY...AND IT APPEARS THESE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN...CURRENTLY
PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA...IS FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS HAD
ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. AS A RESULT EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RESTING
RELATIVELY QUIETLY BETWEEN A STORM COMPLEX DRIVING THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS CORRESPONDING CONVECTION RIDING NORTHWEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS LIMITED
ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WHILE THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FIRED ACROSS PORTIONS
FORECAST AREA...OVERALL RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN HARD TO IGNORE.
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MISS MUCH OF OUR CWA. IN ADDITION
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED AS WELL THOUGH SPC STILL HAS A COUPLE COUNTIES IN OUR
EXTREME EAST IN A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO RIDE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
GENERAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
VERY CLOSE TO NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF LOW
WILL START OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BEING PULLED INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE RESIDUAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL GO
WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS SINCE TIMING ANY GIVEN
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. IN
GENERAL...POP CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST OVERALL FORCING AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HOW
QUICKLY RIDGING RETURNS. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE
TROUGH INFLUENCE AND KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN GENERAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PESSIMISTIC. BUT IN REALITY LOWER RESOLUTION
MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE MAIN
STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS TURING OUT TO BE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH
THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT OUR AREA IS RESTING BETWEEN A
STORM COMPLEX DRIVING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RIDING NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER BUT LEFT MENTION OF A FEW HOURS OF VCSH...THOUGH THAT MAY
EVEN BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT MID DAY...FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
10KTS. WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20KT...BUT ONLY OCCASIONALLY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
432 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
IN GENERAL LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE PESSIMISTIC WHEN
COMPARED TO REALITY...AND IT APPEARS THESE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN...CURRENTLY
PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA...IS FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS HAD
ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. AS A RESULT EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RESTING
RELATIVELY QUIETLY BETWEEN A STORM COMPLEX DRIVING THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS CORRESPONDING CONVECTION RIDING NORTHWEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS LIMITED
ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WHILE THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FIRED ACROSS PORTIONS
FORECAST AREA...OVERALL RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN HARD TO IGNORE.
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MISS MUCH OF OUR CWA. IN ADDITION
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED AS WELL THOUGH SPC STILL HAS A COUPLE COUNTIES IN OUR
EXTREME EAST IN A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO RIDE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
GENERAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
VERY CLOSE TO NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN GENERAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PESSIMISTIC. BUT IN REALITY LOWER RESOLUTION
MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE MAIN
STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS TURING OUT TO BE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH
THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT OUR AREA IS RESTING BETWEEN A
STORM COMPLEX DRIVING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RIDING NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER BUT LEFT MENTION OF A FEW HOURS OF VCSH...THOUGH THAT MAY
EVEN BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT MID DAY...FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
10KTS. WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20KT...BUT ONLY OCCASIONALLY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
817 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING. BALLOON BURST 14 MILES
DOWNRANGE NORTHEAST IN THE BOGUE CHITTO NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE
JUST EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER WEST OF PICAYUNE AT AN ALTITUDE OF
20.3 MILES. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO 866 MB...THEN PSEUDO
WITH A BIT OF WARM LAYER TO 540 MB THOUGH NOT REALLY AN INVERSION
AND NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS PAST DAYS. TYPICAL INVERTED-V MOISTURE
PROFILE SURFACE TO 866 MB/ 4300 FT THEN SPREADING TO DRYNESS
ABOVE. WINDS WERE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY 10-35 KNOTS TO 30KFT BEFORE
BACKING TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO 33KFT...THEN SW-NW ABOVE. TROPOPAUSE
WAS AT 144MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -66.6C. PEAK WINDS WERE PRETTY
LOW...215/36KT AT ONLY 11.9KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS UP TO 1.66
INCHES...LIFTED INDEX -7...CAPE 2745 J/KG BUT HELICITY ONLY 40
M2/S2.
RAN CHAP ON THIS EVENING`S SOUNDING WITH 346K LIFT AT LFC/LCL
LEVEL OF 866MB YIELDED 53 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE...GUST POTENTIAL 28
KT WHICH WAS VERIFIED AT KMCB WITH A 28 KT REPORT IN CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. CHAP ON GFS 18Z RUN DOES SHOW A PEAK IN THREAT
MARGINALLY SEVERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10AM AND 1 PM TUESDAY. 24/RR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF JUST WEST OF TAMPA.
STACKED UPPER/SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND EAST TEXAS. A LINE OF
BROKEN CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF MEMPHIS...TO
MONROE...TO HOUSTON AT 3 PM. ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT PRESENT...WITH MAIN CONVECTION ABOUT 100 MILES
WEST OF THE AREA. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. WINDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE MIDDLE 90S. DEW
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE.
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW OVER THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW BEFORE BEGINNING
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. NEVER REALLY HAVE A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LOCAL AREA
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NEAR THE WEST EDGE OF OUR CWA AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT HRRR AND 3KM WRF RUNS.
REDEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS THE WEST EDGE
OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS WILL BE UNCAPPED FOR THE MOST PART BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. SHOULD BE SOME DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN...AT LEAST EARLY
ON...TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS
ON TUESDAY. ABOUT THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. WILL BE CARRYING HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...DEFINITELY ABOVE 12Z
MAV POP GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO MET/ECMWF VALUES.
MAIN TROF AXIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
THREAT ACTUALLY OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO
CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THERE IS GOING TO BE A DRY DAY
THIS WEEK...IT WILL BE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES ON TUESDAY...IN THE MID 80S...AND IF RAIN OCCURS
MID TO LATE MORNING...THAT COULD STILL BE TOO WARM. SOME
MODERATION OCCURS WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD BE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY. 35
LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION THAT COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE TROF SLOWS ALONG THE COAST. WILL ONLY KEEP POPS IN THE 30
PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW...AS FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
STRONG. SUNDAY WILL BE DRIER AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
STILL COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
GENERALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. 35
AVIATION...
MONITORING THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
LOUISIANA...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BEGIN DISSIPATING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. AS A RESULT...KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z. AFTER
06Z...AN ELEVATED INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THIS INVERSION
WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK RANGING AROUND 1000 FEET TO
DEVELOP. THIS IFR AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND
14-15Z TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
THE INVERSION BEGINS TO MIX OUT. 32
MARINE...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO DOMINATE THE MARINE ZONES. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET. OVERALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE AREA. 32
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 84 69 85 / 40 60 40 40
BTR 73 85 71 88 / 40 50 40 30
ASD 75 86 73 86 / 30 50 50 40
MSY 76 86 74 86 / 20 50 50 40
GPT 77 86 74 86 / 20 40 50 50
PQL 74 86 74 85 / 20 30 50 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
731 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LO AMPLITUDE UPR
TROF OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS TROF IS MOVING E
NEAR THE CNDN BORDER JUST N OF MN. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DPVA/
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND AREA OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET
MAX JUST NW OF LK SUP THAT IS SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV...ONLY A NARROW
BAND OF SCT SHOWERS HAS IMPACTED AREAS FM NW WI INTO THE WRN CWA
UNDER AXIS OF ENHANCED CLD COVER EXTENDING THRU THE UPR LKS INTO
ONTARIO. THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO MORE WDSPRD PCPN APPEARS TO BE VERY
DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.34
INCH /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...COMPARED TO 0.89 INCH AT MPX /110
PCT OF NORMAL/. WITH A LGT SE SYNOPTIC FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES
CENTERED JUST E OF LK SUP...THE LLVL DRY AIR FEED AWAY FM GRB IS
LIMITING THE SHOWER COVERAGE AND SPREAD TO THE E EVEN THOUGH THE
MID/HI CLD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE UNDER THE IMPRESSIVE H4-2 DVGC
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE POPS THRU LATE TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV/DYNAMICS. FOCUS FOR TNGT AND TUE SHIFT
BACK TO MAINLY TEMPS AS SHRTWV RDG BLDS BACK OVER THE UPR LKS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA/UPR DVGC ARE PROGGED
TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR LKS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG BEFORE MOVING
INTO SE ONTARIO SOON AFT 00Z. SINCE LATEST RUC FCSTS SHOW CORE OF
LLVL DRY AIR PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL UPR MI...WL RESTRICT
ACCOMPANING POPS TO JUST THE WRN CWA THRU LATE AFTN AS ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DRIER AIR. EVEN OVER THE W...
THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/UPR CNVGC AFT 21Z SHOULD
DIMINISH THE SHOWERS AND CAUSE THEM TO END COMPLETEY BY 00Z. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD SHOULD FOLLOW THE SHRTWV TO
THE E AS WELL...GIVING WAY TO MOCLR SKIES W-E. WITH A PERSISTENCE OF
LLVL DRY AIR UNDER THE MID/HI LVL DRYING AND LGT WINDS UNDER
LINGERING SFC HI PRES RDG...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR
MIN TEMPS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG LATE OVER THE FAR W WHERE THERE
WERE SOME SHOWERS/HIER SFC DWPTS THIS AFTN FARTHER FM THE CORE OF
THE LLVL DRY AIR.
TUE...HI PRES UNDER SHRTWV RDG WL DOMINATE AND BRING A MOSUNNY DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES ON LLVL MSTR...WITH THE GFS ON THE
DRIER END OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM AND THE NAM ON THE WETTER END. GIVEN
THE OBSVD DRYNESS OF THE 12Z GRB RAOB AND THE LGT SYNOPTIC SE FLOW
THAT WL DOMINATE THRU TMRW AND MAINTAIN THIS DRY AIR...PREFER THE
GFS FCST. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH UP TO 12-13C...AND DEEP MIXING
TO H75 ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS ARPCHG 80 AWAY FM LK
MODERATION. THIS DEEP MIXING WOULD DROP SFC DWPTS INTO THE UPR
30S...LOWERING MIN RH TOWARD 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...SFC WINDS WL BE
LIGHT UNDER HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN LK SUP...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WL BE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE LGT SE SYNOPTIC FLOW WL FAVOR LK
MODERATION OFF LK MI INTO THE SCENTRAL...BUT LK BREEZES WL DVLP OFF
LK SUP ALSO AND BRING MODERATION TO AREAS MAINLY FM THE KEWEENAW AND
E.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
UPPER MI WILL BE PINNED BETWEEN THE 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
AND ANOTHER LOW ACROSS MO. OUR AREA WILL INITIALLY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE S LOW...WITH CLOUDS STREAMING N INTO S CENTRAL
UPPER MI. THE OPENING WAVE WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH E UPPER MI FROM
12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE LOW 80S. 850MB TEMPS
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 12-13C. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE SE...AND
AFTERNOON CU.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODEL SPECTRUM FOR TEMPS GIVES ANYWHERE FROM
52-75F AS REALISTIC VALUES. WITH WINDS OFF LAKE MI...HAVE BROUGHT
DOWN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT AM HESITANT ON DROPPING BELOW THE
MID 60S. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS EXPECTED...IT SHOULDN/T BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON FAR E. AS WITH TEMPS...THE TRACK OF THE BROAD SFC LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. IT SHOULD BE SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND E MN AT
06Z THURSDAY. THEN BY 18Z THURSDAY THE LOW MAY BE OVER FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR /ECMWF/...OR CENTRAL ONTARIO /NAM/...OR E ONTARIO S OF
JAMES BAY /GFS/. EVEN WITH ALL THIS THE QPF ISN/T TOO DIFFERENT.
WENT WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS...EXCLUDING THE 09/00Z CANADIAN WHICH
WAS MUCH SLOWER. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AT
00Z SATURDAY...THE GFS STILL HAD THE SFC LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SFC HIGH AND 500MB RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT E ON SATURDAY...MAKING
WAY FOR THE LOW STRETCHED ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEAR
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 500MB LOW SKIMMING THE S CANADIAN BORDER
OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO PUSH NE INTO MANITOBA ON
SUNDAY /QUICKER ON THE ECMWF/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
WITH HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WILL DOMINATE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE
MARINE LAYER THRU THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS
NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
310 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RDGS OVER THE W AND ALONG THE E COAST. SFC HI
PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS UNDER A WEAK SHRTWV RDG ROTATING E THRU
THE TROF AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS /PWAT
ARND 0.35 INCH...ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ ARE BRINGING MOSUNNY
CONDITIONS TO THE CWA THIS AFTN. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LO 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK MODERATION. THERE ARE 2
SHRTWVS OF INTEREST UPSTREAM EMBEDDED IN THE UPR TROF. THE FIRST IS
MOVING E NEAR LK WINNIPEG...AND THE OTHER IS DIGGING SEWD THRU
SASKATCHEWAN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS ON MON ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE NOW IN
SASKATCHEWAN.
TNGT...SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG AND ACCOMPANYING DEEPER MSTR ARE
PROGGED TO MOVE E THRU ONTARIO N OF LK SUP TNGT...WITH LTL IMPACT ON
UPR MI. SFC HI PRES RDG IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE UPR LKS TO THE
S OF THIS PASSING SHRTWV. BUT SOME HI CLDS/A BIT HIER PWAT OVER 0.5
INCH NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE WLY
FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E...WHERE
THE DEEP DRIER AIR WL LINGER LONGER.
MON...SHRTWV NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO SWING ESEWD THRU
THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW LTL
RESPONSE IN THE MSLP FIELD OVE THE AREA...WITH SFC HI PRES RDG STILL
DOMINATING...THERE WL BE LTL IF ANY MSTR INFLOW FOR THIS DISTURBANCE
TO TAP. CONSIDERING THE ABSENCE OF MSTR INFLOW...WEAK DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC...MINIMAL HGT FALLS...AND MARGINAL MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...MOST OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS GENERATE LTL IF ANY PCPN
ACRS UPR MI...MAINLY ACRS THE WRN CWA WHERE FCST SDNGS SHOW MORE
MOISTENING AND KINX RISING TO 25 TO 30. FCST SNDGS FARTHER E SHOW A
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS PERSISTING THRU THE DAY WITH ONLY SOME
MID/HI CLDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE. GOING FCST SHOWING SCHC
POPS OVER THE WRN CWA APPEARS ON TRACK. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT
ARND 9C AND SOME CLDS...MAX TEMPS NOT FAR FM 70 SEEM RSNBL. WEAK
PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW LK BREEZES TO FORM AND LOWER TEMPS NEAR THE
LK SHORES. THE MOST PRONOUNCED LK COOLING WL COME OFF LK MI WITH LGT
SE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE HIEST TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
E...WHERE THE CLDS WL BE THINNER AND LLVL ESE FLOW WL LACK LAKE
MODERATION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND
SFC SFC RIDGE SIT OVER THE CWA. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP COME WED
INTO THU NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS GETS SHEARED APART AND MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER ON WED WHEN LOOKING AT CONSENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT AFTER WED MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARD TO THE
STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF THE TWO FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN
WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ON OR AROUND
THU/THU NIGHT THAN WITH THE SHEARED OFF LOW MOVING TO THE SE OF THE
CWA WED/WED NIGHT. CUT BACK SOME ON POPS ON WED. THINK THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT/THU COVERED THIS SCENARIO WELL...SO WILL NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO IT.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST OF FRI AND SAT WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. SUN WILL SEE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS MODEL INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH A SFC LOW MOVING N OF THE CWA WHILE DRAGGING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
A HI PRES RDG AND LLVL DRY AIR WL DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AND
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH A
DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FM THE W MAY BRING SOME MID/HI CLDS TO THE AREA
ON MON AND PERHAPS A SHOWER TO IWD...THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
LOWER CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WL DOMINATE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER THRU FRI. BEST CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 20 KTS WILL
BE LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SHARPER GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
108 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CLOSED LO
OVER CENTRAL CANADA JUST W OF HUDSON BAY. UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT
H3 JET MAX OVER NW ONTARIO RIDING TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LO
IN CONCERT WITH BAND OF DEEP MSTR/H85-7 FGEN TO THE W OF SFC COLD
FNT STRETCHING ACRS THE WCENTRAL CWA IS CAUSING NMRS SHOWERS OVER
THE WRN CWA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC FNT. DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z GRB RAOB LIMITED THE SHRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT
THRU THE MRNG AND HAS CONTINUED TO DO SO OVER THE ERN CWA...BUT
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING THAT LIFTED TEMPS TOWARD 80 OVER THE
SCENTRAL AND ARRIVAL OF MOISTER AIR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB IN
THE SW LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT THAT LIFTED MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG
CAUSED CONVECTION TO INCRS EARLIER IN THE AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL ZNS
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FNT. MODEST DEEP LYR SHEAR/MID LVL LAPSE RATES
LIMITED THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
DROPPED SOME HVY RA. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS HAS
DIMINISHED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS...ANOTHER LARGER BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND SOME TS ARE LIFTING NEWD THRU NE WI TOWARD HIER
LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE SCENTRAL. THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FNT...THE NNW WIND OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS...AND THE
PCPN HAS DROPPED TEMPS AS LO AS ARND 50 OVER THE WRN CWA. FARTHER TO
THE W...DRIER AIR WITH PWAT UNDER 0.50 INCH IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS/NW MN. SKIES ARE CLR-PCLDY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU UNDER LLVL
THERMAL TROF IN THESE AREAS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TREND OF POPS TNGT AND THEN
FCST TEMPS/MIN RH ON SUN AS DRY HI PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
TNGT...AS THE UPR FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE W ON THE SRN FLANK OF
CLOSED LO TRACKING E INTO HUDSON BAY...DRIER AIR WL OVERSPREAD UPR
MI FM THE W. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET
ROTATING NEWD IN ONTARIO ARND THE CLOSED LO WL LIFT TO THE NE WITH
THE UPR JET CORE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD
CAUSE THE BANDS OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH/LINGERING TS TO END THRU THE
NGT AS THEY SPREAD TO THE E. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE W
CLOSER TO CORE OF INCOMING DRY AIRMASS/ PWAT CLOSE TO 0.33 INCH AND
TRAILING SFC HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/ LIGHTER WINDS. CONSIDERED
ADDING SOME FOG INTO THE FCST FOR THIS AREA WHERE SOME MDT RAIN FELL
TODAY AND IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING UNDER THE MID LVL
DRYING...BUT OPTED NOT TO CONSIDERING SOME FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DRYING
FCST IN THE H95-9 LYR UNDER STEADY H95-9 WIND TO THE E OF APRCHG HI
PRES CENTER THAT IS FCST TO REACH NEAR DULUTH BY 12Z SUN.
SUN...ANY LINGERING CLDS OVER THE SE CWA EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME DIURNAL CU AS HI PRES/
CORE OF DRIER AIR SHIFT OVHD. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO PEAK BTWN 8C
AND 9C...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RISE UP TO 75 OVER THE INTERIOR. LK
BREEZES WL PUSH INLAND OFF MAINLY LK SUP WITH NNW H925 FLOW TO THE S
OF SFC HI PRES BLDG OVER LK SUP IN THE AFTN...RESULTING IN COOLER WX
THERE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FCST N WIND APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG TO
ALLOW MUCH LK MI MODERATION. DEEP MIXING TO H75-8 WL RESULT IN SFC
DEWPTS FALLING INTO THE UPR 20S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTN...WITH
MIN RH BOTTOMING OUT TOWARD 20 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT IN THE AFTN WHERE THE RH WL BE LOWEST AWAY FM LK SUP
MODERATION OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...MITIGATING FIRE WX CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A 1020MB SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS W TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE DAY MON. MODELS SHOW DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE 550-450MB
LAYER...WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLY RESULTING FROM THIS
LAYER AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. HOWEVER...THE SFC HIGH WILL KEEP VERY
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE FROM MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THE ONE EXCEPTION
POINTED TO BY MODELS IS OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI (WHICH WILL BE ON THE
WRN SIDE THE SFC LOW BY MON MORNING) WHERE A THINK RIBBON OF HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN (1000-700MB RH AROUND 70 PERCENT)...THIS
AREA COULD SEE A GREATER AMOUNT OF PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD POPS AS HIGH AS 40 PERCENT CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. LOWERED THE POPS OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN UPPER MI DUE TO
THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND E.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUE...WITH A SFC RIDGE STAYING OVER THE CWA INTO WED.
THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUE.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WED THROUGH SAT...BUT MAINLY WED INTO FRI AS
MODELS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGING WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF BOTH SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE THE DETAILS OF THE PHASING OF THESE
SYSTEM AS WELL. THE GFS IS ON THE WETTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THE GEM AND
ECMWF SHOW LESS PHASING OF THE SYSTEM AND KEEP THE CWA DRIER THROUGH
THE TIME PERIOD. USED A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH RESULTED
IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU. WHILE STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO LOW LEVEL PATTERN DIFFERENCES...FRI AND SAT HAVE
LOWER PRECIP CHANCE THANKS TO INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
DRIER AIR TO THE W AND NW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BROUGHT
CONDITIONS UP TO VFR AT KCMX AND AT KSAW. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OVERNIGHT DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND
WET GROUND FROM YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL. KIWD HAS ALREADY SEEN LIFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP DUE TO FOG. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH THE
FOG WILL EXPAND AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD WORK TO
DISPERSE THE FOG. FOR NOW...OPTED TO ONLY INCLUDE FOG AT KIWD WITH
IMPROVEMENT THERE LATER IN THE NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
ALL TERMINALS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SO
WINDS THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS. FOG WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT ONCE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVES IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
303 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK, SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT, AND TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK, WITH SHOWERS AND
THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY. WE
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
245 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER, CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
NORTHEAST AND IS NOW INTO WESTERN NY AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN OHIO
THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS (THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT ARE RUNNING 25 TO 30 DEGREES RIGHT NOW), HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS WELL IN
LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
THAN THE ARW OR THE NMM. I LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER`S IDEA OF
SHOWING THE HIGHEST POPS STILL IN THE FINGER LAKES BUT I DID BUMP
UP POPS INTO THE 80%+ RANGE HERE GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 0Z IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY ALONG OR WEST OF I-81
AFFAIR. AFTER 0Z AS OUR COLUMN MOISTENS, RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST SLOWLY AND AT SOME POINT, MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
RAIN TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR THE MORE APPRECIABLE RAINS WILL BE IN
THE FINGER LAKES, WITH A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN AMOUNTS THE
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST YOU LIVE FROM THIS LOCATION. AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM LATE EVENING ON AS PWATS
CLIMB FROM UNDER AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES. WE CAN CERTAINLY HANDLE
THIS RAIN IN MOST CASES AS WE HAVE BEEN VERY DRY LATELY. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE CATSKILLS, BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. I LEFT IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER (ISOLATED)
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST PA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GENERAL WEAKNESS EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS CHANCES AROUND ESPECIALLY FOR NEPA
AND THE CATSKILLS, WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL NY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD IS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE, TO VARYING DEGREES, SHOW
THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. WHILE NO MAJOR TRIGGERS ARE
NEARBY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR
AROUND AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
US. THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMING LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE DAY AS A CUT OFF LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND
WE GET CLOSER TO SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STILL IT APPEARS THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN, BEYOND TONIGHT, MAY BE AT THE TAIL END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTS THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM. WV
CURRENTLY TRACKING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WL EVENTUALLY CLOSE
OFF OVR THE SRN PLAINS WITH SW FLOW OVER US. THIS WL SHOOT S/WVS
OVR THE CWA AT RANDOM LEADING TO MOSTLY HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITH THE MOST LKLY TIME FOR PCPN TO FALL DRG DIURNAL HTG.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE FRI NGT WITH BEST CHC FOR TSTMS EXPECTED
FRI AFTN.
SFC HIPRES LOOKS AS THO IT WL BUILD IN SAT MRNG WITH ANOTHER NICE
WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE ON TAP WITH 585 HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO AREA.
TEMPS DRG THE EXTNDD WL BE IN THE 70S AND NR 80F WHICH IS A FEW
DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AND EXPECT BROKEN
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD 00Z TONIGHT. LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED
INTO WESTERN PA AND NY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST BUT ERODING AS THEY DO. THUS HAVE JUST TEMPO`D IN MVFR
SHOWERS AT ELM BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z AND THEN BECOMING PREDOMINANT
AFTER 01Z. SEE SPECIFIC TAF FORECASTS FOR TIMING FOR EACH
TERMINAL. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY TSRA AS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS SHOWERS HEAD EAST. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO NARROW
DOWN TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSRA FOR THIS EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY AS WAVE WEAKENS. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS
THOUGH IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT NORTHERN
SITES OF RME AND SYR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z MONDAY.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ESE FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON AFTN-THU...VFR MOST OF THE TIME...BUT SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE FROM SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS.
THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT STALLED OUT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WILL FALL APART THIS MORNING... AS A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVERTAKES THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRON OVER SOUTHWESTERN NC AND
UPSTATE SC TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SURFACE TO
925MB...WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DYING MCV
OVER EASTERN TN...ALONG WITH THE 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE (PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS)...MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFTING TOWARD THE
TRIAD BY SUNRISE. THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER RAISES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A SHARP GRADIENT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST...EXPECT CAPE TO DROP OFF RATHER
QUICKLY FROM US HWY 1 EAST. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DYING MCV AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LATER IN THE EVENING...A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO AN MCS/SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL
WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS SHOW THIS CONVERGENCE
LINE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH PW ABOVE 1.5
INCHES. WITH WINDS STAYING STIRRED OVERNIGHT AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING MID-LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
RAP HODOGRAPHS SHOW SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 150-200 M2/S2 OF 0-3KM SRH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
SPC HAS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN 2 PERCENT PROS FOR TORNADOES...IN
ADDITIONAL TO A GENERAL WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...ITS STILL NOT CERTAIN
HOW STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL BE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LATE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FILLING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER AS A TROUGH AND
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS DIFFER REGARDING WHERE
EXACTLY THE BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE...BUT THERE
IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE FROM
THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WIND FIELDS WILL REMAN WEAK ON MONDAY...SO THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE SMALL AND CONVECTION MORE PULSE-LIKE. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGINNING TO STEEPEN
MONDAY NIGHT...YIELDING SOME ELEVATED CAPE THAT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A WARM... MOIST... AND VOLATILE COLUMN WILL
PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CLOSED LOW SITTING NEAR THE WRN MO/AR
BORDER PUSHES SLOW NE TO IL BY DAYBREAK WED (ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A
TAD SLOWER)... AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER NC WILL START TO GIVE
WAY TO LIGHT SSW FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE SLIPS JUST TO OUR EAST.
NEVERTHELESS... THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STAY VERY WEAK... SO DON`T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THAT SAID... WE`LL
START THE DAY WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000
J/KG ACCORDING TO BOTH THE NAM AND GFS... AND WITH PW VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE OVER 150% OF NORMAL... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO FORCE
SCATTERED PULSE AND MULTICELL CONVECTION EVEN IN THE MORNING AS CINH
RAPIDLY DISAPPEARS WITH HEATING. BY AFTERNOON THE SBCAPE JUMPS TO
1500-2500 J/KG (LOWEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE THE SUBCLOUD LAYER
SHOULD BE DRIER/DEEPER... ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BRING ABOUT BETTER
DCAPE)... AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY
FORMING ON OUTFLOW OR SEA BREEZE FEATURES... MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CWA... ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE AND STORM LIFETIMES
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING FEATURES AND WEAK
WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN. HIGHS 89-93 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THICKNESSES. CONVECTION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET... ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MARGINAL
TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT... MAINLY
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE PW VALUES REMAIN OVER 150% OF
NORMAL... WHILE DRIER AIR SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT... HIGHEST EAST... WITH LOW TO NO
CHANCES WEST. CONTINUE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS 67-72.
FOR WED-SAT: THE UPPER LOW NEAR STL EARLY WED WILL CONTINUE TO GET
PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING MT/ND/SD... WITH
THE FORMER FEATURE BECOMING WEAKER AND N-S ELONGATED AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THU NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH WILL IMPROVE OVER THE FAR
WRN CWA BUT REMAIN MARGINAL (JUST 20-25 KTS) FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...
WHILE CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS WILL STAY WITHIN A POOR WIND FIELD
REGIME. BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE (BUT
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EAST) AND THE GFS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BOTH WED/THU AFTERNOONS... WITH LINGERING MARGINAL CAPE
AND WEAK CINH OVERNIGHT INTO EACH MORNING. EXPECT THE HIGHEST
CONVECTION COVERAGE OF THE WEEK TO OCCUR ON THESE TWO DAYS. THE
WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FRI (EARLY DAY ON THE FASTER GFS AND LATE DAY ON
THE SLOWER ECMWF)... WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
INTO THE ERN CWA FOR FRI... WITH LOW COVERAGE ON SAT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. (THIS ASSUMES THAT THE GFS`S
DEPICTION OF AN INTENSE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAX PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NRN WV/MD FRI-SAT IS A FEEDBACK ARTIFACT
AND CAN BE SET ASIDE... ALTHOUGH WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL IN LATER FORECASTS.) WILL SHIFT POPS TO MAINLY EAST
ON FRI... WITH JUST 10-20% CHANCES SAT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN NEAR-
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM DAY TO DAY... WITH THICKNESSES HOLDING JUST
ABOVE NORMAL... WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE... WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S... AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DRIFTING TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COASTAL AREAS. A WEAK WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NC AND
UPSTATE SC WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING AS A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF
THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME WEAK ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC
IS LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FOOTHILLS OF NC. WHILE THE SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED WELL WEST OF KINT
AND KGSO...IFR STRATUS HAS SPREAD TO KINT AND IS STILL POSSIBLE AT
KGSO. EXPECT SHOWERS TO FINALLY REACH KINT AND KGSO BY AROUND 14-
15Z...AND CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REDEVELOP.
CONTINUED MOISTENING OVER WESTERN NC AND A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THIS MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
MUCH LESS FROM KRDU TO KRWI AND KFAY. OF THESE THREE SITES...THE
PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE HIGHEST AT KRDU...BUT WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY THIS WEEK...MORE SO OVER EASTERN NC ON MONDAY THEN
SCATTERED ABOUT MOST OF CENTRAL NC EACH DAY THEREAFTER. THERE WILL
ALSO BE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT STALLED OUT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WILL FALL APART THIS MORNING... AS A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVERTAKES THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRON OVER SOUTHWESTERN NC AND
UPSTATE SC TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SURFACE TO
925MB...WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DYING MCV
OVER EASTERN TN...ALONG WITH THE 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE (PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS)...MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFTING TOWARD THE
TRIAD BY SUNRISE. THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER RAISES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A SHARP GRADIENT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST...EXPECT CAPE TO DROP OFF RATHER
QUICKLY FROM US HWY 1 EAST. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DYING MCV AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LATER IN THE EVENING...A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO AN MCS/SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL
WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS SHOW THIS CONVERGENCE
LINE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH PW ABOVE 1.5
INCHES. WITH WINDS STAYING STIRRED OVERNIGHT AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING MID-LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
RAP HODOGRAPHS SHOW SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 150-200 M2/S2 OF 0-3KM SRH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
SPC HAS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN 2 PERCENT PROS FOR TORNADOES...IN
ADDITIONAL TO A GENERAL WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...ITS STILL NOT CERTAIN
HOW STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL BE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LATE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FILLING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER AS A TROUGH AND
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS DIFFER REGARDING WHERE
EXACTLY THE BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE...BUT THERE
IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE FROM
THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WIND FIELDS WILL REMAN WEAK ON MONDAY...SO THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE SMALL AND CONVECTION MORE PULSE-LIKE. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGINNING TO STEEPEN
MONDAY NIGHT...YIELDING SOME ELEVATED CAPE THAT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A WARM... MOIST... AND VOLATILE COLUMN WILL
PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CLOSED LOW SITTING NEAR THE WRN MO/AR
BORDER PUSHES SLOW NE TO IL BY DAYBREAK WED (ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A
TAD SLOWER)... AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER NC WILL START TO GIVE
WAY TO LIGHT SSW FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE SLIPS JUST TO OUR EAST.
NEVERTHELESS... THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STAY VERY WEAK... SO DON`T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THAT SAID... WE`LL
START THE DAY WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000
J/KG ACCORDING TO BOTH THE NAM AND GFS... AND WITH PW VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE OVER 150% OF NORMAL... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO FORCE
SCATTERED PULSE AND MULTICELL CONVECTION EVEN IN THE MORNING AS CINH
RAPIDLY DISAPPEARS WITH HEATING. BY AFTERNOON THE SBCAPE JUMPS TO
1500-2500 J/KG (LOWEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE THE SUBCLOUD LAYER
SHOULD BE DRIER/DEEPER... ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BRING ABOUT BETTER
DCAPE)... AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY
FORMING ON OUTFLOW OR SEA BREEZE FEATURES... MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CWA... ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE AND STORM LIFETIMES
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING FEATURES AND WEAK
WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN. HIGHS 89-93 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THICKNESSES. CONVECTION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET... ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MARGINAL
TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT... MAINLY
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE PW VALUES REMAIN OVER 150% OF
NORMAL... WHILE DRIER AIR SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT... HIGHEST EAST... WITH LOW TO NO
CHANCES WEST. CONTINUE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS 67-72.
FOR WED-SAT: THE UPPER LOW NEAR STL EARLY WED WILL CONTINUE TO GET
PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING MT/ND/SD... WITH
THE FORMER FEATURE BECOMING WEAKER AND N-S ELONGATED AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THU NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH WILL IMPROVE OVER THE FAR
WRN CWA BUT REMAIN MARGINAL (JUST 20-25 KTS) FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...
WHILE CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS WILL STAY WITHIN A POOR WIND FIELD
REGIME. BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE (BUT
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EAST) AND THE GFS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BOTH WED/THU AFTERNOONS... WITH LINGERING MARGINAL CAPE
AND WEAK CINH OVERNIGHT INTO EACH MORNING. EXPECT THE HIGHEST
CONVECTION COVERAGE OF THE WEEK TO OCCUR ON THESE TWO DAYS. THE
WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FRI (EARLY DAY ON THE FASTER GFS AND LATE DAY ON
THE SLOWER ECMWF)... WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
INTO THE ERN CWA FOR FRI... WITH LOW COVERAGE ON SAT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. (THIS ASSUMES THAT THE GFS`S
DEPICTION OF AN INTENSE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAX PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NRN WV/MD FRI-SAT IS A FEEDBACK ARTIFACT
AND CAN BE SET ASIDE... ALTHOUGH WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL IN LATER FORECASTS.) WILL SHIFT POPS TO MAINLY EAST
ON FRI... WITH JUST 10-20% CHANCES SAT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN NEAR-
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM DAY TO DAY... WITH THICKNESSES HOLDING JUST
ABOVE NORMAL... WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE... WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S... AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DRIFTING TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL
AREAS. A WEAK WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NC AND UPSTATE SC
WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING AS A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOW
LEVELS AND SOME WEAK ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC WILL
LEAD TO SOME STRATUS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. BASED ON NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AT KINT AND KGSO BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. AFTER
14Z...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AT AROUND 3500
FT. CONTINUED MOISTENING OVER WESTERN NC AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
MUCH LESS FROM KRDU TO KRWI AND KFAY. OF THESE THREE SITES...THE
PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE HIGHEST AT KRDU...BUT WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY THIS WEEK...MORE SO OVER EASTERN NC ON MONDAY THEN
SCATTERED ABOUT MOST OF CENTRAL NC EACH DAY THEREAFTER. THERE WILL
ALSO BE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT STALLED OUT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WILL FALL APART THIS MORNING... AS A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVERTAKES THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRON OVER SOUTHWESTERN NC AND
UPSTATE SC TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SURFACE TO
925MB...WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DYING MCV
OVER EASTERN TN...ALONG WITH THE 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE (PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS)...MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFTING TOWARD THE
TRIAD BY SUNRISE. THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER RAISES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A SHARP GRADIENT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST...EXPECT CAPE TO DROP OFF RATHER
QUICKLY FROM US HWY 1 EAST. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DYING MCV AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LATER IN THE EVENING...A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO AN MCS/SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL
WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS SHOW THIS CONVERGENCE
LINE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH PW ABOVE 1.5
INCHES. WITH WINDS STAYING STIRRED OVERNIGHT AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. RAP HODOGRAPHS SHOW
SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 150-200
M2/S2 OF 0-3KM SRH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. SPC HAS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT IN 2 PERCENT PROS FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITIONAL TO A
GENERAL WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...ITS STILL NOT CERTAIN HOW STRONG
UPDRAFTS WILL BE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LATE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST THE SOUTHERN END OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY. THE BEST JET
SUPPORT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD BE NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...
WITH AN INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING OVER 1.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...TO RESULT
IN SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ALSO SUGGEST THE LIFT AND
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TEND TO WEAKEN WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION...SUCH THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FROM U.S. 1 WEST. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS MOISTENING
THEN...BUT THOSE SAME SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDER. FARTHER WEST...LAPSE RATES ARE BETTER...BUT ONLY TO 6C/KM
OR SO...AND LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY A DEGREE OR THREE
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE AT OR BELOW 400J/KG OVERALL.
WITH THIS IN MIND...ALONG WITH ONLY MODEST 850MB WINDS...WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
HIGHS SATURDAY 80 TO 85 OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS IN GENERAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.
THE NAM AND THE GFS TEND TO DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AND WITH HPC SUGGESTING A BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS COMPARED
TO THE NAM FOR THE 12Z CYCLE HAVE LEANED MUCH MORE TOWARD THE GFS
FOR THE FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DRY THE MEAN AIR
MASS QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THIS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS ESSENTIALLY CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. EVEN THE NAM...WITH
ITS DIFFERENCES FROM THE GFS...SHOWS K INDICES FALLING GREATLY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AFTER
A LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE MID-LEVELS WARMING SUPPORTING A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR
IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
AND THEN...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALWAYS HESITATE TO REMOVE CHANCES SO MUCH...BUT THE
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM U.S. 1 ON WEST ARE SO DRY AND
CAPPED IT IS DIFFICULT NOT TO AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE POPS THERE ARE
VERY LOW AS WELL. AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S...
HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH A 90 POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A WARM... MOIST... AND VOLATILE COLUMN WILL
PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CLOSED LOW SITTING NEAR THE WRN MO/AR
BORDER PUSHES SLOW NE TO IL BY DAYBREAK WED (ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A
TAD SLOWER)... AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER NC WILL START TO GIVE
WAY TO LIGHT SSW FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE SLIPS JUST TO OUR EAST.
NEVERTHELESS... THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STAY VERY WEAK... SO DON`T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THAT SAID... WE`LL
START THE DAY WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000
J/KG ACCORDING TO BOTH THE NAM AND GFS... AND WITH PW VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE OVER 150% OF NORMAL... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO FORCE
SCATTERED PULSE AND MULTICELL CONVECTION EVEN IN THE MORNING AS CINH
RAPIDLY DISAPPEARS WITH HEATING. BY AFTERNOON THE SBCAPE JUMPS TO
1500-2500 J/KG (LOWEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE THE SUBCLOUD LAYER
SHOULD BE DRIER/DEEPER... ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BRING ABOUT BETTER
DCAPE)... AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY
FORMING ON OUTFLOW OR SEA BREEZE FEATURES... MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CWA... ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE AND STORM LIFETIMES
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING FEATURES AND WEAK
WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN. HIGHS 89-93 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THICKNESSES. CONVECTION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET... ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MARGINAL
TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT... MAINLY
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE PW VALUES REMAIN OVER 150% OF
NORMAL... WHILE DRIER AIR SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT... HIGHEST EAST... WITH LOW TO NO
CHANCES WEST. CONTINUE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS 67-72.
FOR WED-SAT: THE UPPER LOW NEAR STL EARLY WED WILL CONTINUE TO GET
PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING MT/ND/SD... WITH
THE FORMER FEATURE BECOMING WEAKER AND N-S ELONGATED AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THU NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH WILL IMPROVE OVER THE FAR
WRN CWA BUT REMAIN MARGINAL (JUST 20-25 KTS) FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...
WHILE CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS WILL STAY WITHIN A POOR WIND FIELD
REGIME. BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE (BUT
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EAST) AND THE GFS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BOTH WED/THU AFTERNOONS... WITH LINGERING MARGINAL CAPE
AND WEAK CINH OVERNIGHT INTO EACH MORNING. EXPECT THE HIGHEST
CONVECTION COVERAGE OF THE WEEK TO OCCUR ON THESE TWO DAYS. THE
WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FRI (EARLY DAY ON THE FASTER GFS AND LATE DAY ON
THE SLOWER ECMWF)... WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
INTO THE ERN CWA FOR FRI... WITH LOW COVERAGE ON SAT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. (THIS ASSUMES THAT THE GFS`S
DEPICTION OF AN INTENSE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAX PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NRN WV/MD FRI-SAT IS A FEEDBACK ARTIFACT
AND CAN BE SET ASIDE... ALTHOUGH WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL IN LATER FORECASTS.) WILL SHIFT POPS TO MAINLY EAST
ON FRI... WITH JUST 10-20% CHANCES SAT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN NEAR-
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM DAY TO DAY... WITH THICKNESSES HOLDING JUST
ABOVE NORMAL... WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE... WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S... AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DRIFTING TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL
AREAS. A WEAK WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NC AND UPSTATE SC
WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING AS A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOW
LEVELS AND SOME WEAK ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC WILL
LEAD TO SOME STRATUS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. BASED ON NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AT KINT AND KGSO BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. AFTER
14Z...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AT AROUND 3500
FT. CONTINUED MOISTENING OVER WESTERN NC AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
MUCH LESS FROM KRDU TO KRWI AND KFAY. OF THESE THREE SITES...THE
PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE HIGHEST AT KRDU...BUT WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY THIS WEEK...MORE SO OVER EASTERN NC ON MONDAY THEN
SCATTERED ABOUT MOST OF CENTRAL NC EACH DAY THEREAFTER. THERE WILL
ALSO BE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST MAKING THEIR WAY EAST TOWARDS
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
THAT WERE MOVING EAST AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE
SHOWERS. EVERY SO OFTEN THERE IS A LIGHTNING STRIKE WITH THE
SHOWERS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
...VERY LITTLE ALTERED FOR THIS UPDATE...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE EVENING WAS TO THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AS SOON AS 9 PM. THEREFORE...INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EXPANDED PRECIP CHANCES EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE LATEST HRRR RUN AND 22 UTC RAP INDICATE THIS AREA OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AS OF 20 UTC...THE SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS WEAK...WITH RATHER LOW COVERAGE OF WEAK CONVECTION
EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INTO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES
EMBEDDED ALOFT IN ZONAL TURNING TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET POSITIONED ACROSS THE
AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...FOCUSED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY. AGAIN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK...AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE...A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC SUITE WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
QUASI-ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ON-AGAIN AND OFF-AGAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
APPEAR TO BE MID-WEEK AND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
LINGERING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY
SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN INCOMING S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. AFTER
THIS...MONDAY DAYTIME LOOKS DRY.
ANOTHER S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MATERIALIZES AND DEVELOPS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA
EAST-NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED OPEN WAVE S/WV TROUGH PUSHING
EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES LOW IF ANY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DECENT AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL IN THE 60S AND 70S THEN SHOULD WARM
THURSDAY-SATURDAY BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THUS HAVE VCSH MENTION. LATER ON SUNDAY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND HAVE MENTION OF VCTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
912 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST REACHING ILLINOIS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SMALL BAND OF SCT SHRA OVER CRAWFORD CO PA INTO EXTREME NE OH
REFUSES TO GIVE UP SO EXTENDED SMALL POP FOR THAT AREA ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO.
TONIGHT THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LIFT NORTH A BIT AND
LOOSE INFLUENCE ON THE AREA. THIS WILL OPEN THE AREA UP TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LOW. BASED ON RUC AND LIMITED HRRR DATA ALONG WITH
18Z GFS...THINK THE EARLIEST ANY RAIN WOULD REACH THE SW PART OF THE
CWA SHOULD BE 11Z OR LATER. THUS ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE NIGHT HOURS
DOWN SO POP ONLY GET UP TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY 11Z
DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED ALL BUT THE FAR EAST TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PART CLOUDY THIS EVENING. DECREASE OF THE CLOUDS
LOOKS TO BE ENDING WITH NEXT PUSH OF HIGHER CLOUDS IN INDIANA AND SW
OH PUSHING TOWARD THE CWA.
AS FOR TEMPS...COOL STARTING POINT THIS EVENING AND DECREASED CLOUDS
HAVE LEAD TO TRENDING TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER DEG OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EAST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TUESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI JUST EAST OF THE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM. A
WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
OPENS. LOOKING AT THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND WINDS THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO/THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WILL START TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS BASICALLY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM HOLMES COUNTY TO MFD TO FDY. EXPANDED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING THE
FAR SOUTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BROUGHT POPS TO CATEGORICAL TUESDAY NIGHT DECREASING TO
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A DIURNAL DECREASE BEFORE INCREASING
BACK UP TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT.
TEMPS SEASONAL TO A FEW ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AT THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NE ACROSS THE AREA...SETTING UP WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO
START WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON MONDAY ALLOWING
A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO SET UP.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SCT TO SKC SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WE COULD GET SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT
STRETCHING EAST FROM THE LOW DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES BY LATE
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST. WILL INTRODUCE PRECIP DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ONLY KERI SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z WED. LIGHT
N TO NE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON TUESDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT
NORTH FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN FOR
MONDAY. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND NORTH OF CHICAGO ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP TIMING BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO EMPLOYED HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION
HOURLY TEMPS TO MANAGE AFTERNOON FLUCTUATIONS CAUSED BY ONSHORE
FLOW/RAIN COOLED AIR/INCREASING SUN WEST.
FULL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PRETTY WELL DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW SHOULD TRAVEL EAST...PROBABLY JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WHICH PUTS THE OVERRUNNING SYNOPTIC TYPE RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY AND STABLE BUT
WITH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT INCLUDING A COUPLED JET...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION TO MOISTEN UP THE LOW LAYERS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. NOT SURE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER. WILL INCLUDE
THUNDER SOUTH...FROM ABOUT ROUTE 30 SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE TRIPLE
POINT...AND ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE IT WILL GET A LITTLE
MORE UNSTABLE. THERE IS DECENT SHEAR BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE IN OR NEAR THE WARM SECTOR...PROBABLY FROM
AROUND PITTSBURGH SOUTH. WILL JUST MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDER
FROM AROUND TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW DEGREES WITH THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AND
WITH THE DEVELOPING ENE SURFACE FLOW IT MAY NOT RECOVER MUCH EXCEPT
ACROSS NW OHIO WHERE THE RAIN WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
BARELY TO 70 WHERE IT STAYS THE CLOUDIEST AND THE RAIN LINGERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TROUGHINESS LINGERS ALOFT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND PA ON
MONDAY AND THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH.
SOME DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS LIKELY BUT IT WILL BE DRY.
HIGHS WILL PROBABLY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ACROSS NW OHIO WHERE THERE
WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. NNE WINS WILL KEEP IT COOLER AT THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE.
AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO COME BOWLING ACROSS THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION. IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY BUT
ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING AND STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO.
HIGHS MAY HOLD IN THE MID 70S ACROSS NO OHIO IF THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARRIVE QUICKLY ENOUGH. UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
BY WEDNESDAY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
SCATTERED AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME THE ACTIVITY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY GET INTO THE LOWER 80S PERHAPS THE MID
80S IF THE SHOWERS CAN HOLD OFF AND WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN SOME
AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NRN OHIO ON
THURSDAY. IT IS A LITTLE TO SOON TO RESOLVE TIMING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE AS THIS
LAST PIECE OF ENERGY PASSES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO START THE DAY AT LEAST SO WILL ONLY GO
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES ALTHOUGH COULD BE WARMER IF WE END UP
WITH MORE SUN. A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A LOW POP...MAINLY IN THE EAST. THE 18/00Z
RUN OF THE GFS TRIES TO SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ON SATURDAY BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF
SO WILL DISREGARD FOR NOW AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SW OHIO WITH 3 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS INTO CENTRAL
PA. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS PA OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS EXTREME EASTERN OHIO IN
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BACK EDGE OF
SHOWER JUST EAST OF TOL/FDY LINE MOVING EAST AT 20-25 KNOTS. MVFR
WITH AREAS OF IFR WITH THE SHOWERS.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF
IFR BR TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEN BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A FAIRLY COMPACT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
TODAY. AS THIS LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH...NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL INCREASE FOR A WINDOW OF TIME TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH WAVES BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE WINDS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.
WE WILL BE CLOSE TO NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THIS EVENING
BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT EVALUATE TRENDS BEFORE ISSUING. THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING WAVES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING ON
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE LAKE.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SETTING UP FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1207 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN FOR
MONDAY. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND NORTH OF CHICAGO ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP TIMING BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO EMPLOYED HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION
HOURLY TEMPS TO MANAGE AFTERNOON FLUCTUATIONS CAUSED BY ONSHORE
FLOW/RAIN COOLED AIR/INCREASING SUN WEST.
FULL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PRETTY WELL DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW SHOULD TRAVEL EAST...PROBABLY JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WHICH PUTS THE OVERRUNNING SYNOPTIC TYPE RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY AND STABLE BUT
WITH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT INCLUDING A COUPLED JET...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION TO MOISTEN UP THE LOW LAYERS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. NOT SURE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER. WILL INCLUDE
THUNDER SOUTH...FROM ABOUT ROUTE 30 SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE TRIPLE
POINT...AND ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE IT WILL GET A LITTLE
MORE UNSTABLE. THERE IS DECENT SHEAR BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE IN OR NEAR THE WARM SECTOR...PROBABLY FROM
AROUND PITTSBURGH SOUTH. WILL JUST MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDER
FROM AROUND TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW DEGREES WITH THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AND
WITH THE DEVELOPING ENE SURFACE FLOW IT MAY NOT RECOVER MUCH EXCEPT
ACROSS NW OHIO WHERE THE RAIN WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
BARELY TO 70 WHERE IT STAYS THE CLOUDIEST AND THE RAIN LINGERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TROUGHINESS LINGERS ALOFT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND PA ON
MONDAY AND THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH.
SOME DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS LIKELY BUT IT WILL BE DRY.
HIGHS WILL PROBABLY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ACROSS NW OHIO WHERE THERE
WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. NNE WINS WILL KEEP IT COOLER AT THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE.
AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO COME BOWLING ACROSS THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION. IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY BUT
ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING AND STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO.
HIGHS MAY HOLD IN THE MID 70S ACROSS NO OHIO IF THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARRIVE QUICKLY ENOUGH. UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
BY WEDNESDAY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
SCATTERED AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME THE ACTIVITY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY GET INTO THE LOWER 80S PERHAPS THE MID
80S IF THE SHOWERS CAN HOLD OFF AND WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN SOME
AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NRN OHIO ON
THURSDAY. IT IS A LITTLE TO SOON TO RESOLVE TIMING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE AS THIS
LAST PIECE OF ENERGY PASSES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO START THE DAY AT LEAST SO WILL ONLY GO
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES ALTHOUGH COULD BE WARMER IF WE END UP
WITH MORE SUN. A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A LOW POP...MAINLY IN THE EAST. THE 18/00Z
RUN OF THE GFS TRIES TO SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ON SATURDAY BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF
SO WILL DISREGARD FOR NOW AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO TODAY WITH AN AREA OF RAIN LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH
MVFR AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT THE SOUTHERN SITES AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE IN.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE RAIN BECOMES MODERATE GIVEN THE
VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT. CEILINGS ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
LOW ARE DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW BUT EXPECT
LESS IFR AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW. RAIN WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS QUICKLY
RETURNING TO VFR.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z GIVEN LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
RAIN.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A FAIRLY COMPACT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
TODAY. AS THIS LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH...NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL INCREASE FOR A WINDOW OF TIME TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH WAVES BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE WINDS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.
WE WILL BE CLOSE TO NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THIS EVENING
BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT EVALUATE TRENDS BEFORE ISSUING. THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING WAVES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING ON
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE LAKE.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SETTING UP FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI TO REACH WESTERN OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO DURING THE DAY AND THEN WEAKEN. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARD MORNING. STARTED WITH A CHANCE IN THE WEST AT 09Z AND HAVE
FDY LIKELY BY 11Z. WEST CLOSE TO MAV TEMP GUIDANCE WEST TONIGHT BUT
BELOW GUIDANCE EAST GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR...HRRR AND RUC GUIDANCE...NOT FINDING MUCH TO
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO BE GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WENT WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY AS LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. CAPES LOWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SO CARRIED
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND THEN DROPPED BACK TO SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW. BEST CAPES EAST HALF ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH NUMBERS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000J/KG SO CONTINUED
WITH THUNDER THERE ALL DAY. LOW MOVES INTO PA IN THE EVENING BUT
BY MORNING MONDAY THE LOW ALTHOUGH WEAKER...WILL STILL BE IN WEST
CENTRAL PA SO WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FAR EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THEN CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEST
HOWEVER SHOULD DRY OUT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE
IN. MONDAY HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FAR EAST JUST GIVEN PROXIMITY
OF THE BETTER MOISTURE BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT A DRY DAY
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MONDAY NIGHT AND UPPER LOW DIGS INTO A
SHARPENING TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE
LOW STRENGTHENS OVER MISSOURI. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROF
DIGGING BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT EAST AT FIRST. DID
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WEST TOWARDS MORNING TUESDAY. FOR THE
DAY TUESDAY...DID GO WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE ADDED MOISTURE AND
THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY CAUSE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY WITH
THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING...THE GFS IS
SLOWER THAN THE CANADIAN MODEL AND THE ECMWF...WENT SOMEWHAT CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS POPS WHICH SIDED WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT. KEPT THE
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...HOWEVER...AS THE TRENDS BECOME
CLEARER...MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE THE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AT 06Z
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL
THE ONSET OF RAIN GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT. CEILINGS
WILL FALL WITH THE RAIN...POSSIBLY DROPPING AS LOW AS IFR FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME AT THE SOUTHERN SITES...FDY/MFD/CAK...THAT ARE CLOSER
TO THE LOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN
SITES AND INCLUDED VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS AT YNG/ERI. RAIN WILL EXIT
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS QUICKLY
RETURNING TO VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OHIO...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER NEAR THE LAKE AT CLE AND ERI TODAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL OH AND SW PA. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. DID GO A LITTLE STRONGER ON THE WIND SPEED FORECAST THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS THREAT FOR AN ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL
KEEP THE LAKE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. A FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY CAUSING A THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
444 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE AS THE WEEKEND
WEARS ON. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY...THEN WILL MOVE NORTH AS WARM FRONT AND LEAVE THE AREA
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM...BOWING MCS DIVING SEWD ACRS GA...BUT THE CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW ALSO IS ENABLING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO FIRE
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. THE N END OF THE MCS BRIEFLY ORGANIZED ACRS THE
SW NC MTNS BUT HAS NOW WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS...A CLUSTER OF FORMERLY DISCRETE CELLS
IS MOVING MORE ELY THAN NLY AS THE BLUE RIDGE CELLS ARE...SUGGESTING
IT IS SEMI-ORGANIZED AND COULD HAVE A COLD POOL. WE ARE BEGINNING TO
BECOME CONCERNED FOR HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS UNDER THE CLUSTER
GIVEN EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING FAST
ENOUGH THAT IT DOES NOT POSE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST FEW HOURS.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS PUSH THE MCS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVIDENTLY SUGGEST AREAS IN ITS WAKE WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER AND A
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THRU THE MORNING AND EVEN
EARLY AFTN. THIS IS SOMEWHAT PLAUSIBLE...BUT IT WOULD HAVE TO
SURVIVE THE DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY IN ORDER TO DO SO. EVEN
IF A LULL OCCURS ANY SUN COMING THRU BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL FUEL MORE
INSTABILITY. SO THERE IS ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FCST
TODAY.
THE BROAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW THAT WILL
CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BLUE RIDGE MAY AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IN A RELATIVELY TYPICAL REGIME. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT
WILL BE PULLED ALONG WITH THAT SFC LOW...COMING ACRS THE NC MTNS BY
EARLY EVENING. CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL EXTEND THE CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO THE
EVENING A BIT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER OPNL NAM
AND SREF PROBS...WHICH IS MUCH LIKE WHAT WE/VE DEALT WITH THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. THOUGH DEEP SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW...THE MIDLEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR 0-3KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES TO REACH 25-30 KT AROUND MIDDAY...WHEN THE FLOW IS
STILL MORE BACKED. SPC HAS INCLUDED A BAND OF 2 PCT TORNADO PROBS IN
THE D1 OTLK JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...EVIDENTLY FOR THIS
REASON. WE WILL LIKELY WATCH RADAR A LITTLE MORE CLOSELY THIS AFTN
FOR ANY SPIN-UPS.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THICKNESSES
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN. SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
TURNS WINDS NWLY...BUT MOIST SFC CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MINS UP...ALSO
BEING NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS....WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE GREAT LAKES. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM REACHES THE EAST COAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA FROM THE W ON MONDAY...AND
APPEARS TO STALL IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING. THE
BOUNDARY THEN LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING
NC BY MONDAY MORNING...AND VA BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON. OUR AREA WILL
THEN BE IN A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THIS FEATURE IS MORE
LIMITED THAN THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST FARTHER WEST...IT SHOULD SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY ON MONDAY HOWEVER. INSTABILITY IS MUCH GREATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE DEPARTING WARM
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
BE OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE LOW FILLS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY
BROAD SHALLOW TROUGHING REMAINS FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH IT. MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS RATHER
LIMITED. UPPER FLOW FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY SATURDAY...WITH WEAK
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
ON WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR
BETWEEN A WARM FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE SOUTHEAST STAYS IN THIS WARM
MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
THE BLUE RIDGE THAT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THERE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FIELD THRU THE
EARLY MRNG. LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS HOWEVER WILL PLAGUE THE PIEDMONT
THRU DAYBREAK. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT IFR. I AM LIKELY TO AMD AGAIN
FOR A TEMPO IF ANY CLOUDS BELOW 010 ARE REPORTED. OVERALL FCST
REMAINS THE SAME AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES TODAY. PASSING S/W TROF
WITH A WEAK SFC LOW WILL PASS ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY PULLING A WEAK
FRONT. THESE FEATURES WILL ENHANCE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE LATE IN THE DAY TO BRING PROB30 RANGE TSRA CHANCES IN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...PERHAPS A LITTLE LATER THAN TYPICAL. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.
ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF CELLS INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS AM...ALONG WITH
REMNANTS OF MCS MOVING EWD. KAND/KAVL ARE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
SOME OF THESE CELLS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND FEATURE TEMPOS FOR
TSRA...WITH THE OTHER SITES NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE WOODS BUT WITH
LOWER CHANCES ONLY WARRANTING VCTS/VCSH. LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS
WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS THRU 13-14Z.
TSRA COULD ACTUALLY LEAD TO SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THEY PASS DUE TO THE
DOWNWARD MOTION PROVIDED BY RAIN. IN GENERAL TRENDS FOR TODAY ARE
SIMILAR TO KCLT...WITH FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PROB30 TSRA
DURING PEAK HEATING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE AGAIN
PROGGED TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG MAY FORM.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z
KCLT HIGH 98% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 92%
KGSP HIGH 89% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 79% MED 78% MED 68% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 91% MED 72% MED 75%
KGMU HIGH 83% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
356 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE AS THE WEEKEND
WEARS ON. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY...THEN WILL MOVE NORTH AS WARM FRONT AND LEAVE THE AREA
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...BOWING MCS DIVING SEWD ACRS GA...BUT THE CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IS ENABLING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO FIRE NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE N END OF THE MCS HAD LOOKED RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OVER
SE TN BUT HAS NOW TAKEN ON A N-S LINEAR STRUCTURE AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MCS...A CLUSTER OF FORMERLY DISCRETE CELLS IS MOVING MORE ELY
THAN NLY AS THE BLUE RIDGE CELLS ARE...SUGGESTING IT IS
SEMI-ORGANIZED AND COULD HAVE A COLD POOL. WE ARE BEGINNING TO
BECOME CONCERNED FOR HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS UNDER THE CLUSTER
GIVEN EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING FAST
ENOUGH THAT IT DOES NOT POSE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST FEW HOURS. THESE TWO ORGANIZED FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FURTHER EWD THRU THE CWFA THIS AM. CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE...WHICH IS
GOOD TO LIMIT FLOOD CONCERNS.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS PUSH THE MCS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVIDENTLY SUGGEST THE AREA WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER AND A LULL IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THRU THE MORNING. THIS IS SOMEWHAT
PLAUSIBLE...BUT IT WOULD HAVE TO SURVIVE THE DIURNAL MINIMUM IN
INSTABILITY IN ORDER TO DO SO. EVEN IF THE LULL OCCURRED IT MIGHT BE
SHORT LIVED WITH SUN COMING THRU BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S FUELING MORE INSTABILITY. SO THERE IS
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FCST TODAY.
THE BROAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW THAT WILL
CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BLUE RIDGE MAY AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IN A RELATIVELY TYPICAL REGIME. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT
WILL BE PULLED ALONG WITH THAT SFC LOW...COMING ACRS THE NC MTNS BY
EARLY EVENING. CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL EXTEND THE CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO THE
EVENING A BIT. WE WILL STILL HAVE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST
CAPE...GIVING US YET ANOTHER DAY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH MOST STORMS WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THICKNESSES
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN. SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
TURNS WINDS NWLY...BUT MOIST SFC CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MINS UP...ALSO
BEING NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS....WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE GREAT LAKES. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM REACHES THE EAST COAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA FROM THE W ON MONDAY...AND
APPEARS TO STALL IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING. THE
BOUNDARY THEN LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING
NC BY MONDAY MORNING...AND VA BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON. OUR AREA WILL
THEN BE IN A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THIS FEATURE IS MORE
LIMITED THAN THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST FARTHER WEST...IT SHOULD SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY ON MONDAY HOWEVER. INSTABILITY IS MUCH GREATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE DEPARTING WARM
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
BE OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE LOW FILLS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY
BROAD SHALLOW TROUGHING REMAINS FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH IT. MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS RATHER
LIMITED. UPPER FLOW FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY SATURDAY...WITH WEAK
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
ON WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR
BETWEEN A WARM FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE SOUTHEAST STAYS IN THIS WARM
MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
THE BLUE RIDGE THAT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THERE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FIELD THRU THE
EARLY MRNG. LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS HOWEVER HAS FORMED JUST TO THE S
AND SW AND MAY EXPAND FURTHER TOWARD THE FIELD. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE
OUT IFR. I AM LIKELY TO AMD FOR A TEMPO IF ANY CLOUDS BELOW 010 ARE
REPORTED. OVERALL FCST REMAINS THE SAME AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES
TODAY. PASSING S/W TROF WITH A WEAK SFC LOW WILL PASS ACRS THE OHIO
VALLEY PULLING A WEAK FRONT. THESE FEATURES WILL ENHANCE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL CONVERGENCE LATE IN THE DAY TO BRING PROB30
RANGE TSRA CHANCES IN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.
ELSEWHERE...MCS WILL SKIRT PAST THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AM...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT OVER OUR AREA IN BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DRIVE DISCRETE CELLS INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. KAND/KAVL ARE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY SOME OF THESE
CELLS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND FEATURE TEMPOS FOR TSRA...WITH THE OTHER
SITES NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE WOODS BUT WITH LOWER CHANCES ONLY
WARRANTING VCTS/VCSH. LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND OVER MOST
OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS AND PERSIST THRU 13-14Z. TSRA COULD
ACTUALLY LEAD TO SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THEY PASS DUE TO THE DOWNWARD
MOTION PROVIDED BY RAIN. IN GENERAL TRENDS FOR TODAY ARE SIMILAR TO
KCLT...WITH FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PROB30 TSRA DURING
PEAK HEATING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE AGAIN PROGGED
TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG MAY FORM.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z
KCLT HIGH 98% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 92%
KGSP HIGH 89% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 79% MED 78% MED 68% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 91% MED 72% MED 75%
KGMU HIGH 83% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1007 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NEXT ROUND IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
LINE EXPANDING AND BLOSSOMING OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURE GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
BELLES
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE FOR EARLY JUNE TRACKING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS GIVES US CAUSE FOR ATTENTION. FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL OVERSPREADING OUR FORECAST
AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ENHANCED
SHEAR CAUSES A CONCERN FOR A TORNADIC POTENTIAL INTO THIS
EVENING.
ON TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LINGERING UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE SHOULD
FINALLY END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.
ON THURSDAY WE MAY CATCH A BREAK FROM THE RAIN...HOWEVER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HEATING AS
ONE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES JUST EAST OF OUR AREA...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BUILD ALOFT INTO OUR REGION...NEVERTHELESS WITH HIGH SOIL MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
BELLES
&&
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
323 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TODAY...WITH A TRAILING FRONT/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONFLICTING SIGNALS REGARDING
SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM AND
RAP SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING IN ERN KY AND SW VA LATER THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS NOTHING. SREF PLUMES OF QPF SHOW A
WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN MEMBERS TODAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MEAN AND
HAVE POPS RISING TO HIGH CHANCES NORTH AFTER 12Z...THEN DECREASING
AFTER 18Z. THERE ARE ALSO BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS
REGARDING HOW UNSTABLE IT WILL BE TODAY. WITH QUITE A BIT OF HIGH
CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...INSTABILITY AND THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY BE LOW. STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW TONIGHT...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT ENDING
ANY PRECIP CHANCES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED IS AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY
OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO HAVE
SOME MINOR DISAGREEMENTS AND WILL BASE THE FORECAST ALONG WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
FOR MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DRY. BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES WITH STREAM OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SCATTERED-BROKEN
COVERAGE OF STORMS ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE.
FOR FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH HAS EXITED THE GREAT LAKES...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF STORMS. FOR SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE...BUT CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW ON
LOCATION OF BOUNDARY.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GFX MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 66 88 68 / 30 10 10 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 64 87 67 / 40 10 10 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 64 86 66 / 30 10 10 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 60 84 60 / 50 20 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST BY 10-11 PM. THEREAFTER...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. AT THAT
TIME...LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE MIDSOUTH...WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG ROTATION AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID EVENING
HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH MAY SEE PULSE TYPE SEVERE
WEATHER EARLY AND POTENTIALLY A STRONGER ORGANIZED LINE OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
SUNDAY...AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
TOMORROW...WHERE THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE
A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. TO THE NORTH A SLIGHTLY COOLER/MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY FILTER IN...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS IN
THIS AREA. THE FRONT WILL WAVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FIRST OVER ARKANSAS BY
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
GET PINCHED OFF OVER THE PLAINS AND BECOME CLOSED ON MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OVER THE OZARKS ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE
SLOWLY MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOW...COUPLED WITH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MEAN A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES. FLASH-FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT. HAVE
LEANED MORE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF ON KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LEFT
IN THE SHORTWAVE`S WAKE...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE NIGHT.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IS HELPING TO PROVIDE AT LEAST
A LITTLE WIND TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. SO FAR NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE AT KMKL AND KTUP AND INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT THOSE SITES. EXPECT KMEM AND KJBR TO REMAIN VFR.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A VFR DAY WITH THE BOUNDARY PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THINK THAT EVEN KTUP WILL ESCAPE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM LIGHT SW TO LIGHT NORTH ON SUNDAY.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1020 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINING WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO THE NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER NOW APPEARS TO
NOT BE OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION TONIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE. A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WE
WILL BE MORE ON THE TAIL END OF THIS LINE...AND CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.
AVIATION...ISOLD TSRAS ACROSS MEXICO HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE BORDER WITH STEERING FLOW...HOWEVER OVERALL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN WEAKENING. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THIS REASON WILL LEAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT LRD.
DUE TO OVERALL CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE WILL NOT INCLUDE TEMPO
GROUP AT LRD. FARTHER NORTH...ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF PEZ-AUS LINE...WHERE INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN WEAK FRONT...MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND SEA-BREEZE
BOUNDARY ARE OCCURRING. MODELS INDICATE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
TONIGHT AND HRRR INDICATING THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD IMPACT THE VCT
AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER 03Z. AFTER MIDNIGHT CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHRAS
POSSIBLY IMPACTING LRD/ALI/CRP OVERNIGHT. ANY TSRA OUT NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE AND UP NEAR VCT THIS EVENING COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE TAIL END OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MID
COAST REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...MID LEVEL INVERSION PROVIDED
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO LIMIT ACTIVITY OVER ALL OF THE
AREA EXCEPT THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TODAY. THE WEAK GRAVITY WAVE
HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA AND DISSIPATED. THE WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY
AND DRIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE 925-850 MB FRONT LOCATED FROM THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO NORTH OF DEL RIO. WITH VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER
COAHUILA WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG. STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS HAVE FORMED WEST OF EAGLE PASS. NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
COULD BRING THESE STORMS INTO THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE 925-850 MB FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT.
MODELS INDICATED DCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE COASTAL BEND. WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
FOR TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS WITH A RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THIS STALLED BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...WEAK GRAVITY WAVE AND APPROACH
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEAKENED THE ONSHORE FLOW SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT WINDS HAVE INCREASED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND WILL
KEEP MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. STORMS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA COULD REACH THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS. BY THURSDAY...590 HIGH OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO MAINTAINS ITS HOLD AS A VORT LOBE ROUNDS THE
NORTHEASTERN PERHIPHERY OF THE HIGH ACROSS NORTH AND EAST TEXAS.
SOME SLIGHT WEAKNESS IS BEING SUGGESTED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA REGION AS THE LOBE MOVES EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER WITH WELL BELOW
SEASONAL PWATS (GENERALLY 1.5 INCHES AND BELOW) AND WARM MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM 20C-26C...WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERAL MID 80S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST REACHING TO NEAR 105 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 91 74 95 77 / 20 30 10 10 10
VICTORIA 74 90 73 92 76 / 40 20 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 99 78 103 78 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 74 95 72 96 74 / 20 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 78 90 78 91 80 / 30 30 10 10 10
COTULLA 73 97 74 101 75 / 30 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 75 93 74 94 76 / 20 30 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 78 89 78 91 80 / 20 40 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
LK/84...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
657 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD TSRAS ACROSS MEXICO HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE BORDER WITH STEERING FLOW...HOWEVER OVERALL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN WEAKENING. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THIS REASON WILL LEAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT LRD.
DUE TO OVERALL CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE WILL NOT INCLUDE TEMPO
GROUP AT LRD. FARTHER NORTH...ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF PEZ-AUS LINE...WHERE INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN WEAK FRONT...MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND SEA-BREEZE
BOUNDARY ARE OCCURRING. MODELS INDICATE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
TONIGHT AND HRRR INDICATING THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD IMPACT THE VCT
AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER 03Z. AFTER MIDNIGHT CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHRAS
POSSIBLY IMPACTING LRD/ALI/CRP OVERNIGHT. ANY TSRA OUT NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE AND UP NEAR VCT THIS EVENING COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE TAIL END OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MID
COAST REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...MID LEVEL INVERSION PROVIDED
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO LIMIT ACTIVITY OVER ALL OF THE
AREA EXCEPT THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TODAY. THE WEAK GRAVITY WAVE
HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA AND DISSIPATED. THE WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY
AND DRIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE 925-850 MB FRONT LOCATED FROM THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO NORTH OF DEL RIO. WITH VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER
COAHUILA WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG. STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS HAVE FORMED WEST OF EAGLE PASS. NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
COULD BRING THESE STORMS INTO THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE 925-850 MB FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT.
MODELS INDICATED DCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE COASTAL BEND. WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
FOR TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS WITH A RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THIS STALLED BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...WEAK GRAVITY WAVE AND APPROACH
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEAKENED THE ONSHORE FLOW SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT WINDS HAVE INCREASED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND WILL
KEEP MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. STORMS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA COULD REACH THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS. BY THURSDAY...590 HIGH OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO MAINTAINS ITS HOLD AS A VORT LOBE ROUNDS THE
NORTHEASTERN PERHIPHERY OF THE HIGH ACROSS NORTH AND EAST TEXAS.
SOME SLIGHT WEAKNESS IS BEING SUGGESTED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA REGION AS THE LOBE MOVES EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER WITH WELL BELOW
SEASONAL PWATS (GENERALLY 1.5 INCHES AND BELOW) AND WARM MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM 20C-26C...WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERAL MID 80S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST REACHING TO NEAR 105 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 77 91 74 95 / 10 40 30 10 10
VICTORIA 91 74 90 73 92 / 40 50 20 10 10
LAREDO 98 77 99 78 103 / 10 30 10 10 10
ALICE 94 74 95 72 96 / 10 40 20 10 10
ROCKPORT 90 78 90 78 91 / 20 50 30 10 10
COTULLA 98 73 97 74 101 / 30 40 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 93 75 93 74 94 / 10 40 30 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 90 78 89 78 91 / 20 40 40 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
JR/76...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.AVIATION...
HAVE MENTIONED TSRA AT KSSF/KSAT THRU 19Z/20Z RESPECTIVELY...THEN
VCSH AT ALL I-35 TAFS THRU 02Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. HAVE GONE
WITH PROB30 AT KAUS FOR 09/09Z-15Z AS BEST ESTIMATE ON TIMING FROM
HI-RES MODELS. HAVE NO MENTION OF PRECIP AT OTHER TAFS DUE ONLY
PROB20. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND SUBSEQUENT TIMING OF PASSAGE OF SHRA/TSRA COMPLEXES TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...
THEN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CIGS
LIFT TO VFR LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA. SELY WINDS 8 TO 18 KTS WILL PREVAIL...
EXCEPT VRBL WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN AND NEAR TSRA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
UPDATE...
THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX COUNTIES
CONTINUES TO ESCALATE QUICKLY. A LOOK AT SATELLITE DERIVED WV
FIELDS AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES A MUCH HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AS SURFACE TO 700 MB WINDS FUNNEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM A SOURCE WHICH ALMOST REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS NEAR THE SWRN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION FOCUS COULD SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST INTO WEST CENTRAL
TX. NEW CONVECTION IS ONGOING OVER NW TX AND COULD HELP TO PREVENT
THE HIGHWAY 281 CONVECTIVE FOCUS FROM EVOLVING INTO AN MCS. THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ISSUING AN FFA...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN GIVEN THE
LATEST CELL TRENDS OVER ATASCOSA COUNTY. POPS WERE UPGRADED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED.
THE THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCED AIRMASS ALSO WARRANTED A SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS AND REDUCE WINDS AND SHIFT THEM TO MORE
EASTERLY. AS THE 12Z SYNOPTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE SO FALL ALL BOMBED
ON INITIALIZING THE MOISTURE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH...WILL HOPE TO
UTILIZE CURRENT AND FUTURE RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS THE SPC GUIDANCE
TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER THAT COULD DEVELOP FOR TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SIMILAR PATTERN THIS MORNING AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTHERLY MOIST GULF FLOW...AND UPPER LEVEL
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. EXPECT
THE CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS 1-3 F LOWER THAN THE
PAST TWO DAYS. WE ARE STILL A LITTLE BEYOND THE FORECAST RANGE OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL SIGNAL OF THE STALLED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENDING UP ALONG I-20 BY 06Z MONDAY...AND ALONG
I-10 (WEST OF JCT) BY 06Z TUESDAY LOOKS INTACT. SIMILARLY...THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLY TIMED
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF MCS/S TO THE NORTH. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS...EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY FOR
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS TIMING
HOLDS...VERY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9 C/KM AND
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BE
EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT ENVIRONMENT ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL (GREATER
THAN GOLF BALL-SIZE). HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE FORECAST. THE
STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LINGERING STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EAST OF I-35.
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MEXICO DURING THE
MID-WEEK. THE GREATEST IMPACT FOR OUR AREA SHOULD BE ON THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S (+10 ABOVE
NORMAL) WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME BREAKDOWN IN THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A MINOR COOLING TREND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME SINCE THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SMALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 74 89 72 90 / 40 20 30 30 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 74 89 72 90 / 40 20 30 30 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 90 72 91 / 40 20 30 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 87 69 89 / 70 20 30 30 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 76 95 74 95 / 30 20 20 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 87 70 89 / 50 20 30 30 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 92 72 92 / 30 20 20 20 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 90 72 90 / 40 20 30 30 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 88 73 90 / 30 10 30 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 75 91 73 91 / 40 20 20 20 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 75 92 74 91 / 30 20 20 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1217 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect MVFR CIGS the next couple of hours at the KJCT and KSOA
terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will prevail this
afternoon and evening. Stratus will return again late tonight and
Monday morning and have MVFR CIGS at the terminals after 09Z.
Another complex of thunderstorms will probably move south into the
Big Country and Concho Valley late tonight. Have gone with VCTS at
the KABI and KSJT terminals for a few hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014/
UPDATE...
We updated the zones based on current observations, satellite, and
radar trends.
DISCUSSION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
UPDATE...
Updated morning POPS for convective trends.
DISCUSSION...
Increased rain chances to categorical this morning in the Big
Country and likely farther south in the Concho Valley. Storm complex
will dissipate or move east mid morning, but isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely redevelop this
afternoon with the suns heating.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN Jun 8 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
The remnants of the thunderstorm complex were moving east through
the Big County and Concho Valley at 1130Z. Thunder with MVFR CIGS
likely at KABI through mid morning. A brief thunderstorm may also
affect KSJT. Light showers likely across the rest of the TAF sites
this morning. Stratus with MVFR CIGS expected to rise to VFR by late
morning, but returning late tonight. Isolated thunderstorms possible
this afternoon. Best chance will be at KABI, where a VCTS was added
mid afternoon. A second complex of storm is expected late tonight,
mainly affecting KABI, KSJT, and KBBD after 8Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Large MCS in the South Plains, just west and north of the Big Country
at 2 AM, will spread eastward across the Big Country this morning.
The HRRR model seems to be handling this mesoscale convective
complex the best, pushing the leading edge of storms, east of
Abilene at 7 AM this morning. It also sends a thunderstorm outflow
boundary southward to San Angelo to Brownwood around noon. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to redevelop late morning and afternoon in
the Big Country, with isolated storms farther southward in the
Concho Valley and to Brownwood. GFS SB CAPES of 1300 to 1800 J/KG
and 0-6 KM Bulk Shears indicate the potential for severe
thunderstorms. A tornado also possible, but large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats.
Tonight, isolated diurnal thunderstorms may stay around during the
evening, with another large MCS moving in from the South Plains, as
a weak cold front approaches the region. The Big Country will again
see the best chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, with
decreasing chances south.
04
LONG TERM...
(Monday and Monday Night)
A weak cold front will move south across West Central Texas and
extend rain chances into Monday night. The severe weather threat
looks low for Monday and Monday night; however, there remains a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of a
line from Sonora, to Eden, to Brownwood. The primary threats are
large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning.
Otherwise, models continue in good agreement with the timing of
Monday`s front; the GFS is slightly slower than the NAM. By Monday
afternoon, most of West Central Texas should have northerly surface
winds. The GFS is more aggressive with QPF than the NAM for Monday,
and it brings a convective complex south across West Central Texas
with the front. A compromise between these two models looks best for
Monday PoPs, with the greatest rain chances mainly along and east of
a Sweetwater, to San Angelo, to Junction line. Highs on Monday close
to MOS guidance look best, with numbers at Abilene and San Angelo
slightly below seasonal normals. For Monday night, the GFS indicates
showers and thunderstorms may linger along and near where the front
will stall; however, confidence for where the front may stall isn`t
very high. Thus, 20 PoPs across a broad area of West Central Texas
looks best for Monday night. Lows Monday night close to MOS guidance
also looks reasonable.
(Tuesday through Saturday)
The remainder of the Long Term looks dry, with temperatures
gradually warming through the end of this week and into the start of
next weekend. By late week, a broad upper ridge builds over the
southwestern CONUS; nevertheless, northwest flow aloft over much of
Texas would be favorable for nocturnal MCS scenarios.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 66 85 59 87 68 / 60 30 20 5 5
San Angelo 68 88 64 89 68 / 40 20 20 5 5
Junction 73 89 69 90 69 / 20 20 20 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1154 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX COUNTIES
CONTINUES TO ESCALATE QUICKLY. A LOOK AT SATELLITE DERIVED WV
FIELDS AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES A MUCH HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AS SURFACE TO 700 MB WINDS FUNNEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM A SOURCE WHICH ALMOST REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS NEAR THE SWRN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION FOCUS COULD SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST INTO WEST CENTRAL
TX. NEW CONVECTION IS ONGOING OVER NW TX AND COULD HELP TO PREVENT
THE HIGHWAY 281 CONVECTIVE FOCUS FROM EVOLVING INTO AN MCS. THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ISSUING AN FFA...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN GIVEN THE
LATEST CELL TRENDS OVER ATASCOSA COUNTY. POPS WERE UPGRADED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED.
THE THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCED AIRMASS ALSO WARRANTED A SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS AND REDUCE WINDS AND SHIFT THEM TO MORE
EASTERLY. AS THE 12Z SYNOPTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE SO FALL ALL BOMBED
ON INITIALIZING THE MOISTURE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH...WILL HOPE TO
UTILIZE CURRENT AND FUTURE RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS THE SPC GUIDANCE
TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER THAT COULD DEVELOP FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SIMILAR PATTERN THIS MORNING AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTHERLY MOIST GULF FLOW...AND UPPER LEVEL
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. EXPECT
THE CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS 1-3 F LOWER THAN THE
PAST TWO DAYS. WE ARE STILL A LITTLE BEYOND THE FORECAST RANGE OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL SIGNAL OF THE STALLED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENDING UP ALONG I-20 BY 06Z MONDAY...AND ALONG
I-10 (WEST OF JCT) BY 06Z TUESDAY LOOKS INTACT. SIMILARLY...THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLY TIMED
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF MCS/S TO THE NORTH. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS...EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY FOR
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS TIMING
HOLDS...VERY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9 C/KM AND
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BE
EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT ENVIRONMENT ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL (GREATER
THAN GOLF BALL-SIZE). HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE FORECAST. THE
STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LINGERING STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EAST OF I-35.
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MEXICO DURING THE
MID-WEEK. THE GREATEST IMPACT FOR OUR AREA SHOULD BE ON THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S (+10 ABOVE
NORMAL) WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME BREAKDOWN IN THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A MINOR COOLING TREND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME SINCE THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SMALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 74 89 72 90 / 50 20 30 30 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 74 89 72 90 / 50 20 30 30 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 74 90 72 91 / 50 20 30 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 72 87 69 89 / 70 20 30 30 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 76 95 74 95 / 20 20 20 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 73 87 70 89 / 60 20 30 30 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 74 92 72 92 / 60 20 20 20 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 74 90 72 90 / 50 20 30 30 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 74 88 73 90 / 40 10 30 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 87 75 91 73 91 / 60 20 20 20 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 75 92 74 91 / 60 20 20 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
939 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014
.UPDATE...
We updated the zones based on current observations, satellite, and
radar trends.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
UPDATE...
Updated morning POPS for convective trends.
DISCUSSION...
Increased rain chances to categorical this morning in the Big
Country and likely farther south in the Concho Valley. Storm complex
will dissipate or move east mid morning, but isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely redevelop this
afternoon with the suns heating.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN Jun 8 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
The remnants of the thunderstorm complex were moving east through
the Big County and Concho Valley at 1130Z. Thunder with MVFR CIGS
likely at KABI through mid morning. A brief thunderstorm may also
affect KSJT. Light showers likely across the rest of the TAF sites
this morning. Stratus with MVFR CIGS expected to rise to VFR by late
morning, but returning late tonight. Isolated thunderstorms possible
this afternoon. Best chance will be at KABI, where a VCTS was added
mid afternoon. A second complex of storm is expected late tonight,
mainly affecting KABI, KSJT, and KBBD after 8Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Large MCS in the South Plains, just west and north of the Big Country
at 2 AM, will spread eastward across the Big Country this morning.
The HRRR model seems to be handling this mesoscale convective
complex the best, pushing the leading edge of storms, east of
Abilene at 7 AM this morning. It also sends a thunderstorm outflow
boundary southward to San Angelo to Brownwood around noon. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to redevelop late morning and afternoon in
the Big Country, with isolated storms farther southward in the
Concho Valley and to Brownwood. GFS SB CAPES of 1300 to 1800 J/KG
and 0-6 KM Bulk Shears indicate the potential for severe
thunderstorms. A tornado also possible, but large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats.
Tonight, isolated diurnal thunderstorms may stay around during the
evening, with another large MCS moving in from the South Plains, as
a weak cold front approaches the region. The Big Country will again
see the best chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, with
decreasing chances south.
04
LONG TERM...
(Monday and Monday Night)
A weak cold front will move south across West Central Texas and
extend rain chances into Monday night. The severe weather threat
looks low for Monday and Monday night; however, there remains a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of a
line from Sonora, to Eden, to Brownwood. The primary threats are
large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning.
Otherwise, models continue in good agreement with the timing of
Monday`s front; the GFS is slightly slower than the NAM. By Monday
afternoon, most of West Central Texas should have northerly surface
winds. The GFS is more aggressive with QPF than the NAM for Monday,
and it brings a convective complex south across West Central Texas
with the front. A compromise between these two models looks best for
Monday PoPs, with the greatest rain chances mainly along and east of
a Sweetwater, to San Angelo, to Junction line. Highs on Monday close
to MOS guidance look best, with numbers at Abilene and San Angelo
slightly below seasonal normals. For Monday night, the GFS indicates
showers and thunderstorms may linger along and near where the front
will stall; however, confidence for where the front may stall isn`t
very high. Thus, 20 PoPs across a broad area of West Central Texas
looks best for Monday night. Lows Monday night close to MOS guidance
also looks reasonable.
(Tuesday through Saturday)
The remainder of the Long Term looks dry, with temperatures
gradually warming through the end of this week and into the start of
next weekend. By late week, a broad upper ridge builds over the
southwestern CONUS; nevertheless, northwest flow aloft over much of
Texas would be favorable for nocturnal MCS scenarios.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 87 66 85 63 89 / 40 60 30 20 5
San Angelo 91 68 88 65 92 / 40 40 20 20 5
Junction 91 73 89 67 92 / 70 20 20 20 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Doll/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
832 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RECONFIGURE POPS. THE OVERNIGHT MCS
IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING...BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES
SOUTHEAST WHERE IT IS GENERATING SOME WEAK LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. MORE STEADY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME SUNSHINE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A BIT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO MORNING RAINS AND COLD POOL THAT HAS SPREAD OVER THE
REGION. TR.92
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 549 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE LINE OF STORMS
APPROACHING THE METROPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
FARTHER EAST IT GETS. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA
TAFS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL TEMPO FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PLACES THE LEADING EDGE IN THE METROPLEX RIGHT
AROUND 12Z...SO WILL LIKELY BEGIN THE FORECAST WITH A PREDOMINANT
-TSRA GROUP. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP THE TEMPO TO 12-14Z AND WILL MAKE
THAT DECISION CLOSE TO TAF ISSUANCE. ENDING THE -TSRA AT 16Z LOOKS
GOOD IN ANTICIPATION OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD DISSIPATING LATER
THIS MORNING.
THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTHWEST OF DFW TRACON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERLY CELL
MOVEMENT WOULD BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS IN AND NEAR
THE DFW AREA BY 09/00Z. A THIRD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LIFT FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER SHW SOUTHERN PLAINS ARRIVES. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING ANYTHING
THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES.
30
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
THOUGH WEAKENING NOW...QLCS SEEMS TO BE HOLDING SOME CONTINUITY
WITH THE 30-40 KT OUTFLOW HOLDING CLOSE IN TO THE MAIN
REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT. CHANCES ARE AREAS NORTHEAST OF A COMANCHE-
DFW-COOPER LINE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL DESPITE THE
WEAKENING TRENDS. HAVE RAISED ALL THESE AREAS INTO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL CATEGORIES... THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS 0.5-1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE...BUT SYSTEM
AND IT/S ASSOCIATION MCV TO THE NORTH IN E-CENTRAL OK ARE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE. DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINS TO PERSIST OVER ANY
PARTICULAR POINT FOR A ANY LENGTH OF TIME. OTHERWISE...JUST
TWEAKED OTHER PARAMETERS OF FORECAST. IF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS
LONGER THROUGH THE MORNING THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED LATER THIS
MORNING.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
A COUPLE OF BUSY DAYS AHEAD WITH STORM CHANCES. CURRENT QLCS NOW
ABOUT TO ENTER FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF OUR CWA. MUCAPE VALUES
1000-1500 J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 25-30 KTS
FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH NORTHWEST OF A CISCO-MINERAL WELLS-GAINESVILLE LINE. THE
QLCS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE AS A 30-35 KT LLJ WEAKENS
AND VEERS AND ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. STILL
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WEST-THROUGH NORTH OF THE DFW METRO THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THROW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AND MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING/SOUTHERN MONTANA. HAVE
RAISED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH FOR THE
CURRENT QLCS...DESPITE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. DID RAISE
THESE SAME SAME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY PER TECH/ARW WRF AND HRRR MODEL INDICATIONS THAT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CAPPING
VERSION WILL HAVE LIKELY BEEN WEAKENED BY THIS MORNING/S QLCS TO
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL. THERE ARE PLENTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL (CAP/
MOISTURE) AND MESOSCALE (OUTFLOW/STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER) PLAYERS INVOLVED TODAY TO MAKE THIS FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY THAT DO POP UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DOWNBURST WINDS
AND SOME SMALLER HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. IN SIMILAR FASHION AS SEEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...
STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER QLCS AS 35-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT. BULK OF THE STORMS WILL
CONGEAL ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...THUS THE COMPLEX FORECAST REGARDING POPS AND
TIMING. FEELING RIGHT NOW IS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 380 AND THE RED
RIVER...AND ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE BEST BETS
FOR STORMS THIS EVENING. MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TO ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL THE OF THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS. WITH THE STRONG LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS...MUCH OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION OUTSIDE OF OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
BE LIFTED AND ERODED. LOOK FOR 60-80% COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF...WITH MORE ISOLATED-SCATTERED ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST
HALF WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO ERODE THE CAP AND WILL BE AWAITING
THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MONDAY ACTIVITY AS ANOTHER
WEAKENING TREND OCCURS AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE PER THE SAME REASONS
MENTIONED EARLIER FOR THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR EASTERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREAS...AS LIFT FROM THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ERODE ANY REMAINING CAPPING INVERSION LEFT WITHIN OUR
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. VERY GUSTY WINDS...SMALLER HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE THE FRONT
AND STORMS...WE DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL TO EXCEED 1-2 INCHES AND DO
NOT PLAN ON ANY HYDROLOGICAL WATCHES AT THIS TIME FOR THE CWA. BEING
IN A DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS HOPED THE RAIN COMES DOWN
STEADILY ENOUGH NOT TO RUN OFF AND ACTUALLY BENEFIT THE AREA LAKES
TO SOME DEGREE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE ADVANCING AND CLEAR THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE
UPPER HIGH THAT HAD REGRESSED BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
RETURN THE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK. LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE LEFT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LIKELY WEAKENING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 86 70 86 67 90 / 50 80 50 20 10
WACO, TX 90 73 89 69 92 / 20 30 50 30 10
PARIS, TX 85 70 83 64 83 / 70 70 60 30 20
DENTON, TX 85 70 84 64 87 / 90 80 50 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 86 71 83 65 86 / 60 80 60 20 10
DALLAS, TX 87 72 86 68 88 / 40 70 50 20 10
TERRELL, TX 88 73 87 66 89 / 20 50 60 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 90 72 87 68 88 / 20 30 50 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 89 69 91 / 20 20 50 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 86 69 86 63 89 / 80 80 30 20 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
655 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Updated morning POPS for convective trends.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Increased rain chances to categorical this morning in the Big
Country and likely farther south in the Concho Valley. Storm complex
will dissipate or move east mid morning, but isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely redevelop this
afternoon with the suns heating.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN Jun 8 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
The remnants of the thunderstorm complex were moving east through
the Big County and Concho Valley at 1130Z. Thunder with MVFR CIGS
likely at KABI through mid morning. A brief thunderstorm may also
affect KSJT. Light showers likely across the rest of the TAF sites
this morning. Stratus with MVFR CIGS expected to rise to VFR by late
morning, but returning late tonight. Isolated thunderstorms possible
this afternoon. Best chance will be at KABI, where a VCTS was added
mid afternoon. A second complex of storm is expected late tonight,
mainly affecting KABI, KSJT, and KBBD after 8Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Large MCS in the South Plains, just west and north of the Big Country
at 2 AM, will spread eastward across the Big Country this morning.
The HRRR model seems to be handling this mesoscale convective
complex the best, pushing the leading edge of storms, east of
Abilene at 7 AM this morning. It also sends a thunderstorm outflow
boundary southward to San Angelo to Brownwood around noon. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to redevelop late morning and afternoon in
the Big Country, with isolated storms farther southward in the
Concho Valley and to Brownwood. GFS SB CAPES of 1300 to 1800 J/KG
and 0-6 KM Bulk Shears indicate the potential for severe
thunderstorms. A tornado also possible, but large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats.
Tonight, isolated diurnal thunderstorms may stay around during the
evening, with another large MCS moving in from the South Plains, as
a weak cold front approaches the region. The Big Country will again
see the best chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, with
decreasing chances south.
04
LONG TERM...
(Monday and Monday Night)
A weak cold front will move south across West Central Texas and
extend rain chances into Monday night. The severe weather threat
looks low for Monday and Monday night; however, there remains a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of a
line from Sonora, to Eden, to Brownwood. The primary threats are
large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning.
Otherwise, models continue in good agreement with the timing of
Monday`s front; the GFS is slightly slower than the NAM. By Monday
afternoon, most of West Central Texas should have northerly surface
winds. The GFS is more aggressive with QPF than the NAM for Monday,
and it brings a convective complex south across West Central Texas
with the front. A compromise between these two models looks best for
Monday PoPs, with the greatest rain chances mainly along and east of
a Sweetwater, to San Angelo, to Junction line. Highs on Monday close
to MOS guidance look best, with numbers at Abilene and San Angelo
slightly below seasonal normals. For Monday night, the GFS indicates
showers and thunderstorms may linger along and near where the front
will stall; however, confidence for where the front may stall isn`t
very high. Thus, 20 PoPs across a broad area of West Central Texas
looks best for Monday night. Lows Monday night close to MOS guidance
also looks reasonable.
(Tuesday through Saturday)
The remainder of the Long Term looks dry, with temperatures
gradually warming through the end of this week and into the start of
next weekend. By late week, a broad upper ridge builds over the
southwestern CONUS; nevertheless, northwest flow aloft over much of
Texas would be favorable for nocturnal MCS scenarios.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 87 66 85 63 89 / 60 60 30 20 5
San Angelo 91 68 88 65 92 / 30 40 20 20 5
Junction 91 73 89 67 92 / 20 20 20 20 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
630 AM CDT SUN Jun 8 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
The remnants of the thunderstorm complex were moving east through
the Big County and Concho Valley at 1130Z. Thunder with MVFR CIGS
likely at KABI through mid morning. A brief thunderstorm may also
affect KSJT. Light showers likely across the rest of the TAF sites
this morning. Stratus with MVFR CIGS expected to rise to VFR by late
morning, but returning late tonight. Isolated thunderstorms possible
this afternoon. Best chance will be at KABI, where a VCTS was added
mid afternoon. A second complex of storm is expected late tonight,
mainly affecting KABI, KSJT, and KBBD after 8Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Large MCS in the South Plains, just west and north of the Big Country
at 2 AM, will spread eastward across the Big Country this morning.
The HRRR model seems to be handling this mesoscale convective
complex the best, pushing the leading edge of storms, east of
Abilene at 7 AM this morning. It also sends a thunderstorm outflow
boundary southward to San Angelo to Brownwood around noon. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to redevelop late morning and afternoon in
the Big Country, with isolated storms farther southward in the
Concho Valley and to Brownwood. GFS SB CAPES of 1300 to 1800 J/KG
and 0-6 KM Bulk Shears indicate the potential for severe
thunderstorms. A tornado also possible, but large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats.
Tonight, isolated diurnal thunderstorms may stay around during the
evening, with another large MCS moving in from the South Plains, as
a weak cold front approaches the region. The Big Country will again
see the best chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, with
decreasing chances south.
04
LONG TERM...
(Monday and Monday Night)
A weak cold front will move south across West Central Texas and
extend rain chances into Monday night. The severe weather threat
looks low for Monday and Monday night; however, there remains a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of a
line from Sonora, to Eden, to Brownwood. The primary threats are
large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning.
Otherwise, models continue in good agreement with the timing of
Monday`s front; the GFS is slightly slower than the NAM. By Monday
afternoon, most of West Central Texas should have northerly surface
winds. The GFS is more aggressive with QPF than the NAM for Monday,
and it brings a convective complex south across West Central Texas
with the front. A compromise between these two models looks best for
Monday PoPs, with the greatest rain chances mainly along and east of
a Sweetwater, to San Angelo, to Junction line. Highs on Monday close
to MOS guidance look best, with numbers at Abilene and San Angelo
slightly below seasonal normals. For Monday night, the GFS indicates
showers and thunderstorms may linger along and near where the front
will stall; however, confidence for where the front may stall isn`t
very high. Thus, 20 PoPs across a broad area of West Central Texas
looks best for Monday night. Lows Monday night close to MOS guidance
also looks reasonable.
(Tuesday through Saturday)
The remainder of the Long Term looks dry, with temperatures
gradually warming through the end of this week and into the start of
next weekend. By late week, a broad upper ridge builds over the
southwestern CONUS; nevertheless, northwest flow aloft over much of
Texas would be favorable for nocturnal MCS scenarios.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 87 66 85 63 89 / 60 60 30 20 5
San Angelo 91 68 88 65 92 / 30 40 20 20 5
Junction 91 73 89 67 92 / 20 20 20 20 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
554 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
THOUGH WEAKENING NOW...QLCS SEEMS TO BE HOLDING SOME CONTINUITY
WITH THE 30-40 KT OUTFLOW HOLDING CLOSE IN TO THE MAIN REFLECTIVITY
GRADIENT. CHANCES ARE AREAS NORTHEAST OF A COMANCHE- DFW-COOPER
LINE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL DESPITE THE WEAKENING TRENDS.
HAVE RAISED ALL THESE AREAS INTO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
CATEGORIES... THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS 0.5-1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE...BUT SYSTEM
AND IT/S ASSOCIATION MCV TO THE NORTH IN E-CENTRAL OK ARE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE. DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINS TO PERSIST OVER ANY
PARTICULAR POINT FOR A ANY LENGTH OF TIME. OTHERWISE...JUST
TWEAKED OTHER PARAMETERS OF FORECAST. IF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS
LONGER THROUGH THE MORNING THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED LATER THIS
MORNING.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 549 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE LINE OF STORMS
APPROACHING THE METROPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
FARTHER EAST IT GETS. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA
TAFS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL TEMPO FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PLACES THE LEADING EDGE IN THE METROPLEX RIGHT
AROUND 12Z...SO WILL LIKELY BEGIN THE FORECAST WITH A PREDOMINANT
-TSRA GROUP. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP THE TEMPO TO 12-14Z AND WILL MAKE
THAT DECISION CLOSE TO TAF ISSUANCE. ENDING THE -TSRA AT 16Z LOOKS
GOOD IN ANTICIPATION OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD DISSIPATING LATER
THIS MORNING.
THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTHWEST OF DFW TRACON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERLY CELL
MOVEMENT WOULD BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS IN AND NEAR
THE DFW AREA BY 09/00Z. A THIRD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LIFT FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER SHW SOUTHERN PLAINS ARRIVES. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING ANYTHING
THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
A COUPLE OF BUSY DAYS AHEAD WITH STORM CHANCES. CURRENT QLCS NOW
ABOUT TO ENTER FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF OUR CWA. MUCAPE VALUES
1000-1500 J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 25-30 KTS
FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH NORTHWEST OF A CISCO-MINERAL WELLS-GAINESVILLE LINE. THE
QLCS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE AS A 30-35 KT LLJ WEAKENS
AND VEERS AND ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. STILL
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WEST-THROUGH NORTH OF THE DFW METRO THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THROW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AND MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING/SOUTHERN MONTANA. HAVE
RAISED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH FOR THE
CURRENT QLCS...DESPITE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. DID RAISE
THESE SAME SAME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY PER TECH/ARW WRF AND HRRR MODEL INDICATIONS THAT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CAPPING
VERSION WILL HAVE LIKELY BEEN WEAKENED BY THIS MORNING/S QLCS TO
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL. THERE ARE PLENTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL (CAP/
MOISTURE) AND MESOSCALE (OUTFLOW/STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER) PLAYERS INVOLVED TODAY TO MAKE THIS FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY THAT DO POP UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DOWNBURST WINDS
AND SOME SMALLER HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. IN SIMILAR FASHION AS SEEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...
STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER QLCS AS 35-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT. BULK OF THE STORMS WILL
CONGEAL ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...THUS THE COMPLEX FORECAST REGARDING POPS AND
TIMING. FEELING RIGHT NOW IS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 380 AND THE RED
RIVER...AND ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE BEST BETS
FOR STORMS THIS EVENING. MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TO ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL THE OF THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS. WITH THE STRONG LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS...MUCH OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION OUTSIDE OF OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
BE LIFTED AND ERODED. LOOK FOR 60-80% COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF...WITH MORE ISOLATED-SCATTERED ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST
HALF WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO ERODE THE CAP AND WILL BE AWAITING
THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MONDAY ACTIVITY AS ANOTHER
WEAKENING TREND OCCURS AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE PER THE SAME REASONS
MENTIONED EARLIER FOR THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR EASTERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREAS...AS LIFT FROM THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ERODE ANY REMAINING CAPPING INVERSION LEFT WITHIN OUR
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. VERY GUSTY WINDS...SMALLER HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE THE FRONT
AND STORMS...WE DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL TO EXCEED 1-2 INCHES AND DO
NOT PLAN ON ANY HYDROLOGICAL WATCHES AT THIS TIME FOR THE CWA. BEING
IN A DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS HOPED THE RAIN COMES DOWN
STEADILY ENOUGH NOT TO RUN OFF AND ACTUALLY BENEFIT THE AREA LAKES
TO SOME DEGREE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE ADVANCING AND CLEAR THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE
UPPER HIGH THAT HAD REGRESSED BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
RETURN THE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK. LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE LEFT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LIKELY WEAKENING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 70 86 67 90 / 80 80 50 20 10
WACO, TX 91 73 89 69 92 / 20 30 50 30 10
PARIS, TX 85 70 83 64 83 / 80 70 60 30 20
DENTON, TX 88 70 84 64 87 / 90 80 50 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 88 71 83 65 86 / 80 80 60 20 10
DALLAS, TX 90 72 86 68 88 / 70 70 50 20 10
TERRELL, TX 90 73 87 66 89 / 40 50 60 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 89 72 87 68 88 / 10 30 50 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 89 69 91 / 20 20 50 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 69 86 63 89 / 70 80 30 20 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
549 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.AVIATION...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE LINE OF STORMS
APPROACHING THE METROPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
FARTHER EAST IT GETS. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA
TAFS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL TEMPO FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PLACES THE LEADING EDGE IN THE METROPLEX RIGHT
AROUND 12Z...SO WILL LIKELY BEGIN THE FORECAST WITH A PREDOMINANT
-TSRA GROUP. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP THE TEMPO TO 12-14Z AND WILL MAKE
THAT DECISION CLOSE TO TAF ISSUANCE. ENDING THE -TSRA AT 16Z LOOKS
GOOD IN ANTICIPATION OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD DISSIPATING LATER
THIS MORNING.
THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTHWEST OF DFW TRACON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERLY CELL
MOVEMENT WOULD BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS IN AND NEAR
THE DFW AREA BY 09/00Z. A THIRD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LIFT FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER SHW SOUTHERN PLAINS ARRIVES. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING ANYTHING
THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
A COUPLE OF BUSY DAYS AHEAD WITH STORM CHANCES. CURRENT QLCS NOW
ABOUT TO ENTER FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF OUR CWA. MUCAPE VALUES
1000-1500 J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 25-30 KTS
FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH NORTHWEST OF A CISCO-MINERAL WELLS-GAINESVILLE LINE. THE
QLCS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE AS A 30-35 KT LLJ WEAKENS
AND VEERS AND ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. STILL
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WEST-THROUGH NORTH OF THE DFW METRO THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THROW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AND MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING/SOUTHERN MONTANA. HAVE
RAISED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH FOR THE
CURRENT QLCS...DESPITE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. DID RAISE
THESE SAME SAME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY PER TECH/ARW WRF AND HRRR MODEL INDICATIONS THAT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CAPPING
VERSION WILL HAVE LIKELY BEEN WEAKENED BY THIS MORNING/S QLCS TO
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL. THERE ARE PLENTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL (CAP/
MOISTURE) AND MESOSCALE (OUTFLOW/STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER) PLAYERS INVOLVED TODAY TO MAKE THIS FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY THAT DO POP UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DOWNBURST WINDS
AND SOME SMALLER HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. IN SIMILAR FASHION AS SEEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...
STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER QLCS AS 35-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT. BULK OF THE STORMS WILL
CONGEAL ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...THUS THE COMPLEX FORECAST REGARDING POPS AND
TIMING. FEELING RIGHT NOW IS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 380 AND THE RED
RIVER...AND ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE BEST BETS
FOR STORMS THIS EVENING. MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TO ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL THE OF THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS. WITH THE STRONG LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS...MUCH OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION OUTSIDE OF OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
BE LIFTED AND ERODED. LOOK FOR 60-80% COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF...WITH MORE ISOLATED-SCATTERED ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST
HALF WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO ERODE THE CAP AND WILL BE AWAITING
THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MONDAY ACTIVITY AS ANOTHER
WEAKENING TREND OCCURS AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE PER THE SAME REASONS
MENTIONED EARLIER FOR THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR EASTERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREAS...AS LIFT FROM THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ERODE ANY REMAINING CAPPING INVERSION LEFT WITHIN OUR
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. VERY GUSTY WINDS...SMALLER HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE THE FRONT
AND STORMS...WE DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL TO EXCEED 1-2 INCHES AND DO
NOT PLAN ON ANY HYDROLOGICAL WATCHES AT THIS TIME FOR THE CWA. BEING
IN A DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS HOPED THE RAIN COMES DOWN
STEADILY ENOUGH NOT TO RUN OFF AND ACTUALLY BENEFIT THE AREA LAKES
TO SOME DEGREE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE ADVANCING AND CLEAR THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE
UPPER HIGH THAT HAD REGRESSED BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
RETURN THE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK. LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE LEFT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LIKELY WEAKENING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 70 86 67 90 / 50 80 50 20 10
WACO, TX 91 73 89 69 92 / 20 30 50 30 10
PARIS, TX 85 70 83 64 83 / 60 70 60 30 20
DENTON, TX 88 70 84 64 87 / 70 80 50 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 88 71 83 65 86 / 50 80 60 20 10
DALLAS, TX 90 72 86 68 88 / 40 70 50 20 10
TERRELL, TX 90 73 87 66 89 / 20 50 60 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 89 72 87 68 88 / 10 30 50 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 89 69 91 / 20 20 50 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 69 86 63 89 / 60 80 30 20 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
355 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF BUSY DAYS AHEAD WITH STORM CHANCES. CURRENT QLCS NOW
ABOUT TO ENTER FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF OUR CWA. MUCAPE VALUES
1000-1500 J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 25-30 KTS
FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH NORTHWEST OF A CISCO-MINERAL WELLS-GAINESVILLE LINE. THE
QLCS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE AS A 30-35 KT LLJ WEAKENS
AND VEERS AND ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. STILL
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WEST-THROUGH NORTH OF THE DFW METRO THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THROW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AND MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING/SOUTHERN MONTANA. HAVE
RAISED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH FOR THE
CURRENT QLCS...DESPITE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. DID RAISE
THESE SAME SAME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY PER TECH/ARW WRF AND HRRR MODEL INDICATIONS THAT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CAPPING
VERSION WILL HAVE LIKELY BEEN WEAKENED BY THIS MORNING/S QLCS TO
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL. THERE ARE PLENTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL (CAP/
MOISTURE) AND MESOSCALE (OUTFLOW/STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER) PLAYERS INVOLVED TODAY TO MAKE THIS FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY THAT DO POP UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DOWNBURST WINDS
AND SOME SMALLER HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. IN SIMILAR FASHION AS SEEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...
STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER QLCS AS 35-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT. BULK OF THE STORMS WILL
CONGEAL ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...THUS THE COMPLEX FORECAST REGARDING POPS AND
TIMING. FEELING RIGHT NOW IS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 380 AND THE RED
RIVER...AND ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE BEST BETS
FOR STORMS THIS EVENING. MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TO ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL THE OF THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS. WITH THE STRONG LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS...MUCH OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION OUTSIDE OF OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
BE LIFTED AND ERODED. LOOK FOR 60-80% COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF...WITH MORE ISOLATED-SCATTERED ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST
HALF WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO ERODE THE CAP AND WILL BE AWAITING
THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MONDAY ACTIVITY AS ANOTHER
WEAKENING TREND OCCURS AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE PER THE SAME REASONS
MENTIONED EARLIER FOR THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR EASTERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREAS...AS LIFT FROM THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ERODE ANY REMAINING CAPPING INVERSION LEFT WITHIN OUR
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. VERY GUSTY WINDS...SMALLER HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE THE FRONT
AND STORMS...WE DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL TO EXCEED 1-2 INCHES AND DO
NOT PLAN ON ANY HYDROLOGICAL WATCHES AT THIS TIME FOR THE CWA. BEING
IN A DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS HOPED THE RAIN COMES DOWN
STEADILY ENOUGH NOT TO RUN OFF AND ACTUALLY BENEFIT THE AREA LAKES
TO SOME DEGREE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE ADVANCING AND CLEAR THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE
UPPER HIGH THAT HAD REGRESSED BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
RETURN THE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK. LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE LEFT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LIKELY WEAKENING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
CONCERNS...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
11-16Z SUNDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AT WACO 12-16Z SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
TEXAS FROM JUST SOUTH OF ARDMORE /KADM/ TO ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH
OF WICHITA FALLS /KSPS/ TO NEAR LUBBOCK /KLBB/ AT 04Z. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 10-20 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS TO ITS SOUTH.
A MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEM /MCS/ DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OR EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRECKENRIDGE
/KBKD/ TO MINERAL WELLS /KWML/ TO PARIS /KPRX/. HAVE KEPT VCTS IN
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR THE 11Z TO 16Z PERIOD AS THE MCS
SHOULD WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY 16Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THE CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WHICH SHOULD MEAN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE METROPLEX DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.
HAVE PLACED VCSH STARTING AT 06Z SUNDAY AND VCTS STARTING AT 09Z
SUNDAY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.
SOME STRATUS MAY ATTEMPT TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE WACO AREA
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SO HAVE PLACED BKN020 IN THE WACO
TAF FOR THE 12Z TO 16Z SUNDAY PERIOD.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 70 86 67 90 / 50 80 50 20 10
WACO, TX 91 73 89 69 92 / 20 30 50 30 10
PARIS, TX 85 70 83 64 83 / 60 70 60 30 20
DENTON, TX 88 70 84 64 87 / 70 80 50 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 88 71 83 65 86 / 50 80 60 20 10
DALLAS, TX 90 72 86 68 88 / 40 70 50 20 10
TERRELL, TX 90 73 87 66 89 / 20 50 60 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 89 72 87 68 88 / 10 30 50 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 89 69 91 / 20 20 50 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 69 86 63 89 / 60 80 30 20 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
403 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Large MCS in the South Plains, just west and north of the Big Country
at 2 AM, will spread eastward across the Big Country this morning.
The HRRR model seems to be handling this mesoscale convective
complex the best, pushing the leading edge of storms, east of
Abilene at 7 AM this morning. It also sends a thunderstorm outflow
boundary southward to San Angelo to Brownwood around noon. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to redevelop late morning and afternoon in
the Big Country, with isolated storms farther southward in the
Concho Valley and to Brownwood. GFS SB CAPES of 1300 to 1800 J/KG
and 0-6 KM Bulk Shears indicate the potential for severe
thunderstorms. A tornado also possible, but large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats.
Tonight, isolated diurnal thunderstorms may stay around during the
evening, with another large MCS moving in from the South Plains, as
a weak cold front approaches the region. The Big Country will again
see the best chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, with
decreasing chances south.
04
.LONG TERM...
(Monday and Monday Night)
A weak cold front will move south across West Central Texas and
extend rain chances into Monday night. The severe weather threat
looks low for Monday and Monday night; however, there remains a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of a
line from Sonora, to Eden, to Brownwood. The primary threats are
large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning.
Otherwise, models continue in good agreement with the timing of
Monday`s front; the GFS is slightly slower than the NAM. By Monday
afternoon, most of West Central Texas should have northerly surface
winds. The GFS is more aggressive with QPF than the NAM for Monday,
and it brings a convective complex south across West Central Texas
with the front. A compromise between these two models looks best for
Monday PoPs, with the greatest rain chances mainly along and east of
a Sweetwater, to San Angelo, to Junction line. Highs on Monday close
to MOS guidance look best, with numbers at Abilene and San Angelo
slightly below seasonal normals. For Monday night, the GFS indicates
showers and thunderstorms may linger along and near where the front
will stall; however, confidence for where the front may stall isn`t
very high. Thus, 20 PoPs across a broad area of West Central Texas
looks best for Monday night. Lows Monday night close to MOS guidance
also looks reasonable.
(Tuesday through Saturday)
The remainder of the Long Term looks dry, with temperatures
gradually warming through the end of this week and into the start of
next weekend. By late week, a broad upper ridge builds over the
southwestern CONUS; nevertheless, northwest flow aloft over much of
Texas would be favorable for nocturnal MCS scenarios.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 87 66 85 63 89 / 60 60 30 20 5
San Angelo 91 68 88 65 92 / 30 40 20 20 5
Junction 91 73 89 67 92 / 20 20 20 20 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
900 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS ATMOSPHERE
INSTABILITY WANES. LEANED POPS TONIGHT TOWARDS THE HIRESW-ARW AND
HRRR WHICH CAPTURED THIS EVENINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE
BEST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHAPED TOWARDS THE LAMP GUIDANCE FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S. FOR TUESDAY...A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 550 PM EDT MONDAY...
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT TO MATCH UP
WITH WSR-88D KFCX TRENDS. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW SPREAD CONVECTION
EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR
LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS EVENING.
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CUT OFF SO FAR BY DRY AIR ALOFT
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE OROGRAPHIC AIDED REGIONS. HOWEVER
SEEING SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ACROSS THE SOUTH-
EAST AHEAD OF A FAINT WAVE...REMNANT OF THE EARLIER TN VALLEY
MCS...THAT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS NW NC THIS EVENING. MOST
GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTH AND SW SO LEAVING IN A LOW POP MAINLY
SOUTHERN HALF THIS EVENING... AND ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH. OTRW FORCING REMAINS LIMITED
TONIGHT AS COULD EASILY SEE THINGS GO BASICALLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE BUT GIVEN LACK OF
SHRA SO FAR APPEARS COVERAGE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LOW
SPOTS OUT EAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV LOWS IN MOUNTAINS
PER LOWER DEWPOINTS WHILE TRENDING TOWARD THE NAM OUT EAST OF THE
FRONT.
THIS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY AS SE HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE RIDING NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST LIFT AGAIN WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE TO
THE WEST WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS LACKING OVERALL ACROSS
THE REGION WITH WEST WINDS ALOFT CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE DOES DEEPEN WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WHILE ANY
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH DOWN THE FRONT GETS DAMPENED
UPON SPILLING EAST INTO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. APPEARS BEST
FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE THE
FRONT/DEEPER MOISTURE INTERSECT AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY POSSIBLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL BACKING TO A
MORE SW COMPONENT TAKES SHAPE. ELSW THINKING MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE DESPITE HIGH THETA-E AND INSTABILITY PER STRONG HEATING
ESPCLY OUT EAST. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF AFTERNOON LIKELYS FAR WEST AND BLUE RIDGE SW OF
ROANOKE. HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO 90 SE PIEDMONT PER EARLY DOWNSLOPE...AND 80S ELSW OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND FAR NW WHERE CLOUDS MAY AGAIN HOLD
VALUES IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP HEAD NORTHEAST
TO NEAR AND THEN ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...RESULTING IN A
SLOW MOVING...ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL SLOW MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THEN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR
REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THIS PERIOD...CULMINATING WITH PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CHANCE OF
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THE ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY OF
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRANSLATE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD...THERE WILL BE TREND TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
READINGS EACH DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
ONLY SOME NARROW WINDOWS FOR LIMITED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST REGION.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...OR EVEN SLOWER MOVING DETACHED UPPER LOW
OUTSIDE THE MAIN JET STREAM...WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A 12 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING STILL OCCURRING...WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FEATURE WILL MAKE LIMITED MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIMITED CONVECTION...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WILL BE EITHER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON EAST OF THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING. ITS INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND REBOUND ONLY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT MONDAY...
FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO EJECT OUT OF SLOW MOVING CENTRAL
U.S. UPPER LOW IMPACTING THE CWA NOW...WITH SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ROA/LYH AND
VCTS FOR DAN FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF IN ANTICIPATING OF
THIS ACTIVITY SKIRTING THROUGH THE AREA. -SHRA NOTED ALSO IN FAR
SW VA...WHICH COULD IMPACT BLF/BCB LATER...BUT LIKELY WILL
DISSIPATE. MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH -SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AS THIS FIRST WAVE PASSES BY. CLOUD COVER AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS PROBLEMATIC. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER...BUT SOME OF EACH IS POSSIBLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LWB...GENERALLY PLANNING ON MVFR VSBYS AND MOST CIGS AOA LOW END
VFR. FOR TUE...A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NE TOWARD THE CWA
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SIMILAR TO TODAY. A WARM ADVECTION WING
IS ALSO APPARENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL INTRODUCE VCTS FOR 18Z AND
BEYOND WITH MORE SPECIFIC TIMING OF TSRA TO FOLLOW IN LATER TAFS.
WINDS WSW 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SSW-SW 7-10KTS WITH
LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE ROA/DAN/BLF.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FOR MID WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEY WED/THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGH GETS CLOSER THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE WITH
THE THREAT FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS ALSO INCREASING. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING THUS RESULTING IN A MULTIPLE DAY THREAT
FOR SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WED-FRI
WITH A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THUS...PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. WITH THE FRONT
JUST SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL AROUND...WILL
SEE MORE OF AN ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THREAT FOR CONVECTION
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
816 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM EDT MONDAY...
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT TO MATCH UP
WITH WSR-88D KFCX TRENDS. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW SPREAD CONVECTION
EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR
LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS EVENING.
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CUT OFF SO FAR BY DRY AIR ALOFT
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE OROGRAPHIC AIDED REGIONS. HOWEVER
SEEING SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ACROSS THE SOUTH-
EAST AHEAD OF A FAINT WAVE...REMNANT OF THE EARLIER TN VALLEY
MCS...THAT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS NW NC THIS EVENING. MOST
GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTH AND SW SO LEAVING IN A LOW POP MAINLY
SOUTHERN HALF THIS EVENING... AND ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH. OTRW FORCING REMAINS LIMITED
TONIGHT AS COULD EASILY SEE THINGS GO BASICALLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE BUT GIVEN LACK OF
SHRA SO FAR APPEARS COVERAGE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LOW
SPOTS OUT EAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV LOWS IN MOUNTAINS
PER LOWER DEWPOINTS WHILE TRENDING TOWARD THE NAM OUT EAST OF THE
FRONT.
THIS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY AS SE HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE RIDING NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST LIFT AGAIN WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE TO
THE WEST WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS LACKING OVERALL ACROSS
THE REGION WITH WEST WINDS ALOFT CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE DOES DEEPEN WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WHILE ANY
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH DOWN THE FRONT GETS DAMPENED
UPON SPILLING EAST INTO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. APPEARS BEST
FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE THE
FRONT/DEEPER MOISTURE INTERSECT AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY POSSIBLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL BACKING TO A
MORE SW COMPONENT TAKES SHAPE. ELSW THINKING MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE DESPITE HIGH THETA-E AND INSTABILITY PER STRONG HEATING
ESPCLY OUT EAST. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF AFTERNOON LIKELYS FAR WEST AND BLUE RIDGE SW OF
ROANOKE. HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO 90 SE PIEDMONT PER EARLY DOWNSLOPE...AND 80S ELSW OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND FAR NW WHERE CLOUDS MAY AGAIN HOLD
VALUES IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP HEAD NORTHEAST
TO NEAR AND THEN ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...RESULTING IN A
SLOW MOVING...ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL SLOW MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THEN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR
REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THIS PERIOD...CULMINATING WITH PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CHANCE OF
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THE ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY OF
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRANSLATE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD...THERE WILL BE TREND TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
READINGS EACH DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
ONLY SOME NARROW WINDOWS FOR LIMITED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST REGION.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...OR EVEN SLOWER MOVING DETACHED UPPER LOW
OUTSIDE THE MAIN JET STREAM...WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A 12 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING STILL OCCURRING...WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FEATURE WILL MAKE LIMITED MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIMITED CONVECTION...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WILL BE EITHER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON EAST OF THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING. ITS INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND REBOUND ONLY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT MONDAY...
FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO EJECT OUT OF SLOW MOVING CENTRAL
U.S. UPPER LOW IMPACTING THE CWA NOW...WITH SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ROA/LYH AND
VCTS FOR DAN FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF IN ANTICIPATING OF
THIS ACTIVITY SKIRTING THROUGH THE AREA. -SHRA NOTED ALSO IN FAR
SW VA...WHICH COULD IMPACT BLF/BCB LATER...BUT LIKELY WILL
DISSIPATE. MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH -SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AS THIS FIRST WAVE PASSES BY. CLOUD COVER AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS PROBLEMATIC. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER...BUT SOME OF EACH IS POSSIBLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LWB...GENERALLY PLANNING ON MVFR VSBYS AND MOST CIGS AOA LOW END
VFR. FOR TUE...A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NE TOWARD THE CWA
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SIMILAR TO TODAY. A WARM ADVECTION WING
IS ALSO APPARENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL INTRODUCE VCTS FOR 18Z AND
BEYOND WITH MORE SPECIFIC TIMING OF TSRA TO FOLLOW IN LATER TAFS.
WINDS WSW 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SSW-SW 7-10KTS WITH
LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE ROA/DAN/BLF.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FOR MID WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEY WED/THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGH GETS CLOSER THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE WITH
THE THREAT FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS ALSO INCREASING. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING THUS RESULTING IN A MULTIPLE DAY THREAT
FOR SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WED-FRI
WITH A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THUS...PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. WITH THE FRONT
JUST SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL AROUND...WILL
SEE MORE OF AN ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THREAT FOR CONVECTION
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1211 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THIS
TROUGHING...THE MOST NOTABLE SHORTWAVES INCLUDE ONE NEAR CHICAGO...
ANOTHER IN IDAHO AND A THIRD OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA. THE SHORTWAVE
NEAR CHICAGO HELPED BRING SOME OF THE RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY...WHICH HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL DEALING
WITH COLD FRONTAL INVERSION STRATUS AS SEEN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND 11-3.9UM IMAGERY. THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING HAVING A 925MB TEMP OF
10C COMPARED TO 17C AT DVN AND GRB REFLECTS THE COLD FRONT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEEN CLEARING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS DRIER AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z INL AND ABR SOUNDINGS ADVECTS
SOUTH. BOTH SOUNDINGS WERE WARMER AT 925MB AS WELL...AROUND 15C.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALSO ACCOMPANIED THE CLEARING. SOME
FOG HAS FORMED WITHIN THE CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO THE IDAHO SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING AS IT REACHES WESTERN KS BY 12Z
MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GRAND FORKS ND AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY
INTO THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...LEAVING PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME MORNING FOG DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOSTLY
PRIOR TO 13Z...OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 16C AT 00Z SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A 100-120 KT UPPER JET STREAK TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GRAND FORKS AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
CIRCULATION IS INDICATED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA...LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
JET STREAK. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE 07.12Z ECMWF AND 08.00Z NAM WANT
TO SPREAD THE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST...COMPARED TO THE 08.00Z GFS/REGIONAL
CANADIAN. THE FARTHER EAST MODELS SUGGEST 60-70 PERCENT CHANCES
WOULD BE WARRANTED WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS WOULD
BE DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH 30-40
PERCENT CHANCES. EITHER SCENARIO SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...
WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING IN WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD
BE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. STAYED WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR LOWS...THOUGH DID LEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF WI GIVEN LONGER PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED
THERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SIMILAR TO THE TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SHORTWAVE OVER GRAND FORKS AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
PUSH THE UPPER JET STREAK EASTWARD...SO EVENTUALLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE FRONTOGENETICAL
CIRCULATION. ONCE THAT OCCURS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO
FALL APART...WHICH THE 08.00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN ALL SHOW
OCCURRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST IS THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. HERE THE NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE
ECMWF ARE THE MOST BULLISH AND FARTHEST EAST...WHEREAS THE REGIONAL
CANADIAN/GFS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT SOME LOWER 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THE NORTHWEST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 2 SCENARIOS WHICH SUPPORTS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES.
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE VICINITY OF DODGE COUNTY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION FOR THE FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM KS AND OK ON
MONDAY TO THE CHICAGO AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL FIGHT DRY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY DRY.
THAT GOOD AGREEMENT FALLS APART FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHERE
THE 08.00Z GFS WANTS TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS THE 08.00Z NAM/CANADIAN/07.12Z ECMWF
REFLECT A DRY FORECAST. NEW 08.00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MAYBE SLIGHTLY
WETTER...MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST 1/3 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH LEANED DRIER...KEPT THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. DID THROW 20 PERCENT CHANCES A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW ECMWF...
HOWEVER.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST
FORCING FOR THIS TROUGH STAYS TO THE NORTH...BUT DID KEEP SOME
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN A COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD GET RELATIVELY COOL AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 6-8C
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING UNSETTLED AS A
POSITIVELY TITLED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S.. LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...BRINGING GOOD VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING
THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MON. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE/
CLOUDS...MOSTLY IN THE 7K-12K FT RANGE...ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND FOR MON MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY WITH THIS INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A RATHER MIXED
SIGNAL IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY SHRA LATE
TONIGHT/MON MORNING. FOR NOW...ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT KRST
IN THE 10-18Z PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
652 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THIS
TROUGHING...THE MOST NOTABLE SHORTWAVES INCLUDE ONE NEAR CHICAGO...
ANOTHER IN IDAHO AND A THIRD OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA. THE SHORTWAVE
NEAR CHICAGO HELPED BRING SOME OF THE RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY...WHICH HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL DEALING
WITH COLD FRONTAL INVERSION STRATUS AS SEEN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND 11-3.9UM IMAGERY. THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING HAVING A 925MB TEMP OF
10C COMPARED TO 17C AT DVN AND GRB REFLECTS THE COLD FRONT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEEN CLEARING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS DRIER AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z INL AND ABR SOUNDINGS ADVECTS
SOUTH. BOTH SOUNDINGS WERE WARMER AT 925MB AS WELL...AROUND 15C.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALSO ACCOMPANIED THE CLEARING. SOME
FOG HAS FORMED WITHIN THE CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
WISCOSNIN.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO THE IDAHO SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING AS IT REACHES WESTERN KS BY 12Z
MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GRAND FORKS ND AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY
INTO THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...LEAVING PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME MORNING FOG DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOSTLY
PRIOR TO 13Z...OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 16C AT 00Z SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A 100-120 KT UPPER JET STREAK TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GRAND FORKS AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
CIRCULATION IS INDICATED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA...LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
JET STREAK. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE 07.12Z ECMWF AND 08.00Z NAM WANT
TO SPREAD THE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST...COMPARED TO THE 08.00Z GFS/REGIONAL
CANADIAN. THE FARTHER EAST MODELS SUGGEST 60-70 PERCENT CHANCES
WOULD BE WARRANTED WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS WOULD
BE DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH 30-40
PERCENT CHANCES. EITHER SCENARIO SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...
WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING IN WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD
BE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. STAYED WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR LOWS...THOUGH DID LEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF WI GIVEN LONGER PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED
THERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SIMILAR TO THE TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SHORTWAVE OVER GRAND FORKS AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
PUSH THE UPPER JET STREAK EASTWARD...SO EVENTUALLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE FRONTOGENTICAL
CIRCULATION. ONCE THAT OCCURS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO
FALL APART...WHICH THE 08.00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN ALL SHOW
OCCURRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST IS THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. HERE THE NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE
ECMWF ARE THE MOST BULLISH AND FARTHEST EAST...WHEREAS THE REGIONAL
CANADIAN/GFS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT SOME LOWER 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THE NORTHWEST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 2 SCENARIOS WHICH SUPPORTS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES.
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE VICINITY OF DODGE COUNTY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION FOR THE FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM KS AND OK ON
MONDAY TO THE CHICAGO AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL FIGHT DRY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY DRY.
THAT GOOD AGREEMENT FALLS APART FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHERE
THE 08.00Z GFS WANTS TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS THE 08.00Z NAM/CANADIAN/07.12Z ECMWF
REFLECT A DRY FORECAST. NEW 08.00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MAYBE SLIGHTLY
WETTER...MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST 1/3 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH LEANED DRIER...KEPT THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. DID THROW 20 PERCENT CHANCES A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW ECMWF...
HOWEVER.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST
FORCING FOR THIS TROUGH STAYS TO THE NORTH...BUT DID KEEP SOME
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN A COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD GET RELATIVELY COOL AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 6-8C
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING UNSETTLED AS A
POSITIVELY TITLED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S.. LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. LATER TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE PLAINS...SPREADING MID-LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES AOA 12KFT INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY BE SEEN MONDAY AFTER 12Z...BUT PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
215 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THIS
TROUGHING...THE MOST NOTABLE SHORTWAVES INCLUDE ONE NEAR CHICAGO...
ANOTHER IN IDAHO AND A THIRD OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA. THE SHORTWAVE
NEAR CHICAGO HELPED BRING SOME OF THE RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY...WHICH HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL DEALING
WITH COLD FRONTAL INVERSION STRATUS AS SEEN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND 11-3.9UM IMAGERY. THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING HAVING A 925MB TEMP OF
10C COMPARED TO 17C AT DVN AND GRB REFLECTS THE COLD FRONT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEEN CLEARING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS DRIER AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z INL AND ABR SOUNDINGS ADVECTS
SOUTH. BOTH SOUNDINGS WERE WARMER AT 925MB AS WELL...AROUND 15C.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALSO ACCOMPANIED THE CLEARING. SOME
FOG HAS FORMED WITHIN THE CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
WISCOSNIN.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO THE IDAHO SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING AS IT REACHES WESTERN KS BY 12Z
MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GRAND FORKS ND AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY
INTO THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...LEAVING PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME MORNING FOG DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOSTLY
PRIOR TO 13Z...OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 16C AT 00Z SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A 100-120 KT UPPER JET STREAK TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GRAND FORKS AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
CIRCULATION IS INDICATED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA...LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
JET STREAK. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE 07.12Z ECMWF AND 08.00Z NAM WANT
TO SPREAD THE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST...COMPARED TO THE 08.00Z GFS/REGIONAL
CANADIAN. THE FARTHER EAST MODELS SUGGEST 60-70 PERCENT CHANCES
WOULD BE WARRANTED WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS WOULD
BE DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH 30-40
PERCENT CHANCES. EITHER SCENARIO SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...
WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING IN WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD
BE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. STAYED WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR LOWS...THOUGH DID LEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF WI GIVEN LONGER PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED
THERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SIMILAR TO THE TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SHORTWAVE OVER GRAND FORKS AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
PUSH THE UPPER JET STREAK EASTWARD...SO EVENTUALLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE FRONTOGENTICAL
CIRCULATION. ONCE THAT OCCURS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO
FALL APART...WHICH THE 08.00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN ALL SHOW
OCCURRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST IS THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. HERE THE NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE
ECMWF ARE THE MOST BULLISH AND FARTHEST EAST...WHEREAS THE REGIONAL
CANADIAN/GFS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT SOME LOWER 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THE NORTHWEST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 2 SCENARIOS WHICH SUPPORTS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES.
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE VICINITY OF DODGE COUNTY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION FOR THE FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM KS AND OK ON
MONDAY TO THE CHICAGO AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL FIGHT DRY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY DRY.
THAT GOOD AGREEMENT FALLS APART FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHERE
THE 08.00Z GFS WANTS TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS THE 08.00Z NAM/CANADIAN/07.12Z ECMWF
REFLECT A DRY FORECAST. NEW 08.00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MAYBE SLIGHTLY
WETTER...MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST 1/3 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH LEANED DRIER...KEPT THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. DID THROW 20 PERCENT CHANCES A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW ECMWF...
HOWEVER.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST
FORCING FOR THIS TROUGH STAYS TO THE NORTH...BUT DID KEEP SOME
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN A COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD GET RELATIVELY COOL AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 6-8C
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING UNSETTLED AS A
POSITIVELY TITLED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S.. LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT THAT THEY WILL HAVE MOVED PAST KRST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
06Z WHILE HANGING ON AT KLSE UNTIL 08Z OR SO. CEILINGS GO UP TO
VFR ONCE THESE MVFR CLOUDS MOVE PAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THESE VFR CEILINGS WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE THE SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR
OUT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AND POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME
FOG TO FORM AT KRST LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON THE FOG FORMING
HAS COME DOWN AS BOTH THE 08.00Z NAM AND 08.02Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 KNOTS WITH ONLY A SHALLOW
LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS. HAVE GONE FROM CATEGORICAL MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE FOG TO INCLUDING IT IN A TEMPO GROUP. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY KEEPING THE SKIES CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1121 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE AROUND A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
RUNNING SFC FRONT...FUELED BY A RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. MOSTLY JUST BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE PRODUCED SMALL HAIL.
THE FRONT WILL EASE EAST TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO CENTRAL IL. PCPN ON THE NORTHSIDE OF THE LOW COULD
ENCROACH INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...BEFORE ALL THE
FORCING MECHANISMS AND ACCOMPANYING PCPN SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS FOR SUNDAY...AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MID 70S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT STILL
FAIRLY PLEASANT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MONDAY IS PROVING CHALLENGING AS THE NAM/EC/GFS/GEM ALL PRESENT
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES RELATING TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND
BITS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QFP PRODUCTION...WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WITH THE
BITS OF ENERGY ALOFT SPARKING SHOWERS/STORMS. THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN PLACED LOW...NOT MAKING IT A FACTOR FOR THE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL TUE. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS...AS IS THE
ECMWF.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THAT A SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE RIDING IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
COULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. SOME HINTS OF THIS IN THE GEM AND
NAM...BUT NOT AS MUCH.
THE SOUTHERN FEATURE HAS MORE DYNAMICS/MOISTURE SUPPORT...AND SHOULD
PROVIDE THE GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. GOING TO LEAN TOWARD
THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS WITH THIS FOR MONDAY. WILL ALSO LIKELY
KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
GFS/ECMWF IN FAVOR OF A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING...ZONAL FLOW A LOFT
THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ALONG THIS
CURRENT...AND COULD BRING THE AREA SOME SHOWERS/STORMS. AS CAN BE
EXPECTED...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE/HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE PERIODS/SHORTWAVES THAT THE MODELS HAVE SOME
AGREEMENT ON. ONE IS FOR TUE-WED PERIOD WHEN THE GFS/EC FAVOR TAKING
A SHORTWAVE/CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FLOW
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FEATURE WEAKENS/FILLS AS IT
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES...BUT AN AREA OF PCPN IS PRODUCED
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF ITS TRACK. THE GFS BRINGS THE SHOWER THREAT A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE EC...AND THUS GREATER CHANCES FOR THE
FORECAST AREA TO GET WET. WILL SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
THE NEXT PERIOD WHERE SOLUTIONS ARE MORE SIMILAR IS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS DRIVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...SLIDING A NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS MN. GOOD
FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL FUEL THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT TRENDS BRING
THE HIGHER CHANCES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT THAT THEY WILL HAVE MOVED PAST KRST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
06Z WHILE HANGING ON AT KLSE UNTIL 08Z OR SO. CEILINGS GO UP TO
VFR ONCE THESE MVFR CLOUDS MOVE PAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THESE VFR CEILINGS WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE THE SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR
OUT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AND POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME
FOG TO FORM AT KRST LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON THE FOG FORMING
HAS COME DOWN AS BOTH THE 08.00Z NAM AND 08.02Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 KNOTS WITH ONLY A SHALLOW
LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS. HAVE GONE FROM CATEGORICAL MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE FOG TO INCLUDING IT IN A TEMPO GROUP. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY KEEPING THE SKIES CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
751 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AS LATEST WYDOT WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING PRETTY GOOD
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE I-80 SUMMIT AND AROUND CHEYENNE. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE HAS CAUSED LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. WEBCAMS SHOW DENSE FOG
ALONG INTERSTATE 8O FROM CHEYENNE TO THE SUMMIT AND WITH THE
UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-MORNING...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILL ZONE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CENTRAL LARAMIE
COUNTY SINCE VIS AT CYS HAS DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. SHORTWAVE
SHOWS UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
WY. GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA HOWEVER INTO
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 18Z AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA
BY 00Z. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
THERE IS BY EARLY AFTN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THIS SEEMS
LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP. TSTM
POTENTIAL REALLY DROPS OFF AFTER AROUND 21Z BEHIND THE FROPA. THE
COMBINATION OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE PLAINS AND
ESPECIALLY THE PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTN THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO
RAPIDLY SHUT OFF BY LATE EVENING. IT WILL BE A QUITE COOL NIGHT
UPCOMING AS THE SFC HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST WY. GUIDANCE
HAS LOWS IN LARAMIE AROUND FREEZING SO DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO
CONSIDER A FROST ADVISORY IN THE LARAMIE VALLEY AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE EXCELLENT BY LATE TONIGHT. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS
STILL PROGGED OVER THE REGION BY MON AND INTO TUES WITH PW VALUES
DROPPING TO BELOW 0.5 INCHES. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIM AND DONT
REALLY HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU TUES. MAY EVEN HAVE
TROUBLE GETTING MUCH CUMULUS ON MON (LI VALUES ARE ABOVE 3C).
WHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON MON...THE BIGGER WARMUP IS NOT
UNTIL TUES WHEN 700MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 14C. THIS TRANSLATES
INTO A 20-25 DEGREE WARMUP COMPARED TO THIS WEEKENDS COOL TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN
THE LATE MORNING. WESTERLY SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
THE LLVLS SOMEWHAT DRY SO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY BE TOO STRONG
FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE BETTER UPPER
FORCING MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON...LOOKING AT A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO THE PAC NW. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SO TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER OUT WEST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE EAST WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT
HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO EXPECT A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST UPSLOPE FORCING AND HIGHER
LLVL MOISTURE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN WY/MT. THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS TIME SO LOOKING AT SFC
TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH 700 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 12-14C. EVEN WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEESIDE TROUGH AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS...AND CONTINUED LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT COULD CAP THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LEFT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BUT NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOP. THE
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. SFC FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT
OF HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW T-STORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...BUT CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AND MAY ONLY LIFT TO MVFR HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 20Z. ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FOR MOST AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE T-STORMS ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO IFR
FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING IN WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE...WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS ON MONDAY WILL CAUSE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20-30 PERCENT. MORE WARMING IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT FOR
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO WANE SLOWLY AS MELTING FROM SOURCE SNOW
COVER DIMINISHES. STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE ALONG
THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCATIONS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MINOR FLOODING WILL DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLAYCOMB
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
637 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE HAS CAUSED LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. WEBCAMS SHOW DENSE FOG
ALONG INTERSTATE 8O FROM CHEYENNE TO THE SUMMIT AND WITH THE
UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-MORNING...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILL ZONE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CENTRAL LARAMIE
COUNTY SINCE VIS AT CYS HAS DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. SHORTWAVE
SHOWS UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
WY. GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA HOWEVER INTO
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 18Z AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA
BY 00Z. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
THERE IS BY EARLY AFTN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THIS SEEMS
LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP. TSTM
POTENTIAL REALLY DROPS OFF AFTER AROUND 21Z BEHIND THE FROPA. THE
COMBINATION OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE PLAINS AND
ESPECIALLY THE PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTN THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO
RAPIDLY SHUT OFF BY LATE EVENING. IT WILL BE A QUITE COOL NIGHT
UPCOMING AS THE SFC HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST WY. GUIDANCE
HAS LOWS IN LARAMIE AROUND FREEZING SO DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO
CONSIDER A FROST ADVISORY IN THE LARAMIE VALLEY AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE EXCELLENT BY LATE TONIGHT. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS
STILL PROGGED OVER THE REGION BY MON AND INTO TUES WITH PW VALUES
DROPPING TO BELOW 0.5 INCHES. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIM AND DONT
REALLY HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU TUES. MAY EVEN HAVE
TROUBLE GETTING MUCH CUMULUS ON MON (LI VALUES ARE ABOVE 3C).
WHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON MON...THE BIGGER WARMUP IS NOT
UNTIL TUES WHEN 700MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 14C. THIS TRANSLATES
INTO A 20-25 DEGREE WARMUP COMPARED TO THIS WEEKENDS COOL TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN
THE LATE MORNING. WESTERLY SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
THE LLVLS SOMEWHAT DRY SO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY BE TOO STRONG
FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE BETTER UPPER
FORCING MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON...LOOKING AT A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO THE PAC NW. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SO TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER OUT WEST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE EAST WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT
HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO EXPECT A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST UPSLOPE FORCING AND HIGHER
LLVL MOISTURE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN WY/MT. THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS TIME SO LOOKING AT SFC
TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH 700 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 12-14C. EVEN WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEESIDE TROUGH AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS...AND CONTINUED LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT COULD CAP THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LEFT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BUT NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOP. THE
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. SFC FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT
OF HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW T-STORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...BUT CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AND MAY ONLY LIFT TO MVFR HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 20Z. ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FOR MOST AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE T-STORMS ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO IFR
FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING IN WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE...WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS ON MONDAY WILL CAUSE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20-30 PERCENT. MORE WARMING IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT FOR
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO WANE SLOWLY AS MELTING FROM SOURCE SNOW
COVER DIMINISHES. STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE ALONG
THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCATIONS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MINOR FLOODING WILL DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE HAS CAUSED LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. WEBCAMS SHOW DENSE FOG
ALONG INTERSTATE 8O FROM CHEYENNE TO THE SUMMIT AND WITH THE
UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-MORNING...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILL ZONE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CENTRAL LARAMIE
COUNTY SINCE VIS AT CYS HAS DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. SHORTWAVE
SHOWS UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
WY. GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA HOWEVER INTO
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 18Z AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA
BY 00Z. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
THERE IS BY EARLY AFTN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THIS SEEMS
LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP. TSTM
POTENTIAL REALLY DROPS OFF AFTER AROUND 21Z BEHIND THE FROPA. THE
COMBINATION OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE PLAINS AND
ESPECIALLY THE PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTN THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO
RAPIDLY SHUT OFF BY LATE EVENING. IT WILL BE A QUITE COOL NIGHT
UPCOMING AS THE SFC HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST WY. GUIDANCE
HAS LOWS IN LARAMIE AROUND FREEZING SO DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO
CONSIDER A FROST ADVISORY IN THE LARAMIE VALLEY AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE EXCELLENT BY LATE TONIGHT. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS
STILL PROGGED OVER THE REGION BY MON AND INTO TUES WITH PW VALUES
DROPPING TO BELOW 0.5 INCHES. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIM AND DONT
REALLY HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU TUES. MAY EVEN HAVE
TROUBLE GETTING MUCH CUMULUS ON MON (LI VALUES ARE ABOVE 3C).
WHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON MON...THE BIGGER WARMUP IS NOT
UNTIL TUES WHEN 700MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 14C. THIS TRANSLATES
INTO A 20-25 DEGREE WARMUP COMPARED TO THIS WEEKENDS COOL TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN
THE LATE MORNING. WESTERLY SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
THE LLVLS SOMEWHAT DRY SO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY BE TOO STRONG
FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE BETTER UPPER
FORCING MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON...LOOKING AT A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO THE PAC NW. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SO TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER OUT WEST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE EAST WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT
HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO EXPECT A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST UPSLOPE FORCING AND HIGHER
LLVL MOISTURE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN WY/MT. THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS TIME SO LOOKING AT SFC
TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH 700 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 12-14C. EVEN WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEESIDE TROUGH AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS...AND CONTINUED LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT COULD CAP THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LEFT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BUT NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOP. THE
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. SFC FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT
OF HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW T-STORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...BUT CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND
MAY ONLY LIFT TO MVFR HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS POSSIBLE
AFTER 20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS ON MONDAY WILL CAUSE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20-30 PERCENT. MORE WARMING IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT FOR
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO WANE SLOWLY AS MELTING FROM SOURCE SNOW
COVER DIMINISHES. STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE ALONG
THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCATIONS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MINOR FLOODING WILL DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
137 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
05Z REFLECTIVITY INDICATING DEVELOPING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
FORMING OFF THE COAST OF NJ ALONG A WEAK ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AND
UNDER A PASSING WEAK VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE. WEAK ELY FLOW WILL SLOWLY
TAKE THE STORMS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONVERGENCE PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING ALONG
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD ACT AS THE TRIGGERING POINT
FOR ISO-SCT SHOWERS...WITH THE 03Z HRRR AND 00Z MESO RUNS
FOLLOWING THIS TREND. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISO-SCT
WORDING WITH ISO TSTM TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 12Z.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DIURNAL
RANGES SMALL WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH THE UPPER 60S NYC
METRO.
IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE WARM...MOIST AIR COMING ACROSS THE COOLER
NEAR SHORE WATERS...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ALONG THE COAST...WITH PATCHY FOG INLAND.
SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROF TO THE WEST...A DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE...AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALL POINT TO SCT CONVECTION ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUE AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BE A SOURCE
OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT...INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING ALOFT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE ARE NO
DISCERNIBLE FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO PINPOINT A TIME AND/OR LOCATION
FOR CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2
INCHES...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...THE STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
WEAK.
OTHERWISE...WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO AROUND 80 NYC METRO AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES
FROM SMITH POINT EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT PASSES EARLY WED. THIS BRINGS IN SOME STABLE ELY
COMPONENT FLOW. TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE SOLID LLVL MOISTURE...THEN
ANOTHER LAYER OF DEEPER MOISTURE ABV H5. NO INSTABILITY OF NOTE.
THIS SETUP WOULD GENERALLY YIELD A DRY/SPRINKLES FCST...BUT WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND RESIDUAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...LEFT
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA IN THE FCST. IF UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS
NOT SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST...THE MAINLY DRY DAY COULD VERIFY. THE
BOUNDARY S OF THE REGION RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT THU. TIMING ATTM IS
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TIMING IS CRITICAL...WITH THE BEST CAPE
ACCORDING TO CURRENT PROGS LURKING SW OF THE CWA WITH A BRN AROUND
45. THERE WILL BE A SVR THREAT IN THAT SECTOR. AS A RESULT...CANNOT
RULE OUT A SVR THREAT THU AFTN ESPECIALLY NRN NJ IF THE FRONTAL
TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE A LITTLE FASTER. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...SO TSTMS SHOULD BLOSSOM DURING THE DAY. TOO FAR OUT FOR
THE MESOSCALE DATA...BUT THE GFS GIVES 25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND
SOME SBCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. COULD BE A GOOD BALANCE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AND SOME SVR. THE H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS INTO QUEBEC ON
SAT AND USHERS IN HIPRES INTO THE NERN CONUS. THE CDFNT TIMING IS
PROGGED DURING THE DAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE SLOWER. SHRA CHCS END BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRY WX BLOWS IN
THRU MON. THE STRETCH OF FAIR WX MAY CONTINUE THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 08Z.
SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z. CONDITIONS
FALL BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND 00Z. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF...OTHER THAN A
TEMPO GROUP.
WINDS GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KNYC
TERMINALS WHERE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-7 KT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/PSBL
TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN ON TRACK AS FORECASTED.
A PERSISTENT...BUT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SEAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH EARLY WED MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE FRONT NEARS.
CONDITIONS WED THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY BLW SCA LVLS. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT ON THU AND FRI. THERE IS A
LOW CHC THAT SEAS OFF MONTAUK COULD REACH THE 5 FT THRESHOLD AT
TIMES DURING THESE PERIODS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY COME
WITH A COLD FRONT FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...SEARS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE FORECAST IS REDUCED VSBY IN SMOKE FROM
BROWARD COUNTY FIRE. CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE NOT MATERIALIZING
LIKE 24 HOURS AGO AND IT APPEARS MORE MIXING IS TAKING PLACE
ALLOWING FOR THE SMOKE TO DISPERSE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE UNLIKE
LAST NIGHT. IN ADDITION, SURFACE FLOW HAS BECOME NEARLY CALM WITH
LAND BREEZE NOT DEVELOPING. THUS, HAVE REMOVED REDUCED VSBY IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SMOKE IN A SHORT
TIME PERIOD AROUND 10-12Z AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. SEA BREEZES
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK
SO STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS THIS AREA HAS NOT SEEN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY. SO WILL REMOVE POPS OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WHERE A 20 PERCENT
POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRE OVER WESTERN BROWARD COUNTY WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS A DRAINAGE FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION. SO WILL CONTINUE THE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD SMOKE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY SMOKE
RIGHT ALONG THE EAST COASTAL AREAS.
THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDER OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN PLACE.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING IN -9 TO -11C 500 MB TEMPS TO THE AREA BY MIDDLE
TO END OF THE WEEK. SO A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THEREFORE...THE
HWO PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WORDING FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/
AVIATION...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN TERMS OF SMOKE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. LARGE WILDFIRE OVER RURAL BROWARD HAS GROWN TO NEARLY
20,000 ACRES. JUST SPOKE TO FLORIDA FORESTRY SERVICE AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MISSED THE FIRE TODAY...SO SMOKE EMISSIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WIND FLOW IS ALREADY LIGHT AND HRRR MODEL SHOWS
OFFSHORE NW LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ACT TO
RE-SEND SMOKE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PIN POINTING HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GO
AND WHERE THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IS IMPOSSIBLE. IN
COLLABORATION WITH CWSU MIAMI, OPTED TO GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AND WILL AMEND ACCORDINGLY AS
IFR IS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. ADDED VCTS ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING BY
NOON TUE FOR THE EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPMENT THEN.
/GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE GULF
BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
HAS ALSO PUSHED INLAND DEVELOPING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY STRETCHING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNDOWN WITH HEATING LOSS.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE DUE TO AN ONGOING
WILDFIRE IN NORTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY. SMOKE LINGERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE BROWARD METRO AREAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA AS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SMOKE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROBLEM AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
AGAIN. THEREFORE KEPT PATCHY TO AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL YIELD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. AN H5 TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY BUT
SHOULD STILL BE A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE
APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE DEPICTED BY THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING VALUES IN THE -9C TO -11C
RANGE. YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND KEEPING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THESE COULD
BE STRONG DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AVIATION...
AFTERNOON HEATING AND MIXING COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HAS LED TO A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
REGARDING THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMOKE FROM
THE LARGE WILDFIRE. ALTHOUGH THE SMOKE CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS...WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
TRENDING DOWN. LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE
CONCERN WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON THE LATEST STATE OF
THE WILDFIRE. FOR NOW...THIS TAF PACKAGE DOES NOT INCLUDE SMOKE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS REMAINING WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
156 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE PLUS A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
BARNWELL AND BAMBERG COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH AT 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SO CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING THROUGH SUNRISE. A QUASI-
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR MODELS SHOWS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND
REACHING THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS NEAR DAYBREAK. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WARM MID
AND LOW LEVELS WITH A BIT OF A CAPPING INVERSION. DESPITE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF A TRIGGER AND ANY UPPER SUPPORT AND THE
INHIBITING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION AND WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE THOUGH WITH FAVORABLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR
AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. WILL KEEP WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID...POSSIBLY SOME
UPPER...90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTHERLY 500MB WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN MOIST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY WITH DIMINISHING
POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION WANES DUE TO LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM IN
THE AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING AROUND 1.7 INCHES WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT WILL
LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA. SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING
RETURNS BY SUNDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AND EXPECT DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION EXCEPT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND CLEARING SKIES COULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG
FORMATION. HOWEVER...KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 20-25 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET AT 1000-2000 FT WHICH MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL
CARRY PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS AT OGB/AGS 07Z-12Z TIME PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT OGB DUE TO OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
EARLIER STORMS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ANY TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
349 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
248 AM CDT
TODAY...
FOCUS TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE...AS GUIDANCE
HAS MAINTAINED SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. EARLY THIS MORNING THE
DRY AIR OVER NORTHEAST IL REMAINS IN PLACE...AS DEW POINTS HAVE HELD
IN THE LOW/MID 40S. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS/DEW PTS HAVE RISEN TO ARND 60. THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ONTARIO...WITH THE SFC LOW ANALYZED OVER THE OZARKS. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO TIGHTEN...AND CONTINUE TO FILTER THE DRIER
AIR INTO NORTHEAST IL THRU THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING CLEARLY SHOWS THIS...AS THE CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO THIN.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIP...THERE
IS AGREEMENT THAT THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN CWFA BY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE IN THE LLVL MOISTURE...WITH
PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 1.5-1.75" MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IN/OH AND SLOWLY SEEP WEST INTO NORTHEAST
IL. LOCAL ARW8KM SUGGESTS THE BEST TIMING FOR COVERAGE/PRECIP
ARRIVING NORTH OF I-80 WILL LIKELY BE AFT 20Z...AND THE MOST RECENT
CYCLES WOULD SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE GIVEN SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID THE LLVL MOISTURE
AND DRY AIR OVER LOWER MI WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW AS WELL...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN
400J/KG AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION THE PRECIP
CHALLENGES...TEMPS WILL EQUALLY BE TOUGH TODAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER SHIELDING THE DIRECT LIGHT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO WARM AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO GENERALLY ARND 70 TO
LOW 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN
NORTHEAST IL AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
500MB CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO TRANSITION BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE EARLY
WED MORNING. REMNANTS FROM THE SFC RIDGE CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN POSE CHALLENGES TO THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST CWFA...AND COULD SEE THIS NEEDING TO BE
FURTHER ADJUSTED/FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTHEAST. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. HI-RES LOCAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS
EVEN LESS COVERAGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD...WITH THE OPER NAM TRENDING
IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. HAVE BROUGHT QPF TOTALS DOWN
FURTHER...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA. IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT BY MIDDAY WED THE PRECIP COULD BE ENDING IN THE
WESTERN CWFA...AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PIVOTS EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING SFC RIDGING DEVELOPING ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH WED
NGT...AND HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF THE DRY AIR FOR WED NGT TO
REFLECT THIS.
TEMPS WED WILL ONCE AGAIN HINGE UPON CLOUD COVER. SFC WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE NORTHERLY...BACKING AND DIMINISHING TO NEARLY CALM LATE WED
NGT. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING...HAVE TRIMMED
TEMPS BACK TO ARND 70/LOW 70S. BUT CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH...AND COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WED.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THUR...WITH
FLOW QUICKLY TURNING SOUTH AND ADVECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO
THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING PASSING WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THUR...EXPECT THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THUR NGT TO BE RATHER QUIET. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE LOW COVERAGE AND NOT STRONG AT THIS
TIME GIVEN SUCH A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THEN DRY AIR RETURNS THUR
NGT AND WILL PERSIST THRU SAT NGT AS BROAD SFC RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE REGION. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...IT DOES APPEAR SOME
CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ENSEMBLES
ARE LEANING TOWARDS BROAD TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
AND ALLOWING FOR SOME AMPLIFICATIONS TO A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FOR THE
GREAT LAKES SUN/MON. FLOW SHUD TURN SOUTHERLY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 80S. IN
ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS...SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASING BY MID DAY.
* ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING WITH MORE PREVAILING -SHRA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
* VFR CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
QUIET OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTING AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A SLOW BUT STEADY
PROGRESSION NORTH WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH THE PREVAILING SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS EARLY EVENING...BUT WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PERIOD TO BE AN
OVERALL WET PERIOD BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY. NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY MORE TOWARDS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS BETTER MOISTURE AND PRECIP SHIELD MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...DO EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN LOWERING. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE LOW MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR RANGE WILL MOVE
NORTH OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS BECOMING LIKELY BY MID DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA AND TIMING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH
TIMING...LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS RESULTING
IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE...WITH
THIS DIRECTION REMAINING TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE MORE TOWARDS THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE. A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY KEEP THESE SPEEDS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
313 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
07z/2am radar imagery shows initial band of light rain associated
with approaching upper low lifting slowly northward across central
Illinois, with the northern edge of the rain extending along a
Rantoul to Macomb line. Airmass sampled by both the KILX and KDVN
evening upper air soundings was quite dry, so precipitation has
been slow to spread northward. As airmass slowly moistens, rain
will eventually reach the far northern KILX CWA around Galesburg
and Lacon by daybreak. Additional showers will develop across the
area throughout the day, as warm/moist air flows northward from
the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the system. Forecast soundings
indicate only weak elevated instability later this morning into
the afternoon, suggesting mainly showers with perhaps a few
isolated thunderstorms. Better instability will be found further
southeast across Kentucky and Tennessee where a slight risk for
severe weather is in place. Due to extensive cloud cover and
occasional showers, high temperatures today will be held in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Upper low will track from northeast Oklahoma early this morning
into north-central Illinois by Wednesday morning. While a mid-level
dry slot may tend to work into southeast Illinois tonight thus
reducing rain chances there, deformation zone precip will likely
be concentrated along/west of I-55. Will continue to carry likely
POPs through tonight before gradually dropping to chance POPs on
Wednesday. All model solutions show the low E/NE of Illinois by
00z Thu, so will bring the rain chances to an end Wednesday night.
Based on the latest projections, additional rainfall with this
system between now and Wednesday afternoon will generally be
between half an inch and one inch, with a corridor of heavier
rainfall in excess of 1 inch along/near the I-55 corridor.
Once the upper low exits, the next system will quickly come into
the picture on Thursday as a northern stream wave tracks through
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Weak cold front will push
into central Illinois Thursday afternoon/evening, potentially
triggering a few showers/storms. Think this system will have
limited moisture to work with, so will only mention low chance
POPs as the boundary passes. Otherwise, Thursday will be a partly
sunny and warm day with highs in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
High pressure will build into the Midwest behind the departing
front for Friday, providing cooler and less humid conditions. High
temperatures will remain in the 70s, while overnight lows dip into
the middle to upper 50s. As the high slides off to the east,
warmer and more humid airmass will return early next week. Models
are showing an upper ridge building across the eastern CONUS with
an approaching frontal boundary losing eastward momentum as it
becomes parallel with the upper flow. Consensus brings scattered
showers/storms into west-central Illinois on Sunday, then further
east across the entire area Sunday night into Monday. Do not think
this will be a wash-out by any means, as upper heights will be
rising and boundary will be dissipating. Main weather story early
next week will be the very warm/humid conditions, as highs rise
into the middle to upper 80s and dewpoints climb well into the
60s.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
A wet period ahead the next 24 hours across the central IL airports.
Will lean on RAP and NAM models for this forecast. Light rain
around SPI and DEC with vsbys still at 10 miles will spread
northward to CMI in next hour and BMI and PIA between 08-09Z. VFR
conditions the next few hours with MVFR vsbys and ceilings
developing from south to north later tonight into Tue morning with
moderate rain at times. 1004 mb low pressure over ne OK with a
warm front over southern MO into the southern tip of IL and sw KY
will lift ne into southeast IL Tue and Tue night and bring the
widespread rain showers along with isolated thunderstorms Tue
afternoon with the rain heavier along I-72 TAF sites. Winds mainly
east to ENE next 24 hours at 6-12 kts and strongest during the day
Tue.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1256 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
908 PM CDT
GOING FORECAST LARGELY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. COUPLE SHOWERS
DID POP ON THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LONG SINCE MET
THEIR DEMISE. LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NORTHEAST TOWARD US. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING IN THE
LARGE DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN INCHING NORTHWARD...SO BIGGEST
CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WILL BE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS
FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS LITTLE DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS PRECIP SO
REALLY JUST ANTICIPATE PLAIN OLD RAIN WITH LITTLE OR NO THUNDER
THREAT.
IZZI
//PREV DISCUSSION...
301 PM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL WAVES ARE
FOUND FROM OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH ARE MOVING EASTWARD.
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW IS A SOUTHWESTERLY STREAM OF MOIST FLOW
WHICH IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO NORTHERN
OHIO. TO THE NORTHWEST...A TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALBERTA WITH SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LINED UP TO THE WEST OVER THE
PACIFIC. IN ADDITION...A BROAD LOW IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND THIS CUTOFF
WILL INTERACT LATER IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND OVER THE CONUS
AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOCALLY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC BACK ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA ON ITS
SOUTHWEST FLANK. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER LOW IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ALBERTA.
TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FLUX...THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA INLAND OF THE
LAKE. RADAR SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WHICH ARE MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
FADE WITH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR ROGUE SHOWER IN THE
FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION REMAINS SLOW. EXPECT THAT TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BROAD
SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BUT THIS LOOKS WEAK
AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY THERMAL ADVECTION TO PROVIDE ADDED
SUPPORT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE TROUBLE
HANDLING THE PRECIP TRENDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY DUE IN
PART TO THE HANDLING OF DRIER AIR ENTRAINED FROM THE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER LOW AND A DRY SLOT WRAPPING
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST FORCING WILL PUSH NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LIKELY REACHING SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING
BUT TAKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVEN EARLY EVENING TO REACH AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THEN IT BECOMES A MATTER OF
HOW WELL ORGANIZED RAIN REMAINS AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS BY
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SO FORCING WOULD
PRESUMABLY WEAKEN LEADING TO A DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FORCING DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATE IN THE
DAY. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS BETTER
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES IN AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOTAL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
AIR AT VARIOUS TIMES AND THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF BEST ORGANIZED
FORCING. THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVERALL WITH A BROADER AREA AFFECTED BY MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE NORTHWEST CWA LOOKS TO
RECEIVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN. HIGHS TUESDAY MAY BE COOLEST SOUTH
PROVIDED RAIN STARTS IN THE MORNING...WITH NORTHERN AREAS REMAINING
DRY ENOUGH TO WARM UP...POTENTIALLY TO NEAR THE HIGHS OF TODAY. THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OFF THE LAKE SO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WEDNESDAY
AND LIKELY BE PRECIP DEPENDENT. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO IF PRECIP REMAINS SCATTERED AND
EVEN ENDS LATER IN THE DAY THEN HIGHS MAY WELL REBOUND INTO THE MID
OR EVEN UPPER 70S...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ONCE
AGAIN.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND THEN
LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO TAKING A SURFACE LOW WITH IT. A
COOL FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW AND BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA SOME
TIME THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF PHASING WITH
A WEAK TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...WHICH WILL BE WHATS LEFT OF
THE CUTOFF OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS MAY YIELD A BETTER PRECIP
CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS VARIED ON THE DETAILS BUT WITH
THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND TRACKING NORTHEAST THE FRONT WOULD
LIKELY BE PRETTY STRETCHED OUT SUPPORTING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MAY PHASE
WITH ENERGY EJECTING FROM A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWING A DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A STEADY WARMING TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY TO THE LOWER
80S BY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER FRIDAY AND TO A LESSER DEGREE SATURDAY.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS...SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASING BY MID DAY.
* ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING WITH MORE PREVAILING -SHRA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
* VFR CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
QUIET OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTING AREA OF SHOWERS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A SLOW BUT STEADY
PROGRESSION NORTH WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH THE PREVAILING SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS EARLY EVENING...BUT WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PERIOD TO BE AN
OVERALL WET PERIOD BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY. NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY MORE TOWARDS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS BETTER MOISTURE AND PRECIP SHIELD MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...DO EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN LOWERING. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE LOW MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR RANGE WILL MOVE
NORTH OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS BECOMING LIKELY BY MID DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA AND TIMING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH
TIMING...LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
219 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS
WILL GENERICALLY BE 10-15 KT BUT WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PASSES TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH THURSDAY AND THEN TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS BECOME EAST AGAIN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY AND WINDS BECOME
SOUTH AND REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
Will update the forecast tonight with rain moving in quicker and
already into our sw counties at mid evening as far ne as a Winchester
to Springfield to Shelbyville to Effingham line and lifting northward.
1003 mb low pressure along the OK/KS border with warm front extending
eastward into sw MO and central TN. Isentropic lift ahead of warm
front will develop light to moderate rain northward across central
IL late this evening and overnight. Leaned on the HRRR and RAP
models for timing this rain. SPC day1 outlook for tonight has risk
of thunder tonight sw of a Quincy to Decatur to Terre Haute line
and may need to added isolated thunder overight in sw CWA.
Otherwise rest of forecast looks good tonight with lows mostly in
the lower 60s with ENE winds near 10 mph or less.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
A wet period ahead the next 24 hours across the central IL airports.
Will lean on RAP and NAM models for this forecast. Light rain
around SPI and DEC with vsbys still at 10 miles will spread
northward to CMI in next hour and BMI and PIA between 08-09Z. VFR
conditions the next few hours with MVFR vsbys and ceilings
developing from south to north later tonight into Tue morning with
moderate rain at times. 1004 mb low pressure over ne OK with a
warm front over southern MO into the southern tip of IL and sw KY
will lift ne into southeast IL Tue and Tue night and bring the
widespread rain showers along with isolated thunderstorms Tue
afternoon with the rain heavier along I-72 TAF sites. Winds mainly
east to ENE next 24 hours at 6-12 kts and strongest during the day
Tue.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
Shower chances will highlight this forecast, as a long wave trough
slowly advances from the Plains across the mid-Mississippi River
Valley through Wednesday night. A fast moving front will increase
shower chances again later Thursday and Thursday night before high
pressure provides a break from the rain through much of next
weekend.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night.
Satellite and radar images show a well-defined low pressure system
moving across S Kansas/N Oklahoma. An elongated region of
isentropic lift ahead of the low is creating enhanced mid level
cloud cover as far east as Ohio, which includes the southern half
of Illinois. Radar returns over our southern counties is not
reaching the ground due to a dry sub-cloud airmass. Gradual
saturation of the boundary layer will continue this evening, with
showers becoming likely after midnight south of Springfield to
Mattoon. The HRRR and NCEP 4km WRF show a band of showers/storms
affecting our southern counties after midnight tonight, so we
bumped up PoPs to categorical in the southern third of our
forecast area late tonight. It appears the band will progress
northward on Tuesday with a dry period developing from south to
north behind the band. There should be enough residual moisture
that a couple of additional showers could develop during the day
even where rain may end for a time in the morning. We tried to add
some detail to the PoPs on Tuesday to follow that band of rain
with categorical PoPs, and likely PoPs bordering the band.
The occluded low is projected to move into southern IL Tuesday
night, with waves of dry air wrapped into the low. That should
help to limit showers in the southeast half of our forecast area
later Tuesday night as diurnal stabilization helps decrease
updrafts. The coverage and timing of precip Tues night remains
problematic directly under the low center, but likely PoPs were
left over a majority of the area for now.
Wednesday will see showery precip linger in at least the eastern
half of IL as the low pressure system begins to depart into
Indiana. The trough axis is projected to reach the Indiana border
toward 00z/7pm, so subsidence should become more prominent west of
I-55 as the day progresses.
Wed night and Thursday could end up being a dry period before a
cold front triggers the next round of showers/storms later Thurs
afternoon and Thur night. Ridging is projected to develop during
Wed night and Thursday with somewhat drier and warmer air. Thursdays
highs may even have enough help from sunshine to reach the low
80s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday.
Dry and warmer weather is forecast for Friday into Sunday as an
upper level ridge and surface high pressure take control of the
weather in the region. Highs may remain in the upper 70s Friday
but should warm to the low 80s Sat and Sunday. A weather
disturbance previously indicated for Sunday in yesterdays models
has been delayed by both of today`s 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF.
Increasing chances of rain/storms appears in both of those models
starting Sunday night west of I-55 and expanding eastward on
Monday. Chance PoPs were included in both those periods to account
for the trends in model consensus.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1219 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
As an upper low continues southeast out of Kansas into this
evening, we should see the areas of light rain over far western
Kansas continue to diminish. Areas generally east of Highway 283
will see areas of rain, possibly along with an isolated
thunderstorm, continuing into the evening hours. Precipitation
chances should come to an end along the Highway 281 corridor
around or shortly after midnight.
The latest RUC and NAM model output shows the strong 850 millibar
jet propagating out of far southwest Kansas by 6 or 7 pm and lining
up more along a Hays/Larned to Dodge City line. The current wind
advisory goes until 7 pm. Will let it go until expiration time as
winds should be diminishing around or shortly after then.
Tuesday should be mostly sunny and fairly mild as an upper level
ridge moves over the central Plains. High temperatures should top
out in the mid 80s over far southwest Kansas with highs nearing 80
in central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
Subsidence will dominate the region Tuesday night and into early
Wednesday. Mainly sunny and much warmer conditions are expected
heading into Wednesday late morning and afternoon with the
development of southerly winds and much drier boundary layer air
working downslope with time into far western Kansas. An upper jet
immediately south of the region will drag an attendant
disturbance/shortwave into the Central Plains Wednesday night. The
ECMWF/GFS and NAM all model impressive 850-700 mb moisture transport
ahead of this wave giving high probability of another MCS in some
form. Based on the different model solutions, it seems reasonable
discreet cells could form out of Colorado in the early or mid
evening with cold pool development occurring farther east.
probabilities for precipitation were increased to at least 50% in
the far west to "Likely" (60-70%) farther east. By Thursday morning,
cloudy conditions may linger for much if not all of the morning
behind a surface cold front/cold moist surface outflow air, which
various models have forecast not to exceed the upper 70s.
Deeper into the period, for Friday and through the weekend will
bring at least one additional chance for organized thunderstorms. By
Friday an upper ridge will begin to build back into the central
Plains returning prevailing southerlies to southwest Kansas. The GFS
overturns instability on Saturday which is not well supported by the
ECMWF. More model consensus falls of convective development returning
Saturday night as the main upper wave lifts into the Northern
Plains with it`s attendant upper jet streak diving into the the
Central Plains inducing surface pressure falls and left front exit
region forcing for large scale lift. These model solutions focus
deep moist convection mainly over the Interstate 70 corridor of our
forecast area for the likely areas for storms. The far southwest
remains far behind the dryline.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
An upper low and associated low cloud shield will move east
with skies clearing and northwest winds decreasing. VFR conditions
are expected today into tonight with light northwest winds becoming
light southeast by mid to late afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 91 59 80 / 0 10 70 10
GCK 59 92 59 80 / 0 10 60 10
EHA 59 91 60 81 / 0 10 50 10
LBL 58 94 60 81 / 0 10 50 10
HYS 57 87 60 78 / 0 10 70 10
P28 59 90 66 83 / 10 10 70 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
10/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
AREAS OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY VFR CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS PRODUCING A BKN BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA FM NEAR KSHV SW TO KUTS. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
REACH BPT/AEX BETWEEN 08Z-09Z AND LCH 09Z-10Z...WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO RECENT HRRR RUNS. SCT TO NUMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REACH THE ACADIANA TERMINALS
BY MID-MORNING TUES. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TUES AFTN INTO TUES EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWERED VISBYS/CIGS DURING
SHOWERS/STORMS. SLY WINDS WILL TREND MORE SWLY TUESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STALLED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK AS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE RE-DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS
LINING UP NICELY ALONG TAIL OF SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. ONLY
CHANGE TONIGHT WILL BE TO LOWER POPS UP TO 06Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 85 70 88 / 60 50 30 10
KBPT 74 86 71 91 / 60 60 20 10
KAEX 72 84 68 89 / 60 50 30 10
KLFT 76 85 72 88 / 40 60 40 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1143 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA MAY APPROACH THE KMCB AND KBTR TAF SITES AROUND 14 OR
15Z. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS HANDLED BY TEMPO GROUPS IN EACH OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. 11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING. BALLOON BURST 14 MILES
DOWNRANGE NORTHEAST IN THE BOGUE CHITTO NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE
JUST EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER WEST OF PICAYUNE AT AN ALTITUDE OF
20.3 MILES. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO 866 MB...THEN PSEUDO
WITH A BIT OF WARM LAYER TO 540 MB THOUGH NOT REALLY AN INVERSION
AND NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS PAST DAYS. TYPICAL INVERTED-V MOISTURE
PROFILE SURFACE TO 866 MB/ 4300 FT THEN SPREADING TO DRYNESS
ABOVE. WINDS WERE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY 10-35 KNOTS TO 30KFT BEFORE
BACKING TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO 33KFT...THEN SW-NW ABOVE. TROPOPAUSE
WAS AT 144MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -66.6C. PEAK WINDS WERE PRETTY
LOW...215/36KT AT ONLY 11.9KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS UP TO 1.66
INCHES...LIFTED INDEX -7...CAPE 2745 J/KG BUT HELICITY ONLY 40
M2/S2.
RAN CHAP ON THIS EVENING`S SOUNDING WITH 346K LIFT AT LFC/LCL
LEVEL OF 866MB YIELDED 53 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE...GUST POTENTIAL 28
KT WHICH WAS VERIFIED AT KMCB WITH A 28 KT REPORT IN CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. CHAP ON GFS 18Z RUN DOES SHOW A PEAK IN THREAT
MARGINALLY SEVERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10AM AND 1 PM TUESDAY. 24/RR
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF JUST WEST OF TAMPA.
STACKED UPPER/SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND EAST TEXAS. A LINE OF
BROKEN CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF MEMPHIS...TO
MONROE...TO HOUSTON AT 3 PM. ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT PRESENT...WITH MAIN CONVECTION ABOUT 100 MILES
WEST OF THE AREA. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. WINDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE MIDDLE 90S. DEW
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE.
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW OVER THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW BEFORE BEGINNING
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. NEVER REALLY HAVE A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LOCAL AREA
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NEAR THE WEST EDGE OF OUR CWA AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT HRRR AND 3KM WRF RUNS.
REDEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS THE WEST EDGE
OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS WILL BE UNCAPPED FOR THE MOST PART BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. SHOULD BE SOME DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN...AT LEAST EARLY
ON...TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS
ON TUESDAY. ABOUT THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. WILL BE CARRYING HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...DEFINITELY ABOVE 12Z
MAV POP GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO MET/ECMWF VALUES.
MAIN TROF AXIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
THREAT ACTUALLY OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO
CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THERE IS GOING TO BE A DRY DAY
THIS WEEK...IT WILL BE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES ON TUESDAY...IN THE MID 80S...AND IF RAIN OCCURS
MID TO LATE MORNING...THAT COULD STILL BE TOO WARM. SOME
MODERATION OCCURS WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD BE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY. 35
LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION THAT COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE TROF SLOWS ALONG THE COAST. WILL ONLY KEEP POPS IN THE 30
PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW...AS FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
STRONG. SUNDAY WILL BE DRIER AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
STILL COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
GENERALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. 35
AVIATION...
MONITORING THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
LOUISIANA...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BEGIN DISSIPATING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. AS A RESULT...KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z. AFTER
06Z...AN ELEVATED INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THIS INVERSION
WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK RANGING AROUND 1000 FEET TO
DEVELOP. THIS IFR AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND
14-15Z TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
THE INVERSION BEGINS TO MIX OUT. 32
MARINE...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO DOMINATE THE MARINE ZONES. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET. OVERALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE AREA. 32
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 84 69 85 / 40 60 40 40
BTR 73 85 71 88 / 40 50 40 30
ASD 75 86 73 86 / 30 50 50 40
MSY 76 86 74 86 / 20 50 50 40
GPT 77 86 74 86 / 20 40 50 50
PQL 74 86 74 85 / 20 30 50 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
504 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION AS SOME VISIBILITIES
REMAIN NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE IN SPOTS. NO OTHER CHANGES.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF
SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO ENTER EASTERN OHIO AND INTO WRN PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST. STILL CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL BOUNDARY WORKS NORTH WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG LINGER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY
INCREASING MID DECK AS FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUDS LOOK TO PUT A BIT
OF A LID ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PRODUCING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S
WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY NIGHTS WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS KEEPING DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST FOR FRIDAY PUSHING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AS MODELS
PUSH FRONT THROUGH REGION FIRST HALF OF DAY AND BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MAY BE OVER RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY SURFACE HIGH
THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND THEN BEGIN TO WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MODELS
POINTING AT AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME DUE
TO THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE PASSING THROUGH.
LATEST NAM/RAP RUNS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS MANY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTS. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
OUTCOME...WHILE THE RAP IS FOCUSING MAINLY OVER PORTS SOUTH AND WEST
OF PIT. FOR FORECAST...WILL GO WITH LIFR VIS FORECAST FOR HLG...MGW
AND LBE AND WILL NEED TO INCLUDE DUJ IN AS IT HAS ALREADY TANKED.
FOR THE REMAINING PORTS WILL HAVE IFR VIS DEVELOPING.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THEN AN AREA OF VFR MID-DECK WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL PORTS.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
305 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF
SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO ENTER EASTERN OHIO AND INTO WRN PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST. STILL CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL BOUNDARY WORKS NORTH WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG LINGER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY
INCREASING MID DECK AS FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUDS LOOK TO PUT A BIT
OF A LID ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PRODUCING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S
WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY NIGHTS WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS KEEPING DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST FOR FRIDAY PUSHING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AS MODELS
PUSH FRONT THROUGH REGION FIRST HALF OF DAY AND BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MAY BE OVER RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY SURFACE HIGH
THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND THEN BEGIN TO WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MODELS
POINTING AT AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME DUE
TO THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE PASSING THROUGH.
LATEST NAM/RAP RUNS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS MANY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTS. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
OUTCOME...WHILE THE RAP IS FOCUSING MAINLY OVER PORTS SOUTH AND WEST
OF PIT. FOR FORECAST...WILL GO WITH LIFR VIS FORECAST FOR HLG...MGW
AND LBE AND WILL NEED TO INCLUDE DUJ IN AS IT HAS ALREADY TANKED.
FOR THE REMAINING PORTS WILL HAVE IFR VIS DEVELOPING.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THEN AN AREA OF VFR MID-DECK WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL PORTS.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
146 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF
SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO ENTER EASTERN OHIO AND INTO WRN PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST. STILL CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL BOUNDARY WORKS NORTH WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG LINGER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY
INCREASING MID DECK AS FRONT APPROACHES. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PRODUCING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S
WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS KEEPING DAYTIME
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST FOR FRIDAY PUSHING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AS TIMING
STILL SUSPECT BUT MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING. DRY SURFACE HIGH THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN
FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND THEN WARM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MODELS
POINTING AT AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME DUE
TO THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE PASSING THROUGH.
LATEST NAM/RAP RUNS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS MANY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTS. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
OUTCOME...WHILE THE RAP IS FOCUSING MAINLY OVER PORTS SOUTH AND WEST
OF PIT. FOR FORECAST...WILL GO WITH LIFR VIS FORECAST FOR HLG...MGW
AND LBE AND WILL NEED TO INCLUDE DUJ IN AS IT HAS ALREADY TANKED.
FOR THE REMAINING PORTS WILL HAVE IFR VIS DEVELOPING.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THEN AN AREA OF VFR MID-DECK WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL PORTS.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
108 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LO AMPLITUDE UPR
TROF OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS TROF IS MOVING E
NEAR THE CNDN BORDER JUST N OF MN. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DPVA/
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND AREA OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET
MAX JUST NW OF LK SUP THAT IS SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV...ONLY A NARROW
BAND OF SCT SHOWERS HAS IMPACTED AREAS FM NW WI INTO THE WRN CWA
UNDER AXIS OF ENHANCED CLD COVER EXTENDING THRU THE UPR LKS INTO
ONTARIO. THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO MORE WDSPRD PCPN APPEARS TO BE VERY
DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.34
INCH /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...COMPARED TO 0.89 INCH AT MPX /110
PCT OF NORMAL/. WITH A LGT SE SYNOPTIC FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES
CENTERED JUST E OF LK SUP...THE LLVL DRY AIR FEED AWAY FM GRB IS
LIMITING THE SHOWER COVERAGE AND SPREAD TO THE E EVEN THOUGH THE
MID/HI CLD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE UNDER THE IMPRESSIVE H4-2 DVGC
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE POPS THRU LATE TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV/DYNAMICS. FOCUS FOR TNGT AND TUE SHIFT
BACK TO MAINLY TEMPS AS SHRTWV RDG BLDS BACK OVER THE UPR LKS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA/UPR DVGC ARE PROGGED
TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR LKS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG BEFORE MOVING
INTO SE ONTARIO SOON AFT 00Z. SINCE LATEST RUC FCSTS SHOW CORE OF
LLVL DRY AIR PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL UPR MI...WL RESTRICT
ACCOMPANING POPS TO JUST THE WRN CWA THRU LATE AFTN AS ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DRIER AIR. EVEN OVER THE W...
THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/UPR CNVGC AFT 21Z SHOULD
DIMINISH THE SHOWERS AND CAUSE THEM TO END COMPLETEY BY 00Z. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD SHOULD FOLLOW THE SHRTWV TO
THE E AS WELL...GIVING WAY TO MOCLR SKIES W-E. WITH A PERSISTENCE OF
LLVL DRY AIR UNDER THE MID/HI LVL DRYING AND LGT WINDS UNDER
LINGERING SFC HI PRES RDG...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR
MIN TEMPS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG LATE OVER THE FAR W WHERE THERE
WERE SOME SHOWERS/HIER SFC DWPTS THIS AFTN FARTHER FM THE CORE OF
THE LLVL DRY AIR.
TUE...HI PRES UNDER SHRTWV RDG WL DOMINATE AND BRING A MOSUNNY DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES ON LLVL MSTR...WITH THE GFS ON THE
DRIER END OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM AND THE NAM ON THE WETTER END. GIVEN
THE OBSVD DRYNESS OF THE 12Z GRB RAOB AND THE LGT SYNOPTIC SE FLOW
THAT WL DOMINATE THRU TMRW AND MAINTAIN THIS DRY AIR...PREFER THE
GFS FCST. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH UP TO 12-13C...AND DEEP MIXING
TO H75 ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS ARPCHG 80 AWAY FM LK
MODERATION. THIS DEEP MIXING WOULD DROP SFC DWPTS INTO THE UPR
30S...LOWERING MIN RH TOWARD 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...SFC WINDS WL BE
LIGHT UNDER HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN LK SUP...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WL BE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE LGT SE SYNOPTIC FLOW WL FAVOR LK
MODERATION OFF LK MI INTO THE SCENTRAL...BUT LK BREEZES WL DVLP OFF
LK SUP ALSO AND BRING MODERATION TO AREAS MAINLY FM THE KEWEENAW AND
E.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
UPPER MI WILL BE PINNED BETWEEN THE 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
AND ANOTHER LOW ACROSS MO. OUR AREA WILL INITIALLY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE S LOW...WITH CLOUDS STREAMING N INTO S CENTRAL
UPPER MI. THE OPENING WAVE WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH E UPPER MI FROM
12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE LOW 80S. 850MB TEMPS
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 12-13C. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE SE...AND
AFTERNOON CU.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODEL SPECTRUM FOR TEMPS GIVES ANYWHERE FROM
52-75F AS REALISTIC VALUES. WITH WINDS OFF LAKE MI...HAVE BROUGHT
DOWN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT AM HESITANT ON DROPPING BELOW THE
MID 60S. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS EXPECTED...IT SHOULDN/T BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON FAR E. AS WITH TEMPS...THE TRACK OF THE BROAD SFC LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. IT SHOULD BE SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND E MN AT
06Z THURSDAY. THEN BY 18Z THURSDAY THE LOW MAY BE OVER FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR /ECMWF/...OR CENTRAL ONTARIO /NAM/...OR E ONTARIO S OF
JAMES BAY /GFS/. EVEN WITH ALL THIS THE QPF ISN/T TOO DIFFERENT.
WENT WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS...EXCLUDING THE 09/00Z CANADIAN WHICH
WAS MUCH SLOWER. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AT
00Z SATURDAY...THE GFS STILL HAD THE SFC LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SFC HIGH AND 500MB RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT E ON SATURDAY...MAKING
WAY FOR THE LOW STRETCHED ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEAR
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 500MB LOW SKIMMING THE S CANADIAN BORDER
OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO PUSH NE INTO MANITOBA ON
SUNDAY /QUICKER ON THE ECMWF/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WITH HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WILL DOMINATE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE
MARINE LAYER THRU THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS
NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST REACHING ILLINOIS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SMALL BAND OF SCT SHRA OVER CRAWFORD CO PA INTO EXTREME NE OH
REFUSES TO GIVE UP SO EXTENDED SMALL POP FOR THAT AREA ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO.
TONIGHT THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LIFT NORTH A BIT AND
LOOSE INFLUENCE ON THE AREA. THIS WILL OPEN THE AREA UP TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LOW. BASED ON RUC AND LIMITED HRRR DATA ALONG WITH
18Z GFS...THINK THE EARLIEST ANY RAIN WOULD REACH THE SW PART OF THE
CWA SHOULD BE 11Z OR LATER. THUS ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE NIGHT HOURS
DOWN SO POP ONLY GET UP TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY 11Z
DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED ALL BUT THE FAR EAST TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PART CLOUDY THIS EVENING. DECREASE OF THE CLOUDS
LOOKS TO BE ENDING WITH NEXT PUSH OF HIGHER CLOUDS IN INDIANA AND SW
OH PUSHING TOWARD THE CWA.
AS FOR TEMPS...COOL STARTING POINT THIS EVENING AND DECREASED CLOUDS
HAVE LEAD TO TRENDING TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER DEG OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EAST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TUESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI JUST EAST OF THE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM. A
WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
OPENS. LOOKING AT THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND WINDS THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO/THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WILL START TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS BASICALLY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM HOLMES COUNTY TO MFD TO FDY. EXPANDED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING THE
FAR SOUTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BROUGHT POPS TO CATEGORICAL TUESDAY NIGHT DECREASING TO
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A DIURNAL DECREASE BEFORE INCREASING
BACK UP TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT.
TEMPS SEASONAL TO A FEW ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AT THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NE ACROSS THE AREA...SETTING UP WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO
START WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON MONDAY ALLOWING
A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO SET UP.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. EXPECTING THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE THEIR
FIRST AND THEN ENVELOPE THE REST OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IFR TO POSSIBLE LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WEST HALF TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER ON TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT
NORTH FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0815 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...ALLOWING A CONVECTIVE LINE TO MOVE FARTHER EAST ACROSS SW
NC...AND THE WESTERN SC UPSTATE.
AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND TOWARD
SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WILL
AMPLIFY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE
AROUND THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. THE
CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN TN AND GA IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS VIGOR TOWARD DAYBREAK AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN NC WHERE BETTER RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT...CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR QUITE GOOD TODAY
ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LARGE CAPE AND SOME SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MID SUMMER NORMAL UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
CONVECTION MAY WELL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS STABILIZATION TAKES
SOME TIME TO OCCUR...UNLESS THE AREA IS SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER BY
CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST
BELOW MID SUMMER NORMALS. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOME INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION WED THRU FRI...KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES. A REMNANT TROUGH FROM THE DEEP LOW HOWEVER WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME. SWLY LLVL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWFA...AND BY LATE
WED PROG SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY SATURATED THROUGH MOST OF THE
COLUMN. HOWEVER...PROFILES WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH EARLY IN THE DAY
TO ALLOW DEEP MIXING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
UPSTATE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND 20-30 KT
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...THIS MAY PERMIT SOME CELLS TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.
WED NIGHT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH PROFILES LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ON THU
BUOYANCY DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT BUT WE WILL HAVE THE
ADDED FORCING FROM THE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. WHILE PWAT VALUES
WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE WED...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR
ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT THU AND SOMEWHAT INTO THU NIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW TO
MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CLOSEST THING
TO A LLJ BEING OFF TO OUR NORTH...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD OR MEMORABLE. FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK FRI MRNG
BUT WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY ANYWAY...SO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED ACRS THE PIEDMONT BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS. ON THU...CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE CWFA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT AND
BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGER TROUGH OVER THE NERN US BY FRI
NIGHT...WHICH ITSELF LIFTS AWAY LEAVING THE ERN SEABOARD UNDER BROAD
AND WEAK RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/EC DIFFER ON HOW TO HANDLE A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
DURING THIS TIME...THE GFS LETTING THE WAVE FILL OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE EC LETS IT DRIFT EWD AND CUTS IT OFF
OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP ON ITS SRN FRINGE
WHICH MAY LIFT NWD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...THE CWFA WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN A
MOIST PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH
ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MARITIME MOISTURE FLUX. THE
GFS TRANSITIONS TO A TYPICAL SW FLOW REGIME AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THE EC FEATURES THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FOG IS ALREADY FORMING IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS LOW VFR...AT LEAST
MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL. AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THE RUC WAS PREFERRED FOR ITS IFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
DAYBREAK. WITH A WARM AND HUMID UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...
APPROACHING 10 KNOTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHEN GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR FOG AT NC SITES AND KAND BY
DAYBREAK...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT SC SITES...AND MVFR CIGS SW OF KAVL.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK. CONVECTION NOW IN CENTRAL TN
AND AL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT REACHES THE NC MOUNTAINS IN A
FEW HOURS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN SEE NO REASON NOT TO CARRY
THIS AT ALL SITES. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...APPROACHING 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO
FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH
MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM. BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z
KCLT HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND TOWARD
SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WILL
AMPLIFY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE
AROUND THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. THE
CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN TN AND GA IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS VIGOR TOWARD DAYBREAK AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN NC WHERE BETTER RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT...CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR QUITE GOOD TODAY
ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LARGE CAPE AND SOME SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MID SUMMER NORMAL UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
CONVECTION MAY WELL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS STABILIZATION TAKES
SOME TIME TO OCCUR...UNLESS THE AREA IS SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER BY
CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST
BELOW MID SUMMER NORMALS. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOME INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION WED THRU FRI...KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES. A REMNANT TROUGH FROM THE DEEP LOW HOWEVER WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME. SWLY LLVL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWFA...AND BY LATE
WED PROG SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY SATURATED THROUGH MOST OF THE
COLUMN. HOWEVER...PROFILES WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH EARLY IN THE DAY
TO ALLOW DEEP MIXING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
UPSTATE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND 20-30 KT
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...THIS MAY PERMIT SOME CELLS TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.
WED NIGHT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH PROFILES LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ON THU
BUOYANCY DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT BUT WE WILL HAVE THE
ADDED FORCING FROM THE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. WHILE PWAT VALUES
WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE WED...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR
ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT THU AND SOMEWHAT INTO THU NIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW TO
MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CLOSEST THING
TO A LLJ BEING OFF TO OUR NORTH...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD OR MEMORABLE. FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK FRI MRNG
BUT WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY ANYWAY...SO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED ACRS THE PIEDMONT BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS. ON THU...CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE CWFA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT AND
BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGER TROUGH OVER THE NERN US BY FRI
NIGHT...WHICH ITSELF LIFTS AWAY LEAVING THE ERN SEABOARD UNDER BROAD
AND WEAK RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/EC DIFFER ON HOW TO HANDLE A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
DURING THIS TIME...THE GFS LETTING THE WAVE FILL OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE EC LETS IT DRIFT EWD AND CUTS IT OFF
OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP ON ITS SRN FRINGE
WHICH MAY LIFT NWD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...THE CWFA WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN A
MOIST PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH
ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MARITIME MOISTURE FLUX. THE
GFS TRANSITIONS TO A TYPICAL SW FLOW REGIME AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THE EC FEATURES THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FOG IS ALREADY FORMING IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS LOW VFR...AT LEAST
MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL. AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THE RUC WAS PREFERRED FOR ITS IFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
DAYBREAK. WITH A WARM AND HUMID UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...
APPROACHING 10 KNOTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHEN GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR FOG AT NC SITES AND KAND BY
DAYBREAK...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT SC SITES...AND MVFR CIGS SW OF KAVL.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK. CONVECTION NOW IN CENTRAL TN
AND AL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT REACHES THE NC MOUNTAINS IN A
FEW HOURS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN SEE NO REASON NOT TO CARRY
THIS AT ALL SITES. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...APPROACHING 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO
FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH
MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM. BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z
KCLT HIGH 82% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
128 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER AND POPS WERE UPDATED FROM INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS UPSTREAM. WINDS WERE
UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM AND ADJMAV. AREAS OF FOG WERE
UPDATED FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
AS OF 10 PM...WILL CANCEL THE REST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
APPROACH OF AN MCS SEEN TO THE WEST.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIG
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS THE CWFA. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS PROVIDING ENHANCED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. FORECAST WILL
HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS REGIONWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION
ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE APPS. POPS TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES INTO THE LATE
EVENING WITH POPS LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MID MORNING WITH COVERAGE BEING MOST
DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER REGARDING VISIBILITY RESTRICITONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY
MORNING.
MEANWHILE...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE PUSHES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THE OLD QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INITIALIZE RATHER WEAK BEFORE RAMPING UP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85. THEREFORE EXPECTING THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON
TUESDAY TO BE ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE AXIS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS
STRETCHING TOWARDS OR EVEN EXCEEDING 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS ON
TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON SKY COVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY ON WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MO. MOVES NE AND
FILLS. A REMANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THU. AT THE SURFACE...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY LOSE SWAY OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THU. AS THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS GULF INFLOW IMPROVES WITH TIME.
IN REGARD TO CONVECTION...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS EARLY ON. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVER DONE IN
HANGING ONTO SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MUCH OF TUE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER FORCING. HENCE...WILL
STEER THE TUE NIGHT FORECAST MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE DRYER NAM.
ON WED...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL AGAIN SPIKE DURING MAX AFTERNOON
HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CASE TO BE MADE FOR
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WED NIGHT AS UPPER
DIVERGANCE IMPROVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE
UPSLOPE...ALONG WITH IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST WED NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT
REACH THE AREA.
THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK
AS SBCAPE BECOMES MORE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/CLOUDS. PWATS GRADUALLY INCREASE AND GENERALLY PEAK AROUND
1.75 INCHES. HENCE AS WE GET INTO WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT INTO THU...A
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPS. USED SUPERBLEND/
WEIGHTED MODEL DATA FOR TEMPS/POPS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FROM
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND LOWER...ESPECIALLY ON
THU AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROMOTES MORE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...AT 00Z FRIDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE OUR
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH RESULTED AFTER
THE CLOSED 500MB LOW OPENED OVER THE MIDWEST DURING MID WEEK. CAPES
OF 1000 TO 1500 OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THURSDAY ALONG
WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THESE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH ON FRIDAY AIDING IN MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE GFS HAS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM ACROSS TENNESSEE ON
FRIDAY WITH THE RESULTING COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW BECOMING UPSLOPE
FROM THE SE INTO OUR NC...SC AND GA MTNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. IF
THIS LIGHT 5 TO 10KT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PANS OUT...THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE MUCH OF SAT AND SUN WHICH OF COURSE WOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS SHOW BEST INSTABILITY IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD BEING ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 IN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS FORECAST STARTING NEXT WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN
AROUND DAY 7 OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. THIS CONTINUES TO OCCUR EACH
DAY PROGRESSIVELY PRODUCING THIS SYSTEM AROUND DAY 7 GOING BACK AT
LEAST TO A WEEK AGO. WE CAN ONLY TAKE IT SERIOUSLY IF OTHER MODELS
START TO AGREE.
TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FOG IS ALREADY FORMING IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS LOW VFR...AT LEAST
MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL. AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THE RUC WAS PREFERRED FOR ITS IFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
DAYBREAK. WITH A WARM AND HUMID UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...
APPROACHING 10 KNOTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHEN GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR FOG AT NC SITES AND KAND BY
DAYBREAK...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT SC SITES...AND MVFR CIGS SW OF KAVL.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK. CONVECTION NOW IN CENTRAL TN
AND AL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT REACHES THE NC MOUNTAINS IN A
FEW HOURS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN SEE NO REASON NOT TO CARRY
THIS AT ALL SITES. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...APPROACHING 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO
FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH
MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM. BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT HIGH 87% HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 94% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 88% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO/VISIN
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1130 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NEXT ROUND IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
LINE EXPANDING AND BLOSSOMING OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURE GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
BELLES
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE FOR EARLY JUNE TRACKING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS GIVES US CAUSE FOR ATTENTION. FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL OVERSPREADING OUR FORECAST
AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ENHANCED
SHEAR CAUSES A CONCERN FOR A TORNADIC POTENTIAL INTO THIS
EVENING.
ON TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LINGERING UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE SHOULD
FINALLY END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.
ON THURSDAY WE MAY CATCH A BREAK FROM THE RAIN...HOWEVER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HEATING AS
ONE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES JUST EAST OF OUR AREA...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BUILD ALOFT INTO OUR REGION...NEVERTHELESS WITH HIGH SOIL MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
BELLES
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NEXT ROUND OF SHRAS/TSRAS IS ALREADY STREAMING TOWARD THE
MIDSOUTH. AT KMEM...KMKL AND KTUP CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AS MORE SHRAS/TSRAS OVERSPREAD
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON AREAL
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR SO
CONTINUED WITH A VCTS THROUGH 11/03Z.
FOR KJBR...EXPECT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSRAS AT KJBR
WILL BE WITH THE UPPER LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR OCNL IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON TUESDAY.
WIND WILL BE SOUTH 7-9 KTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND 12 KTS TUESDAY
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.AVIATION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AND THE TERMINALS. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY AT KAUS...HAVE TAKEN MENTION OF
RAIN AND THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AS CHANCES ARE DECREASING. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS NUMERICAL MODELS...IN ADDITION TO THE WRF
SIMULATED SATELLITE HINT AT A DECK OF CLOUDS COMING IN BETWEEN THE
CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND THE WEAK FRONT TO THE WEST. BECAUSE OF
THIS HAVE KEPT THE HIGH END MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS (8-12Z) AT THE
I-35 TAF SITES. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 11-13Z CAUSING AN INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. KDRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL HELP STABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. ELSEWHERE...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER.
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE... SEE NO
REASON TO ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES.
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS...WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE LINEAR MCS THAT MOVED
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
TRIED TO FORM OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY/CAPE AND THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
SHORT-LIVED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TONIGHT AS FRONT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD FORCING. HOWEVER...HAVE
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS AND WHERE SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MAY TRACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND HAVE RESTRICTED SLIGHT
CHANCES TO THE FAR EAST IN THE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS. NO RAIN AND A
WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS
BUILDS IT INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE OTHER MODELS
KEEP IT OVER MEXICO. THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND ALONG
A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND EVEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS...GEM AND NAVGEM
SHOW A DRY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SILENT 10S AND KEEP
MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD THE MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD THE ECMWF...THEN POPS WOULD LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH READINGS OF 100 TO 105.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 91 68 95 75 / 30 - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 91 66 94 74 / 30 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 67 95 73 / 30 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 88 66 92 71 / 30 - - - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 98 74 103 77 / 20 - - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 88 67 93 74 / 30 - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 69 99 74 / 30 - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 67 94 73 / 30 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 91 69 93 75 / 40 20 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 93 70 96 75 / 30 - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 70 97 75 / 30 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL HELP STABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. ELSEWHERE...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER.
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE... SEE NO
REASON TO ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES.
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS...WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
AVIATION...
HAVE MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. THE
AIRMASS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WAS STABILIZED ENOUGH BY THE MCS
EARLIER IN THE DAY SO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THAT SAID ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
VISIBLE ON RADAR. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP IN FROM 01-04Z JUST FOR
SHOWERS RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. A COUPLE
HOURS OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE WEAK
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10-13Z TOMORROW
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. HAVE LEFT THE TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS SERRANIAS DEL BURRO THUNDERSTORMS MAY WORK THEIR
WAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER LATER THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE LINEAR MCS THAT MOVED
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
TRIED TO FORM OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY/CAPE AND THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
SHORT-LIVED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TONIGHT AS FRONT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD FORCING. HOWEVER...HAVE
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS AND WHERE SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MAY TRACK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND HAVE RESTRICTED SLIGHT
CHANCES TO THE FAR EAST IN THE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS. NO RAIN AND A
WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS
BUILDS IT INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE OTHER MODELS
KEEP IT OVER MEXICO. THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND ALONG
A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND EVEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS...GEM AND NAVGEM
SHOW A DRY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SILENT 10S AND KEEP
MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD THE MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD THE ECMWF...THEN POPS WOULD LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH READINGS OF 100 TO 105.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 91 68 95 75 / 30 - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 91 66 94 74 / 30 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 67 95 73 / 30 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 88 66 92 71 / 30 - - - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 98 74 103 77 / 20 - - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 88 67 93 74 / 30 - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 69 99 74 / 30 - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 67 94 73 / 30 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 91 69 93 75 / 40 20 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 93 70 96 75 / 30 - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 70 97 75 / 30 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
250 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA...WILL HAVE A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE RAIN BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
AS OF 900 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS ATMOSPHERE
INSTABILITY WANES. LEANED POPS TONIGHT TOWARDS THE HIRESW-ARW AND
HRRR WHICH CAPTURED THIS EVENINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE
BEST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHAPED TOWARDS THE LAMP GUIDANCE FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S. FOR TUESDAY...A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 550 PM EDT MONDAY...
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT TO MATCH UP
WITH WSR-88D KFCX TRENDS. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW SPREAD CONVECTION
EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR
LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS EVENING.
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CUT OFF SO FAR BY DRY AIR ALOFT
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE OROGRAPHIC AIDED REGIONS. HOWEVER
SEEING SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ACROSS THE SOUTH-
EAST AHEAD OF A FAINT WAVE...REMNANT OF THE EARLIER TN VALLEY
MCS...THAT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS NW NC THIS EVENING. MOST
GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTH AND SW SO LEAVING IN A LOW POP MAINLY
SOUTHERN HALF THIS EVENING... AND ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH. OTRW FORCING REMAINS LIMITED
TONIGHT AS COULD EASILY SEE THINGS GO BASICALLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE BUT GIVEN LACK OF
SHRA SO FAR APPEARS COVERAGE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LOW
SPOTS OUT EAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV LOWS IN MOUNTAINS
PER LOWER DEWPOINTS WHILE TRENDING TOWARD THE NAM OUT EAST OF THE
FRONT.
THIS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY AS SE HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE RIDING NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST LIFT AGAIN WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE TO
THE WEST WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS LACKING OVERALL ACROSS
THE REGION WITH WEST WINDS ALOFT CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE DOES DEEPEN WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WHILE ANY
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH DOWN THE FRONT GETS DAMPENED
UPON SPILLING EAST INTO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. APPEARS BEST
FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE THE
FRONT/DEEPER MOISTURE INTERSECT AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY POSSIBLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL BACKING TO A
MORE SW COMPONENT TAKES SHAPE. ELSW THINKING MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE DESPITE HIGH THETA-E AND INSTABILITY PER STRONG HEATING
ESPCLY OUT EAST. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF AFTERNOON LIKELYS FAR WEST AND BLUE RIDGE SW OF
ROANOKE. HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO 90 SE PIEDMONT PER EARLY DOWNSLOPE...AND 80S ELSW OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND FAR NW WHERE CLOUDS MAY AGAIN HOLD
VALUES IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP HEAD NORTHEAST
TO NEAR AND THEN ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...RESULTING IN A
SLOW MOVING...ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL SLOW MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THEN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR
REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THIS PERIOD...CULMINATING WITH PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CHANCE OF
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THE ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY OF
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRANSLATE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD...THERE WILL BE TREND TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
READINGS EACH DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
ONLY SOME NARROW WINDOWS FOR LIMITED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST REGION.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...OR EVEN SLOWER MOVING DETACHED UPPER LOW
OUTSIDE THE MAIN JET STREAM...WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A 12 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING STILL OCCURRING...WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FEATURE WILL MAKE LIMITED MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIMITED CONVECTION...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WILL BE EITHER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON EAST OF THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING. ITS INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND REBOUND ONLY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME BEING...THE LULL
LASTING INTO LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ENTERS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY LOW AND MID CLOUDS TO START...WITH CIRRUS
BLOWOFF FROM THE APPROACHING MCS OVER TENNESSEE SOON TO ENTER THE
AREA. CLOUD COVER IS PATCHY IN NATURE...AND WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE
IN VISIBILITIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE IN MOST LOCATIONS IS AT OR NEAR
SATURATION. AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER SCATTERS/THINS EVEN FOR A
SHORT WHILE MAY FOG DOWN QUICKLY. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS KEEPING
CEILINGS VFR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH KBLF AND OTHER AREAS ALONG
WEST FACING SLOPES WILL LOCALLY BECOME IFR AS THE FLOW BANKS
MOISTURE AGAINST THE NEARBY TERRAIN.
CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE AS HEATING
KICKS IN...HOWEVER EXPECT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EJECTING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO APPROACH BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. AS SUCH...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT THAT HAVE ENTERED TSRA INTO ALL TAFS...ALTHOUGH TIMING
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
AIRPORTS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
DAY. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...LIMITING VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN 1SM AS THEY PASS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THAT THE DECREASE IN
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE GRADUAL HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...OPENING INTO A TROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS
THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE...
WITH THE THREAT FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS ALSO INCREASING. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING THUS RESULTING IN A MULTIPLE DAY THREAT
FOR SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WED-FRI
WITH A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THUS...PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. WITH THE FRONT
JUST SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL AROUND...WILL
SEE MORE OF AN ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THREAT FOR CONVECTION
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
111 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA...WILL HAVE A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE RAIN BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
AS OF 900 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS ATMOSPHERE
INSTABILITY WANES. LEANED POPS TONIGHT TOWARDS THE HIRESW-ARW AND
HRRR WHICH CAPTURED THIS EVENINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE
BEST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHAPED TOWARDS THE LAMP GUIDANCE FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S. FOR TUESDAY...A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 550 PM EDT MONDAY...
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT TO MATCH UP
WITH WSR-88D KFCX TRENDS. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW SPREAD CONVECTION
EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR
LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS EVENING.
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CUT OFF SO FAR BY DRY AIR ALOFT
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE OROGRAPHIC AIDED REGIONS. HOWEVER
SEEING SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ACROSS THE SOUTH-
EAST AHEAD OF A FAINT WAVE...REMNANT OF THE EARLIER TN VALLEY
MCS...THAT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS NW NC THIS EVENING. MOST
GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTH AND SW SO LEAVING IN A LOW POP MAINLY
SOUTHERN HALF THIS EVENING... AND ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH. OTRW FORCING REMAINS LIMITED
TONIGHT AS COULD EASILY SEE THINGS GO BASICALLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE BUT GIVEN LACK OF
SHRA SO FAR APPEARS COVERAGE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LOW
SPOTS OUT EAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV LOWS IN MOUNTAINS
PER LOWER DEWPOINTS WHILE TRENDING TOWARD THE NAM OUT EAST OF THE
FRONT.
THIS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY AS SE HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE RIDING NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST LIFT AGAIN WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE TO
THE WEST WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS LACKING OVERALL ACROSS
THE REGION WITH WEST WINDS ALOFT CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE DOES DEEPEN WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WHILE ANY
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH DOWN THE FRONT GETS DAMPENED
UPON SPILLING EAST INTO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. APPEARS BEST
FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE THE
FRONT/DEEPER MOISTURE INTERSECT AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY POSSIBLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL BACKING TO A
MORE SW COMPONENT TAKES SHAPE. ELSW THINKING MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE DESPITE HIGH THETA-E AND INSTABILITY PER STRONG HEATING
ESPCLY OUT EAST. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF AFTERNOON LIKELYS FAR WEST AND BLUE RIDGE SW OF
ROANOKE. HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO 90 SE PIEDMONT PER EARLY DOWNSLOPE...AND 80S ELSW OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND FAR NW WHERE CLOUDS MAY AGAIN HOLD
VALUES IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP HEAD NORTHEAST
TO NEAR AND THEN ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...RESULTING IN A
SLOW MOVING...ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL SLOW MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THEN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR
REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THIS PERIOD...CULMINATING WITH PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CHANCE OF
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THE ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY OF
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRANSLATE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD...THERE WILL BE TREND TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
READINGS EACH DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
ONLY SOME NARROW WINDOWS FOR LIMITED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST REGION.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...OR EVEN SLOWER MOVING DETACHED UPPER LOW
OUTSIDE THE MAIN JET STREAM...WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A 12 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING STILL OCCURRING...WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FEATURE WILL MAKE LIMITED MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIMITED CONVECTION...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WILL BE EITHER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON EAST OF THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING. ITS INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND REBOUND ONLY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT MONDAY...
FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO EJECT OUT OF SLOW MOVING CENTRAL
U.S. UPPER LOW IMPACTING THE CWA NOW...WITH SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ROA/LYH AND
VCTS FOR DAN FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF IN ANTICIPATING OF
THIS ACTIVITY SKIRTING THROUGH THE AREA. -SHRA NOTED ALSO IN FAR
SW VA...WHICH COULD IMPACT BLF/BCB LATER...BUT LIKELY WILL
DISSIPATE. MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH -SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AS THIS FIRST WAVE PASSES BY. CLOUD COVER AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS PROBLEMATIC. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER...BUT SOME OF EACH IS POSSIBLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LWB...GENERALLY PLANNING ON MVFR VSBYS AND MOST CIGS AOA LOW END
VFR. FOR TUE...A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NE TOWARD THE CWA
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SIMILAR TO TODAY. A WARM ADVECTION WING
IS ALSO APPARENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL INTRODUCE VCTS FOR 18Z AND
BEYOND WITH MORE SPECIFIC TIMING OF TSRA TO FOLLOW IN LATER TAFS.
WINDS WSW 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SSW-SW 7-10KTS WITH
LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE ROA/DAN/BLF.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FOR MID WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEY WED/THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGH GETS CLOSER THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE WITH
THE THREAT FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS ALSO INCREASING. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING THUS RESULTING IN A MULTIPLE DAY THREAT
FOR SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WED-FRI
WITH A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THUS...PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. WITH THE FRONT
JUST SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL AROUND...WILL
SEE MORE OF AN ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THREAT FOR CONVECTION
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WATER VAPOR AND RAP MODEL 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS AMBLING
EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL.
MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF CIRRUS TIED
TO THE LOW COVERING MOST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED LOW KICKING NORTHEAST TO NEAR
KSTL BY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS COOLS THE AIR ALOFT FOR STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR BLUE
RIVER SHOWS CAPE OF 100-200J/KG WITH A CAP IN THE 700-600MB
LAYER...SO THINKING THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL...AND THUS REMOVED
MENTION FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO TOP OF IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARD
NORTHEAST IL BY 12Z. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN WI AS THAT CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND DRIFTS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO
REGION LATER ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT DEPARTING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DURING THE
MORNING...BUT NAM SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE AROUND 1100J/KG WITH 20-25KT
OF BULK SHEAR. THIS IS BASED ON SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
60S. THINKING THIS IS A BIT HIGH WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MORE IN THE
50S. THEREFORE...REALIZED CAPE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 500-
1000J/KG RANGE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON CONVECTION FOR A WIND THREAT.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND COLD FRONT. ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE 3-8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS
THE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 7-11C RANGE. MODEL CONSENSUS
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS/SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. ECMWF GENERATES 1000-1500J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WITH 20-25KT
OF BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SEVERE
THREAT.
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT THEN LAYS OUT AND BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/CENTRAL IA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL TROUGHS LOOK TO RIPPLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
HIGH LEVEL VFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KANSAS MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...THE 10.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF BOTH TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS BEEN SUGGESTING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS NOW THAT
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST A SCATTERED DECK AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET OR SO AND HAVE OPTED
TO INCLUDE THIS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEN
EXPECTING ALL THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
LATEST STAGE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA AS OF 07Z WAS 11.9
FEET. THE RIVER APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR
11.9 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
929 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPS AND MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
OUR REGION...AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...WITH CLOSED
UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED NORTH
INTO NC. MODELS INDICATE SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR OUR
REGION TODAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
VALLEY REGION. A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
PLENTIFUL SUN AND DIURNAL HEATING. MAX TEMPS TODAY COULD REACH
THE UPPER 90S. WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY
REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. HRRR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION BEFORE
LATE AFTERNOON AND CAE WRF MODEL NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION OVER
OUR AREA BEFORE LATE EVENING. AIR MASS DOES BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN POSSIBLE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TRIGGERS FOR STORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE S AND
SW. MODEL POPS AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON THE INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY SHIFT UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST FRIDAY BUT
INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ECMWF CLOSES
OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER OUR REGION SAT/SUN...MOVING IT SLOWLY TO OUR
EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS WEAKENS THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST THEN SHIFTS IT TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION AND DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL
NOT INCLUDE STORMS IN FORECAST...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A FEW OF
THEM AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS 5-10 MPH WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
Latest surface map shows an elongated low pressure area from near
Columbia MO southwest into northwest Arkansas, with a warm front
arcing northeast roughly near I-70. Initial band of deformation
rain has mostly shifted north out of the CWA, but some patchy
showers/drizzle continue to the south. Latest HRRR had the general
trends down, and show an additional surge of showers northward
into the southeast CWA toward midday as the front lifts north. The
orientation of the front will become more tilted along the I-57
corridor as the afternoon progresses, with additional showers
spreading across the remainder of the CWA during the afternoon.
CAPE`s not especially impressive, but expected to rise into the
500-800 J/kg range, supportive of some thunder in most areas.
Currently think the far northwest CWA has a minimal threat, so
have removed the thunder mention in that area, and adjusted the
timing elsewhere to concentrate it more in the afternoon.
Have also made some adjustments to temperatures, primarily across
the northwest half of the CWA. Currently only in the lower 60s
northwest of Peoria, and the main surge of warmer air will be
further southeast today. Have lowered high temperatures a few
degrees across the northwest, closer to the LAMP guidance. Made
some adjustments to hourly trends in the southeast, but kept highs
close to where they were.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
Rain has moved into the area and is effecting all TAF sites this
morning. However, there is back edge to the pcpn that has moved
through SPI and will at DEC shortly. So have started these two off
with VCSH and have TEMPO group for lower category. Back edge of
pcpn will move through all other sites later this morning and have
done the same giving 3-4hr TEMPO groups at PIA/BMI/CMI. As the
lower pressure area system gets closer to the area and begins to move
through, more showers will develop in the warmer sector and could
possibly see a thunderstorm. So for later this afternoon and into
this evening, will have showers with VCTS at all sites. Once that
wanes this evening, pcpn will just be rain. Cigs and vis will
remain MVFR or lower through the period with rain and the frontal
boundary being close to or in the area. So will have MVFR and/or
IFR conditions most of the TAF period. Pcpn could end around
05-06z so have indicated this in all TAFs. However, cigs and vis
will remain low and will continue cigs below 1KFT overnight. Winds
will be easterly to start at 10-15kts but then become southeast to
south at SPI/DEC/CMI as the low gets closer and the front makes a
little bit of a north move. PIA and BMI will be north of the
front, so winds will easterly and then become northeasterly as the
low tracks into the area.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
07z/2am radar imagery shows initial band of light rain associated
with approaching upper low lifting slowly northward across central
Illinois, with the northern edge of the rain extending along a
Rantoul to Macomb line. Air mass sampled by both the KILX and KDVN
evening upper air soundings was quite dry, so precipitation has
been slow to spread northward. As air mass slowly moistens, rain
will eventually reach the far northern KILX CWA around Galesburg
and Lacon by daybreak. Additional showers will develop across the
area throughout the day, as warm/moist air flows northward from
the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the system. Forecast soundings
indicate only weak elevated instability later this morning into
the afternoon, suggesting mainly showers with perhaps a few
isolated thunderstorms. Better instability will be found further
southeast across Kentucky and Tennessee where a slight risk for
severe weather is in place. Due to extensive cloud cover and
occasional showers, high temperatures today will be held in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Upper low will track from northeast Oklahoma early this morning
into north-central Illinois by Wednesday morning. While a mid-level
dry slot may tend to work into southeast Illinois tonight thus
reducing rain chances there, deformation zone precip will likely
be concentrated along/west of I-55. Will continue to carry likely
PoPs through tonight before gradually dropping to chance PoPs on
Wednesday. All model solutions show the low E/NE of Illinois by
00z Thu, so will bring the rain chances to an end Wednesday night.
Based on the latest projections, additional rainfall with this
system between now and Wednesday afternoon will generally be
between half an inch and one inch, with a corridor of heavier
rainfall in excess of 1 inch along/near the I-55 corridor.
Once the upper low exits, the next system will quickly come into
the picture on Thursday as a northern stream wave tracks through
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Weak cold front will push
into central Illinois Thursday afternoon/evening, potentially
triggering a few showers/storms. Think this system will have
limited moisture to work with, so will only mention low chance
PoPs as the boundary passes. Otherwise, Thursday will be a partly
sunny and warm day with highs in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
High pressure will build into the Midwest behind the departing
front for Friday, providing cooler and less humid conditions. High
temperatures will remain in the 70s, while overnight lows dip into
the middle to upper 50s. As the high slides off to the east,
warmer and more humid air mass will return early next week. Models
are showing an upper ridge building across the eastern CONUS with
an approaching frontal boundary losing eastward momentum as it
becomes parallel with the upper flow. Consensus brings scattered
showers/storms into west-central Illinois on Sunday, then further
east across the entire area Sunday night into Monday. Do not think
this will be a wash-out by any means, as upper heights will be
rising and boundary will be dissipating. Main weather story early
next week will be the very warm/humid conditions, as highs rise
into the middle to upper 80s and dew points climb well into the
60s.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WORK WEEK AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE END OF
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
MAIN FOCUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE ON
DEVELOPING SHWRS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL. SO FAR AFTER
PERUSING LATEST MODEL TRENDS...OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LACKING DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS
WHICH WE/LL DIVE INTO HERE. MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT DAYTIME INSTABILITY GENERATION
AS LATEST RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFFER A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE
AT BEST. MODEL LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL BE WITH
US FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AS A WEAK LOW /MID-LEVEL WIND
FIELD WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE ATMOSPHERE/S MIXING POTENTIAL.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WILL SKIRT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE WEAKEST. AND IF THAT WERE NOT ENOUGH...ANY
JET DYNAMICS FROM A STRAIGHT-LINE JET OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AGAIN
WILL ONLY INFLUENCE THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA. ALL
TOLD...OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REALLY JUST DOESN/T LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CUT BACK A LITTLE ON THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...WHILE MAINTAINING AN ISOLATED MENTION FROM THE FINGER
LAKES AND POINTS SOUTH. IF ANYTHING DOES GET GOING...WEAK LOW/MID-
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL CREATE VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WHICH
COMBINED WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES...MAY CREATE AN ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN CONCERN.
645 AM EDT UPDATE... PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING. FOG
SHOULD LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS EXPECTED. ADJUSTED
TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO MATCH REALITY OF TEMPS. DECIDED TO
RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
420 AM EDT UPDATE...
AN UPPR LVL CUTOFF LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
AT THE SFC... HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE FROM THE
NORTH AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH VISBYS RANGING FROM
A QUARTER OF A MILE TO AROUND 6SM. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OUT A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE ALSO PRESENT THIS MORNING COVERING THE
WHOLE CWA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT OUT AROUND 16Z. WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE EARLY... HOWEVER WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE PRESENT EXPECT THE SKY TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO OVERCAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY SHORTLY THERE OF.
THESE TWO FEATURES MAY ACT AS A LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH
MAY HELP THE INITIATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY... BUT THE NAM IS HINTING AT A DECENT INVERSION AROUND 700MB
TODAY... IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION OVER THE CWA. THUS... HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE PA AND FAR SOUTHERN NY.
SINCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 70S. WINDS
FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH AND BE NORTHERLY AS THE
SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
420 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFTS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WV`S ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NY AND PA. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WED. DURING
THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO HAVE TO BEST
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. PWAT VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RISE AROUND 1.8 INCHES WED AFTERNOON... AND WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL.... ALONG WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM BEING SLOW... ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE AN ISSUE. WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.
THURSDAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL SWING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ON THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WARM IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL INTO THE UPPR 70S/LOW 80S WED
AND THURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS THEREFORE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS/POPS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
215 PM UPDATE...
AN UNSETTLED START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT MUCH LIKE THE PAST
FEW WEEKENDS, BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL BE UPON US AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND! FRIDAY WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT AT RAIN AS AN AXIS OF
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GENERAL H5 TROF IN THE
EASTERN US. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP FRIDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
EVENING.
THIS WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR, LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS.
H85 TEMPS IN THE 8C TO 10C RANGE WILL SUPPORT COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN
THE 70S SATURDAY. WITH ANOTHER 2C RISE BY SUNDAY, MANY LOCATIONS
WILL WARM INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WAS OBSERVED. AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP,
LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN
IMPROVE TO LOW VFR. AT KITH/KBGM/KELM, CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MIN
WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LIFT
TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAFS DUE TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT
PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z WIDESPREAD MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MIXING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS.
THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...CMG/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1030 AM...12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT SPC MESOANAL INDICATES THAT
ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY CAPPED. WITH GENERAL NVA ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER RIDGE EXPECT THAT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SUPPRESSED. THE LATEST HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE SBCAPES ARE THE GREATEST.
HENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO WIDELY SCATTERED RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF SHOW MUCH
LESS CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM DOES SHOW
SOME CONVECTION...BUT OVERALL BUMPED POPS DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE WIDELY SCT/SCT RANGE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW GENERALLY AFTER 00Z SO
WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISE POPS INCREASING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM DISSIPATES THE
CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING EASTERN SECTIONS. SO
CURRENT POP GRID LOOKS ON TARGET FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
STRONG INSOLATION UNDER UPPER RIDGE IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
WITH MID TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
AT 830 AM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. THE LITTLE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS HAS
DISSIPATED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP WILL
EXIST FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY OVER PIEDMONT. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED UPDRAFTS BREAKING THE CAP...BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO
THE ISOLATED RANGE PIEDMONT AREAS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC
SCALE NVA UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. IN THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. CAM`S INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY JUST THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
1100 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...REDUCING COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN SC. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO
INCORPORATE THE 06Z NAM. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...REDUCING COVERAGE IN THE EAST. AREAS OF FOG WERE
ADJUSTED PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND TOWARD
SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WILL
AMPLIFY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE
AROUND THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. THE
CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN TN AND GA IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS VIGOR TOWARD DAYBREAK AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN NC WHERE BETTER RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT...CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR QUITE GOOD TODAY
ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LARGE CAPE AND SOME SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MID SUMMER NORMAL UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
CONVECTION MAY WELL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS STABILIZATION TAKES
SOME TIME TO OCCUR...UNLESS THE AREA IS SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER BY
CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST
BELOW MID SUMMER NORMALS. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOME INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION WED THRU FRI...KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES. A REMNANT TROUGH FROM THE DEEP LOW HOWEVER WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME. SWLY LLVL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWFA...AND BY LATE
WED PROG SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY SATURATED THROUGH MOST OF THE
COLUMN. HOWEVER...PROFILES WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH EARLY IN THE DAY
TO ALLOW DEEP MIXING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
UPSTATE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND 20-30 KT
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...THIS MAY PERMIT SOME CELLS TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.
WED NIGHT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH PROFILES LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ON THU
BUOYANCY DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT BUT WE WILL HAVE THE
ADDED FORCING FROM THE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. WHILE PWAT VALUES
WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE WED...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR
ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT THU AND SOMEWHAT INTO THU NIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW TO
MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CLOSEST THING
TO A LLJ BEING OFF TO OUR NORTH...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD OR MEMORABLE. FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK FRI MRNG
BUT WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY ANYWAY...SO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED ACRS THE PIEDMONT BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS. ON THU...CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE CWFA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT AND
BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGER TROUGH OVER THE NERN US BY FRI
NIGHT...WHICH ITSELF LIFTS AWAY LEAVING THE ERN SEABOARD UNDER BROAD
AND WEAK RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/EC DIFFER ON HOW TO HANDLE A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
DURING THIS TIME...THE GFS LETTING THE WAVE FILL OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE EC LETS IT DRIFT EWD AND CUTS IT OFF
OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP ON ITS SRN FRINGE
WHICH MAY LIFT NWD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...THE CWFA WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN A
MOIST PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH
ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MARITIME MOISTURE FLUX. THE
GFS TRANSITIONS TO A TYPICAL SW FLOW REGIME AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THE EC FEATURES THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS MORNING...NOR HAS AN
MVFR CIG RESTRICTION. FOG COVERAGE REMAINS IN ALL DIRECTIONS ...AND
THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION HAS LOWERED TO 2 DEGREE...SO SOME
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR TEMPORARY FOG. INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER
FORCING. GUIDANCE FAVORS SCATTERED CIRRUS TODAY...BUT A LOW VFR CIG
COULD ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL... BECOMING
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD FAVOR LOW
VFR FOG AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY KHKY IS PLAGUED WITH A FOG RESTRICTION THIS
MORNING...AND DEW POINT DEPRESSION DO NOT FAVOR FOG ELSEWHERE.
SHOWERS NEAR KAVL WILL DIMINISH AS UPPER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE
NE. INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH
A LACK OF FORCING. GUIDANCE SUPPORT GENERALLY SCATTERED CIRRUS...BUT
A LOW VFR CIG COULD ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. SW WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MVFR FOG AT KHKY AND KAND...AND IFR FOG AT KAVL BY
DAWN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN EXPECTED CONVECTION...AND THE MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO
FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH
MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM. BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
848 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.UPDATE...UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NW AR THIS MORNING AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE. DEEP MOISTURE FETCH IS EVIDENT
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NE
TOWARD SW MIDDLE TN. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE CURRENT
TRAJECTORY OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SW...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE MID STATE TODAY.
WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD...SO FAR THERE ARE NO WATCH
BOXES TO OUR SOUTH. BUT...GFS ELUDES TOWARD
DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE
RAINFALL WONT ARRIVE UNTIL A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. 850 MB
SPEEDS WILL RUN AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER
LOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS STILL IN LINE ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD. 3 HOUR GUIDANCE IS ROUGHLY AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. AREAL AVERAGES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS COULD SEE CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS THAT REACH OR
SURPASS THAT LEVEL. THEREFORE...FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE LOW TO MID 70S
TEMPS AT 18Z. SINCE HIGH TEMPS ARE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT
LEVELS...THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SO TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO THE TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MCS THAT IMPACTED THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING HAS EXITED THE MID
STATE...BUT NEXT MCS MOVING NE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI WILL AFFECT AREA
AIRPORTS DURING THE DAY TODAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
BRINGS SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CKV/BNA AROUND
15-16Z...WITH HRRR INDICATING PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE LATER TOWARDS 22Z AT CSV WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
.FLASH FLOOD POTENTAL REMAINS FOR PARTS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...
.POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IN THE MID STATE...
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM LOUISIANA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING AND DURING THE DAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR
2 INCHES IN A VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
JUICED TO THE HILT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
IN THE WATCH AREA AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL BE MAXED OUT. AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND RELATIVELY COOL 500 MBAR
TEMPS ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DESPITE LIMITED HEATING TODAY DUE
TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. I EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
TO WORK UP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS STORMS BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD. LOOKS TO ME LIKE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WILL THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS HERE IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE RETARDED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN.
ON WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ND INTO GREAT LAKES REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BACK DOWN
THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SO LOOK FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLIES DOMINATE
THE PATTERN WITH A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF SHORT WAVES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ023>025-
056>058-060-061-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
610 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MCS THAT IMPACTED THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING HAS EXITED THE MID
STATE...BUT NEXT MCS MOVING NE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI WILL AFFECT AREA
AIRPORTS DURING THE DAY TODAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
BRINGS SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CKV/BNA AROUND
15-16Z...WITH HRRR INDICATING PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE LATER TOWARDS 22Z AT CSV WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
..FLASH FLOOD POTENTAL REMAINS FOR PARTS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...
..POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IN THE MID STATE...
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM LOUISIANA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING AND DURING THE DAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR
2 INCHES IN A VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
JUICED TO THE HILT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
IN THE WATCH AREA AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL BE MAXED OUT. AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND RELATIVELY COOL 500 MBAR
TEMPS ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DESPITE LIMITED HEATING TODAY DUE
TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. I EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
TO WORK UP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS STORMS BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD. LOOKS TO ME LIKE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WILL THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS HERE IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE RETARDED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN.
ON WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ND INTO GREAT LAKES REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BACK DOWN
THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SO LOOK FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLIES DOMINATE
THE PATTERN WITH A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF SHORT WAVES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ023>025-056>058-
060-061-093>095.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1017 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE STAYED SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER SO FAR
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH THROUGH LATE
MORNING. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR DO MOVE A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF
SHOWERS DO BEGIN TO CROSS THE BORDER.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE QUITE EXPANSIVE AND OPAQUE CURRENTLY...WHICH
IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR THE TEMPERATURE TO RISE VERY QUICKLY.
WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IF THIS CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...SHOWERS HAVE STAYED SOUTH OF THE WI/IL
BORDER SO FAR THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH
THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR DO MOVE A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MONROE TO SHEBOYGAN.
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE AREAS OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. COULD SEE SOME LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES IN AREAS
OF MODERATE RAIN.
THOUGH THE RAIN WILL WIND DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOWER CIGS MAY HANG ON RIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON EASTWARD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER OK WILL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD DURING THIS PERIOD
REACHING E CENTRAL IL BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR
NORTH IT WILL TRACK ALONG WITH ITS MDT RAINFALL...BUT A CONSENSUS OF
MODELS SUGGESTS RAIN IS LIKELY OVER SE WI TNT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL WI. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NW SIDE
OF THE LOW WHERE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE PRESENT...AND
SUPPORTED BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA. PWS WILL RISE UP TO 1.4 INCHES IN FAR
SE WI WITH SOUNDINGS BECOMING FAIRLY SATURATED. THUS PCPN EFFICIENCY
WILL BE HIGH WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL. CURRENTLY FORECASTING
ABOUT ONE HALF INCH SOUTH OF MKE BUT EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER MORE OR LESS OCCURS THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
BEFORE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TNT...EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SRN WI AS INITIAL WARM ADVECTION AND
PVA MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKE. WAS TEMPTED TO GO COOLER WITH TEMPS
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TRENDS BUT MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR
AT TIMES.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
RAIN WILL LIKELY HANG ON OVER SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH WED MORNING UNTIL
THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH CAN MOVE EASTWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
LOOK FOR RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SOME SUNSHINE WEST OF MADISON IN THE AFTERNOON...SO RAISED
MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S. CLOUDS AND AN EASTERLY BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S IN SOUTHEAST WI.
QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN WED NIGHT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE. WARM ADVECTION AS WINDS TURN FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
THEN SOUTH WILL BRING LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER. INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A COLD FRONT WILL TREK THROUGH WISCONSIN ON THU...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THERE ARE STILL SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE EXTENT OF ANY PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS. WITH
SOUTHERN WI IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION...THE 850MB FRONT TIED TO THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...AND LITTLE MOISTURE... THE
DYNAMICS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOME OF
THE LARGER-SCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. THEREFORE...SHOWERS WITH A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE PROBABLE ALONG THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MEAGER CAPE VALUES AND MINIMAL SHEAR.
TEMPS SHOULD HAVE TIME TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN SOUTHEAST WI. THU NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
ANOTHER FANTASTIC STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THESE SHORTWAVES
OVER SOUTHERN WI IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
WARM...AT LEAST IN THE UPPER 70S BUT MORE LIKELY THE 80S.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER OK WILL MOVE TO EAST CENTRAL IL AND EVENTUALLY
INTO MI LATE TNT AND WED. THE LOW WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER FAR SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN LIKELY OVER THE
SE WI TAF SITES TNT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BUT CIGS OF
1.0-3.0 KFT AND MVFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP TNT WITH THE RAINFALL. THE
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AM.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
641 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WATER VAPOR AND RAP MODEL 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS AMBLING
EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL.
MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF CIRRUS TIED
TO THE LOW COVERING MOST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED LOW KICKING NORTHEAST TO NEAR
KSTL BY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS COOLS THE AIR ALOFT FOR STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR BLUE
RIVER SHOWS CAPE OF 100-200J/KG WITH A CAP IN THE 700-600MB
LAYER...SO THINKING THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL...AND THUS REMOVED
MENTION FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO TOP OF IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARD
NORTHEAST IL BY 12Z. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN WI AS THAT CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND DRIFTS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO
REGION LATER ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT DEPARTING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DURING THE
MORNING...BUT NAM SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE AROUND 1100J/KG WITH 20-25KT
OF BULK SHEAR. THIS IS BASED ON SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
60S. THINKING THIS IS A BIT HIGH WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MORE IN THE
50S. THEREFORE...REALIZED CAPE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 500-
1000J/KG RANGE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON CONVECTION FOR A WIND THREAT.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND COLD FRONT. ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE 3-8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS
THE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 7-11C RANGE. MODEL CONSENSUS
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS/SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. ECMWF GENERATES 1000-1500J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WITH 20-25KT
OF BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SEVERE
THREAT.
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT THEN LAYS OUT AND BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/CENTRAL IA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL TROUGHS LOOK TO RIPPLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
AN EASTERLY FLOW OF DRY AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HELP MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
AROUND RST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ITS TOO LOW TO EVEN
INCLUDE A VCSH AT THIS TIME. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO STAY AT OR
BELOW 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
LATEST STAGE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA AS OF 07Z WAS 11.9
FEET. THE RIVER APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR
11.9 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
355 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA IS BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY. CURRENT 24 HR TEMPERATURE
TRENDS ARE RUNNING DOWN AROUND 3-9 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A
VERY DRY SYSTEM...INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW IS
SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA. WITH
THE LACK OF MOISTURE THERE COULD BE SOME LSOLATED DRY LIGHTNING
BUT NOT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
NAMDNG5 AND HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE PASSES AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY THROUGH 2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE
PROGGED TO TRACK INLAND...MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERAL TROUGHY PATTERN OVER THE REGION...CONTINUING A
COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND CLIMO BY
FRIDAY AND HOVERING NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. JUST A FEW
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
PLEASE SEE SFOAQAHNX
THE VALLEY AIR DISTRICT HAS ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR SAN
JOAQUIN...STANISLAUS...MERCED...FRESNO...KINGS...AND THE VALLEY
PORTION OF KERN COUNTIES FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO BLOWING DUST CAUSED BY WINDY CONDITIONS.
EXPOSURE TO PARTICLE POLLUTION CAN CAUSE SERIOUS HEALTH PROBLEMS...
AGGRAVATE LUNG DISEASE... CAUSE ASTHMA ATTACKS AND ACUTE
BRONCHITIS AND INCREASE RISK OF RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS. IN PEOPLE
WITH HEART DISEASE... SHORT-TERM EXPOSURE TO PARTICLE POLLUTION
HAS BEEN LINKED TO HEART ATTACKS AND ARRHYTHMIAS...ACCORDING TO
THE U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY. CHILDREN AND ELDERLY
PEOPLE ARE ALSO MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONSEQUENCES OF HIGH
PARTICULATE LEVELS.
STAY INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. AVOID PROLONGED OR STRENUOUS OUTDOOR
PHYSICAL ACTIVITIES TO REDUCE THE AFFECTS OF UNHEALTHY AIR.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 06-10 106:1986 65:1976 70:1939 46:1954
KFAT 06-11 106:1979 71:1894 72:1918 47:1894
KFAT 06-12 107:1985 66:1998 73:1985 47:1952
KBFL 06-10 107:1975 73:1976 74:1975 45:1954
KBFL 06-11 109:1979 73:1963 75:1975 42:1913
KBFL 06-12 110:1979 63:1998 75:1979 38:1907
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ089-091-092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...PJ
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1220 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.UPDATE...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAMDNG5 INDICATE THAT GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH WITH REGARDS TO BOTH LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AS
THESE TWO HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
REGION TODAY BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ALONG THE
WEST COAST BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA
FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS AS WELL AS RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON MONDAY IS SHIFTING
EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SOCAL COAST NEAR
34N/124W PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE SOCAL COAST. 00Z AND 06Z WRF RUNS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOCAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A COOLING TREND BY 4-7 DEG F
TODAY AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES LOWER ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND KERN
COUNTY DESERTS WILL STILL HAVE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER IMPACT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE FOR
OUR AREA IS THAT IT WILL PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND ALONG THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH WV IMAGERY AND RH PROGS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE....THE 06Z WRF INDICATES CAPES OF 800
TO 1200 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LI/S BETWEEN -4 AND -1 DEG C WHILE SPC HAS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA IN A GENERAL RISK AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AM CONCERNED THAT WITH THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS FEATURE BEING MAINLY HIGH BASED THAT DRY LIGHTING WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE COOLING TREND CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
CONTINUE TO FALL. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS IT WILL BE TODAY AS THERE
WILL NOT BE AS MUCH LIFT. BY THURSDAY A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW WHICH WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MID JUNE AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR CROSS OUR AREA.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY IN KEEPING
OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 1129 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY JUNE 10 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 06-10 106:1986 65:1976 70:1939 46:1954
KFAT 06-11 106:1979 71:1894 72:1918 47:1894
KFAT 06-12 107:1985 66:1998 73:1985 47:1952
KBFL 06-10 107:1975 73:1976 74:1975 45:1954
KBFL 06-11 109:1979 73:1963 75:1975 42:1913
KBFL 06-12 110:1979 63:1998 75:1979 38:1907
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
CAZ089-091-092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY/JEB
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...PJ
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
409 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF LOWS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS
OCCURRING. INSTABILITY WAS STRONG WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -8.
THE LAPS SOUNDING SHOWED SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH KI/S ABOUT 26. THE
RAP SHOWED SOME H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS JUST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND
INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WIND IN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH AREA PLUS WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10500 FEET FAVOR DAMAGING HAIL.
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EXTREME WESTERN GEORGIA AT 400 PM MAY REACH THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD 900 PM. THE 15Z HRRR SHOWED THIS CONVECTION
WEAKENING DURING THE 800 PM TO 200 AM TIME FRAME AND GENERALLY STAYING
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THIS TROUGH DOES TRY TO CLOSE OFF THURSDAY AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CAROLINAS REMAIN IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AIR MASS TO
REMAIN MOIST. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEARING THE CWA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST. THE CURRENT
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE WEEKEND LOW...BUT IN
GENERAL STILL EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAY BEGIN TO SEE THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN FLATTEN BRIEFLY ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION AND DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL
NOT INCLUDE STORMS IN FORECAST...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A FEW OF
THEM AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED
CUMULUS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY. SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROUND 18Z THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE
REGIONS RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SERIES OF LOWS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS. A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE SO FAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. MAX TEMPS TODAY COULD REACH THE UPPER
90S. WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY REACHING
SEVERE LIMITS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION BEFORE
LATE AFTERNOON AND 06Z CAE WRF MODEL NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION
OVER OUR AREA BEFORE LATE EVENING. AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN POSSIBLE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS
FOR STORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP COULD
BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN POPS
AROUND 30 PERCENT MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS TROUGH DOES TRY TO CLOSE OFF THURSDAY AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CAROLINAS REMAIN IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AIRMASS TO REMAIN
MOIST. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEARING THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE...TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST. THE CURRENT
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE WEEKEND LOW...BUT IN
GENERAL STILL EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAY BEGIN TO SEE THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN FLATTEN BRIEFLY ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION AND DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL
NOT INCLUDE STORMS IN FORECAST...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A FEW OF
THEM AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED
CUMULUS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY. SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROUND 18Z THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
955 AM CDT
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR WORDING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
NORTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PASSING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING WHICH IS AIDING IN THE LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHERN
AREAS HAVE LIKELY SEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN THIS MORNING WHILE
AREAS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-80 AND POINTS NORTH HAVE SEEN LIGHT
RAIN FALL BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO MEASURE. ANOTHER PUSH OF LIGHT
RAIN IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERSTATE 80 NOW AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DO SO THOUGH A DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD. MORE ORGANIZED FORCING TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE IN
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY LINGERING NORTH
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH. OTHERWISE CHANCES
INCREASE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS
GIVEN THE LIGHT RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
248 AM CDT
TODAY...
FOCUS TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE...AS GUIDANCE
HAS MAINTAINED SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. EARLY THIS MORNING THE
DRY AIR OVER NORTHEAST IL REMAINS IN PLACE...AS DEW POINTS HAVE HELD
IN THE LOW/MID 40S. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS/DEW PTS HAVE RISEN TO ARND 60. THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ONTARIO...WITH THE SFC LOW ANALYZED OVER THE OZARKS. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO TIGHTEN...AND CONTINUE TO FILTER THE DRIER
AIR INTO NORTHEAST IL THRU THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING CLEARLY SHOWS THIS...AS THE CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO THIN.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIP...THERE
IS AGREEMENT THAT THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN CWFA BY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE IN THE LLVL MOISTURE...WITH
PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 1.5-1.75" MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IN/OH AND SLOWLY SEEP WEST INTO NORTHEAST
IL. LOCAL ARW8KM SUGGESTS THE BEST TIMING FOR COVERAGE/PRECIP
ARRIVING NORTH OF I-80 WILL LIKELY BE AFT 20Z...AND THE MOST RECENT
CYCLES WOULD SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE GIVEN SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID THE LLVL MOISTURE
AND DRY AIR OVER LOWER MI WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW AS WELL...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN
400J/KG AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION THE PRECIP
CHALLENGES...TEMPS WILL EQUALLY BE TOUGH TODAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER SHIELDING THE DIRECT LIGHT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO WARM AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO GENERALLY ARND 70 TO
LOW 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN
NORTHEAST IL AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
500MB CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO TRANSITION BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE EARLY
WED MORNING. REMNANTS FROM THE SFC RIDGE CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN POSE CHALLENGES TO THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST CWFA...AND COULD SEE THIS NEEDING TO BE
FURTHER ADJUSTED/FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTHEAST. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. HI-RES LOCAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS
EVEN LESS COVERAGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD...WITH THE OPER NAM TRENDING
IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. HAVE BROUGHT QPF TOTALS DOWN
FURTHER...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA. IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT BY MIDDAY WED THE PRECIP COULD BE ENDING IN THE
WESTERN CWFA...AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PIVOTS EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING SFC RIDGING DEVELOPING ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH WED
NGT...AND HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF THE DRY AIR FOR WED NGT TO
REFLECT THIS.
TEMPS WED WILL ONCE AGAIN HINGE UPON CLOUD COVER. SFC WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE NORTHERLY...BACKING AND DIMINISHING TO NEARLY CALM LATE WED
NGT. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING...HAVE TRIMMED
TEMPS BACK TO ARND 70/LOW 70S. BUT CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH...AND COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WED.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THUR...WITH
FLOW QUICKLY TURNING SOUTH AND ADVECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO
THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING PASSING WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THUR...EXPECT THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THUR NGT TO BE RATHER QUIET. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE LOW COVERAGE AND NOT STRONG AT THIS
TIME GIVEN SUCH A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THEN DRY AIR RETURNS THUR
NGT AND WILL PERSIST THRU SAT NGT AS BROAD SFC RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE REGION. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...IT DOES APPEAR SOME
CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ENSEMBLES
ARE LEANING TOWARDS BROAD TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
AND ALLOWING FOR SOME AMPLIFICATIONS TO A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FOR THE
GREAT LAKES SUN/MON. FLOW SHUD TURN SOUTHERLY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 80S. IN
ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH MVFR LIKELY AND
IFR A POSSIBILITY.
* PERIODS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BRINGING SCATTERED
HIGH BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS KEEPING THE
LOWEST LEVELS DRY AND CONDITIONS VFR THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAUSING
MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. WHAT IS
HITTING THE GROUND IS GENERALLY IS IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES THAT ARE NOT DOING MUCH TO IMPACT VSBY...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST
REFLECTIVITY AREAS. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT TOP DOWN
SATURATION TO OCCUR WITH CIGS EVENTUALLY REACHING MVFR THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN MORE
MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS AREA
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS WITH A SECOND AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN FOCUSED MORE OVER RFD WHERE THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE AND QUICKER TO LEAVE.
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL REST OF TODAY THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NEAR DAYBREAK....AS THE SURFACE LOW NEARS THE
AREA...THERE GROWS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION
GIVEN MODELS DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW TRACK. HOPEFULLY UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH KEEP A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A FARTHER SOUTH LOW TRACK.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS AND DROPPING TO MVFR...LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THROUGH VERY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA EXITING DURING EVENING.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS RESULTING
IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE...WITH
THIS DIRECTION REMAINING TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE MORE TOWARDS THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE. A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY KEEP THESE SPEEDS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
Latest surface map shows an elongated low pressure area from near
Columbia MO southwest into northwest Arkansas, with a warm front
arcing northeast roughly near I-70. Initial band of deformation
rain has mostly shifted north out of the CWA, but some patchy
showers/drizzle continue to the south. Latest HRRR had the general
trends down, and show an additional surge of showers northward
into the southeast CWA toward midday as the front lifts north. The
orientation of the front will become more tilted along the I-57
corridor as the afternoon progresses, with additional showers
spreading across the remainder of the CWA during the afternoon.
CAPE`s not especially impressive, but expected to rise into the
500-800 J/kg range, supportive of some thunder in most areas.
Currently think the far northwest CWA has a minimal threat, so
have removed the thunder mention in that area, and adjusted the
timing elsewhere to concentrate it more in the afternoon.
Have also made some adjustments to temperatures, primarily across
the northwest half of the CWA. Currently only in the lower 60s
northwest of Peoria, and the main surge of warmer air will be
further southeast today. Have lowered high temperatures a few
degrees across the northwest, closer to the LAMP guidance. Made
some adjustments to hourly trends in the southeast, but kept highs
close to where they were.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
IFR conditions continuing at the TAF sites at midday. While the
visibilities will be fairly variable and rise quite a bit at
times, the ceilings are mainly expected to only slowly rise into
MVFR territory. Best chance of getting higher than that this
happening would be at KSPI and perhaps KPIA, where the low clouds
have broken up in the vicinity of a surface low which is moving
northeast. Earlier widespread showers have lifted north, but
additional rain is rapidly moving up from south central Illinois
and will be reaching KCMI/KDEC shortly. A few thunderstorms will
be possible this afternoon as a warm front moves northward in
eastern Illinois, with the threat quickly ending by sunset. Think
there will be a more widespread MVFR condition by early evening
before dropping back down again tonight as an upper low drifts
into central Illinois. Winds are a bit problematic later in the
period with the models varying in the track of the surface low,
which impacts the direction, but speeds should generally be around
5 knots or less after 06Z.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
07z/2am radar imagery shows initial band of light rain associated
with approaching upper low lifting slowly northward across central
Illinois, with the northern edge of the rain extending along a
Rantoul to Macomb line. Air mass sampled by both the KILX and KDVN
evening upper air soundings was quite dry, so precipitation has
been slow to spread northward. As air mass slowly moistens, rain
will eventually reach the far northern KILX CWA around Galesburg
and Lacon by daybreak. Additional showers will develop across the
area throughout the day, as warm/moist air flows northward from
the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the system. Forecast soundings
indicate only weak elevated instability later this morning into
the afternoon, suggesting mainly showers with perhaps a few
isolated thunderstorms. Better instability will be found further
southeast across Kentucky and Tennessee where a slight risk for
severe weather is in place. Due to extensive cloud cover and
occasional showers, high temperatures today will be held in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Upper low will track from northeast Oklahoma early this morning
into north-central Illinois by Wednesday morning. While a mid-level
dry slot may tend to work into southeast Illinois tonight thus
reducing rain chances there, deformation zone precip will likely
be concentrated along/west of I-55. Will continue to carry likely
PoPs through tonight before gradually dropping to chance PoPs on
Wednesday. All model solutions show the low E/NE of Illinois by
00z Thu, so will bring the rain chances to an end Wednesday night.
Based on the latest projections, additional rainfall with this
system between now and Wednesday afternoon will generally be
between half an inch and one inch, with a corridor of heavier
rainfall in excess of 1 inch along/near the I-55 corridor.
Once the upper low exits, the next system will quickly come into
the picture on Thursday as a northern stream wave tracks through
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Weak cold front will push
into central Illinois Thursday afternoon/evening, potentially
triggering a few showers/storms. Think this system will have
limited moisture to work with, so will only mention low chance
PoPs as the boundary passes. Otherwise, Thursday will be a partly
sunny and warm day with highs in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
High pressure will build into the Midwest behind the departing
front for Friday, providing cooler and less humid conditions. High
temperatures will remain in the 70s, while overnight lows dip into
the middle to upper 50s. As the high slides off to the east,
warmer and more humid air mass will return early next week. Models
are showing an upper ridge building across the eastern CONUS with
an approaching frontal boundary losing eastward momentum as it
becomes parallel with the upper flow. Consensus brings scattered
showers/storms into west-central Illinois on Sunday, then further
east across the entire area Sunday night into Monday. Do not think
this will be a wash-out by any means, as upper heights will be
rising and boundary will be dissipating. Main weather story early
next week will be the very warm/humid conditions, as highs rise
into the middle to upper 80s and dew points climb well into the
60s.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
955 AM CDT
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR WORDING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
NORTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PASSING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING WHICH IS AIDING IN THE LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHERN
AREAS HAVE LIKELY SEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN THIS MORNING WHILE
AREAS FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS I-80 AND POINTS NORTH HAVE SEEN LIGHT
RAIN FALL BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO MEASURE. ANOTHER PUSH OF LIGHT
RAIN IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERSTATE 80 NOW AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DO SO THOUGH A DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD. MORE ORGANIZED FORCING TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE IN
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY LINGERING NORTH
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH. OTHERWISE CHANCES
INCREASE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS
GIVEN THE LIGHT RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
248 AM CDT
TODAY...
FOCUS TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE...AS GUIDANCE
HAS MAINTAINED SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. EARLY THIS MORNING THE
DRY AIR OVER NORTHEAST IL REMAINS IN PLACE...AS DEW POINTS HAVE HELD
IN THE LOW/MID 40S. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS/DEW PTS HAVE RISEN TO ARND 60. THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ONTARIO...WITH THE SFC LOW ANALYZED OVER THE OZARKS. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO TIGHTEN...AND CONTINUE TO FILTER THE DRIER
AIR INTO NORTHEAST IL THRU THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING CLEARLY SHOWS THIS...AS THE CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO THIN.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIP...THERE
IS AGREEMENT THAT THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN CWFA BY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE IN THE LLVL MOISTURE...WITH
PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 1.5-1.75" MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IN/OH AND SLOWLY SEEP WEST INTO NORTHEAST
IL. LOCAL ARW8KM SUGGESTS THE BEST TIMING FOR COVERAGE/PRECIP
ARRIVING NORTH OF I-80 WILL LIKELY BE AFT 20Z...AND THE MOST RECENT
CYCLES WOULD SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE GIVEN SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID THE LLVL MOISTURE
AND DRY AIR OVER LOWER MI WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW AS WELL...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN
400J/KG AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION THE PRECIP
CHALLENGES...TEMPS WILL EQUALLY BE TOUGH TODAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER SHIELDING THE DIRECT LIGHT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO WARM AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO GENERALLY ARND 70 TO
LOW 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN
NORTHEAST IL AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
500MB CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO TRANSITION BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE EARLY
WED MORNING. REMNANTS FROM THE SFC RIDGE CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN POSE CHALLENGES TO THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST CWFA...AND COULD SEE THIS NEEDING TO BE
FURTHER ADJUSTED/FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTHEAST. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. HI-RES LOCAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS
EVEN LESS COVERAGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD...WITH THE OPER NAM TRENDING
IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. HAVE BROUGHT QPF TOTALS DOWN
FURTHER...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA. IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT BY MIDDAY WED THE PRECIP COULD BE ENDING IN THE
WESTERN CWFA...AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH PIVOTS EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING SFC RIDGING DEVELOPING ON THE HEELS OF THE TROUGH WED
NGT...AND HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF THE DRY AIR FOR WED NGT TO
REFLECT THIS.
TEMPS WED WILL ONCE AGAIN HINGE UPON CLOUD COVER. SFC WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE NORTHERLY...BACKING AND DIMINISHING TO NEARLY CALM LATE WED
NGT. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING...HAVE TRIMMED
TEMPS BACK TO ARND 70/LOW 70S. BUT CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH...AND COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WED.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THUR...WITH
FLOW QUICKLY TURNING SOUTH AND ADVECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO
THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING PASSING WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THUR...EXPECT THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THUR NGT TO BE RATHER QUIET. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE LOW COVERAGE AND NOT STRONG AT THIS
TIME GIVEN SUCH A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THEN DRY AIR RETURNS THUR
NGT AND WILL PERSIST THRU SAT NGT AS BROAD SFC RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE REGION. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...IT DOES APPEAR SOME
CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ENSEMBLES
ARE LEANING TOWARDS BROAD TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
AND ALLOWING FOR SOME AMPLIFICATIONS TO A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FOR THE
GREAT LAKES SUN/MON. FLOW SHUD TURN SOUTHERLY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 80S. IN
ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* VARIABLE NORTH TO EAST WINDS...SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
* ISOL/WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS MORNING WITH MORE PREVAILING -SHRA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
* VFR CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IFR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ/DEUBELBEISS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WHILE A LARGE SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING BUT WITH THE FORCING LOST AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...DO EXPECT
THIS PRECIP TO BE LIGHT WITH AN OVERALL DRY TREND TOWARDS MID DAY.
VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY AS MVFR/IFR WILL
REMAIN TIED CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM
DRAWS NEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT MORE
PREVAILING SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS AND PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING
REFLECTS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND WITH
THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION IN THE
TAFS. HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING OVERHEAD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR CEILINGS REMAINING.
NOT CONFIDENT WITH EXACT TIMING NOR DURATION OF THIS IFR POTENTIAL
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL WHICH COULD BE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TIME FRAME ON WEDNESDAY. A STEADY UPWARD TREND IN SPEEDS
AND THEN GUSTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH 10KT OR HIGHER
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA AND TIMING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH
TIMING...LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR.
RODRIGUEZ/DEUBELBEISS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA EXITING DURING EVENING.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS RESULTING
IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE...WITH
THIS DIRECTION REMAINING TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE MORE TOWARDS THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE. A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY KEEP THESE SPEEDS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
Latest surface map shows an elongated low pressure area from near
Columbia MO southwest into northwest Arkansas, with a warm front
arcing northeast roughly near I-70. Initial band of deformation
rain has mostly shifted north out of the CWA, but some patchy
showers/drizzle continue to the south. Latest HRRR had the general
trends down, and show an additional surge of showers northward
into the southeast CWA toward midday as the front lifts north. The
orientation of the front will become more tilted along the I-57
corridor as the afternoon progresses, with additional showers
spreading across the remainder of the CWA during the afternoon.
CAPE`s not especially impressive, but expected to rise into the
500-800 J/kg range, supportive of some thunder in most areas.
Currently think the far northwest CWA has a minimal threat, so
have removed the thunder mention in that area, and adjusted the
timing elsewhere to concentrate it more in the afternoon.
Have also made some adjustments to temperatures, primarily across
the northwest half of the CWA. Currently only in the lower 60s
northwest of Peoria, and the main surge of warmer air will be
further southeast today. Have lowered high temperatures a few
degrees across the northwest, closer to the LAMP guidance. Made
some adjustments to hourly trends in the southeast, but kept highs
close to where they were.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
Rain has moved into the area and is effecting all TAF sites this
morning. However, there is back edge to the pcpn that has moved
through SPI and will at DEC shortly. So have started these two off
with VCSH and have TEMPO group for lower category. Back edge of
pcpn will move through all other sites later this morning and have
done the same giving 3-4hr TEMPO groups at PIA/BMI/CMI. As the
lower pressure area system gets closer to the area and begins to move
through, more showers will develop in the warmer sector and could
possibly see a thunderstorm. So for later this afternoon and into
this evening, will have showers with VCTS at all sites. Once that
wanes this evening, pcpn will just be rain. Cigs and vis will
remain MVFR or lower through the period with rain and the frontal
boundary being close to or in the area. So will have MVFR and/or
IFR conditions most of the TAF period. Pcpn could end around
05-06z so have indicated this in all TAFs. However, cigs and vis
will remain low and will continue cigs below 1KFT overnight. Winds
will be easterly to start at 10-15kts but then become southeast to
south at SPI/DEC/CMI as the low gets closer and the front makes a
little bit of a north move. PIA and BMI will be north of the
front, so winds will easterly and then become northeasterly as the
low tracks into the area.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
07z/2am radar imagery shows initial band of light rain associated
with approaching upper low lifting slowly northward across central
Illinois, with the northern edge of the rain extending along a
Rantoul to Macomb line. Air mass sampled by both the KILX and KDVN
evening upper air soundings was quite dry, so precipitation has
been slow to spread northward. As air mass slowly moistens, rain
will eventually reach the far northern KILX CWA around Galesburg
and Lacon by daybreak. Additional showers will develop across the
area throughout the day, as warm/moist air flows northward from
the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the system. Forecast soundings
indicate only weak elevated instability later this morning into
the afternoon, suggesting mainly showers with perhaps a few
isolated thunderstorms. Better instability will be found further
southeast across Kentucky and Tennessee where a slight risk for
severe weather is in place. Due to extensive cloud cover and
occasional showers, high temperatures today will be held in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Upper low will track from northeast Oklahoma early this morning
into north-central Illinois by Wednesday morning. While a mid-level
dry slot may tend to work into southeast Illinois tonight thus
reducing rain chances there, deformation zone precip will likely
be concentrated along/west of I-55. Will continue to carry likely
PoPs through tonight before gradually dropping to chance PoPs on
Wednesday. All model solutions show the low E/NE of Illinois by
00z Thu, so will bring the rain chances to an end Wednesday night.
Based on the latest projections, additional rainfall with this
system between now and Wednesday afternoon will generally be
between half an inch and one inch, with a corridor of heavier
rainfall in excess of 1 inch along/near the I-55 corridor.
Once the upper low exits, the next system will quickly come into
the picture on Thursday as a northern stream wave tracks through
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Weak cold front will push
into central Illinois Thursday afternoon/evening, potentially
triggering a few showers/storms. Think this system will have
limited moisture to work with, so will only mention low chance
PoPs as the boundary passes. Otherwise, Thursday will be a partly
sunny and warm day with highs in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
High pressure will build into the Midwest behind the departing
front for Friday, providing cooler and less humid conditions. High
temperatures will remain in the 70s, while overnight lows dip into
the middle to upper 50s. As the high slides off to the east,
warmer and more humid air mass will return early next week. Models
are showing an upper ridge building across the eastern CONUS with
an approaching frontal boundary losing eastward momentum as it
becomes parallel with the upper flow. Consensus brings scattered
showers/storms into west-central Illinois on Sunday, then further
east across the entire area Sunday night into Monday. Do not think
this will be a wash-out by any means, as upper heights will be
rising and boundary will be dissipating. Main weather story early
next week will be the very warm/humid conditions, as highs rise
into the middle to upper 80s and dew points climb well into the
60s.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
457 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NRN LAKES INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND LOWS LOCATED OVER SRN MO AND W CNTRL MANITOBA. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH OR TOWARD THE NRN
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR BRINGING LIGHT NE TO E WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH UPPER
MI WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP INLAND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH
FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND.
WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE HANDLING OF THE MO LOW
THAT LIFTS TOWARD SRN LOWER MI. THE ECMWF REMAINS FARTHER NW WTH THE
MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS/GEM
AND GRAZES THE ERN CWA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT WITH THE
SREF...THE FCST INCLUDES SOME LOWER END(20-30)POPS FOR MAINLY LUCE
COUNTY. THE NAM AND A FEW HIGHER RES MODELS ALSO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTIVE PCPN INTO THE FAR WEST. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH...PCPN WAS NOT MENTIONED. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR 13C...EXPECT MAX INLAND TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF TO AROUND
80...WHILE LAKE BREEZES KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE SET UP ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI AT 00Z
THURSDAY...STEMMING FROM THE WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH SET UP ACROSS
LOWER MI AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON AND THE 500MB SHORTWAVE LINGERING
ACROSS LAKE MI AND E UPPER MI. ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM A TRACE TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY EXIT NE THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM DIVES IN FROM
THE MAIN 500MB LOW SET UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY. WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL IN THE FCST FOR THURSDAY. WONDERING IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO
GET AS MUCH PRECIP AS BEING FCST OFF HPC /12Z/ WITH 0.25-0.33IN
12-18Z THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AND DIMINISHED THE AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY...STAYING WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE W HALF...AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THIS TYPE OF SFC LOW TRACK.
THE MAIN 500MB LOW STILL SPINNING TO OUR N WILL EXTEND A TROUGH DOWN
THROUGH W ONTARIO AND N MN AND WI BY 18Z THURSDAY...WHILE CLOSING
OFF. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES...WITH THE 12Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF BEING THE FARTHEST S OF THE BUNCH. THE MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY
BE THE SAME. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SWING ACROSS
THE CWA W-E THROUGH THE DAY...EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW SHIFTING
FROM NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY TO JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 18Z WHILE DEEPENING. THE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS POTENT
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
WITH STORM MOTION OF 20-25KTS...AND PW VALUES ONLY BRIEFLY TOPPING
OUT OVER 1IN...EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO BE MINIMAL. DRY AIR
WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL NEED TO
BE EDITED IN OUR FCST AS WE GET SOME BETTER TIMING FROM THE MODELS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES OVER THE LADDER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING
TO 1-3C FOR FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT WELL BELOW THE 70S THAT
ARE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST SPOT /S CENTRAL/ MAY
GET ABOVE 70F. WNW WINDS OF 10-15KT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
OTHERWISE...KEPT A MODEL BLEND GOING FOR MUCH OF DAYS 4-7. THIS
INCLUDED KEEPING THE E HALF OF UPPER MI DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS OVER
THE W HALF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WET WEATHER CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WITH HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE MARINE LAYER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF MODERATE WRLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NRN LAKES INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND LOWS LOCATED OVER SRN MO AND W CNTRL MANITOBA. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH OR TOWARD THE NRN
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR BRINGING LIGHT NE TO E WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH UPPER
MI WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP INLAND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH
FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND.
WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE HANDLING OF THE MO LOW
THAT LIFTS TOWARD SRN LOWER MI. THE ECMWF REMAINS FARTHER NW WTH THE
MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS/GEM
AND GRAZES THE ERN CWA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT WITH THE
SREF...THE FCST INCLUDES SOME LOWER END(20-30)POPS FOR MAINLY LUCE
COUNTY. THE NAM AND A FEW HIGHER RES MODELS ALSO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTIVE PCPN INTO THE FAR WEST. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH...PCPN WAS NOT MENTIONED. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR 13C...EXPECT MAX INLAND TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF TO AROUND
80...WHILE LAKE BREEZES KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ZONAL TO START THEN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED BY LATE
THIS WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER GULF OF ALASKA DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HEIGHTS SEE BRIEF BOUNCE UP ON SATURDAY
IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH GRAZES UPPER LAKES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE PATTERN APPEAR TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION ON WEDNESDAY IS ON UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TROUGH SPLITS INTO TWO SECTIONS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO HAVE THE
MORE PRONOUNCED H85 LOW AND SWATH OF MOISTURE TIED INTO IT. MAIN
QUESTION HAS BEEN...AND CONTINUES TO BE...HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE SFC
AND H85 LOWS WILL TRACK. ECMWF IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE SFC LOW
LIFTING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN PROBABLY OWING TO STRONGER SHORTWAVE.
ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN FOR FAR EASTERN CWA MAINLY WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING. GFS AND GEM-NH ARE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
WITH THE H85 LOW AND KEEP EASTERN CWA MAINLY DRY. NAM ONLY SCRAPES
FAR EAST UPR MICHIGAN WITH ANY RAIN. CONTINUE TO LEAN ON CONSISTENT
ECMWF IDEA BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOWER CHANCE RANGE. EVEN THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SHOW SHARP CUTOFF TO RAIN AND EVEN CLOUDS FROM
EAST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS TO +13C OVER WEST RESULTS IN MAX
TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER INTERIOR WEST AWAY FM ANY LAKE BREEZE
COOLING. TEMPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY STAY IN
THE 60S.
ONCE THE LOW-LEVEL LOW EXITS NORTHEAST...ATTENTION QUICKLY SWITCHES
TO INCOMING STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TROUGH TRENDING SHARPER OVER
LAST TWO DAYS AND THERE IS OKAY AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
WORK OUT. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND
THANKS TO SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK DIGGING INTO WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT TROUGH TO FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO LK
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE SWIFT MOVING
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING WSW TO ENE AS LEADING SHORTWAVE/H5 TEMPS
DOWN TO -16C CROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE SHARP COLD POCKET ALOFT/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER 40 KTS AND WBZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 10KFT...PROBABLY
NOT A STRETCH TO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS
THAT OCCUR LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTN. WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME.
DRY SLOT THEN QUICKLY ARRIVES AS LOW BECOMES VERY WRAPPED UP...SO
COULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND TO SHRA/TSRA IN THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTN AND IN THE CNTRL AND EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. THEN
TIGHT/CYCLONIC SFC-H85 FLOW IN WAKE OF COMPACT SFC LOW COMBINES WITH
COLD/MOIST ADVECTION TO GENERATE SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
CWA LATER THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY ENHANCED
FURTHER BY LIFTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. AT LEAST SOME LGT
SHOWERS OR RAIN COULD LINGER OVER SIMILAR AREAS ON FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE ECMWF SHOWS SHARP DRYING IN THE H85-H7 LAYER ON FRIDAY AFTN.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION /H85
TEMPS DOWN TO +2C/ WILL LEAD TO CHILLY FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF CWA. TEMPS
ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 60 DEGREES... WHILE
INLAND TEMPS STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S. SOME SPOTS WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
LINGERS ALL DAY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NOW FLATTER...
ALLOWING FOR QUICKER RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP ON
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE OVER WESTERN CWA BUT
BY SUNDAY EXPECT GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AS MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO BEGIN BUT BY
SUNDAY...WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGHER ML DWPNTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
MLCAPES INCREASE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF TSRA.
QUESTIONS STILL THERE ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION CAN OCCUR...BUT WITH
INCREASING DEEPER LAYER SHEAR...SUNDAY DOES SEEM TO HOLD SOME CHANCE
OF STRONGER SFC BASED STORMS. THESE TYPE OF DETAILS HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO GET IRONED OUT. OVERALL THIS PATTERN IS QUITE ACTIVE AND
THERE ARE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND TO ADD TO WHAT
HAS ALREADY BEEN A WET MONTH OVER PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WITH HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE MARINE LAYER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF MODERATE WRLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
348 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
CONVECTIVE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY HAS HELD DOWN TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
THUS...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. ATTENTION FOR THE EVENING
WILL BE FOCUSED ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE 19 UTC RAP/16 UTC HRRR PROPAGATE
THIS CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 00-01 UTC AND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY 04 UTC...AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 06
UTC. THE RAP CHARACTERIZES THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WITH 300-500
J/KG OF -10 TO -30 C HAIL CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40
KTS...SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION IN
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT AND EXPECTED INFILTRATION...THE THREAT FOR
OVERLAND OR RIVER FLOODING IS LOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
THE 500MB PATTERN ON THE EXTENDED MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
A FAIRLY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
THE EXCEPTION BEING THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH EXITS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. CLEARING SKIES WILL COMMENCE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT INTO NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW...PRODUCING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
TIME IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...BUT TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REMAINS IN
AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 65F TO 75F...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT KDIK/KJMS/KBIS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND POTENTIALLY
APPROACH KDIK BY 01 UTC...KBIS BY 04 UTC AND KJMS BY 06 UTC.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARDS MVFR/IFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS SETTING UP FROM THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...AND THE 16Z RAP INDICATES
MLCAPE 800-1000 J/KG BY 21Z. MLCIN WILL BE SUFFICIENT UNTIL 21Z TO
PREVENT SFC BASED CONVECTION. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT THE SFC CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AFTER 21Z ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. IF CONVECTION DOES
INITIATE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAIL AROUND 1.0 INCH GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS.
LIMITED THE POPS/WX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THIS LOCATION WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS SETTING UP. FOR TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED THAT 850MB-700MB FRONTOGENETICAL BAND WILL SET UP FROM
CARRINGTON TO GRAND FORKS TO ROSEAU...AND INCREASED POPS IN THIS
AREA (WHILE LIMITING POPS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL SASK MOVING INTO
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MAIN SFC LOW ASSOC WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL MANITOBA NORTH OF THE INTERLAKE REGION...WITH A WEAK FRONT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
EAST AND TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO ND ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONTINUED
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THRU NRN ND WITH SHOWERS ENTERING DEVILS
LAKE REGION. THIS IS A BIT AHEAD OF MOST MODELS...BUT LATEST HRRR
DOES HAVE SHOWER GETTING INTO THE NRN VALLEY NR 12Z-13Z BEFORE
DYING OUT. SO WILL INCLUDE MORNING POP FOR SHOWERS IN NE ND.
AFTERWARDS FOR THIS AFTN...MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH. SFC
TROUGH IS BASICALLY WASHING OUT OVER FAR NW MN/NE ND SO FORCING
FOR ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK. HOWEVER WITH ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING AS SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID- UPR 70S THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH LIFTED INDICES -2/-3 AND CAPES 1100-1500
J/KG TO GENERATE A BROKEN LINE OF TCU AND A FEW STORMS LIKELY NR A
ROX-GFK-JMS LINE LATE AFTN. THIS AXIS WILL DROP SOUTH SLOWLY THRU
THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS A 5 PCT SVR RISK AREA ALONG THE
ROX-GFK-FAR-JMS AXIS LATE AFTN AND THIS IS REASONABLE WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO RELATIVELY COLD AIR
ALOFT. BUT WIDESPREAD SVR IS NOT LIKELY.
NEXT STRONGER WAVE MOVING INTO WRN OREGON ATTM WILL MOVE INTO THE
N PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN ERN SD
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN WED LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND TSTM AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PWATS
INCREASE TO NEARLY 1.5 INCH IN RRV/WRN MN WED AFTN. HPC BRINGS
1-1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL WED-WED EVE JMS-GFK-FAR-BJI REGION AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS ON BACKSIDE OF
500 MB SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL START TO CLOSE OFF OVER MINNESOTA
LATER WED AFTN. SO IDEA OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA SEEMS REASONABLE. GFS HAS COME BACK NORTH AND CLOSE TO
GEM/ECMWF SOLN. NAM A BIT WEAKER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
RAIN TO FOCUS MORE OVER MINNESOTA WED NIGHT AND END IN ERN ND.
THEN THURSDAY WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND SUNSHINE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF 500 HPA HEIGHTS SHOW
A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY
TO A LARGE...SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF
IS MOST BULLISH WITH QPF ON SATURDAY WHEREAS THE GFS IS WETTER ON
SUNDAY. THE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE
GFS IS MORE APT TO BRING GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA COMPARED TO THE THE ECMWF...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING COMBINED WITH PWATS
AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES SUGGESTS A HIGH CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF MID-JUNE NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
SCATTERED SHRA ENTERING DVL BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDED FOR
POINTS FARTHER EAST LATER AFTN AND EVENING. STEADIER RAIN PROGGED
FOR WED MORNING WITH VSBY LIKELY LOWERING TO MVFR. BEFORE
THAT...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HEADING FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CAUSE LIGHT AND SOMETIMES VARIABLE WIND FIELD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NE WIND DURING WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONGER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
156 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY AND
THEN ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 130 PM...LATEST FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO CHANGES
NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AT 1030 AM...12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT SPC MESOANAL INDICATES THAT
ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY CAPPED. WITH GENERAL NVA ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER RIDGE EXPECT THAT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SUPPRESSED. THE LATEST HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE SBCAPES ARE THE GREATEST.
HENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO WIDELY SCATTERED RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF SHOW MUCH
LESS CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM DOES SHOW
SOME CONVECTION...BUT OVERALL BUMPED POPS DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE WIDELY SCT/SCT RANGE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW GENERALLY AFTER 00Z SO
WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISE POPS INCREASING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM DISSIPATES THE
CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING EASTERN SECTIONS. SO
CURRENT POP GRID LOOKS ON TARGET FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
STRONG INSOLATION UNDER UPPER RIDGE IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
WITH MID TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
AT 830 AM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. THE LITTLE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS HAS
DISSIPATED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP WILL
EXIST FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY OVER PIEDMONT. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED UPDRAFTS BREAKING THE CAP...BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO
THE ISOLATED RANGE PIEDMONT AREAS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC
SCALE NVA UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. IN THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. CAM`S INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY JUST THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
1100 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...REDUCING COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN SC. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO
INCORPORATE THE 06Z NAM. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...REDUCING COVERAGE IN THE EAST. AREAS OF FOG WERE
ADJUSTED PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND TOWARD
SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WILL
AMPLIFY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE
AROUND THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. THE
CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN TN AND GA IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS VIGOR TOWARD DAYBREAK AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN NC WHERE BETTER RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT...CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR QUITE GOOD TODAY
ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LARGE CAPE AND SOME SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MID SUMMER NORMAL UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
CONVECTION MAY WELL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS STABILIZATION TAKES
SOME TIME TO OCCUR...UNLESS THE AREA IS SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER BY
CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN JUST
BELOW MID SUMMER NORMALS. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOME INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION WED THRU FRI...KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES. A REMNANT TROUGH FROM THE DEEP LOW HOWEVER WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME. SWLY LLVL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWFA...AND BY LATE
WED PROG SOUNDINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY SATURATED THROUGH MOST OF THE
COLUMN. HOWEVER...PROFILES WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH EARLY IN THE DAY
TO ALLOW DEEP MIXING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
UPSTATE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AND 20-30 KT
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...THIS MAY PERMIT SOME CELLS TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.
WED NIGHT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH PROFILES LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ON THU
BUOYANCY DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT BUT WE WILL HAVE THE
ADDED FORCING FROM THE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. WHILE PWAT VALUES
WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE WED...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR
ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT THU AND SOMEWHAT INTO THU NIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW TO
MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CLOSEST THING
TO A LLJ BEING OFF TO OUR NORTH...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD OR MEMORABLE. FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK FRI MRNG
BUT WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY ANYWAY...SO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END
OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED ACRS THE PIEDMONT BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS. ON THU...CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE CWFA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF EARLY TUE MRNG...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT AND
BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONGER TROUGH OVER THE NERN US BY FRI
NIGHT...WHICH ITSELF LIFTS AWAY LEAVING THE ERN SEABOARD UNDER BROAD
AND WEAK RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/EC DIFFER ON HOW TO HANDLE A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE THAT SHEARS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
DURING THIS TIME...THE GFS LETTING THE WAVE FILL OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE EC LETS IT DRIFT EWD AND CUTS IT OFF
OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP ON ITS SRN FRINGE
WHICH MAY LIFT NWD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...THE CWFA WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN A
MOIST PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH
ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MARITIME MOISTURE FLUX. THE
GFS TRANSITIONS TO A TYPICAL SW FLOW REGIME AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THE EC FEATURES THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW. DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ATMOSPHERE STILL SUPRESSED PER THE UNIMPRESSIVE CU FIELD
ON THE LATEST VSBL SAT PIC. LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER TN WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING TO KCLT TONIGHT. THUS...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE IN THE TAF THROUGH TONIGHT. ON WED...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH SPREADING SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY SOME RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...ATMOSPHERE ALSO IS STILL SUPPRESSED PER THE UNIMPRESSIVE
CU FIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE LATEST VSBL SAT PIC.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING FORM CENTRAL TN...S INTO AL. THIS WILL MAKE A RUN
EASTWARD AND REACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ABOUT 00Z. STORMS SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN THEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO AN UPPER RIDGE.
HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A TEMPO AT KAND WHERE THE STORMS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF MAKING IT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR
NOW. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND BEEF UP THUNDER FORECAST IF IT APPEARS
THE THUNDERSTORM COPMPLEX WILL HOLD TOGETHER.
OUTLOOK...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED NIGHT ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT THAT MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY AGAIN THU INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN
VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 95%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 95%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 95%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 82%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 88% MED 60%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
153 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MO THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW STACKED NICELY JUST BELOW IT. GOOD MID LEVEL
JET ORIENTED DIRECTLY OVER THE MID STATE WITH SOME APPARENT
DIFFLUENCE ABOVE. THIS IS ALL HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE. LCL LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW AND RADAR
HAS INDICATED ROTATION WITH SOME OF THESE CELLS OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS. DIFFLUENCE AND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE APPRECIABLE AND WE EVEN
RECEIVED A LARGE HAIL REPORT AN HOUR OR SO AGO. MOVING
FORWARD...WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR SOME OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS THEY ARE NOW WITHIN THE RAIN COOLED SECTOR.
WILL FIRST ADDRESS THE FLOOD WATCH. WILL ELECT TO EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH 7 AM WED MORNING. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE MAIN
SYSTEM IS STILL LOCATED BACK ACROSS MO. HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER SWATH OF
MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MS AND NRN AL TOWARD 01Z. THIS AREA
OF MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
EMBEDDED HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AND THUS
THE REASON FOR THE TEMPORAL EXPANSION. AS FOR AN AREAL
EXPANSION?...TODAYS HEAVIER CELLS WERE RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH THERE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THEREFORE...NO NEED TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE AREA.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE UPCOMING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION?....
LOWER LEVELS WILL BE RAIN COOLED. BUT...SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO US. FURTHERMORE...JET
ENERGY WILL MOVE EASTWARD BUT AT A VERY SLOW CLIP. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS TO REACH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AND WEAKEN. SHEAR VALUES
WILL BE ON THE DOWNSWING. THAT SAID...WE`LL STILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB SEVERE.
PCLDY SKIES TO RETURN WED NT AND THU WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IN THE EXT FCST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
STORMS FOR OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM IS RATHER SMALL IN AREAL COVERAGE
HOWEVER. I WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD OUT
WAY. TEMPS WILL WARM AND POPS WILL LOWER TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.
ONE FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE SHORT TERM...WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR SOME OF
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES NOW FROM THE WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 66 81 64 84 / 70 60 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 64 79 62 83 / 60 50 20 20
CROSSVILLE 65 75 61 78 / 80 60 40 30
COLUMBIA 66 81 64 85 / 60 60 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 66 81 63 85 / 60 60 40 30
WAVERLY 64 79 61 84 / 50 50 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TNZ023>025-
056>058-060-061-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
106 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LAPS CAPES ARE AMPLIFIED ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA WITH HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU.
WESTERN AREAS WEST OF I-65 ARE GENERALLY RAIN COOLED NOW.
BUT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM CLEARING ANY WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A
LITTLE LONGER. STORMS ARE GENERALLY MOVING NE AT AROUND 35 MPH.
PLATEAU WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES COULD
COME INTO PLAY AS WE GO FORWARD.
AS FOR THE UPCOMING 7 DAY PACKAGE. WILL BE WORKING ON THE
DISCUSSION AND GRIDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXTENDED
DISCUSSION MAY BE ON THE SHORT SIDE GIVEN THE CURRENT BUSY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS/NEAR ALL TERMINALS AT
ISSUANCE. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-STATE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED
IN BETWEEN STORMS...BUT WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS/TS VIS AND CIG WILL
FALL INTO IFR CATEGORY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. IF A TERMINAL
EXPERIENCES ONE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS...HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 8-10KTS.
WHILE THIS ROUND OF WEATHER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS EVENING.
TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION SO HAVE HANDLED WITH VC. LOOK FOR
UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
UPDATE...UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NW AR THIS MORNING AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE. DEEP MOISTURE FETCH IS EVIDENT
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NE
TOWARD SW MIDDLE TN. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE CURRENT
TRAJECTORY OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SW...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE MID STATE TODAY.
WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD...SO FAR THERE ARE NO WATCH
BOXES TO OUR SOUTH. BUT...GFS ELUDES TOWARD
DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE
RAINFALL WONT ARRIVE UNTIL A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. 850 MB
SPEEDS WILL RUN AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER
LOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS STILL IN LINE ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD. 3 HOUR GUIDANCE IS ROUGHLY AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. AREAL AVERAGES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS COULD SEE CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS THAT REACH OR
SURPASS THAT LEVEL. THEREFORE...FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE LOW TO MID 70S
TEMPS AT 18Z. SINCE HIGH TEMPS ARE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT
LEVELS...THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SO TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO THE TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ023>025-
056>058-060-061-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS/NEAR ALL TERMINALS AT
ISSUANCE. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-STATE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED
IN BETWEEN STORMS...BUT WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS/TS VIS AND CIG WILL
FALL INTO IFR CATEGORY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. IF A TERMINAL
EXPERIENCES ONE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS...HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 8-10KTS.
WHILE THIS ROUND OF WEATHER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS EVENING.
TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION SO HAVE HANDLED WITH VC. LOOK FOR
UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UNGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/
UPDATE...UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NW AR THIS MORNING AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE. DEEP MOISTURE FETCH IS EVIDENT
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NE
TOWARD SW MIDDLE TN. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE CURRENT
TRAJECTORY OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SW...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE MID STATE TODAY.
WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD...SO FAR THERE ARE NO WATCH
BOXES TO OUR SOUTH. BUT...GFS ELUDES TOWARD
DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE
RAINFALL WONT ARRIVE UNTIL A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. 850 MB
SPEEDS WILL RUN AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER
LOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS STILL IN LINE ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD. 3 HOUR GUIDANCE IS ROUGHLY AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. AREAL AVERAGES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS COULD SEE CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS THAT REACH OR
SURPASS THAT LEVEL. THEREFORE...FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE LOW TO MID 70S
TEMPS AT 18Z. SINCE HIGH TEMPS ARE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT
LEVELS...THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SO TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO THE TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ023>025-
056>058-060-061-093>095.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
WATER VAPOR AND RAP MODEL 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS AMBLING
EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL.
MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF CIRRUS TIED
TO THE LOW COVERING MOST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED LOW KICKING NORTHEAST TO NEAR
KSTL BY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS COOLS THE AIR ALOFT FOR STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR BLUE
RIVER SHOWS CAPE OF 100-200J/KG WITH A CAP IN THE 700-600MB
LAYER...SO THINKING THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL...AND THUS REMOVED
MENTION FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO TOP OF IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARD
NORTHEAST IL BY 12Z. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN WI AS THAT CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND DRIFTS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO
REGION LATER ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT DEPARTING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DURING THE
MORNING...BUT NAM SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE AROUND 1100J/KG WITH 20-25KT
OF BULK SHEAR. THIS IS BASED ON SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
60S. THINKING THIS IS A BIT HIGH WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MORE IN THE
50S. THEREFORE...REALIZED CAPE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 500-
1000J/KG RANGE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON CONVECTION FOR A WIND THREAT.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND COLD FRONT. ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE 3-8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS
THE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 7-11C RANGE. MODEL CONSENSUS
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS/SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. ECMWF GENERATES 1000-1500J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WITH 20-25KT
OF BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SEVERE
THREAT.
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT THEN LAYS OUT AND BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/CENTRAL IA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL TROUGHS LOOK TO RIPPLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MISSOURI WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TONIGHT KEEPING SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE TAF SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE AREA CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP