Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/09/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
807 AM PDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
AFTER TAKING A LOOK AT THE HRRR FORECAST AND LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ADD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE BRUSHING ALONG THE OREGON BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WEISHAHN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA AND FOR PORTIONS
OF FAR WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND
EXPAND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
MORE OF WESTERN NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA AND FOR PORTIONS
OF FAR WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND
EXPAND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND MORE OF WESTERN NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
TODAY, OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. VERY
WARM, WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DEFORMATION FROM A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CAUSING RESIDUAL HIGH
CLOUDS (FROM YESTERDAY`S CONVECTION) TO PERSIST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 THIS MORNING. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN/DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, BY MID-AFTERNOON CUMULUS SHOULD BUBBLE UP ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE SIERRA AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES (WITH WEAK
TROUGH OVERHEAD) COMBINE WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE GROWTH. AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS,
MODELS DEPICT THE BEST SHOT NEAR THE SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 SO
I HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THERE AND OUT INTO EXTREME
WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. NOTE THAT FURTHER NORTH I DO
NOT HAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS DO
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY REACHING ALL THE WAY UP INTO NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY SO AT LEAST A FEW BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WITH A FEW DEGREES OF SUBSIDENCE WARMING MOVING OVERHEAD.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY, A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT OVER SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY BY EVENING, AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WHERE
EXACTLY THEY FORM IS UNCERTAIN AND MAY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WEST WIND
DEVELOPS OFF THE SIERRA. THE NAM/GFS HINT AT THE BEST SHOT EAST OF
RENO (NEAR VIRGINIA/PINE NUT RANGES) AND OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES ALONG THE WEST WIND CONVERGENCE AND IN THE BEST UPPER
FORCING REGION OF THE LOW. UNFORTUNATELY, THE SREF AND ECMWF ARE
NOT SO ALIGNED AND CAST DOUBT ON THE BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY. THEREFORE, I LEFT THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE AREA MOSTLY
ALONE OUTSIDE OF TRIMMING POP OVER NORTHERN LASSEN, WASHOE AND
EASTERN MODOC COUNTIES AS THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION FOR CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE LASSEN PEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE (AREA OF CONVERGENT
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF LASSEN PEAK).
LATE MONDAY NIGHT, THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH KEEPING CONVECTION
GOING OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH UNSTABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL PROFILES TO EASE ASCENT.
HOWEVER, I HAVE JUST LEFT GHOST POP FOR NOW WITH LARGE UNCERTAINTY
AMONG MODELS. SNYDER
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS/ENSEMBLES AGREE ON GRADUALLY DEEPENING
THE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, EXPECT A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION, IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS SHORT WAVES MOVE BY TO THE NORTH.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TUESDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS A BIT WITH A SOLID
ZEPHYR AND THIS MAY BE A LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN FOR WINDS THOUGH WILL BE THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. BOTH THE GFS/EC AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HIT THIS PERIOD FAIRLY HARD WITH LOW HUMIDITY. PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATE ON PEAK GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
LIKELY TO BE 20-25 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR
ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE COMING DAYS. LIGHTER
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVES. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE SIERRA FROM LAKE
TAHOE SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH A SMALLER CHANCE INTO THE PINE NUTS EAST
OF KCXP. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING TERMINALS WILL BE
KMMH WITH A 15% CHC WHILE IT WILL BE 5% OR SO FOR KTVL/KTRK/KCXP AND
NEAR ZERO FOR KRNO AND OTHER TERMINALS. MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY TSTMS
WILL BE PEAK GUSTS TO 45 KTS FROM OUTFLOWS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. TSTM THREAT FOR SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS
THAN 10% FOR ALL TERMINALS. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1119 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WEAK CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA STREAMS TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS EVENING. THIN RIBBON OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR AXIS THAT CUTS ACROSS FROM
NEVADA THROUGH COLORADO. AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. DIFFICULT
TO INITIATE ANY DECENT CONVECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER
ALLOWS FOR SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUD. RAP MODEL SHOWS BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL POTENTIAL OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES REACHING 500 J/KG. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FORM
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THEY WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SHORT LIVED
PULSE STORMS. WEAK DISTURBANCE PROVIDES AN EXTRA BOOST...SO THINK
THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY. OUTSIDE CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) THAT A STORM MAY DRIFT
OVER THE VALLEYS...LIKE DURANGO...PAGOSA SPRINGS...GUNNISON...AND
EAST OF RIFLE (BETTER CHANCE THAT BRIEF OUTFLOW GUSTY WINDS HIT
THESE LOCATIONS LATE AFTERNOON).
AN OPEN WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH AN
80KT JET PUSHING INTO NW NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A SFC LOW OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT...MOISTURE FROM EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE
PULLED INTO SW CO. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS MOISTURE
TAP. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ANOTHER OPEN WAVE PASSES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION AND DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL BETWEEN 0.4 TO 0.5
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MTN SHOWERS WILL FORM FIRST
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO ADJOINING VALLEYS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE ALL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE GFS IS SLOWER TO KICK THE LOW EAST SO THIS MODEL KEEPS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY EVENING MAINLY OVER NW-FACING SLOPES.
EVENTUAL CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW NORMAL. IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY...THESE SUBTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
BE MARGINAL WITH A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY AND MILD.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SHALLOW COOL FRONT SLIDING INTO NW COLORADO. THIS FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY. BUT THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER BAJA...THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH
01Z THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY. SOME OUTFLOW WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 KTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS THE MOUNTAIN
SNOWPACK MELTS UNDER PERSISTENT WARM TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST
FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON BASIN
IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. AS A RESULT...A NUMBER OF FLOOD ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO
...AND NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JDC
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1116 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WEAK CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA STREAMS TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS EVENING. THIN RIBBON OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR AXIS THAT CUTS ACROSS FROM
NEVADA THROUGH COLORADO. AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. DIFFICULT
TO INITIATE ANY DECENT CONVECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER
ALLOWS FOR SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUD. RAP MODEL SHOWS BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL POTENTIAL OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES REACHING 500 J/KG. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FORM
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THEY WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SHORT LIVED
PULSE STORMS. WEAK DISTURBANCE PROVIDES AN EXTRA BOOST...SO THINK
THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY. OUTSIDE CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) THAT A STORM MAY DRIFT
OVER THE VALLEYS...LIKE DURANGO...PAGOSA SPRINGS...GUNNISON...AND
EAST OF RIFLE (BETTER CHANCE THAT BRIEF OUTFLOW GUSTY WINDS HIT
THESE LOCATIONS LATE AFTERNOON).
AN OPEN WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH AN
80KT JET PUSHING INTO NW NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A SFC LOW OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT...MOISTURE FROM EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE
PULLED INTO SW CO. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS MOISTURE
TAP. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ANOTHER OPEN WAVE PASSES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION AND DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL BETWEEN 0.4 TO 0.5
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MTN SHOWERS WILL FORM FIRST
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO ADJOINING VALLEYS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE ALL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE GFS IS SLOWER TO KICK THE LOW EAST SO THIS MODEL KEEPS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY EVENING MAINLY OVER NW-FACING SLOPES.
EVENTUAL CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW NORMAL. IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY...THESE SUBTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
BE MARGINAL WITH A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY AND MILD.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SHALLOW COOL FRONT SLIDING INTO NW COLORADO. THIS FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY. BUT THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER BAJA...THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH
01Z THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY. SOME OUTFLOW WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 KTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1055 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
STRATUS MOSTLY CLEARED AWAY OVER ZONES 40 AND 41 THIS MORNING.
LATEST ACCARS SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE SOME CIN ON THEM. WILL NEED TO
UP TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
ARE SUPPOSED TO MAINTAIN AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM INTO THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY STILL KEEPS THE
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE PALMER RIDGE INTO THIS EVENING. THERE
IS LITTLE ELSE FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. WILL UP POPS A BIT IN THE
MORE SUNNY PLACES, BUT THAT`S IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF SWEEPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING ACROSS LOGAN AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
BEHIND THIS TROF OVER WESTERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH. STRONGER
NORTHEAST WINDS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS NOTED AT STERLING AND FORT MORGAN. STRATUS ALSO
SEEMS TO BE FINALLY MAKING SOME STRIDES SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD
ENVELOPE MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO BY SUNRISE. THERE IS SOME FOG
BUT ONLY A FEW SPOTS SHOWING DENSE FOG. IF FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD WILL LOOK AT A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG WITH STRATUS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF
THE PLAINS WILL BE TOO STABLE BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG INVERSION AROUND 750MB. LOOKS LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
FROM HRRR/RAP/NAM SHOWING STORM INITIATION OVER PARK...JEFFERSON
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM IN THOSE SECTIONS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES IN UPWARDS OF
1500J/KG AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF STATUS
AND FOG FOR LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
LOOKS LIKE THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL RESULT IN MORE LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO MORNING FORECAST. ALOFT THE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN DROPPING TOWARDS COLORADO...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL WIND UP
ALONG THE KANSAS/ CO BORDER. MODELS ARE SLOWER TONIGHT...AND
IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. COOL AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER THROUGH MID WEEK...THIS WILL USHER IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL
PASS ON WEDNESDAY...SO CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE TOWARDS THE 90S ON THE PLAINS
BY NEXT WEEKEND. DESPITE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WITH MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY LINGERING LATE ON THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE CEILING ISSUES ARE OVER WITH FOR THE TIME BEING AT DIA.
CURRENT TAF`S WIND DIRECTION SEEM ON TRACK. WILL LEAVE TEMPO GROUP
OUT FOR STORMS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE...IT STILL MAY BE TOO CAPPED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
TODAY WILL FURTHER MODERATE THE SNOWMELT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO HAVE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...KEEPING THE RUNOFF IN CHECK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK WHICH MAY INCREASE SNOWMELT.
CURRENT ADVISORIES AND THE FLOOD WARNING IN GREELEY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...SWE
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...RJK
HYDROLOGY...SWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WEAK CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA STREAMS TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS EVENING. THIN RIBBON OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR AXIS THAT CUTS ACROSS FROM
NEVADA THROUGH COLORADO. AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. DIFFICULT
TO INITIATE ANY DECENT CONVECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER
ALLOWS FOR SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUD. RAP MODEL SHOWS BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL POTENTIAL OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES REACHING 500 J/KG. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FORM
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THEY WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SHORT LIVED
PULSE STORMS. WEAK DISTURBANCE PROVIDES AN EXTRA BOOST...SO THINK
THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY. OUTSIDE CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) THAT A STORM MAY DRIFT
OVER THE VALLEYS...LIKE DURANGO...PAGOSA SPRINGS...GUNNISON...AND
EAST OF RIFLE (BETTER CHANCE THAT BRIEF OUTFLOW GUSTY WINDS HIT
THESE LOCATIONS LATE AFTERNOON).
AN OPEN WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH AN
80KT JET PUSHING INTO NW NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A SFC LOW OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT...MOISTURE FROM EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE
PULLED INTO SW CO. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS MOISTURE
TAP. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ANOTHER OPEN WAVE PASSES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION AND DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL BETWEEN 0.4 TO 0.5
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MTN SHOWERS WILL FORM FIRST
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO ADJOINING VALLEYS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE ALL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE GFS IS SLOWER TO KICK THE LOW EAST SO THIS MODEL KEEPS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY EVENING MAINLY OVER NW-FACING SLOPES.
EVENTUAL CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW NORMAL. IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY...THESE SUBTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
BE MARGINAL WITH A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY AND MILD.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SHALLOW COOL FRONT SLIDING INTO NW COLORADO. THIS FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY. BUT THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER BAJA...THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
LOCALIZED SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
HAZARD FROM 19Z-01Z...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COLORADO
HIGH COUNTRY. SOME OUTFLOW WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO 25-35 KTS. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
BENIGN CONDITIONS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1137 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS MAINTAINED DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT
MOVES IN. AS THESE MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND
ENCOUNTER CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG...EXPECT RAPID THUNDERSTORM
INTENSIFICATION. DEEP LAYER SHEARS ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60
MPH. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITIES ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH WITH SFC
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY...STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS LCLS WILL BE LOWER AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF 0-3KM
CAPE...WHICH COULD LOCALLY INTENSIFY SPIN UPS ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS
TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT WALDO BURN SCAR (MOST
VULNERABLE BURN SCAR TO RUN-OFF PROBLEMS) WILL GET MISSED...WITH ALL
THE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AN UNLUCKY STRIKE COULD CERTAINLY
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. SAME WILL BE TRUE FOR THE OTHER BURN SCARS
IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. THOSE IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS SHOULD MAINTAIN A
HEIGHTENED AWARENESS OF THE WEATHER TODAY. ACTIVITY MARCHES
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING WITH MOST HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WAA OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH MAY KEEP GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VERY DRY SFC DEW POINTS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER TROF
APPROACHING OUT WEST...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND MOVE OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. APPEARS HIGHEST CAPE AND BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER TOMORROW...BUT 0-6KM
SHEARS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS...SO IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
CAN BE REALIZED IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THEN THERE
WILL BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. GREATEST CONCERN THOUGH WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE BURN SCARS. THIS RISK MAY
ACTUALLY INCREASE FOR SATURDAY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT
HIGH RES MODELS AND HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF NECESSARY.
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL MEAN A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER
INTO MID WEEK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COULD BE ANOTHER MCS ROLLING ACROSS THE
FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
BACK ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MTS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
LOOKS TO SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING UVV AHEAD
OF PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM. WITH AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...COULD POSSIBLY SEE TRAINING STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND ESPECIALLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
BURN SCARS. SHOULD SEE STORMS MOVING OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND PASSING TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN 4C AND 10C ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSING TROUGH...LEADING TO A COOL DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
SOME 5-15F BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN SETS UP WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE STATE MONDAY AND FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY BY MORE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...PASSING NORTHERN TIER SYSTEM SENDS A BACKDOOR
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
STILL SOME LEFTOVER CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS
VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING AS SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSH WEST
TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. WON`T MENTION ANY TSRA IN TAFS FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT...THOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENTS AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THROUGH 07Z-08Z. OUTSIDE OF
TSRA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR STRATUS (BKN030-040) AFTER 10Z OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS...INCLUDING KPUB AND KCOS. AFTER 18Z SAT...SCT
TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB AND KCOS 19Z-23Z. KALS
WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE FOR TSRA...THOUGH STORMS HERE WILL BE
HIGHER BASED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
WITH A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SHOWERS WERE ENCROACHING ON OUR WESTERN BORDER.
IN FACT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE PROBABLY MADE IT
INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY WITH THE LION SHARE STILL OVER CENTRAL
NEW YORK. UPSTREAM RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIED.
ITHACA HAD A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING NEARLY HALF
AN INCH INCH WHILE OTHER STATIONS WERE A LOT LESS.
THE TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY NEAR OUR
REGION AS OUR 00Z RAOB INDICATED VERY DRY AIR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COLUMN. THIS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVERNIGHT BUT UNTIL THEN...IT
WOULD BE HARD FOR RAIN DROPLETS TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
SO...FOR THIS UPDATE...SLOWED DOWN THE CHANCE OF ARRIVAL OF THE
SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...SO MOST PLACES MAY NOT SEE THEM UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT (EXCEPT THE WESTERN SCHOHARIE AND THE CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEYS WHERE THEY SHOULD BEGIN A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT).
HOWEVER...MOST PLACES FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL SEE THEM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL BACK IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE LATEST
RUC INDICATED SHOWALTER VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT +2 AFTER
MIDNIGHT...NOT REALLY THAT UNSTABLE. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER IN BUT NOT UNTIL 200 AM ON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RISE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW AS
ANY RAIN SHOWERS COULD COOL TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED BUT WEAKENING
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE I80 CORRIDOR
OVER WESTERN NEW STATE. LATEST SHORT TERM DETERMINISTIC MODELS POINT
TOWARD THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND WEAKENING. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST WITH ITS SIGNATURES SO WE WILL KEEP POPS WELL INTO THE
SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR THE NIGHT. AS THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AT NIGHT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE WEAK...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER OVERNIGHT. AS FOR LOWS...GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AS THIS WAVE WEAKENS AND MID LEVEL FORCING PASSES EAST...A DIFFUSE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWFA THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY. A LAYER OF DEFORMATION AND SOME QG FORCING ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT AS THIS TOO
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THOUGHTS ARE THE MAV
MOS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL AS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY CLIMB THROUGH THE 70S. SO WE WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MET/ECMWF VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
AND EAST PER THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE NAM REMAINING
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT AND IS THE OUTLIER. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE REGION WITH NOT MUCH
SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS JUST NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDING THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS WITH THE WEAK
THETA-E ADVECTION. CHC-SCT POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I90 CORRIDOR...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE NORTH.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO L60S.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...A VERY COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT SETS UP ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE POSITION AND EVENTUAL LIFTING OF THE FRONT/S/
ALONG WITH THE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION. THE NAM
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH TUESDAY AS WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPPING
SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. ONE
NOTABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLIMBING INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
DESPITE THIS RIDGING IN PLACE...A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
SITUATED JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL START TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS TOWARDS
ONTARIO AND WEAKENS...AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH TEMPS
CONTINUED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
BY FRIDAY...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
IN THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALSO BE APPROACHING THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WILL DETERMINE JUST
HOW STRONG ANY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BECOME...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT
FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH MAY LIMIT
INSTABILITY. ALSO...WITH PWATS SURGING TO OVER 1.50
INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING FRIDAY NIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60...WITH MAX TEMPS ON SAT IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AT ALL THE
TERMINALS.
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...DECIDED TO REMOVE THE TEMPO AT KALB/KPOU AND
KPSF FOR MVFR SHOWERS RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. NEW
GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WORKING TOWARD THE
TERMINALS MIGHT BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO REALLY IMPACT VISIBILITIES.
STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL
HAPPEN...BUT TIMING IS TRICKY AND CONFIDENCE HAS SLIPPED BELOW 50
PERCENT THAT IT WILL HAPPEN AT ALL.
DID HOWEVER...INTRODUCE A 3SM MIST AFTER 06Z AT KGFL SINCE THE
CLOUDS APPEARED THINNEST UP THERE...AND THE DEWPOINT THERE HAS
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S ALONG WITH NO WIND.
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
UPSTREAM LOOKS TO MOVE ON THROUGH AROUND 12Z BUT WEAKENING EVEN
MORE.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH...KEEPING VFR CLOUDS AROUND AND POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. FOR NOW...JUST LEFT VCSH IN FOR
NOW THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES ARE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE
RAINFREE...AND THREAT OF MVFR/IFR OR A THUNDERSTORM WAS LOW ENOUGH
TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AT OR LESS
THAN 10KTS THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THIS CHANCE FOR WET
WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40 TO 65
PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
AN INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A HIGHER CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER TOWARD
THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE FROM THE LATEST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH ANY CONVECTION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXCEEDING
A HALF AN INCH.
THE PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ARE GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
A TRICKY FORECAST THIS EVENING CONCERNING POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NY/PA. CONSIDERING THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
DISCERNED FROM 0Z SOUNDINGS /ALBANY AND CHATHAM IN PARTICULAR/ AND
PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER E NEW ENGLAND AND THE GULF OF MAINE...FEEL
WET-WEATHER WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN ADVECTING E INTO NEW ENGLAND.
IN ADDITION...NEAR-TERM FORECAST SOLUTIONS SIGNAL DEAMPLIFYING OF
THE ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE W AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF A DEEP-LOW CENTER MOVING INTO THE S PLAINS.
INVESTIGATING NEAR-TERM FORECAST SOLUTIONS...THE RAP HAS ACTIVITY
RUNNING UP AGAINST A WALL OF DRY-AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE GOING NO
FURTHER E THAN THE CT-VALLEY...WHEREAS THE HRRR PUSHES ENERGY E
INTO SNE BY MORNING...BUT KEEPING THE BULK OF ACTIVITY TO THE S
TOWARDS REGIONS OF BETTER THETA-E / INSTABILITY.
WILL CONTINUE THE INHERITED FORECAST KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
FAR E AS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY. DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE AREA QUIET OVERNIGHT. ONGOING ACTIVITY TO THE W SHOULD
WEAKEN AS ALREADY SEEN PER LESSENING LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
WARMING CLOUD TOPS. LOWS DOWN AROUND 60-DEGREES WITH STREAMING
HIGH CLOUDS ACTING AS A BLANKET. THIS LESSENS THE THREAT OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG WHICH WAS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE IN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE LEFTOVER ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INFLUX...BUT APPEARS MOST WILL REMAIN S AND W OF N
CENTRAL CT/SW MA. WILL SEE LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE CT
VALLEY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT E LATE
IN THE DAY...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE SW. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE MOISTURE AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TO APPROACH BY LATE IN THE
DAY.
WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...BUT
MIGHT SEE MORE SUN OVER NE MA AT LEAST INTO MIDDAY. AGAIN...BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS...WHILE IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY OVER E MA. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S...BUT
COULD REACH THE LOWER 80S OVER S CENTRAL NH/NE MA.
MONDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW APPROACHES...BRINGING A
BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO NOTING DECENT
INSTABILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIFTED INDICES AROUND -1 AND K INDICES
AROUND 30...SO MAY EVEN SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. EXPECT TEMPS
TO ONLY FALL BACK TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING WEEK
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY TUE AND AGAIN FRI
LARGER SCALE FLOW THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FEATURES AMPLIFIED FLOW
WITH BLOCKING OVER NORTH ATLANTIC AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL PART OF COUNTRY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY
DICTATED BY SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WHICH SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY RUN UP INTO RIDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
TUE...
FIRST SHORT WAVE ARRIVES TUE. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD LIE NEAR
OR JUST N OF REGION TUE MORNING. CERTAINLY BETTER INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR S...BUT CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
HAVE EFFECT ON HOW FAR S /AND HOW QUICKLY/ FRONT PUSHES S OF NEW
ENGLAND BY TUE NIGHT.
STAYED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. BROAD S
FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN 60S/70S. LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE HUMID AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
INTO LOWER 60S.
WED INTO THU...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS FIRST SHORT
WAVE EXITS OFFSHORE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING /ESPECIALLY E OF WORCESTER HILLS/ AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SUPPRESSED TO MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS SHOULD
ALSO BE AREA WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FAVORED AS AIRMASS REMAINS
MORE STABLE ON N SIDE OF BOUNDARY WITH E/NE FLOW...SO LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY FROM GUIDANCE.
12Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THU SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH FEW SHOWERS MAY TRY TO REACH WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM GREAT LAKES.
FRI...
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS N FROM MID ATLANTIC AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...LOOKS DOUBTFUL
THAT WE WILL WARM SECTOR DURING DAY DUE TO STRENGTH OF E/SE FLOW
ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT. IN FACT WE MAY NOT SEE THIS OCCUR UNTIL
COLD FRONT REACHES WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. SHOULD TURN A
LITTLE MORE HUMID ONCE AGAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN 60S.
SAT AND SUN...
TREND IS FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER AS COLD FRONT HEADS
OFFSHORE EARLY SAT MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS SHOW SOME POSSIBILITY OF SPOT SHOWER REDEVELOPING
NEAR COAST SAT AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS VERY LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT.
SEA BREEZES WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z WITH LIGHT S/SW FLOW. VFR CIGS
AOA 100 OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS ADVANCE E FROM UPSTATE NY. MAY ALSO
SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS REACH W NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON /09Z-11Z/.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS N
CENTRAL CT INTO SW MA.
MONDAY NIGHT...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE TSRA ACROSS E SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/STORMS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN W NEW ENGLAND. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/STORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS MAY REACH UP
TO 4 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA...ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT
BY THU/FRI ON OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE COD DUE TO S/SE FLOW. EXPECT
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AS FRONT DROPS S THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND...THEN DRY WEATHER WED/THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S FROM
MARITIMES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FRI
WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
735 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
WITH A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...FOLLOWING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK. RADAR
EXTRAPOLATION INDICATED THESE SHOWERS COULD REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES
A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER...THE CAPITAL
REGION AND POINTS EAST FROM MIDNIGHT ON. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE INFLUX
APPEARS TO INITIALLY BE FROM ALBANY SOUTH.
LEFT THE POPS AS THEY WERE HANDED TO US. FOR THIS UPDATE DID
INCREASE CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY (MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS). OTHERWISE
MINOR TWEAKS ON THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS. IF
WE WERE TO GET THE CLOUDS AND NOT SHOWERS (A POSSIBILITY AS THE AIR
IS DRY FROM ALBANY NORTH AND EAST...POSSIBLY DRYING THE SHOWERS
OUT)...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY NEED TO BE A RAISED
A FEW DEGREES. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET.
BOTTOM LINE...A FINE EVENING THROUGH DARK...THEN THE SHOWERS MOVE IN
AFTER DARK...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TOWARD MIGHT NIGHT...EXCEPT AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE HUDSON
RIVER EAST.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE I80 CORRIDOR APPROACHING
WESTERN NEW STATE. LATEST SHORT TERM DETERMINISTIC MODELS POINT
TOWARD THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND WEAKENING. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST WITH ITS SIGNATURES SO WE WILL KEEP POPS WELL INTO THE
SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR THE NIGHT. AS THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AT NIGHT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE WEAK...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER OVERNIGHT. AS FOR LOWS...GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AS THIS WAVE WEAKENS AND MID LEVEL FORCING PASSES EAST...A DIFFUSE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWFA THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY. A LAYER OF DEFORMATION AND SOME QG FORCING ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT AS THIS TOO
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THOUGHTS ARE THE MAV
MOS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL AS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY CLIMB THROUGH THE 70S. SO WE WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MET/ECMWF VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
AND EAST PER THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE NAM REMAINING
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT AND IS THE OUTLIER. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE REGION WITH NOT MUCH
SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS JUST NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDING THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS WITH THE WEAK
THETA-E ADVECTION. CHC-SCT POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I90 CORRIDOR...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE NORTH.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO L60S.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...A VERY COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT SETS UP ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE POSITION AND EVENTUAL LIFTING OF THE FRONT/S/
ALONG WITH THE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION. THE NAM
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH TUESDAY AS WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPPING
SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. ONE
NOTABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLIMBING INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
DESPITE THIS RIDGING IN PLACE...A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
SITUATED JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL START TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS TOWARDS
ONTARIO AND WEAKENS...AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH TEMPS
CONTINUED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
BY FRIDAY...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
IN THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALSO BE APPROACHING THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WILL DETERMINE JUST
HOW STRONG ANY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BECOME...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT
FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH MAY LIMIT
INSTABILITY. ALSO...WITH PWATS SURGING TO OVER 1.50
INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING FRIDAY NIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60...WITH MAX TEMPS ON SAT IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT
ALL THE TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...AS A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
THROUGH...WE HAVE JUST ENOUGH CONFIDENCE (50 PERCENT) TO DROP
CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY TO MVFR (3SM SHRA) AT ALL BUT THE KGFL. AT
THAT SITE...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE SHOWERS MIGHT WEAKEN A LOT
BEFORE GETTING THERE. IF NO RAIN FALLS THERE...COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A LIGHT BREEZE WOULD PERHAPS BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW WE LEFT IT OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT.
ELSEWHERE...AGAIN HAVE A TEMPO 06Z-10Z FOR MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS.
THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER BUT FOR NOW...NO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THE THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW (25 PERCENT).
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE ON BY AROUND 12Z...BUT WE ARE LEFT
WITH CLOUDS AND THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE SO WE WILL
LEFT VCSH IN FOR NOW THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES ARE MUCH OF THE TIME
WILL BE RAINFREE...AND THREAT OF MVFR/IFR OR A THUNDERSTORM WAS LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AT OR LESS
THAN 10KTS THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THIS CHANCE FOR WET
WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40 TO 65
PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
AN INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A HIGHER CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER TOWARD
THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE FROM THE LATEST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH ANY CONVECTION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXCEEDING
A HALF AN INCH.
THE PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ARE GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
929 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR EARLIER THIS
EVENING CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND WIND DOWN. THERE ARE MULTIPLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE MANY DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
MOST ARE MOVING WEST...SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE COAST ALTHOUGH WITH MORE ISOLD TO
SCT COVERAGE AS INSTABILITY IS LOST. RADAR TREND SUGGEST SRN
COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE BETTER CHCS FOR PRECIP REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...BUT THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NATURE
COAST AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED POPS ALREADY TO BRING PRECIP FURTHER
WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND POPS A LITTLE
LATER INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL. APPEARS LIKE A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR DAY
IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN
POSSIBLE. SPC CONTINUES W/ 5% SEVERE PROBS SIMILAR TO VALUES
FORECAST FOR TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...DISORGANIZED TSTMS AND ASSOC BOUNDARIES MAKE IT TOUGH
TO FORECAST PROBABILITY MUCH LESS TIMING OF TSTMS AT TAF SITES.
ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA/TSTMS MAY IMPACT SRN COASTAL TAF SITES IN
NEXT 3-5 HOURS (SRQ, PGD, FMY, RSW). LOOKS LIKE WITH A WEAK
EASTERLY WIND...MAY HAVE GREATER PROBABILITY OF AFTN TSTMS AT ALL
TAF SITES ON MON. ONLY SIG VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THOSE ASSOC
W/ STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
NEAR TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE HAS PUSHED INLAND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FIRE
EAST OF I-75 AND THIS IS WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY
LEFTOVER STORMS DISSIPATE. FOR MONDAY...THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE GULF WILL BUILD EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL HOLD ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND ALLOW BOTH THE WEST
AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PROPAGATE INLAND. THIS WILL AGAIN BE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION.
MID TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA AS A STRONG TROUGH BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH
FOR BOTH EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO ADVANCE INLAND. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2.0
INCHES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR.
ADDITIONALLY...THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST COULD SEE HIGH STORM
CHANCES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORCES
ITSELF ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
BY MIDWEEK...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SPRAWLED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL SLOWLY TREK EAST TOWARDS THE
ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
FLORIDA WILL ALLOW IT TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING A FAIRLY REPETITIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS
IN THE MORNINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. KLAL STILL HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT
EXPERIENCING REDUCTIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL LEAVE VCTS
IN FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NEEDED.
MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK
THEN GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN HAZARD EACH DAY WILL BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. JUST SOME PATCHY AND SHALLOW
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 91 77 88 / 30 30 10 40
FMY 74 92 76 88 / 30 30 20 50
GIF 74 93 76 89 / 50 50 20 50
SRQ 74 88 76 88 / 20 30 20 40
BKV 70 92 74 89 / 40 30 10 40
SPG 78 90 79 87 / 30 30 10 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...88/GITTINGER
AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...WEAK MCV OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AWAY
FROM FLORIDA...WITH ASCD WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SE TO THE
COAST NEAR KMLB-SIPF1. THE SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND RUC IMAGERY IS CROSSING THE
FL/GS BORDER AND DROPPING SEWD. STRONGER W-NW SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
ECFL HAS THUS FAR PINNED THE ECSB TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COASTS...
WITH A SLOW INLAND PUSH SOUTH OF MLB. HOWEVER...VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEHIND OUTFLOW BDRY IS ALLOWING FORMATION TO OCCUR FATHER
NORTH...AND WE SHOULD SEE AVERY SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN
INTERIOR COS TOWARD SUNSET.
LOCAL 88DS HAVE SHOWN 2 OR 3 CELLS THUS FAR...ALONG THE ECSB WHILE
THE WCSB HAS BEEN TOO DIFFUSE WITH THE AIR MASS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIP. THIS IS NOT AT ALL SURPRISING GIVEN WHAT THE MORNING RAOBS
LOOKED LIKE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE ACTIVE OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH OF FORT-MYERS-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-STUART.
TONIGHT...STILL HOLDING OUT FOR A MORE ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SE AND OVHD...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TS TO FORM ACROSS NORTH AND NE
FL. NWRLY STEERING FLOW OF AROUND 20KT WILL PUSH WHATEVER CAN
FORM SEWD THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THE
FARTHER NORTH ONE HEADS.WILL CONTINUE WET SEASON BEST PRACTICE OF
RUNNING WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO ADDRESS STORM CHANCES THROUGH
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH POPS/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE EQUALLY HIGH...IF
NOT A BIT HIGHER FOR A FEW HRS AFTER 8PM/SUNSET COMPARED TO 5-8PM.
SUN-TUE...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS INITIALLY EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE
ADJCT ATLC ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF FL...BUT WILL MOVE EWD AWAY
FROM THE STATE...WITH THE GOMEX RIDGE REBUILDING/EXPANDING EWD
LATE SUNDAY. THE ECM AND GFS SHOW A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT
OF DISPARITY FOR MONDAY WITH THE GFS HOLDING ONTO MORE OF A
WEAKNESS AT H50...WITH MORE RIDGING SHOWN BY THE PREFERRED ECM.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN BY TUE. OVERALL THE GFS IS
ABOUT 20M LOWER WITH HGTS BOTH DAYS. A SLOW MOISTENING TREND IS
STILL PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TOWARD
1.75-2.0. FORECAST SHOWS 40-50 POPS (N-S) FOR SUNDAY...30 COAST/
40 INLAND FOR MON...AND 50 AREAWIDE ON TUE WITH SLGT CHC/ISOLATED
(20) EACH EVENING. TEMPS IN THE U80S ALONG THE COAST AND L90S
INLAND...CLOSE TO CLIMO.
WED-FRI (PREV)...S/SW LOW LVL FLOW AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE AND MID
LAYER SW STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE LWR MS
VALLEY INTO SE STATES WILL FOCUS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 PCT RAIN CHANCES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN GFS MOS WITH PWATS UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S COAST TO AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...WENT WITH VCTS/VCSH IN THE 21-03Z...AND ITS LIKELY THAT
WE`LL BE LOOKING MORE MORE AT THE LAST FEW HRS OF THAT WINDOW FOR
POTENTIAL TEMPO TS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER.
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS WITH WINDS MAINLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF SIPF1. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3 FT OFFSHORE.
MON-THU...S-SW FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE WITH WINDS
BECOMING SE NEAR THE COAST MOST AFTERNOONS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE UP TO 3 FT OFFSHORE INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 89 71 90 / 50 40 20 30
MCO 73 92 74 94 / 40 40 20 40
MLB 72 89 73 89 / 40 40 20 30
VRB 72 91 72 89 / 30 40 20 30
LEE 74 93 75 93 / 40 40 20 40
SFB 75 93 75 94 / 50 40 20 40
ORL 76 92 76 94 / 40 40 20 40
FPR 71 90 72 90 / 20 50 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...MOSES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
955 EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
...CONTINUED MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES...
.UPDATE...
THICKER CS DEBRIS LEFTOVER FROM THE DECAYING MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS
NORTH FL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS THINNING OVER LAND WHILE A FEW
REMNANT SHOWERS CONTINUE WELL OUT OVER THE ATLC. THE ASCD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT SAGGED ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CWA APPEARS TO BE
WASHING OUT WITH SLACKENING NW TO WNW WINDS IN PLACE JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE ATTM. WATERVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL H50 VORT RIPPLES
EMBEDDED IN THE W AND NW FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE PERSISTENT
HEAT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW AND TX ACROSS THE GOMEX AND
INTO THE FL PENINSULA. RUC ANLYS SHOWS ONE OF THESE IMPULSES
OFFSHORE NE/NORTH CTRL FL...ANOTHER OVER CTRL GA...AND STILL ANOTHER
APPROACHING THE MID TO LWR MS RIVER VALLEY.
MORNING RAOBS FROM TBW/XMR CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY/WARM LAYER BETWEEN
H80-H60 WITH MEAN PWATS ONLY 1.3" TO 1.5". GPS IPW INDICATES VALUES
A TENTH OR TWO HIGHER TO THE NORTH. THIS AIR MASS (AND IN PARTICULAR
THAT WARM/DRY LAYER) WILL NEED TO MODIFY BEFORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CU ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LCL SEA/LAKE BREEZE BDRYS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP TO PRODUCE PRECIP IN ABSENCE OF A BDRY COLLISION. FORTUNATELY
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE H50 IMPULSE CURRENTLY ACROSS GA DROPPING SE
ACROSS NORTH/CTRL FL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ACT
TO ERODE THE EASTERN END OF THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE THERMAL CAP
OVHD. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE ACROSS NORTH
FL WITH NW STEERING FLOW PUSHING SHRA/TS SE INTO THE CTRL PENINSULA.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NW-SE GRADIENT IN
POPS AS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNSET SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT HIGHER
TOWARD NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA...AS OPPOSED TO COASTAL ST LUCIE/MARTIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR NOW...VCTS FROM ABOUT 21Z TO 02Z OR 03Z IS STILL THE
BEST PLAY ACROSS THE NORTH/INTERIOR UNTIL WE SEE HOW ACTIVE THINGS
ACROSS AND UPSTREAM FROM THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL AMD WHEN/IF NEEDED
AFTER THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE GOES OUT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE ADJCT CTRL FL ATLC FAIRLY LIGHT/CHAOTIC DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SEAS ARE ONLY 2-3FT
ATTM. EXPECT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO BECOME DOMINANT WITH SEAS
REMAINING FAIRLY TRANQUIL OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS. MAIN CONCERN FOR
MARINE INTERESTS WILL BE STORMS MOVING BACK OFFSHORE FROM VERY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON (TOWARD SUNSET) INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEPENDENT UPON STORM
COVERAGE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...MOSES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
330 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2014
...Isolated severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The forecast for the next 12-18 hours will be complicated by a messy
mesoscale weather pattern due to the effects of a large MCS that
traversed the forecast area overnight. Surface thetae in the wake of
the MCS has fallen about 10-15K, with a more substantial cold pool
than numerical models are indicating. This is likely to have some
effects on the forecast that the models are not grasping at this
time. One feature of interest will be an outflow boundary stretching
from AAF-CEW-MEI (roughly Apalachicola to Meridian MS) that is
reinforced by the warmer Gulf waters. The outflow boundary is likely
to be a focusing mechanism for convective development today.
Immediately in the wake of the MCS our forecast area should be in a
brief period of subsidence from 06-12Z. The HRRR was indicating
thunderstorm development along the outflow boundary prior to
sunrise, but this seems unlikely.
Therefore, convective re-development should occur after sunrise,
although it could be earlier than is typical for June in this area.
Models are in good agreement that a mid-upper level PV anomaly
should push into the area around 15-18Z, and this could contribute
to some earlier thunderstorm activity along and near the outflow
boundary. Overall, the primary convective focus today seems to be
the aforementioned outflow boundary - which should place the best
thunderstorm chances in our Florida zones. Northern parts of our
area, particularly southwest Georgia, should be more stable given
the convective overturning by the previous MCS. Some storms could be
severe once again, as models are in good agreement on moderate to
strong instability and about 35-40 knots of 0-6km wind shear. The
combination of instability and shear could lead to some organized
multicell structures with a threat for damaging winds and marginally
severe hail. As the PV anomaly pushes through, a corresponding
shortwave ridge should build in around 00-03Z, which should lead to
a decrease in the intensity and coverage of thunderstorms around the
end of the period.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
Scattered thunderstorms will gradually diminish during the evening,
though a few marginally severe storms will remain possible until
around 11 pm EDT. The GFS and ECMWF have some subtle differences in
their solutions in our region. The GFS maintains a weak short wave
trough (with enhanced deep layer moisture) at 500 mb across the FL
Peninsula through Monday, while the ECMWF develops a
500 mb high over Apalachee Bay by Monday afternoon. The GFS solution
would imply higher rain chances for our area, especially over our
eastern zones. The ECMWF would suggest a drying trend, especially by
Monday. Our solution is a blend of the two, with a southwest to
northeast PoP gradient ranging from 20% along the FL Panhandle Coast
to 40% north of Valdosta and Albany. This PoP distribution remains the
same for Monday, but is lower everywhere by 10%. A few pulse
severe storms are possible Sunday afternoon, but the synoptic
pattern does not appear quite as favorable for severe storms as
what we expect today. Our temperature forecast represents the
consensus of the guidance, with highs in the mid 90s and lows in
the lower 70s. If the ECMWF verifies better than the GFS, high
temperatures may be a little warmer than this.
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The synoptic pattern will shift to a more normal amplified
summertime scenario with ridging over west, positively tilted
trough over Cntrl and ridge over ern most states. Several H5
impulses will rotate around assocd closed low at base of trough.
This trough will pivot Ewd and amplify with axis over local region
by sunrise Thurs leading to increasing Gulf inflow of deep layer
moisture, an upward trend in precip and increased chances of
strong to severe storms. Axis will then slowly shift and lift ENE.
Expect possibly Wed and Thurs, afternoon diurnally driven
seabreezes will be the main generator of convection each day with
locally heavy rain wherever boundaries clash. Some model
difference in how much Gulf deep moisture inflow advects Newd
ahead of trough and, what impact, if any, weak low Gulf low will
have. Low across Yucatan to start the period which by mid week is
forecast to move into Ern gulf along a surface trough axis and all
this lessens confidence of forecast beyond day 4 until models come
into better agreement.
Daytime rain chances will vary from 30% Tues and 40-50% Wed thru
Fri. Highs will reach the lower to mid 90s on Mon, low 90s Tues
and around 90 Wed thru Fri.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday] VFR conditions may be interrupted by some MVFR
CIGS or VIS in the 10-15Z timeframe at some of the terminals. A
return to VFR conditions is expected after that, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms again - particularly in the afternoon. The
best chances of thunderstorms will be at ECP, TLH, and VLD. Some of
the strongest storms could produce gusty winds upwards of 30 knots
and briefly produce IFR VIS.
&&
.Marine...
The surface pressure pattern will remain essentially unchanged
through early next week, as our marine area remains situated between
a weak trough to the north and a ridge to our south, resulting in
mainly light west to southwest winds and relatively low seas. The
exception will be during the afternoon & evening hours, when strong
daytime heating will cause winds and chop to increase to moderate
levels near the coast.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity will remain well above critical thresholds, so red
flag conditions are not expected.
&&
.Hydrology...
Most of the significant rain on Friday occurred in Southeast AL and
South GA. Basin averages ranged from 0.50 to 2 inches- with a few
spot amounts of around 3 inches. This will of course cause some
sudden rises in river stages/flows this weekend in this region, but
at this time we don`t expect any river flooding. Just how much
increase occurs will become clearer later this morning, when the
river models first ingest the actual rainfall amounts. Otherwise,
nearly all of our local rivers were below action stage.
We expect rainfall totals from today through Monday to range from
0.30 to 0.75 inches, with the highest values from Tallahassee
eastward. Because this will occur in an area that didn`t get much
rain on Friday, river flooding is unlikely in these areas.
Otherwise, locally heavy rain will be possible this afternoon and
evening, but the probability of flash flooding is low.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 92 72 93 71 94 / 60 40 30 30 20
Panama City 85 75 87 74 87 / 50 20 20 20 10
Dothan 93 74 94 73 95 / 50 30 30 30 20
Albany 94 73 94 72 95 / 40 20 40 40 20
Valdosta 93 71 95 71 96 / 60 40 40 40 20
Cross City 89 71 92 69 92 / 50 30 30 30 20
Apalachicola 86 74 87 74 87 / 30 20 10 20 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
702 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE PLUS A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH STRONG
HEATING AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS HELPED SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE SEVERE...MAINLY AROUND LAKE
WATEREE.
THE RAP SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD. RADAR
HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH INTENSITY LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND DIMINISHED SURFACE HEATING. THE THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
FURTHER COOLING OCCURS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND INTERACTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE EVENING AND NO THUNDERSTORMS LATE. BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND DIURNAL COOLING WE HAVE FORECASTED LOW POPS.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY.
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST.
A WEAKENING FRONT/TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY AND ALONG ANY SEA BREEZE INTERACTION.
STRONGER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTH AND DEEP/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE. KEPT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MOS CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
MONDAY AND IN THE MID 90S TUESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY. BY FRIDAY
THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST IN LIFTING THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY OPENS UP OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL HOLD MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FOR END
OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE AND THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SOME MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN A RETURN TO GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE
MORNING. STRONG HEATING WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE CHANCE AGAIN TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
206 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ONGOING RADAR TRENDS NECESSITATED A
COMPLETE REWORK OF THE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING QUICKLY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DIFFUSE FRONT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BISECT THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL
THE RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION AND HOPEFULLY ITS FUTURE EVOLUTION. I HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY
AND COLLETON COUNTY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE THINKING
FROM HERE FORWARD IS THAT THE AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
CLOUD COVER SEEMS TO HAVE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH SKIES CLEARING THERE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT STILL REMAINS LOW THANKS TO LESSER INSTABILITY THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS AND RATHER PEDESTRIAN LOOKING MID LEVELS. CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD.
TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER MID LEVELS COME IN AND WE
TRIMMED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MID EVENING FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
STALLED BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES AT THE SFC WHILE A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WEAK MID LVL RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORCING FROM THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS SFC TEMPS PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
WEAK WIND SHEAR...MARGINAL MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND PWATS BETWEEN
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGEST PULSE TYPE CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...NEAR 70 DEGREES.
MONDAY...PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEAR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY AS THE BULK OF H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH AND
OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO MID LVL RIDGING EXTENDING SLIGHTLY MORE OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY ADVANCING EAST OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SUPPORT SBCAPES
NEAR 2000 J/KG OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.75 INCHES
DURING PEAK HEATING. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THUS REMAIN THE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY FOCUSED ALONG AN INLAND MOVING
SEABREEZE. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN PULSE TYPE IN NATURE GIVEN WEAK
SHEAR. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR 70
DEGREES.
TUESDAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO
MIDWEEK. MID LVL RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. A FEW MODELS INSIST THAT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA WHILE A SFC LOW SHIFTS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES NEAR 3000
J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES BETWEEN -10C TO -13C...MID LVL LAPSE
RATES NEAR -7C/KM AND PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INLAND MOVING
SEABREEZE. WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF ACTIVITY TO A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET. IF TRENDS PERSIST...CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL INCREASE AS WE APPROACH TUESDAY EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A GENERAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. SUFFICIENT LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE TEMPS PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE
WEEKEND...THUS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM CONCERN FOR THE TERMINALS IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. KCHS ALREADY HAS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AND THE TAF HAS BEEN INITIALIZED
WITH VCTS. I HAVE ALSO ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR TS CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. THEREAFTER...THE THINKING IS THAT THE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS KSAV. AS SUCH...I HAVE A SIMILAR
TEMPO AT KSAV BETWEEN 20Z-23Z. OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AND BOTH SITES ARE VFR THROUGH INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY DESCEND INTO WATERS.
THE CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT ALTHOUGH DIRECTIONS WILL BE SHIFTING ONSHORE
AS THE FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE WATERS. THE MOST NOTABLE ONSHORE
SURGE COULD COME LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND OFF OF CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND WE ARE ONLY TALKING 10-15 KT...PERHAPS 15 KT TOPS BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SEAS 1-3 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS A STALLED BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN
APPROACH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED INTO
MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KT WHILE
SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
949 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Updated the forecast to account for the swath of light to moderate
rains moving eastward near the Mississippi River. It has shown
signs of weakening in intensity in the last hour and expect that
trend to continue through midnight, as it moves through the
Purchase Area of Kentucky and the southern tip of Illinois. Would
also expect it to become more focused along the Tennessee border
area late this evening. See no instability to support the thunder
mention, so removed it for the remainder of the night.
Trended the PoP grids back toward the original forecast overnight,
but really don`t see much in the latest guidance to support the
likely PoPs in southeast Missouri. It appears that the morning may
be dry throughout the area before the next round arrives in the
afternoon. Will work on the forecast for this first area of rain
and let the midnight shift deal with the early morning timeframe.
Also had to increase cloud cover throughout the area through the
night, with the latest satellite trends supported by the latest
short term guidance. This led to a slight increase in Lows,
especially in the northeast.
UPDATE Issued at 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Made some adjustments to PoPs over southeast Missouri through the
evening to reflect latest radar trends. The primary rainshield
will impact the western 4 counties for a few hours, but not sure
how far east it will make it. The 18Z GFS may be onto something
with this disturbance moving east across the southern half of the
area through the evening, and then drying out in its wake
overnight. It is likely overdone with QPF as it heads eastward
through the area, but the overall trend may not be that bad.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Some slight pre-issuance adjustments were made to parts of Ripley
and Butler County Missouri with respect to precipitation chances
late this afternoon. Regional NWS radar mosaic showing 20+ dbZ
echoes encroaching toward the WFO PAH CWA around 20z. Although
there is still some dry air advection going on near the surface,
an accelerated downward saturation of the layer north of the
warm frontal boundary southwest of the forecast area should
support at least isolated rain/sprinkles before the end of the
first period (today). The 12z deterministic 12km NAM-WRF/40km GFS
are about 40-60 nautical miles too far southwest with this
convection, while the explicit 3km HRRR is about 20-30 nautical
miles further northeast with the 1km reflectivity than observed by
radar. Ironically, the 09z/15z SREF appears to be a good
compromise and was utilized for the last minute updates.
As the MCV/ mesoscale closed low shears out as it moves northeast
overnight, low level ageostrophic forcing will bring moist flow
back into the area, while impressing a differential convergence
zone and inverted trough at the surface. These features will be
loosely in place when the larger player (the eastern Colorado
closed low) moves into western Kansas and dives into northeast
Oklahoma early Monday evening. The approach of this low will
sharpen lapse rates both at the surface and aloft, as well as
enhance moisture convergence, setting a warm front across the
southern third of the WFO PAH forecast area. SPC is hinting that
this differential zone may be the foci for scattered strong to
severe storms during the late afternoon and evening. This is
definitely a possibility.
Although there is some similarities with this closed low to the
one that moved north of the WFO PAH forecast area on Saturday,
this next low will be a little slower moving with wind fields more
unidirectional with height. However the compensating factor may be
a sharp gradient of moisture/lapse rates along the eastern limb of
the closed low. This may yield some strong/severe thunderstorms,
mainly in the eastern sections of the WFO PAH CWA (mainly
West Kentucky Pennyrile/Southwest IN). The overall concern will be
heavy rain potential on Tuesday. Fortunately, the greatest storm
total QPF (rainfall) will likely be centered over western sections
of Southeast Missouri, where lesser amounts of antecedent rainfall
have occurred the last five days. However, the potential for
flooding will must be concerned given the terrain of Southeast Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
In the extended portion of the forecast package, the ECMWF (and to
a degree) the GFS, follow the translation of the upper low
northeast of the area into the Great Lakes region by 12z Thursday.
Minor disturbances push in the northwest flow behind this upper
low until the ridge builds in at low and middle levels Friday
night. This will keep minor chances for showers and thunderstorms
in place at least through the daytime hours on Friday. It looks
like we may see at least one day break in the convection on
Saturday before a return to southwest flow occurs late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Kept the forecasts VFR for now, but this is a low-confidence forecast.
Most locations will see some light rain, as a disturbance moves
eastward across the region tonight, but it should have little
impact. There will be plenty of mid and high cloud around, but the
latest guidance is non-committal on low clouds through the
period. The best signal would be later Monday, but even that looks
to be aoa 3kft. Winds will be light from the northeast tonight,
but cloud cover should keep fog from forming.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
651 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Made some adjustments to PoPs over southeast Missouri through the
evening to reflect latest radar trends. The primary rainshield
will impact the western 4 counties for a few hours, but not sure
how far east it will make it. The 18Z GFS may be onto something
with this disturbance moving east across the southern half of the
area through the evening, and then drying out in its wake
overnight. It is likely overdone with QPF as it heads eastward
through the area, but the overall trend may not be that bad.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Some slight pre-issuance adjustments were made to parts of Ripley
and Butler County Missouri with respect to precipitation chances
late this afternoon. Regional NWS radar mosaic showing 20+ dbZ
echoes encroaching toward the WFO PAH CWA around 20z. Although
there is still some dry air advection going on near the surface,
an accelerated downward saturation of the layer north of the
warm frontal boundary southwest of the forecast area should
support at least isolated rain/sprinkles before the end of the
first period (today). The 12z deterministic 12km NAM-WRF/40km GFS
are about 40-60 nautical miles too far southwest with this
convection, while the explicit 3km HRRR is about 20-30 nautical
miles further northeast with the 1km reflectivity than observed by
radar. Ironically, the 09z/15z SREF appears to be a good
compromise and was utilized for the last minute updates.
As the MCV/ mesoscale closed low shears out as it moves northeast
overnight, low level ageostrophic forcing will bring moist flow
back into the area, while impressing a differential convergence
zone and inverted trough at the surface. These features will be
loosely in place when the larger player (the eastern Colorado
closed low) moves into western Kansas and dives into northeast
Oklahoma early Monday evening. The approach of this low will
sharpen lapse rates both at the surface and aloft, as well as
enhance moisture convergence, setting a warm front across the
southern third of the WFO PAH forecast area. SPC is hinting that
this differential zone may be the foci for scattered strong to
severe storms during the late afternoon and evening. This is
definitely a possibility.
Although there is some similarities with this closed low to the
one that moved north of the WFO PAH forecast area on Saturday,
this next low will be a little slower moving with wind fields more
unidirectional with height. However the compensating factor may be
a sharp gradient of moisture/lapse rates along the eastern limb of
the closed low. This may yield some strong/severe thunderstorms,
mainly in the eastern sections of the WFO PAH CWA (mainly
West Kentucky Pennyrile/Southwest IN). The overall concern will be
heavy rain potential on Tuesday. Fortunately, the greatest storm
total QPF (rainfall) will likely be centered over western sections
of Southeast Missouri, where lesser amounts of antecedent rainfall
have occurred the last five days. However, the potential for
flooding will must be concerned given the terrain of Southeast Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
In the extended portion of the forecast package, the ECMWF (and to
a degree) the GFS, follow the translation of the upper low
northeast of the area into the Great Lakes region by 12z Thursday.
Minor disturbances push in the northwest flow behind this upper
low until the ridge builds in at low and middle levels Friday
night. This will keep minor chances for showers and thunderstorms
in place at least through the daytime hours on Friday. It looks
like we may see at least one day break in the convection on
Saturday before a return to southwest flow occurs late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Kept the forecasts VFR for now, but this is a low-confidence forecast.
Most locations will see some light rain, as a disturbance moves
eastward across the region tonight, but it should have little
impact. There will be plenty of mid and high cloud around, but the
latest guidance is non-committal on low clouds through the
period. The best signal would be later Monday, but even that looks
to be aoa 3kft. Winds will be light from the northeast tonight,
but cloud cover should keep fog from forming.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
Tornadic supercell moving into extreme northwest Tennessee appears
to be on the leading edge of a persistent theta-e gradient per 20z
LAPS Surface fields. The long axis of this theta-e gradient
stretches west northwest into central Carter County. Anticipate
that any cells/supercells will likely continue along this axis
through the next couple of hours. The 13km RUC shows favorable
1000-500 mb lapse rates for wind damage potential and limited hail
potential through at least 23z.
A secondary zone of theta-e convergence in the Purchase area of
West Kentucky is coincident with the second circulation, so
bouyancy is not a problem. The RUC suggests that some more stable
850-500 lapse rates may become more stable with time. This may
limit upscale growth of organized updrafts further north the
current severe thunderstorm watch #252. The RUC suggests some
slightly sharper lapse rates for isolated wind potential from
21z- 00z along and east of the Ohio and Wabash Rivers into
Southwest Indiana and West Kentucky. However, this area should
diminish quickly with sunset, but the aforementioned area along
the Southeast Missouri/Northeast Arkansas area will remain under
the gun for a few hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 139 CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
We have been monitoring the evolution of a squall line that
originated in south central MO early this morning in association
with an MCV/sfc low. It is currently impacting parts of southeast MO
this afternoon and will be moving into the southern IL and western
KY soon and eventually into SWIN. We had a report of an inch of rain
in 15 minutes and winds gusting to 30 mph from a spotter near
POF...otherwise the convection has remained sub severe.
Latest LAPS data indicates a weak warm frontal boundary from near
St. Louis to middle TN. Instability has been increasing throughout
the day and has allowed convection to sustain itself. In fact, new
convection appears to be forming ahead of the line in parts of
southern IL. SPC has issued an MCD for our area for a potential
watch this afternoon, giving special attention to the convection
from West Plains MO to Ft. Smith AR. Damaging winds and hail,
along with very high rainfall rates will be the main threats. An
isolated short lived tornado is also possible.
We will continue with likely PoPs this evening, but then diminish
from west to east overnight as this system pulls out of the area.
We should see much lower chances of convection on Sunday in the
wake of the aforementioned system. Much of the area may be
convection free. Whatever lull Sunday, will be short lived, as the
GFS/ECMWF bring another mid level disturbance across the area
Sunday night. Best chances will be in the southern half of the area.
Then a more significant upper level low will dig into the plains
Monday and head toward the area late Monday into Monday night.
Therefore, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good bet
starting on Monday and lasting through Tuesday...as the system
approaches and then moves across our region. Heavy rainfall looks
to be a good possibility as precipitable waters are running
1.80-1.90 inches. Severe weather is possible, especially on
Tuesday when wind fields are expected to strengthen somewhat.
No real changes in temperatures expected over the next few days.
Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 139 CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
By 00Z Wednesday, the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are in good agreement that
a cut-off low will be centered over southern Missouri. The slow
progression of this low across the Mid Mississippi River Valley will
keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
Tuesday night into Wednesday. While an isolated strong storm cannot
be ruled out, the main impact during this time should be locally
heavy rain, with precipitable water values 1.50 to 1.75 inches.
As the low weakens and shifts northeast into the Great Lakes
Wednesday night, expect a temporary lull in the chance for showers
and thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday. However,
another ripple of energy in the weak zonal flow pattern is forecast
to move slowly across the region Thursday night into Friday night.
As a result, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
somewhat elevated during this time. A transition to mainly dry
weather should occur next weekend, though an isolated mainly
afternoon/evening thunderstorm certainly cannot be ruled out given
the warm and humid air mass in place across the forecast area.
Temperatures through the period will be seasonably warm. Expect lows
each morning in the mid to upper 60s. Afternoon highs will warm from
the lower 80s on Wednesday into the upper 80s by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1232 CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
Low pressure over Missouri will track north of the region through
tonight. The approach of this low and a weak attendant frontal
boundary will result in scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. A few severe storms are possible later this afternoon and
early this evening. Scattered to broken cumulus will occasionally
restrict ceilings to MVFR, particularly in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Winds will swing around to the west/southwest tonight
and then north/northwest Sunday morning as dry conditions return.
Will need to monitor the potential development of low clouds and
perhaps some fog late tonight and early Sunday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
104 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY OVERNIGHT. A
WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
AND CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF
ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CWA. HRRR INDICATED THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND
SUNRISE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST
SINCE THINGS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
ORGNL DISC: RAIN AND SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THIS HOUR
WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY, WE EXPECT
THE RAIN TO WIND DOWN AS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING BY THE OVERNIGHT
OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP AND THIS COMBINED
WITH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
FOR SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD
THE REGION. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON UNDER VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER. BOTH CAPE AND MOISTURE LOOK TO BE LIMITED SO CAPPED POPS AT
20 PERCENT AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY ENHANCED WORDING. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
NORTHERN AREAS WITH VALUES REACHING NEAR 80 OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST
LOCALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY FORM NEAR THE COAST BY MORNING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE PEAKS
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY, THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
VERY WARM WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 IN MOST AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. A VERY WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY
SPAWN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM
DAY. HOWEVER, A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN AREA WHERE
THE FRONT WILL BE BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN LATEST RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF...ALMOST
POLAR OPPOSITES. FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES RAN WITH SUPERBLEND THAT
CLOSELY MIRRORED GFS WITH STALLED FRONT ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES
EARLY TUESDAY BEING CLEARED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS BEFORE NEXT FRONT
MAKES APPEARANCE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO SHOWERS
AND OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING HOWEVER
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
VFR SATURDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS WILL INCLUDE ANY LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG, AND ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE COME UP DUE TO A GROUP SWELL AFFECTING THE
WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO THIS EVENING BUT BELOW
SCA LEVELS BEFORE COMING DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WARM AIR OVER THE COOLER WATERS MAY RESULT IN SOME
FOG ACROSS THE WATERS ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNINGS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RDGS OVER THE W AND ALONG THE E COAST. SFC HI
PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS UNDER A WEAK SHRTWV RDG ROTATING E THRU
THE TROF AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS /PWAT
ARND 0.35 INCH...ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ ARE BRINGING MOSUNNY
CONDITIONS TO THE CWA THIS AFTN. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LO 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK MODERATION. THERE ARE 2
SHRTWVS OF INTEREST UPSTREAM EMBEDDED IN THE UPR TROF. THE FIRST IS
MOVING E NEAR LK WINNIPEG...AND THE OTHER IS DIGGING SEWD THRU
SASKATCHEWAN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS ON MON ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE NOW IN
SASKATCHEWAN.
TNGT...SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG AND ACCOMPANYING DEEPER MSTR ARE
PROGGED TO MOVE E THRU ONTARIO N OF LK SUP TNGT...WITH LTL IMPACT ON
UPR MI. SFC HI PRES RDG IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE UPR LKS TO THE
S OF THIS PASSING SHRTWV. BUT SOME HI CLDS/A BIT HIER PWAT OVER 0.5
INCH NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE WLY
FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E...WHERE
THE DEEP DRIER AIR WL LINGER LONGER.
MON...SHRTWV NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO SWING ESEWD THRU
THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW LTL
RESPONSE IN THE MSLP FIELD OVE THE AREA...WITH SFC HI PRES RDG STILL
DOMINATING...THERE WL BE LTL IF ANY MSTR INFLOW FOR THIS DISTURBANCE
TO TAP. CONSIDERING THE ABSENCE OF MSTR INFLOW...WEAK DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC...MINIMAL HGT FALLS...AND MARGINAL MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...MOST OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS GENERATE LTL IF ANY PCPN
ACRS UPR MI...MAINLY ACRS THE WRN CWA WHERE FCST SDNGS SHOW MORE
MOISTENING AND KINX RISING TO 25 TO 30. FCST SNDGS FARTHER E SHOW A
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS PERSISTING THRU THE DAY WITH ONLY SOME
MID/HI CLDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE. GOING FCST SHOWING SCHC
POPS OVER THE WRN CWA APPEARS ON TRACK. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT
ARND 9C AND SOME CLDS...MAX TEMPS NOT FAR FM 70 SEEM RSNBL. WEAK
PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW LK BREEZES TO FORM AND LOWER TEMPS NEAR THE
LK SHORES. THE MOST PRONOUNCED LK COOLING WL COME OFF LK MI WITH LGT
SE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE HIEST TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
E...WHERE THE CLDS WL BE THINNER AND LLVL ESE FLOW WL LACK LAKE
MODERATION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND
SFC SFC RIDGE SIT OVER THE CWA. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP COME WED
INTO THU NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS GETS SHEARED APART AND MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER ON WED WHEN LOOKING AT CONSENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT AFTER WED MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARD TO THE
STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF THE TWO FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN
WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ON OR AROUND
THU/THU NIGHT THAN WITH THE SHEARED OFF LOW MOVING TO THE SE OF THE
CWA WED/WED NIGHT. CUT BACK SOME ON POPS ON WED. THINK THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT/THU COVERED THIS SCENARIO WELL...SO WILL NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO IT.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST OF FRI AND SAT WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. SUN WILL SEE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS MODEL INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH A SFC LOW MOVING N OF THE CWA WHILE DRAGGING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
A HIGH PRES RIDGE AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ALTHOUGH A DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE W MAY
BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA ON MON AND PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR SPRINKLES TO KIWD...THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY LOWER
CIGS/VIS RESTRICTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WL DOMINATE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER THRU FRI. BEST CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 20 KTS WILL
BE LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SHARPER GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
417 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CLOSED LO
OVER CENTRAL CANADA JUST W OF HUDSON BAY. UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT
H3 JET MAX OVER NW ONTARIO RIDING TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LO
IN CONCERT WITH BAND OF DEEP MSTR/H85-7 FGEN TO THE W OF SFC COLD
FNT STRETCHING ACRS THE WCENTRAL CWA IS CAUSING NMRS SHOWERS OVER
THE WRN CWA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC FNT. DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z GRB RAOB LIMITED THE SHRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT
THRU THE MRNG AND HAS CONTINUED TO DO SO OVER THE ERN CWA...BUT
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING THAT LIFTED TEMPS TOWARD 80 OVER THE
SCENTRAL AND ARRIVAL OF MOISTER AIR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB IN
THE SW LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT THAT LIFTED MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG
CAUSED CONVECTION TO INCRS EARLIER IN THE AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL ZNS
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FNT. MODEST DEEP LYR SHEAR/MID LVL LAPSE RATES
LIMITED THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
DROPPED SOME HVY RA. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS HAS
DIMINISHED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS...ANOTHER LARGER BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND SOME TS ARE LIFTING NEWD THRU NE WI TOWARD HIER
LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE SCENTRAL. THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FNT...THE NNW WIND OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS...AND THE
PCPN HAS DROPPED TEMPS AS LO AS ARND 50 OVER THE WRN CWA. FARTHER TO
THE W...DRIER AIR WITH PWAT UNDER 0.50 INCH IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS/NW MN. SKIES ARE CLR-PCLDY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU UNDER LLVL
THERMAL TROF IN THESE AREAS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TREND OF POPS TNGT AND THEN
FCST TEMPS/MIN RH ON SUN AS DRY HI PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
TNGT...AS THE UPR FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE W ON THE SRN FLANK OF
CLOSED LO TRACKING E INTO HUDSON BAY...DRIER AIR WL OVERSPREAD UPR
MI FM THE W. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET
ROTATING NEWD IN ONTARIO ARND THE CLOSED LO WL LIFT TO THE NE WITH
THE UPR JET CORE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD
CAUSE THE BANDS OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH/LINGERING TS TO END THRU THE
NGT AS THEY SPREAD TO THE E. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE W
CLOSER TO CORE OF INCOMING DRY AIRMASS/ PWAT CLOSE TO 0.33 INCH AND
TRAILING SFC HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/ LIGHTER WINDS. CONSIDERED
ADDING SOME FOG INTO THE FCST FOR THIS AREA WHERE SOME MDT RAIN FELL
TODAY AND IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING UNDER THE MID LVL
DRYING...BUT OPTED NOT TO CONSIDERING SOME FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DRYING
FCST IN THE H95-9 LYR UNDER STEADY H95-9 WIND TO THE E OF APRCHG HI
PRES CENTER THAT IS FCST TO REACH NEAR DULUTH BY 12Z SUN.
SUN...ANY LINGERING CLDS OVER THE SE CWA EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME DIURNAL CU AS HI PRES/
CORE OF DRIER AIR SHIFT OVHD. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO PEAK BTWN 8C
AND 9C...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RISE UP TO 75 OVER THE INTERIOR. LK
BREEZES WL PUSH INLAND OFF MAINLY LK SUP WITH NNW H925 FLOW TO THE S
OF SFC HI PRES BLDG OVER LK SUP IN THE AFTN...RESULTING IN COOLER WX
THERE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FCST N WIND APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG TO
ALLOW MUCH LK MI MODERATION. DEEP MIXING TO H75-8 WL RESULT IN SFC
DEWPTS FALLING INTO THE UPR 20S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTN...WITH
MIN RH BOTTOMING OUT TOWARD 20 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT IN THE AFTN WHERE THE RH WL BE LOWEST AWAY FM LK SUP
MODERATION OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...MITIGATING FIRE WX CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A 1020MB SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS W TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE DAY MON. MODELS SHOW DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE 550-450MB
LAYER...WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLY RESULTING FROM THIS
LAYER AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. HOWEVER...THE SFC HIGH WILL KEEP VERY
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE FROM MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THE ONE EXCEPTION
POINTED TO BY MODELS IS OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI (WHICH WILL BE ON THE
WRN SIDE THE SFC LOW BY MON MORNING) WHERE A THINK RIBBON OF HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN (1000-700MB RH AROUND 70 PERCENT)...THIS
AREA COULD SEE A GREATER AMOUNT OF PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD POPS AS HIGH AS 40 PERCENT CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. LOWERED THE POPS OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN UPPER MI DUE TO
THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND E.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUE...WITH A SFC RIDGE STAYING OVER THE CWA INTO WED.
THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUE.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WED THROUGH SAT...BUT MAINLY WED INTO FRI AS
MODELS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGING WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF BOTH SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE THE DETAILS OF THE PHASING OF THESE
SYSTEM AS WELL. THE GFS IS ON THE WETTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THE GEM AND
ECMWF SHOW LESS PHASING OF THE SYSTEM AND KEEP THE CWA DRIER THROUGH
THE TIME PERIOD. USED A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH RESULTED
IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU. WHILE STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO LOW LEVEL PATTERN DIFFERENCES...FRI AND SAT HAVE
LOWER PRECIP CHANCE THANKS TO INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FNT WL IMPACT IWD/CMX THIS
AFTN AND SAW THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG. INCLUDED MENTION OF TS EARLY
IN THE SAW TAF GIVEN PROXIMITY OF LK BREEZE BNDRY AHEAD OF THE FNT
AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING RA AND AN
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF MOISTENED LK SUP...WHERE SOME FOG IS PRESENT...MAY
BRING IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO ALL THE SITES EVEN AFTER THE PCPN
ENDS LATER TDAY INTO THIS EVNG BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO AREA IN
ADVANCE OF HI PRES BLDG E FM THE PLAINS. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TNGT WITH DIURNAL COOLING
UNDER MID LVL DRYING...BUT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL DEFINITELY
BRING VFR WX BY MID MRNG SUN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SO
WINDS THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS. FOG WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT ONCE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVES IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1147 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE CLOUD TOPS OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS. A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED
ACROSS WESTERN MN...WITH CELLULAR CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
FURTHER INVESTIGATION VIA THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE REVEALED THAT
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL
FGEN AROUND 850MB. THE LINE WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD...WHILE
THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVED NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE H850-300 MEAN
WIND VECTORS. MEANWHILE THE CELLULAR CONVECTION MATCHED UP WELL
WITH THE H850 TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND THESE CELLS HAD A
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY WHICH MATCHED THE 850-700MB WINDS. AFTER
COMPARING THE APPLETON MN HOURLY RAINFALL OBSERVATION OF 0.49IN TO
THE RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIP...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
RAINFALL RATES WILL APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST
CELLS.
THE HIRES MODELS...NAMELY THE HOPWRF AND HRRR CONTINUE THE TREND
OF SCATTERED CELLULAR ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND
OF PRECIP. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE 8AM-12PM
TIMEFRAME...WITH REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAP13 HAS THE LOW LEVEL FGEN EAST OF THE MN/WI
BORDER BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SPED UP THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION IN THE HOURLY POP GRIDS AND WARMED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SINCE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
HIGH PRES WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LASTING THRU SUN
NIGHT WHILE A PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THIS PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW THE HIGH PRES CENTER TO SHIFT OFF TO THE E AS
A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROF DROPS IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERY LATE
SUN NIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON MON. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZATION SINCE ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH
VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
HIGH PRES THEN RETURNS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...AND THIS
HIGH PRES WILL HELP KEEP THE SRN JET AND NRN JET SEPARATED...AND
HENCE KEEP DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEMS FROM SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. STILL...THE NRN SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A CDFNT THRU THE REGION WED INTO THU...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS FOR THE AREA. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT THE
AREA THU NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM ON ITS
HEELS FOR FRI BUT CONFLICTING MODEL SOLUTIONS FORCE POPS NO HIGHER
THAN SLGT CHC ON FRI.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK BUT
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
PERSISTENT SHRA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND END BY THE MID AFTN WITH
ONLY MVFR CIGS REMAINING. KRNH/KEAU WILL HOLD ONTO THE MVFR CIGS
THRU THE NEXT 3-6 HRS...WITH THE REST OF MPX CWA REMAINING VFR
WITH A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND ARND 10 KTS. SKIES SHOULD CLR THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS AFFECTING KRNH/KEAU. THIS MAY HELP
OUT WITH FOG FORMATION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLR. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG...WITH AREAS OF
DENSE FOG. HAVE INTRODUCE IFR VSBY AT BOTH KRNH/KEAU...BUT MAY
NEED TO ADJUST KRWF/KSTC. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE MVFR
CIGS CONTINUING EAST OF A KRNH/KMSP/KMKT LINE THRU 21Z. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS MODERATE FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE THIS SCENARIO.
KMSP...
MVFR CIGS AOB 1.5K WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY AFTN WITH
CIGS RISING ABV 1.7K TO 2.0K BY 19-20Z...WITH VFR CIGS AFT 21Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N-NNE ARND 8-12KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS.
SKIES SHOULD CLR THIS EVENING WHICH FOG/BR FORMATION ALMOST LIKELY
HAVE INTRODUCE 4-5SM BR AFT 9Z...BUT THIS MAY BE ADJUSTED BASED ON
CLEARING TREND...AND WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MORE E/ESE WIND AFT 18Z.
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SUNDAY AFTN...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR AFT THE TAF PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE AT 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS E AT 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE CLOUD TOPS OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS. A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED
ACROSS WESTERN MN...WITH CELLULAR CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
FURTHER INVESTIGATION VIA THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE REVEALED THAT
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL
FGEN AROUND 850MB. THE LINE WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD...WHILE
THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVED NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE H850-300 MEAN
WIND VECTORS. MEANWHILE THE CELLULAR CONVECTION MATCHED UP WELL
WITH THE H850 TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND THESE CELLS HAD A
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY WHICH MATCHED THE 850-700MB WINDS. AFTER
COMPARING THE APPLETON MN HOURLY RAINFALL OBSERVATION OF 0.49IN TO
THE RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIP...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
RAINFALL RATES WILL APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST
CELLS.
THE HIRES MODELS...NAMELY THE HOPWRF AND HRRR CONTINUE THE TREND
OF SCATTERED CELLULAR ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND
OF PRECIP. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE 8AM-12PM
TIMEFRAME...WITH REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAP13 HAS THE LOW LEVEL FGEN EAST OF THE MN/WI
BORDER BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SPED UP THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION IN THE HOURLY POP GRIDS AND WARMED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SINCE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
HIGH PRES WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LASTING THRU SUN
NIGHT WHILE A PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THIS PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW THE HIGH PRES CENTER TO SHIFT OFF TO THE E AS
A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROF DROPS IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERY LATE
SUN NIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON MON. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZATION SINCE ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH
VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
HIGH PRES THEN RETURNS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...AND THIS
HIGH PRES WILL HELP KEEP THE SRN JET AND NRN JET SEPARATED...AND
HENCE KEEP DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEMS FROM SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. STILL...THE NRN SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A CDFNT THRU THE REGION WED INTO THU...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS FOR THE AREA. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT THE
AREA THU NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM ON ITS
HEELS FOR FRI BUT CONFLICTING MODEL SOLUTIONS FORCE POPS NO HIGHER
THAN SLGT CHC ON FRI.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK BUT
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF MORE CONTINUOUS LINE OF PRECIP EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST MN UP THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE STORMS BEHAVE
SPORADICALLY...SO HAVE CONTINUED VCTS WITH TEMPO THUNDER SINCE THE
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT. FORECAST
MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE MVFR CLOUDS...SO THINK VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MVFR. FOG IS POSSIBLE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
KMSP...
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID
MORNING. ONCE THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES THE INSTABILITY AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. AT THIS TIME THINK SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY VFR SINCE THE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING THAT WAY. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS WELL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WIND NE AT 5G10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE AT 10G15 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS E AT 10G15KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
440 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE CLOUD TOPS OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS. A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED
ACROSS WESTERN MN...WITH CELLULAR CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
FURTHER INVESTIGATION VIA THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE REVEALED THAT
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL
FGEN AROUND 850MB. THE LINE WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD...WHILE
THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVED NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE H850-300 MEAN
WIND VECTORS. MEANWHILE THE CELLULAR CONVECTION MATCHED UP WELL
WITH THE H850 TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND THESE CELLS HAD A
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY WHICH MATCHED THE 850-700MB WINDS. AFTER
COMPARING THE APPLETON MN HOURLY RAINFALL OBSERVATION OF 0.49IN TO
THE RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIP...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
RAINFALL RATES WILL APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST
CELLS.
THE HIRES MODELS...NAMELY THE HOPWRF AND HRRR CONTINUE THE TREND
OF SCATTERED CELLULAR ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND
OF PRECIP. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE 8AM-12PM
TIMEFRAME...WITH REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAP13 HAS THE LOW LEVEL FGEN EAST OF THE MN/WI
BORDER BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SPED UP THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION IN THE HOURLY POP GRIDS AND WARMED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SINCE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
HIGH PRES WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LASTING THRU SUN
NIGHT WHILE A PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THIS PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW THE HIGH PRES CENTER TO SHIFT OFF TO THE E AS
A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROF DROPS IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERY LATE
SUN NIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON MON. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZATION SINCE ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH
VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
HIGH PRES THEN RETURNS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...AND THIS
HIGH PRES WILL HELP KEEP THE SRN JET AND NRN JET SEPARATED...AND
HENCE KEEP DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEMS FROM SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. STILL...THE NRN SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A CDFNT THRU THE REGION WED INTO THU...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS FOR THE AREA. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT THE
AREA THU NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM ON ITS
HEELS FOR FRI BUT CONFLICTING MODEL SOLUTIONS FORCE POPS NO HIGHER
THAN SLGT CHC ON FRI.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK BUT
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
A COLD FRONT MEANDERS FROM WESTERN WI THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN
LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHT BUT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REMAINS WITH A THREAT FOR THUNDER. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE
TWIN CITIES AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI IN THE 08Z-18Z. WITH THE
RANDOMNESS OF THE ACTIVITY PULLED BACK ON THE TEMPO THUNDER AND
INDICATED VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH ADJUSTED THE TIMING FOR THE MVFR WITH
THE ONSET A LITTLE BIT LATER NOW. THE ENDING TIME REMAINS ABOUT
THE SAME. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
DURING THE EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 6-12 KNOTS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE 00Z TAF WITH REGARDS
TO THE TEMPO THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND THE ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE THUNDER THREAT IS
SO USED VCTS INSTEAD OF A TEMPO GROUP. ALSO...THE ONSET OF MVFR
CEILINGS LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BIT LATER WITH THE START TIME PUSHED
UP SOME. DECREASING CLOUDINESS SATURDAY EVENING. NNE WIND 6 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5 KTS.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1058 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS UPDATED TO LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS AFTN`S
POPS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR N/NE AREAS.
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS DEPICT A PRONOUNCED S/WV AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS KS/MO WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATING
A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING BACK SW AND W INTO OK WITH WEAK
S/WV RIDGING OVER THE ARKLAMISS. THE S/WV TROUGH/OUTFLOW...ALONG
WITH DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN WITH CONTINUED PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT IN THE
NORTH AS A BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE REGION.
MODIFIED 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTN SUGGEST MICROBURST
POTENTIAL COULD BE ELEVATED CENTRAL AND NORTH WITH AMPLE SBCAPE
/3000-4000 J/KG/ VERTICAL TOTALS /28 C/ AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
/15-30 KT/. HOWEVER, WEAK S/WV RIDGING THROUGH EARLY AFTN SHOULD
SUPPRESS FAVORABLE BUOYANCY SOMEWHAT BUT INCREASED SFC CONVERGENCE
FROM RESIDUAL OUTFLOW IN NW/N AREAS AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FROM
TROUGH SKIRTING NORTH MS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEPER CONVECTION LATE
AFTN INTO EVENING. ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN NORTHERN AREAS IN VICINITY OF SINKING
BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. GRAPHICS/HWO ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
UPDATES AT THIS TIME. GOING FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS AFTN BASED ON SPC SSEO REFLECTIVITY
CONSENSUS IN N/E AREAS AND HOURLY ELEMENT UPDATES. /ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VIS AT AFFECTED TAF SITES. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING THOUGH MAY LINGER NORTH LATER TONIGHT. /28/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE MESOSCALE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAKING FOR A
DIFFICULT FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 20. DEWPOINTS TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE TO
THE SOUTH 70-75 WAS COMMON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ABOUT THIS BOUNDARY AROUND 16Z AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY
FLATTENING RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY ALONG THE QUASI-STALLED W-E
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM OK/N AR/TN. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE
CONVECTIVE BLOB ASSOCIATED WITH PRESENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE
KS/NE OK. WHILE THIS CONVECTIVE ENTITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...THE PASSING WAVE WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD
JOG INTO NORTH MS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS
IN THE CORRIDOR FOR NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT. SOME SEVERE RISK WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS CORRIDOR IN INCREASED 30-40 KNOT MID LEVEL FLOW AND
NEAR 40 KNOTS 0-6KM SHEAR.
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES LOOK TO DIG THEIR WAY EAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD AMPLIFY THE FLOW AND ALLOW
BOUNDARY TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH. BUT...SOME MCS POTENTIAL WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT SUNDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY CAN PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO
THE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING./26/
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BEST RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST AND THROUGH THE CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...LOOKS TO SLOWLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE SOME HEAD-WAY INTO THE
CWA...IT`LL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AGAIN
SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DESPITE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. I DID LOWER HIGHS
A BIT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. BUT BY WEEK`S
END...HIGHS SHOULD BE CLIMBING BACK UP TO NEAR 90. LOWS EACH NIGHT
WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS THEY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 93 72 92 71 / 26 28 17 38
MERIDIAN 93 70 92 70 / 34 33 21 33
VICKSBURG 92 71 90 69 / 22 27 18 36
HATTIESBURG 94 72 93 71 / 22 33 16 16
NATCHEZ 91 71 90 72 / 17 19 16 16
GREENVILLE 92 72 88 72 / 34 47 39 58
GREENWOOD 91 71 90 71 / 34 46 37 63
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/28/26/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
356 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE MESOSCALE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAKING FOR A
DIFFICULT FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 20. DEWPOINTS TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE TO
THE SOUTH 70-75 WAS COMMON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ABOUT THIS BOUNDARY AROUND 16Z AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY
FLATTENING RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY ALONG THE QUASI-STALLED W-E
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM OK/N AR/TN. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE
CONVECTIVE BLOB ASSOCIATED WITH PRESENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE
KS/NE OK. WHILE THIS CONVECTIVE ENTITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...THE PASSING WAVE WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD
JOG INTO NORTH MS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS
IN THE CORRIDOR FOR NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT. SOME SEVERE RISK WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS CORRIDOR IN INCREASED 30-40 KNOT MID LEVEL FLOW AND
NEAR 40 KNOTS 0-6KM SHEAR.
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES LOOK TO DIG THEIR WAY EAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD AMPLIFY THE FLOW AND ALLOW
BOUNDARY TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH. BUT...SOME MCS POTENTIAL WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT SUNDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY CAN PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO
THE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING./26/
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BEST RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST AND THROUGH THE CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...LOOKS TO SLOWLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE SOME HEAD-WAY INTO THE
CWA...IT`LL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AGAIN
SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DESPITE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. I DID LOWER HIGHS
A BIT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. BUT BY WEEK`S
END...HIGHS SHOULD BE CLIMBING BACK UP TO NEAR 90. LOWS EACH NIGHT
WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS THEY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VICINITY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS TO MVFR./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 93 72 92 71 / 27 28 17 38
MERIDIAN 93 70 92 70 / 26 33 21 33
VICKSBURG 92 71 90 69 / 23 27 18 36
HATTIESBURG 94 72 93 71 / 33 33 16 16
NATCHEZ 91 71 90 72 / 17 19 16 16
GREENVILLE 92 72 88 72 / 26 47 39 58
GREENWOOD 91 71 90 71 / 26 46 37 63
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Have updated the forecast to remove PoPs through midnight and only
keep slight chance PoPs going through 12Z. All of the latest guidance
from the HRRR to the coarse resolution GFS and ECMWF keep the area
dry through at least midnight and possibly thereafter until good
chances arrive tomorrow. Also trended cloud cover to match with the
latest visible satellite and blended that into the going forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Short term Tonight through Wednesday.
Main focus is on an approaching upper level trough currently over
the NRN and CNTRL Rockies. The trough is progged to rapidly deepen
as it moves out over the NRN/CNTRL Plains later tonight. The system
has already generated a line of thunderstorms across CO and NE and
these should increase in areal coverage and head east toward the
CWA. The models differ insofar as timing with the precip. The NAM
is faster due to it doesn`t deepen the trough as fast as the GFS and
EC. The GFS and EC quickly close an upper level parent low west of
the CWA thus slowly the troughs overall translational eastward
progresses. As a result the leading edge of the widespread precip is
much slower in working into the CWA...after 12Z tomorrow. There may
be a storm or two very late tonight across the CWA on the nose of
WAA and rapid moisture advection. The inherited pops were maintained
should the NAM verify but now have this evening dry Through midnight.
Nearly all the models agree on a southern shift to the QPF where now
it appears locations south of I-70 will receive the largest rainfall
amounts. The threat for SVR storms appears very low due to limited
instability. However, locally heavy rainfall may become a factor
for flash flooding and river flooding during the day on Monday. The
system hangs over the region through Tuesday before we start to see
dry conditions and clearing skies. Wednesday should be dry with
near normal temps ahead of the next system.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
The extended time period will be characterized by a continued
progressive flow with the chance for a few rounds of precipitation
and a return to near normal temperatures. In the wake of the upper
level closed low (which will alter the progressive pattern during
the short term) moving east into the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday,
the flow will again become progressive.
Wednesday night an upper level shortwave trough will move through
the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This will force an
associated cold front into the local area bringing another round of
showers and thunderstorms which will persist into Thursday. Thursday
night through Friday look to remain dry. Yet another shortwave
traversing the northern Plains will force another cold front into
the area Saturday/Saturday night and another round of thunderstorms
will be possible.
With the flow being quasi-zonal through most of this period,
temperatures will reside near normal. Thursday and Friday highs will
be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Saturday and Sunday highs will be
in the low to mid 80s which is normal this time of year as the
average high at MCI is 83/84 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Low MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to develop again later
tonight. The IFR ceilings should persist from around 09Z through mid
morning. However, like today, it`s possible they could linger longer
and possibly into the afternoon. Confidence in this is not especially
high so have trended to MVFR for late in the morning through the
remainder of the forecast. Convective chances seem likely to hold off
unto tomorrow afternoon based the latest model guidance. Winds should
be light throughout the forecast and generally from an easterly
direction.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...CDB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
230 PM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
CU FIELD POPPED UP TODAY BUT THE ONLY RADAR RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE COMING IN OUR OF CANADA. NO REPORTS OF ACTUAL RAIN HITTING THE
GROUND THOUGH. NAM, GFS, HRRR AND SREF SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE AND MILD DAY WITH A WEAK LEE SIDE TROF
DEEPENING OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE ND BORDER BUT AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND THE BETTER ENERGY IS
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF US.
ON MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL ALBERTA WORKS ITS WAY EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WE GET THE LEE TROF PASSAGE THAT REALLY KICKS THE
WINDS UP. AT THIS POINT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET
ON MONDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE NAM
IS WANTING TO PUT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SHOULD BE PRETTY
WARM COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS ON MONDAY WITH 850 MPH TEMPS
RISING FROM 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE WARM FRONT.
FRANSEN
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME
IS VERY GOOD. FELT IT WAS WARRANTED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE
DETAIL IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW
DISTINCT DISTURBANCES ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE BETTER SHAPE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER OUR NE ZONES...BUT THAT
MIGHT BE EVEN TOO GENEROUS.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FLOW ACROSS MONTANA. MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING PRECIP
FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EJECT NE THROUGH OUR CWA...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND THE DETAILS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. SEEMS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SEVERE COULD OCCUR AS AN
AXIS OF MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA PRE
THE GFS FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE THE COOL
PERIODS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT. A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE FEATURE
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL APPROACH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA PVA AS WELL AS
ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME IN THE
GRIDS. THAT SYSTEM WILL DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS AND SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS
MAY BE A DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS
DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A LONE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CAN PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED ASCENT.
IT MAY BE THAT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO HONE IN ON A DRY
PERIOD AND REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY FOR AT LEAST A SMALL PORTION OF
THE MIDWEEK.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ASHORE AND
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ESTABLISHED AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
TAKE AIM AT NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE 07/00Z ECMWF INTRODUCES A NICE
THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN PARTICULAR NEXT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THINGS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AROUND HERE AS SHORTWAVES
APPROACH THAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS DEPICTED BY PRESENT MODEL
GUIDANCE VERIFY. STAY TUNED. MALIAWCO
&&
.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO LOWER
PRESSURES AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...VFR.
IMPACTS...NONE. A FINE DAY FOR FLYING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY
TAF SITES. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1022 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK, SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT, AND TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED, WITH SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WELL TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAPPENED IN CENTRAL AND NRN STEUBEN
AND INTO YATES AND SCHUYLER. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES REPORTED AND
ROAD CLOSURES. OBVIOUSLY FFW ISSUED. THIS FINALLY MOVING ENE BUT
RAINFALL RATES AND CG STRIKES DECREASING. IN FFW AREA SCATTERED
MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS REST OF NIGHT. REST OF CWA NO ISSUES NOW AND
NONE EXPECTED. HRR STILL TRACKING WELL. UPDATED GRIDS SLIGHTLY.
7 PM UPDATE...
UPDATE TO SPEED UP SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. AHEAD OF EVEN THE FAST
HRRR MODEL. SHOULD BE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES INTO THE DRY STABLE AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA. MORE
UNSTABLE AIR OVER CENT PA AND WRN NY MOVING EAST INTO STEUBEN
ATTM. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST BUT TEMPS SHOULD DROP. WITH WEAK
WIND SPEEDS AND LOW TOPPED CONVECTION SEVERE WX SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT TONIGHT. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN. SO FAR
STRIPES OF INCH PER HOUR RAIN IN STEUBEN. WITH THE LACK OF RAIN IN
THE LAST 2 WEEKS THIS AMOUNT WILL NOT CAUSE PROBLEMS. THE SECOND
BATCH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR TRAINING IN THE FAR WEST.
245 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER, CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
NORTHEAST AND IS NOW INTO WESTERN NY AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN OHIO
THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS (THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT ARE RUNNING 25 TO 30 DEGREES RIGHT NOW), HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS WELL IN
LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
THAN THE ARW OR THE NMM. I LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER`S IDEA OF
SHOWING THE HIGHEST POPS STILL IN THE FINGER LAKES BUT I DID BUMP
UP POPS INTO THE 80%+ RANGE HERE GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 0Z IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY ALONG OR WEST OF I-81
AFFAIR. AFTER 0Z AS OUR COLUMN MOISTENS, RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST SLOWLY AND AT SOME POINT, MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
RAIN TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR THE MORE APPRECIABLE RAINS WILL BE IN
THE FINGER LAKES, WITH A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN AMOUNTS THE
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST YOU LIVE FROM THIS LOCATION. AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM LATE EVENING ON AS PWATS
CLIMB FROM UNDER AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES. WE CAN CERTAINLY HANDLE
THIS RAIN IN MOST CASES AS WE HAVE BEEN VERY DRY LATELY. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE CATSKILLS, BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. I LEFT IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER (ISOLATED)
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST PA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GENERAL WEAKNESS EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS CHANCES AROUND ESPECIALLY FOR NEPA
AND THE CATSKILLS, WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL NY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD IS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE, TO VARYING DEGREES, SHOW
THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. WHILE NO MAJOR TRIGGERS ARE
NEARBY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR
AROUND AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
US. THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMING LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE DAY AS A CUT OFF LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND
WE GET CLOSER TO SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STILL IT APPEARS THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN, BEYOND TONIGHT, MAY BE AT THE TAIL END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTS THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM. WV
CURRENTLY TRACKING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WL EVENTUALLY CLOSE
OFF OVR THE SRN PLAINS WITH SW FLOW OVER US. THIS WL SHOOT S/WVS
OVR THE CWA AT RANDOM LEADING TO MOSTLY HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITH THE MOST LKLY TIME FOR PCPN TO FALL DRG DIURNAL HTG.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE FRI NGT WITH BEST CHC FOR TSTMS EXPECTED
FRI AFTN.
SFC HIPRES LOOKS AS THO IT WL BUILD IN SAT MRNG WITH ANOTHER NICE
WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE ON TAP WITH 585 HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO AREA.
TEMPS DRG THE EXTNDD WL BE IN THE 70S AND NR 80F WHICH IS A FEW
DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR WV AND WEAK SFC LOW FIRING CONV OVER THE AREA THIS EVE. THIS
WILL BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO THE AREA...PERHAPS SOME
BRIEF IFR IN HEAVIER SHWRS. ISLTD TRW ALSO PSBL AS THE SYSTEM MVES
SLOWLY EWRD AND WEAKENS OVRNGT. WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERS INTO
MON...SO THE CHANCE OF SOME LGTR SHWRS WILL CONT...ESP DURING WEAK
HTG. SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL. WEAK SFC FLOW WILL GNRLY
KEEP WINDS LFGT AND VRBL THRU THE PD.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT-THU...VFR MOST OF THE TIME...BUT SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE FROM SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS.
THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
729 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK, SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT, AND TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED, WITH SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
UPDATE TO SPEED UP SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. AHEAD OF EVEN THE FAST
HRRR MODEL. SHOULD BE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES INTO THE DRY STABLE AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA. MORE
UNSTABLE AIR OVER CENT PA AND WRN NY MOVING EAST INTO STEUBEN
ATTM. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST BUT TEMPS SHOULD DROP. WITH WEAK
WIND SPEEDS AND LOW TOPPED CONVECTION SEVERE WX SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT TONIGHT. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN. SO FAR
STRIPES OF INCH PER HOUR RAIN IN STEUBEN. WITH THE LACK OF RAIN IN
THE LAST 2 WEEKS THIS AMOUNT WILL NOT CAUSE PROBLEMS. THE SECOND
BATCH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR TRAINING IN THE FAR WEST.
245 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER, CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
NORTHEAST AND IS NOW INTO WESTERN NY AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN OHIO
THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS (THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT ARE RUNNING 25 TO 30 DEGREES RIGHT NOW), HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS WELL IN
LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
THAN THE ARW OR THE NMM. I LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER`S IDEA OF
SHOWING THE HIGHEST POPS STILL IN THE FINGER LAKES BUT I DID BUMP
UP POPS INTO THE 80%+ RANGE HERE GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 0Z IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY ALONG OR WEST OF I-81
AFFAIR. AFTER 0Z AS OUR COLUMN MOISTENS, RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST SLOWLY AND AT SOME POINT, MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
RAIN TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR THE MORE APPRECIABLE RAINS WILL BE IN
THE FINGER LAKES, WITH A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN AMOUNTS THE
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST YOU LIVE FROM THIS LOCATION. AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM LATE EVENING ON AS PWATS
CLIMB FROM UNDER AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES. WE CAN CERTAINLY HANDLE
THIS RAIN IN MOST CASES AS WE HAVE BEEN VERY DRY LATELY. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE CATSKILLS, BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. I LEFT IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER (ISOLATED)
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST PA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GENERAL WEAKNESS EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS CHANCES AROUND ESPECIALLY FOR NEPA
AND THE CATSKILLS, WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL NY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD IS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE, TO VARYING DEGREES, SHOW
THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. WHILE NO MAJOR TRIGGERS ARE
NEARBY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR
AROUND AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
US. THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMING LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE DAY AS A CUT OFF LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND
WE GET CLOSER TO SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STILL IT APPEARS THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN, BEYOND TONIGHT, MAY BE AT THE TAIL END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTS THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM. WV
CURRENTLY TRACKING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WL EVENTUALLY CLOSE
OFF OVR THE SRN PLAINS WITH SW FLOW OVER US. THIS WL SHOOT S/WVS
OVR THE CWA AT RANDOM LEADING TO MOSTLY HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITH THE MOST LKLY TIME FOR PCPN TO FALL DRG DIURNAL HTG.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE FRI NGT WITH BEST CHC FOR TSTMS EXPECTED
FRI AFTN.
SFC HIPRES LOOKS AS THO IT WL BUILD IN SAT MRNG WITH ANOTHER NICE
WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE ON TAP WITH 585 HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO AREA.
TEMPS DRG THE EXTNDD WL BE IN THE 70S AND NR 80F WHICH IS A FEW
DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR WV AND WEAK SFC LOW FIRING CONV OVER THE AREA THIS EVE. THIS
WILL BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO THE AREA...PERHAPS SOME
BRIEF IFR IN HEAVIER SHWRS. ISLTD TRW ALSO PSBL AS THE SYSTEM MVES
SLOWLY EWRD AND WEAKENS OVRNGT. WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERS INTO
MON...SO THE CHANCE OF SOME LGTR SHWRS WILL CONT...ESP DURING WEAK
HTG. SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL. WEAK SFC FLOW WILL GNRLY
KEEP WINDS LFGT AND VRBL THRU THE PD.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT-THU...VFR MOST OF THE TIME...BUT SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE FROM SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS.
THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
712 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK, SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT, AND TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED, WITH SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
UPDATE TO SPEED UP SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. AHEAD OF EVEN THE FAST
HRRR MODEL. SHOULD BE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES INTO THE DRY STABLE AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA. MORE
UNSTABLE AIR OVER CENT PA AND WRN NY MOVING EAST INTO STEUBEN
ATTM. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST BUT TEMPS SHOULD DROP. WITH WEAK
WIND SPEEDS AND LOW TOPPED CONVECTION SEVERE WX SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT TONIGHT. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN. SO FAR
STRIPES OF INCH PER HOUR RAIN IN STEUBEN. WITH THE LACK OF RAIN IN
THE LAST 2 WEEKS THIS AMOUNT WILL NOT CAUSE PROBLEMS. THE SECOND
BATCH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR TRAINING IN THE FAR WEST.
245 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER, CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
NORTHEAST AND IS NOW INTO WESTERN NY AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN OHIO
THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS (THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT ARE RUNNING 25 TO 30 DEGREES RIGHT NOW), HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS WELL IN
LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
THAN THE ARW OR THE NMM. I LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER`S IDEA OF
SHOWING THE HIGHEST POPS STILL IN THE FINGER LAKES BUT I DID BUMP
UP POPS INTO THE 80%+ RANGE HERE GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 0Z IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY ALONG OR WEST OF I-81
AFFAIR. AFTER 0Z AS OUR COLUMN MOISTENS, RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST SLOWLY AND AT SOME POINT, MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
RAIN TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR THE MORE APPRECIABLE RAINS WILL BE IN
THE FINGER LAKES, WITH A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN AMOUNTS THE
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST YOU LIVE FROM THIS LOCATION. AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM LATE EVENING ON AS PWATS
CLIMB FROM UNDER AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES. WE CAN CERTAINLY HANDLE
THIS RAIN IN MOST CASES AS WE HAVE BEEN VERY DRY LATELY. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE CATSKILLS, BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. I LEFT IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER (ISOLATED)
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST PA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GENERAL WEAKNESS EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS CHANCES AROUND ESPECIALLY FOR NEPA
AND THE CATSKILLS, WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL NY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD IS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE, TO VARYING DEGREES, SHOW
THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. WHILE NO MAJOR TRIGGERS ARE
NEARBY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR
AROUND AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
US. THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMING LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE DAY AS A CUT OFF LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND
WE GET CLOSER TO SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STILL IT APPEARS THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN, BEYOND TONIGHT, MAY BE AT THE TAIL END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTS THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM. WV
CURRENTLY TRACKING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WL EVENTUALLY CLOSE
OFF OVR THE SRN PLAINS WITH SW FLOW OVER US. THIS WL SHOOT S/WVS
OVR THE CWA AT RANDOM LEADING TO MOSTLY HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITH THE MOST LKLY TIME FOR PCPN TO FALL DRG DIURNAL HTG.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE FRI NGT WITH BEST CHC FOR TSTMS EXPECTED
FRI AFTN.
SFC HIPRES LOOKS AS THO IT WL BUILD IN SAT MRNG WITH ANOTHER NICE
WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE ON TAP WITH 585 HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO AREA.
TEMPS DRG THE EXTNDD WL BE IN THE 70S AND NR 80F WHICH IS A FEW
DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AND EXPECT BROKEN
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD 00Z TONIGHT. LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED
INTO WESTERN PA AND NY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST BUT ERODING AS THEY DO. THUS HAVE JUST TEMPO`D IN MVFR
SHOWERS AT ELM BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z AND THEN BECOMING PREDOMINANT
AFTER 01Z. SEE SPECIFIC TAF FORECASTS FOR TIMING FOR EACH
TERMINAL. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY TSRA AS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS SHOWERS HEAD EAST. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO NARROW
DOWN TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSRA FOR THIS EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY AS WAVE WEAKENS. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS
THOUGH IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT NORTHERN
SITES OF RME AND SYR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z MONDAY.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ESE FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON AFTN-THU...VFR MOST OF THE TIME...BUT SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE FROM SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS.
THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS PIEDMONT
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT STILL JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT FRONT...NEAR WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWED BETTER 850MB CONVERGENCE AND CERTAINLY GREATER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. BASED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND CURRENTLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EVEN TOWARD
THE YADKIN RIVER MAY BE DIFFICULT. THE RAP IS BASICALLY DRY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LATE AT NIGHT TRYING TO
DEVELOP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. WHILE THIS
POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY NON-ZERO...IT SEEMS THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT JUST WEST OF THE YADKIN
RIVER WHERE THE GFS FORECASTS RIDGING OF 1.5 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING NORTH BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. HAVE
OPTED FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN SOME OF THE MORE TYPICAL COOLER AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DRIER AIR
AND FEWER CLOUDS RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD BE. IN TERMS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY TONIGHT...THEN AREAS OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE OF
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF
LOWER CLOUDS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST THE SOUTHERN END OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY. THE BEST JET
SUPPORT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD BE NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...
WITH AN INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING OVER 1.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...TO RESULT
IN SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ALSO SUGGEST THE LIFT AND
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TEND TO WEAKEN WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION...SUCH THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FROM U.S. 1 WEST. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS MOISTENING
THEN...BUT THOSE SAME SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDER. FARTHER WEST...LAPSE RATES ARE BETTER...BUT ONLY TO 6C/KM
OR SO...AND LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY A DEGREE OR THREE
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE AT OR BELOW 400J/KG OVERALL.
WITH THIS IN MIND...ALONG WITH ONLY MODEST 850MB WINDS...WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
HIGHS SATURDAY 80 TO 85 OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS IN GENERAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.
THE NAM AND THE GFS TEND TO DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AND WITH HPC SUGGESTING A BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS COMPARED
TO THE NAM FOR THE 12Z CYCLE HAVE LEANED MUCH MORE TOWARD THE GFS
FOR THE FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DRY THE MEAN AIR
MASS QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THIS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS ESSENTIALLY CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. EVEN THE NAM...WITH
ITS DIFFERENCES FROM THE GFS...SHOWS K INDICES FALLING GREATLY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AFTER
A LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE MID-LEVELS WARMING SUPPORTING A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR
IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
AND THEN...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALWAYS HESITATE TO REMOVE CHANCES SO MUCH...BUT THE
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM U.S. 1 ON WEST ARE SO DRY AND
CAPPED IT IS DIFFICULT NOT TO AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE POPS THERE ARE
VERY LOW AS WELL. AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S...
HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH A 90 POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SW-NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ALONG
WITH A MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
TRIGGER/SUSTAIN MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST-NE. EXPECT
BULK OF CONVECTION TO DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WITH A WARM MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MUGGY WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE 60S...AROUND 70 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A S/W RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MODEST INCREASE IN THE HEIGHTS ALOFT MAY
INITIALLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STRONG INSOLATION
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE AND SUSTAIN RANDOM CONVECTION
LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. WITH THE CORE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AVERAGE A SOLID 3-6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS NEAR 90-LOWER 90S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE INCREASING EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY THIS PERIOD. THE S/W RIDGE
MOVES EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP SLY FLOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS DEEP SLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT A MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS INTO CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITHIN
THIS FLOW WILL LIKELY BE A SERIES OF PERTURBATION LIFTING NWD. WHILE
TIMING OF THESE PERTURBATIONS THIS FAR OUT IS PURE FOLLY...IF A
PERTURBATION PASSAGE COINCIDES WITH MAX HEATING...THIS WOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT POP CHANCE TO NO HIGHER THAN
40 PERCENT. BUT AS TIMING ISSUES BECOME BETTER DEFINED...COULD SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AS SHEAR
APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUITE A BIT
OF LIGHTNING ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL START HOT WITH HIGHS PROJECTED NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S. INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT INSOLATION LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THOUGH IT WILL BE
COOLER...THE MUGGY AIR MASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MOST
INDIVIDUALS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN SOME
AREAS OF LOW MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IS LOW...WITH THE SREF KEEPING THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SUCH CONDITIONS WEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARD KRWI MAY RESULT IN LOCAL
REDUCED VISIBILITIES THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR THERE...BUT CURRENTLY WITHOUT A HIGH ENOUGH
CONDFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST AT THAT SITE. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SHOULD DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SUCH AT TAF SITES IS FROM THE TRIAD
EAST THROUGH KRDU. AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS SEEM MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...A SHOWER OR STORM COULD COME
CLOSE TO KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY...THEN CHANCES FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EXIST AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE RAIN OCCURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
202 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS PIEDMONT
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...AND ALONG THAT FRONT A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE OCCURRING JUST SOUTHWEST OF STANLY AND ANSON COUNTIES.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS FORMING IN A NARROW RIDGE OF VERY MODEST
INSTABILITY ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...WHERE THE RAP SHOWED
850MB LIFT AND ALSO WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASE
IN MOISTURE PARTLY NOTED BY THE INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS...SPREADING EAST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAD SPREAD
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS
ALSO MOVE EAST AS FORECAST BY THE RAP THIS MORNING...LIFT SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL...LEAVING A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE RAP FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON NOTES NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THOUGH WHERE
THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LATER IN THE DAY...TOWARD THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...AS A SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS IT
COULD DRIFT FOLLOWING THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS AND THERMAL WIND AND
POSSIBLY REACH AREAS NEAR THE YADKIN RIVER. WITH THE BETTER MUCAPE
AND MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST KM WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY
THINK PRECIPITATION...IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED.
WITH A WARM MORNING STARTS AND AS CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FOR
THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SANDHILLS COULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WILL WATCH THIS TREND. WINDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 10MPH AS BOTH THE 925MB AND 850MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 10KT FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 SUNDAY...
THE MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS OK/KS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...RETURN
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NC...ENHANCED BY MASS FIELD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PASSING MCS...WILL ALLOW A THETA E RIDGE AND MODEST INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS PW
CLIMBS BACK ABOVE 1.5". THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR
EAST CONVECTION WILL EXTEND WITH CAPE FORECAST TO DROP OFF QUICKLY
NEAR THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR. IF A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS IS
PRESENT...WHICH SOME MODELS HINT AT...THEN CONVECTION MAY HAVE AN
EASIER TIME BEING MAINTAINED INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS RANGE
ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING..WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
SATURDAY IS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM CONVECTION...83-88 NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A TOUCH MILDER IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
FOR MON/MON NIGHT: WITH THE ORIGINAL FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SW HAVING
LONG SINCE DISSIPATED... THE NEW FRONT WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY E-W
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/PA/NJ MONDAY WITH NC FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING
AN MCS THAT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY BEFORE CROSSING PA
EARLY MON MORNING... A FEATURE NOT SHOWN ON THE NAM. THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SUCH AN MCS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE... SO
WILL BASE MONDAY`S FORECAST ON SUCH AN OCCURRENCE... BUT WITH LOWER
THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE. EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM TO BE
SWEEPING OVER CENTRAL NC MON MORNING... FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND EAST OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. WITH MODEL QPF FIELDS ALL OVER THE
PLACE... IT`S DIFFICULT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ABOUT CONVECTION
COVERAGE... SINCE WE COULD END UP IN A SCENARIO WHERE POST-MCS
SUBSIDENCE OVERWHELMS ANY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND RESULTS IN VERY
FEW STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE MORNING... WITH
30% WEST / 40% EAST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL... MID-UPPER
80S. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HEADS EASTWARD MON
BUT SHOULD STAY IN AN UNPHASED STATE WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION
CROSSING THE CANADIAN/US BORDER WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSES
OFF OVER ERN NE/OK MON NIGHT. CONTINUE TO PREFER THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION OVER THE NAM WHICH REMAINS MORE PHASED AND PROGRESSIVE. THE
GFS/ECMWF TAKE A WEAK WAVE ACROSS NC/VA MON NIGHT... WHICH SHOULDN`T
PROVIDE A LOT OF FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT MAY WORK WITH THE ABOVE-
NORMAL PRECIP WATER AND LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY (NOTED ON GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS) TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT... BUT A BIT HIGHER
IN THE EAST WHERE PW VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHEST (1.5-1.8 INCHES) AND
WHERE CAPE ALOFT WILL BE GREATEST. HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A TAD TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FOR TUE-FRI: CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS REMAINS LOW HEADING INTO
MID-LATE WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN PLAINS TUE WEAKENS AND OPENS
UP BEFORE HEADING ENE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH FRI... WITH A WEAK ELONGATED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
PUSHING SLOWLY TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THU/FRI. THIS
WILL KEEP NC IN A REGIME FEATURING VERY WEAK STEERING AND HIGH
HEIGHTS ALOFT... WITH A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...
TUE/WED. WILL KEEP ONGOING TREND OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY... MEANING SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT/
MORNING AND CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST EAST) AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL GO
WITH HIGHER CHANCES SHOWERS/STORMS THU/FRI AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY
INCREASES WITH PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE WARMEST TEMPS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE TIMING OF MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER NC... TUE THROUGH WED... AND EXPECT HIGHS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 90. THEN WE SHOULD SEE THICKNESSES SLIP BACK TOWARD
NORMAL WITH THE ENCROACHING WEAK TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD
COVER... AND TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT WITH A TREND BACK DOWN CLOSER
TO NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN SOME
AREAS OF LOW MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IS LOW...WITH THE SREF KEEPING THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SUCH CONDITIONS WEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARD KRWI MAY RESULT IN LOCAL
REDUCED VISIBILITIES THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR THERE...BUT CURRENTLY WITHOUT A HIGH ENOUGH
CONDFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST AT THAT SITE. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SHOULD DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SUCH AT TAF SITES IS FROM THE TRIAD
EAST THROUGH KRDU. AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS SEEM MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...A SHOWER OR STORM COULD COME
CLOSE TO KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY...THEN CHANCES FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EXIST AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE RAIN OCCURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
930 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... BEFORE WASHING OUT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON... AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERTAKES THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...AND ALONG THAT FRONT A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE OCCURRING JUST SOUTHWEST OF STANLY AND ANSON COUNTIES.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS FORMING IN A NARROW RIDGE OF VERY MODEST
INSTABILITY ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...WHERE THE RAP SHOWED
850MB LIFT AND ALSO WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASE
IN MOISTURE PARTLY NOTED BY THE INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS...SPREADING EAST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAD SPREAD
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS
ALSO MOVE EAST AS FORECAST BY THE RAP THIS MORNING...LIFT SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL...LEAVING A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE RAP FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON NOTES NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THOUGH WHERE
THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LATER IN THE DAY...TOWARD THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...AS A SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS IT
COULD DRIFT FOLLOWING THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS AND THERMAL WIND AND
POSSIBLY REACH AREAS NEAR THE YADKIN RIVER. WITH THE BETTER MUCAPE
AND MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST KM WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY
THINK PRECIPITATION...IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED.
WITH A WARM MORNING STARTS AND AS CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FOR
THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SANDHILLS COULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WILL WATCH THIS TREND. WINDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 10MPH AS BOTH THE 925MB AND 850MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 10KT FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 SUNDAY...
THE MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS OK/KS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...RETURN
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NC...ENHANCED BY MASS FIELD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PASSING MCS...WILL ALLOW A THETA E RIDGE AND MODEST INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS PW
CLIMBS BACK ABOVE 1.5". THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR
EAST CONVECTION WILL EXTEND WITH CAPE FORECAST TO DROP OFF QUICKLY
NEAR THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR. IF A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS IS
PRESENT...WHICH SOME MODELS HINT AT...THEN CONVECTION MAY HAVE AN
EASIER TIME BEING MAINTAINED INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS RANGE
ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING..WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
SATURDAY IS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM CONVECTION...83-88 NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A TOUCH MILDER IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
FOR MON/MON NIGHT: WITH THE ORIGINAL FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SW HAVING
LONG SINCE DISSIPATED... THE NEW FRONT WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY E-W
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/PA/NJ MONDAY WITH NC FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING
AN MCS THAT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY BEFORE CROSSING PA
EARLY MON MORNING... A FEATURE NOT SHOWN ON THE NAM. THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SUCH AN MCS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE... SO
WILL BASE MONDAY`S FORECAST ON SUCH AN OCCURRENCE... BUT WITH LOWER
THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE. EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM TO BE
SWEEPING OVER CENTRAL NC MON MORNING... FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND EAST OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. WITH MODEL QPF FIELDS ALL OVER THE
PLACE... IT`S DIFFICULT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ABOUT CONVECTION
COVERAGE... SINCE WE COULD END UP IN A SCENARIO WHERE POST-MCS
SUBSIDENCE OVERWHELMS ANY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND RESULTS IN VERY
FEW STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE MORNING... WITH
30% WEST / 40% EAST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL... MID-UPPER
80S. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HEADS EASTWARD MON
BUT SHOULD STAY IN AN UNPHASED STATE WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION
CROSSING THE CANADIAN/US BORDER WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSES
OFF OVER ERN NE/OK MON NIGHT. CONTINUE TO PREFER THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION OVER THE NAM WHICH REMAINS MORE PHASED AND PROGRESSIVE. THE
GFS/ECMWF TAKE A WEAK WAVE ACROSS NC/VA MON NIGHT... WHICH SHOULDN`T
PROVIDE A LOT OF FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT MAY WORK WITH THE ABOVE-
NORMAL PRECIP WATER AND LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY (NOTED ON GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS) TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT... BUT A BIT HIGHER
IN THE EAST WHERE PW VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHEST (1.5-1.8 INCHES) AND
WHERE CAPE ALOFT WILL BE GREATEST. HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A TAD TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FOR TUE-FRI: CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS REMAINS LOW HEADING INTO
MID-LATE WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN PLAINS TUE WEAKENS AND OPENS
UP BEFORE HEADING ENE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH FRI... WITH A WEAK ELONGATED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
PUSHING SLOWLY TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THU/FRI. THIS
WILL KEEP NC IN A REGIME FEATURING VERY WEAK STEERING AND HIGH
HEIGHTS ALOFT... WITH A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...
TUE/WED. WILL KEEP ONGOING TREND OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY... MEANING SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT/
MORNING AND CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST EAST) AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL GO
WITH HIGHER CHANCES SHOWERS/STORMS THU/FRI AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY
INCREASES WITH PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE WARMEST TEMPS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE TIMING OF MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER NC... TUE THROUGH WED... AND EXPECT HIGHS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 90. THEN WE SHOULD SEE THICKNESSES SLIP BACK TOWARD
NORMAL WITH THE ENCROACHING WEAK TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD
COVER... AND TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT WITH A TREND BACK DOWN CLOSER
TO NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY IFR OR
MVFR CEILINGS THAT ARE IMPACTING TRIAD TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z AND THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS MAY DRIFT EAST TOWARD KGSO/KINT...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WEAK WINDS AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD CAUSE MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN BY AROUND 08Z. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS
POINT.
OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
INCREASE EACH DAY...STARTING ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF
STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...DJF/BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
954 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE. NO THUNDER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
AND LATEST RAP SHOWS RAPIDLY DECREASING MU-CAPE IN THIS AREA...SO
WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER HERE. STILL A FEW STRIKES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE MU CAPE REMAINING...SO WILL LEAVE A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER YET. UPDATE MAINLY DEALT WITH POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHERWISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND CARRINGTON AND
JAMESTOWN...SOUTHWEST THROUGH BISMARCK MANDAN TO NEAR HETTINGER
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
PARAMETER ALSO IS DIMINISHING. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR
DISSIPATE THE LINE AROUND 02Z/05Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONGER FORCING MAY KEEP THE SHOWERS
AROUND A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WITH LACKING INSTABILITY THE THUNDER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THE EARLY EVENING. UPDATED POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
AS OF 2015 UTC...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR SCHEFIELD AND RICHARDTON...THROUGH STANTON AND BOWDON
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. THE RAP/HRRR HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THEIR
LATEST ITERATIONS FOR POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO APPROACH BISMARCK BY 22-23 UTC AND
KJMS BY 23-00 UTC. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO BE MINDFUL OF THE
POSSIBILITY OF LAND SPOUTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY GIVEN LOW LCLS AND
ELEVATED NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER VALUES. HOWEVER...HAVE
NOT HAD ANY FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS THUS FAR. FOR LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FAR NORTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LOW IN COVERAGE
AND NON-SEVERE.FOR MONDAY...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED UNDER A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS OF 70 TO
80 WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
TUESDAY...WHERE WE WILL HAVE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP IT MAINLY DRY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO MINNESOTA
AND IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO GATHER IN
EASTERN PARTS OF WYOMING AND MONTANA. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS AS THE H85 LIFTS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
POSSIBLY A PASSING SHOWER YET AT KMOT AND KJMS OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. OTHERWISE CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE NIGHT AT
AERODROMES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND A
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT KISN AND KMOT TONIGHT...ALL AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KDIK AND KISN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1218 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD ISOLD SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN FA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
WEAK WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH MLCAPE 50-200 J/KG
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS (LIKELY NO THUNDER GIVEN THE
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY). INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES 0.01 INCH
QPF...AND THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ALSO PRODUCE
THESE ISOLD INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GFS/NAM/ECMWF MASS/THERMAL FIELDS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT AND WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS EXTEND ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BEMIDJI TO DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 HPA JET
STREAK. MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH...THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA NO LATER THAN 15 UTC. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE REST OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL INITIALLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...DO EXPECT SCT-BKN AFTERNOON
THERMAL CU GIVEN FORECAST HIGHS FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
TONIGHT. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS MORNING/S RAINS
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
FOG. ADDED MENTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN
FROM 09 TO 12 UTC SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM A
HANDFUL OF DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO
NORTHWEST MN OUT AHEAD OF A CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE AND SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF UN-CAPPED CAPE AND
0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EAST...MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A QUICK MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTING THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY ZONAL WITH
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING OF COURSE
IS EVERYTHING IN REGARDS TO POPS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS MEAN MORE DAYS WITH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAN WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. CONTINUED TO USE MODEL BLEND THRU THE PD. BEST BET
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
SCT/BKN VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS MAY AT TIMES GUST
TO AROUND 15 KTS OR A BIT ABOVE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD ISOLD SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN FA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
WEAK WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH MLCAPE 50-200 J/KG
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS (LIKELY NO THUNDER GIVEN THE
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY). INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES 0.01 INCH
QPF...AND THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ALSO PRODUCE
THESE ISOLD INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GFS/NAM/ECMWF MASS/THERMAL FIELDS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT AND WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS EXTEND ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BEMIDJI TO DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 HPA JET
STREAK. MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH...THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA NO LATER THAN 15 UTC. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE REST OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL INITIALLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...DO EXPECT SCT-BKN AFTERNOON
THERMAL CU GIVEN FORECAST HIGHS FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
TONIGHT. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS MORNING/S RAINS
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
FOG. ADDED MENTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN
FROM 09 TO 12 UTC SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM A
HANDFUL OF DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO
NORTHWEST MN OUT AHEAD OF A CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE AND SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF UN-CAPPED CAPE AND
0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EAST...MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A QUICK MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTING THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY ZONAL WITH
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING OF COURSE
IS EVERYTHING IN REGARDS TO POPS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS MEAN MORE DAYS WITH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAN WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. CONTINUED TO USE MODEL BLEND THRU THE PD. BEST BET
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH SOME
CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00 UTC SUNDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
941 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
BEEN A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING...ASIDE FROM A BAND OF NEARLY
TROPICAL LIKE RAIN THAT DEVELOPED POSSIBLY ALONG A MID LVL
DEFORMATION ZONE AS INDICATED IN THE 700MB FLOW BETWEEN TULSA AND
MUSKOGEE. THE RADAR UNDERESTIMATED THE PRECIP THAT FELL AT THE
PORTER MESONET BY AT LEAST A HALF INCH...WITH MORE THAN 2 INCHES
FALLING WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. THERE WAS NO LIGHTNING
EITHER...ANOTHER INDICATOR. THIS BAND HAS DISSIPATED...AND THINGS
WILL BE QUIET UNTIL WHAT IS LEFT FROM AN MCS OUT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS
ACTIVITY IN AFTER 10Z. THERE WILL BE A FLOOD THREAT OVER EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OK WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY LIMITED DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 63 74 61 76 / 20 80 50 40
FSM 67 76 65 77 / 30 80 40 40
MLC 65 77 61 78 / 60 90 30 20
BVO 61 73 59 76 / 20 80 50 50
FYV 61 71 59 71 / 40 80 50 50
BYV 61 71 61 72 / 50 80 90 40
MKO 64 74 60 75 / 30 80 30 30
MIO 62 71 60 71 / 30 80 70 50
F10 63 76 60 77 / 50 90 40 20
HHW 68 78 62 81 / 70 90 50 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ054-OKZ055-
OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1124 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOL AIRMASS
REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING.
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND THE NEWCASTLE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE POPS AND
TEMPS. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ALSO WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN
MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. AN
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SHRA OVER NERN WY/FAR WRN
SD. THIS WAVE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA THIS MRNG...WITH SHRA
MOSTLY ENDED BY 18Z...ALTHOUGH SOME SHRA MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM SERN MT
TO THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE TODAY...THUS
AFTN TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOUTHEAST FLOW THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT THIS MRNG...AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT DRIZZLE TODAY
(AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY).
FOR TNGT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE QUICKLY CROSSES THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROGGED
BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. COMBINED
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWEST OVER SWRN SD WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT. MLCAPE AND MUCAPE WILL BE QUITE LOW...AND THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES...AND THEN EXITS...THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP SUNDAY EVNG/NGT...FOLLOWED BY A
RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT...WITH FROST IN THE BLKHLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPS. FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES ZONAL FOR MID WEEK...AND
TRANSITIONS TO SW FOR THE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROF MOVES
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS
BACK INTO THE REGION NEARLY EVERY DAY. TEMPS MID/LATE WEEK SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NEAR AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AREA SLOWEST TO IMPROVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE AJACENT AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. ISOLATED
-SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE BLACK HILLS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...THE
BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. IFR
CIGS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN...WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
951 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOL AIRMASS
REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING.
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND THE NEWCASTLE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE POPS AND
TEMPS. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ALSO WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN
MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. AN
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SHRA OVER NERN WY/FAR WRN
SD. THIS WAVE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA THIS MRNG...WITH SHRA
MOSTLY ENDED BY 18Z...ALTHOUGH SOME SHRA MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM SERN MT
TO THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE TODAY...THUS
AFTN TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOUTHEAST FLOW THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT THIS MRNG...AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT DRIZZLE TODAY
(AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY).
FOR TNGT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE QUICKLY CROSSES THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROGGED
BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. COMBINED
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWEST OVER SWRN SD WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT. MLCAPE AND MUCAPE WILL BE QUITE LOW...AND THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES...AND THEN EXITS...THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP SUNDAY EVNG/NGT...FOLLOWED BY A
RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT...WITH FROST IN THE BLKHLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPS. FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES ZONAL FOR MID WEEK...AND
TRANSITIONS TO SW FOR THE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROF MOVES
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS
BACK INTO THE REGION NEARLY EVERY DAY. TEMPS MID/LATE WEEK SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NEAR AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WDSPRD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND THE BLKHLS
AREA...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MRNG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
515 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE POPS AND
TEMPS. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ALSO WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN
MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. AN
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SHRA OVER NERN WY/FAR WRN
SD. THIS WAVE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA THIS MRNG...WITH SHRA
MOSTLY ENDED BY 18Z...ALTHOUGH SOME SHRA MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM SERN MT
TO THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE TODAY...THUS
AFTN TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOUTHEAST FLOW THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT THIS MRNG...AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT DRIZZLE TODAY
(AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY).
FOR TNGT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE QUICKLY CROSSES THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROGGED
BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. COMBINED
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWEST OVER SWRN SD WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT. MLCAPE AND MUCAPE WILL BE QUITE LOW...AND THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES...AND THEN EXITS...THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP SUNDAY EVNG/NGT...FOLLOWED BY A
RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT...WITH FROST IN THE BLKHLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPS. FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES ZONAL FOR MID WEEK...AND
TRANSITIONS TO SW FOR THE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROF MOVES
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS
BACK INTO THE REGION NEARLY EVERY DAY. TEMPS MID/LATE WEEK SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NEAR AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WDSPRD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND THE BLKHLS
AREA...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MRNG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
453 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE THIS MORNING. ONE
NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA....AND ANOTHER NEAR THE ELEVATED FRONT FROM MITCHELL TO
BROOKINGS. DID HAVE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME OF
THIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES FELL WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DOES LOOK LIKE THE INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH...WHICH IS GOOD SINCE AMOUNTS ARE APPROACHING FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...BUT AT THIS POINT
THINK ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MINOR STREET FLOODING...AND
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THAT. OTHERWISE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. JUST
ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED.
THE THREAT WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY OUR FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS KEEPING A RAIN THREAT INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY...AND DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS
CLEAR. QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS OUT THERE THIS MORNING...SO WILL
LIKELY TAKE AWHILE FOR CLEARING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HALF BY LATER
IN THE DAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. ONLY LOOKING
AT HIGHS IN THE 60S. OF COURSE IF WE ARE ABLE TO BREAK OUT MORE THAN
EXPECTED WE WOULD GET A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT FOR NOW THINKING
THIS IS A LOWER PROBABILITY SOLUTION. SKIES DUE CLEAR FOR MOST OF US
TONIGHT. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS...WE
SHOULD EB ABEL TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD SUNDAY
MORNING WITH PRETTY STRONG FORCING WORKING INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE JAMES VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. INITIAL DRY LOW LEVELS WILL SLOW
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CENTRAL UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON BUT BY LATE EVENING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD IN OUR WESTERN HALF. THIS FEATURE SLIPS EAST SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE EXITS
THE AREA. A COOL AND RELATIVELY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO HAVE MENTIONED ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND A COOL AIRMASS WILL CAP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...COOLEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S. WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW RESUMES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MUCH OF TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMALS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
MOVING INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PATTERN GENERALLY REMAINS
ACTIVE WITH A PAIR OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS SHOWING SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES. FIRST WAVE HAS
BEEN SLOWED TO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY TIME FRAME...CLIPPING
MAINLY OUR NORTHERN HALF. SECOND WAVE FOLLOWS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH SYSTEMS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THINK THE HRRR IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
PLACEMENT...AND IN GENERAL WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH NEAR
HIGHWAY 60 ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE GREATEST SHOWER COVERAGE
AND REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY DOWN THERE. STRATUS MAY DEVELOP WITH
MIXING TOMORROW MORNING...AND IF IT DOES SO IT WILL BE STUBBORN TO
LEAVE. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
216 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE POPS AND
TEMPS. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ALSO WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN
MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. AN
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SHRA OVER NERN WY/FAR WRN
SD. THIS WAVE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA THIS MRNG...WITH SHRA
MOSTLY ENDED BY 18Z...ALTHOUGH SOME SHRA MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM SERN MT
TO THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE TODAY...THUS
AFTN TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOUTHEAST FLOW THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT THIS MRNG...AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT DRIZZLE TODAY
(AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY).
FOR TNGT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE QUICKLY CROSSES THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROGGED
BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. COMBINED
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWEST OVER SWRN SD WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT. MLCAPE AND MUCAPE WILL BE QUITE LOW...AND THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES...AND THEN EXITS...THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP SUNDAY EVNG/NGT...FOLLOWED BY A
RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT...WITH FROST IN THE BLKHLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPS. FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES ZONAL FOR MID WEEK...AND
TRANSITIONS TO SW FOR THE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROF MOVES
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS
BACK INTO THE REGION NEARLY EVERY DAY. TEMPS MID/LATE WEEK SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NEAR AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LCL LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WEAK NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING
THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG A CROSSVILLE TO KNOXVILLE TO
ANDREWS NC LINE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP OVER THE OZARKS REGION AHEAD OF ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONGEAL INTO AN MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS MCS SHOULD
WEAKEN TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER
EAST TN. THUS...WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT... BUT WILL ONLY MENTION SCATTERED CONVECTION
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY STABILIZING THE LOCAL AIR MASS...WILL LOWER
POPS FOR SUNDAY INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MARGINALLY
TO POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST TN AND
SOUTHWEST NC WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP. ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AREA WIDE. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO WHERE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE
NOTED.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WILL STAY IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 88 67 88 / 60 50 30 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 86 66 86 / 50 50 30 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 86 66 86 / 60 50 30 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 83 61 83 / 50 50 40 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DMG/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOPING WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
JUST AHEAD OF A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS SHOWING UP AT
700 MBARS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
ALSO NOTED A WEAK COLD POCKET AROUND 700 MBARS ALONG TENNESSEE
RIVER INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THAT`S BEEN WORKING SLOWLY
EASTWARD WITH SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION...WEAK SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM DOVER SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CHATTANOOGA. BASED ON
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EASTWARD WHILE THE OVERALL AREA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NEXT 3-4 HOURS.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO BRING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNGHT
MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1002 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO OUR WEST
NEAR COLEMAN TEXAS AND A SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. HI RES MODELS THIS EVENING ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
00Z KFWD SOUNDING SHOWS THE REGION WEAKLY CAPPED AND EXPECT THE
CAP TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH COLORADO AND WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PLAINS/WESTERN
KANSAS BY DAYBREAK. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL START TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS WEAK TROUGHING MOVES INTO NORTH
TEXAS...WHICH WILL AID IN SCATTERED ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIE.
THE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AMARILLO WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN OUR CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. WE DO
NOT EXPECT THIS LINE TO BE SEVERE WHEN IT ARRIVES BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTH TEXAS. THE LINE WILL MARCH ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH MORE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION...HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE MCS
OVERNIGHT AND THE SPEED OF A FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE MCS.
FOR THE UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND POPS
TONIGHT BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT. DID INCREASE POPS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING BACK TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER SPEED AND ARRIVAL
OF THE MCS.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 702 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TIMING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE 3 POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THIS FORECAST.
THE FIRST ROUND IS ONGOING...AND CONSISTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO TO TYLER. IN NORTH TEXAS THIS BOUNDARY
WAS CLOSER TO WACO THAN IT WAS TO THE DFW AREA AIRPORTS. THINK
THAT MOST OF THESE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE DFW
AREA...AND ALSO THINK THEY ARE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...MEANING THAT THEY SHOULD WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE AN HOUR OR
TWO AFTER SUNSET. WENT AHEAD WITH VCTS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
KACT TAF AND WENT WITH ONLY VCSH AROUND THE DFW AREA AS A RESULT.
THE SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS
CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE 21Z RAP INDICATED THAT
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE QLCS ORGANIZING OVER EASTERN CO AND
NEW MEXICO MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR AFTER/AROUND 3 AM. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS IS PRIMARILY 3 AM TO 7 AM...SO
WENT AHEAD WITH VCTS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME. IF ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE VERY STRONG
ANYMORE...SO THE PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THE THIRD ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND JUST OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING
TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE MODELS ARE GENERALLY ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT (MAINLY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS) THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS AROUND THE DFW AREA WILL
BE FROM LATE TOMORROW MORNING TO EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WACO`S
BEST CHANCES WILL BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THIS THIRD
ROUND.
THESE STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND POSE A SLIGHTLY
GREATER HAIL AND WIND THREAT AS THIS LAST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
HAVE THE SUPPORT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS TOMORROW. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD COVER. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TEND TO KEEP STORMS ELEVATED...REDUCING THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT OVERALL. THIS PROBABLY REPRESENTS OUR BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
THIRD ROUND OF ACTIVITY PRODUCING STORMS THAT IMPACTS ALL AREA
AIRPORTS IS HIGH...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS WHAT IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO WHICH HAS KICKED OFF SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS IN RECOVERY MODE
AFTER THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEX DISSIPATED OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ONLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND THE RICH GULF MOISTURE HAS BEEN
DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AIRCRAFT DATA
SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A BUBBLE OF DRY AND WARM AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE HEART OF REGION...BUT
THE SURFACE WIND PATTERN IS MUDDLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THIS
FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. IT LIKELY LIES ALONG
A LINE FROM HOBBS NM TO ABILENE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT MAY RETREAT
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING CONTINUES MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD
BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS.
THUS WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE PRIMARY FORCING ARRIVES.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OF MUCH USE TODAY...AS IT DID NOT HANDLE
THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION WELL...WHICH MEANS IT DOES NOT REALIZE
HOW STABLE THE AIR IS OVER THE REGION OR WHERE THE SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. MOST SYNOPTIC MODELS BELIEVE IT SHOULD
BE RAINING HERE RIGHT NOW...AND THAT IS JUST NOT THE CASE. THE
HRRR IS PERFORMING THE BEST AND ITS FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE.
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHT/S A MCS HAS ORGANIZED OUT OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE MCS/S HAVE MOVED EASTWARD AND
AFFECTED THE REGION...AND TONIGHT THE STORM TRACK DOES FAVOR A MCS
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE PANHANDLE TO AFFECT OUR REGION. THE ISSUE IS
THAT A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS KEPT TEMPS 10-20
DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE MUCH STRONGER TONIGHT...SO A MCS SHOULD ORGANIZE
THERE BY LATE EVENING. THIS MCS WILL HAVE LESS INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH AND THUS BELIEVE IT MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MOVE SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS HAVE. THIS MEANS THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT ARRIVE
INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY TO MID MORNING MONDAY. EVEN IF THE
AIRMASS IS TOO STABLE FOR A MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND NW TEXAS TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTAIN
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WHEN THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES. POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT TONIGHT DUE TO CONCERNS THAT THIS
MCS MAY NOT DEVELOP ALTOGETHER...OR MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 7
AM MONDAY. HOWEVER POPS FOR MONDAY WERE INCREASED OVER THE AREA
AS FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EITHER
WITH THE MORNING MCS OR WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE AT A REASONABLE RATE TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM BEING EXCESSIVE. IN ADDITION...SEE NONE OF THE CLASSIC SIGNS
IN THE SYNOPTIC DATA FOR A SLOW MOVING...BACK-BUILDING MCS...OR
ECHO TRAINING. RAINFALL TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL AVERAGE A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION THE
HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN
2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST MONTH...AND THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS NEEDED. THE SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT LOOKS LOW TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BUT MAY INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH SOME DAY TIME HEATING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE 60S FOR LOWS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL
WARM GRADUALLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. IN ADDITION A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN LOW WITH THIS POTENTIAL...THUS WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND
PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE WITH THE FRONT AND LOWER HEIGHT
FIELDS...BUT SHOULD STILL STAY NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 85 67 86 67 / 60 70 20 5 5
WACO, TX 73 87 66 89 65 / 50 60 30 5 5
PARIS, TX 70 80 64 81 63 / 50 70 40 10 5
DENTON, TX 70 84 64 85 62 / 70 70 20 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 70 83 64 84 63 / 60 70 20 5 5
DALLAS, TX 72 85 68 86 68 / 60 70 20 5 5
TERRELL, TX 73 84 68 87 65 / 50 70 30 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 72 85 68 87 66 / 40 60 40 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 73 87 66 88 65 / 40 60 30 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 68 85 62 88 63 / 70 60 20 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
69/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
702 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TIMING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE 3 POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THIS FORECAST.
THE FIRST ROUND IS ONGOING...AND CONSISTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO TO TYLER. IN NORTH TEXAS THIS BOUNDARY
WAS CLOSER TO WACO THAN IT WAS TO THE DFW AREA AIRPORTS. THINK
THAT MOST OF THESE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE DFW
AREA...AND ALSO THINK THEY ARE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...MEANING THAT THEY SHOULD WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE AN HOUR OR
TWO AFTER SUNSET. WENT AHEAD WITH VCTS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
KACT TAF AND WENT WITH ONLY VCSH AROUND THE DFW AREA AS A RESULT.
THE SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS
CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE 21Z RAP INDICATED THAT
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE QLCS ORGANIZING OVER EASTERN CO AND
NEW MEXICO MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR AFTER/AROUND 3 AM. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS IS PRIMARILY 3 AM TO 7 AM...SO
WENT AHEAD WITH VCTS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME. IF ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE VERY STRONG
ANYMORE...SO THE PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THE THIRD ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND JUST OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING
TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE MODELS ARE GENERALLY ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT (MAINLY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS) THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS AROUND THE DFW AREA WILL
BE FROM LATE TOMORROW MORNING TO EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WACO`S
BEST CHANCES WILL BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THIS THIRD
ROUND.
THESE STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND POSE A SLIGHTLY
GREATER HAIL AND WIND THREAT AS THIS LAST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
HAVE THE SUPPORT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS TOMORROW. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD COVER. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TEND TO KEEP STORMS ELEVATED...REDUCING THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT OVERALL. THIS PROBABLY REPRESENTS OUR BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
THIRD ROUND OF ACTIVITY PRODUCING STORMS THAT IMPACTS ALL AREA
AIRPORTS IS HIGH...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS WHAT IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO WHICH HAS KICKED OFF SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS IN RECOVERY MODE
AFTER THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEX DISSIPATED OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ONLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND THE RICH GULF MOISTURE HAS BEEN
DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AIRCRAFT DATA
SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A BUBBLE OF DRY AND WARM AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE HEART OF REGION...BUT
THE SURFACE WIND PATTERN IS MUDDLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THIS
FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. IT LIKELY LIES ALONG
A LINE FROM HOBBS NM TO ABILENE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT MAY RETREAT
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING CONTINUES MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD
BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS.
THUS WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE PRIMARY FORCING ARRIVES.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OF MUCH USE TODAY...AS IT DID NOT HANDLE
THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION WELL...WHICH MEANS IT DOES NOT REALIZE
HOW STABLE THE AIR IS OVER THE REGION OR WHERE THE SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. MOST SYNOPTIC MODELS BELIEVE IT SHOULD
BE RAINING HERE RIGHT NOW...AND THAT IS JUST NOT THE CASE. THE
HRRR IS PERFORMING THE BEST AND ITS FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE.
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHT/S A MCS HAS ORGANIZED OUT OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE MCS/S HAVE MOVED EASTWARD AND
AFFECTED THE REGION...AND TONIGHT THE STORM TRACK DOES FAVOR A MCS
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE PANHANDLE TO AFFECT OUR REGION. THE ISSUE IS
THAT A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS KEPT TEMPS 10-20
DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE MUCH STRONGER TONIGHT...SO A MCS SHOULD ORGANIZE
THERE BY LATE EVENING. THIS MCS WILL HAVE LESS INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH AND THUS BELIEVE IT MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MOVE SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS HAVE. THIS MEANS THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT ARRIVE
INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY TO MID MORNING MONDAY. EVEN IF THE
AIRMASS IS TOO STABLE FOR A MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND NW TEXAS TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTAIN
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WHEN THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES. POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT TONIGHT DUE TO CONCERNS THAT THIS
MCS MAY NOT DEVELOP ALTOGETHER...OR MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 7
AM MONDAY. HOWEVER POPS FOR MONDAY WERE INCREASED OVER THE AREA
AS FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EITHER
WITH THE MORNING MCS OR WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE AT A REASONABLE RATE TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM BEING EXCESSIVE. IN ADDITION...SEE NONE OF THE CLASSIC SIGNS
IN THE SYNOPTIC DATA FOR A SLOW MOVING...BACK-BUILDING MCS...OR
ECHO TRAINING. RAINFALL TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL AVERAGE A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION THE
HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN
2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST MONTH...AND THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS NEEDED. THE SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT LOOKS LOW TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BUT MAY INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH SOME DAY TIME HEATING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE 60S FOR LOWS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL
WARM GRADUALLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. IN ADDITION A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN LOW WITH THIS POTENTIAL...THUS WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND
PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE WITH THE FRONT AND LOWER HEIGHT
FIELDS...BUT SHOULD STILL STAY NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 85 67 86 67 / 60 60 20 5 5
WACO, TX 73 87 66 89 65 / 50 60 30 5 5
PARIS, TX 70 80 64 81 63 / 50 70 40 10 5
DENTON, TX 70 84 64 85 62 / 70 60 20 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 70 83 64 84 63 / 60 70 20 5 5
DALLAS, TX 72 85 68 86 68 / 60 60 20 5 5
TERRELL, TX 73 84 68 87 65 / 50 60 30 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 72 85 68 87 66 / 40 60 40 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 73 87 66 88 65 / 40 60 30 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 69 85 62 88 63 / 70 50 20 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...
.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAIN FOCUS IS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE IA INTO CNTRL WI WITH LITTLE
DESTABILIZATION FURTHER EAST DUE TO DENSE CIRRUS CANOPY. HRRR AND
4KM SPC WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS WITH SLOW
PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL INDUCED CONVECTION INTO SC WI THROUGH THE
EVENING. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN CONVECTION WITH LITTLE PUSH INTO THE
ERN CWA WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MORE STABLE AIRMASS. PLUS THE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION WITH MORE OF A NEWD CELLULAR
MOVEMENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MUCH OF THE ERN CWA ENDING UP WITH
A DRY LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE AND POSSIBLY LONGER. HOWEVER STRONG
SHORTWAVE ACRS NRN MO WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH 6Z WITH AN
EXTENSION OF THIS VORT TO THE NORTH POSSIBLY HELPING WITH ADDING
SOME LIFT IN ADDITION TO THE COLD FRONT MOVG SEWD. BOTH MODELS
HINT AT THIS WITH 4KM WRF SHOWING A CLOSE CALL THOUGH KEEPING IT
JUST EAST AND SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GENERAL SPIRIT OF GOING
FORECAST INTACT WITH HIGHER POPS IN WRN AND CNTRL CWA INTO THIS
EVENING WITH LOWER POPS TOWARDS THE LAKE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE DEF ZONE SHIELD OF PCPN WITH
STRONGER MO/WC IL VORT MAX.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WITH ANY VORT ACTION TO OUR NORTH.
MAIN STORY WILL BE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH MORNING
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
AND THE NAM MOS ALL SUGGEST SOME STRATUS FOR A TIME. 925 TEMPS
DROP OFF INTO THE 10-13C RANGE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
WITH SOME MODIFICATION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
MONDAY. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND MID LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES WESTERN MISSOURI MONDAY. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. AS A RESULT THE
250 MB DIVERGENCE INCREASES MONDAY AFTERNOON. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
IS WEAK...WITH THE STRONGER UPWARD MOTION JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD EVENING.
THE NAM SATURATES THE 700 MB LAYER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. 850
MB RH IS RATHER LOW BUT DOES INCREASE FAR WEST AND FAR SOUTH
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO 0 TO 1 KM CAPE. THE NAM
DOES BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SOUTHWEST OF MADISON DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE DRY AND IS
PREFERRED.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI AND REACHES SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS TUESDAY. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS STILL IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET AND EXIT REGION OF THE WEAKER
JET MAX EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. GENERALLY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850/700 MB RH SATURATES OVER
ALL BUT AREAS NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE DELLS MONDAY NIGHT...AND
REMAINS RATHER HIGH INTO TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION REMAINS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST
GETTING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 06Z DGEX IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH QUICKER AND
FARTHER NORTH. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER
MODELS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A COOL EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS RESULTS IN NO
ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE.
.LONG TERM...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO OPEN AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH IS KICKED EAST
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE REACHES MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS AREAS
NORTHWEST OF MADISON DRY. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES WISCONSIN
THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
FRONT...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRY.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MOSTLY A VFR PERIOD BUT WL NEED TO WATCH CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO
THIS EVENING. MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN ERN WI SO ERN TAF SITES
LIKELY NOT AFFECTED BY MUCH. PERHAPS A GLANCING SHOT OF PRECIP
FROM NRN FRINGE OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOC WITH MO/IL SHORTWAVE. MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT MAY ALSO
ALLOW CIGS TO REACH MVFR LEVELS. NAM MOS AND BUFKIT ALONG WITH
LLVL RH PROGS SUGGEST THIS. WILL BANK ON THIS MIXING OUT WITH TIME
WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND MODIFICATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW BEARS WATCHING THOUGH AT THE MOMENT THE GUSTS
AND EXPECTED WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TOO BORDERLINE TO GO WITH AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...RIDGING
OVER WI AND MI...AND A CONVECTIVE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS ENTERED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE DRY AT THE MOMENT. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN. THESE LIE IN
A LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE...ON THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WESTERN IOWA.
AIRMASS AROUND THE FRONT FAIRLY MOIST WITH GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWING VALUES OF 1.1-1.3 INCHES. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO
SEASONABLY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT REFLECTED BY 925MB TEMPS AT 00Z
AROUND 20C AT MPX...GRB AND DVN PER RAOBS. MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE
FRONT...READINGS WERE MUCH COOLER WITH 11C AT ABR AND 8C AT BIS.
THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR 500MB HEIGHTS TO FALL TODAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION. THE BIGGER MORE IMPORTANT QUESTION IS HOW MODELS HANDLE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS. THE 07.00Z GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN/ECMWF
TAKE IT EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY IT TO NEARLY A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...THE 07.00Z NAM SENDS IT TO THE EAST...
SPLITS IT INTO TWO AND WEAKENS THEM. LASTLY...THE 07.03Z-06Z RAP
MAINTAINS INTENSITY AND SENDS IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED
A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH WEIGHTS TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF.
THE GENERAL IDEA PRESENTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS. FIRST...THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND TO OUR WEST SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12-16Z. THIS BAND
MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PROGGED TO WANE
SOME. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO FIRE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS SUGGESTED BY MOST
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON THE TRACK OF THE KS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
FARTHER NORTH TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE RAP WOULD YIELD MORE
COVERAGE. CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN WISCONSIN PER NAM/ECMWF WHERE THEY MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS.
SEVERE CHANCES TODAY ARE LOW WITH 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR LESS THAN
20 KT. HOWEVER...AND THIS IS A BIG HOWEVER...SHOULD THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACH AS THE RAP SUGGESTS...THE 0-6KM SHEAR RAMPS UP TO
35-50KT ACROSS CLAYTON/GRANT COUNTIES BETWEEN 19-21Z. MUCH OF THIS
SHEAR IS ABOVE 4 KM BUT NONETHELESS COULD SUPPORT SOME ROTATING
STORMS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES WITH
CELLS RIDING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
CROSSING THE AREA. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THE POTENTIAL. HAVE
DECIDED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FUNNELS IN THE HWO...PER
COORDINATION WITH DMX AS WELL...ALONG WITH MAINTAINING HEAVY RAIN
CONCERN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.3 INCHES.
HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE COOLER OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
MORNING AND MORE CLOUDS. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
BE JUST A SMIDGE COOLER DUE TO 925MB TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO TOP OUT
AT 18C. COOLER NIGHT LIKELY TONIGHT AS 925MB PLUNGE TO 12C BY 12Z ON
A BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND...FOLLOWING A FULL PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN LONG TERM CONCERN IS MOSTLY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
MONDAY.
FLOW LOOKS TO TURN BRIEFLY ZONAL ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BEFORE MODELS SHOW 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING THROUGH
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ONE FOR OUR FOCUS COMES
DOWN OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS
TROUGH...WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN ITS WETTEST SOLUTION WHEN IT COMES
TO QPF. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN ARE THE 07.00Z GFS/CANADIAN
WHICH PRODUCE A DRY SOLUTION. THE DRY SCENARIO IS A RESULT OF THE
OTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH HEADS DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA BASICALLY
ROBBING MOISTURE. THE ECMWF LIES IN-BETWEEN THE TWO
SCENARIOS...THOUGH DOES SEEM TO BE TRENDING DRIER. GIVEN THE
SPREAD...HAVE CONTINUED 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES BUT GIVEN THE ECMWF
TREND THINK A DRIER SCENARIO IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
QUESTION MARK ON PRECIPITATION. HERE TOO FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP DRY...HIGHS MAY NEED A 5 DEGREE
BOOST UP.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS NEW TROUGHING TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S.. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW...THE REFLECTION OF THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY...IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING THROUGH MO AND IL. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD
SNEAK INTO VERY FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. HONORED THIS WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE. ALSO ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED A 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE AREA WITH A FASTER NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH SUGGESTED BY THE
06.12Z ECMWF.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES THAT NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH LIKELY TO
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RENEWED RIDGING OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AS A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY FOR
THE TROUGH THEN...HOWEVER...THE 07.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST THIS
TROUGH COULD BE MOISTURE STARVED. FOR THE MOST PART DRIER WEATHER
LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT KEPT SOME LOW 20
PERCENT CHANCES IN THE SOUTH SUGGESTED BY THE 07.00Z GFS. THAT
MODELS HAS THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THURSDAYS TROUGH STALLING IN OUR
SOUTH.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO BE
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. APPEARS THE THREAT FOR TSRA IS OVER FOR KRST...WITH
THE MAIN CONCERN FROM HERE THE POSSIBLITY FOR LIGHT FOG
OVERNIGHT. FOR KLSE...COULD STILL BE SOME TSRA THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON...BUT THREAT IS WANING THERE AS WELL. RAIN SHOULD EXIT
TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHT FOG THERE AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT ADDITION TO THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1102 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ALIGNED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT. SCT TSRA ARE
SHIFTING NE FROM NE IA INTO WRN WI. HRRR TRENDS ARE PREFERRED ON A
SLOWER EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THESE CELLS INTO SC WI THIS AFTN.
BEST CHANCE OF TSRA FOR MOST OF SRN WI WILL BE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT MOVES SE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY CELLS. SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS INTO OH VLY FOR SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH TAKING UP RESIDENCE
ACRS THE WRN GRT LAKES. POST FRONTAL STRATUS POTENTIAL SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/MOS SHOW
SOME OF THIS MIXING OUT IN THE AFTN...ESP IN ERN WI.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD ON INCREASING CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY OVER NORTHWEST WI...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTN AND EVE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND LOW PRESSURE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S HAVE BEEN POOLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT
THIS HIGHER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS AFTN. AS A
RESULT EXPECT SFC BASED CAPE TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTN AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. BESIDES WEAK FRONT...SRN WI WILL
BE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL BE MOVING E-NE. STRONGEST OMEGA WILL
REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO 700H CIRCULATION HOWEVER. NEVER THE
LESS...EXPECTED THIS TRIGGER TO INTERACT WITH INSTABILITY TO CAUSE
SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EVE. WL KEEP LIKELY WORDING IN THE
WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AS FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.
0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS WEAK HOWEVER MOST NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
PARAMETERS ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK BOUNDARY
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI. BOTH WRF ARW AND NMM SHOW 0 TO 1KM
LAPSE RATES AROUND 10C WITH HIGH 0 TO 3KM CAPES WELL OVER THE
THRESHOLD OF 100 J. SFC RELATIVE VORTICITY BORDERLINE BUT ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS INTO HWO OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS AFTN.
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING SO WL CUT BACK ON T
MENTION FOR THE LATE NIGHT. LAKE MI SFC TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S MID-LAKE TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE SHALLOWER
WATERS. AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...EASTERN AREAS SHOULD COOL QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY SBM AREA.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY AS SOME
FORCING WITHIN LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HANGS ON AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY BY
AFTERNOON THOUGH...WITH HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ON SATURDAY.
MODELS STILL HAVE A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT ONLY
THE NAM IS HOLDING ONTO ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SOME
PRECIP CHANCES. OTHER MODELS HAVE MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. HELD ONTO
SOME POPS FOR NOW PER THE NAM...BUT OVERALL IT SEEMS THINGS ARE
TRENDING DRIER FOR MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
MOVE SLOWLY FROM MISSOURI TUESDAY EVENING...TO LAKE HURON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWER
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS ON THE LOW END WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
MAINLY MENTIONED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY DUE TO HIGHER
CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THE GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE SPLOTCHY PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LACK OF MOISTURE SUGGEST DRY
WEATHER...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN
THE WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOSTLY A VFR PERIOD BUT WL NEED TO WATCH SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. SLOWER MOVING CONVECTION MAY
BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING
BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT MAY ALSO ALLOW CIGS TO APPROACH MVFR
LEVELS BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN 12Z
TAFS.
MARINE...PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BEHIND CDFNT THAT WILL BE
SAGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
SHALLOW...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WILL ALLOW NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
MOST FAVORED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUN
MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. WL HOLD OFF ON SMALL
CRAFT ADVY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
605 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...RIDGING
OVER WI AND MI...AND A CONVECTIVE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS ENTERED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE DRY AT THE MOMENT. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN. THESE LIE IN
A LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE...ON THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WESTERN IOWA.
AIRMASS AROUND THE FRONT FAIRLY MOIST WITH GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWING VALUES OF 1.1-1.3 INCHES. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO
SEASONABLY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT REFLECTED BY 925MB TEMPS AT 00Z
AROUND 20C AT MPX...GRB AND DVN PER RAOBS. MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE
FRONT...READINGS WERE MUCH COOLER WITH 11C AT ABR AND 8C AT BIS.
THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR 500MB HEIGHTS TO FALL TODAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION. THE BIGGER MORE IMPORTANT QUESTION IS HOW MODELS HANDLE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS. THE 07.00Z GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN/ECMWF
TAKE IT EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY IT TO NEARLY A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...THE 07.00Z NAM SENDS IT TO THE EAST...
SPLITS IT INTO TWO AND WEAKENS THEM. LASTLY...THE 07.03Z-06Z RAP
MAINTAINS INTENSITY AND SENDS IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED
A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH WEIGHTS TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF.
THE GENERAL IDEA PRESENTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS. FIRST...THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND TO OUR WEST SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12-16Z. THIS BAND
MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PROGGED TO WANE
SOME. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO FIRE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS SUGGESTED BY MOST
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON THE TRACK OF THE KS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
FARTHER NORTH TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE RAP WOULD YIELD MORE
COVERAGE. CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN WISCONSIN PER NAM/ECMWF WHERE THEY MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS.
SEVERE CHANCES TODAY ARE LOW WITH 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR LESS THAN
20 KT. HOWEVER...AND THIS IS A BIG HOWEVER...SHOULD THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACH AS THE RAP SUGGESTS...THE 0-6KM SHEAR RAMPS UP TO
35-50KT ACROSS CLAYTON/GRANT COUNTIES BETWEEN 19-21Z. MUCH OF THIS
SHEAR IS ABOVE 4 KM BUT NONETHELESS COULD SUPPORT SOME ROTATING
STORMS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES WITH
CELLS RIDING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
CROSSING THE AREA. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THE POTENTIAL. HAVE
DECIDED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FUNNELS IN THE HWO...PER
COORDINATION WITH DMX AS WELL...ALONG WITH MAINTAINING HEAVY RAIN
CONCERN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.3 INCHES.
HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE COOLER OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
MORNING AND MORE CLOUDS. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
BE JUST A SMIDGE COOLER DUE TO 925MB TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO TOP OUT
AT 18C. COOLER NIGHT LIKELY TONIGHT AS 925MB PLUNGE TO 12C BY 12Z ON
A BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND...FOLLOWING A FULL PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN LONG TERM CONCERN IS MOSTLY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
MONDAY.
FLOW LOOKS TO TURN BRIEFLY ZONAL ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BEFORE MODELS SHOW 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING THROUGH
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ONE FOR OUR FOCUS COMES
DOWN OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS
TROUGH...WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN ITS WETTEST SOLUTION WHEN IT COMES
TO QPF. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN ARE THE 07.00Z GFS/CANADIAN
WHICH PRODUCE A DRY SOLUTION. THE DRY SCENARIO IS A RESULT OF THE
OTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH HEADS DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA BASICALLY
ROBBING MOISTURE. THE ECMWF LIES IN-BETWEEN THE TWO
SCENARIOS...THOUGH DOES SEEM TO BE TRENDING DRIER. GIVEN THE
SPREAD...HAVE CONTINUED 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES BUT GIVEN THE ECMWF
TREND THINK A DRIER SCENARIO IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
QUESTION MARK ON PRECIPITATION. HERE TOO FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP DRY...HIGHS MAY NEED A 5 DEGREE
BOOST UP.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS NEW TROUGHING TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S.. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW...THE REFLECTION OF THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY...IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING THROUGH MO AND IL. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD
SNEAK INTO VERY FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. HONORED THIS WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE. ALSO ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED A 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE AREA WITH A FASTER NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH SUGGESTED BY THE
06.12Z ECMWF.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES THAT NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH LIKELY TO
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RENEWED RIDGING OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AS A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY FOR
THE TROUGH THEN...HOWEVER...THE 07.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST THIS
TROUGH COULD BE MOISTURE STARVED. FOR THE MOST PART DRIER WEATHER
LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT KEPT SOME LOW 20
PERCENT CHANCES IN THE SOUTH SUGGESTED BY THE 07.00Z GFS. THAT
MODELS HAS THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THURSDAYS TROUGH STALLING IN OUR
SOUTH.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO BE
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE KRST AERODROME MAINLY IN THE 15-19Z TIME FRAME AND THE
KLSE AERODROME MAINLY IN THE 17-21Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE VFR IN TS ACTIVITY OR OTHERWISE. LOOK FOR THIS
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING BEHIND.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
306 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...RIDGING
OVER WI AND MI...AND A CONVECTIVE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS ENTERED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE DRY AT THE MOMENT. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN. THESE LIE IN
A LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE...ON THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WESTERN IOWA.
AIRMASS AROUND THE FRONT FAIRLY MOIST WITH GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWING VALUES OF 1.1-1.3 INCHES. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO
SEASONABLY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT REFLECTED BY 925MB TEMPS AT 00Z
AROUND 20C AT MPX...GRB AND DVN PER RAOBS. MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE
FRONT...READINGS WERE MUCH COOLER WITH 11C AT ABR AND 8C AT BIS.
THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR 500MB HEIGHTS TO FALL TODAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION. THE BIGGER MORE IMPORTANT QUESTION IS HOW MODELS HANDLE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS. THE 07.00Z GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN/ECMWF
TAKE IT EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY IT TO NEARLY A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...THE 07.00Z NAM SENDS IT TO THE EAST...
SPLITS IT INTO TWO AND WEAKENS THEM. LASTLY...THE 07.03Z-06Z RAP
MAINTAINS INTENSITY AND SENDS IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED
A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH WEIGHTS TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF.
THE GENERAL IDEA PRESENTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS. FIRST...THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND TO OUR WEST SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12-16Z. THIS BAND
MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PROGGED TO WANE
SOME. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO FIRE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS SUGGESTED BY MOST
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON THE TRACK OF THE KS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
FARTHER NORTH TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE RAP WOULD YIELD MORE
COVERAGE. CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN WISCONSIN PER NAM/ECMWF WHERE THEY MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS.
SEVERE CHANCES TODAY ARE LOW WITH 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR LESS THAN
20 KT. HOWEVER...AND THIS IS A BIG HOWEVER...SHOULD THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACH AS THE RAP SUGGESTS...THE 0-6KM SHEAR RAMPS UP TO
35-50KT ACROSS CLAYTON/GRANT COUNTIES BETWEEN 19-21Z. MUCH OF THIS
SHEAR IS ABOVE 4 KM BUT NONETHELESS COULD SUPPORT SOME ROTATING
STORMS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES WITH
CELLS RIDING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
CROSSING THE AREA. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THE POTENTIAL. HAVE
DECIDED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FUNNELS IN THE HWO...PER
COORDINATION WITH DMX AS WELL...ALONG WITH MAINTAINING HEAVY RAIN
CONCERN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.3 INCHES.
HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE COOLER OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
MORNING AND MORE CLOUDS. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
BE JUST A SMIDGE COOLER DUE TO 925MB TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO TOP OUT
AT 18C. COOLER NIGHT LIKELY TONIGHT AS 925MB PLUNGE TO 12C BY 12Z ON
A BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND...FOLLOWING A FULL PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN LONG TERM CONCERN IS MOSTLY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
MONDAY.
FLOW LOOKS TO TURN BRIEFLY ZONAL ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BEFORE MODELS SHOW 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING THROUGH
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ONE FOR OUR FOCUS COMES
DOWN OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS
TROUGH...WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN ITS WETTEST SOLUTION WHEN IT COMES
TO QPF. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN ARE THE 07.00Z GFS/CANADIAN
WHICH PRODUCE A DRY SOLUTION. THE DRY SCENARIO IS A RESULT OF THE
OTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH HEADS DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA BASICALLY
ROBBING MOISTURE. THE ECMWF LIES IN-BETWEEN THE TWO
SCENARIOS...THOUGH DOES SEEM TO BE TRENDING DRIER. GIVEN THE
SPREAD...HAVE CONTINUED 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES BUT GIVEN THE ECMWF
TREND THINK A DRIER SCENARIO IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
QUESTION MARK ON PRECIPITATION. HERE TOO FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP DRY...HIGHS MAY NEED A 5 DEGREE
BOOST UP.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS NEW TROUGHING TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S.. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW...THE REFLECTION OF THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY...IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING THROUGH MO AND IL. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD
SNEAK INTO VERY FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. HONORED THIS WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE. ALSO ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED A 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE AREA WITH A FASTER NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH SUGGESTED BY THE
06.12Z ECMWF.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES THAT NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH LIKELY TO
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RENEWED RIDGING OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AS A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY FOR
THE TROUGH THEN...HOWEVER...THE 07.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST THIS
TROUGH COULD BE MOISTURE STARVED. FOR THE MOST PART DRIER WEATHER
LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT KEPT SOME LOW 20
PERCENT CHANCES IN THE SOUTH SUGGESTED BY THE 07.00Z GFS. THAT
MODELS HAS THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THURSDAYS TROUGH STALLING IN OUR
SOUTH.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO BE
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND
SATURDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA...WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD HAVE SOME WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT. THE MAIN AREA OF PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER STAYS TO THE NORTH WITH JUST SOME SHORT PERIODS
OF WEAK ADVECTION COMING ACROSS. THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER IN THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND THEN WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES EAST. THE MAIN JET CORE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH JUST SOME WEAK LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE MAIN CONCERN IS JUST HOW
MUCH WILL OCCUR. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE
ON THE SCATTERED SIDE WHILE THE 07.00Z GFS AND 06.12Z ECMWF HAVE
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS. THE 06.12Z HI-RES ARW AND 07.02Z HRRR ARE
LENDING MORE SUPPORT TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION SHOWING MAINLY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE
CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE NAM...ARW AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AND SHOW SOME SHOWERS
MOVING IN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL NOT SHOW
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDER...BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT WHEN THIS MAY OCCUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY INCLUDE A
VCTS. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT AGAIN...TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST
TIME FRAME FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD COME
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1151 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT AND SAT NT
HOWEVER SCT TO NMRS TSTORMS WILL RESTRICT CIGS AND VSBYS TNT.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME
WEAKENING OF THE STORMS IS ANTICIPATED AS THEY MOVE TOWARD ERN
WI...THUS ONLY CHANCES OF TSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH VCNTY LOWER MI MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE INFLUENCE
ACRS MUCH OF SRN WI. MOIST AXIS RETURNING AROUND HIGH AND AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS FROM NW WI INTO NW IA. PLACEMENT OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD REFLECTS THIS HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AND HIGHER
MLCAPE ENVIRONMENT FROM IA INTO NRN WI. SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
SPOTTY CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE NW CWA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATING DIURNALLY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES. COOLEST WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING LINGERS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING. THIS GIVES WAY TO
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FORCING AS ISODROSOTHERM AXIS SHIFTS EAST
INTO SRN WI AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEANS IN. AXIS OF HIGHER CAPE
EXPECTED IN SC WI. WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST...PRETTY MUCH
IN LINE WITH GOING GRIDS. 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH A NEARLY DRY
SCENARIO FOR ALL OF SRN WI. REASON BEING IS THEIR SOLUTION HAS THE
SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH WITH 500 RIDGING LINGERING INTO SE WI. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON A DRY SCENARIO FOR THE FAR EAST FOR THE WHOLE
DAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO BLEND WITH
NEIGHBORS BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM THIS BACK SHOULD
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK. NAM/ECMWF KEEP 925 TEMPS 18-20C
CWA WIDE WITH THE GFS QUICKER ON 925 COOLING INTO NW CWA.
EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND 80 OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE COOLED OR RAIN
COOLED AREAS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE 850MB COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI SAT NIGHT AT
THE SAME TIME AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS IL. THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 850MB FRONT
PHASED IN ONE LINE AND DROPS THE 850MB FRONT ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO
NORTHERN IL BY NOON SUNDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF MOVE THE SHORTWAVE EAST
OF IL BY 7 AM SUNDAY BUT STALLS THE 850MB FRONT OVER CENTRAL WI
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
CHANCES TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
850MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE...NORTHWEST OF MADISON OR OVER
MADISON AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT.
NOTHING TOO NOTEWORTHY ABOUT THE CONVECTION...WITH ML CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF A LITTLE OVER AN INCH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS SOME FORCING
WITHIN LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HANGS ON. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
BE DRY BY AFTERNOON THOUGH...WITH HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A 500MB SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA.
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER...ALTHOUGH KEPT
LOW POPS IN SOUTHERN WI DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING THE NEXT FRONT
THROUGH WI ON THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WEATHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL...POSSIBLY
CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CU FIELD PLACED IN HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AWAY
FROM THE DRIER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT FORM WILL
BE CONCENTRATED IN THIS AREA...SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TAF
SITES INTO THE EVENING. KMSN WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS/FRONT LEANS
INTO SRN WI WITH MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG. FLOW ALOFT IS VERY
WEAK SO NO REAL SHEAR TO SPEAK. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL IN AREAS WITH HIGHER CAPE
VALUES. CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SPARK
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. A COLD FRONT FRONT...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE A TROUGH ILL EDGE EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL ORIENT ITSELF OVER NORTH SECTIONS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL ALL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
12Z FORECAST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE
FORECAST. THE NAM IS STILL SHOWING DECENT FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900
TO 700 MB LAYER TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING...SO PLENTY OF SUPPORT TO KEEP SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FAIRLY HEALTH
TOMORROW WITH VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.45 IN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND COULD
CREATE PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ALONG OR SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THE OVERALL THUNDER COVERAGE MAY NEED BE
LOWERED WITH MORE OF THE ACTIVITY BEING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. CONFIDENCE LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK SO CHOSE TO LEARN TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS
BLEND. PLAN ON NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND
SATURDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA...WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD HAVE SOME WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT. THE MAIN AREA OF PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER STAYS TO THE NORTH WITH JUST SOME SHORT PERIODS
OF WEAK ADVECTION COMING ACROSS. THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER IN THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND THEN WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES EAST. THE MAIN JET CORE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH JUST SOME WEAK LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE MAIN CONCERN IS JUST HOW
MUCH WILL OCCUR. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE
ON THE SCATTERED SIDE WHILE THE 07.00Z GFS AND 06.12Z ECMWF HAVE
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS. THE 06.12Z HI-RES ARW AND 07.02Z HRRR ARE
LENDING MORE SUPPORT TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION SHOWING MAINLY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE
CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE NAM...ARW AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AND SHOW SOME SHOWERS
MOVING IN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL NOT SHOW
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDER...BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT WHEN THIS MAY OCCUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY INCLUDE A
VCTS. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT AGAIN...TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST
TIME FRAME FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD COME
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE BEHIND LAST EVENINGS COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
LATE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AFTN
WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. WEBCAMS
ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO THE SUMMIT SHOW FOG SO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE LOOKS GOOD. WE
HAD A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH CHEYENNE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 1AM THAT CAUSE VIS TO RISE. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THE FOG TO REDEVELOP NEAR CHEYENNE THROUGH SUNRISE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT
LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
COULD MAYBE GET AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE
AFTN...BUT NOT CONFIDENT SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE
PLAINS. SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM IDAHO
TONIGHT AND BE OVERHEAD BY SUN AFTN. LOOKING FOR BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ON SUN WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO BETTER INSTABILITY. STILL CONCERNED THAT PERSISTENT STRATUS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY MORE THAN THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUN AFTN AS THE GFS SHOWS INSTABILITY RISING
TO AROUND 1250 J/KG. COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON SUN
EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL ON SUN NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND 700MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND 2C. MANY LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS (PW VALUES BELOW 0.5
INCHES) COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE IF
ANY CONVECTION ON MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ALTHOUGH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH WEAK ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED AS THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM JET OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND AS A THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIDING THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD
SEE A FEW OVERNIGHT STORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AS A LLVL
JET DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA EARLY ON AND OVERRIDES THE SFC BOUNDARY. A
STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW WILL AMPLIFY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...SO CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
FLOW. LOOKING AT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THIS UPSLOPE PATTERN. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WITH A LEESIDE SFC LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONVERGE
WITHIN THE LEESIDE SFC TROUGH. SO LOOKING AT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITHIN THIS
AREA OF SFC FORCING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESSENED DUE TO
MID LEVEL DRYING. THE SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WAVE TREKS EASTWARD...WITH NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED IN ITS
WAKE...DRYING OUT THE LLVLS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
RAWLINS AND LARAMIE...VFR PREVAILS...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AT LARAMIE.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR PREVAILS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH IFR THEN
DEVELOPING UNTIL VFR DEVELOPS AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 60 PERCENT TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND ABOVE 30 PERCENT TO THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH
PLATTE AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCATIONS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MINOR FLOODING WILL DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
559 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE BEHIND LAST EVENINGS COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
LATE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AFTN
WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. WEBCAMS
ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO THE SUMMIT SHOW FOG SO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE LOOKS GOOD. WE
HAD A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH CHEYENNE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 1AM THAT CAUSE VIS TO RISE. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THE FOG TO REDEVELOP NEAR CHEYENNE THROUGH SUNRISE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT
LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
COULD MAYBE GET AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE
AFTN...BUT NOT CONFIDENT SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE
PLAINS. SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM IDAHO
TONIGHT AND BE OVERHEAD BY SUN AFTN. LOOKING FOR BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ON SUN WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO BETTER INSTABILITY. STILL CONCERNED THAT PERSISTENT STRATUS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY MORE THAN THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUN AFTN AS THE GFS SHOWS INSTABILITY RISING
TO AROUND 1250 J/KG. COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON SUN
EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL ON SUN NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND 700MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND 2C. MANY LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS (PW VALUES BELOW 0.5
INCHES) COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE IF
ANY CONVECTION ON MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ALTHOUGH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH WEAK ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED AS THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM JET OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND AS A THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIDING THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD
SEE A FEW OVERNIGHT STORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AS A LLVL
JET DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA EARLY ON AND OVERRIDES THE SFC BOUNDARY. A
STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW WILL AMPLIFY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...SO CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
FLOW. LOOKING AT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THIS UPSLOPE PATTERN. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WITH A LEESIDE SFC LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONVERGE
WITHIN THE LEESIDE SFC TROUGH. SO LOOKING AT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITHIN THIS
AREA OF SFC FORCING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESSENED DUE TO
MID LEVEL DRYING. THE SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WAVE TREKS EASTWARD...WITH NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED IN ITS
WAKE...DRYING OUT THE LLVLS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDMORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WEST. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS WELL...WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY SO CEILINGS MAY NOT LIFT MUCH UNTIL EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH THE SREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS WITH MVFR OR BETTER EXPECTED IN AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 60 PERCENT TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND ABOVE 30 PERCENT TO THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH
PLATTE AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCATIONS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MINOR FLOODING WILL DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE BEHIND LAST EVENINGS COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
LATE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AFTN
WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. WEBCAMS
ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO THE SUMMIT SHOW FOG SO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE LOOKS GOOD. WE
HAD A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH CHEYENNE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 1AM THAT CAUSE VIS TO RISE. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THE FOG TO REDEVELOP NEAR CHEYENNE THROUGH SUNRISE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT
LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
COULD MAYBE GET AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE
AFTN...BUT NOT CONFIDENT SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE
PLAINS. SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM IDAHO
TONIGHT AND BE OVERHEAD BY SUN AFTN. LOOKING FOR BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ON SUN WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO BETTER INSTABILITY. STILL CONCERNED THAT PERSISTENT STRATUS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY MORE THAN THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUN AFTN AS THE GFS SHOWS INSTABILITY RISING
TO AROUND 1250 J/KG. COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON SUN
EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL ON SUN NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND 700MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND 2C. MANY LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS (PW VALUES BELOW 0.5
INCHES) COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE IF
ANY CONVECTION ON MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ALTHOUGH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH WEAK ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED AS THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM JET OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND AS A THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIDING THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD
SEE A FEW OVERNIGHT STORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AS A LLVL
JET DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA EARLY ON AND OVERRIDES THE SFC BOUNDARY. A
STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW WILL AMPLIFY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...SO CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
FLOW. LOOKING AT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THIS UPSLOPE PATTERN. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WITH A LEESIDE SFC LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONVERGE
WITHIN THE LEESIDE SFC TROUGH. SO LOOKING AT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITHIN THIS
AREA OF SFC FORCING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESSENED DUE TO
MID LEVEL DRYING. THE SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WAVE TREKS EASTWARD...WITH NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED IN ITS
WAKE...DRYING OUT THE LLVLS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THAT THESE CIGS WILL LIFT MUCH BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO KEPT PREVAILING MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 60 PERCENT TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND ABOVE 30 PERCENT TO THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH
PLATTE AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCATIONS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MINOR FLOODING WILL DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1220 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS ON THE DOWNWARD TICK WITH ONLY ONE LONE
THUNDERSTORM REMAINING OVER SW NATRONA COUNTY. A SOUTHEASTWARD
DRIFT WOULD BRING IT INTO NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY IF IT CAN HOLD
TOGETHER. EVEN IF IT DOES...WOULDNT EXPECT INSTABILITY TO LAST
LONG ENOUGH TO BRING IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
SHIRLEY/SEMINOE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A COOL DAMP NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE REACHED THE SNOWY RANGE/RAWLINS AS
OF 03Z. COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE HAS COOLED
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S OVR THE ERN PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE.
MODELS PROG THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE TO BE MAINTAINED THRU THE NIGHT
AND THE HRRR IS ADVERTISING PERSISTENT FOG OVR THIS AREA THRU THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT PATTERN AND STRENGTH OF THE COLDER
AIR MASS OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND ERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT
THRU 15Z AT WHICH TIME FOG SHOULD LIFT TO A STRATUS DECK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS
TURNED OVER AN AIR MASS...COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STABILIZATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH OVR THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY WEAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE DOWNTREND...MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS OVER. MAIN PUSH OF COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. COULD EVEN SEE SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR SATURDAY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AND
COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND TO
THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND ANY STORMS THAT FORM WOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF AS THEY MOVE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
MORE LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT SHOWERS...AND FOG FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS COOL EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS
DIFFER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SOME KEEPING THE EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE WHILE OTHERS SHOWING A PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
LIKEWISE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA AS WELL. A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT AS WELL
WITH MINS MONDAY MORNING IN THE 30S IN SOME VALLEY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DRY AND MILD MONDAY THEN WARM FOR THE REST OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW THROUGH
WEDS...THEN BACKING TO SW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THAT THESE CIGS WILL LIFT MUCH BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO KEPT PREVAILING MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
FLOOD WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE WITH SARATOGA AND
SINCLAIR EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE LARAMIE RIVER SHOULD SEE THE FLOOD WATERS
GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED AND
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL RIVER RISES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1137 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SHIFTED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND IT IS BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND
FRONT RANGE. THESE WILL END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR SPREADS
SOUTHEAST. RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
PAST MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS THE LIFT FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL ON
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MOST OF
THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...AS
WARM AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MODELS HAVE WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT
STAYS WEAK AND IS ZONAL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...THAT PUSHES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS WEAK DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY IS PROGGED. DOWNWARD MOTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS POINT TO NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SURGE OF
COOLER AIR AND UPSLOPE FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY SPARSE MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID
DAY TUESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED
IN THE 30S F TO MID 40S F FOR THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THERE ARE SOME MID
40S F TO MID 50S F PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS NO CAPE
PROGGED OVER THE CWA MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS VERY WEAK CAPE
AROUND LATE DAY TUESDAY. CAPE IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. THERE IS NO MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS MONDAY EVENING...THEN A TAD OF
MEASURABLE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE DAY TUESDAY. FOR
LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BIT MORE. FOR POPS...NONE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. SOME MINOR HIGH COUNTRY POPS LATE
DAY TUESDAY...THEN NOTHING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH
20-40% POPS LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS WARM UP 4-10 C FROM MONDAY`S HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-2 C COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE UPPER RIDGING THURSDAY
...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY...ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SATURDAY...THEN ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS PRETTY
SPARSE MUCH OF THE TIME...EVEN WITH THE TROUGH SATURDAY. THE HOT
DAY IS FRIDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
AS THE RUC AND HRRR HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING...THERE IS
A SLIGHT REBUILDING TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN
FROM THE SYSTEM OUT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. HAVE ADDED A FEW
HOURS OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ADDED IN SOME VCSH TO KAPA...ALTHOUGH
KDEN MAY SEE IT AS WELL. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AFTER
07Z WITH LITTLE TO ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT
BELIEVE ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL ENTER THE AREA TO PREVENT IT FROM
HAPPENING...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
RIVER LEVELS HAVE BEEN ON A VERY SLOW DOWNWARD TREND FOR THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS BUT STILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CAUSE SOME RISES ON STREAMS
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. WILL KEEP ADVISORIES IN SUMMIT AND
GRAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS ON THE SOUTH PLATTE. WILL ALSO KEEP THE
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CACHE LA POUDRE IN THE GREELEY AREA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
505 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST TODAY...AND SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
RETURN SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS TRACKING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THEY
ACCOMPANY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION NOTED...ALONG WITH H8 WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT REMAINS TO OUR WEST.
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL...WITH PERHAPS SOME PEEKS OF SUN THIS
AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MORNING SHOWERS FROM NYC WEST
MOVING EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF CT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS TO OVERCOME...BUT LAPS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MID LEVEL
SATURATION OCCURRING...AND HRRR ALONG WITH 4 KM SPC WRF SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY TRACKS AN AREA OF SHOWERS EAST. AS SUCH...WILL RAISE
POPS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES TODAY. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR LIKELY OR EVEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
IN GENERAL...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER DUE TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAN TOWARD COOLER MET NUMBERS
TODAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND ONSHORE FLOW. IN FACT...MET NUMBERS MAY PERFORM BETTER THAN A
MOS BLEND TODAY...BUT ANY SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE...THUS
DO NOT WANT TO DISCOUNT THE MAV NUMBERS ALTOGETHER.
THERE IS A BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY
DUE A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WIND AND WIND WAVE. HAVE FORECASTED
MODERATE DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MODERATE RIPS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH SEVERAL MODERATE RIP REPORTS NOTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS THE AREA...SETTLING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE
SW/W FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT
LIKELY OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY PER SOUNDINGS.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
TONIGHT...AND WILL BE INCLUDED IN GRIDDED DATABASE.
FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND...WITH 60S TONIGHT AND 70S...TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY
AWAY FROM THE SHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TO START THE PERIOD WILL DRIVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
ACROSS TUE NIGHT. CHANCE POP WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY FOR INLAND SECTIONS AND IN THE EVENING. TEMPS ON WED SHOULD
BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEG COOLER THAN THOSE OF TUE. UPSLOPE E-SE FLOW
AND PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT TO FAR NW SECTIONS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC ON WED AS WELL. MEANWHILE...ENOUGH
DRY AIR SHOULD WORK IN FROM NEW ENGLAND TO LEAD TO SOME CLEARING
ACROSS CT FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT THU INTO THU NIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDER. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH LATE THU NIGHT OR
FRI MORNING...THEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY AND A
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW...
SHOULD SEE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST.
DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY LATER SAT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.
TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT BELOW AVG WED-THU IN THE CANADIAN MARITIME AIR MASS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING IN THE
REGION.
FIRST ROUND OF PCPN MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. GENERALLY
EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 11-13Z...WITH ON/OFF RAIN THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING A BREAK AFTR FIRST
ROUND...WITH PSBL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS POPPING UP FOR THE AFTN. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF TSTM RIGHT NOW SO WILL NOT INCLUDE. TIMING OF TEMPO
GROUP MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED +/- 1-2 HOURS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BACK TO SE FLOW AFTR 12Z. GENERALLY
EXPECTING LESS THAN 10 KTS.
CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP 2500-3000 FT BY LATER MORNING...ESP WITH ANY
PCPN. BETTER CHC FOR LOWER CIGS DOWN TO BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR AFTR
03Z TONIGHT. FOG PSBL AS WELL...DROPPING VIS DOWN TO 2-4SM.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN COULD BE MORE PERIODIC IN NATURE
TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF TSTM THIS AFTN.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MOD CONFIDENCE ON PCPN FOR THIS AFTN.
MAY OCCUR 1-2 HOURS EARLIER. MOD CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AFTR 12Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MOD CONFIDENCE ON PCPN FOR THIS AFTN.
MAY OCCUR 1-2 HOURS EARLIER.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN COULD BE MORE PERIODIC IN NATURE
TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF TSTM THIS AFTN.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN COULD BE MORE PERIODIC IN NATURE
TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF TSTM THIS AFTN.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE ON PCPN THIS MORNING...LOW
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN FOR THE AFTN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU TODAY. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT HOWEVER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE
TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS LIGHTEN TUESDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS.
GENERALLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND OR UP TO 1/3 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TODAY.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ON FRI.
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS POSSIBLY
NEARING 2 INCHES PER 00Z ECMWF...AND STORMS COULD BE SLOW
MOVING/TRAINING GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. WILL
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR NYC METRO NORTH/WEST.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
356 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST TODAY...AND SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
RETURN SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS TRACKING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THEY
ACCOMPANY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION NOTED...ALONG WITH H8 WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT REMAINS TO OUR WEST.
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL...WITH PERHAPS SOME PEEKS OF SUN THIS
AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MORNING SHOWERS FROM NYC WEST
MOVING EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF CT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS TO OVERCOME...BUT LAPS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MID LEVEL
SATURATION OCCURRING...AND HRRR ALONG WITH 4 KM SPC WRF SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY TRACKS AN AREA OF SHOWERS EAST. AS SUCH...WILL RAISE
POPS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES TODAY. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR LIKELY OR EVEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
IN GENERAL...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER DUE TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAN TOWARD COOLER MET NUMBERS
TODAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND ONSHORE FLOW. IN FACT...MET NUMBERS MAY PERFORM BETTER THAN A
MOS BLEND TODAY...BUT ANY SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE...THUS
DO NOT WANT TO DISCOUNT THE MAV NUMBERS ALTOGETHER.
THERE IS A BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY
DUE A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WIND AND WIND WAVE. HAVE FORECASTED
MODERATE DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MODERATE RIPS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH SEVERAL MODERATE RIP REPORTS NOTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS THE AREA...SETTLING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE
SW/W FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT
LIKELY OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY PER SOUNDINGS.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
TONIGHT...AND WILL BE INCLUDED IN GRIDDED DATABASE.
FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND...WITH 60S TONIGHT AND 70S...TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY
AWAY FROM THE SHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TO START THE PERIOD WILL DRIVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
ACROSS TUE NIGHT. CHANCE POP WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY FOR INLAND SECTIONS AND IN THE EVENING. TEMPS ON WED SHOULD
BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEG COOLER THAN THOSE OF TUE. UPSLOPE E-SE FLOW
AND PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT TO FAR NW SECTIONS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC ON WED AS WELL. MEANWHILE...ENOUGH
DRY AIR SHOULD WORK IN FROM NEW ENGLAND TO LEAD TO SOME CLEARING
ACROSS CT FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT THU INTO THU NIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDER. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH LATE THU NIGHT OR
FRI MORNING...THEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY AND A
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW...
SHOULD SEE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST.
DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY LATER SAT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.
TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT BELOW AVG WED-THU IN THE CANADIAN MARITIME AIR MASS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN A KSWF THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO NYC METRO TERMINALS AROUND 10/11Z...THEN
FURTHER EAST ON INTO THE MORNING. EXPECTING A BREAK AFTR FIRST
ROUND...WITH PSBL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS POPPING UP FOR THE AFTN. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF TSTM RIGHT NOW SO WILL NOT INCLUDE. TIMING OF TEMPO
GROUP MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED +/- 1-2 HOURS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BACK TO SE FLOW AFTR 12Z. GENERALLY
EXPECTING LESS THAN 10 KTS.
CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP 2500-3000 FT BY LATER MORNING...ESP WITH ANY
PCPN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU TODAY. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT HOWEVER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE
TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS LIGHTEN TUESDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS.
GENERALLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND OR UP TO 1/3 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TODAY.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ON FRI.
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS POSSIBLY
NEARING 2 INCHES PER 00Z ECMWF...AND STORMS COULD BE SLOW
MOVING/TRAINING GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. WILL
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR NYC METRO NORTH/WEST.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
341 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER KS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID SOUTH...THEN
TURN NORTHEAST. INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY WED. NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A THIRD SYSTEM
SLATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. MAIN SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH/COOL FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM LOW TO
WEAK SYSTEM OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. H850 MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LOFTED
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND THE RESULTING SHOWERS EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS
ALBERT LEA MN...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER AT
0745Z. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...DRIER EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
DAMPEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...BUT THE BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR LESSER
RAIN CHANCES IS THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WESTERN KS
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST. THIS IS LESSENING THE FRONTAL FORCING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH.
GRADUALLY TODAY THE FOCUS OF FORCING WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF IOWA WITH
THE TROUGH STRUCTURE OVER NORTHWEST IOWA BASICALLY FALLING APART.
THUS...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN SECTIONS TODAY AND ALL AREAS SEEING LESSENING POP
CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EARLY TODAY THERE IS VIRTUALLY
NO INSTABILITY SO HAVE CUT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TRACE
TO 0.50 INCHES WITH HEAVIER TOTALS NORTHWEST AND WEST. THE
EURO/GEM/GFS AS WELL AS THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS TREND. HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER NORTHWEST UNDER CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS INCREASE ELSEWHERE AND
WITH 10C TO 12C AT H850 AND LIMITED MIXING WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ANOTHER PLEASANTLY WARM DAY IS HEADED FOR THE AREA WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 NORTHWEST AND IN THE MID 70S FROM CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
WITH LOW OVER THE PLAINS DIVING SOUTH...EXPECT TO SEE THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THOUGH THERE MAY BE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUE...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
NOT MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE SYSTEM TODAY AND THE NEXT ONE. FOR
THAT REASON...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH IT. THOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT ON WED NIGHT AND
THU...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE A GREAT DEAL OUT OF IT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE THIRD SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE
MOISTURE WITH IT. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD OVER A
PERIOD OF 36 TO 48 HOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...09/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN IN FAR NORTHWEST
IOWA OVERNIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS STAYING DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN NEAR KFOD AND KMCW DURING THE
MORNING...HOWEVER FORCING WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME ACROSS THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON IN
CENTRAL IOWA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN OF LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAYBREAK GIVEN THE LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS...RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES IN MANY LOCATIONS AND
RECENT RAINFALL.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS JUN 14
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...MS JUN 14
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
457 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
FIRST FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS CYCLE WILL BE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AND CORRESPONDING SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. SECOND WILL BE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM
OUT OF THE PLAINS THAT WILL SEND A WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS. SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE SHORT TERM IS LOWER THAN USUAL.
MODEL/MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE HIGH FOR POPS LATE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE SHORT TERM. TRENDS IN THE HRRR SUGGEST THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY/TN WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES
THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY BUT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD TOGETHER
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME SCT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...SO ONLY
INCLUDED AN ISOLD CHANCE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I75.
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS
SHOOTS UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN APPEARS MUCH
GREATER...BUT BASED ON RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME OF THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE LACKING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
CUTOFF LOW WILL START OUT ACROSS MISSOURI...GRADUALLY DAMPENING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY MERGES INTO A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE
RESIDUAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WILL CONTINUE TO STICK WITH A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS SINCE
TIMING ANY GIVEN PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN.
IN GENERAL...POP CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST OVERALL FORCING AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE FORCING
WILL BE WEAKER...ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS SUCH...WILL
ONLY CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TAFS THIS MORNING. BASED ON OBS AND REGIONAL
SAT PICS IT APPEARS THE LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY IS BEING ERODED A BIT FROM THE WEST. BATTLING THIS ERODING
EFFECT IS A SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH WIND FLOW THAT IS TENDING TO KEEP
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SOCKED IN...ESPECIALLY AT KSJS
WHERE THERE IS A MINOR UPSLOPE EFFECT. AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT
TO TELL IF ONE OR THE OTHER WILL WIN OUT. UNFORTUNATELY GUIDANCE IS
NOT MUCH HELP...AND RECENT UPDATES EVEN APPEAR TO BE FOLLOWING THE
OBS WHICH IS A STRONG INDICATION THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A HANDLE
ON EVENTS. DECIDED BEST ROUTE WAS TO FOLLOW PERSISTENCE UNTIL
DEFINITE TRENDS COULD BE ESTABLISHED. THAT BEING SAID EXPECT A
TENDENCY FOR KJKL AND JSJS TO REMAIN AT MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING UP TO SUNRISE...DUE MAINLY TO
LOWER CIGS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING IN WEST CONCERN WILL BE
FORMATION OF LIST MIST AND CORRESPONDING MVFR CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION...RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD ARRIVE A BIT SOONER
THAN MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY/TN ATTM WILL
WEAKEN ON THE EASTERN FRINGES...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL THIS EVENING. BASED ON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC PREFER A SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION/ONSET ESPECIALLY WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MEANING PRECIPITATION PROCESSES
WILL NOT HAVE TO GO INTO MOISTENING UP A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. LATEST RUNS OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THIS LINE OF THOUGHT...KEEPING THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MORE IN TACT THAN RECENT RUNS. CONTINUED TO CARRY VCSH
AROUND THE MID DAY TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN TERMINALS
WITH STEADY PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1156 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.
UPDATE Issued at 949 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Updated the forecast to account for the swath of light to moderate
rains moving eastward near the Mississippi River. It has shown
signs of weakening in intensity in the last hour and expect that
trend to continue through midnight, as it moves through the
Purchase Area of Kentucky and the southern tip of Illinois. Would
also expect it to become more focused along the Tennessee border
area late this evening. See no instability to support the thunder
mention, so removed it for the remainder of the night.
Trended the PoP grids back toward the original forecast overnight,
but really don`t see much in the latest guidance to support the
likely PoPs in southeast Missouri. It appears that the morning may
be dry throughout the area before the next round arrives in the
afternoon. Will work on the forecast for this first area of rain
and let the midnight shift deal with the early morning timeframe.
Also had to increase cloud cover throughout the area through the
night, with the latest satellite trends supported by the latest
short term guidance. This led to a slight increase in Lows,
especially in the northeast.
UPDATE Issued at 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Made some adjustments to PoPs over southeast Missouri through the
evening to reflect latest radar trends. The primary rainshield
will impact the western 4 counties for a few hours, but not sure
how far east it will make it. The 18Z GFS may be onto something
with this disturbance moving east across the southern half of the
area through the evening, and then drying out in its wake
overnight. It is likely overdone with QPF as it heads eastward
through the area, but the overall trend may not be that bad.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Some slight pre-issuance adjustments were made to parts of Ripley
and Butler County Missouri with respect to precipitation chances
late this afternoon. Regional NWS radar mosaic showing 20+ dbZ
echoes encroaching toward the WFO PAH CWA around 20z. Although
there is still some dry air advection going on near the surface,
an accelerated downward saturation of the layer north of the
warm frontal boundary southwest of the forecast area should
support at least isolated rain/sprinkles before the end of the
first period (today). The 12z deterministic 12km NAM-WRF/40km GFS
are about 40-60 nautical miles too far southwest with this
convection, while the explicit 3km HRRR is about 20-30 nautical
miles further northeast with the 1km reflectivity than observed by
radar. Ironically, the 09z/15z SREF appears to be a good
compromise and was utilized for the last minute updates.
As the MCV/ mesoscale closed low shears out as it moves northeast
overnight, low level ageostrophic forcing will bring moist flow
back into the area, while impressing a differential convergence
zone and inverted trough at the surface. These features will be
loosely in place when the larger player (the eastern Colorado
closed low) moves into western Kansas and dives into northeast
Oklahoma early Monday evening. The approach of this low will
sharpen lapse rates both at the surface and aloft, as well as
enhance moisture convergence, setting a warm front across the
southern third of the WFO PAH forecast area. SPC is hinting that
this differential zone may be the foci for scattered strong to
severe storms during the late afternoon and evening. This is
definitely a possibility.
Although there is some similarities with this closed low to the
one that moved north of the WFO PAH forecast area on Saturday,
this next low will be a little slower moving with wind fields more
unidirectional with height. However the compensating factor may be
a sharp gradient of moisture/lapse rates along the eastern limb of
the closed low. This may yield some strong/severe thunderstorms,
mainly in the eastern sections of the WFO PAH CWA (mainly
West Kentucky Pennyrile/Southwest IN). The overall concern will be
heavy rain potential on Tuesday. Fortunately, the greatest storm
total QPF (rainfall) will likely be centered over western sections
of Southeast Missouri, where lesser amounts of antecedent rainfall
have occurred the last five days. However, the potential for
flooding will must be concerned given the terrain of Southeast Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
In the extended portion of the forecast package, the ECMWF (and to
a degree) the GFS, follow the translation of the upper low
northeast of the area into the Great Lakes region by 12z Thursday.
Minor disturbances push in the northwest flow behind this upper
low until the ridge builds in at low and middle levels Friday
night. This will keep minor chances for showers and thunderstorms
in place at least through the daytime hours on Friday. It looks
like we may see at least one day break in the convection on
Saturday before a return to southwest flow occurs late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
An upper-level disturbance will help push an area of light rain
eastward through KCGI and KPAH for the next couple of hours. This
should be of little consequence, so will keep the forecast VFR.
It appears as though the area will remain dry until late Monday
afternoon, when the next disturbance will shoot quickly northeast
into the area. Went with prevailing showers with a PROB30 for MVFR
TSRA through the evening at KCGI and KPAH. Farther northeast,
guidance is not as excited about TS, so just brought in prevailing
MVFR ceilings with light rain for the last 3 hours of the
forecast.
Some guidance is advertising MVFR if not IFR ceilings for much of
the day at KCGI and KPAH, but it seems a bit overdone given the
overall situation, so will keep them VFR until the next round of
precipitation arrives.
Wind direction may be difficult to pin down, but a general veering
trend is expected, just don`t know if it will get to southeast or
whether it will only get to due east. Speeds should be aob 10kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
108 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RDGS OVER THE W AND ALONG THE E COAST. SFC HI
PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS UNDER A WEAK SHRTWV RDG ROTATING E THRU
THE TROF AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS /PWAT
ARND 0.35 INCH...ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ ARE BRINGING MOSUNNY
CONDITIONS TO THE CWA THIS AFTN. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LO 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK MODERATION. THERE ARE 2
SHRTWVS OF INTEREST UPSTREAM EMBEDDED IN THE UPR TROF. THE FIRST IS
MOVING E NEAR LK WINNIPEG...AND THE OTHER IS DIGGING SEWD THRU
SASKATCHEWAN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS ON MON ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE NOW IN
SASKATCHEWAN.
TNGT...SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG AND ACCOMPANYING DEEPER MSTR ARE
PROGGED TO MOVE E THRU ONTARIO N OF LK SUP TNGT...WITH LTL IMPACT ON
UPR MI. SFC HI PRES RDG IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE UPR LKS TO THE
S OF THIS PASSING SHRTWV. BUT SOME HI CLDS/A BIT HIER PWAT OVER 0.5
INCH NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE WLY
FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E...WHERE
THE DEEP DRIER AIR WL LINGER LONGER.
MON...SHRTWV NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO SWING ESEWD THRU
THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW LTL
RESPONSE IN THE MSLP FIELD OVE THE AREA...WITH SFC HI PRES RDG STILL
DOMINATING...THERE WL BE LTL IF ANY MSTR INFLOW FOR THIS DISTURBANCE
TO TAP. CONSIDERING THE ABSENCE OF MSTR INFLOW...WEAK DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC...MINIMAL HGT FALLS...AND MARGINAL MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...MOST OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS GENERATE LTL IF ANY PCPN
ACRS UPR MI...MAINLY ACRS THE WRN CWA WHERE FCST SDNGS SHOW MORE
MOISTENING AND KINX RISING TO 25 TO 30. FCST SNDGS FARTHER E SHOW A
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS PERSISTING THRU THE DAY WITH ONLY SOME
MID/HI CLDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE. GOING FCST SHOWING SCHC
POPS OVER THE WRN CWA APPEARS ON TRACK. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT
ARND 9C AND SOME CLDS...MAX TEMPS NOT FAR FM 70 SEEM RSNBL. WEAK
PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW LK BREEZES TO FORM AND LOWER TEMPS NEAR THE
LK SHORES. THE MOST PRONOUNCED LK COOLING WL COME OFF LK MI WITH LGT
SE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE HIEST TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
E...WHERE THE CLDS WL BE THINNER AND LLVL ESE FLOW WL LACK LAKE
MODERATION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND
SFC SFC RIDGE SIT OVER THE CWA. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP COME WED
INTO THU NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS GETS SHEARED APART AND MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER ON WED WHEN LOOKING AT CONSENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT AFTER WED MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARD TO THE
STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF THE TWO FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN
WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ON OR AROUND
THU/THU NIGHT THAN WITH THE SHEARED OFF LOW MOVING TO THE SE OF THE
CWA WED/WED NIGHT. CUT BACK SOME ON POPS ON WED. THINK THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT/THU COVERED THIS SCENARIO WELL...SO WILL NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO IT.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST OF FRI AND SAT WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. SUN WILL SEE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS MODEL INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH A SFC LOW MOVING N OF THE CWA WHILE DRAGGING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
A HIGH PRES RIDGE AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ALTHOUGH A DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE W WILL
BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY AND PERHAPS A SHOWER OR
SOME SPRINKLES TO KIWD...THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
LOWER CIGS/VIS RESTRICTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WL DOMINATE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER THRU FRI. BEST CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 20 KTS WILL
BE LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SHARPER GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Have updated the forecast to remove PoPs through midnight and only
keep slight chance PoPs going through 12Z. All of the latest guidance
from the HRRR to the coarse resolution GFS and ECMWF keep the area
dry through at least midnight and possibly thereafter until good
chances arrive tomorrow. Also trended cloud cover to match with the
latest visible satellite and blended that into the going forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Short term Tonight through Wednesday.
Main focus is on an approaching upper level trough currently over
the NRN and CNTRL Rockies. The trough is progged to rapidly deepen
as it moves out over the NRN/CNTRL Plains later tonight. The system
has already generated a line of thunderstorms across CO and NE and
these should increase in areal coverage and head east toward the
CWA. The models differ insofar as timing with the precip. The NAM
is faster due to it doesn`t deepen the trough as fast as the GFS and
EC. The GFS and EC quickly close an upper level parent low west of
the CWA thus slowly the troughs overall translational eastward
progresses. As a result the leading edge of the widespread precip is
much slower in working into the CWA...after 12Z tomorrow. There may
be a storm or two very late tonight across the CWA on the nose of
WAA and rapid moisture advection. The inherited pops were maintained
should the NAM verify but now have this evening dry Through midnight.
Nearly all the models agree on a southern shift to the QPF where now
it appears locations south of I-70 will receive the largest rainfall
amounts. The threat for SVR storms appears very low due to limited
instability. However, locally heavy rainfall may become a factor
for flash flooding and river flooding during the day on Monday. The
system hangs over the region through Tuesday before we start to see
dry conditions and clearing skies. Wednesday should be dry with
near normal temps ahead of the next system.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
The extended time period will be characterized by a continued
progressive flow with the chance for a few rounds of precipitation
and a return to near normal temperatures. In the wake of the upper
level closed low (which will alter the progressive pattern during
the short term) moving east into the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday,
the flow will again become progressive.
Wednesday night an upper level shortwave trough will move through
the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This will force an
associated cold front into the local area bringing another round of
showers and thunderstorms which will persist into Thursday. Thursday
night through Friday look to remain dry. Yet another shortwave
traversing the northern Plains will force another cold front into
the area Saturday/Saturday night and another round of thunderstorms
will be possible.
With the flow being quasi-zonal through most of this period,
temperatures will reside near normal. Thursday and Friday highs will
be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Saturday and Sunday highs will be
in the low to mid 80s which is normal this time of year as the
average high at MCI is 83/84 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
It still appears there will be prolonged period of at least MVFR
ceilings, punctuated with IFR ceilings late tonight through mid morning
on Monday. Confidence has increased that ceilings should lift to MVFR
by mid morning so the going forecast remains on track. It also seems
convection is more likely to be delayed until tomorrow evening so
have pushed back VCTS mention accordingly. Otherwise, winds will
generally be light and from a easterly direction.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...CDB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
135 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK, SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT, AND TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED, WITH SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WELL TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAPPENED IN CENTRAL AND NRN STEUBEN
AND INTO YATES AND SCHUYLER. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES REPORTED AND
ROAD CLOSURES. OBVIOUSLY FFW ISSUED. THIS FINALLY MOVING ENE BUT
RAINFALL RATES AND CG STRIKES DECREASING. IN FFW AREA SCATTERED
MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS REST OF NIGHT. REST OF CWA NO ISSUES NOW AND
NONE EXPECTED. HRR STILL TRACKING WELL. UPDATED GRIDS SLIGHTLY.
7 PM UPDATE...
UPDATE TO SPEED UP SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. AHEAD OF EVEN THE FAST
HRRR MODEL. SHOULD BE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES INTO THE DRY STABLE AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA. MORE
UNSTABLE AIR OVER CENT PA AND WRN NY MOVING EAST INTO STEUBEN
ATTM. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST BUT TEMPS SHOULD DROP. WITH WEAK
WIND SPEEDS AND LOW TOPPED CONVECTION SEVERE WX SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT TONIGHT. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN. SO FAR
STRIPES OF INCH PER HOUR RAIN IN STEUBEN. WITH THE LACK OF RAIN IN
THE LAST 2 WEEKS THIS AMOUNT WILL NOT CAUSE PROBLEMS. THE SECOND
BATCH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR TRAINING IN THE FAR WEST.
245 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER, CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
NORTHEAST AND IS NOW INTO WESTERN NY AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN OHIO
THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS (THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT ARE RUNNING 25 TO 30 DEGREES RIGHT NOW), HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS WELL IN
LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
THAN THE ARW OR THE NMM. I LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER`S IDEA OF
SHOWING THE HIGHEST POPS STILL IN THE FINGER LAKES BUT I DID BUMP
UP POPS INTO THE 80%+ RANGE HERE GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 0Z IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY ALONG OR WEST OF I-81
AFFAIR. AFTER 0Z AS OUR COLUMN MOISTENS, RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST SLOWLY AND AT SOME POINT, MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
RAIN TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR THE MORE APPRECIABLE RAINS WILL BE IN
THE FINGER LAKES, WITH A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN AMOUNTS THE
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST YOU LIVE FROM THIS LOCATION. AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM LATE EVENING ON AS PWATS
CLIMB FROM UNDER AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES. WE CAN CERTAINLY HANDLE
THIS RAIN IN MOST CASES AS WE HAVE BEEN VERY DRY LATELY. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE CATSKILLS, BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. I LEFT IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER (ISOLATED)
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST PA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GENERAL WEAKNESS EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS CHANCES AROUND ESPECIALLY FOR NEPA
AND THE CATSKILLS, WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL NY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD IS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE, TO VARYING DEGREES, SHOW
THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. WHILE NO MAJOR TRIGGERS ARE
NEARBY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR
AROUND AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
US. THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMING LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE DAY AS A CUT OFF LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND
WE GET CLOSER TO SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STILL IT APPEARS THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN, BEYOND TONIGHT, MAY BE AT THE TAIL END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTS THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM. WV
CURRENTLY TRACKING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WL EVENTUALLY CLOSE
OFF OVR THE SRN PLAINS WITH SW FLOW OVER US. THIS WL SHOOT S/WVS
OVR THE CWA AT RANDOM LEADING TO MOSTLY HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITH THE MOST LKLY TIME FOR PCPN TO FALL DRG DIURNAL HTG.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE FRI NGT WITH BEST CHC FOR TSTMS EXPECTED
FRI AFTN.
SFC HIPRES LOOKS AS THO IT WL BUILD IN SAT MRNG WITH ANOTHER NICE
WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE ON TAP WITH 585 HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO AREA.
TEMPS DRG THE EXTNDD WL BE IN THE 70S AND NR 80F WHICH IS A FEW
DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
UPPER WAVE FINISHING ITS TREK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS OF THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS INTRODUCED VERY SOUPY AIR MASS
INCLUDING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL KSYR-KRME-KBGM...AND
EVEN AN INCH OR SO FOR KELM-KITH. MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER
SOUTH...INCLUDING KAVP. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MEAN
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN IFR-MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT KITH-
KELM-KBGM...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR KAVP-KRME-KSYR. BRIEF LIFR NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION KBGM-KELM-KITH. WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERS
THROUGH THIS COMING DAY WHICH WILL INCLUDE SCT SHRA ESP KAVP-KBGM-
KELM-KITH. MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIG THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY...LOWERING TO FUEL ALT MVFR THIS EVENING...PERHAPS ON
WAY TO WORSE AFTER 06Z TUE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...IFR-MVFR LINGERS INTO TUE MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. TUE THRU THU...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS.
THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST
HOUR...WITH A FEW CELLS IN THE CROSBY/WILLISTON AREA MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK CAPE OVER CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED. KEPT
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WITH DECREASING CHANCES TOWARDS
SUNRISE.
ALSO MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY FROM THE
BISMARCK AND MANDAN AREA NORTHEASTWARD TO WELLS COUNTY. EVENING
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE LIKELY PRODUCED ENOUGH AVAILABLE SOIL MOISTURE
FOR FOG AS SEEN AROUND BISMARCK AND AT THE AIRPORT - BUT WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS THE FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAD INTENSIFIED INTO THUNDERSHOWERS AND
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND NOW EXTEND FROM NEAR THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO RUGBY...TO NEAR GARRISON. THIS LINE IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
STATE...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3
AM MONDAY MORNING. UPDATED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA A BIT LONGER. NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED AS CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE. NO THUNDER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
AND LATEST RAP SHOWS RAPIDLY DECREASING MU-CAPE IN THIS AREA...SO
WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER HERE. STILL A FEW STRIKES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE MU CAPE REMAINING...SO WILL LEAVE A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER YET. UPDATE MAINLY DEALT WITH POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHERWISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND CARRINGTON AND
JAMESTOWN...SOUTHWEST THROUGH BISMARCK MANDAN TO NEAR HETTINGER
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
PARAMETER ALSO IS DIMINISHING. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR
DISSIPATE THE LINE AROUND 02Z/05Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONGER FORCING MAY KEEP THE SHOWERS
AROUND A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WITH LACKING INSTABILITY THE THUNDER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THE EARLY EVENING. UPDATED POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
AS OF 2015 UTC...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR SCHEFIELD AND RICHARDTON...THROUGH STANTON AND BOWDON
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. THE RAP/HRRR HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THEIR
LATEST ITERATIONS FOR POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO APPROACH BISMARCK BY 22-23 UTC AND
KJMS BY 23-00 UTC. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO BE MINDFUL OF THE
POSSIBILITY OF LAND SPOUTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY GIVEN LOW LCLS AND
ELEVATED NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER VALUES. HOWEVER...HAVE
NOT HAD ANY FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS THUS FAR. FOR LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FAR NORTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LOW IN COVERAGE
AND NON-SEVERE.FOR MONDAY...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED UNDER A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS OF 70 TO
80 WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
TUESDAY...WHERE WE WILL HAVE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP IT MAINLY DRY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO MINNESOTA
AND IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO GATHER IN
EASTERN PARTS OF WYOMING AND MONTANA. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS AS THE H85 LIFTS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
THE CONVECTION THAT MOVED SOUTH OF BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN CONTINUES
TO DISSIPATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL. REMAINING INSTABILITY ALOFT
CONTINUES TO WANE AND BEST FORCING WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA SO UNCERTAIN AS TO IF ANY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH KBIS OR KJMS. WILL LIKELY BE A LAST
MINUTE DECISION WHETHER TO ADD A VCTS. JUST RECENTLY...PATCHY GROUND
FOG WAS DEVELOPING AROUND KBIS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WILL ADD A TEMPO FOR FOG AT KBIS. WILL SEE HOW THIS DEVELOPS
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FROM KDIK TO KISN WITH AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
BRINGING CHANCE OF THUNDER AT KISN AFTER 02 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1124 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAD INTENSIFIED INTO THUNDERSHOWERS AND
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND NOW EXTEND FROM NEAR THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO RUGBY...TO NEAR GARRISON. THIS LINE IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
STATE...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3
AM MONDAY MORNING. UPDATED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA A BIT LONGER. NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED AS CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE. NO THUNDER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
AND LATEST RAP SHOWS RAPIDLY DECREASING MU-CAPE IN THIS AREA...SO
WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER HERE. STILL A FEW STRIKES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE MU CAPE REMAINING...SO WILL LEAVE A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER YET. UPDATE MAINLY DEALT WITH POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHERWISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND CARRINGTON AND
JAMESTOWN...SOUTHWEST THROUGH BISMARCK MANDAN TO NEAR HETTINGER
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
PARAMETER ALSO IS DIMINISHING. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR
DISSIPATE THE LINE AROUND 02Z/05Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONGER FORCING MAY KEEP THE SHOWERS
AROUND A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WITH LACKING INSTABILITY THE THUNDER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THE EARLY EVENING. UPDATED POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
AS OF 2015 UTC...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR SCHEFIELD AND RICHARDTON...THROUGH STANTON AND BOWDON
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. THE RAP/HRRR HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THEIR
LATEST ITERATIONS FOR POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO APPROACH BISMARCK BY 22-23 UTC AND
KJMS BY 23-00 UTC. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO BE MINDFUL OF THE
POSSIBILITY OF LAND SPOUTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY GIVEN LOW LCLS AND
ELEVATED NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER VALUES. HOWEVER...HAVE
NOT HAD ANY FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS THUS FAR. FOR LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FAR NORTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LOW IN COVERAGE
AND NON-SEVERE.FOR MONDAY...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED UNDER A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS OF 70 TO
80 WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
TUESDAY...WHERE WE WILL HAVE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP IT MAINLY DRY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO MINNESOTA
AND IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO GATHER IN
EASTERN PARTS OF WYOMING AND MONTANA. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS AS THE H85 LIFTS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
POSSIBLY A PASSING SHOWER YET AT KMOT AND KJMS OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. OTHERWISE CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE NIGHT AT
AERODROMES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND A
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT KISN AND KMOT TONIGHT...ALL AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KDIK AND KISN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1204 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ALL SITES TO SEE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN RA/TSRA TOWARDS 10Z TO
12Z AS MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL FROM THAT POINT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD... AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AT KMLC AND KFSM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
BEEN A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING...ASIDE FROM A BAND OF NEARLY
TROPICAL LIKE RAIN THAT DEVELOPED POSSIBLY ALONG A MID LVL
DEFORMATION ZONE AS INDICATED IN THE 700MB FLOW BETWEEN TULSA AND
MUSKOGEE. THE RADAR UNDERESTIMATED THE PRECIP THAT FELL AT THE
PORTER MESONET BY AT LEAST A HALF INCH...WITH MORE THAN 2 INCHES
FALLING WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. THERE WAS NO LIGHTNING
EITHER...ANOTHER INDICATOR. THIS BAND HAS DISSIPATED...AND THINGS
WILL BE QUIET UNTIL WHAT IS LEFT FROM AN MCS OUT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS
ACTIVITY IN AFTER 10Z. THERE WILL BE A FLOOD THREAT OVER EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OK WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY LIMITED DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER.
LACY
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ054-OKZ055-
OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
AVIATION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
345 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Large thunderstorm complex was moving into the northern county
warning area at 230 AM. HRRR model indicates the line of
thunderstorms to move to the I-20 corridor 5 to 6 AM...and into the
Concho Valley east to Coleman and Brownwood around 7 to 8 AM. Main
threats will be damaging winds as it moves through the Big Country
early this morning, along with locally heavy rainfall. A flash flood
watch is in effect for the Big Country through 1 PM, but expect most
of the heavy rainfall/flooding potential will be done in the Big
Country by 10 AM. Went categorical for rain chances in the Big
Country, likely in the Concho Valley and Heartland, and chance over
southern counties along the I-10 corridor. Thunderstorms should be
isolated in the Big Country by noon.
Scattered thunderstorms will developed southward as the cold front
moves south today. NAM and GFS models indicate the front to reach
San Angelo and Brownwood around 1 PM and south of I-10 by 6 PM.
Convection from MCS and other storms may make it difficult to pick
out. Some storm may become severe midday and afternoon, as GFS SB
CAPES range from 2000 to 2500 J/KG along and south of a Big
Lake...San Angelo...San Saba line at 1 PM CDT. Kept a slight chance
of storms along the I-10 corridor, and from Mason to San Saba and
Brownwood where there is lingering instability.
Temperatures will be cooler today, mainly in the 80s except for
highs around 90 along the I-10 corridor. Cooler tonight in the upper
50s as skies clear and winds become light.
04
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
The long term remains essentially dry. The NAM and GFS indicate a
broad upper ridge will develop over the region by mid week. In
response to this upper pattern shift, temperatures across West
Central Texas will warm back into the mid to upper 90s mid to late
this week. With weak westerly to northwesterly flow aloft over West
Central Texas by Wednesday evening, thunderstorms which develop to
the west and northwest could move into our counties. The GFS is more
aggressive with this scenario than the NAM. Given the possibility
for this to occur, continuing slight chance PoPs for mainly the
northwestern half of West Central Texas for Wednesday evening looks
reasonable. Otherwise, a dry forecast dominates the long term, with
afternoon highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s and lows mainly in
the 70 to 75 range.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 84 59 87 67 96 / 80 5 5 5 10
San Angelo 84 64 89 67 97 / 70 10 5 5 5
Junction 90 69 91 68 93 / 50 20 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
332 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS IS NOT CLEAR-CUT AS WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN TODAY AND ONLY DECREASE TO BELOW 10C
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY OVER THE NE 06Z...THEN EASTERN AREAS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. WITH MODELS FORECASTING UPPER JET DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THINK BEST SEVERE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF AREA TODAY...WITH TONIGHT ALL DEPENDING ON WHETHER
CONVECTION DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THIS EVENING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF THE HIGHER CAPES/INSTABILITY AND INFLOW (LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT AND STORM INFLOW NOT IMPRESSIVE). THUS...WILL LIKELY NEED
SOME MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES (E.G. RISE/FALL COUPLET TO ENHANCE STORM
INFLOW) TO GET SEVERE THREAT BETTER FOR TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION MOST AREAS...WITH CHANCE POPS
VICTORIA AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST SYNOPTIC MODELS (ESPECIALLY
ECMWF AND CANADIAN) ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE AREA DEVELOPING AND
MOVING TOWARD THE COAST 06Z-12Z (BASED ON QPF)...SO WILL BITE ON
THIS AND INCREASE POPS MOST EASTERN AREAS. WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE
FOR NOW...BUT LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE GIVEN THAT PERIOD 1 CONCERN IS
RATHER LOW AND PERIOD 2 CONCERN IS QUESTIONABLE (DEPENDS ON
MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES). CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY WILL BE EASTERN AREAS
AND LIKELY ONLY IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. GOING WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE EAST AND LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WEST TODAY BASED ON
PREVIOUS MODEL PERFORMANCE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...
GOING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS AM EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION
COMING IN OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME (IF NOT IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT). WITH UNCERTAINTY FOR
TONIGHT...AM GOING TO STAY CLOSER TO CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WILL MAINTAIN LOW-END SCA TIL 10
AM AS CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE...WITH RUC13 AND AVN-MOS SHOWING
SCA CONDITIONS BUT NAM NOT DOING SO (SYNOPTIC MODELS COME VERY
CLOSE). WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH BOUNDARY NORTH
OF THE WATERS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE FEW STRONG STORMS
OFFSHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTING OUT BY ONSET OF LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOULD HAVE ENDED PRECIP
CHANCES BEFORE TUESDAY NIGHT SO LOOKING AT A VERY DRY FORECAST
PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES COME CLOSE TO THE AREA
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH THIS AS WELL. THUS...MAINLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEK AFTER THE MON/TUES ACTIVITY. WILL SEE 850
TEMPS INCREASING GRADUALLY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SFC TEMPS. ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON
TEMPS...THURSDAY 850 TEMPS COULD BE IN THE 25-28 DEGREE RANGE WEST.
WAS A BIT LEARY OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WEST THURSDAY WITH LRD`S
INABILITY TO REACH 100 THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT IF 850 TEMPS DO
REACH THESE LEVELS SHOULD WARM NICELY. STILL GOING SLIGHTLY BELOW
SOME GUIDANCE VALUES. WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD SEE A BIT
MORE CLOUDINESS EAST TO KEEP TEMPS THERE FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.
TEMPS GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED INTO PARTS OF TEXAS...BUT AS IS TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WOULD EXPECT IT TO STALL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 95 75 92 76 95 / 10 40 40 10 10
VICTORIA 92 73 90 74 92 / 30 50 30 10 10
LAREDO 100 79 100 77 102 / 10 30 10 10 10
ALICE 96 74 95 73 95 / 10 40 30 10 10
ROCKPORT 91 78 89 79 91 / 20 40 40 10 10
COTULLA 99 73 98 75 101 / 20 30 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 95 74 93 75 94 / 10 30 30 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 91 77 89 79 91 / 10 40 40 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
101 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.MARINE...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE SCA FOR THE BAYS/WATERWAYS BUT
KEPT IT FOR THE GULF WATERS AS BORDERLINE CONDITIONS EXIST AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SCA THROUGH AT LEAST 9 AM. MAY
NEED TO RE-ADJUST LATER BEFORE 430 AM ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE TERMINALS FOR A TIME
THROUGH 14Z/15Z...SO WILL USE TEMPO GROUPS...TEMPO MVFR AT KCRP
AND MVFR/TEMPO VFR AT KALI AND KVCT. AT KLRD...CIGS BECOME MVFR
ABOUT 12Z...AND CONTINUE TO ABOUT 16Z. THEN EXPECTING VFR WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SE/SSE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEA-BREEZE. CONCERNING CONVECTION...MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY...SO HAVE KEPT THE VCSH/VCTS AT KVCT BUT
WILL NOT GO WITH TEMPOS AT THIS TIME SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
AND HRRR MODEL IS NOT SUPPORTING ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL. FOR
TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION APPROACH THE KLRD AREA MAINLY
TOWARD AND AFTER 10/06Z...SO HAVE MENTIONED A VCTS THERE. THINK
CONVECTION AT OTHER TERMINALS WILL STAY AWAY THROUGH THE 06Z
PERIOD...BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR
THE 12Z AVIATION PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...SHRA`S HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
S TX AND AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT.
TOWARD MON MORNING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR AVIATION IMPACTS
THROUGH MON MORNING AND HAVE A MENTION OF VCSH ONLY IN THE VCT TAF.
BY MON AFTERNOON...THE CHC FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE VCT CROSSROADS...THEREFORE HAVE MENTIONED VCTS IN THE
VCT TAF FOR MON AFTERNOON. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS EVENING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DVLPG OVERNIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. CIGS LIFT/ERODE THROUGH MID TO LATE MON MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF S TX. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN AND AROUND ANY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THAT MAY DVLP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF ADVECTS NORTHWESTWARD.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY
TONIGHT. STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO
NORTHERN COAHUILA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 40-50 KNOTS. THESE
STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING. WILL SHOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS EVENING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WEST TEXAS WHILE THE STRONGER TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO. UNCERTAINTY STILL THERE TO AN EXTANT WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WEST TEXAS. FIRST AREA APPEARS TO
BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE SECOND SYSTEM IS FORMING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THE FIRST COMPLEX IS EXPECT TO BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. BUT THE BETTER CHANCE MAY DUE TO THE
SECONDARY COMPLEX. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO AN
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER THE HILL COUNTRY DOWN INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO COULD SEND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS WITH ANOTHER LINE OF
STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
AIR MASS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE THAT STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS. BUT IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
END UP ON MONDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE.
RAISED POPS TO 40 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 35-40 KNOTS TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND EXPECT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO SCA OVER THE NORTHERN BAYS AND GULF WATERS TONIGHT.
WILL ISSUE SCA FOR BAYS TONIGHT AND FOR GULF WATERS UNTIL 15Z
MONDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT WE
MAY BE DEALING WITH A MORNING MCS ON TUESDAY. CONVECTION INITIATED
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE SEWD INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY WL EXIST FOR SOME STORMS TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...PRIMARILY FROM GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE ADVANCING
GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW. IF THIS SYSTEM BLASTS THROUGH TUE
MORNING...THEN NOT MUCH MAY DEVELOP TUE AFTN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. WL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TUE
AFTN GIVEN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE/LOW CIN AIRMASS. AFTER TUE...THE RDG
AXIS ALOFT WL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PCPN CHCS WL BE CLOSE TO NIL EXCEPT FOR
A FEW STREAMER SHRAS TWD THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPS WL BE
REBOUNDING AS WELL...PEAKING ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WL SLOWLY LEVEL OFF
THEREAFTER BUT STILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. AT LEAST A
MODERATE GRADIENT WL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...HELPING TO
PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE AFTN/EVE ESPECIALLY TWDS
THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 93 75 93 75 / 40 30 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 91 73 92 74 / 40 40 10 10 10
LAREDO 79 100 76 103 76 / 30 20 10 10 10
ALICE 76 93 73 95 73 / 40 30 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 79 90 78 89 78 / 30 40 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 98 74 102 75 / 40 20 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 93 74 94 75 / 40 30 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 89 79 89 79 / 30 30 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1208 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE TERMINALS FOR A TIME
THROUGH 14Z/15Z...SO WILL USE TEMPO GROUPS...TEMPO MVFR AT KCRP
AND MVFR/TEMPO VFR AT KALI AND KVCT. AT KLRD...CIGS BECOME MVFR
ABOUT 12Z...AND CONTINUE TO ABOUT 16Z. THEN EXPECTING VFR WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SE/SSE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEA-BREEZE. CONCERNING CONVECTION...MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY...SO HAVE KEPT THE VCSH/VCTS AT KVCT BUT
WILL NOT GO WITH TEMPOS AT THIS TIME SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
AND HRRR MODEL IS NOT SUPPORTING ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL. FOR
TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION APPROACH THE KLRD AREA MAINLY
TOWARD AND AFTER 10/06Z...SO HAVE MENTIONED A VCTS THERE. THINK
CONVECTION AT OTHER TERMINALS WILL STAY AWAY THROUGH THE 06Z
PERIOD...BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR
THE 12Z AVIATION PACKAGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...SHRA`S HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
S TX AND AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT.
TOWARD MON MORNING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR AVIATION IMPACTS
THROUGH MON MORNING AND HAVE A MENTION OF VCSH ONLY IN THE VCT TAF.
BY MON AFTERNOON...THE CHC FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE VCT CROSSROADS...THEREFORE HAVE MENTIONED VCTS IN THE
VCT TAF FOR MON AFTERNOON. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS EVENING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DVLPG OVERNIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. CIGS LIFT/ERODE THROUGH MID TO LATE MON MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF S TX. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN AND AROUND ANY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THAT MAY DVLP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF ADVECTS NORTHWESTWARD.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY
TONIGHT. STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO
NORTHERN COAHUILA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 40-50 KNOTS. THESE
STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING. WILL SHOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS EVENING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WEST TEXAS WHILE THE STRONGER TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO. UNCERTAINTY STILL THERE TO AN EXTANT WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WEST TEXAS. FIRST AREA APPEARS TO
BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE SECOND SYSTEM IS FORMING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THE FIRST COMPLEX IS EXPECT TO BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. BUT THE BETTER CHANCE MAY DUE TO THE
SECONDARY COMPLEX. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO AN
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER THE HILL COUNTRY DOWN INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO COULD SEND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS WITH ANOTHER LINE OF
STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
AIR MASS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE THAT STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS. BUT IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
END UP ON MONDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE.
RAISED POPS TO 40 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 35-40 KNOTS TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND EXPECT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO SCA OVER THE NORTHERN BAYS AND GULF WATERS TONIGHT.
WILL ISSUE SCA FOR BAYS TONIGHT AND FOR GULF WATERS UNTIL 15Z
MONDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT WE
MAY BE DEALING WITH A MORNING MCS ON TUESDAY. CONVECTION INITIATED
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE SEWD INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY WL EXIST FOR SOME STORMS TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...PRIMARILY FROM GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE ADVANCING
GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW. IF THIS SYSTEM BLASTS THROUGH TUE
MORNING...THEN NOT MUCH MAY DEVELOP TUE AFTN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. WL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TUE
AFTN GIVEN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE/LOW CIN AIRMASS. AFTER TUE...THE RDG
AXIS ALOFT WL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PCPN CHCS WL BE CLOSE TO NIL EXCEPT FOR
A FEW STREAMER SHRAS TWD THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPS WL BE
REBOUNDING AS WELL...PEAKING ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WL SLOWLY LEVEL OFF
THEREAFTER BUT STILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. AT LEAST A
MODERATE GRADIENT WL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...HELPING TO
PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE AFTN/EVE ESPECIALLY TWDS
THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 92 77 93 75 / 10 20 40 30 10
VICTORIA 77 91 75 91 73 / 10 30 40 40 10
LAREDO 79 101 79 100 76 / 10 10 30 20 10
ALICE 77 95 76 93 73 / 10 20 40 30 10
ROCKPORT 81 89 79 90 78 / 10 20 30 40 10
COTULLA 76 99 75 98 74 / 20 10 40 20 10
KINGSVILLE 78 94 76 93 74 / 10 20 40 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 89 79 89 79 / 10 20 30 30 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1159 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES
TO BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TIMING AROUND AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HAS BEEN LEFT BELOW AS THE GENERAL
THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED THAT MUCH. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ARE DETAILED BELOW:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
JUST NORTH OF DFW AREA TAF SITES AS OF 05Z. WENT AHEAD WITH VCTS
IN THE TAFS FROM THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD TO 10Z AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHICH IS
TOO CLOSE TO DFW AREA AIRPORTS TO LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER OUT
OF THE TAFS.
AT 10Z...THE SQUALL LINE IN PLACE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVING
SOUTHEAST IS PROGGED TO REACH THE DFW AREA RIGHT AT
10Z...THEREFORE MADE A TRANSITION IN THE TAFS FROM VCTS TO
PERSISTENT THUNDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SQUALL LINE WILL
TEND TO STABILIZE US QUICKLY...LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PLACE
THEREAFTER. THIS MAY REDUCE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
MORNING ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...HOWEVER THAT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW STRONG THE SQUALL LINE IS ONCE IT MAKES IT HERE...ASSUMING IT
DOES...AT 10Z.
PUT VCTS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED STORMS OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TOMORROW LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CAVANAUGH
.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
/ISSUED 702 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TIMING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE 3 POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THIS FORECAST.
THE FIRST ROUND IS ONGOING...AND CONSISTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO TO TYLER. IN NORTH TEXAS THIS BOUNDARY
WAS CLOSER TO WACO THAN IT WAS TO THE DFW AREA AIRPORTS. THINK
THAT MOST OF THESE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE DFW
AREA...AND ALSO THINK THEY ARE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...MEANING THAT THEY SHOULD WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE AN HOUR OR
TWO AFTER SUNSET. WENT AHEAD WITH VCTS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
KACT TAF AND WENT WITH ONLY VCSH AROUND THE DFW AREA AS A RESULT.
THE SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS
CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE 21Z RAP INDICATED THAT
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE QLCS ORGANIZING OVER EASTERN CO AND
NEW MEXICO MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR AFTER/AROUND 3 AM. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS IS PRIMARILY 3 AM TO 7 AM...SO
WENT AHEAD WITH VCTS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME. IF ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE VERY STRONG
ANYMORE...SO THE PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THE THIRD ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND JUST OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING
TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE MODELS ARE GENERALLY ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT (MAINLY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS) THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS AROUND THE DFW AREA WILL
BE FROM LATE TOMORROW MORNING TO EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WACO`S
BEST CHANCES WILL BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THIS THIRD
ROUND.
THESE STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND POSE A SLIGHTLY
GREATER HAIL AND WIND THREAT AS THIS LAST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
HAVE THE SUPPORT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS TOMORROW. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD COVER. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TEND TO KEEP STORMS ELEVATED...REDUCING THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT OVERALL. THIS PROBABLY REPRESENTS OUR BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
THIRD ROUND OF ACTIVITY PRODUCING STORMS THAT IMPACTS ALL AREA
AIRPORTS IS HIGH...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS WHAT IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO OUR WEST
NEAR COLEMAN TEXAS AND A SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. HI RES MODELS THIS EVENING ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
00Z KFWD SOUNDING SHOWS THE REGION WEAKLY CAPPED AND EXPECT THE
CAP TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH COLORADO AND WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PLAINS/WESTERN
KANSAS BY DAYBREAK. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL START TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS WEAK TROUGHING MOVES INTO NORTH
TEXAS...WHICH WILL AID IN SCATTERED ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIE.
THE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AMARILLO WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN OUR CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. WE DO
NOT EXPECT THIS LINE TO BE SEVERE WHEN IT ARRIVES BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTH TEXAS. THE LINE WILL MARCH ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH MORE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION...HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE MCS
OVERNIGHT AND THE SPEED OF A FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE MCS.
FOR THE UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND POPS
TONIGHT BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT. DID INCREASE POPS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING BACK TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER SPEED AND ARRIVAL
OF THE MCS.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO WHICH HAS KICKED OFF SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS IN RECOVERY MODE
AFTER THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEX DISSIPATED OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ONLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND THE RICH GULF MOISTURE HAS BEEN
DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AIRCRAFT DATA
SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A BUBBLE OF DRY AND WARM AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE HEART OF REGION...BUT
THE SURFACE WIND PATTERN IS MUDDLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THIS
FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. IT LIKELY LIES ALONG
A LINE FROM HOBBS NM TO ABILENE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT MAY RETREAT
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING CONTINUES MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD
BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS.
THUS WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE PRIMARY FORCING ARRIVES.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OF MUCH USE TODAY...AS IT DID NOT HANDLE
THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION WELL...WHICH MEANS IT DOES NOT REALIZE
HOW STABLE THE AIR IS OVER THE REGION OR WHERE THE SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. MOST SYNOPTIC MODELS BELIEVE IT SHOULD
BE RAINING HERE RIGHT NOW...AND THAT IS JUST NOT THE CASE. THE
HRRR IS PERFORMING THE BEST AND ITS FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE.
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHT/S A MCS HAS ORGANIZED OUT OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE MCS/S HAVE MOVED EASTWARD AND
AFFECTED THE REGION...AND TONIGHT THE STORM TRACK DOES FAVOR A MCS
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE PANHANDLE TO AFFECT OUR REGION. THE ISSUE IS
THAT A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS KEPT TEMPS 10-20
DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE MUCH STRONGER TONIGHT...SO A MCS SHOULD ORGANIZE
THERE BY LATE EVENING. THIS MCS WILL HAVE LESS INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH AND THUS BELIEVE IT MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MOVE SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS HAVE. THIS MEANS THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT ARRIVE
INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY TO MID MORNING MONDAY. EVEN IF THE
AIRMASS IS TOO STABLE FOR A MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND NW TEXAS TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTAIN
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WHEN THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES. POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT TONIGHT DUE TO CONCERNS THAT THIS
MCS MAY NOT DEVELOP ALTOGETHER...OR MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 7
AM MONDAY. HOWEVER POPS FOR MONDAY WERE INCREASED OVER THE AREA
AS FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EITHER
WITH THE MORNING MCS OR WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE AT A REASONABLE RATE TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM BEING EXCESSIVE. IN ADDITION...SEE NONE OF THE CLASSIC SIGNS
IN THE SYNOPTIC DATA FOR A SLOW MOVING...BACK-BUILDING MCS...OR
ECHO TRAINING. RAINFALL TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL AVERAGE A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION THE
HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN
2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST MONTH...AND THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS NEEDED. THE SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT LOOKS LOW TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BUT MAY INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH SOME DAY TIME HEATING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE 60S FOR LOWS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL
WARM GRADUALLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. IN ADDITION A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN LOW WITH THIS POTENTIAL...THUS WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND
PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE WITH THE FRONT AND LOWER HEIGHT
FIELDS...BUT SHOULD STILL STAY NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 85 67 86 67 / 60 70 20 5 5
WACO, TX 73 87 66 89 65 / 50 60 30 5 5
PARIS, TX 70 80 64 81 63 / 50 70 40 10 5
DENTON, TX 70 84 64 85 62 / 70 70 20 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 70 83 64 84 63 / 60 70 20 5 5
DALLAS, TX 72 85 68 86 68 / 60 70 20 5 5
TERRELL, TX 73 84 68 87 65 / 50 70 30 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 72 85 68 87 66 / 40 60 40 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 73 87 66 88 65 / 40 60 30 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 68 85 62 88 63 / 70 60 20 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS IF IT WILL RAIN TODAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...AN UPPER
LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THIS LATTER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...RAP TROPOPAUSE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A 100-130 KT
UPPER JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN MN. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM THIS JET STREAK...
COMBINED WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE THAT STRETCHES
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MN AS SEEN IN PROFILER AND VWP
DATA...HAS HELPED SUPPORT SHOWERS WITHIN THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. SOME
OF THE RAIN HAS HAD A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND IN SOUTHWEST MN
DUE TO EXTENSIVE DRY AIR BELOW 600MB SEEN ON THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING.
IN FACT...THE 700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ON THAT SOUNDING WAS 30C!
THIS DRY AIRMASS EXTENDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS ALSO
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SOME HIGH CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS HAS SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING TO PREVENT WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE
A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. STILL...READINGS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE 50S WITH THE COLD SPOTS IN WISCONSIN IN THE MID 40S.
THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IF ANY OF THAT SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST CAN MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
FRONTOGENESIS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER JET STREAK APPEAR TO BE
THE STRONG DRIVING FORCES FOR THE PRECIPITATION. THAT UPPER JET
STREAK IS PROGGED TO GET PUSHED EAST TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...REALLY ONLY THIS MORNING DO WE HAVE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING. MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO FALL APART THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING TREND FROM THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS...PLUS
THE EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN PLACE...REALLY MAKES IT QUESTIONABLE IF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. THE 09.00Z NAM HAS TRENDED
DRAMATICALLY DRIER COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND NOW ONLY
SKIRTS A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTH CENTRAL WI WITH SOME
RAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 09.00Z GFS AND 09.02-05Z HRRR
ARE VERY SIMILAR. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FALLS IN-LINE WITH THESE
MODEL SCENARIOS AND SEEMS REASONABLE.
A DECENT TEMPERATURE CONTRAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...RESULTING FROM
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER 925MB TEMPS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF COMPARED
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF. READINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 70 SAY IN
ROCHESTER AND MEDFORD...WHILE BOSCOBEL COULD MAKE A RUN TOWARDS 80.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY MAINTAINING CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE. THIS SETUP WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME MID
CLOUDS LOOK LIKELY TO LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP THERE...BUT TO THE NORTH...SITES LIKE
BLACK RIVER FALLS COULD DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND DURING THE WEEKEND.
MUCH OF THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW
TRACKING THROUGH MISSOURI ON TUESDAY...AND THEN PULLED NORTHEAST
TOWARDS CHICAGO ON WEDNESDAY BY THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...BUT AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW FROM THE
09.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF...IT APPEARS THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WI...RESULTING MAINLY FROM DIURNAL INSTABILITY. 09.00Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN/NAM/GFS ALL SHOW SOME CONVECTION...THOUGH THE GFS
IS LIKELY TOO ROBUST WITH ITS QPF COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS
WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH MID CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
START CLEARING WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREAS LONGITUDE. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING
OUT BETWEEN 16-18C ON TUESDAY SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. THESE
WARM TOWARDS 20C ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN...SUGGESTING WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO POP UP INTO THE LOW 80S AT MANY LOCATIONS THEN.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...MODEL QPF HAS INCREASED...
PRIMARILY IN THE 06-18Z THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. STILL...THERE ARE BOTH
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MOST
NOTABLY BETWEEN THE 09.00Z CANADIAN AND GFS. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT THE STRONGER TROUGH...BUT KEPT THEM
BELOW 60 FOR NOW SINCE THE STRONGER FORCING OVERALL LOOKS TO TAKE
PLACE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE STRONGER TROUGH...A
BREEZY THURSDAY IS LOOKING LIKELY...AND COULD BE DOWN RIGHT WINDY IF
THE MOST WOUND UP CANADIAN IS RIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANY
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TO 14-16C.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS
THAT UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...YIELDING MAINLY DRY AND
RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS. THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO AN UPPER TROUGH
PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE TRENDED FOR THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TO HOLD IN PLACE LONGER...CAUSING MORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH TO STALL OR DEFLECT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOME FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WHAT LOOKS TO BE A WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CEILINGS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. THE 09.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE OR
NO PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. IN ADDITION...IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONTOGENESIS...ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOT ADVANCING ANY FARTHER THAN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...IT DID TREND STRONGER WITH THE SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN AND BRINGS SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 40S UNTIL AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY CREEP INTO THE 50S.
THIS WOULD SET UP TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES AND
IF THE WAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...THEY MAY
NOT BE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH MID
LEVEL VFR CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING WITH A VCSH AT KRST FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER SATURATION. ONCE THE
WAVE MOVES PAST...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
THE STAGE AT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA IS BEING MONITORED
CLOSELY AS THE RIVER IS GETTING CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE. AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE STAGE WAS AT 11.82 FT...ONLY 0.18 FT BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THE RIVER ALSO APPEARS TO BE GETTING CLOSE TO CRESTING.
ITS LIKELY THE CREST WILL BE A LONG PLATEAU NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...AJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1036 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
Caught between high pressure ridge building in from the north and
a developing storm system out over the High Plains this morning.
Plenty of cloud cover to the south and some very isolated returns
on radar to the SE not amounting to much in the way of rainfall.
CU rule pointing to the development of cu this afternoon, but the
models have drastically overdone the available moisture in the
boundary layer, per 12z ILX sounding. Some isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible, particularly in the south as moisture
advects in. However, the HRRR is reflecting dry through 00z with a
better handle on the lack of moisture, so will keep higher chances
out of the forecast.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 702 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
clouds will be the rule this morning, but some scatter CU will
develop later this morning and continue into the afternoon hours.
Some models are bringing in some light showers into the sites this
afternoon, but confidence is low. So will not have any mention of
pcpn. Scattered CU will continue in the evening and overnight
hours as well. Models have really slowed the onset of steady pcpn
getting into the area, so will not have any mention of pcpn next
24hrs. Now looks like it will be after end of TAF period. Winds
will be northeast to start and then become southeast later this
morning, and then back to east-northeast overnight.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday
Main forecast challenge continues to be timing of an approaching
upper low and how much rainfall it will produce across central
Illinois. 07z/2am water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave
over eastern Colorado. As has been advertised for the past several
days, this feature is expected to close off over Kansas this
morning, then slowly track E/NE into Illinois by Wednesday. 00z
Jun 9 models continue to show this basic process, but have
significantly slowed the onset of precipitation across the KILX
CWA. Thanks in part to a dry E/NE low-level flow around high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes, it now appears today will
be a dry day across the area. The only possible exception will be
the far SE CWA south of I-70, where isolated showers may occur
well north of a stalled frontal boundary. Skies will be partly to
mostly sunny, with a gradual increase in cloud cover noted later
in the day. High temperatures will climb into the middle to upper
70s.
Closed 500mb low will track from southern Kansas to southwestern
Missouri by 12z Tue, gradually spreading precip northward into
central Illinois. Models have all slowed the precip, with the NAM
suggesting rain may not reach as far north as the I-72 corridor
until Tuesday afternoon. GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all a bit faster, so
will trend toward the model consensus for this forecast package.
Have therefore reduced POPs considerably for tonight, with likely
POPs now confined to areas along/south of I-70 only. Further
north, will go dry during the evening along/north of I-74, with
low chance POPs arriving after midnight.
Tuesday into Tuesday night now appears to be the most favored time
frame for significant precipitation. While surface dewpoints rise
into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees and precipitable water
values reach the 1.50 to 1.75 range, models are suggesting the
heaviest rainfall may develop from Louisiana/Arkansas northeastward
into the Ohio River Valley. As a result, have reduced overall QPF
expected from this event. Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 1.50
can be expected along/east of the Illinois River, with less than 1
inch further northwest toward Galesburg. Due to thick cloud cover
and off-and-on showers/thunder, high temps on Tuesday will be held
in the upper 60s and lower 70s in most locations. Mid-level dry
slot may tend to work its way into east-central and southeast
Illinois Tuesday evening, resulting in lowering POPs Tuesday
night. Scattered showers will continue into Wednesday as the low
tracks overhead.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday
Models are in good agreement concerning exit of low Wednesday
night, but differ with regards to the timing of a weak cold front
expected to pass through Illinois later this week. ECMWF is
faster, pushing the front to the Indiana border by 00z Fri, while
the GFS lags about 12 hours behind. Due to the large timing
discrepancy, will maintain slight chance POPs Thursday and
Thursday night. After that, upper ridging will take hold across
the Midwest, resulting in warm and dry conditions for Friday and
Saturday. Next weather system is slated to come into the picture
by Sunday, with both the GFS and ECMWF bringing a cold front into
Illinois. Will carry chance POPs at that time accordingly.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
639 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER KS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID SOUTH...THEN
TURN NORTHEAST. INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY WED. NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A THIRD SYSTEM
SLATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. MAIN SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH/COOL FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM LOW TO
WEAK SYSTEM OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. H850 MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LOFTED
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND THE RESULTING SHOWERS EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS
ALBERT LEA MN...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER AT
0745Z. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...DRIER EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
DAMPEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...BUT THE BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR LESSER
RAIN CHANCES IS THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WESTERN KS
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST. THIS IS LESSENING THE FRONTAL FORCING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH.
GRADUALLY TODAY THE FOCUS OF FORCING WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF IOWA WITH
THE TROUGH STRUCTURE OVER NORTHWEST IOWA BASICALLY FALLING APART.
THUS...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN SECTIONS TODAY AND ALL AREAS SEEING LESSENING POP
CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EARLY TODAY THERE IS VIRTUALLY
NO INSTABILITY SO HAVE CUT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TRACE
TO 0.50 INCHES WITH HEAVIER TOTALS NORTHWEST AND WEST. THE
EURO/GEM/GFS AS WELL AS THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS TREND. HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER NORTHWEST UNDER CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS INCREASE ELSEWHERE AND
WITH 10C TO 12C AT H850 AND LIMITED MIXING WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ANOTHER PLEASANTLY WARM DAY IS HEADED FOR THE AREA WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 NORTHWEST AND IN THE MID 70S FROM CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
WITH LOW OVER THE PLAINS DIVING SOUTH...EXPECT TO SEE THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THOUGH THERE MAY BE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUE...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
NOT MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE SYSTEM TODAY AND THE NEXT ONE. FOR
THAT REASON...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH IT. THOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT ON WED NIGHT AND
THU...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE A GREAT DEAL OUT OF IT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE THIRD SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE
MOISTURE WITH IT. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD OVER A
PERIOD OF 36 TO 48 HOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...09/12Z
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON FORCING AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. POCKETS OF MVFR STRATUS ARE
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN THIS AM...AND WILL AFFECT SOME OF THE SITES
FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING..GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR BY
15-17Z. MAIN BAND OF FORCING ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NW IOWA WILL
LOSE STRENGTH THROUGH PERIOD WITH ENERGY TRANSFERRING SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF VCSH AT KFOD AS
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND RAIN/ISO THUNDER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
THREAT FOR MVFR BR AGAIN TOWARD END OF PERIOD AT 10/12Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS JUN 14
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...MS JUN 14
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1107 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF
MORNING FOG AND ANY AFTERNOON WORDING ASSOCIATED WITH EXPECTED SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY. ALSO INGESTED THE LATEST HOURLY OBS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND WIND DATA IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN WHAT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TODAY...
ESPECIALLY AFTER CONSIDERING RECENT PERFORMANCE. ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
JUST A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. THIS ALSO BRINGS GRIDS MORE IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORS THOUGHTS. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED GRIDS TO BRING THEM IN LINE
WITH HOURLY OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
FIRST FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS CYCLE WILL BE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AND CORRESPONDING SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. SECOND WILL BE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM
OUT OF THE PLAINS THAT WILL SEND A WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS. SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE SHORT TERM IS LOWER THAN USUAL.
MODEL/MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE HIGH FOR POPS LATE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE SHORT TERM. TRENDS IN THE HRRR SUGGEST THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY/TN WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES
THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY BUT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD TOGETHER
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME SCT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...SO ONLY
INCLUDED AN ISOLD CHANCE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I75.
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS
SHOOTS UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN APPEARS MUCH
GREATER...BUT BASED ON RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME OF THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE LACKING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
CUTOFF LOW WILL START OUT ACROSS MISSOURI...GRADUALLY DAMPENING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY MERGES INTO A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE
RESIDUAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WILL CONTINUE TO STICK WITH A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS SINCE
TIMING ANY GIVEN PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN.
IN GENERAL...POP CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST OVERALL FORCING AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE FORCING
WILL BE WEAKER...ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS SUCH...WILL
ONLY CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
VLIFR FOG AND IFR TO MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT TO VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-75. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL CLOSER TO DAWN TUESDAY MORNING...WHEN MORE
SUSTAINED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN AND DROP CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
805 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN WHAT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TODAY...
ESPECIALLY AFTER CONSIDERING RECENT PERFORMANCE. ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
JUST A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. THIS ALSO BRINGS GRIDS MORE IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORS THOUGHTS. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED GRIDS TO BRING THEM IN LINE
WITH HOURLY OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
FIRST FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS CYCLE WILL BE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AND CORRESPONDING SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. SECOND WILL BE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM
OUT OF THE PLAINS THAT WILL SEND A WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS. SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE SHORT TERM IS LOWER THAN USUAL.
MODEL/MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE HIGH FOR POPS LATE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE SHORT TERM. TRENDS IN THE HRRR SUGGEST THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY/TN WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES
THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY BUT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD TOGETHER
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME SCT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...SO ONLY
INCLUDED AN ISOLD CHANCE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I75.
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS
SHOOTS UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN APPEARS MUCH
GREATER...BUT BASED ON RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME OF THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE LACKING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
CUTOFF LOW WILL START OUT ACROSS MISSOURI...GRADUALLY DAMPENING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY MERGES INTO A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE
RESIDUAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WILL CONTINUE TO STICK WITH A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS SINCE
TIMING ANY GIVEN PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN.
IN GENERAL...POP CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST OVERALL FORCING AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE FORCING
WILL BE WEAKER...ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS SUCH...WILL
ONLY CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
VLIFR FOG AND IFR TO MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT TO VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-75. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL CLOSER TO DAWN TUESDAY MORNING...WHEN MORE
SUSTAINED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN AND DROP CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
715 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN WHAT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TODAY...
ESPECIALLY AFTER CONSIDERING RECENT PERFORMANCE. ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
JUST A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. THIS ALSO BRINGS GRIDS MORE IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORS THOUGHTS. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED GRIDS TO BRING THEM IN LINE
WITH HOURLY OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
FIRST FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS CYCLE WILL BE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AND CORRESPONDING SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. SECOND WILL BE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM
OUT OF THE PLAINS THAT WILL SEND A WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS. SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE SHORT TERM IS LOWER THAN USUAL.
MODEL/MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE HIGH FOR POPS LATE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE SHORT TERM. TRENDS IN THE HRRR SUGGEST THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY/TN WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES
THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY BUT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD TOGETHER
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME SCT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...SO ONLY
INCLUDED AN ISOLD CHANCE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I75.
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS
SHOOTS UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN APPEARS MUCH
GREATER...BUT BASED ON RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME OF THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE LACKING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
CUTOFF LOW WILL START OUT ACROSS MISSOURI...GRADUALLY DAMPENING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY MERGES INTO A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE
RESIDUAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WILL CONTINUE TO STICK WITH A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS SINCE
TIMING ANY GIVEN PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN.
IN GENERAL...POP CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST OVERALL FORCING AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE FORCING
WILL BE WEAKER...ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS SUCH...WILL
ONLY CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TAFS THIS MORNING. BASED ON OBS AND REGIONAL
SAT PICS IT APPEARS THE LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY IS BEING ERODED A BIT FROM THE WEST. BATTLING THIS ERODING
EFFECT IS A SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH WIND FLOW THAT IS TENDING TO KEEP
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SOCKED IN...ESPECIALLY AT KSJS
WHERE THERE IS A MINOR UPSLOPE EFFECT. AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT
TO TELL IF ONE OR THE OTHER WILL WIN OUT. UNFORTUNATELY GUIDANCE IS
NOT MUCH HELP...AND RECENT UPDATES EVEN APPEAR TO BE FOLLOWING THE
OBS WHICH IS A STRONG INDICATION THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A HANDLE
ON EVENTS. DECIDED BEST ROUTE WAS TO FOLLOW PERSISTENCE UNTIL
DEFINITE TRENDS COULD BE ESTABLISHED. THAT BEING SAID EXPECT A
TENDENCY FOR KJKL AND JSJS TO REMAIN AT MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING UP TO SUNRISE...DUE MAINLY TO
LOWER CIGS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING IN WEST CONCERN WILL BE
FORMATION OF LIST MIST AND CORRESPONDING MVFR CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION...RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD ARRIVE A BIT SOONER
THAN MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY/TN ATTM WILL
WEAKEN ON THE EASTERN FRINGES...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL THIS EVENING. BASED ON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC PREFER A SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION/ONSET ESPECIALLY WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MEANING PRECIPITATION PROCESSES
WILL NOT HAVE TO GO INTO MOISTENING UP A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. LATEST RUNS OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THIS LINE OF THOUGHT...KEEPING THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MORE IN TACT THAN RECENT RUNS. CONTINUED TO CARRY VCSH
AROUND THE MID DAY TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN TERMINALS
WITH STEADY PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1016 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1008 AM EDT MONDAY...SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION AS EVIDENCED BY LATEST SATELLITE PICS. VERY
LITTLE IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION SEEN AT THIS TIME...WITH MOST OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF BTV CWA. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION...STILL EXPECT TO
SEE A FEW POPUP SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GOING POPS OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE STILL LOOKS GOOD. MADE A FEW SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA
THIS MORNING CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
MOVING INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. LATEST NEAR-TERM HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
DACKS AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING THE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST RAP AND
NAM ANALYSIS SHOW SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AROUND AS WELL...SO A
COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL...MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT MONDAY...THERE`S BEEN A BIT OF A SHIFT IN THE
SHORT-TERM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHERE NOW THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE RETREATING SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CONUS WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON LATEST WV IMAGERY AND
RUC40 PVU ANALYSIS MOVING UP THROUGH ILLINOIS/INDIANA AREA.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CONSIDERING HOW POORLY
MODELS TEND TO HANDLE SITUATIONS LIKE THIS...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO
BUMP POPS TO 40-50% FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY EVENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT MONDAY...LOOKING RATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE GULF COAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DIFFER ON THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THE GFS
MODEL IS SLOWER WITH MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ECMWF AND
GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER PENNSYLVANIA AT 12Z MONDAY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
AT 1130Z MONDAY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS REACHED THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME...AS CEILINGS ARE FAIRLY
HIGH AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE...BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME TO
PUT IN THE TAF FORECASTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...INCREASING THREAT FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT MONDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA THIS MORNING CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND MOVING INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. LATEST
NEAR-TERM HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DACKS AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST RAP AND NAM ANALYSIS SHOW SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AROUND AS WELL...SO A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL...MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT MONDAY...THERE`S BEEN A BIT OF A SHIFT IN THE
SHORT-TERM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHERE NOW THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE RETREATING SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CONUS WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON LATEST WV IMAGERY AND
RUC40 PVU ANALYSIS MOVING UP THROUGH ILLINOIS/INDIANA AREA.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CONSIDERING HOW POORLY
MODELS TEND TO HANDLE SITUATIONS LIKE THIS...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO
BUMP POPS TO 40-50% FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY EVENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT MONDAY...LOOKING RATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE GULF COAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DIFFER ON THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THE GFS
MODEL IS SLOWER WITH MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ECMWF AND
GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER PENNSYLVANIA AT 12Z MONDAY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
AT 1130Z MONDAY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS REACHED THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME...AS CEILINGS ARE FAIRLY
HIGH AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE...BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME TO
PUT IN THE TAF FORECASTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...INCREASING THREAT FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT MONDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA THIS MORNING CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND MOVING INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. LATEST
NEAR-TERM HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DACKS AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LATEST RAP AND NAM ANALYSIS SHOW SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AROUND AS WELL...SO A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL...MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT MONDAY...THERE`S BEEN A BIT OF A SHIFT IN THE
SHORT-TERM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHERE NOW THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE RETREATING SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CONUS WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON LATEST WV IMAGERY AND
RUC40 PVU ANALYSIS MOVING UP THROUGH ILLINOIS/INDIANA AREA.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CONSIDERING HOW POORLY
MODELS TEND TO HANDLE SITUATIONS LIKE THIS...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO
BUMP POPS TO 40-50% FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY EVENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT MONDAY...LOOKING RATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE GULF COAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DIFFER ON THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THE GFS
MODEL IS SLOWER WITH MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ECMWF AND
GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER PENNSYLVANIA AT 06Z MONDAY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP 06Z
MONDAY SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE PUT IN A SHOWER IN
VICINITY FOR THE KRUT TAF...BUT GIVEN HIGH CEILINGS OVER THE AREA
AT THIS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE
SURFACE. CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...SO THERE WILL
BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...BUT FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME TO PUT IN THE TAF FORECASTS.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE 06-12Z
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE KMPV/KSLK.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...INCREASING THREAT FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
851 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
Updated forecasts to end the Flash Flood Watch across the Big
Country and to trim pops down across much of the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Overnight complex of showers and thunderstorms has largely cleared
most of West Central Texas as of 1330Z, 830 AM. As this system
pushes completely south of the area, a more stable air mass has
pushed into the area. With the residual moisture and more sunshine
in the afternoon, atmosphere will try to become a little more
unstable again and cant rule out a stray shower or storm
redeveloping, but odds are so small that a slight chance pop should
cover it for now. Updated pretty much all aspects of the forecast
for rest of the afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Large thunderstorm complex was moving into the northern county
warning area at 230 AM. HRRR model indicates the line of
thunderstorms to move to the I-20 corridor 5 to 6 AM...and into the
Concho Valley east to Coleman and Brownwood around 7 to 8 AM. Main
threats will be damaging winds as it moves through the Big Country
early this morning, along with locally heavy rainfall. A flash flood
watch is in effect for the Big Country through 1 PM, but expect most
of the heavy rainfall/flooding potential will be done in the Big
Country by 10 AM. Went categorical for rain chances in the Big
Country, likely in the Concho Valley and Heartland, and chance over
southern counties along the I-10 corridor. Thunderstorms should be
isolated in the Big Country by noon.
Scattered thunderstorms will developed southward as the cold front
moves south today. NAM and GFS models indicate the front to reach
San Angelo and Brownwood around 1 PM and south of I-10 by 6 PM.
Convection from MCS and other storms may make it difficult to pick
out. Some storm may become severe midday and afternoon, as GFS SB
CAPES range from 2000 to 2500 J/KG along and south of a Big
Lake...San Angelo...San Saba line at 1 PM CDT. Kept a slight chance
of storms along the I-10 corridor, and from Mason to San Saba and
Brownwood where there is lingering instability.
Temperatures will be cooler today, mainly in the 80s except for
highs around 90 along the I-10 corridor. Cooler tonight in the upper
50s as skies clear and winds become light.
04
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
The long term remains essentially dry. The NAM and GFS indicate a
broad upper ridge will develop over the region by mid week. In
response to this upper pattern shift, temperatures across West
Central Texas will warm back into the mid to upper 90s mid to late
this week. With weak westerly to northwesterly flow aloft over West
Central Texas by Wednesday evening, thunderstorms which develop to
the west and northwest could move into our counties. The GFS is more
aggressive with this scenario than the NAM. Given the possibility
for this to occur, continuing slight chance PoPs for mainly the
northwestern half of West Central Texas for Wednesday evening looks
reasonable. Otherwise, a dry forecast dominates the long term, with
afternoon highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s and lows mainly in
the 70 to 75 range.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 84 59 87 67 96 / 20 5 5 5 10
San Angelo 84 64 89 67 97 / 20 10 5 5 5
Junction 90 69 91 68 93 / 80 20 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
649 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS
MORNING...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS EASTERN AREAS
BEFORE 16Z. OTHERWISE VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA AREA AOA 14Z...AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
FOR THEM. CAP MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH OVER THE KVCT TERMINAL FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A VCTS AS MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY NORTH. ELSEWHERE NO CONVECTION MENTIONED
THROUGH 10/01Z...WITH FORECAST WINDS SIMILAR TO 06Z TERMINAL
FORECAST. AFTER 06Z...AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH
WEAKER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND COULD EVEN HAVE SOME
LIGHT FOG IN THE KALI AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
WILL BE KVCT AREA...AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO THUNDER THERE AFTER
06Z. ELSEWHERE...THINK ACTIVITY TOO QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME TO
WARRANT A TEMPO AND/OR PROB30 SO FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS
BEFORE 07Z AT KLRD AND AROUND 09Z AT KCRP/KALI.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS IS NOT CLEAR-CUT AS WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN TODAY AND ONLY DECREASE TO BELOW 10C
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY OVER THE NE 06Z...THEN EASTERN AREAS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. WITH MODELS FORECASTING UPPER JET DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THINK BEST SEVERE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF AREA TODAY...WITH TONIGHT ALL DEPENDING ON WHETHER
CONVECTION DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THIS EVENING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF THE HIGHER CAPES/INSTABILITY AND INFLOW (LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT AND STORM INFLOW NOT IMPRESSIVE). THUS...WILL LIKELY NEED
SOME MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES (E.G. RISE/FALL COUPLET TO ENHANCE STORM
INFLOW) TO GET SEVERE THREAT BETTER FOR TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION MOST AREAS...WITH CHANCE POPS
VICTORIA AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST SYNOPTIC MODELS (ESPECIALLY
ECMWF AND CANADIAN) ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE AREA DEVELOPING AND
MOVING TOWARD THE COAST 06Z-12Z (BASED ON QPF)...SO WILL BITE ON
THIS AND INCREASE POPS MOST EASTERN AREAS. WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE
FOR NOW...BUT LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE GIVEN THAT PERIOD 1 CONCERN IS
RATHER LOW AND PERIOD 2 CONCERN IS QUESTIONABLE (DEPENDS ON
MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES). CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY WILL BE EASTERN AREAS
AND LIKELY ONLY IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. GOING WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE EAST AND LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WEST TODAY BASED ON
PREVIOUS MODEL PERFORMANCE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...
GOING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS AM EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION
COMING IN OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME (IF NOT IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT). WITH UNCERTAINTY FOR
TONIGHT...AM GOING TO STAY CLOSER TO CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY.
MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WILL MAINTAIN LOW-END SCA TIL 10
AM AS CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE...WITH RUC13 AND AVN-MOS SHOWING
SCA CONDITIONS BUT NAM NOT DOING SO (SYNOPTIC MODELS COME VERY
CLOSE). WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH BOUNDARY NORTH
OF THE WATERS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE FEW STRONG STORMS
OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTING OUT BY ONSET OF LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOULD HAVE ENDED PRECIP
CHANCES BEFORE TUESDAY NIGHT SO LOOKING AT A VERY DRY FORECAST
PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES COME CLOSE TO THE AREA
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH THIS AS WELL. THUS...MAINLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEK AFTER THE MON/TUES ACTIVITY. WILL SEE 850
TEMPS INCREASING GRADUALLY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SFC TEMPS. ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON
TEMPS...THURSDAY 850 TEMPS COULD BE IN THE 25-28 DEGREE RANGE WEST.
WAS A BIT LEARY OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WEST THURSDAY WITH LRD`S
INABILITY TO REACH 100 THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT IF 850 TEMPS DO
REACH THESE LEVELS SHOULD WARM NICELY. STILL GOING SLIGHTLY BELOW
SOME GUIDANCE VALUES. WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD SEE A BIT
MORE CLOUDINESS EAST TO KEEP TEMPS THERE FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.
TEMPS GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED INTO PARTS OF TEXAS...BUT AS IS TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WOULD EXPECT IT TO STALL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 95 75 92 76 95 / 10 40 40 10 10
VICTORIA 92 73 90 74 92 / 30 50 30 10 10
LAREDO 100 79 100 77 102 / 10 30 10 10 10
ALICE 96 74 95 73 95 / 10 40 30 10 10
ROCKPORT 91 78 89 79 91 / 20 40 40 10 10
COTULLA 99 73 98 75 101 / 20 30 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 95 74 93 75 94 / 10 30 30 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 91 77 89 79 91 / 10 40 40 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
627 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS IF IT WILL RAIN TODAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...AN UPPER
LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THIS LATTER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...RAP TROPOPAUSE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A 100-130 KT
UPPER JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN MN. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM THIS JET STREAK...
COMBINED WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE THAT STRETCHES
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MN AS SEEN IN PROFILER AND VWP
DATA...HAS HELPED SUPPORT SHOWERS WITHIN THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. SOME
OF THE RAIN HAS HAD A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND IN SOUTHWEST MN
DUE TO EXTENSIVE DRY AIR BELOW 600MB SEEN ON THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING.
IN FACT...THE 700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ON THAT SOUNDING WAS 30C!
THIS DRY AIRMASS EXTENDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS ALSO
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SOME HIGH CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS HAS SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING TO PREVENT WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE
A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. STILL...READINGS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE 50S WITH THE COLD SPOTS IN WISCONSIN IN THE MID 40S.
THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IF ANY OF THAT SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST CAN MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
FRONTOGENESIS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER JET STREAK APPEAR TO BE
THE STRONG DRIVING FORCES FOR THE PRECIPITATION. THAT UPPER JET
STREAK IS PROGGED TO GET PUSHED EAST TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...REALLY ONLY THIS MORNING DO WE HAVE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING. MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO FALL APART THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING TREND FROM THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS...PLUS
THE EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN PLACE...REALLY MAKES IT QUESTIONABLE IF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. THE 09.00Z NAM HAS TRENDED
DRAMATICALLY DRIER COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND NOW ONLY
SKIRTS A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTH CENTRAL WI WITH SOME
RAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 09.00Z GFS AND 09.02-05Z HRRR
ARE VERY SIMILAR. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FALLS IN-LINE WITH THESE
MODEL SCENARIOS AND SEEMS REASONABLE.
A DECENT TEMPERATURE CONTRAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...RESULTING FROM
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER 925MB TEMPS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF COMPARED
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF. READINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 70 SAY IN
ROCHESTER AND MEDFORD...WHILE BOSCOBEL COULD MAKE A RUN TOWARDS 80.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY MAINTAINING CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE. THIS SETUP WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME MID
CLOUDS LOOK LIKELY TO LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP THERE...BUT TO THE NORTH...SITES LIKE
BLACK RIVER FALLS COULD DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND DURING THE WEEKEND.
MUCH OF THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW
TRACKING THROUGH MISSOURI ON TUESDAY...AND THEN PULLED NORTHEAST
TOWARDS CHICAGO ON WEDNESDAY BY THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...BUT AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW FROM THE
09.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF...IT APPEARS THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WI...RESULTING MAINLY FROM DIURNAL INSTABILITY. 09.00Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN/NAM/GFS ALL SHOW SOME CONVECTION...THOUGH THE GFS
IS LIKELY TOO ROBUST WITH ITS QPF COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS
WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH MID CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
START CLEARING WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREAS LONGITUDE. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING
OUT BETWEEN 16-18C ON TUESDAY SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. THESE
WARM TOWARDS 20C ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN...SUGGESTING WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO POP UP INTO THE LOW 80S AT MANY LOCATIONS THEN.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...MODEL QPF HAS INCREASED...
PRIMARILY IN THE 06-18Z THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. STILL...THERE ARE BOTH
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MOST
NOTABLY BETWEEN THE 09.00Z CANADIAN AND GFS. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT THE STRONGER TROUGH...BUT KEPT THEM
BELOW 60 FOR NOW SINCE THE STRONGER FORCING OVERALL LOOKS TO TAKE
PLACE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE STRONGER TROUGH...A
BREEZY THURSDAY IS LOOKING LIKELY...AND COULD BE DOWN RIGHT WINDY IF
THE MOST WOUND UP CANADIAN IS RIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANY
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TO 14-16C.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS
THAT UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...YIELDING MAINLY DRY AND
RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS. THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO AN UPPER TROUGH
PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE TRENDED FOR THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TO HOLD IN PLACE LONGER...CAUSING MORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH TO STALL OR DEFLECT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOME FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WHAT LOOKS TO BE A WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED -SHRA ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN. WILL CONTINUE VCSH AT
KRST THROUGH 20Z TODAY WHILE KLSE SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE WITH
BULK OF ISOLATED -SHRA STAYING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. PLAN ON
MID-LEVEL/ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 7KFT TO LINGER
THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
THE STAGE AT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA IS BEING MONITORED
CLOSELY AS THE RIVER IS GETTING CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE. AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE STAGE WAS AT 11.82 FT...ONLY 0.18 FT BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THE RIVER ALSO APPEARS TO BE GETTING CLOSE TO CRESTING.
ITS LIKELY THE CREST WILL BE A LONG PLATEAU NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
901 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2014
.Synopsis...
Hot weather will continue across the region today with more
significant cooling expected to hold off until mid-week. Dry
conditions along with periods of locally breezy north winds will
result in critical fire danger. A slight chance of late day
thunderstorms will be possible over the Coast Range today, then in
the Sierra Nevada south of Lake Tahoe on Tuesday.
&&
.Discussion...
High pressure will bring another day of heat today, even hotter
than what we saw on Sunday. Current Valley forecast highs are
generally 2 to 4 degrees above the records for the date, so it is
likely we will see some daily records fall this afternoon.
North winds and very low humidity continue to bring critical fire
conditions to the northern and the western central Sacramento
Valley as well as adjacent foothills. The northeast foothills and
far northern Sierra will see decreasing fire danger as winds drop
off this morning so the Red Flag will end there at 11 am. The
remaining areas will continue in a Red Flag until 5 pm Tuesday as
northerly winds and dry conditions remain an issue.
A weak upper low will pass to the south later this afternoon.
Moisture may be just enough when coupled with instability from
daytime heating to produce a few afternoon showers/thunderstorms
over the Coastal Mountains west of Red Bluff, affecting the area
around Saddle Camp. Sierra shower/thunderstorm activity should be
generally from Yosemite NP southward. HRRR mesoscale model is
showing very little in the way of convection so far so not
expecting much. will Most of interior northern California will
remain dry.
Forecast looks on track, no updates necessary. EK
.Previous Discussion...Strong high pressure remains over NorCal
while a weak low is developing off the coast of central
California. Skies are clear across the region early this morning
and coastal stratus extends mainly from Monterey Bay southward.
Temperatures across the area are a little warmer in most areas and
range from the mid 60s to mid 70s through much of the valley while
the thermal belt areas are in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Hot weather will continue today. Triple digit heat is expected
across the valley again with highs ranging from 102 to 108. Record
highs will be within reach across much of the region.
Periods of locally breezy north winds are expected again today,
especially over the northern Sacramento Valley where tighter
surface pressure gradients will linger. Hot temperatures, breezy
winds, and dry conditions will work together to continue critical
fire danger. The fire danger will remain elevated through at least
Tuesday.
An upper level low will approach the Central California coast
later today and may bring enough moisture and instability for a
few thunderstorms over the Coast Range north of Lake County.
Appears better lift with the low will be south of the area, so
deep convection will likely depend on strong daytime heating to
initiate.
A modest cooling trend will begin on Tuesday as a broad upper
trough moves over the West Coast. The delta and southern
Sacramento Valley may begin to see a gradual return of the delta
breeze. More significant cooling will wait until mid- week as a
deeper trough moves into the PacNW.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
No significant changes to extended forecast. Models continue to
show a broad trough over NorCal into Wednesday with highs
several degrees above normal. A stronger shortwave trough will
move through the Pacific Northwest Thursday into Friday.
California will likely stay dry as moisture and lift remain well
to our north. However, temperatures will continue to cool to more
seasonal levels late next week as onshore flow strengthens.
Dang/jbb
&&
.Aviation...
Generally VFR with very isolated thunderstorm activity this
afternoon over the Coastal Range. North winds gusting to 20 kt
over the northern Sacramento Valley today, generally light winds
5-10 kt elsewhere. EK
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
red flag warning until 11 am pdt this morning northeast
foothills/sacramento valley...western plumas county/lassen park.
red flag warning until 5 pm pdt tuesday central sacramento
valley...clear lake/southern lake county...mountains
southwestern shasta county to northern lake county...northern
sacramento valley...shasta lake area / northern shasta county.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
336 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASED GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR...THERE IS DECENT MLCAPES
NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND IMPRESSIVE DCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1400 J/KG. THEREFORE ANY DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS FOCUSED FROM A
REMNANT MORNING MCV OUTFLOW WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL. SOME STRONG DEVELOPMENT AND
ISOLATED SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS VARIATION AMONG HI-RES SOLUTIONS WITH EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN SUGGESTING A LINE
OF STORMS PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 06Z...THOUGH FEEL THIS IS A BIT
OVERDONE AND MAY JUST BE A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE TRACKING NEWD. HAVE
ONLY TRENDED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH HIGHEST IN THE NW AND SLIGHT
FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
TRENDS AS THIS COULD BE INCREASED.
AS FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MAINLY WEST OF THE STATE...WE CANNOT LET
OUR GUARD DOWN ON HIGHER QPF VALUES POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NW
PORTION OF THE AREA...JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
INCREASE THE THREAT AS WE ARE ON EDGE OF BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHER
PWATS EAST OF THE TROUGH. HPC GUIDANCE HAS 48-HR TOTALS UPWARDS OF
2-2.5 INCHES IN THE FAR NW...BUT THIS SEEMS TOO BULLISH AND WITHOUT
MUCH CONSISTENCY SO WENT WITH GENERAL BLEND THAT HAS LOWER AMOUNT
OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS NW FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER POPS SOUTHEAST AS SWATH OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPC HAS NW GA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TUESDAY...BUT FEEL THAT WILL BE FIGHTING THE BALANCE BETWEEN
LINGERING CLOUD COVER/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WITH MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. DECENT PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES AGAIN NEAR 2000
J/KG FARTHER SOUTHEAST SO THREAT MAY END UP BEING SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON AND OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT RISK AREA.
BAKER
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS STILL INDICATING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE CWFA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN DECENT. IF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM COMES THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER IN
THE DAY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IF THE
SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH DURING PRIME HEATING...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
MODELS ARE STILL PROGGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN OPEN LOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD ALSO
SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.
IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND HAS TURNED ZONAL.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF INDICATE THAT A 500MB TROUGH
WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WOULD MEAN
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED UNTIL THE FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MOST SITES AND COULD BE LOWER FOR KCSG. CIGS SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE IN 4-5 KFT ZONE WITH SOME POSSIBLE SCATTERING OUT
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY SW AT 10 KTS OR LESS BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW END GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR KATL. MAGNITUDES
SHOULD DECREASE TO 3-7 KTS OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO NEAR 10 KTS AND
LOW END GUSTS TUESDAY. BEST -TSRA CHANCES STAY FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO EXCEPT FOR
NEAR KATL BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY. PROB30 FOR RETURNING
-TSRA CHANCES AFTER 19Z TUESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON PRECIP CHANCES AND MORNING CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 92 69 87 / 20 30 30 60
ATLANTA 71 87 70 84 / 30 40 30 60
BLAIRSVILLE 63 82 64 79 / 30 40 50 60
CARTERSVILLE 68 86 68 83 / 30 50 50 60
COLUMBUS 72 89 71 86 / 20 30 30 60
GAINESVILLE 69 87 69 83 / 30 40 40 60
MACON 70 92 69 88 / 20 30 20 60
ROME 67 86 69 83 / 40 60 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 68 87 68 84 / 30 40 30 60
VIDALIA 73 93 73 90 / 30 30 20 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
302 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
301 PM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL WAVES ARE
FOUND FROM OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH ARE MOVING EASTWARD.
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW IS A SOUTHWESTERLY STREAM OF MOIST FLOW
WHICH IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO NORTHERN
OHIO. TO THE NORTHWEST...A TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALBERTA WITH SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LINED UP TO THE WEST OVER THE
PACIFIC. IN ADDITION...A BROAD LOW IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND THIS CUTOFF
WILL INTERACT LATER IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND OVER THE CONUS
AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOCALLY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM QUEBEC BACK ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA ON ITS
SOUTHWEST FLANK. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER LOW IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ALBERTA.
TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FLUX...THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA INLAND OF THE
LAKE. RADAR SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WHICH ARE MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
FADE WITH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR ROGUE SHOWER IN THE
FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION REMAINS SLOW. EXPECT THAT TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BROAD
SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BUT THIS LOOKS WEAK
AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY THERMAL ADVECTION TO PROVIDE ADDED
SUPPORT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE TROUBLE
HANDLING THE PRECIP TRENDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY DUE IN
PART TO THE HANDLING OF DRIER AIR ENTRAINED FROM THE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER LOW AND A DRY SLOT WRAPPING
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST FORCING WILL PUSH NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LIKELY REACHING SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING
BUT TAKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVEN EARLY EVENING TO REACH AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THEN IT BECOMES A MATTER OF
HOW WELL ORGANIZED RAIN REMAINS AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS BY
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SO FORCING WOULD
PRESUMABLY WEAKEN LEADING TO A DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FORCING DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATE IN THE
DAY. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS BETTER
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES IN AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOTAL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
AIR AT VARIOUS TIMES AND THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF BEST ORGANIZED
FORCING. THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVERALL WITH A BROADER AREA AFFECTED BY MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE NORTHWEST CWA LOOKS TO
RECEIVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN. HIGHS TUESDAY MAY BE COOLEST SOUTH
PROVIDED RAIN STARTS IN THE MORNING...WITH NORTHERN AREAS REMAINING
DRY ENOUGH TO WARM UP...POTENTIALLY TO NEAR THE HIGHS OF TODAY. THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OFF THE LAKE SO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WEDNESDAY
AND LIKELY BE PRECIP DEPENDENT. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO IF PRECIP REMAINS SCATTERED AND
EVEN ENDS LATER IN THE DAY THEN HIGHS MAY WELL REBOUND INTO THE MID
OR EVEN UPPER 70S...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ONCE
AGAIN.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND THEN
LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO TAKING A SURFACE LOW WITH IT. A
COOL FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW AND BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA SOME
TIME THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF PHASING WITH
A WEAK TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...WHICH WILL BE WHATS LEFT OF
THE CUTOFF OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS MAY YIELD A BETTER PRECIP
CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS VARIED ON THE DETAILS BUT WITH
THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND TRACKING NORTHEAST THE FRONT WOULD
LIKELY BE PRETTY STRETCHED OUT SUPPORTING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MAY PHASE
WITH ENERGY EJECTING FROM A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWING A DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A STEADY WARMING TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY TO THE LOWER
80S BY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED...THOUGH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER FRIDAY AND TO A LESSER DEGREE SATURDAY.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* NONE.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED QUIET AND RELATIVELY UNCHANGING WEATHER AT THE AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY
HAVE A SLIGHT DIURNAL COMPONENT...PICKUP UP TO AROUND 10 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND DIPPING BACK DOWN
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME VARIABILITY FROM THE NORTH TO
THE EAST DUE TO THE OVERALL LIGHT MAGNITUDE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
LOWER LATER IN THE PERIOD MAINLY FOR THE 30HR ORD FCST AS AN UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARDS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BUT THIS IS EXPECTED BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
219 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS
WILL GENERICALLY BE 10-15 KT BUT WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PASSES TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH THURSDAY AND THEN TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS BECOME EAST AGAIN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY AND WINDS BECOME
SOUTH AND REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
Shower chances will highlight this forecast, as a long wave trough
slowly advances from the Plains across the mid-Mississippi River
Valley through Wednesday night. A fast moving front will increase
shower chances again later Thursday and Thursday night before high
pressure provides a break from the rain through much of next
weekend.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night.
Satellite and radar images show a well-defined low pressure system
moving across S Kansas/N Oklahoma. An elongated region of
isentropic lift ahead of the low is creating enhanced mid level
cloud cover as far east as Ohio, which includes the southern half
of Illinois. Radar returns over our southern counties is not
reaching the ground due to a dry sub-cloud airmass. Gradual
saturation of the boundary layer will continue this evening, with
showers becoming likely after midnight south of Springfield to
Mattoon. The HRRR and NCEP 4km WRF show a band of showers/storms
affecting our southern counties after midnight tonight, so we
bumped up PoPs to categorical in the southern third of our
forecast area late tonight. It appears the band will progress
northward on Tuesday with a dry period developing from south to
north behind the band. There should be enough residual moisture
that a couple of additional showers could develop during the day
even where rain may end for a time in the morning. We tried to add
some detail to the PoPs on Tuesday to follow that band of rain
with categorical PoPs, and likely PoPs bordering the band.
The occluded low is projected to move into southern IL Tuesday
night, with waves of dry air wrapped into the low. That should
help to limit showers in the southeast half of our forecast area
later Tuesday night as diurnal stabilization helps decrease
updrafts. The coverage and timing of precip Tues night remains
problematic directly under the low center, but likely PoPs were
left over a majority of the area for now.
Wednesday will see showery precip linger in at least the eastern
half of IL as the low pressure system begins to depart into
Indiana. The trough axis is projected to reach the Indiana border
toward 00z/7pm, so subsidence should become more prominent west of
I-55 as the day progresses.
Wed night and Thursday could end up being a dry period before a
cold front triggers the next round of showers/storms later Thurs
afternoon and Thur night. Ridging is projected to develop during
Wed night and Thursday with somewhat drier and warmer air. Thursdays
highs may even have enough help from sunshine to reach the low
80s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday.
Dry and warmer weather is forecast for Friday into Sunday as an
upper level ridge and surface high pressure take control of the
weather in the region. Highs may remain in the upper 70s Friday
but should warm to the low 80s Sat and Sunday. A weather
disturbance previously indicated for Sunday in yesterdays models
has been delayed by both of today`s 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF.
Increasing chances of rain/storms appears in both of those models
starting Sunday night west of I-55 and expanding eastward on
Monday. Chance PoPs were included in both those periods to account
for the trends in model consensus.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 105 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
Not much of a shift in the forecast. Holding off on the mention of
precip until VCSH after 06z, then predominant in the morning.
Until then, VFR, though some very isolated showers will remain a
threat through the afternoon with cu field, but confidence not
high enough to put in any of the terminals until more apparent. Sct
cu, bkn high. Easterly winds through the pd. With the actual
developing system to the SW, dropping the category tomorrow
morning when a boundary associated with that low moves nwd over
the region bringing the better chance for widespread precip.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
220 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
207 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY...AS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PERSISTS AND PROVIDES A LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE CWFA. EARLY THIS MORNING IR IMAGERY
INDICATES A CIRRUS SHIELD OVERHEAD LIFTING NORTHEAST. JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK THE WESTERN CWFA MAY HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS
TO FURTHER RADIATE TO ARND 50 OR POSSIBLY UPR 40S. ELSEWHERE THE
CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW THE RATE OF COOLING...WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S. BETTER LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI
STRETCHING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN IL/IN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
60S. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY FROM
LIFTING NORTH. WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY TEMPS SHUD WARM A
FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY...REACHING INTO THE MID/UPR 70S. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN E/NE AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH BEYOND THE MID 60S.
A WEAK MID-LVL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS SLIDES EAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...WHICH SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST
WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LGT PRECIP
TONIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT LLVL EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A DRY NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT. SO
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT IN THE
MID/UPR 50S. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS ARND 60
AS THE MOIST BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MID-LVL TROUGH QUICKLY DEPARTS EAST TO QUEBEC...WITH THE NEAR SFC
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO BACK-OFF ON THE TIMING OF MOISTURE FOR TUE...WITH
HI-RES LOCAL ARW8KM POINTING TOWARDS THE BULK OF TUE REMAINING DRY.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN CWFA...HOWEVER THIS HAS BEGUN TO TREND
TOWARDS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY. HAVE OPTED TO PULL BACK TO DRY FOR
THE NORTHERN TIER...AND CHC POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS UNTIL
MIDDAY TUE. THEN AS THE AFTN/EVE PROGRESSES...THE SHORTWAVE SHUD
DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AND PUSH THE MOISTURE COVERAGE NORTH ALONG
WITH LIKELY POPS MORE FOCUSED LATE TUE NGT/WED MORNING. QPF WILL
LIKELY BE CHALLENGING AS SOME DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE SEEPING INTO
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND COULD REDUCE THE
VOLUME OF PRECIP THAT IS PRODUCED TUE NGT-WED. HAVE TRIMMED BACK
SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE PRECIP TOTALS IN THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL.
THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OPENING BACK UP MIDDAY WED AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN IN WITH A CHANNEL OF
SFC RIDGING DEVELOPING ON THE HEELS OF THE WAVE. THIS SHUD HELP TO
DRY THE REGION BACK OUT BRIEFLY WED NGT/EARLY THUR...BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE MIDDAY THUR WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR
PRECIP.
TEMPS TUE/WED WILL HINGE ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. AT THIS TIME WITH
THE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS ON TUE...HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW 70S NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH. WITH A NE
WIND...AREAS ADJACENT TO THE LAKE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S. WED
WILL GENERALLY FEATURE 70S WITH POSSIBLY REACHING 80 DEGREES THUR AS
FLOW QUICKLY TURNS S/SW.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE...LOW.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...MEDIUM.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY FEATURE A DEPARTING MID-LVL TROUGH
FOR THE GREAT LAKES...AS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST RIDGING AND
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE
WITH THE LONGWAVE FLOW REMAINING MORE FLAT...THEN HEIGHTS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME
CONSISTENCY WITH SFC RIDGING ARRIVING FRI AND HOLDING THRU SAT NGT.
WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WARMING TO ARND 80/LOW
80S SAT. THEN DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
PROGGED FOR SUN...TEMPS COULD EASILY WARM WELL INTO THE 80S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NONE.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED QUIET AND RELATIVELY UNCHANGING WEATHER AT THE AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY
HAVE A SLIGHT DIURNAL COMPONENT...PICKUP UP TO AROUND 10 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND DIPPING BACK DOWN
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME VARIABILITY FROM THE NORTH TO
THE EAST DUE TO THE OVERALL LIGHT MAGNITUDE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
LOWER LATER IN THE PERIOD MAINLY FOR THE 30HR ORD FCST AS AN UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARDS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BUT THIS IS EXPECTED BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
219 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS
WILL GENERICALLY BE 10-15 KT BUT WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PASSES TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH THURSDAY AND THEN TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS BECOME EAST AGAIN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY AND WINDS BECOME
SOUTH AND REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
117 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1036 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
Caught between high pressure ridge building in from the north and
a developing storm system out over the High Plains this morning.
Plenty of cloud cover to the south and some very isolated returns
on radar to the SE not amounting to much in the way of rainfall.
CU rule pointing to the development of cu this afternoon, but the
models have drastically overdone the available moisture in the
boundary layer, per 12z ILX sounding. Some isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible, particularly in the south as moisture
advects in. However, the HRRR is reflecting dry through 00z with a
better handle on the lack of moisture, so will keep higher chances
out of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 105 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
Not much of a shift in the forecast. Holding off on the mention of
precip until VCSH after 06z, then predominant in the morning.
Until then, VFR, though some very isolated showers will remain a
threat through the afternoon with cu field, but confidence not
high enough to put in any of the terminals until more apparent. Sct
cu, bkn high. Easterly winds through the pd. With the actual
developing system to the SW, dropping the category tomorrow
morning when a boundary associated with that low moves nwd over
the region bringing the better chance for widespread precip.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday
Main forecast challenge continues to be timing of an approaching
upper low and how much rainfall it will produce across central
Illinois. 07z/2am water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave
over eastern Colorado. As has been advertised for the past several
days, this feature is expected to close off over Kansas this
morning, then slowly track E/NE into Illinois by Wednesday. 00z
Jun 9 models continue to show this basic process, but have
significantly slowed the onset of precipitation across the KILX
CWA. Thanks in part to a dry E/NE low-level flow around high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes, it now appears today will
be a dry day across the area. The only possible exception will be
the far SE CWA south of I-70, where isolated showers may occur
well north of a stalled frontal boundary. Skies will be partly to
mostly sunny, with a gradual increase in cloud cover noted later
in the day. High temperatures will climb into the middle to upper
70s.
Closed 500mb low will track from southern Kansas to southwestern
Missouri by 12z Tue, gradually spreading precip northward into
central Illinois. Models have all slowed the precip, with the NAM
suggesting rain may not reach as far north as the I-72 corridor
until Tuesday afternoon. GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all a bit faster, so
will trend toward the model consensus for this forecast package.
Have therefore reduced POPs considerably for tonight, with likely
POPs now confined to areas along/south of I-70 only. Further
north, will go dry during the evening along/north of I-74, with
low chance POPs arriving after midnight.
Tuesday into Tuesday night now appears to be the most favored time
frame for significant precipitation. While surface dewpoints rise
into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees and precipitable water
values reach the 1.50 to 1.75 range, models are suggesting the
heaviest rainfall may develop from Louisiana/Arkansas northeastward
into the Ohio River Valley. As a result, have reduced overall QPF
expected from this event. Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 1.50
can be expected along/east of the Illinois River, with less than 1
inch further northwest toward Galesburg. Due to thick cloud cover
and off-and-on showers/thunder, high temps on Tuesday will be held
in the upper 60s and lower 70s in most locations. Mid-level dry
slot may tend to work its way into east-central and southeast
Illinois Tuesday evening, resulting in lowering POPs Tuesday
night. Scattered showers will continue into Wednesday as the low
tracks overhead.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday
Models are in good agreement concerning exit of low Wednesday
night, but differ with regards to the timing of a weak cold front
expected to pass through Illinois later this week. ECMWF is
faster, pushing the front to the Indiana border by 00z Fri, while
the GFS lags about 12 hours behind. Due to the large timing
discrepancy, will maintain slight chance POPs Thursday and
Thursday night. After that, upper ridging will take hold across
the Midwest, resulting in warm and dry conditions for Friday and
Saturday. Next weather system is slated to come into the picture
by Sunday, with both the GFS and ECMWF bringing a cold front into
Illinois. Will carry chance POPs at that time accordingly.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1103 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
207 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY...AS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PERSISTS AND PROVIDES A LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE CWFA. EARLY THIS MORNING IR IMAGERY
INDICATES A CIRRUS SHIELD OVERHEAD LIFTING NORTHEAST. JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK THE WESTERN CWFA MAY HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS
TO FURTHER RADIATE TO ARND 50 OR POSSIBLY UPR 40S. ELSEWHERE THE
CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW THE RATE OF COOLING...WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S. BETTER LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI
STRETCHING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN IL/IN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
60S. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY FROM
LIFTING NORTH. WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY TEMPS SHUD WARM A
FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY...REACHING INTO THE MID/UPR 70S. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN E/NE AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH BEYOND THE MID 60S.
A WEAK MID-LVL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS SLIDES EAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...WHICH SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST
WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LGT PRECIP
TONIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT LLVL EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A DRY NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT. SO
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT IN THE
MID/UPR 50S. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS ARND 60
AS THE MOIST BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MID-LVL TROUGH QUICKLY DEPARTS EAST TO QUEBEC...WITH THE NEAR SFC
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO BACK-OFF ON THE TIMING OF MOISTURE FOR TUE...WITH
HI-RES LOCAL ARW8KM POINTING TOWARDS THE BULK OF TUE REMAINING DRY.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN CWFA...HOWEVER THIS HAS BEGUN TO TREND
TOWARDS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY. HAVE OPTED TO PULL BACK TO DRY FOR
THE NORTHERN TIER...AND CHC POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS UNTIL
MIDDAY TUE. THEN AS THE AFTN/EVE PROGRESSES...THE SHORTWAVE SHUD
DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AND PUSH THE MOISTURE COVERAGE NORTH ALONG
WITH LIKELY POPS MORE FOCUSED LATE TUE NGT/WED MORNING. QPF WILL
LIKELY BE CHALLENGING AS SOME DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE SEEPING INTO
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND COULD REDUCE THE
VOLUME OF PRECIP THAT IS PRODUCED TUE NGT-WED. HAVE TRIMMED BACK
SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE PRECIP TOTALS IN THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL.
THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OPENING BACK UP MIDDAY WED AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN IN WITH A CHANNEL OF
SFC RIDGING DEVELOPING ON THE HEELS OF THE WAVE. THIS SHUD HELP TO
DRY THE REGION BACK OUT BRIEFLY WED NGT/EARLY THUR...BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE MIDDAY THUR WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR
PRECIP.
TEMPS TUE/WED WILL HINGE ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. AT THIS TIME WITH
THE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS ON TUE...HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW 70S NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH. WITH A NE
WIND...AREAS ADJACENT TO THE LAKE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S. WED
WILL GENERALLY FEATURE 70S WITH POSSIBLY REACHING 80 DEGREES THUR AS
FLOW QUICKLY TURNS S/SW.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE...LOW.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...MEDIUM.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY FEATURE A DEPARTING MID-LVL TROUGH
FOR THE GREAT LAKES...AS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST RIDGING AND
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE
WITH THE LONGWAVE FLOW REMAINING MORE FLAT...THEN HEIGHTS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME
CONSISTENCY WITH SFC RIDGING ARRIVING FRI AND HOLDING THRU SAT NGT.
WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WARMING TO ARND 80/LOW
80S SAT. THEN DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
PROGGED FOR SUN...TEMPS COULD EASILY WARM WELL INTO THE 80S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NONE.
RODRIGUEZ/DEUBELBEISS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MORE DENSE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS AND EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
TODAY. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THIS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THEN ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST TRACKS TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS. PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT EXPECT THE TERMINALS TO REMAIN DRY.
NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE
HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
RODRIGUEZ/DEUBELBEISS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
202 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPANNING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
SPEEDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOST OF THE LAKE.
ALTHOUGH...TIGHTER GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE IS
HELPING FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT
RANGE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND BACK TOWARDS THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE IS OBSERVED THROUGH MID DAY. GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE WILL ONCE AGAIN TIGHTEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A TREND BACK TOWARDS THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
LIKELY. GENERALLY LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LAKE THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MORE
TOWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1036 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
Caught between high pressure ridge building in from the north and
a developing storm system out over the High Plains this morning.
Plenty of cloud cover to the south and some very isolated returns
on radar to the SE not amounting to much in the way of rainfall.
CU rule pointing to the development of cu this afternoon, but the
models have drastically overdone the available moisture in the
boundary layer, per 12z ILX sounding. Some isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible, particularly in the south as moisture
advects in. However, the HRRR is reflecting dry through 00z with a
better handle on the lack of moisture, so will keep higher chances
out of the forecast.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 702 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
clouds will be the rule this morning, but some scatter CU will
develop later this morning and continue into the afternoon hours.
Some models are bringing in some light showers into the sites this
afternoon, but confidence is low. So will not have any mention of
pcpn. Scattered CU will continue in the evening and overnight
hours as well. Models have really slowed the onset of steady pcpn
getting into the area, so will not have any mention of pcpn next
24hrs. Now looks like it will be after end of TAF period. Winds
will be northeast to start and then become southeast later this
morning, and then back to east-northeast overnight.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday
Main forecast challenge continues to be timing of an approaching
upper low and how much rainfall it will produce across central
Illinois. 07z/2am water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave
over eastern Colorado. As has been advertised for the past several
days, this feature is expected to close off over Kansas this
morning, then slowly track E/NE into Illinois by Wednesday. 00z
Jun 9 models continue to show this basic process, but have
significantly slowed the onset of precipitation across the KILX
CWA. Thanks in part to a dry E/NE low-level flow around high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes, it now appears today will
be a dry day across the area. The only possible exception will be
the far SE CWA south of I-70, where isolated showers may occur
well north of a stalled frontal boundary. Skies will be partly to
mostly sunny, with a gradual increase in cloud cover noted later
in the day. High temperatures will climb into the middle to upper
70s.
Closed 500mb low will track from southern Kansas to southwestern
Missouri by 12z Tue, gradually spreading precip northward into
central Illinois. Models have all slowed the precip, with the NAM
suggesting rain may not reach as far north as the I-72 corridor
until Tuesday afternoon. GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all a bit faster, so
will trend toward the model consensus for this forecast package.
Have therefore reduced POPs considerably for tonight, with likely
POPs now confined to areas along/south of I-70 only. Further
north, will go dry during the evening along/north of I-74, with
low chance POPs arriving after midnight.
Tuesday into Tuesday night now appears to be the most favored time
frame for significant precipitation. While surface dewpoints rise
into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees and precipitable water
values reach the 1.50 to 1.75 range, models are suggesting the
heaviest rainfall may develop from Louisiana/Arkansas northeastward
into the Ohio River Valley. As a result, have reduced overall QPF
expected from this event. Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 1.50
can be expected along/east of the Illinois River, with less than 1
inch further northwest toward Galesburg. Due to thick cloud cover
and off-and-on showers/thunder, high temps on Tuesday will be held
in the upper 60s and lower 70s in most locations. Mid-level dry
slot may tend to work its way into east-central and southeast
Illinois Tuesday evening, resulting in lowering POPs Tuesday
night. Scattered showers will continue into Wednesday as the low
tracks overhead.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday
Models are in good agreement concerning exit of low Wednesday
night, but differ with regards to the timing of a weak cold front
expected to pass through Illinois later this week. ECMWF is
faster, pushing the front to the Indiana border by 00z Fri, while
the GFS lags about 12 hours behind. Due to the large timing
discrepancy, will maintain slight chance POPs Thursday and
Thursday night. After that, upper ridging will take hold across
the Midwest, resulting in warm and dry conditions for Friday and
Saturday. Next weather system is slated to come into the picture
by Sunday, with both the GFS and ECMWF bringing a cold front into
Illinois. Will carry chance POPs at that time accordingly.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1235 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER KS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID SOUTH...THEN
TURN NORTHEAST. INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY WED. NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A THIRD SYSTEM
SLATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. MAIN SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH/COOL FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM LOW TO
WEAK SYSTEM OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. H850 MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LOFTED
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND THE RESULTING SHOWERS EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS
ALBERT LEA MN...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER AT
0745Z. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...DRIER EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
DAMPEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...BUT THE BIGGER INFLUENCE FOR LESSER
RAIN CHANCES IS THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WESTERN KS
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST. THIS IS LESSENING THE FRONTAL FORCING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH.
GRADUALLY TODAY THE FOCUS OF FORCING WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF IOWA WITH
THE TROUGH STRUCTURE OVER NORTHWEST IOWA BASICALLY FALLING APART.
THUS...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN SECTIONS TODAY AND ALL AREAS SEEING LESSENING POP
CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EARLY TODAY THERE IS VIRTUALLY
NO INSTABILITY SO HAVE CUT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TRACE
TO 0.50 INCHES WITH HEAVIER TOTALS NORTHWEST AND WEST. THE
EURO/GEM/GFS AS WELL AS THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS TREND. HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER NORTHWEST UNDER CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS INCREASE ELSEWHERE AND
WITH 10C TO 12C AT H850 AND LIMITED MIXING WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ANOTHER PLEASANTLY WARM DAY IS HEADED FOR THE AREA WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 NORTHWEST AND IN THE MID 70S FROM CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
WITH LOW OVER THE PLAINS DIVING SOUTH...EXPECT TO SEE THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THOUGH THERE MAY BE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUE...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
NOT MUCH OF A GAP BETWEEN THE SYSTEM TODAY AND THE NEXT ONE. FOR
THAT REASON...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH IT. THOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT ON WED NIGHT AND
THU...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE A GREAT DEAL OUT OF IT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE THIRD SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE
MOISTURE WITH IT. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD OVER A
PERIOD OF 36 TO 48 HOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...09/18Z
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
SEEMS LIKE LATEST SATELLITE TREND SUGGESTING EROSION OF THE
POCKETS OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL IA...WITH MORE VFR CU
FIELD/HIGH STRATUS IN PLACE. THEREFORE HAVE ALL SITES AT VFR FOR
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
LOWER LEVELS. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE SITES
TONIGHT...WITH A LOWER VFR DECK SPREADING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS JUN 14
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...MS JUN 14
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
351 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014
...Updated synopsis and short term discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
The 12z upper air analysis showed a closed 500 millibar low pressure
center over northwest Kansas. This low has been progressing steadily
southeast through the morning and early afternoon hours with the
help of an 80 knot jet in the southwest quadrant of the low from
southeast Colorado into the OK/TX panhandle region. At the surface,
low pressure has been deepening over south central Kansas through
the morning hours. A mosaic of radar plots has shown widespread
light rain over much of central and western Kansas today, occurring
in an area of mid level deformation around the upper low. Through
the early afternoon hours, the heavier rainfall has been limited to
central and eastern Kansas with a few bands trying to move back into
the Hays/Lacrosse areas. Accordingly, rainfall rates across central
Kansas have been fairly modest and with total rainfall amounts
around two inches or so at best, the threat for flooding has been
fairly low today. Strong winds exceeding advisory criteria have been
in place across far southwest Kansas today which has lined up nicely
with an 850 millibar speed max indicated by the RUC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
As the upper low continues southeast out of Kansas into this
evening, we should see the areas of light rain over far western
Kansas continue to diminish. Areas generally east of Highway 283
will see areas of rain, possibly along with an isolated
thunderstorm, continuing into the evening hours. Precipitation
chances should come to an end along the Highway 281 corridor around
or shortly after midnight.
The latest RUC and NAM model output shows the strong 850 millibar
jet propagating out of far southwest Kansas by 6 or 7 pm and lining
up more along a Hays/Larned to Dodge City line. The current wind
advisory goes until 7 pm. Will let it go until expiration time as
winds should be diminishing around or shortly after then.
Tuesday should be mostly sunny and fairly mild as an upper level
ridge moves over the central Plains. High temperatures should top
out in the mid 80s over far southwest Kansas with highs nearing 80
in central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
Subsidence will dominate the region Tuesday night and into early
Wednesday. Mainly sunny and much warmer conditions are expected
heading into Wednesday late morning and afternoon with the
development of southerly winds and much drier boundary layer air
working downslope with time into far western Kansas. An upper jet
immediately south of the region will drag an attendant
disturbance/shortwave into the Central Plains Wednesday night. The
ECMWF/GFS and NAM all model impressive 850-700 mb moisture transport
ahead of this wave giving high probability of another MCS in some
form. Based on the different model solutions, it seems reasonable
discreet cells could form out of Colorado in the early or mid
evening with cold pool development occurring farther east.
probabilities for precipitation were increased to at least 50% in
the far west to "Likely" (60-70%) farther east. By Thursday morning,
cloudy conditions may linger for much if not all of the morning
behind a surface cold front/cold moist surface outflow air, which
various models have forecast not to exceed the upper 70s.
Deeper into the period, for Friday and through the weekend will
bring at least one additional chance for organized thunderstorms. By
Friday an upper ridge will begin to build back into the central
Plains returning prevailing southerlies to southwest Kansas. The GFS
overturns instability on Saturday which is not well supported by the
ECMWF. More model consensus falls of convective development returning
Saturday night as the main upper wave lifts into the Northern
Plains with it`s attendant upper jet streak diving into the the
Central Plains inducing surface pressure falls and left front exit
region forcing for large scale lift. These model solutions focus
deep moist convection mainly over the Interstate 70 corridor of our
forecast area for the likely areas for storms. The far southwest
remains far behind the dryline.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
A strong upper level low pressure system will track out of
southwest Kansas into central Oklahoma through this afternoon and
evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings along with MVFR visibilities in
light rain and mist will continue through the first half of this
TAF period. Along with the rain, strong northerly winds will
continue at the TAF sites this afternoon into early evening.
Conditions will improve after sunset as the rain moves out and
ceilings improve. Winds will also diminish after dark.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 82 58 90 / 70 10 0 30
GCK 49 83 58 92 / 40 10 0 30
EHA 50 84 59 90 / 0 0 0 20
LBL 50 83 59 93 / 20 0 0 20
HYS 53 80 58 89 / 80 10 0 30
P28 58 80 60 89 / 70 10 0 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ043-
044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
132 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF
MORNING FOG AND ANY AFTERNOON WORDING ASSOCIATED WITH EXPECTED SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY. ALSO INGESTED THE LATEST HOURLY OBS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND WIND DATA IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE IN WHAT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TODAY...
ESPECIALLY AFTER CONSIDERING RECENT PERFORMANCE. ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
JUST A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. THIS ALSO BRINGS GRIDS MORE IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORS THOUGHTS. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED GRIDS TO BRING THEM IN LINE
WITH HOURLY OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
FIRST FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS CYCLE WILL BE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AND CORRESPONDING SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. SECOND WILL BE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM
OUT OF THE PLAINS THAT WILL SEND A WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. IN GENERAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS. SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE SHORT TERM IS LOWER THAN USUAL.
MODEL/MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE HIGH FOR POPS LATE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE SHORT TERM. TRENDS IN THE HRRR SUGGEST THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY/TN WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES
THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY BUT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD TOGETHER
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME SCT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...SO ONLY
INCLUDED AN ISOLD CHANCE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I75.
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS
SHOOTS UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN APPEARS MUCH
GREATER...BUT BASED ON RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME OF THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE LACKING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
CUTOFF LOW WILL START OUT ACROSS MISSOURI...GRADUALLY DAMPENING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY MERGES INTO A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE
RESIDUAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WILL CONTINUE TO STICK WITH A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS SINCE
TIMING ANY GIVEN PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN.
IN GENERAL...POP CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST OVERALL FORCING AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE FORCING
WILL BE WEAKER...ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS SUCH...WILL
ONLY CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
LIFR TO IFR CIGS THAT WE WERE SEEING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY TODAY
HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO IMPROVE AS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
RISING AND OR DISSIPATING AND GIVING WAY TO THE MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ABOVE. LOZ AND SME WILL BE EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND
6Z TONIGHT. JKL AND SJS WILL LIKELY STAY WITH MVFR CIGS AND LOW
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM OR TWO COULD AFFECT LOZ AND SME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEN A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
IT STILL APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY FAVOR ISOLATED THUNDER
UNTIL AROUND 15Z. ONCE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS TREK ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WE COULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. ALL FOUR TAF SITES WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ONCE THE STORMS
BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
334 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF JUST WEST OF TAMPA.
STACKED UPPER/SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND EAST TEXAS. A LINE OF
BROKEN CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF MEMPHIS...TO
MONROE...TO HOUSTON AT 3 PM. ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT PRESENT...WITH MAIN CONVECTION ABOUT 100 MILES
WEST OF THE AREA. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. WINDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE MIDDLE 90S. DEW
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW OVER THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW BEFORE BEGINNING
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. NEVER REALLY HAVE A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LOCAL AREA
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NEAR THE WEST EDGE OF OUR CWA AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT HRRR AND 3KM WRF RUNS.
REDEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS THE WEST EDGE
OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS WILL BE UNCAPPED FOR THE MOST PART BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. SHOULD BE SOME DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN...AT LEAST EARLY
ON...TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS
ON TUESDAY. ABOUT THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. WILL BE CARRYING HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...DEFINITELY ABOVE 12Z
MAV POP GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO MET/ECMWF VALUES.
MAIN TROF AXIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
THREAT ACTUALLY OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO
CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THERE IS GOING TO BE A DRY DAY
THIS WEEK...IT WILL BE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES ON TUESDAY...IN THE MID 80S...AND IF RAIN OCCURS
MID TO LATE MORNING...THAT COULD STILL BE TOO WARM. SOME
MODERATION OCCURS WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD BE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY. 35
&&
.LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION THAT COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE TROF SLOWS ALONG THE COAST. WILL ONLY KEEP POPS IN THE 30
PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW...AS FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
STRONG. SUNDAY WILL BE DRIER AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
STILL COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
GENERALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
MONITORING THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
LOUISIANA...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BEGIN DISSIPATING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. AS A RESULT...KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z. AFTER
06Z...AN ELEVATED INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THIS INVERSION
WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK RANGING AROUND 1000 FEET TO
DEVELOP. THIS IFR AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND
14-15Z TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
THE INVERSION BEGINS TO MIX OUT. 32
&&
.MARINE...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO DOMINATE THE MARINE ZONES. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET. OVERALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE AREA. 32
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 84 69 85 / 40 60 40 40
BTR 73 85 71 88 / 40 50 40 30
ASD 75 86 73 86 / 30 50 50 40
MSY 76 86 74 86 / 20 50 50 40
GPT 77 86 74 86 / 20 40 50 50
PQL 74 86 74 85 / 20 30 50 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
122 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AMID STOUT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ISOLD/SCTD CONVECTION IS INCREASING AHEAD OF LARGER COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE EAST TEXAS LAKES
REGION. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS COMPLEX REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN
WITH EVEN THE HRRR LAGGING A FEW HRS BEHIND ITS ACTUAL CURRENT
POSN. CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT THAT IT WILL REACH KAEX TI
INSERT A TEMPO THUNDER FOR LATE AFTERNOON. KBPT AND KLCH MORE
UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE DOS NOT INDICATE THAT IT WILL MAKE IT THAT
FAR SOUTH...AT LEAST NOT AS INTACT AS IT IS NOW. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH VC WORDING AT THESE TWO SITES...BUT OTHERWISE
PREVAIL VFR. VFR TO PREVAIL AT THE ACADIANA TERMINALS.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
UPDATE...MORNING LCH SOUNDING SHOWING A MOISTENING AIRMASS
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING NEAR 1/4 INCH OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. WITH CAPPING ABSENT...HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ALONG ZONE
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WEAKENING MCS ORIENTED FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS THEN SOUTHWEST WILL BE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. TYPICAL WEAKENING
ONGOING WITH NONTURNAL DEVELOPED FEATURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
INCOMING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. UNSURE OF WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF
ONGOING CONVECTION BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. HAVE HOWEVER
BUMPED UP POPS AS SB CAPES CURRENTLY AT 3000 J/KG WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY SHOULD
SEE A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE AS WELL A CONTINUED APPROACH OF
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH DECENT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. WITH ALL THAT SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE THREAT FOR MAINLY
WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. SPC NOW HAS ALL BUT ACADIANA WITHIN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
MVFR POSSIBLE FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA THRU 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
EXPECTED WITH S WINDS 8-12 KTS WITH VCSH LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
VCTS POSSIBLE BY 20Z. FIRST IMPULSE FROM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THUS PLACED PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA & MVFR
VSBY/CEILING 00-06Z.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
ERN GULF MAINTAINING OUR EXPECTED SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE 70S ATTM. MEANWHILE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN TX
TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY/SRN AR AND ON THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS...AND DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS SYSTEM ARE
HELPING FIRE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND RED
RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME JUST A FEW SPOTTY
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ARE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
AS STATED IN FORECASTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OUR LATEST DRY
SPELL LOOKS TO BE COMING TO AN END OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
SYSTEM ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CUT OFF TODAY OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE
DRIFTING GENERALLY EWD. THE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT GIVEN OUR VERY MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS PROGGED TO APPROACH 2.0 INCHES OR ABOUT 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL) TO PRODUCE INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SPECIFICALLY
OVER THE NRN ZONES GIVEN LESS CAPPING ALOFT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SEWD BUT AS OF NOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER ITS PROXIMITY TO THE NRN ZONES
SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. SPC
HAS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK EACH OF THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BASED ON THE POTENTIAL OF ONGOING/POSSIBLE MCS
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING OVERLY OMINOUS
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN LACK OF GOOD SHEAR OR STRONGER WINDS
OFF THE SFC SO FOR NOW HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SEVERE MENTION IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES.
POPS WILL BEGIN WINDING DOWN STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MID-LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS OPENING/EJECTING NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND DRIER NRLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS ENCROACHING. HOWEVER THE DRY
WEATHER POTENTIALLY LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE-WEEK
PERIODS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SHOT OF INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AHEAD OF PASSING SFC LOW TO OUR NORTH...WHEN
CAUTION CRITERIA LOOKS POSSIBLE...NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 88 75 87 74 / 40 40 40 20
KBPT 89 75 88 73 / 40 40 40 10
KAEX 89 73 87 71 / 50 50 50 20
KLFT 89 76 87 74 / 30 40 40 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
424 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LO AMPLITUDE UPR
TROF OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS TROF IS MOVING E
NEAR THE CNDN BORDER JUST N OF MN. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DPVA/
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND AREA OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET
MAX JUST NW OF LK SUP THAT IS SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV...ONLY A NARROW
BAND OF SCT SHOWERS HAS IMPACTED AREAS FM NW WI INTO THE WRN CWA
UNDER AXIS OF ENHANCED CLD COVER EXTENDING THRU THE UPR LKS INTO
ONTARIO. THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO MORE WDSPRD PCPN APPEARS TO BE VERY
DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.34
INCH /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...COMPARED TO 0.89 INCH AT MPX /110
PCT OF NORMAL/. WITH A LGT SE SYNOPTIC FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES
CENTERED JUST E OF LK SUP...THE LLVL DRY AIR FEED AWAY FM GRB IS
LIMITING THE SHOWER COVERAGE AND SPREAD TO THE E EVEN THOUGH THE
MID/HI CLD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE UNDER THE IMPRESSIVE H4-2 DVGC
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE POPS THRU LATE TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV/DYNAMICS. FOCUS FOR TNGT AND TUE SHIFT
BACK TO MAINLY TEMPS AS SHRTWV RDG BLDS BACK OVER THE UPR LKS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA/UPR DVGC ARE PROGGED
TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR LKS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG BEFORE MOVING
INTO SE ONTARIO SOON AFT 00Z. SINCE LATEST RUC FCSTS SHOW CORE OF
LLVL DRY AIR PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL UPR MI...WL RESTRICT
ACCOMPANING POPS TO JUST THE WRN CWA THRU LATE AFTN AS ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DRIER AIR. EVEN OVER THE W...
THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/UPR CNVGC AFT 21Z SHOULD
DIMINISH THE SHOWERS AND CAUSE THEM TO END COMPLETEY BY 00Z. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD SHOULD FOLLOW THE SHRTWV TO
THE E AS WELL...GIVING WAY TO MOCLR SKIES W-E. WITH A PERSISTENCE OF
LLVL DRY AIR UNDER THE MID/HI LVL DRYING AND LGT WINDS UNDER
LINGERING SFC HI PRES RDG...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR
MIN TEMPS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG LATE OVER THE FAR W WHERE THERE
WERE SOME SHOWERS/HIER SFC DWPTS THIS AFTN FARTHER FM THE CORE OF
THE LLVL DRY AIR.
TUE...HI PRES UNDER SHRTWV RDG WL DOMINATE AND BRING A MOSUNNY DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES ON LLVL MSTR...WITH THE GFS ON THE
DRIER END OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM AND THE NAM ON THE WETTER END. GIVEN
THE OBSVD DRYNESS OF THE 12Z GRB RAOB AND THE LGT SYNOPTIC SE FLOW
THAT WL DOMINATE THRU TMRW AND MAINTAIN THIS DRY AIR...PREFER THE
GFS FCST. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH UP TO 12-13C...AND DEEP MIXING
TO H75 ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS ARPCHG 80 AWAY FM LK
MODERATION. THIS DEEP MIXING WOULD DROP SFC DWPTS INTO THE UPR
30S...LOWERING MIN RH TOWARD 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...SFC WINDS WL BE
LIGHT UNDER HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN LK SUP...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WL BE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE LGT SE SYNOPTIC FLOW WL FAVOR LK
MODERATION OFF LK MI INTO THE SCENTRAL...BUT LK BREEZES WL DVLP OFF
LK SUP ALSO AND BRING MODERATION TO AREAS MAINLY FM THE KEWEENAW AND
E.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
UPPER MI WILL BE PINNED BETWEEN THE 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
AND ANOTHER LOW ACROSS MO. OUR AREA WILL INITIALLY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE S LOW...WITH CLOUDS STREAMING N INTO S CENTRAL
UPPER MI. THE OPENING WAVE WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH E UPPER MI FROM
12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE LOW 80S. 850MB TEMPS
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 12-13C. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE SE...AND
AFTERNOON CU.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODEL SPECTRUM FOR TEMPS GIVES ANYWHERE FROM
52-75F AS REALISTIC VALUES. WITH WINDS OFF LAKE MI...HAVE BROUGHT
DOWN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT AM HESITANT ON DROPPING BELOW THE
MID 60S. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS EXPECTED...IT SHOULDN/T BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON FAR E. AS WITH TEMPS...THE TRACK OF THE BROAD SFC LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. IT SHOULD BE SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND E MN AT
06Z THURSDAY. THEN BY 18Z THURSDAY THE LOW MAY BE OVER FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR /ECMWF/...OR CENTRAL ONTARIO /NAM/...OR E ONTARIO S OF
JAMES BAY /GFS/. EVEN WITH ALL THIS THE QPF ISN/T TOO DIFFERENT.
WENT WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS...EXCLUDING THE 09/00Z CANADIAN WHICH
WAS MUCH SLOWER. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AT
00Z SATURDAY...THE GFS STILL HAD THE SFC LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SFC HIGH AND 500MB RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT E ON SATURDAY...MAKING
WAY FOR THE LOW STRETCHED ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEAR
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 500MB LOW SKIMMING THE S CANADIAN BORDER
OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO PUSH NE INTO MANITOBA ON
SUNDAY /QUICKER ON THE ECMWF/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
WITH HI PRES AND LLVL DRY AIR DOMINATING THIS FCST PERIOD...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH A PASSING
UPR DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO IWD THIS AFTN...THE LLVLS WL
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY LOWER CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WILL DOMINATE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE
MARINE LAYER THRU THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS
NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
333 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LO AMPLITUDE UPR
TROF OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS TROF IS MOVING E
NEAR THE CNDN BORDER JUST N OF MN. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DPVA/
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND AREA OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET
MAX JUST NW OF LK SUP THAT IS SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV...ONLY A NARROW
BAND OF SCT SHOWERS HAS IMPACTED AREAS FM NW WI INTO THE WRN CWA
UNDER AXIS OF ENHANCED CLD COVER EXTENDING THRU THE UPR LKS INTO
ONTARIO. THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO MORE WDSPRD PCPN APPEARS TO BE VERY
DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.34
INCH /ABOUT 40 PCT OF NORMAL/...COMPARED TO 0.89 INCH AT MPX /110
PCT OF NORMAL/. WITH A LGT SE SYNOPTIC FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES
CENTERED JUST E OF LK SUP...THE LLVL DRY AIR FEED AWAY FM GRB IS
LIMITING THE SHOWER COVERAGE AND SPREAD TO THE E EVEN THOUGH THE
MID/HI CLD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE UNDER THE IMPRESSIVE H4-2 DVGC
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE POPS THRU LATE TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV/DYNAMICS. FOCUS FOR TNGT AND TUE SHIFT
BACK TO MAINLY TEMPS AS SHRTWV RDG BLDS BACK OVER THE UPR LKS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA/UPR DVGC ARE PROGGED
TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR LKS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG BEFORE MOVING
INTO SE ONTARIO SOON AFT 00Z. SINCE LATEST RUC FCSTS SHOW CORE OF
LLVL DRY AIR PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL UPR MI...WL RESTRICT
ACCOMPANING POPS TO JUST THE WRN CWA THRU LATE AFTN AS ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DRIER AIR. EVEN OVER THE W...
THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/UPR CNVGC AFT 21Z SHOULD
DIMINISH THE SHOWERS AND CAUSE THEM TO END COMPLETEY BY 00Z. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD SHOULD FOLLOW THE SHRTWV TO
THE E AS WELL...GIVING WAY TO MOCLR SKIES W-E. WITH A PERSISTENCE OF
LLVL DRY AIR UNDER THE MID/HI LVL DRYING AND LGT WINDS UNDER
LINGERING SFC HI PRES RDG...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR
MIN TEMPS. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG LATE OVER THE FAR W WHERE THERE
WERE SOME SHOWERS/HIER SFC DWPTS THIS AFTN FARTHER FM THE CORE OF
THE LLVL DRY AIR.
TUE...HI PRES UNDER SHRTWV RDG WL DOMINATE AND BRING A MOSUNNY DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES ON LLVL MSTR...WITH THE GFS ON THE
DRIER END OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM AND THE NAM ON THE WETTER END. GIVEN
THE OBSVD DRYNESS OF THE 12Z GRB RAOB AND THE LGT SYNOPTIC SE FLOW
THAT WL DOMINATE THRU TMRW AND MAINTAIN THIS DRY AIR...PREFER THE
GFS FCST. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH UP TO 12-13C...AND DEEP MIXING
TO H75 ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS ARPCHG 80 AWAY FM LK
MODERATION. THIS DEEP MIXING WOULD DROP SFC DWPTS INTO THE UPR
30S...LOWERING MIN RH TOWARD 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...SFC WINDS WL BE
LIGHT UNDER HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN LK SUP...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WL BE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE LGT SE SYNOPTIC FLOW WL FAVOR LK
MODERATION OFF LK MI INTO THE SCENTRAL...BUT LK BREEZES WL DVLP OFF
LK SUP ALSO AND BRING MODERATION TO AREAS MAINLY FM THE KEWEENAW AND
E.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HEIGHTS STAY OVER CANADA AND
ADJANCENT CONUS...INCLUDING UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START THE WEEK.
MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING THEN CROSSES UPPER GREAT LAKES MID TO LATE
WEEK. THEN THERE ARE HINTS THAT HEIGHTS MAY RISE BRIEFLY BY BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WARMEST DAYS
LIKELY WILL BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES TO THE VCNTY
OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND AS BRIEF UPPER RIDGING PAYS VISIT TO THE REGION.
ATTENTION EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE ON UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIPPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CAUSING SHRA/TSRA FROM NEB INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND
LIFT ENE TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM MAY COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SPREAD SHOWERS INTO EASTERN CWA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO WHAT IT SHOWED 24 HR AGO...WITH
SFC-H85 LOWS TRACKING FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO BRING MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO MAINLY EASTERN THIRD OF UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN INTO WED
NIGHT. GFS HAS NOW TRENDED FARTHER EAST...KEEPING MOST AREA DRY INTO
WED NIGHT. INTERESTING THAT THE GEM-NH WHICH HAD BEEN THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE SYSTEM NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE
ECMWF. UKMET/NAM SIMILAR TO ECMWF AS WELL. KEPT WITH THE MORE
PERSISTENT ECMWF IDEA...HAVING SMALL POPS MAINLY OVER THE EAST CWA
WED INTO WED NIGHT. HIGHER SFC-H85 THETA-E VALUES AND LOWER SI/S ARE
FARTHER EAST EVEN IN THE ECMWF FCST THOUGH...SO HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION
OF TSRA FOR THE EAST CWA ON WED NIGHT. JUST AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO LIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT...NEXT STRONGER WAVE WILL BE
CLOSING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING GULF OF ALASKA SHOWS UP AS WELL
DEFINED LEAF ON WV LOOP. NOW APPEARING THAT THIS WAVE...WHICH IS
THE ONE DUE IN HERE ON THURSDAY...SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP TO YIELD
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEK. TROUGH WITH ITS DEEP LAYER LIFT VIA
12HR HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 100DAM AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH INCREASING PWATS OVER 150 PCT OF NORMAL AHEAD OF SFC
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY AFTN. COLDEST AIR ALOFT STAYS NORTHWEST OF UPPER LAKES...
SO FORECAST INSTABILITY IN TERMS OF MLCAPES FM GFS AND ECMWF STAYS
ON THE MARGINAL SIDE BY NOT EVEN CRACKING 500 J/KG. MAIN ISSUE IN
THE MODELS IS HOW QUICK THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/SHOWERS
EXIT THE AREA. NOT MUCH CONSISTENCY IN GFS/ECMWF ON THIS QUESTION.
APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA TO KEEP
POPS THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CUTTING THEM OUT ON
FRIDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BACK ON IN DECENT FORCE FOR FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON EXTENT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. SEEMS THAT H85
TEMPS AROUND +5C OR EVEN COOLER RUSH IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND SFC LOW. MAY SEE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY. INCREASED WINDS OVER THE CONSENSUS ALLBLEND GUIDANCE...
MAINLY OVER LK SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT SOUTH SHORELINE AREAS OF
NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
LIKELY THAT READINGS OVER NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN MAY NOT REACH 60
DEGREES...WHICH ALONG WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WILL RESULT IN PRETTY
CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR MID JUNE.
PATTERN STAYS ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKING DRY AND
WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW LATE THIS
WEEK IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE BIGGER INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH APPROACH ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS INFLOW FM THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS OPEN SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
EAST COAST. AFTER MAINLY 30S/40S DWPNTS MUCH OF THE WEEK COULD GET
BACK TO 50S/60S DWPNTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ECMWF SHOWS MLCAPES
TOWARD 1000J/KG ON SUNDAY...WHILE GFS IS SLOWER IN BRINGING AXIS OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE EAST. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
AS WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT/STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS/ THE INCREASE IN
SHEAR WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS GIVEN
ENOUGH INSTABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
WITH HI PRES AND LLVL DRY AIR DOMINATING THIS FCST PERIOD...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH A PASSING
UPR DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO IWD THIS AFTN...THE LLVLS WL
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY LOWER CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WILL DOMINATE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE
MARINE LAYER THRU THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS
NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1240 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A STRONG H5 DISTURBANCE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED
STATES. WV AND RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 3 AM CDT...HAS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CENTERED SOUTH OF GOODLAND KS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS...WITH DECENT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER RAWLINS WYOMING. A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXTENDED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS APPG 45 MPH FOR GUSTS. BASED ON
CURRENT OBS...LOW END ADVISORY WINDS ARE CONTINUING ROUGHLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. THEN THERE IS THE RAIN...WHICH HAS CONTINUED
ALL EVENING AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS
AND EXTENDED FROM NEAR VALENTINE TO CHAPPELL. EAST OF THIS
LINE...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE. RAINFALL RATES WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH PER HOUR. WITH CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 50 DEGREES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE MAIN MOISTURE FLUX IS NOW DOWN INTO FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING HAS ALSO BEEN WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE HAS
ALLOWED THE RAIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WITH THIS
TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WATCHING RADAR
TRENDS...AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR FORECASTS...EXPECT THE RAIN
TO BE DONE FOR MOST AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RAINFALL TRENDS. RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN DIMINISHING...DON/T
EXPECT MUCH FOR ADDITIONAL IMPACTS SO WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE FLOOD
WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 18Z.
IN ADDITION...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS HAS
ENDED SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
FOR TODAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WINDS AND TIMING OF
THE END OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS...THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL CLOSE OFF..AND DRIFT SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. THE NAM 305K THETA E SURFACE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
DECENT LIFT ACROSS SRN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY AREA OF
PCPN AND A NEW DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER NRN KS
INTO FAR SWRN NEBRASKA. IN THE MEANTIME...THROUGH MID
MORNING...LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES
WERE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH PER HOUR PER METARS. IN ADDITION
TO RAINFALL...WE WILL HAVE THE WIND TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AS THE SWRN CWA REMAINS IN A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SRN WYOMING
AND A SURFACE LOW OVER KS. THIS GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE CWA AND THIS WILL GIVE US HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE
FORECAST AREA TDY. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A FOG THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT PER THE LATEST NAM BL RH FIELD.
ATTM WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF FOG HOWEVER...AS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT FOG ATTM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE COOL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
MORE SEASONAL TEMPS /UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S/ AND DRY FOR TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...HOWEVER LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
RIDGE BUILDS FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW
NEB. HIGHS STAY IN THE 70S ALONG BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER 80S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE RETURN DOES DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER PWATS DO NOT INCREASE ABOVE THE 50 PERCENTILE
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. WHILE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA...THE PRECIP
LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THE FRONTAL
PLACEMENT...ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...WILL BE KEY TO
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS IS SLOWEST WITH THE
FRONT WHILE THE NAM IS THE FAST. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPS AND DRY. SHORT LIVED COLD SNAP WESTERN RIDGE REDEVELOPS
QUICKLY AND PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW WITH A UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO TRACK EAST NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE
REGION. RAIN HAS ENDED AT BOTH THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS AND
WILL END ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINS
OVER THE AREA...WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THESE CEILINGS WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 21Z OR
SHORTLY AFTER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME AS THE DIRECTION SWITCHES
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
RECENT RAINFALL...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
DYNAMIC COOLING TONIGHT AND WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LIGHTEST /OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/ MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
WILL KEEP THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR NOW. REALIZE THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS LIMITED GIVEN THE QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES...HOWEVER SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN FLOOD PRONE AREAS. ALSO
WITH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS...FEEL THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR SOME MINOR
FLOODING. AS FOR THE RIVERS...NUMEROUS RIVER STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE AND
LEWELLEN...THE PLATTE RIVER AT BRADY...AS WELL AS STINKING WATER
AND FRENCHMEN CREEK. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT ROSCOE...AND A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
AS OF 3 AM CDT THE VALENTINE ASOS HAS RECORDED A STORM TOTAL OF
1.54 INCHES. THIS STORM TOTAL COMBINED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WET
START TO JUNE OF 4.76 INCHES...THROUGH THE FIRST 7 DAYS...RESULTS
IN AN WHOPPING 6.30 INCHES SO FAR FOR THE MONTH...AND IT IS ONLY
JUNE 9 NOT TO MENTION THERE IS STILL LIGHT RAIN ONGOING. THIS
MONTHLY TOTAL ALREADY RANKS AS THE 8TH WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD...AND THERE ARE 21 MORE DAYS OF JUNE. NUMBER ONE ON THE
LIST WAS SET IN 1905 WITH A TOTAL OF 8.18 INCHES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ024>027-036>038-057>059-069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS
HYDROLOGY...CLB
CLIMATE...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1142 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A STRONG H5 DISTURBANCE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED
STATES. WV AND RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 3 AM CDT...HAS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CENTERED SOUTH OF GOODLAND KS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS...WITH DECENT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER RAWLINS WYOMING. A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXTENDED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS APPG 45 MPH FOR GUSTS. BASED ON
CURRENT OBS...LOW END ADVISORY WINDS ARE CONTINUING ROUGHLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. THEN THERE IS THE RAIN...WHICH HAS CONTINUED
ALL EVENING AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS
AND EXTENDED FROM NEAR VALENTINE TO CHAPPELL. EAST OF THIS
LINE...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE. RAINFALL RATES WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH PER HOUR. WITH CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 50 DEGREES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE MAIN MOISTURE FLUX IS NOW DOWN INTO FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING HAS ALSO BEEN WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE HAS
ALLOWED THE RAIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WITH THIS
TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WATCHING RADAR
TRENDS...AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR FORECASTS...EXPECT THE RAIN
TO BE DONE FOR MOST AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RAINFALL TRENDS. RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN DIMINISHING...DON/T
EXPECT MUCH FOR ADDITIONAL IMPACTS SO WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE FLOOD
WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 18Z.
IN ADDITION...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS HAS
ENDED SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
FOR TODAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WINDS AND TIMING OF
THE END OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS...THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL CLOSE OFF..AND DRIFT SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. THE NAM 305K THETA E SURFACE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
DECENT LIFT ACROSS SRN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY AREA OF
PCPN AND A NEW DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER NRN KS
INTO FAR SWRN NEBRASKA. IN THE MEANTIME...THROUGH MID
MORNING...LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES
WERE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH PER HOUR PER METARS. IN ADDITION
TO RAINFALL...WE WILL HAVE THE WIND TO CONTEND WITH ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AS THE SWRN CWA REMAINS IN A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SRN WYOMING
AND A SURFACE LOW OVER KS. THIS GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE CWA AND THIS WILL GIVE US HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE
FORECAST AREA TDY. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A FOG THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT PER THE LATEST NAM BL RH FIELD.
ATTM WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF FOG HOWEVER...AS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT FOG ATTM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE COOL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
MORE SEASONAL TEMPS /UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S/ AND DRY FOR TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...HOWEVER LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
RIDGE BUILDS FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW
NEB. HIGHS STAY IN THE 70S ALONG BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER 80S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE RETURN DOES DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER PWATS DO NOT INCREASE ABOVE THE 50 PERCENTILE
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. WHILE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA...THE PRECIP
LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THE FRONTAL
PLACEMENT...ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...WILL BE KEY TO
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS IS SLOWEST WITH THE
FRONT WHILE THE NAM IS THE FAST. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPS AND DRY. SHORT LIVED COLD SNAP WESTERN RIDGE REDEVELOPS
QUICKLY AND PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW WITH A UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO TRACK EAST NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KANW TO
KOGA THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT THE KLBF TERMINAL WITH
VISBYS DOWN TO 5SM AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...SHOWERS HAVE
ENDED...HOWEVER...LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
RANGING FROM 700 TO 2500 FEET. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
WILL KEEP THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR NOW. REALIZE THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS LIMITED GIVEN THE QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES...HOWEVER SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN FLOOD PRONE AREAS. ALSO
WITH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS...FEEL THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR SOME MINOR
FLOODING. AS FOR THE RIVERS...NUMEROUS RIVER STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE AND
LEWELLEN...THE PLATTE RIVER AT BRADY...AS WELL AS STINKING WATER
AND FRENCHMEN CREEK. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT ROSCOE...AND A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
AS OF 3 AM CDT THE VALENTINE ASOS HAS RECORDED A STORM TOTAL OF
1.54 INCHES. THIS STORM TOTAL COMBINED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WET
START TO JUNE OF 4.76 INCHES...THROUGH THE FIRST 7 DAYS...RESULTS
IN AN WHOPPING 6.30 INCHES SO FAR FOR THE MONTH...AND IT IS ONLY
JUNE 9 NOT TO MENTION THERE IS STILL LIGHT RAIN ONGOING. THIS
MONTHLY TOTAL ALREADY RANKS AS THE 8TH WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD...AND THERE ARE 21 MORE DAYS OF JUNE. NUMBER ONE ON THE
LIST WAS SET IN 1905 WITH A TOTAL OF 8.18 INCHES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ024>027-036>038-057>059-069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
HYDROLOGY...CLB
CLIMATE...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1252 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.AVIATION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM LINE HAD MOVED THROUGH KCLL AND WAS MOVING INTO KUTS
AT 1745Z. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
FORMING AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. TRIED TO TIME THE LINE OF
STORMS FOR EACH SITE WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR KSGR AND KHOU TO
THE COAST. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...THE MAIN ADVERSE IMPACT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. HAVE HAD SOME FUNNEL
CLOUD REPORTS AS WELL.
THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE A BIT ERRATIC TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. DECIDED TO GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE RAP AND NAM12. THAT
BEING THE CASE...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AFTER ABOUT 05Z THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. KEPT A MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE SITES AFTER 12Z GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST AND CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IS CURRENTLY ON THE
DOORSTEP SE TX. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY,
BUT COLD POOL BEHIND THE LINE (TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S) ALONG
WITH GOOD INFLOW FROM THE GULF SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS SWD
PROGRESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL...WILL
PROBABLY SEE MORE OF THE 25-40 MPH GUSTS ASSOCIATED W/ LEADING
EDGE OF THE LINE THAN WIDESPREAD SEVERE. BUT DO NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON CELL MERGERS WHERE BRIEF SPIKES OF INTENSITY ARE STILL A
POSSIBILITY. ALSO SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH WHERE THERE
ARE PEAKS OF SUN AND TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 90. OVERALL...JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS, POPS, CLOUDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 82 73 90 69 94 / 90 60 20 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 74 89 70 93 / 70 50 60 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 78 87 77 87 / 50 40 60 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1219 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
Continue to adjust forecast based on current radar/satellite
trends. And added the 18Z aviation discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NAM model nailed the return of cloud cover to the Concho Valley
late this morning, and shows that it will be tougher to get rid of
then we were thinking earlier. Thus, have lowered temperatures
just a couple degrees. Still made be a few degrees too warm, but
will give a little late sun the benefit of the doubt for now.
Otherwise, a few showers have redeveloped across the eastern Big
Country down into the Heartland and Concho Valley, east of an
Abilene to San Angelo line. Will maintain the slight chance pops.
&&
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Low end VFR to high end MVFR ceilings have redeveloped across
portions of the area early this afternoon, roughly in the 2500 to
5000 foot range. These should lift a little through the afternoon,
and finally begin to break up late this afternoon starting near
San Angelo, KSJT, and working southeast to Brady and Junction, KBBD
and KJCT, by early this evening. VFR conditions should prevail after
that. A few showers will be possible near Abilene and Brady for the
afternoon, but these should push east and away from the area as well.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
Updated forecasts to end the Flash Flood Watch across the Big
Country and to trim pops down across much of the area.
DISCUSSION...
Overnight complex of showers and thunderstorms has largely cleared
most of West Central Texas as of 1330Z, 830 AM. As this system
pushes completely south of the area, a more stable air mass has
pushed into the area. With the residual moisture and more sunshine
in the afternoon, atmosphere will try to become a little more
unstable again and cant rule out a stray shower or storm
redeveloping, but odds are so small that a slight chance pop should
cover it for now. Updated pretty much all aspects of the forecast
for rest of the afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Large thunderstorm complex was moving into the northern county
warning area at 230 AM. HRRR model indicates the line of
thunderstorms to move to the I-20 corridor 5 to 6 AM...and into the
Concho Valley east to Coleman and Brownwood around 7 to 8 AM. Main
threats will be damaging winds as it moves through the Big Country
early this morning, along with locally heavy rainfall. A flash flood
watch is in effect for the Big Country through 1 PM, but expect most
of the heavy rainfall/flooding potential will be done in the Big
Country by 10 AM. Went categorical for rain chances in the Big
Country, likely in the Concho Valley and Heartland, and chance over
southern counties along the I-10 corridor. Thunderstorms should be
isolated in the Big Country by noon.
Scattered thunderstorms will developed southward as the cold front
moves south today. NAM and GFS models indicate the front to reach
San Angelo and Brownwood around 1 PM and south of I-10 by 6 PM.
Convection from MCS and other storms may make it difficult to pick
out. Some storm may become severe midday and afternoon, as GFS SB
CAPES range from 2000 to 2500 J/KG along and south of a Big
Lake...San Angelo...San Saba line at 1 PM CDT. Kept a slight chance
of storms along the I-10 corridor, and from Mason to San Saba and
Brownwood where there is lingering instability.
Temperatures will be cooler today, mainly in the 80s except for
highs around 90 along the I-10 corridor. Cooler tonight in the upper
50s as skies clear and winds become light.
04
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
The long term remains essentially dry. The NAM and GFS indicate a
broad upper ridge will develop over the region by mid week. In
response to this upper pattern shift, temperatures across West
Central Texas will warm back into the mid to upper 90s mid to late
this week. With weak westerly to northwesterly flow aloft over West
Central Texas by Wednesday evening, thunderstorms which develop to
the west and northwest could move into our counties. The GFS is more
aggressive with this scenario than the NAM. Given the possibility
for this to occur, continuing slight chance PoPs for mainly the
northwestern half of West Central Texas for Wednesday evening looks
reasonable. Otherwise, a dry forecast dominates the long term, with
afternoon highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s and lows mainly in
the 70 to 75 range.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 82 59 87 67 96 / 20 5 5 5 10
San Angelo 82 58 89 67 97 / 20 10 5 5 5
Junction 88 63 90 68 93 / 20 20 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
552 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM EDT MONDAY...
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT TO MATCH UP
WITH WSR-88D KFCX TRENDS. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW SPREAD CONVECTION
EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR
LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS EVENING.
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CUT OFF SO FAR BY DRY AIR ALOFT
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE OROGRAPHIC AIDED REGIONS. HOWEVER
SEEING SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ACROSS THE SOUTH-
EAST AHEAD OF A FAINT WAVE...REMNANT OF THE EARLIER TN VALLEY
MCS...THAT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS NW NC THIS EVENING. MOST
GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTH AND SW SO LEAVING IN A LOW POP MAINLY
SOUTHERN HALF THIS EVENING... AND ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH. OTRW FORCING REMAINS LIMITED
TONIGHT AS COULD EASILY SEE THINGS GO BASICALLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE BUT GIVEN LACK OF
SHRA SO FAR APPEARS COVERAGE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LOW
SPOTS OUT EAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV LOWS IN MOUNTAINS
PER LOWER DEWPOINTS WHILE TRENDING TOWARD THE NAM OUT EAST OF THE
FRONT.
THIS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY AS SE HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE RIDING NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST LIFT AGAIN WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE TO
THE WEST WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS LACKING OVERALL ACROSS
THE REGION WITH WEST WINDS ALOFT CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE DOES DEEPEN WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WHILE ANY
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH DOWN THE FRONT GETS DAMPENED
UPON SPILLING EAST INTO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. APPEARS BEST
FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE THE
FRONT/DEEPER MOISTURE INTERSECT AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY POSSIBLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL BACKING TO A
MORE SW COMPONENT TAKES SHAPE. ELSW THINKING MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE DESPITE HIGH THETA-E AND INSTABILITY PER STRONG HEATING
ESPCLY OUT EAST. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS TO MOSTLY CHANCE WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF AFTERNOON LIKELYS FAR WEST AND BLUE RIDGE SW OF
ROANOKE. HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO 90 SE PIEDMONT PER EARLY DOWNSLOPE...AND 80S ELSW OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND FAR NW WHERE CLOUDS MAY AGAIN HOLD
VALUES IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP HEAD NORTHEAST
TO NEAR AND THEN ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...RESULTING IN A
SLOW MOVING...ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL SLOW MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THEN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR
REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THIS PERIOD...CULMINATING WITH PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CHANCE OF
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THE ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY OF
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRANSLATE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD...THERE WILL BE TREND TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
READINGS EACH DAY AS CLOUD COVER AND AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
ONLY SOME NARROW WINDOWS FOR LIMITED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST REGION.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...OR EVEN SLOWER MOVING DETACHED UPPER LOW
OUTSIDE THE MAIN JET STREAM...WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A 12 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING STILL OCCURRING...WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FEATURE WILL MAKE LIMITED MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIMITED CONVECTION...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WILL BE EITHER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON EAST OF THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING. ITS INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND REBOUND ONLY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT MONDAY...
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING ALONG THE SE AND NW FLANKS BUT WILL
LIKELY STILL HAVE TO CONTEND TO PERIODIC MVFR CIGS IN LOWER CLOUDS
AT KDAN INTO MID AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS KBLF/KLWB AS WELL. OTRW
LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CIGS ELSW WITH INTERVALS OF ONLY SCTD CLOUDS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INTO LATE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO POP UP BUT LIKELY MORESO WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE HEADING IN FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY THAT COULD SPARK A
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA FROM KTNB EAST TO KDAN...POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE KBCB-KROA-KLYH CORRIDOR INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER GIVEN LESS
EXPECTED COVERAGE HAVE CUT BACK TO MAINLY VICINITY SHRA MENTION
FOR NOW GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE. WHERE/IF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS DO
DEVELOP WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR BUT QUITE IFFY AT THIS
POINT.
ANY CONVECTION WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE WEAK WAVE
PASSES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE
IN SEEING CIGS/VSBYS GO AS LOW AS MODELS SUGGEST PENDING SHOWERS
LATER ON SO INCLUDED SOME MVFR FOG AT THE NORMALLY FOGGY LOCATIONS
LIKE KLYH/KBCB AND DROPPED KLWB DOWN TO LIFR/IFR WHERE THINK SOME
CLEARING LIKELY. OTRW IF NO SHOWERS THEN LESS FOG...IF MORE
SHOWERS THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE GREATER.
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NE OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY WITH ANY LOW
CLOUDS/FOG GIVING WAY TO AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY MID MORNING AS
THE BOUNDARY PASSES AND A WEAK NW TRAJECTORY DEVELOPS WHILE MOST
ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FOR MID WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE MS VALLEY
TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEY WED/THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGH GETS CLOSER THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE WITH
THE THREAT FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS ALSO INCREASING. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING THUS RESULTING IN A MULTIPLE DAY THREAT
FOR SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WED-FRI
WITH A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. THUS...PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. WITH THE FRONT
JUST SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL AROUND...WILL
SEE MORE OF AN ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THREAT FOR CONVECTION
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1224 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS IF IT WILL RAIN TODAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...AN UPPER
LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THIS LATTER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...RAP TROPOPAUSE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A 100-130 KT
UPPER JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN MN. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM THIS JET STREAK...
COMBINED WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE THAT STRETCHES
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MN AS SEEN IN PROFILER AND VWP
DATA...HAS HELPED SUPPORT SHOWERS WITHIN THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. SOME
OF THE RAIN HAS HAD A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND IN SOUTHWEST MN
DUE TO EXTENSIVE DRY AIR BELOW 600MB SEEN ON THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING.
IN FACT...THE 700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ON THAT SOUNDING WAS 30C!
THIS DRY AIRMASS EXTENDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS ALSO
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SOME HIGH CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS HAS SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING TO PREVENT WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE
A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. STILL...READINGS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE 50S WITH THE COLD SPOTS IN WISCONSIN IN THE MID 40S.
THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IF ANY OF THAT SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST CAN MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
FRONTOGENESIS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER JET STREAK APPEAR TO BE
THE STRONG DRIVING FORCES FOR THE PRECIPITATION. THAT UPPER JET
STREAK IS PROGGED TO GET PUSHED EAST TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...REALLY ONLY THIS MORNING DO WE HAVE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING. MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO FALL APART THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING TREND FROM THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS...PLUS
THE EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN PLACE...REALLY MAKES IT QUESTIONABLE IF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. THE 09.00Z NAM HAS TRENDED
DRAMATICALLY DRIER COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND NOW ONLY
SKIRTS A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTH CENTRAL WI WITH SOME
RAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 09.00Z GFS AND 09.02-05Z HRRR
ARE VERY SIMILAR. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FALLS IN-LINE WITH THESE
MODEL SCENARIOS AND SEEMS REASONABLE.
A DECENT TEMPERATURE CONTRAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...RESULTING FROM
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER 925MB TEMPS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF COMPARED
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF. READINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 70 SAY IN
ROCHESTER AND MEDFORD...WHILE BOSCOBEL COULD MAKE A RUN TOWARDS 80.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY MAINTAINING CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE. THIS SETUP WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME MID
CLOUDS LOOK LIKELY TO LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP THERE...BUT TO THE NORTH...SITES LIKE
BLACK RIVER FALLS COULD DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND DURING THE WEEKEND.
MUCH OF THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW
TRACKING THROUGH MISSOURI ON TUESDAY...AND THEN PULLED NORTHEAST
TOWARDS CHICAGO ON WEDNESDAY BY THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...BUT AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW FROM THE
09.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF...IT APPEARS THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WI...RESULTING MAINLY FROM DIURNAL INSTABILITY. 09.00Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN/NAM/GFS ALL SHOW SOME CONVECTION...THOUGH THE GFS
IS LIKELY TOO ROBUST WITH ITS QPF COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS
WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH MID CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
START CLEARING WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREAS LONGITUDE. 925MB TEMPS TOPPING
OUT BETWEEN 16-18C ON TUESDAY SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. THESE
WARM TOWARDS 20C ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN...SUGGESTING WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO POP UP INTO THE LOW 80S AT MANY LOCATIONS THEN.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...MODEL QPF HAS INCREASED...
PRIMARILY IN THE 06-18Z THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. STILL...THERE ARE BOTH
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MOST
NOTABLY BETWEEN THE 09.00Z CANADIAN AND GFS. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT THE STRONGER TROUGH...BUT KEPT THEM
BELOW 60 FOR NOW SINCE THE STRONGER FORCING OVERALL LOOKS TO TAKE
PLACE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE STRONGER TROUGH...A
BREEZY THURSDAY IS LOOKING LIKELY...AND COULD BE DOWN RIGHT WINDY IF
THE MOST WOUND UP CANADIAN IS RIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANY
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TO 14-16C.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS
THAT UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...YIELDING MAINLY DRY AND
RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS. THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO AN UPPER TROUGH
PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE TRENDED FOR THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TO HOLD IN PLACE LONGER...CAUSING MORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH TO STALL OR DEFLECT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AS
SUCH...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOME FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WHAT LOOKS TO BE A WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...THE WEAK TO MODERATE
700-500 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN...AND THE MID
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO EAST
AFTER 10.09Z. MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 5 TO 10
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AFTER
10.00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014
THE STAGE AT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA IS BEING MONITORED
CLOSELY AS THE RIVER IS GETTING CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE. AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE STAGE WAS AT 11.82 FT...ONLY 0.18 FT BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THE RIVER ALSO APPEARS TO BE GETTING CLOSE TO CRESTING.
ITS LIKELY THE CREST WILL BE A LONG PLATEAU NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...AJ