Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/08/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
246 PM PDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA AND OUT INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA
THIS EVENING, WITH CONTINUED LOW CHANCES IN THE SIERRA FOR THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER LOW WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND EXPAND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THERE
ARE SOME INCREASING CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DEPICTS A DECENT VORTICITY LOBE SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
WARMING. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING ANY CONVECTION
AT THIS TIME. WE WILL REEVALUATE AT THE NEXT SERIES OF MODEL RUNS.
OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS QUIET FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SIERRA ON
SUNDAY. THESE CHANCES ARE LOOKING A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE TODAY,
BUT HAVE KEPT THEM IN SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 80S AND SOME LOW 90S FOR WESTERN
NEVADA VALLEYS. BOYD
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ON MONDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. RECENT MODEL RUNS BRING IN THE LOW SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCES
OF SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND RAISE THE CHANCES OF
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FORCING ARE STILL IN QUESTION. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR OVERNIGHT, DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR FIRE WEATHER.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER ON MONDAY NOW, BUT
WITH A LOW OFF THE COAST WOULD STILL EXPECT CONVECTION AT SOME
POINT. WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY AND THE CHALLENGES OF
PREDICTING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION, DECIDED TO LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST
AS IS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. NORMAL ZEPHYR WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
ZEPHYR WINDS ON THURSDAY AS A DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
NORTHWEST. WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND WINDS INCREASING, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK. TOLBY
&&
.AVIATION...
RADAR AT 21Z SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. CURRENT HRRR MODEL HAS CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO BUILD MAINLY IN NORTHERN MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES WITH
A FEW DISCRETE CELLS BUILDING NEAR THE TAHOE BASIN AND FURTHER
NORTH OF I-80. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR TSTM WILL BE AT KTVL (25%)
FOLLOWED BY KTRK/KMMH (20%) AND KCXP/KRNO (10%). MOST LIKELY
IMPACT AT ALL TERMINALS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45KTS.
LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS REMAIN ON SATURDAY GENERALLY UP TO 10%
FOR SIERRA TERMINALS. TOLBY
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS MAINTAINED DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT
MOVES IN. AS THESE MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND
ENCOUNTER CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG...EXPECT RAPID THUNDERSTORM
INTENSIFICATION. DEEP LAYER SHEARS ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60
MPH. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITIES ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH WITH SFC
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY...STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS LCLS WILL BE LOWER AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF 0-3KM
CAPE...WHICH COULD LOCALLY INTENSIFY SPIN UPS ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS
TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT WALDO BURN SCAR (MOST
VULNERABLE BURN SCAR TO RUN-OFF PROBLEMS) WILL GET MISSED...WITH ALL
THE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AN UNLUCKY STRIKE COULD CERTAINLY
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. SAME WILL BE TRUE FOR THE OTHER BURN SCARS
IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. THOSE IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS SHOULD MAINTAIN A
HEIGHTENED AWARENESS OF THE WEATHER TODAY. ACTIVITY MARCHES
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING WITH MOST HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WAA OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH MAY KEEP GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VERY DRY SFC DEW POINTS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER TROF
APPROACHING OUT WEST...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND MOVE OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. APPEARS HIGHEST CAPE AND BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER TOMORROW...BUT 0-6KM
SHEARS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS...SO IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
CAN BE REALIZED IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THEN THERE
WILL BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. GREATEST CONCERN THOUGH WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE BURN SCARS. THIS RISK MAY
ACTUALLY INCREASE FOR SATURDAY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT
HIGH RES MODELS AND HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF NECESSARY.
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL MEAN A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER
INTO MID WEEK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COULD BE ANOTHER MCS ROLLING ACROSS THE
FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
BACK ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MTS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
LOOKS TO SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING UVV AHEAD
OF PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM. WITH AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...COULD POSSIBLY SEE TRAINING STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND ESPECIALLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
BURN SCARS. SHOULD SEE STORMS MOVING OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND PASSING TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN 4C AND 10C ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSING TROUGH...LEADING TO A COOL DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
SOME 5-15F BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN SETS UP WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE STATE MONDAY AND FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY BY MORE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...PASSING NORTHERN TIER SYSTEM SENDS A BACKDOOR
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE
OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. WINDOW OF GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM
20Z TO 01Z FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. THREAT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY CLEAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BY 06Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AREAS OF STRATUS
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS
EXPECTED FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. THEY COULD BRIEFLY DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR KPUB TOWARDS MORNING. LOWER CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST. SATURDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
KALS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT THESE ARE LESS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
-KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1105 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH IS ADVECTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...TOWARDS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM OUT OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. RADARS IN NEBRASKA ARE SHOWING INITIAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A TENDENCY FOR
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE
RAP MODEL SHOW 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN LOGAN COUNTY BY 1 PM. WIND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR STRONGLY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS UTAH AT THE PRESENT TIME IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROVIDING DYNAMIC LIFT ALOFT.
THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...WELL SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT INTERACTIONS EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. IF THIS SECOND AREA OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS...IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER
TOO. THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE DECREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AFTER 6 PM. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. IF
THAT DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE...THEN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM OR 10 PM. FOR THE TIME BEING WILL
STICK WITH THE HEAVY HANDED FORECAST WITH THE MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL FIRING ACROSS ELBERT AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES IN PROXIMITY OF JET STREAK WHICH HAS BEEN SAGGING SOUTH.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE CLEARING EXCEPT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS PARK COUNTY.
MAIN CONCERN AGAIN TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY EVEN SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. ONE
WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AGAIN AND THE OTHER NEAR THE
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BORDER AREAS WITH APPROACHING FRONT. LESS
INFLUENCE FROM THE JET TODAY BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN WAVE NOW OVER NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH WILL MOVE INTO
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY
SPARK FURTHER STORMS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS EAST AND NORTHEAST.
SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE ANYWHERE FROM 1000-2000J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A DENVER
CYCLONE SETTING UP TODAY WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY OVER
THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTHERN ARAPAHOE COUNTIES.
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EXPECT LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG THE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP IN SOME LOW POPS EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
UPSLOPE WILL DEEPEN SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THIS MAY ACT LIKE A
TYPICAL DAY 1 WITH A FRONT...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO ERODE AND
MUCH OF THE PLAINS BEING TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
CONVECTION IN THE FOOTHILLS THOUGH. SUNDAY THEN MAY BE A DAY TWO
SETUP WITH RETURN FLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH MAY WORK WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING SHEAR TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
THEM SEVERE.
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE TROUGH DRYER SUBSIDENT AIR MAY MAKE
A DAY WITH NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS MODELS HAVE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. IT IS JUNE SO THAT LOOKS PERFECTLY REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST WITH THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY...CONTINUED MILD THROUGH MONDAY...THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO THE MID 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WE HAVE ONLY HAD ONE 90 DEGREE DAY THUS FAR IN DENVER...
AND WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY
SEE MORE 90 DEGREE READINGS LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
DENVER AREA AIRPORTS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BETWEEN 2 PM
AND 8 OR 9 PM. SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER. STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING MOIST AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
LONG TERM HYDROLOGY...RISING TEMPERATURES AND SUNSHINE BY MIDWEEK
WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE SNOWMELT. BUT BY MIDWEEK STAGES ON MOST
STREAMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE
MOUNTAIN STREAMS IN SUMMIT COUNTY WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO
RECEDE.
CAUTION IS RECOMMENDED FOR ANYONE AROUND HIGH AND FAST MOVING
STREAMS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO FOR THE NEXT WEEK
OR TWO.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
901 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE THIS EVENING SHOWS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. A FEW SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE UPSTATE ALTHOUGH THEY ARE SLOW
MOVING AND MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE CWA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE AREA AND
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AND
REACHING THE CWA NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES BY 12Z.
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT... HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THE WARM SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION.
THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE CWA AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE
UNSTABLE MONDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED FOR MONDAY ALSO. GIVEN WEAK
FLOW AND HIGH PWAT....LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY THEN LOW 90S ON
MONDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THEN
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA EWD TO NEAR THE AUGUSTA AREA AND THEN
INTO THE LOWCOUNTRY OF SC. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FLUCTUATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT WILL STILL REMAIN
OVER/NEAR THE CSRA. 88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MIDLAND AND MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER AT THIS TIME. THE TAF SITES THAT WILL MOST AFFECTED
WILL BE OGB AND AGS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL 22Z. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS S/W MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH STALLED
BOUNDARY. WILL MENTION VCSH/VCTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR/MVFR CONDITION
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY AROUND 15Z-16Z SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY. CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE LITTLE OR NO UPPER-LEVEL LIFT OVERNIGHT.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE APPEARS LOW ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAYS LITTLE
COVERAGE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. MODELS
ALSO INDICATE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION
WITHIN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE BOTH DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...GIVEN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE SC
MIDLANDS. MAINLY DRY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WATCHING
A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN VALLEY MOVING SE.
LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SEEM TO SHOW MUCH FROM THESE STORMS...BUT
INDICATES MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING. CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE MEANDERING OF THE FRONT...BUT MAY
GO LIGHT NORTHEAST AT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT. LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATING MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
257 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH 2 SHORT WAVES ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. MLCAPES RUNNING 1000-2000 EXCEPT SLIGHTLY LESS
FOR THE FAR ENE PORTION OF THE STATE. FIRST SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE SECOND EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MS/AL AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA VERY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...TENDING TO FAVOR CENTRAL GA MORE
SO. THE 4KM WRF REFLECTIVITY IS QUITE FAST WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND/AREA OF CONVECTION WHILE THE HRRR HAS BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT
AND SLOWER.
MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE LESS HELP FROM SHORT ENERGY ALOFT FOR SATURDAY
AND THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY TIED TO THE INSTABILITY
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
BDL
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS
INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. WITH SO MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND
IT WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WHICH AREA OF THE CWA TO FAVOR WITH
HIGHER POPS. HOWEVER WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTH...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN THAT AREA
FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
41
&&
.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ON SUNDAY... MODELS AGREE ON A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
DRAGS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TO AROUND NORTH GA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT QUICKLY RETREATS NORTHWARD
MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS WHERE IT CUTS OFF BY TUESDAY... AND
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT... EXPECT A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH A FRONT MAY PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH GA... THE LACK OF A FRONTAL
FOCUS AND NOTED WEAK SHEAR VALUES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SUGGEST STORMS THEN SHOULD BE MORE OF THE TYPICAL GARDEN VARIETY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PULSE STORMS... AND THEREFORE... FOR THE MOST
PART... REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER... AS THE UPPER LOW
KICKS EASTWARD AND APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY... THE ADDED UPPER SUPPORT COULD ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN WARRANTS SHOWING
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED... WITH POSSIBLY THE GREATER CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OCCURRING LATER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND
OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY IN THE 60S AND 70S
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
39
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AND CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT FOR LOWER CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS
MOSTLY WNW 7-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE AND
STRONGER WINDS AROUND STORMS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ATL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
BDL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 68 89 69 87 / 30 40 30 50
ATLANTA 70 88 72 86 / 40 40 30 40
BLAIRSVILLE 59 84 64 80 / 30 40 30 60
CARTERSVILLE 66 88 69 87 / 40 40 30 50
COLUMBUS 72 90 73 90 / 60 40 20 40
GAINESVILLE 68 87 70 84 / 30 40 30 60
MACON 68 90 71 88 / 50 50 30 40
ROME 67 87 70 86 / 40 40 30 60
PEACHTREE CITY 67 89 69 87 / 50 40 30 40
VIDALIA 72 92 72 90 / 60 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...GORDON...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...MERIWETHER...
MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TROUP...WALKER...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
216 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS LIKELY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 90 DESPITE WEAK
NORTH FLOW. HIGHER POPS IN THE CSRA AND LOWER POPS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH PWAT 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN...MORE LIKELY IN GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. MODELS
ALSO INDICATE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION
WITHIN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE BOTH DAYS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST
STATES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD
TO THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...GIVEN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE SC
MIDLANDS. MAINLY DRY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WATCHING
A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN VALLEY MOVING SE.
LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SEEM TO SHOW MUCH FROM THESE STORMS...BUT
INDICATES MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING. CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE MEANDERING OF THE FRONT...BUT MAY
GO LIGHT NORTHEAST AT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT. LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATING MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
145 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA BY TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS LIKELY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 90 DESPITE WEAK
NORTH FLOW. HIGHER POPS IN THE CSRA AND LOWER POPS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH PWAT 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN...MORE LIKELY IN GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
MIDLANDS/CSRA AND PIEDMONT.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MID- WEEK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY MONDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...GIVEN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE SC
MIDLANDS. MAINLY DRY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WATCHING
A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN VALLEY MOVING SE.
LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SEEM TO SHOW MUCH FROM THESE STORMS...BUT
INDICATES MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING. CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE MEANDERING OF THE FRONT...BUT MAY
GO LIGHT NORTHEAST AT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT. LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATING MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
210 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE MAIN BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS BY MORNING. CURRENT 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS
REMNANTS OF MCS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CSRA...BUT HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE BEING OVER NORTH GEORGIA. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATED THIS WEAKENING AND IT CONTINUES TO DO SO. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/SRN CSRA REMAINS WEAKLY/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AS REMNANTS
OF THE MCS MOVE SEWD. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SAVANNAH
RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT LOWER POPS FROM THAT POINT ONWARD
TOWARD DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
MIDLANDS/CSRA AND PIEDMONT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH
PWAT 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MID- WEEK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY
TO KEEP THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
WILL WASH OUT BY MONDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...GIVEN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS OUTFLOWS FROM COLLAPSING
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GA ENTER THE AREA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE IMPACT TO TAF SITES REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
FOR CAE/CUB AND WILL UPDATE REMAINING SITES AS CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF CONVECTION LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND WILL ADJUST WITH UPCOMING
ISSUANCES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1004 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
855 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS EARLIER THIS EVENING TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS TO MODIFY HOURLY
TEMP/RH TRENDS TO COOL/MOISTEN MORE QUICKLY WHERE STEADY RAIN WAS
MOVING IN. HAVE ALSO BOOSTED FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY
SOUTH.
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH CIRCULATION NOTED OVER WEST CENTRAL
IL AT AND BELOW 700 MB. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES AREA OF
MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF
IL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH RAIN NOW IN THE PROCESS
OF SPREADING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. DRY
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THESE AREAS HAD WORKED TO ERODE THE
INITIAL EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE STRONGEST 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...THUS HAVE BASED
FORECAST POP/QPF DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING CLOSELY UPON A BLEND OF
OBSERVED TRENDS AND THESE HIGH-RES MODELS. RAP MUCAPE FIELD
CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA (100
J/KG OR LESS)...THUS HAD EARLIER BACKED OFF TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF THUNDER WHILE RAISING OVERALL POPS FOR RAIN INTO 75-100
PERCENT RANGE (HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN 1/2 CWA). THE 00Z ILX
SOUNDING INDICATES A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.76 INCHES...AND
1.5-2.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MO/SOUTHEAST IA. THUS HAVE RAISED QPF AMOUNTS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-80...WHERE SOME 1.0-1.5 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MORE
PREVALENT HEAVIER RAIN.
RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST-EAST FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE.
SUBSIDENCE THEN DEVELOPS WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH COUPLED WITH DRYING OF
LOW LEVELS ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD HELP SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE
CLOUD COVER BY LATE MORNING.
RATZER/CMS
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
325 PM CDT
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LAKE
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...HAVE BEEN
MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL IL ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE SYSTEM IS LIFTING NEWD A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM GRIDS/FORECAST TO
REFLECT PCPN MOVING INTO THE FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTON COUNTY
BY ARND 21Z AND THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE
NEWD PROGRESS OF THIS PCPN WILL BE LIMITED IN PART BY THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL WI TO CNTRL IA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A BROKEN LINE ALONG OR JUST
POST-FRONTAL AND THIS ACTIVITY IS STEADILY PROGRESSING SEWD. THE
SEWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN
THE PUSH BEHIND THE NRN STREAM COLD FRONT. SO...THE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST EXTENSIVE PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE NOT
OUT OF THE WOODS AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED
AND THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT COULD STILL BRING SOME PCPN TO
THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRS STREAM SYSTEM WITH HAVE
GREATER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND HEATING...SO THEY SHOULD BE
STRONGER THAN THOSE TO THE NORTH. STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA MAY BRING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE SOME SMALL
HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY
MORNING AND THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW...SETTING UP GENERALLY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
WILL BE ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL LEVELS...IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING
HUMIDITY AT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG THE
LAKEFRONT...WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER...IN THE 60S.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL NOT BE UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER KS BORDER BY MONDAY WHICH THEN SLOWLY SINKS
SEWD TO THE INTERSECTION OF KS/OK/MO/AR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IT
SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFTS INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM...THE NAM HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN A
STRONGER/FASTER OUTLIER AND HAS BEEN DISMISSED. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS LIFTING THE SYSTEM OUT FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. THIS WILL IMPACT...IN PARTICULAR...THE TIMING OF THE END
OF THE PCPN OVER THE AREA. TYPICALLY...THE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
FAST IN OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT CLOSED UPPER LOWS...SO HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND
ANTICIPATE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR PCPN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD...FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE LOW
AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SERN CANADA AND WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME PERIODS OF PCPN DURG
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FROM A RELATIVE MINIMA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE MIDWEST...TRENDING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE
EXCEPTION AGAIN BEING THE LAKEFRONT WHERE DAILY LAKE BREEZES ARE
LIKELY AND WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER. AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY
DAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IS THURSDAY WHEN WLY-SWLY
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO PENETRATE UP TO THE LAKEFRONT.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* RAIN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND EXTENDING INTO THE EARLY PRE-
DAWN HOURS.
* PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.
* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS AT 03Z...
SLOWED A BIT BY DRY LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS BACKING
MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF A SMALL AREA OF
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OVER SOUTHWEST WI/NORTHWEST IL...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. OVERALL...TAF TREND APPEARS
GENERALLY ON TRACK INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 00Z...
POTENT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD AN AREA OF
RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING. ONLY SHALLOW
WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH TSRA POTENTIAL
FAIRLY LOW ACROSS IMMEDIATE TERMINALS AND HIGHER NORTH IN
WISCONSIN AND SOUTH ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL/IN. VARIOUS HIGH-RES
MODELS INDICATE RAIN WILL AFFECT RFD ROUGHLY 02-06Z...AND CHICAGO
TERMINALS 02-03Z THROUGH 08-10Z. VIS/CIG MAY DIP TO LOW END OF VFR
DURING THE NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW END MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT
AS COOLER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. WITH
DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING...
DRYING/SINKING AIR SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID-DAY.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR KSTL MOVES ALONG AN APPROXIMATELY KCMI-
KLAF LINE THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. BY MORNING...BREEZY
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL AS THE LOW
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH SOME DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING AND WIND TRENDS TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS EARLY SUNDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN GUST SPEEDS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE TSRA...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
NORTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR. LATE DAY
LAKE BREEZE SHIFT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
205 PM CDT
WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...WITH 15 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SET UP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR THESE STRONGER NORTHERN WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH 4+ FOOT
WAVES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...INCLUDING BOTH THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ABATE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTED ONSHORE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND IT COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ENHANCED AT TIMES
ON MONDAY DUE TO LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES. THE WINDS IN CONDITIONS
LIKE THIS CAN SOMETIMES BE STRONGER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE INDICATES.
SO...WITH THIS IN MIND...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHER WAVES...POSSIBLY
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...COULD CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THESE ONSHORE EASTERLY WINDS COULD EVEN BECOME ENHANCED A BIT MORE
AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
MONDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...7 AM SUNDAY TO 4
AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM SUNDAY TO 4
AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
856 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
855 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS EARLIER THIS EVENING TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS TO MODIFY HOURLY
TEMP/RH TRENDS TO COOL/MOISTEN MORE QUICKLY WHERE STEADY RAIN WAS
MOVING IN. HAVE ALSO BOOSTED FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY
SOUTH.
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH CIRCULATION NOTED OVER WEST CENTRAL
IL AT AND BELOW 700 MB. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES AREA OF
MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF
IL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH RAIN NOW IN THE PROCESS
OF SPREADING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. DRY
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THESE AREAS HAD WORKED TO ERODE THE
INITIAL EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE STRONGEST 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...THUS HAVE BASED
FORECAST POP/QPF DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING CLOSELY UPON A BLEND OF
OBSERVED TRENDS AND THESE HIGH-RES MODELS. RAP MUCAPE FIELD
CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA (100
J/KG OR LESS)...THUS HAD EARLIER BACKED OFF TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF THUNDER WHILE RAISING OVERALL POPS FOR RAIN INTO 75-100
PERCENT RANGE (HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN 1/2 CWA). THE 00Z ILX
SOUNDING INDICATES A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.76 INCHES...AND
1.5-2.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MO/SOUTHEAST IA. THUS HAVE RAISED QPF AMOUNTS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-80...WHERE SOME 1.0-1.5 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MORE
PREVALENT HEAVIER RAIN.
RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST-EAST FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE.
SUBSIDENCE THEN DEVELOPS WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH COUPLED WITH DRYING OF
LOW LEVELS ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD HELP SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE
CLOUD COVER BY LATE MORNING.
RATZER/CMS
RATZER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
325 PM CDT
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LAKE
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...HAVE BEEN
MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL IL ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE SYSTEM IS LIFTING NEWD A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM GRIDS/FORECAST TO
REFLECT PCPN MOVING INTO THE FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTON COUNTY
BY ARND 21Z AND THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE
NEWD PROGRESS OF THIS PCPN WILL BE LIMITED IN PART BY THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL WI TO CNTRL IA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A BROKEN LINE ALONG OR JUST
POST-FRONTAL AND THIS ACTIVITY IS STEADILY PROGRESSING SEWD. THE
SEWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN
THE PUSH BEHIND THE NRN STREAM COLD FRONT. SO...THE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST EXTENSIVE PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE NOT
OUT OF THE WOODS AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED
AND THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT COULD STILL BRING SOME PCPN TO
THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRS STREAM SYSTEM WITH HAVE
GREATER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND HEATING...SO THEY SHOULD BE
STRONGER THAN THOSE TO THE NORTH. STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA MAY BRING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE SOME SMALL
HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY
MORNING AND THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW...SETTING UP GENERALLY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
WILL BE ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL LEVELS...IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING
HUMIDITY AT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG THE
LAKEFRONT...WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER...IN THE 60S.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL NOT BE UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER KS BORDER BY MONDAY WHICH THEN SLOWLY SINKS
SEWD TO THE INTERSECTION OF KS/OK/MO/AR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IT
SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFTS INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM...THE NAM HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN A
STRONGER/FASTER OUTLIER AND HAS BEEN DISMISSED. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS LIFTING THE SYSTEM OUT FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. THIS WILL IMPACT...IN PARTICULAR...THE TIMING OF THE END
OF THE PCPN OVER THE AREA. TYPICALLY...THE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
FAST IN OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT CLOSED UPPER LOWS...SO HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND
ANTICIPATE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR PCPN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD...FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE LOW
AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SERN CANADA AND WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME PERIODS OF PCPN DURG
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FROM A RELATIVE MINIMA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE MIDWEST...TRENDING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE
EXCEPTION AGAIN BEING THE LAKEFRONT WHERE DAILY LAKE BREEZES ARE
LIKELY AND WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER. AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY
DAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IS THURSDAY WHEN WLY-SWLY
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO PENETRATE UP TO THE LAKEFRONT.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* RAIN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND EXTENDING INTO THE EARLY PRE-
DAWN HOURS.
* PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.
* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
POTENT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD AN AREA OF
RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING. ONLY SHALLOW
WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH TSRA POTENTIAL
FAIRLY LOW ACROSS IMMEDIATE TERMINALS AND HIGHER NORTH IN
WISCONSIN AND SOUTH ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL/IN. VARIOUS HIGH-RES
MODELS INDICATE RAIN WILL AFFECT RFD ROUGHLY 02-06Z...AND CHICAGO
TERMINALS 02-03Z THROUGH 08-10Z. VIS/CIG MAY DIP TO LOW END OF VFR
DURING THE NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW END MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT
AS COOLER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. WITH
DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING...
DRYING/SINKING AIR SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID-DAY.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR KSTL MOVES ALONG AN APPROXIMATELY KCMI-
KLAF LINE THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. BY MORNING...BREEZY
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL AS THE LOW
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH SOME DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING AND WIND TRENDS TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS EARLY SUNDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN GUST SPEEDS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE TSRA...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
NORTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR. LATE DAY
LAKE BREEZE SHIFT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
205 PM CDT
WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...WITH 15 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SET UP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR THESE STRONGER NORTHERN WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH 4+ FOOT
WAVES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...INCLUDING BOTH THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ABATE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTED ONSHORE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND IT COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ENHANCED AT TIMES
ON MONDAY DUE TO LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES. THE WINDS IN CONDITIONS
LIKE THIS CAN SOMETIMES BE STRONGER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE INDICATES.
SO...WITH THIS IN MIND...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHER WAVES...POSSIBLY
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...COULD CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THESE ONSHORE EASTERLY WINDS COULD EVEN BECOME ENHANCED A BIT MORE
AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
MONDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...7 AM SUNDAY TO 4
AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM SUNDAY TO 4
AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1202 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WESTERN HALF. RAP 0-500M RH IS
ELEVATED IN THESE SECTIONS. LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND MOIST
SOILS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST...SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATION FOG
FORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THE AIRMASS HAD DESTABILIZED COUPLED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING SHIFTING IT/S
FORCING INTO AND THEN QUICKLY EAST OF CENTRAL IOWA. EXPECT THE
AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL IOWA TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH. AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST THIS EVENING AND AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES...THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT
SHOULD INHIBIT NOCTURNAL STORMS TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY. HOWEVER...NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN PUBLIC FORECAST.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE TO IMPACT IOWA INTO FRIDAY. STILL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AND APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING NOT REAL STRAIGHT FORWARD DUE
TO SEVERAL NEGATIVE FACTORS INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH PWATS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. RESIDUAL DRIER AIR FROM THE
DEPARTING HIGH SHOULD LINGER INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND MORE FOCUSED OVER TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGRESSIVELY ZONAL WITH SUB
TROPICAL HIGH MOVING NORTH INTO THE SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ALSO
BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THAT AREA. HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY
THOUGH DIMINISHED THEM A BIT WITH THE OVERALL TRENDS FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN POPS MAY VERY WELL BE EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTH THEN POSSIBLE INITIATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHERN CANADA UPPER LOW WILL BE DICTATING THE UPPER FLOW AS
IT MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY THIS LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE
MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH A RETURN TO SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS IFR AT SEVERAL SITES...BUT
CROSSOVER TEMPS AND RECENT HISTORY SUGGEST THIS IS OVERDONE. HAVE
MENTIONED MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IN LOWER CATEGORIES INCREASES. DID DROP TO IFR AT KFOD HOWEVER
WHICH IS FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND ALREADY HAS HIGH RH. WINDS
SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP FRI AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
CERTAINLY NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1217 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...Unsettled and potentially very wet through the short term...
Some of you may be looking at the above headline and notice the word
wet and remain a bit dubious. We are in the weather pattern period of
scattered thunderstorms/MCS`s and those that experience activity right
over them will see heavy rainfall, while those nearby without thunderstorm
activity will see basically nothing. An example of that occurred last
night where the northern zones saw 4+", while the southern zones saw
0.00". A similar pattern is expected today and tonight. So... a break
down of the short term period:
This morning:
Main concern is watching convection across eastern Colorado. This activity
may impact the western zones early this morning. A secondary band is
possible later in the morning in association with warm air advection
and isentropic lift. The HRRR has indicated this along and south of
the Arkansas river.
Today/Tonight:
Main concern is late this evening. PWATs are forecast to be around 1.50",
which is near the +2SD mark. There is considerable disagreement between
the global models (GFS/EC) and convective allowing models (ARW, 4 km
NAM) in where the MCS will track. Have ramped up pops by late evening
and also increased QPF given the overall trend in the mesoscale pattern
of a heavy rain event. There is the potential for heavy rainfall from
00Z onward. Thermodynamics/kinematics are there for severe weather,
however, I have a few problems with this. First, forecast soundings
are rather moist adiabatic (however, probably somewhat influenced from
convection in the output), however, this leads to somewhat of a thick hail
growth zone, which is not conducive for significant hail growth. MUCAPE
of 1500 j/kg and 40+ kt of effective bulk shear do suggest the notion
of more organized convection, however, mid level lapse rates are not
that steep and upper level winds back with time, which increases precipitation
efficiency near/in the updraft of any organized storm. Given how moist
the atmosphere will be with the lack of upper level wind flow for the evacuation
of hydrometeors downstream, think the overall hail potential for tonight
is not that great. Running the parameters in the LHP algorithm comes
up with a value of 5. This suggests that golf balls would be on the
upper end of the hail size distribution. Other threats would be wet
microbursts of 60+ mph. The most significant threat would be very heavy
rainfall leading to flooding. As stated above, there is low confidence
is where the heavy precipitation will fall as models are in disagreement.
It is also foolish to state that 10.1 miles southwest of Dodge City
will see 1.34" of rain between 18Z today and 12Z tomorrow morning, as
this simply isn`t effective meteorology. We just don`t have that skill
to do that. Bottom line, if a storm festers over you, you could easily
see an 1"+ of rain, while your neighbor might see practically squat.
Lastly, SPC has some of the area in a 5 percent tornado, although I`m
not sure about that given weak 0-1 km bulk shear and any significant
STP is well south of the forecast area. This isn`t the environment for
discrete supercells but an amorphous blob of convection.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
For Saturday, some minor upper level disturbances are forecast
across the Central and Southern Plains with a cold front and
baroclinic zone south across west Texas into Oklahoma. A marginally
severe MCS will likely track south of Kansas along the baroclinic
zone with the best chances for thunderstorms across southern Kansas.
Highs on Saturday look fairly cool, with mostly cloudy skies, in the
mid to upper 70s.
For Sunday, a more substantial upper level trough moves across the
Plains on Sunday night with the ECMWF model showing thunderstorms
likely with another MCS while the GFS has most of the heavy rainfall
over far western Kansas. Current thoughts are severe chances do not
look all that good with moist adiabatic lapse rates. May need to
adjust precip chances upwards as the ECMWF shows heavy rainfall
potential. Highs still look fairly cool and only in the 70s.
For the period Monday into Thursday, a warming trend is in the
offing with highs warming back into the 80s Tuesday into Thursday
with lows in the 60s. Thunderstorms chances look minimal as an upper
level trough moves east of the region and minor upper level ridging
moves back into the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
Strong to severe convection will likely develop again this
afternoon potentially affecting GCK and DDC terminals along a
quasi-stationary surface boundary. By late afternoon into this
evening, numerous thunderstorms will be likely and we will
continue with VCTS in the TAF through much of the evening. After
midnight, a large cluster of thunderstorm activity should finally
begin to shift east of the GCK/DDC/HYS terminals with northeast
winds prevailing and ceilings likely in the MVFR range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 63 78 60 / 50 90 50 40
GCK 83 62 76 59 / 50 80 30 40
EHA 82 62 78 59 / 70 90 40 50
LBL 84 63 79 61 / 80 90 50 50
HYS 83 62 77 59 / 10 70 40 20
P28 84 66 81 64 / 70 80 60 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
625 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2014
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...Unsettled and potentially very wet through the short term...
Some of you may be looking at the above headline and notice the word
wet and remain a bit dubious. We are in the weather pattern period of
scattered thunderstorms/MCS`s and those that experience activity right
over them will see heavy rainfall, while those nearby without thunderstorm
activity will see basically nothing. An example of that occurred last
night where the northern zones saw 4+", while the southern zones saw
0.00". A similar pattern is expected today and tonight. So... a break
down of the short term period:
This morning:
Main concern is watching convection across eastern Colorado. This activity
may impact the western zones early this morning. A secondary band is
possible later in the morning in association with warm air advection
and isentropic lift. The HRRR has indicated this along and south of
the Arkansas river.
Today/Tonight:
Main concern is late this evening. PWATs are forecast to be around 1.50",
which is near the +2SD mark. There is considerable disagreement between
the global models (GFS/EC) and convective allowing models (ARW, 4 km
NAM) in where the MCS will track. Have ramped up pops by late evening
and also increased QPF given the overall trend in the mesoscale pattern
of a heavy rain event. There is the potential for heavy rainfall from
00Z onward. Thermodynamics/kinematics are there for severe weather,
however, I have a few problems with this. First, forecast soundings
are rather moist adiabatic (however, probably somewhat influenced from
convection in the output), however, this leads to somewhat of a thick hail
growth zone, which is not conducive for significant hail growth. MUCAPE
of 1500 j/kg and 40+ kt of effective bulk shear do suggest the notion
of more organized convection, however, mid level lapse rates are not
that steep and upper level winds back with time, which increases precipitation
efficiency near/in the updraft of any organized storm. Given how moist
the atmosphere will be with the lack of upper level wind flow for the evacuation
of hydrometeors downstream, think the overall hail potential for tonight
is not that great. Running the parameters in the LHP algorithm comes
up with a value of 5. This suggests that golf balls would be on the
upper end of the hail size distribution. Other threats would be wet
microbursts of 60+ mph. The most significant threat would be very heavy
rainfall leading to flooding. As stated above, there is low confidence
is where the heavy precipitation will fall as models are in disagreement.
It is also foolish to state that 10.1 miles southwest of Dodge City
will see 1.34" of rain between 18Z today and 12Z tomorrow morning, as
this simply isn`t effective meteorology. We just don`t have that skill
to do that. Bottom line, if a storm festers over you, you could easily
see an 1"+ of rain, while your neighbor might see practically squat.
Lastly, SPC has some of the area in a 5 percent tornado, although I`m
not sure about that given weak 0-1 km bulk shear and any significant
STP is well south of the forecast area. This isn`t the environment for
discrete supercells but an amorphous blob of convection.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
For Saturday, some minor upper level disturbances are forecast
across the Central and Southern Plains with a cold front and
baroclinic zone south across west Texas into Oklahoma. A marginally
severe MCS will likely track south of Kansas along the baroclinic
zone with the best chances for thunderstorms across southern Kansas.
Highs on Saturday look fairly cool, with mostly cloudy skies, in the
mid to upper 70s.
For Sunday, a more substantial upper level trough moves across the
Plains on Sunday night with the ECMWF model showing thunderstorms
likely with another MCS while the GFS has most of the heavy rainfall
over far western Kansas. Current thoughts are severe chances do not
look all that good with moist adiabatic lapse rates. May need to
adjust precip chances upwards as the ECMWF shows heavy rainfall
potential. Highs still look fairly cool and only in the 70s.
For the period Monday into Thursday, a warming trend is in the
offing with highs warming back into the 80s Tuesday into Thursday
with lows in the 60s. Thunderstorms chances look minimal as an upper
level trough moves east of the region and minor upper level ridging
moves back into the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
Scattered thunderstorms will become more numerous after midnight
with a complex of thunderstorms expected to move east across
western Kansas overnight. Some thunderstorms later tonight may be
severe with large hail along with very heavy rainfall and possible
MVFR conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 63 78 60 / 70 80 40 40
GCK 83 62 76 59 / 70 70 40 40
EHA 82 62 78 59 / 70 70 50 50
LBL 84 63 79 61 / 70 70 50 50
HYS 83 62 77 59 / 70 80 50 30
P28 84 66 81 64 / 70 80 50 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
242 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2014
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...Unsettled and potentially very wet through the short term...
Some of you may be looking at the above headline and notice the word
wet and remain a bit dubious. We are in the weather pattern period of
scattered thunderstorms/MCS`s and those that experience activity right
over them will see heavy rainfall, while those nearby without thunderstorm
activity will see basically nothing. An example of that occurred last
night where the northern zones saw 4+", while the southern zones saw
0.00". A similar pattern is expected today and tonight. So... a break
down of the short term period:
This morning:
Main concern is watching convection across eastern Colorado. This activity
may impact the western zones early this morning. A secondary band is
possible later in the morning in association with warm air advection
and isentropic lift. The HRRR has indicated this along and south of
the Arkansas river.
Today/Tonight:
Main concern is late this evening. PWATs are forecast to be around 1.50",
which is near the +2SD mark. There is considerable disagreement between
the global models (GFS/EC) and convective allowing models (ARW, 4 km
NAM) in where the MCS will track. Have ramped up pops by late evening
and also increased QPF given the overall trend in the mesoscale pattern
of a heavy rain event. There is the potential for heavy rainfall from
00Z onward. Thermodynamics/kinematics are there for severe weather,
however, I have a few problems with this. First, forecast soundings
are rather moist adiabatic (however, probably somewhat influenced from
convection in the output), however, this leads to somewhat of a thick hail
growth zone, which is not conducive for significant hail growth. MUCAPE
of 1500 j/kg and 40+ kt of effective bulk shear do suggest the notion
of more organized convection, however, mid level lapse rates are not
that steep and upper level winds back with time, which increases precipitation
efficiency near/in the updraft of any organized storm. Given how moist
the atmosphere will be with the lack of upper level wind flow for the evacuation
of hydrometeors downstream, think the overall hail potential for tonight
is not that great. Running the parameters in the LHP algorithm comes
up with a value of 5. This suggests that golf balls would be on the
upper end of the hail size distribution. Other threats would be wet
microbursts of 60+ mph. The most significant threat would be very heavy
rainfall leading to flooding. As stated above, there is low confidence
is where the heavy precipitation will fall as models are in disagreement.
It is also foolish to state that 10.1 miles southwest of Dodge City
will see 1.34" of rain between 18Z today and 12Z tomorrow morning, as
this simply isn`t effective meteorology. We just don`t have that skill
to do that. Bottom line, if a storm festers over you, you could easily
see an 1"+ of rain, while your neighbor might see practically squat.
Lastly, SPC has some of the area in a 5 percent tornado, although I`m
not sure about that given weak 0-1 km bulk shear and any significant
STP is well south of the forecast area. This isn`t the environment for
discrete supercells but an amorphous blob of convection.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
For Saturday, some minor upper level disturbances are forecast
across the Central and Southern Plains with a cold front and
baroclinic zone south across west Texas into Oklahoma. A marginally
severe MCS will likely track south of Kansas along the baroclinic
zone with the best chances for thunderstorms across southern Kansas.
Highs on Saturday look fairly cool, with mostly cloudy skies, in the
mid to upper 70s.
For Sunday, a more substantial upper level trough moves across the
Plains on Sunday night with the ECMWF model showing thunderstorms
likely with another MCS while the GFS has most of the heavy rainfall
over far western Kansas. Current thoughts are severe chances do not
look all that good with moist adiabatic lapse rates. May need to
adjust precip chances upwards as the ECMWF shows heavy rainfall
potential. Highs still look fairly cool and only in the 70s.
For the period Monday into Thursday, a warming trend is in the
offing with highs warming back into the 80s Tuesday into Thursday
with lows in the 60s. Thunderstorms chances look minimal as an upper
level trough moves east of the region and minor upper level ridging
moves back into the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
Generally unsettled conditions through the TAF pd. MVFR cigs expected
this morning with lower clouds and/or reduced vis from br. Some morning
convection around, but low confidence in spatial and temporal arrangement.
Even more uncertainty towards the end of the TAF pd where more overnight
convection likely late tomorrow night. Will let later TAFs hammer those
details out due to confidence issues.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 63 78 60 / 70 80 40 40
GCK 83 62 76 59 / 70 70 40 40
EHA 82 62 78 59 / 70 70 50 50
LBL 84 63 79 61 / 70 70 50 50
HYS 83 62 77 59 / 70 80 50 30
P28 84 66 81 64 / 70 80 50 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
123 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2014
...Update to short term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...Unsettled and potentially very wet through the short term...
Some of you may be looking at the above headline and notice the word
wet and remain a bit dubious. We are in the weather pattern period of
scattered thunderstorms/MCS`s and those that experience activity right
over them will see heavy rainfall, while those nearby without thunderstorm
activity will see basically nothing. An example of that occurred last
night where the northern zones saw 4+", while the southern zones saw
0.00". A similar pattern is expected today and tonight. So... a break
down of the short term period:
This morning:
Main concern is watching convection across eastern Colorado. This activity
may impact the western zones early this morning. A secondary band is
possible later in the morning in association with warm air advection
and isentropic lift. The HRRR has indicated this along and south of
the Arkansas river.
Today/Tonight:
Main concern is late this evening. PWATs are forecast to be around 1.50",
which is near the +2SD mark. There is considerable disagreement between
the global models (GFS/EC) and convective allowing models (ARW, 4 km
NAM) in where the MCS will track. Have ramped up pops by late evening
and also increased QPF given the overall trend in the mesoscale pattern
of a heavy rain event. There is the potential for heavy rainfall from
00Z onward. Thermodynamics/kinematics are there for severe weather,
however, I have a few problems with this. First, forecast soundings
are rather moist adiabatic (however, probably somewhat influenced from
convection in the output), however, this leads to somewhat of a thick hail
growth zone, which is not conducive for significant hail growth. MUCAPE
of 1500 j/kg and 40+ kt of effective bulk shear do suggest the notion
of more organized convection, however, mid level lapse rates are not
that steep and upper level winds back with time, which increases precipitation
efficiency near/in the updraft of any organized storm. Given how moist
the atmosphere will be with the lack of upper level wind flow for the evacuation
of hydrometeors downstream, think the overall hail potential for tonight
is not that great. Running the parameters in the LHP algorithm comes
up with a value of 5. This suggests that golf balls would be on the
upper end of the hail size distribution. Other threats would be wet
microbursts of 60+ mph. The most significant threat would be very heavy
rainfall leading to flooding. As stated above, there is low confidence
is where the heavy precipitation will fall as models are in disagreement.
It is also foolish to state that 10.1 miles southwest of Dodge City
will see 1.34" of rain between 18Z today and 12Z tomorrow morning, as
this simply isn`t effective meteorology. We just don`t have that skill
to do that. Bottom line, if a storm festers over you, you could easily
see an 1"+ of rain, while your neighbor might see practically squat.
Lastly, SPC has some of the area in a 5 percent tornado, although I`m
not sure about that given weak 0-1 km bulk shear and any significant
STP is well south of the forecast area. This isn`t the environment for
discrete supercells but an amorphous blob of convection.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
The first few days of the extended period will continue to be fairly
active across the central High Plains. The 12z medium range models
continue to show an active southern branch of the westerlies
extending from off the coast of southern California eastward into
Kansas. In the lower levels, a quasi stationary frontal boundary
continues to extend from the eastern slopes of the Rockies in
Colorado eastward across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles eastward
across Oklahoma. Moist southerly flow from the Gulf continues to
advect northward into the central Plains. The models show this setup
continuing for a few more days.
Friday evening and night may be the most active time periods for
southwest Kansas storm-wise as a weak upper disturbance that is
currently approaching the west coast will move out over the central
High Plains. The models show some differences in how soon
thunderstorms will be developing and thunderstorm initiation and
movement out into western Kansas may not occur until evening. After
discussing the situation with the short term forecaster, we will
continue to have pops ramping up during the afternoon hours with
fairly high pops continuing through much of the evening before
tapering off late Friday night. There could be some lingering
showers and thunderstorms in central and south central Kansas
Saturday morning but think that these will be moving off to the east
fairly quickly.
There looks to be a lull in the activity during the day Saturday
with another round of storms moving off the eastern slopes and Raton
Mesa and impacting mainly the southern part of southwest Kansas
Saturday evening. For Sunday into Monday, upper level ridging builds
into the west coast of North America while a shortwave trough over
the northern Rockies moves southeast into the central Plains. This
system will likely bring another round of thunderstorms to western
Kansas Sunday evening into early Monday morning with precipitation
chances winding down during the day Monday.
Monday night and Tuesday should be fairly quiet as the upper level
ridge moves over the central Plains with increasing westerly flow
aloft by Tuesday night. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
should return Tuesday night as low level moisture along with some
mid level frontogenetic forcing returns to western Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
Generally unsettled conditions through the TAF pd. MVFR cigs expected
this morning with lower clouds and/or reduced vis from br. Some morning
convection around, but low confidence in spatial and temporal arrangement.
Even more uncertainty towards the end of the TAF pd where more overnight
convection likely late tomorrow night. Will let later TAFs hammer those
details out due to confidence issues.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 78 59 75 / 80 40 40 20
GCK 62 76 58 75 / 70 30 40 20
EHA 62 79 59 75 / 70 30 50 20
LBL 63 79 60 75 / 70 30 50 20
HYS 62 77 57 74 / 80 60 30 20
P28 66 82 62 77 / 80 60 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
518 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 518 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
The MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) appeared to be centered near
Pocahontas Arkansas at 5 pm CDT and appears to be hitting the apex
of its northerly component of movement along the Missouri/Arkansas
Border. Most of the LAPS surface bases theta-E, CAPE and,
helicity data for the two hours seems to be focusing the greatest
instability axis into northern Tennessee at this time. However,
given ageostrophic response to this MCV, the impressed frontal
boundary is responding by moving northward ahead of this
circulation. This may adjust the surface/elevated instability
slightly north during the next three hours, at least enough to
warrant a mention of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity
along the border counties north of the Missouri Bootheel and along
the Kentucky border counties with West Tennessee. At this time, am
more concerned with pockets of heavy rain setting up in this area
and wind threat gradually diminishing with the loss of insolation
(sunshine). For now, have just updated the gridded, text, tabular
forecast to reflect a more eastward trajectory of the shower and
thunderstorm activity through at least 00z-01z.
The 4km NAM-WRF (ARW version) and 3km HRRR runs from this afternoon
suggest a similar evolution of the convection, with the NAM-WRF a
little more robust with the convection through 10 pm versus a
downward trend with the HRRR. Both are about 20-30 too far south
with the storm scale convection, but are fairly good considering.
The key later on will what this MCV and associated line of
convection does to the effective frontal boundary. This could have
significant impact on Saturday`s severe convective potential.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
Looks like a rain free night coming up over much of the region as
stationary front draped across AR/nrn MS should keep most of the
activity to our s/w. However, this boundary will lift back to the
n/e during the day Saturday as another mid lvl short wave moves east
from the Plains. Indications are that another MCC type thunderstorm
complex may initiate during the early PM Sat out over MO, then track
ese along the boundary as the afternoon progresses. Best guess right
now is that this complex will affect se MO, sw IL and the wrn tip of
KY later in the afternoon/early evening hours. Shear and instability
should be sufficient to support some severe storm threat, and high
PWATS indicate any storms could produce more locally heavy rainfall.
With the ground already saturated in many areas, will need to
monitor for potential flash flooding where storms may repeat.
Nocturnal convection may then refire as a sfc low pushes east across
srn IL Saturday night. Areas closest to this low path, esp up along
the I-64 corridor, will stand the highest chc of receiving more
storms with very heavy rain. Luckily, this appears to be the least
likely area to get heavy rain/storms during the day Sat.
Once the sfc low and trailing cold front move east of the region
Sun...some drier air should work in from the nw and bring most rain
chcs to an end Sunday/Sunday night. The break may be short lived
however.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
Unsettled weather pattern will continue through the extended
forecast. Both ECMWF and GFS show low pressure over southeast
Kansas at 00z Tuesday, moving only to around KSTL by 12z
Wednesday. Both models produce quite a bit of precip across the
PAH forecast area from Monday through Wednesday, with a very slow
tapering off from west to east Wednesday night into Thursday. Went
with increasing pops Monday to likely pops for Monday night, then
kept pops in the high chance category through Tuesday night.
Though timing is still a bit in question, ECMWF and GFS are at
least very similar with the track of the low, thus the likely pops
Monday night, and if the models stay consistent, even higher pops
in the Monday night to Tuesday night time frame are probable.
Models finally take the low into the Great Lakes region by 12z
Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually taper off
Wednesday night and Thursday as the low moves farther northeast.
Went with a dry forecast for Thursday night, then models show a
week upper level wave generating some QPF across the area Friday.
Went with slight chance pops for showers and storms for now, but
this system may end up being slower.
Temperatures will remain around seasonal readings through the
extended.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
Stationary front draped across AR/northern MS will likely keep
most of the organized convection southwest of the TAF sites
through the period. Could see more MVFR or possible some IFR vsby
reductions in fog/haze late at night into early in the day Sat.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
129 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS NE OF CROSSVILLE TN SHOWING UP ON MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGE. THERE IS STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE WE COULD SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE TN BORDER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS TN IS A FOCUS OF CURRENT CONVECTION SOUTH
OF NASHVILLE TN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND MOST
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A VERY
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TN BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE CURRENT PRECIPITATION CHANCE
CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOG HAS LIFTED INTO A
LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE BIG SANDY VALLEY REGION AND HAVE MADE SOME
SKY COVER CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER THE STRATUS WILL BE LIFTING AND THINNING FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL
ALSO MAKE NDFD UPDATES BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WITH THE CLEARING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS A FEW HOURS AGO THE
FOG SET IN AND BECAME THICK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE BEEFED IT UP
IN THE GRIDS AND ALSO ISSUED AN SPS THROUGH 13Z TO HIGHLIGHT THE
DENSE PATCHES WITH VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. ALSO
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT T/TD/SKY OBS AND TRENDS
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS. A FRESH SET OF ZONES WERE ISSUED...TOO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO EAST KENTUCKY. THE
REMNANT CLOUDS FROM THE EARLIER MCS OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE ARE
EXITING FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE
HELPED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSH FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
WILL SERVE TO KEEP ANY POP UP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE ROBUST FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN
WITH SOME PLACES SEEING PATCHY DENSE FOG. WILL MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT FOR A POSSIBLE SPS OR NPW LATER IN THE SHIFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY VARY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN SOME
VALLEYS...AND TO THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ARE FOUND IN
THE FAR SOUTH...AND ALSO ON SOME RIDGES. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH AS THE WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT FLAT
RIDGING THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE A SERIES OF TROUGHS PASS
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. RELATIVELY FAST FLOW...WITH MINOR WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN...EXISTS ATOP KENTUCKY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. EARLY
ON...THESE RIPPLES DIVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH ONE MOVING
THROUGH LATE IN THE SHORT TERM HEADED MORE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS
THE SOUTHERN RIDGING BREAKS DOWN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN EARLY ON TO THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...THE
NEARBY FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY AND
COMFORTABLE TODAY AS TEMPS PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AROUND LATE TONIGHT...PROBABLY TO A LESSER
EXTENT THAN TONIGHT GIVEN AN EXTRA DAY TO DRY OUT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE PATCHY FOG QUICKLY BURNING OFF IN THE
MORNING AND THEN DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE
A THREAT OF CONVECTION BUILDS BY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH WHEN THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM AND TONIGHT FOR RELATIVE ELEVATION
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP NEAR GUIDANCE OR BELOW...IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH TODAY AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE BUT
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING AS ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE RIDGES/TOUGHS IN AN
OVERALL PROGRESSIVE AND BROAD CONUS TROUGH LIKE FLOW. CORE OF THE
WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO RUN SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TIER...A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH FOR MAIN STORM TRACKS THAN TYPICALLY FOUND THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES...BOTH
RIDGING AND TROUGHING WILL PASS IN RAPID FIRE FASHION ACROSS THE
AREA AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH OUR CWA WITHIN THE HEART OF
A STORM TRACK CORRIDOR. CONSEQUENTLY EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE INTO
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH AT LEAST SOME TYPE OF THREAT OF RAIN IN EVERY PERIOD. WITH THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN EXPECT A NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND ON
AVERAGE AND A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE BETWEEN MAX AND MINS.
WITH THIS IN MIND BELIEVE THE GFS EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE AN EXCESSIVELY HIGH BIAS...REMINISCENT OF LAST SUMMER. IN
FACT...MODEL/GUIDANCE BLENDS PROVIDE A MUCH MORE REASONABLE RANGE
FOR EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. WILL STICK WITH RAW MODEL AND MOS
GUIDANCE BLENDS FOR TEMPS BEFORE TWEAKING TOWARDS THE TYPICALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER TN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE MS
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SOME FOG IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO
BE AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR JKL. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS TN IS A FOCUS OF CURRENT CONVECTION SOUTH
OF NASHVILLE TN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND MOST
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A VERY
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TN BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE CURRENT PRECIPITATION CHANCE
CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOG HAS LIFTED INTO A
LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE BIG SANDY VALLEY REGION AND HAVE MADE SOME
SKY COVER CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER THE STRATUS WILL BE LIFTING AND THINNING FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL
ALSO MAKE NDFD UPDATES BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WITH THE CLEARING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS A FEW HOURS AGO THE
FOG SET IN AND BECAME THICK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE BEEFED IT UP
IN THE GRIDS AND ALSO ISSUED AN SPS THROUGH 13Z TO HIGHLIGHT THE
DENSE PATCHES WITH VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. ALSO
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT T/TD/SKY OBS AND TRENDS
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS. A FRESH SET OF ZONES WERE ISSUED...TOO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO EAST KENTUCKY. THE
REMNANT CLOUDS FROM THE EARLIER MCS OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE ARE
EXITING FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE
HELPED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSH FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
WILL SERVE TO KEEP ANY POP UP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE ROBUST FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN
WITH SOME PLACES SEEING PATCHY DENSE FOG. WILL MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT FOR A POSSIBLE SPS OR NPW LATER IN THE SHIFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY VARY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN SOME
VALLEYS...AND TO THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ARE FOUND IN
THE FAR SOUTH...AND ALSO ON SOME RIDGES. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH AS THE WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT FLAT
RIDGING THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE A SERIES OF TROUGHS PASS
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. RELATIVELY FAST FLOW...WITH MINOR WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN...EXISTS ATOP KENTUCKY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. EARLY
ON...THESE RIPPLES DIVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH ONE MOVING
THROUGH LATE IN THE SHORT TERM HEADED MORE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS
THE SOUTHERN RIDGING BREAKS DOWN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN EARLY ON TO THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...THE
NEARBY FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY AND
COMFORTABLE TODAY AS TEMPS PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AROUND LATE TONIGHT...PROBABLY TO A LESSER
EXTENT THAN TONIGHT GIVEN AN EXTRA DAY TO DRY OUT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE PATCHY FOG QUICKLY BURNING OFF IN THE
MORNING AND THEN DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE
A THREAT OF CONVECTION BUILDS BY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH WHEN THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM AND TONIGHT FOR RELATIVE ELEVATION
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP NEAR GUIDANCE OR BELOW...IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH TODAY AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE BUT
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING AS ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE RIDGES/TOUGHS IN AN
OVERALL PROGRESSIVE AND BROAD CONUS TROUGH LIKE FLOW. CORE OF THE
WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO RUN SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TIER...A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH FOR MAIN STORM TRACKS THAN TYPICALLY FOUND THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES...BOTH
RIDGING AND TROUGHING WILL PASS IN RAPID FIRE FASHION ACROSS THE
AREA AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH OUR CWA WITHIN THE HEART OF
A STORM TRACK CORRIDOR. CONSEQUENTLY EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE INTO
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH AT LEAST SOME TYPE OF THREAT OF RAIN IN EVERY PERIOD. WITH THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN EXPECT A NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND ON
AVERAGE AND A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE BETWEEN MAX AND MINS.
WITH THIS IN MIND BELIEVE THE GFS EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE AN EXCESSIVELY HIGH BIAS...REMINISCENT OF LAST SUMMER. IN
FACT...MODEL/GUIDANCE BLENDS PROVIDE A MUCH MORE REASONABLE RANGE
FOR EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. WILL STICK WITH RAW MODEL AND MOS
GUIDANCE BLENDS FOR TEMPS BEFORE TWEAKING TOWARDS THE TYPICALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THE FOG SET IN MOSTLY AS EXPECTED...THOUGH A TAD THICKER AT LOZ. LOOK
FOR THE VLIFR AND LIFR FOG TO ALL CLEAR OUT BY 13Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
PUT IN SOME MVFR FOG AT ALL TAF SITES ASIDE FROM JKL FOR LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
118 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The main focus for the short term portion of the forecast package
is on precipitation chances across the southern and southwestern
portion of the forecast area through Friday night.
Keeping an eye on the diminishing precipitation shield north of the
convective band currently pushing east southeast through southeast
Missouri and northeast Arkansas. Not currently expecting that area
of rainfall to make it into our southwest counties, and the HRRR as
well as the RAP depict a similar scenario. However, it does bear
some watching.
Upper level ridging over the south-central portion of the U.S. will
be in place for much of the period. A series of upper waves is
progged to ride the top of the ridge into the Ohio Valley, the first
of which arrives tonight into Friday. The ECMWF and NAM bring the
effects of the wave into the southwest corner of the forecast area
in the way of increased precipitation chances, while the GFS leaves
the entire region dry until the next wave arrives during the
long-term portion of the forecast on Saturday afternoon/evening.
Decided to keep pops from previous forecast remaining in the
slight/low chance pop category. Near normal temperatures are
expected in most areas with highs in the low to middle 80s and lows
ranging 5 degrees either side of 60.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Upper ridging remains located over the south-central portion of
the U.S. to begin the long term period. This will continue with a
series of upper waves to traverse the top of the ridge into the
Ohio River Valley. A higher amplitude trough will approach the
forecast area to begin the work week on Monday as the trough digs
into the Mississippi River Valley. ECMWF and GFS are in fairly
good agreement with this feature, leading to a fairly active
extended timeframe.
Stuck close to regional initialization for POPs...with the highest
POPs on Saturday night and Sunday as the first of many upper
troughs push through the area. Expect shower and thunderstorm
chances to persist through mid-week as the remainder of the upper
disturbances move through the area. Below normal highs with near
normal lows look to be the rule as we head into this unsettled
portion of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2014
High pressure over the Great Lakes will send dry northeast surface
breezes into the Ohio Valley, keeping SDF and LEX weather VFR
through the period.
BWG is a bit more of a question mark, with more abundant low-level
moisture and closer proximity to the likely MCS track. Ceilings have
gone MVFR there, and the forecast will split the difference between
the too-pessimistic-as-usual NAM MOS and the GFS MOS which has not
picked up on this low cloud deck at all. Will keep it above fuel-
alternate thresholds, and then scatter out late morning. MCS that
has developed over the Ozarks should vector ESE into Tennessee,
and remain out of BWG. VFR with light E-NE winds from midday
onward.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........WFO IND
Long Term.........WFO IND
Aviation..........RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
602 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARM DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WAVER AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS AS SHOWERS ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO
CENTRAL MAINE AND THE MIDCOAST REGION AND AWAY FROM IMPINGING
HIGHER PRESSURE. HRRR AND RUC SHOW THESE CELLS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND SHOW THIS TREND THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. USED THE UPS CROSSOVER FOG TECHNIQUE AND INCLUDED FOG IN A
FEW MORE AREAS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW. DAYTIME HEATING HAS
SPAWNED SCATTERED CONVECTION ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL.
SHOWERS WILL END AND CLOUDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SPRINKLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY...OTHER PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WITH APPROACHING RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S...BUT TURNING A BIT COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST AS THE WEAKENING SYNOPTIC FLOW ALLOWS WINDS TO TURN
ONSHORE.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH LOWS
ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM MID 40S TO MID 50S...ALONG WITH PATCHY
LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. FROM TIME TO TIME...A FEW SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE
AND ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SHOULD BE DRY AND
WARM SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL AGAIN FEATURE WARM WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AWAY FROM THE SHORES WITH A FEW POP UP STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE SAME GOES FOR TUESDAY AS WELL AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE MARITIMES WILL LEAD TO
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH LCL MVFR AND
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...LOCAL EARLY MORNING FOG AND HAZE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. SOME POP UP CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS SEEMS LIKE MORE OF A THREAT LATER MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER E. SEAS WILL
HOVER BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN SWELL...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN POSTED OUTSIDE THE BAYS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
LONG TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SCA SEAS TUE-WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TODAY... ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT FOLLOWED BY GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY AT NIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
753 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CLOSED LO
OVER CENTRAL CANADA JUST W OF HUDSON BAY. UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT
H3 JET MAX OVER NW ONTARIO RIDING TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LO
IN CONCERT WITH BAND OF DEEP MSTR/H85-7 FGEN TO THE W OF SFC COLD
FNT STRETCHING ACRS THE WCENTRAL CWA IS CAUSING NMRS SHOWERS OVER
THE WRN CWA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC FNT. DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z GRB RAOB LIMITED THE SHRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT
THRU THE MRNG AND HAS CONTINUED TO DO SO OVER THE ERN CWA...BUT
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING THAT LIFTED TEMPS TOWARD 80 OVER THE
SCENTRAL AND ARRIVAL OF MOISTER AIR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB IN
THE SW LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT THAT LIFTED MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG
CAUSED CONVECTION TO INCRS EARLIER IN THE AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL ZNS
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FNT. MODEST DEEP LYR SHEAR/MID LVL LAPSE RATES
LIMITED THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
DROPPED SOME HVY RA. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS HAS
DIMINISHED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS...ANOTHER LARGER BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND SOME TS ARE LIFTING NEWD THRU NE WI TOWARD HIER
LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE SCENTRAL. THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FNT...THE NNW WIND OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS...AND THE
PCPN HAS DROPPED TEMPS AS LO AS ARND 50 OVER THE WRN CWA. FARTHER TO
THE W...DRIER AIR WITH PWAT UNDER 0.50 INCH IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS/NW MN. SKIES ARE CLR-PCLDY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU UNDER LLVL
THERMAL TROF IN THESE AREAS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TREND OF POPS TNGT AND THEN
FCST TEMPS/MIN RH ON SUN AS DRY HI PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
TNGT...AS THE UPR FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE W ON THE SRN FLANK OF
CLOSED LO TRACKING E INTO HUDSON BAY...DRIER AIR WL OVERSPREAD UPR
MI FM THE W. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET
ROTATING NEWD IN ONTARIO ARND THE CLOSED LO WL LIFT TO THE NE WITH
THE UPR JET CORE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD
CAUSE THE BANDS OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH/LINGERING TS TO END THRU THE
NGT AS THEY SPREAD TO THE E. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE W
CLOSER TO CORE OF INCOMING DRY AIRMASS/ PWAT CLOSE TO 0.33 INCH AND
TRAILING SFC HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/ LIGHTER WINDS. CONSIDERED
ADDING SOME FOG INTO THE FCST FOR THIS AREA WHERE SOME MDT RAIN FELL
TODAY AND IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING UNDER THE MID LVL
DRYING...BUT OPTED NOT TO CONSIDERING SOME FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DRYING
FCST IN THE H95-9 LYR UNDER STEADY H95-9 WIND TO THE E OF APRCHG HI
PRES CENTER THAT IS FCST TO REACH NEAR DULUTH BY 12Z SUN.
SUN...ANY LINGERING CLDS OVER THE SE CWA EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME DIURNAL CU AS HI PRES/
CORE OF DRIER AIR SHIFT OVHD. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO PEAK BTWN 8C
AND 9C...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RISE UP TO 75 OVER THE INTERIOR. LK
BREEZES WL PUSH INLAND OFF MAINLY LK SUP WITH NNW H925 FLOW TO THE S
OF SFC HI PRES BLDG OVER LK SUP IN THE AFTN...RESULTING IN COOLER WX
THERE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FCST N WIND APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG TO
ALLOW MUCH LK MI MODERATION. DEEP MIXING TO H75-8 WL RESULT IN SFC
DEWPTS FALLING INTO THE UPR 20S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTN...WITH
MIN RH BOTTOMING OUT TOWARD 20 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT IN THE AFTN WHERE THE RH WL BE LOWEST AWAY FM LK SUP
MODERATION OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...MITIGATING FIRE WX CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A 1020MB SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS W TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE DAY MON. MODELS SHOW DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE 550-450MB
LAYER...WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLY RESULTING FROM THIS
LAYER AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. HOWEVER...THE SFC HIGH WILL KEEP VERY
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE FROM MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THE ONE EXCEPTION
POINTED TO BY MODELS IS OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI (WHICH WILL BE ON THE
WRN SIDE THE SFC LOW BY MON MORNING) WHERE A THINK RIBBON OF HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN (1000-700MB RH AROUND 70 PERCENT)...THIS
AREA COULD SEE A GREATER AMOUNT OF PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD POPS AS HIGH AS 40 PERCENT CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. LOWERED THE POPS OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN UPPER MI DUE TO
THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND E.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUE...WITH A SFC RIDGE STAYING OVER THE CWA INTO WED.
THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUE.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WED THROUGH SAT...BUT MAINLY WED INTO FRI AS
MODELS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGING WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF BOTH SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE THE DETAILS OF THE PHASING OF THESE
SYSTEM AS WELL. THE GFS IS ON THE WETTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THE GEM AND
ECMWF SHOW LESS PHASING OF THE SYSTEM AND KEEP THE CWA DRIER THROUGH
THE TIME PERIOD. USED A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH RESULTED
IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU. WHILE STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO LOW LEVEL PATTERN DIFFERENCES...FRI AND SAT HAVE
LOWER PRECIP CHANCE THANKS TO INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
-SHRA LINGERING BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KSAW FOR
THE NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE SOME FOG IS PRESENT...SHOULD RESULT IN
OCNL IFR CIGS AT KIWD/KCMX FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. IT IS EXPECTED
THAT DRIER AIR TO THE NW WILL MAKE INROADS INTO THE AREA...RESULTING
IN CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE EVENING AT KIWD/KCMX. WITH
DRIER AIR SLOWER TO ARRIVE AT KSAW...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
LIFR CIGS THRU THE EVENING HRS BEFORE A TREND TO VFR OVERNIGHT. WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT DUE TO MID
LEVEL DRYING AND WET GROUND FROM TODAY`S RAINFALL. VERY DRY AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SO
WINDS THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS. FOG WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT ONCE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVES IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
359 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF UPPER MI THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SD/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THERE WAS SOME DISRUPTION TO
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH FROM MCC ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WAS EVIDENT BY GRAVITY WAVES SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...THE 12Z SUITE
OF MODELS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...SO CONCERNS ABOUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ARE MINIMAL.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH HAS INDUCED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NW WI AND FAR WEST UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THIS EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HANDLED PRECIP PATTERNS WELL OVER
THE LAST 18 HOURS...SO HAVE USED IT TO NARROW IN ON REGIONS OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THE RAP CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST ON SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS HOUGHTON AND AS FAR EAST
AS IMT AND ISHPEMING THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE NE...THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR AND DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
LAGGING 850 HPA TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CLEARING BEHIND THE H5 TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE H8 TROUGH STALLING AND
KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA...SO
CONTINUED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE HEATING
AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA...MORE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR CWA. WEAK S TO SW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE BREEZES
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...AND ALSO KEEP A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT AND
THIS TROUGH HEADS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z SUN AND THIS
TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SAT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. WILL HAVE A BAND OF POPS MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SAT AND SAT
NIGHT AND THEN HAVE THE POPS OUT OF THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON WITH IT
DRY FOR SUN NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS AND LOW LIKELY POPS AS THIS
MOVES THROUGH. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
FOR TEMPERATURES EXCEPT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON SAT
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES AROUND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10C...MIXING THIS DOWN TO THE SFC GIVES ME HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S AT BEST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE DESERT SW
12Z MON WITH A TROUGH IN THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z TUE AND THIS TROUGH STAYS PUT
INTO 12Z WED. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z
THU. A FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SO
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. SCT-BKN MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE THE RULE ALONG WITH ISOLD SHRA AS MID LEVEL TROF SHIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL OF -SHRA
AFFECTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS APPEARS QUITE LOW. LAKE BREEZES WILL
PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA THIS AFTN WITH KSAW
PROBABLY MORE LIKELY TO SEE SHRA IN THE VCNTY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER LOWER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERAL S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF UPPER MI THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SD/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THERE WAS SOME DISRUPTION TO
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH FROM MCC ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WAS EVIDENT BY GRAVITY WAVES SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...THE 12Z SUITE
OF MODELS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...SO CONCERNS ABOUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ARE MINIMAL.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH HAS INDUCED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NW WI AND FAR WEST UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THIS EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HANDLED PRECIP PATTERNS WELL OVER
THE LAST 18 HOURS...SO HAVE USED IT TO NARROW IN ON REGIONS OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THE RAP CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST ON SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS HOUGHTON AND AS FAR EAST
AS IMT AND ISHPEMING THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE NE...THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR AND DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
LAGGING 850 HPA TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CLEARING BEHIND THE H5 TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE H8 TROUGH STALLING AND
KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA...SO
CONTINUED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE HEATING
AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA...MORE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR CWA. WEAK S TO SW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE BREEZES
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...AND ALSO KEEP A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
FRI NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTING
FROM NRN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA NEAR
THE WI BORDER IN THE EVENING...A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND 700-500 MB QVECTOR
CONV INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
250-300 MB JET THAT SLIDES FROM NW ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES BAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI FOR
SOME TSRA...PER MODEL MUCAPE VALUES. HOWEVER...THUNDER IS LESS
LIKELY IN WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SUPPORTED BY 850-700 MB FGEN THAT IS
EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH POPS TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. INCREASING MID CLOUDS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR AS PWAT VALUES
CLIMB FROM NEAR 0.25 INCH TO 0.50 INCH.
MON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PCPN CHANCES GIVEN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DRY GFS/GEM AND WET ECMWF WHICH BRINGS A
STRONGER AND MORE PHASED MID LEVEL TROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS. FOR
NOW...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE(CONSENSUS) POPS WERE INCLUDED.
TUE-THU...A DRY PERIOD IS MORE LIKELY FROM TUE INTO WED AS RIDGING
AGAIN TAKES OVER. A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THU
BRINGS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND
RETURN OF MOISTURE THAT COULD BRING PCPN TO THE AREA. MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT
INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. SCT-BKN MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE THE RULE ALONG WITH ISOLD SHRA AS MID LEVEL TROF SHIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL OF -SHRA
AFFECTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS APPEARS QUITE LOW. LAKE BREEZES WILL
PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA THIS AFTN WITH KSAW
PROBABLY MORE LIKELY TO SEE SHRA IN THE VCNTY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER LOWER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERAL S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
955 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...MOST OF THE ARKLAMISS IS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS
MORNING...BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE JACKSON AREA. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN ALL EYES TURN TO THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER
OKLAHOMA. JAN 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY STOUT CAP
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...BUT SOUNDINGS FURTHER NORTH INDICATE MUCH
WEAKER CAPPING. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT THE MCS WILL WEAKEN
THE FURTHER EAST IT GETS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND THIS LINES UP
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AND ALSO WHAT WE HAVE IN THE HWO AND
GRAPHICAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AN NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES COMES DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MCS COMPLEXES FOR THE PERIOD.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE STOUT MEAN RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE SOME STRONG MCS SYSTEMS WERE MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FIELDS SHOWS THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH. AS FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR KJAN HAD A
STRONG CAP WITH A 700 MB TEMPS OF 17C. NATIONAL AND LOCAL WRF SHOWS
SOME CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA BY 11Z AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME STRONG
CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE DELTA REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE AIDED BY SOME UPSTREAM ACTIVITY COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SPC HAS PUT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ONCE AGAIN.
THE ONLY ISSUE IS HOW FAR SOUTHWEST WILL THE CONVECTION TAKE PLACE
WITH WARM HEIGHTS AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER AND DECENT MIDLEVEL
CAPPING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW
AT 30-40 KNOTS AT TIMES UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NORTH WITH SOME DECENT
UPPER DIVERGENCE. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWS GOOD FLOW AND LAPSE
RATES WITH THE STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MIDLEVEL CAP WEAKENS
SOME IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA. AS THE STORMS PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THEY WILL RUN INTO A STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER FLOW. PWATS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR 2 INCHES FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LAPSE
RATES AND WIND FIELDS ONCE AGAIN FAVOR SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREATS WITH THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH THAT PROVIDES SOME FOCUS.
EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH EVENING HOURS.
IN THE GRAPHICAST AND HWO WILL HAVE ELEVATED CONFIDENCE IN THE
NORTHWEST DELTA AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE OVER THE REST OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA. THE THREATS WILL BE GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL IN THE ELEVATED
AREA AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN THE LIMITED AREA. WIND GUST WILL BE
UP TO 60 MPH.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW. ONCE AGAIN
WE WILL HAVE THE SAME GENERAL PARAMETERS AS TODAY. SPC HAS PUT A
SLIGHT RISK JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUR REGION WILL BE IN
THE 5 PERCENT AREA. SO WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS CROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD OUT OF THE HWO FOR
NOW. FOR NOW MAY GET SOME SUBSEVERE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE WITH COOLER HIGHS OF THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S. FOR
LOWS CONTINUED THE BLEND WITH LOW 69-73. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN
WENT CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO MOS POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH./17/
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS COME INTO CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT STILL PREFER THE ECMWF AS THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LATTER PERIODS.
FLOW PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BAJA ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE A NEAR
ZONAL PATTERN WILL LIE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. DIGGING WAVE MOVING
OUT OF IDAHO SUNDAY LOOKS TO GET ORPHANED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM BUT
WILL QUICKLY BE ADOPTED BY SOUTHERN STREAM JET ROTATING AROUND
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BAJA HIGH CENTER. RAPID DEEPENING OCCURS AS
THE WAVE PULLS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...PERSISTENT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS
REMAINED STRETCHED ACROSS OK/N AR/TN. CONVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE
TO FESTER ALONG THE BOUNDARY. APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
ALLOW A SURGE OF DRY/COOLER AIR TO PUSH ACROSS TX/OK TUESDAY. WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY WANING...LOW CENTER LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN
AND BEGIN FILLING AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TUE/WED.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLOW DOWN AND LOOKS TO STALL
WEDNESDAY OVER MS AND BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY.
GENERALLY WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ABOUT EVERYDAY...BEST IN THE NORTH
AND ON TUE/WED WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY. WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS IN POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH TUE...BUT WENT
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF ON TEMPS/POPS WED/THU. THE GFS SEEMS TO TRAIL
OFF A LITTLE TOO SOON TOWARD CLIMO WITH MID 60S FOR MINS WED/THU./26/
&&
.AVIATION...THE IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED AND VFR CONDS WERE BEING REPORTED AT 14Z. VFR CONDS WL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN BUT A LARGE COMPLEX OF TSTMS OVER OKLAHOMA WL
MOVE ESE AND INTO OUR NW BY LATE AFTN AND THEN MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEVERE WIND AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS. VFR CONDS WL RESUME IN THE WAKE OF THE TSTM COMPLEX THIS
EVENING UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MODELS SUGGEST IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS TODAY WL BE 6-10KTS OUT OF THE SW-S
BUT WL CHANGE OUT OF THE W-NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF TSTM COMPLEX. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 92 72 92 70 / 32 14 24 13
MERIDIAN 92 70 89 70 / 51 20 26 18
VICKSBURG 93 70 92 67 / 21 12 27 11
HATTIESBURG 92 72 93 71 / 20 12 27 10
NATCHEZ 92 72 90 70 / 18 13 18 7
GREENVILLE 88 72 89 73 / 50 28 47 23
GREENWOOD 88 70 88 71 / 50 29 45 26
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1203 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 910 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Making some changes to the forecast for the rest of tonight.
Primarily to PoPs. Looks like focus for convection will be down
across southern Missouri and that the storms up in Iowa which
might have threatened parts of northeast Missouri/west central
Illinois have pretty much died out. With the shortwave moving
rapidly east through the Upper Mississippi Valley, I think
regeneration is unlikely. Latest RAP and HRRR still indicate that
some of the southern convection could clip the far southern
portions of our CWFA overnight, but it looks like the vast
majority of our area should stay dry.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Unsettled weather is expected to continue over the next several
days due to multiple shortwaves interacting with a quasistationary
front as it sloshes back and forth across the region.
Tonight...There are two areas where precipitation is possible this
evening and overnight. The first area is across the northern CWA
within a zone of ascent ahead of an elongated mid/upper trough
moving through the northern plains. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA have
already developed along an upstream surface trough/front in NE/KS
aided by ascent from this trough, and the precip could move
eastward into northeast MO/west central IL if it persists.
However, the H5 trough axis is forecast to move quickly eastward,
and upstream SHRA/TSRA may not persist long enough to reach the
LSX CWA in the absence of upper level support.
The second area is across the far southern CWA where a developing
LLJ should interact with a quasistationary front across southern
MO, leading to another MCS tonight. The position of the synoptic
scale quasistationary boundary has been pushed farther south by a
mesoscale outflow boundary from the large MCS which moved across
southwestern MO earlier today. Initial thoughts are that today`s
MCS will have pushed the effective boundary far enough south that
the main precip threat from an MCS during the overnight hours
should be south of the CWA, although there is uncertainty about
the location of scattered WAA pcpn. This fits reasonably well with
forecasts from the local WRF, GFS, and ECMWF regarding placement
of MUCAPE and H7-H85 moisture convergence. The areal coverage of
likely PoPs has been reduced accordingly, although it may still be
too high depending on where the MCS forms.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Friday through Sunday...There may be a brief break in the
precipitation on Friday due to shortwave ridging aloft across most
of the area. Scattered SHRA/TSRA remain possible across the
southern CWA due to the presence of a boundary and weak
shortwaves.
High pressure moving out of Canada will push a cold front into the
northern and central plains on Fri night and Sat, but this
boundary appears to remain distinct from the quasistationary
front/developing warm front located farther south, at least
initially. In any event, precipitation should spread across the
area on Sat/Sat night due to a combination of factors associated
with an approaching shortwave, starting with a developing H85 LLJ
on Fri night which will interact with the quasistationary boundary
across MO/KS, leading to increasing precipitation chances by
daybreak as the shortwave progresses eastward. Isentropic ascent
also increases along the 305-315 K surfaces during the day on Sat
as the boundary starts to lift north as a warm front. Models have
been consistently showing that this shortwave also induces a
surface low along the western part of the stalled boundary (which
may have been reinforced by the cold front dropping south out of
the northern plains) which then tracks northeastward through MO
into IL. Forecast PW values of 1.8-2" on Sat are at +2 SD for June
across this part of the country, suggesting that locally heavy
rainfall is possible. The precipitation should taper off on late
Sat night with the passage of the shortwave. Another shortwave may
or may not approach the area on Sunday, but it is difficult to
discern whether this feature is a shortwave or the result of
convective feedback.
Monday through Wednesday...Compared to the 04/12z runs and the
05/00z runs, the 05/12z model runs have come into astounding
agreement regarding the large scale pattern during Mon-Wed.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all show a closed low developing over the central
CONUS after two vort maxes become phased over MO/AR/IL. Despite
the remarkable agreement between models, I am hesitant to buy into
this solution right away because it seems unlikely that all of the
models are accurately capturing the timing and placement of weak,
unsampled, and occasionally ill-defined shortwaves this far in
advance and in the presence of convective feedback issues. Due to
low confidence, this forecast package generally followed the
recommended CR initialization for Mon-Wed.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Latest surface analysis shows convective generated outflow
boundary continues to extend from north-central Oklahoma through
far northwest Arkansas then southeast into northern Alabama. This
front will begin to move northeast late Friday evening and early
Saturday morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Clear skies will give way to lower
visibilities in light fog after 0900 UTC Scattered to borken layer
of stratus around 010 kft may form after 0900 UTC. Stratus clouds
will give way to scattered clouds above 030 kft after 1400 UTC.
Winds will be light and variable.
RP
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
748 PM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...A LINE OF THUNDERSHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN. EXPECTED SHOWERS TO LESSEN IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. PROTON
CU FIELD POPPED UP TODAY BUT THE ONLY RADAR RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE COMING IN OUR OF CANADA. NO REPORTS OF ACTUAL RAIN HITTING THE
GROUND THOUGH. NAM, GFS, HRRR AND SREF SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE AND MILD DAY WITH A WEAK LEE SIDE TROF
DEEPENING OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE ND BORDER BUT AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND THE BETTER ENERGY IS
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF US.
ON MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL ALBERTA WORKS ITS WAY EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WE GET THE LEE TROF PASSAGE THAT REALLY KICKS THE
WINDS UP. AT THIS POINT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET
ON MONDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE NAM
IS WANTING TO PUT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SHOULD BE PRETTY
WARM COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS ON MONDAY WITH 850 MPH TEMPS
RISING FROM 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE WARM FRONT.
FRANSEN
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME
IS VERY GOOD. FELT IT WAS WARRANTED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE
DETAIL IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW
DISTINCT DISTURBANCES ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE BETTER SHAPE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER OUR NE ZONES...BUT THAT
MIGHT BE EVEN TOO GENEROUS.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FLOW ACROSS MONTANA. MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING PRECIP
FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EJECT NE THROUGH OUR CWA...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND THE DETAILS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. SEEMS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SEVERE COULD OCCUR AS AN
AXIS OF MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA PRE
THE GFS FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE THE COOL
PERIODS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT. A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE FEATURE
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL APPROACH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA PVA AS WELL AS
ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME IN THE
GRIDS. THAT SYSTEM WILL DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS AND SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS
MAY BE A DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS
DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A LONE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CAN PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED ASCENT.
IT MAY BE THAT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO HONE IN ON A DRY
PERIOD AND REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY FOR AT LEAST A SMALL PORTION OF
THE MIDWEEK.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ASHORE AND
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ESTABLISHED AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
TAKE AIM AT NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE 07/00Z ECMWF INTRODUCES A NICE
THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN PARTICULAR NEXT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THINGS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AROUND HERE AS SHORTWAVES
APPROACH THAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS DEPICTED BY PRESENT MODEL
GUIDANCE VERIFY. STAY TUNED. MALIAWCO
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE.
SYNOPSIS...A LEE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DRAGGING
EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ISOLATED MVFR IS POSSIBLE FROM VISIBILITY OBSCURATION WITH THE
SHOWERS BUT TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO PLACE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS.
AREA WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE.
GAH
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
1131 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DID AN UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS AROUND THE
LITTLE ROCKIES. THE MODELS DID WELL WITH THE PRECIP IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE ALL MISSED THE RAIN THAT CAME INTO
PHILLIPS COUNTY. HRRR MODEL IS NOW SHOWING IT BUT DIDN`T HAVE IT
THERE TWO HOURS AGO. SHOWS THAT IT DOESN`T EXTEND EAST MUCH AND IS
GONE BY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
INCLUDE WHETHER WE`LL SEE ANY FOG OR NOT TONIGHT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
200 WITH THE PRECIP THEY HAVE GOTTEN. FRANSEN
POP COVERAGE FOR TODAY CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS SCATTERED SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ISOLATED TO THE NORTH. RADAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OF HAVING A LONE SHOWER STRAY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY FAR COOLER TODAY COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL 850MB TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGE IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THE JUNE SUN WILL HELP
BUT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO EXIT AND DIMINISH AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES. ONCE
AGAIN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH NORTHERN ZONES
AS WELL AS DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
A FEW ISOLATED 30S ARE ALSO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THIS
CHANGES ON SATURDAY HOWEVER AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE
+10C. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANCE WOULD EXPECT MAINLY A DRY
DAY BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A LONE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO INITIATE NEAR THE MT/ND
BORDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. RISING 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL ALSO MEAN A CONTINUATION OF THE MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOOK FOR NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY ACROSS MONTANA AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE...COULD
SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A MAINLY DRY
FRONT.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH/LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND LINGERS THERE ON FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER BETWEEN UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (GFS) AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (ECMWF) ALOFT FOR EASTERN
MONTANA FOR THIS PERIOD. EITHER WAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
SYNOPSIS: A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING
SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EVEN MORE SO
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
FROM CANADA WHICH WILL CLEAR SKIES.
IMPACTS: EXPECT TO HAVE A FEW LOW TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY ESPECIALLY AT KGDV...BUT THE
MAIN BAND OF RAIN PROBABLY WILL PASS ALONG JUST SOUTH OF KGDV.
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IF NOT CALM THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TAF CYCLE. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
950 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DID AN UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS AROUND THE
LITTLE ROCKIES. THE MODELS DID WELL WITH THE PRECIP IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE ALL MISSED THE RAIN THAT CAME INTO
PHILLIPS COUNTY. HRRR MODEL IS NOW SHOWING IT BUT DIDN`T HAVE IT
THERE TWO HOURS AGO. SHOWS THAT IT DOESN`T EXTEND EAST MUCH AND IS
GONE BY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
INCLUDE WHETHER WE`LL SEE ANY FOG OR NOT TONIGHT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
200 WITH THE PRECIP THEY HAVE GOTTEN. FRANSEN
POP COVERAGE FOR TODAY CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS SCATTERED SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ISOLATED TO THE NORTH. RADAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OF HAVING A LONE SHOWER STRAY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY FAR COOLER TODAY COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL 850MB TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGE IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THE JUNE SUN WILL HELP
BUT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO EXIT AND DIMINISH AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES. ONCE
AGAIN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH NORTHERN ZONES
AS WELL AS DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
A FEW ISOLATED 30S ARE ALSO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THIS
CHANGES ON SATURDAY HOWEVER AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE
+10C. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANCE WOULD EXPECT MAINLY A DRY
DAY BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A LONE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO INITIATE NEAR THE MT/ND
BORDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. RISING 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL ALSO MEAN A CONTINUATION OF THE MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOOK FOR NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY ACROSS MONTANA AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE...COULD
SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A MAINLY DRY
FRONT.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH/LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND LINGERS THERE ON FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER BETWEEN UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (GFS) AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (ECMWF) ALOFT FOR EASTERN
MONTANA FOR THIS PERIOD. EITHER WAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.
SYNOPSIS: A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING
SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
FROM CANADA WHICH WILL CLEAR SKIES.
IMPACTS: WILL SEE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY ESPECIALLY AT KGDV. LOOK FOR NORTHERLY
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
TRENDING TOWARDS PARTLY SUNNY AND A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND DOMINATES THE NORTH
COUNTRY`S WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARM SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1217 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW EXITING THE REGION TO OUR EAST. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES...WITH 995MB SFC LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA. WE/LL CONTINUE
TO SEE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SOME EMBEDDED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN GREEN MTNS. KCXX SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER...IN AN AREA OF 200-300 J/KG SBCAPE
PER RUC ANALYSIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SSEWD AFFECTING THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NRN GREEN MTNS NEXT 1-2 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...BUT A FEW PEEKS
OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NW AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTN 15-20 MPH. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO...LOOKING AT UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE VERY
SUMMER-LIKE WITH GENERALLY CLEAR NIGHTS...A FEW DIURNAL MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE. LOWS FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE IN THE
50S...AND HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT FRIDAY...A REVIEW OF THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS UNFORTUNATELY DOESN`T INCREASE MY CONFIDENCE IN REGARD
TO SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST TRENDS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS WEEKEND`S RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC TO HOLD RATHER
TOUGH AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH
INDICATIONS THAT THE MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL BE MORE WESTERLY ALONG
WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL INITIALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER PLAINS/NRN GREAT
LAKES NOW APPEARS TO LIFT OUT/DAMPEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN RIDGE SUCH THAT ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
ESSENTIALLY WEAKENS/WASHES OUT OVER TIME. MODELS HAVE RESPONDED TO
THIS CHANGE BY SHOWING MORE DISORGANIZED/NEBULOUS AREAS OF AIRMASS
CONVECTION POPPING HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD...SO NOT MUCH OF A CONFIDENCE
BUILDER IN ATTEMPTING TO PROJECT BEST THREAT OF CLOUDS/SHOWER
THREAT. TO KEEP AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WILL MAINTAIN THE
IDEA FOR AT LEAST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER DURING THESE
EARLY WEEK PERIODS AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR
NORTH...BUT REALLY NOT THAT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. IN
FACT MUCH OF THE TIME FRAME MAY END UP BEING DRY GIVEN RELATIVE
LACK OF DYNAMICAL FORCING IN THE BROADLY CONFLUENT ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW AND ONLY MODEST PBL INSTABILITY. TIME WILL TELL AND AS
WE PROGRESS TOWARD NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES. WITH THE GENERAL LACK OF AIRMASS
CHANGE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY FROM 75-80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CRNT SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS
OUR TAF SITES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT.
OBS SHOW A COMBINATION OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS AT MSS/MPV AND SLK ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLOUDS.
SOUNDINGS AND LATEST VIS SATL PICS SUPPORT A SLOW CLRING TREND
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BY
00Z THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 20 KNTS THIS AFTN...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE NOT MENTIONED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LLVL
WINDS AND AMOUNT OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING
NORTHWEST SFC FLW...BUT CRNT SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 50S MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES FOR
SAT THRU MONDAY. A WEAK SFC TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY ALOFT MAY
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1222 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
TRENDING TOWARDS PARTLY SUNNY AND A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND DOMINATES THE NORTH
COUNTRY`S WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARM SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1217 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW EXITING THE REGION TO OUR EAST. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES...WITH 995MB SFC LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA. WE/LL CONTINUE
TO SEE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SOME EMBEDDED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN GREEN MTNS. KCXX SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER...IN AN AREA OF 200-300 J/KG SBCAPE
PER RUC ANALYSIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SSEWD AFFECTING THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NRN GREEN MTNS NEXT 1-2 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...BUT A FEW PEEKS
OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NW AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTN 15-20 MPH. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO...LOOKING AT UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE VERY
SUMMER-LIKE WITH GENERALLY CLEAR NIGHTS...A FEW DIURNAL MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE. LOWS FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE IN THE
50S...AND HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT FRIDAY...A REVIEW OF THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS UNFORTUNATELY DOESN`T INCREASE MY CONFIDENCE IN REGARD
TO SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST TRENDS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS WEEKEND`S RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC TO HOLD RATHER
TOUGH AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH
INDICATIONS THAT THE MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL BE MORE WESTERLY ALONG
WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL INITIALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER PLAINS/NRN GREAT
LAKES NOW APPEARS TO LIFT OUT/DAMPEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN RIDGE SUCH THAT ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
ESSENTIALLY WEAKENS/WASHES OUT OVER TIME. MODELS HAVE RESPONDED TO
THIS CHANGE BY SHOWING MORE DISORGANIZED/NEBULOUS AREAS OF AIRMASS
CONVECTION POPPING HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD...SO NOT MUCH OF A CONFIDENCE
BUILDER IN ATTEMPTING TO PROJECT BEST THREAT OF CLOUDS/SHOWER
THREAT. TO KEEP AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WILL MAINTAIN THE
IDEA FOR AT LEAST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER DURING THESE
EARLY WEEK PERIODS AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR
NORTH...BUT REALLY NOT THAT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. IN
FACT MUCH OF THE TIME FRAME MAY END UP BEING DRY GIVEN RELATIVE
LACK OF DYNAMICAL FORCING IN THE BROADLY CONFLUENT ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW AND ONLY MODEST PBL INSTABILITY. TIME WILL TELL AND AS
WE PROGRESS TOWARD NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES. WITH THE GENERAL LACK OF AIRMASS
CHANGE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY FROM 75-80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...SCT/BKN MVFR/VFR CIGS FROM 020-050 AGL
TRENDING VFR FROM 040-080 AGL BY 15Z...THEN SCT/SKC BY 00Z.
LINGERING -SHRAS/SPRINKLES ALSO POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KRUT THROUGH 14Z
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. WINDS
TRENDING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTER
14/15Z BEFORE TRENDING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12 SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER AND ASSOCIATED
BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS. WEAK WEATHER FEATURES AND MODEL DIFFERENCES
LEAD TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT KMPV/KSLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
822 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS PIEDMONT
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT STILL JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT FRONT...NEAR WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWED BETTER 850MB CONVERGENCE AND CERTAINLY GREATER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. BASED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND CURRENTLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EVEN TOWARD
THE YADKIN RIVER MAY BE DIFFICULT. THE RAP IS BASICALLY DRY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LATE AT NIGHT TRYING TO
DEVELOP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. WHILE THIS
POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY NON-ZERO...IT SEEMS THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT JUST WEST OF THE YADKIN
RIVER WHERE THE GFS FORECASTS RIDGING OF 1.5 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING NORTH BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. HAVE
OPTED FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN SOME OF THE MORE TYPICAL COOLER AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DRIER AIR
AND FEWER CLOUDS RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD BE. IN TERMS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY TONIGHT...THEN AREAS OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE OF
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF
LOWER CLOUDS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST THE SOUTHERN END OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY. THE BEST JET
SUPPORT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD BE NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...
WITH AN INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING OVER 1.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...TO RESULT
IN SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ALSO SUGGEST THE LIFT AND
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TEND TO WEAKEN WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION...SUCH THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FROM U.S. 1 WEST. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS MOISTENING
THEN...BUT THOSE SAME SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDER. FARTHER WEST...LAPSE RATES ARE BETTER...BUT ONLY TO 6C/KM
OR SO...AND LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY A DEGREE OR THREE
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE AT OR BELOW 400J/KG OVERALL.
WITH THIS IN MIND...ALONG WITH ONLY MODEST 850MB WINDS...WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
HIGHS SATURDAY 80 TO 85 OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS IN GENERAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.
THE NAM AND THE GFS TEND TO DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AND WITH HPC SUGGESTING A BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS COMPARED
TO THE NAM FOR THE 12Z CYCLE HAVE LEANED MUCH MORE TOWARD THE GFS
FOR THE FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DRY THE MEAN AIR
MASS QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THIS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS ESSENTIALLY CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. EVEN THE NAM...WITH
ITS DIFFERENCES FROM THE GFS...SHOWS K INDICES FALLING GREATLY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AFTER
A LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE MID-LEVELS WARMING SUPPORTING A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR
IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
AND THEN...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALWAYS HESITATE TO REMOVE CHANCES SO MUCH...BUT THE
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM U.S. 1 ON WEST ARE SO DRY AND
CAPPED IT IS DIFFICULT NOT TO AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE POPS THERE ARE
VERY LOW AS WELL. AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S...
HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH A 90 POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SW-NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ALONG
WITH A MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
TRIGGER/SUSTAIN MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST-NE. EXPECT
BULK OF CONVECTION TO DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WITH A WARM MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MUGGY WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE 60S...AROUND 70 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A S/W RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MODEST INCREASE IN THE HEIGHTS ALOFT MAY
INITIALLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STRONG INSOLATION
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE AND SUSTAIN RANDOM CONVECTION
LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. WITH THE CORE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AVERAGE A SOLID 3-6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS NEAR 90-LOWER 90S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE INCREASING EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY THIS PERIOD. THE S/W RIDGE
MOVES EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP SLY FLOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS DEEP SLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT A MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS INTO CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITHIN
THIS FLOW WILL LIKELY BE A SERIES OF PERTURBATION LIFTING NWD. WHILE
TIMING OF THESE PERTURBATIONS THIS FAR OUT IS PURE FOLLY...IF A
PERTURBATION PASSAGE COINCIDES WITH MAX HEATING...THIS WOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT POP CHANCE TO NO HIGHER THAN
40 PERCENT. BUT AS TIMING ISSUES BECOME BETTER DEFINED...COULD SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AS SHEAR
APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUITE A BIT
OF LIGHTNING ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL START HOT WITH HIGHS PROJECTED NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S. INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT INSOLATION LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THOUGH IT WILL BE
COOLER...THE MUGGY AIR MASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MOST
INDIVIDUALS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM SATURDAY...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW OF SEEING ANY
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THOUGH.... WITH KGSO AND KINT STANDING THE
BEST CHANCES AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS... WILL ONLY GO WITH A
TEMPO GROUP AT KGSO AND KINT FOR MVFR CIGS IN THE 10 TO 14Z TIME
FRAME. AT KRWI... WE SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE HIGH
TONIGHT TO YIELD LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. THIS COMBINED
WITH LOCAL AFFECTS SHOULD YIELD AT LEST SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT
FOG PRONE KRWI. THUS... EXPECT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME MVFR-IFR
VISBYS... WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIFR CONDITIONS... DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY...
HELPING TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE THE HIGHEST AT KGSO AND KINT. THUS... HAVE ADDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT
KGSO/KINT... WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WITH ANY SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS (ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN).
OUTLOOK: AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS SEEM MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK... SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA... WITH KFAY AND KRWI
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEE ANY CONVECTION ON MONDAY. THEN
CHANCES FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXIST AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE RAIN OCCURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
956 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
AND LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM FRIDAY...FORECAST CURRENTLY PRETTY WELL ON TRACK.
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO AFTERNOON POPS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 3KM
HRRR AND RAP MODELS...WHICH SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT 17Z OR 18Z. THIS AREA
IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COULD
ALSO SEE SOME SEA BREEZE INTERACTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...LOW CHC POPS WILL
LINGER OVER SRN SECTIONS THIS EVENING...THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHC ALONG
S COAST OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK LOW PRES MOVING ALONG STALLED FRONT TO
S. LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRY AIR
FROM N...ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO LOW-MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC SAT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST SUN...WHILE A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MHX CWA.
DETERMINISTIC 05/00Z MODEL SUITE REMAINS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THE
TREND WHICH REMOVES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL RANGE 1390-1400 METERS SAT AND SUN UNDER LIGHT NE/E
FLOW...YIELDING MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MON AND STALL
OR WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS MON AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS MODEST
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS FROM ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MON TO A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUES INTO THURS.
EXPECT BIGGEST PRECIP CHANCES WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CONVECTION WANING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH 80S ALONG THE
COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND VFR EXCEPT FOR
LINGERING MVFR CIG AT KOAJ. AFTER CIG LIFTS THERE...VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR VCTS KOAJ THIS AFTN. FRONT
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST S OF AREA THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER AREA FROM N. MVFR PSBL AGAIN AT KOAJ OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING MSTR NEAR STALLED FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. CAN EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE TO E
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING S MON INTO TUES. TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS POSSIBLE MON THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM FRIDAY...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 5 FEET AT THE DIAMOND
BUOY AND WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM THIS MORNING. FRONT
HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT EXTREME SRN-MOST WATERS WITH NE WINDS
OBSERVED ALL BUT CAPE LOOKOUT AND BUOY 30 SE OF NEW RIVER INLET.
FRONT WILL STALL JUST S OF AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL WEAK
LOW PRES WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. LEANED TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NE WINDS THAN LATEST MODELS...INDICATING SPEEDS
10-15 KT MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE SURGE TO AROUND 15
KT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOR SRN HALF OF WATERS AS SFC WV MOVES
OFFSHORE TO SE.
LEANED TO PREVIOUS FCST SEAS WITH NWPS NOT AVBL AND WW3 UNDERDONE.
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT TODAY AND 2-4 FT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM FRI...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE NE 5-15 KT THIS WEEKEND WITH SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT SE LATE SUN AFTERNOON THE VEER FURTHER TO S
ON MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
S/SSW MON AND TUES 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT THOUGH COULD SEE SOME
4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
740 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND DISSOLVE EARLY
SUNDAY... AS MOIST AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC....WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SANDHILLS. THIS IS ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
FILTER SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHILE RETARDING THE FLOW A
BIT OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN....WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. BY ALL ACCOUNTS...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SC BORDER THIS MORNING...LIKELY
SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL FORCING MAY COME FROM A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY...WHICH CROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
UPSTREAM PERTURBATION AND THE POOLING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOWING
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE PIEDMONT. WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...WITH A LOW END
CHANCE FROM FAYETTEVILLE/CLINTON TO THE SOUTHEAST. MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25KT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. HIGHS 83-88.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT....BUT
LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET WILL END THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THOUGH THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL STAY NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. DEWPOINTS
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NC
COASTAL AREA...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN ACROSS WESTERN NC...WHILE
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC AS MOST NWP SHOWS...THEN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION
TO DRIFTING EAST INTO THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE THE CWA
WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL IN THE 83-87 RANGE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM FRIDAY...
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE DAY CENTERED
JUST OFF THE VA TIDEWATER AND COVERING NE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING. AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE DISSIPATES... THIS FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER TO A
CONFLUENT MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW SUN NIGHT... GETTING US BACK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A FRONT SITTING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MID LEVELS FEATURE WEAK WAVY BUT MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW... WITH ONE POTENT WAVE SHIFTING OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST AND ANOTHER SLOWLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS
FROM THE WEST. PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES (OVER 160% OF
NORMAL) OVER THE WRN CWA WHERE THE MOISTURE FLUX WILL HAVE BEEN OF
LONGER DURATION... AND WITH ASSUMED LIFT ASSISTANCE PROVIDED BY WEAK
DPVA FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORM TO
FORM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN... WORKING INTO THE
FAR WRN CWA... AND WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THIS AREA STARTING SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS ABOVE NORMAL PW SHOULD THEN SPREAD EASTWARD SUN
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE THE WEAK
MID LEVEL FLOW AND DECREASING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO DIMINISHING CONVECTION... THE MINOR DPVA ALONG WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE (RESULTING IN PART FROM THE SLOWLY INCREASING MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND APPROACHING 700 MB
TROUGH) SHOULD KEEP THE COLUMN VOLATILE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO SUN NIGHT OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR ERN CWA... WITH POPS HIGHER WEST THAN EAST... UNDER
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. HIGHS 84-88 AND LOWS 65-69.
FOR MON-THU: MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS OVER THE PLAINS EARLY MON...
WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RISING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER NC
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER BOTH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF THIS WAVE INTO A LOW OVER
MO/AR BY LATE TUE... THEREBY BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
CAROLINAS. SO AS WE HOLD WITHIN A REGIME FEATURING VERY WEAK
STEERING AND HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT... WITH A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH AT
THE SURFACE... EXPECT A BETTER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGY CHANCE OF DAILY
SHOWERS/STORMS MON/TUE... FOCUSED FROM (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. THE MID LEVEL LOW THEN DRIFTS
EASTWARD WED/THU WHILE ELONGATING NORTH-SOUTH... APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS LATE THU. WILL CONTINUE GOOD CHANCES OF DAILY
SHOWERS/STORMS WED/THU AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY INCREASES WITH
PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR TO ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY FROM
SOUTH OF KRCZ ARCING BACK NORTH OF KJNX AND KGSB. STRATUS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IS WILL IMPACT KRDU...KRWI
AND KFAY THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR
THEREAFTER. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL THEN SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FROM KFAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY AROUND 17Z.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...THERE MAY BE SOME REDUCED
VSBYS OR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS POINT AND PROBABILITIES MAY BE HIGHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS SATURDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND DISSOLVE EARLY
SUNDAY... AS MOIST AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC....WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SANDHILLS. THIS IS ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
FILTER SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHILE RETARDING THE FLOW A
BIT OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN....WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. BY ALL ACCOUNTS...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SC BORDER THIS MORNING...LIKELY
SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL FORCING MAY COME FROM A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY...WHICH CROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
UPSTREAM PERTURBATION AND THE POOLING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOWING
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE PIEDMONT. WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...WITH A LOW END
CHANCE FROM FAYETTEVILLE/CLINTON TO THE SOUTHEAST. MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25KT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. HIGHS 83-88.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT....BUT
LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET WILL END THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THOUGH THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL STAY NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. DEWPOINTS
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NC
COASTAL AREA...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN ACROSS WESTERN NC...WHILE
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC AS MOST NWP SHOWS...THEN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION
TO DRIFTING EAST INTO THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE THE CWA
WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL IN THE 83-87 RANGE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM FRIDAY...
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE DAY CENTERED
JUST OFF THE VA TIDEWATER AND COVERING NE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING. AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE DISSIPATES... THIS FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER TO A
CONFLUENT MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW SUN NIGHT... GETTING US BACK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A FRONT SITTING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MID LEVELS FEATURE WEAK WAVY BUT MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW... WITH ONE POTENT WAVE SHIFTING OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST AND ANOTHER SLOWLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS
FROM THE WEST. PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES (OVER 160% OF
NORMAL) OVER THE WRN CWA WHERE THE MOISTURE FLUX WILL HAVE BEEN OF
LONGER DURATION... AND WITH ASSUMED LIFT ASSISTANCE PROVIDED BY WEAK
DPVA FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORM TO
FORM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN... WORKING INTO THE
FAR WRN CWA... AND WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THIS AREA STARTING SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS ABOVE NORMAL PW SHOULD THEN SPREAD EASTWARD SUN
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE THE WEAK
MID LEVEL FLOW AND DECREASING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO DIMINISHING CONVECTION... THE MINOR DPVA ALONG WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE (RESULTING IN PART FROM THE SLOWLY INCREASING MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND APPROACHING 700 MB
TROUGH) SHOULD KEEP THE COLUMN VOLATILE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO SUN NIGHT OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR ERN CWA... WITH POPS HIGHER WEST THAN EAST... UNDER
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. HIGHS 84-88 AND LOWS 65-69.
FOR MON-THU: MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS OVER THE PLAINS EARLY MON...
WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RISING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER NC
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER BOTH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF THIS WAVE INTO A LOW OVER
MO/AR BY LATE TUE... THEREBY BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
CAROLINAS. SO AS WE HOLD WITHIN A REGIME FEATURING VERY WEAK
STEERING AND HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT... WITH A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH AT
THE SURFACE... EXPECT A BETTER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGY CHANCE OF DAILY
SHOWERS/STORMS MON/TUE... FOCUSED FROM (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. THE MID LEVEL LOW THEN DRIFTS
EASTWARD WED/THU WHILE ELONGATING NORTH-SOUTH... APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS LATE THU. WILL CONTINUE GOOD CHANCES OF DAILY
SHOWERS/STORMS WED/THU AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY INCREASES WITH
PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR TO ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW SOUTH IF THE NC/SC
BORDER. A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY POPPED UP NEAR
KRDU...AND WHILE THESE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONE IMPACTING A TAF SITE IS VERY LOW.
INSTEAD...THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD IS SOME PATCHY STRATUS THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...SPREADING AS FAR WEST AS KRDU.
NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS STRATUS SPREADING TO THE SOUTH
AS THE COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS BEEN MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH
NC...MOVES SOUTH. THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO 12Z THIS MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MEDIUM AT THIS POINT.
WHAT STRATUS THAT IS LEFT AFTER SUNRISE WILL LIFT ABOVE 3K FEET AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER WHERE THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL.
OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
931 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
...VERY LITTLE ALTERED FOR THIS UPDATE...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE EVENING WAS TO THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AS SOON AS 9 PM. THEREFORE...INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EXPANDED PRECIP CHANCES EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE LATEST HRRR RUN AND 22 UTC RAP INDICATE THIS AREA OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AS OF 20 UTC...THE SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS WEAK...WITH RATHER LOW COVERAGE OF WEAK CONVECTION
EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INTO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES
EMBEDDED ALOFT IN ZONAL TURNING TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET POSITIONED ACROSS THE
AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...FOCUSED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY. AGAIN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK...AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE...A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC SUITE WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
QUASI-ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ON-AGAIN AND OFF-AGAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
APPEAR TO BE MID-WEEK AND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
LINGERING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY
SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN INCOMING S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. AFTER
THIS...MONDAY DAYTIME LOOKS DRY.
ANOTHER S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MATERIALIZES AND DEVELOPS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA
EAST-NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED OPEN WAVE S/WV TROUGH PUSHING
EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES LOW IF ANY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DECENT AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL IN THE 60S AND 70S THEN SHOULD WARM
THURSDAY-SATURDAY BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KISN THIS EVENING AND KMOT
EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY NEARBY
SHOWERS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
RAIN IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
628 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE EVENING WAS TO THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AS SOON AS 9 PM. THEREFORE...INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EXPANDED PRECIP CHANCES EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE LATEST HRRR RUN AND 22 UTC RAP INDICATE THIS AREA OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AS OF 20 UTC...THE SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS WEAK...WITH RATHER LOW COVERAGE OF WEAK CONVECTION
EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INTO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES
EMBEDDED ALOFT IN ZONAL TURNING TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET POSITIONED ACROSS THE
AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...FOCUSED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY. AGAIN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK...AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE...A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC SUITE WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
QUASI-ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ON-AGAIN AND OFF-AGAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
APPEAR TO BE MID-WEEK AND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
LINGERING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY
SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN INCOMING S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. AFTER
THIS...MONDAY DAYTIME LOOKS DRY.
ANOTHER S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MATERIALIZES AND DEVELOPS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA
EAST-NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED OPEN WAVE S/WV TROUGH PUSHING
EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES LOW IF ANY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DECENT AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL IN THE 60S AND 70S THEN SHOULD WARM
THURSDAY-SATURDAY BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KISN THIS EVENING AND KMOT
EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY NEARBY
SHOWERS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
RAIN IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
101 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH ITS
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
MONTANA AND REACHING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER
LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH
ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING EAST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER IN THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. THIS IMPULSE IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH TIME DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THUS CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD...AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE PRECIP
CHANCES. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. CAPE VALUES DECREASE AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
A RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT RACING AHEAD OF A LINE OF
DISSIPATING CONVECTION ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS STARTING
TO LOSE ITS STEAM THIS EVENING. IT WAS GENERATING GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH OVER THE LAST HOUR. WIND GUSTS ARE NOW AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER
THE GUST FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THE WEAKENING TRENDS...WILL
FOREGO ANY ADDITION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN.
SHIFTING FOCUS WESTWARD...AN AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE
INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE THE EVENING IS OVER.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR WEAKENS THIS ACTIVITY TO SHOWERS AFTER
06Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CASE ANY STORMS STRENGTHEN.
FOR NOW HIGHLIGHTED THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY SOUTHWEST IN THE
HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BELCOURT SOUTHWEST TO
WASHBURN AND INTO GLEN ULLEN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AROUND 30 MPH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 03Z. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS (CAPE AROUND 400 J/KG) ARE TOO LOW FOR THESE STORMS TO
ACHIEVE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STATUS THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG A THETA-E BOUNDARY TO SET
UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN 80+ KNOT JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO
ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CANADA AND BECOME SITUATED
OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA/NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHOULD GENERATE LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL ONLY INDICATE RAIN SHOWER CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO SHOWERS FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA FOR FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR TIOGA IN EASTERN
WILLIAMS COUNTY TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
BE WIDESPREAD. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RANGED FROM 250-1000
J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE WEAK...AND MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC INDICATES LITTLE OR NO
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE IS
NEAR A RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THUS HAVE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 25-30 PERCENT ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LATER TONIGHT...MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
UTAH IS PROGGED TO ENTER WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER
MONTANA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT`S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SET UP AN OVERRUNNING PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST - BUT THINKING A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY EXPECTING SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FEW
SCATTERED BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION AS THE BELT OF WESTERLIES IS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH FORCING/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CONCENTRATED MAINLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP SOME HIGH POPS IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF ND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
CHANCES QUICKLY TAPERING OFF INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FORCING
MOVES FARTHER EAST. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT
SHOWERS/VIRGA DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH MODELS
PORTRAYING SOME WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY...MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S
ACCOMPANYING HIGH PRESSURE.
NEXT UPPER LEVEL S/WV TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE.
ACTIVE FLOW THEREAFTER WITH SEVERAL MORE S/WV`S MOVING THROUGH IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GENERATING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY-THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW UNTIL MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WHEN MID RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A WARMING TREND AND
OUR FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KISN AND KMOT.
HOWEVER EXPECT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS TO
INCREASE...THEN CEILINGS DECREASING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AT AT KDIK WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THESE MVFR
CIGS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD TO KBIS BY
AROUND 15Z AND AT KJMS BY AROUND 18Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST
TO EAST AFT 00Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
915 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI TO REACH WESTERN OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO DURING THE DAY AND THEN WEAKEN. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARD MORNING. STARTED WITH A CHANCE IN THE WEST AT 09Z AND HAVE
FDY LIKELY BY 11Z. WEST CLOSE TO MAV TEMP GUIDANCE WEST TONIGHT BUT
BELOW GUIDANCE EAST GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR...HRRR AND RUC GUIDANCE...NOT FINDING MUCH TO
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO BE GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WENT WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY AS LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. CAPES LOWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SO CARRIED
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND THEN DROPPED BACK TO SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW. BEST CAPES EAST HALF ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH NUMBERS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000J/KG SO CONTINUED
WITH THUNDER THERE ALL DAY. LOW MOVES INTO PA IN THE EVENING BUT
BY MORNING MONDAY THE LOW ALTHOUGH WEAKER...WILL STILL BE IN WEST
CENTRAL PA SO WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FAR EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THEN CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEST
HOWEVER SHOULD DRY OUT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE
IN. MONDAY HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FAR EAST JUST GIVEN PROXIMITY
OF THE BETTER MOISTURE BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT A DRY DAY
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MONDAY NIGHT AND UPPER LOW DIGS INTO A
SHARPENING TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE
LOW STRENGTHENS OVER MISSOURI. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROF
DIGGING BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT EAST AT FIRST. DID
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WEST TOWARDS MORNING TUESDAY. FOR THE
DAY TUESDAY...DID GO WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE ADDED MOISTURE AND
THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY CAUSE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY WITH
THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING...THE GFS IS
SLOWER THAN THE CANADIAN MODEL AND THE ECMWF...WENT SOMEWHAT CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS POPS WHICH SIDED WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT. KEPT THE
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...HOWEVER...AS THE TRENDS BECOME
CLEARER...MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE THE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
ADVANCES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND SW PA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN TO OUR
WEST IN IL WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...AND EXTRAPOLATING IT OUT IT
LOOKS LIKE TOL COULD SEE RAIN AS EARLY AS 10Z. FROM CLE EAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEIR COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TSRA. LOOKING AT
MVFR CEILINGS AND CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY EVENING
IN PRECIPITATION AND THEN AGAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL OH AND SW PA. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. DID GO A LITTLE STRONGER ON THE WIND SPEED FORECAST THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS THREAT FOR AN ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL
KEEP THE LAKE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. A FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY CAUSING A THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AVIATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED. WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 00Z. THEREAFTER...SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NRN/WRN OK...AFFECTING KGAG/KWWR
FIRST. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM 00Z
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...BRINGING MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KSPS. FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z...A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
UPDATED...
ADDED A FEW COUNTIES TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH 60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS IN THE DEVELOPING
SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TSRA WILL AFFECT MOST SITES BEFORE 17Z WITH BRIEF GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER
17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
ANYTIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE
BIGGER HAZARD.
CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OUT. A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS CLUSTER AS IT MOVES EAST. THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE CLUSTER...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
WEAKER. THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THAT
MAY PRODUCE HAIL...GUSTY WIND...AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
RATES 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS
WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA. LATEST RADARS
INDICATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MOVING EAST...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THINK THIS CLUSTER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN HAZARD. LATEST HRRR RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND A
FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT
TOO STRONG...WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE FROM OCCURRING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA AROUND 6 OR 7 AM. WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
THIS AFTERNOON...REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS MAY OCCUR...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS WILL
RECOVER AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST. STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...SO STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE GREATER. PINPOINTING
EXACTLY WHERE THIS COMPLEX WILL OCCUR REMAINS CHALLENGING...BUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA HAS THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS
WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES EXIST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WITH SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD EACH DAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.
DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST STORMS AND RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS IN BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE.
FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHICH AREAS WILL GET THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 89 69 81 / 40 40 60 50
HOBART OK 69 90 68 84 / 40 30 60 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 97 71 87 / 20 20 40 40
GAGE OK 67 84 64 77 / 70 40 60 40
PONCA CITY OK 68 85 67 79 / 70 60 60 40
DURANT OK 72 92 71 85 / 30 20 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATED...
ADDED A FEW COUNTIES TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH 60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS IN THE DEVELOPING
SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TSRA WILL AFFECT MOST SITES BEFORE 17Z WITH BRIEF GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER
17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
ANYTIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE
BIGGER HAZARD.
CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OUT. A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS CLUSTER AS IT MOVES EAST. THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE CLUSTER...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
WEAKER. THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THAT
MAY PRODUCE HAIL...GUSTY WIND...AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
RATES 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS
WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA. LATEST RADARS
INDICATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MOVING EAST...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THINK THIS CLUSTER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN HAZARD. LATEST HRRR RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND A
FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT
TOO STRONG...WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE FROM OCCURRING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA AROUND 6 OR 7 AM. WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
THIS AFTERNOON...REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS MAY OCCUR...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS WILL
RECOVER AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST. STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...SO STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE GREATER. PINPOINTING
EXACTLY WHERE THIS COMPLEX WILL OCCUR REMAINS CHALLENGING...BUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA HAS THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS
WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES EXIST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WITH SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD EACH DAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.
DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST STORMS AND RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS IN BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE.
FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHICH AREAS WILL GET THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
MBS
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
536 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE
BIGGER HAZARD.
CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OUT. A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS CLUSTER AS IT MOVES EAST. THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE CLUSTER...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
WEAKER. THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THAT
MAY PRODUCE HAIL...GUSTY WIND...AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
RATES 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS
WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA. LATEST RADARS
INDICATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MOVING EAST...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THINK THIS CLUSTER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN HAZARD. LATEST HRRR RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND A
FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT
TOO STRONG...WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE FROM OCCURRING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA AROUND 6 OR 7 AM. WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
THIS AFTERNOON...REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS MAY OCCUR...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS WILL
RECOVER AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST. STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...SO STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE GREATER. PINPOINTING
EXACTLY WHERE THIS COMPLEX WILL OCCUR REMAINS CHALLENGING...BUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA HAS THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS
WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES EXIST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WITH SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD EACH DAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.
DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST STORMS AND RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS IN BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE.
FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHICH AREAS WILL GET THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 69 89 69 / 90 40 40 60
HOBART OK 92 69 90 68 / 100 40 30 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 74 97 71 / 20 20 20 40
GAGE OK 90 67 84 64 / 70 70 40 60
PONCA CITY OK 85 68 85 67 / 60 70 60 60
DURANT OK 87 72 92 71 / 50 30 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
231 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA. LATEST RADARS
INDICATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MOVING EAST...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THINK THIS CLUSTER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN HAZARD. LATEST HRRR RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND A
FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT
TOO STRONG...WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE FROM OCCURRING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA AROUND 6 OR 7 AM. WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
THIS AFTERNOON...REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS MAY OCCUR...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS WILL
RECOVER AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST. STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...SO STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE GREATER. PINPOINTING
EXACTLY WHERE THIS COMPLEX WILL OCCUR REMAINS CHALLENGING...BUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA HAS THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS
WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES EXIST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WITH SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD EACH DAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.
DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST STORMS AND RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS IN BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE.
FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHICH AREAS WILL GET THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 69 89 69 / 70 40 40 60
HOBART OK 92 69 90 68 / 20 40 30 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 74 97 71 / 20 20 20 40
GAGE OK 90 67 84 64 / 50 70 40 60
PONCA CITY OK 85 68 85 67 / 50 70 60 60
DURANT OK 87 72 92 71 / 50 30 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.AVIATION...
TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESP NEAR AND NORTH OF WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS AT CNTRL/NRN OK SITES
OVERNIGHT AS STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN OK
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO CONT TO
DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD MOVE
IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AFFECTING PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT
THINKING ALONG WITH SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS AND SKY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
AVIATION...
MOIST AND UNSTBLE BUT CAPPED AMS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GENLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. GENLY WILL GO ALONG
WITH SOME OF THE HI RES MODEL DATA WHICH SHOWS MCS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL GENLY USE THAT TIMING
FOR THE TEMPO TSRA GROUPS. SOME RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN
THE MORNING THEN BECOMING GENLY VFR AGAIN AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY.
PREV DISCUSSIION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED INTERACTION BETWEEN A SURFACE FRONT...CAPPING
INVERSION...AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO THE WEST...WILL LEAD TO GREAT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SEEMINGLY THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR OUTLOOK. IT GENERATES
STORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...THEN BRINGS THEM
EAST WHILE CONVERTING THEM INTO AN MCS. IF THIS HAPPENS...MOST OF
OUR OKLAHOMA COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE RAIN...AND POSSIBLY STRONG
WINDS.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAKS ARE LIKELY. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE TIMING AND LOCATION. CHANCES DO
RISE...HOWEVER...OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVES PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA ON
TUESDAY...PROBABLY BRINGING A RELATIVELY MILD AND DRY DAY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 91 73 88 / 50 40 40 40
HOBART OK 72 98 72 91 / 40 20 40 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 100 74 100 / 30 10 20 20
GAGE OK 67 91 69 83 / 50 40 70 40
PONCA CITY OK 72 85 72 84 / 60 50 70 60
DURANT OK 74 94 73 92 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
700 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THREE AREAS OF CONCERN FOR ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY. STRONG HEATING INTO
THE 80S AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING THREE BOUNDARIES TO BECOME A POTENTIAL
CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL
POSE THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. FURTHER NORTHEAST...A SECOND
AREA OF CONCERN WILL FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. AGAIN...THIN ELEVATED
CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED HERE...HOWEVER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER IN THIS AREA. STILL THINK HAIL TO GOLF
BALL SIZE AND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT NEAR HIGHWAY 14. THE THIRD AREA OF CONCERN IS
MORE OF A WILD CARD. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED NEAR THE I29
CORRIDOR AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY. PER USUAL...MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE SOMEWHAT HINTING AT
CONVECTION NEAR THE IOWA AND MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS
WILL IMPACT THINGS...ONLY ADDED SCATTERED MENTION OF STORMS HERE.
LIKE THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...SHEAR IS LESS IMPRESSIVE BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM - SO WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AREA AS WELL. WITH A LATER START EXPECTED TO THE WET
WEATHER AND GOOD HEATING...DID BUMP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HALF INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE BACK OVER AN
INCH SO ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
QUITE A BIT COOLER IN OUR WEST AND NORTH...AS COOL AS NEAR
50S...HOWEVER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY. PROBABLY WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. AS
THE WAVE MOVES EAST...WE BEGIN TO SEE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION THREAT BY AFTERNOON.
STILL WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
HELPING LOW STRATUS STICK AROUND. ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
60S...AND IF THE STRATUS ENDS UP A BIT THICKER...WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS...WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME 40S FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANOTHER PRETTY GOOD
WAVE AND AREA OF LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE CWA LATER
SUNDAY. SO THINK MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS BOTH THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SEEM
ABUNDANT ENOUGH. REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO WILL JUST GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER FOR NOW. WITH
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN ON SUNDAY...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S.
MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO START
MONDAY...OTHERWISE WOULD EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THOUGH...WITH LOW 70S. WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN ADVECTING BACK INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL UNCERTAIN
EXACTLY HOW GOOD OF A CHANCE THIS IS. BEST UPPER FORCING MAY END UP
SPLITTING OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...HOWEVER A BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY APPROACH OR CROSS THE CWA...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNING BY THIS TIME...THE CHANCE POPS SEEM WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I29 WILL
LIFT THRUOGH 13Z WITH VFR CONDTIONS BECOME PROMINANT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 20Z IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NEAR HIGHWAY 14,,,WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING AFTER 00Z AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTS TO 65
MPH AND LARGE HAIL. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
STORMS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
428 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THREE AREAS OF CONCERN FOR ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY. STRONG HEATING INTO
THE 80S AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING THREE BOUNDARIES TO BECOME A POTENTIAL
CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL
POSE THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. FURTHER NORTHEAST...A SECOND
AREA OF CONCERN WILL FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. AGAIN...THIN ELEVATED
CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED HERE...HOWEVER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER IN THIS AREA. STILL THINK HAIL TO GOLF
BALL SIZE AND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT NEAR HIGHWAY 14. THE THIRD AREA OF CONCERN IS
MORE OF A WILD CARD. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED NEAR THE I29
CORRIDOR AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY. PER USUAL...MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE SOMEWHAT HINTING AT
CONVECTION NEAR THE IOWA AND MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS
WILL IMPACT THINGS...ONLY ADDED SCATTERED MENTION OF STORMS HERE.
LIKE THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...SHEAR IS LESS IMPRESSIVE BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM - SO WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AREA AS WELL. WITH A LATER START EXPECTED TO THE WET
WEATHER AND GOOD HEATING...DID BUMP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HALF INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE BACK OVER AN
INCH SO ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
QUITE A BIT COOLER IN OUR WEST AND NORTH...AS COOL AS NEAR
50S...HOWEVER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY. PROBABLY WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. AS
THE WAVE MOVES EAST...WE BEGIN TO SEE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION THREAT BY AFTERNOON.
STILL WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
HELPING LOW STRATUS STICK AROUND. ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
60S...AND IF THE STRATUS ENDS UP A BIT THICKER...WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS...WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME 40S FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANOTHER PRETTY GOOD
WAVE AND AREA OF LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE CWA LATER
SUNDAY. SO THINK MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS BOTH THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SEEM
ABUNDANT ENOUGH. REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO WILL JUST GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER FOR NOW. WITH
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN ON SUNDAY...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S.
MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO START
MONDAY...OTHERWISE WOULD EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THOUGH...WITH LOW 70S. WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN ADVECTING BACK INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL UNCERTAIN
EXACTLY HOW GOOD OF A CHANCE THIS IS. BEST UPPER FORCING MAY END UP
SPLITTING OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...HOWEVER A BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY APPROACH OR CROSS THE CWA...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNING BY THIS TIME...THE CHANCE POPS SEEM WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF PERIODS OF CONVECTION AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. COULD
SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF
I-29 BUT SHORT NIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF FOG.
THEREAFTER...LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. DID NOT GET TOO FANCY WITH CONVECTION CHANCES...AND
LEFT MENTION OUT AFTER 00Z DESPITE ONGOING CONVECTION CHANCES
FRIDAY EVENING AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
840 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST BY 10-11 PM. THEREAFTER...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. AT THAT
TIME...LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE MIDSOUTH...WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG ROTATION AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID EVENING
HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH MAY SEE PULSE TYPE SEVERE
WEATHER EARLY AND POTENTIALLY A STRONGER ORGANIZED LINE OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
SUNDAY...AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
TOMORROW...WHERE THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE
A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. TO THE NORTH A SLIGHTLY COOLER/MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY FILTER IN...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS IN
THIS AREA. THE FRONT WILL WAVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FIRST OVER ARKANSAS BY
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
GET PINCHED OFF OVER THE PLAINS AND BECOME CLOSED ON MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OVER THE OZARKS ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE
SLOWLY MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOW...COUPLED WITH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MEAN A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES. FLASH-FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT. HAVE
LEANED MORE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF ON KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LEFT
IN THE SHORTWAVE`S WAKE...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE NIGHT.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSRAS WILL IMPACT KMKL AND PROBABLY KMEM
THROUGH 08/02Z WITH GUSTS OF 35-45KTS AND IFR VSBYS. ATTM LEFT A
VCTS AT KTUP THROUGH 08/03Z. SHRAS/TSRAS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA BY 08/03Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST WITH VFR
CONDS PREVAILING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE WEAK FRONT
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THINKING THAT KMKL...KJBR AND KMEM
SHOULD AVOID MITIGATE LOWER CONDS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS. KEPT SOME LIGHT FOG AT KTUP SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH THERE AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE
MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT TO THE
SOUTH...OR AT LEAST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. KEPT A VCTS AT KTUP
STARTING AT 08/18Z INVOF THE FRONT.
SJM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-
RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
307 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A WEAK BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TYS AND
TRI...EVIDENCED BY A DEWPOINT GRADIENT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE
SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY TODAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN OUR AREA...WITH THE
NAM AND LOCAL WRF SHOWING VERY LITTLE...AND THE RUC AND HRRR SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
SOUTH...BUT STAY IN THE CHANCE RANGE. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OZARKS
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS
ALSO WHERE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE. THUS MOST
CONVECTION IN OUR AREA SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND WILL DROP
POPS BACK AFTER SUNSET.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THUSRDAY)... WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE FOR SATURDAY WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR
CHANCE POPS NEAR BOUNDARY AND FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS/SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
FOR SUNDAY...GFS SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE AND CYCLO-GENESIS MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH BOUNDARY PULLING BACK NORTH. NAM/ECMWF DOES NOT
SHOW THIS SURFACE REFLECTION. WILL CALL FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITH BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO
AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH WEST
OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY POPS
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING. ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...LOCALL HEAVY RAINFALL AND MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GFS MOS OR WENT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN HIGHS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 66 89 69 / 50 30 30 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 64 88 66 / 20 20 20 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 64 88 66 / 20 10 20 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 57 85 59 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1146 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS AT KLBB WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO A
LOW LEVEL JET THAT HAS FORMED. CHANCES OF THUNDER LOOK EVEN LESS
LIKELY AT KCDS TONIGHT WITH MOST IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY MISSING THE
REGION TO THE NORTH. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST TOMORROW EVENING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO KCDS. ALTHOUGH ANY MENTION
IN THE TAF IS NOT WARRANTED AT THE MOMENT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...
SLIGHT COOLING SPREAD IN BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY.
IT HAS BEEN HEATING UP SOME ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NOW
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH FROM AROUND O`DONNELL THROUGH POST TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE. AIRMASS THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
A BIT SHORT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. SHORT TERM RAP SOLUTION...
HOWEVER...HAS INSISTED ON BREAKING THUNDERSTORMS OUT ALL DAY NEAR
ABOVE-MENTIONED BOUNDARY WHICH GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE BASE AND VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT CERTAINLY IS NOT A GIVEN. WE WILL HOLD TO A
CONDITIONAL LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THIS ZONE DURING THE EVENING
WHICH WOULD GIVE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER TONIGHT WOULD FOLLOW THE PATH OF PROJECTED MCS
FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL OUTFLOWS AND THUNDER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY EDGING
INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO LAY ANOTHER FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON OUR DOOR-STEP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A MORE MOIST
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PROBABLY PRECEDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MCS-TYPE STORMS FROM VICINITY RATON MESA OR SANGRE DE CHRISTI
TOWARDS OUR AREA LATE TOMORROW. MINUSCULE TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR
TOMORROW FOLLOWING ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND IMPROVING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GRAZE THE REGION AND
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS IN/NEAR THE AREA.
INITIALLY...FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES MAY RESIDE TO OUR NORTH...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE THE COMPLEX COULD CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY THERE FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD
THEN MATERIALIZE LATE SATURDAY AS THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED SURFACE
BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHWARD AND ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH DETAILS REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS...THERE
APPEARS A GOOD SHOT OF ANOTHER MCS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE NWP TENDS TO FAVOR THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR THIS MCS...AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS
WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...THOUGH IF THE 12Z NAM IS
CORRECT...THE FRONT AND CONVECTION WILL BE SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH
INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND WITH THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW LIKELY TO OUR SOUTH...THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND
UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. MODEST INSTABILITY AND
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING PWATS WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY GRADUALLY WANE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND EVEN THOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL...LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO OUR WEST TO PERSIST INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE TEMPERED BACK POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION FOR
MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN TRY
AND BUILD BACK THIS WAY FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO...THOUGH ONE OR MORE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY COULD PERHAPS
IMPROVE STORM CHANCES LOCALLY. CONFIDENCE ON IF/WHEN STORM CHANCES
WOULD PEAK NEXT WEEK IS LOW...AND HAVE KEPT THE POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY /ASSUMING
THE COLD FRONT IS NOT WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE/...WITH A NICE COOL
DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEHIND THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD FOLLOW NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK...THOUGH THE GFS DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAK FROPA TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 95 65 89 61 / 20 20 40 20 50
TULIA 67 95 67 88 63 / 20 10 30 20 50
PLAINVIEW 69 94 69 92 64 / 20 10 20 20 40
LEVELLAND 68 96 69 95 66 / 20 10 20 20 30
LUBBOCK 71 97 70 96 67 / 20 10 10 20 30
DENVER CITY 67 97 68 99 67 / 20 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 66 96 69 97 67 / 20 10 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 73 99 72 95 68 / 20 10 30 20 50
SPUR 72 97 71 96 68 / 20 10 10 20 30
ASPERMONT 73 100 73 99 70 / 20 10 10 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1140 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Previous terminals still look good. Models this cycle continue to
disagree regarding MVFR ceilings; the NAM is more aggressive than
the GFS. Given limited confidence, continuing MVFR ceilings only for
our southern two terminals looks best.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Stratus return overnight, with MVFR ceilings, continues to look
likely for our southern two terminals. Thus, previous terminals
looked good.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
Mid-level heights have decreased slightly from those observed
yesterday but temperatures continue to climb above normal across the
western half of the Lone Star State. The flow aloft over West
Central TX is light owing to the presence of the subtropical ridge,
but strong westerlies north of the ridge continue to promote lee
troughing, maintaining a persistent, southerly flow. This has kept
dewpoints well into the 60s, which combined with these warm
temperatures, has resulted in heat indices near 100 degrees.
Some enhancement has been noted in the water vapor imagery over the
southern High Plains. There isn`t much curvature in the flow but
mesoscale ascent tied to the right entrance region of the upper
tropospheric jet streak over the Central Plains is the likely
culprit. At the surface, a weak cold front has moved south and was
near a Hobbs, to Spur, to Childress line as of 3 PM. There isn`t
currently much in the way of a cu field along this boundary but it`s
worth noting that the RAP and several of the hi-res CAMS are trying
to develop thunderstorms this evening, mainly west and northwest of
Sweetwater. The cap remains quite strong and any thunderstorm threat
is conditional on surface temps being warm enough to break said cap.
However, given the steering flow being slightly north of west,
convection is unlikely across the SJT CWA and the dry forecast has
been retained. Farther south, expect low clouds to develop again
late tonight, spreading north to near a San Angelo to Brownwood line
by sunrise. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.
The 800-750 mb thermal ridge (with temps of 19-22C) overspreading
the area today is progged to cool by a few degrees on Friday, but
we`ll maintain above normal temperatures once again, with highs in
the mid to upper 90s. Any clouds that develop overnight will erode
by midday, leaving a scattered cu field over the east during the
afternoon hours with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. South winds will
continue at 10 to 20 mph.
Johnson
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
The main forecast concerns are with rain chances Saturday night
through Monday night, with a potential for strong/severe storms
and locally heavy rainfall. Overall, appears that the northeastern
third or half of our area could have the best rain chance and
rainfall amounts.
Will have one additional hot day Saturday, with the broad, flat
ridge aloft still holding in place. This ridge will then weaken and
be suppressed farther to the south and southwest, as weak shortwaves
move across the southern Rockies, southern Plains and Texas.
Models are at odds on whether convection will develop south into
our northern counties Saturday night, and on how far south the
effective surface cold front will sag. Continuing with slight
chance PoP for our northern counties (along/north of Interstate 20).
Low-level jet would help to sustain convection well into the night.
The best chance and coverage of convection across our area looks
to develop across our northern counties late Sunday afternoon,
expanding southeast Sunday night. This may be ehnanced by a shortwave
tracking into the area, and may have a MCS Saturday night sustained
by low-level jet. With uncertainty in the forecast timing and
placement of weak shortwaves and on where the effective front will
be, raising PoPs cautiously Sunday night across much of our area,
with low PoPs continuing on Monday.
Northwest flow aloft develops on Monday and continues through
Tuesday. Have held off carrying slight chance PoP beyond Monday
night, but this will need to be monitored. The setup aloft may be
conducive for showers/thunderstorms to develop over the higher
terrain of northeastern new Mexico during the afternoon hours,
especially especially if coincident with the arrival of a weak
shortwave. The steering flow aloft would allow this convection to
move southeast toward (possibly into) our area.
Still looking hotter and drier for the middle to late part of
next week, when the upper high over the Baja Peninsula and
western Mexico tries to expand northeast again into Texas.
Have trended hotter with the maximum temperatures, but not to
the extent indicated by the GFS.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 73 97 73 96 74 / 10 5 10 10 20
San Angelo 73 98 73 98 73 / 5 0 5 5 10
Junction 72 95 73 94 73 / 0 0 0 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation: Huber
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1109 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.AVIATION...
EXPECTING MVFR STRATUS IN METROPLEX JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BURNING
OFF BY NOON. CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AT WACO.
SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD.
CONVECTION FORMING NEAR PALMER DIVIDE IN COLORADO SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS KS/OK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW
STORMS TRACKING NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AND POSSIBLY
AFFECTING BYP OR UKW NEAR SUNRISE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS
IN METROPLEX THROUGH FRIDAY MIDNIGHT. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW A MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THAT WOULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING FRIDAY. THE RUC KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH
WHILE THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS IS NOT HIGH
BUT 20 PERCENT POPS ARE WARRANTED SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGE TO
THE WEATHER GRIDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE ONLY CHANGE THAT
WAS MADE WAS FOR THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS. UPDATES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM A STRONG MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE PLAINS
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAVE HELPED PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THE FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE IT REACHES OUR CWA...IT REPRESENTS AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE A
FAVORABLE REGION FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS
A LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO AID IN THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG MCS...WE STILL EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY TRY TO CONGEAL INTO A WEAK MCS. SHOULD A MCS
DEVELOP...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF
THIS SYSTEM TO CLIP THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY RESULT WILL BE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER...WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING RATHER UNLIKELY.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL HEAD FARTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH THAT IS PARKED OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO WANDER INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY.
CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL OCCUR BY SUNDAY AS
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO ERODE THE RIDGE FROM
THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY ERODE OVER TEXAS
BY MONDAY...WHICH CERTAINLY IS SOME GOOD NEWS FOR RAIN CHANCES.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS ENOUGH BY THEN IT COULD
ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW WILL SHOW JUST LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER ALTOGETHER. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY WHEN A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO A MCS WHICH WOULD TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 30
TO 50 PERCENT OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY LOOK MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS. SINCE WE ARE EXPECTING A MCS DURING THE COOLER PART OF
THE DAY...THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WINDS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE MCS...SO IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO SAY WHO WILL
GET THIS MUCH RAIN AND WHO WILL BE GREEN WITH ENVY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD END THE CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN JUNE CAN OFTEN RESULT IN SURPRISE RAIN
EVENTS DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS IN THE MODEL DATA THAT THIS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY BECOMES AVAILABLE...WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL THERE IS SOME BETTER CONSISTENCY.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S...AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HIGH TEMPS WILL
COOL A BIT BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION.
THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH JUST A GRADUAL WARMING.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 94 75 94 76 / 5 10 5 5 10
WACO, TX 73 91 73 92 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 72 91 72 91 73 / 10 20 10 10 20
DENTON, TX 75 94 73 93 74 / 10 10 10 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 74 92 73 91 74 / 10 10 10 10 20
DALLAS, TX 75 93 75 93 75 / 5 10 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 76 92 74 93 76 / 5 10 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 73 91 72 91 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 72 91 72 92 74 / 5 5 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 96 71 96 72 / 10 5 5 5 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
857 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MILWAUKEE METRO
AREA...AND SHOULD EXIT KENOSHA BY 03Z TO 04Z SUNDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR SO RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.
AREA OF MAINLY RAIN FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST...AS MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS RAIN WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE...SOON
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BACK EDGE OF RAIN AREA SHIFTING INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
HRRR MODEL HAS DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS...AND SUGGESTS THAT
THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z
SUNDAY...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. FOLLOWED
THIS GENERAL TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE POPS.
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...HIGHEST AROUND AND SOUTH OF MADISON.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA...EXITING
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BY 09Z
TO 11Z SUNDAY...AND LINGER THERE UNTIL MIDDLE TO LATE MORNING ON
SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING VFR AGAIN. CLOUDS MAY REMAIN BROKEN THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.
NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
AT THE EASTERN SITES...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND EAST NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. FREQUENT GUSTS TO
22 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...HELPING GENERATE WAVES OF
2 TO 5 FEET. WILL LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAKE FINAL CALL ON A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...AFTER NEW MODEL RUNS ARE AVAILABLE.
&&
.BEACHES...
A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY FOR THE BEACHES
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN...AS POSSIBLE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
TO AROUND 22 KNOTS BRING WAVES OF 2 TO 5 FEET. THIS WOULD CREATE
MODERATE TO HIGH SWIM RISK FOR THOSE SWIMMING IN THE LAKE. WILL
LET NIGHT SHIFT MAKE FINAL CALL AFTER NEW MODEL RUNS ARE
AVAILABLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAIN FOCUS IS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE IA INTO CNTRL WI WITH LITTLE
DESTABILIZATION FURTHER EAST DUE TO DENSE CIRRUS CANOPY. HRRR AND
4KM SPC WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS WITH SLOW
PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL INDUCED CONVECTION INTO SC WI THROUGH THE
EVENING. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN CONVECTION WITH LITTLE PUSH INTO THE
ERN CWA WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MORE STABLE AIRMASS. PLUS THE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION WITH MORE OF A NEWD CELLULAR
MOVEMENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MUCH OF THE ERN CWA ENDING UP WITH
A DRY LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE AND POSSIBLY LONGER. HOWEVER STRONG
SHORTWAVE ACRS NRN MO WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH 6Z WITH AN
EXTENSION OF THIS VORT TO THE NORTH POSSIBLY HELPING WITH ADDING
SOME LIFT IN ADDITION TO THE COLD FRONT MOVG SEWD. BOTH MODELS
HINT AT THIS WITH 4KM WRF SHOWING A CLOSE CALL THOUGH KEEPING IT
JUST EAST AND SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GENERAL SPIRIT OF GOING
FORECAST INTACT WITH HIGHER POPS IN WRN AND CNTRL CWA INTO THIS
EVENING WITH LOWER POPS TOWARDS THE LAKE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE DEF ZONE SHIELD OF PCPN WITH
STRONGER MO/WC IL VORT MAX.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WITH ANY VORT ACTION TO OUR NORTH.
MAIN STORY WILL BE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH MORNING
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
AND THE NAM MOS ALL SUGGEST SOME STRATUS FOR A TIME. 925 TEMPS
DROP OFF INTO THE 10-13C RANGE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
WITH SOME MODIFICATION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
MONDAY. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND MID LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES WESTERN MISSOURI MONDAY. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. AS A RESULT THE
250 MB DIVERGENCE INCREASES MONDAY AFTERNOON. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
IS WEAK...WITH THE STRONGER UPWARD MOTION JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD EVENING.
THE NAM SATURATES THE 700 MB LAYER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. 850
MB RH IS RATHER LOW BUT DOES INCREASE FAR WEST AND FAR SOUTH
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO 0 TO 1 KM CAPE. THE NAM
DOES BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SOUTHWEST OF MADISON DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE DRY AND IS
PREFERRED.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI AND REACHES SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS TUESDAY. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS STILL IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET AND EXIT REGION OF THE WEAKER
JET MAX EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. GENERALLY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850/700 MB RH SATURATES OVER
ALL BUT AREAS NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE DELLS MONDAY NIGHT...AND
REMAINS RATHER HIGH INTO TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION REMAINS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST
GETTING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 06Z DGEX IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH QUICKER AND
FARTHER NORTH. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER
MODELS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A COOL EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS RESULTS IN NO
ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO OPEN AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH IS KICKED EAST
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE REACHES MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS AREAS
NORTHWEST OF MADISON DRY. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES WISCONSIN
THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
FRONT...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MOSTLY A VFR PERIOD BUT WL NEED TO WATCH CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO
THIS EVENING. MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN ERN WI SO ERN TAF SITES
LIKELY NOT AFFECTED BY MUCH. PERHAPS A GLANCING SHOT OF PRECIP
FROM NRN FRINGE OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOC WITH MO/IL SHORTWAVE. MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT MAY ALSO
ALLOW CIGS TO REACH MVFR LEVELS. NAM MOS AND BUFKIT ALONG WITH
LLVL RH PROGS SUGGEST THIS. WILL BANK ON THIS MIXING OUT WITH TIME
WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND MODIFICATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH.
MARINE...
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW BEARS WATCHING THOUGH AT THE MOMENT THE GUSTS
AND EXPECTED WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TOO BORDERLINE TO GO WITH AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
619 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE AROUND A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
RUNNING SFC FRONT...FUELED BY A RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. MOSTLY JUST BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE PRODUCED SMALL HAIL.
THE FRONT WILL EASE EAST TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO CENTRAL IL. PCPN ON THE NORTHSIDE OF THE LOW COULD
ENCROACH INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...BEFORE ALL THE
FORCING MECHANISMS AND ACCOMPANYING PCPN SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS FOR SUNDAY...AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MID 70S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT STILL
FAIRLY PLEASANT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MONDAY IS PROVING CHALLENGING AS THE NAM/EC/GFS/GEM ALL PRESENT
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES RELATING TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND
BITS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QFP PRODUCTION...WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WITH THE
BITS OF ENERGY ALOFT SPARKING SHOWERS/STORMS. THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN PLACED LOW...NOT MAKING IT A FACTOR FOR THE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL TUE. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS...AS IS THE
ECMWF.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THAT A SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE RIDING IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
COULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. SOME HINTS OF THIS IN THE GEM AND
NAM...BUT NOT AS MUCH.
THE SOUTHERN FEATURE HAS MORE DYNAMICS/MOISTURE SUPPORT...AND SHOULD
PROVIDE THE GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. GOING TO LEAN TOWARD
THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS WITH THIS FOR MONDAY. WILL ALSO LIKELY
KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
GFS/ECMWF IN FAVOR OF A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING...ZONAL FLOW A LOFT
THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ALONG THIS
CURRENT...AND COULD BRING THE AREA SOME SHOWERS/STORMS. AS CAN BE
EXPECTED...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE/HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE PERIODS/SHORTWAVES THAT THE MODELS HAVE SOME
AGREEMENT ON. ONE IS FOR TUE-WED PERIOD WHEN THE GFS/EC FAVOR TAKING
A SHORTWAVE/CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FLOW
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FEATURE WEAKENS/FILLS AS IT
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES...BUT AN AREA OF PCPN IS PRODUCED
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF ITS TRACK. THE GFS BRINGS THE SHOWER THREAT A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE EC...AND THUS GREATER CHANCES FOR THE
FORECAST AREA TO GET WET. WILL SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
THE NEXT PERIOD WHERE SOLUTIONS ARE MORE SIMILAR IS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS DRIVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...SLIDING A NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS MN. GOOD
FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL FUEL THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT TRENDS BRING
THE HIGHER CHANCES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF BOTH TAF SITES AND
ARE NO LONGER A CONCERN. HOWEVER...A BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS BEHIND
THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING EAST WITH THE
07.21Z RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING THESE AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR A GOOD
SHARE OF THE EVENING. SOME POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AS WELL MAKING THIS A CONCERN FOR KRST AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS AS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF ALL THE CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW SOON THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT...FOG
BECOMES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY AT KRST WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT FIRST.
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHOWING MVFR VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT
WITH SOME FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...EXPECT THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE
CLEAR WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH VCNTY LOWER MI MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE INFLUENCE
ACRS MUCH OF SRN WI. MOIST AXIS RETURNING AROUND HIGH AND AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS FROM NW WI INTO NW IA. PLACEMENT OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD REFLECTS THIS HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AND HIGHER
MLCAPE ENVIRONMENT FROM IA INTO NRN WI. SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
SPOTTY CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE NW CWA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATING DIURNALLY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES. COOLEST WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING LINGERS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING. THIS GIVES WAY TO
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FORCING AS ISODROSOTHERM AXIS SHIFTS EAST
INTO SRN WI AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEANS IN. AXIS OF HIGHER CAPE
EXPECTED IN SC WI. WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST...PRETTY MUCH
IN LINE WITH GOING GRIDS. 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH A NEARLY DRY
SCENARIO FOR ALL OF SRN WI. REASON BEING IS THEIR SOLUTION HAS THE
SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH WITH 500 RIDGING LINGERING INTO SE WI. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON A DRY SCENARIO FOR THE FAR EAST FOR THE WHOLE
DAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO BLEND WITH
NEIGHBORS BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM THIS BACK SHOULD
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK. NAM/ECMWF KEEP 925 TEMPS 18-20C
CWA WIDE WITH THE GFS QUICKER ON 925 COOLING INTO NW CWA.
EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND 80 OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE COOLED OR RAIN
COOLED AREAS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE 850MB COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI SAT NIGHT AT
THE SAME TIME AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS IL. THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 850MB FRONT
PHASED IN ONE LINE AND DROPS THE 850MB FRONT ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO
NORTHERN IL BY NOON SUNDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF MOVE THE SHORTWAVE EAST
OF IL BY 7 AM SUNDAY BUT STALLS THE 850MB FRONT OVER CENTRAL WI
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
CHANCES TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
850MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE...NORTHWEST OF MADISON OR OVER
MADISON AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT.
NOTHING TOO NOTEWORTHY ABOUT THE CONVECTION...WITH ML CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF A LITTLE OVER AN INCH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS SOME FORCING
WITHIN LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HANGS ON. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
BE DRY BY AFTERNOON THOUGH...WITH HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A 500MB SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA.
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER...ALTHOUGH KEPT
LOW POPS IN SOUTHERN WI DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING THE NEXT FRONT
THROUGH WI ON THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WEATHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL...POSSIBLY
CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CU FIELD PLACED IN HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AWAY
FROM THE DRIER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT FORM WILL
BE CONCENTRATED IN THIS AREA...SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TAF
SITES INTO THE EVENING. KMSN WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS/FRONT LEANS
INTO SRN WI WITH MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXITING PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING... POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IF/WHEN MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...WEAK RIDGING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA...AND A
SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN. THE WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS...NOW MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE...DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY WEAK 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON WATER
VAPOR...THOUGH. SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE.
WITHIN THE CLEAR SKIES LIED A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE...
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN. IN ITS
WAKE...A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS BEEN GENERATING
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
COMBINATION OF RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND 06.06Z RAP DATA SUGGESTS THE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 15Z...AND PERHAPS 12Z. DID INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER GIVEN PERSISTENT LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE SHORTWAVE CORE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL THEN CLIMB OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE CORE OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WOULD NORMALLY MAKE ONE THINK OF A DRY FORECAST
DUE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...THE 06.00Z GFS/HIRES
ARW/REGIONAL CANADIAN/SPC WRF-NMM AND 06.05Z HRRR ALL WANT TO
DEVELOP ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FORCED EITHER FROM THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT MARCHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO NORTHERN
WI...OR FROM PURE INSTABILITY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE CAPPING
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60...BUT THE CAPE THAT DOES DEVELOP IS SKINNY.
BELIEVE THE 80S ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THAT WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF
SUN AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C BY 00Z. THE DEWPOINTS ARE
ALSO REASONABLE SEEING LOW 60S EXISTED LAST EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SO IN SUMMARY...DESPITE THE 500MB RIDGING...FEEL SOME 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES ARE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WENT WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GIVEN THE VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE PROGGED
AND EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE.
FOR THOSE MODELS THAT DEVELOP SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY ALL
AGREE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
IN THE EVENING. THUS ONLY HAVE THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES GOING TIL
02Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONGOING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
BAND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND WILL DEPEND
ON BOTH HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKE IT.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND CENTRAL WI BY 12Z...WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCES LATE IN
THE NIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA IN THE EVENT THE BAND
MAKES IT IN. MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR THE BAND TO AFFECT
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MAIN LONG TERM ISSUES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AND
MONDAY.
SATURDAY IS AN INTERESTING SETUP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A FAIRLY WOUND UP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING KS...MO AND IL WHILE
WEAK TROUGHING CROSSES MN. THESE TWO FEATURES COME TOGETHER A BIT AT
THE SURFACE BY CONVERTING THAT COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH...SOMETHING MORE SIMILAR WE LOOK FOR
IN WINTER. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SOME OF THE MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED-NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO HIT THE
LOW 60S AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF IT.
AGAIN SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPPING WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
WEAK TROUGHING COMING IN. CAPE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE...251-750
J/KG 0- 1KM MIXED LAYER...SUPPORTING MORE THUNDER. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM
SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH STAY LESS THAN 25KT...THUS LITTLE
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN. PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY CLIMBS TO 1.3-1.4
INCHES SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN A LITTLE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK TROUGH AND WOUND UP SHORTWAVE
PUSH EASTWARD. DID KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH THE 06.00Z GFS/NAM.
WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH...TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...LOOKS TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 06.00Z ECMWF REMAINS PERSISTENT
IN BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WHILE THE
06.00Z GFS/CANADIAN ARE DRY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
ECMWF...FEEL 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOPEFULLY MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH LATER CYCLES. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ON MONDAY ARE EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. THE WETTER ECMWF WOULD
MEAN HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
CWA...WHILE THE DRIER GFS/CANADIAN WOULD BE MID TO UPPER 70S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR TROUGHING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
RESULTING IN RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE
ALSO SUGGESTIONS OF AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSING FROM KS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. FOR THE MOST PART THIS SHOULD YIELD A
DRY PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE BEGUN TO TREND THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. STILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RELATED TO A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...
WEDNESDAYS CHANCES ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODERATE TO BACK
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE COOLER MONDAY. COULD SEE ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND THIS HAS LED TO A
SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS FIELD. MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT ENOUGH THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
LIGHTNING. CHANCES LOOK LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS
AT THIS POINT...BUT ANY PILOTS TRAVELING IN OR OUT OF KLSE/KRST
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY. WHATEVER ACTIVITY OCCURS WILL DIMINISH
DIURNALLY THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ANTICIPATED AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH TO NORTHWEST. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILING AND VISIBILITY INTO MVFR
CATEGORY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT TO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS JUNCTURE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1103 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...CU FILED FILLING IN FROM NE IA INTO WC WI IN
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AWAY FROM THE DRIER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH.
ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT FORM WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THIS AREA...SO
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES. KMSN WILL BE A CLOSE CALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH HRRR KEEPS THIS DEVELOPMENT MOSTLY TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA ON SATURDAY
AS INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LEANS INTO SRN WI WITH MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A LITTLE CHANGE IN COURSE IS NEEDED FOR TODAY. MODELS SUGGEST...AND
SATELLITE DERIVED PW SHOWS...AN AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH PW/S OF AROUND
1 INCH HAS DRIFTED INTO THE AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES APPROACHING
800-1000J/KG FROM MADISON ON WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
80...SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIRE OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF MADISON. THE COLUMN IS PRETTY
DRY ABOVE ABOUT 8KFT...SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLD TO SCT IN
NATURE. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DEVELOPMENT AT
PEAK HEAT...THEN FALLING APART BY SUNSET. COOLER READINGS AND A
MORE STABLE LOOKING SOUNDING SHOULD KEEP EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
DRY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN GENERAL WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
KEEPING IT CHILLY AT THE BEACH.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SHOULD BE QUIET AFTER THE DIURNAL PRECIP DISSIPATES. HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL INTO
THE 50S MOSTLY PLACES. COOLEST WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
NOTHING TOO NOTEWORTHY ABOUT THE CONVECTION...WITH ML CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS...AND
PRECIPITABLEWATER VALUES OF A LITTLE OVER AN INCH. SHOULD SEE
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH FOR DECENT HEATING...SO
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS SOME FORCING
WITHIN LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HANGS ON. LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD BE DRY BY AFTERNOON THOUGH...WITH HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
MONDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THESE POPS THOUGH...AS MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY FROM WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...TO LAKE HURON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL...POSSIBLY
CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT KMSN.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
643 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXITING PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING... POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IF/WHEN MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...WEAK RIDGING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA...AND A
SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN. THE WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS...NOW MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE...DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY WEAK 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON WATER
VAPOR...THOUGH. SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE.
WITHIN THE CLEAR SKIES LAYED A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE...
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN. IN ITS
WAKE...A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS BEEN GENERATING
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
COMBINATION OF RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND 06.06Z RAP DATA SUGGESTS THE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 15Z...AND PERHAPS 12Z. DID INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER GIVEN PERSISTENT LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE SHORTWAVE CORE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL THEN CLIMB OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE CORE OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WOULD NORMALLY MAKE ONE THINK OF A DRY FORECAST
DUE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...THE 06.00Z GFS/HIRES
ARW/REGIONAL CANADIAN/SPC WRF-NMM AND 06.05Z HRRR ALL WANT TO
DEVELOP ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FORCED EITHER FROM THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT MARCHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO NORTHERN
WI...OR FROM PURE INSTABILITY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE CAPPING
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60...BUT THE CAPE THAT DOES DEVELOP IS SKINNY.
BELIEVE THE 80S ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THAT WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF
SUN AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C BY 00Z. THE DEWPOINTS ARE
ALSO REASONABLE SEEING LOW 60S EXISTED LAST EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SO IN SUMMARY...DESPITE THE 500MB RIDGING...FEEL SOME 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES ARE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WENT WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GIVEN THE VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE PROGGED
AND EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE.
FOR THOSE MODELS THAT DEVELOP SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY ALL
AGREE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
IN THE EVENING. THUS ONLY HAVE THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES GOING TIL
02Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONGOING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
BAND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND WILL DEPEND
ON BOTH HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKE IT.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND CENTRAL WI BY 12Z...WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCES LATE IN
THE NIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA IN THE EVENT THE BAND
MAKES IT IN. MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR THE BAND TO AFFECT
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MAIN LONG TERM ISSUES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AND
MONDAY.
SATURDAY IS AN INTERESTING SETUP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A FAIRLY WOUND UP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING KS...MO AND IL WHILE
WEAK TROUGHING CROSSES MN. THESE TWO FEATURES COME TOGETHER A BIT AT
THE SURFACE BY CONVERTING THAT COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH...SOMETHING MORE SIMILAR WE LOOK FOR
IN WINTER. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SOME OF THE MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED-NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO HIT THE
LOW 60S AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF IT.
AGAIN SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPPING WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
WEAK TROUGHING COMING IN. CAPE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE...251-750
J/KG 0- 1KM MIXED LAYER...SUPPORTING MORE THUNDER. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM
SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH STAY LESS THAN 25KT...THUS LITTLE
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN. PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY CLIMBS TO 1.3-1.4
INCHES SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN A LITTLE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK TROUGH AND WOUND UP SHORTWAVE
PUSH EASTWARD. DID KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH THE 06.00Z GFS/NAM.
WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH...TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...LOOKS TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 06.00Z ECMWF REMAINS PERSISTENT
IN BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WHILE THE
06.00Z GFS/CANADIAN ARE DRY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
ECMWF...FEEL 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOPEFULLY MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH LATER CYCLES. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ON MONDAY ARE EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. THE WETTER ECMWF WOULD
MEAN HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
CWA...WHILE THE DRIER GFS/CANADIAN WOULD BE MID TO UPPER 70S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR TROUGHING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
RESULTING IN RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE
ALSO SUGGESTIONS OF AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSING FROM KS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. FOR THE MOST PART THIS SHOULD YIELD A
DRY PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE BEGUN TO TREND THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. STILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RELATED TO A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...
WEDNESDAYS CHANCES ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODERATE TO BACK
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE COOLER MONDAY. COULD SEE ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
LATEST IR SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS INDICATING SOME STRATUS/FOG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN MN. HOPING THIS WILL
STAY OUT OF KRST...AND THINKING SO WITH SUNRISE AND SURFACE
HEATING COMMENCING. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN INTO FAR NORTHWEST WI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SOME HIGHER BASED CUMULUS AT 4-5KFT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AT KLSE/KRST...BUT THINKING ANY SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WILL
BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE FRONT AND AWAY FROM THE KRST/KLSE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED CU/STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT.
INCLUDED A VCSH AT KRST AFT 09Z AS THAT FRONT BOUNDARY
APPROACHES. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
251 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXITING PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING... POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IF/WHEN MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...WEAK RIDGING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA...AND A
SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN. THE WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS...NOW MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE...DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY WEAK 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON WATER
VAPOR...THOUGH. SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE.
WITHIN THE CLEAR SKIES LAYED A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE...
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN. IN ITS
WAKE...A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS BEEN GENERATING
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
COMBINATION OF RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND 06.06Z RAP DATA SUGGESTS THE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 15Z...AND PERHAPS 12Z. DID INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER GIVEN PERSISTENT LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE SHORTWAVE CORE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL THEN CLIMB OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE CORE OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WOULD NORMALLY MAKE ONE THINK OF A DRY FORECAST
DUE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...THE 06.00Z GFS/HIRES
ARW/REGIONAL CANADIAN/SPC WRF-NMM AND 06.05Z HRRR ALL WANT TO
DEVELOP ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FORCED EITHER FROM THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT MARCHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO NORTHERN
WI...OR FROM PURE INSTABILITY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE CAPPING
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60...BUT THE CAPE THAT DOES DEVELOP IS SKINNY.
BELIEVE THE 80S ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THAT WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF
SUN AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C BY 00Z. THE DEWPOINTS ARE
ALSO REASONABLE SEEING LOW 60S EXISTED LAST EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SO IN SUMMARY...DESPITE THE 500MB RIDGING...FEEL SOME 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES ARE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WENT WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GIVEN THE VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE PROGGED
AND EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE.
FOR THOSE MODELS THAT DEVELOP SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY ALL
AGREE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
IN THE EVENING. THUS ONLY HAVE THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES GOING TIL
02Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONGOING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
BAND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND WILL DEPEND
ON BOTH HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKE IT.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND CENTRAL WI BY 12Z...WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCES LATE IN
THE NIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA IN THE EVENT THE BAND
MAKES IT IN. MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR THE BAND TO AFFECT
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MAIN LONG TERM ISSUES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AND
MONDAY.
SATURDAY IS AN INTERESTING SETUP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A FAIRLY WOUND UP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING KS...MO AND IL WHILE
WEAK TROUGHING CROSSES MN. THESE TWO FEATURES COME TOGETHER A BIT AT
THE SURFACE BY CONVERTING THAT COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH...SOMETHING MORE SIMILAR WE LOOK FOR
IN WINTER. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SOME OF THE MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED-NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO HIT THE
LOW 60S AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF IT.
AGAIN SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPPING WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
WEAK TROUGHING COMING IN. CAPE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE...251-750
J/KG 0- 1KM MIXED LAYER...SUPPORTING MORE THUNDER. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM
SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH STAY LESS THAN 25KT...THUS LITTLE
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN. PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY CLIMBS TO 1.3-1.4
INCHES SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN A LITTLE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK TROUGH AND WOUND UP SHORTWAVE
PUSH EASTWARD. DID KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH THE 06.00Z GFS/NAM.
WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH...TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...LOOKS TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 06.00Z ECMWF REMAINS PERSISTENT
IN BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WHILE THE
06.00Z GFS/CANADIAN ARE DRY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
ECMWF...FEEL 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOPEFULLY MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH LATER CYCLES. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ON MONDAY ARE EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. THE WETTER ECMWF WOULD
MEAN HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
CWA...WHILE THE DRIER GFS/CANADIAN WOULD BE MID TO UPPER 70S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR TROUGHING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
RESULTING IN RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE
ALSO SUGGESTIONS OF AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSING FROM KS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. FOR THE MOST PART THIS SHOULD YIELD A
DRY PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE BEGUN TO TREND THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. STILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RELATED TO A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...
WEDNESDAYS CHANCES ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODERATE TO BACK
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE COOLER MONDAY. COULD SEE ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
LAST OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS ARE MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF KLSE
AND DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY THREAT OF RAIN FOR EITHER TAF SITES.
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT BEHIND THE SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM AT KRST WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN DID FALL
DURING THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHOWING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT TO COVER THIS FOG FORMATION. THE CONCERN
THEN BECOMES WHETHER ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE 06.00Z NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
BRINGING THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA AND DEVELOPING
SOME ACTIVITY ALONG IT. IT IS DOING THIS DESPITE SHOWING RISING
HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM
TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IT TRIES TO SHOW
RAIN WITH VERY WEAK VERTICAL VELOCITIES OR SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING.
WITH VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FROM THE 05.21Z SREF AND THE 05.12Z
ECMWF BEING DRY...WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY AS WELL WITH SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT COULD GO TO A VFR CEILING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
337 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED TO THE WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SET UP AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AIDING IN MAINTAINING A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED SOUTH FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST. RADAR
INDICATED 40-50 KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES BUT THE ONLY OBSERVATION THAT
SHOWED THIS WAS THE NORTHERN TOWER ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A 39 KNOT
GUST JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THIS CLUSTER IS NOW WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING AN EARLY START TO THE ACTIVITY AT AROUND 15-16Z.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL
ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS
500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -8 TO -9C RANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE WET
BULB ZERO AT JUST OVER 12K. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE
FOR HAIL BUT THERE WERE REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE SO WILL PLACE THIS IN THE HWO. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WILL THE SURFACE RIDGE SO NOT
MANY CHANGES SEEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGES TAKE PLACE WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE GFS HAS FINALLY BACKED OFF IN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR AT LEAST HAS DELAYED IT UNTIL BEYOND THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. IT IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
SHOWING. THAT IS KEEPING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SEA
BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE SO CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND WHILE MOST OF THE ACVITIY WILL FORM
INLAND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS, THERE COULD BE A STRAY CELL OR TWO
THAT DRIFT TOWARDS SOME THE EAST COAST SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2
FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO SEAS COULD
BE LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 75 88 76 / 50 30 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 76 87 76 / 40 30 40 30
MIAMI 89 76 87 76 / 50 30 40 30
NAPLES 88 75 88 75 / 30 20 40 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...52/PS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
245 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 10 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary,
weak frontal system along the SC-GA border through western TN, a
weak ridge across the FL Peninsula, and a meso high (preceded by
an outflow boundary to its south and east) in northern AL. The
NCEP WRF ARW and 04 UTC HRRR forecast this MCS to gradually weaken
as it propagates quickly east-southeastward across northern
portions of our forecast area before dawn, but some of this area
may still get some brief rain. Otherwise, we expect scattered
mainly afternoon thunderstorms to develop along various mesoscale
boundaries, especially the sea breeze front (which may not begin
moving inland until mid afternoon due to opposing 1000-700 mb
winds). The PoP ranges from 30% at the coast to 50% in GA & AL.
Highs will be in the mid 90s. A few storms could be strong to
marginally severe, though the 700-500 mb lapse rates and 0-6km
bulk shear may not be quite as favorable for strong updrafts and
storm organization as the past few days.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
A mid-upper level ridge is expected to become better established
over the Southeast as an anomalously strong closed low takes shape
near the Ozarks late Monday into Tuesday. This is expected to
suppress convective activity more than we have seen in recent
days, so afternoon-evening PoPs are expected to be more in the
20-30% range. Highs should continue to be slightly above normal
with little change in 925-850mb temperatures or 1000-500mb
thicknesses - most likely in the lows-mid 90s.
.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The long term period is expected to be fairly wet as we begin to
transition to an active pattern. Models are in fair agreement
that we will see a dry and warm beginning to the long term period
with below normal PWATs through Tuesday evening. Thereafter, an H3
trough will begin to move southeast out of the Central Plains into
our forecast area Tuesday night. With this trough, global models
do show below normal H5 temps and near normal PWATs for our region
on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, so some strong storms are
not out of the question and will need to be watched in the future.
After Thursday, the global models are in fair agreement that we
will continue into a relatively active summer-time pattern with
showers and thunderstorms forming each afternoon.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Monday] There is good agreement among the HRRR and
MOS in areas of low CIGS developing between 09z and 14z this
morning. There is a possibility that an MCS (moving southeast
across central AL at 06z) could disrupt this low cloud development
at KABY and KDHN, and perhaps even bring a brief period of rain
there. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected for the
rest of the day, outside of scattered afternoon & evening
thunderstorms.
&&
.Marine...
With a relatively weak surface pressure pattern typical of summer
around here, winds should be less than 15 knots for the
foreseeable future with seas 2 feet or less in most locations. The
highest seas may actually be closer to the coast - in the late
afternoon or evening hours - due to the daily sea-breeze
enhancement of winds in those areas.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected.
&&
.Hydrology...
Other than right near the Gulf coast, fairly widespread rain
totals of at least 0.25", and as much as 2", have been seen over
the past couple days. This has been sufficient to produce some
minor rises on area rivers, but no river flooding is expected.
Some slow-moving storms may produce localized flooding issues,
particularly in the mid-late part of the upcoming work week as
deeper atmospheric moisture returns to the area.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 72 94 71 94 / 40 30 30 10 20
Panama City 87 74 87 74 88 / 30 20 20 10 10
Dothan 93 73 94 72 93 / 50 30 30 10 10
Albany 94 72 95 72 93 / 50 30 30 10 20
Valdosta 95 70 96 70 95 / 50 40 30 10 30
Cross City 92 71 91 70 92 / 30 30 30 10 30
Apalachicola 89 74 87 73 88 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
554 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CSRA INTO THE MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODELS SUGGESTS WEAKENING TREND AS
STORMS MOVE INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS FROM
THE CSRA TO CENTRAL MIDLANDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.75 INCHES. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. AIR
MASS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DEGREE. BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS APPEAR TO FAVOR CSRA AND WEST
MIDLANDS. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE UNSTABLE MONDAY AS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS MONDAY AND NOTE UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER
APPEARS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE/PIEDMONT AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE. STRONGER INSTABILITY TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUE CHANCE
OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THEN
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO EAST CENTRAL GA. RADAR LOOPS
SUGGEST SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE
CSRA...BUT STILL THINK A WEAKENING TREND WILL BE NOTED AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN FA. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AND A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SHRA AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT FOR DNL/AGS IN THE NEAR
TERM. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG
THE NC COAST. RESULTANT WINDS FROM THE SE LEADING TO STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STRATUS WITH IFR TO
POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. EXPECT
CIGS/VSBYS TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. IT
APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE FA TODAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL VEER TO S TO SW AND INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE NC AND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES OUR FA FROM THE
WEST. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR WEST PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR FA
TODAY. OVERALL INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT
SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...WILL
HANDLE THREAT WITH VCTS SINCE CONFIDENCE OF TSRA SPECIFICALLY
AFFECTING TERMINALS AT SPECIFIC TIMES IS LIMITED THIS FAR OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
504 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST GEORGIA
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AND REACHING THE CWA NEAR DAYBREAK.
HAVE GENERALLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.75
INCHES BY 12Z. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DEGREE. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE FRONT AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
APPEAR TO FAVOR CSRA AND WEST MIDLANDS. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE UNSTABLE MONDAY AS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS MONDAY AND NOTE UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER
APPEARS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE/PIEDMONT AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE. STRONGER INSTABILITY TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUE CHANCE
OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THEN
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO EAST CENTRAL GA. RADAR LOOPS
SUGGEST SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE
CSRA...BUT STILL THINK A WEAKENING TREND WILL BE NOTED AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN FA. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AND A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SHRA AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT FOR DNL/AGS IN THE NEAR
TERM. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG
THE NC COAST. RESULTANT WINDS FROM THE SE LEADING TO STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STRATUS WITH IFR TO
POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. EXPECT
CIGS/VSBYS TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. IT
APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE FA TODAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL VEER TO S TO SW AND INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE NC AND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES OUR FA FROM THE
WEST. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR WEST PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR FA
TODAY. OVERALL INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT
SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...WILL
HANDLE THREAT WITH VCTS SINCE CONFIDENCE OF TSRA SPECIFICALLY
AFFECTING TERMINALS AT SPECIFIC TIMES IS LIMITED THIS FAR OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
252 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST GEORGIA
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AND REACHING THE CWA NEAR DAYBREAK.
HAVE GENERALLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.75
INCHES BY 12Z. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DEGREE. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE FRONT AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
APPEAR TO FAVOR CSRA AND WEST MIDLANDS. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE UNSTABLE MONDAY AS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS MONDAY AND NOTE UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER
APPEARS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE/PIEDMONT AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE. STRONGER INSTABILITY TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUE CHANCE
OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THEN
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES OLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF
THE CSRA...WITH A DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA (FA). WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST. RESULTANT WINDS FROM THE SE FAVOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS STRATUS OVER FOG...WHICH MAKES
SENSE AS RADIATION FOG WILL BE IMPEDED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER...AND STRATUS BUILD DOWN TO THE SURFACE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
WARM SOIL TEMPS RELATIVE TO DEW POINT VALUES. RADAR CURRENTLY
INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING SE ACROSS N ALA/NW GA. BETTER
INSTABILITIES CURRENTLY EXIST OVER CENT ALA AND CENT GA...WITH
LESS INSTABILITY OVER OUR FA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
GENERALLY KEEP THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND GENERALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES
OUR FA...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE STRATUS WITH IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR
CIGS. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE FA
TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO S TO SW AND INCREASE TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE NC AND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES OUR FA
FROM THE WEST. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR WEST PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR
FA TODAY. OVERALL INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT
SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...WILL
HANDLE THREAT WITH VCTS SINCE CONFIDENCE OF TSRA SPECIFICALLY
AFFECTING TERMINALS AT SPECIFIC TIMES IS LIMITED THIS FAR OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
125 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AND REACHING THE CWA NEAR DAYBREAK. HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES
WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.75
INCHES BY 12Z. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT... HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION.
THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE CWA AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE
UNSTABLE MONDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED FOR MONDAY ALSO. GIVEN WEAK
FLOW AND HIGH PWAT....LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY THEN LOW 90S ON
MONDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THEN
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES OLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF
THE CSRA...WITH A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA (FA). WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST. RESULTANT WINDS FROM THE SE FAVOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS STRATUS OVER FOG...WHICH MAKES
SENSE AS RADIATION FOG WILL BE IMPEDED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER...AND STRATUS BUILD DOWN TO THE SURFACE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
WARM SOIL TEMPS RELATIVE TO DEWPOINT VALUES. RADAR CURRENTLY
INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING SE ACROSS N ALA/NW GA. BETTER
INSTABILITIES CURRENTLY EXIST OVER CENT ALA AND CENT GA...WITH
LESS INSTABILITY OVER OUR FA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
GENERALLY KEEP THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND GENERALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES
OUR FA...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE STRATUS WITH IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR
CIGS. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE FA
TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO S TO SW AND INCREASE TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE NC AND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES OUR FA
FROM THE WEST. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR WEST PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR
FA TODAY. OVERALL INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT
SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...WILL
HANDLE THREAT WITH VCTS SINCE CONFIDENCE OF TSRA SPECIFICALLY
AFFECTING TERMINALS AT SPECIFIC TIMES IS LIMITED THIS FAR OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
855 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS EARLIER THIS EVENING TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS TO MODIFY HOURLY
TEMP/RH TRENDS TO COOL/MOISTEN MORE QUICKLY WHERE STEADY RAIN WAS
MOVING IN. HAVE ALSO BOOSTED FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY
SOUTH.
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH CIRCULATION NOTED OVER WEST CENTRAL
IL AT AND BELOW 700 MB. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES AREA OF
MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF
IL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH RAIN NOW IN THE PROCESS
OF SPREADING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. DRY
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THESE AREAS HAD WORKED TO ERODE THE
INITIAL EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE STRONGEST 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...THUS HAVE BASED
FORECAST POP/QPF DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING CLOSELY UPON A BLEND OF
OBSERVED TRENDS AND THESE HIGH-RES MODELS. RAP MUCAPE FIELD
CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA (100
J/KG OR LESS)...THUS HAD EARLIER BACKED OFF TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF THUNDER WHILE RAISING OVERALL POPS FOR RAIN INTO 75-100
PERCENT RANGE (HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN 1/2 CWA). THE 00Z ILX
SOUNDING INDICATES A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.76 INCHES...AND
1.5-2.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MO/SOUTHEAST IA. THUS HAVE RAISED QPF AMOUNTS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-80...WHERE SOME 1.0-1.5 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MORE
PREVALENT HEAVIER RAIN.
RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST-EAST FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE.
SUBSIDENCE THEN DEVELOPS WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH COUPLED WITH DRYING OF
LOW LEVELS ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD HELP SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE
CLOUD COVER BY LATE MORNING.
RATZER/CMS
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
325 PM CDT
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LAKE
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...HAVE BEEN
MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL IL ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE SYSTEM IS LIFTING NEWD A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM GRIDS/FORECAST TO
REFLECT PCPN MOVING INTO THE FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTON COUNTY
BY ARND 21Z AND THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE
NEWD PROGRESS OF THIS PCPN WILL BE LIMITED IN PART BY THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL WI TO CNTRL IA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A BROKEN LINE ALONG OR JUST
POST-FRONTAL AND THIS ACTIVITY IS STEADILY PROGRESSING SEWD. THE
SEWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN
THE PUSH BEHIND THE NRN STREAM COLD FRONT. SO...THE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST EXTENSIVE PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE NOT
OUT OF THE WOODS AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED
AND THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT COULD STILL BRING SOME PCPN TO
THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRS STREAM SYSTEM WITH HAVE
GREATER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND HEATING...SO THEY SHOULD BE
STRONGER THAN THOSE TO THE NORTH. STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA MAY BRING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE SOME SMALL
HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY
MORNING AND THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW...SETTING UP GENERALLY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
WILL BE ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL LEVELS...IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING
HUMIDITY AT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG THE
LAKEFRONT...WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER...IN THE 60S.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL NOT BE UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER KS BORDER BY MONDAY WHICH THEN SLOWLY SINKS
SEWD TO THE INTERSECTION OF KS/OK/MO/AR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IT
SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFTS INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM...THE NAM HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN A
STRONGER/FASTER OUTLIER AND HAS BEEN DISMISSED. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS LIFTING THE SYSTEM OUT FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. THIS WILL IMPACT...IN PARTICULAR...THE TIMING OF THE END
OF THE PCPN OVER THE AREA. TYPICALLY...THE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
FAST IN OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT CLOSED UPPER LOWS...SO HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND
ANTICIPATE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR PCPN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD...FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE LOW
AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SERN CANADA AND WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME PERIODS OF PCPN DURG
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FROM A RELATIVE MINIMA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE MIDWEST...TRENDING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE
EXCEPTION AGAIN BEING THE LAKEFRONT WHERE DAILY LAKE BREEZES ARE
LIKELY AND WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER. AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY
DAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IS THURSDAY WHEN WLY-SWLY
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO PENETRATE UP TO THE LAKEFRONT.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN MOVING EAST BY 8-9Z.
* A PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR IFR.
* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT AT TIMES.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
BACK EDGE OF PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN SHIELD TIED TO STRONG UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW IS PAST RFD AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REMAINING TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE ARE SOME
BETTER RAIN BANDS THAT COULD OCCASIONALLY BRING VSBY DOWN TO THE
MVFR RANGE BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS. NEXT CONCERN IS WITH AREA OF LOW
MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST WI TO NORTH CENTRAL
IA. IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE RFD AREA IN A
FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH LOW LEVEL RH
RESULTING IN THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEAST...BUT IF
THEY ARE DELAYED ENOUGH...ITS POSSIBLE THAT ORD/MDW/DPA COULD ONLY
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OR OCNL LOWER CIGS FROM 11 TO 14Z. WITH COOL
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...GYY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS. ANY LOWER CIGS STILL
EXPECTED TO SCATTER TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE
AND IMPACT GYY FOR LONGER THAN INDICATED.
LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
AND OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN RAIN TRENDS.
* MEDIUM IN LOWER MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW IN IFR.
* HIGH IN NORTH-NORTHAST WINDS TODAY...MEDIUM IN GUST SPEEDS.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE TSRA...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
NORTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR. LATE DAY
LAKE BREEZE SHIFT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
205 PM CDT
WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...WITH 15 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SET UP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR THESE STRONGER NORTHERN WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH 4+ FOOT
WAVES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...INCLUDING BOTH THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ABATE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTED ONSHORE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND IT COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ENHANCED AT TIMES
ON MONDAY DUE TO LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES. THE WINDS IN CONDITIONS
LIKE THIS CAN SOMETIMES BE STRONGER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE INDICATES.
SO...WITH THIS IN MIND...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHER WAVES...POSSIBLY
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...COULD CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THESE ONSHORE EASTERLY WINDS COULD EVEN BECOME ENHANCED A BIT MORE
AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
MONDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...7 AM SUNDAY TO 4
AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM SUNDAY TO 4
AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
448 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
IN GENERAL LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE PESSIMISTIC WHEN
COMPARED TO REALITY...AND IT APPEARS THESE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN...CURRENTLY
PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA...IS FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS HAD
ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. AS A RESULT EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RESTING
RELATIVELY QUIETLY BETWEEN A STORM COMPLEX DRIVING THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS CORRESPONDING CONVECTION RIDING NORTHWEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS LIMITED
ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WHILE THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FIRED ACROSS PORTIONS
FORECAST AREA...OVERALL RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN HARD TO IGNORE.
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MISS MUCH OF OUR CWA. IN ADDITION
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED AS WELL THOUGH SPC STILL HAS A COUPLE COUNTIES IN OUR
EXTREME EAST IN A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO RIDE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
GENERAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
VERY CLOSE TO NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF LOW
WILL START OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BEING PULLED INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE RESIDUAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL GO
WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS SINCE TIMING ANY GIVEN
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. IN
GENERAL...POP CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST OVERALL FORCING AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HOW
QUICKLY RIDGING RETURNS. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE
TROUGH INFLUENCE AND KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN GENERAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PESSIMISTIC. BUT IN REALITY LOWER RESOLUTION
MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE MAIN
STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS TURING OUT TO BE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH
THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT OUR AREA IS RESTING BETWEEN A
STORM COMPLEX DRIVING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RIDING NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER BUT LEFT MENTION OF A FEW HOURS OF VCSH...THOUGH THAT MAY
EVEN BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT MID DAY...FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
10KTS. WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20KT...BUT ONLY OCCASIONALLY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
432 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
IN GENERAL LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE PESSIMISTIC WHEN
COMPARED TO REALITY...AND IT APPEARS THESE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN...CURRENTLY
PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA...IS FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS HAD
ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. AS A RESULT EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RESTING
RELATIVELY QUIETLY BETWEEN A STORM COMPLEX DRIVING THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS CORRESPONDING CONVECTION RIDING NORTHWEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS LIMITED
ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WHILE THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FIRED ACROSS PORTIONS
FORECAST AREA...OVERALL RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN HARD TO IGNORE.
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MISS MUCH OF OUR CWA. IN ADDITION
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED AS WELL THOUGH SPC STILL HAS A COUPLE COUNTIES IN OUR
EXTREME EAST IN A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO RIDE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
GENERAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
VERY CLOSE TO NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN GENERAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PESSIMISTIC. BUT IN REALITY LOWER RESOLUTION
MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE MAIN
STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS TURING OUT TO BE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH
THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT OUR AREA IS RESTING BETWEEN A
STORM COMPLEX DRIVING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RIDING NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER BUT LEFT MENTION OF A FEW HOURS OF VCSH...THOUGH THAT MAY
EVEN BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT MID DAY...FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
10KTS. WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20KT...BUT ONLY OCCASIONALLY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
108 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CLOSED LO
OVER CENTRAL CANADA JUST W OF HUDSON BAY. UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT
H3 JET MAX OVER NW ONTARIO RIDING TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LO
IN CONCERT WITH BAND OF DEEP MSTR/H85-7 FGEN TO THE W OF SFC COLD
FNT STRETCHING ACRS THE WCENTRAL CWA IS CAUSING NMRS SHOWERS OVER
THE WRN CWA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC FNT. DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z GRB RAOB LIMITED THE SHRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT
THRU THE MRNG AND HAS CONTINUED TO DO SO OVER THE ERN CWA...BUT
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING THAT LIFTED TEMPS TOWARD 80 OVER THE
SCENTRAL AND ARRIVAL OF MOISTER AIR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB IN
THE SW LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT THAT LIFTED MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG
CAUSED CONVECTION TO INCRS EARLIER IN THE AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL ZNS
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FNT. MODEST DEEP LYR SHEAR/MID LVL LAPSE RATES
LIMITED THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
DROPPED SOME HVY RA. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS HAS
DIMINISHED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS...ANOTHER LARGER BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND SOME TS ARE LIFTING NEWD THRU NE WI TOWARD HIER
LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE SCENTRAL. THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FNT...THE NNW WIND OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS...AND THE
PCPN HAS DROPPED TEMPS AS LO AS ARND 50 OVER THE WRN CWA. FARTHER TO
THE W...DRIER AIR WITH PWAT UNDER 0.50 INCH IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS/NW MN. SKIES ARE CLR-PCLDY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU UNDER LLVL
THERMAL TROF IN THESE AREAS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TREND OF POPS TNGT AND THEN
FCST TEMPS/MIN RH ON SUN AS DRY HI PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
TNGT...AS THE UPR FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE W ON THE SRN FLANK OF
CLOSED LO TRACKING E INTO HUDSON BAY...DRIER AIR WL OVERSPREAD UPR
MI FM THE W. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET
ROTATING NEWD IN ONTARIO ARND THE CLOSED LO WL LIFT TO THE NE WITH
THE UPR JET CORE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD
CAUSE THE BANDS OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH/LINGERING TS TO END THRU THE
NGT AS THEY SPREAD TO THE E. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE W
CLOSER TO CORE OF INCOMING DRY AIRMASS/ PWAT CLOSE TO 0.33 INCH AND
TRAILING SFC HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/ LIGHTER WINDS. CONSIDERED
ADDING SOME FOG INTO THE FCST FOR THIS AREA WHERE SOME MDT RAIN FELL
TODAY AND IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING UNDER THE MID LVL
DRYING...BUT OPTED NOT TO CONSIDERING SOME FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DRYING
FCST IN THE H95-9 LYR UNDER STEADY H95-9 WIND TO THE E OF APRCHG HI
PRES CENTER THAT IS FCST TO REACH NEAR DULUTH BY 12Z SUN.
SUN...ANY LINGERING CLDS OVER THE SE CWA EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME DIURNAL CU AS HI PRES/
CORE OF DRIER AIR SHIFT OVHD. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO PEAK BTWN 8C
AND 9C...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RISE UP TO 75 OVER THE INTERIOR. LK
BREEZES WL PUSH INLAND OFF MAINLY LK SUP WITH NNW H925 FLOW TO THE S
OF SFC HI PRES BLDG OVER LK SUP IN THE AFTN...RESULTING IN COOLER WX
THERE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FCST N WIND APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG TO
ALLOW MUCH LK MI MODERATION. DEEP MIXING TO H75-8 WL RESULT IN SFC
DEWPTS FALLING INTO THE UPR 20S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTN...WITH
MIN RH BOTTOMING OUT TOWARD 20 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT IN THE AFTN WHERE THE RH WL BE LOWEST AWAY FM LK SUP
MODERATION OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...MITIGATING FIRE WX CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A 1020MB SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS W TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE DAY MON. MODELS SHOW DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE 550-450MB
LAYER...WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLY RESULTING FROM THIS
LAYER AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. HOWEVER...THE SFC HIGH WILL KEEP VERY
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE FROM MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THE ONE EXCEPTION
POINTED TO BY MODELS IS OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI (WHICH WILL BE ON THE
WRN SIDE THE SFC LOW BY MON MORNING) WHERE A THINK RIBBON OF HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN (1000-700MB RH AROUND 70 PERCENT)...THIS
AREA COULD SEE A GREATER AMOUNT OF PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD POPS AS HIGH AS 40 PERCENT CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. LOWERED THE POPS OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN UPPER MI DUE TO
THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND E.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUE...WITH A SFC RIDGE STAYING OVER THE CWA INTO WED.
THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUE.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WED THROUGH SAT...BUT MAINLY WED INTO FRI AS
MODELS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGING WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF BOTH SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE THE DETAILS OF THE PHASING OF THESE
SYSTEM AS WELL. THE GFS IS ON THE WETTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THE GEM AND
ECMWF SHOW LESS PHASING OF THE SYSTEM AND KEEP THE CWA DRIER THROUGH
THE TIME PERIOD. USED A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH RESULTED
IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU. WHILE STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO LOW LEVEL PATTERN DIFFERENCES...FRI AND SAT HAVE
LOWER PRECIP CHANCE THANKS TO INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
DRIER AIR TO THE W AND NW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BROUGHT
CONDITIONS UP TO VFR AT KCMX AND AT KSAW. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OVERNIGHT DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND
WET GROUND FROM YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL. KIWD HAS ALREADY SEEN LIFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP DUE TO FOG. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH THE
FOG WILL EXPAND AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD WORK TO
DISPERSE THE FOG. FOR NOW...OPTED TO ONLY INCLUDE FOG AT KIWD WITH
IMPROVEMENT THERE LATER IN THE NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
ALL TERMINALS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SO
WINDS THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS. FOG WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT ONCE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVES IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT STALLED OUT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WILL FALL APART THIS MORNING... AS A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVERTAKES THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRON OVER SOUTHWESTERN NC AND
UPSTATE SC TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SURFACE TO
925MB...WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DYING MCV
OVER EASTERN TN...ALONG WITH THE 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE (PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS)...MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFTING TOWARD THE
TRIAD BY SUNRISE. THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER RAISES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A SHARP GRADIENT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST...EXPECT CAPE TO DROP OFF RATHER
QUICKLY FROM US HWY 1 EAST. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DYING MCV AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LATER IN THE EVENING...A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO AN MCS/SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL
WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS SHOW THIS CONVERGENCE
LINE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH PW ABOVE 1.5
INCHES. WITH WINDS STAYING STIRRED OVERNIGHT AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING MID-LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
RAP HODOGRAPHS SHOW SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 150-200 M2/S2 OF 0-3KM SRH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
SPC HAS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN 2 PERCENT PROS FOR TORNADOES...IN
ADDITIONAL TO A GENERAL WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...ITS STILL NOT CERTAIN
HOW STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL BE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LATE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FILLING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER AS A TROUGH AND
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS DIFFER REGARDING WHERE
EXACTLY THE BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE...BUT THERE
IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE FROM
THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WIND FIELDS WILL REMAN WEAK ON MONDAY...SO THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE SMALL AND CONVECTION MORE PULSE-LIKE. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGINNING TO STEEPEN
MONDAY NIGHT...YIELDING SOME ELEVATED CAPE THAT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A WARM... MOIST... AND VOLATILE COLUMN WILL
PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CLOSED LOW SITTING NEAR THE WRN MO/AR
BORDER PUSHES SLOW NE TO IL BY DAYBREAK WED (ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A
TAD SLOWER)... AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER NC WILL START TO GIVE
WAY TO LIGHT SSW FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE SLIPS JUST TO OUR EAST.
NEVERTHELESS... THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STAY VERY WEAK... SO DON`T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THAT SAID... WE`LL
START THE DAY WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000
J/KG ACCORDING TO BOTH THE NAM AND GFS... AND WITH PW VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE OVER 150% OF NORMAL... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO FORCE
SCATTERED PULSE AND MULTICELL CONVECTION EVEN IN THE MORNING AS CINH
RAPIDLY DISAPPEARS WITH HEATING. BY AFTERNOON THE SBCAPE JUMPS TO
1500-2500 J/KG (LOWEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE THE SUBCLOUD LAYER
SHOULD BE DRIER/DEEPER... ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BRING ABOUT BETTER
DCAPE)... AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY
FORMING ON OUTFLOW OR SEA BREEZE FEATURES... MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CWA... ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE AND STORM LIFETIMES
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING FEATURES AND WEAK
WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN. HIGHS 89-93 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THICKNESSES. CONVECTION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET... ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MARGINAL
TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT... MAINLY
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE PW VALUES REMAIN OVER 150% OF
NORMAL... WHILE DRIER AIR SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT... HIGHEST EAST... WITH LOW TO NO
CHANCES WEST. CONTINUE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS 67-72.
FOR WED-SAT: THE UPPER LOW NEAR STL EARLY WED WILL CONTINUE TO GET
PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING MT/ND/SD... WITH
THE FORMER FEATURE BECOMING WEAKER AND N-S ELONGATED AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THU NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH WILL IMPROVE OVER THE FAR
WRN CWA BUT REMAIN MARGINAL (JUST 20-25 KTS) FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...
WHILE CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS WILL STAY WITHIN A POOR WIND FIELD
REGIME. BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE (BUT
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EAST) AND THE GFS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BOTH WED/THU AFTERNOONS... WITH LINGERING MARGINAL CAPE
AND WEAK CINH OVERNIGHT INTO EACH MORNING. EXPECT THE HIGHEST
CONVECTION COVERAGE OF THE WEEK TO OCCUR ON THESE TWO DAYS. THE
WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FRI (EARLY DAY ON THE FASTER GFS AND LATE DAY ON
THE SLOWER ECMWF)... WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
INTO THE ERN CWA FOR FRI... WITH LOW COVERAGE ON SAT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. (THIS ASSUMES THAT THE GFS`S
DEPICTION OF AN INTENSE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAX PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NRN WV/MD FRI-SAT IS A FEEDBACK ARTIFACT
AND CAN BE SET ASIDE... ALTHOUGH WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL IN LATER FORECASTS.) WILL SHIFT POPS TO MAINLY EAST
ON FRI... WITH JUST 10-20% CHANCES SAT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN NEAR-
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM DAY TO DAY... WITH THICKNESSES HOLDING JUST
ABOVE NORMAL... WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE... WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S... AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DRIFTING TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL
AREAS. A WEAK WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NC AND UPSTATE SC
WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING AS A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOW
LEVELS AND SOME WEAK ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC WILL
LEAD TO SOME STRATUS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. BASED ON NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AT KINT AND KGSO BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. AFTER
14Z...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AT AROUND 3500
FT. CONTINUED MOISTENING OVER WESTERN NC AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
MUCH LESS FROM KRDU TO KRWI AND KFAY. OF THESE THREE SITES...THE
PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE HIGHEST AT KRDU...BUT WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY THIS WEEK...MORE SO OVER EASTERN NC ON MONDAY THEN
SCATTERED ABOUT MOST OF CENTRAL NC EACH DAY THEREAFTER. THERE WILL
ALSO BE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT STALLED OUT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WILL FALL APART THIS MORNING... AS A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVERTAKES THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRON OVER SOUTHWESTERN NC AND
UPSTATE SC TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SURFACE TO
925MB...WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DYING MCV
OVER EASTERN TN...ALONG WITH THE 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE (PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS)...MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFTING TOWARD THE
TRIAD BY SUNRISE. THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER RAISES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A SHARP GRADIENT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST...EXPECT CAPE TO DROP OFF RATHER
QUICKLY FROM US HWY 1 EAST. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DYING MCV AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LATER IN THE EVENING...A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO AN MCS/SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL
WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS SHOW THIS CONVERGENCE
LINE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH PW ABOVE 1.5
INCHES. WITH WINDS STAYING STIRRED OVERNIGHT AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. RAP HODOGRAPHS SHOW
SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 150-200
M2/S2 OF 0-3KM SRH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. SPC HAS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT IN 2 PERCENT PROS FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITIONAL TO A
GENERAL WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...ITS STILL NOT CERTAIN HOW STRONG
UPDRAFTS WILL BE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LATE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST THE SOUTHERN END OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY. THE BEST JET
SUPPORT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD BE NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...
WITH AN INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING OVER 1.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...TO RESULT
IN SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ALSO SUGGEST THE LIFT AND
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TEND TO WEAKEN WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION...SUCH THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FROM U.S. 1 WEST. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS MOISTENING
THEN...BUT THOSE SAME SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDER. FARTHER WEST...LAPSE RATES ARE BETTER...BUT ONLY TO 6C/KM
OR SO...AND LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY A DEGREE OR THREE
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE AT OR BELOW 400J/KG OVERALL.
WITH THIS IN MIND...ALONG WITH ONLY MODEST 850MB WINDS...WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
HIGHS SATURDAY 80 TO 85 OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS IN GENERAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.
THE NAM AND THE GFS TEND TO DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AND WITH HPC SUGGESTING A BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS COMPARED
TO THE NAM FOR THE 12Z CYCLE HAVE LEANED MUCH MORE TOWARD THE GFS
FOR THE FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DRY THE MEAN AIR
MASS QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THIS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS ESSENTIALLY CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. EVEN THE NAM...WITH
ITS DIFFERENCES FROM THE GFS...SHOWS K INDICES FALLING GREATLY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AFTER
A LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE MID-LEVELS WARMING SUPPORTING A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR
IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
AND THEN...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALWAYS HESITATE TO REMOVE CHANCES SO MUCH...BUT THE
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM U.S. 1 ON WEST ARE SO DRY AND
CAPPED IT IS DIFFICULT NOT TO AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE POPS THERE ARE
VERY LOW AS WELL. AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S...
HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH A 90 POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A WARM... MOIST... AND VOLATILE COLUMN WILL
PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CLOSED LOW SITTING NEAR THE WRN MO/AR
BORDER PUSHES SLOW NE TO IL BY DAYBREAK WED (ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A
TAD SLOWER)... AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER NC WILL START TO GIVE
WAY TO LIGHT SSW FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE SLIPS JUST TO OUR EAST.
NEVERTHELESS... THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STAY VERY WEAK... SO DON`T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THAT SAID... WE`LL
START THE DAY WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000
J/KG ACCORDING TO BOTH THE NAM AND GFS... AND WITH PW VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE OVER 150% OF NORMAL... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO FORCE
SCATTERED PULSE AND MULTICELL CONVECTION EVEN IN THE MORNING AS CINH
RAPIDLY DISAPPEARS WITH HEATING. BY AFTERNOON THE SBCAPE JUMPS TO
1500-2500 J/KG (LOWEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE THE SUBCLOUD LAYER
SHOULD BE DRIER/DEEPER... ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BRING ABOUT BETTER
DCAPE)... AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY
FORMING ON OUTFLOW OR SEA BREEZE FEATURES... MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CWA... ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE AND STORM LIFETIMES
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING FEATURES AND WEAK
WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN. HIGHS 89-93 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THICKNESSES. CONVECTION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET... ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MARGINAL
TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT... MAINLY
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE PW VALUES REMAIN OVER 150% OF
NORMAL... WHILE DRIER AIR SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT... HIGHEST EAST... WITH LOW TO NO
CHANCES WEST. CONTINUE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS 67-72.
FOR WED-SAT: THE UPPER LOW NEAR STL EARLY WED WILL CONTINUE TO GET
PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING MT/ND/SD... WITH
THE FORMER FEATURE BECOMING WEAKER AND N-S ELONGATED AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THU NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH WILL IMPROVE OVER THE FAR
WRN CWA BUT REMAIN MARGINAL (JUST 20-25 KTS) FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...
WHILE CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS WILL STAY WITHIN A POOR WIND FIELD
REGIME. BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE (BUT
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EAST) AND THE GFS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BOTH WED/THU AFTERNOONS... WITH LINGERING MARGINAL CAPE
AND WEAK CINH OVERNIGHT INTO EACH MORNING. EXPECT THE HIGHEST
CONVECTION COVERAGE OF THE WEEK TO OCCUR ON THESE TWO DAYS. THE
WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FRI (EARLY DAY ON THE FASTER GFS AND LATE DAY ON
THE SLOWER ECMWF)... WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
INTO THE ERN CWA FOR FRI... WITH LOW COVERAGE ON SAT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. (THIS ASSUMES THAT THE GFS`S
DEPICTION OF AN INTENSE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAX PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NRN WV/MD FRI-SAT IS A FEEDBACK ARTIFACT
AND CAN BE SET ASIDE... ALTHOUGH WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL IN LATER FORECASTS.) WILL SHIFT POPS TO MAINLY EAST
ON FRI... WITH JUST 10-20% CHANCES SAT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN NEAR-
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM DAY TO DAY... WITH THICKNESSES HOLDING JUST
ABOVE NORMAL... WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE... WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S... AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DRIFTING TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL
AREAS. A WEAK WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NC AND UPSTATE SC
WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING AS A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOW
LEVELS AND SOME WEAK ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC WILL
LEAD TO SOME STRATUS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. BASED ON NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AT KINT AND KGSO BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. AFTER
14Z...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AT AROUND 3500
FT. CONTINUED MOISTENING OVER WESTERN NC AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
MUCH LESS FROM KRDU TO KRWI AND KFAY. OF THESE THREE SITES...THE
PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE HIGHEST AT KRDU...BUT WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY THIS WEEK...MORE SO OVER EASTERN NC ON MONDAY THEN
SCATTERED ABOUT MOST OF CENTRAL NC EACH DAY THEREAFTER. THERE WILL
ALSO BE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST MAKING THEIR WAY EAST TOWARDS
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
THAT WERE MOVING EAST AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE
SHOWERS. EVERY SO OFTEN THERE IS A LIGHTNING STRIKE WITH THE
SHOWERS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
...VERY LITTLE ALTERED FOR THIS UPDATE...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD ENTER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE EVENING WAS TO THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AS SOON AS 9 PM. THEREFORE...INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EXPANDED PRECIP CHANCES EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE LATEST HRRR RUN AND 22 UTC RAP INDICATE THIS AREA OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AS OF 20 UTC...THE SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS WEAK...WITH RATHER LOW COVERAGE OF WEAK CONVECTION
EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INTO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES
EMBEDDED ALOFT IN ZONAL TURNING TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET POSITIONED ACROSS THE
AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...FOCUSED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY. AGAIN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK...AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE...A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC SUITE WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
QUASI-ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ON-AGAIN AND OFF-AGAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
APPEAR TO BE MID-WEEK AND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
LINGERING DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY
SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN INCOMING S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. AFTER
THIS...MONDAY DAYTIME LOOKS DRY.
ANOTHER S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MATERIALIZES AND DEVELOPS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA
EAST-NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED OPEN WAVE S/WV TROUGH PUSHING
EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES LOW IF ANY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DECENT AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL IN THE 60S AND 70S THEN SHOULD WARM
THURSDAY-SATURDAY BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THUS HAVE VCSH MENTION. LATER ON SUNDAY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND HAVE MENTION OF VCTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI TO REACH WESTERN OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO DURING THE DAY AND THEN WEAKEN. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARD MORNING. STARTED WITH A CHANCE IN THE WEST AT 09Z AND HAVE
FDY LIKELY BY 11Z. WEST CLOSE TO MAV TEMP GUIDANCE WEST TONIGHT BUT
BELOW GUIDANCE EAST GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR...HRRR AND RUC GUIDANCE...NOT FINDING MUCH TO
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO BE GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WENT WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY AS LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. CAPES LOWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SO CARRIED
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND THEN DROPPED BACK TO SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW. BEST CAPES EAST HALF ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH NUMBERS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000J/KG SO CONTINUED
WITH THUNDER THERE ALL DAY. LOW MOVES INTO PA IN THE EVENING BUT
BY MORNING MONDAY THE LOW ALTHOUGH WEAKER...WILL STILL BE IN WEST
CENTRAL PA SO WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FAR EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THEN CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEST
HOWEVER SHOULD DRY OUT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE
IN. MONDAY HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FAR EAST JUST GIVEN PROXIMITY
OF THE BETTER MOISTURE BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT A DRY DAY
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MONDAY NIGHT AND UPPER LOW DIGS INTO A
SHARPENING TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE
LOW STRENGTHENS OVER MISSOURI. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROF
DIGGING BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT EAST AT FIRST. DID
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WEST TOWARDS MORNING TUESDAY. FOR THE
DAY TUESDAY...DID GO WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE ADDED MOISTURE AND
THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY CAUSE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY WITH
THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING...THE GFS IS
SLOWER THAN THE CANADIAN MODEL AND THE ECMWF...WENT SOMEWHAT CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS POPS WHICH SIDED WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT. KEPT THE
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...HOWEVER...AS THE TRENDS BECOME
CLEARER...MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE THE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AT 06Z
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL
THE ONSET OF RAIN GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT. CEILINGS
WILL FALL WITH THE RAIN...POSSIBLY DROPPING AS LOW AS IFR FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME AT THE SOUTHERN SITES...FDY/MFD/CAK...THAT ARE CLOSER
TO THE LOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN
SITES AND INCLUDED VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS AT YNG/ERI. RAIN WILL EXIT
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS QUICKLY
RETURNING TO VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OHIO...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER NEAR THE LAKE AT CLE AND ERI TODAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL OH AND SW PA. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. DID GO A LITTLE STRONGER ON THE WIND SPEED FORECAST THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS THREAT FOR AN ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL
KEEP THE LAKE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. A FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY CAUSING A THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
444 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE AS THE WEEKEND
WEARS ON. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY...THEN WILL MOVE NORTH AS WARM FRONT AND LEAVE THE AREA
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM...BOWING MCS DIVING SEWD ACRS GA...BUT THE CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW ALSO IS ENABLING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO FIRE
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. THE N END OF THE MCS BRIEFLY ORGANIZED ACRS THE
SW NC MTNS BUT HAS NOW WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS...A CLUSTER OF FORMERLY DISCRETE CELLS
IS MOVING MORE ELY THAN NLY AS THE BLUE RIDGE CELLS ARE...SUGGESTING
IT IS SEMI-ORGANIZED AND COULD HAVE A COLD POOL. WE ARE BEGINNING TO
BECOME CONCERNED FOR HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS UNDER THE CLUSTER
GIVEN EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING FAST
ENOUGH THAT IT DOES NOT POSE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST FEW HOURS.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS PUSH THE MCS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVIDENTLY SUGGEST AREAS IN ITS WAKE WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER AND A
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THRU THE MORNING AND EVEN
EARLY AFTN. THIS IS SOMEWHAT PLAUSIBLE...BUT IT WOULD HAVE TO
SURVIVE THE DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY IN ORDER TO DO SO. EVEN
IF A LULL OCCURS ANY SUN COMING THRU BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL FUEL MORE
INSTABILITY. SO THERE IS ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FCST
TODAY.
THE BROAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW THAT WILL
CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BLUE RIDGE MAY AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IN A RELATIVELY TYPICAL REGIME. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT
WILL BE PULLED ALONG WITH THAT SFC LOW...COMING ACRS THE NC MTNS BY
EARLY EVENING. CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL EXTEND THE CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO THE
EVENING A BIT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER OPNL NAM
AND SREF PROBS...WHICH IS MUCH LIKE WHAT WE/VE DEALT WITH THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. THOUGH DEEP SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW...THE MIDLEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR 0-3KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES TO REACH 25-30 KT AROUND MIDDAY...WHEN THE FLOW IS
STILL MORE BACKED. SPC HAS INCLUDED A BAND OF 2 PCT TORNADO PROBS IN
THE D1 OTLK JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...EVIDENTLY FOR THIS
REASON. WE WILL LIKELY WATCH RADAR A LITTLE MORE CLOSELY THIS AFTN
FOR ANY SPIN-UPS.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THICKNESSES
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN. SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
TURNS WINDS NWLY...BUT MOIST SFC CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MINS UP...ALSO
BEING NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS....WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE GREAT LAKES. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM REACHES THE EAST COAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA FROM THE W ON MONDAY...AND
APPEARS TO STALL IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING. THE
BOUNDARY THEN LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING
NC BY MONDAY MORNING...AND VA BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON. OUR AREA WILL
THEN BE IN A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THIS FEATURE IS MORE
LIMITED THAN THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST FARTHER WEST...IT SHOULD SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY ON MONDAY HOWEVER. INSTABILITY IS MUCH GREATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE DEPARTING WARM
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
BE OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE LOW FILLS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY
BROAD SHALLOW TROUGHING REMAINS FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH IT. MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS RATHER
LIMITED. UPPER FLOW FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY SATURDAY...WITH WEAK
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
ON WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR
BETWEEN A WARM FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE SOUTHEAST STAYS IN THIS WARM
MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
THE BLUE RIDGE THAT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THERE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FIELD THRU THE
EARLY MRNG. LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS HOWEVER WILL PLAGUE THE PIEDMONT
THRU DAYBREAK. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT IFR. I AM LIKELY TO AMD AGAIN
FOR A TEMPO IF ANY CLOUDS BELOW 010 ARE REPORTED. OVERALL FCST
REMAINS THE SAME AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES TODAY. PASSING S/W TROF
WITH A WEAK SFC LOW WILL PASS ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY PULLING A WEAK
FRONT. THESE FEATURES WILL ENHANCE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE LATE IN THE DAY TO BRING PROB30 RANGE TSRA CHANCES IN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...PERHAPS A LITTLE LATER THAN TYPICAL. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.
ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF CELLS INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS AM...ALONG WITH
REMNANTS OF MCS MOVING EWD. KAND/KAVL ARE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
SOME OF THESE CELLS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND FEATURE TEMPOS FOR
TSRA...WITH THE OTHER SITES NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE WOODS BUT WITH
LOWER CHANCES ONLY WARRANTING VCTS/VCSH. LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS
WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS THRU 13-14Z.
TSRA COULD ACTUALLY LEAD TO SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THEY PASS DUE TO THE
DOWNWARD MOTION PROVIDED BY RAIN. IN GENERAL TRENDS FOR TODAY ARE
SIMILAR TO KCLT...WITH FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PROB30 TSRA
DURING PEAK HEATING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE AGAIN
PROGGED TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG MAY FORM.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z
KCLT HIGH 98% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 92%
KGSP HIGH 89% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 79% MED 78% MED 68% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 91% MED 72% MED 75%
KGMU HIGH 83% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
356 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE AS THE WEEKEND
WEARS ON. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY...THEN WILL MOVE NORTH AS WARM FRONT AND LEAVE THE AREA
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...BOWING MCS DIVING SEWD ACRS GA...BUT THE CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IS ENABLING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO FIRE NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE N END OF THE MCS HAD LOOKED RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OVER
SE TN BUT HAS NOW TAKEN ON A N-S LINEAR STRUCTURE AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MCS...A CLUSTER OF FORMERLY DISCRETE CELLS IS MOVING MORE ELY
THAN NLY AS THE BLUE RIDGE CELLS ARE...SUGGESTING IT IS
SEMI-ORGANIZED AND COULD HAVE A COLD POOL. WE ARE BEGINNING TO
BECOME CONCERNED FOR HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS UNDER THE CLUSTER
GIVEN EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING FAST
ENOUGH THAT IT DOES NOT POSE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST FEW HOURS. THESE TWO ORGANIZED FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FURTHER EWD THRU THE CWFA THIS AM. CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE...WHICH IS
GOOD TO LIMIT FLOOD CONCERNS.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS PUSH THE MCS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVIDENTLY SUGGEST THE AREA WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER AND A LULL IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THRU THE MORNING. THIS IS SOMEWHAT
PLAUSIBLE...BUT IT WOULD HAVE TO SURVIVE THE DIURNAL MINIMUM IN
INSTABILITY IN ORDER TO DO SO. EVEN IF THE LULL OCCURRED IT MIGHT BE
SHORT LIVED WITH SUN COMING THRU BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S FUELING MORE INSTABILITY. SO THERE IS
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FCST TODAY.
THE BROAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW THAT WILL
CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BLUE RIDGE MAY AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IN A RELATIVELY TYPICAL REGIME. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT
WILL BE PULLED ALONG WITH THAT SFC LOW...COMING ACRS THE NC MTNS BY
EARLY EVENING. CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL EXTEND THE CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO THE
EVENING A BIT. WE WILL STILL HAVE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST
CAPE...GIVING US YET ANOTHER DAY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH MOST STORMS WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THICKNESSES
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN. SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
TURNS WINDS NWLY...BUT MOIST SFC CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MINS UP...ALSO
BEING NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS....WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE GREAT LAKES. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM REACHES THE EAST COAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA FROM THE W ON MONDAY...AND
APPEARS TO STALL IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING. THE
BOUNDARY THEN LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING
NC BY MONDAY MORNING...AND VA BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON. OUR AREA WILL
THEN BE IN A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALONG THIS FEATURE IS MORE
LIMITED THAN THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST FARTHER WEST...IT SHOULD SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY ON MONDAY HOWEVER. INSTABILITY IS MUCH GREATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE DEPARTING WARM
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
BE OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE LOW FILLS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY
BROAD SHALLOW TROUGHING REMAINS FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH IT. MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS RATHER
LIMITED. UPPER FLOW FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY SATURDAY...WITH WEAK
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
ON WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR
BETWEEN A WARM FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE SOUTHEAST STAYS IN THIS WARM
MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
THE BLUE RIDGE THAT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THERE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FIELD THRU THE
EARLY MRNG. LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS HOWEVER HAS FORMED JUST TO THE S
AND SW AND MAY EXPAND FURTHER TOWARD THE FIELD. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE
OUT IFR. I AM LIKELY TO AMD FOR A TEMPO IF ANY CLOUDS BELOW 010 ARE
REPORTED. OVERALL FCST REMAINS THE SAME AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES
TODAY. PASSING S/W TROF WITH A WEAK SFC LOW WILL PASS ACRS THE OHIO
VALLEY PULLING A WEAK FRONT. THESE FEATURES WILL ENHANCE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL CONVERGENCE LATE IN THE DAY TO BRING PROB30
RANGE TSRA CHANCES IN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.
ELSEWHERE...MCS WILL SKIRT PAST THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AM...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT OVER OUR AREA IN BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DRIVE DISCRETE CELLS INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. KAND/KAVL ARE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY SOME OF THESE
CELLS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND FEATURE TEMPOS FOR TSRA...WITH THE OTHER
SITES NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE WOODS BUT WITH LOWER CHANCES ONLY
WARRANTING VCTS/VCSH. LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND OVER MOST
OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS AND PERSIST THRU 13-14Z. TSRA COULD
ACTUALLY LEAD TO SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THEY PASS DUE TO THE DOWNWARD
MOTION PROVIDED BY RAIN. IN GENERAL TRENDS FOR TODAY ARE SIMILAR TO
KCLT...WITH FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PROB30 TSRA DURING
PEAK HEATING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE AGAIN PROGGED
TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG MAY FORM.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z
KCLT HIGH 98% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 92%
KGSP HIGH 89% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 79% MED 78% MED 68% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 91% MED 72% MED 75%
KGMU HIGH 83% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
323 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TODAY...WITH A TRAILING FRONT/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONFLICTING SIGNALS REGARDING
SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM AND
RAP SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING IN ERN KY AND SW VA LATER THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS NOTHING. SREF PLUMES OF QPF SHOW A
WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN MEMBERS TODAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MEAN AND
HAVE POPS RISING TO HIGH CHANCES NORTH AFTER 12Z...THEN DECREASING
AFTER 18Z. THERE ARE ALSO BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS
REGARDING HOW UNSTABLE IT WILL BE TODAY. WITH QUITE A BIT OF HIGH
CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...INSTABILITY AND THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY BE LOW. STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW TONIGHT...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT ENDING
ANY PRECIP CHANCES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED IS AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY
OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO HAVE
SOME MINOR DISAGREEMENTS AND WILL BASE THE FORECAST ALONG WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
FOR MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DRY. BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES WITH STREAM OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SCATTERED-BROKEN
COVERAGE OF STORMS ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE.
FOR FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH HAS EXITED THE GREAT LAKES...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF STORMS. FOR SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE...BUT CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW ON
LOCATION OF BOUNDARY.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GFX MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 66 88 68 / 30 10 10 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 64 87 67 / 40 10 10 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 64 86 66 / 30 10 10 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 60 84 60 / 50 20 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST BY 10-11 PM. THEREAFTER...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. AT THAT
TIME...LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE MIDSOUTH...WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG ROTATION AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID EVENING
HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH MAY SEE PULSE TYPE SEVERE
WEATHER EARLY AND POTENTIALLY A STRONGER ORGANIZED LINE OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
SUNDAY...AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
TOMORROW...WHERE THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE
A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. TO THE NORTH A SLIGHTLY COOLER/MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY FILTER IN...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS IN
THIS AREA. THE FRONT WILL WAVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FIRST OVER ARKANSAS BY
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
GET PINCHED OFF OVER THE PLAINS AND BECOME CLOSED ON MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OVER THE OZARKS ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE
SLOWLY MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOW...COUPLED WITH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MEAN A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES. FLASH-FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT. HAVE
LEANED MORE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF ON KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LEFT
IN THE SHORTWAVE`S WAKE...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE NIGHT.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IS HELPING TO PROVIDE AT LEAST
A LITTLE WIND TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. SO FAR NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE AT KMKL AND KTUP AND INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT THOSE SITES. EXPECT KMEM AND KJBR TO REMAIN VFR.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A VFR DAY WITH THE BOUNDARY PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THINK THAT EVEN KTUP WILL ESCAPE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM LIGHT SW TO LIGHT NORTH ON SUNDAY.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
355 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF BUSY DAYS AHEAD WITH STORM CHANCES. CURRENT QLCS NOW
ABOUT TO ENTER FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF OUR CWA. MUCAPE VALUES
1000-1500 J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 25-30 KTS
FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH NORTHWEST OF A CISCO-MINERAL WELLS-GAINESVILLE LINE. THE
QLCS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE AS A 30-35 KT LLJ WEAKENS
AND VEERS AND ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. STILL
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WEST-THROUGH NORTH OF THE DFW METRO THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THROW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AND MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING/SOUTHERN MONTANA. HAVE
RAISED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH FOR THE
CURRENT QLCS...DESPITE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. DID RAISE
THESE SAME SAME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY PER TECH/ARW WRF AND HRRR MODEL INDICATIONS THAT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CAPPING
VERSION WILL HAVE LIKELY BEEN WEAKENED BY THIS MORNING/S QLCS TO
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL. THERE ARE PLENTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL (CAP/
MOISTURE) AND MESOSCALE (OUTFLOW/STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER) PLAYERS INVOLVED TODAY TO MAKE THIS FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY THAT DO POP UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DOWNBURST WINDS
AND SOME SMALLER HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. IN SIMILAR FASHION AS SEEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...
STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER QLCS AS 35-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT. BULK OF THE STORMS WILL
CONGEAL ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...THUS THE COMPLEX FORECAST REGARDING POPS AND
TIMING. FEELING RIGHT NOW IS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 380 AND THE RED
RIVER...AND ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE BEST BETS
FOR STORMS THIS EVENING. MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TO ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL THE OF THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS. WITH THE STRONG LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS...MUCH OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION OUTSIDE OF OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
BE LIFTED AND ERODED. LOOK FOR 60-80% COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF...WITH MORE ISOLATED-SCATTERED ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST
HALF WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO ERODE THE CAP AND WILL BE AWAITING
THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MONDAY ACTIVITY AS ANOTHER
WEAKENING TREND OCCURS AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE PER THE SAME REASONS
MENTIONED EARLIER FOR THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR EASTERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREAS...AS LIFT FROM THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ERODE ANY REMAINING CAPPING INVERSION LEFT WITHIN OUR
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. VERY GUSTY WINDS...SMALLER HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE THE FRONT
AND STORMS...WE DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL TO EXCEED 1-2 INCHES AND DO
NOT PLAN ON ANY HYDROLOGICAL WATCHES AT THIS TIME FOR THE CWA. BEING
IN A DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS HOPED THE RAIN COMES DOWN
STEADILY ENOUGH NOT TO RUN OFF AND ACTUALLY BENEFIT THE AREA LAKES
TO SOME DEGREE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE ADVANCING AND CLEAR THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE
UPPER HIGH THAT HAD REGRESSED BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
RETURN THE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK. LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE LEFT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LIKELY WEAKENING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
CONCERNS...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
11-16Z SUNDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AT WACO 12-16Z SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
TEXAS FROM JUST SOUTH OF ARDMORE /KADM/ TO ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH
OF WICHITA FALLS /KSPS/ TO NEAR LUBBOCK /KLBB/ AT 04Z. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 10-20 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS TO ITS SOUTH.
A MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEM /MCS/ DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OR EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRECKENRIDGE
/KBKD/ TO MINERAL WELLS /KWML/ TO PARIS /KPRX/. HAVE KEPT VCTS IN
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR THE 11Z TO 16Z PERIOD AS THE MCS
SHOULD WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY 16Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THE CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WHICH SHOULD MEAN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE METROPLEX DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.
HAVE PLACED VCSH STARTING AT 06Z SUNDAY AND VCTS STARTING AT 09Z
SUNDAY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.
SOME STRATUS MAY ATTEMPT TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE WACO AREA
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SO HAVE PLACED BKN020 IN THE WACO
TAF FOR THE 12Z TO 16Z SUNDAY PERIOD.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 70 86 67 90 / 50 80 50 20 10
WACO, TX 91 73 89 69 92 / 20 30 50 30 10
PARIS, TX 85 70 83 64 83 / 60 70 60 30 20
DENTON, TX 88 70 84 64 87 / 70 80 50 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 88 71 83 65 86 / 50 80 60 20 10
DALLAS, TX 90 72 86 68 88 / 40 70 50 20 10
TERRELL, TX 90 73 87 66 89 / 20 50 60 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 89 72 87 68 88 / 10 30 50 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 89 69 91 / 20 20 50 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 69 86 63 89 / 60 80 30 20 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
403 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Large MCS in the South Plains, just west and north of the Big Country
at 2 AM, will spread eastward across the Big Country this morning.
The HRRR model seems to be handling this mesoscale convective
complex the best, pushing the leading edge of storms, east of
Abilene at 7 AM this morning. It also sends a thunderstorm outflow
boundary southward to San Angelo to Brownwood around noon. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to redevelop late morning and afternoon in
the Big Country, with isolated storms farther southward in the
Concho Valley and to Brownwood. GFS SB CAPES of 1300 to 1800 J/KG
and 0-6 KM Bulk Shears indicate the potential for severe
thunderstorms. A tornado also possible, but large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats.
Tonight, isolated diurnal thunderstorms may stay around during the
evening, with another large MCS moving in from the South Plains, as
a weak cold front approaches the region. The Big Country will again
see the best chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, with
decreasing chances south.
04
.LONG TERM...
(Monday and Monday Night)
A weak cold front will move south across West Central Texas and
extend rain chances into Monday night. The severe weather threat
looks low for Monday and Monday night; however, there remains a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of a
line from Sonora, to Eden, to Brownwood. The primary threats are
large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning.
Otherwise, models continue in good agreement with the timing of
Monday`s front; the GFS is slightly slower than the NAM. By Monday
afternoon, most of West Central Texas should have northerly surface
winds. The GFS is more aggressive with QPF than the NAM for Monday,
and it brings a convective complex south across West Central Texas
with the front. A compromise between these two models looks best for
Monday PoPs, with the greatest rain chances mainly along and east of
a Sweetwater, to San Angelo, to Junction line. Highs on Monday close
to MOS guidance look best, with numbers at Abilene and San Angelo
slightly below seasonal normals. For Monday night, the GFS indicates
showers and thunderstorms may linger along and near where the front
will stall; however, confidence for where the front may stall isn`t
very high. Thus, 20 PoPs across a broad area of West Central Texas
looks best for Monday night. Lows Monday night close to MOS guidance
also looks reasonable.
(Tuesday through Saturday)
The remainder of the Long Term looks dry, with temperatures
gradually warming through the end of this week and into the start of
next weekend. By late week, a broad upper ridge builds over the
southwestern CONUS; nevertheless, northwest flow aloft over much of
Texas would be favorable for nocturnal MCS scenarios.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 87 66 85 63 89 / 60 60 30 20 5
San Angelo 91 68 88 65 92 / 30 40 20 20 5
Junction 91 73 89 67 92 / 20 20 20 20 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
215 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THIS
TROUGHING...THE MOST NOTABLE SHORTWAVES INCLUDE ONE NEAR CHICAGO...
ANOTHER IN IDAHO AND A THIRD OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA. THE SHORTWAVE
NEAR CHICAGO HELPED BRING SOME OF THE RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY...WHICH HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL DEALING
WITH COLD FRONTAL INVERSION STRATUS AS SEEN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND 11-3.9UM IMAGERY. THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING HAVING A 925MB TEMP OF
10C COMPARED TO 17C AT DVN AND GRB REFLECTS THE COLD FRONT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEEN CLEARING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS DRIER AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z INL AND ABR SOUNDINGS ADVECTS
SOUTH. BOTH SOUNDINGS WERE WARMER AT 925MB AS WELL...AROUND 15C.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALSO ACCOMPANIED THE CLEARING. SOME
FOG HAS FORMED WITHIN THE CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
WISCOSNIN.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO THE IDAHO SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING AS IT REACHES WESTERN KS BY 12Z
MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GRAND FORKS ND AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY
INTO THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...LEAVING PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME MORNING FOG DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOSTLY
PRIOR TO 13Z...OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 16C AT 00Z SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A 100-120 KT UPPER JET STREAK TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GRAND FORKS AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
CIRCULATION IS INDICATED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA...LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
JET STREAK. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE 07.12Z ECMWF AND 08.00Z NAM WANT
TO SPREAD THE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST...COMPARED TO THE 08.00Z GFS/REGIONAL
CANADIAN. THE FARTHER EAST MODELS SUGGEST 60-70 PERCENT CHANCES
WOULD BE WARRANTED WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS WOULD
BE DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH 30-40
PERCENT CHANCES. EITHER SCENARIO SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...
WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING IN WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD
BE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. STAYED WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR LOWS...THOUGH DID LEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF WI GIVEN LONGER PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED
THERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SIMILAR TO THE TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SHORTWAVE OVER GRAND FORKS AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
PUSH THE UPPER JET STREAK EASTWARD...SO EVENTUALLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE FRONTOGENTICAL
CIRCULATION. ONCE THAT OCCURS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO
FALL APART...WHICH THE 08.00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN ALL SHOW
OCCURRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST IS THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. HERE THE NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE
ECMWF ARE THE MOST BULLISH AND FARTHEST EAST...WHEREAS THE REGIONAL
CANADIAN/GFS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT SOME LOWER 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THE NORTHWEST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 2 SCENARIOS WHICH SUPPORTS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES.
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE VICINITY OF DODGE COUNTY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION FOR THE FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM KS AND OK ON
MONDAY TO THE CHICAGO AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL FIGHT DRY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY DRY.
THAT GOOD AGREEMENT FALLS APART FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHERE
THE 08.00Z GFS WANTS TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS THE 08.00Z NAM/CANADIAN/07.12Z ECMWF
REFLECT A DRY FORECAST. NEW 08.00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MAYBE SLIGHTLY
WETTER...MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST 1/3 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH LEANED DRIER...KEPT THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. DID THROW 20 PERCENT CHANCES A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW ECMWF...
HOWEVER.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST
FORCING FOR THIS TROUGH STAYS TO THE NORTH...BUT DID KEEP SOME
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN A COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD GET RELATIVELY COOL AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 6-8C
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING UNSETTLED AS A
POSITIVELY TITLED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S.. LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT THAT THEY WILL HAVE MOVED PAST KRST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
06Z WHILE HANGING ON AT KLSE UNTIL 08Z OR SO. CEILINGS GO UP TO
VFR ONCE THESE MVFR CLOUDS MOVE PAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THESE VFR CEILINGS WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE THE SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR
OUT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AND POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME
FOG TO FORM AT KRST LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON THE FOG FORMING
HAS COME DOWN AS BOTH THE 08.00Z NAM AND 08.02Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 KNOTS WITH ONLY A SHALLOW
LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS. HAVE GONE FROM CATEGORICAL MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE FOG TO INCLUDING IT IN A TEMPO GROUP. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY KEEPING THE SKIES CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1121 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE AROUND A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
RUNNING SFC FRONT...FUELED BY A RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. MOSTLY JUST BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE PRODUCED SMALL HAIL.
THE FRONT WILL EASE EAST TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO CENTRAL IL. PCPN ON THE NORTHSIDE OF THE LOW COULD
ENCROACH INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...BEFORE ALL THE
FORCING MECHANISMS AND ACCOMPANYING PCPN SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS FOR SUNDAY...AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...MID 70S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT STILL
FAIRLY PLEASANT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MONDAY IS PROVING CHALLENGING AS THE NAM/EC/GFS/GEM ALL PRESENT
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES RELATING TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND
BITS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QFP PRODUCTION...WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WITH THE
BITS OF ENERGY ALOFT SPARKING SHOWERS/STORMS. THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN PLACED LOW...NOT MAKING IT A FACTOR FOR THE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL TUE. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS...AS IS THE
ECMWF.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THAT A SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE RIDING IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
COULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. SOME HINTS OF THIS IN THE GEM AND
NAM...BUT NOT AS MUCH.
THE SOUTHERN FEATURE HAS MORE DYNAMICS/MOISTURE SUPPORT...AND SHOULD
PROVIDE THE GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. GOING TO LEAN TOWARD
THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS WITH THIS FOR MONDAY. WILL ALSO LIKELY
KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
GFS/ECMWF IN FAVOR OF A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING...ZONAL FLOW A LOFT
THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ALONG THIS
CURRENT...AND COULD BRING THE AREA SOME SHOWERS/STORMS. AS CAN BE
EXPECTED...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE/HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE PERIODS/SHORTWAVES THAT THE MODELS HAVE SOME
AGREEMENT ON. ONE IS FOR TUE-WED PERIOD WHEN THE GFS/EC FAVOR TAKING
A SHORTWAVE/CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FLOW
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FEATURE WEAKENS/FILLS AS IT
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES...BUT AN AREA OF PCPN IS PRODUCED
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF ITS TRACK. THE GFS BRINGS THE SHOWER THREAT A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE EC...AND THUS GREATER CHANCES FOR THE
FORECAST AREA TO GET WET. WILL SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
THE NEXT PERIOD WHERE SOLUTIONS ARE MORE SIMILAR IS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS DRIVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...SLIDING A NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS MN. GOOD
FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL FUEL THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT TRENDS BRING
THE HIGHER CHANCES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT THAT THEY WILL HAVE MOVED PAST KRST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
06Z WHILE HANGING ON AT KLSE UNTIL 08Z OR SO. CEILINGS GO UP TO
VFR ONCE THESE MVFR CLOUDS MOVE PAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THESE VFR CEILINGS WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE THE SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR
OUT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AND POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME
FOG TO FORM AT KRST LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON THE FOG FORMING
HAS COME DOWN AS BOTH THE 08.00Z NAM AND 08.02Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 KNOTS WITH ONLY A SHALLOW
LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS. HAVE GONE FROM CATEGORICAL MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE FOG TO INCLUDING IT IN A TEMPO GROUP. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY KEEPING THE SKIES CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE HAS CAUSED LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. WEBCAMS SHOW DENSE FOG
ALONG INTERSTATE 8O FROM CHEYENNE TO THE SUMMIT AND WITH THE
UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-MORNING...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILL ZONE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CENTRAL LARAMIE
COUNTY SINCE VIS AT CYS HAS DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. SHORTWAVE
SHOWS UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
WY. GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA HOWEVER INTO
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 18Z AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA
BY 00Z. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
THERE IS BY EARLY AFTN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THIS SEEMS
LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP. TSTM
POTENTIAL REALLY DROPS OFF AFTER AROUND 21Z BEHIND THE FROPA. THE
COMBINATION OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE PLAINS AND
ESPECIALLY THE PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTN THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO
RAPIDLY SHUT OFF BY LATE EVENING. IT WILL BE A QUITE COOL NIGHT
UPCOMING AS THE SFC HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST WY. GUIDANCE
HAS LOWS IN LARAMIE AROUND FREEZING SO DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO
CONSIDER A FROST ADVISORY IN THE LARAMIE VALLEY AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE EXCELLENT BY LATE TONIGHT. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS
STILL PROGGED OVER THE REGION BY MON AND INTO TUES WITH PW VALUES
DROPPING TO BELOW 0.5 INCHES. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIM AND DONT
REALLY HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU TUES. MAY EVEN HAVE
TROUBLE GETTING MUCH CUMULUS ON MON (LI VALUES ARE ABOVE 3C).
WHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON MON...THE BIGGER WARMUP IS NOT
UNTIL TUES WHEN 700MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 14C. THIS TRANSLATES
INTO A 20-25 DEGREE WARMUP COMPARED TO THIS WEEKENDS COOL TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN
THE LATE MORNING. WESTERLY SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
THE LLVLS SOMEWHAT DRY SO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY BE TOO STRONG
FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE BETTER UPPER
FORCING MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON...LOOKING AT A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO THE PAC NW. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SO TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER OUT WEST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE EAST WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT
HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO EXPECT A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST UPSLOPE FORCING AND HIGHER
LLVL MOISTURE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN WY/MT. THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS TIME SO LOOKING AT SFC
TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH 700 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 12-14C. EVEN WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEESIDE TROUGH AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS...AND CONTINUED LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT COULD CAP THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LEFT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BUT NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOP. THE
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. SFC FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT
OF HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW T-STORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...BUT CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND
MAY ONLY LIFT TO MVFR HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS POSSIBLE
AFTER 20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS ON MONDAY WILL CAUSE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20-30 PERCENT. MORE WARMING IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT FOR
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO WANE SLOWLY AS MELTING FROM SOURCE SNOW
COVER DIMINISHES. STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE ALONG
THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCATIONS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MINOR FLOODING WILL DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
922 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SHORTWV TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH DRIVING A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED AT LOWER VALLEY
SENSORS IN EASTERN UTAH...INCLUDING CANYONLANDS AIRPORT NORTH OF
MOAB. THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AT A FEW SITES. HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO FIT THIS
LINE...WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
COOL FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAKES IT AN ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT IS A
SHORT WAVE THAT DESIRES A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION AS IT DIGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE. NOT MUCH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE...BUT A
DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AS HUMIDITY SURGES
HIGHER. AIR MASS BECOMES CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION KEEPING LAPSE RATES STEEP. AFTERNOON
CAPE VALUES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RANGE BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG...WITH THE RAP MODEL SHOWING A POCKET OF 1000+ J/KG FOR NW
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DESERT
VALLEYS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND THEREFORE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
IS HIGH. HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF RECEIVING
SOME RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS GENERATING BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS...MOST LIKELY TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE.
SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE SRN VALLEYS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SPEED SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST REACHES 30-35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL
BE COMMON FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CORTEZ TO DURANGO WITH WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH. THIS IS A COMBINATION OF A DEEP MIXED
LAYER...APPROACHING JET MAXIMA...LOCATION OF FRONT...AND THE
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT THAT CONTRIBUTES TO THE STRONG WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF AN ISOLATED STORM REACHES SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
TONIGHT THE FLOW VEERS FROM NW TO NORTH WHILE MOISTURE QUICKLY
ERODES. EVENING SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE EXPECTED
TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS...AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW AVERAGE. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE THE
LEAST WARM DAY OF THE NEW WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEATING. INCREASED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSHOWERS.
A DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL THREATEN MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS FOR MOST
VALLEYS. ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY JUNE WEATHER REMAINS THE MAIN
THEME. A SHORT WAVE THE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS, AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...FAVORING WESTERN COLORADO AFTER 16Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 30-40 KTS WILL BE COMMON FROM ANY NEARBY STORMS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DESERT TAF SITES. FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...PASSING STORMS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF +SHRAGS WITH LOWER CIGS. STORMS WILL
BE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z. BENIGN WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
UPDATE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES TODAY WITH THE ADDITION
OF ZONE 291 TO THE RED FLAG WARNINGS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER A WEEK OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WARRANT THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS TODAY...COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.
THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING AND PASSING VIRGA/SHOWERS WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THIS WARM REGIME AND DRY FUELS WILL PRODUCE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR COLORADO ZONE 207 BELOW 9500 FEET AND FOR
COLORADO ZONE 203 BELOW 6000 FEET.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY. RIDGING WILL BRING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE MORE WIND AND DRY
LIGHTNING THAN RAIN AND THUS MAY BE A ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
RIVER AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS THE MOUNTAIN
SNOWPACK MELTS UNDER PERSISTENT WARM TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST
FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON BASIN
IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. AS A RESULT...A NUMBER OF FLOOD ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO
...AND NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ203-207-291.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ021-022.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JOE/TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
COOL FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAKES IT AN ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT IS A
SHORT WAVE THAT DESIRES A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION AS IT DIGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE. NOT MUCH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE...BUT A
DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AS HUMIDITY SURGES
HIGHER. AIR MASS BECOMES CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION KEEPING LAPSE RATES STEEP. AFTERNOON
CAPE VALUES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RANGE BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG...WITH THE RAP MODEL SHOWING A POCKET OF 1000+ J/KG FOR NW
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DESERT
VALLEYS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND THEREFORE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
IS HIGH. HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF RECEIVING
SOME RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS GENERATING BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS...MOST LIKELY TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE.
SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE SRN VALLEYS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SPEED SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST REACHES 30-35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL
BE COMMON FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CORTEZ TO DURANGO WITH WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH. THIS IS A COMBINATION OF A DEEP MIXED
LAYER...APPROACHING JET MAXIMA...LOCATION OF FRONT...AND THE
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT THAT CONTRIBUTES TO THE STRONG WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF AN ISOLATED STORM REACHES SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
TONIGHT THE FLOW VEERS FROM NW TO NORTH WHILE MOISTURE QUICKLY
ERODES. EVENING SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE EXPECTED
TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS...AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW AVERAGE. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE THE
LEAST WARM DAY OF THE NEW WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEATING. INCREASED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSHOWERS.
A DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL THREATEN MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS FOR MOST
VALLEYS. ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY JUNE WEATHER REMAINS THE MAIN
THEME. A SHORT WAVE THE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS, AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...FAVORING WESTERN COLORADO AFTER 16Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 30-40 KTS WILL BE COMMON FROM ANY NEARBY STORMS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DESERT TAF SITES. FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...PASSING STORMS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF +SHRAGS WITH LOWER CIGS. STORMS WILL
BE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z. BENIGN WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
UPDATE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES TODAY WITH THE ADDITION
OF ZONE 291 TO THE RED FLAG WARNINGS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER A WEEK OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WARRANT THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS TODAY...COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.
THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING AND PASSING VIRGA/SHOWERS WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THIS WARM REGIME AND DRY FUELS WILL PRODUCE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR COLORADO ZONE 207 BELOW 9500 FEET AND FOR
COLORADO ZONE 203 BELOW 6000 FEET.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY. RIDGING WILL BRING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE MORE WIND AND DRY
LIGHTNING THAN RAIN AND THUS MAY BE A ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
RIVER AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS THE MOUNTAIN
SNOWPACK MELTS UNDER PERSISTENT WARM TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST
FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON BASIN
IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. AS A RESULT...A NUMBER OF FLOOD ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO
...AND NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ203-207-291.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ021-022.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JOE/TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
948 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTEND EAST
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE 500 MB
TEMPS TO WARM UP FROM -9.5C THIS MORNING TO -7.5C THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PWAT VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 1.7
TO 1.8 INCH RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. SO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STORMS WILL BE MORE OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME POPCORN TYPE.
THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL COLLIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER THE METRO AREAS.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. SO WILL SHOW A 20 TO 30 POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS FOR THIS EVENING WITH THE METRO AREAS REMAINING
DRY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...THOUGH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY INDUCE BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS...PARTICULARLY AT MORE INLAND TERMINALS /MIA/TMB/FXE.
INITATION TIME IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 18Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH...SO VCTS SUFFICES FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN SE BY NOON
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. LIGHT/CALM WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED TO THE WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SET UP AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AIDING IN MAINTAINING A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED SOUTH FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST. RADAR
INDICATED 40-50 KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES BUT THE ONLY OBSERVATION THAT
SHOWED THIS WAS THE NORTHERN TOWER ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A 39 KNOT
GUST JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THIS CLUSTER IS NOW WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING AN EARLY START TO THE ACTIVITY AT AROUND 15-16Z.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL
ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS
500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -8 TO -9C RANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE WET
BULB ZERO AT JUST OVER 12K. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE
FOR HAIL BUT THERE WERE REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE SO WILL PLACE THIS IN THE HWO. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WILL THE SURFACE RIDGE SO NOT
MANY CHANGES SEEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGES TAKE PLACE WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE GFS HAS FINALLY BACKED OFF IN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR AT LEAST HAS DELAYED IT UNTIL BEYOND THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. IT IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
SHOWING. THAT IS KEEPING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2
FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO SEAS COULD
BE LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 75 88 76 / 20 10 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 76 87 76 / 20 10 40 30
MIAMI 92 76 87 76 / 20 10 40 30
NAPLES 90 75 88 75 / 20 10 40 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...THOUGH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY INDUCE BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS...PARTICULARLY AT MORE INLAND TERMINALS /MIA/TMB/FXE.
INITATION TIME IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 18Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH...SO VCTS SUFFICES FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN SE BY NOON
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. LIGHT/CALM WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED TO THE WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SET UP AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AIDING IN MAINTAINING A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED SOUTH FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST. RADAR
INDICATED 40-50 KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES BUT THE ONLY OBSERVATION THAT
SHOWED THIS WAS THE NORTHERN TOWER ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A 39 KNOT
GUST JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THIS CLUSTER IS NOW WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING AN EARLY START TO THE ACTIVITY AT AROUND 15-16Z.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL
ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS
500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -8 TO -9C RANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE WET
BULB ZERO AT JUST OVER 12K. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE
FOR HAIL BUT THERE WERE REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE SO WILL PLACE THIS IN THE HWO. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WILL THE SURFACE RIDGE SO NOT
MANY CHANGES SEEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGES TAKE PLACE WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE GFS HAS FINALLY BACKED OFF IN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR AT LEAST HAS DELAYED IT UNTIL BEYOND THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. IT IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
SHOWING. THAT IS KEEPING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2
FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO SEAS COULD
BE LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 75 88 76 / 50 30 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 76 87 76 / 40 30 40 30
MIAMI 89 76 87 76 / 50 30 40 30
NAPLES 88 75 88 75 / 30 20 40 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 10 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary,
weak frontal system along the SC-GA border through western TN, a
weak ridge across the FL Peninsula, and a meso high (preceded by
an outflow boundary to its south and east) in northern AL. The
NCEP WRF ARW and 04 UTC HRRR forecast this MCS to gradually weaken
as it propagates quickly east-southeastward across northern
portions of our forecast area before dawn, but some of this area
may still get some brief rain. Otherwise, we expect scattered
mainly afternoon thunderstorms to develop along various mesoscale
boundaries, especially the sea breeze front (which may not begin
moving inland until mid afternoon due to opposing 1000-700 mb
winds). The PoP ranges from 30% at the coast to 50% in GA & AL.
Highs will be in the mid 90s. A few storms could be strong to
marginally severe, though the 700-500 mb lapse rates and 0-6km
bulk shear may not be quite as favorable for strong updrafts and
storm organization as the past few days.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
A mid-upper level ridge is expected to become better established
over the Southeast as an anomalously strong closed low takes shape
near the Ozarks late Monday into Tuesday. This is expected to
suppress convective activity more than we have seen in recent
days, so afternoon-evening PoPs are expected to be more in the
20-30% range. Highs should continue to be slightly above normal
with little change in 925-850mb temperatures or 1000-500mb
thicknesses - most likely in the lows-mid 90s.
.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The long term period is expected to be fairly wet as we begin to
transition to an active pattern. Models are in fair agreement
that we will see a dry and warm beginning to the long term period
with below normal PWATs through Tuesday evening. Thereafter, an H3
trough will begin to move southeast out of the Central Plains into
our forecast area Tuesday night. With this trough, global models
do show below normal H5 temps and near normal PWATs for our region
on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, so some strong storms are
not out of the question and will need to be watched in the future.
After Thursday, the global models are in fair agreement that we
will continue into a relatively active summer-time pattern with
showers and thunderstorms forming each afternoon.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] Most of the rain has ended, and there will be a
period of fair weather until this afternoon. Scattered TSRA will
develop this afternoon & evening, with brief periods of IFR cigs/vis
and gusty winds in the stronger storms.
&&
.Marine...
With a relatively weak surface pressure pattern typical of summer
around here, winds should be less than 15 knots for the
foreseeable future with seas 2 feet or less in most locations. The
highest seas may actually be closer to the coast - in the late
afternoon or evening hours - due to the daily sea-breeze
enhancement of winds in those areas.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected.
&&
.Hydrology...
Other than right near the Gulf coast, fairly widespread rain
totals of at least 0.25", and as much as 2", have been seen over
the past couple days. This has been sufficient to produce some
minor rises on area rivers, but no river flooding is expected.
Some slow-moving storms may produce localized flooding issues,
particularly in the mid-late part of the upcoming work week as
deeper atmospheric moisture returns to the area.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 72 94 71 94 / 40 30 30 10 20
Panama City 87 74 87 74 88 / 30 20 20 10 10
Dothan 93 73 94 72 93 / 50 30 30 10 10
Albany 94 72 95 72 93 / 50 30 30 10 20
Valdosta 95 70 96 70 95 / 50 40 30 10 30
Cross City 92 71 91 70 92 / 30 30 30 10 30
Apalachicola 89 74 87 73 88 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
815 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT HAD MOVED INTO THE MIDLANDS HAS NOW
WEAKENED. LATEST HRRR MODELS SUGGESTS WEAKENING TREND AS STORMS
MOVE INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
1.75 INCHES. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. AIR
MASS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DEGREE. BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS APPEAR TO FAVOR CSRA AND WEST
MIDLANDS. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE UNSTABLE MONDAY AS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS MONDAY AND NOTE UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER
APPEARS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE/PIEDMONT AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE. STRONGER INSTABILITY TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUE CHANCE
OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THEN
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREVIOUS BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CSRA HAS WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO THE MIDLANDS. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH
WHERE NEEDED...WITH SOME MVFR FOG AT DNL. STILL SOME STRATUS ACROSS
THE AREA. IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE FA TODAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO S TO SW AND INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE NC AND AS A TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHES OUR FA
FROM THE WEST. OVERALL INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER...BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
627 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CSRA INTO THE MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODELS SUGGESTS WEAKENING TREND AS
STORMS MOVE INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS FROM
THE CSRA TO CENTRAL MIDLANDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.75 INCHES. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. AIR
MASS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DEGREE. BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS APPEAR TO FAVOR CSRA AND WEST
MIDLANDS. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE UNSTABLE MONDAY AS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS MONDAY AND NOTE UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER
APPEARS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE/PIEDMONT AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE. STRONGER INSTABILITY TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUE CHANCE
OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THEN
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF WEAKENING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION INTERACTED WITH
SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE CSRA TO FRONT TO PROVIDE A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CSRA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST BUT SHOW A TREND
TOWARDS WEAKENING. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS/VCSH...WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
SHRA ACTIVITY IN THE NEAR TERM. STRATUS AREA THAT HAD COVERED MUCH
OF THE FA EARLIER THIS MORNING APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED. IT
APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE FA TODAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL VEER TO S TO SW AND INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE NC AND AS A TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHES OUR FA FROM
THE WEST. OVERALL INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1131 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
PRETTY NO SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SO
FAR THIS MORNING. IN FACT...BASED ON RADAR DATA FROM THE PAST FEW
HOURS THERE MAY ONLY HAVE A BEEN A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS FORM OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT PRODUCED EVEN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION ON THE
GROUND. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING STRONGER AND STRONGER
CAPPING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY TO MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE WITH NO CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT ALL
CONSIDERING THE CAPPING SHOWING UP IN THE SOUNDINGS. ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER TOWARD THIS MORNINGS OBS AND CARRIED THAT TREND OUT THROUGH 0Z
TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. UPDATED ZONES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST IS CREATING SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
HAVE EVEN PICKED UP ON A LITTLE CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING FROM TIME TO
TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT
10 MPH OR SO BEHIND A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. WINDS
MAY GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES. ALSO...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING SOME LIGHT FOG FROM
STRATUS BUILD DOWN LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT
FOG IN THE UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
IN GENERAL LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE PESSIMISTIC WHEN
COMPARED TO REALITY...AND IT APPEARS THESE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN...CURRENTLY
PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA...IS FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS HAD
ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. AS A RESULT EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RESTING
RELATIVELY QUIETLY BETWEEN A STORM COMPLEX DRIVING THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS CORRESPONDING CONVECTION RIDING NORTHWEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS LIMITED
ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WHILE THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FIRED ACROSS PORTIONS
FORECAST AREA...OVERALL RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN HARD TO IGNORE.
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MISS MUCH OF OUR CWA. IN ADDITION
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED AS WELL THOUGH SPC STILL HAS A COUPLE COUNTIES IN OUR
EXTREME EAST IN A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO RIDE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
GENERAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
VERY CLOSE TO NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF LOW
WILL START OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BEING PULLED INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE RESIDUAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL GO
WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS SINCE TIMING ANY GIVEN
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. IN
GENERAL...POP CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST OVERALL FORCING AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HOW
QUICKLY RIDGING RETURNS. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE
TROUGH INFLUENCE AND KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST IS CREATING SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
HAVE EVEN PICKED UP ON A LITTLE CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING FROM TIME TO
TIME. COVERAGE IS NOT EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN
VCSH WITHIN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10KTS BEHIND A PASSING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. MODELS ADVERTISING A LOWER OF CIGS AND VSBY
THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO SOME STRATUS
BUILD DOWN. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE BY LOWER CIGS AND ADDED SOME LIGHT
FOG...BUT DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC AS GUIDANCE SINCE UPSTREAM OBS
SUGGEST INCOMING CIGS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS MODELS ARE
FORECASTING. WINDS SLACKEN AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
716 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST IS CREATING SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
HAVE EVEN PICKED UP ON A LITTLE CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING FROM TIME TO
TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT
10 MPH OR SO BEHIND A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. WINDS
MAY GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES. ALSO...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING SOME LIGHT FOG FROM
STRATUS BUILD DOWN LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT
FOG IN THE UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
IN GENERAL LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE PESSIMISTIC WHEN
COMPARED TO REALITY...AND IT APPEARS THESE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN...CURRENTLY
PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA...IS FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS HAD
ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. AS A RESULT EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RESTING
RELATIVELY QUIETLY BETWEEN A STORM COMPLEX DRIVING THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS CORRESPONDING CONVECTION RIDING NORTHWEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS LIMITED
ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WHILE THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FIRED ACROSS PORTIONS
FORECAST AREA...OVERALL RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN HARD TO IGNORE.
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MISS MUCH OF OUR CWA. IN ADDITION
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED AS WELL THOUGH SPC STILL HAS A COUPLE COUNTIES IN OUR
EXTREME EAST IN A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO RIDE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
GENERAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
VERY CLOSE TO NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF LOW
WILL START OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BEING PULLED INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE RESIDUAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL GO
WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS SINCE TIMING ANY GIVEN
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. IN
GENERAL...POP CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST OVERALL FORCING AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HOW
QUICKLY RIDGING RETURNS. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE
TROUGH INFLUENCE AND KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST IS CREATING SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
HAVE EVEN PICKED UP ON A LITTLE CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING FROM TIME TO
TIME. COVERAGE IS NOT EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN
VCSH WITHIN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10KTS BEHIND A PASSING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. MODELS ADVERTISING A LOWER OF CIGS AND VSBY
THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO SOME STRATUS
BUILD DOWN. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE BY LOWER CIGS AND ADDED SOME LIGHT
FOG...BUT DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC AS GUIDANCE SINCE UPSTREAM OBS
SUGGEST INCOMING CIGS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS MODELS ARE
FORECASTING. WINDS SLACKEN AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT STALLED OUT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WILL FALL APART THIS MORNING... AS A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVERTAKES THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRON OVER SOUTHWESTERN NC AND
UPSTATE SC TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SURFACE TO
925MB...WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DYING MCV
OVER EASTERN TN...ALONG WITH THE 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE (PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS)...MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFTING TOWARD THE
TRIAD BY SUNRISE. THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER RAISES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A SHARP GRADIENT IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST...EXPECT CAPE TO DROP OFF RATHER
QUICKLY FROM US HWY 1 EAST. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DYING MCV AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LATER IN THE EVENING...A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO AN MCS/SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL
WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS SHOW THIS CONVERGENCE
LINE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH PW ABOVE 1.5
INCHES. WITH WINDS STAYING STIRRED OVERNIGHT AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING MID-LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
RAP HODOGRAPHS SHOW SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 150-200 M2/S2 OF 0-3KM SRH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
SPC HAS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN 2 PERCENT PROS FOR TORNADOES...IN
ADDITIONAL TO A GENERAL WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...ITS STILL NOT CERTAIN
HOW STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL BE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LATE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FILLING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER AS A TROUGH AND
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS DIFFER REGARDING WHERE
EXACTLY THE BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE...BUT THERE
IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE FROM
THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WIND FIELDS WILL REMAN WEAK ON MONDAY...SO THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE SMALL AND CONVECTION MORE PULSE-LIKE. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGINNING TO STEEPEN
MONDAY NIGHT...YIELDING SOME ELEVATED CAPE THAT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A WARM... MOIST... AND VOLATILE COLUMN WILL
PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CLOSED LOW SITTING NEAR THE WRN MO/AR
BORDER PUSHES SLOW NE TO IL BY DAYBREAK WED (ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A
TAD SLOWER)... AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER NC WILL START TO GIVE
WAY TO LIGHT SSW FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE SLIPS JUST TO OUR EAST.
NEVERTHELESS... THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STAY VERY WEAK... SO DON`T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THAT SAID... WE`LL
START THE DAY WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000
J/KG ACCORDING TO BOTH THE NAM AND GFS... AND WITH PW VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE OVER 150% OF NORMAL... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO FORCE
SCATTERED PULSE AND MULTICELL CONVECTION EVEN IN THE MORNING AS CINH
RAPIDLY DISAPPEARS WITH HEATING. BY AFTERNOON THE SBCAPE JUMPS TO
1500-2500 J/KG (LOWEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE THE SUBCLOUD LAYER
SHOULD BE DRIER/DEEPER... ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BRING ABOUT BETTER
DCAPE)... AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY
FORMING ON OUTFLOW OR SEA BREEZE FEATURES... MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CWA... ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE AND STORM LIFETIMES
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING FEATURES AND WEAK
WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN. HIGHS 89-93 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THICKNESSES. CONVECTION COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET... ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MARGINAL
TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT... MAINLY
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE PW VALUES REMAIN OVER 150% OF
NORMAL... WHILE DRIER AIR SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT... HIGHEST EAST... WITH LOW TO NO
CHANCES WEST. CONTINUE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS 67-72.
FOR WED-SAT: THE UPPER LOW NEAR STL EARLY WED WILL CONTINUE TO GET
PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING MT/ND/SD... WITH
THE FORMER FEATURE BECOMING WEAKER AND N-S ELONGATED AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THU NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH WILL IMPROVE OVER THE FAR
WRN CWA BUT REMAIN MARGINAL (JUST 20-25 KTS) FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...
WHILE CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS WILL STAY WITHIN A POOR WIND FIELD
REGIME. BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE (BUT
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EAST) AND THE GFS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BOTH WED/THU AFTERNOONS... WITH LINGERING MARGINAL CAPE
AND WEAK CINH OVERNIGHT INTO EACH MORNING. EXPECT THE HIGHEST
CONVECTION COVERAGE OF THE WEEK TO OCCUR ON THESE TWO DAYS. THE
WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FRI (EARLY DAY ON THE FASTER GFS AND LATE DAY ON
THE SLOWER ECMWF)... WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
INTO THE ERN CWA FOR FRI... WITH LOW COVERAGE ON SAT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. (THIS ASSUMES THAT THE GFS`S
DEPICTION OF AN INTENSE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAX PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NRN WV/MD FRI-SAT IS A FEEDBACK ARTIFACT
AND CAN BE SET ASIDE... ALTHOUGH WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL IN LATER FORECASTS.) WILL SHIFT POPS TO MAINLY EAST
ON FRI... WITH JUST 10-20% CHANCES SAT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN NEAR-
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM DAY TO DAY... WITH THICKNESSES HOLDING JUST
ABOVE NORMAL... WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE... WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S... AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DRIFTING TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COASTAL AREAS. A WEAK WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NC AND
UPSTATE SC WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING AS A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF
THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME WEAK ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC
IS LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FOOTHILLS OF NC. WHILE THE SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED WELL WEST OF KINT
AND KGSO...IFR STRATUS HAS SPREAD TO KINT AND IS STILL POSSIBLE AT
KGSO. EXPECT SHOWERS TO FINALLY REACH KINT AND KGSO BY AROUND 14-
15Z...AND CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REDEVELOP.
CONTINUED MOISTENING OVER WESTERN NC AND A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THIS MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
MUCH LESS FROM KRDU TO KRWI AND KFAY. OF THESE THREE SITES...THE
PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE HIGHEST AT KRDU...BUT WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY THIS WEEK...MORE SO OVER EASTERN NC ON MONDAY THEN
SCATTERED ABOUT MOST OF CENTRAL NC EACH DAY THEREAFTER. THERE WILL
ALSO BE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
939 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014
.UPDATE...
We updated the zones based on current observations, satellite, and
radar trends.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
UPDATE...
Updated morning POPS for convective trends.
DISCUSSION...
Increased rain chances to categorical this morning in the Big
Country and likely farther south in the Concho Valley. Storm complex
will dissipate or move east mid morning, but isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely redevelop this
afternoon with the suns heating.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN Jun 8 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
The remnants of the thunderstorm complex were moving east through
the Big County and Concho Valley at 1130Z. Thunder with MVFR CIGS
likely at KABI through mid morning. A brief thunderstorm may also
affect KSJT. Light showers likely across the rest of the TAF sites
this morning. Stratus with MVFR CIGS expected to rise to VFR by late
morning, but returning late tonight. Isolated thunderstorms possible
this afternoon. Best chance will be at KABI, where a VCTS was added
mid afternoon. A second complex of storm is expected late tonight,
mainly affecting KABI, KSJT, and KBBD after 8Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Large MCS in the South Plains, just west and north of the Big Country
at 2 AM, will spread eastward across the Big Country this morning.
The HRRR model seems to be handling this mesoscale convective
complex the best, pushing the leading edge of storms, east of
Abilene at 7 AM this morning. It also sends a thunderstorm outflow
boundary southward to San Angelo to Brownwood around noon. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to redevelop late morning and afternoon in
the Big Country, with isolated storms farther southward in the
Concho Valley and to Brownwood. GFS SB CAPES of 1300 to 1800 J/KG
and 0-6 KM Bulk Shears indicate the potential for severe
thunderstorms. A tornado also possible, but large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats.
Tonight, isolated diurnal thunderstorms may stay around during the
evening, with another large MCS moving in from the South Plains, as
a weak cold front approaches the region. The Big Country will again
see the best chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, with
decreasing chances south.
04
LONG TERM...
(Monday and Monday Night)
A weak cold front will move south across West Central Texas and
extend rain chances into Monday night. The severe weather threat
looks low for Monday and Monday night; however, there remains a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of a
line from Sonora, to Eden, to Brownwood. The primary threats are
large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning.
Otherwise, models continue in good agreement with the timing of
Monday`s front; the GFS is slightly slower than the NAM. By Monday
afternoon, most of West Central Texas should have northerly surface
winds. The GFS is more aggressive with QPF than the NAM for Monday,
and it brings a convective complex south across West Central Texas
with the front. A compromise between these two models looks best for
Monday PoPs, with the greatest rain chances mainly along and east of
a Sweetwater, to San Angelo, to Junction line. Highs on Monday close
to MOS guidance look best, with numbers at Abilene and San Angelo
slightly below seasonal normals. For Monday night, the GFS indicates
showers and thunderstorms may linger along and near where the front
will stall; however, confidence for where the front may stall isn`t
very high. Thus, 20 PoPs across a broad area of West Central Texas
looks best for Monday night. Lows Monday night close to MOS guidance
also looks reasonable.
(Tuesday through Saturday)
The remainder of the Long Term looks dry, with temperatures
gradually warming through the end of this week and into the start of
next weekend. By late week, a broad upper ridge builds over the
southwestern CONUS; nevertheless, northwest flow aloft over much of
Texas would be favorable for nocturnal MCS scenarios.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 87 66 85 63 89 / 40 60 30 20 5
San Angelo 91 68 88 65 92 / 40 40 20 20 5
Junction 91 73 89 67 92 / 70 20 20 20 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Doll/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
832 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RECONFIGURE POPS. THE OVERNIGHT MCS
IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING...BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES
SOUTHEAST WHERE IT IS GENERATING SOME WEAK LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. MORE STEADY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME SUNSHINE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A BIT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO MORNING RAINS AND COLD POOL THAT HAS SPREAD OVER THE
REGION. TR.92
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 549 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE LINE OF STORMS
APPROACHING THE METROPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
FARTHER EAST IT GETS. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA
TAFS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL TEMPO FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PLACES THE LEADING EDGE IN THE METROPLEX RIGHT
AROUND 12Z...SO WILL LIKELY BEGIN THE FORECAST WITH A PREDOMINANT
-TSRA GROUP. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP THE TEMPO TO 12-14Z AND WILL MAKE
THAT DECISION CLOSE TO TAF ISSUANCE. ENDING THE -TSRA AT 16Z LOOKS
GOOD IN ANTICIPATION OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD DISSIPATING LATER
THIS MORNING.
THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTHWEST OF DFW TRACON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERLY CELL
MOVEMENT WOULD BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS IN AND NEAR
THE DFW AREA BY 09/00Z. A THIRD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LIFT FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER SHW SOUTHERN PLAINS ARRIVES. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING ANYTHING
THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES.
30
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
THOUGH WEAKENING NOW...QLCS SEEMS TO BE HOLDING SOME CONTINUITY
WITH THE 30-40 KT OUTFLOW HOLDING CLOSE IN TO THE MAIN
REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT. CHANCES ARE AREAS NORTHEAST OF A COMANCHE-
DFW-COOPER LINE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL DESPITE THE
WEAKENING TRENDS. HAVE RAISED ALL THESE AREAS INTO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL CATEGORIES... THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS 0.5-1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE...BUT SYSTEM
AND IT/S ASSOCIATION MCV TO THE NORTH IN E-CENTRAL OK ARE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE. DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINS TO PERSIST OVER ANY
PARTICULAR POINT FOR A ANY LENGTH OF TIME. OTHERWISE...JUST
TWEAKED OTHER PARAMETERS OF FORECAST. IF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS
LONGER THROUGH THE MORNING THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED LATER THIS
MORNING.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
A COUPLE OF BUSY DAYS AHEAD WITH STORM CHANCES. CURRENT QLCS NOW
ABOUT TO ENTER FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF OUR CWA. MUCAPE VALUES
1000-1500 J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 25-30 KTS
FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH NORTHWEST OF A CISCO-MINERAL WELLS-GAINESVILLE LINE. THE
QLCS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE AS A 30-35 KT LLJ WEAKENS
AND VEERS AND ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. STILL
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WEST-THROUGH NORTH OF THE DFW METRO THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THROW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AND MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING/SOUTHERN MONTANA. HAVE
RAISED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH FOR THE
CURRENT QLCS...DESPITE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. DID RAISE
THESE SAME SAME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY PER TECH/ARW WRF AND HRRR MODEL INDICATIONS THAT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CAPPING
VERSION WILL HAVE LIKELY BEEN WEAKENED BY THIS MORNING/S QLCS TO
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL. THERE ARE PLENTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL (CAP/
MOISTURE) AND MESOSCALE (OUTFLOW/STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER) PLAYERS INVOLVED TODAY TO MAKE THIS FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY THAT DO POP UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DOWNBURST WINDS
AND SOME SMALLER HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. IN SIMILAR FASHION AS SEEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...
STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER QLCS AS 35-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT. BULK OF THE STORMS WILL
CONGEAL ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...THUS THE COMPLEX FORECAST REGARDING POPS AND
TIMING. FEELING RIGHT NOW IS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 380 AND THE RED
RIVER...AND ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE BEST BETS
FOR STORMS THIS EVENING. MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TO ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL THE OF THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS. WITH THE STRONG LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS...MUCH OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION OUTSIDE OF OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
BE LIFTED AND ERODED. LOOK FOR 60-80% COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF...WITH MORE ISOLATED-SCATTERED ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST
HALF WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO ERODE THE CAP AND WILL BE AWAITING
THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MONDAY ACTIVITY AS ANOTHER
WEAKENING TREND OCCURS AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE PER THE SAME REASONS
MENTIONED EARLIER FOR THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR EASTERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREAS...AS LIFT FROM THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ERODE ANY REMAINING CAPPING INVERSION LEFT WITHIN OUR
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. VERY GUSTY WINDS...SMALLER HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE THE FRONT
AND STORMS...WE DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL TO EXCEED 1-2 INCHES AND DO
NOT PLAN ON ANY HYDROLOGICAL WATCHES AT THIS TIME FOR THE CWA. BEING
IN A DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS HOPED THE RAIN COMES DOWN
STEADILY ENOUGH NOT TO RUN OFF AND ACTUALLY BENEFIT THE AREA LAKES
TO SOME DEGREE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE ADVANCING AND CLEAR THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE
UPPER HIGH THAT HAD REGRESSED BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
RETURN THE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK. LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE LEFT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LIKELY WEAKENING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 86 70 86 67 90 / 50 80 50 20 10
WACO, TX 90 73 89 69 92 / 20 30 50 30 10
PARIS, TX 85 70 83 64 83 / 70 70 60 30 20
DENTON, TX 85 70 84 64 87 / 90 80 50 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 86 71 83 65 86 / 60 80 60 20 10
DALLAS, TX 87 72 86 68 88 / 40 70 50 20 10
TERRELL, TX 88 73 87 66 89 / 20 50 60 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 90 72 87 68 88 / 20 30 50 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 89 69 91 / 20 20 50 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 86 69 86 63 89 / 80 80 30 20 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
655 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Updated morning POPS for convective trends.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Increased rain chances to categorical this morning in the Big
Country and likely farther south in the Concho Valley. Storm complex
will dissipate or move east mid morning, but isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely redevelop this
afternoon with the suns heating.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN Jun 8 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
The remnants of the thunderstorm complex were moving east through
the Big County and Concho Valley at 1130Z. Thunder with MVFR CIGS
likely at KABI through mid morning. A brief thunderstorm may also
affect KSJT. Light showers likely across the rest of the TAF sites
this morning. Stratus with MVFR CIGS expected to rise to VFR by late
morning, but returning late tonight. Isolated thunderstorms possible
this afternoon. Best chance will be at KABI, where a VCTS was added
mid afternoon. A second complex of storm is expected late tonight,
mainly affecting KABI, KSJT, and KBBD after 8Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Large MCS in the South Plains, just west and north of the Big Country
at 2 AM, will spread eastward across the Big Country this morning.
The HRRR model seems to be handling this mesoscale convective
complex the best, pushing the leading edge of storms, east of
Abilene at 7 AM this morning. It also sends a thunderstorm outflow
boundary southward to San Angelo to Brownwood around noon. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to redevelop late morning and afternoon in
the Big Country, with isolated storms farther southward in the
Concho Valley and to Brownwood. GFS SB CAPES of 1300 to 1800 J/KG
and 0-6 KM Bulk Shears indicate the potential for severe
thunderstorms. A tornado also possible, but large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats.
Tonight, isolated diurnal thunderstorms may stay around during the
evening, with another large MCS moving in from the South Plains, as
a weak cold front approaches the region. The Big Country will again
see the best chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, with
decreasing chances south.
04
LONG TERM...
(Monday and Monday Night)
A weak cold front will move south across West Central Texas and
extend rain chances into Monday night. The severe weather threat
looks low for Monday and Monday night; however, there remains a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of a
line from Sonora, to Eden, to Brownwood. The primary threats are
large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning.
Otherwise, models continue in good agreement with the timing of
Monday`s front; the GFS is slightly slower than the NAM. By Monday
afternoon, most of West Central Texas should have northerly surface
winds. The GFS is more aggressive with QPF than the NAM for Monday,
and it brings a convective complex south across West Central Texas
with the front. A compromise between these two models looks best for
Monday PoPs, with the greatest rain chances mainly along and east of
a Sweetwater, to San Angelo, to Junction line. Highs on Monday close
to MOS guidance look best, with numbers at Abilene and San Angelo
slightly below seasonal normals. For Monday night, the GFS indicates
showers and thunderstorms may linger along and near where the front
will stall; however, confidence for where the front may stall isn`t
very high. Thus, 20 PoPs across a broad area of West Central Texas
looks best for Monday night. Lows Monday night close to MOS guidance
also looks reasonable.
(Tuesday through Saturday)
The remainder of the Long Term looks dry, with temperatures
gradually warming through the end of this week and into the start of
next weekend. By late week, a broad upper ridge builds over the
southwestern CONUS; nevertheless, northwest flow aloft over much of
Texas would be favorable for nocturnal MCS scenarios.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 87 66 85 63 89 / 60 60 30 20 5
San Angelo 91 68 88 65 92 / 30 40 20 20 5
Junction 91 73 89 67 92 / 20 20 20 20 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
630 AM CDT SUN Jun 8 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
The remnants of the thunderstorm complex were moving east through
the Big County and Concho Valley at 1130Z. Thunder with MVFR CIGS
likely at KABI through mid morning. A brief thunderstorm may also
affect KSJT. Light showers likely across the rest of the TAF sites
this morning. Stratus with MVFR CIGS expected to rise to VFR by late
morning, but returning late tonight. Isolated thunderstorms possible
this afternoon. Best chance will be at KABI, where a VCTS was added
mid afternoon. A second complex of storm is expected late tonight,
mainly affecting KABI, KSJT, and KBBD after 8Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Large MCS in the South Plains, just west and north of the Big Country
at 2 AM, will spread eastward across the Big Country this morning.
The HRRR model seems to be handling this mesoscale convective
complex the best, pushing the leading edge of storms, east of
Abilene at 7 AM this morning. It also sends a thunderstorm outflow
boundary southward to San Angelo to Brownwood around noon. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to redevelop late morning and afternoon in
the Big Country, with isolated storms farther southward in the
Concho Valley and to Brownwood. GFS SB CAPES of 1300 to 1800 J/KG
and 0-6 KM Bulk Shears indicate the potential for severe
thunderstorms. A tornado also possible, but large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats.
Tonight, isolated diurnal thunderstorms may stay around during the
evening, with another large MCS moving in from the South Plains, as
a weak cold front approaches the region. The Big Country will again
see the best chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, with
decreasing chances south.
04
LONG TERM...
(Monday and Monday Night)
A weak cold front will move south across West Central Texas and
extend rain chances into Monday night. The severe weather threat
looks low for Monday and Monday night; however, there remains a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of a
line from Sonora, to Eden, to Brownwood. The primary threats are
large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning.
Otherwise, models continue in good agreement with the timing of
Monday`s front; the GFS is slightly slower than the NAM. By Monday
afternoon, most of West Central Texas should have northerly surface
winds. The GFS is more aggressive with QPF than the NAM for Monday,
and it brings a convective complex south across West Central Texas
with the front. A compromise between these two models looks best for
Monday PoPs, with the greatest rain chances mainly along and east of
a Sweetwater, to San Angelo, to Junction line. Highs on Monday close
to MOS guidance look best, with numbers at Abilene and San Angelo
slightly below seasonal normals. For Monday night, the GFS indicates
showers and thunderstorms may linger along and near where the front
will stall; however, confidence for where the front may stall isn`t
very high. Thus, 20 PoPs across a broad area of West Central Texas
looks best for Monday night. Lows Monday night close to MOS guidance
also looks reasonable.
(Tuesday through Saturday)
The remainder of the Long Term looks dry, with temperatures
gradually warming through the end of this week and into the start of
next weekend. By late week, a broad upper ridge builds over the
southwestern CONUS; nevertheless, northwest flow aloft over much of
Texas would be favorable for nocturnal MCS scenarios.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 87 66 85 63 89 / 60 60 30 20 5
San Angelo 91 68 88 65 92 / 30 40 20 20 5
Junction 91 73 89 67 92 / 20 20 20 20 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
554 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
THOUGH WEAKENING NOW...QLCS SEEMS TO BE HOLDING SOME CONTINUITY
WITH THE 30-40 KT OUTFLOW HOLDING CLOSE IN TO THE MAIN REFLECTIVITY
GRADIENT. CHANCES ARE AREAS NORTHEAST OF A COMANCHE- DFW-COOPER
LINE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL DESPITE THE WEAKENING TRENDS.
HAVE RAISED ALL THESE AREAS INTO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
CATEGORIES... THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS 0.5-1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE...BUT SYSTEM
AND IT/S ASSOCIATION MCV TO THE NORTH IN E-CENTRAL OK ARE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE. DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINS TO PERSIST OVER ANY
PARTICULAR POINT FOR A ANY LENGTH OF TIME. OTHERWISE...JUST
TWEAKED OTHER PARAMETERS OF FORECAST. IF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS
LONGER THROUGH THE MORNING THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED LATER THIS
MORNING.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 549 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE LINE OF STORMS
APPROACHING THE METROPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
FARTHER EAST IT GETS. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA
TAFS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL TEMPO FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PLACES THE LEADING EDGE IN THE METROPLEX RIGHT
AROUND 12Z...SO WILL LIKELY BEGIN THE FORECAST WITH A PREDOMINANT
-TSRA GROUP. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP THE TEMPO TO 12-14Z AND WILL MAKE
THAT DECISION CLOSE TO TAF ISSUANCE. ENDING THE -TSRA AT 16Z LOOKS
GOOD IN ANTICIPATION OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD DISSIPATING LATER
THIS MORNING.
THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTHWEST OF DFW TRACON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERLY CELL
MOVEMENT WOULD BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS IN AND NEAR
THE DFW AREA BY 09/00Z. A THIRD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LIFT FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER SHW SOUTHERN PLAINS ARRIVES. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING ANYTHING
THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
A COUPLE OF BUSY DAYS AHEAD WITH STORM CHANCES. CURRENT QLCS NOW
ABOUT TO ENTER FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF OUR CWA. MUCAPE VALUES
1000-1500 J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 25-30 KTS
FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH NORTHWEST OF A CISCO-MINERAL WELLS-GAINESVILLE LINE. THE
QLCS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE AS A 30-35 KT LLJ WEAKENS
AND VEERS AND ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. STILL
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WEST-THROUGH NORTH OF THE DFW METRO THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THROW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AND MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING/SOUTHERN MONTANA. HAVE
RAISED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH FOR THE
CURRENT QLCS...DESPITE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. DID RAISE
THESE SAME SAME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY PER TECH/ARW WRF AND HRRR MODEL INDICATIONS THAT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CAPPING
VERSION WILL HAVE LIKELY BEEN WEAKENED BY THIS MORNING/S QLCS TO
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL. THERE ARE PLENTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL (CAP/
MOISTURE) AND MESOSCALE (OUTFLOW/STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER) PLAYERS INVOLVED TODAY TO MAKE THIS FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY THAT DO POP UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DOWNBURST WINDS
AND SOME SMALLER HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. IN SIMILAR FASHION AS SEEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...
STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER QLCS AS 35-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT. BULK OF THE STORMS WILL
CONGEAL ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...THUS THE COMPLEX FORECAST REGARDING POPS AND
TIMING. FEELING RIGHT NOW IS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 380 AND THE RED
RIVER...AND ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE BEST BETS
FOR STORMS THIS EVENING. MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TO ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL THE OF THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS. WITH THE STRONG LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS...MUCH OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION OUTSIDE OF OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
BE LIFTED AND ERODED. LOOK FOR 60-80% COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF...WITH MORE ISOLATED-SCATTERED ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST
HALF WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO ERODE THE CAP AND WILL BE AWAITING
THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MONDAY ACTIVITY AS ANOTHER
WEAKENING TREND OCCURS AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE PER THE SAME REASONS
MENTIONED EARLIER FOR THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR EASTERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREAS...AS LIFT FROM THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ERODE ANY REMAINING CAPPING INVERSION LEFT WITHIN OUR
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. VERY GUSTY WINDS...SMALLER HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE THE FRONT
AND STORMS...WE DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL TO EXCEED 1-2 INCHES AND DO
NOT PLAN ON ANY HYDROLOGICAL WATCHES AT THIS TIME FOR THE CWA. BEING
IN A DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS HOPED THE RAIN COMES DOWN
STEADILY ENOUGH NOT TO RUN OFF AND ACTUALLY BENEFIT THE AREA LAKES
TO SOME DEGREE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE ADVANCING AND CLEAR THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE
UPPER HIGH THAT HAD REGRESSED BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
RETURN THE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK. LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE LEFT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LIKELY WEAKENING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 70 86 67 90 / 80 80 50 20 10
WACO, TX 91 73 89 69 92 / 20 30 50 30 10
PARIS, TX 85 70 83 64 83 / 80 70 60 30 20
DENTON, TX 88 70 84 64 87 / 90 80 50 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 88 71 83 65 86 / 80 80 60 20 10
DALLAS, TX 90 72 86 68 88 / 70 70 50 20 10
TERRELL, TX 90 73 87 66 89 / 40 50 60 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 89 72 87 68 88 / 10 30 50 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 89 69 91 / 20 20 50 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 69 86 63 89 / 70 80 30 20 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
549 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.AVIATION...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE LINE OF STORMS
APPROACHING THE METROPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
FARTHER EAST IT GETS. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA
TAFS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL TEMPO FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PLACES THE LEADING EDGE IN THE METROPLEX RIGHT
AROUND 12Z...SO WILL LIKELY BEGIN THE FORECAST WITH A PREDOMINANT
-TSRA GROUP. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP THE TEMPO TO 12-14Z AND WILL MAKE
THAT DECISION CLOSE TO TAF ISSUANCE. ENDING THE -TSRA AT 16Z LOOKS
GOOD IN ANTICIPATION OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD DISSIPATING LATER
THIS MORNING.
THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTHWEST OF DFW TRACON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EASTERLY CELL
MOVEMENT WOULD BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS IN AND NEAR
THE DFW AREA BY 09/00Z. A THIRD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LIFT FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER SHW SOUTHERN PLAINS ARRIVES. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING ANYTHING
THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
A COUPLE OF BUSY DAYS AHEAD WITH STORM CHANCES. CURRENT QLCS NOW
ABOUT TO ENTER FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF OUR CWA. MUCAPE VALUES
1000-1500 J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 25-30 KTS
FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH NORTHWEST OF A CISCO-MINERAL WELLS-GAINESVILLE LINE. THE
QLCS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE AS A 30-35 KT LLJ WEAKENS
AND VEERS AND ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. STILL
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WEST-THROUGH NORTH OF THE DFW METRO THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THROW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AND MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING/SOUTHERN MONTANA. HAVE
RAISED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH FOR THE
CURRENT QLCS...DESPITE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. DID RAISE
THESE SAME SAME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY PER TECH/ARW WRF AND HRRR MODEL INDICATIONS THAT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CAPPING
VERSION WILL HAVE LIKELY BEEN WEAKENED BY THIS MORNING/S QLCS TO
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL. THERE ARE PLENTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL (CAP/
MOISTURE) AND MESOSCALE (OUTFLOW/STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER) PLAYERS INVOLVED TODAY TO MAKE THIS FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY THAT DO POP UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DOWNBURST WINDS
AND SOME SMALLER HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. IN SIMILAR FASHION AS SEEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...
STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER QLCS AS 35-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT. BULK OF THE STORMS WILL
CONGEAL ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...THUS THE COMPLEX FORECAST REGARDING POPS AND
TIMING. FEELING RIGHT NOW IS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 380 AND THE RED
RIVER...AND ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE BEST BETS
FOR STORMS THIS EVENING. MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TO ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL THE OF THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS. WITH THE STRONG LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS...MUCH OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION OUTSIDE OF OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
BE LIFTED AND ERODED. LOOK FOR 60-80% COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF...WITH MORE ISOLATED-SCATTERED ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST
HALF WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO ERODE THE CAP AND WILL BE AWAITING
THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MONDAY ACTIVITY AS ANOTHER
WEAKENING TREND OCCURS AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE PER THE SAME REASONS
MENTIONED EARLIER FOR THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR EASTERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREAS...AS LIFT FROM THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ERODE ANY REMAINING CAPPING INVERSION LEFT WITHIN OUR
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. VERY GUSTY WINDS...SMALLER HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE THE FRONT
AND STORMS...WE DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL TO EXCEED 1-2 INCHES AND DO
NOT PLAN ON ANY HYDROLOGICAL WATCHES AT THIS TIME FOR THE CWA. BEING
IN A DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS HOPED THE RAIN COMES DOWN
STEADILY ENOUGH NOT TO RUN OFF AND ACTUALLY BENEFIT THE AREA LAKES
TO SOME DEGREE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE ADVANCING AND CLEAR THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE
UPPER HIGH THAT HAD REGRESSED BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
RETURN THE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK. LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE LEFT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LIKELY WEAKENING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 70 86 67 90 / 50 80 50 20 10
WACO, TX 91 73 89 69 92 / 20 30 50 30 10
PARIS, TX 85 70 83 64 83 / 60 70 60 30 20
DENTON, TX 88 70 84 64 87 / 70 80 50 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 88 71 83 65 86 / 50 80 60 20 10
DALLAS, TX 90 72 86 68 88 / 40 70 50 20 10
TERRELL, TX 90 73 87 66 89 / 20 50 60 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 89 72 87 68 88 / 10 30 50 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 89 69 91 / 20 20 50 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 69 86 63 89 / 60 80 30 20 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
652 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THIS
TROUGHING...THE MOST NOTABLE SHORTWAVES INCLUDE ONE NEAR CHICAGO...
ANOTHER IN IDAHO AND A THIRD OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA. THE SHORTWAVE
NEAR CHICAGO HELPED BRING SOME OF THE RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY...WHICH HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL DEALING
WITH COLD FRONTAL INVERSION STRATUS AS SEEN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND 11-3.9UM IMAGERY. THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING HAVING A 925MB TEMP OF
10C COMPARED TO 17C AT DVN AND GRB REFLECTS THE COLD FRONT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEEN CLEARING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS DRIER AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z INL AND ABR SOUNDINGS ADVECTS
SOUTH. BOTH SOUNDINGS WERE WARMER AT 925MB AS WELL...AROUND 15C.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALSO ACCOMPANIED THE CLEARING. SOME
FOG HAS FORMED WITHIN THE CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
WISCOSNIN.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO THE IDAHO SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING AS IT REACHES WESTERN KS BY 12Z
MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GRAND FORKS ND AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY
INTO THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...LEAVING PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME MORNING FOG DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOSTLY
PRIOR TO 13Z...OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 16C AT 00Z SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A 100-120 KT UPPER JET STREAK TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GRAND FORKS AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
CIRCULATION IS INDICATED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA...LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
JET STREAK. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE 07.12Z ECMWF AND 08.00Z NAM WANT
TO SPREAD THE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST...COMPARED TO THE 08.00Z GFS/REGIONAL
CANADIAN. THE FARTHER EAST MODELS SUGGEST 60-70 PERCENT CHANCES
WOULD BE WARRANTED WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS WOULD
BE DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH 30-40
PERCENT CHANCES. EITHER SCENARIO SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...
WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING IN WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD
BE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. STAYED WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR LOWS...THOUGH DID LEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF WI GIVEN LONGER PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED
THERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SIMILAR TO THE TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SHORTWAVE OVER GRAND FORKS AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
PUSH THE UPPER JET STREAK EASTWARD...SO EVENTUALLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE FRONTOGENTICAL
CIRCULATION. ONCE THAT OCCURS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO
FALL APART...WHICH THE 08.00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN ALL SHOW
OCCURRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST IS THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. HERE THE NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE
ECMWF ARE THE MOST BULLISH AND FARTHEST EAST...WHEREAS THE REGIONAL
CANADIAN/GFS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT SOME LOWER 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THE NORTHWEST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 2 SCENARIOS WHICH SUPPORTS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES.
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE VICINITY OF DODGE COUNTY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION FOR THE FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM KS AND OK ON
MONDAY TO THE CHICAGO AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL FIGHT DRY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY DRY.
THAT GOOD AGREEMENT FALLS APART FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHERE
THE 08.00Z GFS WANTS TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS THE 08.00Z NAM/CANADIAN/07.12Z ECMWF
REFLECT A DRY FORECAST. NEW 08.00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MAYBE SLIGHTLY
WETTER...MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST 1/3 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH LEANED DRIER...KEPT THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. DID THROW 20 PERCENT CHANCES A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW ECMWF...
HOWEVER.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST
FORCING FOR THIS TROUGH STAYS TO THE NORTH...BUT DID KEEP SOME
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN A COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD GET RELATIVELY COOL AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 6-8C
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING UNSETTLED AS A
POSITIVELY TITLED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S.. LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. LATER TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE PLAINS...SPREADING MID-LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES AOA 12KFT INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY BE SEEN MONDAY AFTER 12Z...BUT PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
751 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AS LATEST WYDOT WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING PRETTY GOOD
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE I-80 SUMMIT AND AROUND CHEYENNE. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE HAS CAUSED LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. WEBCAMS SHOW DENSE FOG
ALONG INTERSTATE 8O FROM CHEYENNE TO THE SUMMIT AND WITH THE
UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-MORNING...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILL ZONE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CENTRAL LARAMIE
COUNTY SINCE VIS AT CYS HAS DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. SHORTWAVE
SHOWS UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
WY. GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA HOWEVER INTO
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 18Z AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA
BY 00Z. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
THERE IS BY EARLY AFTN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THIS SEEMS
LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP. TSTM
POTENTIAL REALLY DROPS OFF AFTER AROUND 21Z BEHIND THE FROPA. THE
COMBINATION OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE PLAINS AND
ESPECIALLY THE PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTN THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO
RAPIDLY SHUT OFF BY LATE EVENING. IT WILL BE A QUITE COOL NIGHT
UPCOMING AS THE SFC HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST WY. GUIDANCE
HAS LOWS IN LARAMIE AROUND FREEZING SO DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO
CONSIDER A FROST ADVISORY IN THE LARAMIE VALLEY AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE EXCELLENT BY LATE TONIGHT. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS
STILL PROGGED OVER THE REGION BY MON AND INTO TUES WITH PW VALUES
DROPPING TO BELOW 0.5 INCHES. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIM AND DONT
REALLY HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU TUES. MAY EVEN HAVE
TROUBLE GETTING MUCH CUMULUS ON MON (LI VALUES ARE ABOVE 3C).
WHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON MON...THE BIGGER WARMUP IS NOT
UNTIL TUES WHEN 700MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 14C. THIS TRANSLATES
INTO A 20-25 DEGREE WARMUP COMPARED TO THIS WEEKENDS COOL TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN
THE LATE MORNING. WESTERLY SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
THE LLVLS SOMEWHAT DRY SO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY BE TOO STRONG
FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE BETTER UPPER
FORCING MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON...LOOKING AT A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO THE PAC NW. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SO TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER OUT WEST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE EAST WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT
HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO EXPECT A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST UPSLOPE FORCING AND HIGHER
LLVL MOISTURE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN WY/MT. THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS TIME SO LOOKING AT SFC
TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH 700 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 12-14C. EVEN WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEESIDE TROUGH AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS...AND CONTINUED LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT COULD CAP THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LEFT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BUT NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOP. THE
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. SFC FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT
OF HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW T-STORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...BUT CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AND MAY ONLY LIFT TO MVFR HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 20Z. ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FOR MOST AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE T-STORMS ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO IFR
FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING IN WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE...WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS ON MONDAY WILL CAUSE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20-30 PERCENT. MORE WARMING IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT FOR
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO WANE SLOWLY AS MELTING FROM SOURCE SNOW
COVER DIMINISHES. STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE ALONG
THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCATIONS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MINOR FLOODING WILL DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLAYCOMB
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
637 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE HAS CAUSED LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. WEBCAMS SHOW DENSE FOG
ALONG INTERSTATE 8O FROM CHEYENNE TO THE SUMMIT AND WITH THE
UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-MORNING...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILL ZONE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CENTRAL LARAMIE
COUNTY SINCE VIS AT CYS HAS DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE. SHORTWAVE
SHOWS UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
WY. GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA HOWEVER INTO
CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 18Z AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA
BY 00Z. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
THERE IS BY EARLY AFTN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THIS SEEMS
LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP. TSTM
POTENTIAL REALLY DROPS OFF AFTER AROUND 21Z BEHIND THE FROPA. THE
COMBINATION OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE PLAINS AND
ESPECIALLY THE PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTN THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO
RAPIDLY SHUT OFF BY LATE EVENING. IT WILL BE A QUITE COOL NIGHT
UPCOMING AS THE SFC HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST WY. GUIDANCE
HAS LOWS IN LARAMIE AROUND FREEZING SO DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO
CONSIDER A FROST ADVISORY IN THE LARAMIE VALLEY AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE EXCELLENT BY LATE TONIGHT. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS
STILL PROGGED OVER THE REGION BY MON AND INTO TUES WITH PW VALUES
DROPPING TO BELOW 0.5 INCHES. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIM AND DONT
REALLY HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU TUES. MAY EVEN HAVE
TROUBLE GETTING MUCH CUMULUS ON MON (LI VALUES ARE ABOVE 3C).
WHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON MON...THE BIGGER WARMUP IS NOT
UNTIL TUES WHEN 700MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 14C. THIS TRANSLATES
INTO A 20-25 DEGREE WARMUP COMPARED TO THIS WEEKENDS COOL TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN
THE LATE MORNING. WESTERLY SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
THE LLVLS SOMEWHAT DRY SO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY BE TOO STRONG
FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE BETTER UPPER
FORCING MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON...LOOKING AT A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO THE PAC NW. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SO TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER OUT WEST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE EAST WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT
HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO EXPECT A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST UPSLOPE FORCING AND HIGHER
LLVL MOISTURE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN WY/MT. THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS TIME SO LOOKING AT SFC
TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH 700 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 12-14C. EVEN WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEESIDE TROUGH AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS...AND CONTINUED LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT COULD CAP THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LEFT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BUT NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOP. THE
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. SFC FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT
OF HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW T-STORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...BUT CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AND MAY ONLY LIFT TO MVFR HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 20Z. ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FOR MOST AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE T-STORMS ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO IFR
FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING IN WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE...WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS ON MONDAY WILL CAUSE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 20-30 PERCENT. MORE WARMING IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT FOR
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO WANE SLOWLY AS MELTING FROM SOURCE SNOW
COVER DIMINISHES. STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE ALONG
THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCATIONS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MINOR FLOODING WILL DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1105 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WITH A PRETTY PESSIMISTIC FORECAST ALREADY ON THE BOOKS...WILL NOT
BE MAKING ANY CHANGES AT THIS POINT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
MOVING OVER WESTERN COLORADO AT THE PRESENT TIME...KICKING OFF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES ON ITS LEADING
EDGE. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS
THE PLAINS...MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. CLOUD
COVER HAS REDUCED SOLAR HEATING SOMEWHAT UP TO THIS POINT...BUT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING OVER
PARK...TELLER AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES THAT WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
HEATING ON THE PALMER DIVIDE...ENHANCING THERMAL GRADIENTS TO THE
NORTH OF THAT AREA. SPC HAS US IN UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SEEMS WARRENTED DUE TO DYNAMICS ALOFT AND
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THE HRRR AND RUC
MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BACK EDGE TO ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVING OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS AND ONTO THE PLAINS BETWEEN 8 PM AND
10 PM THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY...BUT
UNTIL THEN IT COULD BE A QUITE ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 120 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
11-3.9 SATELLITE LOW CLOUD IMAGERY SHOWING A CLEARING OF THE STRATUS
DECK OVER THE DENVER AREA AND POINTS SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS COUNTY.
GIVEN THE DENVER CYCLONE COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH SECTIONS OF DENVER. DURING THE MORNING HOURS
LOW CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
TROF.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER IDAHO AND NEVADA
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS COLORADO. THIS TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF UPWARD
ASCENT AS NOTED ON QG LAYERED PRODUCTS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INITIATE CONVERGENCE WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
NAM/RAP SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1000-1500J/KG OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. GIVEN MODERATE UPWARD ASCENT COULD BE SOME
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT A TORNADO
AS WELL ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
IT WILL BE DRY...STABLE AND COOLER ON MONDAY...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF COLORADO IN THE MORNING...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL TUESDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
RIDGE AXIS WL GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS MONTANA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS...AS LOW LEVEL
ELY WINDS ADVECT IT INTO THE CWFA. FOR NOW SLGT CHANCE WILL
SUFFICE BUT THIS WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE...ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BUT WILL LEAVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SETTLED OVER NERN CO IN ITS WAKE. A WEAK SYSTEM
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD MOVE ACROSS NRN COLORADO
IN THE AFTN/EVENING PERIOD. AS A RESULT...COULD AGAIN SEE A ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. A DRIER WSWLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OVERALL WL GO WITH SLGT CHANCE OF TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVNG
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER SOME MILD COOLING ON
THURSDAY..TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WILL CARRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA TAFS FROM 19Z THROUGH
ABOUT 02Z. WIND FIELD OVER DENVER AREA IS COMPLICATED WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE AIRPORT AND NORTHWESTERLIES CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS. LOOKS LIKE KDEN SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
UNTIL OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS PUSHES THINGS
MORE TO THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 120 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD SHOW SOME SMALL RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS. STORMS
WILL BE MOVING WITH MODEST STEERING FLOWS. MODEL QPF SHOWING
.25-.50 OF AN INCH OVER FRONT RANGE AND ADJ PLAINS WITH UPWARDS OF
AN INCH OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY CONTINUE TO MODERATE THE
SNOWMELT IN THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO HAVE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT...KEEPING THE RUNOFF IN CHECK. WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...THE SNOWMELT WILL LIKELY AGAIN
INCREASE.
CURRENT ADVISORIES AND THE FLOOD WARNING IN GREELEY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...COOPER/ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS DEVELOPING
OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. SHARP CLEARING UNDERWAY ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH ON BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD FILL
BACK IN A BIT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND QUICK JUMP IN SFC TEMPS.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING NEW CU FIELDS POPPING OVER
THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST UTAH...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SHORTWV TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH DRIVING A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED AT LOWER VALLEY
SENSORS IN EASTERN UTAH...INCLUDING CANYONLANDS AIRPORT NORTH OF
MOAB. THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AT A FEW SITES. HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO FIT THIS
LINE...WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
COOL FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAKES IT AN ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT IS A
SHORT WAVE THAT DESIRES A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION AS IT DIGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE. NOT MUCH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE...BUT A
DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AS HUMIDITY SURGES
HIGHER. AIR MASS BECOMES CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION KEEPING LAPSE RATES STEEP. AFTERNOON
CAPE VALUES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RANGE BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG...WITH THE RAP MODEL SHOWING A POCKET OF 1000+ J/KG FOR NW
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DESERT
VALLEYS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND THEREFORE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
IS HIGH. HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF RECEIVING
SOME RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS GENERATING BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS...MOST LIKELY TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE.
SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE SRN VALLEYS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SPEED SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST REACHES 30-35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL
BE COMMON FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CORTEZ TO DURANGO WITH WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH. THIS IS A COMBINATION OF A DEEP MIXED
LAYER...APPROACHING JET MAXIMA...LOCATION OF FRONT...AND THE
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT THAT CONTRIBUTES TO THE STRONG WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF AN ISOLATED STORM REACHES SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
TONIGHT THE FLOW VEERS FROM NW TO NORTH WHILE MOISTURE QUICKLY
ERODES. EVENING SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE EXPECTED
TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS...AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW AVERAGE. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE THE
LEAST WARM DAY OF THE NEW WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEATING. INCREASED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSHOWERS.
A DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL THREATEN MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS FOR MOST
VALLEYS. ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY JUNE WEATHER REMAINS THE MAIN
THEME. A SHORT WAVE THE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY TO THE
NRN MOUNTAINS, AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
A STRONG DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WILL RESULT
IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MARCH EAST ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DIVIDE AFTER 21Z...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THIS LINE UNTIL 02Z
THIS EVENING. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH WITH SMALL HAIL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED AT TIMES AS THE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AFTER 02Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
UPDATE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES TODAY WITH THE ADDITION
OF ZONE 291 TO THE RED FLAG WARNINGS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER A WEEK OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WARRANT THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS TODAY...COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.
THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING AND PASSING VIRGA/SHOWERS WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THIS WARM REGIME AND DRY FUELS WILL PRODUCE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR COLORADO ZONE 207 BELOW 9500 FEET AND FOR
COLORADO ZONE 203 BELOW 6000 FEET.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY. RIDGING WILL BRING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE MORE WIND AND DRY
LIGHTNING THAN RAIN AND THUS MAY BE A ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014
RIVER AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS THE MOUNTAIN
SNOWPACK MELTS UNDER PERSISTENT WARM TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST
FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON BASIN
IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. AS A RESULT...A NUMBER OF FLOOD ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO
...AND NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ203-207-291.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ021-022.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...JOE/TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
131 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.AVIATION...CONCERN IS NEAR TERM TSTORM IMPACTS. KFLL WAS
IMPACTED EARLIER, NOW IN LINE IS KMIA AND KTMB WITH DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED THERE NEXT 1-2 HR. IFR POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
/GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTEND EAST
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE 500 MB
TEMPS TO WARM UP FROM -9.5C THIS MORNING TO -7.5C THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PWAT VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 1.7
TO 1.8 INCH RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. SO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STORMS WILL BE MORE OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME POPCORN TYPE.
THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL COLLIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER THE METRO AREAS.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. SO WILL SHOW A 20 TO 30 POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS FOR THIS EVENING WITH THE METRO AREAS REMAINING
DRY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...THOUGH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY INDUCE BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS...PARTICULARLY AT MORE INLAND TERMINALS /MIA/TMB/FXE.
INITATION TIME IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 18Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH...SO VCTS SUFFICES FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN SE BY NOON
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. LIGHT/CALM WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED TO THE WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SET UP AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AIDING IN MAINTAINING A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED SOUTH FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST. RADAR
INDICATED 40-50 KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES BUT THE ONLY OBSERVATION THAT
SHOWED THIS WAS THE NORTHERN TOWER ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A 39 KNOT
GUST JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THIS CLUSTER IS NOW WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING AN EARLY START TO THE ACTIVITY AT AROUND 15-16Z.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL
ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS
500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -8 TO -9C RANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE WET
BULB ZERO AT JUST OVER 12K. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE
FOR HAIL BUT THERE WERE REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE SO WILL PLACE THIS IN THE HWO. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WILL THE SURFACE RIDGE SO NOT
MANY CHANGES SEEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGES TAKE PLACE WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE GFS HAS FINALLY BACKED OFF IN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR AT LEAST HAS DELAYED IT UNTIL BEYOND THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. IT IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
SHOWING. THAT IS KEEPING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MARINE...
A LIGHT WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2
FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO SEAS COULD
BE LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 88 76 87 / 10 40 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 87 76 88 / 10 40 30 50
MIAMI 76 87 76 88 / 10 40 30 50
NAPLES 75 88 75 88 / 10 40 10 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
320 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
Some slight pre-issuance adjustments were made to parts of Ripley
and Butler County Missouri with respect to precipitation chances
late this afternoon. Regional NWS radar mosaic showing 20+ dbZ
echoes encroaching toward the WFO PAH CWA around 20z. Although
there is still some dry air advection going on near the surface,
an accelerated downward saturation of the layer north of the
warm frontal boundary southwest of the forecast area should
support at least isolated rain/sprinkles before the end of the
first period (today). The 12z deterministic 12km NAM-WRF/40km GFS
are about 40-60 nautical miles too far southwest with this
convection, while the explicit 3km HRRR is about 20-30 nautical
miles further northeast with the 1km reflectivity than observed by
radar. Ironically, the 09z/15z SREF appears to be a good
compromise and was utilized for the last minute updates.
As the MCV/ mesoscale closed low shears out as it moves northeast
overnight, low level ageostrophic forcing will bring moist flow
back into the area, while impressing a differential convergence
zone and inverted trough at the surface. These features will be
loosely in place when the larger player (the eastern Colorado
closed low) moves into western Kansas and dives into northeast
Oklahoma early Monday evening. The approach of this low will
sharpen lapse rates both at the surface and aloft, as well as
enhance moisture convergence, setting a warm front across the
southern third of the WFO PAH forecast area. SPC is hinting that
this differential zone may be the foci for scattered strong to
severe storms during the late afternoon and evening. This is
definitely a possibility.
Although there is some similarities with this closed low to the
one that moved north of the WFO PAH forecast area on Saturday,
this next low will be a little slower moving with wind fields more
unidirectional with height. However the compensating factor may be
a sharp gradient of moisture/lapse rates along the eastern limb of
the closed low. This may yield some strong/severe thunderstorms,
mainly in the eastern sections of the WFO PAH CWA (mainly
West Kentucky Pennyrile/Southwest IN). The overall concern will be
heavy rain potential on Tuesday. Fortunately, the greatest storm
total QPF (rainfall) will likely be centered over western sections
of Southeast Missouri, where lesser amounts of antecedent rainfall
have occurred the last five days. However, the potential for
flooding will must be concerned given the terrain of Southeast Missouri.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
In the extended portion of the forecast package, the ECMWF (and to
a degree) the GFS, follow the translation of the upper low
northeast of the area into the Great Lakes region by 12z Thursday.
Minor disturbances push in the northwest flow behind this upper
low until the ridge builds in at low and middle levels Friday
night. This will keep minor chances for showers and thunderstorms
in place at least through the daytime hours on Friday. It looks
like we may see at least one day break in the convection on
Saturday before a return to southwest flow occurs late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
For the 18z Sunday TAF issuance attempted to the lower end
(cumulus) and upper end (Cirrus) ceilings with the departing
surface low to the northeast of KEVV/KOWB and the slowly
approaching low/warm front toward the KCGI/KPAH TAF sites.
Utilized the NAM-WRF cross-sections, spatially adjusted, to
reflect the approach of MVFR visibilities and ceilings to KCGI and
KPAH after midnight. The impact of the approaching frontal
boundary to KCGI/KPAH will have a greater impact on maintaining
MVFR ceilings and visibilities versus KEVV/KOWB. The latter two
TAF sites should remain in VFR conditions through the entire
forecast period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
132 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
PRETTY NO SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SO
FAR THIS MORNING. IN FACT...BASED ON RADAR DATA FROM THE PAST FEW
HOURS THERE MAY ONLY HAVE A BEEN A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS FORM OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT PRODUCED EVEN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION ON THE
GROUND. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING STRONGER AND STRONGER
CAPPING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY TO MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE WITH NO CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT ALL
CONSIDERING THE CAPPING SHOWING UP IN THE SOUNDINGS. ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER TOWARD THIS MORNINGS OBS AND CARRIED THAT TREND OUT THROUGH 0Z
TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. UPDATED ZONES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST IS CREATING SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
HAVE EVEN PICKED UP ON A LITTLE CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING FROM TIME TO
TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT
10 MPH OR SO BEHIND A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. WINDS
MAY GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES. ALSO...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING SOME LIGHT FOG FROM
STRATUS BUILD DOWN LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT
FOG IN THE UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
IN GENERAL LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE PESSIMISTIC WHEN
COMPARED TO REALITY...AND IT APPEARS THESE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
CURRENT SITUATION WELL. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN...CURRENTLY
PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA...IS FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS HAD
ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. AS A RESULT EASTERN KENTUCKY IS RESTING
RELATIVELY QUIETLY BETWEEN A STORM COMPLEX DRIVING THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS CORRESPONDING CONVECTION RIDING NORTHWEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOWS LIMITED
ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WHILE THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FIRED ACROSS PORTIONS
FORECAST AREA...OVERALL RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN HARD TO IGNORE.
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MISS MUCH OF OUR CWA. IN ADDITION
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED AS WELL THOUGH SPC STILL HAS A COUPLE COUNTIES IN OUR
EXTREME EAST IN A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO RIDE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
GENERAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
VERY CLOSE TO NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF LOW
WILL START OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BEING PULLED INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE RESIDUAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL GO
WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS SINCE TIMING ANY GIVEN
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. IN
GENERAL...POP CHANCES LOOK TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST OVERALL FORCING AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HOW
QUICKLY RIDGING RETURNS. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE
TROUGH INFLUENCE AND KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE TAF SITES LIKELY
WILL SO DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...SJS COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN
THAT IS NOT LOOKING VERY PROMISING AT THE MOMENT. WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...AND
CONSIDERING THE UTTER LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE TAF SITES COULD SEE BREIF PERIODS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
FOG AND CIGS...BUT THE FOG FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A LACK
OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AND WILL AMEND THE TAFS AS NECESSARY SHOULD THE
FOG LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
310 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RDGS OVER THE W AND ALONG THE E COAST. SFC HI
PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS UNDER A WEAK SHRTWV RDG ROTATING E THRU
THE TROF AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS /PWAT
ARND 0.35 INCH...ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ ARE BRINGING MOSUNNY
CONDITIONS TO THE CWA THIS AFTN. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LO 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK MODERATION. THERE ARE 2
SHRTWVS OF INTEREST UPSTREAM EMBEDDED IN THE UPR TROF. THE FIRST IS
MOVING E NEAR LK WINNIPEG...AND THE OTHER IS DIGGING SEWD THRU
SASKATCHEWAN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS ON MON ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE NOW IN
SASKATCHEWAN.
TNGT...SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG AND ACCOMPANYING DEEPER MSTR ARE
PROGGED TO MOVE E THRU ONTARIO N OF LK SUP TNGT...WITH LTL IMPACT ON
UPR MI. SFC HI PRES RDG IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE UPR LKS TO THE
S OF THIS PASSING SHRTWV. BUT SOME HI CLDS/A BIT HIER PWAT OVER 0.5
INCH NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE WLY
FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E...WHERE
THE DEEP DRIER AIR WL LINGER LONGER.
MON...SHRTWV NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO SWING ESEWD THRU
THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW LTL
RESPONSE IN THE MSLP FIELD OVE THE AREA...WITH SFC HI PRES RDG STILL
DOMINATING...THERE WL BE LTL IF ANY MSTR INFLOW FOR THIS DISTURBANCE
TO TAP. CONSIDERING THE ABSENCE OF MSTR INFLOW...WEAK DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC...MINIMAL HGT FALLS...AND MARGINAL MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...MOST OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS GENERATE LTL IF ANY PCPN
ACRS UPR MI...MAINLY ACRS THE WRN CWA WHERE FCST SDNGS SHOW MORE
MOISTENING AND KINX RISING TO 25 TO 30. FCST SNDGS FARTHER E SHOW A
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS PERSISTING THRU THE DAY WITH ONLY SOME
MID/HI CLDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE. GOING FCST SHOWING SCHC
POPS OVER THE WRN CWA APPEARS ON TRACK. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT
ARND 9C AND SOME CLDS...MAX TEMPS NOT FAR FM 70 SEEM RSNBL. WEAK
PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW LK BREEZES TO FORM AND LOWER TEMPS NEAR THE
LK SHORES. THE MOST PRONOUNCED LK COOLING WL COME OFF LK MI WITH LGT
SE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE HIEST TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
E...WHERE THE CLDS WL BE THINNER AND LLVL ESE FLOW WL LACK LAKE
MODERATION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND
SFC SFC RIDGE SIT OVER THE CWA. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP COME WED
INTO THU NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS GETS SHEARED APART AND MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER ON WED WHEN LOOKING AT CONSENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT AFTER WED MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARD TO THE
STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF THE TWO FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN
WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ON OR AROUND
THU/THU NIGHT THAN WITH THE SHEARED OFF LOW MOVING TO THE SE OF THE
CWA WED/WED NIGHT. CUT BACK SOME ON POPS ON WED. THINK THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT/THU COVERED THIS SCENARIO WELL...SO WILL NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO IT.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST OF FRI AND SAT WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. SUN WILL SEE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS MODEL INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH A SFC LOW MOVING N OF THE CWA WHILE DRAGGING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
A HI PRES RDG AND LLVL DRY AIR WL DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AND
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH A
DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FM THE W MAY BRING SOME MID/HI CLDS TO THE AREA
ON MON AND PERHAPS A SHOWER TO IWD...THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
LOWER CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WL DOMINATE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER THRU FRI. BEST CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 20 KTS WILL
BE LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SHARPER GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
303 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK, SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT, AND TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK, WITH SHOWERS AND
THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY. WE
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
245 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER, CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
NORTHEAST AND IS NOW INTO WESTERN NY AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN OHIO
THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS (THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT ARE RUNNING 25 TO 30 DEGREES RIGHT NOW), HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP AND INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS WELL IN
LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
THAN THE ARW OR THE NMM. I LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER`S IDEA OF
SHOWING THE HIGHEST POPS STILL IN THE FINGER LAKES BUT I DID BUMP
UP POPS INTO THE 80%+ RANGE HERE GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 0Z IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY ALONG OR WEST OF I-81
AFFAIR. AFTER 0Z AS OUR COLUMN MOISTENS, RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST SLOWLY AND AT SOME POINT, MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
RAIN TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR THE MORE APPRECIABLE RAINS WILL BE IN
THE FINGER LAKES, WITH A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN AMOUNTS THE
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST YOU LIVE FROM THIS LOCATION. AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM LATE EVENING ON AS PWATS
CLIMB FROM UNDER AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES. WE CAN CERTAINLY HANDLE
THIS RAIN IN MOST CASES AS WE HAVE BEEN VERY DRY LATELY. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE CATSKILLS, BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. I LEFT IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER (ISOLATED)
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST PA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GENERAL WEAKNESS EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS CHANCES AROUND ESPECIALLY FOR NEPA
AND THE CATSKILLS, WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL NY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD IS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE, TO VARYING DEGREES, SHOW
THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. WHILE NO MAJOR TRIGGERS ARE
NEARBY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR
AROUND AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
US. THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMING LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE DAY AS A CUT OFF LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND
WE GET CLOSER TO SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STILL IT APPEARS THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN, BEYOND TONIGHT, MAY BE AT THE TAIL END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTS THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM. WV
CURRENTLY TRACKING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WL EVENTUALLY CLOSE
OFF OVR THE SRN PLAINS WITH SW FLOW OVER US. THIS WL SHOOT S/WVS
OVR THE CWA AT RANDOM LEADING TO MOSTLY HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITH THE MOST LKLY TIME FOR PCPN TO FALL DRG DIURNAL HTG.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE FRI NGT WITH BEST CHC FOR TSTMS EXPECTED
FRI AFTN.
SFC HIPRES LOOKS AS THO IT WL BUILD IN SAT MRNG WITH ANOTHER NICE
WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE ON TAP WITH 585 HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO AREA.
TEMPS DRG THE EXTNDD WL BE IN THE 70S AND NR 80F WHICH IS A FEW
DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AND EXPECT BROKEN
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD 00Z TONIGHT. LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED
INTO WESTERN PA AND NY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST BUT ERODING AS THEY DO. THUS HAVE JUST TEMPO`D IN MVFR
SHOWERS AT ELM BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z AND THEN BECOMING PREDOMINANT
AFTER 01Z. SEE SPECIFIC TAF FORECASTS FOR TIMING FOR EACH
TERMINAL. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY TSRA AS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS SHOWERS HEAD EAST. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO NARROW
DOWN TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSRA FOR THIS EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY AS WAVE WEAKENS. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS
THOUGH IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT NORTHERN
SITES OF RME AND SYR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z MONDAY.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ESE FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON AFTN-THU...VFR MOST OF THE TIME...BUT SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE FROM SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS.
THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN FOR
MONDAY. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND NORTH OF CHICAGO ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP TIMING BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO EMPLOYED HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION
HOURLY TEMPS TO MANAGE AFTERNOON FLUCTUATIONS CAUSED BY ONSHORE
FLOW/RAIN COOLED AIR/INCREASING SUN WEST.
FULL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PRETTY WELL DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW SHOULD TRAVEL EAST...PROBABLY JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WHICH PUTS THE OVERRUNNING SYNOPTIC TYPE RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY AND STABLE BUT
WITH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT INCLUDING A COUPLED JET...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION TO MOISTEN UP THE LOW LAYERS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. NOT SURE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER. WILL INCLUDE
THUNDER SOUTH...FROM ABOUT ROUTE 30 SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE TRIPLE
POINT...AND ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE IT WILL GET A LITTLE
MORE UNSTABLE. THERE IS DECENT SHEAR BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE IN OR NEAR THE WARM SECTOR...PROBABLY FROM
AROUND PITTSBURGH SOUTH. WILL JUST MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDER
FROM AROUND TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW DEGREES WITH THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AND
WITH THE DEVELOPING ENE SURFACE FLOW IT MAY NOT RECOVER MUCH EXCEPT
ACROSS NW OHIO WHERE THE RAIN WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
BARELY TO 70 WHERE IT STAYS THE CLOUDIEST AND THE RAIN LINGERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TROUGHINESS LINGERS ALOFT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND PA ON
MONDAY AND THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH.
SOME DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS LIKELY BUT IT WILL BE DRY.
HIGHS WILL PROBABLY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ACROSS NW OHIO WHERE THERE
WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. NNE WINS WILL KEEP IT COOLER AT THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE.
AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO COME BOWLING ACROSS THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION. IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY BUT
ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING AND STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO.
HIGHS MAY HOLD IN THE MID 70S ACROSS NO OHIO IF THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARRIVE QUICKLY ENOUGH. UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
BY WEDNESDAY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
SCATTERED AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME THE ACTIVITY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY GET INTO THE LOWER 80S PERHAPS THE MID
80S IF THE SHOWERS CAN HOLD OFF AND WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN SOME
AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NRN OHIO ON
THURSDAY. IT IS A LITTLE TO SOON TO RESOLVE TIMING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE AS THIS
LAST PIECE OF ENERGY PASSES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO START THE DAY AT LEAST SO WILL ONLY GO
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES ALTHOUGH COULD BE WARMER IF WE END UP
WITH MORE SUN. A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A LOW POP...MAINLY IN THE EAST. THE 18/00Z
RUN OF THE GFS TRIES TO SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ON SATURDAY BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF
SO WILL DISREGARD FOR NOW AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SW OHIO WITH 3 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS INTO CENTRAL
PA. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS PA OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS EXTREME EASTERN OHIO IN
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BACK EDGE OF
SHOWER JUST EAST OF TOL/FDY LINE MOVING EAST AT 20-25 KNOTS. MVFR
WITH AREAS OF IFR WITH THE SHOWERS.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF
IFR BR TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEN BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A FAIRLY COMPACT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
TODAY. AS THIS LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH...NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL INCREASE FOR A WINDOW OF TIME TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH WAVES BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE WINDS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.
WE WILL BE CLOSE TO NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THIS EVENING
BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT EVALUATE TRENDS BEFORE ISSUING. THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING WAVES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING ON
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE LAKE.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SETTING UP FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1207 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN FOR
MONDAY. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND NORTH OF CHICAGO ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP TIMING BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO EMPLOYED HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION
HOURLY TEMPS TO MANAGE AFTERNOON FLUCTUATIONS CAUSED BY ONSHORE
FLOW/RAIN COOLED AIR/INCREASING SUN WEST.
FULL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PRETTY WELL DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW SHOULD TRAVEL EAST...PROBABLY JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WHICH PUTS THE OVERRUNNING SYNOPTIC TYPE RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY AND STABLE BUT
WITH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT INCLUDING A COUPLED JET...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION TO MOISTEN UP THE LOW LAYERS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. NOT SURE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER. WILL INCLUDE
THUNDER SOUTH...FROM ABOUT ROUTE 30 SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE TRIPLE
POINT...AND ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE IT WILL GET A LITTLE
MORE UNSTABLE. THERE IS DECENT SHEAR BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE IN OR NEAR THE WARM SECTOR...PROBABLY FROM
AROUND PITTSBURGH SOUTH. WILL JUST MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDER
FROM AROUND TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW DEGREES WITH THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AND
WITH THE DEVELOPING ENE SURFACE FLOW IT MAY NOT RECOVER MUCH EXCEPT
ACROSS NW OHIO WHERE THE RAIN WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
BARELY TO 70 WHERE IT STAYS THE CLOUDIEST AND THE RAIN LINGERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TROUGHINESS LINGERS ALOFT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND PA ON
MONDAY AND THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH.
SOME DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS LIKELY BUT IT WILL BE DRY.
HIGHS WILL PROBABLY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ACROSS NW OHIO WHERE THERE
WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. NNE WINS WILL KEEP IT COOLER AT THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE.
AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO COME BOWLING ACROSS THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION. IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY BUT
ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING AND STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO.
HIGHS MAY HOLD IN THE MID 70S ACROSS NO OHIO IF THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARRIVE QUICKLY ENOUGH. UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
BY WEDNESDAY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
SCATTERED AND IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO TRY AND TIME THE ACTIVITY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY GET INTO THE LOWER 80S PERHAPS THE MID
80S IF THE SHOWERS CAN HOLD OFF AND WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN SOME
AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NRN OHIO ON
THURSDAY. IT IS A LITTLE TO SOON TO RESOLVE TIMING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE AS THIS
LAST PIECE OF ENERGY PASSES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO START THE DAY AT LEAST SO WILL ONLY GO
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES ALTHOUGH COULD BE WARMER IF WE END UP
WITH MORE SUN. A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A LOW POP...MAINLY IN THE EAST. THE 18/00Z
RUN OF THE GFS TRIES TO SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ON SATURDAY BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF
SO WILL DISREGARD FOR NOW AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO TODAY WITH AN AREA OF RAIN LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH
MVFR AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT THE SOUTHERN SITES AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE IN.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE RAIN BECOMES MODERATE GIVEN THE
VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT. CEILINGS ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
LOW ARE DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW BUT EXPECT
LESS IFR AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW. RAIN WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS QUICKLY
RETURNING TO VFR.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z GIVEN LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
RAIN.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A FAIRLY COMPACT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
TODAY. AS THIS LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH...NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL INCREASE FOR A WINDOW OF TIME TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH WAVES BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE WINDS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.
WE WILL BE CLOSE TO NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THIS EVENING
BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT EVALUATE TRENDS BEFORE ISSUING. THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING WAVES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING ON
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE LAKE.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SETTING UP FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.AVIATION...
HAVE MENTIONED TSRA AT KSSF/KSAT THRU 19Z/20Z RESPECTIVELY...THEN
VCSH AT ALL I-35 TAFS THRU 02Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. HAVE GONE
WITH PROB30 AT KAUS FOR 09/09Z-15Z AS BEST ESTIMATE ON TIMING FROM
HI-RES MODELS. HAVE NO MENTION OF PRECIP AT OTHER TAFS DUE ONLY
PROB20. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND SUBSEQUENT TIMING OF PASSAGE OF SHRA/TSRA COMPLEXES TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...
THEN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CIGS
LIFT TO VFR LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA. SELY WINDS 8 TO 18 KTS WILL PREVAIL...
EXCEPT VRBL WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN AND NEAR TSRA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
UPDATE...
THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX COUNTIES
CONTINUES TO ESCALATE QUICKLY. A LOOK AT SATELLITE DERIVED WV
FIELDS AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES A MUCH HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AS SURFACE TO 700 MB WINDS FUNNEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM A SOURCE WHICH ALMOST REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS NEAR THE SWRN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION FOCUS COULD SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST INTO WEST CENTRAL
TX. NEW CONVECTION IS ONGOING OVER NW TX AND COULD HELP TO PREVENT
THE HIGHWAY 281 CONVECTIVE FOCUS FROM EVOLVING INTO AN MCS. THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ISSUING AN FFA...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN GIVEN THE
LATEST CELL TRENDS OVER ATASCOSA COUNTY. POPS WERE UPGRADED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED.
THE THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCED AIRMASS ALSO WARRANTED A SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS AND REDUCE WINDS AND SHIFT THEM TO MORE
EASTERLY. AS THE 12Z SYNOPTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE SO FALL ALL BOMBED
ON INITIALIZING THE MOISTURE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH...WILL HOPE TO
UTILIZE CURRENT AND FUTURE RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS THE SPC GUIDANCE
TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER THAT COULD DEVELOP FOR TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SIMILAR PATTERN THIS MORNING AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTHERLY MOIST GULF FLOW...AND UPPER LEVEL
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. EXPECT
THE CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS 1-3 F LOWER THAN THE
PAST TWO DAYS. WE ARE STILL A LITTLE BEYOND THE FORECAST RANGE OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL SIGNAL OF THE STALLED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENDING UP ALONG I-20 BY 06Z MONDAY...AND ALONG
I-10 (WEST OF JCT) BY 06Z TUESDAY LOOKS INTACT. SIMILARLY...THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLY TIMED
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF MCS/S TO THE NORTH. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS...EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY FOR
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS TIMING
HOLDS...VERY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9 C/KM AND
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BE
EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT ENVIRONMENT ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL (GREATER
THAN GOLF BALL-SIZE). HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE FORECAST. THE
STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LINGERING STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EAST OF I-35.
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MEXICO DURING THE
MID-WEEK. THE GREATEST IMPACT FOR OUR AREA SHOULD BE ON THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S (+10 ABOVE
NORMAL) WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME BREAKDOWN IN THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A MINOR COOLING TREND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME SINCE THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SMALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 74 89 72 90 / 40 20 30 30 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 74 89 72 90 / 40 20 30 30 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 90 72 91 / 40 20 30 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 87 69 89 / 70 20 30 30 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 76 95 74 95 / 30 20 20 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 87 70 89 / 50 20 30 30 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 92 72 92 / 30 20 20 20 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 90 72 90 / 40 20 30 30 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 88 73 90 / 30 10 30 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 75 91 73 91 / 40 20 20 20 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 75 92 74 91 / 30 20 20 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1217 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect MVFR CIGS the next couple of hours at the KJCT and KSOA
terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will prevail this
afternoon and evening. Stratus will return again late tonight and
Monday morning and have MVFR CIGS at the terminals after 09Z.
Another complex of thunderstorms will probably move south into the
Big Country and Concho Valley late tonight. Have gone with VCTS at
the KABI and KSJT terminals for a few hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014/
UPDATE...
We updated the zones based on current observations, satellite, and
radar trends.
DISCUSSION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
UPDATE...
Updated morning POPS for convective trends.
DISCUSSION...
Increased rain chances to categorical this morning in the Big
Country and likely farther south in the Concho Valley. Storm complex
will dissipate or move east mid morning, but isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely redevelop this
afternoon with the suns heating.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN Jun 8 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
The remnants of the thunderstorm complex were moving east through
the Big County and Concho Valley at 1130Z. Thunder with MVFR CIGS
likely at KABI through mid morning. A brief thunderstorm may also
affect KSJT. Light showers likely across the rest of the TAF sites
this morning. Stratus with MVFR CIGS expected to rise to VFR by late
morning, but returning late tonight. Isolated thunderstorms possible
this afternoon. Best chance will be at KABI, where a VCTS was added
mid afternoon. A second complex of storm is expected late tonight,
mainly affecting KABI, KSJT, and KBBD after 8Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Large MCS in the South Plains, just west and north of the Big Country
at 2 AM, will spread eastward across the Big Country this morning.
The HRRR model seems to be handling this mesoscale convective
complex the best, pushing the leading edge of storms, east of
Abilene at 7 AM this morning. It also sends a thunderstorm outflow
boundary southward to San Angelo to Brownwood around noon. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to redevelop late morning and afternoon in
the Big Country, with isolated storms farther southward in the
Concho Valley and to Brownwood. GFS SB CAPES of 1300 to 1800 J/KG
and 0-6 KM Bulk Shears indicate the potential for severe
thunderstorms. A tornado also possible, but large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats.
Tonight, isolated diurnal thunderstorms may stay around during the
evening, with another large MCS moving in from the South Plains, as
a weak cold front approaches the region. The Big Country will again
see the best chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, with
decreasing chances south.
04
LONG TERM...
(Monday and Monday Night)
A weak cold front will move south across West Central Texas and
extend rain chances into Monday night. The severe weather threat
looks low for Monday and Monday night; however, there remains a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of a
line from Sonora, to Eden, to Brownwood. The primary threats are
large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning.
Otherwise, models continue in good agreement with the timing of
Monday`s front; the GFS is slightly slower than the NAM. By Monday
afternoon, most of West Central Texas should have northerly surface
winds. The GFS is more aggressive with QPF than the NAM for Monday,
and it brings a convective complex south across West Central Texas
with the front. A compromise between these two models looks best for
Monday PoPs, with the greatest rain chances mainly along and east of
a Sweetwater, to San Angelo, to Junction line. Highs on Monday close
to MOS guidance look best, with numbers at Abilene and San Angelo
slightly below seasonal normals. For Monday night, the GFS indicates
showers and thunderstorms may linger along and near where the front
will stall; however, confidence for where the front may stall isn`t
very high. Thus, 20 PoPs across a broad area of West Central Texas
looks best for Monday night. Lows Monday night close to MOS guidance
also looks reasonable.
(Tuesday through Saturday)
The remainder of the Long Term looks dry, with temperatures
gradually warming through the end of this week and into the start of
next weekend. By late week, a broad upper ridge builds over the
southwestern CONUS; nevertheless, northwest flow aloft over much of
Texas would be favorable for nocturnal MCS scenarios.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 66 85 59 87 68 / 60 30 20 5 5
San Angelo 68 88 64 89 68 / 40 20 20 5 5
Junction 73 89 69 90 69 / 20 20 20 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1154 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX COUNTIES
CONTINUES TO ESCALATE QUICKLY. A LOOK AT SATELLITE DERIVED WV
FIELDS AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES A MUCH HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AS SURFACE TO 700 MB WINDS FUNNEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM A SOURCE WHICH ALMOST REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS NEAR THE SWRN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION FOCUS COULD SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST INTO WEST CENTRAL
TX. NEW CONVECTION IS ONGOING OVER NW TX AND COULD HELP TO PREVENT
THE HIGHWAY 281 CONVECTIVE FOCUS FROM EVOLVING INTO AN MCS. THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ISSUING AN FFA...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN GIVEN THE
LATEST CELL TRENDS OVER ATASCOSA COUNTY. POPS WERE UPGRADED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED.
THE THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCED AIRMASS ALSO WARRANTED A SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS AND REDUCE WINDS AND SHIFT THEM TO MORE
EASTERLY. AS THE 12Z SYNOPTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE SO FALL ALL BOMBED
ON INITIALIZING THE MOISTURE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH...WILL HOPE TO
UTILIZE CURRENT AND FUTURE RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS THE SPC GUIDANCE
TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER THAT COULD DEVELOP FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SIMILAR PATTERN THIS MORNING AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTHERLY MOIST GULF FLOW...AND UPPER LEVEL
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. EXPECT
THE CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS 1-3 F LOWER THAN THE
PAST TWO DAYS. WE ARE STILL A LITTLE BEYOND THE FORECAST RANGE OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL SIGNAL OF THE STALLED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENDING UP ALONG I-20 BY 06Z MONDAY...AND ALONG
I-10 (WEST OF JCT) BY 06Z TUESDAY LOOKS INTACT. SIMILARLY...THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLY TIMED
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF MCS/S TO THE NORTH. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS...EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY FOR
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS TIMING
HOLDS...VERY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9 C/KM AND
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BE
EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT ENVIRONMENT ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL (GREATER
THAN GOLF BALL-SIZE). HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE FORECAST. THE
STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LINGERING STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EAST OF I-35.
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MEXICO DURING THE
MID-WEEK. THE GREATEST IMPACT FOR OUR AREA SHOULD BE ON THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S (+10 ABOVE
NORMAL) WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME BREAKDOWN IN THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A MINOR COOLING TREND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME SINCE THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SMALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 74 89 72 90 / 50 20 30 30 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 74 89 72 90 / 50 20 30 30 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 74 90 72 91 / 50 20 30 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 72 87 69 89 / 70 20 30 30 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 76 95 74 95 / 20 20 20 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 73 87 70 89 / 60 20 30 30 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 74 92 72 92 / 60 20 20 20 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 74 90 72 90 / 50 20 30 30 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 74 88 73 90 / 40 10 30 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 87 75 91 73 91 / 60 20 20 20 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 75 92 74 91 / 60 20 20 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1211 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THIS
TROUGHING...THE MOST NOTABLE SHORTWAVES INCLUDE ONE NEAR CHICAGO...
ANOTHER IN IDAHO AND A THIRD OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA. THE SHORTWAVE
NEAR CHICAGO HELPED BRING SOME OF THE RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY...WHICH HAS SINCE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL DEALING
WITH COLD FRONTAL INVERSION STRATUS AS SEEN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND 11-3.9UM IMAGERY. THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING HAVING A 925MB TEMP OF
10C COMPARED TO 17C AT DVN AND GRB REFLECTS THE COLD FRONT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEEN CLEARING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS DRIER AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z INL AND ABR SOUNDINGS ADVECTS
SOUTH. BOTH SOUNDINGS WERE WARMER AT 925MB AS WELL...AROUND 15C.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALSO ACCOMPANIED THE CLEARING. SOME
FOG HAS FORMED WITHIN THE CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO THE IDAHO SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING AS IT REACHES WESTERN KS BY 12Z
MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GRAND FORKS ND AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY
INTO THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...LEAVING PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME MORNING FOG DUE TO THE CLEARING...MOSTLY
PRIOR TO 13Z...OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 16C AT 00Z SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A 100-120 KT UPPER JET STREAK TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GRAND FORKS AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
CIRCULATION IS INDICATED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA...LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
JET STREAK. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE 07.12Z ECMWF AND 08.00Z NAM WANT
TO SPREAD THE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST...COMPARED TO THE 08.00Z GFS/REGIONAL
CANADIAN. THE FARTHER EAST MODELS SUGGEST 60-70 PERCENT CHANCES
WOULD BE WARRANTED WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS WOULD
BE DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH 30-40
PERCENT CHANCES. EITHER SCENARIO SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...
WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING IN WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD
BE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. STAYED WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR LOWS...THOUGH DID LEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF WI GIVEN LONGER PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED
THERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
SIMILAR TO THE TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SHORTWAVE OVER GRAND FORKS AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
PUSH THE UPPER JET STREAK EASTWARD...SO EVENTUALLY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE FRONTOGENETICAL
CIRCULATION. ONCE THAT OCCURS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO
FALL APART...WHICH THE 08.00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN ALL SHOW
OCCURRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST IS THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. HERE THE NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE
ECMWF ARE THE MOST BULLISH AND FARTHEST EAST...WHEREAS THE REGIONAL
CANADIAN/GFS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT SOME LOWER 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THE NORTHWEST 1/3-1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 2 SCENARIOS WHICH SUPPORTS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES.
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE VICINITY OF DODGE COUNTY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION FOR THE FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM KS AND OK ON
MONDAY TO THE CHICAGO AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL FIGHT DRY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY DRY.
THAT GOOD AGREEMENT FALLS APART FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHERE
THE 08.00Z GFS WANTS TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS THE 08.00Z NAM/CANADIAN/07.12Z ECMWF
REFLECT A DRY FORECAST. NEW 08.00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MAYBE SLIGHTLY
WETTER...MOSTLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST 1/3 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH LEANED DRIER...KEPT THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. DID THROW 20 PERCENT CHANCES A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW ECMWF...
HOWEVER.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST
FORCING FOR THIS TROUGH STAYS TO THE NORTH...BUT DID KEEP SOME
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN A COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD GET RELATIVELY COOL AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 6-8C
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING UNSETTLED AS A
POSITIVELY TITLED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S.. LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...BRINGING GOOD VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING
THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MON. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE/
CLOUDS...MOSTLY IN THE 7K-12K FT RANGE...ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND FOR MON MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY WITH THIS INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A RATHER MIXED
SIGNAL IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY SHRA LATE
TONIGHT/MON MORNING. FOR NOW...ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT KRST
IN THE 10-18Z PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RRS