Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/07/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS RENO NV
519 PM PDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
HRRR SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING A BIT FARTHER NORTH
THAN FORECAST THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST ONE CELL HAS DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. IN ANTICIPATION OF ADDITIONAL CELLS
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH WE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF UPDATE TO EXTEND
ISOLATED POPS TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST OR JUST WEST. CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THIS
CONVECTION MAY HELP TO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT ON OUR SIDE THIS EVENING. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM PDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA AND OUT INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA
THIS EVENING, WITH CONTINUED LOW CHANCES IN THE SIERRA FOR THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER LOW WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND EXPAND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THERE
ARE SOME INCREASING CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DEPICTS A DECENT VORTICITY LOBE SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
WARMING. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING ANY CONVECTION
AT THIS TIME. WE WILL REEVALUATE AT THE NEXT SERIES OF MODEL RUNS.
OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS QUIET FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SIERRA ON
SUNDAY. THESE CHANCES ARE LOOKING A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE TODAY,
BUT HAVE KEPT THEM IN SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 80S AND SOME LOW 90S FOR WESTERN
NEVADA VALLEYS. BOYD
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ON MONDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. RECENT MODEL RUNS BRING IN THE LOW SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCES
OF SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND RAISE THE CHANCES OF
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FORCING ARE STILL IN QUESTION. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR OVERNIGHT, DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR FIRE WEATHER.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER ON MONDAY NOW, BUT
WITH A LOW OFF THE COAST WOULD STILL EXPECT CONVECTION AT SOME
POINT. WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY AND THE CHALLENGES OF
PREDICTING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION, DECIDED TO LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST
AS IS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. NORMAL ZEPHYR WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
ZEPHYR WINDS ON THURSDAY AS A DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
NORTHWEST. WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND WINDS INCREASING, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK. TOLBY
AVIATION...
RADAR AT 21Z SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. CURRENT HRRR MODEL HAS CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO BUILD MAINLY IN NORTHERN MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES WITH
A FEW DISCRETE CELLS BUILDING NEAR THE TAHOE BASIN AND FURTHER
NORTH OF I-80. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR TSTM WILL BE AT KTVL (25%)
FOLLOWED BY KTRK/KMMH (20%) AND KCXP/KRNO (10%). MOST LIKELY
IMPACT AT ALL TERMINALS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45KTS.
LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS REMAIN ON SATURDAY GENERALLY UP TO 10%
FOR SIERRA TERMINALS. TOLBY
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
650 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH WESTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT...SOME SHOWERS HAVE FLARED UP JUST TO THE EAST OF
LAKE GEORGE...HEADING MAINLY EAST. TOPS WERE UP TO 20,000...BUT THE
50 DBZ CORE WAS WELL UNDER 27,000 (WHERE LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE).
DID ISSUE A BULLET NOW FOR THAT CELL BUT AT WORST...SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL WITH IT.
THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF ALBANY (ONE HAS POPPED UP OVER THE DUTCHESS/ULSTER COUNTY LINE).
THE LATEST HRRR LOOKS TO HANDLE THE ACTIVITY NEAR LAKE GEORGE
WELL...BUT DOES NOT HAVE ANYTHING FURTHER SOUTH.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THAT REGION. ANOTHER SHORT WAS WAS
WORKING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS ONE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER ON THIS EVENING AND MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
FOR THIS UPDATE...TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE NEAR
TERM CHANGES (MORE ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH). BELIEVE ANY
CONVECTION WELL TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD DIE OUT ONCE THE SUN SETS.
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD/REDEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING E/SE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO...AND A LARGER COLD POOL NOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE...AND ANOTHER ONE FOR
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BECOME PREDOMINATE...ESPECIALLY
FROM AROUND INTERSTATE 90 NORTHWARD. TO THE SOUTH...THERE SHOULD BE
SOME PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY...TO EVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FORCING FROM THE TWO OVERNIGHT WAVES...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH AS FAR S AS
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
CATSKILLS...ESP AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS PERSIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...SOME CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
THEN...SKIES MAY TREND TO PARTLY OR EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD IN THE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ESP IN
VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER
70S...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BUILD UP RATHER QUICKLY BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES POSSIBLE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
STILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN VT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID/UPPER 70S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AS MIXING DEEPENS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MODELS SO SUGGEST A COLD POOL TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DEEP LAYER
OF DRY AIR AS WELL. SO...NO MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION AT THIS
TIME...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 80-85 IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MIN TEMPS FOR BOTH FRI
NT/SAT AM...AND SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND INTO THE SOMEWHAT CHILLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS.
SUNDAY...MODELS DIVERGE IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IT APPEARS
THAT...AT THE VERY LEAST...AS OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...SLIGHT CHC POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED FOR AREAS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES JUST A LITTLE FASTER...THEN THE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR AREAS NEAR
AND W OF THE HUDSON RIVER. IT SHOULD BE WARM AND MORE HUMID...WITH
MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT MAX TEMPS
COULD BE EVEN WARMER IN VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ARE
IN THE FORECAST BASED OFF OF DIURNAL HEATING TRENDS AND THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SMALL UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE TO THE EAST TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WE GO TOWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS WE GO LATER INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...A WEAK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP AND WITH WITH WEAK WINDS
ALOFT...NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN AREAS OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IN A SLIGHTLY
FAVORABLE AREA OF SOME 500 HPA VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH JUST AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS ALL SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST AND EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACCORDING TO SOME OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK DYNAMIC SET UP FOR ENHANCED VERTICAL
ASCENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-80KT JET.
IN-CONJUNCTION WITH A SET OF WEAK SURFACE LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
POLEWARD ALONG THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID OHIO
VALLEY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE PLATEAU OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A MORE DYNAMIC SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING THE HIGHEST POPS.
OTHERWISE WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR A STALLED OUT FRONT...MOST
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY INDUCED WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 60S WITH THIS HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MVFR
STRATUS IMPACTS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE EXITED EAST OF THE
REGION...REPLACED WITH A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT.
THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND GRADUALLY THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL DETERMINING IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OR DEVELOP INTO A MVFR STRATUS DECK WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE REGION. FAVORING MVFR STRATUS AT THE TAF
SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z IF ENOUGH CLEARING TAKES PLACE AT KPOU AND KPSF
WHERE IT RECENTLY RAINED. A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 5 KFT
WILL RETURN DURING THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH WESTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE RH WILL RECOVER INTO THE 80-100 PERCENT RANGE TONIGHT...THEN
FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN VALLEY AREAS...AND 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRI AFTN. THE RH WILL RISE BACK TO 90-100 FOR
FIR NT...WITH DEW FORMATION LIKELY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY FROM ONE TENTH TO
ONE THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS...WHILE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 88...AND
NORTH OF I-90 RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO RAIN.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST AREAS.
THIS AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
402 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN EXITS THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM A
SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY...DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
255 PM UPDATE...
MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS TIMING...SO LEANED HEAVILY UPON THEM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT
OBSERVED TRENDS.
05/12Z GUIDANCE WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT HANDLING A LOW PRESSURE
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE TO MINIMIZE THE MINOR DIFFERENCES.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE TIME
OF THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO
SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND BECOME MORE PREVALENT FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MA
FRIDAY MORNING...UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE.
MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF RISING HEIGHTS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER AS THE
RESULT. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...THUS A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY WEEKEND WITH WARM DAYS PARTICULARLY JUST INLAND FROM COAST
* A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK BUT FAR FROM A WASHOUT
DETAILS...
THIS WEEKEND...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE JUST IS A LOW RISK OF A BRIEF SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO SAT AFTERNOON...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF COLD POOL ALOFT AND
ANY LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY. EVEN IF A FEW WERE TO
OCCUR...AREAL COVERAGE WOULD BE QUITE LIMITED AND SHORT LIVED IN A
GIVEN LOCATION.
HIGH TEMPS ON SAT/SUN SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZES AT TIMES. THIS MEANS THAT PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST
MAY SEE COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO TIMING ANY POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION THREATS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE BEST
SHOT WILL BE TUE INTO WED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. WILL
CARRY 20 TO 30 POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER. WILL JUST HAVE TO BE ON THE
LOOK OUT FOR A ROUND OR TWO OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
RANGING FROM VFR WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KBDL...TO AN IFR/MVFR MIX
FARTHER EAST. AS RAINFALL DEPARTS...STILL EXPECTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS LONG AS THERE IS AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND. WINDS BACK TO NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
START THE PROCESS OF DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. EXPECTING A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES. BETTER SHOT
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AS WELL. WINDS BACKING NW OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING BRISK THEREBY KEEPING HEIGHTENED SEAS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR
BOATERS ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
THIS TIME PERIOD. EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER IS IN THE CARDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
255 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. ASIDE FROM A
SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY...DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. MILD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED EARLY NEXT WEEK
HOWEVER THE RISK OF SHOWERS INCREASE AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
255 PM UPDATE...
MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS TIMING...SO LEANED HEAVILY UPON THEM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT
OBSERVED TRENDS.
05/12Z GUIDANCE WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT HANDLING A LOW PRESSURE
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE TO MINIMIZE THE MINOR DIFFERENCES.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE TIME
OF THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO
SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND BECOME MORE PREVALENT FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MA
FRIDAY MORNING...UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE.
MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF RISING HEIGHTS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER AS THE
RESULT. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...THUS A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM THIS WEEKEND
* MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT RISK OF SHOWERS AS WELL
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WHILE THERE IS ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE IS VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLES /ECENS & GEFS/ THAT A SUPPRESSED
NORTHERN STREAM/POLAR JET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS AND
PRECLUDE ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS IF NOT LONGER. THUS A HEAT WAVE IS
NOT IN THE FORECAST BUT RATHER VERY PLEASANT TEMPS THIS PERIOD
/SEASONABLY WARM/ ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
50S/.
AS FOR PRECIP...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER SAT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
EARLY NEXT WEEK BOTH ENSEMBLES AND HI RES DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE MS VLY. HOWEVER AS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME RANGE THE HI RES OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THIS LONG
WAVE TROUGH. THUS WILL FOLLOW ENSEMBLES HERE AS A BASELINE TO OUR
FORECAST.
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...
SATURDAY...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED LOW LVL TEMPS SHOULD HAVE
INCREASED FASTER THAN THE UPPER LVLS...YIELDING MOIST ADIABATIC
MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE A VERY LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED SHRA
OR T- STORM. HOWEVER CAPE IS LACKING...AS IS A SOURCE OF
LIFT...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH IF ANY VERY WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM POTENTIAL SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE LACK OF CAPE...FORCING AND A FAIRLY DRY
COLUMN WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE SHOWER FREE. HENCE A VERY NICE DAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...TEMPS IN THE U70S TO L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SO DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES. WARM TEMPS AS WELL WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND...COOLER SOUTH
COAST WITH SSW WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.
MON THRU WED...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER
THE MS VLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY ADVECTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THEREFORE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
DRY WEATHER MAY BE MON WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS INCREASING TUE AND
WED. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN TIME
RANGE HERE BUT ALSO PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES
INDICATING MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
RANGING FROM VFR WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KBDL...TO AN IFR/MVFR MIX
FARTHER EAST. AS RAINFALL DEPARTS...STILL EXPECTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS LONG AS THERE IS AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND. WINDS BACK TO NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
START THE PROCESS OF DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. EXPECTING A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY WEATHER.
MON...LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. PROBABLY VFR BUT COULD LOWER TO MVFR IN LOW RISK OF
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AS WELL. WINDS BACKING NW OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING BRISK THEREBY KEEPING HEIGHTENED SEAS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR
BOATERS ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR QUIET/DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD VSBY. THUS NEARLY IDEAL BOATING
WEATHER.
MON...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT NEAR
SHORE WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE S MAY REACH AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
941 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE LITTLE OR NO UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
OVERNIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE APPEARS LOW ESPECIALLY WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY LITTLE
COVERAGE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. MODELS
ALSO INDICATE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION
WITHIN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE BOTH DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...GIVEN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE SC
MIDLANDS. MAINLY DRY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WATCHING
A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN VALLEY MOVING SE.
LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SEEM TO SHOW MUCH FROM THESE STORMS...BUT
INDICATES MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING. CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE MEANDERING OF THE FRONT...BUT MAY
GO LIGHT NORTHEAST AT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT. LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATING MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
834 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATING PRODUCTS FOR EXPIRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SO I WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED SHORT TERM GRIDS TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. EVOLUTION
OF THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING TOOK A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT DIRECTION
THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT AS THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF CONVECTION
HAS EVOLVED INTO TWO DISTINCT COMPLEXES WITH THE EASTERN END SINKING
SOUTH OVER GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN END LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE. SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT...BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN COOLED AREAS
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL
KEEP CONVECTION POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH 2 SHORT WAVES ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. MLCAPES RUNNING 1000-2000 EXCEPT SLIGHTLY LESS
FOR THE FAR ENE PORTION OF THE STATE. FIRST SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE SECOND EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MS/AL AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA VERY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...TENDING TO FAVOR CENTRAL GA MORE
SO. THE 4KM WRF REFLECTIVITY IS QUITE FAST WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND/AREA OF CONVECTION WHILE THE HRRR HAS BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT
AND SLOWER.
MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE LESS HELP FROM SHORT ENERGY ALOFT FOR
SATURDAY AND THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY TIED TO THE
INSTABILITY AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
BDL
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS
INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. WITH SO MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND
IT WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WHICH AREA OF THE CWA TO FAVOR WITH
HIGHER POPS. HOWEVER WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTH...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN THAT AREA
FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
41
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ON SUNDAY... MODELS AGREE ON A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
DRAGS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TO AROUND NORTH GA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT QUICKLY RETREATS NORTHWARD
MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS WHERE IT CUTS OFF BY TUESDAY... AND
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT... EXPECT A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH A FRONT MAY PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH GA... THE LACK OF A FRONTAL
FOCUS AND NOTED WEAK SHEAR VALUES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SUGGEST STORMS THEN SHOULD BE MORE OF THE TYPICAL GARDEN VARIETY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PULSE STORMS... AND THEREFORE... FOR THE MOST
PART... REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER... AS THE UPPER LOW
KICKS EASTWARD AND APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY... THE ADDED UPPER SUPPORT COULD ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN WARRANTS SHOWING
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED... WITH POSSIBLY THE GREATER CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OCCURRING LATER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND
OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY IN THE 60S AND 70S
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
39
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z
WITH SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DEVELOPING
06Z-14Z. ONLY TAF SITES WHERE I AM FORECASTING MVFR VISIBILITIES TO
DEVELOP ARE KAHN...KMCN AND KRYY...BASICALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE
KMCN/KCSG TAF SITES ARE TOO LOW TO CARRY A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
BETTER CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON MERITS A PROB30 AFTER 18Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE VARIABLE
AND GUSTY NEAR CONVECTION.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 89 69 87 / 40 40 30 50
ATLANTA 70 88 72 86 / 50 40 30 40
BLAIRSVILLE 59 84 64 80 / 40 40 30 60
CARTERSVILLE 65 88 69 87 / 50 40 30 50
COLUMBUS 72 90 73 90 / 70 40 20 40
GAINESVILLE 68 87 70 84 / 40 40 30 60
MACON 68 90 71 88 / 60 50 30 40
ROME 66 87 70 86 / 50 40 30 60
PEACHTREE CITY 67 89 69 87 / 50 40 30 40
VIDALIA 71 92 72 90 / 70 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH 2 SHORT WAVES ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. MLCAPES RUNNING 1000-2000 EXCEPT SLIGHTLY LESS
FOR THE FAR ENE PORTION OF THE STATE. FIRST SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE SECOND EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MS/AL AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA VERY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...TENDING TO FAVOR CENTRAL GA MORE
SO. THE 4KM WRF REFLECTIVITY IS QUITE FAST WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND/AREA OF CONVECTION WHILE THE HRRR HAS BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT
AND SLOWER.
MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE LESS HELP FROM SHORT ENERGY ALOFT FOR
SATURDAY AND THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY TIED TO THE
INSTABILITY AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
BDL
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS
INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. WITH SO MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND
IT WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WHICH AREA OF THE CWA TO FAVOR WITH
HIGHER POPS. HOWEVER WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTH...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN THAT AREA
FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
41
&&
.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ON SUNDAY... MODELS AGREE ON A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
DRAGS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TO AROUND NORTH GA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT QUICKLY RETREATS NORTHWARD
MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS WHERE IT CUTS OFF BY TUESDAY... AND
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT... EXPECT A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH A FRONT MAY PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH GA... THE LACK OF A FRONTAL
FOCUS AND NOTED WEAK SHEAR VALUES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SUGGEST STORMS THEN SHOULD BE MORE OF THE TYPICAL GARDEN VARIETY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PULSE STORMS... AND THEREFORE... FOR THE MOST
PART... REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER... AS THE UPPER LOW
KICKS EASTWARD AND APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY... THE ADDED UPPER SUPPORT COULD ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN WARRANTS SHOWING
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED... WITH POSSIBLY THE GREATER CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OCCURRING LATER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND
OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY IN THE 60S AND 70S
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
39
&&
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z
WITH SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DEVELOPING
06Z-14Z. ONLY TAF SITES WHERE I AM FORECASTING MVFR VISIBILITIES TO
DEVELOP ARE KAHN...KMCN AND KRYY...BASICALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE
KMCN/KCSG TAF SITES ARE TOO LOW TO CARRY A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
BETTER CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON MERITS A PROB30 AFTER 18Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE VARIABLE
AND GUSTY NEAR CONVECTION.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 68 89 69 87 / 30 40 30 50
ATLANTA 70 88 72 86 / 40 40 30 40
BLAIRSVILLE 59 84 64 80 / 30 40 30 60
CARTERSVILLE 66 88 69 87 / 40 40 30 50
COLUMBUS 72 90 73 90 / 60 40 20 40
GAINESVILLE 68 87 70 84 / 30 40 30 60
MACON 68 90 71 88 / 50 50 30 40
ROME 67 87 70 86 / 40 40 30 60
PEACHTREE CITY 67 89 69 87 / 50 40 30 40
VIDALIA 72 92 72 90 / 60 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...GORDON...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...MERIWETHER...
MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TROUP...WALKER...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
151 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014/
..POTENTIAL FOR COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO IMPACT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING THEN TRACK FURTHER
SOUTHEAST...
.UPDATE...
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATE
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE MORNING PRECIP LEFTOVERS...THERE LOOKS TO BE LESS
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
NOT EXTENDED AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. THE MAIN THREAT
LOOKS TO BE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN INTENSE MCC CURRENTLY ACROSS
MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND PROGGED TO REACH NW GA BY ABOUT 23Z THIS
EVENING /GIVEN THE TIMING TOOL/. THE ENVIRONMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWARD TURN WHICH MAY PEG WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BE
LIKELY TO HIGH END CHANCE RAMPING UP IN WESTERN PORTIONS FOR THIS
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
CLOUD COVER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED TEMPS IN NORTHWEST GA SO
BUMPED DAYTIME MAX VALUES DOWN CONSIDERABLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SET TO IMPACT THE CWA. CURRENTLY WATCHING
MCS TRACK THROUGH TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TN REMAIN
ROBUST...BOWING SEGMENT APPROACHING NORTHWEST GEORGIA IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. AS THIS COMPLEX PUSHES INTO THE STATE...EXPECT
IT TO SPREAD A FEW STRONG STORMS INTO NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE 4-8AM...WITH THE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING TO MAINLY SHOWERS THEREAFTER. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS
HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...WITH LOCAL
WRF...NMM...AND ARW RIDDLED WITH TIMING AND POSITION ISSUES.
OVERALL THE HRRR HAS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SO HAVE PARALLELED ITS SOLUTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BE DICTATED BY HOW THE MORNING
WEATHER EVOLVES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CLOUD COVER
FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY COULD ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...
AND COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS ACROSS
MIDDLE GEORGIA. WITH MODELED MLCAPE OF 2000+ J/KG AND MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE
BETWEEN NOON AND MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE STATE. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
JUST TO OUR WEST OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AL...BUT THE FIVE PERCENT AREA
FOR HAIL AND WIND ENCOMPASS THE MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
CWA. AREAS NORTH OF A HAMILTON TO LOUISVILLE LINE ARE PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ACTIVE PERIOD PERSISTS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY...AND HAVE CONTINUED
WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY AND INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT.
31
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR SATURDAY... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WHILE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COUPLED
WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED STORMS ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE STORMS
BECOMING STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT
PUSHES NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW PUSHING
INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY... A LINGERING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ON SUNDAY... AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. A LACK OF FRONTAL FOCUS
AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST STORMS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN... SUMMER TIME PULSE STORMS... AND REMAIN BELOW
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO AT LEAST NORTH GA ON MONDAY... THESE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...
WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY ENHANCING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT MEANDERING MAINLY JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTH BY EARLY TUESDAY AS MONDAYS
DISTURBANCE CUTS OFF OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTS OFF TO
THE NE ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THESE LATER
PERIODS... WILL SHOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS AT MINIMUM... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY
IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA IS
GENERALLY 00-06Z TONIGHT AS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG COMPLEX OF STORMS
TO PUSH ACROSS AREA FROM NORTHWEST. SOME STRONG WINDS COULD BE
EXPERIENCED ALONG BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THE MOMENT. WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN WEST AND NNW AT 10-14
KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 22 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLE UP UNTIL ABOUT 08Z TONIGHT WITH AFOREMENTIONED STORM
SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. STORM CHANCES ON
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY MAINLY AFTER 18Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW ON EVENING TSRA AND ENHANCED WIND POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
MEDIUM ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 90 69 89 67 / 30 40 40 30
ATLANTA 86 71 88 69 / 30 50 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 83 62 81 61 / 50 40 40 30
CARTERSVILLE 82 68 88 65 / 50 50 50 30
COLUMBUS 92 73 91 70 / 30 50 40 30
GAINESVILLE 86 69 86 67 / 40 50 40 30
MACON 92 69 91 70 / 50 50 40 30
ROME 84 68 89 66 / 60 60 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 88 68 89 66 / 30 50 40 30
VIDALIA 92 73 90 72 / 50 40 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1150 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
...POTENTIAL FOR COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO IMPACT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING THEN TRACK FURTHER
SOUTHEAST...
.UPDATE...
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATE
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE MORNING PRECIP LEFTOVERS...THERE LOOKS TO BE LESS
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
NOT EXTENDED AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. THE MAIN THREAT
LOOKS TO BE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN INTENSE MCC CURRENTLY ACROSS
MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND PROGGED TO REACH NW GA BY ABOUT 23Z THIS
EVENING /GIVEN THE TIMING TOOL/. THE ENVIRONMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWARD TURN WHICH MAY PEG WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BE
LIKELY TO HIGH END CHANCE RAMPING UP IN WESTERN PORTIONS FOR THIS
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
CLOUD COVER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED TEMPS IN NORTHWEST GA SO
BUMPED DAYTIME MAX VALUES DOWN CONSIDERABLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SET TO IMPACT THE CWA. CURRENTLY WATCHING
MCS TRACK THROUGH TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TN REMAIN
ROBUST...BOWING SEGMENT APPROACHING NORTHWEST GEORGIA IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. AS THIS COMPLEX PUSHES INTO THE STATE...EXPECT
IT TO SPREAD A FEW STRONG STORMS INTO NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE 4-8AM...WITH THE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING TO MAINLY SHOWERS THEREAFTER. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS
HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...WITH LOCAL
WRF...NMM...AND ARW RIDDLED WITH TIMING AND POSITION ISSUES.
OVERALL THE HRRR HAS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SO HAVE PARALLELED ITS SOLUTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BE DICTATED BY HOW THE MORNING
WEATHER EVOLVES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CLOUD COVER
FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY COULD ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...
AND COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS ACROSS
MIDDLE GEORGIA. WITH MODELED MLCAPE OF 2000+ J/KG AND MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE
BETWEEN NOON AND MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE STATE. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
JUST TO OUR WEST OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AL...BUT THE FIVE PERCENT AREA
FOR HAIL AND WIND ENCOMPASS THE MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
CWA. AREAS NORTH OF A HAMILTON TO LOUISVILLE LINE ARE PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ACTIVE PERIOD PERSISTS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY...AND HAVE CONTINUED
WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY AND INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT.
31
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR SATURDAY... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WHILE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COUPLED
WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED STORMS ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE STORMS
BECOMING STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT
PUSHES NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW PUSHING
INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY... A LINGERING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ON SUNDAY... AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. A LACK OF FRONTAL FOCUS
AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST STORMS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN... SUMMER TIME PULSE STORMS... AND REMAIN BELOW
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO AT LEAST NORTH GA ON MONDAY... THESE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...
WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY ENHANCING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT MEANDERING MAINLY JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTH BY EARLY TUESDAY AS MONDAYS
DISTURBANCE CUTS OFF OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTS OFF TO
THE NE ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THESE LATER
PERIODS... WILL SHOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS AT MINIMUM... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY
IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT COMPLEX HAVE NOW MADE IT INTO THE ATL METRO
AREA...AND HAVE TEMPO -SHRA AT NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH 13Z AND
VCSH THROUGH 14Z AS THE AREA OF RAIN DISSIPATES. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...BUT BEST TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE
AFTER 21-22Z AND CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH MVFR IN CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE WSW-WNW AT 8-12KT WITH
GUSTS TO 15-18KT TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO NW AT 6KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 90 69 89 67 / 30 40 40 30
ATLANTA 86 71 88 69 / 30 50 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 83 62 81 61 / 50 40 40 30
CARTERSVILLE 82 68 88 65 / 50 50 50 30
COLUMBUS 92 73 91 70 / 30 50 40 30
GAINESVILLE 86 69 86 67 / 40 50 40 30
MACON 92 69 91 70 / 50 50 40 30
ROME 84 68 89 66 / 60 60 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 88 68 89 66 / 30 50 40 30
VIDALIA 92 73 90 72 / 50 40 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SET TO IMPACT THE CWA. CURRENTLY WATCHING
MCS TRACK THROUGH TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TN REMAIN
ROBUST...BOWING SEGMENT APPROACHING NORTHWEST GEORGIA IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. AS THIS COMPLEX PUSHES INTO THE STATE...EXPECT
IT TO SPREAD A FEW STRONG STORMS INTO NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE 4-8AM...WITH THE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING TO MAINLY SHOWERS THEREAFTER. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS
HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...WITH LOCAL
WRF...NMM...AND ARW RIDDLED WITH TIMING AND POSITION ISSUES.
OVERALL THE HRRR HAS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SO HAVE PARALLELED ITS SOLUTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BE DICTATED BY HOW THE MORNING
WEATHER EVOLVES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CLOUD COVER
FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY COULD ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...
AND COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS ACROSS
MIDDLE GEORGIA. WITH MODELED MLCAPE OF 2000+ J/KG AND MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE
BETWEEN NOON AND MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE STATE. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
JUST TO OUR WEST OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AL...BUT THE FIVE PERCENT AREA
FOR HAIL AND WIND ENCOMPASS THE MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
CWA. AREAS NORTH OF A HAMILTON TO LOUISVILLE LINE ARE PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ACTIVE PERIOD PERSISTS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY...AND HAVE CONTINUED
WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY AND INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT.
31
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR SATURDAY... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WHILE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COUPLED
WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED STORMS ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE STORMS
BECOMING STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT
PUSHES NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW PUSHING
INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY... A LINGERING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ON SUNDAY... AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. A LACK OF FRONTAL FOCUS
AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST STORMS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN... SUMMER TIME PULSE STORMS... AND REMAIN BELOW
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO AT LEAST NORTH GA ON MONDAY... THESE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...
WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY ENHANCING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT MEANDERING MAINLY JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTH BY EARLY TUESDAY AS MONDAYS
DISTURBANCE CUTS OFF OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTS OFF TO
THE NE ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THESE LATER
PERIODS... WILL SHOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS AT MINIMUM... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY
IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT COMPLEX HAVE NOW MADE IT INTO THE ATL METRO
AREA...AND HAVE TEMPO -SHRA AT NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH 13Z AND
VCSH THROUGH 14Z AS THE AREA OF RAIN DISSIPATES. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...BUT BEST TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE
AFTER 21-22Z AND CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH MVFR IN CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE WSW-WNW AT 8-12KT WITH
GUSTS TO 15-18KT TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO NW AT 6KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 91 69 89 67 / 30 30 40 30
ATLANTA 88 71 88 69 / 50 40 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 83 62 81 61 / 50 30 40 30
CARTERSVILLE 87 68 88 65 / 60 40 40 30
COLUMBUS 92 73 91 70 / 20 30 40 30
GAINESVILLE 87 69 86 67 / 50 30 40 30
MACON 92 69 91 70 / 30 30 40 30
ROME 89 68 89 66 / 60 40 40 30
PEACHTREE CITY 89 68 89 66 / 30 40 40 30
VIDALIA 92 73 90 72 / 20 30 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
408 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SET TO IMPACT THE CWA. CURRENTLY WATCHING
MCS TRACK THROUGH TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TN REMAIN
ROBUST...BOWING SEGMENT APPROACHING NORTHWEST GEORGIA IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. AS THIS COMPLEX PUSHES INTO THE STATE...EXPECT
IT TO SPREAD A FEW STRONG STORMS INTO NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE 4-8AM...WITH THE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING TO MAINLY SHOWERS THEREAFTER. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS
HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...WITH LOCAL
WRF...NMM...AND ARW RIDDLED WITH TIMING AND POSITION ISSUES.
OVERALL THE HRRR HAS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SO HAVE PARALLELED ITS SOLUTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BE DICTATED BY HOW THE MORNING
WEATHER EVOLVES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CLOUD COVER
FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY COULD ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...
AND COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS ACROSS
MIDDLE GEORGIA. WITH MODELED MLCAPE OF 2000+ J/KG AND MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE
BETWEEN NOON AND MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE STATE. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
JUST TO OUR WEST OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AL...BUT THE FIVE PERCENT AREA
FOR HAIL AND WIND ENCOMPASS THE MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
CWA. AREAS NORTH OF A HAMILTON TO LOUISVILLE LINE ARE PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ACTIVE PERIOD PERSISTS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY...AND HAVE CONTINUED
WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY AND INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT.
31
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR SATURDAY... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WHILE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COUPLED
WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED STORMS ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE STORMS
BECOMING STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT
PUSHES NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW PUSHING
INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY... A LINGERING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ON SUNDAY... AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. A LACK OF FRONTAL FOCUS
AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST STORMS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN... SUMMER TIME PULSE STORMS... AND REMAIN BELOW
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO AT LEAST NORTH GA ON MONDAY... THESE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...
WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY ENHANCING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT MEANDERING MAINLY JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTH BY EARLY TUESDAY AS MONDAYS
DISTURBANCE CUTS OFF OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTS OFF TO
THE NE ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THESE LATER
PERIODS... WILL SHOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS AT MINIMUM... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY
IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
39
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE
MVFR WITHIN CONVECTION. LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA AND EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE AFTER 08-09Z.
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
STATE...AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE...STRENGTH
AND TIMING. EXPECT LULL IN ACTIVITY 12-16Z...THEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE 21-02Z AND GENERALLY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST...7KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE
TO 7-11KT WITH GUSTS 14-18KT AFTER 14Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 91 69 90 67 / 50 30 40 30
ATLANTA 88 71 89 69 / 40 40 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 83 62 83 61 / 60 30 40 30
CARTERSVILLE 87 68 89 65 / 50 40 40 30
COLUMBUS 92 73 91 70 / 20 30 40 30
GAINESVILLE 87 69 86 67 / 50 30 40 30
MACON 92 69 92 70 / 30 30 40 30
ROME 89 68 90 66 / 60 40 40 30
PEACHTREE CITY 89 68 89 66 / 30 40 40 30
VIDALIA 92 73 91 72 / 20 30 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1251 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
810 PM CDT
FOG NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM AND THEN FOG
POTENTIAL INLAND OVERNIGHT ARE SOME EVENING CHALLENGES.
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN
AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY PULLS AWAY. DRY AIR
ADVECTION WITH THE HIGH IS NOT QUICK ENOUGH TO HALT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS OF LAKE MI AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT AREAS OF LAND EARLY THIS EVE. GARY INDIANA HAS REPORTED
ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY BRIEFLY WITHIN THIS FOG AND SUCH
TEMPORARY LOW VISIBILITY OR EVEN LOWER ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE...MAINLY OF NW IN...PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. LATE DAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURED THE FOG WELL...WITH A WELL- DEFINED
BACK EDGE FROM ROUGHLY MILWAUKEE TO BENTON HARBOR BEING SHOVED BY
THE NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS BACK EDGE OF THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
ARRIVE NEAR THE NE IL AND NW IN SHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT IF IT KEEPS
UP ITS CURRENT PROPAGATION. PER WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS THIS FOG
HAS HUGGED THE SHORELINE AREAS THUS FAR BUT MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND
FURTHER INLAND AFTER DARK WHICH A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE. HAVE EXPANDED THE FOG MENTION DURING THE EVE HOURS IN
THE FORECAST...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THE LINGERING HIGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS FURTHER INLAND MAY SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING INCREASES. THINK WIND COMPONENT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PREVENT ANY DENSE FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD AND ITS RARE TO HAVE
DENSE FOG BE WIDESPREAD IN JUNE. BUT T/TD SPREADS OF ONLY 4
DEGREES AT KANKAKEE AND 5 DEGREES AT PONTIAC DO LEND TO SOME
UNEASINESS. SO CONTINUE PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS AT THIS TIME.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
320 PM CDT
SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT SKIES WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. THEREFORE...I
HAVE DELAYED THIS A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT TIMING WOULD KEEP
MOST OF MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AFTER
1 TO 2 AM...WITH FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS CLEARING UP BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE EXCESS MOISTURE STILL AROUND...WITH DEW
POINTS STILL WELL INTO THE 50S...AND THE FACT THAT THE AREA WILL NOT
HAVE A CHANCE TO REALLY DRY OUT WITH SUNSHINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. I ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM CHICAGO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR A FEW SPECTACULAR
DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN
LIKELY REMAIN DOMINATE THERE INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO
EFFECTIVELY SHIFT ALL OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THIS...FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS...IN THE 40S AND 50S...ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL MAKE FOR GREAT
CONDITIONS TO GET OUTSIDE. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SOME COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE...HOWEVER.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
MOISTURE TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SETTING THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE...SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL CONVECTIVELY ENHANCE THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
THEN TRACK IT ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN A QUASI
ZONAL STATE..WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP IN THE EXTEND PERIOD WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE UPPER MIDWEST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE COOLING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NONE.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK. CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION. ANY LAKE INDUCED STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED AND THE STAGNANT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY REMAINING STRATUS OVER THE LAKE.
THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE CAUSING FOG AT A FEW LOCATIONS
AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG FORECAST FOR GYY...DPA...AND
RFD. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST MVFR FOG...BUT WITH SITES ALREADY
BOUNCING IN THE IFR RANGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH 1 SM. VSBY MAY ALSO
BOUNCE AROUND MORE THAN FORECAST.
FOG...ASSUMING THERE IS SOME AT THE TERMINALS...QUICKLY BURNS OFF
IN THE MORNING WITH EAST WINDS. A SCATTERED VFR DECK SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WINDS TURN SE AND DIMINISH.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY FOG NOT FORMING AT THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSRA.
* SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA/TSRA. MORNING MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS EAST...THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITING THE
LAKE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL ASSIST THE FRONT IN MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
EARLY SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS POTENTIALLY AROUND 20 KT DURING
THIS PERIOD FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE
THE STRONGEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LAKES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH.
FOR ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
TOPPING OUT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SINCE LATE THIS MORNING...
SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MARGINAL CONDITIONS EXIST...MAINLY
BETWEEN WILMETTE HARBOR AND GARY BASED ON WIND DIRECTION AND OBS
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT AM
PLANNING TO DROP SCA AND BEACH HAZARD HEADLINES WITH AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1139 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Cold front has sunk to the Ohio River valley this evening, and
a ridge of high pressure building south across Lake Michigan has
turned winds northeast over the entire forecast area. Drier air
will be advected in through the night, with dew points falling
into the 50s north of I-74 already and this should spread over
most of the area over the next several hours. Clearing trend
continues to spread southward as well, but the RAP continues to
keep partly cloudy skies lingering around the southern fringes of
the CWA through the night. One item to watch is the fog potential,
primarily over the northern CWA where skies will be clearer. A
small area of low clouds and fog was evident this hour on 11-3.9mu
satellite imagery across the south quarter of Lake Michigan and
the adjacent Indiana shore, and the RAP model shows some of this
advecting southwest after midnight. Forecast visibility does show
it stopping shy of the CWA as the forecast sounding near
Bloomington is fairly dry late tonight except at the immediate
surface, so will leave this out for now and monitor the trends.
Updated zones/grids have been sent, mainly for sky cover and to
remove the lingering PoP`s in the far southeast CWA this evening.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1139 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
MVFR ceilings lingering at KSPI/KDEC as part of a narrow band of
clouds across the central sections of Illinois, but should be
exiting these areas in the first couple hours of the TAF period.
Would not rule out a bit of ground fog toward sunrise, but
forecast soundings and winds would suggest this should not be a
widespread problem. VFR conditions to prevail the remainder of the
period, as high pressure over Lake Michigan continues the east-
northeast flow. Ceilings expected to develop during the afternoon
ahead of an upper wave coming in from the west, but these will be
15kft or higher.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Problems today are the current boundary in unstable air mass over
the southeast, and several minor upper systems to move through and
trigger precip chances.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.
Surface low by this afternoon over central IN with weak
convergence on boundary that trails to the west into central MO.
Convection appears to be forming along boundary and in area of
MLCAPEs of 2500 and moisture convergence, SPC went with watch over
far southeast CWA. Boundary is shifting to the south slowly and so
watch will most likely be in affect for few hours.
Models all bring minor wave into southern sections for Friday
night, so kept chance pops in region.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.
Weak upper level flow does allow another weak system to move into
region Saturday into Sunday. Upper support at this time seems to
be weak in weak zonal flow aloft and so severe potential still
uncertain. Kept pops in region through weekend.
Another weak system for midweek in the continuing zonal flow.
Goetsch
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1213 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE. AN AREA OF
STRATUS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FAR EASTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN ISOLATED VISIBILITY BELOW
1/4 MILE AT FREEPORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EARLY
MORNING FOG POTENTIAL AND THE POSSIBILITY LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS REACHING
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...A LOCALIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED NEAR
FREEPORT...WITH LIGHT FOG TO THE SOUTH AT MOLINE...STERLING AND PRINCETON.
WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST GRIDS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
DUE TO THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. THE 13KM RAP CURRENTLY HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...AND THE DECK IS EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH IOWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND SOME NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...THE
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST SOME STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND THEN ANOTHER CHANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE ARRIVES BUT MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED. THE GFS SEEMS WAY OVERDONE WITH QPF AS THIS MODEL
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT MOISTURE ISSUES. THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY AND
WILL FOLLOW SUIT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THIS WEEKEND...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS STRUGGLING
WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE
TO OVER 1.50 INCHES...SO RAIN AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH ONE INCH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. A MORE WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE. MUCH
OF THE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY SO WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO SALVAGE AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S.
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS
THE ECMWF/GEM FORM A CUT-OFF CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE MID MS
VALLEY BY MID WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS HAS NO SUCH THING AND
KEEPS THE PATTERN PROGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN RAIN
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW THE CONSENSUS FORECAST
IS TO KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING AT CID AND DBQ...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT...
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY LEAD TO FOG TOWARD MORNING
AND HAVE TEMPO GROUPS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE UPDATED
FORECASTS FOR CID AND BRL.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
623 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE. AN AREA OF
STRATUS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FAR EASTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN ISOLATED VISIBILITY BELOW
1/4 MILE AT FREEPORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EARLY
MORNING FOG POTENTIAL AND THE POSSIBILITY LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS REACHING
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...A LOCALIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED NEAR
FREEPORT...WITH LIGHT FOG TO THE SOUTH AT MOLINE...STERLING AND PRINCETON.
WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST GRIDS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
DUE TO THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. THE 13KM RAP CURRENTLY HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...AND THE DECK IS EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH IOWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND SOME NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...THE
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST SOME STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND THEN ANOTHER CHANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE ARRIVES BUT MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED. THE GFS SEEMS WAY OVERDONE WITH QPF AS THIS MODEL
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT MOISTURE ISSUES. THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY AND
WILL FOLLOW SUIT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THIS WEEKEND...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS STRUGGLING
WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE
TO OVER 1.50 INCHES...SO RAIN AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH ONE INCH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. A MORE WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE. MUCH
OF THE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY SO WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO SALVAGE AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S.
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS
THE ECMWF/GEM FORM A CUT-OFF CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE MID MS
VALLEY BY MID WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS HAS NO SUCH THING AND
KEEPS THE PATTERN PROGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN RAIN
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW THE CONSENSUS FORECAST
IS TO KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
MAINLY MVFR FOG WILL LINGER AT AERODROMES UNTIL AROUND 14Z TO 15Z
THIS MORNING...WHILE KMLI MAY DIP BELOW A MILE VISIBILITY AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHEAST BREEZE AOB 10 KTS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE. AN AREA OF
STRATUS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FAR EASTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN ISOLATED VISIBILITY BELOW
1/4 MILE AT FREEPORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EARLY
MORNING FOG POTENTIAL AND THE POSSIBILITY LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS REACHING
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...A LOCALIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED NEAR
FREEPORT...WITH LIGHT FOG TO THE SOUTH AT MOLINE...STERLING AND PRINCETON.
WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST GRIDS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
DUE TO THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. THE 13KM RAP CURRENTLY HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...AND THE DECK IS EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH IOWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND SOME NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...THE
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST SOME STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND THEN ANOTHER CHANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE ARRIVES BUT MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED. THE GFS SEEMS WAY OVERDONE WITH QPF AS THIS MODEL
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT MOISTURE ISSUES. THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY AND
WILL FOLLOW SUIT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THIS WEEKEND...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS STRUGGLING
WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE
TO OVER 1.50 INCHES...SO RAIN AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH ONE INCH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. A MORE WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE. MUCH
OF THE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY SO WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO SALVAGE AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S.
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS
THE ECMWF/GEM FORM A CUT-OFF CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE MID MS
VALLEY BY MID WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS HAS NO SUCH THING AND
KEEPS THE PATTERN PROGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN RAIN
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW THE CONSENSUS FORECAST
IS TO KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION...BRINGING DRY AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THE
REMAINING MVFR/VFR CIGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BRL. THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z THURSDAY
MORNING MAINLY AT DBQ AND BRL. OTHER THAN THIS...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL KS EAST ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHERN IL TO A LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AT
19Z. A WEAK TROUGH AND LAKE ENHANCED BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TRAILED
W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL IL THROUGH EASTERN IA INTO FAR SE MN. ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WERE KEEPING
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WAS ALSO TRIGGERING A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER...DRIER AIR OVER NW IL INTO EAST CENTRAL IA...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER SE IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL IL. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...WHICH WAS HELPING BUILD A 1014 MB
SURFACE HIGH DOWNSTREAM OVER UPPER MI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FOCUS AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TONIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDES EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE WEAK
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL LEND
A MORE UNIFORM E-NE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND FAVORING CLEARING SKIES. LOW LEVEL RH
FIELDS IN 18Z RAP MODEL...WHICH HAD A DECENT DEPICTION OF CLOUD
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...ADVERTISES THIS CLEARING TAKING
PLACE FROM NE TO SW...WITH SE IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL IL POSSIBLY
HANGING ON TO CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER. WITH
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CLEARING EARLIEST AND LIKELY TO SEE
DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...HAVE MINS THERE
RANGING FROM 49 AT FREEPORT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S NORTH OF I-80.
LATER CLEARING AND HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN WILL HOLD
AREAS TO THE SOUTH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR
ON LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANY FOG
POTENTIAL BELOW THRESHOLDS WORTH MENTIONING...BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.
THURSDAY...THE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.
GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOOKED REASONABLE AND WERE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DEPICT TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY WITH ONE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND THE OTHER TO THE SOUTH OF
EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS AND WILL LEAVE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
A LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WE ENJOY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING. AS
THE RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH... MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CONTINUED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND THUS HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WHICH SPLITS THIS ENERGY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE WOULD MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA
WHILE THE SECOND DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
AND WOULD LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE GFS
AND LEAVE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION...BRINGING DRY AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THE
REMAINING MVFR/VFR CIGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BRL...BUT CURRENT
INFO SUGGEST IT WILL CLEAR THAT SITE BY 06Z...THUS WE WILL SHOW NO
CIGS AT ANY SITE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY AT DBQ AND
BRL. OTHER THAN THIS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
647 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
IMPULSE MAYBE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS KS AND OK WITH A
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
EASTERN SD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THERE ARE TWO AREAS WE ARE MONITORING FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. THE
FIRST WILL BE UP ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING NW KS. THE SECOND
AREA WILL BE THE ONE TO AFFECT MORE OF THE CWA AND IS ALREADY
STARTING TO PLAY OUT ITS HAND. THIS WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO ROLL
OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF SE CO AND ALSO FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
FORM AS 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP. THIS LOOKS TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA OR JUST TO THE SW.
AREAS WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT BEFORE 06Z WITH THIS
AREA TRANSITIONING EAST LATE TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR...EVEN
ABOVE 1 KM...WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VALUES IN THE
40-50KT RANGE. MEANWHILE...ELEVATED CAPES WILL BE IN THE
1,500-2,500J/KG RANGE WHICH WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE STORMS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE UPPER END
WITH 60 MPH WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH A TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST SAT MORNING
WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY SOUTH. BY 18Z SAT THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXTEND
FROM THE OK PANHANDLE INTO EAST-CENTRAL KS AND WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH. SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE TIED TO THIS FRONT WHICH
WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO
FEEL A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY FROM SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A MORE ROBUST WAVE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN AND OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
KS/OK FOR SUN NIGHT AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MON. AFTER
TONIGHT...THE SUN NIGHT-MON TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE
AT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
IT LOOKS LIKE A PATTERN CHANGE WILL SLOWLY TAKE PLACE AS WE HEAD
INTO LATER IN THE WEEK. THE SHARP WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS MON
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUE...LEAVING
MOST OF THE AREA UNDER SUBSIDENCE. THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR WED NIGHT WHICH
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BY FRI THE
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO NOSE-IN FROM
THE SW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RISING MID TEMPS AND A DECREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A CLASSIC SUMMER PATTERN.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...WITH RUC/ARW-EAST THE
CURRENTLY FAVORED MODELS. ARW BEST DEPICTED THE RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...BUT APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THAT PRECIPITATION PERSISTING AND
GROWING UPSCALE. RUC HAS PICKED UP ON STRONGER SYNOPTIC WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...AND SHOULD KNOW FAIRLY SOON WHETHER IT IS ON
TRACK BRINGING DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION EN MASSE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. COLD POOL EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS AND UNCLEAR HOW MUCH IT WILL RECOVER PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF
WESTERN KS STORMS. ANTICIPATE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MVFR FOG IN AREAS THAT CLEAR IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND PRECIPITATION...AND VFR CEILINGS ON SAT AS 850MB MOISTURE
LINGERS IN CYCLONIC FLOW. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 66 83 63 79 / 80 50 30 30
HUTCHINSON 65 81 61 77 / 80 40 20 30
NEWTON 65 81 62 78 / 70 40 20 20
ELDORADO 66 80 62 78 / 70 60 30 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 67 83 64 79 / 80 60 50 30
RUSSELL 63 78 59 74 / 50 40 20 30
GREAT BEND 64 79 61 74 / 70 40 20 30
SALINA 64 80 61 78 / 50 50 20 20
MCPHERSON 65 81 61 77 / 70 40 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 67 82 65 79 / 80 80 50 20
CHANUTE 67 80 62 79 / 80 80 30 20
IOLA 67 80 62 78 / 80 80 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 67 81 63 79 / 80 80 40 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KSZ069>072-093>096-
098>100.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
541 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS EAST COLORADO. CONVECTION
IS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. SO
FAR...THE MAIN THREATS HAVE BEEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 60 MPH WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH
THE STORMS MOVING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WE HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS EARLIER OVER
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.
ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS...WIDESPREAD CAPE OF 1500+ J/KG AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE LINE. 0-3 KM HELICITY AND SURFACE VORTICITY INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME WEAK...SHORT LIVE TORNADOES SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. OVERALL...LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING THAT A LARGE...SLOW MOVING SEVERE MCS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FLAGLER COLORADO TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. THESE AREAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR AND 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS INTO AN AXIS
OF INSTABILITY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS ARE
APPROACHING 60 DEGREES. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND MOVE EAST OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEBRASKA AND INTO COLORADO AND KANSAS SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE
WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON A TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING EAST OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN ITS
WAKE.
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE FA BY SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
AND FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE FRONT IN PROXIMITY TO THE
SOUTHERN FA. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
EVENING WITH SOME SILENT POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST FA. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING. PLAN TO KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER
THE FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF WYOMING.
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST FA. INSTABILITY DROPS
OFF IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE THE INTERSTATE. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR 70 WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S MONDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRECEDE A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
RESUMING. A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WILL MODERATE TO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHTS. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP WITHIN FIRST 6 HOURS TO PIN
DOWN MOST SEVERE AVIATION CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS OVER
50 KTS AND SOME HAIL ARE LIKELY AT TAF SITES WITH THE LINE MOVING
THROUGH. BEHIND THE LINE...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH. WITH A
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...
ANTICIPATE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN.
VISIBILITIES ARE IN DOUBT DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS BUT FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED MVFR VISIBILITIES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-
041-042.
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ091-092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
458 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 458 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
WATCHING THE STORMS OVER EAST COLORADO CLOSELY AT THE PRESENT
TIME. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF 2000+ J/KG OF
SURFACE CAPE WITH LITTLE CINH. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-65 KNOTS
WAS PRESENT IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY. LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE DWINDLING. HOWEVER...THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON ANOTHER
LARGE MCS DEVELOPING OUT OF THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT THE PRESENT
TIME IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
KEEPING THIS MCS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. WITH THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PROJECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT...IT IS HARD
TO DISCOUNT THE CHANCES OF ANOTHER LARGE MCS MOVING OVER EAST
COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS IF A COLD POOL IS ABLE
TO DEVELOP/ORGANIZE WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
LIMON AND DENVER COLORADO.
WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO LAST NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. THE TORNADO
THREAT SEEMS A BIT LOWER WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY AT LOWER READINGS AT
THE PRESENT ANALYSIS. MAIN THREATS WOULD AGAIN BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...AM CONCERNED ABOUT
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT.
FORECAST PWATS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED THE 75TH PERCENTILE. WITH
HEAVY RAINS LAST NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS COME IN AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TONIGHT IS MORE CERTAIN
BEFORE THE YES/NO DECISION ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW MOVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO AN AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY...INCREASING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THIS
EVENING...MAKING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN AREA OF STORM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE COLORADO COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FOG IN THE WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE APEX OF THE
WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.
THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY EVENING.
MORE FORCING OCCURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY BUT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS WELL TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
WEAK WAVE SUNDAY BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL COME LATE SUNDAY WITH A
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING. CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO
2000 J/KG FRIDAY EVENING. CAPE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. CAPE ON SATURDAY WILL BE LOW WITH ONLY 100
TO 400 J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. SHEAR VALUES WILL REACH 35KTS IN
THE SOUTHERN FA FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
1.15 TO 1.43 FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. STORM
MOVEMENT FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SLOW WITH H7 WINDS FROM 5 TO 10KTS.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRONGEST
PARAMETERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DROP
OFF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY IN THE
SOUTHERN FA. DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING. POPS WILL BE HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT DECREASING
TO CHANCE SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL INCREASE SOME IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT TROUGH MOVES CLOSE TO THE AREA.
MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
MUCH COOLER READINGS FROM 50 TO 55 CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER AS WELL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM 67 IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 70S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE, ALTHOUGH FLATTENED, WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. HIGH POPS ARE ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND FORCING. HIGH PRESSURE AND RESULTING
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S WARMING TO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM FROM THE MID 70S MONDAY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 04-09Z AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS...BETWEEN
08-14Z...AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND DECREASED VISIBILITY. AFTER 14Z...LOW CLOUDS AND ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1238 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER SE KS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION REMAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE. FOR THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE TWO
AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST WILL BE ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KS-OK
BORDER. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG IT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CONVERGENCE
MAY BE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER SE KS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH LEADS TO MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE. IF A
STORM DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED
CAPE AND SHEAR TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
OVERNIGHT POPS WAS TO DECREASE OVER CENTRAL KS.
LAWSON
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
PROGRESSIVE DERECHO DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WHICH WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE HRRR
AND RAP ARE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TRACK WHICH SUGGESTS
IMPACT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WICHITA METRO LOOKS REASONABLE
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WATCH 226. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MESO/BOWING
SEGMENT. WIND DRIVEN HAIL IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAIL SIZE
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE GOLF BALL OR LESS...THOUGH COULD
STILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IF COINCIDENT
WITH SWATH OF STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRECEDE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE WIND STORM...ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION FEEDER ARM OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MESOSCALE COMPLEX WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW LATER TODAY...SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY RESIDE CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER OR INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER LARGER SCALE MESO-CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH
EPISODAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH DAILY
TRENDS ON PLACEMENT AND MODE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THE PRECEDING
12 TO 24 HOURS.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE DUE TO HIGHER IMPACT AND FOCUS ON SHORT TERM
WEATHER.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT.
LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS EXITED SE KS WITH CLEARING SKIES IN
ITS WAKE. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KS NEAR A SURFACE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
POINT TO INSERT INTO FORECAST. STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF
THE OK-KS BORDER WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO
FAR SOUTHERN KS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING AREAL COVERAGE TO BE AS HIGH AS
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 86 69 83 68 / 60 60 50 80
HUTCHINSON 84 67 82 67 / 80 60 40 80
NEWTON 82 67 81 66 / 80 60 40 80
ELDORADO 82 67 80 67 / 70 60 50 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 69 83 69 / 50 60 50 80
RUSSELL 82 64 82 65 / 80 40 30 70
GREAT BEND 83 65 82 65 / 80 60 40 80
SALINA 82 66 82 66 / 80 30 30 80
MCPHERSON 83 66 81 66 / 90 50 40 80
COFFEYVILLE 85 69 82 69 / 100 60 60 70
CHANUTE 81 68 81 67 / 90 60 50 70
IOLA 80 67 80 67 / 90 60 50 70
PARSONS-KPPF 84 68 82 68 / 100 60 60 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
08Z water vapor shows a shortwave trough moving across the northern
Rockies into the plains. This wave has kicked off convection that
has moved off the higher terrain into western KS. Surface and upper
air obs continue to show a very moist and unstable airmass across
central and eastern KS while profiler data shows a low level jet
beginning to veer around to the south and southwest. Most of the
convective allowing models show this developing MCS moving east
along the instability and moisture axis. This should take the MCS
east southeast along and south of I-70 and this is where the highest
POPs will be in the forecast. Some the of models suggest there could
be bowing segments with the MCS so damaging winds appear to be the
biggest concern. However a discrete storm would also be capable of
some large hail and/or a tornado through the morning hours.
Additionally the models prog PWs increasing to around 2 inches which
is more than 2 standard deviations above normal for early June. So
flash flooding could be a real problem is heavy rainfall last for
more than an hour or so over any given location. This is likely
going to impact the morning commute with most guidance taking the
convection east into MO by noon. The RAP and NAM continue to show
some kind of MCV hanging over the forecast area into the early
afternoon. Because of this will keep some chance POPs through the
afternoon in case additional storms are able to develop since there
is little inhibition to convection present in the models. Models
show weak surface ridging remaining over the forecast area with a
easterly surface wind. This combined with the cloud cover and precip
should keep highs in the middle 70s to near 80s.
For tonight, the surface boundary acting as the focus for convection
is progged to be a little further south of the forecast area.
Therefore the thinking is that the moisture and instability axis
will be shifted a little further south as well and any vort max that
triggers storms off the higher terrain this afternoon should favor a
track across southern KS and northern OK. However there should still
be some elevated instability and plenty of moisture for the chance
that some elevated storms could form along the nose of the low level
jet into central KS. Have kept some chance POPs for this reason.
Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower and middle 60s since
there is no real cold air advection taking place with a mild and
moist airmass in place.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
A longer wave length low amplitude upper level trough will continue
across the southwestern US through Saturday. Minor H5 troughs will
lift east-northeast across the central and southern plains bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period.
A more amplified H5 trough will lift east-northeast across KS Friday
night and into MO by Saturday afternoon. Strong ascent with deep
moisture in place will provide eastern KS with a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday Morning. An MCS
may develop Friday evening across southwest KS and move east-
northeast along and south of I-70. Any forward propagating MCS
will have the potential to bring very heavy rainfall, damaging
outflow winds and large hail within the stronger updrafts. Areas
along and south of interstate 70 may see an inch or two of
rainfall Friday Night into Saturday Morning which may cause
localized flooding.
The main H5 trough embedded within the southern branch of the jet
stream will be kicked eastward across north TX and OK. We may
see a break in the heavy rainfall Saturday night into Sunday, as
the stronger ascent passes south of the CWA.
The next upper level trough will dig southeast out of western Canada
into the central plains on Monday. This upper level trough may bring
another good chance for showers and thunderstorms with potential for
heavy rainfall on Monday as a surface cold front pushes southeast
across eastern KS. The upper level trough will amplify into a closed
upper low as it digs southeast across eastern OK, then the upper low
will lift northeast into the mid MS river valley. Lighter showers
will be possible on the west side of the upper low Monday night
through Tuesday.
We may see another break in our rain chances Tuesday night through
Wednesday.
An upper level trough will dig southeast into the pacific northwest
and stronger westerly mid level flow across the central Rockies
will cause a lee trough to develop across the northern and central
high plains by the middle and end of next week. Deep moisture will
begin to return across the plains and we will see chances for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday night.
High temperatures will be in the lower 80s Friday and Saturday.
We`ll see a slight cool down Sunday and Monday with highs in the
lower to mid 70s. High temperatures will warm back into 80s by mid
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
TAF has a fair amount of uncertainty in it. Expect mainly VFR
conditions through this evening with SCT to BKN clouds developing
in the 3k to 4k foot layer. Could see thunderstorms redevelop
after 20Z and impact TAF sites through around 02Z before
dissipating but coverage is not expected to be widespread at this
time. Any storms would reduce conditions to IFR if moving overhead
of TAF sites. Some guidance suggests IFR cig/vis after 09Z, but
not convinced it will occur at this time. Feel more confident in
restrictions to MVFR conditions but will certainly need to monitor
closely as there is some small potential for those IFR to VLIFR
conditions to materialize.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1147 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER SE KS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION REMAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE. FOR THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE TWO
AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST WILL BE ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KS-OK
BORDER. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG IT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CONVERGENCE
MAY BE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER SE KS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH LEADS TO MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE. IF A
STORM DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED
CAPE AND SHEAR TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
OVERNIGHT POPS WAS TO DECREASE OVER CENTRAL KS.
LAWSON
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
PROGRESSIVE DERECHO DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WHICH WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE HRRR
AND RAP ARE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TRACK WHICH SUGGESTS
IMPACT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WICHITA METRO LOOKS REASONABLE
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WATCH 226. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MESO/BOWING
SEGMENT. WIND DRIVEN HAIL IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAIL SIZE
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE GOLF BALL OR LESS...THOUGH COULD
STILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IF COINCIDENT
WITH SWATH OF STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRECEDE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE WIND STORM...ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION FEEDER ARM OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MESOSCALE COMPLEX WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW LATER TODAY...SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY RESIDE CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER OR INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER LARGER SCALE MESO-CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH
EPISODAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH DAILY
TRENDS ON PLACEMENT AND MODE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THE PRECEDING
12 TO 24 HOURS.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE DUE TO HIGHER IMPACT AND FOCUS ON SHORT TERM
WEATHER.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
CLUSTER OF PROGRESSIVE SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FESTER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO MIDDAY
HOWEVER THE SEVERE RISK WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST FOR A TIME IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH VERY CHAOTIC AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CHANCES FOR RENEWED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY OR
INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 86 69 83 68 / 60 60 50 80
HUTCHINSON 84 67 82 67 / 80 60 40 80
NEWTON 82 67 81 66 / 80 60 40 80
ELDORADO 82 67 80 67 / 70 60 50 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 69 83 69 / 50 60 50 80
RUSSELL 82 64 82 65 / 80 40 30 70
GREAT BEND 83 65 82 65 / 80 60 40 80
SALINA 82 66 82 66 / 80 30 30 80
MCPHERSON 83 66 81 66 / 90 50 40 80
COFFEYVILLE 85 69 82 69 / 100 60 60 70
CHANUTE 81 68 81 67 / 90 60 50 70
IOLA 80 67 80 67 / 90 60 50 70
PARSONS-KPPF 84 68 82 68 / 100 60 60 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
546 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF PROGRESSIVE WIND PRODUCING STORMS AND
SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY WIND DRIVEN...CONTINUE
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF NEAR 75 MPH
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AS WELL AS UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND REPEAT STORM CORES WILL PRODUCE
MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING AS WELL. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS COMPLEX
STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WICHITA
METRO AREA AND PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
KED
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
PROGRESSIVE DERECHO DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WHICH WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE HRRR
AND RAP ARE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TRACK WHICH SUGGESTS
IMPACT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WICHITA METRO LOOKS REASONABLE
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WATCH 226. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MESO/BOWING
SEGMENT. WIND DRIVEN HAIL IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAIL SIZE
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE GOLF BALL OR LESS...THOUGH COULD
STILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IF COINCIDENT
WITH SWATH OF STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRECEDE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE WIND STORM...ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION FEEDER ARM OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MESOSCALE COMPLEX WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW LATER TODAY...SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY RESIDE CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER OR INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER LARGER SCALE MESO-CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH
EPISODAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH DAILY
TRENDS ON PLACEMENT AND MODE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THE PRECEDING
12 TO 24 HOURS.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE DUE TO HIGHER IMPACT AND FOCUS ON SHORT TERM
WEATHER.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
CLUSTER OF PROGRESSIVE SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FESTER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO MIDDAY
HOWEVER THE SEVERE RISK WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST FOR A TIME IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH VERY CHAOTIC AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CHANCES FOR RENEWED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY OR
INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 86 69 83 68 / 70 60 50 80
HUTCHINSON 84 67 82 67 / 80 60 40 80
NEWTON 82 67 81 66 / 90 60 40 80
ELDORADO 82 67 80 67 / 80 60 50 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 69 83 69 / 60 60 50 80
RUSSELL 82 64 82 65 / 80 40 30 70
GREAT BEND 83 65 82 65 / 80 60 40 80
SALINA 82 66 82 66 / 80 30 30 80
MCPHERSON 83 66 81 66 / 90 50 40 80
COFFEYVILLE 85 69 82 69 / 60 60 60 70
CHANUTE 81 68 81 67 / 70 60 50 70
IOLA 80 67 80 67 / 80 60 50 70
PARSONS-KPPF 84 68 82 68 / 70 60 60 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
514 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF PROGRESSIVE WIND PRODUCING STORMS AND
SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY WIND DRIVEN...CONTINUE
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF NEAR 75 MPH
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AS WELL AS UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND REPEAT STORM CORES WILL PRODUCE
MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING AS WELL. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS COMPLEX
STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WICHITA
METRO AREA AND PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
KED
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
PROGRESSIVE DERECHO DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WHICH WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE HRRR
AND RAP ARE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TRACK WHICH SUGGESTS
IMPACT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WICHITA METRO LOOKS REASONABLE
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WATCH 226. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MESO/BOWING
SEGMENT. WIND DRIVEN HAIL IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAIL SIZE
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE GOLF BALL OR LESS...THOUGH COULD
STILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IF COINCIDENT
WITH SWATH OF STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRECEDE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE WIND STORM...ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION FEEDER ARM OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MESOSCALE COMPLEX WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW LATER TODAY...SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY RESIDE CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER OR INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER LARGER SCALE MESO-CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH
EPISODAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH DAILY
TRENDS ON PLACEMENT AND MODE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THE PRECEDING
12 TO 24 HOURS.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE DUE TO HIGHER IMPACT AND FOCUS ON SHORT TERM
WEATHER.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
EXPECTING A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 86 69 83 68 / 70 60 50 80
HUTCHINSON 84 67 82 67 / 80 60 40 80
NEWTON 82 67 81 66 / 90 60 40 80
ELDORADO 82 67 80 67 / 80 60 50 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 69 83 69 / 60 60 50 80
RUSSELL 82 64 82 65 / 80 40 30 70
GREAT BEND 83 65 82 65 / 80 60 40 80
SALINA 82 66 82 66 / 80 30 30 80
MCPHERSON 83 66 81 66 / 90 50 40 80
COFFEYVILLE 85 69 82 69 / 60 60 60 70
CHANUTE 81 68 81 67 / 70 60 50 70
IOLA 80 67 80 67 / 80 60 50 70
PARSONS-KPPF 84 68 82 68 / 70 60 60 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
346 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
08Z water vapor shows a shortwave trough moving across the northern
Rockies into the plains. This wave has kicked off convection that
has moved off the higher terrain into western KS. Surface and upper
air obs continue to show a very moist and unstable airmass across
central and eastern KS while profiler data shows a low level jet
beginning to veer around to the south and southwest. Most of the
convective allowing models show this developing MCS moving east
along the instability and moisture axis. This should take the MCS
east southeast along and south of I-70 and this is where the highest
POPs will be in the forecast. Some the of models suggest there could
be bowing segments with the MCS so damaging winds appear to be the
biggest concern. However a discrete storm would also be capable of
some large hail and/or a tornado through the morning hours.
Additionally the models prog PWs increasing to around 2 inches which
is more than 2 standard deviations above normal for early June. So
flash flooding could be a real problem is heavy rainfall last for
more than an hour or so over any given location. This is likely
going to impact the morning commute with most guidance taking the
convection east into MO by noon. The RAP and NAM continue to show
some kind of MCV hanging over the forecast area into the early
afternoon. Because of this will keep some chance POPs through the
afternoon in case additional storms are able to develop since there
is little inhibition to convection present in the models. Models
show weak surface ridging remaining over the forecast area with a
easterly surface wind. This combined with the cloud cover and precip
should keep highs in the middle 70s to near 80s.
For tonight, the surface boundary acting as the focus for convection
is progged to be a little further south of the forecast area.
Therefore the thinking is that the moisture and instability axis
will be shifted a little further south as well and any vort max that
triggers storms off the higher terrain this afternoon should favor a
track across southern KS and northern OK. However there should still
be some elevated instability and plenty of moisture for the chance
that some elevated storms could form along the nose of the low level
jet into central KS. Have kept some chance POPs for this reason.
Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower and middle 60s since
there is no real cold air advection taking place with a mild and
moist airmass in place.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
A longer wave length low amplitude upper level trough will continue
across the southwestern US through Saturday. Minor H5 troughs will
lift east-northeast across the central and southern plains bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period.
A more amplified H5 trough will lift east-northeast across KS Friday
night and into MO by Saturday afternoon. Strong ascent with deep
moisture in place will provide eastern KS with a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday Morning. An MCS
may develop Friday evening across southwest KS and move east-
northeast along and south of I-70. Any forward propagating MCS
will have the potential to bring very heavy rainfall, damaging
outflow winds and large hail within the stronger updrafts. Areas
along and south of interstate 70 may see an inch or two of
rainfall Friday Night into Saturday Morning which may cause
localized flooding.
The main H5 trough embedded within the southern branch of the jet
stream will be kicked eastward across north TX and OK. We may
see a break in the heavy rainfall Saturday night into Sunday, as
the stronger ascent passes south of the CWA.
The next upper level trough will dig southeast out of western Canada
into the central plains on Monday. This upper level trough may bring
another good chance for showers and thunderstorms with potential for
heavy rainfall on Monday as a surface cold front pushes southeast
across eastern KS. The upper level trough will amplify into a closed
upper low as it digs southeast across eastern OK, then the upper low
will lift northeast into the mid MS river valley. Lighter showers
will be possible on the west side of the upper low Monday night
through Tuesday.
We may see another break in our rain chances Tuesday night through
Wednesday.
An upper level trough will dig southeast into the pacific northwest
and stronger westerly mid level flow across the central Rockies
will cause a lee trough to develop across the northern and central
high plains by the middle and end of next week. Deep moisture will
begin to return across the plains and we will see chances for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday night.
High temperatures will be in the lower 80s Friday and Saturday.
We`ll see a slight cool down Sunday and Monday with highs in the
lower to mid 70s. High temperatures will warm back into 80s by mid
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
Thunderstorms become increasingly likely from 09Z through 13Z.
There is some potential for hail with these storms, but damaging
wind gusts may be the greatest hazard. As of now, strongest winds
seem likely to pass south of TAF sites, but there is some
potential for the storm to track farther north...closer to TAF
sites. Expect storms to exit the area by 18Z if not earlier with
MVFR probably holding on after the storms exit.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
PROGRESSIVE DERECHO DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WHICH WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE HRRR
AND RAP ARE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TRACK WHICH SUGGESTS
IMPACT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WICHITA METRO LOOKS REASONABLE
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WATCH 226. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MESO/BOWING
SEGMENT. WIND DRIVEN HAIL IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAIL SIZE
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE GOLF BALL OR LESS...THOUGH COULD
STILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IF COINCIDENT
WITH SWATH OF STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRECEDE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE WIND STORM...ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION FEEDER ARM OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MESOSCALE COMPLEX WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW LATER TODAY...SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY RESIDE CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER OR INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER LARGER SCALE MESO-CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH
EPISODAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH DAILY
TRENDS ON PLACEMENT AND MODE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THE PRECEDING
12 TO 24 HOURS.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE DUE TO HIGHER IMPACT AND FOCUS ON SHORT TERM
WEATHER.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
EXPECTING A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 86 69 83 68 / 70 60 50 80
HUTCHINSON 84 67 82 67 / 80 60 40 80
NEWTON 82 67 81 66 / 80 60 40 80
ELDORADO 82 67 80 67 / 70 60 50 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 69 83 69 / 60 60 50 80
RUSSELL 82 64 82 65 / 70 40 30 70
GREAT BEND 83 65 82 65 / 70 60 40 80
SALINA 82 66 82 66 / 70 30 30 80
MCPHERSON 83 66 81 66 / 80 50 40 80
COFFEYVILLE 85 69 82 69 / 60 60 60 70
CHANUTE 81 68 81 67 / 70 60 50 70
IOLA 80 67 80 67 / 70 60 50 70
PARSONS-KPPF 84 68 82 68 / 70 60 60 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SETTLED JUST SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND SHOULD MAKE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS BEFORE STARTING TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND MAINLY THE FAR SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY...WITH RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA. TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT THE CU IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND
MIX OUT A BIT AND MID TO UPPER 70S STILL APPEAR REACHABLE BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP ARE ALREADY
OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE DRIER AIR AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW HAS PRESSED INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS KEEPING THE FOG TO A MINIMUM
NORTH OF JKL WHILE TO THE SOUTH THE CLOUD COVER KEPT THE FOG THERE AT
BAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ARE DRIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THESE NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS AND TO DROP THE
FOG. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS. UPDATED ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS IS HELPING A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY. THE DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT
TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THINGS REMAIN STEAMY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NEARLY THE SAME...IN
THE UPPER 60S. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE CWA...AS WELL...SO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED WITH THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THICK MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA...DO EXPECT ENOUGH THINNING LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG...MAINLY
IN THE VALLEYS...THROUGH DAWN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A DEEP LOW SPINNING NORTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE STRONG RIDGING IS BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FAST FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING ALONG FROM WEST TO EAST. THE STRONGEST WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AND HAS PUSHED HEIGHTS DOWN OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...EVEN AS HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...A
COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND DIP THEM TEMPORARILY.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A
LEAN ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIFTING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CWA TO KEEP A DECENT...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND THEN NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COME BACK
NORTHEAST. LATER TONIGHT...DO ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AROUND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE MODERATES OUR
RECENT WARMTH...THOUGH TODAY WILL BE THE NICER DAY DUE TO MOST SEEING
MUCH DRIER HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM AND TONIGHT FOR SOME SPECIFIC
POINTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...SIMILARLY LOW IN THE NORTH...
THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE LONG TERM MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED.
THE CONSENSUS PATTERN IS FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS INITIAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS IT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD. IT
THEN APPEARS THAT SLUGGISH EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TO BEGIN
THE NEW WORK WEEK. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL
FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING RECURRING RAIN
CHANCES TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS SERIES
OF WAVES EXIT THE AREA...THE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. INITIAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL WAVES. THERE LOOKS TO A BRIEF DECREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SERIES OF
FRONTAL WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT HIGH PROBABILITY OF
RAIN WILL ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONTAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...MOIST BUT WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LINGERING SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...ALBEIT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO AT
BEST SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES FOR ALL BUT THE FIRST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT AROUND 80 DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY...WHEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH WELL
INTO THE 80S AREA WIDE...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AND
SO FAR HAS ONLY OCCURRED NORTH OF I 64. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MVFR RANGE...AND EVENTUALLY THE INTO VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST 5 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA AND
DRY AIR FILTERS IN. A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LOZ AND
SME DURING THE FIRST 5 HOUR OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 6Z TO 18Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION SOME MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR OR LOWER FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. OTHER THAN THE FIRST 5 HOURS AND THE WINDOW WHERE
FOG IS POSSIBLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
333 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The main focus for the short term portion of the forecast package
is on precipitation chances across the southern and southwestern
portion of the forecast area through Friday night.
Keeping an eye on the diminishing precipitation shield north of the
convective band currently pushing east southeast through southeast
Missouri and northeast Arkansas. Not currently expecting that area
of rainfall to make it into our southwest counties, and the HRRR as
well as the RAP depict a similar scenario. However, it does bear
some watching.
Upper level ridging over the south-central portion of the U.S. will
be in place for much of the period. A series of upper waves are
progged to ride the top of the ridge into the Ohio Valley. The first
of which arrives tonight into Friday. The ECMWF and NAM bring the
effects of the wave into the southwest corner of the forecast area
in the way of increased precipitation chances, while the GFS leaves
the entire region dry until the next wave arrives during the
long-term portion of the forecast on Saturday afternoon/evening.
Decided to keep pops from previous forecast remaining in the
slight/low chance pop category. Near normal temperatures are
expected in most areas with highs in the low to middle 80s and lows
ranging 5 degrees either side of 60.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Upper ridging remains located over the south-central portion of
the U.S. to begin the long term period. This will continue with a
series of upper waves to traverse the top of the ridge into the
Ohio River Valley. A higher amplitude trough will approach the
forecast area to begin the work week on Monday as the trough digs
into the Mississippi River Valley. ECMWF and GFS are in fairly
good agreement with this feature, leading to a fairly active
extended timeframe.
Stuck close to regional initialization for POPs...with the highest
POPs on Saturday night and Sunday as the first of many upper
troughs push through the area. Expect shower and thunderstorm
chances to persist through mid-week as remainder of the upper
disturbances move through the area. Below normal highs with near
normal lows look to be the rule as we head into this unsettled
portion of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
KSDF and KLEX will become VFR early and remain that way through
the period...while KBWG takes longer to improve to VFR.
High pressure will continue to bring drier air to the region. This
will allow KSDF and KLEX to improve to VFR by valid time or
shortly thereafter. With dry air in place these sites will remain
VFR with scattered cumulus giving way to some high clouds this
evening.
Thunderstorm complex across Missouri will dive southeast this
afternoon and should stay south of KBWG. Drier air will have a
harder time working in to this site...but with some daytime
heating expect a slow lift of ceilings into VFR category. However
expect these lower VFR ceilings to persist through the remainder
of the period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........MRD
Long Term.........MRD
Aviation..........50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
105 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SETTLED JUST SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND SHOULD MAKE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS BEFORE STARTING TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND MAINLY THE FAR SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY...WITH RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA. TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT THE CU IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND
MIX OUT A BIT AND MID TO UPPER 70S STILL APPEAR REACHABLE BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP ARE ALREADY
OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE DRIER AIR AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW HAS PRESSED INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS KEEPING THE FOG TO A MINIMUM
NORTH OF JKL WHILE TO THE SOUTH THE CLOUD COVER KEPT THE FOG THERE AT
BAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ARE DRIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THESE NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS AND TO DROP THE
FOG. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS. UPDATED ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS IS HELPING A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY. THE DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT
TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THINGS REMAIN STEAMY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NEARLY THE SAME...IN
THE UPPER 60S. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE CWA...AS WELL...SO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED WITH THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THICK MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA...DO EXPECT ENOUGH THINNING LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG...MAINLY
IN THE VALLEYS...THROUGH DAWN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A DEEP LOW SPINNING NORTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE STRONG RIDGING IS BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FAST FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING ALONG FROM WEST TO EAST. THE STRONGEST WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AND HAS PUSHED HEIGHTS DOWN OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...EVEN AS HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...A
COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND DIP THEM TEMPORARILY.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A
LEAN ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIFTING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CWA TO KEEP A DECENT...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND THEN NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COME BACK
NORTHEAST. LATER TONIGHT...DO ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AROUND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE MODERATES OUR
RECENT WARMTH...THOUGH TODAY WILL BE THE NICER DAY DUE TO MOST SEEING
MUCH DRIER HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM AND TONIGHT FOR SOME SPECIFIC
POINTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...SIMILARLY LOW IN THE NORTH...
THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM WESTERN KY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN TN. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN
UPTICK IN THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR 0Z
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ARE STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING ANY KIND OF AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...STUCK BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CONUS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER CENTRAL KY. THIS WILL ALSO WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SUPPRESSED AND
WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE ACROSS KENTUCKY. INSTEAD...THESE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NEARLY WEST TO EAST AND STRAIGHT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IF ALL HOLDS TRUE...THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL FINALLY START MOVING EASTWARD AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING SOME DEEPER TROUGHING TO TAKE FORM OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...AND THEN EVENTUALLY THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID
WEEK. HOWEVER...BY THIS POINT...MODELS REALLY START TO LOSE
AGREEMENT...SO WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE GIVEN ALL BLEND
SOLUTIONS.
THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD START TO IMPACT KENTUCKY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT WITH
ONLY CHANCE TSRA WORDING. THOUGH WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE
BETTER LIFT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME PINPOINTING ANY EXACT TIMING OF ENTRANCE OR EXIT
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD...BUT DO EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO
BE CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO IF THERE IS A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...IT WILL BE BRIEF.
A TREND WILL DEVELOP. THE SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST TO WEST
THROUGH KY...A BRIEF LULL WILL OCCUR...AND YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS TUESDAY SYSTEM CORRELATES WITH THE DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD.
USUALLY AN UPTICK IN FORCING WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM AS IT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SO OUT OF SYNC AT THIS POINT THAT NONE OF THEM
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...INSTABILITY...AND TIMING ARE ALL UP IN THE AIR
STILL AT THIS POINT UNTIL MODELS COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT. IF
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER
THE REGION...WITH CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL PUT QPF
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TUESDAY
AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AND
SO FAR HAS ONLY OCCURRED NORTH OF I 64. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MVFR RANGE...AND EVENTUALLY THE INTO VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST 5 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA AND
DRY AIR FILTERS IN. A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LOZ AND
SME DURING THE FIRST 5 HOUR OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 6Z TO 18Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION SOME MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR OR LOWER FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. OTHER THAN THE FIRST 5 HOURS AND THE WINDOW WHERE
FOG IS POSSIBLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
800 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE DRIER AIR AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW HAS PRESSED INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS KEEPING THE FOG TO A MINIMUM
NORTH OF JKL WHILE TO THE SOUTH THE CLOUD COVER KEPT THE FOG THERE AT
BAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ARE DRIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THESE NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS AND TO DROP THE
FOG. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS. UPDATED ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS IS HELPING A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY. THE DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT
TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THINGS REMAIN STEAMY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NEARLY THE SAME...IN
THE UPPER 60S. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE CWA...AS WELL...SO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED WITH THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THICK MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA...DO EXPECT ENOUGH THINNING LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG...MAINLY
IN THE VALLEYS...THROUGH DAWN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A DEEP LOW SPINNING NORTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE STRONG RIDGING IS BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FAST FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING ALONG FROM WEST TO EAST. THE STRONGEST WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AND HAS PUSHED HEIGHTS DOWN OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...EVEN AS HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...A
COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND DIP THEM TEMPORARILY.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A
LEAN ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIFTING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CWA TO KEEP A DECENT...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND THEN NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COME BACK
NORTHEAST. LATER TONIGHT...DO ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AROUND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE MODERATES OUR
RECENT WARMTH...THOUGH TODAY WILL BE THE NICER DAY DUE TO MOST SEEING
MUCH DRIER HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM AND TONIGHT FOR SOME SPECIFIC
POINTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...SIMILARLY LOW IN THE NORTH...
THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM WESTERN KY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN TN. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN
UPTICK IN THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR 0Z
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ARE STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING ANY KIND OF AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...STUCK BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CONUS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER CENTRAL KY. THIS WILL ALSO WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SUPPRESSED AND
WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE ACROSS KENTUCKY. INSTEAD...THESE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NEARLY WEST TO EAST AND STRAIGHT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IF ALL HOLDS TRUE...THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL FINALLY START MOVING EASTWARD AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING SOME DEEPER TROUGHING TO TAKE FORM OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...AND THEN EVENTUALLY THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID
WEEK. HOWEVER...BY THIS POINT...MODELS REALLY START TO LOSE
AGREEMENT...SO WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE GIVEN ALL BLEND
SOLUTIONS.
THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD START TO IMPACT KENTUCKY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT WITH
ONLY CHANCE TSRA WORDING. THOUGH WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE
BETTER LIFT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME PINPOINTING ANY EXACT TIMING OF ENTRANCE OR EXIT
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD...BUT DO EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO
BE CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO IF THERE IS A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...IT WILL BE BRIEF.
A TREND WILL DEVELOP. THE SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST TO WEST
THROUGH KY...A BRIEF LULL WILL OCCUR...AND YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS TUESDAY SYSTEM CORRELATES WITH THE DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD.
USUALLY AN UPTICK IN FORCING WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM AS IT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SO OUT OF SYNC AT THIS POINT THAT NONE OF THEM
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...INSTABILITY...AND TIMING ARE ALL UP IN THE AIR
STILL AT THIS POINT UNTIL MODELS COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT. IF
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER
THE REGION...WITH CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL PUT QPF
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TUESDAY
AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE TIMED THESE
OUT OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...WITH GOOD
AVN WX CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRAY STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
644 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 610 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Updated the grids early this morning mainly to account for the
latest radar trends. As expected, showers and perhaps an isolated
rumble of thunder continue to develop along the cold front as it
slowly sags south across the region. Its progress has slowed a bit
the past couple of hours, thus have lingered pops a bit longer than
the previous forecast across east-central KY. Otherwise, the rest
of the forecast looks on track.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The synoptic pattern early this morning features a persistent
upper-level ridge centered over the south-central CONUS. Several
"ridge-riding" waves were rotating around this feature, one of which
pushed through earlier this evening. Another of these waves
(currently across the western High Plains) will pass through the
region late tonight into Friday.
Convection has largely dissipated across much of the region early
this morning as a conglomeration of cold pools has shunted the
better instability well south into TN. However, the surface front
still remains across south-central KY and a few showers continue to
develop along it from time to time. Therefore, will continue with
20-30 pops into the morning hours along this front (especially since
the latest HRRR shows some shower redevelopment along the front
through the early morning hours).
The front will clear southern KY by the late morning hours, ending
the precipitation chances. Cooler and drier air will filter in
today on ENE winds, which will make it feel quite comfortable
compared to recent days. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and
lower 80s with much lower humidity values.
Uncertainty begins to creep into the forecast tonight into Friday,
as guidance is struggling a bit with the placement of the next
approaching trough rounding the upper-level ridge. The
GEM/ECMWF/NAM all depict precipitation returning back north into
southern KY as forcing from this wave overspreads the area and the
surface front lifts back north. The GFS is a much drier solution,
keeping the precip southwest of the CWA. Given the effective
boundary is currently being driven south by ongoing convection and
the fact that convection will likely redevelop today/tonight across
portions of western TN, struggle to believe the front will be able
to lift back to the north all that much. Guidance typically
overdoes the northern extent of convection in these summer patterns,
and think that is likely the case here. Therefore, will leave only
slight chance to chance wording in southern KY late tonight into
Friday, favoring the drier GFS solution.
Lows tonight will vary from the middle 50s across the Northern
Bluegrass (given partly cloudy skies and light winds) to the middle
60s across southern KY where clouds will be more likely. Highs on
Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, likely a couple
degrees warmer than expected highs today.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Shortwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure centered over Lake
Erie should make for a pleasant start to the weekend, and keep the
precip mostly suppressed to our south and west over the Tennessee
Valley. Without the Gulf open for business, expect temps just on the
low end of climo and dewpoints just either side of 60. This is the
time of year when GFS MOS max temps end up 3-4 degrees warmer than
NAM MOS across the board, and favoring the NAM is usually the way to
go.
Forecast confidence decreases substantially as we head into next
week as the pattern becomes fairly progressive. GFS and ECMWF agree
on a decent mid-level wave crossing the Ohio Valley Sunday, which
supports the highest POPs Sat night/Sunday, but it does have the
look of convective feedback. Therefore will limit POP to high-end
chance.
Pattern remains progressive through the rest of the long term, with
generally weak ridging over the Southwest, and weak trofiness over
most of the eastern CONUS. Periodic disturbances will traverse the
area and keep the weather a bit unsettled, but available moisture
will be the limiting factor. Minimal change to the going forecast
with 20-30 POPs throughout, and temps just either side of normal.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The surface cold front continues to make slow southward progress,
and will be sliding through KBWG in the next hour or two. Moisture
pooling along this front along with light winds have allowed KBWG
cigs to drop into the high-end IFR category. This will likely
persist for the next hour or two, before the front pushes through
and cigs rise a bit. Further north, post frontal cigs of
FL015-FL025 continue to affect KSDF and KLEX. These cigs will last
for a couple more hours this morning, before all sites go VFR by
mid-morning. ENE winds will continue through the day into tonight.
A small chance for a few showers will return to KBWG tonight, but
uncertainty in timing and coverage precludes mention attm.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
610 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 610 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Updated the grids early this morning mainly to account for the
latest radar trends. As expected, showers and perhaps an isolated
rumble of thunder continue to develop along the cold front as it
slowly sags south across the region. Its progress has slowed a bit
the past couple of hours, thus have lingered pops a bit longer than
the previous forecast across east-central KY. Otherwise, the rest
of the forecast looks on track.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The synoptic pattern early this morning features a persistent
upper-level ridge centered over the south-central CONUS. Several
"ridge-riding" waves were rotating around this feature, one of which
pushed through earlier this evening. Another of these waves
(currently across the western High Plains) will pass through the
region late tonight into Friday.
Convection has largely dissipated across much of the region early
this morning as a conglomeration of cold pools has shunted the
better instability well south into TN. However, the surface front
still remains across south-central KY and a few showers continue to
develop along it from time to time. Therefore, will continue with
20-30 pops into the morning hours along this front (especially since
the latest HRRR shows some shower redevelopment along the front
through the early morning hours).
The front will clear southern KY by the late morning hours, ending
the precipitation chances. Cooler and drier air will filter in
today on ENE winds, which will make it feel quite comfortable
compared to recent days. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and
lower 80s with much lower humidity values.
Uncertainty begins to creep into the forecast tonight into Friday,
as guidance is struggling a bit with the placement of the next
approaching trough rounding the upper-level ridge. The
GEM/ECMWF/NAM all depict precipitation returning back north into
southern KY as forcing from this wave overspreads the area and the
surface front lifts back north. The GFS is a much drier solution,
keeping the precip southwest of the CWA. Given the effective
boundary is currently being driven south by ongoing convection and
the fact that convection will likely redevelop today/tonight across
portions of western TN, struggle to believe the front will be able
to lift back to the north all that much. Guidance typically
overdoes the northern extent of convection in these summer patterns,
and think that is likely the case here. Therefore, will leave only
slight chance to chance wording in southern KY late tonight into
Friday, favoring the drier GFS solution.
Lows tonight will vary from the middle 50s across the Northern
Bluegrass (given partly cloudy skies and light winds) to the middle
60s across southern KY where clouds will be more likely. Highs on
Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, likely a couple
degrees warmer than expected highs today.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Shortwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure centered over Lake
Erie should make for a pleasant start to the weekend, and keep the
precip mostly suppressed to our south and west over the Tennessee
Valley. Without the Gulf open for business, expect temps just on the
low end of climo and dewpoints just either side of 60. This is the
time of year when GFS MOS max temps end up 3-4 degrees warmer than
NAM MOS across the board, and favoring the NAM is usually the way to
go.
Forecast confidence decreases substantially as we head into next
week as the pattern becomes fairly progressive. GFS and ECMWF agree
on a decent mid-level wave crossing the Ohio Valley Sunday, which
supports the highest POPs Sat night/Sunday, but it does have the
look of convective feedback. Therefore will limit POP to high-end
chance.
Pattern remains progressive through the rest of the long term, with
generally weak ridging over the Southwest, and weak trofiness over
most of the eastern CONUS. Periodic disturbances will traverse the
area and keep the weather a bit unsettled, but available moisture
will be the limiting factor. Minimal change to the going forecast
with 20-30 POPs throughout, and temps just either side of normal.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The advertised surface cold front continues to sag south tonight,
and it currently bisects central KY. This means that convection has
ended at KSDF and KLEX. Additional convection continues to develop
along this front and may impact KBWG, but will wait until just
before TAF issuance to decide whether to include any precip mention
there as this convection may pass just to the west of the terminal.
Otherwise, post-frontal low cigs continue to slide south across
southern IN. These cigs will be right around fuel-alternate
thresholds, in the FL015-FL025 range. Could also see some patchy
light fog at KLEX and KBWG, but the winds staying up and the
widespread cloud cover should help keep vsbys mainly VFR.
Otherwise, Thursday will be a low-impact aviation day with VFR
conditions expected. Winds will be out of the ENE, with any lower
cigs scattering out by the mid-morning hours.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS IS HELPING A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY. THE DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT
TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THINGS REMAIN STEAMY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NEARLY THE SAME...IN
THE UPPER 60S. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE CWA...AS WELL...SO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED WITH THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THICK MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA...DO EXPECT ENOUGH THINNING LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG...MAINLY
IN THE VALLEYS...THROUGH DAWN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A DEEP LOW SPINNING NORTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE STRONG RIDGING IS BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FAST FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING ALONG FROM WEST TO EAST. THE STRONGEST WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AND HAS PUSHED HEIGHTS DOWN OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...EVEN AS HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...A
COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND DIP THEM TEMPORARILY.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A
LEAN ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIFTING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CWA TO KEEP A DECENT...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND THEN NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COME BACK
NORTHEAST. LATER TONIGHT...DO ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AROUND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE MODERATES OUR
RECENT WARMTH...THOUGH TODAY WILL BE THE NICER DAY DUE TO MOST SEEING
MUCH DRIER HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM AND TONIGHT FOR SOME SPECIFIC
POINTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...SIMILARLY LOW IN THE NORTH...
THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM WESTERN KY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN TN. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN
UPTICK IN THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR 0Z
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ARE STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING ANY KIND OF AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...STUCK BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CONUS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER CENTRAL KY. THIS WILL ALSO WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SUPPRESSED AND
WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE ACROSS KENTUCKY. INSTEAD...THESE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NEARLY WEST TO EAST AND STRAIGHT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IF ALL HOLDS TRUE...THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL FINALLY START MOVING EASTWARD AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING SOME DEEPER TROUGHING TO TAKE FORM OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...AND THEN EVENTUALLY THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID
WEEK. HOWEVER...BY THIS POINT...MODELS REALLY START TO LOSE
AGREEMENT...SO WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE GIVEN ALL BLEND
SOLUTIONS.
THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD START TO IMPACT KENTUCKY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT WITH
ONLY CHANCE TSRA WORDING. THOUGH WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE
BETTER LIFT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME PINPOINTING ANY EXACT TIMING OF ENTRANCE OR EXIT
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD...BUT DO EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO
BE CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO IF THERE IS A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...IT WILL BE BRIEF.
A TREND WILL DEVELOP. THE SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST TO WEST
THROUGH KY...A BRIEF LULL WILL OCCUR...AND YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS TUESDAY SYSTEM CORRELATES WITH THE DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD.
USUALLY AN UPTICK IN FORCING WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM AS IT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SO OUT OF SYNC AT THIS POINT THAT NONE OF THEM
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...INSTABILITY...AND TIMING ARE ALL UP IN THE AIR
STILL AT THIS POINT UNTIL MODELS COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT. IF
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER
THE REGION...WITH CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL PUT QPF
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TUESDAY
AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAINLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT THROUGH
THE AREA INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE TIMED THESE FOR JKL AND SJS
WITH VCTS/VCSH USED AT LOZ AND SME. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE
LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IN SOME VALLEYS AND SOME PREVAILING MVFR FOG AT
MOST AIRPORT SITES FOR A TIME INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FOG
LIFTS AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FROM 12Z TO 14Z...WITH GOOD AVN WX
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STRAY STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
321 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The synoptic pattern early this morning features a persistent
upper-level ridge centered over the south-central CONUS. Several
"ridge-riding" waves were rotating around this feature, one of which
pushed through earlier this evening. Another of these waves
(currently across the western High Plains) will pass through the
region late tonight into Friday.
Convection has largely dissipated across much of the region early
this morning as a conglomeration of cold pools has shunted the
better instability well south into TN. However, the surface front
still remains across south-central KY and a few showers continue to
develop along it from time to time. Therefore, will continue with
20-30 pops into the morning hours along this front (especially since
the latest HRRR shows some shower redevelopment along the front
through the early morning hours).
The front will clear southern KY by the late morning hours, ending
the precipitation chances. Cooler and drier air will filter in
today on ENE winds, which will make it feel quite comfortable
compared to recent days. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and
lower 80s with much lower humidity values.
Uncertainty begins to creep into the forecast tonight into Friday,
as guidance is struggling a bit with the placement of the next
approaching trough rounding the upper-level ridge. The
GEM/ECMWF/NAM all depict precipitation returning back north into
southern KY as forcing from this wave overspreads the area and the
surface front lifts back north. The GFS is a much drier solution,
keeping the precip southwest of the CWA. Given the effective
boundary is currently being driven south by ongoing convection and
the fact that convection will likely redevelop today/tonight across
portions of western TN, struggle to believe the front will be able
to lift back to the north all that much. Guidance typically
overdoes the northern extent of convection in these summer patterns,
and think that is likely the case here. Therefore, will leave only
slight chance to chance wording in southern KY late tonight into
Friday, favoring the drier GFS solution.
Lows tonight will vary from the middle 50s across the Northern
Bluegrass (given partly cloudy skies and light winds) to the middle
60s across southern KY where clouds will be more likely. Highs on
Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, likely a couple
degrees warmer than expected highs today.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Shortwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure centered over Lake
Erie should make for a pleasant start to the weekend, and keep the
precip mostly suppressed to our south and west over the Tennessee
Valley. Without the Gulf open for business, expect temps just on the
low end of climo and dewpoints just either side of 60. This is the
time of year when GFS MOS max temps end up 3-4 degrees warmer than
NAM MOS across the board, and favoring the NAM is usually the way to
go.
Forecast confidence decreases substantially as we head into next
week as the pattern becomes fairly progressive. GFS and ECMWF agree
on a decent mid-level wave crossing the Ohio Valley Sunday, which
supports the highest POPs Sat night/Sunday, but it does have the
look of convective feedback. Therefore will limit POP to high-end
chance.
Pattern remains progressive through the rest of the long term, with
generally weak ridging over the Southwest, and weak trofiness over
most of the eastern CONUS. Periodic disturbances will traverse the
area and keep the weather a bit unsettled, but available moisture
will be the limiting factor. Minimal change to the going forecast
with 20-30 POPs throughout, and temps just either side of normal.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The advertised surface cold front continues to sag south tonight,
and it currently bisects central KY. This means that convection has
ended at KSDF and KLEX. Additional convection continues to develop
along this front and may impact KBWG, but will wait until just
before TAF issuance to decide whether to include any precip mention
there as this convection may pass just to the west of the terminal.
Otherwise, post-frontal low cigs continue to slide south across
southern IN. These cigs will be right around fuel-alternate
thresholds, in the FL015-FL025 range. Could also see some patchy
light fog at KLEX and KBWG, but the winds staying up and the
widespread cloud cover should help keep vsbys mainly VFR.
Otherwise, Thursday will be a low-impact aviation day with VFR
conditions expected. Winds will be out of the ENE, with any lower
cigs scattering out by the mid-morning hours.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1008 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY OVERNIGHT. A
WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
AND CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE WAS TO TM XTND SHWRS 2 TO 3 HRS
FURTHER OUT INTO THE OVRNGT OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA BASED ON LATEST
RADAR REF IMAGERY WHICH STILL SHOWS SCT LIGHTER SHWRS MOVG SSW
FROM NW NB PROV INTO INTO NRN AND ERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. LATEST
AVAILABLE HRRR HRLY MODEL SIM RADAR REF ALSO BACKS THIS
TREND...BUT MAY BE HOLDING ON TO SHWRS TO LONG AFT 06Z. WINDS CONT
TO BE FAIRLY BREEZY FROM THE NW OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA LATE THIS
EVE...BUT HAVE SLACKENED OVR WRN INTERIOR AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE
REGION. DUE TO SPEED AND/OR DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION...WE DO NOT SEE
FOG BEING AN ISSUE ANYWHERE WITHIN THE FA LATE TNGT.
OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE OVRNGT TO POSTED LOW TEMPS AT
5 AM WERE UPDATED BASED ON PAST AFTN OBSVD HI TEMPS AND LATEST 9
PM TEMPS.
ORGNL DISC: RAIN AND SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THIS HOUR
WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY, WE EXPECT
THE RAIN TO WIND DOWN AS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING BY THE OVERNIGHT
OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP AND THIS COMBINED
WITH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
FOR SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD
THE REGION. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON UNDER VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER. BOTH CAPE AND MOISTURE LOOK TO BE LIMITED SO CAPPED POPS AT
20 PERCENT AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY ENHANCED WORDING. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
NORTHERN AREAS WITH VALUES REACHING NEAR 80 OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST
LOCALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY FORM NEAR THE COAST BY MORNING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE PEAKS
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY, THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
VERY WARM WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 IN MOST AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. A VERY WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY
SPAWN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM
DAY. HOWEVER, A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN AREA WHERE
THE FRONT WILL BE BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN LATEST RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF...ALMOST
POLAR OPPOSITES. FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES RAN WITH SUPERBLEND THAT
CLOSELY MIRRORED GFS WITH STALLED FRONT ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES
EARLY TUESDAY BEING CLEARED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS BEFORE NEXT FRONT
MAKES APPEARANCE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO SHOWERS
AND OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING HOWEVER
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
VFR SATURDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS WILL INCLUDE ANY LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG, AND ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE COME UP DUE TO A GROUP SWELL AFFECTING THE
WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO THIS EVENING BUT BELOW
SCA LEVELS BEFORE COMING DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WARM AIR OVER THE COOLER WATERS MAY RESULT IN SOME
FOG ACROSS THE WATERS ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNINGS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1005 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY OVERNIGHT. A
WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
AND CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE WAS TO TM XTND SHWRS 2 TO 3 HRS
FURTHER OUT INTO THE OVRNGT OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA BASED ON LATEST
RADAR REF IMAGERY WHICH STILL SHOWS SCT LIGHTER SHWRS MOVG SSW
FROM NW NB PROV INTO INTO NRN AND ERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. LATEST
AVAILABLE HRRR HRLY MODEL SIM RADAR REF ALSO BACKS THIS TREND...BUT
MAY BE HOLDING ON TO SHWRS TO LONG AFT 06Z. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY
TEMPS THRU THE OVRNGT TO POSTED LOW TEMPS AT 5 AM WERE UPDATED
BASED ON PAST AFTN OBSVD HI TEMPS AND LATEST 9 PM TEMPS.
ORGNL DISC: RAIN AND SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THIS HOUR
WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY, WE EXPECT
THE RAIN TO WIND DOWN AS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING BY THE OVERNIGHT
OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP AND THIS COMBINED
WITH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
FOR SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD
THE REGION. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON UNDER VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER. BOTH CAPE AND MOISTURE LOOK TO BE LIMITED SO CAPPED POPS AT
20 PERCENT AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY ENHANCED WORDING. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
NORTHERN AREAS WITH VALUES REACHING NEAR 80 OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST
LOCALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY FORM NEAR THE COAST BY MORNING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE PEAKS
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY, THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
VERY WARM WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 IN MOST AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. A VERY WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY
SPAWN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM
DAY. HOWEVER, A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN AREA WHERE
THE FRONT WILL BE BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN LATEST RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF...ALMOST
POLAR OPPOSITES. FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES RAN WITH SUPERBLEND THAT
CLOSELY MIRRORED GFS WITH STALLED FRONT ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES
EARLY TUESDAY BEING CLEARED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS BEFORE NEXT FRONT
MAKES APPEARANCE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO SHOWERS
AND OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING HOWEVER
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
VFR SATURDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS WILL INCLUDE ANY LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG, AND ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE COME UP DUE TO A GROUP SWELL AFFECTING THE
WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO THIS EVENING BUT BELOW
SCA LEVELS BEFORE COMING DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WARM AIR OVER THE COOLER WATERS MAY RESULT IN SOME
FOG ACROSS THE WATERS ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNINGS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
935 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARM DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WAVER AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO EXTEND POPS A COUPLE MORE
HOURS FOR CONVECTION STILL RESPONDING TO SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OXFORD AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS AS SHOWERS ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO
CENTRAL MAINE AND THE MIDCOAST REGION AND AWAY FROM IMPINGING
HIGHER PRESSURE. HRRR AND RUC SHOW THESE CELLS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND SHOW THIS TREND THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. USED THE UPS CROSSOVER FOG TECHNIQUE AND INCLUDED FOG IN A
FEW MORE AREAS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SPRINKLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY...OTHER PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WITH APPROACHING RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S...BUT TURNING A BIT COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST AS THE WEAKENING SYNOPTIC FLOW ALLOWS WINDS TO TURN
ONSHORE.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH LOWS
ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM MID 40S TO MID 50S...ALONG WITH PATCHY
LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. FROM TIME TO TIME...A FEW SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE
AND ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SHOULD BE DRY AND
WARM SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL AGAIN FEATURE WARM WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AWAY FROM THE SHORES WITH A FEW POP UP STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE SAME GOES FOR TUESDAY AS WELL AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE MARITIMES WILL LEAD TO
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH LCL MVFR AND
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...LOCAL EARLY MORNING FOG AND HAZE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. SOME POP UP CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS SEEMS LIKE MORE OF A THREAT LATER MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER E. SEAS WILL
HOVER BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN SWELL...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN POSTED OUTSIDE THE BAYS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
LONG TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SCA SEAS TUE-WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TODAY... ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT FOLLOWED BY GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY AT NIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1218 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TODAY AND CROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE: RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE
BEGUN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AROUND PORTLAND
AND WILL ARRIVE INTO DOWNEAST PARTS OF THE CWA BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MADE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND QPF WITH THE
MAIN CHANGE BEING TO RAISE THE POPS AND MOVE UP THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION`S ARRIVAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE
PLACEMENT OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREAS OF FOG
A NUISANCE DOWNEAST AND ON THE COAST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE RESIDE. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR DID QUITE WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP AS DID THE CANADIAN GEM. THIS FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIFTING OUT THE CWA TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVE
OUT OF THE NERN US AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE COOLING DOWN AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NAM SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE GFS POINT TO
THE POTENTIAL OF TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE W AND NW AREAS. SB/MUCAPE PROGGED TO HIT 250 J/KG AND TOTAL
TOTALS HIT AROUND 50 W/KIS IN THE UPPER 20S. PLUS THERE WILL BE
SOME FORCING TO TRIGGER THINGS. SMALL HAIL COULD BE A RISK IF THE
LATER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS TREND. DECIDED TO CARRY TSTMS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BUT LEFT OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING ATTM.
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY. FURTHER E AND S, A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN/SHOWERS AS THE LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS SEEING 70F IF THE SUN DECIDES TO
PEEK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA W/THE RISK OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.
QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS DATABASE
WHICH SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
DOWNEAST AREAS W/THE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SB CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO BE 500-1000J/KG WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S. FREEZING
LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OF THE
POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDED ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. FOG WILL BE A ISSUE FOR KBGR & KBHB THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO GO VFR ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO IFR EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT W/FOG AND RAIN.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED BUT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
SWELL AS THE PERIODS CONTINUE TO BE 8-10 SECONDS. THE E SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SOME AND DECIDED TO
BRING THE SWELL UP TO A RANGE OF 4-5 FT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
917 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TODAY AND CROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE: AN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST AT THIS HOUR...DUE TO
ARRIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON
THIS TREND, RAMPED UP POPS AND QPF OVER DOWNEAST LOCALS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE COMING IN A
LITTLE QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT, AND WIND GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE
PLACEMENT OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREAS OF FOG
A NUISANCE DOWNEAST AND ON THE COAST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE RESIDE. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR DID QUITE WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP AS DID THE CANADIAN GEM. THIS FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIFTING OUT THE CWA TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVE
OUT OF THE NERN US AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE COOLING DOWN AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NAM SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE GFS POINT TO
THE POTENTIAL OF TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE W AND NW AREAS. SB/MUCAPE PROGGED TO HIT 250 J/KG AND TOTAL
TOTALS HIT AROUND 50 W/KIS IN THE UPPER 20S. PLUS THERE WILL BE
SOME FORCING TO TRIGGER THINGS. SMALL HAIL COULD BE A RISK IF THE
LATER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS TREND. DECIDED TO CARRY TSTMS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BUT LEFT OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING ATTM.
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY. FURTHER E AND S, A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN/SHOWERS AS THE LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS SEEING 70F IF THE SUN DECIDES TO
PEEK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA W/THE RISK OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.
QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS DATABASE
WHICH SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
DOWNEAST AREAS W/THE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SB CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO BE 500-1000J/KG WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S. FREEZING
LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OF THE
POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDED ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. FOG WILL BE A ISSUE FOR KBGR & KBHB THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO GO VFR ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO IFR EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT W/FOG AND RAIN.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED BUT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
SWELL AS THE PERIODS CONTINUE TO BE 8-10 SECONDS. THE E SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SOME AND DECIDED TO
BRING THE SWELL UP TO A RANGE OF 4-5 FT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
655 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TODAY AND CROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
650 AM UPDATE:
ADJUSTED THE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
DOWNEAST REGION. RAMPED UP THE DRIZZLE AS THE OBS AND WEBCAMS
INDICATE THIS TO BE THE CASE. BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NW
AREAS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z W/JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH THE
LATEST READINGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE PLACEMENT OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREAS OF FOG
A NUISANCE DOWNEAST AND ON THE COAST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE RESIDE. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR DID QUITE WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP AS DID THE CANADIAN GEM. THIS FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIFTING OUT THE CWA TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVE
OUT OF THE NERN US AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE COOLING DOWN AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NAM SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE GFS POINT TO
THE POTENTIAL OF TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE W AND NW AREAS. SB/MUCAPE PROGGED TO HIT 250 J/KG AND TOTAL
TOTALS HIT AROUND 50 W/KIS IN THE UPPER 20S. PLUS THERE WILL BE
SOME FORCING TO TRIGGER THINGS. SMALL HAIL COULD BE A RISK IF THE
LATER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS TREND. DECIDED TO CARRY TSTMS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BUT LEFT OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING ATTM.
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY. FURTHER E AND S, A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN/SHOWERS AS THE LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS SEEING 70F IF THE SUN DECIDES TO
PEEK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA W/THE RISK OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.
QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS DATABASE
WHICH SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
DOWNEAST AREAS W/THE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SB CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO BE 500-1000J/KG WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S. FREEZING
LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OF THE
POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDED ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. FOG WILL BE A ISSUE FOR KBGR & KBHB THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO GO VFR ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO IFR EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT W/FOG AND RAIN.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED BUT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
SWELL AS THE PERIODS CONTINUE TO BE 8-10 SECONDS. THE E SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SOME AND DECIDED TO
BRING THE SWELL UP TO A RANGE OF 4-5 FT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
416 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TODAY AND CROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE PLACEMENT OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREAS OF FOG
A NUISANCE DOWNEAST AND ON THE COAST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE RESIDE. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR DID QUITE WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP AS DID THE CANADIAN GEM. THIS FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIFTING OUT THE CWA TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVE
OUT OF THE NERN US AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE COOLING DOWN AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NAM SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE GFS POINT TO
THE POTENTIAL OF TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE W AND NW AREAS. SB/MUCAPE PROGGED TO HIT 250 J/KG AND TOTAL
TOTALS HIT AROUND 50 W/KIS IN THE UPPER 20S. PLUS THERE WILL BE
SOME FORCING TO TRIGGER THINGS. SMALL HAIL COULD BE A RISK IF THE
LATER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS TREND. DECIDED TO CARRY TSTMS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BUT LEFT OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING ATTM.
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY. FURTHER E AND S, A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN/SHOWERS AS THE LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS SEEING 70F IF THE SUN DECIDES TO
PEEK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA W/THE RISK OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.
QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS DATABASE
WHICH SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
DOWNEAST AREAS W/THE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SB CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO BE 500-1000J/KG WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S. FREEZING
LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OF THE
POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDED ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. FOG WILL BE A ISSUE FOR KBGR & KBHB THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO GO VFR ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO IFR EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT W/FOG AND RAIN.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED BUT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
SWELL AS THE PERIODS CONTINUE TO BE 8-10 SECONDS. THE E SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SOME AND DECIDED TO
BRING THE SWELL UP TO A RANGE OF 4-5 FT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
453 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF UPPER MI THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SD/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THERE WAS SOME DISRUPTION TO
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH FROM MCC ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WAS EVIDENT BY GRAVITY WAVES SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...THE 12Z SUITE
OF MODELS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...SO CONCERNS ABOUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ARE MINIMAL.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH HAS INDUCED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NW WI AND FAR WEST UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THIS EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HANDLED PRECIP PATTERNS WELL OVER
THE LAST 18 HOURS...SO HAVE USED IT TO NARROW IN ON REGIONS OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THE RAP CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST ON SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS HOUGHTON AND AS FAR EAST
AS IMT AND ISHPEMING THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE NE...THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR AND DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
LAGGING 850 HPA TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CLEARING BEHIND THE H5 TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE H8 TROUGH STALLING AND
KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA...SO
CONTINUED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE HEATING
AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA...MORE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR CWA. WEAK S TO SW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE BREEZES
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...AND ALSO KEEP A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
FRI NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTING
FROM NRN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA NEAR
THE WI BORDER IN THE EVENING...A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND 700-500 MB QVECTOR
CONV INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
250-300 MB JET THAT SLIDES FROM NW ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES BAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI FOR
SOME TSRA...PER MODEL MUCAPE VALUES. HOWEVER...THUNDER IS LESS
LIKELY IN WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SUPPORTED BY 850-700 MB FGEN THAT IS
EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH POPS TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. INCREASING MID CLOUDS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR AS PWAT VALUES
CLIMB FROM NEAR 0.25 INCH TO 0.50 INCH.
MON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PCPN CHANCES GIVEN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DRY GFS/GEM AND WET ECMWF WHICH BRINGS A
STRONGER AND MORE PHASED MID LEVEL TROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS. FOR
NOW...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE(CONSENSUS) POPS WERE INCLUDED.
TUE-THU...A DRY PERIOD IS MORE LIKELY FROM TUE INTO WED AS RIDGING
AGAIN TAKES OVER. A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THU
BRINGS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND
RETURN OF MOISTURE THAT COULD BRING PCPN TO THE AREA. MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT
INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER
MN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. EACH SITE CAN EXPECT BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A
LIGHT SHOWER IN THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE AT
IWD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER LOWER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERAL S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF UPPER MI THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SD/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THERE WAS SOME DISRUPTION TO
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH FROM MCC ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WAS EVIDENT BY GRAVITY WAVES SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...THE 12Z SUITE
OF MODELS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...SO CONCERNS ABOUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ARE MINIMAL.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH HAS INDUCED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NW WI AND FAR WEST UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THIS EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HANDLED PRECIP PATTERNS WELL OVER
THE LAST 18 HOURS...SO HAVE USED IT TO NARROW IN ON REGIONS OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THE RAP CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST ON SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS HOUGHTON AND AS FAR EAST
AS IMT AND ISHPEMING THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE NE...THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR AND DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
LAGGING 850 HPA TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CLEARING BEHIND THE H5 TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE H8 TROUGH STALLING AND
KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA...SO
CONTINUED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE HEATING
AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA...MORE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR CWA. WEAK S TO SW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE BREEZES
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...AND ALSO KEEP A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE LATEST 09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP REVEALS TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE
UPSTREAM. ONE WAS LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS AND A SECOND WAS MOVING
THROUGH SRN ALBERTA. THE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING BRINGING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BEFORE LIFTING NE ACROSS MANITOBA TO
HUDSON BAY LATE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PROPEL A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT EVENING
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUN
MORNING.
FRIDAY MORNING...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASED WAA ASSOC WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AT THE NOSE OF A 25 KT 8H JET MAX..ALONG WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN SOME ISOLD SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI
TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHRA EXPECTED FRI MORNING OVER NCNTRL
COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. INSTABILITY IS
FAIRLY LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING TSRA WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.
FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW LIFTING
NE THROUGH NRN MANITOBA TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL PUSH A WEAKENING SFC
COLD FRONT TOWARD WRN UPPER MI LATE FRIDAY WHICH WILL REACH THE
WESTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. LTL TO NO MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...RISING
5H HGTS...AND INCREASING MID-LVL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COULD INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE FIND IT HARD TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
BREAKING OUT OVER FAR WEST MAINLY ALONG THE WI BDR SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MID-LVL
MOISTURE AND Q-VECT CONV INCREASES LATE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DRIVING THROUGH SCNTRL CANADA AND ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER FAR WEST.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LVL TROUGH WILL
PROPEL THE SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON
SATURDAY. INCREASED MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTENING ALONG THE SFC
FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
THE CWA. BEST MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT
UPPER JET TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE WESTERN CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA LATE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH MAY ROB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION AND THUS LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA. SINCE
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ACROSS THE AREA WILL ONLY MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE WEST HALF SHOULD END UP WITH SUNNY
SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH PWAT
VALUES AS LOW OF 0.25 INCH OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL FCST AREA...EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE ON MIN TEMPS WITH SOME MID
30S TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER THE TYPICAL WRN INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FROST BUT DID NOT INCLUDE AS THIS
TIME AS I WAS NOT SURE WHETHER THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN
MID-HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL
CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS WHICH MAY TEMPER COOLING SOME.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY AND KEEP
CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH MODEL SNDGS SHOWING DRY LOW TO MID
LVLS...ONLY EXPECT SOME INCREASED MID-HIGH CLOUDS.
A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND ITS ASSOC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN WED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER
MN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. EACH SITE CAN EXPECT BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A
LIGHT SHOWER IN THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE AT
IWD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER LOWER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERAL S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT NW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS INTO
NW ONTARIO. UPSTREAM...A TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH MONTANA.
AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH PROMINENT
LAKE BREEZES. DIURNAL CU HAD DEVELOP WELL INLAND ALONG THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE DIURNAL CU FADE...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY
MOVE THROUGH THE E HALF OF UPPER MI...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
NAM/GFS 500-300 MB RH FCST. OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN TO 0.35 TO
0.50 INCH. EXPECT MIN READINGS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY AROUND 40 INLAND. SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
FROM WATERSMEET TO IRON RIVER...AMASA AND REPUBLIC MAY SEE READINGS
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND THAT A WEAK SHRTWV MAY MOVE INTO W UPPER MI BY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FAR WEST TO PUSH ML DEWPOINTS INTO
THE LOWER 50S WITH RESULTING MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 400-800 J/KG
RANGE. SO...SOME SOME SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE REST
OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MILD/DRY DAY WITH INLAND TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE LAKE BREEZES KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM IS EXPECTED WITH JUST A COUPLE CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES TRACKS ENE BEFORE GRADUALLY
STALLING OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD...A COUPLE
SUBTLE FEATURES COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
HEATING SUPPORT. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.
THEN...A DECAYING SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...AND WITH RATHER DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO MUCH OF THE
COLUMN...LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. BEST MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 100KT UPPER
JET TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS REACHES THE WESTERN CWA. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A BIT
IN QUESTION AS MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY
LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL ACROSS THE AREA...SO ONLY MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END
TO RAIN AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
WEST HALF SHOULD END UP WITH FAIRLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH PWAT VALUES AS LOW OF 0.3 INCH ACROSS THE WEST
HALF...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWERED TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FROST...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT
TO HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LOWER TEMPS ANY FARTHER ATTM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY AND KEEP
CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO ONLY SOME
INCREASED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THEN...A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOOKS TO BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRA OVER WRN
UPPER MI THIS AFTN. THIS IS REFLECTED AT KIWD WITH VCSH IN THE
MID/LATE AFTN HRS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS E TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
AND GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THU. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SE
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND SAT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SRLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN NRLY WINDS. HIGH PRES WILL AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY. OVERALL...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW 20KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO SW MN THAT WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE MPX AREA
THIS EVENING WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS ON
INITIAL THETA-E SURGE MOVING INTO ERN MN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD NOT
MAKE TO MUCH PROGRESS INTO WISCO AS IT CONTINUES TO RUN AWAY FROM
THE BETTER INSTABILITY. FARTHER WEST...A SFC PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS
ERN SODAK HAS SEEN INSTABILITY BUILD ALONG IT...WITH MLCAPES NOW UP
TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. MOST HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING WHAT RADAR IS SHOWING NOW...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ELEVATED ZONE OF INSTABILITY. BULK SHEAR IS
MARGINAL AT BEST...WITH THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING JUST 20-30
KTS OF BULK SHEAR. THIS SHEAR WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR 1-1.5 INCH HAIL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...IF A STORM CAN LATCH ON TO ANY SFC
BOUNDARIES WITHIN THE TROUGH...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE HIGHER VALUES OF THE SPC
NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER /NST/ ALONG THE MN/SD BORDER. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO GET ABOUT AS FAR NE AS THE MN RIVER VALLEY...WHICH
COINCIDES WITH WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A BRIEF CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CALM DOWN PRETTY
QUICK AFTER SUNSET AS THERE WILL BE NO LLJ TO HELP FUEL STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
INSTEAD...THE BIG THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MN. GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE
DAKOTAS WASHES OUT OVER MN. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ONCE WE CLEAR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OUT OF THE AREA. CENTRAL MN
HAS THE MOST CONCERN FOR FOG...AS THIS IS WHERE THE MOST RAIN FELL
TODAY /ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM DOUGLAS UP INTO TODD COUNTIES/. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON
IN CENTRAL MN...SO WE WILL NOT HAVE FAR TO GO TO START DEVELOPING
FOG. A BIT UNCERTAIN AS TO JUST HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE...SO
ISSUED NO HEADLINES...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
VISIBILITY TRENDS.
FOR FRIDAY...OUR DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
QUESTION FOR WHERE STORMS DEVELOP IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE COLD
FRONT BE BY THE AFTERNOON. SAID COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS WRN NODAK AND CURRENT BLENDED FORECAST GRIDS HAVE THIS FRONT
NEAR A RWF/MILLE LACS LAKE LINE BY 21Z. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO GET UP TO AROUND 80...WE WILL HAVE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH TOMORROW...WITH THE NAM/GFS SHOWING MLCAPE BUILDING TO BETWEEN
2000 AND 3000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH H85 WINDS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...WE WILL AGAIN HAVE MARGINAL SHEAR TO WORK WITH...SO IT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY WHERE COULD SEE MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE TYPE
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THRU MOST OF MPX CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...
CUTTING OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHC OF TSRA IN
THE SE MPX CWA. THIS POST FRONTAL PRECIP. SHOULD SLOWLY WORK
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME CHGS IN THE
FORECAST CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
REMAINS AND ALLOWS FOR A SYSTEM TO BRUSH ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER.
MODEL CONTINUITY PROBLEMS EXIST WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHRTWV MOVING
SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EC HAS MORE ENERGY AFFECTING MPX CWA
COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS IS BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
JET WHICH IS SLOWER AND STRONGER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS. EVEN THE LATEST GFS/GEM HAVE TRENDED FURTHER TO
THE NORTH COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH WX SYSTEM AS
WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW IS
CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AFFECTING MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS THRU NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WET AND COOLER PATTERN FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SHOWERS WEST OF I-35 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL APART AS THEY
WORK INTO ERN MN AS THEY RUN AWAY FROM INSTABILITY AND UPPER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SE SODAK. BESIDE
THAT SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ALSO A SFC TROUGH NEAR THE I-29
CORRIDOR. BUILDING INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS COMBINED WITH THE FORCING FROM THE SFC AND UPPER FEATURES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT STORMS IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS OUT WEST PER THE HRRR. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO FOLLOWED
ITS IDEAS FOR DECAYING THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS OVER ERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT STORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST BY 20Z. FOR
TONIGHT...BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE SFC
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL STALL OUT OVER WRN MN AS THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES QUITE BAGGY OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THAT...SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT AS WELL. GIVEN RAINS SO FAR...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG OVER CENTRAL MN
OVERNIGHT AS THE GFSLAMP IS HINTING AT WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR VSBYS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY AFTER 18Z WHEN THEY DO
DEVELOP.
KMSP...LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR...WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY OFF
TO THE WEST FIZZLING OUT OVERHEAD BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR SHRA IN THAT WINDOW. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN HOW ACTIVITY THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN MN WILL
EVOLVE. BUT GIVEN CURRENT COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN...SUSPECT THE HRRR MAY BE BRINGING ANY ACTIVITY TOO FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED JUST
WEST OF MSP...SO WILL LIKELY SEE TSRA IN THE AREA AT THE TAIL END
OF THE TAF...BUT LEFT ANY MENTION OUT AS CONFIDENCE IN
PLACEMENT/TIMING WITH ANY ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF 27-30 HOURS OUT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC IFR/MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
122 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
FROM LAST EVENING HAS DIED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS THE KEY FEATURE OF FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REGIONAL RADAR VIEW
SHOWS CONVECTION REGENERATING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS JUST OUT
AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS
WAVE WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST WITH TIME AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
FORECAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
CONVECTION NEAR ABERDEEN IS EXPECTED TO GROW BUT ITS SOUTHERN
EXTENT LOOKS TO BE MORE LIMITED BASED ON THE LATEST HOPWRF AND
HRRR SOLUTIONS. THIS AREA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT MOST
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ABOUT REDWOOD
FALLS UNTIL LATER INITIATION EXTENDING SOUTH OCCURS LATE THIS
MORNING. HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE AGREED THAT SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE POPS WAS NECESSARY
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL NEAR 1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DECENT PV
ANOMALY WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...AS WILL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND DECENT FGEN IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. SO THIS
FORCING WILL HELP GET SOME ACTIVITY STARTED AND TAP IN TO THE
INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO GENERALLY
EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE TODAY. AS THE LINE
MOVES EAST TOWARD WISCONSIN...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MAY VERY WELL DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY REACH EAU
CLAIRE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
PREVALENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL MARK THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS WEAK IMPULSES TRACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE BELOW NORMAL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD SNEAK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO THE FROPA.
ALSO EXPECT ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY/MOISTURE/FORCING TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE JET STRUCTURE BECOMES CONDUCIVE TO
IMPRESSIVE 250-700MB DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE PER BOTH 05.00Z
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONCENTRATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOCATED
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONT/TROUGH FROM FRIDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AS CAA ENSUES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY OVERALL WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE PARADE ARRIVES ON MONDAY. HAVE NOT SEEN
A GREAT DEAL OF CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING ON THIS ONE...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL TEMPORAL/SPATIAL
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
TUESDAY BRINGS WEAK BUILDING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AS PLAINS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AHEAD OF A
WESTERN TROUGH. TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CREEPING INTO THE LOW AND MID
70S. ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY MID WEEK...BUT
NOTABLE STRENGTH/TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE WET...BUT THAT COULD SHIFT
BACKWARD OR FORWARD IN TIME BY 24 HOURS AS MODELS HONE IN ON A
SCENARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SHOWERS WEST OF I-35 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL APART AS THEY
WORK INTO ERN MN AS THEY RUN AWAY FROM INSTABILITY AND UPPER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SE SODAK. BESIDE
THAT SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ALSO A SFC TROUGH NEAR THE I-29
CORRIDOR. BUILDING INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS COMBINED WITH THE FORCING FROM THE SFC AND UPPER FEATURES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT STORMS IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS OUT WEST PER THE HRRR. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO FOLLOWED
ITS IDEAS FOR DECAYING THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS OVER ERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT STORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST BY 20Z. FOR
TONIGHT...BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE SFC
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL STALL OUT OVER WRN MN AS THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES QUITE BAGGY OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THAT...SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT AS WELL. GIVEN RAINS SO FAR...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG OVER CENTRAL MN
OVERNIGHT AS THE GFSLAMP IS HINTING AT WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR VSBYS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY AFTER 18Z WHEN THEY DO
DEVELOP.
KMSP...LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR...WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY OFF
TO THE WEST FIZZLING OUT OVERHEAD BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR SHRA IN THAT WINDOW. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN HOW ACTIVITY THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN MN WILL
EVOLVE. BUT GIVEN CURRENT COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN...SUSPECT THE HRRR MAY BE BRINGING ANY ACTIVITY TOO FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED JUST
WEST OF MSP...SO WILL LIKELY SEE TSRA IN THE AREA AT THE TAIL END
OF THE TAF...BUT LEFT ANY MENTION OUT AS CONFIDENCE IN
PLACEMENT/TIMING WITH ANY ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF 27-30 HOURS OUT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC IFR/MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
120 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
...Another Round of Storms Late Tonight and Friday...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
The convective complex that brought severe weather to the region
this morning had moved off to the southeast. With a stabilized
airmass left in the wake of this storm complex only expect
isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this
afternoon. Severe weather is not expected this afternoon.
Focus turns to next potential round of storms and heavy rainfall
later tonight and Friday. More to come with the next discussion.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
Active morning of weather across area this morning. Training
convection extending from the Pittsburg, KS/Joplin, MO area
southeastward toward Branson has produced numerous reports of
hail and very heavy rainfall. Additional isolated storms have
redeveloped over south central Missouri.
Main forecast focus is the developing severe thunderstorm complex
over central Kansas. This system is quickly getting its act
together this morning and will continue to accelerate east,
closely following forward propagating system motion vectors
(currently at 50-60kt to the east southeast).
This convective complex will continue to move into a favorable
environment. There is no lack of thermo ahead of this system with
MUCAPE around/above 2000 J/kg from areas along and south of Nevada
to West Plains. MUCAPE will actually increase a bit this morning,
with the RUC suggesting around 3000 J/kg by the mid/late morning
hours. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50 kt will ensure continued storm
organization. While low level shear is a bit light/disorganized,
low level theta-e differences in the mid/upper 20s C are suggested
by the short term models which indicates good wind potential.
The weak low level shear does keep 0-3km shear vectors in the
20-25kt range (oriented west to east). This is not ideal for
mesovortex production, but it is still plausible to see
mesovorticies with any west to east surges embedded within the
line.
Locations most prone to seeing this squall line will be areas
(roughly) along and south of Nevada to West Plains. Timing wise,
it looks like this system will enter the western portions of the
outlook area by 8 AM, with a progressive acceleration to the east
through the morning hours. Current estimates place the line around
the highway 65 corridor around 10 AM, south central MO by noon.
These will definitely need to be revised as this system matures
and accelerates.
Hazards...the biggest risk will be wind gusts to 70mph. Localized
areas of stronger winds are possible, especially considering the
increase in low level theta-e differences. Hail will likely be
tough to come by, but a few stones to quarter size are possible.
At this point the tornado risk is on the low side given expected
0-3km shear vector orientation and strength. That said, we do have
multiple boundaries in place and line interactions are possible.
As a result, will continue with a few tornadoes possible.
Additional activity is expected tonight as another MCS looks to
develop from convection refiring over KS/OK. This will pose yet
another wind risk. If this does materialize as expected, a flash
flood watch will need to be considered.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
As has been advertised, Friday through (at least) the weekend will
feature a very active weather pattern. Shortwaves will pass
through a largely zonal flow in periodic fashion. 00z suite of
model agrees with the overall pattern in general. The devil, of
course, will be in the mesoscale details with respect to exact
positioning of the synoptic scale front and shear/instability
profiles.
Bottom line timing from 00z models. Scattered showers/storms are
expected to redevelop during the heat of the day Friday. A
convective complex passage Saturday (originating from the central
Plains). Additional thunderstorm complexes are possible Saturday
night into Sunday, although trust in details at this juncture is
low.
Heading into next week, the ECMWF and GEM produce a cutoff low
over the Midwest during the first half of the week. This will keep
our area unsettled with additional rainfall possible. The GFS is
an outlier keeping the pattern progressive. The current forecast
sides with the cutoff low. Temperatures will remain seasonable
from Friday through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
Pilots flying to area terminals can expect improving conditions
this afternoon in the wake of the morning storms. However
localized areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible.
Another round of thunderstorms will develop late tonight and may
impact the terminal sites during the overnight hours. MVFR
conditions will become more prevalent late tonight into Friday
morning.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
Active morning of weather across area this morning. Training
convection extending from the Pittsburg, KS/Joplin, MO area
southeastward toward Branson has produced numerous reports of
hail and very heavy rainfall. Additional isolated storms have
redeveloped over south central Missouri.
Main forecast focus is the developing severe thunderstorm complex
over central Kansas. This system is quickly getting its act
together this morning and will continue to accelerate east,
closely following forward propagating system motion vectors
(currently at 50-60kt to the east southeast).
This convective complex will continue to move into a favorable
environment. There is no lack of thermo ahead of this system with
MUCAPE around/above 2000 J/kg from areas along and south of Nevada
to West Plains. MUCAPE will actually increase a bit this morning,
with the RUC suggesting around 3000 J/kg by the mid/late morning
hours. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50 kt will ensure continued storm
organization. While low level shear is a bit light/disorganized,
low level theta-e differences in the mid/upper 20s C are suggested
by the short term models which indicates good wind potential.
The weak low level shear does keep 0-3km shear vectors in the
20-25kt range (oriented west to east). This is not ideal for
mesovortex production, but it is still plausible to see
mesovorticies with any west to east surges embedded within the
line.
Locations most prone to seeing this squall line will be areas
(roughly) along and south of Nevada to West Plains. Timing wise,
it looks like this system will enter the western portions of the
outlook area by 8 AM, with a progressive acceleration to the east
through the morning hours. Current estimates place the line around
the highway 65 corridor around 10 AM, south central MO by noon.
These will definitely need to be revised as this system matures
and accelerates.
Hazards...the biggest risk will be wind gusts to 70mph. Localized
areas of stronger winds are possible, especially considering the
increase in low level theta-e differences. Hail will likely be
tough to come by, but a few stones to quarter size are possible.
At this point the tornado risk is on the low side given expected
0-3km shear vector orientation and strength. That said, we do have
multiple boundaries in place and line interactions are possible.
As a result, will continue with a few tornadoes possible.
Additional activity is expected tonight as another MCS looks to
develop from convection refiring over KS/OK. This will pose yet
another wind risk. If this does materialize as expected, a flash
flood watch will need to be considered.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
As has been advertised, Friday through (at least) the weekend will
feature a very active weather pattern. Shortwaves will pass
through a largely zonal flow in periodic fashion. 00z suite of
model agrees with the overall pattern in general. The devil, of
course, will be in the mesoscale details with respect to exact
positioning of the synoptic scale front and shear/instability
profiles.
Bottom line timing from 00z models. Scattered showers/storms are
expected to redevelop during the heat of the day Friday. A
convective complex passage Saturday (originating from the central
Plains). Additional thunderstorm complexes are possible Saturday
night into Sunday, although trust in details at this juncture is
low.
Heading into next week, the ECMWF and GEM produce a cutoff low
over the Midwest during the first half of the week. This will keep
our area unsettled with additional rainfall possible. The GFS is
an outlier keeping the pattern progressive. The current forecast
sides with the cutoff low. Temperatures will remain seasonable
from Friday through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
The region is in a lull between storm systems with VFR ceilings at
the KSGF and KJLN terminals. Some areas of fog were impacting
portions of the area with MVFR to IFR visibilities noted at KBBG.
A severe storm system is expected to move across the region this
morning and into the early afternoon with MVFR to IFR visibilities
and strong gusty winds in storms.
Additional storms are expected to develop during the evening and
overnight with MVFR to IFR flight conditions expected as rain and
fog develop once again.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Hatch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
418 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
Active morning of weather across area this morning. Training
convection extending from the Pittsburg, KS/Joplin, MO area
southeastward toward Branson has produced numerous reports of
hail and very heavy rainfall. Additional isolated storms have
redeveloped over south central Missouri.
Main forecast focus is the developing severe thunderstorm complex
over central Kansas. This system is quickly getting its act
together this morning and will continue to accelerate east,
closely following forward propagating system motion vectors
(currently at 50-60kt to the east southeast).
This convective complex will continue to move into a favorable
environment. There is no lack of thermo ahead of this system with
MUCAPE around/above 2000 J/kg from areas along and south of Nevada
to West Plains. MUCAPE will actually increase a bit this morning,
with the RUC suggesting around 3000 J/kg by the mid/late morning
hours. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50 kt will ensure continued storm
organization. While low level shear is a bit light/disorganized,
low level theta-e differences in the mid/upper 20s C are suggested
by the short term models which indicates good wind potential.
The weak low level shear does keep 0-3km shear vectors in the
20-25kt range (oriented west to east). This is not ideal for
mesovortex production, but it is still plausible to see
mesovorticies with any west to east surges embedded within the
line.
Locations most prone to seeing this squall line will be areas
(roughly) along and south of Nevada to West Plains. Timing wise,
it looks like this system will enter the western portions of the
outlook area by 8 AM, with a progressive acceleration to the east
through the morning hours. Current estimates place the line around
the highway 65 corridor around 10 AM, south central MO by noon.
These will definitely need to be revised as this system matures
and accelerates.
Hazards...the biggest risk will be wind gusts to 70mph. Localized
areas of stronger winds are possible, especially considering the
increase in low level theta-e differences. Hail will likely be
tough to come by, but a few stones to quarter size are possible.
At this point the tornado risk is on the low side given expected
0-3km shear vector orientation and strength. That said, we do have
multiple boundaries in place and line interactions are possible.
As a result, will continue with a few tornadoes possible.
Additional activity is expected tonight as another MCS looks to
develop from convection refiring over KS/OK. This will pose yet
another wind risk. If this does materialize as expected, a flash
flood watch will need to be considered.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
As has been advertised, Friday through (at least) the weekend will
feature a very active weather pattern. Shortwaves will pass
through a largely zonal flow in periodic fashion. 00z suite of
model agrees with the overall pattern in general. The devil, of
course, will be in the mesoscale details with respect to exact
positioning of the synoptic scale front and shear/instability
profiles.
Bottom line timing from 00z models. Scattered showers/storms are
expected to redevelop during the heat of the day Friday. A
convective complex passage Saturday (originating from the central
Plains). Additional thunderstorm complexes are possible Saturday
night into Sunday, although trust in details at this juncture is
low.
Heading into next week, the ECMWF and GEM produce a cutoff low
over the Midwest during the first half of the week. This will keep
our area unsettled with additional rainfall possible. The GFS is
an outlier keeping the pattern progressive. The current forecast
sides with the cutoff low. Temperatures will remain seasonable
from Friday through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A frontal boundary is
currently laid out from west to east across southern Missouri this
evening and will not move much through the overnight hours. The
front interacting with a unstable airmass is resulting in storms
develop and moving east along the front. This will continue into
the overnight hours with the storms sagging south through the
night. Brief MVFR conditions, frequent lighting, and brief heavy
rainfall will occur in these storms overnight. Some brief gusty
winds and dime size hail will be possible in a few of the stronger
storms.
Additional thunderstorms are currently developing across
northeastern Colorado. These storms will develop into a line of
storms and race across Kansas tonight and start pushing into
southwestern Missouri early Thursday morning. A very unstable
airmass will remain in place overnight and very strong winds will
be possible with this line of storms. MVFR to IFR conditions will
occur within this line briefly.
Additional storms may then develop Thursday afternoon, but will
have to see how much cloud cover and how much the area is worked
over by the morning convection before having higher confidence in
storms developing Thursday afternoon.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1228 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE TSTM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS BRUSHING WRN NEB. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
TRIGGERING THE TSTM COMPLEXES WILL OCCASIONALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS NCNTL NEB HOWEVER THIS
RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
RAIN AND OR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS NEXT
TUESDAY WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED TO DROP WATCH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A STORMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. NEXT WAVE IS CROSSING THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND FIRING STORMS OUT IN
WYOMING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS EVENING
AS IT DRIFTS EAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONGEAL INTO AN MCS
THAT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA/NEB WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO
USHER IN BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PRECIP WATER AN INCH
TO 1.25 INCHES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1K J/KG WILL BE AIDED
BY THE NOSE OF A 25 KT LL JET TO HELP SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY. ALL IN
ALL THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.
A SECOND WAVE OVER N CENTRAL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA. THE
MCS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IF NOT EXITING INTO KS. BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS LIKELY.
STILL HAVING A COOL AIRMASS AND WITH MORNING CLOUDS...HIGHS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TANDEM UPPER LEVEL COLD POOLS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT
NRN STREAM ENERGY THRU THE HIGH PLAINS. DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF
THESE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE WRN ZONES WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THRU THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL POSITION THE BEST RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND INTO
WYOMING. THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
PROVIDING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
KS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY TABLE SCRAPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WRN
AND NCNTL NEB AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES ARE CONCERNED.
BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
HOLDING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE 60S. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND
OF THE GFS...SREF...NAM AND ECM FOR POPS. THE GEM WAS THE EASTERN
MOST SOLN AND APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLN GIVEN THE PATTERN
FAVORING HIGH PLAINS STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE RAP MODEL GIVES INSIGHT
TO THIS BIAS AS IT IS WEST OF THE NAM SOLN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS MCS
FCST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FCST AREA ACROSS KS AND ERN COLO. THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD KEEP THE FCST AREA GENERALLY COOL
AND STABLE AT THE SFC. SO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS 5 PERCENT OR
LESS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SWRN
NEB WOULD BE THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN WY/ERN COLO AND MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A FAIRLY
DECENT NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NRN NEB SUNDAY. THE GEM
WAS WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS CHANCE OF RAIN. WINDS ALOFT RELATIVE
TO THE INSTABILITY IN THE GFS AND ECM SOLNS APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NEB.
ANOTHER PERHAPS MORE SUBSTANTIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEAR IN THE GFS AND ECM INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KT
AND THE GFS SHOWS THE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER BETWEEN 30 AND 40 WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -10C. THE ECM SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1500J/KG AND
THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...WELL BELOW
YESTERDAYS MEGA-SEVERE EVENT. STILL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY OR FEATURES ISOLATED POPS.
SOME VERY COOL AIR WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA. H700MB TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR 0C ACROSS NRN NEB SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS SUNDAY TO
THE 60S WITH LOW IN THE 40S IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER...HEIGHTS
ALOFT RISE AND MOISTURE RETURNS IN PREPARATION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS SOME SEVERE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS. SOME SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA IS POSSIBLE 0512Z AS MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHES THROUGH FROM
WYOMING. SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH CEILINGS INTO MVFR CATEGORIES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
RECENT RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN
CONTINUES TO CAUSE RISES TO THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IN COLORADO.
LATEST CALCULATIONS ARE RESULTING IN RISES OF THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TO AROUND BANK FULL EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER AREA WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE PEAK FLOW. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING THE CREST TO ROSCOE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE SOUTH PLATTE AT NORTH PLATTE WILL ALSO BE SEEING A
NOTICEABLE RISE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1157 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE TSTM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS BRUSHING WRN NEB. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
TRIGGERING THE TSTM COMPLEXES WILL OCCASIONALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS NCNTL NEB HOWEVER THIS
RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
RAIN AND OR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS NEXT
TUESDAY WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED TO DROP WATCH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A STORMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. NEXT WAVE IS CROSSING THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND FIRING STORMS OUT IN
WYOMING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS EVENING
AS IT DRIFTS EAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONGEAL INTO AN MCS
THAT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA/NEB WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO
USHER IN BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PRECIP WATER AN INCH
TO 1.25 INCHES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1K J/KG WILL BE AIDED
BY THE NOSE OF A 25 KT LL JET TO HELP SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY. ALL IN
ALL THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.
A SECOND WAVE OVER N CENTRAL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA. THE
MCS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IF NOT EXITING INTO KS. BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS LIKELY.
STILL HAVING A COOL AIRMASS AND WITH MORNING CLOUDS...HIGHS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TANDEM UPPER LEVEL COLD POOLS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT
NRN STREAM ENERGY THRU THE HIGH PLAINS. DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF
THESE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE WRN ZONES WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THRU THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL POSITION THE BEST RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND INTO
WYOMING. THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
PROVIDING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
KS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY TABLE SCRAPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WRN
AND NCNTL NEB AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES ARE CONCERNED.
BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
HOLDING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE 60S. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND
OF THE GFS...SREF...NAM AND ECM FOR POPS. THE GEM WAS THE EASTERN
MOST SOLN AND APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLN GIVEN THE PATTERN
FAVORING HIGH PLAINS STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE RAP MODEL GIVES INSIGHT
TO THIS BIAS AS IT IS WEST OF THE NAM SOLN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS MCS
FCST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FCST AREA ACROSS KS AND ERN COLO. THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD KEEP THE FCST AREA GENERALLY COOL
AND STABLE AT THE SFC. SO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS 5 PERCENT OR
LESS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SWRN
NEB WOULD BE THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN WY/ERN COLO AND MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A FAIRLY
DECENT NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NRN NEB SUNDAY. THE GEM
WAS WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS CHANCE OF RAIN. WINDS ALOFT RELATIVE
TO THE INSTABILITY IN THE GFS AND ECM SOLNS APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NEB.
ANOTHER PERHAPS MORE SUBSTANTIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEAR IN THE GFS AND ECM INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KT
AND THE GFS SHOWS THE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER BETWEEN 30 AND 40 WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -10C. THE ECM SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1500J/KG AND
THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...WELL BELOW
YESTERDAYS MEGA-SEVERE EVENT. STILL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY OR FEATURES ISOLATED POPS.
SOME VERY COOL AIR WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA. H700MB TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR 0C ACROSS NRN NEB SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS SUNDAY TO
THE 60S WITH LOW IN THE 40S IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER...HEIGHTS
ALOFT RISE AND MOISTURE RETURNS IN PREPARATION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
644 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF EAST AROUND 30KTS INTO
THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS. AS THE STORMS PROGRESS EAST SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE STORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
RECENT RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN
CONTINUES TO CAUSE RISES TO THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IN COLORADO.
LATEST CALCULATIONS ARE RESULTING IN RISES OF THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TO AROUND BANK FULL EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER AREA WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE PEAK FLOW. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING THE CREST TO ROSCOE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE SOUTH PLATTE AT NORTH PLATTE WILL ALSO BE SEEING A
NOTICEABLE RISE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA TODAY WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
BOTH DAYS...ALONG COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S
TO POSSIBLY NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1044 AM EDT THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A
PATCH OF PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS... CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST VERMONT AT THIS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE ENDED AND
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES OUT TO
SEA SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODELS SHOW A COLD
POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW. ALREADY SEEING PLENTY OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE NORTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...SO EXPECTING CLOUDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE NOW MOSTLY SUNNY. HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE SEEING
MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT VERY WELL
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS THINKING WITH EARLY MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BTV CWA IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN AN
UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND A SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE DELMARVA REGION
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH STAYS SOUTH AND WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACTS
TO THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORNING SHOWERS PUSHING
THROUGH THE SPRINGFIELD VT AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTL BORDER
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VT. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MEAGER SURFACE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG...SO REALLY NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO. WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN
ALOFT SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE`LL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AS IT
SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGER. LOWS WILL
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...BUT COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. SHOWERS POP UP AGAIN MID-DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE TO MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND MOISTURE
AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH MORE SO ON THE NORTHERN
GREENS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY THOUGH A TAD WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S FOR SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...DESPITE MODEST DIFFERENCES HERE AND
THERE...MAIN THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY...TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. MOST
PROBLEMATIC CONTINUES TO BE THE GLOBAL MODELS` HANDLING OF
EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SAT/SUN
TIME FRAME...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS FEATURE EVOLVES IN THE
MEAN WSW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SEVERAL BULLSEYES
IN PRECIPITATION AND ATMOSPHERIC BUOYANCY ALONG THE FEATURES TRACK
SUGGEST CONTINUED FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ULTIMATELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON TIMING/SPEED
ISSUES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN LINE
WITH THE GEFS AND HPC APPEARS THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...SUNDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST/WARMEST DAY WITH
ALL SPOTS INTO THE 80S AS 18Z BLENDED 925 MB TEMPS AVERAGE AROUND
20C. AS AFOREMENTIONED MIDWESTERN ENERGY AND GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH TRACK EAST...INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER APPEAR REASONABLE BY MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK TOWARD SEASONAL EARLY JUNE NORMS. BY MID
WEEK...IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONT TO APPROACH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACRS SE VT. CRNT
OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS ACRS THE SLV. THINKING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND IMPACT SLK/MPV WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL
AT BTV/PBG AND RUT. TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL MOISTURE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY AFT 03Z AT SLK/MPV WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY
AND IFR POSSIBLE BTWN 06Z-12Z FRIDAY. GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRIEFLY BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTN...BEFORE DECREASING BLW 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR BY
EARLY AFTN.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY..
ISOLATED SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT MPV WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR WL
PREVAIL FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY. NEXT SYSTEM WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS
AND POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES ON MONDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
06Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA TODAY WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
BOTH DAYS...ALONG COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S
TO POSSIBLY NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1044 AM EDT THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A
PATCH OF PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS... CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST VERMONT AT THIS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE ENDED AND
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES OUT TO
SEA SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODELS SHOW A COLD
POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW. ALREADY SEEING PLENTY OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE NORTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...SO EXPECTING CLOUDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE NOW MOSTLY SUNNY. HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE SEEING
MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT VERY WELL
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS THINKING WITH EARLY MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BTV CWA IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN AN
UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND A SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE DELMARVA REGION
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH STAYS SOUTH AND WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACTS
TO THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORNING SHOWERS PUSHING
THROUGH THE SPRINGFIELD VT AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTL BORDER
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VT. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MEAGER SURFACE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG...SO REALLY NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO. WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN
ALOFT SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE`LL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AS IT
SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGER. LOWS WILL
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...BUT COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. SHOWERS POP UP AGAIN MID-DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE TO MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND MOISTURE
AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH MORE SO ON THE NORTHERN
GREENS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY THOUGH A TAD WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S FOR SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...DESPITE MODEST DIFFERENCES HERE AND
THERE...MAIN THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY...TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. MOST
PROBLEMATIC CONTINUES TO BE THE GLOBAL MODELS` HANDLING OF
EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SAT/SUN
TIME FRAME...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS FEATURE EVOLVES IN THE
MEAN WSW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SEVERAL BULLSEYES
IN PRECIPITATION AND ATMOSPHERIC BUOYANCY ALONG THE FEATURES TRACK
SUGGEST CONTINUED FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ULTIMATELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON TIMING/SPEED
ISSUES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN LINE
WITH THE GEFS AND HPC APPEARS THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...SUNDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST/WARMEST DAY WITH
ALL SPOTS INTO THE 80S AS 18Z BLENDED 925 MB TEMPS AVERAGE AROUND
20C. AS AFOREMENTIONED MIDWESTERN ENERGY AND GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH TRACK EAST...INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER APPEAR REASONABLE BY MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK TOWARD SEASONAL EARLY JUNE NORMS. BY MID
WEEK...IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCT/BKN VFR CIGS FROM 050-090 AGL EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED UNDER LIGHT WINDS.
SOME BRIEF SKC AT KSLK/BTV/KPBG EARLY. AFTER 15Z...SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT
MAIN THEME WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AFTER
00Z AS WINDS ABATE. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIGS
POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY..
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
SCT/BKN CIGS. COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/NORTH AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT
OVERALL THEME IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH NEXT
WAVE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE. TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS IN
REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND AS SUCH
WILL SUGGEST MAINLY VFR WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY WHEN IT DOES OCCUR.
06Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1044 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE CEILOMETER AT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND (KRUT)-SOUTHERN
VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN OUT OF SERVICE SINCE MAY 29TH AT
0215Z. THUS...THIS SITE IS NOT REPORTING SKY COVER AT THIS TIME.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE
FAA AOCC THAT PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO FIX THE CEILOMETER. THE FAA
AOCC HAVE INFORMED US OF A SCHEDULED OUTAGE OF THE KRUT AWOS
BETWEEN 1430Z-1900Z (1030 AM EDT-300 PM EDT LOCAL TIME) TODAY FOR
THE CEILOMETER FIX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA TODAY WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
BOTH DAYS...ALONG COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S
TO POSSIBLY NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT VERY WELL FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS THINKING WITH EARLY MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BTV CWA IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND A SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTH TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE DELMARVA REGION ALONG
A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH STAYS SOUTH AND WILL HAVE LIMITED
IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORNING SHOWERS
PUSHING THROUGH THE SPRINGFIELD VT AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTL BORDER PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VT. LATEST RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MEAGER SURFACE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG...SO REALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDER BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO. WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE`LL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AS IT
SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGER. LOWS WILL
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...BUT COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. SHOWERS POP UP AGAIN MID-DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE TO MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND MOISTURE
AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH MORE SO ON THE NORTHERN
GREENS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY THOUGH A TAD WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S FOR SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...DESPITE MODEST DIFFERENCES HERE AND
THERE...MAIN THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY...TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. MOST
PROBLEMATIC CONTINUES TO BE THE GLOBAL MODELS` HANDLING OF
EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SAT/SUN
TIME FRAME...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS FEATURE EVOLVES IN THE
MEAN WSW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SEVERAL BULLSEYES
IN PRECIPITATION AND ATMOSPHERIC BUOYANCY ALONG THE FEATURES TRACK
SUGGEST CONTINUED FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ULTIMATELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON TIMING/SPEED
ISSUES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN LINE
WITH THE GEFS AND HPC APPEARS THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...SUNDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST/WARMEST DAY WITH
ALL SPOTS INTO THE 80S AS 18Z BLENDED 925 MB TEMPS AVERAGE AROUND
20C. AS AFOREMENTIONED MIDWESTERN ENERGY AND GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH TRACK EAST...INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER APPEAR REASONABLE BY MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK TOWARD SEASONAL EARLY JUNE NORMS. BY MID
WEEK...IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCT/BKN VFR CIGS FROM 050-090 AGL EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED UNDER LIGHT WINDS.
SOME BRIEF SKC AT KSLK/BTV/KPBG EARLY. AFTER 15Z...SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT
MAIN THEME WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AFTER
00Z AS WINDS ABATE. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIGS
POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY..
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
SCT/BKN CIGS. COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/NORTH AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT
OVERALL THEME IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH NEXT
WAVE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE. TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS IN
REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND AS SUCH
WILL SUGGEST MAINLY VFR WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY WHEN IT DOES OCCUR.
06Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 744 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE CEILOMETER AT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND (KRUT)-SOUTHERN
VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN OUT OF SERVICE SINCE MAY 29TH AT
0215Z. THUS...THIS SITE IS NOT REPORTING SKY COVER AT THIS TIME.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE
FAA AOCC THAT PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO FIX THE CEILOMETER...AND HAVE
INFORMED US OF A SCHEDULED OUTAGE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1430-1900
LOCAL TIME ON THURSDAY FOR THE CEILOMETER FIX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA TODAY WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
BOTH DAYS...ALONG COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S
TO POSSIBLY NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT VERY WELL FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS THINKING WITH EARLY MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BTV CWA IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND A SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTH TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE DELMARVA REGION ALONG
A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH STAYS SOUTH AND WILL HAVE LIMITED
IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORNING SHOWERS
PUSHING THROUGH THE SPRINGFIELD VT AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTL BORDER PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VT. LATEST RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MEAGER SURFACE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG...SO REALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDER BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO. WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE`LL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AS IT
SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGER. LOWS WILL
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...BUT COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. SHOWERS POP UP AGAIN MID-DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE TO MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND MOISTURE
AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH MORE SO ON THE NORTHERN
GREENS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY THOUGH A TAD WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S FOR SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...DESPITE MODEST DIFFERENCES HERE AND
THERE...MAIN THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY...TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. MOST
PROBLEMATIC CONTINUES TO BE THE GLOBAL MODELS` HANDLING OF
EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SAT/SUN
TIME FRAME...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS FEATURE EVOLVES IN THE
MEAN WSW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SEVERAL BULLSEYES
IN PRECIPITATION AND ATMOSPHERIC BUOYANCY ALONG THE FEATURES TRACK
SUGGEST CONTINUED FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ULTIMATELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON TIMING/SPEED
ISSUES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN LINE
WITH THE GEFS AND HPC APPEARS THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...SUNDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST/WARMEST DAY WITH
ALL SPOTS INTO THE 80S AS 18Z BLENDED 925 MB TEMPS AVERAGE AROUND
20C. AS AFOREMENTIONED MIDWESTERN ENERGY AND GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH TRACK EAST...INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER APPEAR REASONABLE BY MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK TOWARD SEASONAL EARLY JUNE NORMS. BY MID
WEEK...IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SCT/BKN VFR CIGS FROM 050-090 AGL EXPECTED
THROUGH 14Z WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED UNDER LIGHT WINDS.
AFTER 14Z...SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT MAIN THEME WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
DRY WEATHER. SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AFTER 00Z AS WINDS ABATE. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIGS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY..
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
SCT/BKN CIGS. COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION BUT OVERALL THEME IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z MONDAY ONWARD...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE. MAINLY VFR BUT SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 744 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE CEILOMETER AT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND (KRUT)-SOUTHERN
VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN OUT OF SERVICE SINCE MAY 29TH AT
0215Z. THUS...THIS SITE IS NOT REPORTING SKY COVER AT THIS TIME.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE
FAA AOCC THAT PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO FIX THE CEILOMETER...AND HAVE
INFORMED US OF A SCHEDULED OUTAGE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1430-1900
LOCAL TIME ON THURSDAY FOR THE CEILOMETER FIX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
610 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT ACTIVITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3 PM FOLLOWS...LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FIRE NEAR RALEIGH AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE FORMING
ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS AS THE ENTIRE AREA IS DROPPING SOUTH. THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS WILMINGTON AND ANDY NVA ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. CITING ALL OF THE
FORCING...STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS BY THIS
EVENING...IN FACT I HAVE INCREASED VALUES TO REPRESENT SLIGHTLY MORE
CONFIDENCE. SPC HAS ELEVATED THE AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK
HIGHLIGHTING MORE OF A WIND THAN HAIL THREAT. NICE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED BY THEN. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE PER EXPECTED CONVECTION AND
CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WRF AND GFS HAVE VERY DIFFERENT OPINIONS
REGARDING THE SOUTHERN TERMINUS OF THE COLD FRONT`S JOURNEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WRF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR SC COUNTIES WHILE THE
GFS TAKES IT DOWN INTO GA. FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THESE
IDEAS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS FRIDAY...TAPERING
TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY. EITHER WAY...MAX TEMPS
EACH DAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH 85
TO 90 EXPECTED FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY. LOWS EACH
NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID 60S
POSSIBLE NE SAT NIGHT. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...MAX AND MIN TEMPS
COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST AND DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES
MUCH MORE TOLERABLE THAN RECENT DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND JUST FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO PROVIDE FOR A DECENT START TO THE WEEK ON SUNDAY
BUT LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME LOW END CHC PCP
OVER PORTIONS OF SC...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST AND SHORTWAVE PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT FRONT WILL INCREASE CHC OF CONVECTION FOR MON AND MORE
SO FOR TUES AS FRONT REACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT MAY
BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WITH CHC OF PCP LINGERING INTO WED.
OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF EARLY TO
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MON
THROUGH WED. TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO 90 OVER
INTERIOR SC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VERY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGEST STORMS
COULD BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED LATER TODAY. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...WILL ADD TEMPO MVFR/TSRA FROM 20-23Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND FROM
21-00Z AT THE COASTAL TERMS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR
WITH STRONGER STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH TONIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
FROPA SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 09-12Z FRIDAY...AS WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
MORE ABUNDANT RAINFALL TODAY. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE VFR WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 PM...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
3 PM FOLLOWS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH JMPN7 CONSISTENTLY HOVERING AROUND 20 KNOTS.
41110 IS CLOSE TO FIVE FEET SO THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY
STABLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO A
MAXIMUM OF 6-8 FEET AS THE FETCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ABOUT 18 MORE
HOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW TO NE AND THEN E FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE
OF FRIDAY MORNING WHEN 4 TO 5 OR EVEN 6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE...SEAS
LESS THAN 4 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST E-NE WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTH BY MONDAY AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. ALTHOUGH A 9 SEC EASTERLY SWELL WILL EXIST
IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
PRIMARILY FORMED THROUGH A 4-5 SEC WIND CHOP FROM THE
EAST...BECOMING SOUTH ON MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT INCREASE THROUGH MON IN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
533 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND LINGER OVER NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 530 PM THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. MAIN LINE OF
STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD APPROACH
THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS
OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
PER LATEST HRRR-3KM AND RAP MODELS...CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY
DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST AND LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS
UNTIL COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
OR SO. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE WET GROUND AND A QUICK DROP-OFF IN WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TOWARD MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW POP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT WHERE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH LOW/MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...REGION REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY
THAT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH ON SAT BUT HIGH PRES SHOULD DOMINATE. THE
DETERMINISTIC 04/12Z GFS/ECM REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL...HOWEVER THE EC ENSMOS POPS INDICATE SOME SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM. NAM AND CMC ARE ALSO HINTING AT THIS
POSSIBILITY SO HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 70.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH MON AND STALL OR WASH
OUT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS AS INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THREAT
FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT AS AREA WILL BE
UNDER A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS RISE TO
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS MON THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90 DEGREE RANGE...WITH LOWS UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGES ARE SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
HVY AT TIMES WHICH MAY BRING CONDITIONS BRIEFLY BELOW VFR. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BTW 00 TO 03Z.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER TAF SITES THAT HAVE
RECEIVED RAIN. HAVE ADDED MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES. ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS...IT WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...THEREFORE
BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PC SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE TO E THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TYPICAL ISO/SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS MON
THROUGH MID WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO A SUMMERLIKE PATTERN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM THURSDAY...HAVE UPDATED FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS FRONT
DIVES SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND WINDS ARE BECOMING NW/N. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH ACTIVE STRONG CONVECTION UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
29 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET AND DIAMOND BUOY WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING
AS HIGH AS 9 TO 10 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
FORECAST FROM THE VARIOUS NEAR-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFF
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES BY AROUND 06Z OR SO. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS.
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE SCA FOR
THE REMAINING WATERS EXPIRE AT 11 PM TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...WINDS WILL BE NE 5-15 KT THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT
BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT SE
SUN WITH SEAS 2-3 FT THROUGH SUN. WINDS VEER FURTHER TO S ON MON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAKENING FRONT. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
150-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BM
MARINE...CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
345 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FIRE NEAR RALEIGH
AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS AS THE
ENTIRE AREA IS DROPPING SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
WILMINGTON AND ANDY NVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED. CITING ALL OF THE FORCING...STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL
AREAS BY THIS EVENING...IN FACT I HAVE INCREASED VALUES TO REPRESENT
SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE. SPC HAS ELEVATED THE AREA INTO A SLIGHT
RISK HIGHLIGHTING MORE OF A WIND THAN HAIL THREAT. NICE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED BY THEN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE PER EXPECTED
CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WRF AND GFS HAVE VERY DIFFERENT OPINIONS
REGARDING THE SOUTHERN TERMINUS OF THE COLD FRONT`S JOURNEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WRF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR SC COUNTIES WHILE THE
GFS TAKES IT DOWN INTO GA. FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THESE
IDEAS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS FRIDAY...TAPERING
TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY. EITHER WAY...MAX TEMPS
EACH DAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH 85
TO 90 EXPECTED FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY. LOWS EACH
NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID 60S
POSSIBLE NE SAT NIGHT. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...MAX AND MIN TEMPS
COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST AND DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES
MUCH MORE TOLERABLE THAN RECENT DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND JUST FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO PROVIDE FOR A DECENT START TO THE WEEK ON SUNDAY
BUT LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME LOW END CHC PCP
OVER PORTIONS OF SC...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST AND SHORTWAVE PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT FRONT WILL INCREASE CHC OF CONVECTION FOR MON AND MORE
SO FOR TUES AS FRONT REACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT MAY
BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WITH CHC OF PCP LINGERING INTO WED.
OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF EARLY TO
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MON
THROUGH WED. TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO 90 OVER
INTERIOR SC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VERY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGEST STORMS
COULD BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED LATER TODAY. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...WILL ADD TEMPO MVFR/TSRA FROM 20-23Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND FROM
21-00Z AT THE COASTAL TERMS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR
WITH STRONGER STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH TONIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
FROPA SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 09-12Z FRIDAY...AS WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
MORE ABUNDANT RAINFALL TODAY. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE VFR WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH JMPN7 CONSISTENTLY HOVERING AROUND 20
KNOTS. 41110 IS CLOSE TO FIVE FEET SO THE FORECAST REMAINS
RELATIVELY STABLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO A MAXIMUM OF 6-8 FEET AS THE FETCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
ABOUT 18 MORE HOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW TO NE AND THEN E FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE
OF FRIDAY MORNING WHEN 4 TO 5 OR EVEN 6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE...SEAS
LESS THAN 4 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST E-NE WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTH BY MONDAY AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. ALTHOUGH A 9 SEC EASTERLY SWELL WILL EXIST
IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
PRIMARILY FORMED THROUGH A 4-5 SEC WIND CHOP FROM THE
EAST...BECOMING SOUTH ON MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT INCREASE THROUGH MON IN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
336 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND LINGER OVER NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
OUR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF LINES OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA IN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LI VALUES
AROUND -5 AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. HAVE HAD
REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THESE STORMS IN PITT AND
TYRRELL COUNTIES. PER LATEST HRRR-3KM AND RAP MODELS...CONVECTION
SHOULD SLOWLY DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST AND LINGER INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS UNTIL COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA AROUND 06Z OR SO. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z
THEN TAPER OFF NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND A QUICK DROP-OFF IN WINDS BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TOWARD MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW POP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT WHERE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH LOW/MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM THURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF EASTERN NC
FRI MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT FRI TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THOUGH HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AS 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A
MODERATE VORTMAX WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON IN MEAN
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NOT CONFIDENT IN SHOWER/TSTORM PRODUCTION WITH THE
FEATURE BUT TRENDS SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL SLIGHTLY FRI YIELDING TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
REMOVED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED NE OF THE AREA WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
SENSIBLE WX ACROSS EASTERN NC. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAINING MILD...UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MON
AND STALLS/WASHES OUT WEST OF THE AREA...WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING SW
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OVER APPALACHIA. SW FLOW PERSISTS TUES
INTO TUES NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WED.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WEST OF HWY 17 MON/TUES AFTERNOONS AS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND
THREAT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO ABOVE CLIMO AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGES ARE SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
HVY AT TIMES WHICH MAY BRING CONDITIONS BRIEFLY BELOW VFR. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BTW 00 TO 03Z.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER TAF SITES THAT HAVE
RECEIVED RAIN. HAVE ADDED MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES. ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS...IT WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...THEREFORE
BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURS...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE TO E FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING SE MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
COLD FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE/SW FLOW COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS MON AFTERNOON WITH REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS/CEILINGS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH ACTIVE
STRONG CONVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUNDS.
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 29 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET AND DIAMOND BUOY
WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING AS HIGH AS 9 TO 10 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY.
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FORECAST FROM THE VARIOUS NEAR-TERM MODELS
INDICATE THAT WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES BY AROUND
06Z OR SO. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE SCA FOR THE REMAINING WATERS EXPIRE AT 11 PM
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURS...THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT N THEN NE
EARLY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE 5-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI WITH SEAS SUBSIDING 2-4 FT. DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SAT SHIFTING SE SUN AND
SEAS 2-3 FT THROUGH SUN. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
150-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BM
MARINE...CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
144 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FIRE NEAR
RALEIGH AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS
AS THE ENTIRE AREA IS DROPPING SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS WILMINGTON AND ANDY NVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. CITING ALL OF THE FORCING...STILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS BY THIS EVENING...IN FACT I HAVE
INCREASED VALUES TO REPRESENT SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE. SPC HAS
ELEVATED THE AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING MORE OF A WIND
THAN HAIL THREAT. NICE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED BY THEN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE PER EXPECTED CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MAKING IT INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A CHC OF SHWRS THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER SLOWLY AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE FRI AFTN. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE
SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE TO PROVIDE FURTHER CHC FOR
SHOWERS. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH
MOST OF THE WEATHER SOUTH AS WELL FOR LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY WITH
BOUNDARY OVER SC/GA CAUGHT BETWEEN BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NORTH AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN THE
FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY
TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
THE SOUTH AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO EXACT INFLUENCE.
WILL DEFINITELY KEEP CLOUDS AND PCP ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
FRI WITH A BIT MORE OF AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR NC FOR NOW. BY
SATURDAY AFTN EXPECT PCP MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CLOSE. CLOUD COVER AND PCP MAY LIMIT TEMPS DURING THE
DAY BUT WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH MID 80S MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY AND CLOSER TO 70 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND JUST FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO PROVIDE FOR A DECENT START TO THE WEEK ON SUNDAY
BUT LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME LOW END CHC PCP
OVER PORTIONS OF SC...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST AND SHORTWAVE PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT FRONT WILL INCREASE CHC OF CONVECTION FOR MON AND MORE
SO FOR TUES AS FRONT REACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT MAY
BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WITH CHC OF PCP LINGERING INTO WED.
OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF EARLY TO
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MON
THROUGH WED. TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO 90 OVER
INTERIOR SC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VERY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGEST STORMS
COULD BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED LATER TODAY. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...WILL ADD TEMPO MVFR/TSRA FROM 20-23Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND FROM
21-00Z AT THE COASTAL TERMS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR
WITH STRONGER STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH TONIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
FROPA SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 09-12Z FRIDAY...AS WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
MORE ABUNDANT RAINFALL TODAY. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE VFR WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH JMPN7 CONSISTENTLY HOVERING AROUND 20
KNOTS. 41110 IS CLOSE TO FIVE FEET SO THE FORECAST REMAINS
RELATIVELY STABLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO A MAXIMUM OF 6-8 FEET AS THE FETCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
ABOUT 18 MORE HOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE S-SW WHILE WINDS TO THE NORTH WILL BE OUT OF THE N-NE.
THIS FRONT MAY REMAIN IN VICINITY OR JUST SOUTH OF WATERS WITH
WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM NE TO E THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS OFF SHORE. WITH FRONT IN VICINITY OR JUST
SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT VARIABLE WIND
CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS UP AROUND 3 TO 5 FT FRI MORNING TO DIMINISH TO 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN LATER ON SATURDAY AS WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NE-E.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST E-NE WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTH BY MONDAY AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. ALTHOUGH A 9 SEC EASTERLY SWELL WILL EXIST
IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
PRIMARILY FORMED THROUGH A 4-5 SEC WIND CHOP FROM THE
EAST...BECOMING SOUTH ON MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT INCREASE THROUGH MON IN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1239 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND LINGER
OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM THURSDAY...NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OUTPUT OF THE
HIGH-RES MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO
FIRE IN THE RALEIGH AREA AND THE 3KM HRRR AND RAP SHOWS THIS
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST TOWARD THE COAST...PERHAPS
GETTING ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH LI`S ALREADY AROUND -6 WITH
CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THE LACK TO SHEAR AND STRONG
MID-LEVEL FORCING MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SVR STORMS BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH SOME ISOLATED SVR
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WITH THE HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...ANY STRONG STORMS WILL FEATURE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT DID
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY
AROUND 90 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 139 AM THU...MESO MODELS SHOWING FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY THEN
NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SO SKIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR...BUT REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER...INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM THURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF EASTERN NC
FRI MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT FRI TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THOUGH HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AS 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A
MODERATE VORTMAX WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON IN MEAN
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NOT CONFIDENT IN SHOWER/TSTORM PRODUCTION WITH THE
FEATURE BUT TRENDS SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL SLIGHTLY FRI YIELDING TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
REMOVED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED NE OF THE AREA WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
SENSIBLE WX ACROSS EASTERN NC. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAINING MILD...UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MON
AND STALLS/WASHES OUT WEST OF THE AREA...WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING SW
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OVER APPALACHIA. SW FLOW PERSISTS TUES
INTO TUES NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WED.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WEST OF HWY 17 MON/TUES AFTERNOONS AS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND
THREAT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO ABOVE CLIMO AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 624 AM THU...MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS DISSIPATED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREA TAFS. SCATTERED AREA OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN TENNESSEE. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING THE MAIN BUILD OF MCS TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL TROUGH/POSSIBLE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM CLOUDS MAY KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP TAFS DRY DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES STARTING MID AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS THAT WILL FORM. SUB
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BOTH CIGS AND VIS INSIDE THE STORMS. FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WIND SHIFTING TO
NORTHERLY AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURS...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE TO E FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING SE MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
COLD FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE/SW FLOW COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS MON AFTERNOON WITH REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS/CEILINGS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. SEAS AT DIAMOND BUOY HAVE
BUILT TO 10 FEET. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 29 KNOTS AT DIAMOND
BUOY AT 28 KNOTS OFF OREGON INLET. NO CHANGES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS TIGHT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT CONTINUES AHEAD OF SLOW-
MOVING WAVY COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS VA/WV/KY. FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX. WIND AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURS...THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT N THEN NE
EARLY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE 5-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI WITH SEAS SUBSIDING 2-4 FT. DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SAT SHIFTING SE SUN AND SEAS
2-3 FT THROUGH SUN. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
150-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
145 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH VERY WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM WEDNESDAY...STILL SOME TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE POPS FOR
THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF THU. THIS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST UPSTREAM...1 TO 2 CWA LENGTHS AWAY...
AND BLENDING IN THE AVAILABLE 00Z MODEL DATA. SUBSIDENCE STILL
KEEPING CONVECTION AT BAY ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT...WEAK
DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCC/MCS WILL PUSH TO AND
PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FA DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE PRE-DAWN
THU HOURS. WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING THE FA FROM THE
NW...THE REMNANT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND OUTFLOWS FROM
CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM...THE COMBINED SFC FEATURES WITH
DYNAMICS ALOFT...ALBEIT WEAK...WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY PRIOR TO SUNRISE THU. LATEST MODEL SREF
RUNS CONFIRM THIS PROBABILITY...WITH LATEST HRRR SHOWING EVEN SFC
BASED INSTABILITY AVBL TO FEED THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION DURING THE
PRE-DAWN THU HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LIKELY OBSERVE WIDESPREAD
70 DEGREE LOWS WITH ONLY ISOLATED UPPER 60S PER LATEST AVBL MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE. SW WINDS TO REMAIN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PREVENTING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE DROP OFF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CAROLINAS ARE CAUGHT BETWEEN A
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOT
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE PUSHED
TEMPS INTO THE 90S INLAND FROM THE BEACHES TODAY. DESPITE A GOOD
DEAL OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED TO DEEP
CONVECTION BY A LAYER OF WARM DRY AIR BETWEEN 825 MB (THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER) AND 700 MB. THIS IS WHERE THE CUMULUS STARTS TO
LOOK RAGGED. CHANCES FOR A DAYTIME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ARE
PRETTY SMALL AS A RESULT.
THIS EVENING A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL REACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS IS THE REMNANT OF LAST
NIGHT`S POWERFUL MCS ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI...BUT WILL HAVE AN
UPHILL BATTLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
CLOUDINESS HERE. THIS IS DUE TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
850-500 MB LAYER. THIS LAYER IS SHOWN BY ALL 12Z MODELS TO GRADUALLY
MOISTEN OVERNIGHT VIA WESTERLY WINDS FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF A LATE
NIGHT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FLORENCE TO WHITEVILLE TO WILMINGTON. THESE PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.
WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT (AT LEAST 25 KT
AT 1000 FT AGL) AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS CLOUD COVER LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY WARM...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO
THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. THIS IS 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
WOULD BE TYPICAL FOR MID JULY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...H5 SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED OVER TX AND
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DIRECT HARD-TO-TIME...GENERALLY
WEAK... IMPULSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY THU. THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION
WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENTLY SPC
DEPICTS SMALL PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THU. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR LATER THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE...WITH LESS AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT THU...AND WITH THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH INTO SC FRI RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC ZONES). CUT BACK ON MAX TEMPERATURES BY A
CATEGORY OR TWO FOR THU WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT THUS FRI/S HIGHS ONLY A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN THU. OTHERWISE...BREEZY S-SW WINDS THURSDAY
GIVEN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BEFORE WARM BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WAVERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
WHILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY SINCE IT GETS IMPEDED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE ELONGATED EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE SC ZONES. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND FORECAST PROFILES ARE UNANIMOUS IN DROPPING PWATS BELOW
1 INCH WITH LITTLE-TO-NO SATURATED LAYERS WITHIN THE COLUMN. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL DROP POP TO
SILENT SINCE COVERAGE OF 0.01 QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANYTHING.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE AROUND TO RIGHT ABOVE CLIMO...MID/UPR
80S FOR HIGHS AND MID/UPR 60S FOR LOWS.
MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY FLAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING TSTM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTN...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AIDED BY A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH AT
THE SAME TIME THAT 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CLIMB ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE IT TO THE
LOCAL AREA. FOR THIS REASON WILL SHOW CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH CHC POP EACH DAY FOR
DIURNAL TSTMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AFTER 16Z WHEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...CAPABLE OF REDUCING VSBYS/CIGS TO SUB
VFR LEVELS.
WINDS WILL BE SW NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SW AFTER DAYBREAK...BECOMING GUSTY UP
TO 22 KT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED AROUND 16Z. THIS COULD BE EVEN LATER IF MORNING CLOUDS DO
NOT THIN AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED. WILL INDICATE VCTS GIVEN
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING. FAVORED AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ALONG A PIEDMONT TROUGH
KFLO/KLBT. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF VCTS LATE IN THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT N OF KLBT/KILM
AND MOVE SE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES WITH THE
FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG ACROSS THE ILM LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO
RESULT IN A 210-240 DEGREE RANGE FOR WIND DIRECTIONS. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT WITH 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. LATEST 41110 BUOY HAS
INDICATED A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT RISE IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS...TO 3 TO 4
FT...SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST OMR...OTHER MARINE
REPORTS...INDICATE VERY ACTIVE 10-20 KT WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING. WITH ALL THIS SAID...HAVE
RECONFIGURED THE START TIME OF THE SCA TO AN EARLIER TIME...600
AM EDT THURSDAY. MWW AND HWO HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE LIES ALONG 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AS FAR WEST AS THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. A WEST-SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WIND NORTH OF THIS
RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE CAROLINAS. TYPICALLY THIS PATTERN YIELDS
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS PLUS WHATEVER SEABREEZE CIRCULATION
MAY EXIST. HOWEVER IN THIS CASE WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS LOW WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF EASTERLY 11-12
SECOND SWELL. LOOK FOR SEAS TO BUILD BY 1-2 FEET OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THURSDAY IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE SC WATERS DURING
FRIDAY PRIOR TO STALLING. THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS FROM SURF CITY TO SOUTH SANTEE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
WATERS DURING SATURDAY...CREATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF E/NE WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT AT SPEEDS ONLY AROUND 10 KTS. LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SE AND THEN
SOUTH...BUT STILL WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. ALTHOUGH A 9 SEC
EASTERLY SWELL WILL EXIST IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE PRIMARILY FORMED THROUGH A 4-5 SEC
WIND CHOP FROM THE EAST...BECOMING SOUTH ON MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...REGARDLESS OF PRIMARY WAVE
DIRECTION.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
356 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED INTERACTION BETWEEN A SURFACE FRONT...CAPPING
INVERSION...AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO THE WEST...WILL LEAD TO GREAT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SEEMINGLY THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR OUTLOOK. IT GENERATES
STORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...THEN BRINGS THEM
EAST WHILE CONVERTING THEM INTO AN MCS. IF THIS HAPPENS...MOST OF
OUR OKLAHOMA COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE RAIN...AND POSSIBLY STRONG
WINDS.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAKS ARE LIKELY. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE TIMING AND LOCATION. CHANCES DO
RISE...HOWEVER...OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVES PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA ON
TUESDAY...PROBABLY BRINGING A RELATIVELY MILD AND DRY DAY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 91 73 88 / 50 40 40 40
HOBART OK 72 98 72 91 / 40 20 40 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 100 74 100 / 30 10 20 20
GAGE OK 67 91 69 83 / 50 40 70 40
PONCA CITY OK 71 85 72 84 / 50 50 70 60
DURANT OK 74 94 73 92 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
219 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT A
DRYING TREND LATER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING FAIR/DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM MODERATE RAFL WILL SPREAD ACRS THE NRN
2/3RDS OF THE CWA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS AREA OF STEADY
RAIN IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF SFC LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER
THE WV/MD PANHANDLE. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EWD JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE INTO THE NRN DELMARVA/SRN NJ BY
12Z...THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES A MORE SHOWERY NATURE TO THE PCPN
PATTERN OVER THE SRN TIER ZONES WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TSTM CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY +RA. EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH CLEARING LINE MOVG SEWD AS PUSH OF
MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PCPN IS BASICALLY OVER BY 15Z AS COOLER/DRIER NW FLOW ARRIVES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LIFTING UP THE NE COAST. CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD SHWR LATER THIS EVE INTO TNT OVER THE NERN ZONES AS THE
UPPER TROF AXIS/850MB THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY SO REMOVED MENTION OF
PCPN. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OH VLY AT 12Z FRI WILL
MAINTAIN FAIR/DRY WX INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING WARMTH/HUMIDITY COMBINED
WITH APPROACH OF MID-UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUGGESTING UNSETTLED CONDS FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO TUES. GFS
A BIT STRONGER THAN THE EC WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH ON
MON...SO NUDGED POPS UP A BIT THERE.
POSS FOR SCT TSTMS CONTINUES LATE WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY DRY NORTH.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVG FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PRODUCE RAIN
AND REDUCED CIGS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM OBS AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA INDICATE THE WORST FLYING
CONDS WILL BE CLOSEST TO SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. KJST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN UNDER AN IFR/LIFR CIG THRU DAWN DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AT IT/S RIDGETOP LOCATION. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT A
PRE-DAWN PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT THE OTHER SOUTHERN PA
AIRFIELDS...INCLUDING KAOO/KMDT/KLNS. RADAR AT 05Z SHOWS A CLUSTER
OF TSRA NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER ARND KCBE. AS SFC LOW MOVES
EAST...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSRA AFFECTING KLNS ARND 09Z.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT PENNSYLVANIA ARND 12Z...BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN AND A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS...AS A MUCH DRIER
NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN LATER
TODAY WILL BE THE WGUSTS...WHICH SHOULD BE ARND 20KTS BASED ON
LATEST BUFKIT OUTPUT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GRT LKS THIS EVENING...CAUSING THE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE SOUTH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1051 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
AT THIS TIME...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KS...WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION RECENTLY
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. IN SOUTH DAKOTA...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE 850MB BOUNDARY...OR POSSIBLY EVEN 825MB. SO THEREFORE WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT A WHILE FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
THE BOUNDARY ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH SUCH STRONG CONVECTION STRAIGHT SOUTH OF
US...THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AT 850MB WILL BE DISTURBED.
SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW WIDESPREAD ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATIENTLY WAITING FOR SOME 00Z UTC MODEL DATA TO
COME IN TO HELP ANSWER THAT QUESTION. BUT THE RAP13 CERTAINLY
KEEPS AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT...EDGING
SLOWLY EASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WARM FRONT SETTING UP NORTH OF THE CWA AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STARTING TO SEE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF HIGHWAY
14 UP INTO SOUTHERN ND...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS STARTING TO GET
GOING IN NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL SD. ANY SEVERE
CHANCES IN OUR CWA WOULD LIKELY BE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THINGS START PUSHING
EAST. INSTABILITY IS BEST IN THAT AREA ALONG WITH SOME DECENT WIND
SHEAR. LOW LEVEL EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT IN THE NORTH...AND VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE EAST SHOULD INHIBIT
SEVERE CHANCES. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRETTY HIGH POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THINGS WILL PULL
EAST...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS ON AVERAGE THAN WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN HANG AROUND AND COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR SATURDAY...
WHICH IS GOING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WHAT MANY OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST TAKING THEM LITERALLY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
ON SATURDAY NIGHT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE SO SHOULD
BE A QUIET NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT SUPPORT AND MOISTURE
SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
A DECENT CHANCE FOR FEW IF ANY CLOUDS WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED LOWS A
DEGREE OR TWO...MAINLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
BY SUNDAY THIS DRY COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS SO ONLY CARRYING
CHANCE POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST OF INTERSTATE
29 WITH LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG AND EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANE FOR RAINFALL. MOT
MUCH INSTABILITY SO ONLY CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY
REBOUNDING INTO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER READINGS
SHOULD BE EAST.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK RIDGING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO
PLANS TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT...JUST A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRETTY MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCE COMING
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY RIDGING ALOFT
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SO CHANCE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THINK THE HRRR IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
PLACEMENT...AND IN GENERAL WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH NEAR
HIGHWAY 60 ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE GREATEST SHOWER COVERAGE
AND REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY DOWN THERE. STRATUS MAY DEVELOP WITH
MIXING TOMORROW MORNING...AND IF IT DOES SO IT WILL BE STUBBORN TO
LEAVE. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...GILLISPIE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1254 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.
UPPER LEVEL VORT CENTER SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST SD LATE THIS
MORNING WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL WAS SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE UPPER VORT CENTER. ADJUSTED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND UPDATED FORECAST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WEAK TROF ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SITUATED OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LIMITED CIN...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOSS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SO DESPITE A 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...PROFILES SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY FRIDAY.
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...AND SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE
UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. H85
TEMPERATURES DIP TO +5C BY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THOUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
FAIRLY COOL AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION OF VCTS AT KATY FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING LOWERING CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1054 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL VORT CENTER SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST SD LATE THIS
MORNING WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL WAS SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE UPPER VORT CENTER. ADJUSTED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND UPDATED FORECAST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WEAK TROF ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SITUATED OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LIMITED CIN...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOSS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SO DESPITE A 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...PROFILES SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY FRIDAY.
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...AND SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE
UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. H85
TEMPERATURES DIP TO +5C BY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THOUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
FAIRLY COOL AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. MORE
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
102 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH 5PM THIS AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO/SQUALL LINE
MOVING AT 60 MPH WILL MOVE INTO RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN 1-2PM...THE JONESBORO AREA AROUND
2PM...THE MEMPHIS METRO AND JACKSON AREA BETWEEN 3-4PM...AND
FINALLY IN THE TUPELO AND CORINTH AREA BETWEEN 4-5PM. DAMAGING
WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SECONDARY
THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS PRODUCED
TWO TO A LITTLE OVER THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCORDING TO
MORNING COOP REPORTS. ADDITIONAL COMPLEX IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AND PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THIS LINE...TO INCLUDE EXPECTED
DISTURBANCES/TRAINING STORMS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY COULD
EASILY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MIDSOUTH PROMPTING THE NEED FOR A FFA.
A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CWA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOW ECHO IN SW MISSOURI/NW ARKANSAS TODAY. THIS LINE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BEING WARNED WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THE
OZARKS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF I-40. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEHIND THIS LINE LATER TONIGHT ADDING
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
JAB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. POPS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO LIKELY IN THIS ZONE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY
IMPACT THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ENHANCED
SEVERE WEATHER RISK AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AND
SHEAR INCREASES. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WIND
DAMAGE...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD...AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES
MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED.
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
JLH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS INDICATE THAT
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. MORE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ATTM. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE AIDED BY WARM
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SYNOPSIS...
TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RING OF FIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT COVERAGE...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE THE ELUSIVE PUZZLE
PIECES ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR
SO.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND GROW INTO A MCS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAIN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL
VERY DEPENDENT ON EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AND SOME
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION.
DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AND MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
A MCS. THE NEXT WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH LESS COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MENTIONABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE INTERIVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE FIRST MAIN COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BE NEAR
DAYBREAK EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 KTS WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS 10-15 KFT.
SWC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1017 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH 5PM THIS AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO/SQUALL LINE
MOVING AT 60 MPH WILL MOVE INTO RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN 1-2PM...THE JONESBORO AREA AROUND
2PM...THE MEMPHIS METRO AND JACKSON AREA BETWEEN 3-4PM...AND
FINALLY IN THE TUPELO AND CORINTH AREA BETWEEN 4-5PM. DAMAGING
WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SECONDARY
THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS PRODUCED
TWO TO A LITTLE OVER THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCORDING TO
MORNING COOP REPORTS. ADDITIONAL COMPLEX IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AND PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THIS LINE...TO INCLUDE EXPECTED
DISTURBANCES/TRAINING STORMS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY COULD
EASILY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MIDSOUTH PROMPTING THE NEED FOR A FFA.
A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CWA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOW ECHO IN SW MISSOURI/NW ARKANSAS TODAY. THIS LINE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BEING WARNED WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THE
OZARKS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF I-40. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEHIND THIS LINE LATER TONIGHT ADDING
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. POPS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO LIKELY IN THIS ZONE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY
IMPACT THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ENHANCED
SEVERE WEATHER RISK AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AND
SHEAR INCREASES. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WIND
DAMAGE...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD...AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES
MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED.
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
JLH
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS INDICATE THAT
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. MORE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ATTM. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE AIDED BY WARM
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SYNOPSIS...
TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RING OF FIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT COVERAGE...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE THE ELUSIVE PUZZLE
PIECES ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR
SO.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND GROW INTO A MCS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAIN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL
VERY DEPENDENT ON EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AND SOME
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION.
DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AND MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
A MCS. THE NEXT WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH LESS COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MENTIONABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN MCS THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS MOVED OFF
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING WITH DIURNAL
CU AGAIN EXPECTED OVER ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER MCS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS MAY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. ADDED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPOS AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KTUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. KTUP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BRUNT OF THE
ACTIVITY BUT THERE MAY BE NEARBY CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING AND
COVERED WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. TIMING AND LOCATION IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT WITH MCS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEBRIS CLOUD AND CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE NEAR
THE STALLING OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT. PLAN TO KEEP VFR CIGS FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATER TONIGHT IN AREAS
WHERE RAINS OCCUR.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 KTS OR
LESS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
923 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS PRODUCED
TWO TO A LITTLE OVER THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCORDING TO
MORNING COOP REPORTS. ADDITIONAL COMPLEX IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AND PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THIS LINE...TO INCLUDE EXPECTED
DISTURBANCES/TRAINING STORMS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY COULD
EASILY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MIDSOUTH PROMPTING THE NEED FOR A FFA.
A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CWA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOW ECHO IN SW MISSOURI/NW ARKANSAS TODAY. THIS LINE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BEING WARNED WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THE
OZARKS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF I-40. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEHIND THIS LINE LATER TONIGHT ADDING
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. POPS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO LIKELY IN THIS ZONE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY
IMPACT THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ENHANCED
SEVERE WEATHER RISK AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AND
SHEAR INCREASES. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WIND
DAMAGE...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD...AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES
MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED.
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
JLH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS INDICATE THAT
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. MORE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ATTM. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE AIDED BY WARM
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SYNOPSIS...
TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RING OF FIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT COVERAGE...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE THE ELUSIVE PUZZLE
PIECES ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR
SO.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND GROW INTO A MCS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAIN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL
VERY DEPENDENT ON EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AND SOME
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION.
DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AND MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
A MCS. THE NEXT WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH LESS COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MENTIONABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN MCS THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS MOVED OFF
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING WITH DIURNAL
CU AGAIN EXPECTED OVER ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER MCS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS MAY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. ADDED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPOS AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KTUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. KTUP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BRUNT OF THE
ACTIVITY BUT THERE MAY BE NEARBY CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING AND
COVERED WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. TIMING AND LOCATION IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT WITH MCS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEBRIS CLOUD AND CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE NEAR
THE STALLING OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT. PLAN TO KEEP VFR CIGS FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATER TONIGHT IN AREAS
WHERE RAINS OCCUR.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 KTS OR
LESS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
806 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. POPS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO LIKELY IN THIS ZONE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY
IMPACT THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ENHANCED
SEVERE WEATHER RISK AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AND
SHEAR INCREASES. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WIND
DAMAGE...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD...AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES
MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED.
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS INDICATE THAT
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. MORE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ATTM. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE AIDED BY WARM
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SYNOPSIS...
TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RING OF FIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT COVERAGE...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE THE ELUSIVE PUZZLE
PIECES ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR
SO.
.NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND GROW INTO A MCS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAIN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL
VERY DEPENDENT ON EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AND SOME
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION.
DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AND MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
A MCS. THE NEXT WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH LESS COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MENTIONABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN MCS THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS MOVED OFF
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING WITH DIURNAL
CU AGAIN EXPECTED OVER ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER MCS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS MAY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. ADDED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPOS AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KTUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. KTUP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BRUNT OF THE
ACTIVITY BUT THERE MAY BE NEARBY CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING AND
COVERED WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. TIMING AND LOCATION IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT WITH MCS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEBRIS CLOUD AND CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE NEAR
THE STALLING OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT. PLAN TO KEEP VFR CIGS FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATER TONIGHT IN AREAS
WHERE RAINS OCCUR.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 KTS OR
LESS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
644 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS INDICATE THAT
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. MORE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ATTM. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE AIDED BY WARM
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SYNOPSIS...
TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RING OF FIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT COVERAGE...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE THE ELUSIVE PUZZLE
PIECES ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR
SO.
.NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND GROW INTO A MCS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAIN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL
VERY DEPENDENT ON EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AND SOME
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION.
DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AND MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
A MCS. THE NEXT WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH LESS COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MENTIONABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN MCS THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS MOVED OFF
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING WITH DIURNAL
CU AGAIN EXPECTED OVER ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER MCS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS MAY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. ADDED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPOS AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KTUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. KTUP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BRUNT OF THE
ACTIVITY BUT THERE MAY BE NEARBY CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING AND
COVERED WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. TIMING AND LOCATION IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT WITH MCS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEBRIS CLOUD AND CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE NEAR
THE STALLING OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT. PLAN TO KEEP VFR CIGS FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATER TONIGHT IN AREAS
WHERE RAINS OCCUR.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 KTS OR
LESS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
457 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS INDICATE THAT
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. MORE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ATTM. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE AIDED BY WARM
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SYNOPSIS...
TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RING OF FIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT COVERAGE...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE THE ELUSIVE PUZZLE
PIECES ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR
SO.
.NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND GROW INTO A MCS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAIN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL
VERY DEPENDENT ON EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AND SOME
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION.
DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AND MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
A MCS. THE NEXT WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH LESS COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MENTIONABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS KJBR AND KMKL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH TSRAS. BY 10-11Z...EXPECT LINGERING SHRAS AND
POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT KJBR AND KMKL THROUGH 14Z.
THEREAFTER...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REST OF FORECAST AS LATEST HRRR
SHOWS A DYING MCS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER 15Z. IF MCS WOULD
MOVE IN THEN SHRAS COULD KEEP CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MVFR INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THOUGHT OF SCT TSRAS FROM
DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPING BETWEEN 17-20Z. CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH
AFTER 1Z. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THEREAFTER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON DIRECTION AS CONVECTION WILL PLAY
HAVOC WITH DIRECTION/SPEED.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
353 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
Mid-level heights have decreased slightly from those observed
yesterday but temperatures continue to climb above normal across the
western half of the Lone Star State. The flow aloft over West
Central TX is light owing to the presence of the subtropical ridge,
but strong westerlies north of the ridge continue to promote lee
troughing, maintaining a persistent, southerly flow. This has kept
dewpoints well into the 60s, which combined with these warm
temperatures, has resulted in heat indices near 100 degrees.
Some enhancement has been noted in the water vapor imagery over the
southern High Plains. There isn`t much curvature in the flow but
mesoscale ascent tied to the right entrance region of the upper
tropospheric jet streak over the Central Plains is the likely
culprit. At the surface, a weak cold front has moved south and was
near a Hobbs, to Spur, to Childress line as of 3 PM. There isn`t
currently much in the way of a cu field along this boundary but it`s
worth noting that the RAP and several of the hi-res CAMS are trying
to develop thunderstorms this evening, mainly west and northwest of
Sweetwater. The cap remains quite strong and any thunderstorm threat
is conditional on surface temps being warm enough to break said cap.
However, given the steering flow being slightly north of west,
convection is unlikely across the SJT CWA and the dry forecast has
been retained. Farther south, expect low clouds to develop again
late tonight, spreading north to near a San Angelo to Brownwood line
by sunrise. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.
The 800-750 mb thermal ridge (with temps of 19-22C) overspreading
the area today is progged to cool by a few degrees on Friday, but
we`ll maintain above normal temperatures once again, with highs in
the mid to upper 90s. Any clouds that develop overnight will erode
by midday, leaving a scattered cu field over the east during the
afternoon hours with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. South winds will
continue at 10 to 20 mph.
Johnson
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
The main forecast concerns are with rain chances Saturday night
through Monday night, with a potential for strong/severe storms
and locally heavy rainfall. Overall, appears that the northeastern
third or half of our area could have the best rain chance and
rainfall amounts.
Will have one additional hot day Saturday, with the broad, flat
ridge aloft still holding in place. This ridge will then weaken and
be suppressed farther to the south and southwest, as weak shortwaves
move across the southern Rockies, southern Plains and Texas.
Models are at odds on whether convection will develop south into
our northern counties Saturday night, and on how far south the
effective surface cold front will sag. Continuing with slight
chance PoP for our northern counties (along/north of Interstate 20).
Low-level jet would help to sustain convection well into the night.
The best chance and coverage of convection across our area looks
to develop across our northern counties late Sunday afternoon,
expanding southeast Sunday night. This may be ehnanced by a shortwave
tracking into the area, and may have a MCS Saturday night sustained
by low-level jet. With uncertainty in the forecast timing and
placement of weak shortwaves and on where the effective front will
be, raising PoPs cautiously Sunday night across much of our area,
with low PoPs continuing on Monday.
Northwest flow aloft develops on Monday and continues through
Tuesday. Have held off carrying slight chance PoP beyond Monday
night, but this will need to be monitored. The setup aloft may be
conducive for showers/thunderstorms to develop over the higher
terrain of northeastern new Mexico during the afternoon hours,
especially especially if coincident with the arrival of a weak
shortwave. The steering flow aloft would allow this convection to
move southeast toward (possibly into) our area.
Still looking hotter and drier for the middle to late part of
next week, when the upper high over the Baja Peninsula and
western Mexico tries to expand northeast again into Texas.
Have trended hotter with the maximum temperatures, but not to
the extent indicated by the GFS.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 73 97 73 96 74 / 10 5 10 10 20
San Angelo 73 98 73 98 73 / 5 0 5 5 10
Junction 72 95 73 94 73 / 0 0 0 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
349 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
Mid-level heights have decreased slightly from those observed
yesterday but temperatures continue to climb above normal across the
western half of the Lone Star State. The flow aloft over West
Central TX is light owing to the presence of the subtropical ridge,
but strong westerlies north of the ridge continue to promote lee
troughing, maintaining a persistent, southerly flow. This has kept
dewpoints well into the 60s, which combined with these warm
temperatures, has resulted in heat indices near 100 degrees.
Some enhancement has been noted in the water vapor imagery over the
southern High Plains. There isn`t much curvature in the flow but
mesoscale ascent tied to the right entrance region of the upper
tropospheric jet streak over the Central Plains is the likely
culprit. At the surface, a weak cold front has moved south and was
near a Hobbs, to Spur, to Childress line as of 3 PM. There isn`t
currently much in the way of a cu field along this boundary but it`s
worth noting that the RAP and several of the hi-res CAMS are trying
to develop thunderstorms this evening, mainly west and northwest of
Sweetwater. The cap remains quite strong and any thunderstorm threat
is conditional on surface temps being warm enough to break said cap.
However, given the steering flow being slightly north of west,
convection is unlikely across the SJT CWA and the dry forecast has
been retained. Farther south, expect low clouds to develop again
late tonight, spreading north to near a San Angelo to Brownwood line
by sunrise. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.
The 800-750 mb thermal ridge (with temps of 19-22C) overspreading
the area today is progged to cool by a few degrees on Friday, but
we`ll maintain above normal temperatures once again, with highs in
the mid to upper 90s. Any clouds that develop overnight will erode
by midday, leaving a scattered cu field over the east during the
afternoon hours with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. South winds will
continue at 10 to 20 mph.
Johnson
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
The main forecast concerns are with rain chances Saturday night
through Monday night, with a potential for strong/severe storms
and locally heavy rainfall. Overall, appears that the northeastern
third or half of our area could have the best rain chance and
rainfall amounts.
Will have one additional hot day Saturday, with the broad, flat
ridge aloft still holding in place. This ridge will then weaken
and be suppressed farther to the south and southwest, as shortwaves
move across the southern Rockies, southern Plains and Texas.
Models are at odds on whether convection will develop south into
our northern counties Saturday night, and on how far south the
effective surface cold front will sag. Continuing with slight
chance PoP for our northern counties (along/north of Interstate 20).
Low-level jet would help to sustain convection well into the night.
The best chance and coverage of convection across our area looks
to develop across our northern counties late Sunday afternoon,
expanding southeast Sunday night. This may be ehnanced by a shortwave
tracking into the area, and may have a MCS Saturday night sustained
by low-level jet. With uncertainty in the forecast timing and
placement of weak shortwaves and on where the effective front will
be, raising PoPs cautiously Sunday night across much of our area,
with low PoPs continuing on Monday.
Northwest flow develops on Monday and continues through Tuesday.
Have held off carrying sliht chance PoP beyond Monday night, but
this will need to be monitored. The setup aloft may be conducive
for showers/ thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain of
northeastern new Mexico during the afternoon hours, especially
with the arrival of a weak shortwave. The steering flow aloft
would allow this convection to move southeast toward (possibly
into) our area.
Still looking hotter and drier for the middle to late part of
next week, when the upper high over the Baja Peninsula and
western Mexico tries to expand northeast again into Texas.
Have trended hotter with the maximum temperatures, but not to
the extent indicated by the GFS.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 73 97 73 96 74 / 10 5 10 10 20
San Angelo 73 98 73 98 73 / 5 0 5 5 10
Junction 72 95 73 94 73 / 0 0 0 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...
SLIGHT COOLING SPREAD IN BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY.
IT HAS BEEN HEATING UP SOME ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NOW
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH FROM AROUND O`DONNELL THROUGH POST TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE. AIRMASS THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
A BIT SHORT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. SHORT TERM RAP SOLUTION...
HOWEVER...HAS INSISTED ON BREAKING THUNDERSTORMS OUT ALL DAY NEAR
ABOVE-MENTIONED BOUNDARY WHICH GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE BASE AND VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT CERTAINLY IS NOT A GIVEN. WE WILL HOLD TO A
CONDITIONAL LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THIS ZONE DURING THE EVENING
WHICH WOULD GIVE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER TONIGHT WOULD FOLLOW THE PATH OF PROJECTED MCS
FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL OUTFLOWS AND THUNDER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY EDGING
INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO LAY ANOTHER FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON OUR DOOR-STEP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A MORE MOIST
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PROBABLY PRECEDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MCS-TYPE STORMS FROM VICINITY RATON MESA OR SANGRE DE CHRISTI
TOWARDS OUR AREA LATE TOMORROW. MINUSCULE TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR
TOMORROW FOLLOWING ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND IMPROVING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GRAZE THE REGION AND
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS IN/NEAR THE AREA.
INITIALLY...FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES MAY RESIDE TO OUR NORTH...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE THE COMPLEX COULD CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY THERE FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD
THEN MATERIALIZE LATE SATURDAY AS THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED SURFACE
BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHWARD AND ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH DETAILS REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS...THERE
APPEARS A GOOD SHOT OF ANOTHER MCS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE NWP TENDS TO FAVOR THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR THIS MCS...AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS
WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...THOUGH IF THE 12Z NAM IS
CORRECT...THE FRONT AND CONVECTION WILL BE SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH
INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND WITH THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW LIKELY TO OUR SOUTH...THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND
UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. MODEST INSTABILITY AND
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING PWATS WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY GRADUALLY WANE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND EVEN THOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL...LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO OUR WEST TO PERSIST INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE TEMPERED BACK POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION FOR
MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN TRY
AND BUILD BACK THIS WAY FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO...THOUGH ONE OR MORE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY COULD PERHAPS
IMPROVE STORM CHANCES LOCALLY. CONFIDENCE ON IF/WHEN STORM CHANCES
WOULD PEAK NEXT WEEK IS LOW...AND HAVE KEPT THE POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY /ASSUMING
THE COLD FRONT IS NOT WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE/...WITH A NICE COOL
DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEHIND THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD FOLLOW NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK...THOUGH THE GFS DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAK FROPA TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 95 65 89 61 / 20 20 40 20 50
TULIA 67 95 67 88 63 / 20 10 30 20 50
PLAINVIEW 69 94 69 92 64 / 20 10 20 20 40
LEVELLAND 68 96 69 95 66 / 20 10 20 20 30
LUBBOCK 71 97 70 96 67 / 20 10 10 20 30
DENVER CITY 67 97 68 99 67 / 20 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 66 96 69 97 67 / 20 10 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 73 99 72 95 68 / 20 10 30 20 50
SPUR 72 97 71 96 68 / 20 10 10 20 30
ASPERMONT 73 100 73 99 70 / 20 10 10 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/23
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
345 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
AT 3 AM...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE THERE IS A MORE IMPRESSIVE LINE OF
STORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS. CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THAT THIS LINE
WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS THIS MORNING. AS IT
DOES...IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 70 TO 90 MPH WINDS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN CRANBERRY
BOGS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IN BOTH THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO
RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH LONE ROCK AND BOSCOBEL ARE
REPORTING DENSE FOG. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS FOG...HAVE
OPTED TO HANDLE THIS FOG THROUGH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN
05.12Z AND 05.14Z.
FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THE GFS...ECMWF...
ARW...AND NMM SUGGEST THAT A WEAK TO MODERATE 600 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES.
THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS TROUGH...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERING OPINIONS
ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND
THIS AFFECTS HOW THE MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. OVERALL THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF A CHARLES CITY IOWA TO
NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...THE GFS...ARW...AND NMM HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA DRY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE THEIR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FINALLY...
THE NAM HAS ITS PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE OVERALL THOUGHT WAS TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND MESO MODELS AND GO
DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
ON FRIDAY...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE STILL SHOWING UP IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...
DECIDED TO KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TROUGH
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN. WITH THERE STILL BEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES CONFINED MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
WITH THERE BEING QUITE A BIT OF TIMING CONSISTENCY ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAISED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP
INTO THE 55 TO 64 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
LESS THAN 30 KNOTS...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ITS
PASSAGE.
ON SUNDAY...CONSIDERED TAKING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER THE 05.00Z ECMWF IS HOLDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA. AS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...IT KEEPS A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY. DUE TO
THIS POSSIBILITY KEPT A 15 TO 24 PERCENT PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
IN THE FORECAST.
LIKE YESTERDAY...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE REGION. DUE TO THIS REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THIS TIME PERIOD.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THEIR TIMING OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THIS...JUST STAYED WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. 05.04Z
OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE A 7 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT
KLSE AND 9 DEGREES AT KRST. GIVEN THE SHORT NIGHTS...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE FOG WILL BE ABLE TO FORM...OR IF IT DOES...THAT IT WILL
LAST FOR VERY LONG. IN ADDITION...THE 05.02Z RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT SATURATION WILL NOT OCCUR WHILE THE 05.00Z NAM STILL SHOWS
THAT IT WILL. PLAN TO STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECASTS AND SHOW
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KLSE IN SOME FOG BUT DELAYED
THE ONSET JUST A LITTLE BIT. WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT
OF WYOMING AND MONTANA...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
PRODUCING SOME RAIN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE TIMING
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SO PUSHED THE
VCSH BACK TO 06.00Z AT KRST AND ADDED A VCSH AT 06.03Z FOR KLSE.
THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO IF
THE SHOWERS DEVELOP WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TO OCCUR. SOME ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD BE IN PLACE SO A RUMBLE OR TWO
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
WABASHA REMAINS THE ONLY SPOT FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS
RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAST WEEKEND MAKES IT
DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THIS TIME...IT IS FORECAST TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE ON MONDAY JUNE 9TH AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
JUNE 11TH. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK
WHICH COULD HELP KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IS WITH VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL
IN WISCONSIN TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY
DRIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. CU FIELD WITH SOME VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH AS A SURFACE RIDGE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT SOME
VERY SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG COULD FORM IN LOW LYING/VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE 04.17Z RAP KEEPS DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S OVERNIGHT...SO DO NOT THINK THAT THERE IS MUCH CONCERN FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP LOW ENOUGH IN THE BOGS TO CREATE SOME FROST
OVERNIGHT. IF THE CORE OF THE RIDGE WAS GOING TO BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...THEN MAYBE...BUT IT STAYS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
AS THE RIDGE TRACKS TO THE EAST...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER TOMORROW BRINGING LOW
LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. A CORRIDOR OF
1000-2000J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
FORM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA WITH COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH WIND SHEAR/INSTABILITY STAYING ON THE
LOW SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
AFTER THIS SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL END AS A BROAD TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE MORE
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY FORMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. 04.12Z
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH LITTLE TO NO
WIND SHEAR IN THE EFFECTIVE LAYER. SO AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THIS CONVECTION. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST BETWEEN HOW FAST/WIDESPREAD THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF
SPINS UP A DEEP SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE MAIN CROSS OVER BETWEEN THE MODELS APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY
EVENING...SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR
THAT PERIOD.
RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FROM THE EAST FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVES IN ON MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE DRY
WITH A FEW SHOTS OF GETTING SOME RAIN...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY ON THE SEASONAL SIDE
THROUGHOUT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. 05.04Z
OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE A 7 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT
KLSE AND 9 DEGREES AT KRST. GIVEN THE SHORT NIGHTS...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE FOG WILL BE ABLE TO FORM...OR IF IT DOES...THAT IT WILL
LAST FOR VERY LONG. IN ADDITION...THE 05.02Z RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT SATURATION WILL NOT OCCUR WHILE THE 05.00Z NAM STILL SHOWS
THAT IT WILL. PLAN TO STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECASTS AND SHOW
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KLSE IN SOME FOG BUT DELAYED
THE ONSET JUST A LITTLE BIT. WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT
OF WYOMING AND MONTANA...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
PRODUCING SOME RAIN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE TIMING
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SO PUSHED THE
VCSH BACK TO 06.00Z AT KRST AND ADDED A VCSH AT 06.03Z FOR KLSE.
THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO IF
THE SHOWERS DEVELOP WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TO OCCUR. SOME ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD BE IN PLACE SO A RUMBLE OR TWO
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
WABASHA REMAINS THE ONLY SPOT FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS
RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLIER THIS WEEK MAKES IT
DOWN THE RIVER. A FEW SHOTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK WHICH COULD HELP KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
920 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS ON THE DOWNWARD TICK WITH ONLY ONE LONE
THUNDERSTORM REMAINING OVER SW NATRONA COUNTY. A SOUTHEASTWARD
DRIFT WOULD BRING IT INTO NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY IF IT CAN HOLD
TOGETHER. EVEN IF IT DOES...WOULDNT EXPECT INSTABILITY TO LAST
LONG ENOUGH TO BRING IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
SHIRLEY/SEMINOE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A COOL DAMP NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE REACHED THE SNOWY RANGE/RAWLINS AS
OF 03Z. COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE HAS COOLED
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S OVR THE ERN PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE.
MODELS PROG THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE TO BE MAINTAINED THRU THE NIGHT
AND THE HRRR IS ADVERTISING PERSISTENT FOG OVR THIS AREA THRU THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT PATTERN AND STRENGTH OF THE COLDER
AIR MASS OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND ERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT
THRU 15Z AT WHICH TIME FOG SHOULD LIFT TO A STRATUS DECK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS
TURNED OVER AN AIR MASS...COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STABILIZATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH OVR THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY WEAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE DOWNTREND...MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS OVER. MAIN PUSH OF COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. COULD EVEN SEE SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR SATURDAY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AND
COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND TO
THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND ANY STORMS THAT FORM WOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF AS THEY MOVE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
MORE LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT SHOWERS...AND FOG FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS COOL EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS
DIFFER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SOME KEEPING THE EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE WHILE OTHERS SHOWING A PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
LIKEWISE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA AS WELL. A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT AS WELL
WITH MINS MONDAY MORNING IN THE 30S IN SOME VALLEY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DRY AND MILD MONDAY THEN WARM FOR THE REST OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW THROUGH
WEDS...THEN BACKING TO SW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY)
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD WESTWARD TOWARDS THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT
KCDR AND KAIA...AND BY 03Z AT KCYS AND KSNY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT
THESE LOW CIGS WILL LIFT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...SO KEPT PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
FLOOD WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE WITH SARATOGA AND
SINCLAIR EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE LARAMIE RIVER SHOULD SEE THE FLOOD WATERS
GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED AND
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL RIVER RISES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1147 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN AS THE FRONT HAS SWEPT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. STILL COULD SEE SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THO. NO LONGER ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER...SO CANCELLED THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT FOR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DID HAVE SOME REPORTS OF
MINOR STREET FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF ALLIANCE WHERE
HEAVY RAIN COMBINED WITH HAIL CLOGGING THE STREET DRAINS. DID HAVE
TO ISSUE A URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN UNTIL 1 AM. OTHERWISE...DID OPT TO ADD IN
SOME PATCHY FOG TO AREAS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL...WHICH THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS.
CONVECTION LOOKS WEAKER FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED
TO LARAMIE AND MAYBE KIMBALL COUNTIES.
ISSUED AT 646 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
LATEST SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN WYOMING (JUST SOUTH OF BORDEAUX) AND THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (JUST NORTH OF SCOTTSBLUFF). COULD SEE SOME
HIGH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALSO TRIGGER SOME
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS FAIRLY LOW IN THE
LOWER 40S...AND SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WE MAY SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
LINING UP EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL ALSO MOST LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS
JUMP THIS EVENING AFTER THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH MINIMAL CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES.
INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD PUSH 40 TO
50 KTS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. 18Z LAPS DATA SHOWING UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE IN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS 1000-1500 K/KG HIGHER THAN THE
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. NOT SURE THE LAPS DATA IS 100 PERCENT
ACCURATE BUT GOING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MESO ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE WOULD MEAN VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 16Z HRRR RUN OF COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISCRETE
CONVECTION INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. AT ANY RATE...THERE IS AT LEAST A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE
CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO LATE
TONIGHT NEAR THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED BY
LATE THIS EVENING WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT...AND THAT BEING
MAINLY HAIL.
AIR MASS SHOULD BE STABLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW. CAP
SHOULD BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPPING. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW...BUT THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY BE TO REMOVE THE
CHANCES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACTUALLY THE
HIGHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TOMORROW EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. STRONG THETAE
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
NAM IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE STRONGEST POSITIVE THETAE THAN
THE GFS. NOT SURE WHICH TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING
OF THESE FEATURES. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS WOULD BE THE CASE...THEN WE MAY SEE
THE CONVECTION DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY. WE DID BUMP UP
POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. THIS MAY
ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON THIS DAY AS
WELL WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LIKE THE BULK OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. AFTER THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH...IT WILL TURN QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND 60S. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROF MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY HELP
STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STILL FAIRLY GOOD
SHEAR IN PLACE. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO YIELD TO LOWER
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
AFTER THE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RIDGING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW. AS A
RESULT...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON MONDAY...DUE TO
GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BANK UP
AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOME AID FROM THE LEE SURFACE TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY PUSHED EAST OF THE PANHANDLE. WILL KEEP
SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WITH RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PANHANDLE AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCLUDED TEMPO IFR VIS AROUND SUNRISE. BEST CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS ON THURS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MUCH GREATER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTER REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND
LARAMIE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER STAGES HAVE CRESTED
AND ARE FORECASTED TO RECEDE. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
SO NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOW MELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...REC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1040 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN AS THE FRONT HAS SWEPT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. STILL COULD SEE SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THO. NO LONGER ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER...SO CANCELLED THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT FOR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DID HAVE SOME REPORTS OF
MINOR STREET FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF ALLIANCE WHERE
HEAVY RAIN COMBINED WITH HAIL CLOGGING THE STREET DRAINS. DID HAVE
TO ISSUE A URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN UNTIL 1 AM. OTHERWISE...DID OPT TO ADD IN
SOME PATCHY FOG TO AREAS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL...WHICH THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS.
CONVECTION LOOKS WEAKER FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED
TO LARAMIE AND MAYBE KIMBALL COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
LATEST SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN WYOMING (JUST SOUTH OF BORDEAUX) AND THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (JUST NORTH OF SCOTTSBLUFF). COULD SEE SOME
HIGH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALSO TRIGGER SOME
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS FAIRLY LOW IN THE
LOWER 40S...AND SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WE MAY SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
LINING UP EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL ALSO MOST LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS
JUMP THIS EVENING AFTER THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH MINIMAL CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES.
INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD PUSH 40 TO
50 KTS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. 18Z LAPS DATA SHOWING UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE IN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS 1000-1500 K/KG HIGHER THAN THE
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. NOT SURE THE LAPS DATA IS 100 PERCENT
ACCURATE BUT GOING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MESO ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE WOULD MEAN VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 16Z HRRR RUN OF COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISCRETE
CONVECTION INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. AT ANY RATE...THERE IS AT LEAST A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE
CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO LATE
TONIGHT NEAR THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED BY
LATE THIS EVENING WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT...AND THAT BEING
MAINLY HAIL.
AIR MASS SHOULD BE STABLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW. CAP
SHOULD BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPPING. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW...BUT THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY BE TO REMOVE THE
CHANCES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACTUALLY THE
HIGHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TOMORROW EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. STRONG THETAE
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
NAM IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE STRONGEST POSITIVE THETAE THAN
THE GFS. NOT SURE WHICH TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING
OF THESE FEATURES. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS WOULD BE THE CASE...THEN WE MAY SEE
THE CONVECTION DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY. WE DID BUMP UP
POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. THIS MAY
ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON THIS DAY AS
WELL WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LIKE THE BULK OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. AFTER THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH...IT WILL TURN QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND 60S. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROF MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY HELP
STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STILL FAIRLY GOOD
SHEAR IN PLACE. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO YIELD TO LOWER
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
AFTER THE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RIDGING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW. AS A
RESULT...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON MONDAY...DUE TO
GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BANK UP
AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOME AID FROM THE LEE SURFACE TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MUCH GREATER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTER REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND
LARAMIE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER STAGES HAVE CRESTED
AND ARE FORECASTED TO RECEDE. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
SO NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOW MELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...REC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1137 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS MAINTAINED DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT
MOVES IN. AS THESE MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND
ENCOUNTER CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG...EXPECT RAPID THUNDERSTORM
INTENSIFICATION. DEEP LAYER SHEARS ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60
MPH. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITIES ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH WITH SFC
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY...STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS LCLS WILL BE LOWER AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF 0-3KM
CAPE...WHICH COULD LOCALLY INTENSIFY SPIN UPS ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS
TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT WALDO BURN SCAR (MOST
VULNERABLE BURN SCAR TO RUN-OFF PROBLEMS) WILL GET MISSED...WITH ALL
THE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AN UNLUCKY STRIKE COULD CERTAINLY
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. SAME WILL BE TRUE FOR THE OTHER BURN SCARS
IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. THOSE IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS SHOULD MAINTAIN A
HEIGHTENED AWARENESS OF THE WEATHER TODAY. ACTIVITY MARCHES
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING WITH MOST HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WAA OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH MAY KEEP GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VERY DRY SFC DEW POINTS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER TROF
APPROACHING OUT WEST...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND MOVE OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. APPEARS HIGHEST CAPE AND BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER TOMORROW...BUT 0-6KM
SHEARS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS...SO IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
CAN BE REALIZED IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THEN THERE
WILL BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. GREATEST CONCERN THOUGH WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE BURN SCARS. THIS RISK MAY
ACTUALLY INCREASE FOR SATURDAY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT
HIGH RES MODELS AND HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF NECESSARY.
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL MEAN A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER
INTO MID WEEK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COULD BE ANOTHER MCS ROLLING ACROSS THE
FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
BACK ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MTS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
LOOKS TO SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING UVV AHEAD
OF PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM. WITH AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...COULD POSSIBLY SEE TRAINING STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND ESPECIALLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
BURN SCARS. SHOULD SEE STORMS MOVING OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND PASSING TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN 4C AND 10C ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSING TROUGH...LEADING TO A COOL DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
SOME 5-15F BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN SETS UP WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE STATE MONDAY AND FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY BY MORE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...PASSING NORTHERN TIER SYSTEM SENDS A BACKDOOR
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
STILL SOME LEFTOVER CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS
VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING AS SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSH WEST
TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. WON`T MENTION ANY TSRA IN TAFS FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT...THOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENTS AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THROUGH 07Z-08Z. OUTSIDE OF
TSRA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR STRATUS (BKN030-040) AFTER 10Z OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS...INCLUDING KPUB AND KCOS. AFTER 18Z SAT...SCT
TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB AND KCOS 19Z-23Z. KALS
WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE FOR TSRA...THOUGH STORMS HERE WILL BE
HIGHER BASED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
330 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2014
...Isolated severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The forecast for the next 12-18 hours will be complicated by a messy
mesoscale weather pattern due to the effects of a large MCS that
traversed the forecast area overnight. Surface thetae in the wake of
the MCS has fallen about 10-15K, with a more substantial cold pool
than numerical models are indicating. This is likely to have some
effects on the forecast that the models are not grasping at this
time. One feature of interest will be an outflow boundary stretching
from AAF-CEW-MEI (roughly Apalachicola to Meridian MS) that is
reinforced by the warmer Gulf waters. The outflow boundary is likely
to be a focusing mechanism for convective development today.
Immediately in the wake of the MCS our forecast area should be in a
brief period of subsidence from 06-12Z. The HRRR was indicating
thunderstorm development along the outflow boundary prior to
sunrise, but this seems unlikely.
Therefore, convective re-development should occur after sunrise,
although it could be earlier than is typical for June in this area.
Models are in good agreement that a mid-upper level PV anomaly
should push into the area around 15-18Z, and this could contribute
to some earlier thunderstorm activity along and near the outflow
boundary. Overall, the primary convective focus today seems to be
the aforementioned outflow boundary - which should place the best
thunderstorm chances in our Florida zones. Northern parts of our
area, particularly southwest Georgia, should be more stable given
the convective overturning by the previous MCS. Some storms could be
severe once again, as models are in good agreement on moderate to
strong instability and about 35-40 knots of 0-6km wind shear. The
combination of instability and shear could lead to some organized
multicell structures with a threat for damaging winds and marginally
severe hail. As the PV anomaly pushes through, a corresponding
shortwave ridge should build in around 00-03Z, which should lead to
a decrease in the intensity and coverage of thunderstorms around the
end of the period.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
Scattered thunderstorms will gradually diminish during the evening,
though a few marginally severe storms will remain possible until
around 11 pm EDT. The GFS and ECMWF have some subtle differences in
their solutions in our region. The GFS maintains a weak short wave
trough (with enhanced deep layer moisture) at 500 mb across the FL
Peninsula through Monday, while the ECMWF develops a
500 mb high over Apalachee Bay by Monday afternoon. The GFS solution
would imply higher rain chances for our area, especially over our
eastern zones. The ECMWF would suggest a drying trend, especially by
Monday. Our solution is a blend of the two, with a southwest to
northeast PoP gradient ranging from 20% along the FL Panhandle Coast
to 40% north of Valdosta and Albany. This PoP distribution remains the
same for Monday, but is lower everywhere by 10%. A few pulse
severe storms are possible Sunday afternoon, but the synoptic
pattern does not appear quite as favorable for severe storms as
what we expect today. Our temperature forecast represents the
consensus of the guidance, with highs in the mid 90s and lows in
the lower 70s. If the ECMWF verifies better than the GFS, high
temperatures may be a little warmer than this.
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The synoptic pattern will shift to a more normal amplified
summertime scenario with ridging over west, positively tilted
trough over Cntrl and ridge over ern most states. Several H5
impulses will rotate around assocd closed low at base of trough.
This trough will pivot Ewd and amplify with axis over local region
by sunrise Thurs leading to increasing Gulf inflow of deep layer
moisture, an upward trend in precip and increased chances of
strong to severe storms. Axis will then slowly shift and lift ENE.
Expect possibly Wed and Thurs, afternoon diurnally driven
seabreezes will be the main generator of convection each day with
locally heavy rain wherever boundaries clash. Some model
difference in how much Gulf deep moisture inflow advects Newd
ahead of trough and, what impact, if any, weak low Gulf low will
have. Low across Yucatan to start the period which by mid week is
forecast to move into Ern gulf along a surface trough axis and all
this lessens confidence of forecast beyond day 4 until models come
into better agreement.
Daytime rain chances will vary from 30% Tues and 40-50% Wed thru
Fri. Highs will reach the lower to mid 90s on Mon, low 90s Tues
and around 90 Wed thru Fri.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday] VFR conditions may be interrupted by some MVFR
CIGS or VIS in the 10-15Z timeframe at some of the terminals. A
return to VFR conditions is expected after that, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms again - particularly in the afternoon. The
best chances of thunderstorms will be at ECP, TLH, and VLD. Some of
the strongest storms could produce gusty winds upwards of 30 knots
and briefly produce IFR VIS.
&&
.Marine...
The surface pressure pattern will remain essentially unchanged
through early next week, as our marine area remains situated between
a weak trough to the north and a ridge to our south, resulting in
mainly light west to southwest winds and relatively low seas. The
exception will be during the afternoon & evening hours, when strong
daytime heating will cause winds and chop to increase to moderate
levels near the coast.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity will remain well above critical thresholds, so red
flag conditions are not expected.
&&
.Hydrology...
Most of the significant rain on Friday occurred in Southeast AL and
South GA. Basin averages ranged from 0.50 to 2 inches- with a few
spot amounts of around 3 inches. This will of course cause some
sudden rises in river stages/flows this weekend in this region, but
at this time we don`t expect any river flooding. Just how much
increase occurs will become clearer later this morning, when the
river models first ingest the actual rainfall amounts. Otherwise,
nearly all of our local rivers were below action stage.
We expect rainfall totals from today through Monday to range from
0.30 to 0.75 inches, with the highest values from Tallahassee
eastward. Because this will occur in an area that didn`t get much
rain on Friday, river flooding is unlikely in these areas.
Otherwise, locally heavy rain will be possible this afternoon and
evening, but the probability of flash flooding is low.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 92 72 93 71 94 / 60 40 30 30 20
Panama City 85 75 87 74 87 / 50 20 20 20 10
Dothan 93 74 94 73 95 / 50 30 30 30 20
Albany 94 73 94 72 95 / 40 20 40 40 20
Valdosta 93 71 95 71 96 / 60 40 40 40 20
Cross City 89 71 92 69 92 / 50 30 30 30 20
Apalachicola 86 74 87 74 87 / 30 20 10 20 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
104 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY OVERNIGHT. A
WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
AND CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF
ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CWA. HRRR INDICATED THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND
SUNRISE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST
SINCE THINGS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
ORGNL DISC: RAIN AND SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THIS HOUR
WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY, WE EXPECT
THE RAIN TO WIND DOWN AS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING BY THE OVERNIGHT
OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP AND THIS COMBINED
WITH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
FOR SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD
THE REGION. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON UNDER VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER. BOTH CAPE AND MOISTURE LOOK TO BE LIMITED SO CAPPED POPS AT
20 PERCENT AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY ENHANCED WORDING. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
NORTHERN AREAS WITH VALUES REACHING NEAR 80 OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST
LOCALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY FORM NEAR THE COAST BY MORNING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE PEAKS
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY, THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
VERY WARM WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 IN MOST AREAS BUT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST. A VERY WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY
SPAWN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM
DAY. HOWEVER, A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN AREA WHERE
THE FRONT WILL BE BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN LATEST RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF...ALMOST
POLAR OPPOSITES. FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES RAN WITH SUPERBLEND THAT
CLOSELY MIRRORED GFS WITH STALLED FRONT ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES
EARLY TUESDAY BEING CLEARED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS BEFORE NEXT FRONT
MAKES APPEARANCE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO SHOWERS
AND OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING HOWEVER
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
VFR SATURDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS WILL INCLUDE ANY LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG, AND ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE COME UP DUE TO A GROUP SWELL AFFECTING THE
WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO THIS EVENING BUT BELOW
SCA LEVELS BEFORE COMING DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WARM AIR OVER THE COOLER WATERS MAY RESULT IN SOME
FOG ACROSS THE WATERS ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNINGS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
440 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE CLOUD TOPS OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS. A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED
ACROSS WESTERN MN...WITH CELLULAR CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
FURTHER INVESTIGATION VIA THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE REVEALED THAT
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL
FGEN AROUND 850MB. THE LINE WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD...WHILE
THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVED NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE H850-300 MEAN
WIND VECTORS. MEANWHILE THE CELLULAR CONVECTION MATCHED UP WELL
WITH THE H850 TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND THESE CELLS HAD A
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY WHICH MATCHED THE 850-700MB WINDS. AFTER
COMPARING THE APPLETON MN HOURLY RAINFALL OBSERVATION OF 0.49IN TO
THE RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIP...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
RAINFALL RATES WILL APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST
CELLS.
THE HIRES MODELS...NAMELY THE HOPWRF AND HRRR CONTINUE THE TREND
OF SCATTERED CELLULAR ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND
OF PRECIP. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE 8AM-12PM
TIMEFRAME...WITH REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAP13 HAS THE LOW LEVEL FGEN EAST OF THE MN/WI
BORDER BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SPED UP THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION IN THE HOURLY POP GRIDS AND WARMED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SINCE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
HIGH PRES WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LASTING THRU SUN
NIGHT WHILE A PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THIS PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW THE HIGH PRES CENTER TO SHIFT OFF TO THE E AS
A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROF DROPS IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERY LATE
SUN NIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON MON. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZATION SINCE ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH
VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
HIGH PRES THEN RETURNS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...AND THIS
HIGH PRES WILL HELP KEEP THE SRN JET AND NRN JET SEPARATED...AND
HENCE KEEP DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEMS FROM SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. STILL...THE NRN SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A CDFNT THRU THE REGION WED INTO THU...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS FOR THE AREA. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT THE
AREA THU NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM ON ITS
HEELS FOR FRI BUT CONFLICTING MODEL SOLUTIONS FORCE POPS NO HIGHER
THAN SLGT CHC ON FRI.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK BUT
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
A COLD FRONT MEANDERS FROM WESTERN WI THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN
LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHT BUT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REMAINS WITH A THREAT FOR THUNDER. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE
TWIN CITIES AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI IN THE 08Z-18Z. WITH THE
RANDOMNESS OF THE ACTIVITY PULLED BACK ON THE TEMPO THUNDER AND
INDICATED VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH ADJUSTED THE TIMING FOR THE MVFR WITH
THE ONSET A LITTLE BIT LATER NOW. THE ENDING TIME REMAINS ABOUT
THE SAME. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
DURING THE EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 6-12 KNOTS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE 00Z TAF WITH REGARDS
TO THE TEMPO THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND THE ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE THUNDER THREAT IS
SO USED VCTS INSTEAD OF A TEMPO GROUP. ALSO...THE ONSET OF MVFR
CEILINGS LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BIT LATER WITH THE START TIME PUSHED
UP SOME. DECREASING CLOUDINESS SATURDAY EVENING. NNE WIND 6 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5 KTS.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
356 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE MESOSCALE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAKING FOR A
DIFFICULT FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 20. DEWPOINTS TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE TO
THE SOUTH 70-75 WAS COMMON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ABOUT THIS BOUNDARY AROUND 16Z AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY
FLATTENING RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY ALONG THE QUASI-STALLED W-E
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM OK/N AR/TN. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE
CONVECTIVE BLOB ASSOCIATED WITH PRESENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE
KS/NE OK. WHILE THIS CONVECTIVE ENTITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...THE PASSING WAVE WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD
JOG INTO NORTH MS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS
IN THE CORRIDOR FOR NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT. SOME SEVERE RISK WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS CORRIDOR IN INCREASED 30-40 KNOT MID LEVEL FLOW AND
NEAR 40 KNOTS 0-6KM SHEAR.
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES LOOK TO DIG THEIR WAY EAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD AMPLIFY THE FLOW AND ALLOW
BOUNDARY TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH. BUT...SOME MCS POTENTIAL WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT SUNDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY CAN PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO
THE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING./26/
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BEST RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST AND THROUGH THE CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...LOOKS TO SLOWLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE SOME HEAD-WAY INTO THE
CWA...IT`LL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AGAIN
SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DESPITE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. I DID LOWER HIGHS
A BIT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. BUT BY WEEK`S
END...HIGHS SHOULD BE CLIMBING BACK UP TO NEAR 90. LOWS EACH NIGHT
WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS THEY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VICINITY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS TO MVFR./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 93 72 92 71 / 27 28 17 38
MERIDIAN 93 70 92 70 / 26 33 21 33
VICKSBURG 92 71 90 69 / 23 27 18 36
HATTIESBURG 94 72 93 71 / 33 33 16 16
NATCHEZ 91 71 90 72 / 17 19 16 16
GREENVILLE 92 72 88 72 / 26 47 39 58
GREENWOOD 91 71 90 71 / 26 46 37 63
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
453 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE THIS MORNING. ONE
NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA....AND ANOTHER NEAR THE ELEVATED FRONT FROM MITCHELL TO
BROOKINGS. DID HAVE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME OF
THIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES FELL WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DOES LOOK LIKE THE INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH...WHICH IS GOOD SINCE AMOUNTS ARE APPROACHING FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...BUT AT THIS POINT
THINK ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MINOR STREET FLOODING...AND
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THAT. OTHERWISE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. JUST
ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED.
THE THREAT WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY OUR FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS KEEPING A RAIN THREAT INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY...AND DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS
CLEAR. QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS OUT THERE THIS MORNING...SO WILL
LIKELY TAKE AWHILE FOR CLEARING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HALF BY LATER
IN THE DAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. ONLY LOOKING
AT HIGHS IN THE 60S. OF COURSE IF WE ARE ABLE TO BREAK OUT MORE THAN
EXPECTED WE WOULD GET A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT FOR NOW THINKING
THIS IS A LOWER PROBABILITY SOLUTION. SKIES DUE CLEAR FOR MOST OF US
TONIGHT. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS...WE
SHOULD EB ABEL TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD SUNDAY
MORNING WITH PRETTY STRONG FORCING WORKING INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE JAMES VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. INITIAL DRY LOW LEVELS WILL SLOW
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CENTRAL UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON BUT BY LATE EVENING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD IN OUR WESTERN HALF. THIS FEATURE SLIPS EAST SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE EXITS
THE AREA. A COOL AND RELATIVELY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO HAVE MENTIONED ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND A COOL AIRMASS WILL CAP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...COOLEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S. WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW RESUMES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MUCH OF TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMALS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
MOVING INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PATTERN GENERALLY REMAINS
ACTIVE WITH A PAIR OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS SHOWING SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES. FIRST WAVE HAS
BEEN SLOWED TO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY TIME FRAME...CLIPPING
MAINLY OUR NORTHERN HALF. SECOND WAVE FOLLOWS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH SYSTEMS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THINK THE HRRR IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
PLACEMENT...AND IN GENERAL WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH NEAR
HIGHWAY 60 ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE GREATEST SHOWER COVERAGE
AND REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY DOWN THERE. STRATUS MAY DEVELOP WITH
MIXING TOMORROW MORNING...AND IF IT DOES SO IT WILL BE STUBBORN TO
LEAVE. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
216 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE POPS AND
TEMPS. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ALSO WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN
MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. AN
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SHRA OVER NERN WY/FAR WRN
SD. THIS WAVE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA THIS MRNG...WITH SHRA
MOSTLY ENDED BY 18Z...ALTHOUGH SOME SHRA MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM SERN MT
TO THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE TODAY...THUS
AFTN TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOUTHEAST FLOW THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT THIS MRNG...AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT DRIZZLE TODAY
(AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY).
FOR TNGT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE QUICKLY CROSSES THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROGGED
BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. COMBINED
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWEST OVER SWRN SD WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT. MLCAPE AND MUCAPE WILL BE QUITE LOW...AND THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES...AND THEN EXITS...THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP SUNDAY EVNG/NGT...FOLLOWED BY A
RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT...WITH FROST IN THE BLKHLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPS. FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES ZONAL FOR MID WEEK...AND
TRANSITIONS TO SW FOR THE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROF MOVES
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS
BACK INTO THE REGION NEARLY EVERY DAY. TEMPS MID/LATE WEEK SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NEAR AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LCL LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOPING WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
JUST AHEAD OF A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS SHOWING UP AT
700 MBARS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
ALSO NOTED A WEAK COLD POCKET AROUND 700 MBARS ALONG TENNESSEE
RIVER INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THAT`S BEEN WORKING SLOWLY
EASTWARD WITH SHORT WAVE. IN ADDITION...WEAK SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM DOVER SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CHATTANOOGA. BASED ON
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EASTWARD WHILE THE OVERALL AREA WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NEXT 3-4 HOURS.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO BRING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNGHT
MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
306 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...RIDGING
OVER WI AND MI...AND A CONVECTIVE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS ENTERED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE DRY AT THE MOMENT. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN. THESE LIE IN
A LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE...ON THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WESTERN IOWA.
AIRMASS AROUND THE FRONT FAIRLY MOIST WITH GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWING VALUES OF 1.1-1.3 INCHES. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO
SEASONABLY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT REFLECTED BY 925MB TEMPS AT 00Z
AROUND 20C AT MPX...GRB AND DVN PER RAOBS. MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE
FRONT...READINGS WERE MUCH COOLER WITH 11C AT ABR AND 8C AT BIS.
THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR 500MB HEIGHTS TO FALL TODAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION. THE BIGGER MORE IMPORTANT QUESTION IS HOW MODELS HANDLE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS. THE 07.00Z GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN/ECMWF
TAKE IT EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY IT TO NEARLY A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...THE 07.00Z NAM SENDS IT TO THE EAST...
SPLITS IT INTO TWO AND WEAKENS THEM. LASTLY...THE 07.03Z-06Z RAP
MAINTAINS INTENSITY AND SENDS IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED
A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH WEIGHTS TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF.
THE GENERAL IDEA PRESENTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS. FIRST...THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND TO OUR WEST SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12-16Z. THIS BAND
MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PROGGED TO WANE
SOME. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO FIRE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS SUGGESTED BY MOST
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON THE TRACK OF THE KS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
FARTHER NORTH TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE RAP WOULD YIELD MORE
COVERAGE. CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN WISCONSIN PER NAM/ECMWF WHERE THEY MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS.
SEVERE CHANCES TODAY ARE LOW WITH 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR LESS THAN
20 KT. HOWEVER...AND THIS IS A BIG HOWEVER...SHOULD THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACH AS THE RAP SUGGESTS...THE 0-6KM SHEAR RAMPS UP TO
35-50KT ACROSS CLAYTON/GRANT COUNTIES BETWEEN 19-21Z. MUCH OF THIS
SHEAR IS ABOVE 4 KM BUT NONETHELESS COULD SUPPORT SOME ROTATING
STORMS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES WITH
CELLS RIDING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
CROSSING THE AREA. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THE POTENTIAL. HAVE
DECIDED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FUNNELS IN THE HWO...PER
COORDINATION WITH DMX AS WELL...ALONG WITH MAINTAINING HEAVY RAIN
CONCERN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.3 INCHES.
HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE COOLER OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
MORNING AND MORE CLOUDS. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
BE JUST A SMIDGE COOLER DUE TO 925MB TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO TOP OUT
AT 18C. COOLER NIGHT LIKELY TONIGHT AS 925MB PLUNGE TO 12C BY 12Z ON
A BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND...FOLLOWING A FULL PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN LONG TERM CONCERN IS MOSTLY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
MONDAY.
FLOW LOOKS TO TURN BRIEFLY ZONAL ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BEFORE MODELS SHOW 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING THROUGH
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ONE FOR OUR FOCUS COMES
DOWN OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS
TROUGH...WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN ITS WETTEST SOLUTION WHEN IT COMES
TO QPF. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN ARE THE 07.00Z GFS/CANADIAN
WHICH PRODUCE A DRY SOLUTION. THE DRY SCENARIO IS A RESULT OF THE
OTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH HEADS DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA BASICALLY
ROBBING MOISTURE. THE ECMWF LIES IN-BETWEEN THE TWO
SCENARIOS...THOUGH DOES SEEM TO BE TRENDING DRIER. GIVEN THE
SPREAD...HAVE CONTINUED 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES BUT GIVEN THE ECMWF
TREND THINK A DRIER SCENARIO IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
QUESTION MARK ON PRECIPITATION. HERE TOO FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP DRY...HIGHS MAY NEED A 5 DEGREE
BOOST UP.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS NEW TROUGHING TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S.. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW...THE REFLECTION OF THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY...IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING THROUGH MO AND IL. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD
SNEAK INTO VERY FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. HONORED THIS WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE. ALSO ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED A 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE AREA WITH A FASTER NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH SUGGESTED BY THE
06.12Z ECMWF.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES THAT NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH LIKELY TO
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RENEWED RIDGING OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AS A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY FOR
THE TROUGH THEN...HOWEVER...THE 07.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST THIS
TROUGH COULD BE MOISTURE STARVED. FOR THE MOST PART DRIER WEATHER
LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT KEPT SOME LOW 20
PERCENT CHANCES IN THE SOUTH SUGGESTED BY THE 07.00Z GFS. THAT
MODELS HAS THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THURSDAYS TROUGH STALLING IN OUR
SOUTH.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO BE
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND
SATURDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA...WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD HAVE SOME WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT. THE MAIN AREA OF PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER STAYS TO THE NORTH WITH JUST SOME SHORT PERIODS
OF WEAK ADVECTION COMING ACROSS. THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER IN THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND THEN WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES EAST. THE MAIN JET CORE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH JUST SOME WEAK LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE MAIN CONCERN IS JUST HOW
MUCH WILL OCCUR. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE
ON THE SCATTERED SIDE WHILE THE 07.00Z GFS AND 06.12Z ECMWF HAVE
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS. THE 06.12Z HI-RES ARW AND 07.02Z HRRR ARE
LENDING MORE SUPPORT TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION SHOWING MAINLY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE
CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE NAM...ARW AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AND SHOW SOME SHOWERS
MOVING IN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL NOT SHOW
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDER...BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT WHEN THIS MAY OCCUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY INCLUDE A
VCTS. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT AGAIN...TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST
TIME FRAME FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD COME
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1151 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT AND SAT NT
HOWEVER SCT TO NMRS TSTORMS WILL RESTRICT CIGS AND VSBYS TNT.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME
WEAKENING OF THE STORMS IS ANTICIPATED AS THEY MOVE TOWARD ERN
WI...THUS ONLY CHANCES OF TSTORMS ARE FORECAST THERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH VCNTY LOWER MI MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE INFLUENCE
ACRS MUCH OF SRN WI. MOIST AXIS RETURNING AROUND HIGH AND AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS FROM NW WI INTO NW IA. PLACEMENT OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD REFLECTS THIS HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AND HIGHER
MLCAPE ENVIRONMENT FROM IA INTO NRN WI. SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
SPOTTY CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE NW CWA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATING DIURNALLY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES. COOLEST WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING LINGERS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING. THIS GIVES WAY TO
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FORCING AS ISODROSOTHERM AXIS SHIFTS EAST
INTO SRN WI AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEANS IN. AXIS OF HIGHER CAPE
EXPECTED IN SC WI. WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST...PRETTY MUCH
IN LINE WITH GOING GRIDS. 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH A NEARLY DRY
SCENARIO FOR ALL OF SRN WI. REASON BEING IS THEIR SOLUTION HAS THE
SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH WITH 500 RIDGING LINGERING INTO SE WI. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON A DRY SCENARIO FOR THE FAR EAST FOR THE WHOLE
DAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO BLEND WITH
NEIGHBORS BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM THIS BACK SHOULD
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK. NAM/ECMWF KEEP 925 TEMPS 18-20C
CWA WIDE WITH THE GFS QUICKER ON 925 COOLING INTO NW CWA.
EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND 80 OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE COOLED OR RAIN
COOLED AREAS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE 850MB COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI SAT NIGHT AT
THE SAME TIME AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS IL. THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 850MB FRONT
PHASED IN ONE LINE AND DROPS THE 850MB FRONT ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO
NORTHERN IL BY NOON SUNDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF MOVE THE SHORTWAVE EAST
OF IL BY 7 AM SUNDAY BUT STALLS THE 850MB FRONT OVER CENTRAL WI
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
CHANCES TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
850MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE...NORTHWEST OF MADISON OR OVER
MADISON AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT.
NOTHING TOO NOTEWORTHY ABOUT THE CONVECTION...WITH ML CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF A LITTLE OVER AN INCH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS SOME FORCING
WITHIN LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HANGS ON. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
BE DRY BY AFTERNOON THOUGH...WITH HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A 500MB SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA.
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER...ALTHOUGH KEPT
LOW POPS IN SOUTHERN WI DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING THE NEXT FRONT
THROUGH WI ON THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WEATHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL...POSSIBLY
CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CU FIELD PLACED IN HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AWAY
FROM THE DRIER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT FORM WILL
BE CONCENTRATED IN THIS AREA...SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TAF
SITES INTO THE EVENING. KMSN WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS/FRONT LEANS
INTO SRN WI WITH MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG. FLOW ALOFT IS VERY
WEAK SO NO REAL SHEAR TO SPEAK. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL IN AREAS WITH HIGHER CAPE
VALUES. CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SPARK
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. A COLD FRONT FRONT...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE A TROUGH ILL EDGE EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL ORIENT ITSELF OVER NORTH SECTIONS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL ALL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
12Z FORECAST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE
FORECAST. THE NAM IS STILL SHOWING DECENT FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900
TO 700 MB LAYER TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING...SO PLENTY OF SUPPORT TO KEEP SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FAIRLY HEALTH
TOMORROW WITH VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.45 IN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND COULD
CREATE PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ALONG OR SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THE OVERALL THUNDER COVERAGE MAY NEED BE
LOWERED WITH MORE OF THE ACTIVITY BEING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. CONFIDENCE LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK SO CHOSE TO LEARN TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS
BLEND. PLAN ON NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND
SATURDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA...WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD HAVE SOME WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT. THE MAIN AREA OF PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER STAYS TO THE NORTH WITH JUST SOME SHORT PERIODS
OF WEAK ADVECTION COMING ACROSS. THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER IN THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND THEN WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES EAST. THE MAIN JET CORE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH JUST SOME WEAK LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE MAIN CONCERN IS JUST HOW
MUCH WILL OCCUR. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE
ON THE SCATTERED SIDE WHILE THE 07.00Z GFS AND 06.12Z ECMWF HAVE
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS. THE 06.12Z HI-RES ARW AND 07.02Z HRRR ARE
LENDING MORE SUPPORT TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION SHOWING MAINLY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE
CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE NAM...ARW AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AND SHOW SOME SHOWERS
MOVING IN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL NOT SHOW
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDER...BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT WHEN THIS MAY OCCUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY INCLUDE A
VCTS. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT AGAIN...TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHEN THE BEST
TIME FRAME FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD COME
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1220 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS ON THE DOWNWARD TICK WITH ONLY ONE LONE
THUNDERSTORM REMAINING OVER SW NATRONA COUNTY. A SOUTHEASTWARD
DRIFT WOULD BRING IT INTO NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY IF IT CAN HOLD
TOGETHER. EVEN IF IT DOES...WOULDNT EXPECT INSTABILITY TO LAST
LONG ENOUGH TO BRING IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
SHIRLEY/SEMINOE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A COOL DAMP NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE REACHED THE SNOWY RANGE/RAWLINS AS
OF 03Z. COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE HAS COOLED
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S OVR THE ERN PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE.
MODELS PROG THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE TO BE MAINTAINED THRU THE NIGHT
AND THE HRRR IS ADVERTISING PERSISTENT FOG OVR THIS AREA THRU THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT PATTERN AND STRENGTH OF THE COLDER
AIR MASS OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND ERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT
THRU 15Z AT WHICH TIME FOG SHOULD LIFT TO A STRATUS DECK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS
TURNED OVER AN AIR MASS...COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STABILIZATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH OVR THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY WEAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE DOWNTREND...MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS OVER. MAIN PUSH OF COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. COULD EVEN SEE SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR SATURDAY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AND
COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND TO
THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND ANY STORMS THAT FORM WOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF AS THEY MOVE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
MORE LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT SHOWERS...AND FOG FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS COOL EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS
DIFFER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SOME KEEPING THE EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE WHILE OTHERS SHOWING A PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
LIKEWISE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA AS WELL. A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT AS WELL
WITH MINS MONDAY MORNING IN THE 30S IN SOME VALLEY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DRY AND MILD MONDAY THEN WARM FOR THE REST OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW THROUGH
WEDS...THEN BACKING TO SW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THAT THESE CIGS WILL LIFT MUCH BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO KEPT PREVAILING MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
FLOOD WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE WITH SARATOGA AND
SINCLAIR EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE LARAMIE RIVER SHOULD SEE THE FLOOD WATERS
GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED AND
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL RIVER RISES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
807 AM PDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
AFTER TAKING A LOOK AT THE HRRR FORECAST AND LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ADD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE BRUSHING ALONG THE OREGON BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WEISHAHN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA AND FOR PORTIONS
OF FAR WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND
EXPAND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
MORE OF WESTERN NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA AND FOR PORTIONS
OF FAR WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND
EXPAND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND MORE OF WESTERN NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
TODAY, OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. VERY
WARM, WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DEFORMATION FROM A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CAUSING RESIDUAL HIGH
CLOUDS (FROM YESTERDAY`S CONVECTION) TO PERSIST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 THIS MORNING. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN/DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, BY MID-AFTERNOON CUMULUS SHOULD BUBBLE UP ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE SIERRA AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES (WITH WEAK
TROUGH OVERHEAD) COMBINE WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE GROWTH. AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS,
MODELS DEPICT THE BEST SHOT NEAR THE SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 SO
I HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THERE AND OUT INTO EXTREME
WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. NOTE THAT FURTHER NORTH I DO
NOT HAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS DO
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY REACHING ALL THE WAY UP INTO NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY SO AT LEAST A FEW BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WITH A FEW DEGREES OF SUBSIDENCE WARMING MOVING OVERHEAD.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY, A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT OVER SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY BY EVENING, AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WHERE
EXACTLY THEY FORM IS UNCERTAIN AND MAY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WEST WIND
DEVELOPS OFF THE SIERRA. THE NAM/GFS HINT AT THE BEST SHOT EAST OF
RENO (NEAR VIRGINIA/PINE NUT RANGES) AND OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES ALONG THE WEST WIND CONVERGENCE AND IN THE BEST UPPER
FORCING REGION OF THE LOW. UNFORTUNATELY, THE SREF AND ECMWF ARE
NOT SO ALIGNED AND CAST DOUBT ON THE BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY. THEREFORE, I LEFT THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE AREA MOSTLY
ALONE OUTSIDE OF TRIMMING POP OVER NORTHERN LASSEN, WASHOE AND
EASTERN MODOC COUNTIES AS THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION FOR CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE LASSEN PEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE (AREA OF CONVERGENT
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF LASSEN PEAK).
LATE MONDAY NIGHT, THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH KEEPING CONVECTION
GOING OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH UNSTABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL PROFILES TO EASE ASCENT.
HOWEVER, I HAVE JUST LEFT GHOST POP FOR NOW WITH LARGE UNCERTAINTY
AMONG MODELS. SNYDER
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS/ENSEMBLES AGREE ON GRADUALLY DEEPENING
THE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, EXPECT A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION, IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS SHORT WAVES MOVE BY TO THE NORTH.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TUESDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS A BIT WITH A SOLID
ZEPHYR AND THIS MAY BE A LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN FOR WINDS THOUGH WILL BE THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. BOTH THE GFS/EC AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HIT THIS PERIOD FAIRLY HARD WITH LOW HUMIDITY. PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATE ON PEAK GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
LIKELY TO BE 20-25 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR
ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE COMING DAYS. LIGHTER
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVES. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE SIERRA FROM LAKE
TAHOE SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH A SMALLER CHANCE INTO THE PINE NUTS EAST
OF KCXP. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING TERMINALS WILL BE
KMMH WITH A 15% CHC WHILE IT WILL BE 5% OR SO FOR KTVL/KTRK/KCXP AND
NEAR ZERO FOR KRNO AND OTHER TERMINALS. MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY TSTMS
WILL BE PEAK GUSTS TO 45 KTS FROM OUTFLOWS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. TSTM THREAT FOR SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS
THAN 10% FOR ALL TERMINALS. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WEAK CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA STREAMS TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS EVENING. THIN RIBBON OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR AXIS THAT CUTS ACROSS FROM
NEVADA THROUGH COLORADO. AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. DIFFICULT
TO INITIATE ANY DECENT CONVECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER
ALLOWS FOR SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUD. RAP MODEL SHOWS BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL POTENTIAL OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES REACHING 500 J/KG. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FORM
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THEY WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SHORT LIVED
PULSE STORMS. WEAK DISTURBANCE PROVIDES AN EXTRA BOOST...SO THINK
THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY. OUTSIDE CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) THAT A STORM MAY DRIFT
OVER THE VALLEYS...LIKE DURANGO...PAGOSA SPRINGS...GUNNISON...AND
EAST OF RIFLE (BETTER CHANCE THAT BRIEF OUTFLOW GUSTY WINDS HIT
THESE LOCATIONS LATE AFTERNOON).
AN OPEN WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH AN
80KT JET PUSHING INTO NW NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A SFC LOW OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT...MOISTURE FROM EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE
PULLED INTO SW CO. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS MOISTURE
TAP. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ANOTHER OPEN WAVE PASSES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION AND DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL BETWEEN 0.4 TO 0.5
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MTN SHOWERS WILL FORM FIRST
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO ADJOINING VALLEYS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE ALL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE GFS IS SLOWER TO KICK THE LOW EAST SO THIS MODEL KEEPS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY EVENING MAINLY OVER NW-FACING SLOPES.
EVENTUAL CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW NORMAL. IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY...THESE SUBTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
BE MARGINAL WITH A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY AND MILD.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SHALLOW COOL FRONT SLIDING INTO NW COLORADO. THIS FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY. BUT THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER BAJA...THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
LOCALIZED SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
HAZARD FROM 19Z-01Z...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COLORADO
HIGH COUNTRY. SOME OUTFLOW WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO 25-35 KTS. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
BENIGN CONDITIONS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
955 EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
...CONTINUED MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES...
.UPDATE...
THICKER CS DEBRIS LEFTOVER FROM THE DECAYING MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS
NORTH FL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS THINNING OVER LAND WHILE A FEW
REMNANT SHOWERS CONTINUE WELL OUT OVER THE ATLC. THE ASCD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT SAGGED ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CWA APPEARS TO BE
WASHING OUT WITH SLACKENING NW TO WNW WINDS IN PLACE JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE ATTM. WATERVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL H50 VORT RIPPLES
EMBEDDED IN THE W AND NW FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE PERSISTENT
HEAT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW AND TX ACROSS THE GOMEX AND
INTO THE FL PENINSULA. RUC ANLYS SHOWS ONE OF THESE IMPULSES
OFFSHORE NE/NORTH CTRL FL...ANOTHER OVER CTRL GA...AND STILL ANOTHER
APPROACHING THE MID TO LWR MS RIVER VALLEY.
MORNING RAOBS FROM TBW/XMR CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY/WARM LAYER BETWEEN
H80-H60 WITH MEAN PWATS ONLY 1.3" TO 1.5". GPS IPW INDICATES VALUES
A TENTH OR TWO HIGHER TO THE NORTH. THIS AIR MASS (AND IN PARTICULAR
THAT WARM/DRY LAYER) WILL NEED TO MODIFY BEFORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CU ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LCL SEA/LAKE BREEZE BDRYS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP TO PRODUCE PRECIP IN ABSENCE OF A BDRY COLLISION. FORTUNATELY
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE H50 IMPULSE CURRENTLY ACROSS GA DROPPING SE
ACROSS NORTH/CTRL FL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ACT
TO ERODE THE EASTERN END OF THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE THERMAL CAP
OVHD. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE ACROSS NORTH
FL WITH NW STEERING FLOW PUSHING SHRA/TS SE INTO THE CTRL PENINSULA.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NW-SE GRADIENT IN
POPS AS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNSET SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT HIGHER
TOWARD NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA...AS OPPOSED TO COASTAL ST LUCIE/MARTIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR NOW...VCTS FROM ABOUT 21Z TO 02Z OR 03Z IS STILL THE
BEST PLAY ACROSS THE NORTH/INTERIOR UNTIL WE SEE HOW ACTIVE THINGS
ACROSS AND UPSTREAM FROM THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL AMD WHEN/IF NEEDED
AFTER THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE GOES OUT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE ADJCT CTRL FL ATLC FAIRLY LIGHT/CHAOTIC DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SEAS ARE ONLY 2-3FT
ATTM. EXPECT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO BECOME DOMINANT WITH SEAS
REMAINING FAIRLY TRANQUIL OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS. MAIN CONCERN FOR
MARINE INTERESTS WILL BE STORMS MOVING BACK OFFSHORE FROM VERY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON (TOWARD SUNSET) INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DEPENDENT UPON STORM
COVERAGE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...MOSES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE CLOUD TOPS OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS. A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED
ACROSS WESTERN MN...WITH CELLULAR CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
FURTHER INVESTIGATION VIA THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE REVEALED THAT
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL
FGEN AROUND 850MB. THE LINE WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD...WHILE
THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVED NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE H850-300 MEAN
WIND VECTORS. MEANWHILE THE CELLULAR CONVECTION MATCHED UP WELL
WITH THE H850 TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND THESE CELLS HAD A
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY WHICH MATCHED THE 850-700MB WINDS. AFTER
COMPARING THE APPLETON MN HOURLY RAINFALL OBSERVATION OF 0.49IN TO
THE RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIP...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
RAINFALL RATES WILL APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST
CELLS.
THE HIRES MODELS...NAMELY THE HOPWRF AND HRRR CONTINUE THE TREND
OF SCATTERED CELLULAR ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND
OF PRECIP. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE 8AM-12PM
TIMEFRAME...WITH REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAP13 HAS THE LOW LEVEL FGEN EAST OF THE MN/WI
BORDER BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SPED UP THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION IN THE HOURLY POP GRIDS AND WARMED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SINCE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
HIGH PRES WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LASTING THRU SUN
NIGHT WHILE A PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THIS PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW THE HIGH PRES CENTER TO SHIFT OFF TO THE E AS
A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROF DROPS IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERY LATE
SUN NIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON MON. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZATION SINCE ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH
VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
HIGH PRES THEN RETURNS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...AND THIS
HIGH PRES WILL HELP KEEP THE SRN JET AND NRN JET SEPARATED...AND
HENCE KEEP DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEMS FROM SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. STILL...THE NRN SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A CDFNT THRU THE REGION WED INTO THU...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS FOR THE AREA. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT THE
AREA THU NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM ON ITS
HEELS FOR FRI BUT CONFLICTING MODEL SOLUTIONS FORCE POPS NO HIGHER
THAN SLGT CHC ON FRI.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK BUT
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF MORE CONTINUOUS LINE OF PRECIP EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST MN UP THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE STORMS BEHAVE
SPORADICALLY...SO HAVE CONTINUED VCTS WITH TEMPO THUNDER SINCE THE
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT. FORECAST
MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE MVFR CLOUDS...SO THINK VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MVFR. FOG IS POSSIBLE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
KMSP...
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID
MORNING. ONCE THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES THE INSTABILITY AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. AT THIS TIME THINK SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY VFR SINCE THE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING THAT WAY. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS WELL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WIND NE AT 5G10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE AT 10G15 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS E AT 10G15KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1058 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS UPDATED TO LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS AFTN`S
POPS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR N/NE AREAS.
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS DEPICT A PRONOUNCED S/WV AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS KS/MO WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATING
A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING BACK SW AND W INTO OK WITH WEAK
S/WV RIDGING OVER THE ARKLAMISS. THE S/WV TROUGH/OUTFLOW...ALONG
WITH DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN WITH CONTINUED PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT IN THE
NORTH AS A BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE REGION.
MODIFIED 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTN SUGGEST MICROBURST
POTENTIAL COULD BE ELEVATED CENTRAL AND NORTH WITH AMPLE SBCAPE
/3000-4000 J/KG/ VERTICAL TOTALS /28 C/ AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
/15-30 KT/. HOWEVER, WEAK S/WV RIDGING THROUGH EARLY AFTN SHOULD
SUPPRESS FAVORABLE BUOYANCY SOMEWHAT BUT INCREASED SFC CONVERGENCE
FROM RESIDUAL OUTFLOW IN NW/N AREAS AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FROM
TROUGH SKIRTING NORTH MS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEPER CONVECTION LATE
AFTN INTO EVENING. ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN NORTHERN AREAS IN VICINITY OF SINKING
BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. GRAPHICS/HWO ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
UPDATES AT THIS TIME. GOING FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS AFTN BASED ON SPC SSEO REFLECTIVITY
CONSENSUS IN N/E AREAS AND HOURLY ELEMENT UPDATES. /ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VIS AT AFFECTED TAF SITES. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING THOUGH MAY LINGER NORTH LATER TONIGHT. /28/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE MESOSCALE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAKING FOR A
DIFFICULT FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 20. DEWPOINTS TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WHILE TO
THE SOUTH 70-75 WAS COMMON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ABOUT THIS BOUNDARY AROUND 16Z AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY
FLATTENING RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY ALONG THE QUASI-STALLED W-E
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM OK/N AR/TN. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE
CONVECTIVE BLOB ASSOCIATED WITH PRESENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE
KS/NE OK. WHILE THIS CONVECTIVE ENTITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...THE PASSING WAVE WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD
JOG INTO NORTH MS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS
IN THE CORRIDOR FOR NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT. SOME SEVERE RISK WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS CORRIDOR IN INCREASED 30-40 KNOT MID LEVEL FLOW AND
NEAR 40 KNOTS 0-6KM SHEAR.
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES LOOK TO DIG THEIR WAY EAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD AMPLIFY THE FLOW AND ALLOW
BOUNDARY TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH. BUT...SOME MCS POTENTIAL WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT SUNDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY CAN PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO
THE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING./26/
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BEST RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST AND THROUGH THE CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...LOOKS TO SLOWLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL MAKE SOME HEAD-WAY INTO THE
CWA...IT`LL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AGAIN
SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DESPITE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. I DID LOWER HIGHS
A BIT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. BUT BY WEEK`S
END...HIGHS SHOULD BE CLIMBING BACK UP TO NEAR 90. LOWS EACH NIGHT
WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS THEY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 93 72 92 71 / 26 28 17 38
MERIDIAN 93 70 92 70 / 34 33 21 33
VICKSBURG 92 71 90 69 / 22 27 18 36
HATTIESBURG 94 72 93 71 / 22 33 16 16
NATCHEZ 91 71 90 72 / 17 19 16 16
GREENVILLE 92 72 88 72 / 34 47 39 58
GREENWOOD 91 71 90 71 / 34 46 37 63
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/28/26/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
930 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... BEFORE WASHING OUT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON... AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERTAKES THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...AND ALONG THAT FRONT A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE OCCURRING JUST SOUTHWEST OF STANLY AND ANSON COUNTIES.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS FORMING IN A NARROW RIDGE OF VERY MODEST
INSTABILITY ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...WHERE THE RAP SHOWED
850MB LIFT AND ALSO WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASE
IN MOISTURE PARTLY NOTED BY THE INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS...SPREADING EAST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAD SPREAD
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS
ALSO MOVE EAST AS FORECAST BY THE RAP THIS MORNING...LIFT SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL...LEAVING A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE RAP FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON NOTES NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THOUGH WHERE
THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LATER IN THE DAY...TOWARD THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...AS A SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS IT
COULD DRIFT FOLLOWING THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS AND THERMAL WIND AND
POSSIBLY REACH AREAS NEAR THE YADKIN RIVER. WITH THE BETTER MUCAPE
AND MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST KM WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY
THINK PRECIPITATION...IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED.
WITH A WARM MORNING STARTS AND AS CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FOR
THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SANDHILLS COULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WILL WATCH THIS TREND. WINDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 10MPH AS BOTH THE 925MB AND 850MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 10KT FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 SUNDAY...
THE MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS OK/KS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...RETURN
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NC...ENHANCED BY MASS FIELD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PASSING MCS...WILL ALLOW A THETA E RIDGE AND MODEST INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS PW
CLIMBS BACK ABOVE 1.5". THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR
EAST CONVECTION WILL EXTEND WITH CAPE FORECAST TO DROP OFF QUICKLY
NEAR THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR. IF A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS IS
PRESENT...WHICH SOME MODELS HINT AT...THEN CONVECTION MAY HAVE AN
EASIER TIME BEING MAINTAINED INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS RANGE
ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING..WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
SATURDAY IS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM CONVECTION...83-88 NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A TOUCH MILDER IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
FOR MON/MON NIGHT: WITH THE ORIGINAL FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SW HAVING
LONG SINCE DISSIPATED... THE NEW FRONT WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY E-W
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/PA/NJ MONDAY WITH NC FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING
AN MCS THAT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY BEFORE CROSSING PA
EARLY MON MORNING... A FEATURE NOT SHOWN ON THE NAM. THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SUCH AN MCS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE... SO
WILL BASE MONDAY`S FORECAST ON SUCH AN OCCURRENCE... BUT WITH LOWER
THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE. EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM TO BE
SWEEPING OVER CENTRAL NC MON MORNING... FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND EAST OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. WITH MODEL QPF FIELDS ALL OVER THE
PLACE... IT`S DIFFICULT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ABOUT CONVECTION
COVERAGE... SINCE WE COULD END UP IN A SCENARIO WHERE POST-MCS
SUBSIDENCE OVERWHELMS ANY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND RESULTS IN VERY
FEW STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE MORNING... WITH
30% WEST / 40% EAST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL... MID-UPPER
80S. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HEADS EASTWARD MON
BUT SHOULD STAY IN AN UNPHASED STATE WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION
CROSSING THE CANADIAN/US BORDER WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSES
OFF OVER ERN NE/OK MON NIGHT. CONTINUE TO PREFER THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION OVER THE NAM WHICH REMAINS MORE PHASED AND PROGRESSIVE. THE
GFS/ECMWF TAKE A WEAK WAVE ACROSS NC/VA MON NIGHT... WHICH SHOULDN`T
PROVIDE A LOT OF FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT MAY WORK WITH THE ABOVE-
NORMAL PRECIP WATER AND LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY (NOTED ON GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS) TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT... BUT A BIT HIGHER
IN THE EAST WHERE PW VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHEST (1.5-1.8 INCHES) AND
WHERE CAPE ALOFT WILL BE GREATEST. HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A TAD TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FOR TUE-FRI: CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS REMAINS LOW HEADING INTO
MID-LATE WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN PLAINS TUE WEAKENS AND OPENS
UP BEFORE HEADING ENE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH FRI... WITH A WEAK ELONGATED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
PUSHING SLOWLY TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THU/FRI. THIS
WILL KEEP NC IN A REGIME FEATURING VERY WEAK STEERING AND HIGH
HEIGHTS ALOFT... WITH A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...
TUE/WED. WILL KEEP ONGOING TREND OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY... MEANING SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT/
MORNING AND CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST EAST) AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL GO
WITH HIGHER CHANCES SHOWERS/STORMS THU/FRI AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY
INCREASES WITH PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE WARMEST TEMPS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE TIMING OF MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER NC... TUE THROUGH WED... AND EXPECT HIGHS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 90. THEN WE SHOULD SEE THICKNESSES SLIP BACK TOWARD
NORMAL WITH THE ENCROACHING WEAK TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD
COVER... AND TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT WITH A TREND BACK DOWN CLOSER
TO NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY IFR OR
MVFR CEILINGS THAT ARE IMPACTING TRIAD TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z AND THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS MAY DRIFT EAST TOWARD KGSO/KINT...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WEAK WINDS AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD CAUSE MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN BY AROUND 08Z. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS
POINT.
OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
INCREASE EACH DAY...STARTING ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF
STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...DJF/BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD ISOLD SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN FA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
WEAK WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH MLCAPE 50-200 J/KG
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS (LIKELY NO THUNDER GIVEN THE
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY). INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES 0.01 INCH
QPF...AND THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ALSO PRODUCE
THESE ISOLD INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GFS/NAM/ECMWF MASS/THERMAL FIELDS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT AND WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS EXTEND ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BEMIDJI TO DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 HPA JET
STREAK. MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH...THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA NO LATER THAN 15 UTC. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE REST OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL INITIALLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...DO EXPECT SCT-BKN AFTERNOON
THERMAL CU GIVEN FORECAST HIGHS FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
TONIGHT. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS MORNING/S RAINS
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
FOG. ADDED MENTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN
FROM 09 TO 12 UTC SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM A
HANDFUL OF DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO
NORTHWEST MN OUT AHEAD OF A CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE AND SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF UN-CAPPED CAPE AND
0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EAST...MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A QUICK MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTING THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY ZONAL WITH
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING OF COURSE
IS EVERYTHING IN REGARDS TO POPS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS MEAN MORE DAYS WITH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAN WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. CONTINUED TO USE MODEL BLEND THRU THE PD. BEST BET
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH SOME
CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00 UTC SUNDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
951 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOL AIRMASS
REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING.
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND THE NEWCASTLE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE POPS AND
TEMPS. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ALSO WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN
MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. AN
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SHRA OVER NERN WY/FAR WRN
SD. THIS WAVE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA THIS MRNG...WITH SHRA
MOSTLY ENDED BY 18Z...ALTHOUGH SOME SHRA MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM SERN MT
TO THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE TODAY...THUS
AFTN TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOUTHEAST FLOW THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT THIS MRNG...AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT DRIZZLE TODAY
(AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY).
FOR TNGT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE QUICKLY CROSSES THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROGGED
BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. COMBINED
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWEST OVER SWRN SD WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT. MLCAPE AND MUCAPE WILL BE QUITE LOW...AND THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES...AND THEN EXITS...THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP SUNDAY EVNG/NGT...FOLLOWED BY A
RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT...WITH FROST IN THE BLKHLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPS. FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES ZONAL FOR MID WEEK...AND
TRANSITIONS TO SW FOR THE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROF MOVES
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS
BACK INTO THE REGION NEARLY EVERY DAY. TEMPS MID/LATE WEEK SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NEAR AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WDSPRD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND THE BLKHLS
AREA...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MRNG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
515 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE POPS AND
TEMPS. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ALSO WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN
MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. AN
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SHRA OVER NERN WY/FAR WRN
SD. THIS WAVE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA THIS MRNG...WITH SHRA
MOSTLY ENDED BY 18Z...ALTHOUGH SOME SHRA MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM SERN MT
TO THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE TODAY...THUS
AFTN TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOUTHEAST FLOW THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT THIS MRNG...AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT DRIZZLE TODAY
(AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY).
FOR TNGT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE QUICKLY CROSSES THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROGGED
BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. COMBINED
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWEST OVER SWRN SD WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT. MLCAPE AND MUCAPE WILL BE QUITE LOW...AND THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES...AND THEN EXITS...THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP SUNDAY EVNG/NGT...FOLLOWED BY A
RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT...WITH FROST IN THE BLKHLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPS. FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES ZONAL FOR MID WEEK...AND
TRANSITIONS TO SW FOR THE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROF MOVES
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS
BACK INTO THE REGION NEARLY EVERY DAY. TEMPS MID/LATE WEEK SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NEAR AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WDSPRD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND THE BLKHLS
AREA...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MRNG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
605 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...RIDGING
OVER WI AND MI...AND A CONVECTIVE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS ENTERED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE DRY AT THE MOMENT. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN. THESE LIE IN
A LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE...ON THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WESTERN IOWA.
AIRMASS AROUND THE FRONT FAIRLY MOIST WITH GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWING VALUES OF 1.1-1.3 INCHES. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO
SEASONABLY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT REFLECTED BY 925MB TEMPS AT 00Z
AROUND 20C AT MPX...GRB AND DVN PER RAOBS. MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE
FRONT...READINGS WERE MUCH COOLER WITH 11C AT ABR AND 8C AT BIS.
THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR 500MB HEIGHTS TO FALL TODAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION. THE BIGGER MORE IMPORTANT QUESTION IS HOW MODELS HANDLE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS. THE 07.00Z GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN/ECMWF
TAKE IT EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY IT TO NEARLY A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...THE 07.00Z NAM SENDS IT TO THE EAST...
SPLITS IT INTO TWO AND WEAKENS THEM. LASTLY...THE 07.03Z-06Z RAP
MAINTAINS INTENSITY AND SENDS IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED
A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH WEIGHTS TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF.
THE GENERAL IDEA PRESENTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS. FIRST...THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND TO OUR WEST SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12-16Z. THIS BAND
MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PROGGED TO WANE
SOME. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO FIRE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS SUGGESTED BY MOST
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON THE TRACK OF THE KS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
FARTHER NORTH TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE RAP WOULD YIELD MORE
COVERAGE. CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN WISCONSIN PER NAM/ECMWF WHERE THEY MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS.
SEVERE CHANCES TODAY ARE LOW WITH 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR LESS THAN
20 KT. HOWEVER...AND THIS IS A BIG HOWEVER...SHOULD THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACH AS THE RAP SUGGESTS...THE 0-6KM SHEAR RAMPS UP TO
35-50KT ACROSS CLAYTON/GRANT COUNTIES BETWEEN 19-21Z. MUCH OF THIS
SHEAR IS ABOVE 4 KM BUT NONETHELESS COULD SUPPORT SOME ROTATING
STORMS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES WITH
CELLS RIDING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
CROSSING THE AREA. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THE POTENTIAL. HAVE
DECIDED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FUNNELS IN THE HWO...PER
COORDINATION WITH DMX AS WELL...ALONG WITH MAINTAINING HEAVY RAIN
CONCERN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.3 INCHES.
HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE COOLER OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
MORNING AND MORE CLOUDS. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
BE JUST A SMIDGE COOLER DUE TO 925MB TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO TOP OUT
AT 18C. COOLER NIGHT LIKELY TONIGHT AS 925MB PLUNGE TO 12C BY 12Z ON
A BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND...FOLLOWING A FULL PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN LONG TERM CONCERN IS MOSTLY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
MONDAY.
FLOW LOOKS TO TURN BRIEFLY ZONAL ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BEFORE MODELS SHOW 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING THROUGH
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ONE FOR OUR FOCUS COMES
DOWN OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS
TROUGH...WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN ITS WETTEST SOLUTION WHEN IT COMES
TO QPF. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN ARE THE 07.00Z GFS/CANADIAN
WHICH PRODUCE A DRY SOLUTION. THE DRY SCENARIO IS A RESULT OF THE
OTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH HEADS DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA BASICALLY
ROBBING MOISTURE. THE ECMWF LIES IN-BETWEEN THE TWO
SCENARIOS...THOUGH DOES SEEM TO BE TRENDING DRIER. GIVEN THE
SPREAD...HAVE CONTINUED 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES BUT GIVEN THE ECMWF
TREND THINK A DRIER SCENARIO IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
QUESTION MARK ON PRECIPITATION. HERE TOO FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP DRY...HIGHS MAY NEED A 5 DEGREE
BOOST UP.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS NEW TROUGHING TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S.. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW...THE REFLECTION OF THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY...IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING THROUGH MO AND IL. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD
SNEAK INTO VERY FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. HONORED THIS WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE. ALSO ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED A 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE AREA WITH A FASTER NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH SUGGESTED BY THE
06.12Z ECMWF.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES THAT NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH LIKELY TO
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RENEWED RIDGING OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AS A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY FOR
THE TROUGH THEN...HOWEVER...THE 07.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST THIS
TROUGH COULD BE MOISTURE STARVED. FOR THE MOST PART DRIER WEATHER
LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT KEPT SOME LOW 20
PERCENT CHANCES IN THE SOUTH SUGGESTED BY THE 07.00Z GFS. THAT
MODELS HAS THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THURSDAYS TROUGH STALLING IN OUR
SOUTH.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO BE
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE KRST AERODROME MAINLY IN THE 15-19Z TIME FRAME AND THE
KLSE AERODROME MAINLY IN THE 17-21Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE VFR IN TS ACTIVITY OR OTHERWISE. LOOK FOR THIS
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING BEHIND.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
559 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE BEHIND LAST EVENINGS COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
LATE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AFTN
WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. WEBCAMS
ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO THE SUMMIT SHOW FOG SO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE LOOKS GOOD. WE
HAD A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH CHEYENNE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 1AM THAT CAUSE VIS TO RISE. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THE FOG TO REDEVELOP NEAR CHEYENNE THROUGH SUNRISE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT
LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
COULD MAYBE GET AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE
AFTN...BUT NOT CONFIDENT SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE
PLAINS. SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM IDAHO
TONIGHT AND BE OVERHEAD BY SUN AFTN. LOOKING FOR BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ON SUN WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO BETTER INSTABILITY. STILL CONCERNED THAT PERSISTENT STRATUS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY MORE THAN THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUN AFTN AS THE GFS SHOWS INSTABILITY RISING
TO AROUND 1250 J/KG. COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON SUN
EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL ON SUN NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND 700MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND 2C. MANY LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS (PW VALUES BELOW 0.5
INCHES) COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE IF
ANY CONVECTION ON MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ALTHOUGH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH WEAK ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED AS THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM JET OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND AS A THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIDING THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD
SEE A FEW OVERNIGHT STORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AS A LLVL
JET DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA EARLY ON AND OVERRIDES THE SFC BOUNDARY. A
STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW WILL AMPLIFY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...SO CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
FLOW. LOOKING AT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THIS UPSLOPE PATTERN. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WITH A LEESIDE SFC LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONVERGE
WITHIN THE LEESIDE SFC TROUGH. SO LOOKING AT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITHIN THIS
AREA OF SFC FORCING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESSENED DUE TO
MID LEVEL DRYING. THE SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WAVE TREKS EASTWARD...WITH NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED IN ITS
WAKE...DRYING OUT THE LLVLS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDMORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WEST. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS WELL...WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY SO CEILINGS MAY NOT LIFT MUCH UNTIL EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH THE SREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS WITH MVFR OR BETTER EXPECTED IN AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 60 PERCENT TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND ABOVE 30 PERCENT TO THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH
PLATTE AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCATIONS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MINOR FLOODING WILL DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE BEHIND LAST EVENINGS COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
LATE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AFTN
WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. WEBCAMS
ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO THE SUMMIT SHOW FOG SO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE LOOKS GOOD. WE
HAD A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH CHEYENNE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 1AM THAT CAUSE VIS TO RISE. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THE FOG TO REDEVELOP NEAR CHEYENNE THROUGH SUNRISE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT
LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
COULD MAYBE GET AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE
AFTN...BUT NOT CONFIDENT SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE
PLAINS. SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM IDAHO
TONIGHT AND BE OVERHEAD BY SUN AFTN. LOOKING FOR BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ON SUN WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO BETTER INSTABILITY. STILL CONCERNED THAT PERSISTENT STRATUS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY MORE THAN THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUN AFTN AS THE GFS SHOWS INSTABILITY RISING
TO AROUND 1250 J/KG. COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON SUN
EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL ON SUN NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND 700MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND 2C. MANY LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS (PW VALUES BELOW 0.5
INCHES) COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE IF
ANY CONVECTION ON MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ALTHOUGH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH WEAK ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED AS THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM JET OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND AS A THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIDING THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD
SEE A FEW OVERNIGHT STORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AS A LLVL
JET DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA EARLY ON AND OVERRIDES THE SFC BOUNDARY. A
STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW WILL AMPLIFY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...SO CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
FLOW. LOOKING AT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THIS UPSLOPE PATTERN. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WITH A LEESIDE SFC LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONVERGE
WITHIN THE LEESIDE SFC TROUGH. SO LOOKING AT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITHIN THIS
AREA OF SFC FORCING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESSENED DUE TO
MID LEVEL DRYING. THE SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WAVE TREKS EASTWARD...WITH NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED IN ITS
WAKE...DRYING OUT THE LLVLS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THAT THESE CIGS WILL LIFT MUCH BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO KEPT PREVAILING MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 60 PERCENT TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND ABOVE 30 PERCENT TO THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH
PLATTE AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCATIONS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MINOR FLOODING WILL DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1119 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WEAK CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA STREAMS TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS EVENING. THIN RIBBON OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR AXIS THAT CUTS ACROSS FROM
NEVADA THROUGH COLORADO. AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. DIFFICULT
TO INITIATE ANY DECENT CONVECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER
ALLOWS FOR SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUD. RAP MODEL SHOWS BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL POTENTIAL OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES REACHING 500 J/KG. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FORM
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THEY WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SHORT LIVED
PULSE STORMS. WEAK DISTURBANCE PROVIDES AN EXTRA BOOST...SO THINK
THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY. OUTSIDE CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) THAT A STORM MAY DRIFT
OVER THE VALLEYS...LIKE DURANGO...PAGOSA SPRINGS...GUNNISON...AND
EAST OF RIFLE (BETTER CHANCE THAT BRIEF OUTFLOW GUSTY WINDS HIT
THESE LOCATIONS LATE AFTERNOON).
AN OPEN WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH AN
80KT JET PUSHING INTO NW NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A SFC LOW OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT...MOISTURE FROM EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE
PULLED INTO SW CO. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS MOISTURE
TAP. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ANOTHER OPEN WAVE PASSES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION AND DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL BETWEEN 0.4 TO 0.5
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MTN SHOWERS WILL FORM FIRST
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO ADJOINING VALLEYS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE ALL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE GFS IS SLOWER TO KICK THE LOW EAST SO THIS MODEL KEEPS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY EVENING MAINLY OVER NW-FACING SLOPES.
EVENTUAL CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW NORMAL. IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY...THESE SUBTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
BE MARGINAL WITH A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY AND MILD.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SHALLOW COOL FRONT SLIDING INTO NW COLORADO. THIS FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY. BUT THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER BAJA...THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH
01Z THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY. SOME OUTFLOW WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 KTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS THE MOUNTAIN
SNOWPACK MELTS UNDER PERSISTENT WARM TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST
FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON BASIN
IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. AS A RESULT...A NUMBER OF FLOOD ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO
...AND NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JDC
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1116 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WEAK CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA STREAMS TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS EVENING. THIN RIBBON OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR AXIS THAT CUTS ACROSS FROM
NEVADA THROUGH COLORADO. AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. DIFFICULT
TO INITIATE ANY DECENT CONVECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER
ALLOWS FOR SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUD. RAP MODEL SHOWS BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL POTENTIAL OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES REACHING 500 J/KG. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FORM
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THEY WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SHORT LIVED
PULSE STORMS. WEAK DISTURBANCE PROVIDES AN EXTRA BOOST...SO THINK
THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY. OUTSIDE CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) THAT A STORM MAY DRIFT
OVER THE VALLEYS...LIKE DURANGO...PAGOSA SPRINGS...GUNNISON...AND
EAST OF RIFLE (BETTER CHANCE THAT BRIEF OUTFLOW GUSTY WINDS HIT
THESE LOCATIONS LATE AFTERNOON).
AN OPEN WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH AN
80KT JET PUSHING INTO NW NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A SFC LOW OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT...MOISTURE FROM EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE
PULLED INTO SW CO. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS MOISTURE
TAP. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ANOTHER OPEN WAVE PASSES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION AND DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL BETWEEN 0.4 TO 0.5
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MTN SHOWERS WILL FORM FIRST
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO ADJOINING VALLEYS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE ALL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE GFS IS SLOWER TO KICK THE LOW EAST SO THIS MODEL KEEPS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY EVENING MAINLY OVER NW-FACING SLOPES.
EVENTUAL CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW NORMAL. IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY...THESE SUBTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
BE MARGINAL WITH A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY AND MILD.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SHALLOW COOL FRONT SLIDING INTO NW COLORADO. THIS FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY. BUT THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER BAJA...THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH
01Z THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY. SOME OUTFLOW WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 KTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1055 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
STRATUS MOSTLY CLEARED AWAY OVER ZONES 40 AND 41 THIS MORNING.
LATEST ACCARS SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE SOME CIN ON THEM. WILL NEED TO
UP TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
ARE SUPPOSED TO MAINTAIN AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM INTO THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY STILL KEEPS THE
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE PALMER RIDGE INTO THIS EVENING. THERE
IS LITTLE ELSE FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. WILL UP POPS A BIT IN THE
MORE SUNNY PLACES, BUT THAT`S IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF SWEEPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING ACROSS LOGAN AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
BEHIND THIS TROF OVER WESTERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH. STRONGER
NORTHEAST WINDS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS NOTED AT STERLING AND FORT MORGAN. STRATUS ALSO
SEEMS TO BE FINALLY MAKING SOME STRIDES SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD
ENVELOPE MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO BY SUNRISE. THERE IS SOME FOG
BUT ONLY A FEW SPOTS SHOWING DENSE FOG. IF FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD WILL LOOK AT A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG WITH STRATUS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF
THE PLAINS WILL BE TOO STABLE BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG INVERSION AROUND 750MB. LOOKS LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
FROM HRRR/RAP/NAM SHOWING STORM INITIATION OVER PARK...JEFFERSON
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM IN THOSE SECTIONS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES IN UPWARDS OF
1500J/KG AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF STATUS
AND FOG FOR LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
LOOKS LIKE THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL RESULT IN MORE LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO MORNING FORECAST. ALOFT THE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN DROPPING TOWARDS COLORADO...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL WIND UP
ALONG THE KANSAS/ CO BORDER. MODELS ARE SLOWER TONIGHT...AND
IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. COOL AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER THROUGH MID WEEK...THIS WILL USHER IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL
PASS ON WEDNESDAY...SO CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE TOWARDS THE 90S ON THE PLAINS
BY NEXT WEEKEND. DESPITE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WITH MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY LINGERING LATE ON THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE CEILING ISSUES ARE OVER WITH FOR THE TIME BEING AT DIA.
CURRENT TAF`S WIND DIRECTION SEEM ON TRACK. WILL LEAVE TEMPO GROUP
OUT FOR STORMS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE...IT STILL MAY BE TOO CAPPED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
TODAY WILL FURTHER MODERATE THE SNOWMELT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO HAVE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...KEEPING THE RUNOFF IN CHECK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK WHICH MAY INCREASE SNOWMELT.
CURRENT ADVISORIES AND THE FLOOD WARNING IN GREELEY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...SWE
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...RJK
HYDROLOGY...SWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...WEAK MCV OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AWAY
FROM FLORIDA...WITH ASCD WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SE TO THE
COAST NEAR KMLB-SIPF1. THE SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND RUC IMAGERY IS CROSSING THE
FL/GS BORDER AND DROPPING SEWD. STRONGER W-NW SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
ECFL HAS THUS FAR PINNED THE ECSB TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COASTS...
WITH A SLOW INLAND PUSH SOUTH OF MLB. HOWEVER...VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEHIND OUTFLOW BDRY IS ALLOWING FORMATION TO OCCUR FATHER
NORTH...AND WE SHOULD SEE AVERY SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN
INTERIOR COS TOWARD SUNSET.
LOCAL 88DS HAVE SHOWN 2 OR 3 CELLS THUS FAR...ALONG THE ECSB WHILE
THE WCSB HAS BEEN TOO DIFFUSE WITH THE AIR MASS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIP. THIS IS NOT AT ALL SURPRISING GIVEN WHAT THE MORNING RAOBS
LOOKED LIKE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE ACTIVE OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH OF FORT-MYERS-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-STUART.
TONIGHT...STILL HOLDING OUT FOR A MORE ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SE AND OVHD...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TS TO FORM ACROSS NORTH AND NE
FL. NWRLY STEERING FLOW OF AROUND 20KT WILL PUSH WHATEVER CAN
FORM SEWD THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THE
FARTHER NORTH ONE HEADS.WILL CONTINUE WET SEASON BEST PRACTICE OF
RUNNING WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO ADDRESS STORM CHANCES THROUGH
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH POPS/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE EQUALLY HIGH...IF
NOT A BIT HIGHER FOR A FEW HRS AFTER 8PM/SUNSET COMPARED TO 5-8PM.
SUN-TUE...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS INITIALLY EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE
ADJCT ATLC ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF FL...BUT WILL MOVE EWD AWAY
FROM THE STATE...WITH THE GOMEX RIDGE REBUILDING/EXPANDING EWD
LATE SUNDAY. THE ECM AND GFS SHOW A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT
OF DISPARITY FOR MONDAY WITH THE GFS HOLDING ONTO MORE OF A
WEAKNESS AT H50...WITH MORE RIDGING SHOWN BY THE PREFERRED ECM.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN BY TUE. OVERALL THE GFS IS
ABOUT 20M LOWER WITH HGTS BOTH DAYS. A SLOW MOISTENING TREND IS
STILL PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TOWARD
1.75-2.0. FORECAST SHOWS 40-50 POPS (N-S) FOR SUNDAY...30 COAST/
40 INLAND FOR MON...AND 50 AREAWIDE ON TUE WITH SLGT CHC/ISOLATED
(20) EACH EVENING. TEMPS IN THE U80S ALONG THE COAST AND L90S
INLAND...CLOSE TO CLIMO.
WED-FRI (PREV)...S/SW LOW LVL FLOW AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE AND MID
LAYER SW STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE LWR MS
VALLEY INTO SE STATES WILL FOCUS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 PCT RAIN CHANCES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN GFS MOS WITH PWATS UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S COAST TO AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...WENT WITH VCTS/VCSH IN THE 21-03Z...AND ITS LIKELY THAT
WE`LL BE LOOKING MORE MORE AT THE LAST FEW HRS OF THAT WINDOW FOR
POTENTIAL TEMPO TS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER.
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS WITH WINDS MAINLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF SIPF1. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3 FT OFFSHORE.
MON-THU...S-SW FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE WITH WINDS
BECOMING SE NEAR THE COAST MOST AFTERNOONS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE UP TO 3 FT OFFSHORE INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 89 71 90 / 50 40 20 30
MCO 73 92 74 94 / 40 40 20 40
MLB 72 89 73 89 / 40 40 20 30
VRB 72 91 72 89 / 30 40 20 30
LEE 74 93 75 93 / 40 40 20 40
SFB 75 93 75 94 / 50 40 20 40
ORL 76 92 76 94 / 40 40 20 40
FPR 71 90 72 90 / 20 50 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...MOSES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
206 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ONGOING RADAR TRENDS NECESSITATED A
COMPLETE REWORK OF THE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING QUICKLY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DIFFUSE FRONT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BISECT THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL
THE RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION AND HOPEFULLY ITS FUTURE EVOLUTION. I HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY
AND COLLETON COUNTY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE THINKING
FROM HERE FORWARD IS THAT THE AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
CLOUD COVER SEEMS TO HAVE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH SKIES CLEARING THERE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT STILL REMAINS LOW THANKS TO LESSER INSTABILITY THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS AND RATHER PEDESTRIAN LOOKING MID LEVELS. CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD.
TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER MID LEVELS COME IN AND WE
TRIMMED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MID EVENING FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
STALLED BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES AT THE SFC WHILE A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WEAK MID LVL RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORCING FROM THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS SFC TEMPS PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
WEAK WIND SHEAR...MARGINAL MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND PWATS BETWEEN
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGEST PULSE TYPE CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD...NEAR 70 DEGREES.
MONDAY...PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEAR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY AS THE BULK OF H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH AND
OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO MID LVL RIDGING EXTENDING SLIGHTLY MORE OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY ADVANCING EAST OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SUPPORT SBCAPES
NEAR 2000 J/KG OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.75 INCHES
DURING PEAK HEATING. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THUS REMAIN THE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY FOCUSED ALONG AN INLAND MOVING
SEABREEZE. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN PULSE TYPE IN NATURE GIVEN WEAK
SHEAR. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR 70
DEGREES.
TUESDAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO
MIDWEEK. MID LVL RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. A FEW MODELS INSIST THAT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA WHILE A SFC LOW SHIFTS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES NEAR 3000
J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES BETWEEN -10C TO -13C...MID LVL LAPSE
RATES NEAR -7C/KM AND PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INLAND MOVING
SEABREEZE. WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF ACTIVITY TO A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET. IF TRENDS PERSIST...CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL INCREASE AS WE APPROACH TUESDAY EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A GENERAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. SUFFICIENT LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE TEMPS PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE
WEEKEND...THUS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM CONCERN FOR THE TERMINALS IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. KCHS ALREADY HAS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AND THE TAF HAS BEEN INITIALIZED
WITH VCTS. I HAVE ALSO ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR TS CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. THEREAFTER...THE THINKING IS THAT THE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS KSAV. AS SUCH...I HAVE A SIMILAR
TEMPO AT KSAV BETWEEN 20Z-23Z. OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AND BOTH SITES ARE VFR THROUGH INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY DESCEND INTO WATERS.
THE CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT ALTHOUGH DIRECTIONS WILL BE SHIFTING ONSHORE
AS THE FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE WATERS. THE MOST NOTABLE ONSHORE
SURGE COULD COME LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND OFF OF CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND WE ARE ONLY TALKING 10-15 KT...PERHAPS 15 KT TOPS BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SEAS 1-3 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS A STALLED BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN
APPROACH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED INTO
MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KT WHILE
SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
Tornadic supercell moving into extreme northwest Tennessee appears
to be on the leading edge of a persistent theta-e gradient per 20z
LAPS Surface fields. The long axis of this theta-e gradient
stretches west northwest into central Carter County. Anticipate
that any cells/supercells will likely continue along this axis
through the next couple of hours. The 13km RUC shows favorable
1000-500 mb lapse rates for wind damage potential and limited hail
potential through at least 23z.
A secondary zone of theta-e convergence in the Purchase area of
West Kentucky is coincident with the second circulation, so
bouyancy is not a problem. The RUC suggests that some more stable
850-500 lapse rates may become more stable with time. This may
limit upscale growth of organized updrafts further north the
current severe thunderstorm watch #252. The RUC suggests some
slightly sharper lapse rates for isolated wind potential from
21z- 00z along and east of the Ohio and Wabash Rivers into
Southwest Indiana and West Kentucky. However, this area should
diminish quickly with sunset, but the aforementioned area along
the Southeast Missouri/Northeast Arkansas area will remain under
the gun for a few hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 139 CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
We have been monitoring the evolution of a squall line that
originated in south central MO early this morning in association
with an MCV/sfc low. It is currently impacting parts of southeast MO
this afternoon and will be moving into the southern IL and western
KY soon and eventually into SWIN. We had a report of an inch of rain
in 15 minutes and winds gusting to 30 mph from a spotter near
POF...otherwise the convection has remained sub severe.
Latest LAPS data indicates a weak warm frontal boundary from near
St. Louis to middle TN. Instability has been increasing throughout
the day and has allowed convection to sustain itself. In fact, new
convection appears to be forming ahead of the line in parts of
southern IL. SPC has issued an MCD for our area for a potential
watch this afternoon, giving special attention to the convection
from West Plains MO to Ft. Smith AR. Damaging winds and hail,
along with very high rainfall rates will be the main threats. An
isolated short lived tornado is also possible.
We will continue with likely PoPs this evening, but then diminish
from west to east overnight as this system pulls out of the area.
We should see much lower chances of convection on Sunday in the
wake of the aforementioned system. Much of the area may be
convection free. Whatever lull Sunday, will be short lived, as the
GFS/ECMWF bring another mid level disturbance across the area
Sunday night. Best chances will be in the southern half of the area.
Then a more significant upper level low will dig into the plains
Monday and head toward the area late Monday into Monday night.
Therefore, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good bet
starting on Monday and lasting through Tuesday...as the system
approaches and then moves across our region. Heavy rainfall looks
to be a good possibility as precipitable waters are running
1.80-1.90 inches. Severe weather is possible, especially on
Tuesday when wind fields are expected to strengthen somewhat.
No real changes in temperatures expected over the next few days.
Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 139 CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
By 00Z Wednesday, the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are in good agreement that
a cut-off low will be centered over southern Missouri. The slow
progression of this low across the Mid Mississippi River Valley will
keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
Tuesday night into Wednesday. While an isolated strong storm cannot
be ruled out, the main impact during this time should be locally
heavy rain, with precipitable water values 1.50 to 1.75 inches.
As the low weakens and shifts northeast into the Great Lakes
Wednesday night, expect a temporary lull in the chance for showers
and thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday. However,
another ripple of energy in the weak zonal flow pattern is forecast
to move slowly across the region Thursday night into Friday night.
As a result, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
somewhat elevated during this time. A transition to mainly dry
weather should occur next weekend, though an isolated mainly
afternoon/evening thunderstorm certainly cannot be ruled out given
the warm and humid air mass in place across the forecast area.
Temperatures through the period will be seasonably warm. Expect lows
each morning in the mid to upper 60s. Afternoon highs will warm from
the lower 80s on Wednesday into the upper 80s by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1232 CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
Low pressure over Missouri will track north of the region through
tonight. The approach of this low and a weak attendant frontal
boundary will result in scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. A few severe storms are possible later this afternoon and
early this evening. Scattered to broken cumulus will occasionally
restrict ceilings to MVFR, particularly in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Winds will swing around to the west/southwest tonight
and then north/northwest Sunday morning as dry conditions return.
Will need to monitor the potential development of low clouds and
perhaps some fog late tonight and early Sunday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
417 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CLOSED LO
OVER CENTRAL CANADA JUST W OF HUDSON BAY. UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT
H3 JET MAX OVER NW ONTARIO RIDING TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LO
IN CONCERT WITH BAND OF DEEP MSTR/H85-7 FGEN TO THE W OF SFC COLD
FNT STRETCHING ACRS THE WCENTRAL CWA IS CAUSING NMRS SHOWERS OVER
THE WRN CWA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC FNT. DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON
THE 12Z GRB RAOB LIMITED THE SHRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT
THRU THE MRNG AND HAS CONTINUED TO DO SO OVER THE ERN CWA...BUT
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING THAT LIFTED TEMPS TOWARD 80 OVER THE
SCENTRAL AND ARRIVAL OF MOISTER AIR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB IN
THE SW LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT THAT LIFTED MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG
CAUSED CONVECTION TO INCRS EARLIER IN THE AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL ZNS
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FNT. MODEST DEEP LYR SHEAR/MID LVL LAPSE RATES
LIMITED THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
DROPPED SOME HVY RA. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS HAS
DIMINISHED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS...ANOTHER LARGER BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND SOME TS ARE LIFTING NEWD THRU NE WI TOWARD HIER
LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE SCENTRAL. THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FNT...THE NNW WIND OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS...AND THE
PCPN HAS DROPPED TEMPS AS LO AS ARND 50 OVER THE WRN CWA. FARTHER TO
THE W...DRIER AIR WITH PWAT UNDER 0.50 INCH IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS/NW MN. SKIES ARE CLR-PCLDY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU UNDER LLVL
THERMAL TROF IN THESE AREAS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TREND OF POPS TNGT AND THEN
FCST TEMPS/MIN RH ON SUN AS DRY HI PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
TNGT...AS THE UPR FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE W ON THE SRN FLANK OF
CLOSED LO TRACKING E INTO HUDSON BAY...DRIER AIR WL OVERSPREAD UPR
MI FM THE W. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET
ROTATING NEWD IN ONTARIO ARND THE CLOSED LO WL LIFT TO THE NE WITH
THE UPR JET CORE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD
CAUSE THE BANDS OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH/LINGERING TS TO END THRU THE
NGT AS THEY SPREAD TO THE E. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE W
CLOSER TO CORE OF INCOMING DRY AIRMASS/ PWAT CLOSE TO 0.33 INCH AND
TRAILING SFC HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/ LIGHTER WINDS. CONSIDERED
ADDING SOME FOG INTO THE FCST FOR THIS AREA WHERE SOME MDT RAIN FELL
TODAY AND IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING UNDER THE MID LVL
DRYING...BUT OPTED NOT TO CONSIDERING SOME FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DRYING
FCST IN THE H95-9 LYR UNDER STEADY H95-9 WIND TO THE E OF APRCHG HI
PRES CENTER THAT IS FCST TO REACH NEAR DULUTH BY 12Z SUN.
SUN...ANY LINGERING CLDS OVER THE SE CWA EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME DIURNAL CU AS HI PRES/
CORE OF DRIER AIR SHIFT OVHD. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO PEAK BTWN 8C
AND 9C...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RISE UP TO 75 OVER THE INTERIOR. LK
BREEZES WL PUSH INLAND OFF MAINLY LK SUP WITH NNW H925 FLOW TO THE S
OF SFC HI PRES BLDG OVER LK SUP IN THE AFTN...RESULTING IN COOLER WX
THERE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FCST N WIND APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG TO
ALLOW MUCH LK MI MODERATION. DEEP MIXING TO H75-8 WL RESULT IN SFC
DEWPTS FALLING INTO THE UPR 20S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTN...WITH
MIN RH BOTTOMING OUT TOWARD 20 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT IN THE AFTN WHERE THE RH WL BE LOWEST AWAY FM LK SUP
MODERATION OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...MITIGATING FIRE WX CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A 1020MB SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS W TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE DAY MON. MODELS SHOW DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE 550-450MB
LAYER...WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLY RESULTING FROM THIS
LAYER AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. HOWEVER...THE SFC HIGH WILL KEEP VERY
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE FROM MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THE ONE EXCEPTION
POINTED TO BY MODELS IS OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI (WHICH WILL BE ON THE
WRN SIDE THE SFC LOW BY MON MORNING) WHERE A THINK RIBBON OF HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN (1000-700MB RH AROUND 70 PERCENT)...THIS
AREA COULD SEE A GREATER AMOUNT OF PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD POPS AS HIGH AS 40 PERCENT CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. LOWERED THE POPS OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN UPPER MI DUE TO
THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND E.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUE...WITH A SFC RIDGE STAYING OVER THE CWA INTO WED.
THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUE.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WED THROUGH SAT...BUT MAINLY WED INTO FRI AS
MODELS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGING WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF BOTH SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE THE DETAILS OF THE PHASING OF THESE
SYSTEM AS WELL. THE GFS IS ON THE WETTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THE GEM AND
ECMWF SHOW LESS PHASING OF THE SYSTEM AND KEEP THE CWA DRIER THROUGH
THE TIME PERIOD. USED A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH RESULTED
IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU. WHILE STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO LOW LEVEL PATTERN DIFFERENCES...FRI AND SAT HAVE
LOWER PRECIP CHANCE THANKS TO INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FNT WL IMPACT IWD/CMX THIS
AFTN AND SAW THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG. INCLUDED MENTION OF TS EARLY
IN THE SAW TAF GIVEN PROXIMITY OF LK BREEZE BNDRY AHEAD OF THE FNT
AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING RA AND AN
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF MOISTENED LK SUP...WHERE SOME FOG IS PRESENT...MAY
BRING IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO ALL THE SITES EVEN AFTER THE PCPN
ENDS LATER TDAY INTO THIS EVNG BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO AREA IN
ADVANCE OF HI PRES BLDG E FM THE PLAINS. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TNGT WITH DIURNAL COOLING
UNDER MID LVL DRYING...BUT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL DEFINITELY
BRING VFR WX BY MID MRNG SUN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SO
WINDS THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS. FOG WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT ONCE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVES IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1147 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE CLOUD TOPS OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS. A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED
ACROSS WESTERN MN...WITH CELLULAR CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
FURTHER INVESTIGATION VIA THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE REVEALED THAT
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL
FGEN AROUND 850MB. THE LINE WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD...WHILE
THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVED NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE H850-300 MEAN
WIND VECTORS. MEANWHILE THE CELLULAR CONVECTION MATCHED UP WELL
WITH THE H850 TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND THESE CELLS HAD A
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY WHICH MATCHED THE 850-700MB WINDS. AFTER
COMPARING THE APPLETON MN HOURLY RAINFALL OBSERVATION OF 0.49IN TO
THE RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIP...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
RAINFALL RATES WILL APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST
CELLS.
THE HIRES MODELS...NAMELY THE HOPWRF AND HRRR CONTINUE THE TREND
OF SCATTERED CELLULAR ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND
OF PRECIP. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE 8AM-12PM
TIMEFRAME...WITH REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAP13 HAS THE LOW LEVEL FGEN EAST OF THE MN/WI
BORDER BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SPED UP THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION IN THE HOURLY POP GRIDS AND WARMED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SINCE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
HIGH PRES WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LASTING THRU SUN
NIGHT WHILE A PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THIS PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW THE HIGH PRES CENTER TO SHIFT OFF TO THE E AS
A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROF DROPS IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR VERY LATE
SUN NIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON MON. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZATION SINCE ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH
VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
HIGH PRES THEN RETURNS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...AND THIS
HIGH PRES WILL HELP KEEP THE SRN JET AND NRN JET SEPARATED...AND
HENCE KEEP DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEMS FROM SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY. STILL...THE NRN SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A CDFNT THRU THE REGION WED INTO THU...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS FOR THE AREA. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT THE
AREA THU NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM ON ITS
HEELS FOR FRI BUT CONFLICTING MODEL SOLUTIONS FORCE POPS NO HIGHER
THAN SLGT CHC ON FRI.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK BUT
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
PERSISTENT SHRA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND END BY THE MID AFTN WITH
ONLY MVFR CIGS REMAINING. KRNH/KEAU WILL HOLD ONTO THE MVFR CIGS
THRU THE NEXT 3-6 HRS...WITH THE REST OF MPX CWA REMAINING VFR
WITH A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND ARND 10 KTS. SKIES SHOULD CLR THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS AFFECTING KRNH/KEAU. THIS MAY HELP
OUT WITH FOG FORMATION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLR. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG...WITH AREAS OF
DENSE FOG. HAVE INTRODUCE IFR VSBY AT BOTH KRNH/KEAU...BUT MAY
NEED TO ADJUST KRWF/KSTC. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE MVFR
CIGS CONTINUING EAST OF A KRNH/KMSP/KMKT LINE THRU 21Z. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS MODERATE FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE THIS SCENARIO.
KMSP...
MVFR CIGS AOB 1.5K WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY AFTN WITH
CIGS RISING ABV 1.7K TO 2.0K BY 19-20Z...WITH VFR CIGS AFT 21Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N-NNE ARND 8-12KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS.
SKIES SHOULD CLR THIS EVENING WHICH FOG/BR FORMATION ALMOST LIKELY
HAVE INTRODUCE 4-5SM BR AFT 9Z...BUT THIS MAY BE ADJUSTED BASED ON
CLEARING TREND...AND WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MORE E/ESE WIND AFT 18Z.
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SUNDAY AFTN...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR AFT THE TAF PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE AT 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS E AT 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
230 PM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
CU FIELD POPPED UP TODAY BUT THE ONLY RADAR RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE COMING IN OUR OF CANADA. NO REPORTS OF ACTUAL RAIN HITTING THE
GROUND THOUGH. NAM, GFS, HRRR AND SREF SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE AND MILD DAY WITH A WEAK LEE SIDE TROF
DEEPENING OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE ND BORDER BUT AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND THE BETTER ENERGY IS
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF US.
ON MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL ALBERTA WORKS ITS WAY EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WE GET THE LEE TROF PASSAGE THAT REALLY KICKS THE
WINDS UP. AT THIS POINT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET
ON MONDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE NAM
IS WANTING TO PUT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SHOULD BE PRETTY
WARM COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS ON MONDAY WITH 850 MPH TEMPS
RISING FROM 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE WARM FRONT.
FRANSEN
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME
IS VERY GOOD. FELT IT WAS WARRANTED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE
DETAIL IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW
DISTINCT DISTURBANCES ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE BETTER SHAPE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER OUR NE ZONES...BUT THAT
MIGHT BE EVEN TOO GENEROUS.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FLOW ACROSS MONTANA. MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING PRECIP
FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EJECT NE THROUGH OUR CWA...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND THE DETAILS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. SEEMS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN SEVERE COULD OCCUR AS AN
AXIS OF MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA PRE
THE GFS FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE THE COOL
PERIODS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT. A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE FEATURE
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL APPROACH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA PVA AS WELL AS
ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME IN THE
GRIDS. THAT SYSTEM WILL DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS AND SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS
MAY BE A DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS
DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A LONE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CAN PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED ASCENT.
IT MAY BE THAT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO HONE IN ON A DRY
PERIOD AND REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY FOR AT LEAST A SMALL PORTION OF
THE MIDWEEK.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ASHORE AND
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ESTABLISHED AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
TAKE AIM AT NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE 07/00Z ECMWF INTRODUCES A NICE
THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN PARTICULAR NEXT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THINGS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AROUND HERE AS SHORTWAVES
APPROACH THAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS DEPICTED BY PRESENT MODEL
GUIDANCE VERIFY. STAY TUNED. MALIAWCO
&&
.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO LOWER
PRESSURES AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...VFR.
IMPACTS...NONE. A FINE DAY FOR FLYING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY
TAF SITES. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS PIEDMONT
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT STILL JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT FRONT...NEAR WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWED BETTER 850MB CONVERGENCE AND CERTAINLY GREATER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. BASED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND CURRENTLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EVEN TOWARD
THE YADKIN RIVER MAY BE DIFFICULT. THE RAP IS BASICALLY DRY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LATE AT NIGHT TRYING TO
DEVELOP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. WHILE THIS
POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY NON-ZERO...IT SEEMS THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT JUST WEST OF THE YADKIN
RIVER WHERE THE GFS FORECASTS RIDGING OF 1.5 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING NORTH BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. HAVE
OPTED FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN SOME OF THE MORE TYPICAL COOLER AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DRIER AIR
AND FEWER CLOUDS RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD BE. IN TERMS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY TONIGHT...THEN AREAS OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE OF
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF
LOWER CLOUDS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST THE SOUTHERN END OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY. THE BEST JET
SUPPORT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD BE NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...
WITH AN INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING OVER 1.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...TO RESULT
IN SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ALSO SUGGEST THE LIFT AND
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TEND TO WEAKEN WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION...SUCH THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FROM U.S. 1 WEST. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS MOISTENING
THEN...BUT THOSE SAME SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDER. FARTHER WEST...LAPSE RATES ARE BETTER...BUT ONLY TO 6C/KM
OR SO...AND LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY A DEGREE OR THREE
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE AT OR BELOW 400J/KG OVERALL.
WITH THIS IN MIND...ALONG WITH ONLY MODEST 850MB WINDS...WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
HIGHS SATURDAY 80 TO 85 OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS IN GENERAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.
THE NAM AND THE GFS TEND TO DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AND WITH HPC SUGGESTING A BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS COMPARED
TO THE NAM FOR THE 12Z CYCLE HAVE LEANED MUCH MORE TOWARD THE GFS
FOR THE FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DRY THE MEAN AIR
MASS QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THIS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS ESSENTIALLY CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. EVEN THE NAM...WITH
ITS DIFFERENCES FROM THE GFS...SHOWS K INDICES FALLING GREATLY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AFTER
A LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE MID-LEVELS WARMING SUPPORTING A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR
IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
AND THEN...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALWAYS HESITATE TO REMOVE CHANCES SO MUCH...BUT THE
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM U.S. 1 ON WEST ARE SO DRY AND
CAPPED IT IS DIFFICULT NOT TO AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE POPS THERE ARE
VERY LOW AS WELL. AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S...
HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH A 90 POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SW-NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ALONG
WITH A MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
TRIGGER/SUSTAIN MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST-NE. EXPECT
BULK OF CONVECTION TO DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WITH A WARM MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MUGGY WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE 60S...AROUND 70 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A S/W RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MODEST INCREASE IN THE HEIGHTS ALOFT MAY
INITIALLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STRONG INSOLATION
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE AND SUSTAIN RANDOM CONVECTION
LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. WITH THE CORE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AVERAGE A SOLID 3-6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS NEAR 90-LOWER 90S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE INCREASING EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY THIS PERIOD. THE S/W RIDGE
MOVES EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP SLY FLOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS DEEP SLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT A MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS INTO CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITHIN
THIS FLOW WILL LIKELY BE A SERIES OF PERTURBATION LIFTING NWD. WHILE
TIMING OF THESE PERTURBATIONS THIS FAR OUT IS PURE FOLLY...IF A
PERTURBATION PASSAGE COINCIDES WITH MAX HEATING...THIS WOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT POP CHANCE TO NO HIGHER THAN
40 PERCENT. BUT AS TIMING ISSUES BECOME BETTER DEFINED...COULD SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AS SHEAR
APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUITE A BIT
OF LIGHTNING ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL START HOT WITH HIGHS PROJECTED NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S. INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT INSOLATION LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THOUGH IT WILL BE
COOLER...THE MUGGY AIR MASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MOST
INDIVIDUALS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN SOME
AREAS OF LOW MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IS LOW...WITH THE SREF KEEPING THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SUCH CONDITIONS WEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARD KRWI MAY RESULT IN LOCAL
REDUCED VISIBILITIES THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR THERE...BUT CURRENTLY WITHOUT A HIGH ENOUGH
CONDFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST AT THAT SITE. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SHOULD DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SUCH AT TAF SITES IS FROM THE TRIAD
EAST THROUGH KRDU. AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS SEEM MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...A SHOWER OR STORM COULD COME
CLOSE TO KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY...THEN CHANCES FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EXIST AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE RAIN OCCURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
202 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS PIEDMONT
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...AND ALONG THAT FRONT A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE OCCURRING JUST SOUTHWEST OF STANLY AND ANSON COUNTIES.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS FORMING IN A NARROW RIDGE OF VERY MODEST
INSTABILITY ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...WHERE THE RAP SHOWED
850MB LIFT AND ALSO WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASE
IN MOISTURE PARTLY NOTED BY THE INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS...SPREADING EAST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAD SPREAD
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS
ALSO MOVE EAST AS FORECAST BY THE RAP THIS MORNING...LIFT SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL...LEAVING A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE RAP FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON NOTES NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THOUGH WHERE
THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LATER IN THE DAY...TOWARD THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...AS A SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS IT
COULD DRIFT FOLLOWING THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS AND THERMAL WIND AND
POSSIBLY REACH AREAS NEAR THE YADKIN RIVER. WITH THE BETTER MUCAPE
AND MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST KM WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY
THINK PRECIPITATION...IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED.
WITH A WARM MORNING STARTS AND AS CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FOR
THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SANDHILLS COULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WILL WATCH THIS TREND. WINDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 10MPH AS BOTH THE 925MB AND 850MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 10KT FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 SUNDAY...
THE MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS OK/KS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...RETURN
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NC...ENHANCED BY MASS FIELD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PASSING MCS...WILL ALLOW A THETA E RIDGE AND MODEST INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS PW
CLIMBS BACK ABOVE 1.5". THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR
EAST CONVECTION WILL EXTEND WITH CAPE FORECAST TO DROP OFF QUICKLY
NEAR THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR. IF A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS IS
PRESENT...WHICH SOME MODELS HINT AT...THEN CONVECTION MAY HAVE AN
EASIER TIME BEING MAINTAINED INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS RANGE
ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING..WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
SATURDAY IS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM CONVECTION...83-88 NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A TOUCH MILDER IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
FOR MON/MON NIGHT: WITH THE ORIGINAL FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SW HAVING
LONG SINCE DISSIPATED... THE NEW FRONT WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY E-W
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/PA/NJ MONDAY WITH NC FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING
AN MCS THAT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY BEFORE CROSSING PA
EARLY MON MORNING... A FEATURE NOT SHOWN ON THE NAM. THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SUCH AN MCS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE... SO
WILL BASE MONDAY`S FORECAST ON SUCH AN OCCURRENCE... BUT WITH LOWER
THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE. EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM TO BE
SWEEPING OVER CENTRAL NC MON MORNING... FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND EAST OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. WITH MODEL QPF FIELDS ALL OVER THE
PLACE... IT`S DIFFICULT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ABOUT CONVECTION
COVERAGE... SINCE WE COULD END UP IN A SCENARIO WHERE POST-MCS
SUBSIDENCE OVERWHELMS ANY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND RESULTS IN VERY
FEW STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE MORNING... WITH
30% WEST / 40% EAST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL... MID-UPPER
80S. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HEADS EASTWARD MON
BUT SHOULD STAY IN AN UNPHASED STATE WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION
CROSSING THE CANADIAN/US BORDER WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSES
OFF OVER ERN NE/OK MON NIGHT. CONTINUE TO PREFER THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION OVER THE NAM WHICH REMAINS MORE PHASED AND PROGRESSIVE. THE
GFS/ECMWF TAKE A WEAK WAVE ACROSS NC/VA MON NIGHT... WHICH SHOULDN`T
PROVIDE A LOT OF FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT MAY WORK WITH THE ABOVE-
NORMAL PRECIP WATER AND LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY (NOTED ON GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS) TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT... BUT A BIT HIGHER
IN THE EAST WHERE PW VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHEST (1.5-1.8 INCHES) AND
WHERE CAPE ALOFT WILL BE GREATEST. HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A TAD TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FOR TUE-FRI: CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS REMAINS LOW HEADING INTO
MID-LATE WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN PLAINS TUE WEAKENS AND OPENS
UP BEFORE HEADING ENE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH FRI... WITH A WEAK ELONGATED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
PUSHING SLOWLY TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THU/FRI. THIS
WILL KEEP NC IN A REGIME FEATURING VERY WEAK STEERING AND HIGH
HEIGHTS ALOFT... WITH A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...
TUE/WED. WILL KEEP ONGOING TREND OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY... MEANING SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT/
MORNING AND CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST EAST) AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL GO
WITH HIGHER CHANCES SHOWERS/STORMS THU/FRI AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY
INCREASES WITH PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE WARMEST TEMPS
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE TIMING OF MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER NC... TUE THROUGH WED... AND EXPECT HIGHS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 90. THEN WE SHOULD SEE THICKNESSES SLIP BACK TOWARD
NORMAL WITH THE ENCROACHING WEAK TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD
COVER... AND TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT WITH A TREND BACK DOWN CLOSER
TO NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN SOME
AREAS OF LOW MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IS LOW...WITH THE SREF KEEPING THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SUCH CONDITIONS WEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARD KRWI MAY RESULT IN LOCAL
REDUCED VISIBILITIES THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR THERE...BUT CURRENTLY WITHOUT A HIGH ENOUGH
CONDFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST AT THAT SITE. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SHOULD DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SUCH AT TAF SITES IS FROM THE TRIAD
EAST THROUGH KRDU. AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS SEEM MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...A SHOWER OR STORM COULD COME
CLOSE TO KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY...THEN CHANCES FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EXIST AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE RAIN OCCURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1218 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD ISOLD SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN FA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
WEAK WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH MLCAPE 50-200 J/KG
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS (LIKELY NO THUNDER GIVEN THE
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY). INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES 0.01 INCH
QPF...AND THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ALSO PRODUCE
THESE ISOLD INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GFS/NAM/ECMWF MASS/THERMAL FIELDS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT AND WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS EXTEND ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BEMIDJI TO DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 HPA JET
STREAK. MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH...THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA NO LATER THAN 15 UTC. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE REST OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL INITIALLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...DO EXPECT SCT-BKN AFTERNOON
THERMAL CU GIVEN FORECAST HIGHS FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
TONIGHT. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS MORNING/S RAINS
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
FOG. ADDED MENTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN
FROM 09 TO 12 UTC SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM A
HANDFUL OF DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO
NORTHWEST MN OUT AHEAD OF A CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE AND SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF UN-CAPPED CAPE AND
0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EAST...MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A QUICK MOVING SFC HIGH IMPACTING THE
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY ZONAL WITH
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING OF COURSE
IS EVERYTHING IN REGARDS TO POPS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS MEAN MORE DAYS WITH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAN WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. CONTINUED TO USE MODEL BLEND THRU THE PD. BEST BET
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
SCT/BKN VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS MAY AT TIMES GUST
TO AROUND 15 KTS OR A BIT ABOVE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1124 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOL AIRMASS
REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING.
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND THE NEWCASTLE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE POPS AND
TEMPS. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ALSO WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN
MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. AN
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SHRA OVER NERN WY/FAR WRN
SD. THIS WAVE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA THIS MRNG...WITH SHRA
MOSTLY ENDED BY 18Z...ALTHOUGH SOME SHRA MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM SERN MT
TO THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...850-MB TEMPS WILL RISE TODAY...THUS
AFTN TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOUTHEAST FLOW THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT THIS MRNG...AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT DRIZZLE TODAY
(AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY).
FOR TNGT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE QUICKLY CROSSES THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROGGED
BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. COMBINED
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWEST OVER SWRN SD WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT. MLCAPE AND MUCAPE WILL BE QUITE LOW...AND THUS HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES...AND THEN EXITS...THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP SUNDAY EVNG/NGT...FOLLOWED BY A
RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT...WITH FROST IN THE BLKHLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPS. FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES ZONAL FOR MID WEEK...AND
TRANSITIONS TO SW FOR THE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROF MOVES
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS
BACK INTO THE REGION NEARLY EVERY DAY. TEMPS MID/LATE WEEK SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NEAR AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AREA SLOWEST TO IMPROVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE AJACENT AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. ISOLATED
-SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE BLACK HILLS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...THE
BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. IFR
CIGS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN...WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WEAK NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING
THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG A CROSSVILLE TO KNOXVILLE TO
ANDREWS NC LINE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP OVER THE OZARKS REGION AHEAD OF ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONGEAL INTO AN MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS MCS SHOULD
WEAKEN TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER
EAST TN. THUS...WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT... BUT WILL ONLY MENTION SCATTERED CONVECTION
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY STABILIZING THE LOCAL AIR MASS...WILL LOWER
POPS FOR SUNDAY INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MARGINALLY
TO POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST TN AND
SOUTHWEST NC WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP. ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AREA WIDE. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO WHERE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE
NOTED.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WILL STAY IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 88 67 88 / 60 50 30 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 86 66 86 / 50 50 30 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 86 66 86 / 60 50 30 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 83 61 83 / 50 50 40 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DMG/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...
.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAIN FOCUS IS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE IA INTO CNTRL WI WITH LITTLE
DESTABILIZATION FURTHER EAST DUE TO DENSE CIRRUS CANOPY. HRRR AND
4KM SPC WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS WITH SLOW
PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL INDUCED CONVECTION INTO SC WI THROUGH THE
EVENING. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN CONVECTION WITH LITTLE PUSH INTO THE
ERN CWA WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MORE STABLE AIRMASS. PLUS THE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION WITH MORE OF A NEWD CELLULAR
MOVEMENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MUCH OF THE ERN CWA ENDING UP WITH
A DRY LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE AND POSSIBLY LONGER. HOWEVER STRONG
SHORTWAVE ACRS NRN MO WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH 6Z WITH AN
EXTENSION OF THIS VORT TO THE NORTH POSSIBLY HELPING WITH ADDING
SOME LIFT IN ADDITION TO THE COLD FRONT MOVG SEWD. BOTH MODELS
HINT AT THIS WITH 4KM WRF SHOWING A CLOSE CALL THOUGH KEEPING IT
JUST EAST AND SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GENERAL SPIRIT OF GOING
FORECAST INTACT WITH HIGHER POPS IN WRN AND CNTRL CWA INTO THIS
EVENING WITH LOWER POPS TOWARDS THE LAKE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE DEF ZONE SHIELD OF PCPN WITH
STRONGER MO/WC IL VORT MAX.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WITH ANY VORT ACTION TO OUR NORTH.
MAIN STORY WILL BE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH MORNING
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
AND THE NAM MOS ALL SUGGEST SOME STRATUS FOR A TIME. 925 TEMPS
DROP OFF INTO THE 10-13C RANGE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
WITH SOME MODIFICATION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
MONDAY. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND MID LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES WESTERN MISSOURI MONDAY. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. AS A RESULT THE
250 MB DIVERGENCE INCREASES MONDAY AFTERNOON. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
IS WEAK...WITH THE STRONGER UPWARD MOTION JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD EVENING.
THE NAM SATURATES THE 700 MB LAYER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. 850
MB RH IS RATHER LOW BUT DOES INCREASE FAR WEST AND FAR SOUTH
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO 0 TO 1 KM CAPE. THE NAM
DOES BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SOUTHWEST OF MADISON DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE DRY AND IS
PREFERRED.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI AND REACHES SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS TUESDAY. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS STILL IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET AND EXIT REGION OF THE WEAKER
JET MAX EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. GENERALLY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850/700 MB RH SATURATES OVER
ALL BUT AREAS NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE DELLS MONDAY NIGHT...AND
REMAINS RATHER HIGH INTO TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION REMAINS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST
GETTING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 06Z DGEX IS SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH QUICKER AND
FARTHER NORTH. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER
MODELS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A COOL EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS RESULTS IN NO
ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE.
.LONG TERM...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO OPEN AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH IS KICKED EAST
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE REACHES MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS AREAS
NORTHWEST OF MADISON DRY. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES WISCONSIN
THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
FRONT...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRY.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MOSTLY A VFR PERIOD BUT WL NEED TO WATCH CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO
THIS EVENING. MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN ERN WI SO ERN TAF SITES
LIKELY NOT AFFECTED BY MUCH. PERHAPS A GLANCING SHOT OF PRECIP
FROM NRN FRINGE OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOC WITH MO/IL SHORTWAVE. MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT MAY ALSO
ALLOW CIGS TO REACH MVFR LEVELS. NAM MOS AND BUFKIT ALONG WITH
LLVL RH PROGS SUGGEST THIS. WILL BANK ON THIS MIXING OUT WITH TIME
WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND MODIFICATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW BEARS WATCHING THOUGH AT THE MOMENT THE GUSTS
AND EXPECTED WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TOO BORDERLINE TO GO WITH AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...RIDGING
OVER WI AND MI...AND A CONVECTIVE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS ENTERED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE DRY AT THE MOMENT. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN. THESE LIE IN
A LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE...ON THE BACK SIDE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WESTERN IOWA.
AIRMASS AROUND THE FRONT FAIRLY MOIST WITH GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWING VALUES OF 1.1-1.3 INCHES. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO
SEASONABLY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT REFLECTED BY 925MB TEMPS AT 00Z
AROUND 20C AT MPX...GRB AND DVN PER RAOBS. MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE
FRONT...READINGS WERE MUCH COOLER WITH 11C AT ABR AND 8C AT BIS.
THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR 500MB HEIGHTS TO FALL TODAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION. THE BIGGER MORE IMPORTANT QUESTION IS HOW MODELS HANDLE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS. THE 07.00Z GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN/ECMWF
TAKE IT EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY IT TO NEARLY A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...THE 07.00Z NAM SENDS IT TO THE EAST...
SPLITS IT INTO TWO AND WEAKENS THEM. LASTLY...THE 07.03Z-06Z RAP
MAINTAINS INTENSITY AND SENDS IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED
A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH WEIGHTS TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF.
THE GENERAL IDEA PRESENTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS. FIRST...THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND TO OUR WEST SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12-16Z. THIS BAND
MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PROGGED TO WANE
SOME. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO FIRE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS SUGGESTED BY MOST
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON THE TRACK OF THE KS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
FARTHER NORTH TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE RAP WOULD YIELD MORE
COVERAGE. CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE DRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN WISCONSIN PER NAM/ECMWF WHERE THEY MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS.
SEVERE CHANCES TODAY ARE LOW WITH 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR LESS THAN
20 KT. HOWEVER...AND THIS IS A BIG HOWEVER...SHOULD THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACH AS THE RAP SUGGESTS...THE 0-6KM SHEAR RAMPS UP TO
35-50KT ACROSS CLAYTON/GRANT COUNTIES BETWEEN 19-21Z. MUCH OF THIS
SHEAR IS ABOVE 4 KM BUT NONETHELESS COULD SUPPORT SOME ROTATING
STORMS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES WITH
CELLS RIDING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
CROSSING THE AREA. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THE POTENTIAL. HAVE
DECIDED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FUNNELS IN THE HWO...PER
COORDINATION WITH DMX AS WELL...ALONG WITH MAINTAINING HEAVY RAIN
CONCERN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.3 INCHES.
HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE COOLER OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
MORNING AND MORE CLOUDS. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
BE JUST A SMIDGE COOLER DUE TO 925MB TEMPS ONLY PROGGED TO TOP OUT
AT 18C. COOLER NIGHT LIKELY TONIGHT AS 925MB PLUNGE TO 12C BY 12Z ON
A BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND...FOLLOWING A FULL PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
MAIN LONG TERM CONCERN IS MOSTLY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
MONDAY.
FLOW LOOKS TO TURN BRIEFLY ZONAL ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BEFORE MODELS SHOW 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING THROUGH
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ONE FOR OUR FOCUS COMES
DOWN OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS
TROUGH...WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN ITS WETTEST SOLUTION WHEN IT COMES
TO QPF. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN ARE THE 07.00Z GFS/CANADIAN
WHICH PRODUCE A DRY SOLUTION. THE DRY SCENARIO IS A RESULT OF THE
OTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH HEADS DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA BASICALLY
ROBBING MOISTURE. THE ECMWF LIES IN-BETWEEN THE TWO
SCENARIOS...THOUGH DOES SEEM TO BE TRENDING DRIER. GIVEN THE
SPREAD...HAVE CONTINUED 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES BUT GIVEN THE ECMWF
TREND THINK A DRIER SCENARIO IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
QUESTION MARK ON PRECIPITATION. HERE TOO FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP DRY...HIGHS MAY NEED A 5 DEGREE
BOOST UP.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS NEW TROUGHING TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S.. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW...THE REFLECTION OF THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY...IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING THROUGH MO AND IL. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD
SNEAK INTO VERY FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. HONORED THIS WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE. ALSO ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED A 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE AREA WITH A FASTER NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH SUGGESTED BY THE
06.12Z ECMWF.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES THAT NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH LIKELY TO
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RENEWED RIDGING OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AS A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY FOR
THE TROUGH THEN...HOWEVER...THE 07.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SUGGEST THIS
TROUGH COULD BE MOISTURE STARVED. FOR THE MOST PART DRIER WEATHER
LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT KEPT SOME LOW 20
PERCENT CHANCES IN THE SOUTH SUGGESTED BY THE 07.00Z GFS. THAT
MODELS HAS THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THURSDAYS TROUGH STALLING IN OUR
SOUTH.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO BE
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. APPEARS THE THREAT FOR TSRA IS OVER FOR KRST...WITH
THE MAIN CONCERN FROM HERE THE POSSIBLITY FOR LIGHT FOG
OVERNIGHT. FOR KLSE...COULD STILL BE SOME TSRA THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON...BUT THREAT IS WANING THERE AS WELL. RAIN SHOULD EXIT
TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHT FOG THERE AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT ADDITION TO THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1102 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ALIGNED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT. SCT TSRA ARE
SHIFTING NE FROM NE IA INTO WRN WI. HRRR TRENDS ARE PREFERRED ON A
SLOWER EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THESE CELLS INTO SC WI THIS AFTN.
BEST CHANCE OF TSRA FOR MOST OF SRN WI WILL BE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT MOVES SE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY CELLS. SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS INTO OH VLY FOR SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH TAKING UP RESIDENCE
ACRS THE WRN GRT LAKES. POST FRONTAL STRATUS POTENTIAL SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/MOS SHOW
SOME OF THIS MIXING OUT IN THE AFTN...ESP IN ERN WI.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD ON INCREASING CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY OVER NORTHWEST WI...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTN AND EVE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND LOW PRESSURE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S HAVE BEEN POOLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT
THIS HIGHER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS AFTN. AS A
RESULT EXPECT SFC BASED CAPE TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTN AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. BESIDES WEAK FRONT...SRN WI WILL
BE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL BE MOVING E-NE. STRONGEST OMEGA WILL
REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO 700H CIRCULATION HOWEVER. NEVER THE
LESS...EXPECTED THIS TRIGGER TO INTERACT WITH INSTABILITY TO CAUSE
SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EVE. WL KEEP LIKELY WORDING IN THE
WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AS FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.
0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS WEAK HOWEVER MOST NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
PARAMETERS ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK BOUNDARY
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI. BOTH WRF ARW AND NMM SHOW 0 TO 1KM
LAPSE RATES AROUND 10C WITH HIGH 0 TO 3KM CAPES WELL OVER THE
THRESHOLD OF 100 J. SFC RELATIVE VORTICITY BORDERLINE BUT ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS INTO HWO OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS AFTN.
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING SO WL CUT BACK ON T
MENTION FOR THE LATE NIGHT. LAKE MI SFC TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S MID-LAKE TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE SHALLOWER
WATERS. AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...EASTERN AREAS SHOULD COOL QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY SBM AREA.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY AS SOME
FORCING WITHIN LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HANGS ON AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY BY
AFTERNOON THOUGH...WITH HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ON SATURDAY.
MODELS STILL HAVE A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT ONLY
THE NAM IS HOLDING ONTO ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SOME
PRECIP CHANCES. OTHER MODELS HAVE MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. HELD ONTO
SOME POPS FOR NOW PER THE NAM...BUT OVERALL IT SEEMS THINGS ARE
TRENDING DRIER FOR MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
MOVE SLOWLY FROM MISSOURI TUESDAY EVENING...TO LAKE HURON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWER
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS ON THE LOW END WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
MAINLY MENTIONED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY DUE TO HIGHER
CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THE GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE SPLOTCHY PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LACK OF MOISTURE SUGGEST DRY
WEATHER...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN
THE WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOSTLY A VFR PERIOD BUT WL NEED TO WATCH SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. SLOWER MOVING CONVECTION MAY
BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING
BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT MAY ALSO ALLOW CIGS TO APPROACH MVFR
LEVELS BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN 12Z
TAFS.
MARINE...PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BEHIND CDFNT THAT WILL BE
SAGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
SHALLOW...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WILL ALLOW NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
MOST FAVORED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUN
MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. WL HOLD OFF ON SMALL
CRAFT ADVY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE BEHIND LAST EVENINGS COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
LATE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AFTN
WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. WEBCAMS
ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO THE SUMMIT SHOW FOG SO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE LOOKS GOOD. WE
HAD A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH CHEYENNE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 1AM THAT CAUSE VIS TO RISE. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THE FOG TO REDEVELOP NEAR CHEYENNE THROUGH SUNRISE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT
LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
COULD MAYBE GET AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE
AFTN...BUT NOT CONFIDENT SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE
PLAINS. SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM IDAHO
TONIGHT AND BE OVERHEAD BY SUN AFTN. LOOKING FOR BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ON SUN WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO BETTER INSTABILITY. STILL CONCERNED THAT PERSISTENT STRATUS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY MORE THAN THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUN AFTN AS THE GFS SHOWS INSTABILITY RISING
TO AROUND 1250 J/KG. COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON SUN
EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL ON SUN NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND 700MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND 2C. MANY LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS (PW VALUES BELOW 0.5
INCHES) COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE IF
ANY CONVECTION ON MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM...ALTHOUGH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH WEAK ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED AS THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM JET OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND AS A THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIDING THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD
SEE A FEW OVERNIGHT STORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AS A LLVL
JET DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA EARLY ON AND OVERRIDES THE SFC BOUNDARY. A
STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW WILL AMPLIFY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...SO CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
FLOW. LOOKING AT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THIS UPSLOPE PATTERN. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WITH A LEESIDE SFC LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONVERGE
WITHIN THE LEESIDE SFC TROUGH. SO LOOKING AT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITHIN THIS
AREA OF SFC FORCING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESSENED DUE TO
MID LEVEL DRYING. THE SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WAVE TREKS EASTWARD...WITH NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED IN ITS
WAKE...DRYING OUT THE LLVLS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
RAWLINS AND LARAMIE...VFR PREVAILS...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AT LARAMIE.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR PREVAILS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH IFR THEN
DEVELOPING UNTIL VFR DEVELOPS AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 60 PERCENT TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND ABOVE 30 PERCENT TO THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014
STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH
PLATTE AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCATIONS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MINOR FLOODING WILL DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH