Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/06/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
230 PM PDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED
ON THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
WARMEST VALUES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S IN
WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN THE SIERRA. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO BRING INSTABILITY TO THE SIERRA.
FOR THIS EVENING, CONVECTION WILL REMAINED CAPPED WITH ONLY
CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS OVER MONO
COUNTY AT BEST. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE SHOWING THIS AS WELL, SO WE
HAVE PULLED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENING.
BY THURSDAY, A POTENTIAL VORTICITY WAVE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY
AREA AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL SIERRA. THIS WILL BRING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING TO THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING, HELPING TO GET
DEEPER CONVECTION GOING OVER THE SIERRA CREST. LATEST NAM/GFS ARE
BOTH SHOWING THIS TREND, AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH INTO THE TAHOE BASIN DUE TO THE ELEVATED
FORCING. WE MAY NEED TO DRAG THE STORM CHANCES FURTHER NORTH INTO
LASSEN COUNTY AS WELL, ALTHOUGH ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING THIS
NORTHERN EXTENT.
WEAK AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WINDS MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO PUSH ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EAST OF THE CREST AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WESTERN NEVADA SIERRA FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW, ALTHOUGH WITH INVERTED-V MODEL SOUNDINGS (DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER) SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MAIN
STORM CORES WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OUTSIDE THE CORES. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WHENEVER WE SEE THESE DRY
LOW LEVELS IN A CONVECTIVE ATMOSPHERE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS WILL
BE GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA SOUTH
OF LAKE TAHOE AND INTO THE PINE NUT MOUNTAINS EAST OF MINDEN-
GARDNERVILLE. HOON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY, MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE CREST OF THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY. FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CA/NV. THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. AS SUCH, THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS A BIT OF A BROAD BRUSH CALLING FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE SIERRA AND MOST OF WESTERN NEVADA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EXITING TUESDAY BUT MODELS HOLD ON
TO SOME INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NV FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. DESPITE THE TROUGH PASSAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR JET
STREAM TO DIP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE DAYTIME ZEPHYR AND BRING POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. JCM
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SIERRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA WITH GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS. THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A STORM TO MOVE OVER
SIERRA AIRFIELDS INCLUDING KMMH...KTVL...AND KTRK. THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR A STORM TO MOVE OVER SIERRA FRONT AIRFIELDS INCLUDING
KRNO AND KCXP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOWS FROM THESE
STORMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS 35-45 KTS. JCM
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1056 AM PDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...REMOVED MENTION OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NEARBY RAOBS AND WV IMAGERY INDICATING A VERY DRY
AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA TODAY. WRF AND RAP RH PROGS INDICATING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TODAY SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 AM PDT WED JUN 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER CA TODAY
AND WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LATER
THIS WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA
COAST AND ALLOW 850/500 MB HTS AND TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE A FEW DEG TODAY AS TEMPS ARE ALREADY SEVERAL DEG WARMER
COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW
AREAS IN THE SOUTH VALLEY SUCH AS BAKERSFIELD WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WHERE TEMPS HAVE SHOWN A
LITTLE LESS WARMING IN TERMS OF 24 HR CHANGE. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SIERRA CREST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THRU FRI AS WEAK TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER CA. RIDGE WILL
MOVE INLAND BY SAT...WARMEST TEMPS REMAIN LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS OVER THE SJ VALLEY...LOWER SIERRA NEVADA
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT AREAS.
AS FOR NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER NORTHERN CA ON MONDAY AND DIG SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. MODELS DEPICT SOME WEAK UPPER LOW OR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE ONSHORE AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SOMEWHAT WEAKEN ON
SUNDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA CREST FOR BOTH SUN AND MON. BY TUE...A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...SO AM LESS CONCERNED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
SIERRA BEYOND MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN
AND RETURN TO THE E. PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO
BELIEVE TEMPS WILL MODERATE.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 06-04 105:1996 66:2011 73:1912 46:1908
KFAT 06-05 107:1981 57:1894 72:1926 48:1956
KFAT 06-06 107:1903 63:1894 75:1926 46:1954
KBFL 06-04 107:1957 70:1999 77:1960 41:1908
KBFL 06-05 108:1981 66:1933 75:1981 43:1908
KBFL 06-06 109:1903 72:1963 78:1977 42:1905
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DS
PREV DISCUSSION...BSO
SYNOPSIS...JDB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
815 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH WESTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT...SOME SHOWERS HAVE FLARED UP JUST TO THE EAST OF
LAKE GEORGE...HEADING MAINLY EAST. TOPS WERE UP TO 20,000...BUT THE
50 DBZ CORE WAS WELL UNDER 27,000 (WHERE LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE).
DID ISSUE A BULLET NOW FOR THAT CELL BUT AT WORST...SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL WITH IT.
THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF ALBANY (ONE HAS POPPED UP OVER THE DUTCHESS/ULSTER COUNTY LINE).
THE LATEST HRRR LOOKS TO HANDLE THE ACTIVITY NEAR LAKE GEORGE
WELL...BUT DOES NOT HAVE ANYTHING FURTHER SOUTH.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THAT REGION. ANOTHER SHORT WAS WAS
WORKING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS ONE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER ON THIS EVENING AND MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
FOR THIS UPDATE...TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE NEAR
TERM CHANGES (MORE ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH). BELIEVE ANY
CONVECTION WELL TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD DIE OUT ONCE THE SUN SETS.
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD/REDEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING E/SE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO...AND A LARGER COLD POOL NOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE...AND ANOTHER ONE FOR
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BECOME PREDOMINATE...ESPECIALLY
FROM AROUND INTERSTATE 90 NORTHWARD. TO THE SOUTH...THERE SHOULD BE
SOME PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY...TO EVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FORCING FROM THE TWO OVERNIGHT WAVES...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH AS FAR S AS
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
CATSKILLS...ESP AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS PERSIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...SOME CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
THEN...SKIES MAY TREND TO PARTLY OR EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD IN THE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ESP IN
VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER
70S...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BUILD UP RATHER QUICKLY BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES POSSIBLE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
STILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN VT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID/UPPER 70S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AS MIXING DEEPENS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MODELS SO SUGGEST A COLD POOL TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DEEP LAYER
OF DRY AIR AS WELL. SO...NO MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION AT THIS
TIME...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 80-85 IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MIN TEMPS FOR BOTH FRI
NT/SAT AM...AND SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND INTO THE SOMEWHAT CHILLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS.
SUNDAY...MODELS DIVERGE IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IT APPEARS
THAT...AT THE VERY LEAST...AS OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...SLIGHT CHC POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED FOR AREAS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES JUST A LITTLE FASTER...THEN THE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR AREAS NEAR
AND W OF THE HUDSON RIVER. IT SHOULD BE WARM AND MORE HUMID...WITH
MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT MAX TEMPS
COULD BE EVEN WARMER IN VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ARE
IN THE FORECAST BASED OFF OF DIURNAL HEATING TRENDS AND THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SMALL UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE TO THE EAST TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WE GO TOWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS WE GO LATER INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...A WEAK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP AND WITH WITH WEAK WINDS
ALOFT...NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN AREAS OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IN A SLIGHTLY
FAVORABLE AREA OF SOME 500 HPA VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH JUST AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS ALL SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST AND EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACCORDING TO SOME OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK DYNAMIC SET UP FOR ENHANCED VERTICAL
ASCENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-80KT JET.
IN-CONJUNCTION WITH A SET OF WEAK SURFACE LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
POLEWARD ALONG THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID OHIO
VALLEY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE PLATEAU OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A MORE DYNAMIC SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING THE HIGHEST POPS.
OTHERWISE WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR A STALLED OUT FRONT...MOST
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY INDUCED WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 60S WITH THIS HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT...ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING THROUGH
OUR REGION EARLY EVENING...AND ONE MORE TO WORK FROM LAKE ONTARIO
LATER TONIGHT. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE A FEW ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS HAVE FLARED UP AROUND KGFL...PRODUCING OVER A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT THAT SITE...BUT SHOULD MAINLY MOVING OUT AFTER 01Z. SINCE
THE GROUND WILL LIKELY REMAIN WET THIS EVENING...WE WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED A TEMPO FOR IFR FOG (2SM BR) FROM 03Z-06Z...EVEN WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS (VCSH).
AFTER 06Z IT LOOKS MORE LIKE MVFR MIST (3SM) AS THE GROUNDS DRIES A
LITTLE MORE AND CLOUDS THICKEN.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...EXCEPT MIST (BR) AFTER 06Z AT
KPOU SINCE THEY RECEIVED OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EARLIER
TODAY...AND THE WIND LOOKS TO REMAIN LIGHT THERE.
KALB AND KPSF HAVE HAD SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING...AND SO
FAR...LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. (ANY "RAIN" THAT FELL EARLIER
AT THE ASOS WAS LIKELY BOGUS DUE TO MALFUNCTIONING RAIN GAGE).
STILL...MVFR CLOUDS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET (A LITTLE OVER 50 PERCENT)
OVERNIGHT BUT IFR CONDITIONS LOOK VERY LOW (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT SO
NO MENTION IN THE KPOU/KALB AND KPSF TAFS). KALB/KPSF TAF SITES
SHOULD SEE A WNW WIND REMAIN AT 5KTS OR GREATER MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WHILE THE OTHER TWO SITES (KPOU/KGFL) THE WIND GOES LIGHT LESS THAN
5KTS.
BY THE MORNING PEAK...ANY MVFR MIST AND OR MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH OR NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
KICK UP AROUND 10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY AFTERNOON
(16Z). WENT SCT EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT VFR BKN CIGS AT
KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. VISIBILITIES LOOKS UNRESTRICTED.
THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER MAINLY AT KGFL BUT FOR NOW CHANCES
LOOK TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH WESTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE RH WILL RECOVER INTO THE 80-100 PERCENT RANGE TONIGHT...THEN
FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN VALLEY AREAS...AND 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRI AFTN. THE RH WILL RISE BACK TO 90-100 FOR
FIR NT...WITH DEW FORMATION LIKELY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY FROM ONE TENTH TO
ONE THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS...WHILE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 88...AND
NORTH OF I-90 RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO RAIN.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST AREAS.
THIS AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE MAIN BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS BY MORNING. CURRENT 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS
REMNANTS OF MCS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CSRA...BUT HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE BEING OVER NORTH GEORGIA. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATED THIS WEAKENING AND IT CONTINUES TO DO SO. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/SRN CSRA REMAINS WEAKLY/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AS REMNANTS
OF THE MCS MOVE SEWD. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SAVANNAH
RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT LOWER POPS FROM THAT POINT ONWARD
TOWARD DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
MIDLANDS/CSRA AND PIEDMONT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH
PWAT 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MID- WEEK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY
TO KEEP THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
WILL WASH OUT BY MONDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...GIVEN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE CSRA AND COULD
IMPACT AGS/DNL WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS IN
THUNDERSTORMS 03Z-04Z. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY AFTER 12Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 7 MPH EXPECTED AFTER 14Z. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AFTER 18Z
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WILL ALLOW LATER
SHIFTS TO EVALUATE FOR BETTER TIMING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
902 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE MAIN BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTH WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED AND
AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY. BIGGER ISSUE MAY REVOLVE AROUND
UPSTREAM MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS
EVENING. HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IS PUSHES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CSRA. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT
LOWER POPS FROM THAT POINT ONWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH...TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
MIDLANDS/CSRA AND PIEDMONT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH
PWAT 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MID- WEEK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY
TO KEEP THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
WILL WASH OUT BY MONDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...GIVEN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN GEORGIA COULD IMPACT
THE AGS/DNL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF
THESE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND RE-EVALUATE FOR
THE 03Z UPDATE. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY AFTER 12Z. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 7 MPH EXPECTED AFTER 14Z. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AFTER 18Z IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
EVALUATE FOR BETTER TIMING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
250 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GENERALLY LOW END MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CONDS...SHUD SEE A BUMP
TO MVFR BY 21Z.
* WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE 040-060 DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS ARND 12KT.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18KT MAY OCCUR THRU 22Z.
* WINDS TURN NORTH CLOSER TO 00Z AND DECREASE AS CLOUDS THIN AND
BECOME SKC.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER A LIGHT GRADIENT HAS
ALLOWED LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN IFR CONDS
DEVELOP...HOWEVER MOST AREAS ARE HOLDING AT LOW END MVFR. TO THE
NORTH OF ORD/RFD VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO SOUTHERN WISC AIRFIELDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO OCCUR THRU 02Z. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FILTER IN WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...THIS SHUD HELP TO FURTHER ERODE
ANY LINGERING LOW/MID DECK CLOUDS BTWN 2-4Z...WITH SKC CONDS
DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ARND 3-6KT WITH SKC CONDS OVERNIGHT. THEN WITH SOME
HEATING LATE THUR MORNING...WINDS ALONG NORTHEAST IL WILL BEGIN TO
TURN NORTHEAST/EAST AND ALLOW A SLIGHT TURN TO A 070-090
DIRECATION AT ORD/MDW.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS AFT 02Z.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA BCMG SCHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS EAST...THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITING THE
LAKE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL ASSIST THE FRONT IN MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
EARLY SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS POTENTIALLY AROUND 20 KT DURING
THIS PERIOD FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE
THE STRONGEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LAKES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH.
FOR ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
TOPPING OUT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SINCE LATE THIS MORNING...
SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MARGINAL CONDITIONS EXIST...MAINLY
BETWEEN WILMETTE HARBOR AND GARY BASED ON WIND DIRECTION AND OBS
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT AM
PLANNING TO DROP SCA AND BEACH HAZARD HEADLINES WITH AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ014 UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001 UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
209 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GENERALLY LOW END MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CONDS...SHUD SEE A BUMP
TO MVFR BY 21Z.
* WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE 040-060 DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS ARND
12-15KT. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18KT MAY OCCUR THRU 22Z.
* WINDS TURN NORTH CLOSER TO 02Z AND DECREASE AS CLOUDS THIN AND
BECOME SKC.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER A LIGHT GRADIENT HAS
ALLOWED LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN IFR CONDS
DEVELOP...HOWEVER MOST AREAS ARE HOLDING AT LOW END MVFR. TO THE
NORTH OF ORD/RFD VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO SOUTHERN WISC AIRFIELDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO OCCUR THRU 02Z. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FILTER IN WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...THIS SHUD HELP TO FURTHER ERODE
ANY LINGERING LOW/MID DECK CLOUDS BTWN 2-4Z...WITH SKC CONDS
DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ARND 3-6KT WITH SKC CONDS OVERNIGHT. THEN WITH SOME
HEATING LATE THUR MORNING...WINDS ALONG NORTHEAST IL WILL BEGIN TO
TURN NORTHEAST/EAST AND ALLOW A SLIGHT TURN TO A 070-090
DIRECATION AT ORD/MDW.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF SITES REMAINING DRY.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS AFT 02Z.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA BCMG SCHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS EAST...THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITING THE
LAKE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL ASSIST THE FRONT IN MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
EARLY SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS POTENTIALLY AROUND 20 KT DURING
THIS PERIOD FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE
THE STRONGEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LAKES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH.
FOR ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
TOPPING OUT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SINCE LATE THIS MORNING...
SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MARGINAL CONDITIONS EXIST...MAINLY
BETWEEN WILMETTE HARBOR AND GARY BASED ON WIND DIRECTION AND OBS
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT AM
PLANNING TO DROP SCA AND BEACH HAZARD HEADLINES WITH AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1258 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GENERALLY LOW END MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CONDS...SHUD SEE A BUMP
TO MVFR BY 21Z.
* WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE 040-060 DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS ARND
12-15KT. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18KT MAY OCCUR THRU 22Z.
* WINDS TURN NORTH CLOSER TO 02Z AND DECREASE AS CLOUDS THIN AND
BECOME SKC.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER A LIGHT GRADIENT HAS
ALLOWED LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN IFR CONDS
DEVELOP...HOWEVER MOST AREAS ARE HOLDING AT LOW END MVFR. TO THE
NORTH OF ORD/RFD VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO SOUTHERN WISC AIRFIELDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO OCCUR THRU 02Z. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FILTER IN WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...THIS SHUD HELP TO FURTHER ERODE
ANY LINGERING LOW/MID DECK CLOUDS BTWN 2-4Z...WITH SKC CONDS
DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ARND 3-6KT WITH SKC CONDS OVERNIGHT. THEN WITH SOME
HEATING LATE THUR MORNING...WINDS ALONG NORTHEAST IL WILL BEGIN TO
TURN NORTHEAST/EAST AND ALLOW A SLIGHT TURN TO A 070-090
DIRECATION AT ORD/MDW.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF SITES REMAINING DRY.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS AFT 02Z.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA BCMG SCHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
HEADLINES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA...MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS OVER KANSAS AND IT WILL FILL AS
IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRAVELS...THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATER. KEPT EAST WINDS
15-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS TURN NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS THEN
SLOWLY BACK TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WITH THE OPTIONS BEING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY WINDS
TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS LOW AND WE RETURN TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1108 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* VCSH THRU 18Z.
* E TO NE WINDS...POSSIBLE GUSTS DEVELOPING IN AFTN.
* MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS PSBL THIS MORNING AND MAY LINGER INTO
THIS AFTN.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT RAIN IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END AND EXPECTING TO BE DRY
BY MID MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH THE RAIN BUT NOT
SURE HOW FAR EAST OR HOW WIDESPREAD THE LOW CIGS WILL BE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM BACK
INTO THE TAFS. ALSO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THEY WILL
LAST.
EAST WINDS BEGIN GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI PASSES OVER CENTRAL IL
THIS AFTN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. AS SUCH NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN RA/VCSH ENDING BY 18Z.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FORMING AND HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST
INTO THIS AFTN.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/GUSTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA BCMG SCHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
HEADLINES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA...MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS OVER KANSAS AND IT WILL FILL AS
IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRAVELS...THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATER. KEPT EAST WINDS
15-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS TURN NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS THEN
SLOWLY BACK TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WITH THE OPTIONS BEING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY WINDS
TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS LOW AND WE RETURN TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
919 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* -RA ENDING ARND 16Z.
* E TO NE WINDS...POSSIBLE GUSTS DEVELOPING IN AFTN.
* MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS PSBL THIS MORNING AND MAY LINGER INTO
THIS AFTN.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT RAIN IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END AND EXPECTING TO BE DRY
BY MID MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH THE RAIN BUT NOT
SURE HOW FAR EAST OR HOW WIDESPREAD THE LOW CIGS WILL BE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM BACK
INTO THE TAFS. ALSO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THEY WILL
LAST.
EAST WINDS BEGIN GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI PASSES OVER CENTRAL IL
THIS AFTN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. AS SUCH NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -RA...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHEN -RA
WILL END.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FORMING AND HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST
INTO THIS AFTN.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MORNING WIND FORECAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE/BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA BCMG SCHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
HEADLINES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA...MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS OVER KANSAS AND IT WILL FILL AS
IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRAVELS...THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATER. KEPT EAST WINDS
15-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS TURN NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS THEN
SLOWLY BACK TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WITH THE OPTIONS BEING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY WINDS
TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS LOW AND WE RETURN TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
641 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* -RA ENDING BY 15Z.
* E TO NE WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT TODAY.
* MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS PSBL THIS MORNING AND MAY LINGER INTO
THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT RAIN IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END AND EXPECTING TO BE DRY
BY MID MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH THE RAIN BUT NOT
SURE HOW FAR EAST OR HOW WIDESPREAD THE LOW CIGS WILL BE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM BACK
INTO THE TAFS. ALSO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THEY WILL
LAST.
EAST WINDS BEGIN GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI PASSES OVER CENTRAL IL
THIS AFTN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. AS SUCH NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -RA...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHEN -RA
WILL END.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FORMING AND HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST
INTO THIS AFTN.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MORNING WIND FORECAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA BCMG SCHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
HEADLINES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA...MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS OVER KANSAS AND IT WILL FILL AS
IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRAVELS...THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATER. KEPT EAST WINDS
15-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS TURN NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS THEN
SLOWLY BACK TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WITH THE OPTIONS BEING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY WINDS
TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS LOW AND WE RETURN TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
408 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* -RA EARLY THIS MORNING...MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED.
* E TO NE WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT TODAY.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS HOLDING ON OVER THE REGION WHILE A STRONG STORM
COMPLEX IS MOVING THROUGH IA AND CENTRAL IL. THE SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
VCSH TO -SHRA ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS AMPLE DRY AIR
OVER NORTHERN IL WHICH MAY EVAPORATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN.
IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...RAIN WOULD MOVE IN LATER THAN FORECAST.
CIGS TO THE WEST ARE MOSTLY VFR BUT THERE ARE A FEW SITES WITH IFR
TO MVFR CIGS. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DELAY MVFR CIGS AT THE
TERMINALS BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PULL
MVFR CIGS COMPLETELY. WONDERING IF THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE
-SHRA WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR A SHORT WHILE.
WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ALSO A MESS WITH WINDS SHOWING GREAT
VARIABILITY. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH...THE TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY BE CAUGHT IN THE MESSY WIND FIELD. LEFT EAST WINDS IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WE COULD SEE WINDS FROM THE NORTH OR THE EAST.
EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTN WITH CIGS LIFTING AND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE IN STORE TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -RA...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WHEN -RA WILL END.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS NOT FORMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MORNING WIND FORECAST. WINDS HAVE SETTLED A
BIT TO THE WEST...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS IS
PSBL.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
HEADLINES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA...MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS OVER KANSAS AND IT WILL FILL AS
IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRAVELS...THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATER. KEPT EAST WINDS
15-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS TURN NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS THEN
SLOWLY BACK TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WITH THE OPTIONS BEING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY WINDS
TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS LOW AND WE RETURN TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
332 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* -SHRA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED.
* MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN THE MID MORNING.
* E TO NE WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT TODAY.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS HOLDING ON OVER THE REGION WHILE A STRONG STORM
COMPLEX IS MOVING THROUGH IA AND CENTRAL IL. THE SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
VCSH TO -SHRA ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS AMPLE DRY AIR
OVER NORTHERN IL WHICH MAY EVAPORATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN.
IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...RAIN WOULD MOVE IN LATER THAN FORECAST.
CIGS TO THE WEST ARE MOSTLY VFR BUT THERE ARE A FEW SITES WITH IFR
TO MVFR CIGS. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DELAY MVFR CIGS AT THE
TERMINALS BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PULL
MVFR CIGS COMPLETELY. WONDERING IF THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE
-SHRA WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR A SHORT WHILE.
WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ALSO A MESS WITH WINDS SHOWING GREAT
VARIABILITY. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH...THE TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY BE CAUGHT IN THE MESSY WIND FIELD. LEFT EAST WINDS IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WE COULD SEE WINDS FROM THE NORTH OR THE EAST.
EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTN WITH CIGS LIFTING AND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE IN STORE TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA OCCURRING AND TIMING. LINE OF STORMS
MAY PASS TO THE SOUTH AND ARRIVE LATER THAN FORECAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA HAVING A MINIMUM IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM WINDS ARE
EXTREMELY CHAOTIC DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM AND THE CHAOS MAY MOVE
OVER NORTHERN IL.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
HEADLINES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA...MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS OVER KANSAS AND IT WILL FILL AS
IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRAVELS...THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATER. KEPT EAST WINDS
15-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS TURN NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS THEN
SLOWLY BACK TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WITH THE OPTIONS BEING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY WINDS
TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS LOW AND WE RETURN TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
257 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
832 PM CDT
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO OUR WEST
PAINTING A PROGRESSIVELY MORE CLEAR PICTURE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT
IS FOR ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY SOUTH OF
A PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE. ALSO THINK THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN
INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED DOWN THOSE SOMEWHAT. HAVE
ADDED SOME TEMPORAL RESOLUTION INTO THE POPS AS A MORE CLEAR CUT
PICTURE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW FAR
NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AND FOR HOW LONG...BUT LOOKING STILL LIKE A
GOOD SOAKING FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
A POTENT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND VORT MAX ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM MANY
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NE/SOUTHERN IA/FAR NORTHERN MO. ONE EARLIER SUCH LONG-LIVED
CLUSTER THAT MOVED FROM SD THIS MORNING TO FAR NORTHERN MO NOW HAS
LIKELY PLAYED A BIG FACTOR IN KEEPING A MORE SINGLE WIDESPREAD
MCS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVE...AND KEEPING THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT PARKED NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER. THE UPPER SUPPORT AND
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LLJ AND THIS SUPPORT STILL
REALLY SCREAM TOWARD A MORPHING OF MANY OF THE WESTERN CLUSTERS
INTO A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE MCS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD..OVERTAKING SOME OF THE FURTHER EAST
CLUSTERS. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF DEEPER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BASICALLY SOUTH OF THE DVN/ILX RAOBS AND RAP DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS
OF MCS MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS...THE BRUNT OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION
WOULD PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A STILL HEALTHY CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT IS LIKELY TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 3-7 AM TIME...DRIVEN MORE BY THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THIS.
A CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTY POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS REMAINS...BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CWA
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION IT PRESENTS A POSSIBILITY OF WAKE LOW
GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF COLD POOL COMING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DIMINISHING SOME LIKELY EASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OF TWO ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE MAY GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE WI BORDER GIVEN UPPER
SUPPORT AND MID-LEVEL F-GEN. BUT DO NOT HAVE THE GREATEST FEEL FOR
THIS...SO HAVE TAPERED POPS IN THE NORTH SLIGHTLY...BUT QPF MUCH
MORE SO...INCLUDING OVER ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO. CONTINUE WITH OVER
AN INCH FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER WEATHER TAKES HOLD WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BUT
CONTINUED LAKE BREEZE COOLING THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS SETTLED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND PER 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
WAS FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL IL/IND. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A DRY/COOL EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A LAKE BREEZE BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND ADDING LAKE COOLING
AS WELL. A FAIRLY STOUT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WITH STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION PERSISTING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN EXPANSION IN CURRENT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT SEVERE STORMS
EVOLVING INTO AN MCS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA BY
EVENING...QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS A QUICK-MOVING
BOW/DERECHO COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER REGION INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT. SPC HAS JUST UPGRADED
SOUTHERN IOWA PORTION OF THE DAY 1 SEVERE OUTLOOK TO A HIGH RISK.
FOR THE WFO LOT FORECAST AREA...FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE WHICH MAY SHIFT A BIT NORTH WITH TIME DUE TO
PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH
THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT...AS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISE INTO THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. TIMING OF STORMS SHOULD BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH HOURLY HIGH-RES RAP/HRRR MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SPEEDING THE
PROPAGATION OF EVOLVING COMPLEX. IN ANY CASE...SVR/HVY RAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE A LATE NIGHT/VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING EVENT.
WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE DECREASING WITH TIME FROM NORTH-SOUTH AS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING OF COLUMN ALL EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST-NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/NORTHEAST WINDS...
RAIN AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-80. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
WARM-UP BACK TO AVERAGE TEMPS (MID-UPPER 70S) BY FRIDAY. FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL MAINTAIN LAKE COOLING WITH 60S NEAR THE SHORE BOTH
DAYS HOWEVER.
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER RIDGE OFF
TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST AS A MID-LEVEL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY-SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* -SHRA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED.
* MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN THE MID MORNING.
* E TO NE WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT TODAY.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS HOLDING ON OVER THE REGION WHILE A STRONG STORM
COMPLEX IS MOVING THROUGH IA AND CENTRAL IL. THE SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
VCSH TO -SHRA ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS AMPLE DRY AIR
OVER NORTHERN IL WHICH MAY EVAPORATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN.
IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...RAIN WOULD MOVE IN LATER THAN FORECAST.
CIGS TO THE WEST ARE MOSTLY VFR BUT THERE ARE A FEW SITES WITH IFR
TO MVFR CIGS. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DELAY MVFR CIGS AT THE
TERMINALS BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PULL
MVFR CIGS COMPLETELY. WONDERING IF THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE
-SHRA WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR A SHORT WHILE.
WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ALSO A MESS WITH WINDS SHOWING GREAT
VARIABILITY. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH...THE TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY BE CAUGHT IN THE MESSY WIND FIELD. LEFT EAST WINDS IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WE COULD SEE WINDS FROM THE NORTH OR THE EAST.
EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTN WITH CIGS LIFTING AND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE IN STORE TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA OCCURRING AND TIMING. LINE OF STORMS
MAY PASS TO THE SOUTH AND ARRIVE LATER THAN FORECAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA HAVING A MINIMUM IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM WINDS ARE
EXTREMELY CHAOTIC DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM AND THE CHAOS MAY MOVE
OVER NORTHERN IL.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
HEADLINES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA...MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS OVER KANSAS AND IT WILL FILL AS
IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRAVELS...THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATER. KEPT EAST WINDS
15-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS TURN NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS THEN
SLOWLY BACK TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WITH THE OPTIONS BEING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY WINDS
TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS LOW AND WE RETURN TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1244 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
832 PM CDT
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO OUR WEST
PAINTING A PROGRESSIVELY MORE CLEAR PICTURE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT
IS FOR ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY SOUTH OF
A PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE. ALSO THINK THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN
INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED DOWN THOSE SOMEWHAT. HAVE
ADDED SOME TEMPORAL RESOLUTION INTO THE POPS AS A MORE CLEAR CUT
PICTURE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW FAR
NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AND FOR HOW LONG...BUT LOOKING STILL LIKE A
GOOD SOAKING FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
A POTENT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND VORT MAX ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM MANY
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NE/SOUTHERN IA/FAR NORTHERN MO. ONE EARLIER SUCH LONG-LIVED
CLUSTER THAT MOVED FROM SD THIS MORNING TO FAR NORTHERN MO NOW HAS
LIKELY PLAYED A BIG FACTOR IN KEEPING A MORE SINGLE WIDESPREAD
MCS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVE...AND KEEPING THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT PARKED NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER. THE UPPER SUPPORT AND
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LLJ AND THIS SUPPORT STILL
REALLY SCREAM TOWARD A MORPHING OF MANY OF THE WESTERN CLUSTERS
INTO A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE MCS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD..OVERTAKING SOME OF THE FURTHER EAST
CLUSTERS. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF DEEPER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BASICALLY SOUTH OF THE DVN/ILX RAOBS AND RAP DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS
OF MCS MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS...THE BRUNT OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION
WOULD PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A STILL HEALTHY CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT IS LIKELY TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 3-7 AM TIME...DRIVEN MORE BY THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THIS.
A CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTY POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS REMAINS...BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CWA
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION IT PRESENTS A POSSIBILITY OF WAKE LOW
GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF COLD POOL COMING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DIMINISHING SOME LIKELY EASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OF TWO ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE MAY GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE WI BORDER GIVEN UPPER
SUPPORT AND MID-LEVEL F-GEN. BUT DO NOT HAVE THE GREATEST FEEL FOR
THIS...SO HAVE TAPERED POPS IN THE NORTH SLIGHTLY...BUT QPF MUCH
MORE SO...INCLUDING OVER ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO. CONTINUE WITH OVER
AN INCH FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER WEATHER TAKES HOLD WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BUT
CONTINUED LAKE BREEZE COOLING THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS SETTLED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND PER 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
WAS FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL IL/IND. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A DRY/COOL EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A LAKE BREEZE BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND ADDING LAKE COOLING
AS WELL. A FAIRLY STOUT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WITH STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION PERSISTING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN EXPANSION IN CURRENT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT SEVERE STORMS
EVOLVING INTO AN MCS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA BY
EVENING...QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS A QUICK-MOVING
BOW/DERECHO COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER REGION INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT. SPC HAS JUST UPGRADED
SOUTHERN IOWA PORTION OF THE DAY 1 SEVERE OUTLOOK TO A HIGH RISK.
FOR THE WFO LOT FORECAST AREA...FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE WHICH MAY SHIFT A BIT NORTH WITH TIME DUE TO
PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH
THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT...AS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISE INTO THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. TIMING OF STORMS SHOULD BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH HOURLY HIGH-RES RAP/HRRR MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SPEEDING THE
PROPAGATION OF EVOLVING COMPLEX. IN ANY CASE...SVR/HVY RAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE A LATE NIGHT/VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING EVENT.
WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE DECREASING WITH TIME FROM NORTH-SOUTH AS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING OF COLUMN ALL EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST-NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/NORTHEAST WINDS...
RAIN AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-80. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
WARM-UP BACK TO AVERAGE TEMPS (MID-UPPER 70S) BY FRIDAY. FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL MAINTAIN LAKE COOLING WITH 60S NEAR THE SHORE BOTH
DAYS HOWEVER.
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER RIDGE OFF
TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST AS A MID-LEVEL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY-SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* -SHRA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED.
* MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN THE MID MORNING.
* E TO NE WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT TODAY.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS HOLDING ON OVER THE REGION WHILE A STRONG STORM
COMPLEX IS MOVING THROUGH IA AND CENTRAL IL. THE SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
VCSH TO -SHRA ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS AMPLE DRY AIR
OVER NORTHERN IL WHICH MAY EVAPORATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN.
IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...RAIN WOULD MOVE IN LATER THAN FORECAST.
CIGS TO THE WEST ARE MOSTLY VFR BUT THERE ARE A FEW SITES WITH IFR
TO MVFR CIGS. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DELAY MVFR CIGS AT THE
TERMINALS BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PULL
MVFR CIGS COMPLETELY. WONDERING IF THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE
-SHRA WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR A SHORT WHILE.
WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ALSO A MESS WITH WINDS SHOWING GREAT
VARIABILITY. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH...THE TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY BE CAUGHT IN THE MESSY WIND FIELD. LEFT EAST WINDS IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WE COULD SEE WINDS FROM THE NORTH OR THE EAST.
EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTN WITH CIGS LIFTING AND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE IN STORE TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA OCCURRING AND TIMING. LINE OF STORMS
MAY PASS TO THE SOUTH AND ARRIVE LATER THAN FORECAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA HAVING A MINIMUM IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM WINDS ARE
EXTREMELY CHAOTIC DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM AND THE CHAOS MAY MOVE
OVER NORTHERN IL.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
A SERIES OF HIGHS AND LOWS WILL PRODUCE RAPIDLY VARYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS GENERALLY WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...THE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN A BIT OVER THE SOUTH HALF TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...A LOW CENTER
PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
LAKE. NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY WILL STAY BELOW GALE CRITERIA
BUT LIKELY WILL VARY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT STARTING BY LATE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE AFTER TOMORROW INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW CENTER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PASS NEAR THE SOUTH END OF
THE LAKE.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1046 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND STRATIFORM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY SEVERELY INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE INDY METRO
TODAY...LEAVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE MORE LIKELY
FOCUS FOR SEVERE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTH AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREAS OF OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS WHERE MORE SUN APPEARS
LIKELY. IN ANY CASE...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH THE MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS FLOOD THREAT. THIS THREAT WILL
RAPIDLY WANE THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA AND DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD WELL OUT OF THE REGION...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
WSR 88D SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WITH THE BACK EDGE EAST OF ATTICA TO
ROCKVILLE TO LINTON TO VINCENNES AS OF 1030 AM EDT. LOW PRESSURE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS NEAR CARROLLTON. RADAR
MOSAIC IS SHOWING SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT NORTHEAST OF THE LOW OVER
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AS WELL AS A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SHORT TERM MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN/TSTORMS MOVING EAST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY AROUND 18Z BUT THEN SOME SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS WELL
AS SOME DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW. EARLIER THINKING
ABOUT DEBRIS CLOUDS INHIBITING DESTABILIZATION LOOKS GOOD...AND
CURRENTLY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA.
THIS COULD KEEP THE MAIN SEVERE RISK SOUTH OF THE AREA OR JUST UP
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL STILL
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPDATE ADDED
TIMING TO POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND RELEGATED HIGHEST POPS
TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND STRATIFORM PRECIP IS LIKELY TO BE MORE
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD...ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE INDY METRO...THIS
WILL SEVERELY HAMPER DESTABILIZATION AND THUS REDUCE SEVERE THREAT
TODAY...AND SHIFTING OF FOCUS IN SPC DAY ONE TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA AND SOUTHWARD IS REASONABLE AND EXPECTED.
MAY SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY LATE MORNING AS INITIAL STORMS WANE
SOMEWHAT...AND THIS MAY ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AS
BREAKS OPEN IN THE CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INTENSIFIES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AMPLE IF NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...AND OVERALL INSTABILITY AGAIN AMPLE
IF NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...A DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL DOMINATE...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR STILL
REMAINS AT LEAST MODERATELY SUPPORTIVE AND A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
WHEN STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARILY DISCRETE AND MAY
ENCOUNTER BOTH THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND ENHANCED HELICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPEAR TO BE A BIT OVERDONE
COMPARED TO 00Z RAOBS...BUT EVEN TRUNCATING THESE VALUES A
BIT...STILL SHOULD SEE VALUES PUSHING 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL...OR
NEARING PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER CLIMATOLOGY.
THUS...COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 12-13KFT...FLOODING THREAT REMAINS HIGH ON THE LIST...AND
DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DOES INCLUDE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE EXCEEDENCE. FORTUNATELY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD AND SEVERE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
STORMS WILL QUICKLY BE EXITING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT THE AREA TO BE DRY BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
ON TEMPS...BLEND OF GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE WITH A FEW TWEAKS
UPWARD ON MAXES FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE RESIDES IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PULLS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION. MODEL VARIANCE DOES
EXIST REGARDING TIMING AND SPECIFIC TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN COMMITTING TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK AS THE WAVE DEPARTS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES.
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS EXTENDED
MODELS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND TIMING OF
WAVES ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ANY OF THESE UPPER WAVES LIKELY
TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONT
IS DRAWN BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE OF
THESE WAVES PASSES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR 041200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
VERY WET AND MESSY PERIOD AS MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST IL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL IN THROUGH 17Z. TRIED TO UPDATE ALL
TAF SITES TO CONVEY THAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO IFR
TERRITORY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAPID UPDATE MODELS SHOW THAT
THERE SHOULD BE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FOR KBMG THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY DAYTIME HEATING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THINK THAT
WE WILL BE GOING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE IMPACTS
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION...BUT SUSPECT FOCUS FOR RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WHERE AIRMASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. HRRR AGREES WITH
THIS THINKING AND HAVE TAILORED THE TAFS TOWARDS THIS IDEA. WILL
CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH GREATER
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE FELT AT KBMG AND POSSIBLY AT KHUF/KIND.
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.
STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TAKING OVER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS OFF TO THE
SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS THIS
EVENING WITH SOME FOG AS WELL. AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ON
N/NE WINDS LATE TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD/CP
NEAR TERM...NIELD/CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/DWM
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FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1010 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE STATE LINE
WESTWARD TO THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING...LIKELY WEAKENING WITH TIME. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
STRATIFORM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY SEVERELY
INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE INDY
METRO TODAY...LEAVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE MORE
LIKELY FOCUS FOR SEVERE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTH AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREAS OF OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS WHERE MORE SUN
APPEARS LIKELY. IN ANY CASE...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH THE MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS FLOOD THREAT. THIS THREAT WILL
RAPIDLY WANE THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA AND DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD WELL OUT OF THE REGION...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE
MIDST OF A CONSOLIDATION BUT ALSO A WEAKENING...AS LIGHTNING
COUNTS HAVE FALLEN DRAMATICALLY AND CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO
WARM STEADILY...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING VERY SOON IN
THE WEST/NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
STRATIFORM PRECIP IS LIKELY TO BE MORE PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD...ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE INDY METRO...THIS WILL SEVERELY
HAMPER DESTABILIZATION AND THUS REDUCE SEVERE THREAT TODAY...AND
SHIFTING OF FOCUS IN SPC DAY ONE TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
AND SOUTHWARD IS REASONABLE AND EXPECTED.
MAY SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY LATE MORNING AS INITIAL STORMS WANE
SOMEWHAT...AND THIS MAY ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AS
BREAKS OPEN IN THE CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INTENSIFIES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AMPLE IF NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...AND OVERALL INSTABILITY AGAIN AMPLE
IF NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...A DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL DOMINATE...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR STILL
REMAINS AT LEAST MODERATELY SUPPORTIVE AND A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
WHEN STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARILY DISCRETE AND MAY
ENCOUNTER BOTH THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND ENHANCED HELICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPEAR TO BE A BIT OVERDONE
COMPARED TO 00Z RAOBS...BUT EVEN TRUNCATING THESE VALUES A
BIT...STILL SHOULD SEE VALUES PUSHING 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL...OR
NEARING PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER CLIMATOLOGY.
THUS...COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 12-13KFT...FLOODING THREAT REMAINS HIGH ON THE LIST...AND
DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DOES INCLUDE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE EXCEEDENCE. FORTUNATELY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD AND SEVERE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
STORMS WILL QUICKLY BE EXITING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT THE AREA TO BE DRY BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
ON TEMPS...BLEND OF GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE WITH A FEW TWEAKS
UPWARD ON MAXES FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE RESIDES IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PULLS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION. MODEL VARIANCE DOES
EXIST REGARDING TIMING AND SPECIFIC TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN COMMITTING TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK AS THE WAVE DEPARTS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES.
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS EXTENDED
MODELS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND TIMING OF
WAVES ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ANY OF THESE UPPER WAVES LIKELY
TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONT
IS DRAWN BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE OF
THESE WAVES PASSES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR 041200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
VERY WET AND MESSY PERIOD AS MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST IL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL IN THROUGH 17Z. TRIED TO UPDATE ALL
TAF SITES TO CONVEY THAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO IFR
TERRITORY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAPID UPDATE MODELS SHOW THAT
THERE SHOULD BE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FOR KBMG THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY DAYTIME HEATING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THINK THAT
WE WILL BE GOING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE IMPACTS
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION...BUT SUSPECT FOCUS FOR RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WHERE AIRMASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. HRRR AGREES WITH
THIS THINKING AND HAVE TAILORED THE TAFS TOWARDS THIS IDEA. WILL
CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH GREATER
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE FELT AT KBMG AND POSSIBLY AT KHUF/KIND.
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.
STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TAKING OVER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS OFF TO THE
SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS THIS
EVENING WITH SOME FOG AS WELL. AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ON
N/NE WINDS LATE TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/DWM
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE STATE LINE
WESTWARD TO THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING...LIKELY WEAKENING WITH TIME. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
STRATIFORM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY SEVERELY
INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE INDY
METRO TODAY...LEAVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE MORE
LIKELY FOCUS FOR SEVERE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTH AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREAS OF OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS WHERE MORE SUN
APPEARS LIKELY. IN ANY CASE...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH THE MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS FLOOD THREAT. THIS THREAT WILL
RAPIDLY WANE THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA AND DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD WELL OUT OF THE REGION...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE
MIDST OF A CONSOLIDATION BUT ALSO A WEAKENING...AS LIGHTNING
COUNTS HAVE FALLEN DRAMATICALLY AND CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO
WARM STEADILY...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING VERY SOON IN
THE WEST/NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
STRATIFORM PRECIP IS LIKELY TO BE MORE PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD...ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE INDY METRO...THIS WILL SEVERELY
HAMPER DESTABILIZATION AND THUS REDUCE SEVERE THREAT TODAY...AND
SHIFTING OF FOCUS IN SPC DAY ONE TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
AND SOUTHWARD IS REASONABLE AND EXPECTED.
MAY SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY LATE MORNING AS INITIAL STORMS WANE
SOMEWHAT...AND THIS MAY ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AS
BREAKS OPEN IN THE CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INTENSIFIES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AMPLE IF NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...AND OVERALL INSTABILITY AGAIN AMPLE
IF NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...A DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL DOMINATE...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR STILL
REMAINS AT LEAST MODERATELY SUPPORTIVE AND A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
WHEN STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARILY DISCRETE AND MAY
ENCOUNTER BOTH THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND ENHANCED HELICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPEAR TO BE A BIT OVERDONE
COMPARED TO 00Z RAOBS...BUT EVEN TRUNCATING THESE VALUES A
BIT...STILL SHOULD SEE VALUES PUSHING 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL...OR
NEARING PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER CLIMATOLOGY.
THUS...COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 12-13KFT...FLOODING THREAT REMAINS HIGH ON THE LIST...AND
DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DOES INCLUDE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE EXCEEDENCE. FORTUNATELY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD AND SEVERE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
STORMS WILL QUICKLY BE EXITING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT THE AREA TO BE DRY BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
ON TEMPS...BLEND OF GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE WITH A FEW TWEAKS
UPWARD ON MAXES FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE RESIDES IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PULLS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION. MODEL VARIANCE DOES
EXIST REGARDING TIMING AND SPECIFIC TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN COMMITTING TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK AS THE WAVE DEPARTS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES.
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS EXTENDED
MODELS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND TIMING OF
WAVES ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ANY OF THESE UPPER WAVES LIKELY
TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONT
IS DRAWN BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE OF
THESE WAVES PASSES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE IMPACTS
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION...BUT SUSPECT FOCUS FOR RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WHERE AIRMASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. HRRR AGREES WITH
THIS THINKING AND HAVE TAILORED THE TAFS TOWARDS THIS IDEA. WILL
CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH GREATER
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE FELT AT KBMG AND POSSIBLY AT KHUF/KIND.
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.
STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TAKING OVER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS OFF TO THE
SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS THIS
EVENING WITH SOME FOG AS WELL. AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ON
N/NE WINDS LATE TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
100 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE U.S. 24 CORRIDOR
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH UPPER 60S NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING WITH ALL EYES ON
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAIN FOCUS REMAIN ON
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH STRATIFORM PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF THE
CONVECTION. GUTTED MSTR PROFILE WAS WELL SHOWN BY ILX AND DTX
SOUNDINGS WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR. LOOKING AT SFC OBS...SOME
INDICATIONS OF INCREASE IN LL MSTR BEGINNING WITH DEWPTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UP. RUC/HRRR/4 KM WRF ALL STILL POINTING TOWARDS A RAPID
INCREASE IN LL MSTR INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EVENTUALLY PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN INDIANA. LARGE PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH TO THE
I-80/90 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS AND APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST AT A
DECENT CLIP. LEADING EDGE WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AND WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO DO SO BUT ALL SIGNS STILL SEEM TO SUGGEST A WET
WEDS MORNING IN STORE FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE MI STATE LINE. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS FOR INCREASE IN POPS FURTHER NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AN INTERESTING SHORT TERM PERIOD TO CONTEND WITH. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
MOVED IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING AND DRY
AIR INTRUSION HAS LED TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER
40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HIRES
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DEGREE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WITH HRRR BEGINNING TO GRAB ONTO IT. THIS A CONCERN
FOR EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR OUR AREA. NAM12 HAS BEEN THROWN OUT GIVEN ITS
CONTINUED OUTLIER SOLUTION OF BEING FURTHER NORTH. BLEND OF OTHER
HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY USED.
RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
AND INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT...NEARING OUR WESTERN
BORDER AROUND SUNRISE. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH LOCATION AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON IT DEVELOPING AND HEADING
TOWARD INDIANA. WARM FRONT BOUNDARY TO SOUTH WILL TRY TO WORK NORTH
TONIGHT WITH STRONG THETA E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET. EXPECT 850-700MB INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT CONCERN GROWING
THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO WORK NORTH ESPECIALLY ONCE MCS
BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED AND SURFACE BASED. THIS SHOULD TAKE BULK OF
STRONGEST CONVECTION SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY RETARD NORTHERN MOVEMENT
OF WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA. HIRES MODELS TAKE MCV INTO INDIANA
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
AND ASSOCIATED HIGHEST QPF. CURRENT THINKING FAVORS SOUTHERN
SOLUTIONS WITH HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN HALF BUT STILL
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS NORTH. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER LOW IN THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN POOR TIMING AND LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT
IN FAR WEST ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IF SYSTEM IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH MCV AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN AFTERNOON. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WITH HIGH
THETA E AIR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES BUT
SPEED OF SYSTEM TO HELP LIMIT AMOUNTS. KEPT HEAVY RAIN MENTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTH AND AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA LOOKS BEST. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY WILL CREEP
NORTH BUT EXPECT OUTFLOWS AND MCV CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH TO KEEP
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WIND SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE NEAR THE WARM FRONT WITH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS WITH LARGE CURVING
HODOGRAPHS DEPICTED. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND A FEW MODELS
SHOWING FURTHER NORTH PLACEMENT...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SEVERE
IN HWO FOR NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE BEGINNING OF THIS
SYSTEM HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH A LARGE HAIL/CORE STORM THAT WAS
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
FAVOR THE 12Z 4KM NAM WHICH IS VERIFYING THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH REASONABLY WELL...BUT WAS SHOWING TOO MUCH
DEVELOPMENT TOO FAR NORTH IN THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THEREFORE...
WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST. THERE WAS STILL SOME VARIETY
AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM CONCERNING THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
CONSENSUS AMONG THESE MODELS INDICATES CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWERED LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TAFS WITH MESOSCALE EVOLUTION OF COMPLEX TO
THE WEST AND MOISTURE RETURN ALL KEY IN FLGT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDS. SEVERAL MODELS STILL SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN/FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH ARRIVAL AT KSBN POSSIBLY
EARLIER THAN CURRENT 13Z TIMING. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS
OVERNIGHT AND AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS COMPLEX DRAWS CLOSER. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ONCE THE RAIN DOES ARRIVE AND MAY
PERSIST MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NOT EXITING UNTIL
THE 3 TO 6Z WINDOW. WILL KEEP BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY/JT
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
945 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WESTERN HALF. RAP 0-500M RH IS
ELEVATED IN THESE SECTIONS. LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND MOIST
SOILS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST...SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATION FOG
FORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THE AIRMASS HAD DESTABILIZED COUPLED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING SHIFTING IT/S
FORCING INTO AND THEN QUICKLY EAST OF CENTRAL IOWA. EXPECT THE
AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL IOWA TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH. AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST THIS EVENING AND AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES...THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT
SHOULD INHIBIT NOCTURNAL STORMS TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY. HOWEVER...NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN PUBLIC FORECAST.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE TO IMPACT IOWA INTO FRIDAY. STILL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AND APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING NOT REAL STRAIGHT FORWARD DUE
TO SEVERAL NEGATIVE FACTORS INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH PWATS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. RESIDUAL DRIER AIR FROM THE
DEPARTING HIGH SHOULD LINGER INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND MORE FOCUSED OVER TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGRESSIVELY ZONAL WITH SUB
TROPICAL HIGH MOVING NORTH INTO THE SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ALSO
BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THAT AREA. HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY
THOUGH DIMINISHED THEM A BIT WITH THE OVERALL TRENDS FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN POPS MAY VERY WELL BE EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTH THEN POSSIBLE INITIATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHERN CANADA UPPER LOW WILL BE DICTATING THE UPPER FLOW AS
IT MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY THIS LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE
MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH A RETURN TO SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...06/00Z
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS IA THIS
EVENING...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTS IFR OR LOWER AT SEVERAL
SITES...BUT CROSSOVER TEMPS AND RECENT HISTORY SUGGEST THIS IS
OVERDONE. HAVE MENTIONED MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CATEGORIES INCREASES. WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL KS EAST ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHERN IL TO A LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AT
19Z. A WEAK TROUGH AND LAKE ENHANCED BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TRAILED
W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL IL THROUGH EASTERN IA INTO FAR SE MN. ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WERE KEEPING
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WAS ALSO TRIGGERING A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER...DRIER AIR OVER NW IL INTO EAST CENTRAL IA...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER SE IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL IL. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...WHICH WAS HELPING BUILD A 1014 MB
SURFACE HIGH DOWNSTREAM OVER UPPER MI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FOCUS AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TONIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDES EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE WEAK
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL LEND
A MORE UNIFORM E-NE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND FAVORING CLEARING SKIES. LOW LEVEL RH
FIELDS IN 18Z RAP MODEL...WHICH HAD A DECENT DEPICTION OF CLOUD
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...ADVERTISES THIS CLEARING TAKING
PLACE FROM NE TO SW...WITH SE IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL IL POSSIBLY
HANGING ON TO CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER. WITH
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CLEARING EARLIEST AND LIKELY TO SEE
DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...HAVE MINS THERE
RANGING FROM 49 AT FREEPORT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S NORTH OF I-80.
LATER CLEARING AND HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN WILL HOLD
AREAS TO THE SOUTH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR
ON LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANY FOG
POTENTIAL BELOW THRESHOLDS WORTH MENTIONING...BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.
THURSDAY...THE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.
GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOOKED REASONABLE AND WERE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DEPICT TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY WITH ONE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND THE OTHER TO THE SOUTH OF
EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS AND WILL LEAVE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
A LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WE ENJOY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING. AS
THE RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH... MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CONTINUED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND THUS HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WHICH SPLITS THIS ENERGY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE WOULD MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA
WHILE THE SECOND DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
AND WOULD LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE GFS
AND LEAVE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
WIDESPREAD STRATUS LINGERING BEHIND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAKUP OVER EASTERN
IA AND NW IL THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO CID AND MLI
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 00Z...WHILE THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR BRL TO
LOWER BACK INTO MVFR FOR A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. IF WINDS BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO FOG...AND
THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES
AT CID AND DBQ.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
815 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS INCREASING CINH AND DECREASING
INSTABILITY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THEREFORE...IN COLLABORATION
WITH SPC AND WFO BOULDER...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR YUMA COUNTY COLORADO. ENVIRONMENT STILL
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WELL LET THE WATCH CONTINUE IN
THESE LOCATIONS.
ALONG WITH THE CHANGE TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...COMPLETED
A FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ADDED A MENTION OF FOG IN
THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AND A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED.
IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS TONIGHT. STILL WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE STORMS BETWEEN DENVER AND COLORADO SPRINGS. STORM MOTIONS AND
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL INDICATE THIS SMALL MCS WOULD
MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER EAST COLORADO...GRAZING KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES BEFORE WEAKENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW MOVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO AN AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY...INCREASING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THIS
EVENING...MAKING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN AREA OF STORM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE COLORADO COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FOG IN THE WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE APEX OF THE
WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.
THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY EVENING.
MORE FORCING OCCURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY BUT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS WELL TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
WEAK WAVE SUNDAY BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL COME LATE SUNDAY WITH A
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING. CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO
2000 J/KG FRIDAY EVENING. CAPE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. CAPE ON SATURDAY WILL BE LOW WITH ONLY 100
TO 400 J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. SHEAR VALUES WILL REACH 35KTS IN
THE SOUTHERN FA FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
1.15 TO 1.43 FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. STORM
MOVEMENT FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SLOW WITH H7 WINDS FROM 5 TO 10KTS.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRONGEST
PARAMETERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DROP
OFF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY IN THE
SOUTHERN FA. DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING. POPS WILL BE HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT DECREASING
TO CHANCE SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL INCREASE SOME IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT TROUGH MOVES CLOSE TO THE AREA.
MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
MUCH COOLER READINGS FROM 50 TO 55 CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER AS WELL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM 67 IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 70S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE, ALTHOUGH FLATTENED, WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. HIGH POPS ARE ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND FORCING. HIGH PRESSURE AND RESULTING
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S WARMING TO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM FROM THE MID 70S MONDAY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TAFS WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE. TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER EAST COLORADO AND DENVER METRO MAY APPROACH KGLD
THIS EVENING. WENT WITH VCTS MENTION AND WILL AMEND ONCE STORMS
APPROACH. DUE TO LACK OF DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...REMOVED MENTION OF TS FROM KMCK. STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SO MAINTAINED MENTION FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLE. WITH THICK CONVECTIVE CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA...
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH FOR NEEDED FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ANTICIPATED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL REFRAIN FROM PLACING IN TAF TO
FOCUS ON NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE AND FOG/STRATUS TRENDS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
...Updated for the aviation forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
The main focus for this afternoon and evenings forecast is again for
chances of severe convection. One big negative for convective
development this afternoon is a warming mid level. Of the convective
allowing models a couple allow no storms across southwest Kansas
while the NMMs, 4 km NAM and the HRRR all support some type of
brief, mainly isolated supercell development coming out of eastern
Colorado near the dryline and sweeping east into west central KS.
Sufficient shear and MUCAPE combinations are in place to support a
brief window of severe threat including large hail (golf balls to
tennis balls in most instances) as well as damaging supercell RFD
winds. Any severe threat is likely confined to locations west of
highway 83 and is low to begin with given the trouble storms will
have gaining large depth.
Wind advisory conditions will persist through sunset before the
surface heating ceases. Some of the warmest overnight temperature of
the season will be experienced tonight and early tomorrow especially
across south central Kansas. The surface cold front will push though
the area by noon on Wednesday providing northeasterly upslope
surface flow. Models at this time are not indicating any additional
convection, at least during the daytime hours on Wednesday. The
model consensus for highs Wednesday range from upper 80s north to
upper 90s south and west.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A convectively active period awaits midweek through the weekend as
southwestern Kansas finds itself in a favorable west-southwest flow
regime with a mean upper tropospheric jet extending from southern
California to central Kansas. A cold front will push south late
tonight into early Wednesday before stalling out just to our south
across the northern Panhandles/far northwest Oklahoma. A few
surface-based storms may form across Barber County late afternoon
Wednesday, however a very warm middle troposphere will likely
prevent surface based convection. Things will change quite a bit
overnight Wednesday night as the 850-700mb layer becomes very warm
frontogenetic as a weak upper level disturbance ripples
east-northeast through the pattern. The warm frontogenetic forcing
for ascent will be quite strong during the 06-12Z Thursday time
frame. Ample moisture in this frontogenetic layer will contribute to
upwards of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE during the overnight hours. All the
reliable global mesoscale models at this time frame are bullish on
nocturnal convective development...and fairly vigorous at
that...especially north of a Garden City to Dodge City to Pratt
line. 2-7km AGL deep layer shear in combination with the
aforementioned 2000 CAPE will be more than favorable for elevated
severe storms capable of very large hail perhaps to two inches in
diameter. A heavy rain threat will also exist as storms would likely
form in a northwest to south east orientation with some individual
convective cell training a distinct possibility.
Everywhere we have 50 or greater POP we will amend the thunderstorm
forecast with Large Hail and Heavy Rain. This will be mesoscale
convective system (MCS) Number One. The overall pattern will remain
unchanged, and the setup for another MCS (Number Two) will likely
take place across the southern half of the DDC forecast area
(along/south of the Arkansas River) in a renewed zone of 850-700mb
warm frontogenesis. MCS Number Two would likely move off into south
central KS and/or northern Oklahoma by daybreak Friday with some
recovery taking place through the day Friday. The surface front will
likely remain just south of the Kansas-Oklahoma border with
post-frontal upslope convection likely to form across eastern
Colorado late in the day Friday. Some of this diurnal activity may
spread into far west-central/southwest Kansas by early Friday
evening as MCS Number Three. What seems more likely is that
nocturnal MCS Number Three will materialize after sunset Friday as
yet another minor disturbance moves northeast through the pattern
across the Central Plains. Eventually, a final, stronger shortwave
trough will eject out into the Central Plains by late in the weekend
and surface-based storms may impact southwestern Kansas. By Saturday
and Sunday, though, the details become increasingly sketchy as the
result of MCS Number Three may place the effective front too far
south for MCS Number Four to impact southwestern Kansas.
The bottom line is that a wet period is in store and much of the
southwest Kansas region will see in excess of an inch of rain before
all is said and done. There will likely be some areas of the
southwest Kansas region that see MUCH more than that...especially of
successive MCS`s track over the same general areas of our region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
Clear skies, good visibility, and VFR conditions will start this
TAF period. Winds will be a little breezy at KHYS for a few more
hours. Winds will shift north toward sunrise in the 12 knot
range, and then shift northeast around mid day and blow at
13g23kt. Some high clouds will filter in around mid day as well.
Beyond this 05/06z time frame, there may be some strong to severe
storms form late Wednesday night, mainly in KHYS and KDDC Taf sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 84 63 82 / 50 40 60 50
GCK 61 82 62 82 / 50 40 40 40
EHA 61 85 62 86 / 20 20 40 40
LBL 63 87 64 87 / 30 20 50 40
HYS 60 81 62 80 / 50 50 30 40
P28 66 86 67 86 / 60 50 60 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
732 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The main focus for the short term portion of the forecast package
is on precipitation chances across the southern and southwestern
portion of the forecast area through Friday night.
Keeping an eye on the diminishing precipitation shield north of the
convective band currently pushing east southeast through southeast
Missouri and northeast Arkansas. Not currently expecting that area
of rainfall to make it into our southwest counties, and the HRRR as
well as the RAP depict a similar scenario. However, it does bear
some watching.
Upper level ridging over the south-central portion of the U.S. will
be in place for much of the period. A series of upper waves is
progged to ride the top of the ridge into the Ohio Valley, the first
of which arrives tonight into Friday. The ECMWF and NAM bring the
effects of the wave into the southwest corner of the forecast area
in the way of increased precipitation chances, while the GFS leaves
the entire region dry until the next wave arrives during the
long-term portion of the forecast on Saturday afternoon/evening.
Decided to keep pops from previous forecast remaining in the
slight/low chance pop category. Near normal temperatures are
expected in most areas with highs in the low to middle 80s and lows
ranging 5 degrees either side of 60.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Upper ridging remains located over the south-central portion of
the U.S. to begin the long term period. This will continue with a
series of upper waves to traverse the top of the ridge into the
Ohio River Valley. A higher amplitude trough will approach the
forecast area to begin the work week on Monday as the trough digs
into the Mississippi River Valley. ECMWF and GFS are in fairly
good agreement with this feature, leading to a fairly active
extended timeframe.
Stuck close to regional initialization for POPs...with the highest
POPs on Saturday night and Sunday as the first of many upper
troughs push through the area. Expect shower and thunderstorm
chances to persist through mid-week as the remainder of the upper
disturbances move through the area. Below normal highs with near
normal lows look to be the rule as we head into this unsettled
portion of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
High pressure over the Great Lakes will send dry northeast surface
breezes into the Ohio Valley, keeping SDF and LEX weather VFR
through the period.
BWG is much more of a question mark. MCS activity from earlier today
is continuing to move to the southeast and will not affect the
airport. Additional MCS development is expected to our west this
evening, but it too should pass by to the southwest (though not by
much). Unfortunately there is significant model disagreement on
whether or not low ceilings and fog may develop during the pre-dawn
hours. There is indeed an area of low clouds, based around two
thousand feet, over southeast Missouri at this time. While those
clouds are not advecting in, they do reveal an area of low level
moisture that could expand enough to affect BWG. MOS guidance is
hitting low cigs and vsbys pretty hard. However, the often reliable
HRRR and RAP are indicating no restrictions. For now will go with a
TEMPO group for MVFR cigs/vsbys for a few hours around dawn since
there is some low level moisture out there and BWG does develop BR
easily. Confidence is not especially high, though.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........MRD (IND)
Long Term.........MRD (IND)
Aviation..........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
Overall, the forecast is in pretty good shape. Only made minor
updates through the late afternoon and early evening hours to
account for the showers and thunderstorms that developed. Coverage
has decreased to isolated, so have adjusted PoPs as such. Latest
trends in guidance keeps these isolated showers and storms going for
just a little longer before we dry out for a few hours around and
after midnight. Have mirrored this trend as well. As mentioned in
the short-term section and noticeable in some of the models (not
all), additional scattered convection may develop along and near a
boundary situated out ahead of a strong MCS currently diving
southeast through southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Any
convective development in the pre-dawn hours should be concentrated
across southern Indiana and stretch southeastward into the Bluegrass
region of Kentucky.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
But first we have to deal with scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. We have an axis of higher moisture allowing
storms to fire off over southern Indiana so far today. This axis
will shift into the Ohio River Valley the rest of the afternoon
hours and allow for the storms to develop down here. The NAM
stability parameter for these storms seems too high, with it giving
us a higher threat for damaging winds and even hail in these storms.
The RUC looks a little closer to reality. This model indicates gusts
could get up to the 45-50 mph range in stronger downbursts.
Activity should wind down later this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. However, a frontal boundary will stall out
somewhere in the northeast half of our forecast area overnight,
providing a focus for new development toward daybreak Wednesday. In
addition, a potent MCS, developing at this time over NE/SD will rush
southeastward overnight. Will have to monitor how quickly this
system pushes towards us as it will play a key part in how our
severe weather threat pans out the rest of the day Wednesday.
With this forecast package we are still assuming a couple of rounds
of storms possible during the day Wednesday. The first with the
above front should taper off by late morning. A few models develop
new thunderstorms along this boundary even during the late morning
and early afternoon hours, which is not out of the question given
the moist airmass in place and boundaries running around. However,
still think the threat for severe will be highest should we get a
longer pause and consequent destabilization. Still looking at
discrete convection at the onset, which could lead to isolated
tornadoes over southern Indiana at first. Then as a line starts to
merge from these cells, we would see damaging winds take over as the
main threat, especially as model DCAPEs are well into the 1000s.
Timing this threat into the rest of Kentucky is a little more
difficult as we have to see how the line organizes. It should push
southeastward, but perhaps force new convection off to the west of
the line. The 4 km NAM blasts a long east/west line through our
whole forecast area in the evening, which would neutralize any
further threat for severe weather. However the 12km NAM has a
somewhat similar setup to what we had two Wednesdays ago, with
storms first firing over southern Indiana, pushing southeast and
then additional development west of the line. That scenario would
keep the threat for severe weather well into the night, as well as
the potential for flooding rains in areas that get more than one
round of storms.
The actual front looks to move into the region early Thursday,
bringing an end to precip along with drier and cooler air. Have lows
Thursday morning ranging from the upper 50s in southern Indiana to
around 70 in south central Kentucky. Highs Wednesday of course will
depend on the cloud cover, but for now have readings similar to
today, though south central Kentucky taking longer to cloud over
should get them at least into the upper 80s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
The cold front will continue to move southward Thursday, sinking
south of the KY/TN border by mid day. Some showers or thunderstorms
will persist across south central KY in the morning hours before the
drier air work in during the afternoon. Dry conditions are then
expected Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the north.
Another wave riding along the frontal boundary may spread a few
showers into the southwestern portion of southern KY Friday, but
most of the region should remain dry through Friday night.
Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday with highs only reaching
into the mid to upper 70s. Lows will dip down into the mid to upper
50s. Friday will see a bit of warming with highs back into the lower
80s.
A warm front will then move back to the north across the area
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop as moisture surges back in, with the better chance for
storms Saturday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
Sunday into Sunday night ahead of the cold front. There is still a
bit of disagreement in the models as to how fast the cold front
moves through, but it should clear the area by mid day Monday and
high pressure will build in once again. We should then see dry
conditions through Tuesday. High temperatures will be back into the
mid 80s Saturday and Sunday. Behind the front Monday`s highs will
drop back into the upper 70s to around 80.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Washed out frontal boundary looks to remain situated from roughly
KMCI to KCRW overnight. Within a weak low-level WAA scheme, we`re
likely to see isolated-scattered convection develop along this
boundary overnight. Already seeing this activity trying to get
started out to the east between KFFT and KLEX. For now plan on
going with VCTS at KLEX during the pre-dawn hours. Additional
convection may develop further west out toward the KSDF area by
04/09Z thus will maintain the previous VCTS through roughly
04/14Z...though will monitor trends later this morning and may be
able to trim those ending times back. KBWG looks to remain quiet
overnight with VFR conditions. A light southwest wind of 3-7kts is
expected overnight.
After 04/14Z dry and VFR conditions look to be the rule across the
terminals. We should see surface winds pick up out of the southwest
with sustained speeds of 10-12kts and gusts up in the 19-22kt
range. Additional thunderstorm activity is projected to develop
along a residual cold pool/outflow boundary from the ongoing MCS
moving through northern MO and eventually into IL/IN. Confidence
remains high enough to warrant VCTS after 04/20Z at KSDF and KLEX.
Model proximity soundings suggest a stronger cap holding at KBWG
keeping convection to a minimum. However, a line of convection may
develop and surge southward toward southern KY after 04/00Z. Will
time to fine tune these forecast elements after a full evaluation of
the 04/00Z guidance suite.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........MJP
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1240 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWING ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM NEAR ESTCOURT TO WEST
OF BANGOR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE SEEN ONE
LIGHTNING STRIKE OFF THE SOUTH MAINE COAST, SO CAN`T RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST AS ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE.
THE 07Z SATELLITE IMAGERY FORM THE GOES-E IFR PROBABILITY SHOWED
STRATUS SPREADING TO THE NORTH W/HUL TO KBHB SEEING CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST HAD SOME
FOG AS WELL. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP AND NAM THIS
MORNING PER THE SOUNDINGS. THE SREF WAS A BIT SLOW ON THE DRAW
W/BRINGING THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE INTO NE MAINE THIS MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE W/BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY W/SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS EVIDENT FROM THE OBS AND SATELLITE. THE RAP ALONG
W/THE NAM DOES SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON W/THE WESTERN AREAS SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES E. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP
SHOWED THE RAINFALL SHRINKING UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER AIR
FURTHER TO THE E AND THIS IS SHOWN WELL ON THE SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS TO BACK UP THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS TIL THE AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE W AND SW AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE THE LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIP.
AN AREA OF STEADIER RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A TROF AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SWING ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE
LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT THE RAINFALL. DECIDED TO BRING 60%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST. ADDED FOG FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND THE COAST W/A CONTINUED SSE FLOW IN THE
LLVLS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS(QPF) BASED ON THE
LATEST 6HRLY REPORTS SHOWING LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. THEREFORE, QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
AVERAGE OF 0.5 TO .25" AREAL WIDE W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE W AND NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE LATE FRIDAY. FOR POPS WILL BLEND THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS GENERATED FROM THE
MOSG25. HAVE USED THE SUPPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
QPF FROM A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY THEN MOVE EAST
LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT PASSING
TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE SUPPER BLEND TO
POPULATE ALL GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO SPREAD ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING W/DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE A BIT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CIGS WILL DROP BACK TO IFR TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS W/THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF THIS TAKING SHAPE FROM KHUL SOUTHWARD INTO KBGR
AND KBHB.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. AN EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES OVER
THE WATERS W/A 10-11 SECOND PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
FORECAST OF 2-4 FOOT SWELLS AND WINDS SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT.
FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT. VBSYS ARE
ALREADY 1NM OR LESS AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
GIVEN THE LATEST SETUP W/A SSE FLOW.
SHORT TERM: WILL USE THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPPER BLEND WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT EASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY.
A NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE MARITIMES. LONG PERIOD WAVES
FROM THIS FETCH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
TO MAXIMUM OF 6 FEET/9-10 SECONDS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE
SYSTEM WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY. FOR WAVES
WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WNA/4.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
922 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWING ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THINGS ARE RUNNING A BIT
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BRING
THEM MORE INTO ALIGNMENT WITH CURRENT RADAR. WHILE THE DRIZZLE AND
FOG HAVE LIFTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MAINE, WEB CAMS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE IT REMAINS ACROSS DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE.
THE 07Z SATELLITE IMAGERY FORM THE GOES-E IFR PROBABILITY SHOWED
STRATUS SPREADING TO THE NORTH W/HUL TO KBHB SEEING CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST HAD SOME
FOG AS WELL. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP AND NAM THIS
MORNING PER THE SOUNDINGS. THE SREF WAS A BIT SLOW ON THE DRAW
W/BRINGING THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE INTO NE MAINE THIS MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE W/BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY W/SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS EVIDENT FROM THE OBS AND SATELLITE. THE RAP ALONG
W/THE NAM DOES SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON W/THE WESTERN AREAS SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES E. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP
SHOWED THE RAINFALL SHRINKING UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER AIR
FURTHER TO THE E AND THIS IS SHOWN WELL ON THE SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS TO BACK UP THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS TIL THE AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE W AND SW AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE THE LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIP.
AN AREA OF STEADIER RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A TROF AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SWING ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE
LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT THE RAINFALL. DECIDED TO BRING 60%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST. ADDED FOG FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND THE COAST W/A CONTINUED SSE FLOW IN THE
LLVLS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS(QPF) BASED ON THE
LATEST 6HRLY REPORTS SHOWING LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. THEREFORE, QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
AVERAGE OF 0.5 TO .25" AREAL WIDE W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE W AND NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE LATE FRIDAY. FOR POPS WILL BLEND THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS GENERATED FROM THE
MOSG25. HAVE USED THE SUPPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
QPF FROM A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY THEN MOVE EAST
LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT PASSING
TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE SUPPER BLEND TO
POPULATE ALL GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO SPREAD ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING W/DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE A BIT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CIGS WILL DROP BACK TO IFR TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS W/THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF THIS TAKING SHAPE FROM KHUL SOUTHWARD INTO KBGR
AND KBHB.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. AN EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES OVER
THE WATERS W/A 10-11 SECOND PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
FORECAST OF 2-4 FOOT SWELLS AND WINDS SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT.
FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT. VBSYS ARE
ALREADY 1NM OR LESS AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
GIVEN THE LATEST SETUP W/A SSE FLOW.
SHORT TERM: WILL USE THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPPER BLEND WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT EASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY.
A NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE MARITIMES. LONG PERIOD WAVES
FROM THIS FETCH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
TO MAXIMUM OF 6 FEET/9-10 SECONDS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE
SYSTEM WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY. FOR WAVES
WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WNA/4.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
633 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWING ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: INCREASED THE RAINFALL CHANCES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS
AND WEBCAMS SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN BAR HARBOR AND
THE BANGOR REGION AS WELL AS WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SE AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. THIS AREA WAS MOVING NNE. KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG W/FOG AND SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO FIT THE LATEST OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE.
THE 07Z SATELLITE IMAGERY FORM THE GOES-E IFR PROBABILITY SHOWED
STRATUS SPREADING TO THE NORTH W/HUL TO KBHB SEEING CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST HAD SOME
FOG AS WELL. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP AND NAM THIS
MORNING PER THE SOUNDINGS. THE SREF WAS A BIT SLOW ON THE DRAW
W/BRINGING THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE INTO NE MAINE THIS MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE W/BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY W/SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS EVIDENT FROM THE OBS AND SATELLITE. THE RAP ALONG
W/THE NAM DOES SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON W/THE WESTERN AREAS SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES E. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP
SHOWED THE RAINFALL SHRINKING UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER AIR
FURTHER TO THE E AND THIS IS SHOWN WELL ON THE SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS TO BACK UP THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS TIL THE AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE W AND SW AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE THE LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIP.
AN AREA OF STEADIER RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A TROF AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SWING ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE
LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT THE RAINFALL. DECIDED TO BRING 60%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST. ADDED FOG FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND THE COAST W/A CONTINUED SSE FLOW IN THE
LLVLS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS(QPF) BASED ON THE
LATEST 6HRLY REPORTS SHOWING LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. THEREFORE, QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
AVERAGE OF 0.5 TO .25" AREAL WIDE W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE W AND NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE LATE FRIDAY. FOR POPS WILL BLEND THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS GENERATED FROM THE
MOSG25. HAVE USED THE SUPPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
QPF FROM A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY THEN MOVE EAST
LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT PASSING
TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE SUPPER BLEND TO
POPULATE ALL GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO SPREAD ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING W/DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE A BIT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CIGS WILL DROP BACK TO IFR TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS W/THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF THIS TAKING SHAPE FROM KHUL SOUTHWARD INTO KBGR
AND KBHB.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. AN EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES OVER
THE WATERS W/A 10-11 SECOND PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
FORECAST OF 2-4 FOOT SWELLS AND WINDS SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT.
FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT. VBSYS ARE
ALREADY 1NM OR LESS AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
GIVEN THE LATEST SETUP W/A SSE FLOW.
SHORT TERM: WILL USE THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPPER BLEND WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT EASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY.
A NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE MARITIMES. LONG PERIOD WAVES
FROM THIS FETCH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
TO MAXIMUM OF 6 FEET/9-10 SECONDS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE
SYSTEM WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY. FOR WAVES
WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WNA/4.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
421 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWING ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND DRIZZLE.
THE 07Z SATELLITE IMAGERY FORM THE GOES-E IFR PROBABILITY SHOWED
STRATUS SPREADING TO THE NORTH W/HUL TO KBHB SEEING CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST HAD SOME
FOG AS WELL. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP AND NAM THIS
MORNING PER THE SOUNDINGS. THE SREF WAS A BIT SLOW ON THE DRAW
W/BRINGING THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE INTO NE MAINE THIS MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE W/BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY W/SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS EVIDENT FROM THE OBS AND SATELLITE. THE RAP ALONG
W/THE NAM DOES SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON W/THE WESTERN AREAS SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES E. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP
SHOWED THE RAINFALL SHRINKING UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER AIR
FURTHER TO THE E AND THIS IS SHOWN WELL ON THE SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS TO BACK UP THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS TIL THE AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE W AND SW AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE THE LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIP.
AN AREA OF STEADIER RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A TROF AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SWING ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE
LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT THE RAINFALL. DECIDED TO BRING 60%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST. ADDED FOG FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND THE COAST W/A CONTINUED SSE FLOW IN THE
LLVLS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS(QPF) BASED ON THE
LATEST 6HRLY REPORTS SHOWING LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. THEREFORE, QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
AVERAGE OF 0.5 TO .25" AREAL WIDE W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE W AND NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE LATE FRIDAY. FOR POPS WILL BLEND THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS GENERATED FROM THE
MOSG25. HAVE USED THE SUPPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
QPF FROM A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY THEN MOVE EAST
LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT PASSING
TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE SUPPER BLEND TO
POPULATE ALL GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO SPREAD ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING W/DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE A BIT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CIGS WILL DROP BACK TO IFR TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS W/THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF THIS TAKING SHAPE FROM KHUL SOUTHWARD INTO KBGR
AND KBHB.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. AN EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES OVER
THE WATERS W/A 10-11 SECOND PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
FORECAST OF 2-4 FOOT SWELLS AND WINDS SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT.
FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT. VBSYS ARE
ALREADY 1NM OR LESS AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
GIVEN THE LATEST SETUP W/A SSE FLOW.
SHORT TERM: WILL USE THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPPER BLEND WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT EASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY.
A NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE MARITIMES. LONG PERIOD WAVES
FROM THIS FETCH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
TO MAXIMUM OF 6 FEET/9-10 SECONDS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE
SYSTEM WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY. FOR WAVES
WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WNA/4.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
119 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
120 AM UPDATE: FOLLOWING THE GOES-E IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY,
DECIDED TO INCREASE THE STRATUS FURTHER N AND E AND INCLUDED AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL. THE 03 SREF COMING IN HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
STRATUS AND FOG. LAPS SOUNDINGS AIDED BY THE 03Z RAP SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE IN THE DOWNEAST AND COAST UP INTO NE MAINE
THIS MORNING AND CARRIED THAT WORDING AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH UP W/THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: ON WED...ANY SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR W WILL TAKE
THEIR TIME TRAVERSING INTO CNTRL AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF BLOCKING IN THE N ATLC. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
DISSIPATION OF LOW CLDNSS... SPCLY NRN AND INLAND PTNS OF THE E
PTN OF THE FA...WITH SOME MIDDAY FILTERED SUNSHINE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SHWRS ADVC ON TOWARD THE ERN ME/NB BORDER BY WED EVE. WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF FILTERED SUN... WE DID RAISE HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEG OVR THE NE. QPF AMOUNTS WED AND SPCLY WED AFTN WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH CNVCTN ACCOMPANIES THE COLD FRONTAL SHWR BAND...BUT MOST
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH AT ALL IN THE WAY OF AFTN FCST CAPE...SO
WE LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR WED FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A DIEING FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT FALLS APART
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS.
INTERESTING SETUP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOST MODELS DEVELOP SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND
TRACK IT TO ROUGHLY NOVA SCOTIA EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, STILL QUITE
A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS TO THE BAY OF FUNDY, THE WHOLE AREA COULD GET QUITE THE
SOAKER, BUT IF IT TRACKS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, DOWNEAST WOULD GET
THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN WITH JUST LIGHT SHOWERS UP NORTH.
WENT WITH A COMPROMISE APPROACH, NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, WHICH ENTAILS LIKELY POPS FOR MOST
AREAS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THINGS DRY
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS SLOWLY DEPART THE FORECAST AREA AND A WELL-
DEFINED...ALBEIT SHORT-LIVED...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER
RIDGE TAKES HOLD AND SUNDAY PANS OUT TO BE SUNNY...WARM...AND DRY.
MONDAY SHOULD BEGIN AS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY BUT THE NEXT SURFACE
FRONT AND UPPER TROF BEGIN TO ENCROACH AND PUSH THE RIDGE EAST
WITH SHOWERS...POSSIBLE TS...MOVING IN BY MID-DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
MODERATED SOMEWHAT DURING RAIN EVENTS BUT OTHERWISE THE REGION
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS AND THEN CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR AND IFR. IFR ALREADY DOWN ACROSS KBGR KBHB. SOME RECOVERY TO
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING
TIL ERLY AFTN.
SHORT TERM: MVFR LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR FOR DOWNEAST. IFR EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED WITH FCST WINDS AND WV HTS XPCTD
TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA TNGT AND WED. WE USED A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL AND MODEL-MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS...AND WENT A LITTLE BLO WW3
WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD FROM AROUND 4 FEET ON THURSDAY TO
AROUND 6 FEET ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE WATERS. KEPT WINDS JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR NOW,
BUT THESE WINDS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
LOW TRACK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
735 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF UPPER MI THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SD/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THERE WAS SOME DISRUPTION TO
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH FROM MCC ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WAS EVIDENT BY GRAVITY WAVES SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...THE 12Z SUITE
OF MODELS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...SO CONCERNS ABOUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ARE MINIMAL.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH HAS INDUCED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NW WI AND FAR WEST UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THIS EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HANDLED PRECIP PATTERNS WELL OVER
THE LAST 18 HOURS...SO HAVE USED IT TO NARROW IN ON REGIONS OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THE RAP CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST ON SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS HOUGHTON AND AS FAR EAST
AS IMT AND ISHPEMING THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE NE...THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR AND DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
LAGGING 850 HPA TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CLEARING BEHIND THE H5 TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE H8 TROUGH STALLING AND
KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA...SO
CONTINUED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE HEATING
AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA...MORE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR CWA. WEAK S TO SW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE BREEZES
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...AND ALSO KEEP A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
FRI NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTING
FROM NRN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA NEAR
THE WI BORDER IN THE EVENING...A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND 700-500 MB QVECTOR
CONV INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
250-300 MB JET THAT SLIDES FROM NW ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES BAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI FOR
SOME TSRA...PER MODEL MUCAPE VALUES. HOWEVER...THUNDER IS LESS
LIKELY IN WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SUPPORTED BY 850-700 MB FGEN THAT IS
EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH POPS TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. INCREASING MID CLOUDS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR AS PWAT VALUES
CLIMB FROM NEAR 0.25 INCH TO 0.50 INCH.
MON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PCPN CHANCES GIVEN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DRY GFS/GEM AND WET ECMWF WHICH BRINGS A
STRONGER AND MORE PHASED MID LEVEL TROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS. FOR
NOW...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE(CONSENSUS) POPS WERE INCLUDED.
TUE-THU...A DRY PERIOD IS MORE LIKELY FROM TUE INTO WED AS RIDGING
AGAIN TAKES OVER. A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THU
BRINGS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND
RETURN OF MOISTURE THAT COULD BRING PCPN TO THE AREA. MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT
INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE AT KIWD
AROUND SUNRISE AS RIBBON OF LWR CIGS OVER MN MAY PERSIST AS IT
DRIFTS E. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE
RULE ALONG WITH SCT SHRA AS MID LEVEL TROF SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. LAKE BREEZES WILL THEN PROVIDE A TRIGGER
FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA FRI AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER LOWER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERAL S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
431 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT NW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS INTO
NW ONTARIO. UPSTREAM...A TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH MONTANA.
AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH PROMINENT
LAKE BREEZES. DIURNAL CU HAD DEVELOP WELL INLAND ALONG THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE DIURNAL CU FADE...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY
MOVE THROUGH THE E HALF OF UPPER MI...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
NAM/GFS 500-300 MB RH FCST. OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN TO 0.35 TO
0.50 INCH. EXPECT MIN READINGS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY AROUND 40 INLAND. SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
FROM WATERSMEET TO IRON RIVER...AMASA AND REPUBLIC MAY SEE READINGS
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND THAT A WEAK SHRTWV MAY MOVE INTO W UPPER MI BY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FAR WEST TO PUSH ML DEWPOINTS INTO
THE LOWER 50S WITH RESULTING MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 400-800 J/KG
RANGE. SO...SOME SOME SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE REST
OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MILD/DRY DAY WITH INLAND TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE LAKE BREEZES KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM IS EXPECTED WITH JUST A COUPLE CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES TRACKS ENE BEFORE GRADUALLY
STALLING OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD...A COUPLE
SUBTLE FEATURES COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
HEATING SUPPORT. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.
THEN...A DECAYING SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...AND WITH RATHER DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO MUCH OF THE
COLUMN...LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. BEST MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 100KT UPPER
JET TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS REACHES THE WESTERN CWA. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A BIT
IN QUESTION AS MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY
LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL ACROSS THE AREA...SO ONLY MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END
TO RAIN AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
WEST HALF SHOULD END UP WITH FAIRLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH PWAT VALUES AS LOW OF 0.3 INCH ACROSS THE WEST
HALF...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWERED TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FROST...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT
TO HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LOWER TEMPS ANY FARTHER ATTM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY AND KEEP
CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO ONLY SOME
INCREASED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THEN...A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOOKS TO BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. LAKE BREEZES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN REDEVELOP
THURSDAY AT CMX AND SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
AND GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THU. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SE
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND SAT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SRLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN NRLY WINDS. HIGH PRES WILL AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY. OVERALL...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW 20KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT NW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS INTO
NW ONTARIO. UPSTREAM...A TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH MONTANA.
AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH PROMINENT
LAKE BREEZES. DIURNAL CU HAD DEVELOP WELL INLAND ALONG THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE DIURNAL CU FADE...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY
MOVE THROUGH THE E HALF OF UPPER MI...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
NAM/GFS 500-300 MB RH FCST. OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN TO 0.35 TO
0.50 INCH. EXPECT MIN READINGS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY AROUND 40 INLAND. SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
FROM WATERSMEET TO IRON RIVER...AMASA AND REPUBLIC MAY SEE READINGS
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND THAT A WEAK SHRTWV MAY MOVE INTO W UPPER MI BY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FAR WEST TO PUSH ML DEWPOINTS INTO
THE LOWER 50S WITH RESULTING MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 400-800 J/KG
RANGE. SO...SOME SOME SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE REST
OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MILD/DRY DAY WITH INLAND TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE LAKE BREEZES KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HUDSON BAY
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL EARLY ON MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
DEWPOINTS GIVEN PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. EXPECT
MIN RH/S NEAR 25 PCT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UPPER MI ON THU AND BTWN 25 TO 30 PCT ON FRIDAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
BOTH DAYS WILL LIMIT FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DESPITE THE DRY RH/S.
MODELS THEN SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DRIVING NE THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA THU INTO FRI WHILE FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY BY
SAT AND FLATTENING THE MID-UPR LVL RDG AXIS OVER THE REGION WHILE
PUSHING IT EAST OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO UPPER MI AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY FAR WEST...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PCPN FOR THE MOST PART TO BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS THE
GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND FORCING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY WEAK. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH
ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WILL MOVE THE MID-LVL TROF AXIS THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE PUSHING THE COLD FRONT AND ANY
REMAINING SHRA WELL TO THE EAST BY LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY ON MON BUT
FORCING STAYS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP OUR FCST AREA DRY. 00Z MODELS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS PREV RUNS WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM SCNTRL CANADA...SHOWING MUCH OF ITS ENERGY BEING DEFLECTED NORTH
BY BUILDING 5H RDG HGTS. IF THIS SOLN PANS OUT THE ASSOC COLD FRONT
WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR WEST AND MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL STAY DRY
ON TUE. GIVEN THIS LATEST MODEL TREND HAVE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK POPS
AND GO WITH AN DRIER FCST FOR NEXT TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. LAKE BREEZES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN REDEVELOP
THURSDAY AT CMX AND SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
AND GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THU. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SE
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND SAT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SRLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN NRLY WINDS. HIGH PRES WILL AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY. OVERALL...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW 20KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
217 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL FALL FROM PTK SOUTHWARD.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT VFR...BUT
DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE AT DTW...YIP...DET...AND PTK. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT MVFR BR TO
DEVELOP LATE AT THE DETROIT-AREA TERMINALS IF WINDS BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN TREND FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TO KEEP THE ENCROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING US TO HOLD ONTO 4-6 KNOTS
OF WIND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THOUGH...ELECTED TO KEEP P6SM
FORECAST FOR NOW.
FOR DTW...CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN ABOUT 4500 FEET AND 6000 FEET
UNTIL THE RAIN STARTS TO MOVE OUT BY 01Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH PREVAILING CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT BETWEEN 18Z
AND 04Z TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 401 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING AND GENERAL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
STILL POSITIONED ACROSS SE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SUSTAIN
A DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. EXTENSIVE
CANOPY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS NOW FUNNELING ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH MULTIPLE MCS COMPLEXES NOW ANCHORED TO THE DEFINED LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL IL/IN.
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE REFLECTION AND ATTENDANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...SOME NORTHWARD FLUCTUATION
OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE IS EXPECTED AS STRONG 850 MB FLOW/NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET FORCING WORKS IN BEHIND THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOW THIS PROCESS TRANSLATES INTO THE EVENTUAL DOWNSTREAM
PROPAGATION/MAINTENANCE OF ANY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE OR
MCV REMAINS AN UNKNOWN. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A TENDENCY
FOR THE PROPAGATION VECTOR TO LEAN TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY
EXISTING TO THE SOUTH.
DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER MESOSCALE FORCING...THIS WOULD THEN LEAVE
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHATEVER MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION/FGEN CAN EMERGE AS THE ELEVATED FRONTAL SLOPE ATTEMPTS
TO ARC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. 00Z ARW MODEL AND
LATEST RUC ASSESSMENT POINT IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ASCENT BETWEEN 700-500 MB...RESULTING IN A WELL DEFINED PIVOT POINT
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THAT ESSENTIALLY BISECTS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST ITERATION OF POPS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...A TIGHTENING OF THE POP GRADIENT FROM CATEGORICAL
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ARB-DTW CORRIDOR TO LITTLE CHANCE NORTH OF I-69.
THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT FORCING ANCHORS LOWER
ON THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND/OR ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH PROVIDES
A GREATER NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND EFFECTIVE
ASCENT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAVE A BROADER AREA
OF SE MICHIGAN SIMPLY UNDER THICK MID CLOUD WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION GENERATION...AND WILL PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY LARGELY
NON-EXISTENT WITH ANY THETA-E CONTRIBUTION NEGLIGIBLE...SO PROSPECTS
FOR THUNDER EVEN NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LOOK SLIM.
THE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAP HIGHS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME FILTERED SUN IS PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS MAINLY LOWER
70S. ANY LINGERING ASCENT LEFT IN THE COLUMN WILL VACATE INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE EDGE OF
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. A CLEARING SKY AND DIMINISHING GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO APPROACH THE 40S IN THE COLDEST LOCALES.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER-WISE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH REALLY ONLY ONE SYSTEM TO CONTEND
WITH THIS WEEKEND. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ALOFT WITH THE
ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET HELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO A STRONG
RIDGE SPRAWLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE POLAR JET IS MORE
AMPLIFIED BUT ITS POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH TROUGHS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS ON OCCASION. SOUTHERN MI WILL
FIND ITSELF IN BETWEEN THE TWO JET FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN AT THE SFC. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL
HAVE A LARGE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH ITS CANADIAN
ORIGINS...850MB TEMPS AROUND 6C THURSDAY INCREASING TO 10C FRIDAY.
THURSDAY THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL TO OUR NW RESULTING IN NE FLOW OVER
THE AREA. COOLER CANADIAN AIR BLOWING OVER COOL LAKE HURON WILL
YIELD TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S...LAKE SHORE AREAS AND INLAND AREAS RESPECTIVELY. THE HIGH WILL
CENTER ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY ENDING THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW DEGREE JUMP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...WHICH IS IN
THE MID 70S. ALSO ON FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REACH THE
STATE. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY DRY WITH PWATS AROUND A HALF INCH SO
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
CHANGES BEGIN TAKING SHAPE ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE
SE ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO MI. BOTH MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH THE WARMING TREND CLIMAXING IN
THE UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT TIED TO A SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL ABSORB A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE
RESULTING PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BEING
ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT MODELS ADVERTISE MANY DIFFERENCES FROM DEGREE OF
PHASING TO AMOUNT OF FORCING ALONG THE FRONT VS THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF. WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR THE SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT DRYING US BACK OUT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A
REMNANT FRONT TODAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...MAINLY LAKE ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE...THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. LAKE HURON SHOULD MISS OUT
ON MOST OF THE RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD CLIP THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN BASIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACOMPANY THE SYSTEM
WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY DRAWING VERY NEAR THE STATE BORDER.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
153 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. IT
WILL PUSH AN AREA OF RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...THAT
COULD BECOME HEAVY TOWARD I-94 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 IN JUST A FEW HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE RAIN AS ONE HEADS NORTH...WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED NORTH OF A WHITEHALL TO ALMA LINE. THE
RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY...
AND 75 TO 80 BY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 75 TO 80 FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPAND HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH...INTO THE I96 CORRIDOR. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AS THE CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS REMOTE AT BEST. NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED. EXPECTING A STRATIFORM RAIN TO
PIVOT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FROM THIS MORNING INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...PER THE HRRR AND OTHER CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS LIKE TH HI-RES ARW AND THE NSSL WRF. ALL OF THESE
MODELS SHOW A PRETTY RAPID END TO THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES VIA THE
RAIN...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A VERY DYNAMIC AND COMPACT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE CWA TODAY. GOOD
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE NORTH LIKELY REMAINS DRY.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IA/MO HAS
PRODUCED OVER FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME LOCALES IN THE PAST 18
HOURS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...TOWARD SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER COMPACT IT
PACKS VERY STRONG JET DYNAMICS...WITH A STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET...ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN IA THIS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AND ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO STAY
WELL TO OUR SOUTH...THE JET DYNAMICS HEAD DIRECTLY FOR THE I-94
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LIFT
THIS PRODUCES IS OFF THE CHARTS AND IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST VALUES
THIS FORECASTER HAS SEEN IN SOME TIME.
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT CONCERNING...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
CONVECTION SLIDING ESE ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO AND TRACKING IT OVER
TIME...IT WOULD MISS SOUTHERN LOWER. BUT CAN NOT IGNORE THE JET
TRENDS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO EXPAND THE PCPN FURTHER NORTH WITH
TIME. NOT REALLY EXPECTING WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDER...THAT SHOULD
STAY MAINLY SOUTH...RATHER EXPECT A STEADY RAIN SETTING UP FROM
ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY TO ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG I-94 AND IF
WE SEE ANY TRAINING OF THE HEAVY RAIN...WE COULD REALIZE RAINFALL
TOTALS NEARING THIS VALUE. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
HOW THIS COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
NO FORECAST ISSUES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE WITH EACH
DAY. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE PATCHY FROST TOWARD HIGHWAY 10 IN THE
USUAL SHALLOW COLD AREAS...LIKE LEOTA...BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS IT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED FOR AN
ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT POOLS MOISTURE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL PICTURE IS THAT SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND EJECTS NORTHEAST...CLEARING
LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY MONDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AS AN APPARENT MCS TRACKS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STORMS STILL IN DOUBT
BUT POSSIBLE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS WELL WITH THE GFS ALMOST 24 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF.
SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT TUESDAY IS A
QUESTION MARK WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
BIGGEST POTENTIAL TO IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL BE THE FOG POSSIBILITIES FOR TONIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON IS NOW STARTING TO END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN MAINLY SOLID VFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME ENTIRELY VFR AT LOCATIONS WHEN THE RAIN ENDS. SOME
LOWER CONDITIONS IN IL AND WI COULD ROTATE IN ACROSS THE I-94
LOCATIONS BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS THERE BY 22-23Z. WE EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO SEE NO WORSE THAN MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT OF A FOG EVENT TONIGHT IS INCREASING...HOWEVER WE ARE
NOT SURE ABOUT IT OCCURRING QUITE YET. WE HAVE ADDED IFR TO ALL
LOCATIONS WITH EVEN VLIFR TO KJXN. SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING AND
WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST GROUND FROM THE RAIN
TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A TEXTBOOK CASE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH FOG...POSSIBLY BECAUSE
OF SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THE LIGHT FLOW WILL LIMIT THE DRY AIR
MOVING IN...SO WE ARE HITTING THE FOG FAIRLY HARD. ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY 14Z THU.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL PIVOT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES AS STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE IN SPOTS IN THE HEAVIEST SWATH. THE HEAVIEST SWATH
SHOULD BE ALONG A LINE FROM HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN EAST TO NEAR
JACKSON IN OUR AREA.
REGARDING ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THE HIGHEST TOTALS FROM
MONDAY/S RAIN WAS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS CALHOUN AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. EVEN WITH TODAY/S ADDITIONAL RAIN THOUGH NO HYDRO ISSUES
ARE ANTICIPATED AS IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED. THE JACKSON
RIVER GAGE SITE IS 3 FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1131 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. IT
WILL PUSH AN AREA OF RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...THAT
COULD BECOME HEAVY TOWARD I-94 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 IN JUST A FEW HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE RAIN AS ONE HEADS NORTH...WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED NORTH OF A WHITEHALL TO ALMA LINE. THE
RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY...
AND 75 TO 80 BY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 75 TO 80 FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPAND HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH...INTO THE I96 CORRIDOR. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AS THE CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS REMOTE AT BEST. NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED. EXPECTING A STRATIFORM RAIN TO
PIVOT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FROM THIS MORNING INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...PER THE HRRR AND OTHER CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS LIKE TH HI-RES ARW AND THE NSSL WRF. ALL OF THESE
MODELS SHOW A PRETTY RAPID END TO THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES VIA THE
RAIN...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A VERY DYNAMIC AND COMPACT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE CWA TODAY. GOOD
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE NORTH LIKELY REMAINS DRY.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IA/MO HAS
PRODUCED OVER FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME LOCALES IN THE PAST 18
HOURS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...TOWARD SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER COMPACT IT
PACKS VERY STRONG JET DYNAMICS...WITH A STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET...ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN IA THIS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AND ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO STAY
WELL TO OUR SOUTH...THE JET DYNAMICS HEAD DIRECTLY FOR THE I-94
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LIFT
THIS PRODUCES IS OFF THE CHARTS AND IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST VALUES
THIS FORECASTER HAS SEEN IN SOME TIME.
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT CONCERNING...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
CONVECTION SLIDING ESE ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO AND TRACKING IT OVER
TIME...IT WOULD MISS SOUTHERN LOWER. BUT CAN NOT IGNORE THE JET
TRENDS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO EXPAND THE PCPN FURTHER NORTH WITH
TIME. NOT REALLY EXPECTING WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDER...THAT SHOULD
STAY MAINLY SOUTH...RATHER EXPECT A STEADY RAIN SETTING UP FROM
ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY TO ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG I-94 AND IF
WE SEE ANY TRAINING OF THE HEAVY RAIN...WE COULD REALIZE RAINFALL
TOTALS NEARING THIS VALUE. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
HOW THIS COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
NO FORECAST ISSUES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE WITH EACH
DAY. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE PATCHY FROST TOWARD HIGHWAY 10 IN THE
USUAL SHALLOW COLD AREAS...LIKE LEOTA...BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS IT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED FOR AN
ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT POOLS MOISTURE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL PICTURE IS THAT SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND EJECTS NORTHEAST...CLEARING
LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY MONDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AS AN APPARENT MCS TRACKS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STORMS STILL IN DOUBT
BUT POSSIBLE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS WELL WITH THE GFS ALMOST 24 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF.
SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT TUESDAY IS A
QUESTION MARK WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
RAIN WILL BE MOVING IN THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY 18Z. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 02Z. THE HEAVIER RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM AZO TO JXN WHERE SOME
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL PIVOT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES AS STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE IN SPOTS IN THE HEAVIEST SWATH. THE HEAVIEST SWATH
SHOULD BE ALONG A LINE FROM HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN EAST TO NEAR
JACKSON IN OUR AREA.
REGARDING ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THE HIGHEST TOTALS FROM
MONDAY/S RAIN WAS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS CALHOUN AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. EVEN WITH TODAY/S ADDITIONAL RAIN THOUGH NO HYDRO ISSUES
ARE ANTICIPATED AS IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED. THE JACKSON
RIVER GAGE SITE IS 3 FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
730 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD AS SE MICHIGAN
RESIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CORRIDOR OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION UPSTREAM. WHILE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
AREA OF RAIN TO DEVELOP LOCALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS METRO DETROIT AND IN THE VICINITY OF
PONTIAC. PREDOMINANT VFR WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH A
WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS PLAUSIBLE SHOULD A PERIOD OF STEADY
HEAVIER RAINFALL EMERGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HOLDS THROUGH THE
DAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 18Z TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 401 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING AND GENERAL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
STILL POSITIONED ACROSS SE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SUSTAIN
A DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. EXTENSIVE
CANOPY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS NOW FUNNELING ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH MULTIPLE MCS COMPLEXES NOW ANCHORED TO THE DEFINED LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL IL/IN.
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE REFLECTION AND ATTENDANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...SOME NORTHWARD FLUCTUATION
OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE IS EXPECTED AS STRONG 850 MB FLOW/NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET FORCING WORKS IN BEHIND THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOW THIS PROCESS TRANSLATES INTO THE EVENTUAL DOWNSTREAM
PROPAGATION/MAINTENANCE OF ANY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE OR
MCV REMAINS AN UNKNOWN. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A TENDENCY
FOR THE PROPAGATION VECTOR TO LEAN TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY
EXISTING TO THE SOUTH.
DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER MESOSCALE FORCING...THIS WOULD THEN LEAVE
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHATEVER MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION/FGEN CAN EMERGE AS THE ELEVATED FRONTAL SLOPE ATTEMPTS
TO ARC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. 00Z ARW MODEL AND
LATEST RUC ASSESSMENT POINT IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ASCENT BETWEEN 700-500 MB...RESULTING IN A WELL DEFINED PIVOT POINT
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THAT ESSENTIALLY BISECTS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST ITERATION OF POPS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...A TIGHTENING OF THE POP GRADIENT FROM CATEGORICAL
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ARB-DTW CORRIDOR TO LITTLE CHANCE NORTH OF I-69.
THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT FORCING ANCHORS LOWER
ON THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND/OR ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH PROVIDES
A GREATER NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND EFFECTIVE
ASCENT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAVE A BROADER AREA
OF SE MICHIGAN SIMPLY UNDER THICK MID CLOUD WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION GENERATION...AND WILL PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY LARGELY
NON-EXISTENT WITH ANY THETA-E CONTRIBUTION NEGLIGIBLE...SO PROSPECTS
FOR THUNDER EVEN NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LOOK SLIM.
THE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAP HIGHS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME FILTERED SUN IS PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS MAINLY LOWER
70S. ANY LINGERING ASCENT LEFT IN THE COLUMN WILL VACATE INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE EDGE OF
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. A CLEARING SKY AND DIMINISHING GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO APPROACH THE 40S IN THE COLDEST LOCALES.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER-WISE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH REALLY ONLY ONE SYSTEM TO CONTEND
WITH THIS WEEKEND. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ALOFT WITH THE
ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET HELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO A STRONG
RIDGE SPRAWLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE POLAR JET IS MORE
AMPLIFIED BUT ITS POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH TROUGHS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS ON OCCASION. SOUTHERN MI WILL
FIND ITSELF IN BETWEEN THE TWO JET FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN AT THE SFC. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL
HAVE A LARGE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH ITS CANADIAN
ORIGINS...850MB TEMPS AROUND 6C THURSDAY INCREASING TO 10C FRIDAY.
THURSDAY THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL TO OUR NW RESULTING IN NE FLOW OVER
THE AREA. COOLER CANADIAN AIR BLOWING OVER COOL LAKE HURON WILL
YIELD TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S...LAKE SHORE AREAS AND INLAND AREAS RESPECTIVELY. THE HIGH WILL
CENTER ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY ENDING THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW DEGREE JUMP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...WHICH IS IN
THE MID 70S. ALSO ON FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REACH THE
STATE. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY DRY WITH PWATS AROUND A HALF INCH SO
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
CHANGES BEGIN TAKING SHAPE ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE
SE ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO MI. BOTH MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH THE WARMING TREND CLIMAXING IN
THE UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT TIED TO A SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL ABSORB A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE
RESULTING PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BEING
ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT MODELS ADVERTISE MANY DIFFERENCES FROM DEGREE OF
PHASING TO AMOUNT OF FORCING ALONG THE FRONT VS THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF. WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR THE SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT DRYING US BACK OUT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A
REMNANT FRONT TODAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...MAINLY LAKE ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE...THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. LAKE HURON SHOULD MISS OUT
ON MOST OF THE RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD CLIP THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN BASIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACOMPANY THE SYSTEM
WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY DRAWING VERY NEAR THE STATE BORDER.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
401 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING AND GENERAL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
STILL POSITIONED ACROSS SE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SUSTAIN
A DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. EXTENSIVE
CANOPY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS NOW FUNNELING ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH MULTIPLE MCS COMPLEXES NOW ANCHORED TO THE DEFINED LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL IL/IN.
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE REFLECTION AND ATTENDANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...SOME NORTHWARD FLUCTUATION
OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE IS EXPECTED AS STRONG 850 MB FLOW/NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET FORCING WORKS IN BEHIND THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOW THIS PROCESS TRANSLATES INTO THE EVENTUAL DOWNSTREAM
PROPAGATION/MAINTENANCE OF ANY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE OR
MCV REMAINS AN UNKNOWN. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A TENDENCY
FOR THE PROPAGATION VECTOR TO LEAN TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY
EXISTING TO THE SOUTH.
DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER MESOSCALE FORCING...THIS WOULD THEN LEAVE
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHATEVER MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION/FGEN CAN EMERGE AS THE ELEVATED FRONTAL SLOPE ATTEMPTS
TO ARC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. 00Z ARW MODEL AND
LATEST RUC ASSESSMENT POINT IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ASCENT BETWEEN 700-500 MB...RESULTING IN A WELL DEFINED PIVOT POINT
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THAT ESSENTIALLY BISECTS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST ITERATION OF POPS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...A TIGHTENING OF THE POP GRADIENT FROM CATEGORICAL
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ARB-DTW CORRIDOR TO LITTLE CHANCE NORTH OF I-69.
THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT FORCING ANCHORS LOWER
ON THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND/OR ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH PROVIDES
A GREATER NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND EFFECTIVE
ASCENT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAVE A BROADER AREA
OF SE MICHIGAN SIMPLY UNDER THICK MID CLOUD WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION GENERATION...AND WILL PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY LARGELY
NON-EXISTENT WITH ANY THETA-E CONTRIBUTION NEGLIGIBLE...SO PROSPECTS
FOR THUNDER EVEN NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LOOK SLIM.
THE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAP HIGHS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME FILTERED SUN IS PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS MAINLY LOWER
70S. ANY LINGERING ASCENT LEFT IN THE COLUMN WILL VACATE INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE EDGE OF
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. A CLEARING SKY AND DIMINISHING GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO APPROACH THE 40S IN THE COLDEST LOCALES.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER-WISE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH REALLY ONLY ONE SYSTEM TO CONTEND
WITH THIS WEEKEND. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ALOFT WITH THE
ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET HELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO A STRONG
RIDGE SPRAWLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE POLAR JET IS MORE
AMPLIFIED BUT ITS POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH TROUGHS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS ON OCCASION. SOUTHERN MI WILL
FIND ITSELF IN BETWEEN THE TWO JET FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN AT THE SFC. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL
HAVE A LARGE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH ITS CANADIAN
ORIGINS...850MB TEMPS AROUND 6C THURSDAY INCREASING TO 10C FRIDAY.
THURSDAY THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL TO OUR NW RESULTING IN NE FLOW OVER
THE AREA. COOLER CANADIAN AIR BLOWING OVER COOL LAKE HURON WILL
YIELD TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S...LAKE SHORE AREAS AND INLAND AREAS RESPECTIVELY. THE HIGH WILL
CENTER ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY ENDING THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW DEGREE JUMP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...WHICH IS IN
THE MID 70S. ALSO ON FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REACH THE
STATE. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY DRY WITH PWATS AROUND A HALF INCH SO
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
CHANGES BEGIN TAKING SHAPE ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE
SE ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO MI. BOTH MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH THE WARMING TREND CLIMAXING IN
THE UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT TIED TO A SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL ABSORB A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE
RESULTING PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BEING
ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT MODELS ADVERTISE MANY DIFFERENCES FROM DEGREE OF
PHASING TO AMOUNT OF FORCING ALONG THE FRONT VS THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF. WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR THE SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT DRYING US BACK OUT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A
REMNANT FRONT TODAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...MAINLY LAKE ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE...THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. LAKE HURON SHOULD MISS OUT
ON MOST OF THE RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD CLIP THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN BASIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACOMPANY THE SYSTEM
WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY DRAWING VERY NEAR THE STATE BORDER.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
//DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW ADVANCING ACROSS ERN NE/SRN
IA/NRN MO WILL LARGELY TRACK SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM
RAIN MAY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SRN LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF
THE ONSET OF RAIN AND HOW FAR NORTH THE RAINFALL REACHES CARRIES A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. THESE FACTORS WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY UPON THE PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION COMPLEXES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
NORTH OF METRO DETROIT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC HIGH NOW OVER SRN MI SHOULD KEEP CLOUD BASES OVER 6K
FT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS HOWEVER A POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD
BASES TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE DAY /ESPECIALLY AROUND
METRO DETROIT/ IF THE RAIN PROVES TO BE MORE PROLONGED.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER NRN ONTARIO AND A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...GUSTY WEST WINDS PREVAILED BEHIND
A DEPARTING 993 MB LOW TO NEAR JAMES BAY. RADAR INDICATED A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
RELATIVELY LOW 800 MB TEMPS NEAR 2C ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE DIURNAL CELLULAR CU AND ANY SPRINKLES
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
WED...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NRN
LAKES AND KEEPS THE ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDAY WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM
SRN IA INTO NRN IL. WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...PROMINENT LAKE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. DEEP MIXING ABOVE 850 MB WILL DROP AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS BELOW 40F WITH RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT AS INLAND HIGH TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AT 00Z THURSDAY THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE STRETCHED FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND WI. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDED FROM
THE MAIN HIGH OVER THE S U.S. UP THROUGH MN AND ONTARIO. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ONE ALTERNATE/WETTEST
SOLUTION IS THE 03/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...WHICH PAINTS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA ALREADY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
LESS WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
CENTRAL AND E MN /AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM/. WILL KEEP THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...BUT ALSO ADD SOME
INLAND W THIRD CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
100-300J/KG CAPE VALUES AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES. PUT IN A QUICK 20
POP...BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT REMAINS DRY.
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE THE RULE THURSDAY...AND PRIMARILY
OFF LAKE MI AND W UPPER MI ON FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPS A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE SHORELINES.
GIVEN THE DRY WEATHER...FIRE CONCERNS WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK INTO
THE WEATHER PICTURE. DOWNGRADED THE ELEVATED BACK TO LIMITED IN THE
EHWO FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL...AND CUT
BACK THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY GIVEN THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
EXPECT THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SETTLE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
W UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SHIFTING E SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TRIALLING MAIN 500MB
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE STACKED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SWING
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE FCST. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIMITED AT THIS TIME...SO KEPT THEM
IN FOR ONLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE MAIN
FRONT...WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
DRIER AIR WILL THEN SWEEP IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGERING FOR THE START OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG AT KIWD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED OFF RECENT OBS...BUT SHOULD NOT
DROP BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO SAT AS SFC HIGH PRES GENERALLY DOMINATES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/SRF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
107 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATOION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PAIRED WITH RAP ANALYZED 500MB
HEIGHTS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A POTENT MCS WAS
EASILY VISIBLE VIA REGIONAL RADAR SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER FROM NEBRASKA TO
ILLINOIS. THIS MCS WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS IT RACES
ACROSS ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. THE AFFECT OF
THIS ON OUR WEATHER WAS SOME EARLIER RAINFALL THAT HAD SPREAD INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT POPS WERE QUICKLY HACKED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS AS NEWEST HI-RES MODEL DATA AND
RADAR TRENDS MADE IT CLEAR THE PRECIPITATION WAS GOING TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN TODAY AND THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME LESS AND
LESS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW /RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING
WEATHER JUST TO OUR SOUTH/ DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BY NEAR 10 MPH. THE NEXT
FEATURE TO WATCH IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY STRETCHED
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST TODAY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN MANITOBA. ITS AFFECT
ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IT
IS THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS BOUNDARY THAT EXPLAINS THE
INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN
MINNESOTA JUST PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY. FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL MEAN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FAST-
MOVING WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF JUNE.
THE FIRST OF THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS SET TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY...AT THE SAME TIME AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT /TRAILING A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN MANITOBA/ MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE THE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL MN...WITH DECLINING CHANCES WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED THE
HIGHEST POPS /60-70 PERCENT/ OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...TAPERING TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE TWIN CITIES...AND 20 PERCENT FOR WEST CENTRAL WI.
THE NEXT WAVE WORTHY OF MENTION IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND INTERACTS WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO HAVE STALLED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN NATURE...THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED
WELL TO THE SOUTH /SOUTHERN MISSOURI/. THEREFORE THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING RAINS IN THE CWA IS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MEAN
COOL TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DID
RETAIN 20 POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT THAT MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED.
YET ANOTHER WAVE IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE 04.00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE NOTABLY
DIFFERENT REGARDING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMPLITUDE OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 20-30 PERCENT POPS AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E WHILE A CDFNT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS SLOWLY APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCRS WITH DECKS STEADILY LOWERING...BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY CEILINGS DROPPING INTO MVFR LEVELS. -SHRA WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE MOST LIKELY SITES SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING
PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO AND UP TO 18Z TMRW AFTN BEING KAXN-KSTC.
THE REMAINING TAF SITES...PARTICULARLY KRWF-KMSP...MAY SEE PRECIP
AFTER 18Z BUT WILL NEED TO LET NEXT TAF ISSUANCE RESOLVE THIS. AS
FOR TSTMS...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSTMS ATTM BUT
GIVEN THE INCREASED INSTABILITY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ISOLD TSTMS TRY TO MAKE A RUN INTO WRN-CENTRAL MN UP TO 18Z TMRW.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM E TO S OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW WITH
SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.
KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT...BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCRS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. LOOKING FOR CEILINGS TO
REMAIN AOB 5 KFT THROUGHOUT...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FEW/SCT CU
CLOUDS TMRW AFTN. NO PRECIP XPCTD PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CHANCES ARE
IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE BY THEN SO AN ISOLD SHOWER MOVG
NEAR/OVER THE TERMINAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC SHRA/TSRA. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
612 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PAIRED WITH RAP ANALYZED 500MB
HEIGHTS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A POTENT MCS WAS EASILY
VISIBLE VIA REGIONAL RADAR SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER FROM NEBRASKA TO ILLINOIS. THIS MCS
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS IT RACES ACROSS ILLINOIS LATER
THIS MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. THE AFFECT OF THIS ON OUR WEATHER WAS
SOME EARLIER RAINFALL THAT HAD SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...BUT POPS WERE QUICKLY HACKED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS AS NEWEST HI-RES MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS MADE IT
CLEAR THE PRECIPITATION WAS GOING TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME LESS AND LESS. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW /RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING WEATHER JUST TO OUR
SOUTH/ DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BY NEAR 10 MPH. THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY STRETCHED SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN MANITOBA. ITS AFFECT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER
WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS
BOUNDARY THAT EXPLAINS THE INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN MINNESOTA JUST PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY. FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
OF YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL MEAN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FAST-
MOVING WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF JUNE.
THE FIRST OF THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS SET TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY...AT THE SAME TIME AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT /TRAILING A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN MANITOBA/ MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE THE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL MN...WITH DECLINING CHANCES WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED THE
HIGHEST POPS /60-70 PERCENT/ OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...TAPERING TO
30 PERCENT FOR THE TWIN CITIES...AND 20 PERCENT FOR WEST CENTRAL
WI.
THE NEXT WAVE WORTHY OF MENTION IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND INTERACTS WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD
FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO HAVE STALLED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN NATURE...THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED WELL TO THE
SOUTH /SOUTHERN MISSOURI/. THEREFORE THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING
RAINS IN THE CWA IS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MEAN
COOL TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DID
RETAIN 20 POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT THAT MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED.
YET ANOTHER WAVE IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE 04.00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE NOTABLY
DIFFERENT REGARDING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMPLITUDE OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 20-30 PERCENT POPS AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
VERY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD AHEAD WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH TRANSPARENT
CLOUDS EXPECTED...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. WINDS STARTING OUT VARIABLE WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED BY
MID MORNING...GENERALLY FROM THE NE TO EAST. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
30 HOURS...THE WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 8-10KTS DURING THE DAY AND
SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN SITES AGAIN TONIGHT. LIMITED
STRATOCU EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA SHOULD
NOT LAST...AND ONLY MENTION OF THIS WAS AT KEAU.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT NOT REACHING ANY TAF SITES BY TOMORROW MORNING.
KMSP...A FEW STRATOCU AROUND 5K FEET IS NOT EXPECTED TO LINGER.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WIND
TURNING MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
TOMORROW. EVEN BY 18Z TOMORROW...STILL EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO
REMAIN WEST OF MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA WEST. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PAIRED WITH RAP ANALYZED 500MB
HEIGHTS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A POTENT MCS WAS EASILY
VISIBLE VIA REGIONAL RADAR SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER FROM NEBRASKA TO ILLINOIS. THIS MCS
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS IT RACES ACROSS ILLINOIS LATER
THIS MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. THE AFFECT OF THIS ON OUR WEATHER WAS
SOME EARLIER RAINFALL THAT HAD SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...BUT POPS WERE QUICKLY HACKED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS AS NEWEST HI-RES MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS MADE IT
CLEAR THE PRECIPITATION WAS GOING TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME LESS AND LESS. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW /RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING WEATHER JUST TO OUR
SOUTH/ DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BY NEAR 10 MPH. THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY STRETCHED SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN MANITOBA. ITS AFFECT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER
WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS
BOUNDARY THAT EXPLAINS THE INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN MINNESOTA JUST PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY. FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
OF YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL MEAN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FAST-
MOVING WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF JUNE.
THE FIRST OF THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS SET TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY...AT THE SAME TIME AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT /TRAILING A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN MANITOBA/ MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE THE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL MN...WITH DECLINING CHANCES WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED THE
HIGHEST POPS /60-70 PERCENT/ OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...TAPERING TO
30 PERCENT FOR THE TWIN CITIES...AND 20 PERCENT FOR WEST CENTRAL
WI.
THE NEXT WAVE WORTHY OF MENTION IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND INTERACTS WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD
FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO HAVE STALLED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN NATURE...THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED WELL TO THE
SOUTH /SOUTHERN MISSOURI/. THEREFORE THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING
RAINS IN THE CWA IS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MEAN
COOL TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DID
RETAIN 20 POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT THAT MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED.
YET ANOTHER WAVE IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE 04.00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE NOTABLY
DIFFERENT REGARDING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMPLITUDE OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 20-30 PERCENT POPS AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING ESE TOWARD MN/IA
BORDER AREA BY WEDNESDAY MID MORNING. SYSTEMS WEAKENS AS IT HEADS
TOWARD MODEST UPPER RIDGE. THEREFORE EXPECT ONLY SOME BKN MID
CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING. STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS.
BEST LIFT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP AT
THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...EAST WINDS WILL BUMP UP SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH A LITTLE BIT OF GRADIENT BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN 10
KNOTS.
KMSP...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SOME MID CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT. ONLY OTHER MATTER IS WIND DIRECTION. WIND SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST OR EVEN ENE
BY 11Z AND REMAINING EAST MUCH OF THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH FINALLY
DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN WINDS SHOULD
TURN MORE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC SHRA/TSRA. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
930 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...DROPPED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST OF THE
EVENING ALTHOUGH INTRODUCED LATE NIGHT CHANCES IN NORTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS IN NORTHERN HALF OF ZONES TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. /BB/
&&
.DISCUSSION...LARGE AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PASSED NORTH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS NOW LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER IN
GA. THIS COMPLEX RODE A FRONTAL ZONE EASTWARD AND HAS NUDGED THIS
FRONTAL ZONE A LITTLE SOUTH...THEREFORE INCREASING CHANCES THE NEXT
PASSING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN WILL TRACK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. HRRR SHORT RANGE
EXPLICIT MODEL SUGGESTS ACTIVITY NOW GETTING GOING IN OKLAHOMA WILL
HEAD IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION AND PERHAPS GET NEAR THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA BY SUNRISE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS
RUNNING NEAR THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR COULD TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS A LITTLE BEFORE THAT TIME.
CHANCES ARE PRETTY GOOD ANY SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO PUSH INTO MY
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BEFORE PUSHING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION WILL TRACK AND THUS
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT A GOOD BIT OF IT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON COULD
REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF OUR REGION. BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHWARD
TREND OF ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS PERSISTING WAS ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE LIMITED SEVERE RISK DURING THE DAY TOMORROW IN NORTHERN
ZONES AND HWO AND GRAPHICS WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
ONCE AGAIN WE ARE THINKING THAT HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE RISKS.
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS POINTING TO POSSIBLY TWO ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS PASSING THROUGH (OR IN VERY CLOSE VICINITY) OF
NORTHERN ZONES TOMORROW. THE FIRST ENCOUNTER I ALREADY DESCRIBED AND
THE NEXT PASS TO COME IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF TIMING I ENDEAVORED TO NOT BE SPECIFIC WITH TIMING
OF HIGHEST POPS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING...BUT DID GENERALLY
INCREASE THOSE POPS IN NORTHERN ZONES BECAUSE OF INCREASING
CONFIDENCE OF SOME EVENTUAL IMPACT.
LASTLY...PATCHY FOG WAS A BIT OF AN ISSUE LATE LAST NIGHT IN SE MS
AND COULD BE AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AROUND AT DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NORTH OF I-20. A STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA IS INHIBITING
MUCH OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORMS OVER OUR AREA CURRENTLY. EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC COVERS THIS
PORTION OF THE AREA AS PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR 2 INCHES AND
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE THE
PERSISTENT CAP OVER THE REGION WHICH MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY OVER AREA FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN THE HWO AND ON OUR CURRENT GRAPHICAST. LITTLE
WILL CHANGE ON SATURDAY...BUT THE MODELS DUE SUGGEST THE UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THESE SAME
AREAS. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO MAV POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID
CUT BELOW GUIDANCE HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH DUE TO EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLOUDS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST PAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
BELOW./15/
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY PERSISTENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH TX WITH FAST PACED NEAR ZONAL FLOW TO
THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ALSO
..EAST-WEST ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS OK/AR/TN.
ECMWF/GFS ARE BOTH SIMILAR WITH THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT DEVIATE THEREAFTER. EACH MODEL DIGS A WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE
MAGNITUDE AND PROGRESSION DIFFER WITH EACH MODEL. THE SLOWER/DEEPER
ECMWF KEEPS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK
WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EFFECTIVELY ENDS THE DAMP PATTERN. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
EVENTUAL OUTCOME THROUGH MID WEEK...DECIDED TO GO MORE WITH
PERSISTENCE IN MAINTAINING THE UNSETTLED/DAMP PATTERN WHICH ENDS UP
BEING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF./26/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS CIGS WL DEVELOP CNTRL AND S ZONES BY 10Z
FRI BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY REMAIN TOO THICK IN THE NORTH
FOR MUCH SUB VFR. HOWEVER IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS (GLH/GWO/CBM/GTR)
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE CIGS IN THE CNTRL AND S WL IMPROVE TO
ABOVE 3KFT BY 16Z WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT HKS/JAN/MEI/NMM. POTENTIALLY
POTENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BETTER BET IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AERODROME FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. OF COURSE GUSTY
WINDS...TURBULENCE...AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AMONGST ANY STORMS. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 71 92 73 94 / 11 19 14 22
MERIDIAN 70 92 70 94 / 13 32 20 31
VICKSBURG 70 93 69 93 / 10 15 12 16
HATTIESBURG 71 92 72 95 / 5 14 12 17
NATCHEZ 70 92 70 93 / 5 11 13 10
GREENVILLE 73 89 73 93 / 32 42 28 29
GREENWOOD 72 88 72 92 / 29 51 29 34
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/15/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 942 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
Convection has redeveloped over far southern Missouri and into
northeast Oklahoma late this evening. This activity was located
along a surface boundary stretched from west to east over the
area. ML CAPES were in the 3000-4000j/kg range over north central
OK and around 2000-3000 j/kg over far southwest Missouri where CIN
has diminished throughout the evening. A watch has been issued to
include the far southwest corner of Missouri for 4 counties until
5 am as some of these storms may develop large hail and damaging
downburst winds. It appears the best chance for severe storms will
be just south and west of our area, however a few of the stronger
updrafts may make it into southwest Missouri tonight.
Later tonight, an MCS is expected to develop over western Kansas
and into the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and then track
east across Oklahoma. The northern portions of this system may
affect southern Missouri very late tonight with the potential for
damaging straight line winds and very heavy rainfall as the main hazards.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
The active weather pattern will continue with the next round of
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall developing later tonight.
The airmass had stabilized in the wake of the convective complex
earlier today while the effective boundary had sagged southward into
northern Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma. Meanwhile a couple of
perturbations tracking through a seasonably strong westerly flow
aloft were tracking toward the region.
This forecast is complex with features and convective development
driven by mesoscale processes.
We will initially have to monitor for potential convective
development early this evening across eastern Kansas into west
central Missouri with the passage of a weak impulse. While some
near term models indicate the development of robust convection
the extent of destabilization is in doubt. Overall expect we will
see some scattered storms develop early this evening mainly to
our northwest with the potential of this activity developing into
our area.
Of greater concern and confidence is convection developing late
this evening into the overnight hours as a more discernible
disturbance approaches from the west and a low level jet develops.
The low level jet and resulting moisture transport will interact
with the existing east to west oriented boundary to ignite
thunderstorm development. Ample instability rooted above the
boundary layer and seasonably strong deep layer shear will support
the potential of a few severe storms from southeastern Kansas into
far southern Missouri.
Of greater concern is the potential for torrential rainfall on top
of areas that have received recent heavy rains. Expect 1 to 2
inches with locally up to 3 inches across our southern counties or
generally south of a Nevada to Salem line.
A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Missouri Ozarks and
southeastern Kansas generally south of Highway 54.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
The parade of convection will continue into the weekend as the
front remains stalled across the region and a series of
disturbances track eastward. While the exact timing and
evolution of the development of thunderstorms is somewhat
uncertain it appears the focus for storm development will be
Friday night into Saturday and again late Saturday into Sunday.
Each round of convection will bring the potential of heavy
rainfall and flooding along with the risk of severe weather.
The unsettled weather will persist into next week with additional
chances of storms at times.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
Some showers were just now as of 23z beginning to develop in a
band from Pittsburg Kansas to Lamar Missouri a little north of the
JLN terminal. This is along a boundary and on the edge of decent
ML CAPE with little to no remaining CIN. Will need to watch this
area for enhanced development, but for now believe much of the
area is still worked over from earlier MCS. Have included evening
VCSH wording in the JLN TAF for this band of showers, but for now
have left out of the SGF/BBG TAFS. Of more concern will be where
the overnight convection/MCS will track. Latest HRRR signals show
that main activity will be south of the CWA. Have gone with
prob30`s in the BBG taf and left out of SGF/JLN for now from about
09z-12z overnight. TAFS may need to be adjusted should this shower
activity expand in coverage early this evening.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR MOZ066-077>083-
088>098-101>106.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
915 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 910 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Making some changes to the forecast for the rest of tonight.
Primarily to PoPs. Looks like focus for convection will be down
across southern Missouri and that the storms up in Iowa which
might have threatened parts of northeast Missouri/west central
Illinois have pretty much died out. With the shortwave moving
rapidly east through the Upper Mississippi Valley, I think
regeneration is unlikely. Latest RAP and HRRR still indicate that
some of the southern convection could clip the far southern
portions of our CWFA overnight, but it looks like the vast
majority of our area should stay dry.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Unsettled weather is expected to continue over the next several
days due to multiple shortwaves interacting with a quasistationary
front as it sloshes back and forth across the region.
Tonight...There are two areas where precipitation is possible this
evening and overnight. The first area is across the northern CWA
within a zone of ascent ahead of an elongated mid/upper trough
moving through the northern plains. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA have
already developed along an upstream surface trough/front in NE/KS
aided by ascent from this trough, and the precip could move
eastward into northeast MO/west central IL if it persists.
However, the H5 trough axis is forecast to move quickly eastward,
and upstream SHRA/TSRA may not persist long enough to reach the
LSX CWA in the absence of upper level support.
The second area is across the far southern CWA where a developing
LLJ should interact with a quasistationary front across southern
MO, leading to another MCS tonight. The position of the synoptic
scale quasistationary boundary has been pushed farther south by a
mesoscale outflow boundary from the large MCS which moved across
southwestern MO earlier today. Initial thoughts are that today`s
MCS will have pushed the effective boundary far enough south that
the main precip threat from an MCS during the overnight hours
should be south of the CWA, although there is uncertainty about
the location of scattered WAA pcpn. This fits reasonably well with
forecasts from the local WRF, GFS, and ECMWF regarding placement
of MUCAPE and H7-H85 moisture convergence. The areal coverage of
likely PoPs has been reduced accordingly, although it may still be
too high depending on where the MCS forms.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Friday through Sunday...There may be a brief break in the
precipitation on Friday due to shortwave ridging aloft across most
of the area. Scattered SHRA/TSRA remain possible across the
southern CWA due to the presence of a boundary and weak
shortwaves.
High pressure moving out of Canada will push a cold front into the
northern and central plains on Fri night and Sat, but this
boundary appears to remain distinct from the quasistationary
front/developing warm front located farther south, at least
initially. In any event, precipitation should spread across the
area on Sat/Sat night due to a combination of factors associated
with an approaching shortwave, starting with a developing H85 LLJ
on Fri night which will interact with the quasistationary boundary
across MO/KS, leading to increasing precipitation chances by
daybreak as the shortwave progresses eastward. Isentropic ascent
also increases along the 305-315 K surfaces during the day on Sat
as the boundary starts to lift north as a warm front. Models have
been consistently showing that this shortwave also induces a
surface low along the western part of the stalled boundary (which
may have been reinforced by the cold front dropping south out of
the northern plains) which then tracks northeastward through MO
into IL. Forecast PW values of 1.8-2" on Sat are at +2 SD for June
across this part of the country, suggesting that locally heavy
rainfall is possible. The precipitation should taper off on late
Sat night with the passage of the shortwave. Another shortwave may
or may not approach the area on Sunday, but it is difficult to
discern whether this feature is a shortwave or the result of
convective feedback.
Monday through Wednesday...Compared to the 04/12z runs and the
05/00z runs, the 05/12z model runs have come into astounding
agreement regarding the large scale pattern during Mon-Wed.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all show a closed low developing over the central
CONUS after two vort maxes become phased over MO/AR/IL. Despite
the remarkable agreement between models, I am hesitant to buy into
this solution right away because it seems unlikely that all of the
models are accurately capturing the timing and placement of weak,
unsampled, and occasionally ill-defined shortwaves this far in
advance and in the presence of convective feedback issues. Due to
low confidence, this forecast package generally followed the
recommended CR initialization for Mon-Wed.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 712 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Surface boundary continues to extend from northern Oklahoma
through north central Arkansas and southeast into northern
Alabama. This boundary separates from hot amd humid air to the
south from the cooler and less humid air to the north and east.
This front will slowly move northeast as a warm front late Friday
and on Saturday. Took the vinicity rainshowers out of forecast for
TAFs sites COU..STL..SUS for early Friday morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Borken layer between 030 and 035 kft will
coniinue over STL through this evening. Surface winds will remain
light east southeast at STL. Light fog is forecast to develop
after 0900 utc with visibilities dropping to 5 miles. light fog
will lift after 1300 UTC Friday with scattered clouds around 030
Kft.
RP
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
618 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
The active weather pattern will continue with the next round of
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall developing later tonight.
The airmass had stabilized in the wake of the convective complex
earlier today while the effective boundary had sagged southward into
northern Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma. Meanwhile a couple of
perturbations tracking through a seasonably strong westerly flow
aloft were tracking toward the region.
This forecast is complex with features and convective development
driven by mesoscale processes.
We will initially have to monitor for potential convective
development early this evening across eastern Kansas into west
central Missouri with the passage of a weak impulse. While some
near term models indicate the development of robust convection
the extent of destabilization is in doubt. Overall expect we will
see some scattered storms develop early this evening mainly to
our northwest with the potential of this activity developing into
our area.
Of greater concern and confidence is convection developing late
this evening into the overnight hours as a more discernible
disturbance approaches from the west and a low level jet develops.
The low level jet and resulting moisture transport will interact
with the existing east to west oriented boundary to ignite
thunderstorm development. Ample instability rooted above the
boundary layer and seasonably strong deep layer shear will support
the potential of a few severe storms from southeastern Kansas into
far southern Missouri.
Of greater concern is the potential for torrential rainfall on top
of areas that have received recent heavy rains. Expect 1 to 2
inches with locally up to 3 inches across our southern counties or
generally south of a Nevada to Salem line.
A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Missouri Ozarks and
southeastern Kansas generally south of Highway 54.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
The parade of convection will continue into the weekend as the
front remains stalled across the region and a series of
disturbances track eastward. While the exact timing and
evolution of the development of thunderstorms is somewhat
uncertain it appears the focus for storm development will be
Friday night into Saturday and again late Saturday into Sunday.
Each round of convection will bring the potential of heavy
rainfall and flooding along with the risk of severe weather.
The unsettled weather will persist into next week with additional
chances of storms at times.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
Some showers were just now as of 23z beginning to develop in a
band from Pittsburg Kansas to Lamar Missouri a little north of the
JLN terminal. This is along a boundary and on the edge of decent
ML CAPE with little to no remaining CIN. Will need to watch this
area for enhanced development, but for now believe much of the
area is still worked over from earlier MCS. Have included evening
VCSH wording in the JLN TAF for this band of showers, but for now
have left out of the SGF/BBG TAFS. Of more concern will be where
the overnight convection/MCS will track. Latest HRRR signals show
that main activity will be south of the CWA. Have gone with
prob30`s in the BBG taf and left out of SGF/JLN for now from about
09z-12z overnight. TAFS may need to be adjusted should this shower
activity expand in coverage early this evening.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR MOZ066-077>083-
088>098-101>106.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
104 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Cold front has advanced to near a Vandalia, Illinois to St. Louis
Metro area to Jefferson City line. MLCAPES to the south of the
front are already in the 2500-3000 J/kg range with deep layer
shear of 40-50kts. Would expect the southern part of the CWA to
continue to be at risk for a few severe thunderstorm this afternoon
as the atmosphere continues to destabilize as the front sinks
southward. Latest runs of the HRRR has consistently shown
scattered thunderstorms developing over the next few hours over
the southern CWA.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Large MCS with embedded line segments containing strong wind gusts
and very rainfall rates continues to drop southeastward through the
northern and western portion of our forecast area early this
morning. The IR cloud tops have begun to cool which may signal the
beginning of a slow weakening trend in the convection. No new
severe thunderstorm watches are anticipated, although there still may
be isolated severe wind gusts along with localized flooding this
morning. The gradually weakening convection should shift
southeastward through east central and southeast MO and southwest
IL early this morning, then likely shift southeast of our
forecast area by late morning as advertised by the HRRR model.
Although the actual synoptic cold front will not make it down to
central MO and southern IL until late this afternoon or early
this evening, the effective boundary will be the outflow
boundaries from this mornings convection and will be further
south. Therefore redevelopment of convection this afternoon
should be mainly across southeast MO and southwest IL. High
temperatures will be quite warm again today south of the cold
front despite the morning cloud cover.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
The cold front will drop southward into southern portions of MO
and IL tonight with convection confined to southeast MO and
southwest IL tonight along the front. A surface ridge will build
southward into northeast MO and west central IL and bring cooler
temperatures to this area. This front will push just south of our
forecast area on Thursday with cooler, slightly below normal high
temperatures forecast. With weak shortwaves moving fairly quickly
eastward through the region in nearly zonal flow along with the
frontal boundary gradually trying to lift back northward as the
surface ridge over the Great Lakes region shifts eastward into
the Ohio Valley region, the threat for convection will gradually
shift back north-northeastward through our forecast area Thursday
night and Friday. The models are relatively consistent in bringing
convection through our entire forecast area late Friday night and
Saturday as a fairly strong shortwave shifts eastward through the
region and induces a surface wave along the front which should be
across northern or central portions of MO by this time. The chance
of convection will continue on Sunday as a cold front drops
southeastward through the region Sunday afternoon and night.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Cold front has moved south through all of the TAF sites at this
point. Expect redevelopment of thunderstorms to stay south of the
terminals this afternoon. There could also be some MVFR ceilings
to the north of the front, though confidence is not high enough to
include them in the TAFS. Main issue will be that I expect either
low MVFR or IFR ceilings to move into the area after 06Z tonight
and linger over the area through mid morning Saturday. Have
included them in all of the TAF sites.
Specifics for KSTL:
Expect low ceilings to develop at the TAF site late tonight. There
is some possibility that they will fall into the IFR category, but
for now think that they will stay MVFR. Will show only slow
clearing tomorrow.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
438 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Large MCS with embedded line segments containing strong wind gusts
and very rainfall rates continues to drop southeastward through the
northern and western portion of our forecast area early this
morning. The IR cloud tops have begun to cool which may signal the
beginning of a slow weakening trend in the convection. No new
severe thunderstorm watches are anticipated, although there still may
be isolated severe wind gusts along with localized flooding this
morning. The gradually weakening convection should shift
southeastward through east central and southeast MO and southwest
IL early this morning, then likely shift southeast of our
forecast area by late morning as advertised by the HRRR model.
Although the actual synoptic cold front will not make it down to
central MO and southern IL until late this afternoon or early
this evening, the effective boundary will be the outflow
boundaries from this mornings convection and will be further
south. Therefore redevelopment of convection this afternoon
should be mainly across southeast MO and southwest IL. High
temperatures will be quite warm again today south of the cold
front despite the morning cloud cover.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
The cold front will drop southward into southern portions of MO
and IL tonight with convection confined to southeast MO and
southwest IL tonight along the front. A surface ridge will build
southward into northeast MO and west central IL and bring cooler
temperatures to this area. This front will push just south of our
forecast area on Thursday with cooler, slightly below normal high
temperatures forecast. With weak shortwaves moving fairly quickly
eastward through the region in nearly zonal flow along with the
frontal boundary gradually trying to lift back northward as the
surface ridge over the Great Lakes region shifts eastward into
the Ohio Valley region, the threat for convection will gradually
shift back north-northeastard through our forecast area Thursday
night and Friday. The models are relatively consistent in bringing
convection through our entire forecast area late Friday night and
Saturday as a fairly strong shortwave shifts eastward through the
region and induces a surface wave along the front which should be
across northern or central portions of MO by this time. The chance
of convection will continue on Sunday as a cold front drops
southeastward through the region Sunday afternoon and night.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
An elongated mesoscale convective system currently stretches from
central IL across northern MO into southeast NE, and is focused
along and north of the warm front. There are a number of intense
thunderstorm clusters on the southern periphery of this elongated
system, and the overall motion is to the east southeast. KUIN
should continue to see bouts of thunderstorms through daybreak with
flight conditions varying from MVFR to IFR. It still appears that
the thunderstorm complex will impact both KCOU and the St. Louis
area terminals for a 3-4 hour period accompanied by gusty winds
and flight conditions ranging from MVFR to IFR. Additional
scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along the
front on Wednesday afternoon as it gradually settles southward but
the probability is too low to explicity mention in the TAFS.
Specifics for KSTL:
A complex of thunderstorms extending from northwest Missouri into
southeast Nebraska will move southeastward during the overnight
hours. Present indications are the thunderstorm complex will have
enough southward push to impact KSTL beginning around 10z and
lasting until around 14z. The intensity is hard to gage and could
certainly be stronger than the current forecast of wind gusts to
25 kts and MVFR flight conditions. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible along the front on Wednesday afternoon
as it moves southward, and have added a VCTS for 21z-00z.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
409 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Large MCS with embedded line segments containing strong wind gusts
and very rainfall rates continues to drop southeastward through the
northern and western portion of our forecast area early this
morning. The IR cloud tops have begun to cool which may signal the
beginning of a slow weakening trend in the convection. No new
severe thunderstorm watches are anticipated, although there still may
be isolated severe wind gusts along with localized flooding this
morning. The gradually weakening convection should shift
southeastward through east central and southeast MO and southwest
IL early this morning, then likely shift southeast of our
forecast area by late morning as advertised by the HRRR model.
Although the actual synoptic cold front will not make it down to
central MO and southern IL until late this afternoon or early
this evening, the effective boundary will be the outflow
boundaries from this mornings convection and will be further
south. Therefore redevelopment of convection this afternoon
should be mainly across southeast MO and southwest IL. High
temperatures will be quite warm again today south of the cold
front despite the morning cloud cover.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014
(Wednesday through Friday)
Main concern will the potential for a few severe thunderstorms over
the southern part of the CWA during the day on Wednesday. Any
severe weather from tonight`s MCS should have moved east the area by
12Z, though lingering showers and thunderstorms will likely still be
producing some rainfall over the northern and eastern counties in a
band of 925-850mb moisture convergence. This forcing will then
diminish during the morning hours as the low level jet weakens and
veers. The atmosphere will become extremely unstable along the
front during the afternoon hours with MLCAPE values reaching
3000-4000 J/kg with little CINH. Deep layer shear will also be in
the 40-50kt range suggesting that any storms are able to develop
along the front will be capable of becoming severe. Front will not
move far enough south on Wednesday night to keep thunderstorms out
of the forecast over the southern part of the CWA.
By Thursday the front will move far enough south that all but part
of the eastern Ozarks will be dry. By Thursday night and Friday the
ECMWF is showing strong low level moisture convergence over the area
at the same time that a weak shortwave trough will move across the
area. Have a chance of showers and thunderstorms going both
periods.
After being well above normal over most of the area tomorrow,
temperatures will below normal on Thursday and Friday.
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Looks like there is enough agreement between the GFS and ECMWF that
a warm front will move north into Missouri and Illinois by Saturday
evening in response to a surface low developing over the Central
Plains. The surface low will then track northeast to near Chicago
by early Sunday which will cause a cold front to pass through the
CWA during the day. Will still have best chances of showers and
thunderstorms going Saturday into Sunday. The front will move well
south of the area on Monday, though another trough will move through
the area on Tuesday bringing a slight chance of showers.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm behind the warm front on
Saturday, though they will be at or a bit below normal the rest of
the period behind the cold front.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
An elongated mesoscale convective system currently stretches from
central IL across northern MO into southeast NE, and is focused
along and north of the warm front. There are a number of intense
thunderstorm clusters on the southern periphery of this elongated
system, and the overall motion is to the east southeast. KUIN
should continue to see bouts of thunderstorms through daybreak with
flight conditions varying from MVFR to IFR. It still appears that
the thunderstorm complex will impact both KCOU and the St. Louis
area terminals for a 3-4 hour period accompanied by gusty winds
and flight conditions ranging from MVFR to IFR. Additional
scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along the
front on Wednesday afternoon as it gradually settles southward but
the probability is too low to explicity mention in the TAFS.
Specifics for KSTL:
A complex of thunderstorms extending from northwest Missouri into
southeast Nebraska will move southeastward during the overnight
hours. Present indications are the thunderstorm complex will have
enough southward push to impact KSTL beginning around 10z and
lasting until around 14z. The intensity is hard to gage and could
certainly be stronger than the current forecast of wind gusts to
25 kts and MVFR flight conditions. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible along the front on Wednesday afternoon
as it moves southward, and have added a VCTS for 21z-00z.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
Cold front over northern Missouri will drop south through the region
today. While there could be some scattered storms along the front as
the airmass destabilizes this afternoon, subsidence in the wake of
this morning`s MCS and a lack of any appreciable synoptic-scale
ascent should keep the thunderstorm threat fairly isolated. The best
chance will be across eastern KS into central MO where the atmosphere
will have more time to destabilize when the front arrives later in
the afternoon. Instability and shear will be marginally supportive of
strong winds and hail with any storms that develop.
Active zonal flow will continue across the region Thursday into the
weekend and will bring a number of convective complexes into the
Plains and Midwest. The first of these systems will arrive Thursday
and will interact with a quasi-stationary boundary over southern
parts of Kansas and Missouri. This will keep the primary threat for
severe storms near and south of the boundary, generally south of a
Paola to Clinton line. However with the elevated boundary hanging
back further north a few storms could reach as far north as the
Missouri River Thursday afternoon.
The next wave will track into the region Friday night and Saturday
morning bringing another complex of thunderstorms. The frontal boundary
to the south may shift slightly further north through this time, but
should stay generally south of the US 50 corridor keeping any threat
for severe storms confined to the southern parts of the forecast area
into southeast KS and the Ozarks.
Additional thunderstorms are possible later in the weekend into early
next week as this active zonal pattern continues, but confidence
deteriorates beyond Saturday due to uncertainties with the timing of
additional waves and the location of the quasi-stationary front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Tricky TAF period with ongoing convection across NE, IA, and northern
MO which is progged by the hi-res HRRR model to drop southeastward
across NW Missouri down through east-central Missouri. This convection
appears to be following a warm frontal boundary. Isolated convection
developing near the terminals is currently moving northeastward
towards this front. As the cold pool continues to strengthen along
this warm front, the front may begin to sag southward and allow the
southwest end of the convective complex to near the terminals.
Confidence is low on how far south this complex will extend, thus
will monitor trends of the complex and amend as necessary. For now
have left mention of VCTS for the terminals for isolated activity.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1210 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
Further updates to the forecast for a new severe watch box. The
veering low level jet will continue to interact with the cold pool
being put down by the thunderstorms extending across southeast
Nebraska through northern Missouri. This is expected to maintain
storms along the instability gradient allowing the storms to settle
farther south into west central and central Missouri. Character of
the storms as they settle into west central and central Missouri
should be dominated by large hail and the potential for damaging
winds, but these storms will also include torrential rain. For this
reason have also expanded the flash flood watch to mirror the
existing tornado and severe thunderstorm watches.
UPDATE Issued at 1029 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Based on rainfall rates observed with the storms in far northern
Missouri, have opted to expand the flash flood watch to include all
the counties that tornado watch 210 include. This includes the KC
metro. Rainfall rates of two inches per hour, and some higher, will
be likely with the storms that occur late tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Tornado watch 210 has been expanded south from its original coverage
area based on storm motion associated with the activity currently in
southeast Nebraska. The storms are beginning to turn more southeast
as the low level jet begins to veer this evening. Main threat with
the storms is going to be large hail, damaging winds and torrential
rain. Tornadoes can`t be ruled out, but they are not the primary
threat at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Significant severe episode well underway although the vast majority
of the CWA is dry and will remain so until around sunset when the
upstream MCS/eventual Derecho presses into northern MO. Northern MO
remains under the highest threat for both severe storms as well as
flooding type rainfall. This due to the location of a nearly
stationary front draped across far northern MO and is depicted by
change in character of the cu field and surface obs. Small cluster
of severe storms tracking along the MO/IA border is being enhanced
by strong 0-6km shear of 50-65kts while the 0-1km shear around 20kts
is likely just not strong enough to support for tornadic activity.
However, these values will increase as evening approaches so any
additional storms which form ahead of the approaching MCS will have
a greater chance to spawn tornadoes. A look at the STJ hodograph for
this evening shows why. Impressive as is the MUCAPES of
3000-4000J/kg.
12Z ECMWF and HRRR appear to have best fit of evolution of the large
MCS and backbuilding convection now underway across northern NE.
Current radar trends and HRRR output surge the MCS southeast through
the north central and northeast CWA this evening while the
backbuilding convection over northern NE slides through northwest MO
and northeast KS with possibilities of reaching the KC Metro after
midnight. Current Flash Flood watch over northern MO looks on track.
Convection will finally exit the eastern CWA during the per-dawn
hours of Wednesday morning. A post-frontal cold front will trail and
eventually sweep through the CWA on Wednesday. The cold air
advection will lag allowing favorable mixing of the elevated warm layer
to mix down resulting in another very warm day. Could see highs
around 90 across the far southern CWA. Will keep slight chance PoPs
across this area as peak heating and some convergence along the
front could form isolated convection.
This front is not expected to move too far south of the CWA with the
very moist and unstable airmass poised to the south of the frontal
boundary. Models embed a number of weak shortwave troughs within
moderately strong westerlies crossing the Central Rockies and Central
Plains Wednesday night through Thursday night. In fact this pattern will
continue into the weekend. Elevated convection is the end result as
these shortwaves lift the unstable air above the boundary and
generate scattered convection. Could see a couple additional rounds of
convection. Temperatures will likely be a tad below average as we`ll
be under easterly flow from high pressure.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A quasi-zonal pattern will remain quite active through the end of
the extended forecast period. A number of shortwave troughs will
translate through the flow and will bring a few chances for heavy
rainfall through the beginning of the weekend. One round of precip will
develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday morning. Another
convective complex will develop Friday and continue into Saturday
with the potential for more heavy rainfall as models forecasting
precipitable water values of 1 to over 2 inches across the general region
With the Gulf wide open, do not see any issues with moisture return
during this period, however, exact timing of these systems still
remains in question.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Tricky TAF period with ongoing convection across NE, IA, and northern
MO which is progged by the hi-res HRRR model to drop southeastward
across NW Missouri down through east-central Missouri. This convection
appears to be following a warm frontal boundary. Isolated convection
developing near the terminals is currently moving northeastward
towards this front. As the cold pool continues to strengthen along
this warm front, the front may begin to sag southward and allow the
southwest end of the convective complex to near the terminals.
Confidence is low on how far south this complex will extend, thus
will monitor trends of the complex and amend as necessary. For now
have left mention of VCTS for the terminals for isolated activity.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ025-102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ031>033-
038>040-043>046-054.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>030-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cutter
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
345 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE TSTM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS BRUSHING WRN NEB. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
TRIGGERING THE TSTM COMPLEXES WILL OCCASIONALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS NCNTL NEB HOWEVER THIS
RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
RAIN AND OR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS NEXT
TUESDAY WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A STORMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. NEXT WAVE IS CROSSING THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND FIRING STORMS OUT IN
WYOMING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS EVENING
AS IT DRIFTS EAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONGEAL INTO AN MCS
THAT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA/NEB WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO
USHER IN BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PRECIP WATER AN INCH
TO 1.25 INCHES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1K J/KG WILL BE AIDED
BY THE NOSE OF A 25 KT LL JET TO HELP SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY. ALL IN
ALL THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.
A SECOND WAVE OVER N CENTRAL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA. THE
MCS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IF NOT EXITING INTO KS. BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS LIKELY.
STILL HAVING A COOL AIRMASS AND WITH MORNING CLOUDS...HIGHS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TANDEM UPPER LEVEL COLD POOLS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT
NRN STREAM ENERGY THRU THE HIGH PLAINS. DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF
THESE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE WRN ZONES WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THRU THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL POSITION THE BEST RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND INTO
WYOMING. THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
PROVIDING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
KS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY TABLE SCRAPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WRN
AND NCNTL NEB AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES ARE CONCERNED.
BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
HOLDING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE 60S. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND
OF THE GFS...SREF...NAM AND ECM FOR POPS. THE GEM WAS THE EASTERN
MOST SOLN AND APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLN GIVEN THE PATTERN
FAVORING HIGH PLAINS STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE RAP MODEL GIVES INSIGHT
TO THIS BIAS AS IT IS WEST OF THE NAM SOLN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS MCS
FCST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FCST AREA ACROSS KS AND ERN COLO. THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD KEEP THE FCST AREA GENERALLY COOL
AND STABLE AT THE SFC. SO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS 5 PERCENT OR
LESS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SWRN
NEB WOULD BE THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN WY/ERN COLO AND MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A FAIRLY
DECENT NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NRN NEB SUNDAY. THE GEM
WAS WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS CHANCE OF RAIN. WINDS ALOFT RELATIVE
TO THE INSTABILITY IN THE GFS AND ECM SOLNS APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NEB.
ANOTHER PERHAPS MORE SUBSTANTIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEAR IN THE GFS AND ECM INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KT
AND THE GFS SHOWS THE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER BETWEEN 30 AND 40 WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -10C. THE ECM SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1500J/KG AND
THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...WELL BELOW
YESTERDAYS MEGA-SEVERE EVENT. STILL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY OR FEATURES ISOLATED POPS.
SOME VERY COOL AIR WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA. H700MB TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR 0C ACROSS NRN NEB SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS SUNDAY TO
THE 60S WITH LOW IN THE 40S IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER...HEIGHTS
ALOFT RISE AND MOISTURE RETURNS IN PREPARATION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON THE PESKY MVFR CIGS WILL BE LIFTING TO VFR
CONDITIONS. A DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IMPACT AT KVTN FIRST THEN KLBF SEVERAL HOURS
LATER. WILL LIKELY NEED TO HAVE TEMPO GROUPS OVERNIGHT AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS TIMING/STRENGTH BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...HOWEVER WILL
THE PERIOD STILL IN THE PLANNING SECTION WENT WITH THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF IMPACT FOR THE THUNERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
PLAN TO MONITOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS TIMING
STILL UNCERTAIN.
BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS SOME STRATUS IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AT LEAST MODELS IN AGREEMENT THERE.
LESS AGREEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB AND WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THE KVTN TERMINAL...FOR NOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
RECENT RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN
CONTINUES TO CAUSE RISES TO THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IN COLORADO.
LATEST CALCULATIONS ARE RESULTING IN RISES OF THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TO AROUND BANK FULL EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER AREA WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE PEAK FLOW. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING THE CREST TO ROSCOE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE SOUTH PLATTE AT NORTH PLATTE WILL ALSO BE SEEING A
NOTICABLE RISE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1237 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH VERY WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REACHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO
THE FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY-AFTERNOON UPDATE. THE CUMULUS FIELD IS
ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE SEABREEZE IS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW UP
IN SOUTHPORT BUT NOT YET AT MYRTLE BEACH OR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WHERE
WESTERLY (OFFSHORE) WINDS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...
THE CAROLINAS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WHICH HAS A
WESTWARD EXTENSION ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST
STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A HOT RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS IS PRODUCING A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR US. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM MHX
AND CHS INDICATED MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A GOOD DEAL OF DRY
AIR ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO
RISE TO +17C BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INLAND FROM THE BEACHES.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED VERY GOOD AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE WITH THIS MID-MORNING UPDATE. I HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST
DEWPOINTS DOWN BY A COUPLE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM FLORENCE...MARION AND WHITEVILLE
NORTHWARD AS DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD TAP SOME OF THE DRY AIR
ALOFT AND ENTRAIN IT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DILUTING THE MOISTURE
WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR QUITE SMALL
TODAY OWING TO THE WARM DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. IF A RENEGADE SHOWER
WERE TO DEVELOP LOOK FOR THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY TO BE RESPONSIBLE.
THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS ALSO TARGET THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PEE
DEE REGION MAINLY SOUTH OF FLORENCE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
MAY REMAIN HIGHEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
APPEARS TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT.
WESTERLY (OFFSHORE) WINDS BLOWING THIS MORNING WILL DELAY THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY`S INLAND MOVEMENT. THE BEACHES SHOULD SEE WINDS
TURN ONSHORE BY NOON...BUT IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO MAKE ANY APPRECIABLE PROGRESS INLAND EXCEPT ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST WHERE THE NORTHWARD-MOVING SEABREEZE WON`T
HAVE TO FIGHT WESTERLY WINDS HEAD-ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA THEN
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCREASINGLY
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LEADING TO AN ENHANCED CHC OF
CONVECTION FOR THURS AFTN INTO THURS NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25 TO 35 KTS OUT OF THE SW AND VEERING AROUND TO
THE WEST BY THURS EVE WITH A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SFC BASED CAPE INCREASES UP TO
1500 J/KG WITH INCREASED SHEAR HEADING INTO THURS EVE AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MAY SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. WILL MAINTAIN THE GREATEST POPS LATER ON
THURSDAY INTO THURS NIGHT.
THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST BY FRI MORNING BUT WILL SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WITH VERY BROAD TROUGH PRODUCING MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH FRI. IT SHOULD MAKE IT JUST TO THE SOUTH BY FRI
AFTN BUT MAY PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY AS
PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW RIDES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REACH DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MAY SEE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER GET DISPLACED TO GA/SC BY SATURDAY BUT MAY SEE FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPS REACHING UP INTO THE
90S MOST PLACES ON THURS AHEAD OF FRONT AND REMAINING UP NEAR 90
WITH ONLY A SLOW DROP IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AS FRONT DROPS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE UP AROUND 70 THURS
NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PCP AND SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID
60S OVER NORTHERN TIER AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR MAKES ITS
WAY IN BUT NEAR 70 SC COAST FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER OR AT LEAST INCREASED
CLOUDINESS THROUGH A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REACH DOWN FROM THE NORTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND GFS SHOWS PCP
WATER VALUES DOWN CLOSER TO 1.25 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST TO THE SOUTH WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. EXPECT
SHWRS/TSTMS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
SHOULD BE CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA AND ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO KEEP CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF MORE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RUN AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE 80S. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH...DEWPOINT TEMPS SHOULD DROP ABOUT 5 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOW TO DROP INTO THE MID
60S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUES WITH
INCREASING CHC OF CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 4-5KFT CU BEGINNING TO FILL IN OVER OUR CWA.
STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SHOWERS TODAY AS MID-LEVEL INVERSION AND
DRY AIR ALOFT LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. W-SW WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL
BECOME S-SW 10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST AFTER 18Z AS THE SEA BREEZE
SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE GRADIENT WILL
BECOME PINCHED TONIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...SO SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE
TAFS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS AN EARLIER PCPN EVENT ON
THURSDAY...SO HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AROUND 13Z INLAND/15Z COASTAL.
HOWEVER...THE BEST PCPN CHANCES WILL BE JUST AFTER THE VALID PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE JUST STARTING TO
BACK AROUND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR SOUTHPORT/CAPE FEAR...BUT
WESTERLY WINDS STILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. AS INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE
APPROACHING 90 LOOK FOR THE SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...
THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST. NORTH OF THIS RIDGE WE HAVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH SPEEDS
CURRENTLY 10-15 KT. INTENSE SOLAR HEATING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD PUSH AIR TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS AT THE BEACHES TO 15+
DEGREES...WITH A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION INCREASING TO NEARLY 20 KT
NEARSHORE. GUSTS SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
SECTIONS OF THE COAST THAT RUN NORTH-SOUTH LIKE THE GRAND STRAND AND
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET WITH A SIGNIFICANT 11-12
SECOND EASTERLY SWELL COMPONENT WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL SEA HEIGHTS MAY BUILD
TOWARD 3-4 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANGES WITH THIS MID-MORNING
UPDATE WERE MINOR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE
THURS INTO FRI AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE N-NW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
SW WINDS REACHING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
25 KNOTS NEAR SHORE IN AFTN SEABREEZE. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PUSH SEAS UP INTO SCA CRITERIA LATE THURS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 4-5 FEET EARLY
THURS TO 5-6 FEET BY LATE THURS.
COLD FRONT MAY LINGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH FRI. THIS MAY
CAUSE VARIABLE WINDS ESPECIALLY AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS ON FRI.
OVERALL EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SHIFT AROUND TO
THE N-NE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP DOWN TO 2
TO 3 FT BY FRI NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REACH DOWN INTO LOCAL
WATERS BEHIND AN ALMOST STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER GA/SC ON
SATURDAY. EXPECT NE/E WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AFTN SEA
BREEZE WILL BE ENHANCED BY ON SHORE FLOW PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS NEAR
SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1002 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH VERY WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REACHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CAROLINAS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WHICH HAS A WESTWARD EXTENSION ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND THE GULF COAST STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A HOT RIDGE ACROSS
TEXAS IS PRODUCING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR US. MORNING UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND CHS INDICATED MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A
GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO
RISE TO +17C BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INLAND FROM THE BEACHES.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED VERY GOOD AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE WITH THIS MID-MORNING UPDATE. I HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST
DEWPOINTS DOWN BY A COUPLE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM FLORENCE...MARION AND WHITEVILLE
NORTHWARD AS DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD TAP SOME OF THE DRY AIR
ALOFT AND ENTRAIN IT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DILUTING THE MOISTURE
WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR QUITE SMALL
TODAY OWING TO THE WARM DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. IF A RENEGADE SHOWER
WERE TO DEVELOP LOOK FOR THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY TO BE RESPONSIBLE.
THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS ALSO TARGET THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PEE
DEE REGION MAINLY SOUTH OF FLORENCE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
MAY REMAIN HIGHEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
APPEARS TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT.
WESTERLY (OFFSHORE) WINDS BLOWING THIS MORNING WILL DELAY THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY`S INLAND MOVEMENT. THE BEACHES SHOULD SEE WINDS
TURN ONSHORE BY NOON...BUT IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO MAKE ANY APPRECIABLE PROGRESS INLAND EXCEPT ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST WHERE THE NORTHWARD-MOVING SEABREEZE WON`T
HAVE TO FIGHT WESTERLY WINDS HEAD-ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA THEN
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCREASINGLY
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LEADING TO AN ENHANCED CHC OF
CONVECTION FOR THURS AFTN INTO THURS NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25 TO 35 KTS OUT OF THE SW AND VEERING AROUND TO
THE WEST BY THURS EVE WITH A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SFC BASED CAPE INCREASES UP TO
1500 J/KG WITH INCREASED SHEAR HEADING INTO THURS EVE AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MAY SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. WILL MAINTAIN THE GREATEST POPS LATER ON
THURSDAY INTO THURS NIGHT.
THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST BY FRI MORNING BUT WILL SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WITH VERY BROAD TROUGH PRODUCING MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH FRI. IT SHOULD MAKE IT JUST TO THE SOUTH BY FRI
AFTN BUT MAY PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY AS
PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW RIDES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REACH DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MAY SEE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER GET DISPLACED TO GA/SC BY SATURDAY BUT MAY SEE FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPS REACHING UP INTO THE
90S MOST PLACES ON THURS AHEAD OF FRONT AND REMAINING UP NEAR 90
WITH ONLY A SLOW DROP IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AS FRONT DROPS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE UP AROUND 70 THURS
NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PCP AND SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID
60S OVER NORTHERN TIER AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR MAKES ITS
WAY IN BUT NEAR 70 SC COAST FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER OR AT LEAST INCREASED
CLOUDINESS THROUGH A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REACH DOWN FROM THE NORTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND GFS SHOWS PCP
WATER VALUES DOWN CLOSER TO 1.25 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST TO THE SOUTH WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. EXPECT
SHWRS/TSTMS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
SHOULD BE CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA AND ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO KEEP CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF MORE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RUN AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE 80S. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH...DEWPOINT TEMPS SHOULD DROP ABOUT 5 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOW TO DROP INTO THE MID
60S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUES WITH
INCREASING CHC OF CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME CIRRUS
WILL STREAM OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS EARLY. DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL BEGIN FILLING IN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT TODAY...ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED INVERSION AROUND 625 MB.
THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION PCPN IN THE TAFS AS THESE UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS...WHICH SHOW LITTLE TO NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. W-SW WINDS AOB 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME S-SW 10-15 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMS AFTER 18Z AS A STRONG SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-10
KTS PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG
FORMATION DESPITE THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST. NORTH OF THIS
RIDGE WE HAVE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WITH SPEEDS CURRENTLY 10-15 KT. INTENSE SOLAR HEATING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD PUSH AIR TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS AT THE BEACHES TO
15+ DEGREES...WITH A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION INCREASING TO NEARLY 20
KT NEARSHORE. GUSTS SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
SECTIONS OF THE COAST THAT RUN NORTH-SOUTH LIKE THE GRAND STRAND AND
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET WITH A SIGNIFICANT 11-12
SECOND EASTERLY SWELL COMPONENT WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL SEA HEIGHTS MAY BUILD
TOWARD 3-4 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANGES WITH THIS MID-MORNING
UPDATE WERE MINOR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE
THURS INTO FRI AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE N-NW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
SW WINDS REACHING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
25 KNOTS NEAR SHORE IN AFTN SEABREEZE. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PUSH SEAS UP INTO SCA CRITERIA LATE THURS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 4-5 FEET EARLY
THURS TO 5-6 FEET BY LATE THURS.
COLD FRONT MAY LINGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH FRI. THIS MAY
CAUSE VARIABLE WINDS ESPECIALLY AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS ON FRI.
OVERALL EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SHIFT AROUND TO
THE N-NE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP DOWN TO 2
TO 3 FT BY FRI NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REACH DOWN INTO LOCAL
WATERS BEHIND AN ALMOST STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER GA/SC ON
SATURDAY. EXPECT NE/E WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AFTN SEA
BREEZE WILL BE ENHANCED BY ON SHORE FLOW PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS NEAR
SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
950 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
A RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT RACING AHEAD OF A LINE OF
DISSIPATING CONVECTION ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS STARTING
TO LOSE ITS STEAM THIS EVENING. IT WAS GENERATING GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH OVER THE LAST HOUR. WIND GUSTS ARE NOW AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER
THE GUST FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THE WEAKENING TRENDS...WILL
FOREGO ANY ADDITION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN.
SHIFTING FOCUS WESTWARD...AN AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE
INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE THE EVENING IS OVER.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR WEAKENS THIS ACTIVITY TO SHOWERS AFTER
06Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CASE ANY STORMS STRENGTHEN.
FOR NOW HIGHLIGHTED THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY SOUTHWEST IN THE
HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BELCOURT SOUTHWEST TO
WASHBURN AND INTO GLEN ULLEN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AROUND 30 MPH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 03Z. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS (CAPE AROUND 400 J/KG) ARE TOO LOW FOR THESE STORMS TO
ACHIEVE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STATUS THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG A THETA-E BOUNDARY TO SET
UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN 80+ KNOT JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO
ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CANADA AND BECOME SITUATED
OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA/NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHOULD GENERATE LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL ONLY INDICATE RAIN SHOWER CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO SHOWERS FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA FOR FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR TIOGA IN EASTERN
WILLIAMS COUNTY TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
BE WIDESPREAD. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RANGED FROM 250-1000
J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE WEAK...AND MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC INDICATES LITTLE OR NO
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE IS
NEAR A RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THUS HAVE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 25-30 PERCENT ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LATER TONIGHT...MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
UTAH IS PROGGED TO ENTER WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER
MONTANA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT`S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SET UP AN OVERRUNNING PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST - BUT THINKING A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY EXPECTING SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FEW
SCATTERED BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION AS THE BELT OF WESTERLIES IS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH FORCING/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CONCENTRATED MAINLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP SOME HIGH POPS IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF ND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
CHANCES QUICKLY TAPERING OFF INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FORCING
MOVES FARTHER EAST. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT
SHOWERS/VIRGA DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH MODELS
PORTRAYING SOME WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY...MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S
ACCOMPANYING HIGH PRESSURE.
NEXT UPPER LEVEL S/WV TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE.
ACTIVE FLOW THEREAFTER WITH SEVERAL MORE S/WV`S MOVING THROUGH IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GENERATING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY-THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW UNTIL MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WHEN MID RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A WARMING TREND AND
OUR FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 04Z. HOWEVER...THE
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS VFR.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTHWEST (KDIK) AFTER 06Z AND
SLOWLY SPREAD EAST INTO KBIS BY 12Z...AND FINALLY INTO KJMS BY
18Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1215 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
REFLECTIVITY AS OF 05 UTC SHOWS THE LINE OF STORMS IN EASTERN
MONTANA DIMINISHING AND SLOWING A BIT. THE ENTIRETY OF THE LINE IS
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND WOULD NOT EVEN BE CONSIDERED STRONG AT
THIS POINT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST AS THE LINE IS BREAKING APART NEAR THE
MISSOURI. FOR THIS REASON LOWERED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
A BIT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AROUND 30 MPH
OVER EASTERN MONTANA. IF THIS LINE MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE
AND TRAJECTORY...IT SHOULD CROSS THE MT/ND BORDER RIGHT AT
MIDNIGHT CDT...OR 11 PM MDT. AS OF THIS WRITING...THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS LINE IS THE ONLY PART GENERATING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STORMS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
ARE BECOMING RIGHT-MOVERS AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...SHOULD
ARC INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER EXTREME WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 05Z...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHED POPS AFTER 07Z AS THE
LINE IS PROGGED TO LOSE STEAM AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO GET A SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WIND REPORT WITH THESE
STORMS. HIGHLIGHTED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINING
SOUTHWEST OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ARE KEEPING THE LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AT BEST.
THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WANE THIS
EVENING.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THE LATEST HRRR PROGS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
MT/ND BORDER. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
AT MAINTAINING THIS CONVECTION WHILE THE GFS/GEM ONLY INCREASE
POPS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING WEST. HOWEVER...CANNOT
IGNORE THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS COMPLETELY FIZZLING OUT THIS
CONVECTION WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT TRENDS AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. AS OF 2 PM CDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BEST INSTABILITY LIES ACROSS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE WITH LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT INDICATIVE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SO FAR
TODAY. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL HAIL CAPE ALSO A BIT MARGINAL. SO
CURRENT CONCERNS LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR THE
EVENING WHICH WILL BE A FRINGE AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER FAIRLY SHALLOW
AND MAINLY FORWARD MOVING MCS`S ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN 1 TO 3 HOURS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHOULD BE BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. CONTINUED COOL PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TYPICAL FOR JUNE CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH THE BELT OF WESTERLIES MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG TO SEVERE) WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DECENT INSTABILITY IS
DEPICTED BY GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR STILL LOOKS MINIMAL AT OR
BELOW 30KTS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.
A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA...WHILE WE REMAIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP A RISK OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING SO
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES
IF ANY.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ENDING PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S.
WE REMAIN COOL (HIGHS 65-75) AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
EASTERN MONTANA COULD IMPACT KISN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IMPACTING KDIK BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AROUND 18Z
AT KDIK...KISN...KBIS...AND KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
337 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
245 PM UPDATE...
FRESHENED UP GRIDS TO REFLECT TORNADO WATCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL VALID CONCERNING FORECAST THINKING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
VERY BUSY SHIFT HERE THIS MORNING. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
HARD TO DISCERN ACROSS CWA BUT FEEL IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS S OH INTO C WV PER LATEST RUC LOW LEVEL THETA E AXIS.
BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE ALONG GRADIENT AND BECOMING SFC
BASED. THIS WILL SLIDE INTO PORTIONS OF SE OH/NE KY AND W WV OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH ISOLATED SVR THREAT ON COLD POOL PROPAGATION.
COMPLICATED FORECAST HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BLOWOFF FROM DECAYING MCS OVER W KY THIS MORNING WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF SFC HEATING C AND E KY INTO WV TO AID IN INSTABILITY. FEEL
THE RAP/HRRR HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS AND USED THESE AS A BASE
FOR THE FORECAST. THINKING A FEW ROUNDS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOW ALONG VORT LOBE...SLATED 21 TO 01Z TIME FRAME. SEE SPC TXT FOR
A MORE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION REGARDING SLIGHT RISK AND SVR THREAT
OVER E OH/E KY AND C WV AS WE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
ASSESSMENT.
GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THIS EVE AND IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NE KY/C AND S WV/SE OH UNTIL 09Z...ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWING OUTLINE
OF MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUED EARLIER BY WPC.
HAVE FRONT SAGGING S THRU AREA OVERNIGHT AND SLOWING SOME ON
THURSDAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE SW OF AREA FOR TOMORROW WITH SOME FRESH
AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE STORMS THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA WITH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER DYNAMICS TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS FAR SOUTH FRIDAY. CHOSE A MIDDLE OF ROAD SCENARIO AS
SOME MODELS KEEP RAIN SOUTH OF US...WHILE OTHER BRING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH A WARMING TREND SATURDAY UNDER LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING ON A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN AS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT RETURN OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERHAPS BY
TUESDAY...THE FRONT MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW SOME COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION WITH GREATER COVERAGE IN THE 21 TO 00Z TIME FRAME
WITH SOME STORMS STRONG TO SVR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY
FOR THE S TAF SITES TO INCLUDE KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. HAVE SOME 1 TO 2 HR
IFR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION WITH SOME GUSTS FOR
KHTS/KCRW. HAVE SOME MVFR/IFR NORTHERN SITES FOR MAINLY DOWNPOURS
WITH THINKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS S TERMINALS.
SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBY FG
BUT FLOW SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FG. FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OVERNIGHT...TAKING INTO MORNING TO CLEAR SW VA. ANY LOW STRATUS WILL
QUICKLY SCT OUT IN THE MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN FLAT LOW END VFR CU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEGREE OF IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
COULD VARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF A LARGE BOWING LINE DEVELOPS
LATER TODAY...THAT WOULD LIKELY SPEED UP THE TIMING...ESPECIALLY
DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL AS INCREASE THE WIND THREAT. TIMING AND EXTENT
OF POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS WILL VARY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>008-013>018-
024>029.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
315 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
245 PM UPDATE...
FRESHENED UP GRIDS TO REFLECT TORNADO WATCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL VALID CONCERNING FORECAST THINKING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
VERY BUSY SHIFT HERE THIS MORNING. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
HARD TO DISCERN ACROSS CWA BUT FEEL IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS S OH INTO C WV PER LATEST RUC LOW LEVEL THETA E AXIS.
BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE ALONG GRADIENT AND BECOMING SFC
BASED. THIS WILL SLIDE INTO PORTIONS OF SE OH/NE KY AND W WV OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH ISOLATED SVR THREAT ON COLD POOL PROPAGATION.
COMPLICATED FORECAST HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BLOWOFF FROM DECAYING MCS OVER W KY THIS MORNING WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF SFC HEATING C AND E KY INTO WV TO AID IN INSTABILITY. FEEL
THE RAP/HRRR HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS AND USED THESE AS A BASE
FOR THE FORECAST. THINKING A FEW ROUNDS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOW ALONG VORT LOBE...SLATED 21 TO 01Z TIME FRAME. SEE SPC TXT FOR
A MORE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION REGARDING SLIGHT RISK AND SVR THREAT
OVER E OH/E KY AND C WV AS WE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
ASSESSMENT.
GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THIS EVE AND IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NE KY/C AND S WV/SE OH UNTIL 09Z...ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWING OUTLINE
OF MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUED EARLIER BY WPC.
HAVE FRONT SAGGING S THRU AREA OVERNIGHT AND SLOWING SOME ON
THURSDAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE SW OF AREA FOR TOMORROW WITH SOME FRESH
AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM WITH A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED FROM NORTHERN WV SOUTHWEST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND
INTO EASTERN KY...SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
AMPLE MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV AND OUR EASTERN KY/VA
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH ANY SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OVER FOR MOST BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING 500J CAPE IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHEASTERN MTN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE...CANT RULE OUT A SVR GUST WITH ANY ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS THAT AREA...EVEN THEN WESTERLY 850 FLOW WILL BE
WEAKENING TO THE 30KT RANGE...SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BEING SWEPT ESE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE
DRY OUT NICELY BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WSW AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FOR NOW WENT PRIMARILY WITH NAM SOLUTION AND CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COALFIELDS...BUT DID DOWNPLAY CONVECTION POTENTIAL
WITH DOUBTS IN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING THAT FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC CLOSELY WITH THE LOW AND COLD FRONT RIDING THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WHICH BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE SHORT WAVE AT THIS DISTANT TIME DOES HAVE A BIT MORE
AMPLITUDE WHICH WILL LIKELY DRAG THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A GOOD WARMUP AND MOISTURE
INFLUX AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO. SO...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS
DURING MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION WITH GREATER COVERAGE IN THE 21 TO 00Z TIME FRAME
WITH SOME STORMS STRONG TO SVR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY
FOR THE S TAF SITES TO INCLUDE KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. HAVE SOME 1 TO 2 HR
IFR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION WITH SOME GUSTS FOR
KHTS/KCRW. HAVE SOME MVFR/IFR NORTHERN SITES FOR MAINLY DOWNPOURS
WITH THINKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS S TERMINALS.
SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBY FG
BUT FLOW SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FG. FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OVERNIGHT...TAKING INTO MORNING TO CLEAR SW VA. ANY LOW STRATUS WILL
QUICKLY SCT OUT IN THE MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN FLAT LOW END VFR CU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEGREE OF IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
COULD VARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF A LARGE BOWING LINE DEVELOPS
LATER TODAY...THAT WOULD LIKELY SPEED UP THE TIMING...ESPECIALLY
DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL AS INCREASE THE WIND THREAT. TIMING AND EXTENT
OF POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS WILL VARY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>008-013>018-
024>029.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
136 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION TODAY...ENDING LATE THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND IT WILL BRING A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS TO THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING WARMING CLOUD TOPS WITH DECAYING
MCS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
WE CONTINUE TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...BUT OVERALL THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND IN THE REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR OVER THE PAST HOUR.
BASED ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE SITUATED
FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OHIO ATTM AND THIS LOOSELY
CORRELATES WITH A SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION NOT NECESSARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS REMNANTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT
EFFECTS THE DECAYING MCS WILL HAVE ON THE WARM FRONT AS THE RAIN
COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH MAY DELAY THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM
FRONT HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEIR AFFECT ON SOLAR INSOLATION. BOTH THE
12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP ARE KEEPING THE BETTER ML CAPES...IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BETTER JET DYNAMICS WILL BE PIVOTING
INTO OUR ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS WILL LIKELY HELP
COMPENSATE FOR SOME OF THE LOWER INSTABILITIES.
MOST OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH IT THEN PUSHING SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE CURRENT SET UP...THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FA. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE INCREASING
JET...THINK THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET SOME BETTER INSTABILITIES INTO THE
AREA...ROTATING STORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. PWS WILL PUSH UP INTO THE 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. WHILE THE HI RES MODELS DISAGREE WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...THEY ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ONCE IT
DEVELOPS SO HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FAIRLY RAPID
TURNOFF WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. EVENING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THAT
FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY AND HELP CONTINUE TO
PUSH DRIER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING IN TO THE
50S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE ONE OF THOSE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING
MOISTURE...LIFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT/COLD FROM TANDEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT
POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO SOME TIMING ISSUES.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH PCPN COMING TO AN END
BY MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN INDIANA WITH A TRAILING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SYSTEM
EXITS AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
SHRA/TSRA. THE SHRA AND CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF TAF SITES
FROM 22Z TO 01Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH WITH
FROPA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT IN THIS EVENING AND ALLOW
FOR MVFR CIGS UNTIL DRIER AIR WORKS TOWARD 12Z. EXPECT SOME LATE
MORNING AND AFTN CU IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ077>082-
088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...PADGETT/SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1246 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...MOVES NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
1245 PM UPDATE...
VERY BUSY SHIFT HERE THIS MORNING. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
HARD TO DISCERN ACROSS CWA BUT FEEL IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS S OH INTO C WV PER LATEST RUC LOW LEVEL THETA E AXIS.
BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE ALONG GRADIENT AND BECOMING SFC
BASED. THIS WILL SLIDE INTO PORTIONS OF SE OH/NE KY AND W WV OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH ISOLATED SVR THREAT ON COLD POOL PROPAGATION.
COMPLICATED FORECAST HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BLOWOFF FROM DECAYING MCS OVER W KY THIS MORNING WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF SFC HEATING C AND E KY INTO WV TO AID IN INSTABILITY. FEEL
THE RAP/HRRR HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS AND USED THESE AS A BASE
FOR THE FORECAST. THINKING A FEW ROUNDS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOW ALONG VORT LOBE...SLATED 21 TO 01Z TIME FRAME. SEE SPC TXT FOR
A MORE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION REGARDING SLIGHT RISK AND SVR THREAT
OVER E OH/E KY AND C WV AS WE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
ASSESSMENT.
GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THIS EVE AND IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NE KY/C AND S WV/SE OH UNTIL 09Z...ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWING OUTLINE
OF MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUED EARLIER BY WPC.
HAVE FRONT SAGGING S THRU AREA OVERNIGHT AND SLOWING SOME ON
THURSDAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE SW OF AREA FOR TOMORROW WITH SOME FRESH
AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM WITH A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED FROM NORTHERN WV SOUTHWEST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND
INTO EASTERN KY...SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
AMPLE MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV AND OUR EASTERN KY/VA
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH ANY SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OVER FOR MOST BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING 500J CAPE IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHEASTERN MTN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE...CANT RULE OUT A SVR GUST WITH ANY ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS THAT AREA...EVEN THEN WESTERLY 850 FLOW WILL BE
WEAKENING TO THE 30KT RANGE...SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BEING SWEPT ESE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE
DRY OUT NICELY BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WSW AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FOR NOW WENT PRIMARILY WITH NAM SOLUTION AND CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COALFIELDS...BUT DID DOWNPLAY CONVECTION POTENTIAL
WITH DOUBTS IN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING THAT FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC CLOSELY WITH THE LOW AND COLD FRONT RIDING THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WHICH BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE SHORT WAVE AT THIS DISTANT TIME DOES HAVE A BIT MORE
AMPLITUDE WHICH WILL LIKELY DRAG THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A GOOD WARMUP AND MOISTURE
INFLUX AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO. SO...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS
DURING MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU AND MIST FIRST THING THIS MORNING DISSIPATES
WITHIN FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF FCST.
THE COLD FRONT THAT TRIGGERED THE THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING WILL
RETURN N AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY CARRY MVFR...LOCAL IFR...CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK N OF THE AREA TONIGHT...DRAGGING THE FRONT
BACK DOWN AS A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WILL BE QUITE STRONG...LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE GUSTS OF 40
TO 45 KTS IN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS...BUT SEVERE GUSTS...50 KTS
OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CARRY
LIFR CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE ACTION SHOULD BE 01Z-05Z THU...LATEST
E.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER 06Z THU...AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL START TO BRING AN END TO THE ACTION ALTOGETHER BY 12Z
THU...AS IT PUSHES INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT S TO SW
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND THEN TO NW AND A BIT BRISK BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD 12Z THU. LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SW THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
MODERATE SW TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT TO MODERATE N ALOFT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z THU.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEGREE OF IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
COULD VARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF A LARGE BOWING LINE DEVELOPS
LATER TODAY...THAT WOULD LIKELY SPEED UP THE TIMING...ESPECIALLY
DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL AS INCREASE THE WIND THREAT. TIMING AND EXTENT
OF POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS WILL VARY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND STRATUS THU MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>008-013>018-
024>029.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1009 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION TODAY...ENDING LATE THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND IT WILL BRING A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS TO THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING WARMING CLOUD TOPS WITH DECAYING
MCS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
WE CONTINUE TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...BUT OVERALL THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND IN THE REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR OVER THE PAST HOUR.
BASED ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE SITUATED
FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OHIO ATTM AND THIS LOOSELY
CORRELATES WITH A SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION NOT NECESSARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS REMNANTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT
EFFECTS THE DECAYING MCS WILL HAVE ON THE WARM FRONT AS THE RAIN
COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH MAY DELAY THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM
FRONT HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEIR AFFECT ON SOLAR INSOLATION. BOTH THE
12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP ARE KEEPING THE BETTER ML CAPES...IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BETTER JET DYNAMICS WILL BE PIVOTING
INTO OUR ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS WILL LIKELY HELP
COMPENSATE FOR SOME OF THE LOWER INSTABILITIES.
MOST OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH IT THEN PUSHING SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE CURRENT SET UP...THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FA. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE INCREASING
JET...THINK THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET SOME BETTER INSTABILITIES INTO THE
AREA...ROTATING STORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. PWS WILL PUSH UP INTO THE 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. WHILE THE HI RES MODELS DISAGREE WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...THEY ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ONCE IT
DEVELOPS SO HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FAIRLY RAPID
TURNOFF WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. EVENING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THAT
FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY AND HELP CONTINUE TO
PUSH DRIER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING IN TO THE
50S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE ONE OF THOSE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING
MOISTURE...LIFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT/COLD FROM TANDEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT
POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO SOME TIMING ISSUES.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH PCPN COMING TO AN END
BY MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR TO LIFR FOG IS AFFECTING THE SRN TAFS WHERE THE DEWPOINTS
REMAINED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. THE FOG SHOULD BREAK
UP QUICKLY AS SUNSHINE BEGINS THE MIXING PROCESS.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS INDIANA HAS A MAINLY EASTERLY COMPONENT.
LATEST TIMING HAS IT REACHING THE WRN TAFS IN THE 13 -14Z TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF TS AT THE TAFS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON COULD POSSIBLY BE SEVERE. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL RACE E TONIGHT FINALLY DRAGGING THE FRONT
THRU THE TAFS WHILE BRINGING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP POST FRONTAL TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
943 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN OK
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO CONT TO
DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD MOVE
IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AFFECTING PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT
THINKING ALONG WITH SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS AND SKY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
AVIATION...
MOIST AND UNSTBLE BUT CAPPED AMS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GENLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. GENLY WILL GO ALONG
WITH SOME OF THE HI RES MODEL DATA WHICH SHOWS MCS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL GENLY USE THAT TIMING
FOR THE TEMPO TSRA GROUPS. SOME RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN
THE MORNING THEN BECOMING GENLY VFR AGAIN AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY.
PREV DISCUSSIION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED INTERACTION BETWEEN A SURFACE FRONT...CAPPING
INVERSION...AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO THE WEST...WILL LEAD TO GREAT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SEEMINGLY THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR OUTLOOK. IT GENERATES
STORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...THEN BRINGS THEM
EAST WHILE CONVERTING THEM INTO AN MCS. IF THIS HAPPENS...MOST OF
OUR OKLAHOMA COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE RAIN...AND POSSIBLY STRONG
WINDS.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAKS ARE LIKELY. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE TIMING AND LOCATION. CHANCES DO
RISE...HOWEVER...OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVES PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA ON
TUESDAY...PROBABLY BRINGING A RELATIVELY MILD AND DRY DAY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 91 73 88 / 50 40 40 40
HOBART OK 72 98 72 91 / 40 20 40 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 100 74 100 / 30 10 20 20
GAGE OK 67 91 69 83 / 50 40 70 40
PONCA CITY OK 72 85 72 84 / 60 50 70 60
DURANT OK 74 94 73 92 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.AVIATION...
MOIST AND UNSTBLE BUT CAPPED AMS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GENLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. GENLY WILL GO ALONG
WITH SOME OF THE HI RES MODEL DATA WHICH SHOWS MCS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL GENLY USE THAT TIMING
FOR THE TEMPO TSRA GROUPS. SOME RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN
THE MORNING THEN BECOMING GENLY VFR AGAIN AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSIION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED INTERACTION BETWEEN A SURFACE FRONT...CAPPING
INVERSION...AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO THE WEST...WILL LEAD TO GREAT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SEEMINGLY THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR OUTLOOK. IT GENERATES
STORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...THEN BRINGS THEM
EAST WHILE CONVERTING THEM INTO AN MCS. IF THIS HAPPENS...MOST OF
OUR OKLAHOMA COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE RAIN...AND POSSIBLY STRONG
WINDS.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAKS ARE LIKELY. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE TIMING AND LOCATION. CHANCES DO
RISE...HOWEVER...OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVES PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA ON
TUESDAY...PROBABLY BRINGING A RELATIVELY MILD AND DRY DAY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 91 73 88 / 50 40 40 40
HOBART OK 72 98 72 91 / 40 20 40 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 100 74 100 / 30 10 20 20
GAGE OK 67 91 69 83 / 50 40 70 40
PONCA CITY OK 71 85 72 84 / 50 50 70 60
DURANT OK 74 94 73 92 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
845 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ORGANIZING IN THE
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
MIDSOUTH MAKING ARRIVAL TIME DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. WILL KEEP
GENERIC 20-40 CHANCE POPS GOING TROUGH THE NIGHT. ABUNDANT GROUND
MOISTURE...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIGHT WINDS
MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT BOW ECHO THE CURRENT AIRMASS HAS BEEN
WELL WORKED OVER...THUS HAVE LOWERED THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT FROM
LIKELY TO CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH.
JAB
&&
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED JUST NORTH OF I-40...WITH
STRONG BOW ECHO TREKKING EAST AND BISECTING THE BOUNDARY. NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF TREES POWER LINES, POWER OUTAGES, AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
HAS BEEN GENERATED BY THE BOW IN ARKANSAS AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS
THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY 5PM. OTHER CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS GENERATED OVER 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES ANTICIPATED AS THE LINE GOES
THROUGH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A STRONG CAP AT 700MB
HAS KEPT THE BOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE STATE
LINE...THOUGH EXTREME NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MAY SEE SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS. IN THE BOW`S WAKE...MORE UPSTREAM CONVECTION GROWTH IS
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...WITH THE
OTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREATS LIKELY TO DIMINISH.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...MODELS AGREE THAT THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE RING OF FIRE ALOFT WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY BISECTING THE
AREA. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE
PROVIDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OF WHICH SOME
WILL BE STRONG OR SEVERE. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES TO MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER INTO THE WEEKEND. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HAVE NUMEROUS SMALL FLUCTUATIONS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BREAK OFF THE
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND BECOME CUTOFF LATE MONDAY OVER
THE OZARKS. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN
THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...BECOMING MORE SEASONAL FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG WILL KEEP A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE REGION THIS PERIOD.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET
ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER FROM MCS BUT LATEST HRRR INDICATES
CONVECTION MAY BEGIN FIRING UP AGAIN ACROSS NE ARKANSAS BETWEEN
5-8Z. IF ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP...IT WOULD IMPACT KMEM AND KMKL BETWEEN
11-16Z. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER MCS MOVING OUT OF
OKLAHOMA BY 11Z. THIS COULD IMPACT KMEM AND KTUP DURING AFTERNOON
HOURS FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE VCTS WORDING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KMKL...KTUP AND POSSIBLY KJBR
BEFORE CONVECTION ARRIVES. AS A RESULT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
UPDATE...
LATE MORNING GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE MIDSOUTH...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM LAST NIGHT/S CENTRAL
PLAINS / MID MS RIVER VALLEY MCS. IN ADDITION... SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CUMULUS HAD FORMED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...SUPPORTED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
UPSTREAM AIRMASS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WAS RECOVERING WITH
RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. 16Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS FOR DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN I70 CORRIDOR STATIONARY FRONT. 12Z
NAM APPEARED A LITTLE PREMATURE IN DEVELOPING STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
MO. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MO
AND KY BORDERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON... NEARER TO THE HRRR SOLUTION.
BETTER THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE.
AN ONGOING MCS IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND NOT SHOWING ANY CONSIDERABLE SIGNS
OF WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE MID-SOUTH. IT WILL MOST LIKELY CLIP THE NORTHERN
MOST COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT AREA AS WELL. THE MCS WILL WEAKEN
BY LATE MORNING AND ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NEW ZONES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
AC3
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
SYNOPSIS... WE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE RING
OF FIRE SETS UP OVER THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
90S NEARLY AREAWIDE FOR TODAY. BY TONIGHT...A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT...BUT RAIN APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND A FEW AREAS...MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...ARE STARTING TO REPORT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE
ONSET OF PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
WITH SUN UP. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LARGE MCS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
ESE AND FALL APART BY THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER
MID-SOUTH ALREADY. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TODAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR...AND MOST HUMID AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. BY TONIGHT...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND INTERACT WILL A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MID LEVEL
50 KT JET WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500
J/KG...ALONG WITH 45-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES
NEAR 200 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED RISK OF A
TORNADO. STORM MODE APPEARS TO SUPPORT A LINEAR STRUCTURE AS UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT SOME TURNING OF
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS COULD INITIALLY SUPPORT A MIXED STORM
MODE. NONETHELESS...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
BY THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...EXACT LOCATION IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCLEAR.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN DESTABILIZE AND SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT..A
RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND MOST
LIKELY TRIGGER AN MCS OVERNIGHT. THE SAME SCENARIO IS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH AN MCS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 70S
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY. SUNDAY WILL ALSO SEE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND
SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AFTER TUESDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PROVIDING MVFR CIGS/VIS AT JBR AND
MKL. NOT CONFIDENT THAT OCCASIONAL STORMS WILL MAKE INTO MEM AND
TUP...SO PLACED SHOWERS IN AT MEM AND LEFT CONVECTION OUT AT TUP.
STORMS WILL PROVIDE A STRONG ENOUGH OUTFLOW TO SHIFT WINDS FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS SUNRISE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL
OCCUR AT JBR...MEM...AND MKL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME BY 05/01Z.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1150 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
LATE MORNING GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE MIDSOUTH...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM LAST NIGHT/S CENTRAL
PLAINS / MID MS RIVER VALLEY MCS. IN ADDITION... SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CUMULUS HAD FORMED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...SUPPORTED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
UPSTREAM AIRMASS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WAS RECOVERING WITH
RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. 16Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS FOR DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN I70 CORRIDOR STATIONARY FRONT. 12Z
NAM APPEARED A LITTLE PREMATURE IN DEVELOPING STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
MO. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MO
AND KY BORDERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON... NEARER TO THE HRRR SOLUTION.
BETTER THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE.
AN ONGOING MCS IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND NOT SHOWING ANY CONSIDERABLE SIGNS
OF WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE MID-SOUTH. IT WILL MOST LIKELY CLIP THE NORTHERN
MOST COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT AREA AS WELL. THE MCS WILL WEAKEN
BY LATE MORNING AND ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NEW ZONES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
AC3
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
SYNOPSIS... WE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE RING
OF FIRE SETS UP OVER THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
90S NEARLY AREAWIDE FOR TODAY. BY TONIGHT...A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT...BUT RAIN APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND A FEW AREAS...MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...ARE STARTING TO REPORT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE
ONSET OF PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
WITH SUN UP. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LARGE MCS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
ESE AND FALL APART BY THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER
MID-SOUTH ALREADY. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TODAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR...AND MOST HUMID AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. BY TONIGHT...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND INTERACT WILL A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MID LEVEL
50 KT JET WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500
J/KG...ALONG WITH 45-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES
NEAR 200 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED RISK OF A
TORNADO. STORM MODE APPEARS TO SUPPORT A LINEAR STRUCTURE AS UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT SOME TURNING OF
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS COULD INITIALLY SUPPORT A MIXED STORM
MODE. NONETHELESS...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
BY THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...EXACT LOCATION IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCLEAR.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN DESTABILIZE AND SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT..A
RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND MOST
LIKELY TRIGGER AN MCS OVERNIGHT. THE SAME SCENARIO IS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH AN MCS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 70S
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY. SUNDAY WILL ALSO SEE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND
SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AFTER TUESDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVES TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL SKIRT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. BKN HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF SHOULD IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT
WITH CONTINUED VFR CIGS/VSBYS. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
FALL APART BEFORE REACHING OUR TAF SITES AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG ACROSS OUR REGION PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER TODAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL
CU. VFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER MCS SHOULD FORM TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED OVERNIGHT FOR
KJBR AND KMKL WHERE THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS. KMEM AND
KTUP SHOULD REMAIN RAINFREE. IF CONVECTION DOES IMPACT KJBR OR
KMKL DIRECTLY...THEN CIGS AND VSBYS COULD BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE STILL REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD
ANYTHING MORE THAN VICINITY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH
SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY RELAX LATER TONIGHT AND MAY BE MODULATED BY ANY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED FROM EVENING STORM COMPLEX.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
942 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW A MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THAT WOULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING FRIDAY. THE RUC KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH
WHILE THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS IS NOT HIGH
BUT 20 PERCENT POPS ARE WARRANTED SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGE TO
THE WEATHER GRIDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE ONLY CHANGE THAT
WAS MADE WAS FOR THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS. UPDATES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
CHANGES ARE COMING...BUT AT A LAZY SUMMER PACE. RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN AND STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT SOUTH BY SUNDAY. FOR THIS
TAF CYCLE THERE WILL STILL BE MVFR MORNINGS WITH VFR
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. FLIGHTS FROM/TO THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME
CONVECTION NEAR THE RED RIVER BEFORE SUNRISE. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM A STRONG MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE PLAINS
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAVE HELPED PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THE FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE IT REACHES OUR CWA...IT REPRESENTS AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE A
FAVORABLE REGION FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS
A LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO AID IN THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG MCS...WE STILL EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY TRY TO CONGEAL INTO A WEAK MCS. SHOULD A MCS
DEVELOP...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF
THIS SYSTEM TO CLIP THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY RESULT WILL BE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER...WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING RATHER UNLIKELY.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL HEAD FARTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH THAT IS PARKED OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO WANDER INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY.
CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL OCCUR BY SUNDAY AS
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO ERODE THE RIDGE FROM
THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY ERODE OVER TEXAS
BY MONDAY...WHICH CERTAINLY IS SOME GOOD NEWS FOR RAIN CHANCES.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS ENOUGH BY THEN IT COULD
ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW WILL SHOW JUST LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER ALTOGETHER. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY WHEN A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO A MCS WHICH WOULD TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 30
TO 50 PERCENT OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY LOOK MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS. SINCE WE ARE EXPECTING A MCS DURING THE COOLER PART OF
THE DAY...THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WINDS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE MCS...SO IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO SAY WHO WILL
GET THIS MUCH RAIN AND WHO WILL BE GREEN WITH ENVY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD END THE CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN JUNE CAN OFTEN RESULT IN SURPRISE RAIN
EVENTS DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS IN THE MODEL DATA THAT THIS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY BECOMES AVAILABLE...WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL THERE IS SOME BETTER CONSISTENCY.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S...AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HIGH TEMPS WILL
COOL A BIT BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION.
THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH JUST A GRADUAL WARMING.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 94 75 94 76 / 5 10 5 5 10
WACO, TX 73 91 73 92 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 72 91 72 91 73 / 10 20 10 10 20
DENTON, TX 75 94 73 93 74 / 10 10 10 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 74 92 73 91 74 / 10 10 10 10 20
DALLAS, TX 75 93 75 93 75 / 5 10 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 76 92 74 93 76 / 5 10 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 73 91 72 91 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 72 91 72 92 74 / 5 5 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 96 71 96 72 / 10 5 5 5 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
84/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
625 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AT KLBB DUE TO A LOW
LEVEL JET FORMING AGAIN. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE KCDS TERMINAL. A SURFACE TROUGH FORMING WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...
SLIGHT COOLING SPREAD IN BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY.
IT HAS BEEN HEATING UP SOME ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NOW
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH FROM AROUND O`DONNELL THROUGH POST TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE. AIRMASS THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
A BIT SHORT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. SHORT TERM RAP SOLUTION...
HOWEVER...HAS INSISTED ON BREAKING THUNDERSTORMS OUT ALL DAY NEAR
ABOVE-MENTIONED BOUNDARY WHICH GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE BASE AND VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT CERTAINLY IS NOT A GIVEN. WE WILL HOLD TO A
CONDITIONAL LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THIS ZONE DURING THE EVENING
WHICH WOULD GIVE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER TONIGHT WOULD FOLLOW THE PATH OF PROJECTED MCS
FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL OUTFLOWS AND THUNDER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY EDGING
INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO LAY ANOTHER FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON OUR DOOR-STEP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A MORE MOIST
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PROBABLY PRECEDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MCS-TYPE STORMS FROM VICINITY RATON MESA OR SANGRE DE CHRISTI
TOWARDS OUR AREA LATE TOMORROW. MINUSCULE TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR
TOMORROW FOLLOWING ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND IMPROVING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GRAZE THE REGION AND
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS IN/NEAR THE AREA.
INITIALLY...FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES MAY RESIDE TO OUR NORTH...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE THE COMPLEX COULD CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY THERE FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD
THEN MATERIALIZE LATE SATURDAY AS THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED SURFACE
BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHWARD AND ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH DETAILS REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS...THERE
APPEARS A GOOD SHOT OF ANOTHER MCS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE NWP TENDS TO FAVOR THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR THIS MCS...AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS
WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...THOUGH IF THE 12Z NAM IS
CORRECT...THE FRONT AND CONVECTION WILL BE SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH
INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND WITH THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW LIKELY TO OUR SOUTH...THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND
UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. MODEST INSTABILITY AND
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING PWATS WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY GRADUALLY WANE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND EVEN THOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL...LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO OUR WEST TO PERSIST INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE TEMPERED BACK POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION FOR
MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN TRY
AND BUILD BACK THIS WAY FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO...THOUGH ONE OR MORE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY COULD PERHAPS
IMPROVE STORM CHANCES LOCALLY. CONFIDENCE ON IF/WHEN STORM CHANCES
WOULD PEAK NEXT WEEK IS LOW...AND HAVE KEPT THE POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY /ASSUMING
THE COLD FRONT IS NOT WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE/...WITH A NICE COOL
DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEHIND THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD FOLLOW NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK...THOUGH THE GFS DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAK FROPA TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 95 65 89 61 / 20 20 40 20 50
TULIA 67 95 67 88 63 / 20 10 30 20 50
PLAINVIEW 69 94 69 92 64 / 20 10 20 20 40
LEVELLAND 68 96 69 95 66 / 20 10 20 20 30
LUBBOCK 71 97 70 96 67 / 20 10 10 20 30
DENVER CITY 67 97 68 99 67 / 20 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 66 96 69 97 67 / 20 10 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 73 99 72 95 68 / 20 10 30 20 50
SPUR 72 97 71 96 68 / 20 10 10 20 30
ASPERMONT 73 100 73 99 70 / 20 10 10 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
130 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT FROM PENNSYLVANIA...WESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY...FINALLY SINKING SOUTH OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MCS MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM WITH
SOME SCT CONVECTION EXTENDING SEWD INTO OUR FAR WRN ZONES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT HAVING ANY SIGNIFICANT SUCCESS HOLDING TOGETHER.
BELIEVE OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE DAY WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH RES
ARW SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF THINGS AND WILL
LEAN ON IT UNTIL LOCAL WRF AND HRRR START TO CATCH ON. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO COVER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT OTHER ELEMENTS
OF THE FORECAST LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS AFD...
BLEND OF THE 00Z CMC/GFS/ECMWF TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SOME TENDENCY TOWARD WPC FASTER SOLUTION IN THE QPF.
THE ISSUE TODAY WILL BE FIRING UP OF NEW CONVECTION. THE CMC
ESPECIALLY FAVORS SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP IN THE NEW RIVER
AND ROANOKE VALLEYS TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY NOON...THEN SHIFTING ESE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE HOWEVER APPEARS
SCATTERED AT BEST...SO NOT GOING TO HAVE HIGH CHANCE OF POPS.
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER TODAY...THEN WE START
TO FOCUS ON WHERE THE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS LOCATED
FROM NE KS TO CENTRAL IL...AND ITS EVOLUTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THESE COMPLEXES TEND TO STIR TOWARD THE HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS ALONG THE CORFIDI VECTORS. MODELS SHOW THIS WILL BE OVER KY/TN
LATER TONIGHT...BUT EASTWARD STEERING ALOFT MAY TAKE SOME TO THE MID
ATLANTIC FROM PA TO VA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS HIGHLIGHT
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WEST TO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MODELS HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THAT MODELS MAY BE SLOWER
WITH OVERALL SPEED OF SYSTEM BY 3-6 HRS...AND WPC IS SHOWING ABOUT
A FASTER SOLUTION. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE ENTERING SE WV EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
SHIFTING IT SOUTH TO THE NC MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS EAST OF BLUE RIDGE FROM ROANOKE SOUTH TO THE NC
FOOTHILLS. KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH FROM NORTH OF ROANOKE
EAST TO LYH...DUE TO THE FACT THAT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY
SINK ANY CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NRN VA SOUTH INTO THIS AREA
LATE.
OVERALL WILL BE WORRIED ABOUT A WIND THREAT IN THE WEST. THINK
TIMING BEING AT NIGHT FAVORS LESS INSTABILITY...SO THE THREAT
SHRINKS EAST OF THE WV/FAR SW VA AND NW NC MTNS.
IF THE MCS TRACKS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST HOLDING TOGETHER...A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR. WPC ALSO HAS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEST INTO KY. WILL HIGHLIGHT HVY
RAIN/ISOLATE FLOODING THREAT IN THE HWO FOR OUR WRN MTN COUNTIES.
GIVEN LACK OF GOOD RAINFALL LATELY...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO NOT
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH OUR
WFO NEIGHBORS.
FOR TEMPS...THEY TOO WILL BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FASTER THAN MODELS SUGGEST COULD IMPACT HIGH
TEMPS. KEPT THE COURSE OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT RAISED A DEGREE OR
TWO EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY WARM/HOT AND
HUMID DAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 90 SOUTHEAST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.
TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AROUND TEMPS WILL NOT FALL TOO
FAR...BUT SHOULD REACH CLOSER TO DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WHILE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF A DECAYING MCS REMAINS IN QUESTION...
BELIEVE THAT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WILL HAVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. THE SYSTEM`S ARRIVAL WILL
LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS/
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE/SE WEST VIRGINIA...IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS. AS
CONVECTION SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...MAY MAINTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS...BUT
EXPECT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. BY AFTERNOON...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ENOUGH THAT
WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460.
ASSUMING THERE ARE NO CHANGES IN THE TIMING OR THE TRACK OF THE
MCS...THE COMBINATION OF SUN AND WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
WHILE MID AND UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH...BUT EXPECT THAT THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MORE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING EAST
ALONG THE FRONT TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE REMAINS QUITE A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...WITH
THE NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CONVECTION TO OUR AREA...
WHILE THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF MODELS ALL KEEP THE CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH. INCLINED TO FOLLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...
BUT WONT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT IT EITHER...AND THEREFORE WILL GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO OUR AREA.
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP
KEEP INSTABILITY LIMITED. AS CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES DURING THE
EVENING...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S EAST
AND THE LOW 80S/UPPER 70S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTH PULLING
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AGAIN WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY..
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AVIATION PACKAGE DUE TO LACK OF CLEAR
CUT EVOLUTION WITH ANTICIPATED UPSTREAM CONVECTION. STORMS
CURRENTLY FIRING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT
WHERE MORNING SUN HAS ENHANCED INSTABILITY. MOST LIKELY THAT KDAN
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS RIGHT AT ISSUANCE TIME SO WILL HAVE A ONE
HOUR GROUP OFF THE BAT TO HANDLE THIS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE
VCTS IS THE WAY TO GO UNTIL CONVECTION CAN GET MORE ORGANIZED.
MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING A BIT AND SEEM TO FAVOR BRINGING
THINGS THROUGH IN SURGES. WILL ATTEMP TO TIME THE INITIAL SURGE
FROM NW TO SE BEGINNING AROUND 00Z. WILL INDICATE NW GUSTS
ANTICIPATING LINEAR OUTFLOW FOR ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD. THIS IS
ATTEMPTING TO INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR ENHANCED
WINDS...ACTUAL PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WILL BE SHORTER. FROPA
DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. BUT AM INDICATING
THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW. FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK
SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING. ALSO ANTICIPATE SOME FOG FORMATION
LATE MAINLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. ALSO BELIEVE GOOD MIXING BEHING
FRONT TOMORROW SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME GUSTY WIND.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MAINLY VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL FOG LATE NIGHT FOG
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
AND SUB VFR WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OBSERVATIONS ARE AGAIN COMING IN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
917 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT FROM PENNSYLVANIA...WESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY...FINALLY SINKING SOUTH OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MCS MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM WITH
SOME SCT CONVECTION EXTENDING SEWD INTO OUR FAR WRN ZONES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT HAVING ANY SIGNIFICANT SUCCESS HOLDING TOGETHER.
BELIEVE OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE DAY WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH RES
ARW SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF THINGS AND WILL
LEAN ON IT UNTIL LOCAL WRF AND HRRR START TO CATCH ON. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO COVER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT OTHER ELEMENTS
OF THE FORECAST LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS AFD...
BLEND OF THE 00Z CMC/GFS/ECMWF TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SOME TENDENCY TOWARD WPC FASTER SOLUTION IN THE QPF.
THE ISSUE TODAY WILL BE FIRING UP OF NEW CONVECTION. THE CMC
ESPECIALLY FAVORS SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP IN THE NEW RIVER
AND ROANOKE VALLEYS TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY NOON...THEN SHIFTING ESE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE HOWEVER APPEARS
SCATTERED AT BEST...SO NOT GOING TO HAVE HIGH CHANCE OF POPS.
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER TODAY...THEN WE START
TO FOCUS ON WHERE THE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS LOCATED
FROM NE KS TO CENTRAL IL...AND ITS EVOLUTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THESE COMPLEXES TEND TO STIR TOWARD THE HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS ALONG THE CORFIDI VECTORS. MODELS SHOW THIS WILL BE OVER KY/TN
LATER TONIGHT...BUT EASTWARD STEERING ALOFT MAY TAKE SOME TO THE MID
ATLANTIC FROM PA TO VA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS HIGHLIGHT
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WEST TO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MODELS HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THAT MODELS MAY BE SLOWER
WITH OVERALL SPEED OF SYSTEM BY 3-6 HRS...AND WPC IS SHOWING ABOUT
A FASTER SOLUTION. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE ENTERING SE WV EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
SHIFTING IT SOUTH TO THE NC MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS EAST OF BLUE RIDGE FROM ROANOKE SOUTH TO THE NC
FOOTHILLS. KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH FROM NORTH OF ROANOKE
EAST TO LYH...DUE TO THE FACT THAT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY
SINK ANY CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NRN VA SOUTH INTO THIS AREA
LATE.
OVERALL WILL BE WORRIED ABOUT A WIND THREAT IN THE WEST. THINK
TIMING BEING AT NIGHT FAVORS LESS INSTABILITY...SO THE THREAT
SHRINKS EAST OF THE WV/FAR SW VA AND NW NC MTNS.
IF THE MCS TRACKS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST HOLDING TOGETHER...A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR. WPC ALSO HAS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEST INTO KY. WILL HIGHLIGHT HVY
RAIN/ISOLATE FLOODING THREAT IN THE HWO FOR OUR WRN MTN COUNTIES.
GIVEN LACK OF GOOD RAINFALL LATELY...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO NOT
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH OUR
WFO NEIGHBORS.
FOR TEMPS...THEY TOO WILL BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FASTER THAN MODELS SUGGEST COULD IMPACT HIGH
TEMPS. KEPT THE COURSE OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT RAISED A DEGREE OR
TWO EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY WARM/HOT AND
HUMID DAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 90 SOUTHEAST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.
TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AROUND TEMPS WILL NOT FALL TOO
FAR...BUT SHOULD REACH CLOSER TO DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WHILE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF A DECAYING MCS REMAINS IN QUESTION...
BELIEVE THAT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WILL HAVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. THE SYSTEM`S ARRIVAL WILL
LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS/
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE/SE WEST VIRGINIA...IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS. AS
CONVECTION SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...MAY MAINTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS...BUT
EXPECT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. BY AFTERNOON...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ENOUGH THAT
WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460.
ASSUMING THERE ARE NO CHANGES IN THE TIMING OR THE TRACK OF THE
MCS...THE COMBINATION OF SUN AND WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
WHILE MID AND UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH...BUT EXPECT THAT THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MORE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING EAST
ALONG THE FRONT TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE REMAINS QUITE A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...WITH
THE NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CONVECTION TO OUR AREA...
WHILE THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF MODELS ALL KEEP THE CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH. INCLINED TO FOLLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...
BUT WONT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT IT EITHER...AND THEREFORE WILL GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO OUR AREA.
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP
KEEP INSTABILITY LIMITED. AS CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES DURING THE
EVENING...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S EAST
AND THE LOW 80S/UPPER 70S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTH PULLING
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AGAIN WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY..
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT
ACROSS THE BLF TERMINAL.
STILL DISCREPANCIES IN TERMS OF TODAYS FORECAST. LOOKING AT MAINLY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE SO OVERALL NOT SEEING ANY TERMINALS
GETTING PREDOMINANT SHRA/TSRA FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
THEREFORE ADDED VCTS. TOOK IT OUT IN LYH/DAN...THINKING COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS.
STILL LOOKING AT ORGANIZED MCS TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH INTO THE OH
VALLEY INTO TN...AND ALSO SW VA/NW NC OVERNIGHT. MODELS PAINTING
LWB/BLF WITH BEST THREAT OF STORMS WITH LESS CHANCE IN THE LYH/DAN
CORRIDOR. WITH THESE STORMS EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SPEEDING UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...NOW LOOKING AT LESS COVERAGE
OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. MAINLY VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM
POTENTIAL FOG LATE NIGHT FOG EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SUB VFR WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OBSERVATIONS ARE AGAIN COMING IN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...DS/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
203 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT FROM PENNSYLVANIA...WESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY...FINALLY SINKING SOUTH OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BULK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SE WV ARE WEAKENING ALONG A THETA-E
RIDGE. BEST INSTABILITY LIES WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF LEXINGTON KY.
APPEARS THE 00Z CMC/LATEST RAP HANDLING THINGS WELL...AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE AS FAR EAST AS THE NC MTNS TO WV/VA STATE
LINE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT THICKER CS SHIFTING SOUTH OUT OF THE
AREA WITH MORE SCT-BKN LOW AND MID CLOUDS OVER WV. SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WITH PC-BKN SKIES IN
THE FAR WEST. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE VALLEYS. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO OTHER WX ELEMENTS.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE MID WEST. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD
BOOST OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAIN FOCUS WILL BE A MORE ORGANIZED MCS
WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX
WITH MOST LIKELY TIMING OF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY OPTIMUM TIMING FOR SEVERE. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE AMONG MODELS AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF AN MCS WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
OH VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OR EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. SPC
MAINTAINING AN ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK FOR THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING INTO
OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z THU. SOME SEVERE WX PARAMETERS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING AN MCS OR SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LIMITED DUE
PARTLY TO THE PASSAGE AT NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING. MAINTAINED LIKELY
OR HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW MUCH THE OH VALLEY MCS
ACTUALLY HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND AT NIGHT. A
LOCAL STUDY OF OVER 50 MOUNTAIN CROSSING MESOSCALE SYSTEMS HAS SHOWN
THAT THE CHANCE OF SUCCESSFUL (I.E. REMAINING SEVERE) PASSAGE IS
CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED AT NIGHT OWING PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. BUT THAT IS NOT IN ITSELF A CONCLUSIVE FACTOR.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THURSDAY MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EITHER WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE WESTERLY
AND FALLING DEWPOINTS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
TOWARD THE COAST WHERE WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY TO RECOVER. THIS IS DEPICTED BY DAY 3 SEVERE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC. PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO FALL VICTIM TO THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MCS WITH HEAVIEST RAIN ALSO EXEPCTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON IN THE OH
VALLEY. ENOUGH ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN WITH DECAYING MCS FOR UP TO A
HALF-INCH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OR SO IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA OF COURSE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS MAY SEE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
PUSHING EAST AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND MILD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY JUN CLIMO..UPPER 70S
FAR WEST AND MID-80S EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
WILL LIFT NORTH PULLING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AGAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT WEDNESDAY..
AMD NOT SKED ADDED BACK TO KLYH DUE TO NO TRANSMISSION OF OBS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FOG FORMING AT
BCB/LWB...AND BLF. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT ACROSS THE BLF TERMINAL
WHICH WILL MOISTEN UP THE SFC. BLF ACTUALLY COULD SEE MORE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS THAN LWB...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
THAT. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT BLF WILL AT LEAST DROP TO IFR AT TIMES
BETWEEN 11-13Z...WITH BOTH FOG/LOW CLOUDS WHILE BCB/LWB WILL BE
DEALING MORE WITH FOG AND MVFR TO HIGH END IFR VSBYS TOWARD DAWN.
ANY FOG CLEARS UP AFTER 12Z. OVERALL MODELS SHOW VARIANCE WITH
TODAYS FORECAST. THE 00Z CANADIAN SEEMED TO BE HANDLING UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AND SFC PATTERN WELL. WILL SEE MAINLY VFR TODAY...BUT
LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THINK WITH A LEE TROUGH AND BACKING FLOW MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACTAULLY MAY OCCUR EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. SO HAVE VCTS IN AT
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BLF/LWB. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SE WV
AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND MODEL VARY ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION
OF THIS FEATURE WITH SOME FAVORING A SPLIT OVER OUR AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING HIGHER THAT AT LEAST BLF/LWB COULD SEE
STRONG STORMS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH MODELS SPEEDING UP THE TIMING OF FROPA
TO THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE STORMS EXPECT SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
LOOKS LIKE BY THURSDAY NIGHT BEST THREAT OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH
OF US WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. ASIDE FROM
POTENTIAL FOG LATE NIGHT FOG EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SUB VFR WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LYNCHBURG ASOS HAVE STOPPED TRANSMITTING
ONCE AGAIN AS OF 02Z WED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...DS/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
632 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO LESS INSTABILITY.
MUCAPE VALUES OFF OF THE SPC MESOANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALONG AND WEST OF A CORRIDOR OF 500 TO 2000
J/KG MUCAPE. FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS
LITTLE OR NO CAPE TO WORK WITH THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE. WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF CAPE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SLIGHTLY
AS IT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
THEN MOVES INTO LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THESE AREAS COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE NAM12/ARW/ECWMF SOLUTIONS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY PERSISTING CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR SO HAVE
DECIDED TO PULL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SOUTH CLOSER TO THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. WEAK RIDGING THEN MOVES OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NEARLY 1900 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT THERE ISN/T ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SPEAK OF WITH
THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. A
TROUGH THEN APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
SLIDES OVERHEAD. ALSO...FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS MOVES THROUGH
ON THE 800 THROUGH 600 MB LAYER. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUPPORT
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS THESE FEATURES COME
TOGETHER ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.4
INCHES. ONLY WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SO THIS WILL
LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. ACTIVE WEATHER THEN RETURNS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. LOOKING AHEAD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ZONAL
FLOW LOOKS TO SETUP OVER THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH WITH SMALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
PERSISTING. PLAN ON NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH KRST BY 00Z AND
THE CURRENT MOVEMENT WOULD TAKE MOST OF THEM NORTH OF KLSE AND PLAN
TO START BOTH SITES WITH JUST VCSH. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY
WILL SURVIVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. THE 05.18Z NAM AND
05.12Z GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW THE SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER AND
PROGRESSING EAST WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. THE 05.21Z HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF ANY INSTABILITY...BUT IT ALSO IS
NOT HANDLING THE STRONGER CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN IOWA VERY WELL EITHER...THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN ITS
SOLUTION. WILL CARRY A VCSH THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL IT BECOMES
CLEAR WHICH TREND WILL BE CORRECT. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSES...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR/SCATTER OUT AND WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
THAT WAS RECEIVED AT KRST...SHOULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP THERE AND
HAVE SHOWN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT FOR THIS. THE
NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER BRINGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT IS
SHOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHILE THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE DRY.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER SOLUTIONS AND NOT SHOW
ANY RAIN FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IS WITH VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL
IN WISCONSIN TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY
DRIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. CU FIELD WITH SOME VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH AS A SURFACE RIDGE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT SOME
VERY SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG COULD FORM IN LOW LYING/VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE 04.17Z RAP KEEPS DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S OVERNIGHT...SO DO NOT THINK THAT THERE IS MUCH CONCERN FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP LOW ENOUGH IN THE BOGS TO CREATE SOME FROST
OVERNIGHT. IF THE CORE OF THE RIDGE WAS GOING TO BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...THEN MAYBE...BUT IT STAYS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
AS THE RIDGE TRACKS TO THE EAST...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER TOMORROW BRINGING LOW
LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. A CORRIDOR OF
1000-2000J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
FORM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA WITH COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH WIND SHEAR/INSTABILITY STAYING ON THE
LOW SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
AFTER THIS SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL END AS A BROAD TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE MORE
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY FORMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. 04.12Z
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH LITTLE TO NO
WIND SHEAR IN THE EFFECTIVE LAYER. SO AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THIS CONVECTION. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST BETWEEN HOW FAST/WIDESPREAD THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF
SPINS UP A DEEP SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE MAIN CROSS OVER BETWEEN THE MODELS APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY
EVENING...SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR
THAT PERIOD.
RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FROM THE EAST FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVES IN ON MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE DRY
WITH A FEW SHOTS OF GETTING SOME RAIN...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY ON THE SEASONAL SIDE
THROUGHOUT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH CLOUD BASES OF 6000
TO 7000 FT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KLSE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS THIS EVENING. IF DEWPOINTS STAY UP...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT KLSE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
WABASHA REMAINS THE ONLY SPOT FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS
RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLIER THIS WEEK MAKES IT
DOWN THE RIVER. A FEW SHOTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK WHICH COULD HELP KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1239 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WAS FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION. THE 04.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE WAY TOO FAR
NORTH AND TOO HEAVY WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION...THUS TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE ARW...NMM...AND RAP MODELS. THESE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH 04.18Z. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHOWERS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A
RESULT...HAVE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THIS MORNING DECREASING TO
16 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS THAN 6 KNOTS
OF WINDS UP TO 700 MB AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG
RADIATIVE COOLING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
AND MID 40S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SHELTERED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD
POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
ADAMS...JACKSON...JUNEAU...AND MONROE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DEW POINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID
50S. HOWEVER MIX DOWN TOOLS SUGGEST THAT DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THE LOWEST DEW POINTS WILL BE FOUND IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALSO LOWER CAPE
VALUES BY AT LEAST 500 J/KG...THUS...LESS INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 04.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE COLD FRONT
LOCATED TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT STRONGER WITH A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT.
AS A RESULT...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN WHAT SHOWS UP IN EITHER THE GEM OR GFS. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF GENERATES MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SINCE BOTH MODEL
SETS REMAINED CONSISTENT...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
ON SUNDAY...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BELOW 500 MB. THIS MAKES SENSE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER NEIGHBORING
SOUTHERN OFFICES WERE DEALING WITH SEVERE WEATHER OPTED TO LEAVE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 04.00Z ECMWF...GEM...AND
GFS ARE GENERALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR 20 TO 40 PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. SINCE THIS
WAS A NEW TREND AND THE NEIGHBORING SOUTHERN OFFICES WERE DEALING
WITH SEVERE WEATHER OPTED TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH CLOUD BASES OF 6000
TO 7000 FT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KLSE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS THIS EVENING. IF DEWPOINTS STAY UP...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT KLSE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING IN THE ST CROIX AND MINNESOTA
RIVER BASINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CHIPPEWA RIVER BASIN LAST
WEEKEND...THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS ONCE AGAIN RISING. THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO FLOOD STAGE
/12 FEET/ ON SATURDAY JUNE 7TH AND THEN HOVER THERE THROUGH
TUESDAY JUNE 11TH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
635 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WAS FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION. THE 04.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE WAY TOO FAR
NORTH AND TOO HEAVY WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION...THUS TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE ARW...NMM...AND RAP MODELS. THESE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH 04.18Z. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHOWERS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A
RESULT...HAVE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THIS MORNING DECREASING TO
16 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS THAN 6 KNOTS
OF WINDS UP TO 700 MB AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG
RADIATIVE COOLING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
AND MID 40S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SHELTERED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD
POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
ADAMS...JACKSON...JUNEAU...AND MONROE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DEW POINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID
50S. HOWEVER MIX DOWN TOOLS SUGGEST THAT DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THE LOWEST DEW POINTS WILL BE FOUND IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALSO LOWER CAPE
VALUES BY AT LEAST 500 J/KG...THUS...LESS INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 04.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE COLD FRONT
LOCATED TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT STRONGER WITH A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT.
AS A RESULT...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN WHAT SHOWS UP IN EITHER THE GEM OR GFS. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF GENERATES MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SINCE BOTH MODEL
SETS REMAINED CONSISTENT...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
ON SUNDAY...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BELOW 500 MB. THIS MAKES SENSE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER NEIGHBORING
SOUTHERN OFFICES WERE DEALING WITH SEVERE WEATHER OPTED TO LEAVE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 04.00Z ECMWF...GEM...AND
GFS ARE GENERALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR 20 TO 40 PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. SINCE THIS
WAS A NEW TREND AND THE NEIGHBORING SOUTHERN OFFICES WERE DEALING
WITH SEVERE WEATHER OPTED TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...STILL SEEING SOME
HIGH BASED SPRINKLES FROM WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND BROAD LIFT AS WEAK
IMPULSE UPSTREAM STILL APPROACHING. VFR CEILINGS BEING REPORTED...
WHICH SHOULD CLEAR THIS MORNING. SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER COULD REFORM DURING DAY WITH LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING THAT...
BUT A GENERAL DRY AND CLEARING TREND IS PREDICTED WITH VFR
CONTINUING.
SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT WILL ALSO MAKE FOR QUIET CONDITIONS BUT COULD
SEE SOME POCKETS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY ON WISCONSIN SIDE. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING IN THE ST CROIX AND MINNESOTA
RIVER BASINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CHIPPEWA RIVER BASIN LAST
WEEKEND...THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS ONCE AGAIN RISING. THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO FLOOD STAGE
/12 FEET/ ON SATURDAY JUNE 7TH AND THEN HOVER THERE THROUGH
TUESDAY JUNE 11TH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
348 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WAS FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION. THE 04.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE WAY TOO FAR
NORTH AND TOO HEAVY WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION...THUS TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE ARW...NMM...AND RAP MODELS. THESE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH 04.18Z. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHOWERS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A
RESULT...HAVE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THIS MORNING DECREASING TO
16 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS THAN 6 KNOTS
OF WINDS UP TO 700 MB AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG
RADIATIVE COOLING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
AND MID 40S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SHELTERED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD
POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
ADAMS...JACKSON...JUNEAU...AND MONROE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DEW POINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID
50S. HOWEVER MIX DOWN TOOLS SUGGEST THAT DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THE LOWEST DEW POINTS WILL BE FOUND IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALSO LOWER CAPE
VALUES BY AT LEAST 500 J/KG...THUS...LESS INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 04.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE COLD FRONT
LOCATED TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT STRONGER WITH A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT.
AS A RESULT...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN WHAT SHOWS UP IN EITHER THE GEM OR GFS. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF GENERATES MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SINCE BOTH MODEL
SETS REMAINED CONSISTENT...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
ON SUNDAY...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BELOW 500 MB. THIS MAKES SENSE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER NEIGHBORING
SOUTHERN OFFICES WERE DEALING WITH SEVERE WEATHER OPTED TO LEAVE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 04.00Z ECMWF...GEM...AND
GFS ARE GENERALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR 20 TO 40 PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. SINCE THIS
WAS A NEW TREND AND THE NEIGHBORING SOUTHERN OFFICES WERE DEALING
WITH SEVERE WEATHER OPTED TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE AIRFIELDS WITH ONLY 10KFT CLOUD LAYERS
AROUND DUE TO WEATHER WEATHER DISTURBANCES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING IN THE ST CROIX AND MINNESOTA
RIVER BASINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CHIPPEWA RIVER BASIN LAST
WEEKEND...THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS ONCE AGAIN RISING. THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO FLOOD STAGE
/12 FEET/ ON SATURDAY JUNE 7TH AND THEN HOVER THERE THROUGH
TUESDAY JUNE 11TH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AT 01Z...SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND NEB
CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE SYNOPTICS SOUTHWARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH WITH THE COLD POOL AND IS NOW ALONG THE MO/IA
BORDER RUNNING DUE WEST INTO NEB. FRONTOGENESIS BAND SHIFTS IN
OVERNIGHT FROM SERN SD AND SWRN MN. THIS IS THE FORCING THAT IS
CAUSING THE RAIN ON RADARS OVER THAT AREA NOW...IN COMBINATIONWITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DYNAMICS ALOFT /QVECTOR CONVERGENCE/.
HOWEVER...THE TREND IN THE 06-12Z FRONTOGENETIC BAND HAS BEEN
REALLY SHIFTING SOUTH IN THE LATEST RAP RUNS. THE 04.18Z RAP
FORECAST PLACED THE 600MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND OVER I-90...AND THE
04.23Z RAP HAS THE BAND FROM MASON CITY IA TO SOUTH OF MADISON WI.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH DEEPENING COLD LOW-LEVELS TO THE SOUTH DUE
TO CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LIFT...BUT LOWER LEVEL
LIFT IS WORKING FURTHER SOUTH.
ENORMOUS STRATIFORM RAIN REGION ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA NORTH OF THE
SEVERE CONVECTION IS ALSO CAUSING PROBLEMS FOR GETTING ANY
INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH IN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT ABOVE THE
FRONTOGENETIC AREA PER RAP SOPUNDINGS FOR LATER TONIGHT SUGGESTS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDER CLAP MAY OCCUR /7C PER KM FROM
500-300 MB/. WILL LEAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND KEEP IT MAINLY
NERN IA AND SWRN WI.
BOTTOM LINE WAS TO TRIM THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RAIN CHANCE
SHIELD DRYING OUT THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN. KEPT NERN IA AND SWRN WI WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES
AS PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTAINED. COULD GET SOME SPRINKLES IN THE
I-90 CORRIDOR FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT AS IT SHIFTS OVER
TOWARD SUNRISE. VERY MINOR THUNDER CHANCES HAVE REMAINED IN THE
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER TAKES PLACE TO OUR SOUTH.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC AND THE GREAT LAKES...WITH BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ON THE TOP OF THIS
RIDGE...SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND IN NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. DPVA FROM THESE TWO SHORTWAVES...COMBINED WITH STRONG
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI WHERE MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXISTS PER RAP ANALYSIS...HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DRY CONDITIONS EXIST DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. SOME CIRRUS HAS
BEEN STREAMING IN AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF...AS WELL AS
FROM A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE EQUATORIAL REGION
OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. MASSIVE DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
EXISTS PER GOES DERIVED IMAGERY...DEPICTING 0.6-0.7 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TO 1.4-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA.
REGARDING AIRMASS WARMTH...A BIG DIFFERENCE EXISTS HERE TOO. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWED 925MB TEMPS OF AROUND 16C OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TO 24-30C IN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
CONGEALING INTO A BOWING MCS THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN IOWA. IN
FACT...THE SMALL BOW TRAVERSING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD END UP
BEING THE BOWING MCS. THIS IS VERY WELL AGREED UPON BY BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. FROM THIS POINT...THERE
REMAINS A SPLIT AMONGST SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...
PRIMARILY THE 03.12Z NAM AND 03.09Z SREF WHICH TAKE A FARTHER NORTH
TRACK COMPARED TO THE 03.12Z GFS/ECMWF AND MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE DEALING WITH A BOWING MCS...THE
FORECAST MOTION IS DETERMINED BY CORFIDI VECTORS...AND IN THIS CASE
THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS ARE MORE APPROPRIATE.
THESE VECTORS POINTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUGGEST A TRACK THROUGH
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL...THUS FAVORING THE MORE SOUTHERN
MODELS. THE 03.12Z HI RES ARW AT THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE CONVECTION NOW THE BEST AND ALSO TAKES EVEN MORE OF A SOUTHERN
TRACK.
NOW ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT IS LIKELY TO DROP TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT...THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS FOR A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND TO CROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-90. ALONG WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS
BAND...A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KT JET STREAK AT THE
TROPOPAUSE CROSSING WISCONSIN SHOULD HELP PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SOUTH OF I-90. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT SOUTH OF I-90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS
SUGGEST CLOUD BASES COULD BE ROOTED AT 10000 FT...WHICH MAY TEND TO
LIMIT SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY...INSTABILITY IS
FAIRLY MEAGER ABOVE 10000 FT...THUS LIGHTNING MAY BE ISOLATED AT
BEST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE GONE AFTER 12Z PER 03.12Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SOME HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA PER GFS/ECMWF. DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY
MILD. GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 50S LOOK REASONABLE. ON WEDNESDAY...
INITIAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A
BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. STILL...925MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO 16-18C BY 00Z SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...
1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP.
ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 0.5
INCH OR LESS. THERE ARE SOME ISSUES WITH HOW COLD WE GET...
ESPECIALLY AT OUR COLD SITES WHERE AT SPARTA WI THE MAV IS 36
COMPARED TO 45 OFF THE MET. THE DIFFERENCE IS TIED TO THE SPEED OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SPREADING CLOUDS
TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE 03.12Z NAM BRINGS PRECIPITABLE
WATER BACK UP TOWARDS 1 INCH AT 12Z...REFLECTIVE OF THESE CLOUDS.
FOR NOW HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE MAV AS THE NAM SCENARIO APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER AMONGST MOST GUIDANCE. FOR NOW LEFT OUT A FROST
MENTION SINCE DID NOT GO 100 PERCENT COLD AS THE MAV...BUT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR CENTRAL WI IN LATER FORECASTS.
2. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS A RESULT OF BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN ANY OTHER MODEL.
ALL OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE LEANED THAT WAY.
3. THE WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION. ONE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY...AND A SECOND BEING A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH MN AND WI ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW THESE TWO INTERACT...PRIMARILY WITH
THE 03.00Z/03.12Z ECMWF RUNS MUCH MORE BULLISH SPREADING SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...COMPARED TO THE 03.12Z
GFS/CANADIAN WHICH ARE DRIER. FOR NOW FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS AND
GIVEN THE GENERALLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF...KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UP IN THE 30-60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE CONCERNS STILL SEEM MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A TREND
FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT QUICKER FOR SUNDAY...THUS HAVE LOWER
CHANCES BETWEEN 20-30 THEN. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 8C.
4. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY INCREASES...BUT
THERE IS A GENERAL IDEA FOR RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. EXACT TIMING VARIES...BUT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY
FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE AIRFIELDS WITH ONLY 10KFT CLOUD LAYERS
AROUND DUE TO WEATHER WEATHER DISTURBANCES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
WEEK...THUS THE WARNING CONTINUES THERE.
REGARDING THE TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI...THE ONLY OTHER FLOOD
WARNINGS THAT WERE PRESENT WERE ALONG THE KICKAPOO AND THESE HAVE
NOW BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
348 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH MINIMAL CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES.
INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD PUSH 40 TO
50 KTS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. 18Z LAPS DATA SHOWING UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE IN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS 1000-1500 K/KG HIGHER THAN THE
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. NOT SURE THE LAPS DATA IS 100 PERCENT
ACCURATE BUT GOING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MESO ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE WOULD MEAN VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 16Z HRRR RUN OF COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISCRETE
CONVECTION INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. AT ANY RATE...THERE IS AT LEAST A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE
CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO LATE
TONIGHT NEAR THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED BY
LATE THIS EVENING WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT...AND THAT BEING
MAINLY HAIL.
AIR MASS SHOULD BE STABLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW. CAP
SHOULD BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPPING. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW...BUT THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY BE TO REMOVE THE
CHANCES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACTUALLY THE
HIGHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TOMORROW EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. STRONG THETAE
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
NAM IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE STRONGEST POSITIVE THETAE THAN
THE GFS. NOT SURE WHICH TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING
OF THESE FEATURES. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS WOULD BE THE CASE...THEN WE MAY SEE
THE CONVECTION DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY. WE DID BUMP UP
POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. THIS MAY
ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON THIS DAY AS
WELL WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LIKE THE BULK OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. AFTER THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH...IT WILL TURN QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND 60S. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROF MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY HELP
STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STILL FAIRLY GOOD
SHEAR IN PLACE. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO YIELD TO LOWER
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
AFTER THE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RIDGING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW. AS A
RESULT...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON MONDAY...DUE TO
GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BANK UP
AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOME AID FROM THE LEE SURFACE TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MUCH GREATER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTER REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND
LARAMIE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER STAGES HAVE CRESTED
AND ARE FORECASTED TO RECEDE. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
SO NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOW MELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...REC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1131 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA AND NONE MORE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED FOR THIS AS WELL AS FOR CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS. SHOULD STILL SEE AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE FOG MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS OR
SO...WITH THE BEST RADAR COVERAGE SO FAR OVR CARBON/ALBANY
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY HIGH-BASED AND HAS PRODUCED LITTLE
OR NO RAINFALL AS SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS UNDOUBTEDLY ARE PRODUCING WINDS GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE WELL-DEFINED
DRYLINE HAD REACHED KIMBALL AND EXTENDED NORTHWEST TOWARDS
DOUGLAS. CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS MOSTLY DEVELOPED ON THE DRY-SIDE
OF THIS DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH DID HAVE AN UPDRAFT GO UP EAST OF THE
THE DRYLINE...WHICH WAS UNABLE TO BE SUSTAINED. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRY PUNCH ASSOCIATED WITH A H3 JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NEBRASKA AS WELL AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING
ACROSS WYOMING. THE AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL CONDUCIVE
TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. AT 19Z...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS TONGUE OF 2000 J/KG
MLCAPE EXTENDING BACK TO NR THE WY/NE STATELINE. THERE CONTINUED
TO BE HOWEVER SOME WEAK MLCIN OF AROUND 20 J/KG IN THIS AREA
TOO...LIKELY DELAYING SOME THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60+ KNOTS WILL AID ORGANIZATION. LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOW WITH STORMS
PUSHING EAST OF THE CWFA BY AROUND 6 PM...WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION OVR THE PANHANDLE AS WELL LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED
IT INTO THE FORECAST.
FLOW BACKS QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE MAINLY OVR THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PROGD SBCAPES FLARING TO 1000-1500
J/KG. 0-6 KM WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY...PROGD TO BE AROUND
50 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GET
SEVERE CONVECTION GOING. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MULTI-CELL
CLUSTER BY LATER AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH EAST TOWARDS THE
SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA IN THE PROGRESS PATTERN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
NO BIG CHANGES THIS PACKAGE FROM WHAT WE INHERITED ON THE MORNING
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST. 12Z GFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE ADVERTISING A MESSY UPPER PATTERN WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER TROUGH SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN THEY SHIFT THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST GOING INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA...BUT HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON BRINGING IT THROUGH UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO OUR EAST. THE
ECMWF NOW HAS A STRONGER SIGNAL IN DEPICTING A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWER TEMPS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS OUR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL LIKELY GET KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 60S UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE WE CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS ADVERTISED ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO LOW END POPS WERE LEFT IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT CHEYENNE AND OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...OTHERWISE VFR.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALIZED MVFR...
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE. FEWER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO LESS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND WILL PRODUCE A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND
LARAMIE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER STAGES HAVE CRESTED
AND ARE FORECASTED TO RECEDE. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
SO NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOWMELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RE
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GARMON
HYDROLOGY...RUBIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
210 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE MAIN BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS BY MORNING. CURRENT 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS
REMNANTS OF MCS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CSRA...BUT HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE BEING OVER NORTH GEORGIA. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATED THIS WEAKENING AND IT CONTINUES TO DO SO. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/SRN CSRA REMAINS WEAKLY/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AS REMNANTS
OF THE MCS MOVE SEWD. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SAVANNAH
RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT LOWER POPS FROM THAT POINT ONWARD
TOWARD DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
MIDLANDS/CSRA AND PIEDMONT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH
PWAT 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MID- WEEK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY
TO KEEP THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
WILL WASH OUT BY MONDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...GIVEN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS OUTFLOWS FROM COLLAPSING
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GA ENTER THE AREA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE IMPACT TO TAF SITES REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
FOR CAE/CUB AND WILL UPDATE REMAINING SITES AS CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF CONVECTION LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND WILL ADJUST WITH UPCOMING
ISSUANCES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1202 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WESTERN HALF. RAP 0-500M RH IS
ELEVATED IN THESE SECTIONS. LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND MOIST
SOILS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST...SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATION FOG
FORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THE AIRMASS HAD DESTABILIZED COUPLED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING SHIFTING IT/S
FORCING INTO AND THEN QUICKLY EAST OF CENTRAL IOWA. EXPECT THE
AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL IOWA TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH. AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST THIS EVENING AND AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES...THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT
SHOULD INHIBIT NOCTURNAL STORMS TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY. HOWEVER...NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN PUBLIC FORECAST.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE TO IMPACT IOWA INTO FRIDAY. STILL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AND APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING NOT REAL STRAIGHT FORWARD DUE
TO SEVERAL NEGATIVE FACTORS INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH PWATS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. RESIDUAL DRIER AIR FROM THE
DEPARTING HIGH SHOULD LINGER INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND MORE FOCUSED OVER TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGRESSIVELY ZONAL WITH SUB
TROPICAL HIGH MOVING NORTH INTO THE SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ALSO
BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THAT AREA. HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY
THOUGH DIMINISHED THEM A BIT WITH THE OVERALL TRENDS FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN POPS MAY VERY WELL BE EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTH THEN POSSIBLE INITIATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHERN CANADA UPPER LOW WILL BE DICTATING THE UPPER FLOW AS
IT MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY THIS LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE
MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH A RETURN TO SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS IFR AT SEVERAL SITES...BUT
CROSSOVER TEMPS AND RECENT HISTORY SUGGEST THIS IS OVERDONE. HAVE
MENTIONED MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IN LOWER CATEGORIES INCREASES. DID DROP TO IFR AT KFOD HOWEVER
WHICH IS FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND ALREADY HAS HIGH RH. WINDS
SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP FRI AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
CERTAINLY NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
242 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2014
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...Unsettled and potentially very wet through the short term...
Some of you may be looking at the above headline and notice the word
wet and remain a bit dubious. We are in the weather pattern period of
scattered thunderstorms/MCS`s and those that experience activity right
over them will see heavy rainfall, while those nearby without thunderstorm
activity will see basically nothing. An example of that occurred last
night where the northern zones saw 4+", while the southern zones saw
0.00". A similar pattern is expected today and tonight. So... a break
down of the short term period:
This morning:
Main concern is watching convection across eastern Colorado. This activity
may impact the western zones early this morning. A secondary band is
possible later in the morning in association with warm air advection
and isentropic lift. The HRRR has indicated this along and south of
the Arkansas river.
Today/Tonight:
Main concern is late this evening. PWATs are forecast to be around 1.50",
which is near the +2SD mark. There is considerable disagreement between
the global models (GFS/EC) and convective allowing models (ARW, 4 km
NAM) in where the MCS will track. Have ramped up pops by late evening
and also increased QPF given the overall trend in the mesoscale pattern
of a heavy rain event. There is the potential for heavy rainfall from
00Z onward. Thermodynamics/kinematics are there for severe weather,
however, I have a few problems with this. First, forecast soundings
are rather moist adiabatic (however, probably somewhat influenced from
convection in the output), however, this leads to somewhat of a thick hail
growth zone, which is not conducive for significant hail growth. MUCAPE
of 1500 j/kg and 40+ kt of effective bulk shear do suggest the notion
of more organized convection, however, mid level lapse rates are not
that steep and upper level winds back with time, which increases precipitation
efficiency near/in the updraft of any organized storm. Given how moist
the atmosphere will be with the lack of upper level wind flow for the evacuation
of hydrometeors downstream, think the overall hail potential for tonight
is not that great. Running the parameters in the LHP algorithm comes
up with a value of 5. This suggests that golf balls would be on the
upper end of the hail size distribution. Other threats would be wet
microbursts of 60+ mph. The most significant threat would be very heavy
rainfall leading to flooding. As stated above, there is low confidence
is where the heavy precipitation will fall as models are in disagreement.
It is also foolish to state that 10.1 miles southwest of Dodge City
will see 1.34" of rain between 18Z today and 12Z tomorrow morning, as
this simply isn`t effective meteorology. We just don`t have that skill
to do that. Bottom line, if a storm festers over you, you could easily
see an 1"+ of rain, while your neighbor might see practically squat.
Lastly, SPC has some of the area in a 5 percent tornado, although I`m
not sure about that given weak 0-1 km bulk shear and any significant
STP is well south of the forecast area. This isn`t the environment for
discrete supercells but an amorphous blob of convection.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
For Saturday, some minor upper level disturbances are forecast
across the Central and Southern Plains with a cold front and
baroclinic zone south across west Texas into Oklahoma. A marginally
severe MCS will likely track south of Kansas along the baroclinic
zone with the best chances for thunderstorms across southern Kansas.
Highs on Saturday look fairly cool, with mostly cloudy skies, in the
mid to upper 70s.
For Sunday, a more substantial upper level trough moves across the
Plains on Sunday night with the ECMWF model showing thunderstorms
likely with another MCS while the GFS has most of the heavy rainfall
over far western Kansas. Current thoughts are severe chances do not
look all that good with moist adiabatic lapse rates. May need to
adjust precip chances upwards as the ECMWF shows heavy rainfall
potential. Highs still look fairly cool and only in the 70s.
For the period Monday into Thursday, a warming trend is in the
offing with highs warming back into the 80s Tuesday into Thursday
with lows in the 60s. Thunderstorms chances look minimal as an upper
level trough moves east of the region and minor upper level ridging
moves back into the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
Generally unsettled conditions through the TAF pd. MVFR cigs expected
this morning with lower clouds and/or reduced vis from br. Some morning
convection around, but low confidence in spatial and temporal arrangement.
Even more uncertainty towards the end of the TAF pd where more overnight
convection likely late tomorrow night. Will let later TAFs hammer those
details out due to confidence issues.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 63 78 60 / 70 80 40 40
GCK 83 62 76 59 / 70 70 40 40
EHA 82 62 78 59 / 70 70 50 50
LBL 84 63 79 61 / 70 70 50 50
HYS 83 62 77 59 / 70 80 50 30
P28 84 66 81 64 / 70 80 50 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
123 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2014
...Update to short term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...Unsettled and potentially very wet through the short term...
Some of you may be looking at the above headline and notice the word
wet and remain a bit dubious. We are in the weather pattern period of
scattered thunderstorms/MCS`s and those that experience activity right
over them will see heavy rainfall, while those nearby without thunderstorm
activity will see basically nothing. An example of that occurred last
night where the northern zones saw 4+", while the southern zones saw
0.00". A similar pattern is expected today and tonight. So... a break
down of the short term period:
This morning:
Main concern is watching convection across eastern Colorado. This activity
may impact the western zones early this morning. A secondary band is
possible later in the morning in association with warm air advection
and isentropic lift. The HRRR has indicated this along and south of
the Arkansas river.
Today/Tonight:
Main concern is late this evening. PWATs are forecast to be around 1.50",
which is near the +2SD mark. There is considerable disagreement between
the global models (GFS/EC) and convective allowing models (ARW, 4 km
NAM) in where the MCS will track. Have ramped up pops by late evening
and also increased QPF given the overall trend in the mesoscale pattern
of a heavy rain event. There is the potential for heavy rainfall from
00Z onward. Thermodynamics/kinematics are there for severe weather,
however, I have a few problems with this. First, forecast soundings
are rather moist adiabatic (however, probably somewhat influenced from
convection in the output), however, this leads to somewhat of a thick hail
growth zone, which is not conducive for significant hail growth. MUCAPE
of 1500 j/kg and 40+ kt of effective bulk shear do suggest the notion
of more organized convection, however, mid level lapse rates are not
that steep and upper level winds back with time, which increases precipitation
efficiency near/in the updraft of any organized storm. Given how moist
the atmosphere will be with the lack of upper level wind flow for the evacuation
of hydrometeors downstream, think the overall hail potential for tonight
is not that great. Running the parameters in the LHP algorithm comes
up with a value of 5. This suggests that golf balls would be on the
upper end of the hail size distribution. Other threats would be wet
microbursts of 60+ mph. The most significant threat would be very heavy
rainfall leading to flooding. As stated above, there is low confidence
is where the heavy precipitation will fall as models are in disagreement.
It is also foolish to state that 10.1 miles southwest of Dodge City
will see 1.34" of rain between 18Z today and 12Z tomorrow morning, as
this simply isn`t effective meteorology. We just don`t have that skill
to do that. Bottom line, if a storm festers over you, you could easily
see an 1"+ of rain, while your neighbor might see practically squat.
Lastly, SPC has some of the area in a 5 percent tornado, although I`m
not sure about that given weak 0-1 km bulk shear and any significant
STP is well south of the forecast area. This isn`t the environment for
discrete supercells but an amorphous blob of convection.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
The first few days of the extended period will continue to be fairly
active across the central High Plains. The 12z medium range models
continue to show an active southern branch of the westerlies
extending from off the coast of southern California eastward into
Kansas. In the lower levels, a quasi stationary frontal boundary
continues to extend from the eastern slopes of the Rockies in
Colorado eastward across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles eastward
across Oklahoma. Moist southerly flow from the Gulf continues to
advect northward into the central Plains. The models show this setup
continuing for a few more days.
Friday evening and night may be the most active time periods for
southwest Kansas storm-wise as a weak upper disturbance that is
currently approaching the west coast will move out over the central
High Plains. The models show some differences in how soon
thunderstorms will be developing and thunderstorm initiation and
movement out into western Kansas may not occur until evening. After
discussing the situation with the short term forecaster, we will
continue to have pops ramping up during the afternoon hours with
fairly high pops continuing through much of the evening before
tapering off late Friday night. There could be some lingering
showers and thunderstorms in central and south central Kansas
Saturday morning but think that these will be moving off to the east
fairly quickly.
There looks to be a lull in the activity during the day Saturday
with another round of storms moving off the eastern slopes and Raton
Mesa and impacting mainly the southern part of southwest Kansas
Saturday evening. For Sunday into Monday, upper level ridging builds
into the west coast of North America while a shortwave trough over
the northern Rockies moves southeast into the central Plains. This
system will likely bring another round of thunderstorms to western
Kansas Sunday evening into early Monday morning with precipitation
chances winding down during the day Monday.
Monday night and Tuesday should be fairly quiet as the upper level
ridge moves over the central Plains with increasing westerly flow
aloft by Tuesday night. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
should return Tuesday night as low level moisture along with some
mid level frontogenetic forcing returns to western Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
Generally unsettled conditions through the TAF pd. MVFR cigs expected
this morning with lower clouds and/or reduced vis from br. Some morning
convection around, but low confidence in spatial and temporal arrangement.
Even more uncertainty towards the end of the TAF pd where more overnight
convection likely late tomorrow night. Will let later TAFs hammer those
details out due to confidence issues.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 78 59 75 / 80 40 40 20
GCK 62 76 58 75 / 70 30 40 20
EHA 62 79 59 75 / 70 30 50 20
LBL 63 79 60 75 / 70 30 50 20
HYS 62 77 57 74 / 80 60 30 20
P28 66 82 62 77 / 80 60 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
118 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The main focus for the short term portion of the forecast package
is on precipitation chances across the southern and southwestern
portion of the forecast area through Friday night.
Keeping an eye on the diminishing precipitation shield north of the
convective band currently pushing east southeast through southeast
Missouri and northeast Arkansas. Not currently expecting that area
of rainfall to make it into our southwest counties, and the HRRR as
well as the RAP depict a similar scenario. However, it does bear
some watching.
Upper level ridging over the south-central portion of the U.S. will
be in place for much of the period. A series of upper waves is
progged to ride the top of the ridge into the Ohio Valley, the first
of which arrives tonight into Friday. The ECMWF and NAM bring the
effects of the wave into the southwest corner of the forecast area
in the way of increased precipitation chances, while the GFS leaves
the entire region dry until the next wave arrives during the
long-term portion of the forecast on Saturday afternoon/evening.
Decided to keep pops from previous forecast remaining in the
slight/low chance pop category. Near normal temperatures are
expected in most areas with highs in the low to middle 80s and lows
ranging 5 degrees either side of 60.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Upper ridging remains located over the south-central portion of
the U.S. to begin the long term period. This will continue with a
series of upper waves to traverse the top of the ridge into the
Ohio River Valley. A higher amplitude trough will approach the
forecast area to begin the work week on Monday as the trough digs
into the Mississippi River Valley. ECMWF and GFS are in fairly
good agreement with this feature, leading to a fairly active
extended timeframe.
Stuck close to regional initialization for POPs...with the highest
POPs on Saturday night and Sunday as the first of many upper
troughs push through the area. Expect shower and thunderstorm
chances to persist through mid-week as the remainder of the upper
disturbances move through the area. Below normal highs with near
normal lows look to be the rule as we head into this unsettled
portion of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2014
High pressure over the Great Lakes will send dry northeast surface
breezes into the Ohio Valley, keeping SDF and LEX weather VFR
through the period.
BWG is a bit more of a question mark, with more abundant low-level
moisture and closer proximity to the likely MCS track. Ceilings have
gone MVFR there, and the forecast will split the difference between
the too-pessimistic-as-usual NAM MOS and the GFS MOS which has not
picked up on this low cloud deck at all. Will keep it above fuel-
alternate thresholds, and then scatter out late morning. MCS that
has developed over the Ozarks should vector ESE into Tennessee,
and remain out of BWG. VFR with light E-NE winds from midday
onward.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........WFO IND
Long Term.........WFO IND
Aviation..........RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
359 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF UPPER MI THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SD/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THERE WAS SOME DISRUPTION TO
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH FROM MCC ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WAS EVIDENT BY GRAVITY WAVES SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...THE 12Z SUITE
OF MODELS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...SO CONCERNS ABOUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ARE MINIMAL.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH HAS INDUCED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NW WI AND FAR WEST UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THIS EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HANDLED PRECIP PATTERNS WELL OVER
THE LAST 18 HOURS...SO HAVE USED IT TO NARROW IN ON REGIONS OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THE RAP CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST ON SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS HOUGHTON AND AS FAR EAST
AS IMT AND ISHPEMING THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE NE...THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR AND DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
LAGGING 850 HPA TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CLEARING BEHIND THE H5 TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE H8 TROUGH STALLING AND
KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA...SO
CONTINUED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE HEATING
AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA...MORE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR CWA. WEAK S TO SW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE BREEZES
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...AND ALSO KEEP A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT AND
THIS TROUGH HEADS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z SUN AND THIS
TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SAT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. WILL HAVE A BAND OF POPS MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SAT AND SAT
NIGHT AND THEN HAVE THE POPS OUT OF THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON WITH IT
DRY FOR SUN NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS AND LOW LIKELY POPS AS THIS
MOVES THROUGH. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
FOR TEMPERATURES EXCEPT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON SAT
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES AROUND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10C...MIXING THIS DOWN TO THE SFC GIVES ME HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S AT BEST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE DESERT SW
12Z MON WITH A TROUGH IN THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z TUE AND THIS TROUGH STAYS PUT
INTO 12Z WED. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z
THU. A FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SO
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. SCT-BKN MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE THE RULE ALONG WITH ISOLD SHRA AS MID LEVEL TROF SHIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL OF -SHRA
AFFECTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS APPEARS QUITE LOW. LAKE BREEZES WILL
PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA THIS AFTN WITH KSAW
PROBABLY MORE LIKELY TO SEE SHRA IN THE VCNTY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER LOWER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERAL S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF UPPER MI THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SD/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THERE WAS SOME DISRUPTION TO
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH FROM MCC ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WAS EVIDENT BY GRAVITY WAVES SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...THE 12Z SUITE
OF MODELS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...SO CONCERNS ABOUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ARE MINIMAL.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH HAS INDUCED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NW WI AND FAR WEST UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THIS EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HANDLED PRECIP PATTERNS WELL OVER
THE LAST 18 HOURS...SO HAVE USED IT TO NARROW IN ON REGIONS OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THE RAP CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST ON SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS HOUGHTON AND AS FAR EAST
AS IMT AND ISHPEMING THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE NE...THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR AND DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
LAGGING 850 HPA TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CLEARING BEHIND THE H5 TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE H8 TROUGH STALLING AND
KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA...SO
CONTINUED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE HEATING
AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA...MORE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR CWA. WEAK S TO SW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE BREEZES
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...AND ALSO KEEP A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
FRI NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTING
FROM NRN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA NEAR
THE WI BORDER IN THE EVENING...A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND 700-500 MB QVECTOR
CONV INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
250-300 MB JET THAT SLIDES FROM NW ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES BAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI FOR
SOME TSRA...PER MODEL MUCAPE VALUES. HOWEVER...THUNDER IS LESS
LIKELY IN WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SUPPORTED BY 850-700 MB FGEN THAT IS
EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH POPS TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. INCREASING MID CLOUDS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR AS PWAT VALUES
CLIMB FROM NEAR 0.25 INCH TO 0.50 INCH.
MON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PCPN CHANCES GIVEN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DRY GFS/GEM AND WET ECMWF WHICH BRINGS A
STRONGER AND MORE PHASED MID LEVEL TROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS. FOR
NOW...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE(CONSENSUS) POPS WERE INCLUDED.
TUE-THU...A DRY PERIOD IS MORE LIKELY FROM TUE INTO WED AS RIDGING
AGAIN TAKES OVER. A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THU
BRINGS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND
RETURN OF MOISTURE THAT COULD BRING PCPN TO THE AREA. MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT
INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. SCT-BKN MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE THE RULE ALONG WITH ISOLD SHRA AS MID LEVEL TROF SHIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL OF -SHRA
AFFECTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS APPEARS QUITE LOW. LAKE BREEZES WILL
PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA THIS AFTN WITH KSAW
PROBABLY MORE LIKELY TO SEE SHRA IN THE VCNTY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER LOWER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERAL S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1203 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 910 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Making some changes to the forecast for the rest of tonight.
Primarily to PoPs. Looks like focus for convection will be down
across southern Missouri and that the storms up in Iowa which
might have threatened parts of northeast Missouri/west central
Illinois have pretty much died out. With the shortwave moving
rapidly east through the Upper Mississippi Valley, I think
regeneration is unlikely. Latest RAP and HRRR still indicate that
some of the southern convection could clip the far southern
portions of our CWFA overnight, but it looks like the vast
majority of our area should stay dry.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Unsettled weather is expected to continue over the next several
days due to multiple shortwaves interacting with a quasistationary
front as it sloshes back and forth across the region.
Tonight...There are two areas where precipitation is possible this
evening and overnight. The first area is across the northern CWA
within a zone of ascent ahead of an elongated mid/upper trough
moving through the northern plains. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA have
already developed along an upstream surface trough/front in NE/KS
aided by ascent from this trough, and the precip could move
eastward into northeast MO/west central IL if it persists.
However, the H5 trough axis is forecast to move quickly eastward,
and upstream SHRA/TSRA may not persist long enough to reach the
LSX CWA in the absence of upper level support.
The second area is across the far southern CWA where a developing
LLJ should interact with a quasistationary front across southern
MO, leading to another MCS tonight. The position of the synoptic
scale quasistationary boundary has been pushed farther south by a
mesoscale outflow boundary from the large MCS which moved across
southwestern MO earlier today. Initial thoughts are that today`s
MCS will have pushed the effective boundary far enough south that
the main precip threat from an MCS during the overnight hours
should be south of the CWA, although there is uncertainty about
the location of scattered WAA pcpn. This fits reasonably well with
forecasts from the local WRF, GFS, and ECMWF regarding placement
of MUCAPE and H7-H85 moisture convergence. The areal coverage of
likely PoPs has been reduced accordingly, although it may still be
too high depending on where the MCS forms.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Friday through Sunday...There may be a brief break in the
precipitation on Friday due to shortwave ridging aloft across most
of the area. Scattered SHRA/TSRA remain possible across the
southern CWA due to the presence of a boundary and weak
shortwaves.
High pressure moving out of Canada will push a cold front into the
northern and central plains on Fri night and Sat, but this
boundary appears to remain distinct from the quasistationary
front/developing warm front located farther south, at least
initially. In any event, precipitation should spread across the
area on Sat/Sat night due to a combination of factors associated
with an approaching shortwave, starting with a developing H85 LLJ
on Fri night which will interact with the quasistationary boundary
across MO/KS, leading to increasing precipitation chances by
daybreak as the shortwave progresses eastward. Isentropic ascent
also increases along the 305-315 K surfaces during the day on Sat
as the boundary starts to lift north as a warm front. Models have
been consistently showing that this shortwave also induces a
surface low along the western part of the stalled boundary (which
may have been reinforced by the cold front dropping south out of
the northern plains) which then tracks northeastward through MO
into IL. Forecast PW values of 1.8-2" on Sat are at +2 SD for June
across this part of the country, suggesting that locally heavy
rainfall is possible. The precipitation should taper off on late
Sat night with the passage of the shortwave. Another shortwave may
or may not approach the area on Sunday, but it is difficult to
discern whether this feature is a shortwave or the result of
convective feedback.
Monday through Wednesday...Compared to the 04/12z runs and the
05/00z runs, the 05/12z model runs have come into astounding
agreement regarding the large scale pattern during Mon-Wed.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all show a closed low developing over the central
CONUS after two vort maxes become phased over MO/AR/IL. Despite
the remarkable agreement between models, I am hesitant to buy into
this solution right away because it seems unlikely that all of the
models are accurately capturing the timing and placement of weak,
unsampled, and occasionally ill-defined shortwaves this far in
advance and in the presence of convective feedback issues. Due to
low confidence, this forecast package generally followed the
recommended CR initialization for Mon-Wed.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Latest surface analysis shows convective generated outflow
boundary continues to extend from north-central Oklahoma through
far northwest Arkansas then southeast into northern Alabama. This
front will begin to move northeast late Friday evening and early
Saturday morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Clear skies will give way to lower
visibilities in light fog after 0900 UTC Scattered to borken layer
of stratus around 010 kft may form after 0900 UTC. Stratus clouds
will give way to scattered clouds above 030 kft after 1400 UTC.
Winds will be light and variable.
RP
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND DISSOLVE EARLY
SUNDAY... AS MOIST AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC....WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SANDHILLS. THIS IS ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
FILTER SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHILE RETARDING THE FLOW A
BIT OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN....WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. BY ALL ACCOUNTS...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SC BORDER THIS MORNING...LIKELY
SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL FORCING MAY COME FROM A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY...WHICH CROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
UPSTREAM PERTURBATION AND THE POOLING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOWING
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE PIEDMONT. WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...WITH A LOW END
CHANCE FROM FAYETTEVILLE/CLINTON TO THE SOUTHEAST. MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25KT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. HIGHS 83-88.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT....BUT
LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET WILL END THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THOUGH THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL STAY NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. DEWPOINTS
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NC
COASTAL AREA...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN ACROSS WESTERN NC...WHILE
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC AS MOST NWP SHOWS...THEN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION
TO DRIFTING EAST INTO THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE THE CWA
WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL IN THE 83-87 RANGE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM FRIDAY...
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE DAY CENTERED
JUST OFF THE VA TIDEWATER AND COVERING NE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING. AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE DISSIPATES... THIS FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER TO A
CONFLUENT MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW SUN NIGHT... GETTING US BACK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A FRONT SITTING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MID LEVELS FEATURE WEAK WAVY BUT MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW... WITH ONE POTENT WAVE SHIFTING OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST AND ANOTHER SLOWLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS
FROM THE WEST. PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES (OVER 160% OF
NORMAL) OVER THE WRN CWA WHERE THE MOISTURE FLUX WILL HAVE BEEN OF
LONGER DURATION... AND WITH ASSUMED LIFT ASSISTANCE PROVIDED BY WEAK
DPVA FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORM TO
FORM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN... WORKING INTO THE
FAR WRN CWA... AND WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THIS AREA STARTING SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS ABOVE NORMAL PW SHOULD THEN SPREAD EASTWARD SUN
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE THE WEAK
MID LEVEL FLOW AND DECREASING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO DIMINISHING CONVECTION... THE MINOR DPVA ALONG WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE (RESULTING IN PART FROM THE SLOWLY INCREASING MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND APPROACHING 700 MB
TROUGH) SHOULD KEEP THE COLUMN VOLATILE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO SUN NIGHT OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR ERN CWA... WITH POPS HIGHER WEST THAN EAST... UNDER
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. HIGHS 84-88 AND LOWS 65-69.
FOR MON-THU: MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS OVER THE PLAINS EARLY MON...
WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RISING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER NC
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER BOTH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF THIS WAVE INTO A LOW OVER
MO/AR BY LATE TUE... THEREBY BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
CAROLINAS. SO AS WE HOLD WITHIN A REGIME FEATURING VERY WEAK
STEERING AND HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT... WITH A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH AT
THE SURFACE... EXPECT A BETTER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGY CHANCE OF DAILY
SHOWERS/STORMS MON/TUE... FOCUSED FROM (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. THE MID LEVEL LOW THEN DRIFTS
EASTWARD WED/THU WHILE ELONGATING NORTH-SOUTH... APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS LATE THU. WILL CONTINUE GOOD CHANCES OF DAILY
SHOWERS/STORMS WED/THU AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY INCREASES WITH
PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR TO ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW SOUTH IF THE NC/SC
BORDER. A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY POPPED UP NEAR
KRDU...AND WHILE THESE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONE IMPACTING A TAF SITE IS VERY LOW.
INSTEAD...THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD IS SOME PATCHY STRATUS THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...SPREADING AS FAR WEST AS KRDU.
NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS STRATUS SPREADING TO THE SOUTH
AS THE COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS BEEN MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH
NC...MOVES SOUTH. THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO 12Z THIS MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MEDIUM AT THIS POINT.
WHAT STRATUS THAT IS LEFT AFTER SUNRISE WILL LIFT ABOVE 3K FEET AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER WHERE THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL.
OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
101 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH ITS
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
MONTANA AND REACHING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER
LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH
ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING EAST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER IN THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. THIS IMPULSE IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH TIME DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THUS CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD...AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE PRECIP
CHANCES. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. CAPE VALUES DECREASE AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
A RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT RACING AHEAD OF A LINE OF
DISSIPATING CONVECTION ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS STARTING
TO LOSE ITS STEAM THIS EVENING. IT WAS GENERATING GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH OVER THE LAST HOUR. WIND GUSTS ARE NOW AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER
THE GUST FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THE WEAKENING TRENDS...WILL
FOREGO ANY ADDITION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN.
SHIFTING FOCUS WESTWARD...AN AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE
INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE THE EVENING IS OVER.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR WEAKENS THIS ACTIVITY TO SHOWERS AFTER
06Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CASE ANY STORMS STRENGTHEN.
FOR NOW HIGHLIGHTED THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY SOUTHWEST IN THE
HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BELCOURT SOUTHWEST TO
WASHBURN AND INTO GLEN ULLEN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AROUND 30 MPH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 03Z. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS (CAPE AROUND 400 J/KG) ARE TOO LOW FOR THESE STORMS TO
ACHIEVE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STATUS THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG A THETA-E BOUNDARY TO SET
UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN 80+ KNOT JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO
ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CANADA AND BECOME SITUATED
OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA/NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHOULD GENERATE LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL ONLY INDICATE RAIN SHOWER CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO SHOWERS FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA FOR FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR TIOGA IN EASTERN
WILLIAMS COUNTY TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...BUT AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
BE WIDESPREAD. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RANGED FROM 250-1000
J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE WEAK...AND MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC INDICATES LITTLE OR NO
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE IS
NEAR A RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THUS HAVE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 25-30 PERCENT ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LATER TONIGHT...MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
UTAH IS PROGGED TO ENTER WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER
MONTANA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT`S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SET UP AN OVERRUNNING PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST - BUT THINKING A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY EXPECTING SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FEW
SCATTERED BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION AS THE BELT OF WESTERLIES IS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH FORCING/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CONCENTRATED MAINLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP SOME HIGH POPS IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF ND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
CHANCES QUICKLY TAPERING OFF INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FORCING
MOVES FARTHER EAST. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT
SHOWERS/VIRGA DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH MODELS
PORTRAYING SOME WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY...MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S
ACCOMPANYING HIGH PRESSURE.
NEXT UPPER LEVEL S/WV TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE.
ACTIVE FLOW THEREAFTER WITH SEVERAL MORE S/WV`S MOVING THROUGH IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GENERATING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY-THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW UNTIL MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WHEN MID RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A WARMING TREND AND
OUR FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KISN AND KMOT.
HOWEVER EXPECT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS TO
INCREASE...THEN CEILINGS DECREASING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AT AT KDIK WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THESE MVFR
CIGS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD TO KBIS BY
AROUND 15Z AND AT KJMS BY AROUND 18Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST
TO EAST AFT 00Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
231 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA. LATEST RADARS
INDICATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MOVING EAST...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THINK THIS CLUSTER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN HAZARD. LATEST HRRR RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND A
FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT
TOO STRONG...WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE FROM OCCURRING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA AROUND 6 OR 7 AM. WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
THIS AFTERNOON...REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS MAY OCCUR...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS WILL
RECOVER AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST. STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...SO STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE GREATER. PINPOINTING
EXACTLY WHERE THIS COMPLEX WILL OCCUR REMAINS CHALLENGING...BUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA HAS THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS
WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES EXIST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WITH SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD EACH DAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.
DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST STORMS AND RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS IN BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE.
FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHICH AREAS WILL GET THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 69 89 69 / 70 40 40 60
HOBART OK 92 69 90 68 / 20 40 30 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 74 97 71 / 20 20 20 40
GAGE OK 90 67 84 64 / 50 70 40 60
PONCA CITY OK 85 68 85 67 / 50 70 60 60
DURANT OK 87 72 92 71 / 50 30 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.AVIATION...
TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESP NEAR AND NORTH OF WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS AT CNTRL/NRN OK SITES
OVERNIGHT AS STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN OK
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO CONT TO
DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD MOVE
IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AFFECTING PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT
THINKING ALONG WITH SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS AND SKY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
AVIATION...
MOIST AND UNSTBLE BUT CAPPED AMS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. GENLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. GENLY WILL GO ALONG
WITH SOME OF THE HI RES MODEL DATA WHICH SHOWS MCS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL GENLY USE THAT TIMING
FOR THE TEMPO TSRA GROUPS. SOME RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN
THE MORNING THEN BECOMING GENLY VFR AGAIN AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY.
PREV DISCUSSIION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED INTERACTION BETWEEN A SURFACE FRONT...CAPPING
INVERSION...AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO THE WEST...WILL LEAD TO GREAT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SEEMINGLY THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR OUTLOOK. IT GENERATES
STORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...THEN BRINGS THEM
EAST WHILE CONVERTING THEM INTO AN MCS. IF THIS HAPPENS...MOST OF
OUR OKLAHOMA COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE RAIN...AND POSSIBLY STRONG
WINDS.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAKS ARE LIKELY. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE TIMING AND LOCATION. CHANCES DO
RISE...HOWEVER...OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVES PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA ON
TUESDAY...PROBABLY BRINGING A RELATIVELY MILD AND DRY DAY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 91 73 88 / 50 40 40 40
HOBART OK 72 98 72 91 / 40 20 40 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 100 74 100 / 30 10 20 20
GAGE OK 67 91 69 83 / 50 40 70 40
PONCA CITY OK 72 85 72 84 / 60 50 70 60
DURANT OK 74 94 73 92 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
428 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THREE AREAS OF CONCERN FOR ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY. STRONG HEATING INTO
THE 80S AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING THREE BOUNDARIES TO BECOME A POTENTIAL
CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL
POSE THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. FURTHER NORTHEAST...A SECOND
AREA OF CONCERN WILL FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. AGAIN...THIN ELEVATED
CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED HERE...HOWEVER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER IN THIS AREA. STILL THINK HAIL TO GOLF
BALL SIZE AND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT NEAR HIGHWAY 14. THE THIRD AREA OF CONCERN IS
MORE OF A WILD CARD. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED NEAR THE I29
CORRIDOR AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY. PER USUAL...MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE SOMEWHAT HINTING AT
CONVECTION NEAR THE IOWA AND MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS
WILL IMPACT THINGS...ONLY ADDED SCATTERED MENTION OF STORMS HERE.
LIKE THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...SHEAR IS LESS IMPRESSIVE BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM - SO WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AREA AS WELL. WITH A LATER START EXPECTED TO THE WET
WEATHER AND GOOD HEATING...DID BUMP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HALF INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE BACK OVER AN
INCH SO ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
QUITE A BIT COOLER IN OUR WEST AND NORTH...AS COOL AS NEAR
50S...HOWEVER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY. PROBABLY WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. AS
THE WAVE MOVES EAST...WE BEGIN TO SEE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION THREAT BY AFTERNOON.
STILL WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
HELPING LOW STRATUS STICK AROUND. ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
60S...AND IF THE STRATUS ENDS UP A BIT THICKER...WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS...WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME 40S FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANOTHER PRETTY GOOD
WAVE AND AREA OF LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE CWA LATER
SUNDAY. SO THINK MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS BOTH THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SEEM
ABUNDANT ENOUGH. REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO WILL JUST GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER FOR NOW. WITH
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN ON SUNDAY...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S.
MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO START
MONDAY...OTHERWISE WOULD EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THOUGH...WITH LOW 70S. WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN ADVECTING BACK INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL UNCERTAIN
EXACTLY HOW GOOD OF A CHANCE THIS IS. BEST UPPER FORCING MAY END UP
SPLITTING OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...HOWEVER A BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY APPROACH OR CROSS THE CWA...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNING BY THIS TIME...THE CHANCE POPS SEEM WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF PERIODS OF CONVECTION AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. COULD
SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF
I-29 BUT SHORT NIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF FOG.
THEREAFTER...LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. DID NOT GET TOO FANCY WITH CONVECTION CHANCES...AND
LEFT MENTION OUT AFTER 00Z DESPITE ONGOING CONVECTION CHANCES
FRIDAY EVENING AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
307 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A WEAK BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TYS AND
TRI...EVIDENCED BY A DEWPOINT GRADIENT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE
SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY TODAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN OUR AREA...WITH THE
NAM AND LOCAL WRF SHOWING VERY LITTLE...AND THE RUC AND HRRR SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
SOUTH...BUT STAY IN THE CHANCE RANGE. MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OZARKS
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS
ALSO WHERE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE. THUS MOST
CONVECTION IN OUR AREA SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND WILL DROP
POPS BACK AFTER SUNSET.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THUSRDAY)... WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE FOR SATURDAY WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR
CHANCE POPS NEAR BOUNDARY AND FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS/SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
FOR SUNDAY...GFS SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE AND CYCLO-GENESIS MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH BOUNDARY PULLING BACK NORTH. NAM/ECMWF DOES NOT
SHOW THIS SURFACE REFLECTION. WILL CALL FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITH BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO
AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH WEST
OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY POPS
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING. ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...LOCALL HEAVY RAINFALL AND MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GFS MOS OR WENT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN HIGHS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 66 89 69 / 50 30 30 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 64 88 66 / 20 20 20 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 64 88 66 / 20 10 20 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 57 85 59 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1146 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS AT KLBB WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO A
LOW LEVEL JET THAT HAS FORMED. CHANCES OF THUNDER LOOK EVEN LESS
LIKELY AT KCDS TONIGHT WITH MOST IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY MISSING THE
REGION TO THE NORTH. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST TOMORROW EVENING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO KCDS. ALTHOUGH ANY MENTION
IN THE TAF IS NOT WARRANTED AT THE MOMENT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...
SLIGHT COOLING SPREAD IN BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY.
IT HAS BEEN HEATING UP SOME ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NOW
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH FROM AROUND O`DONNELL THROUGH POST TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE. AIRMASS THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
A BIT SHORT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. SHORT TERM RAP SOLUTION...
HOWEVER...HAS INSISTED ON BREAKING THUNDERSTORMS OUT ALL DAY NEAR
ABOVE-MENTIONED BOUNDARY WHICH GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE BASE AND VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT CERTAINLY IS NOT A GIVEN. WE WILL HOLD TO A
CONDITIONAL LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THIS ZONE DURING THE EVENING
WHICH WOULD GIVE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER TONIGHT WOULD FOLLOW THE PATH OF PROJECTED MCS
FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL OUTFLOWS AND THUNDER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY EDGING
INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO LAY ANOTHER FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON OUR DOOR-STEP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A MORE MOIST
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PROBABLY PRECEDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MCS-TYPE STORMS FROM VICINITY RATON MESA OR SANGRE DE CHRISTI
TOWARDS OUR AREA LATE TOMORROW. MINUSCULE TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR
TOMORROW FOLLOWING ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND IMPROVING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GRAZE THE REGION AND
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS IN/NEAR THE AREA.
INITIALLY...FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES MAY RESIDE TO OUR NORTH...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE THE COMPLEX COULD CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY THERE FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD
THEN MATERIALIZE LATE SATURDAY AS THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED SURFACE
BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHWARD AND ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH DETAILS REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS...THERE
APPEARS A GOOD SHOT OF ANOTHER MCS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE NWP TENDS TO FAVOR THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR THIS MCS...AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS
WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...THOUGH IF THE 12Z NAM IS
CORRECT...THE FRONT AND CONVECTION WILL BE SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH
INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND WITH THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW LIKELY TO OUR SOUTH...THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND
UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. MODEST INSTABILITY AND
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING PWATS WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY GRADUALLY WANE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND EVEN THOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL...LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO OUR WEST TO PERSIST INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE TEMPERED BACK POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION FOR
MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN TRY
AND BUILD BACK THIS WAY FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO...THOUGH ONE OR MORE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY COULD PERHAPS
IMPROVE STORM CHANCES LOCALLY. CONFIDENCE ON IF/WHEN STORM CHANCES
WOULD PEAK NEXT WEEK IS LOW...AND HAVE KEPT THE POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY /ASSUMING
THE COLD FRONT IS NOT WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE/...WITH A NICE COOL
DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEHIND THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD FOLLOW NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK...THOUGH THE GFS DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAK FROPA TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 95 65 89 61 / 20 20 40 20 50
TULIA 67 95 67 88 63 / 20 10 30 20 50
PLAINVIEW 69 94 69 92 64 / 20 10 20 20 40
LEVELLAND 68 96 69 95 66 / 20 10 20 20 30
LUBBOCK 71 97 70 96 67 / 20 10 10 20 30
DENVER CITY 67 97 68 99 67 / 20 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 66 96 69 97 67 / 20 10 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 73 99 72 95 68 / 20 10 30 20 50
SPUR 72 97 71 96 68 / 20 10 10 20 30
ASPERMONT 73 100 73 99 70 / 20 10 10 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1140 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Previous terminals still look good. Models this cycle continue to
disagree regarding MVFR ceilings; the NAM is more aggressive than
the GFS. Given limited confidence, continuing MVFR ceilings only for
our southern two terminals looks best.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Stratus return overnight, with MVFR ceilings, continues to look
likely for our southern two terminals. Thus, previous terminals
looked good.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
Mid-level heights have decreased slightly from those observed
yesterday but temperatures continue to climb above normal across the
western half of the Lone Star State. The flow aloft over West
Central TX is light owing to the presence of the subtropical ridge,
but strong westerlies north of the ridge continue to promote lee
troughing, maintaining a persistent, southerly flow. This has kept
dewpoints well into the 60s, which combined with these warm
temperatures, has resulted in heat indices near 100 degrees.
Some enhancement has been noted in the water vapor imagery over the
southern High Plains. There isn`t much curvature in the flow but
mesoscale ascent tied to the right entrance region of the upper
tropospheric jet streak over the Central Plains is the likely
culprit. At the surface, a weak cold front has moved south and was
near a Hobbs, to Spur, to Childress line as of 3 PM. There isn`t
currently much in the way of a cu field along this boundary but it`s
worth noting that the RAP and several of the hi-res CAMS are trying
to develop thunderstorms this evening, mainly west and northwest of
Sweetwater. The cap remains quite strong and any thunderstorm threat
is conditional on surface temps being warm enough to break said cap.
However, given the steering flow being slightly north of west,
convection is unlikely across the SJT CWA and the dry forecast has
been retained. Farther south, expect low clouds to develop again
late tonight, spreading north to near a San Angelo to Brownwood line
by sunrise. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.
The 800-750 mb thermal ridge (with temps of 19-22C) overspreading
the area today is progged to cool by a few degrees on Friday, but
we`ll maintain above normal temperatures once again, with highs in
the mid to upper 90s. Any clouds that develop overnight will erode
by midday, leaving a scattered cu field over the east during the
afternoon hours with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. South winds will
continue at 10 to 20 mph.
Johnson
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
The main forecast concerns are with rain chances Saturday night
through Monday night, with a potential for strong/severe storms
and locally heavy rainfall. Overall, appears that the northeastern
third or half of our area could have the best rain chance and
rainfall amounts.
Will have one additional hot day Saturday, with the broad, flat
ridge aloft still holding in place. This ridge will then weaken and
be suppressed farther to the south and southwest, as weak shortwaves
move across the southern Rockies, southern Plains and Texas.
Models are at odds on whether convection will develop south into
our northern counties Saturday night, and on how far south the
effective surface cold front will sag. Continuing with slight
chance PoP for our northern counties (along/north of Interstate 20).
Low-level jet would help to sustain convection well into the night.
The best chance and coverage of convection across our area looks
to develop across our northern counties late Sunday afternoon,
expanding southeast Sunday night. This may be ehnanced by a shortwave
tracking into the area, and may have a MCS Saturday night sustained
by low-level jet. With uncertainty in the forecast timing and
placement of weak shortwaves and on where the effective front will
be, raising PoPs cautiously Sunday night across much of our area,
with low PoPs continuing on Monday.
Northwest flow aloft develops on Monday and continues through
Tuesday. Have held off carrying slight chance PoP beyond Monday
night, but this will need to be monitored. The setup aloft may be
conducive for showers/thunderstorms to develop over the higher
terrain of northeastern new Mexico during the afternoon hours,
especially especially if coincident with the arrival of a weak
shortwave. The steering flow aloft would allow this convection to
move southeast toward (possibly into) our area.
Still looking hotter and drier for the middle to late part of
next week, when the upper high over the Baja Peninsula and
western Mexico tries to expand northeast again into Texas.
Have trended hotter with the maximum temperatures, but not to
the extent indicated by the GFS.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 73 97 73 96 74 / 10 5 10 10 20
San Angelo 73 98 73 98 73 / 5 0 5 5 10
Junction 72 95 73 94 73 / 0 0 0 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation: Huber
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1109 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.AVIATION...
EXPECTING MVFR STRATUS IN METROPLEX JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BURNING
OFF BY NOON. CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AT WACO.
SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD.
CONVECTION FORMING NEAR PALMER DIVIDE IN COLORADO SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS KS/OK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW
STORMS TRACKING NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AND POSSIBLY
AFFECTING BYP OR UKW NEAR SUNRISE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS
IN METROPLEX THROUGH FRIDAY MIDNIGHT. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW A MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THAT WOULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING FRIDAY. THE RUC KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH
WHILE THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS IS NOT HIGH
BUT 20 PERCENT POPS ARE WARRANTED SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGE TO
THE WEATHER GRIDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE ONLY CHANGE THAT
WAS MADE WAS FOR THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS. UPDATES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM A STRONG MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE PLAINS
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAVE HELPED PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THE FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE IT REACHES OUR CWA...IT REPRESENTS AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE A
FAVORABLE REGION FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS
A LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO AID IN THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG MCS...WE STILL EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY TRY TO CONGEAL INTO A WEAK MCS. SHOULD A MCS
DEVELOP...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF
THIS SYSTEM TO CLIP THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY RESULT WILL BE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER...WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING RATHER UNLIKELY.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL HEAD FARTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH THAT IS PARKED OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO WANDER INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY.
CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL OCCUR BY SUNDAY AS
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO ERODE THE RIDGE FROM
THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY ERODE OVER TEXAS
BY MONDAY...WHICH CERTAINLY IS SOME GOOD NEWS FOR RAIN CHANCES.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS ENOUGH BY THEN IT COULD
ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW WILL SHOW JUST LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER ALTOGETHER. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY WHEN A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO A MCS WHICH WOULD TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 30
TO 50 PERCENT OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY LOOK MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS. SINCE WE ARE EXPECTING A MCS DURING THE COOLER PART OF
THE DAY...THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WINDS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE MCS...SO IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO SAY WHO WILL
GET THIS MUCH RAIN AND WHO WILL BE GREEN WITH ENVY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD END THE CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN JUNE CAN OFTEN RESULT IN SURPRISE RAIN
EVENTS DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS IN THE MODEL DATA THAT THIS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY BECOMES AVAILABLE...WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL THERE IS SOME BETTER CONSISTENCY.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S...AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HIGH TEMPS WILL
COOL A BIT BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION.
THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH JUST A GRADUAL WARMING.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 94 75 94 76 / 5 10 5 5 10
WACO, TX 73 91 73 92 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 72 91 72 91 73 / 10 20 10 10 20
DENTON, TX 75 94 73 93 74 / 10 10 10 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 74 92 73 91 74 / 10 10 10 10 20
DALLAS, TX 75 93 75 93 75 / 5 10 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 76 92 74 93 76 / 5 10 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 73 91 72 91 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 72 91 72 92 74 / 5 5 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 96 71 96 72 / 10 5 5 5 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
251 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXITING PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING... POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IF/WHEN MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...WEAK RIDGING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA...AND A
SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN. THE WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS...NOW MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE...DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY WEAK 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON WATER
VAPOR...THOUGH. SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE.
WITHIN THE CLEAR SKIES LAYED A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE...
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN. IN ITS
WAKE...A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS BEEN GENERATING
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
COMBINATION OF RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND 06.06Z RAP DATA SUGGESTS THE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 15Z...AND PERHAPS 12Z. DID INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER GIVEN PERSISTENT LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE SHORTWAVE CORE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL THEN CLIMB OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE CORE OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WOULD NORMALLY MAKE ONE THINK OF A DRY FORECAST
DUE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...THE 06.00Z GFS/HIRES
ARW/REGIONAL CANADIAN/SPC WRF-NMM AND 06.05Z HRRR ALL WANT TO
DEVELOP ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FORCED EITHER FROM THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT MARCHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO NORTHERN
WI...OR FROM PURE INSTABILITY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE CAPPING
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60...BUT THE CAPE THAT DOES DEVELOP IS SKINNY.
BELIEVE THE 80S ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THAT WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF
SUN AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C BY 00Z. THE DEWPOINTS ARE
ALSO REASONABLE SEEING LOW 60S EXISTED LAST EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SO IN SUMMARY...DESPITE THE 500MB RIDGING...FEEL SOME 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES ARE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WENT WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GIVEN THE VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE PROGGED
AND EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE.
FOR THOSE MODELS THAT DEVELOP SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY ALL
AGREE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
IN THE EVENING. THUS ONLY HAVE THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES GOING TIL
02Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONGOING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
BAND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND WILL DEPEND
ON BOTH HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKE IT.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND CENTRAL WI BY 12Z...WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCES LATE IN
THE NIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA IN THE EVENT THE BAND
MAKES IT IN. MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR THE BAND TO AFFECT
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MAIN LONG TERM ISSUES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AND
MONDAY.
SATURDAY IS AN INTERESTING SETUP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A FAIRLY WOUND UP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING KS...MO AND IL WHILE
WEAK TROUGHING CROSSES MN. THESE TWO FEATURES COME TOGETHER A BIT AT
THE SURFACE BY CONVERTING THAT COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH...SOMETHING MORE SIMILAR WE LOOK FOR
IN WINTER. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SOME OF THE MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED-NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO HIT THE
LOW 60S AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF IT.
AGAIN SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPPING WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
WEAK TROUGHING COMING IN. CAPE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE...251-750
J/KG 0- 1KM MIXED LAYER...SUPPORTING MORE THUNDER. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM
SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH STAY LESS THAN 25KT...THUS LITTLE
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN. PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY CLIMBS TO 1.3-1.4
INCHES SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN A LITTLE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK TROUGH AND WOUND UP SHORTWAVE
PUSH EASTWARD. DID KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH THE 06.00Z GFS/NAM.
WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH...TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...LOOKS TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 06.00Z ECMWF REMAINS PERSISTENT
IN BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WHILE THE
06.00Z GFS/CANADIAN ARE DRY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
ECMWF...FEEL 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOPEFULLY MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH LATER CYCLES. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ON MONDAY ARE EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. THE WETTER ECMWF WOULD
MEAN HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
CWA...WHILE THE DRIER GFS/CANADIAN WOULD BE MID TO UPPER 70S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR TROUGHING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
RESULTING IN RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE
ALSO SUGGESTIONS OF AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSING FROM KS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. FOR THE MOST PART THIS SHOULD YIELD A
DRY PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE BEGUN TO TREND THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. STILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RELATED TO A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...
WEDNESDAYS CHANCES ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODERATE TO BACK
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE COOLER MONDAY. COULD SEE ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
LAST OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS ARE MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF KLSE
AND DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY THREAT OF RAIN FOR EITHER TAF SITES.
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT BEHIND THE SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM AT KRST WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN DID FALL
DURING THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHOWING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT TO COVER THIS FOG FORMATION. THE CONCERN
THEN BECOMES WHETHER ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE 06.00Z NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
BRINGING THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA AND DEVELOPING
SOME ACTIVITY ALONG IT. IT IS DOING THIS DESPITE SHOWING RISING
HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM
TONIGHT AND LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IT TRIES TO SHOW
RAIN WITH VERY WEAK VERTICAL VELOCITIES OR SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING.
WITH VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FROM THE 05.21Z SREF AND THE 05.12Z
ECMWF BEING DRY...WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY AS WELL WITH SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT COULD GO TO A VFR CEILING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
625 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2014
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...Unsettled and potentially very wet through the short term...
Some of you may be looking at the above headline and notice the word
wet and remain a bit dubious. We are in the weather pattern period of
scattered thunderstorms/MCS`s and those that experience activity right
over them will see heavy rainfall, while those nearby without thunderstorm
activity will see basically nothing. An example of that occurred last
night where the northern zones saw 4+", while the southern zones saw
0.00". A similar pattern is expected today and tonight. So... a break
down of the short term period:
This morning:
Main concern is watching convection across eastern Colorado. This activity
may impact the western zones early this morning. A secondary band is
possible later in the morning in association with warm air advection
and isentropic lift. The HRRR has indicated this along and south of
the Arkansas river.
Today/Tonight:
Main concern is late this evening. PWATs are forecast to be around 1.50",
which is near the +2SD mark. There is considerable disagreement between
the global models (GFS/EC) and convective allowing models (ARW, 4 km
NAM) in where the MCS will track. Have ramped up pops by late evening
and also increased QPF given the overall trend in the mesoscale pattern
of a heavy rain event. There is the potential for heavy rainfall from
00Z onward. Thermodynamics/kinematics are there for severe weather,
however, I have a few problems with this. First, forecast soundings
are rather moist adiabatic (however, probably somewhat influenced from
convection in the output), however, this leads to somewhat of a thick hail
growth zone, which is not conducive for significant hail growth. MUCAPE
of 1500 j/kg and 40+ kt of effective bulk shear do suggest the notion
of more organized convection, however, mid level lapse rates are not
that steep and upper level winds back with time, which increases precipitation
efficiency near/in the updraft of any organized storm. Given how moist
the atmosphere will be with the lack of upper level wind flow for the evacuation
of hydrometeors downstream, think the overall hail potential for tonight
is not that great. Running the parameters in the LHP algorithm comes
up with a value of 5. This suggests that golf balls would be on the
upper end of the hail size distribution. Other threats would be wet
microbursts of 60+ mph. The most significant threat would be very heavy
rainfall leading to flooding. As stated above, there is low confidence
is where the heavy precipitation will fall as models are in disagreement.
It is also foolish to state that 10.1 miles southwest of Dodge City
will see 1.34" of rain between 18Z today and 12Z tomorrow morning, as
this simply isn`t effective meteorology. We just don`t have that skill
to do that. Bottom line, if a storm festers over you, you could easily
see an 1"+ of rain, while your neighbor might see practically squat.
Lastly, SPC has some of the area in a 5 percent tornado, although I`m
not sure about that given weak 0-1 km bulk shear and any significant
STP is well south of the forecast area. This isn`t the environment for
discrete supercells but an amorphous blob of convection.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
For Saturday, some minor upper level disturbances are forecast
across the Central and Southern Plains with a cold front and
baroclinic zone south across west Texas into Oklahoma. A marginally
severe MCS will likely track south of Kansas along the baroclinic
zone with the best chances for thunderstorms across southern Kansas.
Highs on Saturday look fairly cool, with mostly cloudy skies, in the
mid to upper 70s.
For Sunday, a more substantial upper level trough moves across the
Plains on Sunday night with the ECMWF model showing thunderstorms
likely with another MCS while the GFS has most of the heavy rainfall
over far western Kansas. Current thoughts are severe chances do not
look all that good with moist adiabatic lapse rates. May need to
adjust precip chances upwards as the ECMWF shows heavy rainfall
potential. Highs still look fairly cool and only in the 70s.
For the period Monday into Thursday, a warming trend is in the
offing with highs warming back into the 80s Tuesday into Thursday
with lows in the 60s. Thunderstorms chances look minimal as an upper
level trough moves east of the region and minor upper level ridging
moves back into the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
Scattered thunderstorms will become more numerous after midnight
with a complex of thunderstorms expected to move east across
western Kansas overnight. Some thunderstorms later tonight may be
severe with large hail along with very heavy rainfall and possible
MVFR conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 63 78 60 / 70 80 40 40
GCK 83 62 76 59 / 70 70 40 40
EHA 82 62 78 59 / 70 70 50 50
LBL 84 63 79 61 / 70 70 50 50
HYS 83 62 77 59 / 70 80 50 30
P28 84 66 81 64 / 70 80 50 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS TN IS A FOCUS OF CURRENT CONVECTION SOUTH
OF NASHVILLE TN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND MOST
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A VERY
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TN BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE CURRENT PRECIPITATION CHANCE
CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOG HAS LIFTED INTO A
LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE BIG SANDY VALLEY REGION AND HAVE MADE SOME
SKY COVER CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER THE STRATUS WILL BE LIFTING AND THINNING FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL
ALSO MAKE NDFD UPDATES BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WITH THE CLEARING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS A FEW HOURS AGO THE
FOG SET IN AND BECAME THICK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE BEEFED IT UP
IN THE GRIDS AND ALSO ISSUED AN SPS THROUGH 13Z TO HIGHLIGHT THE
DENSE PATCHES WITH VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. ALSO
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT T/TD/SKY OBS AND TRENDS
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS. A FRESH SET OF ZONES WERE ISSUED...TOO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO EAST KENTUCKY. THE
REMNANT CLOUDS FROM THE EARLIER MCS OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE ARE
EXITING FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE
HELPED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSH FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
WILL SERVE TO KEEP ANY POP UP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE ROBUST FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN
WITH SOME PLACES SEEING PATCHY DENSE FOG. WILL MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT FOR A POSSIBLE SPS OR NPW LATER IN THE SHIFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY VARY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN SOME
VALLEYS...AND TO THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ARE FOUND IN
THE FAR SOUTH...AND ALSO ON SOME RIDGES. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH AS THE WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT FLAT
RIDGING THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE A SERIES OF TROUGHS PASS
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. RELATIVELY FAST FLOW...WITH MINOR WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN...EXISTS ATOP KENTUCKY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. EARLY
ON...THESE RIPPLES DIVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH ONE MOVING
THROUGH LATE IN THE SHORT TERM HEADED MORE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS
THE SOUTHERN RIDGING BREAKS DOWN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN EARLY ON TO THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...THE
NEARBY FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY AND
COMFORTABLE TODAY AS TEMPS PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AROUND LATE TONIGHT...PROBABLY TO A LESSER
EXTENT THAN TONIGHT GIVEN AN EXTRA DAY TO DRY OUT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE PATCHY FOG QUICKLY BURNING OFF IN THE
MORNING AND THEN DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE
A THREAT OF CONVECTION BUILDS BY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH WHEN THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM AND TONIGHT FOR RELATIVE ELEVATION
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP NEAR GUIDANCE OR BELOW...IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH TODAY AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE BUT
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING AS ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE RIDGES/TOUGHS IN AN
OVERALL PROGRESSIVE AND BROAD CONUS TROUGH LIKE FLOW. CORE OF THE
WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO RUN SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TIER...A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH FOR MAIN STORM TRACKS THAN TYPICALLY FOUND THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES...BOTH
RIDGING AND TROUGHING WILL PASS IN RAPID FIRE FASHION ACROSS THE
AREA AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH OUR CWA WITHIN THE HEART OF
A STORM TRACK CORRIDOR. CONSEQUENTLY EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE INTO
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH AT LEAST SOME TYPE OF THREAT OF RAIN IN EVERY PERIOD. WITH THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN EXPECT A NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND ON
AVERAGE AND A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE BETWEEN MAX AND MINS.
WITH THIS IN MIND BELIEVE THE GFS EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE AN EXCESSIVELY HIGH BIAS...REMINISCENT OF LAST SUMMER. IN
FACT...MODEL/GUIDANCE BLENDS PROVIDE A MUCH MORE REASONABLE RANGE
FOR EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. WILL STICK WITH RAW MODEL AND MOS
GUIDANCE BLENDS FOR TEMPS BEFORE TWEAKING TOWARDS THE TYPICALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THE FOG SET IN MOSTLY AS EXPECTED...THOUGH A TAD THICKER AT LOZ. LOOK
FOR THE VLIFR AND LIFR FOG TO ALL CLEAR OUT BY 13Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH WILL
PUT IN SOME MVFR FOG AT ALL TAF SITES ASIDE FROM JKL FOR LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
955 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...MOST OF THE ARKLAMISS IS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS
MORNING...BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE JACKSON AREA. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN ALL EYES TURN TO THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER
OKLAHOMA. JAN 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY STOUT CAP
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...BUT SOUNDINGS FURTHER NORTH INDICATE MUCH
WEAKER CAPPING. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT THE MCS WILL WEAKEN
THE FURTHER EAST IT GETS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND THIS LINES UP
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AND ALSO WHAT WE HAVE IN THE HWO AND
GRAPHICAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AN NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES COMES DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MCS COMPLEXES FOR THE PERIOD.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE STOUT MEAN RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE SOME STRONG MCS SYSTEMS WERE MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FIELDS SHOWS THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH. AS FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR KJAN HAD A
STRONG CAP WITH A 700 MB TEMPS OF 17C. NATIONAL AND LOCAL WRF SHOWS
SOME CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA BY 11Z AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME STRONG
CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE DELTA REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE AIDED BY SOME UPSTREAM ACTIVITY COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SPC HAS PUT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ONCE AGAIN.
THE ONLY ISSUE IS HOW FAR SOUTHWEST WILL THE CONVECTION TAKE PLACE
WITH WARM HEIGHTS AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER AND DECENT MIDLEVEL
CAPPING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW
AT 30-40 KNOTS AT TIMES UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NORTH WITH SOME DECENT
UPPER DIVERGENCE. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWS GOOD FLOW AND LAPSE
RATES WITH THE STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MIDLEVEL CAP WEAKENS
SOME IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA. AS THE STORMS PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THEY WILL RUN INTO A STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER FLOW. PWATS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR 2 INCHES FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LAPSE
RATES AND WIND FIELDS ONCE AGAIN FAVOR SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREATS WITH THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH THAT PROVIDES SOME FOCUS.
EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH EVENING HOURS.
IN THE GRAPHICAST AND HWO WILL HAVE ELEVATED CONFIDENCE IN THE
NORTHWEST DELTA AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE OVER THE REST OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA. THE THREATS WILL BE GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL IN THE ELEVATED
AREA AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN THE LIMITED AREA. WIND GUST WILL BE
UP TO 60 MPH.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW. ONCE AGAIN
WE WILL HAVE THE SAME GENERAL PARAMETERS AS TODAY. SPC HAS PUT A
SLIGHT RISK JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUR REGION WILL BE IN
THE 5 PERCENT AREA. SO WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS CROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD OUT OF THE HWO FOR
NOW. FOR NOW MAY GET SOME SUBSEVERE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE WITH COOLER HIGHS OF THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S. FOR
LOWS CONTINUED THE BLEND WITH LOW 69-73. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN
WENT CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO MOS POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH./17/
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS COME INTO CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT STILL PREFER THE ECMWF AS THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LATTER PERIODS.
FLOW PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BAJA ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE A NEAR
ZONAL PATTERN WILL LIE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. DIGGING WAVE MOVING
OUT OF IDAHO SUNDAY LOOKS TO GET ORPHANED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM BUT
WILL QUICKLY BE ADOPTED BY SOUTHERN STREAM JET ROTATING AROUND
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BAJA HIGH CENTER. RAPID DEEPENING OCCURS AS
THE WAVE PULLS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...PERSISTENT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS
REMAINED STRETCHED ACROSS OK/N AR/TN. CONVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE
TO FESTER ALONG THE BOUNDARY. APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
ALLOW A SURGE OF DRY/COOLER AIR TO PUSH ACROSS TX/OK TUESDAY. WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY WANING...LOW CENTER LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN
AND BEGIN FILLING AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TUE/WED.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLOW DOWN AND LOOKS TO STALL
WEDNESDAY OVER MS AND BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY.
GENERALLY WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ABOUT EVERYDAY...BEST IN THE NORTH
AND ON TUE/WED WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY. WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS IN POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH TUE...BUT WENT
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF ON TEMPS/POPS WED/THU. THE GFS SEEMS TO TRAIL
OFF A LITTLE TOO SOON TOWARD CLIMO WITH MID 60S FOR MINS WED/THU./26/
&&
.AVIATION...THE IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED AND VFR CONDS WERE BEING REPORTED AT 14Z. VFR CONDS WL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN BUT A LARGE COMPLEX OF TSTMS OVER OKLAHOMA WL
MOVE ESE AND INTO OUR NW BY LATE AFTN AND THEN MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEVERE WIND AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS. VFR CONDS WL RESUME IN THE WAKE OF THE TSTM COMPLEX THIS
EVENING UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN MODELS SUGGEST IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS TODAY WL BE 6-10KTS OUT OF THE SW-S
BUT WL CHANGE OUT OF THE W-NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF TSTM COMPLEX. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 92 72 92 70 / 32 14 24 13
MERIDIAN 92 70 89 70 / 51 20 26 18
VICKSBURG 93 70 92 67 / 21 12 27 11
HATTIESBURG 92 72 93 71 / 20 12 27 10
NATCHEZ 92 72 90 70 / 18 13 18 7
GREENVILLE 88 72 89 73 / 50 28 47 23
GREENWOOD 88 70 88 71 / 50 29 45 26
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
950 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DID AN UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS AROUND THE
LITTLE ROCKIES. THE MODELS DID WELL WITH THE PRECIP IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE ALL MISSED THE RAIN THAT CAME INTO
PHILLIPS COUNTY. HRRR MODEL IS NOW SHOWING IT BUT DIDN`T HAVE IT
THERE TWO HOURS AGO. SHOWS THAT IT DOESN`T EXTEND EAST MUCH AND IS
GONE BY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
INCLUDE WHETHER WE`LL SEE ANY FOG OR NOT TONIGHT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
200 WITH THE PRECIP THEY HAVE GOTTEN. FRANSEN
POP COVERAGE FOR TODAY CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS SCATTERED SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ISOLATED TO THE NORTH. RADAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OF HAVING A LONE SHOWER STRAY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY FAR COOLER TODAY COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL 850MB TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGE IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THE JUNE SUN WILL HELP
BUT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO EXIT AND DIMINISH AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES. ONCE
AGAIN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH NORTHERN ZONES
AS WELL AS DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
A FEW ISOLATED 30S ARE ALSO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THIS
CHANGES ON SATURDAY HOWEVER AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE
+10C. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANCE WOULD EXPECT MAINLY A DRY
DAY BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A LONE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO INITIATE NEAR THE MT/ND
BORDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. RISING 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL ALSO MEAN A CONTINUATION OF THE MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOOK FOR NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY ACROSS MONTANA AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE...COULD
SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A MAINLY DRY
FRONT.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH/LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND LINGERS THERE ON FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER BETWEEN UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (GFS) AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (ECMWF) ALOFT FOR EASTERN
MONTANA FOR THIS PERIOD. EITHER WAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.
SYNOPSIS: A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING
SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
FROM CANADA WHICH WILL CLEAR SKIES.
IMPACTS: WILL SEE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY ESPECIALLY AT KGDV. LOOK FOR NORTHERLY
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
956 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
AND LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM FRIDAY...FORECAST CURRENTLY PRETTY WELL ON TRACK.
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO AFTERNOON POPS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 3KM
HRRR AND RAP MODELS...WHICH SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT 17Z OR 18Z. THIS AREA
IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COULD
ALSO SEE SOME SEA BREEZE INTERACTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...LOW CHC POPS WILL
LINGER OVER SRN SECTIONS THIS EVENING...THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHC ALONG
S COAST OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK LOW PRES MOVING ALONG STALLED FRONT TO
S. LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRY AIR
FROM N...ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO LOW-MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC SAT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST SUN...WHILE A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MHX CWA.
DETERMINISTIC 05/00Z MODEL SUITE REMAINS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THE
TREND WHICH REMOVES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL RANGE 1390-1400 METERS SAT AND SUN UNDER LIGHT NE/E
FLOW...YIELDING MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MON AND STALL
OR WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS MON AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS MODEST
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS FROM ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MON TO A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUES INTO THURS.
EXPECT BIGGEST PRECIP CHANCES WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CONVECTION WANING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH 80S ALONG THE
COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND VFR EXCEPT FOR
LINGERING MVFR CIG AT KOAJ. AFTER CIG LIFTS THERE...VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR VCTS KOAJ THIS AFTN. FRONT
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST S OF AREA THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER AREA FROM N. MVFR PSBL AGAIN AT KOAJ OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING MSTR NEAR STALLED FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. CAN EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE TO E
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING S MON INTO TUES. TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS POSSIBLE MON THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM FRIDAY...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 5 FEET AT THE DIAMOND
BUOY AND WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM THIS MORNING. FRONT
HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT EXTREME SRN-MOST WATERS WITH NE WINDS
OBSERVED ALL BUT CAPE LOOKOUT AND BUOY 30 SE OF NEW RIVER INLET.
FRONT WILL STALL JUST S OF AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL WEAK
LOW PRES WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. LEANED TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NE WINDS THAN LATEST MODELS...INDICATING SPEEDS
10-15 KT MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE SURGE TO AROUND 15
KT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOR SRN HALF OF WATERS AS SFC WV MOVES
OFFSHORE TO SE.
LEANED TO PREVIOUS FCST SEAS WITH NWPS NOT AVBL AND WW3 UNDERDONE.
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT TODAY AND 2-4 FT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM FRI...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE NE 5-15 KT THIS WEEKEND WITH SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT SE LATE SUN AFTERNOON THE VEER FURTHER TO S
ON MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
S/SSW MON AND TUES 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT THOUGH COULD SEE SOME
4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
740 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND DISSOLVE EARLY
SUNDAY... AS MOIST AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC....WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SANDHILLS. THIS IS ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
FILTER SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHILE RETARDING THE FLOW A
BIT OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN....WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. BY ALL ACCOUNTS...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SC BORDER THIS MORNING...LIKELY
SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL FORCING MAY COME FROM A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY...WHICH CROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
UPSTREAM PERTURBATION AND THE POOLING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOWING
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE PIEDMONT. WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...WITH A LOW END
CHANCE FROM FAYETTEVILLE/CLINTON TO THE SOUTHEAST. MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25KT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. HIGHS 83-88.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT....BUT
LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET WILL END THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THOUGH THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL STAY NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. DEWPOINTS
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NC
COASTAL AREA...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN ACROSS WESTERN NC...WHILE
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC AS MOST NWP SHOWS...THEN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION
TO DRIFTING EAST INTO THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE THE CWA
WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN AROUND NORMAL IN THE 83-87 RANGE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM FRIDAY...
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE DAY CENTERED
JUST OFF THE VA TIDEWATER AND COVERING NE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING. AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE DISSIPATES... THIS FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER TO A
CONFLUENT MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW SUN NIGHT... GETTING US BACK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A FRONT SITTING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY UP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MID LEVELS FEATURE WEAK WAVY BUT MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW... WITH ONE POTENT WAVE SHIFTING OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST AND ANOTHER SLOWLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS
FROM THE WEST. PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES (OVER 160% OF
NORMAL) OVER THE WRN CWA WHERE THE MOISTURE FLUX WILL HAVE BEEN OF
LONGER DURATION... AND WITH ASSUMED LIFT ASSISTANCE PROVIDED BY WEAK
DPVA FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORM TO
FORM IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN... WORKING INTO THE
FAR WRN CWA... AND WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THIS AREA STARTING SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS ABOVE NORMAL PW SHOULD THEN SPREAD EASTWARD SUN
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE THE WEAK
MID LEVEL FLOW AND DECREASING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO DIMINISHING CONVECTION... THE MINOR DPVA ALONG WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE (RESULTING IN PART FROM THE SLOWLY INCREASING MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND APPROACHING 700 MB
TROUGH) SHOULD KEEP THE COLUMN VOLATILE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO SUN NIGHT OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR ERN CWA... WITH POPS HIGHER WEST THAN EAST... UNDER
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. HIGHS 84-88 AND LOWS 65-69.
FOR MON-THU: MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS OVER THE PLAINS EARLY MON...
WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RISING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER NC
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER BOTH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF THIS WAVE INTO A LOW OVER
MO/AR BY LATE TUE... THEREBY BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
CAROLINAS. SO AS WE HOLD WITHIN A REGIME FEATURING VERY WEAK
STEERING AND HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT... WITH A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH AT
THE SURFACE... EXPECT A BETTER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGY CHANCE OF DAILY
SHOWERS/STORMS MON/TUE... FOCUSED FROM (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. THE MID LEVEL LOW THEN DRIFTS
EASTWARD WED/THU WHILE ELONGATING NORTH-SOUTH... APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS LATE THU. WILL CONTINUE GOOD CHANCES OF DAILY
SHOWERS/STORMS WED/THU AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY INCREASES WITH
PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR TO ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY FROM
SOUTH OF KRCZ ARCING BACK NORTH OF KJNX AND KGSB. STRATUS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IS WILL IMPACT KRDU...KRWI
AND KFAY THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR
THEREAFTER. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL THEN SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FROM KFAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY AROUND 17Z.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...THERE MAY BE SOME REDUCED
VSBYS OR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS POINT AND PROBABILITIES MAY BE HIGHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS SATURDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATED...
ADDED A FEW COUNTIES TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH 60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS IN THE DEVELOPING
SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TSRA WILL AFFECT MOST SITES BEFORE 17Z WITH BRIEF GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER
17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
ANYTIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE
BIGGER HAZARD.
CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OUT. A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS CLUSTER AS IT MOVES EAST. THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE CLUSTER...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
WEAKER. THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THAT
MAY PRODUCE HAIL...GUSTY WIND...AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
RATES 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS
WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA. LATEST RADARS
INDICATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MOVING EAST...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THINK THIS CLUSTER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN HAZARD. LATEST HRRR RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND A
FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT
TOO STRONG...WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE FROM OCCURRING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA AROUND 6 OR 7 AM. WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
THIS AFTERNOON...REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS MAY OCCUR...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS WILL
RECOVER AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST. STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...SO STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE GREATER. PINPOINTING
EXACTLY WHERE THIS COMPLEX WILL OCCUR REMAINS CHALLENGING...BUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA HAS THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS
WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES EXIST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WITH SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD EACH DAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.
DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST STORMS AND RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS IN BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE.
FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHICH AREAS WILL GET THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
MBS
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
536 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE
BIGGER HAZARD.
CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OUT. A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS CLUSTER AS IT MOVES EAST. THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE CLUSTER...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
WEAKER. THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THAT
MAY PRODUCE HAIL...GUSTY WIND...AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
RATES 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS
WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA. LATEST RADARS
INDICATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MOVING EAST...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THINK THIS CLUSTER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN HAZARD. LATEST HRRR RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND A
FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT
TOO STRONG...WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE FROM OCCURRING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA AROUND 6 OR 7 AM. WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
THIS AFTERNOON...REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS MAY OCCUR...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS WILL
RECOVER AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST. STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...SO STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE GREATER. PINPOINTING
EXACTLY WHERE THIS COMPLEX WILL OCCUR REMAINS CHALLENGING...BUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA HAS THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS
WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES EXIST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WITH SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD EACH DAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.
DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST STORMS AND RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS IN BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE.
FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHICH AREAS WILL GET THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 69 89 69 / 90 40 40 60
HOBART OK 92 69 90 68 / 100 40 30 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 74 97 71 / 20 20 20 40
GAGE OK 90 67 84 64 / 70 70 40 60
PONCA CITY OK 85 68 85 67 / 60 70 60 60
DURANT OK 87 72 92 71 / 50 30 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
700 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THREE AREAS OF CONCERN FOR ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY. STRONG HEATING INTO
THE 80S AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING THREE BOUNDARIES TO BECOME A POTENTIAL
CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL
POSE THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. FURTHER NORTHEAST...A SECOND
AREA OF CONCERN WILL FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. AGAIN...THIN ELEVATED
CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED HERE...HOWEVER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER IN THIS AREA. STILL THINK HAIL TO GOLF
BALL SIZE AND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT NEAR HIGHWAY 14. THE THIRD AREA OF CONCERN IS
MORE OF A WILD CARD. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED NEAR THE I29
CORRIDOR AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY. PER USUAL...MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE SOMEWHAT HINTING AT
CONVECTION NEAR THE IOWA AND MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS
WILL IMPACT THINGS...ONLY ADDED SCATTERED MENTION OF STORMS HERE.
LIKE THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...SHEAR IS LESS IMPRESSIVE BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM - SO WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AREA AS WELL. WITH A LATER START EXPECTED TO THE WET
WEATHER AND GOOD HEATING...DID BUMP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HALF INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE BACK OVER AN
INCH SO ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
QUITE A BIT COOLER IN OUR WEST AND NORTH...AS COOL AS NEAR
50S...HOWEVER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY. PROBABLY WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. AS
THE WAVE MOVES EAST...WE BEGIN TO SEE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION THREAT BY AFTERNOON.
STILL WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
HELPING LOW STRATUS STICK AROUND. ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
60S...AND IF THE STRATUS ENDS UP A BIT THICKER...WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS...WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME 40S FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANOTHER PRETTY GOOD
WAVE AND AREA OF LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE CWA LATER
SUNDAY. SO THINK MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS BOTH THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SEEM
ABUNDANT ENOUGH. REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO WILL JUST GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER FOR NOW. WITH
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN ON SUNDAY...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S.
MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO START
MONDAY...OTHERWISE WOULD EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THOUGH...WITH LOW 70S. WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN ADVECTING BACK INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL UNCERTAIN
EXACTLY HOW GOOD OF A CHANCE THIS IS. BEST UPPER FORCING MAY END UP
SPLITTING OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...HOWEVER A BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY APPROACH OR CROSS THE CWA...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SOME
INSTABILITY RETURNING BY THIS TIME...THE CHANCE POPS SEEM WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I29 WILL
LIFT THRUOGH 13Z WITH VFR CONDTIONS BECOME PROMINANT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 20Z IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NEAR HIGHWAY 14,,,WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING AFTER 00Z AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTS TO 65
MPH AND LARGE HAIL. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
STORMS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
643 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXITING PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING... POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IF/WHEN MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...WEAK RIDGING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA...AND A
SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN. THE WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS...NOW MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE...DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY WEAK 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON WATER
VAPOR...THOUGH. SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE.
WITHIN THE CLEAR SKIES LAYED A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE...
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN. IN ITS
WAKE...A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS BEEN GENERATING
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
COMBINATION OF RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND 06.06Z RAP DATA SUGGESTS THE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 15Z...AND PERHAPS 12Z. DID INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER GIVEN PERSISTENT LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE SHORTWAVE CORE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL THEN CLIMB OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE CORE OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WOULD NORMALLY MAKE ONE THINK OF A DRY FORECAST
DUE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...THE 06.00Z GFS/HIRES
ARW/REGIONAL CANADIAN/SPC WRF-NMM AND 06.05Z HRRR ALL WANT TO
DEVELOP ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FORCED EITHER FROM THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT MARCHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO NORTHERN
WI...OR FROM PURE INSTABILITY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE CAPPING
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60...BUT THE CAPE THAT DOES DEVELOP IS SKINNY.
BELIEVE THE 80S ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THAT WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF
SUN AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C BY 00Z. THE DEWPOINTS ARE
ALSO REASONABLE SEEING LOW 60S EXISTED LAST EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SO IN SUMMARY...DESPITE THE 500MB RIDGING...FEEL SOME 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES ARE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WENT WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GIVEN THE VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE PROGGED
AND EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE.
FOR THOSE MODELS THAT DEVELOP SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY ALL
AGREE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
IN THE EVENING. THUS ONLY HAVE THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES GOING TIL
02Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONGOING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
BAND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND WILL DEPEND
ON BOTH HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKE IT.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND CENTRAL WI BY 12Z...WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCES LATE IN
THE NIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA IN THE EVENT THE BAND
MAKES IT IN. MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR THE BAND TO AFFECT
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MAIN LONG TERM ISSUES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AND
MONDAY.
SATURDAY IS AN INTERESTING SETUP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A FAIRLY WOUND UP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING KS...MO AND IL WHILE
WEAK TROUGHING CROSSES MN. THESE TWO FEATURES COME TOGETHER A BIT AT
THE SURFACE BY CONVERTING THAT COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH...SOMETHING MORE SIMILAR WE LOOK FOR
IN WINTER. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SOME OF THE MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED-NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO HIT THE
LOW 60S AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF IT.
AGAIN SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPPING WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
WEAK TROUGHING COMING IN. CAPE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE...251-750
J/KG 0- 1KM MIXED LAYER...SUPPORTING MORE THUNDER. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM
SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH STAY LESS THAN 25KT...THUS LITTLE
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN. PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY CLIMBS TO 1.3-1.4
INCHES SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN A LITTLE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK TROUGH AND WOUND UP SHORTWAVE
PUSH EASTWARD. DID KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH THE 06.00Z GFS/NAM.
WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH...TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...LOOKS TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 06.00Z ECMWF REMAINS PERSISTENT
IN BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WHILE THE
06.00Z GFS/CANADIAN ARE DRY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
ECMWF...FEEL 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOPEFULLY MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH LATER CYCLES. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ON MONDAY ARE EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. THE WETTER ECMWF WOULD
MEAN HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
CWA...WHILE THE DRIER GFS/CANADIAN WOULD BE MID TO UPPER 70S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR TROUGHING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
RESULTING IN RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE
ALSO SUGGESTIONS OF AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSING FROM KS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. FOR THE MOST PART THIS SHOULD YIELD A
DRY PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE BEGUN TO TREND THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. STILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RELATED TO A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...
WEDNESDAYS CHANCES ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODERATE TO BACK
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE COOLER MONDAY. COULD SEE ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
LATEST IR SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS INDICATING SOME STRATUS/FOG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN MN. HOPING THIS WILL
STAY OUT OF KRST...AND THINKING SO WITH SUNRISE AND SURFACE
HEATING COMMENCING. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN INTO FAR NORTHWEST WI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SOME HIGHER BASED CUMULUS AT 4-5KFT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AT KLSE/KRST...BUT THINKING ANY SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WILL
BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE FRONT AND AWAY FROM THE KRST/KLSE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED CU/STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT.
INCLUDED A VCSH AT KRST AFT 09Z AS THAT FRONT BOUNDARY
APPROACHES. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
246 PM PDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA AND OUT INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA
THIS EVENING, WITH CONTINUED LOW CHANCES IN THE SIERRA FOR THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER LOW WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND EXPAND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THERE
ARE SOME INCREASING CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DEPICTS A DECENT VORTICITY LOBE SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
WARMING. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING ANY CONVECTION
AT THIS TIME. WE WILL REEVALUATE AT THE NEXT SERIES OF MODEL RUNS.
OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS QUIET FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SIERRA ON
SUNDAY. THESE CHANCES ARE LOOKING A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE TODAY,
BUT HAVE KEPT THEM IN SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 80S AND SOME LOW 90S FOR WESTERN
NEVADA VALLEYS. BOYD
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ON MONDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. RECENT MODEL RUNS BRING IN THE LOW SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCES
OF SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND RAISE THE CHANCES OF
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FORCING ARE STILL IN QUESTION. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR OVERNIGHT, DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR FIRE WEATHER.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER ON MONDAY NOW, BUT
WITH A LOW OFF THE COAST WOULD STILL EXPECT CONVECTION AT SOME
POINT. WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY AND THE CHALLENGES OF
PREDICTING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION, DECIDED TO LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST
AS IS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. NORMAL ZEPHYR WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
ZEPHYR WINDS ON THURSDAY AS A DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
NORTHWEST. WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND WINDS INCREASING, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK. TOLBY
&&
.AVIATION...
RADAR AT 21Z SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. CURRENT HRRR MODEL HAS CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO BUILD MAINLY IN NORTHERN MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES WITH
A FEW DISCRETE CELLS BUILDING NEAR THE TAHOE BASIN AND FURTHER
NORTH OF I-80. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR TSTM WILL BE AT KTVL (25%)
FOLLOWED BY KTRK/KMMH (20%) AND KCXP/KRNO (10%). MOST LIKELY
IMPACT AT ALL TERMINALS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45KTS.
LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS REMAIN ON SATURDAY GENERALLY UP TO 10%
FOR SIERRA TERMINALS. TOLBY
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS MAINTAINED DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT
MOVES IN. AS THESE MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND
ENCOUNTER CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG...EXPECT RAPID THUNDERSTORM
INTENSIFICATION. DEEP LAYER SHEARS ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60
MPH. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITIES ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH WITH SFC
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY...STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS LCLS WILL BE LOWER AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF 0-3KM
CAPE...WHICH COULD LOCALLY INTENSIFY SPIN UPS ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS
TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT WALDO BURN SCAR (MOST
VULNERABLE BURN SCAR TO RUN-OFF PROBLEMS) WILL GET MISSED...WITH ALL
THE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AN UNLUCKY STRIKE COULD CERTAINLY
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. SAME WILL BE TRUE FOR THE OTHER BURN SCARS
IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. THOSE IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS SHOULD MAINTAIN A
HEIGHTENED AWARENESS OF THE WEATHER TODAY. ACTIVITY MARCHES
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING WITH MOST HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WAA OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH MAY KEEP GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VERY DRY SFC DEW POINTS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER TROF
APPROACHING OUT WEST...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND MOVE OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. APPEARS HIGHEST CAPE AND BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER TOMORROW...BUT 0-6KM
SHEARS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS...SO IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
CAN BE REALIZED IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THEN THERE
WILL BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. GREATEST CONCERN THOUGH WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE BURN SCARS. THIS RISK MAY
ACTUALLY INCREASE FOR SATURDAY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT
HIGH RES MODELS AND HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF NECESSARY.
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL MEAN A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER
INTO MID WEEK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COULD BE ANOTHER MCS ROLLING ACROSS THE
FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
BACK ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MTS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
LOOKS TO SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING UVV AHEAD
OF PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM. WITH AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...COULD POSSIBLY SEE TRAINING STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND ESPECIALLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
BURN SCARS. SHOULD SEE STORMS MOVING OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND PASSING TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN 4C AND 10C ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSING TROUGH...LEADING TO A COOL DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
SOME 5-15F BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN SETS UP WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE STATE MONDAY AND FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY BY MORE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...PASSING NORTHERN TIER SYSTEM SENDS A BACKDOOR
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE
OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. WINDOW OF GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM
20Z TO 01Z FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. THREAT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY CLEAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BY 06Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AREAS OF STRATUS
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS
EXPECTED FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. THEY COULD BRIEFLY DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR KPUB TOWARDS MORNING. LOWER CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST. SATURDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
KALS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT THESE ARE LESS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
-KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1105 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH IS ADVECTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...TOWARDS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM OUT OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. RADARS IN NEBRASKA ARE SHOWING INITIAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A TENDENCY FOR
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE
RAP MODEL SHOW 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN LOGAN COUNTY BY 1 PM. WIND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR STRONGLY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS UTAH AT THE PRESENT TIME IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROVIDING DYNAMIC LIFT ALOFT.
THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE...WELL SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT INTERACTIONS EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. IF THIS SECOND AREA OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS...IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER
TOO. THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE DECREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AFTER 6 PM. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. IF
THAT DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE...THEN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM OR 10 PM. FOR THE TIME BEING WILL
STICK WITH THE HEAVY HANDED FORECAST WITH THE MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL FIRING ACROSS ELBERT AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES IN PROXIMITY OF JET STREAK WHICH HAS BEEN SAGGING SOUTH.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE CLEARING EXCEPT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS PARK COUNTY.
MAIN CONCERN AGAIN TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY EVEN SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. ONE
WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AGAIN AND THE OTHER NEAR THE
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BORDER AREAS WITH APPROACHING FRONT. LESS
INFLUENCE FROM THE JET TODAY BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN WAVE NOW OVER NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH WILL MOVE INTO
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY
SPARK FURTHER STORMS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS EAST AND NORTHEAST.
SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE ANYWHERE FROM 1000-2000J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A DENVER
CYCLONE SETTING UP TODAY WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY OVER
THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTHERN ARAPAHOE COUNTIES.
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EXPECT LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG THE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP IN SOME LOW POPS EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
UPSLOPE WILL DEEPEN SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THIS MAY ACT LIKE A
TYPICAL DAY 1 WITH A FRONT...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO ERODE AND
MUCH OF THE PLAINS BEING TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
CONVECTION IN THE FOOTHILLS THOUGH. SUNDAY THEN MAY BE A DAY TWO
SETUP WITH RETURN FLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH MAY WORK WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING SHEAR TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
THEM SEVERE.
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE TROUGH DRYER SUBSIDENT AIR MAY MAKE
A DAY WITH NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS MODELS HAVE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. IT IS JUNE SO THAT LOOKS PERFECTLY REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST WITH THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY...CONTINUED MILD THROUGH MONDAY...THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO THE MID 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WE HAVE ONLY HAD ONE 90 DEGREE DAY THUS FAR IN DENVER...
AND WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY
SEE MORE 90 DEGREE READINGS LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
DENVER AREA AIRPORTS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BETWEEN 2 PM
AND 8 OR 9 PM. SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER. STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING MOIST AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
LONG TERM HYDROLOGY...RISING TEMPERATURES AND SUNSHINE BY MIDWEEK
WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE SNOWMELT. BUT BY MIDWEEK STAGES ON MOST
STREAMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE
MOUNTAIN STREAMS IN SUMMIT COUNTY WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO
RECEDE.
CAUTION IS RECOMMENDED FOR ANYONE AROUND HIGH AND FAST MOVING
STREAMS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO FOR THE NEXT WEEK
OR TWO.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE LITTLE OR NO UPPER-LEVEL LIFT OVERNIGHT.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE APPEARS LOW ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAYS LITTLE
COVERAGE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. MODELS
ALSO INDICATE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION
WITHIN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE BOTH DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...GIVEN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE SC
MIDLANDS. MAINLY DRY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WATCHING
A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN VALLEY MOVING SE.
LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SEEM TO SHOW MUCH FROM THESE STORMS...BUT
INDICATES MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING. CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE MEANDERING OF THE FRONT...BUT MAY
GO LIGHT NORTHEAST AT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT. LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATING MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
257 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH 2 SHORT WAVES ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. MLCAPES RUNNING 1000-2000 EXCEPT SLIGHTLY LESS
FOR THE FAR ENE PORTION OF THE STATE. FIRST SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE SECOND EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MS/AL AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA VERY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...TENDING TO FAVOR CENTRAL GA MORE
SO. THE 4KM WRF REFLECTIVITY IS QUITE FAST WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND/AREA OF CONVECTION WHILE THE HRRR HAS BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT
AND SLOWER.
MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE LESS HELP FROM SHORT ENERGY ALOFT FOR SATURDAY
AND THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY TIED TO THE INSTABILITY
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
BDL
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS
INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. WITH SO MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND
IT WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WHICH AREA OF THE CWA TO FAVOR WITH
HIGHER POPS. HOWEVER WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTH...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN THAT AREA
FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
41
&&
.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ON SUNDAY... MODELS AGREE ON A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
DRAGS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TO AROUND NORTH GA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT QUICKLY RETREATS NORTHWARD
MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS WHERE IT CUTS OFF BY TUESDAY... AND
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT... EXPECT A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH A FRONT MAY PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH GA... THE LACK OF A FRONTAL
FOCUS AND NOTED WEAK SHEAR VALUES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SUGGEST STORMS THEN SHOULD BE MORE OF THE TYPICAL GARDEN VARIETY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PULSE STORMS... AND THEREFORE... FOR THE MOST
PART... REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER... AS THE UPPER LOW
KICKS EASTWARD AND APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY... THE ADDED UPPER SUPPORT COULD ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN WARRANTS SHOWING
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED... WITH POSSIBLY THE GREATER CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OCCURRING LATER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND
OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY IN THE 60S AND 70S
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
39
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AND CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT FOR LOWER CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS
MOSTLY WNW 7-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE AND
STRONGER WINDS AROUND STORMS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ATL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
BDL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 68 89 69 87 / 30 40 30 50
ATLANTA 70 88 72 86 / 40 40 30 40
BLAIRSVILLE 59 84 64 80 / 30 40 30 60
CARTERSVILLE 66 88 69 87 / 40 40 30 50
COLUMBUS 72 90 73 90 / 60 40 20 40
GAINESVILLE 68 87 70 84 / 30 40 30 60
MACON 68 90 71 88 / 50 50 30 40
ROME 67 87 70 86 / 40 40 30 60
PEACHTREE CITY 67 89 69 87 / 50 40 30 40
VIDALIA 72 92 72 90 / 60 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...GORDON...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...MERIWETHER...
MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TROUP...WALKER...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
216 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS LIKELY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 90 DESPITE WEAK
NORTH FLOW. HIGHER POPS IN THE CSRA AND LOWER POPS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH PWAT 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN...MORE LIKELY IN GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. MODELS
ALSO INDICATE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CROSSING THE REGION
WITHIN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE BOTH DAYS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST
STATES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY ADVANCES EASTWARD
TO THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
DIURNAL STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...GIVEN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE SC
MIDLANDS. MAINLY DRY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WATCHING
A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN VALLEY MOVING SE.
LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SEEM TO SHOW MUCH FROM THESE STORMS...BUT
INDICATES MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING. CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE MEANDERING OF THE FRONT...BUT MAY
GO LIGHT NORTHEAST AT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT. LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATING MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
145 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA BY TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS LIKELY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 90 DESPITE WEAK
NORTH FLOW. HIGHER POPS IN THE CSRA AND LOWER POPS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH PWAT 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN...MORE LIKELY IN GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
MIDLANDS/CSRA AND PIEDMONT.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST STATES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS BY MID- WEEK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY MONDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...GIVEN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE SC
MIDLANDS. MAINLY DRY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WATCHING
A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN VALLEY MOVING SE.
LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SEEM TO SHOW MUCH FROM THESE STORMS...BUT
INDICATES MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING. CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE MEANDERING OF THE FRONT...BUT MAY
GO LIGHT NORTHEAST AT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT. LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATING MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1217 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
...Unsettled and potentially very wet through the short term...
Some of you may be looking at the above headline and notice the word
wet and remain a bit dubious. We are in the weather pattern period of
scattered thunderstorms/MCS`s and those that experience activity right
over them will see heavy rainfall, while those nearby without thunderstorm
activity will see basically nothing. An example of that occurred last
night where the northern zones saw 4+", while the southern zones saw
0.00". A similar pattern is expected today and tonight. So... a break
down of the short term period:
This morning:
Main concern is watching convection across eastern Colorado. This activity
may impact the western zones early this morning. A secondary band is
possible later in the morning in association with warm air advection
and isentropic lift. The HRRR has indicated this along and south of
the Arkansas river.
Today/Tonight:
Main concern is late this evening. PWATs are forecast to be around 1.50",
which is near the +2SD mark. There is considerable disagreement between
the global models (GFS/EC) and convective allowing models (ARW, 4 km
NAM) in where the MCS will track. Have ramped up pops by late evening
and also increased QPF given the overall trend in the mesoscale pattern
of a heavy rain event. There is the potential for heavy rainfall from
00Z onward. Thermodynamics/kinematics are there for severe weather,
however, I have a few problems with this. First, forecast soundings
are rather moist adiabatic (however, probably somewhat influenced from
convection in the output), however, this leads to somewhat of a thick hail
growth zone, which is not conducive for significant hail growth. MUCAPE
of 1500 j/kg and 40+ kt of effective bulk shear do suggest the notion
of more organized convection, however, mid level lapse rates are not
that steep and upper level winds back with time, which increases precipitation
efficiency near/in the updraft of any organized storm. Given how moist
the atmosphere will be with the lack of upper level wind flow for the evacuation
of hydrometeors downstream, think the overall hail potential for tonight
is not that great. Running the parameters in the LHP algorithm comes
up with a value of 5. This suggests that golf balls would be on the
upper end of the hail size distribution. Other threats would be wet
microbursts of 60+ mph. The most significant threat would be very heavy
rainfall leading to flooding. As stated above, there is low confidence
is where the heavy precipitation will fall as models are in disagreement.
It is also foolish to state that 10.1 miles southwest of Dodge City
will see 1.34" of rain between 18Z today and 12Z tomorrow morning, as
this simply isn`t effective meteorology. We just don`t have that skill
to do that. Bottom line, if a storm festers over you, you could easily
see an 1"+ of rain, while your neighbor might see practically squat.
Lastly, SPC has some of the area in a 5 percent tornado, although I`m
not sure about that given weak 0-1 km bulk shear and any significant
STP is well south of the forecast area. This isn`t the environment for
discrete supercells but an amorphous blob of convection.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
For Saturday, some minor upper level disturbances are forecast
across the Central and Southern Plains with a cold front and
baroclinic zone south across west Texas into Oklahoma. A marginally
severe MCS will likely track south of Kansas along the baroclinic
zone with the best chances for thunderstorms across southern Kansas.
Highs on Saturday look fairly cool, with mostly cloudy skies, in the
mid to upper 70s.
For Sunday, a more substantial upper level trough moves across the
Plains on Sunday night with the ECMWF model showing thunderstorms
likely with another MCS while the GFS has most of the heavy rainfall
over far western Kansas. Current thoughts are severe chances do not
look all that good with moist adiabatic lapse rates. May need to
adjust precip chances upwards as the ECMWF shows heavy rainfall
potential. Highs still look fairly cool and only in the 70s.
For the period Monday into Thursday, a warming trend is in the
offing with highs warming back into the 80s Tuesday into Thursday
with lows in the 60s. Thunderstorms chances look minimal as an upper
level trough moves east of the region and minor upper level ridging
moves back into the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
Strong to severe convection will likely develop again this
afternoon potentially affecting GCK and DDC terminals along a
quasi-stationary surface boundary. By late afternoon into this
evening, numerous thunderstorms will be likely and we will
continue with VCTS in the TAF through much of the evening. After
midnight, a large cluster of thunderstorm activity should finally
begin to shift east of the GCK/DDC/HYS terminals with northeast
winds prevailing and ceilings likely in the MVFR range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 63 78 60 / 50 90 50 40
GCK 83 62 76 59 / 50 80 30 40
EHA 82 62 78 59 / 70 90 40 50
LBL 84 63 79 61 / 80 90 50 50
HYS 83 62 77 59 / 10 70 40 20
P28 84 66 81 64 / 70 80 60 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
518 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 518 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
The MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) appeared to be centered near
Pocahontas Arkansas at 5 pm CDT and appears to be hitting the apex
of its northerly component of movement along the Missouri/Arkansas
Border. Most of the LAPS surface bases theta-E, CAPE and,
helicity data for the two hours seems to be focusing the greatest
instability axis into northern Tennessee at this time. However,
given ageostrophic response to this MCV, the impressed frontal
boundary is responding by moving northward ahead of this
circulation. This may adjust the surface/elevated instability
slightly north during the next three hours, at least enough to
warrant a mention of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity
along the border counties north of the Missouri Bootheel and along
the Kentucky border counties with West Tennessee. At this time, am
more concerned with pockets of heavy rain setting up in this area
and wind threat gradually diminishing with the loss of insolation
(sunshine). For now, have just updated the gridded, text, tabular
forecast to reflect a more eastward trajectory of the shower and
thunderstorm activity through at least 00z-01z.
The 4km NAM-WRF (ARW version) and 3km HRRR runs from this afternoon
suggest a similar evolution of the convection, with the NAM-WRF a
little more robust with the convection through 10 pm versus a
downward trend with the HRRR. Both are about 20-30 too far south
with the storm scale convection, but are fairly good considering.
The key later on will what this MCV and associated line of
convection does to the effective frontal boundary. This could have
significant impact on Saturday`s severe convective potential.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
Looks like a rain free night coming up over much of the region as
stationary front draped across AR/nrn MS should keep most of the
activity to our s/w. However, this boundary will lift back to the
n/e during the day Saturday as another mid lvl short wave moves east
from the Plains. Indications are that another MCC type thunderstorm
complex may initiate during the early PM Sat out over MO, then track
ese along the boundary as the afternoon progresses. Best guess right
now is that this complex will affect se MO, sw IL and the wrn tip of
KY later in the afternoon/early evening hours. Shear and instability
should be sufficient to support some severe storm threat, and high
PWATS indicate any storms could produce more locally heavy rainfall.
With the ground already saturated in many areas, will need to
monitor for potential flash flooding where storms may repeat.
Nocturnal convection may then refire as a sfc low pushes east across
srn IL Saturday night. Areas closest to this low path, esp up along
the I-64 corridor, will stand the highest chc of receiving more
storms with very heavy rain. Luckily, this appears to be the least
likely area to get heavy rain/storms during the day Sat.
Once the sfc low and trailing cold front move east of the region
Sun...some drier air should work in from the nw and bring most rain
chcs to an end Sunday/Sunday night. The break may be short lived
however.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
Unsettled weather pattern will continue through the extended
forecast. Both ECMWF and GFS show low pressure over southeast
Kansas at 00z Tuesday, moving only to around KSTL by 12z
Wednesday. Both models produce quite a bit of precip across the
PAH forecast area from Monday through Wednesday, with a very slow
tapering off from west to east Wednesday night into Thursday. Went
with increasing pops Monday to likely pops for Monday night, then
kept pops in the high chance category through Tuesday night.
Though timing is still a bit in question, ECMWF and GFS are at
least very similar with the track of the low, thus the likely pops
Monday night, and if the models stay consistent, even higher pops
in the Monday night to Tuesday night time frame are probable.
Models finally take the low into the Great Lakes region by 12z
Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually taper off
Wednesday night and Thursday as the low moves farther northeast.
Went with a dry forecast for Thursday night, then models show a
week upper level wave generating some QPF across the area Friday.
Went with slight chance pops for showers and storms for now, but
this system may end up being slower.
Temperatures will remain around seasonal readings through the
extended.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
Stationary front draped across AR/northern MS will likely keep
most of the organized convection southwest of the TAF sites
through the period. Could see more MVFR or possible some IFR vsby
reductions in fog/haze late at night into early in the day Sat.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
129 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS NE OF CROSSVILLE TN SHOWING UP ON MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGE. THERE IS STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE WE COULD SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE TN BORDER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS TN IS A FOCUS OF CURRENT CONVECTION SOUTH
OF NASHVILLE TN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND MOST
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A VERY
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TN BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE CURRENT PRECIPITATION CHANCE
CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOG HAS LIFTED INTO A
LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE BIG SANDY VALLEY REGION AND HAVE MADE SOME
SKY COVER CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER THE STRATUS WILL BE LIFTING AND THINNING FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL
ALSO MAKE NDFD UPDATES BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WITH THE CLEARING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS A FEW HOURS AGO THE
FOG SET IN AND BECAME THICK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE BEEFED IT UP
IN THE GRIDS AND ALSO ISSUED AN SPS THROUGH 13Z TO HIGHLIGHT THE
DENSE PATCHES WITH VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. ALSO
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT T/TD/SKY OBS AND TRENDS
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS. A FRESH SET OF ZONES WERE ISSUED...TOO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO EAST KENTUCKY. THE
REMNANT CLOUDS FROM THE EARLIER MCS OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE ARE
EXITING FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE
HELPED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSH FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
WILL SERVE TO KEEP ANY POP UP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE ROBUST FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH DAWN
WITH SOME PLACES SEEING PATCHY DENSE FOG. WILL MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT FOR A POSSIBLE SPS OR NPW LATER IN THE SHIFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY VARY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN SOME
VALLEYS...AND TO THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ARE FOUND IN
THE FAR SOUTH...AND ALSO ON SOME RIDGES. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH AS THE WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT FLAT
RIDGING THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE A SERIES OF TROUGHS PASS
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. RELATIVELY FAST FLOW...WITH MINOR WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN...EXISTS ATOP KENTUCKY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. EARLY
ON...THESE RIPPLES DIVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH ONE MOVING
THROUGH LATE IN THE SHORT TERM HEADED MORE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS
THE SOUTHERN RIDGING BREAKS DOWN. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN EARLY ON TO THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...THE
NEARBY FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY AND
COMFORTABLE TODAY AS TEMPS PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AROUND LATE TONIGHT...PROBABLY TO A LESSER
EXTENT THAN TONIGHT GIVEN AN EXTRA DAY TO DRY OUT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE PATCHY FOG QUICKLY BURNING OFF IN THE
MORNING AND THEN DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE
A THREAT OF CONVECTION BUILDS BY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH WHEN THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM AND TONIGHT FOR RELATIVE ELEVATION
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP NEAR GUIDANCE OR BELOW...IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH TODAY AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE BUT
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING AS ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE RIDGES/TOUGHS IN AN
OVERALL PROGRESSIVE AND BROAD CONUS TROUGH LIKE FLOW. CORE OF THE
WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO RUN SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TIER...A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH FOR MAIN STORM TRACKS THAN TYPICALLY FOUND THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES...BOTH
RIDGING AND TROUGHING WILL PASS IN RAPID FIRE FASHION ACROSS THE
AREA AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH OUR CWA WITHIN THE HEART OF
A STORM TRACK CORRIDOR. CONSEQUENTLY EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE INTO
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH AT LEAST SOME TYPE OF THREAT OF RAIN IN EVERY PERIOD. WITH THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN EXPECT A NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND ON
AVERAGE AND A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE BETWEEN MAX AND MINS.
WITH THIS IN MIND BELIEVE THE GFS EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE AN EXCESSIVELY HIGH BIAS...REMINISCENT OF LAST SUMMER. IN
FACT...MODEL/GUIDANCE BLENDS PROVIDE A MUCH MORE REASONABLE RANGE
FOR EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. WILL STICK WITH RAW MODEL AND MOS
GUIDANCE BLENDS FOR TEMPS BEFORE TWEAKING TOWARDS THE TYPICALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER TN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE MS
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SOME FOG IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO
BE AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR JKL. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
602 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARM DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WAVER AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS AS SHOWERS ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO
CENTRAL MAINE AND THE MIDCOAST REGION AND AWAY FROM IMPINGING
HIGHER PRESSURE. HRRR AND RUC SHOW THESE CELLS WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND SHOW THIS TREND THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. USED THE UPS CROSSOVER FOG TECHNIQUE AND INCLUDED FOG IN A
FEW MORE AREAS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW. DAYTIME HEATING HAS
SPAWNED SCATTERED CONVECTION ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL.
SHOWERS WILL END AND CLOUDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SPRINKLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY...OTHER PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WITH APPROACHING RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S...BUT TURNING A BIT COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST AS THE WEAKENING SYNOPTIC FLOW ALLOWS WINDS TO TURN
ONSHORE.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH LOWS
ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM MID 40S TO MID 50S...ALONG WITH PATCHY
LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. FROM TIME TO TIME...A FEW SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE
AND ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SHOULD BE DRY AND
WARM SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL AGAIN FEATURE WARM WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AWAY FROM THE SHORES WITH A FEW POP UP STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE SAME GOES FOR TUESDAY AS WELL AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE MARITIMES WILL LEAD TO
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH LCL MVFR AND
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...LOCAL EARLY MORNING FOG AND HAZE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. SOME POP UP CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS SEEMS LIKE MORE OF A THREAT LATER MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER E. SEAS WILL
HOVER BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN SWELL...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN POSTED OUTSIDE THE BAYS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
LONG TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SCA SEAS TUE-WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TODAY... ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT FOLLOWED BY GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY AT NIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
1131 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DID AN UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS AROUND THE
LITTLE ROCKIES. THE MODELS DID WELL WITH THE PRECIP IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE ALL MISSED THE RAIN THAT CAME INTO
PHILLIPS COUNTY. HRRR MODEL IS NOW SHOWING IT BUT DIDN`T HAVE IT
THERE TWO HOURS AGO. SHOWS THAT IT DOESN`T EXTEND EAST MUCH AND IS
GONE BY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
INCLUDE WHETHER WE`LL SEE ANY FOG OR NOT TONIGHT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
200 WITH THE PRECIP THEY HAVE GOTTEN. FRANSEN
POP COVERAGE FOR TODAY CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS SCATTERED SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ISOLATED TO THE NORTH. RADAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OF HAVING A LONE SHOWER STRAY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY FAR COOLER TODAY COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL 850MB TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGE IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THE JUNE SUN WILL HELP
BUT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO EXIT AND DIMINISH AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES. ONCE
AGAIN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH NORTHERN ZONES
AS WELL AS DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
A FEW ISOLATED 30S ARE ALSO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THIS
CHANGES ON SATURDAY HOWEVER AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE
+10C. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANCE WOULD EXPECT MAINLY A DRY
DAY BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A LONE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO INITIATE NEAR THE MT/ND
BORDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. RISING 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL ALSO MEAN A CONTINUATION OF THE MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOOK FOR NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY ACROSS MONTANA AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE...COULD
SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A MAINLY DRY
FRONT.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH/LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AND LINGERS THERE ON FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER BETWEEN UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (GFS) AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (ECMWF) ALOFT FOR EASTERN
MONTANA FOR THIS PERIOD. EITHER WAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
SYNOPSIS: A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING
SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EVEN MORE SO
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
FROM CANADA WHICH WILL CLEAR SKIES.
IMPACTS: EXPECT TO HAVE A FEW LOW TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY ESPECIALLY AT KGDV...BUT THE
MAIN BAND OF RAIN PROBABLY WILL PASS ALONG JUST SOUTH OF KGDV.
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IF NOT CALM THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TAF CYCLE. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
TRENDING TOWARDS PARTLY SUNNY AND A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND DOMINATES THE NORTH
COUNTRY`S WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARM SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1217 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW EXITING THE REGION TO OUR EAST. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES...WITH 995MB SFC LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA. WE/LL CONTINUE
TO SEE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SOME EMBEDDED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN GREEN MTNS. KCXX SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER...IN AN AREA OF 200-300 J/KG SBCAPE
PER RUC ANALYSIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SSEWD AFFECTING THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NRN GREEN MTNS NEXT 1-2 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...BUT A FEW PEEKS
OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NW AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTN 15-20 MPH. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO...LOOKING AT UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE VERY
SUMMER-LIKE WITH GENERALLY CLEAR NIGHTS...A FEW DIURNAL MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE. LOWS FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE IN THE
50S...AND HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT FRIDAY...A REVIEW OF THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS UNFORTUNATELY DOESN`T INCREASE MY CONFIDENCE IN REGARD
TO SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST TRENDS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS WEEKEND`S RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC TO HOLD RATHER
TOUGH AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH
INDICATIONS THAT THE MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL BE MORE WESTERLY ALONG
WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL INITIALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER PLAINS/NRN GREAT
LAKES NOW APPEARS TO LIFT OUT/DAMPEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN RIDGE SUCH THAT ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
ESSENTIALLY WEAKENS/WASHES OUT OVER TIME. MODELS HAVE RESPONDED TO
THIS CHANGE BY SHOWING MORE DISORGANIZED/NEBULOUS AREAS OF AIRMASS
CONVECTION POPPING HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD...SO NOT MUCH OF A CONFIDENCE
BUILDER IN ATTEMPTING TO PROJECT BEST THREAT OF CLOUDS/SHOWER
THREAT. TO KEEP AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WILL MAINTAIN THE
IDEA FOR AT LEAST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER DURING THESE
EARLY WEEK PERIODS AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR
NORTH...BUT REALLY NOT THAT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. IN
FACT MUCH OF THE TIME FRAME MAY END UP BEING DRY GIVEN RELATIVE
LACK OF DYNAMICAL FORCING IN THE BROADLY CONFLUENT ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW AND ONLY MODEST PBL INSTABILITY. TIME WILL TELL AND AS
WE PROGRESS TOWARD NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES. WITH THE GENERAL LACK OF AIRMASS
CHANGE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY FROM 75-80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CRNT SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS
OUR TAF SITES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT.
OBS SHOW A COMBINATION OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS AT MSS/MPV AND SLK ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLOUDS.
SOUNDINGS AND LATEST VIS SATL PICS SUPPORT A SLOW CLRING TREND
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BY
00Z THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 20 KNTS THIS AFTN...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. HAVE NOT MENTIONED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LLVL
WINDS AND AMOUNT OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING
NORTHWEST SFC FLW...BUT CRNT SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 50S MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES FOR
SAT THRU MONDAY. A WEAK SFC TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY ALOFT MAY
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1222 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
TRENDING TOWARDS PARTLY SUNNY AND A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND DOMINATES THE NORTH
COUNTRY`S WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARM SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1217 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW EXITING THE REGION TO OUR EAST. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES...WITH 995MB SFC LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA. WE/LL CONTINUE
TO SEE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SOME EMBEDDED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN GREEN MTNS. KCXX SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER...IN AN AREA OF 200-300 J/KG SBCAPE
PER RUC ANALYSIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SSEWD AFFECTING THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NRN GREEN MTNS NEXT 1-2 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...BUT A FEW PEEKS
OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NW AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTN 15-20 MPH. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO...LOOKING AT UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE VERY
SUMMER-LIKE WITH GENERALLY CLEAR NIGHTS...A FEW DIURNAL MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE. LOWS FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE IN THE
50S...AND HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT FRIDAY...A REVIEW OF THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS UNFORTUNATELY DOESN`T INCREASE MY CONFIDENCE IN REGARD
TO SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST TRENDS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS WEEKEND`S RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC TO HOLD RATHER
TOUGH AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH
INDICATIONS THAT THE MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL BE MORE WESTERLY ALONG
WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL INITIALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER PLAINS/NRN GREAT
LAKES NOW APPEARS TO LIFT OUT/DAMPEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN RIDGE SUCH THAT ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
ESSENTIALLY WEAKENS/WASHES OUT OVER TIME. MODELS HAVE RESPONDED TO
THIS CHANGE BY SHOWING MORE DISORGANIZED/NEBULOUS AREAS OF AIRMASS
CONVECTION POPPING HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD...SO NOT MUCH OF A CONFIDENCE
BUILDER IN ATTEMPTING TO PROJECT BEST THREAT OF CLOUDS/SHOWER
THREAT. TO KEEP AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WILL MAINTAIN THE
IDEA FOR AT LEAST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER DURING THESE
EARLY WEEK PERIODS AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR
NORTH...BUT REALLY NOT THAT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. IN
FACT MUCH OF THE TIME FRAME MAY END UP BEING DRY GIVEN RELATIVE
LACK OF DYNAMICAL FORCING IN THE BROADLY CONFLUENT ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW AND ONLY MODEST PBL INSTABILITY. TIME WILL TELL AND AS
WE PROGRESS TOWARD NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES. WITH THE GENERAL LACK OF AIRMASS
CHANGE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY FROM 75-80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...SCT/BKN MVFR/VFR CIGS FROM 020-050 AGL
TRENDING VFR FROM 040-080 AGL BY 15Z...THEN SCT/SKC BY 00Z.
LINGERING -SHRAS/SPRINKLES ALSO POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KRUT THROUGH 14Z
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. WINDS
TRENDING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTER
14/15Z BEFORE TRENDING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12 SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER AND ASSOCIATED
BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS. WEAK WEATHER FEATURES AND MODEL DIFFERENCES
LEAD TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT KMPV/KSLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AVIATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED. WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 00Z. THEREAFTER...SCT TO ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NRN/WRN OK...AFFECTING KGAG/KWWR
FIRST. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM 00Z
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...BRINGING MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KSPS. FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z...A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
UPDATED...
ADDED A FEW COUNTIES TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH 60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS IN THE DEVELOPING
SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TSRA WILL AFFECT MOST SITES BEFORE 17Z WITH BRIEF GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER
17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
ANYTIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE
BIGGER HAZARD.
CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OUT. A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS CLUSTER AS IT MOVES EAST. THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE CLUSTER...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
WEAKER. THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THAT
MAY PRODUCE HAIL...GUSTY WIND...AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
RATES 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS
WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA. LATEST RADARS
INDICATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MOVING EAST...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THINK THIS CLUSTER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN HAZARD. LATEST HRRR RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND A
FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT
TOO STRONG...WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE FROM OCCURRING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA AROUND 6 OR 7 AM. WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
THIS AFTERNOON...REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS MAY OCCUR...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS WILL
RECOVER AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST. STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...SO STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE GREATER. PINPOINTING
EXACTLY WHERE THIS COMPLEX WILL OCCUR REMAINS CHALLENGING...BUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA HAS THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS
WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES EXIST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WITH SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD EACH DAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.
DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST STORMS AND RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS IN BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE.
FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHICH AREAS WILL GET THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 89 69 81 / 40 40 60 50
HOBART OK 69 90 68 84 / 40 30 60 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 97 71 87 / 20 20 40 40
GAGE OK 67 84 64 77 / 70 40 60 40
PONCA CITY OK 68 85 67 79 / 70 60 60 40
DURANT OK 72 92 71 85 / 30 20 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH VCNTY LOWER MI MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE INFLUENCE
ACRS MUCH OF SRN WI. MOIST AXIS RETURNING AROUND HIGH AND AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS FROM NW WI INTO NW IA. PLACEMENT OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD REFLECTS THIS HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AND HIGHER
MLCAPE ENVIRONMENT FROM IA INTO NRN WI. SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
SPOTTY CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE NW CWA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATING DIURNALLY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES. COOLEST WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING LINGERS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING. THIS GIVES WAY TO
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FORCING AS ISODROSOTHERM AXIS SHIFTS EAST
INTO SRN WI AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEANS IN. AXIS OF HIGHER CAPE
EXPECTED IN SC WI. WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST...PRETTY MUCH
IN LINE WITH GOING GRIDS. 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH A NEARLY DRY
SCENARIO FOR ALL OF SRN WI. REASON BEING IS THEIR SOLUTION HAS THE
SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH WITH 500 RIDGING LINGERING INTO SE WI. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON A DRY SCENARIO FOR THE FAR EAST FOR THE WHOLE
DAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO BLEND WITH
NEIGHBORS BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM THIS BACK SHOULD
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK. NAM/ECMWF KEEP 925 TEMPS 18-20C
CWA WIDE WITH THE GFS QUICKER ON 925 COOLING INTO NW CWA.
EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND 80 OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE COOLED OR RAIN
COOLED AREAS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE 850MB COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI SAT NIGHT AT
THE SAME TIME AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS IL. THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 850MB FRONT
PHASED IN ONE LINE AND DROPS THE 850MB FRONT ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO
NORTHERN IL BY NOON SUNDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF MOVE THE SHORTWAVE EAST
OF IL BY 7 AM SUNDAY BUT STALLS THE 850MB FRONT OVER CENTRAL WI
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
CHANCES TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
850MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE...NORTHWEST OF MADISON OR OVER
MADISON AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT.
NOTHING TOO NOTEWORTHY ABOUT THE CONVECTION...WITH ML CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF A LITTLE OVER AN INCH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS SOME FORCING
WITHIN LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HANGS ON. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
BE DRY BY AFTERNOON THOUGH...WITH HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A 500MB SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA.
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER...ALTHOUGH KEPT
LOW POPS IN SOUTHERN WI DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING THE NEXT FRONT
THROUGH WI ON THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WEATHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL...POSSIBLY
CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CU FIELD PLACED IN HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AWAY
FROM THE DRIER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT FORM WILL
BE CONCENTRATED IN THIS AREA...SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TAF
SITES INTO THE EVENING. KMSN WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS/FRONT LEANS
INTO SRN WI WITH MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXITING PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING... POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IF/WHEN MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...WEAK RIDGING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA...AND A
SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN. THE WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS...NOW MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE...DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY WEAK 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON WATER
VAPOR...THOUGH. SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE.
WITHIN THE CLEAR SKIES LIED A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE...
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN. IN ITS
WAKE...A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS BEEN GENERATING
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
COMBINATION OF RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND 06.06Z RAP DATA SUGGESTS THE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 15Z...AND PERHAPS 12Z. DID INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER GIVEN PERSISTENT LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE SHORTWAVE CORE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL THEN CLIMB OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE CORE OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WOULD NORMALLY MAKE ONE THINK OF A DRY FORECAST
DUE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...THE 06.00Z GFS/HIRES
ARW/REGIONAL CANADIAN/SPC WRF-NMM AND 06.05Z HRRR ALL WANT TO
DEVELOP ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FORCED EITHER FROM THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT MARCHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO NORTHERN
WI...OR FROM PURE INSTABILITY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE CAPPING
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60...BUT THE CAPE THAT DOES DEVELOP IS SKINNY.
BELIEVE THE 80S ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THAT WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF
SUN AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C BY 00Z. THE DEWPOINTS ARE
ALSO REASONABLE SEEING LOW 60S EXISTED LAST EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SO IN SUMMARY...DESPITE THE 500MB RIDGING...FEEL SOME 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES ARE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WENT WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GIVEN THE VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE PROGGED
AND EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE.
FOR THOSE MODELS THAT DEVELOP SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY ALL
AGREE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
IN THE EVENING. THUS ONLY HAVE THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES GOING TIL
02Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONGOING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
BAND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND WILL DEPEND
ON BOTH HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKE IT.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND CENTRAL WI BY 12Z...WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCES LATE IN
THE NIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA IN THE EVENT THE BAND
MAKES IT IN. MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR THE BAND TO AFFECT
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
MAIN LONG TERM ISSUES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AND
MONDAY.
SATURDAY IS AN INTERESTING SETUP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A FAIRLY WOUND UP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING KS...MO AND IL WHILE
WEAK TROUGHING CROSSES MN. THESE TWO FEATURES COME TOGETHER A BIT AT
THE SURFACE BY CONVERTING THAT COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH...SOMETHING MORE SIMILAR WE LOOK FOR
IN WINTER. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SOME OF THE MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED-NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO HIT THE
LOW 60S AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF IT.
AGAIN SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPPING WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
WEAK TROUGHING COMING IN. CAPE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE...251-750
J/KG 0- 1KM MIXED LAYER...SUPPORTING MORE THUNDER. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM
SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH STAY LESS THAN 25KT...THUS LITTLE
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN. PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY CLIMBS TO 1.3-1.4
INCHES SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN A LITTLE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK TROUGH AND WOUND UP SHORTWAVE
PUSH EASTWARD. DID KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH THE 06.00Z GFS/NAM.
WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH...TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...LOOKS TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 06.00Z ECMWF REMAINS PERSISTENT
IN BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WHILE THE
06.00Z GFS/CANADIAN ARE DRY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
ECMWF...FEEL 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOPEFULLY MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH LATER CYCLES. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ON MONDAY ARE EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. THE WETTER ECMWF WOULD
MEAN HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
CWA...WHILE THE DRIER GFS/CANADIAN WOULD BE MID TO UPPER 70S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR TROUGHING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
RESULTING IN RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE
ALSO SUGGESTIONS OF AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSING FROM KS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. FOR THE MOST PART THIS SHOULD YIELD A
DRY PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE BEGUN TO TREND THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. STILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RELATED TO A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...
WEDNESDAYS CHANCES ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODERATE TO BACK
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE COOLER MONDAY. COULD SEE ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND THIS HAS LED TO A
SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS FIELD. MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT ENOUGH THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
LIGHTNING. CHANCES LOOK LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS
AT THIS POINT...BUT ANY PILOTS TRAVELING IN OR OUT OF KLSE/KRST
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY. WHATEVER ACTIVITY OCCURS WILL DIMINISH
DIURNALLY THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ANTICIPATED AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH TO NORTHWEST. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILING AND VISIBILITY INTO MVFR
CATEGORY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT TO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS JUNCTURE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1103 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...CU FILED FILLING IN FROM NE IA INTO WC WI IN
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AWAY FROM THE DRIER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH.
ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT FORM WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THIS AREA...SO
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES. KMSN WILL BE A CLOSE CALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH HRRR KEEPS THIS DEVELOPMENT MOSTLY TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA ON SATURDAY
AS INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LEANS INTO SRN WI WITH MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A LITTLE CHANGE IN COURSE IS NEEDED FOR TODAY. MODELS SUGGEST...AND
SATELLITE DERIVED PW SHOWS...AN AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH PW/S OF AROUND
1 INCH HAS DRIFTED INTO THE AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES APPROACHING
800-1000J/KG FROM MADISON ON WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
80...SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIRE OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF MADISON. THE COLUMN IS PRETTY
DRY ABOVE ABOUT 8KFT...SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLD TO SCT IN
NATURE. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DEVELOPMENT AT
PEAK HEAT...THEN FALLING APART BY SUNSET. COOLER READINGS AND A
MORE STABLE LOOKING SOUNDING SHOULD KEEP EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
DRY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN GENERAL WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
KEEPING IT CHILLY AT THE BEACH.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SHOULD BE QUIET AFTER THE DIURNAL PRECIP DISSIPATES. HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL INTO
THE 50S MOSTLY PLACES. COOLEST WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
NOTHING TOO NOTEWORTHY ABOUT THE CONVECTION...WITH ML CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS...AND
PRECIPITABLEWATER VALUES OF A LITTLE OVER AN INCH. SHOULD SEE
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH FOR DECENT HEATING...SO
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS SOME FORCING
WITHIN LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HANGS ON. LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD BE DRY BY AFTERNOON THOUGH...WITH HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
MONDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THESE POPS THOUGH...AS MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY FROM WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...TO LAKE HURON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL...POSSIBLY
CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT KMSN.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV