Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/05/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TODAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL RESUME FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH ONGOING DRY WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT TUESDAY...NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE OVERNIGHT SATELLITE
PRODUCTS PICKING UP WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED REPORTS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS. WITH SURFACE FLOW FORECAST TO REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH
THE MORNING, SHOULD SEE DRIZZLE CONTINUING AT LEAST TO MID-
MORNING. SOME ROADS WILL BE WET AND LIKELY SLIPPERY LEADING TO
MORNING RUSH ISSUES. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
LATER TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
70S AND LOWER 80S INLAND -- GENERALLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WON`T CHANGE MUCH FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A WEAKLY DEFINED LONGWAVE TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
WEST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
WARMER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE SE. SO, DESPITE LITTLE CHANGE AT 500
MB, THE WARMER AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO LIFT DAYTIME
HIGHS ACROSS OUR AREA. BY FRIDAY COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S WHILE INLAND SPOTS WILL RETURN BACK INTO THE 80S TO
MID 90S FOR HOTTEST AREAS. DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION FOR COASTAL
DRIZZLE FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AS WELL AS WEAK IMPULSES GO ACROSS
OUR CWA.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND HELPING TO FINALLY FORCE THE
LONGWAVE TROF OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF
ADDITIONAL WARMING MAKING SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
ALMOST ALL SPOTS. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS AS
850 MB LEVELS HIT THE 25-27C LEVEL. SURFACE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE HEAT AWAY FROM
THE COAST. LATEST ECMWF IS BOOSTING HIGHS FOR INLAND SPOTS TO VERY
WARM/HOT LEVELS THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IF THE TREND GOES
MUCH HIGHER. SAN JOSE IS NOW FORECAST TO NEAR 95 DEGREES WHILE
CONCORD IS AROUND 100. CURRENT FORECAST VALUES STILL FALL SHORT OF
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONG
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL LOWER BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT TUESDAY...GOOD STRATUS DECK THIS
MORNING IMPACTING ALMOST ALL TERMINALS...KSJC IS STILL REPORTING
CLEAR. THE PROFILERS AND SODARS INDICATE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER
THIS MORNING AND CIGS ARE HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. GENERAL
BURN OF 18-19Z THIS MORNING. CIGS RETURN TONIGHT...POSSIBLE EARLY
RETURN. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS CLOSE TO 2K FEET WILL IMPACT KSFO THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. CLEARING WILL BE CLOSE TO 18Z. GUSTY ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 06Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. LATEST STRATUS MODEL PUTS
CLEARING AT 1847Z...SEEMS LIKELY. 18-19Z PER THE HRRR MODEL AS WELL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. VFR OCCURS AT KSNS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LESS CERTAIN FOR
KMRY. KMRY MAY ONLY SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR BEFORE CIGS RETURN.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE WEST COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF POINT REYES. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THEN SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
727 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
7PM UPDATE...
BULK OF THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AS WEAK MESO-RIDGE
BUILDS IN IN ADVANCE OF MCS IN THE OH VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
MOST OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE REMNANTS OF THAT MCS
APPROACH THE SW REACHES OF NEW ENGLAND DURING AFTER SUNRISE. MOST
OF THE MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE DELAYS THIS UNTIL AFTER 09Z ALTHOUGH
THE HRRR BRINGS IT IN FASTER. OTHERWISE...JUST DEALING WITH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WHILE DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THIS EVENING...A FEW ISOLATED SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE BEST
INSTABILITY WAS ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE
THERE WAS ABOUT 500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. SO WE CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT. AGAIN THOUGH...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MID
AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST NEAR THE SOUTH COAST***
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON AMOUNTS/LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TRACK OF THE MCS CURRENTLY
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN HOW MUCH AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE
MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF A SYSTEM LIKE
THIS WHEN CONVECTION IS INVOLVED. THERE HAS BEEN VERY POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH MANY OF OUR
MODELS...WHICH GIVES US BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
GIVEN THE TIGHT CIRCULATION/FORCING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT TO SEE A DECENT SHIELD OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION IS WHERE DOES THIS MAIN AXIS SETUP?
THERE ARE TWO MAIN POSSIBILITIES. THE FIRST IS THAT CONVECTION
PULLS THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH...WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
RAIN NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AS THE 12Z GFS DEPICTS. OUR OTHER
GUIDANCE IS FURTHER NORTH...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN TRACKING RIGHT ACROSS THE MA TURNPIKE.
OVERALL...GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD WE BLENDED THE GUIDANCE AND
WENT WITH A COMPROMISE. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAINFALL FROM WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF MA
TURNPIKE AND PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. OTHER THAN SOME
TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING...NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A RAINY DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS OR EVEN DRIZZLE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL...BUT A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH BEST SHOT IN OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...CLOSER TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
04.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HANDLING THE FAIRLY ROBUST
NRN STREAM JET NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER. ALL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A TRANSITION FROM WET AND UNSETTLED THU...TO SHOWERY...THEN
FULLY DRY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE ARE TYPICAL BIASES
AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE HANDLING OF A WAVE APPROACHING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...A CONSENSUS BLEND SHOULD TAKE INTO ACCOUNT MOST OF
THE ISSUES.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...AFTER THE EXIT OF A TROF FRI INTO
SAT...WEAKENING MID LVL RIDGE SHOULD CREST OVER THE REGION SUN AND
EXIT BY MON. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER CAN/T BE
RULED ON FRI OR SAT...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRY CONDITIONS.
AGREE THAT TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS GIVEN
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY THE NRN STREAM. REGARDING THE TROF FOR
MID NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN BY MCS
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDWEST...SOMETHING MODELS TYPICALLY DON/T
HANDLE WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. WILL TREND TOWARD MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BUT THE EXACT DETAILS/TIMING WILL TAKE SOME
MORE TIME TO REFINE.
DETAILS...
FRI AND SAT...
CORE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE E OF THE REGION AS
THE BLOCKING GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW IN THE WRN ATLANTIC. A
COMBINATION OF UPPER LVL AND SFC RIDGING WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE W...ALLOWING DRY SUBSIDENCE TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE
COLUMN. HOWEVER...THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE FLOW ALOFT ON FRI THAT A LINGERING -SHRA IS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS LOOKS TO
BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION...WHERE
MOISTURE LINGERS AND BEST REMNANT LIFT REMAINS. BY SAT
HOWEVER...LOWER LVL TEMPS SHOULD HAVE INCREASED FASTER THAN THE
UPPER LVLS...YIELDING SOME MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM.
THEREFORE...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED -SHRA OR T-STORM. CAPE IS
LACKING...AS IS A SOURCE OF LIFT...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OR IF ANY VERY WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS...WILL HIGHLIGHT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS WOULD BE HIT OR MISS. H85 TEMPS START AROUND +8C ON
FRI...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND +11C ON SAT...SO WITH NORMAL
SUMMERTIME MIXING...EXPECT MAINLY MID 70S ON FRI...THEN UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S ON SAT.
SUN INTO MON...
HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THEN SLIDE E BY EARLY MON.
MAINLY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED AS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE FULLY IN
CONTROL. GIVEN THE RIDGE ONLY WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WILL LEAN
SLIGHTLY ON THE SLOWER TIMING OF ANY PRECIP INTO MON FOR THE TIME
BEING. H85 TEMPS AROUND +13C SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO
REACH INTO THE LOW-MID 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLATED HIGH 80S
POSSIBLE.
THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE RIDGE MOVING TO THE E...A SUPPRESSED AND FLATTENED WAVE
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W AND TRYING TO CROSS THE REGION. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION
OVER THE MID WEST...WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE. THE FLATTENED
FLOW AND THERMAL WIND FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AFTER THE FIRST
WAVE...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW A SECONDARY WAVE TO
ARRIVE BY TUE AND WED. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WILL
BE AT LEAST TRANSITIONING FROM THE DRY WEEKEND TO THE MORE
UNSTABLE/WET EARLY WEEK TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...BEST LIKELIHOOD IS FOR GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR /ESPECIALLY
FOR CIGS/. LOCALIZED FOG MAY LEAD TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR AS
WELL. IN THE TERMINALS IN W MA/CT...MAY REMAIN MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OFT THE NIGHT...BUT THEN LOWER TO MVFR AHEAD OF
SOME RAINFALL DURING THE EARLY MORNING. NOTE THAT EXACT TIMING AND
CATEGORIES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN RAIN. HEAVIEST/STEADIEST RAIN MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE
MA TURNPIKE AND PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. OVERALL...FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL
AFTER 06Z...THEN GRADUAL REDUCTION TO MVFR POSSIBLE IN FOG/RAIN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FRI MORNING GIVE WAY TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH SAT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A T-STORM BOTH AFTERNOONS.
SUN INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZED MVFR FOG SUN NIGHT AND
POSSIBLE -SHRA BY THE DAYTIME MON.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG MAY RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT PARTICULARLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING MUCH OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. SWELL FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN SOME
5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT ACROSS OUR OUTER-
WATERS. WE PROBABLY WILL EVENTUALLY NEED SOME SCA HEADLINES...BUT
SINCE IT PROBABLY WILL END UP MAINLY A 3RD PERIOD EVENT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING.
A LINGERING SWELL AROUND 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WITH W WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT.
THEREFORE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE
DAY.
SAT AND SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE W THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. W WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT...S WINDS ON SUN.
MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO START...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT NEAR SHORE WIND
GUSTS OUT OF THE S MAY REACH AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST...WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTH AS A TROUGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT TO
OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS IT APPROACHES OR ENTERS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA).
LATEST LAPS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIRLY DRY
AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR FA. THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTH FA STILL LOOKS OK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND AN H5 DIFLUENT FLOW MAY
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW
BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR
SOUTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD
INCREASE FOR THURSDAY BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE INTO A PRE-FRONTAL
OR LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGHING. STILL...THE CHANCE APPEARS LIMITED
BECAUSE OF A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH H85 WESTERLY FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE CHANCE POPS STILL APPEAR
HIGH ENOUGH. STRONG MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S
-6 TO -7. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING AND
CONSIDERABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL-GROWTH REGION WITH WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS NEAR 10500 FEET. THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH H85 WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS. THESE FACTORS
SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST EXCEPT
THE WARMER GUIDANCE APPEARS BETTER WITH THE TEMPERATURES JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE FRONT OR ITS REMNANTS NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT POPS OF
20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY...AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CU WITH VFR
BASES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH
TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. SO...WILL NOT MENTION TS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF ANY MID/UPPER
CLOUD COVER. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1135 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST...WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTH AS A TROUGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT TO
OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS IT APPROACHES OR ENTERS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA).
LATEST LAPS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIRLY DRY
AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR FA. THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTH FA STILL LOOKS OK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND AN H5 DIFLUENT FLOW MAY
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW
BECAUSE OF LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD
INCREASE FOR THURSDAY BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE INTO A PRE-FRONTAL
OR LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGHING. STILL...THE CHANCE APPEARS LIMITED
BECAUSE OF A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH H85 WESTERLY FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE CHANCE POPS STILL APPEAR
HIGH ENOUGH. BELIEVE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THURSDAY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -6 TO -7.
THE NAM ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING AND CONSIDERABLE
CAPE IN THE HAIL-GROWTH REGION WITH WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR
10500 FEET. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST EXCEPT
THE WARMER GUIDANCE APPEARS BETTER WITH THE TEMPERATURES JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE FRONT OR ITS REMNANTS NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT POPS OF
20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY...AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CU WITH VFR
BASES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH
TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. SO...WILL NOT MENTION TS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF ANY MID/UPPER
CLOUD COVER. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1007 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
810 PM CDT
FOG NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM AND THEN FOG
POTENTIAL INLAND OVERNIGHT ARE SOME EVENING CHALLENGES.
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN
AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY PULLS AWAY. DRY AIR
ADVECTION WITH THE HIGH IS NOT QUICK ENOUGH TO HALT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS OF LAKE MI AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT AREAS OF LAND EARLY THIS EVE. GARY INDIANA HAS REPORTED
ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY BRIEFLY WITHIN THIS FOG AND SUCH
TEMPORARY LOW VISIBILITY OR EVEN LOWER ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE...MAINLY OF NW IN...PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. LATE DAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURED THE FOG WELL...WITH A WELL- DEFINED
BACK EDGE FROM ROUGHLY MILWAUKEE TO BENTON HARBOR BEING SHOVED BY
THE NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS BACK EDGE OF THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
ARRIVE NEAR THE NE IL AND NW IN SHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT IF IT KEEPS
UP ITS CURRENT PROPAGATION. PER WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS THIS FOG
HAS HUGGED THE SHORELINE AREAS THUS FAR BUT MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND
FURTHER INLAND AFTER DARK WHICH A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE. HAVE EXPANDED THE FOG MENTION DURING THE EVE HOURS IN
THE FORECAST...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THE LINGERING HIGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS FURTHER INLAND MAY SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING INCREASES. THINK WIND COMPONENT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PREVENT ANY DENSE FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD AND ITS RARE TO HAVE
DENSE FOG BE WIDESPREAD IN JUNE. BUT T/TD SPREADS OF ONLY 4
DEGREES AT KANKAKEE AND 5 DEGREES AT PONTIAC DO LEND TO SOME
UNEASINESS. SO CONTINUE PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS AT THIS TIME.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
320 PM CDT
SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT SKIES WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. THEREFORE...I
HAVE DELAYED THIS A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT TIMING WOULD KEEP
MOST OF MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AFTER
1 TO 2 AM...WITH FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS CLEARING UP BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE EXCESS MOISTURE STILL AROUND...WITH DEW
POINTS STILL WELL INTO THE 50S...AND THE FACT THAT THE AREA WILL NOT
HAVE A CHANCE TO REALLY DRY OUT WITH SUNSHINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. I ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM CHICAGO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR A FEW SPECTACULAR
DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN
LIKELY REMAIN DOMINATE THERE INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO
EFFECTIVELY SHIFT ALL OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THIS...FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS...IN THE 40S AND 50S...ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL MAKE FOR GREAT
CONDITIONS TO GET OUTSIDE. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SOME COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE...HOWEVER.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
MOISTURE TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SETTING THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE...SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL CONVECTIVELY ENHANCE THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
THEN TRACK IT ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN A QUASI
ZONAL STATE..WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP IN THE EXTEND PERIOD WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE UPPER MIDWEST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE COOLING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR EASTERN
ILLINOIS WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW APPEARING TO BE NEAR MGC. IF THIS
CONTINUES SOUTHWEST...IT SHOULD BE THROUGH GYY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STILL SOME STRATUS/FOG OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE LAKE BUT NOT MOVING INLAND AT THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THIS DRIFTS INLAND. CMS
PREVIOUS 00Z DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LAKESHORE AREAS INCLUDING GYY THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH SPECIFICS FOR GYY BUT
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE.
AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR TONIGHT...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AND THE USUAL AREAS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD THE
FOG MAY BECOME IS LOW HOWEVER AND AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
TEMPO MENTION AT RFD/DPA. FOG MAY ALSO PERSIST NEAR THE LAKESHORE
OVERNIGHT.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN TURN MORE EASTERLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS BACK NEAR 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME CU IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST/CENTRAL IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BY LATE MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* LOW FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSRA.
* SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA/TSRA. MORNING MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS EAST...THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITING THE
LAKE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL ASSIST THE FRONT IN MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
EARLY SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS POTENTIALLY AROUND 20 KT DURING
THIS PERIOD FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE
THE STRONGEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LAKES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH.
FOR ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
TOPPING OUT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SINCE LATE THIS MORNING...
SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MARGINAL CONDITIONS EXIST...MAINLY
BETWEEN WILMETTE HARBOR AND GARY BASED ON WIND DIRECTION AND OBS
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT AM
PLANNING TO DROP SCA AND BEACH HAZARD HEADLINES WITH AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
902 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Cold front has sunk to the Ohio River valley this evening, and
a ridge of high pressure building south across Lake Michigan has
turned winds northeast over the entire forecast area. Drier air
will be advected in through the night, with dew points falling
into the 50s north of I-74 already and this should spread over
most of the area over the next several hours. Clearing trend
continues to spread southward as well, but the RAP continues to
keep partly cloudy skies lingering around the southern fringes of
the CWA through the night. One item to watch is the fog potential,
primarily over the northern CWA where skies will be clearer. A
small area of low clouds and fog was evident this hour on 11-3.9mu
satellite imagery across the south quarter of Lake Michigan and
the adjacent Indiana shore, and the RAP model shows some of this
advecting southwest after midnight. Forecast visibility does show
it stopping shy of the CWA as the forecast sounding near
Bloomington is fairly dry late tonight except at the immediate
surface, so will leave this out for now and monitor the trends.
Updated zones/grids have been sent, mainly for sky cover and to
remove the lingering PoP`s in the far southeast CWA this evening.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 627 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Band of MVFR ceilings persisting in central Illinois in the
northeast flow over the TAF sites, mainly in the KPIA-KCMI
corridor at 23Z. Clouds have been breaking up over northeast
Illinois, and will continue with the clearing trend later in the
night for our TAF sites. Latest RAP guidance showing a period of
MVFR conditions redeveloping at KSPI/KDEC toward 03Z and lasting
about 3-5 hours, and have included that trend. However, it also
shows a band of LIFR conditions dropping down from Lake Michigan
late in the night that could affect KBMI/KCMI. This does not seem
to match with the corresponding forecast soundings, so will not
include mention of it at this time. Later in the forecast period,
will see some diurnal cumulus developing again by late morning,
but in the VFR range. Northeast winds overnight to settle into a
more easterly direction on Thursday as high pressure builds over
Lake Michigan.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Problems today are the current boundary in unstable air mass over
the southeast, and several minor upper systems to move through and
trigger precip chances.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.
Surface low by this afternoon over central IN with weak
convergence on boundary that trails to the west into central MO.
Convection appears to be forming along boundary and in area of
MLCAPEs of 2500 and moisture convergence, SPC went with watch over
far southeast CWA. Boundary is shifting to the south slowly and so
watch will most likely be in affect for few hours.
Models all bring minor wave into southern sections for Friday
night, so kept chance pops in region.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.
Weak upper level flow does allow another weak system to move into
region Saturday into Sunday. Upper support at this time seems to
be weak in weak zonal flow aloft and so severe potential still
uncertain. Kept pops in region through weekend.
Another weak system for midweek in the continuing zonal flow.
Goetsch
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
631 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
320 PM CDT
SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT SKIES WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. THEREFORE...I
HAVE DELAYED THIS A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT TIMING WOULD KEEP
MOST OF MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AFTER
1 TO 2 AM...WITH FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS CLEARING UP BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE EXCESS MOISTURE STILL AROUND...WITH DEW
POINTS STILL WELL INTO THE 50S...AND THE FACT THAT THE AREA WILL NOT
HAVE A CHANCE TO REALLY DRY OUT WITH SUNSHINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. I ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM CHICAGO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR A FEW SPECTACULAR
DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN
LIKELY REMAIN DOMINATE THERE INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO
EFFECTIVELY SHIFT ALL OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THIS...FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS...IN THE 40S AND 50S...ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL MAKE FOR GREAT
CONDITIONS TO GET OUTSIDE. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SOME COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE...HOWEVER.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
MOISTURE TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SETTING THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE...SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL CONVECTIVELY ENHANCE THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
THEN TRACK IT ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN A QUASI
ZONAL STATE..WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP IN THE EXTEND PERIOD WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE UPPER MIDWEST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE COOLING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LAKESHORE AREAS INCLUDING GYY THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH SPECIFICS FOR GYY BUT
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE.
AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR TONIGHT...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AND THE USUAL AREAS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD THE
FOG MAY BECOME IS LOW HOWEVER AND AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
TEMPO MENTION AT RFD/DPA. FOG MAY ALSO PERSIST NEAR THE LAKESHORE
OVERNIGHT.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN TURN MORE EASTERLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS BACK NEAR 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME CU IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST/CENTRAL IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BY LATE MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* LOW FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSRA.
* SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA/TSRA. MORNING MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS EAST...THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITING THE
LAKE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL ASSIST THE FRONT IN MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
EARLY SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS POTENTIALLY AROUND 20 KT DURING
THIS PERIOD FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE
THE STRONGEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LAKES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH.
FOR ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
TOPPING OUT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SINCE LATE THIS MORNING...
SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MARGINAL CONDITIONS EXIST...MAINLY
BETWEEN WILMETTE HARBOR AND GARY BASED ON WIND DIRECTION AND OBS
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT AM
PLANNING TO DROP SCA AND BEACH HAZARD HEADLINES WITH AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ014 UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001 UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
628 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Problems today are the current boundary in unstable air mass over
the southeast, and several minor upper systems to move through and
trigger precip chances.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.
Surface low by this afternoon over central IN with weak
convergence on boundary that trails to the west into central MO.
Convection appears to be forming along boundary and in area of
MLCAPEs of 2500 and moisture convergence, SPC went with watch over
far southeast CWA. Boundary is shifting to the south slowly and so
watch will most likely be in affect for few hours.
Models all bring minor wave into southern sections for Friday
night, so kept chance pops in region.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.
Weak upper level flow does allow another weak system to move into
region Saturday into Sunday. Upper support at this time seems to
be weak in weak zonal flow aloft and so severe potential still
uncertain. Kept pops in region through weekend.
Another weak system for midweek in the continuing zonal flow.
Goetsch
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 627 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Band of MVFR ceilings persisting in central Illinois in the
northeast flow over the TAF sites, mainly in the KPIA-KCMI
corridor at 23Z. Clouds have been breaking up over northeast
Illinois, and will continue with the clearing trend later in the
night for our TAF sites. Latest RAP guidance showing a period of
MVFR conditions redeveloping at KSPI/KDEC toward 03Z and lasting
about 3-5 hours, and have included that trend. However, it also
shows a band of LIFR conditions dropping down from Lake Michigan
late in the night that could affect KBMI/KCMI. This does not seem
to match with the corresponding forecast soundings, so will not
include mention of it at this time. Later in the forecast period,
will see some diurnal cumulus developing again by late morning,
but in the VFR range. Northeast winds overnight to settle into a
more easterly direction on Thursday as high pressure builds over
Lake Michigan.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
408 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MOVE EAST ALONG THIS
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH UPPER 60S NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AN INTERESTING SHORT TERM PERIOD TO CONTEND WITH. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
MOVED IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING AND DRY
AIR INTRUSION HAS LED TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER
40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HIRES
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DEGREE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WITH HRRR BEGINNING TO GRAB ONTO IT. THIS A CONCERN
FOR EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR OUR AREA. NAM12 HAS BEEN THROWN OUT GIVEN ITS
CONTINUED OUTLIER SOLUTION OF BEING FURTHER NORTH. BLEND OF OTHER
HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY USED.
RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
AND INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT...NEARING OUR WESTERN
BORDER AROUND SUNRISE. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH LOCATION AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON IT DEVELOPING AND HEADING
TOWARD INDIANA. WARM FRONT BOUNDARY TO SOUTH WILL TRY TO WORK NORTH
TONIGHT WITH STRONG THETA E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET. EXPECT 850-700MB INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT CONCERN GROWING
THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO WORK NORTH ESPECIALLY ONCE MCS
BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED AND SURFACE BASED. THIS SHOULD TAKE BULK OF
STRONGEST CONVECTION SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY RETARD NORTHERN MOVEMENT
OF WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA. HIRES MODELS TAKE MCV INTO INDIANA
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
AND ASSOCIATED HIGHEST QPF. CURRENT THINKING FAVORS SOUTHERN
SOLUTIONS WITH HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN HALF BUT STILL
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS NORTH. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER LOW IN THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN POOR TIMING AND LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT
IN FAR WEST ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IF SYSTEM IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH MCV AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN AFTERNOON. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WITH HIGH
THETA E AIR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES BUT
SPEED OF SYSTEM TO HELP LIMIT AMOUNTS. KEPT HEAVY RAIN MENTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTH AND AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA LOOKS BEST. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY WILL CREEP
NORTH BUT EXPECT OUTFLOWS AND MCV CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH TO KEEP
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WIND SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE NEAR THE WARM FRONT WITH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS WITH LARGE CURVING
HODOGRAPHS DEPICTED. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND A FEW MODELS
SHOWING FURTHER NORTH PLACEMENT...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SEVERE
IN HWO FOR NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE BEGINNING OF THIS
SYSTEM HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH A LARGE HAIL/CORE STORM THAT WAS
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
FAVOR THE 12Z 4KM NAM WHICH IS VERIFYING THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH REASONABLY WELL...BUT WAS SHOWING TOO MUCH
DEVELOPMENT TOO FAR NORTH IN THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THEREFORE...
WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST. THERE WAS STILL SOME VARIETY
AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM CONCERNING THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
CONSENSUS AMONG THESE MODELS INDICATES CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWERED LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE PERIOD WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS
ALLOWED FOR STRONGER MIXING AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH
ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT GUSTS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE. LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO IL LATE
TONIGHT AND ACROSS INDIANA WEDNESDAY. QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONG
MODELS AS TO ITS TRACK AND EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT SO KEPT TAFS IN A
PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW WITH MORE REFINEMENT IN LATER ISSUANCES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
627 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL KS EAST ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHERN IL TO A LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AT
19Z. A WEAK TROUGH AND LAKE ENHANCED BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TRAILED
W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL IL THROUGH EASTERN IA INTO FAR SE MN. ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WERE KEEPING
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WAS ALSO TRIGGERING A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER...DRIER AIR OVER NW IL INTO EAST CENTRAL IA...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER SE IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL IL. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...WHICH WAS HELPING BUILD A 1014 MB
SURFACE HIGH DOWNSTREAM OVER UPPER MI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FOCUS AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TONIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDES EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE WEAK
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL LEND
A MORE UNIFORM E-NE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND FAVORING CLEARING SKIES. LOW LEVEL RH
FIELDS IN 18Z RAP MODEL...WHICH HAD A DECENT DEPICTION OF CLOUD
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...ADVERTISES THIS CLEARING TAKING
PLACE FROM NE TO SW...WITH SE IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL IL POSSIBLY
HANGING ON TO CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER. WITH
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CLEARING EARLIEST AND LIKELY TO SEE
DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...HAVE MINS THERE
RANGING FROM 49 AT FREEPORT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S NORTH OF I-80.
LATER CLEARING AND HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN WILL HOLD
AREAS TO THE SOUTH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR
ON LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANY FOG
POTENTIAL BELOW THRESHOLDS WORTH MENTIONING...BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.
THURSDAY...THE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.
GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOOKED REASONABLE AND WERE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DEPICT TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY WITH ONE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND THE OTHER TO THE SOUTH OF
EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS AND WILL LEAVE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
A LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WE ENJOY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING. AS
THE RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH... MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CONTINUED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND THUS HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WHICH SPLITS THIS ENERGY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE WOULD MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA
WHILE THE SECOND DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
AND WOULD LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE GFS
AND LEAVE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION...BRINGING DRY AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THE
REMAINING MVFR/VFR CIGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO A CLEAR SKY. THERE
IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN THIS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FROM THE EAST WILL CONTINUE.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
309 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
LATEST THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS FAR WEST AS A BENKELMAN TO GOODLAND AND
CHEYENNE WELLS LINE. THIS AREA IS WITHIN A 700 THETA-E AXIS ALONG
THE DRY LINE WHERE STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAXIMIZED
WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. BY 3 PM THE INSTABILITY
AXIS...FORCING AND LIFT SHOULD BE A COUNTY OR TWO FURTHER EAST AS
THE DRY LINE SURGES THAT DIRECTION. BY 6 PM MDT (7 PM CDT) THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND EAST OF A
MCCOOK TO GOVE TO LEOTI LINE. BY 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT) STORMS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA.
12Z NAM/18Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDEX VALUES
OF 65 TO NEAR 75KTS WHILE THE 12Z NCEP 4KM WRF-NMM INSTANTANEOUS
WIND GUST POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75
MPH. GFS EVEN HAS GUSTS OVER 75 MPH. WILL PLAY UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO POTENTIAL
ALTHOUGH CLOUD BASES WILL BE RATHER HIGH.
ONCE THE CIRRUS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND DRY LINE MOVES IN SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT FASTER INTO THE MID 90S TO AROUND
102. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 45 MPH TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
FOR TONIGHT SHOULD SEE A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WHERE SOME CIRRUS IS EXPECTED. EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOME
FOG IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MCCOOK...OBERLIN AND NORTON AREAS
AND HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
ON WEDNESDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PER 700-500RH MOVES INTO FAR
EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS IN WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 21Z
BRINGING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S EXCEPT A FEW LOW 90S ACROSS WALLACE...GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WEDNESDAY EVENING A 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE A DRY LINE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING THEN MOVE SOUTH FOLLOWING THE SURFACE LOW. ANTICIPATE
THE COMBINED LIFT OF THE DRY LINE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
FACILITATE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY HIGH LCLS SO AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT MUCH RAINFALL WILL REACH THE
GROUND IN THE EVENING...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE THE 700-500MB MIXING RATIO INCREASES AND
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE
ANTICIPATE STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA WHERE ELEVATED CAPE WILL RANGE FROM
800-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR HAS INCREASED WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...NOW AT 50-60KTS. WITH THIS MUCH SHEAR THE WEAKER UPDRAFTS
MAY BECOME SHEARED APART...BUT THE STORMS ROOTED IN THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE STORMS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA DURING THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST IN THE MORNING. CAPE
PROFILE ARE FAIRLY NARROW IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND WINDS IN THE
LAYER ARE 30-40KTS. HOWEVER WITH VERY GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AT THE
CLOUD BASE AND THE STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...QUARTER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH CERTAINLY SUPPORTS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THURSDAY MORNING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO
ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE CINH AHEAD OF THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES OUT WHICH WILL ALSO
AFFECT HOW LONG THE STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY AM
ANTICIPATING THE STORMS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO THE MORNING
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CINH. WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL LIFT OVER THE
AREA CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS FROM DEVELOPING SO WILL KEEP
SOME VERY LOW PRECIP. CHANCES GOING AS A RESULT.
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER 500MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WEAKEST CAP BEING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30KTS AND CAPE OF 1200 J/KG OR SO...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THURSDAY EVENING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ENDS. DURING THE EVENING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HIGHER 700-500MB
MIXING RATIOS MOVE OVER THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS
SHOW ELEVATED CAPE WITHIN THE HIGHER MIXING RATIOS SO WILL HAVE
HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. DID INCLUDE A MENTION
OF ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA DUE TO HIGHER MIXING
RATIOS AND BROAD LIFT MOVING OVER THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 50KTS SO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHERE ELEVATED
CAPE IS AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLY UP TO GOLF BALL IN SIZE SINCE THE CAPE PROFILE IS
MUCH LARGER AND WINDS IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE ARE STRONGER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS
NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE TRI-STATE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANTICIPATE STORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH LITTLE TO NOT BREAK BEFORE STORMS
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE ELEVATED CAPE REMAINING OVER
AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON A 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA WHICH WILL SERVE TO INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR WITH IT. A STRONGER 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FRIDAY...EXPECT
STORMS TO FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT THE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM FORMING WITH ITS PASSAGE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE HIGH. SOUNDINGS SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA AGAIN AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.
WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EACH DAY BUT
SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS 25G35KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
BY 20Z THEN W/NW BY 23Z. AROUND 02Z A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15G25KTS FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS NORTHWEST THEN NORTH
AROUND 10KTS. MAY SEE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE NEAR OR
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AROUND 20Z WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST
AROUND 25KTS...THUS IF ONE DEVELOPS IT WOULD ONLY BE IN THE AREA
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POST FRONTAL STRATUS
MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME.
KMCK...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED FROM
TAF ISSUANCE TO 23Z THEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-20KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 02Z. FROM 02Z-05Z COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25KTS OR SO. AFTER 06Z WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AROUND 12KTS.
HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN THE 23Z-01Z TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WONT GET TOO SPECIFIC AT PRESENT
TIME. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOME BR/FG AND POST FRONTAL STRATUS
MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AREA IN THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
343 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014
...Updated Long Term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
The main focus for this afternoon and evenings forecast is again for
chances of severe convection. One big negative for convective
development this afternoon is a warming mid level. Of the convective
allowing models a couple allow no storms across southwest Kansas
while the NMMs, 4 km NAM and the HRRR all support some type of
brief, mainly isolated supercell development coming out of eastern
Colorado near the dryline and sweeping east into west central KS.
Sufficient shear and MUCAPE combinations are in place to support a
brief window of severe threat including large hail (golf balls to
tennis balls in most instances) as well as damaging supercell RFD
winds. Any severe threat is likely confined to locations west of
highway 83 and is low to begin with given the trouble storms will
have gaining large depth.
Wind advisory conditions will persist through sunset before the
surface heating ceases. Some of the warmest overnight temperature of
the season will be experienced tonight and early tomorrow especially
across south central Kansas. The surface cold front will push though
the area by noon on Wednesday providing northeasterly upslope
surface flow. Models at this time are not indicating any additional
convection, at least during the daytime hours on Wednesday. The
model consensus for highs Wednesday range from upper 80s north to
upper 90s south and west.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A convectively active period awaits midweek through the weekend as
southwestern Kansas finds itself in a favorable west-southwest flow
regime with a mean upper tropospheric jet extending from southern
California to central Kansas. A cold front will push south late
tonight into early Wednesday before stalling out just to our south
across the northern Panhandles/far northwest Oklahoma. A few
surface-based storms may form across Barber County late afternoon
Wednesday, however a very warm middle troposphere will likely
prevent surface based convection. Things will change quite a bit
overnight Wednesday night as the 850-700mb layer becomes very warm
frontogenetic as a weak upper level disturbance ripples
east-northeast through the pattern. The warm frontogenetic forcing
for ascent will be quite strong during the 06-12Z Thursday time
frame. Ample moisture in this frontogenetic layer will contribute to
upwards of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE during the overnight hours. All the
reliable global mesoscale models at this time frame are bullish on
nocturnal convective development...and fairly vigorous at
that...especially north of a Garden City to Dodge City to Pratt
line. 2-7km AGL deep layer shear in combination with the
aforementioned 2000 CAPE will be more than favorable for elevated
severe storms capable of very large hail perhaps to two inches in
diameter. A heavy rain threat will also exist as storms would likely
form in a northwest to south east orientation with some individual
convective cell training a distinct possibility.
Everywhere we have 50 or greater POP we will amend the thunderstorm
forecast with Large Hail and Heavy Rain. This will be mesoscale
convective system (MCS) Number One. The overall pattern will remain
unchanged, and the setup for another MCS (Number Two) will likely
take place across the southern half of the DDC forecast area
(along/south of the Arkansas River) in a renewed zone of 850-700mb
warm frontogenesis. MCS Number Two would likely move off into south
central KS and/or northern Oklahoma by daybreak Friday with some
recovery taking place through the day Friday. The surface front will
likely remain just south of the Kansas-Oklahoma border with
post-frontal upslope convection likely to form across eastern
Colorado late in the day Friday. Some of this diurnal activity may
spread into far west-central/southwest Kansas by early Friday
evening as MCS Number Three. What seems more likely is that
nocturnal MCS Number Three will materialize after sunset Friday as
yet another minor disturbance moves northeast through the pattern
across the Central Plains. Eventually, a final, stronger shortwave
trough will eject out into the Central Plains by late in the weekend
and surface-based storms may impact southwestern Kansas. By Saturday
and Sunday, though, the details become increasingly sketchy as the
result of MCS Number Three may place the effective front too far
south for MCS Number Four to impact southwestern Kansas.
The bottom line is that a wet period is in store and much of the
southwest Kansas region will see in excess of an inch of rain before
all is said and done. There will likely be some areas of the
southwest Kansas region that see MUCH more than that...especially of
successive MCS`s track over the same general areas of our region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Thunderstorms
may develop in extreme eastern Colorado this afternoon, and spread
east as high based supercells, the remnants of which may affect the
terminals between 23 and 02 UTC. A surface frontal boundary will
drop into the area by around 10 UTC turning winds northwest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 92 62 84 / 10 10 50 40
GCK 64 92 61 82 / 20 10 50 40
EHA 65 94 61 85 / 10 10 20 20
LBL 66 95 63 87 / 20 10 30 20
HYS 66 85 60 81 / 30 10 50 50
P28 72 97 66 86 / 10 20 60 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ061-062-074-084.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
241 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Southerly winds around 25 knots developed by early afternoon across
most of the forecast area with exception of the far southeast
counties. Temperatures warmed into the the low 90s with dew points
mixing out by around 5 degrees F around Dodge city and eastward.
Farther west the dew points had mixed out more significantly near
the CO state line, however the observation at Syracuse was still in
the mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
The main focus for this afternoon and evenings forecast is again for
chances of severe convection. One big negative for convective
development this afternoon is a warming mid level. Of the convective
allowing models a couple allow no storms across southwest Kansas
while the NMMs, 4 km NAM and the HRRR all support some type of
brief, mainly isolated supercell development coming out of eastern
Colorado near the dryline and sweeping east into west central KS.
Sufficient shear and MUCAPE combinations are in place to support a
brief window of severe threat including large hail (golf balls to
tennis balls in most instances) as well as damaging supercell RFD
winds. Any severe threat is likely confined to locations west of
highway 83 and is low to begin with given the trouble storms will
have gaining large depth.
Wind advisory conditions will persist through sunset before the
surface heating ceases. Some of the warmest overnight temperature of
the season will be experienced tonight and early tomorrow especially
across south central Kansas. The surface cold front will push though
the area by noon on Wednesday providing northeasterly upslope
surface flow. Models at this time are not indicating any additional
convection, at least during the daytime hours on Wednesday. The
model consensus for highs Wednesday range from upper 80s north to
upper 90s south and west.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A series of minor shortwave troughs will eject eastward across the
plains through Saturday night. A surface front will be stalled out
across Oklahoma most of this time. Nocturnal storm clusters will
develop north of the stalled out front in a warm advection pattern.
In addition, on Thursday and Friday, low level upslope flow and
elevated heating along the front range, Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa
will lead to thunderstorm clusters developing to our west and then
progressing across parts of western Kansas in the evening and at
night. Thus, there are chances for thunderstorms at some point in
the days or nights through early Sunday. Since the surface front
will be stalled to our south, the chance for tornadic type storms
is low, except for perhaps right along the Oklahoma state line
Friday and Saturday if the surface front edges far enough north.
However, severe weather with hail is still possible, and perhaps
even damaging winds. A break in the storm chances may occur by
Sunday and Sunday night as a shortwave trough pushes a cold front
into the southern plains.
Temperatures will be held down by upslope flow, cloud cover and even
storm outflow through Saturday, with highs mainly from the upper 70s
to the lower 90s. Lows will be mainly in the 60s given the high
dewpoints in place for most of the time. Highs may drop into the
mid 70s Sunday as surface high pressure builds into western
Kansas, with lows dropping into the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Thunderstorms
may develop in extreme eastern Colorado this afternoon, and spread
east as high based supercells, the remnants of which may affect the
terminals between 23 and 02 UTC. A surface frontal boundary will
drop into the area by around 10 UTC turning winds northwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A red flag warning is in place through this evening for Kearney
Hamilton, Stevens and Morton counties. If conditions meet red flag
criteria it will not be until after 4 pm, but could easily extend
through around 7 or 8 pm with red flag conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 91 62 84 / 10 10 60 50
GCK 64 88 61 82 / 20 10 60 50
EHA 65 93 61 85 / 10 10 20 30
LBL 66 91 63 87 / 20 10 30 30
HYS 66 87 60 81 / 30 10 30 30
P28 72 92 66 86 / 10 20 60 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ061-062-074-084.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
107 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
LATEST THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS FAR WEST AS A BENKELMAN TO GOODLAND AND
CHEYENNE WELLS LINE. THIS AREA IS WITHIN A 700 THETA-E AXIS ALONG
THE DRYLINE WHERE STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAXIMIZED
WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. BY 3 PM THE INSTABILITY
AXIS...FORCING AND LIFT SHOULD BE A COUNTY OR TWO FURTHER EAST AS
THE DRYLINE SURGES THAT DIRECTION. BY 6 PM MDT (7 PM CDT) THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND EAST OF A
MCCOOK TO GOVE TO LEOTI LINE. BY 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT) STORMS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA.
12Z NAM/18Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDEX VALUES
OF 65 TO NEAR 75KTS WHILE THE 12Z NCEP 4KM WRF-NMM INSTANTANEOUS
WIND GUST POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75
MPH. GFS EVEN HAS GUSTS OVER 75 MPH. WILL PLAY UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT IN THE HWOGLD PRODUCT.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH CLOUD BASES
WILL BE RATHER HIGH.
ONCE THE CIRRUS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND DRYLINE MOVES IN SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT FASTER INTO THE MID 90S TO AROUND
102. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 45 MPH TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. SATELLITE IS SHOWING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAN 24 HOURS AND THIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC HAS SHARPENED UP AND THE COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST HAS DEEPENED SOME. SATELLITE IS SHOWING A TROPICAL
CONNECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWS A VERY DRY AND HOT AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS. A PLENTIFUL
AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD.
AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN...SREF...NAM AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST.
AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
UKMET/NAM WITH THE ECMWF/SREF THE WORST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD.
THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT HAS MATERIALIZED OVER THE AREA WITH
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ANALYSIS AND
PROGS SHOW THAT ELEVATED CINH WILL REMAIN STRONG AND NOT ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. SO WILL KEEP THE MORNING DRY. LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS MOISTENING UP AND ALREADY HAVE FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING.
EVENING SHIFT PUT IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THAT LOOKS
ON TRACK.
MODELS AGAIN SHOWING DIFFERENCES AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN GENERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING JET LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS THEN MOVE THE JET AXIS/JET
LIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT PROVIDING CONTINUED LIFT.
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA.
COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN IS EMERGING. OLD FRONT HAS COME BACK
NORTH AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT/LOSING ITS BAROCLINICITY.
AT THE SAME TIME A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM HAS PUSHED A COLD
FRONT SOUTH. ONE OR TWO SCENARIOS LOOK LIKELY. MODELS SHOW THE WINDS
SHIFTING FROM AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING. SO
THEY ARE MOVING THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH...WASHING IT OUT
COMPLETELY AND KEEPING THE OTHER BOUNDARY NORTH OF US OR COMBINING
THE TWO. AS IT LOOKS NOW THIS SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE TO THE
NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
WITH SOME HELP FROM LIFT ALOFT...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR OUR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A DRY LINE THAT MOVES ACROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST. MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THIS DRYLINE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW THIS
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF IT. DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE WATCH IF THIS WESTWARD SHIFT CONTINUES. HOWEVER...THE
PROBLEM NO MATTER WHERE THE DRY LINE ENDS UP IS THE DRY AND HOT AIR
MASS ABOVE THE SURFACE. LOOK TO HAVE A STOUT EML PLUS 700 MB
TEMPERATURES OF +16 OR HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
SO THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT...WEAKEST CAP...LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
BREAK THROUGH WHATEVER INHIBITION THERE IS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET CONSIDERING THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY 06Z.
GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING TOWARD A WINDY DAY. AT THIS TIME IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY. THE GRADIENT...THREE HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS...AND 800 MB/850 MB WINDS STAY JUST UNDER/NEAR 45
MPH. COULD THERE BE A GUST OR TWO TO 45 MPH...YES...BUT VERY HARD TO
PINPOINT AND DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE IN THE WINDY CATEGORY
FOR A BRIEF TIME.
WITH WHATEVER FRONT NOW LOOKING TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS
MORNING...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
NUMBER OF AREAS LOOK TO GET ABOVE 100 DEGREES. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE
THAT THESE MAY STILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
PER FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FROM YESTERDAY AND FIRE WEATHER FOCAL
POINT GETTING FEEDBACK FROM AROUND THE AREA THAT FUELS HAVE GREENED
UP...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EVEN THOUGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS KEEP THE JET LIFT NEAR OR OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MAIN LIFT THROUGH MID LEVELS...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON AND DID NOT CHANGE.
SOME KIND OF JET LIFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
NIGHT PERIOD BECOMES MORE INTERESTING. ALL THE MODELS POINT AT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/OPEN WAVE AT 500 MB COMING IN ALONG WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OR SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION AT 700
MB. MODELS DISAGREE WHERE THEY PUT THE MAIN/BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE COLUMN ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SAY THERE SHOULD BE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PROBLEM IS THEY DIFFER ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH. THE GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH WITH SREF PROBABILITIES AND MORE
SPECIFIC WITH WHERE IT HAS THE HIGHEST QPF. OVERALL NWP POPS
INCREASED AND HAVE POPS FURTHER EAST DURING THE NIGHT. SO HAVE LOWER
POPS...INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING AFTER 06Z. IF MODELS WERE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON DETAILS WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GOING LIKELY. STORM
MOVEMENTS APPEAR TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM WEST TO EAST SO THERE
SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. MORE THAN LIKELY POPS WILL
NEED TO BE RAISED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS BUT
CONFIDENCE JUST NOT THERE RIGHT NOW.
MODELS WARMED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES DESPITE BEING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. DID RAISE MAXES BUT KEPT THEM BETWEEN THE COOLER AND WARMER
GUIDANCE.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA GETS WEAKER BUT
SOME KIND OF JET LIFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES. AGREE WITH THE DAY SHIFTS ASSESSMENT
ABOUT THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND LOOK TO HANG ON THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF THAT ALTHOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES
MENTIONED IN DISCUSSION ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE STILL IN PLAY. SO
AGAIN RAISED POPS IN THE MORNING BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE. THESE POPS COULD STILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. LOWER POPS
WERE INSERTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN LIFT EXPECTED TO BE
OUT OF THE AREA.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY CONSIDERING THE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING. CLOUD COVER
COULD ALSO LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
NEED TO BE LOWERED ESPECIALLY IF THE WETTER MODEL OUTPUT VERIFIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A WET AND SOMEWHAT COOLER PATTERN WILL SET UP LATE THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION HAVING A GREAT SHOT AT
RECEIVING A HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH SWIFTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SAME
TIME A COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING SOUTH DOWN THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AIDED BY EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. PWAT VALUES
WILL BE ONE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL /MODEL CONSENSUS
OF AROUND 1.2 INCHES LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY/ AND STORM
MOTIONS VERY SLOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY /LESS THAN 10KTS/
SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BEYOND THIS COLD FRONT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST...CENTERED OVER IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI BY
MONDAY MORNING...THUS TURNING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR WESTERN
KS/EASTERN CO/SW NEB AND ALLOWING MUCH WARMER AIR TO BE ADVECTED
NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING INTO WESTERN KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS 25G35KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
BY 20Z THEN W/NW BY 23Z. AROUND 02Z A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15G25KTS FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS NORTHWEST THEN NORTH
AROUND 10KTS. MAY SEE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE NEAR OR
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AROUND 20Z WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST
AROUND 25KTS...THUS IF ONE DEVELOPS IT WOULD ONLY BE IN THE AREA
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POST FRONTAL STRATUS
MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN THE 10-14Z TIMEFRAME.
KMCK...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED FROM
TAF ISSUANCE TO 23Z THEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-20KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 02Z. FROM 02Z-05Z COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25KTS OR SO. AFTER 06Z WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AROUND 12KTS.
HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN THE 23Z-01Z TIMEFRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WONT GET TOO SPECIFIC AT PRESENT
TIME. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOME BR/FG AND POST FRONTAL STRATUS
MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AREA IN THE 10Z-14Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON JUN 2 2014
RECORD AND/OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
(TUESDAY) AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:
GOODLAND...99 IN 1933
BURLINGTON...97 IN 2013
HILL CITY...98 IN 1934
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...99
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...DDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
08Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave moving across southern
NV towards the four corners region with a plume of subtropical
moisture being pulled into the central Rockies. Surface obs show a
warm and very moist airmass remains in place across the southern
and central plains. A poorly defined stationary front was set up
across southern Neb and southern IA as indicated by the objective
analysis of isotherms and isodrosotherms.
For today models show a good thermodynamic profile for deep moist
convection to develop across the area. Surface based CAPE is progged
to increase to as much as 3000 J/kg with little inhibition initially
over northeast KS. There is also some indication of increasing Q
vector convergence and PVA in advance of the shortwave as it crosses
the central Rockies this afternoon. The main source of uncertainty
in the models is the location of the surface boundary during peak
heating. The NAM/GEM/HRRR/RAP are tending to keep the boundary near
the NEB state line or slightly north of the state line. And the
GFS/ECMWF solutions lift the boundary north very quickly in the
evening. The other complicating factor is the advection of a strong
elevated mixed layer (EML) from the southwest through the evening.
With the majority of solutions suggesting the boundary and low level
focus for convection will be closer to the NEB state line, the
forecast continues to show the higher POPs over far northeast KS.
Have only a slight chance POP from Abilene to Emporia thinking the
capping inversion will advect into these areas by the late afternoon
inhibiting convection. By the late evening, the EML is likely to
bring an end to convection from west to east over the area.
As for severe potential, large hail and damaging winds would be a
good bet with any storms that develop given the 0-6 km shear of 50
to 60 kts and moderate instability. Discrete storms should quickly
become supercells due to the good deep layer shear. However 0-1 km
shear parameters from the NAM and RAP are rather weak (bulk shear
around 10 kts) through the afternoon, and models don`t show these
fields increasing until the low level jet begins increasing through
the evening. By this time, models suggest that convection may have
evolved into an MCS. So while there is a chance for tornados through
the afternoon, am not sure the set up is ideal. The exception would
be if the boundary sets up further south and surface winds are able
to remain backed to the southeast. If this were to occur, it would
most likely be across far northeast KS and still 0-1 km shear
parameters may only be marginally better for tornados. Additionally
heavy rain and flash flooding will pose a hazard as models show PWs
approaching 2 inches along the MO river valley this evening.
Considered a flash flood watch for northeast KS, but with most of
the guidance keeping the axis of heavier rainfall north of the
forecast area decided to hold off.
With models bringing the thermal ridge into central KS today, highs
should be warmer with upper 80s in the far east to middle 90s in
central KS. Previous forecast high looks reasonable and only made
minor adjustments. Tonight think the MCS should move off to the east
shortly after midnight as the EML continues advecting in. As for
lows Wednesday morning, models have trended slower with the Pacific
front sweeping through the area. This would keep a breezy southwest
wind and a mixed boundary layer for much of the forecast area.
Because of this have trended min temps up into the upper 60s and
lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Wednesday and Wednesday Night...An upper level trough will shift
east across the southern Great Lakes States and OH river valley. a
surface ridge will build southward into eastern KS through the
afternoon hours. Expect dry conditions through most of the period.
An MCS may develop across southeast CO and southwest KS during the
evening hours and track east across south central KS through the
night. This thunderstorm complex may begin to move into the
southwest counties of the CWA by sunrise. Highs will reach the mid
80s across much of the area with upper 80s across the southeast
counties. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Thursday and Thursday night...the northern edge of the MCS may move
east across the southern counties of the CWA during the morning
hours. A minor H5 trough will move east across the state and will
bring a chance for thunderstorms across the remainder of the CWA
during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these thunderstorms
may be strong to severe with the primary hazards being large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Another MCS may develop across
northeast NM and southeast CO. This MCS may track south of the CWA
late Thursday night into Friday morning. Highs will be around 80.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 60s.
Friday through Sunday...there will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms as an upper level trough across the desert southwest
gradually lifts northeast across the central an southern plains. Our
best chance for rain may occur Saturday night through Sunday morning
as the stronger ascent spreads northeast across eastern KS ahead of
the H5 trough. Also, a surface cold front will be pushing southeast
across the state of KS Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. The
front may push southeast of the CWA by Sunday afternoon allowing for
skies to clear.
Highs will be dependent on cloud cover but expect upper 70s to lower
80s for most areas. Sunday may be slightly cooler behind the cold
front with mid to upper 70s expected. Overnight lows will be in the
60s.
Monday...a surface ridge will build southward across KS bringing
dry weather. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
BKN cumulus field seen across KTOP/KFOE as a warm front gradually
lifts northward. Monitoring potential for TSRA development along
this boundary in the next few hours. While an isolated storm may
impact these two terminals, confidence is only high enough for a
VCTS mention aft 20Z. Warm front is north of KMHK with VFR
prevailing. Southerly winds increase through the aftn and
overnight period between 12 and 18 kts sustained. Gusts could peak
up to 30 kts especially in the late afternoon and early evening.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
619 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
08Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave moving across southern
NV towards the four corners region with a plume of subtropical
moisture being pulled into the central Rockies. Surface obs show a
warm and very moist airmass remains in place across the southern
and central plains. A poorly defined stationary front was set up
across southern Neb and southern IA as indicated by the objective
analysis of isotherms and isodrosotherms.
For today models show a good thermodynamic profile for deep moist
convection to develop across the area. Surface based CAPE is progged
to increase to as much as 3000 J/kg with little inhibition initially
over northeast KS. There is also some indication of increasing Q
vector convergence and PVA in advance of the shortwave as it crosses
the central Rockies this afternoon. The main source of uncertainty
in the models is the location of the surface boundary during peak
heating. The NAM/GEM/HRRR/RAP are tending to keep the boundary near
the NEB state line or slightly north of the state line. And the
GFS/ECMWF solutions lift the boundary north very quickly in the
evening. The other complicating factor is the advection of a strong
elevated mixed layer (EML) from the southwest through the evening.
With the majority of solutions suggesting the boundary and low level
focus for convection will be closer to the NEB state line, the
forecast continues to show the higher POPs over far northeast KS.
Have only a slight chance POP from Abilene to Emporia thinking the
capping inversion will advect into these areas by the late afternoon
inhibiting convection. By the late evening, the EML is likely to
bring an end to convection from west to east over the area.
As for severe potential, large hail and damaging winds would be a
good bet with any storms that develop given the 0-6 km shear of 50
to 60 kts and moderate instability. Discrete storms should quickly
become supercells due to the good deep layer shear. However 0-1 km
shear parameters from the NAM and RAP are rather weak (bulk shear
around 10 kts) through the afternoon, and models don`t show these
fields increasing until the low level jet begins increasing through
the evening. By this time, models suggest that convection may have
evolved into an MCS. So while there is a chance for tornados through
the afternoon, am not sure the set up is ideal. The exception would
be if the boundary sets up further south and surface winds are able
to remain backed to the southeast. If this were to occur, it would
most likely be across far northeast KS and still 0-1 km shear
parameters may only be marginally better for tornados. Additionally
heavy rain and flash flooding will pose a hazard as models show PWs
approaching 2 inches along the MO river valley this evening.
Considered a flash flood watch for northeast KS, but with most of
the guidance keeping the axis of heavier rainfall north of the
forecast area decided to hold off.
With models bringing the thermal ridge into central KS today, highs
should be warmer with upper 80s in the far east to middle 90s in
central KS. Previous forecast high looks reasonable and only made
minor adjustments. Tonight think the MCS should move off to the east
shortly after midnight as the EML continues advecting in. As for
lows Wednesday morning, models have trended slower with the Pacific
front sweeping through the area. This would keep a breezy southwest
wind and a mixed boundary layer for much of the forecast area.
Because of this have trended min temps up into the upper 60s and
lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Wednesday and Wednesday Night...An upper level trough will shift
east across the southern Great Lakes States and OH river valley. a
surface ridge will build southward into eastern KS through the
afternoon hours. Expect dry conditions through most of the period.
An MCS may develop across southeast CO and southwest KS during the
evening hours and track east across south central KS through the
night. This thunderstorm complex may begin to move into the
southwest counties of the CWA by sunrise. Highs will reach the mid
80s across much of the area with upper 80s across the southeast
counties. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Thursday and Thursday night...the northern edge of the MCS may move
east across the southern counties of the CWA during the morning
hours. A minor H5 trough will move east across the state and will
bring a chance for thunderstorms across the remainder of the CWA
during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these thunderstorms
may be strong to severe with the primary hazards being large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Another MCS may develop across
northeast NM and southeast CO. This MCS may track south of the CWA
late Thursday night into Friday morning. Highs will be around 80.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 60s.
Friday through Sunday...there will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms as an upper level trough across the desert southwest
gradually lifts northeast across the central an southern plains. Our
best chance for rain may occur Saturday night through Sunday morning
as the stronger ascent spreads northeast across eastern KS ahead of
the H5 trough. Also, a surface cold front will be pushing southeast
across the state of KS Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. The
front may push southeast of the CWA by Sunday afternoon allowing for
skies to clear.
Highs will be dependent on cloud cover but expect upper 70s to lower
80s for most areas. Sunday may be slightly cooler behind the cold
front with mid to upper 70s expected. Overnight lows will be in the
60s.
Monday...a surface ridge will build southward across KS bringing
dry weather. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
11Z surface obs continued to show a diffusely defined boundary over
southern NEB and northern MO. Meanwhile the latest RAP/NAM/HRRR
continue to suggest the stronger convective development is likely
to be north of the terminals. Because of this, confidence is low
that TS will move into the terminals before 00Z Wed while the
boundary remains to the north. In general there are signs of an
MCS clipping northeast KS between 02Z and 07Z. Will maintain a
VCTS for this period. Think that a strengthening cap after 07Z
should prevent storms from impacting the terminals. VFR conditions
are likely to prevail unless a TS moves in. There would probably
be some temporary IFR VSBY and CIGS with the TS. Some patchy
morning fog is not expected to amount to much and be short lived
as boundary layer mixing increase through the morning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
344 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
08Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave moving across southern
NV towards the four corners region with a plume of subtropical
moisture being pulled into the central Rockies. Surface obs show a
warm and very moist airmass remains in place across the southern
and central plains. A poorly defined stationary front was set up
across southern Neb and southern IA as indicated by the objective
analysis of isotherms and isodrosotherms.
For today models show a good thermodynamic profile for deep moist
convection to develop across the area. Surface based CAPE is progged
to increase to as much as 3000 J/kg with little inhibition initially
over northeast KS. There is also some indication of increasing Q
vector convergence and PVA in advance of the shortwave as it crosses
the central Rockies this afternoon. The main source of uncertainty
in the models is the location of the surface boundary during peak
heating. The NAM/GEM/HRRR/RAP are tending to keep the boundary near
the NEB state line or slightly north of the state line. And the
GFS/ECMWF solutions lift the boundary north very quickly in the
evening. The other complicating factor is the advection of a strong
elevated mixed layer (EML) from the southwest through the evening.
With the majority of solutions suggesting the boundary and low level
focus for convection will be closer to the NEB state line, the
forecast continues to show the higher POPs over far northeast KS.
Have only a slight chance POP from Abilene to Emporia thinking the
capping inversion will advect into these areas by the late afternoon
inhibiting convection. By the late evening, the EML is likely to
bring an end to convection from west to east over the area.
As for severe potential, large hail and damaging winds would be a
good bet with any storms that develop given the 0-6 km shear of 50
to 60 kts and moderate instability. Discrete storms should quickly
become supercells due to the good deep layer shear. However 0-1 km
shear parameters from the NAM and RAP are rather weak (bulk shear
around 10 kts) through the afternoon, and models don`t show these
fields increasing until the low level jet begins increasing through
the evening. By this time, models suggest that convection may have
evolved into an MCS. So while there is a chance for tornados through
the afternoon, am not sure the set up is ideal. The exception would
be if the boundary sets up further south and surface winds are able
to remain backed to the southeast. If this were to occur, it would
most likely be across far northeast KS and still 0-1 km shear
parameters may only be marginally better for tornados. Additionally
heavy rain and flash flooding will pose a hazard as models show PWs
approaching 2 inches along the MO river valley this evening.
Considered a flash flood watch for northeast KS, but with most of
the guidance keeping the axis of heavier rainfall north of the
forecast area decided to hold off.
With models bringing the thermal ridge into central KS today, highs
should be warmer with upper 80s in the far east to middle 90s in
central KS. Previous forecast high looks reasonable and only made
minor adjustments. Tonight think the MCS should move off to the east
shortly after midnight as the EML continues advecting in. As for
lows Wednesday morning, models have trended slower with the Pacific
front sweeping through the area. This would keep a breezy southwest
wind and a mixed boundary layer for much of the forecast area.
Because of this have trended min temps up into the upper 60s and
lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Wednesday and Wednesday Night...An upper level trough will shift
east across the southern Great Lakes States and OH river valley. a
surface ridge will build southward into eastern KS through the
afternoon hours. Expect dry conditions through most of the period.
An MCS may develop across southeast CO and southwest KS during the
evening hours and track east across south central KS through the
night. This thunderstorm complex may begin to move into the
southwest counties of the CWA by sunrise. Highs will reach the mid
80s across much of the area with upper 80s across the southeast
counties. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Thursday and Thursday night...the northern edge of the MCS may move
east across the southern counties of the CWA during the morning
hours. A minor H5 trough will move east across the state and will
bring a chance for thunderstorms across the remainder of the CWA
during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these thunderstorms
may be strong to severe with the primary hazards being large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Another MCS may develop across
northeast NM and southeast CO. This MCS may track south of the CWA
late Thursday night into Friday morning. Highs will be around 80.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 60s.
Friday through Sunday...there will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms as an upper level trough across the desert southwest
gradually lifts northeast across the central an southern plains. Our
best chance for rain may occur Saturday night through Sunday morning
as the stronger ascent spreads northeast across eastern KS ahead of
the H5 trough. Also, a surface cold front will be pushing southeast
across the state of KS Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. The
front may push southeast of the CWA by Sunday afternoon allowing for
skies to clear.
Highs will be dependent on cloud cover but expect upper 70s to lower
80s for most areas. Sunday may be slightly cooler behind the cold
front with mid to upper 70s expected. Overnight lows will be in the
60s.
Monday...a surface ridge will build southward across KS bringing
dry weather. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
For the 06z TAFs, calm winds overnight will become out of the south
by Tuesday morning and increase during the afternoon and evening
hours with gusts upwards of 20-30kts. Thunderstorm chances will
increase near the TAF sites by early evening, however there is still
uncertainty in the timing and tracking of these storms. Have added
VCTS at 02z Wed, but timing may need to be adjusted with future
updates as models get a better handle on this activity. Strong winds
are expected with these evening storms, so wind gusts will likely
need to be increased as we gain better confidence in the tracking of
these storms near the TAF sites.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
255 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
But first we have to deal with scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. We have an axis of higher moisture allowing
storms to fire off over southern Indiana so far today. This axis
will shift into the Ohio River Valley the rest of the afternoon
hours and allow for the storms to develop down here. The NAM
stability parameter for these storms seems too high, with it giving
us a higher threat for damaging winds and even hail in these storms.
The RUC looks a little closer to reality. This model indicates gusts
could get up to the 45-50 mph range in stronger downbursts.
Activity should wind down later this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. However, a frontal boundary will stall out
somewhere in the northeast half of our forecast area overnight,
providing a focus for new development toward daybreak Wednesday. In
addition, a potent MCS, developing at this time over NE/SD will rush
southeastward overnight. Will have to monitor how quickly this
system pushes towards us as it will play a key part in how our
severe weather threat pans out the rest of the day Wednesday.
With this forecast package we are still assuming a couple of rounds
of storms possible during the day Wednesday. The first with the
above front should taper off by late morning. A few models develop
new thunderstorms along this boundary even during the late morning
and early afternoon hours, which is not out of the question given
the moist airmass in place and boundaries running around. However,
still think the threat for severe will be highest should we get a
longer pause and consequent destabilization. Still looking at
discrete convection at the onset, which could lead to isolated
tornadoes over southern Indiana at first. Then as a line starts to
merge from these cells, we would see damaging winds take over as the
main threat, especially as model DCAPEs are well into the 1000s.
Timing this threat into the rest of Kentucky is a little more
difficult as we have to see how the line organizes. It should push
southeastward, but perhaps force new convection off to the west of
the line. The 4 km NAM blasts a long east/west line through our
whole forecast area in the evening, which would neutralize any
further threat for severe weather. However the 12km NAM has a
somewhat similar setup to what we had two Wednesday ago, with storms
first firing over southern Indiana, pushing southeast and then
additional development west of the line. That scenario would keep
the threat for severe weather well into the night, as well as the
potential for flooding rains in areas that get more than one round
of storms.
The actual front looks to move into the region early Thursday,
bringing an end to precip along with drier and cooler air. Have lows
Thursday morning ranging from the upper 50s in southern Indiana to
around 70 in south central Kentucky. Highs Wednesday of course will
depend on the cloud cover, but for now have readings similar to
today, though south central Kentucky taking longer to cloud over
should get them at least into the upper 80s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
The cold front will continue to move southward Thursday, sinking
south of the KY/TN border by mid day. Some showers or thunderstorms
will persist across south central KY in the morning hours before the
drier air work in during the afternoon. Dry conditions are then
expected Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the north.
Another wave riding along the frontal boundary may spread a few
showers into the southwestern portion of southern KY Friday, but
most of the region should remain dry through Friday night.
Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday with highs only reaching
into the mid to upper 70s. Lows will dip down into the mid to upper
50s. Friday will see a bit of warming with highs back into the lower
80s.
A warm front will then move back to the north across the area
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop as moisture surges back in, with the better chance for
storms Saturday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
Sunday into Sunday night ahead of the cold front. There is still a
bit of disagreement in the models as to how fast the cold front
moves through, but it should clear the area by mid day Monday and
high pressure will build in once again. We should then see dry
conditions through Tuesday. High temperatures will be back into the
mid 80s Saturday and Sunday. Behind the front Monday`s highs will
drop back into the upper 70s to around 80.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
Instability slowly increasing as morning clouds break up. Chance for
storms appear to be increase at KSDF and KLEX, with high enough
confidence in the former to go with a tempo group for gusty storms.
The chance will continue late in the overnight as a frontal boundary
stalls over the region and lift along in provides the focus for
additional storms. Think they will be scattered in nature, so have a
prob30 group in at KSDF and KLEX for the morning hours. We should
get additional storms late in the period at KSDF, but they may hold
off until the evening hours, so have kept out of the TAFs at this
point. Winds will stay out of the west and southwest today and then
pick up from the southwest Wednesday late morning as a low pressure
area approaches.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
227 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING
HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
TOWARD THE OH RIVER AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE
MORE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL. THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE SOME
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN IL AND OH THAT THEY MIGRATE SOUTH
AWAY FROM THE FRONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARD
SUNSET. THE MODELS HAVE THIS CONVECTION DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET.
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POPS FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH FROM LATE AFTERNOON. THESE CHANCE POPS WERE BROUGHT AS
FAR SOUTH AS JKL AND SJS THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT FROM WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT. TIMING OF THIS EVENT AND EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
LATE EVENING WITH A WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. THE
SHEAR APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF BOW OR
MULTIPLE BOW OR LINE SEGMENTS SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGION AND THEN PROPAGATE INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION BY LATE WED
EVENING OR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. SOME LARGE HAIL
AND A STRAY BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS. DISCRETE
CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD
APPEAR MORE PROBABLE MAINLY NORTH OF EAST KY...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW
TRACK AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT TO ITS EAST AND OR SOUTHEAST. MULTIPLE
THREATS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND ALSO IN A WEB
BRIEFING. ATTM...OPTED TO ADD A SEVERE ATTRIBUTE FROM THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS OF THU. ALONG WITH THIS A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ATTRIBUTE FROM THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
THU WERE ADDED TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE ZFP AND HOURLY GRIDS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WITH EXTENSIVE SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR...HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS RESULTING IN A BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING SE THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE VA BORDER AT THE START OF THE FIRST
PERIOD AT 12Z. WILL USE PEAK POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT WITH THIS AREA OF
PRECIP. IT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AS IT EXITS OUT OF THE STATE DURING
THE MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING MOVING IN.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z...AND POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED ADVECTION
OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE REGION SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
SHEAR/WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND NO
SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGERS ALOFT FOR DEEP CONVECTION ARE SEEN. THAT BEING
THE CASE...POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT LOOK TO BE LOW. IF
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT ARE ENOUGH TO GET SOME STORMS
STARTED...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OR HAIL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH...ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT.
HEATING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY. THE NAM AND GFS STILL HAVE NOT COME TO
A CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...BUT BOTH MODELS
SHOW A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR BY LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. IF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR IN THE NORTH LATE IN
THE DAY...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WX. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE JKL AREA HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
MID TERM WILL START OUT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT ISN/T PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE IN STRENGTH...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH KY WILL PUT US IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR
HEIGHTENED LIFT AND INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
TO BE PULLED IN FROM THE GULF.
A COUPLE THINGS TO POINT OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM. FIRST IS THE MODEL
AGREEMENT. AT THIS TIME...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THE INITIAL SET UP AND OVERALL IMPACT. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF QPF IS SOMEWHAT LACKING. THE GFS PINS THE MOST
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...AND COINCIDES WITH THE GEM AND
ECMWF ON THE OVERALL TIMING OF BEST IMPACT. THE NAM ON THE OTHER
HAND BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION MUCH LATER...AND
KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST IMPACTS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
OVERALL PRECIP TOTALS.
THE SECOND THING TO NOTE IS THE TYPE OF CONVECTION. SEVERAL THINGS
SHOULD COME INTO PLAY DURING THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST GFS...THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ALMOST HORIZONTALLY
THROUGH KY STARTING AROUND 6Z. THIS MAKES SENSE...AS THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL LIKELY ENTER THE REGION SEVERAL HOURS SOONER.
HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE...THE
BEST LIFT AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PUSH THROUGH BEFORE THE MAIN
LINE OF PRECIP. EVEN WITHIN ITS OWN MODEL RUN...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
MAIN QPF MOVING TROUGH FROM NW TO SE FROM 0Z TO 12Z...WHILE THE BEST
CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO MOVE THROUGH SOME 6 HOURS SOONER. WITH SOME
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEER AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP...AND AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...THINK THIS WILL BE A TWO PUNCH EVENT.
FIRST...BASED ON THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATE TIMING...EXPECT
THAT SOME MCS/S WILL DEVELOP FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THEN...BEHIND THESE CELLS...WILL BE THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP. WITH
THIS LINE...LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AT LARGE
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT /CONTINUED GOOD LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS OVERALL SPEED SHEER/ AND GOOD
INSTABILITY INDEXES. THIS WILL LIKELY ALL COME TOGETHER IN THE FORM
OF A DERECHO/SQUALL LINE EVENT. GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER...AND DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...QUICK SPIN UPS OF
TORNADOES AND HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WITHIN THE LINE /OR EVEN
INDIVIDUAL MCS/S/ ARE POSSIBILITIES.
ONCE THIS FRONT FINALLY PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR
FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL FILTER DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND
CUT OFF ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ON TO
THE MOISTURE SLIGHTLY LONGER...BUT REGARDLESS ON SOME TIMING
INCONSISTENCIES...EXPECT MOST OF THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY/OR
BECOMING DRY ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TAKE
HOLD...ALLOWING THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S AND SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR. FROM THIS POINT FORWARD WILL
RELY MORE HEAVILY ON THE ALLBLEND...AS MODELS SEEM TO TAKE A GIANT
STEP BACKWARDS FOR CONSISTENCY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND BAND OF MOISTURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NE...THEY HAVE IT TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
FOLLOWING THE SURFACE FRONT...AND MISSING CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY ALL
TOGETHER. THE GEM ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...PULLING MORE PRECIP INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN THIS TRACK BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN COULD MAKE EITHER SOLUTION CORRECT. REGARDLESS...THERE SHOULD
BE LITTLE INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT COULD LEAD TO THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT.
THE NEXT MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS THE REGION ONCE
MORE. SO FAR...MODELS ARE SHOCKINGLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM...WITH TWO WAVES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH...THE FIRST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THEN THE SECOND SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. WITH SUCH AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF FAIRLY HIGH
QPF...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THIS MIGHT BE A SYSTEM TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HYDRO CONCERNS. REGARDLESS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
CLOUD BASES CONTINUE TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS FROM EARLIER
TODAY. OVERALL...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA AND LEAVES MOST OF THE
CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL ABOUT 6Z TO 12Z OR
SO...AND THEN RETREATS NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA 18Z TO 02Z...AND SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND THEN MIGRATE TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA 22Z TO 4Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...MVFR
AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE 5Z TO 13Z. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1245 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING
HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
TOWARD THE OH RIVER AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE
MORE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL. THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE SOME
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN IL AND OH THAT THEY MIGRATE SOUTH
AWAY FROM THE FRONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARD
SUNSET. THE MODELS HAVE THIS CONVECTION DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET.
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POPS FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH FROM LATE AFTERNOON. THESE CHANCE POPS WERE BROUGHT AS
FAR SOUTH AS JKL AND SJS THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT FROM WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT. TIMING OF THIS EVENT AND EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
LATE EVENING WITH A WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. THE
SHEAR APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF BOW OR
MULTIPLE BOW OR LINE SEGMENTS SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGION AND THEN PROPAGATE INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION BY LATE WED
EVENING OR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. SOME LARGE HAIL
AND A STRAY BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS. DISCRETE
CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD
APPEAR MORE PROBABLE MAINLY NORTH OF EAST KY...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW
TRACK AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT TO ITS EAST AND OR SOUTHEAST. MULTIPLE
THREATS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND ALSO IN A WEB
BRIEFING. ATTM...OPTED TO ADD A SEVERE ATTRIBUTE FROM THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS OF THU. ALONG WITH THIS A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ATTRIBUTE FROM THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
THU WERE ADDED TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE ZFP AND HOURLY GRIDS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WITH EXTENSIVE SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR...HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS RESULTING IN A BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING SE THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE VA BORDER AT THE START OF THE FIRST
PERIOD AT 12Z. WILL USE PEAK POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT WITH THIS AREA OF
PRECIP. IT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AS IT EXITS OUT OF THE STATE DURING
THE MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING MOVING IN.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z...AND POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED ADVECTION
OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE REGION SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
SHEAR/WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND NO
SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGERS ALOFT FOR DEEP CONVECTION ARE SEEN. THAT BEING
THE CASE...POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT LOOK TO BE LOW. IF
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT ARE ENOUGH TO GET SOME STORMS
STARTED...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OR HAIL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH...ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT.
HEATING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY. THE NAM AND GFS STILL HAVE NOT COME TO
A CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...BUT BOTH MODELS
SHOW A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR BY LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. IF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR IN THE NORTH LATE IN
THE DAY...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WX. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE JKL AREA HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
MID TERM WILL START OUT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT ISN/T PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE IN STRENGTH...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH KY WILL PUT US IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR
HEIGHTENED LIFT AND INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
TO BE PULLED IN FROM THE GULF.
A COUPLE THINGS TO POINT OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM. FIRST IS THE MODEL
AGREEMENT. AT THIS TIME...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THE INITIAL SET UP AND OVERALL IMPACT. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF QPF IS SOMEWHAT LACKING. THE GFS PINS THE MOST
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...AND COINCIDES WITH THE GEM AND
ECMWF ON THE OVERALL TIMING OF BEST IMPACT. THE NAM ON THE OTHER
HAND BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION MUCH LATER...AND
KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST IMPACTS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
OVERALL PRECIP TOTALS.
THE SECOND THING TO NOTE IS THE TYPE OF CONVECTION. SEVERAL THINGS
SHOULD COME INTO PLAY DURING THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST GFS...THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ALMOST HORIZONTALLY
THROUGH KY STARTING AROUND 6Z. THIS MAKES SENSE...AS THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL LIKELY ENTER THE REGION SEVERAL HOURS SOONER.
HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE...THE
BEST LIFT AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PUSH THROUGH BEFORE THE MAIN
LINE OF PRECIP. EVEN WITHIN ITS OWN MODEL RUN...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
MAIN QPF MOVING TROUGH FROM NW TO SE FROM 0Z TO 12Z...WHILE THE BEST
CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO MOVE THROUGH SOME 6 HOURS SOONER. WITH SOME
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEER AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP...AND AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...THINK THIS WILL BE A TWO PUNCH EVENT.
FIRST...BASED ON THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATE TIMING...EXPECT
THAT SOME MCS/S WILL DEVELOP FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THEN...BEHIND THESE CELLS...WILL BE THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP. WITH
THIS LINE...LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AT LARGE
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT /CONTINUED GOOD LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS OVERALL SPEED SHEER/ AND GOOD
INSTABILITY INDEXES. THIS WILL LIKELY ALL COME TOGETHER IN THE FORM
OF A DERECHO/SQUALL LINE EVENT. GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER...AND DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...QUICK SPIN UPS OF
TORNADOES AND HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WITHIN THE LINE /OR EVEN
INDIVIDUAL MCS/S/ ARE POSSIBILITIES.
ONCE THIS FRONT FINALLY PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR
FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL FILTER DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND
CUT OFF ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ON TO
THE MOISTURE SLIGHTLY LONGER...BUT REGARDLESS ON SOME TIMING
INCONSISTENCIES...EXPECT MOST OF THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY/OR
BECOMING DRY ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TAKE
HOLD...ALLOWING THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S AND SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR. FROM THIS POINT FORWARD WILL
RELY MORE HEAVILY ON THE ALLBLEND...AS MODELS SEEM TO TAKE A GIANT
STEP BACKWARDS FOR CONSISTENCY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND BAND OF MOISTURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NE...THEY HAVE IT TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
FOLLOWING THE SURFACE FRONT...AND MISSING CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY ALL
TOGETHER. THE GEM ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...PULLING MORE PRECIP INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN THIS TRACK BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN COULD MAKE EITHER SOLUTION CORRECT. REGARDLESS...THERE SHOULD
BE LITTLE INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT COULD LEAD TO THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT.
THE NEXT MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS THE REGION ONCE
MORE. SO FAR...MODELS ARE SHOCKINGLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM...WITH TWO WAVES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH...THE FIRST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THEN THE SECOND SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. WITH SUCH AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF FAIRLY HIGH
QPF...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THIS MIGHT BE A SYSTEM TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HYDRO CONCERNS. REGARDLESS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER EXTREME SE KY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THEM WILL EXIT KY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 14Z. CONDITIONS
AT TAF ISSUANCE WERE MOSTLY MVFR AND LOW VFR...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CEILINGS. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WERE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT SHOULD SPREAD EAST THIS MORNING. CLOUD BASES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND MID DAY...AND CEILINGS WILL ALSO BREAK
UP...LEAVING MAINLY VFR LASTING INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY POINT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN A TAF.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
945 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Updated grids and zones to account for the widespread low stratus
deck that covers most of the forecast area. These low clouds will
likely be persistent for much of the day. Latest RUC model soundings
keep at least a shallow saturated layer at kpah all afternoon.
Visible satellite images show low clouds redeveloping in the kmdh
/kmvn areas...where skies briefly cleared. Lowered max temps a
degree or two in response to the increased cloud cover.
Finally...added a 20 percent pop to the remainder of the forecast
area for this afternoon. Abundant moisture and instability and lack
of any cap should result in isolated showers or storms along any
residual outflow boundaries from last nights activity.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A rather tricky scenario at the start of the short term period. Even
with an E-W quasi-stationary frontal boundary just north of our CWA
today, not sure if we will see any convection due to other limiting
factors. Models show no discernible ripples of energy in the mid
levels and time heights/soundings only show decent moisture aob
800mb, ie no deep layer moisture. In addition models show minor H5
height rises today and a weak mid level cap. However, to better
blend with the neighbors and just in case a few storms/showers are
able to develop just south of the front, decided to show small pops
over the northern half of the CWA this afternoon.
Tonight flow aloft pushes a surface low east southeast out of the
central plains toward the region. This will tend to lift the
aforementioned frontal boundary back to the north as a warm front,
but by 12Z Wednesday it may be located near our southwest Indiana
counties, so will keep small chc pops there.
Precipitation chances increase Wednesday and Wednesday night as the
surface low tracks just north of our area and pulls a frontal
boundary toward and into our CWA. A few storms may become severe
Wednesday with large hail and damaging winds being the primary
threats.
On Thursday the frontal boundary continues to push southward
allowing drier high pressure to overspread the region from the
north, therefore will probably see precipitation chances only over
the southern third of our CWA Thursday morning and only over our far
southwest counties Thursday afternoon.
Thursday night as a system develops over the southern plains,
models begin to lift the frontal boundary back to the northeast
and develop overrunning precipitation over the southwest half of
our CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Medium confidence in the extended.
The operational models and ensembles are in fair agreement with
systems and timing but they do have some positioning issues.
The models are in good agreement with an MCS or remnants of an
overnight MCS coming into SEMO Friday morning. This is mainly in
response to a ripple in the 500mb flow...since the front is expected
to be stalled well south of the region. The 00z GFS and ECMWF are in
best agreement with the main effect to remain over SEMO with some
residual convection spreading east over the remainder of the area.
The SREF and SREF hold this activity farther north and keep it a bit
more intense. Typically these overnight MCS`s start to decay as the
sun rises which reflect the GFS/ECMWF solution better. So weighted
that solution more than the other models with this system. Saturday
into Saturday night a warm front lifts north of the area bringing an
increase in rain chances. This also place us in the warm sector
ahead of an approaching cold front. This front pushes south of the
area by 12z Monday which should be the start of a cooler and drier
period early next week.
Adjusted temps and dewpoints down a bit next week after the cold
front passage should it actually occur.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 635 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Abundant low level moisture trapped below the nocturnal inversion
should keep IFR/MVFR cigs at all sites through 14-16Z, then VFR. VCTS
possible at KEVV/KOWB from 18-00Z. Winds will continue out of the
south to southwest aob 10 knots.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MY
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
922 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TRACK ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT...PUSHING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING
OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOPRES IN OH ATTM. A BNDRY EXTENDS EWD FM THERE ACRS CWFA. MESO
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS BEST INSTBY CONFINED JUST S OF CWFA. 00Z RAOBS
BEAR THIS OUT...W/ A EQUAL/MINIMAL CAPE AND CIN FM IAD...WHILE RNK
HAS OVER 2800 J/KG CAPE. THE FEW SHRA THAT DVLPD W/IN CWFA WITH
ANY HGT TO THEM DROPPED AS SOON AS RAFL/DOWNDRAFT DVLPD AND
STRATIFIED. SIMLRLY...COMPLEXES IN WVA HV BEEN
STRATIFYING/CONGEALING AS THEY MOVE EAST.
ROUND ONE...WHICH ACTUALLY STARTED AS TWO CNVCTV COMPLEXES... WL
BE TRAVERSING CWFA THIS EVNG. IT LKLY WL REACH THE BLURDG BEFORE
MIDNGT...AND TO THE BAY ARND 06Z. BASED ON LTST TRENDS...EVEN LTNG
WL BE LMTD-- BEST CHC ACRS THE SRN CWFA.
ITS STILL TBD WHAT WL DVLP W OF THERE. IF ANYTHING DOES...IT WUD
APPEAR AS THO THE SWRN CWFA STANDS THE BEST CHC AT SEEING REMNANTS.
GDNC...18Z NAM IN PARTICULAR...SUGGESTS THAT ALL PCPN WL END AOB
12Z. SOME WRF AND THE LTST HRRR ALSO HINTING AT THAT. ALREADY LWRD
THU POPS ONCE...AND WL LKLY DO THAT YET AGN. CONDS IMPRVG THRU THE
DAY THU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CANADA WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SECONDARY
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION....AND SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHLANDS TO
THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FRIDAY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...ALSO NEAR NORMAL.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE BLUE RIDGE/SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT...BUT
OTHERWISE LITTLE CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ADDING TO THE LIFT AND SUPPORT TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WITH LIMITING CAPPING WILL BE
ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN MARYLAND AND WESTERN VIRGINIA
SUNDAY...THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN OUR WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY THEN OUR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...NEW YORK AND TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
DRAG ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WITH THIS PASSING COLD FRONT.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
MOVE ACROSS VIRGINIA TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHERE THE LOW TRACKS. MORE
LIKELY...THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. FOR
NOW...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
SLIDE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PCPN CROSSING TERMINALS ATTM...BRINGING MVFR AND BRIEF AOB IFR
RESTRICTIONS. HV VSBY RESTRICTIONS LINGERING LONGER THAN THAT IN
TAFS BASED ON EXPECTATION THAT ADDTL SHRA/TSRA WL DVLP. THATS NOT
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST. HWVR...LACK OF STORMS BUT RESIDUAL MSTR
CUD LEAD TO FOG INSTEAD TIL WINDS PICK UP THU MRNG.
WHATEVER RESTRICTIONS RESIDE AT MRNG PUSH WL DSPT...LEAVING VFR
FOR REST OF DAY.
VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NWLY WINDS
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT SHOULD BE
10KT OR LESS.
VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN PART TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AT MRB AND CHO AS THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY ALSO OCCUR AT IAD AND DCA SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOME OF THIS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROPAGATES EASTWARD. MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT...MOVING OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO GUST AROUND 20 KT OVER PARTS OF THE WATERS THURSDAY...THUS THE
SCA IN EFFECT.
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY HIGH
MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY...WHICH COULD SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. NO SCA EXPECTED...AS WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE BAY. IF A WARM LIFTS NORTH TO THE MASON DIXON LINE
BY THIS EVENING...A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD RESULT IN A
FURTHER INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LATEST CBOFS BRINGS ANNAPOLIS JUST
OVER ITS MINOR TIDAL THRESHOLD...BUT CBOFS HAS ALSO BEEN RUNNING
HIGH THUS FAR. IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANOMALIES
INCREASING NEAR 1 FT WHICH IS WHAT IT WOULD TAKE REACH MINOR TIDAL
FLOOD CRITERIA AT ANNAPOLIS. SENSITIVE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECT THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE TO
REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/KCS/KLW
MARINE...BPP/KCS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1013 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MOVING TO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING OVER THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALREADY HAVE SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. PER HRRR GUIDANCE...IT
LOOKS AS IF THESE SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST TO
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT HAD ANY CG LIGHTNING
YET. AS THESE SHOWERS ADVANCE EAST...THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING DOWNSTREAM AFTER THE NOON HOUR AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 80S.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL BEFORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POP MID-LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THIS CONVECTION WOULD MOVE
EAST THROUGH EVENING BUT LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING OF THE
SUN.
BASED ON 12Z KIAD RAOB...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING UP WITH A PW
VALUE AROUND 1.4 IN. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING SUGGESTS SOME
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL BUT STILL ON THE WEAK SIDE.
THEREFORE...AM NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WX. SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED ABOVE COULD HOWEVER BE LOCALLY STRONG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE ACTUAL FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY DISSIPATES AT
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THEREFORE...PUT IN SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
OUT WEST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT
HUMID WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S.
LULL IN PRECIP WEDNESDAY WITH WLY FLOW MIXING DOWN 14-16C 850MB
TEMPS FOR MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA (UPR 80S SW WHERE HIGHEST
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED). THIS WILL PRECONDITION THE AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE XTND PD WL START OFF W/ A BANG AS A FAST MOVG SHORT WV TRACKS
INTO THE MID ATLC. BUFKIT HODOGRAPH PROFILES SHOW A LARGE AMT OF
LO LVL SHEAR...BUT LTL-TO-NO CAPE. THE FAR WRN SXN OF THE FCST
AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLT RISK. THIS WL NEED TO BE WATCHED
DURG DAY/EVE WED - IF LTNG/STRONG UPDRAFTS COME W/ THESE SHOWERS
THE RDR OPERATORS WED EVE WL HV TO BE ON ALERT FOR SVR WX.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE CLRG THE CST BY THU MRNG. DECENT PRES GRAD
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA DURG THE DAY. XPCT THU AFTN WL
BE BRZY W/ HIGHS IN THE U70S/L80S. IT`S INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE RECORD HIGHS FOR ERLY JUN AT IAD ARE ONLY A90 (XCPT 6/1 WHICH
REACHED 95 IN 2011) BUT AT DCA IN 1925 BTWN 6/2 AND 6/6 THE HIGH
TEMPS WERE 97..99..99..100..AND 97! ALL STILL DAILY RECORDS. 1925
ALSO HOLDS 3 RECORDS FOR BALT DURG THAT TIMEFRAME (INCLUDING 101
ON 6/5/25). NO A/C...NO SPL CLOTHES...THAT MUST`VE BEEN VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE TO DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS.
THE HIGH SHOULD BE SETTLING OVR THE MID ATLC THU NGT..BRINGING
SOME PLSNT WX TO THE AREA THRU THE WKND. HIGHS IN LM80S...LOWS IN
THE U50S RISING INTO THE LM60S BY MON MRNG.
THE NEXT PCPN CHC LOOKS TO BE MON AS A CD FNT APRCHS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE HUBS IN THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...16-18Z IAD AND 17-19Z DCA/BWI. BY THAT
TIME...THERE MAY BE ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. EXPECT A LULL AFTER
THIS ACTIVITY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THEN IT/S POSSIBLE ISO TO SCT
TSRA DEVELOPS BY EARLY EVENING.
WEST FLOW OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT BEHIND WEAK COLD
FRONT. LULL IN STORMS WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS SOME MORNING FOG. WED
NGT LOW PRESSURE WL BE PUSHING INTO THE MID ATLC...LKLY BRINGING
RA AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. STORMS THAT MOVE OVR TERMINAL SITES WL
LKLY CAUSE DIMINISHES CIGS/VSBYS. THERE WL BE A LOT OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE LO LVLS WED NGT AS WELL. BRZY CONDS THU THEN PLSNT WX
THU NGT THRU SAT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVR THE MID ALTC.
&&
.MARINE...
S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY. EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING.
TSTMS WL BE PSBL OVR THE WATERS WED NGT. HIGH PRES WL BE BLDG INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO WINDS GUSTS INTO THE 20+ KT
RANGE AND THE NEED FOR AN SCA. THE HIGH WL BUILD OVR THE WATERS
THU NGT LASTING THRU THE WKND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
BPP/BAJ/WOODY!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT NW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS INTO
NW ONTARIO. UPSTREAM...A TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH MONTANA.
AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH PROMINENT
LAKE BREEZES. DIURNAL CU HAD DEVELOP WELL INLAND ALONG THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE DIURNAL CU FADE...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY
MOVE THROUGH THE E HALF OF UPPER MI...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
NAM/GFS 500-300 MB RH FCST. OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN TO 0.35 TO
0.50 INCH. EXPECT MIN READINGS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY AROUND 40 INLAND. SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
FROM WATERSMEET TO IRON RIVER...AMASA AND REPUBLIC MAY SEE READINGS
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND THAT A WEAK SHRTWV MAY MOVE INTO W UPPER MI BY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FAR WEST TO PUSH ML DEWPOINTS INTO
THE LOWER 50S WITH RESULTING MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 400-800 J/KG
RANGE. SO...SOME SOME SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE REST
OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MILD/DRY DAY WITH INLAND TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE LAKE BREEZES KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM IS EXPECTED WITH JUST A COUPLE CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES TRACKS ENE BEFORE GRADUALLY
STALLING OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD...A COUPLE
SUBTLE FEATURES COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
HEATING SUPPORT. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.
THEN...A DECAYING SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...AND WITH RATHER DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO MUCH OF THE
COLUMN...LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. BEST MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 100KT UPPER
JET TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS REACHES THE WESTERN CWA. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A BIT
IN QUESTION AS MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY
LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL ACROSS THE AREA...SO ONLY MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END
TO RAIN AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
WEST HALF SHOULD END UP WITH FAIRLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH PWAT VALUES AS LOW OF 0.3 INCH ACROSS THE WEST
HALF...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWERED TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FROST...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT
TO HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LOWER TEMPS ANY FARTHER ATTM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY AND KEEP
CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO ONLY SOME
INCREASED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THEN...A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOOKS TO BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY. APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRA OVER WRN UPPER MI THU AFTN. THIS
IS REFLECTED AT KIWD WITH VCSH IN THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT ONLY
SLOWLY DRIFTS E ON THU.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
AND GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THU. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SE
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND SAT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SRLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN NRLY WINDS. HIGH PRES WILL AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY. OVERALL...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW 20KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
428 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER NRN ONTARIO AND A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...GUSTY WEST WINDS PREVAILED BEHIND
A DEPARTING 993 MB LOW TO NEAR JAMES BAY. RADAR INDICATED A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
RELATIVELY LOW 800 MB TEMPS NEAR 2C ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE DIURNAL CELLULAR CU AND ANY SPRINKLES
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
WED...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NRN
LAKES AND KEEPS THE ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDAY WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM
SRN IA INTO NRN IL. WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...PROMINENT LAKE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. DEEP MIXING ABOVE 850 MB WILL DROP AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS BELOW 40F WITH RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT AS INLAND HIGH TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AT 00Z THURSDAY THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE STRETCHED FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND WI. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDED FROM
THE MAIN HIGH OVER THE S U.S. UP THROUGH MN AND ONTARIO. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ONE ALTERNATE/WETTEST
SOLUTION IS THE 03/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...WHICH PAINTS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA ALREADY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
LESS WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
CENTRAL AND E MN /AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM/. WILL KEEP THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...BUT ALSO ADD SOME
INLAND W THIRD CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
100-300J/KG CAPE VALUES AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES. PUT IN A QUICK 20
POP...BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT REMAINS DRY.
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE THE RULE THURSDAY...AND PRIMARILY
OFF LAKE MI AND W UPPER MI ON FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPS A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE SHORELINES.
GIVEN THE DRY WEATHER...FIRE CONCERNS WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK INTO
THE WEATHER PICTURE. DOWNGRADED THE ELEVATED BACK TO LIMITED IN THE
EHWO FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL...AND CUT
BACK THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY GIVEN THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
EXPECT THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SETTLE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
W UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SHIFTING E SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TRIALLING MAIN 500MB
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE STACKED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SWING
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE FCST. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIMITED AT THIS TIME...SO KEPT THEM
IN FOR ONLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE MAIN
FRONT...WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
DRIER AIR WILL THEN SWEEP IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGERING FOR THE START OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CMX WITH STRONG WRLY WINDS WILL SUSTAIN SOME
MVFR CIGS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND
MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING CLEARING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO SAT AS SFC HIGH PRES GENERALLY DOMINATES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED VORT
MAX OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/CENTRAL UPPER MI FROM LOW PRES OVER ONTARIO NE
OF THE LAKE. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SCT SHRA ALONG THIS
TROUGH/FRONT AND THERE WAS EVEN AN ISOLD TSRA EARLIER THIS MORNING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE MUCAPES WERE STILL NEAR 500 J/KG.
TODAY...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY MORE TSRA ALONG THE FRONT THIS
MORNING AS THE NCEP RAP MODEL SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY HAS MOVED EAST.
MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE
TIED TO MID-LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN THE
COMMA HEAD OF THE VORT MAX. EXPECT THE BEST CHC OF SHRA TO BE OVER
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO THE NE FCST
LATE THIS MORNING WITH MVMT OF THE VORT MAX AND ITS ASSOC COMMA
HEAD. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT REPORTED AT THE KIWD AWOS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS NEAR
25 KT THROUGH MIXED LAYER AND THE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NE FCST AREA FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS. GOOD
MID-LVL DRYING/CONFLUENCE AND Q-VECT DIVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
VORT MAX SHOULD PUT AN END TO MOST SHRA ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MODELS SNDGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 800 MB
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SCNTRL...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY WHERE A LONGER PD OF SUNSHINE COULD
PUSH READINGS INTO THE LOWER TO EVEN MID 70S.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ON MIN TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S...COOLEST OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR WHERE PWATS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND READINGS
COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND STRADDLING THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND UP TO HUDSON BAY. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
ROTATING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND
LOCATIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM A PARENT HIGH ON THE SOUTHWEST
SHORELINE OF HUDSON BAY WILL STRETCH SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST) WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE (50S TO
MID 60S...COOLEST EAST) WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PRODUCES LIGHT WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS WITH
RESPECT TO NORMAL AND HAVE LOWS OF LOW-MID 40S. WITH THE DRIER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT COULD ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. CURRENT THINKING IS RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS ARE STRONGER...BUT DRYING FROM
RECENT RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND NEAR 25
PERCENT AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL ALSO
BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT GROWTH IF FIRES OCCURRED. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINTS OF A
WEAK AND ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE DRY
RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BUT WILL
SHOW SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT ON THIS
IDEA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.
UPPER RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING EAST ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING. A COUPLE MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKING AT WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED
(GENERALLY WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MN ARROWHEAD)...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON PRECIP OCCURRING ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND
DRIER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...WHICH KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. WHERE THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IS WITH THE COUPLE
SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THAT OCCURS...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM A PARENT LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WILL USE THAT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THEN TREND TOWARDS DRY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CMX WITH STRONG WRLY WINDS WILL SUSTAIN SOME
MVFR CIGS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND
MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING CLEARING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH INCREASED MIXING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WNW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND COULD REACH NEAR 30 KTS OVER SCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO SAT AS SFC HIGH PRES GENERALLY
DOMINATES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED VORT
MAX OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/CENTRAL UPPER MI FROM LOW PRES OVER ONTARIO NE
OF THE LAKE. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SCT SHRA ALONG THIS
TROUGH/FRONT AND THERE WAS EVEN AN ISOLD TSRA EARLIER THIS MORNING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE MUCAPES WERE STILL NEAR 500 J/KG.
TODAY...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY MORE TSRA ALONG THE FRONT THIS
MORNING AS THE NCEP RAP MODEL SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY HAS MOVED EAST.
MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE
TIED TO MID-LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN THE
COMMA HEAD OF THE VORT MAX. EXPECT THE BEST CHC OF SHRA TO BE OVER
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO THE NE FCST
LATE THIS MORNING WITH MVMT OF THE VORT MAX AND ITS ASSOC COMMA
HEAD. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT REPORTED AT THE KIWD AWOS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS NEAR
25 KT THROUGH MIXED LAYER AND THE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NE FCST AREA FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS. GOOD
MID-LVL DRYING/CONFLUENCE AND Q-VECT DIVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
VORT MAX SHOULD PUT AN END TO MOST SHRA ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MODELS SNDGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 800 MB
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SCNTRL...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY WHERE A LONGER PD OF SUNSHINE COULD
PUSH READINGS INTO THE LOWER TO EVEN MID 70S.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ON MIN TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S...COOLEST OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR WHERE PWATS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND READINGS
COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND STRADDLING THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND UP TO HUDSON BAY. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
ROTATING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND
LOCATIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM A PARENT HIGH ON THE SOUTHWEST
SHORELINE OF HUDSON BAY WILL STRETCH SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST) WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE (50S TO
MID 60S...COOLEST EAST) WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PRODUCES LIGHT WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS WITH
RESPECT TO NORMAL AND HAVE LOWS OF LOW-MID 40S. WITH THE DRIER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT COULD ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. CURRENT THINKING IS RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS ARE STRONGER...BUT DRYING FROM
RECENT RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND NEAR 25
PERCENT AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL ALSO
BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT GROWTH IF FIRES OCCURRED. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINTS OF A
WEAK AND ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE DRY
RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BUT WILL
SHOW SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT ON THIS
IDEA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.
UPPER RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING EAST ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING. A COUPLE MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKING AT WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED
(GENERALLY WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MN ARROWHEAD)...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON PRECIP OCCURRING ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND
DRIER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...WHICH KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. WHERE THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IS WITH THE COUPLE
SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THAT OCCURS...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM A PARENT LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WILL USE THAT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THEN TREND TOWARDS DRY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING
SOME SCT LIGHT -SHRA TO THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS
AT KCMX WILL RAISE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL MIXING AND DRYING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KIWD AND KSAW WILL RAISE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. WNW WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY WITH INCREASED MIXING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR KCMX FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH INCREASED MIXING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WNW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND COULD REACH NEAR 30 KTS OVER SCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO SAT AS SFC HIGH PRES GENERALLY
DOMINATES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
521 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED VORT
MAX OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/CENTRAL UPPER MI FROM LOW PRES OVER ONTARIO NE
OF THE LAKE. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SCT SHRA ALONG THIS
TROUGH/FRONT AND THERE WAS EVEN AN ISOLD TSRA EARLIER THIS MORNING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE MUCAPES WERE STILL NEAR 500 J/KG.
TODAY...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY MORE TSRA ALONG THE FRONT THIS
MORNING AS THE NCEP RAP MODEL SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY HAS MOVED EAST.
MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE
TIED TO MID-LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN THE
COMMA HEAD OF THE VORT MAX. EXPECT THE BEST CHC OF SHRA TO BE OVER
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO THE NE FCST
LATE THIS MORNING WITH MVMT OF THE VORT MAX AND ITS ASSOC COMMA
HEAD. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT REPORTED AT THE KIWD AWOS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS NEAR
25 KT THROUGH MIXED LAYER AND THE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NE FCST AREA FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS. GOOD
MID-LVL DRYING/CONFLUENCE AND Q-VECT DIVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
VORT MAX SHOULD PUT AN END TO MOST SHRA ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MODELS SNDGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 800 MB
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SCNTRL...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY WHERE A LONGER PD OF SUNSHINE COULD
PUSH READINGS INTO THE LOWER TO EVEN MID 70S.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ON MIN TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S...COOLEST OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR WHERE PWATS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND READINGS
COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND STRADDLING THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND UP TO HUDSON BAY. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
ROTATING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND
LOCATIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM A PARENT HIGH ON THE SOUTHWEST
SHORELINE OF HUDSON BAY WILL STRETCH SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST) WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE (50S TO
MID 60S...COOLEST EAST) WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PRODUCES LIGHT WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS WITH
RESPECT TO NORMAL AND HAVE LOWS OF LOW-MID 40S. WITH THE DRIER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT COULD ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. CURRENT THINKING IS RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS ARE STRONGER...BUT DRYING FROM
RECENT RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND NEAR 25
PERCENT AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL ALSO
BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT GROWTH IF FIRES OCCURRED. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINTS OF A
WEAK AND ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE DRY
RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BUT WILL
SHOW SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT ON THIS
IDEA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.
UPPER RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING EAST ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING. A COUPLE MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKING AT WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED
(GENERALLY WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MN ARROWHEAD)...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON PRECIP OCCURRING ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND
DRIER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...WHICH KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. WHERE THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IS WITH THE COUPLE
SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THAT OCCURS...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM A PARENT LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WILL USE THAT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THEN TREND TOWARDS DRY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
LINGERING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCMX
AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON
TUE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT ALL SITES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY AT ALL SITES INTO
TUE AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH INCREASED MIXING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WNW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND COULD REACH NEAR 30 KTS OVER SCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO SAT AS SFC HIGH PRES GENERALLY
DOMINATES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
401 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC... A TROUGH EXTENDED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES OVER NE MN. A FRONT EXTENDED
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NRN MN. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS
LIFTING QUICKLY TO THE ENE INTO THE FAR ERN CWA LEAVING SCT/ISOLD
SHRA OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD TSRA OVER NW WI.
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE SCT SHRA
INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FCST MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE
400-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEST AFT 06Z. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
TUESDAY...SCT SHRA IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING AND STRONG DRYING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SHRTWV. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND STRADDLING THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND UP TO HUDSON BAY. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
ROTATING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND
LOCATIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM A PARENT HIGH ON THE SOUTHWEST
SHORELINE OF HUDSON BAY WILL STRETCH SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST) WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE (50S TO
MID 60S...COOLEST EAST) WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PRODUCES LIGHT WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS WITH
RESPECT TO NORMAL AND HAVE LOWS OF LOW-MID 40S. WITH THE DRIER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT COULD ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. CURRENT THINKING IS RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS ARE STRONGER...BUT DRYING FROM
RECENT RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND NEAR 25
PERCENT AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL ALSO
BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT GROWTH IF FIRES OCCURRED. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINTS OF A
WEAK AND ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE DRY
RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BUT WILL
SHOW SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT ON THIS
IDEA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.
UPPER RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING EAST ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING. A COUPLE MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKING AT WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED
(GENERALLY WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MN ARROWHEAD)...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON PRECIP OCCURRING ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND
DRIER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...WHICH KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. WHERE THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IS WITH THE COUPLE
SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THAT OCCURS...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM A PARENT LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WILL USE THAT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THEN TREND TOWARDS DRY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
LINGERING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCMX
AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON
TUE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT ALL SITES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY AT ALL SITES INTO
TUE AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR ANY TSRA
OVER MAINLY THE WRN LAKES. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO THU AS A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY SLOWLY
BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC... A TROUGH EXTENDED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES OVER NE MN. A FRONT EXTENDED
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NRN MN. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS
LIFTING QUICKLY TO THE ENE INTO THE FAR ERN CWA LEAVING SCT/ISOLD
SHRA OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD TSRA OVER NW WI.
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE SCT SHRA
INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FCST MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE
400-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEST AFT 06Z. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
TUESDAY...SCT SHRA IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING AND STRONG DRYING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SHRTWV. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FAR E ON NW FLOW FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE EXITING 500MB LOW JUST W OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
LAKE HURON AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT. A SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION
WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND DIVE ACROSS WI
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR S.
IF THE STRONGER 12Z NAM PANS OUT IT COULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY
OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
CLIPPING MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR NOW...AS THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE MOISTURE ABLE TO
ROUND THE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...AVERAGING ABOUT
6HRS WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AT 18Z THURSDAY
OFF THE GFS AND NAM...WHILE ACROSS MUCH WEAKER AND OVER CENTRAL MN
OFF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TREND FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.
EXPECT GOOD MIXING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 750MB...IN
FACT ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 600MB. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT RH VALUES TO SLOWLY
FALL EACH AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTERIOR W AND FAR E. PW
VALUES OFF THE GFS FALL TO AROUND 0.35-0.4IN OVER THE E HALF OF
UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING /NEAR 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. AS NOTED...FIRE CONCERNS WILL INCREASE BUT WINDS SHOULD
KEEP IT FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.
THE NEXT 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS ALBERTA AND AND SASKATCHEWAN ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR SW FLOW TO RETURN ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE N PLAINS. THE SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA
AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH ND. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS MN THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL INTO CANADA...CLOSER TO THE WRAPPED UP 500MB
LOW. SO WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE BEST CHANCE OFF THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS UPPER
MI. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE A MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND S PLAINS AT
18Z SATURDAY TRACKING NE UP THE SFC TROUGH...BY 12Z SUNDAY THE SFC
LOW COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE S MN/WI BORDER TO IA...TO ILLINOIS.
THAT IS ENOUGH SPREAD TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND
SATURDAY...OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
LINGERING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCMX
AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON
TUE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT ALL SITES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY AT ALL SITES INTO
TUE AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR ANY TSRA
OVER MAINLY THE WRN LAKES. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO THU AS A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY SLOWLY
BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
434 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Significant severe episode well underway although the vast majority
of the CWA is dry and will remain so until around sunset when the
upstream MCS/eventual Derecho presses into northern MO. Northern MO
remains under the highest threat for both severe storms as well as
flooding type rainfall. This due to the location of a nearly
stationary front draped across far northern MO and is depicted by
change in character of the cu field and surface obs. Small cluster
of severe storms tracking along the MO/IA border is being enhanced
by strong 0-6km shear of 50-65kts while the 0-1km shear around 20kts
is likely just not strong enough to support for tornadic activity.
However, these values will increase as evening approaches so any
additional storms which form ahead of the approaching MCS will have
a greater chance to spawn tornadoes. A look at the STJ hodograph for
this evening shows why. Impressive as is the MUCAPES of
3000-4000J/kg.
12Z ECMWF and HRRR appear to have best fit of evolution of the large
MCS and backbuilding convection now underway across northern NE.
Current radar trends and HRRR output surge the MCS southeast through
the north central and northeast CWA this evening while the
backbuilding convection over northern NE slides through northwest MO
and northeast KS with possibilities of reaching the KC Metro after
midnight. Current Flash Flood watch over northern MO looks on track.
Convection will finally exit the eastern CWA during the per-dawn
hours of Wednesday morning. A post-frontal cold front will trail and
eventually sweep through the CWA on Wednesday. The cold air
advection will lag allowing favorable mixing of the elevated warm layer
to mix down resulting in another very warm day. Could see highs
around 90 across the far southern CWA. Will keep slight chance PoPs
across this area as peak heating and some convergence along the
front could form isolated convection.
This front is not expected to move too far south of the CWA with the
very moist and unstable airmass poised to the south of the frontal
boundary. Models embed a number of weak shortwave troughs within
moderately strong westerlies crossing the Central Rockies and Central
Plains Wednesday night through Thursday night. In fact this pattern will
continue into the weekend. Elevated convection is the end result as
these shortwaves lift the unstable air above the boundary and
generate scattered convection. Could see a couple additional rounds of
convection. Temperatures will likely be a tad below average as we`ll
be under easterly flow from high pressure.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A quasi-zonal pattern will remain quite active through the end of
the extended forecast period. A number of shortwave troughs will
translate through the flow and will bring a few chances for heavy
rainfall through the beginning of the weekend. One round of precip will
develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday morning. Another
convective complex will develop Friday and continue into Saturday
with the potential for more heavy rainfall as models forecasting
precipitable water values of 1 to over 2 inches across the general region
With the Gulf wide open, do not see any issues with moisture return
during this period, however, exact timing of these systems still
remains in question.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Isolated pop-up afternoon convection is possible from east central
KS through central MO but the risk of any one cell affecting the
terminals is too low to include in the forecast. Instead will focus
on the greater threat of convection this evening. A large convective
complex forming over eastern NE will track southeast and move across
northern MO this evening. Storms could build to the southwest and
reach into west central MO mid to late evening. VFR cigs will hold
with brief occurrence of MVFR cigs should storms reach KMCI/KMKC.
KSTJ has a much greater chance of seeing storms.
Light south to southeast winds will become gusty this evening as the
low level jet moves into the region. Winds will gradually veer to the
southwest in the morning and then to the northwest with the passage
of a cold front.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning FOR MOZ001>008-
015>017.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...pmm
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
144 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ADD A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS
POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MT THROUGH 02 UTC
/8 PM MDT/. WIND SHEAR WILL STILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO HOW WELL
STORMS GET ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THE 18
UTC GLASGOW SOUNDING AND RECENT SPC...RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS SEEMS
TO SUGGEST JUST ENOUGH SHEAR IN EASTERN MT FOR SOME SEVERE THREAT.
SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS OVER THE
BILLINGS AREA LATE LAST EVENING CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND SUSTAIN
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT OF A LOW- LEVEL JET ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SATELLITE AND RADAR ALSO SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE THIS JET IS A BIT STRONGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS CARTER COUNTY BY SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA WILL EJECT A FEW DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING/SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY. A RETURN SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES. CAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG ACROSS THE WEST TO
1500J/KG ACROSS THE EAST COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONE INHIBITOR IS THAT WIND SHEAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE TODAY. THE HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BY NOON TODAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS
POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE POWDER
RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THAT AREA
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE NEARING AN
INCH.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND A COOL FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE LESS TOMORROW SO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS
ADVERTISING A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO FULL GREENUP AND RECENT RAINFALL.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER REGIME IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LIMITING SOLAR HEATING.
UPSLOPE ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
BEST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA SWINGS THROUGH. SATURDAY STAYS COOL AS
THE UPSLOPE REGIME REMAINS AT THE LOWER LEVELS BUT AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DRY OUT THE WESTERN ZONES.
PATTERN BECOMES DOMINATED BY WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT BETTER MIXING AND HAVE PASSING DISTURBANCES PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIME LATER ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY A DEEPER MORE DYNAMIC WAVE WILL APPROACH BUT TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. STORMS WILL BE MOST INTENSE EAST OF BILLINGS AND SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SOUTHEAST MONTANA THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD SEE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50KT. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 055/078 054/073 049/063 045/067 048/078 051/078
4/T 43/T 22/T 34/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
LVM 075 043/075 042/071 042/063 040/066 043/077 044/077
4/T 43/T 23/T 34/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
HDN 079 052/078 051/075 048/066 046/069 047/079 050/080
4/T 43/T 23/T 33/T 44/T 32/T 22/T
MLS 077 055/079 055/075 048/065 047/068 047/078 051/079
4/T 43/T 32/T 33/T 33/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 071 052/076 052/075 049/062 048/067 045/077 049/079
4/T 43/T 32/T 34/T 55/T 32/T 22/T
BHK 073 052/076 051/073 047/061 045/064 044/072 048/075
4/T 44/T 32/T 44/T 33/T 32/T 22/T
SHR 077 048/076 046/072 044/063 043/063 042/075 046/076
4/T 43/T 23/T 34/T 55/T 32/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 36-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
959 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES OF REAL SIGNIFICANCE WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PREVALENT THIS MORNING
AND THAT RAISES SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING
AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND SO
THAT UNCERTAINTY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MAKE US ALTER OUR IDEAS OF
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT ALSO HAS SUPPORT
FROM RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS...INCLUDING THE 12 UTC HRRR
WHICH TAKES THE WEAK/HIGH-BASED SHOWERS GROWING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MT AT 1545 UTC AND INTENSIFIES THEM INTO SURFACE-BASED STORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THAT SAME HRRR RUN ALSO
HAS OTHER SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WHOLE AREA BETWEEN 19 AND
22 UTC...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF BILLINGS. IT IS IN THAT
SAME AREA FROM MUSSELSHELL OVER TOWARD NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTIES A
BIT STRONGER SHEAR IS SHOWN BY THE 09 UTC SREF THAN EARLIER...WITH
A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN CALIBRATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES THERE.
WE ARE CONTINUING WITH THE IDEA THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE AREA...BUT IT/S POSSIBLE A
POCKET OR TWO OF GREATER CONCENTRATION WITH THAT THREAT WILL OCCUR
WHERE HEATING IS STRONGER AND/OR EFFECTIVE SHEAR RUNS CLOSER TO 30
KT. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS OVER THE
BILLINGS AREA LATE LAST EVENING CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND SUSTAIN
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT OF A LOW- LEVEL JET ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SATELLITE AND RADAR ALSO SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE THIS JET IS A BIT STRONGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS CARTER COUNTY BY SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA WILL EJECT A FEW DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING/SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY. A RETURN SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES. CAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG ACROSS THE WEST TO
1500J/KG ACROSS THE EAST COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONE INHIBITOR IS THAT WIND SHEAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE TODAY. THE HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BY NOON TODAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS
POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE POWDER
RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THAT AREA
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE NEARING AN
INCH.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND A COOL FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE LESS TOMORROW SO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS
ADVERTISING A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO FULL GREENUP AND RECENT RAINFALL.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER REGIME IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LIMITING SOLAR HEATING.
UPSLOPE ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
BEST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA SWINGS THROUGH. SATURDAY STAYS COOL AS
THE UPSLOPE REGIME REMAINS AT THE LOWER LEVELS BUT AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DRY OUT THE WESTERN ZONES.
PATTERN BECOMES DOMINATED BY WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT BETTER MIXING AND HAVE PASSING DISTURBANCES PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIME LATER ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY A DEEPER MORE DYNAMIC WAVE WILL APPROACH BUT TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. STORMS WILL BE MOST INTENSE EAST OF BILLINGS AND SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SOUTHEAST MONTANA THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD SEE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50KT. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 055/078 054/073 049/063 045/067 048/078 051/078
4/T 43/T 22/T 34/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
LVM 075 043/075 042/071 042/063 040/066 043/077 044/077
4/T 43/T 23/T 34/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
HDN 079 052/078 051/075 048/066 046/069 047/079 050/080
4/T 43/T 23/T 33/T 44/T 32/T 22/T
MLS 077 055/079 055/075 048/065 047/068 047/078 051/079
4/T 43/T 32/T 33/T 33/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 071 052/076 052/075 049/062 048/067 045/077 049/079
4/T 43/T 32/T 34/T 55/T 32/T 22/T
BHK 073 052/076 051/073 047/061 045/064 044/072 048/075
4/T 44/T 32/T 44/T 33/T 32/T 22/T
SHR 077 048/076 046/072 044/063 043/063 042/075 046/076
4/T 43/T 23/T 34/T 55/T 32/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
349 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS OVER THE
BILLINGS AREA LATE LAST EVENING CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND SUSTAIN
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT OF A LOW- LEVEL JET ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SATELLITE AND RADAR ALSO SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE THIS JET IS A BIT STRONGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS CARTER COUNTY BY SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA WILL EJECT A FEW DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING/SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY. A RETURN SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES. CAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG ACROSS THE WEST TO
1500J/KG ACROSS THE EAST COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONE INHIBITOR IS THAT WIND SHEAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE TODAY. THE HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BY NOON TODAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS
POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE POWDER
RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THAT AREA
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITAL WATERS WILL BE NEARING AN
INCH.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND A COOL FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE LESS TOMORROW SO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS
ADVERTISING A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO FULL GREENUP AND RECENT RAINFALL.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER REGIME IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LIMITING SOLAR HEATING.
UPSLOPE ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
BEST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA SWINGS THROUGH. SATURDAY STAYS COOL AS
THE UPSLOPE REGIME REMAINS AT THE LOWER LEVELS BUT AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DRY OUT THE WESTERN ZONES.
PATTERN BECOMES DOMINATED BY WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT BETTER MIXING AND HAVE PASSING DISTURBANCES PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIME LATER ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY A DEEPER MORE DYNAMIC WAVE WILL APPROACH BUT TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. STORMS WILL BE MOST INTENSE EAST OF BILLINGS AND SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SOUTHEAST MONTANA THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD SEE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50KT. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 055/078 054/073 049/063 045/067 048/078 051/078
4/T 43/T 22/T 34/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
LVM 075 043/075 042/071 042/063 040/066 043/077 044/077
4/T 43/T 23/T 34/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
HDN 079 052/078 051/075 048/066 046/069 047/079 050/080
4/T 43/T 23/T 33/T 44/T 32/T 22/T
MLS 077 055/079 055/075 048/065 047/068 047/078 051/079
4/T 43/T 32/T 33/T 33/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 071 052/076 052/075 049/062 048/067 045/077 049/079
4/T 43/T 32/T 34/T 55/T 32/T 22/T
BHK 073 052/076 051/073 047/061 045/064 044/072 048/075
4/T 44/T 32/T 44/T 33/T 32/T 22/T
SHR 077 048/076 046/072 044/063 043/063 042/075 046/076
4/T 43/T 23/T 34/T 55/T 32/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
645 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE TSTM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS BRUSHING WRN NEB. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
TRIGGERING THE TSTM COMPLEXES WILL OCCASIONALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS NCNTL NEB HOWEVER THIS
RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
RAIN AND OR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS NEXT
TUESDAY WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A STORMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. NEXT WAVE IS CROSSING THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND FIRING STORMS OUT IN
WYOMING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS EVENING
AS IT DRIFTS EAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONGEAL INTO AN MCS
THAT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA/NEB WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO
USHER IN BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PRECIP WATER AN INCH
TO 1.25 INCHES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1K J/KG WILL BE AIDED
BY THE NOSE OF A 25 KT LL JET TO HELP SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY. ALL IN
ALL THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.
A SECOND WAVE OVER N CENTRAL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA. THE
MCS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IF NOT EXITING INTO KS. BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS LIKELY.
STILL HAVING A COOL AIRMASS AND WITH MORNING CLOUDS...HIGHS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TANDEM UPPER LEVEL COLD POOLS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT
NRN STREAM ENERGY THRU THE HIGH PLAINS. DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF
THESE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE WRN ZONES WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THRU THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL POSITION THE BEST RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND INTO
WYOMING. THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
PROVIDING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
KS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY TABLE SCRAPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WRN
AND NCNTL NEB AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES ARE CONCERNED.
BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
HOLDING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE 60S. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND
OF THE GFS...SREF...NAM AND ECM FOR POPS. THE GEM WAS THE EASTERN
MOST SOLN AND APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLN GIVEN THE PATTERN
FAVORING HIGH PLAINS STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE RAP MODEL GIVES INSIGHT
TO THIS BIAS AS IT IS WEST OF THE NAM SOLN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS MCS
FCST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FCST AREA ACROSS KS AND ERN COLO. THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD KEEP THE FCST AREA GENERALLY COOL
AND STABLE AT THE SFC. SO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS 5 PERCENT OR
LESS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SWRN
NEB WOULD BE THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN WY/ERN COLO AND MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A FAIRLY
DECENT NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NRN NEB SUNDAY. THE GEM
WAS WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS CHANCE OF RAIN. WINDS ALOFT RELATIVE
TO THE INSTABILITY IN THE GFS AND ECM SOLNS APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NEB.
ANOTHER PERHAPS MORE SUBSTANTIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEAR IN THE GFS AND ECM INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KT
AND THE GFS SHOWS THE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER BETWEEN 30 AND 40 WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -10C. THE ECM SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1500J/KG AND
THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...WELL BELOW
YESTERDAYS MEGA-SEVERE EVENT. STILL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY OR FEATURES ISOLATED POPS.
SOME VERY COOL AIR WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA. H700MB TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR 0C ACROSS NRN NEB SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS SUNDAY TO
THE 60S WITH LOW IN THE 40S IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER...HEIGHTS
ALOFT RISE AND MOISTURE RETURNS IN PREPARATION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
644 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF EAST AROUND 30KTS INTO
THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS. AS THE STORMS PROGRESS EAST SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE STORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
RECENT RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN
CONTINUES TO CAUSE RISES TO THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IN COLORADO.
LATEST CALCULATIONS ARE RESULTING IN RISES OF THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TO AROUND BANK FULL EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER AREA WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE PEAK FLOW. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING THE CREST TO ROSCOE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE SOUTH PLATTE AT NORTH PLATTE WILL ALSO BE SEEING A
NOTICEABLE RISE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
219 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
LATEST ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATES THE PRIMARY
DISCERNABLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS SETTING UP FROM NW-SE ALONG A
LINE FROM LOUP CITY-GRAND ISLAND-YORK-BEATRICE. OVER THE LAST 2
HRS...WINDS S OF THIS LINE HAVE VEERED TO AROUND 160. THE CU FIELD
IS BECOME RATHER AGGITATED FROM GRAND ISLAND-HEBRON-BEATRICE.
UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO FORM. WE ARE ALSO SEEING CU BUBBLING
OVER LINCOLN COUNTY. THE HRRR CONTS TO INSIST ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
ALOFT: THE SHORTWAVE TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT
WILL DEPART FOR THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT TROF IS ALREADY MOVING ONTO
THE W COAST AND WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES BY TOMORROW EVENING.
SURFACE: LEE CYCLOGENESIS WAS IN PROGRESS. THIS LOW WILL HEAD E
ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER TONIGHT AND HEAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TOMORROW. IN ITS TAKE...THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY BISECTS NEB WILL
SAG S INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND BECOME STATIONARY. WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN TOMORROW.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: WE EXPECT SEVERAL CLASSIC SUPERCELLS TO
FORM OVER S-CNTRL NEB. GIVEN THE MODERATE-HIGH INSTABILITY...
MLCAPE UP TO 3500 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR...AND SUFFICIENT TO
SIGNIFICANT 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM SRH...HIGH-END SEVERE WX IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE SUPERCELLS.
REMEMBER...THESE STORMS WILL NOT FORM EVERYWHERE. JUST BE AWARE
THAT IF A THUNDERSTORM FORMS IN YOUR VICINITY...HAVE A PLAN FOR
WHERE YOU WILL TAKE SHELTER AND BE READY FOR THREATENING WX.
CONT TO FOLLOW ALL WATCHES/WARNINGS FROM THIS OFFICE REGARDING
SEVERE WX.
TONIGHT: WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR N-CNTRL KS FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. OTHERWISE...TSTMS WILL
EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 10 PM.
WED: QUIET AND DRY. TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH WITH THE WINDS DURING THE MORNING. INITIAL MIXING MAY BRING
DOWN HIGHER WINDS FORENOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
DUE TO THE MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WX THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
FOREGO THE EXTENDED DISC.
OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR COOLER TEMPS...POSSIBLY WITH ONE DAY OF
MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS /10F OR MORE/. SUNDAY HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE
TO REACH 70F.
MULTIPLE LOW CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE "BEST"
CHANCE WILL BE FRI NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT WE HAVE
SEEN SINCE MID MAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THIS AFTERNOON: MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW-END VFR 19Z-20Z AND
THEN WE SHOULD LOSE THE CIGS. ISOLATED IFR TSTMS WILL DEVELOP. NO
GUARANTEES THEY HIT THE TERMINAL. SO THE TAF IS CONSERVATIVE FOR
NOW BUT WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS. SE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTY.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: TSTM THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 02Z-03Z LEAVING VFR. A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU 07Z-09Z AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR
STRATUS CIGS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO NW. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
WED THRU 18Z: MVFR STRATUS SHOULD LAST THRU MOST OF THE MORNING
WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BECOMING VFR AROUND 5K FT 17Z-19Z.
NW WINDS AVERAGE 15 KTS...BUT COULD BE GUSTY 12Z-15Z AS INITIAL
MIXING COMMENCES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1211 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
HAVE SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST UPDATE. FCST TEMP CURVES ARE
RUNNING TOO WARM N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SO TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT 4 HRS. THE WIND FCST IS NOW LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE NOT AWARE OF. HIGH TEMPS OVER N-CNTRL KS MAY ALSO NEED TO BE
LOWERED DEPENDENT UPON THE SWD EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
SATELLITE SUGGESTS MIXING NEAR THE KS-NEB BORDER IS SLOWING AND/OR
ERODING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW. THAT COULD KEEP OUR
TEMP/WIND FCST IN GOOD SHAPE OVER N-CNTRL KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD CERTAINLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NORTHEAST OF A
GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE. LESS FORCING AND A GREATER
CAP SHOULD DECREASE THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS YOU HEAD SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE EVEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD STORMS
FORM...JUST THE LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING THE STORMS TO INITIATE IS
LOWER OVER THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGH END SEVERE WORDING OF DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES ...HAIL OF BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH.
THE BIG QUESTIONS RELATED TO HOW SEVERE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT TODAY
CENTER AROUND WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP...AND HOW ONGOING
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE MORE VOLATILE AFTERNOON STORMS. THE 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND
00Z ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LATE AFTERNOON
WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND ORD TO FULLERTON
OR MAYBE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE WRF
MODELS AND EARLY RUNS OF THE RUC PLACE THE WARM FRONT EVEN FURTHER
NORTH TO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE. THE CONVECTIVE QPF IS
VERY SIMILAR AMONG THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC (MODELS...NAM... GFS...
ECMWF) WHICH FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTHEAST
OF THAT EARLIER MENTIONED GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE.
SOME WRF MODELS KEEP OUR ENTIRE CWA DRY WITH ALL THE CONVECTION
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE WRF MODELS INDICATE AND THUS COULD VERY EASILY
SEE THE WARM FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS MORNING
CONVECTION AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
MODELS.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TODAY BASED ON
ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
MID MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS PROBABLE COULD KEEP THE
WARM FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE MODELS
THAT KEEP THE WARM FRONT OVER OUR NORTHER FORECAST AREA AND MAY ALSO
LEAVE BEHIND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BECOME ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
OVER THE SANDHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS OF 4 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH
AS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6. THESE SOUTHERN STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A CAP AND LESS
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE. THE 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE BY EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 75
KTS RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OF 25 TO 30 KTS IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-
3000 J/KG ALSO SEEM REASONABLE. THE FORCING WILL BE THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDEAL TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO BE WEATHER AWARE
TODAY AND KEEP IN TUNE WITH THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS YOU
GO ABOUT YOUR DAY.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS LEADING TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
TIME. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY EARLIER THAN THAT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRICKY PART
IS GETTING THE TIMING DOWN ON THE WAVES. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE FEW DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. A SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
MODEL DIFFERENCE COMES FOR MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING AN UPPER WAVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE WAVE THAN THE
GFS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THIS AFTERNOON: MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW-END VFR 19Z-20Z AND
THEN WE SHOULD LOSE THE CIGS. ISOLATED IFR TSTMS WILL DEVELOP. NO
GUARANTEES THEY HIT THE TERMINAL. SO THE TAF IS CONSERVATIVE FOR
NOW BUT WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS. SE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTY.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: TSTM THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 02Z-03Z LEAVING VFR. A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU 07Z-09Z AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR
STRATUS CIGS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO NW. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
WED THRU 18Z: MVFR STRATUS SHOULD LAST THRU MOST OF THE MORNING
WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BECOMING VFR AROUND 5K FT 17Z-19Z.
NW WINDS AVERAGE 15 KTS...BUT COULD BE GUSTY 12Z-15Z AS INITIAL
MIXING COMMENCES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1126 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX OUTBREAK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON-EVE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
HAVE SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST UPDATE. FCST TEMP CURVES ARE
RUNNING TOO WARM N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SO TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT 4 HRS. THE WIND FCST IS NOW LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE NOT AWARE OF. HIGH TEMPS OVER N-CNTRL KS MAY ALSO NEED TO BE
LOWERED DEPENDENT UPON THE SWD EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
SATELLITE SUGGESTS MIXING NEAR THE KS-NEB BORDER IS SLOWING AND/OR
ERODING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW. THAT COULD KEEP OUR
TEMP/WIND FCST IN GOOD SHAPE OVER N-CNTRL KS.
&&
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. ALL TSTM ACTIVITY
HAS MOVED E AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE
HWY 6 CORRIDOR AND HEADED FOR THE KS-NEB BORDER. UNSURE HOW FAR S
THAT IT SAGS BUT IT CURRENTLY HAS PRETTY GOOD MOMENTUM. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED...RESULTING
IN VERY LARGE CURVATURE TO LOCAL HODOGRAPHS.
WE HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE SPC AND PLAN TO HAVE THE SRN END OF
THE MDT RISK EXTENDED BACK SWD TO NEAR HWY 6. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER S AS THE SFC LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK E ALONG THE
KS-NEB BORDER. THIS COMPLICATES THE FCST AND LOCATION OF THE
DRYLINE-OUTFLOW TRIPLE PT.
THE 13Z HRRR LOOKS HOW WE THINK THINGS WILL EVOLVE...VERY
THREATENING. 2 TO 4 CLASSIC SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER S-CNTRL
NEB 4-5 PM...THEN POSSIBLE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT 6-8 PM.
AS THE NIGHT SHIFT MENTIONED...EVERYONE WILL NOT SEE SEVERE WX
TODAY. IN FACT...WE MAY ONLY SEE A SMALL NUMBER OF STORMS DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE THE HIGH-END SEVERE WX
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING.
09Z SREF SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SIG TOR PARAMETER WILL ALSO BE EXCESSIVE.
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR IN SUCH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN STRONG MESOCYCLONES. THUS THE REASON FOR THE ENHANCED
RISK OF TORNADOES AND EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD CERTAINLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NORTHEAST OF A
GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE. LESS FORCING AND A GREATER
CAP SHOULD DECREASE THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS YOU HEAD SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE EVEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD STORMS
FORM...JUST THE LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING THE STORMS TO INITIATE IS
LOWER OVER THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGH END SEVERE WORDING OF DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES ...HAIL OF BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH.
THE BIG QUESTIONS RELATED TO HOW SEVERE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT TODAY
CENTER AROUND WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP...AND HOW ONGOING
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE MORE VOLATILE AFTERNOON STORMS. THE 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND
00Z ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LATE AFTERNOON
WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND ORD TO FULLERTON
OR MAYBE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE WRF
MODELS AND EARLY RUNS OF THE RUC PLACE THE WARM FRONT EVEN FURTHER
NORTH TO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE. THE CONVECTIVE QPF IS
VERY SIMILAR AMONG THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC (MODELS...NAM... GFS...
ECMWF) WHICH FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTHEAST
OF THAT EARLIER MENTIONED GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE.
SOME WRF MODELS KEEP OUR ENTIRE CWA DRY WITH ALL THE CONVECTION
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE WRF MODELS INDICATE AND THUS COULD VERY EASILY
SEE THE WARM FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS MORNING
CONVECTION AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
MODELS.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TODAY BASED ON
ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
MID MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS PROBABLE COULD KEEP THE
WARM FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE MODELS
THAT KEEP THE WARM FRONT OVER OUR NORTHER FORECAST AREA AND MAY ALSO
LEAVE BEHIND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BECOME ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
OVER THE SANDHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS OF 4 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH
AS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6. THESE SOUTHERN STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A CAP AND LESS
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE. THE 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE BY EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 75
KTS RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OF 25 TO 30 KTS IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-
3000 J/KG ALSO SEEM REASONABLE. THE FORCING WILL BE THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDEAL TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO BE WEATHER AWARE
TODAY AND KEEP IN TUNE WITH THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS YOU
GO ABOUT YOUR DAY.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS LEADING TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
TIME. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY EARLIER THAN THAT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRICKY PART
IS GETTING THE TIMING DOWN ON THE WAVES. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE FEW DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. A SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
MODEL DIFFERENCE COMES FOR MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING AN UPPER WAVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE WAVE THAN THE
GFS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KGRI
TERMINAL AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT IT AS
VCTS UNTIL THE TIMING IS BETTER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
MESOSCALE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1050 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX OUTBREAK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON-EVE...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. ALL TSTM ACTIVITY
HAS MOVED E AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE
HWY 6 CORRIDOR AND HEADED FOR THE KS-NEB BORDER. UNSURE HOW FAR S
THAT IT SAGS BUT IT CURRENTLY HAS PRETTY GOOD MOMENTUM. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED...RESULTING
IN VERY LARGE CURVATURE TO LOCAL HODOGRAPHS.
WE HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE SPC AND PLAN TO HAVE THE SRN END OF
THE MDT RISK EXTENDED BACK SWD TO NEAR HWY 6. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER S AS THE SFC LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK E ALONG THE
KS-NEB BORDER. THIS COMPLICATES THE FCST AND LOCATION OF THE
DRYLINE-OUTFLOW TRIPLE PT.
THE 13Z HRRR LOOKS HOW WE THINK THINGS WILL EVOLVE...VERY
THREATENING. 2 TO 4 CLASSIC SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER S-CNTRL
NEB 4-5 PM...THEN POSSIBLE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT 6-8 PM.
AS THE NIGHT SHIFT MENTIONED...EVERYONE WILL NOT GOING SEE SEVERE
WX TODAY. IN FACT...WE MAY ONLY SEE A SMALL NUMBER OF STORMS
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE THE HIGH-END
SEVERE WX WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING.
09Z SREF SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SIG TOR PARAMETER WILL ALSO BE EXCESSIVE.
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR IN SUCH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN STRONG MESOCYCLONES. THUS THE REASON FOR THE ENHANCED
RISK OF TORNADOES AND EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD CERTAINLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NORTHEAST OF A
GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE. LESS FORCING AND A GREATER
CAP SHOULD DECREASE THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS YOU HEAD SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE EVEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD STORMS
FORM...JUST THE LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING THE STORMS TO INITIATE IS
LOWER OVER THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGH END SEVERE WORDING OF DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES ...HAIL OF BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH.
THE BIG QUESTIONS RELATED TO HOW SEVERE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT TODAY
CENTER AROUND WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP...AND HOW ONGOING
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE MORE VOLATILE AFTERNOON STORMS. THE 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND
00Z ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LATE AFTERNOON
WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND ORD TO FULLERTON
OR MAYBE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE WRF
MODELS AND EARLY RUNS OF THE RUC PLACE THE WARM FRONT EVEN FURTHER
NORTH TO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE. THE CONVECTIVE QPF IS
VERY SIMILAR AMONG THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC (MODELS...NAM... GFS...
ECMWF) WHICH FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTHEAST
OF THAT EARLIER MENTIONED GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE.
SOME WRF MODELS KEEP OUR ENTIRE CWA DRY WITH ALL THE CONVECTION
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE WRF MODELS INDICATE AND THUS COULD VERY EASILY
SEE THE WARM FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS MORNING
CONVECTION AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
MODELS.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TODAY BASED ON
ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
MID MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS PROBABLE COULD KEEP THE
WARM FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE MODELS
THAT KEEP THE WARM FRONT OVER OUR NORTHER FORECAST AREA AND MAY ALSO
LEAVE BEHIND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BECOME ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
OVER THE SANDHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS OF 4 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH
AS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6. THESE SOUTHERN STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A CAP AND LESS
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE. THE 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE BY EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 75
KTS RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OF 25 TO 30 KTS IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-
3000 J/KG ALSO SEEM REASONABLE. THE FORCING WILL BE THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDEAL TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO BE WEATHER AWARE
TODAY AND KEEP IN TUNE WITH THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS YOU
GO ABOUT YOUR DAY.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS LEADING TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
TIME. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY EARLIER THAN THAT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRICKY PART
IS GETTING THE TIMING DOWN ON THE WAVES. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE FEW DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. A SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
MODEL DIFFERENCE COMES FOR MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING AN UPPER WAVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE WAVE THAN THE
GFS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KGRI
TERMINAL AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT IT AS
VCTS UNTIL THE TIMING IS BETTER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
807 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 807 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE TSTM CLUSTER OVER HOWARD COUNTY IS LOOKING WEAKER THAN AN HR
AGO...WITH 50 DBZ BARELY UP TO 20K FT. RADAR IS SHOWING A
SOUTHWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS BUFFALO AND HALL
COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING S OF I-80 WHERE SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECT INSOLATION/HEATING WILL OCCUR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THRU THE DAY.
PLEASE CONT TO FOLLOW THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...THEIR PUBLIC SVR WX
OUTLOOK AND ANY MESO DISCUSSIONS...AS WELL AS AFD AND HWO UPDATES
AND WATCHES/WARNINGS FROM THIS OFFICE.
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WX
OPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY 4PM-9PM.
PUBLIC: BE WEATHER-AWARE TODAY. HAVE A WAY TO OBTAIN WEATHER INFO
THRU THE DAY. KNOW WHERE YOU WILL GO FOR SHELTER IF THREATENING
WEATHER OCCURS AND YOU ARE NOT HOME. IF TRAVELLING...DO NOT USE
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES FOR SHELTER!
EQUIPMENT: WE HAVE INSTALLED A RADAR UPGRADE THAT WILL GIVE
INTERRUPT OUR NORMAL VOLUME SCANS AND GIVE US A NEW 0.5 DEG SLICE
MID-WAY THRU. THIS WILL HELP WITH SEVERE WX DETECTION.
AS IT STANDS NOW...WE WILL BE WARNING FOR HAIL ON 50 DBZ CORES TO
33K FT ESPECIALLY IF 60 DBZ EXCEEDS 22K AND 65 DBZ EXCEEDS 13K.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD CERTAINLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NORTHEAST OF A
GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE. LESS FORCING AND A GREATER
CAP SHOULD DECREASE THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS YOU HEAD SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE EVEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD STORMS
FORM...JUST THE LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING THE STORMS TO INITIATE IS
LOWER OVER THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGH END SEVERE WORDING OF DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES ...HAIL OF BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH.
THE BIG QUESTIONS RELATED TO HOW SEVERE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT TODAY
CENTER AROUND WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP...AND HOW ONGOING
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE MORE VOLATILE AFTERNOON STORMS. THE 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND
00Z ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LATE AFTERNOON
WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND ORD TO FULLERTON
OR MAYBE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE WRF
MODELS AND EARLY RUNS OF THE RUC PLACE THE WARM FRONT EVEN FURTHER
NORTH TO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE. THE CONVECTIVE QPF IS
VERY SIMILAR AMONG THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC (MODELS...NAM... GFS...
ECMWF) WHICH FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTHEAST
OF THAT EARLIER MENTIONED GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE.
SOME WRF MODELS KEEP OUR ENTIRE CWA DRY WITH ALL THE CONVECTION
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE WRF MODELS INDICATE AND THUS COULD VERY EASILY
SEE THE WARM FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS MORNING
CONVECTION AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
MODELS.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TODAY BASED ON
ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
MID MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS PROBABLE COULD KEEP THE
WARM FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE MODELS
THAT KEEP THE WARM FRONT OVER OUR NORTHER FORECAST AREA AND MAY ALSO
LEAVE BEHIND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BECOME ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
OVER THE SANDHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS OF 4 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH
AS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6. THESE SOUTHERN STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A CAP AND LESS
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE. THE 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE BY EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 75
KTS RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OF 25 TO 30 KTS IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-
3000 J/KG ALSO SEEM REASONABLE. THE FORCING WILL BE THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDEAL TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO BE WEATHER AWARE
TODAY AND KEEP IN TUNE WITH THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS YOU
GO ABOUT YOUR DAY.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS LEADING TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
TIME. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY EARLIER THAN THAT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRICKY PART
IS GETTING THE TIMING DOWN ON THE WAVES. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE FEW DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. A SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
MODEL DIFFERENCE COMES FOR MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING AN UPPER WAVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE WAVE THAN THE
GFS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KGRI
TERMINAL AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT IT AS
VCTS UNTIL THE TIMING IS BETTER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
626 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD CERTAINLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NORTHEAST OF A
GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE. LESS FORCING AND A GREATER
CAP SHOULD DECREASE THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS YOU HEAD SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE EVEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD STORMS
FORM...JUST THE LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING THE STORMS TO INITIATE IS
LOWER OVER THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGH END SEVERE WORDING OF DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES ...HAIL OF BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH.
THE BIG QUESTIONS RELATED TO HOW SEVERE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT TODAY
CENTER AROUND WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP...AND HOW ONGOING
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE MORE VOLATILE AFTERNOON STORMS. THE 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND
00Z ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LATE AFTERNOON
WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND ORD TO FULLERTON
OR MAYBE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE WRF
MODELS AND EARLY RUNS OF THE RUC PLACE THE WARM FRONT EVEN FURTHER
NORTH TO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE. THE CONVECTIVE QPF IS
VERY SIMILAR AMONG THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC (MODELS...NAM... GFS...
ECMWF) WHICH FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTHEAST
OF THAT EARLIER MENTIONED GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE.
SOME WRF MODELS KEEP OUR ENTIRE CWA DRY WITH ALL THE CONVECTION
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE WRF MODELS INDICATE AND THUS COULD VERY EASILY
SEE THE WARM FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS MORNING
CONVECTION AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
MODELS.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TODAY BASED ON
ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
MID MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS PROBABLE COULD KEEP THE
WARM FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE MODELS
THAT KEEP THE WARM FRONT OVER OUR NORTHER FORECAST AREA AND MAY ALSO
LEAVE BEHIND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BECOME ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
OVER THE SANDHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS OF 4 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH
AS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6. THESE SOUTHERN STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A CAP AND LESS
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE. THE 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE BY EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 75
KTS RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OF 25 TO 30 KTS IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-
3000 J/KG ALSO SEEM REASONABLE. THE FORCING WILL BE THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDEAL TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO BE WEATHER AWARE
TODAY AND KEEP IN TUNE WITH THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS YOU
GO ABOUT YOUR DAY.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS LEADING TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
TIME. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY EARLIER THAN THAT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRICKY PART
IS GETTING THE TIMING DOWN ON THE WAVES. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE FEW DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. A SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
MODEL DIFFERENCE COMES FOR MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING AN UPPER WAVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE WAVE THAN THE
GFS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KGRI
TERMINAL AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT IT AS
VCTS UNTIL THE TIMING IS BETTER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
418 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD CERTAINLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NORTHEAST OF A
GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE. LESS FORCING AND A GREATER
CAP SHOULD DECREASE THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS YOU HEAD SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE EVEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD STORMS
FORM...JUST THE LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING THE STORMS TO INITIATE IS
LOWER OVER THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGH END SEVERE WORDING OF DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES ...HAIL OF BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH.
THE BIG QUESTIONS RELATED TO HOW SEVERE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT TODAY
CENTER AROUND WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP...AND HOW ONGOING
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE MORE VOLATILE AFTERNOON STORMS. THE 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND
00Z ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LATE AFTERNOON
WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND ORD TO FULLERTON
OR MAYBE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE WRF
MODELS AND EARLY RUNS OF THE RUC PLACE THE WARM FRONT EVEN FURTHER
NORTH TO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE. THE CONVECTIVE QPF IS
VERY SIMILAR AMONG THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC (MODELS...NAM... GFS...
ECMWF) WHICH FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTHEAST
OF THAT EARLIER MENTIONED GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE.
SOME WRF MODELS KEEP OUR ENTIRE CWA DRY WITH ALL THE CONVECTION
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE WRF MODELS INDICATE AND THUS COULD VERY EASILY
SEE THE WARM FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS MORNING
CONVECTION AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
MODELS.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TODAY BASED ON
ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
MID MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS PROBABLE COULD KEEP THE
WARM FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE MODELS
THAT KEEP THE WARM FRONT OVER OUR NORTHER FORECAST AREA AND MAY ALSO
LEAVE BEHIND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BECOME ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
OVER THE SANDHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS OF 4 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH
AS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6. THESE SOUTHERN STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A CAP AND LESS
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE. THE 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE BY EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 75
KTS RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OF 25 TO 30 KTS IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-
3000 J/KG ALSO SEEM REASONABLE. THE FORCING WILL BE THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDEAL TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO BE WEATHER AWARE
TODAY AND KEEP IN TUNE WITH THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS YOU
GO ABOUT YOUR DAY.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS LEADING TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
TIME. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY EARLIER THAN THAT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRICKY PART
IS GETTING THE TIMING DOWN ON THE WAVES. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE FEW DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. A SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
MODEL DIFFERENCE COMES FOR MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING AN UPPER WAVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE WAVE THAN THE
GFS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KGRI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL KEEP THE VICINITY WORDING IN
THE TAF UNTIL WE CAN BETTER NARROW DOWN THE TIMING. CERTAINLY A
DAY WHERE THOSE WITH AVIATION INTERESTS WILL WANT TO BE PAYING
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION NEAR OR IN KGRI WILL BE FROM 4 TO 8 PM.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1124 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. CONSISTENT STREAM OF HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
HAZARD. LOOK FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KT AT TIMES AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OR
LOWER ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN. SOME OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MIXING
LEADING TO THE STRONG WIND FLOW WILL REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY THE
CIRRUS CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING AWW SPEEDS AT ABQ AT THIS TIME.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO AN
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
TEXAS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD VALUES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE
LATER TODAY...WITH BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST...THEN
REAPPEAR WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BACKS DOWN A BIT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RESULTING IN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SHIFT/INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND LIKELY TEMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN 1-3 DEGREES FROM
UPWARD POTENTIAL. THAT SAID...WE`RE STILL FORECASTING RECORD OR
NEAR-RECORD HIGHS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA TODAY. THE RECORD
HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS EXTEND INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...SO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS GETTING JUICY. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN QPF FROM BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 05Z
HRRR...WITH THE DRYLINE BEING THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION. THE 00Z
NAM12 AND 05Z HRRR SHOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE...BUT WITH A CAPPING
INVERSION. THE NAM ALMOST COMPLETELY ERODES THE CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG THE DRYLINE BETWEEN 21-00Z. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING OUT EAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG
WINDS GUSTS GIVEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES. A FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE 00Z GFS NEAR SANTA ROSA
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH AN INVERTED-V LOOK BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE BEST CLOSER TO THE
TEXAS BORDER...BUT THEN EXPAND WEST TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO ANOTHER BACKDOOR PUSH.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH THE DRYLINE SLOSHING
BACK-AND-FORTH...THEN ANOTHER BACKDOOR PUSH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. VERY WARM AND
UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AS THE FOCUS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. VERY DRY AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY WEST...WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL DETERMINE RED FLAG COVERAGE.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTER BARELY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DESPITE THE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO...COURTESY OF TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
COAST...SATELLITE PW PRODUCTS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY
ATMOSPHERE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MAINTAINING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH AN EXTREME WEST TO EAST CONTRAST...RH RECOVERS WILL BE POOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WESTERN ZONES BUT GOOD ACROSS THE EAST.
A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL INCREASE
GRADIENTS ENOUGH TODAY FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOST AREAS AND ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST.
ACROSS THE WEST...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT SUPER HAINES CONDITIONS THERE INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT THERE. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS WITH MOST AREAS
AFFECTED EXCEPT THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE POOR WEST AND
MOSTLY FAIR EAST WITH GOOD VALUES TO LIMITED TO THE EXTREME EASTERN
PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ON WEDNESDAY USHERING IN MORE DRY AIR BUT
WINDS ALOFT DECREASE A BIT AND EVEN WITH CONTINUED DEEP MIXING IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOST
LOCATIONS. STILL VERY WARM AND DRY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY AFTERNOON. SUPER
HAINES CONDITIONS AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
WEST BY AFTERNOON. RH TO BE SINGLE DIGIT MOST AREAS EXCEPT EXTREME
EAST. HELD OFF ON A RED FLAG WATCH BUT CERTAINLY WEDNESDAY NEEDS TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
MORE OF THE SAME THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND THE
PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS...VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WEST AND MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
BACK DOOR FRONT THUS LIMITING MOISTURE INCREASES EAST. ONCE
AGAIN...ONLY WINDS WILL LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
ALL OTHER INGREDIENTS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE.
THE TROUGH FINALLY MAKES SUFFICIENT PROGRESS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
TO INITIATE VERY MODEST COOLING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A MORE VIGOROUS BACK DOOR FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EAST WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN AND GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. STILL VERY DRY WEST HOWEVER.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101>109.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AND MOST AREAS THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR COULD OCCUR NEAR THE EXTREME EASTERN
BORDER INCLUDING KCAO AROUND 13Z TO 15Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP MOST AREAS THEN INCREASE STEADILY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WINDS WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 25 KT TO 30
KT AND AS HIGH AS 40 KT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. NEAR THE EASTERN
BORDER...SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
FEW CONVECTIVE BUILD UPS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND HIGHLANDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO AN
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
TEXAS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD VALUES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE
LATER TODAY...WITH BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST...THEN
REAPPEAR WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BACKS DOWN A BIT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RESULTING IN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SHIFT/INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND LIKELY TEMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN 1-3 DEGREES FROM
UPWARD POTENTIAL. THAT SAID...WE`RE STILL FORECASTING RECORD OR
NEAR-RECORD HIGHS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA TODAY. THE RECORD
HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS EXTEND INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...SO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS GETTING JUICY. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN QPF FROM BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 05Z
HRRR...WITH THE DRYLINE BEING THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION. THE 00Z
NAM12 AND 05Z HRRR SHOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE...BUT WITH A CAPPING
INVERSION. THE NAM ALMOST COMPLETELY ERODES THE CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG THE DRYLINE BETWEEN 21-00Z. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING OUT EAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG
WINDS GUSTS GIVEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES. A FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE 00Z GFS NEAR SANTA ROSA
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH AN INVERTED-V LOOK BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE BEST CLOSER TO THE
TEXAS BORDER...BUT THEN EXPAND WEST TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO ANOTHER BACKDOOR PUSH.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH THE DRYLINE SLOSHING
BACK-AND-FORTH...THEN ANOTHER BACKDOOR PUSH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. VERY WARM AND
UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AS THE FOCUS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. VERY DRY AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY WEST...WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL DETERMINE RED FLAG COVERAGE.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTER BARELY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DESPITE THE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO...COURTESY OF TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
COAST...SATELLITE PW PRODUCTS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY
ATMOSPHERE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MAINTAINING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH AN EXTREME WEST TO EAST CONTRAST...RH RECOVERS WILL BE POOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WESTERN ZONES BUT GOOD ACROSS THE EAST.
A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL INCREASE
GRADIENTS ENOUGH TODAY FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOST AREAS AND ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST.
ACROSS THE WEST...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT SUPER HAINES CONDITIONS THERE INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT THERE. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS WITH MOST AREAS
AFFECTED EXCEPT THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE POOR WEST AND
MOSTLY FAIR EAST WITH GOOD VALUES TO LIMITED TO THE EXTREME EASTERN
PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ON WEDNESDAY USHERING IN MORE DRY AIR BUT
WINDS ALOFT DECREASE A BIT AND EVEN WITH CONTINUED DEEP MIXING IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOST
LOCATIONS. STILL VERY WARM AND DRY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY AFTERNOON. SUPER
HAINES CONDITIONS AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
WEST BY AFTERNOON. RH TO BE SINGLE DIGIT MOST AREAS EXCEPT EXTREME
EAST. HELD OFF ON A RED FLAG WATCH BUT CERTAINLY WEDNESDAY NEEDS TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
MORE OF THE SAME THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND THE
PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS...VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WEST AND MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
BACK DOOR FRONT THUS LIMITING MOISTURE INCREASES EAST. ONCE
AGAIN...ONLY WINDS WILL LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
ALL OTHER INGREDIENTS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE.
THE TROUGH FINALLY MAKES SUFFICIENT PROGRESS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
TO INITIATE VERY MODEST COOLING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A MORE VIGOROUS BACK DOOR FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EAST WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN AND GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. STILL VERY DRY WEST HOWEVER.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO AN
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
TEXAS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD VALUES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE
LATER TODAY...WITH BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST...THEN
REAPPEAR WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BACKS DOWN A BIT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RESULTING IN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SHIFT/INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND LIKELY TEMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN 1-3 DEGREES FROM
UPWARD POTENTIAL. THAT SAID...WE`RE STILL FORECASTING RECORD OR
NEAR-RECORD HIGHS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA TODAY. THE RECORD
HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS EXTEND INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...SO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS GETTING JUICY. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN QPF FROM BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 05Z
HRRR...WITH THE DRYLINE BEING THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION. THE 00Z
NAM12 AND 05Z HRRR SHOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE...BUT WITH A CAPPING
INVERSION. THE NAM ALMOST COMPLETELY ERODES THE CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG THE DRYLINE BETWEEN 21-00Z. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING OUT EAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG
WINDS GUSTS GIVEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES. A FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE 00Z GFS NEAR SANTA ROSA
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH AN INVERTED-V LOOK BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE BEST CLOSER TO THE
TEXAS BORDER...BUT THEN EXPAND WEST TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO ANOTHER BACKDOOR PUSH.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH THE DRYLINE SLOSHING
BACK-AND-FORTH...THEN ANOTHER BACKDOOR PUSH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. VERY WARM AND
UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AS THE FOCUS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. VERY DRY AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY WEST...WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL DETERMINE RED FLAG COVERAGE.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTER BARELY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DESPITE THE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO...COURTESY OF TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
COAST...SATELLITE PW PRODUCTS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY
ATMOSPHERE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MAINTAINING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH AN EXTREME WEST TO EAST CONTRAST...RH RECOVERS WILL BE POOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WESTERN ZONES BUT GOOD ACROSS THE EAST.
A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL INCREASE
GRADIENTS ENOUGH TODAY FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOST AREAS AND ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST.
ACROSS THE WEST...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT SUPER HAINES CONDITIONS THERE INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT THERE. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS WITH MOST AREAS
AFFECTED EXCEPT THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE POOR WEST AND
MOSTLY FAIR EAST WITH GOOD VALUES TO LIMITED TO THE EXTREME EASTERN
PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ON WEDNESDAY USHERING IN MORE DRY AIR BUT
WINDS ALOFT DECREASE A BIT AND EVEN WITH CONTINUED DEEP MIXING IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOST
LOCATIONS. STILL VERY WARM AND DRY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY AFTERNOON. SUPER
HAINES CONDITIONS AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
WEST BY AFTERNOON. RH TO BE SINGLE DIGIT MOST AREAS EXCEPT EXTREME
EAST. HELD OFF ON A RED FLAG WATCH BUT CERTAINLY WEDNESDAY NEEDS TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
MORE OF THE SAME THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND THE
PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS...VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WEST AND MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
BACK DOOR FRONT THUS LIMITING MOISTURE INCREASES EAST. ONCE
AGAIN...ONLY WINDS WILL LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
ALL OTHER INGREDIENTS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE.
THE TROUGH FINALLY MAKES SUFFICIENT PROGRESS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
TO INITIATE VERY MODEST COOLING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A MORE VIGOROUS BACK DOOR FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EAST WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN AND GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. STILL VERY DRY WEST HOWEVER.
05
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COULD SEE SOME
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS NEAR KCAO BTW 09-13Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. OTHERWISE...CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP TUES. WSW WINDS WITH
GUSTS BTW 25-30KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER 17Z
TUES...WHILE S TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH SIMILAR
GUSTS. WINDS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET TUES...BUT WINDS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTH.
34
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 91 52 92 51 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 87 46 87 46 / 0 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 90 51 90 49 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 89 46 89 46 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 86 44 86 43 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 90 47 90 47 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 91 53 91 52 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 96 51 96 51 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 84 45 84 44 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 90 59 90 59 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 88 57 87 57 / 5 5 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 47 86 46 / 0 0 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 77 46 77 46 / 0 0 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 79 41 80 40 / 0 0 5 0
TAOS............................ 87 48 88 45 / 0 0 5 0
MORA............................ 87 53 86 52 / 5 5 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 94 54 94 53 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 90 58 90 58 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 93 56 93 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 94 65 95 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 97 67 97 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 99 63 99 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 97 65 98 64 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 100 62 100 60 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 96 64 97 63 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 101 67 103 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 91 60 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 92 61 93 61 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 92 53 92 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 91 58 92 58 / 0 0 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 94 63 94 60 / 0 5 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 98 65 98 63 / 0 5 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 91 63 92 61 / 10 10 10 10
CAPULIN......................... 91 58 88 56 / 5 5 5 10
RATON........................... 94 53 92 53 / 0 5 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 95 54 93 54 / 0 5 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 55 90 54 / 5 5 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 96 63 93 61 / 10 10 5 10
ROY............................. 93 61 92 59 / 10 10 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 98 63 97 63 / 10 10 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 97 64 98 63 / 10 10 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 102 68 103 68 / 10 10 5 10
CLOVIS.......................... 96 64 99 66 / 5 5 5 20
PORTALES........................ 97 65 100 67 / 5 5 5 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 97 66 99 67 / 5 5 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 101 69 105 69 / 0 5 5 5
PICACHO......................... 99 65 98 67 / 10 10 5 10
ELK............................. 95 64 96 65 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1126 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT THEN THURSDAY
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL...BUT MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MORE FREQUENT SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 1100 PM...RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THE HRRR AND MOST OTHER MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SHOW THIS AREA LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL NEW YORK
LATE TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAINING OUT OF OUR CWA. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE DRY OUTSIDE OF A SPRINKLE. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
SKIES CLEAR OUT.
THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COOL DAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SETTLE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE STATESIDE BORDER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN
RATHER THICK THROUGH THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
NOSES TOWARD THE REGION. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES NEAR THE UPPER LOW...AND AIDED BY MODEST DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. OVERALL...THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
LOW...WITH ANY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50. TOMORROW
EXPECT A COOL EARLY SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY TIED TO THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BESIDE THIS FEATURE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ENSURE DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
A SLOWLY MODIFYING AIRMASS AND INCREASINGLY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. LIMITED PRESSURE
GRADIENT VIA WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW DAILY LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...CERTAINLY KEEPING IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREAS A TOUCH
COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...GIVING RISE TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. A FRONT TIED TO A SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL ABSORB A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND THEN PASS EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY.
MODELS LOOK TO BE DEEPENING THIS SYSTEM TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE LOW
AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE FLOW...WITH NOTICEABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS. UNSURE AT THIS POINT HOW ALL THIS
WILL PLAY OUT BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD...PROBABLY SOMETIME
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WHERE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE REGION...BUT NARROWING DOWN THE TIME
FRAME AT THIS POINT IS LIMITED.
SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...BUT
THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND UPON ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
DRY THE REGION OUT WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 03Z...CONDITIONS WERE VFR ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AT JHW...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
SKIES CLEAR OUT. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE REPLACED BY A LOWER
CLOUD DECK LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS TOWARD
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL LOWER CEILINGS TO AROUND 3K
FEET...WITH MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN
THE DAY TO THE WEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT TO MODEST
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
901 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY
BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
COOL...BUT MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND MORE FREQUENT SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 900 PM...RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THE HRRR AND SOME OTHER
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS GUIDANCE
KEEPS IT OUT OF OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS...WITH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE DRY OUTSIDE
OF A SPRINKLE. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR OUT.
THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COOL DAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SETTLE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE STATESIDE BORDER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN
RATHER THICK THROUGH THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
NOSES TOWARD THE REGION. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES NEAR THE UPPER LOW...AND AIDED BY MODEST DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. OVERALL...THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
LOW...WITH ANY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50. TOMORROW
EXPECT A COOL EARLY SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY TIED TO THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BESIDE THIS FEATURE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ENSURE DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
A SLOWLY MODIFYING AIRMASS AND INCREASINGLY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. LIMITED PRESSURE
GRADIENT VIA WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW DAILY LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...CERTAINLY KEEPING IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREAS A TOUCH
COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...GIVING RISE TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. A FRONT TIED TO A SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL ABSORB A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND THEN PASS EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY.
MODELS LOOK TO BE DEEPENING THIS SYSTEM TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE LOW
AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE FLOW...WITH NOTICEABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS. UNSURE AT THIS POINT HOW ALL THIS
WILL PLAY OUT BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD...PROBABLY SOMETIME
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WHERE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE REGION...BUT NARROWING DOWN THE TIME
FRAME AT THIS POINT IS LIMITED.
SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...BUT
THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND UPON ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
DRY THE REGION OUT WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE AT 01Z...WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AT
JHW...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR OUT. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE REPLACED BY A LOWER CLOUD DECK LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL
LOWER CEILINGS TO AROUND 3K FEET...WITH MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN
THE DAY TO THE WEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT TO MODEST
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
724 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH JUST A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN TIER. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 700 PM...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A
LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHERN TIER.
RADAR AND HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WILL STAY SOUTH OF A JHW-ELZ
LINE...WITH SHOWERS SOUTH OF THIS LINE THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM W-E. ELSEWHERE SHOULD STAY DRY DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. THE FORECAST
UPDATE REFLECTS A SHARPER CUT-OFF IN RAIN VERSES NO RAIN AND A
SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING BASED ON THE ABOVE TRENDS. THERE MAY BE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR OUT.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK TO NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THE BULK OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.
THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COOL DAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SETTLE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE STATESIDE BORDER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN
RATHER THICK THROUGH THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...AND A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOMORROW
AS MOISTURE DEEPENS FROM THE NORTH. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SPRINKLES WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. WILL HAVE A LOW END CHANCE POP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DEEPEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50. TOMORROW
EXPECT A COOL EARLY SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY TIED TO THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BESIDE THIS FEATURE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ENSURE DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
A SLOWLY MODIFYING AIRMASS AND INCREASINGLY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. LIMITED PRESSURE
GRADIENT VIA WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW DAILY LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...CERTAINLY KEEPING IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREAS A TOUCH
COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...GIVING RISE TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. A FRONT TIED TO A SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL ABSORB A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND THEN PASS EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY.
MODELS LOOK TO BE DEEPENING THIS SYSTEM TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE LOW
AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE FLOW...WITH NOTICEABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS. UNSURE AT THIS POINT HOW ALL THIS
WILL PLAY OUT BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD...PROBABLY SOMETIME
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WHERE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE REGION...BUT NARROWING DOWN THE TIME
FRAME AT THIS POINT IS LIMITED.
SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...BUT
THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND UPON ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
DRY THE REGION OUT WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE AT 23Z...WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CLIP JHW...BUT OTHER SITES SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AT
JHW...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR OUT. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE REPLACED BY A LOWER CLOUD DECK LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL
LOWER CEILINGS TO AROUND 3K FEET...WITH MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN
THE DAY TO THE WEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT TO MODEST
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE CATSKILLS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
AREA IS SANDWICHED IN BTWN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF AXIS ALONG THE
HUDSON VLY AND A CDFNT TO THE WEST OF LK ERIE. THIS HAS LEAD TO A
JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DWPTS IN THE
60S, LEADING TO MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODIFIED 12Z RAOB OUT OF KBUF.
INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS DVLPD JUST AHEAD OF H7 WV AND IS PUSHING
THRU I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE PUSHING
EAST TAKING LKLY POPS WITH IT AND EXITING CWA AFT 22Z. ANOTHER AREA
OF STORMS HAS DVLPD ACRS WRN NY ALONG BNDRY AND LATEST HRRR HAS THIS
ENTERING WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTN, THUS HV MAINTAINED CHC POPS TO
ACCT FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN DVLP.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT WITH MOISTURE DRYING UP
QUICKLY BHND BNDRY. THUS WL KEEP ISOLD SHOWER MENTION IMMEDIATELY
ALONG CDFNT WITH CLRNG SKIES EXPECTED BHND.
DWPTS DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING FROPA, POSSIBLY INTO THE U40S ACRS
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. THIS WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP
DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES FOR THE OVRNGT, THO THEY MAY RUN A DEGREE OR
TWO ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. SKIES WL START OFF
AS MOSTLY SUNNY BUT WL BEGIN TO CLD UP AS NEXT WV HDS IN FM THE
MIDWEST. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 70S DRG THE DAY.
POPS INCREASE FM THE WEST BY 00Z WITH MEASURABLE PCPN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.
RAIN WL MV IN BTWN 00Z AND 03Z THURSDAY AND MAY BCM HVY AT TIMES.
SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST REGARDING HOW HIGH PW VALUES
MAY GET AND WHERE THE INFLOW WL FOCUS (IE WHERE THE LLJ WL LINE UP).
GFS SHUNTS THE LLJ FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE NAM NOSES IT UP INTO
THE SERN ZONES WHEREAS EURO KEEPS IT CONFINED CLOSER TO NY BIGHT. HV
INCLUDED LKLY POPS TO GNRLY SOUTH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND INCLUDED CHC FOR THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-84.
COOLER AIR WL BE PULLED IN ON NRLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. UL TROF WL
SWING THRU THE AREA DRG THE DAY WITH JUST SLGT CHC-CHC SHOWERS AS
UPR LVL COLD POOL ROTATES THRU. QUIET WX CONTS THRU THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FRIDAY MORNING UPPR LVL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS SCENARIO WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SAT WILL BE NICE AND DRY. SAT NIGHT
AN UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE WILL START TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NY SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND LAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE MID LVL THETA-E RIDGE WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING AND THE CHANCE TSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH... BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY. MONDAY NIGHT SFC RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY BEFORE A FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS DECREASING
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND AS WELL. RANGING IN UPPR 40S/LOW
50S SAT MORNING INCREASING TO THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY... PRIOR TO
THE FROPA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON
THAT FIRED UP ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
MVFR CIGS. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
BECOME VFR LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH ON THUNDER... THUS JUST DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING DRIER AIR RESULTING IN CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MVFR CIG DECK MAY FOLLOW
BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FROPA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
PLACE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS.
WED...VFR.
THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.
FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
329 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE CATSKILLS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
AREA IS SANDWICHED IN BTWN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF AXIS ALONG THE
HUDSON VLY AND A CDFNT TO THE WEST OF LK ERIE. THIS HAS LEAD TO A
JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DWPTS IN THE
60S, LEADING TO MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODIFIED 12Z RAOB OUT OF KBUF.
INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS DVLPD JUST AHEAD OF H7 WV AND IS PUSHING
THRU I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE PUSHING
EAST TAKING LKLY POPS WITH IT AND EXITING CWA AFT 22Z. ANOTHER AREA
OF STORMS HAS DVLPD ACRS WRN NY ALONG BNDRY AND LATEST HRRR HAS THIS
ENTERING WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTN, THUS HV MAINTAINED CHC POPS TO
ACCT FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN DVLP.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT WITH MOISTURE DRYING UP
QUICKLY BHND BNDRY. THUS WL KEEP ISOLD SHOWER MENTION IMMEDIATELY
ALONG CDFNT WITH CLRNG SKIES EXPECTED BHND.
DWPTS DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING FROPA, POSSIBLY INTO THE U40S ACRS
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. THIS WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP
DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES FOR THE OVRNGT, THO THEY MAY RUN A DEGREE OR
TWO ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. SKIES WL START OFF
AS MOSTLY SUNNY BUT WL BEGIN TO CLD UP AS NEXT WV HDS IN FM THE
MIDWEST. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 70S DRG THE DAY.
POPS INCREASE FM THE WEST BY 00Z WITH MEASURABLE PCPN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.
RAIN WL MV IN BTWN 00Z AND 03Z THURSDAY AND MAY BCM HVY AT TIMES.
SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST REGARDING HOW HIGH PW VALUES
MAY GET AND WHERE THE INFLOW WL FOCUS (IE WHERE THE LLJ WL LINE UP).
GFS SHUNTS THE LLJ FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE NAM NOSES IT UP INTO
THE SERN ZONES WHEREAS EURO KEEPS IT CONFINED CLOSER TO NY BIGHT. HV
INCLUDED LKLY POPS TO GNRLY SOUTH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND INCLUDED CHC FOR THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-84.
COOLER AIR WL BE PULLED IN ON NRLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. UL TROF WL
SWING THRU THE AREA DRG THE DAY WITH JUST SLGT CHC-CHC SHOWERS AS
UPR LVL COLD POOL ROTATES THRU. QUIET WX CONTS THRU THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD INTO THE RGN ON
FRI...MOVG OFF THE CST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND FOR CNTRL
NY AND NE PA. APRCHNG WMFNT MAY BRING A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA ACRS WRN
ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN. JUST SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG FCST
BASED ON LATEST MDL TRENDS/HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON
THAT FIRED UP ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND IN ITS WAKE WILL BE MVFR
CIGS. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
BECOME VFR LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THUNDER... THUS JUST DECIDED TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR RESULTING IN CONDITIONS REMAINING
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MVFR CIG DECK MAY
FOLLOW BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FROPA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS.
WED...VFR.
THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.
FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
326 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE CATSKILLS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
AREA IS SANDWICHED IN BTWN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF AXIS ALONG THE
HUDSON VLY AND A CDFNT TO THE WEST OF LK ERIE. THIS HAS LEAD TO A
JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DWPTS IN THE
60S, LEADING TO MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODIFIED 12Z RAOB OUT OF KBUF.
INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS DVLPD JUST AHEAD OF H7 WV AND IS PUSHING
THRU I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE PUSHING
EAST TAKING LKLY POPS WITH IT AND EXITING CWA AFT 22Z. ANOTHER AREA
OF STORMS HAS DVLPD ACRS WRN NY ALONG BNDRY AND LATEST HRRR HAS THIS
ENTERING WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTN, THUS HV MAINTAINED CHC POPS TO
ACCT FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN DVLP.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT WITH MOISTURE DRYING UP
QUICKLY BHND BNDRY. THUS WL KEEP ISOLD SHOWER MENTION IMMEDIATELY
ALONG CDFNT WITH CLRNG SKIES EXPECTED BHND.
DWPTS DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING FROPA, POSSIBLY INTO THE U40S ACRS
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. THIS WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP
DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES FOR THE OVRNGT, THO THEY MAY RUN A DEGREE OR
TWO ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. SKIES WL START OFF
AS MOSTLY SUNNY BUT WL BEGIN TO CLD UP AS NEXT WV HDS IN FM THE
MIDWEST. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 70S DRG THE DAY.
POPS INCREASE FM THE WEST BY 00Z WITH MEASURABLE PCPN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.
RAIN WL MV IN BTWN 00Z AND 03Z THURSDAY AND MAY BCM HVY AT TIMES.
SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST REGARDING HOW HIGH PW VALUES
MAY GET AND WHERE THE INFLOW WL FOCUS (IE WHERE THE LLJ WL LINE UP).
GFS SHUNTS THE LLJ FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE NAM NOSES IT UP INTO
THE SERN ZONES WHEREAS EURO KEEPS IT CONFINED CLOSER TO NY BIGHT. HV
INCLUDED LKLY POPS TO GNRLY SOUTH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND INCLUDED CHC FOR THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-84.
COOLER AIR WL BE PULLED IN ON NRLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. UL TROF WL
SWING THRU THE AREA DRG THE DAY WITH JUST SLGT CHC-CHC SHOWERS AS
UPR LVL COLD POOL ROTATES THRU. QUIET WX CONTS THRU THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD INTO THE RGN ON
FRI...MOVG OFF THE CST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND FOR CNTRL
NY AND NE PA. APRCHNG WMFNT MAY BRING A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA ACRS WRN
ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN. JUST SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG FCST
BASED ON LATEST MDL TRENDS/HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON
THAT FIRED UP ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND IN ITS WAKE WILL BE MVFR
CIGS. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
BECOME VFR LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THUNDER... THUS JUST DECIDED TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR RESULTING IN CONDITIONS REMAINING
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MVFR CIG DECK MAY
FOLLOW BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FROPA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS.
WED...VFR.
THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.
FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...RHB
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
152 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...THEN
DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
150 PM UPDATE...
AREA IS SANDWICHED IN BTWN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF AXIS ALONG THE
HUDSON VLY AND A CDFNT TO THE WEST OF LK ERIE. THIS HAS LEAD TO A
JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DWPTS IN THE
60S, LEADING TO MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODIFIED 12Z RAOB OUT OF KBUF.
INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS DVLPD JUST AHEAD OF H7 WV AND IS PUSHING
THRU I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE PUSHING
EAST TAKING LKLY POPS WITH IT AND EXITING CWA AFT 22Z. ANOTHER AREA
OF STORMS HAS DVLPD ACRS WRN NY ALONG BNDRY AND LATEST HRRR HAS THIS
ENTERING WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTN, THUS HV MAINTAINED CHC POPS TO
ACCT FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN DVLP.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT WITH MOISTURE DRYING UP
QUICKLY BHND BNDRY. THUS WL KEEP ISOLD SHOWER MENTION IMMEDIATELY
ALONG CDFNT WITH CLRNG SKIES EXPECTED BHND.
DWPTS DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING FROPA, POSSIBLY INTO THE U40S ACRS
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. THIS WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP
DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES FOR THE OVRNGT, THO THEY MAY RUN A DEGREE OR
TWO ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME NOMINAL POPS FOR
ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT IN THIS
TYPE PATTERN THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OFTEN NOT THE ACTIVE
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH MODEL RH FIELDS AND INDIVIDUAL SOUNDING
FORECASTS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DRYING. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS
TO SPEED UP THE DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT WITH A RAIN FREE DAY EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
THEN...MAIN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE VARYING
DIFFERENCES IN THESE SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO FOCUS MOST OF
ANY RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...HOWEVER THE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS LENDS ITSELF TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW A GRADIENT OF MID-RANGE POPS ACROSS OUR AREA...AS THE NAM
AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A FAIRLY DAMP PERIOD LATER WEDS NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTH AND SUGGESTS THE
SYR-UCA MIGHT EVEN MISS OUT COMPLETELY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
RULE ANYTHING OUT...AND TOO MUCH TO ALSO GO GANGBUSTERS WITH HIGH
POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE`S MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST EVERYWHERE...SO WAITING ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR SO TO
REFINE WHO GETS DRENCHED IS PRUDENT ATTM.
WE SHOULD GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS TO
TAKE HOLD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL 2M TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD INTO THE RGN ON
FRI...MOVG OFF THE CST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND FOR CNTRL
NY AND NE PA. APRCHNG WMFNT MAY BRING A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA ACRS WRN
ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN. JUST SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG FCST
BASED ON LATEST MDL TRENDS/HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON
THAT FIRED UP ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND IN ITS WAKE WILL BE MVFR
CIGS. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
BECOME VFR LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THUNDER... THUS JUST DECIDED TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR RESULTING IN CONDITIONS REMAINING
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MVFR CIG DECK MAY
FOLLOW BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FROPA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS.
WED...VFR.
THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.
FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
151 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...THEN
DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS HV ENTERED INTO WRN ZONES AT THIS TIME AND WITH SLOWER
MVMNT EXPECTED HV DELAYED POPS THRU CWA BY AN HR OR TWO WITH LKLY
POPS NOT MVG INTO I-81 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO 17Z. QUESTION WL BE HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WL BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTN WITH BREAKS
IN CLDS ACRS ERN ZONE WHILE WEST RMNS SOCKED IN. WITH TEMPS
ALREADY INTO THE 80S ACRS NRN ZONES AND DWPTS IN THE MID-60S
APPEARS THAT PLENTY OF CAPE EXISTS ALREADY TO SPARK CONVECTION.
12Z RAOB FM KBUF IS EXTREMELY MOIST WITH PW VALUES OF 1.52 INCHES
AND WARM CLD DEPTHS WELL OVR 10KFT. EXPECT ANONYMOUSLY HIGH PW
VALUES PER TPW IMAGE TO MV INTO CWA DRG THE AFTN HRS AND WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND SMALL CORFIDI VECTORS INTENSE HVY RAINFALL
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR TDA.
LATEST HRRR BRINGS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION INTO WRN CWA BY 16Z
THEN MVG EWRD WITH TIME BISECTING CWA BY 18Z AND THEN EAST FM
THERE. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GTLKS REGION
WILL SWING A PRE-FRONTAL TROF INTO CNY/NEPA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
SYSTEM DYNAMICS WILL BE AT PLAY ALONG THE LEADING TROF TODAY.
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS ABOUT TO ENTER WRN NY AND WRN PA EARLY
THIS MORNING. MODELS...ESPECIALLY SMALLER SCALE MESO MODELS...HAVE
VERY GOOD TIMING TRENDS...AND SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z TODAY. THIS WAS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA TODAY...AS
MID LVL CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIMIT THE NECESSARY SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT ALLOW TIME FOR HEATING IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MARGINAL AND SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. OF
SOMEWHAT GREATER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIAL...AS PWAT
VALUES ARE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND WIND FIELDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
ALOFT. MBE VECTORS ARE ALSO SMALL...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE LESS
THAN IDEAL AND OVERALL SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...SO NOT WORRIED
ABOUT FLASH FLOODING...BUT ANY HEALTHY THUNDERSTORM COULD RAIN
HARD FOR A WHILE. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...WITH
THE IDEA THAT STORMS IN URBAN AREAS WILL GARNER THE MOST
ATTENTION.
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL LIKELY ABLE TO
REACH THE LOW 80S. NOT EXPECTING A SMOOTH TEMPERATURE CURVE TODAY
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAXES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ROCKET AFTER THE RAIN AND CLOUDS PASS LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME NOMINAL POPS FOR
ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT IN THIS
TYPE PATTERN THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OFTEN NOT THE ACTIVE
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH MODEL RH FIELDS AND INDIVIDUAL SOUNDING
FORECASTS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DRYING. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS
TO SPEED UP THE DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT WITH A RAIN FREE DAY EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
THEN...MAIN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE VARYING
DIFFERENCES IN THESE SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO FOCUS MOST OF
ANY RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...HOWEVER THE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS LENDS ITSELF TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW A GRADIENT OF MID-RANGE POPS ACROSS OUR AREA...AS THE NAM
AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A FAIRLY DAMP PERIOD LATER WEDS NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTH AND SUGGESTS THE
SYR-UCA MIGHT EVEN MISS OUT COMPLETELY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
RULE ANYTHING OUT...AND TOO MUCH TO ALSO GO GANGBUSTERS WITH HIGH
POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE`S MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST EVERYWHERE...SO WAITING ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR SO TO
REFINE WHO GETS DRENCHED IS PRUDENT ATTM.
WE SHOULD GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS TO
TAKE HOLD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL 2M TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD INTO THE RGN ON
FRI...MOVG OFF THE CST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND FOR CNTRL
NY AND NE PA. APRCHNG WMFNT MAY BRING A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA ACRS WRN
ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN. JUST SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG FCST
BASED ON LATEST MDL TRENDS/HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON
THAT FIRED UP ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND IN ITS WAKE WILL BE MVFR
CIGS. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
BECOME VFR LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THUNDER... THUS JUST DECIDED TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR RESULTING IN CONDITIONS REMAINING
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MVFR CIG DECK MAY
FOLLOW BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FROPA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS.
WED...VFR.
THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.
FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM,
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THEN A DRYING
TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1236 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE TO SYNC
GRIDDED DATABASE UP TO THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SHOWER BAND WE`VE BEEN WATCHING ALL ORNING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
IS BACK WELL TO THE WEST INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT A SMALL
ROGUE THUNDERSTORM DID FIRE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
JUST NORTH OF RUTLAND. 2 FLASHES OF LIGHTNING WERE DETECTED.
LATEST RAP SHOWS ROUGHLY 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN NY
WHICH IS THE SOURCE FOR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK, SO ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED. WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, HAIL IS ALSO QUITE UNLIKELY.
IT`S STILL LOOKING LIKE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT, AND HAVE
MAINTAINED THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALL THE HI-RES MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. BASICALLY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN THANKS TO SOME INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE BAND WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD,
REACHING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ABOUT 4-5PM AND THEN INTO EASTERN
VERMONT ABOUT 6-8PM.
WITHIN THE BAND, THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST, AND WE
COULD SEE SOME "TRAINING" (SEVERAL CELLS GOING OVER THE SAME
TRACK) AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
THERE IS SOME HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS THE BAND REACHES THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS, WE WILL SEE A FLARE UP IN THE PRECIPITATION
RATES/AMOUNTS FOR A SHORT TIME. LOOKS TO BE A COMBINATION OF SOME
MOUNTAIN BLOCKING AND SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WE COULD SEE SOME EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES SET UP.
AND IF WE ARE TO HAVE ANY HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS, THAT COULD BE
THE AREA.
AS THE BAND MOVES EAST, INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS
EAST OF THE GREENS WE`VE GOT SOME INFLUENCE OF AN ATLANTIC BASED
AIRMASS. RAP GUIDANCE INSTABILITY CHARTS SHOW THIS PRETTY CLEARLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS. LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EASTERN VERMONT
THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT AND THEN POPS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST
DURING EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COLD POOL ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS IN HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY...THEN CHANCE
POPS MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY WITH LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH MOIST AIR AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH/LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
40S/50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S. QUIETER AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN. IT`S LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER GORGEOUS
WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. IN FACT...MEAN 925MB TEMPS NEAR +20C SUNDAY SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD 80S WITH THE VALLEY LOCALES POSSIBLY
PUSHING NEAR 90! UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. GOOD BET FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION AND
THEN SOME BRIEF MVFR AGAIN IN SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS/FOG/BR OVERNIGHT. MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 18Z AT MSS
TO 21Z-01Z AT BTV TO 23Z-03Z AT MPV. THESE WILL LAST A FEW
HOURS...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL LAST
CONSIDERABLY LESS. AFTER MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...A
SECOND ROUND OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LINGERING
THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
SOME LOWER CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
SHOWERS/STORMS AND THIS MAY TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO SLK/BTV/RUT/MPV FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME CLEARING WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/BR TO DEVELOP AT MSS/SLK...BUT 10-20
KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS TOWARDS THE REGION.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT MSS/PBG/BTV.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 10G20KT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS
BY WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 419 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ON THE LAKE
TODAY, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE
STRONGER TODAY AS SURFACE FRONT DRAWS NEAR...AND EXPECT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...AND LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. RADAR BASED WINDS SHOWING WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE IN 25-30KT RANGE WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
FACTOR ON THE LAKE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1047 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE CEILOMETER AT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND (KRUT)-SOUTHERN
VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN OUT OF SERVICE SINCE MAY 29TH AT
0215Z. THUS...THIS SITE IS NOT REPORTING SKY COVER AT THIS TIME.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE
FAA AOCC THAT PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO FIX THE CEILOMETER. THERE IS
NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE CEILOMETER WILL
BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1257 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM,
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THEN A DRYING
TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1236 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE TO SYNC
GRIDDED DATABASE UP TO THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SHOWER BAND WE`VE BEEN WATCHING ALL ORNING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
IS BACK WELL TO THE WEST INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT A SMALL
ROGUE THUNDERSTORM DID FIRE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
JUST NORTH OF RUTLAND. 2 FLASHES OF LIGHTNING WERE DETECTED.
LATEST RAP SHOWS ROUGHLY 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN NY
WHICH IS THE SOURCE FOR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK, SO ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED. WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, HAIL IS ALSO QUITE UNLIKELY.
IT`S STILL LOOKING LIKE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT, AND HAVE
MAINTAINED THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALL THE HI-RES MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. BASICALLY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN THANKS TO SOME INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE BAND WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD,
REACHING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ABOUT 4-5PM AND THEN INTO EASTERN
VERMONT ABOUT 6-8PM.
WITHIN THE BAND, THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST, AND WE
COULD SEE SOME "TRAINING" (SEVERAL CELLS GOING OVER THE SAME
TRACK) AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
THERE IS SOME HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS THE BAND REACHES THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS, WE WILL SEE A FLARE UP IN THE PRECIPITATION
RATES/AMOUNTS FOR A SHORT TIME. LOOKS TO BE A COMBINATION OF SOME
MOUNTAIN BLOCKING AND SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WE COULD SEE SOME EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES SET UP.
AND IF WE ARE TO HAVE ANY HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS, THAT COULD BE
THE AREA.
AS THE BAND MOVES EAST, INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS
EAST OF THE GREENS WE`VE GOT SOME INFLUENCE OF AN ATLANTIC BASED
AIRMASS. RAP GUIDANCE INSTABILITY CHARTS SHOW THIS PRETTY CLEARLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS. LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EASTERN VERMONT
THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT AND THEN POPS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST
DURING EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COLD POOL ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS IN HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY...THEN CHANCE
POPS MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY WITH LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH MOIST AIR AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH/LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
40S/50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S. QUIETER AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN. IT`S LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER GORGEOUS
WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. IN FACT...MEAN 925MB TEMPS NEAR +20C SUNDAY SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD 80S WITH THE VALLEY LOCALES POSSIBLY
PUSHING NEAR 90! UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. GOOD BET FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
SHOULD SEE TSRA ACTIVITY SPARK UP AROUND 15-16Z AT KMSS...PROGRESSING
EASTWARD TO KSLK 17-18Z...KPBG/KBTV 20-21Z AND KRUT/KMPV 22-23Z.
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS AT EACH SITE BEFORE ENDING AND
TRENDING TOWARDS SKC AFTER 07-08Z AT KMSS/KSLK...AND SCT ELSEWHERE.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR BR AT KSLK AFTER 08Z...BUT ENOUGH WIND IN THE LOW
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 00Z SAT...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.
00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 419 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ON THE LAKE
TODAY, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE
STRONGER TODAY AS SURFACE FRONT DRAWS NEAR...AND EXPECT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...AND LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. RADAR BASED WINDS SHOWING WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE IN 25-30KT RANGE WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
FACTOR ON THE LAKE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1047 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE CEILOMETER AT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND (KRUT)-SOUTHERN
VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN OUT OF SERVICE SINCE MAY 29TH AT
0215Z. THUS...THIS SITE IS NOT REPORTING SKY COVER AT THIS TIME.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE
FAA AOCC THAT PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO FIX THE CEILOMETER. THERE IS
NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE CEILOMETER WILL
BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1047 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM,
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THEN A DRYING
TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1047 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AS WELL. DUE TO THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS ACROSS VERMONT TO MORE SUNSHINE
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS DUE TO
THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS. RUC13 MODEL SHOWING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TIL
AROUND 20Z. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA AS PWATS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 729 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO BLEND IN
OBSERVED TEMP/WIND/SKY. PRECIP FORECAST TRACKING WELL. EARLIER
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATED
SOMEWHAT. NEW LIGHT SHOWERS ENTERED ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY COVERED BY
CHC POPS...AND RADAR DEPICTING MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND OVER WESTERN
NY...ON TIME TO GET INTO ST LAWRENCE COUNTY MID DAY.
LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAY TRANSLATING WEST TO EAST ALONG PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. NARROW BAND OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE, AND EXPECT A CORRESPONDINGLY NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN
INCREASING NEAR MIDDAY AS MORE ORGANIZED STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST. POPS GENERALLY TREND WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH AREA OF HIGHER
POPS FOR ANY GIVEN AREA MORE BROAD THAN ACTUAL PRECIP COVERAGE DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. MODEL RADAR BY 21Z SPREAD BETWEEN N/S
LINE PRECIP OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO AS FAR EAST AS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH DECENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 150-200 PERCENT NORMAL AT
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES, WARM CLOUD DEPTH UP TO 10K FT, AND TALL SKINNY
CAPE CHARACTERISTICS. CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KTS AT TIMES
DURING DAY INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING. FOR THE MOST PART THE
ENTIRE LINE SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG...BUT INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD
TRAIN OVER SAME AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS...BUT
DONT EXPECT FLOOD THREAT WITH OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LINE.
TEMPS...ANOTHER WARM DAY ESPECIALLY FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST
WHERE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AREA
WILL HAVE TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE THE PRECIP ARRIVES. 850 AND 925
TEMPS IN THOSE AREAS SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S.
NORTHERN NY WILL BE UNDER MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND SO TEMPS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS. LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EASTERN VERMONT
THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT AND THEN POPS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST
DURING EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COLD POOL ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS IN HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY...THEN CHANCE
POPS MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY WITH LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH MOIST AIR AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH/LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
40S/50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S. QUIETER AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN. IT`S LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER GORGEOUS
WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. IN FACT...MEAN 925MB TEMPS NEAR +20C SUNDAY SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD 80S WITH THE VALLEY LOCALES POSSIBLY
PUSHING NEAR 90! UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. GOOD BET FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
SHOULD SEE TSRA ACTIVITY SPARK UP AROUND 15-16Z AT KMSS...PROGRESSING
EASTWARD TO KSLK 17-18Z...KPBG/KBTV 20-21Z AND KRUT/KMPV 22-23Z.
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS AT EACH SITE BEFORE ENDING AND
TRENDING TOWARDS SKC AFTER 07-08Z AT KMSS/KSLK...AND SCT ELSEWHERE.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR BR AT KSLK AFTER 08Z...BUT ENOUGH WIND IN THE LOW
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 00Z SAT...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.
00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 419 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ON THE LAKE
TODAY, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE
STRONGER TODAY AS SURFACE FRONT DRAWS NEAR...AND EXPECT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...AND LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. RADAR BASED WINDS SHOWING WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE IN 25-30KT RANGE WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
FACTOR ON THE LAKE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1047 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE ASOS (AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM) AT SARANAC LAKE NEW YORK (KSLK) IS MISSING MOST OF ITS
DATA AT THIS TIME. THIS IS DUE TO ELECTRICAL WORK BEING DONE BY
THE FAA AT THIS SITE. THS ASOS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK TO FULL
SERVICE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CEILOMETER AT THE AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS)
AT THE RUTLAND (KRUT)-SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN
OUT OF SERVICE SINCE MAY 29TH AT 0215Z. THUS...THIS SITE IS NOT
REPORTING SKY COVER AT THIS TIME. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BURLINGTON HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE FAA AOCC THAT PARTS ARE ON ORDER
TO FIX THE CEILOMETER. THERE IS NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THE CEILOMETER WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1025 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...THEN
DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS HV ENTERED INTO WRN ZONES AT THIS TIME AND WITH SLOWER
MVMNT EXPECTED HV DELAYED POPS THRU CWA BY AN HR OR TWO WITH LKLY
POPS NOT MVG INTO I-81 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO 17Z. QUESTION WL BE HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WL BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTN WITH BREAKS
IN CLDS ACRS ERN ZONE WHILE WEST RMNS SOCKED IN. WITH TEMPS
ALREADY INTO THE 80S ACRS NRN ZONES AND DWPTS IN THE MID-60S
APPEARS THAT PLENTY OF CAPE EXISTS ALREADY TO SPARK CONVECTION.
12Z RAOB FM KBUF IS EXTREMELY MOIST WITH PW VALUES OF 1.52 INCHES
AND WARM CLD DEPTHS WELL OVR 10KFT. EXPECT ANONYMOUSLY HIGH PW
VALUES PER TPW IMAGE TO MV INTO CWA DRG THE AFTN HRS AND WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND SMALL CORFIDI VECTORS INTENSE HVY RAINFALL
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR TDA.
LATEST HRRR BRINGS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION INTO WRN CWA BY 16Z
THEN MVG EWRD WITH TIME BISECTING CWA BY 18Z AND THEN EAST FM
THERE. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GTLKS REGION
WILL SWING A PRE-FRONTAL TROF INTO CNY/NEPA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
SYSTEM DYNAMICS WILL BE AT PLAY ALONG THE LEADING TROF TODAY.
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS ABOUT TO ENTER WRN NY AND WRN PA EARLY
THIS MORNING. MODELS...ESPECIALLY SMALLER SCALE MESO MODELS...HAVE
VERY GOOD TIMING TRENDS...AND SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z TODAY. THIS WAS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA TODAY...AS
MID LVL CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIMIT THE NECESSARY SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT ALLOW TIME FOR HEATING IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MARGINAL AND SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. OF
SOMEWHAT GREATER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIAL...AS PWAT
VALUES ARE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND WIND FIELDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
ALOFT. MBE VECTORS ARE ALSO SMALL...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE LESS
THAN IDEAL AND OVERALL SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...SO NOT WORRIED
ABOUT FLASH FLOODING...BUT ANY HEALTHY THUNDERSTORM COULD RAIN
HARD FOR A WHILE. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...WITH
THE IDEA THAT STORMS IN URBAN AREAS WILL GARNER THE MOST
ATTENTION.
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL LIKELY ABLE TO
REACH THE LOW 80S. NOT EXPECTING A SMOOTH TEMPERATURE CURVE TODAY
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAXES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ROCKET AFTER THE RAIN AND CLOUDS PASS LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME NOMINAL POPS FOR
ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT IN THIS
TYPE PATTERN THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OFTEN NOT THE ACTIVE
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH MODEL RH FIELDS AND INDIVIDUAL SOUNDING
FORECASTS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DRYING. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS
TO SPEED UP THE DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT WITH A RAIN FREE DAY EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
THEN...MAIN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE VARYING
DIFFERENCES IN THESE SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO FOCUS MOST OF
ANY RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...HOWEVER THE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS LENDS ITSELF TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW A GRADIENT OF MID-RANGE POPS ACROSS OUR AREA...AS THE NAM
AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A FAIRLY DAMP PERIOD LATER WEDS NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTH AND SUGGESTS THE
SYR-UCA MIGHT EVEN MISS OUT COMPLETELY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
RULE ANYTHING OUT...AND TOO MUCH TO ALSO GO GANGBUSTERS WITH HIGH
POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE`S MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST EVERYWHERE...SO WAITING ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR SO TO
REFINE WHO GETS DRENCHED IS PRUDENT ATTM.
WE SHOULD GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS TO
TAKE HOLD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL 2M TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD INTO THE RGN ON
FRI...MOVG OFF THE CST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND FOR CNTRL
NY AND NE PA. APRCHNG WMFNT MAY BRING A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA ACRS WRN
ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN. JUST SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG FCST
BASED ON LATEST MDL TRENDS/HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MRNG WITH XCPTN OF ELM WHERE MVFR
BR IS OCCURRING BUT WILL IMPRV TO VFR BY 14Z. OTRW...XPCT A BKN
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO CROSS THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRE-FNTL TROF. ATTM WE ARE TIMING THE BEST CHCS FOR
SHRA/TSRA FROM 16-18Z WRN SITES ( SYR/ITH/ELM) TO 18-20Z ACRS THE
EAST (AVP). THERE IS POTNL ISOLD TSRA LATE TDA AS A CDFNT APRCHS BUT
FOR NOW WE JUST SELECTED THE MOST FVRBL TIME FRAME FOR PCPN. ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT/DSPT BY THIS EVNG WHEN WE XPCT
VFR. LATER TNGT A FEW MDL PROFILES SHOW DVLPMNT OF STRATUS LAYER
BEHIND THE CDFNT ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER (ITH/ELM/BGM). NOT
CONFIDENT OF THIS BUT DID INDICATE A SCT025 LAYER ARND THIS TIME.
WINDS BECMG SWLY TDA 10-15 KTS...AND W TO NW 5 KTS OR SO TNGT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS.
WED...VFR.
THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.
FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
141 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOLLOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE, DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. UPDATED THE
GRIDS TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS DIRECTLY
UPSTREAM, THEN TAPERED THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR HOUR #3 INTO ONEIDA
COUNTY, AS WE ANTICIPATE WEAKENING.
NOT MUCH SUPPORT REMAINING FOR CONVECTION DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL ADVANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SW FLOW HAS WRMD THE AREA NICELY THIS AFTN AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
TOCH 90F ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN NEAR SYR. SOME CONV HAS DVLPD OVER
XTRM WRN NY ALONG THE FRICTIONAL CONV BNDRY SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND
ARE MVG NE ATTM. OTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL ARM WEAKEN THE CONV AS IT
MVES EAST AND HAS LTL IN THE WAY OF SHWRS OVRNGT. NAM HOLDS CONV
TOGETHER BETTER AND HAS SOME WEAKENING CONV THRU MUCH OF THE NRN
THIRD OF THE AREA...LOW RESOLUTION GFS KIND SMEARS THE DEPICTION
OF THE CONV WHILE THE EURO GNRLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY.
WITH THE CONV ALREADY FIRING...DESPITE THE MODLE CONSENSUS HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...PRIMARILY OF THE NRN ZONES
TNGT IN CASE SOME OF THE CONV HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DRIFTS EAST AS
THE NAM SHOWS.
OTRW...A QUIET NGT WITH MODERATE TEMPS AND WINDS AHD OF THE APRCHG
FNTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS USUAL...NOT A CLR CUT FNTL PASSAGE WITH THE MODELS
CONCENTRATING MUCH OF THE CONV TMRW ALONG A PRE FNTL TROF PASSING
THRU THE AREA BEFORE 18Z. NAM IS ONCE AGAIN AN OUTLIER WITH A
SECOND LINE OF CONV DVLPG ALONG THE COLD FNT LTR IN THE DAY AND IN
THE EARLY EVE. NAM FCSTD SNDGS ARE INDEED QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES BETTER THAN 1500 J/KG. GFS AND EURO DO ALSO SHOW SOME AFNT
CONV AS THE UPR WV AND SFC FNT APRCHS...SO HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
THE LIKELY POPS WHERE THERE/S THE BEST CHANCE PCPN EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH THE TROF...BUT WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS THRU THE AFTN AND
INTO PART OF THE EVE TO CVR THE POSSIBILTY OF A SECOND ROUND OF
CONV.
NEXT WX SYSTEM ARRIVES THUR AND WHILE THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EURO AND
GFS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THE NAM OFFERS A MUCH DFRNT
SOLN. EURO/GFS SOLN KEEP AND OPEN WV ACROSS THE LAKES AND PUSH A
WEAKER CLSD SFC LOW ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WED...
CONCENTRATING SHWRS AND TSTMS ALONG THE OLD SFC OVER PA. NAM
CLOSES OFF THE UPR LOW AND WRAPS UP A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM OVER
THE SRN LAKES BRINGING THE CONV FURTHER NORTH. WILL LEAN TWRD THE
LESS DRAMATIC GFS/EURO AND KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA...HIER
IN THE SOUTH...FOR THE END OF THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO DRY AND MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EXPECT WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FOR ALL INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BEAUTY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN WARMER
VALUES ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
BEYOND THIS...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST. FOR NOW...HAVE ADVERTISED CHC POPS BEGINNING MONDAY WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE STAGES OF NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT COOLER YET SEASONABLE TEMPS /LOW TO MID
70S/ THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MRNG...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE
SOME 5SM BR TWDS DAYBREAK. OTRW...XPCT A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO
CROSS THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FNTL TROF.
ATTM WE ARE TIMING THE BEST CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM 16-18Z WRN
SITES ( SYR/ITH/ELM) TO 18-20Z ACRS THE EAST (AVP). THERE IS
POTNL FOR SCT SHRA EARLY THIS MRNG AND PSBLY LATE TDA AS A CDFNT
APRCHS BUT FOR NOW WE JUST SELECTED THE MOST FVRBL TIME FRAME FOR
PCPN. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT/DSPT BY THIS EVNG. XPCT
PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVNG...SOME MDLS PROFILES SHOW DVLPMNT OF
STRATUS LAYER AT A FEW SITES BUT GNRLY AFTER 06Z. WINDS THIS MRNG
LIGHT AND GNRLY SRLY OR SWLY...BECMG SWLY 10-15 KTS THIS MRNG...AND W
TO NW 5 KTS OR SO TNGT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS.
WED...VFR.
THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.
FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1147 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH VERY WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM WEDNESDAY...STILL SOME TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE POPS FOR
THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF THU. THIS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST UPSTREAM...1 TO 2 CWA LENGTHS AWAY...
AND BLENDING IN THE AVAILABLE 00Z MODEL DATA. SUBSIDENCE STILL
KEEPING CONVECTION AT BAY ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT...WEAK
DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCC/MCS WILL PUSH TO AND
PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FA DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE PRE-DAWN
THU HOURS. WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING THE FA FROM THE
NW...THE REMNANT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND OUTFLOWS FROM
CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM...THE COMBINED SFC FEATURES WITH
DYNAMICS ALOFT...ALBEIT WEAK...WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
POSSIBLE TSTRM ACTIVITY PRIOR TO SUNRISE THU. LATEST MODEL SREF
RUNS CONFIRM THIS PROBABILITY...WITH LATEST HRRR SHOWING EVEN SFC
BASED INSTABILITY AVBL TO FEED THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION DURING THE
PRE-DAWN THU HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LIKELY OBSERVE WIDESPREAD
70 DEGREE LOWS WITH ONLY ISOLATED UPPER 60S PER LATEST AVBL MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE. SW WINDS TO REMAIN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PREVENTING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE DROP OFF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CAROLINAS ARE CAUGHT BETWEEN A
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOT
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE PUSHED
TEMPS INTO THE 90S INLAND FROM THE BEACHES TODAY. DESPITE A GOOD
DEAL OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED TO DEEP
CONVECTION BY A LAYER OF WARM DRY AIR BETWEEN 825 MB (THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER) AND 700 MB. THIS IS WHERE THE CUMULUS STARTS TO
LOOK RAGGED. CHANCES FOR A DAYTIME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ARE
PRETTY SMALL AS A RESULT.
THIS EVENING A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL REACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS IS THE REMNANT OF LAST
NIGHT`S POWERFUL MCS ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI...BUT WILL HAVE AN
UPHILL BATTLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
CLOUDINESS HERE. THIS IS DUE TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
850-500 MB LAYER. THIS LAYER IS SHOWN BY ALL 12Z MODELS TO GRADUALLY
MOISTEN OVERNIGHT VIA WESTERLY WINDS FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF A LATE
NIGHT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FLORENCE TO WHITEVILLE TO WILMINGTON. THESE PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.
WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT (AT LEAST 25 KT
AT 1000 FT AGL) AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS CLOUD COVER LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY WARM...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO
THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. THIS IS 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
WOULD BE TYPICAL FOR MID JULY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...H5 SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED OVER TX AND
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DIRECT HARD-TO-TIME...GENERALLY
WEAK... IMPULSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY THU. THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION
WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENTLY SPC
DEPICTS SMALL PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THU. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR LATER THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE...WITH LESS AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT THU...AND WITH THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH INTO SC FRI RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC ZONES). CUT BACK ON MAX TEMPERATURES BY A
CATEGORY OR TWO FOR THU WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT THUS FRI/S HIGHS ONLY A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN THU. OTHERWISE...BREEZY S-SW WINDS THURSDAY
GIVEN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...BEFORE WARM BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WAVERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
WHILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY SINCE IT GETS IMPEDED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE ELONGATED EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE SC ZONES. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND FORECAST PROFILES ARE UNANIMOUS IN DROPPING PWATS BELOW
1 INCH WITH LITTLE-TO-NO SATURATED LAYERS WITHIN THE COLUMN. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL DROP POP TO
SILENT SINCE COVERAGE OF 0.01 QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANYTHING.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE AROUND TO RIGHT ABOVE CLIMO...MID/UPR
80S FOR HIGHS AND MID/UPR 60S FOR LOWS.
MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY FLAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING TSTM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTN...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AIDED BY A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH AT
THE SAME TIME THAT 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CLIMB ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE IT TO THE
LOCAL AREA. FOR THIS REASON WILL SHOW CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH CHC POP EACH DAY FOR
DIURNAL TSTMS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AFTER 18-19Z WHEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...CAPABLE OF REDUCING VSBYS/CIGS TO SUB
VFR LEVELS.
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 5-6KFT CU DISSIPATING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING SE...BUT WELL N OF KILM. A MID-LEVEL
INVERSION AND DRY AIR ALOFT LIMIT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INHIBIT ANY
CONVECTION THAT MAY TRY TO DEVELOP OR MOVE SE INTO THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT AS THIS LAYER MOISTENS THERE COULD BE AN
INCREASE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NW OF A
KFLO-KILM LINE. WINDS WILL BE SW 5-12 KTS LIGHTEST AT THE KFLO/KLBT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SW AFTER DAYBREAK...BECOMING GUSTY
15-20 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS MID-MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY
PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED AROUND 18Z. THIS COULD BE EVEN
LATER IF MORNING CLOUDS DO NOT THIN AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED.
WILL INDICATE VCTS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LOW COVERAGE.
FAVORED AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AND ALONG A PIEDMONT TROUGH KFLO/KLBT. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF VCTS LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG A COLD FRONT N OF KLBT/KILM AND MOVE SE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES WITH THE
FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG ACROSS THE ILM LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO
RESULT IN A 210-240 DEGREE RANGE FOR WIND DIRECTIONS. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT WITH 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. LATEST 41110 BUOY HAS
INDICATED A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT RISE IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS...TO 3 TO 4
FT...SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST OMR...OTHER MARINE
REPORTS...INDICATE VERY ACTIVE 10-20 KT WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING. WITH ALL THIS SAID...HAVE
RECONFIGURED THE START TIME OF THE SCA TO AN EARLIER TIME...600
AM EDT THURSDAY. MWW AND HWO HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE LIES ALONG 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AS FAR WEST AS THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. A WEST-SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WIND NORTH OF THIS
RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE CAROLINAS. TYPICALLY THIS PATTERN YIELDS
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS PLUS WHATEVER SEABREEZE CIRCULATION
MAY EXIST. HOWEVER IN THIS CASE WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS LOW WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF EASTERLY 11-12
SECOND SWELL. LOOK FOR SEAS TO BUILD BY 1-2 FEET OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THURSDAY IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE SC WATERS DURING
FRIDAY PRIOR TO STALLING. THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS FROM SURF CITY TO SOUTH SANTEE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE WATERS
DURING SATURDAY...CREATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF E/NE WINDS THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT AT SPEEDS ONLY AROUND 10 KTS. LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SE AND THEN
SOUTH...BUT STILL WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. ALTHOUGH A 9 SEC
EASTERLY SWELL WILL EXIST IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE PRIMARILY FORMED THROUGH A 4-5 SEC
WIND CHOP FROM THE EAST...BECOMING SOUTH ON MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...REGARDLESS OF PRIMARY WAVE
DIRECTION.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
317 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...WITH
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
GEORGIA LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC...THEN OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER GEORGETOWN AND
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES THOUGH IT IS DOUBTFUL BASED ON RADAR RETURNS
THAT ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED. MORNING
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 6.5 KFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO CU AND THE ODD -SHRA.
PATTERN CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO THAT OF A MORE TYPICAL
EARLY-SUMMER REGIME...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFFSHORE AND A
STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW QUITE
SEASONAL AND WILL HOLD IN THE MID 80S MOST PLACES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES.
MUCH OF THE PRESENT CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CIRRUS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. GUIDANCE HINTED THAT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONSIDER CHANCES TOO LOW
TO MENTION AND WILL KEEP A DRY OVERNIGHT IN THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE IN VERY CLOSE ACCORD FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WITH
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE GEORGIA
AND FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ALONG
30 DEGREES LATITUDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WITH HUMID SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. A HOT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHILE A COLD LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM QUEBEC INTO
MAINE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL BE A
CHANNEL OF WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WITH AT LEAST TWO WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY CAPPED AIRMASS WITH CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE INSUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CONSIDERABLE PRECIP
COVERAGE. A SECOND STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
CAROLINA. SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALLER CONVECTIVE CAP THURSDAY ALONG
WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE RISING TO 1500-2000 J/KG. ADD IN A FASTER
FLOW ALOFT (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BUILDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS) AND THERE
ARE SOME INTRIGUING HINTS STORM CELL ORGANIZATION COULD PROMOTE
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF LARGE
ENOUGH COLD POOLS CAN ORGANIZE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. THE HIGHEST FORECAST POPS ARE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...60 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TO
40-50 PERCENT ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ONCE AGAIN...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL EXIST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
DURING THE PERIOD. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTER OF THE TWO
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES OVERHEAD THE FRONT IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. MID-LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY PRETTY RAPIDLY FRIDAY...SO DO
NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSTMS...BUT A GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OF
HIGH CHC TO SCHC IS WARRANTED.
MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS INTO THE WKND AS THE GFS KEEPS THAT FRONT IN
THE VICINITY AND CONTINUES DECENT POP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF
DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH AND WASHES IT OUT...IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BULGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH A DECENT IMPULSE PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...SUPPORT THE DRIER ECMWF...AND
WILL SHOW ONLY SCHC THROUGH THE WKND FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
RISE...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...AND
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON/TUE WITH INCREASING TSTM CHANCES EACH
DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN 4-6KFT CU BEING REPORTED IN THE SFC
OBS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL BECOME S-SW 10-15 KTS AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING THICKENING CIRRUS LATER TODAY...BUT THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW NO PCPN FOR OUR AREA. GIVEN THE INVERSION DEPICTED AROUND 800MB
IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN IN THESE TAFS. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MVFR VSBYS INLAND IF THE WINDS TOTALLY DROP OUT. HAVE ADDED TEMPO
MVFR FOR KLBT AS THIS SITE IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE NEARLY CALM WINDS
BEFORE DAYBREAK. VFR WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS 5-8
KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SLIPS OFFSHORE. IN
GENERAL...WE WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 15 KT RANGE WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL RUN A BIT HIGHER AND MORE GUSTY DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE GEORGIA
AND FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ALONG 30
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN A VERY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS OR MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
COMPRESS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS NEARSHORE WITH
THURSDAY`S SEABREEZE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD...REACHING 4-5
FEET LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 5-6 FEET EAST OF CAPE FEAR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A
HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WHILE THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY AFFECT
LAND...WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH THESE STORMS ACROSS THE
BEACHES AND OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY...CREATING AN EXPANDING AREA OF N/NE WINDS ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS
PRETTY WEAK HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE ONLY AROUND 10 KTS BOTH
DAYS. LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OFFSHORE...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW OVER THE
WATERS...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTH...WITH SPEEDS
RISING TO 10-15 KTS. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND
WAVES DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH 2-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALL 3 DAYS. A
CONFUSED SPECTRUM IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THANKS TO THE
WINDS VEERING FROM NE TO SOUTH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
124 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BE THE TREND
THIS WEEK. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOLLOW MID-WEEK THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...DAY HAS EVOLVED MUCH AS EXPECTED...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW
A STRONG CAP WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY MORE AMBITIOUS CONVECTION.
LATEST UPDATE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:
SKIES A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE TODAY WITH MAXIMUMS REACHING
VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRIVE AFTERNOON
GUSTS ALONG BEACHES LATER TODAY AS THE SEA-BREEZE BECOMES MORE
ROBUST IN STRONG JUNE HEATING. WE ARE ONLY 18 DAYS OUT FROM
MAXIMUM OVERHEAD SUN ANGLE MARKING THE START OF
SUMMER...OFFICIALLY 6/21/14/1051Z.
60 DEGREES THE MINIMUM AT ILM THIS MORNING. IN 141 YEAR OF
RECORDS...ONLY 27 OF THOSE YEARS DID THE TEMPERATURE DIP TO 60
DEGREES OR BELOW ON JUNE 3RD.
TODAY A TRANSITION TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY JUNE WEATHER AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE SEASON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED ABOUT 125 MILES SE OF CAPE
FEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE LATEST VWP DEPICTING 10-20 KT
SW WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KILOMETERS.
LATEST NIGHT-TIME AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED PATCHES OF HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NE GULF INTO
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. LOWER CLOUDS WERE WAFTING ACROSS GEORGIA
AND WESTERN SC BENEATH THE RIDGE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED
TODAY AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS OF MODERATE VERTICAL EXTENT WILL POP
ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE...AND MORE NOTABLY WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE
FRONT AS IT MARCHES SLOWLY INLAND OVER THE COASTAL INTERIOR.
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A DRY MID-LAYER CAP WILL ERODE AFTER
19Z-ISH. THIS COINCIDENT WITH PEAK JUNE HEATING MAY ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS TO EMERGE OFF OR NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE. BRIEF
WINDOW 19Z-21Z TIME FRAME WE HAVE INTRODUCED AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
AS THE PERSISTENCE OF RETURN FLOW ENDURES...SO WILL INCREASING
MILDNESS BE OBSERVED IN THE UPCOMING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE MINIMUMS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S COMMON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN
ACTIVE THURSDAY AS SOME AMPLITUDE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS A FRONT
TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE RECOVERED...THIS IS A RECIPE
FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TIMING. I HAVE JOGGED UP POPS TO
REPRESENT THIS TREND. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES
MOSTLY CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS STILL HOLD.
TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY STABLE WITH THE CONSISTENT WARMUP
CONTINUING. HIGHS SHOULD JUST BARLEY ECLIPSE 90 ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE
LOWER 90S THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS MODERATE TO A DEGREE OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO A DRIER SCENARIO AS THE ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW HAS A SLIGHT RIDGE FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS
ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO WEDGE
DOWN FROM THE COAST. BEYOND THIS THE FLOW BUCKLES TO SHOW A SLIGHT
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN. I HAVE FOLLOWED THE LATEST TRENDS
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE
MAINTAINING THE GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN 4-6KFT CU BEING REPORTED IN THE SFC
OBS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL BECOME S-SW 10-15 KTS AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING THICKENING CIRRUS LATER TODAY...BUT THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW NO PCPN FOR OUR AREA. GIVEN THE INVERSION DEPICTED AROUND 800MB
IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN IN THESE TAFS. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MVFR VSBYS INLAND IF THE WINDS TOTALLY DROP OUT. HAVE ADDED TEMPO
MVFR FOR KLBT AS THIS SITE IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE NEARLY CALM WINDS
BEFORE DAYBREAK. VFR WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS 5-8
KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SW WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. NO CHANGES NECESSARY
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:
DECENT MARINE CONDITIONS AS ONSHORE WINDS HAVE EASED AND A MORE
TYPICAL SW WIND FLOW REGIME TAKES OVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS
OFFSHORE. THUS WE ANTICIPATE 2-4 FT SEAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...IN A
MIX OF SSW WAVES 2 FT EVERY 3-5 SECONDS AND ESE WAVES 1-2 EVERY
10-11 SECONDS. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO MARINE FOG EXPECTED. THE SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT MORE VIGOROUS THAN DAYS PAST AND MARINER
SHOULD EXPECTED OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT FROM THE S-SSW BETWEEN
300-600 PM. SW WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AS A FRONT TO THE
NORTH SHARPENS A BIT. 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER PORTION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE...WITH 20 KT GUSTS LIKELY INTO EARLY WED. THIS COULD
CONSTITUTE AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT INTO WEDNESDAY EARLY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MAGNITUDE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A
FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UP WITH
THIS SCENARIO AND WIND SPEEDS ARE NOW IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE
INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME
CONVECTION COULD DISTORT WIND FIELDS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS WELL. SEAS INCREASE FROM INITIAL VALUES OF 2-3 FEET TO
3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY A FEW SIX FOOTERS LATE CITING THE INCREASING
WIND FIELDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CERTAINLY A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE EXTENDED. A FRONT WILL BE
BISECTING THE WATERS AND WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE THE DILEMMA...NOT
SPEEDS. THE WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN OFFERS LITTLE MORE THAN TEN
KNOTS. THE LATEST WPC GRAPHICS SHOW MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT
DEVELOPING SATURDAY AND THIS IS THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. THE USUAL DISCLAIMER HOLDS HOWEVER AS THE FRONTS
FINAL POSITION IS MUCH IN QUESTION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE LESS
OF A CONCERN WITH A RANGE OF 1-3 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1227 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
OTHER THAN TO BLEND OBSERVED TRENDS THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE DENSITY
OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE THE GREATEST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC...NO CHANGES
REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
DID EXPAND THE FOG MENTION TO ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ITS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT SHOULD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
BECOME NECESSARY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER
50S ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
SKIES CLEAR...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THUS...WIDESPREAD SURFACE SATURATION IS EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 21 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO
SUPPORT THE FOG THREAT AT MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF
RECENT RAINFALL AND GREEN-UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
UPPER LOW IDENTIFIED ON 18Z/NAM MODEL OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW IN MINNESOTA WILL ALSO EXIT THE
REGION LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LARGE CLOUD
SHIELD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL SHRINK SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST WILL END BY SUNSET. AS
CLOUDS DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
INCREASES CENTRAL AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALREADY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY BRUSHING THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. FOR
TEMPERATURES IT WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
EXITING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE
DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A BREAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SET UP
WARMING AND INSTABILITY AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OFF AND ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MIGHT BRING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
IMPULSES REACHES NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN COOLING TO THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TAF SITES TONIGHT. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FIRST ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER AT SITES KISN AND KBIS AND SHORTLY AFTER AT
SITES KMOT...KDIK...AND KJMS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KBIS AND KISN WHERE FOG DENSITY WILL BE THE
GREATEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KMOT...KDIK...AND KJMS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1126 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
NOT ENOUGH CHANGES MADE TO WARRANT AN UPDATE THIS PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
MINOR UPDATES TO POPS AS PCPN CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN NOW CONFINED
TO THE NE FA. CLOUDS ALSO CLEARING NICELY FROM VALLEY WEST. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS POINTING TO SOME BR FORMATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
FA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING SO CURRENT FOG OUTLOOK LOOKS OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND ABLE TO
START TRIMMING POPS ACROSS WESTERN EDGE. ALSO SEEING MORE BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER SO MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
ADJUSTING CLOUD TRENDS AND POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
UPPER LOW NEAR BEMIDJI AT MID AFTERNOON WITH SFC LOW NEAR HIBBING
MN. WRAPAROUND RAIN AREA OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW END OF THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FCST TO SEE SHOWERS TIL LATE
TONIGHT.
QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF CLEARING AND TEMPS AND IF ANY FOG
FORMS. RAP MODEL AVIATION FCSTS DO INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW
CLOUDS PSBL IN THE MINOT-DEVILS LAKE-JAMESTOWN REGION LATE TONIGHT
SO COORD WITH WFO BIS AND INSERTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN FAR WRN
FCST AREA. DO EXPECT CLEARING TO PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT REACHING THE RRV TOWARD 06Z AND THEN FAR EAST AROUND 12Z.
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER WITH SUNSHINE AND MIDDAY/AFTN
CUMULUS CLOUDS. WARMER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF RAIN
TO BYPASS OUR IMMEDIATE FCST AREA TO OUR SOUTH TUES AFTN-NIGHT
WITH RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SD/FAR SRN MN/IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WRN CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF A FRONT ENTERING
ERN ND WED AFTN AND THEN SPREADING EAST WED NIGHT. BRIEF BREAK
PSBL BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AFTN. MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUES TO LOOK WET
AND COOL. ALL MODELS START WITH A 500MB LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND ZONAL FLOW TO ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER LOTS OF DIFFERENCE AFTER
THIS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER WAVE FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HARD TO FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR TIME FRAME AND GO
DRY AS MODELS HAVE MARKED DIFFERENCES WITH THEIR PCPN FIELDS. THERE
WILL BE DRY PERIODS MIXED IN BUT WILL STICK WITH INHERITED BROAD
PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT. WITH THE WET AND CLOUDY PATTERN TEMPS WILL
STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
STILL NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH FOG POTENTIAL SO CONFIDENCE NOT
REAL HIGH BUT COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF BR WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEARING AND RECENT RAINFALL. WILL SEE SOME SCT-BKN VFR CU
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
740 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
245 PM UPDATE...
FRESHENED UP GRIDS TO REFLECT TORNADO WATCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL VALID CONCERNING FORECAST THINKING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
VERY BUSY SHIFT HERE THIS MORNING. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
HARD TO DISCERN ACROSS CWA BUT FEEL IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS S OH INTO C WV PER LATEST RUC LOW LEVEL THETA E AXIS.
BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE ALONG GRADIENT AND BECOMING SFC
BASED. THIS WILL SLIDE INTO PORTIONS OF SE OH/NE KY AND W WV OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH ISOLATED SVR THREAT ON COLD POOL PROPAGATION.
COMPLICATED FORECAST HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BLOWOFF FROM DECAYING MCS OVER W KY THIS MORNING WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF SFC HEATING C AND E KY INTO WV TO AID IN INSTABILITY. FEEL
THE RAP/HRRR HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS AND USED THESE AS A BASE
FOR THE FORECAST. THINKING A FEW ROUNDS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOW ALONG VORT LOBE...SLATED 21 TO 01Z TIME FRAME. SEE SPC TXT FOR
A MORE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION REGARDING SLIGHT RISK AND SVR THREAT
OVER E OH/E KY AND C WV AS WE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
ASSESSMENT.
GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THIS EVE AND IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NE KY/C AND S WV/SE OH UNTIL 09Z...ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWING OUTLINE
OF MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUED EARLIER BY WPC.
HAVE FRONT SAGGING S THRU AREA OVERNIGHT AND SLOWING SOME ON
THURSDAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE SW OF AREA FOR TOMORROW WITH SOME FRESH
AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE STORMS THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA WITH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER DYNAMICS TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS FAR SOUTH FRIDAY. CHOSE A MIDDLE OF ROAD SCENARIO AS
SOME MODELS KEEP RAIN SOUTH OF US...WHILE OTHER BRING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH A WARMING TREND SATURDAY UNDER LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING ON A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN AS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT RETURN OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERHAPS BY
TUESDAY...THE FRONT MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW SOME COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT STILL SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING THROUGH. KEEPING 1 TO 2 HR IFR TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION WITH SOME GUSTS FOR MAINLY THE EASTERN
SITES.
EXPECT STRATUS TO HANG ON TONIGHT WITH MVFR VSBY FG. FLOW SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FG. FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS OVERNIGHT
...TAKING INTO MORNING TO CLEAR SW VA. ANY LOW STRATUS WILL
QUICKLY SCT OUT IN THE MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN FLAT LOW END VFR CU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEGREE OF IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
COULD VARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF A LARGE BOWING LINE DEVELOPS
LATER TODAY...THAT WOULD LIKELY SPEED UP THE TIMING...ESPECIALLY
DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL AS INCREASE THE WIND THREAT. TIMING AND EXTENT
OF POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS WILL VARY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/05/14
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H M M H H H M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H M L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M H M H L M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H M H H H M M L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M M M M M H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>008-
013>018-024>029.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KMC/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1217 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN RETREATING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS BEING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. HAVE TWEAKS POPS/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
IN ADDITION...CLOUDS AND PRECIP ARE ACTING TO HOLD DOWN TEMPS.
LATEST LAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON COOLER TEMPS...
ALTHOUGH THE MAX TEMPS ON THE LAV MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL. HAVE
OPTED TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY DOWN A FEW DEGREES...
HOWEVER...HAVE REMAINED ABOVE LAV NUMBERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ENTERING
INTO WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BAND OF SHOWERS
EVIDENT ON KRLX AND SURROUNDING WSR-88D. HAVE TIMED BAND INTO KCRW
BY 12Z..AND EXITING EASTERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE 18Z. THIS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN LINE WITH LATEST RUC FORECAST
TRENDS. LIKE THE IDEA OF ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWER AND STORMS FORMING
UP ACROSS SE OH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLD POPS FOR BETTER PART OF TODAY DESPITE THE LULL. FOR
TEMPS...STAY WITH BIAS CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN LITTLE
CHANGE TO INHERITED TEMPS. NOTED THAT THERE ARE ONLY MINIMAL
DIFFERENCES WITH VARIOUS TEMP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED MORNING
MOVES NEWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WED. THE TIMING OF THE
WARM ADVECTION AND THETA E FEED IS MIDDAY...BEYOND THE FAVORED EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION...SO DO EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO
MUCH.
A VIGOROUS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH DRIVES A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WED NT...WHICH IN TURN DRAGS A
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THU MORNING. THERE IS MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES...BUT EVEN THE FASTER GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE W THROUGH WED AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA. THIS MAY BE FURTHER MODULATED BY TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE ONGOING UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA EARLY WED AND
HOW FAR N THE WARM FRONT GETS WED. GFS APPEARS TO FALL VICTIM TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PUTTING ITS QPF
IN QUESTION.
GULF INFLOW WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE AT ALL AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AMPLITUDE FEATURE. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA NOW WILL
NOT BE PUSHED FAR TO THE S BY THE FRONT THAT IS STALLED OUT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL QUICKLY RETURN. THIS...ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON 50 KTS MEAN MID
LEVEL FLOW AND VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
CONCERT WITH SWODY2 FROM SPC...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MOVEMENT SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES IMPACT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS LEFT
THU...BUT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY NOT LEAVE MUCH FOR THU EVEN GIVEN
A SLOWER SOLN. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS PARTIAL CLEARING THU AFTERNOON
AND NT.
HIGHS LOOKED GOOD FOR WED. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
BEYOND THAT INCLUDING A RATHER MILD ALBEIT WET WED NT BUT A GOOD
DEAL COOLER THU NT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AT LEAST IN THE
DEWPT DEPT. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX QUICKLY RETURNS TO ROUND OUT THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOTHER TROF
MAKING INROADS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
AMPLITUDE OF WHICH REMAINS IN QUESTION. NONETHELESS CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE GIVEN HEALTHY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WITH FAIRLY ORGANIZED BAND OF
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO ISOLD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INVOF OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. AFT
00Z...WILL SEE SOME RECOVERY OF CIG AND VSBY VALUES. MENTIONING
MVFR FOG AT KEKN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH MOIST BL IN PLACE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING
COULD VARY BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FG IN
MOUNTAIN SITES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...JSH/KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
622 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN RETREATING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ENTERING INTO
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EVIDENT
ON KRLX AND SURROUNDING WSR-88D. HAVE TIMED BAND INTO KCRW BY
12Z..AND EXITING EASTERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE 18Z. THIS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN LINE WITH LATEST RUC FORECAST TRENDS.
LIKE THE IDEA OF ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWER AND STORMS FORMING UP ACROSS
SE OH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS UNSTABLE AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLD POPS FOR BETTER
PART OF TODAY DESPITE THE LULL. FOR TEMPS...STAY WITH BIAS
CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED TEMPS.
NOTED THAT THERE ARE ONLY MINIMAL DIFFERENCES WITH VARIOUS TEMP
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED MORNING
MOVES NEWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WED. THE TIMING OF THE
WARM ADVECTION AND THETA E FEED IS MIDDAY...BEYOND THE FAVORED EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION...SO DO EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO
MUCH.
A VIGOROUS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH DRIVES A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WED NT...WHICH IN TURN DRAGS A
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THU MORNING. THERE IS MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES...BUT EVEN THE FASTER GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE W THROUGH WED AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA. THIS MAY BE FURTHER MODULATED BY TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE ONGOING UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA EARLY WED AND
HOW FAR N THE WARM FRONT GETS WED. GFS APPEARS TO FALL VICTIM TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PUTTING ITS QPF
IN QUESTION.
GULF INFLOW WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE AT ALL AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AMPLITUDE FEATURE. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA NOW WILL
NOT BE PUSHED FAR TO THE S BY THE FRONT THAT IS STALLED OUT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL QUICKLY RETURN. THIS...ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON 50 KTS MEAN MID
LEVEL FLOW AND VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
CONCERT WITH SWODY2 FROM SPC...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MOVEMENT SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES IMPACT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS LEFT
THU...BUT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY NOT LEAVE MUCH FOR THU EVEN GIVEN
A SLOWER SOLN. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS PARTIAL CLEARING THU AFTERNOON
AND NT.
HIGHS LOOKED GOOD FOR WED. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
BEYOND THAT INCLUDING A RATHER MILD ALBEIT WET WED NT BUT A GOOD
DEAL COOLER THU NT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AT LEAST IN THE
DEWPT DEPT. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX QUICKLY RETURNS TO ROUND OUT THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOTHER TROF
MAKING INROADS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
AMPLITUDE OF WHICH REMAINS IN QUESTION. NONETHELESS CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE GIVEN HEALTHY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WITH FAIRLY ORGANIZED BAND OF
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO ISOLD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INVOF OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. AFT
00Z...WILL SEE SOME RECOVERY OF CIG AND VSBY VALUES. MENTIONING
MVFR FOG AT KEKN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH MOIST BL IN PLACE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING
COULD VARY BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FG IN
MOUNTAIN SITES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M M M H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
343 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN RETREATING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ENTERING INTO
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EVIDENT
ON KRLX AND SURROUNDING WSR-88D. HAVE TIMED BAND INTO KCRW BY
12Z..AND EXITING EASTERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE 18Z. THIS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN LINE WITH LATEST RUC FORECAST TRENDS.
LIKE THE IDEA OF ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWER AND STORMS FORMING UP ACROSS
SE OH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS UNSTABLE AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLD POPS FOR BETTER
PART OF TODAY DESPITE THE LULL. FOR TEMPS...STAY WITH BIAS
CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED TEMPS.
NOTED THAT THERE ARE ONLY MINIMAL DIFFERENCES WITH VARIOUS TEMP
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED MORNING
MOVES NEWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WED. THE TIMING OF THE
WARM ADVECTION AND THETA E FEED IS MIDDAY...BEYOND THE FAVORED EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION...SO DO EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO
MUCH.
A VIGOROUS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH DRIVES A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WED NT...WHICH IN TURN DRAGS A
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THU MORNING. THERE IS MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES...BUT EVEN THE FASTER GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE W THROUGH WED AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA. THIS MAY BE FURTHER MODULATED BY TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE ONGOING UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA EARLY WED AND
HOW FAR N THE WARM FRONT GETS WED. GFS APPEARS TO FALL VICTIM TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PUTTING ITS QPF
IN QUESTION.
GULF INFLOW WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE AT ALL AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AMPLITUDE FEATURE. HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA NOW WILL
NOT BE PUSHED FAR TO THE S BY THE FRONT THAT IS STALLED OUT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL QUICKLY RETURN. THIS...ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON 50 KTS MEAN MID
LEVEL FLOW AND VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
CONCERT WITH SWODY2 FROM SPC...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MOVEMENT SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES.
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES IMPACT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS LEFT
THU...BUT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY NOT LEAVE MUCH FOR THU EVEN GIVEN
A SLOWER SOLN. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS PARTIAL CLEARING THU AFTERNOON
AND NT.
HIGHS LOOKED GOOD FOR WED. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
BEYOND THAT INCLUDING A RATHER MILD ALBEIT WET WED NT BUT A GOOD
DEAL COOLER THU NT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AT LEAST IN THE
DEWPT DEPT. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX QUICKLY RETURNS TO ROUND OUT THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOTHER TROF
MAKING INROADS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
AMPLITUDE OF WHICH REMAINS IN QUESTION. NONETHELESS CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE GIVEN HEALTHY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TILL MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND INCREASES CLOUDS FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. A BAND OF
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AROUND 10Z THEN PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING BRINGING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AROUND 18Z. AFT 00Z WILL SEE SOME RECOVERY OF CIG AND VSBY VALUES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING
COULD VARY BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 06/03/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PORTLAND OR
921 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXPECT TODAY TO BE THE CLOUDIEST AND COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ACROSS
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WITH A STRONG MARINE PUSH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...MORNING CLOUDS INLAND WITH AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE IN THE MODELS AND RESULTING
FORECAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS TO BREAK UP SLOWLY
TODAY...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. DRIZZLE HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED SO FAR...BUT A
LITTLE BIT HAS BEEN FALLING ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH BACK INTO THE COASTAL GAPS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO
THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY AND A FEW OF THE CASCADE VALLEYS SOUTH AND
EAST OF EUGENE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
A TOUCH THURSDAY SO EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS TO BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S. EXPECT A NEAR
REPEAT FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD THAT A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE PAC NW
FRI INTO SAT. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ONSHORE SUN INTO MON.
THE EXACT TRACK IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE LOW TRACKS THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE FCST
AREA WITH THIS LOW. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAR TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SEEING HIGHS
INTO THE MID 70S. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS WITH CLOUD BASES LARGELY ABOVE 2000 FEET
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LITTLE LIFTING GOING ON TO LOW
END VFR. THERE ARE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND LOWER CIGS IN SPOTS BUT
APPEAR ISOLATED. WITH PILOT REPORTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING TOPS
AROUND 4000 FT...LOCAL PROGRAMS SUGGEST STRATUS BURN OFF IN THE
VALLEY AROUND 21Z...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LONGER IN THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND KPDX AND KTTD. THE CENTRAL COAST MAY
CLEAR BUT THE NORTH LOOKS TO REMAINS OVERCAST. CIGS LOWER TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHER PRESSURE SQUASHING THE MARINE LAYER
SOME BRINGING MVFR BELOW 2000 FT...POSSIBLY SOME IFR. INLAND
PROGRESSION OF STRATUS WILL BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY COMING
BACK DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND BANKING UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS
AND SINKING SOUTH TO MAYBE NEAR SALEM.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000-2500 FT WITH TOPS
CLOSE TO 4000 FT. LOCAL PROGRAMS AND HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SUGGEST
A SLOW BURN OFF WITH STATUS BECOMING SCATTERED AROUND 21-22Z. VFR
UNTIL EARLY WEDS...THEN LOW MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS MAINTAINS A N TO NW
WIND PATTERN THAT IS TYPICAL OF JUNE WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE S OF NEWPORT.
FOR TODAY THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT NEWPORT SOUTH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SOLID
CASE FOR AN ADVISORY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS ON WED AND THU.
SEAS ARE UP TO 10 TO 11 FT...WITH PERIODS OF 8 TO 10 SEC. WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WAVES ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUED STEEP WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH WED.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT LATER IN THE WEEK. KMD/MH
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL NOON
PDT TODAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1248 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF A WEAK UPPER TROF...MORE LIKE A SHEAR AXIS AT THIS
POINT...EXTENDS FROM MIDDLE TN INTO NORTH MS. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST TN AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. ELSW THE UPPER RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD IN WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE. THE 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT CAP
SO THINK PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FOR EAST AR...MO
BOOTHEEL AND A GOOD PORTION OF WEST TN/NW MS. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A SHOWER/TSTM BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS. CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS ACROSS MAINLY NE
MS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. UPDATE OUT.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014/
AS OF 4AM...AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAIN HAS HUNG AROUND NEAR THE
MS RIVER DELTA TO THE SOUTH OF MEMPHIS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LATEST DUAL- POL THREE HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL INDICATES THAT 2
TO 3 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN A CONCENTRATED AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
WEST MEMPHIS ARKANSAS...BUT SO FAR NO PROBLEMS HAVE ARISEN. THIS
RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND MOVE THROUGH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND A STICKY 70 DEGREES. VISIBILITIES ARE
STARTING TO DROP A LITTLE BIT IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVALENT.
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL STAY MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
70S AREAWIDE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY...HOT...AND HUMID. LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS
AND 90 PLUS DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 100
DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A MID-LEVEL
50 KT JET STREAK PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
MIXED STORM MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A
LINE WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SBCAPE VALUES WILL
APPROACH 2500 J/KG AND LI`S WILL BE NEAR -10C. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT AN MCS WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN...AN MCS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES SETS UP AND
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT STILL KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN CASE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE RIDGING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
FAIR WEATHER AFTERNOON CU FIELD WILL PREVAIL AT VFR LEVELS OVER
MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY... AS A MIDLEVEL WARM CAPPING LAYER
PREVAILS. A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL BREAK THE CAP...PARTICULARLY IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK ELEVATED TROF OVER NORTHEAST MS. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR TS AT TUP APPEARS TO BE AFTER 20Z.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1001 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF A WEAK UPPER TROF...MORE LIKE A SHEAR AXIS AT THIS
POINT...EXTENDS FROM MIDDLE TN INTO NORTH MS. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST TN AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. ELSW THE UPPER RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD IN WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE. THE 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT CAP
SO THINK PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FOR EAST AR...MO
BOOTHEEL AND A GOOD PORTION OF WEST TN/NW MS. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A SHOWER/TSTM BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS. CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS ACROSS MAINLY NE
MS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. UPDATE OUT.
SJM
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014/
AS OF 4AM...AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAIN HAS HUNG AROUND NEAR THE
MS RIVER DELTA TO THE SOUTH OF MEMPHIS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LATEST DUAL- POL THREE HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL INDICATES THAT 2
TO 3 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN A CONCENTRATED AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
WEST MEMPHIS ARKANSAS...BUT SO FAR NO PROBLEMS HAVE ARISEN. THIS
RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND MOVE THROUGH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND A STICKY 70 DEGREES. VISIBILITIES ARE
STARTING TO DROP A LITTLE BIT IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVALENT.
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL STAY MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
70S AREAWIDE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY...HOT...AND HUMID. LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS
AND 90 PLUS DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 100
DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A MID-LEVEL
50 KT JET STREAK PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
MIXED STORM MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A
LINE WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SBCAPE VALUES WILL
APPROACH 2500 J/KG AND LI`S WILL BE NEAR -10C. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT AN MCS WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN...AN MCS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES SETS UP AND
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT STILL KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN CASE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE RIDGING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
AC3
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE A VCTS IS CARRIED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KTUP. AT KMEM AND KMKL...SHOWERS SHOULD
END BY LATER THIS MORNING. IFR/LIFR CIGS CIGS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES
AT KJBR THROUGH 14Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 8
KTS OR LESS.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
710 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014/
AS OF 4AM...AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAIN HAS HUNG AROUND NEAR THE
MS RIVER DELTA TO THE SOUTH OF MEMPHIS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LATEST DUAL- POL THREE HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL INDICATES THAT 2
TO 3 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN A CONCENTRATED AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
WEST MEMPHIS ARKANSAS...BUT SO FAR NO PROBLEMS HAVE ARISEN. THIS
RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND MOVE THROUGH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND A STICKY 70 DEGREES. VISIBILITIES ARE
STARTING TO DROP A LITTLE BIT IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVALENT.
.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL STAY MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
70S AREAWIDE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY...HOT...AND HUMID. LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS
AND 90 PLUS DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 100
DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A MID-LEVEL
50 KT JET STREAK PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
MIXED STORM MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A
LINE WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SBCAPE VALUES WILL
APPROACH 2500 J/KG AND LI`S WILL BE NEAR -10C. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT AN MCS WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN...AN MCS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES SETS UP AND
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT STILL KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN CASE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE RIDGING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE A VCTS IS CARRIED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KTUP. AT KMEM AND KMKL...SHOWERS SHOULD
END BY LATER THIS MORNING. IFR/LIFR CIGS CIGS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES
AT KJBR THROUGH 14Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 8
KTS OR LESS.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
434 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 4AM...
AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAIN HAS HUNG AROUND NEAR THE MS RIVER
DELTA TO THE SOUTH OF MEMPHIS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST DUAL-
POL THREE HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL INDICATES THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES
HAS FALLEN IN A CONCENTRATED AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WEST
MEMPHIS ARKANSAS...BUT SO FAR NO PROBLEMS HAVE ARISEN. THIS RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND MOVE THROUGH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND A STICKY 70 DEGREES. VISIBILITIES ARE
STARTING TO DROP A LITTLE BIT IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVALENT.
.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL STAY MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
70S AREAWIDE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY...HOT...AND HUMID. LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS
AND 90 PLUS DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 100
DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A MID-LEVEL
50 KT JET STREAK PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
MIXED STORM MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A
LINE WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SBCAPE VALUES WILL
APPROACH 2500 J/KG AND LI`S WILL BE NEAR -10C. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT AN MCS WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN...AN MCS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES SETS UP AND
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT STILL KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN CASE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE RIDGING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT PRODUCING VCSH AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS AT
TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TUP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
03/10-14Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT S/SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 6-8 KTS ON
TUESDAY.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
433 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 4AM... AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAIN HAS HUNG AROUND NEAR THE
MS RIVER DELTA TO THE SOUTH OF MEMPHIS SINCE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LATEST DUAL-POL THREE HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL INDICATES THAT 2 TO
3 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN A CONCENTRATED AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
WEST MEMPHIS ARKANSAS...BUT SO FAR NO PROBLEMS HAVE ARISEN. THIS
RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND MOVE THROUGH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND A STICKY 70 DEGREES. VISIBILITIES ARE
STARTING TO DROP A LITTLE BIT IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVALENT.
.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL STAY MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
70S AREAWIDE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY...HOT...AND HUMID. LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS
AND 90 PLUS DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 100
DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A MID-LEVEL
50 KT JET STREAK PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
MIXED STORM MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A
LINE WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SBCAPE VALUES WILL
APPROACH 2500 J/KG AND LI`S WILL BE NEAR -10C. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT AN MCS WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN...AN MCS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES SETS UP AND
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT STILL KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN CASE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE RIDGING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT PRODUCING VCSH AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS AT
TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TUP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
03/10-14Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT S/SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 6-8 KTS ON
TUESDAY.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1125 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS A BAND OF SHOWERS WHICH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF MIDDLE TN. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT
THE CKV AREA UNTIL 08Z OR SO. OTW...LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH SOME LOWER VSBYS TOWARD 12Z.
AIRMASS LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014/
UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
MIDDLE TN IS IN RESPONSE TO A EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE BAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER INITIALLY AS IT REACHES
WESTERN AREAS OF MIDDLE TN A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING. FURTHER
EAST...IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 12Z. SO FOR THE
FORECAST...SEE NO REASON TO ADJUST THE WEATHER GRIDS. SKY
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL
LOOK OK WITH MINS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF BOTH TN AND KY. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CONVECTION MAY REACH THE CKV AREA
LATER THIS EVENING. OTW...LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH SOME LOWER VSBYS TOWARD 12Z. AIRMASS LOOKS
A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK SO FAR. CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST HAS ALSO KEPT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING FROM WEST TN/WEST
KY...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO
AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW POPS SPREADING EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY RESULTING
IN LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE...BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO RETURN WELL INTO THE 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
MID STATE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEGLIGIBLE AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S PLATEAU AND
LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY AS A 60 KT 500 MB JET PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ALL SUGGEST THIS WILL DRIVE AN MCS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE KY BORDER
NORTHWARD...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN OUR AREA
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MID STATE IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES BOTH
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
650 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM PENNSYLVANIA...WESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES EAST ALONG THE FRONT...
THUNDERSTORMS ERRUPTING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND MOVING
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN REGIONS OF
PRECIPITATION. A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS EXITED THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...WE ARE WATCHING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. IT WILL BE
A RACE BETWEEN SUNSET AND ARRIVAL TIME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
19Z/3PM RUN OF THE HRRR GUIDANCE IS LINING UP A LITTLE BETTER WITH
THIS CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO THE 18Z/2PM RUN OF THE RNK-WRF.
HAVE LEANED A BIT HEAVIER ON THE FORMER FOR THE POP/WX UPDATE
HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MOVED TROUGH THE AREA
EARLIER TODAY...A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SO THAT MANY AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
REALIZING THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPS/TDS TO REFLECT THIS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES A
BIT MILDER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL.
AS OF 400 PM TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONT ALOFT WHICH CROSSED THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY RESULTED IS SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MAINLY TRACE PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE OBSERVED...
UPWARDS OF A FEW HUNDRETHS AT MOST. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE
CWA...SO EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS CLEARED THE CWA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS STILL POSITIONED UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...
EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND IL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT INTO THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA...MAINLY WV AND FAR WRN VA...TOWARD OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHATEVER ACTIVITY DOES MANAGE TO GET HERE SHOULD
BE IN A WEAKENING STATE.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF THE VA HIGHLANDS
INTO WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT.
AREAS WHICH MANAGED TO GET A FEW HUNDRETHS OF PRECIP TUESDAY MAY
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
A VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE MID WEST. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD
BOOST OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAIN FOCUS WILL BE A MORE ORGANIZED MCS
WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX
WITH MOST LIKELY TIMING OF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY OPTIMUM TIMING FOR SEVERE. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE AMONG MODELS AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF AN MCS WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
OH VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OR EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. SPC
MAINTAINING AN ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK FOR THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING INTO
OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z THU. SOME SEVERE WX PARAMETERS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING AN MCS OR SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LIMITED DUE
PARTLY TO THE PASSAGE AT NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING. MAINTAINED LIKELY
OR HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW MUCH THE OH VALLEY MCS
ACTUALLY HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND AT NIGHT. A
LOCAL STUDY OF OVER 50 MOUNTAIN CROSSING MESOSCALE SYSTEMS HAS SHOWN
THAT THE CHANCE OF SUCCESSFUL (I.E. REMAINING SEVERE) PASSAGE IS
CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED AT NIGHT OWING PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. BUT THAT IS NOT IN ITSELF A CONCLUSIVE FACTOR.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THURSDAY MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EITHER WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE WESTERLY
AND FALLING DEWPOINTS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
TOWARD THE COAST WHERE WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY TO RECOVER. THIS IS DEPICTED BY DAY 3 SEVERE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC. PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO FALL VICTIM TO THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MCS WITH HEAVIEST RAIN ALSO EXEPCTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON IN THE OH
VALLEY. ENOUGH ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN WITH DECAYING MCS FOR UP TO A
HALF-INCH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OR SO IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA OF COURSE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS MAY SEE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
PUSHING EAST AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND MILD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY JUN CLIMO..UPPER 70S
FAR WEST AND MID-80S EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
WILL LIFT NORTH PULLING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AGAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...EXITING THE FCST AREA BY 5PM/21 UTC.
WILL KEEP A SHORT EARLY PERIOD AT KDAN AND KLYH TO COVER THIS.
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNLIKELY ELSEWHERE. CIGS FOR WRN
SITES WENT QUITE LOW BEHIND THE PCPN BUT THEY SHOULD BE COMING UP
A BIT WITH TIME. BIG QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS HOW MUCH FOG
FORMATION WILL OCCUR. MODELS SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER THTE VALUES
WORKING IN OVERNIGHT... BUT IT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED. EVEN THOUGH
PCPN AMOUNTS WERE MEAGER AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
DRY...FEEL THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TIP THE SCALES IN FAVOR OF
FOG...BUT WILL NOT BITE OFF ENTIRELY ON LIFR VALUES SHOWN IN MOS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD WE WILL BE GETTIG INTO A WAA PATTERN. SOME
ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW WIND GUSTS UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING BUT OVERALLY
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR OTHER PARAMETERS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL
BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF SHRA/TSRA...AND FOG IS LIKELY
EACH MORNING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS AND WHEREVER THERE WAS
RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...
COMMUNICATIONS FROM LYNCHBURG AIRPORT IS BEING REPAIRED. ONCE THIS
MAINTENANCE IS FINISHED THE OBSERVATION FROM THE LYH ASOS WILL
AGAIN BE AVAILABLE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...MBS
EQUIPMENT...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
212 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...STALLING NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER AND BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT TUESDAY...
RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHOWERS WHICH ENTERED THE REGION FROM THE WEST
HAS BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE AS IT BISECTS OUR AREA AND ECHOES ARE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN A BIT TOO EXCITED WITH THIS
BUT LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE CATCHING ON. NO LTG STRIKES DETECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS OF YET...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE AS THE PCPN MOVES
INTO THE LEE TROF WHERE HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE POOLING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS PCPN LOOKS TO OCCUR WELL TO OUR
NW CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT. BELIEVE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WWD WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND HAVE
TRIMMED MAX TEMPS HERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST WITH TRAILING VORTICITY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONT ALOFT IS DETECTABLE AROUND
700 MB WITH NARROW RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE BETWEEN 700-600 MB.
THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM WRN NY AND CENTRAL PA...SOUTHWARD INTO ERN WV AND FAR
WESTERN VA. INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND
COVERAGE DECREASING WITH TIME AND EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE.
THE 12Z RNK SOUNDING INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT THE GSO
SOUNDING INDICATES LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT FOR THE ACTIVITY TO REACH
THE PIEDMONT. EVEN BY MODIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE
U80S...COULD NOT GET SBCAPE IN THE GSO PROFILE TO GET ABOVE 100.
COOLING THE 700-600 MB LAYER BY A FEW DEGREES ONLY GENERATED CAPES
OF 500.
THAT BEING SAID...THINK THE ONLY PRECIP THREAT LOCALLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM EXISTING SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST
OF THE MTNS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT
ALOFT MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES. ANY QPF WILL BE LIGHT...A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE MTNS...AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR RENEWED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE WELL UPSTREAM
OF OUR FCST AREA ALONG THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS STILL
LAGGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE MORE
SUN WILL SUPPORT READINGS IN THE 80S. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE HELD IN 60S THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON PER MORE
CLOUD COVER THERE...BUT SHOULD SEE A LATE DAY SPIKE INTO THE 70S
ONCE THE FRONT ALOFT PASSES AND THE CLOUD THIN ALLOWING FOR SOME
LATE AFTERNOON PEAKS OF SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS AND CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A STRONG
AND HIGHLY KINEMATIC UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WED TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY THU
OVER THE TOP OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF 35 DEG LAT. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MERGE WITH A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF AN MCS
THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS OH/IN WED AFTERNOON...THEN PROPAGATE
AND ACCELERATE ESE DURING THE EVENING WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL
WIND FIELD...E.G. 45-55KTS AT 850MB IN THE 00Z-12Z THU TIME FRAME.
CLEARLY...FOR OUR CWA...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THIS IS BY NO MEANS
A SLAM DUNK SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AS THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS.
FIRST...THE ANTECEDENT/PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS NOT IDEAL FOR SUSTAINING ROBUST CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE TIME FRAME THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL REACH OUR CWA...NAMELY AFT 00Z THU. SECOND...THERE IS THE
UNKNOWN FACTOR OF HOW THE INTERACTION OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH ANY
SUCH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL EVOLVE AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WOULD
RESULT IN RAPID DISSIPATING OF SUCH CONVECTION AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CLEARLY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE ACROSS OUR WV COUNTIES THEN AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WED EVENING AND BEFORE
IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ALLEGHANYS. CONVECTION
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU BECOMES AN INCREASINGLY PROBLEMATIC
AND UNCERTAIN ISSUE IN CONSIDERATION OF THE FACTORS ABOVE.
CERTAINLY...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THESE AREAS AND DURING THE TIME
FRAME IN WHICH THIS CONVECTION WOULD REACH THESE AREAS...WOULD BE
FAR LESS THAN FAVORABLE. THUS...ONLY CHC POPS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED
IN THESE AREAS AND NO MENTION OF SEVERE AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME THREAT FOR WAA/PRE-MCS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV WED AFTERNOON.
FOR THU...ALL MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF PUSHING THE SHORT WAVE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CWA BY THE END OF
THE DAY ALLOWING MUCH DRIER AIR TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TIME AND LINGERING INSTABILITY...DEPENDING ON THE
DEGREE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEBRIS/POST FRONTAL CLOUDS...TO SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE VA PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE AND THE NC COUNTIES SEEMS CERTAIN...ENDING
BY 00Z FROM THE NORTH. IT NOW APPEARS CLEARER FOR THU THAT THE
MAIN THREAT FOR ANY RENEWED SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR
CWA ACROSS NC/SC. THIS WILL LEAVE THU NIGHT AND FRI DRY AND COOLER
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT WELL SOUTH INTO GA/SC. THIS
MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH THAN INDICATED IN PRIOR DAYS FORECASTS
IS A RESULT OF THE SHORT WAVE MERGING WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE NE U.S....THUS GIVING IT A GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH. THESE MODEL
CHANGES HAVE ALLOWED FOR CONSIDERABLE REDUCTION IN POPS THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE REMOVAL OF MENTIONABLE POPS FRI. THE
AIR MASS IS ACTUALLY QUITE DRY AND NOTABLY PLEASANT FOR EARLY JUNE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP FROM THE +16 TO +20C RANGE WED
TO +12 TO +14C BY FRI.
FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A GENERAL GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE PERIOD
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES OR DIFFERENCES NOTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BY SAT...WE WILL START TO SEE WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE THU/FRI
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH START TO CREEP BACK NORTH ALONG WITH
A WARM...MOIST...MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT
INTO THE OH VALLEY SUN. WAA ADVECTION THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SUN...WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE CWA ALONG WITH THE NEXT THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. BEYOND SUN...THE PATTERN APPEARS LESS VOLATILE/ACTIVE.
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOM IN THE GULF TO SOME
DEGREE ON THE LONG RANGE MODELS MID TO LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN LATITUDES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. MAY ATTEMPT TO EXPAND INTO
THE OH/KY VALLEY WHICH WOULD BLOCK THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES.
SO FAR THIS SEASON...SUCH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED TO ANY SIGNIFICANCE.
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AS 850MB TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE
+16C TO +18C RANGE...BUT REMAINING FAR SHORT OF ANYTHING REALLY
CONSIDERED HOT OR WHAT COULD OCCUR AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...EXITING THE FCST AREA BY 5PM/21 UTC.
WILL KEEP A SHORT EARLY PERIOD AT KDAN AND KLYH TO COVER THIS.
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNLIKELY ELSEWHERE. CIGS FOR WRN
SITES WENT QUITE LOW BEHIND THE PCPN BUT THEY SHOULD BE COMING UP
A BIT WITH TIME. BIG QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS HOW MUCH FOG
FORMATION WILL OCCUR. MODELS SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER THTE VALUES
WORKING IN OVERNIGHT... BUT IT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED. EVEN THOUGH
PCPN AMOUNTS WERE MEAGER AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
DRY...FEEL THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TIP THE SCALES IN FAVOR OF
FOG...BUT WILL NOT BITE OFF ENTIRELY ON LIFR VALUES SHOWN IN MOS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD WE WILL BE GETTIG INTO A WAA PATTERN. SOME
ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW WIND GUSTS UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING BUT OVERALLY
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR OTHER PARAMETERS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL
BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF SHRA/TSRA...AND FOG IS LIKELY
EACH MORNING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS AND WHEREVER THERE WAS
RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...
COMMUNICATIONS FROM LYNCHBURG AIRPORT IS BEING REPAIRED. ONCE THIS
MAINTENANCE IS FINISHED THE OBSERVATION FROM THE LYH ASOS WILL
AGAIN BE AVAILABLE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...MBS
EQUIPMENT...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1243 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...STALLING NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER AND BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT TUESDAY...
RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHOWERS WHICH ENTERED THE REGION FROM THE WEST
HAS BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE AS IT BISECTS OUR AREA AND ECHOES ARE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN A BIT TOO EXCITED WITH THIS
BUT LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE CATCHING ON. NO LTG STRIKES DETECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS OF YET...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE AS THE PCPN MOVES
INTO THE LEE TROF WHERE HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE POOLING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS PCPN LOOKS TO OCCUR WELL TO OUR
NW CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT. BELIEVE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WWD WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND HAVE
TRIMMED MAX TEMPS HERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST WITH TRAILING VORTICITY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONT ALOFT IS DETECTABLE AROUND
700 MB WITH NARROW RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE BETWEEN 700-600 MB.
THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM WRN NY AND CENTRAL PA...SOUTHWARD INTO ERN WV AND FAR
WESTERN VA. INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND
COVERAGE DECREASING WITH TIME AND EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE.
THE 12Z RNK SOUNDING INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT THE GSO
SOUNDING INDICATES LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT FOR THE ACTIVITY TO REACH
THE PIEDMONT. EVEN BY MODIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE
U80S...COULD NOT GET SBCAPE IN THE GSO PROFILE TO GET ABOVE 100.
COOLING THE 700-600 MB LAYER BY A FEW DEGREES ONLY GENERATED CAPES
OF 500.
THAT BEING SAID...THINK THE ONLY PRECIP THREAT LOCALLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM EXISTING SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST
OF THE MTNS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT
ALOFT MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES. ANY QPF WILL BE LIGHT...A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE MTNS...AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR RENEWED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE WELL UPSTREAM
OF OUR FCST AREA ALONG THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS STILL
LAGGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE MORE
SUN WILL SUPPORT READINGS IN THE 80S. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE HELD IN 60S THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON PER MORE
CLOUD COVER THERE...BUT SHOULD SEE A LATE DAY SPIKE INTO THE 70S
ONCE THE FRONT ALOFT PASSES AND THE CLOUD THIN ALLOWING FOR SOME
LATE AFTERNOON PEAKS OF SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE MAIN FOCUS AND CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A STRONG
AND HIGHLY KINEMATIC UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WED TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY THU
OVER THE TOP OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF 35 DEG LAT. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MERGE WITH A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF AN MCS
THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS OH/IN WED AFTERNOON...THEN PROPAGATE
AND ACCELERATE ESE DURING THE EVENING WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL
WIND FIELD...E.G. 45-55KTS AT 850MB IN THE 00Z-12Z THU TIME FRAME.
CLEARLY...FOR OUR CWA...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THIS IS BY NO MEANS
A SLAM DUNK SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AS THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS.
FIRST...THE ANTECEDENT/PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS NOT IDEAL FOR SUSTAINING ROBUST CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE TIME FRAME THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL REACH OUR CWA...NAMELY AFT 00Z THU. SECOND...THERE IS THE
UNKNOWN FACTOR OF HOW THE INTERACTION OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH ANY
SUCH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL EVOLVE AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WOULD
RESULT IN RAPID DISSIPATING OF SUCH CONVECTION AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CLEARLY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE ACROSS OUR WV COUNTIES THEN AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WED EVENING AND BEFORE
IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ALLEGHANYS. CONVECTION
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU BECOMES AN INCREASINGLY PROBLEMATIC
AND UNCERTAIN ISSUE IN CONSIDERATION OF THE FACTORS ABOVE.
CERTAINLY...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THESE AREAS AND DURING THE TIME
FRAME IN WHICH THIS CONVECTION WOULD REACH THESE AREAS...WOULD BE
FAR LESS THAN FAVORABLE. THUS...ONLY CHC POPS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED
IN THESE AREAS AND NO MENTION OF SEVERE AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME THREAT FOR WAA/PRE-MCS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV WED AFTERNOON.
FOR THU...ALL MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF PUSHING THE SHORT WAVE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CWA BY THE END OF
THE DAY ALLOWING MUCH DRIER AIR TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TIME AND LINGERING INSTABILITY...DEPENDING ON THE
DEGREE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEBRIS/POST FRONTAL CLOUDS...TO SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE VA PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE AND THE NC COUNTIES SEEMS CERTAIN...ENDING
BY 00Z FROM THE NORTH. IT NOW APPEARS CLEARER FOR THU THAT THE
MAIN THREAT FOR ANY RENEWED SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR
CWA ACROSS NC/SC. THIS WILL LEAVE THU NIGHT AND FRI DRY AND COOLER
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT WELL SOUTH INTO GA/SC. THIS
MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH THAN INDICATED IN PRIOR DAYS FORECASTS
IS A RESULT OF THE SHORT WAVE MERGING WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE NE U.S....THUS GIVING IT A GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH. THESE MODEL
CHANGES HAVE ALLOWED FOR CONSIDERABLE REDUCTION IN POPS THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE REMOVAL OF MENTIONABLE POPS FRI. THE
AIR MASS IS ACTUALLY QUITE DRY AND NOTABLY PLEASANT FOR EARLY JUNE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP FROM THE +16 TO +20C RANGE WED
TO +12 TO +14C BY FRI.
FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A GENERAL GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE PERIOD
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES OR DIFFERENCES NOTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BY SAT...WE WILL START TO SEE WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE THU/FRI
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH START TO CREEP BACK NORTH ALONG WITH
A WARM...MOIST...MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT
INTO THE OH VALLEY SUN. WAA ADVECTION THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SUN...WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE CWA ALONG WITH THE NEXT THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. BEYOND SUN...THE PATTERN APPEARS LESS VOLATILE/ACTIVE.
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOM IN THE GULF TO SOME
DEGREE ON THE LONG RANGE MODELS MID TO LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN LATITUDES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. MAY ATTEMPT TO EXPAND INTO
THE OH/KY VALLEY WHICH WOULD BLOCK THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES.
SO FAR THIS SEASON...SUCH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED TO ANY SIGNIFICANCE.
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AS 850MB TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE
+16C TO +18C RANGE...BUT REMAINING FAR SHORT OF ANYTHING REALLY
CONSIDERED HOT OR WHAT COULD OCCUR AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LINE OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
MID-AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW END VFR CIGS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS EASTERN WV. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER ACROSS EASTERN WV IN UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
-SHRA...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FURTHER EAST. THE THREAT
OF TSRA APPEARS LOW...BUT HAVE INCLUDED FOR DAN AS SOME ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP THERE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT MAINLY EAST OF
THERE. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS WITH MVFR CIGS
DISSIPATING EASTERN WV TOWARD MORNING. THE EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS
WILL DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF BR/FG FOR LWB...AS OF NOW
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY IFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR BR MAY ALSO DEVELOP LYH AND BCB TOWARD MORNING.
WINDS...WSW-W 5-10KTS THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN 7-10KTS WITH LOW
END GUSTS BLF/BCB/ROA BEHIND THE SHRA INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS OVERNIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ANY TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL
BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF SHRA/TSRA...AND FOG IS LIKELY
EACH MORNING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS AND WHEREVER THERE WAS
RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...
COMMUNICATIONS FROM LYNCHBURG AIRPORT IS BEING REPAIRED. ONCE THIS
MAINTENANCE IS FINISHED THE OBSERVATION FROM THE LYH ASOS WILL
AGAIN BE AVAILABLE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/NF/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
910 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHTER WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER REGION. LATE AFTN TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM
KMKE HAD LIGHT WINDS UP TO 2500 FT. LIGHT ENE WINDS JUST ABOVE
SURFACE EXPECTED TO ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM OVER LAKE MI AND POINTS
NORTH ACROSS SRN WI. HOWEVER WITH DEWPTS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSS OVER
TEMP...THINKING PATCHY LIGHT FOG ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD DEW WILL
FORM. LIGHT FOG ESPECIALLY A THREAT IN THE SOUTH WHERE SKIES
CLEARED LATE IN THE DAY AND AREAS OF -RA OCCURRED EARLIER. HENCE
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO SRN CWA FOR LATER TNGT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS STILL LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BULK OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG TO AFFECT SEVERAL TAF
SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...FOG BANK CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FOG CLIPPED PORTIONS OF MARINE ZONE 645 BUT LATEST 11-3.9
MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF FOG STILL LINGERING OVER 646.
HOWEVER APPEARS MORE BREAKS IN THE FOG BANK HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHWEST LAKE MI. WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...THINK FOG WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND DISSIPATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING UP INTO SMALLER
SEGMENTS AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HELPING DRIVE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OR
EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY 22Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S IN AREAS WHERE THE SUN
DOES SHOW THROUGH.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON...THEN CLEAR THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
HOLD OF THE REGION. DRIER AIR AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE IN THE MID
40S AROUND AND EAST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE RIDGE...AND UPPER 40S WEST
OF THERE. COULD GET A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED.
THE HIGH WILL BRING A PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
INLAND AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S...SUGGESTED BY THE 925 MB
TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
A WEAK 250 MB SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A SMALL WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY. SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE MAINLY THURSDAY EVENING.
850/700 MB WARMING OCCURS FRIDAY. 850/700 MB MOISTURE IS RATHER
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER RH NEAR CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
THE NAM IS DRY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A HUNDRETH OVER ALL BE THE
FAR SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES WISCONSIN SATURDAY
AS A 85 KNOT UPPER JET MOVES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY. THIS
PLACES SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK. 700 MB RH INCREASES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE 850 MB RH IS HIGHER
AND SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A VERY WEAK TROUGH
THAT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM THE WEST. THE NAM SPREADS
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHEAST. ZERO TO 1 KM
CAPE DOES INCREASE TO 500 TO 900 JOULES/KG WITH FAIRLY STEEP ZERO
TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 8.7 CELSIUS/KM. HOWEVER THERE IS A STRONG
MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN MONDAY ON THE 00Z ECMWF
WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER...SLOWER AND MORE SOUTH SHORTWAVE ON THE
12Z GFS. THE 06Z DGEX IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY ON THE ECMWF.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
QUICKER ON THE GFS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX.
A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH SOUTH FLOW WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS BRINGS IN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OUT OF TAF SITES BY 22Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT EAST WINDS AT
MADISON...AND LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE EASTERN
SITES...ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY 00Z THURSDAY ACROSS TAF SITES...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TAKING HOLD OF THE REGION. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY MID EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MAY SEE MVFR FOG AT KENOSHA BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z
THURSDAY...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
613 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IS WITH VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL
IN WISCONSIN TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY
DRIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. CU FIELD WITH SOME VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH AS A SURFACE RIDGE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT SOME
VERY SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG COULD FORM IN LOW LYING/VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE 04.17Z RAP KEEPS DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S OVERNIGHT...SO DO NOT THINK THAT THERE IS MUCH CONCERN FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP LOW ENOUGH IN THE BOGS TO CREATE SOME FROST
OVERNIGHT. IF THE CORE OF THE RIDGE WAS GOING TO BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...THEN MAYBE...BUT IT STAYS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
AS THE RIDGE TRACKS TO THE EAST...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER TOMORROW BRINGING LOW
LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. A CORRIDOR OF
1000-2000J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
FORM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA WITH COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH WIND SHEAR/INSTABILITY STAYING ON THE
LOW SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
AFTER THIS SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL END AS A BROAD TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE MORE
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY FORMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. 04.12Z
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH LITTLE TO NO
WIND SHEAR IN THE EFFECTIVE LAYER. SO AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THIS CONVECTION. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST BETWEEN HOW FAST/WIDESPREAD THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF
SPINS UP A DEEP SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE MAIN CROSS OVER BETWEEN THE MODELS APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY
EVENING...SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR
THAT PERIOD.
RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FROM THE EAST FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVES IN ON MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE DRY
WITH A FEW SHOTS OF GETTING SOME RAIN...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY ON THE SEASONAL SIDE
THROUGHOUT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. AS
IT DOES...A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE
05.18Z NAM AND 05.21Z RAP TO DEVELOP OVER BOTH TAF SITES. WITH
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT THE CONCERN IS WHETHER FOG WILL FORM
OR NOT. THE NAM INDICATES THAT SATURATION WILL OCCUR AT THE
SURFACE OVERNIGHT BUT ONLY HAS THE MOISTURE ABOUT 200 FEET DEEP
BEFORE THE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS INCREASE TO ABOUT 3C.
MEANWHILE...THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE THE TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
SHOWING MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KLSE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FOG
WHILE MONITORING THE RAP FORECASTS FOR ANY CHANGES IN ITS TRENDS.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN WYOMING WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THE NAM SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE WEAK TO
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WITH 1-3 UBAR/S OF
UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE NAM...05.18Z GFS AND
05.12Z ECMWF ALL SHOW SOME RAIN MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL ADD IN A VCSH TO KRST TO HANDLE
THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
WABASHA REMAINS THE ONLY SPOT FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS
RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLIER THIS WEEK MAKES IT
DOWN THE RIVER. A FEW SHOTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK WHICH COULD HELP KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER TAKES PLACE TO OUR SOUTH.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC AND THE GREAT LAKES...WITH BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ON THE TOP OF THIS
RIDGE...SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND IN NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. DPVA FROM THESE TWO SHORTWAVES...COMBINED WITH STRONG
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI WHERE MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXISTS PER RAP ANALYSIS...HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DRY CONDITIONS EXIST DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. SOME CIRRUS HAS
BEEN STREAMING IN AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF...AS WELL AS
FROM A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE EQUATORIAL REGION
OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. MASSIVE DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
EXISTS PER GOES DERIVED IMAGERY...DEPICTING 0.6-0.7 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TO 1.4-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA.
REGARDING AIRMASS WARMTH...A BIG DIFFERENCE EXISTS HERE TOO. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWED 925MB TEMPS OF AROUND 16C OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TO 24-30C IN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
CONGEALING INTO A BOWING MCS THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN IOWA. IN
FACT...THE SMALL BOW TRAVERSING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD END UP
BEING THE BOWING MCS. THIS IS VERY WELL AGREED UPON BY BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. FROM THIS POINT...THERE
REMAINS A SPLIT AMONGST SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...
PRIMARILY THE 03.12Z NAM AND 03.09Z SREF WHICH TAKE A FARTHER NORTH
TRACK COMPARED TO THE 03.12Z GFS/ECMWF AND MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE DEALING WITH A BOWING MCS...THE
FORECAST MOTION IS DETERMINED BY CORFIDI VECTORS...AND IN THIS CASE
THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS ARE MORE APPROPRIATE.
THESE VECTORS POINTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUGGEST A TRACK THROUGH
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL...THUS FAVORING THE MORE SOUTHERN
MODELS. THE 03.12Z HI RES ARW AT THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE CONVECTION NOW THE BEST AND ALSO TAKES EVEN MORE OF A SOUTHERN
TRACK.
NOW ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT IS LIKELY TO DROP TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT...THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS FOR A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND TO CROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-90. ALONG WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS
BAND...A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KT JET STREAK AT THE
TROPOPAUSE CROSSING WISCONSIN SHOULD HELP PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SOUTH OF I-90. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT SOUTH OF I-90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS
SUGGEST CLOUD BASES COULD BE ROOTED AT 10000 FT...WHICH MAY TEND TO
LIMIT SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY...INSTABILITY IS
FAIRLY MEAGER ABOVE 10000 FT...THUS LIGHTNING MAY BE ISOLATED AT
BEST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE GONE AFTER 12Z PER 03.12Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SOME HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA PER GFS/ECMWF. DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY
MILD. GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 50S LOOK REASONABLE. ON WEDNESDAY...
INITIAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A
BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. STILL...925MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO 16-18C BY 00Z SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...
1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP.
ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 0.5
INCH OR LESS. THERE ARE SOME ISSUES WITH HOW COLD WE GET...
ESPECIALLY AT OUR COLD SITES WHERE AT SPARTA WI THE MAV IS 36
COMPARED TO 45 OFF THE MET. THE DIFFERENCE IS TIED TO THE SPEED OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SPREADING CLOUDS
TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE 03.12Z NAM BRINGS PRECIPITABLE
WATER BACK UP TOWARDS 1 INCH AT 12Z...REFLECTIVE OF THESE CLOUDS.
FOR NOW HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE MAV AS THE NAM SCENARIO APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER AMONGST MOST GUIDANCE. FOR NOW LEFT OUT A FROST
MENTION SINCE DID NOT GO 100 PERCENT COLD AS THE MAV...BUT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR CENTRAL WI IN LATER FORECASTS.
2. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS A RESULT OF BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN ANY OTHER MODEL.
ALL OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE LEANED THAT WAY.
3. THE WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION. ONE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY...AND A SECOND BEING A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH MN AND WI ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW THESE TWO INTERACT...PRIMARILY WITH
THE 03.00Z/03.12Z ECMWF RUNS MUCH MORE BULLISH SPREADING SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...COMPARED TO THE 03.12Z
GFS/CANADIAN WHICH ARE DRIER. FOR NOW FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS AND
GIVEN THE GENERALLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF...KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UP IN THE 30-60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE CONCERNS STILL SEEM MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A TREND
FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT QUICKER FOR SUNDAY...THUS HAVE LOWER
CHANCES BETWEEN 20-30 THEN. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 8C.
4. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY INCREASES...BUT
THERE IS A GENERAL IDEA FOR RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. EXACT TIMING VARIES...BUT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY
FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS BEING ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY
LOW FOR RST/LSE AS INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY LOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PASSING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 4KFT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH MORE BELOW
THAT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
WEEK...THUS THE WARNING CONTINUES THERE.
REGARDING THE TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI...THE ONLY OTHER FLOOD
WARNINGS THAT WERE PRESENT WERE ALONG THE KICKAPOO AND THESE HAVE
NOW BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN MN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH
RIDGING IN-BETWEEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN
TROUGHING AND A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN MN UPPER
LOW. THIS DRY SLOT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING HELPED TO CLEAR
SKIES OUT FROM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S / LOW 80S HAS RESULTED IN 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND
NO CIN. THIS INSTABILITY AND LACK OF CAPPING HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF
IN PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TO THE NORTHWEST...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXIST OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN.
925MB TEMPS ARE SIGNIFICANT COLDER TOO UNDER THESE CLOUDS...NOTED BY
10C TEMP AT BIS AT 12Z COMPARED TO 16-20C OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT NEAR ALEXANDRIA
MN.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY ON ITS WEST SIDE LOOKS TO BECOME CENTERED OVER WI.
FIRST...ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND
WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAY HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME STRONGER CELLS TIL ABOUT 5-6 PM WITH
0-6KM SHEAR RUNNING AROUND 30 KT AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT 20-25KT. THEN
AS THAT TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRATUS AND
SHOWERS. COLD FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z.
REGARDING THOSE SHOWERS...MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOUD DEPTHS WOULD
SUPPORT THEM MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD
PICK UP A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...AS 925MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KT.
DAYTIME HEATING PLUS SUBSIDENCE AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WILL HELP CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA
BY MID MORNING. UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES THEN LOOKS
TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WITH
THIS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA DRY. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE WARMER
AIR ADVECT BACK IN WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO MAKE A DECENT JUMP
DURING THE DAY...FROM 10-12C AT 12Z TO AROUND 18C AT 00Z. PLENTY OF
SUN FROM THE MID MORNING ON UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PROGGED TO COME CLOSE TO
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING NUMEROUS SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA SHEARING OUT AND PROVIDING DPVA FORCING TO THIS REGION.
PLENTIFUL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION TOO. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE THE SAME AMOUNT OF
SPREAD HANDLING THIS CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 02.12Z NAM AND 02.09Z SREF STILL SHOW A NORTHERN
TRACK...BASICALLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06-18Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 02.12Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE 02.12Z HIRES-ARW SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.
SINCE THE CONVECTION IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A BOWING
MCS...AIDED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING HIGH CAPE
OUT OF KANSAS...CORFIDI VECTORS AND IN PARTICULAR THE FORWARD
PROPAGATING VECTORS NEED TO BE FOLLOWED. THESE WOULD SUGGEST THE MCS
SHOULD TAKE THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE... LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA/NORTHERN MO AND INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
SEVERE PROBS ARE IN THE DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK. EVEN IF THIS SOUTHERN
ROUTE OCCURS...IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN END OF THE MCS AND/OR SOME
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...RELATIVELY
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTH OF I-90 FOR 06-18Z
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MCS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM HEAD DOWN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH.
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY
AS THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. THERE
ARE TWO CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH.
1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
PROGGED...DOWN TO 0.5-0.7 INCHES OR 70-90 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALONG
WITH THIS DRY AIR...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE AT THE SURFACE
TO AID IN LIGHT WINDS. MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S
IN SOME OF OUR TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS. AS SUCH...HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST LOWS COLDER...BUT MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
2. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 02.12Z
NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
HOWEVER...THE 02.12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING...PRODUCING MOSTLY SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR AN
UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. PRIOR TO ITS
ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...PERHAPS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SOME...PRIMARILY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN INCREASING MODEL
AGREEMENT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT HIT 70
ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AT OR BELOW 8C WITH PRECIPITATION
LINGERING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SOME SLACKENING IN THE GRADIENT LATER ON TUE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. MOSTLY SCT/SKC SKIES
INTO TUE AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS.
LATER TUE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
DRIVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ACROSS IA. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN/JET INTO AND ACROSS AN ACCOMPANYING WEST-EAST
RUNNING SFC BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF IOWA...LIKELY STRONG TO SEVERE AND CONTAINING HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...THE FAVORED SCENARIO WILL KEEP THE BULK OF
THE PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90...HAVING JUST A GLANCING BLOW FOR
KRST/KLSE. CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY STAY VFR FOR THE MOST PART. ITS A
SCENARIO THAT BEARS CLOSE ATTENTION THOUGH...AS ANY JOG NORTH WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE HIGHER STORM THREAT NORTH WITH IT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TRIBUTARIES. THE KICKAPOO RIVER REMAINS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR TRIBUTARY FLOODING WITH VIOLA HEADING TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE AND READSTOWN ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD BUT CRESTING. SOLDIERS
GROVE AND GAYS MILLS DOWNSTREAM COULD GET CLOSE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE AND THEREFORE NEED TO BE WATCHED.
SOME OF THE RUNOFF HAS HIT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH LEVELS NOW
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING NORTH OF LA CROSSE. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS WABASHA MAY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...THUS A
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THERE. MEANWHILE...AT WINONA...CONDITIONS DO
NOT LOOK NEARLY AS FAVORABLE TO HIT FLOOD...THEREFORE THE WATCH WAS
CANCELLED THERE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
701 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
LATEST SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN WYOMING (JUST SOUTH OF BORDEAUX) AND THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (JUST NORTH OF SCOTTSBLUFF). COULD SEE SOME
HIGH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALSO TRIGGER SOME
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS FAIRLY LOW IN THE
LOWER 40S...AND SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WE MAY SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
LINING UP EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL ALSO MOST LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS
JUMP THIS EVENING AFTER THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH MINIMAL CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES.
INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD PUSH 40 TO
50 KTS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. 18Z LAPS DATA SHOWING UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE IN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS 1000-1500 K/KG HIGHER THAN THE
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. NOT SURE THE LAPS DATA IS 100 PERCENT
ACCURATE BUT GOING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MESO ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE WOULD MEAN VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 16Z HRRR RUN OF COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISCRETE
CONVECTION INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. AT ANY RATE...THERE IS AT LEAST A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE
CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO LATE
TONIGHT NEAR THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED BY
LATE THIS EVENING WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT...AND THAT BEING
MAINLY HAIL.
AIR MASS SHOULD BE STABLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW. CAP
SHOULD BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPPING. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW...BUT THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY BE TO REMOVE THE
CHANCES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACTUALLY THE
HIGHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TOMORROW EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. STRONG THETAE
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
NAM IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE STRONGEST POSITIVE THETAE THAN
THE GFS. NOT SURE WHICH TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING
OF THESE FEATURES. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS WOULD BE THE CASE...THEN WE MAY SEE
THE CONVECTION DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY. WE DID BUMP UP
POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. THIS MAY
ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON THIS DAY AS
WELL WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LIKE THE BULK OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. AFTER THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH...IT WILL TURN QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND 60S. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROF MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY HELP
STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STILL FAIRLY GOOD
SHEAR IN PLACE. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO YIELD TO LOWER
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
AFTER THE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RIDGING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW. AS A
RESULT...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON MONDAY...DUE TO
GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BANK UP
AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOME AID FROM THE LEE SURFACE TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MUCH GREATER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTER REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND
LARAMIE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER STAGES HAVE CRESTED
AND ARE FORECASTED TO RECEDE. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
SO NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOW MELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...REC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
359 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS OR
SO...WITH THE BEST RADAR COVERAGE SO FAR OVR CARBON/ALBANY
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY HIGH-BASED AND HAS PRODUCED LITTLE
OR NO RAINFALL AS SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS UNDOUBTEDLY ARE PRODUCING WINDS GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE WELL-DEFINED
DRYLINE HAD REACHED KIMBALL AND EXTENDED NORTHWEST TOWARDS
DOUGLAS. CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS MOSTLY DEVELOPED ON THE DRY-SIDE
OF THIS DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH DID HAVE AN UPDRAFT GO UP EAST OF THE
THE DRYLINE...WHICH WAS UNABLE TO BE SUSTAINED. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRY PUNCH ASSOCIATED WITH A H3 JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NEBRASKA AS WELL AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING
ACROSS WYOMING. THE AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL CONDUCIVE
TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. AT 19Z...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS TONGUE OF 2000 J/KG
MLCAPE EXTENDING BACK TO NR THE WY/NE STATELINE. THERE CONTINUED
TO BE HOWEVER SOME WEAK MLCIN OF AROUND 20 J/KG IN THIS AREA
TOO...LIKELY DELAYING SOME THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60+ KNOTS WILL AID ORGANIZATION. LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOW WITH STORMS
PUSHING EAST OF THE CWFA BY AROUND 6 PM...WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION OVR THE PANHANDLE AS WELL LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED
IT INTO THE FORECAST.
FLOW BACKS QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE MAINLY OVR THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PROGD SBCAPES FLARING TO 1000-1500
J/KG. 0-6 KM WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY...PROGD TO BE AROUND
50 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GET
SEVERE CONVECTION GOING. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MULTI-CELL
CLUSTER BY LATER AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH EAST TOWARDS THE
SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA IN THE PROGRESS PATTERN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
NO BIG CHANGES THIS PACKAGE FROM WHAT WE INHERITED ON THE MORNING
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST. 12Z GFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE ADVERTISING A MESSY UPPER PATTERN WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER TROUGH SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN THEY SHIFT THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST GOING INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA...BUT HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON BRINGING IT THROUGH UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO OUR EAST. THE
ECMWF NOW HAS A STRONGER SIGNAL IN DEPICTING A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWER TEMPS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS OUR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL LIKELY GET KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 60S UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE WE CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS ADVERTISED ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO LOW END POPS WERE LEFT IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
EXPECTING SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE DELAYED
THE INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL THINK WE WILL
SEE STORMS POPPING UP OVER THERE AFTER 20Z...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ZONE OF GREATER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM JUST WEST OF CHADRON
DOWN TO ALLIANCE. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
PANHANDLE...MENTIONED VCNTY TSRA ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SITES.
OTHERWISE...700 MB OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOST SITES SHOULD BE
SEEING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECOUPLING
AND WEAKENING TONIGHT AFTER 03Z. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING RADIATION
FOG EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WITH VFR
PREVAILING TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DROPPED ALLIANCE
AND CHADRON DOWN TO LIFR VISIBILITIES WITH SIDNEY AND SCOTTSBLUFF
DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 09Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE. FEWER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO LESS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND WILL PRODUCE A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND
LARAMIE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER STAGES HAVE CRESTED
AND ARE FORECASTED TO RECEDE. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
SO NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOWMELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...GARMON
HYDROLOGY...RUBIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
408 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SET TO IMPACT THE CWA. CURRENTLY WATCHING
MCS TRACK THROUGH TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TN REMAIN
ROBUST...BOWING SEGMENT APPROACHING NORTHWEST GEORGIA IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. AS THIS COMPLEX PUSHES INTO THE STATE...EXPECT
IT TO SPREAD A FEW STRONG STORMS INTO NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE 4-8AM...WITH THE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING TO MAINLY SHOWERS THEREAFTER. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS
HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...WITH LOCAL
WRF...NMM...AND ARW RIDDLED WITH TIMING AND POSITION ISSUES.
OVERALL THE HRRR HAS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SO HAVE PARALLELED ITS SOLUTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BE DICTATED BY HOW THE MORNING
WEATHER EVOLVES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CLOUD COVER
FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY COULD ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...
AND COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS ACROSS
MIDDLE GEORGIA. WITH MODELED MLCAPE OF 2000+ J/KG AND MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE
BETWEEN NOON AND MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE STATE. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
JUST TO OUR WEST OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AL...BUT THE FIVE PERCENT AREA
FOR HAIL AND WIND ENCOMPASS THE MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
CWA. AREAS NORTH OF A HAMILTON TO LOUISVILLE LINE ARE PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ACTIVE PERIOD PERSISTS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY...AND HAVE CONTINUED
WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY AND INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT.
31
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR SATURDAY... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WHILE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COUPLED
WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED STORMS ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE STORMS
BECOMING STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT
PUSHES NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW PUSHING
INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY... A LINGERING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ON SUNDAY... AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. A LACK OF FRONTAL FOCUS
AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST STORMS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN... SUMMER TIME PULSE STORMS... AND REMAIN BELOW
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO AT LEAST NORTH GA ON MONDAY... THESE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...
WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY ENHANCING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT MEANDERING MAINLY JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTH BY EARLY TUESDAY AS MONDAYS
DISTURBANCE CUTS OFF OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTS OFF TO
THE NE ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THESE LATER
PERIODS... WILL SHOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS AT MINIMUM... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY
IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
39
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE
MVFR WITHIN CONVECTION. LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA AND EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE AFTER 08-09Z.
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
STATE...AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE...STRENGTH
AND TIMING. EXPECT LULL IN ACTIVITY 12-16Z...THEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE 21-02Z AND GENERALLY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST...7KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE
TO 7-11KT WITH GUSTS 14-18KT AFTER 14Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 91 69 90 67 / 50 30 40 30
ATLANTA 88 71 89 69 / 40 40 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 83 62 83 61 / 60 30 40 30
CARTERSVILLE 87 68 89 65 / 50 40 40 30
COLUMBUS 92 73 91 70 / 20 30 40 30
GAINESVILLE 87 69 86 67 / 50 30 40 30
MACON 92 69 92 70 / 30 30 40 30
ROME 89 68 90 66 / 60 40 40 30
PEACHTREE CITY 89 68 89 66 / 30 40 40 30
VIDALIA 92 73 91 72 / 20 30 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1251 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
810 PM CDT
FOG NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM AND THEN FOG
POTENTIAL INLAND OVERNIGHT ARE SOME EVENING CHALLENGES.
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN
AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY PULLS AWAY. DRY AIR
ADVECTION WITH THE HIGH IS NOT QUICK ENOUGH TO HALT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS OF LAKE MI AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT AREAS OF LAND EARLY THIS EVE. GARY INDIANA HAS REPORTED
ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY BRIEFLY WITHIN THIS FOG AND SUCH
TEMPORARY LOW VISIBILITY OR EVEN LOWER ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE...MAINLY OF NW IN...PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. LATE DAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURED THE FOG WELL...WITH A WELL- DEFINED
BACK EDGE FROM ROUGHLY MILWAUKEE TO BENTON HARBOR BEING SHOVED BY
THE NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS BACK EDGE OF THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
ARRIVE NEAR THE NE IL AND NW IN SHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT IF IT KEEPS
UP ITS CURRENT PROPAGATION. PER WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS THIS FOG
HAS HUGGED THE SHORELINE AREAS THUS FAR BUT MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND
FURTHER INLAND AFTER DARK WHICH A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE. HAVE EXPANDED THE FOG MENTION DURING THE EVE HOURS IN
THE FORECAST...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THE LINGERING HIGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS FURTHER INLAND MAY SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING INCREASES. THINK WIND COMPONENT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PREVENT ANY DENSE FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD AND ITS RARE TO HAVE
DENSE FOG BE WIDESPREAD IN JUNE. BUT T/TD SPREADS OF ONLY 4
DEGREES AT KANKAKEE AND 5 DEGREES AT PONTIAC DO LEND TO SOME
UNEASINESS. SO CONTINUE PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS AT THIS TIME.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
320 PM CDT
SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT SKIES WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. THEREFORE...I
HAVE DELAYED THIS A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT TIMING WOULD KEEP
MOST OF MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AFTER
1 TO 2 AM...WITH FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS CLEARING UP BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE EXCESS MOISTURE STILL AROUND...WITH DEW
POINTS STILL WELL INTO THE 50S...AND THE FACT THAT THE AREA WILL NOT
HAVE A CHANCE TO REALLY DRY OUT WITH SUNSHINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. I ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM CHICAGO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR A FEW SPECTACULAR
DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY...AND WILL THEN
LIKELY REMAIN DOMINATE THERE INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO
EFFECTIVELY SHIFT ALL OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THIS...FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS...IN THE 40S AND 50S...ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL MAKE FOR GREAT
CONDITIONS TO GET OUTSIDE. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SOME COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE...HOWEVER.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
MOISTURE TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SETTING THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE...SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL CONVECTIVELY ENHANCE THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
THEN TRACK IT ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN A QUASI
ZONAL STATE..WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP IN THE EXTEND PERIOD WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE UPPER MIDWEST.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE COOLING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NONE.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK. CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION. ANY LAKE INDUCED STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED AND THE STAGNANT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY REMAINING STRATUS OVER THE LAKE.
THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE CAUSING FOG AT A FEW LOCATIONS
AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG FORECAST FOR GYY...DPA...AND
RFD. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST MVFR FOG...BUT WITH SITES ALREADY
BOUNCING IN THE IFR RANGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH 1 SM. VSBY MAY ALSO
BOUNCE AROUND MORE THAN FORECAST.
FOG...ASSUMING THERE IS SOME AT THE TERMINALS...QUICKLY BURNS OFF
IN THE MORNING WITH EAST WINDS. A SCATTERED VFR DECK SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WINDS TURN SE AND DIMINISH.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY FOG NOT FORMING AT THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSRA.
* SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA/TSRA. MORNING MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS EAST...THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITING THE
LAKE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL ASSIST THE FRONT IN MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
EARLY SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS POTENTIALLY AROUND 20 KT DURING
THIS PERIOD FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE
THE STRONGEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LAKES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH.
FOR ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
TOPPING OUT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SINCE LATE THIS MORNING...
SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MARGINAL CONDITIONS EXIST...MAINLY
BETWEEN WILMETTE HARBOR AND GARY BASED ON WIND DIRECTION AND OBS
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT AM
PLANNING TO DROP SCA AND BEACH HAZARD HEADLINES WITH AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1139 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Cold front has sunk to the Ohio River valley this evening, and
a ridge of high pressure building south across Lake Michigan has
turned winds northeast over the entire forecast area. Drier air
will be advected in through the night, with dew points falling
into the 50s north of I-74 already and this should spread over
most of the area over the next several hours. Clearing trend
continues to spread southward as well, but the RAP continues to
keep partly cloudy skies lingering around the southern fringes of
the CWA through the night. One item to watch is the fog potential,
primarily over the northern CWA where skies will be clearer. A
small area of low clouds and fog was evident this hour on 11-3.9mu
satellite imagery across the south quarter of Lake Michigan and
the adjacent Indiana shore, and the RAP model shows some of this
advecting southwest after midnight. Forecast visibility does show
it stopping shy of the CWA as the forecast sounding near
Bloomington is fairly dry late tonight except at the immediate
surface, so will leave this out for now and monitor the trends.
Updated zones/grids have been sent, mainly for sky cover and to
remove the lingering PoP`s in the far southeast CWA this evening.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1139 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
MVFR ceilings lingering at KSPI/KDEC as part of a narrow band of
clouds across the central sections of Illinois, but should be
exiting these areas in the first couple hours of the TAF period.
Would not rule out a bit of ground fog toward sunrise, but
forecast soundings and winds would suggest this should not be a
widespread problem. VFR conditions to prevail the remainder of the
period, as high pressure over Lake Michigan continues the east-
northeast flow. Ceilings expected to develop during the afternoon
ahead of an upper wave coming in from the west, but these will be
15kft or higher.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Problems today are the current boundary in unstable air mass over
the southeast, and several minor upper systems to move through and
trigger precip chances.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.
Surface low by this afternoon over central IN with weak
convergence on boundary that trails to the west into central MO.
Convection appears to be forming along boundary and in area of
MLCAPEs of 2500 and moisture convergence, SPC went with watch over
far southeast CWA. Boundary is shifting to the south slowly and so
watch will most likely be in affect for few hours.
Models all bring minor wave into southern sections for Friday
night, so kept chance pops in region.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.
Weak upper level flow does allow another weak system to move into
region Saturday into Sunday. Upper support at this time seems to
be weak in weak zonal flow aloft and so severe potential still
uncertain. Kept pops in region through weekend.
Another weak system for midweek in the continuing zonal flow.
Goetsch
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE. AN AREA OF
STRATUS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FAR EASTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN ISOLATED VISIBILITY BELOW
1/4 MILE AT FREEPORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EARLY
MORNING FOG POTENTIAL AND THE POSSIBILITY LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS REACHING
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...A LOCALIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED NEAR
FREEPORT...WITH LIGHT FOG TO THE SOUTH AT MOLINE...STERLING AND PRINCETON.
WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST GRIDS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
DUE TO THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. THE 13KM RAP CURRENTLY HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...AND THE DECK IS EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH IOWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND SOME NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...THE
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST SOME STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND THEN ANOTHER CHANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE ARRIVES BUT MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED. THE GFS SEEMS WAY OVERDONE WITH QPF AS THIS MODEL
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT MOISTURE ISSUES. THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY AND
WILL FOLLOW SUIT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THIS WEEKEND...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS STRUGGLING
WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE
TO OVER 1.50 INCHES...SO RAIN AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH ONE INCH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. A MORE WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE. MUCH
OF THE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY SO WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO SALVAGE AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S.
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS
THE ECMWF/GEM FORM A CUT-OFF CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE MID MS
VALLEY BY MID WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS HAS NO SUCH THING AND
KEEPS THE PATTERN PROGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN RAIN
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW THE CONSENSUS FORECAST
IS TO KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION...BRINGING DRY AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THE
REMAINING MVFR/VFR CIGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BRL. THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z THURSDAY
MORNING MAINLY AT DBQ AND BRL. OTHER THAN THIS...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL KS EAST ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHERN IL TO A LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AT
19Z. A WEAK TROUGH AND LAKE ENHANCED BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TRAILED
W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL IL THROUGH EASTERN IA INTO FAR SE MN. ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WERE KEEPING
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WAS ALSO TRIGGERING A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER...DRIER AIR OVER NW IL INTO EAST CENTRAL IA...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER SE IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL IL. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...WHICH WAS HELPING BUILD A 1014 MB
SURFACE HIGH DOWNSTREAM OVER UPPER MI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FOCUS AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TONIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDES EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE WEAK
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL LEND
A MORE UNIFORM E-NE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND FAVORING CLEARING SKIES. LOW LEVEL RH
FIELDS IN 18Z RAP MODEL...WHICH HAD A DECENT DEPICTION OF CLOUD
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...ADVERTISES THIS CLEARING TAKING
PLACE FROM NE TO SW...WITH SE IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL IL POSSIBLY
HANGING ON TO CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER. WITH
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CLEARING EARLIEST AND LIKELY TO SEE
DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...HAVE MINS THERE
RANGING FROM 49 AT FREEPORT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S NORTH OF I-80.
LATER CLEARING AND HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN WILL HOLD
AREAS TO THE SOUTH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR
ON LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANY FOG
POTENTIAL BELOW THRESHOLDS WORTH MENTIONING...BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.
THURSDAY...THE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.
GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOOKED REASONABLE AND WERE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DEPICT TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY WITH ONE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND THE OTHER TO THE SOUTH OF
EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS AND WILL LEAVE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
A LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WE ENJOY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING. AS
THE RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH... MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CONTINUED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND THUS HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WHICH SPLITS THIS ENERGY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE WOULD MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA
WHILE THE SECOND DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
AND WOULD LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE GFS
AND LEAVE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION...BRINGING DRY AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THE
REMAINING MVFR/VFR CIGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BRL...BUT CURRENT
INFO SUGGEST IT WILL CLEAR THAT SITE BY 06Z...THUS WE WILL SHOW NO
CIGS AT ANY SITE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY AT DBQ AND
BRL. OTHER THAN THIS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
346 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
08Z water vapor shows a shortwave trough moving across the northern
Rockies into the plains. This wave has kicked off convection that
has moved off the higher terrain into western KS. Surface and upper
air obs continue to show a very moist and unstable airmass across
central and eastern KS while profiler data shows a low level jet
beginning to veer around to the south and southwest. Most of the
convective allowing models show this developing MCS moving east
along the instability and moisture axis. This should take the MCS
east southeast along and south of I-70 and this is where the highest
POPs will be in the forecast. Some the of models suggest there could
be bowing segments with the MCS so damaging winds appear to be the
biggest concern. However a discrete storm would also be capable of
some large hail and/or a tornado through the morning hours.
Additionally the models prog PWs increasing to around 2 inches which
is more than 2 standard deviations above normal for early June. So
flash flooding could be a real problem is heavy rainfall last for
more than an hour or so over any given location. This is likely
going to impact the morning commute with most guidance taking the
convection east into MO by noon. The RAP and NAM continue to show
some kind of MCV hanging over the forecast area into the early
afternoon. Because of this will keep some chance POPs through the
afternoon in case additional storms are able to develop since there
is little inhibition to convection present in the models. Models
show weak surface ridging remaining over the forecast area with a
easterly surface wind. This combined with the cloud cover and precip
should keep highs in the middle 70s to near 80s.
For tonight, the surface boundary acting as the focus for convection
is progged to be a little further south of the forecast area.
Therefore the thinking is that the moisture and instability axis
will be shifted a little further south as well and any vort max that
triggers storms off the higher terrain this afternoon should favor a
track across southern KS and northern OK. However there should still
be some elevated instability and plenty of moisture for the chance
that some elevated storms could form along the nose of the low level
jet into central KS. Have kept some chance POPs for this reason.
Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower and middle 60s since
there is no real cold air advection taking place with a mild and
moist airmass in place.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
A longer wave length low amplitude upper level trough will continue
across the southwestern US through Saturday. Minor H5 troughs will
lift east-northeast across the central and southern plains bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period.
A more amplified H5 trough will lift east-northeast across KS Friday
night and into MO by Saturday afternoon. Strong ascent with deep
moisture in place will provide eastern KS with a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday Morning. An MCS
may develop Friday evening across southwest KS and move east-
northeast along and south of I-70. Any forward propagating MCS
will have the potential to bring very heavy rainfall, damaging
outflow winds and large hail within the stronger updrafts. Areas
along and south of interstate 70 may see an inch or two of
rainfall Friday Night into Saturday Morning which may cause
localized flooding.
The main H5 trough embedded within the southern branch of the jet
stream will be kicked eastward across north TX and OK. We may
see a break in the heavy rainfall Saturday night into Sunday, as
the stronger ascent passes south of the CWA.
The next upper level trough will dig southeast out of western Canada
into the central plains on Monday. This upper level trough may bring
another good chance for showers and thunderstorms with potential for
heavy rainfall on Monday as a surface cold front pushes southeast
across eastern KS. The upper level trough will amplify into a closed
upper low as it digs southeast across eastern OK, then the upper low
will lift northeast into the mid MS river valley. Lighter showers
will be possible on the west side of the upper low Monday night
through Tuesday.
We may see another break in our rain chances Tuesday night through
Wednesday.
An upper level trough will dig southeast into the pacific northwest
and stronger westerly mid level flow across the central Rockies
will cause a lee trough to develop across the northern and central
high plains by the middle and end of next week. Deep moisture will
begin to return across the plains and we will see chances for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday night.
High temperatures will be in the lower 80s Friday and Saturday.
We`ll see a slight cool down Sunday and Monday with highs in the
lower to mid 70s. High temperatures will warm back into 80s by mid
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
Thunderstorms become increasingly likely from 09Z through 13Z.
There is some potential for hail with these storms, but damaging
wind gusts may be the greatest hazard. As of now, strongest winds
seem likely to pass south of TAF sites, but there is some
potential for the storm to track farther north...closer to TAF
sites. Expect storms to exit the area by 18Z if not earlier with
MVFR probably holding on after the storms exit.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
PROGRESSIVE DERECHO DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WHICH WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE HRRR
AND RAP ARE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TRACK WHICH SUGGESTS
IMPACT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WICHITA METRO LOOKS REASONABLE
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WATCH 226. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MESO/BOWING
SEGMENT. WIND DRIVEN HAIL IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAIL SIZE
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE GOLF BALL OR LESS...THOUGH COULD
STILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IF COINCIDENT
WITH SWATH OF STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRECEDE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE WIND STORM...ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION FEEDER ARM OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MESOSCALE COMPLEX WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW LATER TODAY...SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY RESIDE CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER OR INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER LARGER SCALE MESO-CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH
EPISODAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH DAILY
TRENDS ON PLACEMENT AND MODE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THE PRECEDING
12 TO 24 HOURS.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE DUE TO HIGHER IMPACT AND FOCUS ON SHORT TERM
WEATHER.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
EXPECTING A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 86 69 83 68 / 70 60 50 80
HUTCHINSON 84 67 82 67 / 80 60 40 80
NEWTON 82 67 81 66 / 80 60 40 80
ELDORADO 82 67 80 67 / 70 60 50 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 69 83 69 / 60 60 50 80
RUSSELL 82 64 82 65 / 70 40 30 70
GREAT BEND 83 65 82 65 / 70 60 40 80
SALINA 82 66 82 66 / 70 30 30 80
MCPHERSON 83 66 81 66 / 80 50 40 80
COFFEYVILLE 85 69 82 69 / 60 60 60 70
CHANUTE 81 68 81 67 / 70 60 50 70
IOLA 80 67 80 67 / 70 60 50 70
PARSONS-KPPF 84 68 82 68 / 70 60 60 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS IS HELPING A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY. THE DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT
TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THINGS REMAIN STEAMY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NEARLY THE SAME...IN
THE UPPER 60S. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE CWA...AS WELL...SO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED WITH THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THICK MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA...DO EXPECT ENOUGH THINNING LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG...MAINLY
IN THE VALLEYS...THROUGH DAWN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A DEEP LOW SPINNING NORTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE STRONG RIDGING IS BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FAST FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING ALONG FROM WEST TO EAST. THE STRONGEST WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AND HAS PUSHED HEIGHTS DOWN OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...EVEN AS HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...A
COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND DIP THEM TEMPORARILY.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A
LEAN ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIFTING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CWA TO KEEP A DECENT...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND THEN NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COME BACK
NORTHEAST. LATER TONIGHT...DO ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AROUND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE MODERATES OUR
RECENT WARMTH...THOUGH TODAY WILL BE THE NICER DAY DUE TO MOST SEEING
MUCH DRIER HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM AND TONIGHT FOR SOME SPECIFIC
POINTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...SIMILARLY LOW IN THE NORTH...
THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM WESTERN KY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN TN. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN
UPTICK IN THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR 0Z
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ARE STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING ANY KIND OF AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...STUCK BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CONUS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER CENTRAL KY. THIS WILL ALSO WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SUPPRESSED AND
WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE ACROSS KENTUCKY. INSTEAD...THESE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NEARLY WEST TO EAST AND STRAIGHT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IF ALL HOLDS TRUE...THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL FINALLY START MOVING EASTWARD AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING SOME DEEPER TROUGHING TO TAKE FORM OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...AND THEN EVENTUALLY THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID
WEEK. HOWEVER...BY THIS POINT...MODELS REALLY START TO LOSE
AGREEMENT...SO WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE GIVEN ALL BLEND
SOLUTIONS.
THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD START TO IMPACT KENTUCKY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT WITH
ONLY CHANCE TSRA WORDING. THOUGH WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE
BETTER LIFT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME PINPOINTING ANY EXACT TIMING OF ENTRANCE OR EXIT
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD...BUT DO EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO
BE CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO IF THERE IS A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...IT WILL BE BRIEF.
A TREND WILL DEVELOP. THE SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST TO WEST
THROUGH KY...A BRIEF LULL WILL OCCUR...AND YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS TUESDAY SYSTEM CORRELATES WITH THE DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD.
USUALLY AN UPTICK IN FORCING WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM AS IT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SO OUT OF SYNC AT THIS POINT THAT NONE OF THEM
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...INSTABILITY...AND TIMING ARE ALL UP IN THE AIR
STILL AT THIS POINT UNTIL MODELS COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT. IF
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER
THE REGION...WITH CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL PUT QPF
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TUESDAY
AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAINLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT THROUGH
THE AREA INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE TIMED THESE FOR JKL AND SJS
WITH VCTS/VCSH USED AT LOZ AND SME. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE
LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IN SOME VALLEYS AND SOME PREVAILING MVFR FOG AT
MOST AIRPORT SITES FOR A TIME INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FOG
LIFTS AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FROM 12Z TO 14Z...WITH GOOD AVN WX
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STRAY STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
321 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The synoptic pattern early this morning features a persistent
upper-level ridge centered over the south-central CONUS. Several
"ridge-riding" waves were rotating around this feature, one of which
pushed through earlier this evening. Another of these waves
(currently across the western High Plains) will pass through the
region late tonight into Friday.
Convection has largely dissipated across much of the region early
this morning as a conglomeration of cold pools has shunted the
better instability well south into TN. However, the surface front
still remains across south-central KY and a few showers continue to
develop along it from time to time. Therefore, will continue with
20-30 pops into the morning hours along this front (especially since
the latest HRRR shows some shower redevelopment along the front
through the early morning hours).
The front will clear southern KY by the late morning hours, ending
the precipitation chances. Cooler and drier air will filter in
today on ENE winds, which will make it feel quite comfortable
compared to recent days. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and
lower 80s with much lower humidity values.
Uncertainty begins to creep into the forecast tonight into Friday,
as guidance is struggling a bit with the placement of the next
approaching trough rounding the upper-level ridge. The
GEM/ECMWF/NAM all depict precipitation returning back north into
southern KY as forcing from this wave overspreads the area and the
surface front lifts back north. The GFS is a much drier solution,
keeping the precip southwest of the CWA. Given the effective
boundary is currently being driven south by ongoing convection and
the fact that convection will likely redevelop today/tonight across
portions of western TN, struggle to believe the front will be able
to lift back to the north all that much. Guidance typically
overdoes the northern extent of convection in these summer patterns,
and think that is likely the case here. Therefore, will leave only
slight chance to chance wording in southern KY late tonight into
Friday, favoring the drier GFS solution.
Lows tonight will vary from the middle 50s across the Northern
Bluegrass (given partly cloudy skies and light winds) to the middle
60s across southern KY where clouds will be more likely. Highs on
Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, likely a couple
degrees warmer than expected highs today.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Shortwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure centered over Lake
Erie should make for a pleasant start to the weekend, and keep the
precip mostly suppressed to our south and west over the Tennessee
Valley. Without the Gulf open for business, expect temps just on the
low end of climo and dewpoints just either side of 60. This is the
time of year when GFS MOS max temps end up 3-4 degrees warmer than
NAM MOS across the board, and favoring the NAM is usually the way to
go.
Forecast confidence decreases substantially as we head into next
week as the pattern becomes fairly progressive. GFS and ECMWF agree
on a decent mid-level wave crossing the Ohio Valley Sunday, which
supports the highest POPs Sat night/Sunday, but it does have the
look of convective feedback. Therefore will limit POP to high-end
chance.
Pattern remains progressive through the rest of the long term, with
generally weak ridging over the Southwest, and weak trofiness over
most of the eastern CONUS. Periodic disturbances will traverse the
area and keep the weather a bit unsettled, but available moisture
will be the limiting factor. Minimal change to the going forecast
with 20-30 POPs throughout, and temps just either side of normal.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The advertised surface cold front continues to sag south tonight,
and it currently bisects central KY. This means that convection has
ended at KSDF and KLEX. Additional convection continues to develop
along this front and may impact KBWG, but will wait until just
before TAF issuance to decide whether to include any precip mention
there as this convection may pass just to the west of the terminal.
Otherwise, post-frontal low cigs continue to slide south across
southern IN. These cigs will be right around fuel-alternate
thresholds, in the FL015-FL025 range. Could also see some patchy
light fog at KLEX and KBWG, but the winds staying up and the
widespread cloud cover should help keep vsbys mainly VFR.
Otherwise, Thursday will be a low-impact aviation day with VFR
conditions expected. Winds will be out of the ENE, with any lower
cigs scattering out by the mid-morning hours.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
416 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TODAY AND CROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE PLACEMENT OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREAS OF FOG
A NUISANCE DOWNEAST AND ON THE COAST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE RESIDE. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR DID QUITE WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP AS DID THE CANADIAN GEM. THIS FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIFTING OUT THE CWA TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVE
OUT OF THE NERN US AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE COOLING DOWN AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NAM SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE GFS POINT TO
THE POTENTIAL OF TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE W AND NW AREAS. SB/MUCAPE PROGGED TO HIT 250 J/KG AND TOTAL
TOTALS HIT AROUND 50 W/KIS IN THE UPPER 20S. PLUS THERE WILL BE
SOME FORCING TO TRIGGER THINGS. SMALL HAIL COULD BE A RISK IF THE
LATER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS TREND. DECIDED TO CARRY TSTMS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BUT LEFT OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING ATTM.
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY. FURTHER E AND S, A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN/SHOWERS AS THE LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS SEEING 70F IF THE SUN DECIDES TO
PEEK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA W/THE RISK OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.
QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS DATABASE
WHICH SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
DOWNEAST AREAS W/THE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SB CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO BE 500-1000J/KG WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S. FREEZING
LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OF THE
POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDED ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. FOG WILL BE A ISSUE FOR KBGR & KBHB THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO GO VFR ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO IFR EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT W/FOG AND RAIN.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED BUT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
SWELL AS THE PERIODS CONTINUE TO BE 8-10 SECONDS. THE E SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SOME AND DECIDED TO
BRING THE SWELL UP TO A RANGE OF 4-5 FT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT NW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS INTO
NW ONTARIO. UPSTREAM...A TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH MONTANA.
AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH PROMINENT
LAKE BREEZES. DIURNAL CU HAD DEVELOP WELL INLAND ALONG THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE DIURNAL CU FADE...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY
MOVE THROUGH THE E HALF OF UPPER MI...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
NAM/GFS 500-300 MB RH FCST. OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN TO 0.35 TO
0.50 INCH. EXPECT MIN READINGS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY AROUND 40 INLAND. SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
FROM WATERSMEET TO IRON RIVER...AMASA AND REPUBLIC MAY SEE READINGS
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND THAT A WEAK SHRTWV MAY MOVE INTO W UPPER MI BY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FAR WEST TO PUSH ML DEWPOINTS INTO
THE LOWER 50S WITH RESULTING MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 400-800 J/KG
RANGE. SO...SOME SOME SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE REST
OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MILD/DRY DAY WITH INLAND TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE LAKE BREEZES KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM IS EXPECTED WITH JUST A COUPLE CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES TRACKS ENE BEFORE GRADUALLY
STALLING OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD...A COUPLE
SUBTLE FEATURES COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
HEATING SUPPORT. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.
THEN...A DECAYING SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...AND WITH RATHER DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO MUCH OF THE
COLUMN...LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. BEST MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 100KT UPPER
JET TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS REACHES THE WESTERN CWA. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A BIT
IN QUESTION AS MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY
LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL ACROSS THE AREA...SO ONLY MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END
TO RAIN AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
WEST HALF SHOULD END UP WITH FAIRLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH PWAT VALUES AS LOW OF 0.3 INCH ACROSS THE WEST
HALF...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWERED TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FROST...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT
TO HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LOWER TEMPS ANY FARTHER ATTM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY AND KEEP
CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO ONLY SOME
INCREASED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THEN...A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOOKS TO BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRA OVER WRN
UPPER MI THIS AFTN. THIS IS REFLECTED AT KIWD WITH VCSH IN THE
MID/LATE AFTN HRS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS E TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
AND GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THU. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SE
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND SAT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SRLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN NRLY WINDS. HIGH PRES WILL AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY. OVERALL...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW 20KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
418 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
Active morning of weather across area this morning. Training
convection extending from the Pittsburg, KS/Joplin, MO area
southeastward toward Branson has produced numerous reports of
hail and very heavy rainfall. Additional isolated storms have
redeveloped over south central Missouri.
Main forecast focus is the developing severe thunderstorm complex
over central Kansas. This system is quickly getting its act
together this morning and will continue to accelerate east,
closely following forward propagating system motion vectors
(currently at 50-60kt to the east southeast).
This convective complex will continue to move into a favorable
environment. There is no lack of thermo ahead of this system with
MUCAPE around/above 2000 J/kg from areas along and south of Nevada
to West Plains. MUCAPE will actually increase a bit this morning,
with the RUC suggesting around 3000 J/kg by the mid/late morning
hours. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50 kt will ensure continued storm
organization. While low level shear is a bit light/disorganized,
low level theta-e differences in the mid/upper 20s C are suggested
by the short term models which indicates good wind potential.
The weak low level shear does keep 0-3km shear vectors in the
20-25kt range (oriented west to east). This is not ideal for
mesovortex production, but it is still plausible to see
mesovorticies with any west to east surges embedded within the
line.
Locations most prone to seeing this squall line will be areas
(roughly) along and south of Nevada to West Plains. Timing wise,
it looks like this system will enter the western portions of the
outlook area by 8 AM, with a progressive acceleration to the east
through the morning hours. Current estimates place the line around
the highway 65 corridor around 10 AM, south central MO by noon.
These will definitely need to be revised as this system matures
and accelerates.
Hazards...the biggest risk will be wind gusts to 70mph. Localized
areas of stronger winds are possible, especially considering the
increase in low level theta-e differences. Hail will likely be
tough to come by, but a few stones to quarter size are possible.
At this point the tornado risk is on the low side given expected
0-3km shear vector orientation and strength. That said, we do have
multiple boundaries in place and line interactions are possible.
As a result, will continue with a few tornadoes possible.
Additional activity is expected tonight as another MCS looks to
develop from convection refiring over KS/OK. This will pose yet
another wind risk. If this does materialize as expected, a flash
flood watch will need to be considered.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
As has been advertised, Friday through (at least) the weekend will
feature a very active weather pattern. Shortwaves will pass
through a largely zonal flow in periodic fashion. 00z suite of
model agrees with the overall pattern in general. The devil, of
course, will be in the mesoscale details with respect to exact
positioning of the synoptic scale front and shear/instability
profiles.
Bottom line timing from 00z models. Scattered showers/storms are
expected to redevelop during the heat of the day Friday. A
convective complex passage Saturday (originating from the central
Plains). Additional thunderstorm complexes are possible Saturday
night into Sunday, although trust in details at this juncture is
low.
Heading into next week, the ECMWF and GEM produce a cutoff low
over the Midwest during the first half of the week. This will keep
our area unsettled with additional rainfall possible. The GFS is
an outlier keeping the pattern progressive. The current forecast
sides with the cutoff low. Temperatures will remain seasonable
from Friday through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A frontal boundary is
currently laid out from west to east across southern Missouri this
evening and will not move much through the overnight hours. The
front interacting with a unstable airmass is resulting in storms
develop and moving east along the front. This will continue into
the overnight hours with the storms sagging south through the
night. Brief MVFR conditions, frequent lighting, and brief heavy
rainfall will occur in these storms overnight. Some brief gusty
winds and dime size hail will be possible in a few of the stronger
storms.
Additional thunderstorms are currently developing across
northeastern Colorado. These storms will develop into a line of
storms and race across Kansas tonight and start pushing into
southwestern Missouri early Thursday morning. A very unstable
airmass will remain in place overnight and very strong winds will
be possible with this line of storms. MVFR to IFR conditions will
occur within this line briefly.
Additional storms may then develop Thursday afternoon, but will
have to see how much cloud cover and how much the area is worked
over by the morning convection before having higher confidence in
storms developing Thursday afternoon.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1228 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE TSTM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS BRUSHING WRN NEB. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
TRIGGERING THE TSTM COMPLEXES WILL OCCASIONALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS NCNTL NEB HOWEVER THIS
RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
RAIN AND OR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS NEXT
TUESDAY WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED TO DROP WATCH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A STORMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. NEXT WAVE IS CROSSING THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND FIRING STORMS OUT IN
WYOMING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS EVENING
AS IT DRIFTS EAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONGEAL INTO AN MCS
THAT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA/NEB WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO
USHER IN BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PRECIP WATER AN INCH
TO 1.25 INCHES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1K J/KG WILL BE AIDED
BY THE NOSE OF A 25 KT LL JET TO HELP SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY. ALL IN
ALL THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.
A SECOND WAVE OVER N CENTRAL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA. THE
MCS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IF NOT EXITING INTO KS. BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS LIKELY.
STILL HAVING A COOL AIRMASS AND WITH MORNING CLOUDS...HIGHS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TANDEM UPPER LEVEL COLD POOLS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT
NRN STREAM ENERGY THRU THE HIGH PLAINS. DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF
THESE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE WRN ZONES WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THRU THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL POSITION THE BEST RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND INTO
WYOMING. THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
PROVIDING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
KS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY TABLE SCRAPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WRN
AND NCNTL NEB AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES ARE CONCERNED.
BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
HOLDING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE 60S. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND
OF THE GFS...SREF...NAM AND ECM FOR POPS. THE GEM WAS THE EASTERN
MOST SOLN AND APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLN GIVEN THE PATTERN
FAVORING HIGH PLAINS STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE RAP MODEL GIVES INSIGHT
TO THIS BIAS AS IT IS WEST OF THE NAM SOLN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS MCS
FCST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FCST AREA ACROSS KS AND ERN COLO. THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD KEEP THE FCST AREA GENERALLY COOL
AND STABLE AT THE SFC. SO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS 5 PERCENT OR
LESS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SWRN
NEB WOULD BE THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN WY/ERN COLO AND MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A FAIRLY
DECENT NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NRN NEB SUNDAY. THE GEM
WAS WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS CHANCE OF RAIN. WINDS ALOFT RELATIVE
TO THE INSTABILITY IN THE GFS AND ECM SOLNS APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NEB.
ANOTHER PERHAPS MORE SUBSTANTIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEAR IN THE GFS AND ECM INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KT
AND THE GFS SHOWS THE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER BETWEEN 30 AND 40 WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -10C. THE ECM SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1500J/KG AND
THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...WELL BELOW
YESTERDAYS MEGA-SEVERE EVENT. STILL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY OR FEATURES ISOLATED POPS.
SOME VERY COOL AIR WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA. H700MB TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR 0C ACROSS NRN NEB SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS SUNDAY TO
THE 60S WITH LOW IN THE 40S IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER...HEIGHTS
ALOFT RISE AND MOISTURE RETURNS IN PREPARATION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS SOME SEVERE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS. SOME SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA IS POSSIBLE 0512Z AS MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHES THROUGH FROM
WYOMING. SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH CEILINGS INTO MVFR CATEGORIES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
RECENT RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN
CONTINUES TO CAUSE RISES TO THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IN COLORADO.
LATEST CALCULATIONS ARE RESULTING IN RISES OF THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TO AROUND BANK FULL EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER AREA WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE PEAK FLOW. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING THE CREST TO ROSCOE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE SOUTH PLATTE AT NORTH PLATTE WILL ALSO BE SEEING A
NOTICEABLE RISE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1157 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE TSTM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS BRUSHING WRN NEB. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
TRIGGERING THE TSTM COMPLEXES WILL OCCASIONALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS NCNTL NEB HOWEVER THIS
RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
RAIN AND OR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS NEXT
TUESDAY WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED TO DROP WATCH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A STORMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. NEXT WAVE IS CROSSING THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND FIRING STORMS OUT IN
WYOMING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS EVENING
AS IT DRIFTS EAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONGEAL INTO AN MCS
THAT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA/NEB WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO
USHER IN BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PRECIP WATER AN INCH
TO 1.25 INCHES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1K J/KG WILL BE AIDED
BY THE NOSE OF A 25 KT LL JET TO HELP SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY. ALL IN
ALL THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.
A SECOND WAVE OVER N CENTRAL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA. THE
MCS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IF NOT EXITING INTO KS. BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS LIKELY.
STILL HAVING A COOL AIRMASS AND WITH MORNING CLOUDS...HIGHS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TANDEM UPPER LEVEL COLD POOLS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT
NRN STREAM ENERGY THRU THE HIGH PLAINS. DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF
THESE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE WRN ZONES WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THRU THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL POSITION THE BEST RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND INTO
WYOMING. THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
PROVIDING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
KS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY TABLE SCRAPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WRN
AND NCNTL NEB AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES ARE CONCERNED.
BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
HOLDING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE 60S. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND
OF THE GFS...SREF...NAM AND ECM FOR POPS. THE GEM WAS THE EASTERN
MOST SOLN AND APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLN GIVEN THE PATTERN
FAVORING HIGH PLAINS STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE RAP MODEL GIVES INSIGHT
TO THIS BIAS AS IT IS WEST OF THE NAM SOLN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS MCS
FCST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FCST AREA ACROSS KS AND ERN COLO. THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD KEEP THE FCST AREA GENERALLY COOL
AND STABLE AT THE SFC. SO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS 5 PERCENT OR
LESS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SWRN
NEB WOULD BE THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN WY/ERN COLO AND MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A FAIRLY
DECENT NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NRN NEB SUNDAY. THE GEM
WAS WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS CHANCE OF RAIN. WINDS ALOFT RELATIVE
TO THE INSTABILITY IN THE GFS AND ECM SOLNS APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NEB.
ANOTHER PERHAPS MORE SUBSTANTIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEAR IN THE GFS AND ECM INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KT
AND THE GFS SHOWS THE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER BETWEEN 30 AND 40 WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -10C. THE ECM SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1500J/KG AND
THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...WELL BELOW
YESTERDAYS MEGA-SEVERE EVENT. STILL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY OR FEATURES ISOLATED POPS.
SOME VERY COOL AIR WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA. H700MB TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR 0C ACROSS NRN NEB SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS SUNDAY TO
THE 60S WITH LOW IN THE 40S IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER...HEIGHTS
ALOFT RISE AND MOISTURE RETURNS IN PREPARATION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
644 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF EAST AROUND 30KTS INTO
THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS. AS THE STORMS PROGRESS EAST SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE STORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
RECENT RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN
CONTINUES TO CAUSE RISES TO THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IN COLORADO.
LATEST CALCULATIONS ARE RESULTING IN RISES OF THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TO AROUND BANK FULL EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER AREA WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE PEAK FLOW. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING THE CREST TO ROSCOE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE SOUTH PLATTE AT NORTH PLATTE WILL ALSO BE SEEING A
NOTICEABLE RISE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA TODAY WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
BOTH DAYS...ALONG COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S
TO POSSIBLY NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT VERY WELL FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS THINKING WITH EARLY MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BTV CWA IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND A SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTH TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE DELMARVA REGION ALONG
A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH STAYS SOUTH AND WILL HAVE LIMITED
IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORNING SHOWERS
PUSHING THROUGH THE SPRINGFIELD VT AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTL BORDER PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VT. LATEST RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MEAGER SURFACE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG...SO REALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDER BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO. WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE`LL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AS IT
SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGER. LOWS WILL
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...BUT COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. SHOWERS POP UP AGAIN MID-DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE TO MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND MOISTURE
AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH MORE SO ON THE NORTHERN
GREENS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY THOUGH A TAD WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S FOR SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...DESPITE MODEST DIFFERENCES HERE AND
THERE...MAIN THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY...TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. MOST
PROBLEMATIC CONTINUES TO BE THE GLOBAL MODELS` HANDLING OF
EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SAT/SUN
TIME FRAME...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS FEATURE EVOLVES IN THE
MEAN WSW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SEVERAL BULLSEYES
IN PRECIPITATION AND ATMOSPHERIC BUOYANCY ALONG THE FEATURES TRACK
SUGGEST CONTINUED FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ULTIMATELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON TIMING/SPEED
ISSUES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN LINE
WITH THE GEFS AND HPC APPEARS THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...SUNDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST/WARMEST DAY WITH
ALL SPOTS INTO THE 80S AS 18Z BLENDED 925 MB TEMPS AVERAGE AROUND
20C. AS AFOREMENTIONED MIDWESTERN ENERGY AND GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH TRACK EAST...INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER APPEAR REASONABLE BY MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK TOWARD SEASONAL EARLY JUNE NORMS. BY MID
WEEK...IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SCT/BKN VFR CIGS FROM 050-090 AGL EXPECTED
THROUGH 14Z WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED UNDER LIGHT WINDS.
AFTER 14Z...SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT MAIN THEME WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
DRY WEATHER. SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AFTER 00Z AS WINDS ABATE. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIGS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY..
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
SCT/BKN CIGS. COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION BUT OVERALL THEME IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z MONDAY ONWARD...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE. MAINLY VFR BUT SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 744 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE CEILOMETER AT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND (KRUT)-SOUTHERN
VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN OUT OF SERVICE SINCE MAY 29TH AT
0215Z. THUS...THIS SITE IS NOT REPORTING SKY COVER AT THIS TIME.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE
FAA AOCC THAT PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO FIX THE CEILOMETER...AND HAVE
INFORMED US OF A SCHEDULED OUTAGE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1430-1900
LOCAL TIME ON THURSDAY FOR THE CEILOMETER FIX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
145 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH VERY WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM WEDNESDAY...STILL SOME TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE POPS FOR
THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF THU. THIS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST UPSTREAM...1 TO 2 CWA LENGTHS AWAY...
AND BLENDING IN THE AVAILABLE 00Z MODEL DATA. SUBSIDENCE STILL
KEEPING CONVECTION AT BAY ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT...WEAK
DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCC/MCS WILL PUSH TO AND
PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FA DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE PRE-DAWN
THU HOURS. WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING THE FA FROM THE
NW...THE REMNANT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND OUTFLOWS FROM
CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM...THE COMBINED SFC FEATURES WITH
DYNAMICS ALOFT...ALBEIT WEAK...WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY PRIOR TO SUNRISE THU. LATEST MODEL SREF
RUNS CONFIRM THIS PROBABILITY...WITH LATEST HRRR SHOWING EVEN SFC
BASED INSTABILITY AVBL TO FEED THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION DURING THE
PRE-DAWN THU HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LIKELY OBSERVE WIDESPREAD
70 DEGREE LOWS WITH ONLY ISOLATED UPPER 60S PER LATEST AVBL MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE. SW WINDS TO REMAIN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PREVENTING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE DROP OFF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CAROLINAS ARE CAUGHT BETWEEN A
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOT
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE PUSHED
TEMPS INTO THE 90S INLAND FROM THE BEACHES TODAY. DESPITE A GOOD
DEAL OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED TO DEEP
CONVECTION BY A LAYER OF WARM DRY AIR BETWEEN 825 MB (THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER) AND 700 MB. THIS IS WHERE THE CUMULUS STARTS TO
LOOK RAGGED. CHANCES FOR A DAYTIME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ARE
PRETTY SMALL AS A RESULT.
THIS EVENING A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL REACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS IS THE REMNANT OF LAST
NIGHT`S POWERFUL MCS ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI...BUT WILL HAVE AN
UPHILL BATTLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
CLOUDINESS HERE. THIS IS DUE TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
850-500 MB LAYER. THIS LAYER IS SHOWN BY ALL 12Z MODELS TO GRADUALLY
MOISTEN OVERNIGHT VIA WESTERLY WINDS FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF A LATE
NIGHT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FLORENCE TO WHITEVILLE TO WILMINGTON. THESE PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.
WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT (AT LEAST 25 KT
AT 1000 FT AGL) AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS CLOUD COVER LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY WARM...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO
THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. THIS IS 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
WOULD BE TYPICAL FOR MID JULY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...H5 SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED OVER TX AND
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DIRECT HARD-TO-TIME...GENERALLY
WEAK... IMPULSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY THU. THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION
WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENTLY SPC
DEPICTS SMALL PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THU. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR LATER THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE...WITH LESS AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT THU...AND WITH THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH INTO SC FRI RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC ZONES). CUT BACK ON MAX TEMPERATURES BY A
CATEGORY OR TWO FOR THU WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT THUS FRI/S HIGHS ONLY A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN THU. OTHERWISE...BREEZY S-SW WINDS THURSDAY
GIVEN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BEFORE WARM BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WAVERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
WHILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY SINCE IT GETS IMPEDED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE ELONGATED EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE SC ZONES. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND FORECAST PROFILES ARE UNANIMOUS IN DROPPING PWATS BELOW
1 INCH WITH LITTLE-TO-NO SATURATED LAYERS WITHIN THE COLUMN. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL DROP POP TO
SILENT SINCE COVERAGE OF 0.01 QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANYTHING.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE AROUND TO RIGHT ABOVE CLIMO...MID/UPR
80S FOR HIGHS AND MID/UPR 60S FOR LOWS.
MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY FLAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO RETURN INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING TSTM CHANCES
DURING THE AFTN...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AIDED BY A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH AT
THE SAME TIME THAT 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CLIMB ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE IT TO THE
LOCAL AREA. FOR THIS REASON WILL SHOW CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH CHC POP EACH DAY FOR
DIURNAL TSTMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AFTER 16Z WHEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...CAPABLE OF REDUCING VSBYS/CIGS TO SUB
VFR LEVELS.
WINDS WILL BE SW NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SW AFTER DAYBREAK...BECOMING GUSTY UP
TO 22 KT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED AROUND 16Z. THIS COULD BE EVEN LATER IF MORNING CLOUDS DO
NOT THIN AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED. WILL INDICATE VCTS GIVEN
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING. FAVORED AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ALONG A PIEDMONT TROUGH
KFLO/KLBT. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF VCTS LATE IN THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT N OF KLBT/KILM
AND MOVE SE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES WITH THE
FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG ACROSS THE ILM LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO
RESULT IN A 210-240 DEGREE RANGE FOR WIND DIRECTIONS. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT WITH 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. LATEST 41110 BUOY HAS
INDICATED A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT RISE IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS...TO 3 TO 4
FT...SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST OMR...OTHER MARINE
REPORTS...INDICATE VERY ACTIVE 10-20 KT WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING. WITH ALL THIS SAID...HAVE
RECONFIGURED THE START TIME OF THE SCA TO AN EARLIER TIME...600
AM EDT THURSDAY. MWW AND HWO HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE LIES ALONG 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AS FAR WEST AS THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. A WEST-SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WIND NORTH OF THIS
RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE CAROLINAS. TYPICALLY THIS PATTERN YIELDS
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS PLUS WHATEVER SEABREEZE CIRCULATION
MAY EXIST. HOWEVER IN THIS CASE WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS LOW WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF EASTERLY 11-12
SECOND SWELL. LOOK FOR SEAS TO BUILD BY 1-2 FEET OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THURSDAY IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE SC WATERS DURING
FRIDAY PRIOR TO STALLING. THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS FROM SURF CITY TO SOUTH SANTEE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
WATERS DURING SATURDAY...CREATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF E/NE WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT AT SPEEDS ONLY AROUND 10 KTS. LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SE AND THEN
SOUTH...BUT STILL WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. ALTHOUGH A 9 SEC
EASTERLY SWELL WILL EXIST IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE PRIMARILY FORMED THROUGH A 4-5 SEC
WIND CHOP FROM THE EAST...BECOMING SOUTH ON MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...REGARDLESS OF PRIMARY WAVE
DIRECTION.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
219 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT A
DRYING TREND LATER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING FAIR/DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM MODERATE RAFL WILL SPREAD ACRS THE NRN
2/3RDS OF THE CWA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS AREA OF STEADY
RAIN IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF SFC LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER
THE WV/MD PANHANDLE. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EWD JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE INTO THE NRN DELMARVA/SRN NJ BY
12Z...THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES A MORE SHOWERY NATURE TO THE PCPN
PATTERN OVER THE SRN TIER ZONES WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TSTM CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY +RA. EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT THE CWA
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH CLEARING LINE MOVG SEWD AS PUSH OF
MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PCPN IS BASICALLY OVER BY 15Z AS COOLER/DRIER NW FLOW ARRIVES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LIFTING UP THE NE COAST. CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD SHWR LATER THIS EVE INTO TNT OVER THE NERN ZONES AS THE
UPPER TROF AXIS/850MB THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY SO REMOVED MENTION OF
PCPN. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OH VLY AT 12Z FRI WILL
MAINTAIN FAIR/DRY WX INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING WARMTH/HUMIDITY COMBINED
WITH APPROACH OF MID-UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUGGESTING UNSETTLED CONDS FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO TUES. GFS
A BIT STRONGER THAN THE EC WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH ON
MON...SO NUDGED POPS UP A BIT THERE.
POSS FOR SCT TSTMS CONTINUES LATE WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY DRY NORTH.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVG FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PRODUCE RAIN
AND REDUCED CIGS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM OBS AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA INDICATE THE WORST FLYING
CONDS WILL BE CLOSEST TO SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. KJST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN UNDER AN IFR/LIFR CIG THRU DAWN DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AT IT/S RIDGETOP LOCATION. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT A
PRE-DAWN PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT THE OTHER SOUTHERN PA
AIRFIELDS...INCLUDING KAOO/KMDT/KLNS. RADAR AT 05Z SHOWS A CLUSTER
OF TSRA NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER ARND KCBE. AS SFC LOW MOVES
EAST...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSRA AFFECTING KLNS ARND 09Z.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT PENNSYLVANIA ARND 12Z...BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN AND A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS...AS A MUCH DRIER
NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN LATER
TODAY WILL BE THE WGUSTS...WHICH SHOULD BE ARND 20KTS BASED ON
LATEST BUFKIT OUTPUT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GRT LKS THIS EVENING...CAUSING THE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE SOUTH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
345 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
AT 3 AM...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE THERE IS A MORE IMPRESSIVE LINE OF
STORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS. CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THAT THIS LINE
WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS THIS MORNING. AS IT
DOES...IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 70 TO 90 MPH WINDS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN CRANBERRY
BOGS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IN BOTH THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO
RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH LONE ROCK AND BOSCOBEL ARE
REPORTING DENSE FOG. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS FOG...HAVE
OPTED TO HANDLE THIS FOG THROUGH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN
05.12Z AND 05.14Z.
FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THE GFS...ECMWF...
ARW...AND NMM SUGGEST THAT A WEAK TO MODERATE 600 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES.
THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS TROUGH...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERING OPINIONS
ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND
THIS AFFECTS HOW THE MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. OVERALL THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF A CHARLES CITY IOWA TO
NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...THE GFS...ARW...AND NMM HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA DRY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE THEIR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FINALLY...
THE NAM HAS ITS PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE OVERALL THOUGHT WAS TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND MESO MODELS AND GO
DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
ON FRIDAY...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE STILL SHOWING UP IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...
DECIDED TO KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TROUGH
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WISCONSIN. WITH THERE STILL BEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES CONFINED MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
WITH THERE BEING QUITE A BIT OF TIMING CONSISTENCY ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAISED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP
INTO THE 55 TO 64 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
LESS THAN 30 KNOTS...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ITS
PASSAGE.
ON SUNDAY...CONSIDERED TAKING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER THE 05.00Z ECMWF IS HOLDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA. AS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...IT KEEPS A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY. DUE TO
THIS POSSIBILITY KEPT A 15 TO 24 PERCENT PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
IN THE FORECAST.
LIKE YESTERDAY...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE REGION. DUE TO THIS REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THIS TIME PERIOD.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THEIR TIMING OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THIS...JUST STAYED WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. 05.04Z
OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE A 7 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT
KLSE AND 9 DEGREES AT KRST. GIVEN THE SHORT NIGHTS...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE FOG WILL BE ABLE TO FORM...OR IF IT DOES...THAT IT WILL
LAST FOR VERY LONG. IN ADDITION...THE 05.02Z RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT SATURATION WILL NOT OCCUR WHILE THE 05.00Z NAM STILL SHOWS
THAT IT WILL. PLAN TO STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECASTS AND SHOW
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KLSE IN SOME FOG BUT DELAYED
THE ONSET JUST A LITTLE BIT. WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT
OF WYOMING AND MONTANA...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
PRODUCING SOME RAIN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE TIMING
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SO PUSHED THE
VCSH BACK TO 06.00Z AT KRST AND ADDED A VCSH AT 06.03Z FOR KLSE.
THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO IF
THE SHOWERS DEVELOP WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TO OCCUR. SOME ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD BE IN PLACE SO A RUMBLE OR TWO
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
WABASHA REMAINS THE ONLY SPOT FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS
RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAST WEEKEND MAKES IT
DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THIS TIME...IT IS FORECAST TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE ON MONDAY JUNE 9TH AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
JUNE 11TH. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK
WHICH COULD HELP KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IS WITH VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL
IN WISCONSIN TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY
DRIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. CU FIELD WITH SOME VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH AS A SURFACE RIDGE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT SOME
VERY SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG COULD FORM IN LOW LYING/VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE 04.17Z RAP KEEPS DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S OVERNIGHT...SO DO NOT THINK THAT THERE IS MUCH CONCERN FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP LOW ENOUGH IN THE BOGS TO CREATE SOME FROST
OVERNIGHT. IF THE CORE OF THE RIDGE WAS GOING TO BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...THEN MAYBE...BUT IT STAYS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
AS THE RIDGE TRACKS TO THE EAST...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER TOMORROW BRINGING LOW
LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. A CORRIDOR OF
1000-2000J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
FORM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA WITH COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH WIND SHEAR/INSTABILITY STAYING ON THE
LOW SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
AFTER THIS SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL END AS A BROAD TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE MORE
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY FORMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. 04.12Z
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH LITTLE TO NO
WIND SHEAR IN THE EFFECTIVE LAYER. SO AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THIS CONVECTION. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST BETWEEN HOW FAST/WIDESPREAD THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF
SPINS UP A DEEP SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE MAIN CROSS OVER BETWEEN THE MODELS APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY
EVENING...SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR
THAT PERIOD.
RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FROM THE EAST FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVES IN ON MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE DRY
WITH A FEW SHOTS OF GETTING SOME RAIN...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY ON THE SEASONAL SIDE
THROUGHOUT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. 05.04Z
OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE A 7 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT
KLSE AND 9 DEGREES AT KRST. GIVEN THE SHORT NIGHTS...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE FOG WILL BE ABLE TO FORM...OR IF IT DOES...THAT IT WILL
LAST FOR VERY LONG. IN ADDITION...THE 05.02Z RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT SATURATION WILL NOT OCCUR WHILE THE 05.00Z NAM STILL SHOWS
THAT IT WILL. PLAN TO STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECASTS AND SHOW
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KLSE IN SOME FOG BUT DELAYED
THE ONSET JUST A LITTLE BIT. WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT
OF WYOMING AND MONTANA...THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
PRODUCING SOME RAIN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE TIMING
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SO PUSHED THE
VCSH BACK TO 06.00Z AT KRST AND ADDED A VCSH AT 06.03Z FOR KLSE.
THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO IF
THE SHOWERS DEVELOP WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TO OCCUR. SOME ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD BE IN PLACE SO A RUMBLE OR TWO
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
WABASHA REMAINS THE ONLY SPOT FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS
RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLIER THIS WEEK MAKES IT
DOWN THE RIVER. A FEW SHOTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK WHICH COULD HELP KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1147 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN AS THE FRONT HAS SWEPT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. STILL COULD SEE SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THO. NO LONGER ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER...SO CANCELLED THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT FOR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DID HAVE SOME REPORTS OF
MINOR STREET FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF ALLIANCE WHERE
HEAVY RAIN COMBINED WITH HAIL CLOGGING THE STREET DRAINS. DID HAVE
TO ISSUE A URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN UNTIL 1 AM. OTHERWISE...DID OPT TO ADD IN
SOME PATCHY FOG TO AREAS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL...WHICH THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS.
CONVECTION LOOKS WEAKER FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED
TO LARAMIE AND MAYBE KIMBALL COUNTIES.
ISSUED AT 646 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
LATEST SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN WYOMING (JUST SOUTH OF BORDEAUX) AND THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (JUST NORTH OF SCOTTSBLUFF). COULD SEE SOME
HIGH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALSO TRIGGER SOME
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS FAIRLY LOW IN THE
LOWER 40S...AND SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WE MAY SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
LINING UP EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL ALSO MOST LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS
JUMP THIS EVENING AFTER THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH MINIMAL CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES.
INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD PUSH 40 TO
50 KTS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. 18Z LAPS DATA SHOWING UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE IN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS 1000-1500 K/KG HIGHER THAN THE
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. NOT SURE THE LAPS DATA IS 100 PERCENT
ACCURATE BUT GOING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MESO ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE WOULD MEAN VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 16Z HRRR RUN OF COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISCRETE
CONVECTION INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. AT ANY RATE...THERE IS AT LEAST A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE
CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO LATE
TONIGHT NEAR THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED BY
LATE THIS EVENING WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT...AND THAT BEING
MAINLY HAIL.
AIR MASS SHOULD BE STABLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW. CAP
SHOULD BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPPING. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW...BUT THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY BE TO REMOVE THE
CHANCES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACTUALLY THE
HIGHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TOMORROW EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. STRONG THETAE
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
NAM IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE STRONGEST POSITIVE THETAE THAN
THE GFS. NOT SURE WHICH TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING
OF THESE FEATURES. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS WOULD BE THE CASE...THEN WE MAY SEE
THE CONVECTION DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY. WE DID BUMP UP
POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. THIS MAY
ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON THIS DAY AS
WELL WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LIKE THE BULK OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. AFTER THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH...IT WILL TURN QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND 60S. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROF MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY HELP
STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STILL FAIRLY GOOD
SHEAR IN PLACE. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO YIELD TO LOWER
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
AFTER THE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RIDGING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW. AS A
RESULT...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON MONDAY...DUE TO
GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BANK UP
AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOME AID FROM THE LEE SURFACE TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY PUSHED EAST OF THE PANHANDLE. WILL KEEP
SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WITH RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PANHANDLE AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INCLUDED TEMPO IFR VIS AROUND SUNRISE. BEST CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS ON THURS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MUCH GREATER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTER REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND
LARAMIE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER STAGES HAVE CRESTED
AND ARE FORECASTED TO RECEDE. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
SO NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOW MELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...REC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1040 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN AS THE FRONT HAS SWEPT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. STILL COULD SEE SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THO. NO LONGER ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER...SO CANCELLED THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT FOR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DID HAVE SOME REPORTS OF
MINOR STREET FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF ALLIANCE WHERE
HEAVY RAIN COMBINED WITH HAIL CLOGGING THE STREET DRAINS. DID HAVE
TO ISSUE A URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN UNTIL 1 AM. OTHERWISE...DID OPT TO ADD IN
SOME PATCHY FOG TO AREAS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL...WHICH THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS.
CONVECTION LOOKS WEAKER FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED
TO LARAMIE AND MAYBE KIMBALL COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
LATEST SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN WYOMING (JUST SOUTH OF BORDEAUX) AND THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (JUST NORTH OF SCOTTSBLUFF). COULD SEE SOME
HIGH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALSO TRIGGER SOME
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS FAIRLY LOW IN THE
LOWER 40S...AND SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WE MAY SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
LINING UP EAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL ALSO MOST LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS
JUMP THIS EVENING AFTER THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH MINIMAL CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES.
INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD PUSH 40 TO
50 KTS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. 18Z LAPS DATA SHOWING UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE IN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS 1000-1500 K/KG HIGHER THAN THE
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. NOT SURE THE LAPS DATA IS 100 PERCENT
ACCURATE BUT GOING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MESO ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE WOULD MEAN VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 16Z HRRR RUN OF COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISCRETE
CONVECTION INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. AT ANY RATE...THERE IS AT LEAST A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE
CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO LATE
TONIGHT NEAR THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED BY
LATE THIS EVENING WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT...AND THAT BEING
MAINLY HAIL.
AIR MASS SHOULD BE STABLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW. CAP
SHOULD BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPPING. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW...BUT THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY BE TO REMOVE THE
CHANCES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACTUALLY THE
HIGHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TOMORROW EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. STRONG THETAE
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
NAM IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE STRONGEST POSITIVE THETAE THAN
THE GFS. NOT SURE WHICH TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING
OF THESE FEATURES. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS WOULD BE THE CASE...THEN WE MAY SEE
THE CONVECTION DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY. WE DID BUMP UP
POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. THIS MAY
ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON THIS DAY AS
WELL WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LIKE THE BULK OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. AFTER THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH...IT WILL TURN QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND 60S. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROF MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY HELP
STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STILL FAIRLY GOOD
SHEAR IN PLACE. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO YIELD TO LOWER
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
AFTER THE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RIDGING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW. AS A
RESULT...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON MONDAY...DUE TO
GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BANK UP
AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOME AID FROM THE LEE SURFACE TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MUCH GREATER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTER REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND
LARAMIE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER STAGES HAVE CRESTED
AND ARE FORECASTED TO RECEDE. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
SO NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOW MELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...REC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1150 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
...POTENTIAL FOR COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO IMPACT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING THEN TRACK FURTHER
SOUTHEAST...
.UPDATE...
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATE
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE MORNING PRECIP LEFTOVERS...THERE LOOKS TO BE LESS
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
NOT EXTENDED AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. THE MAIN THREAT
LOOKS TO BE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN INTENSE MCC CURRENTLY ACROSS
MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND PROGGED TO REACH NW GA BY ABOUT 23Z THIS
EVENING /GIVEN THE TIMING TOOL/. THE ENVIRONMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWARD TURN WHICH MAY PEG WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BE
LIKELY TO HIGH END CHANCE RAMPING UP IN WESTERN PORTIONS FOR THIS
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
CLOUD COVER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED TEMPS IN NORTHWEST GA SO
BUMPED DAYTIME MAX VALUES DOWN CONSIDERABLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SET TO IMPACT THE CWA. CURRENTLY WATCHING
MCS TRACK THROUGH TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TN REMAIN
ROBUST...BOWING SEGMENT APPROACHING NORTHWEST GEORGIA IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. AS THIS COMPLEX PUSHES INTO THE STATE...EXPECT
IT TO SPREAD A FEW STRONG STORMS INTO NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE 4-8AM...WITH THE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING TO MAINLY SHOWERS THEREAFTER. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS
HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...WITH LOCAL
WRF...NMM...AND ARW RIDDLED WITH TIMING AND POSITION ISSUES.
OVERALL THE HRRR HAS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SO HAVE PARALLELED ITS SOLUTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BE DICTATED BY HOW THE MORNING
WEATHER EVOLVES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CLOUD COVER
FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY COULD ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...
AND COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS ACROSS
MIDDLE GEORGIA. WITH MODELED MLCAPE OF 2000+ J/KG AND MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE
BETWEEN NOON AND MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE STATE. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
JUST TO OUR WEST OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AL...BUT THE FIVE PERCENT AREA
FOR HAIL AND WIND ENCOMPASS THE MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
CWA. AREAS NORTH OF A HAMILTON TO LOUISVILLE LINE ARE PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ACTIVE PERIOD PERSISTS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY...AND HAVE CONTINUED
WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY AND INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT.
31
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR SATURDAY... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WHILE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COUPLED
WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED STORMS ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE STORMS
BECOMING STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT
PUSHES NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW PUSHING
INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY... A LINGERING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ON SUNDAY... AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. A LACK OF FRONTAL FOCUS
AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST STORMS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN... SUMMER TIME PULSE STORMS... AND REMAIN BELOW
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO AT LEAST NORTH GA ON MONDAY... THESE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...
WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY ENHANCING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT MEANDERING MAINLY JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTH BY EARLY TUESDAY AS MONDAYS
DISTURBANCE CUTS OFF OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTS OFF TO
THE NE ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THESE LATER
PERIODS... WILL SHOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS AT MINIMUM... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY
IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT COMPLEX HAVE NOW MADE IT INTO THE ATL METRO
AREA...AND HAVE TEMPO -SHRA AT NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH 13Z AND
VCSH THROUGH 14Z AS THE AREA OF RAIN DISSIPATES. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...BUT BEST TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE
AFTER 21-22Z AND CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH MVFR IN CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE WSW-WNW AT 8-12KT WITH
GUSTS TO 15-18KT TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO NW AT 6KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 90 69 89 67 / 30 40 40 30
ATLANTA 86 71 88 69 / 30 50 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 83 62 81 61 / 50 40 40 30
CARTERSVILLE 82 68 88 65 / 50 50 50 30
COLUMBUS 92 73 91 70 / 30 50 40 30
GAINESVILLE 86 69 86 67 / 40 50 40 30
MACON 92 69 91 70 / 50 50 40 30
ROME 84 68 89 66 / 60 60 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 88 68 89 66 / 30 50 40 30
VIDALIA 92 73 90 72 / 50 40 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SET TO IMPACT THE CWA. CURRENTLY WATCHING
MCS TRACK THROUGH TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TN REMAIN
ROBUST...BOWING SEGMENT APPROACHING NORTHWEST GEORGIA IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. AS THIS COMPLEX PUSHES INTO THE STATE...EXPECT
IT TO SPREAD A FEW STRONG STORMS INTO NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE 4-8AM...WITH THE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING TO MAINLY SHOWERS THEREAFTER. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS
HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...WITH LOCAL
WRF...NMM...AND ARW RIDDLED WITH TIMING AND POSITION ISSUES.
OVERALL THE HRRR HAS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SO HAVE PARALLELED ITS SOLUTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BE DICTATED BY HOW THE MORNING
WEATHER EVOLVES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CLOUD COVER
FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY COULD ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...
AND COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS ACROSS
MIDDLE GEORGIA. WITH MODELED MLCAPE OF 2000+ J/KG AND MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE
BETWEEN NOON AND MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE STATE. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
JUST TO OUR WEST OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AL...BUT THE FIVE PERCENT AREA
FOR HAIL AND WIND ENCOMPASS THE MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
CWA. AREAS NORTH OF A HAMILTON TO LOUISVILLE LINE ARE PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ACTIVE PERIOD PERSISTS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY...AND HAVE CONTINUED
WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY AND INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT.
31
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR SATURDAY... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WHILE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COUPLED
WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED STORMS ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE STORMS
BECOMING STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT
PUSHES NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW PUSHING
INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY... A LINGERING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ON SUNDAY... AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. A LACK OF FRONTAL FOCUS
AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST STORMS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN... SUMMER TIME PULSE STORMS... AND REMAIN BELOW
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO AT LEAST NORTH GA ON MONDAY... THESE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...
WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY ENHANCING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT MEANDERING MAINLY JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTH BY EARLY TUESDAY AS MONDAYS
DISTURBANCE CUTS OFF OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTS OFF TO
THE NE ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THESE LATER
PERIODS... WILL SHOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS AT MINIMUM... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY
IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT COMPLEX HAVE NOW MADE IT INTO THE ATL METRO
AREA...AND HAVE TEMPO -SHRA AT NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH 13Z AND
VCSH THROUGH 14Z AS THE AREA OF RAIN DISSIPATES. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...BUT BEST TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE
AFTER 21-22Z AND CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH MVFR IN CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE WSW-WNW AT 8-12KT WITH
GUSTS TO 15-18KT TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO NW AT 6KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 91 69 89 67 / 30 30 40 30
ATLANTA 88 71 88 69 / 50 40 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 83 62 81 61 / 50 30 40 30
CARTERSVILLE 87 68 88 65 / 60 40 40 30
COLUMBUS 92 73 91 70 / 20 30 40 30
GAINESVILLE 87 69 86 67 / 50 30 40 30
MACON 92 69 91 70 / 30 30 40 30
ROME 89 68 89 66 / 60 40 40 30
PEACHTREE CITY 89 68 89 66 / 30 40 40 30
VIDALIA 92 73 90 72 / 20 30 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
623 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE. AN AREA OF
STRATUS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FAR EASTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN ISOLATED VISIBILITY BELOW
1/4 MILE AT FREEPORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EARLY
MORNING FOG POTENTIAL AND THE POSSIBILITY LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS REACHING
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...A LOCALIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED NEAR
FREEPORT...WITH LIGHT FOG TO THE SOUTH AT MOLINE...STERLING AND PRINCETON.
WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST GRIDS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
DUE TO THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. THE 13KM RAP CURRENTLY HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...AND THE DECK IS EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH IOWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND SOME NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...THE
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST SOME STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND THEN ANOTHER CHANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE ARRIVES BUT MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED. THE GFS SEEMS WAY OVERDONE WITH QPF AS THIS MODEL
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT MOISTURE ISSUES. THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY AND
WILL FOLLOW SUIT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THIS WEEKEND...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS STRUGGLING
WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE
TO OVER 1.50 INCHES...SO RAIN AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH ONE INCH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. A MORE WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE. MUCH
OF THE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY SO WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO SALVAGE AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S.
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS
THE ECMWF/GEM FORM A CUT-OFF CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE MID MS
VALLEY BY MID WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS HAS NO SUCH THING AND
KEEPS THE PATTERN PROGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN RAIN
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW THE CONSENSUS FORECAST
IS TO KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
MAINLY MVFR FOG WILL LINGER AT AERODROMES UNTIL AROUND 14Z TO 15Z
THIS MORNING...WHILE KMLI MAY DIP BELOW A MILE VISIBILITY AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHEAST BREEZE AOB 10 KTS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
546 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF PROGRESSIVE WIND PRODUCING STORMS AND
SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY WIND DRIVEN...CONTINUE
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF NEAR 75 MPH
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AS WELL AS UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND REPEAT STORM CORES WILL PRODUCE
MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING AS WELL. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS COMPLEX
STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WICHITA
METRO AREA AND PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
KED
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
PROGRESSIVE DERECHO DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WHICH WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE HRRR
AND RAP ARE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TRACK WHICH SUGGESTS
IMPACT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WICHITA METRO LOOKS REASONABLE
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WATCH 226. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MESO/BOWING
SEGMENT. WIND DRIVEN HAIL IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAIL SIZE
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE GOLF BALL OR LESS...THOUGH COULD
STILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IF COINCIDENT
WITH SWATH OF STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRECEDE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE WIND STORM...ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION FEEDER ARM OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MESOSCALE COMPLEX WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW LATER TODAY...SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY RESIDE CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER OR INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER LARGER SCALE MESO-CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH
EPISODAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH DAILY
TRENDS ON PLACEMENT AND MODE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THE PRECEDING
12 TO 24 HOURS.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE DUE TO HIGHER IMPACT AND FOCUS ON SHORT TERM
WEATHER.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
CLUSTER OF PROGRESSIVE SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FESTER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO MIDDAY
HOWEVER THE SEVERE RISK WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST FOR A TIME IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH VERY CHAOTIC AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CHANCES FOR RENEWED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY OR
INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 86 69 83 68 / 70 60 50 80
HUTCHINSON 84 67 82 67 / 80 60 40 80
NEWTON 82 67 81 66 / 90 60 40 80
ELDORADO 82 67 80 67 / 80 60 50 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 69 83 69 / 60 60 50 80
RUSSELL 82 64 82 65 / 80 40 30 70
GREAT BEND 83 65 82 65 / 80 60 40 80
SALINA 82 66 82 66 / 80 30 30 80
MCPHERSON 83 66 81 66 / 90 50 40 80
COFFEYVILLE 85 69 82 69 / 60 60 60 70
CHANUTE 81 68 81 67 / 70 60 50 70
IOLA 80 67 80 67 / 80 60 50 70
PARSONS-KPPF 84 68 82 68 / 70 60 60 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
514 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF PROGRESSIVE WIND PRODUCING STORMS AND
SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY WIND DRIVEN...CONTINUE
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF NEAR 75 MPH
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AS WELL AS UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND REPEAT STORM CORES WILL PRODUCE
MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING AS WELL. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS COMPLEX
STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WICHITA
METRO AREA AND PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
KED
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
PROGRESSIVE DERECHO DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WHICH WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE HRRR
AND RAP ARE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TRACK WHICH SUGGESTS
IMPACT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WICHITA METRO LOOKS REASONABLE
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WATCH 226. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MESO/BOWING
SEGMENT. WIND DRIVEN HAIL IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAIL SIZE
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE GOLF BALL OR LESS...THOUGH COULD
STILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IF COINCIDENT
WITH SWATH OF STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRECEDE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE WIND STORM...ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION FEEDER ARM OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MESOSCALE COMPLEX WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW LATER TODAY...SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY RESIDE CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER OR INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER LARGER SCALE MESO-CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH
EPISODAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH DAILY
TRENDS ON PLACEMENT AND MODE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THE PRECEDING
12 TO 24 HOURS.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE DUE TO HIGHER IMPACT AND FOCUS ON SHORT TERM
WEATHER.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
EXPECTING A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 86 69 83 68 / 70 60 50 80
HUTCHINSON 84 67 82 67 / 80 60 40 80
NEWTON 82 67 81 66 / 90 60 40 80
ELDORADO 82 67 80 67 / 80 60 50 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 69 83 69 / 60 60 50 80
RUSSELL 82 64 82 65 / 80 40 30 70
GREAT BEND 83 65 82 65 / 80 60 40 80
SALINA 82 66 82 66 / 80 30 30 80
MCPHERSON 83 66 81 66 / 90 50 40 80
COFFEYVILLE 85 69 82 69 / 60 60 60 70
CHANUTE 81 68 81 67 / 70 60 50 70
IOLA 80 67 80 67 / 80 60 50 70
PARSONS-KPPF 84 68 82 68 / 70 60 60 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1044 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1043 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Light rain showers and patchy drizzle are lingering across the
southern three tiers of counties this morning, as the cold frontal
boundary which is currently along the Kentucky/Tennessee state
line continues to sag slowly southward. Expect these light showers
to diminish and/or push east southeast out of the area by around
the noon hour or shortly thereafter. Only minor adjustments to
temperatures...as they seem to be tracking well so far.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The synoptic pattern early this morning features a persistent
upper-level ridge centered over the south-central CONUS. Several
"ridge-riding" waves were rotating around this feature, one of which
pushed through earlier this evening. Another of these waves
(currently across the western High Plains) will pass through the
region late tonight into Friday.
Convection has largely dissipated across much of the region early
this morning as a conglomeration of cold pools has shunted the
better instability well south into TN. However, the surface front
still remains across south-central KY and a few showers continue to
develop along it from time to time. Therefore, will continue with
20-30 pops into the morning hours along this front (especially since
the latest HRRR shows some shower redevelopment along the front
through the early morning hours).
The front will clear southern KY by the late morning hours, ending
the precipitation chances. Cooler and drier air will filter in
today on ENE winds, which will make it feel quite comfortable
compared to recent days. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and
lower 80s with much lower humidity values.
Uncertainty begins to creep into the forecast tonight into Friday,
as guidance is struggling a bit with the placement of the next
approaching trough rounding the upper-level ridge. The
GEM/ECMWF/NAM all depict precipitation returning back north into
southern KY as forcing from this wave overspreads the area and the
surface front lifts back north. The GFS is a much drier solution,
keeping the precip southwest of the CWA. Given the effective
boundary is currently being driven south by ongoing convection and
the fact that convection will likely redevelop today/tonight across
portions of western TN, struggle to believe the front will be able
to lift back to the north all that much. Guidance typically
overdoes the northern extent of convection in these summer patterns,
and think that is likely the case here. Therefore, will leave only
slight chance to chance wording in southern KY late tonight into
Friday, favoring the drier GFS solution.
Lows tonight will vary from the middle 50s across the Northern
Bluegrass (given partly cloudy skies and light winds) to the middle
60s across southern KY where clouds will be more likely. Highs on
Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, likely a couple
degrees warmer than expected highs today.
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Shortwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure centered over Lake
Erie should make for a pleasant start to the weekend, and keep the
precip mostly suppressed to our south and west over the Tennessee
Valley. Without the Gulf open for business, expect temps just on the
low end of climo and dewpoints just either side of 60. This is the
time of year when GFS MOS max temps end up 3-4 degrees warmer than
NAM MOS across the board, and favoring the NAM is usually the way to
go.
Forecast confidence decreases substantially as we head into next
week as the pattern becomes fairly progressive. GFS and ECMWF agree
on a decent mid-level wave crossing the Ohio Valley Sunday, which
supports the highest POPs Sat night/Sunday, but it does have the
look of convective feedback. Therefore will limit POP to high-end
chance.
Pattern remains progressive through the rest of the long term, with
generally weak ridging over the Southwest, and weak trofiness over
most of the eastern CONUS. Periodic disturbances will traverse the
area and keep the weather a bit unsettled, but available moisture
will be the limiting factor. Minimal change to the going forecast
with 20-30 POPs throughout, and temps just either side of normal.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The surface cold front continues to make slow southward progress,
and will be sliding through KBWG in the next hour or two. Moisture
pooling along this front along with light winds have allowed KBWG
cigs to drop into the high-end IFR category. This will likely
persist for the next hour or two, before the front pushes through
and cigs rise a bit. Further north, post frontal cigs of
FL015-FL025 continue to affect KSDF and KLEX. These cigs will last
for a couple more hours this morning, before all sites go VFR by
mid-morning. ENE winds will continue through the day into tonight.
A small chance for a few showers will return to KBWG tonight, but
uncertainty in timing and coverage precludes mention attm.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........MRD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
800 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE DRIER AIR AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW HAS PRESSED INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS KEEPING THE FOG TO A MINIMUM
NORTH OF JKL WHILE TO THE SOUTH THE CLOUD COVER KEPT THE FOG THERE AT
BAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ARE DRIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THESE NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS AND TO DROP THE
FOG. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS. UPDATED ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS IS HELPING A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY. THE DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT
TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THINGS REMAIN STEAMY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NEARLY THE SAME...IN
THE UPPER 60S. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE CWA...AS WELL...SO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED WITH THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THICK MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA...DO EXPECT ENOUGH THINNING LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG...MAINLY
IN THE VALLEYS...THROUGH DAWN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A DEEP LOW SPINNING NORTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE STRONG RIDGING IS BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FAST FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING ALONG FROM WEST TO EAST. THE STRONGEST WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AND HAS PUSHED HEIGHTS DOWN OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...EVEN AS HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...A
COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND DIP THEM TEMPORARILY.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A
LEAN ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIFTING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CWA TO KEEP A DECENT...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND THEN NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COME BACK
NORTHEAST. LATER TONIGHT...DO ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AROUND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE MODERATES OUR
RECENT WARMTH...THOUGH TODAY WILL BE THE NICER DAY DUE TO MOST SEEING
MUCH DRIER HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM AND TONIGHT FOR SOME SPECIFIC
POINTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...SIMILARLY LOW IN THE NORTH...
THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM WESTERN KY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN TN. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN
UPTICK IN THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR 0Z
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ARE STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING ANY KIND OF AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...STUCK BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CONUS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER CENTRAL KY. THIS WILL ALSO WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SUPPRESSED AND
WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE ACROSS KENTUCKY. INSTEAD...THESE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NEARLY WEST TO EAST AND STRAIGHT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IF ALL HOLDS TRUE...THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL FINALLY START MOVING EASTWARD AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING SOME DEEPER TROUGHING TO TAKE FORM OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...AND THEN EVENTUALLY THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID
WEEK. HOWEVER...BY THIS POINT...MODELS REALLY START TO LOSE
AGREEMENT...SO WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE GIVEN ALL BLEND
SOLUTIONS.
THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD START TO IMPACT KENTUCKY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT WITH
ONLY CHANCE TSRA WORDING. THOUGH WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE
BETTER LIFT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME PINPOINTING ANY EXACT TIMING OF ENTRANCE OR EXIT
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD...BUT DO EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO
BE CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO IF THERE IS A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...IT WILL BE BRIEF.
A TREND WILL DEVELOP. THE SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST TO WEST
THROUGH KY...A BRIEF LULL WILL OCCUR...AND YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS TUESDAY SYSTEM CORRELATES WITH THE DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD.
USUALLY AN UPTICK IN FORCING WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM AS IT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SO OUT OF SYNC AT THIS POINT THAT NONE OF THEM
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...INSTABILITY...AND TIMING ARE ALL UP IN THE AIR
STILL AT THIS POINT UNTIL MODELS COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT. IF
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER
THE REGION...WITH CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL PUT QPF
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TUESDAY
AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE TIMED THESE
OUT OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...WITH GOOD
AVN WX CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRAY STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
644 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 610 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Updated the grids early this morning mainly to account for the
latest radar trends. As expected, showers and perhaps an isolated
rumble of thunder continue to develop along the cold front as it
slowly sags south across the region. Its progress has slowed a bit
the past couple of hours, thus have lingered pops a bit longer than
the previous forecast across east-central KY. Otherwise, the rest
of the forecast looks on track.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The synoptic pattern early this morning features a persistent
upper-level ridge centered over the south-central CONUS. Several
"ridge-riding" waves were rotating around this feature, one of which
pushed through earlier this evening. Another of these waves
(currently across the western High Plains) will pass through the
region late tonight into Friday.
Convection has largely dissipated across much of the region early
this morning as a conglomeration of cold pools has shunted the
better instability well south into TN. However, the surface front
still remains across south-central KY and a few showers continue to
develop along it from time to time. Therefore, will continue with
20-30 pops into the morning hours along this front (especially since
the latest HRRR shows some shower redevelopment along the front
through the early morning hours).
The front will clear southern KY by the late morning hours, ending
the precipitation chances. Cooler and drier air will filter in
today on ENE winds, which will make it feel quite comfortable
compared to recent days. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and
lower 80s with much lower humidity values.
Uncertainty begins to creep into the forecast tonight into Friday,
as guidance is struggling a bit with the placement of the next
approaching trough rounding the upper-level ridge. The
GEM/ECMWF/NAM all depict precipitation returning back north into
southern KY as forcing from this wave overspreads the area and the
surface front lifts back north. The GFS is a much drier solution,
keeping the precip southwest of the CWA. Given the effective
boundary is currently being driven south by ongoing convection and
the fact that convection will likely redevelop today/tonight across
portions of western TN, struggle to believe the front will be able
to lift back to the north all that much. Guidance typically
overdoes the northern extent of convection in these summer patterns,
and think that is likely the case here. Therefore, will leave only
slight chance to chance wording in southern KY late tonight into
Friday, favoring the drier GFS solution.
Lows tonight will vary from the middle 50s across the Northern
Bluegrass (given partly cloudy skies and light winds) to the middle
60s across southern KY where clouds will be more likely. Highs on
Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, likely a couple
degrees warmer than expected highs today.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Shortwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure centered over Lake
Erie should make for a pleasant start to the weekend, and keep the
precip mostly suppressed to our south and west over the Tennessee
Valley. Without the Gulf open for business, expect temps just on the
low end of climo and dewpoints just either side of 60. This is the
time of year when GFS MOS max temps end up 3-4 degrees warmer than
NAM MOS across the board, and favoring the NAM is usually the way to
go.
Forecast confidence decreases substantially as we head into next
week as the pattern becomes fairly progressive. GFS and ECMWF agree
on a decent mid-level wave crossing the Ohio Valley Sunday, which
supports the highest POPs Sat night/Sunday, but it does have the
look of convective feedback. Therefore will limit POP to high-end
chance.
Pattern remains progressive through the rest of the long term, with
generally weak ridging over the Southwest, and weak trofiness over
most of the eastern CONUS. Periodic disturbances will traverse the
area and keep the weather a bit unsettled, but available moisture
will be the limiting factor. Minimal change to the going forecast
with 20-30 POPs throughout, and temps just either side of normal.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The surface cold front continues to make slow southward progress,
and will be sliding through KBWG in the next hour or two. Moisture
pooling along this front along with light winds have allowed KBWG
cigs to drop into the high-end IFR category. This will likely
persist for the next hour or two, before the front pushes through
and cigs rise a bit. Further north, post frontal cigs of
FL015-FL025 continue to affect KSDF and KLEX. These cigs will last
for a couple more hours this morning, before all sites go VFR by
mid-morning. ENE winds will continue through the day into tonight.
A small chance for a few showers will return to KBWG tonight, but
uncertainty in timing and coverage precludes mention attm.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
610 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 610 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Updated the grids early this morning mainly to account for the
latest radar trends. As expected, showers and perhaps an isolated
rumble of thunder continue to develop along the cold front as it
slowly sags south across the region. Its progress has slowed a bit
the past couple of hours, thus have lingered pops a bit longer than
the previous forecast across east-central KY. Otherwise, the rest
of the forecast looks on track.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The synoptic pattern early this morning features a persistent
upper-level ridge centered over the south-central CONUS. Several
"ridge-riding" waves were rotating around this feature, one of which
pushed through earlier this evening. Another of these waves
(currently across the western High Plains) will pass through the
region late tonight into Friday.
Convection has largely dissipated across much of the region early
this morning as a conglomeration of cold pools has shunted the
better instability well south into TN. However, the surface front
still remains across south-central KY and a few showers continue to
develop along it from time to time. Therefore, will continue with
20-30 pops into the morning hours along this front (especially since
the latest HRRR shows some shower redevelopment along the front
through the early morning hours).
The front will clear southern KY by the late morning hours, ending
the precipitation chances. Cooler and drier air will filter in
today on ENE winds, which will make it feel quite comfortable
compared to recent days. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and
lower 80s with much lower humidity values.
Uncertainty begins to creep into the forecast tonight into Friday,
as guidance is struggling a bit with the placement of the next
approaching trough rounding the upper-level ridge. The
GEM/ECMWF/NAM all depict precipitation returning back north into
southern KY as forcing from this wave overspreads the area and the
surface front lifts back north. The GFS is a much drier solution,
keeping the precip southwest of the CWA. Given the effective
boundary is currently being driven south by ongoing convection and
the fact that convection will likely redevelop today/tonight across
portions of western TN, struggle to believe the front will be able
to lift back to the north all that much. Guidance typically
overdoes the northern extent of convection in these summer patterns,
and think that is likely the case here. Therefore, will leave only
slight chance to chance wording in southern KY late tonight into
Friday, favoring the drier GFS solution.
Lows tonight will vary from the middle 50s across the Northern
Bluegrass (given partly cloudy skies and light winds) to the middle
60s across southern KY where clouds will be more likely. Highs on
Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, likely a couple
degrees warmer than expected highs today.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
Shortwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure centered over Lake
Erie should make for a pleasant start to the weekend, and keep the
precip mostly suppressed to our south and west over the Tennessee
Valley. Without the Gulf open for business, expect temps just on the
low end of climo and dewpoints just either side of 60. This is the
time of year when GFS MOS max temps end up 3-4 degrees warmer than
NAM MOS across the board, and favoring the NAM is usually the way to
go.
Forecast confidence decreases substantially as we head into next
week as the pattern becomes fairly progressive. GFS and ECMWF agree
on a decent mid-level wave crossing the Ohio Valley Sunday, which
supports the highest POPs Sat night/Sunday, but it does have the
look of convective feedback. Therefore will limit POP to high-end
chance.
Pattern remains progressive through the rest of the long term, with
generally weak ridging over the Southwest, and weak trofiness over
most of the eastern CONUS. Periodic disturbances will traverse the
area and keep the weather a bit unsettled, but available moisture
will be the limiting factor. Minimal change to the going forecast
with 20-30 POPs throughout, and temps just either side of normal.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2014
The advertised surface cold front continues to sag south tonight,
and it currently bisects central KY. This means that convection has
ended at KSDF and KLEX. Additional convection continues to develop
along this front and may impact KBWG, but will wait until just
before TAF issuance to decide whether to include any precip mention
there as this convection may pass just to the west of the terminal.
Otherwise, post-frontal low cigs continue to slide south across
southern IN. These cigs will be right around fuel-alternate
thresholds, in the FL015-FL025 range. Could also see some patchy
light fog at KLEX and KBWG, but the winds staying up and the
widespread cloud cover should help keep vsbys mainly VFR.
Otherwise, Thursday will be a low-impact aviation day with VFR
conditions expected. Winds will be out of the ENE, with any lower
cigs scattering out by the mid-morning hours.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
917 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TODAY AND CROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE: AN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST AT THIS HOUR...DUE TO
ARRIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON
THIS TREND, RAMPED UP POPS AND QPF OVER DOWNEAST LOCALS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE COMING IN A
LITTLE QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT, AND WIND GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE
PLACEMENT OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREAS OF FOG
A NUISANCE DOWNEAST AND ON THE COAST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE RESIDE. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR DID QUITE WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP AS DID THE CANADIAN GEM. THIS FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIFTING OUT THE CWA TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVE
OUT OF THE NERN US AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE COOLING DOWN AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NAM SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE GFS POINT TO
THE POTENTIAL OF TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE W AND NW AREAS. SB/MUCAPE PROGGED TO HIT 250 J/KG AND TOTAL
TOTALS HIT AROUND 50 W/KIS IN THE UPPER 20S. PLUS THERE WILL BE
SOME FORCING TO TRIGGER THINGS. SMALL HAIL COULD BE A RISK IF THE
LATER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS TREND. DECIDED TO CARRY TSTMS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BUT LEFT OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING ATTM.
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY. FURTHER E AND S, A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN/SHOWERS AS THE LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS SEEING 70F IF THE SUN DECIDES TO
PEEK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA W/THE RISK OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.
QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS DATABASE
WHICH SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
DOWNEAST AREAS W/THE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SB CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO BE 500-1000J/KG WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S. FREEZING
LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OF THE
POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDED ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. FOG WILL BE A ISSUE FOR KBGR & KBHB THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO GO VFR ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO IFR EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT W/FOG AND RAIN.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED BUT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
SWELL AS THE PERIODS CONTINUE TO BE 8-10 SECONDS. THE E SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SOME AND DECIDED TO
BRING THE SWELL UP TO A RANGE OF 4-5 FT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
655 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TODAY AND CROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
650 AM UPDATE:
ADJUSTED THE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
DOWNEAST REGION. RAMPED UP THE DRIZZLE AS THE OBS AND WEBCAMS
INDICATE THIS TO BE THE CASE. BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NW
AREAS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z W/JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH THE
LATEST READINGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE PLACEMENT OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREAS OF FOG
A NUISANCE DOWNEAST AND ON THE COAST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE RESIDE. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR DID QUITE WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP AS DID THE CANADIAN GEM. THIS FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIFTING OUT THE CWA TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVE
OUT OF THE NERN US AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE COOLING DOWN AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NAM SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE GFS POINT TO
THE POTENTIAL OF TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE W AND NW AREAS. SB/MUCAPE PROGGED TO HIT 250 J/KG AND TOTAL
TOTALS HIT AROUND 50 W/KIS IN THE UPPER 20S. PLUS THERE WILL BE
SOME FORCING TO TRIGGER THINGS. SMALL HAIL COULD BE A RISK IF THE
LATER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS TREND. DECIDED TO CARRY TSTMS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BUT LEFT OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING ATTM.
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY. FURTHER E AND S, A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN/SHOWERS AS THE LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS SEEING 70F IF THE SUN DECIDES TO
PEEK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA W/THE RISK OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.
QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS DATABASE
WHICH SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
DOWNEAST AREAS W/THE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SB CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO BE 500-1000J/KG WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S. FREEZING
LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OF THE
POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDED ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. FOG WILL BE A ISSUE FOR KBGR & KBHB THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO GO VFR ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO IFR EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT W/FOG AND RAIN.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED BUT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
SWELL AS THE PERIODS CONTINUE TO BE 8-10 SECONDS. THE E SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SOME AND DECIDED TO
BRING THE SWELL UP TO A RANGE OF 4-5 FT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
Active morning of weather across area this morning. Training
convection extending from the Pittsburg, KS/Joplin, MO area
southeastward toward Branson has produced numerous reports of
hail and very heavy rainfall. Additional isolated storms have
redeveloped over south central Missouri.
Main forecast focus is the developing severe thunderstorm complex
over central Kansas. This system is quickly getting its act
together this morning and will continue to accelerate east,
closely following forward propagating system motion vectors
(currently at 50-60kt to the east southeast).
This convective complex will continue to move into a favorable
environment. There is no lack of thermo ahead of this system with
MUCAPE around/above 2000 J/kg from areas along and south of Nevada
to West Plains. MUCAPE will actually increase a bit this morning,
with the RUC suggesting around 3000 J/kg by the mid/late morning
hours. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50 kt will ensure continued storm
organization. While low level shear is a bit light/disorganized,
low level theta-e differences in the mid/upper 20s C are suggested
by the short term models which indicates good wind potential.
The weak low level shear does keep 0-3km shear vectors in the
20-25kt range (oriented west to east). This is not ideal for
mesovortex production, but it is still plausible to see
mesovorticies with any west to east surges embedded within the
line.
Locations most prone to seeing this squall line will be areas
(roughly) along and south of Nevada to West Plains. Timing wise,
it looks like this system will enter the western portions of the
outlook area by 8 AM, with a progressive acceleration to the east
through the morning hours. Current estimates place the line around
the highway 65 corridor around 10 AM, south central MO by noon.
These will definitely need to be revised as this system matures
and accelerates.
Hazards...the biggest risk will be wind gusts to 70mph. Localized
areas of stronger winds are possible, especially considering the
increase in low level theta-e differences. Hail will likely be
tough to come by, but a few stones to quarter size are possible.
At this point the tornado risk is on the low side given expected
0-3km shear vector orientation and strength. That said, we do have
multiple boundaries in place and line interactions are possible.
As a result, will continue with a few tornadoes possible.
Additional activity is expected tonight as another MCS looks to
develop from convection refiring over KS/OK. This will pose yet
another wind risk. If this does materialize as expected, a flash
flood watch will need to be considered.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
As has been advertised, Friday through (at least) the weekend will
feature a very active weather pattern. Shortwaves will pass
through a largely zonal flow in periodic fashion. 00z suite of
model agrees with the overall pattern in general. The devil, of
course, will be in the mesoscale details with respect to exact
positioning of the synoptic scale front and shear/instability
profiles.
Bottom line timing from 00z models. Scattered showers/storms are
expected to redevelop during the heat of the day Friday. A
convective complex passage Saturday (originating from the central
Plains). Additional thunderstorm complexes are possible Saturday
night into Sunday, although trust in details at this juncture is
low.
Heading into next week, the ECMWF and GEM produce a cutoff low
over the Midwest during the first half of the week. This will keep
our area unsettled with additional rainfall possible. The GFS is
an outlier keeping the pattern progressive. The current forecast
sides with the cutoff low. Temperatures will remain seasonable
from Friday through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
The region is in a lull between storm systems with VFR ceilings at
the KSGF and KJLN terminals. Some areas of fog were impacting
portions of the area with MVFR to IFR visibilities noted at KBBG.
A severe storm system is expected to move across the region this
morning and into the early afternoon with MVFR to IFR visibilities
and strong gusty winds in storms.
Additional storms are expected to develop during the evening and
overnight with MVFR to IFR flight conditions expected as rain and
fog develop once again.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Hatch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA TODAY WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
BOTH DAYS...ALONG COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S
TO POSSIBLY NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1044 AM EDT THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A
PATCH OF PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS... CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST VERMONT AT THIS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE ENDED AND
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES OUT TO
SEA SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODELS SHOW A COLD
POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW. ALREADY SEEING PLENTY OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE NORTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...SO EXPECTING CLOUDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE NOW MOSTLY SUNNY. HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE SEEING
MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT VERY WELL
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS THINKING WITH EARLY MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BTV CWA IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN AN
UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND A SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE DELMARVA REGION
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH STAYS SOUTH AND WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACTS
TO THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORNING SHOWERS PUSHING
THROUGH THE SPRINGFIELD VT AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTL BORDER
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VT. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MEAGER SURFACE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG...SO REALLY NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO. WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN
ALOFT SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE`LL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AS IT
SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGER. LOWS WILL
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...BUT COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. SHOWERS POP UP AGAIN MID-DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE TO MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND MOISTURE
AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH MORE SO ON THE NORTHERN
GREENS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY THOUGH A TAD WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S FOR SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...DESPITE MODEST DIFFERENCES HERE AND
THERE...MAIN THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY...TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. MOST
PROBLEMATIC CONTINUES TO BE THE GLOBAL MODELS` HANDLING OF
EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SAT/SUN
TIME FRAME...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS FEATURE EVOLVES IN THE
MEAN WSW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SEVERAL BULLSEYES
IN PRECIPITATION AND ATMOSPHERIC BUOYANCY ALONG THE FEATURES TRACK
SUGGEST CONTINUED FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ULTIMATELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON TIMING/SPEED
ISSUES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN LINE
WITH THE GEFS AND HPC APPEARS THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...SUNDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST/WARMEST DAY WITH
ALL SPOTS INTO THE 80S AS 18Z BLENDED 925 MB TEMPS AVERAGE AROUND
20C. AS AFOREMENTIONED MIDWESTERN ENERGY AND GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH TRACK EAST...INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER APPEAR REASONABLE BY MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK TOWARD SEASONAL EARLY JUNE NORMS. BY MID
WEEK...IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCT/BKN VFR CIGS FROM 050-090 AGL EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED UNDER LIGHT WINDS.
SOME BRIEF SKC AT KSLK/BTV/KPBG EARLY. AFTER 15Z...SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT
MAIN THEME WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AFTER
00Z AS WINDS ABATE. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIGS
POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY..
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
SCT/BKN CIGS. COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/NORTH AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT
OVERALL THEME IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH NEXT
WAVE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE. TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS IN
REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND AS SUCH
WILL SUGGEST MAINLY VFR WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY WHEN IT DOES OCCUR.
06Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1044 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE CEILOMETER AT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND (KRUT)-SOUTHERN
VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN OUT OF SERVICE SINCE MAY 29TH AT
0215Z. THUS...THIS SITE IS NOT REPORTING SKY COVER AT THIS TIME.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE
FAA AOCC THAT PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO FIX THE CEILOMETER. THE FAA
AOCC HAVE INFORMED US OF A SCHEDULED OUTAGE OF THE KRUT AWOS
BETWEEN 1430Z-1900Z (1030 AM EDT-300 PM EDT LOCAL TIME) TODAY FOR
THE CEILOMETER FIX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA TODAY WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
BOTH DAYS...ALONG COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S
TO POSSIBLY NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT VERY WELL FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS THINKING WITH EARLY MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BTV CWA IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND A SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTH TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE DELMARVA REGION ALONG
A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH STAYS SOUTH AND WILL HAVE LIMITED
IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORNING SHOWERS
PUSHING THROUGH THE SPRINGFIELD VT AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTL BORDER PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VT. LATEST RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MEAGER SURFACE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG...SO REALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDER BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO. WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE`LL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AS IT
SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGER. LOWS WILL
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...BUT COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. SHOWERS POP UP AGAIN MID-DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE TO MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND MOISTURE
AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH MORE SO ON THE NORTHERN
GREENS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY THOUGH A TAD WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S FOR SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...DESPITE MODEST DIFFERENCES HERE AND
THERE...MAIN THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY...TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. MOST
PROBLEMATIC CONTINUES TO BE THE GLOBAL MODELS` HANDLING OF
EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SAT/SUN
TIME FRAME...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS FEATURE EVOLVES IN THE
MEAN WSW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SEVERAL BULLSEYES
IN PRECIPITATION AND ATMOSPHERIC BUOYANCY ALONG THE FEATURES TRACK
SUGGEST CONTINUED FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ULTIMATELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON TIMING/SPEED
ISSUES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN LINE
WITH THE GEFS AND HPC APPEARS THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...SUNDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST/WARMEST DAY WITH
ALL SPOTS INTO THE 80S AS 18Z BLENDED 925 MB TEMPS AVERAGE AROUND
20C. AS AFOREMENTIONED MIDWESTERN ENERGY AND GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH TRACK EAST...INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER APPEAR REASONABLE BY MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK TOWARD SEASONAL EARLY JUNE NORMS. BY MID
WEEK...IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCT/BKN VFR CIGS FROM 050-090 AGL EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED UNDER LIGHT WINDS.
SOME BRIEF SKC AT KSLK/BTV/KPBG EARLY. AFTER 15Z...SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT
MAIN THEME WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AFTER
00Z AS WINDS ABATE. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIGS
POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY..
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
SCT/BKN CIGS. COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/NORTH AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT
OVERALL THEME IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH NEXT
WAVE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE. TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS IN
REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND AS SUCH
WILL SUGGEST MAINLY VFR WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY WHEN IT DOES OCCUR.
06Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 744 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE CEILOMETER AT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND (KRUT)-SOUTHERN
VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN OUT OF SERVICE SINCE MAY 29TH AT
0215Z. THUS...THIS SITE IS NOT REPORTING SKY COVER AT THIS TIME.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE
FAA AOCC THAT PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO FIX THE CEILOMETER...AND HAVE
INFORMED US OF A SCHEDULED OUTAGE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1430-1900
LOCAL TIME ON THURSDAY FOR THE CEILOMETER FIX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1054 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL VORT CENTER SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST SD LATE THIS
MORNING WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL WAS SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE UPPER VORT CENTER. ADJUSTED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND UPDATED FORECAST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WEAK TROF ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SITUATED OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LIMITED CIN...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOSS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SO DESPITE A 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...PROFILES SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY FRIDAY.
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...AND SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE
UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. H85
TEMPERATURES DIP TO +5C BY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THOUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
FAIRLY COOL AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. MORE
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1017 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH 5PM THIS AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO/SQUALL LINE
MOVING AT 60 MPH WILL MOVE INTO RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN 1-2PM...THE JONESBORO AREA AROUND
2PM...THE MEMPHIS METRO AND JACKSON AREA BETWEEN 3-4PM...AND
FINALLY IN THE TUPELO AND CORINTH AREA BETWEEN 4-5PM. DAMAGING
WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SECONDARY
THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS PRODUCED
TWO TO A LITTLE OVER THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCORDING TO
MORNING COOP REPORTS. ADDITIONAL COMPLEX IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AND PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THIS LINE...TO INCLUDE EXPECTED
DISTURBANCES/TRAINING STORMS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY COULD
EASILY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MIDSOUTH PROMPTING THE NEED FOR A FFA.
A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CWA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOW ECHO IN SW MISSOURI/NW ARKANSAS TODAY. THIS LINE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BEING WARNED WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THE
OZARKS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF I-40. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEHIND THIS LINE LATER TONIGHT ADDING
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. POPS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO LIKELY IN THIS ZONE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY
IMPACT THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ENHANCED
SEVERE WEATHER RISK AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AND
SHEAR INCREASES. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WIND
DAMAGE...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD...AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES
MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED.
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
JLH
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS INDICATE THAT
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. MORE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ATTM. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE AIDED BY WARM
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SYNOPSIS...
TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RING OF FIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT COVERAGE...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE THE ELUSIVE PUZZLE
PIECES ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR
SO.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND GROW INTO A MCS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAIN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL
VERY DEPENDENT ON EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AND SOME
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION.
DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AND MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
A MCS. THE NEXT WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH LESS COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MENTIONABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN MCS THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS MOVED OFF
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING WITH DIURNAL
CU AGAIN EXPECTED OVER ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER MCS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS MAY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. ADDED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPOS AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KTUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. KTUP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BRUNT OF THE
ACTIVITY BUT THERE MAY BE NEARBY CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING AND
COVERED WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. TIMING AND LOCATION IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT WITH MCS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEBRIS CLOUD AND CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE NEAR
THE STALLING OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT. PLAN TO KEEP VFR CIGS FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATER TONIGHT IN AREAS
WHERE RAINS OCCUR.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 KTS OR
LESS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
923 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS PRODUCED
TWO TO A LITTLE OVER THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCORDING TO
MORNING COOP REPORTS. ADDITIONAL COMPLEX IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AND PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THIS LINE...TO INCLUDE EXPECTED
DISTURBANCES/TRAINING STORMS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY COULD
EASILY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MIDSOUTH PROMPTING THE NEED FOR A FFA.
A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CWA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOW ECHO IN SW MISSOURI/NW ARKANSAS TODAY. THIS LINE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BEING WARNED WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THE
OZARKS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF I-40. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEHIND THIS LINE LATER TONIGHT ADDING
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. POPS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO LIKELY IN THIS ZONE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY
IMPACT THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ENHANCED
SEVERE WEATHER RISK AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AND
SHEAR INCREASES. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WIND
DAMAGE...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD...AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES
MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED.
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
JLH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS INDICATE THAT
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. MORE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ATTM. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE AIDED BY WARM
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SYNOPSIS...
TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RING OF FIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT COVERAGE...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE THE ELUSIVE PUZZLE
PIECES ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR
SO.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND GROW INTO A MCS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAIN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL
VERY DEPENDENT ON EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AND SOME
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION.
DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AND MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
A MCS. THE NEXT WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH LESS COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MENTIONABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN MCS THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS MOVED OFF
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING WITH DIURNAL
CU AGAIN EXPECTED OVER ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER MCS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS MAY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. ADDED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPOS AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KTUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. KTUP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BRUNT OF THE
ACTIVITY BUT THERE MAY BE NEARBY CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING AND
COVERED WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. TIMING AND LOCATION IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT WITH MCS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEBRIS CLOUD AND CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE NEAR
THE STALLING OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT. PLAN TO KEEP VFR CIGS FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATER TONIGHT IN AREAS
WHERE RAINS OCCUR.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 KTS OR
LESS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
806 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. POPS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO LIKELY IN THIS ZONE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY
IMPACT THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ENHANCED
SEVERE WEATHER RISK AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AND
SHEAR INCREASES. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WIND
DAMAGE...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD...AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES
MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED.
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS INDICATE THAT
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. MORE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ATTM. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE AIDED BY WARM
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SYNOPSIS...
TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RING OF FIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT COVERAGE...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE THE ELUSIVE PUZZLE
PIECES ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR
SO.
.NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND GROW INTO A MCS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAIN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL
VERY DEPENDENT ON EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AND SOME
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION.
DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AND MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
A MCS. THE NEXT WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH LESS COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MENTIONABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN MCS THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS MOVED OFF
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING WITH DIURNAL
CU AGAIN EXPECTED OVER ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER MCS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS MAY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. ADDED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPOS AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KTUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. KTUP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BRUNT OF THE
ACTIVITY BUT THERE MAY BE NEARBY CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING AND
COVERED WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. TIMING AND LOCATION IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT WITH MCS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEBRIS CLOUD AND CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE NEAR
THE STALLING OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT. PLAN TO KEEP VFR CIGS FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATER TONIGHT IN AREAS
WHERE RAINS OCCUR.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 KTS OR
LESS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
644 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS INDICATE THAT
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. MORE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ATTM. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE AIDED BY WARM
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SYNOPSIS...
TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RING OF FIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT COVERAGE...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE THE ELUSIVE PUZZLE
PIECES ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR
SO.
.NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND GROW INTO A MCS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAIN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL
VERY DEPENDENT ON EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AND SOME
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION.
DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AND MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
A MCS. THE NEXT WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH LESS COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MENTIONABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN MCS THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS MOVED OFF
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING WITH DIURNAL
CU AGAIN EXPECTED OVER ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER MCS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS MAY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER. ADDED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPOS AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KTUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. KTUP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BRUNT OF THE
ACTIVITY BUT THERE MAY BE NEARBY CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING AND
COVERED WITH A VCTS FOR NOW. TIMING AND LOCATION IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT WITH MCS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEBRIS CLOUD AND CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE NEAR
THE STALLING OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT. PLAN TO KEEP VFR CIGS FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATER TONIGHT IN AREAS
WHERE RAINS OCCUR.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 KTS OR
LESS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
457 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS INDICATE THAT
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. MORE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ATTM. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE AIDED BY WARM
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SYNOPSIS...
TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RING OF FIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT COVERAGE...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE THE ELUSIVE PUZZLE
PIECES ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR
SO.
.NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND GROW INTO A MCS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAIN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL
VERY DEPENDENT ON EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AND SOME
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION.
DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AND MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
A MCS. THE NEXT WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH LESS COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MENTIONABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS KJBR AND KMKL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH TSRAS. BY 10-11Z...EXPECT LINGERING SHRAS AND
POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT KJBR AND KMKL THROUGH 14Z.
THEREAFTER...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REST OF FORECAST AS LATEST HRRR
SHOWS A DYING MCS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER 15Z. IF MCS WOULD
MOVE IN THEN SHRAS COULD KEEP CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MVFR INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THOUGHT OF SCT TSRAS FROM
DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPING BETWEEN 17-20Z. CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH
AFTER 1Z. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THEREAFTER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON DIRECTION AS CONVECTION WILL PLAY
HAVOC WITH DIRECTION/SPEED.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
650 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH WESTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT...SOME SHOWERS HAVE FLARED UP JUST TO THE EAST OF
LAKE GEORGE...HEADING MAINLY EAST. TOPS WERE UP TO 20,000...BUT THE
50 DBZ CORE WAS WELL UNDER 27,000 (WHERE LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE).
DID ISSUE A BULLET NOW FOR THAT CELL BUT AT WORST...SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL WITH IT.
THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF ALBANY (ONE HAS POPPED UP OVER THE DUTCHESS/ULSTER COUNTY LINE).
THE LATEST HRRR LOOKS TO HANDLE THE ACTIVITY NEAR LAKE GEORGE
WELL...BUT DOES NOT HAVE ANYTHING FURTHER SOUTH.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THAT REGION. ANOTHER SHORT WAS WAS
WORKING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS ONE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER ON THIS EVENING AND MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
FOR THIS UPDATE...TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE NEAR
TERM CHANGES (MORE ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH). BELIEVE ANY
CONVECTION WELL TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD DIE OUT ONCE THE SUN SETS.
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD/REDEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING E/SE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO...AND A LARGER COLD POOL NOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE...AND ANOTHER ONE FOR
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BECOME PREDOMINATE...ESPECIALLY
FROM AROUND INTERSTATE 90 NORTHWARD. TO THE SOUTH...THERE SHOULD BE
SOME PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY...TO EVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FORCING FROM THE TWO OVERNIGHT WAVES...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH AS FAR S AS
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
CATSKILLS...ESP AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS PERSIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...SOME CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
THEN...SKIES MAY TREND TO PARTLY OR EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD IN THE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ESP IN
VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER
70S...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BUILD UP RATHER QUICKLY BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES POSSIBLE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
STILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN VT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID/UPPER 70S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AS MIXING DEEPENS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MODELS SO SUGGEST A COLD POOL TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DEEP LAYER
OF DRY AIR AS WELL. SO...NO MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION AT THIS
TIME...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 80-85 IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MIN TEMPS FOR BOTH FRI
NT/SAT AM...AND SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND INTO THE SOMEWHAT CHILLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS.
SUNDAY...MODELS DIVERGE IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IT APPEARS
THAT...AT THE VERY LEAST...AS OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...SLIGHT CHC POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED FOR AREAS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES JUST A LITTLE FASTER...THEN THE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR AREAS NEAR
AND W OF THE HUDSON RIVER. IT SHOULD BE WARM AND MORE HUMID...WITH
MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT MAX TEMPS
COULD BE EVEN WARMER IN VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ARE
IN THE FORECAST BASED OFF OF DIURNAL HEATING TRENDS AND THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SMALL UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE TO THE EAST TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WE GO TOWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS WE GO LATER INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...A WEAK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP AND WITH WITH WEAK WINDS
ALOFT...NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN AREAS OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IN A SLIGHTLY
FAVORABLE AREA OF SOME 500 HPA VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH JUST AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS ALL SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST AND EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACCORDING TO SOME OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK DYNAMIC SET UP FOR ENHANCED VERTICAL
ASCENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-80KT JET.
IN-CONJUNCTION WITH A SET OF WEAK SURFACE LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
POLEWARD ALONG THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID OHIO
VALLEY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE PLATEAU OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A MORE DYNAMIC SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING THE HIGHEST POPS.
OTHERWISE WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR A STALLED OUT FRONT...MOST
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY INDUCED WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 60S WITH THIS HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MVFR
STRATUS IMPACTS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE EXITED EAST OF THE
REGION...REPLACED WITH A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT.
THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND GRADUALLY THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL DETERMINING IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OR DEVELOP INTO A MVFR STRATUS DECK WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE REGION. FAVORING MVFR STRATUS AT THE TAF
SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z IF ENOUGH CLEARING TAKES PLACE AT KPOU AND KPSF
WHERE IT RECENTLY RAINED. A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 5 KFT
WILL RETURN DURING THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH WESTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE RH WILL RECOVER INTO THE 80-100 PERCENT RANGE TONIGHT...THEN
FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN VALLEY AREAS...AND 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRI AFTN. THE RH WILL RISE BACK TO 90-100 FOR
FIR NT...WITH DEW FORMATION LIKELY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY FROM ONE TENTH TO
ONE THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS...WHILE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 88...AND
NORTH OF I-90 RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO RAIN.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST AREAS.
THIS AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
402 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN EXITS THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM A
SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY...DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
255 PM UPDATE...
MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS TIMING...SO LEANED HEAVILY UPON THEM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT
OBSERVED TRENDS.
05/12Z GUIDANCE WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT HANDLING A LOW PRESSURE
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE TO MINIMIZE THE MINOR DIFFERENCES.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE TIME
OF THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO
SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND BECOME MORE PREVALENT FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MA
FRIDAY MORNING...UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE.
MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF RISING HEIGHTS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER AS THE
RESULT. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...THUS A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY WEEKEND WITH WARM DAYS PARTICULARLY JUST INLAND FROM COAST
* A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK BUT FAR FROM A WASHOUT
DETAILS...
THIS WEEKEND...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE JUST IS A LOW RISK OF A BRIEF SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO SAT AFTERNOON...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF COLD POOL ALOFT AND
ANY LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY. EVEN IF A FEW WERE TO
OCCUR...AREAL COVERAGE WOULD BE QUITE LIMITED AND SHORT LIVED IN A
GIVEN LOCATION.
HIGH TEMPS ON SAT/SUN SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZES AT TIMES. THIS MEANS THAT PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST
MAY SEE COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO TIMING ANY POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION THREATS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE BEST
SHOT WILL BE TUE INTO WED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. WILL
CARRY 20 TO 30 POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER. WILL JUST HAVE TO BE ON THE
LOOK OUT FOR A ROUND OR TWO OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
RANGING FROM VFR WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KBDL...TO AN IFR/MVFR MIX
FARTHER EAST. AS RAINFALL DEPARTS...STILL EXPECTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS LONG AS THERE IS AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND. WINDS BACK TO NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
START THE PROCESS OF DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. EXPECTING A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES. BETTER SHOT
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AS WELL. WINDS BACKING NW OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING BRISK THEREBY KEEPING HEIGHTENED SEAS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR
BOATERS ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
THIS TIME PERIOD. EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER IS IN THE CARDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
255 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. ASIDE FROM A
SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY...DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. MILD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED EARLY NEXT WEEK
HOWEVER THE RISK OF SHOWERS INCREASE AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
255 PM UPDATE...
MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS TIMING...SO LEANED HEAVILY UPON THEM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT
OBSERVED TRENDS.
05/12Z GUIDANCE WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT HANDLING A LOW PRESSURE
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE TO MINIMIZE THE MINOR DIFFERENCES.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE TIME
OF THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO
SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND BECOME MORE PREVALENT FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MA
FRIDAY MORNING...UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE.
MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF RISING HEIGHTS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER AS THE
RESULT. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...THUS A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM THIS WEEKEND
* MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT RISK OF SHOWERS AS WELL
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WHILE THERE IS ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE IS VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLES /ECENS & GEFS/ THAT A SUPPRESSED
NORTHERN STREAM/POLAR JET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS AND
PRECLUDE ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS IF NOT LONGER. THUS A HEAT WAVE IS
NOT IN THE FORECAST BUT RATHER VERY PLEASANT TEMPS THIS PERIOD
/SEASONABLY WARM/ ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
50S/.
AS FOR PRECIP...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER SAT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
EARLY NEXT WEEK BOTH ENSEMBLES AND HI RES DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE MS VLY. HOWEVER AS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME RANGE THE HI RES OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THIS LONG
WAVE TROUGH. THUS WILL FOLLOW ENSEMBLES HERE AS A BASELINE TO OUR
FORECAST.
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...
SATURDAY...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED LOW LVL TEMPS SHOULD HAVE
INCREASED FASTER THAN THE UPPER LVLS...YIELDING MOIST ADIABATIC
MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE A VERY LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED SHRA
OR T- STORM. HOWEVER CAPE IS LACKING...AS IS A SOURCE OF
LIFT...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH IF ANY VERY WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM POTENTIAL SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE LACK OF CAPE...FORCING AND A FAIRLY DRY
COLUMN WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE SHOWER FREE. HENCE A VERY NICE DAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...TEMPS IN THE U70S TO L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SO DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES. WARM TEMPS AS WELL WITH HIGHS 80-85 INLAND...COOLER SOUTH
COAST WITH SSW WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.
MON THRU WED...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER
THE MS VLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY ADVECTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THEREFORE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
DRY WEATHER MAY BE MON WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS INCREASING TUE AND
WED. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN TIME
RANGE HERE BUT ALSO PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES
INDICATING MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
RANGING FROM VFR WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KBDL...TO AN IFR/MVFR MIX
FARTHER EAST. AS RAINFALL DEPARTS...STILL EXPECTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS LONG AS THERE IS AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND. WINDS BACK TO NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
START THE PROCESS OF DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. EXPECTING A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY WEATHER.
MON...LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING AND POSITION OF NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. PROBABLY VFR BUT COULD LOWER TO MVFR IN LOW RISK OF
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AS WELL. WINDS BACKING NW OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING BRISK THEREBY KEEPING HEIGHTENED SEAS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR
BOATERS ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR QUIET/DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD VSBY. THUS NEARLY IDEAL BOATING
WEATHER.
MON...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT NEAR
SHORE WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE S MAY REACH AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
151 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014/
..POTENTIAL FOR COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO IMPACT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING THEN TRACK FURTHER
SOUTHEAST...
.UPDATE...
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATE
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE MORNING PRECIP LEFTOVERS...THERE LOOKS TO BE LESS
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE HAS
NOT EXTENDED AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. THE MAIN THREAT
LOOKS TO BE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN INTENSE MCC CURRENTLY ACROSS
MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND PROGGED TO REACH NW GA BY ABOUT 23Z THIS
EVENING /GIVEN THE TIMING TOOL/. THE ENVIRONMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWARD TURN WHICH MAY PEG WEST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BE
LIKELY TO HIGH END CHANCE RAMPING UP IN WESTERN PORTIONS FOR THIS
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
CLOUD COVER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED TEMPS IN NORTHWEST GA SO
BUMPED DAYTIME MAX VALUES DOWN CONSIDERABLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SET TO IMPACT THE CWA. CURRENTLY WATCHING
MCS TRACK THROUGH TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TN REMAIN
ROBUST...BOWING SEGMENT APPROACHING NORTHWEST GEORGIA IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. AS THIS COMPLEX PUSHES INTO THE STATE...EXPECT
IT TO SPREAD A FEW STRONG STORMS INTO NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE 4-8AM...WITH THE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING TO MAINLY SHOWERS THEREAFTER. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS
HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...WITH LOCAL
WRF...NMM...AND ARW RIDDLED WITH TIMING AND POSITION ISSUES.
OVERALL THE HRRR HAS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...SO HAVE PARALLELED ITS SOLUTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BE DICTATED BY HOW THE MORNING
WEATHER EVOLVES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CLOUD COVER
FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY COULD ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...
AND COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS ACROSS
MIDDLE GEORGIA. WITH MODELED MLCAPE OF 2000+ J/KG AND MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE
BETWEEN NOON AND MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE STATE. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
JUST TO OUR WEST OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AL...BUT THE FIVE PERCENT AREA
FOR HAIL AND WIND ENCOMPASS THE MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
CWA. AREAS NORTH OF A HAMILTON TO LOUISVILLE LINE ARE PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ACTIVE PERIOD PERSISTS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY...AND HAVE CONTINUED
WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY AND INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT.
31
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR SATURDAY... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WHILE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COUPLED
WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED STORMS ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE STORMS
BECOMING STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT
PUSHES NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW PUSHING
INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY... A LINGERING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ON SUNDAY... AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. A LACK OF FRONTAL FOCUS
AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST STORMS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN... SUMMER TIME PULSE STORMS... AND REMAIN BELOW
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO AT LEAST NORTH GA ON MONDAY... THESE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...
WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY ENHANCING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT MEANDERING MAINLY JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTH BY EARLY TUESDAY AS MONDAYS
DISTURBANCE CUTS OFF OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTS OFF TO
THE NE ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THESE LATER
PERIODS... WILL SHOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS AT MINIMUM... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD STEADY
IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA IS
GENERALLY 00-06Z TONIGHT AS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG COMPLEX OF STORMS
TO PUSH ACROSS AREA FROM NORTHWEST. SOME STRONG WINDS COULD BE
EXPERIENCED ALONG BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THE MOMENT. WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN WEST AND NNW AT 10-14
KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 22 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLE UP UNTIL ABOUT 08Z TONIGHT WITH AFOREMENTIONED STORM
SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. STORM CHANCES ON
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY MAINLY AFTER 18Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW ON EVENING TSRA AND ENHANCED WIND POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
MEDIUM ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 90 69 89 67 / 30 40 40 30
ATLANTA 86 71 88 69 / 30 50 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 83 62 81 61 / 50 40 40 30
CARTERSVILLE 82 68 88 65 / 50 50 50 30
COLUMBUS 92 73 91 70 / 30 50 40 30
GAINESVILLE 86 69 86 67 / 40 50 40 30
MACON 92 69 91 70 / 50 50 40 30
ROME 84 68 89 66 / 60 60 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 88 68 89 66 / 30 50 40 30
VIDALIA 92 73 90 72 / 50 40 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1213 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE. AN AREA OF
STRATUS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FAR EASTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN ISOLATED VISIBILITY BELOW
1/4 MILE AT FREEPORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EARLY
MORNING FOG POTENTIAL AND THE POSSIBILITY LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS REACHING
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
IN THE NEAR TERM...A LOCALIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED NEAR
FREEPORT...WITH LIGHT FOG TO THE SOUTH AT MOLINE...STERLING AND PRINCETON.
WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST GRIDS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
DUE TO THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. THE 13KM RAP CURRENTLY HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...AND THE DECK IS EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH IOWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND SOME NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...THE
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST SOME STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND THEN ANOTHER CHANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE ARRIVES BUT MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED. THE GFS SEEMS WAY OVERDONE WITH QPF AS THIS MODEL
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT MOISTURE ISSUES. THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY AND
WILL FOLLOW SUIT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THIS WEEKEND...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS STRUGGLING
WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE
TO OVER 1.50 INCHES...SO RAIN AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH ONE INCH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. A MORE WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE. MUCH
OF THE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY SO WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO SALVAGE AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S.
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS
THE ECMWF/GEM FORM A CUT-OFF CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE MID MS
VALLEY BY MID WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS HAS NO SUCH THING AND
KEEPS THE PATTERN PROGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN RAIN
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW THE CONSENSUS FORECAST
IS TO KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING AT CID AND DBQ...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT...
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY LEAD TO FOG TOWARD MORNING
AND HAVE TEMPO GROUPS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE UPDATED
FORECASTS FOR CID AND BRL.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
458 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 458 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
WATCHING THE STORMS OVER EAST COLORADO CLOSELY AT THE PRESENT
TIME. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF 2000+ J/KG OF
SURFACE CAPE WITH LITTLE CINH. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-65 KNOTS
WAS PRESENT IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY. LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE DWINDLING. HOWEVER...THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON ANOTHER
LARGE MCS DEVELOPING OUT OF THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT THE PRESENT
TIME IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
KEEPING THIS MCS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. WITH THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PROJECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT...IT IS HARD
TO DISCOUNT THE CHANCES OF ANOTHER LARGE MCS MOVING OVER EAST
COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS IF A COLD POOL IS ABLE
TO DEVELOP/ORGANIZE WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
LIMON AND DENVER COLORADO.
WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO LAST NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. THE TORNADO
THREAT SEEMS A BIT LOWER WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY AT LOWER READINGS AT
THE PRESENT ANALYSIS. MAIN THREATS WOULD AGAIN BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...AM CONCERNED ABOUT
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT.
FORECAST PWATS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED THE 75TH PERCENTILE. WITH
HEAVY RAINS LAST NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS COME IN AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TONIGHT IS MORE CERTAIN
BEFORE THE YES/NO DECISION ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW MOVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO AN AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY...INCREASING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THIS
EVENING...MAKING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN AREA OF STORM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE COLORADO COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FOG IN THE WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE APEX OF THE
WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.
THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY EVENING.
MORE FORCING OCCURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY BUT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS WELL TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
WEAK WAVE SUNDAY BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL COME LATE SUNDAY WITH A
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING. CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO
2000 J/KG FRIDAY EVENING. CAPE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. CAPE ON SATURDAY WILL BE LOW WITH ONLY 100
TO 400 J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. SHEAR VALUES WILL REACH 35KTS IN
THE SOUTHERN FA FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
1.15 TO 1.43 FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. STORM
MOVEMENT FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SLOW WITH H7 WINDS FROM 5 TO 10KTS.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRONGEST
PARAMETERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DROP
OFF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY IN THE
SOUTHERN FA. DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING. POPS WILL BE HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT DECREASING
TO CHANCE SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL INCREASE SOME IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT TROUGH MOVES CLOSE TO THE AREA.
MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
MUCH COOLER READINGS FROM 50 TO 55 CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER AS WELL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM 67 IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 70S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE, ALTHOUGH FLATTENED, WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. HIGH POPS ARE ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND FORCING. HIGH PRESSURE AND RESULTING
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S WARMING TO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM FROM THE MID 70S MONDAY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 04-09Z AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS...BETWEEN
08-14Z...AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND DECREASED VISIBILITY. AFTER 14Z...LOW CLOUDS AND ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1238 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER SE KS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION REMAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE. FOR THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE TWO
AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST WILL BE ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KS-OK
BORDER. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG IT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CONVERGENCE
MAY BE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER SE KS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH LEADS TO MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE. IF A
STORM DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED
CAPE AND SHEAR TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
OVERNIGHT POPS WAS TO DECREASE OVER CENTRAL KS.
LAWSON
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
PROGRESSIVE DERECHO DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WHICH WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE HRRR
AND RAP ARE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TRACK WHICH SUGGESTS
IMPACT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WICHITA METRO LOOKS REASONABLE
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WATCH 226. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MESO/BOWING
SEGMENT. WIND DRIVEN HAIL IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAIL SIZE
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE GOLF BALL OR LESS...THOUGH COULD
STILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IF COINCIDENT
WITH SWATH OF STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRECEDE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE WIND STORM...ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION FEEDER ARM OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MESOSCALE COMPLEX WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW LATER TODAY...SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY RESIDE CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER OR INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER LARGER SCALE MESO-CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH
EPISODAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH DAILY
TRENDS ON PLACEMENT AND MODE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THE PRECEDING
12 TO 24 HOURS.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE DUE TO HIGHER IMPACT AND FOCUS ON SHORT TERM
WEATHER.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT.
LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS EXITED SE KS WITH CLEARING SKIES IN
ITS WAKE. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KS NEAR A SURFACE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
POINT TO INSERT INTO FORECAST. STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF
THE OK-KS BORDER WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO
FAR SOUTHERN KS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING AREAL COVERAGE TO BE AS HIGH AS
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 86 69 83 68 / 60 60 50 80
HUTCHINSON 84 67 82 67 / 80 60 40 80
NEWTON 82 67 81 66 / 80 60 40 80
ELDORADO 82 67 80 67 / 70 60 50 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 69 83 69 / 50 60 50 80
RUSSELL 82 64 82 65 / 80 40 30 70
GREAT BEND 83 65 82 65 / 80 60 40 80
SALINA 82 66 82 66 / 80 30 30 80
MCPHERSON 83 66 81 66 / 90 50 40 80
COFFEYVILLE 85 69 82 69 / 100 60 60 70
CHANUTE 81 68 81 67 / 90 60 50 70
IOLA 80 67 80 67 / 90 60 50 70
PARSONS-KPPF 84 68 82 68 / 100 60 60 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
08Z water vapor shows a shortwave trough moving across the northern
Rockies into the plains. This wave has kicked off convection that
has moved off the higher terrain into western KS. Surface and upper
air obs continue to show a very moist and unstable airmass across
central and eastern KS while profiler data shows a low level jet
beginning to veer around to the south and southwest. Most of the
convective allowing models show this developing MCS moving east
along the instability and moisture axis. This should take the MCS
east southeast along and south of I-70 and this is where the highest
POPs will be in the forecast. Some the of models suggest there could
be bowing segments with the MCS so damaging winds appear to be the
biggest concern. However a discrete storm would also be capable of
some large hail and/or a tornado through the morning hours.
Additionally the models prog PWs increasing to around 2 inches which
is more than 2 standard deviations above normal for early June. So
flash flooding could be a real problem is heavy rainfall last for
more than an hour or so over any given location. This is likely
going to impact the morning commute with most guidance taking the
convection east into MO by noon. The RAP and NAM continue to show
some kind of MCV hanging over the forecast area into the early
afternoon. Because of this will keep some chance POPs through the
afternoon in case additional storms are able to develop since there
is little inhibition to convection present in the models. Models
show weak surface ridging remaining over the forecast area with a
easterly surface wind. This combined with the cloud cover and precip
should keep highs in the middle 70s to near 80s.
For tonight, the surface boundary acting as the focus for convection
is progged to be a little further south of the forecast area.
Therefore the thinking is that the moisture and instability axis
will be shifted a little further south as well and any vort max that
triggers storms off the higher terrain this afternoon should favor a
track across southern KS and northern OK. However there should still
be some elevated instability and plenty of moisture for the chance
that some elevated storms could form along the nose of the low level
jet into central KS. Have kept some chance POPs for this reason.
Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower and middle 60s since
there is no real cold air advection taking place with a mild and
moist airmass in place.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
A longer wave length low amplitude upper level trough will continue
across the southwestern US through Saturday. Minor H5 troughs will
lift east-northeast across the central and southern plains bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period.
A more amplified H5 trough will lift east-northeast across KS Friday
night and into MO by Saturday afternoon. Strong ascent with deep
moisture in place will provide eastern KS with a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday Morning. An MCS
may develop Friday evening across southwest KS and move east-
northeast along and south of I-70. Any forward propagating MCS
will have the potential to bring very heavy rainfall, damaging
outflow winds and large hail within the stronger updrafts. Areas
along and south of interstate 70 may see an inch or two of
rainfall Friday Night into Saturday Morning which may cause
localized flooding.
The main H5 trough embedded within the southern branch of the jet
stream will be kicked eastward across north TX and OK. We may
see a break in the heavy rainfall Saturday night into Sunday, as
the stronger ascent passes south of the CWA.
The next upper level trough will dig southeast out of western Canada
into the central plains on Monday. This upper level trough may bring
another good chance for showers and thunderstorms with potential for
heavy rainfall on Monday as a surface cold front pushes southeast
across eastern KS. The upper level trough will amplify into a closed
upper low as it digs southeast across eastern OK, then the upper low
will lift northeast into the mid MS river valley. Lighter showers
will be possible on the west side of the upper low Monday night
through Tuesday.
We may see another break in our rain chances Tuesday night through
Wednesday.
An upper level trough will dig southeast into the pacific northwest
and stronger westerly mid level flow across the central Rockies
will cause a lee trough to develop across the northern and central
high plains by the middle and end of next week. Deep moisture will
begin to return across the plains and we will see chances for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday night.
High temperatures will be in the lower 80s Friday and Saturday.
We`ll see a slight cool down Sunday and Monday with highs in the
lower to mid 70s. High temperatures will warm back into 80s by mid
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
TAF has a fair amount of uncertainty in it. Expect mainly VFR
conditions through this evening with SCT to BKN clouds developing
in the 3k to 4k foot layer. Could see thunderstorms redevelop
after 20Z and impact TAF sites through around 02Z before
dissipating but coverage is not expected to be widespread at this
time. Any storms would reduce conditions to IFR if moving overhead
of TAF sites. Some guidance suggests IFR cig/vis after 09Z, but
not convinced it will occur at this time. Feel more confident in
restrictions to MVFR conditions but will certainly need to monitor
closely as there is some small potential for those IFR to VLIFR
conditions to materialize.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1147 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER SE KS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION REMAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE. FOR THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE TWO
AREAS TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST WILL BE ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KS-OK
BORDER. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG IT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CONVERGENCE
MAY BE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER SE KS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH LEADS TO MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE. IF A
STORM DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED
CAPE AND SHEAR TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
OVERNIGHT POPS WAS TO DECREASE OVER CENTRAL KS.
LAWSON
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
PROGRESSIVE DERECHO DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WHICH WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE HRRR
AND RAP ARE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TRACK WHICH SUGGESTS
IMPACT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WICHITA METRO LOOKS REASONABLE
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WATCH 226. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MESO/BOWING
SEGMENT. WIND DRIVEN HAIL IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAIL SIZE
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE GOLF BALL OR LESS...THOUGH COULD
STILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IF COINCIDENT
WITH SWATH OF STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRECEDE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE WIND STORM...ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION FEEDER ARM OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MESOSCALE COMPLEX WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW LATER TODAY...SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY RESIDE CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER OR INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER LARGER SCALE MESO-CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH
EPISODAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH DAILY
TRENDS ON PLACEMENT AND MODE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THE PRECEDING
12 TO 24 HOURS.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE DUE TO HIGHER IMPACT AND FOCUS ON SHORT TERM
WEATHER.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
CLUSTER OF PROGRESSIVE SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FESTER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO MIDDAY
HOWEVER THE SEVERE RISK WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST FOR A TIME IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH VERY CHAOTIC AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CHANCES FOR RENEWED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY OR
INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 86 69 83 68 / 60 60 50 80
HUTCHINSON 84 67 82 67 / 80 60 40 80
NEWTON 82 67 81 66 / 80 60 40 80
ELDORADO 82 67 80 67 / 70 60 50 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 69 83 69 / 50 60 50 80
RUSSELL 82 64 82 65 / 80 40 30 70
GREAT BEND 83 65 82 65 / 80 60 40 80
SALINA 82 66 82 66 / 80 30 30 80
MCPHERSON 83 66 81 66 / 90 50 40 80
COFFEYVILLE 85 69 82 69 / 100 60 60 70
CHANUTE 81 68 81 67 / 90 60 50 70
IOLA 80 67 80 67 / 90 60 50 70
PARSONS-KPPF 84 68 82 68 / 100 60 60 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SETTLED JUST SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND SHOULD MAKE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS BEFORE STARTING TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND MAINLY THE FAR SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY...WITH RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA. TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT THE CU IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND
MIX OUT A BIT AND MID TO UPPER 70S STILL APPEAR REACHABLE BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP ARE ALREADY
OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE DRIER AIR AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW HAS PRESSED INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS KEEPING THE FOG TO A MINIMUM
NORTH OF JKL WHILE TO THE SOUTH THE CLOUD COVER KEPT THE FOG THERE AT
BAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ARE DRIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THESE NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS AND TO DROP THE
FOG. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS. UPDATED ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS IS HELPING A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY. THE DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT
TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THINGS REMAIN STEAMY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NEARLY THE SAME...IN
THE UPPER 60S. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE CWA...AS WELL...SO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED WITH THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THICK MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA...DO EXPECT ENOUGH THINNING LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG...MAINLY
IN THE VALLEYS...THROUGH DAWN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A DEEP LOW SPINNING NORTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE STRONG RIDGING IS BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FAST FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING ALONG FROM WEST TO EAST. THE STRONGEST WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AND HAS PUSHED HEIGHTS DOWN OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...EVEN AS HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...A
COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND DIP THEM TEMPORARILY.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A
LEAN ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIFTING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CWA TO KEEP A DECENT...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND THEN NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COME BACK
NORTHEAST. LATER TONIGHT...DO ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AROUND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE MODERATES OUR
RECENT WARMTH...THOUGH TODAY WILL BE THE NICER DAY DUE TO MOST SEEING
MUCH DRIER HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM AND TONIGHT FOR SOME SPECIFIC
POINTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...SIMILARLY LOW IN THE NORTH...
THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE LONG TERM MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED.
THE CONSENSUS PATTERN IS FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS INITIAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS IT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD. IT
THEN APPEARS THAT SLUGGISH EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TO BEGIN
THE NEW WORK WEEK. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL
FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING RECURRING RAIN
CHANCES TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS SERIES
OF WAVES EXIT THE AREA...THE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. INITIAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL WAVES. THERE LOOKS TO A BRIEF DECREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SERIES OF
FRONTAL WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT HIGH PROBABILITY OF
RAIN WILL ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONTAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...MOIST BUT WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LINGERING SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...ALBEIT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO AT
BEST SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES FOR ALL BUT THE FIRST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT AROUND 80 DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY...WHEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH WELL
INTO THE 80S AREA WIDE...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AND
SO FAR HAS ONLY OCCURRED NORTH OF I 64. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MVFR RANGE...AND EVENTUALLY THE INTO VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST 5 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA AND
DRY AIR FILTERS IN. A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LOZ AND
SME DURING THE FIRST 5 HOUR OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 6Z TO 18Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION SOME MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR OR LOWER FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. OTHER THAN THE FIRST 5 HOURS AND THE WINDOW WHERE
FOG IS POSSIBLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
105 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SETTLED JUST SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND SHOULD MAKE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS BEFORE STARTING TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND MAINLY THE FAR SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY...WITH RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA. TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...BUT THE CU IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND
MIX OUT A BIT AND MID TO UPPER 70S STILL APPEAR REACHABLE BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP ARE ALREADY
OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE DRIER AIR AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW HAS PRESSED INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS KEEPING THE FOG TO A MINIMUM
NORTH OF JKL WHILE TO THE SOUTH THE CLOUD COVER KEPT THE FOG THERE AT
BAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ARE DRIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THESE NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS AND TO DROP THE
FOG. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS. UPDATED ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS IS HELPING A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY. THE DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT
TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THINGS REMAIN STEAMY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NEARLY THE SAME...IN
THE UPPER 60S. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE CWA...AS WELL...SO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED WITH THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THICK MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA...DO EXPECT ENOUGH THINNING LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG...MAINLY
IN THE VALLEYS...THROUGH DAWN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A DEEP LOW SPINNING NORTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE STRONG RIDGING IS BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FAST FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING ALONG FROM WEST TO EAST. THE STRONGEST WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AND HAS PUSHED HEIGHTS DOWN OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TODAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...EVEN AS HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...A
COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND DIP THEM TEMPORARILY.
GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A
LEAN ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIFTING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO
EAST KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CWA TO KEEP A DECENT...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND THEN NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COME BACK
NORTHEAST. LATER TONIGHT...DO ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AROUND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE MODERATES OUR
RECENT WARMTH...THOUGH TODAY WILL BE THE NICER DAY DUE TO MOST SEEING
MUCH DRIER HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM AND TONIGHT FOR SOME SPECIFIC
POINTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...SIMILARLY LOW IN THE NORTH...
THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM WESTERN KY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN TN. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN
UPTICK IN THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR 0Z
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ARE STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING ANY KIND OF AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...STUCK BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CONUS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER CENTRAL KY. THIS WILL ALSO WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SUPPRESSED AND
WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE ACROSS KENTUCKY. INSTEAD...THESE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NEARLY WEST TO EAST AND STRAIGHT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IF ALL HOLDS TRUE...THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL FINALLY START MOVING EASTWARD AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING SOME DEEPER TROUGHING TO TAKE FORM OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...AND THEN EVENTUALLY THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID
WEEK. HOWEVER...BY THIS POINT...MODELS REALLY START TO LOSE
AGREEMENT...SO WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE GIVEN ALL BLEND
SOLUTIONS.
THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD START TO IMPACT KENTUCKY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT WITH
ONLY CHANCE TSRA WORDING. THOUGH WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE
BETTER LIFT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS STILL
HAVING A HARD TIME PINPOINTING ANY EXACT TIMING OF ENTRANCE OR EXIT
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD...BUT DO EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO
BE CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO IF THERE IS A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...IT WILL BE BRIEF.
A TREND WILL DEVELOP. THE SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST TO WEST
THROUGH KY...A BRIEF LULL WILL OCCUR...AND YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS TUESDAY SYSTEM CORRELATES WITH THE DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD.
USUALLY AN UPTICK IN FORCING WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM AS IT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SO OUT OF SYNC AT THIS POINT THAT NONE OF THEM
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...INSTABILITY...AND TIMING ARE ALL UP IN THE AIR
STILL AT THIS POINT UNTIL MODELS COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT. IF
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER
THE REGION...WITH CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL PUT QPF
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TUESDAY
AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AND
SO FAR HAS ONLY OCCURRED NORTH OF I 64. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MVFR RANGE...AND EVENTUALLY THE INTO VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST 5 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA AND
DRY AIR FILTERS IN. A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LOZ AND
SME DURING THE FIRST 5 HOUR OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 6Z TO 18Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION SOME MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR OR LOWER FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. OTHER THAN THE FIRST 5 HOURS AND THE WINDOW WHERE
FOG IS POSSIBLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1218 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TODAY AND CROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE: RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE
BEGUN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AROUND PORTLAND
AND WILL ARRIVE INTO DOWNEAST PARTS OF THE CWA BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MADE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND QPF WITH THE
MAIN CHANGE BEING TO RAISE THE POPS AND MOVE UP THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION`S ARRIVAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE
PLACEMENT OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREAS OF FOG
A NUISANCE DOWNEAST AND ON THE COAST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE RESIDE. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR DID QUITE WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP AS DID THE CANADIAN GEM. THIS FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIFTING OUT THE CWA TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVE
OUT OF THE NERN US AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE COOLING DOWN AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NAM SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE GFS POINT TO
THE POTENTIAL OF TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE W AND NW AREAS. SB/MUCAPE PROGGED TO HIT 250 J/KG AND TOTAL
TOTALS HIT AROUND 50 W/KIS IN THE UPPER 20S. PLUS THERE WILL BE
SOME FORCING TO TRIGGER THINGS. SMALL HAIL COULD BE A RISK IF THE
LATER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS TREND. DECIDED TO CARRY TSTMS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BUT LEFT OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING ATTM.
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY. FURTHER E AND S, A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN/SHOWERS AS THE LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS SEEING 70F IF THE SUN DECIDES TO
PEEK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA W/THE RISK OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.
QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS DATABASE
WHICH SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
DOWNEAST AREAS W/THE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A 500 MB LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SB CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO BE 500-1000J/KG WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S. FREEZING
LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OF THE
POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDED ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. FOG WILL BE A ISSUE FOR KBGR & KBHB THIS MORNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO GO VFR ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO IFR EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT W/FOG AND RAIN.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED BUT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
SWELL AS THE PERIODS CONTINUE TO BE 8-10 SECONDS. THE E SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SOME AND DECIDED TO
BRING THE SWELL UP TO A RANGE OF 4-5 FT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
453 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF UPPER MI THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SD/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THERE WAS SOME DISRUPTION TO
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH FROM MCC ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WAS EVIDENT BY GRAVITY WAVES SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...THE 12Z SUITE
OF MODELS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...SO CONCERNS ABOUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ARE MINIMAL.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH HAS INDUCED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NW WI AND FAR WEST UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THIS EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HANDLED PRECIP PATTERNS WELL OVER
THE LAST 18 HOURS...SO HAVE USED IT TO NARROW IN ON REGIONS OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THE RAP CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST ON SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS HOUGHTON AND AS FAR EAST
AS IMT AND ISHPEMING THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE NE...THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR AND DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
LAGGING 850 HPA TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CLEARING BEHIND THE H5 TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE H8 TROUGH STALLING AND
KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA...SO
CONTINUED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE HEATING
AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA...MORE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR CWA. WEAK S TO SW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE BREEZES
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...AND ALSO KEEP A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
FRI NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTING
FROM NRN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA NEAR
THE WI BORDER IN THE EVENING...A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND 700-500 MB QVECTOR
CONV INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
250-300 MB JET THAT SLIDES FROM NW ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES BAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI FOR
SOME TSRA...PER MODEL MUCAPE VALUES. HOWEVER...THUNDER IS LESS
LIKELY IN WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SUPPORTED BY 850-700 MB FGEN THAT IS
EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH POPS TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. INCREASING MID CLOUDS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR AS PWAT VALUES
CLIMB FROM NEAR 0.25 INCH TO 0.50 INCH.
MON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PCPN CHANCES GIVEN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DRY GFS/GEM AND WET ECMWF WHICH BRINGS A
STRONGER AND MORE PHASED MID LEVEL TROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS. FOR
NOW...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE(CONSENSUS) POPS WERE INCLUDED.
TUE-THU...A DRY PERIOD IS MORE LIKELY FROM TUE INTO WED AS RIDGING
AGAIN TAKES OVER. A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THU
BRINGS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND
RETURN OF MOISTURE THAT COULD BRING PCPN TO THE AREA. MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WED NIGHT
INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER
MN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. EACH SITE CAN EXPECT BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A
LIGHT SHOWER IN THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE AT
IWD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER LOWER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERAL S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF UPPER MI THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY MUCH OF
THE TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SD/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THERE WAS SOME DISRUPTION TO
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH FROM MCC ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WAS EVIDENT BY GRAVITY WAVES SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID...THE 12Z SUITE
OF MODELS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...SO CONCERNS ABOUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ARE MINIMAL.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH HAS INDUCED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NW WI AND FAR WEST UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THIS EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HANDLED PRECIP PATTERNS WELL OVER
THE LAST 18 HOURS...SO HAVE USED IT TO NARROW IN ON REGIONS OF
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THE RAP CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST ON SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS HOUGHTON AND AS FAR EAST
AS IMT AND ISHPEMING THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE NE...THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR AND DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. A
LAGGING 850 HPA TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CLEARING BEHIND THE H5 TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE H8 TROUGH STALLING AND
KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA...SO
CONTINUED ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE HEATING
AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA...MORE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR CWA. WEAK S TO SW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE BREEZES
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...AND ALSO KEEP A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
THE LATEST 09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP REVEALS TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE
UPSTREAM. ONE WAS LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS AND A SECOND WAS MOVING
THROUGH SRN ALBERTA. THE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING BRINGING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BEFORE LIFTING NE ACROSS MANITOBA TO
HUDSON BAY LATE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PROPEL A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT EVENING
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUN
MORNING.
FRIDAY MORNING...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASED WAA ASSOC WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AT THE NOSE OF A 25 KT 8H JET MAX..ALONG WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN SOME ISOLD SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI
TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHRA EXPECTED FRI MORNING OVER NCNTRL
COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. INSTABILITY IS
FAIRLY LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING TSRA WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.
FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW LIFTING
NE THROUGH NRN MANITOBA TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL PUSH A WEAKENING SFC
COLD FRONT TOWARD WRN UPPER MI LATE FRIDAY WHICH WILL REACH THE
WESTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. LTL TO NO MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...RISING
5H HGTS...AND INCREASING MID-LVL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COULD INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE FIND IT HARD TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
BREAKING OUT OVER FAR WEST MAINLY ALONG THE WI BDR SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MID-LVL
MOISTURE AND Q-VECT CONV INCREASES LATE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DRIVING THROUGH SCNTRL CANADA AND ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER FAR WEST.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LVL TROUGH WILL
PROPEL THE SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON
SATURDAY. INCREASED MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTENING ALONG THE SFC
FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
THE CWA. BEST MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT
UPPER JET TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE WESTERN CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA LATE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH MAY ROB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION AND THUS LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA. SINCE
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ACROSS THE AREA WILL ONLY MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE WEST HALF SHOULD END UP WITH SUNNY
SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH PWAT
VALUES AS LOW OF 0.25 INCH OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL FCST AREA...EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE ON MIN TEMPS WITH SOME MID
30S TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER THE TYPICAL WRN INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FROST BUT DID NOT INCLUDE AS THIS
TIME AS I WAS NOT SURE WHETHER THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN
MID-HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL
CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS WHICH MAY TEMPER COOLING SOME.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY AND KEEP
CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH MODEL SNDGS SHOWING DRY LOW TO MID
LVLS...ONLY EXPECT SOME INCREASED MID-HIGH CLOUDS.
A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND ITS ASSOC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN WED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER
MN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. EACH SITE CAN EXPECT BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A
LIGHT SHOWER IN THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE AT
IWD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER LOWER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERAL S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO SW MN THAT WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE MPX AREA
THIS EVENING WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS ON
INITIAL THETA-E SURGE MOVING INTO ERN MN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD NOT
MAKE TO MUCH PROGRESS INTO WISCO AS IT CONTINUES TO RUN AWAY FROM
THE BETTER INSTABILITY. FARTHER WEST...A SFC PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS
ERN SODAK HAS SEEN INSTABILITY BUILD ALONG IT...WITH MLCAPES NOW UP
TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. MOST HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING WHAT RADAR IS SHOWING NOW...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ELEVATED ZONE OF INSTABILITY. BULK SHEAR IS
MARGINAL AT BEST...WITH THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING JUST 20-30
KTS OF BULK SHEAR. THIS SHEAR WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR 1-1.5 INCH HAIL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...IF A STORM CAN LATCH ON TO ANY SFC
BOUNDARIES WITHIN THE TROUGH...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE HIGHER VALUES OF THE SPC
NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER /NST/ ALONG THE MN/SD BORDER. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO GET ABOUT AS FAR NE AS THE MN RIVER VALLEY...WHICH
COINCIDES WITH WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A BRIEF CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CALM DOWN PRETTY
QUICK AFTER SUNSET AS THERE WILL BE NO LLJ TO HELP FUEL STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
INSTEAD...THE BIG THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MN. GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE
DAKOTAS WASHES OUT OVER MN. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ONCE WE CLEAR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OUT OF THE AREA. CENTRAL MN
HAS THE MOST CONCERN FOR FOG...AS THIS IS WHERE THE MOST RAIN FELL
TODAY /ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM DOUGLAS UP INTO TODD COUNTIES/. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON
IN CENTRAL MN...SO WE WILL NOT HAVE FAR TO GO TO START DEVELOPING
FOG. A BIT UNCERTAIN AS TO JUST HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE...SO
ISSUED NO HEADLINES...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
VISIBILITY TRENDS.
FOR FRIDAY...OUR DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
QUESTION FOR WHERE STORMS DEVELOP IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE COLD
FRONT BE BY THE AFTERNOON. SAID COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS WRN NODAK AND CURRENT BLENDED FORECAST GRIDS HAVE THIS FRONT
NEAR A RWF/MILLE LACS LAKE LINE BY 21Z. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO GET UP TO AROUND 80...WE WILL HAVE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH TOMORROW...WITH THE NAM/GFS SHOWING MLCAPE BUILDING TO BETWEEN
2000 AND 3000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH H85 WINDS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...WE WILL AGAIN HAVE MARGINAL SHEAR TO WORK WITH...SO IT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY WHERE COULD SEE MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE TYPE
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THRU MOST OF MPX CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...
CUTTING OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHC OF TSRA IN
THE SE MPX CWA. THIS POST FRONTAL PRECIP. SHOULD SLOWLY WORK
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME CHGS IN THE
FORECAST CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
REMAINS AND ALLOWS FOR A SYSTEM TO BRUSH ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER.
MODEL CONTINUITY PROBLEMS EXIST WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHRTWV MOVING
SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EC HAS MORE ENERGY AFFECTING MPX CWA
COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS IS BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
JET WHICH IS SLOWER AND STRONGER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS. EVEN THE LATEST GFS/GEM HAVE TRENDED FURTHER TO
THE NORTH COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH WX SYSTEM AS
WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW IS
CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AFFECTING MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS THRU NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WET AND COOLER PATTERN FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SHOWERS WEST OF I-35 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL APART AS THEY
WORK INTO ERN MN AS THEY RUN AWAY FROM INSTABILITY AND UPPER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SE SODAK. BESIDE
THAT SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ALSO A SFC TROUGH NEAR THE I-29
CORRIDOR. BUILDING INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS COMBINED WITH THE FORCING FROM THE SFC AND UPPER FEATURES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT STORMS IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS OUT WEST PER THE HRRR. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO FOLLOWED
ITS IDEAS FOR DECAYING THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS OVER ERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT STORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST BY 20Z. FOR
TONIGHT...BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE SFC
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL STALL OUT OVER WRN MN AS THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES QUITE BAGGY OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THAT...SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT AS WELL. GIVEN RAINS SO FAR...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG OVER CENTRAL MN
OVERNIGHT AS THE GFSLAMP IS HINTING AT WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR VSBYS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY AFTER 18Z WHEN THEY DO
DEVELOP.
KMSP...LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR...WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY OFF
TO THE WEST FIZZLING OUT OVERHEAD BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR SHRA IN THAT WINDOW. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN HOW ACTIVITY THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN MN WILL
EVOLVE. BUT GIVEN CURRENT COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN...SUSPECT THE HRRR MAY BE BRINGING ANY ACTIVITY TOO FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED JUST
WEST OF MSP...SO WILL LIKELY SEE TSRA IN THE AREA AT THE TAIL END
OF THE TAF...BUT LEFT ANY MENTION OUT AS CONFIDENCE IN
PLACEMENT/TIMING WITH ANY ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF 27-30 HOURS OUT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC IFR/MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
122 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
FROM LAST EVENING HAS DIED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS THE KEY FEATURE OF FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REGIONAL RADAR VIEW
SHOWS CONVECTION REGENERATING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS JUST OUT
AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS
WAVE WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST WITH TIME AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
FORECAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
CONVECTION NEAR ABERDEEN IS EXPECTED TO GROW BUT ITS SOUTHERN
EXTENT LOOKS TO BE MORE LIMITED BASED ON THE LATEST HOPWRF AND
HRRR SOLUTIONS. THIS AREA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT MOST
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ABOUT REDWOOD
FALLS UNTIL LATER INITIATION EXTENDING SOUTH OCCURS LATE THIS
MORNING. HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE AGREED THAT SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE POPS WAS NECESSARY
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL NEAR 1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DECENT PV
ANOMALY WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...AS WILL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND DECENT FGEN IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. SO THIS
FORCING WILL HELP GET SOME ACTIVITY STARTED AND TAP IN TO THE
INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO GENERALLY
EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE TODAY. AS THE LINE
MOVES EAST TOWARD WISCONSIN...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MAY VERY WELL DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY REACH EAU
CLAIRE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
PREVALENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL MARK THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS WEAK IMPULSES TRACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE BELOW NORMAL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD SNEAK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO THE FROPA.
ALSO EXPECT ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY/MOISTURE/FORCING TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE JET STRUCTURE BECOMES CONDUCIVE TO
IMPRESSIVE 250-700MB DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE PER BOTH 05.00Z
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONCENTRATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOCATED
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONT/TROUGH FROM FRIDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AS CAA ENSUES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY OVERALL WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE PARADE ARRIVES ON MONDAY. HAVE NOT SEEN
A GREAT DEAL OF CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING ON THIS ONE...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL TEMPORAL/SPATIAL
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
TUESDAY BRINGS WEAK BUILDING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AS PLAINS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AHEAD OF A
WESTERN TROUGH. TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CREEPING INTO THE LOW AND MID
70S. ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY MID WEEK...BUT
NOTABLE STRENGTH/TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE WET...BUT THAT COULD SHIFT
BACKWARD OR FORWARD IN TIME BY 24 HOURS AS MODELS HONE IN ON A
SCENARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
SHOWERS WEST OF I-35 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL APART AS THEY
WORK INTO ERN MN AS THEY RUN AWAY FROM INSTABILITY AND UPPER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SE SODAK. BESIDE
THAT SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ALSO A SFC TROUGH NEAR THE I-29
CORRIDOR. BUILDING INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS COMBINED WITH THE FORCING FROM THE SFC AND UPPER FEATURES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT STORMS IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS OUT WEST PER THE HRRR. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO FOLLOWED
ITS IDEAS FOR DECAYING THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS OVER ERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT STORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST BY 20Z. FOR
TONIGHT...BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE SFC
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL STALL OUT OVER WRN MN AS THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES QUITE BAGGY OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THAT...SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT AS WELL. GIVEN RAINS SO FAR...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG OVER CENTRAL MN
OVERNIGHT AS THE GFSLAMP IS HINTING AT WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR VSBYS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY AFTER 18Z WHEN THEY DO
DEVELOP.
KMSP...LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR...WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY OFF
TO THE WEST FIZZLING OUT OVERHEAD BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR SHRA IN THAT WINDOW. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN HOW ACTIVITY THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN MN WILL
EVOLVE. BUT GIVEN CURRENT COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN...SUSPECT THE HRRR MAY BE BRINGING ANY ACTIVITY TOO FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED JUST
WEST OF MSP...SO WILL LIKELY SEE TSRA IN THE AREA AT THE TAIL END
OF THE TAF...BUT LEFT ANY MENTION OUT AS CONFIDENCE IN
PLACEMENT/TIMING WITH ANY ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF 27-30 HOURS OUT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC IFR/MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
120 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014
...Another Round of Storms Late Tonight and Friday...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
The convective complex that brought severe weather to the region
this morning had moved off to the southeast. With a stabilized
airmass left in the wake of this storm complex only expect
isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this
afternoon. Severe weather is not expected this afternoon.
Focus turns to next potential round of storms and heavy rainfall
later tonight and Friday. More to come with the next discussion.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
Active morning of weather across area this morning. Training
convection extending from the Pittsburg, KS/Joplin, MO area
southeastward toward Branson has produced numerous reports of
hail and very heavy rainfall. Additional isolated storms have
redeveloped over south central Missouri.
Main forecast focus is the developing severe thunderstorm complex
over central Kansas. This system is quickly getting its act
together this morning and will continue to accelerate east,
closely following forward propagating system motion vectors
(currently at 50-60kt to the east southeast).
This convective complex will continue to move into a favorable
environment. There is no lack of thermo ahead of this system with
MUCAPE around/above 2000 J/kg from areas along and south of Nevada
to West Plains. MUCAPE will actually increase a bit this morning,
with the RUC suggesting around 3000 J/kg by the mid/late morning
hours. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50 kt will ensure continued storm
organization. While low level shear is a bit light/disorganized,
low level theta-e differences in the mid/upper 20s C are suggested
by the short term models which indicates good wind potential.
The weak low level shear does keep 0-3km shear vectors in the
20-25kt range (oriented west to east). This is not ideal for
mesovortex production, but it is still plausible to see
mesovorticies with any west to east surges embedded within the
line.
Locations most prone to seeing this squall line will be areas
(roughly) along and south of Nevada to West Plains. Timing wise,
it looks like this system will enter the western portions of the
outlook area by 8 AM, with a progressive acceleration to the east
through the morning hours. Current estimates place the line around
the highway 65 corridor around 10 AM, south central MO by noon.
These will definitely need to be revised as this system matures
and accelerates.
Hazards...the biggest risk will be wind gusts to 70mph. Localized
areas of stronger winds are possible, especially considering the
increase in low level theta-e differences. Hail will likely be
tough to come by, but a few stones to quarter size are possible.
At this point the tornado risk is on the low side given expected
0-3km shear vector orientation and strength. That said, we do have
multiple boundaries in place and line interactions are possible.
As a result, will continue with a few tornadoes possible.
Additional activity is expected tonight as another MCS looks to
develop from convection refiring over KS/OK. This will pose yet
another wind risk. If this does materialize as expected, a flash
flood watch will need to be considered.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
As has been advertised, Friday through (at least) the weekend will
feature a very active weather pattern. Shortwaves will pass
through a largely zonal flow in periodic fashion. 00z suite of
model agrees with the overall pattern in general. The devil, of
course, will be in the mesoscale details with respect to exact
positioning of the synoptic scale front and shear/instability
profiles.
Bottom line timing from 00z models. Scattered showers/storms are
expected to redevelop during the heat of the day Friday. A
convective complex passage Saturday (originating from the central
Plains). Additional thunderstorm complexes are possible Saturday
night into Sunday, although trust in details at this juncture is
low.
Heading into next week, the ECMWF and GEM produce a cutoff low
over the Midwest during the first half of the week. This will keep
our area unsettled with additional rainfall possible. The GFS is
an outlier keeping the pattern progressive. The current forecast
sides with the cutoff low. Temperatures will remain seasonable
from Friday through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
Pilots flying to area terminals can expect improving conditions
this afternoon in the wake of the morning storms. However
localized areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible.
Another round of thunderstorms will develop late tonight and may
impact the terminal sites during the overnight hours. MVFR
conditions will become more prevalent late tonight into Friday
morning.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA TODAY WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
BOTH DAYS...ALONG COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S
TO POSSIBLY NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1044 AM EDT THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A
PATCH OF PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS... CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST VERMONT AT THIS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE ENDED AND
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES OUT TO
SEA SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODELS SHOW A COLD
POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW. ALREADY SEEING PLENTY OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE NORTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...SO EXPECTING CLOUDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE NOW MOSTLY SUNNY. HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE SEEING
MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT VERY WELL
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS THINKING WITH EARLY MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BTV CWA IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN AN
UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND A SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE DELMARVA REGION
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH STAYS SOUTH AND WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACTS
TO THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORNING SHOWERS PUSHING
THROUGH THE SPRINGFIELD VT AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTL BORDER
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VT. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MEAGER SURFACE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG...SO REALLY NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO. WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN
ALOFT SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT THURSDAY...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE`LL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AS IT
SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGER. LOWS WILL
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...BUT COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. SHOWERS POP UP AGAIN MID-DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE TO MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND MOISTURE
AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH MORE SO ON THE NORTHERN
GREENS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY THOUGH A TAD WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S FOR SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...DESPITE MODEST DIFFERENCES HERE AND
THERE...MAIN THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY...TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. MOST
PROBLEMATIC CONTINUES TO BE THE GLOBAL MODELS` HANDLING OF
EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SAT/SUN
TIME FRAME...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS FEATURE EVOLVES IN THE
MEAN WSW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SEVERAL BULLSEYES
IN PRECIPITATION AND ATMOSPHERIC BUOYANCY ALONG THE FEATURES TRACK
SUGGEST CONTINUED FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ULTIMATELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON TIMING/SPEED
ISSUES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN LINE
WITH THE GEFS AND HPC APPEARS THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...SUNDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST/WARMEST DAY WITH
ALL SPOTS INTO THE 80S AS 18Z BLENDED 925 MB TEMPS AVERAGE AROUND
20C. AS AFOREMENTIONED MIDWESTERN ENERGY AND GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH TRACK EAST...INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER APPEAR REASONABLE BY MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK TOWARD SEASONAL EARLY JUNE NORMS. BY MID
WEEK...IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONT TO APPROACH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACRS SE VT. CRNT
OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS ACRS THE SLV. THINKING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND IMPACT SLK/MPV WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL
AT BTV/PBG AND RUT. TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL MOISTURE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY AFT 03Z AT SLK/MPV WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY
AND IFR POSSIBLE BTWN 06Z-12Z FRIDAY. GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRIEFLY BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTN...BEFORE DECREASING BLW 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR BY
EARLY AFTN.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY..
ISOLATED SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT MPV WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR WL
PREVAIL FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY. NEXT SYSTEM WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS
AND POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES ON MONDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
06Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
610 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT ACTIVITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3 PM FOLLOWS...LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FIRE NEAR RALEIGH AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE FORMING
ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS AS THE ENTIRE AREA IS DROPPING SOUTH. THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS WILMINGTON AND ANDY NVA ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. CITING ALL OF THE
FORCING...STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS BY THIS
EVENING...IN FACT I HAVE INCREASED VALUES TO REPRESENT SLIGHTLY MORE
CONFIDENCE. SPC HAS ELEVATED THE AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK
HIGHLIGHTING MORE OF A WIND THAN HAIL THREAT. NICE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED BY THEN. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE PER EXPECTED CONVECTION AND
CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WRF AND GFS HAVE VERY DIFFERENT OPINIONS
REGARDING THE SOUTHERN TERMINUS OF THE COLD FRONT`S JOURNEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WRF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR SC COUNTIES WHILE THE
GFS TAKES IT DOWN INTO GA. FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THESE
IDEAS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS FRIDAY...TAPERING
TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY. EITHER WAY...MAX TEMPS
EACH DAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH 85
TO 90 EXPECTED FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY. LOWS EACH
NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID 60S
POSSIBLE NE SAT NIGHT. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...MAX AND MIN TEMPS
COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST AND DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES
MUCH MORE TOLERABLE THAN RECENT DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND JUST FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO PROVIDE FOR A DECENT START TO THE WEEK ON SUNDAY
BUT LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME LOW END CHC PCP
OVER PORTIONS OF SC...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST AND SHORTWAVE PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT FRONT WILL INCREASE CHC OF CONVECTION FOR MON AND MORE
SO FOR TUES AS FRONT REACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT MAY
BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WITH CHC OF PCP LINGERING INTO WED.
OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF EARLY TO
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MON
THROUGH WED. TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO 90 OVER
INTERIOR SC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VERY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGEST STORMS
COULD BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED LATER TODAY. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...WILL ADD TEMPO MVFR/TSRA FROM 20-23Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND FROM
21-00Z AT THE COASTAL TERMS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR
WITH STRONGER STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH TONIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
FROPA SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 09-12Z FRIDAY...AS WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
MORE ABUNDANT RAINFALL TODAY. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE VFR WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 PM...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
3 PM FOLLOWS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH JMPN7 CONSISTENTLY HOVERING AROUND 20 KNOTS.
41110 IS CLOSE TO FIVE FEET SO THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY
STABLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO A
MAXIMUM OF 6-8 FEET AS THE FETCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ABOUT 18 MORE
HOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW TO NE AND THEN E FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE
OF FRIDAY MORNING WHEN 4 TO 5 OR EVEN 6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE...SEAS
LESS THAN 4 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST E-NE WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTH BY MONDAY AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. ALTHOUGH A 9 SEC EASTERLY SWELL WILL EXIST
IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
PRIMARILY FORMED THROUGH A 4-5 SEC WIND CHOP FROM THE
EAST...BECOMING SOUTH ON MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT INCREASE THROUGH MON IN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
533 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND LINGER OVER NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 530 PM THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. MAIN LINE OF
STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD APPROACH
THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS
OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
PER LATEST HRRR-3KM AND RAP MODELS...CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY
DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST AND LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS
UNTIL COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
OR SO. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE WET GROUND AND A QUICK DROP-OFF IN WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TOWARD MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW POP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT WHERE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH LOW/MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...REGION REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY
THAT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH ON SAT BUT HIGH PRES SHOULD DOMINATE. THE
DETERMINISTIC 04/12Z GFS/ECM REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL...HOWEVER THE EC ENSMOS POPS INDICATE SOME SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM. NAM AND CMC ARE ALSO HINTING AT THIS
POSSIBILITY SO HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 70.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH MON AND STALL OR WASH
OUT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS AS INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THREAT
FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT AS AREA WILL BE
UNDER A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS RISE TO
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS MON THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90 DEGREE RANGE...WITH LOWS UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGES ARE SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
HVY AT TIMES WHICH MAY BRING CONDITIONS BRIEFLY BELOW VFR. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BTW 00 TO 03Z.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER TAF SITES THAT HAVE
RECEIVED RAIN. HAVE ADDED MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES. ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS...IT WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...THEREFORE
BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PC SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE TO E THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TYPICAL ISO/SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS MON
THROUGH MID WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO A SUMMERLIKE PATTERN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM THURSDAY...HAVE UPDATED FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS FRONT
DIVES SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND WINDS ARE BECOMING NW/N. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH ACTIVE STRONG CONVECTION UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
29 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET AND DIAMOND BUOY WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING
AS HIGH AS 9 TO 10 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
FORECAST FROM THE VARIOUS NEAR-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFF
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES BY AROUND 06Z OR SO. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS.
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE SCA FOR
THE REMAINING WATERS EXPIRE AT 11 PM TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...WINDS WILL BE NE 5-15 KT THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT
BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT SE
SUN WITH SEAS 2-3 FT THROUGH SUN. WINDS VEER FURTHER TO S ON MON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAKENING FRONT. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
150-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BM
MARINE...CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
345 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FIRE NEAR RALEIGH
AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS AS THE
ENTIRE AREA IS DROPPING SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
WILMINGTON AND ANDY NVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED. CITING ALL OF THE FORCING...STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL
AREAS BY THIS EVENING...IN FACT I HAVE INCREASED VALUES TO REPRESENT
SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE. SPC HAS ELEVATED THE AREA INTO A SLIGHT
RISK HIGHLIGHTING MORE OF A WIND THAN HAIL THREAT. NICE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED BY THEN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE PER EXPECTED
CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WRF AND GFS HAVE VERY DIFFERENT OPINIONS
REGARDING THE SOUTHERN TERMINUS OF THE COLD FRONT`S JOURNEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WRF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR SC COUNTIES WHILE THE
GFS TAKES IT DOWN INTO GA. FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THESE
IDEAS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS FRIDAY...TAPERING
TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY. EITHER WAY...MAX TEMPS
EACH DAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH 85
TO 90 EXPECTED FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY. LOWS EACH
NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID 60S
POSSIBLE NE SAT NIGHT. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...MAX AND MIN TEMPS
COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST AND DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES
MUCH MORE TOLERABLE THAN RECENT DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND JUST FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO PROVIDE FOR A DECENT START TO THE WEEK ON SUNDAY
BUT LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME LOW END CHC PCP
OVER PORTIONS OF SC...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST AND SHORTWAVE PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT FRONT WILL INCREASE CHC OF CONVECTION FOR MON AND MORE
SO FOR TUES AS FRONT REACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT MAY
BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WITH CHC OF PCP LINGERING INTO WED.
OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF EARLY TO
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MON
THROUGH WED. TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO 90 OVER
INTERIOR SC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VERY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGEST STORMS
COULD BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED LATER TODAY. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...WILL ADD TEMPO MVFR/TSRA FROM 20-23Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND FROM
21-00Z AT THE COASTAL TERMS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR
WITH STRONGER STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH TONIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
FROPA SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 09-12Z FRIDAY...AS WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
MORE ABUNDANT RAINFALL TODAY. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE VFR WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH JMPN7 CONSISTENTLY HOVERING AROUND 20
KNOTS. 41110 IS CLOSE TO FIVE FEET SO THE FORECAST REMAINS
RELATIVELY STABLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO A MAXIMUM OF 6-8 FEET AS THE FETCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
ABOUT 18 MORE HOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW TO NE AND THEN E FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE
OF FRIDAY MORNING WHEN 4 TO 5 OR EVEN 6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE...SEAS
LESS THAN 4 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST E-NE WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTH BY MONDAY AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. ALTHOUGH A 9 SEC EASTERLY SWELL WILL EXIST
IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
PRIMARILY FORMED THROUGH A 4-5 SEC WIND CHOP FROM THE
EAST...BECOMING SOUTH ON MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT INCREASE THROUGH MON IN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
336 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND LINGER OVER NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
OUR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF LINES OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA IN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LI VALUES
AROUND -5 AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. HAVE HAD
REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THESE STORMS IN PITT AND
TYRRELL COUNTIES. PER LATEST HRRR-3KM AND RAP MODELS...CONVECTION
SHOULD SLOWLY DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST AND LINGER INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS UNTIL COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA AROUND 06Z OR SO. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z
THEN TAPER OFF NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND A QUICK DROP-OFF IN WINDS BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TOWARD MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW POP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT WHERE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH LOW/MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM THURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF EASTERN NC
FRI MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT FRI TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THOUGH HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AS 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A
MODERATE VORTMAX WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON IN MEAN
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NOT CONFIDENT IN SHOWER/TSTORM PRODUCTION WITH THE
FEATURE BUT TRENDS SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL SLIGHTLY FRI YIELDING TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
REMOVED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED NE OF THE AREA WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
SENSIBLE WX ACROSS EASTERN NC. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAINING MILD...UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MON
AND STALLS/WASHES OUT WEST OF THE AREA...WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING SW
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OVER APPALACHIA. SW FLOW PERSISTS TUES
INTO TUES NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WED.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WEST OF HWY 17 MON/TUES AFTERNOONS AS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND
THREAT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO ABOVE CLIMO AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGES ARE SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
HVY AT TIMES WHICH MAY BRING CONDITIONS BRIEFLY BELOW VFR. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BTW 00 TO 03Z.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER TAF SITES THAT HAVE
RECEIVED RAIN. HAVE ADDED MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES. ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS...IT WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...THEREFORE
BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURS...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE TO E FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING SE MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
COLD FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE/SW FLOW COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS MON AFTERNOON WITH REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS/CEILINGS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH ACTIVE
STRONG CONVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUNDS.
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 29 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET AND DIAMOND BUOY
WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING AS HIGH AS 9 TO 10 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY.
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FORECAST FROM THE VARIOUS NEAR-TERM MODELS
INDICATE THAT WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES BY AROUND
06Z OR SO. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE SCA FOR THE REMAINING WATERS EXPIRE AT 11 PM
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURS...THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT N THEN NE
EARLY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE 5-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI WITH SEAS SUBSIDING 2-4 FT. DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SAT SHIFTING SE SUN AND
SEAS 2-3 FT THROUGH SUN. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
150-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BM
MARINE...CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
144 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FIRE NEAR
RALEIGH AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS
AS THE ENTIRE AREA IS DROPPING SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS WILMINGTON AND ANDY NVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. CITING ALL OF THE FORCING...STILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS BY THIS EVENING...IN FACT I HAVE
INCREASED VALUES TO REPRESENT SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE. SPC HAS
ELEVATED THE AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING MORE OF A WIND
THAN HAIL THREAT. NICE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED BY THEN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE PER EXPECTED CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MAKING IT INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A CHC OF SHWRS THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER SLOWLY AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE FRI AFTN. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE
SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE TO PROVIDE FURTHER CHC FOR
SHOWERS. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH
MOST OF THE WEATHER SOUTH AS WELL FOR LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY WITH
BOUNDARY OVER SC/GA CAUGHT BETWEEN BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NORTH AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN THE
FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY
TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
THE SOUTH AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO EXACT INFLUENCE.
WILL DEFINITELY KEEP CLOUDS AND PCP ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
FRI WITH A BIT MORE OF AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR NC FOR NOW. BY
SATURDAY AFTN EXPECT PCP MAINLY SOUTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CLOSE. CLOUD COVER AND PCP MAY LIMIT TEMPS DURING THE
DAY BUT WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH MID 80S MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY AND CLOSER TO 70 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND JUST FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO PROVIDE FOR A DECENT START TO THE WEEK ON SUNDAY
BUT LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME LOW END CHC PCP
OVER PORTIONS OF SC...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST AND SHORTWAVE PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT FRONT WILL INCREASE CHC OF CONVECTION FOR MON AND MORE
SO FOR TUES AS FRONT REACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT MAY
BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WITH CHC OF PCP LINGERING INTO WED.
OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF EARLY TO
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MON
THROUGH WED. TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND CLOSER TO 90 OVER
INTERIOR SC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VERY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGEST STORMS
COULD BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED LATER TODAY. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...WILL ADD TEMPO MVFR/TSRA FROM 20-23Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND FROM
21-00Z AT THE COASTAL TERMS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR
WITH STRONGER STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH TONIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
FROPA SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 09-12Z FRIDAY...AS WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
MORE ABUNDANT RAINFALL TODAY. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE VFR WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH JMPN7 CONSISTENTLY HOVERING AROUND 20
KNOTS. 41110 IS CLOSE TO FIVE FEET SO THE FORECAST REMAINS
RELATIVELY STABLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO A MAXIMUM OF 6-8 FEET AS THE FETCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
ABOUT 18 MORE HOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE S-SW WHILE WINDS TO THE NORTH WILL BE OUT OF THE N-NE.
THIS FRONT MAY REMAIN IN VICINITY OR JUST SOUTH OF WATERS WITH
WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM NE TO E THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS OFF SHORE. WITH FRONT IN VICINITY OR JUST
SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT VARIABLE WIND
CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS UP AROUND 3 TO 5 FT FRI MORNING TO DIMINISH TO 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN LATER ON SATURDAY AS WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NE-E.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST E-NE WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTH BY MONDAY AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. ALTHOUGH A 9 SEC EASTERLY SWELL WILL EXIST
IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
PRIMARILY FORMED THROUGH A 4-5 SEC WIND CHOP FROM THE
EAST...BECOMING SOUTH ON MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT INCREASE THROUGH MON IN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1239 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND LINGER
OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM THURSDAY...NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OUTPUT OF THE
HIGH-RES MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO
FIRE IN THE RALEIGH AREA AND THE 3KM HRRR AND RAP SHOWS THIS
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST TOWARD THE COAST...PERHAPS
GETTING ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH LI`S ALREADY AROUND -6 WITH
CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THE LACK TO SHEAR AND STRONG
MID-LEVEL FORCING MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SVR STORMS BUT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH SOME ISOLATED SVR
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WITH THE HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...ANY STRONG STORMS WILL FEATURE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT DID
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY
AROUND 90 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 139 AM THU...MESO MODELS SHOWING FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY THEN
NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SO SKIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR...BUT REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER...INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM THURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF EASTERN NC
FRI MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT FRI TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THOUGH HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AS 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A
MODERATE VORTMAX WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON IN MEAN
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NOT CONFIDENT IN SHOWER/TSTORM PRODUCTION WITH THE
FEATURE BUT TRENDS SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL SLIGHTLY FRI YIELDING TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
REMOVED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED NE OF THE AREA WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE
SENSIBLE WX ACROSS EASTERN NC. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAINING MILD...UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MON
AND STALLS/WASHES OUT WEST OF THE AREA...WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING SW
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OVER APPALACHIA. SW FLOW PERSISTS TUES
INTO TUES NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WED.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WEST OF HWY 17 MON/TUES AFTERNOONS AS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND
THREAT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO ABOVE CLIMO AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 624 AM THU...MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS DISSIPATED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREA TAFS. SCATTERED AREA OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN TENNESSEE. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING THE MAIN BUILD OF MCS TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL TROUGH/POSSIBLE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM CLOUDS MAY KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP TAFS DRY DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES STARTING MID AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS THAT WILL FORM. SUB
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BOTH CIGS AND VIS INSIDE THE STORMS. FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WIND SHIFTING TO
NORTHERLY AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURS...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE TO E FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING SE MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
COLD FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE/SW FLOW COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS MON AFTERNOON WITH REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS/CEILINGS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. SEAS AT DIAMOND BUOY HAVE
BUILT TO 10 FEET. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 29 KNOTS AT DIAMOND
BUOY AT 28 KNOTS OFF OREGON INLET. NO CHANGES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS TIGHT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT CONTINUES AHEAD OF SLOW-
MOVING WAVY COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS VA/WV/KY. FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX. WIND AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURS...THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT N THEN NE
EARLY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE 5-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI WITH SEAS SUBSIDING 2-4 FT. DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SAT SHIFTING SE SUN AND SEAS
2-3 FT THROUGH SUN. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
150-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
356 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED INTERACTION BETWEEN A SURFACE FRONT...CAPPING
INVERSION...AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO THE WEST...WILL LEAD TO GREAT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SEEMINGLY THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR OUTLOOK. IT GENERATES
STORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...THEN BRINGS THEM
EAST WHILE CONVERTING THEM INTO AN MCS. IF THIS HAPPENS...MOST OF
OUR OKLAHOMA COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE RAIN...AND POSSIBLY STRONG
WINDS.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAKS ARE LIKELY. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE TIMING AND LOCATION. CHANCES DO
RISE...HOWEVER...OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVES PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA ON
TUESDAY...PROBABLY BRINGING A RELATIVELY MILD AND DRY DAY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 91 73 88 / 50 40 40 40
HOBART OK 72 98 72 91 / 40 20 40 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 100 74 100 / 30 10 20 20
GAGE OK 67 91 69 83 / 50 40 70 40
PONCA CITY OK 71 85 72 84 / 50 50 70 60
DURANT OK 74 94 73 92 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1254 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.
UPPER LEVEL VORT CENTER SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST SD LATE THIS
MORNING WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL WAS SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE UPPER VORT CENTER. ADJUSTED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND UPDATED FORECAST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WEAK TROF ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SITUATED OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LIMITED CIN...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOSS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SO DESPITE A 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...PROFILES SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY FRIDAY.
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...AND SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE
UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. H85
TEMPERATURES DIP TO +5C BY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THOUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
FAIRLY COOL AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION OF VCTS AT KATY FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING LOWERING CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
102 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH 5PM THIS AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO/SQUALL LINE
MOVING AT 60 MPH WILL MOVE INTO RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN 1-2PM...THE JONESBORO AREA AROUND
2PM...THE MEMPHIS METRO AND JACKSON AREA BETWEEN 3-4PM...AND
FINALLY IN THE TUPELO AND CORINTH AREA BETWEEN 4-5PM. DAMAGING
WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SECONDARY
THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS PRODUCED
TWO TO A LITTLE OVER THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCORDING TO
MORNING COOP REPORTS. ADDITIONAL COMPLEX IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AND PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THIS LINE...TO INCLUDE EXPECTED
DISTURBANCES/TRAINING STORMS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY COULD
EASILY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MIDSOUTH PROMPTING THE NEED FOR A FFA.
A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CWA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOW ECHO IN SW MISSOURI/NW ARKANSAS TODAY. THIS LINE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BEING WARNED WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THE
OZARKS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF I-40. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEHIND THIS LINE LATER TONIGHT ADDING
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
JAB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. POPS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO LIKELY IN THIS ZONE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY
IMPACT THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ENHANCED
SEVERE WEATHER RISK AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AND
SHEAR INCREASES. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WIND
DAMAGE...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD...AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES
MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED.
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
JLH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS INDICATE THAT
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. MORE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ATTM. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE AIDED BY WARM
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SYNOPSIS...
TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RING OF FIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT COVERAGE...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE THE ELUSIVE PUZZLE
PIECES ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR
SO.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND GROW INTO A MCS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAIN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL
VERY DEPENDENT ON EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AND SOME
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION.
DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AND MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
A MCS. THE NEXT WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH LESS COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MENTIONABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE INTERIVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE FIRST MAIN COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BE NEAR
DAYBREAK EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 KTS WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS 10-15 KFT.
SWC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
353 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
Mid-level heights have decreased slightly from those observed
yesterday but temperatures continue to climb above normal across the
western half of the Lone Star State. The flow aloft over West
Central TX is light owing to the presence of the subtropical ridge,
but strong westerlies north of the ridge continue to promote lee
troughing, maintaining a persistent, southerly flow. This has kept
dewpoints well into the 60s, which combined with these warm
temperatures, has resulted in heat indices near 100 degrees.
Some enhancement has been noted in the water vapor imagery over the
southern High Plains. There isn`t much curvature in the flow but
mesoscale ascent tied to the right entrance region of the upper
tropospheric jet streak over the Central Plains is the likely
culprit. At the surface, a weak cold front has moved south and was
near a Hobbs, to Spur, to Childress line as of 3 PM. There isn`t
currently much in the way of a cu field along this boundary but it`s
worth noting that the RAP and several of the hi-res CAMS are trying
to develop thunderstorms this evening, mainly west and northwest of
Sweetwater. The cap remains quite strong and any thunderstorm threat
is conditional on surface temps being warm enough to break said cap.
However, given the steering flow being slightly north of west,
convection is unlikely across the SJT CWA and the dry forecast has
been retained. Farther south, expect low clouds to develop again
late tonight, spreading north to near a San Angelo to Brownwood line
by sunrise. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.
The 800-750 mb thermal ridge (with temps of 19-22C) overspreading
the area today is progged to cool by a few degrees on Friday, but
we`ll maintain above normal temperatures once again, with highs in
the mid to upper 90s. Any clouds that develop overnight will erode
by midday, leaving a scattered cu field over the east during the
afternoon hours with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. South winds will
continue at 10 to 20 mph.
Johnson
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
The main forecast concerns are with rain chances Saturday night
through Monday night, with a potential for strong/severe storms
and locally heavy rainfall. Overall, appears that the northeastern
third or half of our area could have the best rain chance and
rainfall amounts.
Will have one additional hot day Saturday, with the broad, flat
ridge aloft still holding in place. This ridge will then weaken and
be suppressed farther to the south and southwest, as weak shortwaves
move across the southern Rockies, southern Plains and Texas.
Models are at odds on whether convection will develop south into
our northern counties Saturday night, and on how far south the
effective surface cold front will sag. Continuing with slight
chance PoP for our northern counties (along/north of Interstate 20).
Low-level jet would help to sustain convection well into the night.
The best chance and coverage of convection across our area looks
to develop across our northern counties late Sunday afternoon,
expanding southeast Sunday night. This may be ehnanced by a shortwave
tracking into the area, and may have a MCS Saturday night sustained
by low-level jet. With uncertainty in the forecast timing and
placement of weak shortwaves and on where the effective front will
be, raising PoPs cautiously Sunday night across much of our area,
with low PoPs continuing on Monday.
Northwest flow aloft develops on Monday and continues through
Tuesday. Have held off carrying slight chance PoP beyond Monday
night, but this will need to be monitored. The setup aloft may be
conducive for showers/thunderstorms to develop over the higher
terrain of northeastern new Mexico during the afternoon hours,
especially especially if coincident with the arrival of a weak
shortwave. The steering flow aloft would allow this convection to
move southeast toward (possibly into) our area.
Still looking hotter and drier for the middle to late part of
next week, when the upper high over the Baja Peninsula and
western Mexico tries to expand northeast again into Texas.
Have trended hotter with the maximum temperatures, but not to
the extent indicated by the GFS.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 73 97 73 96 74 / 10 5 10 10 20
San Angelo 73 98 73 98 73 / 5 0 5 5 10
Junction 72 95 73 94 73 / 0 0 0 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
349 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
Mid-level heights have decreased slightly from those observed
yesterday but temperatures continue to climb above normal across the
western half of the Lone Star State. The flow aloft over West
Central TX is light owing to the presence of the subtropical ridge,
but strong westerlies north of the ridge continue to promote lee
troughing, maintaining a persistent, southerly flow. This has kept
dewpoints well into the 60s, which combined with these warm
temperatures, has resulted in heat indices near 100 degrees.
Some enhancement has been noted in the water vapor imagery over the
southern High Plains. There isn`t much curvature in the flow but
mesoscale ascent tied to the right entrance region of the upper
tropospheric jet streak over the Central Plains is the likely
culprit. At the surface, a weak cold front has moved south and was
near a Hobbs, to Spur, to Childress line as of 3 PM. There isn`t
currently much in the way of a cu field along this boundary but it`s
worth noting that the RAP and several of the hi-res CAMS are trying
to develop thunderstorms this evening, mainly west and northwest of
Sweetwater. The cap remains quite strong and any thunderstorm threat
is conditional on surface temps being warm enough to break said cap.
However, given the steering flow being slightly north of west,
convection is unlikely across the SJT CWA and the dry forecast has
been retained. Farther south, expect low clouds to develop again
late tonight, spreading north to near a San Angelo to Brownwood line
by sunrise. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.
The 800-750 mb thermal ridge (with temps of 19-22C) overspreading
the area today is progged to cool by a few degrees on Friday, but
we`ll maintain above normal temperatures once again, with highs in
the mid to upper 90s. Any clouds that develop overnight will erode
by midday, leaving a scattered cu field over the east during the
afternoon hours with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. South winds will
continue at 10 to 20 mph.
Johnson
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
The main forecast concerns are with rain chances Saturday night
through Monday night, with a potential for strong/severe storms
and locally heavy rainfall. Overall, appears that the northeastern
third or half of our area could have the best rain chance and
rainfall amounts.
Will have one additional hot day Saturday, with the broad, flat
ridge aloft still holding in place. This ridge will then weaken
and be suppressed farther to the south and southwest, as shortwaves
move across the southern Rockies, southern Plains and Texas.
Models are at odds on whether convection will develop south into
our northern counties Saturday night, and on how far south the
effective surface cold front will sag. Continuing with slight
chance PoP for our northern counties (along/north of Interstate 20).
Low-level jet would help to sustain convection well into the night.
The best chance and coverage of convection across our area looks
to develop across our northern counties late Sunday afternoon,
expanding southeast Sunday night. This may be ehnanced by a shortwave
tracking into the area, and may have a MCS Saturday night sustained
by low-level jet. With uncertainty in the forecast timing and
placement of weak shortwaves and on where the effective front will
be, raising PoPs cautiously Sunday night across much of our area,
with low PoPs continuing on Monday.
Northwest flow develops on Monday and continues through Tuesday.
Have held off carrying sliht chance PoP beyond Monday night, but
this will need to be monitored. The setup aloft may be conducive
for showers/ thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain of
northeastern new Mexico during the afternoon hours, especially
with the arrival of a weak shortwave. The steering flow aloft
would allow this convection to move southeast toward (possibly
into) our area.
Still looking hotter and drier for the middle to late part of
next week, when the upper high over the Baja Peninsula and
western Mexico tries to expand northeast again into Texas.
Have trended hotter with the maximum temperatures, but not to
the extent indicated by the GFS.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 73 97 73 96 74 / 10 5 10 10 20
San Angelo 73 98 73 98 73 / 5 0 5 5 10
Junction 72 95 73 94 73 / 0 0 0 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...
SLIGHT COOLING SPREAD IN BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY.
IT HAS BEEN HEATING UP SOME ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NOW
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH FROM AROUND O`DONNELL THROUGH POST TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE. AIRMASS THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
A BIT SHORT OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. SHORT TERM RAP SOLUTION...
HOWEVER...HAS INSISTED ON BREAKING THUNDERSTORMS OUT ALL DAY NEAR
ABOVE-MENTIONED BOUNDARY WHICH GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE BASE AND VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT CERTAINLY IS NOT A GIVEN. WE WILL HOLD TO A
CONDITIONAL LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THIS ZONE DURING THE EVENING
WHICH WOULD GIVE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER TONIGHT WOULD FOLLOW THE PATH OF PROJECTED MCS
FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL OUTFLOWS AND THUNDER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY EDGING
INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO LAY ANOTHER FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON OUR DOOR-STEP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A MORE MOIST
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PROBABLY PRECEDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MCS-TYPE STORMS FROM VICINITY RATON MESA OR SANGRE DE CHRISTI
TOWARDS OUR AREA LATE TOMORROW. MINUSCULE TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR
TOMORROW FOLLOWING ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND IMPROVING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GRAZE THE REGION AND
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS IN/NEAR THE AREA.
INITIALLY...FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES MAY RESIDE TO OUR NORTH...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE THE COMPLEX COULD CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY THERE FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD
THEN MATERIALIZE LATE SATURDAY AS THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED SURFACE
BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHWARD AND ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH DETAILS REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS...THERE
APPEARS A GOOD SHOT OF ANOTHER MCS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE NWP TENDS TO FAVOR THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR THIS MCS...AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS
WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...THOUGH IF THE 12Z NAM IS
CORRECT...THE FRONT AND CONVECTION WILL BE SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH
INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND WITH THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW LIKELY TO OUR SOUTH...THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND
UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. MODEST INSTABILITY AND
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING PWATS WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY GRADUALLY WANE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND EVEN THOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL...LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO OUR WEST TO PERSIST INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE TEMPERED BACK POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION FOR
MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN TRY
AND BUILD BACK THIS WAY FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO...THOUGH ONE OR MORE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY COULD PERHAPS
IMPROVE STORM CHANCES LOCALLY. CONFIDENCE ON IF/WHEN STORM CHANCES
WOULD PEAK NEXT WEEK IS LOW...AND HAVE KEPT THE POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY /ASSUMING
THE COLD FRONT IS NOT WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE/...WITH A NICE COOL
DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEHIND THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD FOLLOW NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK...THOUGH THE GFS DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAK FROPA TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 95 65 89 61 / 20 20 40 20 50
TULIA 67 95 67 88 63 / 20 10 30 20 50
PLAINVIEW 69 94 69 92 64 / 20 10 20 20 40
LEVELLAND 68 96 69 95 66 / 20 10 20 20 30
LUBBOCK 71 97 70 96 67 / 20 10 10 20 30
DENVER CITY 67 97 68 99 67 / 20 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 66 96 69 97 67 / 20 10 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 73 99 72 95 68 / 20 10 30 20 50
SPUR 72 97 71 96 68 / 20 10 10 20 30
ASPERMONT 73 100 73 99 70 / 20 10 10 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/23