Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/04/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
920 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR COOLING TODAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO DRIZZLE
AT THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FROM MID WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 AM PDT MONDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
CENTER OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A MODEST MARINE LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH STRATUS WELL DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING THE STRATUS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO BURN-OFF ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN UNDER
CLOUD COVER ALL DAY LONG WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING INTO THE
LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S TO MID/UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS
REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
TYPICAL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE ARE EXPECTED. THE ONGOING FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...TRUE TO ITS NAME JUNE
GLOOM APPEARS TO BE TAKING OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS, FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED SO FAR. SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOWS THAT IT IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS AND
LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS WITH A COVERAGE PATTERN CLOSE TO OUR
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF THE
NORTHERLY GRADIENTS GREATLY EXCEEDING THE WESTERLY PIECE, THE
ROLES HAVE REVERSED ALLOWING FOR THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE DIRECT
FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS, COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
APPROACHING OUR AREA, WILL LEAD TO HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AT MANY INLAND SPOTS. LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS.
SIMILAR THE EARLY THIS MORNING, FOR TONIGHT GOING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE. IN FACT, LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF THE DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE WIDESPREAD
NATURE OF IT IN THE FORECAST GOING AROUND THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS END UP GETTING AROUND 0.05" OUT OF IT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS BOTH INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PROGRESSES OFF TO THE EAST. WORTH NOTING THAT EARLY RUNS OF THE
MODELS HAD BEEN DISAGREEING WITH THE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW (GFS
RIDGE, WHILE ECMWF WAS FAVORING MORE ZONAL FLOW). GFS HAS TRENDED
MORE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT WE ARE LESS LIKELY TO
SEE HOT WEATHER THIS WEEK.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK KEEPS US DRY (OUTSIDE OF DRIZZLE). ECMWF SLIDES
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BY NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE AT THE COAST WITH
TEMPS COOLING BACK CLOSER TO WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT MONDAY...ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE BAY AREA. N-S GRADIENT IS WEAKER AND THE ONSHORE
GRADIENT IS STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED
CLOSE TO 2K FEET PER FT ORD PROFILER. THEREFORE...THE STRATUS IS
FILLING IN A LITTLE MORE THAN YESTERDAY. ONE SIMILARITY TO
YESTERDAY MORNING IS THE HOLE OVER KSFO AGAIN. THAT BEING
SAID...THE HOLE APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING AS STRATUS CREEPS IN FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY CIGS THIS
MORNING. CLEARING OF STRATUS COULD BE LATER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN
THE CURRENT GRADIENT SET UP. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...DECIDED TO ADD A TEMPO FOR KSFO AS CIGS SLOWLY
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE AND 1KM WRF SUGGEST SOME
PATCHY CIGS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING OF ANY CLOUDS AROUND 17-18Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CIGS AT 1K FEET WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH POSSIBLE CLEARING 17-18Z.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS 500-700FT THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING CLOSE TO 18-19Z. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP CIGS IN
AT KMRY ALL DAY...BUT THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES THROUGH MIDWEEK. NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD LATE
THIS WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR COOLING TODAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO DRIZZLE
AT THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FROM MID WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...TRUE TO ITS NAME JUNE
GLOOM APPEARS TO BE TAKING OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS, FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED SO FAR. SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOWS THAT IT IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS AND
LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS WITH A COVERAGE PATTERN CLOSE TO OUR
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF THE
NORTHERLY GRADIENTS GREATLY EXCEEDING THE WESTERLY PIECE, THE
ROLES HAVE REVERSED ALLOWING FOR THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE DIRECT
FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS, COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
APPROACHING OUR AREA, WILL LEAD TO HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AT MANY INLAND SPOTS. LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS.
SIMILAR THE EARLY THIS MORNING, FOR TONIGHT GOING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE. IN FACT, LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF THE DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE WIDESPREAD
NATURE OF IT IN THE FORECAST GOING AROUND THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS END UP GETTING AROUND 0.05" OUT OF IT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS BOTH INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PROGRESSES OFF TO THE EAST. WORTH NOTING THAT EARLY RUNS OF THE
MODELS HAD BEEN DISAGREEING WITH THE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW (GFS
RIDGE, WHILE ECMWF WAS FAVORING MORE ZONAL FLOW). GFS HAS TRENDED
MORE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT WE ARE LESS LIKELY TO
SEE HOT WEATHER THIS WEEK.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK KEEPS US DRY (OUTSIDE OF DRIZZLE). ECMWF SLIDES
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BY NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE AT THE COAST WITH
TEMPS COOLING BACK CLOSER TO WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT MONDAY...ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE BAY AREA. N-S GRADIENT IS WEAKER AND THE ONSHORE
GRADIENT IS STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED
CLOSE TO 2K FEET PER FT ORD PROFILER. THEREFORE...THE STRATUS IS
FILLING IN A LITTLE MORE THAN YESTERDAY. ONE SIMILARITY TO
YESTERDAY MORNING IS THE HOLE OVER KSFO AGAIN. THAT BEING
SAID...THE HOLE APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING AS STRATUS CREEPS IN FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY CIGS THIS
MORNING. CLEARING OF STRATUS COULD BE LATER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN
THE CURRENT GRADIENT SET UP. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...DECIDED TO ADD A TEMPO FOR KSFO AS CIGS SLOWLY
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE AND 1KM WRF SUGGEST SOME
PATCHY CIGS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING OF ANY CLOUDS AROUND 17-18Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CIGS AT 1K FEET WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH POSSIBLE CLEARING 17-18Z.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS 500-700FT THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING CLOSE TO 18-19Z. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP CIGS IN
AT KMRY ALL DAY...BUT THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES THROUGH MIDWEEK. NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD LATE
THIS WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
334 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WHILE THE COAST
WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN TWO LOWS. ONE JUST OFF THE
COAST WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING FROM THE NORTH AND A SECOND LOW
OFF THE SRN CA COAST WHICH WILL MOVE INLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEING PULLED BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND THE LOWS. TIMING OF LOWS TO MOVE INLAND IS
IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING, GFS SHOWING MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE 500-1800J/KG RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
ALONG THE RIDGE LINE BETWEEN TRINITY AND SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
FURTHER NORTH. LAST PERIOD OF 06Z RUN OF HRRR VALID AT 21Z(2 PM)
SHOWING ISOLATED CELLS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
ONLY CONCERN IS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A MORE STABLE LAYER ABOUT
600 MB WHICH MAY CAP SOME OF THE VERTICAL MOTION BUT LEFT SCATTERED
TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. VERY LITTLE SHEAR SO EXPECT MORE PULSE TYPE
TSTMS. AIRMASS STARTING OUT DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT WITH VERY
SLOW CELL MOVEMENT EXPECT AIRMASS TO QUICKLY MOISTEN UP WITH WET
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TSTMS WILL END AFTER SUNSET AS TROUGH
MOVES INLAND AND LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. YET ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY BUT AIRMASS IS
NOT AS UNSTABLE AND LEFT SLIGHT CHC TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. BY
WED, RIDGE TRYING TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER BAY AREA BUT THIS LOOKS TOO WEAK AND TOO FAR SOUTH AND WILL
JUST PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MAINLY MENDO
COUNTY. FOR LATER INTO THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, A DRIER NW FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED INLAND.
AT THE COAST, UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE
MUCH CHANGE ON THE STRATUS FIELD WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WITH
SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM INLAND STARTING
WED AS RIDGE BUILDS WITH HIGHS JUMPING INTO THE MID 90S. AT THE
COAST, NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED. DEAN
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AND
INLAND UP THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. THIS CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN SPREAD N
ACROSS KCEC ON S FLOW. THE S FLOW HAS SINCE DROPPED BACK OFF...BUT
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD ON UNTIL BREAKING UP LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG BY SUNRISE AT
KCEC AND KACV...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY DROPPING BELOW 3SM. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AS THERMAL TROF AXIS HAS
SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND RELAXED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
HOWEVER...GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KCEC DURING THE
AFTERNOON. /SEC
&&
.MARINE...AS MENTIONED...THE THERMAL TROF AXIS HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO
THE COAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE S PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE LEFT THE GALE WARNING IN PLACE FOR
THE N OUTER WATERS DUE TO GUSTS. HAVE SCALED BACK TO A HAZARDOUS
SEAS WARNING FOR THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE
AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME...HAVE SHIFTED TO A GALE WATCH. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED BY THE DAY SHIFT AS MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A MARKED UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS BY THAT TIME AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. STRONG NORTHERLIES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL
AS DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDO AND PT ST GEORGE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE 16 TO 18 FT RANGE IN THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH PERIODS RANGING FROM 9 TO 11 SECONDS. /SEC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ450-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ470.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
PZZ475.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1009 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL THEN BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION TOMORROW BEFORE LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS W TO E FUELED BY LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BENEATH AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST DIFFLUENT FLOW. THROUGH ENCROACHING INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AT THE SURFACE...INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
UPPER-LEVELS IS WORTHY OF NOTE TO THE E. CAN NOT RULE OUT EMBEDDED
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LINE OF SHOWERS UNDERGOING ENOUGH
FORCING TO YIELD THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. THUS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL OF URBAN AREAS. MANY
THANKS TO THE FINE FOLKS AT NESDIS FOR THE COLLABORATION.
TO THE W...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AREAS OF
DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARENT WITH MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES AND WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT PER JET
DYNAMICS /NOTING DIFFLUENCE PER RRQ ACROSS UPSTATE NY/. WILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS ENERGY CLOSELY AS IT CROSSES THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
REGION AND WHETHER THERE IS AN ENVIRONMENT TO THE E THAT ALLOWS IT
TO SUSTAIN. EXPECTING SIMILAR OUTCOMES TO ANY ACTIVITY AS WE HAVE
ALREADY SEEN THIS EVENING...ONCE ENTERING INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY
REGION...STORMS COLLAPSE.
OTHERWISE...LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A DISTINCTIVE BANK OF CLOUDS
APPROACHING THE CAPE. HRRR MODEL RUNS CAPTURE THIS QUITE WELL AS A
LOW-CLOUD DECK AT ABOUT 300 TO 500 FT AGL WITH ACCOMPANYING DENSE
FOG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE. UPSTREAM METARS
DO SHOW THE CLOUDS AT AROUND 1 KFT...BUT NOT THE LOW VISIBILITIES.
CONSIDERING THE UPPER-40 DEWPOINTS ACROSS WARMER WATERS AROUND THE
LOW- TO MID-50S...MY GUT TELLS ME LESSER FOG IMPACT...MORE LOW
CLOUDS. IF WINDS WERE S INSTEAD OF ESE WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...
WOULD FAVOR FOG. DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO RISE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOW
50S...SO AM STILL CONSIDERING JUST LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE VERY SLOW TO CLEAR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT...ON SHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY HOLD IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN
A FEW LINGERING SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
MEANWHILE...A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE AND
DRY MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD PREVENT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. SO OTHER
THAN THE LOW RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE
LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE COOL SPOTS SHOULD BE BOSTON AND THE NORTH
SHORE...WHERE HIGHS MAY ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH ONSHORE
FLOW/LOW CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS DURING THE EVENING...OTHER THAN THE LOW
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER. THINGS GET INTERESTING VERY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED IN
OUR REGION...MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF FORCING/CONVERGENCE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW POPS
INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION BY 12Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OVERALL
PATTERN SUGGEST A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD...FROM NEGATIVE NAO/AO
BLOCKED PATTERN TO START...TO A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
NEUTRAL PATTERN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MESOSCALE AND TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES...THE 03.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYNOPTICALLY. THEREFORE...WILL BE USING A
CONSENSUS BLEND OF GUIDANCE AS A BASELINE FOR THIS UPDATE...ALONG
WITH SOME OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR PERSISTENCE.
THE BLOCKING CUTOFF WHICH HAS BEEN SITTING S OF NOVA SCOTIA IS
ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT AND PHASE WITH ROBUST
SHORTWAVE WED INTO THU. THIS PHASING STYLE...ANOMALOUS FOR EARLY
JUNE SUGGESTS A SFC LOW PRES TRACK TO THE S OF NEW
ENGLAND...SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF THE COLD SEASON.
THEREFORE...WILL LOOK FOR A COOL RAINY START FOR THU UNTIL THE
PHASED SYSTEM IS OFFSHORE...THANKS TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
RESULTING FROM THE PHASE. AFTER THE WAVE MOVES E A MODEST...ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT FLATTENED RIDGE WILL TAKE OVER BY THE MID WEEKEND AND
HOLD IN PLACE UNTIL YET ANOTHER COOL CANADIAN WAVE APPROACHES IN
THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT
THE LONG TERM...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WET BOOKENDS.
DETAILS...
THU INTO THU NIGHT...
LOW PRES WILL TRACK WITHIN CLOSE VICINITY OF THE S COAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS LOW PRES IS ASSOCIATED WITH ROBUST SHORTWAVE...40
KT SLY LLJ AND HIGH PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES /ABOUT 1-2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. THE LOW ALSO DEEPENS THANKS TO THE
ROBUST NATURE OF THE ATTENDANT WAVE AND FEED OF MOISTURE/LATENT
HEAT WITHIN THE LLJ. GIVEN THIS EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL...WET WX
FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THU. THE DEEPENING NATURE OF
THE LOW ALSO SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL PRECIP SHIELD BUT WILL LIKELY BE
MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES CENTER...AND THEREFORE
CLOSER TO THE S COAST. WITH THE HIGHER PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR
MODEST CONVECTION...SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THIS FEATURE IS RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING...SO SUSPECT THAT IT IS
LIKELY TO BE GRADUALLY ENDING FROM W TO E BY THU EVENING AND INTO
THU NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE H85 TEMPS COULD SUPPORT MID 70S...EXPECT
THE DRAW OF COOL AIR...AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER TO MAINTAIN
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S.
FRI AND SAT...
ALTHOUGH CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BRING RAIN FOR THU IS
EXPECTED TO BE E BY FRI AND...NOTE CYCLONIC CURVATURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN AS WELL AS COOL TEMPS ALOFT /H5 IS BETWEEN -15C AND -20C/.
THEREFORE ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...ADVECTING DRIER AIR AS IT DOES SO...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR
MODEST DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ON EACH DAY.
THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE HIT OR MISS AS DECREASING DWPTS WILL
LIMIT SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THE AREAL COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE
HIGHER ON FRI GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SUPPRESSES THE
INSTABILITY ON SAT...SO NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AND SOME LOCATIONS
MAY STAY MOSTLY DRY. MIXING SHOULD REACH H85 AT LEAST EACH
DAY...WHERE TEMPS HOVER AROUND +9C ON FRI AND +10C ON SAT.
THEREFORE...EXPECT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...EXCEPT NEAR COASTAL
LOCATIONS WHICH MAY BE EFFECTED BY DAILY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
SUN...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING MID LVL RIDGE AND ATTENDANT SFC PRES ARE
EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SUN...SHIFTING TO THE E BY
SUN EVENING. THEREFORE DRY WX PREVAILS WITH WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
MON INTO TUE...
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OR NATURE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP FOR THIS
PERIOD REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN THE DEPTH AND AND
SPEED OF AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...DO HAVE MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE IS THE THREAT FOR UNSETTLED AND WET WX
SOMETIME MON INTO TUE. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM ANOTHER LOW PRES TRACK
TO THE S...TO A NORTHERN TRACK WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION WITH SOME CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
2Z UPDATE...
SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA SLOWLY PROGRESSES W TO E. LOWERING TO MVFR
WITH TEMPO IFR-LIFR IMPACTS POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CT-RIVER VALLEY THAT HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY RAINS. OTHERWISE
MONITORING AN IFR CLOUD DECK APPROACHING THE CAPE FROM THE E. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH VSBY IMPACTS. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
WEDNESDAY....MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ITS
SOME MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG
THE EAST COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW MAY HOLD IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN SOME LOCALES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING MAY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 6Z. THIS A RESULT OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST 05-06Z.
THEN EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN WITH GRADUAL REDUCTION TO MVFR WHICH
WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.
KBDL TAF...TSRA WILL END 01-02Z AND GIVE WAY TO SOME REMNANT
-SHRA. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...LIFTING BACK TO VFR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE DAY IN RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM W TO E. WINDS SHIFT FROM SLY DURING THE DAY
TO NWLY BY OVERNIGHT.
FRI THRU SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/T-STORMS ON
FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
LEFT OVER SCA SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG
MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
AREAS OF FOG MAY BE A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY EARLY WED MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN LATER WED NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH AREAS OF RAIN
AND A FEW ISOLATED WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN SO INTO FRIDAY. A SWELL
WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 5-7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND LINGER INTO
FRI. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED INTO FRI.
SAT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES GRADUALLY CRESTS OVER THE WATERS WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
150 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM (REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TAKES ON A
ZONAL CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH A
DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. FINALLY...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE FLOW TURNS NORTH INTO
LONGWAVE RIDING IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN IN THIS
VICINITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE ONLY INFLUENCE THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE TO OUR LOCAL WEATHER IS THE ARRIVAL OF WAVES OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERHEAD THAT ARE WRAPPING AROUND ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THROUGH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AND
THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP OVERALL DIURNAL INSTABILITY DOWN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A CONTINUED MOIST PROFILE WITH A PW
VALUE OF AROUND 1.85". THE MID-LEVELS HAVE CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS (A TREND THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY)...AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
NOW UP TO AROUND -7C. THESE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY HOLD BACK UPDRAFT STRENGTH ALOFT. IN FACT THE LAPSE
RATE THROUGH PARTS OF THE CONVECTION COLUMN ARE MOIST ADIABATIC OR
LESS. THESE WOULD BE CONSIDERED POOR LAPSE RATES TO EXPECT ANY
VIGOROUS CONVECTION...AND SIGNIFICANT CHARGE SEPARATION FOR FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. WILL NEED TO GET DECENT CONVECTIVE CORES UP OVER 20KFT
BEFORE WE ENCOUNTER ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE IN THE CLOUD LAYER...AND NOT
SURE WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFTS ABOVE THIS LAYER THE REST
OF THE DAY. ALL THIS LEANS AGAINST MUCH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...BUT NOT AGAINST RAIN ITSELF. THE COLUMN IS VERY MOIST...AND
EVEN A FEW SUNNY BREAKS FOR THINNER CIRRUS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST. THE GRADIENT IS RATHER TIGHT ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SW
GULF. THE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE EAST TO ONCE AGAIN PREVENT
THE DEVELOPMENT OR INLAND PENETRATION OF A SEA-BREEZE. ILL-DEFINED
SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY IS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS CHANGE IS REALLY ONLY DENOTED
BY A SMALL DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
(GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-4) WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES...A
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY THE PAST FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND
CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. IT WILL BE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT THE PASSING SHOWERS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND THE NATURE COAST...BUT THE ACTIVITY FOR
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
NOT MUCH AS CHANGED IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY GOING FORWARD INTO
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO INDICATED THAT
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WEST AND SOUTH WITH TIME DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL PUSH THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF. EXPECT
LAND BASED SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNSET...BUT FOR THOSE PLANNING AN OFFSHORE BOATING EXCURSION OFF
THE SUNCOAST...THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GO ALL NIGHT...AIDED BY
BROAD SYNOPTIC DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS BY DAWN...AND LOWER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FOR TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHOVED SOUTH AND
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY
DAY. BASED ON THE LATEST NWP...HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE ALL RAIN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. IF SHOWERS ARE GOING TO
OCCUR...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE
COUNTY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...EVEN FOR THESE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...DO NOT
EXPECT A WET DAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN...DOES STILL LOOK LIKE A
LOT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA...AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...AS
OPPOSED TO LOWER 90S.
&&
.MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST 00Z CYCLE. GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT THE DEEPEST COLUMN
MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE
IN MOST LOCALES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE ALONG WITH
CONVERGENCE FROM THE GULF COAST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MERGER MAY
RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN TOWARD
KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS DOES SHOW A MORE
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AND GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEPING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA...PREFERRED TO LEAN THE FORECAST
HEAVILY IN THIS DIRECTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POPS SOLIDLY IN THE
CHANCE RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY TERMINALS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND THE KFMY/KRSW AREA WITH
DECREASING CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH ONE TRAVELS. PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FORECAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ONCE
THE SUN RISES TUESDAY MORNING...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGES SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A SURGE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERLY SURGES...YOU CAN EXPECT MODERATE
SEAS IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET AND 1 TO 2 FEET
ALONG THE COASTLINE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THESE EASTERLY SURGES...SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS CAUSING GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...HIGH SEAS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
BELOW CAUTIONARY OR HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS THIS WEEK. SHOWER COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO BE
MUCH LESS THAN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED LATELY. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 88 71 89 / 20 10 10 10
FMY 71 87 70 90 / 40 30 10 30
GIF 70 87 69 89 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 71 86 70 88 / 30 20 10 20
BKV 67 88 66 90 / 10 10 10 10
SPG 74 87 74 89 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA
MARINE...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1035 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TAKES ON A
ZONAL CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH A
DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. FINALLY...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE FLOW TURNS NORTH INTO
LONGWAVE RIDING IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN IN THIS
VICINITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE ONLY INFLUENCE THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE TO OUR LOCAL WEATHER IS THE ARRIVAL OF WAVES OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERHEAD THAT ARE WRAPPING AROUND ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THROUGH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AND
THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP OVERALL DIURNAL INSTABILITY DOWN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A CONTINUED MOIST PROFILE WITH A PW
VALUE OF AROUND 1.85". THE MID-LEVELS HAVE CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS (A TREND THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY)...AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
NOW UP TO AROUND -7C. THESE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY HOLD BACK UPDRAFT STRENGTH ALOFT. IN FACT THE LAPSE
RATE THROUGH PARTS OF THE CONVECTION COLUMN ARE MOIST ADIABATIC OR
LESS. THESE WOULD BE CONSIDERED POOR LAPSE RATES TO EXPECT ANY
VIGOROUS CONVECTION...AND SIGNIFICANT CHARGE SEPARATION FOR FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. WILL NEED TO GET DECENT CONVECTIVE CORES UP OVER 20KFT
BEFORE WE ENCOUNTER ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE IN THE CLOUD LAYER...AND NOT
SURE WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFTS ABOVE THIS LAYER. NOW ALL
THIS LEANS AGAINST MUCH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...BUT NOT
AGAINST RAIN ITSELF. THE COLUMN IS VERY MOIST...AND EVEN A FEW SUNNY
BREAKS FOR THINNER CIRRUS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO BUBBLE
UP.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST. THE GRADIENT IS RATHER TIGHT ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SW
GULF. THE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE EAST TO ONCE AGAIN PREVENT
THE DEVELOPMENT OR INLAND PENETRATION OF A SEA-BREEZE. ILL-DEFINED
SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY IS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS CHANGE IS REALLY ONLY DENOTED BY
A SMALL DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
(GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-4) WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES...A
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS IS SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. IT WILL BE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AT THE PASSING SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER OVER THE NATURE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST AND SOUTH WITH TIME
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL PUSH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONTINUED CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN
GULF. EXPECT LAND BASED SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF SUNSET...BUT FOR THOSE PLANNING AN OFFSHORE BOATING EXCURSION OFF
THE SUNCOAST...THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GO ALL NIGHT...AIDED BY
BROAD SYNOPTIC DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS BY DAWN...AND LOWER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FOR TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHOVED SOUTH AND
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY
DAY. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS NORTH AND
CENTRAL ZONES...AND 30 PERCENT DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS. EVEN THIS
POPS THIS MAY BE AGGRESSIVE. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE
SUITE AND SEE IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES ALL
TOGETHER FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. IF SHOWERS ARE GOING TO
OCCUR...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE
COUNTY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...EVEN FOR THESE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...DO NOT
EXPECT A WET DAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN...DOES LOOK LIKE A LOT OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THIS WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S...AS OPPOSED TO LOWER
90S. HAVE A GREAT MONDAY...AND ENJOY THE DRIER WEATHER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS!
&&
.MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST 00Z CYCLE. GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT THE DEEPEST COLUMN
MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE
IN MOST LOCALES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE ALONG WITH
CONVERGENCE FROM THE GULF COAST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MERGER MAY
RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN TOWARD
KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS DOES SHOW A MORE
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AND GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEPING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA...PREFERRED TO LEAN THE FORECAST
HEAVILY IN THIS DIRECTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POPS SOLIDLY IN THE
CHANCE RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THIS MID MORNING FROM KSRQ SOUTHWARD.
THE CIG HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING AND EXPECT GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF STORMS
LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END
LATER THIS EVENING. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGES SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A SURGE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERLY SURGES...YOU CAN EXPECT MODERATE
SEAS IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET AND 1 TO 2 FEET
ALONG THE COASTLINE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THESE EASTERLY SURGES...SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS CAUSING GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...HIGH SEAS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
BELOW CAUTIONARY OR HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 71 86 71 / 40 20 20 10
FMY 87 71 88 70 / 60 30 30 10
GIF 86 69 86 69 / 30 10 20 10
SRQ 88 71 87 70 / 60 20 20 10
BKV 87 68 87 66 / 30 10 20 10
SPG 85 74 86 74 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA
MARINE...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
901 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE AXIS ALONG WASHINGTON
OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF FCST
AREA SO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED TO AFTERNOON BUILD
UPS OVER HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED TODAY. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE ISLAND PARK AREA THIS
MORNING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A PRETTY NICE MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY LATE MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE
LOOKING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM AND WRF ARE
OVERDOING THINGS...WHILE THE GFS AND HRRR ARE UNDERDOING. THAT IS
WHY WE WENT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE AND
ISOLATED STORMS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A STRAY STORM IN THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR OAKLEY AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY MOVING CLOSER TO THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE STILL FOR
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OVERALL TOMORROW WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
HAILEY TO MONTPELIER LINE. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT NON-
SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME
GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SPEED
OF TOMORROW`S SYSTEM AND ITS EXIT FROM OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM PUSHES WELL EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS IT ONLY
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. THIS GREATLY AFFECTS THE AMOUNT OF
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH A SLOWER
PATTERN AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GOING BACK TO TOMORROW`S WEATHER...WE ARE
LOOKING AT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SNAKE PLAIN. WE MAY APPROACH THE LOW END THRESHOLD FOR A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT WE ARE STICKING WITH WINDS A BIT BELOW THAT WHICH
DOES MEAN THAT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THOUGH FOR
AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY TODAY
WITH SEVERAL PLACES HITTING THE LOW/MID 80S. IT WILL COOL DOWN
THOUGH TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THAT BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. KEYES
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING STILL WITH HOW FAR SOUTH A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE MAY SEE ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO.
IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES FARTHER SOUTH...WE COULD SEE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE KEEP ANY
REAL THREAT IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS. BEYOND THAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FARTHER
APART. THE ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH A SLOWER MOVING LOW ACROSS OUR AREA
AND A DECENT SHOT AT RAIN BY MONDAY. THE GFS IS A LOT QUICKER AND
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WE DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE GOING FORECAST OF ANY DEVELOPMENT
CONFINED TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RUNNING AT
OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW
80S RETURN FROM TIME TO TIME BUT 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MOST
VALLEYS WILL BE COMMON...AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES
AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND KSUN 21Z-03Z TODAY. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AT BOTH KSUN
AND KIDA. FOR KBYI AND KPIH...WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RS
FIRE WEATHER...WE BEGIN THE DAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVANCING
INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING
CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO THE SOUTHERLY
INFLUENCE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL BOOST
THE HAINES INDEX TO 6 FOR AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF BIG SOUTHERN BUTTE.
THIS WILL LAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE APPROACHING
TROUGH HAS TIME TO COOL THE AIR DOWN AND INCREASE THE HUMIDITY. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
SAWTOOTH AND SALMON-CHALLIS FOREST AREA. MOISTURE DEEPENS AND THE CHANCE
OF WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES OVER NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY MOST SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF A PICABO TO GRAYS
LAKE LINE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE ARCO DESERT AND LOWER
SNAKE PLAIN. RS
HYDROLOGY...RIVER MODELS AGAIN KEEPING ALL GAUGES BELOW BANKFULL
FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENCY IMAGERY
COMBINED WITH SNOTEL DATA INDICATES THE TETONS ARE THE LAST HOLD
OUT FOR SNOW DEPTH AND MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. SWIFT FLOWS AND
HIGH WATER ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR TRIBUTARIES AND CREEKS LEADING
TO THE MAIN RIVERS PARTICULARLY THROUGH TETON BASIN. FLOODING NOT A
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. DMH/KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
257 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE ISLAND PARK AREA THIS
MORNING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A PRETTY NICE MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY LATE MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE
LOOKING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM AND WRF ARE
OVERDOING THINGS...WHILE THE GFS AND HRRR ARE UNDERDOING. THAT IS
WHY WE WENT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE AND
ISOLATED STORMS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A STRAY STORM IN THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR OAKLEY AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY MOVING CLOSER TO THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE STILL FOR
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OVERALL TOMORROW WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
HAILEY TO MONTPELIER LINE. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT NON-
SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME
GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SPEED
OF TOMORROW`S SYSTEM AND ITS EXIT FROM OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM PUSHES WELL EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS IT ONLY
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. THIS GREATLY AFFECTS THE AMOUNT OF
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH A SLOWER
PATTERN AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GOING BACK TO TOMORROW`S WEATHER...WE ARE
LOOKING AT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SNAKE PLAIN. WE MAY APPROACH THE LOW END THRESHOLD FOR A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT WE ARE STICKING WITH WINDS A BIT BELOW THAT WHICH
DOES MEAN THAT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THOUGH FOR
AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY TODAY
WITH SEVERAL PLACES HITTING THE LOW/MID 80S. IT WILL COOL DOWN
THOUGH TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THAT BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. KEYES
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING STILL WITH HOW FAR SOUTH A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE MAY SEE ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO.
IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES FARTHER SOUTH...WE COULD SEE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE KEEP ANY
REAL THREAT IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS. BEYOND THAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FARTHER
APART. THE ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH A SLOWER MOVING LOW ACROSS OUR AREA
AND A DECENT SHOT AT RAIN BY MONDAY. THE GFS IS A LOT QUICKER AND
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WE DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE GOING FORECAST OF ANY DEVELOPMENT
CONFINED TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RUNNING AT
OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW
80S RETURN FROM TIME TO TIME BUT 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MOST
VALLEYS WILL BE COMMON...AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND KSUN 21Z-03Z TODAY. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AT BOTH KSUN
AND KIDA. FOR KBYI AND KPIH...WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WE BEGIN THE DAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVANCING
INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING
CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO THE SOUTHERLY
INFLUENCE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL BOOST
THE HAINES INDEX TO 6 FOR AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF BIG SOUTHERN BUTTE.
THIS WILL LAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE APPROACHING
TROUGH HAS TIME TO COOL THE AIR DOWN AND INCREASE THE HUMIDITY. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
SAWTOOTH AND SALMON-CHALLIS FOREST AREA. MOISTURE DEEPENS AND THE CHANCE
OF WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES OVER NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY MOST SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF A PICABO TO GRAYS
LAKE LINE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE ARCO DESERT AND LOWER
SNAKE PLAIN. RS
&&
.HYDROLOGY...RIVER MODELS AGAIN KEEPING ALL GAUGES BELOW BANKFULL
FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENCY IMAGERY
COMBINED WITH SNOTEL DATA INDICATES THE TETONS ARE THE LAST HOLD
OUT FOR SNOW DEPTH AND MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. SWIFT FLOWS AND
HIGH WATER ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR TRIBUTARIES AND CREEKS LEADING
TO THE MAIN RIVERS PARTICULARLY THROUGH TETON BASIN. FLOODING NOT A
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. DMH/KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1022 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
832 PM CDT
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO OUR WEST
PAINTING A PROGRESSIVELY MORE CLEAR PICTURE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT
IS FOR ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY SOUTH OF
A PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE. ALSO THINK THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN
INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED DOWN THOSE SOMEWHAT. HAVE
ADDED SOME TEMPORAL RESOLUTION INTO THE POPS AS A MORE CLEAR CUT
PICTURE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW FAR
NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AND FOR HOW LONG...BUT LOOKING STILL LIKE A
GOOD SOAKING FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
A POTENT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND VORT MAX ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM MANY
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NE/SOUTHERN IA/FAR NORTHERN MO. ONE EARLIER SUCH LONG-LIVED
CLUSTER THAT MOVED FROM SD THIS MORNING TO FAR NORTHERN MO NOW HAS
LIKELY PLAYED A BIG FACTOR IN KEEPING A MORE SINGLE WIDESPREAD
MCS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVE...AND KEEPING THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT PARKED NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER. THE UPPER SUPPORT AND
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LLJ AND THIS SUPPORT STILL
REALLY SCREAM TOWARD A MORPHING OF MANY OF THE WESTERN CLUSTERS
INTO A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE MCS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD..OVERTAKING SOME OF THE FURTHER EAST
CLUSTERS. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF DEEPER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BASICALLY SOUTH OF THE DVN/ILX RAOBS AND RAP DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS
OF MCS MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS...THE BRUNT OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION
WOULD PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A STILL HEALTHY CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT IS LIKELY TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 3-7 AM TIME...DRIVEN MORE BY THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THIS.
A CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTY POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS REMAINS...BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CWA
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION IT PRESENTS A POSSIBILITY OF WAKE LOW
GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF COLD POOL COMING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DIMINISHING SOME LIKELY EASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OF TWO ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE MAY GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE WI BORDER GIVEN UPPER
SUPPORT AND MID-LEVEL F-GEN. BUT DO NOT HAVE THE GREATEST FEEL FOR
THIS...SO HAVE TAPERED POPS IN THE NORTH SLIGHTLY...BUT QPF MUCH
MORE SO...INCLUDING OVER ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO. CONTINUE WITH OVER
AN INCH FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER WEATHER TAKES HOLD WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BUT
CONTINUED LAKE BREEZE COOLING THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS SETTLED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND PER 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
WAS FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL IL/IND. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A DRY/COOL EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A LAKE BREEZE BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND ADDING LAKE COOLING
AS WELL. A FAIRLY STOUT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WITH STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION PERSISTING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN EXPANSION IN CURRENT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT SEVERE STORMS
EVOLVING INTO AN MCS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA BY
EVENING...QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS A QUICK-MOVING
BOW/DERECHO COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER REGION INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT. SPC HAS JUST UPGRADED
SOUTHERN IOWA PORTION OF THE DAY 1 SEVERE OUTLOOK TO A HIGH RISK.
FOR THE WFO LOT FORECAST AREA...FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE WHICH MAY SHIFT A BIT NORTH WITH TIME DUE TO
PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH
THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT...AS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISE INTO THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. TIMING OF STORMS SHOULD BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH HOURLY HIGH-RES RAP/HRRR MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SPEEDING THE
PROPAGATION OF EVOLVING COMPLEX. IN ANY CASE...SVR/HVY RAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE A LATE NIGHT/VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING EVENT.
WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE DECREASING WITH TIME FROM NORTH-SOUTH AS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING OF COLUMN ALL EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST-NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/NORTHEAST WINDS...
RAIN AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-80. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
WARM-UP BACK TO AVERAGE TEMPS (MID-UPPER 70S) BY FRIDAY. FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL MAINTAIN LAKE COOLING WITH 60S NEAR THE SHORE BOTH
DAYS HOWEVER.
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER RIDGE OFF
TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST AS A MID-LEVEL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY-SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* SHRA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED WITH PSBL REDUCED VSBY AND VERY LOW
THREAT FOR TSRA.
* A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TO LATE AM WEDS...WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR IFR.
* GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
HAVE PULLED VCTS FROM THE TAFS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND SUPPORT THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL AREAS. CONFIDENCE
HAS LOWERED IN STEADY SHRA MAKING IT TO TERMINALS AND THUS
POTENTIAL FOR PREVAILING MVFR VSBY. MAY END UP BEING PRIMARILY
LIGHT SHRA. WOULD LIKE INCOMING SHIFT TO ASSESS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING SO HAVE LEFT IT IN FORECAST FOR NOW.
RC
FROM 00Z...
QUIET WEATHER FOR NOW OVER THE TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A
LAKE BREEZE HAVING PUSHED THROUGH ORD AND SHIFTED WINDS EASTERLY
THERE. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PROGRESSION OF LARGE COMPLEX OF SHRA
AND TSRA ACROSS NE AND IA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MOVED UP TIMING OF
SHRA A FEW HOURS FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. STILL DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA DIRECTLY IMPACTING TERMINALS BUT THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FLOWING NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
TSRA IN THE AREA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE COMPLEX
CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT IT WILL REMAIN SAFELY WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. HAVE INDICATED MVFR VSBY WITH SHRA OVERNIGHT BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT OCNL PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA.
LIGHTER SHRA COULD LINGER INTO LATE MORNING AFTER THE MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
INCREASING EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20-25
KT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. THE MARINE LAYER
BEING DRIVEN INLAND COULD RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR...WITH
CHANCES FOR IFR CONSIDERED TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. ANY LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER BY MID-
DAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTHWARD.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH IN INCREASING EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WED AM AND AFTN...MEDIUM
IN SPEEDS AND GUSTS.
* MEDIUM IN SHRA TRENDS/TIMING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED...MEDIUM-HIGH
THAT TSRA ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT TERMINALS...LOW IN PREVAILING
MVFR VSBY IN SHRA.
* MEDIUM-LOW IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WEDNESDAY AM THRU MID-
DAY...LOW IN IFR CIGS.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
A SERIES OF HIGHS AND LOWS WILL PRODUCE RAPIDLY VARYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS GENERALLY WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...THE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN A BIT OVER THE SOUTH HALF TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...A LOW CENTER
PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
LAKE. NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY WILL STAY BELOW GALE CRITERIA
BUT LIKELY WILL VARY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT STARTING BY LATE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE AFTER TOMORROW INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW CENTER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PASS NEAR THE SOUTH END OF
THE LAKE.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
835 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
832 PM CDT
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO OUR WEST
PAINTING A PROGRESSIVELY MORE CLEAR PICTURE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT
IS FOR ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY SOUTH OF
A PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE. ALSO THINK THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN
INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED DOWN THOSE SOMEWHAT. HAVE
ADDED SOME TEMPORAL RESOLUTION INTO THE POPS AS A MORE CLEAR CUT
PICTURE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW FAR
NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AND FOR HOW LONG...BUT LOOKING STILL LIKE A
GOOD SOAKING FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
A POTENT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND VORT MAX ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM MANY
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NE/SOUTHERN IA/FAR NORTHERN MO. ONE EARLIER SUCH LONG-LIVED
CLUSTER THAT MOVED FROM SD THIS MORNING TO FAR NORTHERN MO NOW HAS
LIKELY PLAYED A BIG FACTOR IN KEEPING A MORE SINGLE WIDESPREAD
MCS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVE...AND KEEPING THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT PARKED NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER. THE UPPER SUPPORT AND
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LLJ AND THIS SUPPORT STILL
REALLY SCREAM TOWARD A MORPHING OF MANY OF THE WESTERN CLUSTERS
INTO A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE MCS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD..OVERTAKING SOME OF THE FURTHER EAST
CLUSTERS. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF DEEPER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BASICALLY SOUTH OF THE DVN/ILX RAOBS AND RAP DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS
OF MCS MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS...THE BRUNT OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION
WOULD PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A STILL HEALTHY CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT IS LIKELY TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 3-7 AM TIME...DRIVEN MORE BY THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THIS.
A CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTY POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS REMAINS...BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CWA
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION IT PRESENTS A POSSIBILITY OF WAKE LOW
GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF COLD POOL COMING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DIMINISHING SOME LIKELY EASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OF TWO ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE MAY GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE WI BORDER GIVEN UPPER
SUPPORT AND MID-LEVEL F-GEN. BUT DO NOT HAVE THE GREATEST FEEL FOR
THIS...SO HAVE TAPERED POPS IN THE NORTH SLIGHTLY...BUT QPF MUCH
MORE SO...INCLUDING OVER ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO. CONTINUE WITH OVER
AN INCH FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
322 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER WEATHER TAKES HOLD WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BUT
CONTINUED LAKE BREEZE COOLING THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS SETTLED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND PER 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
WAS FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL IL/IND. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A DRY/COOL EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A LAKE BREEZE BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND ADDING LAKE COOLING
AS WELL. A FAIRLY STOUT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WITH STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION PERSISTING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN EXPANSION IN CURRENT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT SEVERE STORMS
EVOLVING INTO AN MCS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA BY
EVENING...QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS A QUICK-MOVING
BOW/DERECHO COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER REGION INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT. SPC HAS JUST UPGRADED
SOUTHERN IOWA PORTION OF THE DAY 1 SEVERE OUTLOOK TO A HIGH RISK.
FOR THE WFO LOT FORECAST AREA...FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE WHICH MAY SHIFT A BIT NORTH WITH TIME DUE TO
PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH
THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT...AS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISE INTO THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. TIMING OF STORMS SHOULD BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH HOURLY HIGH-RES RAP/HRRR MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SPEEDING THE
PROPAGATION OF EVOLVING COMPLEX. IN ANY CASE...SVR/HVY RAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE A LATE NIGHT/VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING EVENT.
WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE DECREASING WITH TIME FROM NORTH-SOUTH AS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING OF COLUMN ALL EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST-NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/NORTHEAST WINDS...
RAIN AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-80. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
WARM-UP BACK TO AVERAGE TEMPS (MID-UPPER 70S) BY FRIDAY. FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL MAINTAIN LAKE COOLING WITH 60S NEAR THE SHORE BOTH
DAYS HOWEVER.
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER RIDGE OFF
TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST AS A MID-LEVEL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY-SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* EAST WINDS AT ORD/MDW DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
* SHRA AND REDUCED VSBY WITH POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED.
* A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EARLY TO LATE AM WEDS...WITH A LOW CHANCE
FOR IFR.
* GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
QUIET WEATHER FOR NOW OVER THE TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A
LAKE BREEZE HAVING PUSHED THROUGH ORD AND SHIFTED WINDS EASTERLY
THERE. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PROGRESSION OF LARGE COMPLEX OF SHRA
AND TSRA ACROSS NE AND IA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MOVED UP TIMING OF
SHRA A FEW HOURS FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. STILL DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA DIRECTLY IMPACTING TERMINALS BUT THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FLOWING NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
TSRA IN THE AREA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE COMPLEX
CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT IT WILL REMAIN SAFELY WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. HAVE INDICATED MVFR VSBY WITH SHRA OVERNIGHT BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT OCNL PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA.
LIGHTER SHRA COULD LINGER INTO LATE MORNING AFTER THE MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
INCREASING EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20-25
KT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. THE MARINE LAYER
BEING DRIVEN INLAND COULD RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR...WITH
CHANCES FOR IFR CONSIDERED TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. ANY LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER BY MID-
DAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTHWARD.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS THIS EVE/TONIGHT...MEDIUM-HIGH ON WEDNESDAY.
* MEDIUM IN SHRA TRENDS/TIMING/VSBY IMPACTS...LOW IN TSRA
DIRECTLY IMPACTING TERMINALS.
* MEDIUM IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WEDNESDAY AM THRU MID-DAY...LOW
IN IFR CIGS.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
A SERIES OF HIGHS AND LOWS WILL PRODUCE RAPIDLY VARYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS GENERALLY WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...THE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN A BIT OVER THE SOUTH HALF TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...A LOW CENTER
PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
LAKE. NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY WILL STAY BELOW GALE CRITERIA
BUT LIKELY WILL VARY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT STARTING BY LATE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE AFTER TOMORROW INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW CENTER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PASS NEAR THE SOUTH END OF
THE LAKE.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
511 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
211 PM CDT
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTN THRU EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO REDEVELOP AFTER THE
MORNING LINE OF CONVECTION. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
DRY AIR IS QUICKLY RIDING ALONG THE HEELS OF THE MOIST AXIS THAT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...STRETCHING OVER NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN
MIDDAY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS QUICKLY ERODING INTO A CUMULUS
FIELD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...AND EXPECT THIS TO ARRIVE OVER
NORTHEAST IL EARLY THIS AFTN. SFC FLOW WILL THEN TURN
WESTERLY...DESPITE DEW POINTS LIKELY HOLDING UP IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BASED OFF OF GUIDANCE
SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER IT IS VERY THIN CAPE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
THAT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN/EVE...BUT WITH
THE LACK OF INHIBITION ANY ACTIVITY THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND LIKELY END ARND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER. THEN
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND PROVIDES SOME DRYING TONIGHT. DEW
POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT...HOLDING GENERALLY
IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SOME
WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG NORTHERN MISSOURI
STRETCHING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN IN UNTIL LATE TUE AFTN.
SKIES SHUD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. THE CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY TUE WILL
BE ON HOW WARM SFC TEMPS CAN BECOME...AS FAR NORTHERN IL MAY HOLD IN
THE UPR 70S AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA STILL TOUCH THE
LOW/MID 80S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTN TUE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RATHER CONSISTENT...AND HAS ONLY EXHIBITED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TIMING/PLACEMENT. MID-LVL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES THE
FOCAL POINT TUE NGT...AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE/EARLY WED. PWAT
VALUES AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE WILL PUSH TO ARND 1.75-2"...WITH THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEADILY LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
CWFA LATE TUE EVE. THIS WILL BRING DEW POINTS BACK TO THE LOW/MID
60S...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED BETWEEN 50-60KTS
OVER EASTERN NE/NORTHERN KS STRETCHING EAST THRU THE CWFA ARND 9Z
WED. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN MCS DEVELOP TUE
AFTN/EVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA...AND WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING
LINE. GIVEN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST EARLY WED
MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWFA...MAINTENANCE OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT. THEN IT DOES APPEAR THE CONVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE
ON A WIND THREAT AND LARGE HAIL.
THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR WED WILL BE AFTN CONVECTION...WHICH HINGES
ON HOW THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL CWFA EARLY WED AFTN...AS THE MID-LVL WAVE BEGINS TO NEAR
THE AREA. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE GOING FORECAST...WITH AFTN
SHRA/TSRA IN THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED IS RATHER
QUIET...WITH MINIMAL SIGNAL TOWARDS ANY SIZABLE WARM-UP OR COOL
PERIODS. HOWEVER THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FEATURING A BROAD
ANTI-CYCLONIC SFC FEATURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STRETCHING NORTH TO
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP SFC WINDS NORTHEAST/EAST...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THUR/FRI OR GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH
60S ALONG THE IL LAKESHORE. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
WITH A SEMI-ZONAL LONGWAVE PATTERN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS SFC
FEATURE LINGERING BEYOND SAT IS LOW. ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO
HINT THAT A MID-LVL TROUGH MAY TRY TO DROP SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA
SAT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THEN
PIVOT THIS FEATURE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A VORT THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BY
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS TO RIDE ALONG THE VORT AXIS AND COULD BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SAT-EARLY MON. THEN THE
OTHER FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE THERMAL RIDGE
TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS COULD BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR A PERIOD OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET.
* STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE SOUTHWEST OF FEP TO CWI AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH SUNSET AS IT MOVES EAST POSSIBLY
IMPACTING RFD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH EARLY/MID
EVENING BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS SUNSET
APPROACHES WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING COMPLETELY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. CMS
PREVIOUS 18Z DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MAIN
TERMINALS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AND THUS WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST.
OVERALL...EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY...AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A BKN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 3000
FT AGL MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. SO CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* LOW FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IMPACTING ORD/MDW THROUGH SUNSET.
* HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
155 PM CDT
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5 INCHES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MOVED ACROSS THE
LAKE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING 30.0 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE LAKE. THE ONLY SYSTEM OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO IMPACT THE LAKE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN QUICKLY TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH
OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...UP
TO 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS OF THE
LAKE. WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND THERE COULD BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AS
WELL.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
343 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 342 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2014
Main concerns this forecast package will include pcpn chances
tonight, potential for large damaging wind storm late Tue night
through Wed morning, and then temps through the short term period.
Models look similar with the overall pattern but have begun to
differ on some of the sfc features and details, especially with
the Tue night through Wed time period...when the threat of severe
weather and heavy rainfall is present.
All models agree that a severe weather event is possible, but
differ on location and timing. Canadian is fastest, but agree with
GFS/ECMWF on location. NAM is furthest north and tracks the sfc
low across northern IL. The GFS is the slowest and furthest south
with the track of the low, but agrees with the ECMWF on the
location of the heaviest rainfall. GFS and Canadian also have the
most qpf, with is probably overdone. So, will be leaning away from
the furthest north NAM and try to take a blend of the other three.
Based on HPC qpf forecast and SPC Day 2 outlook, looks like a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF is the best way to go...so will follow
suit.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms will continue in the east and southeast
this evening, but once this goes by, dry conditions are expected
the remainder of the night and through tomorrow. All the models
develop pcpn to the west with some of them putting some of the
pcpn in west central IL. Looks like this develops on the tail end
of the front and convergence will be weak by then. So, looks like
something developing on the low level jet overnight; however this
is weak. Models do not carry this into the morning hours either.
Since most of the models, including some of the hires mesoscale
models do now have anything during this time period, will be
keeping it dry through the overnight hours. Conditions will
remained dry tomorrow as high press ridge moves over the area. At
the same time, the next system will be developing out west in
western NE/western KS. A warm front will extend east from this low
into northern MO and down into the southern half of IL. With
airmass very moist and unstable south of this front and a strong
low level jet overnight, strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop in parts of NE tomorrow night. Further
development will occur along the front in northern MO and parts of
southern IA. During the night hours, these storms are expected to
develop into a large complex of strong to severe storms...an MCS.
This complex is then expected to move east/southeast overnight
into western and northwestern IL. Initial convection will likely
be supercells with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes...but
out where the storms first develop. As the storms merge together,
the convection will likely become more linear in nature and could
become a bowecho or even a derecho. This should move across the
area during the very late hours of Tue night into the early
morning hours of Wed. As this complex of storms moves into the
cwa, damaging winds will become the primary severe weather threat.
Like SPC`s Day 2 outlook with a moderate risk out west and into
western IL. In addition to the severe threat, this complex of
storms will likely produce heavy rainfall across the area.
Rainfall amounts of over 2 inches will be possible tomorrow night
in western parts of central IL. As the system moves east-southeast
there should be some diminish on the strength of the system so
rainfall amounts will likely be lower in the east and southeast.
Pcpn will likely linger in the southeast Wed night, and with some
uncertainty on the whole evolution of the tail end of the system
back over our cwa, as the whole system moves east, will keep chc
pops over the rest of the area through Wed night. Then dry weather
is expected for Thursday as high press moves into the area for a
couple of days.
Temps will be warm one more day as the cwa will be in a warmer
sector again. Then once the MCS rolls through the area tomorrow
night, temps will cool for Wed and Thur.
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday
High press will dominate the area through Friday night, before the
next weather system moves into the area for Sat afternoon through
Sunday. Models differ on timing of the pcpn over the week, and the
location of the main sfc features, so an AllBlend forecast looks
reasonable for now. After the pcpn over the weekend, dry weather
is forecast again for Sun night and Monday. High temps through the
extended period will be in the 70s with lows in the upper 50s and
60s.
Auten
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2014
Weak cold front has pushed into west-central Illinois early this
afternoon, with scattered convection now beginning to develop
ahead of the boundary east of the I-55 corridor. All models have
a good handle on the current situation, with storms becoming more
numerous across east-central Illinois over the next couple of
hours. Based on latest radar trends and HRRR run, will only
mention thunder at KDEC and KCMI. Will carry VCTS at KDEC between
18 and 20z and tempo thunder at KCMI between 18 and 21z. After
that, the convection will push east of the TAF sites. Behind the
developing convection, skies have partially cleared at KPIA and
will gradually clear further east at the remaining sites later
this afternoon. Despite the NAM model trying to re-develop
widely scattered storms and lower clouds along the lingering
front later this evening, have decided to follow the drier model
guidance for tonight. Will therefore only carry scattered mid-clouds
through the night with light W/SW winds. Winds will become W/NW by
Tuesday morning under a mostly clear sky.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
154 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE
SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE
REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH
IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST
12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND
ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE
AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME
CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN
WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A
MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS
SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING
EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE
DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S
NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK
DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN.
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD
ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT
AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL
SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
STORMS.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND
RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN
HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.
ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP
MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE
MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF
A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* WINDS LIKELY REMAINING GUSTY UP AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FOLLOWING THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MAIN
TERMINALS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AND THUS WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST.
OVERALL...EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY...AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A BKN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 3000
FT AGL MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. SO CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* VERY LOW FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
OR NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
155 PM CDT
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5 INCHES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MOVED ACROSS THE
LAKE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING 30.0 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE LAKE. THE ONLY SYSTEM OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO IMPACT THE LAKE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN QUICKLY TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH
OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...UP
TO 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS OF THE
LAKE. WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND THERE COULD BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AS
WELL.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1226 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE
SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE
REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH
IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST
12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND
ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE
AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME
CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN
WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A
MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS
SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING
EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE
DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S
NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK
DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN.
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD
ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT
AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL
SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
STORMS.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND
RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN
HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.
ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP
MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE
MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF
A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* WINDS LIKELY REMAINING GUSTY UP AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FOLLOWING THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MAIN
TERMINALS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AND THUS WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST.
OVERALL...EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY...AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A BKN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 3000
FT AGL MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. SO CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* VERY LOW FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
OR NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1053 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE
SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE
REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH
IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST
12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND
ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE
AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME
CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN
WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A
MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS
SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING
EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE
DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S
NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK
DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN.
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD
ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT
AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL
SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
STORMS.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND
RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN
HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.
ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP
MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE
MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF
A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL.
* LINE OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS
SHORTLY...WITH A POSSIBLE TEMPO SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT FOR A SHORT PERIOD.
KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
FOR THE TAF UPDATE I HAVE TRIED TO CONVEY A BETTER TIMING ON THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD APPROACH
NORTHEASTERLY ILLINOIS AROUND MIDDAY. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE TERMINALS DURING THIS PERIOD...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE
THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...IT APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE
IN ITS WAKE WILL HELP LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE.
KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER MINNESOTA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
ALL DAY WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SO FAR ONLY SCT OR FEW DECKS AT
THE TERMINALS. WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING AND SOUPY AIR...STILL HAVE
SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS AND COULD SEE OCNL BKN MVFR CIGS.
EXPECTING ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR RFD AND
THEN THIS AFTN AND PERHAPS INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR CONVECTION. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO HINT
AT LIMITED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE VCTS IN FOR LATE THIS AFTN. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT WILL REDUCE
VSBY AND MAY HAVE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
GUSTS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SW WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AT 10-15
KT. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST TO ARND 20 KT
BY MID MORNING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH WITH LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
* LOW WITH ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
904 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE
SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE
REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH
IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST
12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND
ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE
AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME
CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN
WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A
MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS
SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING
EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE
DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S
NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK
DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN.
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD
ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT
AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL
SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
STORMS.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND
RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN
HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.
ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP
MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE
MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF
A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* GUSTY S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL.
* LINE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY.
* MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE STORMS.
JEE/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
FOR THE TAF UPDATE I HAVE TRIED TO CONVEY A BETTER TIMING ON THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD APPROACH
NORTHEASTERLY ILLINOIS AROUND MIDDAY. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE TERMINALS DURING THIS PERIOD...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE
THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...IT APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE
IN ITS WAKE WILL HELP LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE.
KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER MINNESOTA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
ALL DAY WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SO FAR ONLY SCT OR FEW DECKS AT
THE TERMINALS. WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING AND SOUPY AIR...STILL HAVE
SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS AND COULD SEE OCNL BKN MVFR CIGS.
EXPECTING ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR RFD AND
THEN THIS AFTN AND PERHAPS INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR CONVECTION. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO HINT
AT LIMITED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE VCTS IN FOR LATE THIS AFTN. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT WILL REDUCE
VSBY AND MAY HAVE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
GUSTS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SW WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AT 10-15
KT. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST TO ARND 20 KT
BY MID MORNING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY.
* LOW WITH ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
655 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE
SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE
REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH
IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST
12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND
ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE
AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME
CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN
WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A
MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS
SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING
EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE
DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S
NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK
DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN.
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD
ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT
AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL
SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
STORMS.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND
RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN
HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.
ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP
MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE
MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF
A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* GUSTY S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL
THIS AFTN.
* ISOL TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTN.
* MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL WITH THE STORMS.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER MINNESOTA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
ALL DAY WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SO FAR ONLY SCT OR FEW DECKS AT
THE TERMINALS. WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING AND SOUPY AIR...STILL HAVE
SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS AND COULD SEE OCNL BKN MVFR CIGS.
EXPECTING ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR RFD AND
THEN THIS AFTN AND PERHAPS INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR CONVECTION. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO HINT
AT LIMITED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE VCTS IN FOR LATE THIS AFTN. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT WILL REDUCE
VSBY AND MAY HAVE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
GUSTS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SW WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AT 10-15
KT. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST TO ARND 20 KT
BY MID MORNING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. MAY SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
403 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE
SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE
REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH
IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST
12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND
ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE
AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME
CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN
WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A
MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS
SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING
EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE
DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S
NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK
DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN.
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD
ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT
AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL
SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
STORMS.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND
RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN
HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.
ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP
MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE
MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF
A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* GUSTY S WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL THIS
AFTN.
* ISOL TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTN.
* MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL WITH THE STORMS.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NW TODAY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL.
FIRST...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND THINKING
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THOSE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER RFD EARLY THIS
MORNING. SITES TO OUR NORTH AND SOME TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE
REPORTING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...BUT THOSE ARE CLOSELY TIED TO AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION. LEFT SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS...BUT THINKING RFD HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP.
ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE
TSRA TEMPO BY AN HOUR AS GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DID NOT GO AS LATE
AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...BUT STARTED TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
FORCING IS ONCE AGAIN MUDDLED SO TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
CHALLENGE TODAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE STORMS DUE
TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UPWARDS
OF 30 KT TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND HAVE A DRY
FORECAST BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL SHRA OR TSRA
MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. MAY SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS IN THE AFTN AND
PERHAPS THE EVENING AS WELL.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA LATE OVERNIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY DURING THE DAY AND CHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR PSBL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
DZ
.&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
401 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH MAX WINDS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE
UP TO 30 KT. STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS PLANNED.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE TODAY ALONG WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT.
WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE LOWS COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INITIALLY BE STRONG
AT 15 TO 25 KT BUT WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.
THE NEXT LOW FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND
PUSHES EAST. WINDS TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS IN HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE WHEN IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY BUT THINKING THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 KT
OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SITS OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WINDS
TURN NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK AS WELL.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
335 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE
SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE
REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH
IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST
12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND
ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE
AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME
CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN
WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A
MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS
SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING
EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE
DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S
NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK
DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN.
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD
ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT
AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL
SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
STORMS.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND
RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN
HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.
ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP
MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE
MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF
A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY S WINDS REDEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL
THIS AFTN.
* MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL.
* ISOL TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NW TODAY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL.
FIRST...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND THINKING
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THOSE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER RFD EARLY THIS
MORNING. SITES TO OUR NORTH AND SOME TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE
REPORTING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...BUT THOSE ARE CLOSELY TIED TO AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION. LEFT SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS...BUT THINKING RFD HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP.
ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE
TSRA TEMPO BY AN HOUR AS GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DID NOT GO AS LATE
AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...BUT STARTED TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
FORCING IS ONCE AGAIN MUDDLED SO TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
CHALLENGE TODAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE STORMS DUE
TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UPWARDS
OF 30 KT TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND HAVE A DRY
FORECAST BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL SHRA OR TSRA
MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. MAY SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS IN THE AFTN AND
PERHAPS THE EVENING AS WELL.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA LATE OVERNIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY DURING THE DAY AND CHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR PSBL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
DZ
.&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1255 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
857 PM CDT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA HAS WANED FOR THE MOMENT BUT
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CWA FROM NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SUB-SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ARE STILL THE MAIN THREAT WITH A FEW MESONET SITES TO
THE WEST SHOWING GUSTS NEAR 30 KT...BUT EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO GET STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. NORTHWESTERN AREAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER COVERAGE
AND SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPOTTY ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FIRE
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF A BETTER ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL IOWA WHERE MORE ABUNDANT THUNDER COVERAGE EXISTS. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY TONIGHT AFTER
THE NEXT ROUND COMES THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT COVERAGE MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WAVE. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD IN THE NEAR TERM TO BETTER FIT TRENDS...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
252 PM CDT
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS CLOUD
COVER...WITH SOME BUILDING OVER NORTHERN IL. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP...AND QUICKLY
SLIDING NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE LACK OF 0-6KM SHEAR...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER IT CAN`T BE
RULED OUT THAT A FEW CORES COULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND PRODUCE A
STRONG WIND GUST TO 50MPH...THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR WELL ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT. SO THE SCATTERED/DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN THRU THE AFTN HOURS...THEN EXPECT A
STEADY DECLINE IN COVERAGE SHORTLY AFT SUNSET. UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN BLOSSOMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN TO THE WEST THROUGH CENTRAL NE. SPC
CONTINUES TO HAVE OUR FORECAST AREA IN GENERAL CONVECTION...WHICH
BLENDS WELL WITH EARLIER THINKING.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NEAR 90 DEG IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE MOIST
BOUNDARY HAS ALSO PUSHED NORTHEAST INTO THE CWFA...AS DEW POINTS
HAVE JUMPED IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 60S. THE EXCEPTION IS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IN...ALTHOUGH DEW PTS ARE BEGINNING TO CLIMB
TO NEAR 60 LATE THIS AFTN. AN ISOLATED TSRA REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A PONTIAC TO CHICAGO LINE. THIS IS TIED TO A
WEAK WAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW...AND COULD HAVE BROUGHT
LOWER POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. HI-RES LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING COULD HOLD ON UNTIL DAYBREAK MON...WHICH COULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
MONDAY...
LLVL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY MON...WITH THE WEAK RIDGE PUSHING TO THE
EAST. SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR MON IS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISC...WITH THE CWFA SEEING SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT THE SFC. SOME TURNING IN THE WIND FIELDS DEVELOPS MON
AFTN...AND WITH DRY AIR ARRIVING ALOFT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
EASILY DEVELOP INTO A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER OR POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. TEMPS MON WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MILD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S. WITH THE MOIST CONVEYOR OVERHEAD...DEW POINTS THROUGH
THE DAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S...CREATING A HUMID ENVIRONMENT.
TUESDAY...
SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED FOR ARRIVAL TUE...WHICH WILL BRING
A BRIEF END TO THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY IN THE MORNING SOME
LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH BY MIDDAY THE ENTIRE CWFA SHOULD BE DRY.
THE BIGGER CHALLENGE FOR TUE WILL BE ON HOW WARM TEMPS CAN BECOME.
SFC WINDS BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATE A SLIGHT NW TURN WITH
850MB TEMPS HOLDING ARND 10-13 DEG C. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
GENERALLY A WEST FLOW AT THE SFC...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80S
AND FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 TEMPS SHUD PUSH EVEN
WARMER INTO THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID-80S.
MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST IN THE EVENING...HOWEVER ENOUGH OF
SFC RIDGING SHUD KEEP DRY CONDS THRU THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THEN THE MID-LVL FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS TO A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP
WITH GUIDANCE PUSHING A WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUE NGT.
THIS SHUD LIKELY ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WED MORNING.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MID-LVL WAVE WILL ARRIVE WED
MORNING...AND SOME TURNING IN THE WIND FIELDS ARE NOTED. SHEAR
CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EARLY WED...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WED. PROGGED
PWAT VALUES HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST CYCLE...HOWEVER
FEEL THAT WITH THE SETUP THAT THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND A RETURN TO
NEARLY 1.75-2" VALUES WILL RETURN...FOCUSED STILL FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA OR SOUTH OF I-80 WED. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PRECISE PATH. AS THE WAVE NEARS THE REGION
WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK WED...CONVECTION COULD ALREADY BE GOING BY
DAYBREAK WED...AND SHUD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF WITH
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. THE WILDCARD WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EITHER WAY...SHEAR VECTORS UPSTREAM OF THE CWFA
ARE HOVERING BETWEEN 50-60KTS AND RATHER UNIFORM IN DIRECTION
POINTED EAST/SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SFC RIDGE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO AND STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED
NGT/THUR. THIS WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S FOR THUR AND IN THE
LOW/MID 60S FOR AREAS OF NORTHEAST IL. THIS SFC RIDGE FEATURE THIS
SLOWS AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK TO CONTINUE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...AS THE 500MB FLOW REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH A SEMI-ZONAL
LOOK. THIS WILL EXPEDITE SYSTEMS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TO
THE EAST. THERE IS A SUBTLE SUGGESTION BY THE ENSEMBLES THAT FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND A MID-LVL TROUGH BAY TRY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PIVOT EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. SUPPORT FOR SUCH A
SCENARIO LOOKS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO BE RATHER
SEASONAL...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY BIG WARM-UPS EITHER FOR THE BULK
OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER IF THE FORECASTED PRECIP DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...AND SOILS CAN FURTHER DRY...ANY PERIOD OF SUNSHINE
COULD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM WELL ABOVE CURRENT GUIDANCE. PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOES HOWEVER LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY S WINDS REDEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL
THIS AFTN.
* MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL.
* ISOL TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NW TODAY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL.
FIRST...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND THINKING
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THOSE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER RFD EARLY THIS
MORNING. SITES TO OUR NORTH AND SOME TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE
REPORTING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...BUT THOSE ARE CLOSELY TIED TO AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION. LEFT SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS...BUT THINKING RFD HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP.
ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE
TSRA TEMPO BY AN HOUR AS GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DID NOT GO AS LATE
AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...BUT STARTED TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
FORCING IS ONCE AGAIN MUDDLED SO TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
CHALLENGE TODAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE STORMS DUE
TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UPWARDS
OF 30 KT TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND HAVE A DRY
FORECAST BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL SHRA OR TSRA
MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. MAY SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS IN THE AFTN AND
PERHAPS THE EVENING AS WELL.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA LATE OVERNIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY DURING THE DAY AND CHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR PSBL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
DZ
.&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 848 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014
Will be updating the forecast soon to make minor adjustments to
shower and t-storm wording and to tweak temperatures - especially
hourly temps in the gridded forecast. The early evening convection
has dissipated in most areas, with the exception of scattered showers
in an axis of higher dewpoints/instability primarily west of the
Illinois River. Expect the scattered showers and isolated t-storms
to come to an end in the next couple of hours.
The next round of showers/t-storms will move into the area as the
remnants of the MCS in western Iowa/NW Missouri advance eastward.
At this time it appears that the best chances for convection will
be Monday morning. However, scattered showers and a few t-storms
can be expected toward early morning in west central Illinois and
around daybreak or shortly thereafter west of I-55.
The moderately strong cool pool from the thunderstorms this
afternoon has resulted in cooler temperatures than anticipated in
eastern Illinois. Thus, will adjust the hourly gridded forecast
accordingly, but with dew points in the mid-upper 60s will leave
overnight lows alone.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014
Used a blend of interpolating current regional radar imagery and
short range models to time the next round of showers and t-storms
in central and eastern IL. The broken line of convection in east
central IA is expected to reach the IL river valley around 10z,
the I-55 corridor around 11z and east central IL around 13z. Many
of the short range models including the HRRR and local WRF
indicate that this line will continue to weaken. Thus, will only
go with VCTS at the TAF sites for now.
The better chance for convection will from mid-morning in the IL
River valley to late morning-early afternoon east of I-57. An
upper level shortwave trough moving toward the mid MS Valley will
provide the lift for the moist and unstable air to produce showers
and t-storms. MVFR ceilings and visibility will most likely
accompany the showers and t-storms due to abundant low level
moisture.
Convection may redevelop during the afternoon along any number of
low level boundaries and increasing, diurnal instability. However
confidence is low as to the location this scattered convection
will occur, so will go with VCTS for now. Early evening will see
an end to the convection as the best forcing mechanisms move to
the east of the region. This will leave us with a VFR ceiling and
slightly less wind.
Miller
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 247 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014
Models again look very similar with overall pattern in the upper
levels and with sfc features, over the next several days. The
differences in the models have to do with the timing and location
of the qpf tonight through early next week. Main concern with the
multiple chances of pcpn through the forecast period and
when/where there will be some dry weather in this forecast.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday
Scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing early this evening, but
are diurnal and should dissipate later this evening, leaving a dry
forecast with partly cloudy skies. High dewpoint air will be
around tomorrow, like today, in advance of a cold front
approaching from the northwest. With cwa being in the
warm/moisture sector just ahead of the front, pcpn appears likely
for tomorrow, across the who area. The front will move close to
the area tomorrow night, but not get into the cwa until Tue
morning. As pcpn moves through the area tomorrow, pops will become
chance category tomorrow night and then become dry for Tuesday. As
the cold front begins to lift back north as a warm front, a low
pressure area will develop out west and be the focus for a
thunderstorm complex Tue night over eastern Neb/western Iowa. This
complex of storms will approach the area late Tue evening and then
reach into the area after midnight Tue night and remain over the
area through Wed morning. So looking at likely pops for late Tue
night through Wed morning over the cwa. Models then differ on what
things will look like rest of Wed over the area, but will be
keeping likely and chc pops for the day. Will be interesting to
see what the mode of convection will be late Tue night through Wed
morning.
Temps will remain in the 80s next two days ahead of the frontal
system, and then get cooler for Wed, though still warm in the
south/southeast parts of the cwa.
LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday
Depending on the speed of the system for Wed/Wed night, pcpn will
likely linger in the southeast Wed night. So will keep likely pops
in the southeast Wed night. The front now looks to push south of
the area, but will be keeping chc pops in across the southern half of
the area Thur through Friday. The finally a dry period in the
forecast for Fri night and Sat before the next system moves into
the area with more pcpn, for Sat night and Sun. Temps through the
extended period will be on the cooler side as the front slides
south of the area and winds will be out of the north to northeast.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
904 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE U.S. 24 CORRIDOR
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH UPPER 60S NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
MCS OVER NEB/IA/NRN MO MOVG ESE/35-40KT. ALTHOUGH EVE SOUNDINGS
SHOWED A VERY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA THIS
EVE... VEERING LLJ AHEAD OF LOW MOVG EAST ACROSS NEB SHOULD
TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR NWRN INDIANA ZONES BY MORNING
ALLOWING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA. BUMPED UP POPS ON
UPDATE INTO LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AN INTERESTING SHORT TERM PERIOD TO CONTEND WITH. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
MOVED IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING AND DRY
AIR INTRUSION HAS LED TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER
40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HIRES
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DEGREE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WITH HRRR BEGINNING TO GRAB ONTO IT. THIS A CONCERN
FOR EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR OUR AREA. NAM12 HAS BEEN THROWN OUT GIVEN ITS
CONTINUED OUTLIER SOLUTION OF BEING FURTHER NORTH. BLEND OF OTHER
HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY USED.
RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
AND INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT...NEARING OUR WESTERN
BORDER AROUND SUNRISE. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH LOCATION AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON IT DEVELOPING AND HEADING
TOWARD INDIANA. WARM FRONT BOUNDARY TO SOUTH WILL TRY TO WORK NORTH
TONIGHT WITH STRONG THETA E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET. EXPECT 850-700MB INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT CONCERN GROWING
THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO WORK NORTH ESPECIALLY ONCE MCS
BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED AND SURFACE BASED. THIS SHOULD TAKE BULK OF
STRONGEST CONVECTION SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY RETARD NORTHERN MOVEMENT
OF WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA. HIRES MODELS TAKE MCV INTO INDIANA
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
AND ASSOCIATED HIGHEST QPF. CURRENT THINKING FAVORS SOUTHERN
SOLUTIONS WITH HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN HALF BUT STILL
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS NORTH. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER LOW IN THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN POOR TIMING AND LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT
IN FAR WEST ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IF SYSTEM IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH MCV AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN AFTERNOON. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WITH HIGH
THETA E AIR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES BUT
SPEED OF SYSTEM TO HELP LIMIT AMOUNTS. KEPT HEAVY RAIN MENTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTH AND AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA LOOKS BEST. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY WILL CREEP
NORTH BUT EXPECT OUTFLOWS AND MCV CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH TO KEEP
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WIND SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE NEAR THE WARM FRONT WITH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS WITH LARGE CURVING
HODOGRAPHS DEPICTED. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND A FEW MODELS
SHOWING FURTHER NORTH PLACEMENT...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SEVERE
IN HWO FOR NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE BEGINNING OF THIS
SYSTEM HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH A LARGE HAIL/CORE STORM THAT WAS
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
FAVOR THE 12Z 4KM NAM WHICH IS VERIFYING THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH REASONABLY WELL...BUT WAS SHOWING TOO MUCH
DEVELOPMENT TOO FAR NORTH IN THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THEREFORE...
WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST. THERE WAS STILL SOME VARIETY
AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM CONCERNING THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
CONSENSUS AMONG THESE MODELS INDICATES CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWERED LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN INDIANA PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE MOVG INTO WRN NEB/KS THIS EVE WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GRTLKS REGION BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK BUT FAVOR ONE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA PER BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE. LLJ TO SE OF TRACK
OF LOW WILL PROMOTE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS NRN INDIANA
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHRA. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS
BEING ADVECTED NEWD IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE... MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FCST ONLY TO BE IN 4-5.5C.KM RANGE OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY.
ALSO... LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGESTS MCS OVER NEB/IA WILL
TRACK ESE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WHICH COULD DISRUPT ISENT LIFT TO
THE NORTH. THUS... MAINTAINED JUST A PROB30 TS FOR WED BUT DID
INTRODUCE PREDOMINANT SHRA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR IN THE AFTN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY/JT
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
748 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE U.S. 24 CORRIDOR
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH UPPER 60S NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AN INTERESTING SHORT TERM PERIOD TO CONTEND WITH. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
MOVED IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING AND DRY
AIR INTRUSION HAS LED TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER
40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HIRES
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DEGREE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WITH HRRR BEGINNING TO GRAB ONTO IT. THIS A CONCERN
FOR EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR OUR AREA. NAM12 HAS BEEN THROWN OUT GIVEN ITS
CONTINUED OUTLIER SOLUTION OF BEING FURTHER NORTH. BLEND OF OTHER
HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY USED.
RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
AND INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT...NEARING OUR WESTERN
BORDER AROUND SUNRISE. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH LOCATION AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON IT DEVELOPING AND HEADING
TOWARD INDIANA. WARM FRONT BOUNDARY TO SOUTH WILL TRY TO WORK NORTH
TONIGHT WITH STRONG THETA E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET. EXPECT 850-700MB INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT CONCERN GROWING
THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO WORK NORTH ESPECIALLY ONCE MCS
BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED AND SURFACE BASED. THIS SHOULD TAKE BULK OF
STRONGEST CONVECTION SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY RETARD NORTHERN MOVEMENT
OF WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA. HIRES MODELS TAKE MCV INTO INDIANA
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
AND ASSOCIATED HIGHEST QPF. CURRENT THINKING FAVORS SOUTHERN
SOLUTIONS WITH HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN HALF BUT STILL
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS NORTH. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER LOW IN THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN POOR TIMING AND LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT
IN FAR WEST ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IF SYSTEM IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH MCV AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN AFTERNOON. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WITH HIGH
THETA E AIR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES BUT
SPEED OF SYSTEM TO HELP LIMIT AMOUNTS. KEPT HEAVY RAIN MENTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTH AND AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA LOOKS BEST. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY WILL CREEP
NORTH BUT EXPECT OUTFLOWS AND MCV CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH TO KEEP
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WIND SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE NEAR THE WARM FRONT WITH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS WITH LARGE CURVING
HODOGRAPHS DEPICTED. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND A FEW MODELS
SHOWING FURTHER NORTH PLACEMENT...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SEVERE
IN HWO FOR NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE BEGINNING OF THIS
SYSTEM HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH A LARGE HAIL/CORE STORM THAT WAS
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
FAVOR THE 12Z 4KM NAM WHICH IS VERIFYING THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH REASONABLY WELL...BUT WAS SHOWING TOO MUCH
DEVELOPMENT TOO FAR NORTH IN THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THEREFORE...
WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST. THERE WAS STILL SOME VARIETY
AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM CONCERNING THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
CONSENSUS AMONG THESE MODELS INDICATES CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWERED LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN INDIANA PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE MOVG INTO WRN NEB/KS THIS EVE WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GRTLKS REGION BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK BUT FAVOR ONE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA PER BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE. LLJ TO SE OF TRACK
OF LOW WILL PROMOTE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS NRN INDIANA
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHRA. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS
BEING ADVECTED NEWD IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE... MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FCST ONLY TO BE IN 4-5.5C.KM RANGE OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY.
ALSO... LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGESTS MCS OVER NEB/IA WILL
TRACK ESE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WHICH COULD DISRUPT ISENT LIFT TO
THE NORTH. THUS... MAINTAINED JUST A PROB30 TS FOR WED BUT DID
INTRODUCE PREDOMINANT SHRA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR IN THE AFTN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY/JT
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SEVERAL
QUICKLY MOVING SHORT WAVES PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH SYSTEM
PASSES...RESULTING IN A HUMID AND WET PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW
PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE REACHED.
GIVEN OUR TIMING PROBLEMS...WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO
FALL AFTER 00Z...STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE WEST AS
DRYER AIR MAY ARRIVE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.
AS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL SLIGHTLY AND GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
ALOFT AND INDIANA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS SHIRT WAVE TO THE
EAST AND THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS NEAR 80. SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION...THUS
JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU WILL BE EXPECTED. WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGH TEMPS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
FROM BLOW OFF CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
BEGIN TO REACH CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE
DRY DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY...AND A PLEASANT EVENING SHOULD
BE HAD...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MARK A RETURN AFTER
06Z WED. THUS WILL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND
KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY
AS PRECIP FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO REACH THE WABASH
AROUND 12Z. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PURISTS
ALOFT AND GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS INDIANA. NAM IS A BIT MORE SMOOTH WITH IT/S SOLUTION THAN
THE GFS. THE NAM IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE POORLY ORGANIZED
PATTERNS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH. NONETHELESS...SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AIDING LIFT
AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...THE 310K
GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 9 G/KG. UNSURE ON SEVERE THREAT
ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNLESS HEATING OCCURS.
MORE HEATING WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SVR. WE WILL NEED
TO WAIT AND SEE FOR NOW. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY
AS AT LEAST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. FURTHERMORE WILL TREND
TEMPS TOWARD A BLEND ON HIGHS.
PRECIP ONCE AGAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE DYNAMICS WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE DEPART...CERTAINLY
THIS REMAINS QUITE DE PENDANT UPON TIMING AND ARRIVAL...WHICH
APPEAR A BIT IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL TREND HIGHS
POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...AND LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO TIME OF ARRIVAL CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL TREND
TOWARD CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLEND ON LOW TEMPS.
GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA
AND THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A DRY COLUMN. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNREACHABLE AND WILL TREND
TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN DRY AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ALLBLEND
INITIALIZATION HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. NO REAL IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE
SO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH HANDLED
GUIDANCE WELL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A TAD FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.
ADDITIONALLY...ALL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROJECTED
TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIALLY DECENT RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S...FOR
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 030200Z. UNTIL
THEN...THREAT OF CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE KIND/KBMG VICINITY...WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS IN AND NEAR THE HEAVER CELLS.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS 015-040 SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING
ONCE THE WAVE PASSES. MODEL DATA HINT AT SOME LOW CLOUD AROUND 010
DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT THE SIGNALS AREN/T AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE LOWER
CEILINGS IS LOW. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
SURFACE WINDS 200-220 DEGREES 10-14 KTS THIS EVENING WILL VEER A BIT
MORE TOWARDS 220-230 LATER TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 7-10 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
436 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SEVERAL
QUICKLY MOVING SHORT WAVES PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH SYSTEM
PASSES...RESULTING IN A HUMID AND WET PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW
PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE REACHED.
GIVEN OUR TIMING PROBLEMS...WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO
FALL AFTER 00Z...STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE WEST AS
DRYER AIR MAY ARRIVE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.
AS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL SLIGHTLY AND GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
ALOFT AND INDIANA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS SHIRT WAVE TO THE
EAST AND THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS NEAR 80. SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION...THUS
JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU WILL BE EXPECTED. WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGH TEMPS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
FROM BLOW OFF CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
BEGIN TO REACH CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE
DRY DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY...AND A PLEASANT EVENING SHOULD
BE HAD...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MARK A RETURN AFTER
06Z WED. THUS WILL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND
KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY
AS PRECIP FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO REACH THE WABASH
AROUND 12Z. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PURISTS
ALOFT AND GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS INDIANA. NAM IS A BIT MORE SMOOTH WITH IT/S SOLUTION THAN
THE GFS. THE NAM IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE POORLY ORGANIZED
PATTERNS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH. NONETHELESS...SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AIDING LIFT
AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...THE 310K
GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 9 G/KG. UNSURE ON SEVERE THREAT
ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNLESS HEATING OCCURS.
MORE HEATING WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SVR. WE WILL NEED
TO WAIT AND SEE FOR NOW. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY
AS AT LEAST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. FURTHERMORE WILL TREND
TEMPS TOWARD A BLEND ON HIGHS.
PRECIP ONCE AGAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE DYNAMICS WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE DEPART...CERTAINLY
THIS REMAINS QUITE DE PENDANT UPON TIMING AND ARRIVAL...WHICH
APPEAR A BIT IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL TREND HIGHS
POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...AND LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO TIME OF ARRIVAL CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL TREND
TOWARD CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLEND ON LOW TEMPS.
GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA
AND THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A DRY COLUMN. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNREACHABLE AND WILL TREND
TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN DRY AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ALLBLEND
INITIALIZATION HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. NO REAL IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE
SO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH HANDLED
GUIDANCE WELL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A TAD FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.
ADDITIONALLY...ALL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROJECTED
TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIALLY DECENT RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S...FOR
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 022100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN INDIANA
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER WAVE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF KIND AROUND 030100Z. UNTIL
THEN...THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF KIND WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY
SHIFTING WINDS IN AND NEAR THE HEAVER CELLS.
WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON THE WIND SPEEDS ON THE UPDATE BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WITH CEILINGS FINALLY IMPROVING AS OF 17Z OBSERVATIONS...HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND PULLED MVFR MENTION FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD KLAF AND KIND. HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
RADAR MOSAIC JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. NO LIGHTNING AS OF YET SO CONTINUED
VCSH MENTION UNTIL INTRODUCING VCTS BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...EARLIER AT
WESTERN TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 KTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO IMPROVE VF FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION BUT LOOK TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY DROP SLIGHTLY BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...LEE/JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
253 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SEVERAL
QUICKLY MOVING SHORT WAVES PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH SYSTEM
PASSES...RESULTING IN A HUMID AND WET PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW
PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE REACHED.
GIVEN OUR TIMING PROBLEMS...WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO
FALL AFTER 00Z...STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE WEST AS
DRYER AIR MAY ARRIVE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.
AS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL SLIGHTLY AND GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
ALOFT AND INDIANA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS SHIRT WAVE TO THE
EAST AND THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS NEAR 80. SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION...THUS
JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU WILL BE EXPECTED. WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGH TEMPS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
FROM BLOW OFF CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
BEGIN TO REACH CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE
DRY DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY...AND A PLEASANT EVENING SHOULD
BE HAD...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MARK A RETURN AFTER
06Z WED. THUS WILL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND
KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY
AS PRECIP FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO REACH THE WABASH
AROUND 12Z. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PURISTS
ALOFT AND GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS INDIANA. NAM IS A BIT MORE SMOOTH WITH IT/S SOLUTION THAN
THE GFS. THE NAM IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE POORLY ORGANIZED
PATTERNS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH. NONETHELESS...SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AIDING LIFT
AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...THE 310K
GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 9 G/KG. UNSURE ON SEVERE THREAT
ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNLESS HEATING OCCURS.
MORE HEATING WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SVR. WE WILL NEED
TO WAIT AND SEE FOR NOW. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY
AS AT LEAST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. FURTHERMORE WILL TREND
TEMPS TOWARD A BLEND ON HIGHS.
PRECIP ONCE AGAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE DYNAMICS WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE DEPART...CERTAINLY
THIS REMAINS QUITE DE PENDANT UPON TIMING AND ARRIVAL...WHICH
APPEAR A BIT IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL TREND HIGHS
POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...AND LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO TIME OF ARRIVAL CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL TREND
TOWARD CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLEND ON LOW TEMPS.
GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA
AND THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A DRY COLUMN. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNREACHABLE AND WILL TREND
TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN DRY AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ALLBLEND
INITIALIZATION HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. NO REAL IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE
SO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH HANDLED
GUIDANCE WELL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A TAD FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.
ADDITIONALLY...ALL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROJECTED
TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIALLY DECENT RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S...FOR
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
WITH CEILINGS FINALLY IMPROVING AS OF 17Z OBSERVATIONS...HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND PULLED MVFR MENTION FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD KLAF AND KIND. HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
RADAR MOSAIC JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. NO LIGHTNING AS OF YET SO CONTINUED
VCSH MENTION UNTIL INTRODUCING VCTS BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...EARLIER AT
WESTERN TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 KTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO IMPROVE VF FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION BUT LOOK TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY DROP SLIGHTLY BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...LEE
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SEVERAL
QUICKLY MOVING SHORT WAVES PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH SYSTEM
PASSES...RESULTING IN A HUMID AND WET PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW
PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE REACHED.
GIVEN OUR TIMING PROBLEMS...WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO
FALL AFTER 00Z...STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE WEST AS
DRYER AIR MAY ARRIVE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.
AS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL SLIGHTLY AND GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
ALOFT AND INDIANA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS SHIRT WAVE TO THE
EAST AND THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER TEH CENTRAL PLAINS.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS NEAR 80. SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION...THUS
JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU WILL BE EXPECTED. WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGH TEMPS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
FROM BLOW OFF CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
BEGIN TO REACH CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE
DRY DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY...AND A PLEASANT EVENING SHOULD
BE HAD...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MARK A RETURN AFTER
06Z WED. THUS WILL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND
KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY
AS PRECIP FROM CONVCETION UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO REACH THE WABASH
AROUND 12Z. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERISTS
ALOFT AND GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS INDIANA. NAM IS A BIT MORE SMOOTH WITH IT/S SOLUTION THAN
THE GFS. THE NAM IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE POORLY ORGANIZED
PATTERNS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH. NONETHELESS...SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AIDING LIFT
AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...THE 310K
GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLUIDE ON WEDENSDAY WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 9 G/KG. UNSURE ON SEVERE THREAT
ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILTY
PATRICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNLESS HEATING OCCURS. MORE
HEATING WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SVR. WE WILL NEED TO
WAIT AND SEE FOR NOW. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS
AT LEAST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. FURTHERMORE WILL TREND
TEMPS TOWARD A BLEND ON HIGHS.
PRECIP ONCE AGAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE DYNAMICS WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE DEPART...CERTAINLY
THIS REMAINS QUITE DEPENDANT UPON TIMING AND ARRIVAL...WHICH
APPEAR A BIT IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL TREND HIGHS
POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...AND LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO TIME OF ARRIVAL CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL TREND
TOWARD CLEAING SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLEND ON LOW TEMPS.
GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA
AND THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A DRY COLUMN. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNREACHABLE AND WILL TREND
TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUING
INTO THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...THEY ARE SOMEWHAT LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN
IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THIS ALLOWS FOR THE INSERTION OF A 36 HOUR DRY
PERIOD LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
IN CONTROL. THIS REQUIRED SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM ALLBLEND.
ON TEMPS...OVERALL PATTERN IS QUASIZONAL TO WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC...BECOMING MORE CYCLONIC VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
EXPECT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND THESE WERE INITIALIZED WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
WITH CEILINGS FINALLY IMPROVING AS OF 17Z OBSERVATIONS...HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND PULLED MVFR MENTION FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD KLAF AND KIND. HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
RADAR MOSAIC JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. NO LIGHTNING AS OF YET SO CONTINUED
VCSH MENTION UNTIL INTRODUCING VCTS BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...EARLIER AT
WESTERN TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 KTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO IMPROVE VF FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION BUT LOOK TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY DROP SLIGHTLY BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...LEE/SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
The main focus for this afternoon and evenings forecast is again for
chances of severe convection. One big negative for convective
development this afternoon is a warming mid level. Of the convective
allowing models a couple allow no storms across southwest Kansas
while the NMMs, 4 km NAM and the HRRR all support some type of
brief, mainly isolated supercell development coming out of eastern
Colorado near the dryline and sweeping east into west central KS.
Sufficient shear and MUCAPE combinations are in place to support a
brief window of severe threat including large hail (golf balls to
tennis balls in most instances) as well as damaging supercell RFD
winds. Any severe threat is likely confined to locations west of
highway 83 and is low to begin with given the trouble storms will
have gaining large depth.
Wind advisory conditions will persist through sunset before the
surface heating ceases. Some of the warmest overnight temperature of
the season will be experienced tonight and early tomorrow especially
across south central Kansas. The surface cold front will push though
the area by noon on Wednesday providing northeasterly upslope
surface flow. Models at this time are not indicating any additional
convection, at least during the daytime hours on Wednesday. The
model consensus for highs Wednesday range from upper 80s north to
upper 90s south and west.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A convectively active period awaits midweek through the weekend as
southwestern Kansas finds itself in a favorable west-southwest flow
regime with a mean upper tropospheric jet extending from southern
California to central Kansas. A cold front will push south late
tonight into early Wednesday before stalling out just to our south
across the northern Panhandles/far northwest Oklahoma. A few
surface-based storms may form across Barber County late afternoon
Wednesday, however a very warm middle troposphere will likely
prevent surface based convection. Things will change quite a bit
overnight Wednesday night as the 850-700mb layer becomes very warm
frontogenetic as a weak upper level disturbance ripples
east-northeast through the pattern. The warm frontogenetic forcing
for ascent will be quite strong during the 06-12Z Thursday time
frame. Ample moisture in this frontogenetic layer will contribute to
upwards of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE during the overnight hours. All the
reliable global mesoscale models at this time frame are bullish on
nocturnal convective development...and fairly vigorous at
that...especially north of a Garden City to Dodge City to Pratt
line. 2-7km AGL deep layer shear in combination with the
aforementioned 2000 CAPE will be more than favorable for elevated
severe storms capable of very large hail perhaps to two inches in
diameter. A heavy rain threat will also exist as storms would likely
form in a northwest to south east orientation with some individual
convective cell training a distinct possibility.
Everywhere we have 50 or greater POP we will amend the thunderstorm
forecast with Large Hail and Heavy Rain. This will be mesoscale
convective system (MCS) Number One. The overall pattern will remain
unchanged, and the setup for another MCS (Number Two) will likely
take place across the southern half of the DDC forecast area
(along/south of the Arkansas River) in a renewed zone of 850-700mb
warm frontogenesis. MCS Number Two would likely move off into south
central KS and/or northern Oklahoma by daybreak Friday with some
recovery taking place through the day Friday. The surface front will
likely remain just south of the Kansas-Oklahoma border with
post-frontal upslope convection likely to form across eastern
Colorado late in the day Friday. Some of this diurnal activity may
spread into far west-central/southwest Kansas by early Friday
evening as MCS Number Three. What seems more likely is that
nocturnal MCS Number Three will materialize after sunset Friday as
yet another minor disturbance moves northeast through the pattern
across the Central Plains. Eventually, a final, stronger shortwave
trough will eject out into the Central Plains by late in the weekend
and surface-based storms may impact southwestern Kansas. By Saturday
and Sunday, though, the details become increasingly sketchy as the
result of MCS Number Three may place the effective front too far
south for MCS Number Four to impact southwestern Kansas.
The bottom line is that a wet period is in store and much of the
southwest Kansas region will see in excess of an inch of rain before
all is said and done. There will likely be some areas of the
southwest Kansas region that see MUCH more than that...especially of
successive MCS`s track over the same general areas of our region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Wednesday morning. Winds will remain south to southwesterly 20 to
35kt through this evening as a strong surface low in northwestern
Kansas moves eastward into north central Kansas overnight. A
frontal boundary will then push southeastward across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning turning winds northerly 10 to 20kt.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 92 62 84 / 10 10 50 40
GCK 64 92 61 82 / 20 10 50 40
EHA 65 94 61 85 / 10 10 20 20
LBL 66 95 63 87 / 20 10 30 20
HYS 66 85 60 81 / 30 10 50 50
P28 72 97 66 86 / 10 20 60 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ061-062-074-084.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
911 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
Overall, the forecast is in pretty good shape. Only made minor
updates through the late afternoon and early evening hours to
account for the showers and thunderstorms that developed. Coverage
has decreased to isolated, so have adjusted PoPs as such. Latest
trends in guidance keeps these isolated showers and storms going for
just a little longer before we dry out for a few hours around and
after midnight. Have mirrored this trend as well. As mentioned in
the short-term section and noticeable in some of the models (not
all), additional scattered convection may develop along and near a
boundary situated out ahead of a strong MCS currently diving
southeast through southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Any
convective development in the pre-dawn hours should be concentrated
across southern Indiana and stretch southeastward into the Bluegrass
region of Kentucky.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
But first we have to deal with scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. We have an axis of higher moisture allowing
storms to fire off over southern Indiana so far today. This axis
will shift into the Ohio River Valley the rest of the afternoon
hours and allow for the storms to develop down here. The NAM
stability parameter for these storms seems too high, with it giving
us a higher threat for damaging winds and even hail in these storms.
The RUC looks a little closer to reality. This model indicates gusts
could get up to the 45-50 mph range in stronger downbursts.
Activity should wind down later this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. However, a frontal boundary will stall out
somewhere in the northeast half of our forecast area overnight,
providing a focus for new development toward daybreak Wednesday. In
addition, a potent MCS, developing at this time over NE/SD will rush
southeastward overnight. Will have to monitor how quickly this
system pushes towards us as it will play a key part in how our
severe weather threat pans out the rest of the day Wednesday.
With this forecast package we are still assuming a couple of rounds
of storms possible during the day Wednesday. The first with the
above front should taper off by late morning. A few models develop
new thunderstorms along this boundary even during the late morning
and early afternoon hours, which is not out of the question given
the moist airmass in place and boundaries running around. However,
still think the threat for severe will be highest should we get a
longer pause and consequent destabilization. Still looking at
discrete convection at the onset, which could lead to isolated
tornadoes over southern Indiana at first. Then as a line starts to
merge from these cells, we would see damaging winds take over as the
main threat, especially as model DCAPEs are well into the 1000s.
Timing this threat into the rest of Kentucky is a little more
difficult as we have to see how the line organizes. It should push
southeastward, but perhaps force new convection off to the west of
the line. The 4 km NAM blasts a long east/west line through our
whole forecast area in the evening, which would neutralize any
further threat for severe weather. However the 12km NAM has a
somewhat similar setup to what we had two Wednesdays ago, with
storms first firing over southern Indiana, pushing southeast and
then additional development west of the line. That scenario would
keep the threat for severe weather well into the night, as well as
the potential for flooding rains in areas that get more than one
round of storms.
The actual front looks to move into the region early Thursday,
bringing an end to precip along with drier and cooler air. Have lows
Thursday morning ranging from the upper 50s in southern Indiana to
around 70 in south central Kentucky. Highs Wednesday of course will
depend on the cloud cover, but for now have readings similar to
today, though south central Kentucky taking longer to cloud over
should get them at least into the upper 80s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
The cold front will continue to move southward Thursday, sinking
south of the KY/TN border by mid day. Some showers or thunderstorms
will persist across south central KY in the morning hours before the
drier air work in during the afternoon. Dry conditions are then
expected Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the north.
Another wave riding along the frontal boundary may spread a few
showers into the southwestern portion of southern KY Friday, but
most of the region should remain dry through Friday night.
Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday with highs only reaching
into the mid to upper 70s. Lows will dip down into the mid to upper
50s. Friday will see a bit of warming with highs back into the lower
80s.
A warm front will then move back to the north across the area
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop as moisture surges back in, with the better chance for
storms Saturday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
Sunday into Sunday night ahead of the cold front. There is still a
bit of disagreement in the models as to how fast the cold front
moves through, but it should clear the area by mid day Monday and
high pressure will build in once again. We should then see dry
conditions through Tuesday. High temperatures will be back into the
mid 80s Saturday and Sunday. Behind the front Monday`s highs will
drop back into the upper 70s to around 80.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 739 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
The evening hours should be quiet. The storms that bloomed to
our northwest earlier this afternoon are dissipating as the sun
sets. Winds will be light, generally out of the southwest.
During the pre-dawn hours scattered showers or thunderstorms may
develop along a warm front reaching roughly from MCI to CRW.
Confidence isn`t high enough for a TEMPO, so will stick with VCTS
for now.
Morning convection, if any, will clear out by mid morning, leaving
us with dry and VFR conditions from late morning into mid
afternoon. Attention then turns to storms developing in an unstable
atmosphere, possibly on outflow from an MCS that will be crossing
from north central IL into north central IN Wednesday morning.
Confidence is high enough to go with a VCTS late tomorrow afternoon
at LEX and from the afternoon into the evening at SDF. Will keep
BWG dry for now since the cap will be stronger and more persistent
there, and it will take longer for storms from the north to make it
that far south.
Non-thunderstorm winds may get a little gusty tomorrow afternoon out
of the southwest, maybe into the 20-25kt range.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........MJP
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
740 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
But first we have to deal with scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. We have an axis of higher moisture allowing
storms to fire off over southern Indiana so far today. This axis
will shift into the Ohio River Valley the rest of the afternoon
hours and allow for the storms to develop down here. The NAM
stability parameter for these storms seems too high, with it giving
us a higher threat for damaging winds and even hail in these storms.
The RUC looks a little closer to reality. This model indicates gusts
could get up to the 45-50 mph range in stronger downbursts.
Activity should wind down later this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. However, a frontal boundary will stall out
somewhere in the northeast half of our forecast area overnight,
providing a focus for new development toward daybreak Wednesday. In
addition, a potent MCS, developing at this time over NE/SD will rush
southeastward overnight. Will have to monitor how quickly this
system pushes towards us as it will play a key part in how our
severe weather threat pans out the rest of the day Wednesday.
With this forecast package we are still assuming a couple of rounds
of storms possible during the day Wednesday. The first with the
above front should taper off by late morning. A few models develop
new thunderstorms along this boundary even during the late morning
and early afternoon hours, which is not out of the question given
the moist airmass in place and boundaries running around. However,
still think the threat for severe will be highest should we get a
longer pause and consequent destabilization. Still looking at
discrete convection at the onset, which could lead to isolated
tornadoes over southern Indiana at first. Then as a line starts to
merge from these cells, we would see damaging winds take over as the
main threat, especially as model DCAPEs are well into the 1000s.
Timing this threat into the rest of Kentucky is a little more
difficult as we have to see how the line organizes. It should push
southeastward, but perhaps force new convection off to the west of
the line. The 4 km NAM blasts a long east/west line through our
whole forecast area in the evening, which would neutralize any
further threat for severe weather. However the 12km NAM has a
somewhat similar setup to what we had two Wednesday ago, with storms
first firing over southern Indiana, pushing southeast and then
additional development west of the line. That scenario would keep
the threat for severe weather well into the night, as well as the
potential for flooding rains in areas that get more than one round
of storms.
The actual front looks to move into the region early Thursday,
bringing an end to precip along with drier and cooler air. Have lows
Thursday morning ranging from the upper 50s in southern Indiana to
around 70 in south central Kentucky. Highs Wednesday of course will
depend on the cloud cover, but for now have readings similar to
today, though south central Kentucky taking longer to cloud over
should get them at least into the upper 80s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
The cold front will continue to move southward Thursday, sinking
south of the KY/TN border by mid day. Some showers or thunderstorms
will persist across south central KY in the morning hours before the
drier air work in during the afternoon. Dry conditions are then
expected Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the north.
Another wave riding along the frontal boundary may spread a few
showers into the southwestern portion of southern KY Friday, but
most of the region should remain dry through Friday night.
Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday with highs only reaching
into the mid to upper 70s. Lows will dip down into the mid to upper
50s. Friday will see a bit of warming with highs back into the lower
80s.
A warm front will then move back to the north across the area
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop as moisture surges back in, with the better chance for
storms Saturday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
Sunday into Sunday night ahead of the cold front. There is still a
bit of disagreement in the models as to how fast the cold front
moves through, but it should clear the area by mid day Monday and
high pressure will build in once again. We should then see dry
conditions through Tuesday. High temperatures will be back into the
mid 80s Saturday and Sunday. Behind the front Monday`s highs will
drop back into the upper 70s to around 80.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 739 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
The evening hours should be quiet. The storms that bloomed to
our northwest earlier this afternoon are dissipating as the sun
sets. Winds will be light, generally out of the southwest.
During the pre-dawn hours scattered showers or thunderstorms may
develop along a warm front reaching roughly from MCI to CRW.
Confidence isn`t high enough for a TEMPO, so will stick with VCTS
for now.
Morning convection, if any, will clear out by mid morning, leaving
us with dry and VFR conditions from late morning into mid
afternoon. Attention then turns to storms developing in an unstable
atmosphere, possibly on outflow from an MCS that will be crossing
from north central IL into north central IN Wednesday morning.
Confidence is high enough to go with a VCTS late tomorrow afternoon
at LEX and from the afternoon into the evening at SDF. Will keep
BWG dry for now since the cap will be stronger and more persistent
there, and it will take longer for storms from the north to make it
that far south.
Non-thunderstorm winds may get a little gusty tomorrow afternoon out
of the southwest, maybe into the 20-25kt range.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
147 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
PREVIOUS UPDATE SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH THE ADMONISHMENT OF
SHOWERS IN THE NE SECTION OF THE CWA. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN KY AS WELL...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MORE
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. OVERALL...ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO BE PANNING OUT VERY WELL. UPDATED
THE NEAR TERM WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE SURE THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS WERE REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY PUT OUT A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES EAST OF JACKSON. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA...FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER BEFORE FADING
OUT. AS SUCH...WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT TEMPORARILY HIGHER
POPS AND THUNDERS CHANCES IN THIS AREA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD/SKY
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS WITH ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
VIRGINIA. THIS FLOW HAS BROUGHT AMPLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE STATE RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE JKL CWA THE
PCPN HAS BEEN MORE FLEETING WITH JUST A FEW PINHEAD SHOWERS NOTED...
LARGELY DUE TO A WARM NOTCH AROUND 650 MBS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S...SO THE INSTABILITY IS THERE BUT ANY TRIGGERS HAVE BEEN TOO WEAK
TO SUSTAIN STORMS HERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
BEEN SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON RADAR. THE HRRR SEEMS OUT OF
TOUCH WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A POP UP SO HAVE NOT REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM
THE GRIDS. A BETTER CHANCE MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING PER MULTIPLE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
THE NAM12. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED SOME LOW...BUT RELEVANT...
POPS IN THIS PART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND VALLEY FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THESE GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF JACKSON. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWN
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT THAT WILL ACT AS A CAP AND KEEP
ALL THE BUILDUPS BELOW 12K FEET. AS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN AND THE AREAL
EXTEND WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DROP OFF AGAIN
NEAR DAWN AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTING THE GFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
UNREALISTIC DEWPOINTS THE MODEL IS GENERATING. WITH THE DEWPOINTS TO
HIGH...IT TAKES MUCH LESS CONVECTION AND LIFT TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL CHOICE HAS BEEN THE NAM AND HRRR FOR THE
FORECAST. THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE LOWS A
BIT HIGHER AND THE HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATION
ADJUSTMENTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THE FIRST OF A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA
FIRST THING TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP WITH THE FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKELY TO GET
ANY MID LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUPPORT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM
AND LIKELY DROP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHES IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK TO
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT NEAR THE AREA AGAIN...THIS WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST BY SATURDAY WITH GFS AND ECMWF
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES OFF TO THE SOUTH
WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...OPTED TO SQUEEZE A FEW DRY PERIODS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
AND LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN INCREASING TREND ACROSS THE REGION.
SCT TO BKN CIGS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LAYER OF BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS IN THE 10K LEVEL.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY /IF NOT HAMPERED BY THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY
TO HAVE AN EFFECT AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INCREASE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SPAWN SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
THE REGION...THOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES. WITHOUT KNOWING WHERE THIS CONVECTION
WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP...AND HOW FAR EAST TOWARDS THE TAF SITES IT
WILL TRAVEL...CHOSE TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
410 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...
WHILE THE LOCAL AREA IS STILL WAITING ON SOME HELP FROM UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO DRY THINGS OUT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP EXISTS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THE HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN DOING AN
EXCELLENT JOB WITH INITIALIZED REFLECTIVITY LOCATION AND MOVEMENT.
IT SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST PART BY 03Z. BASED
ON YESTERDAY...THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN A COUPLE HOURS SOONER.
MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND THUS HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF
CHANCE POPS THERE.
.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE NM/TX/MEXICO BORDER WILL BEGIN
EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY.
THE CWA WILL STILL BE CAUGHT ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...DAYTIME HEATING WILL FIRE OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF DECENT RAIN COVERAGE. THINKING AROUND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE. WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL BE BACK IN LINE WITH MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR 2.
TROPICS REMAIN QUIET AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXISTS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THERE IS LITTLE APPRECIABLE MODEL CONTINUITY BETWEEN
THEMSELVES AND RUN TO RUN ON DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA OR SOUTHERN
GULF IN THE NEXT WEEK.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR
STATUS THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOW CIGS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT FOG
WHERE MODERATE RAIN FELL TODAY COULD DEVELOP AFTER 6Z. CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OMS ELATE THIS EVNG BUT CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHRA OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TOMORROW LETS DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS/WAVES 2 TO 4
FEET. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH
THE ONLY CHANGE REALLY JUST DIRECTION BECOMING MORE SSE VS MORE
EASTERLY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE TUESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING ISOLATED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
MEFFER
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 88 70 91 / 20 40 10 10
BTR 71 89 73 91 / 20 40 10 10
ASD 70 86 71 89 / 20 50 20 10
MSY 75 86 75 88 / 20 50 20 10
GPT 76 84 76 86 / 30 40 20 10
PQL 70 85 69 87 / 30 40 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
712 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER NRN ONTARIO AND A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...GUSTY WEST WINDS PREVAILED BEHIND
A DEPARTING 993 MB LOW TO NEAR JAMES BAY. RADAR INDICATED A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
RELATIVELY LOW 800 MB TEMPS NEAR 2C ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE DIURNAL CELLULAR CU AND ANY SPRINKLES
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
WED...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NRN
LAKES AND KEEPS THE ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDAY WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM
SRN IA INTO NRN IL. WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...PROMINENT LAKE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. DEEP MIXING ABOVE 850 MB WILL DROP AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS BELOW 40F WITH RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT AS INLAND HIGH TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AT 00Z THURSDAY THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE STRETCHED FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND WI. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDED FROM
THE MAIN HIGH OVER THE S U.S. UP THROUGH MN AND ONTARIO. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ONE ALTERNATE/WETTEST
SOLUTION IS THE 03/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...WHICH PAINTS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA ALREADY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
LESS WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
CENTRAL AND E MN /AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM/. WILL KEEP THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...BUT ALSO ADD SOME
INLAND W THIRD CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
100-300J/KG CAPE VALUES AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES. PUT IN A QUICK 20
POP...BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT REMAINS DRY.
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE THE RULE THURSDAY...AND PRIMARILY
OFF LAKE MI AND W UPPER MI ON FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPS A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE SHORELINES.
GIVEN THE DRY WEATHER...FIRE CONCERNS WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK INTO
THE WEATHER PICTURE. DOWNGRADED THE ELEVATED BACK TO LIMITED IN THE
EHWO FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL...AND CUT
BACK THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY GIVEN THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
EXPECT THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SETTLE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
W UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SHIFTING E SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TRIALLING MAIN 500MB
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE STACKED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SWING
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE FCST. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIMITED AT THIS TIME...SO KEPT THEM
IN FOR ONLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE MAIN
FRONT...WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
DRIER AIR WILL THEN SWEEP IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGERING FOR THE START OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO SAT AS SFC HIGH PRES GENERALLY DOMINATES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC... A TROUGH EXTENDED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES OVER NE MN. A FRONT EXTENDED
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NRN MN. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS
LIFTING QUICKLY TO THE ENE INTO THE FAR ERN CWA LEAVING SCT/ISOLD
SHRA OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD TSRA OVER NW WI.
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE SCT SHRA
INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FCST MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE
400-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEST AFT 06Z. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
TUESDAY...SCT SHRA IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING AND STRONG DRYING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SHRTWV. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FAR E ON NW FLOW FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE EXITING 500MB LOW JUST W OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
LAKE HURON AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT. A SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION
WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND DIVE ACROSS WI
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR S.
IF THE STRONGER 12Z NAM PANS OUT IT COULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY
OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
CLIPPING MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR NOW...AS THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE MOISTURE ABLE TO
ROUND THE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...AVERAGING ABOUT
6HRS WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AT 18Z THURSDAY
OFF THE GFS AND NAM...WHILE ACROSS MUCH WEAKER AND OVER CENTRAL MN
OFF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TREND FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.
EXPECT GOOD MIXING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 750MB...IN
FACT ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 600MB. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT RH VALUES TO SLOWLY
FALL EACH AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTERIOR W AND FAR E. PW
VALUES OFF THE GFS FALL TO AROUND 0.35-0.4IN OVER THE E HALF OF
UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING /NEAR 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. AS NOTED...FIRE CONCERNS WILL INCREASE BUT WINDS SHOULD
KEEP IT FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.
THE NEXT 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS ALBERTA AND AND SASKATCHEWAN ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR SW FLOW TO RETURN ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE N PLAINS. THE SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA
AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH ND. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS MN THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL INTO CANADA...CLOSER TO THE WRAPPED UP 500MB
LOW. SO WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE BEST CHANCE OFF THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS UPPER
MI. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE A MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND S PLAINS AT
18Z SATURDAY TRACKING NE UP THE SFC TROUGH...BY 12Z SUNDAY THE SFC
LOW COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE S MN/WI BORDER TO IA...TO ILLINOIS.
THAT IS ENOUGH SPREAD TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND
SATURDAY...OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT KCMX/KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO IFR/MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON WITH GREATER MIXING WITH
INCREASING WRLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIKEWISE...EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR VFR AT KIWD BEHIND THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD
AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON TUE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR ANY TSRA
OVER MAINLY THE WRN LAKES. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO THU AS A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY SLOWLY
BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-
263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
151 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS MORNING AS SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS
AND SOLID TEMPERATURE ADVECTION HAVE WARMED READINGS TO AROUND 80.
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH LI/S AROUND -4C. WIND FIELDS ARE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE WITH THE 850MB LLJ PROGD TO BE IN THE 30-40
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL JET IS ON THE ORDER OF 45
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 30-40 KNOTS AT 21Z. A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO PLOW EAST AS WELL MARCHING ACROSS
WISCONSIN TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN AT 15Z.
SO...THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST THE
SCATTERED CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. GIVEN A UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE
EXPECTING STRONG WINDS TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. OF EQUAL CONCERN
THOUGH WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS AS PWAT VALUES ARE UP
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS WILL HAVE THE THREAT FOR
MARGINAL HAIL AS WELL.
IN TERMS OF MORPHOLOGY THERE WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL LAKE
SHADOW IN THE DIVERGENT WINDS OFF THE LAKE AT LEAST INITIALLY. LIFT
VIA THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH A DECENT SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE
WEATHER THOUGH WILL BE INLAND FROM NEAR HIGHWAY 131 AND POINTS
EAST. HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD
DISCRETE CELLS FIRING INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A LINE OF
STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD BE
SWEEPING EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 7-9PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST INTO OUR REGION AND STRONG SSW WINDS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT A WARM A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO LOWER MI.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING/MAX
INSTABILITY WHEN SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ML CAPE VALUES WILL REACH
500-1000 J/KG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION WOULD BE
NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131 AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE LATEST
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND FORCING WILL
COME FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WX THREAT IS MITIGATED BY
SEVERAL FACTORS THOUGH INCLUDING RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY/FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TODAY AND WEAK BULK SHEAR
AROUND 20 KTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS
TO IMPACT OUR FCST AREA WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SPREAD IS STILL NOTED
AMONG THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE WITH 00Z NAM SHOWING AN MCS
COULD AFFECT OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH IT/S FURTHER NORTH
SOLUTION.
HOWEVER MOST SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL
EITHER CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA SOUTH OF I-96 OR MISS OUR
AREA ALTOGETHER AND AFFECT IN/OH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THIS POTENTIAL FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
ANOTHER STRETCH OF PLEASANT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES SINKING
FARTHER SOUTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S AND CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN MODERATE TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE WARM
AIR TRIES TO RETURN NORTH AHEAD OF A WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE/AMPLIFIED THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN
FOCUS ON IFR VISIBILITIES IN +TSRA COMES WITH THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN. OB SITES IN
SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL DROPPED DOWN TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR BRIEFLY
AS THE LINE CAME THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE IN THE TSRA ACTIVITY / PERHAPS ENHANCED A BIT
WITH SOME DOWNBURSTS AT OR ABOVE 40 KTS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE AFTER THE MAIN LINE COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BIT OF A
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...HOWEVER.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OPTED TO EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL ZONES GIVEN THE
WINDS IN PLACE AT THE PRESENT TIME. WAVES HAVE BUILT TO AROUND 5
FEET AT THE LUDINGTON BUOY IN THE LONGEST FETCH IN OUR MARINE
ZONES. WAVES ARE MORE IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE FROM GRAND HAVEN TO
THE SOUTH. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH DEW POINT
AIR IS BEING ADVECTED OUT OF THE WATERS OF THE BIG LAKE. BEACH
HAZARDS ARE NOT A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN GIVEN HOW COLD THE WATER IS
STILL. HIGHEST WAVES ARE UP NORTH AND THE WATER TEMP AT LUDINGTON
STATE PARK THIS MORNING WAS 52 DEGREES. SO...NOT EXPECTING A HIGH
POPULATION OF FOLKS VENTURING INTO THE WATER JUST YET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IN A HIGH PWAT / UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL ENSURE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT ALL PLACES WILL BENEFIT FROM
SOAKING RAINS...LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME. SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBS MAY BE PRONE TO
RISES...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. AFTER THIS EVENING...THE
THREAT ENDS. NO FLOODING ON MAIN STEM RIVERS IS OCCURRING.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN
EXPECTED MCS THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS MAY END UP
PROPAGATING JUST SOUTH OF MOST OF OUR CWA...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A
CERTAINTY YET AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
CONCERNS FOCUS ON AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE WRN CWA JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS GENERALLY RESULTED
IN LITTLE TO NO PCPN OVER UPPER MI FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS. YESTERDAYS RAIN SHOWERS AND THE CONTINUED MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS HOWEVER RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS
FOG/STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INLAND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SE PORTION OF UPPER MI ALONG LAKE MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.
EXPECT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL
DIURNAL MIXING HELPS SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVELS BY LATE MORNING. WITH
SPOTTER REPORTS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE KEWEENAW HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 11 AM.
THE LATEST HRRR RUN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF
SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER WI. ONE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SCNTRL
WI INTO NE WI LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ALONG THETA-E RDG AXIS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WHILE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WRN WI IS TIED TO MID-LVL
Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH MN AND NE IA AND
LIFT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BAND OVER SCNTRL ERN WI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALLY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SE UPPER
MI. MEANWHILE...THE RAIN BAND OVER WRN AND NCNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SUPPORTING IT ROTATES
NE FROM MN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF
APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG AND PWATS TO NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
35-40 KT MAY ALLOW SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT MAIN THREATS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO ERN COUNTIES MAINLY
AFT 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TIED WITH THE
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOC SECONDARY COLD FRONT ROTATES THROUGH
THE AREA. LINGERING INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND NEG
SHOWALTER INDICES COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TSRA INTO AT LEAST
THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FAR E ON NW FLOW FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE EXITING 500MB LOW JUST W OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
LAKE HURON AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT. A SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION
WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND DIVE ACROSS WI
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR S.
IF THE STRONGER 12Z NAM PANS OUT IT COULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY
OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
CLIPPING MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR NOW...AS THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE MOISTURE ABLE TO
ROUND THE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...AVERAGING ABOUT
6HRS WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AT 18Z THURSDAY
OFF THE GFS AND NAM...WHILE ACROSS MUCH WEAKER AND OVER CENTRAL MN
OFF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TREND FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.
EXPECT GOOD MIXING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 750MB...IN
FACT ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 600MB. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT RH VALUES TO SLOWLY
FALL EACH AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTERIOR W AND FAR E. PW
VALUES OFF THE GFS FALL TO AROUND 0.35-0.4IN OVER THE E HALF OF
UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING /NEAR 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. AS NOTED...FIRE CONCERNS WILL INCREASE BUT WINDS SHOULD
KEEP IT FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.
THE NEXT 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS ALBERTA AND AND SASKATCHEWAN ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR SW FLOW TO RETURN ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE N PLAINS. THE SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA
AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH ND. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS MN THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL INTO CANADA...CLOSER TO THE WRAPPED UP 500MB
LOW. SO WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE BEST CHANCE OFF THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS UPPER
MI. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE A MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND S PLAINS AT
18Z SATURDAY TRACKING NE UP THE SFC TROUGH...BY 12Z SUNDAY THE SFC
LOW COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE S MN/WI BORDER TO IA...TO ILLINOIS.
THAT IS ENOUGH SPREAD TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND
SATURDAY...OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT KCMX/KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO IFR/MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON WITH GREATER MIXING WITH
INCREASING WRLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIKEWISE...EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR VFR AT KIWD BEHIND THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD
AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON TUE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 30KTS THROUGH THE FCST
PD. LIGHTER WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT AREAS
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE SO HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN ZONE OF LAKE. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
CONCERNS FOCUS ON AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE WRN CWA JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS GENERALLY RESULTED
IN LITTLE TO NO PCPN OVER UPPER MI FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS. YESTERDAYS RAIN SHOWERS AND THE CONTINUED MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS HOWEVER RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS
FOG/STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INLAND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SE PORTION OF UPPER MI ALONG LAKE MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.
EXPECT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL
DIURNAL MIXING HELPS SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVELS BY LATE MORNING. WITH
SPOTTER REPORTS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE KEWEENAW HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 11 AM.
THE LATEST HRRR RUN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF
SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER WI. ONE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SCNTRL
WI INTO NE WI LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ALONG THETA-E RDG AXIS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WHILE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WRN WI IS TIED TO MID-LVL
Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH MN AND NE IA AND
LIFT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BAND OVER SCNTRL ERN WI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALLY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SE UPPER
MI. MEANWHILE...THE RAIN BAND OVER WRN AND NCNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SUPPORTING IT ROTATES
NE FROM MN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF
APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG AND PWATS TO NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
35-40 KT MAY ALLOW SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT MAIN THREATS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO ERN COUNTIES MAINLY
AFT 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TIED WITH THE
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOC SECONDARY COLD FRONT ROTATES THROUGH
THE AREA. LINGERING INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND NEG
SHOWALTER INDICES COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TSRA INTO AT LEAST
THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FAR E ON NW FLOW FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE EXITING 500MB LOW JUST W OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
LAKE HURON AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT. A SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION
WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND DIVE ACROSS WI
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR S.
IF THE STRONGER 12Z NAM PANS OUT IT COULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY
OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
CLIPPING MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR NOW...AS THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE MOISTURE ABLE TO
ROUND THE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...AVERAGING ABOUT
6HRS WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AT 18Z THURSDAY
OFF THE GFS AND NAM...WHILE ACROSS MUCH WEAKER AND OVER CENTRAL MN
OFF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TREND FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.
EXPECT GOOD MIXING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 750MB...IN
FACT ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 600MB. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT RH VALUES TO SLOWLY
FALL EACH AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTERIOR W AND FAR E. PW
VALUES OFF THE GFS FALL TO AROUND 0.35-0.4IN OVER THE E HALF OF
UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING /NEAR 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. AS NOTED...FIRE CONCERNS WILL INCREASE BUT WINDS SHOULD
KEEP IT FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.
THE NEXT 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS ALBERTA AND AND SASKATCHEWAN ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR SW FLOW TO RETURN ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE N PLAINS. THE SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA
AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH ND. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS MN THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL INTO CANADA...CLOSER TO THE WRAPPED UP 500MB
LOW. SO WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE BEST CHANCE OFF THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS UPPER
MI. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE A MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND S PLAINS AT
18Z SATURDAY TRACKING NE UP THE SFC TROUGH...BY 12Z SUNDAY THE SFC
LOW COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE S MN/WI BORDER TO IA...TO ILLINOIS.
THAT IS ENOUGH SPREAD TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND
SATURDAY...OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT KCMX AND KSAW WILL
IMPROVE TO IFR OR MVFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED
MIXING AND THE ONSET OF STEADIER SHRA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING IN FM MN. CONDITIONS AT KIWD WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR THIS MORNING UNDER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR OR VFR BEHIND THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING
MOISTURE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR
OR LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 30KTS THROUGH THE FCST
PD. LIGHTER WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT AREAS
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE SO HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN ZONE OF LAKE. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1142 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS MORNING AS SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS
AND SOLID TEMPERATURE ADVECTION HAVE WARMED READINGS TO AROUND 80.
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH LI/S AROUND -4C. WIND FIELDS ARE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE WITH THE 850MB LLJ PROGD TO BE IN THE 30-40
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL JET IS ON THE ORDER OF 45
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 30-40 KNOTS AT 21Z. A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO PLOW EAST AS WELL MARCHING ACROSS
WISCONSIN TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN AT 15Z.
SO...THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST THE
SCATTERED CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. GIVEN A UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE
EXPECTING STRONG WINDS TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. OF EQUAL CONCERN
THOUGH WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS AS PWAT VALUES ARE UP
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS WILL HAVE THE THREAT FOR
MARGINAL HAIL AS WELL.
IN TERMS OF MORPHOLOGY THERE WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL LAKE
SHADOW IN THE DIVERGENT WINDS OFF THE LAKE AT LEAST INITIALLY. LIFT
VIA THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH A DECENT SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE
WEATHER THOUGH WILL BE INLAND FROM NEAR HIGHWAY 131 AND POINTS
EAST. HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD
DISCRETE CELLS FIRING INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A LINE OF
STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD BE
SWEEPING EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 7-9PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST INTO OUR REGION AND STRONG SSW WINDS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT A WARM A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO LOWER MI.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING/MAX
INSTABILITY WHEN SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ML CAPE VALUES WILL REACH
500-1000 J/KG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION WOULD BE
NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131 AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE LATEST
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND FORCING WILL
COME FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WX THREAT IS MITIGATED BY
SEVERAL FACTORS THOUGH INCLUDING RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY/FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TODAY AND WEAK BULK SHEAR
AROUND 20 KTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS
TO IMPACT OUR FCST AREA WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SPREAD IS STILL NOTED
AMONG THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE WITH 00Z NAM SHOWING AN MCS
COULD AFFECT OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH IT/S FURTHER NORTH
SOLUTION.
HOWEVER MOST SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL
EITHER CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA SOUTH OF I-96 OR MISS OUR
AREA ALTOGETHER AND AFFECT IN/OH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THIS POTENTIAL FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
ANOTHER STRETCH OF PLEASANT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES SINKING
FARTHER SOUTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S AND CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN MODERATE TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE WARM
AIR TRIES TO RETURN NORTH AHEAD OF A WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE/AMPLIFIED THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AT 12Z WILL BE REPLACED BY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME PREDOMINATELY MVFR AS THIS OCCURS... ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY
20Z AND 23Z... WITH VFR FOLLOWING BEHIND THE RAIN. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AFTER DARK...
PARTICULARLY EAST OF GRR/AZO... BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME.
SOUTH SFC WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OPTED TO EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL ZONES GIVEN THE
WINDS IN PLACE AT THE PRESENT TIME. WAVES HAVE BUILT TO AROUND 5
FEET AT THE LUDINGTON BUOY IN THE LONGEST FETCH IN OUR MARINE
ZONES. WAVES ARE MORE IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE FROM GRAND HAVEN TO
THE SOUTH. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH DEW POINT
AIR IS BEING ADVECTED OUT OF THE WATERS OF THE BIG LAKE. BEACH
HAZARDS ARE NOT A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN GIVEN HOW COLD THE WATER IS
STILL. HIGHEST WAVES ARE UP NORTH AND THE WATER TEMP AT LUDINGTON
STATE PARK THIS MORNING WAS 52 DEGREES. SO...NOT EXPECTING A HIGH
POPULATION OF FOLKS VENTURING INTO THE WATER JUST YET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
RIVER LEVELS ARE DECREASING SLOWLY BUT MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS... RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL PROBABLY RISE A BIT. QPF
FROM A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
750 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
CONCERNS FOCUS ON AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE WRN CWA JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS GENERALLY RESULTED
IN LITTLE TO NO PCPN OVER UPPER MI FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS. YESTERDAYS RAIN SHOWERS AND THE CONTINUED MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS HOWEVER RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS
FOG/STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INLAND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SE PORTION OF UPPER MI ALONG LAKE MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.
EXPECT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL
DIURNAL MIXING HELPS SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVELS BY LATE MORNING. WITH
SPOTTER REPORTS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE KEWEENAW HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 11 AM.
THE LATEST HRRR RUN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF
SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER WI. ONE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SCNTRL
WI INTO NE WI LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ALONG THETA-E RDG AXIS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WHILE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WRN WI IS TIED TO MID-LVL
Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH MN AND NE IA AND
LIFT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BAND OVER SCNTRL ERN WI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALLY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SE UPPER
MI. MEANWHILE...THE RAIN BAND OVER WRN AND NCNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SUPPORTING IT ROTATES
NE FROM MN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF
APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG AND PWATS TO NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
35-40 KT MAY ALLOW SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT MAIN THREATS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO ERN COUNTIES MAINLY
AFT 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TIED WITH THE
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOC SECONDARY COLD FRONT ROTATES THROUGH
THE AREA. LINGERING INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND NEG
SHOWALTER INDICES COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TSRA INTO AT LEAST
THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN A
TRANSITION TO ANOTHER PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS THIS LOWS CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...A LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OR WESTERN U.P. EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE FEATURES SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE EXPECTED LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY VALUES IN THE
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO SHIFT EAST BUT WILL ALSO BE
PULLED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WILL ATTEMPT TO
SHIFT THE POPS (CHANCES) EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHILE ALSO
DIMINISHING THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE DEEP MOISTURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST...SO WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO A WEST TO
EAST DIMINISHING TREND TO THE FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TREND
SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20KTS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS (25
KTS) OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE DIFFICULT ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM START TO THE
DAY...THEN COOLING WITH THE MORNING RAIN SHOWERS...BEFORE WARMING
AGAIN WITH SOME SUN IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH THE
KEWEENAW MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT FROM A PARENT HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK SHIFT EAST. IT WAS HINTED AT YESTERDAY AND CONTINUED WITH
TODAYS 00Z RUNS THAT A FINAL SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...SO WILL JUST
MENTION A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME OVER THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...MAY SEEM SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP
MOVES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
KEEP THINGS COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR (TEMPS IN THE 50S)...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST WHERE THE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS AND A LITTLE STRONGER
WINDS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOWER
70S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER.
BEHIND THIS LAST WAVE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER FOR THE U.P. THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND
GENERALLY NORMAL TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S (SOME UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY NIGHT) FOR
LOWS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND LEAD TO THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS WAVE COULD LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS NEARING WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL JUST SHOW SOME INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL VARY ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA SHOWN BY THEM AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT KCMX AND KSAW WILL
IMPROVE TO IFR OR MVFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED
MIXING AND THE ONSET OF STEADIER SHRA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING IN FM MN. CONDITIONS AT KIWD WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR THIS MORNING UNDER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR OR VFR BEHIND THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING
MOISTURE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR
OR LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 30KTS THROUGH THE FCST
PD. LIGHTER WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT AREAS
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE SO HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN ZONE OF LAKE. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR LSZ162-
240>250-263>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
549 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
CONCERNS FOCUS ON AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE WRN CWA JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS GENERALLY RESULTED
IN LITTLE TO NO PCPN OVER UPPER MI FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS. YESTERDAYS RAIN SHOWERS AND THE CONTINUED MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS HOWEVER RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS
FOG/STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INLAND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SE PORTION OF UPPER MI ALONG LAKE MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.
EXPECT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL
DIURNAL MIXING HELPS SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVELS BY LATE MORNING. WITH
SPOTTER REPORTS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE KEWEENAW HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 11 AM.
THE LATEST HRRR RUN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF
SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER WI. ONE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SCNTRL
WI INTO NE WI LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ALONG THETA-E RDG AXIS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WHILE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WRN WI IS TIED TO MID-LVL
Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH MN AND NE IA AND
LIFT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BAND OVER SCNTRL ERN WI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALLY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SE UPPER
MI. MEANWHILE...THE RAIN BAND OVER WRN AND NCNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SUPPORTING IT ROTATES
NE FROM MN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF
APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG AND PWATS TO NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
35-40 KT MAY ALLOW SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT MAIN THREATS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO ERN COUNTIES MAINLY
AFT 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TIED WITH THE
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOC SECONDARY COLD FRONT ROTATES THROUGH
THE AREA. LINGERING INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND NEG
SHOWALTER INDICES COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TSRA INTO AT LEAST
THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN A
TRANSITION TO ANOTHER PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS THIS LOWS CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...A LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OR WESTERN U.P. EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE FEATURES SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE EXPECTED LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY VALUES IN THE
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO SHIFT EAST BUT WILL ALSO BE
PULLED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WILL ATTEMPT TO
SHIFT THE POPS (CHANCES) EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHILE ALSO
DIMINISHING THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE DEEP MOISTURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST...SO WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO A WEST TO
EAST DIMINISHING TREND TO THE FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TREND
SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20KTS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS (25
KTS) OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE DIFFICULT ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM START TO THE
DAY...THEN COOLING WITH THE MORNING RAIN SHOWERS...BEFORE WARMING
AGAIN WITH SOME SUN IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH THE
KEWEENAW MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT FROM A PARENT HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK SHIFT EAST. IT WAS HINTED AT YESTERDAY AND CONTINUED WITH
TODAYS 00Z RUNS THAT A FINAL SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...SO WILL JUST
MENTION A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME OVER THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...MAY SEEM SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP
MOVES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
KEEP THINGS COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR (TEMPS IN THE 50S)...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST WHERE THE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS AND A LITTLE STRONGER
WINDS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOWER
70S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER.
BEHIND THIS LAST WAVE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER FOR THE U.P. THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND
GENERALLY NORMAL TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S (SOME UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY NIGHT) FOR
LOWS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND LEAD TO THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS WAVE COULD LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS NEARING WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL JUST SHOW SOME INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL VARY ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA SHOWN BY THEM AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LIGHT WINDS AND FOG/STRATUS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR AT KIWD... LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW AND VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCMX. EXPECT THE
MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK MONDAY TO PUSH INTO W
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 30KTS THROUGH THE FCST
PD. LIGHTER WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT AREAS
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE SO HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN ZONE OF LAKE. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR LSZ162-
240>250-263>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
405 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL HANDLING
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF WI...WHERE
THEY HAD FEWER CLOUDS /INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY/. MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ARE ABUNDANT IN THIS AREA...AND AS EXPECTED
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF AWAY FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI.
GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.5 IN OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 180-220 PERCENT OF NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR 1.6 TO 1.8IN. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT OR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN
WI...AROUND 45MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR AREA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A BIT
STRONGER...EVEN THROUGH INSTABILITY LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO MORE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FAR E UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 10-15KTS...TEMPS
HAVE ROSE NEAR 80F INLAND FROM LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON...AND HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT /MAINLY AT RACO/. THE WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z...AND WAS TAKEN
OFF THE TOP NEWS EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO NEAR THIS
AREA...BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC IS KEEPING MUCH IF ANYTHING FROM
ACCUMULATING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...NOT ONLY AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 50S.
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR W WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY...LIKELY AROUND SE LAKE SUPERIOR/E UPPER
MI. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE
SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID 70S OVER THE W HALF...AND LIKELY FAR E UPPER MI ON MONDAY.
LOOK FOR MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RESIDE OF THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z /NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THERE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST/...BEFORE EXPANDING E THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN A
TRANSITION TO ANOTHER PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS THIS LOWS CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...A LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OR WESTERN U.P. EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE FEATURES SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE EXPECTED LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY VALUES IN THE
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO SHIFT EAST BUT WILL ALSO BE
PULLED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WILL ATTEMPT TO
SHIFT THE POPS (CHANCES) EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHILE ALSO
DIMINISHING THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE DEEP MOISTURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST...SO WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO A WEST TO
EAST DIMINISHING TREND TO THE FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TREND
SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20KTS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS (25
KTS) OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE DIFFICULT ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM START TO THE
DAY...THEN COOLING WITH THE MORNING RAIN SHOWERS...BEFORE WARMING
AGAIN WITH SOME SUN IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH THE
KEWEENAW MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT FROM A PARENT HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK SHIFT EAST. IT WAS HINTED AT YESTERDAY AND CONTINUED WITH
TODAYS 00Z RUNS THAT A FINAL SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...SO WILL JUST
MENTION A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME OVER THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...MAY SEEM SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP
MOVES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
KEEP THINGS COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR (TEMPS IN THE 50S)...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST WHERE THE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS AND A LITTLE STRONGER
WINDS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOWER
70S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER.
BEHIND THIS LAST WAVE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER FOR THE U.P. THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND
GENERALLY NORMAL TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S (SOME UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY NIGHT) FOR
LOWS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND LEAD TO THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS WAVE COULD LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS NEARING WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL JUST SHOW SOME INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL VARY ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA SHOWN BY THEM AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LIGHT WINDS AND FOG/STRATUS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR AT KIWD... LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW AND VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCMX. EXPECT THE
MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK MONDAY TO PUSH INTO W
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FALL BELOW 3MI VIS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE W HALF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE E HALF. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS W LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS A LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S
JAMES BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON
BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162-240>250-263>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL HANDLING
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF WI...WHERE
THEY HAD FEWER CLOUDS /INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY/. MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ARE ABUNDANT IN THIS AREA...AND AS EXPECTED
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF AWAY FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI.
GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.5 IN OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 180-220 PERCENT OF NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR 1.6 TO 1.8IN. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT OR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN
WI...AROUND 45MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR AREA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A BIT
STRONGER...EVEN THROUGH INSTABILITY LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO MORE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FAR E UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 10-15KTS...TEMPS
HAVE ROSE NEAR 80F INLAND FROM LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON...AND HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT /MAINLY AT RACO/. THE WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z...AND WAS TAKEN
OFF THE TOP NEWS EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO NEAR THIS
AREA...BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC IS KEEPING MUCH IF ANYTHING FROM
ACCUMULATING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...NOT ONLY AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 50S.
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR W WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY...LIKELY AROUND SE LAKE SUPERIOR/E UPPER
MI. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE
SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID 70S OVER THE W HALF...AND LIKELY FAR E UPPER MI ON MONDAY.
LOOK FOR MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RESIDE OF THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z /NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THERE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST/...BEFORE EXPANDING E THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AFTER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...FCST WILL HINGE UPON HOW FAST THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN OR HOW FAST IT IS FORCED E BY NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS W AND
CNTRL NAMERICA. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WET WEATHER HERE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA...THEN DRY WEATHER MID
AND LATE WEEK AS APPROACHING MID/UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A TYPICAL
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN AS ICE FILLED HUDSON BAY AND THE CHILLY
GREAT LAKES ENHANCE SFC HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT. IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...TEMPS THIS WEEK SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM EARLY JUNE
NORMALS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TEMPS SOMEWHAT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST WEATHER IN THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
BEGINNING MON NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR OR PERHAPS FAR WRN UPPER MI AND THEN ON INTO NRN ONTARIO BY
TUE MORNING. BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL
BE DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE AS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA AND MIDLEVEL DRYING ARRIVES. THIS DRYING IS MORE PRONOUNCED
OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS...MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN
MON AFTN MOVING INTO UPPER MI EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE W MON NIGHT. ALONG WITH APPROACH
OF THE ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROF...SOME SHRA WILL
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE W. AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPS E ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SHRA CHANCES WILL SPREAD E TUE
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING MAY FURTHER AID EXPANSION OF SHRA TUE OVER
THE E. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER OVER
THE E...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS EARLY IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH ALMOST NO MLCAPE INDICATED...WILL LEAVE THUNDER
MENTION OUT. BULK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY
JUST N OF UPPER MI...SO STEADIER RAIN SHOULD PASS BY TO THE N.
HOWEVER...THE KEWEENAW MAY GET BRUSHED BY THE MORE PERSISTENT SHRA
TUE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
CHILLY/MISERABLE AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND
BRISK WNW WINDS OFF COLD LAKE SUPERIOR. FOG THAT WILL BE EXPANDING
AND BECOMING MORE DENSE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/MON AND PROBABLY
DEVELOPING ON NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKES WHENEVER WINDS ARE ONSHORE. THE FOG WILL CLEAR OFF THE
LAKES TUE.
LINGERING SHRA SHOULD END FROM SW TO NE TUE AFTN AND TUE NIGHT AS
MID/UPPER TROF SLOWLY EDGES E. WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR WED/THU AS MID/UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
-SHRA/SPRINKLES AT SOME POINT LATER WED/EARLY THU DUE TO ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE ECMWF IS STRONGEST
WITH THIS FEATURE...FOLLOWED BY THE GEM. THE GFS IS WEAKEST AND
SHOWS NO IMPACT FROM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BACKING OFF ON
THIS WAVE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/PARTLY CLOUDY FCST. ALSO...CONCERNS
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SHORTWAVES TRACKING E ACROSS THE
CNTRL CONUS AND BRINGING A SHRA THREAT TO THE FCST AREA ARE
BASICALLY GONE NOW AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW DEPARTING
TROF/APPROACHING RIDGE SUPPRESSING SHORTWAVES. OTHERWISE...GRADIENT
NRLY WIND DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING S FROM NRN MANITOBA/HUDSON
BAY/NRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD A CHILLY DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON WED.
EXPECT 50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH MANY LAKESIDE LOCATIONS PROBABLY
HOLDING IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WELL IN THE INTERIOR...
EXPECT 60S TO LWR 70S. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW SIDE
OF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR
MASS. THU NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES
RIDGE OVERHEAD. TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS MIGHT SLIP INTO THE UPPER
30S.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...FCST FOR FRI THRU THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS W AND CNTRL NAMERICA CAN
EITHER PUSH RIDGE EASTWARD OR SUPPRESS IT. USUALLY THERE IS A BIAS
TO BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO QUICKLY IN THE LONGER RANGE...SO PLAN TO
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN REPRESENTED BY THE
ECMWF FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER
TO LINGER FRI/SAT AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
TO HUDSON BAY. TRAILING...DECAYING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE
MAY BRING SOME -SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI AS EARLY AS LATE FRI. WILL BE
SOMETHING TO LOOK FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR SUN AS IT APPEARS TROF WILL FORCE RIDGE
EASTWARD. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER FRI/SAT...BUT
OVERALL...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LIGHT WINDS AND FOG/STRATUS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR AT KIWD... LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW AND VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCMX. EXPECT THE
MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK MONDAY TO PUSH INTO W
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FALL BELOW 3MI VIS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE W HALF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE E HALF. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS W LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS A LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S
JAMES BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON
BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162-240>250-263>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
DENSE FOG IS MAKING A STRONG PUSH INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING AS OBSERVED ON AREA WEB CAMS. THIS VERIFIES WELL WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING A PUSH OF FOG INLAND TONIGHT.
THE APPROACHING MESO-LOW TO THE SW IS PRODUCING RAPID PRESSURE
FALLS TO THE WEST AND ALLOWING THE WINDS ACROSS WRN LS TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE N/NE AND DRAWING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE IN ACROSS THE
TWIN PORTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE
ZONES AND ALSO THE LAND ZONES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND AROUND THE
TWIN PORTS.
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV TRACK NEWD INTO THE AREA AND THE
UPPER S/W LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 500MB S/W WILL BE THE
MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ALLOW THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT ATMOSPHERE TO BE TAPPED...AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MDT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HVY RAIN IN ISO/SCT T-STORMS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ST. LOUIS RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. A SIGNIFICANT DUMP OF RAIN WAS SEEN THIS
EVENING AROUND HIBBING...WITH OVER 2 INCHES IN VERY SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS WATER...COMBINED WITH THE RAIN THAT FALLS TONIGHT
IN THE ST. LOUIS BASIN WILL DRAIN QUICKLY IN THE SATURATED SOILS
AND CAUSE THE RIVER LEVEL TO RISE RAPIDLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE SOGGY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST SAW LIGHT RAIN OR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE TODAY AS
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE IRON RANGE/MN ARROWHEAD. THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
AS A SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND TRACKS OVER NORTHERN
MN THROUGH MONDAY.
THE PERIOD FOR BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL
ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCT THUNDER IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES INTO NW WISCONSIN. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE THE
DRY SLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY LIMIT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THERE IS A CORRIDOR OF LARGE MID LEVEL OMEGA ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE LOW THAT LIFTS OVER NE MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
OFF ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN AND
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER GOING OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
SHIFT EAST THE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A BAND OF RAIN...CLOUDY
AND COOL CONDITIONS WHICH CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
RAIN CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY TO SEE GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...WITH SOME SUNSHINE APPEARING FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN
HALF BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
70S AS WESTERLIES BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES TO FALL
OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE RIDGE HELPING
TO PUSH A BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SOME MODELS ARE PUSHING A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AND HAVE ONLY SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR NOW. HAVE HIGHS RISING INTO
THE LOW 70S BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS STILL IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH MODEST STRENGTHENING AND AN INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER S/W MOVES
IN FROM THE SW. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. EAST WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
VSBYS AND CIGS LOW AROUND DLH THROUGH MONDAY MID MORNING. IFR CIGS
AND MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MON MORNING ELSEWHERE WITH A
GRADUAL LIFT TO MVFR/VFR IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. RAIN COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
DRYING OUT TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS. LGT VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SWLY ON MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY W/NWLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
GUSTY...UP TO 20 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 72 50 69 / 60 30 10 10
INL 51 73 45 74 / 70 20 10 10
BRD 55 76 53 74 / 50 10 10 10
HYR 56 72 48 73 / 50 30 10 10
ASX 50 70 46 66 / 60 40 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ012-019>021-025-026-
033>038.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
037.
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1212 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
STILL STUCK IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN TO START THIS PERIOD...THOUGH
WE WILL FINALLY START TURNING THE CORNER IN TERMS OF ROOTING THIS
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OUT OF HERE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...THERE ARE TWO KEY FEATURES THAT WILL IMPACT THE MPX
CWA...THE FIRST IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER SE SODAK THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MPX
AREA AS IT WORK NE THIS EVENING. THE SECOND FEATURE IS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH BACK BY THE BLACK HILLS THAT WILL BRING A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LIGHTER AND LIKELY MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF SW
MN INTO THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
OUT THE GATE...WE HAVE SEE AN E-W ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS NRN IA WITHIN A ZONE OF CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT IS
GETTING FORCED UP AND OVER AN OUTFLOW INDUCED BOUNDARY. BIG QUESTION
FOR THE MPX AREA IS HOW WILL THIS IMPACT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY
FROM ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THIS WILL KEEP THE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE TRAINING IS MORE
LIKELY...BUT MESOANALYSIS HAS SHOWN THAT MLCAPES ACROSS WRN MN HAVE
RECOVERED TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OUT IN WRN MN WHERE THE SUN
HAS BRIEFLY MADE AN APPEARANCE. AS THIS CLEARING WORKS EAST...DO
EXPECT THE CAPE RECOVERY TO WORK EAST WITH IT AS WELL...SO LINE
CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE NEAR SIOUX FALLS WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO
SRN MN. FOLLOWED THE HRRR TO WORK THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AS IT HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON IT ALL
AFTERNOON AND IT MATCHES UP WELL WITH HOW THE HRRR BRINGS ANOTHER
SURGE OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO MN AHEAD OF THE
SODAK SHORT WAVE. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE ABOUT TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE IS WE ACTUALLY HAVE SHEAR TODAY...SO WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH A MAINLY WIND THREAT WITH THIS LINE AS IT WORKS ENE.
THERE IS GOOD NEWS THOUGH ABOUT THE ADDITION OF SHEAR TODAY...AND
THAT IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AS WE
HEAD FARTHER OUT IN TIME...SO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...NSSL Q3 RADAR ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT A LARGE SWATH OF OUR AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH PARTS WESTERN STEARNS COUNTY UP CLOSER TO 8 INCHES OF
RAIN SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTED THIS NEXT
BATCH OF STORMS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE...RECENT WET CONDITIONS
HAVE OUR FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS AT INCREDIBLY LOW LEVELS AT THE
MOMENT...WITH CURRENT 1 HR AND 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DOWN IN
THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.
THIS SECONDARY WAVE BACK IN NODAK IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE AS
TO HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITH IT...BUT EXPECT IT TO INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE NW CWA LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. GOING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...THIS WILL WILL TRAVEL
MORE OR LESS DOWN I-94...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDS. FORTUNATELY...ANY ACTIVITY WE
SEE MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHTER /AS PWATS BEGIN TO RECEDE FROM
THERE CURRENT LEVELS AROUND 1.75 INCHES...WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. SO FOR THAT
REASON...CONTINUED TO LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE THROUGH 18Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
BY MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT... AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME NEED TO KEEP POPS GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
LINGERING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.
AFTER THAT... WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO KEEP THINGS DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... AT THAT POINT
WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEP
BACK NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA... CLOSER TO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY... FRONTOGENESIS... AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER... CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PCPN FARTHER NORTH GIVEN
SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE 700-500MB LAYER AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED NORTH AND SATURATE THINGS NEAR 700MB.
SO... ALLOWED FOR CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SCOOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
NEXT SYSTEM AFTER THAT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY AS FLOW TURNS A
LITTLE MORE ZONAL. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THEN HEADS MORE EASTERLY BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEAST AGAIN. MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF ANY LEAD
SHORT WAVES AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT LOOKS
LIKE MN/WI WILL BE BACK IN UPPER SW FLOW LATE THIS WEEK...MERITING
CHANCE POPS. WITH UPPER LOW NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE BORDER... THIS
WILL NOT BE AN EXCEEDINGLY WARM PERIOD...AND IN FACT...TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. ONCE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
NEXT WEEKEND...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 70 NEXT WEEKEND OVER CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WISC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AND IMPACT MANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
09 TO 10Z. BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHSIDE OF THE LOW AND CIGS WILL LIFT.
DEEP MIXING WILL LIFT CIGS FURTHER AS WINDS GUST TO 30 KT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...BUT CHANCES HAVE DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
KMSP...MVFR CIGS HAVE ARRIVED...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
PERIODS THAT SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS FILL IN
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH RESPECT TO HOW LOW CIGS
GO...SEVERAL UPSTREAM OBS ARE IFR OE LOWER. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED OVERNIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND E-SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>043-048-
049-055>057.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...TDK/TRH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1033 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Based on rainfall rates observed with the storms in far northern
Missouri, have opted to expand the flash flood watch to include all
the counties that tornado watch 210 include. This includes the KC
metro. Rainfall rates of two inches per hour, and some higher, will
be likely with the storms that occur late tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Tornado watch 210 has been expanded south from its original coverage
area based on storm motion associated with the activity currently in
southeast Nebraska. The storms are beginning to turn more southeast
as the low level jet begins to veer this evening. Main threat with
the storms is going to be large hail, damaging winds and torrential
rain. Tornadoes can`t be ruled out, but they are not the primary
threat at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Significant severe episode well underway although the vast majority
of the CWA is dry and will remain so until around sunset when the
upstream MCS/eventual Derecho presses into northern MO. Northern MO
remains under the highest threat for both severe storms as well as
flooding type rainfall. This due to the location of a nearly
stationary front draped across far northern MO and is depicted by
change in character of the cu field and surface obs. Small cluster
of severe storms tracking along the MO/IA border is being enhanced
by strong 0-6km shear of 50-65kts while the 0-1km shear around 20kts
is likely just not strong enough to support for tornadic activity.
However, these values will increase as evening approaches so any
additional storms which form ahead of the approaching MCS will have
a greater chance to spawn tornadoes. A look at the STJ hodograph for
this evening shows why. Impressive as is the MUCAPES of
3000-4000J/kg.
12Z ECMWF and HRRR appear to have best fit of evolution of the large
MCS and backbuilding convection now underway across northern NE.
Current radar trends and HRRR output surge the MCS southeast through
the north central and northeast CWA this evening while the
backbuilding convection over northern NE slides through northwest MO
and northeast KS with possibilities of reaching the KC Metro after
midnight. Current Flash Flood watch over northern MO looks on track.
Convection will finally exit the eastern CWA during the per-dawn
hours of Wednesday morning. A post-frontal cold front will trail and
eventually sweep through the CWA on Wednesday. The cold air
advection will lag allowing favorable mixing of the elevated warm layer
to mix down resulting in another very warm day. Could see highs
around 90 across the far southern CWA. Will keep slight chance PoPs
across this area as peak heating and some convergence along the
front could form isolated convection.
This front is not expected to move too far south of the CWA with the
very moist and unstable airmass poised to the south of the frontal
boundary. Models embed a number of weak shortwave troughs within
moderately strong westerlies crossing the Central Rockies and Central
Plains Wednesday night through Thursday night. In fact this pattern will
continue into the weekend. Elevated convection is the end result as
these shortwaves lift the unstable air above the boundary and
generate scattered convection. Could see a couple additional rounds of
convection. Temperatures will likely be a tad below average as we`ll
be under easterly flow from high pressure.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A quasi-zonal pattern will remain quite active through the end of
the extended forecast period. A number of shortwave troughs will
translate through the flow and will bring a few chances for heavy
rainfall through the beginning of the weekend. One round of precip will
develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday morning. Another
convective complex will develop Friday and continue into Saturday
with the potential for more heavy rainfall as models forecasting
precipitable water values of 1 to over 2 inches across the general region
With the Gulf wide open, do not see any issues with moisture return
during this period, however, exact timing of these systems still
remains in question.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Tricky TAF period with ongoing convection across NE, IA, and northern
MO which is progged by the hi-res HRRR model to drop southeastward
across NW Missouri down through east-central Missouri. This convection
appears to be following a warm frontal boundary. Isolated convection
developing near the terminals is currently moving northeastward
towards this front. As the cold pool continues to strengthen along
this warm front, the front may begin to sag southward and allow the
southwest end of the convective complex to near the terminals.
Confidence is low on how far south this complex will extend, thus
will monitor trends of the complex and amend as necessary. For now
have left mention of VCTS for the terminals for isolated activity.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ025-102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>030-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cutter
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Tornado watch 210 has been expanded south from its original coverage
area based on storm motion associated with the activity currently in
southeast Nebraska. The storms are beginning to turn more southeast
as the low level jet begins to veer this evening. Main threat with
the storms is going to be large hail, damaging winds and torrential
rain. Tornadoes can`t be ruled out, but they are not the primary
threat at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Significant severe episode well underway although the vast majority
of the CWA is dry and will remain so until around sunset when the
upstream MCS/eventual Derecho presses into northern MO. Northern MO
remains under the highest threat for both severe storms as well as
flooding type rainfall. This due to the location of a nearly
stationary front draped across far northern MO and is depicted by
change in character of the cu field and surface obs. Small cluster
of severe storms tracking along the MO/IA border is being enhanced
by strong 0-6km shear of 50-65kts while the 0-1km shear around 20kts
is likely just not strong enough to support for tornadic activity.
However, these values will increase as evening approaches so any
additional storms which form ahead of the approaching MCS will have
a greater chance to spawn tornadoes. A look at the STJ hodograph for
this evening shows why. Impressive as is the MUCAPES of
3000-4000J/kg.
12Z ECMWF and HRRR appear to have best fit of evolution of the large
MCS and backbuilding convection now underway across northern NE.
Current radar trends and HRRR output surge the MCS southeast through
the north central and northeast CWA this evening while the
backbuilding convection over northern NE slides through northwest MO
and northeast KS with possibilities of reaching the KC Metro after
midnight. Current Flash Flood watch over northern MO looks on track.
Convection will finally exit the eastern CWA during the per-dawn
hours of Wednesday morning. A post-frontal cold front will trail and
eventually sweep through the CWA on Wednesday. The cold air
advection will lag allowing favorable mixing of the elevated warm layer
to mix down resulting in another very warm day. Could see highs
around 90 across the far southern CWA. Will keep slight chance PoPs
across this area as peak heating and some convergence along the
front could form isolated convection.
This front is not expected to move too far south of the CWA with the
very moist and unstable airmass poised to the south of the frontal
boundary. Models embed a number of weak shortwave troughs within
moderately strong westerlies crossing the Central Rockies and Central
Plains Wednesday night through Thursday night. In fact this pattern will
continue into the weekend. Elevated convection is the end result as
these shortwaves lift the unstable air above the boundary and
generate scattered convection. Could see a couple additional rounds of
convection. Temperatures will likely be a tad below average as we`ll
be under easterly flow from high pressure.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A quasi-zonal pattern will remain quite active through the end of
the extended forecast period. A number of shortwave troughs will
translate through the flow and will bring a few chances for heavy
rainfall through the beginning of the weekend. One round of precip will
develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday morning. Another
convective complex will develop Friday and continue into Saturday
with the potential for more heavy rainfall as models forecasting
precipitable water values of 1 to over 2 inches across the general region
With the Gulf wide open, do not see any issues with moisture return
during this period, however, exact timing of these systems still
remains in question.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Tricky TAF period with ongoing convection across NE, IA, and northern
MO which is progged by the hi-res HRRR model to drop southeastward
across NW Missouri down through east-central Missouri. This convection
appears to be following a warm frontal boundary. Isolated convection
developing near the terminals is currently moving northeastward
towards this front. As the cold pool continues to strengthen along
this warm front, the front may begin to sag southward and allow the
southwest end of the convective complex to near the terminals.
Confidence is low on how far south this complex will extend, thus
will monitor trends of the complex and amend as necessary. For now
have left mention of VCTS for the terminals for isolated activity.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ001>008-
015>017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cutter
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
643 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Significant severe episode well underway although the vast majority
of the CWA is dry and will remain so until around sunset when the
upstream MCS/eventual Derecho presses into northern MO. Northern MO
remains under the highest threat for both severe storms as well as
flooding type rainfall. This due to the location of a nearly
stationary front draped across far northern MO and is depicted by
change in character of the cu field and surface obs. Small cluster
of severe storms tracking along the MO/IA border is being enhanced
by strong 0-6km shear of 50-65kts while the 0-1km shear around 20kts
is likely just not strong enough to support for tornadic activity.
However, these values will increase as evening approaches so any
additional storms which form ahead of the approaching MCS will have
a greater chance to spawn tornadoes. A look at the STJ hodograph for
this evening shows why. Impressive as is the MUCAPES of
3000-4000J/kg.
12Z ECMWF and HRRR appear to have best fit of evolution of the large
MCS and backbuilding convection now underway across northern NE.
Current radar trends and HRRR output surge the MCS southeast through
the north central and northeast CWA this evening while the
backbuilding convection over northern NE slides through northwest MO
and northeast KS with possibilities of reaching the KC Metro after
midnight. Current Flash Flood watch over northern MO looks on track.
Convection will finally exit the eastern CWA during the per-dawn
hours of Wednesday morning. A post-frontal cold front will trail and
eventually sweep through the CWA on Wednesday. The cold air
advection will lag allowing favorable mixing of the elevated warm layer
to mix down resulting in another very warm day. Could see highs
around 90 across the far southern CWA. Will keep slight chance PoPs
across this area as peak heating and some convergence along the
front could form isolated convection.
This front is not expected to move too far south of the CWA with the
very moist and unstable airmass poised to the south of the frontal
boundary. Models embed a number of weak shortwave troughs within
moderately strong westerlies crossing the Central Rockies and Central
Plains Wednesday night through Thursday night. In fact this pattern will
continue into the weekend. Elevated convection is the end result as
these shortwaves lift the unstable air above the boundary and
generate scattered convection. Could see a couple additional rounds of
convection. Temperatures will likely be a tad below average as we`ll
be under easterly flow from high pressure.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A quasi-zonal pattern will remain quite active through the end of
the extended forecast period. A number of shortwave troughs will
translate through the flow and will bring a few chances for heavy
rainfall through the beginning of the weekend. One round of precip will
develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday morning. Another
convective complex will develop Friday and continue into Saturday
with the potential for more heavy rainfall as models forecasting
precipitable water values of 1 to over 2 inches across the general region
With the Gulf wide open, do not see any issues with moisture return
during this period, however, exact timing of these systems still
remains in question.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Tricky TAF period with ongoing convection across NE, IA, and northern
MO which is progged by the hi-res HRRR model to drop southeastward
across NW Missouri down through east-central Missouri. This convection
appears to be following a warm frontal boundary. Isolated convection
developing near the terminals is currently moving northeastward
towards this front. As the cold pool continues to strengthen along
this warm front, the front may begin to sag southward and allow the
southwest end of the convective complex to near the terminals.
Confidence is low on how far south this complex will extend, thus
will monitor trends of the complex and amend as necessary. For now
have left mention of VCTS for the terminals for isolated activity.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ001>008-
015>017.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
Overall pattern has changed to a more progressive and unsettled
regime through the upcoming week. While there will no doubt be
periods when there will be no precipitation the proximity of a
couple frontal boundaries and the vagaries of the models further out
in time will make it difficult to go dry in most periods.
Short term concerns will focus on the evolution of upstream
convection over NE and KS and any severe threat over northwest MO. A
number of Hi Res models such as the HRRR and local WRF as well as
the latest NAM and GFS track the current developing NE MCS eastward.
At the same time activity blossoms southward towards central KS
where a strengthening southerly low-level jet feeds moderately
unstable air under an increasingly diffluent flow aloft. Too many
models favor this evolution to ignore. These models propagate the KS
convection southeast this evening which is supported by the Corfidi
vectors. As the the low level jet veers overnight it will maintain
the KS MCS as it moves into southwest MO. The convection in between
these two core MCSs will likely weaken as it moves into the western
CWA late this evening. The severe threat will be confined to
northwest MO this evening with an isolated severe wind gust
possible.
By sunrise the main portion of the convection is expected to be near
or have exited the eastern and southern counties. However, can`t
rule out scattered convection bubbling back up during the morning
and afternoon hours as the southwesterly low-level jet will enhance
convergence along any residual outflow boundaries as well as a weak
cold front entering the CWA. Temperatures will be problematic due to
any convection as well as residual cloud cover.
Monday night into Tuesday could see scattered convection pop-up
wherever the weak cold front stalls, which favors the southern
counties. Shortwave riding aloft spreads eastward across the Central
Plains on Tuesday allowing an elevated warm mixed layer to spread
east while the front retreats northeast as a warm front. As has been
noted for the last couple of days the combination of moderate to
strong shear coupled with strong instability and the added low-level
shear along/north of the warm front signal the increasing likelihood
of severe storms along and north of the warm front. Models have been
trending lifting the warm front further north over the past couple
of runs, pushing the convection and severe threat from northern MO
into IA.
Wednesday could see a trailing cold front settle south through the
CWA, but not before temperatures could reach 90 over the southern
half of the forecast area. This boundary will become the focus for
any additional rain chances. The GFS and ECMWF have settle this
front to near the MO/AR border by Thursday before it stalls.
Confidence has improved on this occurring and have started to lower
PoPs across at least northern MO for Thursday and Friday. Convective
chances increase as we head into next weekend as another moderately
strong upper trough sweeps through the Rockies and forces the front
north as a warm front, allowing rain chances to increase over the
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
The main line of thunderstorms has moved through the terminals
however the terminals will be affected by stratiform rain with an
ocnl lightning strike thru 07Z-08Z with vsbys being reduced to 5SM. GFS
MOS, GFS LAMP and to a lesser extend NAM MOS guidance cont to
indicate a period of MVFR cigs from 11Zthru most of the morning
hours. However, there is some concern that MVFR may not materialize
as not has developed upstream behind the stratiform rain and NAM BUFR
soundings has pulled back on MVFR cigs for this morning. Otherwise,
cigs should scatter out around 3kft by 16Z with a bkn mid lvl deck.
Winds will be out of the south around 10kts overnight while veering
to the southwest around 10kts by daybreak. By the afternoon, the
frontal boundary will move into the VC of the terminals and wind will
shift to the south btn 5-10kts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
932 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO
SKY COVER THIS MORNING GIVEN A STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IT BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO PUSHED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION A BIT
FURTHER EAST INTO PHILLIPS AND GARFIELD COUNTIES BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE DAY BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS MONTANA...FINALLY CHASING THE WEEKEND TROUGH OUT OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY.
BUT TODAY WILL SEE MILD CONDITIONS DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS IN EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL MOVE ON BY AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INSURE WIND GENERALLY REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. WIND IN THE EAST WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY
THE DEPARTING LOW...BEGINNING WITH NORTHWEST WIND OF AROUND
10-15KT THAT DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST
PART...CONVECTION PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN WEAK. SO CUT POPS BACK TO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
MONDAY NIGHT THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BACK UPPER FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO INTRODUCE MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDER. ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES VEER WITH HEIGHT. MODERATE BULK
SHEAR AND CAPE COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND AND
HAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN STORM STRENGTH
HOWEVER WILL FOCUS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHERE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE DIVIDE AND OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WETTING RAIN. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALSO INCREASE WIND...FIRST FROM THE SOUTHEAST...THEN
THE NORTHWEST. SCT
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A SHALLOW UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
OVERALL PATTERN IS DRIER AND COOLER FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT
GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND MODEST CYCLONIC FLOW SOME MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR WITH FUEL LOADING TRANSITIONING TO VFR.
SYNOPSIS: NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST 1-3 KFT STRATUS DECK STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN DOWN TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK UP OVER THE NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS REVEALING VFR SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO FEW
CUMULUS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS... BECOMING EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNSET. GAH
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE REMAINING KANSAS COUNTIES FROM THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND UPDATED THE FORECAST. CONTINUING TO
MONITOR THE APPROACHING LINE OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA...AS THEY APPEAR TO HAVE THE MOMENTUM GOING TO REACH AT
LEAST THE WESTERN BOUNDARIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HRRR SEEMS TO
BE DOING PRETTY WELL HANDLING THIS LINE OF STORMS THUS FAR...
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING THIS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AROUND 4-6Z...AND STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THIS MODEL
GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
STORM EVOLUTION BEHAVED PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
CONCENTRATING OVER KS ZONES AND LESS-SO NORTH OF THE STATE LINE.
HAVE ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO BE CANCELLED EARLY
FOR ALL 24 NEB COUNTIES...BUT WILL HANG ONTO 6 KS ZONES AT LEAST A
LITTLE BIT LONGER WITH ACTIVE STRONG STORMS IN THAT AREA...AND
SEVERE STORMS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
MAIN CHANGE IN FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS EVENING FROM EARLIER
THINKING IS THAT IT NOW APPEARS THAT NEW ROUND OF NORTHWEST NEB
CONVECTION MAY HAVE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF REACHING AT LEAST THE
WESTERN CWA BEFORE WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE BY THE TIME IT GETS
HERE...DECIDED IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO PUT IN A FEW HOURS OF
SLIGHT POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF AN ORD-ORLEANS LINE IN THE
WESTERN CWA FROM 9PM-MIDNIGHT. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL OBVIOUSLY BEAR CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO MAKE SURE IT DOESN/T PUSH INTO THE CWA ANY FARTHER OR
WITH MORE INTENSITY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES AREA...SHOULD IN
THEORY BE MOST FAVORED TO BE DONE WITH CONVECTION FOR THE NIGHT
PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF WESTERN NEB STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AS WAS QUITE WELL-ANTICIPATED...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE AT TIMES...HAVE BEEN ONGOING WITHIN MAINLY THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY
SLOWLY BUT SURELY EXPANDING MORE-SO INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE-CRITERIA REPORTS HAVE BEEN RATHER FEW SO
FAR...IN PART OWING TO A "MESS" OF STORM SCALE
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS DISRUPTING INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM MAINTAINING
OR REACHING PEAK POTENTIAL INTENSITY...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL NONETHELESS PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE TIME BEING...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL 30 COUNTIES THROUGH 10
PM...BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA IS ALREADY BEHIND THE MAIN...BACK
EDGE OF STORMS AND THE NORTHERN CWA APPEARS TO BE VERY WORKED OVER
BY COOLER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...SO WILL PROBABLY START TRIMMING
AWAY SOME OF THESE COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. RAINFALL-WISE...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES
BEYOND THE LIKELY BRIEF URBAN/STREET FLOODING TAKING PLACE IN
VARIOUS LOCATIONS...AND RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE
OVERESTIMATING REALITY BY AROUND ONE-THIRD BASED ON LIMITED
GROUND TRUTH. NONETHELESS...A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA HAS ALREADY
SEEN OR WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF 1-2 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ROUGHLY I-80 AND THE KS STATE
LINE.
TURNING TO THE METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION AS OF 20Z/3PM...THE MAIN
PLAYER IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS IS THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOCAL AREA
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ELEVATED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT AT THE 700MB LEVEL HAS BEEN FEEDING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF NEB/NORTHWEST KS ALL DAY...WHICH LED TO AT LEAST A
SLIGHTLY-EARLIER ONSET OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION...BUT ALSO LIKELY HELPED TO KEEP MUCH OF AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN CWA FROM REALIZING A MORE EXTENSIVE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. AT THE SURFACE...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT AN EXTENSIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD POOL
FROM THE WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS STILL IN QUESTION...ITS
STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE MUCH OF THE NEB CWA IS SEEING
A SLOWLY-WANING SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE NOTABLE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL ORGANIZED WIND THREAT MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 ALONG THE APPARENT SQUALL LINE THAT APPEARS TO BE
ORGANIZING ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS WILL
BE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...WHERE MUCH OF OUR KS ZONES ARE
CURRENTLY REALIZING 1000-2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE
PRESENCE OF GENERALLY 30-45KT OF 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
WOULD ALSO BE THE PART OF THE CWA STILL FAVORED FOR A POSSIBLE
BRIEF TORNADO THREAT...WHETHER IT BE WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE CELLS
THAT CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES FOR AWHILE...OR WITH POSSIBLE
NOTCHES/BRIEF SPIN UPS ALONG THE BACK-END TRAILING SQUALL LINE.
JUST CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THIS THREAT GIVEN AROUND 20KT OF
LOW-LEVEL 0-1KM SHEAR IN THE AREA.
AS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS EVENING...SEE
LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE WITH THE SOLUTION PRESENTED BY THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM MODELS...NAMELY THE 19Z HRRR. AS A RESULT...A GENERALLY
AT-MOST MARGINALLY SEVERE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS AND DEPART THE NORTHERN CWA...WHILE A HIGHER
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EITHER FROM
A CONTINUATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION...OR OTHER AT LEAST SEMI-
DISCRETE STORMS THAT MIGHT MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM JUST WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THAT ANY CONVECTION JUST NOW MOVING
INTO FAR NORTHWEST NEB DOES NOT SURVIVE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR
AREA...AREAS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LINES/CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE DONE WITH ALL CONVECTION FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...EVEN MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA
SHOULD SEE THE MAIN COVERAGE OF STORMS DEPART TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST GENERALLY DURING THE 8PM-10PM TIME FRAME. JUST IN CASE
SOME STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE
NORTHWARD INTERFACE OF THE LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BASED NEAR 850MB...LINGERED SOME SMALLER
POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES ALL THE WAY THROUGH 09Z...BUT
THIS MIGHT BE PLENTY GENEROUS. OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING PREVAILING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ONCE
THE WIND FIELD RECOVERS FROM CONVECTIVE-EFFECTS. NUDGED DOWN LOW
TEMPS SLIGHTLY...TONIGHT...RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTHWEST TO MID
60S FAR SOUTHEAST.
BRIEFLY TURNING TO THE MONDAY DAYTIME HOURS...THIS IS STILL ONE OF
THE ONLY FORECAST PERIODS TO STILL FEATURE NO MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK...AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREAD THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
THE NEXT ONE THAT TAKES AIM ON THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT
COULD STILL BE A CLOSE CALL AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY
AFTER...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE FOCUSED AT LEAST 1-2
COUNTIES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA MORE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY 10-15 MPH NORTHWEST
BREEZES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ASSUMING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS...AIMING FROM LOW-MID 80S NEB ZONES
AND MID-UPPER 80S KS ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
ALOFT: HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING HIGHS CONT TO DOMINATE THE HEMISPHERE
OVER THE BERING SEA AND FAR ERN CANADA. THE STAGNANT LONGWAVE
PATTERN BETWEEN OVER THE USA IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES THAT HAVE PUT
US BACK INTO THE PATH OF MORE ACTIVE WX. SPECIFICALLY...THE NEWLY
DEVELOPED RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN HEIGHTS AT OR
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WRN/CNTRL USA.
THE PAST THREE CYCLES OF EC/GFS/GEM/UKMET ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THRU TUE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROF. THE NEXT RIDGE ARRIVES WED FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROF WED NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER AK WILL BE FORCED SE AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY MID-WEEK
AND THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WILL SLOW IT DOWN WITH
HEIGHTS FALLING HERE. THAT MEANS A COOL DOWN AND PROBABLY THE
COOLEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE MID MAY.
SURFACE: THE TAIL END OF THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVES THRU TODAY WILL
LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL BE NEAR THE KS-NEB BORDER BY DAWN
TUE. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER CO...WITH A DRYLINE
INTENSIFYING AND MIXING INTO WRN KS...CREATING A TRIPLE POINT WITH
THE FRONT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK E ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER WED NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO THE REGION WED...WITH THE
FRONT SAGGING TO THE KS-OK BORDER. BY THU AN OCCLUDING LOW WILL BE
OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A WARM FRONT FCST TO LIFT THRU THE FCST
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ITS COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
THERE IS THEN SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST S AND E
OF THE FCST AREA.
HAZARDS: WE ARE LOOKING A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU-SAT. DID NOT LOOK
AT POTENTIAL INTENSITY DUE TO ON-GOING EVENT AND TUE POTENTIAL.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
TUE: PLEASE CONT TO FOLLOW SPC SEVERE WX OUTLOOKS AND THE HAZARDOUS
WX OUTLOOK /HWO/ AND THIS PRODUCT FOR WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE A SERIOUS
SEVERE WX THREAT. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO BE UPGRADED IN LATER SPC
OUTLOOKS.
LLJ-INDUCED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED COULD
INITIATE STORMS DURING THE MORNING HRS N OF THE WARM FRONT. IT
APPEARS STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THRU THE DAY AS
LLJ INTENSIFIES...PROBABLY FORMING AN MCS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
FORMING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EML. THE STORMS WILL REINFORCE THE
WARM FRONT AND BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE TSTMS SHOULD
ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE...WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT. WHILE SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MCS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE THE THREATS WITH THESE AFTERNOON STORMS.
USE OUR HIGH TEMPS OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH CAUTION. THEY WILL DEPEND
ON CLOUDS/RAIN. WE CURRENTLY HAVE 77-84F ALONG AND N OF I-80...BUT
MUCH OF THIS AREA COULD END UP JAMMED IN THE LOW-MID 70S. ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...HIGHS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. STOCKTON
AND PLAINVILLE WILL BE CLOSE TO 100F. WINDY S OF THE WARM FRONT!
09Z SREF CONTS TO LOOK THREATENING WITH MLCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG.
FALLING PRES TO THE W WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS BACKED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CURVATURE IN FCST HODOGRAPHS.
TUE NIGHT: ON-GOING TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE AND GROW INTO AN
MCS THAT PROPAGATES E WITH THE SFC LOW. SO TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END
HERE.
WED: BREEZY IN COOL AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD
DEVELOP OVER S-CNTRL NEB...MOST VIGOROUS N OF I-80. CANT RULE OUT A
SHWR OR A COUPLE SPRINKLES N OF HWY 92.
THU: COULD SEE A COULD SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CAP.
FRI: SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SAT: TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL. SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL CONTS.
SUN: PROBABLY DRY UNDER HIGH PRES. CONTINUED COMFORTABLY COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF HAZE OR FOG TOWARDS DAWN DUE TO THE CALM
WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER RAIN.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
828 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE CATSKILLS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
AREA IS SANDWICHED IN BTWN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF AXIS ALONG THE
HUDSON VLY AND A CDFNT TO THE WEST OF LK ERIE. THIS HAS LEAD TO A
JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DWPTS IN THE
60S, LEADING TO MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODIFIED 12Z RAOB OUT OF KBUF.
INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS DVLPD JUST AHEAD OF H7 WV AND IS PUSHING
THRU I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE PUSHING
EAST TAKING LKLY POPS WITH IT AND EXITING CWA AFT 22Z. ANOTHER AREA
OF STORMS HAS DVLPD ACRS WRN NY ALONG BNDRY AND LATEST HRRR HAS THIS
ENTERING WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTN, THUS HV MAINTAINED CHC POPS TO
ACCT FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN DVLP.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT WITH MOISTURE DRYING UP
QUICKLY BHND BNDRY. THUS WL KEEP ISOLD SHOWER MENTION IMMEDIATELY
ALONG CDFNT WITH CLRNG SKIES EXPECTED BHND.
DWPTS DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING FROPA, POSSIBLY INTO THE U40S ACRS
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. THIS WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP
DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES FOR THE OVRNGT, THO THEY MAY RUN A DEGREE OR
TWO ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. SKIES WL START OFF
AS MOSTLY SUNNY BUT WL BEGIN TO CLD UP AS NEXT WV HDS IN FM THE
MIDWEST. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 70S DRG THE DAY.
POPS INCREASE FM THE WEST BY 00Z WITH MEASURABLE PCPN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.
RAIN WL MV IN BTWN 00Z AND 03Z THURSDAY AND MAY BCM HVY AT TIMES.
SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST REGARDING HOW HIGH PW VALUES
MAY GET AND WHERE THE INFLOW WL FOCUS (IE WHERE THE LLJ WL LINE UP).
GFS SHUNTS THE LLJ FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE NAM NOSES IT UP INTO
THE SERN ZONES WHEREAS EURO KEEPS IT CONFINED CLOSER TO NY BIGHT. HV
INCLUDED LKLY POPS TO GNRLY SOUTH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND INCLUDED CHC FOR THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-84.
COOLER AIR WL BE PULLED IN ON NRLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. UL TROF WL
SWING THRU THE AREA DRG THE DAY WITH JUST SLGT CHC-CHC SHOWERS AS
UPR LVL COLD POOL ROTATES THRU. QUIET WX CONTS THRU THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FRIDAY MORNING UPPR LVL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS SCENARIO WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SAT WILL BE NICE AND DRY. SAT NIGHT
AN UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE WILL START TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NY SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND LAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE MID LVL THETA-E RIDGE WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING AND THE CHANCE TSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH... BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY. MONDAY NIGHT SFC RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY BEFORE A FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS DECREASING
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND AS WELL. RANGING IN UPPR 40S/LOW
50S SAT MORNING INCREASING TO THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY... PRIOR TO
THE FROPA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CHALLENGING FCST THIS EVENING AS SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. ONLY IMPACT AT AREA TERMINALS APPEARS TO
BE RME THIS EVENING AS A SMALL LINE OF SHWRS MOVE OVER THE AREA BY
2Z. ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION WHICH
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A NOTABLE
DECREASE IN CONVECTION.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...CONCERNS QUICKLY TURN TO RADIATIONAL
FOG POTENTIAL AT ELM AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. FOR
NOW...ADVERTISED AN IFR MENTION BEGINNING AT 7Z WITH CONDITIONS
POTENTIALLY FALLING BELOW ALTERNATE MIN THRESHOLDS. IT SHOULD BE
STRESSED HOWEVER THAT INCOMING DRIER AIR MAY DISRUPT FOG
FORMATION LATER ON...HENCE THE DIFFICULT FCST.
IN ANY EVENT...VFR RETURNS AREAWIDE AFTER 14Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...VFR.
THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
305 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
HAEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRON LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW FLOW HAS WRMD THE AREA NICELY THIS AFTN AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
TOCH 90F ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN NEAR SYR. SOME CONV HAS DVLPD OVER
XTRM WRN NY ALONG THE FRICTIONAL CONV BNDRY SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND
ARE MVG NE ATTM. OTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL ARM WEAKEN THE CONV AS IT
MVES EAST AND HAS LTL IN THE WAY OF SHWRS OVRNGT. NAM HOLDS CONV
TOGETHER BETTER AND HAS SOME WEAKENING CONV THRU MUCH OF THE NRN
THIRD OF THE AREA...LOW RESOLUTION GFS KIND SMEARS THE DEPICTION
OF THE CONV WHILE THE EURO GNRLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY.
WITH THE CONV ALREADY FIRING...DESPITE THE MODLE CONSENSUS HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...PRIMARILY OF THE NRN ZONES
TNGT IN CASE SOME OF THE CONV HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DRIFTS EAST AS
THE NAM SHOWS.
OTRW...A QUIET NGT WITH MODERATE TEMPS AND WINDS AHD OF THE APRCHG
FNTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS USUAL...NOT A CLR CUT FNTL PASSAGE WITH THE MODELS
CONCENTRATING MUCH OF THE CONV TMRW ALONG A PRE FNTL TROF PASSING
THRU THE AREA BEFORE 18Z. NAM IS ONCE AGAIN AN OUTLIER WITH A
SECOND LINE OF CONV DVLPG ALONG THE COLD FNT LTR IN THE DAY AND IN
THE EARLY EVE. NAM FCSTD SNDGS ARE INDEED QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES BETTER THAN 1500 J/KG. GFS AND EURO DO ALSO SHOW SOME AFNT
CONV AS THE UPR WV AND SFC FNT APRCHS...SO HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
THE LIKELY POPS WHERE THERE/S THE BEST CHANCE PCPN EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH THE TROF...BUT WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS THRU THE AFTN AND
INTO PART OF THE EVE TO CVR THE POSSIBILTY OF A SECOND ROUND OF
CONV.
NEXT WX SYSTEM ARRIVES THUR AND WHILE THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EURO AND
GFS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THE NAM OFFERS A MUCH DFRNT
SOLN. EURO/GFS SOLN KEEP AND OPEN WV ACROSS THE LAKES AND PUSH A
WEAKER CLSD SFC LOW ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WED...
CONCENTRATING SHWRS AND TSTMS ALONG THE OLD SFC OVER PA. NAM
CLOSES OFF THE UPR LOW AND WRAPS UP A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM OVER
THE SRN LAKES BRINGING THE CONV FURTHER NORTH. WILL LEAN TWRD THE
LESS DRAMATIC GFS/EURO AND KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA...HIER
IN THE SOUTH...FOR THE END OF THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RETURN TO DRY AND MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EXPECT WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FOR ALL INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BEAUTY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN WARMER
VALUES ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
BEYOND THIS...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST. FOR NOW...HAVE ADVERTISED CHC POPS BEGINNING MONDAY WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE STAGES OF NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT COOLER YET SEASONABLE TEMPS /LOW TO MID
70S/ THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HRS OF THE FCST
CYCLE AS UPPER RIDGING RETREATS TO THE EAST. FCST MODELS DO
DEVELOP CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER
OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINALS IS MUCH TO LOW AT
THIS POINT TO INCLUDE WITH CURRENT UPDATE. FOR NOW...ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER SHOULD EXIST ALOFT OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT MUCH VALLEY FOG
FORMATION.
BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED RAIN/STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER 14Z AS
PRECIP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE PREDOMINATE RA WITH A PROB30 GROUP
AT ALL SITES FOR THUNDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS
WILL BE CAPABLY OF SHORT DURATION MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 8-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.
FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
950 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AROUND 30 MPH
OVER EASTERN MONTANA. IF THIS LINE MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE
AND TRAJECTORY...IT SHOULD CROSS THE MT/ND BORDER RIGHT AT
MIDNIGHT CDT...OR 11 PM MDT. AS OF THIS WRITING...THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS LINE IS THE ONLY PART GENERATING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STORMS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
ARE BECOMING RIGHT-MOVERS AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...SHOULD
ARC INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER EXTREME WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 05Z...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHED POPS AFTER 07Z AS THE
LINE IS PROGGED TO LOSE STEAM AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO GET A SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WIND REPORT WITH THESE
STORMS. HIGHLIGHTED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINING
SOUTHWEST OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ARE KEEPING THE LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AT BEST.
THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WANE THIS
EVENING.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THE LATEST HRRR PROGS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
MT/ND BORDER. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
AT MAINTAINING THIS CONVECTION WHILE THE GFS/GEM ONLY INCREASE
POPS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING WEST. HOWEVER...CANNOT
IGNORE THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS COMPLETELY FIZZLING OUT THIS
CONVECTION WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT TRENDS AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. AS OF 2 PM CDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BEST INSTABILITY LIES ACROSS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE WITH LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT INDICATIVE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SO FAR
TODAY. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL HAIL CAPE ALSO A BIT MARGINAL. SO
CURRENT CONCERNS LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR THE
EVENING WHICH WILL BE A FRINGE AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER FAIRLY SHALLOW
AND MAINLY FORWARD MOVING MCS`S ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN 1 TO 3 HOURS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHOULD BE BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. CONTINUED COOL PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TYPICAL FOR JUNE CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH THE BELT OF WESTERLIES MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG TO SEVERE) WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DECENT INSTABILITY IS
DEPICTED BY GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR STILL LOOKS MINIMAL AT OR
BELOW 30KTS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.
A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA...WHILE WE REMAIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP A RISK OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING SO
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES
IF ANY.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ENDING PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S.
WE REMAIN COOL (HIGHS 65-75) AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KDIK-
KISN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST INTO KMOT-KBIS AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
622 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINING
SOUTHWEST OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ARE KEEPING THE LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AT BEST.
THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WANE THIS
EVENING.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THE LATEST HRRR PROGS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
MT/ND BORDER. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
AT MAINTAINING THIS CONVECTION WHILE THE GFS/GEM ONLY INCREASE
POPS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING WEST. HOWEVER...CANNOT
IGNORE THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS COMPLETELY FIZZLING OUT THIS
CONVECTION WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT TRENDS AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. AS OF 2 PM CDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BEST INSTABILITY LIES ACROSS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE WITH LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT INDICATIVE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SO FAR
TODAY. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL HAIL CAPE ALSO A BIT MARGINAL. SO
CURRENT CONCERNS LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR THE
EVENING WHICH WILL BE A FRINGE AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER FAIRLY SHALLOW
AND MAINLY FORWARD MOVING MCS`S ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN 1 TO 3 HOURS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHOULD BE BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. CONTINUED COOL PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TYPICAL FOR JUNE CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH THE BELT OF WESTERLIES MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG TO SEVERE) WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DECENT INSTABILITY IS
DEPICTED BY GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR STILL LOOKS MINIMAL AT OR
BELOW 30KTS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.
A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA...WHILE WE REMAIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP A RISK OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING SO
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES
IF ANY.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ENDING PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S.
WE REMAIN COOL (HIGHS 65-75) AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KDIK-
KISN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST INTO KMOT-KBIS AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
548 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
DID EXPAND THE FOG MENTION TO ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ITS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT SHOULD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
BECOME NECESSARY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER
50S ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
SKIES CLEAR...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THUS...WIDESPREAD SURFACE SATURATION IS EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 21 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO
SUPPORT THE FOG THREAT AT MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF
RECENT RAINFALL AND GREEN-UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
UPPER LOW IDENTIFIED ON 18Z/NAM MODEL OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW IN MINNESOTA WILL ALSO EXIT THE
REGION LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LARGE CLOUD
SHIELD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL SHRINK SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST WILL END BY SUNSET. AS
CLOUDS DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
INCREASES CENTRAL AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALREADY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY BRUSHING THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. FOR
TEMPERATURES IT WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
EXITING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE
DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A BREAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SET UP
WARMING AND INSTABILITY AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OFF AND ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MIGHT BRING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
IMPULSES REACHES NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN COOLING TO THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
MVFR/VFR STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A COOL...MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER
IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
341 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
UPPER LOW NEAR BEMIDJI AT MID AFTERNOON WITH SFC LOW NEAR HIBBING
MN. WRAPAROUND RAIN AREA OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW END OF THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FCST TO SEE SHOWERS TIL LATE
TONIGHT.
QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF CLEARING AND TEMPS AND IF ANY FOG
FORMS. RAP MODEL AVIATION FCSTS DO INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW
CLOUDS PSBL IN THE MINOT-DEVILS LAKE-JAMESTOWN REGION LATE TONIGHT
SO COORD WITH WFO BIS AND INSERTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN FAR WRN
FCST AREA. DO EXPECT CLEARING TO PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT REACHING THE RRV TOWARD 06Z AND THEN FAR EAST AROUND 12Z.
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER WITH SUNSHINE AND MIDDAY/AFTN
CUMULUS CLOUDS. WARMER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF RAIN
TO BYPASS OUR IMMEDIATE FCST AREA TO OUR SOUTH TUES AFTN-NIGHT
WITH RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SD/FAR SRN MN/IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WRN CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF A FRONT ENTERING
ERN ND WED AFTN AND THEN SPREADING EAST WED NIGHT. BRIEF BREAK
PSBL BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AFTN. MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUES TO LOOK WET
AND COOL. ALL MODELS START WITH A 500MB LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND ZONAL FLOW TO ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER LOTS OF DIFFERENCE AFTER
THIS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER WAVE FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HARD TO FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR TIME FRAME AND GO
DRY AS MODELS HAVE MARKED DIFFERENCES WITH THEIR PCPN FIELDS. THERE
WILL BE DRY PERIODS MIXED IN BUT WILL STICK WITH INHERITED BROAD
PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT. WITH THE WET AND CLOUDY PATTERN TEMPS WILL
STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE
AND HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PEG A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR THEM. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN BUT JUST A PERSISTENT STEADY LIGHT RAIN.
ALSO SEEING GUSTY NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY MID TO LATE EVENING OR SO.
WITH THE RECENT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS THINK THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
FOG AROUND SUNRISE BUT IT COULD DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING.
STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT CLEARING AND EXACTLY WHEN IT MAY OCCUR BUT
WILL SCATTER THINGS OUT TUESDAY MORNING AS A BEST FIRST GUESS. WINDS
WILL STAY PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH 18Z TUE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE DEFINITELY SHOWING AN UNSEASONABLE COOL
AND SHOWERY DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS
TO THE MID/UPPER 50S PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL...WITH LOWER TO
MID 60S SOUTHWEST. TRENDED THE SHOWERS DOWN SLOWLY. MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG AFTER LATE TONIGHT IN THE WET AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
RADAR LOOPS AND LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A PERSISTENT SHOWER
AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WITH H8
TEMPERATURE FIELD AS COOL AS IT IS...CURRENT THINKING IS THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER SO REMOVED THUNDER FOR
THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WENT A BIT COOLER SOUTH CENTRAL
TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
SHOWERS CONTINUE IN DEFORMATION ZONE FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND SLOWLY EXITING
LOW EXTENDS WEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA...SO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO START THE DAY. AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL EXTENDS SOUTH PAST GARRISON
WITH EVEN A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO BISMARCK.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR NOW EXTENDING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THINK THAT
BY THE TIME WE SEE A THREAT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE SHIFTED EVEN FARTHER EAST.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST REFLECTIVITY STILL SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EAST IN THE
DEVILS LAKE AREA AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG
THE SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SOME MODERATE SHOWERS IN
AND NORTH OF MINOT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SLOWLY
SLIDING THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY FALL OFF AFTER 18 UTC FROM WEST
TO EAST. CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS ALSO DIMINISHED TONIGHT AND DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF CHANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THUS HAVE KEPT THUNDER
CHANCES AT ISOLATED.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND MUCH
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN HAS MOST
LIKELY ALREADY FALLEN FROM THIS SYSTEM...NOT KNOWING THE FULL
EFFECTS OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND SMALL STREAMS IS STILL PRESENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE TUESDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
CLOSEST TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST SO WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE...AND
HOLDS OFF ON CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STRONGER BUT THE EARLIER WAVE WILL HELP CLEAR
OUT A LOT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS THE MOISTURE RECOVERY ON
THURSDAY LOOKS MEAGER IN THE WEST AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD.
WE REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH AND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OUR
SOUTH. COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT POSSIBLE
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS KEPT SOME SMALL
POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOW DEWPOINTS...THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
AT 17Z SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH A MOIST
CIRCULATION AROUND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BRINGING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR THIS EVENING. HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE
WIDESPREAD MVFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY TONIGHT.
INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AFTER 08Z KMOT-KBIS-KJMS BUT
KEPT VSBYS 3SM OR ABOVE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
948 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
RADAR LOOPS AND LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A PERSISTENT SHOWER
AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WITH H8
TEMPERATURE FIELD AS COOL AS IT IS...CURRENT THINKING IS THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER SO REMOVED THUNDER FOR
THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WENT A BIT COOLER SOUTH CENTRAL
TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
SHOWERS CONTINUE IN DEFORMATION ZONE FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND SLOWLY EXITING
LOW EXTENDS WEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA...SO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO START THE DAY. AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL EXTENDS SOUTH PAST GARRISON
WITH EVEN A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO BISMARCK.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR NOW EXTENDING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THINK THAT
BY THE TIME WE SEE A THREAT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE SHIFTED EVEN FARTHER EAST.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST REFLECTIVITY STILL SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EAST IN THE
DEVILS LAKE AREA AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG
THE SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SOME MODERATE SHOWERS IN
AND NORTH OF MINOT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SLOWLY
SLIDING THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY FALL OFF AFTER 18 UTC FROM WEST
TO EAST. CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS ALSO DIMINISHED TONIGHT AND DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF CHANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THUS HAVE KEPT THUNDER
CHANCES AT ISOLATED.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND MUCH
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN HAS MOST
LIKELY ALREADY FALLEN FROM THIS SYSTEM...NOT KNOWING THE FULL
EFFECTS OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND SMALL STREAMS IS STILL PRESENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE TUESDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
CLOSEST TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST SO WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE...AND
HOLDS OFF ON CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STRONGER BUT THE EARLIER WAVE WILL HELP CLEAR
OUT A LOT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS THE MOISTURE RECOVERY ON
THURSDAY LOOKS MEAGER IN THE WEST AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD.
WE REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH AND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OUR
SOUTH. COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT POSSIBLE
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS KEPT SOME SMALL
POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOW DEWPOINTS...THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
LOW STRATUS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS PROVIDING
MVFR OVER THE WEST AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CENTRAL THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS REMAIN NORTH AROUND KMOT AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT SITE KJMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE
LOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK APART FROM SOUTHWEST AT
KDIK AROUND 22 UTC MONDAY TO NORTHEAST FOR SITES KBIS AND
KISN...THEN KMOT AROUND 06 UTC TUESDAY. LOW CEILING CONDITIONS OF
LIFR TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND AT SITE KJMS THROUGH THE
12 UTC TAF CYCLE. TOMORROW NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG
FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
FAIRLY SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE AND AMPLE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN IN A FEW DAYS...SO A BLEND WILL BE UTILIZED.
FOR TODAY...PWATS REMAIN OVER 1 INCH FOR THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE EAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT...WITH MID LEVEL FGEN/Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEP OMEGA THROUGH 250 MB. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
DEFORMATION MODERATE RAIN BAND WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 TODAY. RAIN TOTALS COULD ADD UP TO AROUND 1
INCH...PERHAPS A BIT MORE LOCALLY IN SPOTS WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS MORNING CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN THE VALLEY. TEMPS WILL NOT WARM MUCH AT ALL FOR THE
NORTH...AND BE WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...THAT SHOULD ENHANCE OVERALL LARGER SCALE
ASCENT. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL CHANCE
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ALL AREAS. IT MAY
BECOME MORE RAIN LATER TODAY IN THE NORTH WHEN ALL INSTABILITY
WILL BE GONE...BUT STRONG LIFT COULD MEAN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
NEARLY ANYWHERE TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE EAST
BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA BY 12Z TUE.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
FOR WED...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
STORMS APPROACHING THE FAR W/NW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND SHOULD APPROACH 80 IN MOST AREAS.
ON WED NIGHT...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SHOWALTERS FALLING BELOW ZERO...PWATS
AROUND 1.25 INCHES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
A FLATTENED LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. FEW SHORT WAVES FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL MAKE
FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN. ECWMF WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE
GFS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF HAVE TRENDED FASTER
OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.
WILL TRIM BACK POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS NORTHWEST ON
FRI.
HIGH TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE ON THU AND GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
DEGREES LOWER ON FRI SAT AND SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE TREND WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES AND LOWERING CIGS.
USED THE RAP GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF THESE CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN IMPROVE MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1244 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR BURKE AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES TO EXPIRE
AT 06 UTC AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE EAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALSO UPDATED POPS TO BETTER
FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS THROUGH THE EVENING BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN
THREAT THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LANDSPOUT
TORNADOES ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANY TORNADOES THAT DO
DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. A VERTICALLY STACKED COLD
CORE LOW...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 1000 J/KG CAPE ARE
SUPPORTING VIGOROUS LOW TOP SUPERCELLS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS AND SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AND BECOMES ELEVATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
THE THE 19-22 UTC RAP/HRRR FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH
SLOW MOVING...REGENERATIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOURIS BASIN INTO THE UPPER
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...HAVE HAD
MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...GIVEN PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND 0-3 KM CAPE OF
100-125 J/KG. THE FUNNEL CLOUD/NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PORTIONS OF WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES RECEIVED 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS AND THROUGH EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT...LAW ENFORCEMENT...AND PUBLIC REPORTS...THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IN
BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...AND WARD COUNTIES WERE ONGOING SINCE SUNRISE
TODAY. REPORTS AND RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN IN PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES SINCE SUNRISE.
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT/WY TO EASTERN
COLORADO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE FLOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH DAKOTA WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE IMPULSES. IN ADDITION...A SLOW-MOVING IMPULSE REMAINED
OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA - ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUING
SHOWERS MENTIONED ABOVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WAS
CENTERED NEAR GARRISON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
TOWARDS HARVEY...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR JAMESTOWN.
THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THIS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ALSO DEPICT HEAVY
RAIN ALONG A LINE FROM MINOT/BOTTINEAU TO JAMESTOWN...ROUGHLY ALONG
OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE AN
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND THUS HAVE EXPANDED
THE FLOOD WATCH (IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THAT EXPIRES JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT) TO INCLUDE THIS AREA FROM MINOT/BOTTINEAU TO JAMESTOWN.
EXPANDED THIS PORTION SO THAT IT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS KEEP A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT IN THIS AREA ALL
NIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...AND ARRIVE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE SCATTERED/ISOLATED IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT LINGERING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
UNTIL SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON...WANING BY EVENING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF HAIL OR HIGH
WINDS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF FLOODING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE SHORTWAVE THEN TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SHORT WAVE
QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON WEDNESDAY. 12 UTC MODELS ALSO SHOW THE BROAD
TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES
THURSDAY AND PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. WITH THE
SHORT WAVE RIDING UP THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY MODELS AGREEMENT IS GOOD
IN BRINGING A SURFACE LOW INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN PUSHING THE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE 12 UTC GEM-NHEM AND ECMWF START CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 12 UTC GFS HOLDS OFF
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OF WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...HOWEVER THE LATEST 12 UTC
ECMWF SPED THE SYSTEM UP. IF THE ECMWF AND GEM NHEM SOLUTION IS HOW
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS THERE
WILL LITTLE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE THE GREATEST ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL
BE AROUND 3000 J/KG IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND JUST WEST
ACCORDING TO THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER
SHEER. WITH THAT SAID WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT
FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED AT KJMS...KISN AND KMOT. MVFR STRATUS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KBIS AND KDIK.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST...KDIK TO NORTHEAST...KMOT
AFTER 22 UTC MONDAY AS CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-004-011-012-
021>023-036-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MCS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA HAS COMPLETELY ROBBED THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM OF MOISTURE. RADAR IMAGERY OF THE RETURNS THAT
WHERE MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...THE
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE.
THUS...WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WITH THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE IN THE AREA LIKELY STALLING. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DID INCREASE
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS HERE.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE LIMITED
FORCING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA IS LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND SHOULD WEAKEN OR
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. FORCING AGAIN STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNRISE ON
MONDAY...ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA (AND NO CHANGES TO POPS/WX WILL BE
MADE AFTER 12Z MON).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL. GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLING TO LATCH
ONTO ONE SOLUTION UNDER COMPLEX SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SET-UP...BUT
LATEST RAP/HRRR/LOCAL WRF STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIMILARITIES AND
WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SOLAR.
SFC LOW CENTER STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST NE/
SOUTHEAST SD WITHIN BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SD WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WRAP AROUND SFC LOW IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY JUST CLIP THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH
MUCH OF MN LAKES COUNTRY RECENTLY RECEIVING 2 TO 6 INCHES...WILL
KEEP FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO CANCEL IF
CONVECTION TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO SET-UP SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE MINOT TO BISMARCK AND DEVILS LAKE TO JAMESTOWN CORRIDOR.
STRONG RISING MOTION THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DUE TO MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLET AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW-MOVING BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO DO NOT THINK AN EXTENSION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH IS NECESSARY. LATE TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL AND WET AS SHOWERS SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
AND EAST WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD/WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S
WITH THE LAST OF THE RAIN EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SOME FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS PACIFIC STORMS MOVE
EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES GIVING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS AMONG
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE PRETTY CLOSE BUT JUST OFF ENOUGH SO THAT WE HAVE
CHANCE OF PRECIP EVER DAY THU-SAT. AT THIS POINT HARD TO PICK OUT
A MODEL OF CHOICE SO WILL UTILIZE THE BLEND TOOL. TEMPS LOOK TO
RUN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE TREND WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES AND LOWERING CIGS.
USED THE RAP GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF THESE CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN IMPROVE MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SE INTO PORTIONS OF
NW OK OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY IMPACTING BVO/TUL/RVS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. CEILINGS WILL RISE
QUICKLY BEHIND THE MAIN LINE WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. A
LIMITED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY MCS DECAYS THIS MORNING AND ANY
REMNANT BOUNDARIES REMAINING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LIGHTNING ACTION AND COLD TOPS FROM SATELLITE
IN KANSAS CONVECTIVE LINE SHIFTING TO SOUTH-
WEST PORTION OF THE LINE. HOW MUCH OF MCS AND
HOW FAR PRECIP PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
STILL IN QUESTION. HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT HRRR
AND LOOKING UPSTREAM FEEL CONFIDENT RAISING
POP FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF I44. SEVERE THREAT
ABOUT SPENT BEFORE REACHING TSA CWA OVERNIGHT.
GW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A MCS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY IN
THE BVO/TUL/RVS AREAS WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS DECAYING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS ADVANCING
ACROSS KS AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE AND
THEN SLIDE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN OK. THE
LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAVE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT IDEAS AS TO
HOW THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE UKMET KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE BORDER.
BASED ON SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THE DATA...WILL ELECT TO
MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS INSTEAD OF LIKELY POPS. NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED
BY WEAKER INSTABILITY OWING TO THE TIME OF DAY.
MID LEVEL TEMPS AND HEIGHTS RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS
SPREADS UP INTO OUR AREA. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...THE WEATHER
LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED WITH MCS ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.
LACY
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND WILL USHER IN MUCH MORE
HUMID AIR. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO MID-WEEK...KEEPING IT UNSETTLED WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN BOUNDARY BETWEEN WARM AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SEASONABLE AIR WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS IN THE SW ARE RATHER INNOCUOUS AND SLATED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY THE RUC AND HRRRRRRR OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TEMPS. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE EAST AND WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
TEMPS AT OR BELOW 80F EVERYWHERE. M70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVS IN
THE NORTH MAY BE THE LOWEST OF HIGHS THIS AFTN.
830 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS MOVING INTO SWRN COS ARRIVING 1-2 HRS AHEAD OF SCHD. WILL
BUMP POPS UP THERE...AND CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER EVEN THOUGH
LATEST LTG TREND IS DOWNWARD. HEATING MAY ADD ENUF TO LLVL LAPSE
RATES.
PREV...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSING CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WITH DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE OH/PA BORDER ON FRESHENING
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AROUND SW TO NE ORIENTED MID ATLANTIC SFC
RIDGE. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS AND FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EAST OF OHIO
VALLEY 850 MB LLJ.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY AT LEAST WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER
80S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER AND DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES TO OVER
1.5" PW THIS EVENING...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD...BUT IT MAY STILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SPROUT ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
CAPPING WARM AIR ALOFT. CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS THE WEST
TO SUPPORT MID CHC POPS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO INCREASE POPS FARTHER EAST ON
TUESDAY...AS WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL PA AND
SHEARING UPPER TROF SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
IMPRESSIVE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +16C SHOULD SPELL OUT
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH...WITH NORTHERN AREAS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIDWEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH DEWPOINTS HIGH ENOUGH TO
MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FADE BACK
TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
NARROW RIDGE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL GIVE WAY TO
A LOW SLOWLY SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MIDWEEK
AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS IN FROM THE WEST. SCT ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND COLD
FRONT BECOMES ALIGNED MORE W-E AND STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
MASON/DIXON LINE. AS WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE W-E FLOW...RENMANTS
OF AN MCS OFF TO OUR WEST MAY PLAY A FACTOR IN FOCUSING TSTM
ACTIVITY ON WED - AND SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION CENTRAL PA IN THE
DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
FRONT LINGERS AROUND THE MASON/DIXON LINE THU INTO FRI /WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT POSITIONING/...KEEPING MENTION OF SCT TSTMS
GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH. THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER NORTHERN PA...TRACK OF CLOSED UPPER LOW UP THE ST
LAWRENCE SEAWAY WILL KEEP MENTION OF POSS INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...BUT OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER TENN/OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO REORGANIZE AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND - AGAIN INCREASING
OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING A MORE HUMID SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. STABILITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTN AND ALLOW FOR SCT
CONVECTION/SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER IN THE N/W. MVFR CIGS IN THE
WEST MAY RISE A BIT THIS AFTN AS MIXING GETS DEEPER...BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO IT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. REDUCTIONS IN VIS FROM SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM KAOO AND KUNV WESTWARD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TOWARDS SUNSET...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIGS AND VSBYS
REDUCING TO MVFR OR LOWER AT BFD AFTER 06Z.
EXPECT REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU...SHRA/VSBY REDUCTIONS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
107 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING AND LOWERED POPS AND TEMPS. A
LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS MOVING DOWN OUT OF ND THIS MORNING
AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP ANY
DAYTIME HEATING IN CHECK THIS MORNING. THEN WITH CAA THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST WILL JUST NOT BE ABLE
TO CATCH UP. SO DROPPED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S. PRECIP ON THE
OTHER HAND IS GETTING HUNG UP IN ND. THE HRRR DOES NOT HAVE ANY
PRECIP ENTERING THE NORTHEAST UNTIL AROUND 18Z SO ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS PASSED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA
THROUGH THE DAY AS AREA WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW. A FEW WIDELY
SCT THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
AS AREA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER THAN
RECENT DAYS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH ALREADY BEGINS
TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST CWA ON TUESDAY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW AND SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 12 AND ESPECIALLY GOOD SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212. ALTHOUGH
0-6KM SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE OVER SOUTHERN SD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...MLCAPE VALUES ARE VERY LOW WITH ALL THE INSTABILITY
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...CLOSER TO THE SFC WARM
FRONT. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SVR POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
BREAK IN THE ACTION MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BOUNDARY THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...KEEPING THE CWA IN A
PRIME AREA FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. CANNOT REALLY RULE OUT
ANY TIME PERIOD THAT WILL BE DRY...SO WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND POPS...WHICH KEEP SCHC/CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S THURSDAY GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
A STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OFF TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
SCATTERING OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THE EDGES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS
ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS
FOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AND THE STRATUS
DECK TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
STATUS SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND SKIES NEVER CLEAR. IF THE FORECAST
GOES AS PLANNED AND SKIES CLEAR...FOG IS ALSO A CONSIDERATION.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THESE DETAILS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE NEXT PLANNED
FORECAST.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SERR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
844 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING AND LOWERED POPS AND TEMPS. A
LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS MOVING DOWN OUT OF ND THIS MORNING
AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP ANY
DAYTIME HEATING IN CHECK THIS MORNING. THEN WITH CAA THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST WILL JUST NOT BE ABLE
TO CATCH UP. SO DROPPED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S. PRECIP ON THE
OTHER HAND IS GETTING HUNG UP IN ND. THE HRRR DOES NOT HAVE ANY
PRECIP ENTERING THE NORTHEAST UNTIL AROUND 18Z SO ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS PASSED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA
THROUGH THE DAY AS AREA WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW. A FEW WIDELY
SCT THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
AS AREA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER THAN
RECENT DAYS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH ALREADY BEGINS
TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST CWA ON TUESDAY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW AND SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 12 AND ESPECIALLY GOOD SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212. ALTHOUGH
0-6KM SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE OVER SOUTHERN SD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...MLCAPE VALUES ARE VERY LOW WITH ALL THE INSTABILITY
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...CLOSER TO THE SFC WARM
FRONT. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SVR POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
BREAK IN THE ACTION MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BOUNDARY THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...KEEPING THE CWA IN A
PRIME AREA FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. CANNOT REALLY RULE OUT
ANY TIME PERIOD THAT WILL BE DRY...SO WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND POPS...WHICH KEEP SCHC/CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S THURSDAY GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL DROP MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN DOMINATING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID MORNING...THEN WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
337 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTHEAST WITH HEATING. BAND OF MODESTLY
UNSTABLE AIR SWINGING THROUGH THIS AREA AROUND RECEDING LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHEAST SEEMS TO WEAK GIVEN THE FLOW AND DRIER AIR TO
PRODUCE SPOTTY SHOWERS. AS FOR THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY...THEY SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO MARGINALLY WINDY
CATEGORY...BUT WILL GET NOWHERE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...THAT IS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 70S
TO LOW 80S...BUT THE CONTINUED MODEST DRYING WILL MAKE IT FEEL
PLEASANT OUTDOORS.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AREA WIDE. LATE TONIGHT
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAR SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY
FURTHER EAST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
INCREASE TO MENTION SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 12Z/7 AM
TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY MORE HEAVY RAIN. A STRONG 100 KNOT RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND ALMOST HINTS AT A BIT OF COUPLING WITH AN INCOMING
80 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET INTO NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN BOTTLED UP JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...ESPECIALLY THE TORNADO THREAT...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL SEE A THREAT OF POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND MAYBE A LITTLE WIND AND IF THE MODELS ARE TOO
FAR SOUTH BY 50 MILES OR SO WITH THE BOUNDARY THAT WOULD PLACE THE
AREA IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT...SO DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THIS. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWAT
VALUES LIKELY 1.50 INCHES OR MORE. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH POPS AND
INCREASE THEM A BIT FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS IT SEEMS LIKE IT SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO MISS OUT ON THE RAINFALL.
ON TUESDAY MORNING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND
MAX MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WESTERN CWA. THIS COULD ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND BRING A
SMALL DECREASE IN HEATING WHICH WOULD AFFECT LOW LEVEL WARMING AND
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FORCING MAY BE SO STRONG AND SO
WELL IN LINE WITH THE INCOMING STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT THE
800MB TO 700MB LAYER COULD BE VERY ACTIVE WITHOUT MUCH OF A THREAT
OF THE SURFACE TO 925MB POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH
DIVERTING FLOW AND ROBBING US OF GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING. THE NAM ELEVATED RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING LOOK TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AS WELL SO IF
SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE 925MB TO 850MB LAYER CAN DEVELOP IT MAY END
UP TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
BY WEDNESDAY EVEN IN A WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS POTENT...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
REAL HIGH ON THIS RIGHT NOW. A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE BOTH DAYS
WITH MAINLY 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME 80S
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAYBE SLOWING DOWN A BIT TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST THE LATTER PART. WITH FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE VERY HARD TO COME BY. SO WILL MAINTAIN
A LOT OF MID LEVEL POPS THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH POPS DECREASING
SOME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CURRENTLY SEEING SOME MVFR TO IFR STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG FORM
TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE DRY AIR
ADVECTING IN WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW...AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS OR FOG...SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON MENTIONING IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TOMORROW OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST...GUSTING
20 TO 30 KTS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
246 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK SO FAR. CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST HAS ALSO KEPT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING FROM WEST TN/WEST
KY...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO
AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW POPS SPREADING EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY RESULTING
IN LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE...BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO RETURN WELL INTO THE 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
MID STATE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEGLIGIBLE AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S PLATEAU AND
LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY AS A 60 KT 500 MB JET PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ALL SUGGEST THIS WILL DRIVE AN MCS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE KY BORDER
NORTHWARD...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN OUR AREA
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MID STATE IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES BOTH
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 69 87 70 91 / 30 30 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 68 86 68 90 / 50 30 20 10
CROSSVILLE 63 82 63 85 / 20 30 20 10
COLUMBIA 69 86 70 91 / 30 30 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 68 86 68 90 / 30 40 20 10
WAVERLY 69 86 68 91 / 50 30 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
938 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM PENNSYLVANIA...WESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES EAST ALONG THE FRONT...
THUNDERSTORMS ERRUPTING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND MOVING
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
ARE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. MESO-SCALE MODELS HINT THAT
REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN FAR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. CURRENT
TRAJECTORIES ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AS OF 640 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN REGIONS OF
PRECIPITATION. A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS EXITED THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...WE ARE WATCHING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. IT WILL BE
A RACE BETWEEN SUNSET AND ARRIVAL TIME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
19Z/3PM RUN OF THE HRRR GUIDANCE IS LINING UP A LITTLE BETTER WITH
THIS CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO THE 18Z/2PM RUN OF THE RNK-WRF.
HAVE LEANED A BIT HEAVIER ON THE FORMER FOR THE POP/WX UPDATE
HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MOVED TROUGH THE AREA
EARLIER TODAY...A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SO THAT MANY AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
REALIZING THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPS/TDS TO REFLECT THIS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES A
BIT MILDER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL.
AS OF 400 PM TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONT ALOFT WHICH CROSSED THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY RESULTED IS SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MAINLY TRACE PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE OBSERVED...
UPWARDS OF A FEW HUNDRETHS AT MOST. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE
CWA...SO EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS CLEARED THE CWA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS STILL POSITIONED UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...
EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND IL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT INTO THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA...MAINLY WV AND FAR WRN VA...TOWARD OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHATEVER ACTIVITY DOES MANAGE TO GET HERE SHOULD
BE IN A WEAKENING STATE.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF THE VA HIGHLANDS
INTO WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT.
AREAS WHICH MANAGED TO GET A FEW HUNDRETHS OF PRECIP TUESDAY MAY
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
A VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE MID WEST. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD
BOOST OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAIN FOCUS WILL BE A MORE ORGANIZED MCS
WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX
WITH MOST LIKELY TIMING OF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY OPTIMUM TIMING FOR SEVERE. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE AMONG MODELS AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF AN MCS WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
OH VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OR EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. SPC
MAINTAINING AN ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK FOR THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING INTO
OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z THU. SOME SEVERE WX PARAMETERS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING AN MCS OR SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LIMITED DUE
PARTLY TO THE PASSAGE AT NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING. MAINTAINED LIKELY
OR HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW MUCH THE OH VALLEY MCS
ACTUALLY HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND AT NIGHT. A
LOCAL STUDY OF OVER 50 MOUNTAIN CROSSING MESOSCALE SYSTEMS HAS SHOWN
THAT THE CHANCE OF SUCCESSFUL (I.E. REMAINING SEVERE) PASSAGE IS
CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED AT NIGHT OWING PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. BUT THAT IS NOT IN ITSELF A CONCLUSIVE FACTOR.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THURSDAY MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EITHER WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE WESTERLY
AND FALLING DEWPOINTS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
TOWARD THE COAST WHERE WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY TO RECOVER. THIS IS DEPICTED BY DAY 3 SEVERE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC. PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO FALL VICTIM TO THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MCS WITH HEAVIEST RAIN ALSO EXEPCTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON IN THE OH
VALLEY. ENOUGH ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN WITH DECAYING MCS FOR UP TO A
HALF-INCH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OR SO IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA OF COURSE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS MAY SEE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
PUSHING EAST AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND MILD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY JUN CLIMO..UPPER 70S
FAR WEST AND MID-80S EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
WILL LIFT NORTH PULLING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AGAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT TUESDAY..
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY APPROACHING A KCRW-KEKN
LINE WILL CONTINUE HEADING SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
START OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...WE
ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED KLWB TO POSSIBLY IMPACTED BY THIS
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH VCTS IN THE WX GROUP OF THE TAF FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WE EXPECT POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOLLOWS AN UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY INTO THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE
REGION THAT EXPERIENCED SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR LIGHT FOG BY MORNING...WITH SOME POCKETS OF
IFR.
ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY
12-14Z/8AM-10AM WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK SOUTHWEST AND
ALLOW FOR INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGHOUT A DEEPER AMOUNT OF THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STALLING...OR
INCHING NORTH A BIT AS A WARM FRONT. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL
BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF SHRA/TSRA...AND FOG IS LIKELY
EACH MORNING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS AND WHEREVER THERE WAS
RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 935 PM EDT TUESDAY...
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LYNCHBURG ASOS ARE TRANSMITTING CORRECTLY
NOW.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...DS/MBS
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
739 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM PENNSYLVANIA...WESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES EAST ALONG THE FRONT...
THUNDERSTORMS ERRUPTING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND MOVING
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN REGIONS OF
PRECIPITATION. A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS EXITED THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...WE ARE WATCHING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. IT WILL BE
A RACE BETWEEN SUNSET AND ARRIVAL TIME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
19Z/3PM RUN OF THE HRRR GUIDANCE IS LINING UP A LITTLE BETTER WITH
THIS CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO THE 18Z/2PM RUN OF THE RNK-WRF.
HAVE LEANED A BIT HEAVIER ON THE FORMER FOR THE POP/WX UPDATE
HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MOVED TROUGH THE AREA
EARLIER TODAY...A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SO THAT MANY AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
REALIZING THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPS/TDS TO REFLECT THIS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES A
BIT MILDER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL.
AS OF 400 PM TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONT ALOFT WHICH CROSSED THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY RESULTED IS SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MAINLY TRACE PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE OBSERVED...
UPWARDS OF A FEW HUNDRETHS AT MOST. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE
CWA...SO EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS CLEARED THE CWA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS STILL POSITIONED UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...
EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND IL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT INTO THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA...MAINLY WV AND FAR WRN VA...TOWARD OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHATEVER ACTIVITY DOES MANAGE TO GET HERE SHOULD
BE IN A WEAKENING STATE.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF THE VA HIGHLANDS
INTO WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT.
AREAS WHICH MANAGED TO GET A FEW HUNDRETHS OF PRECIP TUESDAY MAY
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
A VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE MID WEST. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD
BOOST OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAIN FOCUS WILL BE A MORE ORGANIZED MCS
WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX
WITH MOST LIKELY TIMING OF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY OPTIMUM TIMING FOR SEVERE. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE AMONG MODELS AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF AN MCS WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
OH VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OR EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. SPC
MAINTAINING AN ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK FOR THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING INTO
OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z THU. SOME SEVERE WX PARAMETERS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING AN MCS OR SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LIMITED DUE
PARTLY TO THE PASSAGE AT NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING. MAINTAINED LIKELY
OR HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW MUCH THE OH VALLEY MCS
ACTUALLY HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND AT NIGHT. A
LOCAL STUDY OF OVER 50 MOUNTAIN CROSSING MESOSCALE SYSTEMS HAS SHOWN
THAT THE CHANCE OF SUCCESSFUL (I.E. REMAINING SEVERE) PASSAGE IS
CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED AT NIGHT OWING PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. BUT THAT IS NOT IN ITSELF A CONCLUSIVE FACTOR.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THURSDAY MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EITHER WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE WESTERLY
AND FALLING DEWPOINTS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
TOWARD THE COAST WHERE WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY TO RECOVER. THIS IS DEPICTED BY DAY 3 SEVERE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC. PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO FALL VICTIM TO THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MCS WITH HEAVIEST RAIN ALSO EXEPCTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON IN THE OH
VALLEY. ENOUGH ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN WITH DECAYING MCS FOR UP TO A
HALF-INCH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OR SO IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA OF COURSE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS MAY SEE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
PUSHING EAST AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND MILD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY JUN CLIMO..UPPER 70S
FAR WEST AND MID-80S EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
WILL LIFT NORTH PULLING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AGAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT TUESDAY..
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY APPROACHING A KCRW-KEKN
LINE WILL CONTINUE HEADING SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
START OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...WE
ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED KLWB TO POSSIBLY IMPACTED BY THIS
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH VCTS IN THE WX GROUP OF THE TAF FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WE EXPECT POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOLLOWS AN UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY INTO THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE
REGION THAT EXPERIENCED SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR LIGHT FOG BY MORNING...WITH SOME POCKETS OF
IFR.
ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY
12-14Z/8AM-10AM WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK SOUTHWEST AND
ALLOW FOR INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGHOUT A DEEPER AMOUNT OF THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STALLING...OR
INCHING NORTH A BIT AS A WARM FRONT. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL
BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF SHRA/TSRA...AND FOG IS LIKELY
EACH MORNING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS AND WHEREVER THERE WAS
RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...
WHILE OBSERVATIONS ARE AGAIN BEING DISSIMINATED FROM THE LYNCHBURG
ASOS...THE REPAIRS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL NOT COMPLETE GIVEN SOME
CHARACTERS ARE MISSING WITHIN THE OBSERVATION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...DS/MBS
EQUIPMENT...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
849 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AT 01Z...SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND NEB
CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE SYNOPTICS SOUTHWARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH WITH THE COLD POOL AND IS NOW ALONG THE MO/IA
BORDER RUNNING DUE WEST INTO NEB. FRONTOGENESIS BAND SHIFTS IN
OVERNIGHT FROM SERN SD AND SWRN MN. THIS IS THE FORCING THAT IS
CAUSING THE RAIN ON RADARS OVER THAT AREA NOW...IN COMBINATIONWITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DYNAMICS ALOFT /QVECTOR CONVERGENCE/.
HOWEVER...THE TREND IN THE 06-12Z FRONTOGENETIC BAND HAS BEEN
REALLY SHIFTING SOUTH IN THE LATEST RAP RUNS. THE 04.18Z RAP
FORECAST PLACED THE 600MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND OVER I-90...AND THE
04.23Z RAP HAS THE BAND FROM MASON CITY IA TO SOUTH OF MADISON WI.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH DEEPENING COLD LOW-LEVELS TO THE SOUTH DUE
TO CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LIFT...BUT LOWER LEVEL
LIFT IS WORKING FURTHER SOUTH.
ENORMOUS STRATIFORM RAIN REGION ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA NORTH OF THE
SEVERE CONVECTION IS ALSO CAUSING PROBLEMS FOR GETTING ANY
INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH IN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT ABOVE THE
FRONTOGENETIC AREA PER RAP SOPUNDINGS FOR LATER TONIGHT SUGGESTS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDER CLAP MAY OCCUR /7C PER KM FROM
500-300 MB/. WILL LEAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND KEEP IT MAINLY
NERN IA AND SWRN WI.
BOTTOM LINE WAS TO TRIM THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RAIN CHANCE
SHIELD DRYING OUT THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN. KEPT NERN IA AND SWRN WI WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES
AS PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTAINED. COULD GET SOME SPRINKLES IN THE
I-90 CORRIDOR FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT AS IT SHIFTS OVER
TOWARD SUNRISE. VERY MINOR THUNDER CHANCES HAVE REMAINED IN THE
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER TAKES PLACE TO OUR SOUTH.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC AND THE GREAT LAKES...WITH BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ON THE TOP OF THIS
RIDGE...SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND IN NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. DPVA FROM THESE TWO SHORTWAVES...COMBINED WITH STRONG
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI WHERE MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXISTS PER RAP ANALYSIS...HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DRY CONDITIONS EXIST DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. SOME CIRRUS HAS
BEEN STREAMING IN AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF...AS WELL AS
FROM A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE EQUATORIAL REGION
OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. MASSIVE DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
EXISTS PER GOES DERIVED IMAGERY...DEPICTING 0.6-0.7 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TO 1.4-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA.
REGARDING AIRMASS WARMTH...A BIG DIFFERENCE EXISTS HERE TOO. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWED 925MB TEMPS OF AROUND 16C OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TO 24-30C IN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
CONGEALING INTO A BOWING MCS THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN IOWA. IN
FACT...THE SMALL BOW TRAVERSING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD END UP
BEING THE BOWING MCS. THIS IS VERY WELL AGREED UPON BY BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. FROM THIS POINT...THERE
REMAINS A SPLIT AMONGST SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...
PRIMARILY THE 03.12Z NAM AND 03.09Z SREF WHICH TAKE A FARTHER NORTH
TRACK COMPARED TO THE 03.12Z GFS/ECMWF AND MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE DEALING WITH A BOWING MCS...THE
FORECAST MOTION IS DETERMINED BY CORFIDI VECTORS...AND IN THIS CASE
THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS ARE MORE APPROPRIATE.
THESE VECTORS POINTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUGGEST A TRACK THROUGH
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL...THUS FAVORING THE MORE SOUTHERN
MODELS. THE 03.12Z HI RES ARW AT THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE CONVECTION NOW THE BEST AND ALSO TAKES EVEN MORE OF A SOUTHERN
TRACK.
NOW ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT IS LIKELY TO DROP TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT...THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS FOR A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND TO CROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-90. ALONG WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS
BAND...A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KT JET STREAK AT THE
TROPOPAUSE CROSSING WISCONSIN SHOULD HELP PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SOUTH OF I-90. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT SOUTH OF I-90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS
SUGGEST CLOUD BASES COULD BE ROOTED AT 10000 FT...WHICH MAY TEND TO
LIMIT SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY...INSTABILITY IS
FAIRLY MEAGER ABOVE 10000 FT...THUS LIGHTNING MAY BE ISOLATED AT
BEST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE GONE AFTER 12Z PER 03.12Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SOME HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA PER GFS/ECMWF. DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY
MILD. GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 50S LOOK REASONABLE. ON WEDNESDAY...
INITIAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A
BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. STILL...925MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO 16-18C BY 00Z SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...
1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP.
ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 0.5
INCH OR LESS. THERE ARE SOME ISSUES WITH HOW COLD WE GET...
ESPECIALLY AT OUR COLD SITES WHERE AT SPARTA WI THE MAV IS 36
COMPARED TO 45 OFF THE MET. THE DIFFERENCE IS TIED TO THE SPEED OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SPREADING CLOUDS
TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE 03.12Z NAM BRINGS PRECIPITABLE
WATER BACK UP TOWARDS 1 INCH AT 12Z...REFLECTIVE OF THESE CLOUDS.
FOR NOW HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE MAV AS THE NAM SCENARIO APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER AMONGST MOST GUIDANCE. FOR NOW LEFT OUT A FROST
MENTION SINCE DID NOT GO 100 PERCENT COLD AS THE MAV...BUT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR CENTRAL WI IN LATER FORECASTS.
2. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS A RESULT OF BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN ANY OTHER MODEL.
ALL OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE LEANED THAT WAY.
3. THE WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION. ONE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY...AND A SECOND BEING A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH MN AND WI ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW THESE TWO INTERACT...PRIMARILY WITH
THE 03.00Z/03.12Z ECMWF RUNS MUCH MORE BULLISH SPREADING SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...COMPARED TO THE 03.12Z
GFS/CANADIAN WHICH ARE DRIER. FOR NOW FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS AND
GIVEN THE GENERALLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF...KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UP IN THE 30-60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE CONCERNS STILL SEEM MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A TREND
FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT QUICKER FOR SUNDAY...THUS HAVE LOWER
CHANCES BETWEEN 20-30 THEN. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 8C.
4. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY INCREASES...BUT
THERE IS A GENERAL IDEA FOR RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. EXACT TIMING VARIES...BUT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY
FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
WEEK...THUS THE WARNING CONTINUES THERE.
REGARDING THE TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI...THE ONLY OTHER FLOOD
WARNINGS THAT WERE PRESENT WERE ALONG THE KICKAPOO AND THESE HAVE
NOW BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
751 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER TAKES PLACE TO OUR SOUTH.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC AND THE GREAT LAKES...WITH BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ON THE TOP OF THIS
RIDGE...SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND IN NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. DPVA FROM THESE TWO SHORTWAVES...COMBINED WITH STRONG
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI WHERE MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXISTS PER RAP ANALYSIS...HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DRY CONDITIONS EXIST DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. SOME CIRRUS HAS
BEEN STREAMING IN AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF...AS WELL AS
FROM A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE EQUATORIAL REGION
OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. MASSIVE DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
EXISTS PER GOES DERIVED IMAGERY...DEPICTING 0.6-0.7 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TO 1.4-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA.
REGARDING AIRMASS WARMTH...A BIG DIFFERENCE EXISTS HERE TOO. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWED 925MB TEMPS OF AROUND 16C OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TO 24-30C IN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
CONGEALING INTO A BOWING MCS THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN IOWA. IN
FACT...THE SMALL BOW TRAVERSING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD END UP
BEING THE BOWING MCS. THIS IS VERY WELL AGREED UPON BY BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. FROM THIS POINT...THERE
REMAINS A SPLIT AMONGST SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...
PRIMARILY THE 03.12Z NAM AND 03.09Z SREF WHICH TAKE A FARTHER NORTH
TRACK COMPARED TO THE 03.12Z GFS/ECMWF AND MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE DEALING WITH A BOWING MCS...THE
FORECAST MOTION IS DETERMINED BY CORFIDI VECTORS...AND IN THIS CASE
THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS ARE MORE APPROPRIATE.
THESE VECTORS POINTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUGGEST A TRACK THROUGH
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL...THUS FAVORING THE MORE SOUTHERN
MODELS. THE 03.12Z HI RES ARW AT THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE CONVECTION NOW THE BEST AND ALSO TAKES EVEN MORE OF A SOUTHERN
TRACK.
NOW ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT IS LIKELY TO DROP TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT...THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS FOR A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND TO CROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-90. ALONG WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS
BAND...A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KT JET STREAK AT THE
TROPOPAUSE CROSSING WISCONSIN SHOULD HELP PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SOUTH OF I-90. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT SOUTH OF I-90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS
SUGGEST CLOUD BASES COULD BE ROOTED AT 10000 FT...WHICH MAY TEND TO
LIMIT SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY...INSTABILITY IS
FAIRLY MEAGER ABOVE 10000 FT...THUS LIGHTNING MAY BE ISOLATED AT
BEST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE GONE AFTER 12Z PER 03.12Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SOME HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA PER GFS/ECMWF. DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY
MILD. GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 50S LOOK REASONABLE. ON WEDNESDAY...
INITIAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A
BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. STILL...925MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO 16-18C BY 00Z SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...
1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP.
ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 0.5
INCH OR LESS. THERE ARE SOME ISSUES WITH HOW COLD WE GET...
ESPECIALLY AT OUR COLD SITES WHERE AT SPARTA WI THE MAV IS 36
COMPARED TO 45 OFF THE MET. THE DIFFERENCE IS TIED TO THE SPEED OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SPREADING CLOUDS
TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE 03.12Z NAM BRINGS PRECIPITABLE
WATER BACK UP TOWARDS 1 INCH AT 12Z...REFLECTIVE OF THESE CLOUDS.
FOR NOW HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE MAV AS THE NAM SCENARIO APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER AMONGST MOST GUIDANCE. FOR NOW LEFT OUT A FROST
MENTION SINCE DID NOT GO 100 PERCENT COLD AS THE MAV...BUT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR CENTRAL WI IN LATER FORECASTS.
2. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS A RESULT OF BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN ANY OTHER MODEL.
ALL OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE LEANED THAT WAY.
3. THE WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION. ONE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY...AND A SECOND BEING A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH MN AND WI ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW THESE TWO INTERACT...PRIMARILY WITH
THE 03.00Z/03.12Z ECMWF RUNS MUCH MORE BULLISH SPREADING SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...COMPARED TO THE 03.12Z
GFS/CANADIAN WHICH ARE DRIER. FOR NOW FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS AND
GIVEN THE GENERALLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF...KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UP IN THE 30-60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE CONCERNS STILL SEEM MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A TREND
FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT QUICKER FOR SUNDAY...THUS HAVE LOWER
CHANCES BETWEEN 20-30 THEN. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 8C.
4. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY INCREASES...BUT
THERE IS A GENERAL IDEA FOR RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. EXACT TIMING VARIES...BUT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY
FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
WEEK...THUS THE WARNING CONTINUES THERE.
REGARDING THE TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI...THE ONLY OTHER FLOOD
WARNINGS THAT WERE PRESENT WERE ALONG THE KICKAPOO AND THESE HAVE
NOW BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN MN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH
RIDGING IN-BETWEEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN
TROUGHING AND A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN MN UPPER
LOW. THIS DRY SLOT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING HELPED TO CLEAR
SKIES OUT FROM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S / LOW 80S HAS RESULTED IN 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND
NO CIN. THIS INSTABILITY AND LACK OF CAPPING HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF
IN PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TO THE NORTHWEST...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXIST OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN.
925MB TEMPS ARE SIGNIFICANT COLDER TOO UNDER THESE CLOUDS...NOTED BY
10C TEMP AT BIS AT 12Z COMPARED TO 16-20C OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT NEAR ALEXANDRIA
MN.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY ON ITS WEST SIDE LOOKS TO BECOME CENTERED OVER WI.
FIRST...ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND
WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAY HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME STRONGER CELLS TIL ABOUT 5-6 PM WITH
0-6KM SHEAR RUNNING AROUND 30 KT AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT 20-25KT. THEN
AS THAT TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRATUS AND
SHOWERS. COLD FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z.
REGARDING THOSE SHOWERS...MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOUD DEPTHS WOULD
SUPPORT THEM MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD
PICK UP A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...AS 925MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KT.
DAYTIME HEATING PLUS SUBSIDENCE AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WILL HELP CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA
BY MID MORNING. UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES THEN LOOKS
TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WITH
THIS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA DRY. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE WARMER
AIR ADVECT BACK IN WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO MAKE A DECENT JUMP
DURING THE DAY...FROM 10-12C AT 12Z TO AROUND 18C AT 00Z. PLENTY OF
SUN FROM THE MID MORNING ON UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PROGGED TO COME CLOSE TO
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING NUMEROUS SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA SHEARING OUT AND PROVIDING DPVA FORCING TO THIS REGION.
PLENTIFUL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION TOO. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE THE SAME AMOUNT OF
SPREAD HANDLING THIS CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 02.12Z NAM AND 02.09Z SREF STILL SHOW A NORTHERN
TRACK...BASICALLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06-18Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 02.12Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE 02.12Z HIRES-ARW SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.
SINCE THE CONVECTION IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A BOWING
MCS...AIDED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING HIGH CAPE
OUT OF KANSAS...CORFIDI VECTORS AND IN PARTICULAR THE FORWARD
PROPAGATING VECTORS NEED TO BE FOLLOWED. THESE WOULD SUGGEST THE MCS
SHOULD TAKE THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE... LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA/NORTHERN MO AND INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
SEVERE PROBS ARE IN THE DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK. EVEN IF THIS SOUTHERN
ROUTE OCCURS...IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN END OF THE MCS AND/OR SOME
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...RELATIVELY
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTH OF I-90 FOR 06-18Z
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MCS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM HEAD DOWN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH.
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY
AS THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. THERE
ARE TWO CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH.
1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
PROGGED...DOWN TO 0.5-0.7 INCHES OR 70-90 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALONG
WITH THIS DRY AIR...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE AT THE SURFACE
TO AID IN LIGHT WINDS. MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S
IN SOME OF OUR TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS. AS SUCH...HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST LOWS COLDER...BUT MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
2. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 02.12Z
NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
HOWEVER...THE 02.12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING...PRODUCING MOSTLY SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR AN
UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. PRIOR TO ITS
ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...PERHAPS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SOME...PRIMARILY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN INCREASING MODEL
AGREEMENT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT HIT 70
ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AT OR BELOW 8C WITH PRECIPITATION
LINGERING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
WINDS/GUSTS WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUSTAINED NEAR 10 KTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SLACKENING IN THE GRADIENT LATER ON TUE AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA.
AREAS OF MVFR/VFR CLOUDS ARE LOCATED WEST OF THE LOW...BUT MODEL
TRENDS FAVOR MOVING THIS CLOUD SHIELD EAST...NORTH OF KRST/KLSE.
THUS...ANTICIPATE SKC/SCT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE BETTER
PART OF TUE.
LATER TUE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
DRIVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ACROSS IA. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN/JET INTO AND ACROSS AN ACCOMPANYING WEST-EAST
RUNNING SFC BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF IOWA...LIKELY STRONG TO SEVERE AND CONTAINING HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...THE FAVORED SCENARIO WILL KEEP THE BULK OF
THE PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90...HAVING JUST A GLANCING BLOW FOR
KRST/KLSE. CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY STAY VFR FOR THE MOST PART. ITS A
SCENARIO THAT BEARS CLOSE ATTENTION THOUGH...AS ANY JOG NORTH WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE HIGHER STORM THREAT NORTH WITH IT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TRIBUTARIES. THE KICKAPOO RIVER REMAINS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR TRIBUTARY FLOODING WITH VIOLA HEADING TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE AND READSTOWN ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD BUT CRESTING. SOLDIERS
GROVE AND GAYS MILLS DOWNSTREAM COULD GET CLOSE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE AND THEREFORE NEED TO BE WATCHED.
SOME OF THE RUNOFF HAS HIT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH LEVELS NOW
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING NORTH OF LA CROSSE. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS WABASHA MAY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...THUS A
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THERE. MEANWHILE...AT WINONA...CONDITIONS DO
NOT LOOK NEARLY AS FAVORABLE TO HIT FLOOD...THEREFORE THE WATCH WAS
CANCELLED THERE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
MNZ079.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....AJ
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS
EXITED THE DOOR PENINSULA...BUT SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. DESPITE A LACK OF DESTABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM
WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY
FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SINCE TEMPS HAVE
NOT RECOVERED MUCH FROM THE EARLIER RAINS. LOOKING EVEN FURTHER
UPSTREAM...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND SHOWERS IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TIP OF JAMES BAY. RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...WILL END SHOWER CHANCES OVER NE WISCONSIN
AT THIS TIME. BUT FARTHER WEST...THINK SCT TO WIDELY SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE IN THE EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THEN MAY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BEFORE
WRAP AROUND LOW STRATUS FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA DROPS INTO N-C
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE WITH THE
STRATUS AS WELL. THE EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN MUGGY...THEN SHOULD
SEE COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVE WITH THE STRATUS. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE THE LOW STRATUS SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME HELP FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
MORNING UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEN
SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
RETREATS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
SEVERAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND SREF...APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
AND BRING PCPN TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE MORE CLOSELY
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH SHOW LESS FEEDBACK...AND FOCUS
THE MCS ACTIVITY OVER IA/N IL...NORTH OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT CHC POPS GOING FOR C/EC WI
LATE TUES NGT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STABILITY INDICES INDICATE
LITTLE THREAT FOR THUNDER.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST GOING FROM WEDS NGT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST IS NOT AS HIGH AS
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE ECMWF GENERATES SOME LIGHT PCPN IN
ASSOCIATION A S/W TROF MOVG THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND ALSO DEVELOPS SOME SCT CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WI ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL HANGING
BACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME CONCERN FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE. AS A
RESULT...LIMITED STORM COVERAGE TO ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST AND
EXCLUDED ANY MENTION OF TSRA IN THE TAFS. THEN THINK WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF DIMINISHING CLOUDS THIS EVENING BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
STRATUS SURGES SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THE CLOUD MASS SHOULD YIELD MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. THOUGH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA CONDITIONS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING...WEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN. WILL LEAVE THAT TO
LATER SHIFTS TO UPDATE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN MN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH
RIDGING IN-BETWEEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN
TROUGHING AND A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN MN UPPER
LOW. THIS DRY SLOT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING HELPED TO CLEAR
SKIES OUT FROM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S / LOW 80S HAS RESULTED IN 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND
NO CIN. THIS INSTABILITY AND LACK OF CAPPING HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF
IN PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TO THE NORTHWEST...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXIST OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN.
925MB TEMPS ARE SIGNIFICANT COLDER TOO UNDER THESE CLOUDS...NOTED BY
10C TEMP AT BIS AT 12Z COMPARED TO 16-20C OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT NEAR ALEXANDRIA
MN.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY ON ITS WEST SIDE LOOKS TO BECOME CENTERED OVER WI.
FIRST...ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND
WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAY HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME STRONGER CELLS TIL ABOUT 5-6 PM WITH
0-6KM SHEAR RUNNING AROUND 30 KT AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT 20-25KT. THEN
AS THAT TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRATUS AND
SHOWERS. COLD FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z.
REGARDING THOSE SHOWERS...MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOUD DEPTHS WOULD
SUPPORT THEM MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD
PICK UP A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...AS 925MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KT.
DAYTIME HEATING PLUS SUBSIDENCE AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WILL HELP CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA
BY MID MORNING. UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES THEN LOOKS
TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WITH
THIS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA DRY. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE WARMER
AIR ADVECT BACK IN WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO MAKE A DECENT JUMP
DURING THE DAY...FROM 10-12C AT 12Z TO AROUND 18C AT 00Z. PLENTY OF
SUN FROM THE MID MORNING ON UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PROGGED TO COME CLOSE TO
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING NUMEROUS SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA SHEARING OUT AND PROVIDING DPVA FORCING TO THIS REGION.
PLENTIFUL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION TOO. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE THE SAME AMOUNT OF
SPREAD HANDLING THIS CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 02.12Z NAM AND 02.09Z SREF STILL SHOW A NORTHERN
TRACK...BASICALLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06-18Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 02.12Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE 02.12Z HIRES-ARW SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.
SINCE THE CONVECTION IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A BOWING
MCS...AIDED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING HIGH CAPE
OUT OF KANSAS...CORFIDI VECTORS AND IN PARTICULAR THE FORWARD
PROPAGATING VECTORS NEED TO BE FOLLOWED. THESE WOULD SUGGEST THE MCS
SHOULD TAKE THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE... LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA/NORTHERN MO AND INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
SEVERE PROBS ARE IN THE DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK. EVEN IF THIS SOUTHERN
ROUTE OCCURS...IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN END OF THE MCS AND/OR SOME
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...RELATIVELY
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTH OF I-90 FOR 06-18Z
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MCS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM HEAD DOWN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH.
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY
AS THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. THERE
ARE TWO CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH.
1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
PROGGED...DOWN TO 0.5-0.7 INCHES OR 70-90 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALONG
WITH THIS DRY AIR...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE AT THE SURFACE
TO AID IN LIGHT WINDS. MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S
IN SOME OF OUR TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS. AS SUCH...HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST LOWS COLDER...BUT MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
2. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 02.12Z
NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
HOWEVER...THE 02.12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING...PRODUCING MOSTLY SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR AN
UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. PRIOR TO ITS
ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...PERHAPS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SOME...PRIMARILY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN INCREASING MODEL
AGREEMENT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT HIT 70
ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AT OR BELOW 8C WITH PRECIPITATION
LINGERING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN. RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING ISOLD/SCT
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY IN DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI THIS
AFTN...KEEPING MAIN SHRA/TS THREAT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94.
OTHERWISE...BROKEN VFR CUMULUS FIELD WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING KRST/KLSE TAF SITES. PLAN ON WEST WINDS SUBSIDING AND
DIMINISHING CUMULUS THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET/LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. MODELS THEN HINT AT VFR/MVFR STRATOCUMULUS SWINGING
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...STAYING JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TRIBUTARIES. THE KICKAPOO RIVER REMAINS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR TRIBUTARY FLOODING WITH VIOLA HEADING TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE AND READSTOWN ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD BUT CRESTING. SOLDIERS
GROVE AND GAYS MILLS DOWNSTREAM COULD GET CLOSE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE AND THEREFORE NEED TO BE WATCHED.
SOME OF THE RUNOFF HAS HIT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH LEVELS NOW
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING NORTH OF LA CROSSE. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS WABASHA MAY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...THUS A
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THERE. MEANWHILE...AT WINONA...CONDITIONS DO
NOT LOOK NEARLY AS FAVORABLE TO HIT FLOOD...THEREFORE THE WATCH WAS
CANCELLED THERE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
MNZ079.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1120 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FFG NUMBERS FOR CALUMET FOR 3 HOURS ABOUT 1.65 INCHES OF RAIN.
WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY...MAY INSTEAD NEED TO GO
WITH AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING OR POSSIBLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN
THE NEXT FEW MINUTES. WATCHING THE RAINFALL RATES NEXT SCAN OR
TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREAS AND ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ML CAPES
OVER 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER CELLULAR
IN NATURE BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SLOW CONGEALING TREND FROM
NORTHERN IOWA TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN POSSIBLY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THOUGH HAVE A HAD A FEW WIND REPORTS TO 45 MPH...THE
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE FLASH FLOODING IN THE CENTRAL TO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN CORRIDOR. THE DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS IS
NOT QUITE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW...SO CONCERNS THAT THE OUTFLOW
WILL CAUSE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME. WILL PASS
ALONG THE CONCERNS TO THE EVENING SHIFT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TONIGHT...RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE FEATURES TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TRAILING
END OF ONE VORT MAX WILL BE DEPARTING FAR NE WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING WHILE ANOTHER TAIL OF A VORT WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ROBBING THE MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD...AND
FOCUSING THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS HERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BUT ONCE
THESE FEATURES EXIT...THINK WILL SEE A GENERAL DIMINISHING PRECIP
TREND AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT IS LOST. AFTER
PLENTY OF RAINFALL IN SPOTS TODAY AND A HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE...SUPPORT IS THERE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG LATER TONIGHT. WILL FOCUS THE STRONGER FOG WORDING OVER CENTRAL
AND N-C WISCONSIN WHERE MOS GUIDANCE HITS THE LOWER VSBYS HARDER.
THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
OCCURS...FORCING ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELEVATED CAPES REACHING 600 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS AROUND
20 KTS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LLJ LATE TONIGHT AND A SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE HIGHER IF THIS DEVELOPS. BUT CURRENTLY THINKING FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN THAN A SEVERE THREAT. MUGGY NIGHT
TIME LOWS IN THE 60S.
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NE TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS IT DRAGS A COOL FRONT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
SINCE WINDS ARE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. FORCING ALOFT IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION LOOKS MORE ROBUST AND THINK WILL DRIVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH FORCING ALOFT INCREASING DURING THE
MORNING...THINK WILL SEE AN AREA OF STORMS MOVE FROM SW TO NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ML
CAPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 700-1000 J/KG RANGE WHILE
BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS OVER NE WISCONSIN. IF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP DO NOT HOLD TEMPS BACK...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER NE WISCONSIN. RATHER SKINNY CAPE
SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND TO GO ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WILL BE BRIEF...AS NEAR-SEVERE TSTMS HAVE KEPT US BUSY THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL STILL HAVE LINGERING
POPS MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ON TUESDAY FOR SOME LIGHT WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO
MAINTAINED SOME SMALL POPS OVER C/EC WI ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HUDSON BAY
IS EXPECTED SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY
STORMS. VFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
THEN TO IFR CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT TO MONDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
927 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA AND NONE MORE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED FOR THIS AS WELL AS FOR CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS. SHOULD STILL SEE AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE FOG MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS OR
SO...WITH THE BEST RADAR COVERAGE SO FAR OVR CARBON/ALBANY
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY HIGH-BASED AND HAS PRODUCED LITTLE
OR NO RAINFALL AS SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS UNDOUBTEDLY ARE PRODUCING WINDS GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE WELL-DEFINED
DRYLINE HAD REACHED KIMBALL AND EXTENDED NORTHWEST TOWARDS
DOUGLAS. CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS MOSTLY DEVELOPED ON THE DRY-SIDE
OF THIS DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH DID HAVE AN UPDRAFT GO UP EAST OF THE
THE DRYLINE...WHICH WAS UNABLE TO BE SUSTAINED. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRY PUNCH ASSOCIATED WITH A H3 JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NEBRASKA AS WELL AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING
ACROSS WYOMING. THE AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL CONDUCIVE
TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. AT 19Z...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS TONGUE OF 2000 J/KG
MLCAPE EXTENDING BACK TO NR THE WY/NE STATELINE. THERE CONTINUED
TO BE HOWEVER SOME WEAK MLCIN OF AROUND 20 J/KG IN THIS AREA
TOO...LIKELY DELAYING SOME THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60+ KNOTS WILL AID ORGANIZATION. LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOW WITH STORMS
PUSHING EAST OF THE CWFA BY AROUND 6 PM...WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION OVR THE PANHANDLE AS WELL LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED
IT INTO THE FORECAST.
FLOW BACKS QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE MAINLY OVR THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PROGD SBCAPES FLARING TO 1000-1500
J/KG. 0-6 KM WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY...PROGD TO BE AROUND
50 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GET
SEVERE CONVECTION GOING. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MULTI-CELL
CLUSTER BY LATER AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH EAST TOWARDS THE
SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA IN THE PROGRESS PATTERN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
NO BIG CHANGES THIS PACKAGE FROM WHAT WE INHERITED ON THE MORNING
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST. 12Z GFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE ADVERTISING A MESSY UPPER PATTERN WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER TROUGH SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN THEY SHIFT THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST GOING INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA...BUT HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON BRINGING IT THROUGH UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO OUR EAST. THE
ECMWF NOW HAS A STRONGER SIGNAL IN DEPICTING A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWER TEMPS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS OUR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL LIKELY GET KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 60S UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE WE CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS ADVERTISED ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO LOW END POPS WERE LEFT IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
CLEAR SKIES NOW OVER ALL AERODROMES EXCEPT KCDR WHERE SOME MVFR
CIGS EXIST. SHOULD SEE SOME EXPANSION OF THESE LOW CIGS OVER THE
PANHANDLE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES WITH ALLIANCE AND CHADRON LIKELY
DOWN TO LIFR VISIBILITIES WITH SIDNEY AND SCOTTSBLUFF DOWN TO MVFR
AFTER 09Z. IMPROVG CONDITIONS WEDS MORNING WITH ISOLD TSTMS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE. FEWER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO LESS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND WILL PRODUCE A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND
LARAMIE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER STAGES HAVE CRESTED
AND ARE FORECASTED TO RECEDE. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
SO NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOWMELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RE
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...GARMON
HYDROLOGY...RUBIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1108 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD
ADVANCING COLD POOL FROM STORMS THAT FIRED EARLIER OVER NATRONA
AND CONVERSE COUNTIES ARE RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MORRILL
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS (JUST NORTH OF
ALLIANCE) AND WINDS TO NEAR 75 MPH...ALTHOUGH THEY APPEAR A BIT
WEAKER AT THIS TIME ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OVER MORRILL AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES. AIRMASS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THESE STORMS
IS FAIRLY WORKED OVER NOW AND STABILIZED AS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONGEST STORMS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY STILL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS THEY APPROACH
THE CITY OF SIDNEY. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY 8 PM
WITH A FEW WEAKER ISOLATED CELLS POSSIBLE OUT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MID EVENING WHERE WE STILL HAVE A FEW
CONVECTIVE TOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH ITS
AXIS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH WINDS GOING NORTH TO NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS MOVING OVER MUCH OF CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WEAK INSTABILITY IS SHOWN UP IN THIS REGION...LARGELY
CAUSED BY COOL MIDLVL TEMPS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE
SVR STORMS THROUGH THE AFTN OVER THE CWA...HOWEVER THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS
IS WHERE THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
CO-LOCATED WITH 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION AND
DECREASING INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTN ARE NEGATIVES FOR STRONGER
STORMS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
STORMS DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS WILL
WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING...NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT
WHERE STORMS LINGERED LATE INTO THE NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MIDLVL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH SFC WINDS TURNING TO THE SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF AT ALL...WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH
THE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS COME UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY
TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTN. THE TIMING
OF THE WAVE IS SUCH THAT THE DRYLINE IS LOCATED OVER THE PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND DEWPOINTS
ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE VERY HIGH (60-65F) TO THE EAST.
INSTABILITY IS EXCELLENT (LI VALUES OF -9C) AS IS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SVR STORMS OVER OUR
EASTERN ZONES. OF COURSE IF THE WAVE IS SLOWER AND THE SFC TROUGH
IS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BACK UP ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE THEN THE SVR THREAT WOULD EXTEND TO ALMOST THE ENTIRE
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
GFS SHOWS MAIN SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE
TUESDAY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
MID/UPPER DRYSLOT WORKING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THIS
FAR NORTH WITH THE UPPER DRYSLOT AND HENCE WOULD SUGGEST SOMEWHAT
GREATER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA
AND OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT OVERALL MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND FAIRLY ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SEMI-
ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES
WHEN EACH PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE OUR AREA...SO WE
KEPT AT LEAST SOME POPS GOING MOST AREAS WITH CHANCE POPS
CONCENTRATED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY AS GFS (AND TO SOME DEGREE
THE ECMWF) DEPICTS A LARGESCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING TO OUR EAST WITH
RIDGING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH ON
AMPLIFYING THE EASTERN TROUGH...SO WE MAY END UP RAISING POPS FOR
SUNDAY ON SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SATELLITE PICS TONIGHT SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE WITH A HINT OF FOG/STRATUS NEAR KBFF AND KAIA AS
WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...SO COULD SEE
SOME LOW VSBYS/CIGS CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
KLAR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POTENTIALLY SPILLING DOWN INTO THE
LARAMIE VALLEY. SFC WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AND COULD BRING MVFR CIGS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTO KCYS AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS WYOMING AFTER 17Z. SFC
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW T-STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THIS UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 15 PERCENT BY
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT FORECASTED
SINCE FUELS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE GROWTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH
PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED AND STAGES SHOULD BEGIN TO RECEDE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOWMELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GARMON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
408 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* -RA EARLY THIS MORNING...MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED.
* E TO NE WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT TODAY.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS HOLDING ON OVER THE REGION WHILE A STRONG STORM
COMPLEX IS MOVING THROUGH IA AND CENTRAL IL. THE SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
VCSH TO -SHRA ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS AMPLE DRY AIR
OVER NORTHERN IL WHICH MAY EVAPORATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN.
IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...RAIN WOULD MOVE IN LATER THAN FORECAST.
CIGS TO THE WEST ARE MOSTLY VFR BUT THERE ARE A FEW SITES WITH IFR
TO MVFR CIGS. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DELAY MVFR CIGS AT THE
TERMINALS BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PULL
MVFR CIGS COMPLETELY. WONDERING IF THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE
-SHRA WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR A SHORT WHILE.
WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ALSO A MESS WITH WINDS SHOWING GREAT
VARIABILITY. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH...THE TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY BE CAUGHT IN THE MESSY WIND FIELD. LEFT EAST WINDS IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WE COULD SEE WINDS FROM THE NORTH OR THE EAST.
EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTN WITH CIGS LIFTING AND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE IN STORE TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -RA...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WHEN -RA WILL END.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS NOT FORMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MORNING WIND FORECAST. WINDS HAVE SETTLED A
BIT TO THE WEST...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS IS
PSBL.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
HEADLINES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA...MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS OVER KANSAS AND IT WILL FILL AS
IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRAVELS...THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATER. KEPT EAST WINDS
15-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS TURN NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS THEN
SLOWLY BACK TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WITH THE OPTIONS BEING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY WINDS
TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS LOW AND WE RETURN TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
332 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* -SHRA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED.
* MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN THE MID MORNING.
* E TO NE WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT TODAY.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS HOLDING ON OVER THE REGION WHILE A STRONG STORM
COMPLEX IS MOVING THROUGH IA AND CENTRAL IL. THE SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
VCSH TO -SHRA ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS AMPLE DRY AIR
OVER NORTHERN IL WHICH MAY EVAPORATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN.
IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...RAIN WOULD MOVE IN LATER THAN FORECAST.
CIGS TO THE WEST ARE MOSTLY VFR BUT THERE ARE A FEW SITES WITH IFR
TO MVFR CIGS. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DELAY MVFR CIGS AT THE
TERMINALS BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PULL
MVFR CIGS COMPLETELY. WONDERING IF THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE
-SHRA WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR A SHORT WHILE.
WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ALSO A MESS WITH WINDS SHOWING GREAT
VARIABILITY. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH...THE TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY BE CAUGHT IN THE MESSY WIND FIELD. LEFT EAST WINDS IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WE COULD SEE WINDS FROM THE NORTH OR THE EAST.
EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTN WITH CIGS LIFTING AND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE IN STORE TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA OCCURRING AND TIMING. LINE OF STORMS
MAY PASS TO THE SOUTH AND ARRIVE LATER THAN FORECAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA HAVING A MINIMUM IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM WINDS ARE
EXTREMELY CHAOTIC DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM AND THE CHAOS MAY MOVE
OVER NORTHERN IL.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
HEADLINES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA...MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS OVER KANSAS AND IT WILL FILL AS
IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRAVELS...THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATER. KEPT EAST WINDS
15-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS TURN NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS THEN
SLOWLY BACK TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WITH THE OPTIONS BEING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY WINDS
TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS LOW AND WE RETURN TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
257 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
832 PM CDT
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO OUR WEST
PAINTING A PROGRESSIVELY MORE CLEAR PICTURE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT
IS FOR ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY SOUTH OF
A PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE. ALSO THINK THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN
INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED DOWN THOSE SOMEWHAT. HAVE
ADDED SOME TEMPORAL RESOLUTION INTO THE POPS AS A MORE CLEAR CUT
PICTURE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW FAR
NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AND FOR HOW LONG...BUT LOOKING STILL LIKE A
GOOD SOAKING FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
A POTENT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND VORT MAX ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM MANY
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NE/SOUTHERN IA/FAR NORTHERN MO. ONE EARLIER SUCH LONG-LIVED
CLUSTER THAT MOVED FROM SD THIS MORNING TO FAR NORTHERN MO NOW HAS
LIKELY PLAYED A BIG FACTOR IN KEEPING A MORE SINGLE WIDESPREAD
MCS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVE...AND KEEPING THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT PARKED NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER. THE UPPER SUPPORT AND
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LLJ AND THIS SUPPORT STILL
REALLY SCREAM TOWARD A MORPHING OF MANY OF THE WESTERN CLUSTERS
INTO A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE MCS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD..OVERTAKING SOME OF THE FURTHER EAST
CLUSTERS. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF DEEPER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BASICALLY SOUTH OF THE DVN/ILX RAOBS AND RAP DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS
OF MCS MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS...THE BRUNT OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION
WOULD PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A STILL HEALTHY CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT IS LIKELY TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 3-7 AM TIME...DRIVEN MORE BY THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THIS.
A CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTY POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS REMAINS...BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CWA
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION IT PRESENTS A POSSIBILITY OF WAKE LOW
GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF COLD POOL COMING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DIMINISHING SOME LIKELY EASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OF TWO ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE MAY GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE WI BORDER GIVEN UPPER
SUPPORT AND MID-LEVEL F-GEN. BUT DO NOT HAVE THE GREATEST FEEL FOR
THIS...SO HAVE TAPERED POPS IN THE NORTH SLIGHTLY...BUT QPF MUCH
MORE SO...INCLUDING OVER ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO. CONTINUE WITH OVER
AN INCH FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER WEATHER TAKES HOLD WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BUT
CONTINUED LAKE BREEZE COOLING THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS SETTLED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND PER 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
WAS FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL IL/IND. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A DRY/COOL EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A LAKE BREEZE BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND ADDING LAKE COOLING
AS WELL. A FAIRLY STOUT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WITH STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION PERSISTING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN EXPANSION IN CURRENT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT SEVERE STORMS
EVOLVING INTO AN MCS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA BY
EVENING...QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS A QUICK-MOVING
BOW/DERECHO COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER REGION INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT. SPC HAS JUST UPGRADED
SOUTHERN IOWA PORTION OF THE DAY 1 SEVERE OUTLOOK TO A HIGH RISK.
FOR THE WFO LOT FORECAST AREA...FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE WHICH MAY SHIFT A BIT NORTH WITH TIME DUE TO
PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH
THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT...AS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISE INTO THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. TIMING OF STORMS SHOULD BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH HOURLY HIGH-RES RAP/HRRR MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SPEEDING THE
PROPAGATION OF EVOLVING COMPLEX. IN ANY CASE...SVR/HVY RAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE A LATE NIGHT/VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING EVENT.
WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE DECREASING WITH TIME FROM NORTH-SOUTH AS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING OF COLUMN ALL EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST-NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/NORTHEAST WINDS...
RAIN AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-80. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
WARM-UP BACK TO AVERAGE TEMPS (MID-UPPER 70S) BY FRIDAY. FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL MAINTAIN LAKE COOLING WITH 60S NEAR THE SHORE BOTH
DAYS HOWEVER.
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER RIDGE OFF
TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST AS A MID-LEVEL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY-SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* -SHRA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED.
* MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN THE MID MORNING.
* E TO NE WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT TODAY.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS HOLDING ON OVER THE REGION WHILE A STRONG STORM
COMPLEX IS MOVING THROUGH IA AND CENTRAL IL. THE SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
VCSH TO -SHRA ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS AMPLE DRY AIR
OVER NORTHERN IL WHICH MAY EVAPORATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN.
IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...RAIN WOULD MOVE IN LATER THAN FORECAST.
CIGS TO THE WEST ARE MOSTLY VFR BUT THERE ARE A FEW SITES WITH IFR
TO MVFR CIGS. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DELAY MVFR CIGS AT THE
TERMINALS BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PULL
MVFR CIGS COMPLETELY. WONDERING IF THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE
-SHRA WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR A SHORT WHILE.
WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ALSO A MESS WITH WINDS SHOWING GREAT
VARIABILITY. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH...THE TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY BE CAUGHT IN THE MESSY WIND FIELD. LEFT EAST WINDS IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WE COULD SEE WINDS FROM THE NORTH OR THE EAST.
EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTN WITH CIGS LIFTING AND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE IN STORE TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA OCCURRING AND TIMING. LINE OF STORMS
MAY PASS TO THE SOUTH AND ARRIVE LATER THAN FORECAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA HAVING A MINIMUM IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM WINDS ARE
EXTREMELY CHAOTIC DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM AND THE CHAOS MAY MOVE
OVER NORTHERN IL.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
HEADLINES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA...MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS OVER KANSAS AND IT WILL FILL AS
IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRAVELS...THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATER. KEPT EAST WINDS
15-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS TURN NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS THEN
SLOWLY BACK TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WITH THE OPTIONS BEING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY WINDS
TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS LOW AND WE RETURN TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1244 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
832 PM CDT
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO OUR WEST
PAINTING A PROGRESSIVELY MORE CLEAR PICTURE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT
IS FOR ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY SOUTH OF
A PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE. ALSO THINK THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN
INITIALLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED DOWN THOSE SOMEWHAT. HAVE
ADDED SOME TEMPORAL RESOLUTION INTO THE POPS AS A MORE CLEAR CUT
PICTURE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW FAR
NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AND FOR HOW LONG...BUT LOOKING STILL LIKE A
GOOD SOAKING FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
A POTENT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND VORT MAX ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM MANY
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NE/SOUTHERN IA/FAR NORTHERN MO. ONE EARLIER SUCH LONG-LIVED
CLUSTER THAT MOVED FROM SD THIS MORNING TO FAR NORTHERN MO NOW HAS
LIKELY PLAYED A BIG FACTOR IN KEEPING A MORE SINGLE WIDESPREAD
MCS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVE...AND KEEPING THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT PARKED NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER. THE UPPER SUPPORT AND
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LLJ AND THIS SUPPORT STILL
REALLY SCREAM TOWARD A MORPHING OF MANY OF THE WESTERN CLUSTERS
INTO A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE MCS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD..OVERTAKING SOME OF THE FURTHER EAST
CLUSTERS. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF DEEPER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BASICALLY SOUTH OF THE DVN/ILX RAOBS AND RAP DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS
OF MCS MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS...THE BRUNT OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION
WOULD PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A STILL HEALTHY CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT IS LIKELY TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 3-7 AM TIME...DRIVEN MORE BY THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THIS.
A CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTY POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS REMAINS...BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CWA
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION IT PRESENTS A POSSIBILITY OF WAKE LOW
GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF COLD POOL COMING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DIMINISHING SOME LIKELY EASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OF TWO ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE MAY GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE WI BORDER GIVEN UPPER
SUPPORT AND MID-LEVEL F-GEN. BUT DO NOT HAVE THE GREATEST FEEL FOR
THIS...SO HAVE TAPERED POPS IN THE NORTH SLIGHTLY...BUT QPF MUCH
MORE SO...INCLUDING OVER ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO. CONTINUE WITH OVER
AN INCH FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER WEATHER TAKES HOLD WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BUT
CONTINUED LAKE BREEZE COOLING THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS SETTLED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND PER 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
WAS FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL IL/IND. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A DRY/COOL EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A LAKE BREEZE BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND ADDING LAKE COOLING
AS WELL. A FAIRLY STOUT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WITH STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION PERSISTING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN EXPANSION IN CURRENT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT SEVERE STORMS
EVOLVING INTO AN MCS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA BY
EVENING...QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS A QUICK-MOVING
BOW/DERECHO COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER REGION INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT. SPC HAS JUST UPGRADED
SOUTHERN IOWA PORTION OF THE DAY 1 SEVERE OUTLOOK TO A HIGH RISK.
FOR THE WFO LOT FORECAST AREA...FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE WHICH MAY SHIFT A BIT NORTH WITH TIME DUE TO
PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH
THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT...AS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISE INTO THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE. TIMING OF STORMS SHOULD BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH HOURLY HIGH-RES RAP/HRRR MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SPEEDING THE
PROPAGATION OF EVOLVING COMPLEX. IN ANY CASE...SVR/HVY RAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE A LATE NIGHT/VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING EVENT.
WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE DECREASING WITH TIME FROM NORTH-SOUTH AS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING OF COLUMN ALL EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST-NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/NORTHEAST WINDS...
RAIN AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-80. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
WARM-UP BACK TO AVERAGE TEMPS (MID-UPPER 70S) BY FRIDAY. FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL MAINTAIN LAKE COOLING WITH 60S NEAR THE SHORE BOTH
DAYS HOWEVER.
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER RIDGE OFF
TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST AS A MID-LEVEL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY-SUNDAY. ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* -SHRA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED.
* MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN THE MID MORNING.
* E TO NE WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT TODAY.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS HOLDING ON OVER THE REGION WHILE A STRONG STORM
COMPLEX IS MOVING THROUGH IA AND CENTRAL IL. THE SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
VCSH TO -SHRA ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS AMPLE DRY AIR
OVER NORTHERN IL WHICH MAY EVAPORATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN.
IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...RAIN WOULD MOVE IN LATER THAN FORECAST.
CIGS TO THE WEST ARE MOSTLY VFR BUT THERE ARE A FEW SITES WITH IFR
TO MVFR CIGS. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DELAY MVFR CIGS AT THE
TERMINALS BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PULL
MVFR CIGS COMPLETELY. WONDERING IF THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE
-SHRA WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR A SHORT WHILE.
WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ALSO A MESS WITH WINDS SHOWING GREAT
VARIABILITY. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH...THE TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY BE CAUGHT IN THE MESSY WIND FIELD. LEFT EAST WINDS IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WE COULD SEE WINDS FROM THE NORTH OR THE EAST.
EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTN WITH CIGS LIFTING AND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE IN STORE TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA OCCURRING AND TIMING. LINE OF STORMS
MAY PASS TO THE SOUTH AND ARRIVE LATER THAN FORECAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA HAVING A MINIMUM IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM WINDS ARE
EXTREMELY CHAOTIC DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM AND THE CHAOS MAY MOVE
OVER NORTHERN IL.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
A SERIES OF HIGHS AND LOWS WILL PRODUCE RAPIDLY VARYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS GENERALLY WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...THE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN A BIT OVER THE SOUTH HALF TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...A LOW CENTER
PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
LAKE. NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY WILL STAY BELOW GALE CRITERIA
BUT LIKELY WILL VARY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT STARTING BY LATE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE AFTER TOMORROW INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW CENTER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PASS NEAR THE SOUTH END OF
THE LAKE.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
100 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE U.S. 24 CORRIDOR
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH UPPER 60S NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING WITH ALL EYES ON
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAIN FOCUS REMAIN ON
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH STRATIFORM PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF THE
CONVECTION. GUTTED MSTR PROFILE WAS WELL SHOWN BY ILX AND DTX
SOUNDINGS WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR. LOOKING AT SFC OBS...SOME
INDICATIONS OF INCREASE IN LL MSTR BEGINNING WITH DEWPTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UP. RUC/HRRR/4 KM WRF ALL STILL POINTING TOWARDS A RAPID
INCREASE IN LL MSTR INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EVENTUALLY PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN INDIANA. LARGE PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH TO THE
I-80/90 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS AND APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST AT A
DECENT CLIP. LEADING EDGE WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AND WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO DO SO BUT ALL SIGNS STILL SEEM TO SUGGEST A WET
WEDS MORNING IN STORE FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE MI STATE LINE. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS FOR INCREASE IN POPS FURTHER NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AN INTERESTING SHORT TERM PERIOD TO CONTEND WITH. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
MOVED IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING AND DRY
AIR INTRUSION HAS LED TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER
40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HIRES
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DEGREE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WITH HRRR BEGINNING TO GRAB ONTO IT. THIS A CONCERN
FOR EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR OUR AREA. NAM12 HAS BEEN THROWN OUT GIVEN ITS
CONTINUED OUTLIER SOLUTION OF BEING FURTHER NORTH. BLEND OF OTHER
HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY USED.
RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
AND INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT...NEARING OUR WESTERN
BORDER AROUND SUNRISE. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH LOCATION AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON IT DEVELOPING AND HEADING
TOWARD INDIANA. WARM FRONT BOUNDARY TO SOUTH WILL TRY TO WORK NORTH
TONIGHT WITH STRONG THETA E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET. EXPECT 850-700MB INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT CONCERN GROWING
THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO WORK NORTH ESPECIALLY ONCE MCS
BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED AND SURFACE BASED. THIS SHOULD TAKE BULK OF
STRONGEST CONVECTION SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY RETARD NORTHERN MOVEMENT
OF WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA. HIRES MODELS TAKE MCV INTO INDIANA
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
AND ASSOCIATED HIGHEST QPF. CURRENT THINKING FAVORS SOUTHERN
SOLUTIONS WITH HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN HALF BUT STILL
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS NORTH. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER LOW IN THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN POOR TIMING AND LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT
IN FAR WEST ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IF SYSTEM IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH MCV AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN AFTERNOON. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WITH HIGH
THETA E AIR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES BUT
SPEED OF SYSTEM TO HELP LIMIT AMOUNTS. KEPT HEAVY RAIN MENTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTH AND AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA LOOKS BEST. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY WILL CREEP
NORTH BUT EXPECT OUTFLOWS AND MCV CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH TO KEEP
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WIND SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE NEAR THE WARM FRONT WITH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS WITH LARGE CURVING
HODOGRAPHS DEPICTED. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND A FEW MODELS
SHOWING FURTHER NORTH PLACEMENT...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SEVERE
IN HWO FOR NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE BEGINNING OF THIS
SYSTEM HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH A LARGE HAIL/CORE STORM THAT WAS
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
FAVOR THE 12Z 4KM NAM WHICH IS VERIFYING THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH REASONABLY WELL...BUT WAS SHOWING TOO MUCH
DEVELOPMENT TOO FAR NORTH IN THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THEREFORE...
WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST. THERE WAS STILL SOME VARIETY
AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM CONCERNING THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
CONSENSUS AMONG THESE MODELS INDICATES CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWERED LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TAFS WITH MESOSCALE EVOLUTION OF COMPLEX TO
THE WEST AND MOISTURE RETURN ALL KEY IN FLGT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDS. SEVERAL MODELS STILL SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN/FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH ARRIVAL AT KSBN POSSIBLY
EARLIER THAN CURRENT 13Z TIMING. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS
OVERNIGHT AND AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS COMPLEX DRAWS CLOSER. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ONCE THE RAIN DOES ARRIVE AND MAY
PERSIST MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NOT EXITING UNTIL
THE 3 TO 6Z WINDOW. WILL KEEP BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY/JT
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
...Updated for the aviation forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
The main focus for this afternoon and evenings forecast is again for
chances of severe convection. One big negative for convective
development this afternoon is a warming mid level. Of the convective
allowing models a couple allow no storms across southwest Kansas
while the NMMs, 4 km NAM and the HRRR all support some type of
brief, mainly isolated supercell development coming out of eastern
Colorado near the dryline and sweeping east into west central KS.
Sufficient shear and MUCAPE combinations are in place to support a
brief window of severe threat including large hail (golf balls to
tennis balls in most instances) as well as damaging supercell RFD
winds. Any severe threat is likely confined to locations west of
highway 83 and is low to begin with given the trouble storms will
have gaining large depth.
Wind advisory conditions will persist through sunset before the
surface heating ceases. Some of the warmest overnight temperature of
the season will be experienced tonight and early tomorrow especially
across south central Kansas. The surface cold front will push though
the area by noon on Wednesday providing northeasterly upslope
surface flow. Models at this time are not indicating any additional
convection, at least during the daytime hours on Wednesday. The
model consensus for highs Wednesday range from upper 80s north to
upper 90s south and west.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A convectively active period awaits midweek through the weekend as
southwestern Kansas finds itself in a favorable west-southwest flow
regime with a mean upper tropospheric jet extending from southern
California to central Kansas. A cold front will push south late
tonight into early Wednesday before stalling out just to our south
across the northern Panhandles/far northwest Oklahoma. A few
surface-based storms may form across Barber County late afternoon
Wednesday, however a very warm middle troposphere will likely
prevent surface based convection. Things will change quite a bit
overnight Wednesday night as the 850-700mb layer becomes very warm
frontogenetic as a weak upper level disturbance ripples
east-northeast through the pattern. The warm frontogenetic forcing
for ascent will be quite strong during the 06-12Z Thursday time
frame. Ample moisture in this frontogenetic layer will contribute to
upwards of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE during the overnight hours. All the
reliable global mesoscale models at this time frame are bullish on
nocturnal convective development...and fairly vigorous at
that...especially north of a Garden City to Dodge City to Pratt
line. 2-7km AGL deep layer shear in combination with the
aforementioned 2000 CAPE will be more than favorable for elevated
severe storms capable of very large hail perhaps to two inches in
diameter. A heavy rain threat will also exist as storms would likely
form in a northwest to south east orientation with some individual
convective cell training a distinct possibility.
Everywhere we have 50 or greater POP we will amend the thunderstorm
forecast with Large Hail and Heavy Rain. This will be mesoscale
convective system (MCS) Number One. The overall pattern will remain
unchanged, and the setup for another MCS (Number Two) will likely
take place across the southern half of the DDC forecast area
(along/south of the Arkansas River) in a renewed zone of 850-700mb
warm frontogenesis. MCS Number Two would likely move off into south
central KS and/or northern Oklahoma by daybreak Friday with some
recovery taking place through the day Friday. The surface front will
likely remain just south of the Kansas-Oklahoma border with
post-frontal upslope convection likely to form across eastern
Colorado late in the day Friday. Some of this diurnal activity may
spread into far west-central/southwest Kansas by early Friday
evening as MCS Number Three. What seems more likely is that
nocturnal MCS Number Three will materialize after sunset Friday as
yet another minor disturbance moves northeast through the pattern
across the Central Plains. Eventually, a final, stronger shortwave
trough will eject out into the Central Plains by late in the weekend
and surface-based storms may impact southwestern Kansas. By Saturday
and Sunday, though, the details become increasingly sketchy as the
result of MCS Number Three may place the effective front too far
south for MCS Number Four to impact southwestern Kansas.
The bottom line is that a wet period is in store and much of the
southwest Kansas region will see in excess of an inch of rain before
all is said and done. There will likely be some areas of the
southwest Kansas region that see MUCH more than that...especially of
successive MCS`s track over the same general areas of our region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
Clear skies, good visibility, and VFR conditions will start this
TAF period. Winds will be a little breezy at KHYS for a few more
hours. Winds will shift north toward sunrise in the 12 knot
range, and then shift northeast around mid day and blow at
13g23kt. Some high clouds will filter in around mid day as well.
Beyond this 05/06z time frame, there may be some strong to severe
storms form late Wednesday night, mainly in KHYS and KDDC Taf sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 84 63 82 / 50 40 60 50
GCK 61 82 62 82 / 50 40 40 40
EHA 61 85 62 86 / 20 20 40 40
LBL 63 87 64 87 / 30 20 50 40
HYS 60 81 62 80 / 50 50 30 40
P28 66 86 67 86 / 60 50 60 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
Overall, the forecast is in pretty good shape. Only made minor
updates through the late afternoon and early evening hours to
account for the showers and thunderstorms that developed. Coverage
has decreased to isolated, so have adjusted PoPs as such. Latest
trends in guidance keeps these isolated showers and storms going for
just a little longer before we dry out for a few hours around and
after midnight. Have mirrored this trend as well. As mentioned in
the short-term section and noticeable in some of the models (not
all), additional scattered convection may develop along and near a
boundary situated out ahead of a strong MCS currently diving
southeast through southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Any
convective development in the pre-dawn hours should be concentrated
across southern Indiana and stretch southeastward into the Bluegrass
region of Kentucky.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
But first we have to deal with scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. We have an axis of higher moisture allowing
storms to fire off over southern Indiana so far today. This axis
will shift into the Ohio River Valley the rest of the afternoon
hours and allow for the storms to develop down here. The NAM
stability parameter for these storms seems too high, with it giving
us a higher threat for damaging winds and even hail in these storms.
The RUC looks a little closer to reality. This model indicates gusts
could get up to the 45-50 mph range in stronger downbursts.
Activity should wind down later this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. However, a frontal boundary will stall out
somewhere in the northeast half of our forecast area overnight,
providing a focus for new development toward daybreak Wednesday. In
addition, a potent MCS, developing at this time over NE/SD will rush
southeastward overnight. Will have to monitor how quickly this
system pushes towards us as it will play a key part in how our
severe weather threat pans out the rest of the day Wednesday.
With this forecast package we are still assuming a couple of rounds
of storms possible during the day Wednesday. The first with the
above front should taper off by late morning. A few models develop
new thunderstorms along this boundary even during the late morning
and early afternoon hours, which is not out of the question given
the moist airmass in place and boundaries running around. However,
still think the threat for severe will be highest should we get a
longer pause and consequent destabilization. Still looking at
discrete convection at the onset, which could lead to isolated
tornadoes over southern Indiana at first. Then as a line starts to
merge from these cells, we would see damaging winds take over as the
main threat, especially as model DCAPEs are well into the 1000s.
Timing this threat into the rest of Kentucky is a little more
difficult as we have to see how the line organizes. It should push
southeastward, but perhaps force new convection off to the west of
the line. The 4 km NAM blasts a long east/west line through our
whole forecast area in the evening, which would neutralize any
further threat for severe weather. However the 12km NAM has a
somewhat similar setup to what we had two Wednesdays ago, with
storms first firing over southern Indiana, pushing southeast and
then additional development west of the line. That scenario would
keep the threat for severe weather well into the night, as well as
the potential for flooding rains in areas that get more than one
round of storms.
The actual front looks to move into the region early Thursday,
bringing an end to precip along with drier and cooler air. Have lows
Thursday morning ranging from the upper 50s in southern Indiana to
around 70 in south central Kentucky. Highs Wednesday of course will
depend on the cloud cover, but for now have readings similar to
today, though south central Kentucky taking longer to cloud over
should get them at least into the upper 80s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014
The cold front will continue to move southward Thursday, sinking
south of the KY/TN border by mid day. Some showers or thunderstorms
will persist across south central KY in the morning hours before the
drier air work in during the afternoon. Dry conditions are then
expected Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the north.
Another wave riding along the frontal boundary may spread a few
showers into the southwestern portion of southern KY Friday, but
most of the region should remain dry through Friday night.
Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday with highs only reaching
into the mid to upper 70s. Lows will dip down into the mid to upper
50s. Friday will see a bit of warming with highs back into the lower
80s.
A warm front will then move back to the north across the area
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop as moisture surges back in, with the better chance for
storms Saturday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
Sunday into Sunday night ahead of the cold front. There is still a
bit of disagreement in the models as to how fast the cold front
moves through, but it should clear the area by mid day Monday and
high pressure will build in once again. We should then see dry
conditions through Tuesday. High temperatures will be back into the
mid 80s Saturday and Sunday. Behind the front Monday`s highs will
drop back into the upper 70s to around 80.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Washed out frontal boundary looks to remain situated from roughly
KMCI to KCRW overnight. Within a weak low-level WAA scheme, we`re
likely to see isolated-scattered convection develop along this
boundary overnight. Already seeing this activity trying to get
started out to the east between KFFT and KLEX. For now plan on
going with VCTS at KLEX during the pre-dawn hours. Additional
convection may develop further west out toward the KSDF area by
04/09Z thus will maintain the previous VCTS through roughly
04/14Z...though will monitor trends later this morning and may be
able to trim those ending times back. KBWG looks to remain quiet
overnight with VFR conditions. A light southwest wind of 3-7kts is
expected overnight.
After 04/14Z dry and VFR conditions look to be the rule across the
terminals. We should see surface winds pick up out of the southwest
with sustained speeds of 10-12kts and gusts up in the 19-22kt
range. Additional thunderstorm activity is projected to develop
along a residual cold pool/outflow boundary from the ongoing MCS
moving through northern MO and eventually into IL/IN. Confidence
remains high enough to warrant VCTS after 04/20Z at KSDF and KLEX.
Model proximity soundings suggest a stronger cap holding at KBWG
keeping convection to a minimum. However, a line of convection may
develop and surge southward toward southern KY after 04/00Z. Will
time to fine tune these forecast elements after a full evaluation of
the 04/00Z guidance suite.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........MJP
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
421 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWING ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND DRIZZLE.
THE 07Z SATELLITE IMAGERY FORM THE GOES-E IFR PROBABILITY SHOWED
STRATUS SPREADING TO THE NORTH W/HUL TO KBHB SEEING CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST HAD SOME
FOG AS WELL. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP AND NAM THIS
MORNING PER THE SOUNDINGS. THE SREF WAS A BIT SLOW ON THE DRAW
W/BRINGING THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE INTO NE MAINE THIS MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE W/BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY W/SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS EVIDENT FROM THE OBS AND SATELLITE. THE RAP ALONG
W/THE NAM DOES SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON W/THE WESTERN AREAS SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES E. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP
SHOWED THE RAINFALL SHRINKING UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER AIR
FURTHER TO THE E AND THIS IS SHOWN WELL ON THE SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS TO BACK UP THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS TIL THE AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE W AND SW AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE THE LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIP.
AN AREA OF STEADIER RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A TROF AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SWING ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE
LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT THE RAINFALL. DECIDED TO BRING 60%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST. ADDED FOG FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND THE COAST W/A CONTINUED SSE FLOW IN THE
LLVLS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS(QPF) BASED ON THE
LATEST 6HRLY REPORTS SHOWING LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. THEREFORE, QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
AVERAGE OF 0.5 TO .25" AREAL WIDE W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE W AND NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE LATE FRIDAY. FOR POPS WILL BLEND THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS GENERATED FROM THE
MOSG25. HAVE USED THE SUPPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
QPF FROM A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY THEN MOVE EAST
LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT PASSING
TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE SUPPER BLEND TO
POPULATE ALL GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO SPREAD ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING W/DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE A BIT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CIGS WILL DROP BACK TO IFR TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS W/THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF THIS TAKING SHAPE FROM KHUL SOUTHWARD INTO KBGR
AND KBHB.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. AN EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES OVER
THE WATERS W/A 10-11 SECOND PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
FORECAST OF 2-4 FOOT SWELLS AND WINDS SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT.
FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT. VBSYS ARE
ALREADY 1NM OR LESS AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
GIVEN THE LATEST SETUP W/A SSE FLOW.
SHORT TERM: WILL USE THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPPER BLEND WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT EASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY.
A NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE MARITIMES. LONG PERIOD WAVES
FROM THIS FETCH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
TO MAXIMUM OF 6 FEET/9-10 SECONDS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE
SYSTEM WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY. FOR WAVES
WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WNA/4.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
119 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
120 AM UPDATE: FOLLOWING THE GOES-E IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY,
DECIDED TO INCREASE THE STRATUS FURTHER N AND E AND INCLUDED AREAS
OF FOG AS WELL. THE 03 SREF COMING IN HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
STRATUS AND FOG. LAPS SOUNDINGS AIDED BY THE 03Z RAP SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE IN THE DOWNEAST AND COAST UP INTO NE MAINE
THIS MORNING AND CARRIED THAT WORDING AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH UP W/THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: ON WED...ANY SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR W WILL TAKE
THEIR TIME TRAVERSING INTO CNTRL AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF BLOCKING IN THE N ATLC. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
DISSIPATION OF LOW CLDNSS... SPCLY NRN AND INLAND PTNS OF THE E
PTN OF THE FA...WITH SOME MIDDAY FILTERED SUNSHINE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SHWRS ADVC ON TOWARD THE ERN ME/NB BORDER BY WED EVE. WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF FILTERED SUN... WE DID RAISE HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEG OVR THE NE. QPF AMOUNTS WED AND SPCLY WED AFTN WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH CNVCTN ACCOMPANIES THE COLD FRONTAL SHWR BAND...BUT MOST
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH AT ALL IN THE WAY OF AFTN FCST CAPE...SO
WE LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR WED FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A DIEING FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT FALLS APART
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS.
INTERESTING SETUP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOST MODELS DEVELOP SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND
TRACK IT TO ROUGHLY NOVA SCOTIA EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, STILL QUITE
A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS TO THE BAY OF FUNDY, THE WHOLE AREA COULD GET QUITE THE
SOAKER, BUT IF IT TRACKS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, DOWNEAST WOULD GET
THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN WITH JUST LIGHT SHOWERS UP NORTH.
WENT WITH A COMPROMISE APPROACH, NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, WHICH ENTAILS LIKELY POPS FOR MOST
AREAS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THINGS DRY
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS SLOWLY DEPART THE FORECAST AREA AND A WELL-
DEFINED...ALBEIT SHORT-LIVED...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER
RIDGE TAKES HOLD AND SUNDAY PANS OUT TO BE SUNNY...WARM...AND DRY.
MONDAY SHOULD BEGIN AS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY BUT THE NEXT SURFACE
FRONT AND UPPER TROF BEGIN TO ENCROACH AND PUSH THE RIDGE EAST
WITH SHOWERS...POSSIBLE TS...MOVING IN BY MID-DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
MODERATED SOMEWHAT DURING RAIN EVENTS BUT OTHERWISE THE REGION
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS AND THEN CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR AND IFR. IFR ALREADY DOWN ACROSS KBGR KBHB. SOME RECOVERY TO
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING
TIL ERLY AFTN.
SHORT TERM: MVFR LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR FOR DOWNEAST. IFR EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED WITH FCST WINDS AND WV HTS XPCTD
TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA TNGT AND WED. WE USED A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL AND MODEL-MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS...AND WENT A LITTLE BLO WW3
WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD FROM AROUND 4 FEET ON THURSDAY TO
AROUND 6 FEET ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE WATERS. KEPT WINDS JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR NOW,
BUT THESE WINDS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
LOW TRACK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
401 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING AND GENERAL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
STILL POSITIONED ACROSS SE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SUSTAIN
A DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. EXTENSIVE
CANOPY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS NOW FUNNELING ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH MULTIPLE MCS COMPLEXES NOW ANCHORED TO THE DEFINED LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL IL/IN.
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE REFLECTION AND ATTENDANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...SOME NORTHWARD FLUCTUATION
OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE IS EXPECTED AS STRONG 850 MB FLOW/NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET FORCING WORKS IN BEHIND THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOW THIS PROCESS TRANSLATES INTO THE EVENTUAL DOWNSTREAM
PROPAGATION/MAINTENANCE OF ANY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE OR
MCV REMAINS AN UNKNOWN. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A TENDENCY
FOR THE PROPAGATION VECTOR TO LEAN TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY
EXISTING TO THE SOUTH.
DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER MESOSCALE FORCING...THIS WOULD THEN LEAVE
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHATEVER MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION/FGEN CAN EMERGE AS THE ELEVATED FRONTAL SLOPE ATTEMPTS
TO ARC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. 00Z ARW MODEL AND
LATEST RUC ASSESSMENT POINT IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ASCENT BETWEEN 700-500 MB...RESULTING IN A WELL DEFINED PIVOT POINT
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THAT ESSENTIALLY BISECTS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST ITERATION OF POPS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...A TIGHTENING OF THE POP GRADIENT FROM CATEGORICAL
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ARB-DTW CORRIDOR TO LITTLE CHANCE NORTH OF I-69.
THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT FORCING ANCHORS LOWER
ON THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND/OR ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH PROVIDES
A GREATER NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND EFFECTIVE
ASCENT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAVE A BROADER AREA
OF SE MICHIGAN SIMPLY UNDER THICK MID CLOUD WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION GENERATION...AND WILL PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY LARGELY
NON-EXISTENT WITH ANY THETA-E CONTRIBUTION NEGLIGIBLE...SO PROSPECTS
FOR THUNDER EVEN NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LOOK SLIM.
THE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAP HIGHS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME FILTERED SUN IS PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS MAINLY LOWER
70S. ANY LINGERING ASCENT LEFT IN THE COLUMN WILL VACATE INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE EDGE OF
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. A CLEARING SKY AND DIMINISHING GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO APPROACH THE 40S IN THE COLDEST LOCALES.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER-WISE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH REALLY ONLY ONE SYSTEM TO CONTEND
WITH THIS WEEKEND. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ALOFT WITH THE
ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET HELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO A STRONG
RIDGE SPRAWLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE POLAR JET IS MORE
AMPLIFIED BUT ITS POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH TROUGHS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS ON OCCASION. SOUTHERN MI WILL
FIND ITSELF IN BETWEEN THE TWO JET FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN AT THE SFC. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL
HAVE A LARGE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH ITS CANADIAN
ORIGINS...850MB TEMPS AROUND 6C THURSDAY INCREASING TO 10C FRIDAY.
THURSDAY THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL TO OUR NW RESULTING IN NE FLOW OVER
THE AREA. COOLER CANADIAN AIR BLOWING OVER COOL LAKE HURON WILL
YIELD TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S...LAKE SHORE AREAS AND INLAND AREAS RESPECTIVELY. THE HIGH WILL
CENTER ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY ENDING THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW DEGREE JUMP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...WHICH IS IN
THE MID 70S. ALSO ON FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REACH THE
STATE. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY DRY WITH PWATS AROUND A HALF INCH SO
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
CHANGES BEGIN TAKING SHAPE ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE
SE ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO MI. BOTH MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH THE WARMING TREND CLIMAXING IN
THE UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT TIED TO A SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL ABSORB A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE
RESULTING PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BEING
ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT MODELS ADVERTISE MANY DIFFERENCES FROM DEGREE OF
PHASING TO AMOUNT OF FORCING ALONG THE FRONT VS THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF. WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR THE SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT DRYING US BACK OUT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A
REMNANT FRONT TODAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...MAINLY LAKE ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE...THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. LAKE HURON SHOULD MISS OUT
ON MOST OF THE RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD CLIP THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN BASIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACOMPANY THE SYSTEM
WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY DRAWING VERY NEAR THE STATE BORDER.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
//DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW ADVANCING ACROSS ERN NE/SRN
IA/NRN MO WILL LARGELY TRACK SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM
RAIN MAY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SRN LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF
THE ONSET OF RAIN AND HOW FAR NORTH THE RAINFALL REACHES CARRIES A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. THESE FACTORS WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY UPON THE PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION COMPLEXES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
NORTH OF METRO DETROIT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC HIGH NOW OVER SRN MI SHOULD KEEP CLOUD BASES OVER 6K
FT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS HOWEVER A POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD
BASES TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE DAY /ESPECIALLY AROUND
METRO DETROIT/ IF THE RAIN PROVES TO BE MORE PROLONGED.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER NRN ONTARIO AND A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...GUSTY WEST WINDS PREVAILED BEHIND
A DEPARTING 993 MB LOW TO NEAR JAMES BAY. RADAR INDICATED A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
RELATIVELY LOW 800 MB TEMPS NEAR 2C ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE DIURNAL CELLULAR CU AND ANY SPRINKLES
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
WED...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NRN
LAKES AND KEEPS THE ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDAY WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM
SRN IA INTO NRN IL. WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...PROMINENT LAKE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. DEEP MIXING ABOVE 850 MB WILL DROP AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS BELOW 40F WITH RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT AS INLAND HIGH TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AT 00Z THURSDAY THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE STRETCHED FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND WI. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDED FROM
THE MAIN HIGH OVER THE S U.S. UP THROUGH MN AND ONTARIO. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ONE ALTERNATE/WETTEST
SOLUTION IS THE 03/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...WHICH PAINTS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA ALREADY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
LESS WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
CENTRAL AND E MN /AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM/. WILL KEEP THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...BUT ALSO ADD SOME
INLAND W THIRD CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
100-300J/KG CAPE VALUES AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES. PUT IN A QUICK 20
POP...BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT REMAINS DRY.
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE THE RULE THURSDAY...AND PRIMARILY
OFF LAKE MI AND W UPPER MI ON FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPS A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE SHORELINES.
GIVEN THE DRY WEATHER...FIRE CONCERNS WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK INTO
THE WEATHER PICTURE. DOWNGRADED THE ELEVATED BACK TO LIMITED IN THE
EHWO FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL...AND CUT
BACK THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY GIVEN THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
EXPECT THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SETTLE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
W UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SHIFTING E SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TRIALLING MAIN 500MB
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE STACKED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SWING
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE FCST. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIMITED AT THIS TIME...SO KEPT THEM
IN FOR ONLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE MAIN
FRONT...WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
DRIER AIR WILL THEN SWEEP IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGERING FOR THE START OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG AT KIWD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED OFF RECENT OBS...BUT SHOULD NOT
DROP BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO SAT AS SFC HIGH PRES GENERALLY DOMINATES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/SRF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PAIRED WITH RAP ANALYZED 500MB
HEIGHTS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A POTENT MCS WAS EASILY
VISIBLE VIA REGIONAL RADAR SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER FROM NEBRASKA TO ILLINOIS. THIS MCS
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS IT RACES ACROSS ILLINOIS LATER
THIS MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. THE AFFECT OF THIS ON OUR WEATHER WAS
SOME EARLIER RAINFALL THAT HAD SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...BUT POPS WERE QUICKLY HACKED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS AS NEWEST HI-RES MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS MADE IT
CLEAR THE PRECIPITATION WAS GOING TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME LESS AND LESS. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW /RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING WEATHER JUST TO OUR
SOUTH/ DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BY NEAR 10 MPH. THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY STRETCHED SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN MANITOBA. ITS AFFECT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER
WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS
BOUNDARY THAT EXPLAINS THE INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN MINNESOTA JUST PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY. FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
OF YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL MEAN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FAST-
MOVING WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF JUNE.
THE FIRST OF THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS SET TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY...AT THE SAME TIME AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT /TRAILING A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN MANITOBA/ MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE THE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL MN...WITH DECLINING CHANCES WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED THE
HIGHEST POPS /60-70 PERCENT/ OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...TAPERING TO
30 PERCENT FOR THE TWIN CITIES...AND 20 PERCENT FOR WEST CENTRAL
WI.
THE NEXT WAVE WORTHY OF MENTION IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND INTERACTS WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD
FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO HAVE STALLED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN NATURE...THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED WELL TO THE
SOUTH /SOUTHERN MISSOURI/. THEREFORE THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING
RAINS IN THE CWA IS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MEAN
COOL TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DID
RETAIN 20 POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT THAT MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED.
YET ANOTHER WAVE IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE 04.00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE NOTABLY
DIFFERENT REGARDING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMPLITUDE OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 20-30 PERCENT POPS AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING ESE TOWARD MN/IA
BORDER AREA BY WEDNESDAY MID MORNING. SYSTEMS WEAKENS AS IT HEADS
TOWARD MODEST UPPER RIDGE. THEREFORE EXPECT ONLY SOME BKN MID
CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING. STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS.
BEST LIFT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP AT
THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...EAST WINDS WILL BUMP UP SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH A LITTLE BIT OF GRADIENT BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN 10
KNOTS.
KMSP...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SOME MID CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT. ONLY OTHER MATTER IS WIND DIRECTION. WIND SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST OR EVEN ENE
BY 11Z AND REMAINING EAST MUCH OF THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH FINALLY
DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN WINDS SHOULD
TURN MORE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC SHRA/TSRA. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
438 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Large MCS with embedded line segments containing strong wind gusts
and very rainfall rates continues to drop southeastward through the
northern and western portion of our forecast area early this
morning. The IR cloud tops have begun to cool which may signal the
beginning of a slow weakening trend in the convection. No new
severe thunderstorm watches are anticipated, although there still may
be isolated severe wind gusts along with localized flooding this
morning. The gradually weakening convection should shift
southeastward through east central and southeast MO and southwest
IL early this morning, then likely shift southeast of our
forecast area by late morning as advertised by the HRRR model.
Although the actual synoptic cold front will not make it down to
central MO and southern IL until late this afternoon or early
this evening, the effective boundary will be the outflow
boundaries from this mornings convection and will be further
south. Therefore redevelopment of convection this afternoon
should be mainly across southeast MO and southwest IL. High
temperatures will be quite warm again today south of the cold
front despite the morning cloud cover.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
The cold front will drop southward into southern portions of MO
and IL tonight with convection confined to southeast MO and
southwest IL tonight along the front. A surface ridge will build
southward into northeast MO and west central IL and bring cooler
temperatures to this area. This front will push just south of our
forecast area on Thursday with cooler, slightly below normal high
temperatures forecast. With weak shortwaves moving fairly quickly
eastward through the region in nearly zonal flow along with the
frontal boundary gradually trying to lift back northward as the
surface ridge over the Great Lakes region shifts eastward into
the Ohio Valley region, the threat for convection will gradually
shift back north-northeastard through our forecast area Thursday
night and Friday. The models are relatively consistent in bringing
convection through our entire forecast area late Friday night and
Saturday as a fairly strong shortwave shifts eastward through the
region and induces a surface wave along the front which should be
across northern or central portions of MO by this time. The chance
of convection will continue on Sunday as a cold front drops
southeastward through the region Sunday afternoon and night.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
An elongated mesoscale convective system currently stretches from
central IL across northern MO into southeast NE, and is focused
along and north of the warm front. There are a number of intense
thunderstorm clusters on the southern periphery of this elongated
system, and the overall motion is to the east southeast. KUIN
should continue to see bouts of thunderstorms through daybreak with
flight conditions varying from MVFR to IFR. It still appears that
the thunderstorm complex will impact both KCOU and the St. Louis
area terminals for a 3-4 hour period accompanied by gusty winds
and flight conditions ranging from MVFR to IFR. Additional
scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along the
front on Wednesday afternoon as it gradually settles southward but
the probability is too low to explicity mention in the TAFS.
Specifics for KSTL:
A complex of thunderstorms extending from northwest Missouri into
southeast Nebraska will move southeastward during the overnight
hours. Present indications are the thunderstorm complex will have
enough southward push to impact KSTL beginning around 10z and
lasting until around 14z. The intensity is hard to gage and could
certainly be stronger than the current forecast of wind gusts to
25 kts and MVFR flight conditions. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible along the front on Wednesday afternoon
as it moves southward, and have added a VCTS for 21z-00z.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
409 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Large MCS with embedded line segments containing strong wind gusts
and very rainfall rates continues to drop southeastward through the
northern and western portion of our forecast area early this
morning. The IR cloud tops have begun to cool which may signal the
beginning of a slow weakening trend in the convection. No new
severe thunderstorm watches are anticipated, although there still may
be isolated severe wind gusts along with localized flooding this
morning. The gradually weakening convection should shift
southeastward through east central and southeast MO and southwest
IL early this morning, then likely shift southeast of our
forecast area by late morning as advertised by the HRRR model.
Although the actual synoptic cold front will not make it down to
central MO and southern IL until late this afternoon or early
this evening, the effective boundary will be the outflow
boundaries from this mornings convection and will be further
south. Therefore redevelopment of convection this afternoon
should be mainly across southeast MO and southwest IL. High
temperatures will be quite warm again today south of the cold
front despite the morning cloud cover.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014
(Wednesday through Friday)
Main concern will the potential for a few severe thunderstorms over
the southern part of the CWA during the day on Wednesday. Any
severe weather from tonight`s MCS should have moved east the area by
12Z, though lingering showers and thunderstorms will likely still be
producing some rainfall over the northern and eastern counties in a
band of 925-850mb moisture convergence. This forcing will then
diminish during the morning hours as the low level jet weakens and
veers. The atmosphere will become extremely unstable along the
front during the afternoon hours with MLCAPE values reaching
3000-4000 J/kg with little CINH. Deep layer shear will also be in
the 40-50kt range suggesting that any storms are able to develop
along the front will be capable of becoming severe. Front will not
move far enough south on Wednesday night to keep thunderstorms out
of the forecast over the southern part of the CWA.
By Thursday the front will move far enough south that all but part
of the eastern Ozarks will be dry. By Thursday night and Friday the
ECMWF is showing strong low level moisture convergence over the area
at the same time that a weak shortwave trough will move across the
area. Have a chance of showers and thunderstorms going both
periods.
After being well above normal over most of the area tomorrow,
temperatures will below normal on Thursday and Friday.
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Looks like there is enough agreement between the GFS and ECMWF that
a warm front will move north into Missouri and Illinois by Saturday
evening in response to a surface low developing over the Central
Plains. The surface low will then track northeast to near Chicago
by early Sunday which will cause a cold front to pass through the
CWA during the day. Will still have best chances of showers and
thunderstorms going Saturday into Sunday. The front will move well
south of the area on Monday, though another trough will move through
the area on Tuesday bringing a slight chance of showers.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm behind the warm front on
Saturday, though they will be at or a bit below normal the rest of
the period behind the cold front.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
An elongated mesoscale convective system currently stretches from
central IL across northern MO into southeast NE, and is focused
along and north of the warm front. There are a number of intense
thunderstorm clusters on the southern periphery of this elongated
system, and the overall motion is to the east southeast. KUIN
should continue to see bouts of thunderstorms through daybreak with
flight conditions varying from MVFR to IFR. It still appears that
the thunderstorm complex will impact both KCOU and the St. Louis
area terminals for a 3-4 hour period accompanied by gusty winds
and flight conditions ranging from MVFR to IFR. Additional
scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along the
front on Wednesday afternoon as it gradually settles southward but
the probability is too low to explicity mention in the TAFS.
Specifics for KSTL:
A complex of thunderstorms extending from northwest Missouri into
southeast Nebraska will move southeastward during the overnight
hours. Present indications are the thunderstorm complex will have
enough southward push to impact KSTL beginning around 10z and
lasting until around 14z. The intensity is hard to gage and could
certainly be stronger than the current forecast of wind gusts to
25 kts and MVFR flight conditions. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible along the front on Wednesday afternoon
as it moves southward, and have added a VCTS for 21z-00z.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
Cold front over northern Missouri will drop south through the region
today. While there could be some scattered storms along the front as
the airmass destabilizes this afternoon, subsidence in the wake of
this morning`s MCS and a lack of any appreciable synoptic-scale
ascent should keep the thunderstorm threat fairly isolated. The best
chance will be across eastern KS into central MO where the atmosphere
will have more time to destabilize when the front arrives later in
the afternoon. Instability and shear will be marginally supportive of
strong winds and hail with any storms that develop.
Active zonal flow will continue across the region Thursday into the
weekend and will bring a number of convective complexes into the
Plains and Midwest. The first of these systems will arrive Thursday
and will interact with a quasi-stationary boundary over southern
parts of Kansas and Missouri. This will keep the primary threat for
severe storms near and south of the boundary, generally south of a
Paola to Clinton line. However with the elevated boundary hanging
back further north a few storms could reach as far north as the
Missouri River Thursday afternoon.
The next wave will track into the region Friday night and Saturday
morning bringing another complex of thunderstorms. The frontal boundary
to the south may shift slightly further north through this time, but
should stay generally south of the US 50 corridor keeping any threat
for severe storms confined to the southern parts of the forecast area
into southeast KS and the Ozarks.
Additional thunderstorms are possible later in the weekend into early
next week as this active zonal pattern continues, but confidence
deteriorates beyond Saturday due to uncertainties with the timing of
additional waves and the location of the quasi-stationary front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Tricky TAF period with ongoing convection across NE, IA, and northern
MO which is progged by the hi-res HRRR model to drop southeastward
across NW Missouri down through east-central Missouri. This convection
appears to be following a warm frontal boundary. Isolated convection
developing near the terminals is currently moving northeastward
towards this front. As the cold pool continues to strengthen along
this warm front, the front may begin to sag southward and allow the
southwest end of the convective complex to near the terminals.
Confidence is low on how far south this complex will extend, thus
will monitor trends of the complex and amend as necessary. For now
have left mention of VCTS for the terminals for isolated activity.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1210 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
Further updates to the forecast for a new severe watch box. The
veering low level jet will continue to interact with the cold pool
being put down by the thunderstorms extending across southeast
Nebraska through northern Missouri. This is expected to maintain
storms along the instability gradient allowing the storms to settle
farther south into west central and central Missouri. Character of
the storms as they settle into west central and central Missouri
should be dominated by large hail and the potential for damaging
winds, but these storms will also include torrential rain. For this
reason have also expanded the flash flood watch to mirror the
existing tornado and severe thunderstorm watches.
UPDATE Issued at 1029 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Based on rainfall rates observed with the storms in far northern
Missouri, have opted to expand the flash flood watch to include all
the counties that tornado watch 210 include. This includes the KC
metro. Rainfall rates of two inches per hour, and some higher, will
be likely with the storms that occur late tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Tornado watch 210 has been expanded south from its original coverage
area based on storm motion associated with the activity currently in
southeast Nebraska. The storms are beginning to turn more southeast
as the low level jet begins to veer this evening. Main threat with
the storms is going to be large hail, damaging winds and torrential
rain. Tornadoes can`t be ruled out, but they are not the primary
threat at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Significant severe episode well underway although the vast majority
of the CWA is dry and will remain so until around sunset when the
upstream MCS/eventual Derecho presses into northern MO. Northern MO
remains under the highest threat for both severe storms as well as
flooding type rainfall. This due to the location of a nearly
stationary front draped across far northern MO and is depicted by
change in character of the cu field and surface obs. Small cluster
of severe storms tracking along the MO/IA border is being enhanced
by strong 0-6km shear of 50-65kts while the 0-1km shear around 20kts
is likely just not strong enough to support for tornadic activity.
However, these values will increase as evening approaches so any
additional storms which form ahead of the approaching MCS will have
a greater chance to spawn tornadoes. A look at the STJ hodograph for
this evening shows why. Impressive as is the MUCAPES of
3000-4000J/kg.
12Z ECMWF and HRRR appear to have best fit of evolution of the large
MCS and backbuilding convection now underway across northern NE.
Current radar trends and HRRR output surge the MCS southeast through
the north central and northeast CWA this evening while the
backbuilding convection over northern NE slides through northwest MO
and northeast KS with possibilities of reaching the KC Metro after
midnight. Current Flash Flood watch over northern MO looks on track.
Convection will finally exit the eastern CWA during the per-dawn
hours of Wednesday morning. A post-frontal cold front will trail and
eventually sweep through the CWA on Wednesday. The cold air
advection will lag allowing favorable mixing of the elevated warm layer
to mix down resulting in another very warm day. Could see highs
around 90 across the far southern CWA. Will keep slight chance PoPs
across this area as peak heating and some convergence along the
front could form isolated convection.
This front is not expected to move too far south of the CWA with the
very moist and unstable airmass poised to the south of the frontal
boundary. Models embed a number of weak shortwave troughs within
moderately strong westerlies crossing the Central Rockies and Central
Plains Wednesday night through Thursday night. In fact this pattern will
continue into the weekend. Elevated convection is the end result as
these shortwaves lift the unstable air above the boundary and
generate scattered convection. Could see a couple additional rounds of
convection. Temperatures will likely be a tad below average as we`ll
be under easterly flow from high pressure.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A quasi-zonal pattern will remain quite active through the end of
the extended forecast period. A number of shortwave troughs will
translate through the flow and will bring a few chances for heavy
rainfall through the beginning of the weekend. One round of precip will
develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday morning. Another
convective complex will develop Friday and continue into Saturday
with the potential for more heavy rainfall as models forecasting
precipitable water values of 1 to over 2 inches across the general region
With the Gulf wide open, do not see any issues with moisture return
during this period, however, exact timing of these systems still
remains in question.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
Tricky TAF period with ongoing convection across NE, IA, and northern
MO which is progged by the hi-res HRRR model to drop southeastward
across NW Missouri down through east-central Missouri. This convection
appears to be following a warm frontal boundary. Isolated convection
developing near the terminals is currently moving northeastward
towards this front. As the cold pool continues to strengthen along
this warm front, the front may begin to sag southward and allow the
southwest end of the convective complex to near the terminals.
Confidence is low on how far south this complex will extend, thus
will monitor trends of the complex and amend as necessary. For now
have left mention of VCTS for the terminals for isolated activity.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ025-102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ031>033-
038>040-043>046-054.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>030-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cutter
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1215 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
REFLECTIVITY AS OF 05 UTC SHOWS THE LINE OF STORMS IN EASTERN
MONTANA DIMINISHING AND SLOWING A BIT. THE ENTIRETY OF THE LINE IS
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND WOULD NOT EVEN BE CONSIDERED STRONG AT
THIS POINT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST AS THE LINE IS BREAKING APART NEAR THE
MISSOURI. FOR THIS REASON LOWERED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
A BIT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AROUND 30 MPH
OVER EASTERN MONTANA. IF THIS LINE MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE
AND TRAJECTORY...IT SHOULD CROSS THE MT/ND BORDER RIGHT AT
MIDNIGHT CDT...OR 11 PM MDT. AS OF THIS WRITING...THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS LINE IS THE ONLY PART GENERATING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STORMS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
ARE BECOMING RIGHT-MOVERS AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...SHOULD
ARC INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER EXTREME WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 05Z...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHED POPS AFTER 07Z AS THE
LINE IS PROGGED TO LOSE STEAM AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO GET A SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WIND REPORT WITH THESE
STORMS. HIGHLIGHTED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINING
SOUTHWEST OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ARE KEEPING THE LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AT BEST.
THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WANE THIS
EVENING.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THE LATEST HRRR PROGS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
MT/ND BORDER. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
AT MAINTAINING THIS CONVECTION WHILE THE GFS/GEM ONLY INCREASE
POPS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING WEST. HOWEVER...CANNOT
IGNORE THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS COMPLETELY FIZZLING OUT THIS
CONVECTION WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT TRENDS AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. AS OF 2 PM CDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BEST INSTABILITY LIES ACROSS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE WITH LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT INDICATIVE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SO FAR
TODAY. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL HAIL CAPE ALSO A BIT MARGINAL. SO
CURRENT CONCERNS LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR THE
EVENING WHICH WILL BE A FRINGE AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER FAIRLY SHALLOW
AND MAINLY FORWARD MOVING MCS`S ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN 1 TO 3 HOURS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHOULD BE BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. CONTINUED COOL PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TYPICAL FOR JUNE CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH THE BELT OF WESTERLIES MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG TO SEVERE) WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DECENT INSTABILITY IS
DEPICTED BY GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR STILL LOOKS MINIMAL AT OR
BELOW 30KTS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.
A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA...WHILE WE REMAIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP A RISK OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING SO
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES
IF ANY.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ENDING PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S.
WE REMAIN COOL (HIGHS 65-75) AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
EASTERN MONTANA COULD IMPACT KISN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IMPACTING KDIK BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AROUND 18Z
AT KDIK...KISN...KBIS...AND KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
203 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT FROM PENNSYLVANIA...WESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY...FINALLY SINKING SOUTH OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BULK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SE WV ARE WEAKENING ALONG A THETA-E
RIDGE. BEST INSTABILITY LIES WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF LEXINGTON KY.
APPEARS THE 00Z CMC/LATEST RAP HANDLING THINGS WELL...AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE AS FAR EAST AS THE NC MTNS TO WV/VA STATE
LINE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT THICKER CS SHIFTING SOUTH OUT OF THE
AREA WITH MORE SCT-BKN LOW AND MID CLOUDS OVER WV. SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WITH PC-BKN SKIES IN
THE FAR WEST. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE VALLEYS. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO OTHER WX ELEMENTS.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE MID WEST. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD
BOOST OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAIN FOCUS WILL BE A MORE ORGANIZED MCS
WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX
WITH MOST LIKELY TIMING OF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY OPTIMUM TIMING FOR SEVERE. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE AMONG MODELS AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF AN MCS WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
OH VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OR EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. SPC
MAINTAINING AN ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK FOR THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING INTO
OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z THU. SOME SEVERE WX PARAMETERS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING AN MCS OR SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LIMITED DUE
PARTLY TO THE PASSAGE AT NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING. MAINTAINED LIKELY
OR HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW MUCH THE OH VALLEY MCS
ACTUALLY HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND AT NIGHT. A
LOCAL STUDY OF OVER 50 MOUNTAIN CROSSING MESOSCALE SYSTEMS HAS SHOWN
THAT THE CHANCE OF SUCCESSFUL (I.E. REMAINING SEVERE) PASSAGE IS
CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED AT NIGHT OWING PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. BUT THAT IS NOT IN ITSELF A CONCLUSIVE FACTOR.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THURSDAY MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EITHER WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE WESTERLY
AND FALLING DEWPOINTS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
TOWARD THE COAST WHERE WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY TO RECOVER. THIS IS DEPICTED BY DAY 3 SEVERE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC. PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO FALL VICTIM TO THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MCS WITH HEAVIEST RAIN ALSO EXEPCTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON IN THE OH
VALLEY. ENOUGH ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN WITH DECAYING MCS FOR UP TO A
HALF-INCH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OR SO IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA OF COURSE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS MAY SEE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
PUSHING EAST AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND MILD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY JUN CLIMO..UPPER 70S
FAR WEST AND MID-80S EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
WILL LIFT NORTH PULLING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AGAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT WEDNESDAY..
AMD NOT SKED ADDED BACK TO KLYH DUE TO NO TRANSMISSION OF OBS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FOG FORMING AT
BCB/LWB...AND BLF. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT ACROSS THE BLF TERMINAL
WHICH WILL MOISTEN UP THE SFC. BLF ACTUALLY COULD SEE MORE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS THAN LWB...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
THAT. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT BLF WILL AT LEAST DROP TO IFR AT TIMES
BETWEEN 11-13Z...WITH BOTH FOG/LOW CLOUDS WHILE BCB/LWB WILL BE
DEALING MORE WITH FOG AND MVFR TO HIGH END IFR VSBYS TOWARD DAWN.
ANY FOG CLEARS UP AFTER 12Z. OVERALL MODELS SHOW VARIANCE WITH
TODAYS FORECAST. THE 00Z CANADIAN SEEMED TO BE HANDLING UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AND SFC PATTERN WELL. WILL SEE MAINLY VFR TODAY...BUT
LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THINK WITH A LEE TROUGH AND BACKING FLOW MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACTAULLY MAY OCCUR EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. SO HAVE VCTS IN AT
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BLF/LWB. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SE WV
AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND MODEL VARY ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION
OF THIS FEATURE WITH SOME FAVORING A SPLIT OVER OUR AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING HIGHER THAT AT LEAST BLF/LWB COULD SEE
STRONG STORMS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH MODELS SPEEDING UP THE TIMING OF FROPA
TO THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE STORMS EXPECT SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
LOOKS LIKE BY THURSDAY NIGHT BEST THREAT OF CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH
OF US WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. ASIDE FROM
POTENTIAL FOG LATE NIGHT FOG EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SUB VFR WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LYNCHBURG ASOS HAVE STOPPED TRANSMITTING
ONCE AGAIN AS OF 02Z WED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...DS/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
348 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WAS FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION. THE 04.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE WAY TOO FAR
NORTH AND TOO HEAVY WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION...THUS TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE ARW...NMM...AND RAP MODELS. THESE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH 04.18Z. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHOWERS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A
RESULT...HAVE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THIS MORNING DECREASING TO
16 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS THAN 6 KNOTS
OF WINDS UP TO 700 MB AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG
RADIATIVE COOLING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
AND MID 40S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SHELTERED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD
POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
ADAMS...JACKSON...JUNEAU...AND MONROE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DEW POINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID
50S. HOWEVER MIX DOWN TOOLS SUGGEST THAT DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THE LOWEST DEW POINTS WILL BE FOUND IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALSO LOWER CAPE
VALUES BY AT LEAST 500 J/KG...THUS...LESS INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 04.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE COLD FRONT
LOCATED TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT STRONGER WITH A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT.
AS A RESULT...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN WHAT SHOWS UP IN EITHER THE GEM OR GFS. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF GENERATES MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SINCE BOTH MODEL
SETS REMAINED CONSISTENT...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
ON SUNDAY...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BELOW 500 MB. THIS MAKES SENSE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER NEIGHBORING
SOUTHERN OFFICES WERE DEALING WITH SEVERE WEATHER OPTED TO LEAVE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 04.00Z ECMWF...GEM...AND
GFS ARE GENERALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR 20 TO 40 PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. SINCE THIS
WAS A NEW TREND AND THE NEIGHBORING SOUTHERN OFFICES WERE DEALING
WITH SEVERE WEATHER OPTED TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE AIRFIELDS WITH ONLY 10KFT CLOUD LAYERS
AROUND DUE TO WEATHER WEATHER DISTURBANCES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING IN THE ST CROIX AND MINNESOTA
RIVER BASINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CHIPPEWA RIVER BASIN LAST
WEEKEND...THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS ONCE AGAIN RISING. THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO FLOOD STAGE
/12 FEET/ ON SATURDAY JUNE 7TH AND THEN HOVER THERE THROUGH
TUESDAY JUNE 11TH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AT 01Z...SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND NEB
CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE SYNOPTICS SOUTHWARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH WITH THE COLD POOL AND IS NOW ALONG THE MO/IA
BORDER RUNNING DUE WEST INTO NEB. FRONTOGENESIS BAND SHIFTS IN
OVERNIGHT FROM SERN SD AND SWRN MN. THIS IS THE FORCING THAT IS
CAUSING THE RAIN ON RADARS OVER THAT AREA NOW...IN COMBINATIONWITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DYNAMICS ALOFT /QVECTOR CONVERGENCE/.
HOWEVER...THE TREND IN THE 06-12Z FRONTOGENETIC BAND HAS BEEN
REALLY SHIFTING SOUTH IN THE LATEST RAP RUNS. THE 04.18Z RAP
FORECAST PLACED THE 600MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND OVER I-90...AND THE
04.23Z RAP HAS THE BAND FROM MASON CITY IA TO SOUTH OF MADISON WI.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH DEEPENING COLD LOW-LEVELS TO THE SOUTH DUE
TO CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LIFT...BUT LOWER LEVEL
LIFT IS WORKING FURTHER SOUTH.
ENORMOUS STRATIFORM RAIN REGION ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA NORTH OF THE
SEVERE CONVECTION IS ALSO CAUSING PROBLEMS FOR GETTING ANY
INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH IN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT ABOVE THE
FRONTOGENETIC AREA PER RAP SOPUNDINGS FOR LATER TONIGHT SUGGESTS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDER CLAP MAY OCCUR /7C PER KM FROM
500-300 MB/. WILL LEAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND KEEP IT MAINLY
NERN IA AND SWRN WI.
BOTTOM LINE WAS TO TRIM THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RAIN CHANCE
SHIELD DRYING OUT THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN. KEPT NERN IA AND SWRN WI WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES
AS PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTAINED. COULD GET SOME SPRINKLES IN THE
I-90 CORRIDOR FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT AS IT SHIFTS OVER
TOWARD SUNRISE. VERY MINOR THUNDER CHANCES HAVE REMAINED IN THE
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER TAKES PLACE TO OUR SOUTH.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC AND THE GREAT LAKES...WITH BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ON THE TOP OF THIS
RIDGE...SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND IN NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. DPVA FROM THESE TWO SHORTWAVES...COMBINED WITH STRONG
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI WHERE MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXISTS PER RAP ANALYSIS...HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DRY CONDITIONS EXIST DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. SOME CIRRUS HAS
BEEN STREAMING IN AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF...AS WELL AS
FROM A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE EQUATORIAL REGION
OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. MASSIVE DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
EXISTS PER GOES DERIVED IMAGERY...DEPICTING 0.6-0.7 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TO 1.4-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA.
REGARDING AIRMASS WARMTH...A BIG DIFFERENCE EXISTS HERE TOO. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWED 925MB TEMPS OF AROUND 16C OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TO 24-30C IN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
CONGEALING INTO A BOWING MCS THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN IOWA. IN
FACT...THE SMALL BOW TRAVERSING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD END UP
BEING THE BOWING MCS. THIS IS VERY WELL AGREED UPON BY BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. FROM THIS POINT...THERE
REMAINS A SPLIT AMONGST SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...
PRIMARILY THE 03.12Z NAM AND 03.09Z SREF WHICH TAKE A FARTHER NORTH
TRACK COMPARED TO THE 03.12Z GFS/ECMWF AND MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE DEALING WITH A BOWING MCS...THE
FORECAST MOTION IS DETERMINED BY CORFIDI VECTORS...AND IN THIS CASE
THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS ARE MORE APPROPRIATE.
THESE VECTORS POINTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUGGEST A TRACK THROUGH
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL...THUS FAVORING THE MORE SOUTHERN
MODELS. THE 03.12Z HI RES ARW AT THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE CONVECTION NOW THE BEST AND ALSO TAKES EVEN MORE OF A SOUTHERN
TRACK.
NOW ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT IS LIKELY TO DROP TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT...THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS FOR A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND TO CROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-90. ALONG WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS
BAND...A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KT JET STREAK AT THE
TROPOPAUSE CROSSING WISCONSIN SHOULD HELP PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SOUTH OF I-90. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT SOUTH OF I-90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS
SUGGEST CLOUD BASES COULD BE ROOTED AT 10000 FT...WHICH MAY TEND TO
LIMIT SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY...INSTABILITY IS
FAIRLY MEAGER ABOVE 10000 FT...THUS LIGHTNING MAY BE ISOLATED AT
BEST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE GONE AFTER 12Z PER 03.12Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SOME HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA PER GFS/ECMWF. DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY
MILD. GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 50S LOOK REASONABLE. ON WEDNESDAY...
INITIAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A
BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. STILL...925MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO 16-18C BY 00Z SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...
1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP.
ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 0.5
INCH OR LESS. THERE ARE SOME ISSUES WITH HOW COLD WE GET...
ESPECIALLY AT OUR COLD SITES WHERE AT SPARTA WI THE MAV IS 36
COMPARED TO 45 OFF THE MET. THE DIFFERENCE IS TIED TO THE SPEED OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SPREADING CLOUDS
TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE 03.12Z NAM BRINGS PRECIPITABLE
WATER BACK UP TOWARDS 1 INCH AT 12Z...REFLECTIVE OF THESE CLOUDS.
FOR NOW HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE MAV AS THE NAM SCENARIO APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER AMONGST MOST GUIDANCE. FOR NOW LEFT OUT A FROST
MENTION SINCE DID NOT GO 100 PERCENT COLD AS THE MAV...BUT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR CENTRAL WI IN LATER FORECASTS.
2. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS A RESULT OF BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN ANY OTHER MODEL.
ALL OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE LEANED THAT WAY.
3. THE WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION. ONE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY...AND A SECOND BEING A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH MN AND WI ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW THESE TWO INTERACT...PRIMARILY WITH
THE 03.00Z/03.12Z ECMWF RUNS MUCH MORE BULLISH SPREADING SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...COMPARED TO THE 03.12Z
GFS/CANADIAN WHICH ARE DRIER. FOR NOW FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS AND
GIVEN THE GENERALLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF...KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UP IN THE 30-60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE CONCERNS STILL SEEM MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A TREND
FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT QUICKER FOR SUNDAY...THUS HAVE LOWER
CHANCES BETWEEN 20-30 THEN. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 8C.
4. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY INCREASES...BUT
THERE IS A GENERAL IDEA FOR RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. EXACT TIMING VARIES...BUT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY
FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE AIRFIELDS WITH ONLY 10KFT CLOUD LAYERS
AROUND DUE TO WEATHER WEATHER DISTURBANCES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
WEEK...THUS THE WARNING CONTINUES THERE.
REGARDING THE TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI...THE ONLY OTHER FLOOD
WARNINGS THAT WERE PRESENT WERE ALONG THE KICKAPOO AND THESE HAVE
NOW BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1131 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA AND NONE MORE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED FOR THIS AS WELL AS FOR CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS. SHOULD STILL SEE AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE FOG MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS OR
SO...WITH THE BEST RADAR COVERAGE SO FAR OVR CARBON/ALBANY
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY HIGH-BASED AND HAS PRODUCED LITTLE
OR NO RAINFALL AS SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS UNDOUBTEDLY ARE PRODUCING WINDS GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE WELL-DEFINED
DRYLINE HAD REACHED KIMBALL AND EXTENDED NORTHWEST TOWARDS
DOUGLAS. CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS MOSTLY DEVELOPED ON THE DRY-SIDE
OF THIS DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH DID HAVE AN UPDRAFT GO UP EAST OF THE
THE DRYLINE...WHICH WAS UNABLE TO BE SUSTAINED. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRY PUNCH ASSOCIATED WITH A H3 JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NEBRASKA AS WELL AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING
ACROSS WYOMING. THE AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL CONDUCIVE
TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. AT 19Z...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS TONGUE OF 2000 J/KG
MLCAPE EXTENDING BACK TO NR THE WY/NE STATELINE. THERE CONTINUED
TO BE HOWEVER SOME WEAK MLCIN OF AROUND 20 J/KG IN THIS AREA
TOO...LIKELY DELAYING SOME THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60+ KNOTS WILL AID ORGANIZATION. LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOW WITH STORMS
PUSHING EAST OF THE CWFA BY AROUND 6 PM...WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION OVR THE PANHANDLE AS WELL LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED
IT INTO THE FORECAST.
FLOW BACKS QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE MAINLY OVR THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PROGD SBCAPES FLARING TO 1000-1500
J/KG. 0-6 KM WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY...PROGD TO BE AROUND
50 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GET
SEVERE CONVECTION GOING. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MULTI-CELL
CLUSTER BY LATER AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH EAST TOWARDS THE
SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA IN THE PROGRESS PATTERN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
NO BIG CHANGES THIS PACKAGE FROM WHAT WE INHERITED ON THE MORNING
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST. 12Z GFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE ADVERTISING A MESSY UPPER PATTERN WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER TROUGH SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN THEY SHIFT THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST GOING INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA...BUT HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON BRINGING IT THROUGH UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO OUR EAST. THE
ECMWF NOW HAS A STRONGER SIGNAL IN DEPICTING A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWER TEMPS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS OUR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL LIKELY GET KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 60S UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE WE CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS ADVERTISED ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO LOW END POPS WERE LEFT IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT CHEYENNE AND OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...OTHERWISE VFR.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALIZED MVFR...
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE. FEWER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO LESS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND WILL PRODUCE A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND
LARAMIE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER STAGES HAVE CRESTED
AND ARE FORECASTED TO RECEDE. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
SO NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOWMELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RE
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GARMON
HYDROLOGY...RUBIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
919 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* -RA ENDING ARND 16Z.
* E TO NE WINDS...POSSIBLE GUSTS DEVELOPING IN AFTN.
* MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS PSBL THIS MORNING AND MAY LINGER INTO
THIS AFTN.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT RAIN IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END AND EXPECTING TO BE DRY
BY MID MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH THE RAIN BUT NOT
SURE HOW FAR EAST OR HOW WIDESPREAD THE LOW CIGS WILL BE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM BACK
INTO THE TAFS. ALSO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THEY WILL
LAST.
EAST WINDS BEGIN GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI PASSES OVER CENTRAL IL
THIS AFTN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. AS SUCH NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -RA...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHEN -RA
WILL END.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FORMING AND HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST
INTO THIS AFTN.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MORNING WIND FORECAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE/BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA BCMG SCHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
HEADLINES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA...MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS OVER KANSAS AND IT WILL FILL AS
IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRAVELS...THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATER. KEPT EAST WINDS
15-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS TURN NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS THEN
SLOWLY BACK TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WITH THE OPTIONS BEING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY WINDS
TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS LOW AND WE RETURN TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
641 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* -RA ENDING BY 15Z.
* E TO NE WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT TODAY.
* MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS PSBL THIS MORNING AND MAY LINGER INTO
THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT RAIN IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END AND EXPECTING TO BE DRY
BY MID MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH THE RAIN BUT NOT
SURE HOW FAR EAST OR HOW WIDESPREAD THE LOW CIGS WILL BE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM BACK
INTO THE TAFS. ALSO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THEY WILL
LAST.
EAST WINDS BEGIN GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI PASSES OVER CENTRAL IL
THIS AFTN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. AS SUCH NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -RA...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHEN -RA
WILL END.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FORMING AND HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST
INTO THIS AFTN.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MORNING WIND FORECAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA BCMG SCHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
HEADLINES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA...MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS OVER KANSAS AND IT WILL FILL AS
IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRAVELS...THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATER. KEPT EAST WINDS
15-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS TURN NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS THEN
SLOWLY BACK TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WITH THE OPTIONS BEING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY WINDS
TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS LOW AND WE RETURN TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1046 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND STRATIFORM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY SEVERELY INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE INDY METRO
TODAY...LEAVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE MORE LIKELY
FOCUS FOR SEVERE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTH AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREAS OF OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS WHERE MORE SUN APPEARS
LIKELY. IN ANY CASE...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH THE MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS FLOOD THREAT. THIS THREAT WILL
RAPIDLY WANE THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA AND DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD WELL OUT OF THE REGION...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
WSR 88D SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WITH THE BACK EDGE EAST OF ATTICA TO
ROCKVILLE TO LINTON TO VINCENNES AS OF 1030 AM EDT. LOW PRESSURE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS NEAR CARROLLTON. RADAR
MOSAIC IS SHOWING SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT NORTHEAST OF THE LOW OVER
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AS WELL AS A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SHORT TERM MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN/TSTORMS MOVING EAST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY AROUND 18Z BUT THEN SOME SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS WELL
AS SOME DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW. EARLIER THINKING
ABOUT DEBRIS CLOUDS INHIBITING DESTABILIZATION LOOKS GOOD...AND
CURRENTLY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA.
THIS COULD KEEP THE MAIN SEVERE RISK SOUTH OF THE AREA OR JUST UP
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL STILL
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPDATE ADDED
TIMING TO POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND RELEGATED HIGHEST POPS
TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND STRATIFORM PRECIP IS LIKELY TO BE MORE
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD...ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE INDY METRO...THIS
WILL SEVERELY HAMPER DESTABILIZATION AND THUS REDUCE SEVERE THREAT
TODAY...AND SHIFTING OF FOCUS IN SPC DAY ONE TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA AND SOUTHWARD IS REASONABLE AND EXPECTED.
MAY SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY LATE MORNING AS INITIAL STORMS WANE
SOMEWHAT...AND THIS MAY ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AS
BREAKS OPEN IN THE CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INTENSIFIES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AMPLE IF NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...AND OVERALL INSTABILITY AGAIN AMPLE
IF NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...A DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL DOMINATE...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR STILL
REMAINS AT LEAST MODERATELY SUPPORTIVE AND A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
WHEN STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARILY DISCRETE AND MAY
ENCOUNTER BOTH THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND ENHANCED HELICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPEAR TO BE A BIT OVERDONE
COMPARED TO 00Z RAOBS...BUT EVEN TRUNCATING THESE VALUES A
BIT...STILL SHOULD SEE VALUES PUSHING 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL...OR
NEARING PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER CLIMATOLOGY.
THUS...COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 12-13KFT...FLOODING THREAT REMAINS HIGH ON THE LIST...AND
DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DOES INCLUDE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE EXCEEDENCE. FORTUNATELY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD AND SEVERE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
STORMS WILL QUICKLY BE EXITING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT THE AREA TO BE DRY BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
ON TEMPS...BLEND OF GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE WITH A FEW TWEAKS
UPWARD ON MAXES FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE RESIDES IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PULLS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION. MODEL VARIANCE DOES
EXIST REGARDING TIMING AND SPECIFIC TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN COMMITTING TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK AS THE WAVE DEPARTS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES.
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS EXTENDED
MODELS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND TIMING OF
WAVES ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ANY OF THESE UPPER WAVES LIKELY
TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONT
IS DRAWN BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE OF
THESE WAVES PASSES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR 041200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
VERY WET AND MESSY PERIOD AS MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST IL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL IN THROUGH 17Z. TRIED TO UPDATE ALL
TAF SITES TO CONVEY THAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO IFR
TERRITORY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAPID UPDATE MODELS SHOW THAT
THERE SHOULD BE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FOR KBMG THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY DAYTIME HEATING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THINK THAT
WE WILL BE GOING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE IMPACTS
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION...BUT SUSPECT FOCUS FOR RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WHERE AIRMASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. HRRR AGREES WITH
THIS THINKING AND HAVE TAILORED THE TAFS TOWARDS THIS IDEA. WILL
CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH GREATER
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE FELT AT KBMG AND POSSIBLY AT KHUF/KIND.
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.
STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TAKING OVER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS OFF TO THE
SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS THIS
EVENING WITH SOME FOG AS WELL. AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ON
N/NE WINDS LATE TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD/CP
NEAR TERM...NIELD/CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/DWM
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1010 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE STATE LINE
WESTWARD TO THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING...LIKELY WEAKENING WITH TIME. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
STRATIFORM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY SEVERELY
INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE INDY
METRO TODAY...LEAVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE MORE
LIKELY FOCUS FOR SEVERE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTH AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREAS OF OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS WHERE MORE SUN
APPEARS LIKELY. IN ANY CASE...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH THE MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS FLOOD THREAT. THIS THREAT WILL
RAPIDLY WANE THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA AND DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD WELL OUT OF THE REGION...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE
MIDST OF A CONSOLIDATION BUT ALSO A WEAKENING...AS LIGHTNING
COUNTS HAVE FALLEN DRAMATICALLY AND CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO
WARM STEADILY...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING VERY SOON IN
THE WEST/NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
STRATIFORM PRECIP IS LIKELY TO BE MORE PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD...ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE INDY METRO...THIS WILL SEVERELY
HAMPER DESTABILIZATION AND THUS REDUCE SEVERE THREAT TODAY...AND
SHIFTING OF FOCUS IN SPC DAY ONE TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
AND SOUTHWARD IS REASONABLE AND EXPECTED.
MAY SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY LATE MORNING AS INITIAL STORMS WANE
SOMEWHAT...AND THIS MAY ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AS
BREAKS OPEN IN THE CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INTENSIFIES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AMPLE IF NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...AND OVERALL INSTABILITY AGAIN AMPLE
IF NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...A DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL DOMINATE...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR STILL
REMAINS AT LEAST MODERATELY SUPPORTIVE AND A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
WHEN STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARILY DISCRETE AND MAY
ENCOUNTER BOTH THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND ENHANCED HELICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPEAR TO BE A BIT OVERDONE
COMPARED TO 00Z RAOBS...BUT EVEN TRUNCATING THESE VALUES A
BIT...STILL SHOULD SEE VALUES PUSHING 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL...OR
NEARING PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER CLIMATOLOGY.
THUS...COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 12-13KFT...FLOODING THREAT REMAINS HIGH ON THE LIST...AND
DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DOES INCLUDE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE EXCEEDENCE. FORTUNATELY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD AND SEVERE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
STORMS WILL QUICKLY BE EXITING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT THE AREA TO BE DRY BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
ON TEMPS...BLEND OF GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE WITH A FEW TWEAKS
UPWARD ON MAXES FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE RESIDES IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PULLS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION. MODEL VARIANCE DOES
EXIST REGARDING TIMING AND SPECIFIC TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN COMMITTING TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK AS THE WAVE DEPARTS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES.
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS EXTENDED
MODELS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND TIMING OF
WAVES ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ANY OF THESE UPPER WAVES LIKELY
TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONT
IS DRAWN BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE OF
THESE WAVES PASSES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR 041200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
VERY WET AND MESSY PERIOD AS MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST IL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL IN THROUGH 17Z. TRIED TO UPDATE ALL
TAF SITES TO CONVEY THAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO IFR
TERRITORY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAPID UPDATE MODELS SHOW THAT
THERE SHOULD BE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FOR KBMG THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY DAYTIME HEATING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THINK THAT
WE WILL BE GOING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE IMPACTS
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION...BUT SUSPECT FOCUS FOR RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WHERE AIRMASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. HRRR AGREES WITH
THIS THINKING AND HAVE TAILORED THE TAFS TOWARDS THIS IDEA. WILL
CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH GREATER
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE FELT AT KBMG AND POSSIBLY AT KHUF/KIND.
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.
STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TAKING OVER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS OFF TO THE
SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS THIS
EVENING WITH SOME FOG AS WELL. AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ON
N/NE WINDS LATE TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/DWM
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE STATE LINE
WESTWARD TO THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING...LIKELY WEAKENING WITH TIME. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
STRATIFORM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY SEVERELY
INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE INDY
METRO TODAY...LEAVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE MORE
LIKELY FOCUS FOR SEVERE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTH AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREAS OF OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS WHERE MORE SUN
APPEARS LIKELY. IN ANY CASE...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH THE MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS FLOOD THREAT. THIS THREAT WILL
RAPIDLY WANE THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA AND DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD WELL OUT OF THE REGION...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE
MIDST OF A CONSOLIDATION BUT ALSO A WEAKENING...AS LIGHTNING
COUNTS HAVE FALLEN DRAMATICALLY AND CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO
WARM STEADILY...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING VERY SOON IN
THE WEST/NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
STRATIFORM PRECIP IS LIKELY TO BE MORE PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD...ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE INDY METRO...THIS WILL SEVERELY
HAMPER DESTABILIZATION AND THUS REDUCE SEVERE THREAT TODAY...AND
SHIFTING OF FOCUS IN SPC DAY ONE TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
AND SOUTHWARD IS REASONABLE AND EXPECTED.
MAY SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY LATE MORNING AS INITIAL STORMS WANE
SOMEWHAT...AND THIS MAY ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AS
BREAKS OPEN IN THE CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INTENSIFIES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AMPLE IF NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...AND OVERALL INSTABILITY AGAIN AMPLE
IF NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...A DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL DOMINATE...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR STILL
REMAINS AT LEAST MODERATELY SUPPORTIVE AND A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
WHEN STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARILY DISCRETE AND MAY
ENCOUNTER BOTH THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND ENHANCED HELICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPEAR TO BE A BIT OVERDONE
COMPARED TO 00Z RAOBS...BUT EVEN TRUNCATING THESE VALUES A
BIT...STILL SHOULD SEE VALUES PUSHING 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL...OR
NEARING PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER CLIMATOLOGY.
THUS...COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 12-13KFT...FLOODING THREAT REMAINS HIGH ON THE LIST...AND
DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DOES INCLUDE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE EXCEEDENCE. FORTUNATELY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD AND SEVERE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...BUT WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
STORMS WILL QUICKLY BE EXITING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT THE AREA TO BE DRY BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
ON TEMPS...BLEND OF GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE WITH A FEW TWEAKS
UPWARD ON MAXES FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE RESIDES IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PULLS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION. MODEL VARIANCE DOES
EXIST REGARDING TIMING AND SPECIFIC TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN COMMITTING TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK AS THE WAVE DEPARTS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES.
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS EXTENDED
MODELS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND TIMING OF
WAVES ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ANY OF THESE UPPER WAVES LIKELY
TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONT
IS DRAWN BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE OF
THESE WAVES PASSES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE IMPACTS
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION...BUT SUSPECT FOCUS FOR RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WHERE AIRMASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. HRRR AGREES WITH
THIS THINKING AND HAVE TAILORED THE TAFS TOWARDS THIS IDEA. WILL
CARRY VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH GREATER
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE FELT AT KBMG AND POSSIBLY AT KHUF/KIND.
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.
STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TAKING OVER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS OFF TO THE
SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS THIS
EVENING WITH SOME FOG AS WELL. AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ON
N/NE WINDS LATE TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
922 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWING ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THINGS ARE RUNNING A BIT
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BRING
THEM MORE INTO ALIGNMENT WITH CURRENT RADAR. WHILE THE DRIZZLE AND
FOG HAVE LIFTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MAINE, WEB CAMS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE IT REMAINS ACROSS DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE.
THE 07Z SATELLITE IMAGERY FORM THE GOES-E IFR PROBABILITY SHOWED
STRATUS SPREADING TO THE NORTH W/HUL TO KBHB SEEING CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST HAD SOME
FOG AS WELL. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP AND NAM THIS
MORNING PER THE SOUNDINGS. THE SREF WAS A BIT SLOW ON THE DRAW
W/BRINGING THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE INTO NE MAINE THIS MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE W/BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY W/SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS EVIDENT FROM THE OBS AND SATELLITE. THE RAP ALONG
W/THE NAM DOES SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON W/THE WESTERN AREAS SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES E. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP
SHOWED THE RAINFALL SHRINKING UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER AIR
FURTHER TO THE E AND THIS IS SHOWN WELL ON THE SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS TO BACK UP THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS TIL THE AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE W AND SW AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE THE LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIP.
AN AREA OF STEADIER RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A TROF AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SWING ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE
LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT THE RAINFALL. DECIDED TO BRING 60%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST. ADDED FOG FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND THE COAST W/A CONTINUED SSE FLOW IN THE
LLVLS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS(QPF) BASED ON THE
LATEST 6HRLY REPORTS SHOWING LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. THEREFORE, QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
AVERAGE OF 0.5 TO .25" AREAL WIDE W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE W AND NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE LATE FRIDAY. FOR POPS WILL BLEND THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS GENERATED FROM THE
MOSG25. HAVE USED THE SUPPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
QPF FROM A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY THEN MOVE EAST
LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT PASSING
TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE SUPPER BLEND TO
POPULATE ALL GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO SPREAD ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING W/DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE A BIT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CIGS WILL DROP BACK TO IFR TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS W/THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF THIS TAKING SHAPE FROM KHUL SOUTHWARD INTO KBGR
AND KBHB.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. AN EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES OVER
THE WATERS W/A 10-11 SECOND PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
FORECAST OF 2-4 FOOT SWELLS AND WINDS SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT.
FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT. VBSYS ARE
ALREADY 1NM OR LESS AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
GIVEN THE LATEST SETUP W/A SSE FLOW.
SHORT TERM: WILL USE THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPPER BLEND WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT EASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY.
A NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE MARITIMES. LONG PERIOD WAVES
FROM THIS FETCH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
TO MAXIMUM OF 6 FEET/9-10 SECONDS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE
SYSTEM WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY. FOR WAVES
WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WNA/4.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
633 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWING ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: INCREASED THE RAINFALL CHANCES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS
AND WEBCAMS SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN BAR HARBOR AND
THE BANGOR REGION AS WELL AS WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SE AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. THIS AREA WAS MOVING NNE. KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG W/FOG AND SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO FIT THE LATEST OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE.
THE 07Z SATELLITE IMAGERY FORM THE GOES-E IFR PROBABILITY SHOWED
STRATUS SPREADING TO THE NORTH W/HUL TO KBHB SEEING CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST HAD SOME
FOG AS WELL. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP AND NAM THIS
MORNING PER THE SOUNDINGS. THE SREF WAS A BIT SLOW ON THE DRAW
W/BRINGING THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE INTO NE MAINE THIS MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE W/BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY W/SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS EVIDENT FROM THE OBS AND SATELLITE. THE RAP ALONG
W/THE NAM DOES SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON W/THE WESTERN AREAS SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES E. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP
SHOWED THE RAINFALL SHRINKING UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER AIR
FURTHER TO THE E AND THIS IS SHOWN WELL ON THE SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS TO BACK UP THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS TIL THE AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE W AND SW AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE THE LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIP.
AN AREA OF STEADIER RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A TROF AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SWING ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE
LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT THE RAINFALL. DECIDED TO BRING 60%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST. ADDED FOG FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND THE COAST W/A CONTINUED SSE FLOW IN THE
LLVLS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS(QPF) BASED ON THE
LATEST 6HRLY REPORTS SHOWING LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. THEREFORE, QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
AVERAGE OF 0.5 TO .25" AREAL WIDE W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE W AND NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE LATE FRIDAY. FOR POPS WILL BLEND THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS GENERATED FROM THE
MOSG25. HAVE USED THE SUPPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
QPF FROM A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY THEN MOVE EAST
LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT PASSING
TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE SUPPER BLEND TO
POPULATE ALL GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO SPREAD ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING W/DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE A BIT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CIGS WILL DROP BACK TO IFR TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS W/THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF THIS TAKING SHAPE FROM KHUL SOUTHWARD INTO KBGR
AND KBHB.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. AN EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES OVER
THE WATERS W/A 10-11 SECOND PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
FORECAST OF 2-4 FOOT SWELLS AND WINDS SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT.
FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT. VBSYS ARE
ALREADY 1NM OR LESS AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
GIVEN THE LATEST SETUP W/A SSE FLOW.
SHORT TERM: WILL USE THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPPER BLEND WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT EASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY.
A NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE MARITIMES. LONG PERIOD WAVES
FROM THIS FETCH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
TO MAXIMUM OF 6 FEET/9-10 SECONDS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE
SYSTEM WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY. FOR WAVES
WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WNA/4.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1131 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. IT
WILL PUSH AN AREA OF RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...THAT
COULD BECOME HEAVY TOWARD I-94 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 IN JUST A FEW HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE RAIN AS ONE HEADS NORTH...WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED NORTH OF A WHITEHALL TO ALMA LINE. THE
RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY...
AND 75 TO 80 BY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 75 TO 80 FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPAND HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH...INTO THE I96 CORRIDOR. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AS THE CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS REMOTE AT BEST. NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED. EXPECTING A STRATIFORM RAIN TO
PIVOT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FROM THIS MORNING INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...PER THE HRRR AND OTHER CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS LIKE TH HI-RES ARW AND THE NSSL WRF. ALL OF THESE
MODELS SHOW A PRETTY RAPID END TO THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES VIA THE
RAIN...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A VERY DYNAMIC AND COMPACT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE CWA TODAY. GOOD
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE NORTH LIKELY REMAINS DRY.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IA/MO HAS
PRODUCED OVER FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME LOCALES IN THE PAST 18
HOURS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...TOWARD SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER COMPACT IT
PACKS VERY STRONG JET DYNAMICS...WITH A STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET...ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN IA THIS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AND ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO STAY
WELL TO OUR SOUTH...THE JET DYNAMICS HEAD DIRECTLY FOR THE I-94
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LIFT
THIS PRODUCES IS OFF THE CHARTS AND IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST VALUES
THIS FORECASTER HAS SEEN IN SOME TIME.
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT CONCERNING...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
CONVECTION SLIDING ESE ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO AND TRACKING IT OVER
TIME...IT WOULD MISS SOUTHERN LOWER. BUT CAN NOT IGNORE THE JET
TRENDS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO EXPAND THE PCPN FURTHER NORTH WITH
TIME. NOT REALLY EXPECTING WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDER...THAT SHOULD
STAY MAINLY SOUTH...RATHER EXPECT A STEADY RAIN SETTING UP FROM
ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY TO ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG I-94 AND IF
WE SEE ANY TRAINING OF THE HEAVY RAIN...WE COULD REALIZE RAINFALL
TOTALS NEARING THIS VALUE. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
HOW THIS COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
NO FORECAST ISSUES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE WITH EACH
DAY. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE PATCHY FROST TOWARD HIGHWAY 10 IN THE
USUAL SHALLOW COLD AREAS...LIKE LEOTA...BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS IT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED FOR AN
ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT POOLS MOISTURE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL PICTURE IS THAT SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND EJECTS NORTHEAST...CLEARING
LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY MONDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AS AN APPARENT MCS TRACKS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STORMS STILL IN DOUBT
BUT POSSIBLE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS WELL WITH THE GFS ALMOST 24 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF.
SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT TUESDAY IS A
QUESTION MARK WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
RAIN WILL BE MOVING IN THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY 18Z. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 02Z. THE HEAVIER RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM AZO TO JXN WHERE SOME
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL PIVOT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES AS STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE IN SPOTS IN THE HEAVIEST SWATH. THE HEAVIEST SWATH
SHOULD BE ALONG A LINE FROM HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN EAST TO NEAR
JACKSON IN OUR AREA.
REGARDING ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THE HIGHEST TOTALS FROM
MONDAY/S RAIN WAS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS CALHOUN AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. EVEN WITH TODAY/S ADDITIONAL RAIN THOUGH NO HYDRO ISSUES
ARE ANTICIPATED AS IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED. THE JACKSON
RIVER GAGE SITE IS 3 FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
730 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD AS SE MICHIGAN
RESIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CORRIDOR OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION UPSTREAM. WHILE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
AREA OF RAIN TO DEVELOP LOCALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS METRO DETROIT AND IN THE VICINITY OF
PONTIAC. PREDOMINANT VFR WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH A
WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS PLAUSIBLE SHOULD A PERIOD OF STEADY
HEAVIER RAINFALL EMERGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HOLDS THROUGH THE
DAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 18Z TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 401 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING AND GENERAL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
STILL POSITIONED ACROSS SE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SUSTAIN
A DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. EXTENSIVE
CANOPY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS NOW FUNNELING ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH MULTIPLE MCS COMPLEXES NOW ANCHORED TO THE DEFINED LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL IL/IN.
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE REFLECTION AND ATTENDANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...SOME NORTHWARD FLUCTUATION
OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE IS EXPECTED AS STRONG 850 MB FLOW/NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET FORCING WORKS IN BEHIND THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOW THIS PROCESS TRANSLATES INTO THE EVENTUAL DOWNSTREAM
PROPAGATION/MAINTENANCE OF ANY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE OR
MCV REMAINS AN UNKNOWN. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A TENDENCY
FOR THE PROPAGATION VECTOR TO LEAN TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY
EXISTING TO THE SOUTH.
DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER MESOSCALE FORCING...THIS WOULD THEN LEAVE
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHATEVER MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION/FGEN CAN EMERGE AS THE ELEVATED FRONTAL SLOPE ATTEMPTS
TO ARC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. 00Z ARW MODEL AND
LATEST RUC ASSESSMENT POINT IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ASCENT BETWEEN 700-500 MB...RESULTING IN A WELL DEFINED PIVOT POINT
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THAT ESSENTIALLY BISECTS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST ITERATION OF POPS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...A TIGHTENING OF THE POP GRADIENT FROM CATEGORICAL
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ARB-DTW CORRIDOR TO LITTLE CHANCE NORTH OF I-69.
THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT FORCING ANCHORS LOWER
ON THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND/OR ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH PROVIDES
A GREATER NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND EFFECTIVE
ASCENT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAVE A BROADER AREA
OF SE MICHIGAN SIMPLY UNDER THICK MID CLOUD WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION GENERATION...AND WILL PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY LARGELY
NON-EXISTENT WITH ANY THETA-E CONTRIBUTION NEGLIGIBLE...SO PROSPECTS
FOR THUNDER EVEN NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LOOK SLIM.
THE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAP HIGHS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME FILTERED SUN IS PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS MAINLY LOWER
70S. ANY LINGERING ASCENT LEFT IN THE COLUMN WILL VACATE INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE EDGE OF
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. A CLEARING SKY AND DIMINISHING GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO APPROACH THE 40S IN THE COLDEST LOCALES.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER-WISE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH REALLY ONLY ONE SYSTEM TO CONTEND
WITH THIS WEEKEND. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ALOFT WITH THE
ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET HELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO A STRONG
RIDGE SPRAWLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE POLAR JET IS MORE
AMPLIFIED BUT ITS POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH TROUGHS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS ON OCCASION. SOUTHERN MI WILL
FIND ITSELF IN BETWEEN THE TWO JET FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN AT THE SFC. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL
HAVE A LARGE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH ITS CANADIAN
ORIGINS...850MB TEMPS AROUND 6C THURSDAY INCREASING TO 10C FRIDAY.
THURSDAY THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL TO OUR NW RESULTING IN NE FLOW OVER
THE AREA. COOLER CANADIAN AIR BLOWING OVER COOL LAKE HURON WILL
YIELD TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S...LAKE SHORE AREAS AND INLAND AREAS RESPECTIVELY. THE HIGH WILL
CENTER ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY ENDING THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW DEGREE JUMP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...WHICH IS IN
THE MID 70S. ALSO ON FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REACH THE
STATE. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY DRY WITH PWATS AROUND A HALF INCH SO
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
CHANGES BEGIN TAKING SHAPE ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE
SE ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO MI. BOTH MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH THE WARMING TREND CLIMAXING IN
THE UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT TIED TO A SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL ABSORB A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE
RESULTING PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BEING
ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT MODELS ADVERTISE MANY DIFFERENCES FROM DEGREE OF
PHASING TO AMOUNT OF FORCING ALONG THE FRONT VS THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF. WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR THE SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT DRYING US BACK OUT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A
REMNANT FRONT TODAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...MAINLY LAKE ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE...THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. LAKE HURON SHOULD MISS OUT
ON MOST OF THE RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD CLIP THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN BASIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACOMPANY THE SYSTEM
WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY DRAWING VERY NEAR THE STATE BORDER.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
612 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PAIRED WITH RAP ANALYZED 500MB
HEIGHTS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A POTENT MCS WAS EASILY
VISIBLE VIA REGIONAL RADAR SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER FROM NEBRASKA TO ILLINOIS. THIS MCS
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS IT RACES ACROSS ILLINOIS LATER
THIS MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. THE AFFECT OF THIS ON OUR WEATHER WAS
SOME EARLIER RAINFALL THAT HAD SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...BUT POPS WERE QUICKLY HACKED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS AS NEWEST HI-RES MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS MADE IT
CLEAR THE PRECIPITATION WAS GOING TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME LESS AND LESS. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW /RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING WEATHER JUST TO OUR
SOUTH/ DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BY NEAR 10 MPH. THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY STRETCHED SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN MANITOBA. ITS AFFECT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER
WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS
BOUNDARY THAT EXPLAINS THE INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN MINNESOTA JUST PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY. FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
OF YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL MEAN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FAST-
MOVING WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF JUNE.
THE FIRST OF THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS SET TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY...AT THE SAME TIME AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT /TRAILING A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN MANITOBA/ MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE THE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL MN...WITH DECLINING CHANCES WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED THE
HIGHEST POPS /60-70 PERCENT/ OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...TAPERING TO
30 PERCENT FOR THE TWIN CITIES...AND 20 PERCENT FOR WEST CENTRAL
WI.
THE NEXT WAVE WORTHY OF MENTION IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND INTERACTS WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD
FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO HAVE STALLED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WI. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN NATURE...THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED WELL TO THE
SOUTH /SOUTHERN MISSOURI/. THEREFORE THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING
RAINS IN THE CWA IS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MEAN
COOL TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DID
RETAIN 20 POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT THAT MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED.
YET ANOTHER WAVE IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE 04.00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE NOTABLY
DIFFERENT REGARDING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMPLITUDE OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 20-30 PERCENT POPS AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
VERY QUIET AVIATION PERIOD AHEAD WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH TRANSPARENT
CLOUDS EXPECTED...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. WINDS STARTING OUT VARIABLE WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED BY
MID MORNING...GENERALLY FROM THE NE TO EAST. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
30 HOURS...THE WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 8-10KTS DURING THE DAY AND
SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN SITES AGAIN TONIGHT. LIMITED
STRATOCU EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA SHOULD
NOT LAST...AND ONLY MENTION OF THIS WAS AT KEAU.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT NOT REACHING ANY TAF SITES BY TOMORROW MORNING.
KMSP...A FEW STRATOCU AROUND 5K FEET IS NOT EXPECTED TO LINGER.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WIND
TURNING MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
TOMORROW. EVEN BY 18Z TOMORROW...STILL EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO
REMAIN WEST OF MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA WEST. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1002 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH VERY WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REACHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CAROLINAS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WHICH HAS A WESTWARD EXTENSION ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND THE GULF COAST STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A HOT RIDGE ACROSS
TEXAS IS PRODUCING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR US. MORNING UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND CHS INDICATED MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A
GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO
RISE TO +17C BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INLAND FROM THE BEACHES.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED VERY GOOD AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE WITH THIS MID-MORNING UPDATE. I HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST
DEWPOINTS DOWN BY A COUPLE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM FLORENCE...MARION AND WHITEVILLE
NORTHWARD AS DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD TAP SOME OF THE DRY AIR
ALOFT AND ENTRAIN IT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DILUTING THE MOISTURE
WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR QUITE SMALL
TODAY OWING TO THE WARM DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. IF A RENEGADE SHOWER
WERE TO DEVELOP LOOK FOR THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY TO BE RESPONSIBLE.
THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS ALSO TARGET THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PEE
DEE REGION MAINLY SOUTH OF FLORENCE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
MAY REMAIN HIGHEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
APPEARS TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT.
WESTERLY (OFFSHORE) WINDS BLOWING THIS MORNING WILL DELAY THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY`S INLAND MOVEMENT. THE BEACHES SHOULD SEE WINDS
TURN ONSHORE BY NOON...BUT IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO MAKE ANY APPRECIABLE PROGRESS INLAND EXCEPT ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST WHERE THE NORTHWARD-MOVING SEABREEZE WON`T
HAVE TO FIGHT WESTERLY WINDS HEAD-ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA THEN
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCREASINGLY
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LEADING TO AN ENHANCED CHC OF
CONVECTION FOR THURS AFTN INTO THURS NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25 TO 35 KTS OUT OF THE SW AND VEERING AROUND TO
THE WEST BY THURS EVE WITH A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SFC BASED CAPE INCREASES UP TO
1500 J/KG WITH INCREASED SHEAR HEADING INTO THURS EVE AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MAY SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. WILL MAINTAIN THE GREATEST POPS LATER ON
THURSDAY INTO THURS NIGHT.
THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST BY FRI MORNING BUT WILL SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WITH VERY BROAD TROUGH PRODUCING MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH FRI. IT SHOULD MAKE IT JUST TO THE SOUTH BY FRI
AFTN BUT MAY PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY AS
PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW RIDES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REACH DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MAY SEE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER GET DISPLACED TO GA/SC BY SATURDAY BUT MAY SEE FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPS REACHING UP INTO THE
90S MOST PLACES ON THURS AHEAD OF FRONT AND REMAINING UP NEAR 90
WITH ONLY A SLOW DROP IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AS FRONT DROPS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE UP AROUND 70 THURS
NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PCP AND SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID
60S OVER NORTHERN TIER AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR MAKES ITS
WAY IN BUT NEAR 70 SC COAST FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER OR AT LEAST INCREASED
CLOUDINESS THROUGH A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REACH DOWN FROM THE NORTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND GFS SHOWS PCP
WATER VALUES DOWN CLOSER TO 1.25 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST TO THE SOUTH WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. EXPECT
SHWRS/TSTMS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
SHOULD BE CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA AND ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO KEEP CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF MORE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RUN AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE 80S. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH...DEWPOINT TEMPS SHOULD DROP ABOUT 5 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOW TO DROP INTO THE MID
60S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUES WITH
INCREASING CHC OF CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME CIRRUS
WILL STREAM OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS EARLY. DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL BEGIN FILLING IN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT TODAY...ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED INVERSION AROUND 625 MB.
THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION PCPN IN THE TAFS AS THESE UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS...WHICH SHOW LITTLE TO NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. W-SW WINDS AOB 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME S-SW 10-15 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMS AFTER 18Z AS A STRONG SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-10
KTS PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG
FORMATION DESPITE THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST. NORTH OF THIS
RIDGE WE HAVE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WITH SPEEDS CURRENTLY 10-15 KT. INTENSE SOLAR HEATING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD PUSH AIR TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS AT THE BEACHES TO
15+ DEGREES...WITH A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION INCREASING TO NEARLY 20
KT NEARSHORE. GUSTS SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
SECTIONS OF THE COAST THAT RUN NORTH-SOUTH LIKE THE GRAND STRAND AND
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET WITH A SIGNIFICANT 11-12
SECOND EASTERLY SWELL COMPONENT WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL SEA HEIGHTS MAY BUILD
TOWARD 3-4 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANGES WITH THIS MID-MORNING
UPDATE WERE MINOR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE
THURS INTO FRI AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE N-NW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
SW WINDS REACHING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
25 KNOTS NEAR SHORE IN AFTN SEABREEZE. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PUSH SEAS UP INTO SCA CRITERIA LATE THURS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 4-5 FEET EARLY
THURS TO 5-6 FEET BY LATE THURS.
COLD FRONT MAY LINGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH FRI. THIS MAY
CAUSE VARIABLE WINDS ESPECIALLY AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS ON FRI.
OVERALL EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SHIFT AROUND TO
THE N-NE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP DOWN TO 2
TO 3 FT BY FRI NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REACH DOWN INTO LOCAL
WATERS BEHIND AN ALMOST STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER GA/SC ON
SATURDAY. EXPECT NE/E WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AFTN SEA
BREEZE WILL BE ENHANCED BY ON SHORE FLOW PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS NEAR
SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1009 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION TODAY...ENDING LATE THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND IT WILL BRING A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS TO THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING WARMING CLOUD TOPS WITH DECAYING
MCS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
WE CONTINUE TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...BUT OVERALL THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND IN THE REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR OVER THE PAST HOUR.
BASED ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE SITUATED
FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OHIO ATTM AND THIS LOOSELY
CORRELATES WITH A SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION NOT NECESSARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS REMNANTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT
EFFECTS THE DECAYING MCS WILL HAVE ON THE WARM FRONT AS THE RAIN
COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH MAY DELAY THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM
FRONT HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEIR AFFECT ON SOLAR INSOLATION. BOTH THE
12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP ARE KEEPING THE BETTER ML CAPES...IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BETTER JET DYNAMICS WILL BE PIVOTING
INTO OUR ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS WILL LIKELY HELP
COMPENSATE FOR SOME OF THE LOWER INSTABILITIES.
MOST OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH IT THEN PUSHING SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE CURRENT SET UP...THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FA. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE INCREASING
JET...THINK THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET SOME BETTER INSTABILITIES INTO THE
AREA...ROTATING STORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. PWS WILL PUSH UP INTO THE 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. WHILE THE HI RES MODELS DISAGREE WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...THEY ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ONCE IT
DEVELOPS SO HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FAIRLY RAPID
TURNOFF WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. EVENING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THAT
FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY AND HELP CONTINUE TO
PUSH DRIER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING IN TO THE
50S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE ONE OF THOSE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING
MOISTURE...LIFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT/COLD FROM TANDEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT
POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO SOME TIMING ISSUES.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH PCPN COMING TO AN END
BY MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR TO LIFR FOG IS AFFECTING THE SRN TAFS WHERE THE DEWPOINTS
REMAINED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. THE FOG SHOULD BREAK
UP QUICKLY AS SUNSHINE BEGINS THE MIXING PROCESS.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS INDIANA HAS A MAINLY EASTERLY COMPONENT.
LATEST TIMING HAS IT REACHING THE WRN TAFS IN THE 13 -14Z TIME
FRAME. EXPECT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF TS AT THE TAFS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON COULD POSSIBLY BE SEVERE. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL RACE E TONIGHT FINALLY DRAGGING THE FRONT
THRU THE TAFS WHILE BRINGING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP POST FRONTAL TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
917 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT FROM PENNSYLVANIA...WESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY...FINALLY SINKING SOUTH OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MCS MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM WITH
SOME SCT CONVECTION EXTENDING SEWD INTO OUR FAR WRN ZONES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT HAVING ANY SIGNIFICANT SUCCESS HOLDING TOGETHER.
BELIEVE OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE DAY WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH RES
ARW SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF THINGS AND WILL
LEAN ON IT UNTIL LOCAL WRF AND HRRR START TO CATCH ON. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO COVER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT OTHER ELEMENTS
OF THE FORECAST LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS AFD...
BLEND OF THE 00Z CMC/GFS/ECMWF TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SOME TENDENCY TOWARD WPC FASTER SOLUTION IN THE QPF.
THE ISSUE TODAY WILL BE FIRING UP OF NEW CONVECTION. THE CMC
ESPECIALLY FAVORS SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP IN THE NEW RIVER
AND ROANOKE VALLEYS TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY NOON...THEN SHIFTING ESE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE HOWEVER APPEARS
SCATTERED AT BEST...SO NOT GOING TO HAVE HIGH CHANCE OF POPS.
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER TODAY...THEN WE START
TO FOCUS ON WHERE THE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS LOCATED
FROM NE KS TO CENTRAL IL...AND ITS EVOLUTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THESE COMPLEXES TEND TO STIR TOWARD THE HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS ALONG THE CORFIDI VECTORS. MODELS SHOW THIS WILL BE OVER KY/TN
LATER TONIGHT...BUT EASTWARD STEERING ALOFT MAY TAKE SOME TO THE MID
ATLANTIC FROM PA TO VA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS HIGHLIGHT
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WEST TO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MODELS HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THAT MODELS MAY BE SLOWER
WITH OVERALL SPEED OF SYSTEM BY 3-6 HRS...AND WPC IS SHOWING ABOUT
A FASTER SOLUTION. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE ENTERING SE WV EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
SHIFTING IT SOUTH TO THE NC MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS EAST OF BLUE RIDGE FROM ROANOKE SOUTH TO THE NC
FOOTHILLS. KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH FROM NORTH OF ROANOKE
EAST TO LYH...DUE TO THE FACT THAT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY
SINK ANY CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NRN VA SOUTH INTO THIS AREA
LATE.
OVERALL WILL BE WORRIED ABOUT A WIND THREAT IN THE WEST. THINK
TIMING BEING AT NIGHT FAVORS LESS INSTABILITY...SO THE THREAT
SHRINKS EAST OF THE WV/FAR SW VA AND NW NC MTNS.
IF THE MCS TRACKS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST HOLDING TOGETHER...A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR. WPC ALSO HAS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEST INTO KY. WILL HIGHLIGHT HVY
RAIN/ISOLATE FLOODING THREAT IN THE HWO FOR OUR WRN MTN COUNTIES.
GIVEN LACK OF GOOD RAINFALL LATELY...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO NOT
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH OUR
WFO NEIGHBORS.
FOR TEMPS...THEY TOO WILL BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FASTER THAN MODELS SUGGEST COULD IMPACT HIGH
TEMPS. KEPT THE COURSE OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT RAISED A DEGREE OR
TWO EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY WARM/HOT AND
HUMID DAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 90 SOUTHEAST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.
TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AROUND TEMPS WILL NOT FALL TOO
FAR...BUT SHOULD REACH CLOSER TO DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WHILE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF A DECAYING MCS REMAINS IN QUESTION...
BELIEVE THAT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WILL HAVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. THE SYSTEM`S ARRIVAL WILL
LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS/
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE/SE WEST VIRGINIA...IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS. AS
CONVECTION SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...MAY MAINTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS...BUT
EXPECT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. BY AFTERNOON...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ENOUGH THAT
WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460.
ASSUMING THERE ARE NO CHANGES IN THE TIMING OR THE TRACK OF THE
MCS...THE COMBINATION OF SUN AND WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
WHILE MID AND UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH...BUT EXPECT THAT THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MORE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING EAST
ALONG THE FRONT TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE REMAINS QUITE A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...WITH
THE NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CONVECTION TO OUR AREA...
WHILE THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF MODELS ALL KEEP THE CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH. INCLINED TO FOLLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...
BUT WONT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT IT EITHER...AND THEREFORE WILL GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO OUR AREA.
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP
KEEP INSTABILITY LIMITED. AS CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES DURING THE
EVENING...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S EAST
AND THE LOW 80S/UPPER 70S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTH PULLING
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AGAIN WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY..
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT
ACROSS THE BLF TERMINAL.
STILL DISCREPANCIES IN TERMS OF TODAYS FORECAST. LOOKING AT MAINLY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE SO OVERALL NOT SEEING ANY TERMINALS
GETTING PREDOMINANT SHRA/TSRA FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
THEREFORE ADDED VCTS. TOOK IT OUT IN LYH/DAN...THINKING COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS.
STILL LOOKING AT ORGANIZED MCS TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH INTO THE OH
VALLEY INTO TN...AND ALSO SW VA/NW NC OVERNIGHT. MODELS PAINTING
LWB/BLF WITH BEST THREAT OF STORMS WITH LESS CHANCE IN THE LYH/DAN
CORRIDOR. WITH THESE STORMS EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SPEEDING UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...NOW LOOKING AT LESS COVERAGE
OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. MAINLY VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM
POTENTIAL FOG LATE NIGHT FOG EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SUB VFR WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OBSERVATIONS ARE AGAIN COMING IN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...DS/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
635 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WAS FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION. THE 04.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE WAY TOO FAR
NORTH AND TOO HEAVY WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION...THUS TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE ARW...NMM...AND RAP MODELS. THESE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH 04.18Z. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHOWERS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A
RESULT...HAVE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THIS MORNING DECREASING TO
16 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS THAN 6 KNOTS
OF WINDS UP TO 700 MB AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG
RADIATIVE COOLING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
AND MID 40S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SHELTERED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD
POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
ADAMS...JACKSON...JUNEAU...AND MONROE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DEW POINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID
50S. HOWEVER MIX DOWN TOOLS SUGGEST THAT DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THE LOWEST DEW POINTS WILL BE FOUND IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALSO LOWER CAPE
VALUES BY AT LEAST 500 J/KG...THUS...LESS INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 04.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE COLD FRONT
LOCATED TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT STRONGER WITH A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT.
AS A RESULT...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN WHAT SHOWS UP IN EITHER THE GEM OR GFS. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF GENERATES MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SINCE BOTH MODEL
SETS REMAINED CONSISTENT...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
ON SUNDAY...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BELOW 500 MB. THIS MAKES SENSE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER NEIGHBORING
SOUTHERN OFFICES WERE DEALING WITH SEVERE WEATHER OPTED TO LEAVE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 04.00Z ECMWF...GEM...AND
GFS ARE GENERALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR 20 TO 40 PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. SINCE THIS
WAS A NEW TREND AND THE NEIGHBORING SOUTHERN OFFICES WERE DEALING
WITH SEVERE WEATHER OPTED TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...STILL SEEING SOME
HIGH BASED SPRINKLES FROM WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND BROAD LIFT AS WEAK
IMPULSE UPSTREAM STILL APPROACHING. VFR CEILINGS BEING REPORTED...
WHICH SHOULD CLEAR THIS MORNING. SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER COULD REFORM DURING DAY WITH LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING THAT...
BUT A GENERAL DRY AND CLEARING TREND IS PREDICTED WITH VFR
CONTINUING.
SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT WILL ALSO MAKE FOR QUIET CONDITIONS BUT COULD
SEE SOME POCKETS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY ON WISCONSIN SIDE. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING IN THE ST CROIX AND MINNESOTA
RIVER BASINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CHIPPEWA RIVER BASIN LAST
WEEKEND...THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS ONCE AGAIN RISING. THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO FLOOD STAGE
/12 FEET/ ON SATURDAY JUNE 7TH AND THEN HOVER THERE THROUGH
TUESDAY JUNE 11TH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
230 PM PDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED
ON THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
WARMEST VALUES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S IN
WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN THE SIERRA. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO BRING INSTABILITY TO THE SIERRA.
FOR THIS EVENING, CONVECTION WILL REMAINED CAPPED WITH ONLY
CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS OVER MONO
COUNTY AT BEST. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE SHOWING THIS AS WELL, SO WE
HAVE PULLED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENING.
BY THURSDAY, A POTENTIAL VORTICITY WAVE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY
AREA AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL SIERRA. THIS WILL BRING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING TO THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING, HELPING TO GET
DEEPER CONVECTION GOING OVER THE SIERRA CREST. LATEST NAM/GFS ARE
BOTH SHOWING THIS TREND, AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH INTO THE TAHOE BASIN DUE TO THE ELEVATED
FORCING. WE MAY NEED TO DRAG THE STORM CHANCES FURTHER NORTH INTO
LASSEN COUNTY AS WELL, ALTHOUGH ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING THIS
NORTHERN EXTENT.
WEAK AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WINDS MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO PUSH ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EAST OF THE CREST AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WESTERN NEVADA SIERRA FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW, ALTHOUGH WITH INVERTED-V MODEL SOUNDINGS (DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER) SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MAIN
STORM CORES WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OUTSIDE THE CORES. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WHENEVER WE SEE THESE DRY
LOW LEVELS IN A CONVECTIVE ATMOSPHERE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS WILL
BE GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA SOUTH
OF LAKE TAHOE AND INTO THE PINE NUT MOUNTAINS EAST OF MINDEN-
GARDNERVILLE. HOON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY, MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE CREST OF THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY. FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CA/NV. THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. AS SUCH, THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS A BIT OF A BROAD BRUSH CALLING FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE SIERRA AND MOST OF WESTERN NEVADA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EXITING TUESDAY BUT MODELS HOLD ON
TO SOME INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NV FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. DESPITE THE TROUGH PASSAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR JET
STREAM TO DIP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE DAYTIME ZEPHYR AND BRING POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. JCM
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SIERRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA WITH GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS. THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A STORM TO MOVE OVER
SIERRA AIRFIELDS INCLUDING KMMH...KTVL...AND KTRK. THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR A STORM TO MOVE OVER SIERRA FRONT AIRFIELDS INCLUDING
KRNO AND KCXP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOWS FROM THESE
STORMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS 35-45 KTS. JCM
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1056 AM PDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...REMOVED MENTION OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NEARBY RAOBS AND WV IMAGERY INDICATING A VERY DRY
AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA TODAY. WRF AND RAP RH PROGS INDICATING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TODAY SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 AM PDT WED JUN 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER CA TODAY
AND WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LATER
THIS WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA
COAST AND ALLOW 850/500 MB HTS AND TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE A FEW DEG TODAY AS TEMPS ARE ALREADY SEVERAL DEG WARMER
COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW
AREAS IN THE SOUTH VALLEY SUCH AS BAKERSFIELD WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WHERE TEMPS HAVE SHOWN A
LITTLE LESS WARMING IN TERMS OF 24 HR CHANGE. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SIERRA CREST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THRU FRI AS WEAK TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER CA. RIDGE WILL
MOVE INLAND BY SAT...WARMEST TEMPS REMAIN LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS OVER THE SJ VALLEY...LOWER SIERRA NEVADA
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT AREAS.
AS FOR NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER NORTHERN CA ON MONDAY AND DIG SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. MODELS DEPICT SOME WEAK UPPER LOW OR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE ONSHORE AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SOMEWHAT WEAKEN ON
SUNDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA CREST FOR BOTH SUN AND MON. BY TUE...A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...SO AM LESS CONCERNED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
SIERRA BEYOND MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN
AND RETURN TO THE E. PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO
BELIEVE TEMPS WILL MODERATE.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 06-04 105:1996 66:2011 73:1912 46:1908
KFAT 06-05 107:1981 57:1894 72:1926 48:1956
KFAT 06-06 107:1903 63:1894 75:1926 46:1954
KBFL 06-04 107:1957 70:1999 77:1960 41:1908
KBFL 06-05 108:1981 66:1933 75:1981 43:1908
KBFL 06-06 109:1903 72:1963 78:1977 42:1905
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DS
PREV DISCUSSION...BSO
SYNOPSIS...JDB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
250 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GENERALLY LOW END MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CONDS...SHUD SEE A BUMP
TO MVFR BY 21Z.
* WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE 040-060 DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS ARND 12KT.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18KT MAY OCCUR THRU 22Z.
* WINDS TURN NORTH CLOSER TO 00Z AND DECREASE AS CLOUDS THIN AND
BECOME SKC.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER A LIGHT GRADIENT HAS
ALLOWED LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN IFR CONDS
DEVELOP...HOWEVER MOST AREAS ARE HOLDING AT LOW END MVFR. TO THE
NORTH OF ORD/RFD VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO SOUTHERN WISC AIRFIELDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO OCCUR THRU 02Z. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FILTER IN WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...THIS SHUD HELP TO FURTHER ERODE
ANY LINGERING LOW/MID DECK CLOUDS BTWN 2-4Z...WITH SKC CONDS
DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ARND 3-6KT WITH SKC CONDS OVERNIGHT. THEN WITH SOME
HEATING LATE THUR MORNING...WINDS ALONG NORTHEAST IL WILL BEGIN TO
TURN NORTHEAST/EAST AND ALLOW A SLIGHT TURN TO A 070-090
DIRECATION AT ORD/MDW.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS AFT 02Z.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA BCMG SCHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS EAST...THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITING THE
LAKE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL ASSIST THE FRONT IN MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
EARLY SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS POTENTIALLY AROUND 20 KT DURING
THIS PERIOD FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE
THE STRONGEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LAKES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH.
FOR ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
TOPPING OUT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SINCE LATE THIS MORNING...
SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MARGINAL CONDITIONS EXIST...MAINLY
BETWEEN WILMETTE HARBOR AND GARY BASED ON WIND DIRECTION AND OBS
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT AM
PLANNING TO DROP SCA AND BEACH HAZARD HEADLINES WITH AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ014 UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001 UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
209 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GENERALLY LOW END MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CONDS...SHUD SEE A BUMP
TO MVFR BY 21Z.
* WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE 040-060 DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS ARND
12-15KT. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18KT MAY OCCUR THRU 22Z.
* WINDS TURN NORTH CLOSER TO 02Z AND DECREASE AS CLOUDS THIN AND
BECOME SKC.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER A LIGHT GRADIENT HAS
ALLOWED LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN IFR CONDS
DEVELOP...HOWEVER MOST AREAS ARE HOLDING AT LOW END MVFR. TO THE
NORTH OF ORD/RFD VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO SOUTHERN WISC AIRFIELDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO OCCUR THRU 02Z. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FILTER IN WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...THIS SHUD HELP TO FURTHER ERODE
ANY LINGERING LOW/MID DECK CLOUDS BTWN 2-4Z...WITH SKC CONDS
DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ARND 3-6KT WITH SKC CONDS OVERNIGHT. THEN WITH SOME
HEATING LATE THUR MORNING...WINDS ALONG NORTHEAST IL WILL BEGIN TO
TURN NORTHEAST/EAST AND ALLOW A SLIGHT TURN TO A 070-090
DIRECATION AT ORD/MDW.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF SITES REMAINING DRY.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS AFT 02Z.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA BCMG SCHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS EAST...THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITING THE
LAKE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL ASSIST THE FRONT IN MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
EARLY SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS POTENTIALLY AROUND 20 KT DURING
THIS PERIOD FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE
THE STRONGEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LAKES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH.
FOR ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
TOPPING OUT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT SINCE LATE THIS MORNING...
SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MARGINAL CONDITIONS EXIST...MAINLY
BETWEEN WILMETTE HARBOR AND GARY BASED ON WIND DIRECTION AND OBS
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT AM
PLANNING TO DROP SCA AND BEACH HAZARD HEADLINES WITH AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1258 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GENERALLY LOW END MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CONDS...SHUD SEE A BUMP
TO MVFR BY 21Z.
* WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE 040-060 DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS ARND
12-15KT. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18KT MAY OCCUR THRU 22Z.
* WINDS TURN NORTH CLOSER TO 02Z AND DECREASE AS CLOUDS THIN AND
BECOME SKC.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER A LIGHT GRADIENT HAS
ALLOWED LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN IFR CONDS
DEVELOP...HOWEVER MOST AREAS ARE HOLDING AT LOW END MVFR. TO THE
NORTH OF ORD/RFD VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO SOUTHERN WISC AIRFIELDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO OCCUR THRU 02Z. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FILTER IN WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...THIS SHUD HELP TO FURTHER ERODE
ANY LINGERING LOW/MID DECK CLOUDS BTWN 2-4Z...WITH SKC CONDS
DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ARND 3-6KT WITH SKC CONDS OVERNIGHT. THEN WITH SOME
HEATING LATE THUR MORNING...WINDS ALONG NORTHEAST IL WILL BEGIN TO
TURN NORTHEAST/EAST AND ALLOW A SLIGHT TURN TO A 070-090
DIRECATION AT ORD/MDW.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF SITES REMAINING DRY.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS AFT 02Z.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA BCMG SCHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
HEADLINES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA...MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS OVER KANSAS AND IT WILL FILL AS
IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRAVELS...THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATER. KEPT EAST WINDS
15-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS TURN NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS THEN
SLOWLY BACK TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WITH THE OPTIONS BEING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY WINDS
TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS LOW AND WE RETURN TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1108 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH T-STORMS/PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND
SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON TEMPS. DISCUSSION WILL BE A BIT ABBREVIATED THIS
MORNING DUE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE LINE OF STORMS FAR SOUTHERN CWA
DEMANDING ATTENTION.
LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SERIES OF SMALL MCV`S EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE MCS CONTINUE TO DRIVE LOCALLY MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
ONE SUCH MCV RESULTING IN RECENT BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER MCV
NEARING KUIN AT 08Z SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY SUB-SEVERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD RESULT
IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...UP TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF
VORTICITY FIELD FINALLY AND ARE OFFERING REASONABLY LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON EASTERN
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BUT AM BANKING ON SOME SLIGHT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN NORTH OF I-80...IF THAT
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO WARM.
AFTER TODAY HAVE SOME GORGEOUS WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS INLAND...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CHILLY BY JUNE STANDARDS NEAR THE LAKE. DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AND CONFIDENCE IN NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN HOW SUBSTANTIAL/LONG
LASTING ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE WITH A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY DRY AND PRETTY NICE.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* VCSH THRU 18Z.
* E TO NE WINDS...POSSIBLE GUSTS DEVELOPING IN AFTN.
* MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS PSBL THIS MORNING AND MAY LINGER INTO
THIS AFTN.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT RAIN IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END AND EXPECTING TO BE DRY
BY MID MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH THE RAIN BUT NOT
SURE HOW FAR EAST OR HOW WIDESPREAD THE LOW CIGS WILL BE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM BACK
INTO THE TAFS. ALSO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THEY WILL
LAST.
EAST WINDS BEGIN GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI PASSES OVER CENTRAL IL
THIS AFTN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. AS SUCH NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN RA/VCSH ENDING BY 18Z.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FORMING AND HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST
INTO THIS AFTN.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/GUSTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA BCMG SCHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
256 AM CDT
HEADLINES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A BROAD HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM IS OVER IOWA...MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS OVER KANSAS AND IT WILL FILL AS
IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRAVELS...THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATER. KEPT EAST WINDS
15-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS TURN NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS THEN
SLOWLY BACK TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WITH THE OPTIONS BEING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY WINDS
TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS LOW AND WE RETURN TO LIGHT FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL KS EAST ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHERN IL TO A LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AT
19Z. A WEAK TROUGH AND LAKE ENHANCED BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TRAILED
W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL IL THROUGH EASTERN IA INTO FAR SE MN. ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WERE KEEPING
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WAS ALSO TRIGGERING A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER...DRIER AIR OVER NW IL INTO EAST CENTRAL IA...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER SE IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL IL. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...WHICH WAS HELPING BUILD A 1014 MB
SURFACE HIGH DOWNSTREAM OVER UPPER MI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FOCUS AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TONIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDES EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE WEAK
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL LEND
A MORE UNIFORM E-NE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND FAVORING CLEARING SKIES. LOW LEVEL RH
FIELDS IN 18Z RAP MODEL...WHICH HAD A DECENT DEPICTION OF CLOUD
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...ADVERTISES THIS CLEARING TAKING
PLACE FROM NE TO SW...WITH SE IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL IL POSSIBLY
HANGING ON TO CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER. WITH
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CLEARING EARLIEST AND LIKELY TO SEE
DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...HAVE MINS THERE
RANGING FROM 49 AT FREEPORT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S NORTH OF I-80.
LATER CLEARING AND HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN WILL HOLD
AREAS TO THE SOUTH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR
ON LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANY FOG
POTENTIAL BELOW THRESHOLDS WORTH MENTIONING...BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.
THURSDAY...THE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.
GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOOKED REASONABLE AND WERE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DEPICT TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY WITH ONE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND THE OTHER TO THE SOUTH OF
EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS AND WILL LEAVE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
A LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WE ENJOY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING. AS
THE RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH... MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CONTINUED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND THUS HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WHICH SPLITS THIS ENERGY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE WOULD MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA
WHILE THE SECOND DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
AND WOULD LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE GFS
AND LEAVE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
WIDESPREAD STRATUS LINGERING BEHIND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAKUP OVER EASTERN
IA AND NW IL THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO CID AND MLI
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 00Z...WHILE THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR BRL TO
LOWER BACK INTO MVFR FOR A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. IF WINDS BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO FOG...AND
THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES
AT CID AND DBQ.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1240 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWING ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM NEAR ESTCOURT TO WEST
OF BANGOR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE SEEN ONE
LIGHTNING STRIKE OFF THE SOUTH MAINE COAST, SO CAN`T RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST AS ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE.
THE 07Z SATELLITE IMAGERY FORM THE GOES-E IFR PROBABILITY SHOWED
STRATUS SPREADING TO THE NORTH W/HUL TO KBHB SEEING CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST HAD SOME
FOG AS WELL. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP AND NAM THIS
MORNING PER THE SOUNDINGS. THE SREF WAS A BIT SLOW ON THE DRAW
W/BRINGING THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE INTO NE MAINE THIS MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE W/BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY W/SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS EVIDENT FROM THE OBS AND SATELLITE. THE RAP ALONG
W/THE NAM DOES SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON W/THE WESTERN AREAS SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES E. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP
SHOWED THE RAINFALL SHRINKING UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER AIR
FURTHER TO THE E AND THIS IS SHOWN WELL ON THE SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS TO BACK UP THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS TIL THE AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE W AND SW AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE THE LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIP.
AN AREA OF STEADIER RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A TROF AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SWING ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE
LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT THE RAINFALL. DECIDED TO BRING 60%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST. ADDED FOG FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND THE COAST W/A CONTINUED SSE FLOW IN THE
LLVLS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS(QPF) BASED ON THE
LATEST 6HRLY REPORTS SHOWING LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. THEREFORE, QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
AVERAGE OF 0.5 TO .25" AREAL WIDE W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE W AND NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE LATE FRIDAY. FOR POPS WILL BLEND THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS GENERATED FROM THE
MOSG25. HAVE USED THE SUPPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
QPF FROM A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY THEN MOVE EAST
LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT PASSING
TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE SUPPER BLEND TO
POPULATE ALL GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO SPREAD ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING W/DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE A BIT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CIGS WILL DROP BACK TO IFR TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS W/THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF THIS TAKING SHAPE FROM KHUL SOUTHWARD INTO KBGR
AND KBHB.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. AN EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES OVER
THE WATERS W/A 10-11 SECOND PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
FORECAST OF 2-4 FOOT SWELLS AND WINDS SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT.
FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT. VBSYS ARE
ALREADY 1NM OR LESS AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
GIVEN THE LATEST SETUP W/A SSE FLOW.
SHORT TERM: WILL USE THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPPER BLEND WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT EASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY.
A NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE MARITIMES. LONG PERIOD WAVES
FROM THIS FETCH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
TO MAXIMUM OF 6 FEET/9-10 SECONDS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE
SYSTEM WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY. FOR WAVES
WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WNA/4.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
431 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT NW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS INTO
NW ONTARIO. UPSTREAM...A TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH MONTANA.
AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH PROMINENT
LAKE BREEZES. DIURNAL CU HAD DEVELOP WELL INLAND ALONG THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE DIURNAL CU FADE...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY
MOVE THROUGH THE E HALF OF UPPER MI...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
NAM/GFS 500-300 MB RH FCST. OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN TO 0.35 TO
0.50 INCH. EXPECT MIN READINGS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY AROUND 40 INLAND. SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
FROM WATERSMEET TO IRON RIVER...AMASA AND REPUBLIC MAY SEE READINGS
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND THAT A WEAK SHRTWV MAY MOVE INTO W UPPER MI BY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FAR WEST TO PUSH ML DEWPOINTS INTO
THE LOWER 50S WITH RESULTING MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 400-800 J/KG
RANGE. SO...SOME SOME SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE REST
OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MILD/DRY DAY WITH INLAND TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE LAKE BREEZES KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM IS EXPECTED WITH JUST A COUPLE CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES TRACKS ENE BEFORE GRADUALLY
STALLING OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD...A COUPLE
SUBTLE FEATURES COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
HEATING SUPPORT. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.
THEN...A DECAYING SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...AND WITH RATHER DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO MUCH OF THE
COLUMN...LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. BEST MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 100KT UPPER
JET TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS REACHES THE WESTERN CWA. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A BIT
IN QUESTION AS MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY
LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL ACROSS THE AREA...SO ONLY MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END
TO RAIN AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
WEST HALF SHOULD END UP WITH FAIRLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH PWAT VALUES AS LOW OF 0.3 INCH ACROSS THE WEST
HALF...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWERED TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FROST...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT
TO HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LOWER TEMPS ANY FARTHER ATTM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY AND KEEP
CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO ONLY SOME
INCREASED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THEN...A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOOKS TO BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. LAKE BREEZES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN REDEVELOP
THURSDAY AT CMX AND SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
AND GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THU. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SE
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND SAT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SRLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN NRLY WINDS. HIGH PRES WILL AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY. OVERALL...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW 20KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT NW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS INTO
NW ONTARIO. UPSTREAM...A TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH MONTANA.
AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH PROMINENT
LAKE BREEZES. DIURNAL CU HAD DEVELOP WELL INLAND ALONG THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE DIURNAL CU FADE...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY
MOVE THROUGH THE E HALF OF UPPER MI...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
NAM/GFS 500-300 MB RH FCST. OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN TO 0.35 TO
0.50 INCH. EXPECT MIN READINGS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY AROUND 40 INLAND. SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
FROM WATERSMEET TO IRON RIVER...AMASA AND REPUBLIC MAY SEE READINGS
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND THAT A WEAK SHRTWV MAY MOVE INTO W UPPER MI BY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FAR WEST TO PUSH ML DEWPOINTS INTO
THE LOWER 50S WITH RESULTING MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 400-800 J/KG
RANGE. SO...SOME SOME SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE REST
OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MILD/DRY DAY WITH INLAND TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE LAKE BREEZES KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HUDSON BAY
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL EARLY ON MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
DEWPOINTS GIVEN PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. EXPECT
MIN RH/S NEAR 25 PCT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UPPER MI ON THU AND BTWN 25 TO 30 PCT ON FRIDAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
BOTH DAYS WILL LIMIT FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DESPITE THE DRY RH/S.
MODELS THEN SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DRIVING NE THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA THU INTO FRI WHILE FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY BY
SAT AND FLATTENING THE MID-UPR LVL RDG AXIS OVER THE REGION WHILE
PUSHING IT EAST OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO UPPER MI AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY FAR WEST...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PCPN FOR THE MOST PART TO BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS THE
GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND FORCING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY WEAK. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH
ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WILL MOVE THE MID-LVL TROF AXIS THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE PUSHING THE COLD FRONT AND ANY
REMAINING SHRA WELL TO THE EAST BY LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY ON MON BUT
FORCING STAYS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP OUR FCST AREA DRY. 00Z MODELS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS PREV RUNS WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM SCNTRL CANADA...SHOWING MUCH OF ITS ENERGY BEING DEFLECTED NORTH
BY BUILDING 5H RDG HGTS. IF THIS SOLN PANS OUT THE ASSOC COLD FRONT
WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR WEST AND MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL STAY DRY
ON TUE. GIVEN THIS LATEST MODEL TREND HAVE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK POPS
AND GO WITH AN DRIER FCST FOR NEXT TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. LAKE BREEZES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN REDEVELOP
THURSDAY AT CMX AND SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
AND GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THU. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SE
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND SAT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SRLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN NRLY WINDS. HIGH PRES WILL AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY. OVERALL...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW 20KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
217 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL FALL FROM PTK SOUTHWARD.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT VFR...BUT
DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE AT DTW...YIP...DET...AND PTK. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT MVFR BR TO
DEVELOP LATE AT THE DETROIT-AREA TERMINALS IF WINDS BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN TREND FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TO KEEP THE ENCROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING US TO HOLD ONTO 4-6 KNOTS
OF WIND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THOUGH...ELECTED TO KEEP P6SM
FORECAST FOR NOW.
FOR DTW...CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN ABOUT 4500 FEET AND 6000 FEET
UNTIL THE RAIN STARTS TO MOVE OUT BY 01Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH PREVAILING CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT BETWEEN 18Z
AND 04Z TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 401 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING AND GENERAL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
STILL POSITIONED ACROSS SE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SUSTAIN
A DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. EXTENSIVE
CANOPY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS NOW FUNNELING ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH MULTIPLE MCS COMPLEXES NOW ANCHORED TO THE DEFINED LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL IL/IN.
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE REFLECTION AND ATTENDANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...SOME NORTHWARD FLUCTUATION
OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE IS EXPECTED AS STRONG 850 MB FLOW/NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET FORCING WORKS IN BEHIND THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOW THIS PROCESS TRANSLATES INTO THE EVENTUAL DOWNSTREAM
PROPAGATION/MAINTENANCE OF ANY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE OR
MCV REMAINS AN UNKNOWN. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A TENDENCY
FOR THE PROPAGATION VECTOR TO LEAN TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY
EXISTING TO THE SOUTH.
DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER MESOSCALE FORCING...THIS WOULD THEN LEAVE
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHATEVER MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION/FGEN CAN EMERGE AS THE ELEVATED FRONTAL SLOPE ATTEMPTS
TO ARC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. 00Z ARW MODEL AND
LATEST RUC ASSESSMENT POINT IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ASCENT BETWEEN 700-500 MB...RESULTING IN A WELL DEFINED PIVOT POINT
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THAT ESSENTIALLY BISECTS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST ITERATION OF POPS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...A TIGHTENING OF THE POP GRADIENT FROM CATEGORICAL
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ARB-DTW CORRIDOR TO LITTLE CHANCE NORTH OF I-69.
THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT FORCING ANCHORS LOWER
ON THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND/OR ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH PROVIDES
A GREATER NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND EFFECTIVE
ASCENT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAVE A BROADER AREA
OF SE MICHIGAN SIMPLY UNDER THICK MID CLOUD WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION GENERATION...AND WILL PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY LARGELY
NON-EXISTENT WITH ANY THETA-E CONTRIBUTION NEGLIGIBLE...SO PROSPECTS
FOR THUNDER EVEN NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LOOK SLIM.
THE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAP HIGHS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME FILTERED SUN IS PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS MAINLY LOWER
70S. ANY LINGERING ASCENT LEFT IN THE COLUMN WILL VACATE INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE EDGE OF
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. A CLEARING SKY AND DIMINISHING GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO APPROACH THE 40S IN THE COLDEST LOCALES.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER-WISE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH REALLY ONLY ONE SYSTEM TO CONTEND
WITH THIS WEEKEND. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ALOFT WITH THE
ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET HELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO A STRONG
RIDGE SPRAWLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE POLAR JET IS MORE
AMPLIFIED BUT ITS POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH TROUGHS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS ON OCCASION. SOUTHERN MI WILL
FIND ITSELF IN BETWEEN THE TWO JET FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN AT THE SFC. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL
HAVE A LARGE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH ITS CANADIAN
ORIGINS...850MB TEMPS AROUND 6C THURSDAY INCREASING TO 10C FRIDAY.
THURSDAY THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL TO OUR NW RESULTING IN NE FLOW OVER
THE AREA. COOLER CANADIAN AIR BLOWING OVER COOL LAKE HURON WILL
YIELD TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S...LAKE SHORE AREAS AND INLAND AREAS RESPECTIVELY. THE HIGH WILL
CENTER ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY ENDING THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW DEGREE JUMP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...WHICH IS IN
THE MID 70S. ALSO ON FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REACH THE
STATE. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY DRY WITH PWATS AROUND A HALF INCH SO
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
CHANGES BEGIN TAKING SHAPE ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE
SE ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO MI. BOTH MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH THE WARMING TREND CLIMAXING IN
THE UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT TIED TO A SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL ABSORB A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE
RESULTING PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BEING
ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT MODELS ADVERTISE MANY DIFFERENCES FROM DEGREE OF
PHASING TO AMOUNT OF FORCING ALONG THE FRONT VS THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF. WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR THE SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT DRYING US BACK OUT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A
REMNANT FRONT TODAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...MAINLY LAKE ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE...THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. LAKE HURON SHOULD MISS OUT
ON MOST OF THE RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD CLIP THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN BASIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACOMPANY THE SYSTEM
WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY DRAWING VERY NEAR THE STATE BORDER.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
153 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. IT
WILL PUSH AN AREA OF RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...THAT
COULD BECOME HEAVY TOWARD I-94 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 IN JUST A FEW HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE RAIN AS ONE HEADS NORTH...WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED NORTH OF A WHITEHALL TO ALMA LINE. THE
RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY...
AND 75 TO 80 BY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 75 TO 80 FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPAND HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH...INTO THE I96 CORRIDOR. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AS THE CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS REMOTE AT BEST. NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED. EXPECTING A STRATIFORM RAIN TO
PIVOT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FROM THIS MORNING INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...PER THE HRRR AND OTHER CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS LIKE TH HI-RES ARW AND THE NSSL WRF. ALL OF THESE
MODELS SHOW A PRETTY RAPID END TO THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES VIA THE
RAIN...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
A VERY DYNAMIC AND COMPACT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE CWA TODAY. GOOD
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE NORTH LIKELY REMAINS DRY.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IA/MO HAS
PRODUCED OVER FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME LOCALES IN THE PAST 18
HOURS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...TOWARD SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER COMPACT IT
PACKS VERY STRONG JET DYNAMICS...WITH A STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET...ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN IA THIS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AND ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO STAY
WELL TO OUR SOUTH...THE JET DYNAMICS HEAD DIRECTLY FOR THE I-94
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LIFT
THIS PRODUCES IS OFF THE CHARTS AND IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST VALUES
THIS FORECASTER HAS SEEN IN SOME TIME.
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT CONCERNING...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
CONVECTION SLIDING ESE ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO AND TRACKING IT OVER
TIME...IT WOULD MISS SOUTHERN LOWER. BUT CAN NOT IGNORE THE JET
TRENDS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO EXPAND THE PCPN FURTHER NORTH WITH
TIME. NOT REALLY EXPECTING WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDER...THAT SHOULD
STAY MAINLY SOUTH...RATHER EXPECT A STEADY RAIN SETTING UP FROM
ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY TO ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG I-94 AND IF
WE SEE ANY TRAINING OF THE HEAVY RAIN...WE COULD REALIZE RAINFALL
TOTALS NEARING THIS VALUE. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
HOW THIS COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
NO FORECAST ISSUES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE WITH EACH
DAY. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE PATCHY FROST TOWARD HIGHWAY 10 IN THE
USUAL SHALLOW COLD AREAS...LIKE LEOTA...BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS IT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED FOR AN
ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT POOLS MOISTURE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL PICTURE IS THAT SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND EJECTS NORTHEAST...CLEARING
LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY MONDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AS AN APPARENT MCS TRACKS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STORMS STILL IN DOUBT
BUT POSSIBLE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS WELL WITH THE GFS ALMOST 24 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF.
SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT TUESDAY IS A
QUESTION MARK WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
BIGGEST POTENTIAL TO IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL BE THE FOG POSSIBILITIES FOR TONIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON IS NOW STARTING TO END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN MAINLY SOLID VFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME ENTIRELY VFR AT LOCATIONS WHEN THE RAIN ENDS. SOME
LOWER CONDITIONS IN IL AND WI COULD ROTATE IN ACROSS THE I-94
LOCATIONS BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS THERE BY 22-23Z. WE EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO SEE NO WORSE THAN MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT OF A FOG EVENT TONIGHT IS INCREASING...HOWEVER WE ARE
NOT SURE ABOUT IT OCCURRING QUITE YET. WE HAVE ADDED IFR TO ALL
LOCATIONS WITH EVEN VLIFR TO KJXN. SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING AND
WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST GROUND FROM THE RAIN
TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A TEXTBOOK CASE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH FOG...POSSIBLY BECAUSE
OF SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THE LIGHT FLOW WILL LIMIT THE DRY AIR
MOVING IN...SO WE ARE HITTING THE FOG FAIRLY HARD. ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY 14Z THU.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL PIVOT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES AS STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE IN SPOTS IN THE HEAVIEST SWATH. THE HEAVIEST SWATH
SHOULD BE ALONG A LINE FROM HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN EAST TO NEAR
JACKSON IN OUR AREA.
REGARDING ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THE HIGHEST TOTALS FROM
MONDAY/S RAIN WAS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS CALHOUN AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. EVEN WITH TODAY/S ADDITIONAL RAIN THOUGH NO HYDRO ISSUES
ARE ANTICIPATED AS IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED. THE JACKSON
RIVER GAGE SITE IS 3 FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
107 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATOION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PAIRED WITH RAP ANALYZED 500MB
HEIGHTS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A POTENT MCS WAS
EASILY VISIBLE VIA REGIONAL RADAR SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER FROM NEBRASKA TO
ILLINOIS. THIS MCS WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS IT RACES
ACROSS ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. THE AFFECT OF
THIS ON OUR WEATHER WAS SOME EARLIER RAINFALL THAT HAD SPREAD INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT POPS WERE QUICKLY HACKED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS AS NEWEST HI-RES MODEL DATA AND
RADAR TRENDS MADE IT CLEAR THE PRECIPITATION WAS GOING TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN TODAY AND THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME LESS AND
LESS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW /RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING
WEATHER JUST TO OUR SOUTH/ DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BY NEAR 10 MPH. THE NEXT
FEATURE TO WATCH IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY STRETCHED
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST TODAY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN MANITOBA. ITS AFFECT
ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IT
IS THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS BOUNDARY THAT EXPLAINS THE
INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN
MINNESOTA JUST PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY. FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL MEAN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FAST-
MOVING WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF JUNE.
THE FIRST OF THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS SET TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY...AT THE SAME TIME AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT /TRAILING A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN MANITOBA/ MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE THE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL MN...WITH DECLINING CHANCES WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED THE
HIGHEST POPS /60-70 PERCENT/ OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...TAPERING TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE TWIN CITIES...AND 20 PERCENT FOR WEST CENTRAL WI.
THE NEXT WAVE WORTHY OF MENTION IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND INTERACTS WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO HAVE STALLED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN NATURE...THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED
WELL TO THE SOUTH /SOUTHERN MISSOURI/. THEREFORE THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING RAINS IN THE CWA IS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MEAN
COOL TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DID
RETAIN 20 POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT THAT MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED.
YET ANOTHER WAVE IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE 04.00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE NOTABLY
DIFFERENT REGARDING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMPLITUDE OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 20-30 PERCENT POPS AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E WHILE A CDFNT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS SLOWLY APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCRS WITH DECKS STEADILY LOWERING...BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY CEILINGS DROPPING INTO MVFR LEVELS. -SHRA WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE MOST LIKELY SITES SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING
PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO AND UP TO 18Z TMRW AFTN BEING KAXN-KSTC.
THE REMAINING TAF SITES...PARTICULARLY KRWF-KMSP...MAY SEE PRECIP
AFTER 18Z BUT WILL NEED TO LET NEXT TAF ISSUANCE RESOLVE THIS. AS
FOR TSTMS...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSTMS ATTM BUT
GIVEN THE INCREASED INSTABILITY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ISOLD TSTMS TRY TO MAKE A RUN INTO WRN-CENTRAL MN UP TO 18Z TMRW.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM E TO S OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW WITH
SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.
KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT...BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCRS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. LOOKING FOR CEILINGS TO
REMAIN AOB 5 KFT THROUGHOUT...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FEW/SCT CU
CLOUDS TMRW AFTN. NO PRECIP XPCTD PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CHANCES ARE
IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE BY THEN SO AN ISOLD SHOWER MOVG
NEAR/OVER THE TERMINAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC SHRA/TSRA. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WIND E 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
104 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Cold front has advanced to near a Vandalia, Illinois to St. Louis
Metro area to Jefferson City line. MLCAPES to the south of the
front are already in the 2500-3000 J/kg range with deep layer
shear of 40-50kts. Would expect the southern part of the CWA to
continue to be at risk for a few severe thunderstorm this afternoon
as the atmosphere continues to destabilize as the front sinks
southward. Latest runs of the HRRR has consistently shown
scattered thunderstorms developing over the next few hours over
the southern CWA.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Large MCS with embedded line segments containing strong wind gusts
and very rainfall rates continues to drop southeastward through the
northern and western portion of our forecast area early this
morning. The IR cloud tops have begun to cool which may signal the
beginning of a slow weakening trend in the convection. No new
severe thunderstorm watches are anticipated, although there still may
be isolated severe wind gusts along with localized flooding this
morning. The gradually weakening convection should shift
southeastward through east central and southeast MO and southwest
IL early this morning, then likely shift southeast of our
forecast area by late morning as advertised by the HRRR model.
Although the actual synoptic cold front will not make it down to
central MO and southern IL until late this afternoon or early
this evening, the effective boundary will be the outflow
boundaries from this mornings convection and will be further
south. Therefore redevelopment of convection this afternoon
should be mainly across southeast MO and southwest IL. High
temperatures will be quite warm again today south of the cold
front despite the morning cloud cover.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
The cold front will drop southward into southern portions of MO
and IL tonight with convection confined to southeast MO and
southwest IL tonight along the front. A surface ridge will build
southward into northeast MO and west central IL and bring cooler
temperatures to this area. This front will push just south of our
forecast area on Thursday with cooler, slightly below normal high
temperatures forecast. With weak shortwaves moving fairly quickly
eastward through the region in nearly zonal flow along with the
frontal boundary gradually trying to lift back northward as the
surface ridge over the Great Lakes region shifts eastward into
the Ohio Valley region, the threat for convection will gradually
shift back north-northeastward through our forecast area Thursday
night and Friday. The models are relatively consistent in bringing
convection through our entire forecast area late Friday night and
Saturday as a fairly strong shortwave shifts eastward through the
region and induces a surface wave along the front which should be
across northern or central portions of MO by this time. The chance
of convection will continue on Sunday as a cold front drops
southeastward through the region Sunday afternoon and night.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014
Cold front has moved south through all of the TAF sites at this
point. Expect redevelopment of thunderstorms to stay south of the
terminals this afternoon. There could also be some MVFR ceilings
to the north of the front, though confidence is not high enough to
include them in the TAFS. Main issue will be that I expect either
low MVFR or IFR ceilings to move into the area after 06Z tonight
and linger over the area through mid morning Saturday. Have
included them in all of the TAF sites.
Specifics for KSTL:
Expect low ceilings to develop at the TAF site late tonight. There
is some possibility that they will fall into the IFR category, but
for now think that they will stay MVFR. Will show only slow
clearing tomorrow.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
345 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE TSTM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS BRUSHING WRN NEB. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
TRIGGERING THE TSTM COMPLEXES WILL OCCASIONALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS NCNTL NEB HOWEVER THIS
RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
RAIN AND OR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS NEXT
TUESDAY WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
A STORMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. NEXT WAVE IS CROSSING THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND FIRING STORMS OUT IN
WYOMING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS EVENING
AS IT DRIFTS EAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONGEAL INTO AN MCS
THAT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA/NEB WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO
USHER IN BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PRECIP WATER AN INCH
TO 1.25 INCHES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1K J/KG WILL BE AIDED
BY THE NOSE OF A 25 KT LL JET TO HELP SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY. ALL IN
ALL THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.
A SECOND WAVE OVER N CENTRAL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA. THE
MCS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IF NOT EXITING INTO KS. BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS LIKELY.
STILL HAVING A COOL AIRMASS AND WITH MORNING CLOUDS...HIGHS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TANDEM UPPER LEVEL COLD POOLS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT
NRN STREAM ENERGY THRU THE HIGH PLAINS. DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF
THESE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE WRN ZONES WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THRU THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL POSITION THE BEST RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND INTO
WYOMING. THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
PROVIDING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
KS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY TABLE SCRAPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WRN
AND NCNTL NEB AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES ARE CONCERNED.
BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
HOLDING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE 60S. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND
OF THE GFS...SREF...NAM AND ECM FOR POPS. THE GEM WAS THE EASTERN
MOST SOLN AND APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLN GIVEN THE PATTERN
FAVORING HIGH PLAINS STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE RAP MODEL GIVES INSIGHT
TO THIS BIAS AS IT IS WEST OF THE NAM SOLN FOR THE HIGH PLAINS MCS
FCST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FCST AREA ACROSS KS AND ERN COLO. THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD KEEP THE FCST AREA GENERALLY COOL
AND STABLE AT THE SFC. SO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS 5 PERCENT OR
LESS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SWRN
NEB WOULD BE THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN WY/ERN COLO AND MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A FAIRLY
DECENT NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NRN NEB SUNDAY. THE GEM
WAS WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS CHANCE OF RAIN. WINDS ALOFT RELATIVE
TO THE INSTABILITY IN THE GFS AND ECM SOLNS APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NEB.
ANOTHER PERHAPS MORE SUBSTANTIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEAR IN THE GFS AND ECM INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KT
AND THE GFS SHOWS THE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER BETWEEN 30 AND 40 WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -10C. THE ECM SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1500J/KG AND
THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...WELL BELOW
YESTERDAYS MEGA-SEVERE EVENT. STILL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY OR FEATURES ISOLATED POPS.
SOME VERY COOL AIR WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA. H700MB TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR 0C ACROSS NRN NEB SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS SUNDAY TO
THE 60S WITH LOW IN THE 40S IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER...HEIGHTS
ALOFT RISE AND MOISTURE RETURNS IN PREPARATION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON THE PESKY MVFR CIGS WILL BE LIFTING TO VFR
CONDITIONS. A DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IMPACT AT KVTN FIRST THEN KLBF SEVERAL HOURS
LATER. WILL LIKELY NEED TO HAVE TEMPO GROUPS OVERNIGHT AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS TIMING/STRENGTH BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...HOWEVER WILL
THE PERIOD STILL IN THE PLANNING SECTION WENT WITH THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF IMPACT FOR THE THUNERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
PLAN TO MONITOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS TIMING
STILL UNCERTAIN.
BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS SOME STRATUS IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AT LEAST MODELS IN AGREEMENT THERE.
LESS AGREEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB AND WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THE KVTN TERMINAL...FOR NOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
RECENT RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN
CONTINUES TO CAUSE RISES TO THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IN COLORADO.
LATEST CALCULATIONS ARE RESULTING IN RISES OF THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TO AROUND BANK FULL EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER AREA WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE PEAK FLOW. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING THE CREST TO ROSCOE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE SOUTH PLATTE AT NORTH PLATTE WILL ALSO BE SEEING A
NOTICABLE RISE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1237 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH VERY WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REACHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO
THE FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY-AFTERNOON UPDATE. THE CUMULUS FIELD IS
ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE SEABREEZE IS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW UP
IN SOUTHPORT BUT NOT YET AT MYRTLE BEACH OR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WHERE
WESTERLY (OFFSHORE) WINDS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...
THE CAROLINAS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WHICH HAS A
WESTWARD EXTENSION ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST
STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A HOT RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS IS PRODUCING A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR US. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM MHX
AND CHS INDICATED MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A GOOD DEAL OF DRY
AIR ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO
RISE TO +17C BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INLAND FROM THE BEACHES.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED VERY GOOD AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE WITH THIS MID-MORNING UPDATE. I HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST
DEWPOINTS DOWN BY A COUPLE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM FLORENCE...MARION AND WHITEVILLE
NORTHWARD AS DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD TAP SOME OF THE DRY AIR
ALOFT AND ENTRAIN IT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DILUTING THE MOISTURE
WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR QUITE SMALL
TODAY OWING TO THE WARM DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. IF A RENEGADE SHOWER
WERE TO DEVELOP LOOK FOR THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY TO BE RESPONSIBLE.
THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS ALSO TARGET THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PEE
DEE REGION MAINLY SOUTH OF FLORENCE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
MAY REMAIN HIGHEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
APPEARS TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT.
WESTERLY (OFFSHORE) WINDS BLOWING THIS MORNING WILL DELAY THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY`S INLAND MOVEMENT. THE BEACHES SHOULD SEE WINDS
TURN ONSHORE BY NOON...BUT IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO MAKE ANY APPRECIABLE PROGRESS INLAND EXCEPT ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST WHERE THE NORTHWARD-MOVING SEABREEZE WON`T
HAVE TO FIGHT WESTERLY WINDS HEAD-ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA THEN
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCREASINGLY
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LEADING TO AN ENHANCED CHC OF
CONVECTION FOR THURS AFTN INTO THURS NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25 TO 35 KTS OUT OF THE SW AND VEERING AROUND TO
THE WEST BY THURS EVE WITH A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SFC BASED CAPE INCREASES UP TO
1500 J/KG WITH INCREASED SHEAR HEADING INTO THURS EVE AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MAY SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. WILL MAINTAIN THE GREATEST POPS LATER ON
THURSDAY INTO THURS NIGHT.
THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST BY FRI MORNING BUT WILL SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WITH VERY BROAD TROUGH PRODUCING MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH FRI. IT SHOULD MAKE IT JUST TO THE SOUTH BY FRI
AFTN BUT MAY PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY AS
PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW RIDES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REACH DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MAY SEE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER GET DISPLACED TO GA/SC BY SATURDAY BUT MAY SEE FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPS REACHING UP INTO THE
90S MOST PLACES ON THURS AHEAD OF FRONT AND REMAINING UP NEAR 90
WITH ONLY A SLOW DROP IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AS FRONT DROPS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE UP AROUND 70 THURS
NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PCP AND SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID
60S OVER NORTHERN TIER AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR MAKES ITS
WAY IN BUT NEAR 70 SC COAST FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER OR AT LEAST INCREASED
CLOUDINESS THROUGH A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REACH DOWN FROM THE NORTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND GFS SHOWS PCP
WATER VALUES DOWN CLOSER TO 1.25 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST TO THE SOUTH WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. EXPECT
SHWRS/TSTMS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
SHOULD BE CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA AND ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO KEEP CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF MORE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RUN AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE 80S. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH...DEWPOINT TEMPS SHOULD DROP ABOUT 5 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOW TO DROP INTO THE MID
60S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUES WITH
INCREASING CHC OF CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 4-5KFT CU BEGINNING TO FILL IN OVER OUR CWA.
STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SHOWERS TODAY AS MID-LEVEL INVERSION AND
DRY AIR ALOFT LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. W-SW WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL
BECOME S-SW 10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST AFTER 18Z AS THE SEA BREEZE
SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE GRADIENT WILL
BECOME PINCHED TONIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...SO SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE
TAFS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS AN EARLIER PCPN EVENT ON
THURSDAY...SO HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AROUND 13Z INLAND/15Z COASTAL.
HOWEVER...THE BEST PCPN CHANCES WILL BE JUST AFTER THE VALID PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE JUST STARTING TO
BACK AROUND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR SOUTHPORT/CAPE FEAR...BUT
WESTERLY WINDS STILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. AS INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE
APPROACHING 90 LOOK FOR THE SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...
THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST. NORTH OF THIS RIDGE WE HAVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH SPEEDS
CURRENTLY 10-15 KT. INTENSE SOLAR HEATING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD PUSH AIR TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS AT THE BEACHES TO 15+
DEGREES...WITH A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION INCREASING TO NEARLY 20 KT
NEARSHORE. GUSTS SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
SECTIONS OF THE COAST THAT RUN NORTH-SOUTH LIKE THE GRAND STRAND AND
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET WITH A SIGNIFICANT 11-12
SECOND EASTERLY SWELL COMPONENT WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL SEA HEIGHTS MAY BUILD
TOWARD 3-4 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANGES WITH THIS MID-MORNING
UPDATE WERE MINOR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE
THURS INTO FRI AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE N-NW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
SW WINDS REACHING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
25 KNOTS NEAR SHORE IN AFTN SEABREEZE. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PUSH SEAS UP INTO SCA CRITERIA LATE THURS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 4-5 FEET EARLY
THURS TO 5-6 FEET BY LATE THURS.
COLD FRONT MAY LINGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH FRI. THIS MAY
CAUSE VARIABLE WINDS ESPECIALLY AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS ON FRI.
OVERALL EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SHIFT AROUND TO
THE N-NE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP DOWN TO 2
TO 3 FT BY FRI NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REACH DOWN INTO LOCAL
WATERS BEHIND AN ALMOST STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER GA/SC ON
SATURDAY. EXPECT NE/E WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AFTN SEA
BREEZE WILL BE ENHANCED BY ON SHORE FLOW PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS NEAR
SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
337 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
245 PM UPDATE...
FRESHENED UP GRIDS TO REFLECT TORNADO WATCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL VALID CONCERNING FORECAST THINKING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
VERY BUSY SHIFT HERE THIS MORNING. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
HARD TO DISCERN ACROSS CWA BUT FEEL IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS S OH INTO C WV PER LATEST RUC LOW LEVEL THETA E AXIS.
BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE ALONG GRADIENT AND BECOMING SFC
BASED. THIS WILL SLIDE INTO PORTIONS OF SE OH/NE KY AND W WV OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH ISOLATED SVR THREAT ON COLD POOL PROPAGATION.
COMPLICATED FORECAST HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BLOWOFF FROM DECAYING MCS OVER W KY THIS MORNING WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF SFC HEATING C AND E KY INTO WV TO AID IN INSTABILITY. FEEL
THE RAP/HRRR HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS AND USED THESE AS A BASE
FOR THE FORECAST. THINKING A FEW ROUNDS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOW ALONG VORT LOBE...SLATED 21 TO 01Z TIME FRAME. SEE SPC TXT FOR
A MORE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION REGARDING SLIGHT RISK AND SVR THREAT
OVER E OH/E KY AND C WV AS WE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
ASSESSMENT.
GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THIS EVE AND IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NE KY/C AND S WV/SE OH UNTIL 09Z...ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWING OUTLINE
OF MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUED EARLIER BY WPC.
HAVE FRONT SAGGING S THRU AREA OVERNIGHT AND SLOWING SOME ON
THURSDAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE SW OF AREA FOR TOMORROW WITH SOME FRESH
AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE STORMS THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA WITH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER DYNAMICS TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS FAR SOUTH FRIDAY. CHOSE A MIDDLE OF ROAD SCENARIO AS
SOME MODELS KEEP RAIN SOUTH OF US...WHILE OTHER BRING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH A WARMING TREND SATURDAY UNDER LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING ON A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN AS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT RETURN OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERHAPS BY
TUESDAY...THE FRONT MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW SOME COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION WITH GREATER COVERAGE IN THE 21 TO 00Z TIME FRAME
WITH SOME STORMS STRONG TO SVR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY
FOR THE S TAF SITES TO INCLUDE KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. HAVE SOME 1 TO 2 HR
IFR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION WITH SOME GUSTS FOR
KHTS/KCRW. HAVE SOME MVFR/IFR NORTHERN SITES FOR MAINLY DOWNPOURS
WITH THINKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS S TERMINALS.
SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBY FG
BUT FLOW SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FG. FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OVERNIGHT...TAKING INTO MORNING TO CLEAR SW VA. ANY LOW STRATUS WILL
QUICKLY SCT OUT IN THE MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN FLAT LOW END VFR CU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEGREE OF IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
COULD VARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF A LARGE BOWING LINE DEVELOPS
LATER TODAY...THAT WOULD LIKELY SPEED UP THE TIMING...ESPECIALLY
DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL AS INCREASE THE WIND THREAT. TIMING AND EXTENT
OF POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS WILL VARY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>008-013>018-
024>029.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
315 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
245 PM UPDATE...
FRESHENED UP GRIDS TO REFLECT TORNADO WATCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL VALID CONCERNING FORECAST THINKING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
VERY BUSY SHIFT HERE THIS MORNING. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
HARD TO DISCERN ACROSS CWA BUT FEEL IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS S OH INTO C WV PER LATEST RUC LOW LEVEL THETA E AXIS.
BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE ALONG GRADIENT AND BECOMING SFC
BASED. THIS WILL SLIDE INTO PORTIONS OF SE OH/NE KY AND W WV OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH ISOLATED SVR THREAT ON COLD POOL PROPAGATION.
COMPLICATED FORECAST HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BLOWOFF FROM DECAYING MCS OVER W KY THIS MORNING WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF SFC HEATING C AND E KY INTO WV TO AID IN INSTABILITY. FEEL
THE RAP/HRRR HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS AND USED THESE AS A BASE
FOR THE FORECAST. THINKING A FEW ROUNDS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOW ALONG VORT LOBE...SLATED 21 TO 01Z TIME FRAME. SEE SPC TXT FOR
A MORE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION REGARDING SLIGHT RISK AND SVR THREAT
OVER E OH/E KY AND C WV AS WE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
ASSESSMENT.
GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THIS EVE AND IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NE KY/C AND S WV/SE OH UNTIL 09Z...ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWING OUTLINE
OF MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUED EARLIER BY WPC.
HAVE FRONT SAGGING S THRU AREA OVERNIGHT AND SLOWING SOME ON
THURSDAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE SW OF AREA FOR TOMORROW WITH SOME FRESH
AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM WITH A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED FROM NORTHERN WV SOUTHWEST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND
INTO EASTERN KY...SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
AMPLE MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV AND OUR EASTERN KY/VA
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH ANY SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OVER FOR MOST BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING 500J CAPE IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHEASTERN MTN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE...CANT RULE OUT A SVR GUST WITH ANY ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS THAT AREA...EVEN THEN WESTERLY 850 FLOW WILL BE
WEAKENING TO THE 30KT RANGE...SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BEING SWEPT ESE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE
DRY OUT NICELY BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WSW AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FOR NOW WENT PRIMARILY WITH NAM SOLUTION AND CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COALFIELDS...BUT DID DOWNPLAY CONVECTION POTENTIAL
WITH DOUBTS IN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING THAT FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC CLOSELY WITH THE LOW AND COLD FRONT RIDING THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WHICH BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE SHORT WAVE AT THIS DISTANT TIME DOES HAVE A BIT MORE
AMPLITUDE WHICH WILL LIKELY DRAG THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A GOOD WARMUP AND MOISTURE
INFLUX AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO. SO...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS
DURING MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION WITH GREATER COVERAGE IN THE 21 TO 00Z TIME FRAME
WITH SOME STORMS STRONG TO SVR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY
FOR THE S TAF SITES TO INCLUDE KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. HAVE SOME 1 TO 2 HR
IFR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION WITH SOME GUSTS FOR
KHTS/KCRW. HAVE SOME MVFR/IFR NORTHERN SITES FOR MAINLY DOWNPOURS
WITH THINKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS S TERMINALS.
SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBY FG
BUT FLOW SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FG. FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OVERNIGHT...TAKING INTO MORNING TO CLEAR SW VA. ANY LOW STRATUS WILL
QUICKLY SCT OUT IN THE MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN FLAT LOW END VFR CU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEGREE OF IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
COULD VARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF A LARGE BOWING LINE DEVELOPS
LATER TODAY...THAT WOULD LIKELY SPEED UP THE TIMING...ESPECIALLY
DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL AS INCREASE THE WIND THREAT. TIMING AND EXTENT
OF POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS WILL VARY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>008-013>018-
024>029.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
136 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION TODAY...ENDING LATE THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND IT WILL BRING A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS TO THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING WARMING CLOUD TOPS WITH DECAYING
MCS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
WE CONTINUE TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...BUT OVERALL THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND IN THE REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR OVER THE PAST HOUR.
BASED ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE SITUATED
FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OHIO ATTM AND THIS LOOSELY
CORRELATES WITH A SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION NOT NECESSARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS REMNANTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT
EFFECTS THE DECAYING MCS WILL HAVE ON THE WARM FRONT AS THE RAIN
COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH MAY DELAY THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM
FRONT HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEIR AFFECT ON SOLAR INSOLATION. BOTH THE
12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP ARE KEEPING THE BETTER ML CAPES...IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BETTER JET DYNAMICS WILL BE PIVOTING
INTO OUR ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS WILL LIKELY HELP
COMPENSATE FOR SOME OF THE LOWER INSTABILITIES.
MOST OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH IT THEN PUSHING SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE CURRENT SET UP...THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FA. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE INCREASING
JET...THINK THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET SOME BETTER INSTABILITIES INTO THE
AREA...ROTATING STORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT
GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. PWS WILL PUSH UP INTO THE 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. WHILE THE HI RES MODELS DISAGREE WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...THEY ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ONCE IT
DEVELOPS SO HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FAIRLY RAPID
TURNOFF WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. EVENING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THAT
FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY AND HELP CONTINUE TO
PUSH DRIER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING IN TO THE
50S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE ONE OF THOSE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING
MOISTURE...LIFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT/COLD FROM TANDEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT
POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO SOME TIMING ISSUES.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH PCPN COMING TO AN END
BY MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN INDIANA WITH A TRAILING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SYSTEM
EXITS AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
SHRA/TSRA. THE SHRA AND CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF TAF SITES
FROM 22Z TO 01Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH WITH
FROPA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT IN THIS EVENING AND ALLOW
FOR MVFR CIGS UNTIL DRIER AIR WORKS TOWARD 12Z. EXPECT SOME LATE
MORNING AND AFTN CU IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ077>082-
088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...PADGETT/SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1246 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...MOVES NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
1245 PM UPDATE...
VERY BUSY SHIFT HERE THIS MORNING. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
HARD TO DISCERN ACROSS CWA BUT FEEL IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS S OH INTO C WV PER LATEST RUC LOW LEVEL THETA E AXIS.
BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE ALONG GRADIENT AND BECOMING SFC
BASED. THIS WILL SLIDE INTO PORTIONS OF SE OH/NE KY AND W WV OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH ISOLATED SVR THREAT ON COLD POOL PROPAGATION.
COMPLICATED FORECAST HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BLOWOFF FROM DECAYING MCS OVER W KY THIS MORNING WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF SFC HEATING C AND E KY INTO WV TO AID IN INSTABILITY. FEEL
THE RAP/HRRR HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS AND USED THESE AS A BASE
FOR THE FORECAST. THINKING A FEW ROUNDS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOW ALONG VORT LOBE...SLATED 21 TO 01Z TIME FRAME. SEE SPC TXT FOR
A MORE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION REGARDING SLIGHT RISK AND SVR THREAT
OVER E OH/E KY AND C WV AS WE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
ASSESSMENT.
GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THIS EVE AND IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NE KY/C AND S WV/SE OH UNTIL 09Z...ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWING OUTLINE
OF MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUED EARLIER BY WPC.
HAVE FRONT SAGGING S THRU AREA OVERNIGHT AND SLOWING SOME ON
THURSDAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE SW OF AREA FOR TOMORROW WITH SOME FRESH
AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM WITH A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED FROM NORTHERN WV SOUTHWEST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND
INTO EASTERN KY...SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
AMPLE MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV AND OUR EASTERN KY/VA
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH ANY SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OVER FOR MOST BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING 500J CAPE IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHEASTERN MTN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE...CANT RULE OUT A SVR GUST WITH ANY ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS THAT AREA...EVEN THEN WESTERLY 850 FLOW WILL BE
WEAKENING TO THE 30KT RANGE...SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BEING SWEPT ESE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE
DRY OUT NICELY BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WSW AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FOR NOW WENT PRIMARILY WITH NAM SOLUTION AND CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COALFIELDS...BUT DID DOWNPLAY CONVECTION POTENTIAL
WITH DOUBTS IN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING THAT FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC CLOSELY WITH THE LOW AND COLD FRONT RIDING THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WHICH BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE SHORT WAVE AT THIS DISTANT TIME DOES HAVE A BIT MORE
AMPLITUDE WHICH WILL LIKELY DRAG THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A GOOD WARMUP AND MOISTURE
INFLUX AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO. SO...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS
DURING MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU AND MIST FIRST THING THIS MORNING DISSIPATES
WITHIN FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF FCST.
THE COLD FRONT THAT TRIGGERED THE THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING WILL
RETURN N AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY CARRY MVFR...LOCAL IFR...CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK N OF THE AREA TONIGHT...DRAGGING THE FRONT
BACK DOWN AS A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WILL BE QUITE STRONG...LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE GUSTS OF 40
TO 45 KTS IN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS...BUT SEVERE GUSTS...50 KTS
OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CARRY
LIFR CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE ACTION SHOULD BE 01Z-05Z THU...LATEST
E.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER 06Z THU...AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL START TO BRING AN END TO THE ACTION ALTOGETHER BY 12Z
THU...AS IT PUSHES INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT S TO SW
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND THEN TO NW AND A BIT BRISK BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD 12Z THU. LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SW THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
MODERATE SW TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT TO MODERATE N ALOFT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z THU.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEGREE OF IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
COULD VARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF A LARGE BOWING LINE DEVELOPS
LATER TODAY...THAT WOULD LIKELY SPEED UP THE TIMING...ESPECIALLY
DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL AS INCREASE THE WIND THREAT. TIMING AND EXTENT
OF POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS WILL VARY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND STRATUS THU MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>008-013>018-
024>029.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
UPDATE...
LATE MORNING GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE MIDSOUTH...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM LAST NIGHT/S CENTRAL
PLAINS / MID MS RIVER VALLEY MCS. IN ADDITION... SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CUMULUS HAD FORMED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...SUPPORTED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
UPSTREAM AIRMASS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WAS RECOVERING WITH
RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. 16Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS FOR DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN I70 CORRIDOR STATIONARY FRONT. 12Z
NAM APPEARED A LITTLE PREMATURE IN DEVELOPING STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
MO. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MO
AND KY BORDERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON... NEARER TO THE HRRR SOLUTION.
BETTER THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE.
AN ONGOING MCS IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND NOT SHOWING ANY CONSIDERABLE SIGNS
OF WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE MID-SOUTH. IT WILL MOST LIKELY CLIP THE NORTHERN
MOST COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT AREA AS WELL. THE MCS WILL WEAKEN
BY LATE MORNING AND ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NEW ZONES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
AC3
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
SYNOPSIS... WE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE RING
OF FIRE SETS UP OVER THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
90S NEARLY AREAWIDE FOR TODAY. BY TONIGHT...A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT...BUT RAIN APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND A FEW AREAS...MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...ARE STARTING TO REPORT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE
ONSET OF PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
WITH SUN UP. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LARGE MCS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
ESE AND FALL APART BY THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER
MID-SOUTH ALREADY. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TODAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR...AND MOST HUMID AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. BY TONIGHT...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND INTERACT WILL A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MID LEVEL
50 KT JET WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500
J/KG...ALONG WITH 45-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES
NEAR 200 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED RISK OF A
TORNADO. STORM MODE APPEARS TO SUPPORT A LINEAR STRUCTURE AS UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT SOME TURNING OF
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS COULD INITIALLY SUPPORT A MIXED STORM
MODE. NONETHELESS...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
BY THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...EXACT LOCATION IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCLEAR.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN DESTABILIZE AND SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT..A
RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND MOST
LIKELY TRIGGER AN MCS OVERNIGHT. THE SAME SCENARIO IS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH AN MCS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 70S
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY. SUNDAY WILL ALSO SEE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND
SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AFTER TUESDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PROVIDING MVFR CIGS/VIS AT JBR AND
MKL. NOT CONFIDENT THAT OCCASIONAL STORMS WILL MAKE INTO MEM AND
TUP...SO PLACED SHOWERS IN AT MEM AND LEFT CONVECTION OUT AT TUP.
STORMS WILL PROVIDE A STRONG ENOUGH OUTFLOW TO SHIFT WINDS FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS SUNRISE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL
OCCUR AT JBR...MEM...AND MKL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME BY 05/01Z.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1150 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.UPDATE...
LATE MORNING GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE MIDSOUTH...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM LAST NIGHT/S CENTRAL
PLAINS / MID MS RIVER VALLEY MCS. IN ADDITION... SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CUMULUS HAD FORMED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...SUPPORTED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
UPSTREAM AIRMASS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WAS RECOVERING WITH
RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. 16Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS FOR DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN I70 CORRIDOR STATIONARY FRONT. 12Z
NAM APPEARED A LITTLE PREMATURE IN DEVELOPING STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
MO. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MO
AND KY BORDERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON... NEARER TO THE HRRR SOLUTION.
BETTER THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE.
AN ONGOING MCS IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND NOT SHOWING ANY CONSIDERABLE SIGNS
OF WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE MID-SOUTH. IT WILL MOST LIKELY CLIP THE NORTHERN
MOST COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT AREA AS WELL. THE MCS WILL WEAKEN
BY LATE MORNING AND ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NEW ZONES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
AC3
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
SYNOPSIS... WE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE RING
OF FIRE SETS UP OVER THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
90S NEARLY AREAWIDE FOR TODAY. BY TONIGHT...A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT...BUT RAIN APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND A FEW AREAS...MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...ARE STARTING TO REPORT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE
ONSET OF PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
WITH SUN UP. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LARGE MCS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
ESE AND FALL APART BY THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER
MID-SOUTH ALREADY. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TODAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR...AND MOST HUMID AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. BY TONIGHT...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND INTERACT WILL A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MID LEVEL
50 KT JET WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500
J/KG...ALONG WITH 45-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES
NEAR 200 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED RISK OF A
TORNADO. STORM MODE APPEARS TO SUPPORT A LINEAR STRUCTURE AS UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT SOME TURNING OF
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS COULD INITIALLY SUPPORT A MIXED STORM
MODE. NONETHELESS...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
BY THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...EXACT LOCATION IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCLEAR.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN DESTABILIZE AND SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT..A
RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND MOST
LIKELY TRIGGER AN MCS OVERNIGHT. THE SAME SCENARIO IS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH AN MCS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 70S
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY. SUNDAY WILL ALSO SEE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND
SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AFTER TUESDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVES TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL SKIRT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. BKN HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF SHOULD IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT
WITH CONTINUED VFR CIGS/VSBYS. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
FALL APART BEFORE REACHING OUR TAF SITES AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG ACROSS OUR REGION PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER TODAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL
CU. VFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER MCS SHOULD FORM TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED OVERNIGHT FOR
KJBR AND KMKL WHERE THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS. KMEM AND
KTUP SHOULD REMAIN RAINFREE. IF CONVECTION DOES IMPACT KJBR OR
KMKL DIRECTLY...THEN CIGS AND VSBYS COULD BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE STILL REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD
ANYTHING MORE THAN VICINITY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH
SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY RELAX LATER TONIGHT AND MAY BE MODULATED BY ANY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED FROM EVENING STORM COMPLEX.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
130 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT FROM PENNSYLVANIA...WESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY...FINALLY SINKING SOUTH OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MCS MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM WITH
SOME SCT CONVECTION EXTENDING SEWD INTO OUR FAR WRN ZONES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT HAVING ANY SIGNIFICANT SUCCESS HOLDING TOGETHER.
BELIEVE OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE DAY WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH RES
ARW SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF THINGS AND WILL
LEAN ON IT UNTIL LOCAL WRF AND HRRR START TO CATCH ON. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO COVER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT OTHER ELEMENTS
OF THE FORECAST LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS AFD...
BLEND OF THE 00Z CMC/GFS/ECMWF TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SOME TENDENCY TOWARD WPC FASTER SOLUTION IN THE QPF.
THE ISSUE TODAY WILL BE FIRING UP OF NEW CONVECTION. THE CMC
ESPECIALLY FAVORS SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP IN THE NEW RIVER
AND ROANOKE VALLEYS TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY NOON...THEN SHIFTING ESE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE HOWEVER APPEARS
SCATTERED AT BEST...SO NOT GOING TO HAVE HIGH CHANCE OF POPS.
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER TODAY...THEN WE START
TO FOCUS ON WHERE THE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS LOCATED
FROM NE KS TO CENTRAL IL...AND ITS EVOLUTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THESE COMPLEXES TEND TO STIR TOWARD THE HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS ALONG THE CORFIDI VECTORS. MODELS SHOW THIS WILL BE OVER KY/TN
LATER TONIGHT...BUT EASTWARD STEERING ALOFT MAY TAKE SOME TO THE MID
ATLANTIC FROM PA TO VA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS HIGHLIGHT
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WEST TO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MODELS HIGHER
INSTABILITY AXIS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THAT MODELS MAY BE SLOWER
WITH OVERALL SPEED OF SYSTEM BY 3-6 HRS...AND WPC IS SHOWING ABOUT
A FASTER SOLUTION. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE ENTERING SE WV EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
SHIFTING IT SOUTH TO THE NC MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS EAST OF BLUE RIDGE FROM ROANOKE SOUTH TO THE NC
FOOTHILLS. KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH FROM NORTH OF ROANOKE
EAST TO LYH...DUE TO THE FACT THAT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY
SINK ANY CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NRN VA SOUTH INTO THIS AREA
LATE.
OVERALL WILL BE WORRIED ABOUT A WIND THREAT IN THE WEST. THINK
TIMING BEING AT NIGHT FAVORS LESS INSTABILITY...SO THE THREAT
SHRINKS EAST OF THE WV/FAR SW VA AND NW NC MTNS.
IF THE MCS TRACKS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST HOLDING TOGETHER...A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR. WPC ALSO HAS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEST INTO KY. WILL HIGHLIGHT HVY
RAIN/ISOLATE FLOODING THREAT IN THE HWO FOR OUR WRN MTN COUNTIES.
GIVEN LACK OF GOOD RAINFALL LATELY...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO NOT
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH OUR
WFO NEIGHBORS.
FOR TEMPS...THEY TOO WILL BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FASTER THAN MODELS SUGGEST COULD IMPACT HIGH
TEMPS. KEPT THE COURSE OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT RAISED A DEGREE OR
TWO EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY WARM/HOT AND
HUMID DAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 90 SOUTHEAST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.
TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AROUND TEMPS WILL NOT FALL TOO
FAR...BUT SHOULD REACH CLOSER TO DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WHILE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF A DECAYING MCS REMAINS IN QUESTION...
BELIEVE THAT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WILL HAVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. THE SYSTEM`S ARRIVAL WILL
LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS/
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE/SE WEST VIRGINIA...IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS. AS
CONVECTION SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...MAY MAINTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS...BUT
EXPECT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. BY AFTERNOON...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ENOUGH THAT
WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460.
ASSUMING THERE ARE NO CHANGES IN THE TIMING OR THE TRACK OF THE
MCS...THE COMBINATION OF SUN AND WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
WHILE MID AND UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH...BUT EXPECT THAT THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MORE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING EAST
ALONG THE FRONT TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE REMAINS QUITE A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...WITH
THE NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CONVECTION TO OUR AREA...
WHILE THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF MODELS ALL KEEP THE CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH. INCLINED TO FOLLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...
BUT WONT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT IT EITHER...AND THEREFORE WILL GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO OUR AREA.
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP
KEEP INSTABILITY LIMITED. AS CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES DURING THE
EVENING...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S EAST
AND THE LOW 80S/UPPER 70S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTH PULLING
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AGAIN WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY..
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AVIATION PACKAGE DUE TO LACK OF CLEAR
CUT EVOLUTION WITH ANTICIPATED UPSTREAM CONVECTION. STORMS
CURRENTLY FIRING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT
WHERE MORNING SUN HAS ENHANCED INSTABILITY. MOST LIKELY THAT KDAN
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS RIGHT AT ISSUANCE TIME SO WILL HAVE A ONE
HOUR GROUP OFF THE BAT TO HANDLE THIS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE
VCTS IS THE WAY TO GO UNTIL CONVECTION CAN GET MORE ORGANIZED.
MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING A BIT AND SEEM TO FAVOR BRINGING
THINGS THROUGH IN SURGES. WILL ATTEMP TO TIME THE INITIAL SURGE
FROM NW TO SE BEGINNING AROUND 00Z. WILL INDICATE NW GUSTS
ANTICIPATING LINEAR OUTFLOW FOR ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD. THIS IS
ATTEMPTING TO INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR ENHANCED
WINDS...ACTUAL PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WILL BE SHORTER. FROPA
DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. BUT AM INDICATING
THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW. FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK
SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING. ALSO ANTICIPATE SOME FOG FORMATION
LATE MAINLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. ALSO BELIEVE GOOD MIXING BEHING
FRONT TOMORROW SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME GUSTY WIND.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MAINLY VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL FOG LATE NIGHT FOG
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
AND SUB VFR WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OBSERVATIONS ARE AGAIN COMING IN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IS WITH VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL
IN WISCONSIN TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY
DRIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. CU FIELD WITH SOME VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH AS A SURFACE RIDGE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT SOME
VERY SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG COULD FORM IN LOW LYING/VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE 04.17Z RAP KEEPS DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S OVERNIGHT...SO DO NOT THINK THAT THERE IS MUCH CONCERN FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP LOW ENOUGH IN THE BOGS TO CREATE SOME FROST
OVERNIGHT. IF THE CORE OF THE RIDGE WAS GOING TO BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...THEN MAYBE...BUT IT STAYS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
AS THE RIDGE TRACKS TO THE EAST...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER TOMORROW BRINGING LOW
LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. A CORRIDOR OF
1000-2000J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
FORM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA WITH COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH WIND SHEAR/INSTABILITY STAYING ON THE
LOW SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
AFTER THIS SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL END AS A BROAD TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE MORE
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY FORMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. 04.12Z
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH LITTLE TO NO
WIND SHEAR IN THE EFFECTIVE LAYER. SO AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THIS CONVECTION. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST BETWEEN HOW FAST/WIDESPREAD THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF
SPINS UP A DEEP SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE MAIN CROSS OVER BETWEEN THE MODELS APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY
EVENING...SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR
THAT PERIOD.
RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FROM THE EAST FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVES IN ON MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE DRY
WITH A FEW SHOTS OF GETTING SOME RAIN...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY ON THE SEASONAL SIDE
THROUGHOUT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH CLOUD BASES OF 6000
TO 7000 FT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KLSE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS THIS EVENING. IF DEWPOINTS STAY UP...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT KLSE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
WABASHA REMAINS THE ONLY SPOT FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS
RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLIER THIS WEEK MAKES IT
DOWN THE RIVER. A FEW SHOTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK WHICH COULD HELP KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1239 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WAS FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION. THE 04.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE WAY TOO FAR
NORTH AND TOO HEAVY WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION...THUS TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE ARW...NMM...AND RAP MODELS. THESE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH 04.18Z. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHOWERS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A
RESULT...HAVE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THIS MORNING DECREASING TO
16 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS THAN 6 KNOTS
OF WINDS UP TO 700 MB AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG
RADIATIVE COOLING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
AND MID 40S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SHELTERED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD
POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
ADAMS...JACKSON...JUNEAU...AND MONROE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DEW POINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID
50S. HOWEVER MIX DOWN TOOLS SUGGEST THAT DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THE LOWEST DEW POINTS WILL BE FOUND IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALSO LOWER CAPE
VALUES BY AT LEAST 500 J/KG...THUS...LESS INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 04.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE COLD FRONT
LOCATED TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT STRONGER WITH A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT.
AS A RESULT...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN WHAT SHOWS UP IN EITHER THE GEM OR GFS. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF GENERATES MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SINCE BOTH MODEL
SETS REMAINED CONSISTENT...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
ON SUNDAY...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BELOW 500 MB. THIS MAKES SENSE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER NEIGHBORING
SOUTHERN OFFICES WERE DEALING WITH SEVERE WEATHER OPTED TO LEAVE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 04.00Z ECMWF...GEM...AND
GFS ARE GENERALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR 20 TO 40 PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. SINCE THIS
WAS A NEW TREND AND THE NEIGHBORING SOUTHERN OFFICES WERE DEALING
WITH SEVERE WEATHER OPTED TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH CLOUD BASES OF 6000
TO 7000 FT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KLSE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS THIS EVENING. IF DEWPOINTS STAY UP...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT KLSE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING IN THE ST CROIX AND MINNESOTA
RIVER BASINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CHIPPEWA RIVER BASIN LAST
WEEKEND...THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS ONCE AGAIN RISING. THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO FLOOD STAGE
/12 FEET/ ON SATURDAY JUNE 7TH AND THEN HOVER THERE THROUGH
TUESDAY JUNE 11TH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
348 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH MINIMAL CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES.
INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD PUSH 40 TO
50 KTS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. 18Z LAPS DATA SHOWING UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE IN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS 1000-1500 K/KG HIGHER THAN THE
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. NOT SURE THE LAPS DATA IS 100 PERCENT
ACCURATE BUT GOING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MESO ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE WOULD MEAN VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 16Z HRRR RUN OF COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISCRETE
CONVECTION INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. AT ANY RATE...THERE IS AT LEAST A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE
CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO LATE
TONIGHT NEAR THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED BY
LATE THIS EVENING WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT...AND THAT BEING
MAINLY HAIL.
AIR MASS SHOULD BE STABLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW. CAP
SHOULD BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPPING. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW...BUT THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY BE TO REMOVE THE
CHANCES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACTUALLY THE
HIGHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TOMORROW EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. STRONG THETAE
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
NAM IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE STRONGEST POSITIVE THETAE THAN
THE GFS. NOT SURE WHICH TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING
OF THESE FEATURES. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS WOULD BE THE CASE...THEN WE MAY SEE
THE CONVECTION DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY. WE DID BUMP UP
POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. THIS MAY
ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON THIS DAY AS
WELL WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LIKE THE BULK OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. AFTER THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH...IT WILL TURN QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND 60S. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROF MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY HELP
STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STILL FAIRLY GOOD
SHEAR IN PLACE. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO YIELD TO LOWER
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
AFTER THE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RIDGING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW. AS A
RESULT...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON MONDAY...DUE TO
GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BANK UP
AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOME AID FROM THE LEE SURFACE TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MUCH GREATER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTER REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND
LARAMIE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER STAGES HAVE CRESTED
AND ARE FORECASTED TO RECEDE. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
SO NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOW MELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...REC