Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/03/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1107 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DEWEESE RESERVOIR AND GRAPE CREEK
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE CUSTER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS
THAT THE RESERVOIR WILL REMAIN NEAR CAPACITY THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG GRAPE CREEK BELOW THE
RESERVOIR...BUT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
DAM HAS LESSENED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

CURRENTLY...NO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG CELLS HAVE MOVED
EWD INTO KS...BUT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS. STRATUS PATCH ACROSS EL PASO HAS
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING
AS W-SW FLOW INCREASES AND AREA DRIES OUT FROM THE WEST. DRYLINE
SHOULD RETREAT TO JUST INSIDE THE CO-KS STATE LINE BY MID
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR E OF THE LINE...SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUICKLY SVR...HOWEVER...THEY
ALSO WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO KS...SO THREAT FOR OUR CWA LOOKS
MINIMAL. HRRR INITIATES STORMS RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER AT 20-21Z.

REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY TODAY. TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS. ALONG
WITH RH OF NR 10 PERCENT AND WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH...COULD SEE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
AREAS ALONG AND JUST E OF I-25. HOWEVER...DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
THE FUEL STATUS FOR MOST OF THE AFFECTED AREA DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE COURSE OF
NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

WILL SEE ANOTHER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT
MOSTLY OVER NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...EASTERN EL
PASO...KIOWA...AND PROWERS COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...WITH CONTINUED
DRYING ALOFT...WILL SEE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH SOME SPOTS FALLING INTO THE 30S BY MON
MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

FLOW WILL BE WEAKLY UPSLOPE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY
MON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH HEIGHTS
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS RISING FAIRLY QUICKLY MON AFTERNOON...DOUBTFUL
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW
POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE KS BORDER MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...AHEAD
OF THE REDEVELOPING LEE TROUGH...AS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE TO GENERATE AN
ISOLATED TSRA. MAX TEMPS MON SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...BUT LITTLE CHANGED WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. ON TUE...PORTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH STRONG W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS COLORADO. MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE KS BORDER BY
AFTERNOON...AND WITH FAIRLY DEEP MIXING MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THEIR WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AS 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE 18-20C RANGE. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS/GREEN-UP WILL BE
THE ULTIMATE FACTOR IN ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WED BEHIND NORTHERN
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH...THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE RATHER SLOW
TO INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS SURFACE WINDS ARE INITIALLY NW.
BY WED EVENING...WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE E-NE...PUSHING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MTS. LOW CHANCE OF A TSRA WED
EVENING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WED EVENING AS MOISTURE
ARRIVES...THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY STAY JUST TO THE
NORTH OVER NERN CO. COOLER TEMPS AREA-WIDE WED AS 700 THERMAL
RIDGE IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE STATE. STILL APPEARS AN UPTURN IN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THU
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND UPPER ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS COOLER TEMPS AND
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THU-SAT WHICH
LOOKS OK FOR NOW...THOUGH SUSPECT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AS
THE SWITCH TO A WETTER PATTERN...AT LEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...COMES INTO FOCUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

IN ADDITION TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES...ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED AT
THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 843 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DEWEESE RESERVOIR AND GRAPE CREEK
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE CUSTER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS
THAT THE RESERVOIR WILL REMAIN NEAR CAPACITY THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG GRAPE CREEK BELOW THE
RESERVOIR...BUT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
DAM HAS LESSENED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

CURRENTLY...NO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG CELLS HAVE MOVED
EWD INTO KS...BUT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS. STRATUS PATCH ACROSS EL PASO HAS
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING
AS W-SW FLOW INCREASES AND AREA DRIES OUT FROM THE WEST. DRYLINE
SHOULD RETREAT TO JUST INSIDE THE CO-KS STATE LINE BY MID
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR E OF THE LINE...SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUICKLY SVR...HOWEVER...THEY
ALSO WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO KS...SO THREAT FOR OUR CWA LOOKS
MINIMAL. HRRR INITIATES STORMS RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER AT 20-21Z.

REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY TODAY. TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS. ALONG
WITH RH OF NR 10 PERCENT AND WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH...COULD SEE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
AREAS ALONG AND JUST E OF I-25. HOWEVER...DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
THE FUEL STATUS FOR MOST OF THE AFFECTED AREA DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE COURSE OF
NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

WILL SEE ANOTHER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT
MOSTLY OVER NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...EASTERN EL
PASO...KIOWA...AND PROWERS COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...WITH CONTINUED
DRYING ALOFT...WILL SEE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH SOME SPOTS FALLING INTO THE 30S BY MON
MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

FLOW WILL BE WEAKLY UPSLOPE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY
MON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH HEIGHTS
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS RISING FAIRLY QUICKLY MON AFTERNOON...DOUBTFUL
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW
POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE KS BORDER MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...AHEAD
OF THE REDEVELOPING LEE TROUGH...AS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE TO GENERATE AN
ISOLATED TSRA. MAX TEMPS MON SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...BUT LITTLE CHANGED WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. ON TUE...PORTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH STRONG W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS COLORADO. MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE KS BORDER BY
AFTERNOON...AND WITH FAIRLY DEEP MIXING MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THEIR WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AS 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE 18-20C RANGE. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS/GREEN-UP WILL BE
THE ULTIMATE FACTOR IN ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WED BEHIND NORTHERN
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH...THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE RATHER SLOW
TO INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS SURFACE WINDS ARE INITIALLY NW.
BY WED EVENING...WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE E-NE...PUSHING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MTS. LOW CHANCE OF A TSRA WED
EVENING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WED EVENING AS MOISTURE
ARRIVES...THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY STAY JUST TO THE
NORTH OVER NERN CO. COOLER TEMPS AREA-WIDE WED AS 700 THERMAL
RIDGE IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE STATE. STILL APPEARS AN UPTURN IN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THU
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND UPPER ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS COOLER TEMPS AND
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THU-SAT WHICH
LOOKS OK FOR NOW...THOUGH SUSPECT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AS
THE SWITCH TO A WETTER PATTERN...AT LEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...COMES INTO FOCUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE MVFR CIGS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVR EL
PASO COUNTY THIS MORN. SHOULD SEE THEM DISSIPATE BY
14-15Z...POSSIBLY EARLIER. SW WINDS WILL GUST FROM 25-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER
01-02Z THIS EVENING. ROSE


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 839 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DEWEESE RESERVOIR AND GRAPE CREEK
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE CUSTER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS
THAT THE RESERVOIR WILL REMAIN NEAR CAPACITY THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG GRAPE CREEK BELOW THE
RESERVOIR...BUT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
DAM HAS LESSENED.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE
HYDROLOGY...LW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 1032 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014

MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH THAN WHAT THE RAP AND WRF MODELS
HAVE INDICATED QPF WISE. CONVECTION AND QPF IN THE NAM MODEL MAY
BE A LITTLE OVERDONE BUT IS DEFINITELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN
THE DRIER HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. AIR MASS TRENDING TO A DRIER
REGIME TODAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...GRADIENT
FLOW...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR FOR SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF. A COUPLE OF STRONG CELLS HAVE FORMED IN MOFFAT
COUNTY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER.

UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TAKES
A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION THIS EVENING AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN
COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS EXPANDING AREAS OF QPF TONIGHT AS THIS
WAVE MOVES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO. QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOW
SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR NW COLORADO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
THIS FORCING IS FRACTURED. SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AT AROUND
25-35 MPH FROM THE SW TO NE.

ONCE THE WAVE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...WSW ADVECTS DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS INTO UTAH AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
NEARLY NON EXISTENT...MEANING DRY WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014

MODELS ARE CURRENTLY POINTING TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOWERS AFTER WEDNESDAY
AS MODEL AGREEMENT LESSENS. AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE... LEAVING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND ACROSS WEST.

A PACIFIC UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 130W/30N THIS AFTERNOON GETS PULLED
INLAND ACROSS CA ON MONDAY...THEN TRACKS ACROSS NRN UT NWRN CO ON
TUE. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE...
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BUT...ITS PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME WINDIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY POSE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER WAVE COMING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BUT DIFFER ON SPEED AND ORGANIZATION.
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MTNS SHOWERS THU-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35 KTS AND LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 10Z AND FINISHED BY 14Z. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION WITH RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH. THE
HIGHEST FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON
BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THESE CONDITIONS.

PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC
HYDROLOGY...TGJT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 1008 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT THURSDAY AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DRY WEATHER IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

BIGGEST CHALLENGE RESIDES WITH THE THREAT OF FOG. DECENT AMOUNT
OF SIGNAL THAT WOULD SUGGEST AN EFFECTIVE PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. YET NEITHER THE HRRR NOR RAP HAS A SIMILAR
SIGNAL. PERHAPS NOTING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THINKING OF THE
STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER S-WINDS
PRECLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...THOUGH THE HRRR/RAP HAVE VERY
LIGHT WINDS. MAYBE THE HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING S WILL HAVE AN IMPACT?

WILL GO WITH MY GUT. NOTING THE DEWPOINT AT THE TIME OF MAX-
HEATING EARLIER TODAY AND CONSIDERING THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
PRINCIPLE...DO NOT BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ENOUGH TOWARDS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE WELL /I.E. SANDY SOILS SUCH AS
MARTHAS VINEYARD/. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR SE NEW ENGLAND.

WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SURF ADVISORY INTO TUESDAY. SWELL WILL LINGER
AS OFFSHORE OCEAN STORM MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW...

DRY START WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING DIURNAL CU UNDER S-SE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE. MODEST MID LVL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE W WHILE ERN REGIONS COLUMN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER
INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS CLASH WILL DEFINE THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON -SHRA/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. BETTER
OPPORTUNITY WILL BE W OF NEW ENGLAND...WHERE HIGHER LOW LVL DWPTS
AND COOLER UPPER LVL TEMPS WILL YIELD NEAR AROUND 1000J/KG SB CAPE
AND LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6.0C/KM. WRN REACHES OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAY BE DESTABILIZED SOMEWHAT...BUT EXPECT MAINLY 500+
J/KG OF CAPE AND LOWER LAPSE RATES THANKS THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND WARMER UPPER LVL TEMPS. THEREFORE...STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING -SHRA/T-STORMS
ESPECIALLY IF ANYTHING HOLDS TOGETHER MOVING OUT OF NY/PA WHERE
BETTER LIFT /FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/ AND BETTER
INSTABILITY RESIDES. DWPTS IN WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL ONLY STRUGGLE
TO AROUND 60...BUT WILL BE HIGHER IN THOSE LOCATIONS TO THE W.

SHOULD ANY OF THESE SHOWERS/T-STORMS HOLD FAST...WILL ADD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE WX WITH THIS UPDATE. PWAT VALUES MAY APPROACH 1.75
INCHES /APPROACHING 3 STD DEV FROM NORMAL/ AND STEERING FLOW WILL
BE WEAK AT BEST...SUGGESTING SLOW MOVING STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN
POPS ONLY FROM AROUND THE CT VALLEY AND W...AS THE RIDGE AND
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARE LIKELY TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT
ATTEMPTS A PUSH TO THE E.

OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MID
LVL TEMPS AND MORE DIURNAL CU. EXPECTING MAINLY WIDESPREAD MID-
UPPER 70S. A BIT MORE HUMID FEELING WITH HIGHER DWPTS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AND MAKING ITS
APPROACH TO THE W EARLY...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TOGETHER SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS INITIALLY. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO CROSS /SLOWLY THANKS TO BLOCKING CUTOFF TO THE
E/...EXPECT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT...MOST STORMS SHOULD
TAPER TO SHOWERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LIFT SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
FRONT AND DECENT COLUMN MOISTURE...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...REACHING EVEN THE ERN HALF OF THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT-EARLY MORNING. SOME HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE MODEST LEFTOVER INSTABILITY ALOFT AND HIGH PWATS IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE USA
THROUGH THE WEEK. ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK...IN THE PROCESS CAPTURING THE OFFSHORE LOW THAT
HAS BEEN WITH US FOR A FEW DAYS. THE COMBINED UPPER LOW THEN MOVES
OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
MONDAY...BUT WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY... AS THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY...IT
PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES
DURING THE DAY WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE SOUTH FLOW LEADING THE COLD FRONT WILL CARRY 1.5-
1.7 INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES...INDICATING A MOIST AIRMASS WITH
PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR RAIN.  THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW
TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5.5-
6.0C/KM.  PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE BUT MEDIOCRE INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDER.  WILL INDICATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER.  CLOUDS AND A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OFF THE OCEAN WILL WORK
AGAINST WARMING TEMPS...WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN EASTERN MA/RI. WILL
HAVE MAX TEMPS 65-70 EAST AND 70-75 WEST.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH A DIGGING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST...EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SOUTHWEST AND ALIGN WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT...STALLING THE SYSTEM.

THURSDAY... UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF ITS SUPPORTING UPPER JET SWINGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE COAST. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH UPPER VENTING TO
GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT...AND LIFT OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THE UPPER JET AND THE SURFACE WAVE SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA.  ANOTHER
COOL DAY WITH MAX TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 70.  PARTIAL CLEARING AT
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES OFF. BUT THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
POOL WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND...SO EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN NH/NORTHERN MASS.

FRIDAY... UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. BUT THEY
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MOIST AIR AT THE CLOUD LEVEL AND AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL AS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO AT LEAST 850 MB AND
POSSIBLY 800 MB. THIS WILL TAP 8C AIR AT 850 MB WHICH MIXED WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED
LAYER WILL BE AROUND 20 KNOTS...SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA.  SOME LINGERING CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL COOL TEMPS
ALOFT COULD GENERATE SOME DIURNAL CU SATURDAY...MORE LIKELY CLEAR
SKIES FOR SUNDAY.  TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 10C SATURDAY AND 12C
SUNDAY...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY BUT THE ECMWF IS 6-9 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE GFS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL VFR WITH S-WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOR FAR SE NEW ENGLAND. ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND POINTS W FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR IMPACTS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY DISSIPATES TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWERING CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... MVFR/IFR IN LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS/WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS. SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS...EXCEPT 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH COAST.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE OCEAN STORM WELL TO THE ESE OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A MODEST SWELL TO NEW ENGLAND WITH SEAS OF 5-8FT AND HIGH PERIODS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
/WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT THROUGHOUT/ WILL HOLD INTO THE
DAY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER...PREVAILS UNTIL SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5
FEET...WITH A 3-4 FOOT SWELL. REDUCED VSBY IN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...WINDS CONTINUE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE TO
5 FEET BUT MUCH OF THIS MAY BE SWELL. REDUCED VSBYS IN SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 KNOTS MOST WATERS...BUT 20 KNOTS
NEARSHORE. SEAS 5-6 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-019-022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/DOODY



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
JUNE 1ST...THE 2014 HURRICANE SEASON STARTS TODAY. 19Z WATER VAPOR
AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW FOR EARLY JUNE. FLOW CONSISTS OF TROUGHING THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BEFORE RIDGING FAR TO THE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA...AND FINALLY DIVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD INTO A
DEEP AND SHARP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS DEEP TROUGH...ALTHOUGH ALREADY WELL EAST OF OUR AREA WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK AS ATMOSPHERIC MOMENTUM ON ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY DRIVES A LATE SEASON FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A CLOSED LOW FEATURE THAT IS
SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NO DIRECT INFLUENCE TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OTHER THAN AN ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ON ITS EASTERN SIDE PROVIDING WAVES OF CIRRUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WAS PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS COASTAL
GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA WITH A LATE SEASON "BACKDOOR" FRONT. THIS FRONT
IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO REACH DOWN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND THEN STALL FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. JUST WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE FORECAST AS GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH.
THE TRANSITION ZONE...SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...WILL BE THE MOST UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS QUITE A MOIST PROFILE THROUGH THE TROP
WITH A PW OF OVER 1.8". MID-LEVEL TEMPS HAVE WARMED A DEGREE OR 2
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY TEMPER THE STRENGTH
OF UPDRAFTS (COMPARED TO PAST DAYS)...HOWEVER THE PROFILE IS
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE
STORM LAYER IS MUCH MORE DEFINED NOW...WITH A PREVAILING EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH 400MB. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE ALREADY 15-20KTS.
THIS MOMENTUM IS ENOUGH TO EITHER PREVENT ANY INLAND PENETRATION OF
THE SEA-BREEZE...OR PREVENT ITS FORMATION ALL TOGETHER. BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST AS OF 2 PM...A GENERAL DECREASE OF
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS
MOST LIKELY AS THE SEA-BREEZE TRIES TO FORM...WITHOUT WINDS EVER
REALLY COMING AROUND TO AN ONSHORE DIRECTION (AT MOST SPOTS).
HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EFFICIENT FOR SURFACE FOCUS AS A DEFINED
BOUNDARY...THE SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE COAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE STORM/UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE NOW PROGRESSING QUICKLY
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITHIN THE PREVAILING FLOW.
ALTHOUGH THE MORE LIKELY SPOT FOR STRONGER STORMS IS AT THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE AS
THEY DEVELOP. SEVERAL OF THE RECENT LOCAL HIRES WRFARW RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW STORMS PEAKING IN INTENSITY JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SEEMS LIKE A
REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE SPEED OF PROROGATION...EVEN EARLY IN A
CONVECTIVE CELLS LIFE CYCLE. BOATERS ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SHOULD RECOGNIZED THAT ANY STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BEACHES WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND POSSIBLY CUT OFF ACCESS BACK TO SHORE.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL AS THE
MOMENTUM MENTIONED ABOVE IS TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE UNDER AND
AHEAD OF THE CELL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANSLATE OFFSHORE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF
SUNSET THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP THROUGH NORTHEAST
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH.

MONDAY IS A TRICKY FORECAST WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT A BIG
PLAYER IN THE THE RAIN CHANCES. USED A SIMILAR PHILOSOPHY TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH LOWEST POPS TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR WITHIN A MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE DOWN ALONG THE
SUNCOAST ZONES...WITH A GOOD GUIDANCE CONSENSUS OF THE MOST NUMEROUS
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN
GULF. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE GENERATED
FROM DIFFLUENCE/SPEED CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX
JET STRUCTURE. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE THE
BEST DAY TO BE BOATING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.MID TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE
AROUND THE PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PENINSULA ALONG WITH THE DECREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY HANGING UP
ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OTHER TWO
SOLUTIONS...HANGING THE BOUNDARY UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WILL TAKE A BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIODS. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE THE DEEPEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL EXIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFERING UP A NUMBER OF POSSIBILITIES
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...WILL FOCUS ON WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WAITING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIODS. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN COLUMN
MOISTURE DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME...WITH COLUMN MOISTURE THEN
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. WILL BE CARRYING VCTS WITH TEMPOS FOR BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO BE GUSTY AS WELL. LINGERING STORMS WILL END WITHIN AN HOUR
OR 2 OF SUNSET WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THEN IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE PENINSULA TODAY AND PUSH INTO THE WATERS
THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEFLY ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE. A
COMBINATION OF OVERNIGHT EASTERLY SURGES AND AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING CAUTIONARY WINDS TO THE WATERS TONIGHT...MONDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON MONDAY. DESPITE SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...NO CRITICAL LEVELS
OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE ANTICIPATED...AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH DISPERSION
INDICES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  88  71  85 /  20  40  20  30
FMY  73  88  71  86 /  20  60  30  50
GIF  71  88  69  85 /  10  30  10  20
SRQ  73  88  72  85 /  30  60  20  40
BKV  71  89  68  85 /  10  30  10  20
SPG  76  87  74  85 /  30  50  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...JELSEMA
MARINE...LEWIS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 1030 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)...
JUNE 1ST...THE 2014 HURRICANE SEASON STARTS TODAY. 14Z WATER VAPOR
AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW FOR EARLY JUNE. FLOW CONSISTS OF TROUGHING THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BEFORE RIDGING FAR TO THE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA...BEFORE DIVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD INTO A DEEP
AND SHARP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
DEEP TROUGH...ALTHOUGH ALREADY WELL EAST OF OUR AREA WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK AS ATMOSPHERIC MOMENTUM ON ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY DRIVES A LATE SEASON FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A CLOSED LOW FEATURE THAT IS
SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NO DIRECT INFLUENCE TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS FEATURE OTHER
THAN AN ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ON ITS EASTERN SIDE
PROVIDING WAVES OF CIRRUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WAS PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS COASTAL
GEORGIA WITH A LATE SEASON "BACKDOOR" FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SHOWN BY
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO REACH DOWN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THEN STALL FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. JUST WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE FORECAST AS GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH. THE TRANSITION
ZONE...SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL BE
THE MOST UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS QUITE A MOIST PROFILE THROUGH THE TROP
WITH A PW OF OVER 1.8". MID-LEVEL TEMPS HAVE WARMED A DEGREE OR 2
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WHICH MAY GENERALLY TEMPER THE STRENGTH OF
STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE PROFILE IS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY. THE STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE STORM LAYER IS MUCH MORE
DEFINED THIS MORNING WITH A PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 400MB.
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE ALREADY AROUND 15KTS AND WILL BE
CREEPING UP IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MOMENTUM IS ENOUGH TO
EITHER PREVENT ANY INLAND PENETRATION OF THE SEA-BREEZE...OR PREVENT
ITS FORMATION ALL TOGETHER. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN THIS
AFTERNOON IS A GENERAL DECREASE OF SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AS THE SEA-BREEZE TRIES TO FORM...WITHOUT WINDS EVER REALLY
COMING AROUND TO AN ONSHORE DIRECTION (AT MOST SPOTS).
HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EFFICIENT FOR SURFACE FOCUS AS THE DEFINED
BOUNDARY...THE SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE COAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE STORM/UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE OPPOSITE SPEED CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST THIS MORNING WITH WINDS PILING UP AS THEY COME ONSHORE. THIS
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH ADDED DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS CONTRIBUTING TO
RAPID SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS QUICKLY
TRANSLATING WESTWARD TOWARD POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES WITHIN THE
STEADY EASTERLY FLOW. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONGEAL
WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST AFTER 2-3PM. ALTHOUGH THE
MORE LIKELY SPOT FOR STRONGER STORMS IS AT THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE AS THEY
DEVELOP. SEVERAL OF THE RECENT LOCAL HIRES WRFARW RUNS HAVE SHOWN
STORMS PEAKING IN INTENSITY JUST OFFSHORE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANSLATE OFFSHORE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF
SUNSET THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE MONDAY MORNING. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH. HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY AND WATCH OUT FOR THOSE QUICK MOVING
STORMS LATER TODAY.

&&

.MID TERM (MONDAY-TUESDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE
AROUND THE PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PENINSULA ALONG WITH THE DECREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY HANGING UP
ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OTHER TWO
SOLUTIONS...HANGING THE BOUNDARY UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WILL TAKE A BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIODS. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE THE DEEPEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL EXIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFERING UP A NUMBER OF POSSIBILITIES
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...WILL FOCUS ON WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WAITING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIODS. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN COLUMN
MOISTURE DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME...WITH COLUMN MOISTURE THEN
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AFTER 2-3PM. CHANCES FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR ASSOCIATED WITH
PASSING STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE EVENING HOURS AND
THEN RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE PENINSULA TODAY AND PUSH INTO THE WATERS
THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEFLY ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE. A
COMBINATION OF OVERNIGHT EASTERLY SURGES AND AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING CAUTIONARY WINDS TO THE WATERS TONIGHT...MONDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
AND NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  73  88  71 /  70  20  50  20
FMY  90  72  88  71 /  70  20  60  30
GIF  88  71  86  69 /  60  10  30  10
SRQ  90  74  88  72 /  70  30  60  20
BKV  89  71  88  68 /  60  10  30  10
SPG  88  76  87  74 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...JELSEMA
MARINE...LEWIS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

 653 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 01/1045Z...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING I-16. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER BY LATE MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.


THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS ALIGNED ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT
01/07Z AND WILL CONTINUE MEANDER SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING...
LIKELY NOT CLEARING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER UNTIL MID-LATE MORNING PER
RECENT RAP LIFTED INDEX PROGNOSTICATIONS. LOW-LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS...WHICH STREAM
INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY MCINTOSH
COUNTY. THE MAIN SPEED CONVERGENCE BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING. UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A
RISK FOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...EXTENDING AS FAR
INLAND AS LONG COUNTY. WILL HIGHLIGHT 50-70 PERCENT POPS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED A RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES QUALIFIER IN BOTH THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS
SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
70S AT THE BEACHES. IT WILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES ALONG
THE COAST AND SPEEDS COULD REACH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
/20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA
COAST LATER THIS MORNING. OPTED TO HOLD SPEEDS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR NOW.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING LATER TODAY...
ALTHOUGH A GOOD BIT OF CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER SOUTH OF I-16 FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE A CONSIDERABLY COOLER NIGHT COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND THE DECAYING FRONT SO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY WELL MIXED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY
DESCEND SOUTHWARD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SETTLE INTO THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY IN THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY...YET MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND A PERSISTENT CAPPING INVERSION TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE AND ANY FORCING
REMAINING CONFINED TO THE SOUTH ALONGSIDE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES BELOW
15 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
STILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...AS A STEADY EAST ONSHORE
WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST. THE SHIFT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SUPPORTING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.

WEDNESDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND. CONSIDERING THE WEAKER UPPER RIDGE AND LESS
RESULTING SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH THE RETREATING ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN INLAND TROUGH...HAVE
REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TYPICAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...ADDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST DETAILS THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND COULD BE DRIVEN BY EITHER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTURBANCE
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR A POSSIBLE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
BY SATURDAY. THE GULF LOW SCENARIO IS AGGRESSIVELY DEPICTED IN THE
00Z/01 GFS...WHILE THE 00Z/01 ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTS A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. HAVE INDICATED
JUST TYPICAL ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...THEN
CONSERVATIVELY TREND INTO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TO INDICATE A POTENTIALLY MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. WILL
STILL CAP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...REACHING THE LOWER 90S
INLAND...BEFORE CONDITIONS COULD TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER INTO THE
WEEKEND IF THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE
DAY...BEGINNING AT ABOUT 14-15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ALL LEGS
TODAY AS STIFF EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS RATHER HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
BET 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
WITH 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. WINDS LOOK TO SETTLE DOWN TO 10-15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER IT WILL TAKE SEAS A BIT LONGER TO WIND
DOWN. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
OVER THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ADVISORY END
TIMES WILL BE ADJUSTED TO TAKE THIS TREND INTO ACCOUNT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY DESCEND
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE...SETTLING INTO THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS AND BECOMING ALIGNED GENERALLY EAST-WEST
ACROSS MARINE ZONES. SOLID ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE PATTERN WITHIN GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS...WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST COUPLED
WITH HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS WILL KEEP THE RIP
CURRENT RISK CATEGORY IN THE LOW RANGE FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BEACHES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A HIGH-END LOW RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
     350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

ST/WMS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

 331 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS ALIGNED ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT
01/07Z AND WILL CONTINUE MEANDER SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING...
LIKELY NOT CLEARING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER UNTIL MID-LATE MORNING PER
RECENT RAP LIFTED INDEX PROGNOSTICATIONS. LOW-LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS...WHICH STREAM
INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY MCINTOSH
COUNTY. THE MAIN SPEED CONVERGENCE BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING. UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A
RISK FOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...EXTENDING AS FAR
INLAND AS LONG COUNTY. WILL HIGHLIGHT 50-70 PERCENT POPS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED A RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES QUALIFIER IN BOTH THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS
SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
70S AT THE BEACHES. IT WILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES ALONG
THE COAST AND SPEEDS COULD REACH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
/20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA
COAST LATER THIS MORNING. OPTED TO HOLD SPEEDS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR NOW.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING LATER TODAY...
ALTHOUGH A GOOD BIT OF CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER SOUTH OF I-16 FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE A CONSIDERABLY COOLER NIGHT COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND THE DECAYING FRONT SO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY WELL MIXED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY
DESCEND SOUTHWARD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SETTLE INTO THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY IN THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY...YET MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND A PERSISTENT CAPPING INVERSION TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE AND ANY FORCING
REMAINING CONFINED TO THE SOUTH ALONGSIDE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES BELOW
15 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
STILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...AS A STEADY EAST ONSHORE
WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST. THE SHIFT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SUPPORTING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.

WEDNESDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND. CONSIDERING THE WEAKER UPPER RIDGE AND LESS
RESULTING SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH THE RETREATING ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN INLAND TROUGH...HAVE
REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TYPICAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...ADDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST DETAILS THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND COULD BE DRIVEN BY EITHER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTURBANCE
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR A POSSIBLE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
BY SATURDAY. THE GULF LOW SCENARIO IS AGGRESSIVELY DEPICTED IN THE
00Z/01 GFS...WHILE THE 00Z/01 ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTS A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. HAVE INDICATED
JUST TYPICAL ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...THEN
CONSERVATIVELY TREND INTO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TO INDICATE A POTENTIALLY MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. WILL
STILL CAP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...REACHING THE LOWER 90S
INLAND...BEFORE CONDITIONS COULD TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER INTO THE
WEEKEND IF THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER CROSSING KSAV THROUGH ABOUT
09Z. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AS BULK OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE
DAY...BEGINNING AT ABOUT 14-15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ALL LEGS
TODAY AS STIFF EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS RATHER HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
BET 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
WITH 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. WINDS LOOK TO SETTLE DOWN TO 10-15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER IT WILL TAKE SEAS A BIT LONGER TO WIND
DOWN. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
OVER THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ADVISORY END
TIMES WILL BE ADJUSTED TO TAKE THIS TREND INTO ACCOUNT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY DESCEND
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE...SETTLING INTO THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS AND BECOMING ALIGNED GENERALLY EAST-WEST
ACROSS MARINE ZONES. SOLID ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE PATTERN WITHIN GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS...WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST COUPLED
WITH HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS WILL KEEP THE RIP
CURRENT RISK CATEGORY IN THE LOW RANGE FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BEACHES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A HIGH-END LOW RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
     350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

ST/WMS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1240 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

257 PM...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND
TIMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES...LAKE COOLING AS
WELL AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK ARE
ALSO FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES.

UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVELS HAVE MIXED DOWN SOME DRIER
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE AIDED
TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. A LAKE BREEZE IS SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND AND WHILE
TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...THE COOLEST AIR
APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS QUICKLY
JUMP INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE QUAD
CITIES. HIRES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET JUST WEST OF THE CWA.

THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH
WILL AID ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE AND EXPECT ANY
CELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH POTENTIALLY SLOW MOVING
STORMS.

WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS SOME PRECIP...
OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS ONLY MEDIUM BUT GIVEN
HOW WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED THE PAST 2 DAYS...SEE LITTLE
REASON TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE 90 DEGREE RANGE. SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SOONER AND/OR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...THEN
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 OR 25 MPH RANGE WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY
LAKESHORE COOLING TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE BUT BY AFTERNOON...
WARMER TEMPS SHOULD REACH MUCH OF THE LAKESHORE AREAS.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND THE
NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE FURTHER
ON MONDAY WITH WINDS POTENTIALLY GUSTING INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY MORNING ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S...TEMPS COULD EASILY REACH THE UPPER 80S BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING/COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
HIGHEST POPS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. IF PRECIP WERE TO HOLD OFF LONG
ENOUGH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME AREAS COULD TAG 90.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD REMAIN WINDS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY
COULD BE QUITE WARM...WELL INTO THE 80S AS SUGGESTED BY THE WARMER
GEM/NAM WHICH ALSO SHOW STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS. GFS/ECMWF COOLER
AND SUGGEST GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. OPTED TO GO WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH MID 80S
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAD BEEN PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL IS NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTHEASTERLY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS ONLY
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND EVEN COOLER AT THE LAKE...FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP NOW APPEARS TO BE FROM
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH BUT TIMING/TRACK MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANGES AS THIS TIME APPROACHES. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY SUPPRESS PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION OR
PERHAPS SOUTH OF THE CWA. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* S WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT THIS AFTN.

* ISOL TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTN AND EVE.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN TO OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY THE MORNING AND BEGIN TO GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY THE LATE
MORNING.  CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BUT REMAINING VFR.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THESE TWO FORCING
MECHANISMS WILL LEAD TO ISOL-SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. RFD
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS FIRST...AND 20Z MAY BE TOO LATE.
DECIDED TO SLOWLY INCH THE TIMING FORWARD. THE REMAINING
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE OCNL TSRA IMPACT AFT 21Z. SINCE TSRA IS STILL
GOING STRONG OVER MN AND WI AT THIS HOUR...FELT COMFORTABLE
EXTENDING THE PROB30 FOR TSRA INTO THE EVENING. GUSTS DIMINISH IN
THE EVENING BUT SOUTH WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT 12-15KT OVERNIGHT.

JEE


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AND
  COVERAGE OF TSRA...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY...MVFR POSS.

TUESDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY...MVFR POSS.

THURSDAY...SCHC TSRA DURING THE DAY INCREASING TO CHC TSRA
OVERNIGHT. MVFR BECMG VFR.

FRIDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.

DZ

&&

.MARINE...
140 PM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS OVER THE LAKE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND GENERALLY
ELY-NELY THOUGH TONIGHT...BUT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW WHILE THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH TO THE
DELMARVA AREA WILL TURN WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY MORNING AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS AND STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE TO 30KT...WHILE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE REMAIN A BIT LIGHTER...AT UP TO 25KT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
NEWD INTO CANADA...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WINDS TURNING TO
WLY-NWLY. THE HIGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD FOR LAKE
MICHIGAN.

KREIN

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1152 PM CDT Sat May 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sat May 31 2014

Showers have lingered west of the IL river through 9 pm, and may
clip western Fulton and Knox counties for another hour. Otherwise,
rainfall should be primarily over for the night in central IL. The
slow movement east of surface high pressure tonight will allow
southeast winds to become south tomorrow morning. That shift will
facilitate additional moisture increase farther east into our
forecast area. Instability params will become more favorable for
showers and storms expanding eastward across IL on Sunday,
especially in the afternoon. The latest 4km HRRR is advertising an active
line of convection to our NW later tonight into Sunday morning,
but it is expected to dissipate for a time allowing the atmosphere
to recharge for afternoon redevelopment.

The thick high cloud cover this evening is showing steady drift
to the NE in the SW upper flow, so by midnight mainly thin cloud
cover should remain the rest of the night. Steady southeast winds
should help lows remain in the 60s across the board, with the
coldest temps toward Danville and warmest from Rushville to
Jacksonville. Fog is not expected to be a problem overnight, with
dewpoint spreads remain at 7F or greater through the night.

Updated the weather, PoP and Sky grids, but the remainder of the
forecast looked fine. Updated info will be available shortly.

Shimon

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT Sat May 31 2014

A few radar returns just west and north of Peoria are most likely
not rain reaching the ground. They are drifting north, which
should leave all terminal sites dry the remainder of the night
under diurnal stabilization of the boundary layer. A major
dewpoint gradient still resides from W to E across IL.
Jacksonville dewpoint was 70F at 11 pm while northeast areas had
dewpoints in the mid 50s, which is indicative of the dry low
level air over the eastern terminals under high pressure. Nearly
no diurnal cumulus formed in that airmass over BMI, CMI and DEC
earlier today. However, increases in moisture on Sunday should
increase cloud cover during the afternoon.

Based on forecast lows and sounding profiles, it does not appear
that fog will be much of a problem tonight, even toward SPI where
dewpoints are in the upper 60s.

The track of showers and storms tomorrow is expected to gradually
shift from west to east. All terminal sites will be under the
threat of thunderstorms during the afternoon, with a few storms
possible near SPI by late morning. VCTS was included in all TAFs
for tomorrow afternoon with VFR cloud ceilings arnd 4k FT. Any
thunderstorms over an airport could reduce visibility to MVFR 3SM
due to rainfall for short periods of time.

A break in the showers/storms is indicated for a few hours early
Sunday evening by a couple of the 4km high res models. However, another
line of showers and storms will possibly arrive toward 03z Sunday
evening. We decided to just leave VCTS through the evening at all
terminal sites until any breaks in the TS become more apparent.

Winds will remain southeast the rest of the night, and become south
Sunday morning with sustained speeds in the 12-14kt range and
occasional gusts to 20-22kt.

Shimon
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 PM CDT Sat May 31 2014

Models are very similar with the overall upper level pattern in
the short term, but then differ in the extended with timing and
strength of individual short waves moving through the
zonal/southwesterly flow. The models also look good on the surface
with location and timing of some of the surface features. However,
where the models differ is on the timing and location of the qpf
through the period. Though confidence is good with overall pattern
and sfc features through the forecast period, confidence becomes
low when looking at when showers and thunderstorms will occur in
the area...and where. Appears to be some disagreement with this
with surrounding offices as well. So, will try a blend of the
models and work to collaborate with surrounding offices.

Main concerns this forecast will be pcpn chances through the
period, and temp forecast later next week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are ongoing in southern and southwest IL, so will
have a chance in the extreme southwest parts of the cwa for late
this afternoon. Since tonight will be dry, will cover ongoing
pcpn with late afternoon period in forecast. Dry forecast for
tonight will be only period without some form of pcpn chances
until next weekend. As mid level high pressure continues to shift
southeast, along with the upper level low, southerly flow will
return to the area tomorrow and bring the return of warm, moist
air back into the whole cwa. With thunderstorms occurring in the
moist axis this afternoon, expect something similar tomorrow in
the cwa. So will bring back chance of showers and thunderstorms
for tomorrow across the area. The chance of thunderstorms will
continue tomorrow night, but highest chances will be in the north
and northwest and east. Then as surface high pressure pushes
further east and flow becomes southwesterly, a frontal system will
get close to the area for Monday. This will increase the chance of
pcpn in the area, with likely pops in the northwest half of the
cwa and chance pops elsewhere. The chance of thunderstorms will
continue Mon night and Tue as the front slowly drops into the area
and reaches central IL by Tuesday night. There could be a break in
the pcpn in some of the area Tuesday, but with models differing on
qpf, will keep chance pops over most of the area and have it dry
in the north.

Temps will remain warm through the period as central and southeast
IL will remain in the warm sector through Tuesday. 850mb temps
approach +18-19C, so temps could be much warmer than current
forecast. However, clouds and pcpn could temper that some.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday

The front will drop into the area Tue night and then likely remain
in the area through most of next week. This will keep the chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the area for Tue night through
Friday. There will likely be some dry periods in the extended, but
too much uncertainty in the timing of the short waves to try and
put dry periods in the forecast at this time. It does look like
the front will either washout or get far enough south to not
affect the weather in the area by Saturday. So, for now will have
dry weather for Fri night and Sat.

With continue period of clouds and pcpn, and a front somewhere in
the area, believe temps will become cooler in some of the area.
MEX guidance looks reasonable with 70s in the north and lower 80s
in the south, especially Thur through Sat.

Auten


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 632 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER OF THE PAST WILL CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK...BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY.

GULF MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

AFTER A QUICK BREAK ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR
STORMS.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS EVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AMID THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 629 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

UPPED POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK
THAT CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND WITH ATMOSPHERE BRING WORKED OVER. HAVE LIKELY POPS
BEFORE 00Z WHERE NEEDED BUT AFTER 00Z ONLY WENT CHANCE. WILL UPDATE
AS NECESSARY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. LOOKS LIKE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
PLUME OF GULF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE HIGH TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TWO TRIGGERING MECHANISMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
WANING DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR HAS CONTINUED TO HINT AT ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SUBSEQUENT RUNS HAVE
ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...NOT A LOT OF TIME WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL TREND CHCS TOWARD A SLIGHT OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

LATE TONIGHT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT A SHORT WAVE PASSING
TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. PLENTY OF GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 06Z...BUT
BEST LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 12Z...AND THAT IS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL TRY AND
TREND POPS LOWER ACROSS THE EAST BUT STICK CLOSE TO THE HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE WEST AS ARRIVAL OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND WILL USE
A BLEND.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THIS PERIOD. WE PICK UP
AT 12Z MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING A SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE STATE...BEST FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS HERE SHOW GOOD SATURATION AND THE BEST
LIFT OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AVAILABLE AND DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUES AS
STATED IN THE EARLIER PERIOD...WILL FLIP THE SCENARIO HERE AND
HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...AND STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN...BUT VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL BLEND
MAV AND MET HIGHS.

ON MONDAY NIGHT FORCING IS LOST AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING WORKING INTO THE COLUMN AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A POORLY ORGANIZED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL BUT DECENT MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. BY THIS TIME LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS
CHANGED TO WEST OR NORTHWESTERLY CHANGING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STICK CLOSE ON TEMPS AS LITTLE TO NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS PROVIDED.

THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD THE GFS AND NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A QUICK AND RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW OVER INDIANA. THIS MEANS
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK RIDGE WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS THINGS COMING INTO SHAPE FOR PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEXT IS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
80S. FINALLY...THE 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT
UPGLIDE WITH VERY MOIST SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL
TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN HEATING AND FORCING APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW. THE MOST STRONG AND LIKELY SYSTEM WILL BE ON IT/S
WAY OUT OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WED NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES AS THE MAIN
THREATS.

ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD QUITE WELL
WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMP RIGHT
AT CLIMO DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
50/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA AT THIS TIME. APPEARS THERE IS A WEAK UPPER WAVE ENTERING
WESTERN INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED WITH TIME...BUT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY STILL RATHER HIGH. CONSIDERING THERE IS SOME
UPPER SUPPORT...THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM MODELS PUSH THIS UPPER WAVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY
020200Z...SO THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN HIGH UNTIL THEN.
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS IN AND
NEAR THE HEAVIER CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 020300Z
CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. APPEARS SURFACE WINDS
MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR
VISIBILITIES...BUT IF THE WINDS DROP OFF MORE THAN EXPECTED...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY.

FINALLY...SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST CEILING 010-015 WILL DEVELOP
TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 629 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER OF THE PAST WILL CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK...BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY.

GULF MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

AFTER A QUICK BREAK ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR
STORMS.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS EVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AMID THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 629 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

UPPED POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK
THAT CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND WITH ATMOSPHERE BRING WORKED OVER. HAVE LIKELY POPS
BEFORE 00Z WHERE NEEDED BUT AFTER 00Z ONLY WENT CHANCE. WILL UPDATE
AS NECESSARY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. LOOKS LIKE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
PLUME OF GULF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE HIGH TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TWO TRIGGERING MECHANISMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
WANING DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR HAS CONTINUED TO HINT AT ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SUBSEQUENT RUNS HAVE
ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...NOT A LOT OF TIME WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL TREND CHCS TOWARD A SLIGHT OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

LATE TONIGHT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT A SHORT WAVE PASSING
TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. PLENTY OF GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 06Z...BUT
BEST LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 12Z...AND THAT IS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL TRY AND
TREND POPS LOWER ACROSS THE EAST BUT STICK CLOSE TO THE HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE WEST AS ARRIVAL OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND WILL USE
A BLEND.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THIS PERIOD. WE PICK UP
AT 12Z MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING A SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE STATE...BEST FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS HERE SHOW GOOD SATURATION AND THE BEST
LIFT OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AVAILABLE AND DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUES AS
STATED IN THE EARLIER PERIOD...WILL FLIP THE SCENARIO HERE AND
HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...AND STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN...BUT VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL BLEND
MAV AND MET HIGHS.

ON MONDAY NIGHT FORCING IS LOST AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING WORKING INTO THE COLUMN AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A POORLY ORGANIZED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL BUT DECENT MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. BY THIS TIME LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS
CHANGED TO WEST OR NORTHWESTERLY CHANGING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STICK CLOSE ON TEMPS AS LITTLE TO NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS PROVIDED.

THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD THE GFS AND NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A QUICK AND RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW OVER INDIANA. THIS MEANS
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK RIDGE WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS THINGS COMING INTO SHAPE FOR PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEXT IS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
80S. FINALLY...THE 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT
UPGLIDE WITH VERY MOIST SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL
TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN HEATING AND FORCING APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW. THE MOST STRONG AND LIKELY SYSTEM WILL BE ON IT/S
WAY OUT OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WED NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES AS THE MAIN
THREATS.

ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD QUITE WELL
WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMP RIGHT
AT CLIMO DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
50/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 012100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA MOVING GENERALLY TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THIS SEEMS TO BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUT THERE MAY BE A WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME LOOSE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
THIS CONVECTION AS WELL. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF IN THE VICINITY OF
KIND...SO UNSURE HOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE LEFT BY THE TIME
IT REACHES KIND...AROUND 012300Z.

FOR NOW WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING OF THE VICINITY SHOWER GROUP BY
A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE UPDATE AND MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR ANY BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MFVR MORE LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM MODELS AND LATEST RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW ALL OF THE
CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND AFFECT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE FOR VCSH FROM 21-02Z.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MANY OF THE TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MFVR
EITHER AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW AND GUSTS TO
UPWARDS OF 25 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 425 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER OF THE PAST WILL CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK...BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

GULF MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

AFTER A QUICK BREAK ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR
STORMS.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS EVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AMID THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
PLUME OF GULF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE HIGH TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TWO TRIGGERING MECHANISMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
WANING DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR HAS CONTINUED TO HINT AT ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SUBSEQUENT RUNS HAVE
ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...NOT A LOT OF TIME WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL TREND CHCS TOWARD A SLIGHT OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

LATE TONIGHT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT A SHORT WAVE PASSING
TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. PLENTY OF GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 06Z...BUT
BEST LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 12Z...AND THAT IS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL TRY AND
TREND POPS LOWER ACROSS THE EAST BUT STICK CLOSE TO THE HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE WEST AS ARRIVAL OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND WILL USE
A BLEND.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THIS PERIOD. WE PICK UP
AT 12Z MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING A SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE STATE...BEST FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS HERE SHOW GOOD SATURATION AND THE BEST
LIFT OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AVAILABLE AND DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUES AS
STATED IN THE EARLIER PERIOD...WILL FLIP THE SCENARIO HERE AND
HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...AND STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN...BUT VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL BLEND
MAV AND MET HIGHS.

ON MONDAY NIGHT FORCING IS LOST AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING WORKING INTO THE COLUMN AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A POORLY ORGANIZED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL BUT DECENT MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. BY THIS TIME LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS
CHANGED TO WEST OR NORTHWESTERLY CHANGING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STICK CLOSE ON TEMPS AS LITTLE TO NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS PROVIDED.

THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD THE GFS AND NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A QUICK AND RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW OVER INDIANA. THIS MEANS
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK RIDGE WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS THINGS COMING INTO SHAPE FOR PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEXT IS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
80S. FINALLY...THE 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT
UPGLIDE WITH VERY MOIST SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL
TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN HEATING AND FORCING APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW. THE MOST STRONG AND LIKELY SYSTEM WILL BE ON IT/S
WAY OUT OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WED NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES AS THE MAIN
THREATS.

ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD QUITE WELL
WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMP RIGHT
AT CLIMO DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
50/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 012100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA MOVING GENERALLY TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THIS SEEMS TO BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUT THERE MAY BE A WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME LOOSE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
THIS CONVECTION AS WELL. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF IN THE VICINITY OF
KIND...SO UNSURE HOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE LEFT BY THE TIME
IT REACHES KIND...AROUND 012300Z.

FOR NOW WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING OF THE VICINITY SHOWER GROUP BY
A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE UPDATE AND MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR ANY BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MFVR MORE LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM MODELS AND LATEST RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW ALL OF THE
CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND AFFECT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE FOR VCSH FROM 21-02Z.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MANY OF THE TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MFVR
EITHER AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW AND GUSTS TO
UPWARDS OF 25 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 153 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER OF THE PAST WILL CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK...BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

GULF MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

AFTER A QUICK BREAK ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR
STORMS.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS EVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AMID THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
PLUME OF GULF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE HIGH TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TWO TRIGGERING MECHANISMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
WANING DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR HAS CONTINUED TO HINT AT ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SUBSEQUENT RUNS HAVE
ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...NOT A LOT OF TIME WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL TREND CHCS TOWARD A SLIGHT OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

LATE TONIGHT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT A SHORT WAVE PASSING
TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. PLENTY OF GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 06Z...BUT
BEST LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 12Z...AND THAT IS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL TRY AND
TREND POPS LOWER ACROSS THE EAST BUT STICK CLOSE TO THE HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE WEST AS ARRIVAL OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND WILL USE
A BLEND.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THIS PERIOD. WE PICK UP
AT 12Z MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING A SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE STATE...BEST FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS HERE SHOW GOOD SATURATION AND THE BEST
LIFT OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AVAILABLE AND DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUES AS
STATED IN THE EARLIER PERIOD...WILL FLIP THE SCENARIO HERE AND
HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...AND STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN...BUT VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL BLEND
MAV AND MET HIGHS.

ON MONDAY NIGHT FORCING IS LOST AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING WORKING INTO THE COLUMN AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A POORLY ORGANIZED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL BUT DECENT MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. BY THIS TIME LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS
CHANGED TO WEST OR NORTHWESTERLY CHANGING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STICK CLOSE ON TEMPS AS LITTLE TO NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS PROVIDED.

THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD THE GFS AND NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A QUICK AND RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW OVER INDIANA. THIS MEANS
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK RIDGE WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS THINGS COMING INTO SHAPE FOR PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEXT IS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
80S. FINALLY...THE 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT
UPGLIDE WITH VERY MOIST SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL
TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN HEATING AND FORCING APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW. THE MOST STRONG AND LIKELY SYSTEM WILL BE ON IT/S
WAY OUT OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WED NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES AS THE MAIN
THREATS.

ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD QUITE WELL
WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMP RIGHT
AT CLIMO DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
50/60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR ANY BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MFVR MORE LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM MODELS AND LATEST RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW ALL OF THE
CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND AFFECT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE FOR VCSH FROM 21-02Z.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MANY OF THE TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MFVR
EITHER AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW AND GUSTS TO
UPWARDS OF 25 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER OF THE PAST WILL CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK...BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

GULF MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

AFTER A QUICK BREAK ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR
STORMS.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS EVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AMID THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
PLUME OF GULF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE HIGH TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TWO TRIGGERING MECHANISMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
WANING DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR HAS CONTINUED TO HINT AT ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SUBSEQUENT RUNS HAVE
ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...NOT A LOT OF TIME WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL TREND CHCS TOWARD A SLIGHT OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

LATE TONIGHT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT A SHORT WAVE PASSING
TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. PLENTY OF GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 06Z...BUT
BEST LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 12Z...AND THAT IS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL TRY AND
TREND POPS LOWER ACROSS THE EAST BUT STICK CLOSE TO THE HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE WEST AS ARRIVAL OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND WILL USE
A BLEND.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THIS PERIOD. WE PICK UP
AT 12Z MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING A SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE STATE...BEST FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS HERE SHOW GOOD SATURATION AND THE BEST
LIFT OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AVAILABLE AND DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUES AS
STATED IN THE EARLIER PERIOD...WILL FLIP THE SCENARIO HERE AND
HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...AND STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN...BUT VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL BLEND
MAV AND MET HIGHS.

ON MONDAY NIGHT FORCING IS LOST AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING WORKING INTO THE COLUMN AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A POORLY ORGANIZED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL BUT DECENT MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. BY THIS TIME LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS
CHANGED TO WEST OR NORTHWESTERLY CHANGING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STICK CLOSE ON TEMPS AS LITTLE TO NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS PROVIDED.

THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD THE GFS AND NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A QUICK AND RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW OVER INDIANA. THIS MEANS
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK RIDGE WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS THINGS COMING INTO SHAPE FOR PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEXT IS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
80S. FINALLY...THE 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT
UPGLIDE WITH VERY MOIST SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL
TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN HEATING AND FORCING APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD...WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND
LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW. HOWEVER...SURFACE REFLECTIONS NOW APPEAR MORE
ROBUST...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY.

RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON EURO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS GFS APPEARS TO
BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...FAIRLY BADLY AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...OVERALL MESSAGE OF A WET AND STORMY PERIOD REMAINS.
ALLBLEND POPS ACTUALLY SEEM TO HANDLE THINGS BETTER THAN IN RECENT
DAYS AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR ANY BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MFVR MORE LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM MODELS AND LATEST RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW ALL OF THE
CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND AFFECT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE FOR VCSH FROM 21-02Z.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MANY OF THE TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MFVR
EITHER AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW AND GUSTS TO
UPWARDS OF 25 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 114 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
UPPER RIDGING TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR GULF RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE WHICH SHOULD KEEP WARM
HUMID AIR AROUND FOR THE DURATION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES. A WARMER...MORE MOIST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR FOR NOW.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S. TIME HEIGHT SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HRRR SHOWS SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS POSITIONING MAKES GOOD SENSE AS
BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED IN THAT AREA. THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF SKY COVERAGE AND POPS THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS THAT IS WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.
ONGOING TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS ON CHANCES FOR STORMS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES BUT GENERALLY
USED A MOS CONSENSUS. THE BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY 0Z TUESDAY. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER 6Z. SURFACE BASED CAPES FOR MONDAY ARE
OVER 1000 AND A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT
POINTING TO CENTRAL INDIANA. LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT OVERALL AM
FAIRLY UNIMPRESSED WITH THE FORCING POTENTIAL OF THIS FRONT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH AND WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST THEN. MUCH BETTER FORCING/SHEAR LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA ABOVE 1.6
INCHES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM DURING THAT PERIOD WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD...WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND
LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW. HOWEVER...SURFACE REFLECTIONS NOW APPEAR MORE
ROBUST...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY.

RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON EURO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS GFS APPEARS TO
BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...FAIRLY BADLY AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...OVERALL MESSAGE OF A WET AND STORMY PERIOD REMAINS.
ALLBLEND POPS ACTUALLY SEEM TO HANDLE THINGS BETTER THAN IN RECENT
DAYS AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR ANY BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MFVR MORE LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM MODELS AND LATEST RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW ALL OF THE
CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND AFFECT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE FOR VCSH FROM 21-02Z.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MANY OF THE TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MFVR
EITHER AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW AND GUSTS TO
UPWARDS OF 25 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1020 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
UPPER RIDGING TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR GULF RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE WHICH SHOULD KEEP WARM
HUMID AIR AROUND FOR THE DURATION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES. A WARMER...MORE MOIST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR FOR NOW.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S. TIME HEIGHT SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HRRR SHOWS SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS POSITIONING MAKES GOOD SENSE AS
BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED IN THAT AREA. THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF SKY COVERAGE AND POPS THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS THAT IS WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.
ONGOING TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS ON CHANCES FOR STORMS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES BUT GENERALLY
USED A MOS CONSENSUS. THE BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY 0Z TUESDAY. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER 6Z. SURFACE BASED CAPES FOR MONDAY ARE
OVER 1000 AND A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT
POINTING TO CENTRAL INDIANA. LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT OVERALL AM
FAIRLY UNIMPRESSED WITH THE FORCING POTENTIAL OF THIS FRONT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH AND WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST THEN. MUCH BETTER FORCING/SHEAR LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA ABOVE 1.6
INCHES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM DURING THAT PERIOD WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD...WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND
LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW. HOWEVER...SURFACE REFLECTIONS NOW APPEAR MORE
ROBUST...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY.

RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON EURO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS GFS APPEARS TO
BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...FAIRLY BADLY AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...OVERALL MESSAGE OF A WET AND STORMY PERIOD REMAINS.
ALLBLEND POPS ACTUALLY SEEM TO HANDLE THINGS BETTER THAN IN RECENT
DAYS AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN
WARM HUMID AIRMASS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN THE ABSENCE OF SOME SEMBLANCE OF ORGANIZATION
HOWEVER...WILL SIMPLY INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR STORMS FROM 21Z TO 01Z
THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-12KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
REMAINING SO BUT WEAKER OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 639 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN MN INTO KS WILL MOVE THROUGH IA BY
MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER CO TUE AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS NRN MO TUE NIGHT AND WED. COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

ONGOING CONVECTION SKIRTING THE NORTHERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO BOUNDARY ACROSS SD
AND MN. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH TODAY WITH MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH PERSISTING ACROSS THE STATE. WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE MISSOURI RVR CURRENTLY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING WITH WEAK FORCING. NAM AND HRRR BOTH DEVELOP SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE AND HAVE CONTINUE THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE MAIN SHOW STARTING TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND BACK INTO
NEBRASKA. HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE. THE THREAT
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE JUST AFTER THIS
PERIOD INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW FOCUSES INTO WESTERN
IOWA. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AS AIRMASS IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DONE LITTLE TO KEEP READINGS
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH THE S/WV AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. EXPECT TO SEE THE PRECIP END
FORM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE
STATE.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER OF THE WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE FROM CO WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT EAST INTO NRN MO. STRONG
H8 SPEED CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS 60 KT
LLJ IMPINGES ON THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES APPROACHING 3 SIGMA OVER CLIMO. SEVERE WEATHER IS A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AS DECENT CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS.
DECENT DYNAMICS ARE ALSO IN PLACE WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT. MOST OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTH HALF OF IA. FEEL THAT IS
MOSTLY LIKELY GIVEN THE PATTERN AND PAST EXPERIENCE. NAM IS THE
ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
EAST ON WED. THOUGH THE HIGH IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CUT OFF ALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP...ESPECIALLY DURING THE CLIMO MAX FOR
RAINFALL...THE NEXT PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY WITH UNLIMITED
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SOME LOCAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. BY TONIGHT...APPROACH OF SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL IOWA SPREADING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. HOWEVER...A DECREASE TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS AND PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT WILL
BEGIN TO BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUN 14
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...MS JUN 14
AVIATION...COGIL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN MN INTO KS WILL MOVE THROUGH IA BY
MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER CO TUE AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS NRN MO TUE NIGHT AND WED. COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

ONGOING CONVECTION SKIRTING THE NORTHERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO BOUNDARY ACROSS SD
AND MN. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH TODAY WITH MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH PERSISTING ACROSS THE STATE. WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE MISSOURI RVR CURRENTLY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING WITH WEAK FORCING. NAM AND HRRR BOTH DEVELOP SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE AND HAVE CONTINUE THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE MAIN SHOW STARTING TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND BACK INTO
NEBRASKA. HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE. THE THREAT
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE JUST AFTER THIS
PERIOD INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW FOCUSES INTO WESTERN
IOWA. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AS AIRMASS IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DONE LITTLE TO KEEP READINGS
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.


.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH THE S/WV AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. EXPECT TO SEE THE PRECIP END
FORM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE
STATE.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER OF THE WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE FROM CO WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT EAST INTO NRN MO. STRONG
H8 SPEED CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS 60 KT
LLJ IMPINGES ON THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES APPROACHING 3 SIGMA OVER CLIMO. SEVERE WEATHER IS A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AS DECENT CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS.
DECENT DYNAMICS ARE ALSO IN PLACE WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT. MOST OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTH HALF OF IA. FEEL THAT IS
MOSTLY LIKELY GIVEN THE PATTERN AND PAST EXPERIENCE. NAM IS THE
ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
EAST ON WED. THOUGH THE HIGH IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CUT OFF ALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP...ESPECIALLY DURING THE CLIMO MAX FOR
RAINFALL...THE NEXT PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

ANY SHRA/TSRA SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. LIGHT BR MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED. ON
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED...BUT
WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND THUS HAVE ONLY
BEEN INCLUDED AT THE NORTHWEST FOD/MCW SITES AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH
THAT MAY STILL BE TOO EARLY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUN 14
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...MS JUN 14
AVIATION...LEE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1214 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

UPDATED FORECAST FOR TODAY TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS. BIGGEST CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS MODELS HAVE SPED UP
THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY AM
THINKING STORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN KIT CARSON AND YUMA
COUNTIES. WITH BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND VERY
LITTLE CINH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...ANTICIPATE STORMS TO DEVELOP SPORADICALLY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM COVERAGE INCREASING AHEAD OF IT.
700-300MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FURTHER AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE
DRIER 850MB AIR MOVES OVER WESTERN CHEYENNE...KIT CARSON AND
GREELEY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL
THERE.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL START THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. A
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. FOR MORE
SPECIFIC INFORMATION REGARDING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS CONSULT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SW FLOW STILL IN PACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KS WITH A LONG FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTER COLORADO WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS AND ARE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. THERE IS MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE AND BULK
EFFECTIVE SHEER AROUND 35-45KT...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH
IS NOT GREAT EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KS AND A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
PATTERN WHICH WILL IMPACT INITIATION AND BEST AXIS OF
SHEER/INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. FOR NOW IT
DOES APPEAR MOST GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON WINDS FROM
YESTERDAY...SO NO WIND ADVISORY I CURRENT PLANNED IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
ECMWF/NAM BOTH SHOW TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
ALLOW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
FAR WEST AT THE HIGHWAY 25/HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDORS. GFS HAS A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AS IT SHIFTS THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST
MUCH QUICKER...SHUNTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEFT SEVERE MENTION
AND HEAVY RAIN MENTION. WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST WE SHOULD SEE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD CAPE/SHEER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY FORMING INTO A SQUALL LINE OR THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER OVER OUR FAR EAST (OR OUTSIDE OUR CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST).

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE OVER
PARTS OF OUR CWA...THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
FLOW PLACING BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON STATIONARY/WARM FRONT POSITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
WILL NOT ONLY IMPACT DAYTIME TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN OUR CWA. GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND IF THIS PANS OUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA
MAY REMAIN DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND HIGHS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE CWA COULD APPROACH 100F. IF THE FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH WE
COULD SE A LARGE TEMP SPREAD TUESDAY FROM LOW 80S IN THE NORTH
(MCCOOK) TO 100F IN THE SOUTH (TRIBUNE). NAM/GEM/ECMWF FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW I LEANED MORE TOWARDS A CONSERVATIVE BLEND
FAVORING THIS LARGER SPREAD RATHER THAN THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WE REACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR PRECIP EVENTS OF A
HALF INCH OR GREATER AT GLD. OVERALL GREAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ALLOWING FOR
A NUMBER OF QUICK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HARD TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE
ACROSS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP...BUT AM CONFIDENT THAT WE
WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS MOST DAYS. EASTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL
PROVIDE FOR AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES OF OVER AN INCH AND SLOW
STORM MOTION VALUE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE DOES EXIST FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER EACH DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ENOUGH TO
PIN POINT ANY DAY IN PARTICULAR DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TIMING THE START OF THUNDERSTORMS IS RATHER DIFFICULT
GIVEN THEY WILL INITIALLY BE FAIRLY SCATTERED. INCLUDED A VCTS
MENTION AS A RESULT. KGLD WILL BE ON THE FAR WEST EDGE OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER BUT KMCK COULD BE IN THE MUCH BETTER PLACEMENT.
WILL NOT PLACE A MENTION OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE SITE. HOWEVER WILL AMEND THE TAF AS NEEDED.

OVERNIGHT THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO MOVE OVER THE
TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JTL






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1124 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

UPDATED FORECAST FOR TODAY TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS. BIGGEST CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS MODELS HAVE SPED UP
THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY AM
THINKING STORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN KIT CARSON AND YUMA
COUNTIES. WITH BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND VERY
LITTLE CINH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...ANTICIPATE STORMS TO DEVELOP SPORADICALLY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM COVERAGE INCREASING AHEAD OF IT.
700-300MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FURTHER AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE
DRIER 850MB AIR MOVES OVER WESTERN CHEYENNE...KIT CARSON AND
GREELEY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL
THERE.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL START THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. A
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. FOR MORE
SPECIFIC INFORMATION REGARDING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS CONSULT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SW FLOW STILL IN PACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KS WITH A LONG FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTER COLORADO WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS AND ARE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. THERE IS MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE AND BULK
EFFECTIVE SHEER AROUND 35-45KT...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH
IS NOT GREAT EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KS AND A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
PATTERN WHICH WILL IMPACT INITIATION AND BEST AXIS OF
SHEER/INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. FOR NOW IT
DOES APPEAR MOST GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON WINDS FROM
YESTERDAY...SO NO WIND ADVISORY I CURRENT PLANNED IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
ECMWF/NAM BOTH SHOW TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
ALLOW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
FAR WEST AT THE HIGHWAY 25/HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDORS. GFS HAS A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AS IT SHIFTS THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST
MUCH QUICKER...SHUNTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEFT SEVERE MENTION
AND HEAVY RAIN MENTION. WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST WE SHOULD SEE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD CAPE/SHEER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY FORMING INTO A SQUALL LINE OR THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER OVER OUR FAR EAST (OR OUTSIDE OUR CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST).

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE OVER
PARTS OF OUR CWA...THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
FLOW PLACING BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON STATIONARY/WARM FRONT POSITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
WILL NOT ONLY IMPACT DAYTIME TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN OUR CWA. GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND IF THIS PANS OUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA
MAY REMAIN DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND HIGHS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE CWA COULD APPROACH 100F. IF THE FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH WE
COULD SE A LARGE TEMP SPREAD TUESDAY FROM LOW 80S IN THE NORTH
(MCCOOK) TO 100F IN THE SOUTH (TRIBUNE). NAM/GEM/ECMWF FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW I LEANED MORE TOWARDS A CONSERVATIVE BLEND
FAVORING THIS LARGER SPREAD RATHER THAN THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WE REACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR PRECIP EVENTS OF A
HALF INCH OR GREATER AT GLD. OVERALL GREAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ALLOWING FOR
A NUMBER OF QUICK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HARD TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE
ACROSS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP...BUT AM CONFIDENT THAT WE
WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS MOST DAYS. EASTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL
PROVIDE FOR AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES OF OVER AN INCH AND SLOW
STORM MOTION VALUE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE DOES EXIST FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER EACH DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ENOUGH TO
PIN POINT ANY DAY IN PARTICULAR DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THIS MORNING...MONITORING STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 800-1000FT AGL IN
EASTERN COLORADO NEAR KLIC WHICH COULD SPREAD EAST TOWARDS KGLD.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LOWER CIGS OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
ALSO MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST
TOWARD KMCK. RIGHT NOW COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ENOUGH I
DECIDE TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCSH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE TERMINAL AROUND MID MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT COULD
FEED OFF INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BUILDING EARLIER AND CONTINUING AT KMCK ALL DAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY DOESNT FAVOR THIS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

THE REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA. BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL AGAIN BE AT
KMCK WHERE PREVAILING TSRA GROUP WAS ADDED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG ERRATIC WINDS AT EITHER
TERMINAL...BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS AT KMCK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 754 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.
STORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATING ALONG TWO DIFFERENT TROUGHS THIS
MORNING. THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AS CAN BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR. WITH STORM MOTION BEING FASTER THAN THE TROUGH...THE
STORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE TROUGH THEN DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE
INTO SUBSIDENCE. OVER THE WEST STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING AHEAD OF
THE MAIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. SO FAR INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MUCH WEAKER AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...BUT ENOUGH IS PRESENT FOR SOME STORMS TO FORM. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WHILE THE MORE SUBTLE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES ANTICIPATE THE TWO TROUGHS TO MERGE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECLINE BEHIND THE
MAIN TROUGH.

SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED FOR ATLEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF HWY 83. VERY LARGE HAIL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH THE
SECONDARY THREAT BEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SW FLOW STILL IN PACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KS WITH A LONG FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTER COLORADO WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS AND ARE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. THERE IS MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE AND BULK
EFFECTIVE SHEER AROUND 35-45KT...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH
IS NOT GREAT EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KS AND A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
PATTERN WHICH WILL IMPACT INITIATION AND BEST AXIS OF
SHEER/INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. FOR NOW IT
DOES APPEAR MOST GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON WINDS FROM
YESTERDAY...SO NO WIND ADVISORY I CURRENT PLANNED IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
ECMWF/NAM BOTH SHOW TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
ALLOW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
FAR WEST AT THE HIGHWAY 25/HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDORS. GFS HAS A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AS IT SHIFTS THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST
MUCH QUICKER...SHUNTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEFT SEVERE MENTION
AND HEAVY RAIN MENTION. WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST WE SHOULD SEE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD CAPE/SHEER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY FORMING INTO A SQUALL LINE OR THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER OVER OUR FAR EAST (OR OUTSIDE OUR CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST).

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE OVER
PARTS OF OUR CWA...THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
FLOW PLACING BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON STATIONARY/WARM FRONT POSITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
WILL NOT ONLY IMPACT DAYTIME TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN OUR CWA. GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND IF THIS PANS OUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA
MAY REMAIN DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND HIGHS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE CWA COULD APPROACH 100F. IF THE FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH WE
COULD SE A LARGE TEMP SPREAD TUESDAY FROM LOW 80S IN THE NORTH
(MCCOOK) TO 100F IN THE SOUTH (TRIBUNE). NAM/GEM/ECMWF FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW I LEANED MORE TOWARDS A CONSERVATIVE BLEND
FAVORING THIS LARGER SPREAD RATHER THAN THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WE REACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR PRECIP EVENTS OF A
HALF INCH OR GREATER AT GLD. OVERALL GREAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ALLOWING FOR
A NUMBER OF QUICK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HARD TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE
ACROSS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP...BUT AM CONFIDENT THAT WE
WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS MOST DAYS. EASTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL
PROVIDE FOR AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES OF OVER AN INCH AND SLOW
STORM MOTION VALUE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE DOES EXIST FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER EACH DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ENOUGH TO
PIN POINT ANY DAY IN PARTICULAR DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THIS MORNING...MONITORING STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 800-1000FT AGL IN
EASTERN COLORADO NEAR KLIC WHICH COULD SPREAD EAST TOWARDS KGLD.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LOWER CIGS OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
ALSO MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST
TOWARD KMCK. RIGHT NOW COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ENOUGH I
DECIDE TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCSH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE TERMINAL AROUND MID MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT COULD
FEED OFF INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BUILDING EARLIER AND CONTINUING AT KMCK ALL DAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY DOESNT FAVOR THIS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

THE REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA. BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL AGAIN BE AT
KMCK WHERE PREVAILING TSRA GROUP WAS ADDED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG ERRATIC WINDS AT EITHER
TERMINAL...BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS AT KMCK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 524 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SW FLOW STILL IN PACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KS WITH A LONG FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTER COLORADO WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS AND ARE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. THERE IS MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE AND BULK
EFFECTIVE SHEER AROUND 35-45KT...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH
IS NOT GREAT EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KS AND A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
PATTERN WHICH WILL IMPACT INITIATION AND BEST AXIS OF
SHEER/INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. FOR NOW IT
DOES APPEAR MOST GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON WINDS FROM
YESTERDAY...SO NO WIND ADVISORY I CURRENT PLANNED IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
ECMWF/NAM BOTH SHOW TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
ALLOW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
FAR WEST AT THE HIGHWAY 25/HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDORS. GFS HAS A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AS IT SHIFTS THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST
MUCH QUICKER...SHUNTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEFT SEVERE MENTION
AND HEAVY RAIN MENTION. WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST WE SHOULD SEE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD CAPE/SHEER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY FORMING INTO A SQUALL LINE OR THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER OVER OUR FAR EAST (OR OUTSIDE OUR CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST).

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE OVER
PARTS OF OUR CWA...THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
FLOW PLACING BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON STATIONARY/WARM FRONT POSITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
WILL NOT ONLY IMPACT DAYTIME TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN OUR CWA. GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND IF THIS PANS OUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA
MAY REMAIN DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND HIGHS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE CWA COULD APPROACH 100F. IF THE FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH WE
COULD SE A LARGE TEMP SPREAD TUESDAY FROM LOW 80S IN THE NORTH
(MCCOOK) TO 100F IN THE SOUTH (TRIBUNE). NAM/GEM/ECMWF FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW I LEANED MORE TOWARDS A CONSERVATIVE BLEND
FAVORING THIS LARGER SPREAD RATHER THAN THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WE REACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR PRECIP EVENTS OF A
HALF INCH OR GREATER AT GLD. OVERALL GREAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ALLOWING FOR
A NUMBER OF QUICK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HARD TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE
ACROSS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP...BUT AM CONFIDENT THAT WE
WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS MOST DAYS. EASTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL
PROVIDE FOR AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES OF OVER AN INCH AND SLOW
STORM MOTION VALUE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE DOES EXIST FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER EACH DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ENOUGH TO
PIN POINT ANY DAY IN PARTICULAR DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THIS MORNING...MONITORING STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 800-1000FT AGL IN
EASTERN COLORADO NEAR KLIC WHICH COULD SPREAD EAST TOWARDS KGLD.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LOWER CIGS OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
ALSO MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST
TOWARD KMCK. RIGHT NOW COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ENOUGH I
DECIED TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCSH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE TERMINAL AROUND MID MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT COULD
FEED OFF INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY WITH THUDNERSTORMS
BUILDING EARLIER AND CONTINUING AT KMCK ALL DAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY DOESNT FAVOR THIS. WILL NEED TO MONIOR.

THE REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NW KAANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA. BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL AGAIN BE AT
KMCK WHERE PREVAILING TSRA GROUP WAS ADDED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG ERRATIC WINDS AT EITHER
TERMINAL...BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS AT KMCK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 239 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SW FLOW STILL IN PACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KS WITH A LONG FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTER COLORADO WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS AND ARE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. THERE IS MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE AND BULK
EFFECTIVE SHEER AROUND 35-45KT...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH
IS NOT GREAT EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KS AND A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
PATTERN WHICH WILL IMPACT INITIATION AND BEST AXIS OF
SHEER/INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. FOR NOW IT
DOES APPEAR MOST GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON WINDS FROM
YESTERDAY...SO NO WIND ADVISORY I CURRENT PLANNED IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
ECMWF/NAM BOTH SHOW TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
ALLOW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
FAR WEST AT THE HIGHWAY 25/HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDORS. GFS HAS A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AS IT SHIFTS THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST
MUCH QUICKER...SHUNTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEFT SEVERE MENTION
AND HEAVY RAIN MENTION. WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST WE SHOULD SEE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD CAPE/SHEER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY FORMING INTO A SQUALL LINE OR THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER OVER OUR FAR EAST (OR OUTSIDE OUR CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST).

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE OVER
PARTS OF OUR CWA...THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
FLOW PLACING BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON STATIONARY/WARM FRONT POSITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
WILL NOT ONLY IMPACT DAYTIME TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN OUR CWA. GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND IF THIS PANS OUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA
MAY REMAIN DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND HIGHS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE CWA COULD APPROACH 100F. IF THE FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH WE
COULD SE A LARGE TEMP SPREAD TUESDAY FROM LOW 80S IN THE NORTH
(MCCOOK) TO 100F IN THE SOUTH (TRIBUNE). NAM/GEM/ECMWF FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW I LEANED MORE TOWARDS A CONSERVATIVE BLEND
FAVORING THIS LARGER SPREAD RATHER THAN THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WE REACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR PRECIP EVENTS OF A
HALF INCH OR GREATER AT GLD. OVERALL GREAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ALLOWING FOR
A NUMBER OF QUICK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HARD TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE
ACROSS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP...BUT AM CONFIDENT THAT WE
WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS MOST DAYS. EASTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL
PROVIDE FOR AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES OF OVER AN INCH AND SLOW
STORM MOTION VALUE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE DOES EXIST FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER EACH DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ENOUGH TO
PIN POINT ANY DAY IN PARTICULAR DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS...WILL NOT MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TONIGHT AT KGLD/KMCK. A DRY LINE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 20Z. DRY AIR MAY ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH AT
KGLD TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
MENTION A CHANCE OF STORMS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS AT
KMCK. WITH DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR...INDICATED GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE STORMS THERE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MENTZER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 655 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
VIRGINIA. THIS FLOW HAS BROUGHT AMPLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE STATE RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE JKL CWA THE
PCPN HAS BEEN MORE FLEETING WITH JUST A FEW PINHEAD SHOWERS NOTED...
LARGELY DUE TO A WARM NOTCH AROUND 650 MBS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S...SO THE INSTABILITY IS THERE BUT ANY TRIGGERS HAVE BEEN TOO WEAK
TO SUSTAIN STORMS HERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
BEEN SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON RADAR. THE HRRR SEEMS OUT OF
TOUCH WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A POP UP SO HAVE NOT REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM
THE GRIDS. A BETTER CHANCE MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING PER MULTIPLE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
THE NAM12. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED SOME LOW...BUT RELEVANT...
POPS IN THIS PART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND VALLEY FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THESE GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF JACKSON. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWN
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT THAT WILL ACT AS A CAP AND KEEP
ALL THE BUILDUPS BELOW 12K FEET. AS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN AND THE AREAL
EXTEND WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DROP OFF AGAIN
NEAR DAWN AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTING THE GFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
UNREALISTIC DEWPOINTS THE MODEL IS GENERATING. WITH THE DEWPOINTS TO
HIGH...IT TAKES MUCH LESS CONVECTION AND LIFT TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL CHOICE HAS BEEN THE NAM AND HRRR FOR THE
FORECAST. THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE LOWS A
BIT HIGHER AND THE HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATION
ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THE FIRST OF A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA
FIRST THING TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP WITH THE FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKELY TO GET
ANY MID LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUPPORT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM
AND LIKELY DROP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHES IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK TO
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT NEAR THE AREA AGAIN...THIS WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST BY SATURDAY WITH GFS AND ECMWF
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES OFF TO THE SOUTH
WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...OPTED TO SQUEEZE A FEW DRY PERIODS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
AND LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...CIGS AROUND 4K CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WHEN THERE ARE ENOUGH CLOUDS FOR A CIG. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
AFFECT VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR DAWN MONDAY...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY
TO HAVE AN EFFECT AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 255 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF JACKSON. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWN
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT THAT WILL ACT AS A CAP AND KEEP
ALL THE BUILDUPS BELOW 12K FEET. AS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN AND THE AREAL
EXTEND WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DROP OFF AGAIN
NEAR DAWN AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTING THE GFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
UNREALISTIC DEWPOINTS THE MODEL IS GENERATING. WITH THE DEWPOINTS TO
HIGH...IT TAKES MUCH LESS CONVECTION AND LIFT TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL CHOICE HAS BEEN THE NAM AND HRRR FOR THE
FORECAST. THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE LOWS A
BIT HIGHER AND THE HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATION
ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THE FIRST OF A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA
FIRST THING TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP WITH THE FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKELY TO GET
ANY MID LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUPPORT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM
AND LIKELY DROP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHES IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK TO
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT NEAR THE AREA AGAIN...THIS WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST BY SATURDAY WITH GFS AND ECMWF
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES OFF TO THE SOUTH
WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...OPTED TO SQUEEZE A FEW DRY PERIODS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
AND LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SME HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A STORM NEARBY
TODAY...HOWEVER THAT CHANCE IS SLIM AT BEST. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR
ALOFT THAT WILL BE CAPPING MOST OF THE STORMS THAT TRY TO BUILD
TODAY...HOWEVER A STORM HERE OR THERE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. PUT A
VCSH AT LOZ AND SME. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS NEAR DAWN...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY AT THE TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 201 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF JACKSON. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWN
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT THAT WILL ACT AS A CAP AND KEEP
ALL THE BUILDUPS BELOW 12K FEET. AS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN AND THE AREAL
EXTEND WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DROP OFF AGAIN
NEAR DAWN AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTING THE GFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
UNREALISTIC DEWPOINTS THE MODEL IS GENERATING. WITH THE DEWPOINTS TO
HIGH...IT TAKES MUCH LESS CONVECTION AND LIFT TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL CHOICE HAS BEEN THE NAM AND HRRR FOR THE
FORECAST. THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE LOWS A
BIT HIGHER AND THE HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATION
ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SME HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A STORM NEARBY
TODAY...HOWEVER THAT CHANCE IS SLIM AT BEST. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR
ALOFT THAT WILL BE CAPPING MOST OF THE STORMS THAT TRY TO BUILD
TODAY...HOWEVER A STORM HERE OR THERE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. PUT A
VCSH AT LOZ AND SME. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS NEAR DAWN...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY AT THE TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 140 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
DECENT RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT SETTING UP. LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE TO MAKE SURE CURRENT TEMPS AND WINDS MATCHED
UP WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANCES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1056 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014

HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. OVERALL...THIS LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS SKY COVER
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A QUICKER DROP
OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE EASTERN VALLEYS. OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO MIN T ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014

HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS. NEAR TERM SKY COVER WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE
CONSSHORT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER
FOR THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING DESPITE SOME OF THE RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS DEVELOPING
SHOWERS OVER THE BELL AND HARLAN COUNTY AREA EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST LATE AT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS
DRY OVERNIGHT AND SREF POPS ARE LOW OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND WITH THE
RIDGE HOLDING ON TONIGHT FEEL THIS IS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE
IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE THREAT OF ISOLATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED BARELY OUT OF THE AREA. THE
REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY BEFORE MOVING
BACK ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN IN THE
GRADIENT OF THETA E DISPLAY OF THE NAM AND I WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO
ACTUALLY CALL IT A WARM FRONT. THE NET RESULT WILL BE TO BRING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW AND THE ABOVE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLENDS FOR THE FORECASTS. EXPECT DRAY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL WAS PREDICTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES FROM 6 TO 9 PM
TONIGHT...HOWEVER CHOSE TO IGNORE THIS DUE TO THE LACK OF
ORGANIZATION SHOWING UP ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES CONFINED TO MAINLY TIMING
ISSUES.

ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE AREA. VERY FEW TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT SOME TERRAIN INDUCED BOUNDARIES MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WE
MAY SEE A LULL BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SKIRTING THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL  CONTINUE TO FEATURE SHORTWAVE AFTER
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE PERIOD
FAIRLY UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY BROAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS TIMING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MAY
DIFFER QUITE A BIT. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR A WHILE WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR LOWER
VALLEY FOG 6Z TO 13Z...AND THIS COULD AFFECT LOZ AND SME. THE FOG
FROM NEARBY VALLEYS MAY ALSO LIFT INTO SJS. MID AND LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER ABOUT 10Z AS MOISTURE
INCREASES DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING EAST. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND
OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN THE MENTION OF
SOME VCSH FOR ANY CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CERTAINTY ON EXACT SET UP AND WHETHER OR NOT TAF
SITES WILL BE AFFECTED IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

 359 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS WEAK VORT MAX MOVES NORTHEAST AS WELL. MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR MESO MODEL IS DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB OF
INITIALIZING ONGOING PRECIP. GOING ALONG WITH ITS OUTPUT...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH W/IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS AND THUS HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF CHANCE POPS THERE.

.LONG TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE AREA FOR NEARLY A WEEK IS FINALLY BEING STRETCHED OUT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS VERY GOOD NEWS
FOR THE CWA WHICH I THINK EVERYONE WILL AGREE HAS HAD ENOUGH OF THIS
RAIN. THATS NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL GO AWAY WITHOUT A FIGHT. THE
TRANSITION TIME BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WELL
ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL STILL BE FILLED WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER POPS IN GENERAL. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THERE WILL
SHOULD BE DECENT RAIN COVERAGE. HAVE KEPT ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH SHOULD BE LESS COVERAGE THAN THAT OF
LATE. WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL BE BACK IN LINE WITH MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND A FEW
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTION
BTR...MCB...HDC..MSY AND ASD AT 18Z. OFF AND ON CONVECTION WILL
WARRANT TEMPO GROUPS IN ALL TAF SITES WITH RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY AND LOWERED CEILINGS THROUGH 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 23Z WITH CEILINGS STEADY BETWEEN
2 AND 3KFT OVERNIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST LIGHT FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING AFTER 14Z MONDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE PERIOD WITH WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING ISOLATED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

11/MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  85  70  87 /  20  50  20  30
BTR  71  86  72  89 /  20  50  20  30
ASD  71  85  72  86 /  20  50  20  40
MSY  74  85  74  86 /  20  50  20  40
GPT  73  83  74  84 /  20  50  30  40
PQL  72  83  71  85 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 716 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC... A TROUGH EXTENDED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES OVER NE MN. A FRONT EXTENDED
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NRN MN. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS
LIFTING QUICKLY TO THE ENE INTO THE FAR ERN CWA LEAVING SCT/ISOLD
SHRA OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD TSRA OVER NW WI.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE SCT SHRA
INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FCST MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE
400-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEST AFT 06Z. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TUESDAY...SCT SHRA IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING AND STRONG DRYING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SHRTWV. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE KEWEENAW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

OTHER THAN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FAR E ON NW FLOW FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

THE EXITING 500MB LOW JUST W OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
LAKE HURON AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT. A SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION
WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND DIVE ACROSS WI
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR S.
IF THE STRONGER 12Z NAM PANS OUT IT COULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY
OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
CLIPPING MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR NOW...AS THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER.

THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE MOISTURE ABLE TO
ROUND THE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...AVERAGING ABOUT
6HRS WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AT 18Z THURSDAY
OFF THE GFS AND NAM...WHILE ACROSS MUCH WEAKER AND OVER CENTRAL MN
OFF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TREND FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

EXPECT GOOD MIXING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 750MB...IN
FACT ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 600MB. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT RH VALUES TO SLOWLY
FALL EACH AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTERIOR W AND FAR E. PW
VALUES OFF THE GFS FALL TO AROUND 0.35-0.4IN OVER THE E HALF OF
UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING /NEAR 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. AS NOTED...FIRE CONCERNS WILL INCREASE BUT WINDS SHOULD
KEEP IT FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.

THE NEXT 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS ALBERTA AND AND SASKATCHEWAN ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR SW FLOW TO RETURN ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE N PLAINS. THE SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA
AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH ND. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS MN THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL INTO CANADA...CLOSER TO THE WRAPPED UP 500MB
LOW. SO WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE BEST CHANCE OFF THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS UPPER
MI. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE A MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND S PLAINS AT
18Z SATURDAY TRACKING NE UP THE SFC TROUGH...BY 12Z SUNDAY THE SFC
LOW COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE S MN/WI BORDER TO IA...TO ILLINOIS.
THAT IS ENOUGH SPREAD TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND
SATURDAY...OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR
OR LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT ON TUE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR ANY TSRA
OVER MAINLY THE WRN LAKES. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO THU AS A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY SLOWLY
BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-
     263>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 434 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL HANDLING
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF WI...WHERE
THEY HAD FEWER CLOUDS /INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY/. MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ARE ABUNDANT IN THIS AREA...AND AS EXPECTED
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF AWAY FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI.

GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.5 IN OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 180-220 PERCENT OF NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR 1.6 TO 1.8IN. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT OR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN
WI...AROUND 45MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR AREA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A BIT
STRONGER...EVEN THROUGH INSTABILITY LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO MORE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FAR E UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 10-15KTS...TEMPS
HAVE ROSE NEAR 80F INLAND FROM LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON...AND HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT /MAINLY AT RACO/. THE WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z...AND WAS TAKEN
OFF THE TOP NEWS EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO NEAR THIS
AREA...BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC IS KEEPING MUCH IF ANYTHING FROM
ACCUMULATING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...NOT ONLY AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

THE COLD FRONT TO OUR W WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY...LIKELY AROUND SE LAKE SUPERIOR/E UPPER
MI. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE
SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID 70S OVER THE W HALF...AND LIKELY FAR E UPPER MI ON MONDAY.
LOOK FOR MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RESIDE OF THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z /NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THERE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST/...BEFORE EXPANDING E THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AFTER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...FCST WILL HINGE UPON HOW FAST THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN OR HOW FAST IT IS FORCED E BY NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS W AND
CNTRL NAMERICA. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WET WEATHER HERE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA...THEN DRY WEATHER MID
AND LATE WEEK AS APPROACHING MID/UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A TYPICAL
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN AS ICE FILLED HUDSON BAY AND THE CHILLY
GREAT LAKES ENHANCE SFC HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT. IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...TEMPS THIS WEEK SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM EARLY JUNE
NORMALS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TEMPS SOMEWHAT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST WEATHER IN THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR OR PERHAPS FAR WRN UPPER MI AND THEN ON INTO NRN ONTARIO BY
TUE MORNING. BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL
BE DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE AS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA AND MIDLEVEL DRYING ARRIVES. THIS DRYING IS MORE PRONOUNCED
OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS...MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN
MON AFTN MOVING INTO UPPER MI EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE W MON NIGHT. ALONG WITH APPROACH
OF THE ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROF...SOME SHRA WILL
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE W. AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPS E ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SHRA CHANCES WILL SPREAD E TUE
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING MAY FURTHER AID EXPANSION OF SHRA TUE OVER
THE E. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER OVER
THE E...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS EARLY IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH ALMOST NO MLCAPE INDICATED...WILL LEAVE THUNDER
MENTION OUT. BULK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY
JUST N OF UPPER MI...SO STEADIER RAIN SHOULD PASS BY TO THE N.
HOWEVER...THE KEWEENAW MAY GET BRUSHED BY THE MORE PERSISTENT SHRA
TUE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
CHILLY/MISERABLE AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND
BRISK WNW WINDS OFF COLD LAKE SUPERIOR. FOG THAT WILL BE EXPANDING
AND BECOMING MORE DENSE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/MON AND PROBABLY
DEVELOPING ON NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKES WHENEVER WINDS ARE ONSHORE. THE FOG WILL CLEAR OFF THE
LAKES TUE.

LINGERING SHRA SHOULD END FROM SW TO NE TUE AFTN AND TUE NIGHT AS
MID/UPPER TROF SLOWLY EDGES E. WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR WED/THU AS MID/UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
-SHRA/SPRINKLES AT SOME POINT LATER WED/EARLY THU DUE TO ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE ECMWF IS STRONGEST
WITH THIS FEATURE...FOLLOWED BY THE GEM. THE GFS IS WEAKEST AND
SHOWS NO IMPACT FROM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BACKING OFF ON
THIS WAVE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/PARTLY CLOUDY FCST. ALSO...CONCERNS
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SHORTWAVES TRACKING E ACROSS THE
CNTRL CONUS AND BRINGING A SHRA THREAT TO THE FCST AREA ARE
BASICALLY GONE NOW AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW DEPARTING
TROF/APPROACHING RIDGE SUPPRESSING SHORTWAVES. OTHERWISE...GRADIENT
NRLY WIND DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING S FROM NRN MANITOBA/HUDSON
BAY/NRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD A CHILLY DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON WED.
EXPECT 50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH MANY LAKESIDE LOCATIONS PROBABLY
HOLDING IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WELL IN THE INTERIOR...
EXPECT 60S TO LWR 70S. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW SIDE
OF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR
MASS. THU NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES
RIDGE OVERHEAD. TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS MIGHT SLIP INTO THE UPPER
30S.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...FCST FOR FRI THRU THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS W AND CNTRL NAMERICA CAN
EITHER PUSH RIDGE EASTWARD OR SUPPRESS IT. USUALLY THERE IS A BIAS
TO BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO QUICKLY IN THE LONGER RANGE...SO PLAN TO
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN REPRESENTED BY THE
ECMWF FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER
TO LINGER FRI/SAT AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
TO HUDSON BAY. TRAILING...DECAYING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE
MAY BRING SOME -SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI AS EARLY AS LATE FRI. WILL BE
SOMETHING TO LOOK FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR SUN AS IT APPEARS TROF WILL FORCE RIDGE
EASTWARD. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER FRI/SAT...BUT
OVERALL...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUMPED NNE AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED LOW
STRETCHING FROM E CO UP THROUGH MN AND N LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT SAW FROM 2130-23Z...SLIDING IN
FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR /WHERE THEY HAD MORE EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE ACROSS WI/. LOOK FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND FOG CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER W
LAKE SUPERIOR AND N LAKE MI TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON LIGHT S
WINDS. EXPECT THE MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK
MONDAY TO PUSH INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT IWD AND CMX. BEST CHANCE OF VIS FALLING
BELOW LIFR WILL BE AT CMX FROM 06Z THROUGH MID MORNING...WHERE LIGHT
WINDS MAY TURN MORE UPSLOPE/EASTERLY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FALL BELOW 3MI VIS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE W HALF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE E HALF. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS W LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS A LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S
JAMES BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON
BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-
     240>244-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 403 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL HANDLING
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF WI...WHERE
THEY HAD FEWER CLOUDS /INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY/. MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ARE ABUNDANT IN THIS AREA...AND AS EXPECTED
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF AWAY FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI.

GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.5 IN OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 180-220 PERCENT OF NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR 1.6 TO 1.8IN. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT OR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN
WI...AROUND 45MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR AREA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A BIT
STRONGER...EVEN THROUGH INSTABILITY LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO MORE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FAR E UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 10-15KTS...TEMPS
HAVE ROSE NEAR 80F INLAND FROM LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON...AND HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT /MAINLY AT RACO/. THE WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z...AND WAS TAKEN
OFF THE TOP NEWS EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO NEAR THIS
AREA...BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC IS KEEPING MUCH IF ANYTHING FROM
ACCUMULATING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...NOT ONLY AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

THE COLD FRONT TO OUR W WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY...LIKELY AROUND SE LAKE SUPERIOR/E UPPER
MI. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE
SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID 70S OVER THE W HALF...AND LIKELY FAR E UPPER MI ON MONDAY.
LOOK FOR MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RESIDE OF THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z /NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THERE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST/...BEFORE EXPANDING E THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY (LIKELY AROUND SOUTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR OR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN). THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS (FROM
IDAHO THROUGH NEVADA) AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...THEY WILL HELP STRENGTHEN
A SURFACE LOW (CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES) TO
AROUND 997MB AND MOVE IT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MODELS HAS IT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 00-09Z
ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AND NORTHERN
QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. ONE THING TO WATCH IS BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND
GEM-REGIONAL HAVE COME IN MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE LOW
TRACK (MOVING IT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MINNESOTA)...BUT IT
MAY BE TIED MORE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FEW WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW. FIRST WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY MORNING...AS FLOW TURNS
TO THE SOUTH AND LEADS TO BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. IT WILL
INITIALLY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK AND SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE BROAD WAA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THAT WAA TAKES SHAPE...WOULD EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BASED OFF THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
AS THAT SHIFT NORTH...ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OR TROUGH...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL
SOLUTION...AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND IT. THIS WILL
LARGELY AFFECT THE WEST/CENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN
SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. BEHIND THIS CONVECTION...EXPECT
DRY MID LEVEL AIR TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE ARRIVES.

THINK THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN. PWATS ARE 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING A TALL/SKINNY CAPE (MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG) WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH OF 10KFT. CONSISTENT WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS WOULD
SUPPORT SLOW RELATIVE MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IF
BACKBUILDING CAN OCCUR AS SEEN IN CORFIDI VECTORS. ALL OF THIS ADDS
UP TO A DECENT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THINK
OTHER SEVERE THREATS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED...UNLESS THE AFTERNOON
STORMS CAN TAP SOME OF THE MID LEVEL DRYING AND PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND BEHIND THE LOW AND HELP FROM A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY WOULD SUPPORT HAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA (BEST CHANCES OVER THE WEST). THUNDER CHANCES
LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN.

DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THERE TO BE FOG OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...HAVE FOLLOWED WIND
DIRECTIONS ON WHERE TO PULL THE FOG ONSHORE. THERE COULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO AFFECT SOME OF THE
SHORELINE AREAS.

BEHIND THE LOW...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS. THESE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
EAST FROM NEBRASKA TO OHIO ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE THEN
LOOKS TO REMAIN INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN AND FAR NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION JUST OFF TO THE WEST
AND PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AFTER A FEW
DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RETURN TO MORE NORMAL EARLY JUNE VALUES. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
FROM WEDNESDAY ON WILL BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE
PREEXISTING NORTHERLY FLOW AND HELP FROM ANY LAKE BREEZES THAT
DEVELOP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUMPED NNE AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED LOW
STRETCHING FROM E CO UP THROUGH MN AND N LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT SAW FROM 2130-23Z...SLIDING IN
FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR /WHERE THEY HAD MORE EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE ACROSS WI/. LOOK FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND FOG CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER W
LAKE SUPERIOR AND N LAKE MI TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON LIGHT S
WINDS. EXPECT THE MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK
MONDAY TO PUSH INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT IWD AND CMX. BEST CHANCE OF VIS FALLING
BELOW LIFR WILL BE AT CMX FROM 06Z THROUGH MID MORNING...WHERE LIGHT
WINDS MAY TURN MORE UPSLOPE/EASTERLY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FALL BELOW 3MI VIS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE W HALF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE E HALF. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS W LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS A LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S
JAMES BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON
BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-
     240>244-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 413 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

STILL STUCK IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN TO START THIS PERIOD...THOUGH
WE WILL FINALLY START TURNING THE CORNER IN TERMS OF ROOTING THIS
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OUT OF HERE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALOFT...THERE ARE TWO KEY FEATURES THAT WILL IMPACT THE MPX
CWA...THE FIRST IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER SE SODAK THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MPX
AREA AS IT WORK NE THIS EVENING. THE SECOND FEATURE IS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH BACK BY THE BLACK HILLS THAT WILL BRING A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LIGHTER AND LIKELY MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF SW
MN INTO THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

OUT THE GATE...WE HAVE SEE AN E-W ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS NRN IA WITHIN A ZONE OF CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT IS
GETTING FORCED UP AND OVER AN OUTFLOW INDUCED BOUNDARY. BIG QUESTION
FOR THE MPX AREA IS HOW WILL THIS IMPACT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY
FROM ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THIS WILL KEEP THE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE TRAINING IS MORE
LIKELY...BUT MESOANALYSIS HAS SHOWN THAT MLCAPES ACROSS WRN MN HAVE
RECOVERED TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OUT IN WRN MN WHERE THE SUN
HAS BRIEFLY MADE AN APPEARANCE. AS THIS CLEARING WORKS EAST...DO
EXPECT THE CAPE RECOVERY TO WORK EAST WITH IT AS WELL...SO LINE
CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE NEAR SIOUX FALLS WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO
SRN MN. FOLLOWED THE HRRR TO WORK THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AS IT HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON IT ALL AFTERNOON
AND IT MATCHES UP WELL WITH HOW THE HRRR BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE OF
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO MN AHEAD OF THE SODAK SHORT
WAVE. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE ABOUT TODAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
IS WE ACTUALLY HAVE SHEAR TODAY...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MAINLY
WIND THREAT WITH THIS LINE AS IT WORKS ENE. THERE IS GOOD NEWS
THOUGH ABOUT THE ADDITION OF SHEAR TODAY...AND THAT IS THAT ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AS WE HEAD FARTHER OUT IN
TIME...SO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...NSSL Q3 RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A LARGE SWATH
OF OUR AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH PARTS WESTERN
STEARNS COUNTY UP CLOSER TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT. SO
ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTED THIS NEXT BATCH OF STORMS TO BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...RECENT WET CONDITIONS HAVE OUR FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS
AT INCREDIBLY LOW LEVELS AT THE MOMENT...WITH CURRENT 1 HR AND 3 HR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DOWN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

THIS SECONDARY WAVE BACK IN NODAK IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE AS
TO HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITH IT...BUT EXPECT IT TO INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE NW CWA LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. GOING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...THIS WILL WILL TRAVEL
MORE OR LESS DOWN I-94...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDS. FORTUNATELY...ANY ACTIVITY WE
SEE MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHTER /AS PWATS BEGIN TO RECEDE FROM
THERE CURRENT LEVELS AROUND 1.75 INCHES...WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. SO FOR THAT
REASON...CONTINUED TO LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE THROUGH 18Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

BY MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT... AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME NEED TO KEEP POPS GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
LINGERING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.
AFTER THAT... WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO KEEP THINGS DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... AT THAT POINT
WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEP
BACK NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA... CLOSER TO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY... FRONTOGENESIS... AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER... CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PCPN FARTHER NORTH GIVEN
SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE 700-500MB LAYER AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED NORTH AND SATURATE THINGS NEAR 700MB.
SO... ALLOWED FOR CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SCOOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH.

NEXT SYSTEM AFTER THAT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY AS FLOW TURNS A
LITTLE MORE ZONAL. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THEN HEADS MORE EASTERLY BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEAST AGAIN. MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF ANY LEAD
SHORT WAVES AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT LOOKS
LIKE MN/WI WILL BE BACK IN UPPER SW FLOW LATE THIS WEEK...MERITING
CHANCE POPS. WITH UPPER LOW NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE BORDER... THIS
WILL NOT BE AN EXCEEDINGLY WARM PERIOD...AND IN FACT...TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. ONCE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
NEXT WEEKEND...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 70 NEXT WEEKEND OVER CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WISC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

FOR THE FIRST THREE HOURS...EXPECT FOCUS FOR STORMS TO SHIFT INTO
SRN/SE MN WITH MAINLY SHRA FOR WI TERMINALS. EXPECT THIS FOCUS TO
BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WAVE OVER NEB LEADS TO ANOTHER NORTHWARD
SURGE IN THE LLJ. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF MEMBERS
FOR BRING THIS SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO THE AREA...WHICH WAS
ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN GOING TAFS. MAIN CHANGE WITH 18Z TAF WAS
TO BACK DOWN ON TS MENTION FOR AXN/STC AS THE MAIN TSRA ACTIVITY
WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO GO SOUTH OF THESE FIELDS. AS THE SFC LOW
WANDERS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES BAGGY...WE
SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS EXPAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...THOUGH HRRR CIG FORECAST WOULD INDICATE THE GFSLAMP IS
OVERDOING THINGS A BIT...SO TOOK A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO
CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...WILL START TO SEE THE COLD FRONT MAKE DECENT
PROGRESS ACROSS WI AS WRLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
SHOULD ALSO HELP IMPROVE ANY LOWER CIGS LEFT OVER IN THE MORNING.

KMSP...CONFIDENT HIGH IN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TEMPORARY LULL IN TSRA HAPPENING
UNTIL ACTIVITY FROM NEB WAVE ARRIVES. BASED ON THE HRRR AND HOPWRF
MEMBERS...THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 1Z AND 3Z...WITH
MORE TEMPORARY IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN +TSRA. THESE STORMS MAY BLOW
OUT OF THE MSP AREA A BIT FASTER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON CIG LEVELS BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND BAGGY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS OR
EVEN FOG. FOR THE AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO GENERATE MORE SCT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO INSERTED A VCSH FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR PSBL WITH SCHC TSRA EARLY...THEN VFR. WIND WNW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...TDK/TRH
AVIATION...MPG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 129 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE SECOND WAVE OF TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SW MN DUE TO THE
INCREASING LLJ THAT HAS INCREASED SINCE SATURDAY EVENING. BASED ON
THIS CONTINUED LLJ WHICH WILL FOCUS THE SHRA/TSRA ALONG A SW/NE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MN...CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER. THE MAIN
PROBLEM AFTER THIS LLJ WEAKENS THIS MORNING...WHERE WILL THE
BOUNDARY HOLD UP ONCE THE TSRA DECREASE. FFA REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 AM...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE FOR MORE CONVECTION FIRING THIS
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT...WILL LIKELY EXTEND THE WATCH AT LEAST UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN EXTREMELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN ORDER OF 2 OR GREATER.
THUS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES WILL LEAD TO
FLOODING. WITH ALREADY AREAS RECEIVING BETWEEN 2 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF EC
MN...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE. SVR WX THREAT WILL REMAIN
THE FLOODING ASPECT...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SVR WIND
GUST/LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTN. SHEAR
VALUES HAVE INCREASED SOME...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN/TSTMS TO CONTINUE INTO MON AS
THE LOW PRES CENTER TAKES A POSITION OVER ERN MN INTO WRN WI...
BCMG MORE WOUND UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WHILE AN UPR LVL TROF
EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE UPR LVL LOW WILL HELP LIFT THE SFC
FEATURE OUT OF THE AREA BY MON NIGHT...BUT PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM...PRODUCING ADDITIONAL LIGHTER
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY CENTRAL-NRN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE MON
NIGHT... THEN INTO ERN MN AND WRN WI TUE MRNG BEFORE EXITING. THE
MAIN HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE HVY RAIN SINCE UPR LVL SUPPORT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS VERY WEAK DESPITE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
THE ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. PWATS FOR MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT LEAST ARND 1.5 INCHES...SOME SPOTS IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE
COVERAGE AREA HIGHER...AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VIRTUALLY
NO CAPPING AND WEAK STORM MOTIONS...MAKING THEM EFFICIENT
RAINMAKERS. COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS DRIER
HIGH PRES ARRIVES...ALLOWING FOR A PRECIP-FREE PERIOD STARTING
MIDDAY TUE. AS FOR TEMPS...THE PASSAGE OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN TEMPS WILL DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES MON INTO TUE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CAA IS EXPECTED
AS FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ZONAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO
LOOK ACTIVE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS
DEVELOPING OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH MAY IMPACT THE AREA.
THE FIRST OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE S OF THE
COVERAGE AREA WED INTO THU...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SLOWLY
MOVE IN FROM THE NW FRI INTO SAT. NEITHER ONE LOOKS PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT WITHIN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN
THE REGION /HIGH MOISTURE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT...MODEST
INSTABILITY/...THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FOR AN ALREADY VERY SOGGY AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

FOR THE FIRST THREE HOURS...EXPECT FOCUS FOR STORMS TO SHIFT INTO
SRN/SE MN WITH MAINLY SHRA FOR WI TERMINALS. EXPECT THIS FOCUS TO
BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WAVE OVER NEB LEADS TO ANOTHER NORTHWARD
SURGE IN THE LLJ. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF MEMBERS
FOR BRING THIS SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO THE AREA...WHICH WAS
ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN GOING TAFS. MAIN CHANGE WITH 18Z TAF WAS
TO BACK DOWN ON TS MENTION FOR AXN/STC AS THE MAIN TSRA ACTIVITY
WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO GO SOUTH OF THESE FIELDS. AS THE SFC LOW
WANDERS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES BAGGY...WE
SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS EXPAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...THOUGH HRRR CIG FORECAST WOULD INDICATE THE GFSLAMP IS
OVERDOING THINGS A BIT...SO TOOK A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO
CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...WILL START TO SEE THE COLD FRONT MAKE DECENT
PROGRESS ACROSS WI AS WRLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
SHOULD ALSO HELP IMPROVE ANY LOWER CIGS LEFT OVER IN THE MORNING.

KMSP...CONFIDENT HIGH IN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TEMPORARY LULL IN TSRA HAPPENING
UNTIL ACTIVITY FROM NEB WAVE ARRIVES. BASED ON THE HRRR AND HOPWRF
MEMBERS...THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 1Z AND 3Z...WITH
MORE TEMPORARY IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN +TSRA. THESE STORMS MAY BLOW
OUT OF THE MSP AREA A BIT FASTER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON CIG LEVELS BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND BAGGY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS OR
EVEN FOG. FOR THE AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO GENERATE MORE SCT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO INSERTED A VCSH FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR PSBL WITH SCHC TSRA EARLY...THEN VFR. WIND WNW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 359 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

Overall pattern has changed to a more progressive and unsettled
regime through the upcoming week. While there will no doubt be
periods when there will be no precipitation the proximity of a
couple frontal boundaries and the vagaries of the models further out
in time will make it difficult to go dry in most periods.

Short term concerns will focus on the evolution of upstream
convection over NE and KS and any severe threat over northwest MO. A
number of Hi Res models such as the HRRR and local WRF as well as
the latest NAM and GFS track the current developing NE MCS eastward.
At the same time activity blossoms southward towards central KS
where a strengthening southerly low-level jet feeds moderately
unstable air under an increasingly diffluent flow aloft. Too many
models favor this evolution to ignore. These models propagate the KS
convection southeast this evening which is supported by the Corfidi
vectors. As the the low level jet veers overnight it will maintain
the KS MCS as it moves into southwest MO. The convection in between
these two core MCSs will likely weaken as it moves into the western
CWA late this evening. The severe threat will be confined to
northwest MO this evening with an isolated severe wind gust
possible.

By sunrise the main portion of the convection is expected to be near
or have exited the eastern and southern counties. However, can`t
rule out scattered convection bubbling back up during the morning
and afternoon hours as the southwesterly low-level jet will enhance
convergence along any residual outflow boundaries as well as a weak
cold front entering the CWA. Temperatures will be problematic due to
any convection as well as residual cloud cover.

Monday night into Tuesday could see scattered convection pop-up
wherever the weak cold front stalls, which favors the southern
counties. Shortwave riding aloft spreads eastward across the Central
Plains on Tuesday allowing an elevated warm mixed layer to spread
east while the front retreats northeast as a warm front. As has been
noted for the last couple of days the combination of moderate to
strong shear coupled with strong instability and the added low-level
shear along/north of the warm front signal the increasing likelihood
of severe storms along and north of the warm front. Models have been
trending lifting the warm front further north over the past couple
of runs, pushing the convection and severe threat from northern MO
into IA.

Wednesday could see a trailing cold front settle south through the
CWA, but not before temperatures could reach 90 over the southern
half of the forecast area. This boundary will become the focus for
any additional rain chances. The GFS and ECMWF have settle this
front to near the MO/AR border by Thursday before it stalls.
Confidence has improved on this occurring and have started to lower
PoPs across at least northern MO for Thursday and Friday. Convective
chances increase as we head into next weekend as another moderately
strong upper trough sweeps through the Rockies and forces the front
north as a warm front, allowing rain chances to increase over the
CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

VFR with moderately strong southerly winds till later this evening.

While models are in generally good agreement on developing a couple
of MCSs upstream of the terminals this afternoon/evening, there is
considerable uncertainty on how they evolve these features and their
arrival time. Leaning towards the last couple of runs of the HRRR
although slowing it down some based on other short range model output
as well as NAM/GFS. Will take a first shot at defining a window via
TEMPO group knowing that later forecasts will shift timing some. The
post MCS environment will likely yield chaotic winds for several
hours before settling on winds veering to the southwest. Ceilings run
the whole gamut from MVFR to mid level VFR. Also can`t rule out
residual convection reforming in the wake of the MCS.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 340 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE UNTIL A MORE BONAFIDE CHANCE
OF STORMS RETURNS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH EVEN THEN THE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAY ONLY COME IN AN ISOLATED DOSE.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SEEN ACROSS
THE AREA AT MID AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS MARGINAL
BUOYANCY DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. IN THE MEAN-
TIME...SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AS
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND PARK CITY THIS AFTERNOON /WHERE WE HAD
PEA-SIZE HAIL REPORTED EARLIER/. WE GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS ALONG
WITH MOST 12 UTC GUIDANCE AND MORE RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS...SUCH
THAT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 30S IN SOME WESTERN
VALLEYS LIKE AROUND LIVINGSTON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.

MON...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S F IN MOST AREAS GIVEN MUCH MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE THAT TODAY. WE FOLLOWED THE 12 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED/
MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF MOS OUTPUT TO BUILD FORECAST HIGHS SINCE THAT
GUIDANCE OFTEN DOES WELL COME SUMMER...AND IT HAS VERIFIED WELL ON
SOME DAYS RECENTLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT...PERHAPS SLIDING AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS BY
MON NIGHT...BUT THAT CHANCE IS DRIVEN BY ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND
SO THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS IS VERY LOW THROUGH MON NIGHT.

TUE...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
IS APT TO BE AUGMENTED SOMEWHAT FROM LOCAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...SO
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN COULD BE DISRUPTED IF THERE
IS ENOUGH DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OVER WESTERN SD
AND NORTHERN NEB EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TUE AS SOME 12 UTC MODELS
SUGGEST. EVEN SO...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
YIELD MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG...AND MORE LIKE 1000 J/KG IF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT STYMIED TOO MUCH. WE ARE CARRYING
40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES OF STORMS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT OVER MOST OF
THE AREA /A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER PRIOR FORECASTS/. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE 12
UTC GUIDANCE AND 09 AND 15 UTC SREF RUNS FOR THE 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR
TO BE LESS THAN 30 KT ACROSS THE AREA AND IF THAT IS THE CASE THEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN MARGINAL AND TRANSIENT SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOST DAYS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES MAY COOL TO
BELOW-AVERAGE VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SHOWS A MEAN 500-MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES IN
THAT LARGER-SCALE PATTERN. THE FIRST OF THOSE WAVES SET FOR WED IS
IN THE BEST POSITION TO HAVE ACCESS TO DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORTED
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THAT WAVE MAY BE IN THE DAKOTAS BY PEAK HEATING
WED AFTERNOON WHEN IT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO FOSTER STORMS.
A STRONGER WAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION THU INTO FRI MAY END UP
BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND WE DID
DECIDE TO LOWER FORECAST TEMPERATURES THU THROUGH SAT USING THE 12
UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WE ACTUALLY CHOSE TO STAY ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF THAT CONSENSUS EVEN THOUGH WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THOUGH.
THAT WAS IN RESPECT TO 1/ MAINTAINING SOME FORECAST CONTINUITY AND
2/ THE VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE EARLY JUNE SUN ANGLE WILL BE
GOOD ENOUGH TO WARM HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IF THE SHOWER COVERAGE
IS NOT TOO GREAT. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY INTO THE EVENING DUE TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THAT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AS
THE SUN SETS...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY 06 UTC THAT
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18 UTC MONDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/074 051/077 053/076 052/071 049/068 047/071 052/079
    31/B    24/T    53/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 038/074 045/075 045/073 043/070 042/068 042/069 044/077
    43/T    35/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 046/076 049/079 053/077 051/073 048/071 048/072 049/080
    31/B    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 048/073 050/077 055/077 055/073 048/068 049/072 051/079
    31/U    13/T    44/T    33/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 047/074 050/074 053/076 053/073 049/067 050/072 049/078
    31/U    14/T    44/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
BHK 046/068 047/073 052/074 052/071 047/066 047/068 048/073
    41/B    12/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    22/T
SHR 043/074 047/074 048/073 048/070 044/068 045/069 046/076
    31/B    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 842 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE, DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. UPDATED THE
GRIDS TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS DIRECTLY
UPSTREAM, THEN TAPERED THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR HOUR #3 INTO ONEIDA
COUNTY, AS WE ANTICIPATE WEAKENING.

NOT MUCH SUPPORT REMAINING FOR CONVECTION DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL ADVANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SW FLOW HAS WRMD THE AREA NICELY THIS AFTN AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
TOCH 90F ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN NEAR SYR. SOME CONV HAS DVLPD OVER
XTRM WRN NY ALONG THE FRICTIONAL CONV BNDRY SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND
ARE MVG NE ATTM. OTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL ARM WEAKEN THE CONV AS IT
MVES EAST AND HAS LTL IN THE WAY OF SHWRS OVRNGT. NAM HOLDS CONV
TOGETHER BETTER AND HAS SOME WEAKENING CONV THRU MUCH OF THE NRN
THIRD OF THE AREA...LOW RESOLUTION GFS KIND SMEARS THE DEPICTION
OF THE CONV WHILE THE EURO GNRLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY.

WITH THE CONV ALREADY FIRING...DESPITE THE MODLE CONSENSUS HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...PRIMARILY OF THE NRN ZONES
TNGT IN CASE SOME OF THE CONV HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DRIFTS EAST AS
THE NAM SHOWS.

OTRW...A QUIET NGT WITH MODERATE TEMPS AND WINDS AHD OF THE APRCHG
FNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS USUAL...NOT A CLR CUT FNTL PASSAGE WITH THE MODELS
CONCENTRATING MUCH OF THE CONV TMRW ALONG A PRE FNTL TROF PASSING
THRU THE AREA BEFORE 18Z. NAM IS ONCE AGAIN AN OUTLIER WITH A
SECOND LINE OF CONV DVLPG ALONG THE COLD FNT LTR IN THE DAY AND IN
THE EARLY EVE. NAM FCSTD SNDGS ARE INDEED QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES BETTER THAN 1500 J/KG. GFS AND EURO DO ALSO SHOW SOME AFNT
CONV AS THE UPR WV AND SFC FNT APRCHS...SO HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
THE LIKELY POPS WHERE THERE/S THE BEST CHANCE PCPN EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH THE TROF...BUT WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS THRU THE AFTN AND
INTO PART OF THE EVE TO CVR THE POSSIBILTY OF A SECOND ROUND OF
CONV.

NEXT WX SYSTEM ARRIVES THUR AND WHILE THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EURO AND
GFS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THE NAM OFFERS A MUCH DFRNT
SOLN. EURO/GFS SOLN KEEP AND OPEN WV ACROSS THE LAKES AND PUSH A
WEAKER CLSD SFC LOW ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WED...
CONCENTRATING SHWRS AND TSTMS ALONG THE OLD SFC OVER PA. NAM
CLOSES OFF THE UPR LOW AND WRAPS UP A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM OVER
THE SRN LAKES BRINGING THE CONV FURTHER NORTH. WILL LEAN TWRD THE
LESS DRAMATIC GFS/EURO AND KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA...HIER
IN THE SOUTH...FOR THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO DRY AND MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EXPECT WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FOR ALL INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BEAUTY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN WARMER
VALUES ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
BEYOND THIS...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST. FOR NOW...HAVE ADVERTISED CHC POPS BEGINNING MONDAY WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE STAGES OF NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT COOLER YET SEASONABLE TEMPS /LOW TO MID
70S/ THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF KSYR. AT KSYR AN AREA OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING TOWARD THE TERMINAL NOW. WHILE IT MAY
WEAKEN SOME, IT DOES APPEAR IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/THUNDER. IFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BUT ITS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN
MAY LESSEN A BIT MORE IN INTENSITY BEFORE IT ARRIVES AT THE
TERMINAL. AT KELM AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT BRIEF IFR FOG PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WITH OVERNIGHT MINS NEAR THE CROSSOVER TEMP. HOWEVER I
AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN LEAVING IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED RAIN/STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTER 14Z
AS PRECIP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE PREDOMINATE RA WITH A PROB30
GROUP AT ALL SITES FOR THUNDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS WILL BE CAPABLY OF SHORT DURATION MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.


LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR EARLY IN SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

WED...VFR.

THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.

FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...HEDEN






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 828 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SW FLOW HAS WRMD THE AREA NICELY THIS AFTN AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
TOCH 90F ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN NEAR SYR. SOME CONV HAS DVLPD OVER
XTRM WRN NY ALONG THE FRICTIONAL CONV BNDRY SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND
ARE MVG NE ATTM. OTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL ARM WEAKEN THE CONV AS IT
MVES EAST AND HAS LTL IN THE WAY OF SHWRS OVRNGT. NAM HOLDS CONV
TOGETHER BETTER AND HAS SOME WEAKENING CONV THRU MUCH OF THE NRN
THIRD OF THE AREA...LOW RESOLUTION GFS KIND SMEARS THE DEPICTION
OF THE CONV WHILE THE EURO GNRLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY.

WITH THE CONV ALREADY FIRING...DESPITE THE MODLE CONSENSUS HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...PRIMARILY OF THE NRN ZONES
TNGT IN CASE SOME OF THE CONV HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DRIFTS EAST AS
THE NAM SHOWS.

OTRW...A QUIET NGT WITH MODERATE TEMPS AND WINDS AHD OF THE APRCHG
FNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS USUAL...NOT A CLR CUT FNTL PASSAGE WITH THE MODELS
CONCENTRATING MUCH OF THE CONV TMRW ALONG A PRE FNTL TROF PASSING
THRU THE AREA BEFORE 18Z. NAM IS ONCE AGAIN AN OUTLIER WITH A
SECOND LINE OF CONV DVLPG ALONG THE COLD FNT LTR IN THE DAY AND IN
THE EARLY EVE. NAM FCSTD SNDGS ARE INDEED QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES BETTER THAN 1500 J/KG. GFS AND EURO DO ALSO SHOW SOME AFNT
CONV AS THE UPR WV AND SFC FNT APRCHS...SO HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
THE LIKELY POPS WHERE THERE/S THE BEST CHANCE PCPN EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH THE TROF...BUT WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS THRU THE AFTN AND
INTO PART OF THE EVE TO CVR THE POSSIBILTY OF A SECOND ROUND OF
CONV.

NEXT WX SYSTEM ARRIVES THUR AND WHILE THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EURO AND
GFS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THE NAM OFFERS A MUCH DFRNT
SOLN. EURO/GFS SOLN KEEP AND OPEN WV ACROSS THE LAKES AND PUSH A
WEAKER CLSD SFC LOW ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WED...
CONCENTRATING SHWRS AND TSTMS ALONG THE OLD SFC OVER PA. NAM
CLOSES OFF THE UPR LOW AND WRAPS UP A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM OVER
THE SRN LAKES BRINGING THE CONV FURTHER NORTH. WILL LEAN TWRD THE
LESS DRAMATIC GFS/EURO AND KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA...HIER
IN THE SOUTH...FOR THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO DRY AND MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EXPECT WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FOR ALL INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BEAUTY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN WARMER
VALUES ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
BEYOND THIS...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST. FOR NOW...HAVE ADVERTISED CHC POPS BEGINNING MONDAY WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE STAGES OF NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT COOLER YET SEASONABLE TEMPS /LOW TO MID
70S/ THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF KSYR. AT KSYR AN AREA OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING TOWARD THE TERMINAL NOW. WHILE IT MAY
WEAKEN SOME, IT DOES APPEAR IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/THUNDER. IFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BUT ITS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN
MAY LESSEN A BIT MORE IN INTENSITY BEFORE IT ARRIVES AT THE
TERMINAL. AT KELM AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT BRIEF IFR FOG PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WITH OVERNIGHT MINS NEAR THE CROSSOVER TEMP. HOWEVER I
AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN LEAVING IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED RAIN/STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTER 14Z
AS PRECIP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE PREDOMINATE RA WITH A PROB30
GROUP AT ALL SITES FOR THUNDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS WILL BE CAPABLY OF SHORT DURATION MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.


LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR EARLY IN SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

WED...VFR.

THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.

FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...HEDEN






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 947 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

MINOR UPDATES TO POPS AS PCPN CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN NOW CONFINED
TO THE NE FA. CLOUDS ALSO CLEARING NICELY FROM VALLEY WEST. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS POINTING TO SOME BR FORMATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
FA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING SO CURRENT FOG OUTLOOK LOOKS OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND ABLE TO
START TRIMMING POPS ACROSS WESTERN EDGE. ALSO SEEING MORE BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER SO MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
ADJUSTING CLOUD TRENDS AND POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

UPPER LOW NEAR BEMIDJI AT MID AFTERNOON WITH SFC LOW NEAR HIBBING
MN. WRAPAROUND RAIN AREA OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW END OF THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FCST TO SEE SHOWERS TIL LATE
TONIGHT.

QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF CLEARING AND TEMPS AND IF ANY FOG
FORMS. RAP MODEL AVIATION FCSTS DO INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW
CLOUDS PSBL IN THE MINOT-DEVILS LAKE-JAMESTOWN REGION LATE TONIGHT
SO COORD WITH WFO BIS AND INSERTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN FAR WRN
FCST AREA. DO EXPECT CLEARING TO PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT REACHING THE RRV TOWARD 06Z AND THEN FAR EAST AROUND 12Z.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER WITH SUNSHINE AND MIDDAY/AFTN
CUMULUS CLOUDS. WARMER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF RAIN
TO BYPASS OUR IMMEDIATE FCST AREA TO OUR SOUTH TUES AFTN-NIGHT
WITH RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SD/FAR SRN MN/IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WRN CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF A FRONT ENTERING
ERN ND WED AFTN AND THEN SPREADING EAST WED NIGHT. BRIEF BREAK
PSBL BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AFTN. MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUES TO LOOK WET
AND COOL. ALL MODELS START WITH A 500MB LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND ZONAL FLOW TO ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER LOTS OF DIFFERENCE AFTER
THIS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER WAVE FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HARD TO FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR TIME FRAME AND GO
DRY AS MODELS HAVE MARKED DIFFERENCES WITH THEIR PCPN FIELDS. THERE
WILL BE DRY PERIODS MIXED IN BUT WILL STICK WITH INHERITED BROAD
PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT. WITH THE WET AND CLOUDY PATTERN TEMPS WILL
STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS BECOMING ISOLD AND CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE BJI
TAF SITE. AS RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO SHRINK EXPECT CIGS TO
BECOMING VFR. ONLY CATCH COULD BE TOWARDS MORNING IF ANY IFR
CIGS/BR CAN DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING AND RECENT RAIN.
WILL MONITOR.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 943 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC...NO CHANGES
REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

DID EXPAND THE FOG MENTION TO ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ITS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT SHOULD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
BECOME NECESSARY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER
50S ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
SKIES CLEAR...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THUS...WIDESPREAD SURFACE SATURATION IS EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 21 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO
SUPPORT THE FOG THREAT AT MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF
RECENT RAINFALL AND GREEN-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

UPPER LOW IDENTIFIED ON 18Z/NAM MODEL OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW IN MINNESOTA WILL ALSO EXIT THE
REGION LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LARGE CLOUD
SHIELD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL SHRINK SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST WILL END BY SUNSET. AS
CLOUDS DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
INCREASES CENTRAL AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALREADY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY BRUSHING THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. FOR
TEMPERATURES IT WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
EXITING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE
DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A BREAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SET UP
WARMING AND INSTABILITY AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OFF AND ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MIGHT BRING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
IMPULSES REACHES NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN COOLING TO THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A COOL...MOIST NEAR-
SURFACE LAYER IN PLACE IN A SURFACE HIGH. THEREAFTER...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING
KDIK...LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 643 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND ABLE TO
START TRIMMING POPS ACROSS WESTERN EDGE. ALSO SEEING MORE BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER SO MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
ADJUSTING CLOUD TRENDS AND POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

UPPER LOW NEAR BEMIDJI AT MID AFTERNOON WITH SFC LOW NEAR HIBBING
MN. WRAPAROUND RAIN AREA OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW END OF THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FCST TO SEE SHOWERS TIL LATE
TONIGHT.

QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF CLEARING AND TEMPS AND IF ANY FOG
FORMS. RAP MODEL AVIATION FCSTS DO INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW
CLOUDS PSBL IN THE MINOT-DEVILS LAKE-JAMESTOWN REGION LATE TONIGHT
SO COORD WITH WFO BIS AND INSERTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN FAR WRN
FCST AREA. DO EXPECT CLEARING TO PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT REACHING THE RRV TOWARD 06Z AND THEN FAR EAST AROUND 12Z.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER WITH SUNSHINE AND MIDDAY/AFTN
CUMULUS CLOUDS. WARMER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF RAIN
TO BYPASS OUR IMMEDIATE FCST AREA TO OUR SOUTH TUES AFTN-NIGHT
WITH RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SD/FAR SRN MN/IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WRN CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF A FRONT ENTERING
ERN ND WED AFTN AND THEN SPREADING EAST WED NIGHT. BRIEF BREAK
PSBL BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AFTN. MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUES TO LOOK WET
AND COOL. ALL MODELS START WITH A 500MB LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND ZONAL FLOW TO ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER LOTS OF DIFFERENCE AFTER
THIS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER WAVE FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HARD TO FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR TIME FRAME AND GO
DRY AS MODELS HAVE MARKED DIFFERENCES WITH THEIR PCPN FIELDS. THERE
WILL BE DRY PERIODS MIXED IN BUT WILL STICK WITH INHERITED BROAD
PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT. WITH THE WET AND CLOUDY PATTERN TEMPS WILL
STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS BECOMING ISOLD AND CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE BJI
TAF SITE. AS RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO SHRINK EXPECT CIGS TO
BECOMING VFR. ONLY CATCH COULD BE TOWARDS MORNING IF ANY IFR
CIGS/BR CAN DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING AND RECENT RAIN.
WILL MONITOR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 122 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...ADDED COUNTIES TO THE FLOOD WATCH...

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IN
BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...AND WARD COUNTIES. REPORTS AND RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN PARTS OF THESE
COUNTIES SINCE SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT AN AREA FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
JAMESTOWN IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR GARRISON EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THERE TO NEAR HARVEY
AN JUST WEST OF JAMESTOWN...AND SATELLITE PICS INDICATED
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SUPPORTS WHAT THE LATEST
MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THUS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A FLOOD WATCH
UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON - MINOT AND BOTTINEAU TO JAMESTOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. RAISED CHANCES IN BURKE AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES WHERE
SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING...AND LOWERED CHANCES FARTHER
WEST OVER DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES WHERE THE SHOWERS HAD MOVED
EAST. MAIN EFFORTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN TO TRY AND VERIFY RADAR
ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL FROM THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. CURRENT
REPORTS WERE OF 2-5 INCHES IN DIVIDE COUNTY...WITH A 3.5 INCH REPORT
FROM BURG TOWNSHIP. STILL AWAITING WORD FROM PLACES IN NORTHERN
WILLIAMS COUNTY...AND WILL BE UPDATING THE AREAL (OVERLAND) FLOOD
WARNING IN PLACE IN WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
UNTIL 230 PM CDT. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST POPS LOWER OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL. CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WEST LAST NIGHT HAS
MADE IT EAST ALMOST OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. THERE
IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR FUTURE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THEN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS THE WEST.

PORTIONS OF WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ROOTED OVER THE NORTHWEST ALONG
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS THE SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH FORECAST PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT
FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY. WITHIN THE PAST 7 DAYS A LARGE SWATH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVED 6 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
SUNDAY COULD PROVE TO BE TOO MUCH FOR THE SATURATED GROUND TO
HANDLE AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND RAP AND PRODUCE
GREATER AMOUNTS OF QPF. FOR THIS FORECAST UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS THE 00 UTC NAM INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY AND DID
NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...EXPECT FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS IN RESPONSE TO ONE OF MULTIPLE
WAVES WORKING THROUGH A BROAD MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING A RISK OF SHOWERS AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE CENTRAL AND EAST REMAIN DRY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM REINFORCING UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE BEST
THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY DRY REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTH DAKOTA
IN BETWEEN MORE ACTIVE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MODELS DIVERGE
A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLIP OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...WHILE GFS IS DRIER. BUT IN GENERAL WE REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO BECOME SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BE MORE NUMEROUS
FROM KMOT TO KJMS...AND REMAIN OVER THESE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001-002-
009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-004-011-012-
021>023-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH A
AVIATION...JV







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 944 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. RAISED CHANCES IN BURKE AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES WHERE
SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING...AND LOWERED CHANCES FARTHER
WEST OVER DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES WHERE THE SHOWERS HAD MOVED
EAST. MAIN EFFORTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN TO TRY AND VERIFY RADAR
ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL FROM THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. CURRENT
REPORTS WERE OF 2-5 INCHES IN DIVIDE COUNTY...WITH A 3.5 INCH REPORT
FROM BURG TOWNSHIP. STILL AWAITING WORD FROM PLACES IN NORTHERN
WILLIAMS COUNTY...AND WILL BE UPDATING THE AREAL (OVERLAND) FLOOD
WARNING IN PLACE IN WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
UNTIL 230 PM CDT. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST POPS LOWER OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL. CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WEST LAST NIGHT HAS
MADE IT EAST ALMOST OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. THERE
IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR FUTURE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THEN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS THE WEST.

PORTIONS OF WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ROOTED OVER THE NORTHWEST ALONG
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS THE SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH FORECAST PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT
FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY. WITHIN THE PAST 7 DAYS A LARGE SWATH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVED 6 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
SUNDAY COULD PROVE TO BE TOO MUCH FOR THE SATURATED GROUND TO
HANDLE AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND RAP AND PRODUCE
GREATER AMOUNTS OF QPF. FOR THIS FORECAST UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS THE 00 UTC NAM INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY AND DID
NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...EXPECT FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS IN RESPONSE TO ONE OF MULTIPLE
WAVES WORKING THROUGH A BROAD MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING A RISK OF SHOWERS AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE CENTRAL AND EAST REMAIN DRY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM REINFORCING UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE BEST
THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY DRY REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTH DAKOTA
IN BETWEEN MORE ACTIVE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MODELS DIVERGE
A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLIP OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...WHILE GFS IS DRIER. BUT IN GENERAL WE REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG FROM DICKINSON THROUGH BISMARCK TO
JAMESTOWN THIS MORNING. EXPECT CE LINGS AND FOG TO LIFT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE 12Z PERIOD...BUT SHOULD CLEAR
OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR NDZ018>020-031>034-040>045.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH A
AVIATION...TWH






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 701 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST POPS LOWER OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL. CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WEST LAST NIGHT HAS
MADE IT EAST ALMOST OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. THERE
IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR FUTURE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THEN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS THE WEST.

PORTIONS OF WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ROOTED OVER THE NORTHWEST ALONG
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS THE SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH FORECAST PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT
FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY. WITHIN THE PAST 7 DAYS A LARGE SWATH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVED 6 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
SUNDAY COULD PROVE TO BE TOO MUCH FOR THE SATURATED GROUND TO
HANDLE AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND RAP AND PRODUCE
GREATER AMOUNTS OF QPF. FOR THIS FORECAST UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS THE 00 UTC NAM INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY AND DID
NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...EXPECT FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS IN RESPONSE TO ONE OF MULTIPLE
WAVES WORKING THROUGH A BROAD MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING A RISK OF SHOWERS AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE CENTRAL AND EAST REMAIN DRY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM REINFORCING UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE BEST
THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY DRY REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTH DAKOTA
IN BETWEEN MORE ACTIVE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MODELS DIVERGE
A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLIP OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...WHILE GFS IS DRIER. BUT IN GENERAL WE REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG FROM DICKINSON THROUGH BISMARCK TO
JAMESTOWN THIS MORNING. EXPECT CE LINGS AND FOG TO LIFT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE 12Z PERIOD...BUT SHOULD CLEAR
OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR NDZ018>020-031>034-040>045.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS THE WEST.

PORTIONS OF WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ROOTED OVER THE NORTHWEST ALONG
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS THE SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH FORECAST PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT
FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY. WITHIN THE PAST 7 DAYS A LARGE SWATH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVED 6 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
SUNDAY COULD PROVE TO BE TOO MUCH FOR THE SATURATED GROUND TO
HANDLE AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND RAP AND PRODUCE
GREATER AMOUNTS OF QPF. FOR THIS FORECAST UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS THE 00 UTC NAM INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY AND DID
NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...EXPECT FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS IN RESPONSE TO ONE OF MULTIPLE
WAVES WORKING THROUGH A BROAD MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING A RISK OF SHOWERS AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE CENTRAL AND EAST REMAIN DRY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM REINFORCING UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE BEST
THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY DRY REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTH DAKOTA
IN BETWEEN MORE ACTIVE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MODELS DIVERGE
A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLIP OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...WHILE GFS IS DRIER. BUT IN GENERAL WE REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KISN AND KDIK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO KBIS AND KMOT FROM 08-09 UTC.
AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER WILL APPROACH KJMS AFTER 12 UTC. LOW
PRESSURE OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY
KEEPING A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER KISN...KDIK...KMOT AND KBIS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND MOVING INTO KJMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING...DECREASING IN KISN AND KDIK
DURING THE EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT STILL DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
OVERALL QPF PLACEMENT. NO MODEL IS DOING GREAT WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...BUT COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE
IS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY TO
AROUND DVL...AND WILL ADD THROUGH 13Z AND MONITOR ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORY POTENTIAL.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT AROUND 21-00Z MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE AMPLE PWATS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND SOME INSTABILITY...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MON...THERE SHOULD BE A DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF NE SD AND DEVELOPING INTO OUR REGION
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IMPINGING ON SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FOR AREAS IN MN FROM
WILKIN COUNTY TO HUBBARD COUNTY...AND WE WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MON FOR WATER LOGGED AREAS IN MN...WITH
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. ELSEWHERE...THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH MON...AS THE UPPER WAVE AND LOW LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT MORE WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER THROUGH MUCH
OF MON MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

FOR MON NIGHT...IT SHOULD DRY OUT SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY 12Z
TUE.  FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT...PERHAPS THE ONLY DRY DAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND EASTERLY WINDS KEEP THE REGION DRY. THIS WILL CHANGE
FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER TROUGH (CLOSED LOW
ON ECMWF) SETS UP OVER MONTANA AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SLOWLY
TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER BRINGING
PRECIP INTO EASTERN ND WED NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY UNTIL
THU AFTN. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION THU AND FRI AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE OUT OF MB BACK INTO SASK. GFS DOES BRING A SFC HIGH
OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND APPEARS DRY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS
PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST AND CONSALL THEREFORE STILL PRODUCING SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS. NEXT WAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ON
SAT THROUGH SUN MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG BEFORE SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
SINCE CURRENT CONDITIONS INDICATE LOWER CIGS ARE ISOLATED. AS PER
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE...THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD AND IF
THEY WOULD AFFECT ANY TAF SITE. WENT WITH A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST
USING PAST EXPERIENCES...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ003-023-024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. IN
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIFTING
NORTHEAST WITH SOME TRAINING FROM WILLIAMS INTO DIVIDE COUNTY.
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST AND HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY WINDS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. UPDATE MAINLY DEALT WITH RE-ALIGNING HIGHEST POPS WITH
CURRENT RADAR AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

THE OVERALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PER THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC. WHILE STORMS MAY BE SUSTAINED
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET...300-400 J/KG OF HAIL CAPE...700-800 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE
WITH 20-25 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY SUPPORT A LOW
END HAIL AND WIND THREAT...DECREASING THE FURTHER EAST THE STORMS
PROPAGATE. HOWEVER...OBSERVED SLOW STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR...NAMELY THE 20 AND INCOMING 21
UTC RUNS...HAVE AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING BROKEN LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THUS...WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR POPS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER BETWEEN 02-04 UTC...SUSTAINED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THE CONVECTION MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AS IT CROSSES
THE BORDER. THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST A CONGEALING LINE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT...FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE STORMS
BEGIN TO PROPAGATE INTO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 06-07 UTC...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT
WITH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS. ACROSS
THE EAST MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT THINKING OF LOW/NIL THUNDERSTORM
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE WITH SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE MODEST. A
MORE POTENT SYSTEM IS FORMING IN MONTANA WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MESOSCALE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
BRING A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT AS A QLCS IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 04-06Z. WILL HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING WINDS
LATER TONIGHT WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST SUNDAY WITH A MORE LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
STATE...EXITING THE DEVILS LAKE AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER (HAIL/TORNADOES) IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. KEPT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MENTION OF SHOWERS DURING THIS
TIME...AND EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 1.00 INCH
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE REGIME WITH
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND KEEPING
NORTH DAKOTA UNDER A MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THUS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID-WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...LOOKING AT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS MAINLY 45 TO 55.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KISN AND KDIK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO KBIS AND KMOT FROM 08-09 UTC.
AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER WILL APPROACH KJMS AFTER 12 UTC. LOW
PRESSURE OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY
KEEPING A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER KISN...KDIK...KMOT AND KBIS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND MOVING INTO KJMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING...DECREASING IN KISN AND KDIK
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA/JV
AVIATION...TWH






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOW MOSTLY EAST OF
THE FA. 850MB-700MB BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS THE UPPER WAVE (AND
ASSOCIATED 700MB LOW) PROPAGATES THROUGH. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE POPPING
UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT...AND ANTICIPATE
THESE TYPE OF ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BOUNDARY ZONE
UNTIL THE UPPER WAVES PASSES TO THE EAST.

NEW MODEL GUIDANCE COMING IN SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THE PAST
DAY...FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE INCREASING. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO CONSIDER WITH FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

SFC LOW AT MID AFTERNOON LOCATED JUST NORTH OF HURON SD. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN TONIGHT JUST NORTH OF ST
CLOUD. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND WHERE. VSBL SAT PIX AND SPC SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
HIGHEST PWATS (1.6 IN) IN THAT DULUTH-ST CLOUD- WATERTOWN-PIERRE
SD REGION. SOME HEATING HAS OCCURRED IN CNTRL-SRN MN AS WELL. THUS
AS SFC LOW AND ASSOC 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVE EAST- NORTHEAST WOULD
EXPECT EXPANSION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BEST BET FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD APPEAR TO BE NR OR JUST SOUTH OF STORM TRACK INTO
BEST PWAT/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST HPC QPF HAS AREA OF 1+ INCH IN
6 HRS AREAS FROM BROOKINGS-WATERTOWN SD TO JUST SOUTH OF
ALEXANDRIAN TO LONG PRAIRIE THEN OVERNIGHT MOVING IT TO DULUTH.
THIS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THE WORST FELL
YESTERDAY IN OUR FCST AREA. EXCEPTION IS GRANT COUNTY WHERE 1.35
TO 1.85 INCHS OF RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT. BUT VERY LITTLE HAS FALLEN
TODAY PROPER. NO WATCHES ISSUED AS FEEL BEST BET OF HEAVY RAIN A
TAD SOUTH OF GRANT CO MN... AND PLUS AREAS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
ST CLOUD AND SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA RECEIVED 2 TO 5 INCHES
EARLIER TODAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE.

OTHERWISE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM BAUDETTE TO WEST OF FARGO IS
STARTING TO DIMINISH. BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER
FORMING NR BEMIDJI. SO OVERALL IDEA OF NO RAIN ROX-GFK-COOPERSTOWN
WEST IS GOOD TONIGHT AND HIGHER POPS EAST OF THIS.

LOW AND UPPER WAVE DEPART LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY DRY DAY IN MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS FAR EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY....MAINLY FOR
COORDINATION. ALSO SUNDAY AFTN RAIN CHANCES WILL STAR TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WITH NAM WAY TOO FAST AND
ECMWF MUCH SLOWER. THUS BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF POPS FROM PREV
FCST. UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER AREA WITH ACCOMPANIED SFC
LOW INTO MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOL
THUNDER INTO THE REGION. ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST...BUT KEPT IDEA OF
LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST HALF SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL BE OVER ERN ND MONDAY WITH SFC LOW CLOSER
TO DULUTH. EXPECT A PRETTY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MORE STRATIFORM VS CONVECTIVE. HOWEVER UP TO 1 INCH MAY
FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER
AIR AND CLEARING WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A
BIT OF A BREAK FOR OUR CWA AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SD
AND MISSES US TO OUR SOUTH. SFC LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE NEXT TROUGH DOES NOT START TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MONTANA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE QUIET PATTERN WILL BE VERY
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIGS FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK. STILL A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE
DETAILS...BUT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGING PRECIP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW BUT LOWS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN USUAL WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO KEEP US FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG BEFORE SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
SINCE CURRENT CONDITIONS INDICATE LOWER CIGS ARE ISOLATED. AS PER
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE...THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD AND IF
THEY WOULD AFFECT ANY TAF SITE. WENT WITH A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST
USING PAST EXPERIENCES...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/JR
AVIATION...TG






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 323 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...
STALLING IN OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
PSEUDO WARM FRONT IN NE KY THIS AFTERNOON IN DEW POINT GRADIENT ON
WEST SIDE OF MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS.  STILL LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HTS TRI STATE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT FCST RAP SOUNDINGS STILL A BIT TOO
DRY...NEED TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST.

HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AT 925 MB ON 12Z NAM GOES NORTH INTO OHIO THEN
BRUSHES NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM ALSO DEPICTING AN 850
MB TROF AXIS PASSING THRU WITH WINDS VEERS FROM SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY.  YET...CAN NOT JUMP
ON THE 70 TO 80 POPS TONIGHT FOR PLACES LIKE HTS AND CRW.
CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL IN OUR CHANCE RANGE IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY.  SOME WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXS
DEPICTED ON NAM AND GFS RIDING NE THROUGH OHIO ON MONDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES ON MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP OUR FORECAST DEW POINTS AOA GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT AND WHEN EVAPORATING DEW ETC 12Z TO 14Z MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAY STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION TO START EARLY ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO TRIED TO
SHOW A PERIOD OF LOWER POPS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. BEST LINE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH VORT MAX/RIPPLE AT 500MB. THE FRONT
CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY JUST CLEAR TO THE CWA TO THE
SOUTH...BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.5 THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SO DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER FLOW SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS
MOVING...SO TRAINING WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN THERE. DECENT
SHEAR ALSO IN PLACE...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL...WITH WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE IN HWO AT THIS POINT.

BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN FAIRLY MINIMAL CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE OSSCIALTING SURFACE
BOUNDARY STALLED IN THE VICINITY AND SEVERAL WAVES...BOTH SURFACE
AND ALOFT...CROSSING THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS ON WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE...SO STAYED
PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE BOUNDARY FINALLY HEADING TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...SO STRAYED FROM WPC THERE GOING WITH A LOWER POP
FORECAST. THEN HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SURFACE WAVE AND 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS. GFS SHOWING DECENT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...AND ALSO PWATS ABOVE 1.5 FOR THURSDAY...SO
WILL MENTION STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
TODAY.  ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM FORMING HTS ON
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

LAYERS CLOUDS AT MOSTLY 4 TO 8 THSD FT AGL OVERNIGHT...WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES.  SOME MVFR IN FOG MAY FORM IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OF WV 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY INCLUDING ELKINS.

AGAIN ON MONDAY...MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS...BUT A BIG
LOWER IN HIGHER DEW POINT AIR...MOSTLY 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL.
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY IN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES INCLUDING SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 155 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES.  COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...STALLING
IN OHIO VALLEY.  LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
PSEUDO WARM FRONT IN NE KY THIS AFTERNOON IN DEW POINT GRADIENT ON
WEST SIDE OF MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS.  STILL LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HTS TRI STATE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT FCST RAP SOUNDINGS STILL A BIT TOO
DRY...NEED TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST.

HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AT 925 MB ON 12Z NAM GOES NORTH INTO OHIO THEN
BRUSHES NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM ALSO DEPICTING AN 850
MB TROF AXIS PASSING THRU WITH WINDS VEERS FROM SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY.  YET...CAN NOT JUMP
ON THE 70 TO 80 POPS TONIGHT FOR PLACES LIKE HTS AND CRW.
CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL IN OUR CHANCE RANGE IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY.  SOME WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXS
DEPICTED ON NAM AND GFS RIDING NE THROUGH OHIO ON MONDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES ON MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP OUR FORECAST DEW POINTS AOA GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT AND WHEN EVAPORATING DEW ETC 12Z TO 14Z MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS ESTABLISH A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER UNSETTLED WEEK OVERALL...WITH
AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER.  MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.

ON MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE BRINGS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.  DESPITE THIS...BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT TOO
BULLISH ON INSTABILITY AND THERE IS ALSO AN OVERALL LACK OF A
TRIGGER MECHANISM TO GET CONVECTION GOING.  KEPT IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
IN SOUTHEAST OHIO DUE TO PRESENCE OF WEAK VORT MAX...BUT BACKED OFF
A BIT ON POPS OVERALL GIVEN THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECTING A TYPICAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN ANY ACTIVITY MONDAY
EVENING.  SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.
REGARDLESS...LIKELY POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE ALONG/WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER BY 12Z...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

LIKELY POPS THEN SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AS HIGHER THETA-E
AIR ARRIVES ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED
GIVEN THE FRONT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...OR STRONG FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT.  NO LARGE-SCALE WATER THREAT IS INDICATED EITHER...ALTHOUGH
LOCAL PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW. COVERAGE
WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.  SPC
HIGHLIGHTED THE NORTHERN CWA FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT.  ECMWF DOES
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS LINE OF THINKING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY HWO SEVERE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS VALUES USED FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME
TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW AS WEAK 5H RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THUS..AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DOES NOT
STRAY FAR FROM OUR AREA AS IT TAKES ON AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION.

SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG FRONT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WITH THE COMBINATION DECENT DIURNAL
HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES HANDLING THESE FEATURES...SO STAYED WITH HPC GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NOTED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
TODAY.  ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM FORMING HTS ON
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

LAYERS CLOUDS AT MOSTLY 4 TO 8 THSD FT AGL OVERNIGHT...WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES.  SOME MVFR IN FOG MAY FORM IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OF WV 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY INCLUDING ELKINS.

AGAIN ON MONDAY...MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS...BUT A BIG
LOWER IN HIGHER DEW POINT AIR...MOSTLY 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL.
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY IN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES INCLUDING SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS EXITED TO OUR EAST. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES
THROUGH MONDAY.  COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...STALLING IN OHIO
VALLEY.  LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BONE DRY AIR DOES NOT STICK AROUND LONG...NOW THAT WE ARE
ENTERING JUNE.  DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY INCREASING COMPARED TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY.

WEAK FLOW 700 MBS AND ALOFT...BUT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AT 925 MBS THIS
SUNDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT CAUSING SOME CEILINGS IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SW WV INCLUDING HTS-CRW CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
FIGURING THAT MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT INTO MOSTLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 18Z...WHILE SCT CU FORMS ELSEWHERE IN DAYTIME HEATING.  STILL
LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HTS TRI STATE VCNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. BUT FCST RAP SOUNDINGS
STILL A BIT TOO DRY...NEED TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST.

RAISED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE I-79 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON. AND RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO A FEW DEGREES FIGURING ON MORE CLOUDS AND A WIND
STIRRING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS ESTABLISH A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER UNSETTLED WEEK OVERALL...WITH
AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER.  MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.

ON MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE BRINGS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.  DESPITE THIS...BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT TOO
BULLISH ON INSTABILITY AND THERE IS ALSO AN OVERALL LACK OF A
TRIGGER MECHANISM TO GET CONVECTION GOING.  KEPT IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
IN SOUTHEAST OHIO DUE TO PRESENCE OF WEAK VORT MAX...BUT BACKED OFF
A BIT ON POPS OVERALL GIVEN THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECTING A TYPICAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN ANY ACTIVITY MONDAY
EVENING.  SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.
REGARDLESS...LIKELY POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE ALONG/WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER BY 12Z...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

LIKELY POPS THEN SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AS HIGHER THETA-E
AIR ARRIVES ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED
GIVEN THE FRONT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...OR STRONG FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT.  NO LARGE-SCALE WATER THREAT IS INDICATED EITHER...ALTHOUGH
LOCAL PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW. COVERAGE
WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.  SPC
HIGHLIGHTED THE NORTHERN CWA FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT.  ECMWF DOES
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS LINE OF THINKING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY HWO SEVERE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS VALUES USED FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME
TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW AS WEAK 5H RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THUS..AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DOES NOT
STRAY FAR FROM OUR AREA AS IT TAKES ON AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION.

SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG FRONT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WITH THE COMBINATION DECENT DIURNAL
HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES HANDLING THESE FEATURES...SO STAYED WITH HPC GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NOTED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
TODAY.  ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM FORMING HTS ON
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

LAYERS CLOUDS AT MOSTLY 4 TO 8 THSD FT AGL OVERNIGHT...WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES.  SOME MVFR IN FOG MAY FORM IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OF WV 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/CL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...ARJ










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

 333 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS ADVANCING
ACROSS KS AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE AND
THEN SLIDE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN OK. THE
LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAVE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT IDEAS AS TO
HOW THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE UKMET KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE BORDER.
BASED ON SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THE DATA...WILL ELECT TO
MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS INSTEAD OF LIKELY POPS. NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED
BY WEAKER INSTABILITY OWING TO THE TIME OF DAY.

MID LEVEL TEMPS AND HEIGHTS RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS
SPREADS UP INTO OUR AREA. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...THE WEATHER
LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED WITH MCS ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  91  72  92 /  40  30  10  10
FSM   71  88  70  91 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   71  88  71  89 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   70  89  70  92 /  50  30  10  10
FYV   66  84  67  86 /  20  30  10  10
BYV   68  84  67  87 /  20  30  20  10
MKO   70  88  70  90 /  20  30  10  10
MIO   69  87  70  89 /  40  40  10  10
F10   71  89  71  90 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   71  87  70  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 237 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS...SUPERCELLS DUE TO STRONG
0-6 KM SHEAR 40 TO 55 KT...WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND PERHAPS INTO THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.
COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOW AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AS THE CAP MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PANHANDLES WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST...AROUND +14C.
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN KANSAS. THESE STORMS
COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 7 PM. VERY LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS...THOUGH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LOW DUE TO HIGH CLOUD BASES. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGESTED THIS
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR.

LATER THIS EVENING...MORE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS/HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HINT THAT A LARGE MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER KANSAS...POSSIBLY
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS STATE LINES. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS COMPLEX WILL GO AS
CAPPING IS STRONGER OVER OKLAHOMA COMPARED TO KANSAS. THIS COMPLEX
MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 8 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WOULD HELP TO KEEP THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZED...POSSIBLY
INTO A BOWING SQUALL LINE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY TRY TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. EXPANDED
RAIN CHANCES A BIT SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

ON MONDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER EAST OF A ALVA TO OKLAHOMA
CITY TO ADA LINE MAINLY IN THE MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND
CAP STRENGTHENS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG. OTHERWISE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE CENTURY MARK MAY BE REACHED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA
AND A WEAK BOUNDARY AND WEAKER CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF STORMS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  90  71  93 /  30  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  93  71  95 /  20  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  95  73  96 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           67  92  68  98 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  87  71  92 /  70  30  20  10
DURANT OK         72  87  72  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 150 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR...WHILE CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE UPSTATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN RESPONSE TO E/SE UPSLOPE FLOW. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT...TO A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

1015 PM UPDATE...TSTMS LINING UP ALONG A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES
EXTENDING WWD FROM THE SMOKIES AND ELBERT CO GA. OF COURSE...THIS
CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS MINIMAL COVERAGE WITHIN OUR FA. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO REALLY SAY WITH CONFIDENCE WHAT IS FOCUSING THE CONVECTION. THE
SRN BAND DOES APPEAR TO BE ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE...PROBABLY ASSOC
WITH THE FRONT. MEAN ELY FLOW IS CARRYING THE CELLS AWAY FROM OUR
FA...AND MOST OF OUR TERRITORY NOW LIES IN THE COOL/DRY SECTOR. I
ADJUSTED POPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS REALLY TO JUST HOLD THE
COVERAGE STEADY IN THESE AREAS AND GRADUALLY START TO FOCUS POPS
ALONG THE SE FACING BLUE RIDGE. OVERALL THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
OVERNIGHT LOOKS VERY LOW NORTH OF THE TRUE FRONT. UNDER PERSISTENT
E-SE LLVL WINDS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND BLUE RIDGE...THE MESO MODELS
/NOTABLY THE LAST FEW HRRR CYCLES/ SHOW WEAK CELLS CONTINUING TO
FIRE OVERNIGHT IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SAID...PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE WITH A WARM LAYER ACTING AS A CAP AND POOR LAPSE RATES
OVERALL. ENOUGH OF A SATURATED LAYER WILL DEVELOP THAT SOME
NON-CONVECTIVE SPRINKLES COULD RESULT. AN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT MENTION
IS JUSTIFIED ALONG THE SRN ESCARPMENT. I ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS A TAD
WARMER OVERNIGHT PER SHORT TERM MODEL BLEND...GIVEN WARMER DEWPOINTS
AT THIS HR THAN ANTICIPATED BY THE PREV FCST TEMPS.

THRU SUNDAY...THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD CLOSES OFF AN ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH SUNDAY THAT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION EVEN FURTHER. WILL NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THERE WILL STILL BE A WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY COOLER IN
SPITE OF MORE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WAS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SHIFT EAST...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
THEN SETTLES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT
SHOULD BE ON OUR FAR WESTERN FLANK IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY OR
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION...NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...SHOULD WANE VERY QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND LITTLE FORCING NOTED OTHERWISE.

A TEMPORARY STAGNANT PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS BOTH UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE FEATURES SHIFT SLIGHTLY SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO OUR COUNTIES ALONG THE NC/TN STATE LINE...
WHERE SOME PRIMARILY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WE HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THAT AREA AS FOCUSED AS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND WHERE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS NOTED. ELSEWHERE
WE WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST MONDAY...AND HAVE BEEN A OPTIMISTIC
WITH SKY COVER...ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUDS MAY BE NOTED NEAR THE
OLD BOUNDARY PROBABLY LINGERING IN NE GEORGIA.

ONCE AGAIN A QUICK END TO ISOLATED HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE AN OVERNIGHT UPTICK IN A
MOISTENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST FACING MOUNTAIN TERRAIN.
THIS IS PROBABLY THE START OF A FEW LATE NIGHT/WEE HOUR SHOWERS...IN
A WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFTING PATTERN...AGAIN LOCATED TOWARD THE NC/TN
BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE FA HOLDS TO
A DRY PATTERN.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING HEIGHT FALLS REACHING PARTS OF OUR
FA TUESDAY...COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING WIND SHIFT LINE AND A VORT
LOBE PIVOTING THROUGH THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAKE A JUMP
BACK TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES...AS RICH MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NEWD.
WE HAVE STARTED POPS QUICKLY IN WESTERN NC/NE GA TUESDAY MORNING...
AND MOVED THEM INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...
AS FORCING WORKS ON THE INCREASINGLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. INSTABILITY
VARIES CONSIDERABLY LOOKING AT PLAN VIEW MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT
INFORMATION...BUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CARRY THUNDER.

WE USED A MODEL BLEND OF TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
WHICH FITS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND LATEST SET OF MOS
GUIDE INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE USA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY A
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND OVER THE
SE USA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE A FRONT REMAINS IN THE POTOMAC AND
OH RIVER VALLEYS. LITTLE CHANGE IS SEEN FOR OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHILE A A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO VA...AND
SLOW MOVING WARM WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. BY
SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST USA...
WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OH AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEY.

OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WARM...HUMID AIR MASS. AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY EACH DAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR MID SUMMER NORMAL...WHICH
IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR HAS INFILTRATED THE PIEDMONT. WINDS
WILL THEREFORE BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND THESE WILL BE RELATIVELY
TRICKY...AS A PERSISTENT CROSS-RUNWAY COMPONENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT DIRECTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE A
LITTLE NORTH OF DUE EAST UNTIL LATE MORNING...WHEN THEY SHOULD
BECOME E/SE...POSSIBLY TAKING ON A TRUER SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MOIST E/SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MOST TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR BY
09Z AT THE LATEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KHKY...WHERE THE MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SHALLOW. HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF THE CLEAR
SKIES AND SMALL TEMP/DEWP SPREADS...SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KHKY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL VFR CIGS EXPAND OVER THE
TERMINAL LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY THINK THAT THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PREVENT CIGS FROM DROPPING
BELOW MVFR LEVELS...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT KAVL...WHERE A TEMPO HAS BEEN
ADDED FOR IFR PRIOR TO 12Z. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH MVFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY NOON-ISH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE (ESP KAVL)...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK...RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BACK TO THE REGION BY TUE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-WEEK. MORNING VISBY AND/OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     MED   78%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  90%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  86%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 801 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

.UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
MIDDLE TN IS IN RESPONSE TO A EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE BAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER INITIALLY AS IT REACHES
WESTERN AREAS OF MIDDLE TN A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING. FURTHER
EAST...IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 12Z. SO FOR THE
FORECAST...SEE NO REASON TO ADJUST THE WEATHER GRIDS. SKY
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL
LOOK OK WITH MINS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF BOTH TN AND KY. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CONVECTION MAY REACH THE CKV AREA
LATER THIS EVENING. OTW...LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH SOME LOWER VSBYS TOWARD 12Z. AIRMASS LOOKS
A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK SO FAR. CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST HAS ALSO KEPT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING FROM WEST TN/WEST
KY...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO
AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW POPS SPREADING EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY RESULTING
IN LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE...BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO RETURN WELL INTO THE 80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
MID STATE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEGLIGIBLE AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S PLATEAU AND
LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY AS A 60 KT 500 MB JET PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ALL SUGGEST THIS WILL DRIVE AN MCS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE KY BORDER
NORTHWARD...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN OUR AREA
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MID STATE IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES BOTH
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 633 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF BOTH TN AND KY. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CONVECTION MAY REACH THE CKV AREA
LATER THIS EVENING. OTW...LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH SOME LOWER VSBYS TOWARD 12Z. AIRMASS LOOKS
A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK SO FAR. CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST HAS ALSO KEPT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING FROM WEST TN/WEST
KY...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO
AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW POPS SPREADING EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY RESULTING
IN LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE...BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO RETURN WELL INTO THE 80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
MID STATE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEGLIGIBLE AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S PLATEAU AND
LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY AS A 60 KT 500 MB JET PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ALL SUGGEST THIS WILL DRIVE AN MCS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE KY BORDER
NORTHWARD...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN OUR AREA
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MID STATE IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES BOTH
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA  CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. WILL MENTION VCTS
AT CKV/BNA AND VCSH AT CSV. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10-20 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MVFR
CIG/VIS POSSIBLE DUE TO CONVECTION. NO VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LLJ WILL BE BRISK AT 30-35 KTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/

UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM
YESTERDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S PLATEAU WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...BUT 12Z HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION
BLOSSOMING BY 17Z WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY
HAS ALL OF THIS COVERED AND LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR
EAST, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHICH IS
KEEPING A WARM, UNSTABLE AIR MASS LOCKED IN OVER THE MID STATE.
LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY, WHICH WILL ENHANCE
OUR CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD, WHICH SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING.  SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE
LITTLE STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THESE WILL JUST BE PAVEMENT
WETTERS.  OVERALL PATTERN AND FORECAST WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  RICH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH AFTERNOON...WITH NO WIND SHEAR TO SPEAK
OF MEANS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG AT TIMES DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

TRYING TO FIND A PERIOD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHERE THINGS
MIGHT CHANGE A BIT IN THE PRECIPITATION REALM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
WEDNESDAY MIGHT BE THAT DAY.  STARTING MONDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BY TUESDAY...MOVE NE INTO CANADA.
THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY`S PRECIP HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAY HELP TO PUSH RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF THE MID-STATE GIVING US A RESPITE IN THE RAIN
CATEGORY.  THE DOWNSIDE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY PUSH INTO THE
REGION IN ITS PLACE AND HELP TO WARM US UP BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  THESE TWO DAYS MAY BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES SHOWING LOW 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.  FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ONTO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
FORECAST...WITH A ONLY A FEW READINGS INTO THOSE LOW 90S WEST OF THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA.

OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TURNS ZONAL AND A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS
MOVE WEST TO EAST...NORTH OF THE STATE.  THE RESULT COULD BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON.
STILL NOT CRAZY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR...BUT WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MORE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED
WIND THREAT EACH DAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVENTUAL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.  THE EURO WANTS A SHORTWAVE TO PUSH RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF
TN SATURDAY...WITH MORE RAIN MOVING IN SUNDAY...AND THE GFS WANTS TO
KEEP RAIN AROUND BOTH DAYS.  WILL JUST TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR
NOW...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

UNGER

,AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING SITUATED JUST EAST WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...WHILE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF. DEEPER MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
OVER THE MID-STATE LATER ON SUNDAY AND WHILE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ANYTIME...SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOOKS MOST
LIKELY FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...OVERNIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP CKV BUT IS VERY LIKELY CSV WHERE IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 930 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM
YESTERDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S PLATEAU WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...BUT 12Z HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION
BLOSSOMING BY 17Z WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY
HAS ALL OF THIS COVERED AND LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR
EAST, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHICH IS
KEEPING A WARM, UNSTABLE AIR MASS LOCKED IN OVER THE MID STATE.
LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY, WHICH WILL ENHANCE
OUR CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD, WHICH SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING.  SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE
LITTLE STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THESE WILL JUST BE PAVEMENT
WETTERS.  OVERALL PATTERN AND FORECAST WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  RICH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH AFTERNOON...WITH NO WIND SHEAR TO SPEAK
OF MEANS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG AT TIMES DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

TRYING TO FIND A PERIOD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHERE THINGS
MIGHT CHANGE A BIT IN THE PRECIPITATION REALM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
WEDNESDAY MIGHT BE THAT DAY.  STARTING MONDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BY TUESDAY...MOVE NE INTO CANADA.
THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY`S PRECIP HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAY HELP TO PUSH RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF THE MID-STATE GIVING US A RESPITE IN THE RAIN
CATEGORY.  THE DOWNSIDE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY PUSH INTO THE
REGION IN ITS PLACE AND HELP TO WARM US UP BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  THESE TWO DAYS MAY BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES SHOWING LOW 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.  FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ONTO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
FORECAST...WITH A ONLY A FEW READINGS INTO THOSE LOW 90S WEST OF THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA.

OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TURNS ZONAL AND A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS
MOVE WEST TO EAST...NORTH OF THE STATE.  THE RESULT COULD BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON.
STILL NOT CRAZY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR...BUT WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MORE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED
WIND THREAT EACH DAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVENTUAL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.  THE EURO WANTS A SHORTWAVE TO PUSH RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF
TN SATURDAY...WITH MORE RAIN MOVING IN SUNDAY...AND THE GFS WANTS TO
KEEP RAIN AROUND BOTH DAYS.  WILL JUST TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR
NOW...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

UNGER

,AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING SITUATED JUST EAST WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...WHILE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF. DEEPER MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
OVER THE MID-STATE LATER ON SUNDAY AND WHILE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ANYTIME...SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOOKS MOST
LIKELY FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...OVERNIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP CKV BUT IS VERY LIKELY CSV WHERE IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 320 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TO
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS BANKED CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.  AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGING WILL
KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHORT LIVED...IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL. THE
NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE WITH CONVECTION FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF RUNS. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW ALSO GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. WILL KEPT SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FOR THIS EVENING WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO BUILD SOUTH FROM
LOWER NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE SEABOARD TO BECOME CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

HELD ON TO RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SHAPED GRIDS TOWARDS THE
NAM. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO ADJMETBC WITH READINGS
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT. ADD THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ON
MONDAY...ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GOING TO SEE 5H HEIGHTS FLATTEN THIS PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FROM SRN ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES SWD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
WILL BE WATCHING CONVECTION AND UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST OF
WHICH CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
TUESDAY WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS. ATTM...APPEARS THE BLUE RIDGE
WEST WILL SEE HIGHER THREAT. PARAMETERS SUGGEST THUNDER BUT SVR
POTENTIAL IS LOW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SVR THREAT.
CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION COULD LIMIT
HEATING. STILL HUMID AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS FROM THE AROUND 80
WEST TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

MODELS FADE PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS. ANOTHER
ARRIVES TOWARD WED MORNING IN THE FAR WEST...WITH MAIN EMPHASIS OF
COVERAGE MOVING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND CONVECTION IS PROGGED BY THE 12Z ECMWF TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON....BUT KEEPS BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHANYS AND BLUE RIDGE. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40 RANGE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE EAST. SHOULD BE WARMER IF NO DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SPILLS
OVER...MAINLY IN THE EAST. GOING WITH LOWER 80S WEST TO AROUND 90
SOUTHEAST.

MODELS ARE ADVERTISING MCS SHIFTING TOWARD THE WV/VA/NC MTNS BY 12Z
THURSDAY AND KEEPING POPS ON THE 30-50 RANGE LATE WED NIGHT THERE
WITH LESS THAN 15 MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT FASTER ONSET. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS
LOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY..

ELONGATED W-E FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THU-FRI...FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF US BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS HIGH
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SPEEDING TIMING OF FROPA
TO FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOW IT DOWN SOME GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL VICINITY OF FRONT AND UPPER FLOW FROM THE WEST
FAVORS WARM CONDITIONS. THE FRONT BUCKLES BACK TOWARD US BY THE END
OF DAY 7/SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE MID
WEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TURNING THE FLOW WSW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ISOLATED POCKET OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH MON...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOW CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES
TO CLIMB TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

VSBYS THROUGH 06Z WILL ALL BE VFR...BUT MVFR BR POSSIBLE LWB/BCB
EARLY MON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. SOME MVFR
FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT LWB. ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BUT TOO
LIMITED IN COVERAGE FOR MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE.


WINDS MOSTLY ESE-SE AT SPEEDS OF 5-9KTS...WITH ISOLATED GUST TO 20
KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT SPEED OF 5 TO 10 KTS IN GENERAL.

HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSRA RETURNING TO AREAS WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPINGE
ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE TUE AND AGAIN
THU. PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS IN MORNING BR AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBLF OBSERVATION WILL NOT BE TRANSMITTED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
DUE TO AN ONGOING FAA COMMUNICATIONS ISSUE. HOWEVER...WE ARE
ABLE TO DIAL INTO THE SITE TO OBTAIN INFORMATION NEEDED TO
CONTINUE THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS LOCATION. HOWEVER...UNTIL
THE COMMUNICATION ISSUE IS RESOLVED...AN AMD NOT SKED WILL BE
APPENDED TO THE END OF EACH KBLF TERMINAL FORECAST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...CF/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...WP




YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

 








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1014 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

SAT IMAGERY AND WEB CAMS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
INDICATE THE DENSE FOG HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST WITH THE
INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW. WILL END THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AND LET THE SCA CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.  THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS
EXITED THE DOOR PENINSULA...BUT SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. DESPITE A LACK OF DESTABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM
WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SINCE TEMPS HAVE
NOT RECOVERED MUCH FROM THE EARLIER RAINS.  LOOKING EVEN FURTHER
UPSTREAM...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND SHOWERS IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA.  THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TIP OF JAMES BAY.  RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...WILL END SHOWER CHANCES OVER NE WISCONSIN
AT THIS TIME.  BUT FARTHER WEST...THINK SCT TO WIDELY SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE IN THE EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  THEN MAY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BEFORE
WRAP AROUND LOW STRATUS FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA DROPS INTO N-C
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE WITH THE
STRATUS AS WELL.  THE EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN MUGGY...THEN SHOULD
SEE COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVE WITH THE STRATUS.  LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE THE LOW STRATUS SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME HELP FROM DAYTIME HEATING.  SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
MORNING UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEN
SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
RETREATS.  COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

SEVERAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND SREF...APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
AND BRING PCPN TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE MORE CLOSELY
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH SHOW LESS FEEDBACK...AND FOCUS
THE MCS ACTIVITY OVER IA/N IL...NORTH OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT CHC POPS GOING FOR C/EC WI
LATE TUES NGT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STABILITY INDICES INDICATE
LITTLE THREAT FOR THUNDER.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST GOING FROM WEDS NGT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST IS NOT AS HIGH AS
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE ECMWF GENERATES SOME LIGHT PCPN IN
ASSOCIATION A S/W TROF MOVG THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND ALSO DEVELOPS SOME SCT CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WI ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER THIS EVENING
OVERALL HAVE ENDED OR MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST. BUT SOME RETURNS OR
SHOWERS WITH WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WERE MOVING BACK INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
BACK OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS
BUT DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA WILL PRODUCE VFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

DENSE FOG HAS SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL SUPPORT SCA OR NEAR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
MARINE.........TDH






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 656 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

SAT IMAGERY AND WEB CAMS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
INDICATE THE DENSE FOG HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST WITH THE
INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW. WILL END THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AND LET THE SCA CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.  THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS
EXITED THE DOOR PENINSULA...BUT SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. DESPITE A LACK OF DESTABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM
WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SINCE TEMPS HAVE
NOT RECOVERED MUCH FROM THE EARLIER RAINS.  LOOKING EVEN FURTHER
UPSTREAM...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND SHOWERS IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA.  THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TIP OF JAMES BAY.  RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...WILL END SHOWER CHANCES OVER NE WISCONSIN
AT THIS TIME.  BUT FARTHER WEST...THINK SCT TO WIDELY SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE IN THE EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  THEN MAY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BEFORE
WRAP AROUND LOW STRATUS FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA DROPS INTO N-C
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE WITH THE
STRATUS AS WELL.  THE EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN MUGGY...THEN SHOULD
SEE COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVE WITH THE STRATUS.  LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE THE LOW STRATUS SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME HELP FROM DAYTIME HEATING.  SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
MORNING UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEN
SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
RETREATS.  COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

SEVERAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND SREF...APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
AND BRING PCPN TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE MORE CLOSELY
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH SHOW LESS FEEDBACK...AND FOCUS
THE MCS ACTIVITY OVER IA/N IL...NORTH OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT CHC POPS GOING FOR C/EC WI
LATE TUES NGT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STABILITY INDICES INDICATE
LITTLE THREAT FOR THUNDER.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST GOING FROM WEDS NGT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST IS NOT AS HIGH AS
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE ECMWF GENERATES SOME LIGHT PCPN IN
ASSOCIATION A S/W TROF MOVG THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND ALSO DEVELOPS SOME SCT CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WI ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLIER IN THE DAY AND PRIOR TO A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER
MINNESOTA WHICH WILL WORK OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL TRACK OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. AT 630 PM
CDT...THE STRONGEST STORM WITH A GUST TO 39 KNOTS AT WISCONSIN
RAPIDS AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH...MAY WORK INTO THE FOX CITIES
AROUND 8 PM IF THE STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER. STORMS IN GENERAL
PULSING BUT DURATION APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO A LACK OF
CONVERGENCE.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL STARTING TONIGHT UNTIL AN
AREA OF WRAP AROUND MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
BUT LINGERING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

DENSE FOG HAS SHIFTED EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL SUPPORT SCA OR NEAR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
MARINE.........TDH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 646 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.  THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS
EXITED THE DOOR PENINSULA...BUT SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. DESPITE A LACK OF DESTABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM
WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SINCE TEMPS HAVE
NOT RECOVERED MUCH FROM THE EARLIER RAINS.  LOOKING EVEN FURTHER
UPSTREAM...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND SHOWERS IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA.  THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TIP OF JAMES BAY.  RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...WILL END SHOWER CHANCES OVER NE WISCONSIN
AT THIS TIME.  BUT FARTHER WEST...THINK SCT TO WIDELY SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE IN THE EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  THEN MAY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BEFORE
WRAP AROUND LOW STRATUS FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA DROPS INTO N-C
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE WITH THE
STRATUS AS WELL.  THE EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN MUGGY...THEN SHOULD
SEE COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVE WITH THE STRATUS.  LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE THE LOW STRATUS SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME HELP FROM DAYTIME HEATING.  SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
MORNING UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEN
SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
RETREATS.  COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

SEVERAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND SREF...APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
AND BRING PCPN TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE MORE CLOSELY
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH SHOW LESS FEEDBACK...AND FOCUS
THE MCS ACTIVITY OVER IA/N IL...NORTH OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT CHC POPS GOING FOR C/EC WI
LATE TUES NGT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STABILITY INDICES INDICATE
LITTLE THREAT FOR THUNDER.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST GOING FROM WEDS NGT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST IS NOT AS HIGH AS
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE ECMWF GENERATES SOME LIGHT PCPN IN
ASSOCIATION A S/W TROF MOVG THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND ALSO DEVELOPS SOME SCT CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WI ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLIER IN THE DAY AND PRIOR TO A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER
MINNESOTA WHICH WILL WORK OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL TRACK OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. AT 630 PM
CDT...THE STRONGEST STORM WITH A GUST TO 39 KNOTS AT WISCONSIN
RAPIDS AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH...MAY WORK INTO THE FOX CITIES
AROUND 8 PM IF THE STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER. STORMS IN GENERAL
PULSING BUT DURATION APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO A LACK OF
CONVERGENCE.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL STARTING TONIGHT UNTIL AN
AREA OF WRAP AROUND MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
BUT LINGERING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR.  THOUGH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA CONDITIONS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING...WEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN.  WILL LEAVE THAT TO
LATER SHIFTS TO UPDATE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
MARINE.........MPC







FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREAS AND ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ML CAPES
OVER 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER CELLULAR
IN NATURE BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SLOW CONGEALING TREND FROM
NORTHERN IOWA TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN POSSIBLY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THOUGH HAVE A HAD A FEW WIND REPORTS TO 45 MPH...THE
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE FLASH FLOODING IN THE CENTRAL TO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN CORRIDOR.  THE DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS IS
NOT QUITE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW...SO CONCERNS THAT THE OUTFLOW
WILL CAUSE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME.  WILL PASS
ALONG THE CONCERNS TO THE EVENING SHIFT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.  CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TONIGHT...RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE FEATURES TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.  TRAILING
END OF ONE VORT MAX WILL BE DEPARTING FAR NE WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING WHILE ANOTHER TAIL OF A VORT WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ROBBING THE MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD...AND
FOCUSING THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS HERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BUT ONCE
THESE FEATURES EXIT...THINK WILL SEE A GENERAL DIMINISHING PRECIP
TREND AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT IS LOST.  AFTER
PLENTY OF RAINFALL IN SPOTS TODAY AND A HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE...SUPPORT IS THERE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG LATER TONIGHT. WILL FOCUS THE STRONGER FOG WORDING OVER CENTRAL
AND N-C WISCONSIN WHERE MOS GUIDANCE HITS THE LOWER VSBYS HARDER.
THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AS THIS
OCCURS...FORCING ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELEVATED CAPES REACHING 600 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS AROUND
20 KTS.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LLJ LATE TONIGHT AND A SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE HIGHER IF THIS DEVELOPS.  BUT CURRENTLY THINKING FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN THAN A SEVERE THREAT. MUGGY NIGHT
TIME LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NE TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS IT DRAGS A COOL FRONT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
SINCE WINDS ARE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY.  FORCING ALOFT IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION LOOKS MORE ROBUST AND THINK WILL DRIVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  WITH FORCING ALOFT INCREASING DURING THE
MORNING...THINK WILL SEE AN AREA OF STORMS MOVE FROM SW TO NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ML
CAPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 700-1000 J/KG RANGE WHILE
BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS OVER NE WISCONSIN.  IF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP DO NOT HOLD TEMPS BACK...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER NE WISCONSIN.  RATHER SKINNY CAPE
SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND TO GO ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

WILL BE BRIEF...AS NEAR-SEVERE TSTMS HAVE KEPT US BUSY THIS AFTERNOON.

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL STILL HAVE LINGERING
POPS MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ON TUESDAY FOR SOME LIGHT WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO
MAINTAINED SOME SMALL POPS OVER C/EC WI ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HUDSON BAY
IS EXPECTED SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STORMS.
PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT
THE MOMENT...AND WITH PRECIPITATION MOST WIDESPREAD IN THIS
AREA...TOUGH TO TIME IF AND WHEN A RETURN TO VFR WILL OCCUR.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.  AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...THE BEST GUESS
FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE
MONDAY MORNING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BETWEEN UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
INCLUDE ONE NEAR DULUTH...ANOTHER STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA AND A THIRD OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE TAIL
END OF THE DULUTH SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH LACK OF CAPPING
AND MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG HAS SUPPORTED NUMEROUS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN WI INTO SOUTHEAST MN. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S HAS HELPED SUPPORT THE
MUCAPE VALUES. HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN A BIG CONCERN WITH THE STORMS
AS THE OVERALL 0-6KM SHEAR IS 20 KT OR LESS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
HAS BEEN RUNNING 1.6-1.8 INCHES. HOWEVER...HAVE ALSO HAD TO
CONTEND WITH SOME WIND WITH 0-3KM SHEAR RUNNING 20-30
KT...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO HELP PRODUCE WET .
MEANWHILE...TO OUR SOUTHWEST...NUMEROUS CONVECTION WAS PRESENT
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THERE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MN BACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WAS ALSO PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FORCE
THE CONVECTION.

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL HANDLING CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY WITH
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND
A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THUS...MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS
BASED ON ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND OTHER
CONVECTIVE SIGNALS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

CONVECTION CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS A BIG TIE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...ANTICIPATING A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER
SUNSET. ADDITIONALLY...THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE CONVECTION
OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTED BY THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS SUGGEST THESE TWO
SHORTWAVES MAY MERGE...LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING. GOOD DPVA SIGNAL...ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER INCREASE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES.
THUS...BELIEVE SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EITHER AS SOON AS
LATE THIS EVENING...OR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION MAY BE DONE WITH AFTER 12Z...OR PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS ARE
STILL MAINTAINED IN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LOW WITH 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR MOSTLY UNDER 20
KT THROUGH 06Z. THE SHEAR DOES TICK UP TOWARDS 12Z...TO 20-
30KT...BUT THERE IS BIG UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE
AROUND. THUS...FEEL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. REGARDING
THAT RAIN THREAT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN RECENT
RAIN...THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE
INFORMATION IN THE  DISCUSSION BELOW.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY SLOT SHOULD BE PUNCHING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES IN OVER NORTHERN MN. MEANWHILE...THE CURRENT COLD FRONT
OFF IN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO PASS COMPARED TO
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY 19Z...THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR LA CROSSE.
THE QUESTION IS IF ENOUGH RECOVERY AND CONVERGENCE CAN OCCUR ON THE
FRONT TO COUNTERACT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. HAVE CARRIED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE EVENT IT CAN
OCCUR. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS STILL ONLY 20-30KT...SO AT MOST
MAYBE SOME SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ASSUMING CONVECTION
FIRES. ANY CONVECTION WILL PUSH OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH THE
AREA LIKELY DRY AFTER 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON AN UPPER LOW COMING INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

FIRST...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN MN UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT...TRACKING
ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-94 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWER
ACTIVITY VS THUNDERSTORM GIVEN TIME OF NIGHT AND COOLER AIRMASS.
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SAY 15Z
TUESDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
HEADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
SHEARED OUT WAVE. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN MCS AHEAD OF
THE WAVE IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS MCS...LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF A BOW ECHO...SHOULD PROPAGATE AT LEAST TO THE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWING THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...CORFIDI VECTORS AND THOSE THAT FORWARD
PROPAGATE SUGGEST EVEN A BIT MOVEMENT SOUTH OF DUE EAST. THUS...
BELIEVE THE 01.12Z NAM AND 01.09Z SREF MEAN ARE INCORRECT BRINGING
THE MCS NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
01.12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF LOOK MUCH MORE REALISTIC...
KEEPING IT TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE SHIFTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES A BIT MORE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE
CHANCES COULD BE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN LATER FORECASTS.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THEN SHOULD TAKE HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE FROM CANADA. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT
SHOULD ALSO HELP FOR THE DRY FORECAST BY PUTTING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR AN UPPER
TROUGH TO DIG DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. DPVA FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH PLUS SOME MOISTURE
STREAMING AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...CHANCES EXIST IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM
MORNING CONVECTION LEADING TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
HEADED FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THUNDER WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KRST/KLSE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS
SUCH...OPTED TO CARRY GENERAL THUNDER AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL TIED TO INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT HEADED IN DURING
THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE INTO IFR. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KRST. ALSO...LOOK FOR A DIMINISHING TREND
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERS ACTIVITY AFTER 12Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY AFFECTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 18...BROUGHT ANYWHERE FROM 1/4 TO AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES PER RADAR ESTIMATES. IN FACT...THE AUSTIN AWOS
REPORTED 1.74 INCHES IN 1 HOUR...BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM...WITH
HEAVIER CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH THERE. STREET FLOODING WAS
OBSERVED IN AUSTIN DUE TO THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATE. GIVEN
THAT THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY NOT DIMINISH UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONCERNED ANOTHER 1 INCH
IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THEN THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENTERING WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MN WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING PERHAPS
ANOTHER 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THUS...VERY CONCERNED WE COULD
END UP WITH SOME FLOODING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 18 SEEM MOST FAVORABLE GIVEN RAIN LOCATION TODAY...SO
LEFT OUT FAYETTE...CLAYTON AND GRANT.

WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RIVERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK AS ALL OF THE RAIN RUNS THROUGH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...UPSTREAM HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY BRING
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT LOCATION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     WIZ032.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     MNZ079.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...AJ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1244 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WITH ANOTHER AREA NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING RAIN CHANCES WITH NONE OF THE SHORT TERM MESO MODELS
HAVING MUCH OF A HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE
PRODUCTION PROBLEMS WITH THE 31.20Z THE LAST FULL RUN AVAILABLE IN
AWIPS AND ON THE WEB. THE 01.00Z HI-RES ARW SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE CONVECTION OUT WEST OKAY BUT HAS NO CLUE ON THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST...EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z BUT PLAN
TO HOLD ON TO AT LEAST SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE EVENT THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS UNTIL THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOWS ITS DIURNAL DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST IS CLOSE TO THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. IT IS ALSO BEING
AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE AFTERNOON IS GOING TO PLAY OUT. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THIS COULD TEMPORARILY LEAVE THE AREA WITHOUT MUCH
DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE COMPENSATED BY THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
WITH AFTERNOON ML CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 1 TO 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
IN THIS AXIS OF CAPE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL HAVE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE
01.00Z NAM SHOWING IT PRODUCING SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER. ALL THE 01.00Z MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL
FROM ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON
ITS LOCATION. THE NAM AND 01.00Z ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER WESTERN
OR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHILE THE 01.00Z GFS HAS THE LOW NEAR
THE TWIN CITIES. GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL STILL BE
OVER THE AREA...FEEL THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE
FRONT INTO THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE NAM AND ECMWF
PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WOULD PUT
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.
THIS SHOULD THEN PLACE THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN
CHANCES FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST UP TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
WEST.

FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST AS WELL. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF ALL SHOWING DIFFERENT POSITIONS. THESE MODELS DO SHOW
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
IOWA DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH OUT THE DAY WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND WILL START IN THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GENERAL FORCING WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE CONTINUING. STILL COULD BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.

SEVERE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. ML
CAPES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE WITH THE SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER REMAINING IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3 TO 4 KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5 TO
1.8 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT WITH GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...GFS AND 01.00Z GEM SHOWING THIS LOW BETWEEN OMAHA AND
KANSAS CITY. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD
OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN TO FORM
NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE ACTIVITY GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM
MORNING CONVECTION LEADING TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
HEADED FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THUNDER WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KRST/KLSE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS
SUCH...OPTED TO CARRY GENERAL THUNDER AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL TIED TO INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT HEADED IN DURING
THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE INTO IFR. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KRST. ALSO...LOOK FOR A DIMINISHING TREND
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERS ACTIVITY AFTER 12Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     WIZ032.

MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     MNZ079.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...DAS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 629 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WITH ANOTHER AREA NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING RAIN CHANCES WITH NONE OF THE SHORT TERM MESO MODELS
HAVING MUCH OF A HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE
PRODUCTION PROBLEMS WITH THE 31.20Z THE LAST FULL RUN AVAILABLE IN
AWIPS AND ON THE WEB. THE 01.00Z HI-RES ARW SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE CONVECTION OUT WEST OKAY BUT HAS NO CLUE ON THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST...EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z BUT PLAN
TO HOLD ON TO AT LEAST SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE EVENT THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS UNTIL THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOWS ITS DIURNAL DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST IS CLOSE TO THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. IT IS ALSO BEING
AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE AFTERNOON IS GOING TO PLAY OUT. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THIS COULD TEMPORARILY LEAVE THE AREA WITHOUT MUCH
DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE COMPENSATED BY THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
WITH AFTERNOON ML CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 1 TO 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
IN THIS AXIS OF CAPE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL HAVE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE
01.00Z NAM SHOWING IT PRODUCING SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER. ALL THE 01.00Z MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL
FROM ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON
ITS LOCATION. THE NAM AND 01.00Z ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER WESTERN
OR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHILE THE 01.00Z GFS HAS THE LOW NEAR
THE TWIN CITIES. GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL STILL BE
OVER THE AREA...FEEL THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE
FRONT INTO THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE NAM AND ECMWF
PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WOULD PUT
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.
THIS SHOULD THEN PLACE THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN
CHANCES FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST UP TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
WEST.

FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST AS WELL. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF ALL SHOWING DIFFERENT POSITIONS. THESE MODELS DO SHOW
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
IOWA DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH OUT THE DAY WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND WILL START IN THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GENERAL FORCING WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE CONTINUING. STILL COULD BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.

SEVERE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. ML
CAPES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE WITH THE SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER REMAINING IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3 TO 4 KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5 TO
1.8 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT WITH GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...GFS AND 01.00Z GEM SHOWING THIS LOW BETWEEN OMAHA AND
KANSAS CITY. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD
OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN TO FORM
NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE ACTIVITY GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

SINCE THE LATEST HRRR AND 01.06Z ARW SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE EXISTING PRECIPITATION TRENDED THE TAFS TOWARD THEM. EXPECT
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...REMOVED THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND RAISED
CEILINGS INTO THE 8 TO 14K RANGE AT BOTH TAF SITES. WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND 01.17Z AT KRST AND AROUND 07.20Z AT KLSE. AT THE SAME
TIME...EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 5K FEET.

AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT
KRST BETWEEN 02.01Z AND 02.03Z...AND AT KLSE BETWEEN 02.03Z AND
02.05Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME BRIEFLY IFR/MVFR IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WITH ANOTHER AREA NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING RAIN CHANCES WITH NONE OF THE SHORT TERM MESO MODELS
HAVING MUCH OF A HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE
PRODUCTION PROBLEMS WITH THE 31.20Z THE LAST FULL RUN AVAILABLE IN
AWIPS AND ON THE WEB. THE 01.00Z HI-RES ARW SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE CONVECTION OUT WEST OKAY BUT HAS NO CLUE ON THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST...EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z BUT PLAN
TO HOLD ON TO AT LEAST SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE EVENT THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS UNTIL THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOWS ITS DIURNAL DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST IS CLOSE TO THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. IT IS ALSO BEING
AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE AFTERNOON IS GOING TO PLAY OUT. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THIS COULD TEMPORARILY LEAVE THE AREA WITHOUT MUCH
DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE COMPENSATED BY THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
WITH AFTERNOON ML CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 1 TO 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
IN THIS AXIS OF CAPE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL HAVE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE
01.00Z NAM SHOWING IT PRODUCING SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER. ALL THE 01.00Z MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL
FROM ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON
ITS LOCATION. THE NAM AND 01.00Z ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER WESTERN
OR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHILE THE 01.00Z GFS HAS THE LOW NEAR
THE TWIN CITIES. GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL STILL BE
OVER THE AREA...FEEL THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE
FRONT INTO THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE NAM AND ECMWF
PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WOULD PUT
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.
THIS SHOULD THEN PLACE THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN
CHANCES FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST UP TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
WEST.

FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST AS WELL. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF ALL SHOWING DIFFERENT POSITIONS. THESE MODELS DO SHOW
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
IOWA DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH OUT THE DAY WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND WILL START IN THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GENERAL FORCING WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE CONTINUING. STILL COULD BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.

SEVERE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. ML
CAPES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE WITH THE SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER REMAINING IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3 TO 4 KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5 TO
1.8 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT WITH GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...GFS AND 01.00Z GEM SHOWING THIS LOW BETWEEN OMAHA AND
KANSAS CITY. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD
OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN TO FORM
NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE ACTIVITY GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

LINE OR SHRA/TS ACROSS WESTERN WI MAKING A NORTHEAST TREK...FIRING
ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AND IN A WEAK FRONTOGENETIC REGION.
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACCOMPANYING THE LINE...BUT IT
HAS EXITED PAST KLSE. FARTHER WEST...SHRA/TS CONTINUE TO SPARK
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...HEADING NORTHEAST. RADAR AND MESO MODEL TRENDS
FAVOR KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY WEST OF KRST FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WORKING IN AFTER 12Z SAT. KLSE WOULD LIKELY STAY
DRY...WITH ONLY AN ISOLD SHRA/TS THREAT.

MORE SHRA/TS COULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGION.
RAP13/NAM12 CONTINUE TO POINT TO THIS. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD HELP THIS PCPN THREAT. HARD TO PINPOINT AN
AREA/TIMING FOR THE HIGHER SHRA/TS CHANCES...AND WILL USE BROADER
BRUSH STROKES FOR PCPN CHANCES UNTIL TIMING CAN BE NARROWED DOWN.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A WET AND STORMY
PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT FINALLY WORKING INTO THE AREA. A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION.....RIECK



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 326 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH ITS
AXIS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH WINDS GOING NORTH TO NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS MOVING OVER MUCH OF CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WEAK INSTABILITY IS SHOWN UP IN THIS REGION...LARGELY
CAUSED BY COOL MIDLVL TEMPS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE
SVR STORMS THROUGH THE AFTN OVER THE CWA...HOWEVER THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS
IS WHERE THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
CO-LOCATED WITH 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION AND
DECREASING INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTN ARE NEGATIVES FOR STRONGER
STORMS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
STORMS DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS WILL
WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING...NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT
WHERE STORMS LINGERED LATE INTO THE NIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MIDLVL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH SFC WINDS TURNING TO THE SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF AT ALL...WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH
THE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS COME UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY
TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTN. THE TIMING
OF THE WAVE IS SUCH THAT THE DRYLINE IS LOCATED OVER THE PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND DEWPOINTS
ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE VERY HIGH (60-65F) TO THE EAST.
INSTABILITY IS EXCELLENT (LI VALUES OF -9C) AS IS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SVR STORMS OVER OUR
EASTERN ZONES. OF COURSE IF THE WAVE IS SLOWER AND THE SFC TROUGH
IS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BACK UP ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE THEN THE SVR THREAT WOULD EXTEND TO ALMOST THE ENTIRE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

GFS SHOWS MAIN SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE
TUESDAY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
MID/UPPER DRYSLOT WORKING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THIS
FAR NORTH WITH THE UPPER DRYSLOT AND HENCE WOULD SUGGEST SOMEWHAT
GREATER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA
AND OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT OVERALL MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND FAIRLY ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SEMI-
ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES
WHEN EACH PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE OUR AREA...SO WE
KEPT AT LEAST SOME POPS GOING MOST AREAS WITH CHANCE POPS
CONCENTRATED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY AS GFS (AND TO SOME DEGREE
THE ECMWF) DEPICTS A LARGESCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING TO OUR EAST WITH
RIDGING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH ON
AMPLIFYING THE EASTERN TROUGH...SO WE MAY END UP RAISING POPS FOR
SUNDAY ON SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETTING A SHOVE SOUTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER
AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A PASSING LOW OVER SOUTHERN
MONTANA EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MEDICINE BOW WY TO KIMBALL NE TODAY...MEANING BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WOULD BE IN THE
CHADRON...SCOTTSBLUFF...ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY AREAS FOR AVIATION
FORECAST PURPOSES. ALSO...GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND RAWLINS AND LARAMIE...AND INCLUDED
VCNTY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT THOSE AIRPORTS.
HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE 01Z-03Z
TIMEFRAME OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
MONTANA LIFTS A BIT FARTHER OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WITH
THE LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT AND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER 02Z
TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 15 PERCENT BY
TUESDAY.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT FORECASTED
SINCE FUELS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE GROWTH.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH
PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED AND STAGES SHOULD BEGIN TO RECEDE
THROUGH MIDWEEK.  A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOWMELT EACH DAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 344 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

08Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave moving across southern
NV towards the four corners region with a plume of subtropical
moisture being pulled into the central Rockies. Surface obs show a
warm and very moist airmass remains in place across the southern
and central plains. A poorly defined stationary front was set up
across southern Neb and southern IA as indicated by the objective
analysis of isotherms and isodrosotherms.

For today models show a good thermodynamic profile for deep moist
convection to develop across the area. Surface based CAPE is progged
to increase to as much as 3000 J/kg with little inhibition initially
over northeast KS. There is also some indication of increasing Q
vector convergence and PVA in advance of the shortwave as it crosses
the central Rockies this afternoon. The main source of uncertainty
in the models is the location of the surface boundary during peak
heating. The NAM/GEM/HRRR/RAP are tending to keep the boundary near
the NEB state line or slightly north of the state line. And the
GFS/ECMWF solutions lift the boundary north very quickly in the
evening. The other complicating factor is the advection of a strong
elevated mixed layer (EML) from the southwest through the evening.
With the majority of solutions suggesting the boundary and low level
focus for convection will be closer to the NEB state line, the
forecast continues to show the higher POPs over far northeast KS.
Have only a slight chance POP from Abilene to Emporia thinking the
capping inversion will advect into these areas by the late afternoon
inhibiting convection. By the late evening, the EML is likely to
bring an end to convection from west to east over the area.

As for severe potential, large hail and damaging winds would be a
good bet with any storms that develop given the 0-6 km shear of 50
to 60 kts and moderate instability. Discrete storms should quickly
become supercells due to the good deep layer shear. However 0-1 km
shear parameters from the NAM and RAP are rather weak (bulk shear
around 10 kts) through the afternoon, and models don`t show these
fields increasing until the low level jet begins increasing through
the evening. By this time, models suggest that convection may have
evolved into an MCS. So while there is a chance for tornados through
the afternoon, am not sure the set up is ideal. The exception would
be if the boundary sets up further south and surface winds are able
to remain backed to the southeast. If this were to occur, it would
most likely be across far northeast KS and still 0-1 km shear
parameters may only be marginally better for tornados. Additionally
heavy rain and flash flooding will pose a hazard as models show PWs
approaching 2 inches along the MO river valley this evening.
Considered a flash flood watch for northeast KS, but with most of
the guidance keeping the axis of heavier rainfall north of the
forecast area decided to hold off.

With models bringing the thermal ridge into central KS today, highs
should be warmer with upper 80s in the far east to middle 90s in
central KS. Previous forecast high looks reasonable and only made
minor adjustments. Tonight think the MCS should move off to the east
shortly after midnight as the EML continues advecting in. As for
lows Wednesday morning, models have trended slower with the Pacific
front sweeping through the area. This would keep a breezy southwest
wind and a mixed boundary layer for much of the forecast area.
Because of this have trended min temps up into the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Wednesday and Wednesday Night...An upper level trough will shift
east across the southern Great Lakes States and OH river valley. a
surface ridge will build southward into eastern KS through the
afternoon hours. Expect dry conditions through most of the period.
An MCS may develop across southeast CO and southwest KS during the
evening hours and track east across south central KS through the
night. This thunderstorm complex may begin to move into the
southwest counties of the CWA by sunrise. Highs will reach the mid
80s across much of the area with upper 80s across the southeast
counties. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday and Thursday night...the northern edge of the MCS may move
east across the southern counties of the CWA during the morning
hours. A minor H5 trough will move east across the state and will
bring a chance for thunderstorms across the remainder of the CWA
during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these thunderstorms
may be strong to severe with the primary hazards being large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Another MCS may develop across
northeast NM and southeast CO. This MCS may track south of the CWA
late Thursday night into Friday morning. Highs will be around 80.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 60s.

Friday through Sunday...there will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms as an upper level trough across the desert southwest
gradually lifts northeast across the central an southern plains. Our
best chance for rain may occur Saturday night through Sunday morning
as the stronger ascent spreads northeast across eastern KS ahead of
the H5 trough. Also, a surface cold front will be pushing southeast
across the state of KS Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. The
front may push southeast of the CWA by Sunday afternoon allowing for
skies to clear.

Highs will be dependent on cloud cover but expect upper 70s to lower
80s for most areas. Sunday may be slightly cooler behind the cold
front with mid to upper 70s expected. Overnight lows will be in the
60s.

Monday...a surface ridge will build southward across KS bringing
dry weather. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

For the 06z TAFs, calm winds overnight will become out of the south
by Tuesday morning and increase during the afternoon and evening
hours with gusts upwards of 20-30kts. Thunderstorm chances will
increase near the TAF sites by early evening, however there is still
uncertainty in the timing and tracking of these storms. Have added
VCTS at 02z Wed, but timing may need to be adjusted with future
updates as models get a better handle on this activity. Strong winds
are expected with these evening storms, so wind gusts will likely
need to be increased as we gain better confidence in the tracking of
these storms near the TAF sites.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 521 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED VORT
MAX OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/CENTRAL UPPER MI FROM LOW PRES OVER ONTARIO NE
OF THE LAKE. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SCT SHRA ALONG THIS
TROUGH/FRONT AND THERE WAS EVEN AN ISOLD TSRA EARLIER THIS MORNING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE MUCAPES WERE STILL NEAR 500 J/KG.

TODAY...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY MORE TSRA ALONG THE FRONT THIS
MORNING AS THE NCEP RAP MODEL SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY HAS MOVED EAST.
MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE
TIED TO MID-LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN THE
COMMA HEAD OF THE VORT MAX. EXPECT THE BEST CHC OF SHRA TO BE OVER
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO THE NE FCST
LATE THIS MORNING WITH MVMT OF THE VORT MAX AND ITS ASSOC COMMA
HEAD. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT REPORTED AT THE KIWD AWOS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS NEAR
25 KT THROUGH MIXED LAYER AND THE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NE FCST AREA FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS. GOOD
MID-LVL DRYING/CONFLUENCE AND Q-VECT DIVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
VORT MAX SHOULD PUT AN END TO MOST SHRA ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MODELS SNDGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 800 MB
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SCNTRL...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY WHERE A LONGER PD OF SUNSHINE COULD
PUSH READINGS INTO THE LOWER TO EVEN MID 70S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ON MIN TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S...COOLEST OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR WHERE PWATS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND READINGS
COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND STRADDLING THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND UP TO HUDSON BAY. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
ROTATING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND
LOCATIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM A PARENT HIGH ON THE SOUTHWEST
SHORELINE OF HUDSON BAY WILL STRETCH SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST) WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE (50S TO
MID 60S...COOLEST EAST) WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PRODUCES LIGHT WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS WITH
RESPECT TO NORMAL AND HAVE LOWS OF LOW-MID 40S. WITH THE DRIER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT COULD ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. CURRENT THINKING IS RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS ARE STRONGER...BUT DRYING FROM
RECENT RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND NEAR 25
PERCENT AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL ALSO
BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT GROWTH IF FIRES OCCURRED. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINTS OF A
WEAK AND ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE DRY
RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BUT WILL
SHOW SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT ON THIS
IDEA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.

UPPER RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING EAST ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING. A COUPLE MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKING AT WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED
(GENERALLY WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MN ARROWHEAD)...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON PRECIP OCCURRING ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND
DRIER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...WHICH KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. WHERE THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IS WITH THE COUPLE
SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THAT OCCURS...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM A PARENT LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WILL USE THAT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THEN TREND TOWARDS DRY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCMX
AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON
TUE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT ALL SITES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY AT ALL SITES INTO
TUE AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED MIXING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH INCREASED MIXING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WNW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND COULD REACH NEAR 30 KTS OVER SCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO SAT AS SFC HIGH PRES GENERALLY
DOMINATES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 401 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC... A TROUGH EXTENDED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES OVER NE MN. A FRONT EXTENDED
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NRN MN. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS
LIFTING QUICKLY TO THE ENE INTO THE FAR ERN CWA LEAVING SCT/ISOLD
SHRA OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD TSRA OVER NW WI.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE SCT SHRA
INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FCST MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE
400-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEST AFT 06Z. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TUESDAY...SCT SHRA IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING AND STRONG DRYING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SHRTWV. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE KEWEENAW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND STRADDLING THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND UP TO HUDSON BAY. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
ROTATING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND
LOCATIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM A PARENT HIGH ON THE SOUTHWEST
SHORELINE OF HUDSON BAY WILL STRETCH SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST) WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE (50S TO
MID 60S...COOLEST EAST) WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PRODUCES LIGHT WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS WITH
RESPECT TO NORMAL AND HAVE LOWS OF LOW-MID 40S. WITH THE DRIER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT COULD ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. CURRENT THINKING IS RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS ARE STRONGER...BUT DRYING FROM
RECENT RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND NEAR 25
PERCENT AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL ALSO
BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT GROWTH IF FIRES OCCURRED. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINTS OF A
WEAK AND ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE DRY
RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BUT WILL
SHOW SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT ON THIS
IDEA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.

UPPER RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING EAST ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING. A COUPLE MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKING AT WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED
(GENERALLY WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MN ARROWHEAD)...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON PRECIP OCCURRING ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND
DRIER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...WHICH KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. WHERE THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IS WITH THE COUPLE
SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THAT OCCURS...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM A PARENT LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WILL USE THAT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THEN TREND TOWARDS DRY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCMX
AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON
TUE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT ALL SITES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY AT ALL SITES INTO
TUE AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED MIXING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR ANY TSRA
OVER MAINLY THE WRN LAKES. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO THU AS A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY SLOWLY
BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 128 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC... A TROUGH EXTENDED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES OVER NE MN. A FRONT EXTENDED
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NRN MN. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS
LIFTING QUICKLY TO THE ENE INTO THE FAR ERN CWA LEAVING SCT/ISOLD
SHRA OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD TSRA OVER NW WI.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE SCT SHRA
INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FCST MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE
400-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEST AFT 06Z. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TUESDAY...SCT SHRA IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING AND STRONG DRYING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SHRTWV. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE KEWEENAW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

OTHER THAN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FAR E ON NW FLOW FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

THE EXITING 500MB LOW JUST W OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
LAKE HURON AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT. A SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION
WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND DIVE ACROSS WI
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR S.
IF THE STRONGER 12Z NAM PANS OUT IT COULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY
OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
CLIPPING MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR NOW...AS THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER.

THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE MOISTURE ABLE TO
ROUND THE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...AVERAGING ABOUT
6HRS WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AT 18Z THURSDAY
OFF THE GFS AND NAM...WHILE ACROSS MUCH WEAKER AND OVER CENTRAL MN
OFF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TREND FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

EXPECT GOOD MIXING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 750MB...IN
FACT ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 600MB. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT RH VALUES TO SLOWLY
FALL EACH AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTERIOR W AND FAR E. PW
VALUES OFF THE GFS FALL TO AROUND 0.35-0.4IN OVER THE E HALF OF
UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING /NEAR 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. AS NOTED...FIRE CONCERNS WILL INCREASE BUT WINDS SHOULD
KEEP IT FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.

THE NEXT 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS ALBERTA AND AND SASKATCHEWAN ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR SW FLOW TO RETURN ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE N PLAINS. THE SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA
AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH ND. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS MN THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL INTO CANADA...CLOSER TO THE WRAPPED UP 500MB
LOW. SO WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE BEST CHANCE OFF THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS UPPER
MI. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE A MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND S PLAINS AT
18Z SATURDAY TRACKING NE UP THE SFC TROUGH...BY 12Z SUNDAY THE SFC
LOW COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE S MN/WI BORDER TO IA...TO ILLINOIS.
THAT IS ENOUGH SPREAD TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND
SATURDAY...OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCMX
AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON
TUE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT ALL SITES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY AT ALL SITES INTO
TUE AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED MIXING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR ANY TSRA
OVER MAINLY THE WRN LAKES. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO THU AS A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY SLOWLY
BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ162-263>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 349 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS OVER THE
BILLINGS AREA LATE LAST EVENING CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND SUSTAIN
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT OF A LOW- LEVEL JET ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SATELLITE AND RADAR ALSO SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE THIS JET IS A BIT STRONGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS CARTER COUNTY BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA WILL EJECT A FEW DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING/SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY. A RETURN SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES. CAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG ACROSS THE WEST TO
1500J/KG ACROSS THE EAST COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONE INHIBITOR IS THAT WIND SHEAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE TODAY. THE HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BY NOON TODAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS
POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE POWDER
RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THAT AREA
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITAL WATERS WILL BE NEARING AN
INCH.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND A COOL FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE LESS TOMORROW SO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS
ADVERTISING A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO FULL GREENUP AND RECENT RAINFALL.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER REGIME IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LIMITING SOLAR HEATING.
UPSLOPE ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
BEST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA SWINGS THROUGH. SATURDAY STAYS COOL AS
THE UPSLOPE REGIME REMAINS AT THE LOWER LEVELS BUT AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DRY OUT THE WESTERN ZONES.

PATTERN BECOMES DOMINATED BY WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT BETTER MIXING AND HAVE PASSING DISTURBANCES PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIME LATER ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY A DEEPER MORE DYNAMIC WAVE WILL APPROACH BUT TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. STORMS WILL BE MOST INTENSE EAST OF BILLINGS AND SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SOUTHEAST MONTANA THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD SEE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50KT. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 055/078 054/073 049/063 045/067 048/078 051/078
    4/T 43/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 075 043/075 042/071 042/063 040/066 043/077 044/077
    4/T 43/T    23/T    34/T    43/T    32/T    22/T
HDN 079 052/078 051/075 048/066 046/069 047/079 050/080
    4/T 43/T    23/T    33/T    44/T    32/T    22/T
MLS 077 055/079 055/075 048/065 047/068 047/078 051/079
    4/T 43/T    32/T    33/T    33/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 071 052/076 052/075 049/062 048/067 045/077 049/079
    4/T 43/T    32/T    34/T    55/T    32/T    22/T
BHK 073 052/076 051/073 047/061 045/064 044/072 048/075
    4/T 44/T    32/T    44/T    33/T    32/T    22/T
SHR 077 048/076 046/072 044/063 043/063 042/075 046/076
    4/T 43/T    23/T    34/T    55/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 418 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD CERTAINLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NORTHEAST OF A
GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE. LESS FORCING AND A GREATER
CAP SHOULD DECREASE THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS YOU HEAD SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE EVEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD STORMS
FORM...JUST THE LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING THE STORMS TO INITIATE IS
LOWER OVER THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGH END SEVERE WORDING OF DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES ...HAIL OF BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH.

THE BIG QUESTIONS RELATED TO HOW SEVERE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT TODAY
CENTER AROUND WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP...AND HOW ONGOING
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE MORE VOLATILE AFTERNOON STORMS. THE 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND
00Z ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LATE AFTERNOON
WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND ORD TO FULLERTON
OR MAYBE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE WRF
MODELS AND EARLY RUNS OF THE RUC PLACE THE WARM FRONT EVEN FURTHER
NORTH TO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE. THE CONVECTIVE QPF IS
VERY SIMILAR AMONG THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC (MODELS...NAM... GFS...
ECMWF) WHICH FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTHEAST
OF THAT EARLIER MENTIONED GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE.
SOME WRF MODELS KEEP OUR ENTIRE CWA DRY WITH ALL THE CONVECTION
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE WRF MODELS INDICATE AND THUS COULD VERY EASILY
SEE THE WARM FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS MORNING
CONVECTION AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
MODELS.

WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TODAY BASED ON
ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
MID MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS PROBABLE COULD KEEP THE
WARM FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE MODELS
THAT KEEP THE WARM FRONT OVER OUR NORTHER FORECAST AREA AND MAY ALSO
LEAVE BEHIND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BECOME ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
OVER THE SANDHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS OF 4 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH
AS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6. THESE SOUTHERN STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A CAP AND LESS
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE. THE 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE BY EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 75
KTS RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OF 25 TO 30 KTS IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-
3000 J/KG ALSO SEEM REASONABLE. THE FORCING WILL BE THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDEAL TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO BE WEATHER AWARE
TODAY AND KEEP IN TUNE WITH THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS YOU
GO ABOUT YOUR DAY.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS LEADING TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
TIME. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY EARLIER THAN THAT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRICKY PART
IS GETTING THE TIMING DOWN ON THE WAVES. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE FEW DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. A SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
MODEL DIFFERENCE COMES FOR MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING AN UPPER WAVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE WAVE THAN THE
GFS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KGRI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL KEEP THE VICINITY WORDING IN
THE TAF UNTIL WE CAN BETTER NARROW DOWN THE TIMING. CERTAINLY A
DAY WHERE THOSE WITH AVIATION INTERESTS WILL WANT TO BE PAYING
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION NEAR OR IN KGRI WILL BE FROM 4 TO 8 PM.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 335 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO AN
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
TEXAS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD VALUES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE
LATER TODAY...WITH BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST...THEN
REAPPEAR WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BACKS DOWN A BIT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RESULTING IN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SHIFT/INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND LIKELY TEMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN 1-3 DEGREES FROM
UPWARD POTENTIAL. THAT SAID...WE`RE STILL FORECASTING RECORD OR
NEAR-RECORD HIGHS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA TODAY. THE RECORD
HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS EXTEND INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...SO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS GETTING JUICY. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN QPF FROM BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 05Z
HRRR...WITH THE DRYLINE BEING THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION. THE 00Z
NAM12 AND 05Z HRRR SHOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE...BUT WITH A CAPPING
INVERSION. THE NAM ALMOST COMPLETELY ERODES THE CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG THE DRYLINE BETWEEN 21-00Z. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING OUT EAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG
WINDS GUSTS GIVEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES. A FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE 00Z GFS NEAR SANTA ROSA
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH AN INVERTED-V LOOK BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE BEST CLOSER TO THE
TEXAS BORDER...BUT THEN EXPAND WEST TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO ANOTHER BACKDOOR PUSH.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH THE DRYLINE SLOSHING
BACK-AND-FORTH...THEN ANOTHER BACKDOOR PUSH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. VERY WARM AND
UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AS THE FOCUS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. VERY DRY AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY WEST...WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL DETERMINE RED FLAG COVERAGE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTER BARELY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DESPITE THE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO...COURTESY OF TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
COAST...SATELLITE PW PRODUCTS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY
ATMOSPHERE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MAINTAINING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WITH AN EXTREME WEST TO EAST CONTRAST...RH RECOVERS WILL BE POOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WESTERN ZONES BUT GOOD ACROSS THE EAST.

A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL INCREASE
GRADIENTS ENOUGH TODAY FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOST AREAS AND ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST.
ACROSS THE WEST...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT SUPER HAINES CONDITIONS THERE INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT THERE. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS WITH MOST AREAS
AFFECTED EXCEPT THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE POOR WEST AND
MOSTLY FAIR EAST WITH GOOD VALUES TO LIMITED TO THE EXTREME EASTERN
PLAINS.

THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ON WEDNESDAY USHERING IN MORE DRY AIR BUT
WINDS ALOFT DECREASE A BIT AND EVEN WITH CONTINUED DEEP MIXING IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOST
LOCATIONS. STILL VERY WARM AND DRY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY AFTERNOON. SUPER
HAINES CONDITIONS AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
WEST BY AFTERNOON. RH TO BE SINGLE DIGIT MOST AREAS EXCEPT EXTREME
EAST. HELD OFF ON A RED FLAG WATCH BUT CERTAINLY WEDNESDAY NEEDS TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

MORE OF THE SAME THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND THE
PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS...VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WEST AND MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
BACK DOOR FRONT THUS LIMITING MOISTURE INCREASES EAST. ONCE
AGAIN...ONLY WINDS WILL LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
ALL OTHER INGREDIENTS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE.

THE TROUGH FINALLY MAKES SUFFICIENT PROGRESS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
TO INITIATE VERY MODEST COOLING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A MORE VIGOROUS BACK DOOR FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EAST WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN AND GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. STILL VERY DRY WEST HOWEVER.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COULD SEE SOME
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS NEAR KCAO BTW 09-13Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. OTHERWISE...CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP TUES. WSW WINDS WITH
GUSTS BTW 25-30KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER 17Z
TUES...WHILE S TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH SIMILAR
GUSTS. WINDS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET TUES...BUT WINDS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTH.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  91  52  92  51 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  87  46  87  46 /   0   5   0   0
CUBA............................  90  51  90  49 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  89  46  89  46 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  86  44  86  43 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  90  47  90  47 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  91  53  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  96  51  96  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  84  45  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  90  59  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  88  57  87  57 /   5   5   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  86  47  86  46 /   0   0   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  77  46  77  46 /   0   0   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  79  41  80  40 /   0   0   5   0
TAOS............................  87  48  88  45 /   0   0   5   0
MORA............................  87  53  86  52 /   5   5   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  94  54  94  53 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  90  58  90  58 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  93  56  93  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  94  65  95  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  97  67  97  66 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  99  63  99  62 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  97  65  98  64 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS....................... 100  62 100  60 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  96  64  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO......................... 101  67 103  65 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  91  60  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  92  61  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  92  53  92  53 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  91  58  92  58 /   0   0   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  94  63  94  60 /   0   5   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  98  65  98  63 /   0   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  91  63  92  61 /  10  10  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  91  58  88  56 /   5   5   5  10
RATON...........................  94  53  92  53 /   0   5   5  10
SPRINGER........................  95  54  93  54 /   0   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  90  55  90  54 /   5   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  96  63  93  61 /  10  10   5  10
ROY.............................  93  61  92  59 /  10  10   5  10
CONCHAS.........................  98  63  97  63 /  10  10   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  97  64  98  63 /  10  10   5  10
TUCUMCARI....................... 102  68 103  68 /  10  10   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  96  64  99  66 /   5   5   5  20
PORTALES........................  97  65 100  67 /   5   5   5  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  97  66  99  67 /   5   5   5  10
ROSWELL......................... 101  69 105  69 /   0   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  99  65  98  67 /  10  10   5  10
ELK.............................  95  64  96  65 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$

11





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 141 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOLLOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE, DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. UPDATED THE
GRIDS TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS DIRECTLY
UPSTREAM, THEN TAPERED THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR HOUR #3 INTO ONEIDA
COUNTY, AS WE ANTICIPATE WEAKENING.

NOT MUCH SUPPORT REMAINING FOR CONVECTION DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL ADVANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SW FLOW HAS WRMD THE AREA NICELY THIS AFTN AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
TOCH 90F ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN NEAR SYR. SOME CONV HAS DVLPD OVER
XTRM WRN NY ALONG THE FRICTIONAL CONV BNDRY SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND
ARE MVG NE ATTM. OTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL ARM WEAKEN THE CONV AS IT
MVES EAST AND HAS LTL IN THE WAY OF SHWRS OVRNGT. NAM HOLDS CONV
TOGETHER BETTER AND HAS SOME WEAKENING CONV THRU MUCH OF THE NRN
THIRD OF THE AREA...LOW RESOLUTION GFS KIND SMEARS THE DEPICTION
OF THE CONV WHILE THE EURO GNRLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY.

WITH THE CONV ALREADY FIRING...DESPITE THE MODLE CONSENSUS HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...PRIMARILY OF THE NRN ZONES
TNGT IN CASE SOME OF THE CONV HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DRIFTS EAST AS
THE NAM SHOWS.

OTRW...A QUIET NGT WITH MODERATE TEMPS AND WINDS AHD OF THE APRCHG
FNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS USUAL...NOT A CLR CUT FNTL PASSAGE WITH THE MODELS
CONCENTRATING MUCH OF THE CONV TMRW ALONG A PRE FNTL TROF PASSING
THRU THE AREA BEFORE 18Z. NAM IS ONCE AGAIN AN OUTLIER WITH A
SECOND LINE OF CONV DVLPG ALONG THE COLD FNT LTR IN THE DAY AND IN
THE EARLY EVE. NAM FCSTD SNDGS ARE INDEED QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES BETTER THAN 1500 J/KG. GFS AND EURO DO ALSO SHOW SOME AFNT
CONV AS THE UPR WV AND SFC FNT APRCHS...SO HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
THE LIKELY POPS WHERE THERE/S THE BEST CHANCE PCPN EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH THE TROF...BUT WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS THRU THE AFTN AND
INTO PART OF THE EVE TO CVR THE POSSIBILTY OF A SECOND ROUND OF
CONV.

NEXT WX SYSTEM ARRIVES THUR AND WHILE THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EURO AND
GFS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THE NAM OFFERS A MUCH DFRNT
SOLN. EURO/GFS SOLN KEEP AND OPEN WV ACROSS THE LAKES AND PUSH A
WEAKER CLSD SFC LOW ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WED...
CONCENTRATING SHWRS AND TSTMS ALONG THE OLD SFC OVER PA. NAM
CLOSES OFF THE UPR LOW AND WRAPS UP A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM OVER
THE SRN LAKES BRINGING THE CONV FURTHER NORTH. WILL LEAN TWRD THE
LESS DRAMATIC GFS/EURO AND KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA...HIER
IN THE SOUTH...FOR THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO DRY AND MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EXPECT WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FOR ALL INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BEAUTY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN WARMER
VALUES ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
BEYOND THIS...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST. FOR NOW...HAVE ADVERTISED CHC POPS BEGINNING MONDAY WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE STAGES OF NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT COOLER YET SEASONABLE TEMPS /LOW TO MID
70S/ THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MRNG...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE
SOME 5SM BR TWDS DAYBREAK. OTRW...XPCT A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO
CROSS THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FNTL TROF.
ATTM WE ARE TIMING THE BEST CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM 16-18Z WRN
SITES ( SYR/ITH/ELM) TO 18-20Z ACRS THE EAST (AVP). THERE IS
POTNL FOR SCT SHRA EARLY THIS MRNG AND PSBLY LATE TDA AS A CDFNT
APRCHS BUT FOR NOW WE JUST SELECTED THE MOST FVRBL TIME FRAME FOR
PCPN. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT/DSPT BY THIS EVNG. XPCT
PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVNG...SOME MDLS PROFILES SHOW DVLPMNT OF
STRATUS LAYER AT A FEW SITES BUT GNRLY AFTER 06Z. WINDS THIS MRNG
LIGHT AND GNRLY SRLY OR SWLY...BECMG SWLY 10-15 KTS THIS MRNG...AND W
TO NW 5 KTS OR SO TNGT.


OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS.

WED...VFR.

THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.

FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1227 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

OTHER THAN TO BLEND OBSERVED TRENDS THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE DENSITY
OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE THE GREATEST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC...NO CHANGES
REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

DID EXPAND THE FOG MENTION TO ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ITS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT SHOULD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
BECOME NECESSARY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER
50S ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
SKIES CLEAR...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THUS...WIDESPREAD SURFACE SATURATION IS EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 21 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO
SUPPORT THE FOG THREAT AT MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF
RECENT RAINFALL AND GREEN-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

UPPER LOW IDENTIFIED ON 18Z/NAM MODEL OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW IN MINNESOTA WILL ALSO EXIT THE
REGION LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LARGE CLOUD
SHIELD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL SHRINK SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST WILL END BY SUNSET. AS
CLOUDS DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
INCREASES CENTRAL AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALREADY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY BRUSHING THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. FOR
TEMPERATURES IT WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
EXITING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE
DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A BREAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SET UP
WARMING AND INSTABILITY AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OFF AND ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MIGHT BRING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
IMPULSES REACHES NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN COOLING TO THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TAF SITES TONIGHT. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FIRST ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER AT SITES KISN AND KBIS AND SHORTLY AFTER AT
SITES KMOT...KDIK...AND KJMS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KBIS AND KISN WHERE FOG DENSITY WILL BE THE
GREATEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KMOT...KDIK...AND KJMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...MM






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1126 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

NOT ENOUGH CHANGES MADE TO WARRANT AN UPDATE THIS PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

MINOR UPDATES TO POPS AS PCPN CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN NOW CONFINED
TO THE NE FA. CLOUDS ALSO CLEARING NICELY FROM VALLEY WEST. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS POINTING TO SOME BR FORMATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
FA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING SO CURRENT FOG OUTLOOK LOOKS OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND ABLE TO
START TRIMMING POPS ACROSS WESTERN EDGE. ALSO SEEING MORE BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER SO MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
ADJUSTING CLOUD TRENDS AND POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

UPPER LOW NEAR BEMIDJI AT MID AFTERNOON WITH SFC LOW NEAR HIBBING
MN. WRAPAROUND RAIN AREA OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW END OF THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FCST TO SEE SHOWERS TIL LATE
TONIGHT.

QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF CLEARING AND TEMPS AND IF ANY FOG
FORMS. RAP MODEL AVIATION FCSTS DO INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW
CLOUDS PSBL IN THE MINOT-DEVILS LAKE-JAMESTOWN REGION LATE TONIGHT
SO COORD WITH WFO BIS AND INSERTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN FAR WRN
FCST AREA. DO EXPECT CLEARING TO PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT REACHING THE RRV TOWARD 06Z AND THEN FAR EAST AROUND 12Z.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER WITH SUNSHINE AND MIDDAY/AFTN
CUMULUS CLOUDS. WARMER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF RAIN
TO BYPASS OUR IMMEDIATE FCST AREA TO OUR SOUTH TUES AFTN-NIGHT
WITH RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SD/FAR SRN MN/IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WRN CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF A FRONT ENTERING
ERN ND WED AFTN AND THEN SPREADING EAST WED NIGHT. BRIEF BREAK
PSBL BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AFTN. MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUES TO LOOK WET
AND COOL. ALL MODELS START WITH A 500MB LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND ZONAL FLOW TO ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER LOTS OF DIFFERENCE AFTER
THIS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER WAVE FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HARD TO FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR TIME FRAME AND GO
DRY AS MODELS HAVE MARKED DIFFERENCES WITH THEIR PCPN FIELDS. THERE
WILL BE DRY PERIODS MIXED IN BUT WILL STICK WITH INHERITED BROAD
PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT. WITH THE WET AND CLOUDY PATTERN TEMPS WILL
STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
STILL NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH FOG POTENTIAL SO CONFIDENCE NOT
REAL HIGH BUT COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF BR WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEARING AND RECENT RAINFALL. WILL SEE SOME SCT-BKN VFR CU
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 343 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN RETREATING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ENTERING INTO
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EVIDENT
ON KRLX AND SURROUNDING WSR-88D. HAVE TIMED BAND INTO KCRW BY
12Z..AND EXITING EASTERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE 18Z.  THIS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN LINE WITH LATEST RUC FORECAST TRENDS.
LIKE THE IDEA OF ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWER AND STORMS FORMING UP ACROSS
SE OH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS UNSTABLE AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLD POPS FOR BETTER
PART OF TODAY DESPITE THE LULL.  FOR TEMPS...STAY WITH BIAS
CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED TEMPS.
NOTED THAT THERE ARE ONLY MINIMAL DIFFERENCES WITH VARIOUS TEMP
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED MORNING
MOVES NEWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WED.  THE TIMING OF THE
WARM ADVECTION AND THETA E FEED IS MIDDAY...BEYOND THE FAVORED EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION...SO DO EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO
MUCH.

A VIGOROUS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH DRIVES A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WED NT...WHICH IN TURN DRAGS A
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THU MORNING.  THERE IS MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES...BUT EVEN THE FASTER GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE W THROUGH WED AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA.  THIS MAY BE FURTHER MODULATED BY TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE ONGOING UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA EARLY WED AND
HOW FAR N THE WARM FRONT GETS WED.  GFS APPEARS TO FALL VICTIM TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PUTTING ITS QPF
IN QUESTION.

GULF INFLOW WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE AT ALL AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AMPLITUDE FEATURE.  HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA NOW WILL
NOT BE PUSHED FAR TO THE S BY THE FRONT THAT IS STALLED OUT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL QUICKLY RETURN.  THIS...ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON 50 KTS MEAN MID
LEVEL FLOW AND VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
CONCERT WITH SWODY2 FROM SPC...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MOVEMENT SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES IMPACT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS LEFT
THU...BUT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY NOT LEAVE MUCH FOR THU EVEN GIVEN
A SLOWER SOLN.  HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS PARTIAL CLEARING THU AFTERNOON
AND NT.

HIGHS LOOKED GOOD FOR WED.  BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
BEYOND THAT INCLUDING A RATHER MILD ALBEIT WET WED NT BUT A GOOD
DEAL COOLER THU NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AT LEAST IN THE
DEWPT DEPT. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX QUICKLY RETURNS TO ROUND OUT THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOTHER TROF
MAKING INROADS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
AMPLITUDE OF WHICH REMAINS IN QUESTION. NONETHELESS CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE GIVEN HEALTHY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TILL MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND INCREASES CLOUDS FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. A BAND OF
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AROUND 10Z THEN PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING BRINGING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AROUND 18Z. AFT 00Z WILL SEE SOME RECOVERY OF CIG AND VSBY VALUES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING
COULD VARY BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 06/03/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC/JR






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 434 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AS OF 4AM...
AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAIN HAS HUNG AROUND NEAR THE MS RIVER
DELTA TO THE SOUTH OF MEMPHIS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST DUAL-
POL THREE HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL INDICATES THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES
HAS FALLEN IN A CONCENTRATED AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WEST
MEMPHIS ARKANSAS...BUT SO FAR NO PROBLEMS HAVE ARISEN. THIS RAIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND MOVE THROUGH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND A STICKY 70 DEGREES. VISIBILITIES ARE
STARTING TO DROP A LITTLE BIT IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVALENT.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL STAY MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
70S AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY...HOT...AND HUMID. LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS
AND 90 PLUS DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 100
DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A MID-LEVEL
50 KT JET STREAK PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
MIXED STORM MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A
LINE WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SBCAPE VALUES WILL
APPROACH 2500 J/KG AND LI`S WILL BE NEAR -10C. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT AN MCS WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN...AN MCS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES SETS UP AND
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT STILL KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN CASE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE RIDGING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT PRODUCING VCSH AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS AT
TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TUP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
03/10-14Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT S/SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 6-8 KTS ON
TUESDAY.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 433 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AS OF 4AM... AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAIN HAS HUNG AROUND NEAR THE
MS RIVER DELTA TO THE SOUTH OF MEMPHIS SINCE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LATEST DUAL-POL THREE HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL INDICATES THAT 2 TO
3 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN A CONCENTRATED AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
WEST MEMPHIS ARKANSAS...BUT SO FAR NO PROBLEMS HAVE ARISEN. THIS
RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND MOVE THROUGH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND A STICKY 70 DEGREES. VISIBILITIES ARE
STARTING TO DROP A LITTLE BIT IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVALENT.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL STAY MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
70S AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY...HOT...AND HUMID. LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS
AND 90 PLUS DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 100
DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A MID-LEVEL
50 KT JET STREAK PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
MIXED STORM MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A
LINE WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SBCAPE VALUES WILL
APPROACH 2500 J/KG AND LI`S WILL BE NEAR -10C. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT AN MCS WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN...AN MCS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES SETS UP AND
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT STILL KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN CASE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE RIDGING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT PRODUCING VCSH AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS AT
TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TUP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN
03/10-14Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT S/SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 6-8 KTS ON
TUESDAY.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1125 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS A BAND OF SHOWERS WHICH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF MIDDLE TN. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT
THE CKV AREA UNTIL 08Z OR SO. OTW...LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH SOME LOWER VSBYS TOWARD 12Z.
AIRMASS LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014/

UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
MIDDLE TN IS IN RESPONSE TO A EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE BAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER INITIALLY AS IT REACHES
WESTERN AREAS OF MIDDLE TN A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING. FURTHER
EAST...IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 12Z. SO FOR THE
FORECAST...SEE NO REASON TO ADJUST THE WEATHER GRIDS. SKY
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL
LOOK OK WITH MINS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF BOTH TN AND KY. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CONVECTION MAY REACH THE CKV AREA
LATER THIS EVENING. OTW...LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH SOME LOWER VSBYS TOWARD 12Z. AIRMASS LOOKS
A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK SO FAR. CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST HAS ALSO KEPT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING FROM WEST TN/WEST
KY...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO
AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW POPS SPREADING EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY RESULTING
IN LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE...BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO RETURN WELL INTO THE 80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
MID STATE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEGLIGIBLE AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S PLATEAU AND
LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY AS A 60 KT 500 MB JET PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ALL SUGGEST THIS WILL DRIVE AN MCS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE KY BORDER
NORTHWARD...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN OUR AREA
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MID STATE IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES BOTH
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1105 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN MN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH
RIDGING IN-BETWEEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN
TROUGHING AND A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN MN UPPER
LOW. THIS DRY SLOT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING HELPED TO CLEAR
SKIES OUT FROM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S / LOW 80S HAS RESULTED IN 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND
NO CIN. THIS INSTABILITY AND LACK OF CAPPING HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF
IN PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TO THE NORTHWEST...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXIST OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN.
925MB TEMPS ARE SIGNIFICANT COLDER TOO UNDER THESE CLOUDS...NOTED BY
10C TEMP AT BIS AT 12Z COMPARED TO 16-20C OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT NEAR ALEXANDRIA
MN.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY ON ITS WEST SIDE LOOKS TO BECOME CENTERED OVER WI.
FIRST...ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND
WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAY HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME STRONGER CELLS TIL ABOUT 5-6 PM WITH
0-6KM SHEAR RUNNING AROUND 30 KT AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT 20-25KT. THEN
AS THAT TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRATUS AND
SHOWERS. COLD FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z.
REGARDING THOSE SHOWERS...MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOUD DEPTHS WOULD
SUPPORT THEM MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD
PICK UP A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...AS 925MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KT.

DAYTIME HEATING PLUS SUBSIDENCE AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WILL HELP CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA
BY MID MORNING. UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES THEN LOOKS
TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WITH
THIS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA DRY. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE WARMER
AIR ADVECT BACK IN WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO MAKE A DECENT JUMP
DURING THE DAY...FROM 10-12C AT 12Z TO AROUND 18C AT 00Z. PLENTY OF
SUN FROM THE MID MORNING ON UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PROGGED TO COME CLOSE TO
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING NUMEROUS SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA SHEARING OUT AND PROVIDING DPVA FORCING TO THIS REGION.
PLENTIFUL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION TOO. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE THE SAME AMOUNT OF
SPREAD HANDLING THIS CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 02.12Z NAM AND 02.09Z SREF STILL SHOW A NORTHERN
TRACK...BASICALLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06-18Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 02.12Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE 02.12Z HIRES-ARW SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.
SINCE THE CONVECTION IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A BOWING
MCS...AIDED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING HIGH CAPE
OUT OF KANSAS...CORFIDI VECTORS AND IN PARTICULAR THE FORWARD
PROPAGATING VECTORS NEED TO BE FOLLOWED. THESE WOULD SUGGEST THE MCS
SHOULD TAKE THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE... LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA/NORTHERN MO AND INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
SEVERE PROBS ARE IN THE DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK. EVEN IF THIS SOUTHERN
ROUTE OCCURS...IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN END OF THE MCS AND/OR SOME
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...RELATIVELY
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTH OF I-90 FOR 06-18Z
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MCS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM HEAD DOWN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH.

MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY
AS THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. THERE
ARE TWO CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH.

1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
PROGGED...DOWN TO 0.5-0.7 INCHES OR 70-90 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALONG
WITH THIS DRY AIR...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE AT THE SURFACE
TO AID IN LIGHT WINDS. MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S
IN SOME OF OUR TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS. AS SUCH...HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST LOWS COLDER...BUT MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.

2. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 02.12Z
NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
HOWEVER...THE 02.12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING...PRODUCING MOSTLY SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR AN
UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. PRIOR TO ITS
ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...PERHAPS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SOME...PRIMARILY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN INCREASING MODEL
AGREEMENT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT HIT 70
ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AT OR BELOW 8C WITH PRECIPITATION
LINGERING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SOME SLACKENING IN THE GRADIENT LATER ON TUE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. MOSTLY SCT/SKC SKIES
INTO TUE AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS.

LATER TUE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
DRIVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ACROSS IA. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN/JET INTO AND ACROSS AN ACCOMPANYING WEST-EAST
RUNNING SFC BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF IOWA...LIKELY STRONG TO SEVERE AND CONTAINING HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...THE FAVORED SCENARIO WILL KEEP THE BULK OF
THE PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90...HAVING JUST A GLANCING BLOW FOR
KRST/KLSE. CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY STAY VFR FOR THE MOST PART. ITS A
SCENARIO THAT BEARS CLOSE ATTENTION THOUGH...AS ANY JOG NORTH WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE HIGHER STORM THREAT NORTH WITH IT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TRIBUTARIES. THE KICKAPOO RIVER REMAINS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR TRIBUTARY FLOODING WITH VIOLA HEADING TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE AND READSTOWN ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD BUT CRESTING. SOLDIERS
GROVE AND GAYS MILLS DOWNSTREAM COULD GET CLOSE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE AND THEREFORE NEED TO BE WATCHED.

SOME OF THE RUNOFF HAS HIT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH LEVELS NOW
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING NORTH OF LA CROSSE. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS WABASHA MAY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...THUS A
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THERE. MEANWHILE...AT WINONA...CONDITIONS DO
NOT LOOK NEARLY AS FAVORABLE TO HIT FLOOD...THEREFORE THE WATCH WAS
CANCELLED THERE EARLIER THIS MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....AJ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 426 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TODAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL RESUME FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH ONGOING DRY WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT TUESDAY...NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE OVERNIGHT SATELLITE
PRODUCTS PICKING UP WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED REPORTS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS. WITH SURFACE FLOW FORECAST TO REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH
THE MORNING, SHOULD SEE DRIZZLE CONTINUING AT LEAST TO MID-
MORNING. SOME ROADS WILL BE WET AND LIKELY SLIPPERY LEADING TO
MORNING RUSH ISSUES. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
LATER TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
70S AND LOWER 80S INLAND -- GENERALLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WON`T CHANGE MUCH FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A WEAKLY DEFINED LONGWAVE TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
WEST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
WARMER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE SE. SO, DESPITE LITTLE CHANGE AT 500
MB, THE WARMER AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO LIFT DAYTIME
HIGHS ACROSS OUR AREA. BY FRIDAY COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S WHILE INLAND SPOTS WILL RETURN BACK INTO THE 80S TO
MID 90S FOR HOTTEST AREAS. DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION FOR COASTAL
DRIZZLE FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AS WELL AS WEAK IMPULSES GO ACROSS
OUR CWA.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND HELPING TO FINALLY FORCE THE
LONGWAVE TROF OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF
ADDITIONAL WARMING MAKING SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
ALMOST ALL SPOTS. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS AS
850 MB LEVELS HIT THE 25-27C LEVEL. SURFACE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE HEAT AWAY FROM
THE COAST. LATEST ECMWF IS BOOSTING HIGHS FOR INLAND SPOTS TO VERY
WARM/HOT LEVELS THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IF THE TREND GOES
MUCH HIGHER. SAN JOSE IS NOW FORECAST TO NEAR 95 DEGREES WHILE
CONCORD IS AROUND 100. CURRENT FORECAST VALUES STILL FALL SHORT OF
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONG
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL LOWER BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT TUESDAY...GOOD STRATUS DECK THIS
MORNING IMPACTING ALMOST ALL TERMINALS...KSJC IS STILL REPORTING
CLEAR. THE PROFILERS AND SODARS INDICATE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER
THIS MORNING AND CIGS ARE HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. GENERAL
BURN OF 18-19Z THIS MORNING. CIGS RETURN TONIGHT...POSSIBLE EARLY
RETURN. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS CLOSE TO 2K FEET WILL IMPACT KSFO THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. CLEARING WILL BE CLOSE TO 18Z. GUSTY ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. LATEST STRATUS MODEL PUTS
CLEARING AT 1847Z...SEEMS LIKELY. 18-19Z PER THE HRRR MODEL AS WELL.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. VFR OCCURS AT KSNS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LESS CERTAIN FOR
KMRY. KMRY MAY ONLY SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR BEFORE CIGS RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:16 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE WEST COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF POINT REYES. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THEN SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 1135 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST...WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTH AS A TROUGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT TO
OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS IT APPROACHES OR ENTERS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA).
LATEST LAPS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIRLY DRY
AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR FA. THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTH FA STILL LOOKS OK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND AN H5 DIFLUENT FLOW MAY
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW
BECAUSE OF LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD
INCREASE FOR THURSDAY BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE INTO A PRE-FRONTAL
OR LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGHING. STILL...THE CHANCE APPEARS LIMITED
BECAUSE OF A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH H85 WESTERLY FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE CHANCE POPS STILL APPEAR
HIGH ENOUGH. BELIEVE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THURSDAY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -6 TO -7.
THE NAM ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING AND CONSIDERABLE
CAPE IN THE HAIL-GROWTH REGION WITH WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR
10500 FEET. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST EXCEPT
THE WARMER GUIDANCE APPEARS BETTER WITH THE TEMPERATURES JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE FRONT OR ITS REMNANTS NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT POPS OF
20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY...AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CU WITH VFR
BASES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH
TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. SO...WILL NOT MENTION TS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF ANY MID/UPPER
CLOUD COVER. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 619 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

08Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave moving across southern
NV towards the four corners region with a plume of subtropical
moisture being pulled into the central Rockies. Surface obs show a
warm and very moist airmass remains in place across the southern
and central plains. A poorly defined stationary front was set up
across southern Neb and southern IA as indicated by the objective
analysis of isotherms and isodrosotherms.

For today models show a good thermodynamic profile for deep moist
convection to develop across the area. Surface based CAPE is progged
to increase to as much as 3000 J/kg with little inhibition initially
over northeast KS. There is also some indication of increasing Q
vector convergence and PVA in advance of the shortwave as it crosses
the central Rockies this afternoon. The main source of uncertainty
in the models is the location of the surface boundary during peak
heating. The NAM/GEM/HRRR/RAP are tending to keep the boundary near
the NEB state line or slightly north of the state line. And the
GFS/ECMWF solutions lift the boundary north very quickly in the
evening. The other complicating factor is the advection of a strong
elevated mixed layer (EML) from the southwest through the evening.
With the majority of solutions suggesting the boundary and low level
focus for convection will be closer to the NEB state line, the
forecast continues to show the higher POPs over far northeast KS.
Have only a slight chance POP from Abilene to Emporia thinking the
capping inversion will advect into these areas by the late afternoon
inhibiting convection. By the late evening, the EML is likely to
bring an end to convection from west to east over the area.

As for severe potential, large hail and damaging winds would be a
good bet with any storms that develop given the 0-6 km shear of 50
to 60 kts and moderate instability. Discrete storms should quickly
become supercells due to the good deep layer shear. However 0-1 km
shear parameters from the NAM and RAP are rather weak (bulk shear
around 10 kts) through the afternoon, and models don`t show these
fields increasing until the low level jet begins increasing through
the evening. By this time, models suggest that convection may have
evolved into an MCS. So while there is a chance for tornados through
the afternoon, am not sure the set up is ideal. The exception would
be if the boundary sets up further south and surface winds are able
to remain backed to the southeast. If this were to occur, it would
most likely be across far northeast KS and still 0-1 km shear
parameters may only be marginally better for tornados. Additionally
heavy rain and flash flooding will pose a hazard as models show PWs
approaching 2 inches along the MO river valley this evening.
Considered a flash flood watch for northeast KS, but with most of
the guidance keeping the axis of heavier rainfall north of the
forecast area decided to hold off.

With models bringing the thermal ridge into central KS today, highs
should be warmer with upper 80s in the far east to middle 90s in
central KS. Previous forecast high looks reasonable and only made
minor adjustments. Tonight think the MCS should move off to the east
shortly after midnight as the EML continues advecting in. As for
lows Wednesday morning, models have trended slower with the Pacific
front sweeping through the area. This would keep a breezy southwest
wind and a mixed boundary layer for much of the forecast area.
Because of this have trended min temps up into the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Wednesday and Wednesday Night...An upper level trough will shift
east across the southern Great Lakes States and OH river valley. a
surface ridge will build southward into eastern KS through the
afternoon hours. Expect dry conditions through most of the period.
An MCS may develop across southeast CO and southwest KS during the
evening hours and track east across south central KS through the
night. This thunderstorm complex may begin to move into the
southwest counties of the CWA by sunrise. Highs will reach the mid
80s across much of the area with upper 80s across the southeast
counties. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday and Thursday night...the northern edge of the MCS may move
east across the southern counties of the CWA during the morning
hours. A minor H5 trough will move east across the state and will
bring a chance for thunderstorms across the remainder of the CWA
during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these thunderstorms
may be strong to severe with the primary hazards being large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Another MCS may develop across
northeast NM and southeast CO. This MCS may track south of the CWA
late Thursday night into Friday morning. Highs will be around 80.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 60s.

Friday through Sunday...there will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms as an upper level trough across the desert southwest
gradually lifts northeast across the central an southern plains. Our
best chance for rain may occur Saturday night through Sunday morning
as the stronger ascent spreads northeast across eastern KS ahead of
the H5 trough. Also, a surface cold front will be pushing southeast
across the state of KS Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. The
front may push southeast of the CWA by Sunday afternoon allowing for
skies to clear.

Highs will be dependent on cloud cover but expect upper 70s to lower
80s for most areas. Sunday may be slightly cooler behind the cold
front with mid to upper 70s expected. Overnight lows will be in the
60s.

Monday...a surface ridge will build southward across KS bringing
dry weather. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

11Z surface obs continued to show a diffusely defined boundary over
southern NEB and northern MO. Meanwhile the latest RAP/NAM/HRRR
continue to suggest the stronger convective development is likely
to be north of the terminals. Because of this, confidence is low
that TS will move into the terminals before 00Z Wed while the
boundary remains to the north. In general there are signs of an
MCS clipping northeast KS between 02Z and 07Z. Will maintain a
VCTS for this period. Think that a strengthening cap after 07Z
should prevent storms from impacting the terminals. VFR conditions
are likely to prevail unless a TS moves in. There would probably
be some temporary IFR VSBY and CIGS with the TS. Some patchy
morning fog is not expected to amount to much and be short lived
as boundary layer mixing increase through the morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

 945 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Updated grids and zones to account for the widespread low stratus
deck that covers most of the forecast area. These low clouds will
likely be persistent for much of the day. Latest RUC model soundings
keep at least a shallow saturated layer at kpah all afternoon.
Visible satellite images show low clouds redeveloping in the kmdh
/kmvn areas...where skies briefly cleared. Lowered max temps a
degree or two in response to the increased cloud cover.
Finally...added a 20 percent pop to the remainder of the forecast
area for this afternoon. Abundant moisture and instability and lack
of any cap should result in isolated showers or storms along any
residual outflow boundaries from last nights activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

A rather tricky scenario at the start of the short term period. Even
with an E-W quasi-stationary frontal boundary just north of our CWA
today, not sure if we will see any convection due to other limiting
factors. Models show no discernible ripples of energy in the mid
levels and time heights/soundings only show decent moisture aob
800mb, ie no deep layer moisture. In addition models show minor H5
height rises today and a weak mid level cap. However, to better
blend with the neighbors and just in case a few storms/showers are
able to develop just south of the front, decided to show small pops
over the northern half of the CWA this afternoon.

Tonight flow aloft pushes a surface low east southeast out of the
central plains toward the region. This will tend to lift the
aforementioned frontal boundary back to the north as a warm front,
but by 12Z Wednesday it may be located near our southwest Indiana
counties, so will keep small chc pops there.

Precipitation chances increase Wednesday and Wednesday night as the
surface low tracks just north of our area and pulls a frontal
boundary toward and into our CWA. A few storms may become severe
Wednesday with large hail and damaging winds being the primary
threats.

On Thursday the frontal boundary continues to push southward
allowing drier high pressure to overspread the region from the
north, therefore will probably see precipitation chances only over
the southern third of our CWA Thursday morning and only over our far
southwest counties Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night as a system develops over the southern plains,
models begin to lift the frontal boundary back to the northeast
and develop overrunning precipitation over the southwest half of
our CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.
The operational models and ensembles are in fair agreement with
systems and timing but they do have some positioning issues.

The models are in good agreement with an MCS or remnants of an
overnight MCS coming into SEMO Friday morning. This is mainly in
response to a ripple in the 500mb flow...since the front is expected
to be stalled well south of the region. The 00z GFS and ECMWF are in
best agreement with the main effect to remain over SEMO with some
residual convection spreading east over the remainder of the area.
The SREF and SREF hold this activity farther north and keep it a bit
more intense. Typically these overnight MCS`s start to decay as the
sun rises which reflect the GFS/ECMWF solution better. So weighted
that solution more than the other models with this system. Saturday
into Saturday night a warm front lifts north of the area bringing an
increase in rain chances. This also place us in the warm sector
ahead of an approaching cold front. This front pushes south of the
area by 12z Monday which should be the start of a cooler and drier
period early next week.

Adjusted temps and dewpoints down a bit next week after the cold
front passage should it actually occur.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 635 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Abundant low level moisture trapped below the nocturnal inversion
should keep IFR/MVFR cigs at all sites through 14-16Z, then VFR. VCTS
possible at KEVV/KOWB from 18-00Z. Winds will continue out of the
south to southwest aob 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MY
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 1013 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MOVING TO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING OVER THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALREADY HAVE SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. PER HRRR GUIDANCE...IT
LOOKS AS IF THESE SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST TO
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT HAD ANY CG LIGHTNING
YET. AS THESE SHOWERS ADVANCE EAST...THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING DOWNSTREAM AFTER THE NOON HOUR AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 80S.

BEHIND THIS INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL BEFORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POP MID-LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THIS CONVECTION WOULD MOVE
EAST THROUGH EVENING BUT LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING OF THE
SUN.

BASED ON 12Z KIAD RAOB...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING UP WITH A PW
VALUE AROUND 1.4 IN. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING SUGGESTS SOME
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL BUT STILL ON THE WEAK SIDE.
THEREFORE...AM NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WX. SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED ABOVE COULD HOWEVER BE LOCALLY STRONG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE ACTUAL FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY DISSIPATES AT
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THEREFORE...PUT IN SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
OUT WEST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT
HUMID WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S.

LULL IN PRECIP WEDNESDAY WITH WLY FLOW MIXING DOWN 14-16C 850MB
TEMPS FOR MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA (UPR 80S SW WHERE HIGHEST
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED). THIS WILL PRECONDITION THE AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE XTND PD WL START OFF W/ A BANG AS A FAST MOVG SHORT WV TRACKS
INTO THE MID ATLC. BUFKIT HODOGRAPH PROFILES SHOW A LARGE AMT OF
LO LVL SHEAR...BUT LTL-TO-NO CAPE. THE FAR WRN SXN OF THE FCST
AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLT RISK. THIS WL NEED TO BE WATCHED
DURG DAY/EVE WED - IF LTNG/STRONG UPDRAFTS COME W/ THESE SHOWERS
THE RDR OPERATORS WED EVE WL HV TO BE ON ALERT FOR SVR WX.

THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE CLRG THE CST BY THU MRNG. DECENT PRES GRAD
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA DURG THE DAY. XPCT THU AFTN WL
BE BRZY W/ HIGHS IN THE U70S/L80S. IT`S INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE RECORD HIGHS FOR ERLY JUN AT IAD ARE ONLY A90 (XCPT 6/1 WHICH
REACHED 95 IN 2011) BUT AT DCA IN 1925 BTWN 6/2 AND 6/6 THE HIGH
TEMPS WERE 97..99..99..100..AND 97! ALL STILL DAILY RECORDS. 1925
ALSO HOLDS 3 RECORDS FOR BALT DURG THAT TIMEFRAME (INCLUDING 101
ON 6/5/25). NO A/C...NO SPL CLOTHES...THAT MUST`VE BEEN VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE TO DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS.

THE HIGH SHOULD BE SETTLING OVR THE MID ATLC THU NGT..BRINGING
SOME PLSNT WX TO THE AREA THRU THE WKND. HIGHS IN LM80S...LOWS IN
THE U50S RISING INTO THE LM60S BY MON MRNG.

THE NEXT PCPN CHC LOOKS TO BE MON AS A CD FNT APRCHS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE HUBS IN THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...16-18Z IAD AND 17-19Z DCA/BWI. BY THAT
TIME...THERE MAY BE ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. EXPECT A LULL AFTER
THIS ACTIVITY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THEN IT/S POSSIBLE ISO TO SCT
TSRA DEVELOPS BY EARLY EVENING.

WEST FLOW OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT BEHIND WEAK COLD
FRONT. LULL IN STORMS WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS SOME MORNING FOG. WED
NGT LOW PRESSURE WL BE PUSHING INTO THE MID ATLC...LKLY BRINGING
RA AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. STORMS THAT MOVE OVR TERMINAL SITES WL
LKLY CAUSE DIMINISHES CIGS/VSBYS. THERE WL BE A LOT OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE LO LVLS WED NGT AS WELL. BRZY CONDS THU THEN PLSNT WX
THU NGT THRU SAT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVR THE MID ALTC.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY. EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING.

TSTMS WL BE PSBL OVR THE WATERS WED NGT. HIGH PRES WL BE BLDG INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO WINDS GUSTS INTO THE 20+ KT
RANGE AND THE NEED FOR AN SCA. THE HIGH WL BUILD OVR THE WATERS
THU NGT LASTING THRU THE WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
BPP/BAJ/WOODY!








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 728 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED VORT
MAX OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/CENTRAL UPPER MI FROM LOW PRES OVER ONTARIO NE
OF THE LAKE. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SCT SHRA ALONG THIS
TROUGH/FRONT AND THERE WAS EVEN AN ISOLD TSRA EARLIER THIS MORNING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE MUCAPES WERE STILL NEAR 500 J/KG.

TODAY...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY MORE TSRA ALONG THE FRONT THIS
MORNING AS THE NCEP RAP MODEL SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY HAS MOVED EAST.
MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE
TIED TO MID-LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN THE
COMMA HEAD OF THE VORT MAX. EXPECT THE BEST CHC OF SHRA TO BE OVER
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO THE NE FCST
LATE THIS MORNING WITH MVMT OF THE VORT MAX AND ITS ASSOC COMMA
HEAD. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT REPORTED AT THE KIWD AWOS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS NEAR
25 KT THROUGH MIXED LAYER AND THE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NE FCST AREA FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS. GOOD
MID-LVL DRYING/CONFLUENCE AND Q-VECT DIVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
VORT MAX SHOULD PUT AN END TO MOST SHRA ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MODELS SNDGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 800 MB
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SCNTRL...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY WHERE A LONGER PD OF SUNSHINE COULD
PUSH READINGS INTO THE LOWER TO EVEN MID 70S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ON MIN TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S...COOLEST OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR WHERE PWATS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND READINGS
COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND STRADDLING THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND UP TO HUDSON BAY. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
ROTATING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND
LOCATIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM A PARENT HIGH ON THE SOUTHWEST
SHORELINE OF HUDSON BAY WILL STRETCH SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST) WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE (50S TO
MID 60S...COOLEST EAST) WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PRODUCES LIGHT WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS WITH
RESPECT TO NORMAL AND HAVE LOWS OF LOW-MID 40S. WITH THE DRIER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT COULD ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. CURRENT THINKING IS RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS ARE STRONGER...BUT DRYING FROM
RECENT RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND NEAR 25
PERCENT AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL ALSO
BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT GROWTH IF FIRES OCCURRED. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINTS OF A
WEAK AND ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE DRY
RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BUT WILL
SHOW SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT ON THIS
IDEA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.

UPPER RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING EAST ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING. A COUPLE MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKING AT WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED
(GENERALLY WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MN ARROWHEAD)...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON PRECIP OCCURRING ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND
DRIER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...WHICH KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. WHERE THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IS WITH THE COUPLE
SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THAT OCCURS...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM A PARENT LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WILL USE THAT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THEN TREND TOWARDS DRY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING
SOME SCT LIGHT -SHRA TO THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS
AT KCMX WILL RAISE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL MIXING AND DRYING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KIWD AND KSAW WILL RAISE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. WNW WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY WITH INCREASED MIXING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR KCMX FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH INCREASED MIXING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WNW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND COULD REACH NEAR 30 KTS OVER SCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO SAT AS SFC HIGH PRES GENERALLY
DOMINATES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 959 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES OF REAL SIGNIFICANCE WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PREVALENT THIS MORNING
AND THAT RAISES SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING
AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND SO
THAT UNCERTAINTY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MAKE US ALTER OUR IDEAS OF
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT ALSO HAS SUPPORT
FROM RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS...INCLUDING THE 12 UTC HRRR
WHICH TAKES THE WEAK/HIGH-BASED SHOWERS GROWING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MT AT 1545 UTC AND INTENSIFIES THEM INTO SURFACE-BASED STORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THAT SAME HRRR RUN ALSO
HAS OTHER SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WHOLE AREA BETWEEN 19 AND
22 UTC...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF BILLINGS. IT IS IN THAT
SAME AREA FROM MUSSELSHELL OVER TOWARD NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTIES A
BIT STRONGER SHEAR IS SHOWN BY THE 09 UTC SREF THAN EARLIER...WITH
A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN CALIBRATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES THERE.
WE ARE CONTINUING WITH THE IDEA THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE AREA...BUT IT/S POSSIBLE A
POCKET OR TWO OF GREATER CONCENTRATION WITH THAT THREAT WILL OCCUR
WHERE HEATING IS STRONGER AND/OR EFFECTIVE SHEAR RUNS CLOSER TO 30
KT. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS OVER THE
BILLINGS AREA LATE LAST EVENING CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND SUSTAIN
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT OF A LOW- LEVEL JET ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SATELLITE AND RADAR ALSO SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE THIS JET IS A BIT STRONGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS CARTER COUNTY BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA WILL EJECT A FEW DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING/SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY. A RETURN SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES. CAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG ACROSS THE WEST TO
1500J/KG ACROSS THE EAST COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONE INHIBITOR IS THAT WIND SHEAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE TODAY. THE HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BY NOON TODAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS
POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE POWDER
RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THAT AREA
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE NEARING AN
INCH.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND A COOL FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE LESS TOMORROW SO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS
ADVERTISING A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO FULL GREENUP AND RECENT RAINFALL.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER REGIME IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LIMITING SOLAR HEATING.
UPSLOPE ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
BEST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA SWINGS THROUGH. SATURDAY STAYS COOL AS
THE UPSLOPE REGIME REMAINS AT THE LOWER LEVELS BUT AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DRY OUT THE WESTERN ZONES.

PATTERN BECOMES DOMINATED BY WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT BETTER MIXING AND HAVE PASSING DISTURBANCES PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIME LATER ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY A DEEPER MORE DYNAMIC WAVE WILL APPROACH BUT TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. STORMS WILL BE MOST INTENSE EAST OF BILLINGS AND SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SOUTHEAST MONTANA THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD SEE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50KT. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 055/078 054/073 049/063 045/067 048/078 051/078
    4/T 43/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 075 043/075 042/071 042/063 040/066 043/077 044/077
    4/T 43/T    23/T    34/T    43/T    32/T    22/T
HDN 079 052/078 051/075 048/066 046/069 047/079 050/080
    4/T 43/T    23/T    33/T    44/T    32/T    22/T
MLS 077 055/079 055/075 048/065 047/068 047/078 051/079
    4/T 43/T    32/T    33/T    33/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 071 052/076 052/075 049/062 048/067 045/077 049/079
    4/T 43/T    32/T    34/T    55/T    32/T    22/T
BHK 073 052/076 051/073 047/061 045/064 044/072 048/075
    4/T 44/T    32/T    44/T    33/T    32/T    22/T
SHR 077 048/076 046/072 044/063 043/063 042/075 046/076
    4/T 43/T    23/T    34/T    55/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1050 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX OUTBREAK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON-EVE...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. ALL TSTM ACTIVITY
HAS MOVED E AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE
HWY 6 CORRIDOR AND HEADED FOR THE KS-NEB BORDER. UNSURE HOW FAR S
THAT IT SAGS BUT IT CURRENTLY HAS PRETTY GOOD MOMENTUM. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED...RESULTING
IN VERY LARGE CURVATURE TO LOCAL HODOGRAPHS.

WE HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE SPC AND PLAN TO HAVE THE SRN END OF
THE MDT RISK EXTENDED BACK SWD TO NEAR HWY 6. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER S AS THE SFC LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK E ALONG THE
KS-NEB BORDER. THIS COMPLICATES THE FCST AND LOCATION OF THE
DRYLINE-OUTFLOW TRIPLE PT.

THE 13Z HRRR LOOKS HOW WE THINK THINGS WILL EVOLVE...VERY
THREATENING. 2 TO 4 CLASSIC SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER S-CNTRL
NEB 4-5 PM...THEN POSSIBLE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT 6-8 PM.

AS THE NIGHT SHIFT MENTIONED...EVERYONE WILL NOT GOING SEE SEVERE
WX TODAY. IN FACT...WE MAY ONLY SEE A SMALL NUMBER OF STORMS
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE THE HIGH-END
SEVERE WX WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING.

09Z SREF SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SIG TOR PARAMETER WILL ALSO BE EXCESSIVE.

THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR IN SUCH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN STRONG MESOCYCLONES. THUS THE REASON FOR THE ENHANCED
RISK OF TORNADOES AND EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD CERTAINLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NORTHEAST OF A
GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE. LESS FORCING AND A GREATER
CAP SHOULD DECREASE THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS YOU HEAD SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE EVEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD STORMS
FORM...JUST THE LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING THE STORMS TO INITIATE IS
LOWER OVER THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGH END SEVERE WORDING OF DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES ...HAIL OF BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH.

THE BIG QUESTIONS RELATED TO HOW SEVERE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT TODAY
CENTER AROUND WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP...AND HOW ONGOING
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE MORE VOLATILE AFTERNOON STORMS. THE 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND
00Z ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LATE AFTERNOON
WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND ORD TO FULLERTON
OR MAYBE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE WRF
MODELS AND EARLY RUNS OF THE RUC PLACE THE WARM FRONT EVEN FURTHER
NORTH TO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE. THE CONVECTIVE QPF IS
VERY SIMILAR AMONG THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC (MODELS...NAM... GFS...
ECMWF) WHICH FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTHEAST
OF THAT EARLIER MENTIONED GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE.
SOME WRF MODELS KEEP OUR ENTIRE CWA DRY WITH ALL THE CONVECTION
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE WRF MODELS INDICATE AND THUS COULD VERY EASILY
SEE THE WARM FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS MORNING
CONVECTION AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
MODELS.

WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TODAY BASED ON
ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
MID MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS PROBABLE COULD KEEP THE
WARM FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE MODELS
THAT KEEP THE WARM FRONT OVER OUR NORTHER FORECAST AREA AND MAY ALSO
LEAVE BEHIND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BECOME ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
OVER THE SANDHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS OF 4 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH
AS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6. THESE SOUTHERN STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A CAP AND LESS
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE. THE 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE BY EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 75
KTS RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OF 25 TO 30 KTS IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-
3000 J/KG ALSO SEEM REASONABLE. THE FORCING WILL BE THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDEAL TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO BE WEATHER AWARE
TODAY AND KEEP IN TUNE WITH THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS YOU
GO ABOUT YOUR DAY.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS LEADING TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
TIME. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY EARLIER THAN THAT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRICKY PART
IS GETTING THE TIMING DOWN ON THE WAVES. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE FEW DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. A SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
MODEL DIFFERENCE COMES FOR MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING AN UPPER WAVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE WAVE THAN THE
GFS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KGRI
TERMINAL AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT IT AS
VCTS UNTIL THE TIMING IS BETTER.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 807 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 807 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THE TSTM CLUSTER OVER HOWARD COUNTY IS LOOKING WEAKER THAN AN HR
AGO...WITH 50 DBZ BARELY UP TO 20K FT. RADAR IS SHOWING A
SOUTHWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS BUFFALO AND HALL
COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING S OF I-80 WHERE SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECT INSOLATION/HEATING WILL OCCUR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THRU THE DAY.

PLEASE CONT TO FOLLOW THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...THEIR PUBLIC SVR WX
OUTLOOK AND ANY MESO DISCUSSIONS...AS WELL AS AFD AND HWO UPDATES
AND WATCHES/WARNINGS FROM THIS OFFICE.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WX
OPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY 4PM-9PM.

PUBLIC: BE WEATHER-AWARE TODAY. HAVE A WAY TO OBTAIN WEATHER INFO
THRU THE DAY. KNOW WHERE YOU WILL GO FOR SHELTER IF THREATENING
WEATHER OCCURS AND YOU ARE NOT HOME. IF TRAVELLING...DO NOT USE
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES FOR SHELTER!

EQUIPMENT: WE HAVE INSTALLED A RADAR UPGRADE THAT WILL GIVE
INTERRUPT OUR NORMAL VOLUME SCANS AND GIVE US A NEW 0.5 DEG SLICE
MID-WAY THRU. THIS WILL HELP WITH SEVERE WX DETECTION.

AS IT STANDS NOW...WE WILL BE WARNING FOR HAIL ON 50 DBZ CORES TO
33K FT ESPECIALLY IF 60 DBZ EXCEEDS 22K AND 65 DBZ EXCEEDS 13K.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD CERTAINLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NORTHEAST OF A
GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE. LESS FORCING AND A GREATER
CAP SHOULD DECREASE THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS YOU HEAD SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE EVEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD STORMS
FORM...JUST THE LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING THE STORMS TO INITIATE IS
LOWER OVER THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGH END SEVERE WORDING OF DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES ...HAIL OF BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH.

THE BIG QUESTIONS RELATED TO HOW SEVERE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT TODAY
CENTER AROUND WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP...AND HOW ONGOING
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE MORE VOLATILE AFTERNOON STORMS. THE 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND
00Z ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LATE AFTERNOON
WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND ORD TO FULLERTON
OR MAYBE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE WRF
MODELS AND EARLY RUNS OF THE RUC PLACE THE WARM FRONT EVEN FURTHER
NORTH TO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE. THE CONVECTIVE QPF IS
VERY SIMILAR AMONG THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC (MODELS...NAM... GFS...
ECMWF) WHICH FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTHEAST
OF THAT EARLIER MENTIONED GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE.
SOME WRF MODELS KEEP OUR ENTIRE CWA DRY WITH ALL THE CONVECTION
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE WRF MODELS INDICATE AND THUS COULD VERY EASILY
SEE THE WARM FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS MORNING
CONVECTION AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
MODELS.

WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TODAY BASED ON
ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
MID MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS PROBABLE COULD KEEP THE
WARM FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE MODELS
THAT KEEP THE WARM FRONT OVER OUR NORTHER FORECAST AREA AND MAY ALSO
LEAVE BEHIND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BECOME ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
OVER THE SANDHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS OF 4 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH
AS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6. THESE SOUTHERN STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A CAP AND LESS
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE. THE 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE BY EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 75
KTS RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OF 25 TO 30 KTS IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-
3000 J/KG ALSO SEEM REASONABLE. THE FORCING WILL BE THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDEAL TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO BE WEATHER AWARE
TODAY AND KEEP IN TUNE WITH THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS YOU
GO ABOUT YOUR DAY.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS LEADING TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
TIME. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY EARLIER THAN THAT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRICKY PART
IS GETTING THE TIMING DOWN ON THE WAVES. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE FEW DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. A SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
MODEL DIFFERENCE COMES FOR MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING AN UPPER WAVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE WAVE THAN THE
GFS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KGRI
TERMINAL AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT IT AS
VCTS UNTIL THE TIMING IS BETTER.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 626 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD CERTAINLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NORTHEAST OF A
GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE. LESS FORCING AND A GREATER
CAP SHOULD DECREASE THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS YOU HEAD SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE EVEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD STORMS
FORM...JUST THE LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING THE STORMS TO INITIATE IS
LOWER OVER THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGH END SEVERE WORDING OF DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES ...HAIL OF BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH.

THE BIG QUESTIONS RELATED TO HOW SEVERE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT TODAY
CENTER AROUND WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP...AND HOW ONGOING
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE MORE VOLATILE AFTERNOON STORMS. THE 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND
00Z ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LATE AFTERNOON
WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND ORD TO FULLERTON
OR MAYBE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE WRF
MODELS AND EARLY RUNS OF THE RUC PLACE THE WARM FRONT EVEN FURTHER
NORTH TO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE. THE CONVECTIVE QPF IS
VERY SIMILAR AMONG THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC (MODELS...NAM... GFS...
ECMWF) WHICH FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTHEAST
OF THAT EARLIER MENTIONED GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE.
SOME WRF MODELS KEEP OUR ENTIRE CWA DRY WITH ALL THE CONVECTION
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE WRF MODELS INDICATE AND THUS COULD VERY EASILY
SEE THE WARM FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS MORNING
CONVECTION AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
MODELS.

WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TODAY BASED ON
ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
MID MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS PROBABLE COULD KEEP THE
WARM FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE MODELS
THAT KEEP THE WARM FRONT OVER OUR NORTHER FORECAST AREA AND MAY ALSO
LEAVE BEHIND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BECOME ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
OVER THE SANDHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS OF 4 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH
AS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6. THESE SOUTHERN STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A CAP AND LESS
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE. THE 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE BY EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 75
KTS RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OF 25 TO 30 KTS IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-
3000 J/KG ALSO SEEM REASONABLE. THE FORCING WILL BE THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDEAL TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO BE WEATHER AWARE
TODAY AND KEEP IN TUNE WITH THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS YOU
GO ABOUT YOUR DAY.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS LEADING TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
TIME. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY EARLIER THAN THAT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRICKY PART
IS GETTING THE TIMING DOWN ON THE WAVES. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE FEW DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. A SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
MODEL DIFFERENCE COMES FOR MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING AN UPPER WAVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE WAVE THAN THE
GFS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KGRI
TERMINAL AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT IT AS
VCTS UNTIL THE TIMING IS BETTER.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 600 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AND MOST AREAS THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR COULD OCCUR NEAR THE EXTREME EASTERN
BORDER INCLUDING KCAO AROUND 13Z TO 15Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP MOST AREAS THEN INCREASE STEADILY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WINDS WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 25 KT TO 30
KT AND AS HIGH AS 40 KT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. NEAR THE EASTERN
BORDER...SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
FEW CONVECTIVE BUILD UPS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND HIGHLANDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO AN
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
TEXAS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD VALUES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE
LATER TODAY...WITH BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST...THEN
REAPPEAR WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BACKS DOWN A BIT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RESULTING IN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SHIFT/INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND LIKELY TEMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN 1-3 DEGREES FROM
UPWARD POTENTIAL. THAT SAID...WE`RE STILL FORECASTING RECORD OR
NEAR-RECORD HIGHS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA TODAY. THE RECORD
HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS EXTEND INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...SO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS GETTING JUICY. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN QPF FROM BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 05Z
HRRR...WITH THE DRYLINE BEING THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION. THE 00Z
NAM12 AND 05Z HRRR SHOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE...BUT WITH A CAPPING
INVERSION. THE NAM ALMOST COMPLETELY ERODES THE CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG THE DRYLINE BETWEEN 21-00Z. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING OUT EAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG
WINDS GUSTS GIVEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES. A FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE 00Z GFS NEAR SANTA ROSA
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH AN INVERTED-V LOOK BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE BEST CLOSER TO THE
TEXAS BORDER...BUT THEN EXPAND WEST TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO ANOTHER BACKDOOR PUSH.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH THE DRYLINE SLOSHING
BACK-AND-FORTH...THEN ANOTHER BACKDOOR PUSH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. VERY WARM AND
UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AS THE FOCUS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. VERY DRY AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY WEST...WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL DETERMINE RED FLAG COVERAGE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTER BARELY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DESPITE THE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO...COURTESY OF TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
COAST...SATELLITE PW PRODUCTS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY
ATMOSPHERE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MAINTAINING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WITH AN EXTREME WEST TO EAST CONTRAST...RH RECOVERS WILL BE POOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WESTERN ZONES BUT GOOD ACROSS THE EAST.

A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL INCREASE
GRADIENTS ENOUGH TODAY FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOST AREAS AND ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST.
ACROSS THE WEST...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT SUPER HAINES CONDITIONS THERE INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT THERE. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS WITH MOST AREAS
AFFECTED EXCEPT THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE POOR WEST AND
MOSTLY FAIR EAST WITH GOOD VALUES TO LIMITED TO THE EXTREME EASTERN
PLAINS.

THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ON WEDNESDAY USHERING IN MORE DRY AIR BUT
WINDS ALOFT DECREASE A BIT AND EVEN WITH CONTINUED DEEP MIXING IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOST
LOCATIONS. STILL VERY WARM AND DRY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY AFTERNOON. SUPER
HAINES CONDITIONS AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
WEST BY AFTERNOON. RH TO BE SINGLE DIGIT MOST AREAS EXCEPT EXTREME
EAST. HELD OFF ON A RED FLAG WATCH BUT CERTAINLY WEDNESDAY NEEDS TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

MORE OF THE SAME THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND THE
PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS...VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WEST AND MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
BACK DOOR FRONT THUS LIMITING MOISTURE INCREASES EAST. ONCE
AGAIN...ONLY WINDS WILL LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
ALL OTHER INGREDIENTS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE.

THE TROUGH FINALLY MAKES SUFFICIENT PROGRESS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
TO INITIATE VERY MODEST COOLING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A MORE VIGOROUS BACK DOOR FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EAST WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN AND GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. STILL VERY DRY WEST HOWEVER.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 1047 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM,
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THEN A DRYING
TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1047 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AS WELL. DUE TO THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS ACROSS VERMONT TO MORE SUNSHINE
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS DUE TO
THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS. RUC13 MODEL SHOWING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TIL
AROUND 20Z. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA AS PWATS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 729 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO BLEND IN
OBSERVED TEMP/WIND/SKY. PRECIP FORECAST TRACKING WELL. EARLIER
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATED
SOMEWHAT. NEW LIGHT SHOWERS ENTERED ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY COVERED BY
CHC POPS...AND RADAR DEPICTING MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND OVER WESTERN
NY...ON TIME TO GET INTO ST LAWRENCE COUNTY MID DAY.

LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAY TRANSLATING WEST TO EAST ALONG PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. NARROW BAND OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE, AND EXPECT A CORRESPONDINGLY NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN
INCREASING NEAR MIDDAY AS MORE ORGANIZED STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST. POPS GENERALLY TREND WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH AREA OF HIGHER
POPS FOR ANY GIVEN AREA MORE BROAD THAN ACTUAL PRECIP COVERAGE DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. MODEL RADAR BY 21Z SPREAD BETWEEN N/S
LINE PRECIP OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO AS FAR EAST AS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH DECENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 150-200 PERCENT NORMAL AT
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES, WARM CLOUD DEPTH UP TO 10K FT, AND TALL SKINNY
CAPE CHARACTERISTICS. CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KTS AT TIMES
DURING DAY INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING. FOR THE MOST PART THE
ENTIRE LINE SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG...BUT INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD
TRAIN OVER SAME AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS...BUT
DONT EXPECT FLOOD THREAT WITH OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LINE.

TEMPS...ANOTHER WARM DAY ESPECIALLY FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST
WHERE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AREA
WILL HAVE TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE THE PRECIP ARRIVES. 850 AND 925
TEMPS IN THOSE AREAS SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S.
NORTHERN NY WILL BE UNDER MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND SO TEMPS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS. LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EASTERN VERMONT
THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT AND THEN POPS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST
DURING EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COLD POOL ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS IN HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY...THEN CHANCE
POPS MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY WITH LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH MOIST AIR AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH/LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
40S/50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S. QUIETER AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN. IT`S LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER GORGEOUS
WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. IN FACT...MEAN 925MB TEMPS NEAR +20C SUNDAY SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD 80S WITH THE VALLEY LOCALES POSSIBLY
PUSHING NEAR 90! UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. GOOD BET FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
SHOULD SEE TSRA ACTIVITY SPARK UP AROUND 15-16Z AT KMSS...PROGRESSING
EASTWARD TO KSLK 17-18Z...KPBG/KBTV 20-21Z AND KRUT/KMPV 22-23Z.
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS AT EACH SITE BEFORE ENDING AND
TRENDING TOWARDS SKC AFTER 07-08Z AT KMSS/KSLK...AND SCT ELSEWHERE.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR BR AT KSLK AFTER 08Z...BUT ENOUGH WIND IN THE LOW
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 00Z SAT...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 419 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ON THE LAKE
TODAY, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE
STRONGER TODAY AS SURFACE FRONT DRAWS NEAR...AND EXPECT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...AND LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. RADAR BASED WINDS SHOWING WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE IN 25-30KT RANGE WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
FACTOR ON THE LAKE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1047 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE ASOS (AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM) AT SARANAC LAKE NEW YORK (KSLK) IS MISSING MOST OF ITS
DATA AT THIS TIME. THIS IS DUE TO ELECTRICAL WORK BEING DONE BY
THE FAA AT THIS SITE. THS ASOS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK TO FULL
SERVICE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CEILOMETER AT THE AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS)
AT THE RUTLAND (KRUT)-SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN
OUT OF SERVICE SINCE MAY 29TH AT 0215Z. THUS...THIS SITE IS NOT
REPORTING SKY COVER AT THIS TIME. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BURLINGTON HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE FAA AOCC THAT PARTS ARE ON ORDER
TO FIX THE CEILOMETER. THERE IS NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THE CEILOMETER WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WGH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 1025 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...THEN
DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS HV ENTERED INTO WRN ZONES AT THIS TIME AND WITH SLOWER
MVMNT EXPECTED HV DELAYED POPS THRU CWA BY AN HR OR TWO WITH LKLY
POPS NOT MVG INTO I-81 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO 17Z. QUESTION WL BE HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WL BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTN WITH BREAKS
IN CLDS ACRS ERN ZONE WHILE WEST RMNS SOCKED IN. WITH TEMPS
ALREADY INTO THE 80S ACRS NRN ZONES AND DWPTS IN THE MID-60S
APPEARS THAT PLENTY OF CAPE EXISTS ALREADY TO SPARK CONVECTION.

12Z RAOB FM KBUF IS EXTREMELY MOIST WITH PW VALUES OF 1.52 INCHES
AND WARM CLD DEPTHS WELL OVR 10KFT. EXPECT ANONYMOUSLY HIGH PW
VALUES PER TPW IMAGE TO MV INTO CWA DRG THE AFTN HRS AND WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND SMALL CORFIDI VECTORS INTENSE HVY RAINFALL
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR TDA.

LATEST HRRR BRINGS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION INTO WRN CWA BY 16Z
THEN MVG EWRD WITH TIME BISECTING CWA BY 18Z AND THEN EAST FM
THERE. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GTLKS REGION
WILL SWING A PRE-FRONTAL TROF INTO CNY/NEPA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
SYSTEM DYNAMICS WILL BE AT PLAY ALONG THE LEADING TROF TODAY.
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS ABOUT TO ENTER WRN NY AND WRN PA EARLY
THIS MORNING. MODELS...ESPECIALLY SMALLER SCALE MESO MODELS...HAVE
VERY GOOD TIMING TRENDS...AND SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z TODAY. THIS WAS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA TODAY...AS
MID LVL CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIMIT THE NECESSARY SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT ALLOW TIME FOR HEATING IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MARGINAL AND SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. OF
SOMEWHAT GREATER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIAL...AS PWAT
VALUES ARE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND WIND FIELDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
ALOFT. MBE VECTORS ARE ALSO SMALL...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE LESS
THAN IDEAL AND OVERALL SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...SO NOT WORRIED
ABOUT FLASH FLOODING...BUT ANY HEALTHY THUNDERSTORM COULD RAIN
HARD FOR A WHILE. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...WITH
THE IDEA THAT STORMS IN URBAN AREAS WILL GARNER THE MOST
ATTENTION.

TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL LIKELY ABLE TO
REACH THE LOW 80S. NOT EXPECTING A SMOOTH TEMPERATURE CURVE TODAY
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAXES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ROCKET AFTER THE RAIN AND CLOUDS PASS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME NOMINAL POPS FOR
ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT IN THIS
TYPE PATTERN THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OFTEN NOT THE ACTIVE
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH MODEL RH FIELDS AND INDIVIDUAL SOUNDING
FORECASTS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DRYING. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS
TO SPEED UP THE DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT WITH A RAIN FREE DAY EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

THEN...MAIN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE VARYING
DIFFERENCES IN THESE SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO FOCUS MOST OF
ANY RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...HOWEVER THE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS LENDS ITSELF TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW A GRADIENT OF MID-RANGE POPS ACROSS OUR AREA...AS THE NAM
AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A FAIRLY DAMP PERIOD LATER WEDS NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTH AND SUGGESTS THE
SYR-UCA MIGHT EVEN MISS OUT COMPLETELY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
RULE ANYTHING OUT...AND TOO MUCH TO ALSO GO GANGBUSTERS WITH HIGH
POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE`S MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST EVERYWHERE...SO WAITING ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR SO TO
REFINE WHO GETS DRENCHED IS PRUDENT ATTM.

WE SHOULD GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS TO
TAKE HOLD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL 2M TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD INTO THE RGN ON
FRI...MOVG OFF THE CST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND FOR CNTRL
NY AND NE PA. APRCHNG WMFNT MAY BRING A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA ACRS WRN
ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN. JUST SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG FCST
BASED ON LATEST MDL TRENDS/HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MRNG WITH XCPTN OF ELM WHERE MVFR
BR IS OCCURRING BUT WILL IMPRV TO VFR BY 14Z. OTRW...XPCT A BKN
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO CROSS THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRE-FNTL TROF. ATTM WE ARE TIMING THE BEST CHCS FOR
SHRA/TSRA FROM 16-18Z WRN SITES ( SYR/ITH/ELM) TO 18-20Z ACRS THE
EAST (AVP). THERE IS POTNL ISOLD TSRA LATE TDA AS A CDFNT APRCHS BUT
FOR NOW WE JUST SELECTED THE MOST FVRBL TIME FRAME FOR PCPN. ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT/DSPT BY THIS EVNG WHEN WE XPCT
VFR. LATER TNGT A FEW MDL PROFILES SHOW DVLPMNT OF STRATUS LAYER
BEHIND THE CDFNT ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER (ITH/ELM/BGM). NOT
CONFIDENT OF THIS BUT DID INDICATE A SCT025 LAYER ARND THIS TIME.
WINDS BECMG SWLY TDA 10-15 KTS...AND W TO NW 5 KTS OR SO TNGT.


OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS.

WED...VFR.

THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.

FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 622 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN RETREATING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ENTERING INTO
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EVIDENT
ON KRLX AND SURROUNDING WSR-88D. HAVE TIMED BAND INTO KCRW BY
12Z..AND EXITING EASTERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE 18Z.  THIS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN LINE WITH LATEST RUC FORECAST TRENDS.
LIKE THE IDEA OF ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWER AND STORMS FORMING UP ACROSS
SE OH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS UNSTABLE AND MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLD POPS FOR BETTER
PART OF TODAY DESPITE THE LULL.  FOR TEMPS...STAY WITH BIAS
CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED TEMPS.
NOTED THAT THERE ARE ONLY MINIMAL DIFFERENCES WITH VARIOUS TEMP
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED MORNING
MOVES NEWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WED.  THE TIMING OF THE
WARM ADVECTION AND THETA E FEED IS MIDDAY...BEYOND THE FAVORED EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION...SO DO EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO
MUCH.

A VIGOROUS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH DRIVES A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WED NT...WHICH IN TURN DRAGS A
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THU MORNING.  THERE IS MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES...BUT EVEN THE FASTER GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE W THROUGH WED AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA.  THIS MAY BE FURTHER MODULATED BY TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE ONGOING UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA EARLY WED AND
HOW FAR N THE WARM FRONT GETS WED.  GFS APPEARS TO FALL VICTIM TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PUTTING ITS QPF
IN QUESTION.

GULF INFLOW WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE AT ALL AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AMPLITUDE FEATURE.  HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA NOW WILL
NOT BE PUSHED FAR TO THE S BY THE FRONT THAT IS STALLED OUT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL QUICKLY RETURN.  THIS...ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON 50 KTS MEAN MID
LEVEL FLOW AND VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
CONCERT WITH SWODY2 FROM SPC...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MOVEMENT SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES IMPACT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS LEFT
THU...BUT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY NOT LEAVE MUCH FOR THU EVEN GIVEN
A SLOWER SOLN.  HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS PARTIAL CLEARING THU AFTERNOON
AND NT.

HIGHS LOOKED GOOD FOR WED.  BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
BEYOND THAT INCLUDING A RATHER MILD ALBEIT WET WED NT BUT A GOOD
DEAL COOLER THU NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AT LEAST IN THE
DEWPT DEPT. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX QUICKLY RETURNS TO ROUND OUT THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOTHER TROF
MAKING INROADS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
AMPLITUDE OF WHICH REMAINS IN QUESTION. NONETHELESS CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE GIVEN HEALTHY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WITH FAIRLY ORGANIZED BAND OF
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO ISOLD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INVOF OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. AFT
00Z...WILL SEE SOME RECOVERY OF CIG AND VSBY VALUES. MENTIONING
MVFR FOG AT KEKN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH MOIST BL IN PLACE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING
COULD VARY BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FG IN
MOUNTAIN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1001 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...

REMNANTS OF A WEAK UPPER TROF...MORE LIKE A SHEAR AXIS AT THIS
POINT...EXTENDS FROM MIDDLE TN INTO NORTH MS. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST TN AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. ELSW THE UPPER RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD IN WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE. THE 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT CAP
SO THINK PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FOR EAST AR...MO
BOOTHEEL AND A GOOD PORTION OF WEST TN/NW MS. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A SHOWER/TSTM BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS. CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS ACROSS MAINLY NE
MS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. UPDATE OUT.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014/

AS OF 4AM...AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAIN HAS HUNG AROUND NEAR THE
MS RIVER DELTA TO THE SOUTH OF MEMPHIS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LATEST DUAL- POL THREE HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL INDICATES THAT 2
TO 3 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN A CONCENTRATED AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
WEST MEMPHIS ARKANSAS...BUT SO FAR NO PROBLEMS HAVE ARISEN. THIS
RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND MOVE THROUGH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND A STICKY 70 DEGREES. VISIBILITIES ARE
STARTING TO DROP A LITTLE BIT IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVALENT.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL STAY MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
70S AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY...HOT...AND HUMID. LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS
AND 90 PLUS DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 100
DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A MID-LEVEL
50 KT JET STREAK PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
MIXED STORM MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A
LINE WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SBCAPE VALUES WILL
APPROACH 2500 J/KG AND LI`S WILL BE NEAR -10C. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT AN MCS WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN...AN MCS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES SETS UP AND
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT STILL KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN CASE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE RIDGING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

AC3

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE A VCTS IS CARRIED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KTUP. AT KMEM AND KMKL...SHOWERS SHOULD
END BY LATER THIS MORNING. IFR/LIFR CIGS CIGS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES
AT KJBR THROUGH 14Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 8
KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 710 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014/

AS OF 4AM...AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAIN HAS HUNG AROUND NEAR THE
MS RIVER DELTA TO THE SOUTH OF MEMPHIS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LATEST DUAL- POL THREE HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL INDICATES THAT 2
TO 3 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN A CONCENTRATED AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
WEST MEMPHIS ARKANSAS...BUT SO FAR NO PROBLEMS HAVE ARISEN. THIS
RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND MOVE THROUGH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND A STICKY 70 DEGREES. VISIBILITIES ARE
STARTING TO DROP A LITTLE BIT IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVALENT.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL STAY MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
70S AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY...HOT...AND HUMID. LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS
AND 90 PLUS DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 100
DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A MID-LEVEL
50 KT JET STREAK PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
MIXED STORM MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A
LINE WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SBCAPE VALUES WILL
APPROACH 2500 J/KG AND LI`S WILL BE NEAR -10C. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT AN MCS WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN...AN MCS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES SETS UP AND
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT STILL KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN CASE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE RIDGING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE A VCTS IS CARRIED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KTUP. AT KMEM AND KMKL...SHOWERS SHOULD
END BY LATER THIS MORNING. IFR/LIFR CIGS CIGS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES
AT KJBR THROUGH 14Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 8
KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST...WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTH AS A TROUGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT TO
OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS IT APPROACHES OR ENTERS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA).
LATEST LAPS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIRLY DRY
AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR FA. THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTH FA STILL LOOKS OK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND AN H5 DIFLUENT FLOW MAY
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW
BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR
SOUTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD
INCREASE FOR THURSDAY BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE INTO A PRE-FRONTAL
OR LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGHING. STILL...THE CHANCE APPEARS LIMITED
BECAUSE OF A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH H85 WESTERLY FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE CHANCE POPS STILL APPEAR
HIGH ENOUGH. STRONG MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S
-6 TO -7. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING AND
CONSIDERABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL-GROWTH REGION WITH WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS NEAR 10500 FEET. THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH H85 WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS. THESE FACTORS
SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL.

USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST EXCEPT
THE WARMER GUIDANCE APPEARS BETTER WITH THE TEMPERATURES JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE FRONT OR ITS REMNANTS NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT POPS OF
20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY...AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CU WITH VFR
BASES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH
TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. SO...WILL NOT MENTION TS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF ANY MID/UPPER
CLOUD COVER. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 408 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MOVE EAST ALONG THIS
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH UPPER 60S NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014


AN INTERESTING SHORT TERM PERIOD TO CONTEND WITH. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
MOVED IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING AND DRY
AIR INTRUSION HAS LED TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER
40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HIRES
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DEGREE OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WITH HRRR BEGINNING TO GRAB ONTO IT. THIS A CONCERN
FOR EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR OUR AREA. NAM12 HAS BEEN THROWN OUT GIVEN ITS
CONTINUED OUTLIER SOLUTION OF BEING FURTHER NORTH. BLEND OF OTHER
HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY USED.

RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
AND INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT...NEARING OUR WESTERN
BORDER AROUND SUNRISE. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH LOCATION AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON IT DEVELOPING AND HEADING
TOWARD INDIANA. WARM FRONT BOUNDARY TO SOUTH WILL TRY TO WORK NORTH
TONIGHT WITH STRONG THETA E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET. EXPECT 850-700MB INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT CONCERN GROWING
THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO WORK NORTH ESPECIALLY ONCE MCS
BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED AND SURFACE BASED. THIS SHOULD TAKE BULK OF
STRONGEST CONVECTION SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY RETARD NORTHERN MOVEMENT
OF WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA. HIRES MODELS TAKE MCV INTO INDIANA
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
AND ASSOCIATED HIGHEST QPF. CURRENT THINKING FAVORS SOUTHERN
SOLUTIONS WITH HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN HALF BUT STILL
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS NORTH. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
RATHER LOW IN THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN POOR TIMING AND LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT
IN FAR WEST ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IF SYSTEM IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH MCV AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN AFTERNOON. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WITH HIGH
THETA E AIR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES BUT
SPEED OF SYSTEM TO HELP LIMIT AMOUNTS. KEPT HEAVY RAIN MENTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTH AND AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA LOOKS BEST.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY WILL CREEP
NORTH BUT EXPECT OUTFLOWS AND MCV CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH TO KEEP
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WIND SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE NEAR THE WARM FRONT WITH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS WITH LARGE CURVING
HODOGRAPHS DEPICTED. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND A FEW MODELS
SHOWING FURTHER NORTH PLACEMENT...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SEVERE
IN HWO FOR NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE BEGINNING OF THIS
SYSTEM HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH A LARGE HAIL/CORE STORM THAT WAS
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
FAVOR THE 12Z 4KM NAM WHICH IS VERIFYING THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH REASONABLY WELL...BUT WAS SHOWING TOO MUCH
DEVELOPMENT TOO FAR NORTH IN THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THEREFORE...
WITH THIS TIMING...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST. THERE WAS STILL SOME VARIETY
AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM CONCERNING THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
CONSENSUS AMONG THESE MODELS INDICATES CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWERED LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

CLEAR SKIES TO START THE PERIOD WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS
ALLOWED FOR STRONGER MIXING AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH
ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT GUSTS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE. LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO IL LATE
TONIGHT AND ACROSS INDIANA WEDNESDAY. QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONG
MODELS AS TO ITS TRACK AND EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT SO KEPT TAFS IN A
PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW WITH MORE REFINEMENT IN LATER ISSUANCES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 309 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

LATEST THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS FAR WEST AS A BENKELMAN TO GOODLAND AND
CHEYENNE WELLS LINE. THIS AREA IS WITHIN A 700 THETA-E AXIS ALONG
THE DRY LINE WHERE STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAXIMIZED
WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. BY 3 PM THE INSTABILITY
AXIS...FORCING AND LIFT SHOULD BE A COUNTY OR TWO FURTHER EAST AS
THE DRY LINE SURGES THAT DIRECTION. BY 6 PM MDT (7 PM CDT) THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND EAST OF A
MCCOOK TO GOVE TO LEOTI LINE. BY 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT) STORMS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA.

12Z NAM/18Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDEX VALUES
OF 65 TO NEAR 75KTS WHILE THE 12Z NCEP 4KM WRF-NMM INSTANTANEOUS
WIND GUST POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75
MPH. GFS EVEN HAS GUSTS OVER 75 MPH. WILL PLAY UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO POTENTIAL
ALTHOUGH CLOUD BASES WILL BE RATHER HIGH.

ONCE THE CIRRUS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND DRY LINE MOVES IN SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT FASTER INTO THE MID 90S TO AROUND
102. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 45 MPH TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

FOR TONIGHT SHOULD SEE A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WHERE SOME CIRRUS IS EXPECTED. EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOME
FOG IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MCCOOK...OBERLIN AND NORTON AREAS
AND HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PER 700-500RH MOVES INTO FAR
EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS IN WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 21Z
BRINGING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S EXCEPT A FEW LOW 90S ACROSS WALLACE...GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

WEDNESDAY EVENING A 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A DRY LINE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING THEN MOVE SOUTH FOLLOWING THE SURFACE LOW.  ANTICIPATE
THE COMBINED LIFT OF THE DRY LINE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
FACILITATE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING.  SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY HIGH LCLS SO AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT MUCH RAINFALL WILL REACH THE
GROUND IN THE EVENING...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE THE 700-500MB MIXING RATIO INCREASES AND
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.  WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE
ANTICIPATE STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA WHERE ELEVATED CAPE WILL RANGE FROM
800-1500 J/KG.  0-6KM SHEAR HAS INCREASED WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...NOW AT 50-60KTS.  WITH THIS MUCH SHEAR THE WEAKER UPDRAFTS
MAY BECOME SHEARED APART...BUT THE STORMS ROOTED IN THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE STORMS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA DURING THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST IN THE MORNING.  CAPE
PROFILE ARE FAIRLY NARROW IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND WINDS IN THE
LAYER ARE 30-40KTS.  HOWEVER WITH VERY GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AT THE
CLOUD BASE AND THE STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...QUARTER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH CERTAINLY SUPPORTS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

THURSDAY MORNING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO
ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE CINH AHEAD OF THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES OUT WHICH WILL ALSO
AFFECT HOW LONG THE STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY AM
ANTICIPATING THE STORMS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO THE MORNING
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CINH.  WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL LIFT OVER THE
AREA CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS FROM DEVELOPING SO WILL KEEP
SOME VERY LOW PRECIP. CHANCES GOING AS A RESULT.

TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER 500MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WEAKEST CAP BEING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA.  WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30KTS AND CAPE OF 1200 J/KG OR SO...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THURSDAY EVENING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ENDS.  DURING THE EVENING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HIGHER 700-500MB
MIXING RATIOS MOVE OVER THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.  SOUNDINGS
SHOW ELEVATED CAPE WITHIN THE HIGHER MIXING RATIOS SO WILL HAVE
HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.  DID INCLUDE A MENTION
OF ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA DUE TO HIGHER MIXING
RATIOS AND BROAD LIFT MOVING OVER THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 50KTS SO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHERE ELEVATED
CAPE IS AROUND 1000 J/KG.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLY UP TO GOLF BALL IN SIZE SINCE THE CAPE PROFILE IS
MUCH LARGER AND WINDS IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE ARE STRONGER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  DUE TO THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.



FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS
NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE TRI-STATE
AREA.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  ANTICIPATE STORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH LITTLE TO NOT BREAK BEFORE STORMS
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE ELEVATED CAPE REMAINING OVER
AREA.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA WHICH WILL SERVE TO INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR WITH IT.  A STRONGER 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.  WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FRIDAY...EXPECT
STORMS TO FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE IN.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA.  A
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT THE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM FORMING WITH ITS PASSAGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE HIGH.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA AGAIN AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EACH DAY BUT
SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS 25G35KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
BY 20Z THEN W/NW BY 23Z. AROUND 02Z A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15G25KTS FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS NORTHWEST THEN NORTH
AROUND 10KTS. MAY SEE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE NEAR OR
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AROUND 20Z WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST
AROUND 25KTS...THUS IF ONE DEVELOPS IT WOULD ONLY BE IN THE AREA
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POST FRONTAL STRATUS
MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME.

KMCK...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED FROM
TAF ISSUANCE TO 23Z THEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-20KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 02Z. FROM 02Z-05Z COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25KTS OR SO. AFTER 06Z WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AROUND 12KTS.

HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN THE 23Z-01Z TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WONT GET TOO SPECIFIC AT PRESENT
TIME. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOME BR/FG AND POST FRONTAL STRATUS
MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AREA IN THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 343 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

...Updated Long Term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

The main focus for this afternoon and evenings forecast is again for
chances of severe convection. One big negative for convective
development this afternoon is a warming mid level. Of the convective
allowing models a couple allow no storms across southwest Kansas
while the NMMs, 4 km NAM and the HRRR all support some type of
brief, mainly isolated supercell development coming out of eastern
Colorado near the dryline and sweeping east into west central KS.
Sufficient shear and MUCAPE combinations are in place to support a
brief window of severe threat including large hail (golf balls to
tennis balls in most instances) as well as damaging supercell RFD
winds. Any severe threat is likely confined to locations west of
highway 83 and is low to begin with given the trouble storms will
have gaining large depth.

Wind advisory conditions will persist through sunset before the
surface heating ceases. Some of the warmest overnight temperature of
the season will be experienced tonight and early tomorrow especially
across south central Kansas. The surface cold front will push though
the area by noon on Wednesday providing northeasterly upslope
surface flow. Models at this time are not indicating any additional
convection, at least during the daytime hours on Wednesday. The
model consensus for highs Wednesday range from upper 80s north to
upper 90s south and west.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

A convectively active period awaits midweek through the weekend as
southwestern Kansas finds itself in a favorable west-southwest flow
regime with a mean upper tropospheric jet extending from southern
California to central Kansas. A cold front will push south late
tonight into early Wednesday before stalling out just to our south
across the northern Panhandles/far northwest Oklahoma. A few
surface-based storms may form across Barber County late afternoon
Wednesday, however a very warm middle troposphere will likely
prevent surface based convection. Things will change quite a bit
overnight Wednesday night as the 850-700mb layer becomes very warm
frontogenetic as a weak upper level disturbance ripples
east-northeast through the pattern. The warm frontogenetic forcing
for ascent will be quite strong during the 06-12Z Thursday time
frame. Ample moisture in this frontogenetic layer will contribute to
upwards of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE during the overnight hours. All the
reliable global mesoscale models at this time frame are bullish on
nocturnal convective development...and fairly vigorous at
that...especially north of a Garden City to Dodge City to Pratt
line. 2-7km AGL deep layer shear in combination with the
aforementioned 2000 CAPE will be more than favorable for elevated
severe storms capable of very large hail perhaps to two inches in
diameter. A heavy rain threat will also exist as storms would likely
form in a northwest to south east orientation with some individual
convective cell training a distinct possibility.

Everywhere we have 50 or greater POP we will amend the thunderstorm
forecast with Large Hail and Heavy Rain. This will be mesoscale
convective system (MCS) Number One. The overall pattern will remain
unchanged, and the setup for another MCS (Number Two) will likely
take place across the southern half of the DDC forecast area
(along/south of the Arkansas River) in a renewed zone of 850-700mb
warm frontogenesis. MCS Number Two would likely move off into south
central KS and/or northern Oklahoma by daybreak Friday with some
recovery taking place through the day Friday. The surface front will
likely remain just south of the Kansas-Oklahoma border with
post-frontal upslope convection likely to form across eastern
Colorado late in the day Friday. Some of this diurnal activity may
spread into far west-central/southwest Kansas by early Friday
evening as MCS Number Three. What seems more likely is that
nocturnal MCS Number Three will materialize after sunset Friday as
yet another minor disturbance moves northeast through the pattern
across the Central Plains. Eventually, a final, stronger shortwave
trough will eject out into the Central Plains by late in the weekend
and surface-based storms may impact southwestern Kansas. By Saturday
and Sunday, though, the details become increasingly sketchy as the
result of MCS Number Three may place the effective front too far
south for MCS Number Four to impact southwestern Kansas.

The bottom line is that a wet period is in store and much of the
southwest Kansas region will see in excess of an inch of rain before
all is said and done.  There will likely be some areas of the
southwest Kansas region that see MUCH more than that...especially of
successive MCS`s track over the same general areas of our region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Thunderstorms
may develop in extreme eastern Colorado this afternoon, and spread
east as high based supercells, the remnants of which may affect the
terminals between 23 and 02 UTC. A surface frontal boundary will
drop into the area by around 10 UTC turning winds northwest.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  92  62  84 /  10  10  50  40
GCK  64  92  61  82 /  20  10  50  40
EHA  65  94  61  85 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  66  95  63  87 /  20  10  30  20
HYS  66  85  60  81 /  30  10  50  50
P28  72  97  66  86 /  10  20  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ061-062-074-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 241 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Southerly winds around 25 knots developed by early afternoon across
most of the forecast area with exception of the far southeast
counties. Temperatures warmed into the the low 90s with  dew points
mixing out by around 5 degrees F around Dodge city and eastward.
Farther  west the dew points had mixed out more significantly near
the CO state line, however the observation at Syracuse was still in
the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

The main focus for this afternoon and evenings forecast is again for
chances of severe convection. One big negative for convective
development this afternoon is a warming mid level. Of the convective
allowing models a couple allow no storms across southwest Kansas
while the NMMs, 4 km NAM and the HRRR all support some type of
brief, mainly isolated supercell development coming out of eastern
Colorado near the dryline and sweeping east into west central KS.
Sufficient shear and MUCAPE combinations are in place to support a
brief window of severe threat including large hail (golf balls to
tennis balls in most instances) as well as damaging supercell RFD
winds. Any severe threat is likely confined to locations west of
highway 83 and is low to begin with given the trouble storms will
have gaining large depth.

Wind advisory conditions will persist through sunset before the
surface heating ceases. Some of the warmest overnight temperature of
the season will be experienced tonight and early tomorrow especially
across south central Kansas. The surface cold front will push though
the area by noon on Wednesday providing northeasterly upslope
surface flow. Models at this time are not indicating any additional
convection, at least during the daytime hours on Wednesday. The
model consensus for highs Wednesday range from upper 80s north to
upper 90s south and west.



.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

A series of minor shortwave troughs will eject eastward across the
plains through Saturday night. A surface front will be stalled out
across Oklahoma most of this time. Nocturnal storm clusters will
develop north of the stalled out front in a warm advection pattern.
In addition, on Thursday and Friday, low level upslope flow and
elevated heating along the front range, Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa
will lead to thunderstorm clusters developing to our west and then
progressing across parts of western Kansas in the evening and at
night. Thus, there are chances for thunderstorms at some point in
the days or nights through early Sunday. Since the surface front
will be stalled to our south, the chance for tornadic type storms
is low, except for perhaps right along the Oklahoma state line
Friday and Saturday if the surface front edges far enough north.
However, severe weather with hail is still possible, and perhaps
even damaging winds. A break in the storm chances may occur by
Sunday and Sunday night as a shortwave trough pushes a cold front
into the southern plains.

Temperatures will be held down by upslope flow, cloud cover and even
storm outflow through Saturday, with highs mainly from the upper 70s
to the lower 90s. Lows will be mainly in the 60s given the high
dewpoints in place for most of the time. Highs may drop into the
mid 70s Sunday as surface high pressure builds into western
Kansas, with lows dropping into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Thunderstorms
may develop in extreme eastern Colorado this afternoon, and spread
east as high based supercells, the remnants of which may affect the
terminals between 23 and 02 UTC. A surface frontal boundary will
drop into the area by around 10 UTC turning winds northwest.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

A red flag warning is in place through this evening for Kearney
Hamilton, Stevens and Morton counties. If conditions meet red flag
criteria it will not be until after 4 pm, but could easily extend
through around 7 or 8 pm with red flag conditions.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  91  62  84 /  10  10  60  50
GCK  64  88  61  82 /  20  10  60  50
EHA  65  93  61  85 /  10  10  20  30
LBL  66  91  63  87 /  20  10  30  30
HYS  66  87  60  81 /  30  10  30  30
P28  72  92  66  86 /  10  20  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ061-062-074-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 107 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

LATEST THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS FAR WEST AS A BENKELMAN TO GOODLAND AND
CHEYENNE WELLS LINE. THIS AREA IS WITHIN A 700 THETA-E AXIS ALONG
THE DRYLINE WHERE STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAXIMIZED
WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. BY 3 PM THE INSTABILITY
AXIS...FORCING AND LIFT SHOULD BE A COUNTY OR TWO FURTHER EAST AS
THE DRYLINE SURGES THAT DIRECTION. BY 6 PM MDT (7 PM CDT) THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND EAST OF A
MCCOOK TO GOVE TO LEOTI LINE. BY 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT) STORMS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA.

12Z NAM/18Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDEX VALUES
OF 65 TO NEAR 75KTS WHILE THE 12Z NCEP 4KM WRF-NMM INSTANTANEOUS
WIND GUST POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75
MPH. GFS EVEN HAS GUSTS OVER 75 MPH. WILL PLAY UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT IN THE HWOGLD PRODUCT.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH CLOUD BASES
WILL BE RATHER HIGH.

ONCE THE CIRRUS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND DRYLINE MOVES IN SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT FASTER INTO THE MID 90S TO AROUND
102. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 45 MPH TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. SATELLITE IS SHOWING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAN 24 HOURS AND THIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC HAS SHARPENED UP AND THE COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST HAS DEEPENED SOME. SATELLITE IS SHOWING A TROPICAL
CONNECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWS A VERY DRY AND HOT AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS. A PLENTIFUL
AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD.

AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN...SREF...NAM AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST.
AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
UKMET/NAM WITH THE ECMWF/SREF THE WORST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD.
THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT HAS MATERIALIZED OVER THE AREA WITH
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ANALYSIS AND
PROGS SHOW THAT ELEVATED CINH WILL REMAIN STRONG AND NOT ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. SO WILL KEEP THE MORNING DRY. LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS MOISTENING UP AND ALREADY HAVE FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING.
EVENING SHIFT PUT IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THAT LOOKS
ON TRACK.

MODELS AGAIN SHOWING DIFFERENCES AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN GENERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING JET LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS THEN MOVE THE JET AXIS/JET
LIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT PROVIDING CONTINUED LIFT.
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA.

COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN IS EMERGING. OLD FRONT HAS COME BACK
NORTH AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT/LOSING ITS BAROCLINICITY.
AT THE SAME TIME A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM HAS PUSHED A COLD
FRONT SOUTH. ONE OR TWO SCENARIOS LOOK LIKELY. MODELS SHOW THE WINDS
SHIFTING FROM AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING. SO
THEY ARE MOVING THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH...WASHING IT OUT
COMPLETELY AND KEEPING THE OTHER BOUNDARY NORTH OF US OR COMBINING
THE TWO. AS IT LOOKS NOW THIS SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE TO THE
NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

WITH SOME HELP FROM LIFT ALOFT...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR OUR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A DRY LINE THAT MOVES ACROSS FROM WEST TO
EAST. MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THIS DRYLINE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW THIS
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF IT. DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE WATCH IF THIS WESTWARD SHIFT CONTINUES. HOWEVER...THE
PROBLEM NO MATTER WHERE THE DRY LINE ENDS UP IS THE DRY AND HOT AIR
MASS ABOVE THE SURFACE. LOOK TO HAVE A STOUT EML PLUS 700 MB
TEMPERATURES OF +16 OR HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.

SO THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT...WEAKEST CAP...LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
BREAK THROUGH WHATEVER INHIBITION THERE IS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET CONSIDERING THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY 06Z.

GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING TOWARD A WINDY DAY. AT THIS TIME IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY. THE GRADIENT...THREE HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS...AND 800 MB/850 MB WINDS STAY JUST UNDER/NEAR 45
MPH. COULD THERE BE A GUST OR TWO TO 45 MPH...YES...BUT VERY HARD TO
PINPOINT AND DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE IN THE WINDY CATEGORY
FOR A BRIEF TIME.

WITH WHATEVER FRONT NOW LOOKING TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS
MORNING...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
NUMBER OF AREAS LOOK TO GET ABOVE 100 DEGREES. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE
THAT THESE MAY STILL NEED TO BE RAISED.

PER FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FROM YESTERDAY AND FIRE WEATHER FOCAL
POINT GETTING FEEDBACK FROM AROUND THE AREA THAT FUELS HAVE GREENED
UP...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EVEN THOUGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS KEEP THE JET LIFT NEAR OR OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MAIN LIFT THROUGH MID LEVELS...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON AND DID NOT CHANGE.

SOME KIND OF JET LIFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
NIGHT PERIOD BECOMES MORE INTERESTING. ALL THE MODELS POINT AT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/OPEN WAVE AT 500 MB COMING IN ALONG WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OR SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION AT 700
MB. MODELS DISAGREE WHERE THEY PUT THE MAIN/BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE COLUMN ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SAY THERE SHOULD BE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

THE PROBLEM IS THEY DIFFER ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH. THE GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH WITH SREF PROBABILITIES AND MORE
SPECIFIC WITH WHERE IT HAS THE HIGHEST QPF. OVERALL NWP POPS
INCREASED AND HAVE POPS FURTHER EAST DURING THE NIGHT. SO HAVE LOWER
POPS...INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING AFTER 06Z. IF MODELS WERE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON DETAILS WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GOING LIKELY. STORM
MOVEMENTS APPEAR TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM WEST TO EAST SO THERE
SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. MORE THAN LIKELY POPS WILL
NEED TO BE RAISED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS BUT
CONFIDENCE JUST NOT THERE RIGHT NOW.

MODELS WARMED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES DESPITE BEING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. DID RAISE MAXES BUT KEPT THEM BETWEEN THE COOLER AND WARMER
GUIDANCE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA GETS WEAKER BUT
SOME KIND OF JET LIFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES. AGREE WITH THE DAY SHIFTS ASSESSMENT
ABOUT THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND LOOK TO HANG ON THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF THAT ALTHOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES
MENTIONED IN DISCUSSION ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE STILL IN PLAY. SO
AGAIN RAISED POPS IN THE MORNING BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE. THESE POPS COULD STILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. LOWER POPS
WERE INSERTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN LIFT EXPECTED TO BE
OUT OF THE AREA.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY CONSIDERING THE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING. CLOUD COVER
COULD ALSO LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
NEED TO BE LOWERED ESPECIALLY IF THE WETTER MODEL OUTPUT VERIFIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

A WET AND SOMEWHAT COOLER PATTERN WILL SET UP LATE THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION HAVING A GREAT SHOT AT
RECEIVING A HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH SWIFTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SAME
TIME A COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING SOUTH DOWN THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AIDED BY EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. PWAT VALUES
WILL BE ONE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL /MODEL CONSENSUS
OF AROUND 1.2 INCHES LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY/ AND STORM
MOTIONS VERY SLOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY /LESS THAN 10KTS/
SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

BEYOND THIS COLD FRONT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST...CENTERED OVER IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI BY
MONDAY MORNING...THUS TURNING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR WESTERN
KS/EASTERN CO/SW NEB AND ALLOWING MUCH WARMER AIR TO BE ADVECTED
NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING INTO WESTERN KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS 25G35KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
BY 20Z THEN W/NW BY 23Z. AROUND 02Z A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15G25KTS FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS NORTHWEST THEN NORTH
AROUND 10KTS. MAY SEE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE NEAR OR
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AROUND 20Z WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST
AROUND 25KTS...THUS IF ONE DEVELOPS IT WOULD ONLY BE IN THE AREA
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POST FRONTAL STRATUS
MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN THE 10-14Z TIMEFRAME.

KMCK...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED FROM
TAF ISSUANCE TO 23Z THEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-20KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 02Z. FROM 02Z-05Z COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25KTS OR SO. AFTER 06Z WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AROUND 12KTS.

HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN THE 23Z-01Z TIMEFRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WONT GET TOO SPECIFIC AT PRESENT
TIME. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOME BR/FG AND POST FRONTAL STRATUS
MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AREA IN THE 10Z-14Z TIMEFRAME.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON JUN 2 2014

RECORD AND/OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
(TUESDAY) AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:

GOODLAND...99 IN 1933
BURLINGTON...97 IN 2013
HILL CITY...98 IN 1934

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...99
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...DDT







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

08Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave moving across southern
NV towards the four corners region with a plume of subtropical
moisture being pulled into the central Rockies. Surface obs show a
warm and very moist airmass remains in place across the southern
and central plains. A poorly defined stationary front was set up
across southern Neb and southern IA as indicated by the objective
analysis of isotherms and isodrosotherms.

For today models show a good thermodynamic profile for deep moist
convection to develop across the area. Surface based CAPE is progged
to increase to as much as 3000 J/kg with little inhibition initially
over northeast KS. There is also some indication of increasing Q
vector convergence and PVA in advance of the shortwave as it crosses
the central Rockies this afternoon. The main source of uncertainty
in the models is the location of the surface boundary during peak
heating. The NAM/GEM/HRRR/RAP are tending to keep the boundary near
the NEB state line or slightly north of the state line. And the
GFS/ECMWF solutions lift the boundary north very quickly in the
evening. The other complicating factor is the advection of a strong
elevated mixed layer (EML) from the southwest through the evening.
With the majority of solutions suggesting the boundary and low level
focus for convection will be closer to the NEB state line, the
forecast continues to show the higher POPs over far northeast KS.
Have only a slight chance POP from Abilene to Emporia thinking the
capping inversion will advect into these areas by the late afternoon
inhibiting convection. By the late evening, the EML is likely to
bring an end to convection from west to east over the area.

As for severe potential, large hail and damaging winds would be a
good bet with any storms that develop given the 0-6 km shear of 50
to 60 kts and moderate instability. Discrete storms should quickly
become supercells due to the good deep layer shear. However 0-1 km
shear parameters from the NAM and RAP are rather weak (bulk shear
around 10 kts) through the afternoon, and models don`t show these
fields increasing until the low level jet begins increasing through
the evening. By this time, models suggest that convection may have
evolved into an MCS. So while there is a chance for tornados through
the afternoon, am not sure the set up is ideal. The exception would
be if the boundary sets up further south and surface winds are able
to remain backed to the southeast. If this were to occur, it would
most likely be across far northeast KS and still 0-1 km shear
parameters may only be marginally better for tornados. Additionally
heavy rain and flash flooding will pose a hazard as models show PWs
approaching 2 inches along the MO river valley this evening.
Considered a flash flood watch for northeast KS, but with most of
the guidance keeping the axis of heavier rainfall north of the
forecast area decided to hold off.

With models bringing the thermal ridge into central KS today, highs
should be warmer with upper 80s in the far east to middle 90s in
central KS. Previous forecast high looks reasonable and only made
minor adjustments. Tonight think the MCS should move off to the east
shortly after midnight as the EML continues advecting in. As for
lows Wednesday morning, models have trended slower with the Pacific
front sweeping through the area. This would keep a breezy southwest
wind and a mixed boundary layer for much of the forecast area.
Because of this have trended min temps up into the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Wednesday and Wednesday Night...An upper level trough will shift
east across the southern Great Lakes States and OH river valley. a
surface ridge will build southward into eastern KS through the
afternoon hours. Expect dry conditions through most of the period.
An MCS may develop across southeast CO and southwest KS during the
evening hours and track east across south central KS through the
night. This thunderstorm complex may begin to move into the
southwest counties of the CWA by sunrise. Highs will reach the mid
80s across much of the area with upper 80s across the southeast
counties. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday and Thursday night...the northern edge of the MCS may move
east across the southern counties of the CWA during the morning
hours. A minor H5 trough will move east across the state and will
bring a chance for thunderstorms across the remainder of the CWA
during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these thunderstorms
may be strong to severe with the primary hazards being large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Another MCS may develop across
northeast NM and southeast CO. This MCS may track south of the CWA
late Thursday night into Friday morning. Highs will be around 80.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 60s.

Friday through Sunday...there will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms as an upper level trough across the desert southwest
gradually lifts northeast across the central an southern plains. Our
best chance for rain may occur Saturday night through Sunday morning
as the stronger ascent spreads northeast across eastern KS ahead of
the H5 trough. Also, a surface cold front will be pushing southeast
across the state of KS Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. The
front may push southeast of the CWA by Sunday afternoon allowing for
skies to clear.

Highs will be dependent on cloud cover but expect upper 70s to lower
80s for most areas. Sunday may be slightly cooler behind the cold
front with mid to upper 70s expected. Overnight lows will be in the
60s.

Monday...a surface ridge will build southward across KS bringing
dry weather. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

BKN cumulus field seen across KTOP/KFOE as a warm front gradually
lifts northward. Monitoring potential for TSRA development along
this boundary in the next few hours. While an isolated storm may
impact these two terminals, confidence is only high enough for a
VCTS mention aft 20Z. Warm front is north of KMHK with VFR
prevailing. Southerly winds increase through the aftn and
overnight period between 12 and 18 kts sustained. Gusts could peak
up to 30 kts especially in the late afternoon and early evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 255 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...

But first we have to deal with scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. We have an axis of higher moisture allowing
storms to fire off over southern Indiana so far today. This axis
will shift into the Ohio River Valley the rest of the afternoon
hours and allow for the storms to develop down here. The NAM
stability parameter for these storms seems too high, with it giving
us a higher threat for damaging winds and even hail in these storms.
The RUC looks a little closer to reality. This model indicates gusts
could get up to the 45-50 mph range in stronger downbursts.

Activity should wind down later this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. However, a frontal boundary will stall out
somewhere in the northeast half of our forecast area overnight,
providing a focus for new development toward daybreak Wednesday. In
addition, a potent MCS, developing at this time over NE/SD will rush
southeastward overnight.  Will have to monitor how quickly this
system pushes towards us as it will play a key part in how our
severe weather threat pans out the rest of the day Wednesday.

With this forecast package we are still assuming a couple of rounds
of storms possible during the day Wednesday.  The first with the
above front should taper off by late morning. A few models develop
new thunderstorms along this boundary even during the late morning
and early afternoon hours, which is not out of the question given
the moist airmass in place and boundaries running around. However,
still think the threat for severe will be highest should we get a
longer pause and consequent destabilization. Still looking at
discrete convection at the onset, which could lead to isolated
tornadoes over southern Indiana at first. Then as a line starts to
merge from these cells, we would see damaging winds take over as the
main threat, especially as model DCAPEs are well into the 1000s.

Timing this threat into the rest of Kentucky is a little more
difficult as we have to see how the line organizes. It should push
southeastward, but perhaps force new convection off to the west of
the line. The 4 km NAM blasts a long east/west line through our
whole forecast area in the evening, which would neutralize any
further threat for severe weather. However the 12km NAM has a
somewhat similar setup to what we had two Wednesday ago, with storms
first firing over southern Indiana, pushing southeast and then
additional development west of the line. That scenario would keep
the threat for severe weather well into the night, as well as the
potential for flooding rains in areas that get more than one round
of storms.

The actual front looks to move into the region early Thursday,
bringing an end to precip along with drier and cooler air. Have lows
Thursday morning ranging from the upper 50s in southern Indiana to
around 70 in south central Kentucky. Highs Wednesday of course will
depend on the cloud cover, but for now have readings similar to
today, though south central Kentucky taking longer to cloud over
should get them at least into the upper 80s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014

The cold front will continue to move southward Thursday, sinking
south of the KY/TN border by mid day. Some showers or thunderstorms
will persist across south central KY in the morning hours before the
drier air work in during the afternoon. Dry conditions are then
expected Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the north.
Another wave riding along the frontal boundary may spread a few
showers into the southwestern portion of southern KY Friday, but
most of the region should remain dry through Friday night.
Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday with highs only reaching
into the mid to upper 70s. Lows will dip down into the mid to upper
50s. Friday will see a bit of warming with highs back into the lower
80s.

A warm front will then move back to the north across the area
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop as moisture surges back in, with the better chance for
storms Saturday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
Sunday into Sunday night ahead of the cold front. There is still a
bit of disagreement in the models as to how fast the cold front
moves through, but it should clear the area by mid day Monday and
high pressure will build in once again. We should then see dry
conditions through Tuesday. High temperatures will be back into the
mid 80s Saturday and Sunday. Behind the front Monday`s highs will
drop back into the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2014

Instability slowly increasing as morning clouds break up. Chance for
storms appear to be increase at KSDF and KLEX, with high enough
confidence in the former to go with a tempo group for gusty storms.
The chance will continue late in the overnight as a frontal boundary
stalls over the region and lift along in provides the focus for
additional storms. Think they will be scattered in nature, so have a
prob30 group in at KSDF and KLEX for the morning hours. We should
get additional storms late in the period at KSDF, but they may hold
off until the evening hours, so have kept out of the TAFs at this
point. Winds will stay out of the west and southwest today and then
pick up from the southwest Wednesday late morning as a low pressure
area approaches.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 227 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING
HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
TOWARD THE OH RIVER AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE
MORE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL. THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE SOME
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN IL AND OH THAT THEY MIGRATE SOUTH
AWAY FROM THE FRONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARD
SUNSET. THE MODELS HAVE THIS CONVECTION DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET.
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POPS FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH FROM LATE AFTERNOON. THESE CHANCE POPS WERE BROUGHT AS
FAR SOUTH AS JKL AND SJS THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT FROM WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT. TIMING OF THIS EVENT AND EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
LATE EVENING WITH A WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. THE
SHEAR APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF BOW OR
MULTIPLE BOW OR LINE SEGMENTS SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGION AND THEN PROPAGATE INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION BY LATE WED
EVENING OR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. SOME LARGE HAIL
AND A STRAY BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS. DISCRETE
CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD
APPEAR MORE PROBABLE MAINLY NORTH OF EAST KY...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW
TRACK AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT TO ITS EAST AND OR SOUTHEAST. MULTIPLE
THREATS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND ALSO IN A WEB
BRIEFING. ATTM...OPTED TO ADD A SEVERE ATTRIBUTE FROM THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS OF THU. ALONG WITH THIS A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ATTRIBUTE FROM THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
THU WERE ADDED TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE ZFP AND HOURLY GRIDS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

WITH EXTENSIVE SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR...HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS RESULTING IN A BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING SE THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE VA BORDER AT THE START OF THE FIRST
PERIOD AT 12Z. WILL USE PEAK POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT WITH THIS AREA OF
PRECIP. IT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AS IT EXITS OUT OF THE STATE DURING
THE MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING MOVING IN.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z...AND POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED ADVECTION
OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE REGION SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
SHEAR/WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND NO
SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGERS ALOFT FOR DEEP CONVECTION ARE SEEN. THAT BEING
THE CASE...POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT LOOK TO BE LOW. IF
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT ARE ENOUGH TO GET SOME STORMS
STARTED...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OR HAIL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH...ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT.
HEATING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY. THE NAM AND GFS STILL HAVE NOT COME TO
A CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...BUT BOTH MODELS
SHOW A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR BY LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. IF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR IN THE NORTH LATE IN
THE DAY...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WX. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE JKL AREA HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

MID TERM WILL START OUT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT ISN/T PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE IN STRENGTH...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH KY WILL PUT US IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR
HEIGHTENED LIFT AND INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
TO BE PULLED IN FROM THE GULF.

A COUPLE THINGS TO POINT OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM. FIRST IS THE MODEL
AGREEMENT. AT THIS TIME...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THE INITIAL SET UP AND OVERALL IMPACT. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF QPF IS SOMEWHAT LACKING. THE GFS PINS THE MOST
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...AND COINCIDES WITH THE GEM AND
ECMWF ON THE OVERALL TIMING OF BEST IMPACT. THE NAM ON THE OTHER
HAND BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION MUCH LATER...AND
KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST IMPACTS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
OVERALL PRECIP TOTALS.

THE SECOND THING TO NOTE IS THE TYPE OF CONVECTION. SEVERAL THINGS
SHOULD COME INTO PLAY DURING THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST GFS...THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ALMOST HORIZONTALLY
THROUGH KY STARTING AROUND 6Z. THIS MAKES SENSE...AS THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL LIKELY ENTER THE REGION SEVERAL HOURS SOONER.
HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE...THE
BEST LIFT AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PUSH THROUGH BEFORE THE MAIN
LINE OF PRECIP. EVEN WITHIN ITS OWN MODEL RUN...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
MAIN QPF MOVING TROUGH FROM NW TO SE FROM 0Z TO 12Z...WHILE THE BEST
CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO MOVE THROUGH SOME 6 HOURS SOONER. WITH SOME
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEER AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP...AND AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...THINK THIS WILL BE A TWO PUNCH EVENT.
FIRST...BASED ON THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATE TIMING...EXPECT
THAT SOME MCS/S WILL DEVELOP FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THEN...BEHIND THESE CELLS...WILL BE THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP. WITH
THIS LINE...LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AT LARGE
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT /CONTINUED GOOD LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS OVERALL SPEED SHEER/ AND GOOD
INSTABILITY INDEXES. THIS WILL LIKELY ALL COME TOGETHER IN THE FORM
OF A DERECHO/SQUALL LINE EVENT. GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER...AND DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...QUICK SPIN UPS OF
TORNADOES AND HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WITHIN THE LINE /OR EVEN
INDIVIDUAL MCS/S/ ARE POSSIBILITIES.

ONCE THIS FRONT FINALLY PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR
FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL FILTER DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND
CUT OFF ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ON TO
THE MOISTURE SLIGHTLY LONGER...BUT REGARDLESS ON SOME TIMING
INCONSISTENCIES...EXPECT MOST OF THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY/OR
BECOMING DRY ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TAKE
HOLD...ALLOWING THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S AND SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR. FROM THIS POINT FORWARD WILL
RELY MORE HEAVILY ON THE ALLBLEND...AS MODELS SEEM TO TAKE A GIANT
STEP BACKWARDS FOR CONSISTENCY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND BAND OF MOISTURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NE...THEY HAVE IT TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
FOLLOWING THE SURFACE FRONT...AND MISSING CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY ALL
TOGETHER. THE GEM ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...PULLING MORE PRECIP INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN THIS TRACK BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN COULD MAKE EITHER SOLUTION CORRECT. REGARDLESS...THERE SHOULD
BE LITTLE INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT COULD LEAD TO THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT.

THE NEXT MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS THE REGION ONCE
MORE. SO FAR...MODELS ARE SHOCKINGLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM...WITH TWO WAVES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH...THE FIRST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THEN THE SECOND SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. WITH SUCH AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF FAIRLY HIGH
QPF...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THIS MIGHT BE A SYSTEM TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HYDRO CONCERNS. REGARDLESS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

CLOUD BASES CONTINUE TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS FROM EARLIER
TODAY. OVERALL...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA AND LEAVES MOST OF THE
CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL ABOUT 6Z TO 12Z OR
SO...AND THEN RETREATS NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA 18Z TO 02Z...AND SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND THEN MIGRATE TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA 22Z TO 4Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...MVFR
AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE 5Z TO 13Z. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 1245 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING
HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
TOWARD THE OH RIVER AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE
MORE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL. THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE SOME
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN IL AND OH THAT THEY MIGRATE SOUTH
AWAY FROM THE FRONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARD
SUNSET. THE MODELS HAVE THIS CONVECTION DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET.
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POPS FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH FROM LATE AFTERNOON. THESE CHANCE POPS WERE BROUGHT AS
FAR SOUTH AS JKL AND SJS THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT FROM WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT. TIMING OF THIS EVENT AND EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
LATE EVENING WITH A WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. THE
SHEAR APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF BOW OR
MULTIPLE BOW OR LINE SEGMENTS SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGION AND THEN PROPAGATE INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION BY LATE WED
EVENING OR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. SOME LARGE HAIL
AND A STRAY BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS. DISCRETE
CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD
APPEAR MORE PROBABLE MAINLY NORTH OF EAST KY...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW
TRACK AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT TO ITS EAST AND OR SOUTHEAST. MULTIPLE
THREATS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND ALSO IN A WEB
BRIEFING. ATTM...OPTED TO ADD A SEVERE ATTRIBUTE FROM THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS OF THU. ALONG WITH THIS A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ATTRIBUTE FROM THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
THU WERE ADDED TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE ZFP AND HOURLY GRIDS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

WITH EXTENSIVE SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR...HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS RESULTING IN A BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING SE THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE VA BORDER AT THE START OF THE FIRST
PERIOD AT 12Z. WILL USE PEAK POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT WITH THIS AREA OF
PRECIP. IT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AS IT EXITS OUT OF THE STATE DURING
THE MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING MOVING IN.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z...AND POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED ADVECTION
OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE REGION SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
SHEAR/WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND NO
SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGERS ALOFT FOR DEEP CONVECTION ARE SEEN. THAT BEING
THE CASE...POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT LOOK TO BE LOW. IF
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT ARE ENOUGH TO GET SOME STORMS
STARTED...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OR HAIL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH...ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT.
HEATING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY. THE NAM AND GFS STILL HAVE NOT COME TO
A CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...BUT BOTH MODELS
SHOW A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR BY LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. IF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR IN THE NORTH LATE IN
THE DAY...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WX. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE JKL AREA HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

MID TERM WILL START OUT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT ISN/T PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE IN STRENGTH...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH KY WILL PUT US IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR
HEIGHTENED LIFT AND INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
TO BE PULLED IN FROM THE GULF.

A COUPLE THINGS TO POINT OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM. FIRST IS THE MODEL
AGREEMENT. AT THIS TIME...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THE INITIAL SET UP AND OVERALL IMPACT. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF QPF IS SOMEWHAT LACKING. THE GFS PINS THE MOST
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...AND COINCIDES WITH THE GEM AND
ECMWF ON THE OVERALL TIMING OF BEST IMPACT. THE NAM ON THE OTHER
HAND BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION MUCH LATER...AND
KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST IMPACTS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
OVERALL PRECIP TOTALS.

THE SECOND THING TO NOTE IS THE TYPE OF CONVECTION. SEVERAL THINGS
SHOULD COME INTO PLAY DURING THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST GFS...THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ALMOST HORIZONTALLY
THROUGH KY STARTING AROUND 6Z. THIS MAKES SENSE...AS THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL LIKELY ENTER THE REGION SEVERAL HOURS SOONER.
HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE...THE
BEST LIFT AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PUSH THROUGH BEFORE THE MAIN
LINE OF PRECIP. EVEN WITHIN ITS OWN MODEL RUN...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
MAIN QPF MOVING TROUGH FROM NW TO SE FROM 0Z TO 12Z...WHILE THE BEST
CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO MOVE THROUGH SOME 6 HOURS SOONER. WITH SOME
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEER AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP...AND AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...THINK THIS WILL BE A TWO PUNCH EVENT.
FIRST...BASED ON THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATE TIMING...EXPECT
THAT SOME MCS/S WILL DEVELOP FIRST MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THEN...BEHIND THESE CELLS...WILL BE THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP. WITH
THIS LINE...LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AT LARGE
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT /CONTINUED GOOD LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS OVERALL SPEED SHEER/ AND GOOD
INSTABILITY INDEXES. THIS WILL LIKELY ALL COME TOGETHER IN THE FORM
OF A DERECHO/SQUALL LINE EVENT. GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER...AND DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...QUICK SPIN UPS OF
TORNADOES AND HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WITHIN THE LINE /OR EVEN
INDIVIDUAL MCS/S/ ARE POSSIBILITIES.

ONCE THIS FRONT FINALLY PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR
FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL FILTER DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND
CUT OFF ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ON TO
THE MOISTURE SLIGHTLY LONGER...BUT REGARDLESS ON SOME TIMING
INCONSISTENCIES...EXPECT MOST OF THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY/OR
BECOMING DRY ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TAKE
HOLD...ALLOWING THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S AND SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR. FROM THIS POINT FORWARD WILL
RELY MORE HEAVILY ON THE ALLBLEND...AS MODELS SEEM TO TAKE A GIANT
STEP BACKWARDS FOR CONSISTENCY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND BAND OF MOISTURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NE...THEY HAVE IT TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
FOLLOWING THE SURFACE FRONT...AND MISSING CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY ALL
TOGETHER. THE GEM ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...PULLING MORE PRECIP INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN THIS TRACK BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN COULD MAKE EITHER SOLUTION CORRECT. REGARDLESS...THERE SHOULD
BE LITTLE INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT COULD LEAD TO THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT.

THE NEXT MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS THE REGION ONCE
MORE. SO FAR...MODELS ARE SHOCKINGLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM...WITH TWO WAVES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH...THE FIRST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THEN THE SECOND SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. WITH SUCH AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF FAIRLY HIGH
QPF...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THIS MIGHT BE A SYSTEM TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HYDRO CONCERNS. REGARDLESS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER EXTREME SE KY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THEM WILL EXIT KY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 14Z. CONDITIONS
AT TAF ISSUANCE WERE MOSTLY MVFR AND LOW VFR...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CEILINGS. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WERE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT SHOULD SPREAD EAST THIS MORNING. CLOUD BASES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND MID DAY...AND CEILINGS WILL ALSO BREAK
UP...LEAVING MAINLY VFR LASTING INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY POINT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN A TAF.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 428 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER NRN ONTARIO AND A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...GUSTY WEST WINDS PREVAILED BEHIND
A DEPARTING 993 MB LOW TO NEAR JAMES BAY. RADAR INDICATED A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
RELATIVELY LOW 800 MB TEMPS NEAR 2C ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE DIURNAL CELLULAR CU AND ANY SPRINKLES
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

WED...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NRN
LAKES AND KEEPS THE ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDAY WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM
SRN IA INTO NRN IL. WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...PROMINENT LAKE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. DEEP MIXING ABOVE 850 MB WILL DROP AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS BELOW 40F WITH RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT AS INLAND HIGH TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

AT 00Z THURSDAY THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE STRETCHED FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND WI. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDED FROM
THE MAIN HIGH OVER THE S U.S. UP THROUGH MN AND ONTARIO. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ONE ALTERNATE/WETTEST
SOLUTION IS THE 03/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...WHICH PAINTS A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA ALREADY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
LESS WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
CENTRAL AND E MN /AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM/. WILL KEEP THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...BUT ALSO ADD SOME
INLAND W THIRD CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
100-300J/KG CAPE VALUES AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES. PUT IN A QUICK 20
POP...BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT REMAINS DRY.

AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE THE RULE THURSDAY...AND PRIMARILY
OFF LAKE MI AND W UPPER MI ON FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPS A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE SHORELINES.

GIVEN THE DRY WEATHER...FIRE CONCERNS WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK INTO
THE WEATHER PICTURE. DOWNGRADED THE ELEVATED BACK TO LIMITED IN THE
EHWO FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL...AND CUT
BACK THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY GIVEN THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.

EXPECT THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SETTLE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
W UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SHIFTING E SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TRIALLING MAIN 500MB
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE STACKED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SWING
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE FCST. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIMITED AT THIS TIME...SO KEPT THEM
IN FOR ONLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE MAIN
FRONT...WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN SWEEP IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGERING FOR THE START OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CMX WITH STRONG WRLY WINDS WILL SUSTAIN SOME
MVFR CIGS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND
MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING CLEARING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO SAT AS SFC HIGH PRES GENERALLY DOMINATES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 149 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED VORT
MAX OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.
AT THE SFC...A TROUGH AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/CENTRAL UPPER MI FROM LOW PRES OVER ONTARIO NE
OF THE LAKE. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SCT SHRA ALONG THIS
TROUGH/FRONT AND THERE WAS EVEN AN ISOLD TSRA EARLIER THIS MORNING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE MUCAPES WERE STILL NEAR 500 J/KG.

TODAY...NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY MORE TSRA ALONG THE FRONT THIS
MORNING AS THE NCEP RAP MODEL SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY HAS MOVED EAST.
MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE
TIED TO MID-LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN THE
COMMA HEAD OF THE VORT MAX. EXPECT THE BEST CHC OF SHRA TO BE OVER
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO THE NE FCST
LATE THIS MORNING WITH MVMT OF THE VORT MAX AND ITS ASSOC COMMA
HEAD. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT REPORTED AT THE KIWD AWOS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS NEAR
25 KT THROUGH MIXED LAYER AND THE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NE FCST AREA FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS. GOOD
MID-LVL DRYING/CONFLUENCE AND Q-VECT DIVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
VORT MAX SHOULD PUT AN END TO MOST SHRA ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MODELS SNDGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 800 MB
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SCNTRL...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY WHERE A LONGER PD OF SUNSHINE COULD
PUSH READINGS INTO THE LOWER TO EVEN MID 70S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
ON MIN TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S...COOLEST OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR WHERE PWATS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND READINGS
COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND STRADDLING THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND UP TO HUDSON BAY. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
ROTATING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND
LOCATIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM A PARENT HIGH ON THE SOUTHWEST
SHORELINE OF HUDSON BAY WILL STRETCH SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST) WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE (50S TO
MID 60S...COOLEST EAST) WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PRODUCES LIGHT WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS WITH
RESPECT TO NORMAL AND HAVE LOWS OF LOW-MID 40S. WITH THE DRIER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT COULD ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. CURRENT THINKING IS RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS ARE STRONGER...BUT DRYING FROM
RECENT RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND NEAR 25
PERCENT AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL ALSO
BE LIGHTER AND LIMIT GROWTH IF FIRES OCCURRED. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINTS OF A
WEAK AND ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE DRY
RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BUT WILL
SHOW SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT ON THIS
IDEA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.

UPPER RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING EAST ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING. A COUPLE MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKING AT WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED
(GENERALLY WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MN ARROWHEAD)...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON PRECIP OCCURRING ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND
DRIER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...WHICH KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. WHERE THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IS WITH THE COUPLE
SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THAT OCCURS...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM A PARENT LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WILL USE THAT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THEN TREND TOWARDS DRY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CMX WITH STRONG WRLY WINDS WILL SUSTAIN SOME
MVFR CIGS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND
MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING CLEARING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH INCREASED MIXING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WNW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND COULD REACH NEAR 30 KTS OVER SCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO SAT AS SFC HIGH PRES GENERALLY
DOMINATES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 434 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Significant severe episode well underway although the vast majority
of the CWA is dry and will remain so until around sunset when the
upstream MCS/eventual Derecho presses into northern MO. Northern MO
remains under the highest threat for both severe storms as well as
flooding type rainfall. This due to the location of a nearly
stationary front draped across far northern MO and is depicted by
change in character of the cu field and surface obs. Small cluster
of severe storms tracking along the MO/IA border is being enhanced
by strong 0-6km shear of 50-65kts while the 0-1km shear around 20kts
is likely just not strong enough to support for tornadic activity.
However, these values will increase as evening approaches so any
additional storms which form ahead of the approaching MCS will have
a greater chance to spawn tornadoes. A look at the STJ hodograph for
this evening shows why. Impressive as is the MUCAPES of
3000-4000J/kg.

12Z ECMWF and HRRR appear to have best fit of evolution of the large
MCS and backbuilding convection now underway across northern NE.
Current radar trends and HRRR output surge the MCS southeast through
the north central and northeast CWA this evening while the
backbuilding convection over northern NE slides through northwest MO
and northeast KS with possibilities of reaching the KC Metro after
midnight. Current Flash Flood watch over northern MO looks on track.

Convection will finally exit the eastern CWA during the per-dawn
hours of Wednesday morning. A post-frontal cold front will trail and
eventually sweep through the CWA on Wednesday. The cold air
advection will lag allowing favorable mixing of the elevated warm layer
to mix down resulting in another very warm day. Could see highs
around 90 across the far southern CWA. Will keep slight chance PoPs
across this area as peak heating and some convergence along the
front could form isolated convection.

This front is not expected to move too far south of the CWA with the
very moist and unstable airmass poised to the south of the frontal
boundary. Models embed a number of weak shortwave troughs within
moderately strong westerlies crossing the Central Rockies and Central
Plains Wednesday night through Thursday night. In fact this pattern will
continue into the weekend. Elevated convection is the end result as
these shortwaves lift the unstable air above the boundary and
generate scattered convection. Could see a couple additional rounds of
convection. Temperatures will likely be a tad below average as we`ll
be under easterly flow from high pressure.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

A quasi-zonal pattern will remain quite active through the end of
the extended forecast period. A number of shortwave troughs will
translate through the flow and will bring a few chances for heavy
rainfall through the beginning of the weekend. One round of precip will
develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday morning. Another
convective complex will develop Friday and continue into Saturday
with the potential for more heavy rainfall as models forecasting
precipitable water values of 1 to over 2 inches across the general region
With the Gulf wide open, do not see any issues with moisture return
during this period, however, exact timing of these systems still
remains in question.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Isolated pop-up afternoon convection is possible from east central
KS through central MO but the risk of any one cell affecting the
terminals is too low to include in the forecast. Instead will focus
on the greater threat of convection this evening. A large convective
complex forming over eastern NE will track southeast and move across
northern MO this evening. Storms could build to the southwest and
reach into west central MO mid to late evening. VFR cigs will hold
with brief occurrence of MVFR cigs should storms reach KMCI/KMKC.
KSTJ has a much greater chance of seeing storms.

Light south to southeast winds will become gusty this evening as the
low level jet moves into the region. Winds will gradually veer to the
southwest in the morning and then to the northwest with the passage
of a cold front.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     015>017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...pmm
AVIATION...MJ








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 144 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ADD A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS
POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MT THROUGH 02 UTC
/8 PM MDT/. WIND SHEAR WILL STILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO HOW WELL
STORMS GET ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THE 18
UTC GLASGOW SOUNDING AND RECENT SPC...RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS SEEMS
TO SUGGEST JUST ENOUGH SHEAR IN EASTERN MT FOR SOME SEVERE THREAT.
SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS OVER THE
BILLINGS AREA LATE LAST EVENING CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND SUSTAIN
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT OF A LOW- LEVEL JET ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SATELLITE AND RADAR ALSO SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE THIS JET IS A BIT STRONGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS CARTER COUNTY BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AREA WILL EJECT A FEW DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING/SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY. A RETURN SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES. CAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG ACROSS THE WEST TO
1500J/KG ACROSS THE EAST COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONE INHIBITOR IS THAT WIND SHEAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE TODAY. THE HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BY NOON TODAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS
POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE POWDER
RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THAT AREA
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE NEARING AN
INCH.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND A COOL FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE LESS TOMORROW SO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS
ADVERTISING A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO FULL GREENUP AND RECENT RAINFALL.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER REGIME IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LIMITING SOLAR HEATING.
UPSLOPE ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
BEST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA SWINGS THROUGH. SATURDAY STAYS COOL AS
THE UPSLOPE REGIME REMAINS AT THE LOWER LEVELS BUT AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DRY OUT THE WESTERN ZONES.

PATTERN BECOMES DOMINATED BY WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT BETTER MIXING AND HAVE PASSING DISTURBANCES PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIME LATER ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY A DEEPER MORE DYNAMIC WAVE WILL APPROACH BUT TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. STORMS WILL BE MOST INTENSE EAST OF BILLINGS AND SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SOUTHEAST MONTANA THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD SEE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50KT. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 055/078 054/073 049/063 045/067 048/078 051/078
    4/T 43/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 075 043/075 042/071 042/063 040/066 043/077 044/077
    4/T 43/T    23/T    34/T    43/T    32/T    22/T
HDN 079 052/078 051/075 048/066 046/069 047/079 050/080
    4/T 43/T    23/T    33/T    44/T    32/T    22/T
MLS 077 055/079 055/075 048/065 047/068 047/078 051/079
    4/T 43/T    32/T    33/T    33/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 071 052/076 052/075 049/062 048/067 045/077 049/079
    4/T 43/T    32/T    34/T    55/T    32/T    22/T
BHK 073 052/076 051/073 047/061 045/064 044/072 048/075
    4/T 44/T    32/T    44/T    33/T    32/T    22/T
SHR 077 048/076 046/072 044/063 043/063 042/075 046/076
    4/T 43/T    23/T    34/T    55/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 36-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 219 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

LATEST ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATES THE PRIMARY
DISCERNABLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS SETTING UP FROM NW-SE ALONG A
LINE FROM LOUP CITY-GRAND ISLAND-YORK-BEATRICE. OVER THE LAST 2
HRS...WINDS S OF THIS LINE HAVE VEERED TO AROUND 160. THE CU FIELD
IS BECOME RATHER AGGITATED FROM GRAND ISLAND-HEBRON-BEATRICE.
UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO FORM. WE ARE ALSO SEEING CU BUBBLING
OVER LINCOLN COUNTY. THE HRRR CONTS TO INSIST ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

ALOFT: THE SHORTWAVE TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT
WILL DEPART FOR THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT TROF IS ALREADY MOVING ONTO
THE W COAST AND WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES BY TOMORROW EVENING.

SURFACE: LEE CYCLOGENESIS WAS IN PROGRESS. THIS LOW WILL HEAD E
ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER TONIGHT AND HEAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TOMORROW. IN ITS TAKE...THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY BISECTS NEB WILL
SAG S INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND BECOME STATIONARY. WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: WE EXPECT SEVERAL CLASSIC SUPERCELLS TO
FORM OVER S-CNTRL NEB. GIVEN THE MODERATE-HIGH INSTABILITY...
MLCAPE UP TO 3500 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR...AND SUFFICIENT TO
SIGNIFICANT 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM SRH...HIGH-END SEVERE WX IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE SUPERCELLS.

REMEMBER...THESE STORMS WILL NOT FORM EVERYWHERE. JUST BE AWARE
THAT IF A THUNDERSTORM FORMS IN YOUR VICINITY...HAVE A PLAN FOR
WHERE YOU WILL TAKE SHELTER AND BE READY FOR THREATENING WX.

CONT TO FOLLOW ALL WATCHES/WARNINGS FROM THIS OFFICE REGARDING
SEVERE WX.

TONIGHT: WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR N-CNTRL KS FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. OTHERWISE...TSTMS WILL
EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 10 PM.

WED: QUIET AND DRY. TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH WITH THE WINDS DURING THE MORNING. INITIAL MIXING MAY BRING
DOWN HIGHER WINDS FORENOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

DUE TO THE MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WX THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
FOREGO THE EXTENDED DISC.

OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR COOLER TEMPS...POSSIBLY WITH ONE DAY OF
MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS /10F OR MORE/. SUNDAY HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE
TO REACH 70F.

MULTIPLE LOW CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE "BEST"
CHANCE WILL BE FRI NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT WE HAVE
SEEN SINCE MID MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW-END VFR 19Z-20Z AND
THEN WE SHOULD LOSE THE CIGS. ISOLATED IFR TSTMS WILL DEVELOP. NO
GUARANTEES THEY HIT THE TERMINAL. SO THE TAF IS CONSERVATIVE FOR
NOW BUT WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS. SE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTY.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: TSTM THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 02Z-03Z LEAVING VFR. A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU 07Z-09Z AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR
STRATUS CIGS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO NW. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED THRU 18Z: MVFR STRATUS SHOULD LAST THRU MOST OF THE MORNING
WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BECOMING VFR AROUND 5K FT 17Z-19Z.
NW WINDS AVERAGE 15 KTS...BUT COULD BE GUSTY 12Z-15Z AS INITIAL
MIXING COMMENCES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1211 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

HAVE SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST UPDATE. FCST TEMP CURVES ARE
RUNNING TOO WARM N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SO TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT 4 HRS. THE WIND FCST IS NOW LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE NOT AWARE OF. HIGH TEMPS OVER N-CNTRL KS MAY ALSO NEED TO BE
LOWERED DEPENDENT UPON THE SWD EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
SATELLITE SUGGESTS MIXING NEAR THE KS-NEB BORDER IS SLOWING AND/OR
ERODING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW. THAT COULD KEEP OUR
TEMP/WIND FCST IN GOOD SHAPE OVER N-CNTRL KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD CERTAINLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NORTHEAST OF A
GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE. LESS FORCING AND A GREATER
CAP SHOULD DECREASE THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS YOU HEAD SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE EVEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD STORMS
FORM...JUST THE LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING THE STORMS TO INITIATE IS
LOWER OVER THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGH END SEVERE WORDING OF DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES ...HAIL OF BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH.

THE BIG QUESTIONS RELATED TO HOW SEVERE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT TODAY
CENTER AROUND WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP...AND HOW ONGOING
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE MORE VOLATILE AFTERNOON STORMS. THE 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND
00Z ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LATE AFTERNOON
WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND ORD TO FULLERTON
OR MAYBE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE WRF
MODELS AND EARLY RUNS OF THE RUC PLACE THE WARM FRONT EVEN FURTHER
NORTH TO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE. THE CONVECTIVE QPF IS
VERY SIMILAR AMONG THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC (MODELS...NAM... GFS...
ECMWF) WHICH FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTHEAST
OF THAT EARLIER MENTIONED GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE.
SOME WRF MODELS KEEP OUR ENTIRE CWA DRY WITH ALL THE CONVECTION
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE WRF MODELS INDICATE AND THUS COULD VERY EASILY
SEE THE WARM FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS MORNING
CONVECTION AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
MODELS.

WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TODAY BASED ON
ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
MID MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS PROBABLE COULD KEEP THE
WARM FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE MODELS
THAT KEEP THE WARM FRONT OVER OUR NORTHER FORECAST AREA AND MAY ALSO
LEAVE BEHIND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BECOME ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
OVER THE SANDHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS OF 4 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH
AS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6. THESE SOUTHERN STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A CAP AND LESS
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE. THE 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE BY EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 75
KTS RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OF 25 TO 30 KTS IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-
3000 J/KG ALSO SEEM REASONABLE. THE FORCING WILL BE THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDEAL TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO BE WEATHER AWARE
TODAY AND KEEP IN TUNE WITH THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS YOU
GO ABOUT YOUR DAY.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS LEADING TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
TIME. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY EARLIER THAN THAT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRICKY PART
IS GETTING THE TIMING DOWN ON THE WAVES. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE FEW DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. A SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
MODEL DIFFERENCE COMES FOR MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING AN UPPER WAVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE WAVE THAN THE
GFS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW-END VFR 19Z-20Z AND
THEN WE SHOULD LOSE THE CIGS. ISOLATED IFR TSTMS WILL DEVELOP. NO
GUARANTEES THEY HIT THE TERMINAL. SO THE TAF IS CONSERVATIVE FOR
NOW BUT WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS. SE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTY.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: TSTM THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 02Z-03Z LEAVING VFR. A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU 07Z-09Z AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR
STRATUS CIGS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO NW. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED THRU 18Z: MVFR STRATUS SHOULD LAST THRU MOST OF THE MORNING
WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BECOMING VFR AROUND 5K FT 17Z-19Z.
NW WINDS AVERAGE 15 KTS...BUT COULD BE GUSTY 12Z-15Z AS INITIAL
MIXING COMMENCES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1126 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX OUTBREAK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON-EVE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

HAVE SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST UPDATE. FCST TEMP CURVES ARE
RUNNING TOO WARM N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SO TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT 4 HRS. THE WIND FCST IS NOW LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE NOT AWARE OF. HIGH TEMPS OVER N-CNTRL KS MAY ALSO NEED TO BE
LOWERED DEPENDENT UPON THE SWD EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
SATELLITE SUGGESTS MIXING NEAR THE KS-NEB BORDER IS SLOWING AND/OR
ERODING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW. THAT COULD KEEP OUR
TEMP/WIND FCST IN GOOD SHAPE OVER N-CNTRL KS.

&&

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. ALL TSTM ACTIVITY
HAS MOVED E AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE
HWY 6 CORRIDOR AND HEADED FOR THE KS-NEB BORDER. UNSURE HOW FAR S
THAT IT SAGS BUT IT CURRENTLY HAS PRETTY GOOD MOMENTUM. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED...RESULTING
IN VERY LARGE CURVATURE TO LOCAL HODOGRAPHS.

WE HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE SPC AND PLAN TO HAVE THE SRN END OF
THE MDT RISK EXTENDED BACK SWD TO NEAR HWY 6. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER S AS THE SFC LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK E ALONG THE
KS-NEB BORDER. THIS COMPLICATES THE FCST AND LOCATION OF THE
DRYLINE-OUTFLOW TRIPLE PT.

THE 13Z HRRR LOOKS HOW WE THINK THINGS WILL EVOLVE...VERY
THREATENING. 2 TO 4 CLASSIC SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER S-CNTRL
NEB 4-5 PM...THEN POSSIBLE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT 6-8 PM.

AS THE NIGHT SHIFT MENTIONED...EVERYONE WILL NOT SEE SEVERE WX
TODAY. IN FACT...WE MAY ONLY SEE A SMALL NUMBER OF STORMS DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE THE HIGH-END SEVERE WX
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING.

09Z SREF SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SIG TOR PARAMETER WILL ALSO BE EXCESSIVE.

THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR IN SUCH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN STRONG MESOCYCLONES. THUS THE REASON FOR THE ENHANCED
RISK OF TORNADOES AND EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD CERTAINLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NORTHEAST OF A
GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE. LESS FORCING AND A GREATER
CAP SHOULD DECREASE THE PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS YOU HEAD SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE EVEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD STORMS
FORM...JUST THE LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING THE STORMS TO INITIATE IS
LOWER OVER THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGH END SEVERE WORDING OF DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES ...HAIL OF BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH.

THE BIG QUESTIONS RELATED TO HOW SEVERE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT TODAY
CENTER AROUND WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP...AND HOW ONGOING
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE MORE VOLATILE AFTERNOON STORMS. THE 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND
00Z ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LATE AFTERNOON
WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND ORD TO FULLERTON
OR MAYBE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE WRF
MODELS AND EARLY RUNS OF THE RUC PLACE THE WARM FRONT EVEN FURTHER
NORTH TO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE. THE CONVECTIVE QPF IS
VERY SIMILAR AMONG THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC (MODELS...NAM... GFS...
ECMWF) WHICH FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON NORTHEAST
OF THAT EARLIER MENTIONED GENEVA...GRAND ISLAND...LOUP CITY LINE.
SOME WRF MODELS KEEP OUR ENTIRE CWA DRY WITH ALL THE CONVECTION
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE WRF MODELS INDICATE AND THUS COULD VERY EASILY
SEE THE WARM FRONT BEING HELD FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS MORNING
CONVECTION AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAJOR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
MODELS.

WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR TODAY BASED ON
ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
MID MORNING PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS MORNING CONVECTION
IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS PROBABLE COULD KEEP THE
WARM FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE MODELS
THAT KEEP THE WARM FRONT OVER OUR NORTHER FORECAST AREA AND MAY ALSO
LEAVE BEHIND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BECOME ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
OVER THE SANDHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOURS OF 4 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH
AS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6. THESE SOUTHERN STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A CAP AND LESS
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE. THE 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE BY EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 75
KTS RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OF 25 TO 30 KTS IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-
3000 J/KG ALSO SEEM REASONABLE. THE FORCING WILL BE THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDEAL TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO BE WEATHER AWARE
TODAY AND KEEP IN TUNE WITH THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS YOU
GO ABOUT YOUR DAY.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS LEADING TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
TIME. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY EARLIER THAN THAT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRICKY PART
IS GETTING THE TIMING DOWN ON THE WAVES. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE FEW DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES. A SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
MODEL DIFFERENCE COMES FOR MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING AN UPPER WAVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE WAVE THAN THE
GFS. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KGRI
TERMINAL AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT IT AS
VCTS UNTIL THE TIMING IS BETTER.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
MESOSCALE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 1124 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. CONSISTENT STREAM OF HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
HAZARD. LOOK FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KT AT TIMES AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OR
LOWER ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN. SOME OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MIXING
LEADING TO THE STRONG WIND FLOW WILL REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY THE
CIRRUS CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING AWW SPEEDS AT ABQ AT THIS TIME.

50

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO AN
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
TEXAS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD VALUES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE
LATER TODAY...WITH BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST...THEN
REAPPEAR WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BACKS DOWN A BIT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RESULTING IN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SHIFT/INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND LIKELY TEMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN 1-3 DEGREES FROM
UPWARD POTENTIAL. THAT SAID...WE`RE STILL FORECASTING RECORD OR
NEAR-RECORD HIGHS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA TODAY. THE RECORD
HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS EXTEND INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...SO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS GETTING JUICY. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN QPF FROM BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 05Z
HRRR...WITH THE DRYLINE BEING THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION. THE 00Z
NAM12 AND 05Z HRRR SHOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE...BUT WITH A CAPPING
INVERSION. THE NAM ALMOST COMPLETELY ERODES THE CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG THE DRYLINE BETWEEN 21-00Z. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING OUT EAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG
WINDS GUSTS GIVEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES. A FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE 00Z GFS NEAR SANTA ROSA
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH AN INVERTED-V LOOK BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE BEST CLOSER TO THE
TEXAS BORDER...BUT THEN EXPAND WEST TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO ANOTHER BACKDOOR PUSH.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH THE DRYLINE SLOSHING
BACK-AND-FORTH...THEN ANOTHER BACKDOOR PUSH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. VERY WARM AND
UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AS THE FOCUS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. VERY DRY AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY WEST...WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL DETERMINE RED FLAG COVERAGE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTER BARELY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DESPITE THE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO...COURTESY OF TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
COAST...SATELLITE PW PRODUCTS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY
ATMOSPHERE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MAINTAINING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WITH AN EXTREME WEST TO EAST CONTRAST...RH RECOVERS WILL BE POOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WESTERN ZONES BUT GOOD ACROSS THE EAST.

A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL INCREASE
GRADIENTS ENOUGH TODAY FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOST AREAS AND ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST.
ACROSS THE WEST...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT SUPER HAINES CONDITIONS THERE INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT THERE. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS WITH MOST AREAS
AFFECTED EXCEPT THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE POOR WEST AND
MOSTLY FAIR EAST WITH GOOD VALUES TO LIMITED TO THE EXTREME EASTERN
PLAINS.

THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ON WEDNESDAY USHERING IN MORE DRY AIR BUT
WINDS ALOFT DECREASE A BIT AND EVEN WITH CONTINUED DEEP MIXING IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOST
LOCATIONS. STILL VERY WARM AND DRY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY AFTERNOON. SUPER
HAINES CONDITIONS AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
WEST BY AFTERNOON. RH TO BE SINGLE DIGIT MOST AREAS EXCEPT EXTREME
EAST. HELD OFF ON A RED FLAG WATCH BUT CERTAINLY WEDNESDAY NEEDS TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

MORE OF THE SAME THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND THE
PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS...VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WEST AND MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
BACK DOOR FRONT THUS LIMITING MOISTURE INCREASES EAST. ONCE
AGAIN...ONLY WINDS WILL LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
ALL OTHER INGREDIENTS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE.

THE TROUGH FINALLY MAKES SUFFICIENT PROGRESS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
TO INITIATE VERY MODEST COOLING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A MORE VIGOROUS BACK DOOR FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EAST WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN AND GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. STILL VERY DRY WEST HOWEVER.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 407 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
AREA IS SANDWICHED IN BTWN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF AXIS ALONG THE
HUDSON VLY AND A CDFNT TO THE WEST OF LK ERIE. THIS HAS LEAD TO A
JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DWPTS IN THE
60S, LEADING TO MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODIFIED 12Z RAOB OUT OF KBUF.

INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS DVLPD JUST AHEAD OF H7 WV AND IS PUSHING
THRU I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE PUSHING
EAST TAKING LKLY POPS WITH IT AND EXITING CWA AFT 22Z. ANOTHER AREA
OF STORMS HAS DVLPD ACRS WRN NY ALONG BNDRY AND LATEST HRRR HAS THIS
ENTERING WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTN, THUS HV MAINTAINED CHC POPS TO
ACCT FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN DVLP.

FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT WITH MOISTURE DRYING UP
QUICKLY BHND BNDRY. THUS WL KEEP ISOLD SHOWER MENTION IMMEDIATELY
ALONG CDFNT WITH CLRNG SKIES EXPECTED BHND.

DWPTS DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING FROPA, POSSIBLY INTO THE U40S ACRS
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. THIS WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP
DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES FOR THE OVRNGT, THO THEY MAY RUN A DEGREE OR
TWO ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. SKIES WL START OFF
AS MOSTLY SUNNY BUT WL BEGIN TO CLD UP AS NEXT WV HDS IN FM THE
MIDWEST. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 70S DRG THE DAY.
POPS INCREASE FM THE WEST BY 00Z WITH MEASURABLE PCPN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.

RAIN WL MV IN BTWN 00Z AND 03Z THURSDAY AND MAY BCM HVY AT TIMES.
SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST REGARDING HOW HIGH PW VALUES
MAY GET AND WHERE THE INFLOW WL FOCUS (IE WHERE THE LLJ WL LINE UP).
GFS SHUNTS THE LLJ FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE NAM NOSES IT UP INTO
THE SERN ZONES WHEREAS EURO KEEPS IT CONFINED CLOSER TO NY BIGHT. HV
INCLUDED LKLY POPS TO GNRLY SOUTH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND INCLUDED CHC FOR THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-84.

COOLER AIR WL BE PULLED IN ON NRLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. UL TROF WL
SWING THRU THE AREA DRG THE DAY WITH JUST SLGT CHC-CHC SHOWERS AS
UPR LVL COLD POOL ROTATES THRU. QUIET WX CONTS THRU THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FRIDAY MORNING UPPR LVL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS SCENARIO WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SAT WILL BE NICE AND DRY. SAT NIGHT
AN UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE WILL START TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NY SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND LAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE MID LVL THETA-E RIDGE WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING AND THE CHANCE TSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH... BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY. MONDAY NIGHT SFC RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY BEFORE A FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS DECREASING
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND AS WELL. RANGING IN UPPR 40S/LOW
50S SAT MORNING INCREASING TO THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY... PRIOR TO
THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON
THAT FIRED UP ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
MVFR CIGS. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
BECOME VFR LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH ON THUNDER... THUS JUST DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING DRIER AIR RESULTING IN CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MVFR CIG DECK MAY FOLLOW
BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FROPA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
PLACE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS.

WED...VFR.

THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.

FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 329 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
AREA IS SANDWICHED IN BTWN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF AXIS ALONG THE
HUDSON VLY AND A CDFNT TO THE WEST OF LK ERIE. THIS HAS LEAD TO A
JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DWPTS IN THE
60S, LEADING TO MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODIFIED 12Z RAOB OUT OF KBUF.

INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS DVLPD JUST AHEAD OF H7 WV AND IS PUSHING
THRU I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE PUSHING
EAST TAKING LKLY POPS WITH IT AND EXITING CWA AFT 22Z. ANOTHER AREA
OF STORMS HAS DVLPD ACRS WRN NY ALONG BNDRY AND LATEST HRRR HAS THIS
ENTERING WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTN, THUS HV MAINTAINED CHC POPS TO
ACCT FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN DVLP.

FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT WITH MOISTURE DRYING UP
QUICKLY BHND BNDRY. THUS WL KEEP ISOLD SHOWER MENTION IMMEDIATELY
ALONG CDFNT WITH CLRNG SKIES EXPECTED BHND.

DWPTS DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING FROPA, POSSIBLY INTO THE U40S ACRS
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. THIS WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP
DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES FOR THE OVRNGT, THO THEY MAY RUN A DEGREE OR
TWO ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. SKIES WL START OFF
AS MOSTLY SUNNY BUT WL BEGIN TO CLD UP AS NEXT WV HDS IN FM THE
MIDWEST. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 70S DRG THE DAY.
POPS INCREASE FM THE WEST BY 00Z WITH MEASURABLE PCPN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.

RAIN WL MV IN BTWN 00Z AND 03Z THURSDAY AND MAY BCM HVY AT TIMES.
SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST REGARDING HOW HIGH PW VALUES
MAY GET AND WHERE THE INFLOW WL FOCUS (IE WHERE THE LLJ WL LINE UP).
GFS SHUNTS THE LLJ FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE NAM NOSES IT UP INTO
THE SERN ZONES WHEREAS EURO KEEPS IT CONFINED CLOSER TO NY BIGHT. HV
INCLUDED LKLY POPS TO GNRLY SOUTH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND INCLUDED CHC FOR THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-84.

COOLER AIR WL BE PULLED IN ON NRLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. UL TROF WL
SWING THRU THE AREA DRG THE DAY WITH JUST SLGT CHC-CHC SHOWERS AS
UPR LVL COLD POOL ROTATES THRU. QUIET WX CONTS THRU THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD INTO THE RGN ON
FRI...MOVG OFF THE CST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND FOR CNTRL
NY AND NE PA. APRCHNG WMFNT MAY BRING A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA ACRS WRN
ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN. JUST SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG FCST
BASED ON LATEST MDL TRENDS/HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON
THAT FIRED UP ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND IN ITS WAKE WILL BE MVFR
CIGS. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
BECOME VFR LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THUNDER... THUS JUST DECIDED TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR RESULTING IN CONDITIONS REMAINING
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MVFR CIG DECK MAY
FOLLOW BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FROPA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS.

WED...VFR.

THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.

FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...KAH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 326 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
AREA IS SANDWICHED IN BTWN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF AXIS ALONG THE
HUDSON VLY AND A CDFNT TO THE WEST OF LK ERIE. THIS HAS LEAD TO A
JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DWPTS IN THE
60S, LEADING TO MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODIFIED 12Z RAOB OUT OF KBUF.

INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS DVLPD JUST AHEAD OF H7 WV AND IS PUSHING
THRU I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE PUSHING
EAST TAKING LKLY POPS WITH IT AND EXITING CWA AFT 22Z. ANOTHER AREA
OF STORMS HAS DVLPD ACRS WRN NY ALONG BNDRY AND LATEST HRRR HAS THIS
ENTERING WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTN, THUS HV MAINTAINED CHC POPS TO
ACCT FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN DVLP.

FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT WITH MOISTURE DRYING UP
QUICKLY BHND BNDRY. THUS WL KEEP ISOLD SHOWER MENTION IMMEDIATELY
ALONG CDFNT WITH CLRNG SKIES EXPECTED BHND.

DWPTS DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING FROPA, POSSIBLY INTO THE U40S ACRS
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. THIS WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP
DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES FOR THE OVRNGT, THO THEY MAY RUN A DEGREE OR
TWO ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. SKIES WL START OFF
AS MOSTLY SUNNY BUT WL BEGIN TO CLD UP AS NEXT WV HDS IN FM THE
MIDWEST. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 70S DRG THE DAY.
POPS INCREASE FM THE WEST BY 00Z WITH MEASURABLE PCPN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.

RAIN WL MV IN BTWN 00Z AND 03Z THURSDAY AND MAY BCM HVY AT TIMES.
SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST REGARDING HOW HIGH PW VALUES
MAY GET AND WHERE THE INFLOW WL FOCUS (IE WHERE THE LLJ WL LINE UP).
GFS SHUNTS THE LLJ FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE NAM NOSES IT UP INTO
THE SERN ZONES WHEREAS EURO KEEPS IT CONFINED CLOSER TO NY BIGHT. HV
INCLUDED LKLY POPS TO GNRLY SOUTH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND INCLUDED CHC FOR THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-84.

COOLER AIR WL BE PULLED IN ON NRLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. UL TROF WL
SWING THRU THE AREA DRG THE DAY WITH JUST SLGT CHC-CHC SHOWERS AS
UPR LVL COLD POOL ROTATES THRU. QUIET WX CONTS THRU THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD INTO THE RGN ON
FRI...MOVG OFF THE CST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND FOR CNTRL
NY AND NE PA. APRCHNG WMFNT MAY BRING A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA ACRS WRN
ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN. JUST SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG FCST
BASED ON LATEST MDL TRENDS/HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON
THAT FIRED UP ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND IN ITS WAKE WILL BE MVFR
CIGS. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
BECOME VFR LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THUNDER... THUS JUST DECIDED TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR RESULTING IN CONDITIONS REMAINING
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MVFR CIG DECK MAY
FOLLOW BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FROPA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS.

WED...VFR.

THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.

FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...RHB
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...KAH






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 152 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...THEN
DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
150 PM UPDATE...
AREA IS SANDWICHED IN BTWN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF AXIS ALONG THE
HUDSON VLY AND A CDFNT TO THE WEST OF LK ERIE. THIS HAS LEAD TO A
JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DWPTS IN THE
60S, LEADING TO MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODIFIED 12Z RAOB OUT OF KBUF.

INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS DVLPD JUST AHEAD OF H7 WV AND IS PUSHING
THRU I-81 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE PUSHING
EAST TAKING LKLY POPS WITH IT AND EXITING CWA AFT 22Z. ANOTHER AREA
OF STORMS HAS DVLPD ACRS WRN NY ALONG BNDRY AND LATEST HRRR HAS THIS
ENTERING WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTN, THUS HV MAINTAINED CHC POPS TO
ACCT FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN DVLP.

FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT WITH MOISTURE DRYING UP
QUICKLY BHND BNDRY. THUS WL KEEP ISOLD SHOWER MENTION IMMEDIATELY
ALONG CDFNT WITH CLRNG SKIES EXPECTED BHND.

DWPTS DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING FROPA, POSSIBLY INTO THE U40S ACRS
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. THIS WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP
DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES FOR THE OVRNGT, THO THEY MAY RUN A DEGREE OR
TWO ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE L/M 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME NOMINAL POPS FOR
ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT IN THIS
TYPE PATTERN THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OFTEN NOT THE ACTIVE
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH MODEL RH FIELDS AND INDIVIDUAL SOUNDING
FORECASTS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DRYING. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS
TO SPEED UP THE DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT WITH A RAIN FREE DAY EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

THEN...MAIN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE VARYING
DIFFERENCES IN THESE SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO FOCUS MOST OF
ANY RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...HOWEVER THE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS LENDS ITSELF TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW A GRADIENT OF MID-RANGE POPS ACROSS OUR AREA...AS THE NAM
AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A FAIRLY DAMP PERIOD LATER WEDS NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTH AND SUGGESTS THE
SYR-UCA MIGHT EVEN MISS OUT COMPLETELY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
RULE ANYTHING OUT...AND TOO MUCH TO ALSO GO GANGBUSTERS WITH HIGH
POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE`S MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST EVERYWHERE...SO WAITING ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR SO TO
REFINE WHO GETS DRENCHED IS PRUDENT ATTM.

WE SHOULD GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS TO
TAKE HOLD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL 2M TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD INTO THE RGN ON
FRI...MOVG OFF THE CST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND FOR CNTRL
NY AND NE PA. APRCHNG WMFNT MAY BRING A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA ACRS WRN
ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN. JUST SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG FCST
BASED ON LATEST MDL TRENDS/HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON
THAT FIRED UP ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND IN ITS WAKE WILL BE MVFR
CIGS. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
BECOME VFR LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THUNDER... THUS JUST DECIDED TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR RESULTING IN CONDITIONS REMAINING
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MVFR CIG DECK MAY
FOLLOW BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FROPA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS.

WED...VFR.

THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.

FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...KAH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 151 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...THEN
DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS HV ENTERED INTO WRN ZONES AT THIS TIME AND WITH SLOWER
MVMNT EXPECTED HV DELAYED POPS THRU CWA BY AN HR OR TWO WITH LKLY
POPS NOT MVG INTO I-81 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO 17Z. QUESTION WL BE HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WL BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTN WITH BREAKS
IN CLDS ACRS ERN ZONE WHILE WEST RMNS SOCKED IN. WITH TEMPS
ALREADY INTO THE 80S ACRS NRN ZONES AND DWPTS IN THE MID-60S
APPEARS THAT PLENTY OF CAPE EXISTS ALREADY TO SPARK CONVECTION.

12Z RAOB FM KBUF IS EXTREMELY MOIST WITH PW VALUES OF 1.52 INCHES
AND WARM CLD DEPTHS WELL OVR 10KFT. EXPECT ANONYMOUSLY HIGH PW
VALUES PER TPW IMAGE TO MV INTO CWA DRG THE AFTN HRS AND WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND SMALL CORFIDI VECTORS INTENSE HVY RAINFALL
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR TDA.

LATEST HRRR BRINGS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION INTO WRN CWA BY 16Z
THEN MVG EWRD WITH TIME BISECTING CWA BY 18Z AND THEN EAST FM
THERE. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GTLKS REGION
WILL SWING A PRE-FRONTAL TROF INTO CNY/NEPA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
SYSTEM DYNAMICS WILL BE AT PLAY ALONG THE LEADING TROF TODAY.
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS ABOUT TO ENTER WRN NY AND WRN PA EARLY
THIS MORNING. MODELS...ESPECIALLY SMALLER SCALE MESO MODELS...HAVE
VERY GOOD TIMING TRENDS...AND SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z TODAY. THIS WAS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA TODAY...AS
MID LVL CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIMIT THE NECESSARY SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT ALLOW TIME FOR HEATING IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MARGINAL AND SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. OF
SOMEWHAT GREATER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIAL...AS PWAT
VALUES ARE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND WIND FIELDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
ALOFT. MBE VECTORS ARE ALSO SMALL...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE LESS
THAN IDEAL AND OVERALL SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...SO NOT WORRIED
ABOUT FLASH FLOODING...BUT ANY HEALTHY THUNDERSTORM COULD RAIN
HARD FOR A WHILE. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...WITH
THE IDEA THAT STORMS IN URBAN AREAS WILL GARNER THE MOST
ATTENTION.

TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL LIKELY ABLE TO
REACH THE LOW 80S. NOT EXPECTING A SMOOTH TEMPERATURE CURVE TODAY
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAXES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ROCKET AFTER THE RAIN AND CLOUDS PASS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME NOMINAL POPS FOR
ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT IN THIS
TYPE PATTERN THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OFTEN NOT THE ACTIVE
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH MODEL RH FIELDS AND INDIVIDUAL SOUNDING
FORECASTS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DRYING. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS
TO SPEED UP THE DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT WITH A RAIN FREE DAY EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

THEN...MAIN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE VARYING
DIFFERENCES IN THESE SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO FOCUS MOST OF
ANY RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...HOWEVER THE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS LENDS ITSELF TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW A GRADIENT OF MID-RANGE POPS ACROSS OUR AREA...AS THE NAM
AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A FAIRLY DAMP PERIOD LATER WEDS NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTH AND SUGGESTS THE
SYR-UCA MIGHT EVEN MISS OUT COMPLETELY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
RULE ANYTHING OUT...AND TOO MUCH TO ALSO GO GANGBUSTERS WITH HIGH
POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE`S MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST EVERYWHERE...SO WAITING ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR SO TO
REFINE WHO GETS DRENCHED IS PRUDENT ATTM.

WE SHOULD GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS TO
TAKE HOLD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL 2M TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD INTO THE RGN ON
FRI...MOVG OFF THE CST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND FOR CNTRL
NY AND NE PA. APRCHNG WMFNT MAY BRING A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA ACRS WRN
ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN. JUST SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG FCST
BASED ON LATEST MDL TRENDS/HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON
THAT FIRED UP ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND IN ITS WAKE WILL BE MVFR
CIGS. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
BECOME VFR LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THUNDER... THUS JUST DECIDED TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR RESULTING IN CONDITIONS REMAINING
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MVFR CIG DECK MAY
FOLLOW BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FROPA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS.

WED...VFR.

THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.

FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...KAH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 143 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM,
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THEN A DRYING
TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1236 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE TO SYNC
GRIDDED DATABASE UP TO THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SHOWER BAND WE`VE BEEN WATCHING ALL ORNING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
IS BACK WELL TO THE WEST INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT A SMALL
ROGUE THUNDERSTORM DID FIRE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
JUST NORTH OF RUTLAND. 2 FLASHES OF LIGHTNING WERE DETECTED.
LATEST RAP SHOWS ROUGHLY 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN NY
WHICH IS THE SOURCE FOR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK, SO ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED. WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, HAIL IS ALSO QUITE UNLIKELY.
IT`S STILL LOOKING LIKE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT, AND HAVE
MAINTAINED THAT IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THE HI-RES MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. BASICALLY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN THANKS TO SOME INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE BAND WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD,
REACHING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ABOUT 4-5PM AND THEN INTO EASTERN
VERMONT ABOUT 6-8PM.

WITHIN THE BAND, THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST, AND WE
COULD SEE SOME "TRAINING" (SEVERAL CELLS GOING OVER THE SAME
TRACK) AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

THERE IS SOME HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS THE BAND REACHES THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS, WE WILL SEE A FLARE UP IN THE PRECIPITATION
RATES/AMOUNTS FOR A SHORT TIME. LOOKS TO BE A COMBINATION OF SOME
MOUNTAIN BLOCKING AND SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WE COULD SEE SOME EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES SET UP.
AND IF WE ARE TO HAVE ANY HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS, THAT COULD BE
THE AREA.

AS THE BAND MOVES EAST, INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS
EAST OF THE GREENS WE`VE GOT SOME INFLUENCE OF AN ATLANTIC BASED
AIRMASS. RAP GUIDANCE INSTABILITY CHARTS SHOW THIS PRETTY CLEARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS. LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EASTERN VERMONT
THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT AND THEN POPS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST
DURING EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COLD POOL ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS IN HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY...THEN CHANCE
POPS MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY WITH LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH MOIST AIR AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH/LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
40S/50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S. QUIETER AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN. IT`S LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER GORGEOUS
WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. IN FACT...MEAN 925MB TEMPS NEAR +20C SUNDAY SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD 80S WITH THE VALLEY LOCALES POSSIBLY
PUSHING NEAR 90! UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. GOOD BET FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION AND
THEN SOME BRIEF MVFR AGAIN IN SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS/FOG/BR OVERNIGHT. MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 18Z AT MSS
TO 21Z-01Z AT BTV TO 23Z-03Z AT MPV. THESE WILL LAST A FEW
HOURS...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL LAST
CONSIDERABLY LESS. AFTER MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...A
SECOND ROUND OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LINGERING
THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
SOME LOWER CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
SHOWERS/STORMS AND THIS MAY TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO SLK/BTV/RUT/MPV FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME CLEARING WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/BR TO DEVELOP AT MSS/SLK...BUT 10-20
KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS TOWARDS THE REGION.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT MSS/PBG/BTV.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 10G20KT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS
BY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 419 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ON THE LAKE
TODAY, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE
STRONGER TODAY AS SURFACE FRONT DRAWS NEAR...AND EXPECT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...AND LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. RADAR BASED WINDS SHOWING WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE IN 25-30KT RANGE WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
FACTOR ON THE LAKE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1047 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE CEILOMETER AT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND (KRUT)-SOUTHERN
VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN OUT OF SERVICE SINCE MAY 29TH AT
0215Z. THUS...THIS SITE IS NOT REPORTING SKY COVER AT THIS TIME.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE
FAA AOCC THAT PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO FIX THE CEILOMETER. THERE IS
NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE CEILOMETER WILL
BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WGH








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 1257 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM,
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO THEIR SEASONAL NORMALS. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THEN A DRYING
TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1236 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE TO SYNC
GRIDDED DATABASE UP TO THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SHOWER BAND WE`VE BEEN WATCHING ALL ORNING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
IS BACK WELL TO THE WEST INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT A SMALL
ROGUE THUNDERSTORM DID FIRE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
JUST NORTH OF RUTLAND. 2 FLASHES OF LIGHTNING WERE DETECTED.
LATEST RAP SHOWS ROUGHLY 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN NY
WHICH IS THE SOURCE FOR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK, SO ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED. WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, HAIL IS ALSO QUITE UNLIKELY.
IT`S STILL LOOKING LIKE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT, AND HAVE
MAINTAINED THAT IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THE HI-RES MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. BASICALLY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN THANKS TO SOME INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE BAND WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD,
REACHING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ABOUT 4-5PM AND THEN INTO EASTERN
VERMONT ABOUT 6-8PM.

WITHIN THE BAND, THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST, AND WE
COULD SEE SOME "TRAINING" (SEVERAL CELLS GOING OVER THE SAME
TRACK) AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

THERE IS SOME HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AS THE BAND REACHES THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS, WE WILL SEE A FLARE UP IN THE PRECIPITATION
RATES/AMOUNTS FOR A SHORT TIME. LOOKS TO BE A COMBINATION OF SOME
MOUNTAIN BLOCKING AND SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WE COULD SEE SOME EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES SET UP.
AND IF WE ARE TO HAVE ANY HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS, THAT COULD BE
THE AREA.

AS THE BAND MOVES EAST, INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS
EAST OF THE GREENS WE`VE GOT SOME INFLUENCE OF AN ATLANTIC BASED
AIRMASS. RAP GUIDANCE INSTABILITY CHARTS SHOW THIS PRETTY CLEARLY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS. LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EASTERN VERMONT
THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT AND THEN POPS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST
DURING EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COLD POOL ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS IN HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY...THEN CHANCE
POPS MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY WITH LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH MOIST AIR AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH/LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
40S/50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S. QUIETER AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN. IT`S LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER GORGEOUS
WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. IN FACT...MEAN 925MB TEMPS NEAR +20C SUNDAY SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD 80S WITH THE VALLEY LOCALES POSSIBLY
PUSHING NEAR 90! UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. GOOD BET FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
SHOULD SEE TSRA ACTIVITY SPARK UP AROUND 15-16Z AT KMSS...PROGRESSING
EASTWARD TO KSLK 17-18Z...KPBG/KBTV 20-21Z AND KRUT/KMPV 22-23Z.
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS AT EACH SITE BEFORE ENDING AND
TRENDING TOWARDS SKC AFTER 07-08Z AT KMSS/KSLK...AND SCT ELSEWHERE.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR BR AT KSLK AFTER 08Z...BUT ENOUGH WIND IN THE LOW
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 00Z SAT...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 419 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ON THE LAKE
TODAY, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE
STRONGER TODAY AS SURFACE FRONT DRAWS NEAR...AND EXPECT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...AND LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. RADAR BASED WINDS SHOWING WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE IN 25-30KT RANGE WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
FACTOR ON THE LAKE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1047 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE CEILOMETER AT THE AUTOMATED
WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND (KRUT)-SOUTHERN
VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN OUT OF SERVICE SINCE MAY 29TH AT
0215Z. THUS...THIS SITE IS NOT REPORTING SKY COVER AT THIS TIME.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE
FAA AOCC THAT PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO FIX THE CEILOMETER. THERE IS
NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE CEILOMETER WILL
BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...WGH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 317 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...WITH
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
GEORGIA LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC...THEN OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER GEORGETOWN AND
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES THOUGH IT IS DOUBTFUL BASED ON RADAR RETURNS
THAT ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED. MORNING
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 6.5 KFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO CU AND THE ODD -SHRA.

PATTERN CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO THAT OF A MORE TYPICAL
EARLY-SUMMER REGIME...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFFSHORE AND A
STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW QUITE
SEASONAL AND WILL HOLD IN THE MID 80S MOST PLACES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES.

MUCH OF THE PRESENT CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CIRRUS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. GUIDANCE HINTED THAT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONSIDER CHANCES TOO LOW
TO MENTION AND WILL KEEP A DRY OVERNIGHT IN THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE IN VERY CLOSE ACCORD FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WITH
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST
PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE GEORGIA
AND FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ALONG
30 DEGREES LATITUDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WITH HUMID SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. A HOT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHILE A COLD LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM QUEBEC INTO
MAINE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL BE A
CHANNEL OF WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WITH AT LEAST TWO WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE FIRST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY CAPPED AIRMASS WITH CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE INSUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CONSIDERABLE PRECIP
COVERAGE. A SECOND STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
CAROLINA. SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALLER CONVECTIVE CAP THURSDAY ALONG
WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE RISING TO 1500-2000 J/KG. ADD IN A FASTER
FLOW ALOFT (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BUILDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS) AND THERE
ARE SOME INTRIGUING HINTS STORM CELL ORGANIZATION COULD PROMOTE
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF LARGE
ENOUGH COLD POOLS CAN ORGANIZE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. THE HIGHEST FORECAST POPS ARE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...60 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TO
40-50 PERCENT ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ONCE AGAIN...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL EXIST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
DURING THE PERIOD. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTER OF THE TWO
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES OVERHEAD THE FRONT IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. MID-LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY PRETTY RAPIDLY FRIDAY...SO DO
NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSTMS...BUT A GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OF
HIGH CHC TO SCHC IS WARRANTED.

MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS INTO THE WKND AS THE GFS KEEPS THAT FRONT IN
THE VICINITY AND CONTINUES DECENT POP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF
DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH AND WASHES IT OUT...IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BULGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH A DECENT IMPULSE PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...SUPPORT THE DRIER ECMWF...AND
WILL SHOW ONLY SCHC THROUGH THE WKND FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
RISE...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...AND
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON/TUE WITH INCREASING TSTM CHANCES EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN 4-6KFT CU BEING REPORTED IN THE SFC
OBS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL BECOME S-SW 10-15 KTS AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING THICKENING CIRRUS LATER TODAY...BUT THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW NO PCPN FOR OUR AREA. GIVEN THE INVERSION DEPICTED AROUND 800MB
IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN IN THESE TAFS. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MVFR VSBYS INLAND IF THE WINDS TOTALLY DROP OUT. HAVE ADDED TEMPO
MVFR FOR KLBT AS THIS SITE IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE NEARLY CALM WINDS
BEFORE DAYBREAK. VFR WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS 5-8
KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SLIPS OFFSHORE. IN
GENERAL...WE WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 15 KT RANGE WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL RUN A BIT HIGHER AND MORE GUSTY DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE GEORGIA
AND FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ALONG 30
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN A VERY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS OR MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
COMPRESS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS NEARSHORE WITH
THURSDAY`S SEABREEZE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD...REACHING 4-5
FEET LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 5-6 FEET EAST OF CAPE FEAR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A
HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WHILE THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY AFFECT
LAND...WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH THESE STORMS ACROSS THE
BEACHES AND OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY...CREATING AN EXPANDING AREA OF N/NE WINDS ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS
PRETTY WEAK HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE ONLY AROUND 10 KTS BOTH
DAYS. LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OFFSHORE...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW OVER THE
WATERS...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTH...WITH SPEEDS
RISING TO 10-15 KTS. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND
WAVES DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH 2-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALL 3 DAYS. A
CONFUSED SPECTRUM IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THANKS TO THE
WINDS VEERING FROM NE TO SOUTH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 124 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BE THE TREND
THIS WEEK. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOLLOW MID-WEEK THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...DAY HAS EVOLVED MUCH AS EXPECTED...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW
A STRONG CAP WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY MORE AMBITIOUS CONVECTION.
LATEST UPDATE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

SKIES A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE TODAY WITH MAXIMUMS REACHING
VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRIVE AFTERNOON
GUSTS ALONG BEACHES LATER TODAY AS THE SEA-BREEZE BECOMES MORE
ROBUST IN STRONG JUNE HEATING. WE ARE ONLY 18 DAYS OUT FROM
MAXIMUM OVERHEAD SUN ANGLE MARKING THE START OF
SUMMER...OFFICIALLY 6/21/14/1051Z.

60 DEGREES THE MINIMUM AT ILM THIS MORNING. IN 141 YEAR OF
RECORDS...ONLY 27 OF THOSE YEARS DID THE TEMPERATURE DIP TO 60
DEGREES OR BELOW ON JUNE 3RD.

TODAY A TRANSITION TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY JUNE WEATHER AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE SEASON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED ABOUT 125 MILES SE OF CAPE
FEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE LATEST VWP DEPICTING 10-20 KT
SW WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KILOMETERS.

LATEST NIGHT-TIME AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED PATCHES OF HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NE GULF INTO
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. LOWER CLOUDS WERE WAFTING ACROSS GEORGIA
AND WESTERN SC BENEATH THE RIDGE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED
TODAY AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS OF MODERATE VERTICAL EXTENT WILL POP
ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE...AND MORE NOTABLY WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE
FRONT AS IT MARCHES SLOWLY INLAND OVER THE COASTAL INTERIOR.

MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A DRY MID-LAYER CAP WILL ERODE AFTER
19Z-ISH. THIS COINCIDENT WITH PEAK JUNE HEATING MAY ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS TO EMERGE OFF OR NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE. BRIEF
WINDOW 19Z-21Z TIME FRAME WE HAVE INTRODUCED AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

AS THE PERSISTENCE OF RETURN FLOW ENDURES...SO WILL INCREASING
MILDNESS BE OBSERVED IN THE UPCOMING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE MINIMUMS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S COMMON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN
ACTIVE THURSDAY AS SOME AMPLITUDE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS A FRONT
TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE RECOVERED...THIS IS A RECIPE
FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TIMING. I HAVE JOGGED UP POPS TO
REPRESENT THIS TREND. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES
MOSTLY CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS STILL HOLD.

TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY STABLE WITH THE CONSISTENT WARMUP
CONTINUING. HIGHS SHOULD JUST BARLEY ECLIPSE 90 ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE
LOWER 90S THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS MODERATE TO A DEGREE OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO A DRIER SCENARIO AS THE ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW HAS A SLIGHT RIDGE FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS
ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO WEDGE
DOWN FROM THE COAST. BEYOND THIS THE FLOW BUCKLES TO SHOW A SLIGHT
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN. I HAVE FOLLOWED THE LATEST TRENDS
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE
MAINTAINING THE GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN 4-6KFT CU BEING REPORTED IN THE SFC
OBS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL BECOME S-SW 10-15 KTS AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING THICKENING CIRRUS LATER TODAY...BUT THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW NO PCPN FOR OUR AREA. GIVEN THE INVERSION DEPICTED AROUND 800MB
IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN IN THESE TAFS. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MVFR VSBYS INLAND IF THE WINDS TOTALLY DROP OUT. HAVE ADDED TEMPO
MVFR FOR KLBT AS THIS SITE IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE NEARLY CALM WINDS
BEFORE DAYBREAK. VFR WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS 5-8
KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SW WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. NO CHANGES NECESSARY
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

DECENT MARINE CONDITIONS AS ONSHORE WINDS HAVE EASED AND A MORE
TYPICAL SW WIND FLOW REGIME TAKES OVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS
OFFSHORE. THUS WE ANTICIPATE 2-4 FT SEAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...IN A
MIX OF SSW WAVES 2 FT EVERY 3-5 SECONDS AND ESE WAVES 1-2 EVERY
10-11 SECONDS. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO MARINE FOG EXPECTED. THE SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT MORE VIGOROUS THAN DAYS PAST AND MARINER
SHOULD EXPECTED OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT FROM THE S-SSW BETWEEN
300-600 PM. SW WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AS A FRONT TO THE
NORTH SHARPENS A BIT. 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER PORTION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE...WITH 20 KT GUSTS LIKELY INTO EARLY WED. THIS COULD
CONSTITUTE AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT INTO WEDNESDAY EARLY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MAGNITUDE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A
FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UP WITH
THIS SCENARIO AND WIND SPEEDS ARE NOW IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE
INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME
CONVECTION COULD DISTORT WIND FIELDS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS WELL. SEAS INCREASE FROM INITIAL VALUES OF 2-3 FEET TO
3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY A FEW SIX FOOTERS LATE CITING THE INCREASING
WIND FIELDS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CERTAINLY A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE EXTENDED. A FRONT WILL BE
BISECTING THE WATERS AND WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE THE DILEMMA...NOT
SPEEDS. THE WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN OFFERS LITTLE MORE THAN TEN
KNOTS. THE LATEST WPC GRAPHICS SHOW MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT
DEVELOPING SATURDAY AND THIS IS THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. THE USUAL DISCLAIMER HOLDS HOWEVER AS THE FRONTS
FINAL POSITION IS MUCH IN QUESTION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE LESS
OF A CONCERN WITH A RANGE OF 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1217 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN RETREATING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS BEING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO.  HAVE TWEAKS POPS/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

IN ADDITION...CLOUDS AND PRECIP ARE ACTING TO HOLD DOWN TEMPS.
LATEST LAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON COOLER TEMPS...
ALTHOUGH THE MAX TEMPS ON THE LAV MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL. HAVE
OPTED TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY DOWN A FEW DEGREES...
HOWEVER...HAVE REMAINED ABOVE LAV NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ENTERING
INTO WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BAND OF SHOWERS
EVIDENT ON KRLX AND SURROUNDING WSR-88D. HAVE TIMED BAND INTO KCRW
BY 12Z..AND EXITING EASTERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE 18Z. THIS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN LINE WITH LATEST RUC FORECAST
TRENDS. LIKE THE IDEA OF ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWER AND STORMS FORMING
UP ACROSS SE OH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLD POPS FOR BETTER PART OF TODAY DESPITE THE LULL. FOR
TEMPS...STAY WITH BIAS CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN LITTLE
CHANGE TO INHERITED TEMPS. NOTED THAT THERE ARE ONLY MINIMAL
DIFFERENCES WITH VARIOUS TEMP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WED MORNING
MOVES NEWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WED.  THE TIMING OF THE
WARM ADVECTION AND THETA E FEED IS MIDDAY...BEYOND THE FAVORED EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION...SO DO EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO
MUCH.

A VIGOROUS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH DRIVES A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WED NT...WHICH IN TURN DRAGS A
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THU MORNING.  THERE IS MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES...BUT EVEN THE FASTER GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE W THROUGH WED AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA.  THIS MAY BE FURTHER MODULATED BY TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE ONGOING UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA EARLY WED AND
HOW FAR N THE WARM FRONT GETS WED.  GFS APPEARS TO FALL VICTIM TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PUTTING ITS QPF
IN QUESTION.

GULF INFLOW WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE AT ALL AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AMPLITUDE FEATURE.  HOWEVER...RICH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA NOW WILL
NOT BE PUSHED FAR TO THE S BY THE FRONT THAT IS STALLED OUT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL QUICKLY RETURN.  THIS...ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON 50 KTS MEAN MID
LEVEL FLOW AND VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
CONCERT WITH SWODY2 FROM SPC...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MOVEMENT SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES IMPACT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS LEFT
THU...BUT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY NOT LEAVE MUCH FOR THU EVEN GIVEN
A SLOWER SOLN.  HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS PARTIAL CLEARING THU AFTERNOON
AND NT.

HIGHS LOOKED GOOD FOR WED.  BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
BEYOND THAT INCLUDING A RATHER MILD ALBEIT WET WED NT BUT A GOOD
DEAL COOLER THU NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AT LEAST IN THE
DEWPT DEPT. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED WX QUICKLY RETURNS TO ROUND OUT THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOTHER TROF
MAKING INROADS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
AMPLITUDE OF WHICH REMAINS IN QUESTION. NONETHELESS CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE GIVEN HEALTHY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WITH FAIRLY ORGANIZED BAND OF
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO ISOLD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INVOF OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. AFT
00Z...WILL SEE SOME RECOVERY OF CIG AND VSBY VALUES. MENTIONING
MVFR FOG AT KEKN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH MOIST BL IN PLACE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING
COULD VARY BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FG IN
MOUNTAIN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...JSH/KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE

NWS PORTLAND OR

 921 AM PDT TUE JUN  3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXPECT TODAY TO BE THE CLOUDIEST AND COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ACROSS
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WITH A STRONG MARINE PUSH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...MORNING CLOUDS INLAND WITH AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE IN THE MODELS AND RESULTING
FORECAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS TO BREAK UP SLOWLY
TODAY...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. DRIZZLE HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED SO FAR...BUT A
LITTLE BIT HAS BEEN FALLING ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO AREA.

CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH BACK INTO THE COASTAL GAPS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO
THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY AND A FEW OF THE CASCADE VALLEYS SOUTH AND
EAST OF EUGENE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
A TOUCH THURSDAY SO EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS TO BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S. EXPECT A NEAR
REPEAT FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD THAT A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE PAC NW
FRI INTO SAT. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ONSHORE SUN INTO MON.
THE EXACT TRACK IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE LOW TRACKS THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE FCST
AREA WITH THIS LOW. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAR TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SEEING HIGHS
INTO THE MID 70S. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS WITH CLOUD BASES LARGELY ABOVE 2000 FEET
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LITTLE LIFTING GOING ON TO LOW
END VFR. THERE ARE POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND LOWER CIGS IN SPOTS BUT
APPEAR ISOLATED. WITH PILOT REPORTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING TOPS
AROUND 4000 FT...LOCAL PROGRAMS SUGGEST STRATUS BURN OFF IN THE
VALLEY AROUND 21Z...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LONGER IN THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND KPDX AND KTTD. THE CENTRAL COAST MAY
CLEAR BUT THE NORTH LOOKS TO REMAINS OVERCAST. CIGS LOWER TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHER PRESSURE SQUASHING THE MARINE LAYER
SOME BRINGING MVFR BELOW 2000 FT...POSSIBLY SOME IFR. INLAND
PROGRESSION OF STRATUS WILL BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY COMING
BACK DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND BANKING UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS
AND SINKING SOUTH TO MAYBE NEAR SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000-2500 FT WITH TOPS
CLOSE TO 4000 FT. LOCAL PROGRAMS AND HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SUGGEST
A SLOW BURN OFF WITH STATUS BECOMING SCATTERED AROUND 21-22Z. VFR
UNTIL EARLY WEDS...THEN LOW MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
KMD

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS MAINTAINS A N TO NW
WIND PATTERN THAT IS TYPICAL OF JUNE WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS...AND WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE S OF NEWPORT.
FOR TODAY THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT NEWPORT SOUTH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SOLID
CASE FOR AN ADVISORY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS ON WED AND THU.

SEAS ARE UP TO 10 TO 11 FT...WITH PERIODS OF 8 TO 10 SEC. WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WAVES ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUED STEEP WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH WED.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT LATER IN THE WEEK. KMD/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL NOON
     PDT TODAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1248 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...

REMNANTS OF A WEAK UPPER TROF...MORE LIKE A SHEAR AXIS AT THIS
POINT...EXTENDS FROM MIDDLE TN INTO NORTH MS. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST TN AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. ELSW THE UPPER RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD IN WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE. THE 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT CAP
SO THINK PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FOR EAST AR...MO
BOOTHEEL AND A GOOD PORTION OF WEST TN/NW MS. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A SHOWER/TSTM BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS. CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS ACROSS MAINLY NE
MS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. UPDATE OUT.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014/

AS OF 4AM...AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAIN HAS HUNG AROUND NEAR THE
MS RIVER DELTA TO THE SOUTH OF MEMPHIS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LATEST DUAL- POL THREE HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL INDICATES THAT 2
TO 3 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN A CONCENTRATED AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
WEST MEMPHIS ARKANSAS...BUT SO FAR NO PROBLEMS HAVE ARISEN. THIS
RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND MOVE THROUGH NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND A STICKY 70 DEGREES. VISIBILITIES ARE
STARTING TO DROP A LITTLE BIT IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVALENT.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL STAY MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
70S AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY...HOT...AND HUMID. LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS
AND 90 PLUS DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 100
DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A MID-LEVEL
50 KT JET STREAK PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
MIXED STORM MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A
LINE WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SBCAPE VALUES WILL
APPROACH 2500 J/KG AND LI`S WILL BE NEAR -10C. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT AN MCS WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN...AN MCS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES SETS UP AND
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT STILL KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN CASE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE RIDGING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

FAIR WEATHER AFTERNOON CU FIELD WILL PREVAIL AT VFR LEVELS OVER
MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY... AS A MIDLEVEL WARM CAPPING LAYER
PREVAILS. A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL BREAK THE CAP...PARTICULARLY IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK ELEVATED TROF OVER NORTHEAST MS. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR TS AT TUP APPEARS TO BE AFTER 20Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 650 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM PENNSYLVANIA...WESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES EAST ALONG THE FRONT...
THUNDERSTORMS ERRUPTING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND MOVING
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN REGIONS OF
PRECIPITATION. A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS EXITED THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...WE ARE WATCHING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. IT WILL BE
A RACE BETWEEN SUNSET AND ARRIVAL TIME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
19Z/3PM RUN OF THE HRRR GUIDANCE IS LINING UP A LITTLE BETTER WITH
THIS CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO THE 18Z/2PM RUN OF THE RNK-WRF.
HAVE LEANED A BIT HEAVIER ON THE FORMER FOR THE POP/WX UPDATE
HEADING INTO THE EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MOVED TROUGH THE AREA
EARLIER TODAY...A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SO THAT MANY AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
REALIZING THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPS/TDS TO REFLECT THIS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES A
BIT MILDER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL.

AS OF 400 PM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONT ALOFT WHICH CROSSED THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY RESULTED IS SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MAINLY TRACE PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE OBSERVED...
UPWARDS OF A FEW HUNDRETHS AT MOST. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE
CWA...SO EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.

EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS CLEARED THE CWA...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS STILL POSITIONED UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...
EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND IL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT INTO THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA...MAINLY WV AND FAR WRN VA...TOWARD OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHATEVER ACTIVITY DOES MANAGE TO GET HERE SHOULD
BE IN A WEAKENING STATE.

WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF THE VA HIGHLANDS
INTO WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT.
AREAS WHICH MANAGED TO GET A FEW HUNDRETHS OF PRECIP TUESDAY MAY
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

A VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE MID WEST. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD
BOOST OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAIN FOCUS WILL BE A MORE ORGANIZED MCS
WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX
WITH MOST LIKELY TIMING OF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY OPTIMUM TIMING FOR SEVERE. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE AMONG MODELS AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF AN MCS WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
OH VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OR EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. SPC
MAINTAINING AN ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK FOR THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING INTO
OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z THU. SOME SEVERE WX PARAMETERS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING AN MCS OR SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LIMITED DUE
PARTLY TO THE PASSAGE AT NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING. MAINTAINED LIKELY
OR HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW MUCH THE OH VALLEY MCS
ACTUALLY HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND AT NIGHT. A
LOCAL STUDY OF OVER 50 MOUNTAIN CROSSING MESOSCALE SYSTEMS HAS SHOWN
THAT THE CHANCE OF SUCCESSFUL (I.E. REMAINING SEVERE) PASSAGE IS
CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED AT NIGHT OWING PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. BUT THAT IS NOT IN ITSELF A CONCLUSIVE FACTOR.

DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THURSDAY MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EITHER WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE WESTERLY
AND FALLING DEWPOINTS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
TOWARD THE COAST WHERE WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY TO RECOVER. THIS IS DEPICTED BY DAY 3 SEVERE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC. PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO FALL VICTIM TO THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MCS WITH HEAVIEST RAIN ALSO EXEPCTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON IN THE OH
VALLEY. ENOUGH ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN WITH DECAYING MCS FOR UP TO A
HALF-INCH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OR SO IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA OF COURSE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS MAY SEE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
PUSHING EAST AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND MILD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY JUN CLIMO..UPPER 70S
FAR WEST AND MID-80S EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
WILL LIFT NORTH PULLING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AGAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...EXITING THE FCST AREA BY 5PM/21 UTC.
WILL KEEP A SHORT EARLY PERIOD AT KDAN AND KLYH TO COVER THIS.
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNLIKELY ELSEWHERE. CIGS FOR WRN
SITES WENT QUITE LOW BEHIND THE PCPN BUT THEY SHOULD BE COMING UP
A BIT WITH TIME. BIG QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS HOW MUCH FOG
FORMATION WILL OCCUR. MODELS SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER THTE VALUES
WORKING IN OVERNIGHT... BUT IT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED. EVEN THOUGH
PCPN AMOUNTS WERE MEAGER AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
DRY...FEEL THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TIP THE SCALES IN FAVOR OF
FOG...BUT WILL NOT BITE OFF ENTIRELY ON LIFR VALUES SHOWN IN MOS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD WE WILL BE GETTIG INTO A WAA PATTERN. SOME
ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

THERE MAY BE A FEW WIND GUSTS UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING BUT OVERALLY
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR OTHER PARAMETERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL
BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF SHRA/TSRA...AND FOG IS LIKELY
EACH MORNING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS AND WHEREVER THERE WAS
RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...

COMMUNICATIONS FROM LYNCHBURG AIRPORT IS BEING REPAIRED. ONCE THIS
MAINTENANCE IS FINISHED THE OBSERVATION FROM THE LYH ASOS WILL
AGAIN BE AVAILABLE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...MBS
EQUIPMENT...AMS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 212 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...STALLING NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER AND BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT TUESDAY...

RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHOWERS WHICH ENTERED THE REGION FROM THE WEST
HAS BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE AS IT BISECTS OUR AREA AND ECHOES ARE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN A BIT TOO EXCITED WITH THIS
BUT LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE CATCHING ON. NO LTG STRIKES DETECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS OF YET...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE AS THE PCPN MOVES
INTO THE LEE TROF WHERE HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE POOLING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS PCPN LOOKS TO OCCUR WELL TO OUR
NW CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT. BELIEVE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WWD WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND HAVE
TRIMMED MAX TEMPS HERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST WITH TRAILING VORTICITY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONT ALOFT IS DETECTABLE AROUND
700 MB WITH NARROW RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE BETWEEN 700-600 MB.
THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM WRN NY AND CENTRAL PA...SOUTHWARD INTO ERN WV AND FAR
WESTERN VA. INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND
COVERAGE DECREASING WITH TIME AND EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE.
THE 12Z RNK SOUNDING INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT THE GSO
SOUNDING INDICATES LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT FOR THE ACTIVITY TO REACH
THE PIEDMONT. EVEN BY MODIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE
U80S...COULD NOT GET SBCAPE IN THE GSO PROFILE TO GET ABOVE 100.
COOLING THE 700-600 MB LAYER BY A FEW DEGREES ONLY GENERATED CAPES
OF 500.

THAT BEING SAID...THINK THE ONLY PRECIP THREAT LOCALLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM EXISTING SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST
OF THE MTNS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT
ALOFT MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES. ANY QPF WILL BE LIGHT...A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE MTNS...AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR RENEWED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE WELL UPSTREAM
OF OUR FCST AREA ALONG THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS STILL
LAGGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE MORE
SUN WILL SUPPORT READINGS IN THE 80S. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE HELD IN 60S THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON PER MORE
CLOUD COVER THERE...BUT SHOULD SEE A LATE DAY SPIKE INTO THE 70S
ONCE THE FRONT ALOFT PASSES AND THE CLOUD THIN ALLOWING FOR SOME
LATE AFTERNOON PEAKS OF SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A STRONG
AND HIGHLY KINEMATIC UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WED TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY THU
OVER THE TOP OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF 35 DEG LAT. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MERGE WITH A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF AN MCS
THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS OH/IN WED AFTERNOON...THEN PROPAGATE
AND ACCELERATE ESE DURING THE EVENING WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL
WIND FIELD...E.G. 45-55KTS AT 850MB IN THE 00Z-12Z THU TIME FRAME.
CLEARLY...FOR OUR CWA...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THIS IS BY NO MEANS
A SLAM DUNK SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AS THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS.
FIRST...THE ANTECEDENT/PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS NOT IDEAL FOR SUSTAINING ROBUST CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE TIME FRAME THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL REACH OUR CWA...NAMELY AFT 00Z THU. SECOND...THERE IS THE
UNKNOWN FACTOR OF HOW THE INTERACTION OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH ANY
SUCH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL EVOLVE AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WOULD
RESULT IN RAPID DISSIPATING OF SUCH CONVECTION AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CLEARLY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE ACROSS OUR WV COUNTIES THEN AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WED EVENING AND BEFORE
IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ALLEGHANYS. CONVECTION
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU BECOMES AN INCREASINGLY PROBLEMATIC
AND UNCERTAIN ISSUE IN CONSIDERATION OF THE FACTORS ABOVE.
CERTAINLY...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THESE AREAS AND DURING THE TIME
FRAME IN WHICH THIS CONVECTION WOULD REACH THESE AREAS...WOULD BE
FAR LESS THAN FAVORABLE. THUS...ONLY CHC POPS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED
IN THESE AREAS AND NO MENTION OF SEVERE AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME THREAT FOR WAA/PRE-MCS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU...ALL MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF PUSHING THE SHORT WAVE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CWA BY THE END OF
THE DAY ALLOWING MUCH DRIER AIR TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TIME AND LINGERING INSTABILITY...DEPENDING ON THE
DEGREE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEBRIS/POST FRONTAL CLOUDS...TO SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE VA PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE AND THE NC COUNTIES SEEMS CERTAIN...ENDING
BY 00Z FROM THE NORTH. IT NOW APPEARS CLEARER FOR THU THAT THE
MAIN THREAT FOR ANY RENEWED SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR
CWA ACROSS NC/SC. THIS WILL LEAVE THU NIGHT AND FRI DRY AND COOLER
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT WELL SOUTH INTO GA/SC. THIS
MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH THAN INDICATED IN PRIOR DAYS FORECASTS
IS A RESULT OF THE SHORT WAVE MERGING WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE NE U.S....THUS GIVING IT A GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH. THESE MODEL
CHANGES HAVE ALLOWED FOR CONSIDERABLE REDUCTION IN POPS THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE REMOVAL OF MENTIONABLE POPS FRI. THE
AIR MASS IS ACTUALLY QUITE DRY AND NOTABLY PLEASANT FOR EARLY JUNE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP FROM THE +16 TO +20C RANGE WED
TO +12 TO +14C BY FRI.

FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A GENERAL GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE PERIOD
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES OR DIFFERENCES NOTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BY SAT...WE WILL START TO SEE WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE THU/FRI
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH START TO CREEP BACK NORTH ALONG WITH
A WARM...MOIST...MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT
INTO THE OH VALLEY SUN. WAA ADVECTION THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SUN...WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE CWA ALONG WITH THE NEXT THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. BEYOND SUN...THE PATTERN APPEARS LESS VOLATILE/ACTIVE.

A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOM IN THE GULF TO SOME
DEGREE ON THE LONG RANGE MODELS MID TO LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN LATITUDES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. MAY ATTEMPT TO EXPAND INTO
THE OH/KY VALLEY WHICH WOULD BLOCK THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES.
SO FAR THIS SEASON...SUCH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED TO ANY SIGNIFICANCE.

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AS 850MB TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE
+16C TO +18C RANGE...BUT REMAINING FAR SHORT OF ANYTHING REALLY
CONSIDERED HOT OR WHAT COULD OCCUR AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...EXITING THE FCST AREA BY 5PM/21 UTC.
WILL KEEP A SHORT EARLY PERIOD AT KDAN AND KLYH TO COVER THIS.
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNLIKELY ELSEWHERE. CIGS FOR WRN
SITES WENT QUITE LOW BEHIND THE PCPN BUT THEY SHOULD BE COMING UP
A BIT WITH TIME. BIG QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS HOW MUCH FOG
FORMATION WILL OCCUR. MODELS SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER THTE VALUES
WORKING IN OVERNIGHT... BUT IT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED. EVEN THOUGH
PCPN AMOUNTS WERE MEAGER AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
DRY...FEEL THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TIP THE SCALES IN FAVOR OF
FOG...BUT WILL NOT BITE OFF ENTIRELY ON LIFR VALUES SHOWN IN MOS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD WE WILL BE GETTIG INTO A WAA PATTERN. SOME
ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

THERE MAY BE A FEW WIND GUSTS UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING BUT OVERALLY
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR OTHER PARAMETERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL
BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF SHRA/TSRA...AND FOG IS LIKELY
EACH MORNING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS AND WHEREVER THERE WAS
RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...

COMMUNICATIONS FROM LYNCHBURG AIRPORT IS BEING REPAIRED. ONCE THIS
MAINTENANCE IS FINISHED THE OBSERVATION FROM THE LYH ASOS WILL
AGAIN BE AVAILABLE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...MBS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 1243 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...STALLING NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER AND BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT TUESDAY...

RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHOWERS WHICH ENTERED THE REGION FROM THE WEST
HAS BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE AS IT BISECTS OUR AREA AND ECHOES ARE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN A BIT TOO EXCITED WITH THIS
BUT LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE CATCHING ON. NO LTG STRIKES DETECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS OF YET...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE AS THE PCPN MOVES
INTO THE LEE TROF WHERE HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE POOLING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS PCPN LOOKS TO OCCUR WELL TO OUR
NW CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT. BELIEVE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WWD WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND HAVE
TRIMMED MAX TEMPS HERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST WITH TRAILING VORTICITY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONT ALOFT IS DETECTABLE AROUND
700 MB WITH NARROW RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPE BETWEEN 700-600 MB.
THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM WRN NY AND CENTRAL PA...SOUTHWARD INTO ERN WV AND FAR
WESTERN VA. INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND
COVERAGE DECREASING WITH TIME AND EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE.
THE 12Z RNK SOUNDING INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT THE GSO
SOUNDING INDICATES LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT FOR THE ACTIVITY TO REACH
THE PIEDMONT. EVEN BY MODIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE
U80S...COULD NOT GET SBCAPE IN THE GSO PROFILE TO GET ABOVE 100.
COOLING THE 700-600 MB LAYER BY A FEW DEGREES ONLY GENERATED CAPES
OF 500.

THAT BEING SAID...THINK THE ONLY PRECIP THREAT LOCALLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM EXISTING SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST
OF THE MTNS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT
ALOFT MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES. ANY QPF WILL BE LIGHT...A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE MTNS...AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR RENEWED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE WELL UPSTREAM
OF OUR FCST AREA ALONG THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS STILL
LAGGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE MORE
SUN WILL SUPPORT READINGS IN THE 80S. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE HELD IN 60S THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON PER MORE
CLOUD COVER THERE...BUT SHOULD SEE A LATE DAY SPIKE INTO THE 70S
ONCE THE FRONT ALOFT PASSES AND THE CLOUD THIN ALLOWING FOR SOME
LATE AFTERNOON PEAKS OF SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A STRONG
AND HIGHLY KINEMATIC UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WED TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY THU
OVER THE TOP OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF 35 DEG LAT. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MERGE WITH A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF AN MCS
THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS OH/IN WED AFTERNOON...THEN PROPAGATE
AND ACCELERATE ESE DURING THE EVENING WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL
WIND FIELD...E.G. 45-55KTS AT 850MB IN THE 00Z-12Z THU TIME FRAME.
CLEARLY...FOR OUR CWA...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THIS IS BY NO MEANS
A SLAM DUNK SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AS THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS.
FIRST...THE ANTECEDENT/PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS NOT IDEAL FOR SUSTAINING ROBUST CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE TIME FRAME THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL REACH OUR CWA...NAMELY AFT 00Z THU. SECOND...THERE IS THE
UNKNOWN FACTOR OF HOW THE INTERACTION OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH ANY
SUCH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL EVOLVE AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WOULD
RESULT IN RAPID DISSIPATING OF SUCH CONVECTION AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CLEARLY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE ACROSS OUR WV COUNTIES THEN AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WED EVENING AND BEFORE
IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ALLEGHANYS. CONVECTION
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU BECOMES AN INCREASINGLY PROBLEMATIC
AND UNCERTAIN ISSUE IN CONSIDERATION OF THE FACTORS ABOVE.
CERTAINLY...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THESE AREAS AND DURING THE TIME
FRAME IN WHICH THIS CONVECTION WOULD REACH THESE AREAS...WOULD BE
FAR LESS THAN FAVORABLE. THUS...ONLY CHC POPS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED
IN THESE AREAS AND NO MENTION OF SEVERE AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME THREAT FOR WAA/PRE-MCS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV WED AFTERNOON.

FOR THU...ALL MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF PUSHING THE SHORT WAVE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CWA BY THE END OF
THE DAY ALLOWING MUCH DRIER AIR TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TIME AND LINGERING INSTABILITY...DEPENDING ON THE
DEGREE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEBRIS/POST FRONTAL CLOUDS...TO SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE VA PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE AND THE NC COUNTIES SEEMS CERTAIN...ENDING
BY 00Z FROM THE NORTH. IT NOW APPEARS CLEARER FOR THU THAT THE
MAIN THREAT FOR ANY RENEWED SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR
CWA ACROSS NC/SC. THIS WILL LEAVE THU NIGHT AND FRI DRY AND COOLER
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT WELL SOUTH INTO GA/SC. THIS
MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH THAN INDICATED IN PRIOR DAYS FORECASTS
IS A RESULT OF THE SHORT WAVE MERGING WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE NE U.S....THUS GIVING IT A GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH. THESE MODEL
CHANGES HAVE ALLOWED FOR CONSIDERABLE REDUCTION IN POPS THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE REMOVAL OF MENTIONABLE POPS FRI. THE
AIR MASS IS ACTUALLY QUITE DRY AND NOTABLY PLEASANT FOR EARLY JUNE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP FROM THE +16 TO +20C RANGE WED
TO +12 TO +14C BY FRI.

FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A GENERAL GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE PERIOD
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES OR DIFFERENCES NOTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BY SAT...WE WILL START TO SEE WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE THU/FRI
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH START TO CREEP BACK NORTH ALONG WITH
A WARM...MOIST...MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT
INTO THE OH VALLEY SUN. WAA ADVECTION THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SUN...WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE CWA ALONG WITH THE NEXT THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. BEYOND SUN...THE PATTERN APPEARS LESS VOLATILE/ACTIVE.

A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOM IN THE GULF TO SOME
DEGREE ON THE LONG RANGE MODELS MID TO LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN LATITUDES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. MAY ATTEMPT TO EXPAND INTO
THE OH/KY VALLEY WHICH WOULD BLOCK THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES.
SO FAR THIS SEASON...SUCH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED TO ANY SIGNIFICANCE.

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AS 850MB TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE
+16C TO +18C RANGE...BUT REMAINING FAR SHORT OF ANYTHING REALLY
CONSIDERED HOT OR WHAT COULD OCCUR AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LINE OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
MID-AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW END VFR CIGS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS EASTERN WV. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER ACROSS EASTERN WV IN UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
-SHRA...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FURTHER EAST. THE THREAT
OF TSRA APPEARS LOW...BUT HAVE INCLUDED FOR DAN AS SOME ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP THERE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT MAINLY EAST OF
THERE. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS WITH MVFR CIGS
DISSIPATING EASTERN WV TOWARD MORNING. THE EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS
WILL DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF BR/FG FOR LWB...AS OF NOW
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY IFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR BR MAY ALSO DEVELOP LYH AND BCB TOWARD MORNING.
WINDS...WSW-W 5-10KTS THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN 7-10KTS WITH LOW
END GUSTS BLF/BCB/ROA BEHIND THE SHRA INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ANY TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL
BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF SHRA/TSRA...AND FOG IS LIKELY
EACH MORNING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS AND WHEREVER THERE WAS
RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...

COMMUNICATIONS FROM LYNCHBURG AIRPORT IS BEING REPAIRED. ONCE THIS
MAINTENANCE IS FINISHED THE OBSERVATION FROM THE LYH ASOS WILL
AGAIN BE AVAILABLE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/NF/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER TAKES PLACE TO OUR SOUTH.

CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC AND THE GREAT LAKES...WITH BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ON THE TOP OF THIS
RIDGE...SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND IN NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. DPVA FROM THESE TWO SHORTWAVES...COMBINED WITH STRONG
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI WHERE MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXISTS PER RAP ANALYSIS...HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DRY CONDITIONS EXIST DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. SOME CIRRUS HAS
BEEN STREAMING IN AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF...AS WELL AS
FROM A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE EQUATORIAL REGION
OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. MASSIVE DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
EXISTS PER GOES DERIVED IMAGERY...DEPICTING 0.6-0.7 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TO 1.4-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA.
REGARDING AIRMASS WARMTH...A BIG DIFFERENCE EXISTS HERE TOO. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWED 925MB TEMPS OF AROUND 16C OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TO 24-30C IN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.

CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
CONGEALING INTO A BOWING MCS THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN IOWA. IN
FACT...THE SMALL BOW TRAVERSING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD END UP
BEING THE BOWING MCS. THIS IS VERY WELL AGREED UPON BY BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. FROM THIS POINT...THERE
REMAINS A SPLIT AMONGST SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...
PRIMARILY THE 03.12Z NAM AND 03.09Z SREF WHICH TAKE A FARTHER NORTH
TRACK COMPARED TO THE 03.12Z GFS/ECMWF AND MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE DEALING WITH A BOWING MCS...THE
FORECAST MOTION IS DETERMINED BY CORFIDI VECTORS...AND IN THIS CASE
THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS ARE MORE APPROPRIATE.
THESE VECTORS POINTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUGGEST A TRACK THROUGH
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL...THUS FAVORING THE MORE SOUTHERN
MODELS. THE 03.12Z HI RES ARW AT THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE CONVECTION NOW THE BEST AND ALSO TAKES EVEN MORE OF A SOUTHERN
TRACK.

NOW ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT IS LIKELY TO DROP TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT...THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS FOR A MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND TO CROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-90. ALONG WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS
BAND...A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KT JET STREAK AT THE
TROPOPAUSE CROSSING WISCONSIN SHOULD HELP PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SOUTH OF I-90. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT SOUTH OF I-90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS
SUGGEST CLOUD BASES COULD BE ROOTED AT 10000 FT...WHICH MAY TEND TO
LIMIT SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY...INSTABILITY IS
FAIRLY MEAGER ABOVE 10000 FT...THUS LIGHTNING MAY BE ISOLATED AT
BEST. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE GONE AFTER 12Z PER 03.12Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SOME HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA PER GFS/ECMWF. DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY
MILD. GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 50S LOOK REASONABLE. ON WEDNESDAY...
INITIAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A
BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. STILL...925MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO 16-18C BY 00Z SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...

1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP.
ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 0.5
INCH OR LESS. THERE ARE SOME ISSUES WITH HOW COLD WE GET...
ESPECIALLY AT OUR COLD SITES WHERE AT SPARTA WI THE MAV IS 36
COMPARED TO 45 OFF THE MET. THE DIFFERENCE IS TIED TO THE SPEED OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SPREADING CLOUDS
TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE 03.12Z NAM BRINGS PRECIPITABLE
WATER BACK UP TOWARDS 1 INCH AT 12Z...REFLECTIVE OF THESE CLOUDS.
FOR NOW HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE MAV AS THE NAM SCENARIO APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER AMONGST MOST GUIDANCE. FOR NOW LEFT OUT A FROST
MENTION SINCE DID NOT GO 100 PERCENT COLD AS THE MAV...BUT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR CENTRAL WI IN LATER FORECASTS.

2. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS A RESULT OF BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN ANY OTHER MODEL.
ALL OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE LEANED THAT WAY.

3. THE WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION. ONE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY...AND A SECOND BEING A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH MN AND WI ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW THESE TWO INTERACT...PRIMARILY WITH
THE 03.00Z/03.12Z ECMWF RUNS MUCH MORE BULLISH SPREADING SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...COMPARED TO THE 03.12Z
GFS/CANADIAN WHICH ARE DRIER. FOR NOW FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS AND
GIVEN THE GENERALLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF...KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UP IN THE 30-60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE CONCERNS STILL SEEM MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A TREND
FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT QUICKER FOR SUNDAY...THUS HAVE LOWER
CHANCES BETWEEN 20-30 THEN. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 8C.

4. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY INCREASES...BUT
THERE IS A GENERAL IDEA FOR RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. EXACT TIMING VARIES...BUT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY
FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS BEING ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY
LOW FOR RST/LSE AS INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY LOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PASSING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 4KFT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH MORE BELOW
THAT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
WEEK...THUS THE WARNING CONTINUES THERE.

REGARDING THE TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI...THE ONLY OTHER FLOOD
WARNINGS THAT WERE PRESENT WERE ALONG THE KICKAPOO AND THESE HAVE
NOW BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...AJ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 359 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS OR
SO...WITH THE BEST RADAR COVERAGE SO FAR OVR CARBON/ALBANY
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY HIGH-BASED AND HAS PRODUCED LITTLE
OR NO RAINFALL AS SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS UNDOUBTEDLY ARE PRODUCING WINDS GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE WELL-DEFINED
DRYLINE HAD REACHED KIMBALL AND EXTENDED NORTHWEST TOWARDS
DOUGLAS. CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS MOSTLY DEVELOPED ON THE DRY-SIDE
OF THIS DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH DID HAVE AN UPDRAFT GO UP EAST OF THE
THE DRYLINE...WHICH WAS UNABLE TO BE SUSTAINED. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRY PUNCH ASSOCIATED WITH A H3 JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NEBRASKA AS WELL AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING
ACROSS WYOMING. THE AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL CONDUCIVE
TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. AT 19Z...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS TONGUE OF 2000 J/KG
MLCAPE EXTENDING BACK TO NR THE WY/NE STATELINE. THERE CONTINUED
TO BE HOWEVER SOME WEAK MLCIN OF AROUND 20 J/KG IN THIS AREA
TOO...LIKELY DELAYING SOME THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60+ KNOTS WILL AID ORGANIZATION. LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOW WITH STORMS
PUSHING EAST OF THE CWFA BY AROUND 6 PM...WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION OVR THE PANHANDLE AS WELL LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED
IT INTO THE FORECAST.

FLOW BACKS QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE MAINLY OVR THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PROGD SBCAPES FLARING TO 1000-1500
J/KG. 0-6 KM WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY...PROGD TO BE AROUND
50 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GET
SEVERE CONVECTION GOING. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MULTI-CELL
CLUSTER BY LATER AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH EAST TOWARDS THE
SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA IN THE PROGRESS PATTERN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

NO BIG CHANGES THIS PACKAGE FROM WHAT WE INHERITED ON THE MORNING
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST. 12Z GFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE ADVERTISING A MESSY UPPER PATTERN WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER TROUGH SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN THEY SHIFT THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST GOING INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA...BUT HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON BRINGING IT THROUGH UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO OUR EAST. THE
ECMWF NOW HAS A STRONGER SIGNAL IN DEPICTING A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWER TEMPS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS OUR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL LIKELY GET KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 60S UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE WE CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS ADVERTISED ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO LOW END POPS WERE LEFT IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

EXPECTING SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE DELAYED
THE INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL THINK WE WILL
SEE STORMS POPPING UP OVER THERE AFTER 20Z...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ZONE OF GREATER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM JUST WEST OF CHADRON
DOWN TO ALLIANCE. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
PANHANDLE...MENTIONED VCNTY TSRA ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SITES.
OTHERWISE...700 MB OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOST SITES SHOULD BE
SEEING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECOUPLING
AND WEAKENING TONIGHT AFTER 03Z. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING RADIATION
FOG EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WITH VFR
PREVAILING TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DROPPED ALLIANCE
AND CHADRON DOWN TO LIFR VISIBILITIES WITH SIDNEY AND SCOTTSBLUFF
DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE. FEWER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO LESS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND WILL PRODUCE A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE AND
LARAMIE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER STAGES HAVE CRESTED
AND ARE FORECASTED TO RECEDE. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
SO NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOWMELT EACH DAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...GARMON
HYDROLOGY...RUBIN