Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/02/14


SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING MAINLY NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM THE BEACHES TO THE VALLEYS FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH BREEZY WINDS AND FAIR SKIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)... A WEAK SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE WINDS AND THERMAL SUPPORT...DESPITE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HOLDING NEAR YESTERDAYS LEVELS. 3-KM HRRR MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO A TAD WEAKER FOR THIS EVENING. LOCAL ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF AND NEAR GAVIOTA. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLIDES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM IS STARTING TO PLAY INTO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST KLAX AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS THINNING AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES START TO RISE AS THE WEAK RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO PLAY FOR SUNDAY BY REDUCING THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND COVERAGE SOMEWHAT AND INTRODUCING A SLIGHT WARM-UP FOR SUNDAY. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES TO SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES MOVES NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW INTO TUESDAY. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OUT IN THE DESERT ON MONDAY AS THE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS DEVELOP AND COMBINE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE A DRY STANCE WITH THE TROUGH...BUT A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR MONDAY AS 850 MB MIXING RATIO APPROACH 5 G/KG. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)... ANOTHER TROUGH QUICKLY DIPS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH...REENFORCING ONSHORE FLOW AND ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED DEEPER MARINE LAYER. A COOLING TREND LOOKS TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES CLIMB FOR LATE WEEK. A FLAT RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR LATE WEEK AND SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND WITH A THINNING MARINE LAYER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. A JUNE GLOOM PATTERN COULD SET-UP ALONG THE COAST WITH ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE LAYER...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE WARM. LOCAL STUDIES SUGGEST 100 PLUS DEGREE TEMEPRATURES IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS...SUCH AS WOODLAND HILLS...OJAI...AND SANTA CLARITA. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY...THE PACKAGE DOES NOT TAKE SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE STANCE AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...31/1800Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TAFS N OF PT CONCEPTION. IFR MARINE LAYER CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 05Z BUT TIMING MAY DIFFER +/- 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES. 30% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDS FOR CENTRAL COAST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND KPRB AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COAST AND VALLEY SITES S OF PT CONCEPTION. 30% CHANCE TIMING OF MARINE LAYER CIGS WILL DIFFER 2 HRS OR MORE FROM TAF TIMES. AREAL COVERAGE IS LOW CERTAINTY AS LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT AFFECT THE VENTURA COAST...AND MAY MOVE INLAND TO THE L.A. VALLEY SITES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BREEZY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR KPMD AND KWJF. KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z TODAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z...WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS UNCERTAIN AND A 20% CHANCE LOW CIGS WILL NOT AFFECT THE SITE. KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF IFR/LIFR CIGS 13Z-16Z SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...31/200 PM. A STABLE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A SURFACE HIGH AROUND 1033 MB ABOUT 700 NM WEST OF THE OREGON COAST AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE S OF LAS VEGAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH LOCALLY MODERATE NW TO WEST WINDS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA BETWEEN SANTA ROSA ISLAND AND PT CONCEPTION. FOR INNER WATERS...LOW END SCA WINDS WILL AFFECT PZZ645 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...ALONG WITH SHORT PERIOD SEAS 5 TO 7 FT AT 8 SECONDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEARSHORE. A WEAK CATALINA EDDY WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...CAUSING SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET AT 7 SECONDS ACROSS PZZ650/655. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...HALL MARINE...SMITH AVIATION...SMITH SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
756 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 750 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 ISOLD STORMS ARE OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS. LATEST RAP SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING FM DENVER SE TOWARDS LIMON BY MIDNIGHT WHILE THE HRRR HAS NOTHING. FOR NOW WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ADDING ANY POPS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF SWEEPING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF DRYING AND SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD MOTION ALSO NOTED IN RAP/NAM QG PRODUCTS AS WELL. SO FAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CWA. MEANWHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS WELD AND THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DENVER AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INDICATED MORE CLOUDS. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WITH AN EVER SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WHILE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY. NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 A WARM FRONT AND THETA E RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING NORTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE MOVING INTO WYOMING TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM. MODELS ARE SPEEDING THE SYSTEM UP SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL KICK IT OUT QUICKER TUESDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE PUSHED OUT THE CHANCE OF STORMS...AGAIN ONLY EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...QUICKER AND INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES. THE QUICK PASSING DISTURBANCE HAS A 90 KT JET ON THE BASE OF IT...OVER COLORADO. AS THE SURFACE LOW GETS PUSHED EAST INTO KS/NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE. MUCH DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH IN...WITH VALUES NEAR 0.1 INCH OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL WARMER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT NOT MUCH COVERAGE. COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FEW UPPER TROUGHS PASS OVER THE AREA. TWO NOTABLE COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS WELL...ONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SATURDAY...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN BETWEEN. LOOK FOR COOLER THAN NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 750 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 A FNT WILL AFFECT THE AIRPORT SHORTLY WITH GUSTY NNE WINDS FOR AN HOUR WHICH WILL THEN DECREASE BY 04Z. LATEST RAP SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BY 06Z WHILE THE HRRR HAS NOTHING. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN AT DIA. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS DVLP LATER TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS BECOME SELY WHICH COLD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AT DIA. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 CURRENT RIVER/STREAM FLOWS ARE HOLDING GENERALLY STEADY AND EXPECT DIURNAL UPWARD TRENDS AND STREAMS LATER TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES BUT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY DOWNSTREAM ON THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT BALZAC ON MONDAY ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY. EXPECT MORE RISES IN RIVER/STREAM LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A WARMING TREND. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RPK SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN AVIATION...RPK HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
440 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH THAN WHAT THE RAP AND WRF MODELS HAVE INDICATED QPF WISE. CONVECTION AND QPF IN THE NAM MODEL MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE BUT IS DEFINITELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN THE DRIER HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. AIR MASS TRENDING TO A DRIER REGIME TODAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...GRADIENT FLOW...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR FOR SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NRN HALF. A COUPLE OF STRONG CELLS HAVE FORMED IN MOFFAT COUNTY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION THIS EVENING AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS EXPANDING AREAS OF QPF TONIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO. QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOW SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR NW COLORADO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THIS FORCING IS FRACTURED. SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AT AROUND 25-35 MPH FROM THE SW TO NE. ONCE THE WAVE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...WSW ADVECTS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS INTO UTAH AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE NEARLY NON EXISTENT...MEANING DRY WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 MODELS ARE CURRENTLY POINTING TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOWERS AFTER WEDNESDAY AS MODEL AGREEMENT LESSENS. AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE... LEAVING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND ACROSS WEST. A PACIFIC UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 130W/30N THIS AFTERNOON GETS PULLED INLAND ACROSS CA ON MONDAY...THEN TRACKS ACROSS NRN UT NWRN CO ON TUE. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE... SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BUT...ITS PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME WINDIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY POSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER WAVE COMING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BUT DIFFER ON SPEED AND ORGANIZATION. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MTNS SHOWERS THU-SAT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 431 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING NORTH OF A LINE FROM KCNY-KGJT-KMTJ-KGUC-KMYP. GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35 KTS AND LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z AND FINISHED BY 12Z. DRY WEATHER WITH NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. CONTINUED VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH. THE HIGHEST FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS. PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PF LONG TERM...JAD AVIATION...JDC HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH THAN WHAT THE RAP AND WRF MODELS HAVE INDICATED QPF WISE. CONVECTION AND QPF IN THE NAM MODEL MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE BUT IS DEFINITELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN THE DRIER HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. AIR MASS TRENDING TO A DRIER REGIME TODAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...GRADIENT FLOW...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR FOR SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NRN HALF. A COUPLE OF STRONG CELLS HAVE FORMED IN MOFFAT COUNTY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION THIS EVENING AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS EXPANDING AREAS OF QPF TONIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO. QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOW SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR NW COLORADO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THIS FORCING IS FRACTURED. SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AT AROUND 25-35 MPH FROM THE SW TO NE. ONCE THE WAVE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...WSW ADVECTS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS INTO UTAH AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE NEARLY NON EXISTENT...MEANING DRY WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 MODELS ARE CURRENTLY POINTING TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOWERS AFTER WEDNESDAY AS MODEL AGREEMENT LESSENS. AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE... LEAVING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND ACROSS WEST. A PACIFIC UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 130W/30N THIS AFTERNOON GETS PULLED INLAND ACROSS CA ON MONDAY...THEN TRACKS ACROSS NRN UT NWRN CO ON TUE. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE... SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BUT...ITS PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME WINDIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY POSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER WAVE COMING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BUT DIFFER ON SPEED AND ORGANIZATION. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MTNS SHOWERS THU-SAT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z EVENING NORTH OF A LINE OF KCNY- KGJT-KMTJ-KGUC-KMYP. GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35 KTS AND LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z AND FINISHED BY 12Z. DRY WEATHER WITH NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. CONTINUED VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH. THE HIGHEST FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS. PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PF LONG TERM...JAD AVIATION...PF HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
843 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 843 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 DISTURBANCE EJECTING ACROSS THE WRN SLOPE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS NW COLORADO...POORLY RESOLVED BY MOST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. APPEARS THE TREND FOR TODAY WILL BE DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THIS DISTURBANCE...EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE SRN PORTION. THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY BE OCCURRING THIS MORNING HOURS...BUT DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE. THE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER EVENING DISTURBANCE CROSSING NE UTAH INTO NW COLORADO THAT COULD SPAWN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL IF THE INCOMING MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES AS SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALLOWING SOME QUICK SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS TO FIRE BEFORE QUICKLY SCOOTING OFF TO THE EAST. THE HRRR IS DOING FAIRLY WELL PICKING UP ON THIS CONVECTION SO FOLLOWED THIS GUIDANCE WITH MOST CONVECTION DYING DOWN NEAR SUNRISE THOUGH AN ODD CELL OR TWO MAY REMAIN...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FROM NOON ONWARDS. PWATS REMAIN HIGH WITH INSTABILITY AND CAPE FAVORING HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH FORECAST FOLLOWING SUIT. ATTM...MODELS FAVORING THE FLATTOPS AND CENTRAL MTNS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE A BIT MORE THAN THAT. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE THESE STORMS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE SEPARATING FROM THE LEFT COAST THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PULLING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL FOCUS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER ADDED LIFT WILL COME FROM THE INDIRECT CIRCULATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET NOSING INTO UTAH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE BETTER FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THINGS MILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE WANING BY SUNRISE WITH ONLY HIGH BASED WEAK SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND KEEP RIVERS RUNNING STRONG. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAJA BULGES NORTHWARD INTO THE 4 CORNERS AREA. THIS EFFECTIVELY CUTS OFF A MOISTURE TAP AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY WARMING A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT PUSHING THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW INTO CALIFORNIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ALOFT AND BRING MORE AFTERNOON BREEZINESS ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE SUBTROPICAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORECAST MOISTURE REMAINS LOW WITH LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP INCREASING FIRE WX CONCERNS AS DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. AFTER THAT...THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH GETS FLATTENED...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER LEAVING ERN UT/WRN CO TO DEAL WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND MEAGER MOISTURE...AN OCCNL SHOWER/STORM MAY POP UP HERE OR THERE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME STORMS DRIFTING OVER NEARBY VALLEYS. MTN TAF SITES LOOK TO BE UNDER THE GUN TODAY INCLUDING KEGE...KASE...AND KTEX THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL FORM ON-STATION. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WITH STORMS THAT FORM. SOME CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIVERS AND STREAMS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH OR INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOW INCREASES. THE HIGHEST FLOWS ARE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. THAT BEING SAID...ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE FORECAST WILL BE RUNNING FAST AND STRONG THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS. PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...PF SHORT TERM...TGR/15 LONG TERM...15/TGR AVIATION...TGR HYDROLOGY...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
309 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES AS SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALLOWING SOME QUICK SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS TO FIRE BEFORE QUICKLY SCOOTING OFF TO THE EAST. THE HRRR IS DOING FAIRLY WELL PICKING UP ON THIS CONVECTION SO FOLLOWED THIS GUIDANCE WITH MOST CONVECTION DYING DOWN NEAR SUNRISE THOUGH AN ODD CELL OR TWO MAY REMAIN...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FROM NOON ONWARDS. PWATS REMAIN HIGH WITH INSTABILITY AND CAPE FAVORING HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH FORECAST FOLLOWING SUIT. ATTM...MODELS FAVORING THE FLATTOPS AND CENTRAL MTNS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE A BIT MORE THAN THAT. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE THESE STORMS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE SEPARATING FROM THE LEFT COAST THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PULLING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL FOCUS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER ADDED LIFT WILL COME FROM THE INDIRECT CIRCULATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET NOSING INTO UTAH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE BETTER FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THINGS MILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE WANING BY SUNRISE WITH ONLY HIGH BASED WEAK SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND KEEP RIVERS RUNNING STRONG. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAJA BULGES NORTHWARD INTO THE 4 CORNERS AREA. THIS EFFECTIVELY CUTS OFF A MOISTURE TAP AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY WARMING A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT PUSHING THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW INTO CALIFORNIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ALOFT AND BRING MORE AFTERNOON BREEZINESS ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE SUBTROPICAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORECAST MOISTURE REMAINS LOW WITH LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP INCREASING FIRE WX CONCERNS AS DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. AFTER THAT...THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH GETS FLATTENED...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER LEAVING ERN UT/WRN CO TO DEAL WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND MEAGER MOISTURE...AN OCCNL SHOWER/STORM MAY POP UP HERE OR THERE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME STORMS DRIFTING OVER NEARBY VALLEYS. MTN TAF SITES LOOK TO BE UNDER THE GUN TODAY INCLUDING KEGE...KASE...AND KTEX THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL FORM ON-STATION. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WITH STORMS THAT FORM. SOME CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIVERS AND STREAMS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH OR INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOW INCREASES. THE HIGHEST FLOWS ARE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. THAT BEING SAID...ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE FORECAST WILL BE RUNNING FAST AND STRONG THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS. PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR/15 LONG TERM...15/TGR AVIATION...TGR HYDROLOGY...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... 19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONSISTING OF AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OVER TOP A STUBBORN CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW RIDGES WAY TO THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA BEFORE SHARPLY DIVING SOUTH INTO A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS ON A SLOW SOUTHWARD PATH THAT WILL TAKE IT TO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...HOWEVER THIS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN SOME "BLOW-OFF" CIRRUS INVADING OUR SKIES. THE MORNING 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS WE HAVE A MOIST PROFILE THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE TROP WITH A MEASURED PW VALUES AROUND 1.75". STEERING LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 400MB IS VERY LIGHT (VECTOR AVERAGE IS JUST A SLIGHT PUSH FROM EAST TO WEST)...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORM MOTION VECTORS ARE MAYBE 5-10KNOTS FROM EAST TO WEST...SO WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL CAPE WITH THE MOIST SOUNDING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH (AT LEAST NOT TOO FAT A PROFILE THROUGH ANY ONE LEVEL)...HOWEVER THE HIGH PW VALUE WILL FAVOR EFFICIENT WATER LOADING OF THE STRONG CELLS WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE FORECAST FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING A WEAK EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE LOCAL GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND RESULT IN SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE THE STRUCTURE AND PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORMS THAT WE HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. && .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR A QUICK INLAND PENETRATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED UP THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA...AND WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE/TRANSLATE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE COLUMN SEEMS PRIMED FOR STORM COVERAGE TO AGAIN BE NUMEROUS IN NATURE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR... AND THINK STORMS WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME MOVING WEST TO THE COAST TODAY (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SLOW). AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WATER LOADING OF THE STRONG CELLS WILL STILL PROVIDE A LOCALIZED WIND THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND INSIDE THE I-75 CORRIDOR (AFTER 4PM) WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR THE BEST UPDRAFTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE...AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY RUN WRFARW GUIDANCE RUNS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND FEEL CONFIDENT WITH THE CURRENT 60-70% POPS IN THE GRIDS ALONG THE FAVORED ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE. LEFTOVER STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATER THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE TYPICAL WARM SEASON CALM PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY SUNRISE. SUNDAY... THE FINAL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TIGHTENS THE LOCAL GRADIENT. A WEAK ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD THIS RIDGE ADVANCE INTO THE PENINSULA DURING SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS MUCH MORE DEFINED ALOFT IN TERMS OF DRIER AIR...CAA. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ADDED TO THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AS DEVELOPING SHALLOW SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THAT WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSLATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE STRONGER EAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MINIMUM OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND AND THEREFORE...WHILE EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO ADVANCE INTO HIGHLANDS/POLK/SUMTER COUNTIES...THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND FEEL THE THREAT FOR STRONGER CELLS INLAND IS LOW. EASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO REACH 15-20 BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS PLENTY OF MOMENTUM TO PIN ANY SEABREEZE AT THE COAST OR EVEN PREVENT A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE FROM EVEN BECOMING ESTABLISHED. WHAT WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE IS A LOCAL SLOWING OF THE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS THE SEA-BREEZE UNSUCCESSFULLY ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP. THIS SLOWING WHILE NOT AS EFFICIENT AT FOCUS AS AN ACTUAL BOUNDARY...WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE TO ASSIST IN UPDRAFT FORMATION. WITH THIS IN MIND FEEL THE BEST LATER DAY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS... AND THE BEST CHANCE AT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE INSIDE/WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. KEEP THIS IN MIND IF HEADING TO THE BEACHES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMEST TEMPS (UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S) WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHEN THE LEAST MARINE INFLUENCE AND LATEST CONVECTIVE ARRIVAL ARE EXPECTED. WELL INLAND THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MOST PLACES UNDER THE 90 DEGREE MARK. && .MID TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY) HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SHIFT STEADILY SOUTHWARD TO A LOCATION OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PROPEL A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. AS A RESULT...WILL SHOW POPS RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO 50/60 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS OFFERING UP VARYING SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN BOTH SHOW STRONGER DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AND AS A RESULT THEY KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE TO HANG UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING AWAY FROM SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH ARE PROGRESS SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TO SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING STORM...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT. STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MID EVENING WITH GENERAL VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL FLOW ARE EXPECTED. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASE TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON. FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 73 90 73 88 / 30 60 20 30 FMY 72 90 73 89 / 20 60 20 50 GIF 71 88 71 87 / 20 60 10 30 SRQ 72 90 73 89 / 40 60 30 40 BKV 69 91 70 87 / 30 60 10 30 SPG 75 88 75 87 / 40 60 30 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA MID TERM/LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT Sat May 31 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight... Thunderstorms have developed initially early this afternoon very near where recent runs of the 3km HRRR and the 09Z run of our local WRF-ARW expected - around the lower Apalachicola River and Gulf County in the Florida Panhandle. As these models were the basis of the updated forecast this morning, the forecast seems to be on track for the next 6-12 hours. Additional thunderstorms are developing along the Atlantic sea breeze in northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, and should advance into eastern parts of our area later this afternoon. Thunderstorms could linger into the evening hours - particularly in southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. PoPs were kept higher in these eastern areas, with scattered thunderstorms expected elsewhere. An isolated strong to severe storm is not out of the question, especially near boundary collisions where enhanced low-level convergence would be expected. .Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... The large scale amplified blocking pattern of recent days begins to break down into a more progressive pattern thru the short term. The CWA will be between upper low over Wrn Gulf of Mex and upper high over SE Conus. However this low has gradually but steadily filled in last 12 hrs as both systems continue to drop south and weaken with low progressively replaced by a weak upper ridge extending Ewd from Srn Plains to across the deep south by Mon night. Sunday...at surface, building high along mid-Atlc coast with ridging Swwd across NE Gulf region yielding increasing ESE flow sfc-H5 and PWATs approaching 2 inches. Ahead of ridge, weak backdoor front will be nudged SWWD into SE GA in the late morning and dropping into the Big Bend in the aftn. Lacking upper forcing, mesoscale processes, including the front, the sea breeze, and outflow clashes will provide the primary forcing for convection and PoP distribution, typical of summertime. The east coast sea breeze will once again concentrate evening convection primarily across our SW GA zones. Look for fairly evenly scattered convection with 60% PoPs daytime, 50-20% SW-NE evening POPs, highest near front. Inland high temps in upper 80s, except mid 80s NE tier GA counties due to clouds assocd with above boundaries. Monday...as surface high builds further down the Ern seaboard to Carolina coast by sundown, our 1000-700 mb winds back and increase to moderate ELY over east half but remain light ESE over west half. In addition, with backdoor front now south of CWA and ridge strengthening, drier air will build in from the ENE pushing PWATs below 1.3 inches Ern most counties by sunset (still around 1.7 inches Wrn counties). This should reduce convective coverage, particularly across our eastern zones. 50-20% daytime and 30-0% eve SW-NE POP gradients. Temperatures will be close to seasonal norms. Inland highs in mid 80s, low mid 60s east to upper 60s west. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... The Wrn Gulf upper low will slide off the SW as the upper level ridge moves east toward the Carolinas and upstream ridge begins to build Newd into the Gulf region and deep south later on Tues thru Wed. At surface, ridge across the SE region remains largely intact. The upper ridge will gradually breakdown beginning on Thurs. So lacking upper forcing especially thru Wed, expect a generally summertime rainfall pattern of SE low level flow and wdly sct to scattered convection determined largely by aftn/eve seabreeze and outflow clashes rest of workweek. Looking longer term, a weak surface low still appears to form across Bay of Campeche or Nrn Yucatan Peninsula around Wed bears watching as moisture heads towards our area beginning on Sat. Will go with mainly aftn/eve 30-20% W-E POPs on Tues, 20-30% S-N Fri and 30-40% Sat. Otherwise NIL POPS. Temperatures will be near Climo with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s. && .Aviation... [Through 18Z Sunday] An initial area of thunderstorm development should affect ECP between 19-21Z. IFR VIS will be possible along with some gusty winds. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are expected. This was mostly handled in the other terminal forecasts with a longer period of prevailing SHRA with VCTS, as timing and location of thunderstorms is still a bit uncertain. VFR should generally prevail outside of thunderstorms. && .Marine... Winds will generally be out of the east-southeast over the next several days, veering to more directly onshore near the coast each afternoon in the sea breeze. A ridge of high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard and the gradient will become tight enough for an easterly surge event Sunday night into Monday, which is now expected to bring cautionary level winds and seas and borderline advisory level winds Sunday overnight well offshore. As the ridge settles further south, the gradient will weaken allowing winds and seas to subside for the early part of the work week. && .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. && .Hydrology... With a summertime pattern well established across the region, large scale flooding is not anticipated. As on most summer days, isolated areas of heavy rain will be possible in some thunderstorms. These may briefly produce flooding in poor drainage areas and could cause sharp rises on the faster responding small creeks and streams. Main stem rivers are expected to remain in their banks. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 69 87 68 86 68 / 40 60 50 30 20 Panama City 72 86 72 84 72 / 20 50 40 40 20 Dothan 69 87 67 86 68 / 40 60 40 30 20 Albany 69 86 66 86 66 / 60 60 30 20 10 Valdosta 68 86 65 87 66 / 50 60 40 20 10 Cross City 68 87 67 86 66 / 40 60 30 20 10 Apalachicola 72 85 73 84 73 / 20 50 40 30 20 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight CDT tonight for Coastal Bay- South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...BLOCK LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...BLOCK FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...WOOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1036 AM EDT Sat May 31 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]... Showers and thunderstorms this morning over the Gulf of Mexico have mostly dissipated, except for a few lingering showers just west of Panama City as of 14Z. Therefore, most of the forecast area was experiencing dry conditions with a mixture of low-mid level cloud decks and sunshine. Overall, there is very little difference between the 12Z sounding taken this morning from Tallahassee, and the one taken 24 hours ago. Light E-SE flow continues in the lower troposphere, with fairly light flow aloft. Recent runs of the 3km HRRR as well as the 09Z run of our 4km WRF- ARW appear to be modeling ongoing conditions fairly well. Both show the most concentrated initial convective development between 17Z and 19Z in the Apalachicola River basin as well as the eastern Florida Big Bend near the Suwannee River. They also both show activity in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend diminishing around 22Z, with the 22-04Z time frame being dominated by larger convective clusters in southwest Georgia. This would make sense with lighter E-SE 1000-700mb flow as thunderstorms along the Atlantic sea breeze and inland Florida peninsula trough should progress into eastern parts of the area closer to sunset, and possibly combine with previous inland development in C/SC GA. Given that these models have verified well so far, and the similarities in evolution to what occurred yesterday, we have tweaked the forecast to follow that general timeline. The inherited forecast, however, already described that fairly well. Highs should be around 90 degrees - warmest in SW Georgia. && .Prev Discussion [257 AM EDT]... .Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... The upper low west of the region will gradually but steadily fill as it drops south into the western Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday. Mesoscale processes, including the sea breeze, will provide the primary forcing for convection and PoP distribution, typical of summertime. The east coast sea breeze will once again concentrate evening convection primarily across our Southwest GA zones. Look for fairly evenly scattered convection on Sunday with PoPs around 50 as PWs remain elevated around 2 inches. As surface high pressure builds further down the eastern seaboard on Monday, our 1000-700 mb winds will become light out of the east across our eastern zones while southeasterly winds persist further west. In addition, drier air will build in from the east pushing PWs below 1.5 inches in that region. This should reduce convective coverage, particularly across our eastern zones. Temperatures will be close to seasonal norms. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... The upper level low will slide off the west as the upper level ridge moves east toward the Carolinas. Winds from the southeast will bring moisture from the Gulf increasing the chance for showers. Better chance for afternoon and evening sea breeze thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be near climatology with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s. .Aviation... [Through 06Z Sunday] Low ceilings and MVFR fog should overspread at least VLD, and possibly TLH and ABY over the next few hours. All terminals will return to VFR shortly after sunrise. Expect showers and thunderstorms at ECP and VLD, earlier in the day at ECP and towards mid to late afternoon at VLD. This evening, showers and thunderstorms should reach TLH and possibly ABY. Expect VFR to prevail today outside of thunderstorms. .Marine... Winds will generally be out of the east-southeast over the next several days, veering to more directly onshore near the coast each afternoon in the sea breeze. A ridge of high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard and the gradient will become tight enough for an easterly surge event Sunday night, which is now expected to bring cautionary level winds and seas to the waters. As the ridge settles further south, the gradient will weaken allowing winds and seas to subside for the early part of the work week. .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. .Hydrology... With a summertime pattern well established across the region, large scale flooding is not anticipated. As on most summer days, isolated areas of heavy rain will be possible in some thunderstorms. These may briefly produce flooding in poor drainage areas and could cause sharp rises on the faster responding small creeks and streams. Main stem rivers are expected to remain in their banks. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 89 69 88 68 88 / 40 40 50 40 30 Panama City 84 72 86 72 86 / 60 20 50 40 40 Dothan 89 69 89 68 88 / 40 40 50 40 30 Albany 90 69 87 66 88 / 70 60 50 30 20 Valdosta 91 68 90 65 90 / 70 50 50 20 20 Cross City 88 68 88 67 88 / 60 40 50 30 30 Apalachicola 84 72 86 73 85 / 30 20 40 40 30 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...WOOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1030 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)... 14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONSISTING OF AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OVER TOP A STUBBORN CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW RIDGES WAY TO THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA BEFORE SHARPLY DIVING SOUTH INTO A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. PLENTY OF CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...HOWEVER THIS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN SOME "BLOW-OFF" CIRRUS INVADING OUR SKIES. THE MORNING 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS WE HAVE A MOIST PROFILE THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE TROP WITH A MEASURED PW VALUES AROUND 1.75". STEERING LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 400MB IS VERY VERY LIGHT (VECTOR AVERAGE IS JUST A SLIGHT PUSH FROM EAST TO WEST)...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORM MOTION VECTORS ARE MAYBE 5-10KNOTS FROM EAST TO WEST...SO WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS LATER TODAY. OVERALL CAPE WITH THE MOIST SOUNDING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH (AT LEAST NOT TOO FAT A PROFILE THROUGH ANY ONE LEVEL)...HOWEVER THE HIGH PW VALUE WILL FAVOR EFFICIENT WATER LOADING OF THE STRONG CELLS WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE FORECAST FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING A WEAK EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE LOCAL GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND RESULT IN SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE THE STRUCTURE AND PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORMS THAT WE HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BUT..THAT IS TOMORROW...LETS TALK MORE ABOUT TODAY. THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR A QUICK INLAND PENETRATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE. EXPECT TO SEE A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND UP THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY EVOLVE/TRANSLATE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE COLUMN SEEMS PRIMED FOR STORM COVERAGE TO AGAIN BE NUMEROUS IN NATURE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR...AND THINK STORMS WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME MOVING WEST TO THE COAST TODAY (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SLOW). AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WATER LOADING OF THE STRONG CELLS WILL STILL PROVIDE A LOCALIZED WIND THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND INSIDE THE I-75 CORRIDOR (AFTER 3-4PM) WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR THE BEST UPDRAFTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE...AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY RUN WRFARW GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...AND FEEL CONFIDENT WITH THE CURRENT 60-70% POPS IN THE GRIDS ALONG THE FAVORED ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE. LEFTOVER STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATER THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE TYPICAL WARM SEASON CALM PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY SUNRISE. && .MID TERM (SUNDAY-MONDAY) HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SHIFT STEADILY SOUTHWARD TO A LOCATION OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PROPEL A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ON SUNDAY...SO WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. AS A RESULT...WILL SHOW POPS RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO 50/60 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS OFFERING UP VARYING SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN BOTH SHOW STRONGER DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AND AS A RESULT THEY KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE TO HANG UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AWAY FROM SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR MANY OF THE TERMINALS TO SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING STORM...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT. STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MID EVENING WITH VFR GENERAL VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL THE TERMINALS. && .MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER INLAND AREAS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EACH DAY...BRINGING DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEFLY ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES TO THE WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A THE EFFECTS OF A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLY SURGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASE TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 74 90 73 / 60 30 70 20 FMY 91 72 91 73 / 60 20 60 20 GIF 90 72 89 71 / 60 20 50 10 SRQ 89 73 91 73 / 60 30 70 30 BKV 89 69 90 70 / 60 30 60 10 SPG 87 75 89 75 / 60 30 70 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA MID TERM/LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA MARINE...LEWIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
921 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .UPDATE...CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE OVER OREGON THIS MORNING WILL BE THE NEXT MAIN PLAYER FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. 12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP/RUC THIS MORNING SHOWING VARYING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. HRRR IN FAVOR OF HOLDING OFF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND NOT QUITE WHERE THE OTHER MODELS ARE PLACING THE BEST INSTABILITY. CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OREGON SHORTWAVE COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS TODAY...WITH CURRENT BEST INSTABILITY IN THE CLEARING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS A BLEND OF THE SIGNALS...AND CURRENT GRIDS PLAY THIS OUT FAIRLY WELL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LOW WITH DRY SOUNDINGS SO SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS BEST THREAT FOR TODAY. NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. DMH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STORM NUMBER 1 WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY TOMORROW. WE ARE ALREADY SEE SOME MOISTURE WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR NOW THOUGH...IT APPEARS THIS IS ALL MID- LEVEL MOISTURE AND VIRGA. YOU CAN EXPECT PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AND GUSTY WINDS OUT OF ANYTHING BEFORE NOON. AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS FAR WESTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON...AN BIG UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THIS IS WHEN WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...AGAIN ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS OVER 40MPH AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT ANY BIG THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE DUE TO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. FOR TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS THE UPPER PLAIN. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE STORM SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS ANY REAL STORM THREAT WILL BE NORTH OF A HAILEY TO ALPINE, WYOMING LINE. SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG...BUT NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOLDOWN THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT STILL LOOKING AT 70S FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS. FOR THOSE HEADING INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY...50S AND 60S ARE ON TAP DURING THE DAY. AT NIGHT...SOME HIGHER PEAKS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP TO NEAR 35 DEGREES SO MAKE SURE YOU ARE PREPARED. KEYES LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY POPS UP OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL PUSH SOME FOLKS BACK UP INTO THE LOW 80S. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. WE ARE LOOKING AT 1-2 PUNCH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE MOVES ACROSS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY WAVE NUMBER 2. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STORM ACTUALLY SPLITS AND WE ARE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH THIS PATTERN VS THE GFS. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS FOR BOTH DAYS. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW A LARGER SYSTEM SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN U.S. IT LOOKS EASTERN IDAHO WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN END...WHICH WOULD PUT HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL STILL BE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SOME FLUCTUATION LIKELY DUE TO CLOUD COVER. LOWS WON`T BE TOO BAD EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER PEAKS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TRYING TO DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING SOME MORNINGS. KEYES AVIATION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WASHINGTON WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KSUN AND AREAS NEAR THE MONTANA AND IDAHO BORDER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT KIDA...KPIH AND KBYI AFTER 20Z. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT. SOME RESPECTABLE COLD AIR ALOFT...LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A CONCERN PARTICULARLY AT KSUN AND KIDA. RS FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON THIS MORNING WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO OVER NIGHT TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUN VALLEY TO STANLEY AND TOWARDS MONIDA PASS BY LATE THIS MORNING. BEST LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE TARGHEE FOREST AREA ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE PAST MIDNIGHT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE .01 TO .07 RANGE...VERY ISOLATED CELLS PRODUCING CLOSE TO .10 INCH. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FLOW PATTERN BECOMES WESTERLY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND TARGHEE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TODAY...THEN 5 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY. RS HYDROLOGY...CONDITIONS ON VALLEY CREEK AROUND STANLEY ARE STEADILY IMPROVING THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE THE TETON RIVER BASIN. THE TETON RIVER AT ST. ANTHONY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE BANKFULL AFTER TODAY AND REMAIN THERE. THE TETON RIVER AROUND DRIGGS SHOULD PEAK JUST BELOW BANKFULL...BUT SOME OF THE CREEKS COMING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER WILL BE RUNNING PRETTY HIGH. KEYES && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME INFERRED WEAK BOUNDARIES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEW POINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS WITH 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR...AND RAP TRENDS...THE CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA WILL NOT MAKE MUCH MORE NORTHERN PROGRESS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THUS AREAS SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KSPI LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS. AFTER SUNSET...THE REMAINING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY 10-11 PM ALONG WITH THE REMAINING DIURNAL CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AND DRY. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN INITIALLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY MID DAY. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH SUNSET. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MOVING EAST. IF CORRECT...THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WOULD ARRIVE IN THE AREA VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS IT DISSIPATES. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS COMPLEX WOULD THEN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT ON... THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. THE GFS KEEPS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WEIGHING THE STRENGTHS/WEAKNESSES OF THE MODELS AND CONSIDERING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE...THE IDEA OF BRINGING IN A DRYING TREND LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DOES HAVE MERIT. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE SUGGESTS A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH AN EAST/WEST BOUNDARY SETTING UP IN OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL IT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THE ENTIRE TIME. NO. EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL DICTATE WHERE SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. SO...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ATTEMPTING TO PIN THEM DOWN IS NOT POSSIBLE WHEN DEALING WITH NONLINEAR PROCESSES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN AXIS OF MOIST AIR FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHEAST IOWA WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. SCT-BKN CIRRUS WILL KEEP THE VSBYS IN THE FOG AROUND 5SM...HOWEVER ANY PROLONGED CLEARING OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
550 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 ...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECTING SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN VICINITY OF OLD...CLOSED LOW THAT IS MEANDERING OVER ARKANSAS. ALSO SEEING WEAK CONVECTION FORMING ALONG NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. OVERALL LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING REMAINS WEAK ACROSS EASTERN PART OF CWA...THUS CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG AND EAST OF KANSAS TURNPIKE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SUB-SEVERE. TONIGHT: SOME CONCERN ABOUT CONVECTION FORMING ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THAT CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF CWA. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL INCREASE KINEMATIC FORCING THIS EVENING. QUICK PEEK AT NSSL WRF ENSEMBLE/SSEF HINTING AT A SMALL QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS KANSAS HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID-EVENING. SOME REFLECTION OF THIS SCENARIO BEING INDICATED BY HRRR AS WELL...ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. REGARDLESS ALL THESE MESO MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING...AS FLOW STARTS BACKING AS STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY: FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS HIGH PLAINS...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO PANHANDLE. INITIAL STORM DEVELOP LIKELY WILL BE WEST OF CWA WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED...BUT DIABATIC HEATING ALONG DRYLINE WILL RAMP UP INSTABILITY BY MID-AFTERNOON. WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...CONFIDENT SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE EXPLODING WEST OF THE CWA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH DRYLINE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT GIVEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL CONGEAL INTO MCS...AND TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL 310-315 THETA GRADIENT...GENERALLY ALONG I-70 AND EASTERN US 50 CORRIDORS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 1500-2500J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND 35-50KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MONDAY: LINGERING CONVECTION DEBRIS WILL IMPACT MAINLY EASTERN PART OF CWA DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND LEFT OVER MESO BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN MAINLY EAST WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL INCREASE LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES INTO THE 2000-4000 J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR PROFILES AGAIN IN THE 35-50KT RANGE. MID-LEVEL CAPPING AGAIN MAY BE A DETERRENT TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING. TUESDAY: FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SO CURRENT THINKING IS WEATHER WILL BE RATHER QUIET ON TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. FORECAST MODELS AGAIN INDICATING THAT ANOTHER MCS COULD FORM WESTERN NEBRASKA/EASTERN WYOMING AND MOVE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRACK APPEARS FURTHER NORTH...SO MAY JUST BRUSH CWA. SF .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERAL REINFORCING SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO SUPPRESS SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGE WITH TIME...THUS AREA LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. GEFS DEPICTING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE...SO TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KCNU THROUGH 01-02Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL. REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED CENTERED AROUND 12Z BEFORE MIXING OUT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 22Z ON SUNDAY WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 67 88 70 89 / 10 10 40 20 HUTCHINSON 66 89 69 89 / 20 10 50 20 NEWTON 66 87 68 88 / 10 10 50 20 ELDORADO 66 85 68 86 / 10 10 50 20 WINFIELD-KWLD 67 87 70 88 / 10 10 40 20 RUSSELL 67 91 67 88 / 20 40 70 10 GREAT BEND 66 91 67 89 / 20 40 70 10 SALINA 67 91 69 89 / 20 20 70 20 MCPHERSON 67 89 69 89 / 20 20 50 20 COFFEYVILLE 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 30 CHANUTE 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40 IOLA 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40 PARSONS-KPPF 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 40 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
339 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECTING SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN VICINITY OF OLD...CLOSED LOW THAT IS MEANDERING OVER ARKANSAS. ALSO SEEING WEAK CONVECTION FORMING ALONG NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. OVERALL LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING REMAINS WEAK ACROSS EASTERN PART OF CWA...THUS CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG AND EAST OF KANSAS TURNPIKE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SUB-SEVERE. TONIGHT: SOME CONCERN ABOUT CONVECTION FORMING ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THAT CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF CWA. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL INCREASE KINEMATIC FORCING THIS EVENING. QUICK PEEK AT NSSL WRF ENSEMBLE/SSEF HINTING AT A SMALL QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS KANSAS HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID-EVENING. SOME REFLECTION OF THIS SCENARIO BEING INDICATED BY HRRR AS WELL...ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. REGARDLESS ALL THESE MESO MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING...AS FLOW STARTS BACKING AS STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY: FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS HIGH PLAINS...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO PANHANDLE. INITIAL STORM DEVELOP LIKELY WILL BE WEST OF CWA WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED...BUT DIABATIC HEATING ALONG DRYLINE WILL RAMP UP INSTABILITY BY MID-AFTERNOON. WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...CONFIDENT SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE EXPLODING WEST OF THE CWA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH DRYLINE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT GIVEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL CONGEAL INTO MCS...AND TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL 310-315 THETA GRADIENT...GENERALLY ALONG I-70 AND EASTERN US 50 CORRIDORS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 1500-2500J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND 35-50KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MONDAY: LINGERING CONVECTION DEBRIS WILL IMPACT MAINLY EASTERN PART OF CWA DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND LEFT OVER MESO BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN MAINLY EAST WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL INCREASE LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES INTO THE 2000-4000 J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR PROFILES AGAIN IN THE 35-50KT RANGE. MID-LEVEL CAPPING AGAIN MAY BE A DETERRENT TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING. TUESDAY: FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SO CURRENT THINKING IS WEATHER WILL BE RATHER QUIET ON TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. FORECAST MODELS AGAIN INDICATING THAT ANOTHER MCS COULD FORM WESTERN NEBRASKA/EASTERN WYOMING AND MOVE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRACK APPEARS FURTHER NORTH...SO MAY JUST BRUSH CWA. SF .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERAL REINFORCING SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO SUPPRESS SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGE WITH TIME...THUS AREA LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. GEFS DEPICTING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE...SO TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/MVRF TO IFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING ARE MAIN ISSUES. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PER LAST SEVERAL DAYS AT KCNU...WHILE A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVERAGE IN CENTRAL KS. CHANCES AT KRSL SHOULD WANE RAPIDLY AROUND 2300 UTC AS AXIS OF WAVE PASSES. MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION DURING THE NIGHT...SO PLAYED LOW CLOUDS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE. APPEARS THAT MVFR WOULD BE LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH IFR POSSIBLE...SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. WITH INCREASE IN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DAYBREAK...SHOULD SEE QUICKER MIXING AND GUSTY WINDS BY MID MORNING AT MOST SITES. -HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 67 88 70 89 / 10 10 40 20 HUTCHINSON 66 89 69 89 / 20 10 50 20 NEWTON 66 87 68 88 / 10 10 50 20 ELDORADO 66 85 68 86 / 10 10 50 20 WINFIELD-KWLD 67 87 70 88 / 10 10 40 20 RUSSELL 67 91 67 88 / 20 40 70 10 GREAT BEND 66 91 67 89 / 20 40 70 10 SALINA 67 91 69 89 / 20 20 70 20 MCPHERSON 67 89 69 89 / 20 20 50 20 COFFEYVILLE 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 30 CHANUTE 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40 IOLA 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40 PARSONS-KPPF 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 40 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1156 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 827 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOW DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE SAME AREA CO-LOCATED WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES NORTHWARD TAKING THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH IT. HOWEVER WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 AHEAD OF A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES THERE. TOWARD MID AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CAUSING THE CINH TO INCREASE SO WILL ALLOW PRECIP. CHANCES TO DECLINE AS A RESULT. MEANWHILE ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHERE A DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH LIFT INCREASING OVER THE WEST AS THE DRY LINE MOVES IN AND 700-500MB MIXING RATIOS ALSO INCREASING...AM THINKING STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE DRY LINE. WILL HAVE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS A RESULT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSES LOW STILL IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SW FLOW EXTENDING OVER A LONG FETCH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO JUST WEST OF THE KS/CO STATE LINE. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY MATCHING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT/ACTIVE PATTERN AS SW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND TD VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 60F WILL ALSO LINGER. I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANY PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING DOES GENERALLY FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WHILE CAPE PROFILES COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM...THE BEST SHEER IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN ORGANIZED SUPER CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST). INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON (IF NAM SOLUTION WORKS OUT)...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. I BUMPED UP POPS/WINDS (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY)...AND ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. I CONSIDERED DOING THE SAME FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER I AM LESS CONFIDENT ON MONDAYS PATTERN AT THIS POINT. STILL WORTH MONITORING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MID-WEEK TO DROP TEMPS DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN SOLD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASPECT. A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE FINE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE STRENGTH/TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT ON THE WHOLE THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE...PROBABLY BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT AND A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ON LATER IN THE WEEK. TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH 850MB TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S C...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA /TRIBUNE AND LEOTI/ APPROACHING TRIPE DIGITS. A STRONG DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE BEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM DESPITE DEW POINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE LATE TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT CAP HOLDING AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE LIMITATIONS SO WILL KEEP POPS SUB-50 PERCENT FOR NOW. WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOLER TEMPS. SOME BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COLORADO MOVING NORTHEAST COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. LIMITED CAPE WILL PREVENT STRONG T-STORMS. CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR KGLD. CURRENT THINKING IS TO HAVE THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN DURING THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE DRY LINE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF KGLD BY 6Z. KMCK SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON STORMS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR KMCK...BUT THIS MAINLY OCCURS AFTER 18Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JTL SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
842 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 827 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOW DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE SAME AREA CO-LOCATED WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES NORTHWARD TAKING THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH IT. HOWEVER WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 AHEAD OF A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES THERE. TOWARD MID AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CAUSING THE CINH TO INCREASE SO WILL ALLOW PRECIP. CHANCES TO DECLINE AS A RESULT. MEANWHILE ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHERE A DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH LIFT INCREASING OVER THE WEST AS THE DRY LINE MOVES IN AND 700-500MB MIXING RATIOS ALSO INCREASING...AM THINKING STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE DRY LINE. WILL HAVE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS A RESULT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSES LOW STILL IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SW FLOW EXTENDING OVER A LONG FETCH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO JUST WEST OF THE KS/CO STATE LINE. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY MATCHING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT/ACTIVE PATTERN AS SW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND TD VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 60F WILL ALSO LINGER. I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANY PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING DOES GENERALLY FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WHILE CAPE PROFILES COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM...THE BEST SHEER IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN ORGANIZED SUPER CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST). INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON (IF NAM SOLUTION WORKS OUT)...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. I BUMPED UP POPS/WINDS (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY)...AND ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. I CONSIDERED DOING THE SAME FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER I AM LESS CONFIDENT ON MONDAYS PATTERN AT THIS POINT. STILL WORTH MONITORING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MID-WEEK TO DROP TEMPS DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN SOLD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASPECT. A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE FINE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE STRENGTH/TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT ON THE WHOLE THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE...PROBABLY BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT AND A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ON LATER IN THE WEEK. TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH 850MB TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S C...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA /TRIBUNE AND LEOTI/ APPROACHING TRIPE DIGITS. A STRONG DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE BEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM DESPITE DEW POINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE LATE TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT CAP HOLDING AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE LIMITATIONS SO WILL KEEP POPS SUB-50 PERCENT FOR NOW. WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOLER TEMPS. SOME BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COLORADO MOVING NORTHEAST COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. LIMITED CAPE WILL PREVENT STRONG T-STORMS. CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF KGLD. KMCK IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED THUNDER (THOUGH THIS CANT BE RULED OUT). BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE REGION. I ADDED VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE BEEN MONITORING FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AS LIFR CIGS HAVE BE OCCURRING OFF AND ON ALL MORNING AT KGLD... AND NEARBY OB AT KITR SHOWS VIS 1/4SM. THIS DENSE FOG HAS YET TO REACH KGLD WHERE VIS HAS REMAINED IN THE 4-7SM RANGE. GUIDANCE IS DOING A POOR JOB OF HANDLING THE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER NIGHT PRECIP POOLING ALONG SURFACE FRONT IN EASTERN COLORADO. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP GOING AT KGLD THIS MORNING FOR CURRENT CIG/VIS TRENDS LOCALLY...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO SEE IF VIS BEGINS TO DETERIORATE. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW RIGHT NOW IN VIS FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JTL SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
529 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSES LOW STILL IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SW FLOW EXTENDING OVER A LONG FETCH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY EXTENDING FROM NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO JUST WEST OF THE KS/CO STATE LINE. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY MATCHING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT/ACTIVE PATTERN AS SW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND TD VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 60F WILL ALSO LINGER. I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANY PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING DOES GENERALLY FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WHILE CAPE PROFILES COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM...THE BEST SHEER IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST). INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON (IF NAM SOLUTION WORKS OUT)...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. I BUMPED UP POPS/WINDS (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY)...AND ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. I CONSIDERED DOING THE SAME FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER I AM LESS CONFIDENT ON MONDAYS PATTERN AT THIS POINT. STILL WORTH MONITORING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MID-WEEK TO DROP TEMPS DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN SOLD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASPECT. A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE FINE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE STRENGTH/TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT ON THE WHOLE THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE...PROBABLY BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT AND A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ON LATER IN THE WEEK. TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH 850MB TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S C...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA /TRIBUNE AND LEOTI/ APPROACHING TRIPE DIGITS. A STRONG DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE BEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM DESPITE DEW POINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE LATE TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT CAP HOLDING AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE LIMITATIONS SO WILL KEEP POPS SUB-50 PERCENT FOR NOW. WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOLER TEMPS. SOME BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COLORADO MOVING NORTHEAST COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. LIMITED CAPE WILL PREVENT STRONG T-STORMS. CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF KGLD. KMCK IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED THUNDER (THOUGH THIS CANT BE RULED OUT). BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE REGION. I ADDED VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE BEEN MONITORING FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AS LIFR CIGS HAVE BE OCCURRING OFF AND ON ALL MORNING AT KGLD... AND NEARBY OB AT KITR SHOWS VIS 1/4SM. THIS DENSE FOG HAS YET TO REACH KGLD WHERE VIS HAS REMAINED IN THE 4-7SM RANGE. GUIDANCE IS DOING A POOR JOB OF HANDLING THE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER NIGHT PRECIP POOLING ALONG SURFACE FRONT IN EASTERN COLORADO. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP GOING AT KGLD THIS MORNING FOR CURRENT CIG/VIS TRENDS LOCALLY...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO SEE IF VIS BEGINS TO DETERIORATE. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW RIGHT NOW IN VIS FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
253 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSES LOW STILL IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SW FLOW EXTENDING OVER A LONG FETCH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY EXTENDING FROM NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO JUST WEST OF THE KS/CO STATE LINE. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY MATCHING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT/ACTIVE PATTERN AS SW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND TD VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 60F WILL ALSO LINGER. I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANY PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING DOES GENERALLY FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WHILE CAPE PROFILES COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM...THE BEST SHEER IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST). INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON (IF NAM SOLUTION WORKS OUT)...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. I BUMPED UP POPS/WINDS (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY)...AND ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. I CONSIDERED DOING THE SAME FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER I AM LESS CONFIDENT ON MONDAYS PATTERN AT THIS POINT. STILL WORTH MONITORING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MID-WEEK TO DROP TEMPS DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN SOLD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASPECT. A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE FINE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE STRENGTH/TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT ON THE WHOLE THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE...PROBABLY BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT AND A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ON LATER IN THE WEEK. TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH 850MB TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S C...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA /TRIBUNE AND LEOTI/ APPROACHING TRIPE DIGITS. A STRONG DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE BEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM DESPITE DEW POINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE LATE TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT CAP HOLDING AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE LIMITATIONS SO WILL KEEP POPS SUB-50 PERCENT FOR NOW. WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOLER TEMPS. SOME BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COLORADO MOVING NORTHEAST COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. LIMITED CAPE WILL PREVENT STRONG T-STORMS. CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE GLD AREA AND INTO THE MCK AREA. CONDITIONS AT GLD SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS SHOWERS DISSIPATE AFTER 08Z. CLOUD COVER WILL GO FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED AFTER 16Z WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AFTER AFTER 21Z. MCK SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A POSSIBILITY OF CONDITIONS GOING TO MVFR WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO PERSIST AND A HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1110 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY PUT OUT A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES EAST OF JACKSON. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA...FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER BEFORE FADING OUT. AS SUCH...WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT TEMPORARILY HIGHER POPS AND THUNDERS CHANCES IN THIS AREA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA. THIS FLOW HAS BROUGHT AMPLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE JKL CWA THE PCPN HAS BEEN MORE FLEETING WITH JUST A FEW PINHEAD SHOWERS NOTED... LARGELY DUE TO A WARM NOTCH AROUND 650 MBS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...SO THE INSTABILITY IS THERE BUT ANY TRIGGERS HAVE BEEN TOO WEAK TO SUSTAIN STORMS HERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON RADAR. THE HRRR SEEMS OUT OF TOUCH WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A POP UP SO HAVE NOT REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM THE GRIDS. A BETTER CHANCE MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING PER MULTIPLE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE NAM12. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED SOME LOW...BUT RELEVANT... POPS IN THIS PART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND VALLEY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THESE GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM. SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF JACKSON. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWN IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT THAT WILL ACT AS A CAP AND KEEP ALL THE BUILDUPS BELOW 12K FEET. AS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN AND THE AREAL EXTEND WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DROP OFF AGAIN NEAR DAWN AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTING THE GFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THE UNREALISTIC DEWPOINTS THE MODEL IS GENERATING. WITH THE DEWPOINTS TO HIGH...IT TAKES MUCH LESS CONVECTION AND LIFT TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL CHOICE HAS BEEN THE NAM AND HRRR FOR THE FORECAST. THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE LOWS A BIT HIGHER AND THE HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATION ADJUSTMENTS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST OF A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FIRST THING TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP WITH THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKELY TO GET ANY MID LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUPPORT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND LIKELY DROP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHES IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT NEAR THE AREA AGAIN...THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST BY SATURDAY WITH GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO SQUEEZE A FEW DRY PERIODS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...CIGS AROUND 4K CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHEN THERE ARE ENOUGH CLOUDS FOR A CIG. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR DAWN MONDAY...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY TO HAVE AN EFFECT AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
307 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED BARELY OUT OF THE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY BEFORE MOVING BACK ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN IN THE GRADIENT OF THETA E DISPLAY OF THE NAM AND I WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO ACTUALLY CALL IT A WARM FRONT. THE NET RESULT WILL BE TO BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AND THE ABOVE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLENDS FOR THE FORECASTS. EXPECT DRAY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL WAS PREDICTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES FROM 6 TO 9 PM TONIGHT...HOWEVER CHOSE TO IGNORE THIS DUE TO THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION SHOWING UP ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES CONFINED TO MAINLY TIMING ISSUES. ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE AREA. VERY FEW TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOME TERRAIN INDUCED BOUNDARIES MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WE MAY SEE A LULL BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SKIRTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SHORTWAVE AFTER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE PERIOD FAIRLY UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY BROAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS TIMING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MAY DIFFER QUITE A BIT. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR A WHILE WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR LOWER VALLEY FOG AROUND NEAR DAWN TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR MORE MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A RENEWED PICKUP IN MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
156 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE TENDRILS OF FOG THROUGH THE SOUTHERN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW NUDGES PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BRINGING A DRIER AIR MASS TO THAT PART OF THE STATE. ON SATELLITE...A WISP OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THIS TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS DRIER AIR AND THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST...TOO...BUT MAINLY A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE IS NOTED THERE AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE VARIES MORE BROADLY WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS FOUND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHILE MID 50S ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ONE DEEP CLOSED LOW IS MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER WEAKER ONE FILLING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN TIME...THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING ALL THE ENERGY NORTH AND WEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE RIDGE DOES WEAKEN QUICKLY... THOUGH...AS IT SINKS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BIT MORE MID LEVEL ENERGY TO SEEP INTO KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE... BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY...QUIET... AND WARM DAY UNDER RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SEEPS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOCATED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. USED THE BCCONSSHORT/ALL AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES... DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS. DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE TONIGHT FOR MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LATER SUNDAY THROUGH THE CWA...OTHERWISE KEPT THEM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES CONFINED TO MAINLY TIMING ISSUES. ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE AREA. VERY FEW TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOME TERRAIN INDUCED BOUNDARIES MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WE MAY SEE A LULL BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SKIRTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SHORTWAVE AFTER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE PERIOD FAIRLY UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY BROAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS TIMING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MAY DIFFER QUITE A BIT. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR A WHILE WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR LOWER VALLEY FOG AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING...SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHERE THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LOWEST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR MORE MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A RENEWED PICKUP IN MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
735 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE TENDRILS OF FOG THROUGH THE SOUTHERN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW NUDGES PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BRINGING A DRIER AIR MASS TO THAT PART OF THE STATE. ON SATELLITE...A WISP OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THIS TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS DRIER AIR AND THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST...TOO...BUT MAINLY A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE IS NOTED THERE AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE VARIES MORE BROADLY WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS FOUND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHILE MID 50S ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ONE DEEP CLOSED LOW IS MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER WEAKER ONE FILLING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN TIME...THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING ALL THE ENERGY NORTH AND WEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE RIDGE DOES WEAKEN QUICKLY... THOUGH...AS IT SINKS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BIT MORE MID LEVEL ENERGY TO SEEP INTO KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE... BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY...QUIET... AND WARM DAY UNDER RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SEEPS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOCATED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. USED THE BCCONSSHORT/ALL AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES... DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS. DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE TONIGHT FOR MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LATER SUNDAY THROUGH THE CWA...OTHERWISE KEPT THEM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH A LOT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING THE EXTENDED. STARTING AT 0Z MONDAY...KY WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...AND A LOW OVER LOUISIANA CONTINUING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. BEING WEDGED BETWEEN THE TWO...THE FLOW ACROSS KY WILL FEATURE WARM MOIST SOUTHERN AIR OFF THE GULF. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH DECENT LIFT AND A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD. DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BRING CONVECTION TO MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF TO THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NE. THIS INCLUDES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL RUN HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR EASTERN KY...BEING ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE BEST CONVECTION. EXPECT BY 0Z MONDAY...THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING BUT DYING OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAISED POPS BOTH SUNDAY /SHORT TERM/ AND SUNDAY EVENING FROM PREVIOUS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE HUMID CONDITIONS BUT DYING CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER RAMP UP FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED SEWARD...EDGING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND ALLOWING THE BEST MOISTURE FLOW TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL...PUTTING MUCH OF KY INTO THE MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW. BY 12Z TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE STATE...BRINGING LIKELY POPS INTO EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE EXACT TIMING OF ENTRANCE AND EXIT ARE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING...BUT EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE PEAK OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN GET CUT OFF BY DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SECONDARY FRONT DEVELOPING AND FOLLOWING IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF ITS PREDECESSOR...BRINGING YET ANOTHER BOUGHT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OVERALL MODEL UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND SET UP WILL LEAD TO STICKING CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. ANOTHER...WEAKER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW AND PRECIP MOVING JUST NORTH OF KY...WITH SOME WARRANTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE GFS...WHICH THE ALLBLEND LEANS MORE HEAVILY ON...SHOWS THIS LOW PASSING THROUGH THE STATE...AND BRINGING A GOOD DUMP OF PRECIP ONCE MORE THURSDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON HEATING AND PROXIMITY TO INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT WITH THE CHANCE POPS THAT WERE GIVEN. A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...THOUGH STILL RATHER UNDETERMINED...WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...OR MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION. ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE WARRANTS LEANING TOWARDS THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED. WITH NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RATHER UNIFORM. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT. KEPT WITH A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS EVEN THE IMPACTING FRONTS SHOULD CORRELATE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR LOWER VALLEY FOG AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING...SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHERE THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LOWEST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR MORE MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A RENEWED PICKUP IN MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BRINGING A DRIER AIR MASS TO THAT PART OF THE STATE. ON SATELLITE...A WISP OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THIS TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS DRIER AIR AND THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST...TOO...BUT MAINLY A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE IS NOTED THERE AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE VARIES MORE BROADLY WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS FOUND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHILE MID 50S ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ONE DEEP CLOSED LOW IS MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER WEAKER ONE FILLING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN TIME...THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING ALL THE ENERGY NORTH AND WEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE RIDGE DOES WEAKEN QUICKLY... THOUGH...AS IT SINKS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BIT MORE MID LEVEL ENERGY TO SEEP INTO KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE... BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY...QUIET... AND WARM DAY UNDER RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SEEPS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. USED THE BCCONSSHORT/ALL AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES... DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE TONIGHT FOR MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR LATER SUNDAY THROUGH THE CWA...OTHERWISE KEPT THEM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH A LOT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING THE EXTENDED. STARTING AT 0Z MONDAY...KY WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...AND A LOW OVER LOUISIANA CONTINUING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. BEING WEDGED BETWEEN THE TWO...THE FLOW ACROSS KY WILL FEATURE WARM MOIST SOUTHERN AIR OFF THE GULF. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH DECENT LIFT AND A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD. DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BRING CONVECTION TO MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF TO THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NE. THIS INCLUDES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL RUN HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR EASTERN KY...BEING ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE BEST CONVECTION. EXPECT BY 0Z MONDAY...THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING BUT DYING OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAISED POPS BOTH SUNDAY /SHORT TERM/ AND SUNDAY EVENING FROM PREVIOUS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE HUMID CONDITIONS BUT DYING CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER RAMP UP FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED SEWARD...EDGING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND ALLOWING THE BEST MOISTURE FLOW TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL...PUTTING MUCH OF KY INTO THE MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW. BY 12Z TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE STATE...BRINGING LIKELY POPS INTO EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE EXACT TIMING OF ENTRANCE AND EXIT ARE STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING...BUT EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE PEAK OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN GET CUT OFF BY DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SECONDARY FRONT DEVELOPING AND FOLLOWING IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF ITS PREDECESSOR...BRINGING YET ANOTHER BOUGHT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OVERALL MODEL UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND SET UP WILL LEAD TO STICKING CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. ANOTHER...WEAKER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW AND PRECIP MOVING JUST NORTH OF KY...WITH SOME WARRANTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE GFS...WHICH THE ALLBLEND LEANS MORE HEAVILY ON...SHOWS THIS LOW PASSING THROUGH THE STATE...AND BRINGING A GOOD DUMP OF PRECIP ONCE MORE THURSDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON HEATING AND PROXIMITY TO INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT WITH THE CHANCE POPS THAT WERE GIVEN. A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...THOUGH STILL RATHER UNDETERMINED...WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...OR MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION. ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE WARRANTS LEANING TOWARDS THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED. WITH NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RATHER UNIFORM. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT. KEPT WITH A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS EVEN THE IMPACTING FRONTS SHOULD CORRELATE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR LOWER VALLEY FOG INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHERE THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE THE SMALLEST. SOME VALLEY AIRPORT LOCATIONS SUCH AS I39...W38...AND K1A6 COULD GET DOWN TO AIRPORT MINS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
848 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 848 AM UPDATE...THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM THE NE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINTS WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. THE LAST OF THE STRATUS ALONG COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY SHOULD LIFT WITHIN THE HOUR. AS POINTED OUT BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS SMALL...BUT THE HRRR DOES INDICATE A COUPLE OF VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE SUN RISES TODAY, BUT EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AND CLOUDS DECREASE AS THE MORNING GOES ON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER NORTHEAST MAINE, BUT OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER MAINE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY BE CENTERED. COULD BE SOME FROST BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORIES FOR NOW, BUT SOME MAY BE NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY MORNING AND RIDGES NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM THEN DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM ...GFS ...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR SKY USED THE NAM ...GFS AND ECMWF. FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAVE USED THE GMOS. TEMPERATURE FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING THEN NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE TUESDAY EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPPER BLEND TO INITIALIZED ALL GRIDS. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: THE LOW STRATUS AND PATCH FOG IS VERY RAPIDLY DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR VFR BY 14Z. VFR CONTINUES TON. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: LOW PRESSURE PERSIST OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO LATE MONDAY. FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING NORTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2-3 FEET BUILDING TO 3-4 FEET/8-9 SECONDS. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES AROUND 1-2 FEET/9-11 SECONDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT THESE WAVE SYSTEMS TO PREDOMINATE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/FOISY SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...CB/FOISY/MIGNONE MARINE...CB/FOISY/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
614 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO SKY...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS UPDATE. FOG AND STRATUS ARE STILL MOVING ALONG THE COAST AND THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS ARE FILLING IN SLIGHTLY FROM RANGELEY TO NORTH CONWAY AND TO CONCORD AND MOVING WEST. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MESOLOW CENTER NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. LATEST HRRR FORECAST HAS THIS FEATURE DRIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND ALSO OFFSHORE AND NEAR BOSTON... WHICH IS ALREADY OCCURRING. AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES ... MORE SHOWERS WILL ERUPT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CHANCE COVERAGE OVER ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH NOON OR SO BEFORE FORCING DISAPPEARS. SAID FORCING IS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT WILL SERVE TO CUT OFF THE UPPER LOW JUST OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WASH OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S AREAWIDE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND DEW POINTS AND WINDS TAKE A NOSE DIVE. PW VALUES DROP TO ABOUT THE 15% PERCENTILE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY FOSTER CONDITIONS FOR FOG BUT ALSO FROST. THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORED LOW SPOTS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. FROST WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE LATER TODAY. FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE PRODUCING SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS. ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SUNDAY WILL START OUT CHILLY BUT THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE BY THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A WESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EVEN CLOSER TO THE COAST ON MONDAY. LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY SOME SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DOWN INTO MAINE. UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WEATHER. BY TUESDAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST... BRINGING A COOLER MARINE INFLUENCE ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SO IN SPITE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL EXISTING ALOFT... THE WARM AIR WILL NOT BE FULLY FELT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MOST OF MAINE AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S. FURTHER WEST... MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARD JAMES BAY IN CANADA... AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY EXIST A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA... WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT LATER THIS MORNING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GUSTY N TO NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG SUNDAY MORNING. LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A MOIST EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY BRING LOWER CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS KEEPS CONDITIONS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 5+ FT SWELLS MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER... THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT THAT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE THIS HIGH. EVEN SO... THE LONG PERIOD WILL LIKELY MAKE THE IMPACT OF THESE WAVES FAIRLY MINOR AND AN ADVISORY WILL NOT LIKELY BE NEEDED. && .FIRE WEATHER... LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST. LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAIN SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP TO NEAR 25-35% BY THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ HANES/KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
355 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MESOLOW CENTER NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. LATEST HRRR FORECAST HAS THIS FEATURE DRIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND ALSO OFFSHORE AND NEAR BOSTON... WHICH IS ALREADY OCCURRING. AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES ... MORE SHOWERS WILL ERUPT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CHANCE COVERAGE OVER ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FORCING DISAPPEARS. SAID FORCING IS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT WILL SERVE TO CUT OFF THE UPPER LOW JUST OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH WILL WASH OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S AREAWIDE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/... CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND DEW POINTS AND WINDS TAKE A NOSE DIVE. PW VALUES DROP TO ABOUT THE 15% PERCENTILE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY FOSTER CONDITIONS FOR FOG BUT ALSO FROST. THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORED LOW SPOTS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. FROST WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR FROST ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SUNDAY WILL START OUT CHILLY BUT THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE BY THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A WESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EVEN CLOSER TO THE COAST ON MONDAY. LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY SOME SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DOWN INTO MAINE. UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WEATHER. BY TUESDAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST... BRINGING A COOLER MARINE INFLUENCE ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SO IN SPITE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL EXISTING ALOFT... THE WARM AIR WILL NOT BE FULLY FELT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MOST OF MAINE AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S. FURTHER WEST... MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARD JAMES BAY IN CANADA... AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY EXIST A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA... WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT LATER THIS MORNING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GUSTY N TO NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG SUNDAY MORNING. LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A MOIST EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY BRING LOWER CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS KEEPS CONDITIONS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 5+ FT SWELLS MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER... THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT THAT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE THIS HIGH. EVEN SO... THE LONG PERIOD WILL LIKELY MAKE THE IMPACT OF THESE WAVES FAIRLY MINOR AND AN ADVISORY WILL NOT LIKELY BE NEEDED. && .FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST. LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAIN SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP TO NEAR 25-35% BY THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ HANES/KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1220 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEEKEND WEATHER. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... VERY WEAK SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER OVERHEAD IS BEING OVERCOME BY A SMALL BIT OF LIFTING VIS-A-VIS A WEAK H5 WAVE DIAGNOSED BY THE RAP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SLIDES SOUTHWARD...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD AGAIN FADE...AS IT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DO NORTH OF DUBOIS. REGARDLESS...NO SITE WILL BECOME WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY AT MOST TIMES. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE HEADED IN EXACTLY THE SAME DIRECTION AS YESTERDAY. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW JERSEY WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH WIND SHEAR FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK WITH...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT MOVING OVER LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO SHOULD STILL ALLOW THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO CONTINUE. CURRENT MODEL TIMING SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING...SCALING BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WERE RETAINED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PD GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF LIMITED SOUTHWARD FRONTAL PENETRATION UNDR A FLATTENED RIDGE SCENARIO...WITH SHRTWV PROGRESSION OVR THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY IN SPPRT. LONG TERM TEMPS ARE PROGGED AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THIS FLOW PTN. WPC GUIDANCE SUFFICIENTLY REPRESENTED THE SITUATION AND WAS ONLY MINIMALLY TWEAKED. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR AND LGT WND THROUGH TNGT. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHWRS AND TSTMS/RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A MON/TUE CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEK RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL MONDAY AND A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY SOUTH OF I-94. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THAT WE/LL SEE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST HRRR IS DOING A GOOD JOB SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE INCREASE WEST OF THE LAKE CURRENTLY. IT ALSO SHOWS A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN CWA THIS EVENING. I/M NOT OVERLY BULLISH ON STORMS TONIGHT. I THINK THE BEST CHANCE...AND EVEN THAT/S NOT ALL THAT HIGH...WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW CWA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING MONDAY WHEN THE LLJ INCREASES AND SOME LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WE COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A BIT TO 6.5C/KM. THE CWA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT SO WE/LL SEE DECENT INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND LI/S AROUND -2C. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WEST OF THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. A PLUME OF MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG ALSO MOVES EAST AND INCREASES TO 2K J/KG BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. I THINK THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND INSTABILITY RAMPS UP...BUT THE HIGHEST THREAT IS LIKELY SOUTH OF THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT SOUTH OF US FOR THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF NOTABLE WAVES TO RIDE ALONG IT THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA. THE FIRST CHC OF PCPN COME DURING THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM ON WED. THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY TUE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DROPPED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY WED MORNING. A DECENT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE RIDING ALONG THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TOUCH OF A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE BETTER CHCS OF RAIN TO BE FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHCS A BIT WITH LIKELY CHCS STILL ALONG THE SRN BORDER. WE HAVE PULLED THE THREAT FOR PCPN OUT FOR THE THU AND FRI TIME FRAME...AND LEFT SAT DRY. ONCE THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON WED...THE FRONT SHOULD SINK FURTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...TAKING THE ACTIVITY ALONG IT SOUTH ALSO. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A COOL AND DRY FLOW FROM THE NORTH INTO FRI. TEMPS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLE IN THE 70S WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND DURING THE DAY ON SUN. WE WILL SEE A LONGER WAVE TROUGH DIG IN FROM THE W/NW NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY DRAW A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BRING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1149 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT WOULD SEEM THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF MONDAY. AS THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES IN AROUND 12Z... I EXPECT THAT TO GENERATE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW IMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IF THAT DOES HAPPEN I WOULD EXPECT VSBY/CIGS TO BECOME MVFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS. I TIMED THIS THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE DEEP MOISTURE LEAVES BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD A BE A QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTER TAF SITES LATE IN THE DAY. NOT BEING SURE ON TIMING OR LOCATION FOR THIS I HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS. IT WILL BE WINDY MONDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOT... GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS WILL QUIET DOWN MONDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY RESULTING IN HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 RIVER LEVELS ARE DECREASING SLOWLY BUT MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS FROM THUNDERSTORMS... RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL PROBABLY RISE A BIT. QPF FROM A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...93 SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM...NJJ AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...93 MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
757 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEK RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL MONDAY AND A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY SOUTH OF I-94. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THAT WE/LL SEE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST HRRR IS DOING A GOOD JOB SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE INCREASE WEST OF THE LAKE CURRENTLY. IT ALSO SHOWS A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN CWA THIS EVENING. I/M NOT OVERLY BULLISH ON STORMS TONIGHT. I THINK THE BEST CHANCE...AND EVEN THAT/S NOT ALL THAT HIGH...WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW CWA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING MONDAY WHEN THE LLJ INCREASES AND SOME LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WE COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A BIT TO 6.5C/KM. THE CWA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT SO WE/LL SEE DECENT INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND LI/S AROUND -2C. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WEST OF THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. A PLUME OF MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG ALSO MOVES EAST AND INCREASES TO 2K J/KG BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. I THINK THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND INSTABILITY RAMPS UP...BUT THE HIGHEST THREAT IS LIKELY SOUTH OF THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT SOUTH OF US FOR THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF NOTABLE WAVES TO RIDE ALONG IT THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA. THE FIRST CHC OF PCPN COME DURING THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM ON WED. THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY TUE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DROPPED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY WED MORNING. A DECENT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE RIDING ALONG THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TOUCH OF A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE BETTER CHCS OF RAIN TO BE FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHCS A BIT WITH LIKELY CHCS STILL ALONG THE SRN BORDER. WE HAVE PULLED THE THREAT FOR PCPN OUT FOR THE THU AND FRI TIME FRAME...AND LEFT SAT DRY. ONCE THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON WED...THE FRONT SHOULD SINK FURTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...TAKING THE ACTIVITY ALONG IT SOUTH ALSO. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A COOL AND DRY FLOW FROM THE NORTH INTO FRI. TEMPS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLE IN THE 70S WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND DURING THE DAY ON SUN. WE WILL SEE A LONGER WAVE TROUGH DIG IN FROM THE W/NW NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY DRAW A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BRING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 I AM ON THE FENCE WITH REGARD TO THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY DURING THE DAY... IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. CONDITIONS START OUT SOLID VFR WITH JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS... BUT AS THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH... ARRIVING IN TAF SITES BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z... IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT MY CONFIDENCES IN THAT IS LOW SO I PUT VCTS TO COVER THAT. ONCE THE DEEP MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SOLID FORCING THROUGH. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH THIS CURRENT SYSTEM IS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SO IT THEN THAT I PUT SHOWERS WITH VCTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES OUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LAYERED CLOUDS IN THE AREA LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT ASPECT TO MONDAY IS STRONG WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...25 TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 500 FT AGL AND 3000 FT AGL. SO WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY RESULTING IN HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 RIVER LEVELS ARE DECREASING SLOWLY BUT MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS FROM THUNDERSTORMS... RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL PROBABLY RISE A BIT. QPF FROM A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...93 SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM...NJJ AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...93 MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
713 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL HANDLING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF WI...WHERE THEY HAD FEWER CLOUDS /INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY/. MLCAPES AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ARE ABUNDANT IN THIS AREA...AND AS EXPECTED SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF AWAY FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI. GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.5 IN OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 180-220 PERCENT OF NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR 1.6 TO 1.8IN. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT OR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT SLIDE INTO THE CWA. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN WI...AROUND 45MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR AREA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER...EVEN THROUGH INSTABILITY LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FAR E UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 10-15KTS...TEMPS HAVE ROSE NEAR 80F INLAND FROM LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON...AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT /MAINLY AT RACO/. THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z...AND WAS TAKEN OFF THE TOP NEWS EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO NEAR THIS AREA...BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC IS KEEPING MUCH IF ANYTHING FROM ACCUMULATING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...NOT ONLY AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 50S. THE COLD FRONT TO OUR W WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY...LIKELY AROUND SE LAKE SUPERIOR/E UPPER MI. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S OVER THE W HALF...AND LIKELY FAR E UPPER MI ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RESIDE OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z /NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THERE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST/...BEFORE EXPANDING E THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 AFTER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...FCST WILL HINGE UPON HOW FAST THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR HOW FAST IT IS FORCED E BY NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS W AND CNTRL NAMERICA. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WET WEATHER HERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA...THEN DRY WEATHER MID AND LATE WEEK AS APPROACHING MID/UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A TYPICAL SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN AS ICE FILLED HUDSON BAY AND THE CHILLY GREAT LAKES ENHANCE SFC HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT. IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...TEMPS THIS WEEK SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM EARLY JUNE NORMALS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TEMPS SOMEWHAT ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST WEATHER IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. BEGINNING MON NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR PERHAPS FAR WRN UPPER MI AND THEN ON INTO NRN ONTARIO BY TUE MORNING. BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE AS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND MIDLEVEL DRYING ARRIVES. THIS DRYING IS MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN MON AFTN MOVING INTO UPPER MI EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL HELP MAINTAIN DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE W MON NIGHT. ALONG WITH APPROACH OF THE ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROF...SOME SHRA WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE W. AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS E ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SHRA CHANCES WILL SPREAD E TUE MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING MAY FURTHER AID EXPANSION OF SHRA TUE OVER THE E. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER OVER THE E...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH ALMOST NO MLCAPE INDICATED...WILL LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT. BULK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY JUST N OF UPPER MI...SO STEADIER RAIN SHOULD PASS BY TO THE N. HOWEVER...THE KEWEENAW MAY GET BRUSHED BY THE MORE PERSISTENT SHRA TUE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CHILLY/MISERABLE AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND BRISK WNW WINDS OFF COLD LAKE SUPERIOR. FOG THAT WILL BE EXPANDING AND BECOMING MORE DENSE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/MON AND PROBABLY DEVELOPING ON NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKES WHENEVER WINDS ARE ONSHORE. THE FOG WILL CLEAR OFF THE LAKES TUE. LINGERING SHRA SHOULD END FROM SW TO NE TUE AFTN AND TUE NIGHT AS MID/UPPER TROF SLOWLY EDGES E. WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR WED/THU AS MID/UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES... HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT SOME POINT LATER WED/EARLY THU DUE TO ONE LAST SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE ECMWF IS STRONGEST WITH THIS FEATURE...FOLLOWED BY THE GEM. THE GFS IS WEAKEST AND SHOWS NO IMPACT FROM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BACKING OFF ON THIS WAVE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/PARTLY CLOUDY FCST. ALSO...CONCERNS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SHORTWAVES TRACKING E ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS AND BRINGING A SHRA THREAT TO THE FCST AREA ARE BASICALLY GONE NOW AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW DEPARTING TROF/APPROACHING RIDGE SUPPRESSING SHORTWAVES. OTHERWISE...GRADIENT NRLY WIND DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING S FROM NRN MANITOBA/HUDSON BAY/NRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD A CHILLY DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON WED. EXPECT 50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH MANY LAKESIDE LOCATIONS PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WELL IN THE INTERIOR... EXPECT 60S TO LWR 70S. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW SIDE OF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR MASS. THU NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVERHEAD. TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS MIGHT SLIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...FCST FOR FRI THRU THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS W AND CNTRL NAMERICA CAN EITHER PUSH RIDGE EASTWARD OR SUPPRESS IT. USUALLY THERE IS A BIAS TO BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO QUICKLY IN THE LONGER RANGE...SO PLAN TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN REPRESENTED BY THE ECMWF FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER FRI/SAT AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO HUDSON BAY. TRAILING...DECAYING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE MAY BRING SOME -SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI AS EARLY AS LATE FRI. WILL BE SOMETHING TO LOOK FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...WILL INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR SUN AS IT APPEARS TROF WILL FORCE RIDGE EASTWARD. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER FRI/SAT...BUT OVERALL...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 LOOK FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND FOG CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTH LAKE MICHIGAN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. EXPECT THE MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK MONDAY TO PUSH INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT IWD AND CMX. BEST CHANCE OF VIS FALLING BELOW LIFR WILL BE AT CMX FROM 06Z THROUGH MID MORNING...WHERE LIGHT WINDS MAY TURN MORE UPSLOPE/EASTERLY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FALL BELOW 3MI VIS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER THE W HALF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE E HALF. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS A LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S JAMES BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162- 240>244-263-264. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...07 MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
929 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 DENSE FOG IS MAKING A STRONG PUSH INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS OBSERVED ON AREA WEB CAMS. THIS VERIFIES WELL WITH THE LATEST HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING A PUSH OF FOG INLAND TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING MESO-LOW TO THE SW IS PRODUCING RAPID PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST AND ALLOWING THE WINDS ACROSS WRN LS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE N/NE AND DRAWING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE IN ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE ZONES AND ALSO THE LAND ZONES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND AROUND THE TWIN PORTS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV TRACK NEWD INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER S/W LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 500MB S/W WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ALLOW THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ATMOSPHERE TO BE TAPPED...AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MDT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HVY RAIN IN ISO/SCT T-STORMS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ST. LOUIS RIVER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. A SIGNIFICANT DUMP OF RAIN WAS SEEN THIS EVENING AROUND HIBBING...WITH OVER 2 INCHES IN VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WATER...COMBINED WITH THE RAIN THAT FALLS TONIGHT IN THE ST. LOUIS BASIN WILL DRAIN QUICKLY IN THE SATURATED SOILS AND CAUSE THE RIVER LEVEL TO RISE RAPIDLY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE SOGGY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST SAW LIGHT RAIN OR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE TODAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE IRON RANGE/MN ARROWHEAD. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND TRACKS OVER NORTHERN MN THROUGH MONDAY. THE PERIOD FOR BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCT THUNDER IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES INTO NW WISCONSIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE THE DRY SLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY LIMIT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE LOW AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THERE IS A CORRIDOR OF LARGE MID LEVEL OMEGA ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE LOW THAT LIFTS OVER NE MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER GOING OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY SHIFT EAST THE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A BAND OF RAIN...CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WHICH CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY TO SEE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH SOME SUNSHINE APPEARING FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S AS WESTERLIES BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WELL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO PUSH A BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME MODELS ARE PUSHING A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BY THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AND HAVE ONLY SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR NOW. HAVE HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW 70S BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS STILL IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH VCTS AROUND HIB ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FOG AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY MAKE A PUSH OVER THE HILL THIS EVENING AND IMPACT DLH AROUND 03/04Z WITH 1/2SM VSBYS OR LESS. AS A MESO-LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS WILL INDUCE A E/NE WIND OVER THE HEAD OF THE LAKE AND ALLOW THE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO PUSH INLAND. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE -SHRA INCREASE AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH EMBEDDED TS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM BRD TO HYR LATE MON MORNING...BUT REMAIN WET AROUND INL AND HIB AS THE LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EWD. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE TONIGHT AND INCREASE FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 51 61 50 72 / 80 80 60 30 INL 55 62 51 73 / 80 80 70 20 BRD 61 70 55 76 / 80 70 50 10 HYR 61 72 56 72 / 80 80 50 30 ASX 49 65 50 70 / 80 80 60 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MNZ012-019>021-025-026- 033>038. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ020-021-037. WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ001. LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148. && $$ UPDATE...BJT SHORT TERM...GRANING LONG TERM...LE AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
706 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 STILL STUCK IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN TO START THIS PERIOD...THOUGH WE WILL FINALLY START TURNING THE CORNER IN TERMS OF ROOTING THIS MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OUT OF HERE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...THERE ARE TWO KEY FEATURES THAT WILL IMPACT THE MPX CWA...THE FIRST IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER SE SODAK THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MPX AREA AS IT WORK NE THIS EVENING. THE SECOND FEATURE IS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BACK BY THE BLACK HILLS THAT WILL BRING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LIGHTER AND LIKELY MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF SW MN INTO THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. OUT THE GATE...WE HAVE SEE AN E-W ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NRN IA WITHIN A ZONE OF CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT IS GETTING FORCED UP AND OVER AN OUTFLOW INDUCED BOUNDARY. BIG QUESTION FOR THE MPX AREA IS HOW WILL THIS IMPACT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY FROM ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THIS WILL KEEP THE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE TRAINING IS MORE LIKELY...BUT MESOANALYSIS HAS SHOWN THAT MLCAPES ACROSS WRN MN HAVE RECOVERED TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OUT IN WRN MN WHERE THE SUN HAS BRIEFLY MADE AN APPEARANCE. AS THIS CLEARING WORKS EAST...DO EXPECT THE CAPE RECOVERY TO WORK EAST WITH IT AS WELL...SO LINE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE NEAR SIOUX FALLS WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO SRN MN. FOLLOWED THE HRRR TO WORK THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...AS IT HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON IT ALL AFTERNOON AND IT MATCHES UP WELL WITH HOW THE HRRR BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO MN AHEAD OF THE SODAK SHORT WAVE. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE ABOUT TODAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE IS WE ACTUALLY HAVE SHEAR TODAY...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MAINLY WIND THREAT WITH THIS LINE AS IT WORKS ENE. THERE IS GOOD NEWS THOUGH ABOUT THE ADDITION OF SHEAR TODAY...AND THAT IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AS WE HEAD FARTHER OUT IN TIME...SO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...NSSL Q3 RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A LARGE SWATH OF OUR AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH PARTS WESTERN STEARNS COUNTY UP CLOSER TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTED THIS NEXT BATCH OF STORMS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE...RECENT WET CONDITIONS HAVE OUR FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS AT INCREDIBLY LOW LEVELS AT THE MOMENT...WITH CURRENT 1 HR AND 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DOWN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. THIS SECONDARY WAVE BACK IN NODAK IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITH IT...BUT EXPECT IT TO INCREASE PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE NW CWA LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GOING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...THIS WILL WILL TRAVEL MORE OR LESS DOWN I-94...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDS. FORTUNATELY...ANY ACTIVITY WE SEE MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHTER /AS PWATS BEGIN TO RECEDE FROM THERE CURRENT LEVELS AROUND 1.75 INCHES...WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. SO FOR THAT REASON...CONTINUED TO LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE THROUGH 18Z. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 BY MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT... AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME NEED TO KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS THE NORTH INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES LINGERING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. AFTER THAT... WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... AT THAT POINT WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEP BACK NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA... CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY... FRONTOGENESIS... AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HOWEVER... CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PCPN FARTHER NORTH GIVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE 700-500MB LAYER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED NORTH AND SATURATE THINGS NEAR 700MB. SO... ALLOWED FOR CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SCOOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. NEXT SYSTEM AFTER THAT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY AS FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE ZONAL. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THEN HEADS MORE EASTERLY BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST AGAIN. MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF ANY LEAD SHORT WAVES AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT LOOKS LIKE MN/WI WILL BE BACK IN UPPER SW FLOW LATE THIS WEEK...MERITING CHANCE POPS. WITH UPPER LOW NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE BORDER... THIS WILL NOT BE AN EXCEEDINGLY WARM PERIOD...AND IN FACT...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. ONCE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT EVEN REACH 70 NEXT WEEKEND OVER CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WISC. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND STORMS THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE LATER TONIGHT WHEN SEEMINGLY NONSTOP PARADE OF STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH LOBE OF ENERGY EXTENDING SE INTO SWRN MN... AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. THIS SHOULD TAKE A FEW HOURS TO TRAVERSE NORTHEAST THROUGH ANY GIVEN LOCATION. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE IN WARM ADVECTION AREA WHICH IS STRONGEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN ATTM. ONCE THIS GOES BY...LINGERING MOISTURE AND DECREASING GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT. LOW MOVES JUST NE OF OUR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY WITH WNW FLOW TOMORROW MORNING TO THEN HELP SCOUR OUT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTERNOON HEATING AND COLD POOL COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD HELP SET OFF SOME MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL MN. KMSP...FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT MORE STORMS WILL AFFECT KMSP THIS EVENING... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1-2 MILES FOR A PORTION OF THE TWO HOUR PERIOD THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON MVFR CEILINGSS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS... BUT WE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS OR MVFR FOG DUE TO LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO GENERATE MORE SCT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15 KTS. WED...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA. WIND E 10-15 KTS. THU...VFR. WIND E-SE 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ041>045- 047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093. WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014>016- 023>028. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...TDK/TRH AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
611 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 Overall pattern has changed to a more progressive and unsettled regime through the upcoming week. While there will no doubt be periods when there will be no precipitation the proximity of a couple frontal boundaries and the vagaries of the models further out in time will make it difficult to go dry in most periods. Short term concerns will focus on the evolution of upstream convection over NE and KS and any severe threat over northwest MO. A number of Hi Res models such as the HRRR and local WRF as well as the latest NAM and GFS track the current developing NE MCS eastward. At the same time activity blossoms southward towards central KS where a strengthening southerly low-level jet feeds moderately unstable air under an increasingly diffluent flow aloft. Too many models favor this evolution to ignore. These models propagate the KS convection southeast this evening which is supported by the Corfidi vectors. As the the low level jet veers overnight it will maintain the KS MCS as it moves into southwest MO. The convection in between these two core MCSs will likely weaken as it moves into the western CWA late this evening. The severe threat will be confined to northwest MO this evening with an isolated severe wind gust possible. By sunrise the main portion of the convection is expected to be near or have exited the eastern and southern counties. However, can`t rule out scattered convection bubbling back up during the morning and afternoon hours as the southwesterly low-level jet will enhance convergence along any residual outflow boundaries as well as a weak cold front entering the CWA. Temperatures will be problematic due to any convection as well as residual cloud cover. Monday night into Tuesday could see scattered convection pop-up wherever the weak cold front stalls, which favors the southern counties. Shortwave riding aloft spreads eastward across the Central Plains on Tuesday allowing an elevated warm mixed layer to spread east while the front retreats northeast as a warm front. As has been noted for the last couple of days the combination of moderate to strong shear coupled with strong instability and the added low-level shear along/north of the warm front signal the increasing likelihood of severe storms along and north of the warm front. Models have been trending lifting the warm front further north over the past couple of runs, pushing the convection and severe threat from northern MO into IA. Wednesday could see a trailing cold front settle south through the CWA, but not before temperatures could reach 90 over the southern half of the forecast area. This boundary will become the focus for any additional rain chances. The GFS and ECMWF have settle this front to near the MO/AR border by Thursday before it stalls. Confidence has improved on this occurring and have started to lower PoPs across at least northern MO for Thursday and Friday. Convective chances increase as we head into next weekend as another moderately strong upper trough sweeps through the Rockies and forces the front north as a warm front, allowing rain chances to increase over the CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 611 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 Storms extending from southeast Nebraska into central Kansas cont to push east this evening. Using time/distance tool and hi-res model data have timed storms into the VC of STJ at 03Z and affecting the terminal between 04Z-08Z. At MCI and MKC storms will be in the VC at 04Z and affect the terminals between 05Z-09Z. Vsbys with these storms may become IFR dropping to 2-3SM at times with cigs becmg MVFR dropping to 2-3kft in storms. Storms will exit the terminals between 08Z-09Z however MVFR cigs will persist through most of the morning hours before scattering out btn 15Z-17Z. Winds will be out of the south tonight around 15kts with stronger gusts possible in storms. As the cold front approaches early tomorrow morning winds will veer to the southwest btn 10-15kts. By tomorrow afternoon the boundary will be in the VC of the terminals and winds will veer to the west btn 5-10kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJ AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1129 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight) Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014 Scattered thunderstorms have had more coverage this afternoon than yesterday. These storms are occurring in an axis of 925-850mb moisture convergence that shows up well in the latest runs on of the RAP. Still expect the storms to gradually diminish early this evening as the RAP shows the aforementioned low level forcing weakening at the same time we will lose daytime heating. Expect the rest of the night to be mainly dry with the potential for some patchy fog toward morning. MOS lows in the mid-upper 60s still look reasonable given current dewpoints. Britt .LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014 This discussion is probably starting to sound like a broken record, but once again, not much change from the prev forecast. Thru the weekend, expect much of the same as the past couple of days. TSRA will develop mid to late morning and continue into the evening before dissipating. Have therefore continued a persistence forecast thru the weekend for POPs and temps. Mdls are in good agreement bringing a cdfnt into the region on Mon as an upper trof ejects into the Plains as the upper ridge finally breaks down. This fnt shud bring TSRA to portions of the area. Latest mdls suggest stronger upper forcing further swd than the prev couple of days. Have therefore continued higher POPs as more than enuf moisture and heating shud be available for convective development. Did not spread the likely POPs too much further S due to uncertainty of how far the fnt will drift S given the better forcing remaining further N. Mdl solns begin diverging much beyond Mon and have continued a fairly persistent forecast for temps for now. Have also kept POPs in the low to mid chance range due to differences among mdl solns. Tilly && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014 MVFR fog will be the main hazard overnight, especially where rainfall occurred on Friday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the heat of the day again on Saturday. Specifics for KSTL: Only a trace of rain was reported at KSTL today, so not real excited about fog developing at the terminal. Will see a repeat on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms developing after 18Z. Light southeast wind to continue. CVKING && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
833 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .UPDATE... MADE A MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING...TO PARE BACK POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE...BUT ARE DISSIPATING OFF WITH THE SETTING SUN. OTHERWISE...THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER ON TAP OVERNIGHT. AAG && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE... A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE UNTIL A MORE BONAFIDE CHANCE OF STORMS RETURNS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH EVEN THEN THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAY ONLY COME IN AN ISOLATED DOSE. TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT MID AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS MARGINAL BUOYANCY DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. IN THE MEAN- TIME...SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND PARK CITY THIS AFTERNOON /WHERE WE HAD PEA-SIZE HAIL REPORTED EARLIER/. WE GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS ALONG WITH MOST 12 UTC GUIDANCE AND MORE RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS...SUCH THAT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 30S IN SOME WESTERN VALLEYS LIKE AROUND LIVINGSTON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS. MON...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S F IN MOST AREAS GIVEN MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE THAT TODAY. WE FOLLOWED THE 12 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED/ MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF MOS OUTPUT TO BUILD FORECAST HIGHS SINCE THAT GUIDANCE OFTEN DOES WELL COME SUMMER...AND IT HAS VERIFIED WELL ON SOME DAYS RECENTLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT...PERHAPS SLIDING AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS BY MON NIGHT...BUT THAT CHANCE IS DRIVEN BY ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SO THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS IS VERY LOW THROUGH MON NIGHT. TUE...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SHORT- WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AND IS APT TO BE AUGMENTED SOMEWHAT FROM LOCAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...SO DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN COULD BE DISRUPTED IF THERE IS ENOUGH DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OVER WESTERN SD AND NORTHERN NEB EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TUE AS SOME 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST. EVEN SO...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO YIELD MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG...AND MORE LIKE 1000 J/KG IF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT STYMIED TOO MUCH. WE ARE CARRYING 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES OF STORMS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT OVER MOST OF THE AREA /A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER PRIOR FORECASTS/. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE AND 09 AND 15 UTC SREF RUNS FOR THE 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR TO BE LESS THAN 30 KT ACROSS THE AREA AND IF THAT IS THE CASE THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN MARGINAL AND TRANSIENT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. SCHULTZ .LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN... WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES MAY COOL TO BELOW-AVERAGE VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SHOWS A MEAN 500-MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES IN THAT LARGER-SCALE PATTERN. THE FIRST OF THOSE WAVES SET FOR WED IS IN THE BEST POSITION TO HAVE ACCESS TO DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORTED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING THAT WAVE MAY BE IN THE DAKOTAS BY PEAK HEATING WED AFTERNOON WHEN IT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO FOSTER STORMS. A STRONGER WAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION THU INTO FRI MAY END UP BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND WE DID DECIDE TO LOWER FORECAST TEMPERATURES THU THROUGH SAT USING THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WE ACTUALLY CHOSE TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THAT CONSENSUS EVEN THOUGH WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THOUGH. THAT WAS IN RESPECT TO 1/ MAINTAINING SOME FORECAST CONTINUITY AND 2/ THE VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE EARLY JUNE SUN ANGLE WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH TO WARM HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IF THE SHOWER COVERAGE IS NOT TOO GREAT. SCHULTZ && .AVIATION... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING AFTER 03Z WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE NIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM COLUMBUS WEST TO LIVINGSTON MONDAY AFTERNOON. RICHMOND && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 047/074 051/077 053/076 052/071 049/068 047/071 052/079 21/B 24/T 53/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 32/T LVM 038/074 045/075 045/073 043/070 042/068 042/069 044/077 23/T 35/T 43/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T HDN 046/076 049/079 053/077 051/073 048/071 048/072 049/080 21/B 24/T 43/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 32/T MLS 048/073 050/077 055/077 055/073 048/068 049/072 051/079 21/U 13/T 44/T 33/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 4BQ 047/074 050/074 053/076 053/073 049/067 050/072 049/078 21/U 14/T 44/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 32/T BHK 046/068 047/073 052/074 052/071 047/066 047/068 048/073 21/B 12/T 44/T 43/T 33/T 33/T 22/T SHR 043/074 047/074 048/073 048/070 044/068 045/069 046/076 21/B 24/T 43/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 32/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
827 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE REMAINING KANSAS COUNTIES FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND UPDATED THE FORECAST. CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE APPROACHING LINE OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...AS THEY APPEAR TO HAVE THE MOMENTUM GOING TO REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN BOUNDARIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING PRETTY WELL HANDLING THIS LINE OF STORMS THUS FAR... EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING THIS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND 4-6Z...AND STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THIS MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 STORM EVOLUTION BEHAVED PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT CONCENTRATING OVER KS ZONES AND LESS-SO NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. HAVE ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO BE CANCELLED EARLY FOR ALL 24 NEB COUNTIES...BUT WILL HANG ONTO 6 KS ZONES AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT LONGER WITH ACTIVE STRONG STORMS IN THAT AREA...AND SEVERE STORMS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE. MAIN CHANGE IN FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS EVENING FROM EARLIER THINKING IS THAT IT NOW APPEARS THAT NEW ROUND OF NORTHWEST NEB CONVECTION MAY HAVE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF REACHING AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA BEFORE WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE...DECIDED IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO PUT IN A FEW HOURS OF SLIGHT POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF AN ORD-ORLEANS LINE IN THE WESTERN CWA FROM 9PM-MIDNIGHT. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL OBVIOUSLY BEAR CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MAKE SURE IT DOESN/T PUSH INTO THE CWA ANY FARTHER OR WITH MORE INTENSITY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES AREA...SHOULD IN THEORY BE MOST FAVORED TO BE DONE WITH CONVECTION FOR THE NIGHT PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF WESTERN NEB STORMS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 AS WAS QUITE WELL-ANTICIPATED...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE AT TIMES...HAVE BEEN ONGOING WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY BUT SURELY EXPANDING MORE-SO INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE-CRITERIA REPORTS HAVE BEEN RATHER FEW SO FAR...IN PART OWING TO A "MESS" OF STORM SCALE MERGERS/INTERACTIONS DISRUPTING INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM MAINTAINING OR REACHING PEAK POTENTIAL INTENSITY...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL NONETHELESS PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE TIME BEING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL 30 COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM...BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA IS ALREADY BEHIND THE MAIN...BACK EDGE OF STORMS AND THE NORTHERN CWA APPEARS TO BE VERY WORKED OVER BY COOLER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...SO WILL PROBABLY START TRIMMING AWAY SOME OF THESE COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. RAINFALL-WISE...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES BEYOND THE LIKELY BRIEF URBAN/STREET FLOODING TAKING PLACE IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS...AND RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE OVERESTIMATING REALITY BY AROUND ONE-THIRD BASED ON LIMITED GROUND TRUTH. NONETHELESS...A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA HAS ALREADY SEEN OR WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF 1-2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ROUGHLY I-80 AND THE KS STATE LINE. TURNING TO THE METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION AS OF 20Z/3PM...THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS IS THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOCAL AREA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ELEVATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT AT THE 700MB LEVEL HAS BEEN FEEDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF NEB/NORTHWEST KS ALL DAY...WHICH LED TO AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY-EARLIER ONSET OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT ALSO LIKELY HELPED TO KEEP MUCH OF AT LEAST THE NORTHERN CWA FROM REALIZING A MORE EXTENSIVE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AT THE SURFACE...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT AN EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD POOL FROM THE WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS STILL IN QUESTION...ITS STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE MUCH OF THE NEB CWA IS SEEING A SLOWLY-WANING SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE NOTABLE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL ORGANIZED WIND THREAT MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ALONG THE APPARENT SQUALL LINE THAT APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...WHERE MUCH OF OUR KS ZONES ARE CURRENTLY REALIZING 1000-2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF GENERALLY 30-45KT OF 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE PART OF THE CWA STILL FAVORED FOR A POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO THREAT...WHETHER IT BE WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE CELLS THAT CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES FOR AWHILE...OR WITH POSSIBLE NOTCHES/BRIEF SPIN UPS ALONG THE BACK-END TRAILING SQUALL LINE. JUST CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THIS THREAT GIVEN AROUND 20KT OF LOW-LEVEL 0-1KM SHEAR IN THE AREA. AS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS EVENING...SEE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE WITH THE SOLUTION PRESENTED BY THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS...NAMELY THE 19Z HRRR. AS A RESULT...A GENERALLY AT-MOST MARGINALLY SEVERE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS AND DEPART THE NORTHERN CWA...WHILE A HIGHER SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EITHER FROM A CONTINUATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION...OR OTHER AT LEAST SEMI- DISCRETE STORMS THAT MIGHT MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM JUST WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THAT ANY CONVECTION JUST NOW MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NEB DOES NOT SURVIVE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR AREA...AREAS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LINES/CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE DONE WITH ALL CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...EVEN MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD SEE THE MAIN COVERAGE OF STORMS DEPART TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST GENERALLY DURING THE 8PM-10PM TIME FRAME. JUST IN CASE SOME STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE NORTHWARD INTERFACE OF THE LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BASED NEAR 850MB...LINGERED SOME SMALLER POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES ALL THE WAY THROUGH 09Z...BUT THIS MIGHT BE PLENTY GENEROUS. OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING PREVAILING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ONCE THE WIND FIELD RECOVERS FROM CONVECTIVE-EFFECTS. NUDGED DOWN LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY...TONIGHT...RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S FAR SOUTHEAST. BRIEFLY TURNING TO THE MONDAY DAYTIME HOURS...THIS IS STILL ONE OF THE ONLY FORECAST PERIODS TO STILL FEATURE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK...AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREAD THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THE NEXT ONE THAT TAKES AIM ON THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT COULD STILL BE A CLOSE CALL AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE FOCUSED AT LEAST 1-2 COUNTIES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA MORE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY 10-15 MPH NORTHWEST BREEZES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ASSUMING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS...AIMING FROM LOW-MID 80S NEB ZONES AND MID-UPPER 80S KS ZONES. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 ALOFT: HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING HIGHS CONT TO DOMINATE THE HEMISPHERE OVER THE BERING SEA AND FAR ERN CANADA. THE STAGNANT LONGWAVE PATTERN BETWEEN OVER THE USA IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES THAT HAVE PUT US BACK INTO THE PATH OF MORE ACTIVE WX. SPECIFICALLY...THE NEWLY DEVELOPED RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WRN/CNTRL USA. THE PAST THREE CYCLES OF EC/GFS/GEM/UKMET ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THRU TUE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A LOW- AMPLITUDE TROF. THE NEXT RIDGE ARRIVES WED FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW- AMPLITUDE TROF WED NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER AK WILL BE FORCED SE AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY MID-WEEK AND THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WILL SLOW IT DOWN WITH HEIGHTS FALLING HERE. THAT MEANS A COOL DOWN AND PROBABLY THE COOLEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE MID MAY. SURFACE: THE TAIL END OF THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVES THRU TODAY WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL BE NEAR THE KS-NEB BORDER BY DAWN TUE. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER CO...WITH A DRYLINE INTENSIFYING AND MIXING INTO WRN KS...CREATING A TRIPLE POINT WITH THE FRONT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK E ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER WED NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO THE REGION WED...WITH THE FRONT SAGGING TO THE KS-OK BORDER. BY THU AN OCCLUDING LOW WILL BE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A WARM FRONT FCST TO LIFT THRU THE FCST AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ITS COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THERE IS THEN SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. HAZARDS: WE ARE LOOKING A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX TUE AND TUE NIGHT. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU-SAT. DID NOT LOOK AT POTENTIAL INTENSITY DUE TO ON-GOING EVENT AND TUE POTENTIAL. THE DAILY DETAILS... TUE: PLEASE CONT TO FOLLOW SPC SEVERE WX OUTLOOKS AND THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK /HWO/ AND THIS PRODUCT FOR WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE A SERIOUS SEVERE WX THREAT. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO BE UPGRADED IN LATER SPC OUTLOOKS. LLJ-INDUCED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED COULD INITIATE STORMS DURING THE MORNING HRS N OF THE WARM FRONT. IT APPEARS STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THRU THE DAY AS LLJ INTENSIFIES...PROBABLY FORMING AN MCS. THESE STORMS WILL BE FORMING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EML. THE STORMS WILL REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT AND BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE TSTMS SHOULD ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE...WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT. WHILE SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MCS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE THREATS WITH THESE AFTERNOON STORMS. USE OUR HIGH TEMPS OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH CAUTION. THEY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS/RAIN. WE CURRENTLY HAVE 77-84F ALONG AND N OF I-80...BUT MUCH OF THIS AREA COULD END UP JAMMED IN THE LOW-MID 70S. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...HIGHS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. STOCKTON AND PLAINVILLE WILL BE CLOSE TO 100F. WINDY S OF THE WARM FRONT! 09Z SREF CONTS TO LOOK THREATENING WITH MLCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. FALLING PRES TO THE W WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS BACKED WITH SIGNIFICANT CURVATURE IN FCST HODOGRAPHS. TUE NIGHT: ON-GOING TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE AND GROW INTO AN MCS THAT PROPAGATES E WITH THE SFC LOW. SO TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END HERE. WED: BREEZY IN COOL AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOP OVER S-CNTRL NEB...MOST VIGOROUS N OF I-80. CANT RULE OUT A SHWR OR A COUPLE SPRINKLES N OF HWY 92. THU: COULD SEE A COULD SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CAP. FRI: SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SAT: TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL. SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL CONTS. SUN: PROBABLY DRY UNDER HIGH PRES. CONTINUED COMFORTABLY COOL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH SHOWER/STORM-FREE CONDITIONS. SURFACE WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL PREVAIL FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 10-15KT...BUT RIGHT AWAY THIS EVENING DIRECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AND POSSIBLY GUSTY DUE TO EFFECTS OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY CAVEATS TO THIS FORECAST ARE 1) COULD STORMS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEB HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH KGRI LATER THIS EVENING AND 2) COULD THERE BE ANY LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL. FOR NOW HAVE DEEMED THE PROBABILITY OF BOTH OF THESE THINGS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT...BUT THEY BEAR WATCHING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ROSSI SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH LONG TERM...HALBLAUB AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
944 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE MCS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA HAS COMPLETELY ROBBED THE NORTHERN SYSTEM OF MOISTURE. RADAR IMAGERY OF THE RETURNS THAT WHERE MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...THE WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE. THUS...WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE IN THE AREA LIKELY STALLING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DID INCREASE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS HERE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE LIMITED FORCING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IS LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND SHOULD WEAKEN OR DECREASE IN COVERAGE. FORCING AGAIN STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY...ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA (AND NO CHANGES TO POPS/WX WILL BE MADE AFTER 12Z MON). && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 CHALLENGES INCLUDE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL. GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLING TO LATCH ONTO ONE SOLUTION UNDER COMPLEX SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SET-UP...BUT LATEST RAP/HRRR/LOCAL WRF STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIMILARITIES AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SOLAR. SFC LOW CENTER STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST NE/ SOUTHEAST SD WITHIN BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WRAP AROUND SFC LOW IMPACTING PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST HEAVIEST RAIN MAY JUST CLIP THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH MUCH OF MN LAKES COUNTRY RECENTLY RECEIVING 2 TO 6 INCHES...WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO CANCEL IF CONVECTION TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO SET-UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MINOT TO BISMARCK AND DEVILS LAKE TO JAMESTOWN CORRIDOR. STRONG RISING MOTION THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DUE TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLET AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW-MOVING BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO DO NOT THINK AN EXTENSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY. LATE TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL AND WET AS SHOWERS SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S WITH THE LAST OF THE RAIN EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 SOME FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS PACIFIC STORMS MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES GIVING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF ARE PRETTY CLOSE BUT JUST OFF ENOUGH SO THAT WE HAVE CHANCE OF PRECIP EVER DAY THU-SAT. AT THIS POINT HARD TO PICK OUT A MODEL OF CHOICE SO WILL UTILIZE THE BLEND TOOL. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES AND LOWERING CIGS. USED THE RAP GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF THESE CONDITIONS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTHING WITH THIS UPDATE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WITHIN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL SOUTH OF THIS REGION (THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW)...AS PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE (RAP...NAM...HRRR). HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...AND MERGING UPPER WAVES WILL PROVIDE RAIN POTENTIAL. STORM MOTIONS ARE SLOW...AND PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED. THUS...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...SCATTERED AREAS MAY STILL RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN. WE HAVE BEEN GETTING MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WITH THE ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE WESTERN FA...AND WITH THE SHOWERS NEAR I-94. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS WEAKLY ELEVATED THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A WEAK TORNADO. ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO CONVEY THIS THREAT...WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY 900PM. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 CHALLENGES INCLUDE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL. GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLING TO LATCH ONTO ONE SOLUTION UNDER COMPLEX SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SET-UP...BUT LATEST RAP/HRRR/LOCAL WRF STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIMILARITIES AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SOLAR. SFC LOW CENTER STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST NE/ SOUTHEAST SD WITHIN BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WRAP AROUND SFC LOW IMPACTING PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST HEAVIEST RAIN MAY JUST CLIP THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH MUCH OF MN LAKES COUNTRY RECENTLY RECEIVING 2 TO 6 INCHES...WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO CANCEL IF CONVECTION TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO SET-UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MINOT TO BISMARCK AND DEVILS LAKE TO JAMESTOWN CORRIDOR. STRONG RISING MOTION THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DUE TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLET AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW-MOVING BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO DO NOT THINK AN EXTENSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY. LATE TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL AND WET AS SHOWERS SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S WITH THE LAST OF THE RAIN EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 SOME FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS PACIFIC STORMS MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES GIVING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF ARE PRETTY CLOSE BUT JUST OFF ENOUGH SO THAT WE HAVE CHANCE OF PRECIP EVER DAY THU-SAT. AT THIS POINT HARD TO PICK OUT A MODEL OF CHOICE SO WILL UTILIZE THE BLEND TOOL. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES AND LOWERING CIGS. USED THE RAP GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF THESE CONDITIONS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ003-023-024-027>032- 040. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
547 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR...NAMELY THE 20 AND INCOMING 21 UTC RUNS...HAVE AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING. THUS...WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BETWEEN 02-04 UTC...SUSTAINED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE CONVECTION MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AS IT CROSSES THE BORDER. THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST A CONGEALING LINE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT...FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE STORMS BEGIN TO PROPAGATE INTO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06-07 UTC...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT WITH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS. ACROSS THE EAST MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT THINKING OF LOW/NIL THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE WITH SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE MODEST. A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IS FORMING IN MONTANA WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MESOSCALE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BRING A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT AS A QLCS IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 04-06Z. WILL HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING WINDS LATER TONIGHT WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST SUNDAY WITH A MORE LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE STATE...EXITING THE DEVILS LAKE AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER (HAIL/TORNADOES) IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEPT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MENTION OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...AND EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 1.00 INCH OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE REGIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND KEEPING NORTH DAKOTA UNDER A MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THUS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...LOOKING AT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY 45 TO 55. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 02-04 UTC...AND HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO KISN AND KDIK TO HIGHLIGHT THE BEST TIMING AND EXPECTED THREAT AT THIS TIME. STORMS MAY APPROACH KMOT AND KBIS LATE...AND WILL MENTION AS VCTS FOR NOW. IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KBIS AND KJMS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...WAA/JV AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
624 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 THE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FG FORCING IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND HOLDING TOGETHER WHILE THE SOUTHERN END SPREADING EASTWARD IN COVERAGE...SOON TO MERGE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF SD. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ALONG THIS NORTHERN BAND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO HAS KICKED OUT INTO PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA AND WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN CWA BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO INTERACT WITH SFC BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHEN SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA. 06Z GFS NOW SHOWING TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS (ONE ALONG SFC BNDRY AND OTHER ALONG MID LEVEL FG BOUNDARY)...AS WELL AS LATEST HRRR AND 06Z NAM. ALSO HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR BETWEEN GFK AND DVL...AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ND. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THIS FCST UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE PLACEMENT OF REDEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED OR SHIFTED TO THE EAST AS H850 LLJ TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND WEAKENS BY 12Z. THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY IS GENERALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE OVER RED LAKE ND WESTERN POLK COUNTY...BUT THE MAIN FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY WILL BE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. OVERALL MODELS TARGET SERN HALF OF CWA BUT EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS STILL QUITE VARIABLE. THROUGH 18Z...GENERALLY WILL FOLLOW THE 4KM WRF AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TODAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND UP INTO WADENA...POLK...OTTER TAIL AND GRANT COUNTIES. DO EXPECT DRY AREA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CARRINGTON-LAKOTA- CAVALIER LINE TO FILL IN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND...AS BAND OF MID LEVEL FG FORCING SHIFTS EAST (AND AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH). HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK AND BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THERE REMAINS SOME LLJ INFLUENCE. BEYOND 18Z MODELS VARY ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIP. OVERALL PREFER A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH KEEPS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHERN VALLEY FAIRLY DRY. TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY OVER NORTHWESTERN HALF OF CWA AND CHALLENGE WILL BE PLACEMENT OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON LOCATION. GFS ACTUALLY DRIES OUT MOST OF AREA IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME WHEREAS THE NAM IS QUITE BULLISH OVER MY EAST CNTRL ZONES AND THE GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TARGET THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE MAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY. SUNDAY...THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A SECOND UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS THEN LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CNTRL DAKOTAS SUN AFTN. OVERALL TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY THE TIME THIS SECOND WAVE MOVES OUT ON MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN DAKOTAS AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER FROM THE SW. SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER MINNESOTA WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA AND LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE NAMDNG GUIDANCE IS GOING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ND MON...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH...COULD SEE RAINFALL IMPACT TEMPS TO THAT DEGREE AND WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN BUT NOT QUITE THAT DRASTIC YET AS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR DAY 3. MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WE SHOULD SEE PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND GEM ARE QUICKER (GEM IS THE FASTEST) IN ENDING PRECIP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HOLD ON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ALL BUT MY SOUTHEAST...SO CHANGED PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO DECLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...IT SHOULD DRY OUT ON TUE WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FAR EAST MAINLY TUE MORNING. IT SHOULD BE DRY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT IN ALL AREAS. BY THU AND FRI...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH A COOLER AIRMASS THAN WE HAVE HAD OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 FOG AT DVL WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING AND SITE SHOULD BE VFR BY NOON. GFK/TVF WILL SEE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN ND AND ADVECT INTO NW MINNESOTA. FAR AND BJI WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTM...WITH CELLS ARRIVING BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...SPEICHER LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE PLACEMENT OF REDEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED OR SHIFTED TO THE EAST AS H850 LLJ TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND WEAKENS BY 12Z. THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY IS GENERALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE OVER RED LAKE ND WESTERN POLK COUNTY...BUT THE MAIN FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY WILL BE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. OVERALL MODELS TARGET SERN HALF OF CWA BUT EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS STILL QUITE VARIABLE. THROUGH 18Z...GENERALLY WILL FOLLOW THE 4KM WRF AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TODAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND UP INTO WADENA...POLK...OTTER TAIL AND GRANT COUNTIES. DO EXPECT DRY AREA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CARRINGTON-LAKOTA- CAVALIER LINE TO FILL IN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND...AS BAND OF MID LEVEL FG FORCING SHIFTS EAST (AND AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH). HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK AND BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THERE REMAINS SOME LLJ INFLUENCE. BEYOND 18Z MODELS VARY ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIP. OVERALL PREFER A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH KEEPS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHERN VALLEY FAIRLY DRY. TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY OVER NORTHWESTERN HALF OF CWA AND CHALLENGE WILL BE PLACEMENT OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON LOCATION. GFS ACTUALLY DRIES OUT MOST OF AREA IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME WHEREAS THE NAM IS QUITE BULLISH OVER MY EAST CNTRL ZONES AND THE GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TARGET THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE MAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY. SUNDAY...THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A SECOND UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS THEN LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CNTRL DAKOTAS SUN AFTN. OVERALL TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY THE TIME THIS SECOND WAVE MOVES OUT ON MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN DAKOTAS AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER FROM THE SW. SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER MINNESOTA WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA AND LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE NAMDNG GUIDANCE IS GOING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ND MON...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH...COULD SEE RAINFALL IMPACT TEMPS TO THAT DEGREE AND WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN BUT NOT QUITE THAT DRASTIC YET AS MODELS STILL DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR DAY 3. MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WE SHOULD SEE PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND GEM ARE QUICKER (GEM IS THE FASTEST) IN ENDING PRECIP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HOLD ON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ALL BUT MY SOUTHEAST...SO CHANGED PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO DECLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...IT SHOULD DRY OUT ON TUE WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FAR EAST MAINLY TUE MORNING. IT SHOULD BE DRY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT IN ALL AREAS. BY THU AND FRI...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH A COOLER AIRMASS THAN WE HAVE HAD OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 SIMILAR TO THE LAST SET OF TAFS...ATTEMPTED TO PROVIDE DETAIL TO THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS...WITH JUST A GENERAL FORECAST AFTER 9 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY MORNING. AT 04Z...THERE WAS AN AREA OF LIFR CONDITIONS JUST WEST OF THE VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE DVL BASIN. KDVL IS NOW INDICATING FEW004...AND ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR KDVL BEFORE SUNRISE (THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE AGREES). WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF THESE CONDITIONS ADVECT INTO THE VALLEY SITES...AT THIS POINT THAT PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPEICHER LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1136 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 LOOKING AT THE CONUS RADAR IMAGERY THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF RAINFALL ARE OBSERVED...WITH ONE OVER THIS FA...ANOTHER IN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. EACH OF THESE AREAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH THE 2-5 INCH AMOUNTS REMAINING ISOLATED. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE LAKE OF THE WOODS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ND INTO THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAS REACHED WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S ACROSS SERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS A BROAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND EDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER BASIN. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD STREETS FEEDING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN SD AND SOUTHERN MN AND INTO THE LOW LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BAND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PUSHING 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES. ONGOING ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN SD INTO ERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... WHILE DEEPER SFC BASED CONVECTION STEADILY FILLS IN EAST OF THE FRONT THROUGH SERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN. SURFACE TO 2 KM VGP VALUES APPROACH .2 TO .3 ACROSS SERN AND EAST CENTRAL ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUPERCELL TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL THOUGH HEAVIER RAINFALL AND LOW TILT STORMS WILL ACT TO REDUCE THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT. A MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA... WITH RAINFALL CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF AN INCH OR GREATER RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH BOTH ELEVATED AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AGAIN EXPECTED TO FIRE FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHUD SHIFT OVER SERN ND AND FURTHER INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MN BY SATURDAY EVENING. PWATS ON SATURDAY SHUD AGAIN APPROACH 1.5 INCHES SO THAT AREA RAINFALL OF AN INCH OR GREATER ARE LIKELY... MAINLY ALG AND EAST OF A BAUDETTE-FOSSTON-GWINNER LINE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT SOME BREAK IN THE RAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A THIRD ROUND OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA... WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH OVER EASTERN PACIFIC/PACIFIC NORTHWEST BECOMES ZONAL BY DAY 7. ALSO LONG WAVE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS THE FAST SOLUTION. THE DGEX AND NAM WERE STRONGER AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS, AND THE ECMWF WAS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS. ECMWF APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING NORTH WITH SOUTHERN STREAM AND SHIFTING SOUTH WITH NORTHERN STREAM. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTH WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF TO START AND THE GFS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DECREASED POPS FOR TUE. WILL TRIM BACK POPS IN FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR TUE NIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTH AND EAST WED AND WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR TUE AND DECREASED ONE, TWO, AND THREE DEGREES FOR WED, THU, AND FRI RESPECTIVELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 SIMILAR TO THE LAST SET OF TAFS...ATTEMPTED TO PROVIDE DETAIL TO THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS...WITH JUST A GENERAL FORECAST AFTER 9 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY MORNING. AT 04Z...THERE WAS AN AREA OF LIFR CONDITIONS JUST WEST OF THE VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE DVL BASIN. KDVL IS NOW INDICATING FEW004...AND ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR KDVL BEFORE SUNRISE (THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE AGREES). WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF THESE CONDITIONS ADVECT INTO THE VALLEY SITES...AT THIS POINT THAT PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...GUST LONG TERM...HOPPES AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING... STALLING IN OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...MOSTLY ADJUSTING ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH OBS AND ACCOUNT FOR THE RATHER MOIST AIR COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY AS 18Z MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING A LITTLE EARLIER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...PSEUDO WARM FRONT IN NE KY THIS AFTERNOON IN DEW POINT GRADIENT ON WEST SIDE OF MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS. STILL LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HTS TRI STATE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT FCST RAP SOUNDINGS STILL A BIT TOO DRY...NEED TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST. HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AT 925 MB ON 12Z NAM GOES NORTH INTO OHIO THEN BRUSHES NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM ALSO DEPICTING AN 850 MB TROF AXIS PASSING THRU WITH WINDS VEERS FROM SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. YET...CAN NOT JUMP ON THE 70 TO 80 POPS TONIGHT FOR PLACES LIKE HTS AND CRW. CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL IN OUR CHANCE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. SOME WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXS DEPICTED ON NAM AND GFS RIDING NE THROUGH OHIO ON MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES ON MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TRIED TO KEEP OUR FORECAST DEW POINTS AOA GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND WHEN EVAPORATING DEW ETC 12Z TO 14Z MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAY STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION TO START EARLY ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO TRIED TO SHOW A PERIOD OF LOWER POPS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. BEST LINE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH VORT MAX/RIPPLE AT 500MB. THE FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY JUST CLEAR TO THE CWA TO THE SOUTH...BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SO DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER FLOW SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS MOVING...SO TRAINING WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN THERE. DECENT SHEAR ALSO IN PLACE...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST ON WEDNESDAY. STILL...WITH WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE IN HWO AT THIS POINT. BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN FAIRLY MINIMAL CHANGES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE OSCILLATING SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED IN THE VICINITY AND SEVERAL WAVES...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...CROSSING THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ON WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE...SO STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE BOUNDARY FINALLY HEADING TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SO STRAYED FROM WPC THERE GOING WITH A LOWER POP FORECAST. THEN HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE AND 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS. GFS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...AND ALSO PWATS ABOVE 1.5 FOR THURSDAY...SO WILL MENTION STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS IN THE HWO. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE AFTERNOONS STRATOCU IS QUICKLY SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING. WILL SEE MID CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS BLOW OFF AS THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST SPREADS EAST. WITH HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING IN WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH MID DECK COMING IN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING STRATOCU. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MODERATE. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF FOG MAY VARY DEPENDING ON THICKNESS OF CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 06/02/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB/JR SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KTB/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
408 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIFT QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL STAY IN CONTROL THRU TONIGHT...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MILD AFTERNOONS...AND COOL NIGHTS. WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED DOWN SLOPING WARMING OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. NIGHT WILL COOL DOWN DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS UNDER WEAK OR CALM FLOW. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAVORABLE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEARBY BKN UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. BLENDED THE ALL BLEND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH THE MET NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... QUIET AT THE OUTSET OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST REGION. INHERITED MAX TEMPS SUNDAY APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM GENERALLY LOWER/MID 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AXIS OF RETURN LLVL MOISTURE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO INCH CLOSER TO THE AREA. DID NUDGE SKY COVER UP JUST A LITTLE TO REFLECT A GENERAL PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MANY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM PREV FCST WAS TO INSERT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM MENTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF NE KY AND EXTREME SE OHIO FOR JUST A FEW HOURS ROUGHLY 20Z SUN - 00Z MON. THOUGH THE LACK OF AN APPARENT TRIGGERING MECHANISM IS THE WILDCARD...WITH GOOD ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1400 J/KG AND PWATS UP TO 1.20-1.30 IN THIS AREA...CAN`T OPERATIONALLY SAY THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT POSSIBLE. ALSO...STORM MOTION IS TO THE NORTHEAST...SO IT`S FEASIBLY POSSIBLE THAT SOMETHING WHICH FORMS FURTHER WEST OR SW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MAKES IT INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA BEFORE RUNNING OUT OF STEAM. BUT AGAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY OF FOLKS WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN DRY. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST WITH REGARD TO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALSO PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. THE RESULTANT SW FLOW ALOFT FINALLY ALLOWS BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES. CLOUDS ARE A BIT TRICKY ON MONDAY...SUSPECT THE AREA WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS BUT ALSO SEE SOME PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WV LOWLANDS. AGAIN...NO READILY-APPARENT TRIGGER MECH AT THE SFC TO KEY ON FOR MONDAY BUT A VORT MAX PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES SHOULD HELP PROVIDE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SE OHIO. MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO INHERITED POPS...WITH MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST BY THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME AND LIKELY POPS NEARER THE VORT MAX NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOW/MID 80S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD. WILL PROBABLY SEE A CONVECTIVE LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST VORT MAX EARLIER MON. AFTER 06Z TUE...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS DOES ANOTHER S/W RIPPLE / VORT MAX...SO SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST BTWN 06Z - 12Z TUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH READINGS GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER...WITH ECMWF TAKING FRONT WELL OUT OF CWA...WHILE GFS DROPS IT JUST SOUTH...BUT THEN BRINGS IT BACK NORTH AS SURFACE LOW CROSSES KANSAS. BASED ON TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN IN THE APPALACHIANS...TEND TO THINK THE OSCILLATING FRONT OF THE GFS IS THE BETTER SOLUTION...BUT WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY...STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. BLENDED WPC TEMPS INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE EASTERLY FLOW CLOUD SQUEEZE SOME MOISTURE AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE MVFR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO ALSO AFFECT BKN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES...CALM SFC WINDS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS PER THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE DROPPING TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. CONSEQUENTLY...LIKE THE IDEA OF KEEPING IFR CONDITIONS UNDER DENSE FOG CONFINED ALONG THE DEEPER PROTECTED VALLEYS SUCH AS CRW...EKN AND CKB TOWARDS 12Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR MIST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST PLACES THROUGH 12-13Z. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AFTER 13Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND INTENSITY OF RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...AND MVFR CEILINGS ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/31/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
151 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NECESSARY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING WESTWARD INTO OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS BECOME NE/E...TEMPERATURES FALL AND DEWPOINTS RISE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS WERE SEEN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST IT WILL GO. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE MOIST COOL AIR FLOWING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES... WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST IS GENERALLY IN SYNC WITH THIS THINKING...SO ONLY TWEAKS WERE MADE. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND DO NOT SEE ANY REAL NEED TO MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... OTHER THAN JUST AN AFTERNOON SHOWER TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXITING FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE...ITS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THRU SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE. EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA RIDGES DOWN OVER THE OHIO AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH SOME COOL ADVECTION IN THE GENERALLY EAST FLOW...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND DOWNSLOPING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR THE LOW LANDS SATURDAY. BUT IT WILL BE COOLER AT NIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIR...LACK OF CLOUDS...AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME RIVER AND VALLEY FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY BE THE LIGHT AND STILL MOIST LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW THAT COULD BRING IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD BREAK UP RATHER QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN FROM EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BY BLENDING IN BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF TO HIGHS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER...WITH ECMWF TAKING FRONT WELL OUT OF CWA...WHILE GFS DROPS IT JUST SOUTH...BUT THEN BRINGS IT BACK NORTH AS SURFACE LOW CROSSES KANSAS. BASED ON TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN IN THE APPALACHIANS...TEND TO THINK THE OSCILLATING FRONT OF THE GFS IS THE BETTER SOLUTION...BUT WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY...STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. BLENDED WPC TEMPS INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE EASTERLY FLOW CLOUD SQUEEZE SOME MOISTURE AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE MVFR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO ALSO AFFECT BKN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES...CALM SFC WINDS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS PER THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE DROPPING TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. CONSEQUENTLY...LIKE THE IDEA OF KEEPING IFR CONDITIONS UNDER DENSE FOG CONFINED ALONG THE DEEPER PROTECTED VALLEYS SUCH AS CRW...EKN AND CKB TOWARDS 12Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR MIST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST PLACES THROUGH 12-13Z. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AFTER 13Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND INTENSITY OF RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...AND MVFR CEILINGS ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/31/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...JSH/JMV SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
948 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .DISCUSSION... LIGHTNING ACTION AND COLD TOPS FROM SATELLITE IN KANSAS CONVECTIVE LINE SHIFTING TO SOUTH- WEST PORTION OF THE LINE. HOW MUCH OF MCS AND HOW FAR PRECIP PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT STILL IN QUESTION. HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT HRRR AND LOOKING UPSTREAM FEEL CONFIDENT RAISING POP FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF I44. SEVERE THREAT ABOUT SPENT BEFORE REACHING TSA CWA OVERNIGHT. GW && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A MCS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE BVO/TUL/RVS AREAS WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/ DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS ADVANCING ACROSS KS AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE AND THEN SLIDE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN OK. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAVE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT IDEAS AS TO HOW THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE UKMET KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE BORDER. BASED ON SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THE DATA...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS INSTEAD OF LIKELY POPS. NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY OWING TO THE TIME OF DAY. MID LEVEL TEMPS AND HEIGHTS RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS SPREADS UP INTO OUR AREA. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED WITH MCS ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. LACY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 91 72 92 / 60 50 10 10 FSM 71 88 70 91 / 10 30 10 10 MLC 71 88 71 89 / 20 10 10 10 BVO 70 89 70 92 / 70 50 10 10 FYV 66 84 67 86 / 30 50 10 10 BYV 68 84 67 87 / 30 50 20 10 MKO 70 88 70 90 / 30 40 10 10 MIO 69 87 70 89 / 50 60 10 10 F10 71 89 71 90 / 30 20 10 10 HHW 71 87 70 88 / 10 10 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
932 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .DISCUSSION... A LARGE MCS OVER KANSAS WILL FACE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AS IT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL SLOW AND LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE COMPLEX. STILL...IT APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO OVERCOME THE CAP AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ONE OR TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES OF OKLAHOMA. SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE SUPPORTED BY ANALYSES OF WIND SHEAR...CIN...AND INSTABILITY IN SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA BY MORNING. BY THE TIME IT REACHES CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE. THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...ARE HANDLED ABOUT AS WELL AS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. WE MAY MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS LATER TO DEAL WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE MCS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/ AVIATION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. MVFR OVERCAST IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AREAS AND SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OK. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/ DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS...SUPERCELLS DUE TO STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 40 TO 55 KT...WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND PERHAPS INTO THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOW AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE CAP MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PANHANDLES WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST...AROUND +14C. THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN KANSAS. THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 7 PM. VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS...THOUGH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO HIGH CLOUD BASES. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGESTED THIS ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. LATER THIS EVENING...MORE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS/HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT THAT A LARGE MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER KANSAS...POSSIBLY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS STATE LINES. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS COMPLEX WILL GO AS CAPPING IS STRONGER OVER OKLAHOMA COMPARED TO KANSAS. THIS COMPLEX MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 8 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WOULD HELP TO KEEP THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZED...POSSIBLY INTO A BOWING SQUALL LINE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY TRY TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. EXPANDED RAIN CHANCES A BIT SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. ON MONDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER EAST OF A ALVA TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO ADA LINE MAINLY IN THE MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND CAP STRENGTHENS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG. OTHERWISE...VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. THE CENTURY MARK MAY BE REACHED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK BOUNDARY AND WEAKER CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MBS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 90 71 93 / 30 20 10 10 HOBART OK 69 93 71 95 / 20 10 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 73 95 73 96 / 10 10 0 0 GAGE OK 67 92 68 98 / 20 10 10 0 PONCA CITY OK 67 87 71 92 / 70 30 20 10 DURANT OK 72 87 72 90 / 10 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 23/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
722 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .AVIATION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. MVFR OVERCAST IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AREAS AND SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/ DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS...SUPERCELLS DUE TO STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR 40 TO 55 KT...WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND PERHAPS INTO THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOW AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE CAP MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PANHANDLES WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST...AROUND +14C. THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN KANSAS. THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 7 PM. VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS...THOUGH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO HIGH CLOUD BASES. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGESTED THIS ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. LATER THIS EVENING...MORE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS/HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT THAT A LARGE MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER KANSAS...POSSIBLY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS STATE LINES. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS COMPLEX WILL GO AS CAPPING IS STRONGER OVER OKLAHOMA COMPARED TO KANSAS. THIS COMPLEX MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 8 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WOULD HELP TO KEEP THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZED...POSSIBLY INTO A BOWING SQUALL LINE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY TRY TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. EXPANDED RAIN CHANCES A BIT SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. ON MONDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER EAST OF A ALVA TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO ADA LINE MAINLY IN THE MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND CAP STRENGTHENS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG. OTHERWISE...VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. THE CENTURY MARK MAY BE REACHED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK BOUNDARY AND WEAKER CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MBS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 90 71 93 / 30 20 10 10 HOBART OK 69 93 71 95 / 20 10 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 73 95 73 96 / 10 10 0 0 GAGE OK 67 92 68 98 / 20 10 10 0 PONCA CITY OK 67 87 71 92 / 70 30 20 10 DURANT OK 72 87 72 90 / 10 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 23/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
643 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A MCS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE BVO/TUL/RVS AREAS WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/ DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS ADVANCING ACROSS KS AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE AND THEN SLIDE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN OK. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAVE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT IDEAS AS TO HOW THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE UKMET KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE BORDER. BASED ON SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THE DATA...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS INSTEAD OF LIKELY POPS. NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY OWING TO THE TIME OF DAY. MID LEVEL TEMPS AND HEIGHTS RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS SPREADS UP INTO OUR AREA. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED WITH MCS ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. LACY && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK...WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 2 AM...AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT EARLIER...AND ARE GRADUALLY OOZING THEIR WAY SOUTH ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY (TO 50-70 PERCENT) IN THESE AREAS. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT OF INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...SO CHANCE POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE AREA. 1015 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS STEADILY WANED ACRS THE FA EXCEPT FOR A CLUSTER OF CELLS WHICH HAVE CONTINUED TO BUBBLE ALONG A LINE FROM THE NW CORNER OF NC SEWD INTO THE PIEDMONT TRIAD. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FRONT...PER SFC OBS AND MSLP ANALYSIS. WHILE COVERAGE REMAINS RATHER STEADY WITHIN THE CLUSTER...EACH NEW GENERATION APPEARS TO BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST. HRRR NOW REDEVELOPS ACTIVITY OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NEW RUN JUST COMPLETED OF OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW DROPS ACTIVITY STEADILY SWD THRU THE ERN HALF OF THE FA OVERNIGHT AND INTO TMRW MRNG. THESE SCENARIOS ARE PLAUSIBLE THOUGH I WONDER HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALLY LEFT GIVEN ALL THE ACTIVITY EARLIER. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCHC OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE AREA. AS OF 230 PM FRI...ONE IS HARD-PRESSED TO IDENTIFY THE REMAINS OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE STRUNG OUT NW TO SE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...SUCH THAT IT IS HARD TO SAY IF THIS FEATURE WILL EVEN PLAY ANY ROLE IN ORGANIZING ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SUBTLE CHANGES ARE NOTED AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WHILE THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY. THE MODELS WANT TO KEEP SOME COVERAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE OWING TO A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...SO THE FCST RETAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS DO A MORE CONCERTED EFFORT IN IDENTIFYING A SW TO NE GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY THAT REPRESENTS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME IDENTIFIABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER BETWEEN NE GEORGIA AND WESTERN SC...WHICH SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY...TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC WHICH SHOULD HAVE A STRONGER NE WIND ADVECTING COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION AND KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM GA AND THE CAROLINAS...TO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SE TX...AND A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER TX FILLS...AND THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BEHIND IT. AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP MOIST UPSLOPE LIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...SUPPORTING CONTINUING PRECIPITATION THERE....WHILE LINGERING INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER INTO GA ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS WITH COOLER SURFACE AIR MOVING IN. MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...ALLOWING WARM MOIST ADVECTION FORM THE GULF TO REACH NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO SPREAD EAST AS A RESULT...AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AS THE COOLER AIR MASS SETTLE IN...UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN WARM ADVECTION ENSUES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A DEAMPLIFIED PATTERN...WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST... AND MOORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTOLYTIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION LONG BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY LEAVES THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER DRYING BEHIND IT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER PERSISTING IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR MID SUMMER NORMALS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT KCLT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE TERMINAL ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER THE AIRFIELD AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... AND A TEMPO FOR SUCH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. TOYED WITH THE NOTION OF ADDING AN IFR VISBY TO THE TEMPO...BUT SHOWERS ARE TRENDING DOWN IN INTENSITY...SO HAVE OPTED FOR MVFR FOR THE TIME BEING. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR AN IFR CIG BETWEEN 09-12Z THIS MORNING...AS IMPROVING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING IN AREA OF IFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL NC TOWARD KCLT BY SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT... CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE NC PIEDMONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER NIGHT OF CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY OWING TO VERY MOIST ENVIRONS WITHIN A REGIME MARKED BY VERY SUBTLE FEATURES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH AN MVFR FORECAST AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT WITH GENEROUS USE OF TEMPOS FOR IFR/LIFR IN LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED FRIDAY (KHKY/KGSP/KAND). IN FACT...KHKY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED A LIFR CIG...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...OWING TO A WEAK E/SE UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...DIDN/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE CATEGORICAL OCCURRENCE. AT KAND/KGSP...STUCK WITH A 2SM WITH SCT LIFR CLOUDS WITHIN A TEMPO...BUT WOULD NOT AT ALL RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL PASS NEAR KHKY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL. MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT KHKY AND SURROUNDING AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE UPSTATE SC AND NC MOUNTAIN TERMINALS...WHERE VCTS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL DRYING WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY... WITH MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z KCLT HIGH 85% HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 87% HIGH 97% HIGH 92% HIGH 81% KAVL MED 75% HIGH 80% HIGH 98% HIGH 95% KHKY MED 73% MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 86% HIGH 85% HIGH 89% HIGH 85% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 84% HIGH 85% HIGH 91% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAT NEAR TERM...JDL/PM/WIMBERLEY SHORT TERM...JAT LONG TERM...JAT AVIATION...JDL
CONDENSED FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER. SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CURRENT BOUT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...TO LOWER 60S EAST. THE FRONT WILL PULL COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND AND BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 NEXT BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THAT SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE SYSTEM. HIGHS AGAIN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES...IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE A TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TOWARD THE WEEKEND. NET EFFECT FROM THIS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESS CERTAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH CONSENSUS BRINGS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LEANING MORE HEAVILY TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 CURRENTLY SEEING SOME MVFR TO IFR STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THIS STRATUS SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG FORM TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW...AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS OR FOG...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TOMORROW OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST...GUSTING 20 TO 30 KTS. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ039-040-054>056- 061-062-066-067-070-071. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081- 089-090-097-098. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014- 020>022. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
106 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .UPDATE... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... -SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY AFFECTING CSV WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH VCSH AT CKV/BNA INTO EARLY EVENING. AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT AIRPORTS...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SCT CUMULUS AND LIGHT EAST WINDS. SOME LIGHT FOG TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN MVFR VIS AT CKV/CSV. SHAMBURGER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/ UPDATE... RADAR THIS MORNING INDICATES CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ON THE PLATEAU WITH OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM FURTHER WEST IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE FORMING OVER EASTERN ZONES THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE DAY...AS LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO CHANCE AREAWIDE. LOWER LEVELS ON 12Z OHX SOUNDING ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE OVER WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS SUGGESTS SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS NASHVILLE MAY TOUCH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. BASED ON THIS AND LATEST OBS...RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY AREAWIDE AS WELL. ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SHAMBURGER PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/ UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S. AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT IT HAS LOST ITS IMPACT ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE`S WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER, AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS STRENGTHENED SO THAT WE KEEP OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE. LOOK FOR MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TODAY, WHICH WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH REMARKS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, WITH SOME LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/ DISCUSSION... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING AS WARM AND HUMID AIR HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH THESE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...STORMS REALLY CAN DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...AS THEY HAVE THIS MORNING. AN APPARENT BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM STORMS YESTERDAY HAS HELPED TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE PLATEAU. WILL KEEP A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT THE BULK OF TODAY`S ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ANYWHERE NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA...SO THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY OF THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. NO WIND SHEAR AND PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED CAPE MEANS DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES DURING EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BY TUESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BEGIN TO SEE A CHANGE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. WE FINALLY GET OUT FROM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT BECOME VERY SUMMERLIKE /-8 TO -9 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 500MB/... FORECAST SOUNDINGS START SHOWING SIGNS OF SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. WHILE THERE REMAINS NO WIND SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR INTO SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPARK MORE OF A WIND THREAT BY MID-WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A CHANCE POP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT AN INCREASE WIND THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WHILE THIS IS A WEAK FEATURE...ANY FORM OF LIFT IN THIS WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SPELL MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BOTTOM LINE...THESE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...AND PUSHING 70 DEGREES BY MID-WEEK. UNGER AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. FOG ALREADY BRINGING IFR VIS TO CSV AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH CSV/CKV OVERNIGHT. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS. LIGHT EAST WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SHAMBURGER && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1058 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .UPDATE... RADAR THIS MORNING INDICATES CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ON THE PLATEAU WITH OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM FURTHER WEST IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE FORMING OVER EASTERN ZONES THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE DAY...AS LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO CHANCE AREAWIDE. LOWER LEVELS ON 12Z OHX SOUNDING ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE OVER WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS SUGGESTS SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS NASHVILLE MAY TOUCH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. BASED ON THIS AND LATEST OBS...RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY AREAWIDE AS WELL. ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SHAMBURGER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/ UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S. AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT IT HAS LOST ITS IMPACT ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE`S WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER, AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS STRENGTHENED SO THAT WE KEEP OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE. LOOK FOR MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TODAY, WHICH WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH REMARKS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, WITH SOME LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/ DISCUSSION... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING AS WARM AND HUMID AIR HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH THESE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...STORMS REALLY CAN DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...AS THEY HAVE THIS MORNING. AN APPARENT BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM STORMS YESTERDAY HAS HELPED TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE PLATEAU. WILL KEEP A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT THE BULK OF TODAY`S ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ANYWHERE NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA...SO THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY OF THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. NO WIND SHEAR AND PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED CAPE MEANS DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES DURING EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BY TUESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BEGIN TO SEE A CHANGE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. WE FINALLY GET OUT FROM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT BECOME VERY SUMMERLIKE /-8 TO -9 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 500MB/... FORECAST SOUNDINGS START SHOWING SIGNS OF SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. WHILE THERE REMAINS NO WIND SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR INTO SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPARK MORE OF A WIND THREAT BY MID-WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A CHANCE POP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT AN INCREASE WIND THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WHILE THIS IS A WEAK FEATURE...ANY FORM OF LIFT IN THIS WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SPELL MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BOTTOM LINE...THESE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...AND PUSHING 70 DEGREES BY MID-WEEK. UNGER AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. FOG ALREADY BRINGING IFR VIS TO CSV AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH CSV/CKV OVERNIGHT. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS. LIGHT EAST WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SHAMBURGER && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
305 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO OUR REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. DO NOT BELIEVE THE NAM CONVECTION WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NW NC MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A RESULT OF UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE HRRR HAS BACK OFF ON POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...WHILE RNK-WRFARW...GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE FAVOR RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. BUT WITH DRY AIR DO NOT EXPECT ANY DENSE FOG LIKE PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AND PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. USED ADJMAVBC FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY... INCREASING HUMIDITY THIS PERIOD AS SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD INTO SRN ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL FLATTEN AS A RESULT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH SOME HINT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. GOING TO SEE SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE TUESDAY WITH A WAVE MOVING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYS END. NOTICED MODELS HINTING AT A POSSIBLE LINE OF CONVECTION PER ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER FLOW AND THE PVA FORECAST. WITH ALL MODELS PAINTING MORE QPF IN THE WEST TUESDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR...WITH 40-50 POPS TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND 30 POPS PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WARM TO THE LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT...AS DEWPOINTS HEAD INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER RIDGES OF THE WEST...TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS...AND MID 80S EAST...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 1-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY DRY...THINK AIRMASS WILL HEAT UP FASTER WITH LESS CLOUDS. TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE WARMER ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT SINCE 8H TEMPS PUSH FROM +13-16C MONDAY TO +16-18C TUESDAY. SHOULD ALSO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER WEST BUT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER TIMING OF POSSIBLE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY IMPACT THE TEMP RISE. ATTM...WE ARE GOING WITH LOWER TO MID 80S WEST...70S HIGHEST RIDGES...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST. THIS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE KY/VA BORDER BY 12Z WED. WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY.. GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN....AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS IN A WEST-EAST SETUP GIVEN FLATTER FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE WARM BUT WILL BE IMPACTED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME. MODELS IN GENERAL IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC WED-FRIDAY AND SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO VA BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY. TIMING ISSUES WITH MODELS AND SHORTWAVES/ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ATTM...WILL KEEP PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST MAINTAINING HIGHER THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT-MORNING TIME FRAME. LATEST 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY TRYING TO BUILD THE 5H RIDGE BACK NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY NEXT SATURDAY WHICH BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH INTO MD/PA. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY... DIFFUSE BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. THE PUNCH OF DRIER AIR HAS ERODE THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVER BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE DRIER NE/E FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT DENSE FOG LIKE PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN A FEW RIVER VALLEYS. LWB HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY. WINDS NE-SE AROUND 8-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NE U.S. ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE NEXT CHANCE AT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING POPS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. && .EQUIPMENT... THE BLF OBSERVATION WILL REMAIN UNAVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE BECAUSE OF A COMMS ISSUE. WE ARE STILL ABLE TO DIAL INTO THE SITE. HOWEVER...THE BLF TAF WILL REMAIN AMD NOT SKED UNTIL THE COMMS ISSUE IS RESOLVED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...KK/RAB EQUIPMENT...RAB/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
235 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY. COOLER...MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 1010 PM EDT FRIDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS LATE THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTION SLOWLY WEAKENS ACROSS NW NC AND GRAYSON/CARROLL COUNTY AREAS OF SW VA. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IF ANY LTG DETECTED IN THESE SHOWERS LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH ANYMORE...LESS THAN AN INCH PER HOUR...BUT MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT SOME ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CONFINED TO WILKES AND YADKIN COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY...AND HRRR DEPICTS THIS IDEA BEST...ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER MODELS HANG TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH ENTIRE NIGHT. SLOWLY REDUCE POPS ALL NIGHT DOWN ION FAR SW WITH ONLY A SMALL AREAS OF SLIGHT CHC BY MORNING BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ALL PRECIP IS GONE BY 2 OR 3AM. BIG QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT IS AMOUNT OF STRATUS THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH THINK STRATUS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT AND PERHAPS LIMITED TO NEAR BLUE RIDGE AND NRV. BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON OVERALL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST...BUT THINK VALLEY FOG WILL EVENTUALLY FORM AS WELL AS ALONG BLUE RIDGE AND MUCH OF PIEDMONT AS WELL. NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY... MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR AND REDUCE SKY COVER OVER SE WV PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. STILL EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO FILL IN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND INTO ROA AND NRV AFTER SUNSET...BUT MAY STAY RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE A LITTLE LONGER IN FAR WEST. ISOLD SHWRS NORTH OF ROANOKE SHOULD QUICKLY DIE WITH SUNSET...BUT SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER IN NW NC AND AROUND GALAX TO HILLSVILLE MAY PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT SINCE IN VICINITY OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MODELS SUGGEST WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERS THERE INTO LATE EVENING. KEEPING ALL POPS BELOW LIKELY BUT KEPT SOME MID CHANCE A LITTLE LONGER INTO EVENING DOWN IN NC FOOTHILLS. SOME MINOR CONCERNS ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL AS THESE STORMS ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST BUT MAY LINE UP MORE DURING EVENING. STILL...NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES...LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT IF THEY LINGER OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR AWHILE...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAD AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN YESTERDAY...COULD BE SOME MINOR ISSUES WITH WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY... DIFFUSE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC BASED CAPES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMB TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH LIS AROUND MINUS 4 ACROSS SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND LIFE SPAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN SHARP CONTRAST...MARINE AMS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO ERODE AND HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN. HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH SUN ANGLE AND MIXING WILL BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED THAT WEST EDGE OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP BEFORE SUNSET. DECIDED TO PLAY POPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST BASICALLY WEST OF I77. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...KEPT ISOLATED SCATTERED POPS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. THE SWODY2 HAS PUSHED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT OR LIFT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE A CHALLENGE WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. RAISED HIGHS UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY... DIFFUSE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE DELMARVA SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH THEN BECOMES POSITIONED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. EXPECTING A DRY FINISH TO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY OR UNTIL THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHALLOW UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...BKN SORT OF CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SCATTERED SUNDAY. BY MONDAY TENDENCY WILL BE FOR MODERATE CU FORMATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND HIGHER CAPE. H85 TEMPS OF 8C IN THE VA PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO 15C ON MONDAY. SUNDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A WINNER IN TERMS OF COMFORT FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY... THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NORTH OF THIS RIDGE...A MORE ZONAL TYPE PATTERN WILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONUS...ALTHOUGH VERY NOISY...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIPPLING EAST WITHIN THE FASTER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHEAST STATES WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL FAVOR A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOTHING ORGANIZED PER SE OR LASTING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME...BUT MAINLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. IF THERE IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO BEING ORGANIZED IT WILL MOST LIKELY COME FROM SOMETHING GENERATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT...THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR A SQUALL LINE. OUTSIDE OF THIS UPSTREAM THREAT...LOCAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE GREATEST. WITH WESTERLY SORT OF WINDS ALOFT...A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE PIEDMONT WHICH WILL AID IN SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE TOO. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY... DIFFUSE BACKDOOR FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALSO FINALLY PUSH DRY AIR FROM THE NE AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...FOR TODAY...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BANK UP AGAINST THE ALLEGHANYS IN THE EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW. COMPARED TO FRI...THESE CLOUDS WILL TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD BLF/LWB/BCB/DAN BUT WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR TOWARD AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH FOG THIS MORNING AS FRI EITHER...WITH AREAS OF MVFR VIS IN BR THROUGH 14Z...WITH PATCHY IFR BR MAINLY LWB THROUGH 14Z. WINDS NE-SE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 5-7KTS TO AROUND 8-10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NE U.S. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE NEXT CHANCE AT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNS BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK/SK SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL OCCASIONALLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT INLAND...WITH OCCASIONAL NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS SET OFF A THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT ADAMS...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LIGHTNING DETECTION IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OUT OF THIS...MAINLY IN KLICKITAT AND YAKIMA COUNTIES...BUT A COUPLE IN SKAMANIA COUNTY AS WELL. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE E-SE TODAY...BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE CASCADES MOUNT HOOD NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH DECIDEDLY ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BUT A WARM AIR MASS ALOFT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER WRN CANADA INTO THE PAC NW IS PROMOTING THIS ONSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...GOOD MIXING ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +10 DEG C SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD RETREAT TO THE COAST BY MIDDAY... WITH PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS SAME OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER...KEEPING FLOW ONSHORE AND TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE 70S. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GATHER ALONG THE COAST...KEEPING THEM CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES FOR HIGHS. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY RETREAT TO THE COAST BY MIDDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAGLE .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FROM OUR CURRENT PATTERN WELL INTO THE COMING WEEK. IT APPEARS FLOW ALOFT TURNS ANTICYCLONIC BY TUE AFTERNOON... WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT CAPPING ANY INSTABILITY. THUS WE DECIDED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE CASCADES TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OUR CURRENT WEAK UPPER TROUGH JUST GETS REPLACED BY ANOTHER BY THURSDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT W-NW FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST...WITH NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS TO BRING A THREAT OF MUCH MORE THAN AREAS OF COASTAL DRIZZLE. SFC PRES GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN DECIDEDLY ONSHORE...KEEPING INLAND TEMPS FROM GETTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PERSISTENT COASTAL LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT BURN BACK TO THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LEAVING PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. WEAGLE && .AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE N AND CENTRAL OREGON COASTLINE. INCREASING MVFR ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL RIVER DRAINAGES AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR THESE CLOUDS WILL PENETRATE INLAND...BUT LOCAL MVFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE OVER THE SW WA LOWLANDS AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO KPDX AND VICINITY. /27 KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL AND VICINITY AROUND 13Z. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM WILL DISSIPATE BY 17Z. WEISHAAR && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC HOLDING FIRM...AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GFS MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE SURFACE FEATURES WELL. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT WIND SPEEDS 18Z TODAY THROUGH 06Z SUN. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS A BIT MORE TO THE S SAT AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY. THUS...THE S WA WATERS MAY NOT ACHIEVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS. THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE LONGER PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEAS TO BE RELATIVELY STEEP AND CHOPPY AS WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE WA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN FRESH NW SWELL PUSHING 10 FT BY TUE. WEISHAAR && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1030 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... The Inland Northwest will undergo a warming trend this weekend. Many areas will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. The majority of the region will remain dry through the middle of next week. However, the mountainous regions of north Idaho and northern Washington will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Evening update: Scattered thunderstorm activity that has been mainly be confined to Kittitas and Yakima counties but is starting to drift northward into southern Chelan County. There have not been any strikes observed in Chelan County but a few cells near the crest could still strengthen over the next hour. With the sun setting, the main threat with this activity will transition to isolated showers. Latest HRRR is doing well with the placement of this activity and takes it to the northeast while falling apart upon reaching southern Okanogan County. Consequently, a few light showers are expected to pass through Wenatchee... Waterville Plateau...and eastern reaches of Chelan County over the next few hours then wane by 06z. The next feature of note is a midlevel circulation that came from northern CA and is driving thunderstorms across Central Oregon. Clouds and any shower activity with this feature will spread into SE WA and the lower ID Panhandle between 6-12z. A few light showers will be possible but once again, the threat for thunder is low (not entirely impossible) but too low to differ from the dayshifts thoughts which advertised showers over thunderstorms. I did spread the threat for sprinkles and light showers northward into Pullman/Lewiston and increased cloud cover. This also lead to raising overnight temperatures for most locations south of line from Mullan to La Crosse. /sb && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all terminals through 06z Sat. The sct t-storm activity that was over the Cascades has waned to showers. Steering flow will drift the convective debris and a some sprinkles over KEAT at times. A second cluster of elevated showers tracking NE through Oregon is currently near KPDT. This activity is also expected to weaken and only bring the threat for increased clouds and a few light showers in the vcnty of KLWS/KPUW. Aft 20z...aftn heating and presence of upper-low over the region will renew the threat for -shra and isold -tsra mainly across the mtns but with the best instability focusing in the ID Panhandle and Blue Mtns...may see a few -shra vcnty KLWS/KPUW. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 50 78 51 79 53 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 10 Coeur d`Alene 48 78 48 78 50 80 / 0 10 10 10 10 10 Pullman 49 77 46 77 48 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 55 84 53 84 55 88 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 Colville 45 78 48 80 50 84 / 10 20 10 10 10 10 Sandpoint 45 77 45 78 47 80 / 0 20 20 10 10 10 Kellogg 47 75 48 75 50 80 / 10 30 20 10 10 10 Moses Lake 49 84 52 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 53 84 59 86 61 88 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 43 82 51 85 53 87 / 10 10 0 10 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INCLUDE ONE NEAR DULUTH...ANOTHER STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA AND A THIRD OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE TAIL END OF THE DULUTH SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH LACK OF CAPPING AND MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG HAS SUPPORTED NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN WI INTO SOUTHEAST MN. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S HAS HELPED SUPPORT THE MUCAPE VALUES. HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN A BIG CONCERN WITH THE STORMS AS THE OVERALL 0-6KM SHEAR IS 20 KT OR LESS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS BEEN RUNNING 1.6-1.8 INCHES. HOWEVER...HAVE ALSO HAD TO CONTEND WITH SOME WIND WITH 0-3KM SHEAR RUNNING 20-30 KT...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO HELP PRODUCE WET . MEANWHILE...TO OUR SOUTHWEST...NUMEROUS CONVECTION WAS PRESENT OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THERE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MN BACK THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WAS ALSO PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FORCE THE CONVECTION. TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL HANDLING CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY WITH CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THUS...MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS BASED ON ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND OTHER CONVECTIVE SIGNALS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. CONVECTION CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS A BIG TIE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...ANTICIPATING A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER SUNSET. ADDITIONALLY...THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTED BY THE SHORTWAVES OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS SUGGEST THESE TWO SHORTWAVES MAY MERGE...LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. GOOD DPVA SIGNAL...ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER INCREASE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES. THUS...BELIEVE SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EITHER AS SOON AS LATE THIS EVENING...OR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE DONE WITH AFTER 12Z...OR PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL MAINTAINED IN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LOW WITH 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR MOSTLY UNDER 20 KT THROUGH 06Z. THE SHEAR DOES TICK UP TOWARDS 12Z...TO 20- 30KT...BUT THERE IS BIG UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND. THUS...FEEL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. REGARDING THAT RAIN THREAT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN RECENT RAIN...THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE INFORMATION IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY SLOT SHOULD BE PUNCHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER NORTHERN MN. MEANWHILE...THE CURRENT COLD FRONT OFF IN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO PASS COMPARED TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY 19Z...THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR LA CROSSE. THE QUESTION IS IF ENOUGH RECOVERY AND CONVERGENCE CAN OCCUR ON THE FRONT TO COUNTERACT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HAVE CARRIED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE EVENT IT CAN OCCUR. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS STILL ONLY 20-30KT...SO AT MOST MAYBE SOME SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ASSUMING CONVECTION FIRES. ANY CONVECTION WILL PUSH OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH THE AREA LIKELY DRY AFTER 00Z. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON AN UPPER LOW COMING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. FIRST...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN MN UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT...TRACKING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-94 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWER ACTIVITY VS THUNDERSTORM GIVEN TIME OF NIGHT AND COOLER AIRMASS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SAY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... HEADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SHEARED OUT WAVE. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN MCS AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS MCS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A BOW ECHO...SHOULD PROPAGATE AT LEAST TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWING THE MID- LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...CORFIDI VECTORS AND THOSE THAT FORWARD PROPAGATE SUGGEST EVEN A BIT MOVEMENT SOUTH OF DUE EAST. THUS... BELIEVE THE 01.12Z NAM AND 01.09Z SREF MEAN ARE INCORRECT BRINGING THE MCS NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 01.12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF LOOK MUCH MORE REALISTIC... KEEPING IT TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE SHIFTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE CHANCES COULD BE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN LATER FORECASTS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THEN SHOULD TAKE HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM CANADA. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT SHOULD ALSO HELP FOR THE DRY FORECAST BY PUTTING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO DIG DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE REGION BY SUNDAY. DPVA FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH PLUS SOME MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...CHANCES EXIST IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 AREA OF SHRA/TS MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY INDICATE VIA RADAR POST THIS AREA...AND THE NAM12/HRRR/RAP13 SUGGEST THAT AFTER THIS MOVES THOUGH /09Z/...THAT COULD BE IT FOR KRST/KLSE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND ANOTHER PERTURBATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...COULD SPARK ISOLD -SHRAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT KRST/KLSE WOULD BE IMPACTED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH. A SFC LOW/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP IN MONDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD BRING SOME MVFR CIGS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUBSIDENCE POST THE SYSTEM SHOULD SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL MIXING LEADING TO STRONGER/GUSTY WEST WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 18...BROUGHT ANYWHERE FROM 1/4 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES PER RADAR ESTIMATES. IN FACT...THE AUSTIN AWOS REPORTED 1.74 INCHES IN 1 HOUR...BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM...WITH HEAVIER CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH THERE. STREET FLOODING WAS OBSERVED IN AUSTIN DUE TO THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATE. GIVEN THAT THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY NOT DIMINISH UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONCERNED ANOTHER 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THEN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTERING WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MN WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THUS...VERY CONCERNED WE COULD END UP WITH SOME FLOODING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 18 SEEM MOST FAVORABLE GIVEN RAIN LOCATION TODAY...SO LEFT OUT FAYETTE...CLAYTON AND GRANT. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RIVERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF THE RAIN RUNS THROUGH THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY BRING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT LOCATION. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055. FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WIZ032. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MNZ079. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR IAZ008>011-018- 019. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM....AJ AVIATION.....RIECK HYDROLOGY....AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1047 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 FFG NUMBERS FOR CALUMET FOR 3 HOURS ABOUT 1.65 INCHES OF RAIN. WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY...MAY INSTEAD NEED TO GO WITH AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING OR POSSIBLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES. WATCHING THE RAINFALL RATES NEXT SCAN OR TWO. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREAS AND ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ML CAPES OVER 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER CELLULAR IN NATURE BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SLOW CONGEALING TREND FROM NORTHERN IOWA TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN POSSIBLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THOUGH HAVE A HAD A FEW WIND REPORTS TO 45 MPH...THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE FLASH FLOODING IN THE CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN CORRIDOR. THE DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS IS NOT QUITE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW...SO CONCERNS THAT THE OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME. WILL PASS ALONG THE CONCERNS TO THE EVENING SHIFT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TONIGHT...RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBTLE FEATURES TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TRAILING END OF ONE VORT MAX WILL BE DEPARTING FAR NE WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE ANOTHER TAIL OF A VORT WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROBBING THE MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD...AND FOCUSING THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS HERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BUT ONCE THESE FEATURES EXIT...THINK WILL SEE A GENERAL DIMINISHING PRECIP TREND AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT IS LOST. AFTER PLENTY OF RAINFALL IN SPOTS TODAY AND A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...SUPPORT IS THERE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATER TONIGHT. WILL FOCUS THE STRONGER FOG WORDING OVER CENTRAL AND N-C WISCONSIN WHERE MOS GUIDANCE HITS THE LOWER VSBYS HARDER. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...FORCING ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED CAPES REACHING 600 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS AROUND 20 KTS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LLJ LATE TONIGHT AND A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HIGHER IF THIS DEVELOPS. BUT CURRENTLY THINKING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN THAN A SEVERE THREAT. MUGGY NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE 60S. MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NE TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT DRAGS A COOL FRONT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SINCE WINDS ARE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FORCING ALOFT IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION LOOKS MORE ROBUST AND THINK WILL DRIVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH FORCING ALOFT INCREASING DURING THE MORNING...THINK WILL SEE AN AREA OF STORMS MOVE FROM SW TO NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ML CAPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 700-1000 J/KG RANGE WHILE BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS OVER NE WISCONSIN. IF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DO NOT HOLD TEMPS BACK...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER NE WISCONSIN. RATHER SKINNY CAPE SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND TO GO ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 WILL BE BRIEF...AS NEAR-SEVERE TSTMS HAVE KEPT US BUSY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL STILL HAVE LINGERING POPS MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND ON TUESDAY FOR SOME LIGHT WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED SOME SMALL POPS OVER C/EC WI ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HUDSON BAY IS EXPECTED SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STORMS. VFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN TO IFR CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE.........TDH SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
651 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREAS AND ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ML CAPES OVER 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER CELLULAR IN NATURE BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SLOW CONGEALING TREND FROM NORTHERN IOWA TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN POSSIBLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THOUGH HAVE A HAD A FEW WIND REPORTS TO 45 MPH...THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE FLASH FLOODING IN THE CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN CORRIDOR. THE DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS IS NOT QUITE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW...SO CONCERNS THAT THE OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME. WILL PASS ALONG THE CONCERNS TO THE EVENING SHIFT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TONIGHT...RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBTLE FEATURES TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TRAILING END OF ONE VORT MAX WILL BE DEPARTING FAR NE WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE ANOTHER TAIL OF A VORT WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROBBING THE MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD...AND FOCUSING THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS HERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BUT ONCE THESE FEATURES EXIT...THINK WILL SEE A GENERAL DIMINISHING PRECIP TREND AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT IS LOST. AFTER PLENTY OF RAINFALL IN SPOTS TODAY AND A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...SUPPORT IS THERE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATER TONIGHT. WILL FOCUS THE STRONGER FOG WORDING OVER CENTRAL AND N-C WISCONSIN WHERE MOS GUIDANCE HITS THE LOWER VSBYS HARDER. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...FORCING ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED CAPES REACHING 600 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS AROUND 20 KTS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LLJ LATE TONIGHT AND A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HIGHER IF THIS DEVELOPS. BUT CURRENTLY THINKING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN THAN A SEVERE THREAT. MUGGY NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE 60S. MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NE TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT DRAGS A COOL FRONT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SINCE WINDS ARE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FORCING ALOFT IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION LOOKS MORE ROBUST AND THINK WILL DRIVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH FORCING ALOFT INCREASING DURING THE MORNING...THINK WILL SEE AN AREA OF STORMS MOVE FROM SW TO NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ML CAPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 700-1000 J/KG RANGE WHILE BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS OVER NE WISCONSIN. IF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DO NOT HOLD TEMPS BACK...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER NE WISCONSIN. RATHER SKINNY CAPE SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND TO GO ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 WILL BE BRIEF...AS NEAR-SEVERE TSTMS HAVE KEPT US BUSY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL STILL HAVE LINGERING POPS MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND ON TUESDAY FOR SOME LIGHT WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED SOME SMALL POPS OVER C/EC WI ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HUDSON BAY IS EXPECTED SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STORMS. VFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN TO IFR CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
630 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INCLUDE ONE NEAR DULUTH...ANOTHER STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA AND A THIRD OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE TAIL END OF THE DULUTH SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH LACK OF CAPPING AND MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG HAS SUPPORTED NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN WI INTO SOUTHEAST MN. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S HAS HELPED SUPPORT THE MUCAPE VALUES. HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN A BIG CONCERN WITH THE STORMS AS THE OVERALL 0-6KM SHEAR IS 20 KT OR LESS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS BEEN RUNNING 1.6-1.8 INCHES. HOWEVER...HAVE ALSO HAD TO CONTEND WITH SOME WIND WITH 0-3KM SHEAR RUNNING 20-30 KT...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO HELP PRODUCE WET . MEANWHILE...TO OUR SOUTHWEST...NUMEROUS CONVECTION WAS PRESENT OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THERE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MN BACK THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WAS ALSO PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FORCE THE CONVECTION. TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL HANDLING CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY WITH CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THUS...MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS BASED ON ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND OTHER CONVECTIVE SIGNALS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. CONVECTION CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS A BIG TIE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...ANTICIPATING A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER SUNSET. ADDITIONALLY...THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTED BY THE SHORTWAVES OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS SUGGEST THESE TWO SHORTWAVES MAY MERGE...LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. GOOD DPVA SIGNAL...ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER INCREASE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES. THUS...BELIEVE SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EITHER AS SOON AS LATE THIS EVENING...OR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE DONE WITH AFTER 12Z...OR PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL MAINTAINED IN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LOW WITH 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR MOSTLY UNDER 20 KT THROUGH 06Z. THE SHEAR DOES TICK UP TOWARDS 12Z...TO 20- 30KT...BUT THERE IS BIG UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND. THUS...FEEL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. REGARDING THAT RAIN THREAT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN RECENT RAIN...THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE INFORMATION IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY SLOT SHOULD BE PUNCHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER NORTHERN MN. MEANWHILE...THE CURRENT COLD FRONT OFF IN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO PASS COMPARED TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY 19Z...THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR LA CROSSE. THE QUESTION IS IF ENOUGH RECOVERY AND CONVERGENCE CAN OCCUR ON THE FRONT TO COUNTERACT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HAVE CARRIED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE EVENT IT CAN OCCUR. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS STILL ONLY 20-30KT...SO AT MOST MAYBE SOME SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ASSUMING CONVECTION FIRES. ANY CONVECTION WILL PUSH OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH THE AREA LIKELY DRY AFTER 00Z. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON AN UPPER LOW COMING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. FIRST...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN MN UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT...TRACKING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-94 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWER ACTIVITY VS THUNDERSTORM GIVEN TIME OF NIGHT AND COOLER AIRMASS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SAY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... HEADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SHEARED OUT WAVE. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN MCS AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS MCS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A BOW ECHO...SHOULD PROPAGATE AT LEAST TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWING THE MID- LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...CORFIDI VECTORS AND THOSE THAT FORWARD PROPAGATE SUGGEST EVEN A BIT MOVEMENT SOUTH OF DUE EAST. THUS... BELIEVE THE 01.12Z NAM AND 01.09Z SREF MEAN ARE INCORRECT BRINGING THE MCS NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 01.12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF LOOK MUCH MORE REALISTIC... KEEPING IT TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE SHIFTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE CHANCES COULD BE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN LATER FORECASTS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THEN SHOULD TAKE HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE FROM CANADA. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT SHOULD ALSO HELP FOR THE DRY FORECAST BY PUTTING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO DIG DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE REGION BY SUNDAY. DPVA FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH PLUS SOME MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...CHANCES EXIST IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC BOUNDARY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...JUICY ATMOSPHERE AND INSTABILITY ALL HAVING ROLES IN THE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TS ACROSS THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE POST A DEPARTING WEAK RIPPLE ALOFT IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF DECREASING PCPN AROUND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CURRENTLY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. TRENDS IN THE MESO MODELS...HRRR/RAP13...ARE TO PULL THE PCPN EAST OF KRST/KLSE OVERNIGHT...ENDING BETWEEN 09-12Z. NAM12 HANGS ONTO THE THREAT FOR MUCH LONGER...BUT IT LOOKS TOO SLOW WITH ITS MOVEMENT ON THE SHORTWAVE. WILL TREND TOWARD A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR TIMING FOR NOW. A SFC LOW/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP IN MONDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD BRING SOME MVFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS. SUBSIDENCE POST THE SYSTEM SHOULD SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL MIXING LEADING TO STRONGER/GUSTY WEST WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 18...BROUGHT ANYWHERE FROM 1/4 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES PER RADAR ESTIMATES. IN FACT...THE AUSTIN AWOS REPORTED 1.74 INCHES IN 1 HOUR...BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM...WITH HEAVIER CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH THERE. STREET FLOODING WAS OBSERVED IN AUSTIN DUE TO THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATE. GIVEN THAT THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY NOT DIMINISH UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONCERNED ANOTHER 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THEN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTERING WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MN WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THUS...VERY CONCERNED WE COULD END UP WITH SOME FLOODING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 18 SEEM MOST FAVORABLE GIVEN RAIN LOCATION TODAY...SO LEFT OUT FAYETTE...CLAYTON AND GRANT. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RIVERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF THE RAIN RUNS THROUGH THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY BRING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT LOCATION. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055. FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WIZ032. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MNZ079. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR IAZ008>011-018- 019. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM....AJ AVIATION.....RIECK HYDROLOGY....AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHEYENNE WY
548 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD POOL FROM STORMS THAT FIRED EARLIER OVER NATRONA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES ARE RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS (JUST NORTH OF ALLIANCE) AND WINDS TO NEAR 75 MPH...ALTHOUGH THEY APPEAR A BIT WEAKER AT THIS TIME ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OVER MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. AIRMASS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THESE STORMS IS FAIRLY WORKED OVER NOW AND STABILIZED AS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONGEST STORMS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS THEY APPROACH THE CITY OF SIDNEY. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY 8 PM WITH A FEW WEAKER ISOLATED CELLS POSSIBLE OUT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MID EVENING WHERE WE STILL HAVE A FEW CONVECTIVE TOWERS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH ITS AXIS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH WINDS GOING NORTH TO NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS MOVING OVER MUCH OF CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEAK INSTABILITY IS SHOWN UP IN THIS REGION...LARGELY CAUSED BY COOL MIDLVL TEMPS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE SVR STORMS THROUGH THE AFTN OVER THE CWA...HOWEVER THE BEST SHOT WOULD BE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS IS WHERE THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE CO-LOCATED WITH 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION AND DECREASING INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTN ARE NEGATIVES FOR STRONGER STORMS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH LITTLE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS WILL WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING...NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHERE STORMS LINGERED LATE INTO THE NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MIDLVL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH SFC WINDS TURNING TO THE SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF AT ALL...WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS COME UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE WAVE IS SUCH THAT THE DRYLINE IS LOCATED OVER THE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE VERY HIGH (60-65F) TO THE EAST. INSTABILITY IS EXCELLENT (LI VALUES OF -9C) AS IS DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SVR STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. OF COURSE IF THE WAVE IS SLOWER AND THE SFC TROUGH IS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BACK UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE THEN THE SVR THREAT WOULD EXTEND TO ALMOST THE ENTIRE PLAINS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 GFS SHOWS MAIN SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A MID/UPPER DRYSLOT WORKING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THIS FAR NORTH WITH THE UPPER DRYSLOT AND HENCE WOULD SUGGEST SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA AND OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND... GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT OVERALL MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND FAIRLY ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SEMI- ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WHEN EACH PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE OUR AREA...SO WE KEPT AT LEAST SOME POPS GOING MOST AREAS WITH CHANCE POPS CONCENTRATED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY AS GFS (AND TO SOME DEGREE THE ECMWF) DEPICTS A LARGESCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING TO OUR EAST WITH RIDGING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH ON AMPLIFYING THE EASTERN TROUGH...SO WE MAY END UP RAISING POPS FOR SUNDAY ON SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 STORMS THAT PRODUCED 70 MPH WINDS IN ALLIANCE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AROUND SIDNEY AT THIS TIME. KEPT STRONG STORMS IN SIDNEY AREA THROUGH 01Z THEN DROPPED MENTION OF THUNDER ALL AVIATION FORECAST SITES AFTER 02Z AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABILIZED. VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIODS ALL SITES. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 15 PERCENT BY TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT FORECASTED SINCE FUELS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE GROWTH. .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED AND STAGES SHOULD BEGIN TO RECEDE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOWMELT EACH DAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED AND STAGES SHOULD BEGIN TO RECEDE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOWMELT EACH DAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GARMON SHORT TERM...FINCH LONG TERM...GARMON AVIATION...GARMON FIRE WEATHER...FINCH HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
327 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTN AND EVENING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...MAINLY DUE TO THE MARGINAL FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS IS STILL RATHER MARGINAL TO GET STORMS MORE ORGANIZED INTO SUPERCELLS. A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CHUGWATER AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR AND HAVE NOT REALLY STRENGTHENED AS IT PUSHED OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THE BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40 KTS BY AROUND 00Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO WESTERN WY. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE TROUGH IS GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS OVER PLATTE AND CONVERSE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN THAT MERGE INTO A LINE/MULTICELL CLUSTER OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE SVR WORDING WITH LARGE HAIL IN THE GRIDS SINCE CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE BY THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS WY OVERNIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY SUN AFTN. SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO HAVE MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY 18Z SUN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST. THE DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE COMPARED TO THIS AFTN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MOIST IT WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND THE MORE MOIST NAM IN THE MID 50S. TEND TO THINK THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA IN THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR EASTERN ZONES SINCE WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGER AND BULK SHEAR ARE 40-45 KTS. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING MONDAY. FOR THE MOST PART...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR DRIEST DAY. LATEST NAM/WRF IS SHOWING SOME POPS DOWN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING. DO THINK FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH THAT EVERYONE WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE WITH LOW LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z...GFS SHOWING AN 80 TO 85KT JET TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING...WITH MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FAVORABLE LFQ OF THE JET. SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS CONVERSE...NIOBRARA COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. SINCE IT HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS SETUP FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. SEVERE CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS JET SAGS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH. STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY SIMILAR ON WHERE POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT FRIDAY EVENING. COULD BE OUR NEXT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE AT THAT TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND AFTER 23Z FOR OUR NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. SOME QUESTION ON CAPPING INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LATEST HRRR FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT KSNY AND MAYBE KBFF WILL STAY DRY. DO THINK WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE AND ADDED VCTS TO THESE TAFS AFTER 23Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE 00Z TAFS. SHOULD NOT SEE THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT WE SAW THIS MORNING FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUN MORNING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FINCH LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB AVIATION...CLAYCOMB FIRE WEATHER...FINCH HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1100 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 CHANCE OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD FOR THIS AFTN. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH GOOD SFC HEATING. THE RUC MODEL INDICATES SBCAPES OF 1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTN WITH BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT WEAK LLVL SHEAR. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL OVER THE FAR EAST PARTS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT SHORTLY AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES ON NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME CLEARING NOTED OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL EDGE EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ON BATCH OF ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKYS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF WILL INCREASE UPPER WINDS OVER THE CWA TODAY AND WITH LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGHER TODAY. THE CLEARING THAT HAS OCCURRED WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARMING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY THUS SHOULD SEE MORE INSTABILITY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF WDLY SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON... SPREADING EAST INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO PERSIST LONGER TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE. SUNDAY A LITTLE MORE TRICKY AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH A MODEST FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BIT DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE NUDGED TO THE EAST BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH MONDAY LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND MILD. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING THE FORECAST AREA BEING THE CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY MESSY SO VERY TOUGH TO TIME THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE ALMOST EVERY DAY THERE WILL BE A SHOT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NORM BUT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EAST. CURRENTLY THE MODELS MOSTLY KEEPING THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THINGS...WHICH IF CORRECT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SLOWER SNOWMELT...ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND AFTER 23Z FOR OUR NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. SOME QUESTION ON CAPPING INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LATEST HRRR FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT KSNY AND MAYBE KBFF WILL STAY DRY. DO THINK WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE AND ADDED VCTS TO THESE TAFS AFTER 23Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE 00Z TAFS. SHOULD NOT SEE THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT WE SAW THIS MORNING FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 CONCERNS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NON- CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. TODAY SHOULD SEE THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR WILL ACT TO REDUCE ACTIVITY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014 RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FINCH SHORT TERM...RE LONG TERM...SML AVIATION...CLAYCOMB FIRE WEATHER...RE HYDROLOGY...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
257 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE ISLAND PARK AREA THIS MORNING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A PRETTY NICE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY LATE MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE LOOKING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM AND WRF ARE OVERDOING THINGS...WHILE THE GFS AND HRRR ARE UNDERDOING. THAT IS WHY WE WENT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE AND ISOLATED STORMS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A STRAY STORM IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR OAKLEY AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BY MORNING...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY MOVING CLOSER TO THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE STILL FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OVERALL TOMORROW WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A HAILEY TO MONTPELIER LINE. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT NON- SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SPEED OF TOMORROW`S SYSTEM AND ITS EXIT FROM OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM PUSHES WELL EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS IT ONLY ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. THIS GREATLY AFFECTS THE AMOUNT OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH A SLOWER PATTERN AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GOING BACK TO TOMORROW`S WEATHER...WE ARE LOOKING AT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN. WE MAY APPROACH THE LOW END THRESHOLD FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WE ARE STICKING WITH WINDS A BIT BELOW THAT WHICH DOES MEAN THAT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THOUGH FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY TODAY WITH SEVERAL PLACES HITTING THE LOW/MID 80S. IT WILL COOL DOWN THOUGH TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THAT BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. KEYES .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING STILL WITH HOW FAR SOUTH A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE MAY SEE ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES FARTHER SOUTH...WE COULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE KEEP ANY REAL THREAT IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. BEYOND THAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FARTHER APART. THE ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH A SLOWER MOVING LOW ACROSS OUR AREA AND A DECENT SHOT AT RAIN BY MONDAY. THE GFS IS A LOT QUICKER AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE GOING FORECAST OF ANY DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RUNNING AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW 80S RETURN FROM TIME TO TIME BUT 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MOST VALLEYS WILL BE COMMON...AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES && .AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND KSUN 21Z-03Z TODAY. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AT BOTH KSUN AND KIDA. FOR KBYI AND KPIH...WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RS && .FIRE WEATHER...WE BEGIN THE DAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVANCING INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO THE SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED IN THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL BOOST THE HAINES INDEX TO 6 FOR AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF BIG SOUTHERN BUTTE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE APPROACHING TROUGH HAS TIME TO COOL THE AIR DOWN AND INCREASE THE HUMIDITY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN SAWTOOTH AND SALMON-CHALLIS FOREST AREA. MOISTURE DEEPENS AND THE CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES OVER NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY MOST SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF A PICABO TO GRAYS LAKE LINE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE ARCO DESERT AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. RS && .HYDROLOGY...RIVER MODELS AGAIN KEEPING ALL GAUGES BELOW BANKFULL FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENCY IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SNOTEL DATA INDICATES THE TETONS ARE THE LAST HOLD OUT FOR SNOW DEPTH AND MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. SWIFT FLOWS AND HIGH WATER ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR TRIBUTARIES AND CREEKS LEADING TO THE MAIN RIVERS PARTICULARLY THROUGH TETON BASIN. FLOODING NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. DMH/KEYES && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
403 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... 331 AM CDT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL- ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED STORMS. CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC. ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD. MTF && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * GUSTY S WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL THIS AFTN. * ISOL TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTN. * MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL WITH THE STORMS. JEE //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NW TODAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. FIRST...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND THINKING LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THOSE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER RFD EARLY THIS MORNING. SITES TO OUR NORTH AND SOME TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE REPORTING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...BUT THOSE ARE CLOSELY TIED TO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. LEFT SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS...BUT THINKING RFD HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP. ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE TSRA TEMPO BY AN HOUR AS GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DID NOT GO AS LATE AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...BUT STARTED TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION. FORCING IS ONCE AGAIN MUDDLED SO TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE STORMS DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UPWARDS OF 30 KT TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL SHRA OR TSRA MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. JEE //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MAY SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS IN THE AFTN AND PERHAPS THE EVENING AS WELL. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TODAY. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS. JEE //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY...CHC TSRA LATE OVERNIGHT...VFR. WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY DURING THE DAY AND CHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR PSBL. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. DZ .&& .MARINE... 245 PM CDT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25 KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. KREIN && .MARINE... 401 AM CDT LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH MAX WINDS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE UP TO 30 KT. STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS PLANNED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE TODAY ALONG WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE LOWS COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INITIALLY BE STRONG AT 15 TO 25 KT BUT WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT LOW FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND PUSHES EAST. WINDS TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE WHEN IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BUT THINKING THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SITS OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WINDS TURN NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AS WELL. JEE && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
335 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... 331 AM CDT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL- ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED STORMS. CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC. ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD. MTF && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * GUSTY S WINDS REDEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL THIS AFTN. * MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL. * ISOL TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTN. JEE //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NW TODAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. FIRST...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND THINKING LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THOSE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER RFD EARLY THIS MORNING. SITES TO OUR NORTH AND SOME TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE REPORTING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...BUT THOSE ARE CLOSELY TIED TO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. LEFT SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS...BUT THINKING RFD HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP. ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE TSRA TEMPO BY AN HOUR AS GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DID NOT GO AS LATE AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...BUT STARTED TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION. FORCING IS ONCE AGAIN MUDDLED SO TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE STORMS DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UPWARDS OF 30 KT TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL SHRA OR TSRA MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. JEE //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MAY SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS IN THE AFTN AND PERHAPS THE EVENING AS WELL. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TODAY. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS. JEE //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY...CHC TSRA LATE OVERNIGHT...VFR. WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY DURING THE DAY AND CHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR PSBL. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. DZ .&& .MARINE... 245 PM CDT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25 KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. KREIN && .MARINE... 245 PM CDT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25 KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1255 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... 857 PM CDT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA HAS WANED FOR THE MOMENT BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN CWA FROM NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL THE MAIN THREAT WITH A FEW MESONET SITES TO THE WEST SHOWING GUSTS NEAR 30 KT...BUT EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO GET STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHWESTERN AREAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER COVERAGE AND SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPOTTY ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF A BETTER ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IOWA WHERE MORE ABUNDANT THUNDER COVERAGE EXISTS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY TONIGHT AFTER THE NEXT ROUND COMES THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT COVERAGE MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WAVE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD IN THE NEAR TERM TO BETTER FIT TRENDS...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MDB //PREV DISCUSSION... 252 PM CDT VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS CLOUD COVER...WITH SOME BUILDING OVER NORTHERN IL. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP...AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE LACK OF 0-6KM SHEAR...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT THAT A FEW CORES COULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST TO 50MPH...THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WELL ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT. SO THE SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN NATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN THRU THE AFTN HOURS...THEN EXPECT A STEADY DECLINE IN COVERAGE SHORTLY AFT SUNSET. UPSTREAM OF THE REGION A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN BLOSSOMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN TO THE WEST THROUGH CENTRAL NE. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE OUR FORECAST AREA IN GENERAL CONVECTION...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH EARLIER THINKING. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NEAR 90 DEG IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE MOIST BOUNDARY HAS ALSO PUSHED NORTHEAST INTO THE CWFA...AS DEW POINTS HAVE JUMPED IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 60S. THE EXCEPTION IS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IN...ALTHOUGH DEW PTS ARE BEGINNING TO CLIMB TO NEAR 60 LATE THIS AFTN. AN ISOLATED TSRA REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A PONTIAC TO CHICAGO LINE. THIS IS TIED TO A WEAK WAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW...AND COULD HAVE BROUGHT LOWER POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. HI-RES LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING COULD HOLD ON UNTIL DAYBREAK MON...WHICH COULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. MONDAY... LLVL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY MON...WITH THE WEAK RIDGE PUSHING TO THE EAST. SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR MON IS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISC...WITH THE CWFA SEEING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE SFC. SOME TURNING IN THE WIND FIELDS DEVELOPS MON AFTN...AND WITH DRY AIR ARRIVING ALOFT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY DEVELOP INTO A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. TEMPS MON WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MILD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. WITH THE MOIST CONVEYOR OVERHEAD...DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S...CREATING A HUMID ENVIRONMENT. TUESDAY... SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED FOR ARRIVAL TUE...WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF END TO THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY IN THE MORNING SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH BY MIDDAY THE ENTIRE CWFA SHOULD BE DRY. THE BIGGER CHALLENGE FOR TUE WILL BE ON HOW WARM TEMPS CAN BECOME. SFC WINDS BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATE A SLIGHT NW TURN WITH 850MB TEMPS HOLDING ARND 10-13 DEG C. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY A WEST FLOW AT THE SFC...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80S AND FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 TEMPS SHUD PUSH EVEN WARMER INTO THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID-80S. MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST IN THE EVENING...HOWEVER ENOUGH OF SFC RIDGING SHUD KEEP DRY CONDS THRU THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN THE MID-LVL FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS TO A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP WITH GUIDANCE PUSHING A WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUE NGT. THIS SHUD LIKELY ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE...HIGH. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MID-LVL WAVE WILL ARRIVE WED MORNING...AND SOME TURNING IN THE WIND FIELDS ARE NOTED. SHEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY WED...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WED. PROGGED PWAT VALUES HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST CYCLE...HOWEVER FEEL THAT WITH THE SETUP THAT THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND A RETURN TO NEARLY 1.75-2" VALUES WILL RETURN...FOCUSED STILL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA OR SOUTH OF I-80 WED. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PRECISE PATH. AS THE WAVE NEARS THE REGION WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK WED...CONVECTION COULD ALREADY BE GOING BY DAYBREAK WED...AND SHUD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. THE WILDCARD WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EITHER WAY...SHEAR VECTORS UPSTREAM OF THE CWFA ARE HOVERING BETWEEN 50-60KTS AND RATHER UNIFORM IN DIRECTION POINTED EAST/SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SFC RIDGE PUSHING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED NGT/THUR. THIS WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S FOR THUR AND IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR AREAS OF NORTHEAST IL. THIS SFC RIDGE FEATURE THIS SLOWS AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW. CONFIDENCE...HIGH. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK TO CONTINUE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER...AS THE 500MB FLOW REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH A SEMI-ZONAL LOOK. THIS WILL EXPEDITE SYSTEMS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TO THE EAST. THERE IS A SUBTLE SUGGESTION BY THE ENSEMBLES THAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND A MID-LVL TROUGH BAY TRY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PIVOT EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. SUPPORT FOR SUCH A SCENARIO LOOKS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO BE RATHER SEASONAL...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY BIG WARM-UPS EITHER FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER IF THE FORECASTED PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...AND SOILS CAN FURTHER DRY...ANY PERIOD OF SUNSHINE COULD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM WELL ABOVE CURRENT GUIDANCE. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOES HOWEVER LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * GUSTY S WINDS REDEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL THIS AFTN. * MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL. * ISOL TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTN. JEE //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NW TODAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. FIRST...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND THINKING LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THOSE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER RFD EARLY THIS MORNING. SITES TO OUR NORTH AND SOME TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE REPORTING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...BUT THOSE ARE CLOSELY TIED TO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. LEFT SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS...BUT THINKING RFD HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP. ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE TSRA TEMPO BY AN HOUR AS GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DID NOT GO AS LATE AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...BUT STARTED TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION. FORCING IS ONCE AGAIN MUDDLED SO TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE STORMS DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UPWARDS OF 30 KT TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL SHRA OR TSRA MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. JEE //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MAY SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS IN THE AFTN AND PERHAPS THE EVENING AS WELL. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TODAY. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS. JEE //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY...CHC TSRA LATE OVERNIGHT...VFR. WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY DURING THE DAY AND CHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR PSBL. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. DZ .&& .MARINE... 245 PM CDT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25 KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. KREIN && .MARINE... 245 PM CDT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25 KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 848 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014 Will be updating the forecast soon to make minor adjustments to shower and t-storm wording and to tweak temperatures - especially hourly temps in the gridded forecast. The early evening convection has dissipated in most areas, with the exception of scattered showers in an axis of higher dewpoints/instability primarily west of the Illinois River. Expect the scattered showers and isolated t-storms to come to an end in the next couple of hours. The next round of showers/t-storms will move into the area as the remnants of the MCS in western Iowa/NW Missouri advance eastward. At this time it appears that the best chances for convection will be Monday morning. However, scattered showers and a few t-storms can be expected toward early morning in west central Illinois and around daybreak or shortly thereafter west of I-55. The moderately strong cool pool from the thunderstorms this afternoon has resulted in cooler temperatures than anticipated in eastern Illinois. Thus, will adjust the hourly gridded forecast accordingly, but with dew points in the mid-upper 60s will leave overnight lows alone. && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014 Used a blend of interpolating current regional radar imagery and short range models to time the next round of showers and t-storms in central and eastern IL. The broken line of convection in east central IA is expected to reach the IL river valley around 10z, the I-55 corridor around 11z and east central IL around 13z. Many of the short range models including the HRRR and local WRF indicate that this line will continue to weaken. Thus, will only go with VCTS at the TAF sites for now. The better chance for convection will from mid-morning in the IL River valley to late morning-early afternoon east of I-57. An upper level shortwave trough moving toward the mid MS Valley will provide the lift for the moist and unstable air to produce showers and t-storms. MVFR ceilings and visibility will most likely accompany the showers and t-storms due to abundant low level moisture. Convection may redevelop during the afternoon along any number of low level boundaries and increasing, diurnal instability. However confidence is low as to the location this scattered convection will occur, so will go with VCTS for now. Early evening will see an end to the convection as the best forcing mechanisms move to the east of the region. This will leave us with a VFR ceiling and slightly less wind. Miller && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 247 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014 Models again look very similar with overall pattern in the upper levels and with sfc features, over the next several days. The differences in the models have to do with the timing and location of the qpf tonight through early next week. Main concern with the multiple chances of pcpn through the forecast period and when/where there will be some dry weather in this forecast. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing early this evening, but are diurnal and should dissipate later this evening, leaving a dry forecast with partly cloudy skies. High dewpoint air will be around tomorrow, like today, in advance of a cold front approaching from the northwest. With cwa being in the warm/moisture sector just ahead of the front, pcpn appears likely for tomorrow, across the who area. The front will move close to the area tomorrow night, but not get into the cwa until Tue morning. As pcpn moves through the area tomorrow, pops will become chance category tomorrow night and then become dry for Tuesday. As the cold front begins to lift back north as a warm front, a low pressure area will develop out west and be the focus for a thunderstorm complex Tue night over eastern Neb/western Iowa. This complex of storms will approach the area late Tue evening and then reach into the area after midnight Tue night and remain over the area through Wed morning. So looking at likely pops for late Tue night through Wed morning over the cwa. Models then differ on what things will look like rest of Wed over the area, but will be keeping likely and chc pops for the day. Will be interesting to see what the mode of convection will be late Tue night through Wed morning. Temps will remain in the 80s next two days ahead of the frontal system, and then get cooler for Wed, though still warm in the south/southeast parts of the cwa. LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday Depending on the speed of the system for Wed/Wed night, pcpn will likely linger in the southeast Wed night. So will keep likely pops in the southeast Wed night. The front now looks to push south of the area, but will be keeping chc pops in across the southern half of the area Thur through Friday. The finally a dry period in the forecast for Fri night and Sat before the next system moves into the area with more pcpn, for Sat night and Sun. Temps through the extended period will be on the cooler side as the front slides south of the area and winds will be out of the north to northeast. Auten && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
147 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 PREVIOUS UPDATE SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH THE ADMONISHMENT OF SHOWERS IN THE NE SECTION OF THE CWA. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN KY AS WELL...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MORE UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO BE PANNING OUT VERY WELL. UPDATED THE NEAR TERM WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS WERE REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY PUT OUT A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES EAST OF JACKSON. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA...FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER BEFORE FADING OUT. AS SUCH...WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT TEMPORARILY HIGHER POPS AND THUNDERS CHANCES IN THIS AREA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA. THIS FLOW HAS BROUGHT AMPLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE JKL CWA THE PCPN HAS BEEN MORE FLEETING WITH JUST A FEW PINHEAD SHOWERS NOTED... LARGELY DUE TO A WARM NOTCH AROUND 650 MBS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...SO THE INSTABILITY IS THERE BUT ANY TRIGGERS HAVE BEEN TOO WEAK TO SUSTAIN STORMS HERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON RADAR. THE HRRR SEEMS OUT OF TOUCH WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A POP UP SO HAVE NOT REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM THE GRIDS. A BETTER CHANCE MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING PER MULTIPLE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE NAM12. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED SOME LOW...BUT RELEVANT... POPS IN THIS PART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND VALLEY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THESE GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM. SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF JACKSON. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWN IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT THAT WILL ACT AS A CAP AND KEEP ALL THE BUILDUPS BELOW 12K FEET. AS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN AND THE AREAL EXTEND WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DROP OFF AGAIN NEAR DAWN AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTING THE GFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THE UNREALISTIC DEWPOINTS THE MODEL IS GENERATING. WITH THE DEWPOINTS TO HIGH...IT TAKES MUCH LESS CONVECTION AND LIFT TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL CHOICE HAS BEEN THE NAM AND HRRR FOR THE FORECAST. THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE LOWS A BIT HIGHER AND THE HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATION ADJUSTMENTS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST OF A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FIRST THING TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP WITH THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKELY TO GET ANY MID LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUPPORT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND LIKELY DROP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHES IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT NEAR THE AREA AGAIN...THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST BY SATURDAY WITH GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO SQUEEZE A FEW DRY PERIODS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN INCREASING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. SCT TO BKN CIGS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LAYER OF BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS IN THE 10K LEVEL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR DAWN MONDAY /IF NOT HAMPERED BY THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY TO HAVE AN EFFECT AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN INCREASE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SPAWN SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION...THOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES. WITHOUT KNOWING WHERE THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP...AND HOW FAR EAST TOWARDS THE TAF SITES IT WILL TRAVEL...CHOSE TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
549 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 CONCERNS FOCUS ON AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN THE ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE WRN CWA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS GENERALLY RESULTED IN LITTLE TO NO PCPN OVER UPPER MI FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS. YESTERDAYS RAIN SHOWERS AND THE CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS HOWEVER RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS FOG/STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INLAND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE PORTION OF UPPER MI ALONG LAKE MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. EXPECT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL DIURNAL MIXING HELPS SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVELS BY LATE MORNING. WITH SPOTTER REPORTS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE KEWEENAW HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES THROUGH 11 AM. THE LATEST HRRR RUN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER WI. ONE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SCNTRL WI INTO NE WI LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ALONG THETA-E RDG AXIS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHILE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WRN WI IS TIED TO MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH MN AND NE IA AND LIFT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BAND OVER SCNTRL ERN WI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALLY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SE UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...THE RAIN BAND OVER WRN AND NCNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SUPPORTING IT ROTATES NE FROM MN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG AND PWATS TO NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 35-40 KT MAY ALLOW SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO ERN COUNTIES MAINLY AFT 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TIED WITH THE MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOC SECONDARY COLD FRONT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND NEG SHOWALTER INDICES COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TSRA INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN A TRANSITION TO ANOTHER PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS THIS LOWS CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...A LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OR WESTERN U.P. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE FEATURES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY VALUES IN THE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO SHIFT EAST BUT WILL ALSO BE PULLED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT THE POPS (CHANCES) EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHILE ALSO DIMINISHING THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST...SO WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO A WEST TO EAST DIMINISHING TREND TO THE FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TREND SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS (25 KTS) OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ARE DIFFICULT ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM START TO THE DAY...THEN COOLING WITH THE MORNING RAIN SHOWERS...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN WITH SOME SUN IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH THE KEWEENAW MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S WITH THE STRONG WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT FROM A PARENT HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK SHIFT EAST. IT WAS HINTED AT YESTERDAY AND CONTINUED WITH TODAYS 00Z RUNS THAT A FINAL SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...SO WILL JUST MENTION A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME OVER THE EAST. IN ADDITION...MAY SEEM SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP MOVES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP THINGS COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR (TEMPS IN THE 50S)...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE THE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS AND A LITTLE STRONGER WINDS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOWER 70S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. BEHIND THIS LAST WAVE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE U.P. THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND GENERALLY NORMAL TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S (SOME UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY NIGHT) FOR LOWS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND LEAD TO THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS WAVE COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS NEARING WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL JUST SHOW SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL VARY ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA SHOWN BY THEM AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 LIGHT WINDS AND FOG/STRATUS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR AT KIWD... LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW AND VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCMX. EXPECT THE MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK MONDAY TO PUSH INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO VFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 OTHER THAN SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 30KTS THROUGH THE FCST PD. LIGHTER WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE SO HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN ZONE OF LAKE. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR LSZ162- 240>250-263>266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...07 MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
405 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL HANDLING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF WI...WHERE THEY HAD FEWER CLOUDS /INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY/. MLCAPES AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ARE ABUNDANT IN THIS AREA...AND AS EXPECTED SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF AWAY FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI. GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.5 IN OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 180-220 PERCENT OF NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR 1.6 TO 1.8IN. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT OR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT SLIDE INTO THE CWA. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN WI...AROUND 45MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR AREA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER...EVEN THROUGH INSTABILITY LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FAR E UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 10-15KTS...TEMPS HAVE ROSE NEAR 80F INLAND FROM LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON...AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT /MAINLY AT RACO/. THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z...AND WAS TAKEN OFF THE TOP NEWS EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO NEAR THIS AREA...BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC IS KEEPING MUCH IF ANYTHING FROM ACCUMULATING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...NOT ONLY AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 50S. THE COLD FRONT TO OUR W WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY...LIKELY AROUND SE LAKE SUPERIOR/E UPPER MI. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S OVER THE W HALF...AND LIKELY FAR E UPPER MI ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RESIDE OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z /NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THERE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST/...BEFORE EXPANDING E THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN A TRANSITION TO ANOTHER PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS THIS LOWS CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...A LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OR WESTERN U.P. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE FEATURES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY VALUES IN THE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO SHIFT EAST BUT WILL ALSO BE PULLED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT THE POPS (CHANCES) EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHILE ALSO DIMINISHING THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST...SO WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO A WEST TO EAST DIMINISHING TREND TO THE FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TREND SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS (25 KTS) OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ARE DIFFICULT ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM START TO THE DAY...THEN COOLING WITH THE MORNING RAIN SHOWERS...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN WITH SOME SUN IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH THE KEWEENAW MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S WITH THE STRONG WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT FROM A PARENT HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK SHIFT EAST. IT WAS HINTED AT YESTERDAY AND CONTINUED WITH TODAYS 00Z RUNS THAT A FINAL SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...SO WILL JUST MENTION A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME OVER THE EAST. IN ADDITION...MAY SEEM SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP MOVES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP THINGS COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR (TEMPS IN THE 50S)...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE THE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS AND A LITTLE STRONGER WINDS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOWER 70S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. BEHIND THIS LAST WAVE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE U.P. THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND GENERALLY NORMAL TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S (SOME UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY NIGHT) FOR LOWS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND LEAD TO THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS WAVE COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS NEARING WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL JUST SHOW SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL VARY ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA SHOWN BY THEM AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 LIGHT WINDS AND FOG/STRATUS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR AT KIWD... LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW AND VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCMX. EXPECT THE MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK MONDAY TO PUSH INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO VFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FALL BELOW 3MI VIS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER THE W HALF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE E HALF. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS A LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S JAMES BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-240>250-263>266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...07 MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL HANDLING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF WI...WHERE THEY HAD FEWER CLOUDS /INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY/. MLCAPES AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ARE ABUNDANT IN THIS AREA...AND AS EXPECTED SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF AWAY FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI. GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.5 IN OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 180-220 PERCENT OF NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR 1.6 TO 1.8IN. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT OR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT SLIDE INTO THE CWA. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN WI...AROUND 45MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR AREA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER...EVEN THROUGH INSTABILITY LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FAR E UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 10-15KTS...TEMPS HAVE ROSE NEAR 80F INLAND FROM LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON...AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT /MAINLY AT RACO/. THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z...AND WAS TAKEN OFF THE TOP NEWS EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO NEAR THIS AREA...BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC IS KEEPING MUCH IF ANYTHING FROM ACCUMULATING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...NOT ONLY AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 50S. THE COLD FRONT TO OUR W WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY...LIKELY AROUND SE LAKE SUPERIOR/E UPPER MI. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S OVER THE W HALF...AND LIKELY FAR E UPPER MI ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RESIDE OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z /NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THERE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST/...BEFORE EXPANDING E THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 AFTER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...FCST WILL HINGE UPON HOW FAST THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR HOW FAST IT IS FORCED E BY NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS W AND CNTRL NAMERICA. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WET WEATHER HERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA...THEN DRY WEATHER MID AND LATE WEEK AS APPROACHING MID/UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A TYPICAL SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN AS ICE FILLED HUDSON BAY AND THE CHILLY GREAT LAKES ENHANCE SFC HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT. IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...TEMPS THIS WEEK SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM EARLY JUNE NORMALS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TEMPS SOMEWHAT ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST WEATHER IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. BEGINNING MON NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR PERHAPS FAR WRN UPPER MI AND THEN ON INTO NRN ONTARIO BY TUE MORNING. BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE AS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND MIDLEVEL DRYING ARRIVES. THIS DRYING IS MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN MON AFTN MOVING INTO UPPER MI EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL HELP MAINTAIN DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE W MON NIGHT. ALONG WITH APPROACH OF THE ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROF...SOME SHRA WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE W. AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS E ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SHRA CHANCES WILL SPREAD E TUE MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING MAY FURTHER AID EXPANSION OF SHRA TUE OVER THE E. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER OVER THE E...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH ALMOST NO MLCAPE INDICATED...WILL LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT. BULK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY JUST N OF UPPER MI...SO STEADIER RAIN SHOULD PASS BY TO THE N. HOWEVER...THE KEWEENAW MAY GET BRUSHED BY THE MORE PERSISTENT SHRA TUE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CHILLY/MISERABLE AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND BRISK WNW WINDS OFF COLD LAKE SUPERIOR. FOG THAT WILL BE EXPANDING AND BECOMING MORE DENSE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/MON AND PROBABLY DEVELOPING ON NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKES WHENEVER WINDS ARE ONSHORE. THE FOG WILL CLEAR OFF THE LAKES TUE. LINGERING SHRA SHOULD END FROM SW TO NE TUE AFTN AND TUE NIGHT AS MID/UPPER TROF SLOWLY EDGES E. WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR WED/THU AS MID/UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES... HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT SOME POINT LATER WED/EARLY THU DUE TO ONE LAST SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE ECMWF IS STRONGEST WITH THIS FEATURE...FOLLOWED BY THE GEM. THE GFS IS WEAKEST AND SHOWS NO IMPACT FROM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BACKING OFF ON THIS WAVE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/PARTLY CLOUDY FCST. ALSO...CONCERNS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SHORTWAVES TRACKING E ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS AND BRINGING A SHRA THREAT TO THE FCST AREA ARE BASICALLY GONE NOW AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW DEPARTING TROF/APPROACHING RIDGE SUPPRESSING SHORTWAVES. OTHERWISE...GRADIENT NRLY WIND DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING S FROM NRN MANITOBA/HUDSON BAY/NRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD A CHILLY DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON WED. EXPECT 50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH MANY LAKESIDE LOCATIONS PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WELL IN THE INTERIOR... EXPECT 60S TO LWR 70S. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW SIDE OF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR MASS. THU NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVERHEAD. TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS MIGHT SLIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...FCST FOR FRI THRU THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS W AND CNTRL NAMERICA CAN EITHER PUSH RIDGE EASTWARD OR SUPPRESS IT. USUALLY THERE IS A BIAS TO BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO QUICKLY IN THE LONGER RANGE...SO PLAN TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN REPRESENTED BY THE ECMWF FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER FRI/SAT AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TO HUDSON BAY. TRAILING...DECAYING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE MAY BRING SOME -SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI AS EARLY AS LATE FRI. WILL BE SOMETHING TO LOOK FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...WILL INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR SUN AS IT APPEARS TROF WILL FORCE RIDGE EASTWARD. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER FRI/SAT...BUT OVERALL...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 LIGHT WINDS AND FOG/STRATUS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR AT KIWD... LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW AND VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCMX. EXPECT THE MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK MONDAY TO PUSH INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO VFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FALL BELOW 3MI VIS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER THE W HALF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE E HALF. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS A LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S JAMES BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-240>250-263>266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...07 MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 DENSE FOG IS MAKING A STRONG PUSH INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS OBSERVED ON AREA WEB CAMS. THIS VERIFIES WELL WITH THE LATEST HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING A PUSH OF FOG INLAND TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING MESO-LOW TO THE SW IS PRODUCING RAPID PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST AND ALLOWING THE WINDS ACROSS WRN LS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE N/NE AND DRAWING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE IN ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE ZONES AND ALSO THE LAND ZONES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND AROUND THE TWIN PORTS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV TRACK NEWD INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER S/W LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 500MB S/W WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ALLOW THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ATMOSPHERE TO BE TAPPED...AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MDT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HVY RAIN IN ISO/SCT T-STORMS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ST. LOUIS RIVER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. A SIGNIFICANT DUMP OF RAIN WAS SEEN THIS EVENING AROUND HIBBING...WITH OVER 2 INCHES IN VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WATER...COMBINED WITH THE RAIN THAT FALLS TONIGHT IN THE ST. LOUIS BASIN WILL DRAIN QUICKLY IN THE SATURATED SOILS AND CAUSE THE RIVER LEVEL TO RISE RAPIDLY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE SOGGY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST SAW LIGHT RAIN OR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE TODAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE IRON RANGE/MN ARROWHEAD. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND TRACKS OVER NORTHERN MN THROUGH MONDAY. THE PERIOD FOR BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCT THUNDER IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES INTO NW WISCONSIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE THE DRY SLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY LIMIT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE LOW AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THERE IS A CORRIDOR OF LARGE MID LEVEL OMEGA ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE LOW THAT LIFTS OVER NE MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER GOING OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY SHIFT EAST THE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A BAND OF RAIN...CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WHICH CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY TO SEE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH SOME SUNSHINE APPEARING FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S AS WESTERLIES BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WELL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO PUSH A BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME MODELS ARE PUSHING A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BY THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AND HAVE ONLY SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR NOW. HAVE HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW 70S BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS STILL IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH MODEST STRENGTHENING AND AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER S/W MOVES IN FROM THE SW. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. EAST WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP VSBYS AND CIGS LOW AROUND DLH THROUGH MONDAY MID MORNING. IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MON MORNING ELSEWHERE WITH A GRADUAL LIFT TO MVFR/VFR IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. RAIN COULD LINGER ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS. LGT VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SWLY ON MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY W/NWLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND GUSTY...UP TO 20 KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 50 72 50 69 / 60 30 10 10 INL 51 73 45 74 / 70 20 10 10 BRD 55 76 53 74 / 50 10 10 10 HYR 56 72 48 73 / 50 30 10 10 ASX 50 70 46 66 / 60 40 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ012-019>021-025-026- 033>038. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021- 037. WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001. LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121- 140>148. && $$ UPDATE...BJT SHORT TERM...GRANING LONG TERM...LE AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1212 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 STILL STUCK IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN TO START THIS PERIOD...THOUGH WE WILL FINALLY START TURNING THE CORNER IN TERMS OF ROOTING THIS MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OUT OF HERE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...THERE ARE TWO KEY FEATURES THAT WILL IMPACT THE MPX CWA...THE FIRST IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER SE SODAK THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MPX AREA AS IT WORK NE THIS EVENING. THE SECOND FEATURE IS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BACK BY THE BLACK HILLS THAT WILL BRING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LIGHTER AND LIKELY MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF SW MN INTO THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. OUT THE GATE...WE HAVE SEE AN E-W ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NRN IA WITHIN A ZONE OF CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT IS GETTING FORCED UP AND OVER AN OUTFLOW INDUCED BOUNDARY. BIG QUESTION FOR THE MPX AREA IS HOW WILL THIS IMPACT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY FROM ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THIS WILL KEEP THE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE TRAINING IS MORE LIKELY...BUT MESOANALYSIS HAS SHOWN THAT MLCAPES ACROSS WRN MN HAVE RECOVERED TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OUT IN WRN MN WHERE THE SUN HAS BRIEFLY MADE AN APPEARANCE. AS THIS CLEARING WORKS EAST...DO EXPECT THE CAPE RECOVERY TO WORK EAST WITH IT AS WELL...SO LINE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE NEAR SIOUX FALLS WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO SRN MN. FOLLOWED THE HRRR TO WORK THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...AS IT HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON IT ALL AFTERNOON AND IT MATCHES UP WELL WITH HOW THE HRRR BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO MN AHEAD OF THE SODAK SHORT WAVE. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE ABOUT TODAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE IS WE ACTUALLY HAVE SHEAR TODAY...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MAINLY WIND THREAT WITH THIS LINE AS IT WORKS ENE. THERE IS GOOD NEWS THOUGH ABOUT THE ADDITION OF SHEAR TODAY...AND THAT IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AS WE HEAD FARTHER OUT IN TIME...SO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...NSSL Q3 RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A LARGE SWATH OF OUR AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH PARTS WESTERN STEARNS COUNTY UP CLOSER TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTED THIS NEXT BATCH OF STORMS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE...RECENT WET CONDITIONS HAVE OUR FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS AT INCREDIBLY LOW LEVELS AT THE MOMENT...WITH CURRENT 1 HR AND 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DOWN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. THIS SECONDARY WAVE BACK IN NODAK IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITH IT...BUT EXPECT IT TO INCREASE PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE NW CWA LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GOING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...THIS WILL WILL TRAVEL MORE OR LESS DOWN I-94...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDS. FORTUNATELY...ANY ACTIVITY WE SEE MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHTER /AS PWATS BEGIN TO RECEDE FROM THERE CURRENT LEVELS AROUND 1.75 INCHES...WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. SO FOR THAT REASON...CONTINUED TO LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE THROUGH 18Z. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 BY MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT... AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME NEED TO KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS THE NORTH INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES LINGERING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. AFTER THAT... WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... AT THAT POINT WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEP BACK NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA... CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY... FRONTOGENESIS... AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HOWEVER... CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PCPN FARTHER NORTH GIVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE 700-500MB LAYER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED NORTH AND SATURATE THINGS NEAR 700MB. SO... ALLOWED FOR CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SCOOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. NEXT SYSTEM AFTER THAT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY AS FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE ZONAL. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THEN HEADS MORE EASTERLY BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST AGAIN. MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF ANY LEAD SHORT WAVES AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT LOOKS LIKE MN/WI WILL BE BACK IN UPPER SW FLOW LATE THIS WEEK...MERITING CHANCE POPS. WITH UPPER LOW NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE BORDER... THIS WILL NOT BE AN EXCEEDINGLY WARM PERIOD...AND IN FACT...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. ONCE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT EVEN REACH 70 NEXT WEEKEND OVER CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WISC. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AND IMPACT MANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 09 TO 10Z. BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHSIDE OF THE LOW AND CIGS WILL LIFT. DEEP MIXING WILL LIFT CIGS FURTHER AS WINDS GUST TO 30 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL MN...BUT CHANCES HAVE DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. KMSP...MVFR CIGS HAVE ARRIVED...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS THAT SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS FILL IN OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH RESPECT TO HOW LOW CIGS GO...SEVERAL UPSTREAM OBS ARE IFR OE LOWER. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVERNIGHT. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15 KTS. WED...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA. WIND E 10-15 KTS. THU...VFR. WIND E-SE 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>043-048- 049-055>057. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...TDK/TRH AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 Overall pattern has changed to a more progressive and unsettled regime through the upcoming week. While there will no doubt be periods when there will be no precipitation the proximity of a couple frontal boundaries and the vagaries of the models further out in time will make it difficult to go dry in most periods. Short term concerns will focus on the evolution of upstream convection over NE and KS and any severe threat over northwest MO. A number of Hi Res models such as the HRRR and local WRF as well as the latest NAM and GFS track the current developing NE MCS eastward. At the same time activity blossoms southward towards central KS where a strengthening southerly low-level jet feeds moderately unstable air under an increasingly diffluent flow aloft. Too many models favor this evolution to ignore. These models propagate the KS convection southeast this evening which is supported by the Corfidi vectors. As the the low level jet veers overnight it will maintain the KS MCS as it moves into southwest MO. The convection in between these two core MCSs will likely weaken as it moves into the western CWA late this evening. The severe threat will be confined to northwest MO this evening with an isolated severe wind gust possible. By sunrise the main portion of the convection is expected to be near or have exited the eastern and southern counties. However, can`t rule out scattered convection bubbling back up during the morning and afternoon hours as the southwesterly low-level jet will enhance convergence along any residual outflow boundaries as well as a weak cold front entering the CWA. Temperatures will be problematic due to any convection as well as residual cloud cover. Monday night into Tuesday could see scattered convection pop-up wherever the weak cold front stalls, which favors the southern counties. Shortwave riding aloft spreads eastward across the Central Plains on Tuesday allowing an elevated warm mixed layer to spread east while the front retreats northeast as a warm front. As has been noted for the last couple of days the combination of moderate to strong shear coupled with strong instability and the added low-level shear along/north of the warm front signal the increasing likelihood of severe storms along and north of the warm front. Models have been trending lifting the warm front further north over the past couple of runs, pushing the convection and severe threat from northern MO into IA. Wednesday could see a trailing cold front settle south through the CWA, but not before temperatures could reach 90 over the southern half of the forecast area. This boundary will become the focus for any additional rain chances. The GFS and ECMWF have settle this front to near the MO/AR border by Thursday before it stalls. Confidence has improved on this occurring and have started to lower PoPs across at least northern MO for Thursday and Friday. Convective chances increase as we head into next weekend as another moderately strong upper trough sweeps through the Rockies and forces the front north as a warm front, allowing rain chances to increase over the CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1228 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 The main line of thunderstorms has moved through the terminals however the terminals will be affected by stratiform rain with an ocnl lightning strike thru 07Z-08Z with vsbys being reduced to 5SM. GFS MOS, GFS LAMP and to a lesser extend NAM MOS guidance cont to indicate a period of MVFR cigs from 11Zthru most of the morning hours. However, there is some concern that MVFR may not materialize as not has developed upstream behind the stratiform rain and NAM BUFR soundings has pulled back on MVFR cigs for this morning. Otherwise, cigs should scatter out around 3kft by 16Z with a bkn mid lvl deck. Winds will be out of the south around 10kts overnight while veering to the southwest around 10kts by daybreak. By the afternoon, the frontal boundary will move into the VC of the terminals and wind will shift to the south btn 5-10kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJ AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE REMAINING KANSAS COUNTIES FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND UPDATED THE FORECAST. CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE APPROACHING LINE OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...AS THEY APPEAR TO HAVE THE MOMENTUM GOING TO REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN BOUNDARIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING PRETTY WELL HANDLING THIS LINE OF STORMS THUS FAR... EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING THIS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND 4-6Z...AND STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THIS MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 STORM EVOLUTION BEHAVED PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT CONCENTRATING OVER KS ZONES AND LESS-SO NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. HAVE ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO BE CANCELLED EARLY FOR ALL 24 NEB COUNTIES...BUT WILL HANG ONTO 6 KS ZONES AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT LONGER WITH ACTIVE STRONG STORMS IN THAT AREA...AND SEVERE STORMS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE. MAIN CHANGE IN FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS EVENING FROM EARLIER THINKING IS THAT IT NOW APPEARS THAT NEW ROUND OF NORTHWEST NEB CONVECTION MAY HAVE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF REACHING AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA BEFORE WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE...DECIDED IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO PUT IN A FEW HOURS OF SLIGHT POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF AN ORD-ORLEANS LINE IN THE WESTERN CWA FROM 9PM-MIDNIGHT. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL OBVIOUSLY BEAR CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MAKE SURE IT DOESN/T PUSH INTO THE CWA ANY FARTHER OR WITH MORE INTENSITY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES AREA...SHOULD IN THEORY BE MOST FAVORED TO BE DONE WITH CONVECTION FOR THE NIGHT PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF WESTERN NEB STORMS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 AS WAS QUITE WELL-ANTICIPATED...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE AT TIMES...HAVE BEEN ONGOING WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY BUT SURELY EXPANDING MORE-SO INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE-CRITERIA REPORTS HAVE BEEN RATHER FEW SO FAR...IN PART OWING TO A "MESS" OF STORM SCALE MERGERS/INTERACTIONS DISRUPTING INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM MAINTAINING OR REACHING PEAK POTENTIAL INTENSITY...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL NONETHELESS PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE TIME BEING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL 30 COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM...BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA IS ALREADY BEHIND THE MAIN...BACK EDGE OF STORMS AND THE NORTHERN CWA APPEARS TO BE VERY WORKED OVER BY COOLER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...SO WILL PROBABLY START TRIMMING AWAY SOME OF THESE COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. RAINFALL-WISE...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES BEYOND THE LIKELY BRIEF URBAN/STREET FLOODING TAKING PLACE IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS...AND RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE OVERESTIMATING REALITY BY AROUND ONE-THIRD BASED ON LIMITED GROUND TRUTH. NONETHELESS...A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA HAS ALREADY SEEN OR WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF 1-2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ROUGHLY I-80 AND THE KS STATE LINE. TURNING TO THE METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION AS OF 20Z/3PM...THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS IS THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOCAL AREA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ELEVATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT AT THE 700MB LEVEL HAS BEEN FEEDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF NEB/NORTHWEST KS ALL DAY...WHICH LED TO AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY-EARLIER ONSET OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT ALSO LIKELY HELPED TO KEEP MUCH OF AT LEAST THE NORTHERN CWA FROM REALIZING A MORE EXTENSIVE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AT THE SURFACE...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT AN EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD POOL FROM THE WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS STILL IN QUESTION...ITS STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE MUCH OF THE NEB CWA IS SEEING A SLOWLY-WANING SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE NOTABLE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL ORGANIZED WIND THREAT MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ALONG THE APPARENT SQUALL LINE THAT APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...WHERE MUCH OF OUR KS ZONES ARE CURRENTLY REALIZING 1000-2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF GENERALLY 30-45KT OF 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE PART OF THE CWA STILL FAVORED FOR A POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO THREAT...WHETHER IT BE WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE CELLS THAT CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES FOR AWHILE...OR WITH POSSIBLE NOTCHES/BRIEF SPIN UPS ALONG THE BACK-END TRAILING SQUALL LINE. JUST CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THIS THREAT GIVEN AROUND 20KT OF LOW-LEVEL 0-1KM SHEAR IN THE AREA. AS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS EVENING...SEE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE WITH THE SOLUTION PRESENTED BY THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS...NAMELY THE 19Z HRRR. AS A RESULT...A GENERALLY AT-MOST MARGINALLY SEVERE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS AND DEPART THE NORTHERN CWA...WHILE A HIGHER SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EITHER FROM A CONTINUATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION...OR OTHER AT LEAST SEMI- DISCRETE STORMS THAT MIGHT MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM JUST WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THAT ANY CONVECTION JUST NOW MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NEB DOES NOT SURVIVE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR AREA...AREAS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LINES/CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE DONE WITH ALL CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...EVEN MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD SEE THE MAIN COVERAGE OF STORMS DEPART TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST GENERALLY DURING THE 8PM-10PM TIME FRAME. JUST IN CASE SOME STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE NORTHWARD INTERFACE OF THE LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BASED NEAR 850MB...LINGERED SOME SMALLER POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES ALL THE WAY THROUGH 09Z...BUT THIS MIGHT BE PLENTY GENEROUS. OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING PREVAILING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ONCE THE WIND FIELD RECOVERS FROM CONVECTIVE-EFFECTS. NUDGED DOWN LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY...TONIGHT...RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S FAR SOUTHEAST. BRIEFLY TURNING TO THE MONDAY DAYTIME HOURS...THIS IS STILL ONE OF THE ONLY FORECAST PERIODS TO STILL FEATURE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK...AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREAD THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THE NEXT ONE THAT TAKES AIM ON THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT COULD STILL BE A CLOSE CALL AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE FOCUSED AT LEAST 1-2 COUNTIES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA MORE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY 10-15 MPH NORTHWEST BREEZES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ASSUMING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS...AIMING FROM LOW-MID 80S NEB ZONES AND MID-UPPER 80S KS ZONES. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 ALOFT: HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING HIGHS CONT TO DOMINATE THE HEMISPHERE OVER THE BERING SEA AND FAR ERN CANADA. THE STAGNANT LONGWAVE PATTERN BETWEEN OVER THE USA IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES THAT HAVE PUT US BACK INTO THE PATH OF MORE ACTIVE WX. SPECIFICALLY...THE NEWLY DEVELOPED RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WRN/CNTRL USA. THE PAST THREE CYCLES OF EC/GFS/GEM/UKMET ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THRU TUE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A LOW- AMPLITUDE TROF. THE NEXT RIDGE ARRIVES WED FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW- AMPLITUDE TROF WED NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER AK WILL BE FORCED SE AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY MID-WEEK AND THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WILL SLOW IT DOWN WITH HEIGHTS FALLING HERE. THAT MEANS A COOL DOWN AND PROBABLY THE COOLEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE MID MAY. SURFACE: THE TAIL END OF THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVES THRU TODAY WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL BE NEAR THE KS-NEB BORDER BY DAWN TUE. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER CO...WITH A DRYLINE INTENSIFYING AND MIXING INTO WRN KS...CREATING A TRIPLE POINT WITH THE FRONT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK E ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER WED NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO THE REGION WED...WITH THE FRONT SAGGING TO THE KS-OK BORDER. BY THU AN OCCLUDING LOW WILL BE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A WARM FRONT FCST TO LIFT THRU THE FCST AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ITS COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THERE IS THEN SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. HAZARDS: WE ARE LOOKING A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX TUE AND TUE NIGHT. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU-SAT. DID NOT LOOK AT POTENTIAL INTENSITY DUE TO ON-GOING EVENT AND TUE POTENTIAL. THE DAILY DETAILS... TUE: PLEASE CONT TO FOLLOW SPC SEVERE WX OUTLOOKS AND THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK /HWO/ AND THIS PRODUCT FOR WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE A SERIOUS SEVERE WX THREAT. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO BE UPGRADED IN LATER SPC OUTLOOKS. LLJ-INDUCED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED COULD INITIATE STORMS DURING THE MORNING HRS N OF THE WARM FRONT. IT APPEARS STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THRU THE DAY AS LLJ INTENSIFIES...PROBABLY FORMING AN MCS. THESE STORMS WILL BE FORMING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EML. THE STORMS WILL REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT AND BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE TSTMS SHOULD ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE...WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT. WHILE SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MCS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE THREATS WITH THESE AFTERNOON STORMS. USE OUR HIGH TEMPS OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH CAUTION. THEY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS/RAIN. WE CURRENTLY HAVE 77-84F ALONG AND N OF I-80...BUT MUCH OF THIS AREA COULD END UP JAMMED IN THE LOW-MID 70S. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...HIGHS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. STOCKTON AND PLAINVILLE WILL BE CLOSE TO 100F. WINDY S OF THE WARM FRONT! 09Z SREF CONTS TO LOOK THREATENING WITH MLCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. FALLING PRES TO THE W WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS BACKED WITH SIGNIFICANT CURVATURE IN FCST HODOGRAPHS. TUE NIGHT: ON-GOING TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE AND GROW INTO AN MCS THAT PROPAGATES E WITH THE SFC LOW. SO TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END HERE. WED: BREEZY IN COOL AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOP OVER S-CNTRL NEB...MOST VIGOROUS N OF I-80. CANT RULE OUT A SHWR OR A COUPLE SPRINKLES N OF HWY 92. THU: COULD SEE A COULD SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CAP. FRI: SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SAT: TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL. SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL CONTS. SUN: PROBABLY DRY UNDER HIGH PRES. CONTINUED COMFORTABLY COOL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF HAZE OR FOG TOWARDS DAWN DUE TO THE CALM WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER RAIN. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ROSSI SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH LONG TERM...HALBLAUB AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FAIRLY SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE AND AMPLE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE/LIFT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN A FEW DAYS...SO A BLEND WILL BE UTILIZED. FOR TODAY...PWATS REMAIN OVER 1 INCH FOR THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE EAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...WITH MID LEVEL FGEN/Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP OMEGA THROUGH 250 MB. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION MODERATE RAIN BAND WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 TODAY. RAIN TOTALS COULD ADD UP TO AROUND 1 INCH...PERHAPS A BIT MORE LOCALLY IN SPOTS WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE VALLEY. TEMPS WILL NOT WARM MUCH AT ALL FOR THE NORTH...AND BE WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...THAT SHOULD ENHANCE OVERALL LARGER SCALE ASCENT. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL CHANCE FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ALL AREAS. IT MAY BECOME MORE RAIN LATER TODAY IN THE NORTH WHEN ALL INSTABILITY WILL BE GONE...BUT STRONG LIFT COULD MEAN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEARLY ANYWHERE TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE EAST BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA BY 12Z TUE. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 FOR WED...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS APPROACHING THE FAR W/NW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND SHOULD APPROACH 80 IN MOST AREAS. ON WED NIGHT...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SHOWALTERS FALLING BELOW ZERO...PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. A FLATTENED LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. FEW SHORT WAVES FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN. ECWMF WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF HAVE TRENDED FASTER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL TRIM BACK POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS NORTHWEST ON FRI. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE ON THU AND GENERALLY ONE TO THREE DEGREES LOWER ON FRI SAT AND SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE TREND WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES AND LOWERING CIGS. USED THE RAP GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF THESE CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE MONDAY EVENING. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1244 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR BURKE AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 06 UTC AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALSO UPDATED POPS TO BETTER FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS THROUGH THE EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADOES ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANY TORNADOES THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. A VERTICALLY STACKED COLD CORE LOW...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 1000 J/KG CAPE ARE SUPPORTING VIGOROUS LOW TOP SUPERCELLS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AND BECOMES ELEVATED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS THE THE 19-22 UTC RAP/HRRR FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH SLOW MOVING...REGENERATIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOURIS BASIN INTO THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...HAVE HAD MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...GIVEN PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND 0-3 KM CAPE OF 100-125 J/KG. THE FUNNEL CLOUD/NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PORTIONS OF WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES RECEIVED 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS AND THROUGH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...LAW ENFORCEMENT...AND PUBLIC REPORTS...THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IN BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...AND WARD COUNTIES WERE ONGOING SINCE SUNRISE TODAY. REPORTS AND RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES SINCE SUNRISE. CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT/WY TO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH DAKOTA WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE IMPULSES. IN ADDITION...A SLOW-MOVING IMPULSE REMAINED OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA - ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUING SHOWERS MENTIONED ABOVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR GARRISON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARDS HARVEY...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR JAMESTOWN. THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ALSO DEPICT HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE FROM MINOT/BOTTINEAU TO JAMESTOWN...ROUGHLY ALONG OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE AN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH (IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THAT EXPIRES JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT) TO INCLUDE THIS AREA FROM MINOT/BOTTINEAU TO JAMESTOWN. EXPANDED THIS PORTION SO THAT IT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS KEEP A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT IN THIS AREA ALL NIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...AND ARRIVE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE SCATTERED/ISOLATED IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LINGERING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON...WANING BY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF HAIL OR HIGH WINDS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF FLOODING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE SHORTWAVE THEN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SHORT WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON WEDNESDAY. 12 UTC MODELS ALSO SHOW THE BROAD TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES THURSDAY AND PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDING UP THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY MODELS AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN BRINGING A SURFACE LOW INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN PUSHING THE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 12 UTC GEM-NHEM AND ECMWF START CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 12 UTC GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OF WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...HOWEVER THE LATEST 12 UTC ECMWF SPED THE SYSTEM UP. IF THE ECMWF AND GEM NHEM SOLUTION IS HOW THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS THERE WILL LITTLE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE GREATEST ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE AROUND 3000 J/KG IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND JUST WEST ACCORDING TO THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEER. WITH THAT SAID WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED AT KJMS...KISN AND KMOT. MVFR STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KBIS AND KDIK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST...KDIK TO NORTHEAST...KMOT AFTER 22 UTC MONDAY AS CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-004-011-012- 021>023-036-037. && $$ UPDATE...MM SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE MCS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA HAS COMPLETELY ROBBED THE NORTHERN SYSTEM OF MOISTURE. RADAR IMAGERY OF THE RETURNS THAT WHERE MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...THE WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE. THUS...WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE IN THE AREA LIKELY STALLING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DID INCREASE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS HERE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE LIMITED FORCING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IS LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND SHOULD WEAKEN OR DECREASE IN COVERAGE. FORCING AGAIN STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY...ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA (AND NO CHANGES TO POPS/WX WILL BE MADE AFTER 12Z MON). && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 CHALLENGES INCLUDE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL. GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLING TO LATCH ONTO ONE SOLUTION UNDER COMPLEX SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SET-UP...BUT LATEST RAP/HRRR/LOCAL WRF STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIMILARITIES AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SOLAR. SFC LOW CENTER STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST NE/ SOUTHEAST SD WITHIN BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WRAP AROUND SFC LOW IMPACTING PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST HEAVIEST RAIN MAY JUST CLIP THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH MUCH OF MN LAKES COUNTRY RECENTLY RECEIVING 2 TO 6 INCHES...WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO CANCEL IF CONVECTION TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO SET-UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MINOT TO BISMARCK AND DEVILS LAKE TO JAMESTOWN CORRIDOR. STRONG RISING MOTION THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DUE TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLET AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW-MOVING BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO DO NOT THINK AN EXTENSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY. LATE TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL AND WET AS SHOWERS SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S WITH THE LAST OF THE RAIN EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 SOME FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS PACIFIC STORMS MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES GIVING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF ARE PRETTY CLOSE BUT JUST OFF ENOUGH SO THAT WE HAVE CHANCE OF PRECIP EVER DAY THU-SAT. AT THIS POINT HARD TO PICK OUT A MODEL OF CHOICE SO WILL UTILIZE THE BLEND TOOL. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE TREND WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES AND LOWERING CIGS. USED THE RAP GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF THESE CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE MONDAY EVENING. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SE INTO PORTIONS OF NW OK OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY IMPACTING BVO/TUL/RVS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. CEILINGS WILL RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THE MAIN LINE WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. A LIMITED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY MCS DECAYS THIS MORNING AND ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES REMAINING THIS AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/ DISCUSSION... LIGHTNING ACTION AND COLD TOPS FROM SATELLITE IN KANSAS CONVECTIVE LINE SHIFTING TO SOUTH- WEST PORTION OF THE LINE. HOW MUCH OF MCS AND HOW FAR PRECIP PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT STILL IN QUESTION. HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT HRRR AND LOOKING UPSTREAM FEEL CONFIDENT RAISING POP FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF I44. SEVERE THREAT ABOUT SPENT BEFORE REACHING TSA CWA OVERNIGHT. GW PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A MCS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE BVO/TUL/RVS AREAS WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/ DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS ADVANCING ACROSS KS AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE AND THEN SLIDE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN OK. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAVE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT IDEAS AS TO HOW THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE UKMET KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE BORDER. BASED ON SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THE DATA...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS INSTEAD OF LIKELY POPS. NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY OWING TO THE TIME OF DAY. MID LEVEL TEMPS AND HEIGHTS RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS SPREADS UP INTO OUR AREA. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED WITH MCS ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. LACY && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
337 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTHEAST WITH HEATING. BAND OF MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR SWINGING THROUGH THIS AREA AROUND RECEDING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST SEEMS TO WEAK GIVEN THE FLOW AND DRIER AIR TO PRODUCE SPOTTY SHOWERS. AS FOR THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY...THEY SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO MARGINALLY WINDY CATEGORY...BUT WILL GET NOWHERE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...THAT IS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S...BUT THE CONTINUED MODEST DRYING WILL MAKE IT FEEL PLEASANT OUTDOORS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AREA WIDE. LATE TONIGHT MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAR SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASE TO MENTION SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 12Z/7 AM TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY MORE HEAVY RAIN. A STRONG 100 KNOT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND ALMOST HINTS AT A BIT OF COUPLING WITH AN INCOMING 80 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET INTO NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN BOTTLED UP JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...ESPECIALLY THE TORNADO THREAT...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL SEE A THREAT OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND MAYBE A LITTLE WIND AND IF THE MODELS ARE TOO FAR SOUTH BY 50 MILES OR SO WITH THE BOUNDARY THAT WOULD PLACE THE AREA IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT...SO DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWAT VALUES LIKELY 1.50 INCHES OR MORE. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH POPS AND INCREASE THEM A BIT FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS IT SEEMS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO MISS OUT ON THE RAINFALL. ON TUESDAY MORNING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND MAX MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN CWA. THIS COULD ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND BRING A SMALL DECREASE IN HEATING WHICH WOULD AFFECT LOW LEVEL WARMING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FORCING MAY BE SO STRONG AND SO WELL IN LINE WITH THE INCOMING STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT THE 800MB TO 700MB LAYER COULD BE VERY ACTIVE WITHOUT MUCH OF A THREAT OF THE SURFACE TO 925MB POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH DIVERTING FLOW AND ROBBING US OF GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND FORCING. THE NAM ELEVATED RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LOOK TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AS WELL SO IF SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE 925MB TO 850MB LAYER CAN DEVELOP IT MAY END UP TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. BY WEDNESDAY EVEN IN A WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE...ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS POTENT...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH ON THIS RIGHT NOW. A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE BOTH DAYS WITH MAINLY 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME 80S NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. IN THE OUTER PERIODS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAYBE SLOWING DOWN A BIT TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST THE LATTER PART. WITH FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE VERY HARD TO COME BY. SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOT OF MID LEVEL POPS THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH POPS DECREASING SOME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 CURRENTLY SEEING SOME MVFR TO IFR STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THIS STRATUS SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG FORM TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW...AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS OR FOG...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TOMORROW OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST...GUSTING 20 TO 30 KTS. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1120 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 FFG NUMBERS FOR CALUMET FOR 3 HOURS ABOUT 1.65 INCHES OF RAIN. WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY...MAY INSTEAD NEED TO GO WITH AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING OR POSSIBLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES. WATCHING THE RAINFALL RATES NEXT SCAN OR TWO. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREAS AND ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ML CAPES OVER 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER CELLULAR IN NATURE BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SLOW CONGEALING TREND FROM NORTHERN IOWA TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN POSSIBLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THOUGH HAVE A HAD A FEW WIND REPORTS TO 45 MPH...THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE FLASH FLOODING IN THE CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN CORRIDOR. THE DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS IS NOT QUITE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW...SO CONCERNS THAT THE OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME. WILL PASS ALONG THE CONCERNS TO THE EVENING SHIFT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TONIGHT...RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBTLE FEATURES TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TRAILING END OF ONE VORT MAX WILL BE DEPARTING FAR NE WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE ANOTHER TAIL OF A VORT WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROBBING THE MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD...AND FOCUSING THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS HERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BUT ONCE THESE FEATURES EXIT...THINK WILL SEE A GENERAL DIMINISHING PRECIP TREND AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT IS LOST. AFTER PLENTY OF RAINFALL IN SPOTS TODAY AND A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...SUPPORT IS THERE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATER TONIGHT. WILL FOCUS THE STRONGER FOG WORDING OVER CENTRAL AND N-C WISCONSIN WHERE MOS GUIDANCE HITS THE LOWER VSBYS HARDER. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...FORCING ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED CAPES REACHING 600 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS AROUND 20 KTS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LLJ LATE TONIGHT AND A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HIGHER IF THIS DEVELOPS. BUT CURRENTLY THINKING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN THAN A SEVERE THREAT. MUGGY NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE 60S. MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NE TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT DRAGS A COOL FRONT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SINCE WINDS ARE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FORCING ALOFT IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION LOOKS MORE ROBUST AND THINK WILL DRIVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH FORCING ALOFT INCREASING DURING THE MORNING...THINK WILL SEE AN AREA OF STORMS MOVE FROM SW TO NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ML CAPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 700-1000 J/KG RANGE WHILE BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS OVER NE WISCONSIN. IF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DO NOT HOLD TEMPS BACK...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER NE WISCONSIN. RATHER SKINNY CAPE SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND TO GO ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 WILL BE BRIEF...AS NEAR-SEVERE TSTMS HAVE KEPT US BUSY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL STILL HAVE LINGERING POPS MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND ON TUESDAY FOR SOME LIGHT WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED SOME SMALL POPS OVER C/EC WI ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HUDSON BAY IS EXPECTED SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STORMS. VFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN TO IFR CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT TO MONDAY. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE.........TDH SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1108 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD POOL FROM STORMS THAT FIRED EARLIER OVER NATRONA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES ARE RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS (JUST NORTH OF ALLIANCE) AND WINDS TO NEAR 75 MPH...ALTHOUGH THEY APPEAR A BIT WEAKER AT THIS TIME ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OVER MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. AIRMASS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THESE STORMS IS FAIRLY WORKED OVER NOW AND STABILIZED AS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONGEST STORMS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS THEY APPROACH THE CITY OF SIDNEY. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY 8 PM WITH A FEW WEAKER ISOLATED CELLS POSSIBLE OUT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MID EVENING WHERE WE STILL HAVE A FEW CONVECTIVE TOWERS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH ITS AXIS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH WINDS GOING NORTH TO NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS MOVING OVER MUCH OF CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEAK INSTABILITY IS SHOWN UP IN THIS REGION...LARGELY CAUSED BY COOL MIDLVL TEMPS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE SVR STORMS THROUGH THE AFTN OVER THE CWA...HOWEVER THE BEST SHOT WOULD BE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS IS WHERE THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE CO-LOCATED WITH 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION AND DECREASING INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTN ARE NEGATIVES FOR STRONGER STORMS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH LITTLE IF ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS WILL WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING...NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHERE STORMS LINGERED LATE INTO THE NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MIDLVL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH SFC WINDS TURNING TO THE SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF AT ALL...WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS COME UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE WAVE IS SUCH THAT THE DRYLINE IS LOCATED OVER THE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE VERY HIGH (60-65F) TO THE EAST. INSTABILITY IS EXCELLENT (LI VALUES OF -9C) AS IS DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SVR STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. OF COURSE IF THE WAVE IS SLOWER AND THE SFC TROUGH IS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BACK UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE THEN THE SVR THREAT WOULD EXTEND TO ALMOST THE ENTIRE PLAINS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 GFS SHOWS MAIN SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A MID/UPPER DRYSLOT WORKING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THIS FAR NORTH WITH THE UPPER DRYSLOT AND HENCE WOULD SUGGEST SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA AND OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND... GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT OVERALL MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND FAIRLY ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SEMI- ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WHEN EACH PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE OUR AREA...SO WE KEPT AT LEAST SOME POPS GOING MOST AREAS WITH CHANCE POPS CONCENTRATED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY AS GFS (AND TO SOME DEGREE THE ECMWF) DEPICTS A LARGESCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING TO OUR EAST WITH RIDGING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH ON AMPLIFYING THE EASTERN TROUGH...SO WE MAY END UP RAISING POPS FOR SUNDAY ON SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 SATELLITE PICS TONIGHT SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH A HINT OF FOG/STRATUS NEAR KBFF AND KAIA AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...SO COULD SEE SOME LOW VSBYS/CIGS CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT KLAR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POTENTIALLY SPILLING DOWN INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY. SFC WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND COULD BRING MVFR CIGS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO KCYS AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS WYOMING AFTER 17Z. SFC WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW T-STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THIS UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 15 PERCENT BY TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT FORECASTED SINCE FUELS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE GROWTH. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014 RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED AND STAGES SHOULD BEGIN TO RECEDE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOWMELT EACH DAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GARMON SHORT TERM...FINCH LONG TERM...GARMON AVIATION...RJM FIRE WEATHER...FINCH HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR COOLING TODAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO DRIZZLE AT THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FROM MID WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...TRUE TO ITS NAME JUNE GLOOM APPEARS TO BE TAKING OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED SO FAR. SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THAT IT IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS AND LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS WITH A COVERAGE PATTERN CLOSE TO OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS GREATLY EXCEEDING THE WESTERLY PIECE, THE ROLES HAVE REVERSED ALLOWING FOR THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE DIRECT FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS, COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS APPROACHING OUR AREA, WILL LEAD TO HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT MANY INLAND SPOTS. LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS. SIMILAR THE EARLY THIS MORNING, FOR TONIGHT GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. IN FACT, LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF THE DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF IT IN THE FORECAST GOING AROUND THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS END UP GETTING AROUND 0.05" OUT OF IT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS BOTH INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES OFF TO THE EAST. WORTH NOTING THAT EARLY RUNS OF THE MODELS HAD BEEN DISAGREEING WITH THE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW (GFS RIDGE, WHILE ECMWF WAS FAVORING MORE ZONAL FLOW). GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT WE ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE HOT WEATHER THIS WEEK. LONG RANGE OUTLOOK KEEPS US DRY (OUTSIDE OF DRIZZLE). ECMWF SLIDES ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BY NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE AT THE COAST WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK CLOSER TO WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. && .AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT MONDAY...ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE BAY AREA. N-S GRADIENT IS WEAKER AND THE ONSHORE GRADIENT IS STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2K FEET PER FT ORD PROFILER. THEREFORE...THE STRATUS IS FILLING IN A LITTLE MORE THAN YESTERDAY. ONE SIMILARITY TO YESTERDAY MORNING IS THE HOLE OVER KSFO AGAIN. THAT BEING SAID...THE HOLE APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING AS STRATUS CREEPS IN FROM THE SOUTH. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY CIGS THIS MORNING. CLEARING OF STRATUS COULD BE LATER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE CURRENT GRADIENT SET UP. CONF IS MEDIUM. VICINITY OF KSFO...DECIDED TO ADD A TEMPO FOR KSFO AS CIGS SLOWLY DEVELOP THIS MORNING. HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE AND 1KM WRF SUGGEST SOME PATCHY CIGS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING OF ANY CLOUDS AROUND 17-18Z. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CIGS AT 1K FEET WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH POSSIBLE CLEARING 17-18Z. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS 500-700FT THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING CLOSE TO 18-19Z. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP CIGS IN AT KMRY ALL DAY...BUT THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY. && .MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT REYES THROUGH MIDWEEK. NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD LATE THIS WEEK. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL AVIATION/MARINE: MM VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
334 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WHILE THE COAST WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING. && .DISCUSSION...FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN TWO LOWS. ONE JUST OFF THE COAST WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING FROM THE NORTH AND A SECOND LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WHICH WILL MOVE INLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEING PULLED BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND THE LOWS. TIMING OF LOWS TO MOVE INLAND IS IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING, GFS SHOWING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE 500-1800J/KG RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE RIDGE LINE BETWEEN TRINITY AND SISKIYOU COUNTY AND FURTHER NORTH. LAST PERIOD OF 06Z RUN OF HRRR VALID AT 21Z(2 PM) SHOWING ISOLATED CELLS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. ONLY CONCERN IS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A MORE STABLE LAYER ABOUT 600 MB WHICH MAY CAP SOME OF THE VERTICAL MOTION BUT LEFT SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. VERY LITTLE SHEAR SO EXPECT MORE PULSE TYPE TSTMS. AIRMASS STARTING OUT DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT WITH VERY SLOW CELL MOVEMENT EXPECT AIRMASS TO QUICKLY MOISTEN UP WITH WET THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TSTMS WILL END AFTER SUNSET AS TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. YET ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY BUT AIRMASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AND LEFT SLIGHT CHC TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. BY WED, RIDGE TRYING TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CUT OFF LOW OVER BAY AREA BUT THIS LOOKS TOO WEAK AND TOO FAR SOUTH AND WILL JUST PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MAINLY MENDO COUNTY. FOR LATER INTO THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, A DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED INLAND. AT THE COAST, UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH CHANGE ON THE STRATUS FIELD WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM INLAND STARTING WED AS RIDGE BUILDS WITH HIGHS JUMPING INTO THE MID 90S. AT THE COAST, NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED. DEAN && .AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AND INLAND UP THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. THIS CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN SPREAD N ACROSS KCEC ON S FLOW. THE S FLOW HAS SINCE DROPPED BACK OFF...BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD ON UNTIL BREAKING UP LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG BY SUNRISE AT KCEC AND KACV...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY DROPPING BELOW 3SM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AS THERMAL TROF AXIS HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND RELAXED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KCEC DURING THE AFTERNOON. /SEC && .MARINE...AS MENTIONED...THE THERMAL TROF AXIS HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE COAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE S PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE LEFT THE GALE WARNING IN PLACE FOR THE N OUTER WATERS DUE TO GUSTS. HAVE SCALED BACK TO A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME...HAVE SHIFTED TO A GALE WATCH. THIS WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED BY THE DAY SHIFT AS MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A MARKED UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS BY THAT TIME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. STRONG NORTHERLIES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDO AND PT ST GEORGE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 16 TO 18 FT RANGE IN THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH PERIODS RANGING FROM 9 TO 11 SECONDS. /SEC && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ450-455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ470. GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING PZZ475. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1035 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... 14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TAKES ON A ZONAL CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. FINALLY...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE FLOW TURNS NORTH INTO LONGWAVE RIDING IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN IN THIS VICINITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE ONLY INFLUENCE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO OUR LOCAL WEATHER IS THE ARRIVAL OF WAVES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERHEAD THAT ARE WRAPPING AROUND ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THROUGH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AND THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP OVERALL DIURNAL INSTABILITY DOWN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A CONTINUED MOIST PROFILE WITH A PW VALUE OF AROUND 1.85". THE MID-LEVELS HAVE CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (A TREND THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY)...AND 500MB TEMPS ARE NOW UP TO AROUND -7C. THESE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY HOLD BACK UPDRAFT STRENGTH ALOFT. IN FACT THE LAPSE RATE THROUGH PARTS OF THE CONVECTION COLUMN ARE MOIST ADIABATIC OR LESS. THESE WOULD BE CONSIDERED POOR LAPSE RATES TO EXPECT ANY VIGOROUS CONVECTION...AND SIGNIFICANT CHARGE SEPARATION FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WILL NEED TO GET DECENT CONVECTIVE CORES UP OVER 20KFT BEFORE WE ENCOUNTER ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE IN THE CLOUD LAYER...AND NOT SURE WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFTS ABOVE THIS LAYER. NOW ALL THIS LEANS AGAINST MUCH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...BUT NOT AGAINST RAIN ITSELF. THE COLUMN IS VERY MOIST...AND EVEN A FEW SUNNY BREAKS FOR THINNER CIRRUS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO BUBBLE UP. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST. THE GRADIENT IS RATHER TIGHT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF. THE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE EAST TO ONCE AGAIN PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OR INLAND PENETRATION OF A SEA-BREEZE. ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY IS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS CHANGE IS REALLY ONLY DENOTED BY A SMALL DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY (GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-4) WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES...A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS IS SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. IT WILL BE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT THE PASSING SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OVER THE NATURE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST AND SOUTH WITH TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL PUSH THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF. EXPECT LAND BASED SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...BUT FOR THOSE PLANNING AN OFFSHORE BOATING EXCURSION OFF THE SUNCOAST...THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GO ALL NIGHT...AIDED BY BROAD SYNOPTIC DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS BY DAWN...AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHOVED SOUTH AND THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY DAY. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND 30 PERCENT DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS. EVEN THIS POPS THIS MAY BE AGGRESSIVE. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE AND SEE IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES ALL TOGETHER FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. IF SHOWERS ARE GOING TO OCCUR...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER...EVEN FOR THESE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...DO NOT EXPECT A WET DAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN...DOES LOOK LIKE A LOT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S...AS OPPOSED TO LOWER 90S. HAVE A GREAT MONDAY...AND ENJOY THE DRIER WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS! && .MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 00Z CYCLE. GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT THE DEEPEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE IN MOST LOCALES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FROM THE GULF COAST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MERGER MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN TOWARD KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS DOES SHOW A MORE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AND GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA...PREFERRED TO LEAN THE FORECAST HEAVILY IN THIS DIRECTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POPS SOLIDLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION... AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THIS MID MORNING FROM KSRQ SOUTHWARD. THE CIG HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING AND EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGES SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A SURGE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERLY SURGES...YOU CAN EXPECT MODERATE SEAS IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET AND 1 TO 2 FEET ALONG THE COASTLINE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THESE EASTERLY SURGES...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS CAUSING GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...HIGH SEAS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW CAUTIONARY OR HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 71 86 71 / 40 20 20 10 FMY 87 71 88 70 / 60 30 30 10 GIF 86 69 86 69 / 30 10 20 10 SRQ 88 71 87 70 / 60 20 20 10 BKV 87 68 87 66 / 30 10 20 10 SPG 85 74 86 74 / 50 20 20 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA MID TERM/LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA MARINE...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
901 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE...WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE AXIS ALONG WASHINGTON OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF FCST AREA SO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED TO AFTERNOON BUILD UPS OVER HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED TODAY. DMH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2014/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE ISLAND PARK AREA THIS MORNING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A PRETTY NICE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY LATE MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE LOOKING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM AND WRF ARE OVERDOING THINGS...WHILE THE GFS AND HRRR ARE UNDERDOING. THAT IS WHY WE WENT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE AND ISOLATED STORMS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A STRAY STORM IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR OAKLEY AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BY MORNING...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY MOVING CLOSER TO THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE STILL FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OVERALL TOMORROW WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A HAILEY TO MONTPELIER LINE. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT NON- SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SPEED OF TOMORROW`S SYSTEM AND ITS EXIT FROM OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM PUSHES WELL EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS IT ONLY ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. THIS GREATLY AFFECTS THE AMOUNT OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH A SLOWER PATTERN AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GOING BACK TO TOMORROW`S WEATHER...WE ARE LOOKING AT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN. WE MAY APPROACH THE LOW END THRESHOLD FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WE ARE STICKING WITH WINDS A BIT BELOW THAT WHICH DOES MEAN THAT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THOUGH FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY TODAY WITH SEVERAL PLACES HITTING THE LOW/MID 80S. IT WILL COOL DOWN THOUGH TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THAT BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. KEYES LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING STILL WITH HOW FAR SOUTH A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE MAY SEE ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES FARTHER SOUTH...WE COULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE KEEP ANY REAL THREAT IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. BEYOND THAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FARTHER APART. THE ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH A SLOWER MOVING LOW ACROSS OUR AREA AND A DECENT SHOT AT RAIN BY MONDAY. THE GFS IS A LOT QUICKER AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE GOING FORECAST OF ANY DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RUNNING AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW 80S RETURN FROM TIME TO TIME BUT 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MOST VALLEYS WILL BE COMMON...AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND KSUN 21Z-03Z TODAY. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AT BOTH KSUN AND KIDA. FOR KBYI AND KPIH...WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RS FIRE WEATHER...WE BEGIN THE DAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVANCING INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO THE SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED IN THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL BOOST THE HAINES INDEX TO 6 FOR AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF BIG SOUTHERN BUTTE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE APPROACHING TROUGH HAS TIME TO COOL THE AIR DOWN AND INCREASE THE HUMIDITY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN SAWTOOTH AND SALMON-CHALLIS FOREST AREA. MOISTURE DEEPENS AND THE CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES OVER NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY MOST SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF A PICABO TO GRAYS LAKE LINE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE ARCO DESERT AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. RS HYDROLOGY...RIVER MODELS AGAIN KEEPING ALL GAUGES BELOW BANKFULL FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENCY IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SNOTEL DATA INDICATES THE TETONS ARE THE LAST HOLD OUT FOR SNOW DEPTH AND MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. SWIFT FLOWS AND HIGH WATER ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR TRIBUTARIES AND CREEKS LEADING TO THE MAIN RIVERS PARTICULARLY THROUGH TETON BASIN. FLOODING NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. DMH/KEYES && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1053 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... 331 AM CDT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL- ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED STORMS. CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC. ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD. MTF && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z... * GUSTY S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL. * LINE OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS SHORTLY...WITH A POSSIBLE TEMPO SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT FOR A SHORT PERIOD. KB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z... FOR THE TAF UPDATE I HAVE TRIED TO CONVEY A BETTER TIMING ON THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD APPROACH NORTHEASTERLY ILLINOIS AROUND MIDDAY. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THIS PERIOD...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...IT APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL HELP LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. KB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... LOW PRESSURE IS OVER MINNESOTA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING ALL DAY WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SO FAR ONLY SCT OR FEW DECKS AT THE TERMINALS. WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING AND SOUPY AIR...STILL HAVE SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS AND COULD SEE OCNL BKN MVFR CIGS. EXPECTING ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR RFD AND THEN THIS AFTN AND PERHAPS INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR CONVECTION. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO HINT AT LIMITED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE VCTS IN FOR LATE THIS AFTN. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT WILL REDUCE VSBY AND MAY HAVE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUSTS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SW WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AT 10-15 KT. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING. JEE //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z... * HIGH WITH LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. * LOW WITH ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. * HIGH WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS. KB //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z... TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE. WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR. SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL. JEE && .MARINE... 245 PM CDT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25 KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
904 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... 331 AM CDT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL- ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED STORMS. CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC. ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD. MTF && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z... * GUSTY S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL. * LINE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY. * MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE STORMS. JEE/KB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z... FOR THE TAF UPDATE I HAVE TRIED TO CONVEY A BETTER TIMING ON THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD APPROACH NORTHEASTERLY ILLINOIS AROUND MIDDAY. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THIS PERIOD...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...IT APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL HELP LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. KB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... LOW PRESSURE IS OVER MINNESOTA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING ALL DAY WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SO FAR ONLY SCT OR FEW DECKS AT THE TERMINALS. WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING AND SOUPY AIR...STILL HAVE SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS AND COULD SEE OCNL BKN MVFR CIGS. EXPECTING ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR RFD AND THEN THIS AFTN AND PERHAPS INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR CONVECTION. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO HINT AT LIMITED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE VCTS IN FOR LATE THIS AFTN. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT WILL REDUCE VSBY AND MAY HAVE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUSTS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SW WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AT 10-15 KT. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING. JEE //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH WITH SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY. * LOW WITH ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. * HIGH WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS. JEE/KB //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z... TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE. WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR. SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL. JEE && .MARINE... 245 PM CDT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25 KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
655 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... 331 AM CDT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL- ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED STORMS. CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC. ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD. MTF && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z... * GUSTY S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL THIS AFTN. * ISOL TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTN. * MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL WITH THE STORMS. JEE //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... LOW PRESSURE IS OVER MINNESOTA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING ALL DAY WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SO FAR ONLY SCT OR FEW DECKS AT THE TERMINALS. WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING AND SOUPY AIR...STILL HAVE SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS AND COULD SEE OCNL BKN MVFR CIGS. EXPECTING ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR RFD AND THEN THIS AFTN AND PERHAPS INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR CONVECTION. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO HINT AT LIMITED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE VCTS IN FOR LATE THIS AFTN. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT WILL REDUCE VSBY AND MAY HAVE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUSTS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SW WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AT 10-15 KT. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY MID MORNING. JEE //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MAY SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TODAY. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS. JEE //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z... TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE. WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR. SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL. JEE && .MARINE... 245 PM CDT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25 KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1142 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS MORNING AS SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS AND SOLID TEMPERATURE ADVECTION HAVE WARMED READINGS TO AROUND 80. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH LI/S AROUND -4C. WIND FIELDS ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE WITH THE 850MB LLJ PROGD TO BE IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL JET IS ON THE ORDER OF 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KNOTS AT 21Z. A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO PLOW EAST AS WELL MARCHING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN AT 15Z. SO...THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST THE SCATTERED CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. GIVEN A UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE EXPECTING STRONG WINDS TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. OF EQUAL CONCERN THOUGH WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS AS PWAT VALUES ARE UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS WILL HAVE THE THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL AS WELL. IN TERMS OF MORPHOLOGY THERE WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL LAKE SHADOW IN THE DIVERGENT WINDS OFF THE LAKE AT LEAST INITIALLY. LIFT VIA THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH A DECENT SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH WILL BE INLAND FROM NEAR HIGHWAY 131 AND POINTS EAST. HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD DISCRETE CELLS FIRING INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A LINE OF STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD BE SWEEPING EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 7-9PM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST INTO OUR REGION AND STRONG SSW WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT A WARM A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO LOWER MI. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING/MAX INSTABILITY WHEN SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ML CAPE VALUES WILL REACH 500-1000 J/KG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION WOULD BE NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131 AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND FORCING WILL COME FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WX THREAT IS MITIGATED BY SEVERAL FACTORS THOUGH INCLUDING RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY/FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TODAY AND WEAK BULK SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. THE NEXT FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO IMPACT OUR FCST AREA WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SPREAD IS STILL NOTED AMONG THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE WITH 00Z NAM SHOWING AN MCS COULD AFFECT OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH IT/S FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION. HOWEVER MOST SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL EITHER CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA SOUTH OF I-96 OR MISS OUR AREA ALTOGETHER AND AFFECT IN/OH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS POTENTIAL FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 ANOTHER STRETCH OF PLEASANT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES SINKING FARTHER SOUTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SFC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN MODERATE TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE WARM AIR TRIES TO RETURN NORTH AHEAD OF A WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE/AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AT 12Z WILL BE REPLACED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY MVFR AS THIS OCCURS... ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20Z AND 23Z... WITH VFR FOLLOWING BEHIND THE RAIN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AFTER DARK... PARTICULARLY EAST OF GRR/AZO... BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. SOUTH SFC WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 OPTED TO EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL ZONES GIVEN THE WINDS IN PLACE AT THE PRESENT TIME. WAVES HAVE BUILT TO AROUND 5 FEET AT THE LUDINGTON BUOY IN THE LONGEST FETCH IN OUR MARINE ZONES. WAVES ARE MORE IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE FROM GRAND HAVEN TO THE SOUTH. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR IS BEING ADVECTED OUT OF THE WATERS OF THE BIG LAKE. BEACH HAZARDS ARE NOT A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN GIVEN HOW COLD THE WATER IS STILL. HIGHEST WAVES ARE UP NORTH AND THE WATER TEMP AT LUDINGTON STATE PARK THIS MORNING WAS 52 DEGREES. SO...NOT EXPECTING A HIGH POPULATION OF FOLKS VENTURING INTO THE WATER JUST YET. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 RIVER LEVELS ARE DECREASING SLOWLY BUT MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS FROM THUNDERSTORMS... RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL PROBABLY RISE A BIT. QPF FROM A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...DUKE SYNOPSIS...LAURENS SHORT TERM...LAURENS LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...MEADE HYDROLOGY...93 MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
750 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 CONCERNS FOCUS ON AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN THE ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE WRN CWA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS GENERALLY RESULTED IN LITTLE TO NO PCPN OVER UPPER MI FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS. YESTERDAYS RAIN SHOWERS AND THE CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS HOWEVER RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS FOG/STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INLAND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE PORTION OF UPPER MI ALONG LAKE MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. EXPECT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL DIURNAL MIXING HELPS SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVELS BY LATE MORNING. WITH SPOTTER REPORTS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE KEWEENAW HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES THROUGH 11 AM. THE LATEST HRRR RUN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER WI. ONE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SCNTRL WI INTO NE WI LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ALONG THETA-E RDG AXIS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHILE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WRN WI IS TIED TO MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH MN AND NE IA AND LIFT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BAND OVER SCNTRL ERN WI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALLY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SE UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...THE RAIN BAND OVER WRN AND NCNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SUPPORTING IT ROTATES NE FROM MN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG AND PWATS TO NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 35-40 KT MAY ALLOW SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO ERN COUNTIES MAINLY AFT 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TIED WITH THE MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOC SECONDARY COLD FRONT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND NEG SHOWALTER INDICES COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TSRA INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN A TRANSITION TO ANOTHER PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS THIS LOWS CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...A LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OR WESTERN U.P. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE FEATURES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY VALUES IN THE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO SHIFT EAST BUT WILL ALSO BE PULLED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT THE POPS (CHANCES) EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHILE ALSO DIMINISHING THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST...SO WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO A WEST TO EAST DIMINISHING TREND TO THE FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TREND SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS (25 KTS) OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ARE DIFFICULT ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM START TO THE DAY...THEN COOLING WITH THE MORNING RAIN SHOWERS...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN WITH SOME SUN IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH THE KEWEENAW MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S WITH THE STRONG WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT FROM A PARENT HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK SHIFT EAST. IT WAS HINTED AT YESTERDAY AND CONTINUED WITH TODAYS 00Z RUNS THAT A FINAL SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...SO WILL JUST MENTION A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME OVER THE EAST. IN ADDITION...MAY SEEM SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP MOVES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP THINGS COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR (TEMPS IN THE 50S)...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE THE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS AND A LITTLE STRONGER WINDS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOWER 70S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. BEHIND THIS LAST WAVE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE U.P. THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND GENERALLY NORMAL TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S (SOME UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY NIGHT) FOR LOWS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND LEAD TO THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS WAVE COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS NEARING WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL JUST SHOW SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL VARY ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA SHOWN BY THEM AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT KCMX AND KSAW WILL IMPROVE TO IFR OR MVFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING AND THE ONSET OF STEADIER SHRA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FM MN. CONDITIONS AT KIWD WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THIS MORNING UNDER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR VFR BEHIND THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 OTHER THAN SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 30KTS THROUGH THE FCST PD. LIGHTER WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE SO HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN ZONE OF LAKE. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR LSZ162- 240>250-263>266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
932 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO SKY COVER THIS MORNING GIVEN A STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IT BEGINNING TO BREAK UP...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO PUSHED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO PHILLIPS AND GARFIELD COUNTIES BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE. GILCHRIST PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE DAY BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA...FINALLY CHASING THE WEEKEND TROUGH OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY. BUT TODAY WILL SEE MILD CONDITIONS DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS IN EASTERN COUNTIES WILL MOVE ON BY AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INSURE WIND GENERALLY REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. WIND IN THE EAST WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE DEPARTING LOW...BEGINNING WITH NORTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 10-15KT THAT DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART...CONVECTION PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN WEAK. SO CUT POPS BACK TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER. MONDAY NIGHT THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BACK UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST TO INTRODUCE MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER. ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES VEER WITH HEIGHT. MODERATE BULK SHEAR AND CAPE COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN STORM STRENGTH HOWEVER WILL FOCUS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE DIVIDE AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WETTING RAIN. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO INCREASE WIND...FIRST FROM THE SOUTHEAST...THEN THE NORTHWEST. SCT .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... A SHALLOW UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN IS DRIER AND COOLER FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND MODEST CYCLONIC FLOW SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. EBERT && .AVIATION... FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR WITH FUEL LOADING TRANSITIONING TO VFR. SYNOPSIS: NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF A BROKEN TO OVERCAST 1-3 KFT STRATUS DECK STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DOWN TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP OVER THE NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS REVEALING VFR SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO FEW CUMULUS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS... BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNSET. GAH && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
948 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 RADAR LOOPS AND LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A PERSISTENT SHOWER AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WITH H8 TEMPERATURE FIELD AS COOL AS IT IS...CURRENT THINKING IS THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER SO REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WENT A BIT COOLER SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 SHOWERS CONTINUE IN DEFORMATION ZONE FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND SLOWLY EXITING LOW EXTENDS WEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA...SO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO START THE DAY. AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL EXTENDS SOUTH PAST GARRISON WITH EVEN A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO BISMARCK. LOOKING AHEAD TO TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR NOW EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THINK THAT BY THE TIME WE SEE A THREAT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE SHIFTED EVEN FARTHER EAST. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST REFLECTIVITY STILL SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EAST IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SOME MODERATE SHOWERS IN AND NORTH OF MINOT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SLOWLY SLIDING THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY FALL OFF AFTER 18 UTC FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS ALSO DIMINISHED TONIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF CHANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THUS HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES AT ISOLATED. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN HAS MOST LIKELY ALREADY FALLEN FROM THIS SYSTEM...NOT KNOWING THE FULL EFFECTS OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THE THREAT FOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND SMALL STREAMS IS STILL PRESENT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON CLOSEST TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE...AND HOLDS OFF ON CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STRONGER BUT THE EARLIER WAVE WILL HELP CLEAR OUT A LOT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS THE MOISTURE RECOVERY ON THURSDAY LOOKS MEAGER IN THE WEST AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD. WE REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH AND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OUR SOUTH. COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT POSSIBLE CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS KEPT SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOW DEWPOINTS...THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 LOW STRATUS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS PROVIDING MVFR OVER THE WEST AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CENTRAL THIS MORNING. SHOWERS REMAIN NORTH AROUND KMOT AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT SITE KJMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE LOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK APART FROM SOUTHWEST AT KDIK AROUND 22 UTC MONDAY TO NORTHEAST FOR SITES KBIS AND KISN...THEN KMOT AROUND 06 UTC TUESDAY. LOW CEILING CONDITIONS OF LIFR TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND AT SITE KJMS THROUGH THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE. TOMORROW NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND COMBINED WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WAA SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND WILL USHER IN MUCH MORE HUMID AIR. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MID-WEEK...KEEPING IT UNSETTLED WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN BOUNDARY BETWEEN WARM AND SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SEASONABLE AIR WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... 1030 AM UPDATE... SHOWERS IN THE SW ARE RATHER INNOCUOUS AND SLATED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY THE RUC AND HRRRRRRR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TEMPS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE EAST AND WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP TEMPS AT OR BELOW 80F EVERYWHERE. M70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVS IN THE NORTH MAY BE THE LOWEST OF HIGHS THIS AFTN. 830 AM UPDATE... SHOWERS MOVING INTO SWRN COS ARRIVING 1-2 HRS AHEAD OF SCHD. WILL BUMP POPS UP THERE...AND CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER EVEN THOUGH LATEST LTG TREND IS DOWNWARD. HEATING MAY ADD ENUF TO LLVL LAPSE RATES. PREV... UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSING CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WITH DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE OH/PA BORDER ON FRESHENING SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AROUND SW TO NE ORIENTED MID ATLANTIC SFC RIDGE. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EAST OF OHIO VALLEY 850 MB LLJ. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY AT LEAST WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AS RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER AND DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES TO OVER 1.5" PW THIS EVENING...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD...BUT IT MAY STILL BE DIFFICULT TO SPROUT ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO CAPPING WARM AIR ALOFT. CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS THE WEST TO SUPPORT MID CHC POPS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO INCREASE POPS FARTHER EAST ON TUESDAY...AS WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL PA AND SHEARING UPPER TROF SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IMPRESSIVE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +16C SHOULD SPELL OUT WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH...WITH NORTHERN AREAS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80F. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MIDWEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH DEWPOINTS HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FADE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. NARROW RIDGE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW SLOWLY SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS IN FROM THE WEST. SCT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND COLD FRONT BECOMES ALIGNED MORE W-E AND STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. AS WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE W-E FLOW...RENMANTS OF AN MCS OFF TO OUR WEST MAY PLAY A FACTOR IN FOCUSING TSTM ACTIVITY ON WED - AND SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION CENTRAL PA IN THE DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. FRONT LINGERS AROUND THE MASON/DIXON LINE THU INTO FRI /WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT POSITIONING/...KEEPING MENTION OF SCT TSTMS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH. THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN PA...TRACK OF CLOSED UPPER LOW UP THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY WILL KEEP MENTION OF POSS INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...BUT OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TENN/OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO REORGANIZE AND LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND - AGAIN INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING A MORE HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. STABILITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTN AND ALLOW FOR SCT CONVECTION/SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER IN THE N/W. MVFR CIGS IN THE WEST MAY RISE A BIT THIS AFTN AS MIXING GETS DEEPER...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO IT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. REDUCTIONS IN VIS FROM SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KAOO AND KUNV WESTWARD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS SUNSET...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIGS AND VSBYS REDUCING TO MVFR OR LOWER AT BFD AFTER 06Z. EXPECT REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. OUTLOOK... TUE...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. THU...SHRA/VSBY REDUCTIONS POSS SOUTHERN PA. FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
844 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE... INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING AND LOWERED POPS AND TEMPS. A LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS MOVING DOWN OUT OF ND THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP ANY DAYTIME HEATING IN CHECK THIS MORNING. THEN WITH CAA THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST WILL JUST NOT BE ABLE TO CATCH UP. SO DROPPED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S. PRECIP ON THE OTHER HAND IS GETTING HUNG UP IN ND. THE HRRR DOES NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP ENTERING THE NORTHEAST UNTIL AROUND 18Z SO ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS PASSED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS AREA WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW. A FEW WIDELY SCT THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS AREA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH ALREADY BEGINS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST CWA ON TUESDAY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW AND SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 12 AND ESPECIALLY GOOD SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE OVER SOUTHERN SD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MLCAPE VALUES ARE VERY LOW WITH ALL THE INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...CLOSER TO THE SFC WARM FRONT. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SVR POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...KEEPING THE CWA IN A PRIME AREA FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. CANNOT REALLY RULE OUT ANY TIME PERIOD THAT WILL BE DRY...SO WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND POPS...WHICH KEEP SCHC/CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THURSDAY GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL DROP MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN DOMINATING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID MORNING...THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WISE SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...PARKIN AVIATION...PARKIN WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
920 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR COOLING TODAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO DRIZZLE AT THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FROM MID WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 AM PDT MONDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A MODEST MARINE LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE WITH STRATUS WELL DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING THE STRATUS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO BURN-OFF ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER ALL DAY LONG WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TO MID/UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TYPICAL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE ARE EXPECTED. THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...TRUE TO ITS NAME JUNE GLOOM APPEARS TO BE TAKING OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED SO FAR. SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THAT IT IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS AND LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS WITH A COVERAGE PATTERN CLOSE TO OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS GREATLY EXCEEDING THE WESTERLY PIECE, THE ROLES HAVE REVERSED ALLOWING FOR THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE DIRECT FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS, COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS APPROACHING OUR AREA, WILL LEAD TO HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT MANY INLAND SPOTS. LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS. SIMILAR THE EARLY THIS MORNING, FOR TONIGHT GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. IN FACT, LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF THE DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF IT IN THE FORECAST GOING AROUND THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS END UP GETTING AROUND 0.05" OUT OF IT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS BOTH INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES OFF TO THE EAST. WORTH NOTING THAT EARLY RUNS OF THE MODELS HAD BEEN DISAGREEING WITH THE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW (GFS RIDGE, WHILE ECMWF WAS FAVORING MORE ZONAL FLOW). GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT WE ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE HOT WEATHER THIS WEEK. LONG RANGE OUTLOOK KEEPS US DRY (OUTSIDE OF DRIZZLE). ECMWF SLIDES ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BY NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE AT THE COAST WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK CLOSER TO WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. && .AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT MONDAY...ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE BAY AREA. N-S GRADIENT IS WEAKER AND THE ONSHORE GRADIENT IS STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2K FEET PER FT ORD PROFILER. THEREFORE...THE STRATUS IS FILLING IN A LITTLE MORE THAN YESTERDAY. ONE SIMILARITY TO YESTERDAY MORNING IS THE HOLE OVER KSFO AGAIN. THAT BEING SAID...THE HOLE APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING AS STRATUS CREEPS IN FROM THE SOUTH. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY CIGS THIS MORNING. CLEARING OF STRATUS COULD BE LATER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE CURRENT GRADIENT SET UP. CONF IS MEDIUM. VICINITY OF KSFO...DECIDED TO ADD A TEMPO FOR KSFO AS CIGS SLOWLY DEVELOP THIS MORNING. HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE AND 1KM WRF SUGGEST SOME PATCHY CIGS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING OF ANY CLOUDS AROUND 17-18Z. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CIGS AT 1K FEET WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH POSSIBLE CLEARING 17-18Z. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS 500-700FT THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING CLOSE TO 18-19Z. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP CIGS IN AT KMRY ALL DAY...BUT THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY. && .MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT REYES THROUGH MIDWEEK. NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD LATE THIS WEEK. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS AVIATION/MARINE: MM VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
150 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM (REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)... 18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TAKES ON A ZONAL CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. FINALLY...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE FLOW TURNS NORTH INTO LONGWAVE RIDING IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN IN THIS VICINITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE ONLY INFLUENCE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO OUR LOCAL WEATHER IS THE ARRIVAL OF WAVES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERHEAD THAT ARE WRAPPING AROUND ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THROUGH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AND THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP OVERALL DIURNAL INSTABILITY DOWN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A CONTINUED MOIST PROFILE WITH A PW VALUE OF AROUND 1.85". THE MID-LEVELS HAVE CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (A TREND THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY)...AND 500MB TEMPS ARE NOW UP TO AROUND -7C. THESE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY HOLD BACK UPDRAFT STRENGTH ALOFT. IN FACT THE LAPSE RATE THROUGH PARTS OF THE CONVECTION COLUMN ARE MOIST ADIABATIC OR LESS. THESE WOULD BE CONSIDERED POOR LAPSE RATES TO EXPECT ANY VIGOROUS CONVECTION...AND SIGNIFICANT CHARGE SEPARATION FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WILL NEED TO GET DECENT CONVECTIVE CORES UP OVER 20KFT BEFORE WE ENCOUNTER ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE IN THE CLOUD LAYER...AND NOT SURE WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFTS ABOVE THIS LAYER THE REST OF THE DAY. ALL THIS LEANS AGAINST MUCH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...BUT NOT AGAINST RAIN ITSELF. THE COLUMN IS VERY MOIST...AND EVEN A FEW SUNNY BREAKS FOR THINNER CIRRUS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST. THE GRADIENT IS RATHER TIGHT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF. THE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE EAST TO ONCE AGAIN PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OR INLAND PENETRATION OF A SEA-BREEZE. ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY IS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS CHANGE IS REALLY ONLY DENOTED BY A SMALL DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY (GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-4) WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES...A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY THE PAST FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. IT WILL BE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT THE PASSING SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND THE NATURE COAST...BUT THE ACTIVITY FOR THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST. NOT MUCH AS CHANGED IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY GOING FORWARD INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO INDICATED THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WEST AND SOUTH WITH TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL PUSH THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF. EXPECT LAND BASED SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...BUT FOR THOSE PLANNING AN OFFSHORE BOATING EXCURSION OFF THE SUNCOAST...THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GO ALL NIGHT...AIDED BY BROAD SYNOPTIC DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS BY DAWN...AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHOVED SOUTH AND THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY DAY. BASED ON THE LATEST NWP...HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE ALL RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. IF SHOWERS ARE GOING TO OCCUR...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER...EVEN FOR THESE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...DO NOT EXPECT A WET DAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN...DOES STILL LOOK LIKE A LOT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...AS OPPOSED TO LOWER 90S. && .MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 00Z CYCLE. GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT THE DEEPEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE IN MOST LOCALES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FROM THE GULF COAST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MERGER MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN TOWARD KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS DOES SHOW A MORE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AND GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA...PREFERRED TO LEAN THE FORECAST HEAVILY IN THIS DIRECTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POPS SOLIDLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION... PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY TERMINALS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND THE KFMY/KRSW AREA WITH DECREASING CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH ONE TRAVELS. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FORECAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE SUN RISES TUESDAY MORNING...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGES SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A SURGE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERLY SURGES...YOU CAN EXPECT MODERATE SEAS IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET AND 1 TO 2 FEET ALONG THE COASTLINE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THESE EASTERLY SURGES...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS CAUSING GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...HIGH SEAS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW CAUTIONARY OR HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THIS WEEK. SHOWER COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO BE MUCH LESS THAN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED LATELY. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 71 88 71 89 / 20 10 10 10 FMY 71 87 70 90 / 40 30 10 30 GIF 70 87 69 89 / 10 10 10 10 SRQ 71 86 70 88 / 30 20 10 20 BKV 67 88 66 90 / 10 10 10 10 SPG 74 87 74 89 / 30 20 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA MID TERM/LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA MARINE...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
511 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... 211 PM CDT MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTN THRU EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO REDEVELOP AFTER THE MORNING LINE OF CONVECTION. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND DRY AIR IS QUICKLY RIDING ALONG THE HEELS OF THE MOIST AXIS THAT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...STRETCHING OVER NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN MIDDAY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS QUICKLY ERODING INTO A CUMULUS FIELD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...AND EXPECT THIS TO ARRIVE OVER NORTHEAST IL EARLY THIS AFTN. SFC FLOW WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY...DESPITE DEW POINTS LIKELY HOLDING UP IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BASED OFF OF GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER IT IS VERY THIN CAPE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN/EVE...BUT WITH THE LACK OF INHIBITION ANY ACTIVITY THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WOULD BE ISOLATED AND LIKELY END ARND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER. THEN ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND PROVIDES SOME DRYING TONIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT...HOLDING GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY... ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG NORTHERN MISSOURI STRETCHING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN IN UNTIL LATE TUE AFTN. SKIES SHUD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. THE CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY TUE WILL BE ON HOW WARM SFC TEMPS CAN BECOME...AS FAR NORTHERN IL MAY HOLD IN THE UPR 70S AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA STILL TOUCH THE LOW/MID 80S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTN TUE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT...AND HAS ONLY EXHIBITED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT. MID-LVL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES THE FOCAL POINT TUE NGT...AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE/EARLY WED. PWAT VALUES AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE WILL PUSH TO ARND 1.75-2"...WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEADILY LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CWFA LATE TUE EVE. THIS WILL BRING DEW POINTS BACK TO THE LOW/MID 60S...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED BETWEEN 50-60KTS OVER EASTERN NE/NORTHERN KS STRETCHING EAST THRU THE CWFA ARND 9Z WED. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN MCS DEVELOP TUE AFTN/EVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA...AND WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE. GIVEN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST EARLY WED MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWFA...MAINTENANCE OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT. THEN IT DOES APPEAR THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE ON A WIND THREAT AND LARGE HAIL. THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR WED WILL BE AFTN CONVECTION...WHICH HINGES ON HOW THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL CWFA EARLY WED AFTN...AS THE MID-LVL WAVE BEGINS TO NEAR THE AREA. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE GOING FORECAST...WITH AFTN SHRA/TSRA IN THE FORECAST. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED IS RATHER QUIET...WITH MINIMAL SIGNAL TOWARDS ANY SIZABLE WARM-UP OR COOL PERIODS. HOWEVER THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FEATURING A BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC SFC FEATURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STRETCHING NORTH TO HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP SFC WINDS NORTHEAST/EAST...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THUR/FRI OR GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH 60S ALONG THE IL LAKESHORE. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH A SEMI-ZONAL LONGWAVE PATTERN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS SFC FEATURE LINGERING BEYOND SAT IS LOW. ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO HINT THAT A MID-LVL TROUGH MAY TRY TO DROP SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA SAT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THEN PIVOT THIS FEATURE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A VORT THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS TO RIDE ALONG THE VORT AXIS AND COULD BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SAT-EARLY MON. THEN THE OTHER FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE THERMAL RIDGE TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS COULD BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR A PERIOD OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z... * SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET. * STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z... ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE SOUTHWEST OF FEP TO CWI AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH SUNSET AS IT MOVES EAST POSSIBLY IMPACTING RFD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS SUNSET APPROACHES WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING COMPLETELY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CMS PREVIOUS 18Z DISCUSSION... FOLLOWING THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MAIN TERMINALS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AND THUS WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST. OVERALL...EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY...AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A BKN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AGL MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. SO CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. KJB //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z... * LOW FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IMPACTING ORD/MDW THROUGH SUNSET. * HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z... TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE. WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR. SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL. JEE && .MARINE... 155 PM CDT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5 INCHES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MOVED ACROSS THE LAKE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING 30.0 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE LAKE. THE ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE TO IMPACT THE LAKE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...UP TO 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND THERE COULD BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AS WELL. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 343 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 342 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2014 Main concerns this forecast package will include pcpn chances tonight, potential for large damaging wind storm late Tue night through Wed morning, and then temps through the short term period. Models look similar with the overall pattern but have begun to differ on some of the sfc features and details, especially with the Tue night through Wed time period...when the threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall is present. All models agree that a severe weather event is possible, but differ on location and timing. Canadian is fastest, but agree with GFS/ECMWF on location. NAM is furthest north and tracks the sfc low across northern IL. The GFS is the slowest and furthest south with the track of the low, but agrees with the ECMWF on the location of the heaviest rainfall. GFS and Canadian also have the most qpf, with is probably overdone. So, will be leaning away from the furthest north NAM and try to take a blend of the other three. Based on HPC qpf forecast and SPC Day 2 outlook, looks like a blend of the GFS and ECMWF is the best way to go...so will follow suit. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday Showers and thunderstorms will continue in the east and southeast this evening, but once this goes by, dry conditions are expected the remainder of the night and through tomorrow. All the models develop pcpn to the west with some of them putting some of the pcpn in west central IL. Looks like this develops on the tail end of the front and convergence will be weak by then. So, looks like something developing on the low level jet overnight; however this is weak. Models do not carry this into the morning hours either. Since most of the models, including some of the hires mesoscale models do now have anything during this time period, will be keeping it dry through the overnight hours. Conditions will remained dry tomorrow as high press ridge moves over the area. At the same time, the next system will be developing out west in western NE/western KS. A warm front will extend east from this low into northern MO and down into the southern half of IL. With airmass very moist and unstable south of this front and a strong low level jet overnight, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in parts of NE tomorrow night. Further development will occur along the front in northern MO and parts of southern IA. During the night hours, these storms are expected to develop into a large complex of strong to severe storms...an MCS. This complex is then expected to move east/southeast overnight into western and northwestern IL. Initial convection will likely be supercells with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes...but out where the storms first develop. As the storms merge together, the convection will likely become more linear in nature and could become a bowecho or even a derecho. This should move across the area during the very late hours of Tue night into the early morning hours of Wed. As this complex of storms moves into the cwa, damaging winds will become the primary severe weather threat. Like SPC`s Day 2 outlook with a moderate risk out west and into western IL. In addition to the severe threat, this complex of storms will likely produce heavy rainfall across the area. Rainfall amounts of over 2 inches will be possible tomorrow night in western parts of central IL. As the system moves east-southeast there should be some diminish on the strength of the system so rainfall amounts will likely be lower in the east and southeast. Pcpn will likely linger in the southeast Wed night, and with some uncertainty on the whole evolution of the tail end of the system back over our cwa, as the whole system moves east, will keep chc pops over the rest of the area through Wed night. Then dry weather is expected for Thursday as high press moves into the area for a couple of days. Temps will be warm one more day as the cwa will be in a warmer sector again. Then once the MCS rolls through the area tomorrow night, temps will cool for Wed and Thur. LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday High press will dominate the area through Friday night, before the next weather system moves into the area for Sat afternoon through Sunday. Models differ on timing of the pcpn over the week, and the location of the main sfc features, so an AllBlend forecast looks reasonable for now. After the pcpn over the weekend, dry weather is forecast again for Sun night and Monday. High temps through the extended period will be in the 70s with lows in the upper 50s and 60s. Auten && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2014 Weak cold front has pushed into west-central Illinois early this afternoon, with scattered convection now beginning to develop ahead of the boundary east of the I-55 corridor. All models have a good handle on the current situation, with storms becoming more numerous across east-central Illinois over the next couple of hours. Based on latest radar trends and HRRR run, will only mention thunder at KDEC and KCMI. Will carry VCTS at KDEC between 18 and 20z and tempo thunder at KCMI between 18 and 21z. After that, the convection will push east of the TAF sites. Behind the developing convection, skies have partially cleared at KPIA and will gradually clear further east at the remaining sites later this afternoon. Despite the NAM model trying to re-develop widely scattered storms and lower clouds along the lingering front later this evening, have decided to follow the drier model guidance for tonight. Will therefore only carry scattered mid-clouds through the night with light W/SW winds. Winds will become W/NW by Tuesday morning under a mostly clear sky. Barnes && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
154 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... 331 AM CDT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL- ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED STORMS. CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC. ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD. MTF && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. * WINDS LIKELY REMAINING GUSTY UP AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KJB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... FOLLOWING THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MAIN TERMINALS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AND THUS WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST. OVERALL...EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY...AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A BKN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AGL MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. SO CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. KJB //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * VERY LOW FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. * HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. KJB //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z... TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE. WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR. SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL. JEE && .MARINE... 155 PM CDT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5 INCHES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MOVED ACROSS THE LAKE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING 30.0 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE LAKE. THE ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE TO IMPACT THE LAKE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...UP TO 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND THERE COULD BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AS WELL. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1226 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... 331 AM CDT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL- ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED STORMS. CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC. ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD. MTF && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. * WINDS LIKELY REMAINING GUSTY UP AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KJB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... FOLLOWING THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MAIN TERMINALS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AND THUS WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST. OVERALL...EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY...AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A BKN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AGL MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. SO CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. KJB //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * VERY LOW FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. * HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. KJB //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z... TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE. WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR. SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL. JEE && .MARINE... 245 PM CDT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25 KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SEVERAL QUICKLY MOVING SHORT WAVES PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH SYSTEM PASSES...RESULTING IN A HUMID AND WET PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE REACHED. GIVEN OUR TIMING PROBLEMS...WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL AFTER 00Z...STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE WEST AS DRYER AIR MAY ARRIVE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. AS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY AND GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL TREND LOWS COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 GFS AND NAM SUGGEST DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND INDIANA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS SHIRT WAVE TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 80. SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION...THUS JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU WILL BE EXPECTED. WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGH TEMPS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM BLOW OFF CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE BEGIN TO REACH CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY...AND A PLEASANT EVENING SHOULD BE HAD...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MARK A RETURN AFTER 06Z WED. THUS WILL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIP FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO REACH THE WABASH AROUND 12Z. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PURISTS ALOFT AND GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA. NAM IS A BIT MORE SMOOTH WITH IT/S SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE NAM IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE POORLY ORGANIZED PATTERNS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH. NONETHELESS...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AIDING LIFT AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...THE 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 9 G/KG. UNSURE ON SEVERE THREAT ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNLESS HEATING OCCURS. MORE HEATING WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SVR. WE WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE FOR NOW. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AT LEAST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. FURTHERMORE WILL TREND TEMPS TOWARD A BLEND ON HIGHS. PRECIP ONCE AGAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE DYNAMICS WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE DEPART...CERTAINLY THIS REMAINS QUITE DE PENDANT UPON TIMING AND ARRIVAL...WHICH APPEAR A BIT IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL TREND HIGHS POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...AND LOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO TIME OF ARRIVAL CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLEND ON LOW TEMPS. GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA AND THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNREACHABLE AND WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MEXMOS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN DRY AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. NO REAL IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE SO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH HANDLED GUIDANCE WELL. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A TAD FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. ADDITIONALLY...ALL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROJECTED TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIALLY DECENT RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S...FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030000Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 030200Z. UNTIL THEN...THREAT OF CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE KIND/KBMG VICINITY...WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS IN AND NEAR THE HEAVER CELLS. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS 015-040 SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE WAVE PASSES. MODEL DATA HINT AT SOME LOW CLOUD AROUND 010 DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT THE SIGNALS AREN/T AS STRONG AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE LOWER CEILINGS IS LOW. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG FROM DEVELOPING. SURFACE WINDS 200-220 DEGREES 10-14 KTS THIS EVENING WILL VEER A BIT MORE TOWARDS 220-230 LATER TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 7-10 KTS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM....LEE AVIATION...JAS VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
436 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SEVERAL QUICKLY MOVING SHORT WAVES PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH SYSTEM PASSES...RESULTING IN A HUMID AND WET PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE REACHED. GIVEN OUR TIMING PROBLEMS...WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL AFTER 00Z...STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE WEST AS DRYER AIR MAY ARRIVE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. AS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY AND GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL TREND LOWS COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 GFS AND NAM SUGGEST DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND INDIANA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS SHIRT WAVE TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 80. SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION...THUS JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU WILL BE EXPECTED. WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGH TEMPS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM BLOW OFF CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE BEGIN TO REACH CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY...AND A PLEASANT EVENING SHOULD BE HAD...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MARK A RETURN AFTER 06Z WED. THUS WILL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIP FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO REACH THE WABASH AROUND 12Z. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PURISTS ALOFT AND GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA. NAM IS A BIT MORE SMOOTH WITH IT/S SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE NAM IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE POORLY ORGANIZED PATTERNS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH. NONETHELESS...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AIDING LIFT AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...THE 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 9 G/KG. UNSURE ON SEVERE THREAT ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNLESS HEATING OCCURS. MORE HEATING WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SVR. WE WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE FOR NOW. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AT LEAST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. FURTHERMORE WILL TREND TEMPS TOWARD A BLEND ON HIGHS. PRECIP ONCE AGAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE DYNAMICS WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE DEPART...CERTAINLY THIS REMAINS QUITE DE PENDANT UPON TIMING AND ARRIVAL...WHICH APPEAR A BIT IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL TREND HIGHS POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...AND LOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO TIME OF ARRIVAL CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLEND ON LOW TEMPS. GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA AND THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNREACHABLE AND WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MEXMOS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN DRY AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. NO REAL IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE SO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH HANDLED GUIDANCE WELL. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A TAD FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. ADDITIONALLY...ALL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROJECTED TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIALLY DECENT RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S...FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 022100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN INDIANA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER WAVE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF KIND AROUND 030100Z. UNTIL THEN...THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF KIND WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS IN AND NEAR THE HEAVER CELLS. WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON THE WIND SPEEDS ON THE UPDATE BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WITH CEILINGS FINALLY IMPROVING AS OF 17Z OBSERVATIONS...HAVE WENT AHEAD AND PULLED MVFR MENTION FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KLAF AND KIND. HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR MOSAIC JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. NO LIGHTNING AS OF YET SO CONTINUED VCSH MENTION UNTIL INTRODUCING VCTS BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...EARLIER AT WESTERN TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 KTS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO IMPROVE VF FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION BUT LOOK TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THEY DROP SLIGHTLY BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM....LEE AVIATION...LEE/JAS VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
253 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SEVERAL QUICKLY MOVING SHORT WAVES PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH SYSTEM PASSES...RESULTING IN A HUMID AND WET PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE REACHED. GIVEN OUR TIMING PROBLEMS...WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL AFTER 00Z...STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE WEST AS DRYER AIR MAY ARRIVE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. AS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY AND GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL TREND LOWS COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 GFS AND NAM SUGGEST DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND INDIANA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS SHIRT WAVE TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 80. SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION...THUS JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU WILL BE EXPECTED. WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGH TEMPS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM BLOW OFF CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE BEGIN TO REACH CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY...AND A PLEASANT EVENING SHOULD BE HAD...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MARK A RETURN AFTER 06Z WED. THUS WILL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIP FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO REACH THE WABASH AROUND 12Z. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PURISTS ALOFT AND GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA. NAM IS A BIT MORE SMOOTH WITH IT/S SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE NAM IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE POORLY ORGANIZED PATTERNS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH. NONETHELESS...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AIDING LIFT AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...THE 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 9 G/KG. UNSURE ON SEVERE THREAT ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNLESS HEATING OCCURS. MORE HEATING WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SVR. WE WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE FOR NOW. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AT LEAST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. FURTHERMORE WILL TREND TEMPS TOWARD A BLEND ON HIGHS. PRECIP ONCE AGAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE DYNAMICS WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE DEPART...CERTAINLY THIS REMAINS QUITE DE PENDANT UPON TIMING AND ARRIVAL...WHICH APPEAR A BIT IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL TREND HIGHS POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...AND LOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO TIME OF ARRIVAL CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLEND ON LOW TEMPS. GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA AND THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNREACHABLE AND WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MEXMOS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN DRY AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. NO REAL IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE SO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH HANDLED GUIDANCE WELL. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A TAD FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. ADDITIONALLY...ALL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROJECTED TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIALLY DECENT RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S...FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 WITH CEILINGS FINALLY IMPROVING AS OF 17Z OBSERVATIONS...HAVE WENT AHEAD AND PULLED MVFR MENTION FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KLAF AND KIND. HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR MOSAIC JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. NO LIGHTNING AS OF YET SO CONTINUED VCSH MENTION UNTIL INTRODUCING VCTS BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...EARLIER AT WESTERN TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 KTS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO IMPROVE VF FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION BUT LOOK TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THEY DROP SLIGHTLY BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM....LEE AVIATION...LEE VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE... THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SEVERAL QUICKLY MOVING SHORT WAVES PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH SYSTEM PASSES...RESULTING IN A HUMID AND WET PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE REACHED. GIVEN OUR TIMING PROBLEMS...WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL AFTER 00Z...STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE WEST AS DRYER AIR MAY ARRIVE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. AS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY AND GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL TREND LOWS COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 GFS AND NAM SUGGEST DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND INDIANA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS SHIRT WAVE TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER TEH CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 80. SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION...THUS JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU WILL BE EXPECTED. WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGH TEMPS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM BLOW OFF CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE BEGIN TO REACH CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY...AND A PLEASANT EVENING SHOULD BE HAD...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MARK A RETURN AFTER 06Z WED. THUS WILL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIP FROM CONVCETION UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO REACH THE WABASH AROUND 12Z. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERISTS ALOFT AND GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA. NAM IS A BIT MORE SMOOTH WITH IT/S SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE NAM IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE POORLY ORGANIZED PATTERNS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH. NONETHELESS...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AIDING LIFT AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...THE 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLUIDE ON WEDENSDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 9 G/KG. UNSURE ON SEVERE THREAT ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILTY PATRICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNLESS HEATING OCCURS. MORE HEATING WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SVR. WE WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE FOR NOW. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AT LEAST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. FURTHERMORE WILL TREND TEMPS TOWARD A BLEND ON HIGHS. PRECIP ONCE AGAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE DYNAMICS WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE DEPART...CERTAINLY THIS REMAINS QUITE DEPENDANT UPON TIMING AND ARRIVAL...WHICH APPEAR A BIT IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL TREND HIGHS POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...AND LOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO TIME OF ARRIVAL CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL TREND TOWARD CLEAING SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLEND ON LOW TEMPS. GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA AND THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNREACHABLE AND WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MEXMOS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...THEY ARE SOMEWHAT LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THIS ALLOWS FOR THE INSERTION OF A 36 HOUR DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE IN CONTROL. THIS REQUIRED SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM ALLBLEND. ON TEMPS...OVERALL PATTERN IS QUASIZONAL TO WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC...BECOMING MORE CYCLONIC VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND THESE WERE INITIALIZED WELL. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 WITH CEILINGS FINALLY IMPROVING AS OF 17Z OBSERVATIONS...HAVE WENT AHEAD AND PULLED MVFR MENTION FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KLAF AND KIND. HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR MOSAIC JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. NO LIGHTNING AS OF YET SO CONTINUED VCSH MENTION UNTIL INTRODUCING VCTS BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...EARLIER AT WESTERN TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 KTS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO IMPROVE VF FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION BUT LOOK TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THEY DROP SLIGHTLY BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM...NIELD AVIATION...LEE/SMF VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
410 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM... WHILE THE LOCAL AREA IS STILL WAITING ON SOME HELP FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DRY THINGS OUT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP EXISTS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THE HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH INITIALIZED REFLECTIVITY LOCATION AND MOVEMENT. IT SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST PART BY 03Z. BASED ON YESTERDAY...THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN A COUPLE HOURS SOONER. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND THUS HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF CHANCE POPS THERE. .LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE NM/TX/MEXICO BORDER WILL BEGIN EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WILL STILL BE CAUGHT ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...DAYTIME HEATING WILL FIRE OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT RAIN COVERAGE. THINKING AROUND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL BE BACK IN LINE WITH MORE TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR 2. TROPICS REMAIN QUIET AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXISTS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THERE IS LITTLE APPRECIABLE MODEL CONTINUITY BETWEEN THEMSELVES AND RUN TO RUN ON DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA OR SOUTHERN GULF IN THE NEXT WEEK. MEFFER && .AVIATION...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOW CIGS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT FOG WHERE MODERATE RAIN FELL TODAY COULD DEVELOP AFTER 6Z. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OMS ELATE THIS EVNG BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHRA OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TOMORROW LETS DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN. /CAB/ && .MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS/WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH THE ONLY CHANGE REALLY JUST DIRECTION BECOMING MORE SSE VS MORE EASTERLY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ISOLATED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. MEFFER && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 70 88 70 91 / 20 40 10 10 BTR 71 89 73 91 / 20 40 10 10 ASD 70 86 71 89 / 20 50 20 10 MSY 75 86 75 88 / 20 50 20 10 GPT 76 84 76 86 / 30 40 20 10 PQL 70 85 69 87 / 30 40 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC... A TROUGH EXTENDED THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES OVER NE MN. A FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NRN MN. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING QUICKLY TO THE ENE INTO THE FAR ERN CWA LEAVING SCT/ISOLD SHRA OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD TSRA OVER NW WI. TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE SCT SHRA INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FCST MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST AFT 06Z. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TUESDAY...SCT SHRA IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING AND STRONG DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SHRTWV. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 OTHER THAN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FAR E ON NW FLOW FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE EXITING 500MB LOW JUST W OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT. A SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND DIVE ACROSS WI THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR S. IF THE STRONGER 12Z NAM PANS OUT IT COULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN CLIPPING MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW...AS THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE MOISTURE ABLE TO ROUND THE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...AVERAGING ABOUT 6HRS WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AT 18Z THURSDAY OFF THE GFS AND NAM...WHILE ACROSS MUCH WEAKER AND OVER CENTRAL MN OFF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT GOOD MIXING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 750MB...IN FACT ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 600MB. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WILL BE THE RULE...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT RH VALUES TO SLOWLY FALL EACH AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTERIOR W AND FAR E. PW VALUES OFF THE GFS FALL TO AROUND 0.35-0.4IN OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING /NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. AS NOTED...FIRE CONCERNS WILL INCREASE BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP IT FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND. THE NEXT 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS ALBERTA AND AND SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOOK FOR SW FLOW TO RETURN ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE N PLAINS. THE SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH ND. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS MN THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL INTO CANADA...CLOSER TO THE WRAPPED UP 500MB LOW. SO WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...THE BEST CHANCE OFF THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS UPPER MI. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE A MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND S PLAINS AT 18Z SATURDAY TRACKING NE UP THE SFC TROUGH...BY 12Z SUNDAY THE SFC LOW COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE S MN/WI BORDER TO IA...TO ILLINOIS. THAT IS ENOUGH SPREAD TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND SATURDAY...OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR NEXT MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT KCMX/KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR/MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON WITH GREATER MIXING WITH INCREASING WRLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIKEWISE...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR VFR AT KIWD BEHIND THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON TUE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR ANY TSRA OVER MAINLY THE WRN LAKES. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO THU AS A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162- 263>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
151 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION/HYDRO .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS MORNING AS SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS AND SOLID TEMPERATURE ADVECTION HAVE WARMED READINGS TO AROUND 80. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH LI/S AROUND -4C. WIND FIELDS ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE WITH THE 850MB LLJ PROGD TO BE IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL JET IS ON THE ORDER OF 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KNOTS AT 21Z. A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO PLOW EAST AS WELL MARCHING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN AT 15Z. SO...THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST THE SCATTERED CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. GIVEN A UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE EXPECTING STRONG WINDS TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. OF EQUAL CONCERN THOUGH WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS AS PWAT VALUES ARE UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS WILL HAVE THE THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL AS WELL. IN TERMS OF MORPHOLOGY THERE WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL LAKE SHADOW IN THE DIVERGENT WINDS OFF THE LAKE AT LEAST INITIALLY. LIFT VIA THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH A DECENT SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH WILL BE INLAND FROM NEAR HIGHWAY 131 AND POINTS EAST. HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD DISCRETE CELLS FIRING INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A LINE OF STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD BE SWEEPING EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 7-9PM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST INTO OUR REGION AND STRONG SSW WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT A WARM A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO LOWER MI. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING/MAX INSTABILITY WHEN SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ML CAPE VALUES WILL REACH 500-1000 J/KG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION WOULD BE NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131 AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND FORCING WILL COME FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WX THREAT IS MITIGATED BY SEVERAL FACTORS THOUGH INCLUDING RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY/FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TODAY AND WEAK BULK SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. THE NEXT FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO IMPACT OUR FCST AREA WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SPREAD IS STILL NOTED AMONG THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE WITH 00Z NAM SHOWING AN MCS COULD AFFECT OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH IT/S FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION. HOWEVER MOST SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL EITHER CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA SOUTH OF I-96 OR MISS OUR AREA ALTOGETHER AND AFFECT IN/OH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS POTENTIAL FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 ANOTHER STRETCH OF PLEASANT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES SINKING FARTHER SOUTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SFC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN MODERATE TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE WARM AIR TRIES TO RETURN NORTH AHEAD OF A WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE/AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS ON IFR VISIBILITIES IN +TSRA COMES WITH THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN. OB SITES IN SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL DROPPED DOWN TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR BRIEFLY AS THE LINE CAME THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE IN THE TSRA ACTIVITY / PERHAPS ENHANCED A BIT WITH SOME DOWNBURSTS AT OR ABOVE 40 KTS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER THE MAIN LINE COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...HOWEVER. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 OPTED TO EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL ZONES GIVEN THE WINDS IN PLACE AT THE PRESENT TIME. WAVES HAVE BUILT TO AROUND 5 FEET AT THE LUDINGTON BUOY IN THE LONGEST FETCH IN OUR MARINE ZONES. WAVES ARE MORE IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE FROM GRAND HAVEN TO THE SOUTH. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR IS BEING ADVECTED OUT OF THE WATERS OF THE BIG LAKE. BEACH HAZARDS ARE NOT A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN GIVEN HOW COLD THE WATER IS STILL. HIGHEST WAVES ARE UP NORTH AND THE WATER TEMP AT LUDINGTON STATE PARK THIS MORNING WAS 52 DEGREES. SO...NOT EXPECTING A HIGH POPULATION OF FOLKS VENTURING INTO THE WATER JUST YET. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IN A HIGH PWAT / UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL ENSURE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT ALL PLACES WILL BENEFIT FROM SOAKING RAINS...LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBS MAY BE PRONE TO RISES...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. AFTER THIS EVENING...THE THREAT ENDS. NO FLOODING ON MAIN STEM RIVERS IS OCCURRING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPECTED MCS THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS MAY END UP PROPAGATING JUST SOUTH OF MOST OF OUR CWA...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY YET AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...DUKE SYNOPSIS...LAURENS SHORT TERM...LAURENS LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...HOVING HYDROLOGY...HOVING MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 CONCERNS FOCUS ON AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN THE ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE WRN CWA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS GENERALLY RESULTED IN LITTLE TO NO PCPN OVER UPPER MI FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS. YESTERDAYS RAIN SHOWERS AND THE CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS HOWEVER RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS FOG/STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INLAND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE PORTION OF UPPER MI ALONG LAKE MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. EXPECT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL DIURNAL MIXING HELPS SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVELS BY LATE MORNING. WITH SPOTTER REPORTS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE KEWEENAW HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES THROUGH 11 AM. THE LATEST HRRR RUN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER WI. ONE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SCNTRL WI INTO NE WI LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ALONG THETA-E RDG AXIS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHILE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WRN WI IS TIED TO MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH MN AND NE IA AND LIFT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BAND OVER SCNTRL ERN WI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALLY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SE UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...THE RAIN BAND OVER WRN AND NCNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SUPPORTING IT ROTATES NE FROM MN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG AND PWATS TO NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 35-40 KT MAY ALLOW SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO ERN COUNTIES MAINLY AFT 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TIED WITH THE MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOC SECONDARY COLD FRONT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND NEG SHOWALTER INDICES COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TSRA INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 OTHER THAN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FAR E ON NW FLOW FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE EXITING 500MB LOW JUST W OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT. A SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND DIVE ACROSS WI THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR S. IF THE STRONGER 12Z NAM PANS OUT IT COULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN CLIPPING MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW...AS THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE MOISTURE ABLE TO ROUND THE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...AVERAGING ABOUT 6HRS WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AT 18Z THURSDAY OFF THE GFS AND NAM...WHILE ACROSS MUCH WEAKER AND OVER CENTRAL MN OFF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT GOOD MIXING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 750MB...IN FACT ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 600MB. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WILL BE THE RULE...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT RH VALUES TO SLOWLY FALL EACH AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTERIOR W AND FAR E. PW VALUES OFF THE GFS FALL TO AROUND 0.35-0.4IN OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING /NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. AS NOTED...FIRE CONCERNS WILL INCREASE BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP IT FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND. THE NEXT 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS ALBERTA AND AND SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOOK FOR SW FLOW TO RETURN ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE N PLAINS. THE SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH ND. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS MN THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL INTO CANADA...CLOSER TO THE WRAPPED UP 500MB LOW. SO WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...THE BEST CHANCE OFF THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS UPPER MI. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE A MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND S PLAINS AT 18Z SATURDAY TRACKING NE UP THE SFC TROUGH...BY 12Z SUNDAY THE SFC LOW COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE S MN/WI BORDER TO IA...TO ILLINOIS. THAT IS ENOUGH SPREAD TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND SATURDAY...OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR NEXT MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT KCMX/KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR/MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON WITH GREATER MIXING WITH INCREASING WRLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIKEWISE...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR VFR AT KIWD BEHIND THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON TUE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 OTHER THAN SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 30KTS THROUGH THE FCST PD. LIGHTER WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE SO HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN ZONE OF LAKE. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 CONCERNS FOCUS ON AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN THE ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE WRN CWA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS GENERALLY RESULTED IN LITTLE TO NO PCPN OVER UPPER MI FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS. YESTERDAYS RAIN SHOWERS AND THE CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS HOWEVER RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS FOG/STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INLAND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE PORTION OF UPPER MI ALONG LAKE MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. EXPECT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL DIURNAL MIXING HELPS SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVELS BY LATE MORNING. WITH SPOTTER REPORTS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE KEWEENAW HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES THROUGH 11 AM. THE LATEST HRRR RUN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER WI. ONE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SCNTRL WI INTO NE WI LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ALONG THETA-E RDG AXIS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHILE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WRN WI IS TIED TO MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH MN AND NE IA AND LIFT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BAND OVER SCNTRL ERN WI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALLY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SE UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...THE RAIN BAND OVER WRN AND NCNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SUPPORTING IT ROTATES NE FROM MN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG AND PWATS TO NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 35-40 KT MAY ALLOW SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO ERN COUNTIES MAINLY AFT 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TIED WITH THE MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOC SECONDARY COLD FRONT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND NEG SHOWALTER INDICES COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TSRA INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 OTHER THAN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FAR E ON NW FLOW FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE EXITING 500MB LOW JUST W OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT. A SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND DIVE ACROSS WI THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR S. IF THE STRONGER 12Z NAM PANS OUT IT COULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN CLIPPING MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW...AS THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE MOISTURE ABLE TO ROUND THE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...AVERAGING ABOUT 6HRS WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AT 18Z THURSDAY OFF THE GFS AND NAM...WHILE ACROSS MUCH WEAKER AND OVER CENTRAL MN OFF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT GOOD MIXING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 750MB...IN FACT ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 600MB. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WILL BE THE RULE...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT RH VALUES TO SLOWLY FALL EACH AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTERIOR W AND FAR E. PW VALUES OFF THE GFS FALL TO AROUND 0.35-0.4IN OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING /NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. AS NOTED...FIRE CONCERNS WILL INCREASE BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP IT FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND. THE NEXT 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS ALBERTA AND AND SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOOK FOR SW FLOW TO RETURN ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE N PLAINS. THE SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH ND. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS MN THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL INTO CANADA...CLOSER TO THE WRAPPED UP 500MB LOW. SO WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...THE BEST CHANCE OFF THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS UPPER MI. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE A MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND S PLAINS AT 18Z SATURDAY TRACKING NE UP THE SFC TROUGH...BY 12Z SUNDAY THE SFC LOW COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE S MN/WI BORDER TO IA...TO ILLINOIS. THAT IS ENOUGH SPREAD TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND SATURDAY...OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR NEXT MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT KCMX AND KSAW WILL IMPROVE TO IFR OR MVFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING AND THE ONSET OF STEADIER SHRA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FM MN. CONDITIONS AT KIWD WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THIS MORNING UNDER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR VFR BEHIND THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 OTHER THAN SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 30KTS THROUGH THE FCST PD. LIGHTER WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE SO HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN ZONE OF LAKE. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
305 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP HAEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRON LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SW FLOW HAS WRMD THE AREA NICELY THIS AFTN AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOCH 90F ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN NEAR SYR. SOME CONV HAS DVLPD OVER XTRM WRN NY ALONG THE FRICTIONAL CONV BNDRY SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND ARE MVG NE ATTM. OTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL ARM WEAKEN THE CONV AS IT MVES EAST AND HAS LTL IN THE WAY OF SHWRS OVRNGT. NAM HOLDS CONV TOGETHER BETTER AND HAS SOME WEAKENING CONV THRU MUCH OF THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA...LOW RESOLUTION GFS KIND SMEARS THE DEPICTION OF THE CONV WHILE THE EURO GNRLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY. WITH THE CONV ALREADY FIRING...DESPITE THE MODLE CONSENSUS HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...PRIMARILY OF THE NRN ZONES TNGT IN CASE SOME OF THE CONV HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DRIFTS EAST AS THE NAM SHOWS. OTRW...A QUIET NGT WITH MODERATE TEMPS AND WINDS AHD OF THE APRCHG FNTS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS USUAL...NOT A CLR CUT FNTL PASSAGE WITH THE MODELS CONCENTRATING MUCH OF THE CONV TMRW ALONG A PRE FNTL TROF PASSING THRU THE AREA BEFORE 18Z. NAM IS ONCE AGAIN AN OUTLIER WITH A SECOND LINE OF CONV DVLPG ALONG THE COLD FNT LTR IN THE DAY AND IN THE EARLY EVE. NAM FCSTD SNDGS ARE INDEED QUITE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES BETTER THAN 1500 J/KG. GFS AND EURO DO ALSO SHOW SOME AFNT CONV AS THE UPR WV AND SFC FNT APRCHS...SO HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS WHERE THERE/S THE BEST CHANCE PCPN EARLY IN THE DAY WITH THE TROF...BUT WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS THRU THE AFTN AND INTO PART OF THE EVE TO CVR THE POSSIBILTY OF A SECOND ROUND OF CONV. NEXT WX SYSTEM ARRIVES THUR AND WHILE THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EURO AND GFS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THE NAM OFFERS A MUCH DFRNT SOLN. EURO/GFS SOLN KEEP AND OPEN WV ACROSS THE LAKES AND PUSH A WEAKER CLSD SFC LOW ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WED... CONCENTRATING SHWRS AND TSTMS ALONG THE OLD SFC OVER PA. NAM CLOSES OFF THE UPR LOW AND WRAPS UP A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE SRN LAKES BRINGING THE CONV FURTHER NORTH. WILL LEAN TWRD THE LESS DRAMATIC GFS/EURO AND KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA...HIER IN THE SOUTH...FOR THE END OF THE PD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A RETURN TO DRY AND MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EXPECT WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FOR ALL INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BEAUTY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN WARMER VALUES ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. BEYOND THIS...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW...HAVE ADVERTISED CHC POPS BEGINNING MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE STAGES OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT COOLER YET SEASONABLE TEMPS /LOW TO MID 70S/ THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HRS OF THE FCST CYCLE AS UPPER RIDGING RETREATS TO THE EAST. FCST MODELS DO DEVELOP CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINALS IS MUCH TO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE WITH CURRENT UPDATE. FOR NOW...ENOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIST ALOFT OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT MUCH VALLEY FOG FORMATION. BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED RAIN/STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER 14Z AS PRECIP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE PREDOMINATE RA WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT ALL SITES FOR THUNDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS WILL BE CAPABLY OF SHORT DURATION MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 8-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. OUTLOOK... THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA. FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE PREDAWN HRS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...CMG AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
548 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 DID EXPAND THE FOG MENTION TO ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ITS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT SHOULD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BECOME NECESSARY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS SKIES CLEAR...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST TONIGHT. THUS...WIDESPREAD SURFACE SATURATION IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 21 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THE FOG THREAT AT MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF RECENT RAINFALL AND GREEN-UP. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 UPPER LOW IDENTIFIED ON 18Z/NAM MODEL OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW IN MINNESOTA WILL ALSO EXIT THE REGION LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL SHRINK SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST WILL END BY SUNSET. AS CLOUDS DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG INCREASES CENTRAL AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALREADY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY BRUSHING THE SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES IT WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A BREAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SET UP WARMING AND INSTABILITY AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OFF AND ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT BRING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED IMPULSES REACHES NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN COOLING TO THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 MVFR/VFR STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A COOL...MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE HIGH. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
341 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 UPPER LOW NEAR BEMIDJI AT MID AFTERNOON WITH SFC LOW NEAR HIBBING MN. WRAPAROUND RAIN AREA OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A SLOW END OF THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FCST TO SEE SHOWERS TIL LATE TONIGHT. QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF CLEARING AND TEMPS AND IF ANY FOG FORMS. RAP MODEL AVIATION FCSTS DO INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS PSBL IN THE MINOT-DEVILS LAKE-JAMESTOWN REGION LATE TONIGHT SO COORD WITH WFO BIS AND INSERTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN FAR WRN FCST AREA. DO EXPECT CLEARING TO PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT REACHING THE RRV TOWARD 06Z AND THEN FAR EAST AROUND 12Z. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER WITH SUNSHINE AND MIDDAY/AFTN CUMULUS CLOUDS. WARMER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF RAIN TO BYPASS OUR IMMEDIATE FCST AREA TO OUR SOUTH TUES AFTN-NIGHT WITH RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SD/FAR SRN MN/IOWA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WRN CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF A FRONT ENTERING ERN ND WED AFTN AND THEN SPREADING EAST WED NIGHT. BRIEF BREAK PSBL BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AFTN. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AND COOL. ALL MODELS START WITH A 500MB LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND ZONAL FLOW TO ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER LOTS OF DIFFERENCE AFTER THIS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER WAVE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HARD TO FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR TIME FRAME AND GO DRY AS MODELS HAVE MARKED DIFFERENCES WITH THEIR PCPN FIELDS. THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS MIXED IN BUT WILL STICK WITH INHERITED BROAD PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT. WITH THE WET AND CLOUDY PATTERN TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE AS WELL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AND HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PEG A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR THEM. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN BUT JUST A PERSISTENT STEADY LIGHT RAIN. ALSO SEEING GUSTY NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY MID TO LATE EVENING OR SO. WITH THE RECENT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS THINK THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE BUT IT COULD DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING. STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT CLEARING AND EXACTLY WHEN IT MAY OCCUR BUT WILL SCATTER THINGS OUT TUESDAY MORNING AS A BEST FIRST GUESS. WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH 18Z TUE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE DEFINITELY SHOWING AN UNSEASONABLE COOL AND SHOWERY DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST. TRENDED THE SHOWERS DOWN SLOWLY. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER LATE TONIGHT IN THE WET AREAS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 RADAR LOOPS AND LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A PERSISTENT SHOWER AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WITH H8 TEMPERATURE FIELD AS COOL AS IT IS...CURRENT THINKING IS THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER SO REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WENT A BIT COOLER SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 SHOWERS CONTINUE IN DEFORMATION ZONE FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND SLOWLY EXITING LOW EXTENDS WEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA...SO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO START THE DAY. AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL EXTENDS SOUTH PAST GARRISON WITH EVEN A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO BISMARCK. LOOKING AHEAD TO TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR NOW EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THINK THAT BY THE TIME WE SEE A THREAT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE SHIFTED EVEN FARTHER EAST. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST REFLECTIVITY STILL SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EAST IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SOME MODERATE SHOWERS IN AND NORTH OF MINOT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SLOWLY SLIDING THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY FALL OFF AFTER 18 UTC FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS ALSO DIMINISHED TONIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF CHANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THUS HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES AT ISOLATED. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN HAS MOST LIKELY ALREADY FALLEN FROM THIS SYSTEM...NOT KNOWING THE FULL EFFECTS OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THE THREAT FOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND SMALL STREAMS IS STILL PRESENT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON CLOSEST TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE...AND HOLDS OFF ON CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STRONGER BUT THE EARLIER WAVE WILL HELP CLEAR OUT A LOT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS THE MOISTURE RECOVERY ON THURSDAY LOOKS MEAGER IN THE WEST AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD. WE REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH AND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OUR SOUTH. COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT POSSIBLE CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS KEPT SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOW DEWPOINTS...THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 AT 17Z SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH A MOIST CIRCULATION AROUND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR THIS EVENING. HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE WIDESPREAD MVFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY TONIGHT. INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AFTER 08Z KMOT-KBIS-KJMS BUT KEPT VSBYS 3SM OR ABOVE. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WAA SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
107 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .UPDATE... SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING AND LOWERED POPS AND TEMPS. A LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS MOVING DOWN OUT OF ND THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP ANY DAYTIME HEATING IN CHECK THIS MORNING. THEN WITH CAA THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST WILL JUST NOT BE ABLE TO CATCH UP. SO DROPPED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S. PRECIP ON THE OTHER HAND IS GETTING HUNG UP IN ND. THE HRRR DOES NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP ENTERING THE NORTHEAST UNTIL AROUND 18Z SO ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS PASSED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS AREA WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW. A FEW WIDELY SCT THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS AREA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH ALREADY BEGINS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST CWA ON TUESDAY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW AND SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 12 AND ESPECIALLY GOOD SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE OVER SOUTHERN SD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MLCAPE VALUES ARE VERY LOW WITH ALL THE INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...CLOSER TO THE SFC WARM FRONT. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SVR POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...KEEPING THE CWA IN A PRIME AREA FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. CANNOT REALLY RULE OUT ANY TIME PERIOD THAT WILL BE DRY...SO WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND POPS...WHICH KEEP SCHC/CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THURSDAY GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS A STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME SCATTERING OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THE EDGES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS FOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AND THE STRATUS DECK TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STATUS SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND SKIES NEVER CLEAR. IF THE FORECAST GOES AS PLANNED AND SKIES CLEAR...FOG IS ALSO A CONSIDERATION. HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT THESE DETAILS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE NEXT PLANNED FORECAST. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WISE SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...PARKIN AVIATION...SERR WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
246 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK SO FAR. CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST HAS ALSO KEPT CONVECTION FROM FORMING THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING FROM WEST TN/WEST KY...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING...WITH LOW POPS SPREADING EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE...BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO RETURN WELL INTO THE 80S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MID STATE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES NEGLIGIBLE AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S PLATEAU AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS A 60 KT 500 MB JET PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ALL SUGGEST THIS WILL DRIVE AN MCS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE KY BORDER NORTHWARD...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN OUR AREA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MID STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE CWA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES BOTH INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 69 87 70 91 / 30 30 20 10 CLARKSVILLE 68 86 68 90 / 50 30 20 10 CROSSVILLE 63 82 63 85 / 20 30 20 10 COLUMBIA 69 86 70 91 / 30 30 20 10 LAWRENCEBURG 68 86 68 90 / 30 40 20 10 WAVERLY 69 86 68 91 / 50 30 20 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN MN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH RIDGING IN-BETWEEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN TROUGHING AND A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN MN UPPER LOW. THIS DRY SLOT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING HELPED TO CLEAR SKIES OUT FROM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S / LOW 80S HAS RESULTED IN 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND NO CIN. THIS INSTABILITY AND LACK OF CAPPING HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF IN PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TO THE NORTHWEST...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXIST OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN. 925MB TEMPS ARE SIGNIFICANT COLDER TOO UNDER THESE CLOUDS...NOTED BY 10C TEMP AT BIS AT 12Z COMPARED TO 16-20C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT NEAR ALEXANDRIA MN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY ON ITS WEST SIDE LOOKS TO BECOME CENTERED OVER WI. FIRST...ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME STRONGER CELLS TIL ABOUT 5-6 PM WITH 0-6KM SHEAR RUNNING AROUND 30 KT AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT 20-25KT. THEN AS THAT TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRATUS AND SHOWERS. COLD FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z. REGARDING THOSE SHOWERS...MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOUD DEPTHS WOULD SUPPORT THEM MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD PICK UP A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KT. DAYTIME HEATING PLUS SUBSIDENCE AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WILL HELP CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES THEN LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA DRY. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE WARMER AIR ADVECT BACK IN WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO MAKE A DECENT JUMP DURING THE DAY...FROM 10-12C AT 12Z TO AROUND 18C AT 00Z. PLENTY OF SUN FROM THE MID MORNING ON UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PROGGED TO COME CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING NUMEROUS SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SHEARING OUT AND PROVIDING DPVA FORCING TO THIS REGION. PLENTIFUL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION TOO. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE THE SAME AMOUNT OF SPREAD HANDLING THIS CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 02.12Z NAM AND 02.09Z SREF STILL SHOW A NORTHERN TRACK...BASICALLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 02.12Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE 02.12Z HIRES-ARW SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A BOWING MCS...AIDED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING HIGH CAPE OUT OF KANSAS...CORFIDI VECTORS AND IN PARTICULAR THE FORWARD PROPAGATING VECTORS NEED TO BE FOLLOWED. THESE WOULD SUGGEST THE MCS SHOULD TAKE THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE... LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MO AND INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST SEVERE PROBS ARE IN THE DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK. EVEN IF THIS SOUTHERN ROUTE OCCURS...IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN END OF THE MCS AND/OR SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTH OF I-90 FOR 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MCS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM HEAD DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH. 1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED...DOWN TO 0.5-0.7 INCHES OR 70-90 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALONG WITH THIS DRY AIR...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE AT THE SURFACE TO AID IN LIGHT WINDS. MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S IN SOME OF OUR TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS. AS SUCH...HAVE TRENDED FORECAST LOWS COLDER...BUT MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. 2. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 02.12Z NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. HOWEVER...THE 02.12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...PRODUCING MOSTLY SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOME...PRIMARILY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT HIT 70 ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AT OR BELOW 8C WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 WINDS/GUSTS WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUSTAINED NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SLACKENING IN THE GRADIENT LATER ON TUE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. AREAS OF MVFR/VFR CLOUDS ARE LOCATED WEST OF THE LOW...BUT MODEL TRENDS FAVOR MOVING THIS CLOUD SHIELD EAST...NORTH OF KRST/KLSE. THUS...ANTICIPATE SKC/SCT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF TUE. LATER TUE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DRIVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ACROSS IA. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/JET INTO AND ACROSS AN ACCOMPANYING WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF IOWA...LIKELY STRONG TO SEVERE AND CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...THE FAVORED SCENARIO WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90...HAVING JUST A GLANCING BLOW FOR KRST/KLSE. CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY STAY VFR FOR THE MOST PART. ITS A SCENARIO THAT BEARS CLOSE ATTENTION THOUGH...AS ANY JOG NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE HIGHER STORM THREAT NORTH WITH IT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TRIBUTARIES. THE KICKAPOO RIVER REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TRIBUTARY FLOODING WITH VIOLA HEADING TOWARDS FLOOD STAGE AND READSTOWN ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD BUT CRESTING. SOLDIERS GROVE AND GAYS MILLS DOWNSTREAM COULD GET CLOSE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND THEREFORE NEED TO BE WATCHED. SOME OF THE RUNOFF HAS HIT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH LEVELS NOW STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING NORTH OF LA CROSSE. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS WABASHA MAY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...THUS A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THERE. MEANWHILE...AT WINONA...CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS FAVORABLE TO HIT FLOOD...THEREFORE THE WATCH WAS CANCELLED THERE EARLIER THIS MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MNZ079. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM....AJ AVIATION.....RIECK HYDROLOGY....AJ
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS EXITED THE DOOR PENINSULA...BUT SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. DESPITE A LACK OF DESTABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SINCE TEMPS HAVE NOT RECOVERED MUCH FROM THE EARLIER RAINS. LOOKING EVEN FURTHER UPSTREAM...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND SHOWERS IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS. TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TIP OF JAMES BAY. RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...WILL END SHOWER CHANCES OVER NE WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME. BUT FARTHER WEST...THINK SCT TO WIDELY SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE IN THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEN MAY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BEFORE WRAP AROUND LOW STRATUS FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA DROPS INTO N-C WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE WITH THE STRATUS AS WELL. THE EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN MUGGY...THEN SHOULD SEE COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVE WITH THE STRATUS. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROMOTE THE LOW STRATUS SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME HELP FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEN SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE RETREATS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS. SEVERAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND SREF...APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... AND BRING PCPN TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH SHOW LESS FEEDBACK...AND FOCUS THE MCS ACTIVITY OVER IA/N IL...NORTH OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT CHC POPS GOING FOR C/EC WI LATE TUES NGT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STABILITY INDICES INDICATE LITTLE THREAT FOR THUNDER. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST GOING FROM WEDS NGT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST IS NOT AS HIGH AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE ECMWF GENERATES SOME LIGHT PCPN IN ASSOCIATION A S/W TROF MOVG THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO DEVELOPS SOME SCT CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WI ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL HANGING BACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME CONCERN FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE. AS A RESULT...LIMITED STORM COVERAGE TO ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST AND EXCLUDED ANY MENTION OF TSRA IN THE TAFS. THEN THINK WILL SEE A PERIOD OF DIMINISHING CLOUDS THIS EVENING BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS SURGES SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUD MASS SHOULD YIELD MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. THOUGH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA CONDITIONS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING...WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN. WILL LEAVE THAT TO LATER SHIFTS TO UPDATE. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN MN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH RIDGING IN-BETWEEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN TROUGHING AND A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN MN UPPER LOW. THIS DRY SLOT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING HELPED TO CLEAR SKIES OUT FROM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S / LOW 80S HAS RESULTED IN 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND NO CIN. THIS INSTABILITY AND LACK OF CAPPING HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF IN PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TO THE NORTHWEST...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXIST OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN. 925MB TEMPS ARE SIGNIFICANT COLDER TOO UNDER THESE CLOUDS...NOTED BY 10C TEMP AT BIS AT 12Z COMPARED TO 16-20C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT NEAR ALEXANDRIA MN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY ON ITS WEST SIDE LOOKS TO BECOME CENTERED OVER WI. FIRST...ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME STRONGER CELLS TIL ABOUT 5-6 PM WITH 0-6KM SHEAR RUNNING AROUND 30 KT AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT 20-25KT. THEN AS THAT TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRATUS AND SHOWERS. COLD FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z. REGARDING THOSE SHOWERS...MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOUD DEPTHS WOULD SUPPORT THEM MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD PICK UP A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KT. DAYTIME HEATING PLUS SUBSIDENCE AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WILL HELP CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES THEN LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA DRY. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE WARMER AIR ADVECT BACK IN WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO MAKE A DECENT JUMP DURING THE DAY...FROM 10-12C AT 12Z TO AROUND 18C AT 00Z. PLENTY OF SUN FROM THE MID MORNING ON UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PROGGED TO COME CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING NUMEROUS SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SHEARING OUT AND PROVIDING DPVA FORCING TO THIS REGION. PLENTIFUL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION TOO. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE THE SAME AMOUNT OF SPREAD HANDLING THIS CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 02.12Z NAM AND 02.09Z SREF STILL SHOW A NORTHERN TRACK...BASICALLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 02.12Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE 02.12Z HIRES-ARW SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A BOWING MCS...AIDED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING HIGH CAPE OUT OF KANSAS...CORFIDI VECTORS AND IN PARTICULAR THE FORWARD PROPAGATING VECTORS NEED TO BE FOLLOWED. THESE WOULD SUGGEST THE MCS SHOULD TAKE THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE... LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MO AND INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST SEVERE PROBS ARE IN THE DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK. EVEN IF THIS SOUTHERN ROUTE OCCURS...IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN END OF THE MCS AND/OR SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTH OF I-90 FOR 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MCS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM HEAD DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH. 1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED...DOWN TO 0.5-0.7 INCHES OR 70-90 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALONG WITH THIS DRY AIR...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE AT THE SURFACE TO AID IN LIGHT WINDS. MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S IN SOME OF OUR TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS. AS SUCH...HAVE TRENDED FORECAST LOWS COLDER...BUT MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. 2. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 02.12Z NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. HOWEVER...THE 02.12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...PRODUCING MOSTLY SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOME...PRIMARILY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT HIT 70 ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AT OR BELOW 8C WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 CURRENTLY WATCHING A SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN. RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TS ACTIVITY IN DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI THIS AFTN...KEEPING MAIN SHRA/TS THREAT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. OTHERWISE...BROKEN VFR CUMULUS FIELD WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING KRST/KLSE TAF SITES. PLAN ON WEST WINDS SUBSIDING AND DIMINISHING CUMULUS THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET/LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. MODELS THEN HINT AT VFR/MVFR STRATOCUMULUS SWINGING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...STAYING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TRIBUTARIES. THE KICKAPOO RIVER REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TRIBUTARY FLOODING WITH VIOLA HEADING TOWARDS FLOOD STAGE AND READSTOWN ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD BUT CRESTING. SOLDIERS GROVE AND GAYS MILLS DOWNSTREAM COULD GET CLOSE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND THEREFORE NEED TO BE WATCHED. SOME OF THE RUNOFF HAS HIT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH LEVELS NOW STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING NORTH OF LA CROSSE. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS WABASHA MAY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...THUS A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THERE. MEANWHILE...AT WINONA...CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS FAVORABLE TO HIT FLOOD...THEREFORE THE WATCH WAS CANCELLED THERE EARLIER THIS MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MNZ079. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...DAS HYDROLOGY...AJ