Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/02/14
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING MAINLY NIGHT TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM THE BEACHES TO THE VALLEYS FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH BREEZY WINDS AND FAIR SKIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
A WEAK SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS
KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL. MODELS ARE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE WINDS AND THERMAL SUPPORT...DESPITE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HOLDING NEAR YESTERDAYS LEVELS. 3-KM HRRR MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO A TAD WEAKER FOR THIS EVENING. LOCAL ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF AND NEAR
GAVIOTA.
OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE AXIS FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
SLIDES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM IS
STARTING TO PLAY INTO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST KLAX
AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS THINNING AS 1000-500
MB THICKNESS VALUES START TO RISE AS THE WEAK RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO PLAY FOR
SUNDAY BY REDUCING THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND COVERAGE SOMEWHAT
AND INTRODUCING A SLIGHT WARM-UP FOR SUNDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES TO SOUTHWEST OF LOS
ANGELES MOVES NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
INTO TUESDAY. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OUT IN THE DESERT
ON MONDAY AS THE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS DEVELOP AND COMBINE
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE A DRY STANCE WITH THE TROUGH...BUT A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR MONDAY AS
850 MB MIXING RATIO APPROACH 5 G/KG.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
ANOTHER TROUGH QUICKLY DIPS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH...REENFORCING ONSHORE FLOW AND ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED
DEEPER MARINE LAYER. A COOLING TREND LOOKS TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
CLIMB FOR LATE WEEK.
A FLAT RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR LATE WEEK AND SHOULD PROVIDE A
WARMING TREND WITH A THINNING MARINE LAYER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. A
JUNE GLOOM PATTERN COULD SET-UP ALONG THE COAST WITH ANY MARINE
LAYER CLOUDINESS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE
MARINE LAYER...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE WARM. LOCAL STUDIES SUGGEST
100 PLUS DEGREE TEMEPRATURES IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS...SUCH AS WOODLAND
HILLS...OJAI...AND SANTA CLARITA. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL IN
PLAY...THE PACKAGE DOES NOT TAKE SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE STANCE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...31/1800Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TAFS N OF PT CONCEPTION. IFR MARINE LAYER
CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 05Z BUT TIMING MAY DIFFER +/- 2 HRS
FROM TAF TIMES. 30% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDS FOR CENTRAL COAST SITES
OVERNIGHT...AND KPRB AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COAST AND VALLEY SITES S OF PT CONCEPTION. 30%
CHANCE TIMING OF MARINE LAYER CIGS WILL DIFFER 2 HRS OR MORE FROM
TAF TIMES. AREAL COVERAGE IS LOW CERTAINTY AS LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
AFFECT THE VENTURA COAST...AND MAY MOVE INLAND TO THE L.A. VALLEY
SITES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BREEZY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z TODAY...BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z...WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS UNCERTAIN AND
A 20% CHANCE LOW CIGS WILL NOT AFFECT THE SITE.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS 13Z-16Z SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...31/200 PM.
A STABLE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
A SURFACE HIGH AROUND 1033 MB ABOUT 700 NM WEST OF THE OREGON
COAST AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE S OF LAS VEGAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH LOCALLY MODERATE
NW TO WEST WINDS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA BETWEEN SANTA ROSA ISLAND AND PT
CONCEPTION.
FOR INNER WATERS...LOW END SCA WINDS WILL AFFECT PZZ645 THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...ALONG WITH SHORT PERIOD SEAS 5 TO 7
FT AT 8 SECONDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEARSHORE. A WEAK CATALINA
EDDY WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...CAUSING SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
RESULT IN ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET AT 7 SECONDS ACROSS
PZZ650/655.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL
MARINE...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
756 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
ISOLD STORMS ARE OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS. LATEST RAP SHOWS
CONVECTION DEVELOPING FM DENVER SE TOWARDS LIMON BY MIDNIGHT WHILE
THE HRRR HAS NOTHING. FOR NOW WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE ADDING ANY POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF SWEEPING THROUGH NEBRASKA
AND WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF DRYING AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD
MOTION ALSO NOTED IN RAP/NAM QG PRODUCTS AS WELL. SO FAR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF CWA. MEANWHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WELD AND THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE
COUNTIES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DENVER
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
INDICATED MORE CLOUDS. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO WITH AN EVER SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
WHILE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY. NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
A WARM FRONT AND THETA E RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING NORTH INTO
EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE MOVING INTO
WYOMING TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. MIN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM. MODELS ARE SPEEDING THE SYSTEM
UP SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL KICK IT OUT QUICKER TUESDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. HAVE PUSHED OUT THE CHANCE OF STORMS...AGAIN ONLY
EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...QUICKER AND INCREASED
MAX TEMPERATURES. THE QUICK PASSING DISTURBANCE HAS A 90 KT JET ON
THE BASE OF IT...OVER COLORADO. AS THE SURFACE LOW GETS PUSHED
EAST INTO KS/NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE. MUCH DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH IN...WITH VALUES NEAR 0.1 INCH OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL WARMER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO
THE NORTH MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT NOT MUCH
COVERAGE.
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A FEW UPPER TROUGHS PASS OVER THE AREA. TWO NOTABLE COLD FRONTS
WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS WELL...ONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
SATURDAY...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN BETWEEN. LOOK FOR COOLER THAN
NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
A FNT WILL AFFECT THE AIRPORT SHORTLY WITH GUSTY NNE WINDS FOR AN
HOUR WHICH WILL THEN DECREASE BY 04Z. LATEST RAP SHOWS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BY 06Z WHILE THE HRRR HAS NOTHING. FOR
NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN AT DIA. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS DVLP
LATER TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS BECOME SELY WHICH COLD LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT AT DIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CURRENT RIVER/STREAM FLOWS ARE HOLDING GENERALLY STEADY AND EXPECT
DIURNAL UPWARD TRENDS AND STREAMS LATER TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO
CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES BUT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY
DOWNSTREAM ON THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT BALZAC ON MONDAY ACROSS
MORGAN COUNTY. EXPECT MORE RISES IN RIVER/STREAM LEVELS BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A WARMING TREND.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
440 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH THAN WHAT THE RAP AND WRF MODELS
HAVE INDICATED QPF WISE. CONVECTION AND QPF IN THE NAM MODEL MAY
BE A LITTLE OVERDONE BUT IS DEFINITELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN
THE DRIER HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. AIR MASS TRENDING TO A DRIER
REGIME TODAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...GRADIENT
FLOW...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR FOR SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF. A COUPLE OF STRONG CELLS HAVE FORMED IN MOFFAT
COUNTY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER.
UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TAKES
A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION THIS EVENING AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN
COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS EXPANDING AREAS OF QPF TONIGHT AS THIS
WAVE MOVES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO. QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOW
SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR NW COLORADO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
THIS FORCING IS FRACTURED. SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AT AROUND
25-35 MPH FROM THE SW TO NE.
ONCE THE WAVE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...WSW ADVECTS DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS INTO UTAH AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
NEARLY NON EXISTENT...MEANING DRY WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY POINTING TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOWERS AFTER WEDNESDAY
AS MODEL AGREEMENT LESSENS. AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE... LEAVING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND ACROSS WEST.
A PACIFIC UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 130W/30N THIS AFTERNOON GETS PULLED
INLAND ACROSS CA ON MONDAY...THEN TRACKS ACROSS NRN UT NWRN CO ON
TUE. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE...
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BUT...ITS PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME WINDIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY POSE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER WAVE COMING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BUT DIFFER ON SPEED AND ORGANIZATION.
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MTNS SHOWERS THU-SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 431 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
THIS EVENING NORTH OF A LINE FROM KCNY-KGJT-KMTJ-KGUC-KMYP. GUSTY
WINDS OF 30-35 KTS AND LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION HAZARD. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z
AND FINISHED BY 12Z. DRY WEATHER WITH NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUED VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION WITH RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH. THE
HIGHEST FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON
BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THESE CONDITIONS.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH THAN WHAT THE RAP AND WRF MODELS
HAVE INDICATED QPF WISE. CONVECTION AND QPF IN THE NAM MODEL MAY
BE A LITTLE OVERDONE BUT IS DEFINITELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN
THE DRIER HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. AIR MASS TRENDING TO A DRIER
REGIME TODAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...GRADIENT
FLOW...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR FOR SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF. A COUPLE OF STRONG CELLS HAVE FORMED IN MOFFAT
COUNTY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER.
UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TAKES
A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION THIS EVENING AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN
COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS EXPANDING AREAS OF QPF TONIGHT AS THIS
WAVE MOVES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO. QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOW
SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR NW COLORADO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
THIS FORCING IS FRACTURED. SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AT AROUND
25-35 MPH FROM THE SW TO NE.
ONCE THE WAVE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...WSW ADVECTS DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS INTO UTAH AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
NEARLY NON EXISTENT...MEANING DRY WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY POINTING TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOWERS AFTER WEDNESDAY
AS MODEL AGREEMENT LESSENS. AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE... LEAVING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND ACROSS WEST.
A PACIFIC UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 130W/30N THIS AFTERNOON GETS PULLED
INLAND ACROSS CA ON MONDAY...THEN TRACKS ACROSS NRN UT NWRN CO ON
TUE. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE...
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BUT...ITS PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME WINDIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY POSE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER WAVE COMING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BUT DIFFER ON SPEED AND ORGANIZATION.
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MTNS SHOWERS THU-SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z EVENING NORTH OF A
LINE OF KCNY- KGJT-KMTJ-KGUC-KMYP. GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35 KTS AND
LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD. ISOLATED
-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z AND FINISHED BY 12Z. DRY
WEATHER WITH NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. CONTINUED VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION WITH RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH. THE
HIGHEST FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON
BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THESE CONDITIONS.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
843 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
DISTURBANCE EJECTING ACROSS THE WRN SLOPE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST
ACROSS NW COLORADO...POORLY RESOLVED BY MOST HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS. APPEARS THE TREND FOR TODAY WILL BE DRIER AIR FOLLOWING
THIS DISTURBANCE...EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION. THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY BE OCCURRING THIS MORNING
HOURS...BUT DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG THE COLORADO
SPINE.
THE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER EVENING DISTURBANCE CROSSING NE
UTAH INTO NW COLORADO THAT COULD SPAWN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL IF THE INCOMING
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES AS SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW ALLOWING SOME QUICK SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS TO FIRE
BEFORE QUICKLY SCOOTING OFF TO THE EAST. THE HRRR IS DOING FAIRLY
WELL PICKING UP ON THIS CONVECTION SO FOLLOWED THIS GUIDANCE WITH
MOST CONVECTION DYING DOWN NEAR SUNRISE THOUGH AN ODD CELL OR TWO
MAY REMAIN...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FROM NOON ONWARDS. PWATS
REMAIN HIGH WITH INSTABILITY AND CAPE FAVORING HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITH FORECAST FOLLOWING SUIT. ATTM...MODELS FAVORING THE FLATTOPS
AND CENTRAL MTNS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE A BIT MORE THAN THAT.
THOSE AREAS THAT SEE THESE STORMS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE SEPARATING FROM
THE LEFT COAST THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...PULLING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL FOCUS MAINLY TO
OUR NORTH. HOWEVER ADDED LIFT WILL COME FROM THE INDIRECT
CIRCULATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET NOSING INTO UTAH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH THE BETTER FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
KEEP THINGS MILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE WANING
BY SUNRISE WITH ONLY HIGH BASED WEAK SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND KEEP RIVERS RUNNING STRONG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAJA BULGES
NORTHWARD INTO THE 4 CORNERS AREA. THIS EFFECTIVELY CUTS OFF A
MOISTURE TAP AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY WARMING A FEW DEGREES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT PUSHING THE NEXT
PACIFIC LOW INTO CALIFORNIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ALOFT AND BRING MORE AFTERNOON BREEZINESS ALONG
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE SUBTROPICAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORECAST
MOISTURE REMAINS LOW WITH LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP INCREASING
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. AFTER
THAT...THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH GETS FLATTENED...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER LEAVING ERN UT/WRN CO TO
DEAL WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WITH
LITTLE UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND MEAGER MOISTURE...AN OCCNL
SHOWER/STORM MAY POP UP HERE OR THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME STORMS DRIFTING OVER
NEARBY VALLEYS. MTN TAF SITES LOOK TO BE UNDER THE GUN TODAY
INCLUDING KEGE...KASE...AND KTEX THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL FORM ON-STATION. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WITH STORMS THAT FORM. SOME
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION
WITH RIVERS AND STREAMS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH OR INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOW INCREASES. THE
HIGHEST FLOWS ARE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE
GUNNISON BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING
BORDER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. THAT BEING SAID...ALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS THE FORECAST WILL BE RUNNING FAST AND STRONG THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING
DOWN OR RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...TGR/15
LONG TERM...15/TGR
AVIATION...TGR
HYDROLOGY...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
309 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES AS SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW ALLOWING SOME QUICK SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS TO FIRE
BEFORE QUICKLY SCOOTING OFF TO THE EAST. THE HRRR IS DOING FAIRLY
WELL PICKING UP ON THIS CONVECTION SO FOLLOWED THIS GUIDANCE WITH
MOST CONVECTION DYING DOWN NEAR SUNRISE THOUGH AN ODD CELL OR TWO
MAY REMAIN...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FROM NOON ONWARDS. PWATS
REMAIN HIGH WITH INSTABILITY AND CAPE FAVORING HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITH FORECAST FOLLOWING SUIT. ATTM...MODELS FAVORING THE FLATTOPS
AND CENTRAL MTNS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE A BIT MORE THAN THAT.
THOSE AREAS THAT SEE THESE STORMS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE SEPARATING FROM
THE LEFT COAST THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...PULLING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL FOCUS MAINLY TO
OUR NORTH. HOWEVER ADDED LIFT WILL COME FROM THE INDIRECT
CIRCULATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET NOSING INTO UTAH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH THE BETTER FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
KEEP THINGS MILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE WANING
BY SUNRISE WITH ONLY HIGH BASED WEAK SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND KEEP RIVERS RUNNING STRONG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAJA BULGES
NORTHWARD INTO THE 4 CORNERS AREA. THIS EFFECTIVELY CUTS OFF A
MOISTURE TAP AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY WARMING A FEW DEGREES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT PUSHING THE NEXT
PACIFIC LOW INTO CALIFORNIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ALOFT AND BRING MORE AFTERNOON BREEZINESS ALONG
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE SUBTROPICAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORECAST
MOISTURE REMAINS LOW WITH LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP INCREASING
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. AFTER
THAT...THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH GETS FLATTENED...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER LEAVING ERN UT/WRN CO TO
DEAL WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WITH
LITTLE UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND MEAGER MOISTURE...AN OCCNL
SHOWER/STORM MAY POP UP HERE OR THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME STORMS DRIFTING OVER
NEARBY VALLEYS. MTN TAF SITES LOOK TO BE UNDER THE GUN TODAY
INCLUDING KEGE...KASE...AND KTEX THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL FORM ON-STATION. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WITH STORMS THAT FORM. SOME
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION
WITH RIVERS AND STREAMS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH OR INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOW INCREASES. THE
HIGHEST FLOWS ARE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE
GUNNISON BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING
BORDER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. THAT BEING SAID...ALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS THE FORECAST WILL BE RUNNING FAST AND STRONG THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING
DOWN OR RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/15
LONG TERM...15/TGR
AVIATION...TGR
HYDROLOGY...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONSISTING OF AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW OVER TOP A STUBBORN CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN MS
VALLEY. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW RIDGES WAY TO THE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA BEFORE SHARPLY DIVING SOUTH INTO A
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS ON A SLOW SOUTHWARD PATH THAT WILL TAKE
IT TO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...HOWEVER THIS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN SOME "BLOW-OFF" CIRRUS INVADING OUR SKIES.
THE MORNING 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS WE HAVE A MOIST PROFILE THROUGH
THE EXTENT OF THE TROP WITH A MEASURED PW VALUES AROUND 1.75".
STEERING LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 400MB IS VERY LIGHT (VECTOR AVERAGE IS
JUST A SLIGHT PUSH FROM EAST TO WEST)...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORM MOTION
VECTORS ARE MAYBE 5-10KNOTS FROM EAST TO WEST...SO WILL BE LOOKING
FOR SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL CAPE WITH THE
MOIST SOUNDING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH (AT LEAST NOT TOO FAT A
PROFILE THROUGH ANY ONE LEVEL)...HOWEVER THE HIGH PW VALUE WILL
FAVOR EFFICIENT WATER LOADING OF THE STRONG CELLS WHICH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE FORECAST FOR YET
ANOTHER DAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING A WEAK EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS THIS RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE LOCAL GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND
RESULT IN SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE
THE STRUCTURE AND PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORMS THAT WE HAVE BECOME
ACCUSTOMED TO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR A QUICK INLAND PENETRATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED UP THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA...AND WILL SLOWLY
EVOLVE/TRANSLATE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE COLUMN SEEMS PRIMED FOR STORM
COVERAGE TO AGAIN BE NUMEROUS IN NATURE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR...
AND THINK STORMS WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME MOVING WEST TO THE COAST
TODAY (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SLOW). AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WATER LOADING
OF THE STRONG CELLS WILL STILL PROVIDE A LOCALIZED WIND
THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND INSIDE THE I-75 CORRIDOR (AFTER 4PM)
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR THE BEST UPDRAFTS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE...AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
LOCALLY RUN WRFARW GUIDANCE RUNS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND FEEL CONFIDENT WITH THE CURRENT
60-70% POPS IN THE GRIDS ALONG THE FAVORED ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE.
LEFTOVER STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING LATER THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE TYPICAL WARM
SEASON CALM PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
SUNRISE.
SUNDAY...
THE FINAL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TIGHTENS THE LOCAL
GRADIENT. A WEAK ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD THIS
RIDGE ADVANCE INTO THE PENINSULA DURING SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS MUCH MORE DEFINED ALOFT IN TERMS OF DRIER AIR...CAA. AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
ADDED TO THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AS DEVELOPING
SHALLOW SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THAT WILL THEN QUICKLY
TRANSLATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE STRONGER EAST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A MINIMUM OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND AND THEREFORE...WHILE EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO ADVANCE INTO HIGHLANDS/POLK/SUMTER COUNTIES...THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD
NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND FEEL THE THREAT FOR STRONGER CELLS
INLAND IS LOW.
EASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO REACH 15-20 BY
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS PLENTY OF MOMENTUM
TO PIN ANY SEABREEZE AT THE COAST OR EVEN PREVENT A DEFINED
SEA-BREEZE FROM EVEN BECOMING ESTABLISHED. WHAT WE ARE MORE LIKELY
TO SEE IS A LOCAL SLOWING OF THE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS
THE SEA-BREEZE UNSUCCESSFULLY ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP. THIS SLOWING
WHILE NOT AS EFFICIENT AT FOCUS AS AN ACTUAL BOUNDARY...WILL STILL
PROVIDE SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE TO ASSIST IN UPDRAFT FORMATION. WITH
THIS IN MIND FEEL THE BEST LATER DAY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...
AND THE BEST CHANCE AT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE INSIDE/WEST OF
THE I-75 CORRIDOR. KEEP THIS IN MIND IF HEADING TO THE BEACHES DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMEST TEMPS
(UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S) WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND THE I-75 CORRIDOR
WHEN THE LEAST MARINE INFLUENCE AND LATEST CONVECTIVE ARRIVAL ARE
EXPECTED. WELL INLAND THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD MOST PLACES UNDER THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
&&
.MID TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT STEADILY SOUTHWARD TO A LOCATION OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PROPEL A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY CONTINUING
TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY...COLUMN MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. AS A RESULT...WILL
SHOW POPS RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO 50/60
PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS OFFERING UP VARYING SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIODS...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN BOTH SHOW STRONGER DEEP
LAYER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AND AS A RESULT THEY KEEP THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND OUT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE TO HANG UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEK. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING
AWAY FROM SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH ARE PROGRESS SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR MOST OF THE
TERMINALS TO SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
STORM...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT. STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND
MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MID EVENING WITH GENERAL VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN
PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL FLOW ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASE TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 90 73 88 / 30 60 20 30
FMY 72 90 73 89 / 20 60 20 50
GIF 71 88 71 87 / 20 60 10 30
SRQ 72 90 73 89 / 40 60 30 40
BKV 69 91 70 87 / 30 60 10 30
SPG 75 88 75 87 / 40 60 30 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT Sat May 31 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight...
Thunderstorms have developed initially early this afternoon very
near where recent runs of the 3km HRRR and the 09Z run of our
local WRF-ARW expected - around the lower Apalachicola River and
Gulf County in the Florida Panhandle. As these models were the
basis of the updated forecast this morning, the forecast seems to
be on track for the next 6-12 hours. Additional thunderstorms are
developing along the Atlantic sea breeze in northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia, and should advance into eastern parts of our
area later this afternoon. Thunderstorms could linger into the
evening hours - particularly in southwest Georgia and the Florida
Big Bend. PoPs were kept higher in these eastern areas, with
scattered thunderstorms expected elsewhere. An isolated strong to
severe storm is not out of the question, especially near boundary
collisions where enhanced low-level convergence would be expected.
.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
The large scale amplified blocking pattern of recent days begins to
break down into a more progressive pattern thru the short term. The
CWA will be between upper low over Wrn Gulf of Mex and upper high
over SE Conus. However this low has gradually but steadily filled in
last 12 hrs as both systems continue to drop south and weaken with
low progressively replaced by a weak upper ridge extending Ewd from
Srn Plains to across the deep south by Mon night.
Sunday...at surface, building high along mid-Atlc coast with ridging
Swwd across NE Gulf region yielding increasing ESE flow sfc-H5 and
PWATs approaching 2 inches. Ahead of ridge, weak backdoor front will
be nudged SWWD into SE GA in the late morning and dropping into the
Big Bend in the aftn. Lacking upper forcing, mesoscale processes,
including the front, the sea breeze, and outflow clashes will
provide the primary forcing for convection and PoP distribution,
typical of summertime. The east coast sea breeze will once again
concentrate evening convection primarily across our SW GA zones.
Look for fairly evenly scattered convection with 60% PoPs daytime,
50-20% SW-NE evening POPs, highest near front. Inland high temps in
upper 80s, except mid 80s NE tier GA counties due to clouds assocd
with above boundaries.
Monday...as surface high builds further down the Ern seaboard to
Carolina coast by sundown, our 1000-700 mb winds back and increase
to moderate ELY over east half but remain light ESE over west half.
In addition, with backdoor front now south of CWA and ridge
strengthening, drier air will build in from the ENE pushing PWATs
below 1.3 inches Ern most counties by sunset (still around 1.7
inches Wrn counties). This should reduce convective coverage,
particularly across our eastern zones. 50-20% daytime and 30-0%
eve SW-NE POP gradients. Temperatures will be close to seasonal
norms. Inland highs in mid 80s, low mid 60s east to upper 60s
west.
.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The Wrn Gulf upper low will slide off the SW as the upper level
ridge moves east toward the Carolinas and upstream ridge begins to
build Newd into the Gulf region and deep south later on Tues thru
Wed. At surface, ridge across the SE region remains largely intact.
The upper ridge will gradually breakdown beginning on Thurs. So
lacking upper forcing especially thru Wed, expect a generally
summertime rainfall pattern of SE low level flow and wdly sct to
scattered convection determined largely by aftn/eve seabreeze and
outflow clashes rest of workweek. Looking longer term, a weak
surface low still appears to form across Bay of Campeche or Nrn
Yucatan Peninsula around Wed bears watching as moisture heads
towards our area beginning on Sat.
Will go with mainly aftn/eve 30-20% W-E POPs on Tues, 20-30% S-N Fri
and 30-40% Sat. Otherwise NIL POPS. Temperatures will be near Climo
with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday] An initial area of thunderstorm development
should affect ECP between 19-21Z. IFR VIS will be possible along
with some gusty winds. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are
expected. This was mostly handled in the other terminal forecasts
with a longer period of prevailing SHRA with VCTS, as timing and
location of thunderstorms is still a bit uncertain. VFR should
generally prevail outside of thunderstorms.
&&
.Marine...
Winds will generally be out of the east-southeast over the next
several days, veering to more directly onshore near the coast each
afternoon in the sea breeze. A ridge of high pressure will build
down the eastern seaboard and the gradient will become tight enough
for an easterly surge event Sunday night into Monday, which is now
expected to bring cautionary level winds and seas and borderline
advisory level winds Sunday overnight well offshore. As the ridge
settles further south, the gradient will weaken allowing winds and
seas to subside for the early part of the work week.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.
&&
.Hydrology...
With a summertime pattern well established across the region,
large scale flooding is not anticipated. As on most summer days,
isolated areas of heavy rain will be possible in some
thunderstorms. These may briefly produce flooding in poor drainage
areas and could cause sharp rises on the faster responding small
creeks and streams. Main stem rivers are expected to remain in
their banks.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 69 87 68 86 68 / 40 60 50 30 20
Panama City 72 86 72 84 72 / 20 50 40 40 20
Dothan 69 87 67 86 68 / 40 60 40 30 20
Albany 69 86 66 86 66 / 60 60 30 20 10
Valdosta 68 86 65 87 66 / 50 60 40 20 10
Cross City 68 87 67 86 66 / 40 60 30 20 10
Apalachicola 72 85 73 84 73 / 20 50 40 30 20
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight CDT tonight for Coastal Bay-
South Walton.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1036 AM EDT Sat May 31 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Showers and thunderstorms this morning over the Gulf of Mexico
have mostly dissipated, except for a few lingering showers just
west of Panama City as of 14Z. Therefore, most of the forecast
area was experiencing dry conditions with a mixture of low-mid
level cloud decks and sunshine. Overall, there is very little
difference between the 12Z sounding taken this morning from
Tallahassee, and the one taken 24 hours ago. Light E-SE flow
continues in the lower troposphere, with fairly light flow aloft.
Recent runs of the 3km HRRR as well as the 09Z run of our 4km WRF-
ARW appear to be modeling ongoing conditions fairly well. Both
show the most concentrated initial convective development between
17Z and 19Z in the Apalachicola River basin as well as the eastern
Florida Big Bend near the Suwannee River. They also both show
activity in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend diminishing around
22Z, with the 22-04Z time frame being dominated by larger
convective clusters in southwest Georgia. This would make sense
with lighter E-SE 1000-700mb flow as thunderstorms along the
Atlantic sea breeze and inland Florida peninsula trough should
progress into eastern parts of the area closer to sunset, and
possibly combine with previous inland development in C/SC GA.
Given that these models have verified well so far, and the
similarities in evolution to what occurred yesterday, we have
tweaked the forecast to follow that general timeline. The
inherited forecast, however, already described that fairly well.
Highs should be around 90 degrees - warmest in SW Georgia.
&&
.Prev Discussion [257 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The upper low west of the region will gradually but steadily fill
as it drops south into the western Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Sunday. Mesoscale processes, including the sea breeze, will provide
the primary forcing for convection and PoP distribution, typical
of summertime. The east coast sea breeze will once again
concentrate evening convection primarily across our Southwest GA
zones. Look for fairly evenly scattered convection on Sunday with
PoPs around 50 as PWs remain elevated around 2 inches. As surface
high pressure builds further down the eastern seaboard on Monday,
our 1000-700 mb winds will become light out of the east across our
eastern zones while southeasterly winds persist further west. In
addition, drier air will build in from the east pushing PWs below
1.5 inches in that region. This should reduce convective coverage,
particularly across our eastern zones. Temperatures will be close
to seasonal norms.
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The upper level low will slide off the west as the upper level ridge
moves east toward the Carolinas. Winds from the southeast will bring
moisture from the Gulf increasing the chance for showers. Better
chance for afternoon and evening sea breeze thunderstorms Monday
and Tuesday. Temperatures will be near climatology with highs in
the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s.
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday] Low ceilings and MVFR fog should overspread
at least VLD, and possibly TLH and ABY over the next few hours.
All terminals will return to VFR shortly after sunrise. Expect
showers and thunderstorms at ECP and VLD, earlier in the day at
ECP and towards mid to late afternoon at VLD. This evening,
showers and thunderstorms should reach TLH and possibly ABY.
Expect VFR to prevail today outside of thunderstorms.
.Marine...
Winds will generally be out of the east-southeast over the next
several days, veering to more directly onshore near the coast each
afternoon in the sea breeze. A ridge of high pressure will build
down the eastern seaboard and the gradient will become tight enough
for an easterly surge event Sunday night, which is now expected to
bring cautionary level winds and seas to the waters. As the ridge
settles further south, the gradient will weaken allowing winds and
seas to subside for the early part of the work week.
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.
.Hydrology...
With a summertime pattern well established across the region,
large scale flooding is not anticipated. As on most summer days,
isolated areas of heavy rain will be possible in some
thunderstorms. These may briefly produce flooding in poor drainage
areas and could cause sharp rises on the faster responding small
creeks and streams. Main stem rivers are expected to remain in
their banks.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 89 69 88 68 88 / 40 40 50 40 30
Panama City 84 72 86 72 86 / 60 20 50 40 40
Dothan 89 69 89 68 88 / 40 40 50 40 30
Albany 90 69 87 66 88 / 70 60 50 30 20
Valdosta 91 68 90 65 90 / 70 50 50 20 20
Cross City 88 68 88 67 88 / 60 40 50 30 30
Apalachicola 84 72 86 73 85 / 30 20 40 40 30
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1030 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONSISTING OF AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW OVER TOP A STUBBORN CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN MS
VALLEY. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW RIDGES WAY TO THE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA BEFORE SHARPLY DIVING SOUTH INTO A
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT. PLENTY OF CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...HOWEVER THIS MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN SOME "BLOW-OFF" CIRRUS
INVADING OUR SKIES.
THE MORNING 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS WE HAVE A MOIST PROFILE THROUGH
THE EXTENT OF THE TROP WITH A MEASURED PW VALUES AROUND 1.75".
STEERING LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 400MB IS VERY VERY LIGHT (VECTOR AVERAGE
IS JUST A SLIGHT PUSH FROM EAST TO WEST)...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORM MOTION
VECTORS ARE MAYBE 5-10KNOTS FROM EAST TO WEST...SO WILL BE LOOKING
FOR SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS LATER TODAY. OVERALL CAPE WITH THE MOIST
SOUNDING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH (AT LEAST NOT TOO FAT A PROFILE
THROUGH ANY ONE LEVEL)...HOWEVER THE HIGH PW VALUE WILL FAVOR
EFFICIENT WATER LOADING OF THE STRONG CELLS WHICH WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE FORECAST FOR YET
ANOTHER DAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING A WEAK EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS THIS RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE LOCAL GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND
RESULT IN SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE
THE STRUCTURE AND PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORMS THAT WE HAVE BECOME
ACCUSTOMED TO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BUT..THAT IS
TOMORROW...LETS TALK MORE ABOUT TODAY.
THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR A QUICK INLAND PENETRATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE. EXPECT TO SEE A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND UP THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY EVOLVE/TRANSLATE TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
COLUMN SEEMS PRIMED FOR STORM COVERAGE TO AGAIN BE NUMEROUS IN
NATURE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR...AND THINK STORMS WILL HAVE AN
EASIER TIME MOVING WEST TO THE COAST TODAY (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
SLOW). AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WATER LOADING OF THE STRONG CELLS WILL
STILL PROVIDE A LOCALIZED WIND THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND INSIDE
THE I-75 CORRIDOR (AFTER 3-4PM) WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FOCUS
FOR THE BEST UPDRAFTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE...AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY RUN WRFARW GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS...AND FEEL CONFIDENT WITH THE CURRENT 60-70% POPS IN THE
GRIDS ALONG THE FAVORED ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE.
LEFTOVER STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING LATER THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE TYPICAL WARM
SEASON CALM PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
SUNRISE.
&&
.MID TERM (SUNDAY-MONDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT STEADILY SOUTHWARD TO A LOCATION OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PROPEL A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUING TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY
EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ON SUNDAY...SO WILL
CARRY HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIPS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. AS A RESULT...WILL SHOW
POPS RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO 50/60
PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS OFFERING UP VARYING SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIODS...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN BOTH SHOW STRONGER DEEP
LAYER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AND AS A RESULT THEY KEEP THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND OUT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE TO HANG UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEK. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AWAY FROM SCT-NMRS
SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR MANY OF THE TERMINALS
TO SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING STORM...BUT THE
DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT. STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE
AFTER MID EVENING WITH VFR GENERAL VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO ALL THE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER INLAND AREAS WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE EACH DAY...BRINGING DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEFLY
ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES TO THE WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH
HEADLINE CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A THE EFFECTS OF A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLY SURGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASE TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 74 90 73 / 60 30 70 20
FMY 91 72 91 73 / 60 20 60 20
GIF 90 72 89 71 / 60 20 50 10
SRQ 89 73 91 73 / 60 30 70 30
BKV 89 69 90 70 / 60 30 60 10
SPG 87 75 89 75 / 60 30 70 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA
MARINE...LEWIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
921 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE OVER OREGON THIS MORNING
WILL BE THE NEXT MAIN PLAYER FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP/RUC THIS MORNING SHOWING VARYING AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. HRRR IN FAVOR OF HOLDING OFF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND NOT QUITE
WHERE THE OTHER MODELS ARE PLACING THE BEST INSTABILITY. CLOUD
DECK MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OREGON SHORTWAVE COULD BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS
TODAY...WITH CURRENT BEST INSTABILITY IN THE CLEARING OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS A BLEND OF THE
SIGNALS...AND CURRENT GRIDS PLAY THIS OUT FAIRLY WELL.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LOW WITH DRY SOUNDINGS SO SMALL HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS BEST THREAT FOR TODAY. NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STORM NUMBER 1 WILL
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY TOMORROW. WE
ARE ALREADY SEE SOME MOISTURE WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR NOW THOUGH...IT APPEARS THIS IS ALL MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND VIRGA. YOU CAN EXPECT PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES
AND GUSTY WINDS OUT OF ANYTHING BEFORE NOON. AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS
FAR WESTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON...AN BIG UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THIS IS WHEN WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...AGAIN
ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS OVER 40MPH AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER
STORMS. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT ANY BIG THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS...BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS
BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE DUE TO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. FOR
TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS
AS WELL AS THE UPPER PLAIN. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE STORM
SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS ANY REAL STORM THREAT WILL BE
NORTH OF A HAILEY TO ALPINE, WYOMING LINE. SOME STORMS WILL BE
STRONG...BUT NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT STILL LOOKING AT 70S FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. FOR THOSE HEADING INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY...50S
AND 60S ARE ON TAP DURING THE DAY. AT NIGHT...SOME HIGHER PEAKS
AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP TO NEAR 35 DEGREES SO MAKE SURE YOU
ARE PREPARED. KEYES
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES ASHORE ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY POPS UP OVER IDAHO.
THIS WILL PUSH SOME FOLKS BACK UP INTO THE LOW 80S. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE THOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. WE ARE
LOOKING AT 1-2 PUNCH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY WAVE NUMBER 2. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
STORM ACTUALLY SPLITS AND WE ARE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE SPLIT. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH THIS
PATTERN VS THE GFS. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS FOR BOTH
DAYS. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW A LARGER SYSTEM
SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN U.S. IT
LOOKS EASTERN IDAHO WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN END...WHICH WOULD
PUT HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL STILL BE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
SOME FLUCTUATION LIKELY DUE TO CLOUD COVER. LOWS WON`T BE TOO BAD
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER PEAKS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE WE WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES TRYING TO DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING SOME MORNINGS. KEYES
AVIATION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
WASHINGTON WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KSUN AND AREAS NEAR THE MONTANA AND
IDAHO BORDER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT KIDA...KPIH AND
KBYI AFTER 20Z. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE OVER SOUTHEAST
IDAHO TONIGHT. SOME RESPECTABLE COLD AIR ALOFT...LAPSE RATES REMAIN
STEEP PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A
CONCERN PARTICULARLY AT KSUN AND KIDA. RS
FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THIS MORNING WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO OVER NIGHT TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND
SUN VALLEY TO STANLEY AND TOWARDS MONIDA PASS BY LATE THIS MORNING.
BEST LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE TARGHEE FOREST AREA ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE PAST MIDNIGHT WITH THE
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE .01 TO .07 RANGE...VERY ISOLATED CELLS PRODUCING CLOSE TO .10
INCH. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FLOW PATTERN BECOMES WESTERLY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND TARGHEE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TODAY...THEN 5 TO 7
DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY. RS
HYDROLOGY...CONDITIONS ON VALLEY CREEK AROUND STANLEY ARE
STEADILY IMPROVING THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES WILL BE THE TETON RIVER BASIN. THE TETON RIVER AT ST.
ANTHONY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE BANKFULL AFTER TODAY AND REMAIN
THERE. THE TETON RIVER AROUND DRIGGS SHOULD PEAK JUST BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT SOME OF THE CREEKS COMING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER WILL BE RUNNING PRETTY HIGH. KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH
CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME INFERRED WEAK BOUNDARIES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEW POINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS WITH 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR...AND RAP TRENDS...THE CONVECTION FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH MORE NORTHERN PROGRESS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THUS AREAS
SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KSPI LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS.
AFTER SUNSET...THE REMAINING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY 10-11 PM
ALONG WITH THE REMAINING DIURNAL CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE QUIET AND DRY.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN INITIALLY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY MID DAY.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH SUNSET. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL ALLOW NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MOVING EAST.
IF CORRECT...THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WOULD ARRIVE IN THE AREA VERY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS IT
DISSIPATES. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS COMPLEX WOULD THEN
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT ON...
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. THE GFS KEEPS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
WEIGHING THE STRENGTHS/WEAKNESSES OF THE MODELS AND CONSIDERING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE...THE IDEA OF BRINGING IN A DRYING TREND
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DOES HAVE MERIT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS
EACH DAY. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE SUGGESTS A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH AN EAST/WEST BOUNDARY SETTING UP IN OR CLOSE TO THE
AREA. WILL IT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THE ENTIRE TIME. NO. EACH ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL DICTATE WHERE SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. SO...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ATTEMPTING TO PIN THEM DOWN IS NOT POSSIBLE
WHEN DEALING WITH NONLINEAR PROCESSES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN AXIS OF MOIST AIR FROM WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHEAST IOWA WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. SCT-BKN CIRRUS WILL KEEP THE VSBYS IN THE FOG
AROUND 5SM...HOWEVER ANY PROLONGED CLEARING OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW
VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL
IOWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHEAST IOWA.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
550 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECTING SUBSTANTIAL LOW
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME AND BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN VICINITY OF OLD...CLOSED LOW THAT IS
MEANDERING OVER ARKANSAS. ALSO SEEING WEAK CONVECTION FORMING ALONG
NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS AND
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. OVERALL LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
FORCING REMAINS WEAK ACROSS EASTERN PART OF CWA...THUS CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG AND EAST OF KANSAS TURNPIKE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND SUB-SEVERE.
TONIGHT: SOME CONCERN ABOUT CONVECTION FORMING ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT
OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THAT CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED NORTH
AND WEST OF CWA. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL INCREASE
KINEMATIC FORCING THIS EVENING. QUICK PEEK AT NSSL WRF
ENSEMBLE/SSEF HINTING
AT A SMALL QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS KANSAS HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID-EVENING. SOME REFLECTION OF THIS SCENARIO
BEING INDICATED BY HRRR AS WELL...ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. REGARDLESS ALL THESE MESO
MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING...AS FLOW STARTS BACKING AS
STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY: FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS HIGH PLAINS...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO PANHANDLE. INITIAL STORM DEVELOP LIKELY WILL
BE WEST OF CWA WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED...BUT DIABATIC
HEATING ALONG DRYLINE WILL RAMP UP INSTABILITY BY MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...CONFIDENT
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE EXPLODING WEST OF THE CWA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH DRYLINE
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT GIVEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL CONGEAL INTO MCS...AND TRACK
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL 310-315 THETA
GRADIENT...GENERALLY ALONG I-70 AND EASTERN US 50 CORRIDORS. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 1500-2500J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND
35-50KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
MONDAY: LINGERING CONVECTION DEBRIS WILL IMPACT MAINLY EASTERN
PART OF CWA DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND LEFT
OVER MESO BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN MAINLY EAST WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
INCREASE LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES INTO THE 2000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH BULK SHEAR PROFILES AGAIN IN THE 35-50KT RANGE. MID-LEVEL
CAPPING AGAIN MAY BE A DETERRENT TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY: FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO CURRENT THINKING IS WEATHER WILL BE RATHER QUIET ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. FORECAST MODELS AGAIN
INDICATING THAT ANOTHER MCS COULD FORM WESTERN NEBRASKA/EASTERN
WYOMING AND MOVE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRACK APPEARS
FURTHER NORTH...SO MAY JUST BRUSH CWA.
SF
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SEVERAL REINFORCING SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO SUPPRESS SOUTHERN U.S.
RIDGE WITH TIME...THUS AREA LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION. GEFS DEPICTING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF EACH SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE...SO TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT KCNU THROUGH 01-02Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED
CENTERED AROUND 12Z BEFORE MIXING OUT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER
22Z ON SUNDAY WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 67 88 70 89 / 10 10 40 20
HUTCHINSON 66 89 69 89 / 20 10 50 20
NEWTON 66 87 68 88 / 10 10 50 20
ELDORADO 66 85 68 86 / 10 10 50 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 67 87 70 88 / 10 10 40 20
RUSSELL 67 91 67 88 / 20 40 70 10
GREAT BEND 66 91 67 89 / 20 40 70 10
SALINA 67 91 69 89 / 20 20 70 20
MCPHERSON 67 89 69 89 / 20 20 50 20
COFFEYVILLE 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 30
CHANUTE 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40
IOLA 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40
PARSONS-KPPF 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
339 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECTING SUBSTANTIAL LOW
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME AND BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN VICINITY OF OLD...CLOSED LOW THAT IS
MEANDERING OVER ARKANSAS. ALSO SEEING WEAK CONVECTION FORMING ALONG
NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS AND
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. OVERALL LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
FORCING REMAINS WEAK ACROSS EASTERN PART OF CWA...THUS CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG AND EAST OF KANSAS TURNPIKE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND SUB-SEVERE.
TONIGHT: SOME CONCERN ABOUT CONVECTION FORMING ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT
OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THAT CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED NORTH
AND WEST OF CWA. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL INCREASE
KINEMATIC FORCING THIS EVENING. QUICK PEEK AT NSSL WRF
ENSEMBLE/SSEF HINTING
AT A SMALL QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS KANSAS HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID-EVENING. SOME REFLECTION OF THIS SCENARIO
BEING INDICATED BY HRRR AS WELL...ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. REGARDLESS ALL THESE MESO
MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING...AS FLOW STARTS BACKING AS
STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY: FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS HIGH PLAINS...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO PANHANDLE. INITIAL STORM DEVELOP LIKELY WILL
BE WEST OF CWA WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED...BUT DIABATIC
HEATING ALONG DRYLINE WILL RAMP UP INSTABILITY BY MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...CONFIDENT
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE EXPLODING WEST OF THE CWA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH DRYLINE
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT GIVEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL CONGEAL INTO MCS...AND TRACK
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL 310-315 THETA
GRADIENT...GENERALLY ALONG I-70 AND EASTERN US 50 CORRIDORS. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 1500-2500J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND
35-50KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
MONDAY: LINGERING CONVECTION DEBRIS WILL IMPACT MAINLY EASTERN
PART OF CWA DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND LEFT
OVER MESO BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN MAINLY EAST WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
INCREASE LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES INTO THE 2000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH BULK SHEAR PROFILES AGAIN IN THE 35-50KT RANGE. MID-LEVEL
CAPPING AGAIN MAY BE A DETERRENT TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY: FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO CURRENT THINKING IS WEATHER WILL BE RATHER QUIET ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. FORECAST MODELS AGAIN
INDICATING THAT ANOTHER MCS COULD FORM WESTERN NEBRASKA/EASTERN
WYOMING AND MOVE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRACK APPEARS
FURTHER NORTH...SO MAY JUST BRUSH CWA.
SF
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SEVERAL REINFORCING SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO SUPPRESS SOUTHERN U.S.
RIDGE WITH TIME...THUS AREA LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION. GEFS DEPICTING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF EACH SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE...SO TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/MVRF TO IFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TOMORROW MORNING ARE MAIN ISSUES. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN PER LAST SEVERAL DAYS AT KCNU...WHILE A WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVERAGE IN CENTRAL KS.
CHANCES AT KRSL SHOULD WANE RAPIDLY AROUND 2300 UTC AS AXIS OF
WAVE PASSES. MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL
SATURATION DURING THE NIGHT...SO PLAYED LOW CLOUDS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE. APPEARS THAT MVFR WOULD BE LIKELY AROUND
DAYBREAK...WITH IFR POSSIBLE...SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. WITH INCREASE IN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND DAYBREAK...SHOULD SEE QUICKER MIXING AND GUSTY WINDS BY
MID MORNING AT MOST SITES. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 67 88 70 89 / 10 10 40 20
HUTCHINSON 66 89 69 89 / 20 10 50 20
NEWTON 66 87 68 88 / 10 10 50 20
ELDORADO 66 85 68 86 / 10 10 50 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 67 87 70 88 / 10 10 40 20
RUSSELL 67 91 67 88 / 20 40 70 10
GREAT BEND 66 91 67 89 / 20 40 70 10
SALINA 67 91 69 89 / 20 20 70 20
MCPHERSON 67 89 69 89 / 20 20 50 20
COFFEYVILLE 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 30
CHANUTE 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40
IOLA 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40
PARSONS-KPPF 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1156 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOW DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE SAME AREA CO-LOCATED WITH THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES NORTHWARD TAKING THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
IT. HOWEVER WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
1/3 AHEAD OF A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES THERE. TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CAUSING THE CINH TO INCREASE SO
WILL ALLOW PRECIP. CHANCES TO DECLINE AS A RESULT. MEANWHILE
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHERE A DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. WITH LIFT INCREASING OVER THE WEST AS THE DRY LINE
MOVES IN AND 700-500MB MIXING RATIOS ALSO INCREASING...AM THINKING
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE DRY LINE. WILL HAVE HIGHER
PRECIP. CHANCES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSES LOW STILL
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SW FLOW
EXTENDING OVER A LONG FETCH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. AT
THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO JUST WEST OF THE
KS/CO STATE LINE. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY MATCHING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT/ACTIVE PATTERN AS SW FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND A LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
AND TD VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 60F WILL ALSO LINGER.
I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANY
PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING DOES GENERALLY FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WHILE CAPE PROFILES COULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE SHORT
TERM...THE BEST SHEER IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN ORGANIZED
SUPER CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST).
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON (IF NAM SOLUTION WORKS OUT)...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. I BUMPED UP POPS/WINDS
(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY)...AND ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. I CONSIDERED DOING THE SAME FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER I AM LESS CONFIDENT ON MONDAYS PATTERN AT THIS
POINT. STILL WORTH MONITORING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH MID-WEEK TO DROP TEMPS DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM WEST
TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC. ALL GLOBAL
GUIDANCE IS IN SOLD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASPECT. A WEAK POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FINE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE STRENGTH/TIMING
IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT ON THE WHOLE THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE...PROBABLY
BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT AND A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ON
LATER IN THE WEEK.
TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH
850MB TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S C...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN THE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA /TRIBUNE AND LEOTI/ APPROACHING
TRIPE DIGITS. A STRONG DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE BEST ALONG/NORTH OF
I-70...THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM DESPITE DEW
POINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE LATE
TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT CAP HOLDING AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE LIMITATIONS SO
WILL KEEP POPS SUB-50 PERCENT FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOLER TEMPS.
SOME BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE
ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COLORADO MOVING NORTHEAST COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. LIMITED CAPE WILL PREVENT STRONG T-STORMS. CHANCE FOR RAIN
INCREASES THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN
FROM THE EAST SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR KGLD. CURRENT THINKING
IS TO HAVE THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE DRY
LINE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF KGLD BY 6Z.
KMCK SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON STORMS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR
KMCK...BUT THIS MAINLY OCCURS AFTER 18Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
842 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOW DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE SAME AREA CO-LOCATED WITH THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES NORTHWARD TAKING THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
IT. HOWEVER WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
1/3 AHEAD OF A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES THERE. TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CAUSING THE CINH TO INCREASE SO
WILL ALLOW PRECIP. CHANCES TO DECLINE AS A RESULT. MEANWHILE
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHERE A DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. WITH LIFT INCREASING OVER THE WEST AS THE DRY LINE
MOVES IN AND 700-500MB MIXING RATIOS ALSO INCREASING...AM THINKING
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE DRY LINE. WILL HAVE HIGHER
PRECIP. CHANCES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSES LOW STILL
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SW FLOW
EXTENDING OVER A LONG FETCH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. AT
THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO JUST WEST OF THE
KS/CO STATE LINE. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY MATCHING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT/ACTIVE PATTERN AS SW FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND A LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
AND TD VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 60F WILL ALSO LINGER.
I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANY
PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING DOES GENERALLY FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WHILE CAPE PROFILES COULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE SHORT
TERM...THE BEST SHEER IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN ORGANIZED
SUPER CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST).
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON (IF NAM SOLUTION WORKS OUT)...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. I BUMPED UP POPS/WINDS
(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY)...AND ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. I CONSIDERED DOING THE SAME FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER I AM LESS CONFIDENT ON MONDAYS PATTERN AT THIS
POINT. STILL WORTH MONITORING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH MID-WEEK TO DROP TEMPS DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM WEST
TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC. ALL GLOBAL
GUIDANCE IS IN SOLD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASPECT. A WEAK POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FINE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE STRENGTH/TIMING
IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT ON THE WHOLE THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE...PROBABLY
BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT AND A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ON
LATER IN THE WEEK.
TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH
850MB TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S C...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN THE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA /TRIBUNE AND LEOTI/ APPROACHING
TRIPE DIGITS. A STRONG DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE BEST ALONG/NORTH OF
I-70...THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM DESPITE DEW
POINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE LATE
TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT CAP HOLDING AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE LIMITATIONS SO
WILL KEEP POPS SUB-50 PERCENT FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOLER TEMPS.
SOME BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE
ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COLORADO MOVING NORTHEAST COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. LIMITED CAPE WILL PREVENT STRONG T-STORMS. CHANCE FOR RAIN
INCREASES THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN
FROM THE EAST SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER
THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF KGLD. KMCK IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
SHOWERS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING...WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED THUNDER (THOUGH THIS CANT BE RULED
OUT). BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE REGION.
I ADDED VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AS LIFR CIGS HAVE BE OCCURRING OFF AND ON
ALL MORNING AT KGLD... AND NEARBY OB AT KITR SHOWS VIS 1/4SM. THIS
DENSE FOG HAS YET TO REACH KGLD WHERE VIS HAS REMAINED IN THE
4-7SM RANGE. GUIDANCE IS DOING A POOR JOB OF HANDLING THE GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER NIGHT PRECIP POOLING ALONG SURFACE FRONT
IN EASTERN COLORADO. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP GOING AT KGLD THIS
MORNING FOR CURRENT CIG/VIS TRENDS LOCALLY...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF VIS BEGINS TO DETERIORATE. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW
RIGHT NOW IN VIS FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
529 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSES LOW STILL
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SW FLOW
EXTENDING OVER A LONG FETCH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. AT
THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY EXTENDING FROM
NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO JUST WEST OF THE
KS/CO STATE LINE. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY MATCHING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT/ACTIVE PATTERN AS SW FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND A LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
AND TD VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 60F WILL ALSO LINGER.
I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANY
PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING DOES GENERALLY FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WHILE CAPE PROFILES COULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE SHORT
TERM...THE BEST SHEER IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST).
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON (IF NAM SOLUTION WORKS OUT)...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. I BUMPED UP POPS/WINDS
(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY)...AND ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. I CONSIDERED DOING THE SAME FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER I AM LESS CONFIDENT ON MONDAYS PATTERN AT THIS
POINT. STILL WORTH MONITORING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH MID-WEEK TO DROP TEMPS DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM WEST
TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC. ALL GLOBAL
GUIDANCE IS IN SOLD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASPECT. A WEAK POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FINE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE STRENGTH/TIMING
IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT ON THE WHOLE THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE...PROBABLY
BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT AND A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ON
LATER IN THE WEEK.
TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH
850MB TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S C...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN THE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA /TRIBUNE AND LEOTI/ APPROACHING
TRIPE DIGITS. A STRONG DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE BEST ALONG/NORTH OF
I-70...THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM DESPITE DEW
POINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE LATE
TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT CAP HOLDING AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE LIMITATIONS SO
WILL KEEP POPS SUB-50 PERCENT FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOLER TEMPS.
SOME BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE
ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COLORADO MOVING NORTHEAST COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. LIMITED CAPE WILL PREVENT STRONG T-STORMS. CHANCE FOR RAIN
INCREASES THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN
FROM THE EAST SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER
THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF KGLD. KMCK IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
SHOWERS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING...WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED THUNDER (THOUGH THIS CANT BE RULED
OUT). BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE REGION.
I ADDED VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AS LIFR CIGS HAVE BE OCCURRING OFF AND ON
ALL MORNING AT KGLD... AND NEARBY OB AT KITR SHOWS VIS 1/4SM. THIS
DENSE FOG HAS YET TO REACH KGLD WHERE VIS HAS REMAINED IN THE
4-7SM RANGE. GUIDANCE IS DOING A POOR JOB OF HANDLING THE GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER NIGHT PRECIP POOLING ALONG SURFACE FRONT
IN EASTERN COLORADO. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP GOING AT KGLD THIS
MORNING FOR CURRENT CIG/VIS TRENDS LOCALLY...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF VIS BEGINS TO DETERIORATE. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW
RIGHT NOW IN VIS FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
253 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSES LOW STILL
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SW FLOW
EXTENDING OVER A LONG FETCH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. AT
THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY EXTENDING FROM
NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO JUST WEST OF THE
KS/CO STATE LINE. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY MATCHING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT/ACTIVE PATTERN AS SW FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND A LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
AND TD VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 60F WILL ALSO LINGER.
I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANY
PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING DOES GENERALLY FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WHILE CAPE PROFILES COULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE SHORT
TERM...THE BEST SHEER IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST).
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON (IF NAM SOLUTION WORKS OUT)...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. I BUMPED UP POPS/WINDS
(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY)...AND ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. I CONSIDERED DOING THE SAME FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER I AM LESS CONFIDENT ON MONDAYS PATTERN AT THIS
POINT. STILL WORTH MONITORING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH MID-WEEK TO DROP TEMPS DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM WEST
TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC. ALL GLOBAL
GUIDANCE IS IN SOLD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASPECT. A WEAK POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FINE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE STRENGTH/TIMING
IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT ON THE WHOLE THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE...PROBABLY
BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT AND A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ON
LATER IN THE WEEK.
TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH
850MB TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S C...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN THE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA /TRIBUNE AND LEOTI/ APPROACHING
TRIPE DIGITS. A STRONG DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE BEST ALONG/NORTH OF
I-70...THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM DESPITE DEW
POINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE LATE
TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT CAP HOLDING AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE LIMITATIONS SO
WILL KEEP POPS SUB-50 PERCENT FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOLER TEMPS.
SOME BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE
ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COLORADO MOVING NORTHEAST COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. LIMITED CAPE WILL PREVENT STRONG T-STORMS. CHANCE FOR RAIN
INCREASES THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN
FROM THE EAST SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE GLD AREA
AND INTO THE MCK AREA.
CONDITIONS AT GLD SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS SHOWERS DISSIPATE AFTER
08Z. CLOUD COVER WILL GO FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED AFTER 16Z WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AFTER AFTER 21Z.
MCK SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A POSSIBILITY OF CONDITIONS GOING TO
MVFR WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE
TO PERSIST AND A HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1110 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY PUT OUT A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES EAST OF JACKSON. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA...FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER BEFORE FADING
OUT. AS SUCH...WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT TEMPORARILY HIGHER
POPS AND THUNDERS CHANCES IN THIS AREA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD/SKY
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS WITH ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
VIRGINIA. THIS FLOW HAS BROUGHT AMPLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE STATE RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE JKL CWA THE
PCPN HAS BEEN MORE FLEETING WITH JUST A FEW PINHEAD SHOWERS NOTED...
LARGELY DUE TO A WARM NOTCH AROUND 650 MBS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S...SO THE INSTABILITY IS THERE BUT ANY TRIGGERS HAVE BEEN TOO WEAK
TO SUSTAIN STORMS HERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
BEEN SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON RADAR. THE HRRR SEEMS OUT OF
TOUCH WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A POP UP SO HAVE NOT REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM
THE GRIDS. A BETTER CHANCE MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING PER MULTIPLE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
THE NAM12. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED SOME LOW...BUT RELEVANT...
POPS IN THIS PART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND VALLEY FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THESE GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF JACKSON. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWN
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT THAT WILL ACT AS A CAP AND KEEP
ALL THE BUILDUPS BELOW 12K FEET. AS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN AND THE AREAL
EXTEND WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DROP OFF AGAIN
NEAR DAWN AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTING THE GFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
UNREALISTIC DEWPOINTS THE MODEL IS GENERATING. WITH THE DEWPOINTS TO
HIGH...IT TAKES MUCH LESS CONVECTION AND LIFT TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL CHOICE HAS BEEN THE NAM AND HRRR FOR THE
FORECAST. THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE LOWS A
BIT HIGHER AND THE HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATION
ADJUSTMENTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THE FIRST OF A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA
FIRST THING TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP WITH THE FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKELY TO GET
ANY MID LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUPPORT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM
AND LIKELY DROP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHES IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK TO
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT NEAR THE AREA AGAIN...THIS WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST BY SATURDAY WITH GFS AND ECMWF
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES OFF TO THE SOUTH
WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...OPTED TO SQUEEZE A FEW DRY PERIODS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
AND LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...CIGS AROUND 4K CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WHEN THERE ARE ENOUGH CLOUDS FOR A CIG. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
AFFECT VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR DAWN MONDAY...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY
TO HAVE AN EFFECT AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
307 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED BARELY OUT OF THE AREA. THE
REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY BEFORE MOVING
BACK ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN IN THE
GRADIENT OF THETA E DISPLAY OF THE NAM AND I WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO
ACTUALLY CALL IT A WARM FRONT. THE NET RESULT WILL BE TO BRING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW AND THE ABOVE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLENDS FOR THE FORECASTS. EXPECT DRAY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL WAS PREDICTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES FROM 6 TO 9 PM
TONIGHT...HOWEVER CHOSE TO IGNORE THIS DUE TO THE LACK OF
ORGANIZATION SHOWING UP ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES CONFINED TO MAINLY TIMING
ISSUES.
ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE AREA. VERY FEW TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT SOME TERRAIN INDUCED BOUNDARIES MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WE
MAY SEE A LULL BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SKIRTING THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SHORTWAVE AFTER
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE PERIOD
FAIRLY UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY BROAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS TIMING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MAY
DIFFER QUITE A BIT. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR A WHILE WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR LOWER
VALLEY FOG AROUND NEAR DAWN TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z...WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. LOOK
FOR MORE MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A RENEWED PICKUP IN MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
156 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE TENDRILS OF FOG
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS RIGHT
ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW NUDGES PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
BRINGING A DRIER AIR MASS TO THAT PART OF THE STATE. ON SATELLITE...A
WISP OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THIS TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS
DRIER AIR AND THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST...TOO...BUT MAINLY A
RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE IS NOTED THERE AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE VARIES MORE BROADLY WITH LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS FOUND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHILE MID 50S ARE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
ONE DEEP CLOSED LOW IS MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND
ANOTHER WEAKER ONE FILLING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN
TIME...THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING ALL THE ENERGY
NORTH AND WEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE RIDGE DOES WEAKEN QUICKLY...
THOUGH...AS IT SINKS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BIT MORE MID LEVEL ENERGY TO SEEP INTO KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE
SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...
BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY...QUIET...
AND WARM DAY UNDER RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW MORE
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SEEPS BACK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES LOCATED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT/ALL AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS. DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE TONIGHT FOR
MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LATER SUNDAY THROUGH THE CWA...OTHERWISE
KEPT THEM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES CONFINED TO MAINLY TIMING
ISSUES.
ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE AREA. VERY FEW TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT SOME TERRAIN INDUCED BOUNDARIES MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WE
MAY SEE A LULL BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SKIRTING THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SHORTWAVE AFTER
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE PERIOD
FAIRLY UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY BROAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS TIMING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MAY
DIFFER QUITE A BIT. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR A WHILE WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR LOWER VALLEY FOG
AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING...SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHERE THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LOWEST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 13Z...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR MORE MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A RENEWED PICKUP
IN MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
735 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE TENDRILS OF FOG
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS RIGHT
ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW NUDGES PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
BRINGING A DRIER AIR MASS TO THAT PART OF THE STATE. ON SATELLITE...A
WISP OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THIS TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS
DRIER AIR AND THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST...TOO...BUT MAINLY A
RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE IS NOTED THERE AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE VARIES MORE BROADLY WITH LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS FOUND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHILE MID 50S ARE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
ONE DEEP CLOSED LOW IS MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND
ANOTHER WEAKER ONE FILLING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN
TIME...THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING ALL THE ENERGY
NORTH AND WEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE RIDGE DOES WEAKEN QUICKLY...
THOUGH...AS IT SINKS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BIT MORE MID LEVEL ENERGY TO SEEP INTO KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE
SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...
BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY...QUIET...
AND WARM DAY UNDER RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW MORE
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SEEPS BACK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES LOCATED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT/ALL AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS. DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE TONIGHT FOR
MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LATER SUNDAY THROUGH THE CWA...OTHERWISE
KEPT THEM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH A LOT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION DURING THE EXTENDED. STARTING AT 0Z MONDAY...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...AND A
LOW OVER LOUISIANA CONTINUING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. BEING WEDGED
BETWEEN THE TWO...THE FLOW ACROSS KY WILL FEATURE WARM MOIST
SOUTHERN AIR OFF THE GULF. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO STRETCH
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
DECENT LIFT AND A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD. DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BRING CONVECTION TO MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE
CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF TO THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NE. THIS
INCLUDES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL RUN HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR EASTERN KY...BEING ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE BEST
CONVECTION. EXPECT BY 0Z MONDAY...THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
BUT DYING OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAISED POPS BOTH SUNDAY
/SHORT TERM/ AND SUNDAY EVENING FROM PREVIOUS.
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE HUMID CONDITIONS BUT DYING
CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER RAMP UP FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED SEWARD...EDGING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND ALLOWING THE BEST MOISTURE FLOW TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL...PUTTING MUCH OF KY INTO THE MOIST
UNSTABLE FLOW. BY 12Z TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE
STATE...BRINGING LIKELY POPS INTO EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON THE EXACT TIMING OF ENTRANCE AND EXIT ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT LACKING...BUT EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE PEAK OF THE
AFTERNOON...THEN GET CUT OFF BY DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING OVERNIGHT.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
SECONDARY FRONT DEVELOPING AND FOLLOWING IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF ITS
PREDECESSOR...BRINGING YET ANOTHER BOUGHT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OVERALL MODEL UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND SET UP
WILL LEAD TO STICKING CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD. ANOTHER...WEAKER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY.
AT THIS POINT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW AND PRECIP
MOVING JUST NORTH OF KY...WITH SOME WARRANTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE GFS...WHICH THE ALLBLEND
LEANS MORE HEAVILY ON...SHOWS THIS LOW PASSING THROUGH THE
STATE...AND BRINGING A GOOD DUMP OF PRECIP ONCE MORE THURSDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON HEATING AND
PROXIMITY TO INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT
WITH THE CHANCE POPS THAT WERE GIVEN.
A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...THOUGH STILL RATHER
UNDETERMINED...WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...OR MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED CONVECTION. ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE WARRANTS LEANING
TOWARDS THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
WITH NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RATHER UNIFORM. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND DROP INTO
THE 60S OVERNIGHT. KEPT WITH A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...AS EVEN THE IMPACTING FRONTS SHOULD CORRELATE WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR LOWER VALLEY FOG
AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING...SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHERE THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LOWEST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 13Z...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR MORE MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A RENEWED PICKUP
IN MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
BRINGING A DRIER AIR MASS TO THAT PART OF THE STATE. ON SATELLITE...A
WISP OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THIS TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS
DRIER AIR AND THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST...TOO...BUT MAINLY A
RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE IS NOTED THERE AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE VARIES MORE BROADLY WITH LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS FOUND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHILE MID 50S ARE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
ONE DEEP CLOSED LOW IS MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND
ANOTHER WEAKER ONE FILLING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN
TIME...THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING ALL THE ENERGY
NORTH AND WEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE RIDGE DOES WEAKEN QUICKLY...
THOUGH...AS IT SINKS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BIT MORE MID LEVEL ENERGY TO SEEP INTO KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE
SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...
BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY...QUIET...
AND WARM DAY UNDER RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW MORE
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SEEPS BACK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT/ALL AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE TONIGHT FOR MORE
OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR LATER SUNDAY THROUGH THE CWA...OTHERWISE
KEPT THEM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH A LOT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION DURING THE EXTENDED. STARTING AT 0Z MONDAY...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...AND A
LOW OVER LOUISIANA CONTINUING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. BEING WEDGED
BETWEEN THE TWO...THE FLOW ACROSS KY WILL FEATURE WARM MOIST
SOUTHERN AIR OFF THE GULF. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO STRETCH
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
DECENT LIFT AND A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD. DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BRING CONVECTION TO MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE
CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF TO THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NE. THIS
INCLUDES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL RUN HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR EASTERN KY...BEING ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE BEST
CONVECTION. EXPECT BY 0Z MONDAY...THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
BUT DYING OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAISED POPS BOTH SUNDAY
/SHORT TERM/ AND SUNDAY EVENING FROM PREVIOUS.
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE HUMID CONDITIONS BUT DYING
CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER RAMP UP FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED SEWARD...EDGING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND ALLOWING THE BEST MOISTURE FLOW TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL...PUTTING MUCH OF KY INTO THE MOIST
UNSTABLE FLOW. BY 12Z TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE
STATE...BRINGING LIKELY POPS INTO EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON THE EXACT TIMING OF ENTRANCE AND EXIT ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT LACKING...BUT EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE PEAK OF THE
AFTERNOON...THEN GET CUT OFF BY DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING OVERNIGHT.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
SECONDARY FRONT DEVELOPING AND FOLLOWING IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF ITS
PREDECESSOR...BRINGING YET ANOTHER BOUGHT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OVERALL MODEL UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND SET UP
WILL LEAD TO STICKING CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD. ANOTHER...WEAKER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY.
AT THIS POINT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW AND PRECIP
MOVING JUST NORTH OF KY...WITH SOME WARRANTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE GFS...WHICH THE ALLBLEND
LEANS MORE HEAVILY ON...SHOWS THIS LOW PASSING THROUGH THE
STATE...AND BRINGING A GOOD DUMP OF PRECIP ONCE MORE THURSDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON HEATING AND
PROXIMITY TO INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT
WITH THE CHANCE POPS THAT WERE GIVEN.
A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...THOUGH STILL RATHER
UNDETERMINED...WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...OR MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED CONVECTION. ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE WARRANTS LEANING
TOWARDS THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
WITH NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RATHER UNIFORM. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND DROP INTO
THE 60S OVERNIGHT. KEPT WITH A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...AS EVEN THE IMPACTING FRONTS SHOULD CORRELATE WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL BE
SOME MVFR OR LOWER VALLEY FOG INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY
FROM SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHERE THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE THE
SMALLEST. SOME VALLEY AIRPORT LOCATIONS SUCH AS I39...W38...AND K1A6
COULD GET DOWN TO AIRPORT MINS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 13Z...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
848 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
848 AM UPDATE...THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM THE
NE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. DEW
POINTS WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
30S THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. THE LAST OF THE STRATUS ALONG COASTAL
WASHINGTON COUNTY SHOULD LIFT WITHIN THE HOUR. AS POINTED OUT BY
THE MIDNIGHT CREW THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS
SMALL...BUT THE HRRR DOES INDICATE A COUPLE OF VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. AT THIS TIME
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH HAS
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE
SUN RISES TODAY, BUT EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AND CLOUDS
DECREASE AS THE MORNING GOES ON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER
NORTHEAST MAINE, BUT OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER MAINE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY BE
CENTERED. COULD BE SOME FROST BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL. OPTED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORIES FOR NOW, BUT SOME MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY MORNING AND RIDGES NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM THEN DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE
BLENDED THE NAM ...GFS ...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR SKY
USED THE NAM ...GFS AND ECMWF. FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAVE USED
THE GMOS. TEMPERATURE FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING THEN NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPPER
BLEND TO INITIALIZED ALL GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THE LOW STRATUS AND PATCH FOG IS VERY RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR
VFR BY 14Z. VFR CONTINUES TON.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR
WAVES: LOW PRESSURE PERSIST OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO LATE MONDAY. FLOW TO THE NORTH
OF THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING NORTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM
2-3 FEET BUILDING TO 3-4 FEET/8-9 SECONDS. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY
SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES AROUND 1-2 FEET/9-11 SECONDS. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT THESE WAVE
SYSTEMS TO PREDOMINATE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FOISY
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/FOISY/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/FOISY/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
614 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO SKY...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS
UPDATE. FOG AND STRATUS ARE STILL MOVING ALONG THE COAST AND THE
INTERIOR. SHOWERS ARE FILLING IN SLIGHTLY FROM RANGELEY TO NORTH
CONWAY AND TO CONCORD AND MOVING WEST.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MESOLOW CENTER NEAR
MOOSEHEAD LAKE. LATEST HRRR FORECAST HAS THIS FEATURE DRIFTING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT WITH
THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND ALSO OFFSHORE AND NEAR BOSTON...
WHICH IS ALREADY OCCURRING. AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES ... MORE
SHOWERS WILL ERUPT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CHANCE
COVERAGE OVER ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH NOON OR SO BEFORE FORCING
DISAPPEARS. SAID FORCING IS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT WILL SERVE TO CUT OFF THE UPPER LOW JUST
OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WASH OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND DEW
POINTS AND WINDS TAKE A NOSE DIVE. PW VALUES DROP TO ABOUT THE 15%
PERCENTILE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY FOSTER CONDITIONS FOR FOG BUT ALSO
FROST. THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORED LOW SPOTS WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING. FROST WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL
BE ADDRESSED IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE LATER TODAY. FREEZING
FOG MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE PRODUCING SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS.
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SUNDAY WILL START OUT CHILLY BUT THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE
BY THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
WESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S EVEN CLOSER TO THE COAST ON MONDAY. LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY SOME SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DOWN INTO
MAINE.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WEATHER.
BY TUESDAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST...
BRINGING A COOLER MARINE INFLUENCE ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SO IN SPITE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL EXISTING
ALOFT... THE WARM AIR WILL NOT BE FULLY FELT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
MOST OF MAINE AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
60S. FURTHER WEST... MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARD JAMES BAY IN
CANADA... AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY EXIST A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA... WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT LATER THIS
MORNING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GUSTY N TO NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A MOIST EAST OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY BRING LOWER CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS KEEPS CONDITIONS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL. FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 5+ FT
SWELLS MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT THAT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE THIS HIGH.
EVEN SO... THE LONG PERIOD WILL LIKELY MAKE THE IMPACT OF THESE
WAVES FAIRLY MINOR AND AN ADVISORY WILL NOT LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST.
LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAIN SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP TO NEAR 25-35% BY
THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
HANES/KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
355 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MESOLOW CENTER NEAR
MOOSEHEAD LAKE. LATEST HRRR FORECAST HAS THIS FEATURE DRIFTING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT WITH
THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND ALSO OFFSHORE AND NEAR BOSTON...
WHICH IS ALREADY OCCURRING. AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES ... MORE
SHOWERS WILL ERUPT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CHANCE
COVERAGE OVER ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
FORCING DISAPPEARS. SAID FORCING IS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT WILL SERVE TO CUT OFF THE
UPPER LOW JUST OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH WILL WASH OUT WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND DEW
POINTS AND WINDS TAKE A NOSE DIVE. PW VALUES DROP TO ABOUT THE 15%
PERCENTILE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY FOSTER CONDITIONS FOR FOG BUT ALSO
FROST. THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORED LOW SPOTS WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING. FROST WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR FROST
ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SUNDAY WILL START OUT CHILLY BUT THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE
BY THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
WESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S EVEN CLOSER TO THE COAST ON MONDAY. LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY SOME SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DOWN INTO
MAINE.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WEATHER.
BY TUESDAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST...
BRINGING A COOLER MARINE INFLUENCE ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SO IN SPITE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL EXISTING
ALOFT... THE WARM AIR WILL NOT BE FULLY FELT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
MOST OF MAINE AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
60S. FURTHER WEST... MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARD JAMES BAY IN
CANADA... AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY EXIST A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA... WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT LATER THIS
MORNING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GUSTY N TO NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A MOIST EAST OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY BRING LOWER CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS KEEPS CONDITIONS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL. FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 5+ FT
SWELLS MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT THAT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE THIS HIGH.
EVEN SO... THE LONG PERIOD WILL LIKELY MAKE THE IMPACT OF THESE
WAVES FAIRLY MINOR AND AN ADVISORY WILL NOT LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...MOSTLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WEST. LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAIN SHOULD KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP TO
NEAR 25-35% BY THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
HANES/KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1220 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEEKEND WEATHER. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY WEAK SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER
OVERHEAD IS BEING OVERCOME BY A SMALL BIT OF LIFTING VIS-A-VIS A
WEAK H5 WAVE DIAGNOSED BY THE RAP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
SLIDES SOUTHWARD...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD AGAIN FADE...AS IT
HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DO NORTH OF DUBOIS. REGARDLESS...NO SITE
WILL BECOME WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST
SITES MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY AT MOST TIMES. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK
TO BE HEADED IN EXACTLY THE SAME DIRECTION AS YESTERDAY. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW JERSEY WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH WIND SHEAR FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK WITH...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS
TO EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT MOVING
OVER LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO SHOULD STILL ALLOW THE CHANCE OF
RAIN TO CONTINUE. CURRENT MODEL TIMING SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS
IN ALL LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING...SCALING BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WERE RETAINED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PD GIVEN
EXPECTATIONS OF LIMITED SOUTHWARD FRONTAL PENETRATION UNDR A
FLATTENED RIDGE SCENARIO...WITH SHRTWV PROGRESSION OVR THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY IN SPPRT.
LONG TERM TEMPS ARE PROGGED AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
THIS FLOW PTN. WPC GUIDANCE SUFFICIENTLY REPRESENTED THE
SITUATION AND WAS ONLY MINIMALLY TWEAKED.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR AND LGT WND THROUGH TNGT.
.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS/RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A MON/TUE CDFNT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEK RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL MONDAY AND A FEW
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY SOUTH OF I-94.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THAT WE/LL SEE SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK.
LATEST HRRR IS DOING A GOOD JOB SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE INCREASE WEST
OF THE LAKE CURRENTLY. IT ALSO SHOWS A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE SRN CWA THIS EVENING. I/M NOT OVERLY BULLISH ON STORMS TONIGHT.
I THINK THE BEST CHANCE...AND EVEN THAT/S NOT ALL THAT HIGH...WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW CWA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING MONDAY WHEN THE LLJ
INCREASES AND SOME LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE. WE COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT TO 6.5C/KM. THE CWA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT SO
WE/LL SEE DECENT INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND LI/S
AROUND -2C.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WEST OF THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING NEAR
THE COLD FRONT AND THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. A PLUME OF MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG ALSO MOVES EAST AND
INCREASES TO 2K J/KG BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. I
THINK THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND
INSTABILITY RAMPS UP...BUT THE HIGHEST THREAT IS LIKELY SOUTH OF THE
CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OUT SOUTH OF US FOR THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. WE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF NOTABLE WAVES TO RIDE
ALONG IT THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
THE FIRST CHC OF PCPN COME DURING THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM
ON WED. THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY TUE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
DROPPED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY WED MORNING. A DECENT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE RIDING ALONG THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TOUCH OF A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE BETTER CHCS OF RAIN TO BE FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHCS A BIT WITH LIKELY CHCS STILL
ALONG THE SRN BORDER.
WE HAVE PULLED THE THREAT FOR PCPN OUT FOR THE THU AND FRI TIME
FRAME...AND LEFT SAT DRY. ONCE THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON WED...THE
FRONT SHOULD SINK FURTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...TAKING THE
ACTIVITY ALONG IT SOUTH ALSO. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
AND PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A COOL AND DRY FLOW FROM THE NORTH INTO
FRI. TEMPS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLE IN THE 70S WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE.
THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND DURING
THE DAY ON SUN. WE WILL SEE A LONGER WAVE TROUGH DIG IN FROM THE
W/NW NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY DRAW A BIT MORE LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BRING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IT WOULD SEEM THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF MONDAY.
AS THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES IN AROUND 12Z... I EXPECT THAT
TO GENERATE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW IMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. IF THAT DOES HAPPEN I WOULD EXPECT VSBY/CIGS TO BECOME
MVFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS. I TIMED THIS THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE DEEP MOISTURE
LEAVES BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD A BE A QUIET PERIOD
BEFORE THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTER
TAF SITES LATE IN THE DAY. NOT BEING SURE ON TIMING OR LOCATION
FOR THIS I HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS.
IT WILL BE WINDY MONDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOT... GUSTS
TO 30 TO 35 ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS WILL QUIET DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY RESULTING IN HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
RIVER LEVELS ARE DECREASING SLOWLY BUT MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS... RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL PROBABLY RISE A BIT. QPF
FROM A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
757 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEK RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL MONDAY AND A FEW
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY SOUTH OF I-94.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THAT WE/LL SEE SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK.
LATEST HRRR IS DOING A GOOD JOB SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE INCREASE WEST
OF THE LAKE CURRENTLY. IT ALSO SHOWS A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE SRN CWA THIS EVENING. I/M NOT OVERLY BULLISH ON STORMS TONIGHT.
I THINK THE BEST CHANCE...AND EVEN THAT/S NOT ALL THAT HIGH...WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW CWA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING MONDAY WHEN THE LLJ
INCREASES AND SOME LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE. WE COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT TO 6.5C/KM. THE CWA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT SO
WE/LL SEE DECENT INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND LI/S
AROUND -2C.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WEST OF THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING NEAR
THE COLD FRONT AND THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CWA OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. A PLUME OF MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG ALSO MOVES EAST AND
INCREASES TO 2K J/KG BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. I
THINK THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND
INSTABILITY RAMPS UP...BUT THE HIGHEST THREAT IS LIKELY SOUTH OF THE
CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OUT SOUTH OF US FOR THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. WE EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF NOTABLE WAVES TO RIDE
ALONG IT THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
THE FIRST CHC OF PCPN COME DURING THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM
ON WED. THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY TUE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
DROPPED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY WED MORNING. A DECENT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE RIDING ALONG THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TOUCH OF A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE BETTER CHCS OF RAIN TO BE FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHCS A BIT WITH LIKELY CHCS STILL
ALONG THE SRN BORDER.
WE HAVE PULLED THE THREAT FOR PCPN OUT FOR THE THU AND FRI TIME
FRAME...AND LEFT SAT DRY. ONCE THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON WED...THE
FRONT SHOULD SINK FURTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...TAKING THE
ACTIVITY ALONG IT SOUTH ALSO. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
AND PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A COOL AND DRY FLOW FROM THE NORTH INTO
FRI. TEMPS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLE IN THE 70S WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE.
THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND DURING
THE DAY ON SUN. WE WILL SEE A LONGER WAVE TROUGH DIG IN FROM THE
W/NW NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY DRAW A BIT MORE LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BRING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
I AM ON THE FENCE WITH REGARD TO THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY
FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY DURING THE DAY... IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.
CONDITIONS START OUT SOLID VFR WITH JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS... BUT AS THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTH... ARRIVING IN TAF SITES BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z... IT WOULD
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT
MY CONFIDENCES IN THAT IS LOW SO I PUT VCTS TO COVER THAT. ONCE
THE DEEP MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SOLID FORCING THROUGH.
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM IS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SO IT THEN THAT I PUT SHOWERS WITH
VCTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME. AFTER THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES OUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE LAYERED CLOUDS IN THE AREA LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
OTHER SIGNIFICANT ASPECT TO MONDAY IS STRONG WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...25 TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 500 FT AGL AND 3000 FT AGL. SO
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY RESULTING IN HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
RIVER LEVELS ARE DECREASING SLOWLY BUT MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS... RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL PROBABLY RISE A BIT. QPF
FROM A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
713 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL HANDLING
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF WI...WHERE
THEY HAD FEWER CLOUDS /INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY/. MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ARE ABUNDANT IN THIS AREA...AND AS EXPECTED
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF AWAY FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI.
GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.5 IN OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 180-220 PERCENT OF NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR 1.6 TO 1.8IN. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT OR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN
WI...AROUND 45MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR AREA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A BIT
STRONGER...EVEN THROUGH INSTABILITY LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO MORE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FAR E UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 10-15KTS...TEMPS
HAVE ROSE NEAR 80F INLAND FROM LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON...AND HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT /MAINLY AT RACO/. THE WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z...AND WAS TAKEN
OFF THE TOP NEWS EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO NEAR THIS
AREA...BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC IS KEEPING MUCH IF ANYTHING FROM
ACCUMULATING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...NOT ONLY AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 50S.
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR W WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY...LIKELY AROUND SE LAKE SUPERIOR/E UPPER
MI. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE
SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID 70S OVER THE W HALF...AND LIKELY FAR E UPPER MI ON MONDAY.
LOOK FOR MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RESIDE OF THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z /NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THERE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST/...BEFORE EXPANDING E THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AFTER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...FCST WILL HINGE UPON HOW FAST THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN OR HOW FAST IT IS FORCED E BY NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS W AND
CNTRL NAMERICA. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WET WEATHER HERE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA...THEN DRY WEATHER MID
AND LATE WEEK AS APPROACHING MID/UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A TYPICAL
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN AS ICE FILLED HUDSON BAY AND THE CHILLY
GREAT LAKES ENHANCE SFC HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT. IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...TEMPS THIS WEEK SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM EARLY JUNE
NORMALS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TEMPS SOMEWHAT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST WEATHER IN THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
BEGINNING MON NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR OR PERHAPS FAR WRN UPPER MI AND THEN ON INTO NRN ONTARIO BY
TUE MORNING. BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL
BE DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE AS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA AND MIDLEVEL DRYING ARRIVES. THIS DRYING IS MORE PRONOUNCED
OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS...MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN
MON AFTN MOVING INTO UPPER MI EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE W MON NIGHT. ALONG WITH APPROACH
OF THE ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROF...SOME SHRA WILL
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE W. AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPS E ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SHRA CHANCES WILL SPREAD E TUE
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING MAY FURTHER AID EXPANSION OF SHRA TUE OVER
THE E. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER OVER
THE E...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS EARLY IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH ALMOST NO MLCAPE INDICATED...WILL LEAVE THUNDER
MENTION OUT. BULK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY
JUST N OF UPPER MI...SO STEADIER RAIN SHOULD PASS BY TO THE N.
HOWEVER...THE KEWEENAW MAY GET BRUSHED BY THE MORE PERSISTENT SHRA
TUE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
CHILLY/MISERABLE AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND
BRISK WNW WINDS OFF COLD LAKE SUPERIOR. FOG THAT WILL BE EXPANDING
AND BECOMING MORE DENSE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/MON AND PROBABLY
DEVELOPING ON NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKES WHENEVER WINDS ARE ONSHORE. THE FOG WILL CLEAR OFF THE
LAKES TUE.
LINGERING SHRA SHOULD END FROM SW TO NE TUE AFTN AND TUE NIGHT AS
MID/UPPER TROF SLOWLY EDGES E. WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR WED/THU AS MID/UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
-SHRA/SPRINKLES AT SOME POINT LATER WED/EARLY THU DUE TO ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE ECMWF IS STRONGEST
WITH THIS FEATURE...FOLLOWED BY THE GEM. THE GFS IS WEAKEST AND
SHOWS NO IMPACT FROM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BACKING OFF ON
THIS WAVE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/PARTLY CLOUDY FCST. ALSO...CONCERNS
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SHORTWAVES TRACKING E ACROSS THE
CNTRL CONUS AND BRINGING A SHRA THREAT TO THE FCST AREA ARE
BASICALLY GONE NOW AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW DEPARTING
TROF/APPROACHING RIDGE SUPPRESSING SHORTWAVES. OTHERWISE...GRADIENT
NRLY WIND DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING S FROM NRN MANITOBA/HUDSON
BAY/NRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD A CHILLY DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON WED.
EXPECT 50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH MANY LAKESIDE LOCATIONS PROBABLY
HOLDING IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WELL IN THE INTERIOR...
EXPECT 60S TO LWR 70S. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW SIDE
OF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR
MASS. THU NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES
RIDGE OVERHEAD. TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS MIGHT SLIP INTO THE UPPER
30S.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...FCST FOR FRI THRU THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS W AND CNTRL NAMERICA CAN
EITHER PUSH RIDGE EASTWARD OR SUPPRESS IT. USUALLY THERE IS A BIAS
TO BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO QUICKLY IN THE LONGER RANGE...SO PLAN TO
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN REPRESENTED BY THE
ECMWF FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER
TO LINGER FRI/SAT AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
TO HUDSON BAY. TRAILING...DECAYING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE
MAY BRING SOME -SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI AS EARLY AS LATE FRI. WILL BE
SOMETHING TO LOOK FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR SUN AS IT APPEARS TROF WILL FORCE RIDGE
EASTWARD. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER FRI/SAT...BUT
OVERALL...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
LOOK FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND FOG CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
NORTH LAKE MICHIGAN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK MONDAY TO
PUSH INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AT IWD AND CMX. BEST CHANCE OF VIS FALLING BELOW LIFR
WILL BE AT CMX FROM 06Z THROUGH MID MORNING...WHERE LIGHT WINDS MAY
TURN MORE UPSLOPE/EASTERLY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FALL BELOW 3MI VIS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE W HALF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE E HALF. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS W LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS A LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S
JAMES BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON
BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-
240>244-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
929 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
DENSE FOG IS MAKING A STRONG PUSH INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING AS OBSERVED ON AREA WEB CAMS. THIS VERIFIES WELL WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING A PUSH OF FOG INLAND TONIGHT.
THE APPROACHING MESO-LOW TO THE SW IS PRODUCING RAPID PRESSURE
FALLS TO THE WEST AND ALLOWING THE WINDS ACROSS WRN LS TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE N/NE AND DRAWING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE IN ACROSS THE
TWIN PORTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE
ZONES AND ALSO THE LAND ZONES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND AROUND THE
TWIN PORTS.
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV TRACK NEWD INTO THE AREA AND THE
UPPER S/W LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 500MB S/W WILL BE THE
MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ALLOW THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT ATMOSPHERE TO BE TAPPED...AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MDT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HVY RAIN IN ISO/SCT T-STORMS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ST. LOUIS RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. A SIGNIFICANT DUMP OF RAIN WAS SEEN THIS
EVENING AROUND HIBBING...WITH OVER 2 INCHES IN VERY SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS WATER...COMBINED WITH THE RAIN THAT FALLS TONIGHT
IN THE ST. LOUIS BASIN WILL DRAIN QUICKLY IN THE SATURATED SOILS
AND CAUSE THE RIVER LEVEL TO RISE RAPIDLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE SOGGY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST SAW LIGHT RAIN OR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE TODAY AS
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE IRON RANGE/MN ARROWHEAD. THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
AS A SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND TRACKS OVER NORTHERN
MN THROUGH MONDAY.
THE PERIOD FOR BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL
ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCT THUNDER IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES INTO NW WISCONSIN. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE THE
DRY SLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY LIMIT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THERE IS A CORRIDOR OF LARGE MID LEVEL OMEGA ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE LOW THAT LIFTS OVER NE MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
OFF ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN AND
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER GOING OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
SHIFT EAST THE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A BAND OF RAIN...CLOUDY
AND COOL CONDITIONS WHICH CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
RAIN CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY TO SEE GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...WITH SOME SUNSHINE APPEARING FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN
HALF BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
70S AS WESTERLIES BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES TO FALL
OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE RIDGE HELPING
TO PUSH A BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SOME MODELS ARE PUSHING A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AND HAVE ONLY SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR NOW. HAVE HIGHS RISING INTO
THE LOW 70S BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS STILL IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH VCTS AROUND HIB ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FOG AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY
MAKE A PUSH OVER THE HILL THIS EVENING AND IMPACT DLH AROUND
03/04Z WITH 1/2SM VSBYS OR LESS. AS A MESO-LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SW...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS WILL INDUCE A E/NE WIND OVER THE HEAD
OF THE LAKE AND ALLOW THE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO PUSH INLAND.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE -SHRA INCREASE AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE
WITH EMBEDDED TS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
FROM BRD TO HYR LATE MON MORNING...BUT REMAIN WET AROUND INL AND
HIB AS THE LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EWD. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 51 61 50 72 / 80 80 60 30
INL 55 62 51 73 / 80 80 70 20
BRD 61 70 55 76 / 80 70 50 10
HYR 61 72 56 72 / 80 80 50 30
ASX 49 65 50 70 / 80 80 60 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MNZ012-019>021-025-026-
033>038.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ020-021-037.
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ001.
LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
706 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
STILL STUCK IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN TO START THIS PERIOD...THOUGH
WE WILL FINALLY START TURNING THE CORNER IN TERMS OF ROOTING THIS
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OUT OF HERE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...THERE ARE TWO KEY FEATURES THAT WILL IMPACT THE MPX
CWA...THE FIRST IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER SE SODAK THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MPX
AREA AS IT WORK NE THIS EVENING. THE SECOND FEATURE IS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH BACK BY THE BLACK HILLS THAT WILL BRING A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LIGHTER AND LIKELY MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF SW
MN INTO THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
OUT THE GATE...WE HAVE SEE AN E-W ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS NRN IA WITHIN A ZONE OF CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT IS
GETTING FORCED UP AND OVER AN OUTFLOW INDUCED BOUNDARY. BIG QUESTION
FOR THE MPX AREA IS HOW WILL THIS IMPACT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY
FROM ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THIS WILL KEEP THE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE TRAINING IS MORE
LIKELY...BUT MESOANALYSIS HAS SHOWN THAT MLCAPES ACROSS WRN MN HAVE
RECOVERED TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OUT IN WRN MN WHERE THE SUN
HAS BRIEFLY MADE AN APPEARANCE. AS THIS CLEARING WORKS EAST...DO
EXPECT THE CAPE RECOVERY TO WORK EAST WITH IT AS WELL...SO LINE
CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE NEAR SIOUX FALLS WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO
SRN MN. FOLLOWED THE HRRR TO WORK THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AS IT HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON IT ALL
AFTERNOON AND IT MATCHES UP WELL WITH HOW THE HRRR BRINGS ANOTHER
SURGE OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO MN AHEAD OF THE
SODAK SHORT WAVE. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE ABOUT TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE IS WE ACTUALLY HAVE SHEAR TODAY...SO WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH A MAINLY WIND THREAT WITH THIS LINE AS IT WORKS ENE.
THERE IS GOOD NEWS THOUGH ABOUT THE ADDITION OF SHEAR TODAY...AND
THAT IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AS WE
HEAD FARTHER OUT IN TIME...SO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...NSSL Q3 RADAR ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT A LARGE SWATH OF OUR AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH PARTS WESTERN STEARNS COUNTY UP CLOSER TO 8 INCHES OF
RAIN SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTED THIS NEXT
BATCH OF STORMS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE...RECENT WET CONDITIONS
HAVE OUR FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS AT INCREDIBLY LOW LEVELS AT THE
MOMENT...WITH CURRENT 1 HR AND 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DOWN IN
THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.
THIS SECONDARY WAVE BACK IN NODAK IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE AS
TO HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITH IT...BUT EXPECT IT TO INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE NW CWA LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. GOING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...THIS WILL WILL TRAVEL
MORE OR LESS DOWN I-94...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDS. FORTUNATELY...ANY ACTIVITY WE
SEE MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHTER /AS PWATS BEGIN TO RECEDE FROM
THERE CURRENT LEVELS AROUND 1.75 INCHES...WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. SO FOR THAT
REASON...CONTINUED TO LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE THROUGH 18Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
BY MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT... AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME NEED TO KEEP POPS GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
LINGERING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.
AFTER THAT... WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO KEEP THINGS DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... AT THAT POINT
WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEP
BACK NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA... CLOSER TO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY... FRONTOGENESIS... AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER... CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PCPN FARTHER NORTH GIVEN
SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE 700-500MB LAYER AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED NORTH AND SATURATE THINGS NEAR 700MB.
SO... ALLOWED FOR CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SCOOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
NEXT SYSTEM AFTER THAT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY AS FLOW TURNS A
LITTLE MORE ZONAL. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THEN HEADS MORE EASTERLY BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEAST AGAIN. MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF ANY LEAD
SHORT WAVES AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT LOOKS
LIKE MN/WI WILL BE BACK IN UPPER SW FLOW LATE THIS WEEK...MERITING
CHANCE POPS. WITH UPPER LOW NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE BORDER... THIS
WILL NOT BE AN EXCEEDINGLY WARM PERIOD...AND IN FACT...TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. ONCE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
NEXT WEEKEND...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 70 NEXT WEEKEND OVER CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WISC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND STORMS THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE LATER
TONIGHT WHEN SEEMINGLY NONSTOP PARADE OF STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN
END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH LOBE OF ENERGY EXTENDING SE INTO SWRN MN... AND THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. THIS SHOULD TAKE A FEW
HOURS TO TRAVERSE NORTHEAST THROUGH ANY GIVEN LOCATION. SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE IN WARM ADVECTION AREA
WHICH IS STRONGEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN ATTM.
ONCE THIS GOES BY...LINGERING MOISTURE AND DECREASING GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT. LOW MOVES JUST NE OF OUR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH WNW FLOW TOMORROW MORNING TO THEN HELP SCOUR OUT SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTERNOON HEATING AND COLD POOL COMING FROM THE
NORTHWEST COULD HELP SET OFF SOME MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL MN.
KMSP...FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT MORE STORMS WILL AFFECT KMSP THIS
EVENING... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1-2 MILES
FOR A PORTION OF THE TWO HOUR PERIOD THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY HIGH ON MVFR CEILINGSS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS... BUT WE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS OR MVFR FOG DUE TO LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO GENERATE MORE SCT SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND E-SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ041>045-
047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...TDK/TRH
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
611 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
Overall pattern has changed to a more progressive and unsettled
regime through the upcoming week. While there will no doubt be
periods when there will be no precipitation the proximity of a
couple frontal boundaries and the vagaries of the models further out
in time will make it difficult to go dry in most periods.
Short term concerns will focus on the evolution of upstream
convection over NE and KS and any severe threat over northwest MO. A
number of Hi Res models such as the HRRR and local WRF as well as
the latest NAM and GFS track the current developing NE MCS eastward.
At the same time activity blossoms southward towards central KS
where a strengthening southerly low-level jet feeds moderately
unstable air under an increasingly diffluent flow aloft. Too many
models favor this evolution to ignore. These models propagate the KS
convection southeast this evening which is supported by the Corfidi
vectors. As the the low level jet veers overnight it will maintain
the KS MCS as it moves into southwest MO. The convection in between
these two core MCSs will likely weaken as it moves into the western
CWA late this evening. The severe threat will be confined to
northwest MO this evening with an isolated severe wind gust
possible.
By sunrise the main portion of the convection is expected to be near
or have exited the eastern and southern counties. However, can`t
rule out scattered convection bubbling back up during the morning
and afternoon hours as the southwesterly low-level jet will enhance
convergence along any residual outflow boundaries as well as a weak
cold front entering the CWA. Temperatures will be problematic due to
any convection as well as residual cloud cover.
Monday night into Tuesday could see scattered convection pop-up
wherever the weak cold front stalls, which favors the southern
counties. Shortwave riding aloft spreads eastward across the Central
Plains on Tuesday allowing an elevated warm mixed layer to spread
east while the front retreats northeast as a warm front. As has been
noted for the last couple of days the combination of moderate to
strong shear coupled with strong instability and the added low-level
shear along/north of the warm front signal the increasing likelihood
of severe storms along and north of the warm front. Models have been
trending lifting the warm front further north over the past couple
of runs, pushing the convection and severe threat from northern MO
into IA.
Wednesday could see a trailing cold front settle south through the
CWA, but not before temperatures could reach 90 over the southern
half of the forecast area. This boundary will become the focus for
any additional rain chances. The GFS and ECMWF have settle this
front to near the MO/AR border by Thursday before it stalls.
Confidence has improved on this occurring and have started to lower
PoPs across at least northern MO for Thursday and Friday. Convective
chances increase as we head into next weekend as another moderately
strong upper trough sweeps through the Rockies and forces the front
north as a warm front, allowing rain chances to increase over the
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
Storms extending from southeast Nebraska into central Kansas cont to
push east this evening. Using time/distance tool and hi-res model
data have timed storms into the VC of STJ at 03Z and affecting the
terminal between 04Z-08Z. At MCI and MKC storms will be in the VC at
04Z and affect the terminals between 05Z-09Z. Vsbys with these storms
may become IFR dropping to 2-3SM at times with cigs becmg MVFR
dropping to 2-3kft in storms. Storms will exit the terminals between
08Z-09Z however MVFR cigs will persist through most of the morning
hours before scattering out btn 15Z-17Z. Winds will be out of the
south tonight around 15kts with stronger gusts possible in storms. As
the cold front approaches early tomorrow morning winds will veer to
the southwest btn 10-15kts. By tomorrow afternoon the boundary will
be in the VC of the terminals and winds will veer to the west btn
5-10kts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1129 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
Scattered thunderstorms have had more coverage this afternoon than
yesterday. These storms are occurring in an axis of 925-850mb
moisture convergence that shows up well in the latest runs on of the
RAP. Still expect the storms to gradually diminish early this
evening as the RAP shows the aforementioned low level forcing
weakening at the same time we will lose daytime heating. Expect the
rest of the night to be mainly dry with the potential for some
patchy fog toward morning. MOS lows in the mid-upper 60s still look
reasonable given current dewpoints.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
This discussion is probably starting to sound like a broken record,
but once again, not much change from the prev forecast.
Thru the weekend, expect much of the same as the past couple of
days. TSRA will develop mid to late morning and continue into the
evening before dissipating. Have therefore continued a persistence
forecast thru the weekend for POPs and temps.
Mdls are in good agreement bringing a cdfnt into the region on Mon
as an upper trof ejects into the Plains as the upper ridge finally
breaks down. This fnt shud bring TSRA to portions of the area.
Latest mdls suggest stronger upper forcing further swd than the prev
couple of days. Have therefore continued higher POPs as more than
enuf moisture and heating shud be available for convective
development. Did not spread the likely POPs too much further S due
to uncertainty of how far the fnt will drift S given the better
forcing remaining further N.
Mdl solns begin diverging much beyond Mon and have continued a
fairly persistent forecast for temps for now. Have also kept POPs in
the low to mid chance range due to differences among mdl solns.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
MVFR fog will be the main hazard overnight, especially where
rainfall occurred on Friday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the heat of
the day again on Saturday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Only a trace of rain was reported at KSTL today, so not real
excited about fog developing at the terminal. Will see a repeat on
Saturday with showers and thunderstorms developing after 18Z.
Light southeast wind to continue.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
833 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE A MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING...TO PARE BACK POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE...BUT ARE DISSIPATING OFF WITH THE SETTING SUN.
OTHERWISE...THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE...WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER ON TAP OVERNIGHT. AAG
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE UNTIL A MORE BONAFIDE CHANCE
OF STORMS RETURNS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH EVEN THEN THE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAY ONLY COME IN AN ISOLATED DOSE.
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SEEN ACROSS
THE AREA AT MID AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS MARGINAL
BUOYANCY DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. IN THE MEAN-
TIME...SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AS
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND PARK CITY THIS AFTERNOON /WHERE WE HAD
PEA-SIZE HAIL REPORTED EARLIER/. WE GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS ALONG
WITH MOST 12 UTC GUIDANCE AND MORE RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS...SUCH
THAT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 30S IN SOME WESTERN
VALLEYS LIKE AROUND LIVINGSTON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.
MON...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S F IN MOST AREAS GIVEN MUCH MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE THAT TODAY. WE FOLLOWED THE 12 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED/
MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF MOS OUTPUT TO BUILD FORECAST HIGHS SINCE THAT
GUIDANCE OFTEN DOES WELL COME SUMMER...AND IT HAS VERIFIED WELL ON
SOME DAYS RECENTLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT...PERHAPS SLIDING AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS BY
MON NIGHT...BUT THAT CHANCE IS DRIVEN BY ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND
SO THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS IS VERY LOW THROUGH MON NIGHT.
TUE...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
IS APT TO BE AUGMENTED SOMEWHAT FROM LOCAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...SO
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN COULD BE DISRUPTED IF THERE
IS ENOUGH DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OVER WESTERN SD
AND NORTHERN NEB EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TUE AS SOME 12 UTC MODELS
SUGGEST. EVEN SO...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
YIELD MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG...AND MORE LIKE 1000 J/KG IF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT STYMIED TOO MUCH. WE ARE CARRYING
40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES OF STORMS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT OVER MOST OF
THE AREA /A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER PRIOR FORECASTS/. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE 12
UTC GUIDANCE AND 09 AND 15 UTC SREF RUNS FOR THE 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR
TO BE LESS THAN 30 KT ACROSS THE AREA AND IF THAT IS THE CASE THEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN MARGINAL AND TRANSIENT SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOST DAYS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES MAY COOL TO
BELOW-AVERAGE VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SHOWS A MEAN 500-MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES IN
THAT LARGER-SCALE PATTERN. THE FIRST OF THOSE WAVES SET FOR WED IS
IN THE BEST POSITION TO HAVE ACCESS TO DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORTED
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THAT WAVE MAY BE IN THE DAKOTAS BY PEAK HEATING
WED AFTERNOON WHEN IT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO FOSTER STORMS.
A STRONGER WAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION THU INTO FRI MAY END UP
BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND WE DID
DECIDE TO LOWER FORECAST TEMPERATURES THU THROUGH SAT USING THE 12
UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WE ACTUALLY CHOSE TO STAY ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF THAT CONSENSUS EVEN THOUGH WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THOUGH.
THAT WAS IN RESPECT TO 1/ MAINTAINING SOME FORECAST CONTINUITY AND
2/ THE VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE EARLY JUNE SUN ANGLE WILL BE
GOOD ENOUGH TO WARM HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IF THE SHOWER COVERAGE
IS NOT TOO GREAT. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING AFTER 03Z
WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE NIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM COLUMBUS WEST TO
LIVINGSTON MONDAY AFTERNOON. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/074 051/077 053/076 052/071 049/068 047/071 052/079
21/B 24/T 53/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 038/074 045/075 045/073 043/070 042/068 042/069 044/077
23/T 35/T 43/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 046/076 049/079 053/077 051/073 048/071 048/072 049/080
21/B 24/T 43/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
MLS 048/073 050/077 055/077 055/073 048/068 049/072 051/079
21/U 13/T 44/T 33/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 047/074 050/074 053/076 053/073 049/067 050/072 049/078
21/U 14/T 44/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
BHK 046/068 047/073 052/074 052/071 047/066 047/068 048/073
21/B 12/T 44/T 43/T 33/T 33/T 22/T
SHR 043/074 047/074 048/073 048/070 044/068 045/069 046/076
21/B 24/T 43/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
827 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE REMAINING KANSAS COUNTIES FROM THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND UPDATED THE FORECAST. CONTINUING TO
MONITOR THE APPROACHING LINE OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA...AS THEY APPEAR TO HAVE THE MOMENTUM GOING TO REACH AT
LEAST THE WESTERN BOUNDARIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HRRR SEEMS TO
BE DOING PRETTY WELL HANDLING THIS LINE OF STORMS THUS FAR...
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING THIS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AROUND 4-6Z...AND STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THIS MODEL
GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
STORM EVOLUTION BEHAVED PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
CONCENTRATING OVER KS ZONES AND LESS-SO NORTH OF THE STATE LINE.
HAVE ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO BE CANCELLED EARLY
FOR ALL 24 NEB COUNTIES...BUT WILL HANG ONTO 6 KS ZONES AT LEAST A
LITTLE BIT LONGER WITH ACTIVE STRONG STORMS IN THAT AREA...AND
SEVERE STORMS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
MAIN CHANGE IN FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS EVENING FROM EARLIER
THINKING IS THAT IT NOW APPEARS THAT NEW ROUND OF NORTHWEST NEB
CONVECTION MAY HAVE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF REACHING AT LEAST THE
WESTERN CWA BEFORE WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE BY THE TIME IT GETS
HERE...DECIDED IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO PUT IN A FEW HOURS OF
SLIGHT POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF AN ORD-ORLEANS LINE IN THE
WESTERN CWA FROM 9PM-MIDNIGHT. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL OBVIOUSLY BEAR CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO MAKE SURE IT DOESN/T PUSH INTO THE CWA ANY FARTHER OR
WITH MORE INTENSITY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES AREA...SHOULD IN
THEORY BE MOST FAVORED TO BE DONE WITH CONVECTION FOR THE NIGHT
PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF WESTERN NEB STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AS WAS QUITE WELL-ANTICIPATED...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE AT TIMES...HAVE BEEN ONGOING WITHIN MAINLY THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY
SLOWLY BUT SURELY EXPANDING MORE-SO INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE-CRITERIA REPORTS HAVE BEEN RATHER FEW SO
FAR...IN PART OWING TO A "MESS" OF STORM SCALE
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS DISRUPTING INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM MAINTAINING
OR REACHING PEAK POTENTIAL INTENSITY...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL NONETHELESS PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE TIME BEING...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL 30 COUNTIES THROUGH 10
PM...BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA IS ALREADY BEHIND THE MAIN...BACK
EDGE OF STORMS AND THE NORTHERN CWA APPEARS TO BE VERY WORKED OVER
BY COOLER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...SO WILL PROBABLY START TRIMMING
AWAY SOME OF THESE COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. RAINFALL-WISE...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES
BEYOND THE LIKELY BRIEF URBAN/STREET FLOODING TAKING PLACE IN
VARIOUS LOCATIONS...AND RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE
OVERESTIMATING REALITY BY AROUND ONE-THIRD BASED ON LIMITED
GROUND TRUTH. NONETHELESS...A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA HAS ALREADY
SEEN OR WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF 1-2 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ROUGHLY I-80 AND THE KS STATE
LINE.
TURNING TO THE METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION AS OF 20Z/3PM...THE MAIN
PLAYER IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS IS THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOCAL AREA
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ELEVATED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT AT THE 700MB LEVEL HAS BEEN FEEDING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF NEB/NORTHWEST KS ALL DAY...WHICH LED TO AT LEAST A
SLIGHTLY-EARLIER ONSET OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION...BUT ALSO LIKELY HELPED TO KEEP MUCH OF AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN CWA FROM REALIZING A MORE EXTENSIVE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. AT THE SURFACE...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT AN EXTENSIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD POOL
FROM THE WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS STILL IN QUESTION...ITS
STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE MUCH OF THE NEB CWA IS SEEING
A SLOWLY-WANING SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE NOTABLE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL ORGANIZED WIND THREAT MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 ALONG THE APPARENT SQUALL LINE THAT APPEARS TO BE
ORGANIZING ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS WILL
BE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...WHERE MUCH OF OUR KS ZONES ARE
CURRENTLY REALIZING 1000-2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE
PRESENCE OF GENERALLY 30-45KT OF 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
WOULD ALSO BE THE PART OF THE CWA STILL FAVORED FOR A POSSIBLE
BRIEF TORNADO THREAT...WHETHER IT BE WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE CELLS
THAT CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES FOR AWHILE...OR WITH POSSIBLE
NOTCHES/BRIEF SPIN UPS ALONG THE BACK-END TRAILING SQUALL LINE.
JUST CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THIS THREAT GIVEN AROUND 20KT OF
LOW-LEVEL 0-1KM SHEAR IN THE AREA.
AS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS EVENING...SEE
LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE WITH THE SOLUTION PRESENTED BY THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM MODELS...NAMELY THE 19Z HRRR. AS A RESULT...A GENERALLY
AT-MOST MARGINALLY SEVERE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS AND DEPART THE NORTHERN CWA...WHILE A HIGHER
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EITHER FROM
A CONTINUATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION...OR OTHER AT LEAST SEMI-
DISCRETE STORMS THAT MIGHT MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM JUST WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THAT ANY CONVECTION JUST NOW MOVING
INTO FAR NORTHWEST NEB DOES NOT SURVIVE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR
AREA...AREAS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LINES/CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE DONE WITH ALL CONVECTION FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...EVEN MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA
SHOULD SEE THE MAIN COVERAGE OF STORMS DEPART TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST GENERALLY DURING THE 8PM-10PM TIME FRAME. JUST IN CASE
SOME STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE
NORTHWARD INTERFACE OF THE LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BASED NEAR 850MB...LINGERED SOME SMALLER
POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES ALL THE WAY THROUGH 09Z...BUT
THIS MIGHT BE PLENTY GENEROUS. OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING PREVAILING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ONCE
THE WIND FIELD RECOVERS FROM CONVECTIVE-EFFECTS. NUDGED DOWN LOW
TEMPS SLIGHTLY...TONIGHT...RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTHWEST TO MID
60S FAR SOUTHEAST.
BRIEFLY TURNING TO THE MONDAY DAYTIME HOURS...THIS IS STILL ONE OF
THE ONLY FORECAST PERIODS TO STILL FEATURE NO MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK...AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREAD THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
THE NEXT ONE THAT TAKES AIM ON THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT
COULD STILL BE A CLOSE CALL AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY
AFTER...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE FOCUSED AT LEAST 1-2
COUNTIES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA MORE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY 10-15 MPH NORTHWEST
BREEZES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ASSUMING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS...AIMING FROM LOW-MID 80S NEB ZONES
AND MID-UPPER 80S KS ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
ALOFT: HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING HIGHS CONT TO DOMINATE THE HEMISPHERE
OVER THE BERING SEA AND FAR ERN CANADA. THE STAGNANT LONGWAVE
PATTERN BETWEEN OVER THE USA IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES THAT HAVE PUT
US BACK INTO THE PATH OF MORE ACTIVE WX. SPECIFICALLY...THE NEWLY
DEVELOPED RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN HEIGHTS AT OR
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WRN/CNTRL USA.
THE PAST THREE CYCLES OF EC/GFS/GEM/UKMET ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THRU TUE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROF. THE NEXT RIDGE ARRIVES WED FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROF WED NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER AK WILL BE FORCED SE AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY MID-WEEK
AND THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WILL SLOW IT DOWN WITH
HEIGHTS FALLING HERE. THAT MEANS A COOL DOWN AND PROBABLY THE
COOLEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE MID MAY.
SURFACE: THE TAIL END OF THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVES THRU TODAY WILL
LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL BE NEAR THE KS-NEB BORDER BY DAWN
TUE. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER CO...WITH A DRYLINE
INTENSIFYING AND MIXING INTO WRN KS...CREATING A TRIPLE POINT WITH
THE FRONT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK E ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER WED NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO THE REGION WED...WITH THE
FRONT SAGGING TO THE KS-OK BORDER. BY THU AN OCCLUDING LOW WILL BE
OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A WARM FRONT FCST TO LIFT THRU THE FCST
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ITS COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
THERE IS THEN SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST S AND E
OF THE FCST AREA.
HAZARDS: WE ARE LOOKING A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU-SAT. DID NOT LOOK
AT POTENTIAL INTENSITY DUE TO ON-GOING EVENT AND TUE POTENTIAL.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
TUE: PLEASE CONT TO FOLLOW SPC SEVERE WX OUTLOOKS AND THE HAZARDOUS
WX OUTLOOK /HWO/ AND THIS PRODUCT FOR WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE A SERIOUS
SEVERE WX THREAT. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO BE UPGRADED IN LATER SPC
OUTLOOKS.
LLJ-INDUCED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED COULD
INITIATE STORMS DURING THE MORNING HRS N OF THE WARM FRONT. IT
APPEARS STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THRU THE DAY AS
LLJ INTENSIFIES...PROBABLY FORMING AN MCS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
FORMING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EML. THE STORMS WILL REINFORCE THE
WARM FRONT AND BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE TSTMS SHOULD
ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE...WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT. WHILE SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MCS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE THE THREATS WITH THESE AFTERNOON STORMS.
USE OUR HIGH TEMPS OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH CAUTION. THEY WILL DEPEND
ON CLOUDS/RAIN. WE CURRENTLY HAVE 77-84F ALONG AND N OF I-80...BUT
MUCH OF THIS AREA COULD END UP JAMMED IN THE LOW-MID 70S. ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...HIGHS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. STOCKTON
AND PLAINVILLE WILL BE CLOSE TO 100F. WINDY S OF THE WARM FRONT!
09Z SREF CONTS TO LOOK THREATENING WITH MLCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG.
FALLING PRES TO THE W WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS BACKED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CURVATURE IN FCST HODOGRAPHS.
TUE NIGHT: ON-GOING TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE AND GROW INTO AN
MCS THAT PROPAGATES E WITH THE SFC LOW. SO TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END
HERE.
WED: BREEZY IN COOL AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD
DEVELOP OVER S-CNTRL NEB...MOST VIGOROUS N OF I-80. CANT RULE OUT A
SHWR OR A COUPLE SPRINKLES N OF HWY 92.
THU: COULD SEE A COULD SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CAP.
FRI: SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SAT: TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL. SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL CONTS.
SUN: PROBABLY DRY UNDER HIGH PRES. CONTINUED COMFORTABLY COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH SHOWER/STORM-FREE CONDITIONS. SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL PREVAIL
FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION GENERALLY NO MORE THAN
10-15KT...BUT RIGHT AWAY THIS EVENING DIRECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE AND POSSIBLY GUSTY DUE TO EFFECTS OF EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY CAVEATS TO THIS FORECAST
ARE 1) COULD STORMS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEB HOLD
TOGETHER AND REACH KGRI LATER THIS EVENING AND 2) COULD THERE BE
ANY LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
RAINFALL. FOR NOW HAVE DEEMED THE PROBABILITY OF BOTH OF THESE
THINGS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT...BUT THEY BEAR WATCHING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
944 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MCS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA HAS COMPLETELY ROBBED THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM OF MOISTURE. RADAR IMAGERY OF THE RETURNS THAT
WHERE MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...THE
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE.
THUS...WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WITH THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE IN THE AREA LIKELY STALLING. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DID INCREASE
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS HERE.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE LIMITED
FORCING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA IS LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND SHOULD WEAKEN OR
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. FORCING AGAIN STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNRISE ON
MONDAY...ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA (AND NO CHANGES TO POPS/WX WILL BE
MADE AFTER 12Z MON).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL. GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLING TO LATCH
ONTO ONE SOLUTION UNDER COMPLEX SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SET-UP...BUT
LATEST RAP/HRRR/LOCAL WRF STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIMILARITIES AND
WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SOLAR.
SFC LOW CENTER STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST NE/
SOUTHEAST SD WITHIN BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SD WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WRAP AROUND SFC LOW IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY JUST CLIP THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH
MUCH OF MN LAKES COUNTRY RECENTLY RECEIVING 2 TO 6 INCHES...WILL
KEEP FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO CANCEL IF
CONVECTION TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO SET-UP SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE MINOT TO BISMARCK AND DEVILS LAKE TO JAMESTOWN CORRIDOR.
STRONG RISING MOTION THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DUE TO MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLET AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW-MOVING BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO DO NOT THINK AN EXTENSION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH IS NECESSARY. LATE TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL AND WET AS SHOWERS SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
AND EAST WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD/WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S
WITH THE LAST OF THE RAIN EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SOME FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS PACIFIC STORMS MOVE
EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES GIVING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS AMONG
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE PRETTY CLOSE BUT JUST OFF ENOUGH SO THAT WE HAVE
CHANCE OF PRECIP EVER DAY THU-SAT. AT THIS POINT HARD TO PICK OUT
A MODEL OF CHOICE SO WILL UTILIZE THE BLEND TOOL. TEMPS LOOK TO
RUN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES AND LOWERING
CIGS. USED THE RAP GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF THESE CONDITIONS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTHING WITH THIS UPDATE. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WITHIN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL SOUTH OF THIS REGION (THE TRACK OF THE
850MB LOW)...AS PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE (RAP...NAM...HRRR).
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...AND MERGING
UPPER WAVES WILL PROVIDE RAIN POTENTIAL. STORM MOTIONS ARE
SLOW...AND PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED. THUS...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...SCATTERED AREAS MAY STILL
RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.
WE HAVE BEEN GETTING MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WITH THE
ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE WESTERN FA...AND WITH THE SHOWERS NEAR
I-94. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY HAS WEAKLY ELEVATED THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
PARAMETER. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT FUNNEL
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A WEAK TORNADO. ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO CONVEY THIS THREAT...WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
900PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL. GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLING TO LATCH
ONTO ONE SOLUTION UNDER COMPLEX SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SET-UP...BUT
LATEST RAP/HRRR/LOCAL WRF STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIMILARITIES AND
WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SOLAR.
SFC LOW CENTER STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST NE/
SOUTHEAST SD WITHIN BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SD WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WRAP AROUND SFC LOW IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY JUST CLIP THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH
MUCH OF MN LAKES COUNTRY RECENTLY RECEIVING 2 TO 6 INCHES...WILL
KEEP FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO CANCEL IF
CONVECTION TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO SET-UP SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE MINOT TO BISMARCK AND DEVILS LAKE TO JAMESTOWN CORRIDOR.
STRONG RISING MOTION THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DUE TO MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLET AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW-MOVING BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO DO NOT THINK AN EXTENSION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH IS NECESSARY. LATE TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL AND WET AS SHOWERS SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
AND EAST WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD/WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S
WITH THE LAST OF THE RAIN EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SOME FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS PACIFIC STORMS MOVE
EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES GIVING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS AMONG
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE PRETTY CLOSE BUT JUST OFF ENOUGH SO THAT WE HAVE
CHANCE OF PRECIP EVER DAY THU-SAT. AT THIS POINT HARD TO PICK OUT
A MODEL OF CHOICE SO WILL UTILIZE THE BLEND TOOL. TEMPS LOOK TO
RUN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES AND LOWERING
CIGS. USED THE RAP GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF THESE CONDITIONS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ003-023-024-027>032-
040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
547 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR...NAMELY THE 20 AND INCOMING 21
UTC RUNS...HAVE AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING BROKEN LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THUS...WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR POPS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER BETWEEN 02-04 UTC...SUSTAINED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THE CONVECTION MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AS IT CROSSES
THE BORDER. THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST A CONGEALING LINE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT...FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE STORMS
BEGIN TO PROPAGATE INTO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 06-07 UTC...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT
WITH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS. ACROSS
THE EAST MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT THINKING OF LOW/NIL THUNDERSTORM
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE WITH SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE MODEST. A
MORE POTENT SYSTEM IS FORMING IN MONTANA WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MESOSCALE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
BRING A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT AS A QLCS IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 04-06Z. WILL HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING WINDS
LATER TONIGHT WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST SUNDAY WITH A MORE LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
STATE...EXITING THE DEVILS LAKE AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER (HAIL/TORNADOES) IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. KEPT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MENTION OF SHOWERS DURING THIS
TIME...AND EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 1.00 INCH
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD.
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE REGIME WITH
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND KEEPING
NORTH DAKOTA UNDER A MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THUS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID-WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...LOOKING AT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS MAINLY 45 TO 55.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ARE
FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 02-04 UTC...AND HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO KISN AND KDIK TO HIGHLIGHT
THE BEST TIMING AND EXPECTED THREAT AT THIS TIME. STORMS MAY
APPROACH KMOT AND KBIS LATE...AND WILL MENTION AS VCTS FOR NOW.
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KBIS AND
KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA/JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
624 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FG FORCING IS SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST AND HOLDING TOGETHER WHILE THE SOUTHERN END
SPREADING EASTWARD IN COVERAGE...SOON TO MERGE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF SD. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ALONG THIS
NORTHERN BAND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO HAS KICKED OUT INTO PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA AND WILL ARRIVE
OVER SOUTHERN CWA BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT TO INTERACT WITH SFC BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHEN
SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA. 06Z GFS NOW
SHOWING TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS (ONE ALONG SFC BNDRY AND OTHER ALONG
MID LEVEL FG BOUNDARY)...AS WELL AS LATEST HRRR AND 06Z NAM. ALSO
HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN GFK AND DVL...AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN ND. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE PLACEMENT OF
REDEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CURRENT
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED OR SHIFTED TO THE EAST AS H850 LLJ TURNS
MORE WESTERLY AND WEAKENS BY 12Z. THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY IS
GENERALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE OVER RED LAKE ND WESTERN POLK COUNTY...BUT THE MAIN
FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY WILL BE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. OVERALL MODELS TARGET SERN HALF OF CWA BUT
EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS STILL QUITE VARIABLE. THROUGH
18Z...GENERALLY WILL FOLLOW THE 4KM WRF AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TODAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN SD WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND UP INTO
WADENA...POLK...OTTER TAIL AND GRANT COUNTIES. DO EXPECT DRY AREA
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CARRINGTON-LAKOTA- CAVALIER LINE TO FILL
IN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND...AS BAND OF MID
LEVEL FG FORCING SHIFTS EAST (AND AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH).
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK AND BEST CHANCE FOR
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE THERE REMAINS SOME LLJ INFLUENCE. BEYOND 18Z MODELS VARY
ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIP. OVERALL PREFER A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH
KEEPS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHERN VALLEY FAIRLY DRY.
TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY OVER NORTHWESTERN HALF OF CWA AND
CHALLENGE WILL BE PLACEMENT OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO VARY ON LOCATION. GFS ACTUALLY DRIES OUT MOST OF AREA IN THE
06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME WHEREAS THE NAM IS QUITE BULLISH OVER MY
EAST CNTRL ZONES AND THE GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TARGET THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE MAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SUNDAY...THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH AS A SECOND UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WILL
LIKELY SEE A BREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
SHOWERS THEN LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CNTRL DAKOTAS SUN
AFTN. OVERALL TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY THE TIME THIS SECOND WAVE MOVES OUT ON
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN DAKOTAS AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER
FROM THE SW. SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER MINNESOTA WITH INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP GOING
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA AND LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE NAMDNG GUIDANCE IS GOING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ND MON...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INVERTED
TROUGH...COULD SEE RAINFALL IMPACT TEMPS TO THAT DEGREE AND WILL
TREND TEMPS DOWN BUT NOT QUITE THAT DRASTIC YET AS MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR DAY 3.
MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS AND WE SHOULD SEE PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND GEM ARE QUICKER
(GEM IS THE FASTEST) IN ENDING PRECIP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE
GFS/ECMWF HOLD ON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ALL BUT MY SOUTHEAST...SO CHANGED PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. LOOK FOR ACTIVITY
TO DECLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TUESDAY.
FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...IT SHOULD DRY OUT ON TUE WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FAR EAST MAINLY TUE MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE DRY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT IN ALL AREAS. BY THU AND
FRI...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH A
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WE HAVE HAD OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
FOG AT DVL WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING AND SITE SHOULD BE
VFR BY NOON. GFK/TVF WILL SEE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY AS SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN ND AND ADVECT INTO NW
MINNESOTA. FAR AND BJI WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTM...WITH
CELLS ARRIVING BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE PLACEMENT OF
REDEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CURRENT
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED OR SHIFTED TO THE EAST AS H850 LLJ TURNS
MORE WESTERLY AND WEAKENS BY 12Z. THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY IS
GENERALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE OVER RED LAKE ND WESTERN POLK COUNTY...BUT THE MAIN
FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY WILL BE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. OVERALL MODELS TARGET SERN HALF OF CWA BUT
EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS STILL QUITE VARIABLE. THROUGH
18Z...GENERALLY WILL FOLLOW THE 4KM WRF AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TODAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN SD WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND UP INTO
WADENA...POLK...OTTER TAIL AND GRANT COUNTIES. DO EXPECT DRY AREA
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CARRINGTON-LAKOTA- CAVALIER LINE TO FILL
IN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND...AS BAND OF MID
LEVEL FG FORCING SHIFTS EAST (AND AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH).
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK AND BEST CHANCE FOR
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE THERE REMAINS SOME LLJ INFLUENCE. BEYOND 18Z MODELS VARY
ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIP. OVERALL PREFER A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH
KEEPS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHERN VALLEY FAIRLY DRY.
TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY OVER NORTHWESTERN HALF OF CWA AND
CHALLENGE WILL BE PLACEMENT OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO VARY ON LOCATION. GFS ACTUALLY DRIES OUT MOST OF AREA IN THE
06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME WHEREAS THE NAM IS QUITE BULLISH OVER MY
EAST CNTRL ZONES AND THE GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TARGET THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE MAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SUNDAY...THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH AS A SECOND UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WILL
LIKELY SEE A BREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
SHOWERS THEN LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CNTRL DAKOTAS SUN
AFTN. OVERALL TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY THE TIME THIS SECOND WAVE MOVES OUT ON
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN DAKOTAS AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER
FROM THE SW. SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER MINNESOTA WITH INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP GOING
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA AND LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE NAMDNG GUIDANCE IS GOING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ND MON...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INVERTED
TROUGH...COULD SEE RAINFALL IMPACT TEMPS TO THAT DEGREE AND WILL
TREND TEMPS DOWN BUT NOT QUITE THAT DRASTIC YET AS MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR DAY 3.
MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS AND WE SHOULD SEE PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND GEM ARE QUICKER
(GEM IS THE FASTEST) IN ENDING PRECIP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE
GFS/ECMWF HOLD ON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ALL BUT MY SOUTHEAST...SO CHANGED PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. LOOK FOR ACTIVITY
TO DECLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TUESDAY.
FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...IT SHOULD DRY OUT ON TUE WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FAR EAST MAINLY TUE MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE DRY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT IN ALL AREAS. BY THU AND
FRI...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH A
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WE HAVE HAD OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SET OF TAFS...ATTEMPTED TO PROVIDE DETAIL TO
THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS...WITH JUST A GENERAL FORECAST AFTER 9 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES
INCREASING SATURDAY MORNING.
AT 04Z...THERE WAS AN AREA OF LIFR CONDITIONS JUST WEST OF THE
VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE DVL BASIN. KDVL IS NOW INDICATING
FEW004...AND ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR KDVL BEFORE
SUNRISE (THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE AGREES). WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF
THESE CONDITIONS ADVECT INTO THE VALLEY SITES...AT THIS POINT THAT
PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1136 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
LOOKING AT THE CONUS RADAR IMAGERY THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF
RAINFALL ARE OBSERVED...WITH ONE OVER THIS FA...ANOTHER IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. EACH OF THESE AREAS
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH ARE BEGINNING TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH THE 2-5 INCH AMOUNTS REMAINING
ISOLATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES
FROM THE LAKE OF THE WOODS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ND INTO THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAS
REACHED WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S ACROSS SERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS
A BROAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND EDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER BASIN. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD STREETS
FEEDING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN SD AND SOUTHERN MN AND INTO THE
LOW LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BAND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PUSHING 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES. ONGOING
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN
SD INTO ERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT... WHILE DEEPER SFC BASED CONVECTION STEADILY FILLS IN
EAST OF THE FRONT THROUGH SERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN. SURFACE TO
2 KM VGP VALUES APPROACH .2 TO .3 ACROSS SERN AND EAST CENTRAL ND
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SUPERCELL TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL THOUGH HEAVIER RAINFALL AND LOW TILT STORMS WILL ACT TO
REDUCE THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT. A MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA... WITH RAINFALL CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF AN INCH OR GREATER RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH BOTH ELEVATED
AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AGAIN EXPECTED TO FIRE FROM THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHUD
SHIFT OVER SERN ND AND FURTHER INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
MN BY SATURDAY EVENING. PWATS ON SATURDAY SHUD AGAIN APPROACH 1.5
INCHES SO THAT AREA RAINFALL OF AN INCH OR GREATER ARE LIKELY...
MAINLY ALG AND EAST OF A BAUDETTE-FOSSTON-GWINNER LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT SOME BREAK IN THE RAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A THIRD ROUND OF RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA... WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH OVER EASTERN PACIFIC/PACIFIC NORTHWEST BECOMES ZONAL
BY DAY 7. ALSO LONG WAVE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS THE FAST SOLUTION.
THE DGEX AND NAM WERE STRONGER AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS, AND THE ECMWF
WAS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING NORTH WITH SOUTHERN STREAM AND SHIFTING
SOUTH WITH NORTHERN STREAM. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTH WITH
NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF TO START AND THE GFS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DECREASED POPS FOR TUE. WILL TRIM BACK POPS IN FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR
TUE NIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTH AND EAST WED AND WED NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR TUE AND DECREASED ONE, TWO,
AND THREE DEGREES FOR WED, THU, AND FRI RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SET OF TAFS...ATTEMPTED TO PROVIDE DETAIL TO
THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS...WITH JUST A GENERAL FORECAST AFTER 9 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES
INCREASING SATURDAY MORNING.
AT 04Z...THERE WAS AN AREA OF LIFR CONDITIONS JUST WEST OF THE
VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE DVL BASIN. KDVL IS NOW INDICATING
FEW004...AND ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR KDVL BEFORE
SUNRISE (THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE AGREES). WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF
THESE CONDITIONS ADVECT INTO THE VALLEY SITES...AT THIS POINT THAT
PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...
STALLING IN OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE...MOSTLY ADJUSTING ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
TO MATCH OBS AND ACCOUNT FOR THE RATHER MOIST AIR COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY AS 18Z MODELS SHOWING A
BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING A LITTLE EARLIER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...PSEUDO WARM FRONT IN NE KY THIS AFTERNOON IN
DEW POINT GRADIENT ON WEST SIDE OF MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS. STILL
LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HTS TRI STATE VCNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
OHIO...BUT FCST RAP SOUNDINGS STILL A BIT TOO DRY...NEED TO BE A
BIT FURTHER WEST.
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AT 925 MB ON 12Z NAM GOES NORTH INTO OHIO THEN
BRUSHES NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM ALSO DEPICTING AN 850
MB TROF AXIS PASSING THRU WITH WINDS VEERS FROM SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. YET...CAN NOT JUMP
ON THE 70 TO 80 POPS TONIGHT FOR PLACES LIKE HTS AND CRW.
CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL IN OUR CHANCE RANGE IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. SOME WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXS
DEPICTED ON NAM AND GFS RIDING NE THROUGH OHIO ON MONDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES ON MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP OUR FORECAST DEW POINTS AOA GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT AND WHEN EVAPORATING DEW ETC 12Z TO 14Z MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAY STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION TO START EARLY ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO TRIED TO
SHOW A PERIOD OF LOWER POPS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. BEST LINE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH VORT MAX/RIPPLE AT 500MB. THE FRONT
CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY JUST CLEAR TO THE CWA TO THE
SOUTH...BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.5 THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SO DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER FLOW SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS
MOVING...SO TRAINING WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN THERE. DECENT
SHEAR ALSO IN PLACE...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL...WITH WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE IN HWO AT THIS POINT.
BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN FAIRLY MINIMAL CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE OSCILLATING SURFACE
BOUNDARY STALLED IN THE VICINITY AND SEVERAL WAVES...BOTH SURFACE
AND ALOFT...CROSSING THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS ON WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE...SO STAYED
PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE BOUNDARY FINALLY HEADING TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...SO STRAYED FROM WPC THERE GOING WITH A LOWER POP
FORECAST. THEN HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SURFACE WAVE AND 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS. GFS SHOWING DECENT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...AND ALSO PWATS ABOVE 1.5 FOR THURSDAY...SO
WILL MENTION STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AFTERNOONS STRATOCU IS QUICKLY SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING.
WILL SEE MID CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS BLOW OFF
AS THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST SPREADS EAST. WITH HIGHER DEW POINT
AIR MOVING IN WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH MID DECK COMING IN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING EAST
THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING STRATOCU.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF FOG MAY VARY DEPENDING
ON THICKNESS OF CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H =
HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M =
MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW:
TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 06/02/14
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/JR
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
408 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY.
COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIFT QUICKLY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL STAY IN CONTROL THRU
TONIGHT...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MILD AFTERNOONS...AND
COOL NIGHTS. WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED DOWN SLOPING
WARMING OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. NIGHT WILL COOL DOWN DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS UNDER WEAK OR CALM
FLOW.
SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAVORABLE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS NEARBY BKN UNDER EASTERLY FLOW.
BLENDED THE ALL BLEND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH THE MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET AT THE OUTSET OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST REGION. INHERITED MAX TEMPS SUNDAY APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM GENERALLY LOWER/MID 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS...TO THE
UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AXIS
OF RETURN LLVL MOISTURE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO INCH CLOSER TO THE AREA. DID NUDGE SKY COVER UP JUST A LITTLE TO
REFLECT A GENERAL PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MANY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM PREV FCST WAS TO INSERT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MENTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF NE KY AND
EXTREME SE OHIO FOR JUST A FEW HOURS ROUGHLY 20Z SUN - 00Z MON.
THOUGH THE LACK OF AN APPARENT TRIGGERING MECHANISM IS THE
WILDCARD...WITH GOOD ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1400 J/KG AND PWATS UP
TO 1.20-1.30 IN THIS AREA...CAN`T OPERATIONALLY SAY THAT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT POSSIBLE. ALSO...STORM MOTION IS TO THE
NORTHEAST...SO IT`S FEASIBLY POSSIBLE THAT SOMETHING WHICH FORMS
FURTHER WEST OR SW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MAKES IT INTO THE TRI-STATE
AREA BEFORE RUNNING OUT OF STEAM. BUT AGAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FOLKS WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SUNDAY AND
REMAIN DRY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST WITH REGARD TO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALSO PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. THE
RESULTANT SW FLOW ALOFT FINALLY ALLOWS BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES. CLOUDS ARE A BIT TRICKY
ON MONDAY...SUSPECT THE AREA WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS BUT ALSO
SEE SOME PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WV
LOWLANDS. AGAIN...NO READILY-APPARENT TRIGGER MECH AT THE SFC TO KEY
ON FOR MONDAY BUT A VORT MAX PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
SHOULD HELP PROVIDE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SE
OHIO. MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO INHERITED POPS...WITH MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
BY THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME AND LIKELY POPS NEARER THE VORT MAX NEAR
AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOW/MID 80S
LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD. WILL PROBABLY SEE A CONVECTIVE LULL IN
PRECIP COVERAGE DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST VORT MAX
EARLIER MON. AFTER 06Z TUE...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS DOES
ANOTHER S/W RIPPLE / VORT MAX...SO SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST BTWN 06Z - 12Z TUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH READINGS GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
FOR THE LOWLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS. MODELS
THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER...WITH ECMWF TAKING FRONT WELL OUT OF
CWA...WHILE GFS DROPS IT JUST SOUTH...BUT THEN BRINGS IT BACK NORTH
AS SURFACE LOW CROSSES KANSAS. BASED ON TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
PATTERN IN THE APPALACHIANS...TEND TO THINK THE OSCILLATING FRONT OF
THE GFS IS THE BETTER SOLUTION...BUT WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY...STAYED
CLOSE TO WPC FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. BLENDED WPC TEMPS INTO
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE EASTERLY FLOW CLOUD
SQUEEZE SOME MOISTURE AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE MVFR LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TO ALSO AFFECT BKN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES...CALM SFC WINDS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LESS THAN
15 KNOTS PER THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE DROPPING TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES. CONSEQUENTLY...LIKE THE IDEA OF KEEPING IFR
CONDITIONS UNDER DENSE FOG CONFINED ALONG THE DEEPER PROTECTED
VALLEYS SUCH AS CRW...EKN AND CKB TOWARDS 12Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR
MIST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST PLACES THROUGH 12-13Z.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AFTER 13Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND INTENSITY OF RIVER AND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...AND MVFR CEILINGS ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/31/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
151 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY.
COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NECESSARY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY
WAS PUSHING WESTWARD INTO OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...WINDS BECOME NE/E...TEMPERATURES FALL AND DEWPOINTS
RISE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS
WERE SEEN.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
WEST...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST IT WILL GO. THE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN THE MOIST COOL AIR FLOWING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST IS GENERALLY IN SYNC WITH THIS THINKING...SO ONLY TWEAKS
WERE MADE.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND DO NOT SEE ANY
REAL NEED TO MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN JUST AN AFTERNOON SHOWER TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXITING FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE...ITS
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THRU SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE OHIO AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH SOME COOL
ADVECTION IN THE GENERALLY EAST FLOW...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
AND DOWNSLOPING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR THE LOW LANDS
SATURDAY. BUT IT WILL BE COOLER AT NIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIR...LACK
OF CLOUDS...AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL WELL
DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME RIVER AND VALLEY FOG AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY
BE THE LIGHT AND STILL MOIST LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW THAT COULD BRING
IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD BREAK UP RATHER QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS LOW LEVEL
WINDS TURN FROM EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE. THAT COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE
LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BY BLENDING IN BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF TO HIGHS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS. MODELS
THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER...WITH ECMWF TAKING FRONT WELL OUT OF
CWA...WHILE GFS DROPS IT JUST SOUTH...BUT THEN BRINGS IT BACK NORTH
AS SURFACE LOW CROSSES KANSAS. BASED ON TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
PATTERN IN THE APPALACHIANS...TEND TO THINK THE OSCILLATING FRONT OF
THE GFS IS THE BETTER SOLUTION...BUT WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY...STAYED
CLOSE TO WPC FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. BLENDED WPC TEMPS INTO
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE EASTERLY FLOW CLOUD
SQUEEZE SOME MOISTURE AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE MVFR LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TO ALSO AFFECT BKN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES...CALM SFC WINDS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LESS THAN
15 KNOTS PER THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE DROPPING TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES. CONSEQUENTLY...LIKE THE IDEA OF KEEPING IFR
CONDITIONS UNDER DENSE FOG CONFINED ALONG THE DEEPER PROTECTED
VALLEYS SUCH AS CRW...EKN AND CKB TOWARDS 12Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR
MIST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST PLACES THROUGH 12-13Z.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AFTER 13Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND INTENSITY OF RIVER AND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...AND MVFR CEILINGS ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/31/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JSH/JMV
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
948 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHTNING ACTION AND COLD TOPS FROM SATELLITE
IN KANSAS CONVECTIVE LINE SHIFTING TO SOUTH-
WEST PORTION OF THE LINE. HOW MUCH OF MCS AND
HOW FAR PRECIP PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
STILL IN QUESTION. HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT HRRR
AND LOOKING UPSTREAM FEEL CONFIDENT RAISING
POP FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF I44. SEVERE THREAT
ABOUT SPENT BEFORE REACHING TSA CWA OVERNIGHT.
GW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A MCS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY IN
THE BVO/TUL/RVS AREAS WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS DECAYING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS ADVANCING
ACROSS KS AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE AND
THEN SLIDE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN OK. THE
LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAVE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT IDEAS AS TO
HOW THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE UKMET KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE BORDER.
BASED ON SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THE DATA...WILL ELECT TO
MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS INSTEAD OF LIKELY POPS. NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED
BY WEAKER INSTABILITY OWING TO THE TIME OF DAY.
MID LEVEL TEMPS AND HEIGHTS RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS
SPREADS UP INTO OUR AREA. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...THE WEATHER
LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED WITH MCS ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 72 91 72 92 / 60 50 10 10
FSM 71 88 70 91 / 10 30 10 10
MLC 71 88 71 89 / 20 10 10 10
BVO 70 89 70 92 / 70 50 10 10
FYV 66 84 67 86 / 30 50 10 10
BYV 68 84 67 87 / 30 50 20 10
MKO 70 88 70 90 / 30 40 10 10
MIO 69 87 70 89 / 50 60 10 10
F10 71 89 71 90 / 30 20 10 10
HHW 71 87 70 88 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
932 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE MCS OVER KANSAS WILL FACE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL SLOW AND
LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE COMPLEX. STILL...IT APPEARS TO
HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO OVERCOME THE CAP AT LEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ONE OR TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES OF OKLAHOMA. SHORT-RANGE
MODELS ARE SUPPORTED BY ANALYSES OF WIND SHEAR...CIN...AND
INSTABILITY IN SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA
BY MORNING. BY THE TIME IT REACHES CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...IT IS
UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE.
THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...ARE
HANDLED ABOUT AS WELL AS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
WE MAY MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS LATER TO DEAL WITH THE EFFECTS OF
THE MCS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. MVFR OVERCAST IS LIKELY IN
THUNDERSTORMS AREAS AND SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
OK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS...SUPERCELLS DUE TO STRONG
0-6 KM SHEAR 40 TO 55 KT...WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND PERHAPS INTO THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.
COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOW AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AS THE CAP MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PANHANDLES WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST...AROUND +14C.
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN KANSAS. THESE STORMS
COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 7 PM. VERY LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS...THOUGH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LOW DUE TO HIGH CLOUD BASES. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGESTED THIS
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR.
LATER THIS EVENING...MORE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS/HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HINT THAT A LARGE MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER KANSAS...POSSIBLY
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS STATE LINES. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS COMPLEX WILL GO AS
CAPPING IS STRONGER OVER OKLAHOMA COMPARED TO KANSAS. THIS COMPLEX
MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 8 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WOULD HELP TO KEEP THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZED...POSSIBLY
INTO A BOWING SQUALL LINE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY TRY TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. EXPANDED
RAIN CHANCES A BIT SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
ON MONDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER EAST OF A ALVA TO OKLAHOMA
CITY TO ADA LINE MAINLY IN THE MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND
CAP STRENGTHENS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG. OTHERWISE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE CENTURY MARK MAY BE REACHED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA
AND A WEAK BOUNDARY AND WEAKER CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF STORMS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 90 71 93 / 30 20 10 10
HOBART OK 69 93 71 95 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 95 73 96 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 67 92 68 98 / 20 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 67 87 71 92 / 70 30 20 10
DURANT OK 72 87 72 90 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
722 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. MVFR OVERCAST IS LIKELY IN
THUNDERSTORMS AREAS AND SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
OK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS...SUPERCELLS DUE TO STRONG
0-6 KM SHEAR 40 TO 55 KT...WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND PERHAPS INTO THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.
COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOW AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AS THE CAP MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PANHANDLES WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST...AROUND +14C.
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN KANSAS. THESE STORMS
COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 7 PM. VERY LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS...THOUGH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LOW DUE TO HIGH CLOUD BASES. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGESTED THIS
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR.
LATER THIS EVENING...MORE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS/HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HINT THAT A LARGE MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER KANSAS...POSSIBLY
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS STATE LINES. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS COMPLEX WILL GO AS
CAPPING IS STRONGER OVER OKLAHOMA COMPARED TO KANSAS. THIS COMPLEX
MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 8 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WOULD HELP TO KEEP THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZED...POSSIBLY
INTO A BOWING SQUALL LINE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY TRY TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. EXPANDED
RAIN CHANCES A BIT SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
ON MONDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER EAST OF A ALVA TO OKLAHOMA
CITY TO ADA LINE MAINLY IN THE MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND
CAP STRENGTHENS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG. OTHERWISE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE CENTURY MARK MAY BE REACHED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA
AND A WEAK BOUNDARY AND WEAKER CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF STORMS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 90 71 93 / 30 20 10 10
HOBART OK 69 93 71 95 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 95 73 96 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 67 92 68 98 / 20 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 67 87 71 92 / 70 30 20 10
DURANT OK 72 87 72 90 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
643 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A MCS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY IN
THE BVO/TUL/RVS AREAS WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS DECAYING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS ADVANCING
ACROSS KS AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE AND
THEN SLIDE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN OK. THE
LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAVE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT IDEAS AS TO
HOW THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE UKMET KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE BORDER.
BASED ON SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THE DATA...WILL ELECT TO
MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS INSTEAD OF LIKELY POPS. NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED
BY WEAKER INSTABILITY OWING TO THE TIME OF DAY.
MID LEVEL TEMPS AND HEIGHTS RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS
SPREADS UP INTO OUR AREA. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...THE WEATHER
LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED WITH MCS ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.
LACY
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE
BY MIDWEEK...WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM...AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NC
PIEDMONT EARLIER...AND ARE GRADUALLY OOZING THEIR WAY SOUTH ALONG
THE I-77 CORRIDOR. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY (TO 50-70
PERCENT) IN THESE AREAS. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL
DIMINISHMENT OF INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...SO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE AREA.
1015 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS STEADILY WANED ACRS THE FA EXCEPT
FOR A CLUSTER OF CELLS WHICH HAVE CONTINUED TO BUBBLE ALONG A LINE
FROM THE NW CORNER OF NC SEWD INTO THE PIEDMONT TRIAD. THIS SEEMS TO
BE THE FRONT...PER SFC OBS AND MSLP ANALYSIS. WHILE COVERAGE REMAINS
RATHER STEADY WITHIN THE CLUSTER...EACH NEW GENERATION APPEARS TO BE
WEAKER THAN THE LAST. HRRR NOW REDEVELOPS ACTIVITY OVER THE I-77
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NEW RUN JUST COMPLETED OF OUR LOCAL
WRF-ARW DROPS ACTIVITY STEADILY SWD THRU THE ERN HALF OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TMRW MRNG. THESE SCENARIOS ARE PLAUSIBLE THOUGH I
WONDER HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALLY LEFT GIVEN ALL THE ACTIVITY
EARLIER. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCHC OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
AS OF 230 PM FRI...ONE IS HARD-PRESSED TO IDENTIFY THE REMAINS OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE STRUNG OUT NW TO SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...SUCH THAT IT IS HARD TO SAY IF THIS FEATURE WILL
EVEN PLAY ANY ROLE IN ORGANIZING ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SUBTLE CHANGES ARE NOTED AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...WHILE THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY. THE MODELS
WANT TO KEEP SOME COVERAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE OWING TO
A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...SO THE FCST RETAINS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS DO A MORE CONCERTED EFFORT IN
IDENTIFYING A SW TO NE GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON
SATURDAY THAT REPRESENTS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME IDENTIFIABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER BETWEEN NE GEORGIA
AND WESTERN SC...WHICH SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY...TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC WHICH SHOULD HAVE A STRONGER NE WIND
ADVECTING COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION
AND KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM GA AND THE CAROLINAS...TO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SE TX...AND A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW WILL BE
WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER TX
FILLS...AND THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BEHIND IT. AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP MOIST
UPSLOPE LIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...SUPPORTING CONTINUING
PRECIPITATION THERE....WHILE LINGERING INSTABILITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER INTO GA ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
THE CAROLINAS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS WITH COOLER SURFACE
AIR MOVING IN.
MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...ALLOWING WARM MOIST ADVECTION FORM THE GULF TO
REACH NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
SPREAD EAST AS A RESULT...AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AS THE COOLER AIR MASS SETTLE
IN...UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN WARM ADVECTION ENSUES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
DEAMPLIFIED PATTERN...WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...
AND MOORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE REMNANTS
OF A COLD FRONT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTOLYTIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION LONG BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY LEAVES THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER DRYING BEHIND IT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER PERSISTING IN
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR MID SUMMER NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE TERMINAL ARE
LIKELY TO PASS OVER THE AIRFIELD AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
AND A TEMPO FOR SUCH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. TOYED WITH THE NOTION OF
ADDING AN IFR VISBY TO THE TEMPO...BUT SHOWERS ARE TRENDING DOWN IN
INTENSITY...SO HAVE OPTED FOR MVFR FOR THE TIME BEING. DID INCLUDE A
TEMPO FOR AN IFR CIG BETWEEN 09-12Z THIS MORNING...AS IMPROVING
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING IN AREA OF IFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL NC TOWARD KCLT BY SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WHILE A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE NC PIEDMONT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT NE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER NIGHT OF CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY OWING
TO VERY MOIST ENVIRONS WITHIN A REGIME MARKED BY VERY SUBTLE
FEATURES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH AN MVFR FORECAST AT MOST
TERMINALS...BUT WITH GENEROUS USE OF TEMPOS FOR IFR/LIFR IN
LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED FRIDAY (KHKY/KGSP/KAND). IN
FACT...KHKY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED A LIFR CIG...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...OWING TO A WEAK E/SE
UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...DIDN/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
CATEGORICAL OCCURRENCE. AT KAND/KGSP...STUCK WITH A 2SM WITH SCT
LIFR CLOUDS WITHIN A TEMPO...BUT WOULD NOT AT ALL RULE OUT PERIODS
OF LIFR CIGS. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL PASS NEAR KHKY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL. MORE
STABLE/DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT KHKY AND SURROUNDING AREAS
LATER THIS MORNING...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE UPSTATE SC AND NC MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS...WHERE VCTS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED.
OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL DRYING WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...
WITH MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 85% HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 87% HIGH 97% HIGH 92% HIGH 81%
KAVL MED 75% HIGH 80% HIGH 98% HIGH 95%
KHKY MED 73% MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 86% HIGH 85% HIGH 89% HIGH 85%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 84% HIGH 85% HIGH 91%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL
CONDENSED FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER. SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CURRENT BOUT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ENSUING COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...TO
LOWER 60S EAST. THE FRONT WILL PULL COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
NEXT BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BETTER POTENTIAL
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THAT SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN
COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE SYSTEM.
HIGHS AGAIN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES...IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE A TROUGH BEGINS TO
NUDGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TOWARD THE WEEKEND. NET EFFECT FROM THIS
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESS CERTAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THOUGH CONSENSUS BRINGS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...LEANING MORE HEAVILY TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CURRENTLY SEEING SOME MVFR TO IFR STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG FORM
TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE DRY AIR
ADVECTING IN WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW...AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS OR FOG...SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON MENTIONING IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TOMORROW OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST...GUSTING
20 TO 30 KTS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ039-040-054>056-
061-062-066-067-070-071.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
089-090-097-098.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
020>022.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
106 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
-SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY AFFECTING CSV WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD WESTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH VCSH AT CKV/BNA INTO EARLY EVENING.
AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY TO DIRECTLY
IMPACT AIRPORTS...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SCT CUMULUS AND
LIGHT EAST WINDS. SOME LIGHT FOG TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN MVFR VIS AT
CKV/CSV.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
UPDATE...
RADAR THIS MORNING INDICATES CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ON THE
PLATEAU WITH OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM FURTHER WEST
IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE FORMING OVER EASTERN ZONES THEN GRADUALLY
DEVELOP/SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE DAY...AS LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS.
WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO CHANCE AREAWIDE. LOWER LEVELS ON 12Z
OHX SOUNDING ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE OVER WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS SUGGESTS SOME
LOCATIONS SUCH AS NASHVILLE MAY TOUCH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. BASED ON
THIS AND LATEST OBS...RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY AREAWIDE AS WELL. ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT IT HAS LOST ITS IMPACT
ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE`S WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER, AN UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR EAST HAS STRENGTHENED SO THAT WE KEEP OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE.
LOOK FOR MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TODAY, WHICH WILL HANDLE WITH
VCSH REMARKS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING AS WARM
AND HUMID AIR HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH THESE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...STORMS REALLY
CAN DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...AS THEY HAVE THIS MORNING. AN APPARENT
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM STORMS YESTERDAY HAS HELPED TO INITIATE SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE PLATEAU. WILL KEEP A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT THE BULK OF TODAY`S ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH ANYWHERE NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA...SO THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY OF THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION WILL BE SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. NO WIND SHEAR
AND PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED CAPE MEANS DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES DURING EACH OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BEGIN TO SEE A CHANGE IN
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. WE FINALLY GET OUT FROM UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
BECOME VERY SUMMERLIKE /-8 TO -9 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 500MB/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS START SHOWING SIGNS OF SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT.
WHILE THERE REMAINS NO WIND SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...THE ENTRAINMENT OF
DRY AIR INTO SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPARK MORE OF A WIND
THREAT BY MID-WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A CHANCE POP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT AN INCREASE WIND THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WHILE THIS IS A WEAK FEATURE...ANY FORM
OF LIFT IN THIS WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SPELL MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BOTTOM LINE...THESE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...AND PUSHING 70 DEGREES BY MID-WEEK.
UNGER
AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING WITH
JUST SOME SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. FOG ALREADY
BRINGING IFR VIS TO CSV AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
CSV/CKV OVERNIGHT. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS. LIGHT EAST
WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1058 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
RADAR THIS MORNING INDICATES CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ON THE
PLATEAU WITH OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM FURTHER WEST
IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE FORMING OVER EASTERN ZONES THEN GRADUALLY
DEVELOP/SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE DAY...AS LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS.
WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO CHANCE AREAWIDE. LOWER LEVELS ON 12Z
OHX SOUNDING ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE OVER WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS SUGGESTS SOME
LOCATIONS SUCH AS NASHVILLE MAY TOUCH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. BASED ON
THIS AND LATEST OBS...RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY AREAWIDE AS WELL. ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT IT HAS LOST ITS IMPACT
ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE`S WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER, AN UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR EAST HAS STRENGTHENED SO THAT WE KEEP OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE.
LOOK FOR MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TODAY, WHICH WILL HANDLE WITH
VCSH REMARKS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING AS WARM
AND HUMID AIR HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH THESE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...STORMS REALLY
CAN DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...AS THEY HAVE THIS MORNING. AN APPARENT
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM STORMS YESTERDAY HAS HELPED TO INITIATE SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE PLATEAU. WILL KEEP A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT THE BULK OF TODAY`S ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH ANYWHERE NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA...SO THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY OF THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION WILL BE SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. NO WIND SHEAR
AND PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED CAPE MEANS DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES DURING EACH OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BEGIN TO SEE A CHANGE IN
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. WE FINALLY GET OUT FROM UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
BECOME VERY SUMMERLIKE /-8 TO -9 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 500MB/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS START SHOWING SIGNS OF SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT.
WHILE THERE REMAINS NO WIND SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...THE ENTRAINMENT OF
DRY AIR INTO SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPARK MORE OF A WIND
THREAT BY MID-WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A CHANCE POP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT AN INCREASE WIND THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WHILE THIS IS A WEAK FEATURE...ANY FORM
OF LIFT IN THIS WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SPELL MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BOTTOM LINE...THESE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...AND PUSHING 70 DEGREES BY MID-WEEK.
UNGER
AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING WITH
JUST SOME SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. FOG ALREADY
BRINGING IFR VIS TO CSV AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
CSV/CKV OVERNIGHT. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS. LIGHT EAST
WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
305 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRINGING WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO OUR REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS 500 MB
RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. DO NOT BELIEVE THE NAM CONVECTION WITH
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR THE NW NC MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A RESULT OF UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE HRRR HAS BACK OFF ON POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION...WHILE RNK-WRFARW...GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE FAVOR RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. BUT WITH
DRY AIR DO NOT EXPECT ANY DENSE FOG LIKE PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS.
WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AND PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT. USED ADJMAVBC FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH
VALUES FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...
INCREASING HUMIDITY THIS PERIOD AS SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD INTO SRN ONTARIO
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
FLATTEN AS A RESULT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...WITH SOME HINT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS
IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
GOING TO SEE SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE TUESDAY WITH A WAVE MOVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYS END. NOTICED
MODELS HINTING AT A POSSIBLE LINE OF CONVECTION PER ORIENTATION OF
THE UPPER FLOW AND THE PVA FORECAST. WITH ALL MODELS PAINTING MORE
QPF IN THE WEST TUESDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR...WITH 40-50 POPS TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND 30
POPS PIEDMONT.
LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WARM TO THE LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT...AS
DEWPOINTS HEAD INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER RIDGES OF THE WEST...TO LOWER
80S VALLEYS...AND MID 80S EAST...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 1-4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN MOS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY DRY...THINK AIRMASS
WILL HEAT UP FASTER WITH LESS CLOUDS.
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE WARMER ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT SINCE 8H
TEMPS PUSH FROM +13-16C MONDAY TO +16-18C TUESDAY. SHOULD ALSO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER WEST BUT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER TIMING OF
POSSIBLE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY IMPACT THE
TEMP RISE. ATTM...WE ARE GOING WITH LOWER TO MID 80S WEST...70S
HIGHEST RIDGES...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.
THIS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE KY/VA BORDER BY 12Z WED. WILL LINGER CHANCE
POPS IN THE EVENING TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY..
GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN....AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALIGNS IN A WEST-EAST SETUP GIVEN FLATTER FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM BUT WILL BE IMPACTED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.
MODELS IN GENERAL IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALIGNED THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC WED-FRIDAY AND
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO VA BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY. TIMING ISSUES WITH
MODELS AND SHORTWAVES/ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ATTM...WILL KEEP
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST MAINTAINING HIGHER THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT-MORNING TIME
FRAME. LATEST 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY TRYING TO BUILD THE 5H RIDGE BACK
NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY NEXT SATURDAY WHICH BUCKLES THE FRONT
NORTH INTO MD/PA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THE PUNCH OF DRIER AIR HAS ERODE THE PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUD COVER BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE DRIER NE/E FLOW...DO NOT
EXPECT DENSE FOG LIKE PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN A FEW RIVER VALLEYS. LWB HAS THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF MORNING
FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY.
WINDS NE-SE AROUND 8-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NE U.S. ON SUNDAY...WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE NEXT CHANCE
AT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING POPS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE BLF OBSERVATION WILL REMAIN UNAVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
BECAUSE OF A COMMS ISSUE. WE ARE STILL ABLE TO DIAL INTO THE SITE.
HOWEVER...THE BLF TAF WILL REMAIN AMD NOT SKED UNTIL THE COMMS
ISSUE IS RESOLVED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...RAB/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
235 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
COOLER...MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM EDT FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS LATE THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION SLOWLY WEAKENS ACROSS NW NC AND GRAYSON/CARROLL COUNTY
AREAS OF SW VA. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IF ANY LTG DETECTED IN THESE
SHOWERS LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH ANYMORE...LESS THAN AN INCH
PER HOUR...BUT MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT SOME ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CONFINED TO WILKES AND YADKIN COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF ANY REMAINING
INSTABILITY...AND HRRR DEPICTS THIS IDEA BEST...ALTHOUGH SOME
OTHER MODELS HANG TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH ENTIRE NIGHT.
SLOWLY REDUCE POPS ALL NIGHT DOWN ION FAR SW WITH ONLY A SMALL
AREAS OF SLIGHT CHC BY MORNING BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ALL
PRECIP IS GONE BY 2 OR 3AM.
BIG QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT IS AMOUNT OF STRATUS THAT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH THINK STRATUS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS PREVIOUS NIGHT AND PERHAPS LIMITED TO NEAR BLUE RIDGE AND NRV.
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON OVERALL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY FAR
WEST...BUT THINK VALLEY FOG WILL EVENTUALLY FORM AS WELL AS ALONG
BLUE RIDGE AND MUCH OF PIEDMONT AS WELL. NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR AND REDUCE SKY COVER
OVER SE WV PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. STILL EXPECTING LOW
CLOUDS TO FILL IN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND INTO ROA AND NRV AFTER
SUNSET...BUT MAY STAY RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE A LITTLE LONGER IN
FAR WEST. ISOLD SHWRS NORTH OF ROANOKE SHOULD QUICKLY DIE WITH
SUNSET...BUT SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER IN NW NC AND
AROUND GALAX TO HILLSVILLE MAY PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT SINCE
IN VICINITY OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MODELS SUGGEST WEAK
INSTABILITY LINGERS THERE INTO LATE EVENING. KEEPING ALL POPS
BELOW LIKELY BUT KEPT SOME MID CHANCE A LITTLE LONGER INTO
EVENING DOWN IN NC FOOTHILLS. SOME MINOR CONCERNS ABOUT HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THESE STORMS ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST BUT MAY
LINE UP MORE DURING EVENING. STILL...NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES...LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT IF THEY LINGER OVER THE
SAME AREAS FOR AWHILE...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAD AN INCH OR TWO
OF RAIN YESTERDAY...COULD BE SOME MINOR ISSUES WITH WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC BASED CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMB TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH LIS AROUND MINUS 4
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND LIFE SPAN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN SHARP CONTRAST...MARINE AMS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO ERODE AND HOLDING TEMPERATURES
DOWN. HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH SUN ANGLE AND MIXING WILL BREAK UP THE
LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED THAT
WEST EDGE OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP BEFORE SUNSET.
DECIDED TO PLAY POPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST BASICALLY WEST OF I77. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...KEPT ISOLATED SCATTERED POPS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. THE SWODY2 HAS PUSHED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY. MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT OR LIFT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE A CHALLENGE WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER. RAISED HIGHS UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE DELMARVA SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
HIGH THEN BECOMES POSITIONED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.
EXPECTING A DRY FINISH TO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY OR UNTIL THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE EAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHALLOW UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...BKN SORT OF CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SCATTERED SUNDAY. BY MONDAY TENDENCY WILL BE FOR
MODERATE CU FORMATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGS INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND HIGHER CAPE.
H85 TEMPS OF 8C IN THE VA PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND CLOSER
TO 15C ON MONDAY. SUNDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A WINNER IN TERMS
OF COMFORT FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NORTH OF THIS
RIDGE...A MORE ZONAL TYPE PATTERN WILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN CONUS...ALTHOUGH VERY NOISY...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIPPLING EAST WITHIN THE FASTER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL FAVOR A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE NORMAL...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THE PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A
DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOTHING ORGANIZED PER SE
OR LASTING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME...BUT MAINLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IF THERE IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO BEING ORGANIZED IT WILL
MOST LIKELY COME FROM SOMETHING GENERATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT...THIS
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN
THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR A SQUALL LINE. OUTSIDE OF
THIS UPSTREAM THREAT...LOCAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES IN
THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WIND
CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE GREATEST. WITH WESTERLY SORT OF WINDS
ALOFT...A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE PIEDMONT WHICH
WILL AID IN SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE TOO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART
OF THE CWA. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALSO FINALLY PUSH DRY AIR FROM THE NE AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...FOR TODAY...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BANK UP AGAINST THE ALLEGHANYS IN THE EASTERLY
MARITIME FLOW. COMPARED TO FRI...THESE CLOUDS WILL TRACK FURTHER
WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD
BLF/LWB/BCB/DAN BUT WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR TOWARD
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH FOG THIS
MORNING AS FRI EITHER...WITH AREAS OF MVFR VIS IN BR THROUGH
14Z...WITH PATCHY IFR BR MAINLY LWB THROUGH 14Z. WINDS NE-SE
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 5-7KTS
TO AROUND 8-10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NE U.S.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE NEXT CHANCE AT SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNS BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING
ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
OCCASIONALLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OVERALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT
INLAND...WITH OCCASIONAL NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS SET OFF A THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT ADAMS...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LIGHTNING DETECTION IMAGERY
SHOWS QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OUT OF THIS...MAINLY IN KLICKITAT
AND YAKIMA COUNTIES...BUT A COUPLE IN SKAMANIA COUNTY AS WELL. THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE E-SE
TODAY...BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE CASCADES MOUNT HOOD NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
OVERALL TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH DECIDEDLY ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BUT A WARM AIR MASS ALOFT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER WRN CANADA INTO THE PAC NW IS PROMOTING THIS ONSHORE
FLOW. HOWEVER AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...GOOD MIXING ALONG WITH 850
MB TEMPS AROUND +10 DEG C SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL INLAND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ANY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD RETREAT TO THE COAST BY MIDDAY...
WITH PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SAME OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER...KEEPING FLOW ONSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE 70S. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
GATHER ALONG THE COAST...KEEPING THEM CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES FOR HIGHS.
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY RETREAT TO THE COAST BY
MIDDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY...THOUGH
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE CASCADE CREST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FROM OUR CURRENT PATTERN WELL INTO THE COMING
WEEK. IT APPEARS FLOW ALOFT TURNS ANTICYCLONIC BY TUE AFTERNOON...
WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT CAPPING ANY INSTABILITY. THUS WE DECIDED TO
REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE CASCADES TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OUR CURRENT WEAK UPPER TROUGH JUST GETS
REPLACED BY ANOTHER BY THURSDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT W-NW FLOW ALOFT TO
PERSIST...WITH NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS TO BRING A THREAT OF MUCH MORE
THAN AREAS OF COASTAL DRIZZLE. SFC PRES GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
DECIDEDLY ONSHORE...KEEPING INLAND TEMPS FROM GETTING MUCH MORE THAN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PERSISTENT COASTAL LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT BURN BACK TO THE COAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LEAVING PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS
ALONG THE N AND CENTRAL OREGON COASTLINE. INCREASING MVFR ALONG
THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL RIVER DRAINAGES
AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR THESE
CLOUDS WILL PENETRATE INLAND...BUT LOCAL MVFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE OVER THE SW WA LOWLANDS AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TO KPDX AND VICINITY. /27
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL AND VICINITY
AROUND 13Z. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM WILL DISSIPATE BY 17Z.
WEISHAAR
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC HOLDING FIRM...AND WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GFS MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
SURFACE FEATURES WELL. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 25
KT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
NAM AND GFS INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT WIND SPEEDS 18Z TODAY THROUGH
06Z SUN. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS A BIT MORE TO THE S
SAT AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY. THUS...THE S WA WATERS MAY NOT
ACHIEVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS.
THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE LONGER PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEAS TO BE RELATIVELY STEEP AND
CHOPPY AS WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE WA
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN FRESH NW SWELL PUSHING 10 FT
BY TUE. WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1030 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will undergo a warming trend this weekend.
Many areas will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. The majority
of the region will remain dry through the middle of next week.
However, the mountainous regions of north Idaho and northern
Washington will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon through mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Scattered thunderstorm activity that has been
mainly be confined to Kittitas and Yakima counties but is
starting to drift northward into southern Chelan County. There
have not been any strikes observed in Chelan County but a few
cells near the crest could still strengthen over the next hour.
With the sun setting, the main threat with this activity will
transition to isolated showers. Latest HRRR is doing well with
the placement of this activity and takes it to the northeast while
falling apart upon reaching southern Okanogan County. Consequently,
a few light showers are expected to pass through Wenatchee...
Waterville Plateau...and eastern reaches of Chelan County over
the next few hours then wane by 06z.
The next feature of note is a midlevel circulation that came from
northern CA and is driving thunderstorms across Central Oregon.
Clouds and any shower activity with this feature will spread into
SE WA and the lower ID Panhandle between 6-12z. A few light
showers will be possible but once again, the threat for thunder is
low (not entirely impossible) but too low to differ from the
dayshifts thoughts which advertised showers over thunderstorms.
I did spread the threat for sprinkles and light showers northward
into Pullman/Lewiston and increased cloud cover. This also lead to
raising overnight temperatures for most locations south of line
from Mullan to La Crosse. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all terminals through 06z
Sat. The sct t-storm activity that was over the Cascades has waned
to showers. Steering flow will drift the convective debris and a
some sprinkles over KEAT at times. A second cluster of elevated
showers tracking NE through Oregon is currently near KPDT. This
activity is also expected to weaken and only bring the threat
for increased clouds and a few light showers in the vcnty of
KLWS/KPUW. Aft 20z...aftn heating and presence of upper-low over
the region will renew the threat for -shra and isold -tsra mainly
across the mtns but with the best instability focusing in the ID
Panhandle and Blue Mtns...may see a few -shra vcnty KLWS/KPUW. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 78 51 79 53 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 48 78 48 78 50 80 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Pullman 49 77 46 77 48 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 55 84 53 84 55 88 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Colville 45 78 48 80 50 84 / 10 20 10 10 10 10
Sandpoint 45 77 45 78 47 80 / 0 20 20 10 10 10
Kellogg 47 75 48 75 50 80 / 10 30 20 10 10 10
Moses Lake 49 84 52 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 53 84 59 86 61 88 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 43 82 51 85 53 87 / 10 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BETWEEN UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
INCLUDE ONE NEAR DULUTH...ANOTHER STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA AND A THIRD OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE TAIL
END OF THE DULUTH SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH LACK OF CAPPING
AND MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG HAS SUPPORTED NUMEROUS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN WI INTO SOUTHEAST MN. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S HAS HELPED SUPPORT THE
MUCAPE VALUES. HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN A BIG CONCERN WITH THE STORMS
AS THE OVERALL 0-6KM SHEAR IS 20 KT OR LESS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
HAS BEEN RUNNING 1.6-1.8 INCHES. HOWEVER...HAVE ALSO HAD TO
CONTEND WITH SOME WIND WITH 0-3KM SHEAR RUNNING 20-30
KT...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO HELP PRODUCE WET .
MEANWHILE...TO OUR SOUTHWEST...NUMEROUS CONVECTION WAS PRESENT
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THERE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MN BACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WAS ALSO PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FORCE
THE CONVECTION.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL HANDLING CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY WITH
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND
A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THUS...MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS
BASED ON ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND OTHER
CONVECTIVE SIGNALS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.
CONVECTION CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS A BIG TIE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...ANTICIPATING A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER
SUNSET. ADDITIONALLY...THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE CONVECTION
OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTED BY THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS SUGGEST THESE TWO
SHORTWAVES MAY MERGE...LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING. GOOD DPVA SIGNAL...ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER INCREASE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES.
THUS...BELIEVE SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EITHER AS SOON AS
LATE THIS EVENING...OR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION MAY BE DONE WITH AFTER 12Z...OR PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS ARE
STILL MAINTAINED IN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LOW WITH 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR MOSTLY UNDER 20
KT THROUGH 06Z. THE SHEAR DOES TICK UP TOWARDS 12Z...TO 20-
30KT...BUT THERE IS BIG UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE
AROUND. THUS...FEEL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. REGARDING
THAT RAIN THREAT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN RECENT
RAIN...THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE
INFORMATION IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY SLOT SHOULD BE PUNCHING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES IN OVER NORTHERN MN. MEANWHILE...THE CURRENT COLD FRONT
OFF IN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO PASS COMPARED TO
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY 19Z...THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR LA CROSSE.
THE QUESTION IS IF ENOUGH RECOVERY AND CONVERGENCE CAN OCCUR ON THE
FRONT TO COUNTERACT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. HAVE CARRIED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE EVENT IT CAN
OCCUR. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS STILL ONLY 20-30KT...SO AT MOST
MAYBE SOME SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ASSUMING CONVECTION
FIRES. ANY CONVECTION WILL PUSH OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH THE
AREA LIKELY DRY AFTER 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON AN UPPER LOW COMING INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
FIRST...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN MN UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT...TRACKING
ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-94 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWER
ACTIVITY VS THUNDERSTORM GIVEN TIME OF NIGHT AND COOLER AIRMASS.
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SAY 15Z
TUESDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
HEADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
SHEARED OUT WAVE. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN MCS AHEAD OF
THE WAVE IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS MCS...LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF A BOW ECHO...SHOULD PROPAGATE AT LEAST TO THE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWING THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...CORFIDI VECTORS AND THOSE THAT FORWARD
PROPAGATE SUGGEST EVEN A BIT MOVEMENT SOUTH OF DUE EAST. THUS...
BELIEVE THE 01.12Z NAM AND 01.09Z SREF MEAN ARE INCORRECT BRINGING
THE MCS NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
01.12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF LOOK MUCH MORE REALISTIC...
KEEPING IT TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE SHIFTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES A BIT MORE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE
CHANCES COULD BE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN LATER FORECASTS.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THEN SHOULD TAKE HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE FROM CANADA. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT
SHOULD ALSO HELP FOR THE DRY FORECAST BY PUTTING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR AN UPPER
TROUGH TO DIG DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. DPVA FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH PLUS SOME MOISTURE
STREAMING AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...CHANCES EXIST IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AREA OF SHRA/TS MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY INDICATE VIA RADAR
POST THIS AREA...AND THE NAM12/HRRR/RAP13 SUGGEST THAT AFTER THIS
MOVES THOUGH /09Z/...THAT COULD BE IT FOR KRST/KLSE FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND ANOTHER PERTURBATION IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...COULD SPARK ISOLD -SHRAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT KRST/KLSE WOULD BE IMPACTED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SOMETHING
TO WATCH THOUGH.
A SFC LOW/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP IN
MONDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD BRING SOME MVFR CIGS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SUBSIDENCE POST THE SYSTEM SHOULD SCATTER OUT THE
CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW
LEVEL MIXING LEADING TO STRONGER/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY AFFECTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 18...BROUGHT ANYWHERE FROM 1/4 TO AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES PER RADAR ESTIMATES. IN FACT...THE AUSTIN AWOS
REPORTED 1.74 INCHES IN 1 HOUR...BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM...WITH
HEAVIER CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH THERE. STREET FLOODING WAS
OBSERVED IN AUSTIN DUE TO THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATE. GIVEN
THAT THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY NOT DIMINISH UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONCERNED ANOTHER 1 INCH
IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THEN THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENTERING WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MN WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING PERHAPS
ANOTHER 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THUS...VERY CONCERNED WE COULD
END UP WITH SOME FLOODING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 18 SEEM MOST FAVORABLE GIVEN RAIN LOCATION TODAY...SO
LEFT OUT FAYETTE...CLAYTON AND GRANT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RIVERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK AS ALL OF THE RAIN RUNS THROUGH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...UPSTREAM HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY BRING
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT LOCATION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
WIZ032.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MNZ079.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1047 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FFG NUMBERS FOR CALUMET FOR 3 HOURS ABOUT 1.65 INCHES OF RAIN.
WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY...MAY INSTEAD NEED TO GO
WITH AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING OR POSSIBLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN
THE NEXT FEW MINUTES. WATCHING THE RAINFALL RATES NEXT SCAN OR
TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREAS AND ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ML CAPES
OVER 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER CELLULAR
IN NATURE BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SLOW CONGEALING TREND FROM
NORTHERN IOWA TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN POSSIBLY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THOUGH HAVE A HAD A FEW WIND REPORTS TO 45 MPH...THE
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE FLASH FLOODING IN THE CENTRAL TO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN CORRIDOR. THE DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS IS
NOT QUITE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW...SO CONCERNS THAT THE OUTFLOW
WILL CAUSE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME. WILL PASS
ALONG THE CONCERNS TO THE EVENING SHIFT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TONIGHT...RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE FEATURES TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TRAILING
END OF ONE VORT MAX WILL BE DEPARTING FAR NE WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING WHILE ANOTHER TAIL OF A VORT WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ROBBING THE MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD...AND
FOCUSING THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS HERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BUT ONCE
THESE FEATURES EXIT...THINK WILL SEE A GENERAL DIMINISHING PRECIP
TREND AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT IS LOST. AFTER
PLENTY OF RAINFALL IN SPOTS TODAY AND A HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE...SUPPORT IS THERE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG LATER TONIGHT. WILL FOCUS THE STRONGER FOG WORDING OVER CENTRAL
AND N-C WISCONSIN WHERE MOS GUIDANCE HITS THE LOWER VSBYS HARDER.
THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
OCCURS...FORCING ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELEVATED CAPES REACHING 600 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS AROUND
20 KTS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LLJ LATE TONIGHT AND A SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE HIGHER IF THIS DEVELOPS. BUT CURRENTLY THINKING FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN THAN A SEVERE THREAT. MUGGY NIGHT
TIME LOWS IN THE 60S.
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NE TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS IT DRAGS A COOL FRONT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
SINCE WINDS ARE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. FORCING ALOFT IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION LOOKS MORE ROBUST AND THINK WILL DRIVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH FORCING ALOFT INCREASING DURING THE
MORNING...THINK WILL SEE AN AREA OF STORMS MOVE FROM SW TO NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ML
CAPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 700-1000 J/KG RANGE WHILE
BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS OVER NE WISCONSIN. IF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP DO NOT HOLD TEMPS BACK...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER NE WISCONSIN. RATHER SKINNY CAPE
SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND TO GO ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WILL BE BRIEF...AS NEAR-SEVERE TSTMS HAVE KEPT US BUSY THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL STILL HAVE LINGERING
POPS MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ON TUESDAY FOR SOME LIGHT WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO
MAINTAINED SOME SMALL POPS OVER C/EC WI ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HUDSON BAY
IS EXPECTED SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY
STORMS. VFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
THEN TO IFR CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
651 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREAS AND ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ML CAPES
OVER 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER CELLULAR
IN NATURE BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SLOW CONGEALING TREND FROM
NORTHERN IOWA TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN POSSIBLY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THOUGH HAVE A HAD A FEW WIND REPORTS TO 45 MPH...THE
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE FLASH FLOODING IN THE CENTRAL TO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN CORRIDOR. THE DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS IS
NOT QUITE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW...SO CONCERNS THAT THE OUTFLOW
WILL CAUSE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME. WILL PASS
ALONG THE CONCERNS TO THE EVENING SHIFT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TONIGHT...RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE FEATURES TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TRAILING
END OF ONE VORT MAX WILL BE DEPARTING FAR NE WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING WHILE ANOTHER TAIL OF A VORT WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ROBBING THE MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD...AND
FOCUSING THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS HERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BUT ONCE
THESE FEATURES EXIT...THINK WILL SEE A GENERAL DIMINISHING PRECIP
TREND AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT IS LOST. AFTER
PLENTY OF RAINFALL IN SPOTS TODAY AND A HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE...SUPPORT IS THERE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG LATER TONIGHT. WILL FOCUS THE STRONGER FOG WORDING OVER CENTRAL
AND N-C WISCONSIN WHERE MOS GUIDANCE HITS THE LOWER VSBYS HARDER.
THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
OCCURS...FORCING ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELEVATED CAPES REACHING 600 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS AROUND
20 KTS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LLJ LATE TONIGHT AND A SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE HIGHER IF THIS DEVELOPS. BUT CURRENTLY THINKING FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN THAN A SEVERE THREAT. MUGGY NIGHT
TIME LOWS IN THE 60S.
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NE TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS IT DRAGS A COOL FRONT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
SINCE WINDS ARE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. FORCING ALOFT IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION LOOKS MORE ROBUST AND THINK WILL DRIVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH FORCING ALOFT INCREASING DURING THE
MORNING...THINK WILL SEE AN AREA OF STORMS MOVE FROM SW TO NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ML
CAPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 700-1000 J/KG RANGE WHILE
BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS OVER NE WISCONSIN. IF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP DO NOT HOLD TEMPS BACK...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER NE WISCONSIN. RATHER SKINNY CAPE
SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND TO GO ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WILL BE BRIEF...AS NEAR-SEVERE TSTMS HAVE KEPT US BUSY THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL STILL HAVE LINGERING
POPS MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ON TUESDAY FOR SOME LIGHT WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO
MAINTAINED SOME SMALL POPS OVER C/EC WI ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HUDSON BAY
IS EXPECTED SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY
STORMS. VFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
THEN TO IFR CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
630 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BETWEEN UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
INCLUDE ONE NEAR DULUTH...ANOTHER STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA AND A THIRD OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE TAIL
END OF THE DULUTH SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH LACK OF CAPPING
AND MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG HAS SUPPORTED NUMEROUS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN WI INTO SOUTHEAST MN. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S HAS HELPED SUPPORT THE
MUCAPE VALUES. HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN A BIG CONCERN WITH THE STORMS
AS THE OVERALL 0-6KM SHEAR IS 20 KT OR LESS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
HAS BEEN RUNNING 1.6-1.8 INCHES. HOWEVER...HAVE ALSO HAD TO
CONTEND WITH SOME WIND WITH 0-3KM SHEAR RUNNING 20-30
KT...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO HELP PRODUCE WET .
MEANWHILE...TO OUR SOUTHWEST...NUMEROUS CONVECTION WAS PRESENT
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THERE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MN BACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WAS ALSO PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FORCE
THE CONVECTION.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL HANDLING CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY WITH
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND
A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THUS...MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS
BASED ON ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND OTHER
CONVECTIVE SIGNALS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.
CONVECTION CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS A BIG TIE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...ANTICIPATING A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER
SUNSET. ADDITIONALLY...THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE CONVECTION
OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTED BY THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS SUGGEST THESE TWO
SHORTWAVES MAY MERGE...LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING. GOOD DPVA SIGNAL...ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER INCREASE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES.
THUS...BELIEVE SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EITHER AS SOON AS
LATE THIS EVENING...OR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION MAY BE DONE WITH AFTER 12Z...OR PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS ARE
STILL MAINTAINED IN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LOW WITH 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR MOSTLY UNDER 20
KT THROUGH 06Z. THE SHEAR DOES TICK UP TOWARDS 12Z...TO 20-
30KT...BUT THERE IS BIG UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE
AROUND. THUS...FEEL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. REGARDING
THAT RAIN THREAT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN RECENT
RAIN...THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE
INFORMATION IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY SLOT SHOULD BE PUNCHING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES IN OVER NORTHERN MN. MEANWHILE...THE CURRENT COLD FRONT
OFF IN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO PASS COMPARED TO
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY 19Z...THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR LA CROSSE.
THE QUESTION IS IF ENOUGH RECOVERY AND CONVERGENCE CAN OCCUR ON THE
FRONT TO COUNTERACT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. HAVE CARRIED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE EVENT IT CAN
OCCUR. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS STILL ONLY 20-30KT...SO AT MOST
MAYBE SOME SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ASSUMING CONVECTION
FIRES. ANY CONVECTION WILL PUSH OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH THE
AREA LIKELY DRY AFTER 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON AN UPPER LOW COMING INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
FIRST...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN MN UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT...TRACKING
ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-94 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWER
ACTIVITY VS THUNDERSTORM GIVEN TIME OF NIGHT AND COOLER AIRMASS.
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SAY 15Z
TUESDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
HEADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
SHEARED OUT WAVE. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN MCS AHEAD OF
THE WAVE IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS MCS...LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF A BOW ECHO...SHOULD PROPAGATE AT LEAST TO THE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWING THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...CORFIDI VECTORS AND THOSE THAT FORWARD
PROPAGATE SUGGEST EVEN A BIT MOVEMENT SOUTH OF DUE EAST. THUS...
BELIEVE THE 01.12Z NAM AND 01.09Z SREF MEAN ARE INCORRECT BRINGING
THE MCS NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
01.12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF LOOK MUCH MORE REALISTIC...
KEEPING IT TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE SHIFTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES A BIT MORE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE
CHANCES COULD BE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN LATER FORECASTS.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THEN SHOULD TAKE HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE FROM CANADA. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT
SHOULD ALSO HELP FOR THE DRY FORECAST BY PUTTING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR AN UPPER
TROUGH TO DIG DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. DPVA FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH PLUS SOME MOISTURE
STREAMING AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...CHANCES EXIST IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC BOUNDARY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...JUICY
ATMOSPHERE AND INSTABILITY ALL HAVING ROLES IN THE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TS ACROSS THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE POST A DEPARTING WEAK RIPPLE
ALOFT IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF DECREASING PCPN AROUND THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CURRENTLY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF
IFR/MVFR VSBYS WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
TRENDS IN THE MESO MODELS...HRRR/RAP13...ARE TO PULL THE PCPN EAST
OF KRST/KLSE OVERNIGHT...ENDING BETWEEN 09-12Z. NAM12 HANGS ONTO THE
THREAT FOR MUCH LONGER...BUT IT LOOKS TOO SLOW WITH ITS MOVEMENT ON
THE SHORTWAVE. WILL TREND TOWARD A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR
TIMING FOR NOW.
A SFC LOW/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP IN
MONDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD BRING SOME MVFR CIGS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS. SUBSIDENCE POST THE SYSTEM SHOULD SCATTER
OUT THE CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL MIXING LEADING TO STRONGER/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY AFFECTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 18...BROUGHT ANYWHERE FROM 1/4 TO AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES PER RADAR ESTIMATES. IN FACT...THE AUSTIN AWOS
REPORTED 1.74 INCHES IN 1 HOUR...BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM...WITH
HEAVIER CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH THERE. STREET FLOODING WAS
OBSERVED IN AUSTIN DUE TO THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATE. GIVEN
THAT THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY NOT DIMINISH UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONCERNED ANOTHER 1 INCH
IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THEN THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENTERING WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MN WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING PERHAPS
ANOTHER 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THUS...VERY CONCERNED WE COULD
END UP WITH SOME FLOODING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 18 SEEM MOST FAVORABLE GIVEN RAIN LOCATION TODAY...SO
LEFT OUT FAYETTE...CLAYTON AND GRANT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RIVERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK AS ALL OF THE RAIN RUNS THROUGH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...UPSTREAM HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY BRING
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT LOCATION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
WIZ032.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MNZ079.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHEYENNE WY
548 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD
ADVANCING COLD POOL FROM STORMS THAT FIRED EARLIER OVER NATRONA
AND CONVERSE COUNTIES ARE RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MORRILL
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS (JUST NORTH OF
ALLIANCE) AND WINDS TO NEAR 75 MPH...ALTHOUGH THEY APPEAR A BIT
WEAKER AT THIS TIME ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OVER MORRILL AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES. AIRMASS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THESE STORMS
IS FAIRLY WORKED OVER NOW AND STABILIZED AS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONGEST STORMS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY STILL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS THEY APPROACH
THE CITY OF SIDNEY. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY 8 PM
WITH A FEW WEAKER ISOLATED CELLS POSSIBLE OUT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MID EVENING WHERE WE STILL HAVE A FEW
CONVECTIVE TOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH ITS
AXIS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH WINDS GOING NORTH TO NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS MOVING OVER MUCH OF CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WEAK INSTABILITY IS SHOWN UP IN THIS REGION...LARGELY
CAUSED BY COOL MIDLVL TEMPS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE
SVR STORMS THROUGH THE AFTN OVER THE CWA...HOWEVER THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS
IS WHERE THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
CO-LOCATED WITH 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION AND
DECREASING INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTN ARE NEGATIVES FOR STRONGER
STORMS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
STORMS DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS WILL
WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING...NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT
WHERE STORMS LINGERED LATE INTO THE NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MIDLVL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH SFC WINDS TURNING TO THE SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF AT ALL...WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH
THE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS COME UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY
TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTN. THE TIMING
OF THE WAVE IS SUCH THAT THE DRYLINE IS LOCATED OVER THE PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND DEWPOINTS
ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE VERY HIGH (60-65F) TO THE EAST.
INSTABILITY IS EXCELLENT (LI VALUES OF -9C) AS IS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SVR STORMS OVER OUR
EASTERN ZONES. OF COURSE IF THE WAVE IS SLOWER AND THE SFC TROUGH
IS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BACK UP ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE THEN THE SVR THREAT WOULD EXTEND TO ALMOST THE ENTIRE
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
GFS SHOWS MAIN SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE
TUESDAY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
MID/UPPER DRYSLOT WORKING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THIS
FAR NORTH WITH THE UPPER DRYSLOT AND HENCE WOULD SUGGEST SOMEWHAT
GREATER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA
AND OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT OVERALL MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND FAIRLY ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SEMI-
ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES
WHEN EACH PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE OUR AREA...SO WE
KEPT AT LEAST SOME POPS GOING MOST AREAS WITH CHANCE POPS
CONCENTRATED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY AS GFS (AND TO SOME DEGREE
THE ECMWF) DEPICTS A LARGESCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING TO OUR EAST WITH
RIDGING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH ON
AMPLIFYING THE EASTERN TROUGH...SO WE MAY END UP RAISING POPS FOR
SUNDAY ON SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
STORMS THAT PRODUCED 70 MPH WINDS IN ALLIANCE HAVE MOVED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AROUND SIDNEY AT THIS
TIME. KEPT STRONG STORMS IN SIDNEY AREA THROUGH 01Z THEN DROPPED
MENTION OF THUNDER ALL AVIATION FORECAST SITES AFTER 02Z AS
AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABILIZED. VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF
FORECAST PERIODS ALL SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 15 PERCENT BY
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT FORECASTED
SINCE FUELS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE GROWTH.
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH
PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED AND STAGES SHOULD BEGIN TO RECEDE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOWMELT EACH DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH
PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED AND STAGES SHOULD BEGIN TO RECEDE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOWMELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GARMON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
327 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTN AND EVENING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...MAINLY DUE TO THE MARGINAL FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS IS STILL RATHER MARGINAL TO GET
STORMS MORE ORGANIZED INTO SUPERCELLS. A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE CHUGWATER AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR AND HAVE NOT REALLY
STRENGTHENED AS IT PUSHED OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT
THE BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40 KTS BY AROUND 00Z AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO WESTERN WY. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM
THE TROUGH IS GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR
MODEL SHOWS INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS OVER PLATTE AND CONVERSE
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN THAT MERGE INTO A LINE/MULTICELL CLUSTER
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE SVR
WORDING WITH LARGE HAIL IN THE GRIDS SINCE CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE BY THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS WY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY SUN AFTN.
SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO HAVE
MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY 18Z SUN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST. THE DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
COMPARED TO THIS AFTN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MOIST IT
WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND THE MORE MOIST NAM IN THE MID
50S. TEND TO THINK THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA IN THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR EASTERN ZONES
SINCE WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGER AND BULK SHEAR ARE 40-45 KTS. SPC
HAS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
WYOMING MONDAY. FOR THE MOST PART...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR DRIEST
DAY. LATEST NAM/WRF IS SHOWING SOME POPS DOWN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING. DO THINK FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH THAT
EVERYONE WILL BE DRY.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...GFS SHOWING AN 80 TO 85KT JET TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
WYOMING...WITH MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FAVORABLE LFQ
OF THE JET. SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS CONVERSE...NIOBRARA COUNTIES
IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. SINCE IT HAS
BEEN SHOWING THIS SETUP FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS. SEVERE CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS JET SAGS SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH. STRONGER SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF VERY SIMILAR ON WHERE POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
FRIDAY EVENING. COULD BE OUR NEXT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE AT
THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND AFTER 23Z FOR OUR
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. SOME QUESTION ON CAPPING INHIBITING
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LATEST HRRR FORECAST
SUGGESTS THAT KSNY AND MAYBE KBFF WILL STAY DRY. DO THINK WE STILL
HAVE A CHANCE AND ADDED VCTS TO THESE TAFS AFTER 23Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE 00Z TAFS. SHOULD NOT SEE THE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT WE SAW THIS MORNING FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
SUN MORNING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST
WINDS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH
PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS MOISTURE DECREASES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES
BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1100 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
CHANCE OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD FOR
THIS AFTN. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH GOOD SFC HEATING. THE RUC MODEL INDICATES
SBCAPES OF 1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTN WITH BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT
WEAK LLVL SHEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL OVER THE FAR EAST PARTS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL EXIT SHORTLY AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES ON
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME CLEARING NOTED OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
EDGE EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ON BATCH OF ENERGY EJECTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKYS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF WILL INCREASE UPPER WINDS OVER THE CWA
TODAY AND WITH LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGHER
TODAY. THE CLEARING THAT HAS OCCURRED WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARMING
OVER PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY THUS SHOULD SEE MORE INSTABILITY FOR
THE PRODUCTION OF WDLY SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EAST INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WITH HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO PERSIST LONGER
TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE.
SUNDAY A LITTLE MORE TRICKY AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH A MODEST FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH
A BIT DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE NUDGED TO
THE EAST BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE PANHANDLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH MONDAY LOOKING MAINLY
DRY AND MILD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING THE FORECAST AREA BEING THE CONFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY MESSY SO VERY TOUGH TO TIME
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE ALMOST
EVERY DAY THERE WILL BE A SHOT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES IN
THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NORM BUT ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EAST. CURRENTLY THE MODELS MOSTLY
KEEPING THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES ON THE DRIER SIDE OF
THINGS...WHICH IF CORRECT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SLOWER
SNOWMELT...ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND AFTER 23Z FOR OUR
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. SOME QUESTION ON CAPPING INHIBITING
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LATEST HRRR FORECAST
SUGGESTS THAT KSNY AND MAYBE KBFF WILL STAY DRY. DO THINK WE STILL
HAVE A CHANCE AND ADDED VCTS TO THESE TAFS AFTER 23Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE 00Z TAFS. SHOULD NOT SEE THE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT WE SAW THIS MORNING FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NON-
CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. TODAY SHOULD SEE THE
LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER AND
EAST OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR WILL ACT TO REDUCE ACTIVITY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH
PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND
SNOWY RANGES BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
257 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE ISLAND PARK AREA THIS
MORNING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A PRETTY NICE MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY LATE MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE
LOOKING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM AND WRF ARE
OVERDOING THINGS...WHILE THE GFS AND HRRR ARE UNDERDOING. THAT IS
WHY WE WENT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE AND
ISOLATED STORMS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A STRAY STORM IN THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR OAKLEY AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY MOVING CLOSER TO THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE STILL FOR
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OVERALL TOMORROW WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
HAILEY TO MONTPELIER LINE. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT NON-
SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME
GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SPEED
OF TOMORROW`S SYSTEM AND ITS EXIT FROM OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM PUSHES WELL EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS IT ONLY
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. THIS GREATLY AFFECTS THE AMOUNT OF
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH A SLOWER
PATTERN AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GOING BACK TO TOMORROW`S WEATHER...WE ARE
LOOKING AT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SNAKE PLAIN. WE MAY APPROACH THE LOW END THRESHOLD FOR A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT WE ARE STICKING WITH WINDS A BIT BELOW THAT WHICH
DOES MEAN THAT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THOUGH FOR
AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY TODAY
WITH SEVERAL PLACES HITTING THE LOW/MID 80S. IT WILL COOL DOWN
THOUGH TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THAT BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. KEYES
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING STILL WITH HOW FAR SOUTH A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE MAY SEE ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO.
IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES FARTHER SOUTH...WE COULD SEE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE KEEP ANY
REAL THREAT IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS. BEYOND THAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FARTHER
APART. THE ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH A SLOWER MOVING LOW ACROSS OUR AREA
AND A DECENT SHOT AT RAIN BY MONDAY. THE GFS IS A LOT QUICKER AND
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WE DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE GOING FORECAST OF ANY DEVELOPMENT
CONFINED TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RUNNING AT
OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW
80S RETURN FROM TIME TO TIME BUT 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MOST
VALLEYS WILL BE COMMON...AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND KSUN 21Z-03Z TODAY. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AT BOTH KSUN
AND KIDA. FOR KBYI AND KPIH...WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WE BEGIN THE DAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVANCING
INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING
CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO THE SOUTHERLY
INFLUENCE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL BOOST
THE HAINES INDEX TO 6 FOR AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF BIG SOUTHERN BUTTE.
THIS WILL LAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE APPROACHING
TROUGH HAS TIME TO COOL THE AIR DOWN AND INCREASE THE HUMIDITY. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
SAWTOOTH AND SALMON-CHALLIS FOREST AREA. MOISTURE DEEPENS AND THE CHANCE
OF WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES OVER NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY MOST SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF A PICABO TO GRAYS
LAKE LINE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE ARCO DESERT AND LOWER
SNAKE PLAIN. RS
&&
.HYDROLOGY...RIVER MODELS AGAIN KEEPING ALL GAUGES BELOW BANKFULL
FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENCY IMAGERY
COMBINED WITH SNOTEL DATA INDICATES THE TETONS ARE THE LAST HOLD
OUT FOR SNOW DEPTH AND MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. SWIFT FLOWS AND
HIGH WATER ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR TRIBUTARIES AND CREEKS LEADING
TO THE MAIN RIVERS PARTICULARLY THROUGH TETON BASIN. FLOODING NOT A
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. DMH/KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
403 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE
SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE
REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH
IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST
12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND
ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE
AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME
CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN
WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A
MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS
SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING
EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE
DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S
NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK
DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN.
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD
ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT
AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL
SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
STORMS.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND
RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN
HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.
ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP
MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE
MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF
A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* GUSTY S WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL THIS
AFTN.
* ISOL TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTN.
* MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL WITH THE STORMS.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NW TODAY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL.
FIRST...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND THINKING
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THOSE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER RFD EARLY THIS
MORNING. SITES TO OUR NORTH AND SOME TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE
REPORTING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...BUT THOSE ARE CLOSELY TIED TO AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION. LEFT SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS...BUT THINKING RFD HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP.
ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE
TSRA TEMPO BY AN HOUR AS GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DID NOT GO AS LATE
AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...BUT STARTED TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
FORCING IS ONCE AGAIN MUDDLED SO TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
CHALLENGE TODAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE STORMS DUE
TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UPWARDS
OF 30 KT TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND HAVE A DRY
FORECAST BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL SHRA OR TSRA
MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. MAY SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS IN THE AFTN AND
PERHAPS THE EVENING AS WELL.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA LATE OVERNIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY DURING THE DAY AND CHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR PSBL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
DZ
.&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
401 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH MAX WINDS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE
UP TO 30 KT. STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS PLANNED.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE TODAY ALONG WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT.
WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE LOWS COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INITIALLY BE STRONG
AT 15 TO 25 KT BUT WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.
THE NEXT LOW FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND
PUSHES EAST. WINDS TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS IN HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE WHEN IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY BUT THINKING THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 KT
OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SITS OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WINDS
TURN NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK AS WELL.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
335 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE
SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE
REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH
IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST
12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND
ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE
AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME
CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN
WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A
MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS
SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING
EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE
DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S
NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK
DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN.
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD
ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT
AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL
SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
STORMS.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND
RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN
HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.
ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP
MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE
MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF
A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY S WINDS REDEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL
THIS AFTN.
* MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL.
* ISOL TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NW TODAY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL.
FIRST...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND THINKING
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THOSE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER RFD EARLY THIS
MORNING. SITES TO OUR NORTH AND SOME TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE
REPORTING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...BUT THOSE ARE CLOSELY TIED TO AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION. LEFT SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS...BUT THINKING RFD HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP.
ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE
TSRA TEMPO BY AN HOUR AS GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DID NOT GO AS LATE
AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...BUT STARTED TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
FORCING IS ONCE AGAIN MUDDLED SO TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
CHALLENGE TODAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE STORMS DUE
TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UPWARDS
OF 30 KT TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND HAVE A DRY
FORECAST BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL SHRA OR TSRA
MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. MAY SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS IN THE AFTN AND
PERHAPS THE EVENING AS WELL.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA LATE OVERNIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY DURING THE DAY AND CHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR PSBL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
DZ
.&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1255 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
857 PM CDT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA HAS WANED FOR THE MOMENT BUT
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CWA FROM NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SUB-SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ARE STILL THE MAIN THREAT WITH A FEW MESONET SITES TO
THE WEST SHOWING GUSTS NEAR 30 KT...BUT EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO GET STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. NORTHWESTERN AREAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER COVERAGE
AND SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPOTTY ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FIRE
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF A BETTER ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL IOWA WHERE MORE ABUNDANT THUNDER COVERAGE EXISTS. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY TONIGHT AFTER
THE NEXT ROUND COMES THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT COVERAGE MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WAVE. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD IN THE NEAR TERM TO BETTER FIT TRENDS...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
252 PM CDT
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS CLOUD
COVER...WITH SOME BUILDING OVER NORTHERN IL. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP...AND QUICKLY
SLIDING NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE LACK OF 0-6KM SHEAR...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER IT CAN`T BE
RULED OUT THAT A FEW CORES COULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND PRODUCE A
STRONG WIND GUST TO 50MPH...THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR WELL ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT. SO THE SCATTERED/DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN THRU THE AFTN HOURS...THEN EXPECT A
STEADY DECLINE IN COVERAGE SHORTLY AFT SUNSET. UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN BLOSSOMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN TO THE WEST THROUGH CENTRAL NE. SPC
CONTINUES TO HAVE OUR FORECAST AREA IN GENERAL CONVECTION...WHICH
BLENDS WELL WITH EARLIER THINKING.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NEAR 90 DEG IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE MOIST
BOUNDARY HAS ALSO PUSHED NORTHEAST INTO THE CWFA...AS DEW POINTS
HAVE JUMPED IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 60S. THE EXCEPTION IS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IN...ALTHOUGH DEW PTS ARE BEGINNING TO CLIMB
TO NEAR 60 LATE THIS AFTN. AN ISOLATED TSRA REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A PONTIAC TO CHICAGO LINE. THIS IS TIED TO A
WEAK WAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW...AND COULD HAVE BROUGHT
LOWER POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. HI-RES LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING COULD HOLD ON UNTIL DAYBREAK MON...WHICH COULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
MONDAY...
LLVL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY MON...WITH THE WEAK RIDGE PUSHING TO THE
EAST. SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR MON IS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISC...WITH THE CWFA SEEING SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT THE SFC. SOME TURNING IN THE WIND FIELDS DEVELOPS MON
AFTN...AND WITH DRY AIR ARRIVING ALOFT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
EASILY DEVELOP INTO A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER OR POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. TEMPS MON WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MILD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S. WITH THE MOIST CONVEYOR OVERHEAD...DEW POINTS THROUGH
THE DAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S...CREATING A HUMID ENVIRONMENT.
TUESDAY...
SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED FOR ARRIVAL TUE...WHICH WILL BRING
A BRIEF END TO THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY IN THE MORNING SOME
LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH BY MIDDAY THE ENTIRE CWFA SHOULD BE DRY.
THE BIGGER CHALLENGE FOR TUE WILL BE ON HOW WARM TEMPS CAN BECOME.
SFC WINDS BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATE A SLIGHT NW TURN WITH
850MB TEMPS HOLDING ARND 10-13 DEG C. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
GENERALLY A WEST FLOW AT THE SFC...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80S
AND FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 TEMPS SHUD PUSH EVEN
WARMER INTO THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID-80S.
MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST IN THE EVENING...HOWEVER ENOUGH OF
SFC RIDGING SHUD KEEP DRY CONDS THRU THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THEN THE MID-LVL FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS TO A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP
WITH GUIDANCE PUSHING A WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUE NGT.
THIS SHUD LIKELY ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WED MORNING.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MID-LVL WAVE WILL ARRIVE WED
MORNING...AND SOME TURNING IN THE WIND FIELDS ARE NOTED. SHEAR
CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EARLY WED...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WED. PROGGED
PWAT VALUES HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST CYCLE...HOWEVER
FEEL THAT WITH THE SETUP THAT THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND A RETURN TO
NEARLY 1.75-2" VALUES WILL RETURN...FOCUSED STILL FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA OR SOUTH OF I-80 WED. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PRECISE PATH. AS THE WAVE NEARS THE REGION
WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK WED...CONVECTION COULD ALREADY BE GOING BY
DAYBREAK WED...AND SHUD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF WITH
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. THE WILDCARD WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EITHER WAY...SHEAR VECTORS UPSTREAM OF THE CWFA
ARE HOVERING BETWEEN 50-60KTS AND RATHER UNIFORM IN DIRECTION
POINTED EAST/SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SFC RIDGE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO AND STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED
NGT/THUR. THIS WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S FOR THUR AND IN THE
LOW/MID 60S FOR AREAS OF NORTHEAST IL. THIS SFC RIDGE FEATURE THIS
SLOWS AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK TO CONTINUE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...AS THE 500MB FLOW REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH A SEMI-ZONAL
LOOK. THIS WILL EXPEDITE SYSTEMS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TO
THE EAST. THERE IS A SUBTLE SUGGESTION BY THE ENSEMBLES THAT FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND A MID-LVL TROUGH BAY TRY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PIVOT EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. SUPPORT FOR SUCH A
SCENARIO LOOKS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO BE RATHER
SEASONAL...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY BIG WARM-UPS EITHER FOR THE BULK
OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER IF THE FORECASTED PRECIP DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...AND SOILS CAN FURTHER DRY...ANY PERIOD OF SUNSHINE
COULD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM WELL ABOVE CURRENT GUIDANCE. PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOES HOWEVER LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY S WINDS REDEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL
THIS AFTN.
* MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL.
* ISOL TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NW TODAY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL.
FIRST...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND THINKING
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THOSE STORMS WILL MOVE OVER RFD EARLY THIS
MORNING. SITES TO OUR NORTH AND SOME TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE
REPORTING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...BUT THOSE ARE CLOSELY TIED TO AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION. LEFT SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS...BUT THINKING RFD HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP.
ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE
TSRA TEMPO BY AN HOUR AS GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DID NOT GO AS LATE
AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED...BUT STARTED TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
FORCING IS ONCE AGAIN MUDDLED SO TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
CHALLENGE TODAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE STORMS DUE
TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UPWARDS
OF 30 KT TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND HAVE A DRY
FORECAST BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL SHRA OR TSRA
MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. MAY SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS IN THE AFTN AND
PERHAPS THE EVENING AS WELL.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA LATE OVERNIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY DURING THE DAY AND CHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR PSBL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
DZ
.&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 848 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014
Will be updating the forecast soon to make minor adjustments to
shower and t-storm wording and to tweak temperatures - especially
hourly temps in the gridded forecast. The early evening convection
has dissipated in most areas, with the exception of scattered showers
in an axis of higher dewpoints/instability primarily west of the
Illinois River. Expect the scattered showers and isolated t-storms
to come to an end in the next couple of hours.
The next round of showers/t-storms will move into the area as the
remnants of the MCS in western Iowa/NW Missouri advance eastward.
At this time it appears that the best chances for convection will
be Monday morning. However, scattered showers and a few t-storms
can be expected toward early morning in west central Illinois and
around daybreak or shortly thereafter west of I-55.
The moderately strong cool pool from the thunderstorms this
afternoon has resulted in cooler temperatures than anticipated in
eastern Illinois. Thus, will adjust the hourly gridded forecast
accordingly, but with dew points in the mid-upper 60s will leave
overnight lows alone.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014
Used a blend of interpolating current regional radar imagery and
short range models to time the next round of showers and t-storms
in central and eastern IL. The broken line of convection in east
central IA is expected to reach the IL river valley around 10z,
the I-55 corridor around 11z and east central IL around 13z. Many
of the short range models including the HRRR and local WRF
indicate that this line will continue to weaken. Thus, will only
go with VCTS at the TAF sites for now.
The better chance for convection will from mid-morning in the IL
River valley to late morning-early afternoon east of I-57. An
upper level shortwave trough moving toward the mid MS Valley will
provide the lift for the moist and unstable air to produce showers
and t-storms. MVFR ceilings and visibility will most likely
accompany the showers and t-storms due to abundant low level
moisture.
Convection may redevelop during the afternoon along any number of
low level boundaries and increasing, diurnal instability. However
confidence is low as to the location this scattered convection
will occur, so will go with VCTS for now. Early evening will see
an end to the convection as the best forcing mechanisms move to
the east of the region. This will leave us with a VFR ceiling and
slightly less wind.
Miller
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 247 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014
Models again look very similar with overall pattern in the upper
levels and with sfc features, over the next several days. The
differences in the models have to do with the timing and location
of the qpf tonight through early next week. Main concern with the
multiple chances of pcpn through the forecast period and
when/where there will be some dry weather in this forecast.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday
Scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing early this evening, but
are diurnal and should dissipate later this evening, leaving a dry
forecast with partly cloudy skies. High dewpoint air will be
around tomorrow, like today, in advance of a cold front
approaching from the northwest. With cwa being in the
warm/moisture sector just ahead of the front, pcpn appears likely
for tomorrow, across the who area. The front will move close to
the area tomorrow night, but not get into the cwa until Tue
morning. As pcpn moves through the area tomorrow, pops will become
chance category tomorrow night and then become dry for Tuesday. As
the cold front begins to lift back north as a warm front, a low
pressure area will develop out west and be the focus for a
thunderstorm complex Tue night over eastern Neb/western Iowa. This
complex of storms will approach the area late Tue evening and then
reach into the area after midnight Tue night and remain over the
area through Wed morning. So looking at likely pops for late Tue
night through Wed morning over the cwa. Models then differ on what
things will look like rest of Wed over the area, but will be
keeping likely and chc pops for the day. Will be interesting to
see what the mode of convection will be late Tue night through Wed
morning.
Temps will remain in the 80s next two days ahead of the frontal
system, and then get cooler for Wed, though still warm in the
south/southeast parts of the cwa.
LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday
Depending on the speed of the system for Wed/Wed night, pcpn will
likely linger in the southeast Wed night. So will keep likely pops
in the southeast Wed night. The front now looks to push south of
the area, but will be keeping chc pops in across the southern half of
the area Thur through Friday. The finally a dry period in the
forecast for Fri night and Sat before the next system moves into
the area with more pcpn, for Sat night and Sun. Temps through the
extended period will be on the cooler side as the front slides
south of the area and winds will be out of the north to northeast.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
147 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
PREVIOUS UPDATE SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH THE ADMONISHMENT OF
SHOWERS IN THE NE SECTION OF THE CWA. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN KY AS WELL...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MORE
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. OVERALL...ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO BE PANNING OUT VERY WELL. UPDATED
THE NEAR TERM WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE SURE THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS WERE REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY PUT OUT A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES EAST OF JACKSON. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA...FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER BEFORE FADING
OUT. AS SUCH...WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT TEMPORARILY HIGHER
POPS AND THUNDERS CHANCES IN THIS AREA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD/SKY
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS WITH ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
VIRGINIA. THIS FLOW HAS BROUGHT AMPLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE STATE RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE JKL CWA THE
PCPN HAS BEEN MORE FLEETING WITH JUST A FEW PINHEAD SHOWERS NOTED...
LARGELY DUE TO A WARM NOTCH AROUND 650 MBS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S...SO THE INSTABILITY IS THERE BUT ANY TRIGGERS HAVE BEEN TOO WEAK
TO SUSTAIN STORMS HERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
BEEN SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON RADAR. THE HRRR SEEMS OUT OF
TOUCH WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A POP UP SO HAVE NOT REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM
THE GRIDS. A BETTER CHANCE MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING PER MULTIPLE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
THE NAM12. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED SOME LOW...BUT RELEVANT...
POPS IN THIS PART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND VALLEY FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THESE GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF JACKSON. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWN
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT THAT WILL ACT AS A CAP AND KEEP
ALL THE BUILDUPS BELOW 12K FEET. AS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN AND THE AREAL
EXTEND WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DROP OFF AGAIN
NEAR DAWN AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTING THE GFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
UNREALISTIC DEWPOINTS THE MODEL IS GENERATING. WITH THE DEWPOINTS TO
HIGH...IT TAKES MUCH LESS CONVECTION AND LIFT TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL CHOICE HAS BEEN THE NAM AND HRRR FOR THE
FORECAST. THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE LOWS A
BIT HIGHER AND THE HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATION
ADJUSTMENTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THE FIRST OF A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA
FIRST THING TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP WITH THE FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKELY TO GET
ANY MID LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUPPORT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM
AND LIKELY DROP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHES IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK TO
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT NEAR THE AREA AGAIN...THIS WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST BY SATURDAY WITH GFS AND ECMWF
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES OFF TO THE SOUTH
WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...OPTED TO SQUEEZE A FEW DRY PERIODS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
AND LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN INCREASING TREND ACROSS THE REGION.
SCT TO BKN CIGS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LAYER OF BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS IN THE 10K LEVEL.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY /IF NOT HAMPERED BY THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY
TO HAVE AN EFFECT AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INCREASE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SPAWN SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF
THE REGION...THOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES. WITHOUT KNOWING WHERE THIS CONVECTION
WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP...AND HOW FAR EAST TOWARDS THE TAF SITES IT
WILL TRAVEL...CHOSE TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
549 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
CONCERNS FOCUS ON AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE WRN CWA JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS GENERALLY RESULTED
IN LITTLE TO NO PCPN OVER UPPER MI FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS. YESTERDAYS RAIN SHOWERS AND THE CONTINUED MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS HOWEVER RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS
FOG/STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INLAND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SE PORTION OF UPPER MI ALONG LAKE MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.
EXPECT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL
DIURNAL MIXING HELPS SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVELS BY LATE MORNING. WITH
SPOTTER REPORTS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE KEWEENAW HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 11 AM.
THE LATEST HRRR RUN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF
SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER WI. ONE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SCNTRL
WI INTO NE WI LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ALONG THETA-E RDG AXIS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WHILE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WRN WI IS TIED TO MID-LVL
Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH MN AND NE IA AND
LIFT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BAND OVER SCNTRL ERN WI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALLY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SE UPPER
MI. MEANWHILE...THE RAIN BAND OVER WRN AND NCNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SUPPORTING IT ROTATES
NE FROM MN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF
APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG AND PWATS TO NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
35-40 KT MAY ALLOW SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT MAIN THREATS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO ERN COUNTIES MAINLY
AFT 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TIED WITH THE
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOC SECONDARY COLD FRONT ROTATES THROUGH
THE AREA. LINGERING INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND NEG
SHOWALTER INDICES COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TSRA INTO AT LEAST
THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN A
TRANSITION TO ANOTHER PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS THIS LOWS CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...A LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OR WESTERN U.P. EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE FEATURES SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE EXPECTED LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY VALUES IN THE
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO SHIFT EAST BUT WILL ALSO BE
PULLED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WILL ATTEMPT TO
SHIFT THE POPS (CHANCES) EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHILE ALSO
DIMINISHING THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE DEEP MOISTURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST...SO WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO A WEST TO
EAST DIMINISHING TREND TO THE FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TREND
SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20KTS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS (25
KTS) OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE DIFFICULT ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM START TO THE
DAY...THEN COOLING WITH THE MORNING RAIN SHOWERS...BEFORE WARMING
AGAIN WITH SOME SUN IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH THE
KEWEENAW MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT FROM A PARENT HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK SHIFT EAST. IT WAS HINTED AT YESTERDAY AND CONTINUED WITH
TODAYS 00Z RUNS THAT A FINAL SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...SO WILL JUST
MENTION A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME OVER THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...MAY SEEM SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP
MOVES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
KEEP THINGS COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR (TEMPS IN THE 50S)...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST WHERE THE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS AND A LITTLE STRONGER
WINDS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOWER
70S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER.
BEHIND THIS LAST WAVE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER FOR THE U.P. THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND
GENERALLY NORMAL TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S (SOME UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY NIGHT) FOR
LOWS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND LEAD TO THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS WAVE COULD LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS NEARING WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL JUST SHOW SOME INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL VARY ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA SHOWN BY THEM AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LIGHT WINDS AND FOG/STRATUS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR AT KIWD... LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW AND VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCMX. EXPECT THE
MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK MONDAY TO PUSH INTO W
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 30KTS THROUGH THE FCST
PD. LIGHTER WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT AREAS
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE SO HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN ZONE OF LAKE. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR LSZ162-
240>250-263>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
405 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL HANDLING
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF WI...WHERE
THEY HAD FEWER CLOUDS /INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY/. MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ARE ABUNDANT IN THIS AREA...AND AS EXPECTED
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF AWAY FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI.
GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.5 IN OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 180-220 PERCENT OF NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR 1.6 TO 1.8IN. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT OR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN
WI...AROUND 45MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR AREA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A BIT
STRONGER...EVEN THROUGH INSTABILITY LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO MORE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FAR E UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 10-15KTS...TEMPS
HAVE ROSE NEAR 80F INLAND FROM LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON...AND HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT /MAINLY AT RACO/. THE WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z...AND WAS TAKEN
OFF THE TOP NEWS EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO NEAR THIS
AREA...BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC IS KEEPING MUCH IF ANYTHING FROM
ACCUMULATING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...NOT ONLY AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 50S.
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR W WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY...LIKELY AROUND SE LAKE SUPERIOR/E UPPER
MI. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE
SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID 70S OVER THE W HALF...AND LIKELY FAR E UPPER MI ON MONDAY.
LOOK FOR MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RESIDE OF THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z /NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THERE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST/...BEFORE EXPANDING E THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN A
TRANSITION TO ANOTHER PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS THIS LOWS CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...A LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OR WESTERN U.P. EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE FEATURES SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE EXPECTED LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY VALUES IN THE
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO SHIFT EAST BUT WILL ALSO BE
PULLED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WILL ATTEMPT TO
SHIFT THE POPS (CHANCES) EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHILE ALSO
DIMINISHING THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE DEEP MOISTURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST...SO WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO A WEST TO
EAST DIMINISHING TREND TO THE FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TREND
SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20KTS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS (25
KTS) OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE DIFFICULT ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM START TO THE
DAY...THEN COOLING WITH THE MORNING RAIN SHOWERS...BEFORE WARMING
AGAIN WITH SOME SUN IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH THE
KEWEENAW MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT FROM A PARENT HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK SHIFT EAST. IT WAS HINTED AT YESTERDAY AND CONTINUED WITH
TODAYS 00Z RUNS THAT A FINAL SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...SO WILL JUST
MENTION A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME OVER THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...MAY SEEM SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP
MOVES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
KEEP THINGS COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR (TEMPS IN THE 50S)...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST WHERE THE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS AND A LITTLE STRONGER
WINDS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOWER
70S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER.
BEHIND THIS LAST WAVE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER FOR THE U.P. THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND
GENERALLY NORMAL TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S (SOME UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY NIGHT) FOR
LOWS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND LEAD TO THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS WAVE COULD LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS NEARING WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL JUST SHOW SOME INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL VARY ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA SHOWN BY THEM AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LIGHT WINDS AND FOG/STRATUS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR AT KIWD... LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW AND VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCMX. EXPECT THE
MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK MONDAY TO PUSH INTO W
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FALL BELOW 3MI VIS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE W HALF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE E HALF. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS W LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS A LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S
JAMES BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON
BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162-240>250-263>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL HANDLING
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF WI...WHERE
THEY HAD FEWER CLOUDS /INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY/. MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ARE ABUNDANT IN THIS AREA...AND AS EXPECTED
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF AWAY FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI.
GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.5 IN OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 180-220 PERCENT OF NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR 1.6 TO 1.8IN. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT OR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN
WI...AROUND 45MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR AREA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A BIT
STRONGER...EVEN THROUGH INSTABILITY LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO MORE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FAR E UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 10-15KTS...TEMPS
HAVE ROSE NEAR 80F INLAND FROM LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON...AND HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT /MAINLY AT RACO/. THE WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z...AND WAS TAKEN
OFF THE TOP NEWS EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO NEAR THIS
AREA...BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC IS KEEPING MUCH IF ANYTHING FROM
ACCUMULATING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...NOT ONLY AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 50S.
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR W WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY...LIKELY AROUND SE LAKE SUPERIOR/E UPPER
MI. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE
SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID 70S OVER THE W HALF...AND LIKELY FAR E UPPER MI ON MONDAY.
LOOK FOR MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RESIDE OF THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z /NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THERE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST/...BEFORE EXPANDING E THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AFTER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...FCST WILL HINGE UPON HOW FAST THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN OR HOW FAST IT IS FORCED E BY NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS W AND
CNTRL NAMERICA. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WET WEATHER HERE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA...THEN DRY WEATHER MID
AND LATE WEEK AS APPROACHING MID/UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A TYPICAL
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN AS ICE FILLED HUDSON BAY AND THE CHILLY
GREAT LAKES ENHANCE SFC HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT. IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...TEMPS THIS WEEK SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM EARLY JUNE
NORMALS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TEMPS SOMEWHAT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST WEATHER IN THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
BEGINNING MON NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR OR PERHAPS FAR WRN UPPER MI AND THEN ON INTO NRN ONTARIO BY
TUE MORNING. BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL
BE DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE AS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA AND MIDLEVEL DRYING ARRIVES. THIS DRYING IS MORE PRONOUNCED
OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS...MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN
MON AFTN MOVING INTO UPPER MI EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE W MON NIGHT. ALONG WITH APPROACH
OF THE ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROF...SOME SHRA WILL
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE W. AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPS E ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SHRA CHANCES WILL SPREAD E TUE
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING MAY FURTHER AID EXPANSION OF SHRA TUE OVER
THE E. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER OVER
THE E...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS EARLY IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH ALMOST NO MLCAPE INDICATED...WILL LEAVE THUNDER
MENTION OUT. BULK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY
JUST N OF UPPER MI...SO STEADIER RAIN SHOULD PASS BY TO THE N.
HOWEVER...THE KEWEENAW MAY GET BRUSHED BY THE MORE PERSISTENT SHRA
TUE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
CHILLY/MISERABLE AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND
BRISK WNW WINDS OFF COLD LAKE SUPERIOR. FOG THAT WILL BE EXPANDING
AND BECOMING MORE DENSE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/MON AND PROBABLY
DEVELOPING ON NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKES WHENEVER WINDS ARE ONSHORE. THE FOG WILL CLEAR OFF THE
LAKES TUE.
LINGERING SHRA SHOULD END FROM SW TO NE TUE AFTN AND TUE NIGHT AS
MID/UPPER TROF SLOWLY EDGES E. WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR WED/THU AS MID/UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
-SHRA/SPRINKLES AT SOME POINT LATER WED/EARLY THU DUE TO ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE ECMWF IS STRONGEST
WITH THIS FEATURE...FOLLOWED BY THE GEM. THE GFS IS WEAKEST AND
SHOWS NO IMPACT FROM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BACKING OFF ON
THIS WAVE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/PARTLY CLOUDY FCST. ALSO...CONCERNS
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SHORTWAVES TRACKING E ACROSS THE
CNTRL CONUS AND BRINGING A SHRA THREAT TO THE FCST AREA ARE
BASICALLY GONE NOW AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW DEPARTING
TROF/APPROACHING RIDGE SUPPRESSING SHORTWAVES. OTHERWISE...GRADIENT
NRLY WIND DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING S FROM NRN MANITOBA/HUDSON
BAY/NRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD A CHILLY DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON WED.
EXPECT 50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH MANY LAKESIDE LOCATIONS PROBABLY
HOLDING IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WELL IN THE INTERIOR...
EXPECT 60S TO LWR 70S. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW SIDE
OF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR
MASS. THU NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES
RIDGE OVERHEAD. TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS MIGHT SLIP INTO THE UPPER
30S.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...FCST FOR FRI THRU THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS W AND CNTRL NAMERICA CAN
EITHER PUSH RIDGE EASTWARD OR SUPPRESS IT. USUALLY THERE IS A BIAS
TO BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO QUICKLY IN THE LONGER RANGE...SO PLAN TO
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN REPRESENTED BY THE
ECMWF FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER
TO LINGER FRI/SAT AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
TO HUDSON BAY. TRAILING...DECAYING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE
MAY BRING SOME -SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI AS EARLY AS LATE FRI. WILL BE
SOMETHING TO LOOK FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR SUN AS IT APPEARS TROF WILL FORCE RIDGE
EASTWARD. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER FRI/SAT...BUT
OVERALL...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LIGHT WINDS AND FOG/STRATUS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR AT KIWD... LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW AND VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCMX. EXPECT THE
MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK MONDAY TO PUSH INTO W
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FALL BELOW 3MI VIS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE W HALF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE E HALF. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS W LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS A LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S
JAMES BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON
BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162-240>250-263>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
DENSE FOG IS MAKING A STRONG PUSH INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING AS OBSERVED ON AREA WEB CAMS. THIS VERIFIES WELL WITH THE
LATEST HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING A PUSH OF FOG INLAND TONIGHT.
THE APPROACHING MESO-LOW TO THE SW IS PRODUCING RAPID PRESSURE
FALLS TO THE WEST AND ALLOWING THE WINDS ACROSS WRN LS TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE N/NE AND DRAWING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE IN ACROSS THE
TWIN PORTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE
ZONES AND ALSO THE LAND ZONES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND AROUND THE
TWIN PORTS.
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV TRACK NEWD INTO THE AREA AND THE
UPPER S/W LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 500MB S/W WILL BE THE
MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ALLOW THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT ATMOSPHERE TO BE TAPPED...AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MDT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HVY RAIN IN ISO/SCT T-STORMS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ST. LOUIS RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. A SIGNIFICANT DUMP OF RAIN WAS SEEN THIS
EVENING AROUND HIBBING...WITH OVER 2 INCHES IN VERY SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS WATER...COMBINED WITH THE RAIN THAT FALLS TONIGHT
IN THE ST. LOUIS BASIN WILL DRAIN QUICKLY IN THE SATURATED SOILS
AND CAUSE THE RIVER LEVEL TO RISE RAPIDLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE SOGGY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST SAW LIGHT RAIN OR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE TODAY AS
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE IRON RANGE/MN ARROWHEAD. THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
AS A SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND TRACKS OVER NORTHERN
MN THROUGH MONDAY.
THE PERIOD FOR BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL
ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...TRANSLATING EAST
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCT THUNDER IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES INTO NW WISCONSIN. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE THE
DRY SLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY LIMIT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE LOW AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THERE IS A CORRIDOR OF LARGE MID LEVEL OMEGA ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE LOW THAT LIFTS OVER NE MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
OFF ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN AND
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER GOING OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
SHIFT EAST THE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A BAND OF RAIN...CLOUDY
AND COOL CONDITIONS WHICH CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
RAIN CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY TO SEE GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...WITH SOME SUNSHINE APPEARING FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN
HALF BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
70S AS WESTERLIES BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES TO FALL
OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE RIDGE HELPING
TO PUSH A BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SOME MODELS ARE PUSHING A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AND HAVE ONLY SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR NOW. HAVE HIGHS RISING INTO
THE LOW 70S BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS STILL IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH MODEST STRENGTHENING AND AN INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER S/W MOVES
IN FROM THE SW. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. EAST WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
VSBYS AND CIGS LOW AROUND DLH THROUGH MONDAY MID MORNING. IFR CIGS
AND MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MON MORNING ELSEWHERE WITH A
GRADUAL LIFT TO MVFR/VFR IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. RAIN COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
DRYING OUT TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS. LGT VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SWLY ON MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY W/NWLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
GUSTY...UP TO 20 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 72 50 69 / 60 30 10 10
INL 51 73 45 74 / 70 20 10 10
BRD 55 76 53 74 / 50 10 10 10
HYR 56 72 48 73 / 50 30 10 10
ASX 50 70 46 66 / 60 40 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ012-019>021-025-026-
033>038.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
037.
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1212 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
STILL STUCK IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN TO START THIS PERIOD...THOUGH
WE WILL FINALLY START TURNING THE CORNER IN TERMS OF ROOTING THIS
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OUT OF HERE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...THERE ARE TWO KEY FEATURES THAT WILL IMPACT THE MPX
CWA...THE FIRST IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER SE SODAK THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MPX
AREA AS IT WORK NE THIS EVENING. THE SECOND FEATURE IS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH BACK BY THE BLACK HILLS THAT WILL BRING A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LIGHTER AND LIKELY MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF SW
MN INTO THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
OUT THE GATE...WE HAVE SEE AN E-W ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS NRN IA WITHIN A ZONE OF CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT IS
GETTING FORCED UP AND OVER AN OUTFLOW INDUCED BOUNDARY. BIG QUESTION
FOR THE MPX AREA IS HOW WILL THIS IMPACT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY
FROM ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THIS WILL KEEP THE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE TRAINING IS MORE
LIKELY...BUT MESOANALYSIS HAS SHOWN THAT MLCAPES ACROSS WRN MN HAVE
RECOVERED TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OUT IN WRN MN WHERE THE SUN
HAS BRIEFLY MADE AN APPEARANCE. AS THIS CLEARING WORKS EAST...DO
EXPECT THE CAPE RECOVERY TO WORK EAST WITH IT AS WELL...SO LINE
CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE NEAR SIOUX FALLS WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO
SRN MN. FOLLOWED THE HRRR TO WORK THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AS IT HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON IT ALL
AFTERNOON AND IT MATCHES UP WELL WITH HOW THE HRRR BRINGS ANOTHER
SURGE OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO MN AHEAD OF THE
SODAK SHORT WAVE. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE ABOUT TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE IS WE ACTUALLY HAVE SHEAR TODAY...SO WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH A MAINLY WIND THREAT WITH THIS LINE AS IT WORKS ENE.
THERE IS GOOD NEWS THOUGH ABOUT THE ADDITION OF SHEAR TODAY...AND
THAT IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AS WE
HEAD FARTHER OUT IN TIME...SO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...NSSL Q3 RADAR ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT A LARGE SWATH OF OUR AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH PARTS WESTERN STEARNS COUNTY UP CLOSER TO 8 INCHES OF
RAIN SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTED THIS NEXT
BATCH OF STORMS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE...RECENT WET CONDITIONS
HAVE OUR FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS AT INCREDIBLY LOW LEVELS AT THE
MOMENT...WITH CURRENT 1 HR AND 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DOWN IN
THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.
THIS SECONDARY WAVE BACK IN NODAK IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE AS
TO HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITH IT...BUT EXPECT IT TO INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE NW CWA LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. GOING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...THIS WILL WILL TRAVEL
MORE OR LESS DOWN I-94...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDS. FORTUNATELY...ANY ACTIVITY WE
SEE MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHTER /AS PWATS BEGIN TO RECEDE FROM
THERE CURRENT LEVELS AROUND 1.75 INCHES...WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. SO FOR THAT
REASON...CONTINUED TO LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE THROUGH 18Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
BY MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT... AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME NEED TO KEEP POPS GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
LINGERING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.
AFTER THAT... WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO KEEP THINGS DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... AT THAT POINT
WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEP
BACK NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA... CLOSER TO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY... FRONTOGENESIS... AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER... CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PCPN FARTHER NORTH GIVEN
SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE 700-500MB LAYER AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED NORTH AND SATURATE THINGS NEAR 700MB.
SO... ALLOWED FOR CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SCOOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
NEXT SYSTEM AFTER THAT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY AS FLOW TURNS A
LITTLE MORE ZONAL. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THEN HEADS MORE EASTERLY BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEAST AGAIN. MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF ANY LEAD
SHORT WAVES AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT LOOKS
LIKE MN/WI WILL BE BACK IN UPPER SW FLOW LATE THIS WEEK...MERITING
CHANCE POPS. WITH UPPER LOW NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE BORDER... THIS
WILL NOT BE AN EXCEEDINGLY WARM PERIOD...AND IN FACT...TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. ONCE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
NEXT WEEKEND...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 70 NEXT WEEKEND OVER CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WISC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AND IMPACT MANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
09 TO 10Z. BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHSIDE OF THE LOW AND CIGS WILL LIFT.
DEEP MIXING WILL LIFT CIGS FURTHER AS WINDS GUST TO 30 KT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...BUT CHANCES HAVE DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
KMSP...MVFR CIGS HAVE ARRIVED...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
PERIODS THAT SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS FILL IN
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH RESPECT TO HOW LOW CIGS
GO...SEVERAL UPSTREAM OBS ARE IFR OE LOWER. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED OVERNIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND E-SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>043-048-
049-055>057.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...TDK/TRH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
Overall pattern has changed to a more progressive and unsettled
regime through the upcoming week. While there will no doubt be
periods when there will be no precipitation the proximity of a
couple frontal boundaries and the vagaries of the models further out
in time will make it difficult to go dry in most periods.
Short term concerns will focus on the evolution of upstream
convection over NE and KS and any severe threat over northwest MO. A
number of Hi Res models such as the HRRR and local WRF as well as
the latest NAM and GFS track the current developing NE MCS eastward.
At the same time activity blossoms southward towards central KS
where a strengthening southerly low-level jet feeds moderately
unstable air under an increasingly diffluent flow aloft. Too many
models favor this evolution to ignore. These models propagate the KS
convection southeast this evening which is supported by the Corfidi
vectors. As the the low level jet veers overnight it will maintain
the KS MCS as it moves into southwest MO. The convection in between
these two core MCSs will likely weaken as it moves into the western
CWA late this evening. The severe threat will be confined to
northwest MO this evening with an isolated severe wind gust
possible.
By sunrise the main portion of the convection is expected to be near
or have exited the eastern and southern counties. However, can`t
rule out scattered convection bubbling back up during the morning
and afternoon hours as the southwesterly low-level jet will enhance
convergence along any residual outflow boundaries as well as a weak
cold front entering the CWA. Temperatures will be problematic due to
any convection as well as residual cloud cover.
Monday night into Tuesday could see scattered convection pop-up
wherever the weak cold front stalls, which favors the southern
counties. Shortwave riding aloft spreads eastward across the Central
Plains on Tuesday allowing an elevated warm mixed layer to spread
east while the front retreats northeast as a warm front. As has been
noted for the last couple of days the combination of moderate to
strong shear coupled with strong instability and the added low-level
shear along/north of the warm front signal the increasing likelihood
of severe storms along and north of the warm front. Models have been
trending lifting the warm front further north over the past couple
of runs, pushing the convection and severe threat from northern MO
into IA.
Wednesday could see a trailing cold front settle south through the
CWA, but not before temperatures could reach 90 over the southern
half of the forecast area. This boundary will become the focus for
any additional rain chances. The GFS and ECMWF have settle this
front to near the MO/AR border by Thursday before it stalls.
Confidence has improved on this occurring and have started to lower
PoPs across at least northern MO for Thursday and Friday. Convective
chances increase as we head into next weekend as another moderately
strong upper trough sweeps through the Rockies and forces the front
north as a warm front, allowing rain chances to increase over the
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
The main line of thunderstorms has moved through the terminals
however the terminals will be affected by stratiform rain with an
ocnl lightning strike thru 07Z-08Z with vsbys being reduced to 5SM. GFS
MOS, GFS LAMP and to a lesser extend NAM MOS guidance cont to
indicate a period of MVFR cigs from 11Zthru most of the morning
hours. However, there is some concern that MVFR may not materialize
as not has developed upstream behind the stratiform rain and NAM BUFR
soundings has pulled back on MVFR cigs for this morning. Otherwise,
cigs should scatter out around 3kft by 16Z with a bkn mid lvl deck.
Winds will be out of the south around 10kts overnight while veering
to the southwest around 10kts by daybreak. By the afternoon, the
frontal boundary will move into the VC of the terminals and wind will
shift to the south btn 5-10kts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE REMAINING KANSAS COUNTIES FROM THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND UPDATED THE FORECAST. CONTINUING TO
MONITOR THE APPROACHING LINE OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA...AS THEY APPEAR TO HAVE THE MOMENTUM GOING TO REACH AT
LEAST THE WESTERN BOUNDARIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HRRR SEEMS TO
BE DOING PRETTY WELL HANDLING THIS LINE OF STORMS THUS FAR...
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING THIS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AROUND 4-6Z...AND STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THIS MODEL
GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
STORM EVOLUTION BEHAVED PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
CONCENTRATING OVER KS ZONES AND LESS-SO NORTH OF THE STATE LINE.
HAVE ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO BE CANCELLED EARLY
FOR ALL 24 NEB COUNTIES...BUT WILL HANG ONTO 6 KS ZONES AT LEAST A
LITTLE BIT LONGER WITH ACTIVE STRONG STORMS IN THAT AREA...AND
SEVERE STORMS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
MAIN CHANGE IN FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS EVENING FROM EARLIER
THINKING IS THAT IT NOW APPEARS THAT NEW ROUND OF NORTHWEST NEB
CONVECTION MAY HAVE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF REACHING AT LEAST THE
WESTERN CWA BEFORE WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE BY THE TIME IT GETS
HERE...DECIDED IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO PUT IN A FEW HOURS OF
SLIGHT POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF AN ORD-ORLEANS LINE IN THE
WESTERN CWA FROM 9PM-MIDNIGHT. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL OBVIOUSLY BEAR CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO MAKE SURE IT DOESN/T PUSH INTO THE CWA ANY FARTHER OR
WITH MORE INTENSITY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES AREA...SHOULD IN
THEORY BE MOST FAVORED TO BE DONE WITH CONVECTION FOR THE NIGHT
PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF WESTERN NEB STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AS WAS QUITE WELL-ANTICIPATED...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE AT TIMES...HAVE BEEN ONGOING WITHIN MAINLY THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY
SLOWLY BUT SURELY EXPANDING MORE-SO INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE-CRITERIA REPORTS HAVE BEEN RATHER FEW SO
FAR...IN PART OWING TO A "MESS" OF STORM SCALE
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS DISRUPTING INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM MAINTAINING
OR REACHING PEAK POTENTIAL INTENSITY...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL NONETHELESS PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE TIME BEING...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL 30 COUNTIES THROUGH 10
PM...BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA IS ALREADY BEHIND THE MAIN...BACK
EDGE OF STORMS AND THE NORTHERN CWA APPEARS TO BE VERY WORKED OVER
BY COOLER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...SO WILL PROBABLY START TRIMMING
AWAY SOME OF THESE COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. RAINFALL-WISE...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES
BEYOND THE LIKELY BRIEF URBAN/STREET FLOODING TAKING PLACE IN
VARIOUS LOCATIONS...AND RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE
OVERESTIMATING REALITY BY AROUND ONE-THIRD BASED ON LIMITED
GROUND TRUTH. NONETHELESS...A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA HAS ALREADY
SEEN OR WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF 1-2 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ROUGHLY I-80 AND THE KS STATE
LINE.
TURNING TO THE METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION AS OF 20Z/3PM...THE MAIN
PLAYER IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS IS THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOCAL AREA
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ELEVATED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT AT THE 700MB LEVEL HAS BEEN FEEDING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF NEB/NORTHWEST KS ALL DAY...WHICH LED TO AT LEAST A
SLIGHTLY-EARLIER ONSET OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION...BUT ALSO LIKELY HELPED TO KEEP MUCH OF AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN CWA FROM REALIZING A MORE EXTENSIVE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. AT THE SURFACE...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT AN EXTENSIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD POOL
FROM THE WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS STILL IN QUESTION...ITS
STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE MUCH OF THE NEB CWA IS SEEING
A SLOWLY-WANING SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE NOTABLE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL ORGANIZED WIND THREAT MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 ALONG THE APPARENT SQUALL LINE THAT APPEARS TO BE
ORGANIZING ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS WILL
BE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...WHERE MUCH OF OUR KS ZONES ARE
CURRENTLY REALIZING 1000-2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE
PRESENCE OF GENERALLY 30-45KT OF 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
WOULD ALSO BE THE PART OF THE CWA STILL FAVORED FOR A POSSIBLE
BRIEF TORNADO THREAT...WHETHER IT BE WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE CELLS
THAT CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES FOR AWHILE...OR WITH POSSIBLE
NOTCHES/BRIEF SPIN UPS ALONG THE BACK-END TRAILING SQUALL LINE.
JUST CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THIS THREAT GIVEN AROUND 20KT OF
LOW-LEVEL 0-1KM SHEAR IN THE AREA.
AS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS EVENING...SEE
LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE WITH THE SOLUTION PRESENTED BY THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM MODELS...NAMELY THE 19Z HRRR. AS A RESULT...A GENERALLY
AT-MOST MARGINALLY SEVERE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS AND DEPART THE NORTHERN CWA...WHILE A HIGHER
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EITHER FROM
A CONTINUATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION...OR OTHER AT LEAST SEMI-
DISCRETE STORMS THAT MIGHT MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM JUST WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THAT ANY CONVECTION JUST NOW MOVING
INTO FAR NORTHWEST NEB DOES NOT SURVIVE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR
AREA...AREAS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LINES/CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE DONE WITH ALL CONVECTION FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...EVEN MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA
SHOULD SEE THE MAIN COVERAGE OF STORMS DEPART TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST GENERALLY DURING THE 8PM-10PM TIME FRAME. JUST IN CASE
SOME STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE
NORTHWARD INTERFACE OF THE LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BASED NEAR 850MB...LINGERED SOME SMALLER
POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES ALL THE WAY THROUGH 09Z...BUT
THIS MIGHT BE PLENTY GENEROUS. OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING PREVAILING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ONCE
THE WIND FIELD RECOVERS FROM CONVECTIVE-EFFECTS. NUDGED DOWN LOW
TEMPS SLIGHTLY...TONIGHT...RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTHWEST TO MID
60S FAR SOUTHEAST.
BRIEFLY TURNING TO THE MONDAY DAYTIME HOURS...THIS IS STILL ONE OF
THE ONLY FORECAST PERIODS TO STILL FEATURE NO MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK...AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREAD THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
THE NEXT ONE THAT TAKES AIM ON THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT
COULD STILL BE A CLOSE CALL AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY
AFTER...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE FOCUSED AT LEAST 1-2
COUNTIES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA MORE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY 10-15 MPH NORTHWEST
BREEZES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ASSUMING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS...AIMING FROM LOW-MID 80S NEB ZONES
AND MID-UPPER 80S KS ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
ALOFT: HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING HIGHS CONT TO DOMINATE THE HEMISPHERE
OVER THE BERING SEA AND FAR ERN CANADA. THE STAGNANT LONGWAVE
PATTERN BETWEEN OVER THE USA IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES THAT HAVE PUT
US BACK INTO THE PATH OF MORE ACTIVE WX. SPECIFICALLY...THE NEWLY
DEVELOPED RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN HEIGHTS AT OR
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WRN/CNTRL USA.
THE PAST THREE CYCLES OF EC/GFS/GEM/UKMET ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THRU TUE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROF. THE NEXT RIDGE ARRIVES WED FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROF WED NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER AK WILL BE FORCED SE AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY MID-WEEK
AND THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WILL SLOW IT DOWN WITH
HEIGHTS FALLING HERE. THAT MEANS A COOL DOWN AND PROBABLY THE
COOLEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE MID MAY.
SURFACE: THE TAIL END OF THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVES THRU TODAY WILL
LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL BE NEAR THE KS-NEB BORDER BY DAWN
TUE. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER CO...WITH A DRYLINE
INTENSIFYING AND MIXING INTO WRN KS...CREATING A TRIPLE POINT WITH
THE FRONT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK E ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER WED NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO THE REGION WED...WITH THE
FRONT SAGGING TO THE KS-OK BORDER. BY THU AN OCCLUDING LOW WILL BE
OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A WARM FRONT FCST TO LIFT THRU THE FCST
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ITS COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
THERE IS THEN SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST S AND E
OF THE FCST AREA.
HAZARDS: WE ARE LOOKING A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU-SAT. DID NOT LOOK
AT POTENTIAL INTENSITY DUE TO ON-GOING EVENT AND TUE POTENTIAL.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
TUE: PLEASE CONT TO FOLLOW SPC SEVERE WX OUTLOOKS AND THE HAZARDOUS
WX OUTLOOK /HWO/ AND THIS PRODUCT FOR WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE A SERIOUS
SEVERE WX THREAT. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO BE UPGRADED IN LATER SPC
OUTLOOKS.
LLJ-INDUCED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED COULD
INITIATE STORMS DURING THE MORNING HRS N OF THE WARM FRONT. IT
APPEARS STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THRU THE DAY AS
LLJ INTENSIFIES...PROBABLY FORMING AN MCS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
FORMING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EML. THE STORMS WILL REINFORCE THE
WARM FRONT AND BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE TSTMS SHOULD
ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE...WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT. WHILE SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MCS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE THE THREATS WITH THESE AFTERNOON STORMS.
USE OUR HIGH TEMPS OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH CAUTION. THEY WILL DEPEND
ON CLOUDS/RAIN. WE CURRENTLY HAVE 77-84F ALONG AND N OF I-80...BUT
MUCH OF THIS AREA COULD END UP JAMMED IN THE LOW-MID 70S. ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...HIGHS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. STOCKTON
AND PLAINVILLE WILL BE CLOSE TO 100F. WINDY S OF THE WARM FRONT!
09Z SREF CONTS TO LOOK THREATENING WITH MLCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG.
FALLING PRES TO THE W WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS BACKED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CURVATURE IN FCST HODOGRAPHS.
TUE NIGHT: ON-GOING TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE AND GROW INTO AN
MCS THAT PROPAGATES E WITH THE SFC LOW. SO TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END
HERE.
WED: BREEZY IN COOL AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD
DEVELOP OVER S-CNTRL NEB...MOST VIGOROUS N OF I-80. CANT RULE OUT A
SHWR OR A COUPLE SPRINKLES N OF HWY 92.
THU: COULD SEE A COULD SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CAP.
FRI: SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SAT: TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL. SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL CONTS.
SUN: PROBABLY DRY UNDER HIGH PRES. CONTINUED COMFORTABLY COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF HAZE OR FOG TOWARDS DAWN DUE TO THE CALM
WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER RAIN.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
FAIRLY SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE AND AMPLE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN IN A FEW DAYS...SO A BLEND WILL BE UTILIZED.
FOR TODAY...PWATS REMAIN OVER 1 INCH FOR THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE EAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT...WITH MID LEVEL FGEN/Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEP OMEGA THROUGH 250 MB. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
DEFORMATION MODERATE RAIN BAND WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 TODAY. RAIN TOTALS COULD ADD UP TO AROUND 1
INCH...PERHAPS A BIT MORE LOCALLY IN SPOTS WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS MORNING CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN THE VALLEY. TEMPS WILL NOT WARM MUCH AT ALL FOR THE
NORTH...AND BE WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...THAT SHOULD ENHANCE OVERALL LARGER SCALE
ASCENT. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL CHANCE
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ALL AREAS. IT MAY
BECOME MORE RAIN LATER TODAY IN THE NORTH WHEN ALL INSTABILITY
WILL BE GONE...BUT STRONG LIFT COULD MEAN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
NEARLY ANYWHERE TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE EAST
BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA BY 12Z TUE.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
FOR WED...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
STORMS APPROACHING THE FAR W/NW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND SHOULD APPROACH 80 IN MOST AREAS.
ON WED NIGHT...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SHOWALTERS FALLING BELOW ZERO...PWATS
AROUND 1.25 INCHES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
A FLATTENED LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. FEW SHORT WAVES FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL MAKE
FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN. ECWMF WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE
GFS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF HAVE TRENDED FASTER
OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.
WILL TRIM BACK POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS NORTHWEST ON
FRI.
HIGH TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE ON THU AND GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
DEGREES LOWER ON FRI SAT AND SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE TREND WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES AND LOWERING CIGS.
USED THE RAP GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF THESE CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN IMPROVE MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1244 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR BURKE AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES TO EXPIRE
AT 06 UTC AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE EAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALSO UPDATED POPS TO BETTER
FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS THROUGH THE EVENING BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN
THREAT THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LANDSPOUT
TORNADOES ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANY TORNADOES THAT DO
DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. A VERTICALLY STACKED COLD
CORE LOW...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 1000 J/KG CAPE ARE
SUPPORTING VIGOROUS LOW TOP SUPERCELLS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS AND SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AND BECOMES ELEVATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
THE THE 19-22 UTC RAP/HRRR FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH
SLOW MOVING...REGENERATIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOURIS BASIN INTO THE UPPER
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...HAVE HAD
MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...GIVEN PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND 0-3 KM CAPE OF
100-125 J/KG. THE FUNNEL CLOUD/NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PORTIONS OF WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES RECEIVED 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS AND THROUGH EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT...LAW ENFORCEMENT...AND PUBLIC REPORTS...THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IN
BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...AND WARD COUNTIES WERE ONGOING SINCE SUNRISE
TODAY. REPORTS AND RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN IN PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES SINCE SUNRISE.
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT/WY TO EASTERN
COLORADO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE FLOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH DAKOTA WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE IMPULSES. IN ADDITION...A SLOW-MOVING IMPULSE REMAINED
OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA - ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUING
SHOWERS MENTIONED ABOVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WAS
CENTERED NEAR GARRISON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
TOWARDS HARVEY...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR JAMESTOWN.
THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THIS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ALSO DEPICT HEAVY
RAIN ALONG A LINE FROM MINOT/BOTTINEAU TO JAMESTOWN...ROUGHLY ALONG
OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE AN
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND THUS HAVE EXPANDED
THE FLOOD WATCH (IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THAT EXPIRES JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT) TO INCLUDE THIS AREA FROM MINOT/BOTTINEAU TO JAMESTOWN.
EXPANDED THIS PORTION SO THAT IT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS KEEP A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT IN THIS AREA ALL
NIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...AND ARRIVE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE SCATTERED/ISOLATED IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT LINGERING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
UNTIL SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON...WANING BY EVENING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF HAIL OR HIGH
WINDS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF FLOODING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE SHORTWAVE THEN TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SHORT WAVE
QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON WEDNESDAY. 12 UTC MODELS ALSO SHOW THE BROAD
TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES
THURSDAY AND PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. WITH THE
SHORT WAVE RIDING UP THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY MODELS AGREEMENT IS GOOD
IN BRINGING A SURFACE LOW INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN PUSHING THE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE 12 UTC GEM-NHEM AND ECMWF START CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 12 UTC GFS HOLDS OFF
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OF WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...HOWEVER THE LATEST 12 UTC
ECMWF SPED THE SYSTEM UP. IF THE ECMWF AND GEM NHEM SOLUTION IS HOW
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS THERE
WILL LITTLE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE THE GREATEST ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL
BE AROUND 3000 J/KG IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND JUST WEST
ACCORDING TO THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER
SHEER. WITH THAT SAID WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT
FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED AT KJMS...KISN AND KMOT. MVFR STRATUS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KBIS AND KDIK.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST...KDIK TO NORTHEAST...KMOT
AFTER 22 UTC MONDAY AS CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-004-011-012-
021>023-036-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MCS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA HAS COMPLETELY ROBBED THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM OF MOISTURE. RADAR IMAGERY OF THE RETURNS THAT
WHERE MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...THE
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE.
THUS...WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WITH THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE IN THE AREA LIKELY STALLING. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DID INCREASE
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS HERE.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE LIMITED
FORCING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA IS LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND SHOULD WEAKEN OR
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. FORCING AGAIN STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNRISE ON
MONDAY...ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA (AND NO CHANGES TO POPS/WX WILL BE
MADE AFTER 12Z MON).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL. GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLING TO LATCH
ONTO ONE SOLUTION UNDER COMPLEX SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SET-UP...BUT
LATEST RAP/HRRR/LOCAL WRF STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIMILARITIES AND
WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SOLAR.
SFC LOW CENTER STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST NE/
SOUTHEAST SD WITHIN BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SD WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WRAP AROUND SFC LOW IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY JUST CLIP THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH
MUCH OF MN LAKES COUNTRY RECENTLY RECEIVING 2 TO 6 INCHES...WILL
KEEP FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO CANCEL IF
CONVECTION TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO SET-UP SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE MINOT TO BISMARCK AND DEVILS LAKE TO JAMESTOWN CORRIDOR.
STRONG RISING MOTION THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DUE TO MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLET AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW-MOVING BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO DO NOT THINK AN EXTENSION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH IS NECESSARY. LATE TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL AND WET AS SHOWERS SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
AND EAST WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD/WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S
WITH THE LAST OF THE RAIN EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SOME FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS PACIFIC STORMS MOVE
EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES GIVING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS AMONG
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE PRETTY CLOSE BUT JUST OFF ENOUGH SO THAT WE HAVE
CHANCE OF PRECIP EVER DAY THU-SAT. AT THIS POINT HARD TO PICK OUT
A MODEL OF CHOICE SO WILL UTILIZE THE BLEND TOOL. TEMPS LOOK TO
RUN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE TREND WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES AND LOWERING CIGS.
USED THE RAP GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF THESE CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN IMPROVE MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SE INTO PORTIONS OF
NW OK OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY IMPACTING BVO/TUL/RVS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. CEILINGS WILL RISE
QUICKLY BEHIND THE MAIN LINE WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. A
LIMITED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY MCS DECAYS THIS MORNING AND ANY
REMNANT BOUNDARIES REMAINING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LIGHTNING ACTION AND COLD TOPS FROM SATELLITE
IN KANSAS CONVECTIVE LINE SHIFTING TO SOUTH-
WEST PORTION OF THE LINE. HOW MUCH OF MCS AND
HOW FAR PRECIP PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
STILL IN QUESTION. HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT HRRR
AND LOOKING UPSTREAM FEEL CONFIDENT RAISING
POP FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF I44. SEVERE THREAT
ABOUT SPENT BEFORE REACHING TSA CWA OVERNIGHT.
GW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A MCS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY IN
THE BVO/TUL/RVS AREAS WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS DECAYING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS ADVANCING
ACROSS KS AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE AND
THEN SLIDE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN OK. THE
LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAVE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT IDEAS AS TO
HOW THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE UKMET KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE BORDER.
BASED ON SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THE DATA...WILL ELECT TO
MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS INSTEAD OF LIKELY POPS. NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED
BY WEAKER INSTABILITY OWING TO THE TIME OF DAY.
MID LEVEL TEMPS AND HEIGHTS RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS
SPREADS UP INTO OUR AREA. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...THE WEATHER
LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED WITH MCS ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.
LACY
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
337 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTHEAST WITH HEATING. BAND OF MODESTLY
UNSTABLE AIR SWINGING THROUGH THIS AREA AROUND RECEDING LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHEAST SEEMS TO WEAK GIVEN THE FLOW AND DRIER AIR TO
PRODUCE SPOTTY SHOWERS. AS FOR THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY...THEY SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO MARGINALLY WINDY
CATEGORY...BUT WILL GET NOWHERE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...THAT IS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 70S
TO LOW 80S...BUT THE CONTINUED MODEST DRYING WILL MAKE IT FEEL
PLEASANT OUTDOORS.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AREA WIDE. LATE TONIGHT
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAR SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY
FURTHER EAST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
INCREASE TO MENTION SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 12Z/7 AM
TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY MORE HEAVY RAIN. A STRONG 100 KNOT RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND ALMOST HINTS AT A BIT OF COUPLING WITH AN INCOMING
80 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET INTO NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN BOTTLED UP JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...ESPECIALLY THE TORNADO THREAT...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL SEE A THREAT OF POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND MAYBE A LITTLE WIND AND IF THE MODELS ARE TOO
FAR SOUTH BY 50 MILES OR SO WITH THE BOUNDARY THAT WOULD PLACE THE
AREA IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT...SO DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THIS. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWAT
VALUES LIKELY 1.50 INCHES OR MORE. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH POPS AND
INCREASE THEM A BIT FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS IT SEEMS LIKE IT SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO MISS OUT ON THE RAINFALL.
ON TUESDAY MORNING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND
MAX MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WESTERN CWA. THIS COULD ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND BRING A
SMALL DECREASE IN HEATING WHICH WOULD AFFECT LOW LEVEL WARMING AND
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FORCING MAY BE SO STRONG AND SO
WELL IN LINE WITH THE INCOMING STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT THE
800MB TO 700MB LAYER COULD BE VERY ACTIVE WITHOUT MUCH OF A THREAT
OF THE SURFACE TO 925MB POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH
DIVERTING FLOW AND ROBBING US OF GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING. THE NAM ELEVATED RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING LOOK TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AS WELL SO IF
SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE 925MB TO 850MB LAYER CAN DEVELOP IT MAY END
UP TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
BY WEDNESDAY EVEN IN A WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS POTENT...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
REAL HIGH ON THIS RIGHT NOW. A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE BOTH DAYS
WITH MAINLY 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME 80S
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAYBE SLOWING DOWN A BIT TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST THE LATTER PART. WITH FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE VERY HARD TO COME BY. SO WILL MAINTAIN
A LOT OF MID LEVEL POPS THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH POPS DECREASING
SOME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CURRENTLY SEEING SOME MVFR TO IFR STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG FORM
TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE DRY AIR
ADVECTING IN WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW...AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS OR FOG...SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON MENTIONING IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TOMORROW OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST...GUSTING
20 TO 30 KTS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1120 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FFG NUMBERS FOR CALUMET FOR 3 HOURS ABOUT 1.65 INCHES OF RAIN.
WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY...MAY INSTEAD NEED TO GO
WITH AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING OR POSSIBLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN
THE NEXT FEW MINUTES. WATCHING THE RAINFALL RATES NEXT SCAN OR
TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREAS AND ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ML CAPES
OVER 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER CELLULAR
IN NATURE BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SLOW CONGEALING TREND FROM
NORTHERN IOWA TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN POSSIBLY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THOUGH HAVE A HAD A FEW WIND REPORTS TO 45 MPH...THE
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE FLASH FLOODING IN THE CENTRAL TO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN CORRIDOR. THE DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS IS
NOT QUITE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW...SO CONCERNS THAT THE OUTFLOW
WILL CAUSE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME. WILL PASS
ALONG THE CONCERNS TO THE EVENING SHIFT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TONIGHT...RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE FEATURES TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TRAILING
END OF ONE VORT MAX WILL BE DEPARTING FAR NE WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING WHILE ANOTHER TAIL OF A VORT WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ROBBING THE MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD...AND
FOCUSING THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS HERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BUT ONCE
THESE FEATURES EXIT...THINK WILL SEE A GENERAL DIMINISHING PRECIP
TREND AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT IS LOST. AFTER
PLENTY OF RAINFALL IN SPOTS TODAY AND A HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE...SUPPORT IS THERE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG LATER TONIGHT. WILL FOCUS THE STRONGER FOG WORDING OVER CENTRAL
AND N-C WISCONSIN WHERE MOS GUIDANCE HITS THE LOWER VSBYS HARDER.
THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
OCCURS...FORCING ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELEVATED CAPES REACHING 600 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS AROUND
20 KTS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LLJ LATE TONIGHT AND A SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE HIGHER IF THIS DEVELOPS. BUT CURRENTLY THINKING FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN THAN A SEVERE THREAT. MUGGY NIGHT
TIME LOWS IN THE 60S.
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NE TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS IT DRAGS A COOL FRONT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
SINCE WINDS ARE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. FORCING ALOFT IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION LOOKS MORE ROBUST AND THINK WILL DRIVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH FORCING ALOFT INCREASING DURING THE
MORNING...THINK WILL SEE AN AREA OF STORMS MOVE FROM SW TO NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ML
CAPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 700-1000 J/KG RANGE WHILE
BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS OVER NE WISCONSIN. IF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP DO NOT HOLD TEMPS BACK...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER NE WISCONSIN. RATHER SKINNY CAPE
SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND TO GO ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WILL BE BRIEF...AS NEAR-SEVERE TSTMS HAVE KEPT US BUSY THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL STILL HAVE LINGERING
POPS MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ON TUESDAY FOR SOME LIGHT WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO
MAINTAINED SOME SMALL POPS OVER C/EC WI ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HUDSON BAY
IS EXPECTED SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY
STORMS. VFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
THEN TO IFR CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT TO MONDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1108 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD
ADVANCING COLD POOL FROM STORMS THAT FIRED EARLIER OVER NATRONA
AND CONVERSE COUNTIES ARE RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MORRILL
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS (JUST NORTH OF
ALLIANCE) AND WINDS TO NEAR 75 MPH...ALTHOUGH THEY APPEAR A BIT
WEAKER AT THIS TIME ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OVER MORRILL AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES. AIRMASS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THESE STORMS
IS FAIRLY WORKED OVER NOW AND STABILIZED AS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONGEST STORMS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY STILL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS THEY APPROACH
THE CITY OF SIDNEY. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY 8 PM
WITH A FEW WEAKER ISOLATED CELLS POSSIBLE OUT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MID EVENING WHERE WE STILL HAVE A FEW
CONVECTIVE TOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH ITS
AXIS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH WINDS GOING NORTH TO NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS MOVING OVER MUCH OF CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WEAK INSTABILITY IS SHOWN UP IN THIS REGION...LARGELY
CAUSED BY COOL MIDLVL TEMPS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE
SVR STORMS THROUGH THE AFTN OVER THE CWA...HOWEVER THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS
IS WHERE THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
CO-LOCATED WITH 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION AND
DECREASING INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTN ARE NEGATIVES FOR STRONGER
STORMS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
STORMS DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS WILL
WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING...NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT
WHERE STORMS LINGERED LATE INTO THE NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MIDLVL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH SFC WINDS TURNING TO THE SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF AT ALL...WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH
THE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS COME UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY
TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTN. THE TIMING
OF THE WAVE IS SUCH THAT THE DRYLINE IS LOCATED OVER THE PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND DEWPOINTS
ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE VERY HIGH (60-65F) TO THE EAST.
INSTABILITY IS EXCELLENT (LI VALUES OF -9C) AS IS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SVR STORMS OVER OUR
EASTERN ZONES. OF COURSE IF THE WAVE IS SLOWER AND THE SFC TROUGH
IS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BACK UP ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE THEN THE SVR THREAT WOULD EXTEND TO ALMOST THE ENTIRE
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
GFS SHOWS MAIN SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE
TUESDAY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
MID/UPPER DRYSLOT WORKING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THIS
FAR NORTH WITH THE UPPER DRYSLOT AND HENCE WOULD SUGGEST SOMEWHAT
GREATER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA
AND OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT OVERALL MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND FAIRLY ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SEMI-
ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES
WHEN EACH PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE OUR AREA...SO WE
KEPT AT LEAST SOME POPS GOING MOST AREAS WITH CHANCE POPS
CONCENTRATED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY AS GFS (AND TO SOME DEGREE
THE ECMWF) DEPICTS A LARGESCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING TO OUR EAST WITH
RIDGING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH ON
AMPLIFYING THE EASTERN TROUGH...SO WE MAY END UP RAISING POPS FOR
SUNDAY ON SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SATELLITE PICS TONIGHT SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE WITH A HINT OF FOG/STRATUS NEAR KBFF AND KAIA AS
WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...SO COULD SEE
SOME LOW VSBYS/CIGS CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
KLAR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POTENTIALLY SPILLING DOWN INTO THE
LARAMIE VALLEY. SFC WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AND COULD BRING MVFR CIGS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
INTO KCYS AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS WYOMING AFTER 17Z. SFC
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW T-STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THIS UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 15 PERCENT BY
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT FORECASTED
SINCE FUELS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE GROWTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH
PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED AND STAGES SHOULD BEGIN TO RECEDE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOWMELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GARMON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR COOLING TODAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO DRIZZLE
AT THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FROM MID WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...TRUE TO ITS NAME JUNE
GLOOM APPEARS TO BE TAKING OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS, FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED SO FAR. SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOWS THAT IT IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS AND
LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS WITH A COVERAGE PATTERN CLOSE TO OUR
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF THE
NORTHERLY GRADIENTS GREATLY EXCEEDING THE WESTERLY PIECE, THE
ROLES HAVE REVERSED ALLOWING FOR THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE DIRECT
FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS, COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
APPROACHING OUR AREA, WILL LEAD TO HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AT MANY INLAND SPOTS. LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS.
SIMILAR THE EARLY THIS MORNING, FOR TONIGHT GOING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE. IN FACT, LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF THE DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE WIDESPREAD
NATURE OF IT IN THE FORECAST GOING AROUND THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS END UP GETTING AROUND 0.05" OUT OF IT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS BOTH INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PROGRESSES OFF TO THE EAST. WORTH NOTING THAT EARLY RUNS OF THE
MODELS HAD BEEN DISAGREEING WITH THE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW (GFS
RIDGE, WHILE ECMWF WAS FAVORING MORE ZONAL FLOW). GFS HAS TRENDED
MORE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT WE ARE LESS LIKELY TO
SEE HOT WEATHER THIS WEEK.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK KEEPS US DRY (OUTSIDE OF DRIZZLE). ECMWF SLIDES
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BY NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE AT THE COAST WITH
TEMPS COOLING BACK CLOSER TO WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT MONDAY...ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE BAY AREA. N-S GRADIENT IS WEAKER AND THE ONSHORE
GRADIENT IS STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED
CLOSE TO 2K FEET PER FT ORD PROFILER. THEREFORE...THE STRATUS IS
FILLING IN A LITTLE MORE THAN YESTERDAY. ONE SIMILARITY TO
YESTERDAY MORNING IS THE HOLE OVER KSFO AGAIN. THAT BEING
SAID...THE HOLE APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING AS STRATUS CREEPS IN FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY CIGS THIS
MORNING. CLEARING OF STRATUS COULD BE LATER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN
THE CURRENT GRADIENT SET UP. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...DECIDED TO ADD A TEMPO FOR KSFO AS CIGS SLOWLY
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE AND 1KM WRF SUGGEST SOME
PATCHY CIGS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING OF ANY CLOUDS AROUND 17-18Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CIGS AT 1K FEET WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH POSSIBLE CLEARING 17-18Z.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS 500-700FT THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING CLOSE TO 18-19Z. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP CIGS IN
AT KMRY ALL DAY...BUT THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES THROUGH MIDWEEK. NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD LATE
THIS WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
334 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WHILE THE COAST
WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN TWO LOWS. ONE JUST OFF THE
COAST WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING FROM THE NORTH AND A SECOND LOW
OFF THE SRN CA COAST WHICH WILL MOVE INLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEING PULLED BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND THE LOWS. TIMING OF LOWS TO MOVE INLAND IS
IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING, GFS SHOWING MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE 500-1800J/KG RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
ALONG THE RIDGE LINE BETWEEN TRINITY AND SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
FURTHER NORTH. LAST PERIOD OF 06Z RUN OF HRRR VALID AT 21Z(2 PM)
SHOWING ISOLATED CELLS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
ONLY CONCERN IS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A MORE STABLE LAYER ABOUT
600 MB WHICH MAY CAP SOME OF THE VERTICAL MOTION BUT LEFT SCATTERED
TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. VERY LITTLE SHEAR SO EXPECT MORE PULSE TYPE
TSTMS. AIRMASS STARTING OUT DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT WITH VERY
SLOW CELL MOVEMENT EXPECT AIRMASS TO QUICKLY MOISTEN UP WITH WET
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TSTMS WILL END AFTER SUNSET AS TROUGH
MOVES INLAND AND LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. YET ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY BUT AIRMASS IS
NOT AS UNSTABLE AND LEFT SLIGHT CHC TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. BY
WED, RIDGE TRYING TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER BAY AREA BUT THIS LOOKS TOO WEAK AND TOO FAR SOUTH AND WILL
JUST PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MAINLY MENDO
COUNTY. FOR LATER INTO THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, A DRIER NW FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED INLAND.
AT THE COAST, UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE
MUCH CHANGE ON THE STRATUS FIELD WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WITH
SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM INLAND STARTING
WED AS RIDGE BUILDS WITH HIGHS JUMPING INTO THE MID 90S. AT THE
COAST, NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED. DEAN
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AND
INLAND UP THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. THIS CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN SPREAD N
ACROSS KCEC ON S FLOW. THE S FLOW HAS SINCE DROPPED BACK OFF...BUT
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD ON UNTIL BREAKING UP LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG BY SUNRISE AT
KCEC AND KACV...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY DROPPING BELOW 3SM. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AS THERMAL TROF AXIS HAS
SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND RELAXED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
HOWEVER...GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KCEC DURING THE
AFTERNOON. /SEC
&&
.MARINE...AS MENTIONED...THE THERMAL TROF AXIS HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO
THE COAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE S PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE LEFT THE GALE WARNING IN PLACE FOR
THE N OUTER WATERS DUE TO GUSTS. HAVE SCALED BACK TO A HAZARDOUS
SEAS WARNING FOR THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE
AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME...HAVE SHIFTED TO A GALE WATCH. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED BY THE DAY SHIFT AS MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED A MARKED UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS BY THAT TIME AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. STRONG NORTHERLIES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL
AS DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDO AND PT ST GEORGE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE 16 TO 18 FT RANGE IN THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH PERIODS RANGING FROM 9 TO 11 SECONDS. /SEC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ450-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ470.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
PZZ475.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1035 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TAKES ON A
ZONAL CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH A
DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. FINALLY...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE FLOW TURNS NORTH INTO
LONGWAVE RIDING IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN IN THIS
VICINITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE ONLY INFLUENCE THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE TO OUR LOCAL WEATHER IS THE ARRIVAL OF WAVES OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERHEAD THAT ARE WRAPPING AROUND ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THROUGH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AND
THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP OVERALL DIURNAL INSTABILITY DOWN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A CONTINUED MOIST PROFILE WITH A PW
VALUE OF AROUND 1.85". THE MID-LEVELS HAVE CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS (A TREND THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY)...AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
NOW UP TO AROUND -7C. THESE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY HOLD BACK UPDRAFT STRENGTH ALOFT. IN FACT THE LAPSE
RATE THROUGH PARTS OF THE CONVECTION COLUMN ARE MOIST ADIABATIC OR
LESS. THESE WOULD BE CONSIDERED POOR LAPSE RATES TO EXPECT ANY
VIGOROUS CONVECTION...AND SIGNIFICANT CHARGE SEPARATION FOR FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. WILL NEED TO GET DECENT CONVECTIVE CORES UP OVER 20KFT
BEFORE WE ENCOUNTER ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE IN THE CLOUD LAYER...AND NOT
SURE WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFTS ABOVE THIS LAYER. NOW ALL
THIS LEANS AGAINST MUCH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...BUT NOT
AGAINST RAIN ITSELF. THE COLUMN IS VERY MOIST...AND EVEN A FEW SUNNY
BREAKS FOR THINNER CIRRUS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO BUBBLE
UP.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST. THE GRADIENT IS RATHER TIGHT ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SW
GULF. THE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE EAST TO ONCE AGAIN PREVENT
THE DEVELOPMENT OR INLAND PENETRATION OF A SEA-BREEZE. ILL-DEFINED
SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY IS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS CHANGE IS REALLY ONLY DENOTED BY
A SMALL DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
(GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-4) WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES...A
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS IS SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. IT WILL BE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AT THE PASSING SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER OVER THE NATURE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST AND SOUTH WITH TIME
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL PUSH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONTINUED CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN
GULF. EXPECT LAND BASED SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF SUNSET...BUT FOR THOSE PLANNING AN OFFSHORE BOATING EXCURSION OFF
THE SUNCOAST...THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GO ALL NIGHT...AIDED BY
BROAD SYNOPTIC DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS BY DAWN...AND LOWER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FOR TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHOVED SOUTH AND
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY
DAY. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS NORTH AND
CENTRAL ZONES...AND 30 PERCENT DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS. EVEN THIS
POPS THIS MAY BE AGGRESSIVE. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE
SUITE AND SEE IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES ALL
TOGETHER FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. IF SHOWERS ARE GOING TO
OCCUR...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE
COUNTY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...EVEN FOR THESE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...DO NOT
EXPECT A WET DAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN...DOES LOOK LIKE A LOT OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THIS WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S...AS OPPOSED TO LOWER
90S. HAVE A GREAT MONDAY...AND ENJOY THE DRIER WEATHER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS!
&&
.MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST 00Z CYCLE. GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT THE DEEPEST COLUMN
MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE
IN MOST LOCALES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE ALONG WITH
CONVERGENCE FROM THE GULF COAST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MERGER MAY
RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN TOWARD
KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS DOES SHOW A MORE
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AND GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEPING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA...PREFERRED TO LEAN THE FORECAST
HEAVILY IN THIS DIRECTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POPS SOLIDLY IN THE
CHANCE RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THIS MID MORNING FROM KSRQ SOUTHWARD.
THE CIG HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING AND EXPECT GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF STORMS
LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END
LATER THIS EVENING. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGES SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A SURGE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERLY SURGES...YOU CAN EXPECT MODERATE
SEAS IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET AND 1 TO 2 FEET
ALONG THE COASTLINE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THESE EASTERLY SURGES...SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS CAUSING GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...HIGH SEAS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
BELOW CAUTIONARY OR HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 71 86 71 / 40 20 20 10
FMY 87 71 88 70 / 60 30 30 10
GIF 86 69 86 69 / 30 10 20 10
SRQ 88 71 87 70 / 60 20 20 10
BKV 87 68 87 66 / 30 10 20 10
SPG 85 74 86 74 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA
MARINE...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
901 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE AXIS ALONG WASHINGTON
OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF FCST
AREA SO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED TO AFTERNOON BUILD
UPS OVER HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED TODAY. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE ISLAND PARK AREA THIS
MORNING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A PRETTY NICE MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY LATE MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE
LOOKING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM AND WRF ARE
OVERDOING THINGS...WHILE THE GFS AND HRRR ARE UNDERDOING. THAT IS
WHY WE WENT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE AND
ISOLATED STORMS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A STRAY STORM IN THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR OAKLEY AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY MOVING CLOSER TO THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE STILL FOR
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OVERALL TOMORROW WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
HAILEY TO MONTPELIER LINE. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT NON-
SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME
GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SPEED
OF TOMORROW`S SYSTEM AND ITS EXIT FROM OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM PUSHES WELL EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS IT ONLY
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. THIS GREATLY AFFECTS THE AMOUNT OF
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH A SLOWER
PATTERN AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GOING BACK TO TOMORROW`S WEATHER...WE ARE
LOOKING AT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SNAKE PLAIN. WE MAY APPROACH THE LOW END THRESHOLD FOR A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT WE ARE STICKING WITH WINDS A BIT BELOW THAT WHICH
DOES MEAN THAT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THOUGH FOR
AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY TODAY
WITH SEVERAL PLACES HITTING THE LOW/MID 80S. IT WILL COOL DOWN
THOUGH TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THAT BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. KEYES
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING STILL WITH HOW FAR SOUTH A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE MAY SEE ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO.
IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES FARTHER SOUTH...WE COULD SEE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE KEEP ANY
REAL THREAT IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS. BEYOND THAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FARTHER
APART. THE ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH A SLOWER MOVING LOW ACROSS OUR AREA
AND A DECENT SHOT AT RAIN BY MONDAY. THE GFS IS A LOT QUICKER AND
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WE DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE GOING FORECAST OF ANY DEVELOPMENT
CONFINED TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RUNNING AT
OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW
80S RETURN FROM TIME TO TIME BUT 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MOST
VALLEYS WILL BE COMMON...AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES
AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND KSUN 21Z-03Z TODAY. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AT BOTH KSUN
AND KIDA. FOR KBYI AND KPIH...WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RS
FIRE WEATHER...WE BEGIN THE DAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVANCING
INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING
CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO THE SOUTHERLY
INFLUENCE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL BOOST
THE HAINES INDEX TO 6 FOR AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF BIG SOUTHERN BUTTE.
THIS WILL LAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE APPROACHING
TROUGH HAS TIME TO COOL THE AIR DOWN AND INCREASE THE HUMIDITY. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
SAWTOOTH AND SALMON-CHALLIS FOREST AREA. MOISTURE DEEPENS AND THE CHANCE
OF WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES OVER NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY MOST SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF A PICABO TO GRAYS
LAKE LINE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE ARCO DESERT AND LOWER
SNAKE PLAIN. RS
HYDROLOGY...RIVER MODELS AGAIN KEEPING ALL GAUGES BELOW BANKFULL
FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENCY IMAGERY
COMBINED WITH SNOTEL DATA INDICATES THE TETONS ARE THE LAST HOLD
OUT FOR SNOW DEPTH AND MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. SWIFT FLOWS AND
HIGH WATER ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR TRIBUTARIES AND CREEKS LEADING
TO THE MAIN RIVERS PARTICULARLY THROUGH TETON BASIN. FLOODING NOT A
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. DMH/KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1053 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE
SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE
REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH
IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST
12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND
ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE
AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME
CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN
WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A
MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS
SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING
EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE
DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S
NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK
DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN.
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD
ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT
AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL
SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
STORMS.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND
RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN
HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.
ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP
MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE
MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF
A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL.
* LINE OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS
SHORTLY...WITH A POSSIBLE TEMPO SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT FOR A SHORT PERIOD.
KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
FOR THE TAF UPDATE I HAVE TRIED TO CONVEY A BETTER TIMING ON THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD APPROACH
NORTHEASTERLY ILLINOIS AROUND MIDDAY. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE TERMINALS DURING THIS PERIOD...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE
THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...IT APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE
IN ITS WAKE WILL HELP LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE.
KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER MINNESOTA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
ALL DAY WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SO FAR ONLY SCT OR FEW DECKS AT
THE TERMINALS. WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING AND SOUPY AIR...STILL HAVE
SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS AND COULD SEE OCNL BKN MVFR CIGS.
EXPECTING ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR RFD AND
THEN THIS AFTN AND PERHAPS INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR CONVECTION. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO HINT
AT LIMITED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE VCTS IN FOR LATE THIS AFTN. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT WILL REDUCE
VSBY AND MAY HAVE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
GUSTS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SW WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AT 10-15
KT. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST TO ARND 20 KT
BY MID MORNING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH WITH LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
* LOW WITH ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
904 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE
SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE
REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH
IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST
12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND
ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE
AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME
CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN
WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A
MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS
SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING
EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE
DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S
NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK
DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN.
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD
ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT
AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL
SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
STORMS.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND
RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN
HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.
ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP
MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE
MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF
A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* GUSTY S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL.
* LINE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY.
* MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE STORMS.
JEE/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
FOR THE TAF UPDATE I HAVE TRIED TO CONVEY A BETTER TIMING ON THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD APPROACH
NORTHEASTERLY ILLINOIS AROUND MIDDAY. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE TERMINALS DURING THIS PERIOD...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE
THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...IT APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE
IN ITS WAKE WILL HELP LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE.
KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER MINNESOTA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
ALL DAY WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SO FAR ONLY SCT OR FEW DECKS AT
THE TERMINALS. WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING AND SOUPY AIR...STILL HAVE
SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS AND COULD SEE OCNL BKN MVFR CIGS.
EXPECTING ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR RFD AND
THEN THIS AFTN AND PERHAPS INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR CONVECTION. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO HINT
AT LIMITED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE VCTS IN FOR LATE THIS AFTN. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT WILL REDUCE
VSBY AND MAY HAVE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
GUSTS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SW WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AT 10-15
KT. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST TO ARND 20 KT
BY MID MORNING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY.
* LOW WITH ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
655 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE
SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE
REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH
IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST
12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND
ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE
AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME
CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN
WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A
MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS
SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING
EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE
DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S
NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK
DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN.
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD
ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT
AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL
SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
STORMS.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND
RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN
HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.
ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP
MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE
MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF
A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* GUSTY S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT PSBL
THIS AFTN.
* ISOL TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTN.
* MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL WITH THE STORMS.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER MINNESOTA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
ALL DAY WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SO FAR ONLY SCT OR FEW DECKS AT
THE TERMINALS. WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING AND SOUPY AIR...STILL HAVE
SCT MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS AND COULD SEE OCNL BKN MVFR CIGS.
EXPECTING ISOL TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR RFD AND
THEN THIS AFTN AND PERHAPS INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR CONVECTION. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO HINT
AT LIMITED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE VCTS IN FOR LATE THIS AFTN. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT WILL REDUCE
VSBY AND MAY HAVE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
GUSTS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SW WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AT 10-15
KT. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST TO ARND 20 KT
BY MID MORNING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. MAY SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1142 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS MORNING AS SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS
AND SOLID TEMPERATURE ADVECTION HAVE WARMED READINGS TO AROUND 80.
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH LI/S AROUND -4C. WIND FIELDS ARE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE WITH THE 850MB LLJ PROGD TO BE IN THE 30-40
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL JET IS ON THE ORDER OF 45
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 30-40 KNOTS AT 21Z. A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO PLOW EAST AS WELL MARCHING ACROSS
WISCONSIN TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN AT 15Z.
SO...THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST THE
SCATTERED CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. GIVEN A UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE
EXPECTING STRONG WINDS TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. OF EQUAL CONCERN
THOUGH WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS AS PWAT VALUES ARE UP
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS WILL HAVE THE THREAT FOR
MARGINAL HAIL AS WELL.
IN TERMS OF MORPHOLOGY THERE WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL LAKE
SHADOW IN THE DIVERGENT WINDS OFF THE LAKE AT LEAST INITIALLY. LIFT
VIA THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH A DECENT SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE
WEATHER THOUGH WILL BE INLAND FROM NEAR HIGHWAY 131 AND POINTS
EAST. HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD
DISCRETE CELLS FIRING INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A LINE OF
STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD BE
SWEEPING EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 7-9PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST INTO OUR REGION AND STRONG SSW WINDS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT A WARM A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO LOWER MI.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING/MAX
INSTABILITY WHEN SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ML CAPE VALUES WILL REACH
500-1000 J/KG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION WOULD BE
NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131 AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE LATEST
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND FORCING WILL
COME FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WX THREAT IS MITIGATED BY
SEVERAL FACTORS THOUGH INCLUDING RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY/FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TODAY AND WEAK BULK SHEAR
AROUND 20 KTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS
TO IMPACT OUR FCST AREA WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SPREAD IS STILL NOTED
AMONG THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE WITH 00Z NAM SHOWING AN MCS
COULD AFFECT OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH IT/S FURTHER NORTH
SOLUTION.
HOWEVER MOST SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL
EITHER CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA SOUTH OF I-96 OR MISS OUR
AREA ALTOGETHER AND AFFECT IN/OH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THIS POTENTIAL FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
ANOTHER STRETCH OF PLEASANT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES SINKING
FARTHER SOUTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S AND CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN MODERATE TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE WARM
AIR TRIES TO RETURN NORTH AHEAD OF A WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE/AMPLIFIED THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AT 12Z WILL BE REPLACED BY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME PREDOMINATELY MVFR AS THIS OCCURS... ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY
20Z AND 23Z... WITH VFR FOLLOWING BEHIND THE RAIN. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AFTER DARK...
PARTICULARLY EAST OF GRR/AZO... BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME.
SOUTH SFC WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OPTED TO EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL ZONES GIVEN THE
WINDS IN PLACE AT THE PRESENT TIME. WAVES HAVE BUILT TO AROUND 5
FEET AT THE LUDINGTON BUOY IN THE LONGEST FETCH IN OUR MARINE
ZONES. WAVES ARE MORE IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE FROM GRAND HAVEN TO
THE SOUTH. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH DEW POINT
AIR IS BEING ADVECTED OUT OF THE WATERS OF THE BIG LAKE. BEACH
HAZARDS ARE NOT A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN GIVEN HOW COLD THE WATER IS
STILL. HIGHEST WAVES ARE UP NORTH AND THE WATER TEMP AT LUDINGTON
STATE PARK THIS MORNING WAS 52 DEGREES. SO...NOT EXPECTING A HIGH
POPULATION OF FOLKS VENTURING INTO THE WATER JUST YET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
RIVER LEVELS ARE DECREASING SLOWLY BUT MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS... RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL PROBABLY RISE A BIT. QPF
FROM A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
750 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
CONCERNS FOCUS ON AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE WRN CWA JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS GENERALLY RESULTED
IN LITTLE TO NO PCPN OVER UPPER MI FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS. YESTERDAYS RAIN SHOWERS AND THE CONTINUED MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS HOWEVER RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS
FOG/STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INLAND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SE PORTION OF UPPER MI ALONG LAKE MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.
EXPECT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL
DIURNAL MIXING HELPS SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVELS BY LATE MORNING. WITH
SPOTTER REPORTS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE KEWEENAW HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 11 AM.
THE LATEST HRRR RUN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF
SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER WI. ONE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SCNTRL
WI INTO NE WI LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ALONG THETA-E RDG AXIS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WHILE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WRN WI IS TIED TO MID-LVL
Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH MN AND NE IA AND
LIFT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BAND OVER SCNTRL ERN WI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALLY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SE UPPER
MI. MEANWHILE...THE RAIN BAND OVER WRN AND NCNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SUPPORTING IT ROTATES
NE FROM MN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF
APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG AND PWATS TO NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
35-40 KT MAY ALLOW SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT MAIN THREATS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO ERN COUNTIES MAINLY
AFT 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TIED WITH THE
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOC SECONDARY COLD FRONT ROTATES THROUGH
THE AREA. LINGERING INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND NEG
SHOWALTER INDICES COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TSRA INTO AT LEAST
THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN A
TRANSITION TO ANOTHER PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS THIS LOWS CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...A LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OR WESTERN U.P. EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE FEATURES SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE EXPECTED LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY VALUES IN THE
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO SHIFT EAST BUT WILL ALSO BE
PULLED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WILL ATTEMPT TO
SHIFT THE POPS (CHANCES) EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHILE ALSO
DIMINISHING THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE DEEP MOISTURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST...SO WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO A WEST TO
EAST DIMINISHING TREND TO THE FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TREND
SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20KTS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS (25
KTS) OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE DIFFICULT ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM START TO THE
DAY...THEN COOLING WITH THE MORNING RAIN SHOWERS...BEFORE WARMING
AGAIN WITH SOME SUN IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH THE
KEWEENAW MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S WITH THE STRONG WINDS
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT FROM A PARENT HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK SHIFT EAST. IT WAS HINTED AT YESTERDAY AND CONTINUED WITH
TODAYS 00Z RUNS THAT A FINAL SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...SO WILL JUST
MENTION A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME OVER THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...MAY SEEM SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP
MOVES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
KEEP THINGS COOL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR (TEMPS IN THE 50S)...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST WHERE THE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS AND A LITTLE STRONGER
WINDS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOWER
70S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER.
BEHIND THIS LAST WAVE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER FOR THE U.P. THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND
GENERALLY NORMAL TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S (SOME UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY NIGHT) FOR
LOWS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND LEAD TO THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS WAVE COULD LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS NEARING WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL JUST SHOW SOME INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL VARY ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA SHOWN BY THEM AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT KCMX AND KSAW WILL
IMPROVE TO IFR OR MVFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED
MIXING AND THE ONSET OF STEADIER SHRA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING IN FM MN. CONDITIONS AT KIWD WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR THIS MORNING UNDER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR OR VFR BEHIND THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING
MOISTURE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR
OR LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 30KTS THROUGH THE FCST
PD. LIGHTER WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT AREAS
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE SO HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN ZONE OF LAKE. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR LSZ162-
240>250-263>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
932 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO
SKY COVER THIS MORNING GIVEN A STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IT BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO PUSHED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION A BIT
FURTHER EAST INTO PHILLIPS AND GARFIELD COUNTIES BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE DAY BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS MONTANA...FINALLY CHASING THE WEEKEND TROUGH OUT OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY.
BUT TODAY WILL SEE MILD CONDITIONS DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS IN EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL MOVE ON BY AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INSURE WIND GENERALLY REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. WIND IN THE EAST WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY
THE DEPARTING LOW...BEGINNING WITH NORTHWEST WIND OF AROUND
10-15KT THAT DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST
PART...CONVECTION PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN WEAK. SO CUT POPS BACK TO
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
MONDAY NIGHT THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BACK UPPER FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO INTRODUCE MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDER. ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES VEER WITH HEIGHT. MODERATE BULK
SHEAR AND CAPE COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND AND
HAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN STORM STRENGTH
HOWEVER WILL FOCUS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHERE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE DIVIDE AND OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WETTING RAIN. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALSO INCREASE WIND...FIRST FROM THE SOUTHEAST...THEN
THE NORTHWEST. SCT
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A SHALLOW UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
OVERALL PATTERN IS DRIER AND COOLER FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT
GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND MODEST CYCLONIC FLOW SOME MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR WITH FUEL LOADING TRANSITIONING TO VFR.
SYNOPSIS: NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST 1-3 KFT STRATUS DECK STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN DOWN TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK UP OVER THE NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS REVEALING VFR SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO FEW
CUMULUS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS... BECOMING EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNSET. GAH
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
948 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
RADAR LOOPS AND LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A PERSISTENT SHOWER
AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WITH H8
TEMPERATURE FIELD AS COOL AS IT IS...CURRENT THINKING IS THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER SO REMOVED THUNDER FOR
THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WENT A BIT COOLER SOUTH CENTRAL
TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
SHOWERS CONTINUE IN DEFORMATION ZONE FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND SLOWLY EXITING
LOW EXTENDS WEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA...SO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO START THE DAY. AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL EXTENDS SOUTH PAST GARRISON
WITH EVEN A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO BISMARCK.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR NOW EXTENDING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THINK THAT
BY THE TIME WE SEE A THREAT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE SHIFTED EVEN FARTHER EAST.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST REFLECTIVITY STILL SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EAST IN THE
DEVILS LAKE AREA AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG
THE SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SOME MODERATE SHOWERS IN
AND NORTH OF MINOT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SLOWLY
SLIDING THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY FALL OFF AFTER 18 UTC FROM WEST
TO EAST. CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS ALSO DIMINISHED TONIGHT AND DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF CHANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THUS HAVE KEPT THUNDER
CHANCES AT ISOLATED.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND MUCH
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN HAS MOST
LIKELY ALREADY FALLEN FROM THIS SYSTEM...NOT KNOWING THE FULL
EFFECTS OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND SMALL STREAMS IS STILL PRESENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE TUESDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
CLOSEST TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST SO WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE...AND
HOLDS OFF ON CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STRONGER BUT THE EARLIER WAVE WILL HELP CLEAR
OUT A LOT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS THE MOISTURE RECOVERY ON
THURSDAY LOOKS MEAGER IN THE WEST AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD.
WE REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH AND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OUR
SOUTH. COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT POSSIBLE
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS KEPT SOME SMALL
POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOW DEWPOINTS...THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
LOW STRATUS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS PROVIDING
MVFR OVER THE WEST AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CENTRAL THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS REMAIN NORTH AROUND KMOT AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT SITE KJMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE
LOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK APART FROM SOUTHWEST AT
KDIK AROUND 22 UTC MONDAY TO NORTHEAST FOR SITES KBIS AND
KISN...THEN KMOT AROUND 06 UTC TUESDAY. LOW CEILING CONDITIONS OF
LIFR TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND AT SITE KJMS THROUGH THE
12 UTC TAF CYCLE. TOMORROW NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG
FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND WILL USHER IN MUCH MORE
HUMID AIR. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO MID-WEEK...KEEPING IT UNSETTLED WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN BOUNDARY BETWEEN WARM AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SEASONABLE AIR WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS IN THE SW ARE RATHER INNOCUOUS AND SLATED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY THE RUC AND HRRRRRRR OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TEMPS. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE EAST AND WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
TEMPS AT OR BELOW 80F EVERYWHERE. M70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVS IN
THE NORTH MAY BE THE LOWEST OF HIGHS THIS AFTN.
830 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS MOVING INTO SWRN COS ARRIVING 1-2 HRS AHEAD OF SCHD. WILL
BUMP POPS UP THERE...AND CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER EVEN THOUGH
LATEST LTG TREND IS DOWNWARD. HEATING MAY ADD ENUF TO LLVL LAPSE
RATES.
PREV...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSING CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WITH DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE OH/PA BORDER ON FRESHENING
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AROUND SW TO NE ORIENTED MID ATLANTIC SFC
RIDGE. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS AND FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EAST OF OHIO
VALLEY 850 MB LLJ.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY AT LEAST WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER
80S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER AND DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES TO OVER
1.5" PW THIS EVENING...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD...BUT IT MAY STILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SPROUT ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
CAPPING WARM AIR ALOFT. CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS THE WEST
TO SUPPORT MID CHC POPS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO INCREASE POPS FARTHER EAST ON
TUESDAY...AS WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL PA AND
SHEARING UPPER TROF SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
IMPRESSIVE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +16C SHOULD SPELL OUT
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH...WITH NORTHERN AREAS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIDWEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH DEWPOINTS HIGH ENOUGH TO
MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FADE BACK
TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
NARROW RIDGE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL GIVE WAY TO
A LOW SLOWLY SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MIDWEEK
AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS IN FROM THE WEST. SCT ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND COLD
FRONT BECOMES ALIGNED MORE W-E AND STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
MASON/DIXON LINE. AS WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE W-E FLOW...RENMANTS
OF AN MCS OFF TO OUR WEST MAY PLAY A FACTOR IN FOCUSING TSTM
ACTIVITY ON WED - AND SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION CENTRAL PA IN THE
DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
FRONT LINGERS AROUND THE MASON/DIXON LINE THU INTO FRI /WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT POSITIONING/...KEEPING MENTION OF SCT TSTMS
GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH. THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER NORTHERN PA...TRACK OF CLOSED UPPER LOW UP THE ST
LAWRENCE SEAWAY WILL KEEP MENTION OF POSS INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHERWISE...BUT OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER TENN/OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO REORGANIZE AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND - AGAIN INCREASING
OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING A MORE HUMID SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. STABILITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTN AND ALLOW FOR SCT
CONVECTION/SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER IN THE N/W. MVFR CIGS IN THE
WEST MAY RISE A BIT THIS AFTN AS MIXING GETS DEEPER...BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO IT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. REDUCTIONS IN VIS FROM SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM KAOO AND KUNV WESTWARD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TOWARDS SUNSET...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIGS AND VSBYS
REDUCING TO MVFR OR LOWER AT BFD AFTER 06Z.
EXPECT REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
THU...SHRA/VSBY REDUCTIONS POSS SOUTHERN PA.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
844 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING AND LOWERED POPS AND TEMPS. A
LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS MOVING DOWN OUT OF ND THIS MORNING
AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP ANY
DAYTIME HEATING IN CHECK THIS MORNING. THEN WITH CAA THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST WILL JUST NOT BE ABLE
TO CATCH UP. SO DROPPED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S. PRECIP ON THE
OTHER HAND IS GETTING HUNG UP IN ND. THE HRRR DOES NOT HAVE ANY
PRECIP ENTERING THE NORTHEAST UNTIL AROUND 18Z SO ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS PASSED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA
THROUGH THE DAY AS AREA WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW. A FEW WIDELY
SCT THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
AS AREA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER THAN
RECENT DAYS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH ALREADY BEGINS
TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST CWA ON TUESDAY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW AND SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 12 AND ESPECIALLY GOOD SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212. ALTHOUGH
0-6KM SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE OVER SOUTHERN SD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...MLCAPE VALUES ARE VERY LOW WITH ALL THE INSTABILITY
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...CLOSER TO THE SFC WARM
FRONT. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SVR POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
BREAK IN THE ACTION MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BOUNDARY THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...KEEPING THE CWA IN A
PRIME AREA FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. CANNOT REALLY RULE OUT
ANY TIME PERIOD THAT WILL BE DRY...SO WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND POPS...WHICH KEEP SCHC/CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S THURSDAY GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL DROP MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN DOMINATING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID MORNING...THEN WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
920 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR COOLING TODAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO DRIZZLE
AT THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FROM MID WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 AM PDT MONDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
CENTER OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A MODEST MARINE LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH STRATUS WELL DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING THE STRATUS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO BURN-OFF ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN UNDER
CLOUD COVER ALL DAY LONG WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING INTO THE
LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S TO MID/UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS
REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
TYPICAL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE ARE EXPECTED. THE ONGOING FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...TRUE TO ITS NAME JUNE
GLOOM APPEARS TO BE TAKING OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS, FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED SO FAR. SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOWS THAT IT IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS AND
LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS WITH A COVERAGE PATTERN CLOSE TO OUR
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF THE
NORTHERLY GRADIENTS GREATLY EXCEEDING THE WESTERLY PIECE, THE
ROLES HAVE REVERSED ALLOWING FOR THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE DIRECT
FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS, COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
APPROACHING OUR AREA, WILL LEAD TO HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AT MANY INLAND SPOTS. LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS.
SIMILAR THE EARLY THIS MORNING, FOR TONIGHT GOING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE. IN FACT, LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF THE DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE WIDESPREAD
NATURE OF IT IN THE FORECAST GOING AROUND THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS END UP GETTING AROUND 0.05" OUT OF IT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS BOTH INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PROGRESSES OFF TO THE EAST. WORTH NOTING THAT EARLY RUNS OF THE
MODELS HAD BEEN DISAGREEING WITH THE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW (GFS
RIDGE, WHILE ECMWF WAS FAVORING MORE ZONAL FLOW). GFS HAS TRENDED
MORE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT WE ARE LESS LIKELY TO
SEE HOT WEATHER THIS WEEK.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK KEEPS US DRY (OUTSIDE OF DRIZZLE). ECMWF SLIDES
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BY NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE AT THE COAST WITH
TEMPS COOLING BACK CLOSER TO WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT MONDAY...ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE BAY AREA. N-S GRADIENT IS WEAKER AND THE ONSHORE
GRADIENT IS STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED
CLOSE TO 2K FEET PER FT ORD PROFILER. THEREFORE...THE STRATUS IS
FILLING IN A LITTLE MORE THAN YESTERDAY. ONE SIMILARITY TO
YESTERDAY MORNING IS THE HOLE OVER KSFO AGAIN. THAT BEING
SAID...THE HOLE APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING AS STRATUS CREEPS IN FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY CIGS THIS
MORNING. CLEARING OF STRATUS COULD BE LATER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN
THE CURRENT GRADIENT SET UP. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...DECIDED TO ADD A TEMPO FOR KSFO AS CIGS SLOWLY
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE AND 1KM WRF SUGGEST SOME
PATCHY CIGS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING OF ANY CLOUDS AROUND 17-18Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CIGS AT 1K FEET WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH POSSIBLE CLEARING 17-18Z.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS 500-700FT THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING CLOSE TO 18-19Z. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP CIGS IN
AT KMRY ALL DAY...BUT THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES THROUGH MIDWEEK. NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD LATE
THIS WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
150 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM (REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TAKES ON A
ZONAL CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH A
DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. FINALLY...FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE FLOW TURNS NORTH INTO
LONGWAVE RIDING IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN IN THIS
VICINITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE ONLY INFLUENCE THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE TO OUR LOCAL WEATHER IS THE ARRIVAL OF WAVES OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERHEAD THAT ARE WRAPPING AROUND ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THROUGH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AND
THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP OVERALL DIURNAL INSTABILITY DOWN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A CONTINUED MOIST PROFILE WITH A PW
VALUE OF AROUND 1.85". THE MID-LEVELS HAVE CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS (A TREND THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY)...AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
NOW UP TO AROUND -7C. THESE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY HOLD BACK UPDRAFT STRENGTH ALOFT. IN FACT THE LAPSE
RATE THROUGH PARTS OF THE CONVECTION COLUMN ARE MOIST ADIABATIC OR
LESS. THESE WOULD BE CONSIDERED POOR LAPSE RATES TO EXPECT ANY
VIGOROUS CONVECTION...AND SIGNIFICANT CHARGE SEPARATION FOR FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. WILL NEED TO GET DECENT CONVECTIVE CORES UP OVER 20KFT
BEFORE WE ENCOUNTER ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE IN THE CLOUD LAYER...AND NOT
SURE WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFTS ABOVE THIS LAYER THE REST
OF THE DAY. ALL THIS LEANS AGAINST MUCH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...BUT NOT AGAINST RAIN ITSELF. THE COLUMN IS VERY MOIST...AND
EVEN A FEW SUNNY BREAKS FOR THINNER CIRRUS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST. THE GRADIENT IS RATHER TIGHT ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SW
GULF. THE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE EAST TO ONCE AGAIN PREVENT
THE DEVELOPMENT OR INLAND PENETRATION OF A SEA-BREEZE. ILL-DEFINED
SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY IS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS CHANGE IS REALLY ONLY DENOTED
BY A SMALL DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
(GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-4) WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES...A
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY THE PAST FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND
CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. IT WILL BE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT THE PASSING SHOWERS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND THE NATURE COAST...BUT THE ACTIVITY FOR
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
NOT MUCH AS CHANGED IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY GOING FORWARD INTO
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO INDICATED THAT
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WEST AND SOUTH WITH TIME DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL PUSH THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF. EXPECT
LAND BASED SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNSET...BUT FOR THOSE PLANNING AN OFFSHORE BOATING EXCURSION OFF
THE SUNCOAST...THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GO ALL NIGHT...AIDED BY
BROAD SYNOPTIC DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS BY DAWN...AND LOWER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FOR TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHOVED SOUTH AND
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY
DAY. BASED ON THE LATEST NWP...HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE ALL RAIN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. IF SHOWERS ARE GOING TO
OCCUR...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE
COUNTY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...EVEN FOR THESE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...DO NOT
EXPECT A WET DAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN...DOES STILL LOOK LIKE A
LOT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA...AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...AS
OPPOSED TO LOWER 90S.
&&
.MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST 00Z CYCLE. GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT THE DEEPEST COLUMN
MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE
IN MOST LOCALES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE ALONG WITH
CONVERGENCE FROM THE GULF COAST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MERGER MAY
RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN TOWARD
KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS DOES SHOW A MORE
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AND GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEPING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA...PREFERRED TO LEAN THE FORECAST
HEAVILY IN THIS DIRECTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POPS SOLIDLY IN THE
CHANCE RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY TERMINALS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND THE KFMY/KRSW AREA WITH
DECREASING CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH ONE TRAVELS. PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FORECAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ONCE
THE SUN RISES TUESDAY MORNING...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGES SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A SURGE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERLY SURGES...YOU CAN EXPECT MODERATE
SEAS IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET AND 1 TO 2 FEET
ALONG THE COASTLINE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THESE EASTERLY SURGES...SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS CAUSING GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...HIGH SEAS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
BELOW CAUTIONARY OR HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS THIS WEEK. SHOWER COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO BE
MUCH LESS THAN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED LATELY. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 88 71 89 / 20 10 10 10
FMY 71 87 70 90 / 40 30 10 30
GIF 70 87 69 89 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 71 86 70 88 / 30 20 10 20
BKV 67 88 66 90 / 10 10 10 10
SPG 74 87 74 89 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA
MARINE...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
511 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
211 PM CDT
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTN THRU EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO REDEVELOP AFTER THE
MORNING LINE OF CONVECTION. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
DRY AIR IS QUICKLY RIDING ALONG THE HEELS OF THE MOIST AXIS THAT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...STRETCHING OVER NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN
MIDDAY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS QUICKLY ERODING INTO A CUMULUS
FIELD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...AND EXPECT THIS TO ARRIVE OVER
NORTHEAST IL EARLY THIS AFTN. SFC FLOW WILL THEN TURN
WESTERLY...DESPITE DEW POINTS LIKELY HOLDING UP IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BASED OFF OF GUIDANCE
SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER IT IS VERY THIN CAPE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
THAT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN/EVE...BUT WITH
THE LACK OF INHIBITION ANY ACTIVITY THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND LIKELY END ARND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER. THEN
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND PROVIDES SOME DRYING TONIGHT. DEW
POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT...HOLDING GENERALLY
IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SOME
WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG NORTHERN MISSOURI
STRETCHING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN IN UNTIL LATE TUE AFTN.
SKIES SHUD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. THE CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY TUE WILL
BE ON HOW WARM SFC TEMPS CAN BECOME...AS FAR NORTHERN IL MAY HOLD IN
THE UPR 70S AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA STILL TOUCH THE
LOW/MID 80S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTN TUE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RATHER CONSISTENT...AND HAS ONLY EXHIBITED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TIMING/PLACEMENT. MID-LVL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES THE
FOCAL POINT TUE NGT...AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE/EARLY WED. PWAT
VALUES AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE WILL PUSH TO ARND 1.75-2"...WITH THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEADILY LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
CWFA LATE TUE EVE. THIS WILL BRING DEW POINTS BACK TO THE LOW/MID
60S...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED BETWEEN 50-60KTS
OVER EASTERN NE/NORTHERN KS STRETCHING EAST THRU THE CWFA ARND 9Z
WED. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN MCS DEVELOP TUE
AFTN/EVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA...AND WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING
LINE. GIVEN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST EARLY WED
MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWFA...MAINTENANCE OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT. THEN IT DOES APPEAR THE CONVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE
ON A WIND THREAT AND LARGE HAIL.
THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR WED WILL BE AFTN CONVECTION...WHICH HINGES
ON HOW THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL CWFA EARLY WED AFTN...AS THE MID-LVL WAVE BEGINS TO NEAR
THE AREA. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE GOING FORECAST...WITH AFTN
SHRA/TSRA IN THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED IS RATHER
QUIET...WITH MINIMAL SIGNAL TOWARDS ANY SIZABLE WARM-UP OR COOL
PERIODS. HOWEVER THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE FEATURING A BROAD
ANTI-CYCLONIC SFC FEATURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STRETCHING NORTH TO
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP SFC WINDS NORTHEAST/EAST...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THUR/FRI OR GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH
60S ALONG THE IL LAKESHORE. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
WITH A SEMI-ZONAL LONGWAVE PATTERN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS SFC
FEATURE LINGERING BEYOND SAT IS LOW. ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO
HINT THAT A MID-LVL TROUGH MAY TRY TO DROP SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA
SAT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THEN
PIVOT THIS FEATURE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A VORT THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BY
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS TO RIDE ALONG THE VORT AXIS AND COULD BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SAT-EARLY MON. THEN THE
OTHER FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE THERMAL RIDGE
TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS COULD BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR A PERIOD OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET.
* STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE SOUTHWEST OF FEP TO CWI AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH SUNSET AS IT MOVES EAST POSSIBLY
IMPACTING RFD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH EARLY/MID
EVENING BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS SUNSET
APPROACHES WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING COMPLETELY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. CMS
PREVIOUS 18Z DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MAIN
TERMINALS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AND THUS WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST.
OVERALL...EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY...AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A BKN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 3000
FT AGL MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. SO CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* LOW FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IMPACTING ORD/MDW THROUGH SUNSET.
* HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
155 PM CDT
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5 INCHES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MOVED ACROSS THE
LAKE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING 30.0 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE LAKE. THE ONLY SYSTEM OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO IMPACT THE LAKE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN QUICKLY TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH
OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...UP
TO 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS OF THE
LAKE. WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND THERE COULD BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AS
WELL.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
343 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 342 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2014
Main concerns this forecast package will include pcpn chances
tonight, potential for large damaging wind storm late Tue night
through Wed morning, and then temps through the short term period.
Models look similar with the overall pattern but have begun to
differ on some of the sfc features and details, especially with
the Tue night through Wed time period...when the threat of severe
weather and heavy rainfall is present.
All models agree that a severe weather event is possible, but
differ on location and timing. Canadian is fastest, but agree with
GFS/ECMWF on location. NAM is furthest north and tracks the sfc
low across northern IL. The GFS is the slowest and furthest south
with the track of the low, but agrees with the ECMWF on the
location of the heaviest rainfall. GFS and Canadian also have the
most qpf, with is probably overdone. So, will be leaning away from
the furthest north NAM and try to take a blend of the other three.
Based on HPC qpf forecast and SPC Day 2 outlook, looks like a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF is the best way to go...so will follow
suit.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms will continue in the east and southeast
this evening, but once this goes by, dry conditions are expected
the remainder of the night and through tomorrow. All the models
develop pcpn to the west with some of them putting some of the
pcpn in west central IL. Looks like this develops on the tail end
of the front and convergence will be weak by then. So, looks like
something developing on the low level jet overnight; however this
is weak. Models do not carry this into the morning hours either.
Since most of the models, including some of the hires mesoscale
models do now have anything during this time period, will be
keeping it dry through the overnight hours. Conditions will
remained dry tomorrow as high press ridge moves over the area. At
the same time, the next system will be developing out west in
western NE/western KS. A warm front will extend east from this low
into northern MO and down into the southern half of IL. With
airmass very moist and unstable south of this front and a strong
low level jet overnight, strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop in parts of NE tomorrow night. Further
development will occur along the front in northern MO and parts of
southern IA. During the night hours, these storms are expected to
develop into a large complex of strong to severe storms...an MCS.
This complex is then expected to move east/southeast overnight
into western and northwestern IL. Initial convection will likely
be supercells with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes...but
out where the storms first develop. As the storms merge together,
the convection will likely become more linear in nature and could
become a bowecho or even a derecho. This should move across the
area during the very late hours of Tue night into the early
morning hours of Wed. As this complex of storms moves into the
cwa, damaging winds will become the primary severe weather threat.
Like SPC`s Day 2 outlook with a moderate risk out west and into
western IL. In addition to the severe threat, this complex of
storms will likely produce heavy rainfall across the area.
Rainfall amounts of over 2 inches will be possible tomorrow night
in western parts of central IL. As the system moves east-southeast
there should be some diminish on the strength of the system so
rainfall amounts will likely be lower in the east and southeast.
Pcpn will likely linger in the southeast Wed night, and with some
uncertainty on the whole evolution of the tail end of the system
back over our cwa, as the whole system moves east, will keep chc
pops over the rest of the area through Wed night. Then dry weather
is expected for Thursday as high press moves into the area for a
couple of days.
Temps will be warm one more day as the cwa will be in a warmer
sector again. Then once the MCS rolls through the area tomorrow
night, temps will cool for Wed and Thur.
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday
High press will dominate the area through Friday night, before the
next weather system moves into the area for Sat afternoon through
Sunday. Models differ on timing of the pcpn over the week, and the
location of the main sfc features, so an AllBlend forecast looks
reasonable for now. After the pcpn over the weekend, dry weather
is forecast again for Sun night and Monday. High temps through the
extended period will be in the 70s with lows in the upper 50s and
60s.
Auten
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2014
Weak cold front has pushed into west-central Illinois early this
afternoon, with scattered convection now beginning to develop
ahead of the boundary east of the I-55 corridor. All models have
a good handle on the current situation, with storms becoming more
numerous across east-central Illinois over the next couple of
hours. Based on latest radar trends and HRRR run, will only
mention thunder at KDEC and KCMI. Will carry VCTS at KDEC between
18 and 20z and tempo thunder at KCMI between 18 and 21z. After
that, the convection will push east of the TAF sites. Behind the
developing convection, skies have partially cleared at KPIA and
will gradually clear further east at the remaining sites later
this afternoon. Despite the NAM model trying to re-develop
widely scattered storms and lower clouds along the lingering
front later this evening, have decided to follow the drier model
guidance for tonight. Will therefore only carry scattered mid-clouds
through the night with light W/SW winds. Winds will become W/NW by
Tuesday morning under a mostly clear sky.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
154 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE
SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE
REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH
IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST
12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND
ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE
AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME
CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN
WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A
MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS
SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING
EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE
DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S
NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK
DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN.
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD
ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT
AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL
SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
STORMS.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND
RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN
HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.
ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP
MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE
MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF
A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* WINDS LIKELY REMAINING GUSTY UP AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FOLLOWING THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MAIN
TERMINALS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AND THUS WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST.
OVERALL...EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY...AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A BKN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 3000
FT AGL MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. SO CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* VERY LOW FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
OR NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
155 PM CDT
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5 INCHES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MOVED ACROSS THE
LAKE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING 30.0 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE LAKE. THE ONLY SYSTEM OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO IMPACT THE LAKE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN QUICKLY TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH
OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...UP
TO 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS OF THE
LAKE. WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND THERE COULD BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AS
WELL.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1226 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD AS WE TRANSITION FROM A SUMMER-TYPE
PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT 90 TO SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...TO A COOLER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE TRANSITION TIME WILL FEATURE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES...THE FIRST BEING TODAY AND THE
SECOND LIKELY MORE ROBUST ONE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THOSE ALONG WITH THEIR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WERE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THIS WILL STEER A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TODAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SO WE WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...SO HAVE TRIED TO KEY IN ON MID-LEVEL OR CONVECTIVE
REMNANT FEATURES WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. OVERALL THOUGH
IT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST
12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES OR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCVS ALONG WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAVE KEPT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
SUCH A MID-LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO IS LIKELY TO WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE LLJ AND
ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO VEER ACROSS THE
AREA...OVERALL DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
MARGINAL...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO...IN THE AREA OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WHILE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT...ENVISION THE SHOWER COVERAGE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
HEADS EAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM AND RAP MODELS BOTH INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV EMANATING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP RE-INVIGORATE SOME
CONVECTION...NAMELY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH MAY HELP SPARK SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN
WI OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SORT OF A
MESSY PATTERN...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING TOWARD MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE A WARM STARTING POINT BUT AMPLE MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN WILL STUNT A QUICK CLIMB. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON AFTERNOON CLOUDS IS QUITE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IF SUN PREVAILS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-16C AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS EVE TEMPS
SHOULD STAY QUITE MILD WITH THE COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY INCHING
EASTWARD. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WASH OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE
DEGREE OF COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...AND MIXING WOULD SUPPORT LOW 80S
NORTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S SOUTH. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN OFF THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK
DROP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN.
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF IT IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA /NEBRASKA AND IOWA/ DURING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT STOUT AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS A
TIGHTENING WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING INVOF IOWA/FAR NORTHERN MO GIVEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS/EC FOR THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS DURING A PERIOD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUT POTENTIALLY
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED. PARAMETERS THAT ALL LOOK GOOD
ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAPID AND PROGRESSIVE ASCENT
AND MASS EVACUATION UP TOP...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR COLD POOL
SUPPORT...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND REPLENISHING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS DO INDICATE A NEARLY DUE EAST MOTION...THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY SLOPE SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE SO SUCH AS THE GFS/EC SHOW. SO DO
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS THE NORTHERN CWA STILL WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
STORMS.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A PERIOD OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
MCS...AS WELL A GOOD BOUT OF RAINFALL WITH STRONG/DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS. HAVE COLLABORATED AND
RAISED QPF QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN
HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.
ANY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS/EC WOULD KEEP
MORE OF THE RE-DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HAVE LEANED IN THE
MIDDLE GROUND FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING NOT MUCH OF
A CLIMB WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES. LOOKS PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO CHICAGO. THERE IS POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE EPISODE WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED BUT AGAIN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DURING SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
PROVIDED POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* WINDS LIKELY REMAINING GUSTY UP AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FOLLOWING THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MAIN
TERMINALS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AND THUS WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST.
OVERALL...EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN GUSTY...AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A BKN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 3000
FT AGL MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. SO CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* VERY LOW FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
OR NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCHC TSRA LATE.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY WITH A SCHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PBSL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND ARE INCREASING TO ARND 25
KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30KT...WITH THE 30KT WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
TUESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO WESTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SEVERAL
QUICKLY MOVING SHORT WAVES PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH SYSTEM
PASSES...RESULTING IN A HUMID AND WET PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW
PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE REACHED.
GIVEN OUR TIMING PROBLEMS...WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO
FALL AFTER 00Z...STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE WEST AS
DRYER AIR MAY ARRIVE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.
AS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL SLIGHTLY AND GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
ALOFT AND INDIANA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS SHIRT WAVE TO THE
EAST AND THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS NEAR 80. SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION...THUS
JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU WILL BE EXPECTED. WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGH TEMPS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
FROM BLOW OFF CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
BEGIN TO REACH CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE
DRY DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY...AND A PLEASANT EVENING SHOULD
BE HAD...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MARK A RETURN AFTER
06Z WED. THUS WILL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND
KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY
AS PRECIP FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO REACH THE WABASH
AROUND 12Z. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PURISTS
ALOFT AND GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS INDIANA. NAM IS A BIT MORE SMOOTH WITH IT/S SOLUTION THAN
THE GFS. THE NAM IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE POORLY ORGANIZED
PATTERNS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH. NONETHELESS...SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AIDING LIFT
AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...THE 310K
GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 9 G/KG. UNSURE ON SEVERE THREAT
ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNLESS HEATING OCCURS.
MORE HEATING WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SVR. WE WILL NEED
TO WAIT AND SEE FOR NOW. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY
AS AT LEAST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. FURTHERMORE WILL TREND
TEMPS TOWARD A BLEND ON HIGHS.
PRECIP ONCE AGAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE DYNAMICS WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE DEPART...CERTAINLY
THIS REMAINS QUITE DE PENDANT UPON TIMING AND ARRIVAL...WHICH
APPEAR A BIT IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL TREND HIGHS
POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...AND LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO TIME OF ARRIVAL CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL TREND
TOWARD CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLEND ON LOW TEMPS.
GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA
AND THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A DRY COLUMN. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNREACHABLE AND WILL TREND
TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN DRY AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ALLBLEND
INITIALIZATION HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. NO REAL IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE
SO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH HANDLED
GUIDANCE WELL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A TAD FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.
ADDITIONALLY...ALL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROJECTED
TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIALLY DECENT RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S...FOR
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 030200Z. UNTIL
THEN...THREAT OF CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE KIND/KBMG VICINITY...WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS IN AND NEAR THE HEAVER CELLS.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS 015-040 SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING
ONCE THE WAVE PASSES. MODEL DATA HINT AT SOME LOW CLOUD AROUND 010
DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT THE SIGNALS AREN/T AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE LOWER
CEILINGS IS LOW. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
SURFACE WINDS 200-220 DEGREES 10-14 KTS THIS EVENING WILL VEER A BIT
MORE TOWARDS 220-230 LATER TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 7-10 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
436 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SEVERAL
QUICKLY MOVING SHORT WAVES PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH SYSTEM
PASSES...RESULTING IN A HUMID AND WET PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW
PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE REACHED.
GIVEN OUR TIMING PROBLEMS...WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO
FALL AFTER 00Z...STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE WEST AS
DRYER AIR MAY ARRIVE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.
AS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL SLIGHTLY AND GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
ALOFT AND INDIANA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS SHIRT WAVE TO THE
EAST AND THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS NEAR 80. SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION...THUS
JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU WILL BE EXPECTED. WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGH TEMPS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
FROM BLOW OFF CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
BEGIN TO REACH CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE
DRY DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY...AND A PLEASANT EVENING SHOULD
BE HAD...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MARK A RETURN AFTER
06Z WED. THUS WILL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND
KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY
AS PRECIP FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO REACH THE WABASH
AROUND 12Z. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PURISTS
ALOFT AND GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS INDIANA. NAM IS A BIT MORE SMOOTH WITH IT/S SOLUTION THAN
THE GFS. THE NAM IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE POORLY ORGANIZED
PATTERNS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH. NONETHELESS...SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AIDING LIFT
AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...THE 310K
GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 9 G/KG. UNSURE ON SEVERE THREAT
ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNLESS HEATING OCCURS.
MORE HEATING WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SVR. WE WILL NEED
TO WAIT AND SEE FOR NOW. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY
AS AT LEAST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. FURTHERMORE WILL TREND
TEMPS TOWARD A BLEND ON HIGHS.
PRECIP ONCE AGAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE DYNAMICS WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE DEPART...CERTAINLY
THIS REMAINS QUITE DE PENDANT UPON TIMING AND ARRIVAL...WHICH
APPEAR A BIT IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL TREND HIGHS
POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...AND LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO TIME OF ARRIVAL CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL TREND
TOWARD CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLEND ON LOW TEMPS.
GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA
AND THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A DRY COLUMN. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNREACHABLE AND WILL TREND
TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN DRY AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ALLBLEND
INITIALIZATION HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. NO REAL IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE
SO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH HANDLED
GUIDANCE WELL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A TAD FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.
ADDITIONALLY...ALL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROJECTED
TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIALLY DECENT RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S...FOR
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 022100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN INDIANA
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER WAVE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF KIND AROUND 030100Z. UNTIL
THEN...THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF KIND WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY
SHIFTING WINDS IN AND NEAR THE HEAVER CELLS.
WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON THE WIND SPEEDS ON THE UPDATE BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WITH CEILINGS FINALLY IMPROVING AS OF 17Z OBSERVATIONS...HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND PULLED MVFR MENTION FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD KLAF AND KIND. HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
RADAR MOSAIC JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. NO LIGHTNING AS OF YET SO CONTINUED
VCSH MENTION UNTIL INTRODUCING VCTS BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...EARLIER AT
WESTERN TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 KTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO IMPROVE VF FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION BUT LOOK TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY DROP SLIGHTLY BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...LEE/JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
253 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SEVERAL
QUICKLY MOVING SHORT WAVES PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH SYSTEM
PASSES...RESULTING IN A HUMID AND WET PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW
PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE REACHED.
GIVEN OUR TIMING PROBLEMS...WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO
FALL AFTER 00Z...STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE WEST AS
DRYER AIR MAY ARRIVE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.
AS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL SLIGHTLY AND GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
ALOFT AND INDIANA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS SHIRT WAVE TO THE
EAST AND THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS NEAR 80. SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION...THUS
JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU WILL BE EXPECTED. WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGH TEMPS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
FROM BLOW OFF CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
BEGIN TO REACH CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE
DRY DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY...AND A PLEASANT EVENING SHOULD
BE HAD...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MARK A RETURN AFTER
06Z WED. THUS WILL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND
KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY
AS PRECIP FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO REACH THE WABASH
AROUND 12Z. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PURISTS
ALOFT AND GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS INDIANA. NAM IS A BIT MORE SMOOTH WITH IT/S SOLUTION THAN
THE GFS. THE NAM IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE POORLY ORGANIZED
PATTERNS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH. NONETHELESS...SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AIDING LIFT
AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...THE 310K
GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 9 G/KG. UNSURE ON SEVERE THREAT
ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNLESS HEATING OCCURS.
MORE HEATING WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SVR. WE WILL NEED
TO WAIT AND SEE FOR NOW. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY
AS AT LEAST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. FURTHERMORE WILL TREND
TEMPS TOWARD A BLEND ON HIGHS.
PRECIP ONCE AGAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE DYNAMICS WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE DEPART...CERTAINLY
THIS REMAINS QUITE DE PENDANT UPON TIMING AND ARRIVAL...WHICH
APPEAR A BIT IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL TREND HIGHS
POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...AND LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO TIME OF ARRIVAL CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL TREND
TOWARD CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLEND ON LOW TEMPS.
GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA
AND THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A DRY COLUMN. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNREACHABLE AND WILL TREND
TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN DRY AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ALLBLEND
INITIALIZATION HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. NO REAL IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE
SO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH HANDLED
GUIDANCE WELL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A TAD FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.
ADDITIONALLY...ALL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROJECTED
TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIALLY DECENT RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S...FOR
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
WITH CEILINGS FINALLY IMPROVING AS OF 17Z OBSERVATIONS...HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND PULLED MVFR MENTION FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD KLAF AND KIND. HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
RADAR MOSAIC JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. NO LIGHTNING AS OF YET SO CONTINUED
VCSH MENTION UNTIL INTRODUCING VCTS BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...EARLIER AT
WESTERN TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 KTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO IMPROVE VF FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION BUT LOOK TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY DROP SLIGHTLY BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...LEE
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SEVERAL
QUICKLY MOVING SHORT WAVES PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH SYSTEM
PASSES...RESULTING IN A HUMID AND WET PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW
PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE REACHED.
GIVEN OUR TIMING PROBLEMS...WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO
FALL AFTER 00Z...STICKING CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE WEST AS
DRYER AIR MAY ARRIVE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.
AS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL SLIGHTLY AND GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS
ALOFT AND INDIANA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS SHIRT WAVE TO THE
EAST AND THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER TEH CENTRAL PLAINS.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS NEAR 80. SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION...THUS
JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU WILL BE EXPECTED. WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGH TEMPS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
FROM BLOW OFF CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
BEGIN TO REACH CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE
DRY DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY...AND A PLEASANT EVENING SHOULD
BE HAD...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MARK A RETURN AFTER
06Z WED. THUS WILL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND
KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY
AS PRECIP FROM CONVCETION UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO REACH THE WABASH
AROUND 12Z. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PERISTS
ALOFT AND GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS INDIANA. NAM IS A BIT MORE SMOOTH WITH IT/S SOLUTION THAN
THE GFS. THE NAM IS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN THE POORLY ORGANIZED
PATTERNS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH. NONETHELESS...SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AIDING LIFT
AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...THE 310K
GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLUIDE ON WEDENSDAY WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS OF 9 G/KG. UNSURE ON SEVERE THREAT
ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILTY
PATRICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNLESS HEATING OCCURS. MORE
HEATING WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SVR. WE WILL NEED TO
WAIT AND SEE FOR NOW. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS
AT LEAST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. FURTHERMORE WILL TREND
TEMPS TOWARD A BLEND ON HIGHS.
PRECIP ONCE AGAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE DYNAMICS WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE DEPART...CERTAINLY
THIS REMAINS QUITE DEPENDANT UPON TIMING AND ARRIVAL...WHICH
APPEAR A BIT IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL TREND HIGHS
POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...AND LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO TIME OF ARRIVAL CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL TREND
TOWARD CLEAING SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLEND ON LOW TEMPS.
GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA
AND THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A DRY COLUMN. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNREACHABLE AND WILL TREND
TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUING
INTO THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...THEY ARE SOMEWHAT LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN
IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THIS ALLOWS FOR THE INSERTION OF A 36 HOUR DRY
PERIOD LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
IN CONTROL. THIS REQUIRED SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM ALLBLEND.
ON TEMPS...OVERALL PATTERN IS QUASIZONAL TO WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC...BECOMING MORE CYCLONIC VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
EXPECT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND THESE WERE INITIALIZED WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
WITH CEILINGS FINALLY IMPROVING AS OF 17Z OBSERVATIONS...HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND PULLED MVFR MENTION FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD KLAF AND KIND. HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
RADAR MOSAIC JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. NO LIGHTNING AS OF YET SO CONTINUED
VCSH MENTION UNTIL INTRODUCING VCTS BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...EARLIER AT
WESTERN TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 KTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO IMPROVE VF FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION BUT LOOK TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY DROP SLIGHTLY BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...LEE/SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
410 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...
WHILE THE LOCAL AREA IS STILL WAITING ON SOME HELP FROM UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO DRY THINGS OUT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP EXISTS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THE HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN DOING AN
EXCELLENT JOB WITH INITIALIZED REFLECTIVITY LOCATION AND MOVEMENT.
IT SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST PART BY 03Z. BASED
ON YESTERDAY...THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN A COUPLE HOURS SOONER.
MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND THUS HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF
CHANCE POPS THERE.
.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE NM/TX/MEXICO BORDER WILL BEGIN
EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY.
THE CWA WILL STILL BE CAUGHT ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...DAYTIME HEATING WILL FIRE OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF DECENT RAIN COVERAGE. THINKING AROUND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE. WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL BE BACK IN LINE WITH MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR 2.
TROPICS REMAIN QUIET AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXISTS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THERE IS LITTLE APPRECIABLE MODEL CONTINUITY BETWEEN
THEMSELVES AND RUN TO RUN ON DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA OR SOUTHERN
GULF IN THE NEXT WEEK.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR
STATUS THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOW CIGS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT FOG
WHERE MODERATE RAIN FELL TODAY COULD DEVELOP AFTER 6Z. CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OMS ELATE THIS EVNG BUT CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHRA OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TOMORROW LETS DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS/WAVES 2 TO 4
FEET. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH
THE ONLY CHANGE REALLY JUST DIRECTION BECOMING MORE SSE VS MORE
EASTERLY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE TUESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING ISOLATED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
MEFFER
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 88 70 91 / 20 40 10 10
BTR 71 89 73 91 / 20 40 10 10
ASD 70 86 71 89 / 20 50 20 10
MSY 75 86 75 88 / 20 50 20 10
GPT 76 84 76 86 / 30 40 20 10
PQL 70 85 69 87 / 30 40 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC... A TROUGH EXTENDED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES OVER NE MN. A FRONT EXTENDED
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NRN MN. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS
LIFTING QUICKLY TO THE ENE INTO THE FAR ERN CWA LEAVING SCT/ISOLD
SHRA OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD TSRA OVER NW WI.
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE SCT SHRA
INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FCST MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE
400-800 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEST AFT 06Z. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
TUESDAY...SCT SHRA IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING AND STRONG DRYING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SHRTWV. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FAR E ON NW FLOW FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE EXITING 500MB LOW JUST W OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
LAKE HURON AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT. A SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION
WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND DIVE ACROSS WI
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR S.
IF THE STRONGER 12Z NAM PANS OUT IT COULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY
OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
CLIPPING MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR NOW...AS THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE MOISTURE ABLE TO
ROUND THE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...AVERAGING ABOUT
6HRS WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AT 18Z THURSDAY
OFF THE GFS AND NAM...WHILE ACROSS MUCH WEAKER AND OVER CENTRAL MN
OFF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TREND FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.
EXPECT GOOD MIXING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 750MB...IN
FACT ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 600MB. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT RH VALUES TO SLOWLY
FALL EACH AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTERIOR W AND FAR E. PW
VALUES OFF THE GFS FALL TO AROUND 0.35-0.4IN OVER THE E HALF OF
UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING /NEAR 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. AS NOTED...FIRE CONCERNS WILL INCREASE BUT WINDS SHOULD
KEEP IT FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.
THE NEXT 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS ALBERTA AND AND SASKATCHEWAN ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR SW FLOW TO RETURN ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE N PLAINS. THE SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA
AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH ND. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS MN THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL INTO CANADA...CLOSER TO THE WRAPPED UP 500MB
LOW. SO WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE BEST CHANCE OFF THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS UPPER
MI. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE A MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND S PLAINS AT
18Z SATURDAY TRACKING NE UP THE SFC TROUGH...BY 12Z SUNDAY THE SFC
LOW COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE S MN/WI BORDER TO IA...TO ILLINOIS.
THAT IS ENOUGH SPREAD TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND
SATURDAY...OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT KCMX/KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO IFR/MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON WITH GREATER MIXING WITH
INCREASING WRLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIKEWISE...EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR VFR AT KIWD BEHIND THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD
AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON TUE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR ANY TSRA
OVER MAINLY THE WRN LAKES. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED INTO THU AS A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY SLOWLY
BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-
263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
151 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS MORNING AS SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS
AND SOLID TEMPERATURE ADVECTION HAVE WARMED READINGS TO AROUND 80.
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH LI/S AROUND -4C. WIND FIELDS ARE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE WITH THE 850MB LLJ PROGD TO BE IN THE 30-40
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL JET IS ON THE ORDER OF 45
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 30-40 KNOTS AT 21Z. A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO PLOW EAST AS WELL MARCHING ACROSS
WISCONSIN TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN AT 15Z.
SO...THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST THE
SCATTERED CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. GIVEN A UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE
EXPECTING STRONG WINDS TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. OF EQUAL CONCERN
THOUGH WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS AS PWAT VALUES ARE UP
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS WILL HAVE THE THREAT FOR
MARGINAL HAIL AS WELL.
IN TERMS OF MORPHOLOGY THERE WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL LAKE
SHADOW IN THE DIVERGENT WINDS OFF THE LAKE AT LEAST INITIALLY. LIFT
VIA THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH A DECENT SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE
WEATHER THOUGH WILL BE INLAND FROM NEAR HIGHWAY 131 AND POINTS
EAST. HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD
DISCRETE CELLS FIRING INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A LINE OF
STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD BE
SWEEPING EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 7-9PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST INTO OUR REGION AND STRONG SSW WINDS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT A WARM A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO LOWER MI.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING/MAX
INSTABILITY WHEN SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ML CAPE VALUES WILL REACH
500-1000 J/KG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION WOULD BE
NEAR TO MAINLY EAST OF US-131 AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE LATEST
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND FORCING WILL
COME FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WX THREAT IS MITIGATED BY
SEVERAL FACTORS THOUGH INCLUDING RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY/FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TODAY AND WEAK BULK SHEAR
AROUND 20 KTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS
TO IMPACT OUR FCST AREA WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SPREAD IS STILL NOTED
AMONG THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE WITH 00Z NAM SHOWING AN MCS
COULD AFFECT OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH IT/S FURTHER NORTH
SOLUTION.
HOWEVER MOST SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL
EITHER CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA SOUTH OF I-96 OR MISS OUR
AREA ALTOGETHER AND AFFECT IN/OH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THIS POTENTIAL FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
ANOTHER STRETCH OF PLEASANT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES SINKING
FARTHER SOUTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S AND CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN MODERATE TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE WARM
AIR TRIES TO RETURN NORTH AHEAD OF A WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE/AMPLIFIED THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN
FOCUS ON IFR VISIBILITIES IN +TSRA COMES WITH THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN. OB SITES IN
SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL DROPPED DOWN TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR BRIEFLY
AS THE LINE CAME THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE IN THE TSRA ACTIVITY / PERHAPS ENHANCED A BIT
WITH SOME DOWNBURSTS AT OR ABOVE 40 KTS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE AFTER THE MAIN LINE COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BIT OF A
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...HOWEVER.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OPTED TO EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ALL ZONES GIVEN THE
WINDS IN PLACE AT THE PRESENT TIME. WAVES HAVE BUILT TO AROUND 5
FEET AT THE LUDINGTON BUOY IN THE LONGEST FETCH IN OUR MARINE
ZONES. WAVES ARE MORE IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE FROM GRAND HAVEN TO
THE SOUTH. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH DEW POINT
AIR IS BEING ADVECTED OUT OF THE WATERS OF THE BIG LAKE. BEACH
HAZARDS ARE NOT A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN GIVEN HOW COLD THE WATER IS
STILL. HIGHEST WAVES ARE UP NORTH AND THE WATER TEMP AT LUDINGTON
STATE PARK THIS MORNING WAS 52 DEGREES. SO...NOT EXPECTING A HIGH
POPULATION OF FOLKS VENTURING INTO THE WATER JUST YET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IN A HIGH PWAT / UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL ENSURE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT ALL PLACES WILL BENEFIT FROM
SOAKING RAINS...LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME. SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBS MAY BE PRONE TO
RISES...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. AFTER THIS EVENING...THE
THREAT ENDS. NO FLOODING ON MAIN STEM RIVERS IS OCCURRING.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN
EXPECTED MCS THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS MAY END UP
PROPAGATING JUST SOUTH OF MOST OF OUR CWA...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A
CERTAINTY YET AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
CONCERNS FOCUS ON AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE WRN CWA JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS GENERALLY RESULTED
IN LITTLE TO NO PCPN OVER UPPER MI FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS. YESTERDAYS RAIN SHOWERS AND THE CONTINUED MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS HOWEVER RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS
FOG/STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INLAND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SE PORTION OF UPPER MI ALONG LAKE MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.
EXPECT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL
DIURNAL MIXING HELPS SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVELS BY LATE MORNING. WITH
SPOTTER REPORTS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE KEWEENAW HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 11 AM.
THE LATEST HRRR RUN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF
SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER WI. ONE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SCNTRL
WI INTO NE WI LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ALONG THETA-E RDG AXIS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WHILE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WRN WI IS TIED TO MID-LVL
Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH MN AND NE IA AND
LIFT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BAND OVER SCNTRL ERN WI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALLY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SE UPPER
MI. MEANWHILE...THE RAIN BAND OVER WRN AND NCNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SUPPORTING IT ROTATES
NE FROM MN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF
APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG AND PWATS TO NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
35-40 KT MAY ALLOW SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT MAIN THREATS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO ERN COUNTIES MAINLY
AFT 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TIED WITH THE
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOC SECONDARY COLD FRONT ROTATES THROUGH
THE AREA. LINGERING INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND NEG
SHOWALTER INDICES COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TSRA INTO AT LEAST
THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FAR E ON NW FLOW FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE EXITING 500MB LOW JUST W OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
LAKE HURON AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT. A SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION
WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND DIVE ACROSS WI
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR S.
IF THE STRONGER 12Z NAM PANS OUT IT COULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY
OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
CLIPPING MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR NOW...AS THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE MOISTURE ABLE TO
ROUND THE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...AVERAGING ABOUT
6HRS WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AT 18Z THURSDAY
OFF THE GFS AND NAM...WHILE ACROSS MUCH WEAKER AND OVER CENTRAL MN
OFF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TREND FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.
EXPECT GOOD MIXING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 750MB...IN
FACT ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 600MB. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT RH VALUES TO SLOWLY
FALL EACH AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTERIOR W AND FAR E. PW
VALUES OFF THE GFS FALL TO AROUND 0.35-0.4IN OVER THE E HALF OF
UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING /NEAR 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. AS NOTED...FIRE CONCERNS WILL INCREASE BUT WINDS SHOULD
KEEP IT FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.
THE NEXT 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS ALBERTA AND AND SASKATCHEWAN ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR SW FLOW TO RETURN ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE N PLAINS. THE SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA
AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH ND. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS MN THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL INTO CANADA...CLOSER TO THE WRAPPED UP 500MB
LOW. SO WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE BEST CHANCE OFF THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS UPPER
MI. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE A MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND S PLAINS AT
18Z SATURDAY TRACKING NE UP THE SFC TROUGH...BY 12Z SUNDAY THE SFC
LOW COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE S MN/WI BORDER TO IA...TO ILLINOIS.
THAT IS ENOUGH SPREAD TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND
SATURDAY...OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT KCMX/KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO IFR/MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON WITH GREATER MIXING WITH
INCREASING WRLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIKEWISE...EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR VFR AT KIWD BEHIND THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD
AND TO MVFR AT KSAW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON TUE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 30KTS THROUGH THE FCST
PD. LIGHTER WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT AREAS
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE SO HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN ZONE OF LAKE. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
CONCERNS FOCUS ON AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE WRN CWA JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS GENERALLY RESULTED
IN LITTLE TO NO PCPN OVER UPPER MI FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS. YESTERDAYS RAIN SHOWERS AND THE CONTINUED MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS HOWEVER RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS
FOG/STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INLAND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SE PORTION OF UPPER MI ALONG LAKE MI AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.
EXPECT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL
DIURNAL MIXING HELPS SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVELS BY LATE MORNING. WITH
SPOTTER REPORTS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE KEWEENAW HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 11 AM.
THE LATEST HRRR RUN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF
SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER WI. ONE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SCNTRL
WI INTO NE WI LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ALONG THETA-E RDG AXIS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WHILE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WRN WI IS TIED TO MID-LVL
Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH MN AND NE IA AND
LIFT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BAND OVER SCNTRL ERN WI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALLY DIE OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SE UPPER
MI. MEANWHILE...THE RAIN BAND OVER WRN AND NCNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SUPPORTING IT ROTATES
NE FROM MN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF
APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG AND PWATS TO NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA AS WELL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
35-40 KT MAY ALLOW SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT MAIN THREATS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO ERN COUNTIES MAINLY
AFT 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TIED WITH THE
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOC SECONDARY COLD FRONT ROTATES THROUGH
THE AREA. LINGERING INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND NEG
SHOWALTER INDICES COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TSRA INTO AT LEAST
THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FAR E ON NW FLOW FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE EXITING 500MB LOW JUST W OF JAMES BAY EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
LAKE HURON AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT. A SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION
WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND DIVE ACROSS WI
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR S.
IF THE STRONGER 12Z NAM PANS OUT IT COULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY
OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
CLIPPING MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS OUT OF
THE FCST FOR NOW...AS THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE MOISTURE ABLE TO
ROUND THE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...AVERAGING ABOUT
6HRS WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AT 18Z THURSDAY
OFF THE GFS AND NAM...WHILE ACROSS MUCH WEAKER AND OVER CENTRAL MN
OFF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TREND FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.
EXPECT GOOD MIXING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 750MB...IN
FACT ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 600MB. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT RH VALUES TO SLOWLY
FALL EACH AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTERIOR W AND FAR E. PW
VALUES OFF THE GFS FALL TO AROUND 0.35-0.4IN OVER THE E HALF OF
UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING /NEAR 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. AS NOTED...FIRE CONCERNS WILL INCREASE BUT WINDS SHOULD
KEEP IT FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.
THE NEXT 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS ALBERTA AND AND SASKATCHEWAN ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
PUSHING ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR SW FLOW TO RETURN ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE N PLAINS. THE SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA
AT 00Z FRIDAY WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH ND. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS MN THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL INTO CANADA...CLOSER TO THE WRAPPED UP 500MB
LOW. SO WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE BEST CHANCE OFF THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS UPPER
MI. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE A MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND S PLAINS AT
18Z SATURDAY TRACKING NE UP THE SFC TROUGH...BY 12Z SUNDAY THE SFC
LOW COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM THE S MN/WI BORDER TO IA...TO ILLINOIS.
THAT IS ENOUGH SPREAD TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND
SATURDAY...OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT KCMX AND KSAW WILL
IMPROVE TO IFR OR MVFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED
MIXING AND THE ONSET OF STEADIER SHRA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING IN FM MN. CONDITIONS AT KIWD WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR THIS MORNING UNDER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR OR VFR BEHIND THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING
MOISTURE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR
OR LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD AND TO MVFR AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
OTHER THAN SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 30KTS THROUGH THE FCST
PD. LIGHTER WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT AREAS
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE SO HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN ZONE OF LAKE. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS BEHIND SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON BAY TO SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
305 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
HAEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRON LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW FLOW HAS WRMD THE AREA NICELY THIS AFTN AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
TOCH 90F ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN NEAR SYR. SOME CONV HAS DVLPD OVER
XTRM WRN NY ALONG THE FRICTIONAL CONV BNDRY SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND
ARE MVG NE ATTM. OTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL ARM WEAKEN THE CONV AS IT
MVES EAST AND HAS LTL IN THE WAY OF SHWRS OVRNGT. NAM HOLDS CONV
TOGETHER BETTER AND HAS SOME WEAKENING CONV THRU MUCH OF THE NRN
THIRD OF THE AREA...LOW RESOLUTION GFS KIND SMEARS THE DEPICTION
OF THE CONV WHILE THE EURO GNRLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY.
WITH THE CONV ALREADY FIRING...DESPITE THE MODLE CONSENSUS HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...PRIMARILY OF THE NRN ZONES
TNGT IN CASE SOME OF THE CONV HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DRIFTS EAST AS
THE NAM SHOWS.
OTRW...A QUIET NGT WITH MODERATE TEMPS AND WINDS AHD OF THE APRCHG
FNTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS USUAL...NOT A CLR CUT FNTL PASSAGE WITH THE MODELS
CONCENTRATING MUCH OF THE CONV TMRW ALONG A PRE FNTL TROF PASSING
THRU THE AREA BEFORE 18Z. NAM IS ONCE AGAIN AN OUTLIER WITH A
SECOND LINE OF CONV DVLPG ALONG THE COLD FNT LTR IN THE DAY AND IN
THE EARLY EVE. NAM FCSTD SNDGS ARE INDEED QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES BETTER THAN 1500 J/KG. GFS AND EURO DO ALSO SHOW SOME AFNT
CONV AS THE UPR WV AND SFC FNT APRCHS...SO HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
THE LIKELY POPS WHERE THERE/S THE BEST CHANCE PCPN EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH THE TROF...BUT WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS THRU THE AFTN AND
INTO PART OF THE EVE TO CVR THE POSSIBILTY OF A SECOND ROUND OF
CONV.
NEXT WX SYSTEM ARRIVES THUR AND WHILE THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EURO AND
GFS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THE NAM OFFERS A MUCH DFRNT
SOLN. EURO/GFS SOLN KEEP AND OPEN WV ACROSS THE LAKES AND PUSH A
WEAKER CLSD SFC LOW ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WED...
CONCENTRATING SHWRS AND TSTMS ALONG THE OLD SFC OVER PA. NAM
CLOSES OFF THE UPR LOW AND WRAPS UP A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM OVER
THE SRN LAKES BRINGING THE CONV FURTHER NORTH. WILL LEAN TWRD THE
LESS DRAMATIC GFS/EURO AND KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA...HIER
IN THE SOUTH...FOR THE END OF THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RETURN TO DRY AND MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EXPECT WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FOR ALL INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BEAUTY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN WARMER
VALUES ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
BEYOND THIS...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST. FOR NOW...HAVE ADVERTISED CHC POPS BEGINNING MONDAY WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE STAGES OF NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT COOLER YET SEASONABLE TEMPS /LOW TO MID
70S/ THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HRS OF THE FCST
CYCLE AS UPPER RIDGING RETREATS TO THE EAST. FCST MODELS DO
DEVELOP CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER
OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINALS IS MUCH TO LOW AT
THIS POINT TO INCLUDE WITH CURRENT UPDATE. FOR NOW...ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER SHOULD EXIST ALOFT OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT MUCH VALLEY FOG
FORMATION.
BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED RAIN/STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER 14Z AS
PRECIP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE PREDOMINATE RA WITH A PROB30 GROUP
AT ALL SITES FOR THUNDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS
WILL BE CAPABLY OF SHORT DURATION MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 8-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.
FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
548 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
DID EXPAND THE FOG MENTION TO ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ITS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT SHOULD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
BECOME NECESSARY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER
50S ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
SKIES CLEAR...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THUS...WIDESPREAD SURFACE SATURATION IS EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 21 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO
SUPPORT THE FOG THREAT AT MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF
RECENT RAINFALL AND GREEN-UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
UPPER LOW IDENTIFIED ON 18Z/NAM MODEL OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW IN MINNESOTA WILL ALSO EXIT THE
REGION LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LARGE CLOUD
SHIELD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL SHRINK SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST WILL END BY SUNSET. AS
CLOUDS DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
INCREASES CENTRAL AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALREADY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY BRUSHING THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. FOR
TEMPERATURES IT WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
EXITING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE
DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A BREAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SET UP
WARMING AND INSTABILITY AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OFF AND ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MIGHT BRING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
IMPULSES REACHES NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN COOLING TO THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
MVFR/VFR STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A COOL...MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER
IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
341 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
UPPER LOW NEAR BEMIDJI AT MID AFTERNOON WITH SFC LOW NEAR HIBBING
MN. WRAPAROUND RAIN AREA OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH A SLOW END OF THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FCST TO SEE SHOWERS TIL LATE
TONIGHT.
QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF CLEARING AND TEMPS AND IF ANY FOG
FORMS. RAP MODEL AVIATION FCSTS DO INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW
CLOUDS PSBL IN THE MINOT-DEVILS LAKE-JAMESTOWN REGION LATE TONIGHT
SO COORD WITH WFO BIS AND INSERTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN FAR WRN
FCST AREA. DO EXPECT CLEARING TO PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT REACHING THE RRV TOWARD 06Z AND THEN FAR EAST AROUND 12Z.
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER WITH SUNSHINE AND MIDDAY/AFTN
CUMULUS CLOUDS. WARMER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE AND AREA OF RAIN
TO BYPASS OUR IMMEDIATE FCST AREA TO OUR SOUTH TUES AFTN-NIGHT
WITH RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SD/FAR SRN MN/IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WRN CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF A FRONT ENTERING
ERN ND WED AFTN AND THEN SPREADING EAST WED NIGHT. BRIEF BREAK
PSBL BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AFTN. MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME CONTINUES TO LOOK WET
AND COOL. ALL MODELS START WITH A 500MB LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND ZONAL FLOW TO ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER LOTS OF DIFFERENCE AFTER
THIS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ANOTHER WAVE FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HARD TO FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR TIME FRAME AND GO
DRY AS MODELS HAVE MARKED DIFFERENCES WITH THEIR PCPN FIELDS. THERE
WILL BE DRY PERIODS MIXED IN BUT WILL STICK WITH INHERITED BROAD
PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT. WITH THE WET AND CLOUDY PATTERN TEMPS WILL
STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND
EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE
AND HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PEG A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR THEM. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN BUT JUST A PERSISTENT STEADY LIGHT RAIN.
ALSO SEEING GUSTY NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY MID TO LATE EVENING OR SO.
WITH THE RECENT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS THINK THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
FOG AROUND SUNRISE BUT IT COULD DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING.
STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT CLEARING AND EXACTLY WHEN IT MAY OCCUR BUT
WILL SCATTER THINGS OUT TUESDAY MORNING AS A BEST FIRST GUESS. WINDS
WILL STAY PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH 18Z TUE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE DEFINITELY SHOWING AN UNSEASONABLE COOL
AND SHOWERY DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS
TO THE MID/UPPER 50S PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL...WITH LOWER TO
MID 60S SOUTHWEST. TRENDED THE SHOWERS DOWN SLOWLY. MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG AFTER LATE TONIGHT IN THE WET AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
RADAR LOOPS AND LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A PERSISTENT SHOWER
AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WITH H8
TEMPERATURE FIELD AS COOL AS IT IS...CURRENT THINKING IS THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER SO REMOVED THUNDER FOR
THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WENT A BIT COOLER SOUTH CENTRAL
TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
SHOWERS CONTINUE IN DEFORMATION ZONE FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND SLOWLY EXITING
LOW EXTENDS WEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA...SO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO START THE DAY. AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL EXTENDS SOUTH PAST GARRISON
WITH EVEN A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO BISMARCK.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR NOW EXTENDING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THINK THAT
BY THE TIME WE SEE A THREAT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE SHIFTED EVEN FARTHER EAST.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST REFLECTIVITY STILL SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EAST IN THE
DEVILS LAKE AREA AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG
THE SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SOME MODERATE SHOWERS IN
AND NORTH OF MINOT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SLOWLY
SLIDING THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY FALL OFF AFTER 18 UTC FROM WEST
TO EAST. CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS ALSO DIMINISHED TONIGHT AND DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF CHANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THUS HAVE KEPT THUNDER
CHANCES AT ISOLATED.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND MUCH
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN HAS MOST
LIKELY ALREADY FALLEN FROM THIS SYSTEM...NOT KNOWING THE FULL
EFFECTS OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND SMALL STREAMS IS STILL PRESENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE TUESDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
CLOSEST TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST SO WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE...AND
HOLDS OFF ON CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STRONGER BUT THE EARLIER WAVE WILL HELP CLEAR
OUT A LOT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS THE MOISTURE RECOVERY ON
THURSDAY LOOKS MEAGER IN THE WEST AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD.
WE REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH AND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OUR
SOUTH. COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT POSSIBLE
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS KEPT SOME SMALL
POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOW DEWPOINTS...THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
AT 17Z SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH A MOIST
CIRCULATION AROUND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BRINGING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR THIS EVENING. HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE
WIDESPREAD MVFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY TONIGHT.
INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AFTER 08Z KMOT-KBIS-KJMS BUT
KEPT VSBYS 3SM OR ABOVE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
107 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING AND LOWERED POPS AND TEMPS. A
LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS MOVING DOWN OUT OF ND THIS MORNING
AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP ANY
DAYTIME HEATING IN CHECK THIS MORNING. THEN WITH CAA THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST WILL JUST NOT BE ABLE
TO CATCH UP. SO DROPPED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S. PRECIP ON THE
OTHER HAND IS GETTING HUNG UP IN ND. THE HRRR DOES NOT HAVE ANY
PRECIP ENTERING THE NORTHEAST UNTIL AROUND 18Z SO ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS PASSED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA
THROUGH THE DAY AS AREA WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW. A FEW WIDELY
SCT THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
AS AREA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER THAN
RECENT DAYS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH ALREADY BEGINS
TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST CWA ON TUESDAY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW AND SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 12 AND ESPECIALLY GOOD SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212. ALTHOUGH
0-6KM SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE OVER SOUTHERN SD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...MLCAPE VALUES ARE VERY LOW WITH ALL THE INSTABILITY
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...CLOSER TO THE SFC WARM
FRONT. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SVR POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
BREAK IN THE ACTION MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BOUNDARY THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...KEEPING THE CWA IN A
PRIME AREA FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. CANNOT REALLY RULE OUT
ANY TIME PERIOD THAT WILL BE DRY...SO WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND POPS...WHICH KEEP SCHC/CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S THURSDAY GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
A STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OFF TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
SCATTERING OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THE EDGES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS
ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS
FOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AND THE STRATUS
DECK TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
STATUS SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND SKIES NEVER CLEAR. IF THE FORECAST
GOES AS PLANNED AND SKIES CLEAR...FOG IS ALSO A CONSIDERATION.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THESE DETAILS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE NEXT PLANNED
FORECAST.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SERR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
246 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK SO FAR. CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST HAS ALSO KEPT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING FROM WEST TN/WEST
KY...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO
AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW POPS SPREADING EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY RESULTING
IN LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE...BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO RETURN WELL INTO THE 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
MID STATE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEGLIGIBLE AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S PLATEAU AND
LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY AS A 60 KT 500 MB JET PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ALL SUGGEST THIS WILL DRIVE AN MCS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE KY BORDER
NORTHWARD...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN OUR AREA
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MID STATE IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES BOTH
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 69 87 70 91 / 30 30 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 68 86 68 90 / 50 30 20 10
CROSSVILLE 63 82 63 85 / 20 30 20 10
COLUMBIA 69 86 70 91 / 30 30 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 68 86 68 90 / 30 40 20 10
WAVERLY 69 86 68 91 / 50 30 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN MN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH
RIDGING IN-BETWEEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN
TROUGHING AND A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN MN UPPER
LOW. THIS DRY SLOT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING HELPED TO CLEAR
SKIES OUT FROM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S / LOW 80S HAS RESULTED IN 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND
NO CIN. THIS INSTABILITY AND LACK OF CAPPING HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF
IN PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TO THE NORTHWEST...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXIST OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN.
925MB TEMPS ARE SIGNIFICANT COLDER TOO UNDER THESE CLOUDS...NOTED BY
10C TEMP AT BIS AT 12Z COMPARED TO 16-20C OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT NEAR ALEXANDRIA
MN.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY ON ITS WEST SIDE LOOKS TO BECOME CENTERED OVER WI.
FIRST...ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND
WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAY HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME STRONGER CELLS TIL ABOUT 5-6 PM WITH
0-6KM SHEAR RUNNING AROUND 30 KT AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT 20-25KT. THEN
AS THAT TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRATUS AND
SHOWERS. COLD FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z.
REGARDING THOSE SHOWERS...MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOUD DEPTHS WOULD
SUPPORT THEM MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD
PICK UP A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...AS 925MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KT.
DAYTIME HEATING PLUS SUBSIDENCE AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WILL HELP CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA
BY MID MORNING. UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES THEN LOOKS
TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WITH
THIS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA DRY. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE WARMER
AIR ADVECT BACK IN WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO MAKE A DECENT JUMP
DURING THE DAY...FROM 10-12C AT 12Z TO AROUND 18C AT 00Z. PLENTY OF
SUN FROM THE MID MORNING ON UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PROGGED TO COME CLOSE TO
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING NUMEROUS SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA SHEARING OUT AND PROVIDING DPVA FORCING TO THIS REGION.
PLENTIFUL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION TOO. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE THE SAME AMOUNT OF
SPREAD HANDLING THIS CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 02.12Z NAM AND 02.09Z SREF STILL SHOW A NORTHERN
TRACK...BASICALLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06-18Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 02.12Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE 02.12Z HIRES-ARW SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.
SINCE THE CONVECTION IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A BOWING
MCS...AIDED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING HIGH CAPE
OUT OF KANSAS...CORFIDI VECTORS AND IN PARTICULAR THE FORWARD
PROPAGATING VECTORS NEED TO BE FOLLOWED. THESE WOULD SUGGEST THE MCS
SHOULD TAKE THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE... LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA/NORTHERN MO AND INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
SEVERE PROBS ARE IN THE DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK. EVEN IF THIS SOUTHERN
ROUTE OCCURS...IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN END OF THE MCS AND/OR SOME
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...RELATIVELY
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTH OF I-90 FOR 06-18Z
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MCS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM HEAD DOWN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH.
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY
AS THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. THERE
ARE TWO CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH.
1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
PROGGED...DOWN TO 0.5-0.7 INCHES OR 70-90 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALONG
WITH THIS DRY AIR...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE AT THE SURFACE
TO AID IN LIGHT WINDS. MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S
IN SOME OF OUR TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS. AS SUCH...HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST LOWS COLDER...BUT MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
2. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 02.12Z
NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
HOWEVER...THE 02.12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING...PRODUCING MOSTLY SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR AN
UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. PRIOR TO ITS
ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...PERHAPS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SOME...PRIMARILY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN INCREASING MODEL
AGREEMENT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT HIT 70
ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AT OR BELOW 8C WITH PRECIPITATION
LINGERING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
WINDS/GUSTS WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUSTAINED NEAR 10 KTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SLACKENING IN THE GRADIENT LATER ON TUE AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA.
AREAS OF MVFR/VFR CLOUDS ARE LOCATED WEST OF THE LOW...BUT MODEL
TRENDS FAVOR MOVING THIS CLOUD SHIELD EAST...NORTH OF KRST/KLSE.
THUS...ANTICIPATE SKC/SCT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE BETTER
PART OF TUE.
LATER TUE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
DRIVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ACROSS IA. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN/JET INTO AND ACROSS AN ACCOMPANYING WEST-EAST
RUNNING SFC BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF IOWA...LIKELY STRONG TO SEVERE AND CONTAINING HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...THE FAVORED SCENARIO WILL KEEP THE BULK OF
THE PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90...HAVING JUST A GLANCING BLOW FOR
KRST/KLSE. CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY STAY VFR FOR THE MOST PART. ITS A
SCENARIO THAT BEARS CLOSE ATTENTION THOUGH...AS ANY JOG NORTH WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE HIGHER STORM THREAT NORTH WITH IT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TRIBUTARIES. THE KICKAPOO RIVER REMAINS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR TRIBUTARY FLOODING WITH VIOLA HEADING TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE AND READSTOWN ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD BUT CRESTING. SOLDIERS
GROVE AND GAYS MILLS DOWNSTREAM COULD GET CLOSE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE AND THEREFORE NEED TO BE WATCHED.
SOME OF THE RUNOFF HAS HIT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH LEVELS NOW
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING NORTH OF LA CROSSE. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS WABASHA MAY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...THUS A
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THERE. MEANWHILE...AT WINONA...CONDITIONS DO
NOT LOOK NEARLY AS FAVORABLE TO HIT FLOOD...THEREFORE THE WATCH WAS
CANCELLED THERE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
MNZ079.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....AJ
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS
EXITED THE DOOR PENINSULA...BUT SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. DESPITE A LACK OF DESTABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM
WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY
FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SINCE TEMPS HAVE
NOT RECOVERED MUCH FROM THE EARLIER RAINS. LOOKING EVEN FURTHER
UPSTREAM...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND SHOWERS IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TIP OF JAMES BAY. RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...WILL END SHOWER CHANCES OVER NE WISCONSIN
AT THIS TIME. BUT FARTHER WEST...THINK SCT TO WIDELY SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE IN THE EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THEN MAY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BEFORE
WRAP AROUND LOW STRATUS FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA DROPS INTO N-C
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE WITH THE
STRATUS AS WELL. THE EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN MUGGY...THEN SHOULD
SEE COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVE WITH THE STRATUS. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE THE LOW STRATUS SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME HELP FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
MORNING UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEN
SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
RETREATS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
SEVERAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND SREF...APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING
FROM SEVERE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
AND BRING PCPN TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE MORE CLOSELY
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH SHOW LESS FEEDBACK...AND FOCUS
THE MCS ACTIVITY OVER IA/N IL...NORTH OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT CHC POPS GOING FOR C/EC WI
LATE TUES NGT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STABILITY INDICES INDICATE
LITTLE THREAT FOR THUNDER.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST GOING FROM WEDS NGT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST IS NOT AS HIGH AS
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE ECMWF GENERATES SOME LIGHT PCPN IN
ASSOCIATION A S/W TROF MOVG THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND ALSO DEVELOPS SOME SCT CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WI ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL HANGING
BACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME CONCERN FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE. AS A
RESULT...LIMITED STORM COVERAGE TO ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST AND
EXCLUDED ANY MENTION OF TSRA IN THE TAFS. THEN THINK WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF DIMINISHING CLOUDS THIS EVENING BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
STRATUS SURGES SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THE CLOUD MASS SHOULD YIELD MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. THOUGH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA CONDITIONS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING...WEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN. WILL LEAVE THAT TO
LATER SHIFTS TO UPDATE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN MN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH
RIDGING IN-BETWEEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN
TROUGHING AND A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN MN UPPER
LOW. THIS DRY SLOT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING HELPED TO CLEAR
SKIES OUT FROM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S / LOW 80S HAS RESULTED IN 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND
NO CIN. THIS INSTABILITY AND LACK OF CAPPING HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF
IN PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TO THE NORTHWEST...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXIST OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN.
925MB TEMPS ARE SIGNIFICANT COLDER TOO UNDER THESE CLOUDS...NOTED BY
10C TEMP AT BIS AT 12Z COMPARED TO 16-20C OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT NEAR ALEXANDRIA
MN.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY ON ITS WEST SIDE LOOKS TO BECOME CENTERED OVER WI.
FIRST...ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND
WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAY HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME STRONGER CELLS TIL ABOUT 5-6 PM WITH
0-6KM SHEAR RUNNING AROUND 30 KT AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT 20-25KT. THEN
AS THAT TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRATUS AND
SHOWERS. COLD FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z.
REGARDING THOSE SHOWERS...MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOUD DEPTHS WOULD
SUPPORT THEM MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD
PICK UP A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...AS 925MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KT.
DAYTIME HEATING PLUS SUBSIDENCE AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WILL HELP CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA
BY MID MORNING. UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES THEN LOOKS
TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WITH
THIS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA DRY. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE WARMER
AIR ADVECT BACK IN WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO MAKE A DECENT JUMP
DURING THE DAY...FROM 10-12C AT 12Z TO AROUND 18C AT 00Z. PLENTY OF
SUN FROM THE MID MORNING ON UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PROGGED TO COME CLOSE TO
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING NUMEROUS SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA SHEARING OUT AND PROVIDING DPVA FORCING TO THIS REGION.
PLENTIFUL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION TOO. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE THE SAME AMOUNT OF
SPREAD HANDLING THIS CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 02.12Z NAM AND 02.09Z SREF STILL SHOW A NORTHERN
TRACK...BASICALLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06-18Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 02.12Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE 02.12Z HIRES-ARW SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.
SINCE THE CONVECTION IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A BOWING
MCS...AIDED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING HIGH CAPE
OUT OF KANSAS...CORFIDI VECTORS AND IN PARTICULAR THE FORWARD
PROPAGATING VECTORS NEED TO BE FOLLOWED. THESE WOULD SUGGEST THE MCS
SHOULD TAKE THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE... LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA/NORTHERN MO AND INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
SEVERE PROBS ARE IN THE DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK. EVEN IF THIS SOUTHERN
ROUTE OCCURS...IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN END OF THE MCS AND/OR SOME
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...RELATIVELY
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTH OF I-90 FOR 06-18Z
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MCS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM HEAD DOWN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH.
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY
AS THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. THERE
ARE TWO CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH.
1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
PROGGED...DOWN TO 0.5-0.7 INCHES OR 70-90 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALONG
WITH THIS DRY AIR...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE AT THE SURFACE
TO AID IN LIGHT WINDS. MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S
IN SOME OF OUR TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS. AS SUCH...HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST LOWS COLDER...BUT MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
2. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 02.12Z
NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
HOWEVER...THE 02.12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING...PRODUCING MOSTLY SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR AN
UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. PRIOR TO ITS
ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...PERHAPS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SOME...PRIMARILY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN INCREASING MODEL
AGREEMENT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT HIT 70
ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AT OR BELOW 8C WITH PRECIPITATION
LINGERING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN. RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING ISOLD/SCT
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY IN DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI THIS
AFTN...KEEPING MAIN SHRA/TS THREAT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94.
OTHERWISE...BROKEN VFR CUMULUS FIELD WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING KRST/KLSE TAF SITES. PLAN ON WEST WINDS SUBSIDING AND
DIMINISHING CUMULUS THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET/LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. MODELS THEN HINT AT VFR/MVFR STRATOCUMULUS SWINGING
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...STAYING JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TRIBUTARIES. THE KICKAPOO RIVER REMAINS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR TRIBUTARY FLOODING WITH VIOLA HEADING TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE AND READSTOWN ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD BUT CRESTING. SOLDIERS
GROVE AND GAYS MILLS DOWNSTREAM COULD GET CLOSE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE AND THEREFORE NEED TO BE WATCHED.
SOME OF THE RUNOFF HAS HIT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH LEVELS NOW
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING NORTH OF LA CROSSE. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS WABASHA MAY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...THUS A
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THERE. MEANWHILE...AT WINONA...CONDITIONS DO
NOT LOOK NEARLY AS FAVORABLE TO HIT FLOOD...THEREFORE THE WATCH WAS
CANCELLED THERE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
MNZ079.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...AJ