Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/01/14
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT SAT MAY 31 2014
...UPDATE FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING MAINLY NIGHT TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM THE BEACHES TO THE VALLEYS FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH BREEZY WINDS AND FAIR SKIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
A WEAK SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS
KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL. MODELS ARE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE WINDS AND THERMAL SUPPORT...DESPITE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HOLDING NEAR YESTERDAYS LEVELS. 3-KM HRRR MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO A TAD WEAKER FOR THIS EVENING. LOCAL ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF AND NEAR
GAVIOTA.
OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE AXIS FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
SLIDES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM IS
STARTING TO PLAY INTO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST KLAX
AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS THINNING AS 1000-500
MB THICKNESS VALUES START TO RISE AS THE WEAK RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO PLAY FOR
SUNDAY BY REDUCING THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND COVERAGE SOMEWHAT
AND INTRODUCING A SLIGHT WARM-UP FOR SUNDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES TO SOUTHWEST OF LOS
ANGELES MOVES NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
INTO TUESDAY. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OUT IN THE DESERT
ON MONDAY AS THE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS DEVELOP AND COMBINE
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE A DRY STANCE WITH THE TROUGH...BUT A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR MONDAY AS
850 MB MIXING RATIO APPROACH 5 G/KG.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
ANOTHER TROUGH QUICKLY DIPS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH...REINFORCING ONSHORE FLOW AND ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED
DEEPER MARINE LAYER. A COOLING TREND LOOKS TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
CLIMB FOR LATE WEEK.
A FLAT RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR LATE WEEK AND SHOULD PROVIDE A
WARMING TREND WITH A THINNING MARINE LAYER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. A
JUNE GLOOM PATTERN COULD SET-UP ALONG THE COAST WITH ANY MARINE
LAYER CLOUDINESS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE
MARINE LAYER...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE WARM. LOCAL STUDIES SUGGEST
100 PLUS DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS...SUCH AS WOODLAND
HILLS...OJAI...AND SANTA CLARITA. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL IN
PLAY...THE PACKAGE DOES NOT TAKE SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE STANCE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...31/2355Z...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS THRU SUN AT
KPRB...KSBA...KBUR...KVNY...KPMD AND KWJF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ALTHO THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. FOR KSBP AND
KSMX...THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO LATER TONIGHT THEN
CLEAR TO VFR LATE SUN MORNING. FOR KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB...THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THRU LATER SUN MORNING. THERE IS A 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT DEVELOP OR BE SCATTERED MOST
OF THE TIME DURING THE PERIOD AT THESE AIRFIELDS. OTHERWISE...ANY
LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP WILL CLEAR TO VFR FOR LATE SUN MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF WILL LINGER THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY SUN
AFTERNOON.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP BY 09Z AND PERSIST THRU 17Z SUN MORNING. THERE IS A 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT DEVELOP OR BE SCATTERED MOST
OF THE TIME DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT
DEVELOP WILL CLEAR TO VFR FOR LATE SUN MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU SUN AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 10-20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...31/200 PM.
A STABLE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
A SURFACE HIGH AROUND 1033 MB ABOUT 700 NM WEST OF THE OREGON
COAST AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE S OF LAS VEGAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH LOCALLY MODERATE
NW TO WEST WINDS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA BETWEEN SANTA ROSA ISLAND AND PT
CONCEPTION.
FOR INNER WATERS...LOW END SCA WINDS WILL AFFECT PZZ645 THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...ALONG WITH SHORT PERIOD SEAS 5 TO 7
FT AT 8 SECONDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEARSHORE. A WEAK CATALINA
EDDY WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...CAUSING SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
RESULT IN ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET AT 7 SECONDS ACROSS
PZZ650/655.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
316 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THEN
THE AFTERNOONS WILL HAVE FAIR SKIES FOR INLAND AREAS AND SOME
CLEARING AT THE COAST. THERE WILL BE BREEZY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FROM A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA...AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER PLAINS STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
A WIND ADVISORY WAS ADDED FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AS NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTENING LATER TONIGHT. GRADIENTS ACROSS
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON ARE TIGHTENING...WITH KSBA-
KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT -2.2 MB THIS AFTERNOON. IF
SURFACE TRENDS CONTINUE...A KSBA-KSMX SURFACE GRADIENT AROUND 4
MB CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN
GAVIOTA AND GOLETA...AND 3-KM HRRR SOLUTIONS INDICATE 20 TO 30
KNOTS AT THE SURFACE BETWEEN GOLETA AND GAVIOTA.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE AREA.
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN AND INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST COOLING OCCURRING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
NO RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE TROUGH...BUT
THERE IS A TIME PERIOD ON MONDAY WHERE THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE SOME
CLOUDINESS AS A DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. IF THE MODELS
CHANGE COURSE SOMEWHAT AND PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE...THERE COULD BE
A THREAT OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK KEEPING A
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
SOME DEEPENING OFF THE MARINE AND A COOLING TREND COULD DEVELOP
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...30/1840Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS OVERALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY MORE
WIDESPREAD MARINE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH IFR CONDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SITES AND IFR/LOW
MVFR FOR KOXR AND THE L.A. COAST SITES. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/LOW IFR CONDS WILL AFFECT KSBA...KBUR AND
KVNY AFTER 12Z SAT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MARINE LAYER
ONSET AND HEIGHT OF CIGS/VSBY.
KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. LOW MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY 09Z BUT TIMING MAY DIFFER BY UP TO 2 HRS FROM
TAF TIME. 30% CHANCE CIGS WILL DIP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 12Z SAT.
&&
.MARINE...30/830 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS AT SCA LEVEL OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE
WATERS BETWEEN SAN NICOLAS ISLAND AND SANTA ROSA ISLAND SO AN
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR PZZ676 THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...IN ADDITION TO
PZZ670/673. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL WAIT FOR 12Z MODEL RUNS AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...MODERATE WINDS 10 TO
20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS UP
TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL EACH
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR PZZ650/655.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1109 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
REINITIALIZED GRIDS WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS
TO BETTER REFLECT RADAR OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS GRADUALLY
FADING AWAY AS OF 09Z...AND WITH LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING LITTLE
PRECIP EAST OF I-25 THROUGH MID MORNING...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST WITH THE NEW SET OF GRIDS. STILL SOME ISOLATED -SHRA OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND WITH PRECIP MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM NRN NM/WRN CO...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING.
TODAY...MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER COLORADO
TODAY...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS WELL. WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING FAIRLY STRONG UPWARD
MOTION. OVERALL...FACTORS LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR CONVECTION MOST
AREAS...AND EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS
PEAK LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE OCCURS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY...THOUGH A COUPLE LOW END PULSE SEVERE HAILERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BURN
SCARS...ESPECIALLY BLACK FOREST/WALDO CANYON SCARS WHERE MOISTURE IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK TODAY...WITH
READINGS SEVERAL DEGF COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...WITH UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY...SUSPECT
MAIN BODY OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE LATE
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO KS OVERNIGHT. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
FEW -SHRA TO LINGER OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN PAST
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH INTENSITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...
FAIRLY ACTIVE LATE SPRING PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...AS A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.
SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET IN THE SHORT-MEDIUM RANGE FOR SVR
WX. DEEP SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE
INTER-MTN REGION INTO THE ROCKIES. SRLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
DECENT MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
DRYING MAY OCCUR BY AFTERNOON OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BEST BET
FOR SVR WILL BE E OF A LINE FROM KLHX TO KIM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVE. BULK SHEAR OF 40+ KTS...AND CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. GENERALLY HIGH LCLS WILL MINIMIZE THE TORNADO
THREAT. STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER THE HYR TRRN...THEN MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...EXITING INTO KS BY LATE EVE.
SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY ON THE SVR THREAT. DRY W-SW FLOW WILL BE
INCREASING AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...AND A DRY
LINE WILL MIX EWD IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN E OF THE CWA...BUT THE KS BORDER
COUNTIES COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AN EARLY STORM. SUN SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT AS HIGH AS THE
MID 90S OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
MON-WED...LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY AS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE W-
SW. IT WILL BE PRETTY WARM OVER THE PLAINS...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NR 90 EACH DAY. COULD SEE SOME MARGINAL FIRE WX THREAT
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO 40-50
KTS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON LOCAL FUEL
STATUS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BY THU-FRI...SHOULD SEE TEMPS MODERATE AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CO. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST GFS SHOWS
PRETTY DEEP MOISTURE BACKING INTO THE SRN FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING A RETURN THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
STRONG STORMS. HAVE BOOSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS LATTER PERIOD
TO ACCOUNT FOR GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH QPF.
ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
GENERALLY VFR AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BETTER
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD AND MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION THAN YESTERDAY. POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY AT KCOS. PRIMARY WINDOW OF CONVECTION WILL
RUN 18Z-02Z. OTHER CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WILL INCLUDE
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH...AND LOCAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG
AND NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER IN THE AREA OF RICHEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STRONGEST WIND SHEAR.
ON SATURDAY...DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HOWEVER...STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SUCH
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...PIKES
PEAK REGION AND KANSAS BORDER AREAS...INITIALIZING 18Z-20Z.
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER SATURDAY AS
WIND SHEAR INCREASES. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
340 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS GRADUALLY
FADING AWAY AS OF 09Z...AND WITH LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING LITTLE
PRECIP EAST OF I-25 THROUGH MID MORNING...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST WITH THE NEW SET OF GRIDS. STILL SOME ISOLATED -SHRA OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND WITH PRECIP MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM NRN NM/WRN CO...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING.
TODAY...MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER COLORADO
TODAY...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS WELL. WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING FAIRLY STRONG UPWARD
MOTION. OVERALL...FACTORS LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR CONVECTION MOST
AREAS...AND EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS
PEAK LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE OCCURS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY...THOUGH A COUPLE LOW END PULSE SEVERE HAILERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BURN
SCARS...ESPECIALLY BLACK FOREST/WALDO CANYON SCARS WHERE MOISTURE IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK TODAY...WITH
READINGS SEVERAL DEGF COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...WITH UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY...SUSPECT
MAIN BODY OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE LATE
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO KS OVERNIGHT. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
FEW -SHRA TO LINGER OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN PAST
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH INTENSITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...
FAIRLY ACTIVE LATE SPRING PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...AS A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.
SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET IN THE SHORT-MEDIUM RANGE FOR SVR
WX. DEEP SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE
INTER-MTN REGION INTO THE ROCKIES. SRLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
DECENT MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
DRYING MAY OCCUR BY AFTERNOON OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BEST BET
FOR SVR WILL BE E OF A LINE FROM KLHX TO KIM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVE. BULK SHEAR OF 40+ KTS...AND CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. GENERALLY HIGH LCLS WILL MINIMIZE THE TORNADO
THREAT. STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER THE HYR TRRN...THEN MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...EXITING INTO KS BY LATE EVE.
SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY ON THE SVR THREAT. DRY W-SW FLOW WILL BE
INCREASING AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...AND A DRY
LINE WILL MIX EWD IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN E OF THE CWA...BUT THE KS BORDER
COUNTIES COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AN EARLY STORM. SUN SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT AS HIGH AS THE
MID 90S OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
MON-WED...LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY AS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE W-
SW. IT WILL BE PRETTY WARM OVER THE PLAINS...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NR 90 EACH DAY. COULD SEE SOME MARGINAL FIRE WX THREAT
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO 40-50
KTS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON LOCAL FUEL
STATUS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BY THU-FRI...SHOULD SEE TEMPS MODERATE AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CO. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST GFS SHOWS
PRETTY DEEP MOISTURE BACKING INTO THE SRN FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING A RETURN THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
STRONG STORMS. HAVE BOOSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS LATTER PERIOD
TO ACCOUNT FOR GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH QPF.
ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL COMBINE WITH WIDESPREAD
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS 17Z- 18Z...SPREADING INTO THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...PALMER DIVIDE AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR 17Z-20Z.
WILL CARRY VCTS ALL TERMINALS FROM 17Z ONWARD THROUGH ABOUT
01Z...WITH STORMS THEN MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES IN THE
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORMS TODAY.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
333 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COOL WEATHER AND THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE
OF WET-WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /A FEW OF WHICH THAT ARE NOTABLY STRONG
WITHIN THE LATEST RADAR SCANS/ BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO S
NEW ENGLAND AS THE PARENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT SWEEP
INTO THE REGION.
ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD A COMBINATION OF MODEST STRAIGHT-LINE
BULK SHEAR AND MEAGER INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 250-500 J/KG PER
SPC MESOANALYSIS /SKINNY CAPES PER RAP-MODEL SOUNDINGS/. AS SUCH
AND TO NO SURPRISE...OBSERVING SMALL-CORES WITH STORMS WHICH DO
SUSTAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE THREAT
OF SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS AND COLD-
POOL ALOFT...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH DRY LOW-LEVELS AND
INVERTED-V BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILES.
THUS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH THE FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING...TO WHICH SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY CONTAIN THE THREATS OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A LINE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. FIGURE THIS BE THE
CASE AS THE COLD FRONT CLASHES WITH THE SEA-BREEZE GENERATING A
REGION OF LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE. NEED TO ALSO MONITOR FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF THREATS ALONG THE N- AND W-FACING SLOPES OF HIGH
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A THREAT THOUGH A LOW ONE TO SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
BOUNDARY-LAYER WHICH AS DESTABILIZED ALLOWING FOR STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVOKING BRISK E-FLOW TO THE REAR OF AN
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FROM THE E /DISCERNED VIA LATEST OBS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE/.
CONTINUE TO TREND WITH HRRR- AND WRF-MODEL SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH
THE LATEST RAP.
TONIGHT...
RAINS LINGER ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS OFFSHORE. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH CONCLUSION OF BUOYANCY WITH
PEAK-HEATING. N-WINDS PREVAILING BEHIND WHICH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
BUILDS SOUTHWARD. YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES FROM THE NE AND INVOKES LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
ASCENT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. RENEWANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS E NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING W
TOWARDS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BENEATH WHICH BRISK N-WINDS PREVAIL. WILL
BE A COOL AND DAMP NIGHT. EXPECTING LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 40S. MAY
HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLIER RAINS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES W INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. SINKING DRIER AIR BUILDS REARWARD ACTING TO
SUPPRESS ACTIVING E TO W.
DO NOT BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD WILL BE ALLOWED TO DESTABILIZE.
FEEL THE WAVE WILL BE W OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH THE LATER-HALF
OF THE DAY DRY /EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE E-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH OROGRAPHIC CONVERGENCE/. THUS NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
ONSHORE FLOW BENEATH H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND +4C...GOING TO BE A
CHILLY DAY. WITH THE LATE-MAY SUN BREAKING OUT DURING THE LATER-HALF
OF THE DAY...WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE E-COAST. RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY
TO PREVAIL ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN
BY SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS FORECASTING WOULD
SUGGEST. LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOW-40S. MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND WARMING TREND SUN AND MON
* SHOWERS AT TIMES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
* TEMPS NEXT WEEK AT OR WARMER THAN NORMAL
OVERVIEW... BOTH 00Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLES IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THRU NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE.
RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO AND QUEBEC 12Z SUN SLIDES EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THRU
MON. THIS PROVIDES DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. BY 12Z
TUE ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MEAN LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINNING TO DRIFT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER
WITH NEXT UPSTREAM MEAN TROUGH AXIS JUST APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES...DRY WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO MUCH OF TUE. 12Z DETERMINISTIC
RUNS ARE MORE BULLISH/FASTER WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOULD VERIFY BETTER. A MODEL BLEND DEPICTS
THIS NICELY SO WILL FOLLOW ACCORDINGLY.
BY WED AND THU OF NEXT WEEK MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE
REGION YIELDING A HIGH RISK OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS.
AS FOR THE RISK OF STRONG CONVECTION...THE GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATING
LITTLE IF ANY CAPE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH BEST INSTABILITY WEST
ACROSS NY/PA AND NJ. HENCE WARM SECTOR REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE CAN/T RULE OUT TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF WARM FRONT.
BY LATE NEXT WEEK MEAN TROUGH BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND EJECTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW ENGLAND. THUS SOME IMPROVEMENT/ DRYING TREND IS
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
DAILY DETAILS...
SUNDAY...
REAL NICE DAY WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS. CHILLY TO START THE DAY /40S/ BUT STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE
WILL MODIFY THE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S. COOLER
AT THE COAST GIVEN AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.
MONDAY...
HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH SW FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION YIELDING HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S EXCEPT
COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN WIND TRAJECTORY OFF THE COOLER
OCEAN WATERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXITS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRACKS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO NEW ENGLAND. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DEEP LAYER RIDGING MAY LINGER
LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO TUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA. HOWEVER BY WED AND THU ENSEMBLES AGREE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA...THUS HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS
/ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING/ WILL BE WED AND THU. AS
FOR TEMPS...GIVEN ALL MODEL DATASETS SUGGEST TRUE WARM SECTOR
REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF NEW ENGLAND...COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND WARMEST IN THE CT RVR VLY. IN FACT MODELS HINTING A
POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WED/THU POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST MA. THUS COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE AND MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL NOT TRY TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS AND JUST KEEP AN EYE
ON LATER MODEL RUNS.
FRIDAY...
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND EJECTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE RISK OF
SHOWERS...HENCE DRYING TREND POSSIBLE HERE ALONG WITH TEMPS AT LEAST
SEASONABLY WARM.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /INTO SUNDAY MORNING/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MAKE FOR TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL PREVAIL WITH VCTS FOR INTERIOR
TERMINALS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. ALL OTHER TERMINALS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SEA-BREEZE WITH BRISK EASTERLY FLOW.
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WIDELY SCT
SHRA LINGER INTO SATURDAY...SWEEPING E TO W DURING THE EARLY-HALF
OF THE DAY. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF SATURDAY.
VFR UNDER BREEZY NE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRES. DENSE IFR-LIFR FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WILL KEEP TSRA OUT OF THE
TAF WITH ONSHORE E-WINDS. SHRA MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED...YET
EXACTING TIMING OF IMPACTS WILL BE DEALT WITH THROUGH AMENDMENTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY/MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY WEATHER. SEABREEZES
SUN AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT LIKELY
LOWERING TO MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /INTO SUNDAY MORNING/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
E/SE FLOW PREVAILING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
SWEEP INTO THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE WATERS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS BACK OUT OF THE NE AND INCREASE
TOWARDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE HAVE RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRES
OVER THE WATERS. LITTLE IF ANY WIND WAVES ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY AND
DRY WEATHER. ONLY POSSIBLE ISSUE WILL BE LEFTOVER 4-6 FT EASTERLY
SWELLS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WATERS OF NANTUCKET.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND YIELDING SW WINDS. LEFTOVER EAST SWELLS 3-6 FT MAY
PERSIST OVER EASTERN OUTER OCEAN WATERS.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S/SE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH
AN INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1004 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. COOL WEATHER AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
LINGER ON SATURDAY...THEN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY PRIOR TO A RENEWED THREAT OF WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
WILL DO THE BEST POSSIBLE TO CONVEY FORECAST ANALYSIS/THINKING
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE CONCERNING POTENTIAL THREATS.
FIRST IMPULSE PRESENTLY SWEEPING OFFSHORE BEHIND WHICH SINKING AIR
IS PREVAILING ACTING TO ERODE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION AROUND H7 AS DISCERNED PER 12Z SOUNDINGS. EXPECT A LULL
IN ACTIVITY TOWARDS MIDDAY UNDER CLEARING CONDITIONS. BOUNDARY-
LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL PROCEED ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN. AN ENVIRONMENT TOWARDS SEA-
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO GENERATE.
SECOND IMPULSE /OUR WEATHER-MAKER FOR TODAY/ PUSHING INTO N NEW
ENGLAND COLLOCATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
SWEEP S ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD BE CONVECTIVELY
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF
WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
CONSIDERING THE FOLLOWING: EXPECTING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
WHICH 0-6 KM NW-SE STRAIGHT-LINE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS PREVAILS.
0-6 KM MEAN WIND IS ROUGHLY AROUND 20 MPH WITH CORFIDI VECTORS
AROUND 10 MPH /STRONGER THAN FORECASTED YESTERDAY/. COLDER AIR
BUILDING S WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C WILL ACT TO STEEPEN
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MOIST-ADIABATIC WHILE RESULTING IN LOWER
FREEZING-LEVEL HEIGHTS DOWN TO 7 KFT.
TAKING THESE POINTS TOGETHER...INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL WITH
VERY THIN CAPE PROFILES /THOUGH THRU BETTER ICE-GROWTH REGIONS/.
HIGHEST VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG. ALONG WITH SHEAR...UPDRAFTS MAY
SUSTAIN FOR A TIME. BUT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL LIFT PARENT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...EXPECTING STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
SO EXPECTING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE REGION AROUND 4 PM. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN THREATS OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
/LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LEND TO INVERTED-V BOUNDARY-LAYER
PROFILES/. WILL PREVAIL THESE THREATS IN THE GOING FORECAST WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE /SPC HAS US IN A SEE-TEXT WITH THEIR DAY-1
OUTLOOK/.
WILL SEE POTENTIAL STRENGTHENING OF WEATHER ELEMENTS ALONG THE N-
AND W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ALONG THE ANTICIPATED SEA-
BREEZE AS IT CLASHES WITH THE COLD FRONT /ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/.
THOUGH PWATS UP TO 1-INCH...THE STRONGER MEAN-WIND AND CORFIDI
VECTOR MOTIONS LEND TO LESSER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS FLOODING THREATS.
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.
HAVE TRENDED WITH HRRR- AND WRF-MODEL SOLUTIONS. FEEL THE MESO-NAM
IS NOT DOING TOO BAD AS WELL ALONG WITH THE RAP. THERE IS STILL A
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO SPECIFIC OUTCOMES THIS AFTERNOON. AM
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED OVER THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ALONG WITH THE
SINKING MOTIONS PREVAILING AT THIS TIME. WHETHER ACTIVITY MAY BE
MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST IS SOMETHING WORTH
CONSIDERING AND MONITORING. STILL...FORCING SHOULD BE APPARENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ON TRACK. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET ABOVE
50-DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP TO THE POINT OF RAIN. HIGHS GETTING UP INTO
THE UPPER-60S WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LIKELY OVER THE 70-DEGREE
MARK. COOLER ALONG THE SHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND OVERCAST
SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS.
SATURDAY...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE COLD POOL ALOFT STICKS
AROUND...MODELS ARENT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY ON
SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND WARMER SUN AND MON
* SHOWERS AT TIMES TUE INTO THU WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION
OF A WARM FRONT TOWARD MIDWEEK WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF WET
WEATHER AS WELL AS THE TEMP FORECAST. CLOSED LOW EAST OF NEW ENG
GRADUALLY HEADS FURTHER OUT TO SEA WHICH ALLOWS A PIECE OF MIDWEST
RIDGE TO BUILD INTO NEW ENG SUN AND MON WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. THEN THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUE AND
ESPECIALLY WED/THU AS NEXT TROF SWINGS EAST FROM THE GT LAKES WHICH
WILL BRING INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS AS A WARM
FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR NEW ENG. THE EXACT POSITION OF
THIS FRONT WILL DETERMINE TEMPS AND POPS WED/THU.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS SAT
NIGHT WITH A WARMING TREND SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW AND MID
70S...BUT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL KEEP IT COOLER NEAR THE COAST.
MONDAY...
HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH SW FLOW BRINGING WARMER
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S IN THE CT
VALLEY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO W ZONES OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
INCREASING THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS AS MID LEVEL TROF
AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GOOD PORTION OF
SNE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF MAY HOLD ON TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
TUE WITH BEST CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY FORECAST
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND WILL HINGE ON POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMP FORECAST UNCERTAIN WED/THU SO RELIED ON A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
POTENTIAL FOR COOLER THAN FORECAST IF FRONT REMAINS S OF NEW ENG.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA FROM NW
TO SE BEGINNING MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPO
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCT -SHRA AND FG.
SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT SCT
-SHRA/LOCAL MVFR ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING OF -SHRA/TSRA.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEABREEZES SUN
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT AREAS OF MVFR
IN SCT SHOWERS IN THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE MOST PART. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE WATERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN
OCEAN STORM WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT OVER OUTER SE WATERS SAT NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING
WIND SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT
OVER OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT WITH E SWELL PERSISTING SUN.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BECOMING SW LESS THAN 20 KT.
LEFTOVER E SWELL NEAR 5 FT MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S/SE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1055 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH 1.88" PRECIP
WATER. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS FORMED DUE TO RAPID
MORNING HEATING OF THE LAND AND LIGHT S/SE ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE SEA BREEZE HAS QUICKLY BECOME ACTIVE WITH
SHOWERS SOME OF WHICH WILL DEVELOP INTO LIGHTNING STORMS SOON. THIS
EARLY CONVECTION WILL GIVE THE SEA BREEZE AN EXTRA PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR. SO AGREE WITH THE 3KM HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF MESOSCALE
MODEL THAT THE COLLISION WILL OCCUR WEST OF ORLANDO EARLY IN THE
EVE.
STRONG HEATING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND COOL TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND POINTS WEST.
COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE COLLISIONS OCCUR
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOWS AND SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. STEERING
FLOW REMAINS WEAK SO STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE
NORTH AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT SOME STORMS WILL
ALSO BE DRIVEN BY PROPAGATION AND TRANSLATE SOMEWHAT FASTER.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS AFTN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CURRENT
TEMPO GROUPS FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 19Z LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2
FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 88 71 88 72 / 30 10 30 10
MCO 89 71 90 71 / 50 20 50 20
MLB 86 71 88 73 / 30 10 30 10
VRB 86 70 88 72 / 30 20 30 10
LEE 90 72 90 72 / 60 20 50 20
SFB 91 72 91 72 / 50 20 40 20
ORL 90 73 90 73 / 50 20 50 20
FPR 86 70 88 72 / 30 20 40 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
KELLY/BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1035 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PREVENTING RAINFALL OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DIFFICULT TO FIND THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
DRIFTING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING BUT IT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN
THE CSRA...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE POOLING. RADAR SHOWING SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT
EXPECT THE TREND IN COVERAGE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST.
DESPITE SOME CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE
DRIER AIR HAS BUILT IN TO THE AREA...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHICH WILL IMPACT LOW
TEMPERATURES DUE TO LESS THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE CSRA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW DRYING AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE
MODELS INDICATE H5 HEIGHTS RISING SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S
GREATER THAN ZERO SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS HAVE MID-LEVEL
CAPPING. ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST. IT WILL FEEL RELATIVELY COOL
FOR EARLY JUNE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NAM AND GFS MOS DISPLAY DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LEE-SIDE TROUGHING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY. ALOFT...THE MODELS HAVE WEAK RIDGING. THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A FRONT NEAR THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SUPPORTING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BACK DOOR FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO THE CSRA LATE THIS EVENING.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IN PLACE WITH MVFR/VFR
CIGS. SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING CIGS
MAY BE SLOWER TO LIFT OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WILL
TEND TO DELAY CIG IMPROVEMENT UNTIL AROUND 08Z-10Z SUNDAY. SOME
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING EARLY MORNING FOG
TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE
NORTH. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1017 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PREVENTING RAINFALL OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DIFFICULT TO FIND THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
DRIFTING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING BUT IT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN
THE CSRA...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE POOLING. RADAR SHOWING SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT
EXPECT THE TREND IN COVERAGE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST.
DESPITE SOME CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE
DRIER AIR HAS BUILT IN TO THE AREA...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHICH WILL IMPACT LOW
TEMPERATURES DUE TO LESS THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE CSRA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW DRYING AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE
MODELS INDICATE H5 HEIGHTS RISING SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S
GREATER THAN ZERO SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS HAVE MID-LEVEL
CAPPING. ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST. IT WILL FEEL RELATIVELY COOL
FOR EARLY JUNE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NAM AND GFS MOS DISPLAY DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LEE-SIDE TROUGHING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY. ALOFT...THE MODELS HAVE WEAK RIDGING. THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A FRONT NEAR THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SUPPORTING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BACK DOOR FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO THE CSRA LATE THIS EVENING.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IN PLACE WITH MVFR/VFR
CIGS. SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING CIGS
MAY BE SLOWER TO LIFT OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WILL
TEND TO DELAY CIG IMPROVEMENT UNTIL AROUND 08Z-10Z SUNDAY. SOME
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
216 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
A WEAK RIDGE. THE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT IN
THIS RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED H5
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COLD AROUND -10 C. AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND DIFFERENCES IN HEATING BECAUSE OF
CLOUD-COVER GRADIENTS PLUS THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL HELP
CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDINESS GRADIENT IN THE CSRA CAUSED
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR BECAUSE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SO
EXPECT LIMITED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ALSO...CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUPPORT JUST SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE HRRR DISPLAYS THE GREATEST
COVERAGE IN THE CSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BECAUSE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.8
OF AN INCH AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR BECAUSE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS HOLDS ON TO 1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NAM DRIES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER. FRONTAL
FORCING WITH POSSIBLE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 SOUTH AND WEST OF I-26.
CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD WITH 30-40 POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS...20 OR LESS NORTH. SPC HAS THIS REGION IN GENERAL
THUNDER SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT PERSISTING AND RESULTING SLOW MOVING
CELLS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD BEFORE FLATTENING OUT IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF TROFS
SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US STARTING MID WEEK. MAINLY DRY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER RIDGE. WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INCREASING POPS BY MID WEEK. RIBBON OF
GULF MOISTURE ON WEST SIDE OF HIGH JUST OFF SE COAST WILL AID IN
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS HINT AT
WEAKENING FRONT SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROBABLY LIMITED
AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE
FORECAST AREA STAYS IN LIGHT UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS MAIN TROF ENERGY STAYS WELL NORTH. SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD...WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SECOND HALF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND DIFFERENCES IN HEATING BECAUSE OF CLOUD-COVER GRADIENTS
PLUS RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL HELP CAUSE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDINESS GRADIENT IN THE CSRA CAUSED THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR
SUPPORTS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN THE CSRA 20 TO 22Z.
THE CHANCE OF IMPACTS MAY BE GREATEST AT AGS AND DNL DURING THAT
TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS HIGH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.8 OF AN INCH. VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY LEAD TO VERY STRONG WINDS NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST OF NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE A PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE MORNING SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF A STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE DURING MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
A WEAK RIDGE. THE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT IN
THIS RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED H5
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COLD AROUND -10 C. AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND DIFFERENCES IN HEATING BECAUSE OF
CLOUD-COVER GRADIENTS PLUS THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LEAD
TO THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDINESS GRADIENT IN THE CSRA THIS MORNING MAY
BE FOCUS FOR THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR BECAUSE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SO
EXPECT LIMITED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUPPORT SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE CAE AND SPC WRF SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND 400 PM WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
TONIGHT MAINLY BETWEEN 700 PM AND 1000 PM. THE HRRR DISPLAYS
ISOLATED COVERAGE BEGINNING AROUND 300 PM WITH VERY LITTLE
COVERAGE THROUGH 700 PM.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BECAUSE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.8
OF AN INCH AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR BECAUSE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDINESS AND MORE HEATING CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS HOLDS ON TO 1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NAM DRIES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER. FRONTAL
FORCING WITH POSSIBLE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 SOUTH AND WEST OF I-26.
CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD WITH 30-40 POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS...20 OR LESS NORTH. SPC HAS THIS REGION IN GENERAL
THUNDER SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT PERSISTING AND RESULTING SLOW MOVING
CELLS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD BEFORE FLATTENING OUT IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF TROFS
SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US STARTING MID WEEK. MAINLY DRY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER RIDGE. WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INCREASING POPS BY MID WEEK. RIBBON OF
GULF MOISTURE ON WEST SIDE OF HIGH JUST OFF SE COAST WILL AID IN
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS HINT AT
WEAKENING FRONT SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROBABLY LIMITED
AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE
FORECAST AREA STAYS IN LIGHT UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS MAIN TROF ENERGY STAYS WELL NORTH. SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD...WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SECOND HALF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS
HELPED SUPPORT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. HEATING SHOULD
HELP RAISE CEILINGS...BUT CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
AND DIFFERENCES IN HEATING BECAUSE OF CLOUD-COVER GRADIENTS PLUS
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDINESS
GRADIENT IN THE CSRA THIS MORNING MAY BE FOCUS FOR THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT BECAUSE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP
LIMIT COVERAGE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THE CAE AND SPC WRF SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
AROUND 400 PM WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE TONIGHT MAINLY BETWEEN
700 PM AND 1000 PM. THE HRRR DISPLAYS ISOLATED COVERAGE BEGINNING
AROUND 300 PM WITH VERY LITTLE COVERAGE THROUGH 700 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT AGS
AND DNL BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OCCURRING ALONG THE
CLOUD GRADIENT THIS MORNING NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE HIGH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.8 OF AN INCH.
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY IF THERE
ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS MAY LEAD TO VERY STRONG WINDS
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF A STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE DURING MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
87
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1118 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
A WEAK RIDGE. THE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT IN
THIS RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED H5
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COLD AROUND -10 C. AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND DIFFERENCES IN HEATING BECAUSE OF
CLOUD-COVER GRADIENTS PLUS THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LEAD
TO THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDINESS GRADIENT IN THE CSRA THIS MORNING MAY
BE FOCUS FOR THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR BECAUSE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SO
EXPECT LIMITED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUPPORT SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE CAE AND SPC WRF SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND 400 PM WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
TONIGHT MAINLY BETWEEN 700 PM AND 1000 PM. THE HRRR DISPLAYS
ISOLATED COVERAGE BEGINNING AROUND 300 PM WITH VERY LITTLE
COVERAGE THROUGH 700 PM.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BECAUSE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.8
OF AN INCH AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR BECAUSE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDINESS AND MORE HEATING CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL
STILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 OF AN INCH OR GREATER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. FARTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS AND THE CSRA WHERE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
STRONGEST. THE DRIER AIR ENTERING THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THAT AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW...HOWEVER WITH WEAK
WINDS ALOFT PERSISTING AND RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING CELLS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND STALL AS
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF NC TAKES CONTROL OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP DRIER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO AREAS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRACKS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS
HELPED SUPPORT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. HEATING SHOULD
HELP RAISE CEILINGS...BUT CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
AND DIFFERENCES IN HEATING BECAUSE OF CLOUD-COVER GRADIENTS PLUS
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDINESS
GRADIENT IN THE CSRA THIS MORNING MAY BE FOCUS FOR THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT BECAUSE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP
LIMIT COVERAGE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THE CAE AND SPC WRF SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
AROUND 400 PM WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE TONIGHT MAINLY BETWEEN
700 PM AND 1000 PM. THE HRRR DISPLAYS ISOLATED COVERAGE BEGINNING
AROUND 300 PM WITH VERY LITTLE COVERAGE THROUGH 700 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT AGS
AND DNL BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OCCURRING ALONG THE
CLOUD GRADIENT THIS MORNING NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE HIGH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.8 OF AN INCH.
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY IF THERE
ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS MAY LEAD TO VERY STRONG WINDS
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF A STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE DURING MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
87
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1039 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
A WEAK RIDGE. THE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT IN
THIS RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED H5
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COLD AROUND -10 C. AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND DIFFERENCES IN HEATING BECAUSE OF
CLOUD-COVER GRADIENTS PLUS THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LEAD
TO THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDINESS GRADIENT IN THE CSRA THIS MORNING MAY
BE FOCUS FOR THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR BECAUSE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SO
EXPECT LIMITED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUPPORT SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE CAE AND SPC WRF SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND 400 PM WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
TONIGHT MAINLY BETWEEN 700 PM AND 1000 PM. THE HRRR DISPLAYS
ISOLATED COVERAGE BEGINNING AROUND 300 PM WITH VERY LITTLE
COVERAGE THROUGH 700 PM.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BECAUSE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.8
OF AN INCH AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR BECAUSE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDINESS AND MORE HEATING CAN OCCUR.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL
STILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5 OF AN INCH OR GREATER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. FARTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS AND THE CSRA WHERE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
STRONGEST. THE DRIER AIR ENTERING THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THAT AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW...HOWEVER WITH WEAK
WINDS ALOFT PERSISTING AND RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING CELLS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND STALL AS
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF NC TAKES CONTROL OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP DRIER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO AREAS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRACKS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS
HELPED SUPPORT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. HEATING SHOULD
HELP RAISE CEILINGS...BUT CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
AND DIFFERENCES IN HEATING BECAUSE OF CLOUD-COVER GRADIENTS PLUS
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDINESS
GRADIENT IN THE CSRA THIS MORNING MAY BE FOCUS FOR THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT BECAUSE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP
LIMIT COVERAGE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THE CAE AND SPC WRF SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
AROUND 400 PM WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE TONIGHT MAINLY BETWEEN
700 PM AND 1000 PM. THE HRRR DISPLAYS ISOLATED COVERAGE BEGINNING
AROUND 300 PM WITH VERY LITTLE COVERAGE THROUGH 700 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT AGS
AND DNL BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OCCURRING ALONG THE
CLOUD GRADIENT THIS MORNING NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE HIGH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.8 OF AN INCH.
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY IF THERE
ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS MAY LEAD TO VERY STRONG WINDS
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF A STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE DURING MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
210 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA SLOWLY MOVING
EAST. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF FEATURE PUSHING INTO IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON. SEEING SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER ROUGHLY BEAR LAKE REGION NORTH ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER
WHERE VIS SAT SHOWS SOME CU DEVELOPMENT. HRRR SHOWING SOME HINTS
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT
REMAINDER OF REGION REMAINS STABLE SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS MODELS MAINTAIN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
ELONGATED TROUGH THROUGH PACNW. DRY NUDGE BEHIND SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN IDAHO EARLY
SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH EARLY MORNING BUT AIR MASS DOES REMAIN UNSTABLE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. BEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SO
CONCENTRATED POPS TO THE NORTH. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY. LEFT POPS IN
PLACE WHERE BEST INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MODELS. FLOW FLATTENS
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THAT TIME BEHIND TROUGH SO
KEPT POPS BELOW CLIMO FOR THOSE PERIODS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
GFS KEEPS GENERAL TROF PATTERN ALOFT OVER EASTERN IDAHO WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH DAILY. EUROPEAN TRANSITIONS TO DRIER
ZONAL FLOW BY LAT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND IS DRIER LATE IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. FOR NOW KEPT IN SOME DAILY SHOWERS WITH SOME
LOWER CHANCES BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY IF THE SUSTAINED MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ON THE GFS VERIFIES. FOR NOW DID NOT ALTER
PREVIOUS GRIDS EXTENSIVELY AND KEPT THE GENERAL TREND OF NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS.
GK
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN EXTENSIVE MIDDLE AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK WAVE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEPT IN VICINITY SHOWERS
AT ALL TAF SITES AT ABOUT THE MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME FRAME. LOW LEVELS
STILL DRY SO NOT SURE IF ANY WILL REACH THE SURFACE. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SHOULD BE MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GK
&&
.HYDROLOGY...HAVE UPDATED RIVER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT INCREASED
FLOWS THROUGH TETON BASIN WITH GAGES AT OR JUST ABOVE BANK FULL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO USED THE OPPORTUNITY TO HIGHLIGHT
INCREASED FLOWS IN TRIBUTARY CREEKS THROUGH TETON VALLEY LEADING
TO TETON RIVER. DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1012 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
257 PM...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND
TIMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES...LAKE COOLING AS
WELL AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK ARE
ALSO FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVELS HAVE MIXED DOWN SOME DRIER
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE AIDED
TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. A LAKE BREEZE IS SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND AND WHILE
TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...THE COOLEST AIR
APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS QUICKLY
JUMP INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE QUAD
CITIES. HIRES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET JUST WEST OF THE CWA.
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH
WILL AID ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE AND EXPECT ANY
CELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH POTENTIALLY SLOW MOVING
STORMS.
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS SOME PRECIP...
OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS ONLY MEDIUM BUT GIVEN
HOW WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED THE PAST 2 DAYS...SEE LITTLE
REASON TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE 90 DEGREE RANGE. SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SOONER AND/OR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...THEN
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 OR 25 MPH RANGE WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY
LAKESHORE COOLING TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE BUT BY AFTERNOON...
WARMER TEMPS SHOULD REACH MUCH OF THE LAKESHORE AREAS.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND THE
NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE FURTHER
ON MONDAY WITH WINDS POTENTIALLY GUSTING INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY MORNING ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S...TEMPS COULD EASILY REACH THE UPPER 80S BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING/COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
HIGHEST POPS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. IF PRECIP WERE TO HOLD OFF LONG
ENOUGH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME AREAS COULD TAG 90.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD REMAIN WINDS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY
COULD BE QUITE WARM...WELL INTO THE 80S AS SUGGESTED BY THE WARMER
GEM/NAM WHICH ALSO SHOW STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS. GFS/ECMWF COOLER
AND SUGGEST GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. OPTED TO GO WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH MID 80S
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAD BEEN PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL IS NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTHEASTERLY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS ONLY
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND EVEN COOLER AT THE LAKE...FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP NOW APPEARS TO BE FROM
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH BUT TIMING/TRACK MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANGES AS THIS TIME APPROACHES. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY SUPPRESS PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION OR
PERHAPS SOUTH OF THE CWA. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
* GUSTY SOUTH WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
DRY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH TONITE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LAKE
BREEZE HAS PICKED UP SPEED ON INLAND TREK WITH EAST WIND PUSHING
ACROSS THE SUBURBS. OVERNIGHT PREVAILING SOUTH WIND TO RE-ESTABLISH
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST.
LOW PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OVER THE PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL KEEP LAKE BREEZE AT BAY AS TEMPS
PUSH WELL INTO THE 80`S AGAIN AND DEWPOINTS CLIMB.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH
SUNDAY. ON GOING TSRA AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
HAVE REMAINED OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN IL TODAY. TSRA CHANCES TO
RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES FURTHER EAST.
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TO ALLOW SCATTERED POPUP/PULSE TSRA TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING.
NEXT ROUND OF TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY TO BE MORE ORGANIZED IN
PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL BY MIDWEEK...PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR PERIODIC TSRA AND KEEP WIND OVER NORTHERN IL
NORTHEAST. DZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN TSRA COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LOW IN TIMING IF
TSRA DOES MOVE ACROSS TERMINAL(S).
* HIGH IN GUSTY SOUTH WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* HIGH IN REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY...MVFR POSS.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY...MVFR POSS.
THURSDAY...SCHC TSRA DURING THE DAY INCREASING TO CHC TSRA
OVERNIGHT. MVFR BECMG VFR.
FRIDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.
DZ
&&
.MARINE...
140 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS OVER THE LAKE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND GENERALLY
ELY-NELY THOUGH TONIGHT...BUT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW WHILE THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH TO THE
DELMARVA AREA WILL TURN WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY MORNING AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS AND STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE TO 30KT...WHILE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE REMAIN A BIT LIGHTER...AT UP TO 25KT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
NEWD INTO CANADA...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WINDS TURNING TO
WLY-NWLY. THE HIGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD FOR LAKE
MICHIGAN.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
910 PM CDT Sat May 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sat May 31 2014
Showers have lingered west of the IL river through 9 pm, and may
clip western Fulton and Knox counties for another hour. Otherwise,
rainfall should be primarily over for the night in central IL. The
slow movement east of surface high pressure tonight will allow
southeast winds to become south tomorrow morning. That shift will
facilitate additional moisture increase farther east into our
forecast area. Instability params will become more favorable for
showers and storms expanding eastward across IL on Sunday,
especially in the afternoon. The latest 4km HRRR is advertising an active
line of convection to our NW later tonight into Sunday morning,
but it is expected to dissipate for a time allowing the atmosphere
to recharge for afternoon redevelopment.
The thick high cloud cover this evening is showing steady drift
to the NE in the SW upper flow, so by midnight mainly thin cloud
cover should remain the rest of the night. Steady southeast winds
should help lows remain in the 60s across the board, with the
coldest temps toward Danville and warmest from Rushville to
Jacksonville. Fog is not expected to be a problem overnight, with
dewpoint spreads remain at 7F or greater through the night.
Updated the weather, PoP and Sky grids, but the remainder of the
forecast looked fine. Updated info will be available shortly.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 657 PM CDT Sat May 31 2014
A cirrus dense overcast from convection across our W counties will
drift across PIA/SPI/DEC for the first half of this evening. All
precip should remain west of the terminal sites this eve, with all
precip in central IL ending by midnight. A major dewpoint gradient
still resides from W to E across IL. Jacksonville dewpoint was 70F
at 6 pm while northeast areas had dewpoints in the upper 40s,
which is indicative of the dry low level air over the eastern
terminals under high pressure. Nearly no diurnal cumulus formed in
that airmass over BMI, CMI and DEC today.
Based on forecast lows and sounding profiles, it does not appear
that fog will be much of a problem tonight, even toward SPI where
dewpoints are in the mid 60s.
The track of showers and storms tomorrow is expected to gradually
shift from west to east. All terminal sites will be under the
threat of thunderstorms during the afternoon, with a few storms
possible near SPI by late morning. VCTS was included in all TAFs
for tomorrow afternoon with VFR cloud ceilings arnd 4k FT. Any
thunderstorms over an airport could reduce visibility to MVFR 3SM
for short periods of time.
Winds will remain southeast through the night, and become south
Sunday morning with sustained speeds in the 12-14kt range and
occasional gusts to 20-22kt.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 PM CDT Sat May 31 2014
Models are very similar with the overall upper level pattern in
the short term, but then differ in the extended with timing and
strength of individual short waves moving through the
zonal/southwesterly flow. The models also look good on the surface
with location and timing of some of the surface features. However,
where the models differ is on the timing and location of the qpf
through the period. Though confidence is good with overall pattern
and sfc features through the forecast period, confidence becomes
low when looking at when showers and thunderstorms will occur in
the area...and where. Appears to be some disagreement with this
with surrounding offices as well. So, will try a blend of the
models and work to collaborate with surrounding offices.
Main concerns this forecast will be pcpn chances through the
period, and temp forecast later next week.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday
Thunderstorms are ongoing in southern and southwest IL, so will
have a chance in the extreme southwest parts of the cwa for late
this afternoon. Since tonight will be dry, will cover ongoing
pcpn with late afternoon period in forecast. Dry forecast for
tonight will be only period without some form of pcpn chances
until next weekend. As mid level high pressure continues to shift
southeast, along with the upper level low, southerly flow will
return to the area tomorrow and bring the return of warm, moist
air back into the whole cwa. With thunderstorms occurring in the
moist axis this afternoon, expect something similar tomorrow in
the cwa. So will bring back chance of showers and thunderstorms
for tomorrow across the area. The chance of thunderstorms will
continue tomorrow night, but highest chances will be in the north
and northwest and east. Then as surface high pressure pushes
further east and flow becomes southwesterly, a frontal system will
get close to the area for Monday. This will increase the chance of
pcpn in the area, with likely pops in the northwest half of the
cwa and chance pops elsewhere. The chance of thunderstorms will
continue Mon night and Tue as the front slowly drops into the area
and reaches central IL by Tuesday night. There could be a break in
the pcpn in some of the area Tuesday, but with models differing on
qpf, will keep chance pops over most of the area and have it dry
in the north.
Temps will remain warm through the period as central and southeast
IL will remain in the warm sector through Tuesday. 850mb temps
approach +18-19C, so temps could be much warmer than current
forecast. However, clouds and pcpn could temper that some.
LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday
The front will drop into the area Tue night and then likely remain
in the area through most of next week. This will keep the chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the area for Tue night through
Friday. There will likely be some dry periods in the extended, but
too much uncertainty in the timing of the short waves to try and
put dry periods in the forecast at this time. It does look like
the front will either washout or get far enough south to not
affect the weather in the area by Saturday. So, for now will have
dry weather for Fri night and Sat.
With continue period of clouds and pcpn, and a front somewhere in
the area, believe temps will become cooler in some of the area.
MEX guidance looks reasonable with 70s in the north and lower 80s
in the south, especially Thur through Sat.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH
CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME INFERRED WEAK BOUNDARIES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEW POINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS WITH 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR...AND RAP TRENDS...THE CONVECTION FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH MORE NORTHERN PROGRESS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THUS AREAS
SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KSPI LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS.
AFTER SUNSET...THE REMAINING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY 10-11 PM
ALONG WITH THE REMAINING DIURNAL CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE QUIET AND DRY.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN INITIALLY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY MID DAY.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH SUNSET. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL ALLOW NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MOVING EAST.
IF CORRECT...THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WOULD ARRIVE IN THE AREA VERY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS IT
DISSIPATES. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS COMPLEX WOULD THEN
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT ON...
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. THE GFS KEEPS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
WEIGHING THE STRENGTHS/WEAKNESSES OF THE MODELS AND CONSIDERING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE...THE IDEA OF BRINGING IN A DRYING TREND
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DOES HAVE MERIT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS
EACH DAY. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE SUGGESTS A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH AN EAST/WEST BOUNDARY SETTING UP IN OR CLOSE TO THE
AREA. WILL IT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THE ENTIRE TIME. NO. EACH ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL DICTATE WHERE SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. SO...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ATTEMPTING TO PIN THEM DOWN IS NOT POSSIBLE
WHEN DEALING WITH NONLINEAR PROCESSES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/31 WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA BUT SHOULD BE MORE THAN 10SM AWAY FROM KBRL.
NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z/31 ACROSS
IOWA THAT MIGHT AFFECT KCID.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. BASED ON SATELLITE AND RAP TRENDS...THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS
FORECAST. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED AND PULLED A BIT MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME QUITE ISOLATED BY EARLY
EVENING AND DISSIPATE BY 04Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH JUST A HINT OF DIURNAL CLOUDS STARTING TO DEVELOP
FROM KVYS TO KALO.
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE FAR SOUTH HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR LATE MORNING AND
MID DAY.
THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW WIDESPREAD WILL DIURNAL CONVECTION
BE IN THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BUT INSTINCT TELLS
ME THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON NEEDS TO BE
LOWERED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST WINDS TO THE DVN CWA. A SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHERN MO. DRIER AIR
WAS NOTED IN OUR NE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WHILE IN OUR SW CWA THE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 60S. THIS WAS
HAVING AN IMPACT ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES WHICH AT 2 AM RANGED FROM
56 AT FREEPORT TO 70 IN OUR WESTERN CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR LOOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SW
CWA TODAY.
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL FEED DRIER
EASTERLY WINDS INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF CWA. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUNNY
SKIES AND COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. A DIFFERENT STORY IN OUR
SW HALF WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ALLOWING
FOR SBCAPES TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING SO ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S IS REACHED CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD FORM RAPIDLY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO POP UP BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND I WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND PRECIPITABLE
WATERS OF AROUND 1.50 INCHES THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND
8-10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF HEATING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS IN
OUR SW CWA WILL QUICKLY END BY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S NE TO THE MID 60S SW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
A QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WILL BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT AND THERMAL-MOISTURE FEED PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CWA. DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS OF A NON-SEVERE
NATURE ARE THE MAIN CONCERN...SO THE DAY WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT
BY ANY MEANS.
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN
TO APPEAR AT THIS TIME WITH THE GFS FAVORING A FASTER TROUGH PASSAGE
DURING THE DAYTIME AND THE ECMWF A SLOWER SOLUTION. ITS HARD TO
FIND A GOOD REASON TO FAVOR ONE MODEL VS. THE OTHER...SO WILL NOT
GET TOO SPECIFIC ON THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...CAPE/SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY...IF THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
AS MOIST AS THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE COLD
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY SETTING UP POTENTIAL
MCS ACTIVITY IN OR NEAR THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
GFS TENDS TO KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE CWA WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS IT DOWN IN MISSOURI...WHICH CLIMATOLOGY WOULD TEND TO
FAVOR. AGAIN HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER
THE OTHER SO WILL NOT GET TOO DETAILED IN THE FORECAST. WHEREVER
MCSS FIRE OFF...CAPE/SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST A SEVERE POTENTIAL UNLESS
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN IS TOO MOIST...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE ANOTHER
POINT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/31 WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA BUT SHOULD BE MORE THAN 10SM AWAY FROM KBRL.
NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z/31 ACROSS
IOWA THAT MIGHT AFFECT KCID.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...WOLF
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
952 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECTING SUBSTANTIAL LOW
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME AND BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN VICINITY OF OLD...CLOSED LOW THAT IS
MEANDERING OVER ARKANSAS. ALSO SEEING WEAK CONVECTION FORMING ALONG
NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS AND
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. OVERALL LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
FORCING REMAINS WEAK ACROSS EASTERN PART OF CWA...THUS CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG AND EAST OF KANSAS TURNPIKE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND SUB-SEVERE.
TONIGHT: SOME CONCERN ABOUT CONVECTION FORMING ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT
OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THAT CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED NORTH
AND WEST OF CWA. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL INCREASE
KINEMATIC FORCING THIS EVENING. QUICK PEEK AT NSSL WRF
ENSEMBLE/SSEF HINTING
AT A SMALL QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS KANSAS HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID-EVENING. SOME REFLECTION OF THIS SCENARIO
BEING INDICATED BY HRRR AS WELL...ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. REGARDLESS ALL THESE MESO
MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING...AS FLOW STARTS BACKING AS
STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY: FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS HIGH PLAINS...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO PANHANDLE. INITIAL STORM DEVELOP LIKELY WILL
BE WEST OF CWA WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED...BUT DIABATIC
HEATING ALONG DRYLINE WILL RAMP UP INSTABILITY BY MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...CONFIDENT
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE EXPLODING WEST OF THE CWA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH DRYLINE
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT GIVEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL CONGEAL INTO MCS...AND TRACK
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL 310-315 THETA
GRADIENT...GENERALLY ALONG I-70 AND EASTERN US 50 CORRIDORS. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 1500-2500J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND
35-50KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
MONDAY: LINGERING CONVECTION DEBRIS WILL IMPACT MAINLY EASTERN
PART OF CWA DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND LEFT
OVER MESO BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN MAINLY EAST WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
INCREASE LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES INTO THE 2000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH BULK SHEAR PROFILES AGAIN IN THE 35-50KT RANGE. MID-LEVEL
CAPPING AGAIN MAY BE A DETERRENT TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY: FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO CURRENT THINKING IS WEATHER WILL BE RATHER QUIET ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. FORECAST MODELS AGAIN
INDICATING THAT ANOTHER MCS COULD FORM WESTERN NEBRASKA/EASTERN
WYOMING AND MOVE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRACK APPEARS
FURTHER NORTH...SO MAY JUST BRUSH CWA.
SF
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SEVERAL REINFORCING SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO SUPPRESS SOUTHERN U.S.
RIDGE WITH TIME...THUS AREA LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION. GEFS DEPICTING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF EACH SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE...SO TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STEER MID AND UPPER 60
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN AREAS OF
MVFR WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 4-5SM AND MVFR CIGS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD 12Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND MIX
OUT QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20+ KNOTS BY 15-16Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND DRIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 22-23Z.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 67 88 70 89 / 10 10 40 20
HUTCHINSON 66 89 69 89 / 20 10 50 20
NEWTON 66 87 68 88 / 10 10 50 20
ELDORADO 66 85 68 86 / 10 10 50 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 67 87 70 88 / 10 10 40 20
RUSSELL 67 91 67 88 / 20 40 70 10
GREAT BEND 66 91 67 89 / 20 40 70 10
SALINA 67 91 69 89 / 20 20 70 20
MCPHERSON 67 89 69 89 / 20 20 50 20
COFFEYVILLE 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 30
CHANUTE 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40
IOLA 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40
PARSONS-KPPF 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
951 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECTING SUBSTANTIAL LOW
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME AND BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN VICINITY OF OLD...CLOSED LOW THAT IS
MEANDERING OVER ARKANSAS. ALSO SEEING WEAK CONVECTION FORMING ALONG
NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS AND
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. OVERALL LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
FORCING REMAINS WEAK ACROSS EASTERN PART OF CWA...THUS CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG AND EAST OF KANSAS TURNPIKE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND SUB-SEVERE.
TONIGHT: SOME CONCERN ABOUT CONVECTION FORMING ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT
OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THAT CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED NORTH
AND WEST OF CWA. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL INCREASE
KINEMATIC FORCING THIS EVENING. QUICK PEEK AT NSSL WRF
ENSEMBLE/SSEF HINTING
AT A SMALL QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS KANSAS HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID-EVENING. SOME REFLECTION OF THIS SCENARIO
BEING INDICATED BY HRRR AS WELL...ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. REGARDLESS ALL THESE MESO
MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING...AS FLOW STARTS BACKING AS
STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY: FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS HIGH PLAINS...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO PANHANDLE. INITIAL STORM DEVELOP LIKELY WILL
BE WEST OF CWA WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED...BUT DIABATIC
HEATING ALONG DRYLINE WILL RAMP UP INSTABILITY BY MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...CONFIDENT
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE EXPLODING WEST OF THE CWA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH DRYLINE
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT GIVEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL CONGEAL INTO MCS...AND TRACK
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL 310-315 THETA
GRADIENT...GENERALLY ALONG I-70 AND EASTERN US 50 CORRIDORS. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 1500-2500J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND
35-50KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
MONDAY: LINGERING CONVECTION DEBRIS WILL IMPACT MAINLY EASTERN
PART OF CWA DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND LEFT
OVER MESO BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN MAINLY EAST WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
INCREASE LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES INTO THE 2000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH BULK SHEAR PROFILES AGAIN IN THE 35-50KT RANGE. MID-LEVEL
CAPPING AGAIN MAY BE A DETERRENT TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY: FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO CURRENT THINKING IS WEATHER WILL BE RATHER QUIET ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. FORECAST MODELS AGAIN
INDICATING THAT ANOTHER MCS COULD FORM WESTERN NEBRASKA/EASTERN
WYOMING AND MOVE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRACK APPEARS
FURTHER NORTH...SO MAY JUST BRUSH CWA.
SF
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SEVERAL REINFORCING SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO SUPPRESS SOUTHERN U.S.
RIDGE WITH TIME...THUS AREA LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION. GEFS DEPICTING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF EACH SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE...SO TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STEER MID AND UPPER 60
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN AREAS OF
MVFR WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 4-5SM AND MVFR CIGS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD 12Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND MIX
OUT QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20+ KNOTS BY 15-16Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND DRIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 22-23Z.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 67 88 70 89 / 10 10 40 20
HUTCHINSON 66 89 69 89 / 20 10 50 20
NEWTON 66 87 68 88 / 10 10 50 20
ELDORADO 66 85 68 86 / 10 10 50 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 67 87 70 88 / 10 10 40 20
RUSSELL 67 91 67 88 / 20 40 70 10
GREAT BEND 66 91 67 89 / 20 40 70 10
SALINA 67 91 69 89 / 20 20 70 20
MCPHERSON 67 89 69 89 / 20 20 50 20
COFFEYVILLE 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 30
CHANUTE 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40
IOLA 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40
PARSONS-KPPF 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1145 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 SHOW REX BLOCK PATTERN IN PLACE
OVER CENTRAL US WITH RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UPSTREAM
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CANADA AND ALONG
THE WESTERN US COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE EASTER
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A PLUME
OF HIGH WV IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
ORIGINATING MAINLY FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ACTIVE PATTERN IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE THE SW TRANSLATE
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TRACK WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR LOCATIONS WEST AND NORTH FOR
BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO LINGER AROUND
THE KS/CO STATE LINE WILL BE PRIMARY LOCATION FOR INITIATION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BETTER
LIFT/INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A SHIFT IN FLOW TO WEST-EAST AS
BLOCK FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. NOT A LOT OF CERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW GOOD SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. SHEER
PROFILES GENERALLY WOULDNT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FASTER MOVING COLD POOL DOMINANT CLUSTERS (AS NAM IS
GENERALLY SHOWING) WHICH SHOULD TAKE ON MORE OF A EASTERN MOTION.
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBLY FOR
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...OTHERWISE
IT SEEMS WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
I FELT COMFORTABLE BUMPING UP POPS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NW WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
CONSISTENCY. DUE TO COMPLICATIONS OF SKY/WX CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON
TEMPS AND WIND...SO I LEANED TOWARDS A MEAN BLEND WHICH STILL
REFLECTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SEASONALLY BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS AHEAD FOR THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY...HOWEVER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION...CAP COULD BREAK IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE TROUGH CLIPS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN REGARD TO THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT FUNNELED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PACIFIC AS UPPER LEVEL PROFILES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
AMPLE MOISTURE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN OTHER INSTANCES...THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAP DRY DESERT AIR AND BRING PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF
MIXING TAKES PLACE. JUST LEFT SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT IN MODEL FORECASTS...BUT CONVECTION REALLY
DEPENDS ON WHETHER THE MOIST OR DRY SOLUTIONS PAN OUT FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE PRIME LOCATIONS FOR LIFT OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY AT THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT THE LOWER AND THE MID LEVELS. BEST LOCATION AT
THE MOMENT SHOULD BE EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT TO
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LIFT REMAINS POOR.
TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
BEFORE A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. COOLER
AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 70S...WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST AND EAST.
EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS IS A LITTLE
QUESTIONABLE SO WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD BETWEEN 22Z AND
02Z THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR KMCK BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z TONIGHT.
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TEMPORARILY. THIS IS
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF DUE TO THE DISCRETE LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO PAY ATTENTION TO IF THESE
CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
548 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 SHOW REX BLOCK PATTERN IN PLACE
OVER CENTRAL US WITH RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UPSTREAM
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CANADA AND ALONG
THE WESTERN US COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE EASTER
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A PLUME
OF HIGH WV IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
ORIGINATING MAINLY FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ACTIVE PATTERN IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE THE SW TRANSLATE
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TRACK WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR LOCATIONS WEST AND NORTH FOR
BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO LINGER AROUND
THE KS/CO STATE LINE WILL BE PRIMARY LOCATION FOR INITIATION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BETTER
LIFT/INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A SHIFT IN FLOW TO WEST-EAST AS
BLOCK FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. NOT A LOT OF CERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW GOOD SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. SHEER
PROFILES GENERALLY WOULDNT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FASTER MOVING COLD POOL DOMINANT CLUSTERS (AS NAM IS
GENERALLY SHOWING) WHICH SHOULD TAKE ON MORE OF A EASTERN MOTION.
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBLY FOR
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...OTHERWISE
IT SEEMS WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
I FELT COMFORTABLE BUMPING UP POPS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NW WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
CONSISTENCY. DUE TO COMPLICATIONS OF SKY/WX CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON
TEMPS AND WIND...SO I LEANED TOWARDS A MEAN BLEND WHICH STILL
REFLECTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SEASONALLY BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS AHEAD FOR THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY...HOWEVER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION...CAP COULD BREAK IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE TROUGH CLIPS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN REGARD TO THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT FUNNELED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PACIFIC AS UPPER LEVEL PROFILES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
AMPLE MOISTURE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN OTHER INSTANCES...THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAP DRY DESERT AIR AND BRING PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF
MIXING TAKES PLACE. JUST LEFT SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT IN MODEL FORECASTS...BUT CONVECTION REALLY
DEPENDS ON WHETHER THE MOIST OR DRY SOLUTIONS PAN OUT FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE PRIME LOCATIONS FOR LIFT OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY AT THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT THE LOWER AND THE MID LEVELS. BEST LOCATION AT
THE MOMENT SHOULD BE EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT TO
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LIFT REMAINS POOR.
TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
BEFORE A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. COOLER
AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 70S...WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
12KT AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 20KT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE DELAYED AT BOTH
TERMINALS UNTIL THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ADD MORE THAT VCTS UNTIL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND WE HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON COVERAGE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
249 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 SHOW REX BLOCK PATTERN IN PLACE
OVER CENTRAL US WITH RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UPSTREAM
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CANADA AND ALONG
THE WESTERN US COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE EASTER
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A PLUME
OF HIGH WV IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
ORIGINATING MAINLY FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ACTIVE PATTERN IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE THE SW TRANSLATE
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TRACK WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR LOCATIONS WEST AND NORTH FOR
BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO LINGER AROUND
THE KS/CO STATE LINE WILL BE PRIMARY LOCATION FOR INITIATION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BETTER
LIFT/INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A SHIFT IN FLOW TO WEST-EAST AS
BLOCK FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. NOT A LOT OF CERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW GOOD SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. SHEER
PROFILES GENERALLY WOULDNT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FASTER MOVING COLD POOL DOMINANT CLUSTERS (AS NAM IS
GENERALLY SHOWING) WHICH SHOULD TAKE ON MORE OF A EASTERN MOTION.
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBLY FOR
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...OTHERWISE
IT SEEMS WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
I FELT COMFORTABLE BUMPING UP POPS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NW WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
CONSISTENCY. DUE TO COMPLICATIONS OF SKY/WX CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON
TEMPS AND WIND...SO I LEANED TOWARDS A MEAN BLEND WHICH STILL
REFLECTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SEASONALLY BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS AHEAD FOR THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY...HOWEVER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REGION...CAP COULD BREAK IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE TROUGH CLIPS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN REGARD TO THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT FUNNELED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PACIFIC AS UPPER LEVEL PROFILES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
AMPLE MOISTURE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN OTHER INSTANCES...THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAP DRY DESERT AIR AND BRING PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF
MIXING TAKES PLACE. JUST LEFT SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT IN MODEL FORECASTS...BUT CONVECTION REALLY
DEPENDS ON WHETHER THE MOIST OR DRY SOLUTIONS PAN OUT FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE PRIME LOCATIONS FOR LIFT OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY AT THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT THE LOWER AND THE MID LEVELS. BEST LOCATION AT
THE MOMENT SHOULD BE EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT TO
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LIFT REMAINS POOR.
TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
BEFORE A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. COOLER
AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 70S...WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL THE PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD NEAR 18Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF KGLD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN LOOK TO AFFECT THE SITE AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER...DETAILS THIS FAR
OUT WITH CONVECTION ARE HARD TO ARRIVE AT. SO AT THIS TIME CHOSE
TO INCLUDE VCTS AT KGLD BEGINNING AT 01Z.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS EXPECTED IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STORMS COULD AFFECT THE SITE DURING MOST OF THIS LAST SIX
HOURS. BECAUSE OF THAT SLOW MOVEMENT AND UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAR
EAST THESE STORMS WILL GET...IT DOES LOOK LIKE AT THIS TIME THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR TO OR JUST WEST OF KMCK BY THE END OF
THIS PERIOD. SO CHOSE NOT TO MAKE ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. OVERALL...THIS LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS SKY COVER
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A QUICKER DROP
OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE EASTERN VALLEYS. OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO MIN T ATTM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS. NEAR TERM SKY COVER WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE
CONSSHORT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER
FOR THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING DESPITE SOME OF THE RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS DEVELOPING
SHOWERS OVER THE BELL AND HARLAN COUNTY AREA EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST LATE AT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS
DRY OVERNIGHT AND SREF POPS ARE LOW OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND WITH THE
RIDGE HOLDING ON TONIGHT FEEL THIS IS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE
IN A FEW SPOTS.
THE THREAT OF ISOLATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED BARELY OUT OF THE AREA. THE
REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY BEFORE MOVING
BACK ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN IN THE
GRADIENT OF THETA E DISPLAY OF THE NAM AND I WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO
ACTUALLY CALL IT A WARM FRONT. THE NET RESULT WILL BE TO BRING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW AND THE ABOVE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLENDS FOR THE FORECASTS. EXPECT DRAY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL WAS PREDICTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES FROM 6 TO 9 PM
TONIGHT...HOWEVER CHOSE TO IGNORE THIS DUE TO THE LACK OF
ORGANIZATION SHOWING UP ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES CONFINED TO MAINLY TIMING
ISSUES.
ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE AREA. VERY FEW TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT SOME TERRAIN INDUCED BOUNDARIES MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WE
MAY SEE A LULL BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SKIRTING THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SHORTWAVE AFTER
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE PERIOD
FAIRLY UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY BROAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS TIMING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MAY
DIFFER QUITE A BIT. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR A WHILE WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR LOWER
VALLEY FOG 6Z TO 13Z...AND THIS COULD AFFECT LOZ AND SME. THE FOG
FROM NEARBY VALLEYS MAY ALSO LIFT INTO SJS. MID AND LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER ABOUT 10Z AS MOISTURE
INCREASES DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING EAST. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND
OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED FOR
EVEN VCSH OR VCTS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
852 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS. NEAR TERM SKY COVER WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE
CONSSHORT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER
FOR THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING DESPITE SOME OF THE RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS DEVELOPING
SHOWERS OVER THE BELL AND HARLAN COUNTY AREA EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST LATE AT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS
DRY OVERNIGHT AND SREF POPS ARE LOW OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND WITH THE
RIDGE HOLDING ON TONIGHT FEEL THIS IS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE
IN A FEW SPOTS.
THE THREAT OF ISOLATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED BARELY OUT OF THE AREA. THE
REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY BEFORE MOVING
BACK ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN IN THE
GRADIENT OF THETA E DISPLAY OF THE NAM AND I WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO
ACTUALLY CALL IT A WARM FRONT. THE NET RESULT WILL BE TO BRING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW AND THE ABOVE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLENDS FOR THE FORECASTS. EXPECT DRAY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL WAS PREDICTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES FROM 6 TO 9 PM
TONIGHT...HOWEVER CHOSE TO IGNORE THIS DUE TO THE LACK OF
ORGANIZATION SHOWING UP ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES CONFINED TO MAINLY TIMING
ISSUES.
ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE AREA. VERY FEW TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT SOME TERRAIN INDUCED BOUNDARIES MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WE
MAY SEE A LULL BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SKIRTING THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SHORTWAVE AFTER
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE PERIOD
FAIRLY UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY BROAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS TIMING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MAY
DIFFER QUITE A BIT. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR A WHILE WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR LOWER
VALLEY FOG 6Z TO 13Z...AND THIS COULD AFFECT LOZ AND SME. THE FOG
FROM NEARBY VALLEYS MAY ALSO LIFT INTO SJS. MID AND LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER ABOUT 10Z AS MOISTURE
INCREASES DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING EAST. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND
OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED FOR
EVEN VCSH OR VCTS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
306 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO FRESHEN UP ZONE WORDING...REMOVE MENTION
OF FOG. ALSO TWEAKED GRIDS TO LATEST HOURLY OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
APPEARED IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. EXPECTING ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SERVING AS A FOCUS. HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO FIRE BETWEEN 16-17Z GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A MOUNT STERLING
TO PAINTSVILLE LINE WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 7 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS A BIT THIS MORNING USING THE LATEST OBS AND
MODEL DATA. SOME EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG...DENSE IN PLACES...SHOULD
BE GONE BY 9 OR 930 THIS MORNING. FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A WARM AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE BOARD. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE AREA TO REMAIN RAIN FREE UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE TODAY. ONCE THE SUN IS UP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN FIRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD SHOULD BE FROM AROUND 15Z THIS
MORNING THROUGH AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WE ARE EXPECTING TODAY SHOULD OCCUR PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA...ALONG WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AROUND 1Z THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN FROM LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE...MEANING QUIET
NIGHTS SHOULD PREVAIL.
BY TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SUPPRESSING THE HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR THIS REASON...OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK...AND MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH
THE SYSTEM...SO IT MAY BE MORE OVER THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING ANOTHER
SHOT AT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER STEADY WITH READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
JKL...SJS...AND LOZ WILL CONTINUE TO SEE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS DUE
TO FOG THROUGH 13Z OR SO THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AT JKL AND LOZ...SO THOSE AIRPORTS MAY BE IN THE CLEAR BY 830. SJS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN ALL NIGHT...AS THAT SITE MAY NOT BE FREE OF FOG
UNTIL 14Z. ONCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
BY AROUND 15Z AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS TODAY...THE TAF SITES WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE AFFECTED DIRECTLY...BUT DID USE VCTS FOR LOZ AND SME
IN CASE A STORM STRAYS NEAR EITHER AIRPORT. ASIDE FROM THAT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
940 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO FRESHEN UP ZONE WORDING...REMOVE MENTION
OF FOG. ALSO TWEAKED GRIDS TO LATEST HOURLY OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
APPEARED IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. EXPECTING ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SERVING AS A FOCUS. HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO FIRE BETWEEN 16-17Z GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A MOUNT STERLING
TO PAINTSVILLE LINE WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 7 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS A BIT THIS MORNING USING THE LATEST OBS AND
MODEL DATA. SOME EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG...DENSE IN PLACES...SHOULD
BE GONE BY 9 OR 930 THIS MORNING. FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A WARM AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE BOARD. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE AREA TO REMAIN RAIN FREE UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE TODAY. ONCE THE SUN IS UP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN FIRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD SHOULD BE FROM AROUND 15Z THIS
MORNING THROUGH AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WE ARE EXPECTING TODAY SHOULD OCCUR PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA...ALONG WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AROUND 1Z THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
THE MODELS START OUT THE EXTENDED IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS
THEY SHOW AN ELONGATED POCKET OF RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WELL
WEST OF A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND NORTHWEST OF A
FILLING AND RETREATING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THIS SETUP SENDS THE BULK OF ANY ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTH OF
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE TRACK OF MINOR MID LEVEL WAVES SLIP
CLOSER TO THE STATE. OF PARTICULAR NOTE WILL BE THE WEAKNESS
INITIATED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE RIDGING CLOSER TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA GETS COMPLICATED DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE WEAKER...FAVORING A WAVE MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS CURL ALL THIS
ENERGY INTO A CONSENSUS TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER BY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE EARLIER OHIO VALLEY
RIDGING HAS SETTLED INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION AND
WEAKENED. ACCORDINGLY...MORE IN THE WAY OF ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGH OF
SOME SORT SLOWLY MOVING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY SOME SEMBLANCE OF MODEL
AGREEMENT LEAVES WITH THE ECMWF DEEPENING AND SLOWING ITS TROUGH/
CLOSED LOW AND THE GFS MOVING ITS VERSION QUICKER TO THE EAST. THE
DELAY OF THE UPPER LOW PASSING BY TO THE NORTH IN THE ECMWF WILL
ALSO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF RENEWED RIDGING FOR KENTUCKY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE GEM SEEMS TO SPLIT THE TWO OTHER MODELS AND MAY
ACTUALLY REPRESENT A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE RELATIVELY
FLAT AND FAST FLOW PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND AMPLE
ENERGY WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD AND CONSENSUS
FALLING IN THE MIDDLE WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE CR INIT PROVIDES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS RETURNING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SLIPS AWAY. FOLLOWING THIS...A DIURNAL PATTERN...OCCASIONALLY
ENHANCED FROM PASSING MIDLEVEL ENERGY PACKETS...WILL DOMINATE DURING
THIS FAIRLY TYPICAL WET PHASE OF A SUMMERY PATTERN THANKS TO AN OPEN
GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK WITH
TIMING DEFINED BY WHICH MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE MORE CORRECT ABOUT THE
PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW SKIRTING THE GREAT
LAKES. THE GFS WOULD BRING THIS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY NEVER CROSS INTO EAST KENTUCKY AND
INSTEAD JUST SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. EITHER
WAY...A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
NEARBY AND ENERGY ALOFT MOVING BY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
STILL EXPECT THE THE DIURNAL CYCLE TO DOMINATE THE CONVECTIVE TIMING
DURING THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED WHILE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE.
DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE
FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE HOURLY POP/SKY AND WX GRIDS
FOR MORE OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SET OF PEAKS AND VALLEYS. ALSO...FINE
TUNED THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO IMPART GREATER RIDGE
TO VALLEY DISTINCTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
JKL...SJS...AND LOZ WILL CONTINUE TO SEE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS DUE
TO FOG THROUGH 13Z OR SO THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AT JKL AND LOZ...SO THOSE AIRPORTS MAY BE IN THE CLEAR BY 830. SJS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN ALL NIGHT...AS THAT SITE MAY NOT BE FREE OF FOG
UNTIL 14Z. ONCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
BY AROUND 15Z AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS TODAY...THE TAF SITES WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE AFFECTED DIRECTLY...BUT DID USE VCTS FOR LOZ AND SME
IN CASE A STORM STRAYS NEAR EITHER AIRPORT. ASIDE FROM THAT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW OVER NW LA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN
SLOWLY CIRCULATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. ALONG WITH
THESE DOWNPOURS WILL COME TEMPO PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH RETURNS TO LOW VFR CIGS BTWN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS TODAY...AS WINDS
REMAIN A LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY THRU PERIOD./VII/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF
SHV THIS MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW STRETCHED FARTHER NE OVER
SCNTRL AR. SFC OBS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICT A
WEAK SFC LOW FARTHER SW OVER E TX JUST SW OF TYR...WITH AN
ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO ALONG THE AR/LA LINE...WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE FOR SCT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP TO ITS N. POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEATING OVER WRN AND NCNTRL
LA HAS RESULTED IN AGITATED CU TOWERS...WITH WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
JUST NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS. THE 12Z NAM HAS
INITIALIZED WELL ON THE E TX SFC LOW THIS MORNING...AND WEAKENS
IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE CONVECTION MORE MESOSCALE
DRIVEN ESPECIALLY OVER N LA/SW AR/SE OK/EXTREME NE TX ON THE E
SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD PERHAPS ONLY DRIFT A TAD
FARTHER W THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR HAS INITIALIZED WELL ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY ESPECIALLY AS ADDITIONAL HEATING IS ADDED WITHIN A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAINLY
FOR THIS MORNING PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND DID LOWER POPS A
TAD TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA WITH
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED.
DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...RAISING
THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED 15Z TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ALREADY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 83 68 83 69 87 / 60 40 60 30 40
MLU 84 68 84 67 86 / 60 40 60 30 40
DEQ 81 67 81 68 84 / 60 40 60 30 40
TXK 79 66 82 68 84 / 60 40 60 30 40
ELD 82 67 81 67 84 / 60 40 60 30 40
TYR 82 68 82 68 85 / 40 40 40 20 40
GGG 82 68 83 68 86 / 50 40 40 30 40
LFK 85 69 85 69 87 / 60 40 40 20 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1101 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF
SHV THIS MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW STRETCHED FARTHER NE OVER
SCNTRL AR. SFC OBS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICT A
WEAK SFC LOW FARTHER SW OVER E TX JUST SW OF TYR...WITH AN
ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO ALONG THE AR/LA LINE...WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE FOR SCT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP TO ITS N. POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEATING OVER WRN AND NCNTRL
LA HAS RESULTED IN AGITATED CU TOWERS...WITH WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
JUST NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS. THE 12Z NAM HAS
INITIALIZED WELL ON THE E TX SFC LOW THIS MORNING...AND WEAKENS
IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE CONVECTION MORE MESOSCALE
DRIVEN ESPECIALLY OVER N LA/SW AR/SE OK/EXTREME NE TX ON THE E
SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD PERHAPS ONLY DRIFT A TAD
FARTHER W THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR HAS INITIALIZED WELL ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY ESPECIALLY AS ADDITIONAL HEATING IS ADDED WITHIN A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAINLY
FOR THIS MORNING PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND DID LOWER POPS A
TAD TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA WITH
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED.
DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...RAISING
THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED 15Z TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ALREADY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 83 68 83 69 87 / 60 40 60 30 40
MLU 84 68 84 67 86 / 60 40 60 30 40
DEQ 81 67 81 68 84 / 60 40 60 30 40
TXK 79 66 82 68 84 / 60 40 60 30 40
ELD 82 67 81 67 84 / 60 40 60 30 40
TYR 82 68 82 68 85 / 40 40 40 20 40
GGG 82 68 83 68 86 / 50 40 40 30 40
LFK 85 69 85 69 87 / 60 40 40 20 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
659 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL HOLD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING. FOR
AIRFIELDS CLOSER TO THE WATER...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LAKE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING KDTW, KYIP, AND KDET
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
SHORT TERM... REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE IS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON THAT MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE LOWER MICHIGAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
WEAK BUT IS IN FULL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY SKY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
SETTLING OFF HIGHS AROUND 80. THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
SHORELINES WHERE COOLER READINGS WILL BE ENSURED BY THE LAKE BREEZE.
FARTHER INLAND...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
MODIFICATION BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAND AND WATER WHICH
REPRESENTS ABOUT THE ONLY OTHER NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE WEATHER WORTH
DISCUSSION. LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER INLAND AREAS WILL QUICKLY
FILL TOWARD SUNSET AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A NOTICEABLE INLAND RELEASE
OF THE LAKE BREEZE. IN THIS CASE...THE PROCESS WILL BE A HYBRID OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING LOSS AND THE BACKDOOR FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
ENTERS SE MICHIGAN LEAVING THE NET RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST A LIGHT/VARIABLE
SURFACE WIND BECOMING NE DURING THE EVENING AND THEN LINGERING
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THEN LOOK SOLID BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER (587 DAM AT 500 MB) OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TOMORROW. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TEMPER THE UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...AND DO NOT FORESEE TOMORROW BEING MUCH
WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 80 DEGREES/LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO HOLD AROUND 12 C. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO FURTHER
WARMING...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 15 C (PER 12Z UKMET WHICH LIES IN
BETWEEN THE COOLER NAM/WARMER GFS)...SUPPORTIVE OF MID
80S...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-23...FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE BACKED
SURFACE FLOW OFF THE COLD LAKES. GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS PW VALUES RISE TOWARD 1.75 INCHES. SOME UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/PV FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST LOOKS TO
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE INCREASING AND DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HELP OF A MODESTLY INCREASED NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ON MONDAY IN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT STRADDLED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS AND CORRESPONDING
INSTABILITY...AS MODELS SUGGESTING DEW PTS PUSHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. LOOKING AT HEAVY RAIN AS MAIN HAZARD...AS 0-6 KM SHEAR
IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH LATEST INDICATIONS ARE ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD FAVOR THE MORNING HOURS. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO
TAKE HOLD AS BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE THOUGH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES...SPELLING A RETURN OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
FLUCTUATE IN THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW AND STABLE CONDITIONS
SUSTAINED BY THE COLD WATER WILL LEAD TO VERY LITTLE FLOW. SOME
MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WIND DIRECTION
BECOMES SOUTHERLY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LEADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON MONDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SHORT TERM... REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE IS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON THAT MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE LOWER MICHIGAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
WEAK BUT IS IN FULL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY SKY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
SETTLING OFF HIGHS AROUND 80. THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
SHORELINES WHERE COOLER READINGS WILL BE ENSURED BY THE LAKE BREEZE.
FARTHER INLAND...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
MODIFICATION BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAND AND WATER WHICH
REPRESENTS ABOUT THE ONLY OTHER NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE WEATHER WORTH
DISCUSSION. LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER INLAND AREAS WILL QUICKLY
FILL TOWARD SUNSET AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A NOTICEABLE INLAND RELEASE
OF THE LAKE BREEZE. IN THIS CASE...THE PROCESS WILL BE A HYBRID OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING LOSS AND THE BACKDOOR FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
ENTERS SE MICHIGAN LEAVING THE NET RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST A LIGHT/VARIABLE
SURFACE WIND BECOMING NE DURING THE EVENING AND THEN LINGERING
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THEN LOOK SOLID BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER (587 DAM AT 500 MB) OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TOMORROW. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TEMPER THE UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...AND DO NOT FORESEE TOMORROW BEING MUCH
WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 80 DEGREES/LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO HOLD AROUND 12 C. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO FURTHER
WARMING...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 15 C (PER 12Z UKMET WHICH LIES IN
BETWEEN THE COOLER NAM/WARMER GFS)...SUPPORTIVE OF MID
80S...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-23...FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE BACKED
SURFACE FLOW OFF THE COLD LAKES. GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS PW VALUES RISE TOWARD 1.75 INCHES. SOME UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/PV FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST LOOKS TO
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE INCREASING AND DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HELP OF A MODESTLY INCREASED NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ON MONDAY IN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT STRADDLED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS AND CORRESPONDING
INSTABILITY...AS MODELS SUGGESTING DEW PTS PUSHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. LOOKING AT HEAVY RAIN AS MAIN HAZARD...AS 0-6 KM SHEAR
IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH LATEST INDICATIONS ARE ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD FAVOR THE MORNING HOURS. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO
TAKE HOLD AS BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE THOUGH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES...SPELLING A RETURN OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
FLUCTUATE IN THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW AND STABLE CONDITIONS
SUSTAINED BY THE COLD WATER WILL LEAD TO VERY LITTLE FLOW. SOME
MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WIND DIRECTION
BECOMES SOUTHERLY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LEADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1247 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WIND WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR
STYLE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT BUT DOES
REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING SATURDAY
AND BRING LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
MASK LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE IN THE DTW AREA AND MAY PREVENT A LAKE
BREEZE WIND SHIFT AT MBS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW... A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM LAKE ERIE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LATER RELEASE
OF LAKE BREEZE FROM LAKE HURON COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTH.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
957 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST. DID ADJUST AXIS OF HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS HEAVIEST PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED
IMMEDIATELY ALONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER SE LA/SW MS. QUICK LOOK
AT THE NAM SHOWS THIS AREA CONTINUING TO GET THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW CENTER BEGINS ITS SLOW SW DRIFT OUT OF AR.
LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY FOR A WEAK/BRRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL MAINLY
IN THE SOUTH. KLIX SOUNDING SHOWING NEAR 150 M2/S2 OF SR HELICITY AND
THE RAP SHOWING NEAR 20 KNOTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR THIS MORNING. LOW LCLS
WILL BE PREVALENT AS WELL AS THE NEAR TROPICAL AIRMASS (PWS ~ 1.8 IN)
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION./26/
&&
.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATING AROUND A PESKY UPPER
LOW CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER ALL SITES. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT 8-12KTS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. /15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014/
..MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TAP TODAY AND SATURDAY...
SHORT RANGE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WHICH
HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH THE FEATURE IS INDEED
WEAKENING EXPECT A LOT OF RAIN AND STORMS TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH
INTO OUR REGION WAS BEING SOMEWHAT COMPROMISED BY OFFSHORE
CONVECTION INTERCEPTING THE BEST QUALITY JUICE. IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
THIS BLOCKAGE HAS BEEN RELIEVED A GOOD BIT...SO GULF MOISTURE INPUT
IS CURRENTLY SUBSTANTIAL DESPITE LESSENING MAGNITUDE OF ASSOCIATED
WIND VECTORS. BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL
CONVECTIVE MOISTURE BLOCKING TO POP UP AGAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND THAT IS ONE REASON WHY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
FOR TODAY I HAVE INCLUDED A LIMITED RISK FOR FLOODING IN THE HWO FOR
MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
BEING SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY COMPARED TO FURTHER NORTH AND BECAUSE THE
GROUND IS GENERALLY MORE SATURATED AND FLOOD-PRONE IN THOSE AREAS.
SOME STORMS YESTERDAY ACHIEVED MINOR BRIEF ORGANIZATION BUT LESSER
LOW LEVEL SHEAR TODAY SHOULD PRECLUDE THAT HAPPENING AGAIN TODAY. AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS AGAIN...BUT HIGHS
WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. FOR
TONIGHT ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY WANING A GOOD DEAL BY LATE EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY STORM WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY.
ON SATURDAY THE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP TO
PROMOTE A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY TO CONVECTION...MEANING A MAJORITY
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL GIVE PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS A
WINDOW TO GET THINGS ACCOMPLISHED BUT KEEP IN MIND DURING THE
AFTERNOON THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE IN
THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES MAY MANAGE TO PEAK IN THE
MID 80S IN MANY AREAS WITH PLENTIFUL HUMIDITY MAKING CONDITIONS NOT
TERRIBLY COMFORTABLE. BY SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD REALLY
TEND TO DROP OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WELL
INTO THE NIGHT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. /BB/
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO HUGE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPS CAME IN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THINGS WERE A LITTLE WARMER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN SOME
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE WARM AND WET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE NEARLY EACH AFTERNOON. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND
1.5 IN OR GREATER...SO WAVES OF TROPICAL LIKE DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY.
WITH MICROBURST SEASON HERE WOULD EXPECT SOME FAST DEVELOPING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD...SO LEFT THE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE HWO CLEAR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE BATTLING RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR THE ARKLAMISS. BY SUNDAY THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
WEST OF THE CWA...WILL HAVE SLOWLY DRIFTED WEST AND SOUTH INTO THE
GULF. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORCED NORTH INTO THE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE WAVES OF CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WERE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SEEMS TO
DEVELOP AND MEANDER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FLATTENS AND ALLOWS THE
BOUNDARY TO STALL JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE TAIL END OF
THE BOUNDARY MAY EXTEND INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WHILE PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE DRY PACIFIC AIR
WILL BE FLOWING FROM THE WEST. THE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
FINALLY MOVES EAST CUTTING OFF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BRINGING A
BREAK IN THE RAIN. SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
SOUTH ANY MAYBE EAST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE THE
UPPER LOW AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE FEATURE HANG OVER THE GULF INTO
THE WEEKEND...KEEPING AN AREA OF CONVECTION GOING ALL WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
POCKETS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR FLIGHT CATS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING DUE MAINLY TO LOW CEILINGS. IN VFR AREAS ANTICIPATE FEW TO
SCT COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS MORE THAN LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS A GREATER POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AWAY FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 83 68 85 66 / 73 44 56 30
MERIDIAN 82 67 86 64 / 76 39 53 30
VICKSBURG 83 70 85 68 / 70 44 56 30
HATTIESBURG 83 69 86 68 / 77 47 61 30
NATCHEZ 83 69 85 68 / 77 44 67 30
GREENVILLE 82 70 85 69 / 70 44 55 30
GREENWOOD 82 69 85 68 / 70 44 58 30
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
533 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
Scattered thunderstorms have had more coverage this afternoon than
yesterday. These storms are occurring in an axis of 925-850mb
moisture convergence that shows up well in the latest runs on of the
RAP. Still expect the storms to gradually diminish early this
evening as the RAP shows the aforementioned low level forcing
weakening at the same time we will lose daytime heating. Expect the
rest of the night to be mainly dry with the potential for some
patchy fog toward morning. MOS lows in the mid-upper 60s still look
reasonable given current dewpoints.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
This discussion is probably starting to sound like a broken record,
but once again, not much change from the prev forecast.
Thru the weekend, expect much of the same as the past couple of
days. TSRA will develop mid to late morning and continue into the
evening before dissipating. Have therefore continued a persistence
forecast thru the weekend for POPs and temps.
Mdls are in good agreement bringing a cdfnt into the region on Mon
as an upper trof ejects into the Plains as the upper ridge finally
breaks down. This fnt shud bring TSRA to portions of the area.
Latest mdls suggest stronger upper forcing further swd than the prev
couple of days. Have therefore continued higher POPs as more than
enuf moisture and heating shud be available for convective
development. Did not spread the likely POPs too much further S due
to uncertainty of how far the fnt will drift S given the better
forcing remaining further N.
Mdl solns begin diverging much beyond Mon and have continued a
fairly persistent forecast for temps for now. Have also kept POPs in
the low to mid chance range due to differences among mdl solns.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to quickly diminish
with the loss of daytime heating, similar to the last few days.
Many more places saw measurable rainfall today, only adding more
low level moisture and the potential of fog developing late
tonight. Have not added the fog yet, as want to make sure that
cloud cover will dissipate sufficiently to allow some cooling of
the atmosphere. Otherwise, rinse and repeat for tomorrow with
showers and thunderstorms redeveloping in the afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL:
Expect most of the showers will have dissipated or moved away from
the terminal by 00Z. Have some worry that we could see some fog
develop overnight due to todays rainfall, but will wait to see how
the atmosphere responds this evening. Otherwise should see showers
and thunderstorms redevelop on Saturday in unstable atmosphere.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
329 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
Scattered thunderstorms have had more coverage this afternoon than
yesterday. These storms are occurring in an axis of 925-850mb
moisture convergence that shows up well in the latest runs on of the
RAP. Still expect the storms to gradually diminish early this
evening as the RAP shows the aforementioned low level forcing
weakening at the same time we will lose daytime heating. Expect the
rest of the night to be mainly dry with the potential for some
patchy fog toward morning. MOS lows in the mid-upper 60s still look
reasonable given current dewpoints.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
This discussion is probably starting to sound like a broken record,
but once again, not much change from the prev forecast.
Thru the weekend, expect much of the same as the past couple of
days. TSRA will develop mid to late morning and continue into the
evening before dissipating. Have therefore continued a persistence
forecast thru the weekend for POPs and temps.
Mdls are in good agreement bringing a cdfnt into the region on Mon
as an upper trof ejects into the Plains as the upper ridge finally
breaks down. This fnt shud bring TSRA to portions of the area.
Latest mdls suggest stronger upper forcing further swd than the prev
couple of days. Have therefore continued higher POPs as more than
enuf moisture and heating shud be available for convective
development. Did not spread the likely POPs too much further S due
to uncertainty of how far the fnt will drift S given the better
forcing remaining further N.
Mdl solns begin diverging much beyond Mon and have continued a
fairly persistent forecast for temps for now. Have also kept POPs in
the low to mid chance range due to differences among mdl solns.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
Have moved up VCTS to the start of the TAF period based on the
quick initiation of thunderstorms this afternoon. Will continue to
monitor trends to see if there is the need to add TEMPO groups at
any of the TAF sites in the next few hours. Any of the heavier
cores will be capable of producing brief MVFR or possibly IFR
conditions in +TSRA. Otherwise expect the thunderstorms to diminish
by 01Z leaving dry and VFR conditions. There still may be some
patchy fog developing across the area between 09-14Z which may
affect some of the TAF sites, particularly if there is rain at
them this afternoon. Then expect scattered thunderstorms to
redevelop again tomorrow afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL: Thunderstorms are in the vicinity of KSTL at
this time, and may need to add a TEMPO group there this afternoon
depending on the trends. Expect thunderstorms to die out there by
01Z with loss of daytime heating. Some 5-6SM BR may develop in the
area between 10-13Z, particularly if there is rain at the terminal
this afternoon, however I do not have enough confidence at this
point to include at the terminal. Then expect scattered
thunderstorms to redevelop again after 18Z tomorrow afternoon.
Britt
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 70 87 69 87 / 30 30 20 40
Quincy 66 84 67 84 / 30 30 20 40
Columbia 66 84 67 84 / 30 50 20 40
Jefferson City 67 84 67 85 / 30 50 20 40
Salem 67 85 67 85 / 30 20 10 40
Farmington 65 84 66 82 / 30 40 20 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1244 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
Scattered thunderstorms have developed in the last hour across the
central and northeastern parts of the CWA in an area of modest
low level moisture convergence per the latest run of the RAP. These
storms have developed earlier than yesterday in an area of 1500
J/kg MLCAPE with no CIN. Expect scattered thunderstorms to
continue to move to the west and northwest this afternoon with the
potential for producing very heavy downpours given the
precipitable waters of 1.7 inches. Small hail and gusty winds also
remain a threat. Going highs in the mid 80s still look reasonable.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri May 30 2014
Isolated showers were occurring from Jerseyville southeast to Salem
IL early this morning with better coverage across southeast MO.
This activity was moving northwestward. The best coverage of
showers and storms this morning may occur across the southern
portion of the forecast area as weak shortwaves continue to rotate
around the persistent upper level low over southern AR and northern
LA. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be during the
afternoon hours as the atmosphere destabilizes due to daytime
heating. May see a little better coverage of convection this
afternoon along and just southwest of a weakening backdoor type cold
front moving slowly southwestward into northeast MO and southwest
IL. The latest HRRR model run has the best coverage of
showers/storms early this afternoon southwest of UIN and north of
COU and also southeast of STL. Highs today will be similar to
yesterday and slightly above normal with plenty of mid-high level
cloudiness along with diurnal cumulus clouds late this morning and
this afternoon.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri May 30 2014
With broad and slow moving ridge producing a sluggish weather
pattern over the central CONUS, persistence should provide a pretty
good first guess on upcoming sensible weather trends in most areas
heading into the weekend. Ridge axis does work east just a bit
during the weekend, but it still appears that weak disturbances
rotating around the upper low over the Gulf coast region will drift
up the east side of the ridge and into the mid-Mississippi Valley,
interacting with the weakly unstable airmass that is locked over the
area. This should mean a continued a threat of scattered showers and
thunderstorms, primarily during the afternoon and early evening
hours. We`ve used a fairly broad brush on PoPs on both Saturday and
Sunday afternoons/evenings, with the anticipation that any
fine-tuning of precipitation threat will have to wait until the
first period due to the very weak features that will be driving the
convection.
About the only location where we can rule out convection would be
extreme eastern sections of the FA on Saturday. Here, a bit of
drier air backdooring in from the east should stabilize the airmass
while the upper ridge exerts its greatest influence.
Temperatures should also reflect max/min trends of the past few days
and nights, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
Heading into the new work week, the upper ridge is forecast to
continue a slow eastward drift, which will allow a series of
shortwaves to push into the area as westerlies dip southward and
take on a more zonal look. While exact details are still a bit
sketchy, if this scenario does unfold there should be several good
chances of showers and thunderstorms in the Monday-Thursday time frame,
especially over the northern half of the FA.
With no major changes in the airmass during most of the medium
range temperatures should remain above average, with highs in the
80s and lows in the 60s.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
Have moved up VCTS to the start of the TAF period based on the
quick initiation of thunderstorms this afternoon. Will continue to
monitor trends to see if there is the need to add TEMPO groups at
any of the TAF sites in the next few hours. Any of the heavier
cores will be capable of producing brief MVFR or possibly IFR
conditions in +TSRA. Otherwise expect the thunderstorms to diminish
by 01Z leaving dry and VFR conditions. There still may be some
patchy fog developing across the area between 09-14Z which may
affect some of the TAF sites, particularly if there is rain at
them this afternoon. Then expect scattered thunderstorms to
redevelop again tomorrow afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL: Thunderstorms are in the vicinity of KSTL at
this time, and may need to add a TEMPO group there this afternoon
depending on the trends. Expect thunderstorms to die out there by
01Z with loss of daytime heating. Some 5-6SM BR may develop in the
area between 10-13Z, particularly if there is rain at the terminal
this afternoon, however I do not have enough confidence at this
point to include at the terminal. Then expect scattered
thunderstorms to redevelop again after 18Z tomorrow afternoon.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
544 AM CDT Fri May 30 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri May 30 2014
Isolated showers were occurring from Jerseyville southeast to Salem
IL early this morning with better coverage across southeast MO.
This activity was moving northwestward. The best coverage of
showers and storms this morning may occur across the southern
portion of the forecast area as weak shortwaves continue to rotate
around the persistent upper level low over southern AR and northern
LA. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be during the
afternoon hours as the atmosphere destabilizes due to daytime
heating. May see a little better coverage of convection this
afternoon along and just southwest of a weakening backdoor type cold
front moving slowly southwestward into northeast MO and southwest
IL. The latest HRRR model run has the best coverage of
showers/storms early this afternoon southwest of UIN and north of
COU and also southeast of STL. Highs today will be similar to
yesterday and slightly above normal with plenty of mid-high level
cloudiness along with diurnal cumulus clouds late this morning and
this afternoon.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri May 30 2014
With broad and slow moving ridge producing a sluggish weather
pattern over the central CONUS, persistence should provide a pretty
good first guess on upcoming sensible weather trends in most areas
heading into the weekend. Ridge axis does work east just a bit
during the weekend, but it still appears that weak disturbances
rotating around the upper low over the Gulf coast region will drift
up the east side of the ridge and into the mid-Mississippi Valley,
interacting with the weakly unstable airmass that is locked over the
area. This should mean a continued a threat of scattered showers and
thunderstorms, primarily during the afternoon and early evening
hours. We`ve used a fairly broad brush on PoPs on both Saturday and
Sunday afternoons/evenings, with the anticipation that any
fine-tuning of precipitation threat will have to wait until the
first period due to the very weak features that will be driving the
convection.
About the only location where we can rule out convection would be
extreme eastern sections of the FA on Saturday. Here, a bit of
drier air backdooring in from the east should stabilize the airmass
while the upper ridge exerts its greatest influence.
Temperatures should also reflect max/min trends of the past few days
and nights, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
Heading into the new work week, the upper ridge is forecast to
continue a slow eastward drift, which will allow a series of
shortwaves to push into the area as westerlies dip southward and
take on a more zonal look. While exact details are still a bit
sketchy, if this scenario does unfold there should be several good
chances of showers and thunderstorms in the Monday-Thursday time frame,
especially over the northern half of the FA.
With no major changes in the airmass during most of the medium
range temperatures should remain above average, with highs in the
80s and lows in the 60s.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 519 AM CDT Fri May 30 2014
Fog in UIN and CPS should dissipate by 14z this morning. Mid-
high level cloudiness will continue to advect northwestward
through our area, north of the upper level low over northern LA and
southern AR. At least scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will
develop late this morning and this afternoon. It appears that the
isolated showers moving northwestward across portions of southeast
MO and southwest IL will miss the taf sites early this morning,
but scattered showers/storms are expected this afternoon due to
daytime heating and destabilization. Will continue with VCTS in
the tafs during the afternoon into the early evening hours. Light
surface wind will become ely later this morning and increase to
8-10 kts with a surface ridge extending from the Great Lakes
region southwest into eastern MO. The surface wind will weaken
again this evening with fog possible late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level clouds will continue to advect
northwestward through STL with scattered diurnal cumulus clouds
late this morning and this afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected, mainly this afternoon. Light ely
surface wind will increase to around 9 kts this afternoon, then
weaken to around 5 kts by late tonight.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
347 AM CDT Fri May 30 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri May 30 2014
Isolated showers were occurring from Jerseyville southeast to Salem
IL early this morning with better coverage across southeast MO.
This activity was moving northwestward. The best coverage of
showers and storms this morning may occur across the southern
portion of the forecast area as weak shortwaves continue to rotate
around the persistent upper level low over southern AR and northern
LA. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be during the
afternoon hours as the atmosphere destabilizes due to daytime
heating. May see a little better coverage of convection this
afternoon along and just southwest of a weakening backdoor type cold
front moving slowly southwestward into northeast MO and southwest
IL. The latest HRRR model run has the best coverage of
showers/storms early this afternoon southwest of UIN and north of
COU and also southeast of STL. Highs today will be similar to
yesterday and slightly above normal with plenty of mid-high level
cloudiness along with diurnal cumulus clouds late this morning and
this afternoon.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri May 30 2014
With broad and slow moving ridge producing a sluggish weather
pattern over the central CONUS, persistence should provide a pretty
good first guess on upcoming sensible weather trends in most areas
heading into the weekend. Ridge axis does work east just a bit
during the weekend, but it still appears that weak disturbances
rotating around the upper low over the Gulf coast region will drift
up the east side of the ridge and into the mid-Mississippi Valley,
interacting with the weakly unstable airmass that is locked over the
area. This should mean a continued a threat of scattered showers and
thunderstorms, primarily during the afternoon and early evening
hours. We`ve used a fairly broad brush on PoPs on both Saturday and
Sunday afternoons/evenings, with the anticipation that any
fine-tuning of precipitation threat will have to wait until the
first period due to the very weak features that will be driving the
convection.
About the only location where we can rule out convection would be
extreme eastern sections of the FA on Saturday. Here, a bit of
drier air backdooring in from the east should stabilize the airmass
while the upper ridge exerts its greatest influence.
Temperatures should also reflect max/min trends of the past few days
and nights, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
Heading into the new work week, the upper ridge is forecast to
continue a slow eastward drift, which will allow a series of
shortwaves to push into the area as westerlies dip southward and
take on a more zonal look. While exact details are still a bit
sketchy, if this scenario does unfold there should be several good
chances of showers and thunderstorms in the Monday-Thursday time frame,
especially over the northern half of the FA.
With no major changes in the airmass during most of the medium
range temperatures should remain above average, with highs in the
80s and lows in the 60s.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Thu May 29 2014
Upper low continues to spin across Arkansas, sending a steady
fetch of mid and high level clouds northwest across the area.
Otherwise surface wind remain east/southeast. Slight chance of a
shower overnight, with a better chance of some MVFR fog and
stratus developing due to the stagnant airmass and high moisture
content.
Looking for showers and thunderstorms to redevelop by early
afternoon on Friday, but coverage will remain isolated to
scattered so VCTS remains in the forecast.
Specifics for KSTL:
Anticipate some MVFR fog and stratus to develop by 10Z, otherwise
should see improving conditions Friday morning with a renewed
threat of thunderstorms by Friday afternoon.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
343 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
OUR REGION IS AT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO POSSIBLE. PLEASE TAKE NOTE AND BE PREPARED EVERYONE.
FOR TONIGHT...WEAK ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
COMBINED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. SHOULD SEE SOME
INITIATION OVER OUR SOUTHERN MTNS BEFORE THE END OF THE AFTN...AND
AS OF 21Z THERE IS A TSTM NEAR CODY. OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS FAR
SE MT AS REMNANT PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT. THOUGH
GREATEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE SHOULD
STAY TO OUR SOUTHEAST...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS INTO CARTER COUNTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO...ONSET OF MODEST SELY LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS COMING OFF
THE MTNS INTO OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS ONCE WE GET TO SUNSET AND
BEYOND. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING.
TSTMS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE.
ON SATURDAY...INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WX EPISODE...WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT PER
APPROACHING PAC TROF...A RAPID MOISTENING OF OUR AIRMASS AS WE TAP
INTO NEAR 1 INCH PWAT AIR POOLED JUST TO OUR SE...AND VERY
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.
DEWPTS INTO THE 50S AND REASONABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST AN
ISOLD TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF BILLINGS AS SFC
LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WY. SREF SEVERE PARAMETERS
CONTINUE TO PEG OUR REGION FOR SEVERE WX TOMORROW...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
A FEW DETAILS TO WORK OUT. SYNOPTIC ASCENT BY 12-18Z TOMORROW IN
OUR WEST SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY...AND
WITH ENOUGH COVERAGE THIS COULD MUDDLE UP THE AIRMASS TO OUR WEST.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR OUR CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE WE
SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION...AND LATEST GFS/NAM
SHOWS A BREAKING OF THE CAP IN THE BILLINGS AREA BY 2-3PM...WHICH
IS STILL A LITTLE ON THE EARLY SIDE. PER THE LONG DURATION OF
ASCENT WE COULD SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ROLL THROUGH.
PLEASE BE READY FOR DANGEROUS WX TOMORROW FOLKS.
UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT WITH COOLER AIR AND LESS
INSTABILITY SO DO NOT SEE A SEVERE RISK FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
EXCEPTION COULD BE IN OUR FAR EAST WHERE HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
RESIDE NEAR SFC TROF. THIS COULD BE IMPACTED BY HOW CONVECTION
EVOLVES SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY NOT BE SEVERE...WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF 3.5-5.5KFT UNDER THE UPPER TROF
SUGGEST SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS TO OUR WEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TOMORROW THEN MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY. A COOLER NIGHT COMING SUNDAY NIGHT AS PCPN TAPERS OFF
AND SFC RIDGE SETTLES IN.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH PERIODIC PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL IN PART DUE
TO WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
MONDAY CONTINUES THE COOL...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...AND WET
TREND AS AN UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE CIRCULATING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. DRIER AIR
ALOFT DOES START TO GET PULLED INTO THE WEST...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT INCREASED SUNSHINE
SHOULD TRIGGER DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER...AND DID RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. ANOTHER UPPER
TROF APPEARS TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER IMPROVED CHANCE OF EXTENSIVE PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE PATTERN TURNS SOMEWHAT DRIER AND ZONAL BY THURSDAY. AIRMASS
SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE...BRINGING CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAK ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SPREAD
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND IN FAR SE MT...WITH OCCASIONAL
MTN OBSCURATIONS. ON SATURDAY...OUR REGION IS AT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ALL TAF SITES COULD BE IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ON SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS AFTER 18Z.
JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/075 056/069 048/068 049/075 054/074 052/076 053/073
26/T 67/T 45/T 53/T 55/T 32/T 23/T
LVM 046/074 048/069 043/067 044/074 046/071 044/074 044/073
36/T 56/T 55/T 53/T 44/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 051/078 056/070 047/069 048/077 053/077 051/078 052/074
26/T 67/T 45/T 53/T 55/T 32/T 23/T
MLS 054/079 058/072 051/069 049/075 054/075 055/077 054/072
25/T 76/T 55/T 43/T 44/T 33/T 33/T
4BQ 054/080 058/072 050/070 050/075 053/075 054/077 053/073
34/T 66/T 45/T 43/T 55/T 44/T 43/T
BHK 051/076 056/071 050/067 048/072 051/072 052/074 052/070
23/T 77/T 55/T 43/T 34/T 43/T 33/T
SHR 048/080 052/071 046/069 045/075 048/072 048/073 049/072
36/T 66/T 35/T 54/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1254 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE AMANDA MOVES EAST INTO WRN NEB THIS AFTN.
THE HRRR IS LIGHTING UP THIS AREA WITH SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 19Z
ON. THIS MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO TOO FAST. MEANWHILE THE RAP SHOWS
K INDICES OVER 40C AND A STORM MOTION AROUND 200 DEGREES AT 8
KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY. 3 HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 2 INCHES SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING. NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH
THIS FORECAST BUT HEAVY RAIN WORDING IS IN PLACE IN THIS GENERAL
AREA.
THE MOISTURE PLUME ADVANCES EAST A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT MORE
IMPORTANT THE SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR KVTN-KIML AND
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THIS FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT. THUS TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB.
THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN COVERS MAINLY SHERIDAN COUNTY WHERE
BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KTS. THE RAP AND NAM SUGGESTED
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS AND THEN SOUTH INTO SHANNON COUNTY SD.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING
AND HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE RAP AND
HRRR SHOW A DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH DEEPER MIXING AND HIGHS
NEAR 90 AND THESE MODELS BLENDED WITH THE REST PRODUCES A FCST
FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A SECOND TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AGAIN BY
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK.
SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE WITH EACH WAVE. ON SATURDAY A WAVE WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE. A BRIEF DRY SLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THE SECONDARY WAVE WILL
ARRIVE LATE WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 35 KTS TO SUSTAIN
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
POSSIBLE BREAK IN ACTION SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE GETS
READY FOR THE NEXT WAVE LATER IN THE DAY. FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE
MORE ZONAL...COMPARED TO THE SW FLOW FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS
GOOD WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.50 TO AS HIGH AS 1.75 AHEAD OF
THE WAVE. THE GOOD MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE ADDED SHEAR
FROM THE MID LEVEL FLOW BEING A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY AND TEMPS
INTO THE 80S WITH EARLY SUN. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY/LOW...WITH A GENERALLY
CONSENSUS OF THE LOW TO BE IN EASTERN COLORADO OR WESTERN
KANSAS...SW OF THE CWA. THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE THE ONLY
CONCERN...AS STORMS SHOULD BE GOOD RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AS
THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
TRAIN OF WAVES CONTINUES AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHILE POPS ARE IN EVERY PERIOD IN THE
EXTENDED...THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE ACTION...AND EVEN
SOME CLEARING. ALTHOUGH THE BREAKS MAYBE SHORT LIVED AND TIMING
THEM IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. AS FOR TEMPS...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO
PUSH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY TSRA IN THE KLBF TAF...BUT LOWER AT KVTN SO
OPTED FOR VCTS. VFR WILL BE THE RULE...BUT MVFR OR IFR MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS...BUT VARIABLE AND GUSTY
NEAR ANY STORM.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
632 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE AMANDA MOVES EAST INTO WRN NEB THIS AFTN.
THE HRRR IS LIGHTING UP THIS AREA WITH SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 19Z
ON. THIS MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO TOO FAST. MEANWHILE THE RAP SHOWS
K INDICES OVER 40C AND A STORM MOTION AROUND 200 DEGREES AT 8
KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY. 3 HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 2 INCHES SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING. NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH
THIS FORECAST BUT HEAVY RAIN WORDING IS IN PLACE IN THIS GENERAL
AREA.
THE MOISTURE PLUME ADVANCES EAST A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT MORE
IMPORTANT THE SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR KVTN-KIML AND
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THIS FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT. THUS TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB.
THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN COVERS MAINLY SHERIDAN COUNTY WHERE
BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KTS. THE RAP AND NAM SUGGESTED
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS AND THEN SOUTH INTO SHANNON COUNTY SD.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING
AND HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE RAP AND
HRRR SHOW A DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH DEEPER MIXING AND HIGHS
NEAR 90 AND THESE MODELS BLENDED WITH THE REST PRODUCES A FCST
FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A SECOND TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AGAIN BY
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK.
SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE WITH EACH WAVE. ON SATURDAY A WAVE WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE. A BRIEF DRY SLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THE SECONDARY WAVE WILL
ARRIVE LATE WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 35 KTS TO SUSTAIN
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
POSSIBLE BREAK IN ACTION SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE GETS
READY FOR THE NEXT WAVE LATER IN THE DAY. FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE
MORE ZONAL...COMPARED TO THE SW FLOW FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS
GOOD WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.50 TO AS HIGH AS 1.75 AHEAD OF
THE WAVE. THE GOOD MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE ADDED SHEAR
FROM THE MID LEVEL FLOW BEING A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY AND TEMPS
INTO THE 80S WITH EARLY SUN. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY/LOW...WITH A GENERALLY
CONSENSUS OF THE LOW TO BE IN EASTERN COLORADO OR WESTERN
KANSAS...SW OF THE CWA. THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE THE ONLY
CONCERN...AS STORMS SHOULD BE GOOD RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AS
THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
TRAIN OF WAVES CONTINUES AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHILE POPS ARE IN EVERY PERIOD IN THE
EXTENDED...THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE ACTION...AND EVEN
SOME CLEARING. ALTHOUGH THE BREAKS MAYBE SHORT LIVED AND TIMING
THEM IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. AS FOR TEMPS...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83...MIXED CONDITIONS IN TSTMS AND MVFR CIGS.
A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE AMANDA
MOVES EAST INTO WRN NEB THIS AFTN AND ADVANCES INTO NCNTL NEB OVERNIGHT.
TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS WRN NEB THIS MORNING/AFTN AND REMAIN
FAIRLY ROBUST OVERNIGHT AS IT SPREADS EAST INTO NCNTL NEB.
A STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR KCDR WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT FORMING A BANK OF STRATUS FROM KOGA-KIML-KIEN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE AMANDA MOVES EAST INTO WRN NEB THIS AFTN.
THE HRRR IS LIGHTING UP THIS AREA WITH SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 19Z
ON. THIS MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO TOO FAST. MEANWHILE THE RAP SHOWS
K INDICES OVER 40C AND A STORM MOTION AROUND 200 DEGREES AT 8
KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY. 3 HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 2 INCHES SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING. NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH
THIS FORECAST BUT HEAVY RAIN WORDING IS IN PLACE IN THIS GENERAL
AREA.
THE MOISTURE PLUME ADVANCES EAST A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT MORE
IMPORTANT THE SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR KVTN-KIML AND
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THIS FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT. THUS TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB.
THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN COVERS MAINLY SHERIDAN COUNTY WHERE
BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KTS. THE RAP AND NAM SUGGESTED
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS AND THEN SOUTH INTO SHANNON COUNTY SD.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING
AND HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE RAP AND
HRRR SHOW A DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH DEEPER MIXING AND HIGHS
NEAR 90 AND THESE MODELS BLENDED WITH THE REST PRODUCES A FCST
FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A SECOND TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AGAIN BY
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK.
SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE WITH EACH WAVE. ON SATURDAY A WAVE WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE. A BRIEF DRY SLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THE SECONDARY WAVE WILL
ARRIVE LATE WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 35 KTS TO SUSTAIN
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
POSSIBLE BREAK IN ACTION SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE GETS
READY FOR THE NEXT WAVE LATER IN THE DAY. FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE
MORE ZONAL...COMPARED TO THE SW FLOW FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS
GOOD WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.50 TO AS HIGH AS 1.75 AHEAD OF
THE WAVE. THE GOOD MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE ADDED SHEAR
FROM THE MID LEVEL FLOW BEING A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY AND TEMPS
INTO THE 80S WITH EARLY SUN. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY/LOW...WITH A GENERALLY
CONSENSUS OF THE LOW TO BE IN EASTERN COLORADO OR WESTERN
KANSAS...SW OF THE CWA. THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE THE ONLY
CONCERN...AS STORMS SHOULD BE GOOD RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AS
THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
TRAIN OF WAVES CONTINUES AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHILE POPS ARE IN EVERY PERIOD IN THE
EXTENDED...THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE ACTION...AND EVEN
SOME CLEARING. ALTHOUGH THE BREAKS MAYBE SHORT LIVED AND TIMING
THEM IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. AS FOR TEMPS...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS...EXPECT VFR CONDS AT BOTH THE KLBF AND
KVTN TERMINALS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AON 20000 FT LIKELY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS EAST INTO WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE KVTN TERMINAL BY MID
EVENING...AND THE KLBF TERMINAL BY LATE EVENING FRIDAY. CIGS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STORMS WILL BE AROUND 5000 FT AGL. VISBYS MAY
DROP DOWN TO 3SM AT THE KVTN TERMINAL. ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISBYS...SOME GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS. WINDS OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 KTS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE AMANDA MOVES EAST INTO WRN NEB THIS AFTN.
THE HRRR IS LIGHTING UP THIS AREA WITH SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 19Z
ON. THIS MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO TOO FAST. MEANWHILE THE RAP SHOWS
K INDICES OVER 40C AND A STORM MOTION AROUND 200 DEGREES AT 8
KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY. 3 HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 2 INCHES SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING. NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH
THIS FORECAST BUT HEAVY RAIN WORDING IS IN PLACE IN THIS GENERAL
AREA.
THE MOISTURE PLUME ADVANCES EAST A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT MORE
IMPORTANT THE SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR KVTN-KIML AND
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THIS FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT. THUS TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB.
THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN COVERS MAINLY SHERIDAN COUNTY WHERE
BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KTS. THE RAP AND NAM SUGGESTED
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS AND THEN SOUTH INTO SHANNON COUNTY SD.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING
AND HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE RAP AND
HRRR SHOW A DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH DEEPER MIXING AND HIGHS
NEAR 90 AND THESE MODELS BLENDED WITH THE REST PRODUCES A FCST
FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A SECOND TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AGAIN BY
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK.
SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE WITH EACH WAVE. ON SATURDAY A WAVE WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE. A BRIEF DRY SLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THE SECONDARY WAVE WILL
ARRIVE LATE WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 35 KTS TO SUSTAIN
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
POSSIBLE BREAK IN ACTION SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE GETS
READY FOR THE NEXT WAVE LATER IN THE DAY. FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE
MORE ZONAL...COMPARED TO THE SW FLOW FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS
GOOD WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.50 TO AS HIGH AS 1.75 AHEAD OF
THE WAVE. THE GOOD MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE ADDED SHEAR
FROM THE MID LEVEL FLOW BEING A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY AND TEMPS
INTO THE 80S WITH EARLY SUN. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY/LOW...WITH A GENERALLY
CONSENSUS OF THE LOW TO BE IN EASTERN COLORADO OR WESTERN
KANSAS...SW OF THE CWA. THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE THE ONLY
CONCERN...AS STORMS SHOULD BE GOOD RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AS
THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
TRAIN OF WAVES CONTINUES AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHILE POPS ARE IN EVERY PERIOD IN THE
EXTENDED...THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE ACTION...AND EVEN
SOME CLEARING. ALTHOUGH THE BREAKS MAYBE SHORT LIVED AND TIMING
THEM IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. AS FOR TEMPS...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS...EXPECT VFR CONDS AT BOTH THE KLBF AND
KVTN TERMINALS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AON 20000 FT LIKELY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS EAST INTO WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE KVTN TERMINAL BY MID
EVENING...AND THE KLBF TERMINAL BY LATE EVENING FRIDAY. CIGS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STORMS WILL BE AROUND 5000 FT AGL. VISBYS MAY
DROP DOWN TO 3SM AT THE KVTN TERMINAL. ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISBYS...SOME GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS. WINDS OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 KTS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1014 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE OVERALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PER THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC. WHILE STORMS MAY BE SUSTAINED
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET...300-400 J/KG OF HAIL CAPE...700-800 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE
WITH 20-25 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY SUPPORT A LOW
END HAIL AND WIND THREAT...DECREASING THE FURTHER EAST THE STORMS
PROPAGATE. HOWEVER...OBSERVED SLOW STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR...NAMELY THE 20 AND INCOMING 21
UTC RUNS...HAVE AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING BROKEN LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THUS...WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR POPS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER BETWEEN 02-04 UTC...SUSTAINED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THE CONVECTION MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AS IT CROSSES
THE BORDER. THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST A CONGEALING LINE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT...FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE STORMS
BEGIN TO PROPAGATE INTO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 06-07 UTC...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT
WITH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS. ACROSS
THE EAST MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT THINKING OF LOW/NIL THUNDERSTORM
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE WITH SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE MODEST. A
MORE POTENT SYSTEM IS FORMING IN MONTANA WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MESOSCALE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
BRING A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT AS A QLCS IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 04-06Z. WILL HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING WINDS
LATER TONIGHT WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST SUNDAY WITH A MORE LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
STATE...EXITING THE DEVILS LAKE AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER (HAIL/TORNADOES) IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. KEPT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MENTION OF SHOWERS DURING THIS
TIME...AND EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 1.00 INCH
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD.
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE REGIME WITH
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND KEEPING
NORTH DAKOTA UNDER A MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THUS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID-WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...LOOKING AT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS MAINLY 45 TO 55.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA HAVE NOW ENTERED
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC...AND HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO KISN AND KDIK TO HIGHLIGHT THE BEST TIMING
AND EXPECTED THREATS AT THIS TIME. STORMS MAY APPROACH KMOT AND
KBIS LATE...AND WILL MENTION AS VCTS/VCSH FOR NOW. IFR CONDITIONS
IN FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KBIS...KDIK AND KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA/JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
632 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
LATEST RADAR INDICATES A NARROW LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS HAS SET UP
FROM FERGUS FALLS TO JUST NORTH OF PARK RAPIDS. THIS IS LIKELY THE
925MB-850MB BOUNDARY...AND ANTICIPATE THE 925MB-850MB CIRCULATION
WILL TRACK ALONG THIS LINE. RADAR ALSO INDICATES AN AREA OF
MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY PROPAGATING
INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA (ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE). 18Z
NAM AND 21Z RAP APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION THE
BEST AND WILL FOLLOW FOR GUIDANCE THIS EVENING. THESE MODELS
INDICATE A NARROW LINE OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM FERGUS FALLS
INTO THE PARK RAPIDS AREA...ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY...WHERE THE
STRONGEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCATED. GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND HIGH PWATS...2-3 INCHES IS VERY REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY...IT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON QPF
AMOUNTS. THIS AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IS JUST
SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YESTERDAY...THUS A FLOOD
WATCH IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME (COULD BE SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES
ISSUED). QPF TOTALS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE TO THE NORTH...WHERE
JUST GENERAL DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
THE ABOVE THINKING IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE POPS TO 100% FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FA...AND INCREASE QPF ALONG THAT 850MB BOUNDARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SFC LOW AT MID AFTERNOON LOCATED JUST NORTH OF HURON SD. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN TONIGHT JUST NORTH OF ST
CLOUD. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND WHERE. VSBL SAT PIX AND SPC SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
HIGHEST PWATS (1.6 IN) IN THAT DULUTH-ST CLOUD- WATERTOWN-PIERRE
SD REGION. SOME HEATING HAS OCCURRED IN CNTRL-SRN MN AS WELL. THUS
AS SFC LOW AND ASSOC 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVE EAST- NORTHEAST WOULD
EXPECT EXPANSION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BEST BET FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD APPEAR TO BE NR OR JUST SOUTH OF STORM TRACK INTO
BEST PWAT/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST HPC QPF HAS AREA OF 1+ INCH IN
6 HRS AREAS FROM BROOKINGS-WATERTOWN SD TO JUST SOUTH OF
ALEXANDRIAN TO LONG PRAIRIE THEN OVERNIGHT MOVING IT TO DULUTH.
THIS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THE WORST FELL
YESTERDAY IN OUR FCST AREA. EXCEPTION IS GRANT COUNTY WHERE 1.35
TO 1.85 INCHS OF RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT. BUT VERY LITTLE HAS FALLEN
TODAY PROPER. NO WATCHES ISSUED AS FEEL BEST BET OF HEAVY RAIN A
TAD SOUTH OF GRANT CO MN... AND PLUS AREAS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
ST CLOUD AND SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA RECEIVED 2 TO 5 INCHES
EARLIER TODAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE.
OTHERWISE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM BAUDETTE TO WEST OF FARGO IS
STARTING TO DIMINISH. BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER
FORMING NR BEMIDJI. SO OVERALL IDEA OF NO RAIN ROX-GFK-COOPERSTOWN
WEST IS GOOD TONIGHT AND HIGHER POPS EAST OF THIS.
LOW AND UPPER WAVE DEPART LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY DRY DAY IN MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS FAR EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY....MAINLY FOR
COORDINATION. ALSO SUNDAY AFTN RAIN CHANCES WILL STAR TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WITH NAM WAY TOO FAST AND
ECMWF MUCH SLOWER. THUS BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF POPS FROM PREV
FCST. UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER AREA WITH ACCOMPANIED SFC
LOW INTO MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOL
THUNDER INTO THE REGION. ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST...BUT KEPT IDEA OF
LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST HALF SUN NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL BE OVER ERN ND MONDAY WITH SFC LOW CLOSER
TO DULUTH. EXPECT A PRETTY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MORE STRATIFORM VS CONVECTIVE. HOWEVER UP TO 1 INCH MAY
FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER
AIR AND CLEARING WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A
BIT OF A BREAK FOR OUR CWA AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SD
AND MISSES US TO OUR SOUTH. SFC LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE NEXT TROUGH DOES NOT START TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MONTANA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE QUIET PATTERN WILL BE VERY
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIGS FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK. STILL A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE
DETAILS...BUT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGING PRECIP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW BUT LOWS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN USUAL WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO KEEP US FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AT
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KFAR AND KBJI THIS EVENING. A DRY
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHICH
SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP SITES VFR FOR AWHILE (EXCEPT KBJI...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD). WINDS BECOME
NEARLY CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR MVFR/IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT...AND POSSIBLY
FOG. KEPT THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND WILL EVALUATE FURTHER WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THESE CONDITIONS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/JR
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
607 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
LATEST RADAR INDICATES A NARROW LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS HAS SET UP
FROM FERGUS FALLS TO JUST NORTH OF PARK RAPIDS. THIS IS LIKELY THE
925MB-850MB BOUNDARY...AND ANTICIPATE THE 925MB-850MB CIRCULATION
WILL TRACK ALONG THIS LINE. RADAR ALSO INDICATES AN AREA OF
MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY PROPAGATING
INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA (ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE). 18Z
NAM AND 21Z RAP APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION THE
BEST AND WILL FOLLOW FOR GUIDANCE THIS EVENING. THESE MODELS
INDICATE A NARROW LINE OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM FERGUS FALLS
INTO THE PARK RAPIDS AREA...ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY...WHERE THE
STRONGEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCATED. GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND HIGH PWATS...2-3 INCHES IS VERY REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY...IT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON QPF
AMOUNTS. THIS AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IS JUST
SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YESTERDAY...THUS A FLOOD
WATCH IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME (COULD BE SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES
ISSUED). QPF TOTALS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE TO THE NORTH...WHERE
JUST GENERAL DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
THE ABOVE THINKING IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE POPS TO 100% FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FA...AND INCREASE QPF ALONG THAT 850MB BOUNDARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SFC LOW AT MID AFTERNOON LOCATED JUST NORTH OF HURON SD. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN TONIGHT JUST NORTH OF ST
CLOUD. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND WHERE. VSBL SAT PIX AND SPC SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
HIGHEST PWATS (1.6 IN) IN THAT DULUTH-ST CLOUD- WATERTOWN-PIERRE
SD REGION. SOME HEATING HAS OCCURRED IN CNTRL-SRN MN AS WELL. THUS
AS SFC LOW AND ASSOC 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVE EAST- NORTHEAST WOULD
EXPECT EXPANSION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BEST BET FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD APPEAR TO BE NR OR JUST SOUTH OF STORM TRACK INTO
BEST PWAT/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST HPC QPF HAS AREA OF 1+ INCH IN
6 HRS AREAS FROM BROOKINGS-WATERTOWN SD TO JUST SOUTH OF
ALEXANDRIAN TO LONG PRAIRIE THEN OVERNIGHT MOVING IT TO DULUTH.
THIS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THE WORST FELL
YESTERDAY IN OUR FCST AREA. EXCEPTION IS GRANT COUNTY WHERE 1.35
TO 1.85 INCHS OF RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT. BUT VERY LITTLE HAS FALLEN
TODAY PROPER. NO WATCHES ISSUED AS FEEL BEST BET OF HEAVY RAIN A
TAD SOUTH OF GRANT CO MN... AND PLUS AREAS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
ST CLOUD AND SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA RECEIVED 2 TO 5 INCHES
EARLIER TODAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE.
OTHERWISE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM BAUDETTE TO WEST OF FARGO IS
STARTING TO DIMINISH. BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER
FORMING NR BEMIDJI. SO OVERALL IDEA OF NO RAIN ROX-GFK-COOPERSTOWN
WEST IS GOOD TONIGHT AND HIGHER POPS EAST OF THIS.
LOW AND UPPER WAVE DEPART LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY DRY DAY IN MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS FAR EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY....MAINLY FOR
COORDINATION. ALSO SUNDAY AFTN RAIN CHANCES WILL STAR TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WITH NAM WAY TOO FAST AND
ECMWF MUCH SLOWER. THUS BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF POPS FROM PREV
FCST. UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER AREA WITH ACCOMPANIED SFC
LOW INTO MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOL
THUNDER INTO THE REGION. ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST...BUT KEPT IDEA OF
LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST HALF SUN NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL BE OVER ERN ND MONDAY WITH SFC LOW CLOSER
TO DULUTH. EXPECT A PRETTY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MORE STRATIFORM VS CONVECTIVE. HOWEVER UP TO 1 INCH MAY
FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER
AIR AND CLEARING WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A
BIT OF A BREAK FOR OUR CWA AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SD
AND MISSES US TO OUR SOUTH. SFC LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE NEXT TROUGH DOES NOT START TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MONTANA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE QUIET PATTERN WILL BE VERY
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIGS FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK. STILL A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE
DETAILS...BUT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGING PRECIP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW BUT LOWS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN USUAL WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO KEEP US FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AT
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
CIGS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS A FRONT SITS OVER THE
REGION AND GENERATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IFR TO MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY AT KBJI...KTVF...AND KFAR WHILE
KGFK AND KDVL REMAIN VFR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AT ALL BUT KDVL...SO MAINLY INCLUDED JUST VICINITY WORDING
FOR NOW. SITES WILL BEGIN TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY GO DOWN A BIT LATER
ON TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS
AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FOG. STILL A LOT OF VARIATION ON WHAT EXACTLY
WILL HAPPEN TOMORROW MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL GO TOWARDS THE DRIER
SIDE AND HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/JR
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1258 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. A LINE OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED
POPS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS LINE. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS LINE IS HEAVY RAIN. RADAR INDICATES WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1
INCH AMOUNTS. VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 1 INCH AN HOUR OR GREATER
COULD LEAD TO QUICK RISES IN LOCAL CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES AND
PONDING ON ROADWAYS. THANKFULLY THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE AT
A QUICK ENOUGH PACE THAT MAJOR FLOOD RELATED ISSUES AREN`T
EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
WILL ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE AS THE LAST FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. OTHERWISE MADE SOME ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO DECREASE POPS FARTHER EAST WHERE MODELS ARE INDICATING
LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING BEHIND FRONT.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW AT KMOT AT 0130Z AND FRONT IS NEARING
KBIS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
CANCELED WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY
LIMITS. TRIMMED WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...ALTHOUGH SOME POST FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS
EASTERN MCKENZIE SOUTHWARD INTO BILLINGS COUNTY WHERE LESS CAPE IS
AVAILABLE BUT STRONGER SHEAR IS IN PLACE. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR LATEST TRENDS AND FOLLOWED HRRR WHICH SEEMED TO HANDLE
CONVECTION ADEQUATELY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 428 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ND. CELLS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND ALONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE
CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH BEST SHEAR LAGS INSTABILITY
AXIS SOMEWHAT. EXPECTING TO BE ENOUGH OVERLAP OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT MAINLY WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CONTINUING AND SLOWLY
MOVING EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. DETAILS BELOW.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH
A STRONG S/WV TROUGH/CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS PUTS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
MONTANA ROCKIES AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE... TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE JUST NOW CROSSING THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AT SIDNEY AND BAKER MONTANA. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED RATHER GUSTY EAST OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS HAVE RANGED FROM 40 TO JUST OVER 50 MPH FROM
MORTON AND BURLEIGH COUNTIES NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY AS
IS...ISSUED ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO AGO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS INTO
CANADA BY 00Z...AS WELL AS RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
TIME.
HIGH RESOLUTION/SHORT TERM MODELS STILL IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE MID
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION ERODES WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX LIFTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MONTANA. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
FIRST PERHAPS OVER THE BLACK HILLS BY 20-21Z...THEN
NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEREAFTER.
THUNDERSTORMS THEN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...WITH STORM COVERAGE INCREASING SLOWLY EAST
WITH THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT.
THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK NOW HAS A SLIGHT RISK AREA ALONG A
NARROW AXIS ALONG THE FRONT...INCLUDING SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING WITH DARK. MLCAPE VALUES ARE RISING
INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BETTER AND MORE
SUPPORTIVE SHEAR RESIDES WEST OF THE FRONT. WILL MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH SHOULD NOTE THE BEST CAPE WILL BE DISPLACED
FROM THE BEST SHEAR. STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE ROBUST WITH MEAN
STORM MOTION 30-40 KTS TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND STORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT...TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBILITY
ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
SFC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL EAST INTO THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS. THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN LIKELY ALONG TO AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF ND FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND A STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CANADA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN IS STILL IN STORE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
FRIDAY EVENING...A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA - INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY - AND INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE SHOULD BE ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE DAYTIME FRIDAY PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI VALLEY OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES
SATURDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT A REINFORCEMENT OF
IMPULSES ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...AND CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN IS LOOKING LIKELY FROM BISMARCK TO CARRINGTON AND SOUTH
FRIDAY THROUGH THE SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE CHARACTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY -
WHETHER CONTINUED TROUGHING OR A CLOSED LOW OVER THE STATE - BUT
REGARDLESS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES BY
EARLY/MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...SO KEPT THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE LONG TERM IS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT CHANCES CONTINUE IN EACH PERIOD OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WILL TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. VCSH/VCTS FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AT KMOT/KBIS AND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS FOR KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
115 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OR SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PLENTY OF THIN CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MADE JUST A FEW
MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS. WATCHING THE STRATUS OVER WRN NY AND
WRN PA...WHETHER IT COULD SNEAK INTO ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN
PA. THE HRRR MODEL IS TRYING TO INDICATE THAT SOME DENSE FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER NW OH...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THAT AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS...MOSTLY THIN...ARE SPILLING OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE TONIGHT. THESE SHOULD FADE AWAY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD. NUDGED THE LOW TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...WHERE MINS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW MID 40S...AS THE AIR MASS DRIES
OUT. OTHERWISE LOWS MOSTLY DOWN TOWARD 50...A LITTLE WARMER AT THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE. FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO SHELTERED AREAS AND
COOL SPOTS AND PROBABLY NOT GET DENSE. NIGHTS ARE SHORT THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NNE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...3-6
KNOTS...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER AT THE LAKESHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A
PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING INTO SUNDAY.
HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA TO SUPPORT RAIN ON MON
BUT THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL BE THE TRIGGER. THE WARM FRONT IS
SHOWN TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA. MEX GUIDANCE HAS SOME AREAS ON MON
MARGINALLY INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. PREFER TO STAY WITH JUST CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM.
AN UPPER TROUGH WORKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES MON
NIGHT THRU WED. SOME MODELS SHOW A DRY PUNCH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
ON TUE BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA AS THE
FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW MAY STALL OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THU.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TO THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS. THIS COULD
SUPPORT SOME MVFR FOG WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT TOL/FDY/AKR/MFD. SOME
HIGH CIRRUS COMING AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER MICHIGAN AND
INTO NORTHERN OHIO SHOULDN`T LIMIT COOLING. CONCERNED ABOUT STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN NY/PA AND SPREADING SW INTO PBZ AREA. THIS STRATUS
COULD CLIP YNG AREA WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE. MODEL
GUIDANCE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY THIS FAR WEST...BUT BASED
ON SATELLITE TRENDS WILL INTRODUCE BKN 900-2000 FT CEILINGS. DRY AIR
ADVECTION IN MIXING FRIDAY WILL LIFT ANY FOG/STRATUS BY MID MORNING.
VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINDER OF
FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE MORE WITH SUNSET THEN STAY FAIRLY
LIGHT THRU SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKES FOR SUN SO WINDS
SHOULD TURN SE THEN SOUTH TO SW FOR MON WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WHICH LOOK TO CONTINUE ON TUE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1236 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT OR SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PLENTY OF THIN CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MADE JUST A FEW
MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS. WATCHING THE STRATUS OVER WRN NY AND
WRN PA...WHETHER IT COULD SNEAK INTO ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN
PA. THE HRRR MODEL IS TRYING TO INDICATE THAT SOME DENSE FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER NW OH...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THAT AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS...MOSTLY THIN...ARE SPILLING OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE TONIGHT. THESE SHOULD FADE AWAY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD. NUDGED THE LOW TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...WHERE MINS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW MID 40S...AS THE AIR MASS DRIES
OUT. OTHERWISE LOWS MOSTLY DOWN TOWARD 50...A LITTLE WARMER AT THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE. FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO SHELTERED AREAS AND
COOL SPOTS AND PROBABLY NOT GET DENSE. NIGHTS ARE SHORT THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NNE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...3-6
KNOTS...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER AT THE LAKESHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A
PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING INTO SUNDAY.
HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA TO SUPPORT RAIN ON MON
BUT THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL BE THE TRIGGER. THE WARM FRONT IS
SHOWN TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA. MEX GUIDANCE HAS SOME AREAS ON MON
MARGINALLY INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. PREFER TO STAY WITH JUST CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM.
AN UPPER TROUGH WORKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES MON
NIGHT THRU WED. SOME MODELS SHOW A DRY PUNCH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
ON TUE BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA AS THE
FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW MAY STALL OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THU.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
COOL DOWN NEAR THE DEW POINT AT YOUNGSTOWN AND COULD CAUSE SOME MVFR
FOG TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN
THE VISIBILITY. MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE MORE WITH SUNSET THEN STAY FAIRLY
LIGHT THRU SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKES FOR SUN SO WINDS
SHOULD TURN SE THEN SOUTH TO SW FOR MON WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WHICH LOOK TO CONTINUE ON TUE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...TSTMS LINING UP ALONG A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES
EXTENDING WWD FROM THE SMOKIES AND ELBERT CO GA. OF COURSE...THIS
CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS MINIMAL COVERAGE WITHIN OUR FA. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO REALLY SAY WITH CONFIDENCE WHAT IS FOCUSING THE CONVECTION. THE
SRN BAND DOES APPEAR TO BE ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE...PROBABLY
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT. MEAN ELY FLOW IS CARRYING THE CELLS AWAY
FROM OUR FA...AND MOST OF OUR TERRITORY NOW LIES IN THE COOL/DRY
SECTOR. I ADJUSTED POPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS REALLY TO JUST
HOLD THE COVERAGE STEADY IN THESE AREAS AND GRADUALLY START TO
FOCUS POPS ALONG THE SE FACING BLUE RIDGE. OVERALL THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT OVERNIGHT LOOKS VERY LOW NORTH OF THE TRUE FRONT. UNDER
PERSISTENT E-SE LLVL WINDS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND BLUE RIDGE...THE
MESO MODELS /NOTABLY THE LAST FEW HRRR CYCLES/ SHOW WEAK CELLS
CONTINUING TO FIRE OVERNIGHT IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS
SAID...PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH A WARM LAYER ACTING AS A
CAP AND POOR LAPSE RATES OVERALL. ENOUGH OF A SATURATED LAYER WILL
DEVELOP THAT SOME NONCONVECTIVE SPRINKLES COULD RESULT. AN ISOLD
TO WIDELY SCT MENTION IS JUSTIFIED ALONG THE SRN ESCARPMENT. I
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS A TAD WARMER OVERNIGHT PER SHORT TERM MODEL
BLEND...GIVEN WARMER DEWPOINTS AT THIS HR THAN ANTICIPATED BY THE
PREV FCST TEMPS.
THRU SUNDAY...THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD CLOSES OFF AN ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH SUNDAY THAT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION EVEN FURTHER. WILL NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THERE WILL STILL BE A WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY COOLER IN
SPITE OF MORE SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WAS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SHIFT EAST...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
THEN SETTLES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT
SHOULD BE ON OUR FAR WESTERN FLANK IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY OR
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION...NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...SHOULD WANE VERY QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND LITTLE FORCING NOTED OTHERWISE.
A TEMPORARY STAGNANT PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS BOTH UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE FEATURES SHIFT SLIGHTLY SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO OUR COUNTIES ALONG THE NC/TN STATE LINE...
WHERE SOME PRIMARILY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WE HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THAT AREA AS FOCUSED AS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND WHERE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS NOTED. ELSEWHERE
WE WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST MONDAY...AND HAVE BEEN A OPTIMISTIC
WITH SKY COVER...ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUDS MAY BE NOTED NEAR THE
OLD BOUNDARY PROBABLY LINGERING IN NE GEORGIA.
ONCE AGAIN A QUICK END TO ISOLATED HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE AN OVERNIGHT UPTICK IN A
MOISTENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST FACING MOUNTAIN TERRAIN.
THIS IS PROBABLY THE START OF A FEW LATE NIGHT/WEE HOUR SHOWERS...IN
A WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFTING PATTERN...AGAIN LOCATED TOWARD THE NC/TN
BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE FA HOLDS TO
A DRY PATTERN.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING HEIGHT FALLS REACHING PARTS OF OUR
FA TUESDAY...COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING WIND SHIFT LINE AND A VORT
LOBE PIVOTING THROUGH THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAKE A JUMP
BACK TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES...AS RICH MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NEWD.
WE HAVE STARTED POPS QUICKLY IN WESTERN NC/NE GA TUESDAY MORNING...
AND MOVED THEM INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...
AS FORCING WORKS ON THE INCREASINGLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. INSTABILITY
VARIES CONSIDERABLY LOOKING AT PLAN VIEW MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT
INFORMATION...BUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CARRY THUNDER.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND OF TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
WHICH FITS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND LATEST SET OF MOS
GUIDE INFORMATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE USA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY A
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND OVER THE
SE USA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE A FRONT REMAINS IN THE POTOMAC AND
OH RIVER VALLEYS. LITTLE CHANGE IS SEEN FOR OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHILE A A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO VA...AND
SLOW MOVING WARM WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. BY
SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST USA...
WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OH AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEY.
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WARM...HUMID AIR MASS. AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY EACH DAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR MID SUMMER NORMAL...WHICH
IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SOLIDLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z
MON. DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN BEHIND A SLOW-MOVING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. THOUGH ELY FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP CLOUDS ACRS THE FOOTHILLS
LATER TONIGHT...KCLT IS PROBABLY FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO REMAIN VFR IF A
CIG EVEN DEVELOPS. NEAR CROSSWINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT...BUT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THEY MOST LIKELY
WILL REMAIN S OF E. OCNL VARIATION ACROSS 090 IS LIKELY HOWEVER.
WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TOWARD SE BY LATE MRNG...AND FEW-SCT LOW VFR
CU ARE LIKELY TO BREAK OUT.
ELSEWHERE...THE FRONT HAS NOT TOTALLY DEPARTED THE REGION...
BASICALLY REMAINING ACRS THE SW NC MTNS AND THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY AS OF 00Z SUN. THE ADJACENT AREAS HAVE THUS YET TO FULLY DRY
OUT ALOFT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY EARLY SUN MRNG
AGAINST THE SE-FACING BLUE RIDGE. GUID CONSENSUS BRINGS MVFR CIGS TO
KGSP/KGMU AND IFR TO KAVL...AND THIS IS LIKELY SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC
GIVEN WIDESPREAD IFR SATURDAY MRNG IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH CIGS EVENTUALLY
SCATTERING OVER ALL THE SITES DURING THE AFTN. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 81% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 84% HIGH 80% HIGH 80% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 94% HIGH 94% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 91% HIGH 85% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
429 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE
BY MIDWEEK...WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE TO STEADILY SPREAD
OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FAVORED
PROPAGATION DIRECTION SEEMS TO BE SOUTH DUE TO THE SLY WINDS IN THE
LOWEST COUPLE THSD FT PER KGSP/TCLT VWP. THUS THE AREAS DIRECTLY
SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE. CONVECTION MAY
STILL DEVELOP IN THE CHARLOTTE AREA NOW THAT CIRRUS HAVE MOVED
OUT. OUTFLOW FROM THE CLUSTER MOVING SWWD FROM THE TRIAD AREA
STANDS A GOOD SHOT OF KICKING THINGS OFF DESPITE UNFAVORABLE E-SE
LLVL FLOW. STILL EXPECTING A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHO
POTENTIAL NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY...AND SLOW MOVING STORMS
SUGGEST ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
ONE IS HARD-PRESSED TO IDENTIFY THE REMAINS OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT SHOULD BE STRUNG OUT NW TO SE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...
SUCH THAT IT IS HARD TO SAY IF THIS FEATURE WILL EVEN PLAY ANY ROLE
IN ORGANIZING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SUBTLE
CHANGES ARE NOTED AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WHILE THE PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY. A WEAK VORT LOBE OVERHEAD TODAY WILL KEEP
THE ENVIRONMENT NOT UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO KEEP GOING AS LONG
AS INSTABILITY PERSISTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN FORCE NEW
STORMS...GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING. THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP SOME COVERAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE OWING TO A WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...SO THE FCST RETAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS DO A MORE CONCERTED EFFORT IN IDENTIFYING A SW
TO NE GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY THAT
REPRESENTS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
IDENTIFIABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER BETWEEN NE GEORGIA AND
WESTERN SC...WHICH SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY...TO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC WHICH SHOULD HAVE A STRONGER NE WIND
ADVECTING COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION
AND KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM GA AND THE CAROLINAS...TO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SE TX...AND A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW WILL BE
WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER TX
FILLS...AND THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BEHIND IT. AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP MOIST
UPSLOPE LIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...SUPPORTING CONTINUING
PRECIPITATION THERE....WHILE LINGERING INSTABILITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF SUPPORTS PRECIPIATION IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER INTO GA ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
THE CAROLINAS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS WITH COOLER SURFACE
AIR MOVING IN.
MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...ALLOWING WARM MOIST ADVECTION FORM THE GULF TO
REACH NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
SPREAD EAST AS A RESULT...AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AS THE COOLER AIR MASS SETTLE
IN...UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN WARM ADVECTION ENSUES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
DEAMPLIFIED PATTERN...WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...
AND MOORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE REMNANTS
OF A COLD FRONT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTOLYTIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION LONG BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY LEAVES THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER DRYING BEHIND IT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER PERSISTING IN
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR MID SUMMER NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...DEEP CONVECTION WILL FIRE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LIKELY NEAR KCLT IN A WINDOW FROM 21Z TO 01Z
BASED MOSTLY ON THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW...AS WELL AS OUTFLOW SPREADING
SWWD FROM THE TRIAD AREA. STORMS COULD LINGER BEYOND THAT BUT WILL
BE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OR SE INTO THE
EVENING AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LATER
TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
PIEDMONT SHOULD FORCE EITHER A LOW CLOUD CEILING OR LIGHT FOG. WENT
WITH A STRATUS DECK IN THE LOW END OF THE MVFR RANGE ALTHO IFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AROUND SUNRISE. THE CEILING WILL RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY. EXPECT A NE WIND ON
SATURDAY MORNING ONCE AGAIN.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SIMILAR TO KCLT IN MOST REGARDS WITH
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN DETAIL. ANY PLACES WITH RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY TO GET A PERIOD OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL DRYING WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...
WITH MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 81% HIGH 94% HIGH 81% HIGH 93%
KGSP HIGH 81% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 82%
KAVL HIGH 92% HIGH 93% HIGH 91% HIGH 84%
KHKY MED 78% HIGH 85% HIGH 95% HIGH 90%
KGMU MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 90%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 69% HIGH 81%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE
BY MIDWEEK...WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE TO STEADILY SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIN VEIL OF HIGHER CLOUDS OVER
THE CLT METRO AREA SHOULD MOVE OUT AND ALLOW MORE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THAT AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
STILL EXPECTING A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHO POTENTIAL NOT AS
GREAT AS YESTERDAY...AND SLOW MOVING STORMS SUGGEST ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.
ONE IS HARD-PRESSED TO IDENTIFY THE REMAINS OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT SHOULD BE STRUNG OUT NW TO SE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...
SUCH THAT IT IS HARD TO SAY IF THIS FEATURE WILL EVEN PLAY ANY ROLE
IN ORGANIZING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SUBTLE
CHANGES ARE NOTED AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WHILE THE PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY. A WEAK VORT LOBE OVERHEAD TODAY WILL KEEP
THE ENVIRONMENT NOT UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO KEEP GOING AS LONG
AS INSTABILITY PERSISTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN FORCE NEW
STORMS...GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING. THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP SOME COVERAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE OWING TO A WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...SO THE FCST RETAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS DO A MORE CONCERTED EFFORT IN IDENTIFYING A SW
TO NE GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY THAT
REPRESENTS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
IDENTIFIABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER BETWEEN NE GEORGIA AND
WESTERN SC...WHICH SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY...TO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC WHICH SHOULD HAVE A STRONGER NE WIND
ADVECTING COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION
AND KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM GA AND THE CAROLINAS...TO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SE TX...AND A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW WILL BE
WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER TX
FILLS...AND THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BEHIND IT. AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP MOIST
UPSLOPE LIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...SUPPORTING CONTINUING
PRECIPITATION THERE....WHILE LINGERING INSTABILITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF SUPPORTS PRECIPIATION IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER INTO GA ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
THE CAROLINAS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS WITH COOLER SURFACE
AIR MOVING IN.
MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...ALLOWING WARM MOIST ADVECTION FORM THE GULF TO
REACH NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
SPREAD EAST AS A RESULT...AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AS THE COOLER AIR MASS SETTLE
IN...UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN WARM ADVECTION ENSUES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
DEAMPLIFIED PATTERN...WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...
AND MOORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE REMNANTS
OF A COLD FRONT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTOLYTIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION LONG BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY LEAVES THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER DRYING BEHIND IT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER PERSISTING IN
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR MID SUMMER NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CEILING SLOW TO LIFT OUT OF MVFR RANGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT LOOKS AS IF THE MVFR CEILING WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
21Z OR SO WHEN HEATING WILL EITHER LIFT IT TO VFR OR CONVECTION WILL
SCATTER IT OUT. DEEP CONVECTION WILL FIRE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO
THE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LIKELY NEAR KCLT IN A WINDOW FROM 21Z TO
01Z BASED MOSTLY ON THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW. STORMS COULD LINGER BEYOND
THAT BUT WILL BE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OR
SE INTO THE EVENING AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LATER
TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
PIEDMONT SHOULD FORCE EITHER A LOW CLOUD CEILING OR LIGHT FOG. WENT
WITH A STRATUS DECK IN THE LOW END OF THE MVFR RANGE ALTHO IFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AROUND SUNRISE. THE CEILING WILL RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY. EXPECT A NE WIND ON
SATURDAY MORNING ONCE AGAIN.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SIMILAR TO KCLT IN MOST REGARDS WITH
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN DETAIL. ANY PLACES WITH RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY TO GET A PERIOD OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL DRYING WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...
WITH MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT MED 71% HIGH 100% HIGH 84% HIGH 88%
KGSP MED 70% HIGH 100% HIGH 85% MED 75%
KAVL HIGH 91% HIGH 97% HIGH 87% HIGH 83%
KHKY MED 66% HIGH 91% HIGH 88% HIGH 88%
KGMU MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 80%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 75% MED 73%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE
BY MIDWEEK...WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WAS UNDERWAY
ELSEWHERE OVER THE PIEDMONT. COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
ALTHO POTENTIAL NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY...AND SLOW MOVING STORMS
SUGGEST ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD THREAT. TEMPS LOOK OKAY.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ISN/T MUCH OF A COLD FRONT. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS ONLY A VERY GRADUAL GRADIENT IN TEMP AND DEWPOINT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS FOUND
AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. YESTERDAY/S RELATIVELY STRONG
TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NC APPEARED TO HAVE MORE
TO DO WITH A CLOUD COVER GRADIENT THAN BONAFIDE BAROCLINITY. IN
FACT...THERE ISN/T EVEN MUCH OF A DISCERNIBLE WIND SHIFT ZONE ACROSS
THE REGION ATTM. ALL THIS IS TO SAY THAT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF
A ROLE THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE IN FOCUSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SEEM TO BE HIGHLIGHTING TYPICAL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF INITIATION
THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING CURRENTS AND COLD POOL PROPAGATION
MECHANISMS WOULD FAVOR SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION ORIGINATING
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THAT PART OF THE PIEDMONT
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
THIS ALSO HAPPENS TO BE WHERE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOCUSING A
BROAD AREA OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BETTER
DEFINED LATER TODAY...IF CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH LINGERS LONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD DOWN TEMPS/STRENGTHEN THE THERMAL GRADIENT. ALL
THINGS CONSIDERED...LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED FROM THESE AREAS
WEST TO THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER THICKNESSES AND MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
SUPPORT MAXES ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER THAN THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALSO
ACT TO LIMIT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT...SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED TO A HANDFUL OF MARGINAL PULSE SEVERE
STORMS IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE (BUT MOIST) AND VERY WEAKLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. RELATIVELY SLOW CELL MOVEMENT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING (ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED) WILL YIELD A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TOO LOCALIZED TO ENTERTAIN THOUGHTS OF A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN THE MOIST AIR MASS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE DRIER AIR
WILL FINALLY BEGIN FILTERING IN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...THE WEAKLY FORCED/WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT
SUPPORT ACTIVITY FOR TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO SLIDE SOUTH
ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THIS ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAVE A BAND OF UNSTABLE AIR IN THE
VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 85 SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDLANDS...LEADING TO
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THUS...WILL HIGHLIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONTS INCREASING TO
SOLID CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER SOUTHWEST ADJACENT TO MOISTURE
AXIS.
FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST YIELDING INITIAL NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS INCREASING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGIONS
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
UPSTATE AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC AND NORTHEAST GA AS WEAK
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE POPS WILL TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF NC LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD WILL INITIALIZE
MONDAY MORNING UNDER DEEP LAYER RIDGING. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OF
THE NC/SC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ESTABLISHING ITSELF AS A BERMUDA HIGH BY
MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE EJECTS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW
ALOFT. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT TO
OUR NORTH. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL YIELD INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP
ALLOWING FOR ATLANTIC...AND EVENTUALLY GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH MIDWEEK...THIS ADVECTION
WILL ALSO MAGNIFY LEADING TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THUS...FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS CHANCE LEVELS POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY BEFORE
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD ON A DIURNAL TREND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES TOPPING 1.5 INCHES...THUS
THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG WITH OTHER CONVECTIVE
THREATS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD WILL
MODERATE AMIDST THE INCREASING WAA LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CEILING SLOW TO LIFT OUT OF MVFR RANGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT LOOKS AS IF THE MVFR CEILING WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
21Z OR SO WHEN HEATING WILL EITHER LIFT IT TO VFR OR CONVECTION WILL
SCATTER IT OUT. DEEP CONVECTION WILL FIRE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO
THE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LIKELY NEAR KCLT IN A WINDOW FROM 21Z TO
01Z BASED MOSTLY ON THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW. STORMS COULD LINGER BEYOND
THAT BUT WILL BE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OR
SE INTO THE EVENING AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LATER
TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
PIEDMONT SHOULD FORCE EITHER A LOW CLOUD CEILING OR LIGHT FOG. WENT
WITH A STRATUS DECK IN THE LOW END OF THE MVFR RANGE ALTHO IFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AROUND SUNRISE. THE CEILING WILL RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY. EXPECT A NE WIND ON
SATURDAY MORNING ONCE AGAIN.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SIMILAR TO KCLT IN MOST REGARDS WITH
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN DETAIL. ANY PLACES WITH RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY TO GET A PERIOD OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL DRYING WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...
WITH MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT MED 71% HIGH 100% HIGH 84% HIGH 88%
KGSP MED 70% HIGH 100% HIGH 85% MED 75%
KAVL HIGH 91% HIGH 97% HIGH 87% HIGH 83%
KHKY MED 66% HIGH 91% HIGH 88% HIGH 88%
KGMU MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 80%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 75% MED 73%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM...REMNANT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION...FIRING ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH FROM THE MIDLANDS...HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT. EVEN IT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND...AS OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS DEVELOP
FARTHER NW ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TO REARRANGE POPS BASED UPON THESE TRENDS
AND EXPECTATIONS OF OVERALL WEAKENING/DIMINISHING COVERAGE DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
1000 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER MAINLY THE
PIEDMONT DUE TO ENHANCED LLVL CONVERGENCE...NOT ONLY DUE TO THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BUT ALSO APPARENTLY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTERCEPTS THE COLD POOL. WINDS HAVE LARGELY TURNED EAST AT THE SFC
ACRS THE NE HALF OF THE FA...BUT KGSP/TCLT VWP SHOWS S TO SE WINDS
IN THE 2-5 KFT AGL LAYER. SOME CELLS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE. HRRR CONTINUES TO BE THE BEST
NEAR TERM MODEL AND GENERALLY SUPPORTS A SLOW DECLINE IN ACTIVITY
THRU THE NIGHT...WITH OCNL REDEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT COMES IN. I
REVISED POPS AGAIN TO HIGHLIGHT THE DIMINISHING ACTIVITY IN OUR
EAST...BUT STILL CHC POPS EVERYWHERE WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY ALBEIT NOT WIDE COVERAGE.
FLOOD WARNINGS/ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
WHILE THE CHARLOTTE AREA PRODUCTS MIGHT BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON
TIME...CELLS ARE NOW MOVING SWD INTO OUR NRN TIER OF ZONES WHICH
WILL PROLONG THE THREAT IN THE NRN GROUP.
AS OF 300 PM...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A SURFACE REFLECTION
ALREADY SHOWS IN THE CAPE ANALYSIS NUDGING INTO THE NW
PIEDMONT...WITH LOW CLOUDINESS AND STABLE AIR IN N CENTRAL NC. A
SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE THIS BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING.
THE MODELS DO NOT REALLY SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING
BUT THIS COULD BE MASKED BY THE DIURNAL CONVERGENCE TOWARD THE MTNS.
IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NC BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS IF THE
BOUNDARY MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
THAT COULD ANCHOR STORMS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONCERN TO ENTERTAIN A WATCH. EXPECT A DIURNAL REDUCTION IN STORM
COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SPITE OF THE BOUNDARY...SO SOME OF THE
LATEST SREF WAS BLENDED INTO THE POP. ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP YET AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT WE MIGHT
BE COVERED WITH A LOW CLOUD CEILING BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE
THAT WILL CUT DOWN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. TEMPS SHOULD
BE A BIT COOLER WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...ON FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW OVER LA AND
AND UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE RIDGE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...AND OVER GA ON SUNDAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS SC ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY VERY SLOWLY DECREASING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASING AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...MAINTAINING A THREAT OF CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. DRIER
AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WILL REDUCE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE MODEL SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE BANKED
UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL PERSIST...AND SMALL POPS
WILL BE CARRIED THERE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...UNTIL
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...ON MONDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
FL TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESS TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE
A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE PATTERN
DEAMPLIFIES BY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NATION...AND WEAK FLAT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST...A PATTERN
THAT PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE COASTAL VA AND NC ON
MONDAY...AND ALTHOUGH GULF INFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS...THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SUPPORTING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SE AND OFFSHORE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...GULF INFLOW WEAKENS...BUT SPREADS EAST...COVERING NE GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION REMAINING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...EVEN AS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES INCREASE TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM NEAR NORMAL VALUES...TO ABOVE NORMAL...
EVEN AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT...AS COOL NE FLOW VEERS TO THE SW...
AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE KCLT/KAND/KHKY
TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE OCCASIONAL MVFR
VISBY RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE...A VERY UNCERTAIN/LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS...PRIMARILY CONCERNING CIGS...AS
GUIDANCE AND WEAK FLOW REGIME WITHIN MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
INDICATES LOW CLOUD FORMATION (IF ANY) WILL BE A RESULT OF VERY
SUBTLE PROCESSES. THIS IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF
RATHER THICK MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY PLAY A MAJOR
ROLE IN HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. HOWEVER...WE
ARE ALREADY SEEING POCKETS OF LOW CIGS DEVELOP WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ANY DISCERNIBLE PATTERN TO WHERE/WHY THEY ARE DEVELOPING.
OUR BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO MAKE HEAVY USE OF TEMPOS FOR IFR OR
LOW MVFR CIGS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FOUR HOURS. DO THINK THE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR VISBY AT MOST TERMINALS...AND AN OCCL IFR VISBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESP IN MTN VALLEYS AND WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS/VCSH WARRANTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH CATEGORICAL -SHRA BY MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT E/NE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL DRYING WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
DAY...WITH MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 81% HIGH 81% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 87% HIGH 96% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KHKY MED 68% HIGH 84% HIGH 100% HIGH 97%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
715 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR JUST ABOUT CLEAR OF CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR. THE CLOSEST
CELL IS JUST NORTH OF CHATTANOOGA BUT IS WEAKENING. WOULD CONSIDER
DROPPING POPS COMPLETELY BUT THE MODEL TREND IS FOR MOISTURE DEPTH
LEVELS TO INCREASE THROUGH 12Z. HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THERE SHOULD BE
SOME ISOL TO SCT CONVECTION THAT REDEVELOPS TOWARD 12Z.
OTW...CLOUD COVERAGE AND TEMPS LOOK OK FOR THE DURATION OF
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...WHILE PESKY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. DEEPER MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-STATE LATER SUNDAY AND WHILE
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT REALLY POSSIBLE ANYTIME...SUNDAY AFTERNOON
LOOKS MOST LIKELY FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
OVERNIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP CKV/CSV AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 154 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE TODAY.
IT WAS ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
LIKELY...BUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS. THE ACTIVITY FORMED FIRST OVER THE PLATEAU...AND THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING.
MID TN WAS BETWEEN A COUPLE OF PROMINENT WX SYSTEMS. ONE WAS A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND THE OTHER WAS
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A NICE DRY AIR MASS THAT COVERED THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THIS DRY AIR WAS EXTENDING INTO OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES...HELPING REDUCE THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THERE. THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE DISTINCT AIR MASSES SEEMED TO BE
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REST OF MID TN.
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 50 PERCENT THE NEXT
2 DAYS...BUT THESE POPS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE RAISED INTO THE
LIKELY RANGE. THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST...ALLOWING A
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF MID TN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES WITH FAIRLY SLOW
STORM MOTION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...ADDING LIFT AND INSTABILITY. THE MAIN TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT SOME OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS WELL.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY PICK UP 2 OR 3 INCHES.
THE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND STORMS WILL KEEP HIGH UNDER
90 MOST AREAS...WITH VERY MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS.
FOR TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANGES IN
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL DRYING. THIS WILL CHANGE OUR MAIN
THUNDERSTORM CONCERN FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD AS
MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...PERHAPS
REACHING THE LOWER 90S FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT...ALTHOUGH WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THAT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL
SPREAD EAST TO WEST ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND DROP TOWARD MID TN.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MID TN WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT IT HAS LOST ITS IMPACT
ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE`S WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER, AN UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR EAST HAS STRENGTHENED SO THAT WE KEEP OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE.
LOOK FOR MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TODAY, WHICH WILL HANDLE WITH
VCSH REMARKS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
404 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
COOLER...MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC BASED CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMB TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH LIS AROUND MINUS 4
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND LIFE SPAN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN SHARP CONTRAST...MARINE AMS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO ERODE AND HOLDING TEMPERATURES
DOWN. HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH SUN ANGLE AND MIXING WILL BREAK UP THE
LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED THAT
WEST EDGE OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP BEFORE SUNSET.
DECIDED TO PLAY POPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST BASICALLY WEST OF I77. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...KEPT ISOLATED SCATTERED POPS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. THE SWODY2 HAS PUSHED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY. MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT OR LIFT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE A CHALLENGE WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER. RAISED HIGHS UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE DELMARVA SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
HIGH THEN BECOMES POSITIONED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.
EXPECTING A DRY FINISH TO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITON TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY OR UNTIL THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE EAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHALLOW UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...BKN SORT OF CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SCATTERED SUNDAY. BY MONDAY TENDENCY WILL BE FOR
MODERATE CU FORMATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGS INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND HIGHER CAPE.
H85 TEMPS OF 8C IN THE VA PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND CLOSER
TO 15C ON MONDAY. SUNDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A WINNER IN TERMS
OF COMFORT FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NORTH OF THIS
RIDGE...A MORE ZONAL TYPE PATTERN WILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN CONUS...ALTHOUGH VERY NOISY...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIPPLING EAST WITHIN THE FASTER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL FAVOR A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE NORMAL...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THE PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A
DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOTHING ORGANIZED PER SE
OR LASTING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME...BUT MAINLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IF THERE IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO BEING ORGANIZED IT WILL
MOST LIKELY COME FROM SOMETHING GENERATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT...THIS
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN
THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR A SQUALL LINE. OUTSIDE OF
THIS UPSTREAM THREAT...LOCAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES IN
THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WIND
CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE GREATEST. WITH WESTERLY SORT OF WINDS
ALOFT...A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE PIEDMONT WHICH
WILL AID IN SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE TOO.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AT 1739Z KFCX 88D SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FORM MAINLY WEST OF I77 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR.
IN THE EAST...MOIST EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW KEEPING IFR CIGS
FROM LYH TO SOUTH BOSTON EAST. WHILE IN THE WEST...SCT TO BKN
MVFR CLOUDS AT TAF SITES.
DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY WEST OF A BLF-SIF LINE WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE DEVELOP
TONIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR IN DENSE
FOG...SUCH AS LWB. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER AFT
15Z...BUT WITH E-NE FLOW EXPECT POCKETS OF HZ EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO SCT-BKN MVFR/VFR SATURDAY.
WINDS...NE-ESE AT SPEEDS OF 5-7KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
153 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY...MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
COOLER...MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA.
RAISED TEMPERATURES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON FOR LESS
CLOUDS.
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWEST
TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS PUSHING MOISTURE UP MOUNTAINS WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF REGION. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED MIXING HAS THIN OUT CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST...WHILE LOW
CLOUDS HOLDING IN THE EAST. DECREASED CLOUD COVER ON THE WESTERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH SFC OBS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW INDICATED SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF I77 THIS AFTERNOON. THE SWODY1
HIGHLIGHTED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. WITH CAUTION WILL HOLD
WITH CURRENT HIGHS AND WATCH TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING FOR
MODIFICATIONS.
AS OF 445 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR A BLF-SIF LINE. COOLER...MARITIME
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH WET GROUND FROM LATE DAY
RAINFALL THU HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. SO FAR...THE STRATUS HAS BEEN
MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE FOG. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...AND SHOULD BE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SAT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN TWO WEATHER CHANGES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
COMPARED TO THU. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR SW VA/NW
NC...WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE/WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA...AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS/BLUE
RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SPOTTY -DZ MAY
OCCUR IN AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT MOSTLY IT WILL JUST BE
CLOUDS.
THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...BROUGHT ON BY THE CLOUDS AND COOL
EASTERLY FLOW...WILL BE THE MAX TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS MOS APPEARS WAY TOO WARM. THE AIR
MASS UPSTREAM IS QUITE COOL FOR LATE MAY WITH TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR 50 ACROSS NORTHERN VA. FRANKLY...PERSISTENCE FOR
TEMPS IN WEDGE AREAS MIGHT BE THE BEST WAY TO GO TODAY...BUT HAVE
USED A BLEND OF THE COLDER MODELS...NAMELY MET MOS AND ECMWF
MOS...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENCE AND EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL
BE VERY SLOW/TOUGH TO ERODE TODAY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX T GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
GOING 1-2 CATEGORIES COLDER THAN MOST MOS GUIDANCE. MIN T TONIGHT
LESS OF AN ISSUE AS CLOUDS AND LITTLE T/TD SPREAD WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVELY MILD MIN TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE WEDGE. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IF DRIER AIR ADVECTING SWWD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REACHES
THE PIEDMONT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT TO MIN T SAT
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SINKING SOUTH INTO THE
DELMARVA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING A DRY AND POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE
EAST COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OUT TO
SEA...AND UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE ENTIRE EASTERN US.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHILE THE WEDGE REMAINS
THIS WEEKEND...THEN BURN OFF DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS FINALLY VEER TO THE SW BY MONDAY...DELIVERING
MORE INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SE WEST VIRGINIA BY LATE DAY. H85 TEMPS MAY FALL TO 8C IN
THE VA PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY...BUT RAPID WAA ON SW WINDS MONDAY WILL
PUSH H85 TEMPS BACK TO 15C ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK FEATURES A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NORTH OF THIS RIDGE...A
MORE ZONAL TYPE PATTERN WILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CONUS...ALTHOUGH VERY NOISY...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY
RIPPLING EAST WITHIN THE FASTER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL FAVOR A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE NORMAL...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THE PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A
DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOTHING ORGANIZED PER SE
OR LASTING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME...BUT MAINLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IF THERE IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO BEING ORGANIZED IF WILL
MOST LIKELY COME FROM SOMETHING GENERATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT...THIS
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
FORM OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR A SQUALL LINE. OUTSIDE OF THIS
UPSTREAM THREAT...LOCAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WIND CONVERGENCE
WILL BE THE GREATEST. IF THE WINDS ALOFT BECOME PURE WESTERLY...A
LEE TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE PIEDMONT WHICH COULD AID IN SCATTERED
LATE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE TOO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AT 1739Z KFCX 88D SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FORM MAINLY WEST OF I77 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR.
IN THE EAST...MOIST EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW KEEPING IFR CIGS
FROM LYH TO SOUTH BOSTON EAST. WHILE IN THE WEST...SCT TO BKN
MVFR CLOUDS AT TAF SITES.
DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY WEST OF A BLF-SIF LINE WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE DEVELOP
TONIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR IN DENSE
FOG...SUCH AS LWB. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER AFT
15Z...BUT WITH E-NE FLOW EXPECT POCKETS OF HZ EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO SCT-BKN MVFR/VFR SATURDAY.
WINDS...NE-ESE AT SPEEDS OF 5-7KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1217 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY...MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
COOLER...MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA.
RAISED TEMPERATURES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON FOR LESS
CLOUDS.
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWEST
TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS PUSHING MOISTURE UP MOUNTAINS WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF REGION. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED MIXING HAS THIN OUT CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST...WHILE LOW
CLOUDS HOLDING IN THE EAST. DECREASED CLOUD COVER ON THE WESTERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH SFC OBS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW INDICATED SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF I77 THIS AFTERNOON. THE SWODY1
HIGHLIGHTED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. WITH CAUTION WILL HOLD
WITH CURRENT HIGHS AND WATCH TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING FOR
MODIFICATIONS.
AS OF 445 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR A BLF-SIF LINE. COOLER...MARITIME
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH WET GROUND FROM LATE DAY
RAINFALL THU HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. SO FAR...THE STRATUS HAS BEEN
MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE FOG. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...AND SHOULD BE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SAT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN TWO WEATHER CHANGES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
COMPARED TO THU. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR SW VA/NW
NC...WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE/WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA...AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS/BLUE
RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SPOTTY -DZ MAY
OCCUR IN AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT MOSTLY IT WILL JUST BE
CLOUDS.
THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...BROUGHT ON BY THE CLOUDS AND COOL
EASTERLY FLOW...WILL BE THE MAX TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS MOS APPEARS WAY TOO WARM. THE AIR
MASS UPSTREAM IS QUITE COOL FOR LATE MAY WITH TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR 50 ACROSS NORTHERN VA. FRANKLY...PERSISTENCE FOR
TEMPS IN WEDGE AREAS MIGHT BE THE BEST WAY TO GO TODAY...BUT HAVE
USED A BLEND OF THE COLDER MODELS...NAMELY MET MOS AND ECMWF
MOS...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENCE AND EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL
BE VERY SLOW/TOUGH TO ERODE TODAY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX T GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
GOING 1-2 CATEGORIES COLDER THAN MOST MOS GUIDANCE. MIN T TONIGHT
LESS OF AN ISSUE AS CLOUDS AND LITTLE T/TD SPREAD WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVELY MILD MIN TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE WEDGE. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IF DRIER AIR ADVECTING SWWD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REACHES
THE PIEDMONT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT TO MIN T SAT
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SINKING SOUTH INTO THE
DELMARVA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING A DRY AND POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE
EAST COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OUT TO
SEA...AND UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE ENTIRE EASTERN US.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHILE THE WEDGE REMAINS
THIS WEEKEND...THEN BURN OFF DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS FINALLY VEER TO THE SW BY MONDAY...DELIVERING
MORE INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SE WEST VIRGINIA BY LATE DAY. H85 TEMPS MAY FALL TO 8C IN
THE VA PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY...BUT RAPID WAA ON SW WINDS MONDAY WILL
PUSH H85 TEMPS BACK TO 15C ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK FEATURES A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NORTH OF THIS RIDGE...A
MORE ZONAL TYPE PATTERN WILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CONUS...ALTHOUGH VERY NOISY...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY
RIPPLING EAST WITHIN THE FASTER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL FAVOR A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE NORMAL...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THE PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A
DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOTHING ORGANIZED PER SE
OR LASTING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME...BUT MAINLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IF THERE IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO BEING ORGANIZED IF WILL
MOST LIKELY COME FROM SOMETHING GENERATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT...THIS
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
FORM OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR A SQUALL LINE. OUTSIDE OF THIS
UPSTREAM THREAT...LOCAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WIND CONVERGENCE
WILL BE THE GREATEST. IF THE WINDS ALOFT BECOME PURE WESTERLY...A
LEE TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE PIEDMONT WHICH COULD AID IN SCATTERED
LATE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE TOO.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR FRONT EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
FROM ROUGHLY BLF-SIF. EARLIER SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS NW NC
DISSIPATED AROUND 07Z. MOIST...EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH ATTENDANT WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR CIGS IN PLACE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. HEALTHY WEDGE...WHICH WILL AWAIT REINFORCEMENT
SAT-SUN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS TOWARD THE NE U.S. AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THUS...EVEN FOR JUNE...FEEL LOW
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH...LIFTING TO MVFR AFT 14/15Z...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING BKN-OVC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY BREAKS IN THE OVC WILL
FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. FOG HAS BEEN MORE PATCHY...BUT AT A FEW
SPOTS IS LIFR...SUCH AS LWB. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
BETTER AFT 15Z...BUT WITH NE FLOW EXPECT HZ TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE
DAY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS ...NE-ESE THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF 5-7KTS. SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN WEST- SOUTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...MAINLY WEST OF A BLF-
SIF LINE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS COULD RETURN OR CONTINUE...FOR
BLF AND LWB MAINLY...LOWER CONFIDENCE AT BCB...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS PUSHED
FURTHER WEST AS DRY AIR ADVECTS SWWD TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THEN
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
925 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY...MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
COOLER...MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWEST
TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS PUSHING MOISTURE UP MOUNTAINS WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF REGION. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED MIXING HAS THIN OUT CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST...WHILE LOW
CLOUDS HOLDING IN THE EAST. DECREASED CLOUD COVER ON THE WESTERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH SFC OBS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW INDICATED SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF I77 THIS AFTERNOON. THE SWODY1
HIGHLIGHTED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. WITH CAUTION WILL HOLD
WITH CURRENT HIGHS AND WATCH TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING FOR
MODIFICATIONS.
AS OF 445 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR A BLF-SIF LINE. COOLER...MARITIME
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH WET GROUND FROM LATE DAY
RAINFALL THU HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. SO FAR...THE STRATUS HAS BEEN
MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE FOG. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...AND SHOULD BE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SAT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN TWO WEATHER CHANGES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
COMPARED TO THU. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR SW VA/NW
NC...WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE/WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA...AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS/BLUE
RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SPOTTY -DZ MAY
OCCUR IN AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT MOSTLY IT WILL JUST BE
CLOUDS.
THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...BROUGHT ON BY THE CLOUDS AND COOL
EASTERLY FLOW...WILL BE THE MAX TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS MOS APPEARS WAY TOO WARM. THE AIR
MASS UPSTREAM IS QUITE COOL FOR LATE MAY WITH TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR 50 ACROSS NORTHERN VA. FRANKLY...PERSISTENCE FOR
TEMPS IN WEDGE AREAS MIGHT BE THE BEST WAY TO GO TODAY...BUT HAVE
USED A BLEND OF THE COLDER MODELS...NAMELY MET MOS AND ECMWF
MOS...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENCE AND EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL
BE VERY SLOW/TOUGH TO ERODE TODAY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX T GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
GOING 1-2 CATEGORIES COLDER THAN MOST MOS GUIDANCE. MIN T TONIGHT
LESS OF AN ISSUE AS CLOUDS AND LITTLE T/TD SPREAD WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVELY MILD MIN TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE WEDGE. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IF DRIER AIR ADVECTING SWWD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REACHES
THE PIEDMONT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT TO MIN T SAT
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SINKING SOUTH INTO THE
DELMARVA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING A DRY AND POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE
EAST COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OUT TO
SEA...AND UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE ENTIRE EASTERN US.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHILE THE WEDGE REMAINS
THIS WEEKEND...THEN BURN OFF DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS FINALLY VEER TO THE SW BY MONDAY...DELIVERING
MORE INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SE WEST VIRGINIA BY LATE DAY. H85 TEMPS MAY FALL TO 8C IN
THE VA PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY...BUT RAPID WAA ON SW WINDS MONDAY WILL
PUSH H85 TEMPS BACK TO 15C ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK FEATURES A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NORTH OF THIS RIDGE...A
MORE ZONAL TYPE PATTERN WILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CONUS...ALTHOUGH VERY NOISY...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY
RIPPLING EAST WITHIN THE FASTER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL FAVOR A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE NORMAL...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THE PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A
DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOTHING ORGANIZED PER SE
OR LASTING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME...BUT MAINLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IF THERE IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO BEING ORGANIZED IF WILL
MOST LIKELY COME FROM SOMETHING GENERATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT...THIS
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
FORM OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR A SQUALL LINE. OUTSIDE OF THIS
UPSTREAM THREAT...LOCAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WIND CONVERGENCE
WILL BE THE GREATEST. IF THE WINDS ALOFT BECOME PURE WESTERLY...A
LEE TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE PIEDMONT WHICH COULD AID IN SCATTERED
LATE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE TOO.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR FRONT EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
FROM ROUGHLY BLF-SIF. EARLIER SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS NW NC
DISSIPATED AROUND 07Z. MOIST...EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH ATTENDANT WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR CIGS IN PLACE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. HEALTHY WEDGE...WHICH WILL AWAIT REINFORCEMENT
SAT-SUN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS TOWARD THE NE U.S. AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THUS...EVEN FOR JUNE...FEEL LOW
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH...LIFTING TO MVFR AFT 14/15Z...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING BKN-OVC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY BREAKS IN THE OVC WILL
FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. FOG HAS BEEN MORE PATCHY...BUT AT A FEW
SPOTS IS LIFR...SUCH AS LWB. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
BETTER AFT 15Z...BUT WITH NE FLOW EXPECT HZ TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE
DAY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS ...NE-ESE THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF 5-7KTS. SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN WEST- SOUTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...MAINLY WEST OF A BLF-
SIF LINE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS COULD RETURN OR CONTINUE...FOR
BLF AND LWB MAINLY...LOWER CONFIDENCE AT BCB...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS PUSHED
FURTHER WEST AS DRY AIR ADVECTS SWWD TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THEN
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
241 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL IN THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1115 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...SUCH AS HRRR AND
RAP...SHOWING CLEARER SIGNS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...ONCE THE ACTIVITY ACROSS FOOTHILLS AND BLUE RIDGE OF NW NC
TAPERS OFF...WHICH IT IS SLOWLY DOING. STILL ABOUT 500 J/KG SBCAPE
DOWN IN THAT AREA...BUT THINK BY MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM THIS SHOULD BE
FADING QUICKLY. SO HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS CONSIDERABLY
ELSEWHERE TO SLIGHT CHC...WAS HESITANT TO DROP ALL MENTION...AND
KEEP LIKELY POPS QUICKLY TAPERING TO CHC ACROSS THE FAR SW CORNER
OF THE FCST AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR REST OF OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 950 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FOOTHILLS OF NW NC NEAR LOCATION OF BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WHERE SOME WEAK SFC INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS. THESE ARE
SLOW MOVING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...BUT THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER IS OVER. THIS FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA FROM SMYTH
COUNTY TO WILKES AND YADKIN IS ABOUT THE ONLY PLACE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT LEFT A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER ELSEWHERE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
OTHERWISE JUST CHC SHOWERS AND EVEN REDUCED SOME AREAS TO SLIGHT
CHC AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN HIGH
RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER WELL PAST MIDNIGHT...AND WHILE LEANING TOWARD THOSE
SOLUTIONS WITH MOST LIMITED COVERAGE...LOWER LEVELS STILL VERY
SATURATED AND WHILE UPSLOPE FLOW FROM NORTHEAST IS VERY SHALLOW
AND WEAK...COULD BE SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FEW MORE SHOWERS
THAN SOME OF THESE MODELS SUGGEST...SO DIDN`T WANT TO DROP PRECIP
CHANCES DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC EVERYWHERE. THIS STILL MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED FURTHER THOUGH. AGAIN...BEST CHANCES FOR ONGOING
SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SW PART OF AREA REST OF
THE NIGHT.
OTHER MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG EARLIER PER SOME
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND JUST PUT THIS EVERYWHERE SINCE ITS HARD TO
PINPOINT ALL THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THIS...MOST LIKELY HIGHERRIDGES
AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE GOTTEN RECENT RAIN. ALSO WIDENED AREAS OF
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NOT JUST PIEDMONT BUT ALSO WEST OVER BLUE
RIDGE AND INTO PARTS OF NRV AND ROANOKE VALLEY.
TEMPS WILL NOT DROP ALL THAT QUICKLY THROUGH REST OF
OVERNIGHT...BUT GOING MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK OK...ALTHOUGH DROPPED
BLF AREA A LITTLE BIT MORE SINCE THEY ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO PREV
FCST MIN.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 705 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BACKDOOR FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH FCST AREA
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR FAR SW VA AND NW NC. TEMPS...AIDED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHVE COOLED INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A
FEW 70S NW NC FOOTHILLS. LOWER STRATUS STILL IN PIEDMONT OF VA.
MAIN FCST CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT COOLER TEMPS AND
ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER POPS MOVING FARTHER INTO MORE STABLE AIR OF VA
PIEDMONT PER LATEST RADAR...BUT LIMIT THUNDER EAST OF LYH.
STRONGER STORMS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS EARLIER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND BELIEVE THAT MAIN CONCERN FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING IS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY MORE URBAN
AREAS...RATHER THAN MUCH CHANCE FOR ANY WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL.
SBCAPE OF OVER 1000 J/KG CONFINED NOW TO NW NC. STILL...WHERE SOME
INSTABILITY PERSISTS INTO LATE EVENING...COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUE SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 407 PM EDT THURSDAY...
500 MB TROF AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...HIGHLIGHTED NICELY BY MSAS ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDEX AND
PRESSURE CHANGES...PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND
THE LIFT FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH BEST DESTABILIZATION. MEANWHILE...AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY STRATIFY AS IT ENTER THE MOUNTAINS. RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HEALTHILY LOW AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSOLATION SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT RESULTING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING THAT A
FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. SWODY1 HAD A SEE TEXT FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND...ALTHOUGH THE RISK SEEMS
DIMINISHED...BECAUSE OF LOWER DCAPE...RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
TRAINING OF STORMS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY ENHANCED BY THE EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE
ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE CLASHING OF AIRMASSES AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE KEEPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST
AREA MAINLY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY. SWODY2 PLACED GENERAL THUNDER BASICALLY WEST OF
I77. CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER ANY SEVERE THREAT IN SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HIGHS TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...EXCEPT EXTREME SW VA AND SE WEST VA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
REX BLOCK MID CONUS WILL PREVENT NORMAL WEST TO EAST PROGRESSION OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CUTOFF LOW VCNTY OF THE MID MS
VALLEY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...TAKING SEVERAL DAYS TO
BREAK DOWN BEFORE THE WESTERLIES KICK BACK IN NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DO MORE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER BY SUBJECTING THE FORECAST AREA TO A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD
OF EASTERLY FLOW WHICH TYPICALLY MEANS COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO GET STUCK
AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT JUST THAT...WITH A
SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...IN ADDITION
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE/FOG VCNTY OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH THIS
SORT OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESP EAST OF
THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE.
BEGINNING SUNDAY...AND MORE SO FOR MONDAY...THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH
WILL MOVE WELL OFF SHORE WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND DIAL MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...AND BEGIN THE WARM UP
PROCESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK FEATURES A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NORTH OF THIS RIDGE...A
MORE ZONAL TYPE PATTERN WILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CONUS...ALTHOUGH VERY NOISY...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY
RIPPLING EAST WITHIN THE FASTER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL FAVOR A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE NORMAL...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THE PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A
DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOTHING ORGANIZED PER SE
OR LASTING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME...BUT MAINLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IF THERE IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO BEING ORGANIZED IF WILL
MOST LIKELY COME FROM SOMETHING GENERATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT...THIS
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
FORM OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR A SQUALL LINE. OUTSIDE OF THIS
UPSTREAM THREAT...LOCAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WIND CONVERGENCE
WILL BE THE GREATEST. IF THE WINDS ALOFT BECOME PURE WESTERLY...A
LEE TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE PIEDMONT WHICH COULD AID IN SCATTERED
LATE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE TOO.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR FRONT EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
FROM ROUGHLY BLF-SIF. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS NW NC HAS FINALLY
DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY A FEW -SHRA REMAINING IN THAT AREA. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...MOIST...EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. EXPECT
EXTENSIVE LOW SC TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOME BKN DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IN ADDITION...MOIST GROUND FROM
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON HAS ENCOURAGED
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING.
THUS...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR VSBYS IN HZ THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF SITES
TODAY...AS ANY THREAT OF SUCH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW NC.
WINDS...NE-ESE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF 5-7KTS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS COULD RETURN OR CONTINUE...FOR
BLF AND LWB MAINLY...LOWER CONFIDENCE AT BCB...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS PUSHED
FURTHER WEST AS DRY AIR ADVECTS SWWD TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THEN
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/SK
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
241 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will undergo a warming trend this weekend.
Many areas will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. The majority
of the region will remain dry through the middle of next week.
However, the mountainous regions of north Idaho and northern
Washington will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon through mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday.... The weather this evening will
revolve around the slow approach of a closed upper level low
located just west of the northern Washington Cascades as of 2pm.
Convection from this feature has been quite limited thus far with
the only thing of note being a few small showers over the northern
Okanogan Highlands and Cascades well north of Lake Chelan.
Although we expect to see some intensification for the remainder
of the afternoon and into the early evening as the low tracks east
of the crest it will be far from a widespread event. Looks like
the convective inhibition that was forecast by some of the model
solutions was too strong to be overcome by the weak forcing or
orographic convergence alone. All convection should wind down
rapidly after sunset...however we will likely see some mid-level
instability and accas clouds track eastward across the Inland NW
tonight and into early Saturday. Based on the dry sub-cloud layer
we do not expect to see any measurable precipitation.
For Saturday the model solutions are fairly similar in tracking
the core of the upper level low into SE Washington or NC Idaho.
This looks like a much better setup for showers and
thunderstorms...especially for locations south and east of the
low...where an axis of maximum instability will be collocated with
the best divergence aloft. There will also be much weaker
convective inhibition. This suggests the best chances for showers
and thunderstorms will focus over the southern half of the Idaho
Panhandle. In the Cascades the threat should wane through the late
portions of the day as temperatures begin to warm aloft. We will
still hold onto a slight mention of thunderstorms. For most
locations aside from the previously mentioned ones...it should be
a generally dry day with slightly warmer temperatures than we
experienced today. fx
Saturday night through Monday evening: The region will remain
under a broad trough of lower pressure through this period. Low
levels will be fairly dry, which will make it difficult for the
basin to break the capping inversion. The mountains will have a
better chance of breaking the cap each afternoon with a chance of
showers and late afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Best chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be over the east slopes of the
northern Cascades where the best low level moisture will reside.
850 mb temperatures will increase to around 16-18 C Sunday into
Monday. This will result in temperatures between 8-15 degrees
above normal with highs warming into the 80s for most locations.
/SVH
Monday evening through Friday...Longwave trof continues to exert
an influence through this entire time interval. The shortwave
features that orient themselves in the trof vary from a general
trof with marginal instability that lifts and exits to the
northeast Tuesday evening. Weak shortwave ridging off the coast
provides a northwest to southeast path for nuisance shortwaves to
drop down in this persistent longwave trof thus marginal minor
pops linger primarily in the mountain areas of Northeast
Washington and North Idaho Wednesday into Friday. Forecast
temperatures do not show much of a trend through this interval and
almost remain persistent in some respect yet they are on the warm
side of what would be considered normal for this time of year.
/Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites through
18z Sat with primarily clear skies or just a few passing high
ones. Main weather of concern this period will be a chance of
showers and thunderstorms...between 21z-03z over the northern
Cascades and possibly spilling into the Okanogan Highlands. This
should stay far from the TAF sites...with KEAT being the
closest.The threat will shift toward the WA/ID border for
Sat...but the threat will likely hold off until after 18z Sat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 51 78 51 79 53 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 47 78 48 78 50 80 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Pullman 47 77 46 77 48 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 54 84 53 84 55 88 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Colville 45 78 48 80 50 84 / 10 20 10 10 10 10
Sandpoint 44 77 45 78 47 80 / 0 20 20 10 10 10
Kellogg 46 75 48 75 50 80 / 10 30 20 10 10 10
Moses Lake 50 84 52 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 55 84 59 86 61 88 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 47 82 51 85 53 87 / 10 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
241 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will undergo a warming trend this weekend.
Many areas will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. The majority
of the region will remain dry through the middle of next week.
However, the mountainous regions of north Idaho and northern
Washington will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon through mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday.... The weather this evening will
revolve around the slow approach of a closed upper level low
located just west of the northern Washington Cascades as of 2pm.
Convection from this feature has been quite limited thus far with
the only thing of note being a few small showers over the northern
Okanogan Highlands and Cascades well north of Lake Chelan.
Although we expect to see some intensification for the remainder
of the afternoon and into the early evening as the low tracks east
of the crest it will be far from a widespread event. Looks like
the convective inhibition that was forecast by some of the model
solutions was too strong to be overcome by the weak forcing or
orographic convergence alone. All convection should wind down
rapidly after sunset...however we will likely see some mid-level
instability and accas clouds track eastward across the Inland NW
tonight and into early Saturday. Based on the dry sub-cloud layer
we do not expect to see any measurable precipitation.
For Saturday the model solutions are fairly similar in tracking
the core of the upper level low into SE Washington or NC Idaho.
This looks like a much better setup for showers and
thunderstorms...especially for locations south and east of the
low...where an axis of maximum instability will be collocated with
the best divergence aloft. There will also be much weaker
convective inhibition. This suggests the best chances for showers
and thunderstorms will focus over the southern half of the Idaho
Panhandle. In the Cascades the threat should wane through the late
portions of the day as temperatures begin to warm aloft. We will
still hold onto a slight mention of thunderstorms. For most
locations aside from the previously mentioned ones...it should be
a generally dry day with slightly warmer temperatures than we
experienced today. fx
Saturday night through Monday evening: The region will remain
under a broad trough of lower pressure through this period. Low
levels will be fairly dry, which will make it difficult for the
basin to break the capping inversion. The mountains will have a
better chance of breaking the cap each afternoon with a chance of
showers and late afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Best chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be over the east slopes of the
northern Cascades where the best low level moisture will reside.
850 mb temperatures will increase to around 16-18 C Sunday into
Monday. This will result in temperatures between 8-15 degrees
above normal with highs warming into the 80s for most locations.
/SVH
Monday evening through Friday...Longwave trof continues to exert
an influence through this entire time interval. The shortwave
features that orient themselves in the trof vary from a general
trof with marginal instability that lifts and exits to the
northeast Tuesday evening. Weak shortwave ridging off the coast
provides a northwest to southeast path for nuisance shortwaves to
drop down in this persistent longwave trof thus marginal minor
pops linger primarily in the mountain areas of Northeast
Washington and North Idaho Wednesday into Friday. Forecast
temperatures do not show much of a trend through this interval and
almost remain persistent in some respect yet they are on the warm
side of what would be considered normal for this time of year.
/Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites through
18z Sat with primarily clear skies or just a few passing high
ones. Main weather of concern this period will be a chance of
showers and thunderstorms...between 21z-03z over the northern
Cascades and possibly spilling into the Okanogan Highlands. This
should stay far from the TAF sites...with KEAT being the
closest.The threat will shift toward the WA/ID border for
Sat...but the threat will likely hold off until after 18z Sat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 51 78 51 79 53 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 47 78 48 78 50 80 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Pullman 47 77 46 77 48 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 54 84 53 84 55 88 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Colville 45 78 48 80 50 84 / 10 20 10 10 10 10
Sandpoint 44 77 45 78 47 80 / 0 20 20 10 10 10
Kellogg 46 75 48 75 50 80 / 10 30 20 10 10 10
Moses Lake 50 84 52 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 55 84 59 86 61 88 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 47 82 51 85 53 87 / 10 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
241 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will undergo a warming trend this weekend.
Many areas will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. The majority
of the region will remain dry through the middle of next week.
However, the mountainous regions of north Idaho and northern
Washington will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon through mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday.... The weather this evening will
revolve around the slow approach of a closed upper level low
located just west of the northern Washington Cascades as of 2pm.
Convection from this feature has been quite limited thus far with
the only thing of note being a few small showers over the northern
Okanogan Highlands and Cascades well north of Lake Chelan.
Although we expect to see some intensification for the remainder
of the afternoon and into the early evening as the low tracks east
of the crest it will be far from a widespread event. Looks like
the convective inhibition that was forecast by some of the model
solutions was too strong to be overcome by the weak forcing or
orographic convergence alone. All convection should wind down
rapidly after sunset...however we will likely see some mid-level
instability and accas clouds track eastward across the Inland NW
tonight and into early Saturday. Based on the dry sub-cloud layer
we do not expect to see any measurable precipitation.
For Saturday the model solutions are fairly similar in tracking
the core of the upper level low into SE Washington or NC Idaho.
This looks like a much better setup for showers and
thunderstorms...especially for locations south and east of the
low...where an axis of maximum instability will be collocated with
the best divergence aloft. There will also be much weaker
convective inhibition. This suggests the best chances for showers
and thunderstorms will focus over the southern half of the Idaho
Panhandle. In the Cascades the threat should wane through the late
portions of the day as temperatures begin to warm aloft. We will
still hold onto a slight mention of thunderstorms. For most
locations aside from the previously mentioned ones...it should be
a generally dry day with slightly warmer temperatures than we
experienced today. fx
Saturday night through Monday evening: The region will remain
under a broad trough of lower pressure through this period. Low
levels will be fairly dry, which will make it difficult for the
basin to break the capping inversion. The mountains will have a
better chance of breaking the cap each afternoon with a chance of
showers and late afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Best chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be over the east slopes of the
northern Cascades where the best low level moisture will reside.
850 mb temperatures will increase to around 16-18 C Sunday into
Monday. This will result in temperatures between 8-15 degrees
above normal with highs warming into the 80s for most locations.
/SVH
Monday evening through Friday...Longwave trof continues to exert
an influence through this entire time interval. The shortwave
features that orient themselves in the trof vary from a general
trof with marginal instability that lifts and exits to the
northeast Tuesday evening. Weak shortwave ridging off the coast
provides a northwest to southeast path for nuisance shortwaves to
drop down in this persistent longwave trof thus marginal minor
pops linger primarily in the mountain areas of Northeast
Washington and North Idaho Wednesday into Friday. Forecast
temperatures do not show much of a trend through this interval and
almost remain persistent in some respect yet they are on the warm
side of what would be considered normal for this time of year.
/Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites through
18z Sat with primarily clear skies or just a few passing high
ones. Main weather of concern this period will be a chance of
showers and thunderstorms...between 21z-03z over the northern
Cascades and possibly spilling into the Okanogan Highlands. This
should stay far from the TAF sites...with KEAT being the
closest.The threat will shift toward the WA/ID border for
Sat...but the threat will likely hold off until after 18z Sat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 51 78 51 79 53 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 47 78 48 78 50 80 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Pullman 47 77 46 77 48 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 54 84 53 84 55 88 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Colville 45 78 48 80 50 84 / 10 20 10 10 10 10
Sandpoint 44 77 45 78 47 80 / 0 20 20 10 10 10
Kellogg 46 75 48 75 50 80 / 10 30 20 10 10 10
Moses Lake 50 84 52 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 55 84 59 86 61 88 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 47 82 51 85 53 87 / 10 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
241 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will undergo a warming trend this weekend.
Many areas will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. The majority
of the region will remain dry through the middle of next week.
However, the mountainous regions of north Idaho and northern
Washington will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon through mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday.... The weather this evening will
revolve around the slow approach of a closed upper level low
located just west of the northern Washington Cascades as of 2pm.
Convection from this feature has been quite limited thus far with
the only thing of note being a few small showers over the northern
Okanogan Highlands and Cascades well north of Lake Chelan.
Although we expect to see some intensification for the remainder
of the afternoon and into the early evening as the low tracks east
of the crest it will be far from a widespread event. Looks like
the convective inhibition that was forecast by some of the model
solutions was too strong to be overcome by the weak forcing or
orographic convergence alone. All convection should wind down
rapidly after sunset...however we will likely see some mid-level
instability and accas clouds track eastward across the Inland NW
tonight and into early Saturday. Based on the dry sub-cloud layer
we do not expect to see any measurable precipitation.
For Saturday the model solutions are fairly similar in tracking
the core of the upper level low into SE Washington or NC Idaho.
This looks like a much better setup for showers and
thunderstorms...especially for locations south and east of the
low...where an axis of maximum instability will be collocated with
the best divergence aloft. There will also be much weaker
convective inhibition. This suggests the best chances for showers
and thunderstorms will focus over the southern half of the Idaho
Panhandle. In the Cascades the threat should wane through the late
portions of the day as temperatures begin to warm aloft. We will
still hold onto a slight mention of thunderstorms. For most
locations aside from the previously mentioned ones...it should be
a generally dry day with slightly warmer temperatures than we
experienced today. fx
Saturday night through Monday evening: The region will remain
under a broad trough of lower pressure through this period. Low
levels will be fairly dry, which will make it difficult for the
basin to break the capping inversion. The mountains will have a
better chance of breaking the cap each afternoon with a chance of
showers and late afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Best chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be over the east slopes of the
northern Cascades where the best low level moisture will reside.
850 mb temperatures will increase to around 16-18 C Sunday into
Monday. This will result in temperatures between 8-15 degrees
above normal with highs warming into the 80s for most locations.
/SVH
Monday evening through Friday...Longwave trof continues to exert
an influence through this entire time interval. The shortwave
features that orient themselves in the trof vary from a general
trof with marginal instability that lifts and exits to the
northeast Tuesday evening. Weak shortwave ridging off the coast
provides a northwest to southeast path for nuisance shortwaves to
drop down in this persistent longwave trof thus marginal minor
pops linger primarily in the mountain areas of Northeast
Washington and North Idaho Wednesday into Friday. Forecast
temperatures do not show much of a trend through this interval and
almost remain persistent in some respect yet they are on the warm
side of what would be considered normal for this time of year.
/Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites through
18z Sat with primarily clear skies or just a few passing high
ones. Main weather of concern this period will be a chance of
showers and thunderstorms...between 21z-03z over the northern
Cascades and possibly spilling into the Okanogan Highlands. This
should stay far from the TAF sites...with KEAT being the
closest.The threat will shift toward the WA/ID border for
Sat...but the threat will likely hold off until after 18z Sat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 51 78 51 79 53 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 47 78 48 78 50 80 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Pullman 47 77 46 77 48 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 54 84 53 84 55 88 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Colville 45 78 48 80 50 84 / 10 20 10 10 10 10
Sandpoint 44 77 45 78 47 80 / 0 20 20 10 10 10
Kellogg 46 75 48 75 50 80 / 10 30 20 10 10 10
Moses Lake 50 84 52 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 55 84 59 86 61 88 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 47 82 51 85 53 87 / 10 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1209 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will undergo a warming trend this weekend.
Many areas will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The majority
of the region will remain dry through the middle of next week.
However, the mountainous regions of north Idaho and northern
Washington will have the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms Saturday through Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today...Cold upper level low continues to spin just west
of the northern Washington Cascades and locations just east of
here will be the main area of weather concern for later today. The
best lapse rates for later this afternoon will focus over the
northern Cascades and spread into the Okanogan Highlands. We are
seeing signs of some convective development over the mountains in
these areas however it looks like its being slowed by a broken
deck of mid and high level cloudiness. Whether or not the
convection can overcome this hindrance is questionable. The HRRR
is showing some showers developing after 2pm or so...however its
rather isolated as the convective capping in that area might not
be overcome by the forcing from the approaching low or the
convergence over the mountains. The HRRR is also downplaying the
thunder threat as the atmosphere isn`t all that unstable with
surface dewpoints only in the 30s. We aren`t confident enough to
remove the thunder from the forecast...but we will lower pops a
little...especially south of Lake Chelan. Remainder of forecast
looks good with mainly sunny skies and dry conditions. fx
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites through
18z Sat with primarily clear skies or just a few passing high
ones. Main weather of concern this period will be a chance of
showers and thunderstorms...between 21z-03z over the northern
Cascades and possibly spilling into the Okanogan Highlands. This
should stay far from the TAF sites...with KEAT being the
closest.The threat will shift toward the WA/ID border for
Sat...but the threat will likely hold off until after 18z Sat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 74 50 76 51 78 53 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 75 46 76 47 77 47 / 0 10 20 10 10 10
Pullman 74 45 75 45 75 43 / 0 20 20 10 0 0
Lewiston 81 52 81 52 82 53 / 0 20 20 10 10 0
Colville 74 44 77 47 81 47 / 10 10 20 10 10 10
Sandpoint 73 44 75 44 76 44 / 0 10 20 10 10 10
Kellogg 74 45 74 47 74 47 / 0 10 30 20 10 10
Moses Lake 80 50 83 51 84 51 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 81 56 83 57 84 58 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 78 48 82 50 84 51 / 10 10 10 0 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
251 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
ON THE CONUS SCALE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A REX
BLOCK PATTERN WITH A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE TX/OK/AR BORDERS AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION INTO WESTERN ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A DEEP
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF CANADA
TO ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS DIRECTING A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE/FUEL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN NORTHERN PLAINS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH FIELD OF CUMULUS
ACROSS MOST OF IA INTO THE MAJORITY OF MN IN RETURN FLOW AROUND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE 80S.
FOR TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR AREA QUIET AND
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR SOME INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH EASTWARD
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT/CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
CRANBERRY BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IN THE WISCONSIN
RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW SURFACE HIGH HOLDING STRONG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT NAM/GFS/HIRES ECMWF ALL
SHOWING MAIN CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINING WEST OF
THE AREA WITH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY BRUSHING AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THINKING WE WILL SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL ACCAS THROUGH THE DAY BUT HELD ANY SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE
WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.
LOOK FOR A GENERAL UPTICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOCUSING BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES
LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE AT
THIS POINT WITH 0-3KM MUCAPE ONLY IN THE 500-800J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR
WITHIN THIS CAPE LAYER ONLY IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. THINKING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS CREEPING UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES...SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SURFACE LOW SPINS UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND TRACKS NORTHEAST EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST WI. MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE ON MONDAY AS BOTH THE NAM/GFS PRODUCE
A CORRIDOR OF PRE-FRONTAL 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 1500-3000J/KG RANGE
ALONG WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. NAM ALSO SHOWS 700-
500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7-8C/KM. SO...APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE THREAT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE AREA.
THIS LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES AT LEAST FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH BEST CHANCES
BASICALLY CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. ADJUSTED
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. LOOK FOR COOLER AIR OTHERWISE ON BRISK WEST
WINDS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WED-FRI...ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING A
GENERALLY FLATTENED MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL
TROUGHS RIPPLING THROUGH THIS QUASI-HIGH ZONAL FLOW. APPEARS AT THIS
POINT THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS BOTH MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRING A FAIRLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A GENERAL
COOLING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS WED IN THE 70-
75 DEGREE RANGE AND IN THE MID 60S/LOWER 70S FOR THU. HIGHS LOOK
LIKE THEY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A DRY FEED OF AIR INTO THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ON THE INCREASE...WHICH MEANS A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD FORM AT
RST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED AT RST LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. RST MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS COME LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PLAN ON SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO REMAIN AT 10 KT OR
LESS INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1032 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH THAN WHAT THE RAP AND WRF MODELS
HAVE INDICATED QPF WISE. CONVECTION AND QPF IN THE NAM MODEL MAY
BE A LITTLE OVERDONE BUT IS DEFINITELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN
THE DRIER HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. AIR MASS TRENDING TO A DRIER
REGIME TODAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...GRADIENT
FLOW...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR FOR SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF. A COUPLE OF STRONG CELLS HAVE FORMED IN MOFFAT
COUNTY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER.
UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TAKES
A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION THIS EVENING AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN
COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS EXPANDING AREAS OF QPF TONIGHT AS THIS
WAVE MOVES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO. QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOW
SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR NW COLORADO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
THIS FORCING IS FRACTURED. SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AT AROUND
25-35 MPH FROM THE SW TO NE.
ONCE THE WAVE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...WSW ADVECTS DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS INTO UTAH AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
NEARLY NON EXISTENT...MEANING DRY WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY POINTING TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOWERS AFTER WEDNESDAY
AS MODEL AGREEMENT LESSENS. AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE... LEAVING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND ACROSS WEST.
A PACIFIC UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 130W/30N THIS AFTERNOON GETS PULLED
INLAND ACROSS CA ON MONDAY...THEN TRACKS ACROSS NRN UT NWRN CO ON
TUE. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE...
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BUT...ITS PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME WINDIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY POSE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER WAVE COMING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BUT DIFFER ON SPEED AND ORGANIZATION.
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MTNS SHOWERS THU-SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35 KTS AND LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 10Z AND FINISHED BY 14Z. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION WITH RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH. THE
HIGHEST FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON
BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THESE CONDITIONS.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
331 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS ALIGNED ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT
01/07Z AND WILL CONTINUE MEANDER SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING...
LIKELY NOT CLEARING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER UNTIL MID-LATE MORNING PER
RECENT RAP LIFTED INDEX PROGNOSTICATIONS. LOW-LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS...WHICH STREAM
INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY MCINTOSH
COUNTY. THE MAIN SPEED CONVERGENCE BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING. UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A
RISK FOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...EXTENDING AS FAR
INLAND AS LONG COUNTY. WILL HIGHLIGHT 50-70 PERCENT POPS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED A RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES QUALIFIER IN BOTH THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS
SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
70S AT THE BEACHES. IT WILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES ALONG
THE COAST AND SPEEDS COULD REACH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
/20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA
COAST LATER THIS MORNING. OPTED TO HOLD SPEEDS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR NOW.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING LATER TODAY...
ALTHOUGH A GOOD BIT OF CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER SOUTH OF I-16 FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE A CONSIDERABLY COOLER NIGHT COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND THE DECAYING FRONT SO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY WELL MIXED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY
DESCEND SOUTHWARD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SETTLE INTO THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY IN THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY...YET MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND A PERSISTENT CAPPING INVERSION TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE AND ANY FORCING
REMAINING CONFINED TO THE SOUTH ALONGSIDE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES BELOW
15 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
STILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...AS A STEADY EAST ONSHORE
WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST. THE SHIFT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SUPPORTING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
WEDNESDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND. CONSIDERING THE WEAKER UPPER RIDGE AND LESS
RESULTING SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH THE RETREATING ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN INLAND TROUGH...HAVE
REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TYPICAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...ADDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST DETAILS THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND COULD BE DRIVEN BY EITHER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTURBANCE
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR A POSSIBLE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
BY SATURDAY. THE GULF LOW SCENARIO IS AGGRESSIVELY DEPICTED IN THE
00Z/01 GFS...WHILE THE 00Z/01 ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTS A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. HAVE INDICATED
JUST TYPICAL ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...THEN
CONSERVATIVELY TREND INTO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TO INDICATE A POTENTIALLY MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. WILL
STILL CAP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...REACHING THE LOWER 90S
INLAND...BEFORE CONDITIONS COULD TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER INTO THE
WEEKEND IF THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER CROSSING KSAV THROUGH ABOUT
09Z. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AS BULK OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE
DAY...BEGINNING AT ABOUT 14-15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ALL LEGS
TODAY AS STIFF EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS RATHER HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
BET 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
WITH 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. WINDS LOOK TO SETTLE DOWN TO 10-15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER IT WILL TAKE SEAS A BIT LONGER TO WIND
DOWN. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
OVER THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ADVISORY END
TIMES WILL BE ADJUSTED TO TAKE THIS TREND INTO ACCOUNT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY DESCEND
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE...SETTLING INTO THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS AND BECOMING ALIGNED GENERALLY EAST-WEST
ACROSS MARINE ZONES. SOLID ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE PATTERN WITHIN GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS...WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST COUPLED
WITH HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS WILL KEEP THE RIP
CURRENT RISK CATEGORY IN THE LOW RANGE FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BEACHES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A HIGH-END LOW RISK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
350-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1240 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
257 PM...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND
TIMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES...LAKE COOLING AS
WELL AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK ARE
ALSO FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVELS HAVE MIXED DOWN SOME DRIER
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE AIDED
TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. A LAKE BREEZE IS SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND AND WHILE
TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...THE COOLEST AIR
APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS QUICKLY
JUMP INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE QUAD
CITIES. HIRES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET JUST WEST OF THE CWA.
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH
WILL AID ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE AND EXPECT ANY
CELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH POTENTIALLY SLOW MOVING
STORMS.
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS SOME PRECIP...
OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS ONLY MEDIUM BUT GIVEN
HOW WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED THE PAST 2 DAYS...SEE LITTLE
REASON TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE 90 DEGREE RANGE. SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SOONER AND/OR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...THEN
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 OR 25 MPH RANGE WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY
LAKESHORE COOLING TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE BUT BY AFTERNOON...
WARMER TEMPS SHOULD REACH MUCH OF THE LAKESHORE AREAS.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND THE
NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE FURTHER
ON MONDAY WITH WINDS POTENTIALLY GUSTING INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY MORNING ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S...TEMPS COULD EASILY REACH THE UPPER 80S BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING/COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
HIGHEST POPS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. IF PRECIP WERE TO HOLD OFF LONG
ENOUGH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME AREAS COULD TAG 90.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD REMAIN WINDS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY
COULD BE QUITE WARM...WELL INTO THE 80S AS SUGGESTED BY THE WARMER
GEM/NAM WHICH ALSO SHOW STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS. GFS/ECMWF COOLER
AND SUGGEST GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. OPTED TO GO WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH MID 80S
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAD BEEN PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL IS NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTHEASTERLY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS ONLY
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND EVEN COOLER AT THE LAKE...FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP NOW APPEARS TO BE FROM
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH BUT TIMING/TRACK MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANGES AS THIS TIME APPROACHES. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY SUPPRESS PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION OR
PERHAPS SOUTH OF THE CWA. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* S WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 20 KT THIS AFTN.
* ISOL TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTN AND EVE.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN TO OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY THE MORNING AND BEGIN TO GUST TO ARND 20 KT BY THE LATE
MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BUT REMAINING VFR.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THESE TWO FORCING
MECHANISMS WILL LEAD TO ISOL-SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. RFD
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS FIRST...AND 20Z MAY BE TOO LATE.
DECIDED TO SLOWLY INCH THE TIMING FORWARD. THE REMAINING
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE OCNL TSRA IMPACT AFT 21Z. SINCE TSRA IS STILL
GOING STRONG OVER MN AND WI AT THIS HOUR...FELT COMFORTABLE
EXTENDING THE PROB30 FOR TSRA INTO THE EVENING. GUSTS DIMINISH IN
THE EVENING BUT SOUTH WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT 12-15KT OVERNIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AND
COVERAGE OF TSRA...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY...MVFR POSS.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...TSRA LIKELY...MVFR POSS.
THURSDAY...SCHC TSRA DURING THE DAY INCREASING TO CHC TSRA
OVERNIGHT. MVFR BECMG VFR.
FRIDAY...CHC TSRA...VFR.
DZ
&&
.MARINE...
140 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS OVER THE LAKE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND GENERALLY
ELY-NELY THOUGH TONIGHT...BUT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW WHILE THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH TO THE
DELMARVA AREA WILL TURN WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY MORNING AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS AND STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE TO 30KT...WHILE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE REMAIN A BIT LIGHTER...AT UP TO 25KT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
NEWD INTO CANADA...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WINDS TURNING TO
WLY-NWLY. THE HIGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD FOR LAKE
MICHIGAN.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1152 PM CDT Sat May 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sat May 31 2014
Showers have lingered west of the IL river through 9 pm, and may
clip western Fulton and Knox counties for another hour. Otherwise,
rainfall should be primarily over for the night in central IL. The
slow movement east of surface high pressure tonight will allow
southeast winds to become south tomorrow morning. That shift will
facilitate additional moisture increase farther east into our
forecast area. Instability params will become more favorable for
showers and storms expanding eastward across IL on Sunday,
especially in the afternoon. The latest 4km HRRR is advertising an active
line of convection to our NW later tonight into Sunday morning,
but it is expected to dissipate for a time allowing the atmosphere
to recharge for afternoon redevelopment.
The thick high cloud cover this evening is showing steady drift
to the NE in the SW upper flow, so by midnight mainly thin cloud
cover should remain the rest of the night. Steady southeast winds
should help lows remain in the 60s across the board, with the
coldest temps toward Danville and warmest from Rushville to
Jacksonville. Fog is not expected to be a problem overnight, with
dewpoint spreads remain at 7F or greater through the night.
Updated the weather, PoP and Sky grids, but the remainder of the
forecast looked fine. Updated info will be available shortly.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT Sat May 31 2014
A few radar returns just west and north of Peoria are most likely
not rain reaching the ground. They are drifting north, which
should leave all terminal sites dry the remainder of the night
under diurnal stabilization of the boundary layer. A major
dewpoint gradient still resides from W to E across IL.
Jacksonville dewpoint was 70F at 11 pm while northeast areas had
dewpoints in the mid 50s, which is indicative of the dry low
level air over the eastern terminals under high pressure. Nearly
no diurnal cumulus formed in that airmass over BMI, CMI and DEC
earlier today. However, increases in moisture on Sunday should
increase cloud cover during the afternoon.
Based on forecast lows and sounding profiles, it does not appear
that fog will be much of a problem tonight, even toward SPI where
dewpoints are in the upper 60s.
The track of showers and storms tomorrow is expected to gradually
shift from west to east. All terminal sites will be under the
threat of thunderstorms during the afternoon, with a few storms
possible near SPI by late morning. VCTS was included in all TAFs
for tomorrow afternoon with VFR cloud ceilings arnd 4k FT. Any
thunderstorms over an airport could reduce visibility to MVFR 3SM
due to rainfall for short periods of time.
A break in the showers/storms is indicated for a few hours early
Sunday evening by a couple of the 4km high res models. However, another
line of showers and storms will possibly arrive toward 03z Sunday
evening. We decided to just leave VCTS through the evening at all
terminal sites until any breaks in the TS become more apparent.
Winds will remain southeast the rest of the night, and become south
Sunday morning with sustained speeds in the 12-14kt range and
occasional gusts to 20-22kt.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 PM CDT Sat May 31 2014
Models are very similar with the overall upper level pattern in
the short term, but then differ in the extended with timing and
strength of individual short waves moving through the
zonal/southwesterly flow. The models also look good on the surface
with location and timing of some of the surface features. However,
where the models differ is on the timing and location of the qpf
through the period. Though confidence is good with overall pattern
and sfc features through the forecast period, confidence becomes
low when looking at when showers and thunderstorms will occur in
the area...and where. Appears to be some disagreement with this
with surrounding offices as well. So, will try a blend of the
models and work to collaborate with surrounding offices.
Main concerns this forecast will be pcpn chances through the
period, and temp forecast later next week.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday
Thunderstorms are ongoing in southern and southwest IL, so will
have a chance in the extreme southwest parts of the cwa for late
this afternoon. Since tonight will be dry, will cover ongoing
pcpn with late afternoon period in forecast. Dry forecast for
tonight will be only period without some form of pcpn chances
until next weekend. As mid level high pressure continues to shift
southeast, along with the upper level low, southerly flow will
return to the area tomorrow and bring the return of warm, moist
air back into the whole cwa. With thunderstorms occurring in the
moist axis this afternoon, expect something similar tomorrow in
the cwa. So will bring back chance of showers and thunderstorms
for tomorrow across the area. The chance of thunderstorms will
continue tomorrow night, but highest chances will be in the north
and northwest and east. Then as surface high pressure pushes
further east and flow becomes southwesterly, a frontal system will
get close to the area for Monday. This will increase the chance of
pcpn in the area, with likely pops in the northwest half of the
cwa and chance pops elsewhere. The chance of thunderstorms will
continue Mon night and Tue as the front slowly drops into the area
and reaches central IL by Tuesday night. There could be a break in
the pcpn in some of the area Tuesday, but with models differing on
qpf, will keep chance pops over most of the area and have it dry
in the north.
Temps will remain warm through the period as central and southeast
IL will remain in the warm sector through Tuesday. 850mb temps
approach +18-19C, so temps could be much warmer than current
forecast. However, clouds and pcpn could temper that some.
LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday
The front will drop into the area Tue night and then likely remain
in the area through most of next week. This will keep the chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the area for Tue night through
Friday. There will likely be some dry periods in the extended, but
too much uncertainty in the timing of the short waves to try and
put dry periods in the forecast at this time. It does look like
the front will either washout or get far enough south to not
affect the weather in the area by Saturday. So, for now will have
dry weather for Fri night and Sat.
With continue period of clouds and pcpn, and a front somewhere in
the area, believe temps will become cooler in some of the area.
MEX guidance looks reasonable with 70s in the north and lower 80s
in the south, especially Thur through Sat.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
332 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN MN INTO KS WILL MOVE THROUGH IA BY
MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER CO TUE AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS NRN MO TUE NIGHT AND WED. COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
ONGOING CONVECTION SKIRTING THE NORTHERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO BOUNDARY ACROSS SD
AND MN. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH TODAY WITH MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH PERSISTING ACROSS THE STATE. WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE MISSOURI RVR CURRENTLY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING WITH WEAK FORCING. NAM AND HRRR BOTH DEVELOP SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE AND HAVE CONTINUE THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE MAIN SHOW STARTING TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND BACK INTO
NEBRASKA. HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE. THE THREAT
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE JUST AFTER THIS
PERIOD INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW FOCUSES INTO WESTERN
IOWA. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AS AIRMASS IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DONE LITTLE TO KEEP READINGS
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH THE S/WV AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. EXPECT TO SEE THE PRECIP END
FORM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE
STATE.
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER OF THE WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE FROM CO WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT EAST INTO NRN MO. STRONG
H8 SPEED CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS 60 KT
LLJ IMPINGES ON THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES APPROACHING 3 SIGMA OVER CLIMO. SEVERE WEATHER IS A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AS DECENT CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS.
DECENT DYNAMICS ARE ALSO IN PLACE WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT. MOST OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTH HALF OF IA. FEEL THAT IS
MOSTLY LIKELY GIVEN THE PATTERN AND PAST EXPERIENCE. NAM IS THE
ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
EAST ON WED. THOUGH THE HIGH IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CUT OFF ALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP...ESPECIALLY DURING THE CLIMO MAX FOR
RAINFALL...THE NEXT PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
ANY SHRA/TSRA SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. LIGHT BR MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED. ON
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED...BUT
WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND THUS HAVE ONLY
BEEN INCLUDED AT THE NORTHWEST FOD/MCW SITES AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH
THAT MAY STILL BE TOO EARLY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS JUN 14
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...MS JUN 14
AVIATION...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
239 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SW FLOW STILL IN PACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KS WITH A LONG FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTER COLORADO WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS AND ARE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. THERE IS MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE AND BULK
EFFECTIVE SHEER AROUND 35-45KT...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH
IS NOT GREAT EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KS AND A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
PATTERN WHICH WILL IMPACT INITIATION AND BEST AXIS OF
SHEER/INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. FOR NOW IT
DOES APPEAR MOST GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON WINDS FROM
YESTERDAY...SO NO WIND ADVISORY I CURRENT PLANNED IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
ECMWF/NAM BOTH SHOW TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
ALLOW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
FAR WEST AT THE HIGHWAY 25/HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDORS. GFS HAS A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AS IT SHIFTS THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST
MUCH QUICKER...SHUNTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEFT SEVERE MENTION
AND HEAVY RAIN MENTION. WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST WE SHOULD SEE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD CAPE/SHEER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY FORMING INTO A SQUALL LINE OR THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER OVER OUR FAR EAST (OR OUTSIDE OUR CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST).
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE OVER
PARTS OF OUR CWA...THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
FLOW PLACING BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON STATIONARY/WARM FRONT POSITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
WILL NOT ONLY IMPACT DAYTIME TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN OUR CWA. GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND IF THIS PANS OUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA
MAY REMAIN DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND HIGHS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE CWA COULD APPROACH 100F. IF THE FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH WE
COULD SE A LARGE TEMP SPREAD TUESDAY FROM LOW 80S IN THE NORTH
(MCCOOK) TO 100F IN THE SOUTH (TRIBUNE). NAM/GEM/ECMWF FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW I LEANED MORE TOWARDS A CONSERVATIVE BLEND
FAVORING THIS LARGER SPREAD RATHER THAN THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WE REACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR PRECIP EVENTS OF A
HALF INCH OR GREATER AT GLD. OVERALL GREAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ALLOWING FOR
A NUMBER OF QUICK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HARD TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE
ACROSS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP...BUT AM CONFIDENT THAT WE
WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS MOST DAYS. EASTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL
PROVIDE FOR AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES OF OVER AN INCH AND SLOW
STORM MOTION VALUE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE DOES EXIST FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER EACH DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ENOUGH TO
PIN POINT ANY DAY IN PARTICULAR DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS...WILL NOT MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TONIGHT AT KGLD/KMCK. A DRY LINE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 20Z. DRY AIR MAY ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH AT
KGLD TO INHIBIT CONVECTION...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
MENTION A CHANCE OF STORMS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS AT
KMCK. WITH DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR...INDICATED GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE STORMS THERE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MENTZER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
140 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
DECENT RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT SETTING UP. LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE TO MAKE SURE CURRENT TEMPS AND WINDS MATCHED
UP WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANCES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1056 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. OVERALL...THIS LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS SKY COVER
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A QUICKER DROP
OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE EASTERN VALLEYS. OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO MIN T ATTM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS. NEAR TERM SKY COVER WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE
CONSSHORT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER
FOR THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING DESPITE SOME OF THE RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS DEVELOPING
SHOWERS OVER THE BELL AND HARLAN COUNTY AREA EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST LATE AT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS
DRY OVERNIGHT AND SREF POPS ARE LOW OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND WITH THE
RIDGE HOLDING ON TONIGHT FEEL THIS IS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE
IN A FEW SPOTS.
THE THREAT OF ISOLATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED BARELY OUT OF THE AREA. THE
REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY BEFORE MOVING
BACK ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN IN THE
GRADIENT OF THETA E DISPLAY OF THE NAM AND I WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO
ACTUALLY CALL IT A WARM FRONT. THE NET RESULT WILL BE TO BRING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW AND THE ABOVE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLENDS FOR THE FORECASTS. EXPECT DRAY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL WAS PREDICTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES FROM 6 TO 9 PM
TONIGHT...HOWEVER CHOSE TO IGNORE THIS DUE TO THE LACK OF
ORGANIZATION SHOWING UP ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES CONFINED TO MAINLY TIMING
ISSUES.
ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE AREA. VERY FEW TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT SOME TERRAIN INDUCED BOUNDARIES MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WE
MAY SEE A LULL BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SKIRTING THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SHORTWAVE AFTER
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE PERIOD
FAIRLY UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY BROAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS TIMING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MAY
DIFFER QUITE A BIT. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR A WHILE WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR LOWER
VALLEY FOG 6Z TO 13Z...AND THIS COULD AFFECT LOZ AND SME. THE FOG
FROM NEARBY VALLEYS MAY ALSO LIFT INTO SJS. MID AND LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER ABOUT 10Z AS MOISTURE
INCREASES DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING EAST. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND
OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN THE MENTION OF
SOME VCSH FOR ANY CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CERTAINTY ON EXACT SET UP AND WHETHER OR NOT TAF
SITES WILL BE AFFECTED IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS THE WEST.
PORTIONS OF WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ROOTED OVER THE NORTHWEST ALONG
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS THE SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH FORECAST PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT
FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY. WITHIN THE PAST 7 DAYS A LARGE SWATH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVED 6 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
SUNDAY COULD PROVE TO BE TOO MUCH FOR THE SATURATED GROUND TO
HANDLE AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND RAP AND PRODUCE
GREATER AMOUNTS OF QPF. FOR THIS FORECAST UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS THE 00 UTC NAM INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY AND DID
NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...EXPECT FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS IN RESPONSE TO ONE OF MULTIPLE
WAVES WORKING THROUGH A BROAD MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING A RISK OF SHOWERS AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE CENTRAL AND EAST REMAIN DRY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM REINFORCING UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE BEST
THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY DRY REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTH DAKOTA
IN BETWEEN MORE ACTIVE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MODELS DIVERGE
A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLIP OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...WHILE GFS IS DRIER. BUT IN GENERAL WE REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KISN AND KDIK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO KBIS AND KMOT FROM 08-09 UTC.
AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER WILL APPROACH KJMS AFTER 12 UTC. LOW
PRESSURE OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY
KEEPING A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER KISN...KDIK...KMOT AND KBIS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND MOVING INTO KJMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING...DECREASING IN KISN AND KDIK
DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT STILL DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
OVERALL QPF PLACEMENT. NO MODEL IS DOING GREAT WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...BUT COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE
IS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY TO
AROUND DVL...AND WILL ADD THROUGH 13Z AND MONITOR ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT AROUND 21-00Z MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE AMPLE PWATS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND SOME INSTABILITY...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MON...THERE SHOULD BE A DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF NE SD AND DEVELOPING INTO OUR REGION
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IMPINGING ON SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FOR AREAS IN MN FROM
WILKIN COUNTY TO HUBBARD COUNTY...AND WE WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MON FOR WATER LOGGED AREAS IN MN...WITH
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. ELSEWHERE...THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH MON...AS THE UPPER WAVE AND LOW LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT MORE WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER THROUGH MUCH
OF MON MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FOR MON NIGHT...IT SHOULD DRY OUT SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY 12Z
TUE. FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST.
ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
FOR WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT...PERHAPS THE ONLY DRY DAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND EASTERLY WINDS KEEP THE REGION DRY. THIS WILL CHANGE
FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER TROUGH (CLOSED LOW
ON ECMWF) SETS UP OVER MONTANA AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SLOWLY
TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER BRINGING
PRECIP INTO EASTERN ND WED NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY UNTIL
THU AFTN. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION THU AND FRI AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE OUT OF MB BACK INTO SASK. GFS DOES BRING A SFC HIGH
OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND APPEARS DRY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS
PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST AND CONSALL THEREFORE STILL PRODUCING SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS. NEXT WAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ON
SAT THROUGH SUN MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG BEFORE SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
SINCE CURRENT CONDITIONS INDICATE LOWER CIGS ARE ISOLATED. AS PER
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE...THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD AND IF
THEY WOULD AFFECT ANY TAF SITE. WENT WITH A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST
USING PAST EXPERIENCES...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ003-023-024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. IN
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIFTING
NORTHEAST WITH SOME TRAINING FROM WILLIAMS INTO DIVIDE COUNTY.
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST AND HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY WINDS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. UPDATE MAINLY DEALT WITH RE-ALIGNING HIGHEST POPS WITH
CURRENT RADAR AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE OVERALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PER THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC. WHILE STORMS MAY BE SUSTAINED
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET...300-400 J/KG OF HAIL CAPE...700-800 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE
WITH 20-25 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY SUPPORT A LOW
END HAIL AND WIND THREAT...DECREASING THE FURTHER EAST THE STORMS
PROPAGATE. HOWEVER...OBSERVED SLOW STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR...NAMELY THE 20 AND INCOMING 21
UTC RUNS...HAVE AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING BROKEN LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THUS...WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR POPS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER BETWEEN 02-04 UTC...SUSTAINED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THE CONVECTION MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AS IT CROSSES
THE BORDER. THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST A CONGEALING LINE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT...FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE STORMS
BEGIN TO PROPAGATE INTO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 06-07 UTC...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT
WITH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS. ACROSS
THE EAST MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT THINKING OF LOW/NIL THUNDERSTORM
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE WITH SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE MODEST. A
MORE POTENT SYSTEM IS FORMING IN MONTANA WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MESOSCALE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
BRING A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT AS A QLCS IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 04-06Z. WILL HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING WINDS
LATER TONIGHT WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST SUNDAY WITH A MORE LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
STATE...EXITING THE DEVILS LAKE AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER (HAIL/TORNADOES) IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. KEPT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MENTION OF SHOWERS DURING THIS
TIME...AND EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 1.00 INCH
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD.
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE REGIME WITH
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND KEEPING
NORTH DAKOTA UNDER A MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THUS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID-WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...LOOKING AT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS MAINLY 45 TO 55.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KISN AND KDIK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO KBIS AND KMOT FROM 08-09 UTC.
AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER WILL APPROACH KJMS AFTER 12 UTC. LOW
PRESSURE OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY
KEEPING A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER KISN...KDIK...KMOT AND KBIS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND MOVING INTO KJMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING...DECREASING IN KISN AND KDIK
DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA/JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOW MOSTLY EAST OF
THE FA. 850MB-700MB BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS THE UPPER WAVE (AND
ASSOCIATED 700MB LOW) PROPAGATES THROUGH. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE POPPING
UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT...AND ANTICIPATE
THESE TYPE OF ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BOUNDARY ZONE
UNTIL THE UPPER WAVES PASSES TO THE EAST.
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE COMING IN SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THE PAST
DAY...FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE INCREASING. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO CONSIDER WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SFC LOW AT MID AFTERNOON LOCATED JUST NORTH OF HURON SD. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN TONIGHT JUST NORTH OF ST
CLOUD. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND WHERE. VSBL SAT PIX AND SPC SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
HIGHEST PWATS (1.6 IN) IN THAT DULUTH-ST CLOUD- WATERTOWN-PIERRE
SD REGION. SOME HEATING HAS OCCURRED IN CNTRL-SRN MN AS WELL. THUS
AS SFC LOW AND ASSOC 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVE EAST- NORTHEAST WOULD
EXPECT EXPANSION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BEST BET FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD APPEAR TO BE NR OR JUST SOUTH OF STORM TRACK INTO
BEST PWAT/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST HPC QPF HAS AREA OF 1+ INCH IN
6 HRS AREAS FROM BROOKINGS-WATERTOWN SD TO JUST SOUTH OF
ALEXANDRIAN TO LONG PRAIRIE THEN OVERNIGHT MOVING IT TO DULUTH.
THIS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THE WORST FELL
YESTERDAY IN OUR FCST AREA. EXCEPTION IS GRANT COUNTY WHERE 1.35
TO 1.85 INCHS OF RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT. BUT VERY LITTLE HAS FALLEN
TODAY PROPER. NO WATCHES ISSUED AS FEEL BEST BET OF HEAVY RAIN A
TAD SOUTH OF GRANT CO MN... AND PLUS AREAS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
ST CLOUD AND SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA RECEIVED 2 TO 5 INCHES
EARLIER TODAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE.
OTHERWISE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM BAUDETTE TO WEST OF FARGO IS
STARTING TO DIMINISH. BUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER
FORMING NR BEMIDJI. SO OVERALL IDEA OF NO RAIN ROX-GFK-COOPERSTOWN
WEST IS GOOD TONIGHT AND HIGHER POPS EAST OF THIS.
LOW AND UPPER WAVE DEPART LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY DRY DAY IN MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS FAR EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY....MAINLY FOR
COORDINATION. ALSO SUNDAY AFTN RAIN CHANCES WILL STAR TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WITH NAM WAY TOO FAST AND
ECMWF MUCH SLOWER. THUS BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF POPS FROM PREV
FCST. UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER AREA WITH ACCOMPANIED SFC
LOW INTO MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOL
THUNDER INTO THE REGION. ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST...BUT KEPT IDEA OF
LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST HALF SUN NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL BE OVER ERN ND MONDAY WITH SFC LOW CLOSER
TO DULUTH. EXPECT A PRETTY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MORE STRATIFORM VS CONVECTIVE. HOWEVER UP TO 1 INCH MAY
FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER
AIR AND CLEARING WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A
BIT OF A BREAK FOR OUR CWA AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SD
AND MISSES US TO OUR SOUTH. SFC LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE NEXT TROUGH DOES NOT START TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MONTANA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE QUIET PATTERN WILL BE VERY
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIGS FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK. STILL A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE
DETAILS...BUT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGING PRECIP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW BUT LOWS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN USUAL WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO KEEP US FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AT
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG BEFORE SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
SINCE CURRENT CONDITIONS INDICATE LOWER CIGS ARE ISOLATED. AS PER
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE...THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD AND IF
THEY WOULD AFFECT ANY TAF SITE. WENT WITH A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST
USING PAST EXPERIENCES...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/JR
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR...WHILE CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE UPSTATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN RESPONSE TO E/SE UPSLOPE FLOW. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT...TO A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
1015 PM UPDATE...TSTMS LINING UP ALONG A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES
EXTENDING WWD FROM THE SMOKIES AND ELBERT CO GA. OF COURSE...THIS
CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS MINIMAL COVERAGE WITHIN OUR FA. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO REALLY SAY WITH CONFIDENCE WHAT IS FOCUSING THE CONVECTION. THE
SRN BAND DOES APPEAR TO BE ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE...PROBABLY ASSOC
WITH THE FRONT. MEAN ELY FLOW IS CARRYING THE CELLS AWAY FROM OUR
FA...AND MOST OF OUR TERRITORY NOW LIES IN THE COOL/DRY SECTOR. I
ADJUSTED POPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS REALLY TO JUST HOLD THE
COVERAGE STEADY IN THESE AREAS AND GRADUALLY START TO FOCUS POPS
ALONG THE SE FACING BLUE RIDGE. OVERALL THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
OVERNIGHT LOOKS VERY LOW NORTH OF THE TRUE FRONT. UNDER PERSISTENT
E-SE LLVL WINDS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND BLUE RIDGE...THE MESO MODELS
/NOTABLY THE LAST FEW HRRR CYCLES/ SHOW WEAK CELLS CONTINUING TO
FIRE OVERNIGHT IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SAID...PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE WITH A WARM LAYER ACTING AS A CAP AND POOR LAPSE RATES
OVERALL. ENOUGH OF A SATURATED LAYER WILL DEVELOP THAT SOME
NON-CONVECTIVE SPRINKLES COULD RESULT. AN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT MENTION
IS JUSTIFIED ALONG THE SRN ESCARPMENT. I ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS A TAD
WARMER OVERNIGHT PER SHORT TERM MODEL BLEND...GIVEN WARMER DEWPOINTS
AT THIS HR THAN ANTICIPATED BY THE PREV FCST TEMPS.
THRU SUNDAY...THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD CLOSES OFF AN ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH SUNDAY THAT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION EVEN FURTHER. WILL NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THERE WILL STILL BE A WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY COOLER IN
SPITE OF MORE SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WAS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SHIFT EAST...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
THEN SETTLES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT
SHOULD BE ON OUR FAR WESTERN FLANK IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY OR
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION...NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...SHOULD WANE VERY QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND LITTLE FORCING NOTED OTHERWISE.
A TEMPORARY STAGNANT PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS BOTH UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE FEATURES SHIFT SLIGHTLY SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO OUR COUNTIES ALONG THE NC/TN STATE LINE...
WHERE SOME PRIMARILY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WE HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THAT AREA AS FOCUSED AS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND WHERE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS NOTED. ELSEWHERE
WE WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST MONDAY...AND HAVE BEEN A OPTIMISTIC
WITH SKY COVER...ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUDS MAY BE NOTED NEAR THE
OLD BOUNDARY PROBABLY LINGERING IN NE GEORGIA.
ONCE AGAIN A QUICK END TO ISOLATED HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE AN OVERNIGHT UPTICK IN A
MOISTENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST FACING MOUNTAIN TERRAIN.
THIS IS PROBABLY THE START OF A FEW LATE NIGHT/WEE HOUR SHOWERS...IN
A WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFTING PATTERN...AGAIN LOCATED TOWARD THE NC/TN
BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE FA HOLDS TO
A DRY PATTERN.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING HEIGHT FALLS REACHING PARTS OF OUR
FA TUESDAY...COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING WIND SHIFT LINE AND A VORT
LOBE PIVOTING THROUGH THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAKE A JUMP
BACK TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES...AS RICH MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NEWD.
WE HAVE STARTED POPS QUICKLY IN WESTERN NC/NE GA TUESDAY MORNING...
AND MOVED THEM INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...
AS FORCING WORKS ON THE INCREASINGLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. INSTABILITY
VARIES CONSIDERABLY LOOKING AT PLAN VIEW MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT
INFORMATION...BUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CARRY THUNDER.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND OF TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
WHICH FITS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND LATEST SET OF MOS
GUIDE INFORMATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE USA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY A
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND OVER THE
SE USA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE A FRONT REMAINS IN THE POTOMAC AND
OH RIVER VALLEYS. LITTLE CHANGE IS SEEN FOR OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHILE A A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO VA...AND
SLOW MOVING WARM WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. BY
SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST USA...
WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OH AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEY.
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WARM...HUMID AIR MASS. AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY EACH DAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR MID SUMMER NORMAL...WHICH
IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR HAS INFILTRATED THE PIEDMONT. WINDS
WILL THEREFORE BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND THESE WILL BE RELATIVELY
TRICKY...AS A PERSISTENT CROSS-RUNWAY COMPONENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT DIRECTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE A
LITTLE NORTH OF DUE EAST UNTIL LATE MORNING...WHEN THEY SHOULD
BECOME E/SE...POSSIBLY TAKING ON A TRUER SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MOIST E/SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MOST TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR BY
09Z AT THE LATEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KHKY...WHERE THE MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SHALLOW. HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF THE CLEAR
SKIES AND SMALL TEMP/DEWP SPREADS...SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KHKY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL VFR CIGS EXPAND OVER THE
TERMINAL LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY THINK THAT THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PREVENT CIGS FROM DROPPING
BELOW MVFR LEVELS...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT KAVL...WHERE A TEMPO HAS BEEN
ADDED FOR IFR PRIOR TO 12Z. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH MVFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY NOON-ISH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE (ESP KAVL)...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE A
TAF MENTION ATTM.
OUTLOOK...RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BACK TO THE REGION BY TUE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-WEEK. MORNING VISBY AND/OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 88% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 81% MED 78% MED 79% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 90% MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 86% MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WITH ANOTHER AREA NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING RAIN CHANCES WITH NONE OF THE SHORT TERM MESO MODELS
HAVING MUCH OF A HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE
PRODUCTION PROBLEMS WITH THE 31.20Z THE LAST FULL RUN AVAILABLE IN
AWIPS AND ON THE WEB. THE 01.00Z HI-RES ARW SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE CONVECTION OUT WEST OKAY BUT HAS NO CLUE ON THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST...EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z BUT PLAN
TO HOLD ON TO AT LEAST SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE EVENT THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS UNTIL THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOWS ITS DIURNAL DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST IS CLOSE TO THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. IT IS ALSO BEING
AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE AFTERNOON IS GOING TO PLAY OUT. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THIS COULD TEMPORARILY LEAVE THE AREA WITHOUT MUCH
DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE COMPENSATED BY THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
WITH AFTERNOON ML CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 1 TO 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
IN THIS AXIS OF CAPE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL HAVE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE
01.00Z NAM SHOWING IT PRODUCING SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER. ALL THE 01.00Z MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL
FROM ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON
ITS LOCATION. THE NAM AND 01.00Z ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER WESTERN
OR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHILE THE 01.00Z GFS HAS THE LOW NEAR
THE TWIN CITIES. GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL STILL BE
OVER THE AREA...FEEL THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE
FRONT INTO THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE NAM AND ECMWF
PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WOULD PUT
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.
THIS SHOULD THEN PLACE THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN
CHANCES FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST UP TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
WEST.
FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST AS WELL. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF ALL SHOWING DIFFERENT POSITIONS. THESE MODELS DO SHOW
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
IOWA DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH OUT THE DAY WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND WILL START IN THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GENERAL FORCING WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE CONTINUING. STILL COULD BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
SEVERE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. ML
CAPES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE WITH THE SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER REMAINING IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3 TO 4 KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5 TO
1.8 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT WITH GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...GFS AND 01.00Z GEM SHOWING THIS LOW BETWEEN OMAHA AND
KANSAS CITY. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD
OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN TO FORM
NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE ACTIVITY GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
LINE OR SHRA/TS ACROSS WESTERN WI MAKING A NORTHEAST TREK...FIRING
ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AND IN A WEAK FRONTOGENETIC REGION.
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACCOMPANYING THE LINE...BUT IT
HAS EXITED PAST KLSE. FARTHER WEST...SHRA/TS CONTINUE TO SPARK
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...HEADING NORTHEAST. RADAR AND MESO MODEL TRENDS
FAVOR KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY WEST OF KRST FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WORKING IN AFTER 12Z SAT. KLSE WOULD LIKELY STAY
DRY...WITH ONLY AN ISOLD SHRA/TS THREAT.
MORE SHRA/TS COULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGION.
RAP13/NAM12 CONTINUE TO POINT TO THIS. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD HELP THIS PCPN THREAT. HARD TO PINPOINT AN
AREA/TIMING FOR THE HIGHER SHRA/TS CHANCES...AND WILL USE BROADER
BRUSH STROKES FOR PCPN CHANCES UNTIL TIMING CAN BE NARROWED DOWN.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A WET AND STORMY
PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT FINALLY WORKING INTO THE AREA. A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
843 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DEWEESE RESERVOIR AND GRAPE CREEK
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE CUSTER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS
THAT THE RESERVOIR WILL REMAIN NEAR CAPACITY THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG GRAPE CREEK BELOW THE
RESERVOIR...BUT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
DAM HAS LESSENED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CURRENTLY...NO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG CELLS HAVE MOVED
EWD INTO KS...BUT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS. STRATUS PATCH ACROSS EL PASO HAS
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING
AS W-SW FLOW INCREASES AND AREA DRIES OUT FROM THE WEST. DRYLINE
SHOULD RETREAT TO JUST INSIDE THE CO-KS STATE LINE BY MID
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR E OF THE LINE...SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUICKLY SVR...HOWEVER...THEY
ALSO WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO KS...SO THREAT FOR OUR CWA LOOKS
MINIMAL. HRRR INITIATES STORMS RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER AT 20-21Z.
REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY TODAY. TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS. ALONG
WITH RH OF NR 10 PERCENT AND WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH...COULD SEE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
AREAS ALONG AND JUST E OF I-25. HOWEVER...DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
THE FUEL STATUS FOR MOST OF THE AFFECTED AREA DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE COURSE OF
NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
WILL SEE ANOTHER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT
MOSTLY OVER NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...EASTERN EL
PASO...KIOWA...AND PROWERS COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...WITH CONTINUED
DRYING ALOFT...WILL SEE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH SOME SPOTS FALLING INTO THE 30S BY MON
MORNING. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FLOW WILL BE WEAKLY UPSLOPE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY
MON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH HEIGHTS
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS RISING FAIRLY QUICKLY MON AFTERNOON...DOUBTFUL
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW
POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE KS BORDER MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...AHEAD
OF THE REDEVELOPING LEE TROUGH...AS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE TO GENERATE AN
ISOLATED TSRA. MAX TEMPS MON SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...BUT LITTLE CHANGED WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. ON TUE...PORTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH STRONG W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS COLORADO. MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE KS BORDER BY
AFTERNOON...AND WITH FAIRLY DEEP MIXING MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THEIR WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AS 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE 18-20C RANGE. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS/GREEN-UP WILL BE
THE ULTIMATE FACTOR IN ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WED BEHIND NORTHERN
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH...THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE RATHER SLOW
TO INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS SURFACE WINDS ARE INITIALLY NW.
BY WED EVENING...WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE E-NE...PUSHING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MTS. LOW CHANCE OF A TSRA WED
EVENING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WED EVENING AS MOISTURE
ARRIVES...THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY STAY JUST TO THE
NORTH OVER NERN CO. COOLER TEMPS AREA-WIDE WED AS 700 THERMAL
RIDGE IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE STATE. STILL APPEARS AN UPTURN IN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THU
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND UPPER ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS COOLER TEMPS AND
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THU-SAT WHICH
LOOKS OK FOR NOW...THOUGH SUSPECT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AS
THE SWITCH TO A WETTER PATTERN...AT LEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...COMES INTO FOCUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE MVFR CIGS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVR EL
PASO COUNTY THIS MORN. SHOULD SEE THEM DISSIPATE BY
14-15Z...POSSIBLY EARLIER. SW WINDS WILL GUST FROM 25-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER
01-02Z THIS EVENING. ROSE
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 839 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DEWEESE RESERVOIR AND GRAPE CREEK
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE CUSTER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS
THAT THE RESERVOIR WILL REMAIN NEAR CAPACITY THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG GRAPE CREEK BELOW THE
RESERVOIR...BUT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
DAM HAS LESSENED.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE
HYDROLOGY...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1030 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)...
JUNE 1ST...THE 2014 HURRICANE SEASON STARTS TODAY. 14Z WATER VAPOR
AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW FOR EARLY JUNE. FLOW CONSISTS OF TROUGHING THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BEFORE RIDGING FAR TO THE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA...BEFORE DIVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD INTO A DEEP
AND SHARP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
DEEP TROUGH...ALTHOUGH ALREADY WELL EAST OF OUR AREA WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK AS ATMOSPHERIC MOMENTUM ON ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY DRIVES A LATE SEASON FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A CLOSED LOW FEATURE THAT IS
SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NO DIRECT INFLUENCE TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS FEATURE OTHER
THAN AN ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ON ITS EASTERN SIDE
PROVIDING WAVES OF CIRRUS.
AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WAS PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS COASTAL
GEORGIA WITH A LATE SEASON "BACKDOOR" FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SHOWN BY
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO REACH DOWN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THEN STALL FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. JUST WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE FORECAST AS GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH. THE TRANSITION
ZONE...SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL BE
THE MOST UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS QUITE A MOIST PROFILE THROUGH THE TROP
WITH A PW OF OVER 1.8". MID-LEVEL TEMPS HAVE WARMED A DEGREE OR 2
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WHICH MAY GENERALLY TEMPER THE STRENGTH OF
STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE PROFILE IS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY. THE STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE STORM LAYER IS MUCH MORE
DEFINED THIS MORNING WITH A PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 400MB.
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE ALREADY AROUND 15KTS AND WILL BE
CREEPING UP IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MOMENTUM IS ENOUGH TO
EITHER PREVENT ANY INLAND PENETRATION OF THE SEA-BREEZE...OR PREVENT
ITS FORMATION ALL TOGETHER. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN THIS
AFTERNOON IS A GENERAL DECREASE OF SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AS THE SEA-BREEZE TRIES TO FORM...WITHOUT WINDS EVER REALLY
COMING AROUND TO AN ONSHORE DIRECTION (AT MOST SPOTS).
HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EFFICIENT FOR SURFACE FOCUS AS THE DEFINED
BOUNDARY...THE SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE COAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE STORM/UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE OPPOSITE SPEED CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST THIS MORNING WITH WINDS PILING UP AS THEY COME ONSHORE. THIS
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH ADDED DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS CONTRIBUTING TO
RAPID SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS QUICKLY
TRANSLATING WESTWARD TOWARD POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES WITHIN THE
STEADY EASTERLY FLOW. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONGEAL
WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST AFTER 2-3PM. ALTHOUGH THE
MORE LIKELY SPOT FOR STRONGER STORMS IS AT THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE AS THEY
DEVELOP. SEVERAL OF THE RECENT LOCAL HIRES WRFARW RUNS HAVE SHOWN
STORMS PEAKING IN INTENSITY JUST OFFSHORE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANSLATE OFFSHORE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF
SUNSET THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE MONDAY MORNING. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH. HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY AND WATCH OUT FOR THOSE QUICK MOVING
STORMS LATER TODAY.
&&
.MID TERM (MONDAY-TUESDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE
AROUND THE PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PENINSULA ALONG WITH THE DECREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY HANGING UP
ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OTHER TWO
SOLUTIONS...HANGING THE BOUNDARY UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WILL TAKE A BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIODS. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE THE DEEPEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL EXIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFERING UP A NUMBER OF POSSIBILITIES
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...WILL FOCUS ON WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WAITING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIODS. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN COLUMN
MOISTURE DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME...WITH COLUMN MOISTURE THEN
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AFTER 2-3PM. CHANCES FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR ASSOCIATED WITH
PASSING STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE EVENING HOURS AND
THEN RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE PENINSULA TODAY AND PUSH INTO THE WATERS
THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEFLY ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE. A
COMBINATION OF OVERNIGHT EASTERLY SURGES AND AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING CAUTIONARY WINDS TO THE WATERS TONIGHT...MONDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
AND NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 73 88 71 / 70 20 50 20
FMY 90 72 88 71 / 70 20 60 30
GIF 88 71 86 69 / 60 10 30 10
SRQ 90 74 88 72 / 70 30 60 20
BKV 89 71 88 68 / 60 10 30 10
SPG 88 76 87 74 / 70 30 60 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...JELSEMA
MARINE...LEWIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
653 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS
MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 01/1045Z...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING I-16. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER BY LATE MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS ALIGNED ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT
01/07Z AND WILL CONTINUE MEANDER SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING...
LIKELY NOT CLEARING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER UNTIL MID-LATE MORNING PER
RECENT RAP LIFTED INDEX PROGNOSTICATIONS. LOW-LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS...WHICH STREAM
INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY MCINTOSH
COUNTY. THE MAIN SPEED CONVERGENCE BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING. UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A
RISK FOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...EXTENDING AS FAR
INLAND AS LONG COUNTY. WILL HIGHLIGHT 50-70 PERCENT POPS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED A RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES QUALIFIER IN BOTH THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS
SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
70S AT THE BEACHES. IT WILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES ALONG
THE COAST AND SPEEDS COULD REACH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
/20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA
COAST LATER THIS MORNING. OPTED TO HOLD SPEEDS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR NOW.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING LATER TODAY...
ALTHOUGH A GOOD BIT OF CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER SOUTH OF I-16 FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE A CONSIDERABLY COOLER NIGHT COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND THE DECAYING FRONT SO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY WELL MIXED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY
DESCEND SOUTHWARD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SETTLE INTO THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY IN THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY...YET MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND A PERSISTENT CAPPING INVERSION TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE AND ANY FORCING
REMAINING CONFINED TO THE SOUTH ALONGSIDE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES BELOW
15 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
STILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...AS A STEADY EAST ONSHORE
WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST. THE SHIFT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SUPPORTING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
WEDNESDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND. CONSIDERING THE WEAKER UPPER RIDGE AND LESS
RESULTING SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH THE RETREATING ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN INLAND TROUGH...HAVE
REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TYPICAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...ADDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST DETAILS THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND COULD BE DRIVEN BY EITHER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTURBANCE
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR A POSSIBLE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
BY SATURDAY. THE GULF LOW SCENARIO IS AGGRESSIVELY DEPICTED IN THE
00Z/01 GFS...WHILE THE 00Z/01 ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTS A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. HAVE INDICATED
JUST TYPICAL ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...THEN
CONSERVATIVELY TREND INTO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TO INDICATE A POTENTIALLY MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. WILL
STILL CAP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...REACHING THE LOWER 90S
INLAND...BEFORE CONDITIONS COULD TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER INTO THE
WEEKEND IF THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE
DAY...BEGINNING AT ABOUT 14-15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ALL LEGS
TODAY AS STIFF EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS RATHER HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
BET 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
WITH 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. WINDS LOOK TO SETTLE DOWN TO 10-15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER IT WILL TAKE SEAS A BIT LONGER TO WIND
DOWN. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
OVER THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ADVISORY END
TIMES WILL BE ADJUSTED TO TAKE THIS TREND INTO ACCOUNT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY DESCEND
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE...SETTLING INTO THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS AND BECOMING ALIGNED GENERALLY EAST-WEST
ACROSS MARINE ZONES. SOLID ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE PATTERN WITHIN GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS...WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST COUPLED
WITH HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS WILL KEEP THE RIP
CURRENT RISK CATEGORY IN THE LOW RANGE FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BEACHES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A HIGH-END LOW RISK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
350-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
UPPER RIDGING TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR GULF RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE WHICH SHOULD KEEP WARM
HUMID AIR AROUND FOR THE DURATION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES. A WARMER...MORE MOIST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR FOR NOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S. TIME HEIGHT SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HRRR SHOWS SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS POSITIONING MAKES GOOD SENSE AS
BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED IN THAT AREA. THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF SKY COVERAGE AND POPS THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS THAT IS WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.
ONGOING TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON THE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS ON CHANCES FOR STORMS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES BUT GENERALLY
USED A MOS CONSENSUS. THE BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY 0Z TUESDAY. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER 6Z. SURFACE BASED CAPES FOR MONDAY ARE
OVER 1000 AND A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT
POINTING TO CENTRAL INDIANA. LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT OVERALL AM
FAIRLY UNIMPRESSED WITH THE FORCING POTENTIAL OF THIS FRONT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH AND WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST THEN. MUCH BETTER FORCING/SHEAR LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.
WITH FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA ABOVE 1.6
INCHES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM DURING THAT PERIOD WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD...WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND
LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW. HOWEVER...SURFACE REFLECTIONS NOW APPEAR MORE
ROBUST...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY.
RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON EURO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS GFS APPEARS TO
BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...FAIRLY BADLY AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...OVERALL MESSAGE OF A WET AND STORMY PERIOD REMAINS.
ALLBLEND POPS ACTUALLY SEEM TO HANDLE THINGS BETTER THAN IN RECENT
DAYS AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN
WARM HUMID AIRMASS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN THE ABSENCE OF SOME SEMBLANCE OF ORGANIZATION
HOWEVER...WILL SIMPLY INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR STORMS FROM 21Z TO 01Z
THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-12KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
REMAINING SO BUT WEAKER OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
639 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN MN INTO KS WILL MOVE THROUGH IA BY
MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER CO TUE AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS NRN MO TUE NIGHT AND WED. COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
ONGOING CONVECTION SKIRTING THE NORTHERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO BOUNDARY ACROSS SD
AND MN. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH TODAY WITH MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH PERSISTING ACROSS THE STATE. WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE MISSOURI RVR CURRENTLY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING WITH WEAK FORCING. NAM AND HRRR BOTH DEVELOP SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE AND HAVE CONTINUE THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE MAIN SHOW STARTING TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND BACK INTO
NEBRASKA. HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE. THE THREAT
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE JUST AFTER THIS
PERIOD INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW FOCUSES INTO WESTERN
IOWA. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AS AIRMASS IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DONE LITTLE TO KEEP READINGS
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH THE S/WV AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. EXPECT TO SEE THE PRECIP END
FORM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE
STATE.
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER OF THE WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE FROM CO WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT EAST INTO NRN MO. STRONG
H8 SPEED CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS 60 KT
LLJ IMPINGES ON THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES APPROACHING 3 SIGMA OVER CLIMO. SEVERE WEATHER IS A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AS DECENT CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS.
DECENT DYNAMICS ARE ALSO IN PLACE WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT. MOST OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTH HALF OF IA. FEEL THAT IS
MOSTLY LIKELY GIVEN THE PATTERN AND PAST EXPERIENCE. NAM IS THE
ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
EAST ON WED. THOUGH THE HIGH IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CUT OFF ALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP...ESPECIALLY DURING THE CLIMO MAX FOR
RAINFALL...THE NEXT PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...01/12Z
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY WITH UNLIMITED
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SOME LOCAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. BY TONIGHT...APPROACH OF SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL IOWA SPREADING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. HOWEVER...A DECREASE TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS AND PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT WILL
BEGIN TO BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS JUN 14
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...MS JUN 14
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
754 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.
STORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATING ALONG TWO DIFFERENT TROUGHS THIS
MORNING. THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AS CAN BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR. WITH STORM MOTION BEING FASTER THAN THE TROUGH...THE
STORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE TROUGH THEN DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE
INTO SUBSIDENCE. OVER THE WEST STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING AHEAD OF
THE MAIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. SO FAR INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MUCH WEAKER AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...BUT ENOUGH IS PRESENT FOR SOME STORMS TO FORM. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WHILE THE MORE SUBTLE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES ANTICIPATE THE TWO TROUGHS TO MERGE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECLINE BEHIND THE
MAIN TROUGH.
SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED FOR ATLEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF HWY 83. VERY LARGE HAIL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH THE
SECONDARY THREAT BEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SW FLOW STILL IN PACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KS WITH A LONG FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTER COLORADO WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS AND ARE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. THERE IS MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE AND BULK
EFFECTIVE SHEER AROUND 35-45KT...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH
IS NOT GREAT EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KS AND A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
PATTERN WHICH WILL IMPACT INITIATION AND BEST AXIS OF
SHEER/INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. FOR NOW IT
DOES APPEAR MOST GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON WINDS FROM
YESTERDAY...SO NO WIND ADVISORY I CURRENT PLANNED IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
ECMWF/NAM BOTH SHOW TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
ALLOW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
FAR WEST AT THE HIGHWAY 25/HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDORS. GFS HAS A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AS IT SHIFTS THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST
MUCH QUICKER...SHUNTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEFT SEVERE MENTION
AND HEAVY RAIN MENTION. WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST WE SHOULD SEE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD CAPE/SHEER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY FORMING INTO A SQUALL LINE OR THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER OVER OUR FAR EAST (OR OUTSIDE OUR CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST).
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE OVER
PARTS OF OUR CWA...THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
FLOW PLACING BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON STATIONARY/WARM FRONT POSITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
WILL NOT ONLY IMPACT DAYTIME TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN OUR CWA. GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND IF THIS PANS OUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA
MAY REMAIN DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND HIGHS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE CWA COULD APPROACH 100F. IF THE FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH WE
COULD SE A LARGE TEMP SPREAD TUESDAY FROM LOW 80S IN THE NORTH
(MCCOOK) TO 100F IN THE SOUTH (TRIBUNE). NAM/GEM/ECMWF FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW I LEANED MORE TOWARDS A CONSERVATIVE BLEND
FAVORING THIS LARGER SPREAD RATHER THAN THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WE REACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR PRECIP EVENTS OF A
HALF INCH OR GREATER AT GLD. OVERALL GREAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ALLOWING FOR
A NUMBER OF QUICK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HARD TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE
ACROSS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP...BUT AM CONFIDENT THAT WE
WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS MOST DAYS. EASTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL
PROVIDE FOR AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES OF OVER AN INCH AND SLOW
STORM MOTION VALUE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE DOES EXIST FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER EACH DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ENOUGH TO
PIN POINT ANY DAY IN PARTICULAR DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THIS MORNING...MONITORING STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 800-1000FT AGL IN
EASTERN COLORADO NEAR KLIC WHICH COULD SPREAD EAST TOWARDS KGLD.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LOWER CIGS OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
ALSO MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST
TOWARD KMCK. RIGHT NOW COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ENOUGH I
DECIDE TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCSH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE TERMINAL AROUND MID MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT COULD
FEED OFF INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BUILDING EARLIER AND CONTINUING AT KMCK ALL DAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY DOESNT FAVOR THIS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
THE REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA. BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL AGAIN BE AT
KMCK WHERE PREVAILING TSRA GROUP WAS ADDED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG ERRATIC WINDS AT EITHER
TERMINAL...BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS AT KMCK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SW FLOW STILL IN PACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KS WITH A LONG FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTER COLORADO WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS AND ARE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. THERE IS MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE AND BULK
EFFECTIVE SHEER AROUND 35-45KT...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH
IS NOT GREAT EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KS AND A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
PATTERN WHICH WILL IMPACT INITIATION AND BEST AXIS OF
SHEER/INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. FOR NOW IT
DOES APPEAR MOST GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON WINDS FROM
YESTERDAY...SO NO WIND ADVISORY I CURRENT PLANNED IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
ECMWF/NAM BOTH SHOW TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
ALLOW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
FAR WEST AT THE HIGHWAY 25/HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDORS. GFS HAS A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AS IT SHIFTS THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST
MUCH QUICKER...SHUNTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEFT SEVERE MENTION
AND HEAVY RAIN MENTION. WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST WE SHOULD SEE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD CAPE/SHEER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY FORMING INTO A SQUALL LINE OR THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER OVER OUR FAR EAST (OR OUTSIDE OUR CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST).
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE OVER
PARTS OF OUR CWA...THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
FLOW PLACING BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON STATIONARY/WARM FRONT POSITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
WILL NOT ONLY IMPACT DAYTIME TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN OUR CWA. GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND IF THIS PANS OUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA
MAY REMAIN DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND HIGHS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE CWA COULD APPROACH 100F. IF THE FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH WE
COULD SE A LARGE TEMP SPREAD TUESDAY FROM LOW 80S IN THE NORTH
(MCCOOK) TO 100F IN THE SOUTH (TRIBUNE). NAM/GEM/ECMWF FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW I LEANED MORE TOWARDS A CONSERVATIVE BLEND
FAVORING THIS LARGER SPREAD RATHER THAN THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WE REACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR PRECIP EVENTS OF A
HALF INCH OR GREATER AT GLD. OVERALL GREAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ALLOWING FOR
A NUMBER OF QUICK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HARD TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE
ACROSS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP...BUT AM CONFIDENT THAT WE
WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS MOST DAYS. EASTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL
PROVIDE FOR AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES OF OVER AN INCH AND SLOW
STORM MOTION VALUE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE DOES EXIST FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER EACH DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ENOUGH TO
PIN POINT ANY DAY IN PARTICULAR DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THIS MORNING...MONITORING STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 800-1000FT AGL IN
EASTERN COLORADO NEAR KLIC WHICH COULD SPREAD EAST TOWARDS KGLD.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LOWER CIGS OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
ALSO MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST
TOWARD KMCK. RIGHT NOW COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ENOUGH I
DECIED TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCSH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE TERMINAL AROUND MID MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT COULD
FEED OFF INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY WITH THUDNERSTORMS
BUILDING EARLIER AND CONTINUING AT KMCK ALL DAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY DOESNT FAVOR THIS. WILL NEED TO MONIOR.
THE REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NW KAANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA. BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL AGAIN BE AT
KMCK WHERE PREVAILING TSRA GROUP WAS ADDED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG ERRATIC WINDS AT EITHER
TERMINAL...BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS AT KMCK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
944 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. RAISED CHANCES IN BURKE AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES WHERE
SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING...AND LOWERED CHANCES FARTHER
WEST OVER DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES WHERE THE SHOWERS HAD MOVED
EAST. MAIN EFFORTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN TO TRY AND VERIFY RADAR
ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL FROM THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. CURRENT
REPORTS WERE OF 2-5 INCHES IN DIVIDE COUNTY...WITH A 3.5 INCH REPORT
FROM BURG TOWNSHIP. STILL AWAITING WORD FROM PLACES IN NORTHERN
WILLIAMS COUNTY...AND WILL BE UPDATING THE AREAL (OVERLAND) FLOOD
WARNING IN PLACE IN WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
UNTIL 230 PM CDT. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST POPS LOWER OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL. CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WEST LAST NIGHT HAS
MADE IT EAST ALMOST OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. THERE
IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR FUTURE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THEN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS THE WEST.
PORTIONS OF WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ROOTED OVER THE NORTHWEST ALONG
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS THE SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH FORECAST PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT
FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY. WITHIN THE PAST 7 DAYS A LARGE SWATH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVED 6 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
SUNDAY COULD PROVE TO BE TOO MUCH FOR THE SATURATED GROUND TO
HANDLE AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND RAP AND PRODUCE
GREATER AMOUNTS OF QPF. FOR THIS FORECAST UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS THE 00 UTC NAM INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY AND DID
NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...EXPECT FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS IN RESPONSE TO ONE OF MULTIPLE
WAVES WORKING THROUGH A BROAD MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING A RISK OF SHOWERS AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE CENTRAL AND EAST REMAIN DRY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM REINFORCING UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE BEST
THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY DRY REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTH DAKOTA
IN BETWEEN MORE ACTIVE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MODELS DIVERGE
A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLIP OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...WHILE GFS IS DRIER. BUT IN GENERAL WE REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG FROM DICKINSON THROUGH BISMARCK TO
JAMESTOWN THIS MORNING. EXPECT CE LINGS AND FOG TO LIFT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE 12Z PERIOD...BUT SHOULD CLEAR
OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR NDZ018>020-031>034-040>045.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH A
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
701 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST POPS LOWER OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL. CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WEST LAST NIGHT HAS
MADE IT EAST ALMOST OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. THERE
IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR FUTURE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THEN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS THE WEST.
PORTIONS OF WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ROOTED OVER THE NORTHWEST ALONG
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS THE SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH FORECAST PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT
FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY. WITHIN THE PAST 7 DAYS A LARGE SWATH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVED 6 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
SUNDAY COULD PROVE TO BE TOO MUCH FOR THE SATURATED GROUND TO
HANDLE AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND RAP AND PRODUCE
GREATER AMOUNTS OF QPF. FOR THIS FORECAST UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS THE 00 UTC NAM INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY AND DID
NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...EXPECT FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS IN RESPONSE TO ONE OF MULTIPLE
WAVES WORKING THROUGH A BROAD MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING A RISK OF SHOWERS AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE CENTRAL AND EAST REMAIN DRY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM REINFORCING UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE BEST
THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY DRY REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTH DAKOTA
IN BETWEEN MORE ACTIVE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MODELS DIVERGE
A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLIP OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...WHILE GFS IS DRIER. BUT IN GENERAL WE REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG FROM DICKINSON THROUGH BISMARCK TO
JAMESTOWN THIS MORNING. EXPECT CE LINGS AND FOG TO LIFT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE 12Z PERIOD...BUT SHOULD CLEAR
OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR NDZ018>020-031>034-040>045.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS EXITED TO OUR EAST. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES
THROUGH MONDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...STALLING IN OHIO
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BONE DRY AIR DOES NOT STICK AROUND LONG...NOW THAT WE ARE
ENTERING JUNE. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY INCREASING COMPARED TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY.
WEAK FLOW 700 MBS AND ALOFT...BUT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AT 925 MBS THIS
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT CAUSING SOME CEILINGS IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SW WV INCLUDING HTS-CRW CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
FIGURING THAT MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT INTO MOSTLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 18Z...WHILE SCT CU FORMS ELSEWHERE IN DAYTIME HEATING. STILL
LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HTS TRI STATE VCNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. BUT FCST RAP SOUNDINGS
STILL A BIT TOO DRY...NEED TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST.
RAISED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE I-79 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON. AND RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO A FEW DEGREES FIGURING ON MORE CLOUDS AND A WIND
STIRRING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS ESTABLISH A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER UNSETTLED WEEK OVERALL...WITH
AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.
ON MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE BRINGS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. DESPITE THIS...BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT TOO
BULLISH ON INSTABILITY AND THERE IS ALSO AN OVERALL LACK OF A
TRIGGER MECHANISM TO GET CONVECTION GOING. KEPT IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
IN SOUTHEAST OHIO DUE TO PRESENCE OF WEAK VORT MAX...BUT BACKED OFF
A BIT ON POPS OVERALL GIVEN THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
EXPECTING A TYPICAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN ANY ACTIVITY MONDAY
EVENING. SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.
REGARDLESS...LIKELY POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE ALONG/WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER BY 12Z...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.
LIKELY POPS THEN SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AS HIGHER THETA-E
AIR ARRIVES ALONG WITH THE FRONT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED
GIVEN THE FRONT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...OR STRONG FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT. NO LARGE-SCALE WATER THREAT IS INDICATED EITHER...ALTHOUGH
LOCAL PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW. COVERAGE
WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA.
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. SPC
HIGHLIGHTED THE NORTHERN CWA FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. ECMWF DOES
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS LINE OF THINKING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY HWO SEVERE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS VALUES USED FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME
TWEAKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW AS WEAK 5H RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THUS..AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DOES NOT
STRAY FAR FROM OUR AREA AS IT TAKES ON AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG FRONT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WITH THE COMBINATION DECENT DIURNAL
HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES HANDLING THESE FEATURES...SO STAYED WITH HPC GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NOTED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
TODAY. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM FORMING HTS ON
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
LAYERS CLOUDS AT MOSTLY 4 TO 8 THSD FT AGL OVERNIGHT...WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES. SOME MVFR IN FOG MAY FORM IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OF WV 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/CL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
930 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM
YESTERDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S PLATEAU WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...BUT 12Z HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION
BLOSSOMING BY 17Z WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY
HAS ALL OF THIS COVERED AND LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR
EAST, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHICH IS
KEEPING A WARM, UNSTABLE AIR MASS LOCKED IN OVER THE MID STATE.
LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY, WHICH WILL ENHANCE
OUR CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD, WHICH SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE
LITTLE STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THESE WILL JUST BE PAVEMENT
WETTERS. OVERALL PATTERN AND FORECAST WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RICH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH AFTERNOON...WITH NO WIND SHEAR TO SPEAK
OF MEANS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG AT TIMES DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES.
TRYING TO FIND A PERIOD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHERE THINGS
MIGHT CHANGE A BIT IN THE PRECIPITATION REALM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
WEDNESDAY MIGHT BE THAT DAY. STARTING MONDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BY TUESDAY...MOVE NE INTO CANADA.
THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY`S PRECIP HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAY HELP TO PUSH RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF THE MID-STATE GIVING US A RESPITE IN THE RAIN
CATEGORY. THE DOWNSIDE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY PUSH INTO THE
REGION IN ITS PLACE AND HELP TO WARM US UP BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THESE TWO DAYS MAY BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES SHOWING LOW 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ONTO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
FORECAST...WITH A ONLY A FEW READINGS INTO THOSE LOW 90S WEST OF THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA.
OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TURNS ZONAL AND A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS
MOVE WEST TO EAST...NORTH OF THE STATE. THE RESULT COULD BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON.
STILL NOT CRAZY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR...BUT WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MORE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED
WIND THREAT EACH DAY.
LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVENTUAL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THE EURO WANTS A SHORTWAVE TO PUSH RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF
TN SATURDAY...WITH MORE RAIN MOVING IN SUNDAY...AND THE GFS WANTS TO
KEEP RAIN AROUND BOTH DAYS. WILL JUST TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR
NOW...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UNGER
,AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING SITUATED JUST EAST WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...WHILE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF. DEEPER MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
OVER THE MID-STATE LATER ON SUNDAY AND WHILE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ANYTIME...SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOOKS MOST
LIKELY FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...OVERNIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP CKV BUT IS VERY LIKELY CSV WHERE IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
TOWARD DAWN.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
629 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WITH ANOTHER AREA NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING RAIN CHANCES WITH NONE OF THE SHORT TERM MESO MODELS
HAVING MUCH OF A HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE
PRODUCTION PROBLEMS WITH THE 31.20Z THE LAST FULL RUN AVAILABLE IN
AWIPS AND ON THE WEB. THE 01.00Z HI-RES ARW SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE CONVECTION OUT WEST OKAY BUT HAS NO CLUE ON THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST...EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z BUT PLAN
TO HOLD ON TO AT LEAST SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE EVENT THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS UNTIL THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOWS ITS DIURNAL DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST IS CLOSE TO THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. IT IS ALSO BEING
AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE AFTERNOON IS GOING TO PLAY OUT. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THIS COULD TEMPORARILY LEAVE THE AREA WITHOUT MUCH
DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE COMPENSATED BY THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
WITH AFTERNOON ML CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 1 TO 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
IN THIS AXIS OF CAPE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL HAVE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE
01.00Z NAM SHOWING IT PRODUCING SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER. ALL THE 01.00Z MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL
FROM ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON
ITS LOCATION. THE NAM AND 01.00Z ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER WESTERN
OR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHILE THE 01.00Z GFS HAS THE LOW NEAR
THE TWIN CITIES. GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL STILL BE
OVER THE AREA...FEEL THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE
FRONT INTO THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE NAM AND ECMWF
PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WOULD PUT
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.
THIS SHOULD THEN PLACE THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN
CHANCES FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST UP TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
WEST.
FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST AS WELL. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF ALL SHOWING DIFFERENT POSITIONS. THESE MODELS DO SHOW
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
IOWA DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH OUT THE DAY WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND WILL START IN THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GENERAL FORCING WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE CONTINUING. STILL COULD BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
SEVERE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. ML
CAPES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE WITH THE SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER REMAINING IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3 TO 4 KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5 TO
1.8 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT WITH GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...GFS AND 01.00Z GEM SHOWING THIS LOW BETWEEN OMAHA AND
KANSAS CITY. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD
OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN TO FORM
NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE ACTIVITY GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SINCE THE LATEST HRRR AND 01.06Z ARW SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE EXISTING PRECIPITATION TRENDED THE TAFS TOWARD THEM. EXPECT
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...REMOVED THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND RAISED
CEILINGS INTO THE 8 TO 14K RANGE AT BOTH TAF SITES. WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND 01.17Z AT KRST AND AROUND 07.20Z AT KLSE. AT THE SAME
TIME...EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 5K FEET.
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT
KRST BETWEEN 02.01Z AND 02.03Z...AND AT KLSE BETWEEN 02.03Z AND
02.05Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME BRIEFLY IFR/MVFR IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1107 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DEWEESE RESERVOIR AND GRAPE CREEK
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE CUSTER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS
THAT THE RESERVOIR WILL REMAIN NEAR CAPACITY THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG GRAPE CREEK BELOW THE
RESERVOIR...BUT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
DAM HAS LESSENED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CURRENTLY...NO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG CELLS HAVE MOVED
EWD INTO KS...BUT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS. STRATUS PATCH ACROSS EL PASO HAS
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING
AS W-SW FLOW INCREASES AND AREA DRIES OUT FROM THE WEST. DRYLINE
SHOULD RETREAT TO JUST INSIDE THE CO-KS STATE LINE BY MID
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR E OF THE LINE...SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUICKLY SVR...HOWEVER...THEY
ALSO WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO KS...SO THREAT FOR OUR CWA LOOKS
MINIMAL. HRRR INITIATES STORMS RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER AT 20-21Z.
REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY TODAY. TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS. ALONG
WITH RH OF NR 10 PERCENT AND WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH...COULD SEE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
AREAS ALONG AND JUST E OF I-25. HOWEVER...DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
THE FUEL STATUS FOR MOST OF THE AFFECTED AREA DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE COURSE OF
NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
WILL SEE ANOTHER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT
MOSTLY OVER NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...EASTERN EL
PASO...KIOWA...AND PROWERS COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...WITH CONTINUED
DRYING ALOFT...WILL SEE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH SOME SPOTS FALLING INTO THE 30S BY MON
MORNING. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FLOW WILL BE WEAKLY UPSLOPE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY
MON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH HEIGHTS
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS RISING FAIRLY QUICKLY MON AFTERNOON...DOUBTFUL
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW
POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE KS BORDER MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...AHEAD
OF THE REDEVELOPING LEE TROUGH...AS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE TO GENERATE AN
ISOLATED TSRA. MAX TEMPS MON SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...BUT LITTLE CHANGED WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. ON TUE...PORTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH STRONG W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS COLORADO. MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE KS BORDER BY
AFTERNOON...AND WITH FAIRLY DEEP MIXING MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THEIR WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AS 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE 18-20C RANGE. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS/GREEN-UP WILL BE
THE ULTIMATE FACTOR IN ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WED BEHIND NORTHERN
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH...THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE RATHER SLOW
TO INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS SURFACE WINDS ARE INITIALLY NW.
BY WED EVENING...WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE E-NE...PUSHING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MTS. LOW CHANCE OF A TSRA WED
EVENING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WED EVENING AS MOISTURE
ARRIVES...THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY STAY JUST TO THE
NORTH OVER NERN CO. COOLER TEMPS AREA-WIDE WED AS 700 THERMAL
RIDGE IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE STATE. STILL APPEARS AN UPTURN IN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THU
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND UPPER ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS COOLER TEMPS AND
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THU-SAT WHICH
LOOKS OK FOR NOW...THOUGH SUSPECT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AS
THE SWITCH TO A WETTER PATTERN...AT LEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...COMES INTO FOCUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
IN ADDITION TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES...ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED AT
THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
310 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
JUNE 1ST...THE 2014 HURRICANE SEASON STARTS TODAY. 19Z WATER VAPOR
AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW FOR EARLY JUNE. FLOW CONSISTS OF TROUGHING THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BEFORE RIDGING FAR TO THE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA...AND FINALLY DIVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD INTO A
DEEP AND SHARP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS DEEP TROUGH...ALTHOUGH ALREADY WELL EAST OF OUR AREA WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK AS ATMOSPHERIC MOMENTUM ON ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY DRIVES A LATE SEASON FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A CLOSED LOW FEATURE THAT IS
SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NO DIRECT INFLUENCE TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OTHER THAN AN ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ON ITS EASTERN SIDE PROVIDING WAVES OF CIRRUS.
AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WAS PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS COASTAL
GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA WITH A LATE SEASON "BACKDOOR" FRONT. THIS FRONT
IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO REACH DOWN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND THEN STALL FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. JUST WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE FORECAST AS GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH.
THE TRANSITION ZONE...SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...WILL BE THE MOST UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS QUITE A MOIST PROFILE THROUGH THE TROP
WITH A PW OF OVER 1.8". MID-LEVEL TEMPS HAVE WARMED A DEGREE OR 2
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY TEMPER THE STRENGTH
OF UPDRAFTS (COMPARED TO PAST DAYS)...HOWEVER THE PROFILE IS
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE
STORM LAYER IS MUCH MORE DEFINED NOW...WITH A PREVAILING EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH 400MB. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE ALREADY 15-20KTS.
THIS MOMENTUM IS ENOUGH TO EITHER PREVENT ANY INLAND PENETRATION OF
THE SEA-BREEZE...OR PREVENT ITS FORMATION ALL TOGETHER. BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST AS OF 2 PM...A GENERAL DECREASE OF
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS
MOST LIKELY AS THE SEA-BREEZE TRIES TO FORM...WITHOUT WINDS EVER
REALLY COMING AROUND TO AN ONSHORE DIRECTION (AT MOST SPOTS).
HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EFFICIENT FOR SURFACE FOCUS AS A DEFINED
BOUNDARY...THE SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE COAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE STORM/UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE NOW PROGRESSING QUICKLY
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITHIN THE PREVAILING FLOW.
ALTHOUGH THE MORE LIKELY SPOT FOR STRONGER STORMS IS AT THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE AS
THEY DEVELOP. SEVERAL OF THE RECENT LOCAL HIRES WRFARW RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW STORMS PEAKING IN INTENSITY JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SEEMS LIKE A
REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE SPEED OF PROROGATION...EVEN EARLY IN A
CONVECTIVE CELLS LIFE CYCLE. BOATERS ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SHOULD RECOGNIZED THAT ANY STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BEACHES WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND POSSIBLY CUT OFF ACCESS BACK TO SHORE.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL AS THE
MOMENTUM MENTIONED ABOVE IS TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE UNDER AND
AHEAD OF THE CELL.
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANSLATE OFFSHORE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF
SUNSET THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP THROUGH NORTHEAST
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH.
MONDAY IS A TRICKY FORECAST WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT A BIG
PLAYER IN THE THE RAIN CHANCES. USED A SIMILAR PHILOSOPHY TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH LOWEST POPS TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR WITHIN A MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE DOWN ALONG THE
SUNCOAST ZONES...WITH A GOOD GUIDANCE CONSENSUS OF THE MOST NUMEROUS
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN
GULF. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE GENERATED
FROM DIFFLUENCE/SPEED CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX
JET STRUCTURE. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE THE
BEST DAY TO BE BOATING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S.
&&
.MID TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE
AROUND THE PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PENINSULA ALONG WITH THE DECREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY HANGING UP
ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OTHER TWO
SOLUTIONS...HANGING THE BOUNDARY UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WILL TAKE A BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIODS. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE THE DEEPEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL EXIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFERING UP A NUMBER OF POSSIBILITIES
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...WILL FOCUS ON WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WAITING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIODS. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN COLUMN
MOISTURE DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME...WITH COLUMN MOISTURE THEN
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. WILL BE CARRYING VCTS WITH TEMPOS FOR BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO BE GUSTY AS WELL. LINGERING STORMS WILL END WITHIN AN HOUR
OR 2 OF SUNSET WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THEN IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE PENINSULA TODAY AND PUSH INTO THE WATERS
THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEFLY ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE. A
COMBINATION OF OVERNIGHT EASTERLY SURGES AND AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING CAUTIONARY WINDS TO THE WATERS TONIGHT...MONDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON MONDAY. DESPITE SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...NO CRITICAL LEVELS
OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE ANTICIPATED...AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH DISPERSION
INDICES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 88 71 85 / 20 40 20 30
FMY 73 88 71 86 / 20 60 30 50
GIF 71 88 69 85 / 10 30 10 20
SRQ 73 88 72 85 / 30 60 20 40
BKV 71 89 68 85 / 10 30 10 20
SPG 76 87 74 85 / 30 50 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...JELSEMA
MARINE...LEWIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE QUIET WEATHER OF THE PAST WILL CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK...BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY.
GULF MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
AFTER A QUICK BREAK ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR
STORMS.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS EVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AMID THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 629 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
UPPED POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK
THAT CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND WITH ATMOSPHERE BRING WORKED OVER. HAVE LIKELY POPS
BEFORE 00Z WHERE NEEDED BUT AFTER 00Z ONLY WENT CHANCE. WILL UPDATE
AS NECESSARY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. LOOKS LIKE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
PLUME OF GULF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE HIGH TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TWO TRIGGERING MECHANISMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
WANING DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR HAS CONTINUED TO HINT AT ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SUBSEQUENT RUNS HAVE
ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...NOT A LOT OF TIME WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL TREND CHCS TOWARD A SLIGHT OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
LATE TONIGHT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT A SHORT WAVE PASSING
TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. PLENTY OF GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 06Z...BUT
BEST LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 12Z...AND THAT IS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL TRY AND
TREND POPS LOWER ACROSS THE EAST BUT STICK CLOSE TO THE HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE WEST AS ARRIVAL OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND WILL USE
A BLEND.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THIS PERIOD. WE PICK UP
AT 12Z MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING A SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE STATE...BEST FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS HERE SHOW GOOD SATURATION AND THE BEST
LIFT OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AVAILABLE AND DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUES AS
STATED IN THE EARLIER PERIOD...WILL FLIP THE SCENARIO HERE AND
HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...AND STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN...BUT VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL BLEND
MAV AND MET HIGHS.
ON MONDAY NIGHT FORCING IS LOST AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING WORKING INTO THE COLUMN AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A POORLY ORGANIZED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL BUT DECENT MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. BY THIS TIME LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS
CHANGED TO WEST OR NORTHWESTERLY CHANGING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STICK CLOSE ON TEMPS AS LITTLE TO NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS PROVIDED.
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD THE GFS AND NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A QUICK AND RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW OVER INDIANA. THIS MEANS
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK RIDGE WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS THINGS COMING INTO SHAPE FOR PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEXT IS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
80S. FINALLY...THE 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT
UPGLIDE WITH VERY MOIST SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL
TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN HEATING AND FORCING APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER BEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW. THE MOST STRONG AND LIKELY SYSTEM WILL BE ON IT/S
WAY OUT OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WED NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES AS THE MAIN
THREATS.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD QUITE WELL
WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMP RIGHT
AT CLIMO DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
50/60S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA AT THIS TIME. APPEARS THERE IS A WEAK UPPER WAVE ENTERING
WESTERN INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED WITH TIME...BUT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY STILL RATHER HIGH. CONSIDERING THERE IS SOME
UPPER SUPPORT...THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM MODELS PUSH THIS UPPER WAVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY
020200Z...SO THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN HIGH UNTIL THEN.
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS IN AND
NEAR THE HEAVIER CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 020300Z
CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. APPEARS SURFACE WINDS
MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR
VISIBILITIES...BUT IF THE WINDS DROP OFF MORE THAN EXPECTED...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY.
FINALLY...SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST CEILING 010-015 WILL DEVELOP
TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
629 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE QUIET WEATHER OF THE PAST WILL CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK...BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY.
GULF MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
AFTER A QUICK BREAK ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR
STORMS.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS EVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AMID THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 629 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
UPPED POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK
THAT CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND WITH ATMOSPHERE BRING WORKED OVER. HAVE LIKELY POPS
BEFORE 00Z WHERE NEEDED BUT AFTER 00Z ONLY WENT CHANCE. WILL UPDATE
AS NECESSARY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. LOOKS LIKE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
PLUME OF GULF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE HIGH TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TWO TRIGGERING MECHANISMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
WANING DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR HAS CONTINUED TO HINT AT ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SUBSEQUENT RUNS HAVE
ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...NOT A LOT OF TIME WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL TREND CHCS TOWARD A SLIGHT OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
LATE TONIGHT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT A SHORT WAVE PASSING
TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. PLENTY OF GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 06Z...BUT
BEST LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 12Z...AND THAT IS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL TRY AND
TREND POPS LOWER ACROSS THE EAST BUT STICK CLOSE TO THE HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE WEST AS ARRIVAL OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND WILL USE
A BLEND.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THIS PERIOD. WE PICK UP
AT 12Z MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING A SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE STATE...BEST FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS HERE SHOW GOOD SATURATION AND THE BEST
LIFT OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AVAILABLE AND DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUES AS
STATED IN THE EARLIER PERIOD...WILL FLIP THE SCENARIO HERE AND
HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...AND STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN...BUT VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL BLEND
MAV AND MET HIGHS.
ON MONDAY NIGHT FORCING IS LOST AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING WORKING INTO THE COLUMN AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A POORLY ORGANIZED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL BUT DECENT MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. BY THIS TIME LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS
CHANGED TO WEST OR NORTHWESTERLY CHANGING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STICK CLOSE ON TEMPS AS LITTLE TO NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS PROVIDED.
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD THE GFS AND NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A QUICK AND RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW OVER INDIANA. THIS MEANS
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK RIDGE WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS THINGS COMING INTO SHAPE FOR PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEXT IS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
80S. FINALLY...THE 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT
UPGLIDE WITH VERY MOIST SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL
TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN HEATING AND FORCING APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER BEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW. THE MOST STRONG AND LIKELY SYSTEM WILL BE ON IT/S
WAY OUT OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WED NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES AS THE MAIN
THREATS.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD QUITE WELL
WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMP RIGHT
AT CLIMO DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
50/60S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 012100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA MOVING GENERALLY TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THIS SEEMS TO BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUT THERE MAY BE A WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME LOOSE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
THIS CONVECTION AS WELL. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF IN THE VICINITY OF
KIND...SO UNSURE HOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE LEFT BY THE TIME
IT REACHES KIND...AROUND 012300Z.
FOR NOW WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING OF THE VICINITY SHOWER GROUP BY
A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE UPDATE AND MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR ANY BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MFVR MORE LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MODELS AND LATEST RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW ALL OF THE
CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND AFFECT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE FOR VCSH FROM 21-02Z.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MANY OF THE TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MFVR
EITHER AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW AND GUSTS TO
UPWARDS OF 25 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE QUIET WEATHER OF THE PAST WILL CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK...BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.
GULF MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
AFTER A QUICK BREAK ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR
STORMS.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS EVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AMID THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
PLUME OF GULF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE HIGH TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TWO TRIGGERING MECHANISMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
WANING DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR HAS CONTINUED TO HINT AT ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SUBSEQUENT RUNS HAVE
ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...NOT A LOT OF TIME WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL TREND CHCS TOWARD A SLIGHT OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
LATE TONIGHT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT A SHORT WAVE PASSING
TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. PLENTY OF GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 06Z...BUT
BEST LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 12Z...AND THAT IS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL TRY AND
TREND POPS LOWER ACROSS THE EAST BUT STICK CLOSE TO THE HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE WEST AS ARRIVAL OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND WILL USE
A BLEND.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THIS PERIOD. WE PICK UP
AT 12Z MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING A SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE STATE...BEST FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS HERE SHOW GOOD SATURATION AND THE BEST
LIFT OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AVAILABLE AND DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUES AS
STATED IN THE EARLIER PERIOD...WILL FLIP THE SCENARIO HERE AND
HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...AND STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN...BUT VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL BLEND
MAV AND MET HIGHS.
ON MONDAY NIGHT FORCING IS LOST AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING WORKING INTO THE COLUMN AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A POORLY ORGANIZED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL BUT DECENT MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. BY THIS TIME LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS
CHANGED TO WEST OR NORTHWESTERLY CHANGING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STICK CLOSE ON TEMPS AS LITTLE TO NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS PROVIDED.
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD THE GFS AND NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A QUICK AND RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW OVER INDIANA. THIS MEANS
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK RIDGE WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS THINGS COMING INTO SHAPE FOR PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEXT IS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
80S. FINALLY...THE 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT
UPGLIDE WITH VERY MOIST SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL
TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN HEATING AND FORCING APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER BEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW. THE MOST STRONG AND LIKELY SYSTEM WILL BE ON IT/S
WAY OUT OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WED NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES AS THE MAIN
THREATS.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD QUITE WELL
WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMP RIGHT
AT CLIMO DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
50/60S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 012100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA MOVING GENERALLY TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THIS SEEMS TO BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUT THERE MAY BE A WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME LOOSE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
THIS CONVECTION AS WELL. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF IN THE VICINITY OF
KIND...SO UNSURE HOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE LEFT BY THE TIME
IT REACHES KIND...AROUND 012300Z.
FOR NOW WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING OF THE VICINITY SHOWER GROUP BY
A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE UPDATE AND MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR ANY BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MFVR MORE LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MODELS AND LATEST RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW ALL OF THE
CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND AFFECT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE FOR VCSH FROM 21-02Z.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MANY OF THE TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MFVR
EITHER AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW AND GUSTS TO
UPWARDS OF 25 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
153 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE QUIET WEATHER OF THE PAST WILL CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK...BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.
GULF MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
AFTER A QUICK BREAK ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR
STORMS.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS EVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AMID THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
PLUME OF GULF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE HIGH TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TWO TRIGGERING MECHANISMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
WANING DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR HAS CONTINUED TO HINT AT ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SUBSEQUENT RUNS HAVE
ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...NOT A LOT OF TIME WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL TREND CHCS TOWARD A SLIGHT OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
LATE TONIGHT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT A SHORT WAVE PASSING
TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. PLENTY OF GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 06Z...BUT
BEST LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 12Z...AND THAT IS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL TRY AND
TREND POPS LOWER ACROSS THE EAST BUT STICK CLOSE TO THE HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE WEST AS ARRIVAL OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND WILL USE
A BLEND.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THIS PERIOD. WE PICK UP
AT 12Z MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING A SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE STATE...BEST FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS HERE SHOW GOOD SATURATION AND THE BEST
LIFT OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AVAILABLE AND DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUES AS
STATED IN THE EARLIER PERIOD...WILL FLIP THE SCENARIO HERE AND
HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...AND STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN...BUT VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL BLEND
MAV AND MET HIGHS.
ON MONDAY NIGHT FORCING IS LOST AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING WORKING INTO THE COLUMN AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A POORLY ORGANIZED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL BUT DECENT MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. BY THIS TIME LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS
CHANGED TO WEST OR NORTHWESTERLY CHANGING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STICK CLOSE ON TEMPS AS LITTLE TO NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS PROVIDED.
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD THE GFS AND NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A QUICK AND RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW OVER INDIANA. THIS MEANS
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK RIDGE WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS THINGS COMING INTO SHAPE FOR PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEXT IS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
80S. FINALLY...THE 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT
UPGLIDE WITH VERY MOIST SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL
TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN HEATING AND FORCING APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER BEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW. THE MOST STRONG AND LIKELY SYSTEM WILL BE ON IT/S
WAY OUT OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WED NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES AS THE MAIN
THREATS.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD QUITE WELL
WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMP RIGHT
AT CLIMO DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
50/60S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR ANY BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MFVR MORE LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MODELS AND LATEST RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW ALL OF THE
CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND AFFECT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE FOR VCSH FROM 21-02Z.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MANY OF THE TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MFVR
EITHER AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW AND GUSTS TO
UPWARDS OF 25 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE QUIET WEATHER OF THE PAST WILL CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK...BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.
GULF MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
AFTER A QUICK BREAK ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR
STORMS.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS EVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AMID THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
PLUME OF GULF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE HIGH TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TWO TRIGGERING MECHANISMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
WANING DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR HAS CONTINUED TO HINT AT ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SUBSEQUENT RUNS HAVE
ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...NOT A LOT OF TIME WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL TREND CHCS TOWARD A SLIGHT OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
LATE TONIGHT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT A SHORT WAVE PASSING
TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. PLENTY OF GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER 06Z...BUT
BEST LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 12Z...AND THAT IS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL TRY AND
TREND POPS LOWER ACROSS THE EAST BUT STICK CLOSE TO THE HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE WEST AS ARRIVAL OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND WILL USE
A BLEND.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THIS PERIOD. WE PICK UP
AT 12Z MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING A SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE STATE...BEST FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS HERE SHOW GOOD SATURATION AND THE BEST
LIFT OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AVAILABLE AND DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUES AS
STATED IN THE EARLIER PERIOD...WILL FLIP THE SCENARIO HERE AND
HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...AND STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE
WEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN...BUT VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL BLEND
MAV AND MET HIGHS.
ON MONDAY NIGHT FORCING IS LOST AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING WORKING INTO THE COLUMN AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A POORLY ORGANIZED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL BUT DECENT MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. BY THIS TIME LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS
CHANGED TO WEST OR NORTHWESTERLY CHANGING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STICK CLOSE ON TEMPS AS LITTLE TO NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS PROVIDED.
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD THE GFS AND NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A QUICK AND RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW OVER INDIANA. THIS MEANS
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK RIDGE WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS THINGS COMING INTO SHAPE FOR PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEXT IS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
80S. FINALLY...THE 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT
UPGLIDE WITH VERY MOIST SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL
TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN HEATING AND FORCING APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER BEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD...WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND
LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW. HOWEVER...SURFACE REFLECTIONS NOW APPEAR MORE
ROBUST...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY.
RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON EURO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS GFS APPEARS TO
BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...FAIRLY BADLY AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...OVERALL MESSAGE OF A WET AND STORMY PERIOD REMAINS.
ALLBLEND POPS ACTUALLY SEEM TO HANDLE THINGS BETTER THAN IN RECENT
DAYS AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR ANY BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MFVR MORE LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MODELS AND LATEST RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW ALL OF THE
CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND AFFECT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE FOR VCSH FROM 21-02Z.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MANY OF THE TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MFVR
EITHER AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW AND GUSTS TO
UPWARDS OF 25 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
114 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
UPPER RIDGING TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR GULF RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE WHICH SHOULD KEEP WARM
HUMID AIR AROUND FOR THE DURATION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES. A WARMER...MORE MOIST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR FOR NOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S. TIME HEIGHT SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HRRR SHOWS SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS POSITIONING MAKES GOOD SENSE AS
BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED IN THAT AREA. THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF SKY COVERAGE AND POPS THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS THAT IS WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.
ONGOING TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON THE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS ON CHANCES FOR STORMS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES BUT GENERALLY
USED A MOS CONSENSUS. THE BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY 0Z TUESDAY. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER 6Z. SURFACE BASED CAPES FOR MONDAY ARE
OVER 1000 AND A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT
POINTING TO CENTRAL INDIANA. LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT OVERALL AM
FAIRLY UNIMPRESSED WITH THE FORCING POTENTIAL OF THIS FRONT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH AND WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST THEN. MUCH BETTER FORCING/SHEAR LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.
WITH FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA ABOVE 1.6
INCHES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM DURING THAT PERIOD WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD...WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND
LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW. HOWEVER...SURFACE REFLECTIONS NOW APPEAR MORE
ROBUST...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY.
RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON EURO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS GFS APPEARS TO
BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...FAIRLY BADLY AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...OVERALL MESSAGE OF A WET AND STORMY PERIOD REMAINS.
ALLBLEND POPS ACTUALLY SEEM TO HANDLE THINGS BETTER THAN IN RECENT
DAYS AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR ANY BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MFVR MORE LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MODELS AND LATEST RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW ALL OF THE
CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND AFFECT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE FOR VCSH FROM 21-02Z.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MANY OF THE TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MFVR
EITHER AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW AND GUSTS TO
UPWARDS OF 25 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1214 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
UPDATED FORECAST FOR TODAY TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS. BIGGEST CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS MODELS HAVE SPED UP
THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY AM
THINKING STORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN KIT CARSON AND YUMA
COUNTIES. WITH BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND VERY
LITTLE CINH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...ANTICIPATE STORMS TO DEVELOP SPORADICALLY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM COVERAGE INCREASING AHEAD OF IT.
700-300MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FURTHER AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE
DRIER 850MB AIR MOVES OVER WESTERN CHEYENNE...KIT CARSON AND
GREELEY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL
THERE.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL START THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. A
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. FOR MORE
SPECIFIC INFORMATION REGARDING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS CONSULT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SW FLOW STILL IN PACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KS WITH A LONG FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTER COLORADO WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS AND ARE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. THERE IS MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE AND BULK
EFFECTIVE SHEER AROUND 35-45KT...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH
IS NOT GREAT EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KS AND A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
PATTERN WHICH WILL IMPACT INITIATION AND BEST AXIS OF
SHEER/INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. FOR NOW IT
DOES APPEAR MOST GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON WINDS FROM
YESTERDAY...SO NO WIND ADVISORY I CURRENT PLANNED IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
ECMWF/NAM BOTH SHOW TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
ALLOW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
FAR WEST AT THE HIGHWAY 25/HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDORS. GFS HAS A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AS IT SHIFTS THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST
MUCH QUICKER...SHUNTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEFT SEVERE MENTION
AND HEAVY RAIN MENTION. WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST WE SHOULD SEE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD CAPE/SHEER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY FORMING INTO A SQUALL LINE OR THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER OVER OUR FAR EAST (OR OUTSIDE OUR CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST).
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE OVER
PARTS OF OUR CWA...THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
FLOW PLACING BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON STATIONARY/WARM FRONT POSITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
WILL NOT ONLY IMPACT DAYTIME TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN OUR CWA. GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND IF THIS PANS OUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA
MAY REMAIN DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND HIGHS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE CWA COULD APPROACH 100F. IF THE FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH WE
COULD SE A LARGE TEMP SPREAD TUESDAY FROM LOW 80S IN THE NORTH
(MCCOOK) TO 100F IN THE SOUTH (TRIBUNE). NAM/GEM/ECMWF FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW I LEANED MORE TOWARDS A CONSERVATIVE BLEND
FAVORING THIS LARGER SPREAD RATHER THAN THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WE REACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR PRECIP EVENTS OF A
HALF INCH OR GREATER AT GLD. OVERALL GREAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ALLOWING FOR
A NUMBER OF QUICK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HARD TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE
ACROSS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP...BUT AM CONFIDENT THAT WE
WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS MOST DAYS. EASTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL
PROVIDE FOR AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES OF OVER AN INCH AND SLOW
STORM MOTION VALUE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE DOES EXIST FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER EACH DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ENOUGH TO
PIN POINT ANY DAY IN PARTICULAR DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TIMING THE START OF THUNDERSTORMS IS RATHER DIFFICULT
GIVEN THEY WILL INITIALLY BE FAIRLY SCATTERED. INCLUDED A VCTS
MENTION AS A RESULT. KGLD WILL BE ON THE FAR WEST EDGE OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER BUT KMCK COULD BE IN THE MUCH BETTER PLACEMENT.
WILL NOT PLACE A MENTION OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE SITE. HOWEVER WILL AMEND THE TAF AS NEEDED.
OVERNIGHT THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO MOVE OVER THE
TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1124 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
UPDATED FORECAST FOR TODAY TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS. BIGGEST CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS MODELS HAVE SPED UP
THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY AM
THINKING STORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN KIT CARSON AND YUMA
COUNTIES. WITH BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND VERY
LITTLE CINH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...ANTICIPATE STORMS TO DEVELOP SPORADICALLY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM COVERAGE INCREASING AHEAD OF IT.
700-300MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FURTHER AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE
DRIER 850MB AIR MOVES OVER WESTERN CHEYENNE...KIT CARSON AND
GREELEY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL
THERE.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL START THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. A
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. FOR MORE
SPECIFIC INFORMATION REGARDING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS CONSULT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SW FLOW STILL IN PACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KS WITH A LONG FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTER COLORADO WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH
EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS AND ARE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. THERE IS MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE AND BULK
EFFECTIVE SHEER AROUND 35-45KT...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR NORTH
IS NOT GREAT EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KS AND A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
PATTERN WHICH WILL IMPACT INITIATION AND BEST AXIS OF
SHEER/INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF WINDS. FOR NOW IT
DOES APPEAR MOST GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON WINDS FROM
YESTERDAY...SO NO WIND ADVISORY I CURRENT PLANNED IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
ECMWF/NAM BOTH SHOW TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
ALLOW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
FAR WEST AT THE HIGHWAY 25/HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDORS. GFS HAS A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AS IT SHIFTS THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST
MUCH QUICKER...SHUNTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LEFT SEVERE MENTION
AND HEAVY RAIN MENTION. WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST WE SHOULD SEE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD CAPE/SHEER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY FORMING INTO A SQUALL LINE OR THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER OVER OUR FAR EAST (OR OUTSIDE OUR CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST).
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE OVER
PARTS OF OUR CWA...THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
FLOW PLACING BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON STATIONARY/WARM FRONT POSITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
WILL NOT ONLY IMPACT DAYTIME TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN OUR CWA. GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND IF THIS PANS OUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA
MAY REMAIN DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND HIGHS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE CWA COULD APPROACH 100F. IF THE FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH WE
COULD SE A LARGE TEMP SPREAD TUESDAY FROM LOW 80S IN THE NORTH
(MCCOOK) TO 100F IN THE SOUTH (TRIBUNE). NAM/GEM/ECMWF FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW I LEANED MORE TOWARDS A CONSERVATIVE BLEND
FAVORING THIS LARGER SPREAD RATHER THAN THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WE REACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR PRECIP EVENTS OF A
HALF INCH OR GREATER AT GLD. OVERALL GREAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ALLOWING FOR
A NUMBER OF QUICK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HARD TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE
ACROSS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP...BUT AM CONFIDENT THAT WE
WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS MOST DAYS. EASTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL
PROVIDE FOR AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES OF OVER AN INCH AND SLOW
STORM MOTION VALUE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE DOES EXIST FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER EACH DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ENOUGH TO
PIN POINT ANY DAY IN PARTICULAR DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THIS MORNING...MONITORING STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 800-1000FT AGL IN
EASTERN COLORADO NEAR KLIC WHICH COULD SPREAD EAST TOWARDS KGLD.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LOWER CIGS OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
ALSO MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST
TOWARD KMCK. RIGHT NOW COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ENOUGH I
DECIDE TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCSH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE TERMINAL AROUND MID MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT COULD
FEED OFF INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BUILDING EARLIER AND CONTINUING AT KMCK ALL DAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY DOESNT FAVOR THIS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
THE REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA. BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL AGAIN BE AT
KMCK WHERE PREVAILING TSRA GROUP WAS ADDED. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG ERRATIC WINDS AT EITHER
TERMINAL...BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS AT KMCK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
655 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
VIRGINIA. THIS FLOW HAS BROUGHT AMPLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE STATE RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE JKL CWA THE
PCPN HAS BEEN MORE FLEETING WITH JUST A FEW PINHEAD SHOWERS NOTED...
LARGELY DUE TO A WARM NOTCH AROUND 650 MBS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S...SO THE INSTABILITY IS THERE BUT ANY TRIGGERS HAVE BEEN TOO WEAK
TO SUSTAIN STORMS HERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
BEEN SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON RADAR. THE HRRR SEEMS OUT OF
TOUCH WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A POP UP SO HAVE NOT REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM
THE GRIDS. A BETTER CHANCE MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING PER MULTIPLE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
THE NAM12. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED SOME LOW...BUT RELEVANT...
POPS IN THIS PART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND VALLEY FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THESE GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF JACKSON. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWN
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT THAT WILL ACT AS A CAP AND KEEP
ALL THE BUILDUPS BELOW 12K FEET. AS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN AND THE AREAL
EXTEND WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DROP OFF AGAIN
NEAR DAWN AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTING THE GFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
UNREALISTIC DEWPOINTS THE MODEL IS GENERATING. WITH THE DEWPOINTS TO
HIGH...IT TAKES MUCH LESS CONVECTION AND LIFT TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL CHOICE HAS BEEN THE NAM AND HRRR FOR THE
FORECAST. THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE LOWS A
BIT HIGHER AND THE HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATION
ADJUSTMENTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THE FIRST OF A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA
FIRST THING TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP WITH THE FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKELY TO GET
ANY MID LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUPPORT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM
AND LIKELY DROP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHES IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK TO
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT NEAR THE AREA AGAIN...THIS WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST BY SATURDAY WITH GFS AND ECMWF
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES OFF TO THE SOUTH
WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...OPTED TO SQUEEZE A FEW DRY PERIODS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
AND LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...CIGS AROUND 4K CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WHEN THERE ARE ENOUGH CLOUDS FOR A CIG. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
AFFECT VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR DAWN MONDAY...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY
TO HAVE AN EFFECT AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
255 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF JACKSON. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWN
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT THAT WILL ACT AS A CAP AND KEEP
ALL THE BUILDUPS BELOW 12K FEET. AS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN AND THE AREAL
EXTEND WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DROP OFF AGAIN
NEAR DAWN AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTING THE GFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
UNREALISTIC DEWPOINTS THE MODEL IS GENERATING. WITH THE DEWPOINTS TO
HIGH...IT TAKES MUCH LESS CONVECTION AND LIFT TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL CHOICE HAS BEEN THE NAM AND HRRR FOR THE
FORECAST. THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE LOWS A
BIT HIGHER AND THE HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATION
ADJUSTMENTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THE FIRST OF A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA
FIRST THING TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP WITH THE FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKELY TO GET
ANY MID LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUPPORT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME. AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...AN MCS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM
AND LIKELY DROP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHES IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK TO
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT NEAR THE AREA AGAIN...THIS WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST BY SATURDAY WITH GFS AND ECMWF
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES OFF TO THE SOUTH
WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...OPTED TO SQUEEZE A FEW DRY PERIODS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
AND LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SME HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A STORM NEARBY
TODAY...HOWEVER THAT CHANCE IS SLIM AT BEST. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR
ALOFT THAT WILL BE CAPPING MOST OF THE STORMS THAT TRY TO BUILD
TODAY...HOWEVER A STORM HERE OR THERE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. PUT A
VCSH AT LOZ AND SME. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS NEAR DAWN...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY AT THE TAF LOCATIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
201 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF JACKSON. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWN
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT THAT WILL ACT AS A CAP AND KEEP
ALL THE BUILDUPS BELOW 12K FEET. AS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN AND THE AREAL
EXTEND WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DROP OFF AGAIN
NEAR DAWN AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTING THE GFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
UNREALISTIC DEWPOINTS THE MODEL IS GENERATING. WITH THE DEWPOINTS TO
HIGH...IT TAKES MUCH LESS CONVECTION AND LIFT TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL CHOICE HAS BEEN THE NAM AND HRRR FOR THE
FORECAST. THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE LOWS A
BIT HIGHER AND THE HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATION
ADJUSTMENTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SME HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A STORM NEARBY
TODAY...HOWEVER THAT CHANCE IS SLIM AT BEST. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR
ALOFT THAT WILL BE CAPPING MOST OF THE STORMS THAT TRY TO BUILD
TODAY...HOWEVER A STORM HERE OR THERE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. PUT A
VCSH AT LOZ AND SME. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS NEAR DAWN...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY AT THE TAF LOCATIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS WEAK VORT MAX MOVES NORTHEAST AS WELL. MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR MESO MODEL IS DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB OF
INITIALIZING ONGOING PRECIP. GOING ALONG WITH ITS OUTPUT...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH W/IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS AND THUS HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF CHANCE POPS THERE.
.LONG TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE AREA FOR NEARLY A WEEK IS FINALLY BEING STRETCHED OUT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS VERY GOOD NEWS
FOR THE CWA WHICH I THINK EVERYONE WILL AGREE HAS HAD ENOUGH OF THIS
RAIN. THATS NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL GO AWAY WITHOUT A FIGHT. THE
TRANSITION TIME BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WELL
ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL STILL BE FILLED WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER POPS IN GENERAL. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THERE WILL
SHOULD BE DECENT RAIN COVERAGE. HAVE KEPT ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH SHOULD BE LESS COVERAGE THAN THAT OF
LATE. WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL BE BACK IN LINE WITH MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND A FEW
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTION
BTR...MCB...HDC..MSY AND ASD AT 18Z. OFF AND ON CONVECTION WILL
WARRANT TEMPO GROUPS IN ALL TAF SITES WITH RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY AND LOWERED CEILINGS THROUGH 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 23Z WITH CEILINGS STEADY BETWEEN
2 AND 3KFT OVERNIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST LIGHT FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING AFTER 14Z MONDAY. 18
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE PERIOD WITH WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING ISOLATED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
11/MEFFER
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 85 70 87 / 20 50 20 30
BTR 71 86 72 89 / 20 50 20 30
ASD 71 85 72 86 / 20 50 20 40
MSY 74 85 74 86 / 20 50 20 40
GPT 73 83 74 84 / 20 50 30 40
PQL 72 83 71 85 / 30 50 30 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
434 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL HANDLING
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF WI...WHERE
THEY HAD FEWER CLOUDS /INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY/. MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ARE ABUNDANT IN THIS AREA...AND AS EXPECTED
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF AWAY FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI.
GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.5 IN OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 180-220 PERCENT OF NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR 1.6 TO 1.8IN. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT OR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN
WI...AROUND 45MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR AREA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A BIT
STRONGER...EVEN THROUGH INSTABILITY LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO MORE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FAR E UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 10-15KTS...TEMPS
HAVE ROSE NEAR 80F INLAND FROM LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON...AND HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT /MAINLY AT RACO/. THE WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z...AND WAS TAKEN
OFF THE TOP NEWS EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO NEAR THIS
AREA...BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC IS KEEPING MUCH IF ANYTHING FROM
ACCUMULATING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...NOT ONLY AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 50S.
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR W WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY...LIKELY AROUND SE LAKE SUPERIOR/E UPPER
MI. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE
SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID 70S OVER THE W HALF...AND LIKELY FAR E UPPER MI ON MONDAY.
LOOK FOR MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RESIDE OF THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z /NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THERE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST/...BEFORE EXPANDING E THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AFTER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...FCST WILL HINGE UPON HOW FAST THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN OR HOW FAST IT IS FORCED E BY NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS W AND
CNTRL NAMERICA. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WET WEATHER HERE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA...THEN DRY WEATHER MID
AND LATE WEEK AS APPROACHING MID/UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A TYPICAL
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN AS ICE FILLED HUDSON BAY AND THE CHILLY
GREAT LAKES ENHANCE SFC HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT. IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...TEMPS THIS WEEK SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM EARLY JUNE
NORMALS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TEMPS SOMEWHAT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST WEATHER IN THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
BEGINNING MON NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR OR PERHAPS FAR WRN UPPER MI AND THEN ON INTO NRN ONTARIO BY
TUE MORNING. BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL
BE DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE AS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA AND MIDLEVEL DRYING ARRIVES. THIS DRYING IS MORE PRONOUNCED
OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS...MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN
MON AFTN MOVING INTO UPPER MI EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE W MON NIGHT. ALONG WITH APPROACH
OF THE ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROF...SOME SHRA WILL
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE W. AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPS E ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SHRA CHANCES WILL SPREAD E TUE
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING MAY FURTHER AID EXPANSION OF SHRA TUE OVER
THE E. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER OVER
THE E...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS EARLY IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH ALMOST NO MLCAPE INDICATED...WILL LEAVE THUNDER
MENTION OUT. BULK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY
JUST N OF UPPER MI...SO STEADIER RAIN SHOULD PASS BY TO THE N.
HOWEVER...THE KEWEENAW MAY GET BRUSHED BY THE MORE PERSISTENT SHRA
TUE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
CHILLY/MISERABLE AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND
BRISK WNW WINDS OFF COLD LAKE SUPERIOR. FOG THAT WILL BE EXPANDING
AND BECOMING MORE DENSE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/MON AND PROBABLY
DEVELOPING ON NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKES WHENEVER WINDS ARE ONSHORE. THE FOG WILL CLEAR OFF THE
LAKES TUE.
LINGERING SHRA SHOULD END FROM SW TO NE TUE AFTN AND TUE NIGHT AS
MID/UPPER TROF SLOWLY EDGES E. WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR WED/THU AS MID/UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
-SHRA/SPRINKLES AT SOME POINT LATER WED/EARLY THU DUE TO ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE ECMWF IS STRONGEST
WITH THIS FEATURE...FOLLOWED BY THE GEM. THE GFS IS WEAKEST AND
SHOWS NO IMPACT FROM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BACKING OFF ON
THIS WAVE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/PARTLY CLOUDY FCST. ALSO...CONCERNS
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SHORTWAVES TRACKING E ACROSS THE
CNTRL CONUS AND BRINGING A SHRA THREAT TO THE FCST AREA ARE
BASICALLY GONE NOW AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW DEPARTING
TROF/APPROACHING RIDGE SUPPRESSING SHORTWAVES. OTHERWISE...GRADIENT
NRLY WIND DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING S FROM NRN MANITOBA/HUDSON
BAY/NRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD A CHILLY DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON WED.
EXPECT 50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH MANY LAKESIDE LOCATIONS PROBABLY
HOLDING IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WELL IN THE INTERIOR...
EXPECT 60S TO LWR 70S. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW SIDE
OF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR
MASS. THU NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES
RIDGE OVERHEAD. TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS MIGHT SLIP INTO THE UPPER
30S.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...FCST FOR FRI THRU THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS W AND CNTRL NAMERICA CAN
EITHER PUSH RIDGE EASTWARD OR SUPPRESS IT. USUALLY THERE IS A BIAS
TO BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO QUICKLY IN THE LONGER RANGE...SO PLAN TO
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN REPRESENTED BY THE
ECMWF FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER
TO LINGER FRI/SAT AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
TO HUDSON BAY. TRAILING...DECAYING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE
MAY BRING SOME -SHRA INTO WRN UPPER MI AS EARLY AS LATE FRI. WILL BE
SOMETHING TO LOOK FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR SUN AS IT APPEARS TROF WILL FORCE RIDGE
EASTWARD. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER FRI/SAT...BUT
OVERALL...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUMPED NNE AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED LOW
STRETCHING FROM E CO UP THROUGH MN AND N LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT SAW FROM 2130-23Z...SLIDING IN
FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR /WHERE THEY HAD MORE EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE ACROSS WI/. LOOK FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND FOG CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER W
LAKE SUPERIOR AND N LAKE MI TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON LIGHT S
WINDS. EXPECT THE MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK
MONDAY TO PUSH INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT IWD AND CMX. BEST CHANCE OF VIS FALLING
BELOW LIFR WILL BE AT CMX FROM 06Z THROUGH MID MORNING...WHERE LIGHT
WINDS MAY TURN MORE UPSLOPE/EASTERLY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FALL BELOW 3MI VIS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE W HALF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE E HALF. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS W LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS A LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S
JAMES BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON
BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-
240>244-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL HANDLING
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF WI...WHERE
THEY HAD FEWER CLOUDS /INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY/. MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ARE ABUNDANT IN THIS AREA...AND AS EXPECTED
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF AWAY FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI.
GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.5 IN OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 180-220 PERCENT OF NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR 1.6 TO 1.8IN. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT OR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN
WI...AROUND 45MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR AREA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A BIT
STRONGER...EVEN THROUGH INSTABILITY LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO MORE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FAR E UPPER MI...WHERE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 10-15KTS...TEMPS
HAVE ROSE NEAR 80F INLAND FROM LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON...AND HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT /MAINLY AT RACO/. THE WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z...AND WAS TAKEN
OFF THE TOP NEWS EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO NEAR THIS
AREA...BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC IS KEEPING MUCH IF ANYTHING FROM
ACCUMULATING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...NOT ONLY AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 50S.
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR W WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY...LIKELY AROUND SE LAKE SUPERIOR/E UPPER
MI. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE
SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID 70S OVER THE W HALF...AND LIKELY FAR E UPPER MI ON MONDAY.
LOOK FOR MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RESIDE OF THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z /NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THERE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST/...BEFORE EXPANDING E THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY (LIKELY AROUND SOUTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR OR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN). THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS (FROM
IDAHO THROUGH NEVADA) AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...THEY WILL HELP STRENGTHEN
A SURFACE LOW (CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES) TO
AROUND 997MB AND MOVE IT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MODELS HAS IT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 00-09Z
ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AND NORTHERN
QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. ONE THING TO WATCH IS BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND
GEM-REGIONAL HAVE COME IN MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE LOW
TRACK (MOVING IT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MINNESOTA)...BUT IT
MAY BE TIED MORE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A FEW WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW. FIRST WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY MORNING...AS FLOW TURNS
TO THE SOUTH AND LEADS TO BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. IT WILL
INITIALLY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK AND SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE BROAD WAA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THAT WAA TAKES SHAPE...WOULD EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BASED OFF THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
AS THAT SHIFT NORTH...ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OR TROUGH...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL
SOLUTION...AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND IT. THIS WILL
LARGELY AFFECT THE WEST/CENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN
SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. BEHIND THIS CONVECTION...EXPECT
DRY MID LEVEL AIR TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE ARRIVES.
THINK THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN. PWATS ARE 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING A TALL/SKINNY CAPE (MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG) WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH OF 10KFT. CONSISTENT WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS WOULD
SUPPORT SLOW RELATIVE MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IF
BACKBUILDING CAN OCCUR AS SEEN IN CORFIDI VECTORS. ALL OF THIS ADDS
UP TO A DECENT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THINK
OTHER SEVERE THREATS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED...UNLESS THE AFTERNOON
STORMS CAN TAP SOME OF THE MID LEVEL DRYING AND PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WINDS.
THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND BEHIND THE LOW AND HELP FROM A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY WOULD SUPPORT HAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA (BEST CHANCES OVER THE WEST). THUNDER CHANCES
LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN.
DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THERE TO BE FOG OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...HAVE FOLLOWED WIND
DIRECTIONS ON WHERE TO PULL THE FOG ONSHORE. THERE COULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO AFFECT SOME OF THE
SHORELINE AREAS.
BEHIND THE LOW...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS. THESE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
EAST FROM NEBRASKA TO OHIO ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE THEN
LOOKS TO REMAIN INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN AND FAR NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION JUST OFF TO THE WEST
AND PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AFTER A FEW
DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RETURN TO MORE NORMAL EARLY JUNE VALUES. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
FROM WEDNESDAY ON WILL BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE
PREEXISTING NORTHERLY FLOW AND HELP FROM ANY LAKE BREEZES THAT
DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUMPED NNE AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED LOW
STRETCHING FROM E CO UP THROUGH MN AND N LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT SAW FROM 2130-23Z...SLIDING IN
FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR /WHERE THEY HAD MORE EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE ACROSS WI/. LOOK FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND FOG CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER W
LAKE SUPERIOR AND N LAKE MI TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON LIGHT S
WINDS. EXPECT THE MAIN LOW OVER THE E MN/W WI BORDER AT DAYBREAK
MONDAY TO PUSH INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT IWD AND CMX. BEST CHANCE OF VIS FALLING
BELOW LIFR WILL BE AT CMX FROM 06Z THROUGH MID MORNING...WHERE LIGHT
WINDS MAY TURN MORE UPSLOPE/EASTERLY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FALL BELOW 3MI VIS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE W HALF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE E HALF. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS W LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS A LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S
JAMES BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A HIGH ACROSS W HUDSON
BAY TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-
240>244-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
413 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
STILL STUCK IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN TO START THIS PERIOD...THOUGH
WE WILL FINALLY START TURNING THE CORNER IN TERMS OF ROOTING THIS
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OUT OF HERE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...THERE ARE TWO KEY FEATURES THAT WILL IMPACT THE MPX
CWA...THE FIRST IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER SE SODAK THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MPX
AREA AS IT WORK NE THIS EVENING. THE SECOND FEATURE IS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH BACK BY THE BLACK HILLS THAT WILL BRING A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LIGHTER AND LIKELY MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF SW
MN INTO THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
OUT THE GATE...WE HAVE SEE AN E-W ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS NRN IA WITHIN A ZONE OF CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT IS
GETTING FORCED UP AND OVER AN OUTFLOW INDUCED BOUNDARY. BIG QUESTION
FOR THE MPX AREA IS HOW WILL THIS IMPACT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY
FROM ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THIS WILL KEEP THE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE TRAINING IS MORE
LIKELY...BUT MESOANALYSIS HAS SHOWN THAT MLCAPES ACROSS WRN MN HAVE
RECOVERED TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OUT IN WRN MN WHERE THE SUN
HAS BRIEFLY MADE AN APPEARANCE. AS THIS CLEARING WORKS EAST...DO
EXPECT THE CAPE RECOVERY TO WORK EAST WITH IT AS WELL...SO LINE
CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE NEAR SIOUX FALLS WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO
SRN MN. FOLLOWED THE HRRR TO WORK THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AS IT HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON IT ALL AFTERNOON
AND IT MATCHES UP WELL WITH HOW THE HRRR BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE OF
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO MN AHEAD OF THE SODAK SHORT
WAVE. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE ABOUT TODAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
IS WE ACTUALLY HAVE SHEAR TODAY...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MAINLY
WIND THREAT WITH THIS LINE AS IT WORKS ENE. THERE IS GOOD NEWS
THOUGH ABOUT THE ADDITION OF SHEAR TODAY...AND THAT IS THAT ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AS WE HEAD FARTHER OUT IN
TIME...SO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...NSSL Q3 RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A LARGE SWATH
OF OUR AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH PARTS WESTERN
STEARNS COUNTY UP CLOSER TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT. SO
ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTED THIS NEXT BATCH OF STORMS TO BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...RECENT WET CONDITIONS HAVE OUR FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS
AT INCREDIBLY LOW LEVELS AT THE MOMENT...WITH CURRENT 1 HR AND 3 HR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DOWN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.
THIS SECONDARY WAVE BACK IN NODAK IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE AS
TO HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITH IT...BUT EXPECT IT TO INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE NW CWA LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. GOING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...THIS WILL WILL TRAVEL
MORE OR LESS DOWN I-94...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDS. FORTUNATELY...ANY ACTIVITY WE
SEE MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHTER /AS PWATS BEGIN TO RECEDE FROM
THERE CURRENT LEVELS AROUND 1.75 INCHES...WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. SO FOR THAT
REASON...CONTINUED TO LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE THROUGH 18Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
BY MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT... AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME NEED TO KEEP POPS GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES
LINGERING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.
AFTER THAT... WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO KEEP THINGS DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... AT THAT POINT
WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEP
BACK NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA... CLOSER TO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY... FRONTOGENESIS... AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER... CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PCPN FARTHER NORTH GIVEN
SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE 700-500MB LAYER AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED NORTH AND SATURATE THINGS NEAR 700MB.
SO... ALLOWED FOR CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SCOOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
NEXT SYSTEM AFTER THAT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY AS FLOW TURNS A
LITTLE MORE ZONAL. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THEN HEADS MORE EASTERLY BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEAST AGAIN. MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF ANY LEAD
SHORT WAVES AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT LOOKS
LIKE MN/WI WILL BE BACK IN UPPER SW FLOW LATE THIS WEEK...MERITING
CHANCE POPS. WITH UPPER LOW NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE BORDER... THIS
WILL NOT BE AN EXCEEDINGLY WARM PERIOD...AND IN FACT...TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. ONCE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
NEXT WEEKEND...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 70 NEXT WEEKEND OVER CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WISC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FOR THE FIRST THREE HOURS...EXPECT FOCUS FOR STORMS TO SHIFT INTO
SRN/SE MN WITH MAINLY SHRA FOR WI TERMINALS. EXPECT THIS FOCUS TO
BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WAVE OVER NEB LEADS TO ANOTHER NORTHWARD
SURGE IN THE LLJ. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF MEMBERS
FOR BRING THIS SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO THE AREA...WHICH WAS
ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN GOING TAFS. MAIN CHANGE WITH 18Z TAF WAS
TO BACK DOWN ON TS MENTION FOR AXN/STC AS THE MAIN TSRA ACTIVITY
WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO GO SOUTH OF THESE FIELDS. AS THE SFC LOW
WANDERS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES BAGGY...WE
SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS EXPAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...THOUGH HRRR CIG FORECAST WOULD INDICATE THE GFSLAMP IS
OVERDOING THINGS A BIT...SO TOOK A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO
CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...WILL START TO SEE THE COLD FRONT MAKE DECENT
PROGRESS ACROSS WI AS WRLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
SHOULD ALSO HELP IMPROVE ANY LOWER CIGS LEFT OVER IN THE MORNING.
KMSP...CONFIDENT HIGH IN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TEMPORARY LULL IN TSRA HAPPENING
UNTIL ACTIVITY FROM NEB WAVE ARRIVES. BASED ON THE HRRR AND HOPWRF
MEMBERS...THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 1Z AND 3Z...WITH
MORE TEMPORARY IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN +TSRA. THESE STORMS MAY BLOW
OUT OF THE MSP AREA A BIT FASTER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON CIG LEVELS BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND BAGGY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS OR
EVEN FOG. FOR THE AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO GENERATE MORE SCT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO INSERTED A VCSH FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR PSBL WITH SCHC TSRA EARLY...THEN VFR. WIND WNW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ041>045-
047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...TDK/TRH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
129 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE SECOND WAVE OF TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SW MN DUE TO THE
INCREASING LLJ THAT HAS INCREASED SINCE SATURDAY EVENING. BASED ON
THIS CONTINUED LLJ WHICH WILL FOCUS THE SHRA/TSRA ALONG A SW/NE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MN...CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER. THE MAIN
PROBLEM AFTER THIS LLJ WEAKENS THIS MORNING...WHERE WILL THE
BOUNDARY HOLD UP ONCE THE TSRA DECREASE. FFA REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 AM...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE FOR MORE CONVECTION FIRING THIS
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT...WILL LIKELY EXTEND THE WATCH AT LEAST UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN EXTREMELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN ORDER OF 2 OR GREATER.
THUS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES WILL LEAD TO
FLOODING. WITH ALREADY AREAS RECEIVING BETWEEN 2 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF EC
MN...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE. SVR WX THREAT WILL REMAIN
THE FLOODING ASPECT...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SVR WIND
GUST/LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTN. SHEAR
VALUES HAVE INCREASED SOME...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN/TSTMS TO CONTINUE INTO MON AS
THE LOW PRES CENTER TAKES A POSITION OVER ERN MN INTO WRN WI...
BCMG MORE WOUND UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WHILE AN UPR LVL TROF
EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE UPR LVL LOW WILL HELP LIFT THE SFC
FEATURE OUT OF THE AREA BY MON NIGHT...BUT PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM...PRODUCING ADDITIONAL LIGHTER
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY CENTRAL-NRN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE MON
NIGHT... THEN INTO ERN MN AND WRN WI TUE MRNG BEFORE EXITING. THE
MAIN HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE HVY RAIN SINCE UPR LVL SUPPORT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS VERY WEAK DESPITE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
THE ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. PWATS FOR MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT LEAST ARND 1.5 INCHES...SOME SPOTS IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE
COVERAGE AREA HIGHER...AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VIRTUALLY
NO CAPPING AND WEAK STORM MOTIONS...MAKING THEM EFFICIENT
RAINMAKERS. COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS DRIER
HIGH PRES ARRIVES...ALLOWING FOR A PRECIP-FREE PERIOD STARTING
MIDDAY TUE. AS FOR TEMPS...THE PASSAGE OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN TEMPS WILL DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES MON INTO TUE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CAA IS EXPECTED
AS FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ZONAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO
LOOK ACTIVE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS
DEVELOPING OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH MAY IMPACT THE AREA.
THE FIRST OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE S OF THE
COVERAGE AREA WED INTO THU...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SLOWLY
MOVE IN FROM THE NW FRI INTO SAT. NEITHER ONE LOOKS PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT WITHIN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN
THE REGION /HIGH MOISTURE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT...MODEST
INSTABILITY/...THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FOR AN ALREADY VERY SOGGY AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
FOR THE FIRST THREE HOURS...EXPECT FOCUS FOR STORMS TO SHIFT INTO
SRN/SE MN WITH MAINLY SHRA FOR WI TERMINALS. EXPECT THIS FOCUS TO
BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WAVE OVER NEB LEADS TO ANOTHER NORTHWARD
SURGE IN THE LLJ. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF MEMBERS
FOR BRING THIS SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO THE AREA...WHICH WAS
ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN GOING TAFS. MAIN CHANGE WITH 18Z TAF WAS
TO BACK DOWN ON TS MENTION FOR AXN/STC AS THE MAIN TSRA ACTIVITY
WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO GO SOUTH OF THESE FIELDS. AS THE SFC LOW
WANDERS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES BAGGY...WE
SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS EXPAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...THOUGH HRRR CIG FORECAST WOULD INDICATE THE GFSLAMP IS
OVERDOING THINGS A BIT...SO TOOK A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO
CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...WILL START TO SEE THE COLD FRONT MAKE DECENT
PROGRESS ACROSS WI AS WRLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
SHOULD ALSO HELP IMPROVE ANY LOWER CIGS LEFT OVER IN THE MORNING.
KMSP...CONFIDENT HIGH IN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TEMPORARY LULL IN TSRA HAPPENING
UNTIL ACTIVITY FROM NEB WAVE ARRIVES. BASED ON THE HRRR AND HOPWRF
MEMBERS...THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 1Z AND 3Z...WITH
MORE TEMPORARY IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN +TSRA. THESE STORMS MAY BLOW
OUT OF THE MSP AREA A BIT FASTER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON CIG LEVELS BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND BAGGY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS OR
EVEN FOG. FOR THE AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO GENERATE MORE SCT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO INSERTED A VCSH FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR PSBL WITH SCHC TSRA EARLY...THEN VFR. WIND WNW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ041>045-
047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
359 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
Overall pattern has changed to a more progressive and unsettled
regime through the upcoming week. While there will no doubt be
periods when there will be no precipitation the proximity of a
couple frontal boundaries and the vagaries of the models further out
in time will make it difficult to go dry in most periods.
Short term concerns will focus on the evolution of upstream
convection over NE and KS and any severe threat over northwest MO. A
number of Hi Res models such as the HRRR and local WRF as well as
the latest NAM and GFS track the current developing NE MCS eastward.
At the same time activity blossoms southward towards central KS
where a strengthening southerly low-level jet feeds moderately
unstable air under an increasingly diffluent flow aloft. Too many
models favor this evolution to ignore. These models propagate the KS
convection southeast this evening which is supported by the Corfidi
vectors. As the the low level jet veers overnight it will maintain
the KS MCS as it moves into southwest MO. The convection in between
these two core MCSs will likely weaken as it moves into the western
CWA late this evening. The severe threat will be confined to
northwest MO this evening with an isolated severe wind gust
possible.
By sunrise the main portion of the convection is expected to be near
or have exited the eastern and southern counties. However, can`t
rule out scattered convection bubbling back up during the morning
and afternoon hours as the southwesterly low-level jet will enhance
convergence along any residual outflow boundaries as well as a weak
cold front entering the CWA. Temperatures will be problematic due to
any convection as well as residual cloud cover.
Monday night into Tuesday could see scattered convection pop-up
wherever the weak cold front stalls, which favors the southern
counties. Shortwave riding aloft spreads eastward across the Central
Plains on Tuesday allowing an elevated warm mixed layer to spread
east while the front retreats northeast as a warm front. As has been
noted for the last couple of days the combination of moderate to
strong shear coupled with strong instability and the added low-level
shear along/north of the warm front signal the increasing likelihood
of severe storms along and north of the warm front. Models have been
trending lifting the warm front further north over the past couple
of runs, pushing the convection and severe threat from northern MO
into IA.
Wednesday could see a trailing cold front settle south through the
CWA, but not before temperatures could reach 90 over the southern
half of the forecast area. This boundary will become the focus for
any additional rain chances. The GFS and ECMWF have settle this
front to near the MO/AR border by Thursday before it stalls.
Confidence has improved on this occurring and have started to lower
PoPs across at least northern MO for Thursday and Friday. Convective
chances increase as we head into next weekend as another moderately
strong upper trough sweeps through the Rockies and forces the front
north as a warm front, allowing rain chances to increase over the
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
VFR with moderately strong southerly winds till later this evening.
While models are in generally good agreement on developing a couple
of MCSs upstream of the terminals this afternoon/evening, there is
considerable uncertainty on how they evolve these features and their
arrival time. Leaning towards the last couple of runs of the HRRR
although slowing it down some based on other short range model output
as well as NAM/GFS. Will take a first shot at defining a window via
TEMPO group knowing that later forecasts will shift timing some. The
post MCS environment will likely yield chaotic winds for several
hours before settling on winds veering to the southwest. Ceilings run
the whole gamut from MVFR to mid level VFR. Also can`t rule out
residual convection reforming in the wake of the MCS.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
340 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE UNTIL A MORE BONAFIDE CHANCE
OF STORMS RETURNS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH EVEN THEN THE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAY ONLY COME IN AN ISOLATED DOSE.
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SEEN ACROSS
THE AREA AT MID AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS MARGINAL
BUOYANCY DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. IN THE MEAN-
TIME...SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AS
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND PARK CITY THIS AFTERNOON /WHERE WE HAD
PEA-SIZE HAIL REPORTED EARLIER/. WE GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS ALONG
WITH MOST 12 UTC GUIDANCE AND MORE RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS...SUCH
THAT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 30S IN SOME WESTERN
VALLEYS LIKE AROUND LIVINGSTON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.
MON...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S F IN MOST AREAS GIVEN MUCH MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE THAT TODAY. WE FOLLOWED THE 12 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED/
MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF MOS OUTPUT TO BUILD FORECAST HIGHS SINCE THAT
GUIDANCE OFTEN DOES WELL COME SUMMER...AND IT HAS VERIFIED WELL ON
SOME DAYS RECENTLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT...PERHAPS SLIDING AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS BY
MON NIGHT...BUT THAT CHANCE IS DRIVEN BY ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND
SO THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS IS VERY LOW THROUGH MON NIGHT.
TUE...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
IS APT TO BE AUGMENTED SOMEWHAT FROM LOCAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...SO
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN COULD BE DISRUPTED IF THERE
IS ENOUGH DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OVER WESTERN SD
AND NORTHERN NEB EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TUE AS SOME 12 UTC MODELS
SUGGEST. EVEN SO...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
YIELD MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG...AND MORE LIKE 1000 J/KG IF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT STYMIED TOO MUCH. WE ARE CARRYING
40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES OF STORMS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT OVER MOST OF
THE AREA /A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER PRIOR FORECASTS/. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE 12
UTC GUIDANCE AND 09 AND 15 UTC SREF RUNS FOR THE 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR
TO BE LESS THAN 30 KT ACROSS THE AREA AND IF THAT IS THE CASE THEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN MARGINAL AND TRANSIENT SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOST DAYS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES MAY COOL TO
BELOW-AVERAGE VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SHOWS A MEAN 500-MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES IN
THAT LARGER-SCALE PATTERN. THE FIRST OF THOSE WAVES SET FOR WED IS
IN THE BEST POSITION TO HAVE ACCESS TO DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORTED
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THAT WAVE MAY BE IN THE DAKOTAS BY PEAK HEATING
WED AFTERNOON WHEN IT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO FOSTER STORMS.
A STRONGER WAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION THU INTO FRI MAY END UP
BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND WE DID
DECIDE TO LOWER FORECAST TEMPERATURES THU THROUGH SAT USING THE 12
UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WE ACTUALLY CHOSE TO STAY ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF THAT CONSENSUS EVEN THOUGH WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THOUGH.
THAT WAS IN RESPECT TO 1/ MAINTAINING SOME FORECAST CONTINUITY AND
2/ THE VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE EARLY JUNE SUN ANGLE WILL BE
GOOD ENOUGH TO WARM HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IF THE SHOWER COVERAGE
IS NOT TOO GREAT. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY INTO THE EVENING DUE TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THAT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AS
THE SUN SETS...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY 06 UTC THAT
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18 UTC MONDAY. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/074 051/077 053/076 052/071 049/068 047/071 052/079
31/B 24/T 53/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 038/074 045/075 045/073 043/070 042/068 042/069 044/077
43/T 35/T 43/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 046/076 049/079 053/077 051/073 048/071 048/072 049/080
31/B 24/T 43/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
MLS 048/073 050/077 055/077 055/073 048/068 049/072 051/079
31/U 13/T 44/T 33/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 047/074 050/074 053/076 053/073 049/067 050/072 049/078
31/U 14/T 44/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
BHK 046/068 047/073 052/074 052/071 047/066 047/068 048/073
41/B 12/T 44/T 43/T 33/T 33/T 22/T
SHR 043/074 047/074 048/073 048/070 044/068 045/069 046/076
31/B 24/T 43/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
122 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
...ADDED COUNTIES TO THE FLOOD WATCH...
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IN
BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...AND WARD COUNTIES. REPORTS AND RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN PARTS OF THESE
COUNTIES SINCE SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT AN AREA FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
JAMESTOWN IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR GARRISON EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THERE TO NEAR HARVEY
AN JUST WEST OF JAMESTOWN...AND SATELLITE PICS INDICATED
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SUPPORTS WHAT THE LATEST
MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THUS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A FLOOD WATCH
UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON - MINOT AND BOTTINEAU TO JAMESTOWN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. RAISED CHANCES IN BURKE AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES WHERE
SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING...AND LOWERED CHANCES FARTHER
WEST OVER DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES WHERE THE SHOWERS HAD MOVED
EAST. MAIN EFFORTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN TO TRY AND VERIFY RADAR
ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL FROM THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. CURRENT
REPORTS WERE OF 2-5 INCHES IN DIVIDE COUNTY...WITH A 3.5 INCH REPORT
FROM BURG TOWNSHIP. STILL AWAITING WORD FROM PLACES IN NORTHERN
WILLIAMS COUNTY...AND WILL BE UPDATING THE AREAL (OVERLAND) FLOOD
WARNING IN PLACE IN WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
UNTIL 230 PM CDT. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST POPS LOWER OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL. CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WEST LAST NIGHT HAS
MADE IT EAST ALMOST OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. THERE
IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR FUTURE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THEN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS THE WEST.
PORTIONS OF WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ROOTED OVER THE NORTHWEST ALONG
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS THE SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH FORECAST PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT
FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SEEM LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY. WITHIN THE PAST 7 DAYS A LARGE SWATH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVED 6 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
SUNDAY COULD PROVE TO BE TOO MUCH FOR THE SATURATED GROUND TO
HANDLE AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND RAP AND PRODUCE
GREATER AMOUNTS OF QPF. FOR THIS FORECAST UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS THE 00 UTC NAM INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY AND DID
NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...EXPECT FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS IN RESPONSE TO ONE OF MULTIPLE
WAVES WORKING THROUGH A BROAD MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING A RISK OF SHOWERS AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE CENTRAL AND EAST REMAIN DRY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM REINFORCING UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE BEST
THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY DRY REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTH DAKOTA
IN BETWEEN MORE ACTIVE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MODELS DIVERGE
A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLIP OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...WHILE GFS IS DRIER. BUT IN GENERAL WE REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO BECOME SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BE MORE NUMEROUS
FROM KMOT TO KJMS...AND REMAIN OVER THESE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001-002-
009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-004-011-012-
021>023-036-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH A
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
323 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...
STALLING IN OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
PSEUDO WARM FRONT IN NE KY THIS AFTERNOON IN DEW POINT GRADIENT ON
WEST SIDE OF MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS. STILL LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HTS TRI STATE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT FCST RAP SOUNDINGS STILL A BIT TOO
DRY...NEED TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST.
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AT 925 MB ON 12Z NAM GOES NORTH INTO OHIO THEN
BRUSHES NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM ALSO DEPICTING AN 850
MB TROF AXIS PASSING THRU WITH WINDS VEERS FROM SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. YET...CAN NOT JUMP
ON THE 70 TO 80 POPS TONIGHT FOR PLACES LIKE HTS AND CRW.
CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL IN OUR CHANCE RANGE IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. SOME WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXS
DEPICTED ON NAM AND GFS RIDING NE THROUGH OHIO ON MONDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES ON MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP OUR FORECAST DEW POINTS AOA GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT AND WHEN EVAPORATING DEW ETC 12Z TO 14Z MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAY STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION TO START EARLY ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO TRIED TO
SHOW A PERIOD OF LOWER POPS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. BEST LINE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH VORT MAX/RIPPLE AT 500MB. THE FRONT
CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY JUST CLEAR TO THE CWA TO THE
SOUTH...BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.5 THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SO DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER FLOW SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS
MOVING...SO TRAINING WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN THERE. DECENT
SHEAR ALSO IN PLACE...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL...WITH WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE IN HWO AT THIS POINT.
BLENDED IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN FAIRLY MINIMAL CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE OSSCIALTING SURFACE
BOUNDARY STALLED IN THE VICINITY AND SEVERAL WAVES...BOTH SURFACE
AND ALOFT...CROSSING THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS ON WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE...SO STAYED
PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE BOUNDARY FINALLY HEADING TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...SO STRAYED FROM WPC THERE GOING WITH A LOWER POP
FORECAST. THEN HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SURFACE WAVE AND 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS. GFS SHOWING DECENT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...AND ALSO PWATS ABOVE 1.5 FOR THURSDAY...SO
WILL MENTION STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
TODAY. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM FORMING HTS ON
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
LAYERS CLOUDS AT MOSTLY 4 TO 8 THSD FT AGL OVERNIGHT...WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES. SOME MVFR IN FOG MAY FORM IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OF WV 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY INCLUDING ELKINS.
AGAIN ON MONDAY...MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS...BUT A BIG
LOWER IN HIGHER DEW POINT AIR...MOSTLY 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL.
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY IN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES INCLUDING SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...STALLING
IN OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
PSEUDO WARM FRONT IN NE KY THIS AFTERNOON IN DEW POINT GRADIENT ON
WEST SIDE OF MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS. STILL LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HTS TRI STATE VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT FCST RAP SOUNDINGS STILL A BIT TOO
DRY...NEED TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST.
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AT 925 MB ON 12Z NAM GOES NORTH INTO OHIO THEN
BRUSHES NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM ALSO DEPICTING AN 850
MB TROF AXIS PASSING THRU WITH WINDS VEERS FROM SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. YET...CAN NOT JUMP
ON THE 70 TO 80 POPS TONIGHT FOR PLACES LIKE HTS AND CRW.
CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL IN OUR CHANCE RANGE IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. SOME WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXS
DEPICTED ON NAM AND GFS RIDING NE THROUGH OHIO ON MONDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES ON MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP OUR FORECAST DEW POINTS AOA GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT AND WHEN EVAPORATING DEW ETC 12Z TO 14Z MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS ESTABLISH A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER UNSETTLED WEEK OVERALL...WITH
AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.
ON MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE BRINGS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. DESPITE THIS...BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT TOO
BULLISH ON INSTABILITY AND THERE IS ALSO AN OVERALL LACK OF A
TRIGGER MECHANISM TO GET CONVECTION GOING. KEPT IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
IN SOUTHEAST OHIO DUE TO PRESENCE OF WEAK VORT MAX...BUT BACKED OFF
A BIT ON POPS OVERALL GIVEN THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
EXPECTING A TYPICAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN ANY ACTIVITY MONDAY
EVENING. SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.
REGARDLESS...LIKELY POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE ALONG/WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER BY 12Z...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.
LIKELY POPS THEN SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AS HIGHER THETA-E
AIR ARRIVES ALONG WITH THE FRONT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED
GIVEN THE FRONT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...OR STRONG FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT. NO LARGE-SCALE WATER THREAT IS INDICATED EITHER...ALTHOUGH
LOCAL PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW. COVERAGE
WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA.
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. SPC
HIGHLIGHTED THE NORTHERN CWA FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. ECMWF DOES
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS LINE OF THINKING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY HWO SEVERE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS VALUES USED FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME
TWEAKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW AS WEAK 5H RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THUS..AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DOES NOT
STRAY FAR FROM OUR AREA AS IT TAKES ON AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG FRONT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WITH THE COMBINATION DECENT DIURNAL
HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES HANDLING THESE FEATURES...SO STAYED WITH HPC GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NOTED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
TODAY. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM FORMING HTS ON
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
LAYERS CLOUDS AT MOSTLY 4 TO 8 THSD FT AGL OVERNIGHT...WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORM IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES. SOME MVFR IN FOG MAY FORM IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OF WV 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY INCLUDING ELKINS.
AGAIN ON MONDAY...MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS...BUT A BIG
LOWER IN HIGHER DEW POINT AIR...MOSTLY 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL.
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY IN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES INCLUDING SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
333 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS ADVANCING
ACROSS KS AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE AND
THEN SLIDE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN OK. THE
LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAVE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT IDEAS AS TO
HOW THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE UKMET KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE BORDER.
BASED ON SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THE DATA...WILL ELECT TO
MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS INSTEAD OF LIKELY POPS. NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED
BY WEAKER INSTABILITY OWING TO THE TIME OF DAY.
MID LEVEL TEMPS AND HEIGHTS RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS
SPREADS UP INTO OUR AREA. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION...THE WEATHER
LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED WITH MCS ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 72 91 72 92 / 40 30 10 10
FSM 71 88 70 91 / 10 20 10 10
MLC 71 88 71 89 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 70 89 70 92 / 50 30 10 10
FYV 66 84 67 86 / 20 30 10 10
BYV 68 84 67 87 / 20 30 20 10
MKO 70 88 70 90 / 20 30 10 10
MIO 69 87 70 89 / 40 40 10 10
F10 71 89 71 90 / 20 20 10 10
HHW 71 87 70 88 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
237 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS...SUPERCELLS DUE TO STRONG
0-6 KM SHEAR 40 TO 55 KT...WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND PERHAPS INTO THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.
COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOW AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AS THE CAP MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PANHANDLES WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST...AROUND +14C.
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN KANSAS. THESE STORMS
COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 7 PM. VERY LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS...THOUGH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LOW DUE TO HIGH CLOUD BASES. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGESTED THIS
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR.
LATER THIS EVENING...MORE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS/HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HINT THAT A LARGE MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER KANSAS...POSSIBLY
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS STATE LINES. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS COMPLEX WILL GO AS
CAPPING IS STRONGER OVER OKLAHOMA COMPARED TO KANSAS. THIS COMPLEX
MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 8 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WOULD HELP TO KEEP THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZED...POSSIBLY
INTO A BOWING SQUALL LINE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY TRY TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. EXPANDED
RAIN CHANCES A BIT SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
ON MONDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER EAST OF A ALVA TO OKLAHOMA
CITY TO ADA LINE MAINLY IN THE MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND
CAP STRENGTHENS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG. OTHERWISE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE CENTURY MARK MAY BE REACHED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA
AND A WEAK BOUNDARY AND WEAKER CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF STORMS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 90 71 93 / 30 20 10 10
HOBART OK 69 93 71 95 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 95 73 96 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 67 92 68 98 / 20 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 67 87 71 92 / 70 30 20 10
DURANT OK 72 87 72 90 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. WILL MENTION VCTS
AT CKV/BNA AND VCSH AT CSV. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10-20 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MVFR
CIG/VIS POSSIBLE DUE TO CONVECTION. NO VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LLJ WILL BE BRISK AT 30-35 KTS.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM
YESTERDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S PLATEAU WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...BUT 12Z HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION
BLOSSOMING BY 17Z WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY
HAS ALL OF THIS COVERED AND LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR
EAST, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHICH IS
KEEPING A WARM, UNSTABLE AIR MASS LOCKED IN OVER THE MID STATE.
LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY, WHICH WILL ENHANCE
OUR CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD, WHICH SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE
LITTLE STORMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THESE WILL JUST BE PAVEMENT
WETTERS. OVERALL PATTERN AND FORECAST WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RICH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S EACH AFTERNOON...WITH NO WIND SHEAR TO SPEAK
OF MEANS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG AT TIMES DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES.
TRYING TO FIND A PERIOD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHERE THINGS
MIGHT CHANGE A BIT IN THE PRECIPITATION REALM AND IT LOOKS LIKE
WEDNESDAY MIGHT BE THAT DAY. STARTING MONDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BY TUESDAY...MOVE NE INTO CANADA.
THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY`S PRECIP HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAY HELP TO PUSH RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF THE MID-STATE GIVING US A RESPITE IN THE RAIN
CATEGORY. THE DOWNSIDE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY PUSH INTO THE
REGION IN ITS PLACE AND HELP TO WARM US UP BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THESE TWO DAYS MAY BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES SHOWING LOW 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ONTO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
FORECAST...WITH A ONLY A FEW READINGS INTO THOSE LOW 90S WEST OF THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA.
OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TURNS ZONAL AND A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS
MOVE WEST TO EAST...NORTH OF THE STATE. THE RESULT COULD BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON.
STILL NOT CRAZY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR...BUT WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MORE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED
WIND THREAT EACH DAY.
LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVENTUAL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THE EURO WANTS A SHORTWAVE TO PUSH RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF
TN SATURDAY...WITH MORE RAIN MOVING IN SUNDAY...AND THE GFS WANTS TO
KEEP RAIN AROUND BOTH DAYS. WILL JUST TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR
NOW...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UNGER
,AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING SITUATED JUST EAST WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...WHILE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF. DEEPER MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
OVER THE MID-STATE LATER ON SUNDAY AND WHILE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ANYTIME...SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOOKS MOST
LIKELY FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...OVERNIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP CKV BUT IS VERY LIKELY CSV WHERE IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
TOWARD DAWN.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
320 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TO
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS BANKED CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGING WILL
KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHORT LIVED...IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL. THE
NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE WITH CONVECTION FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF RUNS. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW ALSO GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. WILL KEPT SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FOR THIS EVENING WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO BUILD SOUTH FROM
LOWER NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE SEABOARD TO BECOME CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
HELD ON TO RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SHAPED GRIDS TOWARDS THE
NAM. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO ADJMETBC WITH READINGS
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT. ADD THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ON
MONDAY...ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...
GOING TO SEE 5H HEIGHTS FLATTEN THIS PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FROM SRN ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES SWD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
WILL BE WATCHING CONVECTION AND UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST OF
WHICH CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
TUESDAY WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS. ATTM...APPEARS THE BLUE RIDGE
WEST WILL SEE HIGHER THREAT. PARAMETERS SUGGEST THUNDER BUT SVR
POTENTIAL IS LOW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SVR THREAT.
CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION COULD LIMIT
HEATING. STILL HUMID AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS FROM THE AROUND 80
WEST TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.
MODELS FADE PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS. ANOTHER
ARRIVES TOWARD WED MORNING IN THE FAR WEST...WITH MAIN EMPHASIS OF
COVERAGE MOVING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND CONVECTION IS PROGGED BY THE 12Z ECMWF TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON....BUT KEEPS BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHANYS AND BLUE RIDGE. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40 RANGE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE EAST. SHOULD BE WARMER IF NO DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SPILLS
OVER...MAINLY IN THE EAST. GOING WITH LOWER 80S WEST TO AROUND 90
SOUTHEAST.
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING MCS SHIFTING TOWARD THE WV/VA/NC MTNS BY 12Z
THURSDAY AND KEEPING POPS ON THE 30-50 RANGE LATE WED NIGHT THERE
WITH LESS THAN 15 MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT FASTER ONSET. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS
LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY..
ELONGATED W-E FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THU-FRI...FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF US BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS HIGH
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SPEEDING TIMING OF FROPA
TO FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOW IT DOWN SOME GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL VICINITY OF FRONT AND UPPER FLOW FROM THE WEST
FAVORS WARM CONDITIONS. THE FRONT BUCKLES BACK TOWARD US BY THE END
OF DAY 7/SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE MID
WEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TURNING THE FLOW WSW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ISOLATED POCKET OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH MON...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOW CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES
TO CLIMB TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
VSBYS THROUGH 06Z WILL ALL BE VFR...BUT MVFR BR POSSIBLE LWB/BCB
EARLY MON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. SOME MVFR
FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT LWB. ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BUT TOO
LIMITED IN COVERAGE FOR MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE.
WINDS MOSTLY ESE-SE AT SPEEDS OF 5-9KTS...WITH ISOLATED GUST TO 20
KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT SPEED OF 5 TO 10 KTS IN GENERAL.
HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSRA RETURNING TO AREAS WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPINGE
ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE TUE AND AGAIN
THU. PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS IN MORNING BR AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBLF OBSERVATION WILL NOT BE TRANSMITTED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
DUE TO AN ONGOING FAA COMMUNICATIONS ISSUE. HOWEVER...WE ARE
ABLE TO DIAL INTO THE SITE TO OBTAIN INFORMATION NEEDED TO
CONTINUE THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS LOCATION. HOWEVER...UNTIL
THE COMMUNICATION ISSUE IS RESOLVED...AN AMD NOT SKED WILL BE
APPENDED TO THE END OF EACH KBLF TERMINAL FORECAST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...CF/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...WP
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREAS AND ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ML CAPES
OVER 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER CELLULAR
IN NATURE BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SLOW CONGEALING TREND FROM
NORTHERN IOWA TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN POSSIBLY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THOUGH HAVE A HAD A FEW WIND REPORTS TO 45 MPH...THE
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE FLASH FLOODING IN THE CENTRAL TO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN CORRIDOR. THE DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS IS
NOT QUITE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW...SO CONCERNS THAT THE OUTFLOW
WILL CAUSE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME. WILL PASS
ALONG THE CONCERNS TO THE EVENING SHIFT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TONIGHT...RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE FEATURES TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TRAILING
END OF ONE VORT MAX WILL BE DEPARTING FAR NE WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING WHILE ANOTHER TAIL OF A VORT WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ROBBING THE MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD...AND
FOCUSING THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS HERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BUT ONCE
THESE FEATURES EXIT...THINK WILL SEE A GENERAL DIMINISHING PRECIP
TREND AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT IS LOST. AFTER
PLENTY OF RAINFALL IN SPOTS TODAY AND A HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE...SUPPORT IS THERE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG LATER TONIGHT. WILL FOCUS THE STRONGER FOG WORDING OVER CENTRAL
AND N-C WISCONSIN WHERE MOS GUIDANCE HITS THE LOWER VSBYS HARDER.
THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
OCCURS...FORCING ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELEVATED CAPES REACHING 600 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS AROUND
20 KTS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LLJ LATE TONIGHT AND A SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE HIGHER IF THIS DEVELOPS. BUT CURRENTLY THINKING FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN THAN A SEVERE THREAT. MUGGY NIGHT
TIME LOWS IN THE 60S.
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NE TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS IT DRAGS A COOL FRONT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
SINCE WINDS ARE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. FORCING ALOFT IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION LOOKS MORE ROBUST AND THINK WILL DRIVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH FORCING ALOFT INCREASING DURING THE
MORNING...THINK WILL SEE AN AREA OF STORMS MOVE FROM SW TO NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ML
CAPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 700-1000 J/KG RANGE WHILE
BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS OVER NE WISCONSIN. IF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP DO NOT HOLD TEMPS BACK...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER NE WISCONSIN. RATHER SKINNY CAPE
SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND TO GO ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WILL BE BRIEF...AS NEAR-SEVERE TSTMS HAVE KEPT US BUSY THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL STILL HAVE LINGERING
POPS MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ON TUESDAY FOR SOME LIGHT WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO
MAINTAINED SOME SMALL POPS OVER C/EC WI ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HUDSON BAY
IS EXPECTED SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STORMS.
PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT
THE MOMENT...AND WITH PRECIPITATION MOST WIDESPREAD IN THIS
AREA...TOUGH TO TIME IF AND WHEN A RETURN TO VFR WILL OCCUR.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...THE BEST GUESS
FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE
MONDAY MORNING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BETWEEN UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
INCLUDE ONE NEAR DULUTH...ANOTHER STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA AND A THIRD OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE TAIL
END OF THE DULUTH SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH LACK OF CAPPING
AND MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG HAS SUPPORTED NUMEROUS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN WI INTO SOUTHEAST MN. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S HAS HELPED SUPPORT THE
MUCAPE VALUES. HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN A BIG CONCERN WITH THE STORMS
AS THE OVERALL 0-6KM SHEAR IS 20 KT OR LESS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
HAS BEEN RUNNING 1.6-1.8 INCHES. HOWEVER...HAVE ALSO HAD TO
CONTEND WITH SOME WIND WITH 0-3KM SHEAR RUNNING 20-30
KT...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO HELP PRODUCE WET .
MEANWHILE...TO OUR SOUTHWEST...NUMEROUS CONVECTION WAS PRESENT
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THERE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MN BACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WAS ALSO PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FORCE
THE CONVECTION.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL HANDLING CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY WITH
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND
A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THUS...MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS
BASED ON ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND OTHER
CONVECTIVE SIGNALS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.
CONVECTION CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS A BIG TIE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...ANTICIPATING A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER
SUNSET. ADDITIONALLY...THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE CONVECTION
OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTED BY THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS SUGGEST THESE TWO
SHORTWAVES MAY MERGE...LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING. GOOD DPVA SIGNAL...ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER INCREASE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES.
THUS...BELIEVE SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EITHER AS SOON AS
LATE THIS EVENING...OR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION MAY BE DONE WITH AFTER 12Z...OR PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS ARE
STILL MAINTAINED IN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LOW WITH 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR MOSTLY UNDER 20
KT THROUGH 06Z. THE SHEAR DOES TICK UP TOWARDS 12Z...TO 20-
30KT...BUT THERE IS BIG UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE
AROUND. THUS...FEEL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. REGARDING
THAT RAIN THREAT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN RECENT
RAIN...THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE
INFORMATION IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY SLOT SHOULD BE PUNCHING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES IN OVER NORTHERN MN. MEANWHILE...THE CURRENT COLD FRONT
OFF IN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO PASS COMPARED TO
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY 19Z...THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR LA CROSSE.
THE QUESTION IS IF ENOUGH RECOVERY AND CONVERGENCE CAN OCCUR ON THE
FRONT TO COUNTERACT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. HAVE CARRIED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE EVENT IT CAN
OCCUR. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS STILL ONLY 20-30KT...SO AT MOST
MAYBE SOME SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ASSUMING CONVECTION
FIRES. ANY CONVECTION WILL PUSH OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH THE
AREA LIKELY DRY AFTER 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON AN UPPER LOW COMING INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
FIRST...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN MN UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT...TRACKING
ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-94 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWER
ACTIVITY VS THUNDERSTORM GIVEN TIME OF NIGHT AND COOLER AIRMASS.
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SAY 15Z
TUESDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
HEADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
SHEARED OUT WAVE. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN MCS AHEAD OF
THE WAVE IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS MCS...LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF A BOW ECHO...SHOULD PROPAGATE AT LEAST TO THE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWING THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...CORFIDI VECTORS AND THOSE THAT FORWARD
PROPAGATE SUGGEST EVEN A BIT MOVEMENT SOUTH OF DUE EAST. THUS...
BELIEVE THE 01.12Z NAM AND 01.09Z SREF MEAN ARE INCORRECT BRINGING
THE MCS NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
01.12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF LOOK MUCH MORE REALISTIC...
KEEPING IT TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...HAVE SHIFTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES A BIT MORE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE
CHANCES COULD BE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN LATER FORECASTS.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THEN SHOULD TAKE HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE FROM CANADA. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT
SHOULD ALSO HELP FOR THE DRY FORECAST BY PUTTING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR AN UPPER
TROUGH TO DIG DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. DPVA FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH PLUS SOME MOISTURE
STREAMING AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...CHANCES EXIST IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM
MORNING CONVECTION LEADING TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
HEADED FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THUNDER WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KRST/KLSE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS
SUCH...OPTED TO CARRY GENERAL THUNDER AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL TIED TO INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT HEADED IN DURING
THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE INTO IFR. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KRST. ALSO...LOOK FOR A DIMINISHING TREND
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERS ACTIVITY AFTER 12Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY AFFECTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 18...BROUGHT ANYWHERE FROM 1/4 TO AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES PER RADAR ESTIMATES. IN FACT...THE AUSTIN AWOS
REPORTED 1.74 INCHES IN 1 HOUR...BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM...WITH
HEAVIER CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH THERE. STREET FLOODING WAS
OBSERVED IN AUSTIN DUE TO THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATE. GIVEN
THAT THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY NOT DIMINISH UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONCERNED ANOTHER 1 INCH
IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THEN THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENTERING WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MN WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING PERHAPS
ANOTHER 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION. THUS...VERY CONCERNED WE COULD
END UP WITH SOME FLOODING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 18 SEEM MOST FAVORABLE GIVEN RAIN LOCATION TODAY...SO
LEFT OUT FAYETTE...CLAYTON AND GRANT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RIVERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK AS ALL OF THE RAIN RUNS THROUGH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...UPSTREAM HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY BRING
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WABASHA BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT LOCATION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
WIZ032.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MNZ079.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1244 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WITH ANOTHER AREA NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING RAIN CHANCES WITH NONE OF THE SHORT TERM MESO MODELS
HAVING MUCH OF A HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE
PRODUCTION PROBLEMS WITH THE 31.20Z THE LAST FULL RUN AVAILABLE IN
AWIPS AND ON THE WEB. THE 01.00Z HI-RES ARW SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE CONVECTION OUT WEST OKAY BUT HAS NO CLUE ON THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST...EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z BUT PLAN
TO HOLD ON TO AT LEAST SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE EVENT THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS UNTIL THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOWS ITS DIURNAL DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST IS CLOSE TO THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. IT IS ALSO BEING
AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE AFTERNOON IS GOING TO PLAY OUT. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THIS COULD TEMPORARILY LEAVE THE AREA WITHOUT MUCH
DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE COMPENSATED BY THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
WITH AFTERNOON ML CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 1 TO 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
IN THIS AXIS OF CAPE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL HAVE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE
01.00Z NAM SHOWING IT PRODUCING SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER. ALL THE 01.00Z MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL
FROM ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON
ITS LOCATION. THE NAM AND 01.00Z ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER WESTERN
OR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHILE THE 01.00Z GFS HAS THE LOW NEAR
THE TWIN CITIES. GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL STILL BE
OVER THE AREA...FEEL THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE
FRONT INTO THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE NAM AND ECMWF
PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WOULD PUT
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.
THIS SHOULD THEN PLACE THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN
CHANCES FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST UP TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
WEST.
FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST AS WELL. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF ALL SHOWING DIFFERENT POSITIONS. THESE MODELS DO SHOW
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
IOWA DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH OUT THE DAY WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND WILL START IN THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GENERAL FORCING WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE
AREA WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE CONTINUING. STILL COULD BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
SEVERE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. ML
CAPES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE WITH THE SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER REMAINING IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3 TO 4 KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5 TO
1.8 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT WITH GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...GFS AND 01.00Z GEM SHOWING THIS LOW BETWEEN OMAHA AND
KANSAS CITY. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD
OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN TO FORM
NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE ACTIVITY GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014
WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM
MORNING CONVECTION LEADING TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
HEADED FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THUNDER WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KRST/KLSE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS
SUCH...OPTED TO CARRY GENERAL THUNDER AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL TIED TO INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT HEADED IN DURING
THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE INTO IFR. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KRST. ALSO...LOOK FOR A DIMINISHING TREND
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERS ACTIVITY AFTER 12Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
WIZ032.
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
MNZ079.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
326 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH ITS
AXIS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH WINDS GOING NORTH TO NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS MOVING OVER MUCH OF CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WEAK INSTABILITY IS SHOWN UP IN THIS REGION...LARGELY
CAUSED BY COOL MIDLVL TEMPS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE
SVR STORMS THROUGH THE AFTN OVER THE CWA...HOWEVER THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS
IS WHERE THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
CO-LOCATED WITH 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION AND
DECREASING INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTN ARE NEGATIVES FOR STRONGER
STORMS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
STORMS DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS WILL
WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING...NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT
WHERE STORMS LINGERED LATE INTO THE NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MIDLVL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH SFC WINDS TURNING TO THE SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF AT ALL...WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH
THE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS COME UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY
TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTN. THE TIMING
OF THE WAVE IS SUCH THAT THE DRYLINE IS LOCATED OVER THE PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND DEWPOINTS
ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE VERY HIGH (60-65F) TO THE EAST.
INSTABILITY IS EXCELLENT (LI VALUES OF -9C) AS IS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SVR STORMS OVER OUR
EASTERN ZONES. OF COURSE IF THE WAVE IS SLOWER AND THE SFC TROUGH
IS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BACK UP ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE THEN THE SVR THREAT WOULD EXTEND TO ALMOST THE ENTIRE
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
GFS SHOWS MAIN SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE
TUESDAY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
MID/UPPER DRYSLOT WORKING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THIS
FAR NORTH WITH THE UPPER DRYSLOT AND HENCE WOULD SUGGEST SOMEWHAT
GREATER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA
AND OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT OVERALL MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND FAIRLY ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SEMI-
ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES
WHEN EACH PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE OUR AREA...SO WE
KEPT AT LEAST SOME POPS GOING MOST AREAS WITH CHANCE POPS
CONCENTRATED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY AS GFS (AND TO SOME DEGREE
THE ECMWF) DEPICTS A LARGESCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING TO OUR EAST WITH
RIDGING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH ON
AMPLIFYING THE EASTERN TROUGH...SO WE MAY END UP RAISING POPS FOR
SUNDAY ON SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETTING A SHOVE SOUTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER
AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A PASSING LOW OVER SOUTHERN
MONTANA EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MEDICINE BOW WY TO KIMBALL NE TODAY...MEANING BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WOULD BE IN THE
CHADRON...SCOTTSBLUFF...ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY AREAS FOR AVIATION
FORECAST PURPOSES. ALSO...GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND RAWLINS AND LARAMIE...AND INCLUDED
VCNTY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT THOSE AIRPORTS.
HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE 01Z-03Z
TIMEFRAME OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
MONTANA LIFTS A BIT FARTHER OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WITH
THE LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT AND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER 02Z
TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 15 PERCENT BY
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT FORECASTED
SINCE FUELS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE GROWTH.
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 3 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH
PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED AND STAGES SHOULD BEGIN TO RECEDE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL...PRODUCING SOME SNOWMELT EACH DAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH