Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/31/14
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THEN
THE AFTERNOONS WILL HAVE FAIR SKIES FOR INLAND AREAS AND SOME
CLEARING AT THE COAST. THERE WILL BE BREEZY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FROM A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA...AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER PLAINS STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
A WIND ADVISORY WAS ADDED FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AS NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTENING LATER TONIGHT. GRADIENTS ACROSS
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON ARE TIGHTENING...WITH KSBA-
KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT -2.2 MB THIS AFTERNOON. IF
SURFACE TRENDS CONTINUE...A KSBA-KSMX SURFACE GRADIENT AROUND 4
MB CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN
GAVIOTA AND GOLETA...AND 3-KM HRRR SOLUTIONS INDICATE 20 TO 30
KNOTS AT THE SURFACE BETWEEN GOLETA AND GAVIOTA.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE AREA.
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN AND INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST COOLING OCCURRING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
NO RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE TROUGH...BUT
THERE IS A TIME PERIOD ON MONDAY WHERE THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE SOME
CLOUDINESS AS A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. IF THE MODELS
CHANGE COURSE SOMEWHAT AND PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE...THERE COULD BE
A THREAT OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK KEEPING A
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
SOME DEEPENING OFF THE MARINE AND A COOLING TREND COULD DEVELOP
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...30/2350Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THRU SAT AT KPRB...KSBA...
KBUR...KVNY...KPMD AND KWJF. FOR KSBP...KSMX...KOXR...KLAX AND
KLGB...THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL THAT LOW CLOUDS AND
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE SAT MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY SW WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF WILL LINGER THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY SAT AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY NW WINDS AT KSBP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 10Z
THEN PERSIST THRU ABOUT 17Z SAT. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE
LOW CLOUDS COULD BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU SAT EVENING.
KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU SAT
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS 14Z-18Z.
&&
.MARINE...30/300 PM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS AT SCA LEVEL OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...ALTHO MODERATE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE INNER WATERS INCLUDING POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
OUT TO 10 NM...WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED N OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SAT...OTHERWISE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR PZZ645/650/655.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
402 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA
BUT MORNING MEDFORD SOUNDING SHOWED A COUPLE OF INVERSIONS CAPPING
THE UPWARD MOTION. THIS IS THE REASON THAT ONLY CU HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTH FORK MTN RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWED A
SIMULATED SHOWER OVER THE YOLLA BOLLY AREA BRIEFLY ABOUT 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL BE THE ONLY IMPACT WITH THE TROUGH. THE
TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT TONIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
SATURDAY. ONLY A FEW CU EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY,
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASING THE
INSTABILITY AND SPC HAS US IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THIS
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH AND DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO EJECT THIS
LOW AS IT COMBINES WITH ANOTHER LOW COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME KIND OF LOW OVER AREA MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY THOUGH EXACT DETAILS VARY. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
UNSTABLE SO CONTIUED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MODELS EJECT LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND LEFT OUT
MENTION OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THEY HAVE ANOTHER
TROUGH BY NEXT FRIDAY.
CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE MARINE LAYER IS BECOMING ENTRENCHED AS
THESE TROUGHS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE MARINE INVERSION.
CONTINUED NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND UP THE EEL
RIVER AND KLAMATH RIVER VALLEYS WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS
WITH SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. DEAN
&&
.AVIATION...CIGS CONTINUED TO EXTEND ALONG MUCH OF THE REDWOOD COAST
TIL AROUND NOON. A COUPLE OF EARLIER MORNING PIREPS HAD CIGS AROUND
010-012 WITH TOPS AROUND 017-020. ASOS`S RECORDED CIGS AS LOW AS
080-010 AND THEN AROUND 011-013 ABOUT NOONTIME. LOW CLOUDS AT CEC
STAYED IN LONGER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO A NICE SOUTHERLY WIND. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON LOW CLOUDS HAD MOSTLY ERODED EXCEPT A NARROW SWATHE
AT THE COAST. PERSISTENCE AND GUIDANCE RETURNS MVFR-IFR CIGS TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A LITTLE BIT OF A
GRADIENT AT THE COAST WILL INCREASE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE
INTERIOR: SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MORE-SO AFFECT MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS.
THIS MIGHT JUST BE THE CATALYST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
TWO WITH A WEAK THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE YOLLA BOLLAS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR. TA
&&
.MARINE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A HAZARDOUS
SEAS WARNING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALONG
THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH
INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER AND MAINTAIN A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS SURFACE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS
BEYOND 10 NAUTICAL MILES.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS WITHIN THE INSTABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THESE FLUCTUATIONS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. NEVER THE LESS, CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS HIGH THAT
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST AND THE SEA STATE WILL REMAIN STEEP
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FURTHER EXTENSIONS OF THE CURRENT
PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, OR POSSIBLY UPGRADED. EITHER WAY,
CONTINUED MONITORING OF THE MARINE STATE WILL BE NECESSARY IN
DETERMINING WHETHER PRODUCT ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED.KML
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ450-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON PZZ470.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
918 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
LATEST HRRR AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 00Z NAM HINTING AT ANOTHER
WIGGLE IN THE FLOW SPARKING A FEW MORE NOCTURNAL STORMS BETWEEN 10
PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT. FROM THE CANYONLANDS NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE MODIFIED OVERNIGHT POP FIELDS TO FIT
THIS POSSIBILITY. CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WAS WELL
HANDLED BY EARLIER RUNS...SO LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE. UPDATES OUT
SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
A PASSING DISTURBANCE WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE PARK RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. IN ITS WAKE TEMPERATURES
HAVE REBOUNDED WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP FOR LATE MAY...AROUND
0.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. STORMS HAVE FORMED FIRST OVER
THE AREA MTNS AND ARE MOVING E-NE AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THE 12Z AND 18Z MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SOME MINOR INSTABILITY EXITS. AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH...AN 80KT JET NOSES IN FROM THE SW.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT SEEN IN THE UPPER DIVERGENT AND DEFORMATION
FIELDS OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE IS NO SURFACE
REFLECTION. PRECIP WATER REMAINS IN THE 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE.
SO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FAVORING THE MTNS
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SOME NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
LOW PRESSURE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE MT/CANADIAN BORDER ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE EFFECTIVELY CLOSED THE TAP OF SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHWEST
THEN WESTERLY FLOW. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY TUE
AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH STRETCHES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND ANOTHER
WAVE REINFORCES THE WESTERN TROUGH. THEREFORE A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF NOW AGREE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH ON TUE AND MAY
RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS. THIS MAY BE OF CONCERN TO LAND USE
AGENCIES AS HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW SINCE THIS
WAVE CARRIES NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. BEYOND MIDWEEK MODEL
AGREEMENT DIMINISHES WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES BRUSHING THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME THESE WAVES GENERALLY LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. MOUNTAINS MAY BE BRIEFLY OBSCURED
AS THE ACTIVITY ROLLS THROUGH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY...WITH A NEW ROUNDS OF STORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
FLOWS IN MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN HIGH OR INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SNOW PACK CONTINUES TO MELT DUE TO
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOW
INCREASES. THE HIGHEST FLOWS ARE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS
FROM THE GUNNISON BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE
WYOMING BORDER...AND ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. HOWEVER ALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH WILL BE RUNNING
FAST...STRONG AND DEEP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS...AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING
DOWN...OR RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JDC
HYDROLOGY...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1049 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2014
...CORRECTED HYDRO SECTION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2014
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ARE WARMER THAN FORECAST AS
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING EARLY TODAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED THOSE TEMPERATURES. WEAK ECHOES OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAVE
BEEN APPEARING ON RADAR AS MORE SUN DUE TO LESS HIGH CLOUD COVER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT HAS OCCURRED. HAVE MOVED UP CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR A COUPLE
HOURS.
NEW NAM AND HIGH RES RUC AND HRRR ARE SHOWING A PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION INCREASING WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH PARK AREA....THEN ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING UP AROUND MIDNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY
ABOUT 0.2 UP FROM YESTERDAY AND THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVING STORM
MOTIONS TO THE NORTHEAST...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2014
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS IS STILL OVER EASTERN COLORADO. NAM IS THE OUTLIER IN
BRINGING THIS EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY...PREFER THE GFS AND OTHER
MODELS WHICH HOLD THE HIGHER LEVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY BUT
THEN SPREAD CONVECTION EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE PLAINS TO
BE CAPPED...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. END RESULT IS JUST TO
SLOW EVERYTHING DOWN A FEW HOURS. CAPES ARE STILL PRETTY
LOW...300-600 J/KG SO I THINK FOR THE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL MAINLY
BE WEAK...SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT ALL LEVELS...EXPECT CELLS TO MOVE ALONG
WELL ENOUGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOWING AS STORMS GET ONTO
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS
CAUSING SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT...BUT I DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR TRAINING OR STATIONARY STORMS. IN ADDITION THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS NOT THAT GREAT ANYWAY. HIGHS ON THE PLAINS
MAY NEED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IF THE CLOUDS ARE DELAYED...BUT
LEFT THEM ALONE SINCE THERE SEEMS A DECENT CHANCE OF GETTING SOME
CLOUDS SPREADING OFF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2014
ON FRIDAY...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0.80 INCHES IN DENVER...WITH
CAPES AROUND 400 J/KG EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. TOWARDS AKRON...THE PW
VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.1 INCHES WITH SFC BASED CAPES CLOSE TO
1500 J/KG. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLIP INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS IN THE AFTN. THE FRONT MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORMS...BUT IF IT STABILIZES TOO FAST
BEHIND THE FRONT THE STORMS MAY NOT LAST VERY LONG OVER THE PLAINS
IN SPITE OF THE MUCH HIGHER CAPE. THERE IS SOME CIN OF AROUND -80
J/KG SO CAP COULD PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE WHERE THE FRONT SETTLES ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FM THE EAST WILL
ELEVATE THE CAPE AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE ENOUGH SHALLOW UPSLOPE TO
FOCUS THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS SCENARIO COULD ELEVATE THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG ALREADY SWOLLEN CREEKS AND STREAMS
EXACERBATED BY THE RUNOFF. THE STORM MOTION IS PROGGED TO BE QUITE
WEAK...SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS.
FOR SATURDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND
HOWEVER. BETTER SHEAR WITH SOME SORT OF DRYLINE LIKELY DEVELOPING
AS WELL. LOWER PW VALUES AND BETTER STORM MOTIONS WILL LESSEN THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT BUT INCREASE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
LARGE HAIL AND TSTM WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
NAM12 SOUNDINGS YIELD CAPES AROUND 900 J/KG OVER THE URBAN
CORRIDOR WITH CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE GRIDS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE DRIER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA. SLGT CHC POPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY...WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF STORMS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2014
DENVER CYCLONE HAS BEEN SPINNING AROUND KDEN THIS MORNING KEEP THE
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST THE THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY...ESPECIALLY AT KDEN. ASSUMING ONCE TEMPERATURES
WARM MORE THE SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IN A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST TO AFFECT AT LEAST KDEN AND KAPA. LOOKING FOR
CONVECTION TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AIRPORTS AFTER 20Z.
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. STORM
BASES WILL GENERALLY BE HIGH BUT INSTRUMENT APPROACHES MAY BE
NEEDED AT KDEN FOR A SHORT TIME IF THE STORMS ARE MORE ORGANIZED
THAN EXPECTED. THESE STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SLOW MOVING AND WILL
HAVE THE CHANCE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2014
REISSUED THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER AT GREELEY
DUE TO THE RIVER REMAINING HIGH FROM SNOWMELT...AND THE EXPECTED
RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. NO CHANGES TO THE OTHER ADVISORIES
IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. GENERALLY RISEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH THE WARMING.
IN GENERAL THE FLOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE THAN MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING UNLESS THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...UNLIKELY
TODAY BUT POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GREATEST RISK IS THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER WHERE THE SNOWMELT IS
GREATEST...AND IN BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES WHERE THE STREAMS
WILL BE FULL AND THERE WILL BE A HIGHER THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
RAIN AS DESCRIBED BELOW.
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED
TO PUSH ITSELF INTO THE FRONT RANGE...WHICH COULD HELP TO ANCHOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FRONT. THIS
COUPLED THE STORM MOTIONS OF 5 KTS AND ONGOING RUNOFF COULD
INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
DECREASE IN THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
INTRUDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COUPLED WITH GREATER WEST TO
EAST STORM MOTION MAY ALSO HELP TO SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR THE STORMS
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE. SOME OF THE STORMS HOWEVER COULD
BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL STILL EXIST OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE THREAT OF
STORMS WILL BE EVEN LOWER WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. RUNOFF AT THAT TIME WILL BE PRIMARILY A
PRODUCT OF THE SNOWMELT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...COOPER/GIMMESTAD/KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1109 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
CURRENTLY...
SHOWERS NOTED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW
MTNS AND WETS AND S SANGRES. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK SO SHOWERS MOVING
VERY SLOWLY. OTHERWISE IT WAS QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO 90
ACROSS THE PLAINS...70 TO L80S VALLEYS...AND 50S AND 60S MTNS.
REST OF TODAY AND TONITE...
MAIN CHANGE I MADE TO THE FCST WAS TO INCLUDE SOME LOW END POPS TO N
EL PASO COUNTY AND TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HRRR INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OUT A LITTLE FARTHER ONTO THE PLAINS.
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE OF S CALIF COAST IS BRINGING IN SOME HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SW...AND THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OVER THE
REGION STARTING LATER THIS EVENING.
TOMORROW(THURSDAY)...
SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
TOMORROW...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING A BIT FARTHER ONTO
THE PLAINS AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO MORE SW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. FAR EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
ABOUT SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGHS. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE LONGER TERM APPEAR TO BE
TEMPERATURES AND POPS...WITH ATTENDANT HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE THREAT
AT TIMES DURING PERIODS OF DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS.
INITIALLY...RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN SHOULD BE NOTED AT TIMES OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
THURSDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION
INTERACTS WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE VALUES. WFO PUEBLO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN(ESPECIALLY OVER/NEAR AREA BURN SCARS) DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY TO
DRIER CONDITIONS AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO/ACROSS MONTANA
ALLOWS A DRIER AIRMASS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA.
FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD CONTINUE TO NOTICE BASICALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY AS TRANSITORY UPPER ZONAL TO UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT.
A RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL REGIME SHOULD THEN
DEVELOP FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...NORTHERLY SURGE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
UPPER DISTURBANCES IMPACT SOUTHERN COLORADO.
LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT MAY BE INCREASING BY NEXT WEDNESDAY(ESPECIALLY EASTERN
SECTIONS) AS MEAN LAYER SHEAR...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITIES ALL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
FINALLY...ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH THE WEEKEND EXPECTED
TO EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST CONDITIONS...WHILE BY MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY
UNDER 15 KTS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. THE LATEST MODELS DEVELOP
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE IT INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IMPACTING KALS AND
KCOS. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
703 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COOL
WEATHER AND THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BY
MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS FEATURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANAMOLOUS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 125 KT
FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE...WITH LFQ OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. LOTS OF CURVATURE WITHIN THIS JET ENHANCING DIVERGENCE/QG
FORCING. ALSO STORMS IN WORCESTER COUNTY INTENSIFIED COURTSEY OF
INTERACTION WITH LEFTOVER SEABREEZE BOUNDARY FROM RI AND EASTERN
MA. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPS
ALOFT YIELDING LOW FREEZING LEVELS /ABOUT 7 KFT/ AND ALSO GUSTY
WINDS IN RESPONSE TO LARGE TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS /INVERTED /
SIGNATURE/. ALSO SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.
PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
CONVECTION AND BRINGS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN A WEAKEN STATE ALL THE
WAY TO THE SOUTH COAST LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURED THESE
DETAILS NICELY. THUS ONLY CHANGE WAS TO MODIFY HOURLY POPS AND SKY
TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.
------------------------------------------------------------------
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /A FEW OF WHICH THAT ARE NOTABLY STRONG
WITHIN THE LATEST RADAR SCANS/ BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO S
NEW ENGLAND AS THE PARENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT SWEEP
INTO THE REGION.
ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD A COMBINATION OF MODEST STRAIGHT-LINE
BULK SHEAR AND MEAGER INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 250-500 J/KG PER
SPC MESOANALYSIS /SKINNY CAPES PER RAP-MODEL SOUNDINGS/. AS SUCH
AND TO NO SURPRISE...OBSERVING SMALL-CORES WITH STORMS WHICH DO
SUSTAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE THREAT
OF SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS AND COLD-
POOL ALOFT...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH DRY LOW-LEVELS AND
INVERTED-V BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILES.
THUS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH THE FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING...TO WHICH SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY CONTAIN THE THREATS OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A LINE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. FIGURE THIS BE THE
CASE AS THE COLD FRONT CLASHES WITH THE SEA-BREEZE GENERATING A
REGION OF LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE. NEED TO ALSO MONITOR FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF THREATS ALONG THE N- AND W-FACING SLOPES OF HIGH
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A THREAT THOUGH A LOW ONE TO SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
BOUNDARY-LAYER WHICH AS DESTABILIZED ALLOWING FOR STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVOKING BRISK E-FLOW TO THE REAR OF AN
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FROM THE E /DISCERNED VIA LATEST OBS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE/.
CONTINUE TO TREND WITH HRRR- AND WRF-MODEL SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH
THE LATEST RAP.
TONIGHT...
RAINS LINGER ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS OFFSHORE. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH CONCLUSION OF BUOYANCY WITH
PEAK-HEATING. N-WINDS PREVAILING BEHIND WHICH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
BUILDS SOUTHWARD. YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES FROM THE NE AND INVOKES LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
ASCENT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. RENEWANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS E NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING W
TOWARDS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BENEATH WHICH BRISK N-WINDS PREVAIL. WILL
BE A COOL AND DAMP NIGHT. EXPECTING LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 40S. MAY
HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLIER RAINS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES W INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. SINKING DRIER AIR BUILDS REARWARD ACTING TO
SUPPRESS ACTIVING E TO W.
DO NOT BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD WILL BE ALLOWED TO DESTABILIZE.
FEEL THE WAVE WILL BE W OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH THE LATER-HALF
OF THE DAY DRY /EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE E-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH OROGRAPHIC CONVERGENCE/. THUS NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
ONSHORE FLOW BENEATH H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND +4C...GOING TO BE A
CHILLY DAY. WITH THE LATE-MAY SUN BREAKING OUT DURING THE LATER-HALF
OF THE DAY...WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE E-COAST. RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY
TO PREVAIL ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN
BY SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS FORECASTING WOULD
SUGGEST. LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOW-40S. MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND WARMING TREND SUN AND MON
* SHOWERS AT TIMES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
* TEMPS NEXT WEEK AT OR WARMER THAN NORMAL
OVERVIEW... BOTH 00Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLES IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THRU NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE.
RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO AND QUEBEC 12Z SUN SLIDES EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THRU
MON. THIS PROVIDES DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. BY 12Z
TUE ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MEAN LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINNING TO DRIFT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER
WITH NEXT UPSTREAM MEAN TROUGH AXIS JUST APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES...DRY WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO MUCH OF TUE. 12Z DETERMINISTIC
RUNS ARE MORE BULLISH/FASTER WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOULD VERIFY BETTER. A MODEL BLEND DEPICTS
THIS NICELY SO WILL FOLLOW ACCORDINGLY.
BY WED AND THU OF NEXT WEEK MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE
REGION YIELDING A HIGH RISK OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS.
AS FOR THE RISK OF STRONG CONVECTION...THE GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATING
LITTLE IF ANY CAPE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH BEST INSTABILITY WEST
ACROSS NY/PA AND NJ. HENCE WARM SECTOR REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE CAN/T RULE OUT TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF WARM FRONT.
BY LATE NEXT WEEK MEAN TROUGH BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND EJECTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW ENGLAND. THUS SOME IMPROVEMENT/ DRYING TREND IS
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
DAILY DETAILS...
SUNDAY...
REAL NICE DAY WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS. CHILLY TO START THE DAY /40S/ BUT STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE
WILL MODIFY THE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S. COOLER
AT THE COAST GIVEN AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.
MONDAY...
HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH SW FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION YIELDING HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S EXCEPT
COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN WIND TRAJECTORY OFF THE COOLER
OCEAN WATERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXITS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRACKS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO NEW ENGLAND. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DEEP LAYER RIDGING MAY LINGER
LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO TUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA. HOWEVER BY WED AND THU ENSEMBLES AGREE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA...THUS HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS
/ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING/ WILL BE WED AND THU. AS
FOR TEMPS...GIVEN ALL MODEL DATASETS SUGGEST TRUE WARM SECTOR
REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF NEW ENGLAND...COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND WARMEST IN THE CT RVR VLY. IN FACT MODELS HINTING A
POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WED/THU POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST MA. THUS COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE AND MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL NOT TRY TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS AND JUST KEEP AN EYE
ON LATER MODEL RUNS.
FRIDAY...
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND EJECTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE RISK OF
SHOWERS...HENCE DRYING TREND POSSIBLE HERE ALONG WITH TEMPS AT LEAST
SEASONABLY WARM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /INTO SUNDAY MORNING/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
7 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER EASTERN CT-CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST BUT WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME. AN
ISOLATED TSTM MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. BUT TRENDS WILL BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN GIVEN SUNSET/LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WEAKENING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST
INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS EVEING. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WIDELY SCT
SHRA LINGER INTO SATURDAY...SWEEPING E TO W DURING THE EARLY-HALF
OF THE DAY. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF SATURDAY.
VFR UNDER BREEZY NE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRES. DENSE IFR-LIFR FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF TSRA
THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT OUT. SHRA MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SHRA/TSRA EXITING
ALY AT 23Z SHOULD WEAKEN AS STORMS APPROACH KBDL.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY/MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY WEATHER. SEABREEZES
SUN AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT LIKELY
LOWERING TO MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /INTO SUNDAY MORNING/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
E/SE FLOW PREVAILING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
SWEEP INTO THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE WATERS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS BACK OUT OF THE NE AND INCREASE
TOWARDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE HAVE RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRES
OVER THE WATERS. LITTLE IF ANY WIND WAVES ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY AND
DRY WEATHER. ONLY POSSIBLE ISSUE WILL BE LEFTOVER 4-6 FT EASTERLY
SWELLS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WATERS OF NANTUCKET.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND YIELDING SW WINDS. LEFTOVER EAST SWELLS 3-6 FT MAY
PERSIST OVER EASTERN OUTER OCEAN WATERS.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S/SE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH
AN INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL - 7 PM
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA - 7 PM
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL - 7 PM
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL - 7 PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL
WEATHER LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO A RENEWED THREAT OF WET-WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER REGION THIS
EVENING WITH MORE SOLID CLOUD COVER REMAINING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. HIGH-RES RAP STILL INSISTS ON LOW CLOUDS/FOG REACHING S
COAST OVERNIGHT. EARLIER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER EVENING
OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SE
MA...W-CAPE...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE
A FEW LOCALES IN THOSE AREAS FALL BELOW 40-DEGREES. THOSE AREAS
THAT RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY...WOULD EXPECT PATCHY GROUND FOG.
SOME UNCERTAINTY...WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK WELL OFFSHORE. PLAUSIBLE
THAT WITH S/SE WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE S-COASTLINE
OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL PREVAIL IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SE CAPE COD
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. UNCERTAIN AS TO ELSEWHERE. WILL LEAVE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT CREW TO ASSESS.
TO THE W...MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH SWEEP NW-SE
THROUGH THE REGION. BROKEN-OVERCAST CLOUDS VIA SATELLITE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO LAKE ONTARIO ADVECT N AND W IN RESPONSE TO ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS N/W-
FACES OF HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH
LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-40S UNDER LIGHT S/SW-WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DIVES NW-SE ACROSS THE NE-CONUS DURING THE
DAY. SUBSEQUENT TROUGHING AND FALLING HEIGHTS PARENT WITH A COLD
FRONT YIELDS AN AREA OF STRONG ASCENT OVER MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND
BENEATH CYCLING FLOW AND MOIST-ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6C PER KM. EXPECTING A POSSIBLE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BUT SOME CONSIDERATIONS TO POINT OUT:
WITH CLOUDS ADVECTING E OVERNIGHT WILL ASSUME LESSER DESTABILIZATION
TO THE W. ANTICIPATE CENTRAL-S/E PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND TO SEE
SUNSHINE ALLOWING BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
STEEPEN TO DRY-ADIABATIC. INSTABILITY SUBSEQUENTLY BUILDS TO AROUND
500 J/KG...AN AXIS OF WHICH WILL EXIST OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ANTICIPATED ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE
BEHIND WHICH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR PREVAILS.
ALSO MUST NOTE THAT STRONGEST WINDS AND BETTER DYNAMICS RESIDE WELL
W OF THE REGION. WHILE NW-SE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PREVAILS...IT IS
MINOR TO MODEST AT MOST...NOT OVERWHELMING. MORE NOTABLY...0-6 KM
MEAN WINDS NW-SE ARE LIGHT AND CARVED VECTORS ARE NEAR-ZERO.
TAKING THE POINTS ABOVE INTO CONSIDERATION AND EVALUATING HIGH-RES
FORECAST MODELS ALONG WITH THE WEAK WIND PATTERN...ANTICIPATE A LINE
OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AS IT RACES SE
IT IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND CLASH WITH
THE ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE. EXACTLY WHERE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR W OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT.
SHOULD SEE EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE
CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER THREATS YET CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE
HAIL AS WET-BULB FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE LOW AROUND 7 KFT. AM
MORE CONCERNED WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ESP ALONG THE N/W FACING SLOPES OF HIGH
TERRAIN. PWATS UP TO AN INCH ARE FORECAST. WILL INSERT THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE FORECAST. HIGHS GETTING UP TO 70-DEGREES.
ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING PERIOD GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC CONVERGENT FLOW ACROSS E NEW ENGLAND...BUT ALL ASIDE
WITH WINDS PREVAILING OUT OF THE N ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* COOL ONSHORE FLOW SAT WITH FEW A SHOWERS INLAND
* DRY AND WARMER SUN/MON
* SHOWERS AT TIMES TUE-THU WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS
OVERVIEW...ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. CLOSED LOW
WELL OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS FARTHER OUT TO SEA SAT...WHICH
ALLOWS SOME OF MIDWEST RIDGING TO SHIFT E INTO OUR AREA SUN/MON.
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FROM THERE AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS DOWN OUT OF
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS/ENSEMBLES VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THIS FEATURE AS IT REACHES GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST MID
TO LATE WEEK...WHICH AFFECTS POSITION OF WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR NEW ENGLAND.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LAST SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE SHOULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AS COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT /NEAR -20C AT 500 MB/ YIELD STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM OCEAN. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
60S TO NEAR 70.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SUN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY MON AS HIGH BUILDS
TO MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE MON NIGHT. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN 60S COAST/70S INLAND SUN THEN WARM INTO 70S/NEAR
80 MON AWAY FROM S COAST /60S/.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST HINGES ON POSITION OF WARM FRONT WHICH IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR JUST S
OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TUE AND AGAIN WED NIGHT/THU PER ENSEMBLES...BUT
ALL THREE DAYS LIKELY TO FEATURE GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND S/SE
FLOW. RELYING HEAVILY ON BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN
60S/70S EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DECAY THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS/VSBYS STILL ON TRACK
TO REACH CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AFTER 06Z AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNRISE.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA SWEEPING NW
TO SE BEGINNING FRIDAY MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR EXCEPT SCT SHOWERS/LOCAL MVFR ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SUN AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WHILE QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF
THE S. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SE
OF NEW ENGLAND...STRONGEST NEAR CAPE COD/ISLANDS BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES SUN...THEN MORE OF S/SW FLOW MON
AS HIGH SHIFTS S OF WATERS. LEFTOVER E SWELL NEAR 5 FT MAY PERSIST
ON OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S/SE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA BUT SEAS ON OUTER WATERS MAY REACH 5 FT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
340 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF A SHARP
TROUGH AXIS BEFORE RIDGING BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA. THE FLOW THEN DROPS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE
IS A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW STALLED NEAR THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL NEVER REALLY
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER AS IT SPINS AND
PLACE AND SLOWLY FILLS DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
29/12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A SEASONABLE PROFILE WITH A PW VALUES OF
JUST UNDER 1.5". MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH A
MEASURED 500MB TEMP AROUND -11C. THIS IS ABOUT A DEGREE COOLER THAN
THE NAM/GFS FORECAST. A DEGREE DOES NOT SOUND LIKE MUCH...BUT CAN BE
ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD OF A RISING AIR PARCEL. EITHER
WAY...-11C IS ON THE COOL SIDE AND SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY UNTIL
LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM THE EARLY CONVECTION BEGINS TO CONTAMINATE
THE OVERALL COLUMN.
AT THE SURFACE...THE FL PENINSULA RESIDES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING A GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW
PATTERN IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER. AS LONG AS THE COLUMN IS NOT TOO
DRY (WHICH IT IS NOT)...THEN THIS FLOW PATTERN TENDS TO BE WET ONE
IN TERMS OF STORMS COVERAGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A MODERATE SE FLOW REGIME IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE EARLIER ACTIVITY HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
HAVE SEEN A FEW MORE FOCUSED STORMS OVER THE NATURE COAST...BUT THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS BEEN DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS AND PUNTA
GORDA. WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO "RIPPLE" NORTHWARD UP THE
SEA-BREEZE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE TAMPA BAY/I-4
CORRIDOR AND THEN EVEN FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH TIME. LOCAL HIRES
WRFARW RUNS AND LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MODERATE UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...INDICATIVE OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS...BUT GENERALLY NOT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIKELY WORDING UP ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
THIS FLOW REGIME USUALLY SEES THE EARLIER ENDING TO THE CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND NATURE COAST
HOLDING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 00-02 UTC. BY LATER THIS
EVENING...ALL AREAS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AND RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS
WELL. 1000-700MB FLOW IS MODERATE (~10KNOTS) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND WITH SIMILAR MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH SHOW
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES SPREADING
NORTH WITH TIME. THOSE WITH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PLANS OUTDOORS
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DEAL WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN/LIGHTNING. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME LOOKS TO FAVOR THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.MID TERM (FRIDAY-SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. ON SATURDAY WITH A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH BEGINNING TO SINK
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY ALONG SEA
BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR
WORKING SOUTHWARD AS WELL. BACKGROUND EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AND WILL STILL SHOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST
AREAS EACH DAY...AND MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THE SOUTH WHERE THE
INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR WILL BE LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN THE AREA WITH SOUTHERN
TERMINALS OF KRSW TO KPGD ALREADY BEING AFFECTED. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THESE AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WHILE
STORMS WORK THEIR WAY NORTHWARD TO THE TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS.
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AND RESULT
IN A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MORE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL FIRE UP ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE TO SEE A STORM AT EACH TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MOIST LOWER LEVELS WILL PREVENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM REACHING
CRITICAL LEVELS...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED. EXPECT TYPICAL AFTERNOON STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY
AS WELL...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 88 74 88 / 50 50 40 50
FMY 72 91 72 91 / 30 70 20 50
GIF 72 89 71 89 / 30 40 30 50
SRQ 72 89 71 88 / 50 50 30 50
BKV 69 88 68 89 / 50 50 40 50
SPG 76 87 75 89 / 50 40 40 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.UPDATE...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF A SHARP
TROUGH AXIS BEFORE RIDGING BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA. THE FLOW THEN DROPS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE
IS A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW STALLED NEAR THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL NEVER REALLY
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER AS IT SPINS AND
PLACE AND SLOWLY FILLS DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
29/12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A SEASONABLE PROFILE WITH A PW VALUES OF
JUST UNDER 1.5". MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH A
MEASURED 500MB TEMP AROUND -11C. THIS IS ABOUT A DEGREE COOLER THAN
THE NAM/GFS FORECAST. A DEGREE DOES NOT SOUND LIKE MUCH...BUT CAN BE
ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD OF A RISING AIR PARCEL. EITHER
WAY...-11C IS ON THE COOL SIDE AND SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY UNTIL
LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM THE EARLY CONVECTION BEGINS TO CONTAMINATE
THE OVERALL COLUMN.
AT THE SURFACE...THE FL PENINSULA RESIDES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING A GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW
PATTERN IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER. AS LONG AS THE COLUMN IS NOT TOO
DRY (WHICH IT IS NOT)...THEN THIS FLOW PATTERN TENDS TO BE WET ONE
IN TERMS OF STORMS COVERAGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THIS FLOW WOULD SUGGEST THAT INITIALLY THE BEST
STORM CHANCES WILL BE DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FT MYERS TO PUNTA GORDA...WITH THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
"RIPPLING" UP THE SEA-BREEZE TOWARD TAMPA BAY AND THE NATURE COAST
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LOCAL WRFARW ENSEMBLES ALSO AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE
UPDATED THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF THE STORM PATTERN IN
THE FORECAST GRIDS TO MATCH THIS PHILOSOPHY.
LOCAL HIRES ARW SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO INDICATING MAXIMUM UPDRAFT
VELOCITIES BETWEEN 14-16 M/S. THIS VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THESE
UPDRAFT VELOCITY VALUES OBVIOUSLY ARE NOT PERFECT...IN TERMS OF
EXACT VALUES OR LOCATIONS...BUT DO GIVE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF
ATMOSPHERIC POTENTIAL.
THE SW FLOW PATTERN USUALLY HAS AN EARLIER ENDING TO THE SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY AND A LATER ENDING FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. SO...KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH 10-11 PM AND THEN
WIND EVERYTHING DOWN. THIS WILL GIVE US A GENERALLY QUIET OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND STORMS SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR FOR
FRIDAY...SO APPEARS THAT WE WILL DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN TOMORROW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FIELDS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL GIVE
WAY TO A SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. THREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD FIRST EXIST AROUND KFMY/KRSW
DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD UP THE COAST TOWARD THE
TAMPA BAY TERMINALS BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHIFT SHIFT NORTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINALS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNSET ALLOWING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 72 89 74 / 60 50 60 40
FMY 91 71 90 72 / 60 30 60 40
GIF 91 71 90 71 / 60 30 60 30
SRQ 87 71 87 71 / 60 50 40 40
BKV 89 67 89 68 / 60 50 60 40
SPG 88 75 88 75 / 60 50 50 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN/PERRINI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
913 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND
MOISTURE INCREASES IN A LOW LEVEL S/SE FLOW. 10Z SOUNDING FROM THE
CAPE ALREADY SHOWS A MORE MOIST COLUMN WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.7
INCHES. ALSO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION INITIALLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
CONVECTION SHOULD START TO INCREASE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY NEAR TO
WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATER IN THE DAY WHERE SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES UP TO
30-40% ALONG THE TREASURE COAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF. OTHERWISE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
THE SAME...RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT ALONG THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA
COAST UP TO 50-60 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...SMALL
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
THREATS.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. THIS MAY LEAD TO MAX TEMPS A SLIGHTLY LOWER
OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS FORECAST FOR THE
UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS IN INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND
INLAND OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY NEAR TO WEST OF
KMCO LATER IN THE DAY WHERE SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THEN INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SEA BREEZE CONTRIBUTIONS.
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KNOTS. SEAS RANGING FROM 1-2 FEET.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1022 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE MIDLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR
THE NC/SC BORDER WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE MIDLANDS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. AS OF
LATE THIS EVENING...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY WITH
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE CSRA. WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS HOLDS ON TO 1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NAM DRIES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER. FRONTAL
FORCING WITH POSSIBLE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 SOUTH AND WEST OF I-26.
CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD WITH 30-40 POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS...20 OR LESS NORTH. SPC HAS THIS REGION IN GENERAL
THUNDER SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT PERSISTING AND RESULTING SLOW MOVING
CELLS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD BEFORE FLATTENING OUT IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF TROFS
SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US STARTING MID WEEK. MAINLY DRY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER RIDGE. WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INCREASING POPS BY MID WEEK. RIBBON OF
GULF MOISTURE ON WEST SIDE OF HIGH JUST OFF SE COAST WILL AID IN
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS HINT AT
WEAKENING FRONT SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROBABLY LIMITED
AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE
FORECAST AREA STAYS IN LIGHT UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS MAIN TROF ENERGY STAYS WELL NORTH. SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD...WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SECOND HALF.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR SUPPORTS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
IN THE CSRA THIS EVENING...BUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THESE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF AGS/DNL TERMINALS.
ELSEWHERE...WITH FRONT REMAINING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT/NOCTURNAL COOLING
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTS STRATUS AND OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
06Z...SO EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND FOCUS MAY BE SHIFTING SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON STORMS APPEARS
TO BE IN THE CSRA. VFR DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND RESTRICTIONS
MAINLY NEAR CONVECTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF A STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE DURING MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
A WEAK RIDGE. THE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT IN
THIS RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED H5
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COLD AROUND -8 C....WHICH IS A BIT WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. AN EAST- WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY
THIS EVENING...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY WITH SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE CSRA.
LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR BECAUSE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SO
EXPECT LIMITED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BECAUSE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.8 OF AN INCH AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR BECAUSE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING. WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS HOLDS ON TO 1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NAM DRIES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER. FRONTAL
FORCING WITH POSSIBLE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 SOUTH AND WEST OF I-26.
CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD WITH 30-40 POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS...20 OR LESS NORTH. SPC HAS THIS REGION IN GENERAL
THUNDER SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER
WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT PERSISTING AND RESULTING SLOW MOVING
CELLS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD BEFORE FLATTENING OUT IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF TROFS
SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US STARTING MID WEEK. MAINLY DRY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER RIDGE. WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INCREASING POPS BY MID WEEK. RIBBON OF
GULF MOISTURE ON WEST SIDE OF HIGH JUST OFF SE COAST WILL AID IN
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS HINT AT
WEAKENING FRONT SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROBABLY LIMITED
AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE
FORECAST AREA STAYS IN LIGHT UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS MAIN TROF ENERGY STAYS WELL NORTH. SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD...WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SECOND HALF.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR SUPPORTS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
IN THE CSRA THIS EVENING...BUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THESE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF AGS/DNL TERMINALS.
ELSEWHERE...WITH FRONT REMAINING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT/NOCTURNAL COOLING
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTS STRATUS AND OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
06Z...SO EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND FOCUS MAY BE SHIFTING SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON STORMS APPEARS
TO BE IN THE CSRA. VFR DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND RESTRICTIONS
MAINLY NEAR CONVECTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF A STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE DURING MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
237 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY...WHILE DRIER AIR PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH TO START OFF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE CAUGHT IN THIS RIDGE. THE MAIN
SURFACE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVERGENCE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
PATTERN SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH COVERAGE LIMITED BY
SLOW MOVEMENT. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS OVER MOST AREAS.
EARLY AFTERNOON LAPS SOUNDINGS HAD PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.7 OF AN INCH. THE SOUNDINGS
SHOWED STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND
THE LAPSE RATES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS...WHILE THE MAIN WIND PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WHICH SUPPORTS SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.
TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND INTERACTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. THE SPC AND CAE WRF INDICATE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE MAINLY
IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE FORECASTED A LOWER POP LATE BECAUSE OF DIURNAL
COOLING AND PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
STATES WITH THE WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STATES EDGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. THE FRONT THE SLOWLY TRACK THROUGH
THE THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ON FRIDAY...BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS ON SATURDAY...FINALLY MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND INSTABILITY MODERATE EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE THE
HIGHEST SO FAR THIS WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONCERN FOR FRIDAY
REMAINS LOW AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 12 KFT AND
FREEZING LEVELS OVER 13 KFT...HOWEVER WITH PWAT VALUES BEING 1.7
INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA DAMAGING
WINDS FROM PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN
WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
ON SATURDAY PWAT VALUES WILL BE 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. THIS WILL CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CSRA WHERE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
STRONGEST...WHILE DRIER AIR ENTERING THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE LOW...HOWEVER WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT PERSISTING AND
RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING CELLS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS FOR THE LONG TERM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE
ZONAL FOR TUESDAY ONWARD. THE FRONT MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AND STALL AS HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF NC TAKES CONTROL
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRACKS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BE IN THE AREA
TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
PRECIPITATION LOADING PLUS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR MAXIMUM HEATING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO STATUS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE GFS MOS AND LAMP PLUS NAM MOS WERE CONSISTENT
INDICATING IFR OR MVFR FOG AT THE RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS
AND DNL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF A STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE DURING MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
142 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY...WHILE DRIER AIR PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH TO START OFF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE CAUGHT IN THIS RIDGE. THE MAIN
SURFACE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVERGENCE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
PATTERN SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH COVERAGE LIMITED BY
SLOW MOVEMENT. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS OVER MOST AREAS.
EARLY AFTERNOON LAPS SOUNDINGS HAD PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.7 OF AN INCH. THE SOUNDINGS
SHOWED STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND
THE LAPSE RATES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS...WHILE THE MAIN WIND PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WHICH SUPPORTS SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.
TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND INTERACTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. THE SPC AND CAE WRF INDICATE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE MAINLY
IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE FORECASTED A LOWER POP LATE BECAUSE OF DIURNAL
COOLING AND PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST DIGS SOUTHWARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO SATURDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S BOTH DAYS...WHILE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE CENTER OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD...SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BY SUNDAY. STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SPIN WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BE IN THE AREA
TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
PRECIPITATION LOADING PLUS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR MAXIMUM HEATING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO STATUS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE GFS MOS AND LAMP PLUS NAM MOS WERE CONSISTENT
INDICATING IFR OR MVFR FOG AT THE RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS
AND DNL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF A STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE DURING MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
128 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014/
OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO...THE HRRR DOES KEEP SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IN AFTER 06Z...SO HAVE DONE THE SAME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GENERAL TRENDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STRANDED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY GETS NO KICKER TO MOVE AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IT DOES
NOT CONNECT WITH THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH BEFORE THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ISOLATES IT ONCE AGAIN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD SO
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT ZERO...
REMAIN SMALL AND SHOULD ACTUALLY DIMINISH SOME AGAIN THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
20
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY SIMILAR WITH PULSE
THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT LOSING SOME
INSTABILITY FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEDGE HELPS TO STABILIZE
THE AREA. CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO VERY LITTLE IN
TERMS OF CHANGES. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
11
/ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014/
MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. WEAK
UPPER LOW WITH A BROAD AND DEEP MOISTURE FIELD LINGERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DECENT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS THEN
SOME CONTINUED WEAKER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
SHEAR WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE
PULSE VARIETY WITH EVOLUTION LARGELY OUTFLOW DRIVEN OR RIDING ALONG
WAVES OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME STRONG AND FEW
SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET AS HAS BEEN THE RECENT
TREND.
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND A SFC
HIGH SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST LOOKS TO RESULT IN HYBRID
CAD. THE WEDGE FRONT LATER SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED
FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WHILE THE CAD LOOKS TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS THE PARENT HIGH SLIDES EVENT FARTHER SOUTH...THE
RIDGING SHOULD STILL SERVE TO STABILIZE MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE
EAST AND LESSEN SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BETTER
STORM CHANCE STARTS TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN.
FOR TEMPS...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FROM A GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE
AND VALUES GENERALLY 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOOK REASONABLE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON TAP SUNDAY AND MONDAY FROM BRIEF WEDGE.
BAKER
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER NORTH GA BUT THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 09Z AND SHOULD NOT MOVE OVER ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP IN AHN/MCN/PDK/FTY WHERE RAIN FELL OVER OR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT DURING YESTERDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE
SAME FOR LATER TODAY WITH CU FIELD FORMING AND SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON
ALL LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM/NEAR CALM EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 88 64 88 / 40 40 40 40
ATLANTA 67 85 67 86 / 50 40 30 40
BLAIRSVILLE 59 83 61 82 / 40 40 40 40
CARTERSVILLE 63 86 63 87 / 50 40 30 40
COLUMBUS 68 88 67 88 / 40 40 30 40
GAINESVILLE 66 86 66 86 / 40 40 40 40
MACON 65 88 65 88 / 70 40 30 40
ROME 64 86 63 87 / 50 40 30 40
PEACHTREE CITY 64 86 63 87 / 50 40 30 40
VIDALIA 69 90 69 90 / 70 40 30 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
106 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1131 AM CDT
MORNING UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST...MAINLY TO ADJUST SKY
TRENDS FOR EROSION OF STUBBORN LOW STRATUS OVER SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST CWA AND TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS. DESPITE CWA BEING ON "COOL" SIDE OF STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AIR MASS IS STILL QUITE
WARM AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INFLUENCE...WITH +14C AND +15C
RESPECTIVELY ON 12Z DVN AND ILX RAOBS AT 850 MB. SOUNDINGS DON`T
SHOW MIXING QUITE TO THIS LEVEL...BUT DRY ADIABATING MIXING TO 900
MB SHOULD YIELD LOW 80S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND SOME
MID 80S FAR SOUTH WHERE IT IS ALREADY 80 AS OF 11AM AT TIP.
ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE...MAINTAINED GOING HIGHS. NOT EXPECTING
STRATUS TO SURGE INLAND LIKE LATE YESTERDAY...BUT ENHANCED LAKE
COOLING SHOULD PUSH INLAND LATER TODAY.
OTHER CONCERN IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
CWA JUST TO THE NORTH OF STALLED BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS HAVE
REMAINED WELL INTO THE 60S AND MODIFYING THE MORNING ILX SOUNDING
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE STRATUS DECK RESULTS IN VERY
LITTLE IF ANY CAP REMAINING. GIVEN PRESENCE OF REMNANT SHORTWAVE
FROM YESTERDAY AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLE INFLUENCE
OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS LOW CLOUDS ERODE...COVERAGE COULD BE A
BIT HIGHER THAN 20 POPS INDICATED IN GRIDS IN FAR SOUTHERN CWA.
FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED GOING POPS AS CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO
FIRE IN AGITATED CU FIELD TO THE SOUTH IN THE ILX CWA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. IF CONVECTION DOES BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN DUE TO VERY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS.
RC
//PREV DISCUSSION...
346 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS ON DRIER NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WINDS TODAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND THREAT OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING DOWNSTATE ALONG/SOUTH OF WFO LOT/ILX BORDER.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LAKE
COOLING. A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
FOR DAYS 4-7 (SUNDAY-NEXT WEDNESDAY)...AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS WHICH TAKES UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT
STRETCHING WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL/IN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WEAKENING SHEARED MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH WHILE GETTING PULLED INTO CIRCULATION
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VARIOUS
HIGH-RES CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE DEPICTS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...THUS
HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF ABOUT A FAIRBURY TO
WATSEKA TO FOWLER LINE. FARTHER NORTH...NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE AREA FROM
ACROSS THE LAKES. PATCHY LOW CLOUD COVER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WARMING AND DRYING FROM ABOVE AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY...PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STEADY MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
EAST DURING THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO THE
EAST AND ALLOWING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER
SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING THE AMOUNT OF LAKE COOLING. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HAVE
GENERALLY UTILIZED WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S EXPECTED TODAY WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKE WARMING TO THE
LOW-MID 80S BY SATURDAY. AS FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE DECREASES WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS...SHORE AREAS SHOULD ALSO MODERATE FROM THE
LOW-MID 60S TODAY TO THE LOW-MID 70S BY SATURDAY. DRY AIR WILL
SUPPORT COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL...WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE LAKE.
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
AS A STRONG UPPER JET MAX SPREADS ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE FAR UPPER
MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE LIFTING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...HELPING INDUCE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND VEERING LOW
LEVEL WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IL TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING ALONG EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE SUBTLE WARM FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AS AREA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS MID-UPPER 80S AND
DEW POINT TEMPS 65-70 PROGGED.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH DETAILS OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH INTO A VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS. WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.5-2.0
INCHES PER GFS SOUNDINGS) WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ESPECIALLY MON-WED
ALSO SUGGESTS SEVERE MCS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED RATHER
BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...THOUGH DETAILS SUCH
AS THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (LIKELY MODULATED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS)...AS WELL AS INDIVIDUAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES
WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NELY-ELY WINDS ARND 10KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THROUGH SUNSET.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE LOW STRATUS BURNED OFF BY LATE MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WIND DIRECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND COMPLEX TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS WILL BE ELY OR ENEY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 10KT. WITH WEAK WINDS
ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTINESS...THOUGH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15KT IS POSSIBLE. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT
THE LOW LEVELS TO DECOUPLE AT SUNSET AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF TO
AROUND 5KT OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
SOME ISOLD BR DEVELOPMENT DURG THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT ANY VIS
RESTRICTIONS WOULD LIKELY BE AT RFD/DPA RATHER THAN THE MORE URBAN
SITES.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARILY VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
246 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY
SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...MODEST NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE WHERE IT MAY PEAK AROUND 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1215 PM CDT Thu May 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1036 AM CDT Thu May 29 2014
Back-door cool front has slipped south to just north of the I-70
corridor. True push of cool/dry air lags well north of the front,
though northeast flow north of the boundary has brought slightly
cooler and less humid air into the far northern CWA with dewpoints
in the low 60s, while upper 60s dewpoints remain over the central
and south. Aloft, water vapor imagery indicates a cutoff low
spinning through the lower MS valley with the northern fringes of
this feature bringing clouds into the southern CWA and lift
producing showers in far southern IL/IN. A separate weak shortwave
was noted in NW IL and is forecast to get absorbed into the
circulation of the upper low as is shifts SE today. 12Z ILX
sounding shows little airmass change from yesterday even as the
front has shifted south. Given afternoon CAPEs near 2000 J/kg and
light wind fields aloft, expect isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development as convective temperatures are reached. Hi-res models
show this possible for much of the CWA except the far north where
somewhat drier air should keep areas north of Peoria and Galesburg
dry. For the bulk of the CWA, slow moving iso/sct storms will
produce brief heavy rain rates. Given high instability and weak
shear with a boundary in the area, isolated land spouts will again
be a concern. Non-supercell tor parameters off RAP and NAM
suggest the central/southern CWA will again be at risk during
early to mid afternoon, especially near the main synoptic boundary or
mesoscale boundary interactions. Raised max temps a degree or two
with highs in the lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1215 PM CDT Thu May 29 2014
A weak cool front has slipped south of the I-72 terminals this
morning. Calm winds in the vicinity of the boundary become
ENE at 5-10 kts north of the boundary. This general wind flow is
expected through this TAF cycle as the front slowly shifts farther
south, and high pressure remains perched over the Great Lakes.
Isolated to scattered instability showers/storms have already
developed and will continue through late afternoon, despite the
front being to our south. Due to low coverage, have VCTS in TAFs and
will amend for tempo groups if conditions warrant. Brief reductions
to IFR cigs/vsbys possible in +TSRA. Diurnal decrease in activity
this evening with VFR conditions predominant through Thu morning.
Exception would be within a few hours of sunrise, with patchy MVFR
fog possible due to light winds and high RH.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 250 AM CDT Thu May 29 2014
Weak frontal boundary centered just north of the I-70 corridor
early this morning. High pressure over the Great Lakes is
providing a northeast flow behind the front, which has dropped dew
points into the 50s from Galesburg to Bloomington northward, while
mid to upper 60s still prevail elsewhere. Still a fair amount of
cloud cover over the forecast area, some streaming north from the
ever-present upper low, now centered in south central Arkansas.
There were a few showers recently near the boundary which drifted
northwest due to that low, although these have now faded out.
Rain chances continue to be the primary forecast concern, with
next week`s chances a bit more challenging due to more model
disagreement.
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday:
The frontal boundary should be quasi-stationary between the I-72
and I-70 corridors today, and will be the focus for the next round
of scattered showers and storms beginning around noon. Have had
some heavier pockets of rain recently, and with precipitable water
values around 1.5 to 1.6 inches, today shouldn`t be any different.
Severe weather threat remains minimal due to low shear values, but
cannot rule out some isolated funnels or land spouts similar to
yesterday, with the boundary overhead. Non-supercell tornado
parameter from the RAP model focuses on a couple areas, one along
the I-74 corridor just north of the main precipitation area, and
the other along I-72 near the boundary. Any such activity would be
most likely between noon and 4 pm.
The boundary will be pushed southward again tonight as an upper
high slides moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. As it will
not make it terribly far, the convection on Friday and Saturday will
be close by, but mostly out of our forecast area. Have maintained
some 20% PoP`s along the southern CWA border Friday afternoon, but
kept Saturday dry for now.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday:
Upper ridging breaks down during the weekend with more of a
southwest flow across the nation early next week, and the northern
jet stream along the Canadian border. Right now the ECMWF is the
odd model out in developing an upper low over the upper
Mississippi Valley which slowly drifts eastward through the Great
Lakes during the week, while the GFS, GEM and GFS ensembles have
more of periodic shortwave interaction between the two upper flows.
Sunday into early Monday are in most agreement with rain chances,
but trends widen after that. The ECMWF and the GEM to an extent
have the surface cyclone somewhat in agreement into Tuesday with
the cold front coming through, which would support the rain
chances continuing. Toward mid week, there is much more
uncertainty as the GFS never actually brings the front through and
holds it up near I-80, thus lingering rain chances, while the
ECMWF is dry. Have kept some PoP`s in for Wednesday for now, but
scaled them back from the initial blended guidance.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1103 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
346 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS ON DRIER NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WINDS TODAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND THREAT OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING DOWNSTATE ALONG/SOUTH OF WFO LOT/ILX BORDER.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LAKE
COOLING. A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
FOR DAYS 4-7 (SUNDAY-NEXT WEDNESDAY)...AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS WHICH TAKES UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT
STRETCHING WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL/IN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WEAKENING SHEARED MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH WHILE GETTING PULLED INTO CIRCULATION
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VARIOUS
HIGH-RES CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE DEPICTS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...THUS
HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF ABOUT A FAIRBURY TO
WATSEKA TO FOWLER LINE. FARTHER NORTH...NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE AREA FROM
ACROSS THE LAKES. PATCHY LOW CLOUD COVER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WARMING AND DRYING FROM ABOVE AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY...PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STEADY MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
EAST DURING THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO THE
EAST AND ALLOWING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER
SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING THE AMOUNT OF LAKE COOLING. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HAVE
GENERALLY UTILIZED WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S EXPECTED TODAY WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKE WARMING TO THE
LOW-MID 80S BY SATURDAY. AS FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE DECREASES WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS...SHORE AREAS SHOULD ALSO MODERATE FROM THE
LOW-MID 60S TODAY TO THE LOW-MID 70S BY SATURDAY. DRY AIR WILL
SUPPORT COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL...WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE LAKE.
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
AS A STRONG UPPER JET MAX SPREADS ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE FAR UPPER
MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE LIFTING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...HELPING INDUCE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND VEERING LOW
LEVEL WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IL TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING ALONG EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE SUBTLE WARM FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AS AREA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS MID-UPPER 80S AND
DEW POINT TEMPS 65-70 PROGGED.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH DETAILS OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH INTO A VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS. WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.5-2.0
INCHES PER GFS SOUNDINGS) WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ESPECIALLY MON-WED
ALSO SUGGESTS SEVERE MCS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED RATHER
BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...THOUGH DETAILS SUCH
AS THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (LIKELY MODULATED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS)...AS WELL AS INDIVIDUAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES
WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NELY-ELY WINDS ARND 10KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
IFR/MVFR STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT MID TO
LATE THIS MORNING AND RETURNING TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH MODEST NORTHEAST WIND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP
THROUGH THE MORNING...TOPPING OUT A LITTLE OVER 10 KTS BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER VFR DAY IS ON TAP TOMORROW WITH WINDS OUT OF THE EAST.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARILY VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
246 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY
SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...MODEST NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE WHERE IT MAY PEAK AROUND 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1036 AM CDT Thu May 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1036 AM CDT Thu May 29 2014
Back-door cool front has slipped south to just north of the I-70
corridor. True push of cool/dry air lags well north of the front,
though northeast flow north of the boundary has brought slightly
cooler and less humid air into the far northern CWA with dewpoints
in the low 60s, while upper 60s dewpoints remain over the central
and south. Aloft, water vapor imagery indicates a cutoff low
spinning through the lower MS valley with the northern fringes of
this feature bringing clouds into the southern CWA and lift
producing showers in far southern IL/IN. A separate weak shortwave
was noted in NW IL and is forecast to get absorbed into the
circulation of the upper low as is shifts SE today. 12Z ILX
sounding shows little airmass change from yesterday even as the
front has shifted south. Given afternoon CAPEs near 2000 J/kg and
light wind fields aloft, expect isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development as convective temperatures are reached. Hi-res models
show this possible for much of the CWA except the far north where
somewhat drier air should keep areas north of Peoria and Galesburg
dry. For the bulk of the CWA, slow moving iso/sct storms will
produce brief heavy rain rates. Given high instability and weak
shear with a boundary in the area, isolated land spouts will again
be a concern. Non-supercell tor parameters off RAP and NAM
suggest the central/southern CWA will again be at risk during
early to mid afternoon, especially near the main synoptic boundary or
mesoscale boundary interactions. Raised max temps a degree or two
with highs in the lower 80s.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CDT Thu May 29 2014
Areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys possible thru 14z...then VFR conditions
expected into this evening. The front that moved thru our area
last evening has shifted well south of the TAF sites. As a result,
winds have become east to northeast over the entire area and are
expected to remain that way today. A band of MVFR cigs with some
local IFR cigs noted on the latest satellite data just to our
north and east, tracking west and northwest. The bulk of the lower
cigs will remain just to our north over the next few hours but
over the past few hours have noted an increase in stratus on the
southwest flank of the cloud bank so may have to include a period
of IFR cigs at KBMI in the 12z-15z time frame.
Once we burn of the fog/hz and cig restrictions this morning,
forecast soundings suggest a rapid increase in cumulus after 15z
with scattered to broken cigs at or above 5000 feet by late morning
into the afternoon hours. Will continue with VCTS at all TAF sites
but it appears the better coverage of storms will be south of I74
this afternoon. Any convection that does develop this afternoon
should dissipate by early this evening but with the residual low
level moisture in place, we could see some MVFR vsbys develop again
in fog aftr 08z. East to northeast winds will prevail today with
speeds of 8 to 13 kts and the trend more from an east direction
tonight at less than 10 kts.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 250 AM CDT Thu May 29 2014
Weak frontal boundary centered just north of the I-70 corridor
early this morning. High pressure over the Great Lakes is
providing a northeast flow behind the front, which has dropped dew
points into the 50s from Galesburg to Bloomington northward, while
mid to upper 60s still prevail elsewhere. Still a fair amount of
cloud cover over the forecast area, some streaming north from the
ever-present upper low, now centered in south central Arkansas.
There were a few showers recently near the boundary which drifted
northwest due to that low, although these have now faded out.
Rain chances continue to be the primary forecast concern, with
next week`s chances a bit more challenging due to more model
disagreement.
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday:
The frontal boundary should be quasi-stationary between the I-72
and I-70 corridors today, and will be the focus for the next round
of scattered showers and storms beginning around noon. Have had
some heavier pockets of rain recently, and with precipitable water
values around 1.5 to 1.6 inches, today shouldn`t be any different.
Severe weather threat remains minimal due to low shear values, but
cannot rule out some isolated funnels or land spouts similar to
yesterday, with the boundary overhead. Non-supercell tornado
parameter from the RAP model focuses on a couple areas, one along
the I-74 corridor just north of the main precipitation area, and
the other along I-72 near the boundary. Any such activity would be
most likely between noon and 4 pm.
The boundary will be pushed southward again tonight as an upper
high slides moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. As it will
not make it terribly far, the convection on Friday and Saturday will
be close by, but mostly out of our forecast area. Have maintained
some 20% PoP`s along the southern CWA border Friday afternoon, but
kept Saturday dry for now.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday:
Upper ridging breaks down during the weekend with more of a
southwest flow across the nation early next week, and the northern
jet stream along the Canadian border. Right now the ECMWF is the
odd model out in developing an upper low over the upper
Mississippi Valley which slowly drifts eastward through the Great
Lakes during the week, while the GFS, GEM and GFS ensembles have
more of periodic shortwave interaction between the two upper flows.
Sunday into early Monday are in most agreement with rain chances,
but trends widen after that. The ECMWF and the GEM to an extent
have the surface cyclone somewhat in agreement into Tuesday with
the cold front coming through, which would support the rain
chances continuing. Toward mid week, there is much more
uncertainty as the GFS never actually brings the front through and
holds it up near I-80, thus lingering rain chances, while the
ECMWF is dry. Have kept some PoP`s in for Wednesday for now, but
scaled them back from the initial blended guidance.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
633 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
346 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS ON DRIER NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WINDS TODAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND THREAT OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING DOWNSTATE ALONG/SOUTH OF WFO LOT/ILX BORDER.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LAKE
COOLING. A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
FOR DAYS 4-7 (SUNDAY-NEXT WEDNESDAY)...AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS WHICH TAKES UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT
STRETCHING WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL/IN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WEAKENING SHEARED MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH WHILE GETTING PULLED INTO CIRCULATION
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VARIOUS
HIGH-RES CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE DEPICTS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...THUS
HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF ABOUT A FAIRBURY TO
WATSEKA TO FOWLER LINE. FARTHER NORTH...NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE AREA FROM
ACROSS THE LAKES. PATCHY LOW CLOUD COVER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WARMING AND DRYING FROM ABOVE AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY...PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STEADY MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
EAST DURING THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO THE
EAST AND ALLOWING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER
SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING THE AMOUNT OF LAKE COOLING. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HAVE
GENERALLY UTILIZED WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S EXPECTED TODAY WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKE WARMING TO THE
LOW-MID 80S BY SATURDAY. AS FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE DECREASES WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS...SHORE AREAS SHOULD ALSO MODERATE FROM THE
LOW-MID 60S TODAY TO THE LOW-MID 70S BY SATURDAY. DRY AIR WILL
SUPPORT COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL...WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE LAKE.
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
AS A STRONG UPPER JET MAX SPREADS ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE FAR UPPER
MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE LIFTING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...HELPING INDUCE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND VEERING LOW
LEVEL WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IL TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING ALONG EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE SUBTLE WARM FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AS AREA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS MID-UPPER 80S AND
DEW POINT TEMPS 65-70 PROGGED.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH DETAILS OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH INTO A VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS. WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.5-2.0
INCHES PER GFS SOUNDINGS) WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ESPECIALLY MON-WED
ALSO SUGGESTS SEVERE MCS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED RATHER
BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...THOUGH DETAILS SUCH
AS THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (LIKELY MODULATED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS)...AS WELL AS INDIVIDUAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES
WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* MVFR/IFR CIGS SCATTERING OUT MID TO LATE MORNING.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
IFR/MVFR STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT MID TO
LATE THIS MORNING AND RETURNING TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH MODEST NORTHEAST WIND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP
THROUGH THE MORNING...TOPPING OUT A LITTLE OVER 10 KTS BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER VFR DAY IS ON TAP TOMORROW WITH WINDS OUT OF THE EAST.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF LOWER CIGS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS....
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARILY VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
246 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY
SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...MODEST NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE WHERE IT MAY PEAK AROUND 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
602 AM CDT Thu May 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 250 AM CDT Thu May 29 2014
Weak frontal boundary centered just north of the I-70 corridor
early this morning. High pressure over the Great Lakes is
providing a northeast flow behind the front, which has dropped dew
points into the 50s from Galesburg to Bloomington northward, while
mid to upper 60s still prevail elsewhere. Still a fair amount of
cloud cover over the forecast area, some streaming north from the
ever-present upper low, now centered in south central Arkansas.
There were a few showers recently near the boundary which drifted
northwest due to that low, although these have now faded out.
Rain chances continue to be the primary forecast concern, with
next week`s chances a bit more challenging due to more model
disagreement.
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday:
The frontal boundary should be quasi-stationary between the I-72
and I-70 corridors today, and will be the focus for the next round
of scattered showers and storms beginning around noon. Have had
some heavier pockets of rain recently, and with precipitable water
values around 1.5 to 1.6 inches, today shouldn`t be any different.
Severe weather threat remains minimal due to low shear values, but
cannot rule out some isolated funnels or land spouts similar to
yesterday, with the boundary overhead. Non-supercell tornado
parameter from the RAP model focuses on a couple areas, one along
the I-74 corridor just north of the main precipitation area, and
the other along I-72 near the boundary. Any such activity would be
most likely between noon and 4 pm.
The boundary will be pushed southward again tonight as an upper
high slides moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. As it will
not make it terribly far, the convection on Friday and Saturday will
be close by, but mostly out of our forecast area. Have maintained
some 20% PoP`s along the southern CWA border Friday afternoon, but
kept Saturday dry for now.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday:
Upper ridging breaks down during the weekend with more of a
southwest flow across the nation early next week, and the northern
jet stream along the Canadian border. Right now the ECMWF is the
odd model out in developing an upper low over the upper
Mississippi Valley which slowly drifts eastward through the Great
Lakes during the week, while the GFS, GEM and GFS ensembles have
more of periodic shortwave interaction between the two upper flows.
Sunday into early Monday are in most agreement with rain chances,
but trends widen after that. The ECMWF and the GEM to an extent
have the surface cyclone somewhat in agreement into Tuesday with
the cold front coming through, which would support the rain
chances continuing. Toward mid week, there is much more
uncertainty as the GFS never actually brings the front through and
holds it up near I-80, thus lingering rain chances, while the
ECMWF is dry. Have kept some PoP`s in for Wednesday for now, but
scaled them back from the initial blended guidance.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CDT Thu May 29 2014
Areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys possible thru 14z...then VFR conditions
expected into this evening. The front that moved thru our area
last evening has shifted well south of the TAF sites. As a result,
winds have become east to northeast over the entire area and are
expected to remain that way today. A band of MVFR cigs with some
local IFR cigs noted on the latest satellite data just to our
north and east, tracking west and northwest. The bulk of the lower
cigs will remain just to our north over the next few hours but
over the past few hours have noted an increase in stratus on the
southwest flank of the cloud bank so may have to include a period
of IFR cigs at KBMI in the 12z-15z time frame.
Once we burn of the fog/hz and cig restrictions this morning,
forecast soundings suggest a rapid increase in cumulus after 15z
with scattered to broken cigs at or above 5000 feet by late morning
into the afternoon hours. Will continue with VCTS at all TAF sites
but it appears the better coverage of storms will be south of I74
this afternoon. Any convection that does develop this afternoon
should dissipate by early this evening but with the residual low
level moisture in place, we could see some MVFR vsbys develop again
in fog aftr 08z. East to northeast winds will prevail today with
speeds of 8 to 13 kts and the trend more from an east direction
tonight at less than 10 kts.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
347 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
346 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS ON DRIER NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WINDS TODAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND THREAT OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING DOWNSTATE ALONG/SOUTH OF WFO LOT/ILX BORDER.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LAKE
COOLING. A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
FOR DAYS 4-7 (SUNDAY-NEXT WEDNESDAY)...AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS WHICH TAKES UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT
STRETCHING WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL/IN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WEAKENING SHEARED MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH WHILE GETTING PULLED INTO CIRCULATION
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VARIOUS
HIGH-RES CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE DEPICTS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...THUS
HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF ABOUT A FAIRBURY TO
WATSEKA TO FOWLER LINE. FARTHER NORTH...NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE AREA FROM
ACROSS THE LAKES. PATCHY LOW CLOUD COVER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WARMING AND DRYING FROM ABOVE AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY...PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STEADY MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
EAST DURING THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO THE
EAST AND ALLOWING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER
SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING THE AMOUNT OF LAKE COOLING. WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HAVE
GENERALLY UTILIZED WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S EXPECTED TODAY WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKE WARMING TO THE
LOW-MID 80S BY SATURDAY. AS FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE DECREASES WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS...SHORE AREAS SHOULD ALSO MODERATE FROM THE
LOW-MID 60S TODAY TO THE LOW-MID 70S BY SATURDAY. DRY AIR WILL
SUPPORT COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL...WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE LAKE.
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
AS A STRONG UPPER JET MAX SPREADS ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE FAR UPPER
MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE LIFTING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...HELPING INDUCE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND VEERING LOW
LEVEL WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IL TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING ALONG EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE SUBTLE WARM FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AS AREA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS MID-UPPER 80S AND
DEW POINT TEMPS 65-70 PROGGED.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH DETAILS OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH INTO A VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS. WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.5-2.0
INCHES PER GFS SOUNDINGS) WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ESPECIALLY MON-WED
ALSO SUGGESTS SEVERE MCS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED RATHER
BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...THOUGH DETAILS SUCH
AS THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (LIKELY MODULATED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS)...AS WELL AS INDIVIDUAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES
WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADING TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD PROVIDING LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP SOME DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND MAY PUSH A LITTLE ABOVE 10 KT FOR A WHILE WITH AN
EXTRA PUSH FROM THE LAKE. THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD IS THE PRESENCE OF MVFR CIGS IN THE AREA WHICH ARE PROGGED
TO SPREAD WEST OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. GUIDANCE MAY BE
OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOME BUT THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF
STRATUS/FOG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL AS PATCHY MVFR STRATUS OVER
N IN/SW MI THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS/TIMING.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
246 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY
SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...MODEST NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE WHERE IT MAY PEAK AROUND 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
252 AM CDT Thu May 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 250 AM CDT Thu May 29 2014
Weak frontal boundary centered just north of the I-70 corridor
early this morning. High pressure over the Great Lakes is
providing a northeast flow behind the front, which has dropped dew
points into the 50s from Galesburg to Bloomington northward, while
mid to upper 60s still prevail elsewhere. Still a fair amount of
cloud cover over the forecast area, some streaming north from the
ever-present upper low, now centered in south central Arkansas.
There were a few showers recently near the boundary which drifted
northwest due to that low, although these have now faded out.
Rain chances continue to be the primary forecast concern, with
next week`s chances a bit more challenging due to more model
disagreement.
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday:
The frontal boundary should be quasi-stationary between the I-72
and I-70 corridors today, and will be the focus for the next round
of scattered showers and storms beginning around noon. Have had
some heavier pockets of rain recently, and with precipitable water
values around 1.5 to 1.6 inches, today shouldn`t be any different.
Severe weather threat remains minimal due to low shear values, but
cannot rule out some isolated funnels or land spouts similar to
yesterday, with the boundary overhead. Non-supercell tornado
parameter from the RAP model focuses on a couple areas, one along
the I-74 corridor just north of the main precipitation area, and
the other along I-72 near the boundary. Any such activity would be
most likely between noon and 4 pm.
The boundary will be pushed southward again tonight as an upper
high slides moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. As it will
not make it terribly far, the convection on Friday and Saturday will
be close by, but mostly out of our forecast area. Have maintained
some 20% PoP`s along the southern CWA border Friday afternoon, but
kept Saturday dry for now.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday:
Upper ridging breaks down during the weekend with more of a
southwest flow across the nation early next week, and the northern
jet stream along the Canadian border. Right now the ECMWF is the
odd model out in developing an upper low over the upper
Mississippi Valley which slowly drifts eastward through the Great
Lakes during the week, while the GFS, GEM and GFS ensembles have
more of periodic shortwave interaction between the two upper flows.
Sunday into early Monday are in most agreement with rain chances,
but trends widen after that. The ECMWF and the GEM to an extent
have the surface cyclone somewhat in agreement into Tuesday with
the cold front coming through, which would support the rain
chances continuing. Toward mid week, there is much more
uncertainty as the GFS never actually brings the front through and
holds it up near I-80, thus lingering rain chances, while the
ECMWF is dry. Have kept some PoP`s in for Wednesday for now, but
scaled them back from the initial blended guidance.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Wed May 28 2014
The potential for some MVFR fog will increase after 08z for PIA
and BMI as those terminal sites received the most rain today.
Also, their dew point spreads are beginning to fall. BMI is 5 deg
and PIA is still 7 deg, but upstream trends show potential for
fog. La Salle/Peru is down to 4SM BR already. The other TAF sites
did not see much in the way of rain today, so any vis reduction
from fog should generally remain VFR.
Convection is forecast to develop north of the front tomorrow,
mainly from late morning through late afternoon. Storms could
reach as far north as BMI, but higher potential should remain
south of I-72. We included VCTS for storms only at SPI and DEC,
with VCSH for showers at CMI and BMI. PIA was left dry as they
should be far enough north of the cold front with dry low levels
filtering into N IL under high pressure.
Winds will remain light from the E-NE the rest of tonight.
Thursday morning, wind directions should veer to the east-
southeast during the day, but return to E-NE after 00z/7pm Thur.
Speeds are expected to generally remain less than 10kt under a
weak surface pressure gradient and wind speeds aloft.
Shimon
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
206 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SLIP SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. WARM DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER THE REGION. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
1330Z UPDATE...FEW CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR MUCH DRIER TREND EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO DROP FOG FROM
FORECAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ANOTHER STICKY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SMALL PERSISTENT CELL NEAR KMIE WHICH WAS FINALLY WEAKENING. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OF 07Z WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE CATALYSTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SAME AS THEY
HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR KHUF SOUTHEAST TO KBMG
AND SEYMOUR IS THE WILDCARD TODAY...AS IT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCAL
POINT FOR STORMS TO FIRE ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT A WEAK AXIS OF
MID LEVEL FORCING ALIGNING NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH.
WHILE THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE FOUND PRIMARILY SOUTH
OF I-70...THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALL THE WAY NORTH TO A CRAWFORDSVILLE-NOBLESVILLE-
ANDERSON LINE. HRRR AND WRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BOTH SUPPORT THIS IDEA IN THE 18-21Z TIME PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING
STORMS SOUTH AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGELY DISORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FAVORED IN THE ABSENCE OF BL
SHEAR...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE PRIMARY
IMPACT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.
TEMPS...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS GET GOING...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR TEMPS TO OVERACHIEVE A BIT TODAY. WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE WARMER
MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ASSERTS CONTROL OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.
ANTICIPATE LINGERING CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS DIMINISHING
BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER WITH
COVERAGE SPARSE AT BEST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE
ROOT WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ESTABLISHING AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE HIGH WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A PREDOMINANT
DRY E/NE FLOW CONTINUES. ALL IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
WEEKEND FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS...DESPITE SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMPENSATE
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER
MAVMOS GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS. EXPECT LOWS INTO THE 50S IN SOME OF OUR
NORMAL COOL SPOTS BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE INDY METRO. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AT INDY FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT E/NE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
UNSETTLED...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT RIDGING SETTING UP ALOFT EAST OF
INDIANA...ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TO ARRIVE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. UPPER SUPPORT THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
UNORGANIZED AS A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO PUSH OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
QUITE LOW. HOWEVER GIVEN THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE...DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD DAILY CHANCES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291800Z IND TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA THAT DOES STRIKE A
TAF SITE. ALSO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
DIURNAL FOG.
WEAK...POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
REVEAL A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE TAF
SITES. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
USE VCTS TO COVER THIS FOR NOW...BUT WILL UPDATE TAFS QUICKLY IF A
STRIKE ON A TAF SITE APPEARS IMMINENT.
AFTER HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW DRYER AIR WORKING INTO THE STATE ON EASTERLY
WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SPOT THAT DOES
RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
PATCHY MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO GOOD LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
AMID DRY AIR ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE TOO WARM AND CU DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...SMF/RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1227 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SLIP SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. WARM DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER THE REGION. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
1330Z UPDATE...FEW CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR MUCH DRIER TREND EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO DROP FOG FROM
FORECAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ANOTHER STICKY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SMALL PERSISTENT CELL NEAR KMIE WHICH WAS FINALLY WEAKENING. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OF 07Z WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE CATALYSTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SAME AS THEY
HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR KHUF SOUTHEAST TO KBMG
AND SEYMOUR IS THE WILDCARD TODAY...AS IT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCAL
POINT FOR STORMS TO FIRE ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT A WEAK AXIS OF
MID LEVEL FORCING ALIGNING NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH.
WHILE THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE FOUND PRIMARILY SOUTH
OF I-70...THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALL THE WAY NORTH TO A CRAWFORDSVILLE-NOBLESVILLE-
ANDERSON LINE. HRRR AND WRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BOTH SUPPORT THIS IDEA IN THE 18-21Z TIME PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING
STORMS SOUTH AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGELY DISORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FAVORED IN THE ABSENCE OF BL
SHEAR...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE PRIMARY
IMPACT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.
TEMPS...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS GET GOING...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR TEMPS TO OVERACHIEVE A BIT TODAY. WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE WARMER
MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ASSERTS CONTROL OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.
ANTICIPATE LINGERING CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS DIMINISHING
BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER WITH
COVERAGE SPARSE AT BEST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE
ROOT WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ESTABLISHING AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE HIGH WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A PREDOMINANT
DRY E/NE FLOW CONTINUES. ALL IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
WEEKEND FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS...DESPITE SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMPENSATE
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER
MAVMOS GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS. EXPECT LOWS INTO THE 50S IN SOME OF OUR
NORMAL COOL SPOTS BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE INDY METRO. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AT INDY FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT E/NE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST AND WIND UP OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID AS THE GULF REMAINS OPEN. NO STRONG FEATURES
TO FOCUS ON SO STUCK WITH INITIALIZATION CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON. FOR SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL JUST BE STARTING
TO MOVE EAST AND THUS THINK PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA UNDER UPPER SUBSIDENCE. THUS WENT DRY FOR
SUNDAY MORNING AND BROUGHT IN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291800Z IND TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA THAT DOES STRIKE A
TAF SITE. ALSO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
DIURNAL FOG.
WEAK...POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
REVEAL A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE TAF
SITES. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
USE VCTS TO COVER THIS FOR NOW...BUT WILL UPDATE TAFS QUICKLY IF A
STRIKE ON A TAF SITE APPEARS IMMINENT.
AFTER HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW DRYER AIR WORKING INTO THE STATE ON EASTERLY
WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SPOT THAT DOES
RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
PATCHY MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO GOOD LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
AMID DRY AIR ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE TOO WARM AND CU DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...SMF/RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SLIP SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. WARM DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER THE REGION. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
1330Z UPDATE...FEW CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR MUCH DRIER TREND EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO DROP FOG FROM
FORECAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ANOTHER STICKY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SMALL PERSISTENT CELL NEAR KMIE WHICH WAS FINALLY WEAKENING. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OF 07Z WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE CATALYSTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SAME AS THEY
HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR KHUF SOUTHEAST TO KBMG
AND SEYMOUR IS THE WILDCARD TODAY...AS IT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCAL
POINT FOR STORMS TO FIRE ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT A WEAK AXIS OF
MID LEVEL FORCING ALIGNING NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH.
WHILE THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE FOUND PRIMARILY SOUTH
OF I-70...THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALL THE WAY NORTH TO A CRAWFORDSVILLE-NOBLESVILLE-
ANDERSON LINE. HRRR AND WRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BOTH SUPPORT THIS IDEA IN THE 18-21Z TIME PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING
STORMS SOUTH AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGELY DISORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FAVORED IN THE ABSENCE OF BL
SHEAR...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE PRIMARY
IMPACT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.
TEMPS...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS GET GOING...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR TEMPS TO OVERACHIEVE A BIT TODAY. WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE WARMER
MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ASSERTS CONTROL OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.
ANTICIPATE LINGERING CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS DIMINISHING
BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER WITH
COVERAGE SPARSE AT BEST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE
ROOT WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ESTABLISHING AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE HIGH WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A PREDOMINANT
DRY E/NE FLOW CONTINUES. ALL IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
WEEKEND FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS...DESPITE SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMPENSATE
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER
MAVMOS GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS. EXPECT LOWS INTO THE 50S IN SOME OF OUR
NORMAL COOL SPOTS BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE INDY METRO. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AT INDY FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT E/NE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST AND WIND UP OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID AS THE GULF REMAINS OPEN. NO STRONG FEATURES
TO FOCUS ON SO STUCK WITH INITIALIZATION CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON. FOR SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL JUST BE STARTING
TO MOVE EAST AND THUS THINK PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA UNDER UPPER SUBSIDENCE. THUS WENT DRY FOR
SUNDAY MORNING AND BROUGHT IN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ONGOING TAF IS GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S SHOULD BE EASILY REACHED LATE
THIS MORNING AND CU DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN. HRRR CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE I-70
CORRIDOR...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE USE OF VCTS FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
/DISCUSSION FOR 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
COULD HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF MVFR FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES. AT KLAF
SHOULD SEE IFR CEILINGS STICK AROUND FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE IT
MIXES UP AND SCATTERS OUT. AFTER THAT WILL SEE SOME CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL BUT KLAF WITH
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
INDIANA. HRRR AND RAP SHOW QPF DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70
STARTING AFTER 18Z OR SO AND LASTING THROUGH AROUND 1Z AND INCLUDED
VCTS DURING THIS TIME. COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY
CEILINGS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS LESS THAN
10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...SMF/RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
940 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SLIP SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. WARM DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER THE REGION. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
1330Z UPDATE...FEW CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR MUCH DRIER TREND EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO DROP FOG FROM
FORECAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ANOTHER STICKY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SMALL PERSISTENT CELL NEAR KMIE WHICH WAS FINALLY WEAKENING. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OF 07Z WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE CATALYSTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SAME AS THEY
HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR KHUF SOUTHEAST TO KBMG
AND SEYMOUR IS THE WILDCARD TODAY...AS IT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCAL
POINT FOR STORMS TO FIRE ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT A WEAK AXIS OF
MID LEVEL FORCING ALIGNING NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH.
WHILE THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE FOUND PRIMARILY SOUTH
OF I-70...THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALL THE WAY NORTH TO A CRAWFORDSVILLE-NOBLESVILLE-
ANDERSON LINE. HRRR AND WRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BOTH SUPPORT THIS IDEA IN THE 18-21Z TIME PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING
STORMS SOUTH AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGELY DISORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FAVORED IN THE ABSENCE OF BL
SHEAR...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE PRIMARY
IMPACT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.
TEMPS...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS GET GOING...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR TEMPS TO OVERACHIEVE A BIT TODAY. WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE WARMER
MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ASSERTS CONTROL OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.
ANTICIPATE LINGERING CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS DIMINISHING
BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER WITH
COVERAGE SPARSE AT BEST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE
ROOT WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ESTABLISHING AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE HIGH WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A PREDOMINANT
DRY E/NE FLOW CONTINUES. ALL IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
WEEKEND FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS...DESPITE SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMPENSATE
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER
MAVMOS GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS. EXPECT LOWS INTO THE 50S IN SOME OF OUR
NORMAL COOL SPOTS BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE INDY METRO. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AT INDY FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT E/NE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST AND WIND UP OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID AS THE GULF REMAINS OPEN. NO STRONG FEATURES
TO FOCUS ON SO STUCK WITH INITIALIZATION CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON. FOR SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL JUST BE STARTING
TO MOVE EAST AND THUS THINK PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA UNDER UPPER SUBSIDENCE. THUS WENT DRY FOR
SUNDAY MORNING AND BROUGHT IN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
COULD HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF MVFR FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES. AT KLAF
SHOULD SEE IFR CEILINGS STICK AROUND FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE IT
MIXES UP AND SCATTERS OUT. AFTER THAT WILL SEE SOME CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL BUT KLAF WITH
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
INDIANA. HRRR AND RAP SHOW QPF DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70
STARTING AFTER 18Z OR SO AND LASTING THROUGH AROUND 1Z AND INCLUDED
VCTS DURING THIS TIME. COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY
CEILINGS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS LESS THAN
10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...SMF/RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
653 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SLIP SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. WARM DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER THE REGION. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
ANOTHER STICKY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SMALL PERSISTENT CELL NEAR KMIE WHICH WAS FINALLY WEAKENING. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OF 07Z WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE CATALYSTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SAME AS THEY
HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR KHUF SOUTHEAST TO KBMG
AND SEYMOUR IS THE WILDCARD TODAY...AS IT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCAL
POINT FOR STORMS TO FIRE ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT A WEAK AXIS OF
MID LEVEL FORCING ALIGNING NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH.
WHILE THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE FOUND PRIMARILY SOUTH
OF I-70...THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALL THE WAY NORTH TO A CRAWFORDSVILLE-NOBLESVILLE-
ANDERSON LINE. HRRR AND WRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BOTH SUPPORT THIS IDEA IN THE 18-21Z TIME PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING
STORMS SOUTH AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGELY DISORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FAVORED IN THE ABSENCE OF BL
SHEAR...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE PRIMARY
IMPACT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.
TEMPS...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS GET GOING...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR TEMPS TO OVERACHIEVE A BIT TODAY. WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE WARMER
MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ASSERTS CONTROL OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.
ANTICIPATE LINGERING CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS DIMINISHING
BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER WITH
COVERAGE SPARSE AT BEST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE
ROOT WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ESTABLISHING AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE HIGH WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A PREDOMINANT
DRY E/NE FLOW CONTINUES. ALL IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
WEEKEND FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS...DESPITE SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMPENSATE
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER
MAVMOS GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS. EXPECT LOWS INTO THE 50S IN SOME OF OUR
NORMAL COOL SPOTS BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE INDY METRO. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AT INDY FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT E/NE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST AND WIND UP OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID AS THE GULF REMAINS OPEN. NO STRONG FEATURES
TO FOCUS ON SO STUCK WITH INITIALIZATION CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON. FOR SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL JUST BE STARTING
TO MOVE EAST AND THUS THINK PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA UNDER UPPER SUBSIDENCE. THUS WENT DRY FOR
SUNDAY MORNING AND BROUGHT IN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
COULD HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF MVFR FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES. AT KLAF
SHOULD SEE IFR CEILINGS STICK AROUND FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE IT
MIXES UP AND SCATTERS OUT. AFTER THAT WILL SEE SOME CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL BUT KLAF WITH
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
INDIANA. HRRR AND RAP SHOW QPF DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70
STARTING AFTER 18Z OR SO AND LASTING THROUGH AROUND 1Z AND INCLUDED
VCTS DURING THIS TIME. COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY
CEILINGS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS LESS THAN
10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
435 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SLIP SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. WARM DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER THE REGION. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
ANOTHER STICKY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SMALL PERSISTENT CELL NEAR KMIE WHICH WAS FINALLY WEAKENING. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OF 07Z WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE CATALYSTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SAME AS THEY
HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR KHUF SOUTHEAST TO KBMG
AND SEYMOUR IS THE WILDCARD TODAY...AS IT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCAL
POINT FOR STORMS TO FIRE ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT A WEAK AXIS OF
MID LEVEL FORCING ALIGNING NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH.
WHILE THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE FOUND PRIMARILY SOUTH
OF I-70...THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALL THE WAY NORTH TO A CRAWFORDSVILLE-NOBLESVILLE-
ANDERSON LINE. HRRR AND WRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BOTH SUPPORT THIS IDEA IN THE 18-21Z TIME PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING
STORMS SOUTH AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGELY DISORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FAVORED IN THE ABSENCE OF BL
SHEAR...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE PRIMARY
IMPACT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.
TEMPS...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS GET GOING...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR TEMPS TO OVERACHIEVE A BIT TODAY. WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE WARMER
MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ASSERTS CONTROL OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.
ANTICIPATE LINGERING CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS DIMINISHING
BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER WITH
COVERAGE SPARSE AT BEST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE
ROOT WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ESTABLISHING AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE HIGH WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A PREDOMINANT
DRY E/NE FLOW CONTINUES. ALL IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
WEEKEND FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS...DESPITE SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMPENSATE
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER
MAVMOS GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS. EXPECT LOWS INTO THE 50S IN SOME OF OUR
NORMAL COOL SPOTS BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE INDY METRO. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AT INDY FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT E/NE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST AND WIND UP OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID AS THE GULF REMAINS OPEN. NO STRONG FEATURES
TO FOCUS ON SO STUCK WITH INITIALIZATION CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON. FOR SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL JUST BE STARTING
TO MOVE EAST AND THUS THINK PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA UNDER UPPER SUBSIDENCE. THUS WENT DRY FOR
SUNDAY MORNING AND BROUGHT IN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT ALL THE SITES STARTING AROUND 9-10Z AND
MIXING OUT BY 12-13Z. ALSO COULD SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KLAF BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING AREA OF LOW
CEILINGS NEAR KOKOMO ADVECTING WEST AND THIS COULD LAST THROUGH MID
MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
EVENING WITH CU AND AC. SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT LOW ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.
COLD FRONT SHOULD SINK SOUTH PAST BMG AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
STILL...WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SLIP SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. WARM DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER THE REGION. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
ANOTHER STICKY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SMALL PERSISTENT CELL NEAR KMIE WHICH WAS FINALLY WEAKENING. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OF 07Z WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE CATALYSTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SAME AS THEY
HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF
THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR KHUF SOUTHEAST TO KBMG
AND SEYMOUR IS THE WILDCARD TODAY...AS IT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCAL
POINT FOR STORMS TO FIRE ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT A WEAK AXIS OF
MID LEVEL FORCING ALIGNING NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH.
WHILE THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE FOUND PRIMARILY SOUTH
OF I-70...THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALL THE WAY NORTH TO A CRAWFORDSVILLE-NOBLESVILLE-
ANDERSON LINE. HRRR AND WRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BOTH SUPPORT THIS IDEA IN THE 18-21Z TIME PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING
STORMS SOUTH AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGELY DISORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN FAVORED IN THE ABSENCE OF BL
SHEAR...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE PRIMARY
IMPACT AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.
TEMPS...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS GET GOING...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR TEMPS TO OVERACHIEVE A BIT TODAY. WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE WARMER
MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ASSERTS CONTROL OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.
ANTICIPATE LINGERING CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS DIMINISHING
BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER WITH
COVERAGE SPARSE AT BEST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TAKE
ROOT WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ESTABLISHING AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE HIGH WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A PREDOMINANT
DRY E/NE FLOW CONTINUES. ALL IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
WEEKEND FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS...DESPITE SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMPENSATE
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER
MAVMOS GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS. EXPECT LOWS INTO THE 50S IN SOME OF OUR
NORMAL COOL SPOTS BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE INDY METRO. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AT INDY FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT E/NE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST AND WIND UP OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID AS THE GULF REMAINS OPEN. NO STRONG FEATURES
TO FOCUS ON SO STUCK WITH INITIALIZATION CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON. FOR SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL JUST BE STARTING
TO MOVE EAST AND THUS THINK PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA UNDER UPPER SUBSIDENCE. THUS WENT DRY FOR
SUNDAY MORNING AND BROUGHT IN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT IN ANY OF THE TAFS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
FOG AFTER 09Z...OTHER THAN THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING WITH CU AND AC.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF HUF AND IND AT ISSUANCE TIME
AND BMG LIKELY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. STILL...WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
200 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SAG INTO THE REGION TODAY
PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
LOOSELY DEFINED "COLD" FRONT...MORE ACCURATELY DESCRIBED AS A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WITH A MODEST MOISTURE/DENSITY
GRADIENT...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESS
TIME. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED...VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ALONG THIS
FRONT WITH JUST A VERY WEAK VORTICITY LOBE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING DRIVEN BY SUBTLE CONVERGENCE
ALONG OLD OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES IN A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EARLY DAY INSOLATION ALLOWED FOR A
DECENT RISE IN MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHILE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED AND STABLE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THEREFORE DEVELOPED IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA AS
EXPECTED. LACK OF APPRECIABLE SHEAR AND/OR CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSE/MULTICELLULAR MODE THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BUT
THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL THE MAIN THREAT WITH HIGH PW VALUES...WEAK FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT...AND MORE EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HRRR AND OTHER
HI-RES GUIDANCE HAVE HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO FAR
TODAY AND SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AND DRIFT SOUTH BY
AROUND 03Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND GRADUAL SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW MORNING IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT CHANCES ARE VERY
LOW. THERMAL PROFILES BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM
CURRENT VALUES AND EXPECT INCREASING SUN TO SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGHS NEAR 80F. DEWPOINTS WILL BE TOUCH LOWER THOUGH...TAKING THE
HUMIDITY DOWN A NOTCH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WILL START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TROF ALONG THE NOAM WEST COAST
EJECTS EASTWARD AND WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
EVOLUTION THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT A FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
THE CHALLENGE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z
GFS RUN. 12Z MODEL IS MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE GEM/ECMWF AND
UKMET - THE 06Z AS THE OUTLIER HAD THE LOW EJECTING FROM THE PLAINS
IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE MUCH TO FAST AND TOO FAR SOUTH.
REGARDLESS WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE AREA WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR...EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY FORECAST
AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST.
AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
PATCHY STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT TERMINALS...AND MAY SEE
SOME BUILD DOWN OF THIS STRATUS OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
TREND TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANY LINGERING
IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. DRY AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH WILL KEEP
FOCUS FOR ISOLD/SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1253 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...BUT CHANCES FOR
RAIN RETURN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 923 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS A SLOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR INTERSTATE 70. RAIN COOLED AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT
HAS RESULTED IN COOLER TEMPS...LOWER DEW POINTS AND MORE STABLE
AIR. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS REMAINED UNSTABLE AND SCT
SHRA/TSRA WERE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WITH HEATING WANING...ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HRRR AGREES. AS FOR TEMPS HAVE
TRENDED LOWS A BIT COOLER IN THE RAIN COOLED AIR MASS TO THE
NORTH...AND STUCK WARMER AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.
WITH FRONT IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY CONTINUED CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS...HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS WITH NO UPPER SUPPORT. TIMING OF
BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
BUILDS.
AS FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY SOUTH KEPT LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND INSTABILITY LOW ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY FOR DRY POPS.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD IN AND PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS.
GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE MAV MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MET LOOKS
A BIT COOL WITH NO GOOD SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA WHILE UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN STATES SPELLS WARM TEMPERATURES AND RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE AND HIGHER HUMIDITY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MEAN TIMING ISSUES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
HARD TO PINPOINT MOST LIKELY WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN. HAVE
THUS CARRIED CHANCE POPS FOR NEARLY ALL PERIODS STARTING SUNDAY
WHICH ACTUALLY TIES TO ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS OF SOME PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE DAY OR NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
DEWPOINTS STARTING SUNDAY EXPECT MAXS AND MINS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS WERE MADE...USING A MIX OF MOS DATA AND BLENDED
SETS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT PUT IN ANY OF THE TAFS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
FOG AFTER 09Z...OTHER THAN THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING WITH CU AND AC.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF HUF AND IND AT ISSUANCE TIME
AND BMG LIKELY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. STILL...WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...MK/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH
CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME INFERRED WEAK BOUNDARIES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEW POINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS WITH 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR...AND RAP TRENDS...THE CONVECTION FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH MORE NORTHERN PROGRESS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THUS AREAS
SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KSPI LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS.
AFTER SUNSET...THE REMAINING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY 10-11 PM
ALONG WITH THE REMAINING DIURNAL CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE QUIET AND DRY.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN INITIALLY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY MID DAY.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH SUNSET. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL ALLOW NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MOVING EAST.
IF CORRECT...THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WOULD ARRIVE IN THE AREA VERY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS IT
DISSIPATES. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS COMPLEX WOULD THEN
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT ON...
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. THE GFS KEEPS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
WEIGHING THE STRENGTHS/WEAKNESSES OF THE MODELS AND CONSIDERING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE...THE IDEA OF BRINGING IN A DRYING TREND
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DOES HAVE MERIT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS
EACH DAY. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE SUGGESTS A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH AN EAST/WEST BOUNDARY SETTING UP IN OR CLOSE TO THE
AREA. WILL IT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THE ENTIRE TIME. NO. EACH ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL DICTATE WHERE SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. SO...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ATTEMPTING TO PIN THEM DOWN IS NOT POSSIBLE
WHEN DEALING WITH NONLINEAR PROCESSES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
EASTERLY WINDS OFF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
FEEDING DRY AIR INTO NORTHWEST IL AND NEARBY AREAS OF NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA. THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL FOUND FROM WEST CENTRAL IL NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH
SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
IN THIS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1253 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. BASED ON SUGGESTED DATA AND RAP TRENDS...NEW DIURNAL
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIRD THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE GEM TRENDS ARE CORRECT...
CONVECTION MAY APPROACH I-80 BY LATE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
THE LOW STRATUS THAT ADVECTED IN FROM INDIANA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AREAS HAS DISSIPATED AS ARE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW NEW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
PAST HOUR FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BASED ON
CLOUD RATE GROWTH...NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING IN
ERNEST OVER THE NEXT 90 MINUTES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY
2 AM THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE NOT EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE IN HANDLING
THIS. THE MAIN IMPACT BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS AND OBSERVED DATA IS
THAT ACTUAL DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING FASTER AS THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE
DRY...AT LEAST AT SHALLOW LEVELS. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S ARE SPREADING WEST INTO THE CWA...AND SHOULD ESTABLISH AT LEAST
WIDESPREAD 50S BY SUNRISE IN ALL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FALLING...INTO THE MID 50S NORTHEAST ALREADY. THE SOUTHWEST...STILL
NEAR THE FRONT...REMAINS MILD AND MOIST BUT WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BY
SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
THE MODEL MOISTURE PROBLEM WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT TODAYS FORECAST. I
WILL KEEP OUR SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN SLIGHT/CHC POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTH TO AROUND ZERO NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 GOING TODAY AS DIURNAL
DRIVEN CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...I AM
FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS DUE TO THE DRY AIR INTRUSION BEING MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN MODELS HAVE. AGAIN...THIS SEEMS TO BE ONLY A SHALLOW
FEATURE...AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE PLENTY OF PATCHY MID CLOUDS AROUND
POST FRONTAL. THUS...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTH VS TOTALLY
REMOVING THEM. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REBOUND NICELY...TO THE
UPPER 70S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN
AT LOW LEVELS...AND CROPS NOT YET LARGE IN SIZE...WE SHOULD ONLY
REBOUND DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 57 TO 60 EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTH WERE
SOME MID 60S ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW CONTINUING...IT WILL BE ANOTHER GOOD
NIGHT TO LEAVE THE WINDOWS OPEN. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO THE
LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM EAST TO WEST. WE WILL MISS THIS WEATHER
ONCE THE TRUE HEAT OF SUMMER ARRIVES.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
SATURDAY ONWARD AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES EDGES EAST
AND THE UPPER RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A MORE ACTIVE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL CONTINUE TO
CHANNEL A DRY EASTERLY FLOW MAINTAINING LOW DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING...SUSPECT MODELS ARE OVERDONE WITH FORECAST DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTH...WHEN WIDESPREAD 50S AND
POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 40S WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THIS AIRMASS.
LARGELY BASED ON THESE SUSPICIOUS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND ASSOCIATED
HIGHER CAPES...MODELS BREAKOUT CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST MO...SE IA
AND W CENTRAL IL DURING THE DAY. CONSIDERING THIS BIAS ALONG WITH
THE LACK OF FOCUSING BOUNDARIES AND SUPPRESSION FROM THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POPS AND PROVIDE ONLY
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO A RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST AND NORTH TO
THE LOWER 60S SOUTH AND WEST.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH MORE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BEGINNING TO RETURN HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
TRIGGER FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST AND HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST THERMAL FIELDS INDICATE HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 80S.
SUNDAY ONWARD...THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST FLATTENS GIVING WAY TO
AN ACTIVE WAVE-TRAIN OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RETURNING GULF MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE 00Z MODEL RUN WAS
THE NOW OUTLIER ECMWF WITH ITS STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW ROLLING BY TO THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN CONTRAST TO THE
MORE CONSISTENT GFS...AND TO SOME EXTENT UKMET AND GEM THAT HAVE A
MUCH WEAKER INITIAL LOW/SHORTWAVE AND THEN A LINGERING FRONT OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WED. EITHER SCENARIO POINTS TOWARD HIGHER CONSENSUS
POPS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE WE HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ARE THEN CARRIED THROUGH MID WEEK LARGELY
BASED ON THE NON-ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WED. HIGHS ARE ADVERTISED IN THE 80S FOR MONDAY...THEN
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUE AND WED...WHERE CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES IS LOWER DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CRITICAL LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY. HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD MINS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/30 EXCEPT AROUND
SHRA/TSRA THAT MAY BRIEFLY CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. KBRL HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY A SHRA/TSRA. AFT 06Z/30
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST
FOR MVFR VSBYS/CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST IOWA WITH A
STRONGER UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
WERE ROTATING AROUND THE LOWS. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THAT WAS SLOWLY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN EASTERN
IOWA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS AS WEAK LOW NEAR KAWG WITH A BOUNDARY EASTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S FROM THE GULF
COAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEW POINTS IN THE
40S AND 50S WERE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
RECENT RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM ABOUT KAWG TO NEAR KPNT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE WEAK UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE QUAD CITIES...CONVECTION WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND SLOWLY NORTH EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
SEEN.
BY EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET CONVECTION WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH CONVECTION BECOMING VERY ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE EVENING THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR MAINTAINING ISOLATED CONVECTION PAST SUNSET.
AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH. ANY REMAINING RAIN
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSE TO THE FRONT.
THURSDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DRY.
NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-80. THIS NEW
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE BUT MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED BETWEEN KBRL AND KUIN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FEEDING DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS IN THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDING MOVE EAST ALLOWING MOIST RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP. FOR NOW WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISMS SHOWN IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A BETTER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST TROF IN PLACE AND A SERIES OF S/WS
EJECTING OUT OF THE TROF INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL SEND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVER ALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT HAVE DIFFERENT TAKES ON HANDLING THE
S/WS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE SURFACE FRONT. THE GFS BRINGS
OUT A MAIN S/W MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE
FRAGMENTED WITH THE S/WS AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY LATE TUESDAY. EITHER SOLUTION THOUGH SUPPORTS AN ACTIVE
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
DRIER AIR ON NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD LIMIT FOG TO VERY
PATCHY (2-6SM) NATURE AND MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA
WITHIN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
WED PM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP YET AGAIN THURSDAY PM
BUT MAINLY WELL SOUTH OF I-80 WITHIN RESIDUAL MOIST AXIS AND ATTENDANT
TO UPPER DISTURBANCE...WITH ANY ACTIVITY DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1206 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AR...TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY SWWD THRU
PERIOD. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND NORTH SIDE OF LOW WILL LIKELY
AFFECT SW AR TERMINALS OF KTXK AND KELD...AND KMLU...BY MID
AFTN...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. CONVECTION
MAY HOLD OFF CLOSER TO 30/00Z AT REMAINING TERMINAL SITES...AS
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OVHD. THIS AFTN...EXPECT HIGH MVFR TO LOW
VFR CIGS TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 30/04-07Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS
AND POSSIBLY PATCHY DENSE FOG AND IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS...CIRCULATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE./VII/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE AR THIS MORNING...WITH
THE SHORT TERM PROGS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW WOBBLING OVER
THIS AREA AND NE LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY RETROGRADING W
INTO SW AR/NW LA TONIGHT. A 40NM MILE WIDE BAND OF CONVECTION OVER
SCNTRL AND NE LA AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS NOT SHOWN ANY WWD BACKBUILDING
INTO THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA THIS MORNING...WITH THE HRRR AND
12Z NAM MAINTAINING THIS CONVECTION JUST E OF THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHUNTING IT E ACROSS THE MS RIVER.
HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES REVEAL TOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A MORE AGITATED CU FIELD NEAR/NW OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVER WCNTRL AR/SE OK. WITH ADDED HEATING...SHOULD SEE SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER THESE AREAS...WHICH WOULD
SHIFT SSW INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/NW LA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DID REDUCE POPS THIS MORNING AREAWIDE GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION
ATTM...AND ALSO TONED DOWN POPS SLIGHTLY /TO LIKELY/ ACROSS SCNTRL
AR/ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE OVER
MUCH OF E TX/WCNTRL LA...FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED
LOW. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING.
DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO
LOWER THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SW AR...AND ALSO RAISING THEM
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX WHICH ARE ALREADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S AS OF 1530Z. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 81 68 83 68 86 / 60 30 70 30 50
MLU 80 67 82 67 86 / 70 30 70 30 50
DEQ 79 67 83 67 85 / 60 30 70 30 40
TXK 80 67 83 67 86 / 60 40 70 40 50
ELD 78 67 83 66 86 / 70 40 60 30 50
TYR 84 68 83 68 85 / 40 20 60 40 30
GGG 82 68 83 68 86 / 40 30 60 40 30
LFK 84 68 83 69 86 / 30 30 60 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1100 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE AR THIS MORNING...WITH
THE SHORT TERM PROGS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW WOBBLING OVER
THIS AREA AND NE LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY RETROGRADING W
INTO SW AR/NW LA TONIGHT. A 40NM MILE WIDE BAND OF CONVECTION OVER
SCNTRL AND NE LA AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS NOT SHOWN ANY WWD BACKBUILDING
INTO THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA THIS MORNING...WITH THE HRRR AND
12Z NAM MAINTAINING THIS CONVECTION JUST E OF THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHUNTING IT E ACROSS THE MS RIVER.
HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES REVEAL TOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A MORE AGITATED CU FIELD NEAR/NW OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVER WCNTRL AR/SE OK. WITH ADDED HEATING...SHOULD SEE SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER THESE AREAS...WHICH WOULD
SHIFT SSW INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/NW LA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DID REDUCE POPS THIS MORNING AREAWIDE GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION
ATTM...AND ALSO TONED DOWN POPS SLIGHTLY /TO LIKELY/ ACROSS SCNTRL
AR/ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE OVER
MUCH OF E TX/WCNTRL LA...FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED
LOW. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING.
DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO
LOWER THEM A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SW AR...AND ALSO RAISING THEM
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX WHICH ARE ALREADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S AS OF 1530Z. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 81 68 83 68 86 / 60 30 70 30 50
MLU 80 67 82 67 86 / 70 30 70 30 50
DEQ 79 67 83 67 85 / 60 30 70 30 40
TXK 80 67 83 67 86 / 60 40 70 40 50
ELD 78 67 83 66 86 / 70 40 60 30 50
TYR 84 68 83 68 85 / 40 20 60 40 30
GGG 82 68 83 68 86 / 40 30 60 40 30
LFK 84 68 83 69 86 / 30 30 60 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1156 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
LIGHT EASTERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KTS BY MID MORNING. CLEAR SKIES WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
SHORT TERM... REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE IS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON THAT MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE LOWER MICHIGAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
WEAK BUT IS IN FULL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY SKY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
SETTLING OFF HIGHS AROUND 80. THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
SHORELINES WHERE COOLER READINGS WILL BE ENSURED BY THE LAKE BREEZE.
FARTHER INLAND...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
MODIFICATION BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAND AND WATER WHICH
REPRESENTS ABOUT THE ONLY OTHER NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE WEATHER WORTH
DISCUSSION. LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER INLAND AREAS WILL QUICKLY
FILL TOWARD SUNSET AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A NOTICEABLE INLAND RELEASE
OF THE LAKE BREEZE. IN THIS CASE...THE PROCESS WILL BE A HYBRID OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING LOSS AND THE BACKDOOR FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
ENTERS SE MICHIGAN LEAVING THE NET RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST A LIGHT/VARIABLE
SURFACE WIND BECOMING NE DURING THE EVENING AND THEN LINGERING
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THEN LOOK SOLID BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER (587 DAM AT 500 MB) OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TOMORROW. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TEMPER THE UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...AND DO NOT FORESEE TOMORROW BEING MUCH
WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 80 DEGREES/LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO HOLD AROUND 12 C. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO FURTHER
WARMING...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 15 C (PER 12Z UKMET WHICH LIES IN
BETWEEN THE COOLER NAM/WARMER GFS)...SUPPORTIVE OF MID
80S...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-23...FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE BACKED
SURFACE FLOW OFF THE COLD LAKES. GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS PW VALUES RISE TOWARD 1.75 INCHES. SOME UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/PV FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST LOOKS TO
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE INCREASING AND DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HELP OF A MODESTLY INCREASED NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ON MONDAY IN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT STRADDLED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS AND CORRESPONDING
INSTABILITY...AS MODELS SUGGESTING DEW PTS PUSHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. LOOKING AT HEAVY RAIN AS MAIN HAZARD...AS 0-6 KM SHEAR
IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH LATEST INDICATIONS ARE ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD FAVOR THE MORNING HOURS. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO
TAKE HOLD AS BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE THOUGH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES...SPELLING A RETURN OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
FLUCTUATE IN THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW AND STABLE CONDITIONS
SUSTAINED BY THE COLD WATER WILL LEAD TO VERY LITTLE FLOW. SOME
MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WIND DIRECTION
BECOMES SOUTHERLY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LEADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON MONDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
908 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.UPDATE...
WEAK VORTICITY MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE AREA TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A STABILIZING AIRMASS AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD WARMING CLOUD TOPS. ECHOES ON RADAR WERE
WEAKENING AS WELL. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z
AS CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. AFTER
06Z...A STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ID WILL REACH NW
MT...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NW FORECAST
AREA. KEPT SCATTERED POPS THERE AND WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT KEPT SCATTERED POPS OVER THE NE BIG
HORNS NEAR THE HIGHER MOISTURE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST LOWS LOOKED GOOD GIVEN
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WAS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.
UPPER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SAT BRINGING
INCREASING LIFT TO THE REGION. INCREASING 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL HELP FURTHER MOISTEN THE AIRMASS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH CAPES AND SUPPORTIVE VALUES OF BULK SHEAR
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
OUR REGION IS AT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO POSSIBLE. PLEASE TAKE NOTE AND BE PREPARED EVERYONE.
FOR TONIGHT...WEAK ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
COMBINED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. SHOULD SEE SOME
INITIATION OVER OUR SOUTHERN MTNS BEFORE THE END OF THE AFTN...AND
AS OF 21Z THERE IS A TSTM NEAR CODY. OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS FAR
SE MT AS REMNANT PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT. THOUGH
GREATEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE SHOULD
STAY TO OUR SOUTHEAST...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS INTO CARTER COUNTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO...ONSET OF MODEST SELY LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS COMING OFF
THE MTNS INTO OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS ONCE WE GET TO SUNSET AND
BEYOND. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING.
TSTMS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE.
ON SATURDAY...INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WX EPISODE...WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT PER
APPROACHING PAC TROF...A RAPID MOISTENING OF OUR AIRMASS AS WE TAP
INTO NEAR 1 INCH PWAT AIR POOLED JUST TO OUR SE...AND VERY
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.
DEWPTS INTO THE 50S AND REASONABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST AN
ISOLD TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF BILLINGS AS SFC
LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WY. SREF SEVERE PARAMETERS
CONTINUE TO PEG OUR REGION FOR SEVERE WX TOMORROW...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
A FEW DETAILS TO WORK OUT. SYNOPTIC ASCENT BY 12-18Z TOMORROW IN
OUR WEST SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY...AND
WITH ENOUGH COVERAGE THIS COULD MUDDLE UP THE AIRMASS TO OUR WEST.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR OUR CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE WE
SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION...AND LATEST GFS/NAM
SHOWS A BREAKING OF THE CAP IN THE BILLINGS AREA BY 2-3PM...WHICH
IS STILL A LITTLE ON THE EARLY SIDE. PER THE LONG DURATION OF
ASCENT WE COULD SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ROLL THROUGH.
PLEASE BE READY FOR DANGEROUS WX TOMORROW FOLKS.
UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT WITH COOLER AIR AND LESS
INSTABILITY SO DO NOT SEE A SEVERE RISK FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
EXCEPTION COULD BE IN OUR FAR EAST WHERE HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
RESIDE NEAR SFC TROF. THIS COULD BE IMPACTED BY HOW CONVECTION
EVOLVES SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY NOT BE SEVERE...WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF 3.5-5.5KFT UNDER THE UPPER TROF
SUGGEST SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS TO OUR WEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TOMORROW THEN MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY. A COOLER NIGHT COMING SUNDAY NIGHT AS PCPN TAPERS OFF
AND SFC RIDGE SETTLES IN.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH PERIODIC PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL IN PART DUE
TO WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
MONDAY CONTINUES THE COOL...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...AND WET
TREND AS AN UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE CIRCULATING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. DRIER AIR
ALOFT DOES START TO GET PULLED INTO THE WEST...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT INCREASED SUNSHINE
SHOULD TRIGGER DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER...AND DID RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. ANOTHER UPPER
TROF APPEARS TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER IMPROVED CHANCE OF EXTENSIVE PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE PATTERN TURNS SOMEWHAT DRIER AND ZONAL BY THURSDAY. AIRMASS
SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE...BRINGING CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAK ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SPREAD
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND IN FAR SE MT...WITH OCCASIONAL MTN OBSCURATIONS. ON
SATURDAY...OUR REGION IS AT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALL TAF
SITES COULD BE IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS AFTER 18Z.
JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/075 056/069 048/068 049/075 054/074 052/076 053/073
26/T 67/T 45/T 53/T 55/T 32/T 23/T
LVM 046/074 048/069 043/067 044/074 046/071 044/074 044/073
26/T 56/T 55/T 53/T 44/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 051/078 056/070 047/069 048/077 053/077 051/078 052/074
26/T 67/T 45/T 53/T 55/T 32/T 23/T
MLS 054/079 058/072 051/069 049/075 054/075 055/077 054/072
25/T 76/T 55/T 43/T 44/T 33/T 33/T
4BQ 054/080 058/072 050/070 050/075 053/075 054/077 053/073
24/T 66/T 45/T 43/T 55/T 44/T 43/T
BHK 051/076 056/071 050/067 048/072 051/072 052/074 052/070
23/T 77/T 55/T 43/T 34/T 43/T 33/T
SHR 048/080 052/071 046/069 045/075 048/072 048/073 049/072
26/T 66/T 35/T 54/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1223 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE UNDERNEATH A LARGE 500HPA RIDGE AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING TROUGH AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT HAS MOVED INTO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXISTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED IN
SOUTHERN COLORADO COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE PROVIDING
HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE HRRR MODEL HAS
BEEN HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS AND A CUMULUS FIELD
SHOWED UP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MANY
LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BASED ON THE
28/12Z KLBF RAOB. ANY THUNDERSTORM SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND THURSDAY HIGHS LOOKED GOOD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONLY CHANGES
WERE DROPPED A DEGREE OR SO TONIGHT BASED ON GUIDANCE AND THE DEW
POINT FORECAST...AND RAISED A DEGREE THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED SUNSHINE
AND SOUTH WINDS. MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS REACH THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA AND EASTERN
TEXAS WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE GENERAL FLOW AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
UNDER THE RIDGE WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z FRIDAY. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS A STRONG TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL BRING STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A
MULTITUDE OF WEAK BOUTS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE GENERAL
PATTERN...THERE IS SOME DISCONTINUITY ON THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVES AS WELL AS THE MOVEMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OUT WEST
INTO NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...USED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE ISN/T REAL HIGH ON
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
STARTING THURSDAY EVENING...RIDGING IS STILL WELL IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE MAY JUST SKIRT THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO LIMITED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PORTIONS OF
SHERIDAN COUNTY.
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
CONFINED TO AREAS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY THE PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AS
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
COLORADO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ALONG WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AND A FOCUS OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER INTO THE EVENING
WHICH WILL THEN SUPPORT STORMS TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN
TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION.
ON SATURDAY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER
IT DOESN/T LOOK TO PROGRESS VERY FAR EAST. EXPECTING TO GET
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY COULD GET STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR TO GET STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
BEYOND SATURDAY IS WHEN THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BECOME MORE APPARENT. SO THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ANY DAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE DECENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEER EACH DAY...THERE ISN/T A PERIOD
THAT LOOKS BETTER THAN OTHERS TO HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ON SATURDAY...THE NORTHWEST MAY BE A BIT
COOLER IN THE 70S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT
AREA...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 80S. THEN
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AS
SHOWERS/STORMS/CLOUDS WILL PLAGUE MUCH OF THE AREA KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. AS FOR LOWS...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 60S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
TOO FAR AND WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AT THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AON 8000 FT AGL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY EVENING. ON
THURSDAY...WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS
APPG 25 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT THE KVTN TERMINAL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
139 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY...CREATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM THURSDAY...FIRST SHOWERS OF THE DAY BREAKING OUT
RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. NO LIGHTNING THUS FAR...BUT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SHORTLY. BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS AND SPC
DISCUSSION LOOKS LIKE SEVERE POTENTIAL A BIT LESS THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WE STILL CANNOT RULE IT OUT. ATMOSPHERE MAY
TREND MORE TOWARDS THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE CATEGORY THAN THE
STRONGLY UNSTABLE. HAVE TONED BACK SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES
WITH THE LATEST ISSUANCE...OTHERWISE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH
LITTLE CHANGE. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR
NC COUNTIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST DATA CONFIRM A MODERATELY
TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS TODAY WITH WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR AND A BOUNDARY-RICH ENVIRONMENT. ALSO...A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO STEADILY ADVANCE SOUTH AND IS NOW ENTERING PENDER
COUNTY. THIS CONFIRMS EARLIER PROGNOSIS...SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW...OF A CONVECTIVE-LY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION BRINGING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST HRRR DATA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FIRE UP IN THE 1 TO 2 PM TIME-FRAME.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH EAST-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WILL REACH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY NOON...SLOWING AND
PRACTICALLY STALLING AS SUCH FRONTS OFTEN DO DURING INTENSE SOLAR
HEATING. THIS FRONT IS A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/SC STATE
LINE. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATED FROM A LARGE CLUSTER OF
OVERNIGHT STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE BOUNDARY WAS
EARLIER VISIBLE ON RADAR LOOPS AND ALTHOUGH IS DIFFICULT TO FIND
NOW...IT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME VISIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
STORMS BEGIN TO FIRE.
THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE RISING TO 2000-3000 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES FALLING TO NEAR -7. SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE
ADDITION OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHOULD GIVE PLENTY OF POTENTIAL TRIGGERS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
LAPSE RATES WILL BE PARTICULARLY STEEP UP THROUGH 650 MB...INDUCING
LARGE INITIAL PARCEL ACCELERATION AND A RAPID ERUPTION OF STORMS
ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. FORECAST POPS TODAY RANGE
FROM 70 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SE NORTH CAROLINA TO 40 PERCENT
ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER...GRADUALLY TAPERING DOWN LATE THIS EVENING
AS CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING STABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE EXCEEDINGLY WEAK TODAY...5-8 KT AT
850 MB...5-10 KT AT 500 MB...AND AROUND 10 KT AT 300 MB. THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE SINGLE-CELL STORMS WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION. STORMS
WILL CHOKE ON THEIR OWN COLD OUTFLOW BUT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD
EASILY CREATE A NUMBER OF NEW CELLS. VERY SLOW CELL MOTION WILL
PRODUCE A PATCHWORK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...POSSIBLY 2-3
INCHES IN ISOLATED SPOTS...INTERSPERSED WITH LIGHTER TOTALS. HIGH
WINDS FROM WET MICRO BURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH A POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED HAIL AS WELL. THESE STORMS COULD ALSO
BECOME VERY PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS SINCE THEORETICAL
PARCEL-MINUS-ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGE (6-8 DEGREES C) UP THROUGH THE -10 TO -30C LAYER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
TODAY...WARMEST ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...INTERESTING PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM...AS
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED 5H FLOW FORCES SYSTEMS TO RETROGRADE ALOFT.
TWO LARGE UPPER LOWS...ONE NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION...AND ANOTHER RE-STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL
CONTINUE THEIR LOCAL INFLUENCES INTO THE WKND...WITH THE CAROLINAS
REMAINING SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO. ATOP THE ARKLATEX LOW...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BLOSSOMING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FORCED SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS IT...ALMOST
LITERALLY...GETS SQUEEZED OUT BY THE NORTHEAST TROUGH...FORCING THE
ARKLATEX LOW TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY...DROPPING SOUTH LATE SATURDAY...AS ITS MOTION GETS BOTH
ASSISTED (BY NORTHEAST TROUGH) AND IMPEDED (BY UPPER
RIDGE)...CAUSING ITS SLOW PROGRESSION. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY...AND THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TEMPS
AS WELL.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MORE ACTIVE...AND WARMER DAY OF THE SHORT
TERM. FRONT WILL BE ROUGHLY BISECTING THE CWA...ALIGNED EAST TO WEST
NEAR THE SC/NC LINE...FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT THAN THAT AHEAD OF
IT...SO WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE IN THE SOUTH...STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S NORTH...MID/UPR 80S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES...LOW/MID 60S...HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ON
FRIDAY...AS EVIDENCED BY A LARGE SWATH OF 90% 12-HR SREF PROBS FOR
0.01 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST PROBS ARE ACROSS SC...BUT
THE ENTIRE CWA IS LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. SBCAPE VALUES
RISE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT RAPIDLY FALL OFF
BEHIND IT. A SIMILAR PWAT GRADIENT EXISTS AS WELL...FROM ABOUT 1.9
INCHES WELL SOUTH...TO 1.3 INCHES FAR NORTH...IN A COLUMN
CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 10 KFT OF WARM CLOUD DEPTH. THIS SETUP
SUPPORTS VERY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...AS EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES ARE LIKELY DUE TO MODERATELY STRONG UPDRAFTS INTO A DEEPLY
SATURATED COLUMN. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...CREATING LOW NORMALIZED-CAPE VALUES...THIS HAS BEEN
SHOWN TO FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND THUS HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NOTING
THE ADDED CAVEAT OF SLOW STORM MOTIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE DOWN WITHIN THE NW
FLOW...MOVING ATOP THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTN...WHICH WILL
ONLY ACT TO ENHANCE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS
SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA...AND HIGHEST POP...LIKELY...WILL BE SHOWN
THERE...TRENDING DOWN TO CHC IN THE NORTH. WITH THIS SETUP IN
PLACE...AND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE WET AS WELL...LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY.
A QUIETER DAY SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL SLOWLY SINKING
SOUTH...SOME DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE PEE DEE REGION AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER. PROFILES SHOW PRETTY QUICK DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...SO BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE EARLY IN THE
AFTN...WITH POP DROPPING TO SILENT BY THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW/MID 80S AREA-WIDE
WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY FALLING BELOW 60 IN THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...BEFORE FLATTENING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE LATE
IN THE EXTENDED. THIS PATTERN PRODUCES MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS SUN/MON AND WITH MUCH
DECREASED HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS NEXT
WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE
WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS TUE/WED. WHILE TEMPS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LIKE WE SAW
FREQUENTLY IN MAY...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DIURNAL TSTM
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG/REDUCED VSBYS IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS MVFR FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING FEW/SCT/BKN CLOUD
HEIGHTS...LOW TO HIGH LEVEL AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA
TODAY...AND WITH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. REDUCED RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR PATCHY FOG. WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BUT OVERALL WINDS
WILL BE AOB 10 KTS. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY...POSSIBLY
CREATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MORNING. BY FRIDAY
MORNING...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT NOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR
NC WATERS WITH WINDS TURNING NE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. NO CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:
A COLD FRONT RECENTLY MOVED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND SHOULD REACH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTH OF CAPE FEAR BEFORE NOON. THE
FRONT SHOULD THEN STALL AND TEMPORARILY BECOME DIFFUSE WITH THE
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
VARIETY OF WIND DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS: MAINLY
NORTHEAST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND MAINLY SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR...BUT WITH THE SEABREEZE DETERMINING THE EVENTUAL DIRECTION.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT MEANS MOST OF THESE STORM CELLS WILL
REMAIN INLAND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SEABREEZE...HOWEVER A FEW
COULD DRIFT OUT PAST THE BEACHES INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. ANY
STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A GOOD DEAL OF
LIGHTNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE MYRTLE BEACH/MURRELLS INLET
AREA OVERNIGHT. AS INLAND THUNDERSTORMS DIE DOWN DURING THE EVENING
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE CONVECTIVE RISK COULD SHIFT OFFSHORE.
SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OBVIOUSLY NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WINDS AND SEAS COULD TEMPORARILY BUILD QUITE A BIT
HIGHER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT WILL TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON FRIDAY...FROM THE NE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
FRONT...AND THE S/SE TO THE SOUTH. BY SATURDAY...ALL WINDS WILL
BECOME N/NE WITH A WEAK SURGE CAUSING AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO 10-15
KTS. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY 1-2 FT...BUT WILL START TO RISE
TOWARDS 3 FT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NC WATERS. SATURDAY SEAS WILL
BE DRIVEN BY THE ENHANCED NE WINDS...BECOMING 2-4 FT ALL WATERS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST WILL
DRIVE A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY...WITH NE WINDS
OF AROUND 15 KTS COMMON THROUGH THE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN
ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE
MONDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER SLOWLY...TO THE SW AT 5-10
KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
WITH A NE WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO 2-3 FT MONDAY AS THE WINDS EASE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA/JDW
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1019 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY...CREATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:20 AM THURSDAY...ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST
DATA CONFIRM A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS
TODAY WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND A BOUNDARY-RICH ENVIRONMENT.
ALSO...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO STEADILY ADVANCE SOUTH AND IS NOW
ENTERING PENDER COUNTY. THIS CONFIRMS EARLIER PROGNOSIS...SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW...OF A CONVECTIVE-LY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION BRINGING THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST HRRR DATA AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FIRE UP IN THE 1 TO
2 PM TIME-FRAME. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW:
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH EAST-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WILL REACH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY NOON...SLOWING AND
PRACTICALLY STALLING AS SUCH FRONTS OFTEN DO DURING INTENSE SOLAR
HEATING. THIS FRONT IS A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/SC STATE
LINE. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATED FROM A LARGE CLUSTER OF
OVERNIGHT STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE BOUNDARY WAS
EARLIER VISIBLE ON RADAR LOOPS AND ALTHOUGH IS DIFFICULT TO FIND
NOW...IT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME VISIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
STORMS BEGIN TO FIRE.
THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE RISING TO 2000-3000 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES FALLING TO NEAR -7. SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE
ADDITION OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHOULD GIVE PLENTY OF POTENTIAL TRIGGERS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
LAPSE RATES WILL BE PARTICULARLY STEEP UP THROUGH 650 MB...INDUCING
LARGE INITIAL PARCEL ACCELERATION AND A RAPID ERUPTION OF STORMS
ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. FORECAST POPS TODAY RANGE
FROM 70 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SE NORTH CAROLINA TO 40 PERCENT
ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER...GRADUALLY TAPERING DOWN LATE THIS EVENING
AS CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING STABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE EXCEEDINGLY WEAK TODAY...5-8 KT AT
850 MB...5-10 KT AT 500 MB...AND AROUND 10 KT AT 300 MB. THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE SINGLE-CELL STORMS WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION. STORMS
WILL CHOKE ON THEIR OWN COLD OUTFLOW BUT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD
EASILY CREATE A NUMBER OF NEW CELLS. VERY SLOW CELL MOTION WILL
PRODUCE A PATCHWORK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...POSSIBLY 2-3
INCHES IN ISOLATED SPOTS...INTERSPERSED WITH LIGHTER TOTALS. HIGH
WINDS FROM WET MICRO BURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH A POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED HAIL AS WELL. THESE STORMS COULD ALSO
BECOME VERY PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS SINCE THEORETICAL
PARCEL-MINUS-ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGE (6-8 DEGREES C) UP THROUGH THE -10 TO -30C LAYER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
TODAY...WARMEST ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...INTERESTING PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM...AS
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED 5H FLOW FORCES SYSTEMS TO RETROGRADE ALOFT.
TWO LARGE UPPER LOWS...ONE NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION...AND ANOTHER RE-STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL
CONTINUE THEIR LOCAL INFLUENCES INTO THE WKND...WITH THE CAROLINAS
REMAINING SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO. ATOP THE ARKLATEX LOW...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BLOSSOMING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FORCED SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS IT...ALMOST
LITERALLY...GETS SQUEEZED OUT BY THE NORTHEAST TROUGH...FORCING THE
ARKLATEX LOW TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY...DROPPING SOUTH LATE SATURDAY...AS ITS MOTION GETS BOTH
ASSISTED (BY NORTHEAST TROUGH) AND IMPEDED (BY UPPER
RIDGE)...CAUSING ITS SLOW PROGRESSION. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY...AND THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TEMPS
AS WELL.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MORE ACTIVE...AND WARMER DAY OF THE SHORT
TERM. FRONT WILL BE ROUGHLY BISECTING THE CWA...ALIGNED EAST TO WEST
NEAR THE SC/NC LINE...FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT THAN THAT AHEAD OF
IT...SO WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE IN THE SOUTH...STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S NORTH...MID/UPR 80S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES...LOW/MID 60S...HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ON
FRIDAY...AS EVIDENCED BY A LARGE SWATH OF 90% 12-HR SREF PROBS FOR
0.01 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST PROBS ARE ACROSS SC...BUT
THE ENTIRE CWA IS LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. SBCAPE VALUES
RISE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT RAPIDLY FALL OFF
BEHIND IT. A SIMILAR PWAT GRADIENT EXISTS AS WELL...FROM ABOUT 1.9
INCHES WELL SOUTH...TO 1.3 INCHES FAR NORTH...IN A COLUMN
CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 10 KFT OF WARM CLOUD DEPTH. THIS SETUP
SUPPORTS VERY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...AS EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES ARE LIKELY DUE TO MODERATELY STRONG UPDRAFTS INTO A DEEPLY
SATURATED COLUMN. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...CREATING LOW NORMALIZED-CAPE VALUES...THIS HAS BEEN
SHOWN TO FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND THUS HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NOTING
THE ADDED CAVEAT OF SLOW STORM MOTIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE DOWN WITHIN THE NW
FLOW...MOVING ATOP THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTN...WHICH WILL
ONLY ACT TO ENHANCE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS
SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA...AND HIGHEST POP...LIKELY...WILL BE SHOWN
THERE...TRENDING DOWN TO CHC IN THE NORTH. WITH THIS SETUP IN
PLACE...AND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE WET AS WELL...LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY.
A QUIETER DAY SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL SLOWLY SINKING
SOUTH...SOME DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE PEE DEE REGION AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER. PROFILES SHOW PRETTY QUICK DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...SO BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE EARLY IN THE
AFTN...WITH POP DROPPING TO SILENT BY THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW/MID 80S AREA-WIDE
WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY FALLING BELOW 60 IN THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...BEFORE FLATTENING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE LATE
IN THE EXTENDED. THIS PATTERN PRODUCES MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS SUN/MON AND WITH MUCH
DECREASED HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS NEXT
WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE
WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS TUE/WED. WHILE TEMPS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LIKE WE SAW
FREQUENTLY IN MAY...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DIURNAL TSTM
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MARGINAL MVFR DUE TO FOG
THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG/REDUCED VSBYS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT POSSIBLE AS WELL.
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MARGINAL MVFR DUE TO PATCHY FOG AT KILM ATTM. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA
TODAY...AND WITH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. REDUCED RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR PATCHY FOG. WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE AOB
10 KTS. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW CIGS AND
PATCHY FOG LIKELY...POSSIBLY CREATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:20 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
A COLD FRONT RECENTLY MOVED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND SHOULD REACH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTH OF CAPE FEAR BEFORE NOON. THE
FRONT SHOULD THEN STALL AND TEMPORARILY BECOME DIFFUSE WITH THE
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
VARIETY OF WIND DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS: MAINLY
NORTHEAST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND MAINLY SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR...BUT WITH THE SEABREEZE DETERMINING THE EVENTUAL DIRECTION.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT MEANS MOST OF THESE STORM CELLS WILL
REMAIN INLAND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SEABREEZE...HOWEVER A FEW
COULD DRIFT OUT PAST THE BEACHES INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. ANY
STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A GOOD DEAL OF
LIGHTNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE MYRTLE BEACH/MURRELLS INLET
AREA OVERNIGHT. AS INLAND THUNDERSTORMS DIE DOWN DURING THE EVENING
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE CONVECTIVE RISK COULD SHIFT OFFSHORE.
SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OBVIOUSLY NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WINDS AND SEAS COULD TEMPORARILY BUILD QUITE A BIT
HIGHER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT WILL TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON FRIDAY...FROM THE NE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
FRONT...AND THE S/SE TO THE SOUTH. BY SATURDAY...ALL WINDS WILL
BECOME N/NE WITH A WEAK SURGE CAUSING AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO 10-15
KTS. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY 1-2 FT...BUT WILL START TO RISE
TOWARDS 3 FT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NC WATERS. SATURDAY SEAS WILL
BE DRIVEN BY THE ENHANCED NE WINDS...BECOMING 2-4 FT ALL WATERS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST WILL
DRIVE A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY...WITH NE WINDS
OF AROUND 15 KTS COMMON THROUGH THE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN
ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE
MONDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER SLOWLY...TO THE SW AT 5-10
KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
WITH A NE WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO 2-3 FT MONDAY AS THE WINDS EASE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA/JDW
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
250 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY CHANGE THIS EVENING IS A REORIENTATION OF PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA TO INCREASE THEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
CWA AND DECREASE THEM ELSEWHERE. AS OF 9 PM THE BACKDOOR SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF CHI ACROSS FAR NRN IN/OH AND SW
PA/DC/DELMARVA. AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT WITHIN A REGIME OF MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK SHEAR... THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS NUMEROUS WEAK BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
ACROSS THE REGION... THE MOST PROFOUND OF WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM
WEST CENTRAL VA SE TO SE VA AND NE NC WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL PROPAGATING GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD... OUT AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. EARLIER HRRR RUNS
TODAY HAVE NOT DONE VERY WELL BUT THE LATEST HRRR RUN APPEARS TO BE
HANDLING THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR NNE WELL... AND IT PROGRESSES
THIS ACTIVITY SOUTHWARD AND SE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA... IN LINE
WITH EXTRAPOLATION OF EXISTING FEATURES. THE AIR MASS IN THIS REGION
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESOANALYSIS... AND WHILE CINH IS STARTING TO
CREEP UP... LAPSE RATES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH WITH REMAINING ELEVATED
CAPE TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT TRANSLATES INTO THE
CENTRAL NC. HAVE RAISED POPS TO SCATTERED FROM RALEIGH TO THE NORTH
AND EAST... PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT... WITH ISOLATED
POPS SURROUNDING THIS AREA... AND LITTLE TO NO POP OVER THE WRN AND
SW CWA. WITH A TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... EXPECT LOWS OF 66-
71. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING TOWARD CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH
WILL STALL OUT AROUND THE VA/NC BORDER. SURFACE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
THE HIGH TO THE NE AND LOW TO THE SW...AND THE RESULTANT MOISTURE
AND TEMPERATURE BOUNDARIES...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL OCCUR
AROUND/AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH PWATS IN THE 1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE. THUS...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO AND HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
BEING PUSHED EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. GOOD MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA (PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.25-1.75 INCHES... HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH) BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT... DECENT PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY (HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AND BEST DESTABILIZATION). TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD BRING CLEARING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS OCCURS AS
DRIER AIR IS DRIVEN INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF THE STRENGTHENING
(1030+ MB) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...
THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE TYPE COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW TO KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS NOTED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PAST FRI EVENING. WE WILL
MAINTAIN OUR ONGOING FORECAST OF MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SAT-
MON... EXCEPT VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY FAR WESTERN
PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE 50S NE TO NEAR 60 SW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HIGHS GENERALLY 78-83.
FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND... THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH OF AN INDICATION OF
A WIDESPREAD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
GRADUAL WARMING TO HOT BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS RETURN INTO THE 80S
(SOME LOWER 90S BY WED). LOWS INCREASE INTO THE 60S. THE ONLY
MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM SHOWERS/STORMS
WED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. IFR CEILINGS OBSERVED OVER
SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC AT 06Z ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN BY ~12Z...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE KRWI TERMINAL AROUND THAT TIME...SLOWLY LIFTING TO MVFR BY NOON.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE KRDU TERMINAL COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 12-16Z...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE INT/GSO/RDU/FAY
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NC. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
(TONIGHT) AT ALL TERMINALS.
LOOKING AHEAD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN MOST AREAS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN SAT-MON AS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
216 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY CHANGE THIS EVENING IS A REORIENTATION OF PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA TO INCREASE THEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
CWA AND DECREASE THEM ELSEWHERE. AS OF 9 PM THE BACKDOOR SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF CHI ACROSS FAR NRN IN/OH AND SW
PA/DC/DELMARVA. AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT WITHIN A REGIME OF MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK SHEAR... THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS NUMEROUS WEAK BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
ACROSS THE REGION... THE MOST PROFOUND OF WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM
WEST CENTRAL VA SE TO SE VA AND NE NC WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL PROPAGATING GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD... OUT AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. EARLIER HRRR RUNS
TODAY HAVE NOT DONE VERY WELL BUT THE LATEST HRRR RUN APPEARS TO BE
HANDLING THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR NNE WELL... AND IT PROGRESSES
THIS ACTIVITY SOUTHWARD AND SE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA... IN LINE
WITH EXTRAPOLATION OF EXISTING FEATURES. THE AIR MASS IN THIS REGION
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESOANALYSIS... AND WHILE CINH IS STARTING TO
CREEP UP... LAPSE RATES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH WITH REMAINING ELEVATED
CAPE TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT TRANSLATES INTO THE
CENTRAL NC. HAVE RAISED POPS TO SCATTERED FROM RALEIGH TO THE NORTH
AND EAST... PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT... WITH ISOLATED
POPS SURROUNDING THIS AREA... AND LITTLE TO NO POP OVER THE WRN AND
SW CWA. WITH A TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... EXPECT LOWS OF 66-
71. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING TOWARD CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH
WILL STALL OUT AROUND THE VA/NC BORDER. SURFACE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
THE HIGH TO THE NE AND LOW TO THE SW...AND THE RESULTANT MOISTURE
AND TEMPERATURE BOUNDARIES...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL OCCUR
AROUND/AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH PWATS IN THE 1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE. THUS...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO AND HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY...BEFORE BEING PUSHED EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. GOOD MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA (PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.25-1.75 INCHES...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH) BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT... DECENT PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN
OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY (HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND BEST DESTABILIZATION). TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THEN...FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1025 MB) WILL BUILD DOWN THE
EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH. THIS WILL VIRTUALLY BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIP CHANCES AS
STABLE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING THE AREA TO BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DIURNAL TYPE PRECIP RETURNING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES IN THE INCREASING RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING
NEXT WEEK TO BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. IFR CEILINGS OBSERVED OVER
SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC AT 06Z ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN BY ~12Z...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE KRWI TERMINAL AROUND THAT TIME...SLOWLY LIFTING TO MVFR BY NOON.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE KRDU TERMINAL COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 12-16Z...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE INT/GSO/RDU/FAY
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NC. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
(TONIGHT) AT ALL TERMINALS.
LOOKING AHEAD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN MOST AREAS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN SAT-MON AS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1220 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR TONIGHT IN THE WEST. AREA RADARS HAVE
SHOWN A DECREASING TREND IN THE STORM INTENSITY AS THE CONVECTION
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATER THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 CDT WED MAY 28 2014
QUICK UPDATE AGAIN TO BETTER REFLECT LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR
WEST...WHERE POPS WERE TOO LOW. MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS
PREVIOUSLY SHOWN AND CONTINUING TO WATCH CONVECTION IN EAST
CENTRAL MT WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED IN PAST HALF HOUR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
MAIN CHANGES WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. AS MENTIONED IN SPC MCD
ISSUED A FEW MINUTES AGO CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MONTANA IS
LESS ORGANIZED THAN THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE CHALLENGES WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION. HRRR INITIALIZED WELL WITH 01Z RUN...BUT APPEARS TO
OVERDUE EXPANSION OF CONVECTION IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RAP TIMING
APPEARS TO BE SLOWER AND MORE ACCURATE. BOTH MODELS HINT AT
STRONGER CLUSTER IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED POPS NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND MAINTAINED BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST ND. DID INTRODUCE SOME
POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST BASED ON WEAK RETURNS APPROACHING ON BOWMAN
RADAR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
MAIN UPDATE CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CURRENTLY
MOST OF MONTANA IS IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS STILL WELL WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA. ATMOSPHERE
STILL WELL CAPPED AND HI-RES MODELS /RAP AND HRRR/ ARE TOO FAR
EAST WITH CONVECTION COMPARED TO CURRENT RADAR. HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS FOR EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR
NEXT UPDATE. LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR KISN ALSO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL
CAP IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. 18Z NAM KEEPS CWA DRY OVERNIGHT
WHILE GFS SPREADS SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST BY 06Z.
ALSO UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHT TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEST WHICH WAS RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND THE EAST WHICH WAS A LITTLE WARMER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE DETERMINING THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...AND AGAIN
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS SERVING TO INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL JET
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED IS
INCREASING SURFACE-BASED CAPE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA/EASTERN
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME INITIATING AS MUCH COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE
OF AN MCV HAS GENERATED VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PER SPC
ANALYSIS). RAPID DESTABILIZATION WILL NEED TO OCCUR TO GET
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS A STRENGTHENING CAP OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG CIN GREATER THAN 500 J/KG DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
GREATEST DYNAMICS/SURFACE FORCING IS PROGGED TO SET UP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS EVENING. IF SAID CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...IT COULD DEVELOP ITS OWN COLD POOL AND ADVECT INTO THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. AS A
RESULT...INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TONIGHT...CONSISTENT WITH
SPC`S DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AREAWIDE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG...AND 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LINE COULD DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL
LINE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SFC TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND FORCING ADVERTISED. MODELS STILL PORTRAY STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH POOLING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. PW VALUES ARE
PROJECTED TO NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH GENERATING WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITH HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY LIKELY. SFC TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL EAST INTO THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEY REGIONS.
THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
LIKELY ALONG TO AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF ND FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND A STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CANADA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE STILL FORECAST
BY BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COOL
NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WYOMING EASTERLY INTO NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA. IDEAL
PLACEMENT FOR STRONG OVERRUNNING FLOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...SETTING US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS RESULTS IN MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SOME GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO CREEP
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH SO WILL NOT COMPLETELY
RULE THIS OUT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM MONTANA NORTHEASTWARD TO CANADA.
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST /KISN/
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SO FAR...MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE STAYED WEST OF KISN...SO WILL GO WITH SHOWERS FOR NOW AND
UPDATE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS IF NECESSARY. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KMOT/KDIK LATE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
OUT OF KISN FOR NOW SINCE IT APPEARS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MAY STAY
JUST EAST. DID INTRODUCE A PROB30 GROUP FOR KMOT/KDIK AS THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1023 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE
BY MIDWEEK...WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS STEADILY WANED ACRS THE FA EXCEPT
FOR A CLUSTER OF CELLS WHICH HAVE CONTINUED TO BUBBLE ALONG A LINE
FROM THE NW CORNER OF NC SEWD INTO THE PIEDMONT TRIAD. THIS SEEMS TO
BE THE FRONT...PER SFC OBS AND MSLP ANALYSIS. WHILE COVERAGE REMAINS
RATHER STEADY WITHIN THE CLUSTER...EACH NEW GENERATION APPEARS TO BE
WEAKER THAN THE LAST. HRRR NOW REDEVELOPS ACTIVITY OVER THE I-77
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NEW RUN JUST COMPLETED OF OUR LOCAL
WRF-ARW DROPS ACTIVITY STEADILY SWD THRU THE ERN HALF OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TMRW MRNG. THESE SCENARIOS ARE PLAUSIBLE THOUGH I
WONDER HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALLY LEFT GIVEN ALL THE ACTIVITY
EARLIER. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCHC OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
AS OF 230 PM FRI...ONE IS HARD-PRESSED TO IDENTIFY THE REMAINS OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE STRUNG OUT NW TO SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...SUCH THAT IT IS HARD TO SAY IF THIS FEATURE WILL
EVEN PLAY ANY ROLE IN ORGANIZING ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SUBTLE CHANGES ARE NOTED AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...WHILE THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY. THE MODELS
WANT TO KEEP SOME COVERAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE OWING TO
A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...SO THE FCST RETAINS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS DO A MORE CONCERTED EFFORT IN
IDENTIFYING A SW TO NE GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON
SATURDAY THAT REPRESENTS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME IDENTIFIABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER BETWEEN NE GEORGIA
AND WESTERN SC...WHICH SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY...TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC WHICH SHOULD HAVE A STRONGER NE WIND
ADVECTING COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION
AND KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM GA AND THE CAROLINAS...TO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SE TX...AND A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW WILL BE
WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER TX
FILLS...AND THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BEHIND IT. AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP MOIST
UPSLOPE LIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...SUPPORTING CONTINUING
PRECIPITATION THERE....WHILE LINGERING INSTABILITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF SUPPORTS PRECIPIATION IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER INTO GA ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
THE CAROLINAS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS WITH COOLER SURFACE
AIR MOVING IN.
MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...ALLOWING WARM MOIST ADVECTION FORM THE GULF TO
REACH NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
SPREAD EAST AS A RESULT...AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AS THE COOLER AIR MASS SETTLE
IN...UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN WARM ADVECTION ENSUES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
DEAMPLIFIED PATTERN...WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...
AND MOORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE REMNANTS
OF A COLD FRONT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTOLYTIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION LONG BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY LEAVES THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER DRYING BEHIND IT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER PERSISTING IN
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR MID SUMMER NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...TSTM THREAT THIS EVENING IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF...BUT A LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOES LIE VERY NEAR THE FIELD
ATTM AND A COUPLE OF BRIEF CELLS REGENERATING ALONG IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. ALSO...SEVERAL GUID MEMBERS DEVELOP SOME SHRA/TSRA N
OF THE FIELD IN THE WEE HRS SAT MRNG AS COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AMPLIFIES AND TAPS INTO REMAINING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THIS CHANCE IS LIKEWISE TOO LOW TO MENTION. SAID FRONT
LOOKS LIKELY TO BRING LOW MVFR CIGS TO THE FIELD BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...THIS BEING SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE. SOME FOG POSSIBLE
THOUGH THE DRY WEATHER TODAY SUGGESTS IT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE
SIGNIFICANT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THRU THE MRNG AS THE CIG MIXES
AND LIFTS. WINDS PREVAIL NE.
ELSEWHERE...LOW CIGS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT...MAKING
IT AS FAR AS THE BLUE RIDGE. ALL THE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
LOW MVFR OVERNIGHT PER GUID CONSENSUS. KHKY EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY GO
IFR CIG ALSO. HVY RA OCCURRED THIS AFTN AT ALL TAF SITES AND
THEREFORE FOG IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM. GUID SUGGESTS IFR LIKELY AT
ALL EXCEPT KAND. THE CIGS/FOG WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THRU THE MRNG
BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL BY AFTN. PROB30S INCLUDED FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...WHICH IN THE ELY FLOW WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL DRYING WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...
WITH MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT MED 67% HIGH 93% HIGH 96% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 93% HIGH 80% HIGH 93% HIGH 95%
KAVL HIGH 90% HIGH 84% HIGH 86% HIGH 97%
KHKY HIGH 83% MED 77% MED 75% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 79% MED 77% HIGH 82% HIGH 93%
KAND HIGH 89% MED 66% HIGH 83% HIGH 89%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM. CURRENT ACTIVITY IS MAINLY IN CLUSTERS
ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...PARTICULARLY ONE LINEAR CLUSTER
HAVING PROPAGATED IN THIS WAY OVER THE TUGALOO/SAVANNAH RIVERS.
ANOTHER CLUSTER IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BACKDOOR FRONT JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. IN GENERAL THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING A REASONABLY
GOOD JOB AND ALLOWS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN DIURNALLY OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE FA...BUT INCREASING COVERAGE OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IN THE FCST. STEERING
FLOW IS RATHER WEAK...SO STORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY. FLASH
FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AND
THE RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE. WE MAY SEE A FEW PULSE-TYPE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS BUOYANCY LOOKS SUFFICIENT AND GENERALLY CLIMBING UP
ABOVE 2000 J/KG...AND DCAPE HAS NOW BECOME INTERESTING /600-900 J/
SOUTH OF THE SRN NC BORDER.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE FRONTAL ZONE
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A SURFACE REFLECTION ALREADY SHOWS IN
THE CAPE ANALYSIS NUDGING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH LOW CLOUDINESS
AND STABLE AIR IN N CENTRAL NC. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THIS BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. THE MODELS DO NOT REALLY SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING BUT THIS COULD BE MASKED BY THE
DIURNAL CONVERGENCE TOWARD THE MTNS. IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WELL INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
OVER THE NC BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD ANCHOR
STORMS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONCERN TO ENTERTAIN A
WATCH. EXPECT A DIURNAL REDUCTION IN STORM COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN SPITE OF THE BOUNDARY...SO SOME OF THE LATEST SREF WAS BLENDED
INTO THE POP. ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP YET
AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT WE MIGHT BE COVERED WITH A
LOW CLOUD CEILING BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE THAT WILL CUT
DOWN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...ON FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW OVER LA AND
AND UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE RIDGE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...AND OVER GA ON SUNDAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS SC ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY VERY SLOWLY DECREASING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASING AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...MAINTAINING A THREAT OF CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. DRIER
AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WILL REDUCE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE MODEL SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE BANKED
UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL PERSIST...AND SMALL POPS
WILL BE CARRIED THERE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...UNTIL
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...ON MONDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
FL TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESS TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE
A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE PATTERN
DEAMPLIFIES BY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NATION...AND WEAK FLAT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST...A PATTERN
THAT PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE COASTAL VA AND NC ON
MONDAY...AND ALTHOUGH GULF INFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS...THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SUPPORTING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SE AND OFFSHORE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...GULF INFLOW WEAKENS...BUT SPREADS EAST...COVERING NE GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION REMAINING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...EVEN AS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES INCREASE TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM NEAR NORMAL VALUES...TO ABOVE NORMAL...
EVEN AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT...AS COOL NE FLOW VEERS TO THE SW...
AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE AROUND
045-050. KEPT THE LOW CLOUDS FEW OR SCT FOR THE INITIAL PERIOD BUT
THERE COULD EASILY BE A TEMPORARY CEILING AT THAT LEVEL. THIS
POSSIBILITY WAS LEFT OUT FOR BREVITY. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
ARE STILL GOING FOR A WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO THE TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT. THE STORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION. INCLUDING A MENTION OF VCSH FOR NOW BUT EXPECT A TEMPO TO BE
ADDED AGAIN AFTER THE FIRST TEMPO EXPIRES. FRONT WILL BRING AN MVFR
CEILING INTO THE PIEDMONT FOR THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE LOW
CLOUD CEILING SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. SOME
DETAIL WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL FOCUS
ALONG AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WITH TSRA CHANCES HIGHER
FROM KAVL TO KHKY THAN FARTHER S AT THE UPSTATE SC SITES. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS FROM KAVL TO NEAR KGSP. SFC WINDS
WILL ADJUST TO NRLY TO NELY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT TODAY AT
THE NC SITES...WHILE CONTINUED SW FLOW IS LIKELY AT THE UPSTATE
SITES BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL DRYING WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
DAY...WITH MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 92% MED 64% HIGH 86%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 45% HIGH 91%
KAVL HIGH 100% MED 71% HIGH 83% HIGH 86%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 77% MED 67% MED 68%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 56% HIGH 91%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 86% HIGH 91%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1226 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014/
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. LATEST HRRR SHOWS A BAND MOVING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA...AND
EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN 1-4 PM. WILL UPDATE
TO EXPAND 80 POPS NORTHWARD TO COVER THIS AREA. WILL ALSO UPDATE
TO LOWER TEMPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPDATE WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014/
CURRENT UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING THIS AS ITS CLOSEST POSITION TO THE MIDSOUTH
BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. ON THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE
BACKED TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AS AN INDUCED SURFACE LOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE SAME AREA. AS OF 3AM TEMPERATURES WERE BETWEEN
65F AND 70F...AND RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES.
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN INFLUENCED BY THE
CLOSED LOW WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE HEAT OF THE DAY...AND LESS COVERAGE AT NIGHT. AGREED MODEL
CONSISTENCY POINTS TO THE REGION SOUTH AND WEST OF MEMPHIS WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...WHERE A WEAK INDUCED
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE OVER THIS AREA...WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH AND HALF THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TOMORROW. THIS...IN
ADDITION TO THE ONGOING MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES OFF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. A FEW
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE LOW
CENTER MOVES TO NEAR LAKE SABINE IN WESTERN LOUISIANA. THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REBOUND BACK...AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL STILL RUN THE GREATEST RISK FOR RAIN.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED WITH THE FORECAST
THIS PERIOD...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS AND A DEGREE
COOLER IN TEMPERATURES. THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AS THE UPPER
LOW OPENS AND A WEAK SHEAR AXIS HANGS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SHIFT BACK CLOSER TO
90F...WHICH MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE MIDWEST WITH THE MIDSOUTH SHIFTING FROM
A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW TO MORE WESTERLY. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA FROM
FRONTAL MCS GENERATION IN THE MIDWEST...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
WEAK FRONT AND CONVECTIVE CONCENTRATION IN THE CORN BELT. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES MORE CONSERVATIVE AND DIURNAL. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR 90F FOR HIGHS AND 70F FOR LOWS...WITH A
SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE PROVIDING SOME RELIEF.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (29/18Z-30/18Z)
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AR WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
TO THE SW INTO NW LA-ERN TX BY 30/18Z AND CONTINUE UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THRU FRI. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR THRU THE PERIOD...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR TS IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. DID TAKE VCSH OUT OF MKL/TUP LATER TONIGHT
AS COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER FROM
THESE LOCATIONS. WINDS REMAIN ESE-SE THRU THE PERIOD...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO VFR BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CIG/VIS STILL POSS IN AREAS OF SHRA/TS. CIGS EXPECTED TO
AGAIN DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR POSS AT ALL LOCATIONS...BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 08-13Z.
BROUGHT BACK MENTION OF VCTS TOMORROW AT 17Z CONTINUING DIURNAL
TRENDS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NGU
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1029 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014
.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. LATEST HRRR SHOWS A BAND MOVING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA...AND
EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN 1-4 PM. WILL UPDATE
TO EXPAND 80 POPS NORTHWARD TO COVER THIS AREA. WILL ALSO UPDATE
TO LOWER TEMPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPDATE WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014/
CURRENT UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING THIS AS ITS CLOSEST POSITION TO THE MIDSOUTH
BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. ON THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE
BACKED TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AS AN INDUCED SURFACE LOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE SAME AREA. AS OF 3AM TEMPERATURES WERE BETWEEN
65F AND 70F...AND RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES.
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN INFLUENCED BY THE
CLOSED LOW WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE HEAT OF THE DAY...AND LESS COVERAGE AT NIGHT. AGREED MODEL
CONSISTENCY POINTS TO THE REGION SOUTH AND WEST OF MEMPHIS WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...WHERE A WEAK INDUCED
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE OVER THIS AREA...WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH AND HALF THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TOMORROW. THIS...IN
ADDITION TO THE ONGOING MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES OFF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. A FEW
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE LOW
CENTER MOVES TO NEAR LAKE SABINE IN WESTERN LOUISIANA. THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REBOUND BACK...AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL STILL RUN THE GREATEST RISK FOR RAIN.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED WITH THE FORECAST
THIS PERIOD...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS AND A DEGREE
COOLER IN TEMPERATURES. THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AS THE UPPER
LOW OPENS AND A WEAK SHEAR AXIS HANGS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SHIFT BACK CLOSER TO
90F...WHICH MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE MIDWEST WITH THE MIDSOUTH SHIFTING FROM
A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW TO MORE WESTERLY. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA FROM
FRONTAL MCS GENERATION IN THE MIDWEST...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
WEAK FRONT AND CONVECTIVE CONCENTRATION IN THE CORN BELT. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES MORE CONSERVATIVE AND DIURNAL. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR 90F FOR HIGHS AND 70F FOR LOWS...WITH A
SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE PROVIDING SOME RELIEF.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE (29/12Z-30/12Z)
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE MIDSOUTH WEATHER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY LASTING INTO
THIS EVENING. ALSO INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MAINLY MVFR BY 15Z THEN
PREDOMINATELY VFR BY 19Z OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN AFTER 30/05Z TO MVFR AND IFR. WINDS
TODAY BECOMING SE-S 8-11 KTS...DECREASING TONIGHT TO 3-7 KTS AND
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AT KJBR.
JCL
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1011 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
COOLER...MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM EDT FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS LATE THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION SLOWLY WEAKENS ACROSS NW NC AND GRAYSON/CARROLL COUNTY
AREAS OF SW VA. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IF ANY LTG DETECTED IN THESE
SHOWERS LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH ANYMORE...LESS THAN AN INCH
PER HOUR...BUT MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT SOME ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CONFINED TO WILKES AND YADKIN COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF ANY REMAINING
INSTABILITY...AND HRRR DEPICTS THIS IDEA BEST...ALTHOUGH SOME
OTHER MODELS HANG TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH ENTIRE NIGHT.
SLOWLY REDUCE POPS ALL NIGHT DOWN ION FAR SW WITH ONLY A SMALL
AREAS OF SLIGHT CHC BY MORNING BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPIRSED IF ALL
PRECIP IS GONE BY 2 OR 3AM.
BIG QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT IS AMOUNT OF STRATUS THAT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH THINK STRATUS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS PREVIOUS NIGHT AND PERHAPS LIMITED TO NEAR BLUE RIDGE AND NRV.
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON OVERALL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY FAR
WEST...BUT THINK VALLEY FOG WILL EVENTUALLY FORM AS WELL AS ALONG
BLUE RIDGE AND MUCH OF PIEDMONT AS WELL. NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR AND REDUCE SKY COVER
OVER SE WV PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. STILL EXPECTING LOW
CLOUDS TO FILL IN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND INTO ROA AND NRV AFTER
SUNSET...BUT MAY STAY RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE A LITTLE LONGER IN
FAR WEST. ISOLD SHWRS NORTH OF ROANOKE SHOULD QUICKLY DIE WITH
SUNSET...BUT SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER IN NW NC AND
AROUND GALAX TO HILLSVILLE MAY PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT SINCE
IN VICINITY OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MODELS SUGGEST WEAK
INSTABILITY LINGERS THERE INTO LATE EVENING. KEEPING ALL POPS
BELOW LIKELY BUT KEPT SOME MID CHANCE A LITTLE LONGER INTO
EVENING DOWN IN NC FOOTHILLS. SOME MINOR CONCERNS ABOUT HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THESE STORMS ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST BUT MAY
LINE UP MORE DURING EVENING. STILL...NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES...LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT IF THEY LINGER OVER THE
SAME AREAS FOR AWHILE...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAD AN INCH OR TWO
OF RAIN YESTERDAY...COULD BE SOME MINOR ISSUES WITH WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC BASED CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMB TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH LIS AROUND MINUS 4
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND LIFE SPAN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN SHARP CONTRAST...MARINE AMS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO ERODE AND HOLDING TEMPERATURES
DOWN. HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH SUN ANGLE AND MIXING WILL BREAK UP THE
LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED THAT
WEST EDGE OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP BEFORE SUNSET.
DECIDED TO PLAY POPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST BASICALLY WEST OF I77. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...KEPT ISOLATED SCATTERED POPS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. THE SWODY2 HAS PUSHED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY. MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT OR LIFT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE A CHALLENGE WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER. RAISED HIGHS UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE DELMARVA SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
HIGH THEN BECOMES POSITIONED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.
EXPECTING A DRY FINISH TO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY OR UNTIL THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE EAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHALLOW UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...BKN SORT OF CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SCATTERED SUNDAY. BY MONDAY TENDENCY WILL BE FOR
MODERATE CU FORMATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGS INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND HIGHER CAPE.
H85 TEMPS OF 8C IN THE VA PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND CLOSER
TO 15C ON MONDAY. SUNDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A WINNER IN TERMS
OF COMFORT FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NORTH OF THIS
RIDGE...A MORE ZONAL TYPE PATTERN WILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN CONUS...ALTHOUGH VERY NOISY...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIPPLING EAST WITHIN THE FASTER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL FAVOR A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE NORMAL...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THE PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A
DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOTHING ORGANIZED PER SE
OR LASTING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME...BUT MAINLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IF THERE IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO BEING ORGANIZED IT WILL
MOST LIKELY COME FROM SOMETHING GENERATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT...THIS
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN
THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR A SQUALL LINE. OUTSIDE OF
THIS UPSTREAM THREAT...LOCAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES IN
THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WIND
CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE GREATEST. WITH WESTERLY SORT OF WINDS
ALOFT...A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE PIEDMONT WHICH
WILL AID IN SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE TOO.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER CONFINED TO NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHICH IS ACROSS NW NC
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...SOUTH AND WEST OF TAF AIRPORTS. A VERY BRIEF
SHOWER STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT OF ROA/LYH/BCB..AND MAYBE DAN
THROUGH 04Z...BUT THUNDER NOT LIKELY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF THIS IN ACTUAL TAFS SINCE PROBABILITY VERY LOW.
IN THE EAST BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT...MOIST EASTERLY MARITIME
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW IFR CIGS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET BUT
MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHT AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN ALOFT. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR SCATTERED AT
BLF AND LWB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY NOT BECOME BROKEN AT ALL
AT BLF. IFR FOG ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES...EXCEPT FOR
ROA AND BLF.
THEN WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER DOWN FROM NORTH BEHIND
THIS FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN AT MOST
LOCATIONS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...BUT DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW
QUICKLY VFR BROKEN LAYER WILL GO SCATTERED IF AT ALL.
WINDS WILL BE WEAKEN TO LIGHT EASTERLY OR CALM TONIGHT AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS BEING AT IFR
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF VFR BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE NEXT CHANCE AT SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNS BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
800 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
COOLER...MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR AND REDUCE SKY COVER
OVER SE WV PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. STILL EXPECTING LOW
CLOUDS TO FILL IN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND INTO ROA AND NRV AFTER
SUNSET...BUT MAY STAY RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE A LITTLE LONGER IN
FAR WEST. ISOLD SHWRS NORTH OF ROANOKE SHOULD QUICKLY DIE WITH
SUNSET...BUT SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER IN NW NC AND
AROUND GALAX TO HILLSVILLE MAY PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT SINCE
IN VICINITY OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MODELS SUGGEST WEAK
INSTABILITY LINGERS THERE INTO LATE EVENING. KEEPING ALL POPS
BELOW LIKELY BUT KEPT SOME MID CHANCE A LITTLE LONGER INTO
EVENING DOWN IN NC FOOTHILLS. SOME MINOR CONCERNS ABOUT HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THESE STORMS ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST BUT MAY
LINE UP MORE DURING EVENING. STILL...NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES...LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT IF THEY LINGER OVER THE
SAME AREAS FOR AWHILE...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAD AN INCH OR TWO
OF RAIN YESTERDAY...COULD BE SOME MINOR ISSUES WITH WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC BASED CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMB TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH LIS AROUND MINUS 4
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND LIFE SPAN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN SHARP CONTRAST...MARINE AMS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO ERODE AND HOLDING TEMPERATURES
DOWN. HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH SUN ANGLE AND MIXING WILL BREAK UP THE
LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED THAT
WEST EDGE OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP BEFORE SUNSET.
DECIDED TO PLAY POPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST BASICALLY WEST OF I77. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...KEPT ISOLATED SCATTERED POPS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. THE SWODY2 HAS PUSHED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY. MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT OR LIFT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE A CHALLENGE WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER. RAISED HIGHS UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE DELMARVA SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
HIGH THEN BECOMES POSITIONED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.
EXPECTING A DRY FINISH TO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY OR UNTIL THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE EAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHALLOW UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...BKN SORT OF CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SCATTERED SUNDAY. BY MONDAY TENDENCY WILL BE FOR
MODERATE CU FORMATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGS INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND HIGHER CAPE.
H85 TEMPS OF 8C IN THE VA PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND CLOSER
TO 15C ON MONDAY. SUNDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A WINNER IN TERMS
OF COMFORT FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NORTH OF THIS
RIDGE...A MORE ZONAL TYPE PATTERN WILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN CONUS...ALTHOUGH VERY NOISY...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIPPLING EAST WITHIN THE FASTER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL FAVOR A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE NORMAL...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THE PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A
DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOTHING ORGANIZED PER SE
OR LASTING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME...BUT MAINLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IF THERE IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO BEING ORGANIZED IT WILL
MOST LIKELY COME FROM SOMETHING GENERATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT...THIS
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN
THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR A SQUALL LINE. OUTSIDE OF
THIS UPSTREAM THREAT...LOCAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES IN
THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WIND
CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE GREATEST. WITH WESTERLY SORT OF WINDS
ALOFT...A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE PIEDMONT WHICH
WILL AID IN SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE TOO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER CONFINED TO NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHICH IS ACROSS NW NC
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...SOUTH AND WEST OF TAF AIRPORTS. A VERY BRIEF
SHOWER STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT OF ROA/LYH/BCB..AND MAYBE DAN
THROUGH 04Z...BUT THUNDER NOT LIKELY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF THIS IN ACTUAL TAFS SINCE PROBABILITY VERY LOW.
IN THE EAST BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT...MOIST EASTERLY MARITIME
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW IFR CIGS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET BUT
MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHT AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN ALOFT. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR SCATTERED AT
BLF AND LWB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY NOT BECOME BROKEN AT ALL
AT BLF. IFR FOG ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES...EXCEPT FOR
ROA AND BLF.
THEN WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER DOWN FROM NORTH BEHIND
THIS FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN AT MOST
LOCATIONS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...BUT DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW
QUICKLY VFR BROKEN LAYER WILL GO SCATTERED IF AT ALL.
WINDS WILL BE WEAKEN TO LIGHT EASTERLY OR CALM TONIGHT AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS BEING AT IFR
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF VFR BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE NEXT CHANCE AT SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNS BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS IN SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND STALL IN THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE WEEKEND WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 921 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HIGHLIGHTED NICELY BY MSAS ANALYSIS OF
LIFTED INDEX AND PRESSURE CHANGES...PUSHING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. KFCX 88D SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SUNSHINE
IN THE WEST WITH LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING WESTWARD TOWARDS BLUE RIDGE.
SFC OBS REPORT THAT IFR CLOUDS HAVE REACH LYH AND DAN THIS
MORNING. OUTSIDE THE LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMB QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS UP AS FEW DEGREES
WHERE READINGS ARE WARMER WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE. STILL LOOKS
LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOUDY BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND
THE LIFT FROM THE PASSING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
LOCAL RNK WRFARW AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
STARTS AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
500 MB PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH A TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK CROSS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY MIDNIGHT.
MSAS ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDEX AND PRESSURE CHANGES SHOWED FRONT WAS
JUST INTO THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AT 3AM. MODELS BRING THE
BOUNDARY AS FAR WEST AS ROANOKE DURING THE DAY THEN EXPECTING THE
STABLE AIR TO ADVANCE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH VERY SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB GETS
PUSHED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. BUT STILL AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND
THE LIFT FROM THE PASSING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIR MASS WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT
FOR ROANOKE WAS ALSO SHOWING SUPPORT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY.
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAN PAST FEW DAYS IN THE EAST.
WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT STILL GET ENOUGH SUN
WILL AGAIN REACH THE 80S FOR HIGHS. USED AN NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES CURVE FOR TODAY AND STAYED CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. ALSO USED SLIGHTLY COOLER MET FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AN ABNORMAL PATTERN FOR LATE MAY...WITH A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. VEERING THE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE S AND SW WILL BE A VERY
SLOW PROCESS...UNTIL THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.
CONTINUED WHAT HAS BEEN A NIGHTLY TREND OF LOWERING MAX T JUST ABOUT
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE MEX GUIDANCE WHICH JUST CAN`T HANDLE
THIS ODD ARRANGEMENT OF UPPER HIGHS AND LOWS. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD MAY FALL BELOW NORMAL...SAVE EXTREME SW VA AND SE WEST
VA. STILL SOME CLASHING OF AIRMASSES AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE KEEPS
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NW NC AND EXTREME SW VA ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER SURFACE HIGH ROLLING ACROSS THE LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT SUPPRESSED TO NW NC...IF AT ALL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MODELS HINTING AT SOME DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. ALSO...CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY FILL BACK IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHTS...AS AFTERNOON MIXING ENDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOING TO BE HEADING BACK TO SUMMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGE SITUATES ITSELF OVER THE WRN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
MIDWEEK...MODELS BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AS TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
SRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WORKS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE PATTERN SUGGESTS NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS TO AFFECT US...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM ESPECIALLY TUE-WED AS THE 5H FLOW FLATTENS
FOR FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVES. OVERALL WILL BE TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL
RANGE IN SHRA/TSRA THREAT...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. A LEE TROUGH SETS UP AS WELL OVER THE PIEDMONT
WHICH COULD AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.
FOR NOW KEEPING IN POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...WITH SUNDAY LOOKING
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MULTIPLE CHANGES IN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR/LIFR BEHIND THE
FRONT...INCLUDING AT KLYH AND KDAN. EXPECT ONLY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAYBE TO MVFR.
A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS THE
REGION AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONT...LEADING TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AFTER THE BULK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDS AND BEFORE SUNSET
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING ANY AMOUNT OF IMPROVEMENT.
AFTER 00Z CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR. FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT... WITH THE LOWER VISIBILITIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT SOME LOCALIZED MVFR
RESTRICTIONS MAY STILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF KBLF. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY THE ENTIRE REGION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
938 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS IN SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND STALL IN THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE WEEKEND WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 921 AM EDT THURSDAY...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HIGHLIGHTED NICELY BY MSAS ANALYSIS OF
LIFTED INDEX AND PRESSURE CHANGES...PUSHING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. KFCX 88D SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SUNSHINE
IN THE WEST WITH LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING WESTWARD TOWARDS BLUE RIDGE.
SFC OBS REPORT THAT IFR CLOUDS HAVE REACH LYH AND DAN THIS
MORNING. OUTSIDE THE LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMB QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS UP AS FEW DEGREES
WHERE READINGS ARE WARMER WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE. STILL LOOKS
LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOUDY BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND
THE LIFT FROM THE PASSING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
LOCAL RNK WRFARW AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
STARTS AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
500 MB PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH A TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK CROSS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY MIDNIGHT.
MSAS ANALYSIS OF LIFTED INDEX AND PRESSURE CHANGES SHOWED FRONT WAS
JUST INTO THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AT 3AM. MODELS BRING THE
BOUNDARY AS FAR WEST AS ROANOKE DURING THE DAY THEN EXPECTING THE
STABLE AIR TO ADVANCE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH VERY SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB GETS
PUSHED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. BUT STILL AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND
THE LIFT FROM THE PASSING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIR MASS WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT
FOR ROANOKE WAS ALSO SHOWING SUPPORT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY.
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAN PAST FEW DAYS IN THE EAST.
WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT STILL GET ENOUGH SUN
WILL AGAIN REACH THE 80S FOR HIGHS. USED AN NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES CURVE FOR TODAY AND STAYED CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. ALSO USED SLIGHTLY COOLER MET FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AN ABNORMAL PATTERN FOR LATE MAY...WITH A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. VEERING THE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE S AND SW WILL BE A VERY
SLOW PROCESS...UNTIL THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.
CONTINUED WHAT HAS BEEN A NIGHTLY TREND OF LOWERING MAX T JUST ABOUT
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE MEX GUIDANCE WHICH JUST CAN`T HANDLE
THIS ODD ARRANGEMENT OF UPPER HIGHS AND LOWS. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD MAY FALL BELOW NORMAL...SAVE EXTREME SW VA AND SE WEST
VA. STILL SOME CLASHING OF AIRMASSES AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE KEEPS
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NW NC AND EXTREME SW VA ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER SURFACE HIGH ROLLING ACROSS THE LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT SUPPRESSED TO NW NC...IF AT ALL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MODELS HINTING AT SOME DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. ALSO...CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY FILL BACK IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHTS...AS AFTERNOON MIXING ENDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOING TO BE HEADING BACK TO SUMMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGE SITUATES ITSELF OVER THE WRN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
MIDWEEK...MODELS BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AS TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
SRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WORKS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE PATTERN SUGGESTS NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS TO AFFECT US...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM ESPECIALLY TUE-WED AS THE 5H FLOW FLATTENS
FOR FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVES. OVERALL WILL BE TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL
RANGE IN SHRA/TSRA THREAT...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. A LEE TROUGH SETS UP AS WELL OVER THE PIEDMONT
WHICH COULD AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.
FOR NOW KEEPING IN POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...WITH SUNDAY LOOKING
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MULTIPLE CHANGES IN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR BEHIND THE FRONT...INCLUDING
AT KLYH AND KDAN. EXPECT ONLY LIMITED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
16Z/NOON...MAYBE TO MVFR.
A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS THE
REGION AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONT...LEADING TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AFTER THE BULK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDS AND BEFORE SUNSET
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING ANY AMOUNT OF IMPROVEMENT.
AFTER 00Z CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR. FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT... WITH THE LOWER VISIBILITIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME LOCALIZED MVFR
RESTRICTIONS MAY STILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF KBLF. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY THE ENTIRE REGION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
843 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER THE PACIFIC
NW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE
NE PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING THE REGION IN AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY ESPECIALLY INLAND.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXCEPT FOR SOME STRATUS
ALONG THE COASTLINE AND CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE CASCADES. BETWEEN
3 PM AND 7 PM THERE WAS DEEPER CONVECTION ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
FROM NEAR TIMOTHY LAKE TO MCKENZIE PASS. THERE WERE SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES DETECTED FROM THESE CELLS. SINCE 7 PM THE CELLS HAVE
DIMINISHED AND MOVED OFF INTO EASTERN OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE E
TONIGHT...LEAVING THE REGION UNDER A DRY...WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW
ALOFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BRING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.
STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FLOWING PARALLEL TO THE
COASTLINE...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE SURFACE ISOBARS. WITH THE LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT SOME OF THE STRATUS WORKING THROUGH THE LOWER
GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED IN MODELS SUN MORNING...WHICH COUPLED
WITH MARINE MOISTURE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IS
NOT OUT OF ORDER FOR SUN MORNING.
GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING UP INTO NORTHERN CA MON MAY
PULL SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE N UP THE CASCADES MON AFTERNOON. ECMWF
THOUGH REMAINS DRIER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES STILL CROSSING OUT OF THE
WNW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADES MON AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS HAS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
EXITING OREGON AND WASHINGTON TUESDAY EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CASCADES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SETTING UP FOR A
DRY PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
MEAN CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVING INLAND DURING NIGHT AND
DISSIPATING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE REGION AT 03Z...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS ALONG THE N AND CENTRAL OREGON COASTLINE. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS HUGGING THE CASCADE CREST BUT THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT INCREASING MVFR ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT...SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL RIVER DRAINAGES
OVERNIGHT. HOW FAR THESE CLOUDS WILL PENETRATE INLAND LATE
TONIGHT REMAINS A QUESTION MARK. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNATURES
THAT ARE NORMALLY FAIRLY RELIABLE ARE LESS PROMISING. WILL
MAINTAIN AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE OVER THE SW WA LOWLANDS
AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO KPDX AND VICINITY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH 00Z SUN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30
TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL AND
VICINITY AROUND 13Z. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM WILL DISSIPATE BY
17Z. WEISHAAR
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC HOLDING FIRM...AND WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GFS MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
SURFACE FEATURES WELL. STILL GETTING GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT OVER
THE WATERS AS OF 03Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT TIMING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. WIND WILL SETTLE DOWN A BIT AFTER 08Z...BUT PICK
UP AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT WIND
SPEEDS 18Z SAT THROUGH 06Z SUN. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
A BIT MORE TO THE S SAT AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY. THUS...THE S
WA WATERS MAY NOT ACHIEVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS.
THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE LONGER PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEAS TO BE RELATIVELY STEEP AND
CHOPPY AS WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE WA
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN FRESH NW SWELL PUSHING 10 FT
BY TUE. WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
759 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will undergo a warming trend this weekend.
Many areas will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. The majority
of the region will remain dry through the middle of next week.
However, the mountainous regions of north Idaho and northern
Washington will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon through mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Scattered thunderstorm activity that has been
mainly be confined to Kittitas and Yakima counties but is
starting to drift northward into southern Chelan County. There
have not been any strikes observed in Chelan County but a few
cells near the crest could still strengthen over the next hour.
With the sun setting, the main threat with this activity will
transition to isolated showers. Latest HRRR is doing well with
the placement of this activity and takes it to the northeast while
falling apart upon reaching southern Okanogan County. Consequently,
a few light showers are expected to pass through Wenatchee...
Waterville Plateau...and eastern reaches of Chelan County over
the next few hours then wane by 06z.
The next feature of note is a midlevel circulation that came from
northern CA and is driving thunderstorms across Central Oregon.
Clouds and any shower activity with this feature will spread into
SE WA and the lower ID Panhandle between 6-12z. A few light
showers will be possible but once again, the threat for thunder is
low (not entirely impossible) but too low to differ from the
dayshifts thoughts which advertised showers over thunderstorms.
I did spread the threat for sprinkles and light showers northward
into Pullman/Lewiston and increased cloud cover. This also lead to
raising overnight temperatures for most locations south of line
from Mullan to La Crosse. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites through
00z Sat. Main weather of concern this period will be two areas
with a marginal chance of showers and thunderstorms. The first is
over the northern Cascades and Okanogan Highlands between
00-03z. The second is a cluster of elevated convection tracking
NE from Oregon overnight expected to bring passing cigs btwn 8-10K
ft AGL vcnty KPUW/KLWS. A few -shra will will be possible but
confidence is not high. Aft 20z...aftn heating and presence of
upper-low over the region will renew the threat for -shra and
isold -tsra mainly across the mtns but with the best instability
focusing in the ID Panhandle and Blue Mtns...may see a few -shra
vcnty KLWS/KPUW. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 78 51 79 53 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 48 78 48 78 50 80 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Pullman 49 77 46 77 48 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 55 84 53 84 55 88 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Colville 45 78 48 80 50 84 / 10 20 10 10 10 10
Sandpoint 45 77 45 78 47 80 / 0 20 20 10 10 10
Kellogg 47 75 48 75 50 80 / 10 30 20 10 10 10
Moses Lake 49 84 52 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 53 84 59 86 61 88 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 43 82 51 85 53 87 / 10 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
255 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER THE PACIFIC
NW WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE MOVING E OVER THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING AND ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES TODAY
OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO LINGER INTO SAT...
BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE E. DESPITE THE TROUGH...12Z SOUNDINGS AT
UIL SLE AND MFR ALL SHOWED A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN 850 MB AND
700 MB THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE SUBSIDENCE TO
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN A BIT AND LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP FURTHER
THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO WORK WITH FRI AND SAT OUTSIDE OF
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES FRI AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS DEEP ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH CASCADES AND IN TO THE HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. GFS AND ECWMF BOTH SHOW A SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH SW WA
AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LITTLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES IT.
WILL EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK A BIT ABOVE
NORMALS FRI IN RESPONSE TO SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING 850 MB TEMPS.
THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS E SAT NIGHT AND SUN...ALTHOUGH REGION REMAINS
UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WILL KEEP A MARINE AIR MASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SUN WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SOME HINTS IN MODELS AT
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING SUN MORNING WHICH COUPLED WITH
MARINE MOISTURE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST
AND 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. TW
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS 050-070 WILL CONTINUE THRU 02Z ALONG THE
COAST AND N AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH TOPS AROUND 080.
SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND THE CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME
SCATTERED OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS AFTER SUNSET. STRATUS
EXPECTED RE FORM OVERNIGHT OVER THE N INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AROUND 020 FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 12Z. THIS STRATUS WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH SCT-BKN 060 THRU 03Z FRIDAY...
BECOMING SCATTERED CLOUDS 060 AFT 21Z. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIG AT THE TERMINAL 12Z-18Z. SCHNEIDER
&&
.MARINE...THERMAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE S OREGON
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE THIS EVENING.
THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH FROM WASHINGTON AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG DURING THE
AFTERNOONS ALTHOUGH THE DIRECTION WILL FAVOR MORE OF A
WESTNORTHWEST WIND. SINCE WINDS WERE LIGHT TODAY THERE HAS NOT
BEEN TOO MUCH OF A WIND WAVE BUT THEY WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. A NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE WAVE PERIOD BUT THERE IS NOT
MUCH ENERGY IN THIS SWELL SO SIG WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 7
FT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE
WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
MOST DAYS.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
246 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be confined mainly to the
northern mountains this evening as a low pressure system pulls
away from the region. Much warmer weather develops Friday and
continues into the weekend. Many areas will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s Friday through Wednesday. Most areas will be dry
through the middle of next week...shower or thunderstorm
development is possible in the mountains each afternoon and
evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Although temperatures are warming aloft with the upper
level low pressure system well off to the northeast now, we are
still holding onto to some weak surface based instability across
the Northeast Mtns. A weak impulse moving through the northwest
flow out of BC is triggering a batch of showers near Republic. The
HRRR model takes these showers and slides them southeast with time
this evening. This will impact the communities of Colville,
Metaline Falls and eventually into Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry if
they continue to hold together that long. These showers seem to
be producing fairly weak updrafts due to only a marginally
unstable atmosphere, so not convinced we will see any lightning
from these showers through the rest of the afternoon into the
evening; however, guidance off of the HRRR and SPC SREF page
indicates a slight chance that we could still see a thunderstorm
develop up till about 8:00 PM this evening or so. Showers will
quickly dissipate over the evening as we lose our daytime heating.
Skies will clear out overnight with dew points sitting in the low
to mid 30s. Winds will also be light and strong radiational
cooling is anticipated to take place overnight. Expect lows
tonight to drop into the low to mid 30s across the northern
valleys and colder pockets may drop down to freezing; this will
include locations such as Republic, Springdale and Republic. With
the idea that showers will continue into the evening across the
northern mountains, I added patchy fog to the forecast for late
tonight into early Friday morning.
Friday: We will see a significant rise to temperatures tomorrow of
around 8-10 degrees compared to this afternoon. This will begin a
warming trend into the weekend. Another upper level disturbance,
currently located in northwestern BC, will begin to drop down into
the northern WA Cascades by the afternoon. This will result in
some developing showers north of the Canadian border in BC and
along the Cascade Mtns. These showers may also produce a few
thunderstorms; all other areas will likely remain dry. /SVH
Fri Nt through Sunday: The entire weekend will be dominated by a
slow-moving upper trough...first moving into Ern Wa and N Id Fri
Nt, then not exiting into Wrn Montana until late Sunday. This low
will weaken slowly in general, and is not showing the magnitude
of stretching/strong weakening as model guidance hinted at
yesterday. The good new, at least confidence- wise, is that there
is much more agreement between guidance versus the previous runs.
Even so, there will still be a number of embedded vort maxes
within this upper low, each having the potential to enhance
localized regions of heavier convective pcpn. But given the lack
of notable instability, it`s likely that the pcpn will be dominated
by diurnal processes...ie, the vast majority of the pcpn will be
confined to the afternoon/early evening and driven mostly by
insolation (peak heating) over the elevated heat and moisture
sources of the mountain zones. We`ll be watching closely how these
embedded vort maxes evolve according to the models, then try to
fine tune the fcst to locate the best potential for showers and
thunderstorms. bz
Sunday evening through Thursday...Longwave trof continues to
influence the majority of this time interval. The synoptic
features nested in this longwave trof include a parts of a
shortwave trof and embedded low along with minor disturbances
rotating around its periphery lifting out slowly and clumsily
Sunday evening into Monday evening. This may result in relatively
low pops depicting the low potential for showers and
thunderstorms. Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon there is
another hint at a shortwave trof dropping down in a northwest to
southeast trajectory that may be more of a breezy wind and wind
gust maker in addition to having some potential for light
precipitationso more wording for showers and thunderstorms
remain in various shape or form over North Idaho and over and near
the mountainous terrain of Northeast Washington. Wednesday and
Thursday the flow over Eastern Washington and North Idaho still
remains somewhat trof like in appearance but the ECMWF and GFS
differ in timing and passage of northwest to southeast traversing
synoptic/mesoscale features through the trof. So all in all there
really isn`t a period void of pops or a mention of convection in
some shape or form in the forecast area. Since the trof isn`t
substantially deep daytime heating and not too much cloud cover to
inhibit it should result in forecast temperatures on slightly on
the warm side of what would be considered normal for this time of
year. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An upper level low pressure system will begin to exit
the region today. Some weak surface based instability will result
in a redevelopment of showers this afternoon over the mountains.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the northern
mountains of eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle, but will not
impact the taf sites. All taf locations will see some flat cumulus
in the afternoon with VFR conditions expected through 18Z Friday.
/SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 45 74 50 78 51 78 / 10 0 10 10 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 39 75 46 78 51 78 / 10 0 10 20 20 20
Pullman 36 74 45 75 49 76 / 0 0 20 20 20 20
Lewiston 45 81 52 80 54 82 / 0 0 10 20 20 20
Colville 41 75 44 79 49 80 / 20 10 10 10 10 10
Sandpoint 37 74 44 76 46 72 / 10 0 0 10 10 20
Kellogg 41 74 45 76 48 74 / 0 0 10 20 20 30
Moses Lake 44 80 50 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 50 80 56 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 41 78 48 81 49 83 / 10 10 10 0 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
ON THE CONUS SCALE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A REX
BLOCK PATTERN WITH A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE TX/OK/AR BORDERS AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION INTO WESTERN ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A DEEP
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF CANADA
TO ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS DIRECTING A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE/FUEL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN NORTHERN PLAINS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH FIELD OF CUMULUS
ACROSS MOST OF IA INTO THE MAJORITY OF MN IN RETURN FLOW AROUND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE 80S.
FOR TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR AREA QUIET AND
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR SOME INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH EASTWARD
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT/CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
CRANBERRY BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IN THE WISCONSIN
RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW SURFACE HIGH HOLDING STRONG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT NAM/GFS/HIRES ECMWF ALL
SHOWING MAIN CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINING WEST OF
THE AREA WITH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY BRUSHING AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THINKING WE WILL SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL ACCAS THROUGH THE DAY BUT HELD ANY SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE
WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.
LOOK FOR A GENERAL UPTICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOCUSING BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES
LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE AT
THIS POINT WITH 0-3KM MUCAPE ONLY IN THE 500-800J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR
WITHIN THIS CAPE LAYER ONLY IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. THINKING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS CREEPING UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES...SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SURFACE LOW SPINS UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND TRACKS NORTHEAST EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST WI. MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE ON MONDAY AS BOTH THE NAM/GFS PRODUCE
A CORRIDOR OF PRE-FRONTAL 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 1500-3000J/KG RANGE
ALONG WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. NAM ALSO SHOWS 700-
500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7-8C/KM. SO...APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE THREAT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE AREA.
THIS LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES AT LEAST FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH BEST CHANCES
BASICALLY CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. ADJUSTED
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. LOOK FOR COOLER AIR OTHERWISE ON BRISK WEST
WINDS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WED-FRI...ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING A
GENERALLY FLATTENED MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL
TROUGHS RIPPLING THROUGH THIS QUASI-HIGH ZONAL FLOW. APPEARS AT THIS
POINT THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS BOTH MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRING A FAIRLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A GENERAL
COOLING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS WED IN THE 70-
75 DEGREE RANGE AND IN THE MID 60S/LOWER 70S FOR THU. HIGHS LOOK
LIKE THEY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
FETCH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS HELPING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN MN INTO IA....WITH SHOWERS/STORMS PERSISTING
OVER WESTERN MN. DRIER AIR ACROSS WI AND EASTERN MN WAS SERVING TO
KEEP ANY PCPN...AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS...AT BAY.
THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...AND EXPECT A
BKN VFR CIG TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AT KRST/KLSE. MUCH LIKE
TODAY...INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP FIRE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
MOISTURE FEED...WHICH COULD IMPACT KRST. WILL HOLD WITH VCSH FOR
NOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT SAT...AS THE
850 MB LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...AND A SFC FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENCROACH ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PERIODS OF SHRA/TS ARE LIKELY FOR SUN-
MON...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
ON THE CONUS SCALE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A REX
BLOCK PATTERN WITH A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE TX/OK/AR BORDERS AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION INTO WESTERN ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A DEEP
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF CANADA
TO ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS DIRECTING A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE/FUEL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN NORTHERN PLAINS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH FIELD OF CUMULUS
ACROSS MOST OF IA INTO THE MAJORITY OF MN IN RETURN FLOW AROUND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE 80S.
FOR TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR AREA QUIET AND
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR SOME INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH EASTWARD
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT/CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
CRANBERRY BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IN THE WISCONSIN
RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW SURFACE HIGH HOLDING STRONG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT NAM/GFS/HIRES ECMWF ALL
SHOWING MAIN CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINING WEST OF
THE AREA WITH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY BRUSHING AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THINKING WE WILL SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL ACCAS THROUGH THE DAY BUT HELD ANY SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE
WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.
LOOK FOR A GENERAL UPTICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOCUSING BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES
LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE AT
THIS POINT WITH 0-3KM MUCAPE ONLY IN THE 500-800J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR
WITHIN THIS CAPE LAYER ONLY IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. THINKING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS CREEPING UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES...SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SURFACE LOW SPINS UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND TRACKS NORTHEAST EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST WI. MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE ON MONDAY AS BOTH THE NAM/GFS PRODUCE
A CORRIDOR OF PRE-FRONTAL 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 1500-3000J/KG RANGE
ALONG WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. NAM ALSO SHOWS 700-
500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7-8C/KM. SO...APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE THREAT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE AREA.
THIS LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES AT LEAST FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH BEST CHANCES
BASICALLY CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. ADJUSTED
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. LOOK FOR COOLER AIR OTHERWISE ON BRISK WEST
WINDS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WED-FRI...ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING A
GENERALLY FLATTENED MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL
TROUGHS RIPPLING THROUGH THIS QUASI-HIGH ZONAL FLOW. APPEARS AT THIS
POINT THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS BOTH MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRING A FAIRLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A GENERAL
COOLING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS WED IN THE 70-
75 DEGREE RANGE AND IN THE MID 60S/LOWER 70S FOR THU. HIGHS LOOK
LIKE THEY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
FETCH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS HELPING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHRA/TS ACROSS WESTERN MN INTO IA. DRIER AIR
ACROSS WI AND EASTERN MN WAS SERVING TO KEEP ANY PCPN...AND MOST OF
THE CLOUDS...AT BAY.
THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...AND EXPECT A
BKN VFR CIG TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AT KRST/KLSE. MUCH LIKE
TODAY...INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP FIRE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
MOISTURE FEED...WHICH COULD IMPACT KRST. WILL ADD A VCSH FOR NOW.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT SAT...AS THE
850 MB LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...AND A SFC FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENCROACH ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PERIODS OF SHRA/TS ARE LIKELY FOR SUN-
MON...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
309 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES AS SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW ALLOWING SOME QUICK SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS TO FIRE
BEFORE QUICKLY SCOOTING OFF TO THE EAST. THE HRRR IS DOING FAIRLY
WELL PICKING UP ON THIS CONVECTION SO FOLLOWED THIS GUIDANCE WITH
MOST CONVECTION DYING DOWN NEAR SUNRISE THOUGH AN ODD CELL OR TWO
MAY REMAIN...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FROM NOON ONWARDS. PWATS
REMAIN HIGH WITH INSTABILITY AND CAPE FAVORING HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITH FORECAST FOLLOWING SUIT. ATTM...MODELS FAVORING THE FLATTOPS
AND CENTRAL MTNS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE A BIT MORE THAN THAT.
THOSE AREAS THAT SEE THESE STORMS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE SEPARATING FROM
THE LEFT COAST THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...PULLING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL FOCUS MAINLY TO
OUR NORTH. HOWEVER ADDED LIFT WILL COME FROM THE INDIRECT
CIRCULATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET NOSING INTO UTAH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH THE BETTER FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
KEEP THINGS MILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE WANING
BY SUNRISE WITH ONLY HIGH BASED WEAK SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND KEEP RIVERS RUNNING STRONG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAJA BULGES
NORTHWARD INTO THE 4 CORNERS AREA. THIS EFFECTIVELY CUTS OFF A
MOISTURE TAP AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY WARMING A FEW DEGREES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT PUSHING THE NEXT
PACIFIC LOW INTO CALIFORNIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ALOFT AND BRING MORE AFTERNOON BREEZINESS ALONG
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE SUBTROPICAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORECAST
MOISTURE REMAINS LOW WITH LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP INCREASING
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. AFTER
THAT...THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH GETS FLATTENED...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER LEAVING ERN UT/WRN CO TO
DEAL WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WITH
LITTLE UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND MEAGER MOISTURE...AN OCCNL
SHOWER/STORM MAY POP UP HERE OR THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME STORMS DRIFTING OVER
NEARBY VALLEYS. MTN TAF SITES LOOK TO BE UNDER THE GUN TODAY
INCLUDING KEGE...KASE...AND KTEX THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL FORM ON-STATION. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WITH STORMS THAT FORM. SOME
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION
WITH RIVERS AND STREAMS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH OR INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOW INCREASES. THE
HIGHEST FLOWS ARE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE
GUNNISON BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING
BORDER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. THAT BEING SAID...ALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS THE FORECAST WILL BE RUNNING FAST AND STRONG THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING
DOWN OR RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/15
LONG TERM...15/TGR
AVIATION...TGR
HYDROLOGY...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH
CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME INFERRED WEAK BOUNDARIES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEW POINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS WITH 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR...AND RAP TRENDS...THE CONVECTION FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH MORE NORTHERN PROGRESS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THUS AREAS
SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KSPI LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS.
AFTER SUNSET...THE REMAINING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY 10-11 PM
ALONG WITH THE REMAINING DIURNAL CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE QUIET AND DRY.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN INITIALLY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY MID DAY.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH SUNSET. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL ALLOW NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MOVING EAST.
IF CORRECT...THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WOULD ARRIVE IN THE AREA VERY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS IT
DISSIPATES. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS COMPLEX WOULD THEN
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT ON...
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. THE GFS KEEPS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
WEIGHING THE STRENGTHS/WEAKNESSES OF THE MODELS AND CONSIDERING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE...THE IDEA OF BRINGING IN A DRYING TREND
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DOES HAVE MERIT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS
EACH DAY. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE SUGGESTS A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH AN EAST/WEST BOUNDARY SETTING UP IN OR CLOSE TO THE
AREA. WILL IT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THE ENTIRE TIME. NO. EACH ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL DICTATE WHERE SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. SO...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ATTEMPTING TO PIN THEM DOWN IS NOT POSSIBLE
WHEN DEALING WITH NONLINEAR PROCESSES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN AXIS OF MOIST AIR FROM WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHEAST IOWA WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. SCT-BKN CIRRUS WILL KEEP THE VSBYS IN THE FOG
AROUND 5SM...HOWEVER ANY PROLONGED CLEARING OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW
VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL
IOWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHEAST IOWA.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
253 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSES LOW STILL
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SW FLOW
EXTENDING OVER A LONG FETCH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. AT
THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY EXTENDING FROM
NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO JUST WEST OF THE
KS/CO STATE LINE. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY MATCHING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT/ACTIVE PATTERN AS SW FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND A LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
AND TD VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 60F WILL ALSO LINGER.
I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANY
PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING DOES GENERALLY FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WHILE CAPE PROFILES COULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE SHORT
TERM...THE BEST SHEER IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST).
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON (IF NAM SOLUTION WORKS OUT)...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. I BUMPED UP POPS/WINDS
(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY)...AND ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. I CONSIDERED DOING THE SAME FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER I AM LESS CONFIDENT ON MONDAYS PATTERN AT THIS
POINT. STILL WORTH MONITORING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH MID-WEEK TO DROP TEMPS DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM WEST
TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC. ALL GLOBAL
GUIDANCE IS IN SOLD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASPECT. A WEAK POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FINE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE STRENGTH/TIMING
IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT ON THE WHOLE THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE...PROBABLY
BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT AND A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ON
LATER IN THE WEEK.
TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH
850MB TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S C...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN THE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA /TRIBUNE AND LEOTI/ APPROACHING
TRIPE DIGITS. A STRONG DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE BEST ALONG/NORTH OF
I-70...THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM DESPITE DEW
POINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE LATE
TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT CAP HOLDING AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE LIMITATIONS SO
WILL KEEP POPS SUB-50 PERCENT FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOLER TEMPS.
SOME BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE
ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COLORADO MOVING NORTHEAST COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. LIMITED CAPE WILL PREVENT STRONG T-STORMS. CHANCE FOR RAIN
INCREASES THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN
FROM THE EAST SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE GLD AREA
AND INTO THE MCK AREA.
CONDITIONS AT GLD SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS SHOWERS DISSIPATE AFTER
08Z. CLOUD COVER WILL GO FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED AFTER 16Z WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AFTER AFTER 21Z.
MCK SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A POSSIBILITY OF CONDITIONS GOING TO
MVFR WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE
TO PERSIST AND A HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
BRINGING A DRIER AIR MASS TO THAT PART OF THE STATE. ON SATELLITE...A
WISP OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THIS TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS
DRIER AIR AND THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST...TOO...BUT MAINLY A
RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE IS NOTED THERE AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE VARIES MORE BROADLY WITH LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS FOUND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHILE MID 50S ARE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
ONE DEEP CLOSED LOW IS MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND
ANOTHER WEAKER ONE FILLING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN
TIME...THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING ALL THE ENERGY
NORTH AND WEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE RIDGE DOES WEAKEN QUICKLY...
THOUGH...AS IT SINKS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BIT MORE MID LEVEL ENERGY TO SEEP INTO KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE
SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...
BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY...QUIET...
AND WARM DAY UNDER RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW MORE
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SEEPS BACK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT/ALL AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE TONIGHT FOR MORE
OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR LATER SUNDAY THROUGH THE CWA...OTHERWISE
KEPT THEM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH A LOT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION DURING THE EXTENDED. STARTING AT 0Z MONDAY...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...AND A
LOW OVER LOUISIANA CONTINUING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. BEING WEDGED
BETWEEN THE TWO...THE FLOW ACROSS KY WILL FEATURE WARM MOIST
SOUTHERN AIR OFF THE GULF. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO STRETCH
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
DECENT LIFT AND A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD. DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BRING CONVECTION TO MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE
CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF TO THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NE. THIS
INCLUDES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL RUN HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR EASTERN KY...BEING ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE BEST
CONVECTION. EXPECT BY 0Z MONDAY...THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
BUT DYING OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAISED POPS BOTH SUNDAY
/SHORT TERM/ AND SUNDAY EVENING FROM PREVIOUS.
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE HUMID CONDITIONS BUT DYING
CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER RAMP UP FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED SEWARD...EDGING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND ALLOWING THE BEST MOISTURE FLOW TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL...PUTTING MUCH OF KY INTO THE MOIST
UNSTABLE FLOW. BY 12Z TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE
STATE...BRINGING LIKELY POPS INTO EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON THE EXACT TIMING OF ENTRANCE AND EXIT ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT LACKING...BUT EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE PEAK OF THE
AFTERNOON...THEN GET CUT OFF BY DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING OVERNIGHT.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
SECONDARY FRONT DEVELOPING AND FOLLOWING IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF ITS
PREDECESSOR...BRINGING YET ANOTHER BOUGHT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OVERALL MODEL UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND SET UP
WILL LEAD TO STICKING CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD. ANOTHER...WEAKER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY.
AT THIS POINT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW AND PRECIP
MOVING JUST NORTH OF KY...WITH SOME WARRANTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE GFS...WHICH THE ALLBLEND
LEANS MORE HEAVILY ON...SHOWS THIS LOW PASSING THROUGH THE
STATE...AND BRINGING A GOOD DUMP OF PRECIP ONCE MORE THURSDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON HEATING AND
PROXIMITY TO INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT
WITH THE CHANCE POPS THAT WERE GIVEN.
A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...THOUGH STILL RATHER
UNDETERMINED...WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...OR MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED CONVECTION. ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE WARRANTS LEANING
TOWARDS THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
WITH NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RATHER UNIFORM. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND DROP INTO
THE 60S OVERNIGHT. KEPT WITH A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...AS EVEN THE IMPACTING FRONTS SHOULD CORRELATE WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL BE
SOME MVFR OR LOWER VALLEY FOG INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY
FROM SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHERE THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE THE
SMALLEST. SOME VALLEY AIRPORT LOCATIONS SUCH AS I39...W38...AND K1A6
COULD GET DOWN TO AIRPORT MINS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 13Z...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
355 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MESOLOW CENTER NEAR
MOOSEHEAD LAKE. LATEST HRRR FORECAST HAS THIS FEATURE DRIFTING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT WITH
THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND ALSO OFFSHORE AND NEAR BOSTON...
WHICH IS ALREADY OCCURRING. AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES ... MORE
SHOWERS WILL ERUPT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CHANCE
COVERAGE OVER ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
FORCING DISAPPEARS. SAID FORCING IS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT WILL SERVE TO CUT OFF THE
UPPER LOW JUST OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH WILL WASH OUT WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND DEW
POINTS AND WINDS TAKE A NOSE DIVE. PW VALUES DROP TO ABOUT THE 15%
PERCENTILE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY FOSTER CONDITIONS FOR FOG BUT ALSO
FROST. THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORED LOW SPOTS WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING. FROST WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR FROST
ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SUNDAY WILL START OUT CHILLY BUT THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE
BY THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
WESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S EVEN CLOSER TO THE COAST ON MONDAY. LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY SOME SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DOWN INTO
MAINE.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WEATHER.
BY TUESDAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST...
BRINGING A COOLER MARINE INFLUENCE ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SO IN SPITE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL EXISTING
ALOFT... THE WARM AIR WILL NOT BE FULLY FELT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
MOST OF MAINE AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
60S. FURTHER WEST... MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARD JAMES BAY IN
CANADA... AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY EXIST A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA... WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT LATER THIS
MORNING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GUSTY N TO NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A MOIST EAST OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY BRING LOWER CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS KEEPS CONDITIONS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL. FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 5+ FT
SWELLS MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT THAT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE THIS HIGH.
EVEN SO... THE LONG PERIOD WILL LIKELY MAKE THE IMPACT OF THESE
WAVES FAIRLY MINOR AND AN ADVISORY WILL NOT LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...MOSTLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WEST. LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAIN SHOULD KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP TO
NEAR 25-35% BY THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
HANES/KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1129 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
Scattered thunderstorms have had more coverage this afternoon than
yesterday. These storms are occurring in an axis of 925-850mb
moisture convergence that shows up well in the latest runs on of the
RAP. Still expect the storms to gradually diminish early this
evening as the RAP shows the aforementioned low level forcing
weakening at the same time we will lose daytime heating. Expect the
rest of the night to be mainly dry with the potential for some
patchy fog toward morning. MOS lows in the mid-upper 60s still look
reasonable given current dewpoints.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
This discussion is probably starting to sound like a broken record,
but once again, not much change from the prev forecast.
Thru the weekend, expect much of the same as the past couple of
days. TSRA will develop mid to late morning and continue into the
evening before dissipating. Have therefore continued a persistence
forecast thru the weekend for POPs and temps.
Mdls are in good agreement bringing a cdfnt into the region on Mon
as an upper trof ejects into the Plains as the upper ridge finally
breaks down. This fnt shud bring TSRA to portions of the area.
Latest mdls suggest stronger upper forcing further swd than the prev
couple of days. Have therefore continued higher POPs as more than
enuf moisture and heating shud be available for convective
development. Did not spread the likely POPs too much further S due
to uncertainty of how far the fnt will drift S given the better
forcing remaining further N.
Mdl solns begin diverging much beyond Mon and have continued a
fairly persistent forecast for temps for now. Have also kept POPs in
the low to mid chance range due to differences among mdl solns.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri May 30 2014
MVFR fog will be the main hazard overnight, especially where
rainfall occurred on Friday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the heat of
the day again on Saturday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Only a trace of rain was reported at KSTL today, so not real
excited about fog developing at the terminal. Will see a repeat on
Saturday with showers and thunderstorms developing after 18Z.
Light southeast wind to continue.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE PLACEMENT OF
REDEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CURRENT
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED OR SHIFTED TO THE EAST AS H850 LLJ TURNS
MORE WESTERLY AND WEAKENS BY 12Z. THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY IS
GENERALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE OVER RED LAKE ND WESTERN POLK COUNTY...BUT THE MAIN
FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY WILL BE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. OVERALL MODELS TARGET SERN HALF OF CWA BUT
EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS STILL QUITE VARIABLE. THROUGH
18Z...GENERALLY WILL FOLLOW THE 4KM WRF AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TODAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN SD WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND UP INTO
WADENA...POLK...OTTER TAIL AND GRANT COUNTIES. DO EXPECT DRY AREA
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CARRINGTON-LAKOTA- CAVALIER LINE TO FILL
IN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND...AS BAND OF MID
LEVEL FG FORCING SHIFTS EAST (AND AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH).
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK AND BEST CHANCE FOR
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE THERE REMAINS SOME LLJ INFLUENCE. BEYOND 18Z MODELS VARY
ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIP. OVERALL PREFER A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH
KEEPS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHERN VALLEY FAIRLY DRY.
TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY OVER NORTHWESTERN HALF OF CWA AND
CHALLENGE WILL BE PLACEMENT OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO VARY ON LOCATION. GFS ACTUALLY DRIES OUT MOST OF AREA IN THE
06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME WHEREAS THE NAM IS QUITE BULLISH OVER MY
EAST CNTRL ZONES AND THE GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TARGET THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE MAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SUNDAY...THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH AS A SECOND UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WILL
LIKELY SEE A BREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
SHOWERS THEN LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CNTRL DAKOTAS SUN
AFTN. OVERALL TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY THE TIME THIS SECOND WAVE MOVES OUT ON
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN DAKOTAS AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER
FROM THE SW. SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER MINNESOTA WITH INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP GOING
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA AND LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE NAMDNG GUIDANCE IS GOING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ND MON...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INVERTED
TROUGH...COULD SEE RAINFALL IMPACT TEMPS TO THAT DEGREE AND WILL
TREND TEMPS DOWN BUT NOT QUITE THAT DRASTIC YET AS MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR DAY 3.
MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS AND WE SHOULD SEE PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND GEM ARE QUICKER
(GEM IS THE FASTEST) IN ENDING PRECIP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE
GFS/ECMWF HOLD ON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ALL BUT MY SOUTHEAST...SO CHANGED PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. LOOK FOR ACTIVITY
TO DECLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TUESDAY.
FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...IT SHOULD DRY OUT ON TUE WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FAR EAST MAINLY TUE MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE DRY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT IN ALL AREAS. BY THU AND
FRI...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH A
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WE HAVE HAD OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SET OF TAFS...ATTEMPTED TO PROVIDE DETAIL TO
THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS...WITH JUST A GENERAL FORECAST AFTER 9 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES
INCREASING SATURDAY MORNING.
AT 04Z...THERE WAS AN AREA OF LIFR CONDITIONS JUST WEST OF THE
VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE DVL BASIN. KDVL IS NOW INDICATING
FEW004...AND ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR KDVL BEFORE
SUNRISE (THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE AGREES). WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF
THESE CONDITIONS ADVECT INTO THE VALLEY SITES...AT THIS POINT THAT
PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1136 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
LOOKING AT THE CONUS RADAR IMAGERY THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF
RAINFALL ARE OBSERVED...WITH ONE OVER THIS FA...ANOTHER IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. EACH OF THESE AREAS
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH ARE BEGINNING TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH THE 2-5 INCH AMOUNTS REMAINING
ISOLATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES
FROM THE LAKE OF THE WOODS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ND INTO THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAS
REACHED WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S ACROSS SERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS
A BROAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND EDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER BASIN. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD STREETS
FEEDING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN SD AND SOUTHERN MN AND INTO THE
LOW LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BAND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PUSHING 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES. ONGOING
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN
SD INTO ERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT... WHILE DEEPER SFC BASED CONVECTION STEADILY FILLS IN
EAST OF THE FRONT THROUGH SERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN. SURFACE TO
2 KM VGP VALUES APPROACH .2 TO .3 ACROSS SERN AND EAST CENTRAL ND
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SUPERCELL TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL THOUGH HEAVIER RAINFALL AND LOW TILT STORMS WILL ACT TO
REDUCE THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT. A MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA... WITH RAINFALL CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF AN INCH OR GREATER RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH BOTH ELEVATED
AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AGAIN EXPECTED TO FIRE FROM THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHUD
SHIFT OVER SERN ND AND FURTHER INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
MN BY SATURDAY EVENING. PWATS ON SATURDAY SHUD AGAIN APPROACH 1.5
INCHES SO THAT AREA RAINFALL OF AN INCH OR GREATER ARE LIKELY...
MAINLY ALG AND EAST OF A BAUDETTE-FOSSTON-GWINNER LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT SOME BREAK IN THE RAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A THIRD ROUND OF RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA... WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH OVER EASTERN PACIFIC/PACIFIC NORTHWEST BECOMES ZONAL
BY DAY 7. ALSO LONG WAVE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS THE FAST SOLUTION.
THE DGEX AND NAM WERE STRONGER AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS, AND THE ECMWF
WAS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING NORTH WITH SOUTHERN STREAM AND SHIFTING
SOUTH WITH NORTHERN STREAM. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTH WITH
NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF TO START AND THE GFS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DECREASED POPS FOR TUE. WILL TRIM BACK POPS IN FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR
TUE NIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTH AND EAST WED AND WED NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR TUE AND DECREASED ONE, TWO,
AND THREE DEGREES FOR WED, THU, AND FRI RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SET OF TAFS...ATTEMPTED TO PROVIDE DETAIL TO
THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS...WITH JUST A GENERAL FORECAST AFTER 9 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES
INCREASING SATURDAY MORNING.
AT 04Z...THERE WAS AN AREA OF LIFR CONDITIONS JUST WEST OF THE
VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE DVL BASIN. KDVL IS NOW INDICATING
FEW004...AND ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR KDVL BEFORE
SUNRISE (THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE AGREES). WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF
THESE CONDITIONS ADVECT INTO THE VALLEY SITES...AT THIS POINT THAT
PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
408 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY.
COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIFT QUICKLY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL STAY IN CONTROL THRU
TONIGHT...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MILD AFTERNOONS...AND
COOL NIGHTS. WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED DOWN SLOPING
WARMING OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. NIGHT WILL COOL DOWN DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS UNDER WEAK OR CALM
FLOW.
SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAVORABLE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS NEARBY BKN UNDER EASTERLY FLOW.
BLENDED THE ALL BLEND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH THE MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET AT THE OUTSET OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST REGION. INHERITED MAX TEMPS SUNDAY APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM GENERALLY LOWER/MID 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS...TO THE
UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AXIS
OF RETURN LLVL MOISTURE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO INCH CLOSER TO THE AREA. DID NUDGE SKY COVER UP JUST A LITTLE TO
REFLECT A GENERAL PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MANY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM PREV FCST WAS TO INSERT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MENTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF NE KY AND
EXTREME SE OHIO FOR JUST A FEW HOURS ROUGHLY 20Z SUN - 00Z MON.
THOUGH THE LACK OF AN APPARENT TRIGGERING MECHANISM IS THE
WILDCARD...WITH GOOD ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1400 J/KG AND PWATS UP
TO 1.20-1.30 IN THIS AREA...CAN`T OPERATIONALLY SAY THAT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT POSSIBLE. ALSO...STORM MOTION IS TO THE
NORTHEAST...SO IT`S FEASIBLY POSSIBLE THAT SOMETHING WHICH FORMS
FURTHER WEST OR SW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MAKES IT INTO THE TRI-STATE
AREA BEFORE RUNNING OUT OF STEAM. BUT AGAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FOLKS WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SUNDAY AND
REMAIN DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS. MODELS
THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER...WITH ECMWF TAKING FRONT WELL OUT OF
CWA...WHILE GFS DROPS IT JUST SOUTH...BUT THEN BRINGS IT BACK NORTH
AS SURFACE LOW CROSSES KANSAS. BASED ON TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
PATTERN IN THE APPALACHIANS...TEND TO THINK THE OSCILLATING FRONT OF
THE GFS IS THE BETTER SOLUTION...BUT WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY...STAYED
CLOSE TO WPC FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. BLENDED WPC TEMPS INTO
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE EASTERLY FLOW CLOUD
SQUEEZE SOME MOISTURE AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE MVFR LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TO ALSO AFFECT BKN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES...CALM SFC WINDS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LESS THAN
15 KNOTS PER THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE DROPPING TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES. CONSEQUENTLY...LIKE THE IDEA OF KEEPING IFR
CONDITIONS UNDER DENSE FOG CONFINED ALONG THE DEEPER PROTECTED
VALLEYS SUCH AS CRW...EKN AND CKB TOWARDS 12Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR
MIST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST PLACES THROUGH 12-13Z.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AFTER 13Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND INTENSITY OF RIVER AND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...AND MVFR CEILINGS ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/31/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
151 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY.
COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NECESSARY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY
WAS PUSHING WESTWARD INTO OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...WINDS BECOME NE/E...TEMPERATURES FALL AND DEWPOINTS
RISE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS
WERE SEEN.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
WEST...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST IT WILL GO. THE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN THE MOIST COOL AIR FLOWING UP THE EASTERN SLOPES...
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST IS GENERALLY IN SYNC WITH THIS THINKING...SO ONLY TWEAKS
WERE MADE.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND DO NOT SEE ANY
REAL NEED TO MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN JUST AN AFTERNOON SHOWER TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXITING FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE...ITS
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THRU SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE OHIO AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH SOME COOL
ADVECTION IN THE GENERALLY EAST FLOW...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
AND DOWNSLOPING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR THE LOW LANDS
SATURDAY. BUT IT WILL BE COOLER AT NIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIR...LACK
OF CLOUDS...AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL WELL
DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME RIVER AND VALLEY FOG AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY
BE THE LIGHT AND STILL MOIST LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW THAT COULD BRING
IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD BREAK UP RATHER QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS LOW LEVEL
WINDS TURN FROM EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE. THAT COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE
LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BY BLENDING IN BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF TO HIGHS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS. MODELS
THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER...WITH ECMWF TAKING FRONT WELL OUT OF
CWA...WHILE GFS DROPS IT JUST SOUTH...BUT THEN BRINGS IT BACK NORTH
AS SURFACE LOW CROSSES KANSAS. BASED ON TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
PATTERN IN THE APPALACHIANS...TEND TO THINK THE OSCILLATING FRONT OF
THE GFS IS THE BETTER SOLUTION...BUT WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY...STAYED
CLOSE TO WPC FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. BLENDED WPC TEMPS INTO
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE EASTERLY FLOW CLOUD
SQUEEZE SOME MOISTURE AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE MVFR LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TO ALSO AFFECT BKN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES...CALM SFC WINDS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LESS THAN
15 KNOTS PER THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE DROPPING TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES. CONSEQUENTLY...LIKE THE IDEA OF KEEPING IFR
CONDITIONS UNDER DENSE FOG CONFINED ALONG THE DEEPER PROTECTED
VALLEYS SUCH AS CRW...EKN AND CKB TOWARDS 12Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR
MIST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST PLACES THROUGH 12-13Z.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AFTER 13Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND INTENSITY OF RIVER AND VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...AND MVFR CEILINGS ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/31/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JSH/JMV
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE
BY MIDWEEK...WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM...AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NC
PIEDMONT EARLIER...AND ARE GRADUALLY OOZING THEIR WAY SOUTH ALONG
THE I-77 CORRIDOR. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY (TO 50-70
PERCENT) IN THESE AREAS. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL
DIMINISHMENT OF INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...SO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE AREA.
1015 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS STEADILY WANED ACRS THE FA EXCEPT
FOR A CLUSTER OF CELLS WHICH HAVE CONTINUED TO BUBBLE ALONG A LINE
FROM THE NW CORNER OF NC SEWD INTO THE PIEDMONT TRIAD. THIS SEEMS TO
BE THE FRONT...PER SFC OBS AND MSLP ANALYSIS. WHILE COVERAGE REMAINS
RATHER STEADY WITHIN THE CLUSTER...EACH NEW GENERATION APPEARS TO BE
WEAKER THAN THE LAST. HRRR NOW REDEVELOPS ACTIVITY OVER THE I-77
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NEW RUN JUST COMPLETED OF OUR LOCAL
WRF-ARW DROPS ACTIVITY STEADILY SWD THRU THE ERN HALF OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TMRW MRNG. THESE SCENARIOS ARE PLAUSIBLE THOUGH I
WONDER HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALLY LEFT GIVEN ALL THE ACTIVITY
EARLIER. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCHC OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
AS OF 230 PM FRI...ONE IS HARD-PRESSED TO IDENTIFY THE REMAINS OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE STRUNG OUT NW TO SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...SUCH THAT IT IS HARD TO SAY IF THIS FEATURE WILL
EVEN PLAY ANY ROLE IN ORGANIZING ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SUBTLE CHANGES ARE NOTED AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...WHILE THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY. THE MODELS
WANT TO KEEP SOME COVERAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE OWING TO
A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...SO THE FCST RETAINS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS DO A MORE CONCERTED EFFORT IN
IDENTIFYING A SW TO NE GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON
SATURDAY THAT REPRESENTS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT. THAT SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME IDENTIFIABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER BETWEEN NE GEORGIA
AND WESTERN SC...WHICH SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY...TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC WHICH SHOULD HAVE A STRONGER NE WIND
ADVECTING COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION
AND KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM GA AND THE CAROLINAS...TO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SE TX...AND A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW WILL BE
WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER TX
FILLS...AND THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BEHIND IT. AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP MOIST
UPSLOPE LIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...SUPPORTING CONTINUING
PRECIPITATION THERE....WHILE LINGERING INSTABILITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER INTO GA ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH DRIER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
THE CAROLINAS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS WITH COOLER SURFACE
AIR MOVING IN.
MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...ALLOWING WARM MOIST ADVECTION FORM THE GULF TO
REACH NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
SPREAD EAST AS A RESULT...AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AS THE COOLER AIR MASS SETTLE
IN...UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN WARM ADVECTION ENSUES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
DEAMPLIFIED PATTERN...WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...
AND MOORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE REMNANTS
OF A COLD FRONT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTOLYTIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION LONG BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY LEAVES THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER DRYING BEHIND IT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER PERSISTING IN
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR MID SUMMER NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE TERMINAL ARE
LIKELY TO PASS OVER THE AIRFIELD AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
AND A TEMPO FOR SUCH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. TOYED WITH THE NOTION OF
ADDING AN IFR VISBY TO THE TEMPO...BUT SHOWERS ARE TRENDING DOWN IN
INTENSITY...SO HAVE OPTED FOR MVFR FOR THE TIME BEING. DID INCLUDE A
TEMPO FOR AN IFR CIG BETWEEN 09-12Z THIS MORNING...AS IMPROVING
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING IN AREA OF IFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL NC TOWARD KCLT BY SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WHILE A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE NC PIEDMONT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT NE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER NIGHT OF CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY OWING
TO VERY MOIST ENVIRONS WITHIN A REGIME MARKED BY VERY SUBTLE
FEATURES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH AN MVFR FORECAST AT MOST
TERMINALS...BUT WITH GENEROUS USE OF TEMPOS FOR IFR/LIFR IN
LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED FRIDAY (KHKY/KGSP/KAND). IN
FACT...KHKY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED A LIFR CIG...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...OWING TO A WEAK E/SE
UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...DIDN/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
CATEGORICAL OCCURRENCE. AT KAND/KGSP...STUCK WITH A 2SM WITH SCT
LIFR CLOUDS WITHIN A TEMPO...BUT WOULD NOT AT ALL RULE OUT PERIODS
OF LIFR CIGS. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL PASS NEAR KHKY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL. MORE
STABLE/DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT KHKY AND SURROUNDING AREAS
LATER THIS MORNING...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE UPSTATE SC AND NC MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS...WHERE VCTS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED.
OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL DRYING WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...
WITH MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 85% HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 87% HIGH 97% HIGH 92% HIGH 81%
KAVL MED 75% HIGH 80% HIGH 98% HIGH 95%
KHKY MED 73% MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 86% HIGH 85% HIGH 89% HIGH 85%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 84% HIGH 85% HIGH 91%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
235 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
COOLER...MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM EDT FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS LATE THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION SLOWLY WEAKENS ACROSS NW NC AND GRAYSON/CARROLL COUNTY
AREAS OF SW VA. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IF ANY LTG DETECTED IN THESE
SHOWERS LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH ANYMORE...LESS THAN AN INCH
PER HOUR...BUT MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT SOME ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CONFINED TO WILKES AND YADKIN COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF ANY REMAINING
INSTABILITY...AND HRRR DEPICTS THIS IDEA BEST...ALTHOUGH SOME
OTHER MODELS HANG TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH ENTIRE NIGHT.
SLOWLY REDUCE POPS ALL NIGHT DOWN ION FAR SW WITH ONLY A SMALL
AREAS OF SLIGHT CHC BY MORNING BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ALL
PRECIP IS GONE BY 2 OR 3AM.
BIG QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT IS AMOUNT OF STRATUS THAT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH THINK STRATUS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS PREVIOUS NIGHT AND PERHAPS LIMITED TO NEAR BLUE RIDGE AND NRV.
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON OVERALL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY FAR
WEST...BUT THINK VALLEY FOG WILL EVENTUALLY FORM AS WELL AS ALONG
BLUE RIDGE AND MUCH OF PIEDMONT AS WELL. NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR AND REDUCE SKY COVER
OVER SE WV PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. STILL EXPECTING LOW
CLOUDS TO FILL IN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND INTO ROA AND NRV AFTER
SUNSET...BUT MAY STAY RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE A LITTLE LONGER IN
FAR WEST. ISOLD SHWRS NORTH OF ROANOKE SHOULD QUICKLY DIE WITH
SUNSET...BUT SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER IN NW NC AND
AROUND GALAX TO HILLSVILLE MAY PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT SINCE
IN VICINITY OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MODELS SUGGEST WEAK
INSTABILITY LINGERS THERE INTO LATE EVENING. KEEPING ALL POPS
BELOW LIKELY BUT KEPT SOME MID CHANCE A LITTLE LONGER INTO
EVENING DOWN IN NC FOOTHILLS. SOME MINOR CONCERNS ABOUT HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THESE STORMS ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST BUT MAY
LINE UP MORE DURING EVENING. STILL...NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES...LESS THAN YESTERDAY...BUT IF THEY LINGER OVER THE
SAME AREAS FOR AWHILE...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAD AN INCH OR TWO
OF RAIN YESTERDAY...COULD BE SOME MINOR ISSUES WITH WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC BASED CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMB TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH LIS AROUND MINUS 4
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND LIFE SPAN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN SHARP CONTRAST...MARINE AMS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO ERODE AND HOLDING TEMPERATURES
DOWN. HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH SUN ANGLE AND MIXING WILL BREAK UP THE
LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED THAT
WEST EDGE OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP BEFORE SUNSET.
DECIDED TO PLAY POPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST BASICALLY WEST OF I77. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...KEPT ISOLATED SCATTERED POPS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. THE SWODY2 HAS PUSHED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY. MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT OR LIFT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE A CHALLENGE WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER. RAISED HIGHS UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DIFFUSE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE DELMARVA SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
HIGH THEN BECOMES POSITIONED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.
EXPECTING A DRY FINISH TO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY OR UNTIL THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE EAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHALLOW UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...BKN SORT OF CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SCATTERED SUNDAY. BY MONDAY TENDENCY WILL BE FOR
MODERATE CU FORMATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGS INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND HIGHER CAPE.
H85 TEMPS OF 8C IN THE VA PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND CLOSER
TO 15C ON MONDAY. SUNDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A WINNER IN TERMS
OF COMFORT FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NORTH OF THIS
RIDGE...A MORE ZONAL TYPE PATTERN WILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN CONUS...ALTHOUGH VERY NOISY...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIPPLING EAST WITHIN THE FASTER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL FAVOR A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE NORMAL...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THE PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A
DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOTHING ORGANIZED PER SE
OR LASTING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME...BUT MAINLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IF THERE IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO BEING ORGANIZED IT WILL
MOST LIKELY COME FROM SOMETHING GENERATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT...THIS
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN
THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR A SQUALL LINE. OUTSIDE OF
THIS UPSTREAM THREAT...LOCAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES IN
THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WIND
CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE GREATEST. WITH WESTERLY SORT OF WINDS
ALOFT...A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE PIEDMONT WHICH
WILL AID IN SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE TOO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART
OF THE CWA. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALSO FINALLY PUSH DRY AIR FROM THE NE AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...FOR TODAY...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BANK UP AGAINST THE ALLEGHANYS IN THE EASTERLY
MARITIME FLOW. COMPARED TO FRI...THESE CLOUDS WILL TRACK FURTHER
WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD
BLF/LWB/BCB/DAN BUT WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR TOWARD
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH FOG THIS
MORNING AS FRI EITHER...WITH AREAS OF MVFR VIS IN BR THROUGH
14Z...WITH PATCHY IFR BR MAINLY LWB THROUGH 14Z. WINDS NE-SE
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 5-7KTS
TO AROUND 8-10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NE U.S.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE NEXT CHANCE AT SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNS BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/SK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING
ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
OCCASIONALLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OVERALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT
INLAND...WITH OCCASIONAL NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS SET OFF A THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT ADAMS...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LIGHTNING DETECTION IMAGERY
SHOWS QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OUT OF THIS...MAINLY IN KLICKITAT
AND YAKIMA COUNTIES...BUT A COUPLE IN SKAMANIA COUNTY AS WELL. THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE E-SE
TODAY...BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE CASCADES MOUNT HOOD NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
OVERALL TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH DECIDEDLY ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BUT A WARM AIR MASS ALOFT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER WRN CANADA INTO THE PAC NW IS PROMOTING THIS ONSHORE
FLOW. HOWEVER AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...GOOD MIXING ALONG WITH 850
MB TEMPS AROUND +10 DEG C SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL INLAND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ANY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD RETREAT TO THE COAST BY MIDDAY...
WITH PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SAME OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER...KEEPING FLOW ONSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE 70S. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
GATHER ALONG THE COAST...KEEPING THEM CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES FOR HIGHS.
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY RETREAT TO THE COAST BY
MIDDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY...THOUGH
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE CASCADE CREST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FROM OUR CURRENT PATTERN WELL INTO THE COMING
WEEK. IT APPEARS FLOW ALOFT TURNS ANTICYCLONIC BY TUE AFTERNOON...
WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT CAPPING ANY INSTABILITY. THUS WE DECIDED TO
REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE CASCADES TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OUR CURRENT WEAK UPPER TROUGH JUST GETS
REPLACED BY ANOTHER BY THURSDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT W-NW FLOW ALOFT TO
PERSIST...WITH NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS TO BRING A THREAT OF MUCH MORE
THAN AREAS OF COASTAL DRIZZLE. SFC PRES GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
DECIDEDLY ONSHORE...KEEPING INLAND TEMPS FROM GETTING MUCH MORE THAN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PERSISTENT COASTAL LOW CLOUDS MAY SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT BURN BACK TO THE COAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LEAVING PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS
ALONG THE N AND CENTRAL OREGON COASTLINE. INCREASING MVFR ALONG
THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL RIVER DRAINAGES
AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR THESE
CLOUDS WILL PENETRATE INLAND...BUT LOCAL MVFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE OVER THE SW WA LOWLANDS AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TO KPDX AND VICINITY. /27
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL AND VICINITY
AROUND 13Z. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM WILL DISSIPATE BY 17Z.
WEISHAAR
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC HOLDING FIRM...AND WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GFS MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
SURFACE FEATURES WELL. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 25
KT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
NAM AND GFS INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT WIND SPEEDS 18Z TODAY THROUGH
06Z SUN. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS A BIT MORE TO THE S
SAT AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY. THUS...THE S WA WATERS MAY NOT
ACHIEVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS.
THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE LONGER PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEAS TO BE RELATIVELY STEEP AND
CHOPPY AS WIND WAVES/FRESH SWELL LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE WA
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN FRESH NW SWELL PUSHING 10 FT
BY TUE. WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1030 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will undergo a warming trend this weekend.
Many areas will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. The majority
of the region will remain dry through the middle of next week.
However, the mountainous regions of north Idaho and northern
Washington will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon through mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Scattered thunderstorm activity that has been
mainly be confined to Kittitas and Yakima counties but is
starting to drift northward into southern Chelan County. There
have not been any strikes observed in Chelan County but a few
cells near the crest could still strengthen over the next hour.
With the sun setting, the main threat with this activity will
transition to isolated showers. Latest HRRR is doing well with
the placement of this activity and takes it to the northeast while
falling apart upon reaching southern Okanogan County. Consequently,
a few light showers are expected to pass through Wenatchee...
Waterville Plateau...and eastern reaches of Chelan County over
the next few hours then wane by 06z.
The next feature of note is a midlevel circulation that came from
northern CA and is driving thunderstorms across Central Oregon.
Clouds and any shower activity with this feature will spread into
SE WA and the lower ID Panhandle between 6-12z. A few light
showers will be possible but once again, the threat for thunder is
low (not entirely impossible) but too low to differ from the
dayshifts thoughts which advertised showers over thunderstorms.
I did spread the threat for sprinkles and light showers northward
into Pullman/Lewiston and increased cloud cover. This also lead to
raising overnight temperatures for most locations south of line
from Mullan to La Crosse. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all terminals through 06z
Sat. The sct t-storm activity that was over the Cascades has waned
to showers. Steering flow will drift the convective debris and a
some sprinkles over KEAT at times. A second cluster of elevated
showers tracking NE through Oregon is currently near KPDT. This
activity is also expected to weaken and only bring the threat
for increased clouds and a few light showers in the vcnty of
KLWS/KPUW. Aft 20z...aftn heating and presence of upper-low over
the region will renew the threat for -shra and isold -tsra mainly
across the mtns but with the best instability focusing in the ID
Panhandle and Blue Mtns...may see a few -shra vcnty KLWS/KPUW. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 78 51 79 53 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 48 78 48 78 50 80 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Pullman 49 77 46 77 48 81 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 55 84 53 84 55 88 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Colville 45 78 48 80 50 84 / 10 20 10 10 10 10
Sandpoint 45 77 45 78 47 80 / 0 20 20 10 10 10
Kellogg 47 75 48 75 50 80 / 10 30 20 10 10 10
Moses Lake 49 84 52 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 53 84 59 86 61 88 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 43 82 51 85 53 87 / 10 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
843 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
DISTURBANCE EJECTING ACROSS THE WRN SLOPE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST
ACROSS NW COLORADO...POORLY RESOLVED BY MOST HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS. APPEARS THE TREND FOR TODAY WILL BE DRIER AIR FOLLOWING
THIS DISTURBANCE...EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION. THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY BE OCCURRING THIS MORNING
HOURS...BUT DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG THE COLORADO
SPINE.
THE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER EVENING DISTURBANCE CROSSING NE
UTAH INTO NW COLORADO THAT COULD SPAWN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL IF THE INCOMING
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES AS SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW ALLOWING SOME QUICK SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS TO FIRE
BEFORE QUICKLY SCOOTING OFF TO THE EAST. THE HRRR IS DOING FAIRLY
WELL PICKING UP ON THIS CONVECTION SO FOLLOWED THIS GUIDANCE WITH
MOST CONVECTION DYING DOWN NEAR SUNRISE THOUGH AN ODD CELL OR TWO
MAY REMAIN...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FROM NOON ONWARDS. PWATS
REMAIN HIGH WITH INSTABILITY AND CAPE FAVORING HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITH FORECAST FOLLOWING SUIT. ATTM...MODELS FAVORING THE FLATTOPS
AND CENTRAL MTNS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE A BIT MORE THAN THAT.
THOSE AREAS THAT SEE THESE STORMS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE SEPARATING FROM
THE LEFT COAST THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...PULLING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL FOCUS MAINLY TO
OUR NORTH. HOWEVER ADDED LIFT WILL COME FROM THE INDIRECT
CIRCULATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET NOSING INTO UTAH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH THE BETTER FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
KEEP THINGS MILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE WANING
BY SUNRISE WITH ONLY HIGH BASED WEAK SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND KEEP RIVERS RUNNING STRONG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAJA BULGES
NORTHWARD INTO THE 4 CORNERS AREA. THIS EFFECTIVELY CUTS OFF A
MOISTURE TAP AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY WARMING A FEW DEGREES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT PUSHING THE NEXT
PACIFIC LOW INTO CALIFORNIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ALOFT AND BRING MORE AFTERNOON BREEZINESS ALONG
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE SUBTROPICAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORECAST
MOISTURE REMAINS LOW WITH LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP INCREASING
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. AFTER
THAT...THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH GETS FLATTENED...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER LEAVING ERN UT/WRN CO TO
DEAL WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WITH
LITTLE UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND MEAGER MOISTURE...AN OCCNL
SHOWER/STORM MAY POP UP HERE OR THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME STORMS DRIFTING OVER
NEARBY VALLEYS. MTN TAF SITES LOOK TO BE UNDER THE GUN TODAY
INCLUDING KEGE...KASE...AND KTEX THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL FORM ON-STATION. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WITH STORMS THAT FORM. SOME
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION
WITH RIVERS AND STREAMS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH OR INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOW INCREASES. THE
HIGHEST FLOWS ARE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE
GUNNISON BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING
BORDER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. THAT BEING SAID...ALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS THE FORECAST WILL BE RUNNING FAST AND STRONG THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING
DOWN OR RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...TGR/15
LONG TERM...15/TGR
AVIATION...TGR
HYDROLOGY...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1036 AM EDT Sat May 31 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Showers and thunderstorms this morning over the Gulf of Mexico
have mostly dissipated, except for a few lingering showers just
west of Panama City as of 14Z. Therefore, most of the forecast
area was experiencing dry conditions with a mixture of low-mid
level cloud decks and sunshine. Overall, there is very little
difference between the 12Z sounding taken this morning from
Tallahassee, and the one taken 24 hours ago. Light E-SE flow
continues in the lower troposphere, with fairly light flow aloft.
Recent runs of the 3km HRRR as well as the 09Z run of our 4km WRF-
ARW appear to be modeling ongoing conditions fairly well. Both
show the most concentrated initial convective development between
17Z and 19Z in the Apalachicola River basin as well as the eastern
Florida Big Bend near the Suwannee River. They also both show
activity in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend diminishing around
22Z, with the 22-04Z time frame being dominated by larger
convective clusters in southwest Georgia. This would make sense
with lighter E-SE 1000-700mb flow as thunderstorms along the
Atlantic sea breeze and inland Florida peninsula trough should
progress into eastern parts of the area closer to sunset, and
possibly combine with previous inland development in C/SC GA.
Given that these models have verified well so far, and the
similarities in evolution to what occurred yesterday, we have
tweaked the forecast to follow that general timeline. The
inherited forecast, however, already described that fairly well.
Highs should be around 90 degrees - warmest in SW Georgia.
&&
.Prev Discussion [257 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The upper low west of the region will gradually but steadily fill
as it drops south into the western Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Sunday. Mesoscale processes, including the sea breeze, will provide
the primary forcing for convection and PoP distribution, typical
of summertime. The east coast sea breeze will once again
concentrate evening convection primarily across our Southwest GA
zones. Look for fairly evenly scattered convection on Sunday with
PoPs around 50 as PWs remain elevated around 2 inches. As surface
high pressure builds further down the eastern seaboard on Monday,
our 1000-700 mb winds will become light out of the east across our
eastern zones while southeasterly winds persist further west. In
addition, drier air will build in from the east pushing PWs below
1.5 inches in that region. This should reduce convective coverage,
particularly across our eastern zones. Temperatures will be close
to seasonal norms.
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The upper level low will slide off the west as the upper level ridge
moves east toward the Carolinas. Winds from the southeast will bring
moisture from the Gulf increasing the chance for showers. Better
chance for afternoon and evening sea breeze thunderstorms Monday
and Tuesday. Temperatures will be near climatology with highs in
the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s.
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday] Low ceilings and MVFR fog should overspread
at least VLD, and possibly TLH and ABY over the next few hours.
All terminals will return to VFR shortly after sunrise. Expect
showers and thunderstorms at ECP and VLD, earlier in the day at
ECP and towards mid to late afternoon at VLD. This evening,
showers and thunderstorms should reach TLH and possibly ABY.
Expect VFR to prevail today outside of thunderstorms.
.Marine...
Winds will generally be out of the east-southeast over the next
several days, veering to more directly onshore near the coast each
afternoon in the sea breeze. A ridge of high pressure will build
down the eastern seaboard and the gradient will become tight enough
for an easterly surge event Sunday night, which is now expected to
bring cautionary level winds and seas to the waters. As the ridge
settles further south, the gradient will weaken allowing winds and
seas to subside for the early part of the work week.
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.
.Hydrology...
With a summertime pattern well established across the region,
large scale flooding is not anticipated. As on most summer days,
isolated areas of heavy rain will be possible in some
thunderstorms. These may briefly produce flooding in poor drainage
areas and could cause sharp rises on the faster responding small
creeks and streams. Main stem rivers are expected to remain in
their banks.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 89 69 88 68 88 / 40 40 50 40 30
Panama City 84 72 86 72 86 / 60 20 50 40 40
Dothan 89 69 89 68 88 / 40 40 50 40 30
Albany 90 69 87 66 88 / 70 60 50 30 20
Valdosta 91 68 90 65 90 / 70 50 50 20 20
Cross City 88 68 88 67 88 / 60 40 50 30 30
Apalachicola 84 72 86 73 85 / 30 20 40 40 30
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1030 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONSISTING OF AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW OVER TOP A STUBBORN CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN MS
VALLEY. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW RIDGES WAY TO THE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA BEFORE SHARPLY DIVING SOUTH INTO A
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT. PLENTY OF CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...HOWEVER THIS MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN SOME "BLOW-OFF" CIRRUS
INVADING OUR SKIES.
THE MORNING 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS WE HAVE A MOIST PROFILE THROUGH
THE EXTENT OF THE TROP WITH A MEASURED PW VALUES AROUND 1.75".
STEERING LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 400MB IS VERY VERY LIGHT (VECTOR AVERAGE
IS JUST A SLIGHT PUSH FROM EAST TO WEST)...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORM MOTION
VECTORS ARE MAYBE 5-10KNOTS FROM EAST TO WEST...SO WILL BE LOOKING
FOR SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS LATER TODAY. OVERALL CAPE WITH THE MOIST
SOUNDING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH (AT LEAST NOT TOO FAT A PROFILE
THROUGH ANY ONE LEVEL)...HOWEVER THE HIGH PW VALUE WILL FAVOR
EFFICIENT WATER LOADING OF THE STRONG CELLS WHICH WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE FORECAST FOR YET
ANOTHER DAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING A WEAK EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS THIS RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE LOCAL GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND
RESULT IN SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE
THE STRUCTURE AND PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORMS THAT WE HAVE BECOME
ACCUSTOMED TO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BUT..THAT IS
TOMORROW...LETS TALK MORE ABOUT TODAY.
THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR A QUICK INLAND PENETRATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE. EXPECT TO SEE A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND UP THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY EVOLVE/TRANSLATE TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
COLUMN SEEMS PRIMED FOR STORM COVERAGE TO AGAIN BE NUMEROUS IN
NATURE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR...AND THINK STORMS WILL HAVE AN
EASIER TIME MOVING WEST TO THE COAST TODAY (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
SLOW). AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WATER LOADING OF THE STRONG CELLS WILL
STILL PROVIDE A LOCALIZED WIND THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND INSIDE
THE I-75 CORRIDOR (AFTER 3-4PM) WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FOCUS
FOR THE BEST UPDRAFTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE...AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY RUN WRFARW GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS...AND FEEL CONFIDENT WITH THE CURRENT 60-70% POPS IN THE
GRIDS ALONG THE FAVORED ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE.
LEFTOVER STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING LATER THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE TYPICAL WARM
SEASON CALM PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
SUNRISE.
&&
.MID TERM (SUNDAY-MONDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT STEADILY SOUTHWARD TO A LOCATION OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PROPEL A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUING TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY
EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ON SUNDAY...SO WILL
CARRY HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIPS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. AS A RESULT...WILL SHOW
POPS RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO 50/60
PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS OFFERING UP VARYING SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIODS...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN BOTH SHOW STRONGER DEEP
LAYER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AND AS A RESULT THEY KEEP THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND OUT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE TO HANG UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEK. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AWAY FROM SCT-NMRS
SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR MANY OF THE TERMINALS
TO SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING STORM...BUT THE
DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT. STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE
AFTER MID EVENING WITH VFR GENERAL VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO ALL THE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER INLAND AREAS WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE EACH DAY...BRINGING DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEFLY
ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES TO THE WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH
HEADLINE CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A THE EFFECTS OF A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLY SURGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASE TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 74 90 73 / 60 30 70 20
FMY 91 72 91 73 / 60 20 60 20
GIF 90 72 89 71 / 60 20 50 10
SRQ 89 73 91 73 / 60 30 70 30
BKV 89 69 90 70 / 60 30 60 10
SPG 87 75 89 75 / 60 30 70 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA
MARINE...LEWIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
921 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE OVER OREGON THIS MORNING
WILL BE THE NEXT MAIN PLAYER FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP/RUC THIS MORNING SHOWING VARYING AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. HRRR IN FAVOR OF HOLDING OFF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND NOT QUITE
WHERE THE OTHER MODELS ARE PLACING THE BEST INSTABILITY. CLOUD
DECK MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF OREGON SHORTWAVE COULD BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS
TODAY...WITH CURRENT BEST INSTABILITY IN THE CLEARING OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS A BLEND OF THE
SIGNALS...AND CURRENT GRIDS PLAY THIS OUT FAIRLY WELL.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LOW WITH DRY SOUNDINGS SO SMALL HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS BEST THREAT FOR TODAY. NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STORM NUMBER 1 WILL
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY TOMORROW. WE
ARE ALREADY SEE SOME MOISTURE WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR NOW THOUGH...IT APPEARS THIS IS ALL MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND VIRGA. YOU CAN EXPECT PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES
AND GUSTY WINDS OUT OF ANYTHING BEFORE NOON. AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS
FAR WESTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON...AN BIG UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THIS IS WHEN WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...AGAIN
ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS OVER 40MPH AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER
STORMS. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT ANY BIG THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS...BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS
BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE DUE TO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. FOR
TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS
AS WELL AS THE UPPER PLAIN. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE STORM
SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS ANY REAL STORM THREAT WILL BE
NORTH OF A HAILEY TO ALPINE, WYOMING LINE. SOME STORMS WILL BE
STRONG...BUT NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT STILL LOOKING AT 70S FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. FOR THOSE HEADING INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY...50S
AND 60S ARE ON TAP DURING THE DAY. AT NIGHT...SOME HIGHER PEAKS
AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DIP TO NEAR 35 DEGREES SO MAKE SURE YOU
ARE PREPARED. KEYES
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES ASHORE ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY POPS UP OVER IDAHO.
THIS WILL PUSH SOME FOLKS BACK UP INTO THE LOW 80S. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE THOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. WE ARE
LOOKING AT 1-2 PUNCH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY WAVE NUMBER 2. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
STORM ACTUALLY SPLITS AND WE ARE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE SPLIT. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH THIS
PATTERN VS THE GFS. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS FOR BOTH
DAYS. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW A LARGER SYSTEM
SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN U.S. IT
LOOKS EASTERN IDAHO WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN END...WHICH WOULD
PUT HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL STILL BE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
SOME FLUCTUATION LIKELY DUE TO CLOUD COVER. LOWS WON`T BE TOO BAD
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER PEAKS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE WE WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES TRYING TO DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING SOME MORNINGS. KEYES
AVIATION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
WASHINGTON WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY LATE THIS MORNING IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KSUN AND AREAS NEAR THE MONTANA AND
IDAHO BORDER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT KIDA...KPIH AND
KBYI AFTER 20Z. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE OVER SOUTHEAST
IDAHO TONIGHT. SOME RESPECTABLE COLD AIR ALOFT...LAPSE RATES REMAIN
STEEP PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A
CONCERN PARTICULARLY AT KSUN AND KIDA. RS
FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THIS MORNING WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO OVER NIGHT TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND
SUN VALLEY TO STANLEY AND TOWARDS MONIDA PASS BY LATE THIS MORNING.
BEST LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE TARGHEE FOREST AREA ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE PAST MIDNIGHT WITH THE
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE .01 TO .07 RANGE...VERY ISOLATED CELLS PRODUCING CLOSE TO .10
INCH. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FLOW PATTERN BECOMES WESTERLY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND TARGHEE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TODAY...THEN 5 TO 7
DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY. RS
HYDROLOGY...CONDITIONS ON VALLEY CREEK AROUND STANLEY ARE
STEADILY IMPROVING THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES WILL BE THE TETON RIVER BASIN. THE TETON RIVER AT ST.
ANTHONY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE BANKFULL AFTER TODAY AND REMAIN
THERE. THE TETON RIVER AROUND DRIGGS SHOULD PEAK JUST BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT SOME OF THE CREEKS COMING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER WILL BE RUNNING PRETTY HIGH. KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
842 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOW DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE SAME AREA CO-LOCATED WITH THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES NORTHWARD TAKING THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
IT. HOWEVER WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
1/3 AHEAD OF A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES THERE. TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CAUSING THE CINH TO INCREASE SO
WILL ALLOW PRECIP. CHANCES TO DECLINE AS A RESULT. MEANWHILE
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHERE A DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. WITH LIFT INCREASING OVER THE WEST AS THE DRY LINE
MOVES IN AND 700-500MB MIXING RATIOS ALSO INCREASING...AM THINKING
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE DRY LINE. WILL HAVE HIGHER
PRECIP. CHANCES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSES LOW STILL
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SW FLOW
EXTENDING OVER A LONG FETCH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. AT
THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO JUST WEST OF THE
KS/CO STATE LINE. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY MATCHING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT/ACTIVE PATTERN AS SW FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND A LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
AND TD VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 60F WILL ALSO LINGER.
I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANY
PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING DOES GENERALLY FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WHILE CAPE PROFILES COULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE SHORT
TERM...THE BEST SHEER IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN ORGANIZED
SUPER CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST).
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON (IF NAM SOLUTION WORKS OUT)...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. I BUMPED UP POPS/WINDS
(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY)...AND ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. I CONSIDERED DOING THE SAME FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER I AM LESS CONFIDENT ON MONDAYS PATTERN AT THIS
POINT. STILL WORTH MONITORING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH MID-WEEK TO DROP TEMPS DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM WEST
TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC. ALL GLOBAL
GUIDANCE IS IN SOLD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASPECT. A WEAK POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FINE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE STRENGTH/TIMING
IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT ON THE WHOLE THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE...PROBABLY
BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT AND A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ON
LATER IN THE WEEK.
TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH
850MB TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S C...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN THE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA /TRIBUNE AND LEOTI/ APPROACHING
TRIPE DIGITS. A STRONG DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE BEST ALONG/NORTH OF
I-70...THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM DESPITE DEW
POINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE LATE
TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT CAP HOLDING AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE LIMITATIONS SO
WILL KEEP POPS SUB-50 PERCENT FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOLER TEMPS.
SOME BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE
ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COLORADO MOVING NORTHEAST COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. LIMITED CAPE WILL PREVENT STRONG T-STORMS. CHANCE FOR RAIN
INCREASES THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN
FROM THE EAST SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER
THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF KGLD. KMCK IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
SHOWERS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING...WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED THUNDER (THOUGH THIS CANT BE RULED
OUT). BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE REGION.
I ADDED VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AS LIFR CIGS HAVE BE OCCURRING OFF AND ON
ALL MORNING AT KGLD... AND NEARBY OB AT KITR SHOWS VIS 1/4SM. THIS
DENSE FOG HAS YET TO REACH KGLD WHERE VIS HAS REMAINED IN THE
4-7SM RANGE. GUIDANCE IS DOING A POOR JOB OF HANDLING THE GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER NIGHT PRECIP POOLING ALONG SURFACE FRONT
IN EASTERN COLORADO. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP GOING AT KGLD THIS
MORNING FOR CURRENT CIG/VIS TRENDS LOCALLY...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF VIS BEGINS TO DETERIORATE. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW
RIGHT NOW IN VIS FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
529 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSES LOW STILL
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SW FLOW
EXTENDING OVER A LONG FETCH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. AT
THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY EXTENDING FROM
NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO JUST WEST OF THE
KS/CO STATE LINE. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY MATCHING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT/ACTIVE PATTERN AS SW FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND A LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
AND TD VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 60F WILL ALSO LINGER.
I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANY
PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING DOES GENERALLY FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WHILE CAPE PROFILES COULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE SHORT
TERM...THE BEST SHEER IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST).
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON (IF NAM SOLUTION WORKS OUT)...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. I BUMPED UP POPS/WINDS
(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY)...AND ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. I CONSIDERED DOING THE SAME FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER I AM LESS CONFIDENT ON MONDAYS PATTERN AT THIS
POINT. STILL WORTH MONITORING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH MID-WEEK TO DROP TEMPS DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM WEST
TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC. ALL GLOBAL
GUIDANCE IS IN SOLD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASPECT. A WEAK POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FINE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE STRENGTH/TIMING
IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT ON THE WHOLE THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE...PROBABLY
BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT AND A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ON
LATER IN THE WEEK.
TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH
850MB TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S C...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN THE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA /TRIBUNE AND LEOTI/ APPROACHING
TRIPE DIGITS. A STRONG DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE BEST ALONG/NORTH OF
I-70...THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM DESPITE DEW
POINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE LATE
TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT CAP HOLDING AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE LIMITATIONS SO
WILL KEEP POPS SUB-50 PERCENT FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOLER TEMPS.
SOME BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE
ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COLORADO MOVING NORTHEAST COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. LIMITED CAPE WILL PREVENT STRONG T-STORMS. CHANCE FOR RAIN
INCREASES THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN
FROM THE EAST SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER
THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF KGLD. KMCK IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
SHOWERS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING...WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED THUNDER (THOUGH THIS CANT BE RULED
OUT). BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE REGION.
I ADDED VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AS LIFR CIGS HAVE BE OCCURRING OFF AND ON
ALL MORNING AT KGLD... AND NEARBY OB AT KITR SHOWS VIS 1/4SM. THIS
DENSE FOG HAS YET TO REACH KGLD WHERE VIS HAS REMAINED IN THE
4-7SM RANGE. GUIDANCE IS DOING A POOR JOB OF HANDLING THE GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER NIGHT PRECIP POOLING ALONG SURFACE FRONT
IN EASTERN COLORADO. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP GOING AT KGLD THIS
MORNING FOR CURRENT CIG/VIS TRENDS LOCALLY...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF VIS BEGINS TO DETERIORATE. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW
RIGHT NOW IN VIS FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
735 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE TENDRILS OF FOG
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS RIGHT
ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW NUDGES PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
BRINGING A DRIER AIR MASS TO THAT PART OF THE STATE. ON SATELLITE...A
WISP OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THIS TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS
DRIER AIR AND THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST...TOO...BUT MAINLY A
RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE IS NOTED THERE AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE VARIES MORE BROADLY WITH LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS FOUND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHILE MID 50S ARE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
ONE DEEP CLOSED LOW IS MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND
ANOTHER WEAKER ONE FILLING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN
TIME...THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING ALL THE ENERGY
NORTH AND WEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE RIDGE DOES WEAKEN QUICKLY...
THOUGH...AS IT SINKS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BIT MORE MID LEVEL ENERGY TO SEEP INTO KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE
SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...
BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY...QUIET...
AND WARM DAY UNDER RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW MORE
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SEEPS BACK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES LOCATED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT/ALL AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS. DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE TONIGHT FOR
MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LATER SUNDAY THROUGH THE CWA...OTHERWISE
KEPT THEM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH A LOT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION DURING THE EXTENDED. STARTING AT 0Z MONDAY...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...AND A
LOW OVER LOUISIANA CONTINUING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. BEING WEDGED
BETWEEN THE TWO...THE FLOW ACROSS KY WILL FEATURE WARM MOIST
SOUTHERN AIR OFF THE GULF. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO STRETCH
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
DECENT LIFT AND A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD. DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BRING CONVECTION TO MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE
CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF TO THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NE. THIS
INCLUDES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL RUN HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR EASTERN KY...BEING ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE BEST
CONVECTION. EXPECT BY 0Z MONDAY...THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
BUT DYING OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAISED POPS BOTH SUNDAY
/SHORT TERM/ AND SUNDAY EVENING FROM PREVIOUS.
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE HUMID CONDITIONS BUT DYING
CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER RAMP UP FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED SEWARD...EDGING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND ALLOWING THE BEST MOISTURE FLOW TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL...PUTTING MUCH OF KY INTO THE MOIST
UNSTABLE FLOW. BY 12Z TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE
STATE...BRINGING LIKELY POPS INTO EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON THE EXACT TIMING OF ENTRANCE AND EXIT ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT LACKING...BUT EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE PEAK OF THE
AFTERNOON...THEN GET CUT OFF BY DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING OVERNIGHT.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
SECONDARY FRONT DEVELOPING AND FOLLOWING IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF ITS
PREDECESSOR...BRINGING YET ANOTHER BOUGHT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OVERALL MODEL UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND SET UP
WILL LEAD TO STICKING CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD. ANOTHER...WEAKER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY.
AT THIS POINT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW AND PRECIP
MOVING JUST NORTH OF KY...WITH SOME WARRANTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE GFS...WHICH THE ALLBLEND
LEANS MORE HEAVILY ON...SHOWS THIS LOW PASSING THROUGH THE
STATE...AND BRINGING A GOOD DUMP OF PRECIP ONCE MORE THURSDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON HEATING AND
PROXIMITY TO INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT
WITH THE CHANCE POPS THAT WERE GIVEN.
A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...THOUGH STILL RATHER
UNDETERMINED...WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...OR MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED CONVECTION. ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE WARRANTS LEANING
TOWARDS THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
WITH NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RATHER UNIFORM. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND DROP INTO
THE 60S OVERNIGHT. KEPT WITH A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...AS EVEN THE IMPACTING FRONTS SHOULD CORRELATE WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR LOWER VALLEY FOG
AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING...SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHERE THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LOWEST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 13Z...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR MORE MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A RENEWED PICKUP
IN MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
848 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
848 AM UPDATE...THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM THE
NE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. DEW
POINTS WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
30S THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. THE LAST OF THE STRATUS ALONG COASTAL
WASHINGTON COUNTY SHOULD LIFT WITHIN THE HOUR. AS POINTED OUT BY
THE MIDNIGHT CREW THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS
SMALL...BUT THE HRRR DOES INDICATE A COUPLE OF VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. AT THIS TIME
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH HAS
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE
SUN RISES TODAY, BUT EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AND CLOUDS
DECREASE AS THE MORNING GOES ON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER
NORTHEAST MAINE, BUT OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER MAINE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY BE
CENTERED. COULD BE SOME FROST BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL. OPTED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORIES FOR NOW, BUT SOME MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY MORNING AND RIDGES NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM THEN DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE
BLENDED THE NAM ...GFS ...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR SKY
USED THE NAM ...GFS AND ECMWF. FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAVE USED
THE GMOS. TEMPERATURE FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
EVENING THEN NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPPER
BLEND TO INITIALIZED ALL GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THE LOW STRATUS AND PATCH FOG IS VERY RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR
VFR BY 14Z. VFR CONTINUES TON.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR
WAVES: LOW PRESSURE PERSIST OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTO LATE MONDAY. FLOW TO THE NORTH
OF THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING NORTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM
2-3 FEET BUILDING TO 3-4 FEET/8-9 SECONDS. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY
SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES AROUND 1-2 FEET/9-11 SECONDS. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT THESE WAVE
SYSTEMS TO PREDOMINATE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FOISY
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/FOISY/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/FOISY/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
614 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO SKY...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS
UPDATE. FOG AND STRATUS ARE STILL MOVING ALONG THE COAST AND THE
INTERIOR. SHOWERS ARE FILLING IN SLIGHTLY FROM RANGELEY TO NORTH
CONWAY AND TO CONCORD AND MOVING WEST.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MESOLOW CENTER NEAR
MOOSEHEAD LAKE. LATEST HRRR FORECAST HAS THIS FEATURE DRIFTING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT WITH
THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND ALSO OFFSHORE AND NEAR BOSTON...
WHICH IS ALREADY OCCURRING. AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES ... MORE
SHOWERS WILL ERUPT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CHANCE
COVERAGE OVER ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH NOON OR SO BEFORE FORCING
DISAPPEARS. SAID FORCING IS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT WILL SERVE TO CUT OFF THE UPPER LOW JUST
OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WASH OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND DEW
POINTS AND WINDS TAKE A NOSE DIVE. PW VALUES DROP TO ABOUT THE 15%
PERCENTILE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY FOSTER CONDITIONS FOR FOG BUT ALSO
FROST. THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORED LOW SPOTS WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING. FROST WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL
BE ADDRESSED IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE LATER TODAY. FREEZING
FOG MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE PRODUCING SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS.
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SUNDAY WILL START OUT CHILLY BUT THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE
BY THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
WESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S EVEN CLOSER TO THE COAST ON MONDAY. LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY SOME SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DOWN INTO
MAINE.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WEATHER.
BY TUESDAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST...
BRINGING A COOLER MARINE INFLUENCE ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SO IN SPITE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL EXISTING
ALOFT... THE WARM AIR WILL NOT BE FULLY FELT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
MOST OF MAINE AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
60S. FURTHER WEST... MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARD JAMES BAY IN
CANADA... AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY EXIST A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA... WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT LATER THIS
MORNING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GUSTY N TO NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A MOIST EAST OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY BRING LOWER CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS KEEPS CONDITIONS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL. FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 5+ FT
SWELLS MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT THAT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE THIS HIGH.
EVEN SO... THE LONG PERIOD WILL LIKELY MAKE THE IMPACT OF THESE
WAVES FAIRLY MINOR AND AN ADVISORY WILL NOT LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST.
LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAIN SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP TO NEAR 25-35% BY
THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
HANES/KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
624 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FG FORCING IS SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST AND HOLDING TOGETHER WHILE THE SOUTHERN END
SPREADING EASTWARD IN COVERAGE...SOON TO MERGE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF SD. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ALONG THIS
NORTHERN BAND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO HAS KICKED OUT INTO PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA AND WILL ARRIVE
OVER SOUTHERN CWA BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT TO INTERACT WITH SFC BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHEN
SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA. 06Z GFS NOW
SHOWING TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS (ONE ALONG SFC BNDRY AND OTHER ALONG
MID LEVEL FG BOUNDARY)...AS WELL AS LATEST HRRR AND 06Z NAM. ALSO
HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN GFK AND DVL...AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN ND. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE PLACEMENT OF
REDEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CURRENT
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED OR SHIFTED TO THE EAST AS H850 LLJ TURNS
MORE WESTERLY AND WEAKENS BY 12Z. THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY IS
GENERALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE OVER RED LAKE ND WESTERN POLK COUNTY...BUT THE MAIN
FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY WILL BE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. OVERALL MODELS TARGET SERN HALF OF CWA BUT
EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS STILL QUITE VARIABLE. THROUGH
18Z...GENERALLY WILL FOLLOW THE 4KM WRF AND A MODEL BLEND FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TODAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN SD WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND UP INTO
WADENA...POLK...OTTER TAIL AND GRANT COUNTIES. DO EXPECT DRY AREA
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CARRINGTON-LAKOTA- CAVALIER LINE TO FILL
IN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND...AS BAND OF MID
LEVEL FG FORCING SHIFTS EAST (AND AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH).
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK AND BEST CHANCE FOR
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE THERE REMAINS SOME LLJ INFLUENCE. BEYOND 18Z MODELS VARY
ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIP. OVERALL PREFER A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH
KEEPS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHERN VALLEY FAIRLY DRY.
TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY OVER NORTHWESTERN HALF OF CWA AND
CHALLENGE WILL BE PLACEMENT OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO VARY ON LOCATION. GFS ACTUALLY DRIES OUT MOST OF AREA IN THE
06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME WHEREAS THE NAM IS QUITE BULLISH OVER MY
EAST CNTRL ZONES AND THE GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TARGET THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE MAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SUNDAY...THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH AS A SECOND UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WILL
LIKELY SEE A BREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
SHOWERS THEN LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CNTRL DAKOTAS SUN
AFTN. OVERALL TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY THE TIME THIS SECOND WAVE MOVES OUT ON
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN DAKOTAS AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO NORTHERN TIER
FROM THE SW. SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER MINNESOTA WITH INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP GOING
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA AND LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE NAMDNG GUIDANCE IS GOING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ND MON...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INVERTED
TROUGH...COULD SEE RAINFALL IMPACT TEMPS TO THAT DEGREE AND WILL
TREND TEMPS DOWN BUT NOT QUITE THAT DRASTIC YET AS MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR DAY 3.
MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS AND WE SHOULD SEE PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND GEM ARE QUICKER
(GEM IS THE FASTEST) IN ENDING PRECIP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE
GFS/ECMWF HOLD ON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SHOWALTERS BEGIN TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ALL BUT MY SOUTHEAST...SO CHANGED PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. LOOK FOR ACTIVITY
TO DECLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TUESDAY.
FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...IT SHOULD DRY OUT ON TUE WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FAR EAST MAINLY TUE MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE DRY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT IN ALL AREAS. BY THU AND
FRI...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH A
COOLER AIRMASS THAN WE HAVE HAD OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
FOG AT DVL WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING AND SITE SHOULD BE
VFR BY NOON. GFK/TVF WILL SEE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY AS SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN ND AND ADVECT INTO NW
MINNESOTA. FAR AND BJI WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTM...WITH
CELLS ARRIVING BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING MAINLY NIGHT TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM THE BEACHES TO THE VALLEYS FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH BREEZY WINDS AND FAIR SKIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
A WEAK SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS
KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL. MODELS ARE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE WINDS AND THERMAL SUPPORT...DESPITE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HOLDING NEAR YESTERDAYS LEVELS. 3-KM HRRR MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO A TAD WEAKER FOR THIS EVENING. LOCAL ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF AND NEAR
GAVIOTA.
OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE AXIS FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
SLIDES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM IS
STARTING TO PLAY INTO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST KLAX
AMDAR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS THINNING AS 1000-500
MB THICKNESS VALUES START TO RISE AS THE WEAK RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO PLAY FOR
SUNDAY BY REDUCING THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND COVERAGE SOMEWHAT
AND INTRODUCING A SLIGHT WARM-UP FOR SUNDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES TO SOUTHWEST OF LOS
ANGELES MOVES NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
INTO TUESDAY. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OUT IN THE DESERT
ON MONDAY AS THE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS DEVELOP AND COMBINE
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE A DRY STANCE WITH THE TROUGH...BUT A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR MONDAY AS
850 MB MIXING RATIO APPROACH 5 G/KG.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
ANOTHER TROUGH QUICKLY DIPS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH...REENFORCING ONSHORE FLOW AND ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED
DEEPER MARINE LAYER. A COOLING TREND LOOKS TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
CLIMB FOR LATE WEEK.
A FLAT RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR LATE WEEK AND SHOULD PROVIDE A
WARMING TREND WITH A THINNING MARINE LAYER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. A
JUNE GLOOM PATTERN COULD SET-UP ALONG THE COAST WITH ANY MARINE
LAYER CLOUDINESS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE
MARINE LAYER...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE WARM. LOCAL STUDIES SUGGEST
100 PLUS DEGREE TEMEPRATURES IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS...SUCH AS WOODLAND
HILLS...OJAI...AND SANTA CLARITA. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL IN
PLAY...THE PACKAGE DOES NOT TAKE SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE STANCE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...31/1800Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TAFS N OF PT CONCEPTION. IFR MARINE LAYER
CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 05Z BUT TIMING MAY DIFFER +/- 2 HRS
FROM TAF TIMES. 30% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDS FOR CENTRAL COAST SITES
OVERNIGHT...AND KPRB AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR COAST AND VALLEY SITES S OF PT CONCEPTION. 30%
CHANCE TIMING OF MARINE LAYER CIGS WILL DIFFER 2 HRS OR MORE FROM
TAF TIMES. AREAL COVERAGE IS LOW CERTAINTY AS LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
AFFECT THE VENTURA COAST...AND MAY MOVE INLAND TO THE L.A. VALLEY
SITES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BREEZY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z TODAY...BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z...WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS UNCERTAIN AND
A 20% CHANCE LOW CIGS WILL NOT AFFECT THE SITE.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS 13Z-16Z SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...31/200 PM.
A STABLE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
A SURFACE HIGH AROUND 1033 MB ABOUT 700 NM WEST OF THE OREGON
COAST AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE S OF LAS VEGAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH LOCALLY MODERATE
NW TO WEST WINDS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF SCA WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA BETWEEN SANTA ROSA ISLAND AND PT
CONCEPTION.
FOR INNER WATERS...LOW END SCA WINDS WILL AFFECT PZZ645 THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...ALONG WITH SHORT PERIOD SEAS 5 TO 7
FT AT 8 SECONDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEARSHORE. A WEAK CATALINA
EDDY WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...CAUSING SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
RESULT IN ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET AT 7 SECONDS ACROSS
PZZ650/655.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL
MARINE...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
440 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH THAN WHAT THE RAP AND WRF MODELS
HAVE INDICATED QPF WISE. CONVECTION AND QPF IN THE NAM MODEL MAY
BE A LITTLE OVERDONE BUT IS DEFINITELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN
THE DRIER HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. AIR MASS TRENDING TO A DRIER
REGIME TODAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...GRADIENT
FLOW...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR FOR SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF. A COUPLE OF STRONG CELLS HAVE FORMED IN MOFFAT
COUNTY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER.
UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TAKES
A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION THIS EVENING AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN
COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS EXPANDING AREAS OF QPF TONIGHT AS THIS
WAVE MOVES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO. QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOW
SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR NW COLORADO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
THIS FORCING IS FRACTURED. SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AT AROUND
25-35 MPH FROM THE SW TO NE.
ONCE THE WAVE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...WSW ADVECTS DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS INTO UTAH AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
NEARLY NON EXISTENT...MEANING DRY WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY POINTING TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOWERS AFTER WEDNESDAY
AS MODEL AGREEMENT LESSENS. AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE... LEAVING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND ACROSS WEST.
A PACIFIC UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 130W/30N THIS AFTERNOON GETS PULLED
INLAND ACROSS CA ON MONDAY...THEN TRACKS ACROSS NRN UT NWRN CO ON
TUE. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE...
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BUT...ITS PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME WINDIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY POSE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER WAVE COMING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BUT DIFFER ON SPEED AND ORGANIZATION.
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MTNS SHOWERS THU-SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 431 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
THIS EVENING NORTH OF A LINE FROM KCNY-KGJT-KMTJ-KGUC-KMYP. GUSTY
WINDS OF 30-35 KTS AND LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION HAZARD. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z
AND FINISHED BY 12Z. DRY WEATHER WITH NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUED VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION WITH RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH. THE
HIGHEST FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON
BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THESE CONDITIONS.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH THAN WHAT THE RAP AND WRF MODELS
HAVE INDICATED QPF WISE. CONVECTION AND QPF IN THE NAM MODEL MAY
BE A LITTLE OVERDONE BUT IS DEFINITELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN
THE DRIER HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. AIR MASS TRENDING TO A DRIER
REGIME TODAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...GRADIENT
FLOW...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR FOR SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF. A COUPLE OF STRONG CELLS HAVE FORMED IN MOFFAT
COUNTY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER.
UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TAKES
A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION THIS EVENING AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN
COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS EXPANDING AREAS OF QPF TONIGHT AS THIS
WAVE MOVES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO. QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOW
SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR NW COLORADO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
THIS FORCING IS FRACTURED. SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AT AROUND
25-35 MPH FROM THE SW TO NE.
ONCE THE WAVE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...WSW ADVECTS DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS INTO UTAH AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
NEARLY NON EXISTENT...MEANING DRY WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY POINTING TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOWERS AFTER WEDNESDAY
AS MODEL AGREEMENT LESSENS. AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE... LEAVING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND ACROSS WEST.
A PACIFIC UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 130W/30N THIS AFTERNOON GETS PULLED
INLAND ACROSS CA ON MONDAY...THEN TRACKS ACROSS NRN UT NWRN CO ON
TUE. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE...
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BUT...ITS PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME WINDIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY POSE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER WAVE COMING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BUT DIFFER ON SPEED AND ORGANIZATION.
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MTNS SHOWERS THU-SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z EVENING NORTH OF A
LINE OF KCNY- KGJT-KMTJ-KGUC-KMYP. GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35 KTS AND
LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD. ISOLATED
-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z AND FINISHED BY 12Z. DRY
WEATHER WITH NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. CONTINUED VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION WITH RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH. THE
HIGHEST FLOWS WERE OCCURRING IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE GUNNISON
BASIN IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH. VARIOUS FLOOD PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THESE CONDITIONS.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR ANY RIVERS OR STREAMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONSISTING OF AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW OVER TOP A STUBBORN CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN MS
VALLEY. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW RIDGES WAY TO THE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA BEFORE SHARPLY DIVING SOUTH INTO A
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS ON A SLOW SOUTHWARD PATH THAT WILL TAKE
IT TO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...HOWEVER THIS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN SOME "BLOW-OFF" CIRRUS INVADING OUR SKIES.
THE MORNING 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS WE HAVE A MOIST PROFILE THROUGH
THE EXTENT OF THE TROP WITH A MEASURED PW VALUES AROUND 1.75".
STEERING LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 400MB IS VERY LIGHT (VECTOR AVERAGE IS
JUST A SLIGHT PUSH FROM EAST TO WEST)...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORM MOTION
VECTORS ARE MAYBE 5-10KNOTS FROM EAST TO WEST...SO WILL BE LOOKING
FOR SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL CAPE WITH THE
MOIST SOUNDING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH (AT LEAST NOT TOO FAT A
PROFILE THROUGH ANY ONE LEVEL)...HOWEVER THE HIGH PW VALUE WILL
FAVOR EFFICIENT WATER LOADING OF THE STRONG CELLS WHICH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE FORECAST FOR YET
ANOTHER DAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING A WEAK EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS THIS RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE LOCAL GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND
RESULT IN SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE
THE STRUCTURE AND PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORMS THAT WE HAVE BECOME
ACCUSTOMED TO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR A QUICK INLAND PENETRATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED UP THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA...AND WILL SLOWLY
EVOLVE/TRANSLATE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE COLUMN SEEMS PRIMED FOR STORM
COVERAGE TO AGAIN BE NUMEROUS IN NATURE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR...
AND THINK STORMS WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME MOVING WEST TO THE COAST
TODAY (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SLOW). AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WATER LOADING
OF THE STRONG CELLS WILL STILL PROVIDE A LOCALIZED WIND
THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND INSIDE THE I-75 CORRIDOR (AFTER 4PM)
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR THE BEST UPDRAFTS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE...AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
LOCALLY RUN WRFARW GUIDANCE RUNS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND FEEL CONFIDENT WITH THE CURRENT
60-70% POPS IN THE GRIDS ALONG THE FAVORED ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE.
LEFTOVER STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING LATER THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE TYPICAL WARM
SEASON CALM PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
SUNRISE.
SUNDAY...
THE FINAL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TIGHTENS THE LOCAL
GRADIENT. A WEAK ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD THIS
RIDGE ADVANCE INTO THE PENINSULA DURING SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS MUCH MORE DEFINED ALOFT IN TERMS OF DRIER AIR...CAA. AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
ADDED TO THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AS DEVELOPING
SHALLOW SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THAT WILL THEN QUICKLY
TRANSLATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE STRONGER EAST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A MINIMUM OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND AND THEREFORE...WHILE EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO ADVANCE INTO HIGHLANDS/POLK/SUMTER COUNTIES...THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD
NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND FEEL THE THREAT FOR STRONGER CELLS
INLAND IS LOW.
EASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO REACH 15-20 BY
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS PLENTY OF MOMENTUM
TO PIN ANY SEABREEZE AT THE COAST OR EVEN PREVENT A DEFINED
SEA-BREEZE FROM EVEN BECOMING ESTABLISHED. WHAT WE ARE MORE LIKELY
TO SEE IS A LOCAL SLOWING OF THE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS
THE SEA-BREEZE UNSUCCESSFULLY ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP. THIS SLOWING
WHILE NOT AS EFFICIENT AT FOCUS AS AN ACTUAL BOUNDARY...WILL STILL
PROVIDE SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE TO ASSIST IN UPDRAFT FORMATION. WITH
THIS IN MIND FEEL THE BEST LATER DAY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...
AND THE BEST CHANCE AT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE INSIDE/WEST OF
THE I-75 CORRIDOR. KEEP THIS IN MIND IF HEADING TO THE BEACHES DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMEST TEMPS
(UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S) WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND THE I-75 CORRIDOR
WHEN THE LEAST MARINE INFLUENCE AND LATEST CONVECTIVE ARRIVAL ARE
EXPECTED. WELL INLAND THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD MOST PLACES UNDER THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
&&
.MID TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT STEADILY SOUTHWARD TO A LOCATION OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PROPEL A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY CONTINUING
TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY...COLUMN MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. AS A RESULT...WILL
SHOW POPS RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO 50/60
PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS OFFERING UP VARYING SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIODS...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN BOTH SHOW STRONGER DEEP
LAYER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AND AS A RESULT THEY KEEP THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND OUT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS WEAKER DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE TO HANG UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEK. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING
AWAY FROM SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH ARE PROGRESS SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR MOST OF THE
TERMINALS TO SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
STORM...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT. STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND
MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MID EVENING WITH GENERAL VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN
PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL FLOW ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASE TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 90 73 88 / 30 60 20 30
FMY 72 90 73 89 / 20 60 20 50
GIF 71 88 71 87 / 20 60 10 30
SRQ 72 90 73 89 / 40 60 30 40
BKV 69 91 70 87 / 30 60 10 30
SPG 75 88 75 87 / 40 60 30 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT Sat May 31 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight...
Thunderstorms have developed initially early this afternoon very
near where recent runs of the 3km HRRR and the 09Z run of our
local WRF-ARW expected - around the lower Apalachicola River and
Gulf County in the Florida Panhandle. As these models were the
basis of the updated forecast this morning, the forecast seems to
be on track for the next 6-12 hours. Additional thunderstorms are
developing along the Atlantic sea breeze in northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia, and should advance into eastern parts of our
area later this afternoon. Thunderstorms could linger into the
evening hours - particularly in southwest Georgia and the Florida
Big Bend. PoPs were kept higher in these eastern areas, with
scattered thunderstorms expected elsewhere. An isolated strong to
severe storm is not out of the question, especially near boundary
collisions where enhanced low-level convergence would be expected.
.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
The large scale amplified blocking pattern of recent days begins to
break down into a more progressive pattern thru the short term. The
CWA will be between upper low over Wrn Gulf of Mex and upper high
over SE Conus. However this low has gradually but steadily filled in
last 12 hrs as both systems continue to drop south and weaken with
low progressively replaced by a weak upper ridge extending Ewd from
Srn Plains to across the deep south by Mon night.
Sunday...at surface, building high along mid-Atlc coast with ridging
Swwd across NE Gulf region yielding increasing ESE flow sfc-H5 and
PWATs approaching 2 inches. Ahead of ridge, weak backdoor front will
be nudged SWWD into SE GA in the late morning and dropping into the
Big Bend in the aftn. Lacking upper forcing, mesoscale processes,
including the front, the sea breeze, and outflow clashes will
provide the primary forcing for convection and PoP distribution,
typical of summertime. The east coast sea breeze will once again
concentrate evening convection primarily across our SW GA zones.
Look for fairly evenly scattered convection with 60% PoPs daytime,
50-20% SW-NE evening POPs, highest near front. Inland high temps in
upper 80s, except mid 80s NE tier GA counties due to clouds assocd
with above boundaries.
Monday...as surface high builds further down the Ern seaboard to
Carolina coast by sundown, our 1000-700 mb winds back and increase
to moderate ELY over east half but remain light ESE over west half.
In addition, with backdoor front now south of CWA and ridge
strengthening, drier air will build in from the ENE pushing PWATs
below 1.3 inches Ern most counties by sunset (still around 1.7
inches Wrn counties). This should reduce convective coverage,
particularly across our eastern zones. 50-20% daytime and 30-0%
eve SW-NE POP gradients. Temperatures will be close to seasonal
norms. Inland highs in mid 80s, low mid 60s east to upper 60s
west.
.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The Wrn Gulf upper low will slide off the SW as the upper level
ridge moves east toward the Carolinas and upstream ridge begins to
build Newd into the Gulf region and deep south later on Tues thru
Wed. At surface, ridge across the SE region remains largely intact.
The upper ridge will gradually breakdown beginning on Thurs. So
lacking upper forcing especially thru Wed, expect a generally
summertime rainfall pattern of SE low level flow and wdly sct to
scattered convection determined largely by aftn/eve seabreeze and
outflow clashes rest of workweek. Looking longer term, a weak
surface low still appears to form across Bay of Campeche or Nrn
Yucatan Peninsula around Wed bears watching as moisture heads
towards our area beginning on Sat.
Will go with mainly aftn/eve 30-20% W-E POPs on Tues, 20-30% S-N Fri
and 30-40% Sat. Otherwise NIL POPS. Temperatures will be near Climo
with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday] An initial area of thunderstorm development
should affect ECP between 19-21Z. IFR VIS will be possible along
with some gusty winds. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are
expected. This was mostly handled in the other terminal forecasts
with a longer period of prevailing SHRA with VCTS, as timing and
location of thunderstorms is still a bit uncertain. VFR should
generally prevail outside of thunderstorms.
&&
.Marine...
Winds will generally be out of the east-southeast over the next
several days, veering to more directly onshore near the coast each
afternoon in the sea breeze. A ridge of high pressure will build
down the eastern seaboard and the gradient will become tight enough
for an easterly surge event Sunday night into Monday, which is now
expected to bring cautionary level winds and seas and borderline
advisory level winds Sunday overnight well offshore. As the ridge
settles further south, the gradient will weaken allowing winds and
seas to subside for the early part of the work week.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.
&&
.Hydrology...
With a summertime pattern well established across the region,
large scale flooding is not anticipated. As on most summer days,
isolated areas of heavy rain will be possible in some
thunderstorms. These may briefly produce flooding in poor drainage
areas and could cause sharp rises on the faster responding small
creeks and streams. Main stem rivers are expected to remain in
their banks.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 69 87 68 86 68 / 40 60 50 30 20
Panama City 72 86 72 84 72 / 20 50 40 40 20
Dothan 69 87 67 86 68 / 40 60 40 30 20
Albany 69 86 66 86 66 / 60 60 30 20 10
Valdosta 68 86 65 87 66 / 50 60 40 20 10
Cross City 68 87 67 86 66 / 40 60 30 20 10
Apalachicola 72 85 73 84 73 / 20 50 40 30 20
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight CDT tonight for Coastal Bay-
South Walton.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
550 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECTING SUBSTANTIAL LOW
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME AND BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN VICINITY OF OLD...CLOSED LOW THAT IS
MEANDERING OVER ARKANSAS. ALSO SEEING WEAK CONVECTION FORMING ALONG
NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS AND
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. OVERALL LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
FORCING REMAINS WEAK ACROSS EASTERN PART OF CWA...THUS CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG AND EAST OF KANSAS TURNPIKE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND SUB-SEVERE.
TONIGHT: SOME CONCERN ABOUT CONVECTION FORMING ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT
OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THAT CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED NORTH
AND WEST OF CWA. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL INCREASE
KINEMATIC FORCING THIS EVENING. QUICK PEEK AT NSSL WRF
ENSEMBLE/SSEF HINTING
AT A SMALL QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS KANSAS HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID-EVENING. SOME REFLECTION OF THIS SCENARIO
BEING INDICATED BY HRRR AS WELL...ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. REGARDLESS ALL THESE MESO
MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING...AS FLOW STARTS BACKING AS
STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY: FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS HIGH PLAINS...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO PANHANDLE. INITIAL STORM DEVELOP LIKELY WILL
BE WEST OF CWA WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED...BUT DIABATIC
HEATING ALONG DRYLINE WILL RAMP UP INSTABILITY BY MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...CONFIDENT
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE EXPLODING WEST OF THE CWA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH DRYLINE
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT GIVEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL CONGEAL INTO MCS...AND TRACK
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL 310-315 THETA
GRADIENT...GENERALLY ALONG I-70 AND EASTERN US 50 CORRIDORS. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 1500-2500J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND
35-50KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
MONDAY: LINGERING CONVECTION DEBRIS WILL IMPACT MAINLY EASTERN
PART OF CWA DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND LEFT
OVER MESO BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN MAINLY EAST WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
INCREASE LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES INTO THE 2000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH BULK SHEAR PROFILES AGAIN IN THE 35-50KT RANGE. MID-LEVEL
CAPPING AGAIN MAY BE A DETERRENT TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY: FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO CURRENT THINKING IS WEATHER WILL BE RATHER QUIET ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. FORECAST MODELS AGAIN
INDICATING THAT ANOTHER MCS COULD FORM WESTERN NEBRASKA/EASTERN
WYOMING AND MOVE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRACK APPEARS
FURTHER NORTH...SO MAY JUST BRUSH CWA.
SF
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SEVERAL REINFORCING SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO SUPPRESS SOUTHERN U.S.
RIDGE WITH TIME...THUS AREA LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION. GEFS DEPICTING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF EACH SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE...SO TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT KCNU THROUGH 01-02Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED
CENTERED AROUND 12Z BEFORE MIXING OUT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER
22Z ON SUNDAY WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 67 88 70 89 / 10 10 40 20
HUTCHINSON 66 89 69 89 / 20 10 50 20
NEWTON 66 87 68 88 / 10 10 50 20
ELDORADO 66 85 68 86 / 10 10 50 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 67 87 70 88 / 10 10 40 20
RUSSELL 67 91 67 88 / 20 40 70 10
GREAT BEND 66 91 67 89 / 20 40 70 10
SALINA 67 91 69 89 / 20 20 70 20
MCPHERSON 67 89 69 89 / 20 20 50 20
COFFEYVILLE 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 30
CHANUTE 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40
IOLA 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40
PARSONS-KPPF 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
339 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECTING SUBSTANTIAL LOW
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME AND BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO BUBBLE IN VICINITY OF OLD...CLOSED LOW THAT IS
MEANDERING OVER ARKANSAS. ALSO SEEING WEAK CONVECTION FORMING ALONG
NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS AND
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. OVERALL LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
FORCING REMAINS WEAK ACROSS EASTERN PART OF CWA...THUS CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG AND EAST OF KANSAS TURNPIKE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND SUB-SEVERE.
TONIGHT: SOME CONCERN ABOUT CONVECTION FORMING ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT
OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THAT CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED NORTH
AND WEST OF CWA. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL INCREASE
KINEMATIC FORCING THIS EVENING. QUICK PEEK AT NSSL WRF
ENSEMBLE/SSEF HINTING
AT A SMALL QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPING ACROSS KANSAS HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID-EVENING. SOME REFLECTION OF THIS SCENARIO
BEING INDICATED BY HRRR AS WELL...ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. REGARDLESS ALL THESE MESO
MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING...AS FLOW STARTS BACKING AS
STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY: FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS HIGH PLAINS...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO PANHANDLE. INITIAL STORM DEVELOP LIKELY WILL
BE WEST OF CWA WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED...BUT DIABATIC
HEATING ALONG DRYLINE WILL RAMP UP INSTABILITY BY MID-AFTERNOON.
WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...CONFIDENT
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE EXPLODING WEST OF THE CWA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH DRYLINE
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT GIVEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL CONGEAL INTO MCS...AND TRACK
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL 310-315 THETA
GRADIENT...GENERALLY ALONG I-70 AND EASTERN US 50 CORRIDORS. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 1500-2500J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND
35-50KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
MONDAY: LINGERING CONVECTION DEBRIS WILL IMPACT MAINLY EASTERN
PART OF CWA DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND LEFT
OVER MESO BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN MAINLY EAST WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
INCREASE LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES INTO THE 2000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH BULK SHEAR PROFILES AGAIN IN THE 35-50KT RANGE. MID-LEVEL
CAPPING AGAIN MAY BE A DETERRENT TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY: FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO CURRENT THINKING IS WEATHER WILL BE RATHER QUIET ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. FORECAST MODELS AGAIN
INDICATING THAT ANOTHER MCS COULD FORM WESTERN NEBRASKA/EASTERN
WYOMING AND MOVE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRACK APPEARS
FURTHER NORTH...SO MAY JUST BRUSH CWA.
SF
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SEVERAL REINFORCING SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO SUPPRESS SOUTHERN U.S.
RIDGE WITH TIME...THUS AREA LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION. GEFS DEPICTING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF EACH SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE...SO TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/MVRF TO IFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TOMORROW MORNING ARE MAIN ISSUES. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN PER LAST SEVERAL DAYS AT KCNU...WHILE A WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVERAGE IN CENTRAL KS.
CHANCES AT KRSL SHOULD WANE RAPIDLY AROUND 2300 UTC AS AXIS OF
WAVE PASSES. MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL
SATURATION DURING THE NIGHT...SO PLAYED LOW CLOUDS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE. APPEARS THAT MVFR WOULD BE LIKELY AROUND
DAYBREAK...WITH IFR POSSIBLE...SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. WITH INCREASE IN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND DAYBREAK...SHOULD SEE QUICKER MIXING AND GUSTY WINDS BY
MID MORNING AT MOST SITES. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 67 88 70 89 / 10 10 40 20
HUTCHINSON 66 89 69 89 / 20 10 50 20
NEWTON 66 87 68 88 / 10 10 50 20
ELDORADO 66 85 68 86 / 10 10 50 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 67 87 70 88 / 10 10 40 20
RUSSELL 67 91 67 88 / 20 40 70 10
GREAT BEND 66 91 67 89 / 20 40 70 10
SALINA 67 91 69 89 / 20 20 70 20
MCPHERSON 67 89 69 89 / 20 20 50 20
COFFEYVILLE 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 30
CHANUTE 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40
IOLA 67 85 70 84 / 20 10 50 40
PARSONS-KPPF 67 85 71 85 / 20 10 40 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1156 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOW DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE SAME AREA CO-LOCATED WITH THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES NORTHWARD TAKING THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
IT. HOWEVER WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
1/3 AHEAD OF A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES THERE. TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT CAUSING THE CINH TO INCREASE SO
WILL ALLOW PRECIP. CHANCES TO DECLINE AS A RESULT. MEANWHILE
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHERE A DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. WITH LIFT INCREASING OVER THE WEST AS THE DRY LINE
MOVES IN AND 700-500MB MIXING RATIOS ALSO INCREASING...AM THINKING
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE DRY LINE. WILL HAVE HIGHER
PRECIP. CHANCES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSES LOW STILL
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SW FLOW
EXTENDING OVER A LONG FETCH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN SW FLOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. AT
THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO JUST WEST OF THE
KS/CO STATE LINE. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY MATCHING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT/ACTIVE PATTERN AS SW FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND A LONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
AND TD VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 60F WILL ALSO LINGER.
I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANY
PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING DOES GENERALLY FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WHILE CAPE PROFILES COULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE SHORT
TERM...THE BEST SHEER IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN ORGANIZED
SUPER CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST).
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON (IF NAM SOLUTION WORKS OUT)...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. I BUMPED UP POPS/WINDS
(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY)...AND ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. I CONSIDERED DOING THE SAME FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER I AM LESS CONFIDENT ON MONDAYS PATTERN AT THIS
POINT. STILL WORTH MONITORING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH MID-WEEK TO DROP TEMPS DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM WEST
TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC. ALL GLOBAL
GUIDANCE IS IN SOLD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASPECT. A WEAK POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN...THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FINE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE STRENGTH/TIMING
IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT ON THE WHOLE THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE...PROBABLY
BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT AND A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ON
LATER IN THE WEEK.
TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH
850MB TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S C...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN THE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA /TRIBUNE AND LEOTI/ APPROACHING
TRIPE DIGITS. A STRONG DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE BEST ALONG/NORTH OF
I-70...THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM DESPITE DEW
POINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE LATE
TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT CAP HOLDING AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE LIMITATIONS SO
WILL KEEP POPS SUB-50 PERCENT FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOLER TEMPS.
SOME BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE
ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COLORADO MOVING NORTHEAST COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. LIMITED CAPE WILL PREVENT STRONG T-STORMS. CHANCE FOR RAIN
INCREASES THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN
FROM THE EAST SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR KGLD. CURRENT THINKING
IS TO HAVE THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE DRY
LINE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF KGLD BY 6Z.
KMCK SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON STORMS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR
KMCK...BUT THIS MAINLY OCCURS AFTER 18Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
307 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STAYED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED BARELY OUT OF THE AREA. THE
REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY BEFORE MOVING
BACK ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN IN THE
GRADIENT OF THETA E DISPLAY OF THE NAM AND I WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO
ACTUALLY CALL IT A WARM FRONT. THE NET RESULT WILL BE TO BRING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW AND THE ABOVE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLENDS FOR THE FORECASTS. EXPECT DRAY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL WAS PREDICTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES FROM 6 TO 9 PM
TONIGHT...HOWEVER CHOSE TO IGNORE THIS DUE TO THE LACK OF
ORGANIZATION SHOWING UP ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES CONFINED TO MAINLY TIMING
ISSUES.
ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE AREA. VERY FEW TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT SOME TERRAIN INDUCED BOUNDARIES MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WE
MAY SEE A LULL BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SKIRTING THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SHORTWAVE AFTER
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE PERIOD
FAIRLY UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY BROAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS TIMING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MAY
DIFFER QUITE A BIT. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR A WHILE WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR LOWER
VALLEY FOG AROUND NEAR DAWN TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z...WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. LOOK
FOR MORE MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A RENEWED PICKUP IN MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
156 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE TENDRILS OF FOG
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS RIGHT
ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW NUDGES PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EASING INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
BRINGING A DRIER AIR MASS TO THAT PART OF THE STATE. ON SATELLITE...A
WISP OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THIS TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS
DRIER AIR AND THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST...TOO...BUT MAINLY A
RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE IS NOTED THERE AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE VARIES MORE BROADLY WITH LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS FOUND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHILE MID 50S ARE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
ONE DEEP CLOSED LOW IS MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND
ANOTHER WEAKER ONE FILLING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN
TIME...THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER EAST KENTUCKY KEEPING ALL THE ENERGY
NORTH AND WEST OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE RIDGE DOES WEAKEN QUICKLY...
THOUGH...AS IT SINKS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BIT MORE MID LEVEL ENERGY TO SEEP INTO KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE
SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR MOST CLOSELY FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY VALLEY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...
BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY...QUIET...
AND WARM DAY UNDER RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW MORE
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SEEPS BACK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES LOCATED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT/ALL AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS. DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE TONIGHT FOR
MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LATER SUNDAY THROUGH THE CWA...OTHERWISE
KEPT THEM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES CONFINED TO MAINLY TIMING
ISSUES.
ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE AREA. VERY FEW TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT SOME TERRAIN INDUCED BOUNDARIES MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WE
MAY SEE A LULL BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SKIRTING THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SHORTWAVE AFTER
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE PERIOD
FAIRLY UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY BROAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS TIMING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MAY
DIFFER QUITE A BIT. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR A WHILE WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR LOWER VALLEY FOG
AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING...SOUTH AND WEST OF JKL WHERE THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LOWEST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 13Z...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR MORE MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A RENEWED PICKUP
IN MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1220 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEEKEND WEATHER. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY WEAK SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER
OVERHEAD IS BEING OVERCOME BY A SMALL BIT OF LIFTING VIS-A-VIS A
WEAK H5 WAVE DIAGNOSED BY THE RAP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
SLIDES SOUTHWARD...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD AGAIN FADE...AS IT
HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DO NORTH OF DUBOIS. REGARDLESS...NO SITE
WILL BECOME WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST
SITES MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY AT MOST TIMES. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK
TO BE HEADED IN EXACTLY THE SAME DIRECTION AS YESTERDAY. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW JERSEY WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH WIND SHEAR FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK WITH...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS
TO EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT MOVING
OVER LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO SHOULD STILL ALLOW THE CHANCE OF
RAIN TO CONTINUE. CURRENT MODEL TIMING SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS
IN ALL LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING...SCALING BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WERE RETAINED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PD GIVEN
EXPECTATIONS OF LIMITED SOUTHWARD FRONTAL PENETRATION UNDR A
FLATTENED RIDGE SCENARIO...WITH SHRTWV PROGRESSION OVR THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY IN SPPRT.
LONG TERM TEMPS ARE PROGGED AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
THIS FLOW PTN. WPC GUIDANCE SUFFICIENTLY REPRESENTED THE
SITUATION AND WAS ONLY MINIMALLY TWEAKED.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR AND LGT WND THROUGH TNGT.
.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS/RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A MON/TUE CDFNT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
547 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR...NAMELY THE 20 AND INCOMING 21
UTC RUNS...HAVE AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING BROKEN LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THUS...WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR POPS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER BETWEEN 02-04 UTC...SUSTAINED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THE CONVECTION MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AS IT CROSSES
THE BORDER. THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST A CONGEALING LINE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT...FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE STORMS
BEGIN TO PROPAGATE INTO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 06-07 UTC...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT
WITH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS. ACROSS
THE EAST MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT THINKING OF LOW/NIL THUNDERSTORM
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE WITH SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE MODEST. A
MORE POTENT SYSTEM IS FORMING IN MONTANA WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MESOSCALE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
BRING A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT AS A QLCS IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 04-06Z. WILL HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING WINDS
LATER TONIGHT WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST SUNDAY WITH A MORE LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
STATE...EXITING THE DEVILS LAKE AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER (HAIL/TORNADOES) IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. KEPT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MENTION OF SHOWERS DURING THIS
TIME...AND EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 1.00 INCH
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD.
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE REGIME WITH
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND KEEPING
NORTH DAKOTA UNDER A MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THUS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID-WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...LOOKING AT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS MAINLY 45 TO 55.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ARE
FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 02-04 UTC...AND HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO KISN AND KDIK TO HIGHLIGHT
THE BEST TIMING AND EXPECTED THREAT AT THIS TIME. STORMS MAY
APPROACH KMOT AND KBIS LATE...AND WILL MENTION AS VCTS FOR NOW.
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KBIS AND
KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA/JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
106 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
-SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY AFFECTING CSV WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD WESTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH VCSH AT CKV/BNA INTO EARLY EVENING.
AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY TO DIRECTLY
IMPACT AIRPORTS...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SCT CUMULUS AND
LIGHT EAST WINDS. SOME LIGHT FOG TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN MVFR VIS AT
CKV/CSV.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
UPDATE...
RADAR THIS MORNING INDICATES CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ON THE
PLATEAU WITH OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM FURTHER WEST
IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE FORMING OVER EASTERN ZONES THEN GRADUALLY
DEVELOP/SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE DAY...AS LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS.
WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO CHANCE AREAWIDE. LOWER LEVELS ON 12Z
OHX SOUNDING ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE OVER WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS SUGGESTS SOME
LOCATIONS SUCH AS NASHVILLE MAY TOUCH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. BASED ON
THIS AND LATEST OBS...RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY AREAWIDE AS WELL. ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT IT HAS LOST ITS IMPACT
ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE`S WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER, AN UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR EAST HAS STRENGTHENED SO THAT WE KEEP OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE.
LOOK FOR MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TODAY, WHICH WILL HANDLE WITH
VCSH REMARKS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING AS WARM
AND HUMID AIR HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH THESE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...STORMS REALLY
CAN DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...AS THEY HAVE THIS MORNING. AN APPARENT
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM STORMS YESTERDAY HAS HELPED TO INITIATE SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE PLATEAU. WILL KEEP A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT THE BULK OF TODAY`S ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH ANYWHERE NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA...SO THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY OF THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION WILL BE SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. NO WIND SHEAR
AND PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED CAPE MEANS DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES DURING EACH OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BEGIN TO SEE A CHANGE IN
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. WE FINALLY GET OUT FROM UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
BECOME VERY SUMMERLIKE /-8 TO -9 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 500MB/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS START SHOWING SIGNS OF SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT.
WHILE THERE REMAINS NO WIND SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...THE ENTRAINMENT OF
DRY AIR INTO SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPARK MORE OF A WIND
THREAT BY MID-WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A CHANCE POP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT AN INCREASE WIND THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WHILE THIS IS A WEAK FEATURE...ANY FORM
OF LIFT IN THIS WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SPELL MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BOTTOM LINE...THESE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...AND PUSHING 70 DEGREES BY MID-WEEK.
UNGER
AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING WITH
JUST SOME SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. FOG ALREADY
BRINGING IFR VIS TO CSV AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
CSV/CKV OVERNIGHT. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS. LIGHT EAST
WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1058 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
RADAR THIS MORNING INDICATES CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ON THE
PLATEAU WITH OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM FURTHER WEST
IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE FORMING OVER EASTERN ZONES THEN GRADUALLY
DEVELOP/SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE DAY...AS LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS.
WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO CHANCE AREAWIDE. LOWER LEVELS ON 12Z
OHX SOUNDING ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE OVER WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS SUGGESTS SOME
LOCATIONS SUCH AS NASHVILLE MAY TOUCH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. BASED ON
THIS AND LATEST OBS...RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY AREAWIDE AS WELL. ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT IT HAS LOST ITS IMPACT
ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE`S WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER, AN UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR EAST HAS STRENGTHENED SO THAT WE KEEP OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE.
LOOK FOR MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TODAY, WHICH WILL HANDLE WITH
VCSH REMARKS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING AS WARM
AND HUMID AIR HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH THESE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...STORMS REALLY
CAN DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...AS THEY HAVE THIS MORNING. AN APPARENT
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM STORMS YESTERDAY HAS HELPED TO INITIATE SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE PLATEAU. WILL KEEP A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT THE BULK OF TODAY`S ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH ANYWHERE NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA...SO THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY OF THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION WILL BE SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. NO WIND SHEAR
AND PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED CAPE MEANS DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES DURING EACH OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BEGIN TO SEE A CHANGE IN
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. WE FINALLY GET OUT FROM UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
BECOME VERY SUMMERLIKE /-8 TO -9 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 500MB/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS START SHOWING SIGNS OF SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT.
WHILE THERE REMAINS NO WIND SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...THE ENTRAINMENT OF
DRY AIR INTO SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPARK MORE OF A WIND
THREAT BY MID-WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A CHANCE POP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT AN INCREASE WIND THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WHILE THIS IS A WEAK FEATURE...ANY FORM
OF LIFT IN THIS WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SPELL MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BOTTOM LINE...THESE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...AND PUSHING 70 DEGREES BY MID-WEEK.
UNGER
AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING WITH
JUST SOME SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. FOG ALREADY
BRINGING IFR VIS TO CSV AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
CSV/CKV OVERNIGHT. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS. LIGHT EAST
WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
305 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRINGING WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO OUR REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS 500 MB
RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. DO NOT BELIEVE THE NAM CONVECTION WITH
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR THE NW NC MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A RESULT OF UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE HRRR HAS BACK OFF ON POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION...WHILE RNK-WRFARW...GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE FAVOR RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. BUT WITH
DRY AIR DO NOT EXPECT ANY DENSE FOG LIKE PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS.
WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AND PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT. USED ADJMAVBC FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH
VALUES FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...
INCREASING HUMIDITY THIS PERIOD AS SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD INTO SRN ONTARIO
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
FLATTEN AS A RESULT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...WITH SOME HINT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS
IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
GOING TO SEE SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE TUESDAY WITH A WAVE MOVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYS END. NOTICED
MODELS HINTING AT A POSSIBLE LINE OF CONVECTION PER ORIENTATION OF
THE UPPER FLOW AND THE PVA FORECAST. WITH ALL MODELS PAINTING MORE
QPF IN THE WEST TUESDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR...WITH 40-50 POPS TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND 30
POPS PIEDMONT.
LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WARM TO THE LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT...AS
DEWPOINTS HEAD INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER RIDGES OF THE WEST...TO LOWER
80S VALLEYS...AND MID 80S EAST...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 1-4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN MOS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY DRY...THINK AIRMASS
WILL HEAT UP FASTER WITH LESS CLOUDS.
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE WARMER ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT SINCE 8H
TEMPS PUSH FROM +13-16C MONDAY TO +16-18C TUESDAY. SHOULD ALSO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER WEST BUT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER TIMING OF
POSSIBLE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY IMPACT THE
TEMP RISE. ATTM...WE ARE GOING WITH LOWER TO MID 80S WEST...70S
HIGHEST RIDGES...TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.
THIS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE KY/VA BORDER BY 12Z WED. WILL LINGER CHANCE
POPS IN THE EVENING TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY..
GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN....AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALIGNS IN A WEST-EAST SETUP GIVEN FLATTER FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM BUT WILL BE IMPACTED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.
MODELS IN GENERAL IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALIGNED THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC WED-FRIDAY AND
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO VA BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY. TIMING ISSUES WITH
MODELS AND SHORTWAVES/ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ATTM...WILL KEEP
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST MAINTAINING HIGHER THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT-MORNING TIME
FRAME. LATEST 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY TRYING TO BUILD THE 5H RIDGE BACK
NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY NEXT SATURDAY WHICH BUCKLES THE FRONT
NORTH INTO MD/PA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
DIFFUSE BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THE PUNCH OF DRIER AIR HAS ERODE THE PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUD COVER BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE DRIER NE/E FLOW...DO NOT
EXPECT DENSE FOG LIKE PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN A FEW RIVER VALLEYS. LWB HAS THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF MORNING
FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY.
WINDS NE-SE AROUND 8-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NE U.S. ON SUNDAY...WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE NEXT CHANCE
AT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING POPS INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE BLF OBSERVATION WILL REMAIN UNAVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
BECAUSE OF A COMMS ISSUE. WE ARE STILL ABLE TO DIAL INTO THE SITE.
HOWEVER...THE BLF TAF WILL REMAIN AMD NOT SKED UNTIL THE COMMS
ISSUE IS RESOLVED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...RAB/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
327 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTN AND EVENING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...MAINLY DUE TO THE MARGINAL FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS IS STILL RATHER MARGINAL TO GET
STORMS MORE ORGANIZED INTO SUPERCELLS. A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE CHUGWATER AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR AND HAVE NOT REALLY
STRENGTHENED AS IT PUSHED OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT
THE BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40 KTS BY AROUND 00Z AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO WESTERN WY. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM
THE TROUGH IS GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR
MODEL SHOWS INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS OVER PLATTE AND CONVERSE
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN THAT MERGE INTO A LINE/MULTICELL CLUSTER
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE SVR
WORDING WITH LARGE HAIL IN THE GRIDS SINCE CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE BY THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS WY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY SUN AFTN.
SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO HAVE
MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY 18Z SUN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST. THE DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
COMPARED TO THIS AFTN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MOIST IT
WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND THE MORE MOIST NAM IN THE MID
50S. TEND TO THINK THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA IN THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR EASTERN ZONES
SINCE WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGER AND BULK SHEAR ARE 40-45 KTS. SPC
HAS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
WYOMING MONDAY. FOR THE MOST PART...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR DRIEST
DAY. LATEST NAM/WRF IS SHOWING SOME POPS DOWN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING. DO THINK FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH THAT
EVERYONE WILL BE DRY.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...GFS SHOWING AN 80 TO 85KT JET TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
WYOMING...WITH MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FAVORABLE LFQ
OF THE JET. SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS CONVERSE...NIOBRARA COUNTIES
IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. SINCE IT HAS
BEEN SHOWING THIS SETUP FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS. SEVERE CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS JET SAGS SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH. STRONGER SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF VERY SIMILAR ON WHERE POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
FRIDAY EVENING. COULD BE OUR NEXT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE AT
THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND AFTER 23Z FOR OUR
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. SOME QUESTION ON CAPPING INHIBITING
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LATEST HRRR FORECAST
SUGGESTS THAT KSNY AND MAYBE KBFF WILL STAY DRY. DO THINK WE STILL
HAVE A CHANCE AND ADDED VCTS TO THESE TAFS AFTER 23Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE 00Z TAFS. SHOULD NOT SEE THE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT WE SAW THIS MORNING FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
SUN MORNING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST
WINDS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH
PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS MOISTURE DECREASES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES
BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
HYDROLOGY...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1100 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
CHANCE OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD FOR
THIS AFTN. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH GOOD SFC HEATING. THE RUC MODEL INDICATES
SBCAPES OF 1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTN WITH BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT
WEAK LLVL SHEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL OVER THE FAR EAST PARTS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL EXIT SHORTLY AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES ON
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME CLEARING NOTED OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
EDGE EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ON BATCH OF ENERGY EJECTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKYS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF WILL INCREASE UPPER WINDS OVER THE CWA
TODAY AND WITH LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGHER
TODAY. THE CLEARING THAT HAS OCCURRED WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARMING
OVER PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY THUS SHOULD SEE MORE INSTABILITY FOR
THE PRODUCTION OF WDLY SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EAST INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WITH HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO PERSIST LONGER
TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE.
SUNDAY A LITTLE MORE TRICKY AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH A MODEST FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH
A BIT DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE NUDGED TO
THE EAST BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE PANHANDLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH MONDAY LOOKING MAINLY
DRY AND MILD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING THE FORECAST AREA BEING THE CONFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY MESSY SO VERY TOUGH TO TIME
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE ALMOST
EVERY DAY THERE WILL BE A SHOT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES IN
THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NORM BUT ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EAST. CURRENTLY THE MODELS MOSTLY
KEEPING THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES ON THE DRIER SIDE OF
THINGS...WHICH IF CORRECT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SLOWER
SNOWMELT...ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
CONVECTION TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND AFTER 23Z FOR OUR
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. SOME QUESTION ON CAPPING INHIBITING
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LATEST HRRR FORECAST
SUGGESTS THAT KSNY AND MAYBE KBFF WILL STAY DRY. DO THINK WE STILL
HAVE A CHANCE AND ADDED VCTS TO THESE TAFS AFTER 23Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE 00Z TAFS. SHOULD NOT SEE THE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT WE SAW THIS MORNING FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NON-
CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. TODAY SHOULD SEE THE
LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER AND
EAST OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR WILL ACT TO REDUCE ACTIVITY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2014
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER NORTH
PLATTE...AND LARAMIE RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND
SNOWY RANGES BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...RE